帕卡 (PCAR) 2020 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to PACCAR's Fourth Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Today's call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

早安，歡迎參加帕卡公司2020年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作說明）本次電話會議正在錄音。 （操作說明）

I would now like to introduce Mr. Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. Mr. Hastings, please go ahead.

現在我謹介紹帕卡公司投資者關係總監肯‧黑斯廷斯先生。黑斯廷斯先生，請開始。

Good morning. We would like to welcome those listening by phone and those on the webcast. My name is Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. And joining me this morning are Preston Feight, Chief Executive Officer; Harrie Schippers, President and Chief Financial Officer; and Michael Barkley, Senior Vice President and Controller.

早安.歡迎各位透過電話和網路直播收聽節目的朋友們。我是PACCAR投資者關係總監肯‧黑斯廷斯。今天早上與我一同出席的還有執行長普雷斯頓·費特、總裁兼首席財務官哈里·希珀斯以及高級副總裁兼財務總監邁克爾·巴克利。

As with prior conference calls, we ask that any members of the media on the line participate in a listen-only mode. Certain information presented today will be forward-looking and involve risks and uncertainties, including general economic and competitive conditions that may expect -- may affect expected results. For additional information, please see our SEC filings in the Investor Relations page of paccar.com

與以往的電話會議一樣，我們要求所有參與電話會議的媒體成員以僅收聽模式參與。今天公佈的部分資訊屬於前瞻性訊息，涉及風險和不確定性，包括可能影響預期結果的總體經濟和競爭狀況。更多信息，請訪問paccar.com網站的“投資者關係”頁面，查看我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。

I would now like to introduce Preston Feight.

現在我來介紹普雷斯頓費特。

Hey, good morning, everyone. Harrie Schippers, Michael Barkley, and I will update you on our good fourth quarter and full year 2020 results as well as provide you an update on other business highlights.

大家好，早安。我和哈里·希珀斯、邁克爾·巴克利將向大家報告我們2020年第四季和全年的良好業績，並介紹其他業務亮點。

First, I really appreciate our outstanding PACCAR employees around the world. Their focus on safety and health throughout the pandemic continues to be outstanding as they deliver the highest quality trucks and transportation solutions to our customers.

首先，我衷心感謝帕卡集團遍佈全球的優秀員工。在疫情期間，他們始終將安全和健康放在首位，並持續為客戶提供最優質的卡車和運輸解決方案，這種精神令人欽佩。

In 2020, we PACCAR achieved annual revenues of $18.7 billion and good net income of $1.3 billion. PACCAR's performance benefited from a recovery in truck demand to normal levels in the second half of the year and strong performance from our trucks, parts and financial services divisions.

2020年，PACCAR實現了187億美元的年收入和13億美元的淨利。 PACCAR的業績得益於下半年卡車需求恢復正常水平，以及卡車、零件和金融服務部門的強勁表現。

PACCAR has achieved 82 consecutive years of net income. The company has paid a dividend every year since 1941, and has delivered annual dividends of approximately half of net income for many years. In 2020, PACCAR declared dividends of $1.98 per share. PACCAR's fourth quarter revenues were $5.6 billion, and fourth quarter net income increased to $406 million. PACCAR parts achieved fourth quarter revenues of $1.70 billion and record pretax profits of $223 million, which was an 8% increase compared to the same period last year.

帕卡集團已連續82年實現淨利。自1941年以來，該公司每年都派發股息，並且多年來股息總額約為淨利潤的一半。 2020年，帕卡集團宣布每股股息1.98美元。帕卡集團第四季營收為56億美元，淨利增至4.06億美元。帕卡集團零件業務第四季營收為17億美元，稅前利潤創下2.23億美元的新高，較去年同期成長8%。

PACCAR delivered 40,700 trucks during the fourth quarter compared to $36,000 in the third quarter. In the first quarter of 2021, we expect deliveries to be 10% higher than the fourth quarter due to stronger markets and higher customer demand for Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF's great trucks.

PACCAR第四季交付了40,700輛卡車，而第三季為36,000輛。由於市場走強以及客戶對肯沃斯、彼得比爾特和達夫優質卡車的需求增加，我們預計2021年第一季的交付量將比第四季增加10%。

In 2020, U.S. and Canadian Class 8 truck retail sales were 216,500 units. Kenworth and Peterbilt's combined Class 8 market share increased to 30.1%, and medium-duty share increased to a record 22.6%. For 2021, the U.S. economy and industrial production are projected to expand by about 4%. The strengthening economy, low fuel prices and high volumes of freight are good for the truck industry. We estimate the 2021 U.S. and Canada Class 8 truck market to increase to a range of 250,000 to 280,000 vehicles. European above 16 tonne truck registrations were 230,500 last year, and DAF achieved strong market share of 16.3%.

2020年，美國和加拿大8級卡車零售銷售量為21.65萬輛。肯沃斯和彼得比爾特兩大品牌合計8級卡車市佔率增至30.1%，中型卡車市佔率更是創下22.6%的歷史新高。預計2021年美國經濟和工業生產將成長約4%。經濟走強、燃料價格走低以及貨運量大，對卡車業而言都是利多消息。我們預計2021年美國和加拿大8級卡車市場規模將成長至25萬至28萬輛。去年，歐洲16噸以上卡車註冊量為23.05萬輛​​，其中達夫卡車市佔率高達16.3%。

In 2021, the European economies are projected to continue growing, and we expect the above 16-tonne truck registrations to increase to a range of 250,000 to 280,000. The South American above 16-tonne truck industry registrations were 93,000 last year. In Brazil, DAF increased its share of the greater than 16-tonne market from 4.3% to a record 5.7%.

預計2021年歐洲經濟將持續成長，我們預計16噸以上卡車的註冊量將增加至25萬至28萬輛。去年南美洲16噸以上卡車的註冊量為9.3萬輛。在巴西，DAF在16噸以上卡車市場的份額從4.3%增長至創紀錄的5.7%。

In 2021, the South American market is expected to increase to a range of 100,000 to 110,000 units. Truck and parts gross margins were 12.6% in the fourth quarter. We estimate first quarter truck and parts gross margins to increase to around 13.5%. PACCAR takes a rigorous approach to controlling costs throughout all phases of the business cycle and continues to deliver industry-leading margins.

預計2021年南美市場銷量將成長至10萬至11萬輛。第四季卡車及零件毛利率為12.6%。我們預計第一季卡車及零件毛利率將成長至13.5%左右。 PACCAR在整個業務週期中都採取嚴格的成本控制措施，並持續保持業界領先的利潤率。

Last week, we announced a strategic partnership with Aurora, a leader in autonomous driving technology. This partnership will integrate PACCAR's autonomously enabled truck platform with the Aurora self-driving sensor and software system. The goal of this collaboration is to create a commercially viable autonomous truck that enhances safety and operational efficiency for PACCAR's customers.

上週，我們宣布與自動駕駛技術領域的領導者Aurora建立策略夥伴關係。此次合作將把PACCAR的自動駕駛卡車平台與Aurora的自動駕駛感測器和軟體系統整合。合作的目標是打造一款具有商業可行性的自動駕駛卡車，以提升PACCAR客戶的安全性和營運效率。

PACCAR's 0-emission vehicles continue to lead the industry. Our 0-emissions vehicles have accumulated nearly 500,000 miles. Peterbilt, Kenworth and DAF battery electric trucks are beginning production in the second quarter of this year, and we're continuing in the development of hydrogen fuel cell powered 0-emissions vehicles.

帕卡集團的零排放車輛繼續引領業界。我們的零排放車輛累積行駛里程已接近50萬英里。彼得比爾特、肯沃斯和達夫的純電動卡車將於今年第二季開始投產，我們也持續研發氫燃料電池動力零排放車輛。

Last year, PACCAR was again recognized as a global leader in environmental practices by the reporting firm, CDP, which places PACCAR in the top 15% of over 9,500 reporting companies. And the Women in Trucking Organization awarded our PACCAR corporate office, Peterbilt, Kenworth, PACCAR Parts and Dynacraft as a top place for women to work.

去年，PACCAR再次被環境報告機構CDP評為全球環境實踐領導者，在9,500多家報告公司中排名前15%。此外，女性卡車運輸組織（Women in Trucking Organization）也授予PACCAR公司總部、彼得比爾特（Peterbilt）、肯沃斯（Kenworth）、PACCAR零件和戴納克拉夫特（Dynacraft）「女性最佳工作場所」的稱號。

Kenworth and Peterbilt received a total of 5 manufacturing leadership awards from the National Association of Manufacturers and the DAF XF are in the Fleet Truck of the Year 2020 award in the United Kingdom.

Kenworth 和 Peterbilt 共獲得美國國家製造商協會頒發的 5 項製造業領導力獎，而 DAF XF 則入圍了 2020 年英國年度車隊卡車獎。

There are a multitude of exciting things happening around PACCAR. And Harrie Schippers will now provide an update on PACCAR Parts, PACCAR Financial Services and PACCAR's Investments in future growth. Harrie?

PACCAR 近期發生了許多令人振奮的事情。接下來，Harrie Schippers 將為大家介紹 PACCAR 零件業務、PACCAR 金融服務以及 PACCAR 對未來成長的投資情況。 Harrie，您好！

Thanks, Preston. In 2020, PACCAR Parts generated excellent annual revenues of more than $3.9 billion and annual pretax profit of $799 million. Fourth quarter parts revenues were a record $1.07 billion, and quarterly pretax profit was a record $223 million.

謝謝，普雷斯頓。 2020年，PACCAR零件業務取得了優異的業績，年營收超過39億美元，稅前利潤達7.99億美元。第四季零件營收創下10.7億美元的紀錄，季度稅前利潤也創下2.23億美元的紀錄。

One of the great things about PACCAR Parts is that it provides steady profitability through all phases of the business cycle. PACCAR has increased market shares over the years, resulting in a greater number of truck and powertrain parts opportunities. PACCAR Parts' excellent long-term growth reflects investments in distribution and technology. PACCAR Parts has expanded its global network to 18 distribution centers and is currently constructing another facility in Louisville, Kentucky. PACCAR Parts' investment and leadership and e-commerce technologies proved valuable last year as e-commerce, retail sales increased by 25%.

PACCAR Parts 的一大優勢在於其在整個商業週期中都能保持穩定的獲利能力。多年來，PACCAR 的市場份額不斷增長，從而帶來了更多卡車和動力總成零件的商機。 PACCAR Parts 的卓越長期成長得益於其在分銷和技術方面的投資。 PACCAR Parts 已將其全球網路擴展至 18 個分銷中心，目前正在肯塔基州路易斯維爾建造另一個分銷中心。去年，PACCAR Parts 的投資、領導地位以及電子商務技術都展現了卓越的價值，其電子商務零售額成長了 25%。

In 2021, we estimate Part sales to grow by 7% to 9%. PACCAR Financial Services achieved 2020 annual revenues of $1.57 billion; annual pretax income of $223 million and portfolio assets of $15.8 billion. The percentage of PACCAR truck sales financed by PACCAR Financial Services increased from 25% to 28% last year. The portfolio continues to perform well with low past dues and low credit losses.

我們預計2021年零件銷售額將成長7%至9%。 PACCAR金融服務公司2020年全年營收達15.7億美元，稅前利潤為2.23億美元，資產組合規模達158億美元。去年，PACCAR卡車銷售中由PACCAR金融服務公司提供融資的比例從25%增加到28%。此資產組合表現良好，逾期率和信貸損失率均較低。

Pretax finance income increased from $55 million in the third quarter to $64 million in the fourth quarter. PACCAR financial added used truck centers in Denton, Texas; Leon, France and Prague Czech Republic last year. And we'll open a new used truck center in Madrid, Spain this year.

稅前財務收入從第三季的5,500萬美元增至第四季的6,400萬美元。去年，PACCAR金融在德克薩斯州丹頓、法國萊昂和捷克共和國布拉格新增了二手卡車中心。今年，我們還將在西班牙馬德里開設一家新的二手卡車中心。

Across PACCAR, last year, we invested $570 million in capital and $274 million in R&D. In 2021, we're planning to increase capital investments to the range of $575 million to $625 million, and R&D expenses will grow to be in the range of $350 million to $375 million. These capital and R&D projects will develop the next-generation of fuel-efficient diesel powertrains, 0-emissions vehicles as well as advanced driver assistance systems, autonomous vehicles, connected services, and cutting-edge manufacturing capabilities. PACCAR has started 2021 with strong momentum. The truck and parts businesses are growing. Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF market share is increasing, and we're investing in new trucks and technologies that will deliver enhanced operational efficiency, safety and environmental benefits to our customers. Thank you. We'd be pleased to answer your questions.

去年，PACCAR集團在資本方面投入了5.7億美元，在研發方面投入了2.74億美元。 2021年，我們計劃將資本投資增加到5.75億美元至6.25億美元，研發支出也將成長到3.5億美元至3.75億美元。這些資本和研發項目將用於開發下一代高效節能柴油動力系統、零排放車輛以及先進的駕駛輔助系統、自動駕駛車輛、連網服務和尖端製造能力。 PACCAR集團2021年開局強勁。卡車和零件業務正在成長。肯沃斯、彼得比爾特和達夫的市佔率不斷擴大，我們正在投資研發新型卡車和技術，以提升客戶的營運效率、安全性和環保效益。謝謝。我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from Joel Tiss with BMO.

（操作說明）我們的第一個問題來自 BMO 的 Joel Tiss。

Can you talk a little bit about -- I think your European market share hit 17% at some point, and now it's a little more than 15%. Can you just talk about what's going on there?

能稍微談談嗎？我記得貴公司在歐洲的市佔率一度達到17%，現在略高於15%。能談談這方面的情況嗎？

Sure. The record we've had in Europe was 16.7%. This is actually our second best year in our history. So that's up a tenth from last year, and we have strong momentum as we enter into the 2021 time frame. So it's really a good year for the European team in market share. And we have market leadership in a number of countries, including Great Britain, a lot of countries in Eastern Europe, and we grew share in principal markets like France as well.

當然。我們在歐洲的最高紀錄是16.7%。這其實是我們歷史上第二好的年份。比去年增長了0.1個百分點，而且我們進入2021年時勢頭強勁。所以對於歐洲團隊來說，今年在市場佔有率方面確實取得了不錯的成績。我們在包括英國在內的多個國家以及許多東歐國家都佔據了市場領先地位，在法國等主要市場的份額也有所增長。

All right. And I have a lot of questions. So maybe I'll just try to glue 2 together to cheat a little bit here. The size of the -- can you talk a little bit about the size of the EV market today and maybe in 2025 or a couple of years down the road? And what are examples of next-gen manufacturing and distribution? I was trying to think of what you meant there, but I couldn't figure it out. And then I'll leave it to everyone else.

好的。我有很多問題。所以，我可能要先把兩個問題拼在一起，稍微作弊一下。您能談談目前電動車市場的規模，以及2025年或未來幾年的規模嗎？還有，下一代製造和分銷模式有哪些例子？我一直在想您剛才說的意思，但沒想明白。剩下的就交給其他人來回答吧。

Thanks. Well, let's talk about the electric vehicles or 0-emissions vehicles first. If we look at the world around us right now, the most important thing that we're doing at PACCAR is having the right technologies in place. So we've spent considerable amount of time and energy bringing to market battery electric vehicles that fit the 0-emissions class, both in Europe and North America, both for our medium-duty and our heavy-duty products. And the key there is making sure we have the right technology and the right leverage for those products as we move forward. So we've done a good job with that. As we shared last time, we announced the sale of the product. And now we're going to production with those trucks beginning in the second quarter. As far as volumes go of those, as we shared last time, we expect that the industry will have volumes in the hundreds in the coming year or 2. And then as we get to the 2025 time frame, like you referenced, that might grow into the thousands. And we would expect that we'll have a good market share representation as the industry comes along. The most important thing, again, right now is make sure we have great technology. And I got to say, I'm really excited about the products we're bringing to market. So on the second point of advanced manufacturing. What we're really talking about there is how we have a connected factory. So if we look at how the factory works together, what kind of data analytics we're sharing within the -- in the factories, how the robotics work together and making sure that we just enhance to an even higher degree are already excellent equality.

謝謝。好的，我們先來談談電動車或零排放車。放眼當今世界，PACCAR 最重要的工作就是確保擁有合適的技術。因此，我們投入了大量的時間和精力，致力於在歐洲和北美市場推出符合零排放標準的電池電動車，涵蓋我們的中型和重型卡車產品。關鍵在於確保我們擁有合適的技術和優勢，才能推動這些產品的發展。在這方面，我們做得很好。正如上次所說，我們已經宣布了該產品的銷售。現在，我們將從第二季開始投產這些卡車。至於產量，正如上次所說，我們預計未來一兩年內，該行業的產量將達到數百輛。而到了 2025 年，正如您所提到的，產量可能會成長到數千輛。我們預計隨著行業的發展，我們將佔據良好的市場份額。再次強調，目前最重要的是確保我們擁有卓越的技術。我必須說，我對我們即將推向市場的產品感到非常興奮。關於先進製造的第二個要點，我們真正要討論的是如何打造互聯工廠。如果我們審視工廠內部的協同運作方式，以及我們在工廠內部共享的數據分析，還有機器人如何協同工作，並確保我們能夠進一步提升現有卓越水平，那麼我們就能更好地實現這些目標。

And I think just to add to that, our new paint shop in Chillicothe, Ohio that will open this year is an excellent example of that. So on top of the things that Preston said, it also will be a lot more environmental friendly. It will be the most modern campaign facility in the industry.

而且我認為，今年即將開業的位於俄亥俄州奇利科西的新噴漆車間就是一個很好的例子。除了普雷斯頓提到的那些優點之外，它還將更加環保。它將成為業界最現代化的噴漆車間。

Our next question comes from Rob Wertheimer with Melius Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Rob Wertheimer。

My question is on gross margin, and thank you for the outlook in the 1Q. You're improving from the 3Q, 4Q levels into 1Q. Can you describe what the dynamic is? Is that maybe there's quantifiable COVID supply chain or otherwise costs that are fading? Maybe it's mix, maybe it's pricing. What was weighing on the last half of '20 and what's getting better?

我的問題是關於毛利率的，感謝您對第一季的展望。您提到第一季的毛利率較第三季和第四季有所改善。您能否解釋一下其中的原因？是因為新冠疫情導致的供應鏈或其他成本下降嗎？還是產品組合調整或定價策略的調整？ 2020年下半年哪些因素對毛利率造成了影響，而現在又有哪些因素正在改善？

Sure. I'm happy to take that. The biggest thing that's affecting gross margins is being in this global pandemic. And the fact that we have made sure rigorously that safety of our employees is the most important priority for ourselves. That's #1, #2 and #3. So there is additional costs associated with that for us, but not just for us, it also goes along with the supply base. So that has obviously had some margin impact to us. There is raw material pricing effects that we're seeing as we see the economies recover on a global level. And we're at this different point in the cycle than we have been. We're just starting to see the truck market recovery. And so that has an impact as well. Harrie?

當然，我很樂意接受這個答案。影響毛利率的最大因素是這場全球疫情。我們始終將員工安全放在首位，這是我們最重要的考量。這才是最重要的。因此，這給我們帶來了額外的成本，而且不僅僅是我們，供應鏈也受到了影響。所以，這顯然對我們的利潤率產生了一定的影響。隨著全球經濟的復甦，我們也看到了原物料價格上漲的影響。我們現在所處的周期階段與以往不同。我們剛開始看到卡車市場的復甦。所以，這也會產生影響。哈里？

Yes. So we're improving to 13.5% in the first quarter is a nice improvement. And it's been -- we're -- we continue to achieve the highest margins in the industry.

是的。第一季利潤率提升至13.5%，這是一個不錯的進步。而且，我們一直保持著業界最高的利潤率。

And is there anything from the COVID that you've got straightened out? I mean, obviously, in 6 months, hopefully, this is irrelevant. I understand that. But I mean, I'm just a little bit curious if there's anything sort of driving the sequential, and I'll stop there.

疫情期間，有沒有什麼事情是你們已經解決的？我的意思是，當然，希望六個月後，這些都無關緊要了。我明白這一點。但我只是有點好奇，有沒有什麼因素在推動這個系列的推出，我就說到這裡吧。

Figured out -- and again, the most important thing is safety. And so we have figured that out. We've been able to provide a great safe environment for our people. And that's been the most important priority for us.

我們已經找到了解決方案——再次強調，安全是最重要的。我們已經為員工提供了一個安全良好的工作環境。這始終是我們最優先考慮的事項。

Our next question comes from Tim Thein with Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的提姆·泰恩。

Now just maybe to take that gross margin question a step further and thinking beyond the first quarter. Typically, there's -- there can be impacts, I think, especially at kind of early stages of an up cycle like this, or you have some customer mix impacts in the first quarter, whether it's dealers placing more stock orders and maybe get a little bit heavier small customer sales flowing into that first quarter, whereas you get some of the larger fleets start to take delivery in the spring. So is that -- would you expect that to be a -- just as we think about first quarter impacts potentially moving beyond. Is that meaningful? Or is it just kind of gets washed out?

現在，我們不妨更進一步探討毛利率問題，考慮一下第一季之後的情況。通常來說，尤其是在像現在這樣的上升週期初期，可能會受到一些影響，例如第一季度客戶結構的變化，經銷商可能會增加庫存訂單，導緻小客戶銷售額在第一季度有所增長，而一些大型車隊則會在春季開始提車。那麼，您是否認為第一季的影響會持續到之後？這種影響是否顯著？還是會被其他因素抵消？

I think there's a lot of factors that play into, what, the second, third, fourth quarter will be. It will depend on the strength of recovery and how the market continues. You mentioned some good points. Those are true things that mix can have an effect on things. We've also seen some of the larger customers be the people that continued buying in the fourth quarter and through the first quarter. So there's offsetting factors in that.

我認為影響第二、第三、第四季業績的因素有很多。這取決於經濟復甦的力道以及市場的持續走向。您提到的幾點都很有道理。這些因素確實會對業績產生影響。我們也看到一些大客戶在第四季以及第一季都保持了購買量。所以這裡面存在一些相互抵消的因素。

Okay. Good. Preston, I was interested to see the -- maybe you've disclosed it before, but the comment that you included in the release on the T680, fuel cell electric, having a 350 mile range. I'm just curious and, obviously, I would assume that you would expect that over time to probably not stay at that level and potentially increase. But I guess the question is, what -- do you have a sense for what -- maybe what percentage of either your truckload or, I don't know, that potentially LTL customer base? Is -- what could that be relevant to in terms of just -- obviously, the trend over time has been towards more of a shorter length of haul. So I guess I'm just curious, what percent of the customer set do you think a 350-mile range vehicle could be relevant to?

好的。普雷斯頓，我對你在新聞稿中提到的T680燃料電池電動卡車350英里的續航里程很感興趣——也許你之前已經透露過。我只是好奇，當然，我猜你也認為隨著時間的推移，這個續航里程可能不會一直保持在這個水平，而是會不斷提高。但我想問的是，你是否了解，在你的整車運輸客戶群，或者零擔運輸客戶群中，有多少比例的客戶會需要這種續航里程的卡車？顯然，隨著時間的推移，運輸距離一直在縮短。所以我很好奇，你認為350英里續航里程的卡車對多少比例的客戶群來說是有意義的？

Yes. What I would say is that the technologies that are being evaluated right now, batteries and fuel, so both have capacity to expand range, just takes more batteries or take more fuel cells. So range is really about how much space you take up on the truck. And the energy density at this point in time is higher for fuel cells, for hydrogen fuel cells. So that's an advantage they have. Of course, both types of solutions need infrastructure development and infrastructural development, and how close charging stations are for either system will decide how much range you need on the vehicle. So I think it's a little early to tell what's going to happen and which technology will play out in which markets.

是的。我想說的是，目前正在評估的電池和燃料電池技術都有提升續航里程的潛力，只是需要更多的電池或燃料電池。所以，續航里程其實取決於車輛佔用的空間大小。目前，燃料電池，尤其是氫燃料電池的能量密度更高，這是它們的優點。當然，這兩種解決方案都需要基礎建設，充電站的分佈也會影響車輛的續航里程。因此，現在預測未來發展趨勢以及哪種技術會在哪些市場佔據主導地位還為時過早。

Our next question comes from the line of Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的妮可·德布萊斯。

Maybe just starting with a little bit more detail around the commentary on 1Q, the 10% forecasted increase in production. Can you guys just talk about is that kind of across geographies? Any comment you have on U.S. versus Europe versus rest of world?

或許我們可以先詳細談談第一季的業績，特別是預測產量成長10%。你們能否談談這種成長是否具有地域性差異？你們對美國、歐洲和世界其他地區的成長有什麼看法？

Sure. Good question, and it kind of is across geographies. We see increases in the North American market. Kenworth and Peterbilt are doing really well, have strong order intake. And the same is true in DAF. Both economies have strong freight activity. Trucks are moving and has good order intake right now.

當然。問得好，而且這種情況在不同地區都有體現。我們看到北美市場有所成長。肯沃斯和彼得比爾特表現非常出色，訂單量強勁。達夫的情況也一樣。這兩個地區的貨運活動都很活躍。卡車運輸量很大，訂單量也很可觀。

Okay. Got it. And then just on the Parts business. Pleasantly surprised by the acceleration there into the fourth quarter on the top line. Can you just talk a little bit about sustainability about strength into next year or some sort of sense of what you guys are thinking for Parts revenue growth in 2021?

好的，明白了。接下來談談零件業務。第四季營收成長加快，著實令人驚喜。您能否談談這種強勁勢頭能否持續到明年，或者您對2021年零件業務營收成長有何展望？

Yes. I think that if you look at our Parts, they just did a fantastic job in the past year. And for the past several years, really, of not just serving our customers but creating creative solutions for our customers. One of the things we talked about and mentioned was e-commerce. They've created a state-of-the-art system where you can go online and get your parts, it makes it a lot easier. We made the investments in the distribution network so that next-day delivery and even same-day delivery parts has increased in the percentages. And they just do a fantastic job of taking care of all the different kinds of customers, meeting their needs, which is bringing business to them. So we do think that growth will continue in the coming years for our parts team at kind of a similar rate.

是的。我認為，如果你看看我們的零件部門，你會發現他們在過去一年裡做得非常出色。事實上，過去幾年他們不僅服務好客戶，也為客戶創造了許多創新解決方案。我們討論並提到電子商務。他們創建了一個先進的系統，客戶可以在線上訂購零件，這大大簡化了流程。我們對分銷網絡進行了投資，使得次日達甚至當日達的零件供應比例顯著提高。他們出色地服務於各類客戶，滿足他們的需求，從而為他們帶來了業務成長。因此，我們認為未來幾年零件團隊將繼續保持類似的成長速度。

Our next question comes from Stephen Volkmann with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自傑富瑞集團的史蒂芬‧沃克曼。

Just a quick follow-up on that one. Should we also expect gross margins in that Parts business to continue to expand as well in this scenario?

關於這一點，我還有一個後續問題。在這種情況下，我們是否也應該預期零件業務的毛利率會繼續成長？

Well, I think the gross margins we enjoy in Parts are very high, and we'd expect them to continue to be very high, Steve. So we'll look for that to continue through -- certainly through the quarter and year.

嗯，我認為零件業務的毛利率非常高，而且我們預計會繼續保持高位，史蒂夫。所以我們期待這種情況能夠持續下去——至少在本季和全年都會如此。

Okay. And then kind of my broader question, Preston, is just about how you guys are looking at the year. I'm assuming that the first quarter will be sort of the low delivery quarter of the year and things will sort of slowly grow as the year progresses to kind of hit your industry targets. Please disagree if that's not the way you're thinking about it. But I'm curious if we should also think about the first quarter as kind of the low gross margin quarter as well in the truck business.

好的。普雷斯頓，我還有一個更廣泛的問題，就是你們如何看待今年的業績。我假設第一季是全年交付量最低的季度，然後隨著時間的推移，業務量會緩慢成長，最終達到行業目標。如果我的想法不同，請不吝賜教。但我很好奇，在卡車運輸業，我們是否也應該把第一季視為毛利率最低的季度。

I think we're at the beginning of the cycle right now where you look at where we're coming out of and where we're going to. And obviously, we have better clarity on the first quarter than we do the second, third and fourth quarter. So right now, the quarter is full in build. We have great visibility in the second quarter. As it stands, we'd expect 3 and 4 to go that way, but there's a lot of time between now and then. So maybe your modeling is right, but I think it's a little early to kind of call the latter part of the year.

我認為我們現在正處於週期的初期，需要觀察我們正從哪裡走出去，又將走向何方。顯然，我們對第一季的預測比第二、三、第四季要清晰得多。目前，第一季正處於全面建設階段。我們對第二季的前景非常明朗。就目前來看，我們預計第三季和第四季也會如此，但距離那時還有很長一段時間。所以，也許你的模型是正確的，但我認為現在預測下半年的走勢還為時過早。

Okay. Maybe just conceptually then a different way, you guys have done quite a bit of work on the Parts business and on the cost structure to some extent. I guess I'm just curious if you running the company, kind of expect overall margins to be higher this cycle than they were in the previous cycle.

好的。或許我們可以換個角度來談概念。你們在零件業務和成本結構方面做了不少工作。我只是好奇，身為公司的管理者，你們是否預期本週期整體利潤率會高於上一個週期。

Well, I think we've made some good investments. We have some great things happening right now. So I think the recovery in gross margins to 13.5% that we're seeing will be around in the first quarter is good progress. And then I'd share with you that this is going to be a really exciting year for PACCAR in terms of new product introductions. So in the coming months, both in the United States and Canada as well as in Europe, we have some big introductions that we think will be really helpful to our company growth.

我認為我們進行了一些不錯的投資，目前也取得了一些令人振奮的進展。因此，我認為第一季毛利率回升至13.5%左右是一個好的開始。此外，我還想告訴大家，對於PACCAR而言，今年將是令人振奮的一年，我們將推出一系列新產品。未來幾個月，無論是在美國、加拿大或歐洲，我們都將推出一些重磅產品，我們相信這些產品將對公司的發展起到至關重要的作用。

Our next question comes from Jamie Cook with Crédit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的傑米庫克。

I guess a couple of questions. One on the fourth quarter. Can you just provide any granularity on sort of pricing or mix dynamics in the quarter? I think pricing was slightly negative last quarter. So if you could help us out on that front. So I guess I'll start with that, and then I'll ask my follow-up.

我想問幾個問題。第一個是關於第四季的。您能否詳細說明一下該季度的定價或產品組合動態？我記得上個季度的定價略有下滑。如果您能在這方面提供一些信息，那就太好了。那麼，我就先問這個問題，然後再問後續問題。

Pricing was very, very stable, maybe slightly down in the fourth quarter. But pretty normal for where we are in the cycle right now.

價格非常穩定，第四季可能略有下降。但就我們目前所處的周期階段而言，這相當正常。

Okay. And was there anything else like related to mix or anything besides the pricing commentary that impacted the fourth quarter? And then I guess my follow-up question, just as I have you, is just any additional color you can provide on the R&D increase, where the spend is going, how much of that can be attributed to the recent announcement with Aurora on the autonomous side?

好的。除了定價方面的評論之外，還有其他與產品組合或其他方面相關的因素影響了第四季度業績嗎？然後，我想問一個後續問題，就像我之前問你的一樣，您能否進一步說明一下研發投入的成長情況，例如資金的流向，以及其中有多少可以歸因於最近與Aurora在自動駕駛領域發布的公告？

Yes. Jamie, thanks for the question. On the pricing side, you look at just a little bit of it is cycle timing and just where we're at, how much backlog there has been. And so we're seeing improvement in that as we go through this year now. I would say there has been commodity cost increases, which has had some impact. And obviously, the effects of managing the pandemic has had some effect. So those are kind of the key factors you look at in pricing. As the [Aurora], we see some opportunities in that. We look forward to those opportunities. And then in terms of your second question, can you repeat what you were specifically...

是的，Jamie，謝謝你的提問。關於定價，我們主要考慮的是周期時間、目前的訂單積壓情況等等。隨著今年的推進，我們看到情況有所改善。我認為大宗商品成本上漲也產生了一定的影響。當然，應對疫情的影響也不容忽視。這些都是定價的關鍵因素。身為Aurora，我們看到了其中的一些機遇，並期待這些機會的到來。至於你的第二個問題，你能再重複一下你剛才具體說的話嗎…

my question was -- yes. Just any additional color you can provide on the R&D spend. I know we increased it a little from what we said last quarter. And how much of that, if any, is attributed to Aurora? Any color you can provide on that?

我的問題——是的。關於研發支出，您能否提供更多細節？我知道我們比上個季度公佈的研發支出略有增加。其中有多少（如果有的話）是用於Aurora的？您能否提供一些相關資訊？

Sure. I would share kind of the same thought I should receive is that we have a lot of great things happening right now in the company in terms of new product introductions that we'll see this year. And some of that R&D spending is in support of those really exciting products that you'll get to hear about shortly. And also, we have a great focus on technology. We mentioned in the comments for our factories, but also in the space of 0-emissions vehicles and connected services and autonomous vehicle development and ADAS Level 2 projects. So we have a lot of great things going on that build for a strong future.

當然。我也想表達類似的觀點，那就是我們公司目前有許多令人振奮的新產品即將推出，這些產品將在今年面世。我們投入的部分研發資金正用於支持這些令人興奮的產品，相信您很快就會聽到相關消息。此外，我們也非常重視技術。正如我們在評論中提到的，我們不僅關注工廠建設，還致力於零排放汽車、互聯服務、自動駕駛汽車開發以及ADAS L2級專案。總之，我們正在進行許多卓有成效的工作，為公司打造一個美好的未來。

Our next question comes from the line of Ann Duignan with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的安·杜伊尼安。

Maybe you could give us some color on your outlook for both regions. What you think the biggest drivers are going to be, whether it's line haul in the U.S., whether it's severe service. Just some color on both North America and Europe, maybe Europe by region also as well as mix.

您能否就這兩個地區的市場前景談談您的看法？您認為最大的驅動因素是什麼？是美國的幹線運輸，還是重型貨物運輸？請分別談談北美和歐洲的情況，最好也以地區和組合分析一下歐洲市場。

Sure. Let's just start with the U.S. Canada markets and say that we have good housing starts. The auto industry is performing well, expected to perform even better in 2021. So those are both good for our businesses. People continue to live their daily lives as they need to. So the refrigerated carriers and protein haulers are doing a good job as well. And basically, the truck industry is kind of doing pretty well. And I don't expect that to change. Truck utilization is high. And so I think that we're even starting to see signs of green shoots in the oil and gas industry. So all of that combined points to a good year for us in the U.S. and Canada. And I don't think it's very dissimilar in Europe. I don't know, anything you would add, Harrie?

當然。我們先從美國和加拿大市場說起，房屋開工量不錯。汽車業表現良好，預計2021年會更好。這些對我們的業務來說都是利好消息。人們的日常生活照常進行。冷藏運輸和蛋白質運輸也做得很好。總的來說，卡車產業發展得相當好，我預計這種情況不會改變。卡車利用率很高。我認為我們甚至開始看到石油和天然氣行業出現復甦的跡象。所有這些因素加在一起，預示著美國和加拿大今年將迎來豐收。我認為歐洲的情況也大同小異。哈里，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Well, the Europe transport activity remained strong as well. We just got the German Maut statistic in, that's the number of miles of which trucks have to pay toll in Germany that was up more than 4% in December after a 4% increase in November. So that just shows that trucks are driving, our customers are doing well. In terms of regional, I probably would expect Central and Eastern Europe to do a little bit better than the U.K. maybe, but it's a trend we see across Europe.

歐洲的運輸活動依然強勁。我們剛剛收到了德國的通行費統計數據，即卡車在德國境內需要繳納通行費的里程數，12 月比 11 月增加了 4% 以上。這表明卡車運輸活動仍在進行，我們的客戶運作狀況良好。就區域而言，我預期中歐和東歐的情況可能會比英國略好一些，但這確實是整個歐洲的普遍趨勢。

Okay. I appreciate that. And then with the R&D spend increase in the number of new products that you're launching that you've alluded to, should we anticipate that SG&A will be higher also in maybe the second, third quarter as you launch all these products and you increase your marketing, you increase your spend above and beyond maybe any impact it might have on manufacturing and gross margins as you launch these products?

好的，我明白了。您剛才提到，隨著新產品數量的增加，研發投入也會增加。那麼，我們是否應該預期，隨著這些新產品的推出，以及行銷投入的增加，銷售、管理及行政費用（SG&A）在第二季或第三季也會上漲？這些增加是否會對產量和毛利率產生影響？

No, I don't think so. I think as we look at last year, we had improvements, reductions in our SG&A and for the full year and also even in the fourth quarter. And we'd expect kind of the fourth quarter to be at a run rate for 2021. So the -- effective last year and trimming things in the business will continue. We always want to make sure that we're diligent in providing the lowest fixed cost that we can to the -- to our shareholders.

不，我不這麼認為。回顧去年，我們的銷售、管理及行政費用（SG&A）有所改善和降低，全年如此，第四季度也是如此。我們預計2021年第四季的業績將與去年持平。因此，去年開始的精簡業務流程將持續進行。我們始終致力於為股東提供盡可能低的固定成本。

Okay. And no incremental cost from commodity prices, steel prices or anything? I know you're more of an assembler, so the impact on you will be muted. But are you anticipating any kind of supply shortages, supply chain issues related to like availability of steel or anything like that?

好的。那麼，商品價格、鋼材價格或其他任何因素都不會帶來額外的成本嗎？我知道你們主要是組裝商，所以受到的影響可能不大。但是，你們是否預期會出現任何供應短缺、供應鏈問題，例如鋼材供應或其他類似問題？

We have a great team in our materials teams and purchasing teams around the world. And while there's much been written about supply shortages, they have done a fantastic job of making sure we have all the parts we need to put the trucks together and create our products. And we don't anticipate anything significant in the first quarter. It's tight for the whole world, but they are just doing a really good job. And one of the reasons we're able to do that is they do a good job of forecasting out to our supply base what our schedules are. And I think that's much appreciated. It allows our suppliers to be successful, and it allows our company to be successful.

我們在全球各地的材料團隊和採購團隊都非常出色。雖然關於供應短缺的報導很多，但他們做得非常棒，確保我們擁有組裝卡車和生產產品所需的所有零件。我們預計第一季不會有任何重大問題。全球供應都很緊張，但他們的工作做得非常出色。我們能夠做到這一點的原因之一是，他們能夠準確地預測我們的生產計劃，並將其傳達給我們的供應商。我認為這一點非常重要。這不僅保證了供應商的成功，也保證了我們公司的成功。

Our next question comes from Steven Fisher with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的史蒂文費雪。

Just curious about how your order share in Q4 trended. Was it higher or lower than your retail share in Q4 as an indicator of where market share might be going in the relative near term? And just curious how that looked in North America versus Europe.

我很好奇你們第四季的訂單份額趨勢如何。它高於還是低於第四季的零售份額？這能否作為短期市佔率走勢的指標？另外，我還想了解北美和歐洲的情況有何不同。

Sure. If you look at our order share, and I think it's easier to look at it in bigger chunks because there's cyclicality, our order share grew in 2020 as a percentage of the industry. So that's a positive thing. And obviously, we grew our market share a little bit, and we feel well positioned to continue growing in 2021.

當然。如果你看一下我們的訂單份額，考慮到週期性，我覺得從更大的層面來看更容易理解。 2020年，我們佔行業總份額的比例有所增長。這是個正面的訊號。顯然，我們的市佔率也略有成長，我們有信心在2021年繼續保持成長動能。

Okay. And then I know it's still just very early days on this, but curious how the orders on the electric trucks looked in Q4. And if you're seeing any just momentum building on that into -- in Q1?

好的。我知道現在談論這個話題還為時過早，但我很好奇第四季度電動卡車的訂單情況如何。您是否看到訂單量在第一季有所成長？

There is definitely momentum building, good question. There's momentum building, but it's momentum building from a kind of a very, very low level. And now I think people are interested in trying a truck or 2 or 10. And so that's kind of the scale you're talking about in terms of the industry right now for 0-emissions vehicles. It does still depend heavily on government subsidies to make it an economically workable solution. So again, I would emphasize that I expect the industry will see hundreds of units in sales this year and that we'll get a good percentage of those.

確實，勢頭正在增強，問得好。勢頭確實在增強，但這種增強是從非常非常低的水平開始的。現在我認為人們有興趣嘗試購買一輛、兩輛，甚至十輛卡車。這就是您所說的目前零排放汽車產業的規模。它仍然嚴重依賴政府補貼才能成為經濟上可行的解決方案。所以我再次強調，我預計今年該行業將實現數百輛的銷量，而我們將獲得其中相當一部分份額。

Next question comes from David Raso with Evercore.

下一個問題來自 Evercore 公司的 David Raso。

So on the gross margins, I'm just trying to think about every year, there's always a lot of investment and products, initiatives that are clearly not in full production. But just given the technology push that we're seeing right now across a variety of drivetrains and autonomous and so forth, is there any level of cost that you would call out that's incremental this year than normal? Again, the first quarter gross margins are pretty impressive. I mean, it implies like a 25% incremental sequentially. And I'm just trying to think through are maybe some of those new costs not going up that much year-over-year so the volume really gets levered more than normal? I'm just trying to think through, there's got to be some costs that are above normal. And again, it makes the gross margin guide a little more impressive. I'm just trying to sanity check it. And then I had a quick follow-up related to the factories but definitely that's the first question.

關於毛利率，我只是想回顧一下每年的情況，總是會有很多投資和產品，以及一些顯然尚未全面投產的項目。但鑑於我們目前在各種動力系統、自動駕駛等領域看到的技術快速發展，您認為今年有哪些成本比往年更高？第一季的毛利率確實非常亮眼，季增了約25%。我正在思考，這些新增成本中是否有一些並沒有同比大幅增長，所以銷量增長帶來的收益比往年更高？我只是想弄清楚，肯定有一些成本高於往年。這樣一來，毛利率預期就顯得更誘人了。我只是想確認一下。之後我還有一個關於工廠的後續問題，但這無疑是我的第一個問題。

I would start by saying that if you look at the gross margin effects of it, it's -- it has a lot more to do with the COVID and global pandemic than it has to do with the R&D that we're doing. I don't really think of those relatively. And I would just say that we are seeing a pretty good improvement coming for the first quarter and gross margin with that 12.6%, turning towards around 13.5% level and feel good about the growth we're getting. And again, it's tied to the place we are in the market and the market's improvement. More about that in the gross margin to me than the R&D spending. The R&D spending is going to be great because we're bringing out these fantastic new products, and that should be helpful to us in gross margin.

首先我想說的是，如果從毛利率的角度來看，它更受到新冠疫情和全球大流行的影響，而不是我們研發投入的影響。我並不認為這兩者之間有直接的關聯。我想說的是，我們預計第一季的毛利率將顯著改善，從12.6%成長到13.5%左右，我們對目前的成長動能感到滿意。再次強調，這與我們在市場上的地位以及市場的改善密切相關。對我而言，市場改善對毛利率的影響遠大於研發投入。研發投入固然重要，因為我們正在推出一些非常棒的新產品，這應該有助於提高我們的毛利率。

But beyond the R&D, are there any incremental costs for products that are not providing much of any revenue, let alone profits than you would normally see in a cycle? I mean, again, the R&D is not an immaterial number, but I'm just trying to think through the ramp in cost given it's a bit of unique time in the technology rollout in the industry. Are you saying you wouldn't describe this as any more abnormal than yes maybe the R&D is up a bit given the new product rollout. You would not describe this as a bit abnormal?

除了研發成本之外，對於那些幾乎沒有收入（更不用說利潤）的產品，是否存在比正常週期更高的額外成本？我的意思是，研發成本當然不容忽視，但我只是想了解一下，鑑於目前是行業技術推廣的特殊時期，成本增長的可能性有多大。您的意思是，您認為這種情況並不比新產品上市導致研發成本略有上升更不尋常嗎？您認為這不算異常嗎？

No, I think our R&D spending is an increase. That's on the products we're introducing, and it's on the technology we're introducing. But we continue to have R&D as a percentage of sales at the lowest levels of anybody. We do a great job. Our engineering team is doing a fantastic job of working with partners and having those partnerships so that we bring great technology to our customers, but we codevelop, and that seems to be a great model, and it's part of the story around Aurora is we pick industry leaders like them that are fantastic with technology, and we're fantastic in developing an autonomously-enabled truck. And together, that becomes an efficient way to bring an industry-leading solution to the market at a reasonable cost.

不，我認為我們的研發投入確實增加了。這體現在我們推出的新產品和新技術上。但我們的研發投入佔銷售額的比例仍是所有公司中最低的。我們做得非常出色。我們的工程團隊與合作夥伴緊密合作，致力於為客戶提供卓越的技術，我們透過合作開發，這似乎是一個非常棒的模式。 Aurora 的故事也正是如此：我們選擇像他們這樣在科技領域領先的企業，而我們在開發自動駕駛卡車方面也同樣出色。這樣一來，我們就能以合理的成本有效率地將業界領先的解決方案推向市場。

And then when it comes to my factory question, where are the factories? I mean, the real core ones like Denton and Chillicothe and embracing the cycle in the sense of adding the extra shift, adding a skeleton third shift? I'm just trying to get a sense of where are you in balancing, adding the capacity, which of the order book is very strong, it's not necessarily risky, but just the idea of where are you adding that in the confidence in the order book? And second, of course, there's always that balance of adding capacity versus pricing. Are any of those ships running right now?

至於我之前提到的工廠問題，工廠在哪裡？我是說像丹頓和奇利科西這樣的核心工廠，以及你們是否順應生產週期，增加額外的班次，例如增加一個基本的第三班？我只是想了解你們在平衡產能、增加產能方面處於什麼狀態，哪些訂單非常強勁，不一定有風險，只是你們對訂單的信心如何？其次，當然，產能增加和定價之間始終存在著平衡問題。目前有哪些船隻正在運作？

So the truck factories have done a fantastic job of managing the increases that we've seen over the last quarter. They've just done a beautiful job of keeping people safe. I just want to keep emphasizing that because that's our most important priority is our employees. And they've done a great job of being able to increase build while protecting people and giving them a safe working environment. And we don't see any limitations to that. We see the ability to keep increasing build rate as we need in the factories to support the market. There's really not any limitation on that. So they're not operating at near max capacity at this point.

因此，卡車工廠在應對上個季度產量成長方面做得非常出色。他們在保障員工安全方面做得非常好。我再次強調這一點，因為員工是我們最重要的優先事項。他們能夠在提高產量的同時保護員工，並為他們提供安全的工作環境，做得非常棒。我們認為這方面沒有任何限制。我們有能力根據市場需求，持續提高工廠的產量。這方面真的沒有任何限制。所以，他們目前並沒有接近滿載運轉。

Are they all on second shift, full second? Or is it skeleton? I mean, there's always those inflection points in the cycle where you have to make that jump and I'm just going to leave it there.

他們都是上二班嗎？是全班二班嗎？還是只安排部分人手？我的意思是，週期中總會有一些轉捩點，你必須做出調整，我就說到這裡吧。

You're right, David. There always are and some of them as appropriate, would be on second shifts, and some of them are not as appropriate. So each factory is in its own balance right now.

你說得對，大衛。總是會有這樣的情況，有些員工如果合適，可以上二班，有些則不太合適。所以，每個工廠目前的情況都不一樣。

Our next question comes from Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的傑瑞·雷維奇。

Preston, I'm wondering if you can just expand on your comments about expectations of very good market share on truck and hydrogen vehicles. What's your win rate now out of what's been bid for delivery over the next year? You mentioned the industry size of a couple of hundred units. And I'm just curious, what are you folks seeing in terms of your success rate on those bids?

普雷斯頓，我想請你詳細解釋一下你之前關於卡車和氫燃料汽車市場份額預期非常高的觀點。你現在對未來一年交付的訂單得標率是多少？你提到過這個產業規模大概有幾百輛。我很好奇，你們的得標率是多少？

Our success rate tends to be pretty good. And we obviously have a strong relationship with our existing customers, provide them great products, low operating costs and repeat of that is at extremely high levels, and our win rate continues to be high where we go out and are able to show people, Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF trucks that have never tried them before and they get to experience them. I think they're impressed also. And that's the reason we've been growing our market share and the reason we expect to keep growing our market share.

我們的成功率一直都相當不錯。顯然，我們與現有客戶保持著牢固的關係，為他們提供優質的產品和低營運成本，而且客戶重複購買率極高。當我們外出向從未體驗過肯沃斯、彼得比爾特和達夫卡車的人們展示這些品牌時，我們的成交率仍然很高。我認為他們也印象深刻。這就是我們市場份額不斷增長的原因，也是我們預期未來市場份額將繼續增長的原因。

And part of the reason why you folks have higher market share in heavy duty than medium-duty is because you get paid for the higher features of higher spec trucks. And in an EV world, obviously, the per truck costs are higher. I'm just wondering, is that a tailwind that you're seeing? Is that what your comps allude to some customers that would be more value-focused are now trying your trucks in medium duty. So this dynamic could potentially be a market share tailwind for you folks? Am I understanding you right?

你們重型卡車市佔率高於中型卡車的部分原因在於，你們的利潤來自高配卡車的高級配置。在電動車時代，單輛卡車的成本顯然更高。我想知道，這是否對你們有利？你們的競爭對手是否也暗示，一些更注重性價比的客戶現在開始嘗試你們的中型卡車？這種趨勢是否有可能為你們帶來市場佔有率的成長？我的理解對嗎？

I think it could be, but Harrie, do you want to?

我覺得有可能，但哈莉，你願意嗎？

I think Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF have been real leaders in customization and giving customers exactly the trucks the way they want them, and how they want them. And with electrification, that's probably even more important that we just configure the truck exactly to their needs, their transport task and make sure the weight and the charging and all of that is optimized for their requirements.

我認為肯沃斯、彼得比爾特和達夫一直是客製化領域的真正領導者，他們能夠根據客戶的需求和要求，提供完全符合他們心意的卡車。而隨著電氣化的發展，這一點可能顯得尤為重要，我們需要根據客戶的需求和運輸任務來精確配置卡車，並確保重量、充電等所有方面都達到最佳狀態。

To add on to that, it kind of brings a more integrated experience for the user because you got to think about how much time do you need to charge it. And that's why one of the reasons we're selling charging stations through PACCAR Parts is we think that whole energy management opportunity is good for our customers and should be good for PACCAR.

此外，它還能為用戶帶來更完善的體驗，因為用戶需要考慮充電所需時間。這也是我們透過 PACCAR Parts 銷售充電樁的原因之一：我們認為這種全面的能源管理模式對我們的客戶有益，對 PACCAR 本身也大有裨益。

Okay. And lastly, I'm wondering if you can provide an update on your telematics, so now that you have even more data with more trucks in the field. Is there anything that you're able to offer customers or anything that you can do incrementally within your operations to increase efficiency, building on that growing data set?

好的。最後，我想請您介紹一下您的遠端資訊處理系統，現在您有了更多數據，也有更多的卡車投入使用。基於不斷成長的資料集，您能否為客戶提供一些服務，或在營運中採取一些措施來逐步提高效率？

That is a fun topic, and we could spend all day talking about it. Maybe when we can get back to you live, we'll spend a lot more time on it. But in brevity, I would say that our connected services business really is a growth opportunity. All our trucks in North America come from the factory connected. A majority -- vast majority in Europe come connected as well. And so we collect a lot of data from them, which we share with the customers, it's their data. We share that with the customers and talk about how to improve their operating efficiency and talk about how the vehicle is performing. That involves our great distribution network as well. So our dealers are looking at that data, and they know how to take care of the customer as well. We have event management -- service event management capabilities, so we understand where vehicles are in the network, how to take care of them better. So it's really kind of all about optimizing our customers' experience, and that obviously can be good for PACCAR as well.

這是一個很有趣的話題，我們可以花一整天的時間討論。或許等我們能和您連線直播的時候，我們會花更多時間深入探討。但簡而言之，我認為我們的互聯服務業務確實是一個成長機會。我們在北美的所有卡車出廠時都已連網。在歐洲，絕大多數卡車也是如此。因此，我們會收集大量數據並與客戶分享，畢竟這些數據是他們的。我們會與客戶分享這些數據，探討如何提高他們的營運效率，以及車輛的性能表現。這其中也離不開我們強大的分銷網絡。我們的經銷商會查看這些數據，並了解如何更好地服務客戶。我們擁有事件管理——也就是服務事件管理功能，因此我們能夠了解車輛在網路中的位置，以及如何更好地維護它們。所以，這一切的最終目的都是為了優化客戶體驗，而這顯然對帕卡集團本身也有好處。

Our next question comes from Chad Dillard with Bernstein.

下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦公司的查德·迪拉德。

So you guys guided to a pretty solid start to the first quarter on trucks. And I was just curious on how you're thinking about the first half versus second half seasonality and cadence. And recognizing it's still early, but what are the business [drives] as you're thinking about it?

所以你們的卡車業務第一季開局相當穩健。我很好奇你們是如何看待上半年和下半年的季節性變化和節奏的。我知道現在下結論還為時過早，但你們認為業務的驅動因素是什麼？

Sure. I think the way we're looking at the world right now is that it's the beginning of an improvement towards replacement level. And that, as we trend towards replacement level, we'll see where the market goes. If we're saying the midpoint is 265,000, both Europe and in North America, that's a healthy market. And it feels like it's a sustainable market for a while. But obviously, it depends a lot on the economy and what's generally happening.

當然。我認為我們目前看待世界的方式是，這標誌著我們正朝著更新換代水準邁進。隨著我們逐漸接近更新換代水平，我們將觀察市場走向。如果我們假設歐洲和北美的中點是26.5萬輛，那麼這是一個健康的市場。而且感覺這個市場水準還能持續一段時間。但顯然，這很大程度上取決於經濟狀況和整體發展趨勢。

And can you talk about your approach to building your autonomous platform? Will it be more like open source, so many digital drivers like overall can interface with it? Or will be a little bit more exclusive? And maybe you could walk through your thought process behind making that decision.

您能否談談您建構自動駕駛平台的方法？它會更偏向開源，讓許多數位駕駛者都能與之互動嗎？還是會更封閉一些？您能否詳細解釋一下您做出這個決定的想法？

Sure. The way we're looking at this right now is this is a nascent technology that has a lot of development, and it's going to take several years to do, as we shared in our announcement. Aurora is a great company with a lot of really skilled people, they're a very impressive group of people. And our team that's working on autonomously-enabled trucks is also skilled. And we think that the best approach to bring something robust, safe, secure to market is to work together, our leadership with their leadership, to create a capable level 4 autonomous vehicle. And then we'll do a lot of testing on that. And we'll have the endgame be to provide our customers a safe, efficient vehicle. It takes several years to do that.

當然。我們目前看待這個問題的方式是，這是一項尚處於發展初期、仍需大量研發的新興技術，正如我們在公告中所述，這需要數年時間才能完成。 Aurora 是一家非常優秀的公司，擁有眾多技術精湛的人才，他們是一支令人印象深刻的團隊。我們負責研發自動駕駛卡車的團隊也同樣技術精湛。我們認為，將強大、安全、可靠的產品推向市場的最佳方法是雙方領導層攜手合作，共同打造一款功能強大的 L4 級自動駕駛車輛。之後，我們將對其進行大量的測試。我們的最終目標是為客戶提供安全、高效的車輛。而這需要數年時間才能實現。

Our next question comes from the line of Ross Gilardi with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的羅斯·吉拉迪。

First, maybe you can just elaborate a little bit more on Aurora since you're just on the topic. And anything incremental that you can provide just to help us think about it a little bit more, whether it's the economics of the collaboration, how should we think about it in terms of your competitive position? Is it something that's going to drive the fastest speed to market for PACCAR with level for autonomy? And do you think that you'll experience a meaningful increase in pricing power as you do that?

首先，既然您剛才提到了Aurora，能否再詳細談談？能否提供一些補充訊息，幫助我們更深入地思考這個問題？例如合作的經濟效益，以及從貴公司的競爭地位來看，我們該如何看待這次合作？它是否能幫助PACCAR以最快的速度將自動駕駛技術推向市場？您認為隨著合作的進行，貴公司的定價權會大幅提升嗎？

Well, I think that Aurora is a really good company. We chose them because of our working relationship with them. And I think that what you'll see is as we develop capable systems that have redundancy and steering, braking, power systems, control, software, and they develop the autonomous driver with sensors and software stacks that are integrated into that, that integration will be important. I think it will provide a good strength for our customers. It will be obviously advantageous for Aurora. And PACCAR will benefit because we'll have this autonomously enabled platform, which will be a value to our customers. And it will go -- it'll use our distribution system. It will make their operations potentially more efficient, and it should be one of those situations in life that creates a win for us, a win for Aurora and a win for our customers.

我認為Aurora是一家非常優秀的公司。我們選擇他們正是因為我們與他們建立了良好的合作關係。我相信，隨著我們開發出具備冗餘功能、涵蓋轉向、煞車、動力系統、控制和軟體的強大系統，而他們開發出整合了感測器和軟體堆疊的自動駕駛系統，這種整合將至關重要。我認為這將為我們的客戶帶來強大的優勢。顯然，這對Aurora來說也是有利的。 PACCAR也將從中受益，因為我們將擁有一個具備自動駕駛功能的平台，這將為我們的客戶創造價值。該平台將使用我們的配送系統，從而提高客戶的營運效率。這應該會是一個三贏的局面，對我們、Aurora和我們的客戶來說都是如此。

Any particular milestones we should just think about? Obviously, it's a great, great opportunity and should give you guys an advantage. But what's to look out for? Is this just something that like over the next 3 years we'll just get occasional updates? Or is there anything you could point to as kind of the next key milestone to look forward for Aurora?

有沒有什麼需要特別關注的里程碑？顯然，這是一個絕佳的機會，應該能讓你們獲得優勢。但具體有哪些值得關注的地方呢？是不是未來三年我們只會偶爾收到一些更新？或者說，對於Aurora來說，有沒有什麼值得期待的下一個關鍵里程碑？

I think that we'll be conservative in our milestones, and we definitely making some interesting progress right now. It's really exciting inside. But as far as laying out milestones, I think we probably not want to do that right now.

我認為我們在設定里程碑時會比較保守，而且我們目前確實取得了一些令人矚目的進展。公司內部氣氛非常令人振奮。但就制定里程碑而言，我認為我們現在可能還不應該這樣做。

Okay. And then just the last thing I want to ask you. I realize you've gotten a lot of questions on gross margin already. I'm sorry to dwell on it. But I'm just looking, for the first quarter, your implied truck deliveries seem to put you on a level of deliveries that were similar to the first quarter of '18. And in the first quarter of '18, your gross margin was 14.8%. And now you're saying it's going to be about 13.5%, and I understand that you've invested in safety and so forth, and you've got some inefficiencies in the supply chain and whatnot. But is it possible to say how much of that difference is really tied to what you think are sort of COVID-19 related inefficiencies? And more importantly, is there any reason to expect lower gross margins through the next cycle versus prior cycles?

好的。最後我想問您一個問題。我知道您已經收到很多關於毛利率的問題了，很抱歉再問這個問題。我只是想了解一下，根據您第一季的卡車交付量估算，您的交付量似乎與2018年第一季的水平相近。 2018年第一季度，您的毛利率是14.8%。現在您說毛利率會降到13.5%左右，我知道您在安全等方面進行了投資，而且供應鏈也存在一些效率低下的問題等等。但是，您能否說明一下，這其中有多少差異是真正與您認為與新冠疫情相關的效率低下有關？更重要的是，是否有任何理由預期下一個週期的毛利率會低於先前的週期？

Yes. I would estimate that the cost associated with increased safety, higher absenteeism and over time, as a result of the safety measures we've taken would be around 40 basis points maybe for us. So that's a little bit of a drag, but yes, we -- despite the COVID impact, we still see margins nicely improve to 13.5%. And like I said before, that's probably the highest margin in the industry.

是的。我估計，由於我們採取了安全措施，導致安全措施加強、員工缺勤率上升以及長期來看，由此產生的成本大約會讓我們損失40個基點。這確實會造成一些負面影響，但即便受到新冠疫情的影響，我們的利潤率仍顯著提升至13.5%。正如我之前所說，這可能是業界最高的利潤率了。

I think that's one of the things we keep thinking about this, right, is we are going to continue rigorously focused on providing the industry's highest gross margins, and we do that. And we expect to continue doing that. So it's kind of a -- we're pretty happy with the margins being industry-leading.

我認為這是我們一直在思考的問題之一，對吧？我們將繼續全力以赴，力求提供業界最高的毛利率，而我們也確實做到了。我們希望繼續保持這一目標。所以，我們對目前業界領先的毛利率感到非常滿意。

But to the fact that they already are industry-leading is do you feel like there's a ceiling on them at this point and that you're going to potentially drift lower just because where you are saying you're going to be in the first quarter, and I get this is a very odd cycle we're going through, to say the least, it just seems like you're on a just a lower level at the beginning of the year relative to where you were on a similar amount of delivery several years ago?

但鑑於他們已經處於行業領先地位，您是否覺得他們目前的發展已經達到瓶頸，並且可能會因為您所說的第一季業績而下滑？我知道我們正在經歷一個非常奇怪的周期，至少可以說，年初時你們的業績水平似乎比幾年前類似交付量時的水平要低一些？

Yes, I think you have to -- I think you said it well in saying it's an odd cycle, and then we'll see how the year develops on that cycle.

是的，我認為你必須——我認為你說得很好，這是一個奇怪的週期，然後讓我們看看這一年在這個週期中會如何發展。

Our next question comes from Matt Elkott with Cowen.

下一個問題來自 Cowen 公司的 Matt Elkott。

If we take a very long, say, 10-year view, do you guys have any broad vision or high level opinion of what percentage of your truck production might be level 4 and level 5 autonomous? And basically same question by energy type, what percentage might be anything other than conventional diesel in 10 years?

如果我們從長遠角度來看，比如說10年，你們對未來10年內你們卡車產量中可能達到L4級和L5級自動駕駛的比例有什麼大致的設想或高屋建瓴的看法嗎？同樣，從能源類型來看，10年後你們的卡車產量中，除了傳統柴油動力之外，其他能源類型可能佔多大比例？

Well, Matt, that is asking us to prognosticate out there at the decade level. And what I would share with you is the way we think about that question, which we obviously do, is we want to make sure we have the right capabilities for what the customers' needs are. So in autonomy, if there was the right operating environment for Level 4, Level 5 autonomy, we want to have the right products there for our customers as soon as that makes sense, too. And that's why we took the step we did. And similarly, on 0-emissions vehicles, there is going to, at some point, be an economic payback for them. And so that's why we keep being invested in all the different battery electric and hydro fuel cell and hybrid capabilities so that when the market chooses, PACCAR is there for the product that they want. And we kind of think of ourselves as a powertrain agnostic and want to make sure that we can provide the customers the product they need. But in summary, we do think diesel engines will be a primary mode of power for the time frame up to the next decade.

馬特，這相當於要求我們對未來十年的發展趨勢進行預測。我想和你分享的是，我們思考這個問題的方式（當然，我們確實會這樣做）是，我們希望確保我們擁有滿足客戶需求的合適能力。例如，在自動駕駛領域，如果存在適合L4、L5級自動駕駛的運作環境，我們也希望在條件允許的情況下盡快為客戶提供合適的產品。這就是我們採取這一步驟的原因。同樣，對於零排放汽車，它們終究會帶來經濟效益。因此，我們持續投資於各種電池電動、氫燃料電池和混合動力技術，以便在市場做出選擇時，PACCAR能夠提供他們想要的產品。我們認為自己是動力系統中立的，我們希望確保能夠為客戶提供他們需要的產品。但總而言之，我們認為在未來十年內，柴油引擎仍將是主要的動力來源。

Got it. That's very helpful. And if I may ask just one more intermediate term question here. You mentioned that the truck market has been very strong. But the driver market has gotten tighter in TL specifically. Do you see any signs that the Class 8 orders that you're getting for growth may begin to moderate as carriers worry about seating trucks? And if so, do you think whatever replacement demand is left will be enough to keep the order momentum going this year?

明白了，這很有幫助。如果可以的話，我再問一個中期問題。您提到卡車市場一直很強勁，但整車運輸（TL）的司機市場卻越來越緊張。您是否看到任何跡象表明，隨著運輸公司擔心卡車司機短缺，您目前獲得的8級卡車訂單增長勢頭可能會開始放緩？如果是這樣，您認為剩餘的替換需求是否足以維持今年的訂單成長動能？

Well, I don't -- we don't see -- simply, we don't see any moderation order intake in the strong demand for DAF, Peterbilt and Kenworth trucks right now. And we expect that would continue as the cycle goes. So things feel good.

嗯，我們目前沒有看到——或者說，我們沒有看到——簡而言之，我們沒有看到對DAF、Peterbilt和Kenworth卡車的強勁需求出現任何放緩跡象。我們預計隨著週期的推移，這種情況還會持續下去。所以，前景一片光明。

The books are very reasonable. Lead times are competitive. If customers want to have trucks in the second quarter, we can provide them and make sure they get what they need.

價格非常合理，交貨週期也很有競爭力。如果客戶希望在第二季拿到卡車，我們可以提供並確保他們獲得所需的一切。

Our next question comes from Brett Linzey with Vertical Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Brett Linzey。

Just one for me. And back to the parts distribution strategy. 18 currently, I think you said you're going to add another 1 this year. What is the right investment to support that strategy? And are you budgeting continued upward move in investment related to distribution? And then just as a follow-up, could you just talk about in the second half of '20, how the e-commerce retail sales trended, fleet billings versus engine parts as the markets recovered?

我只需要一個問題。回到零件分銷策略的話題。目前是18家，我記得您說過今年會再增加一家。那麼，支持這項策略的合適投資金額是多少呢？您是否計劃繼續增加與分銷相關的投資？另外，能否請您談談2020年下半年，隨著市場復甦，電子商務零售銷售的趨勢如何？車隊訂單與引擎零件的銷售比較如何？

Well, if I think about parts distribution strategy, it's -- our goal is to make sure that we service our customers as effectively and efficiently as possible, which is getting parts to them same-day and next-day with expertise, that being a critical part of it and to make sure that we're supporting their organizations through not just a part, but also technical knowledge and interface with our fantastic dealer networks around the world as well. So the distribution strategy is to how to optimize that. One part of that is bricks-and-mortar, like you mentioned, the 18 distribution centers and the Louisville center that we'll be working on this year and opening next year. So that's an addition. And then as we look forward to it, we'll add the bricks-and-mortar we need, but there's going to continue to be a key focus on technology so that we can continue to expand the service excellence we provide to the customers. And as far as the other part of the question, Harrie, do you have any thoughts?

嗯，如果我考慮零件分銷策略，我們的目標是確保盡可能高效地服務客戶，這包括當天或次日將零件送達，並提供專業技術支持，這是至關重要的一環。同時，我們也要確保不僅提供零件，還能透過技術知識和與遍布全球的優秀經銷商網路的對接，為客戶的組織提供支援。因此，分銷策略的關鍵在於如何優化這個過程。正如您所提到的，其中一部分是實體網點，包括我們今年正在建造的18個分銷中心，以及明年即將投入使用的路易斯維爾中心。這算是一個新增項目。展望未來，我們將繼續增加所需的實體網點，但同時也將持續專注於技術，以便持續提升我們為客戶提供的卓越服務。至於問題的另一部分，哈里，您有什麼想法嗎？

Yes, sure. E-commerce, of course, has been the fastest-growing segment within PACCAR Parts, 25%, like we said. And engine parts is a good segment with a 13% growth year-over-year. I think those are trends that we expect to continue going forward.

當然，電子商務無疑是PACCAR Parts成長最快的業務板塊，正如我們之前提到的，成長率高達25%。引擎零件也是一個表現不錯的板塊，年增13%。我認為這些趨勢預計會持續下去。

Okay. Great. And just a follow-up on R&D. Obviously, sort of a snapback here of a pandemic low in 2020, but it was up -- or at least the expectation for '21 is up about 10% of the 2019 base. What is the right incremental jump we should see over the next 2 to 3 years? Is it 10% plus? Or do you think you're at a good level? Any color you can give us? We feel like we're going to be at a good level with this number. And one of the things we always do is that there's great projects for us to work on, we work on them. We have a really strong balance sheet, a lot of cash and we deploy it wisely to the benefit of our shareholders.

好的，太好了。關於研發方面，我想再補充一點。顯然，研發投入在2020年疫情低谷後有所回升，但至少2021年的預期是比2019年基數成長約10%。未來兩到三年內，研發投入應該有怎樣的合理增幅？是10%以上嗎？還是您認為目前的水平已經很好了？能否透露一些細節？我們認為目前的研發投入水準已經相當不錯了。我們一直以來的做法是，我們會積極推動那些優秀的研發項目。我們擁有非常穩健的資產負債表，現金充裕，並且會明智地運用這些資金，為股東創造收益。

Our next question comes from Adam Uhlman with Cleveland Research.

下一個問題來自克里夫蘭研究公司的亞當·烏爾曼。

I wanted to start with -- I appreciate you sharing your expectations for industry truck sales and the parts business. I'm wondering if you could do the same for the finance subsidiary. Any thoughts on sales or earnings this year?

首先，非常感謝您分享對卡車行業銷售和零件業務的期望。我想請您也談談對金融子公司的預期。您對今年的銷售額或獲利情況有什麼看法嗎？

Yes, finance companies saw a nice improvement in profit from the third to the fourth or quarter. Well -- and if you look at the profit level in the fourth quarter of $64 million with low past dues, good performing portfolio, strong credit qualities, that's the kind of level that we would anticipate for the coming quarters as a range.

是的，金融公司的利潤從第三季到第四季有了顯著提升。第四季獲利達6,400萬美元，逾期帳款比例低，投資組合表現良好，信貸品質強勁，這樣的獲利水準正是我們預期未來幾季獲利將維持的水準。

Okay. And it seems like used truck valuations have moved quite a bit higher recently. Could you -- what are you seeing in the market? And is there any chance that positively benefits your business?

好的。看來二手卡車的估值最近上漲了不少。您能否－您觀察到目前的市場狀況？這是否會對您的業務帶來正面影響？

Yes, used trucks have seen positive momentum, both in Europe and North America, Europe probably bottoming out right now, but North America has seen a nice improvement, about 10%, 12%. So that's a really nice trend. At the same time, our used truck groups have sold a number of used trucks. And as a result, our inventories right now are -- have come down very nicely to very healthy levels.

是的，二手卡車市場在歐洲和北美都呈現積極的成長勢頭。歐洲市場目前可能已經觸底反彈，但北美市場則出現了顯著改善，成長了約10%到12%。這是一個非常可喜的趨勢。同時，我們的二手卡車銷售團隊也售出了不少二手卡車。因此，我們目前的庫存水準已經大幅下降，處於非常健康的水準。

I'd just add that our teams have done a great job in Europe and North America in establishing these retail centers that we've added, both in Leon, France; and Prague in the Czech Republic, the one we're creating in Madrid, Spain; in Denton, Texas. So that really strengthens our ability to provide customers great use trucks and help their operations, too.

我還要補充一點，我們的團隊在歐洲和北美做得非常出色，成功建立了我們在法國里昂、捷克布拉格、西班牙馬德里以及美國德克薩斯州丹頓等地新增的零售中心。這大大增強了我們為客戶提供優質二手卡車並協助其營運的能力。

Absolutely.

絕對地。

Okay. And then just a clarification. Could you update us on your MX engine penetration here recently and any plans or goals for penetration rates in 2021?

好的。還有一個問題需要澄清。能否介紹一下貴公司MX引擎最近的市場滲透率情況，以及2021年市場滲透率的計畫或目標？

Yes. Like over the years, we've seen steady growth in the MX engine, and we expect that growth to continue. And we think about the things we're talking about is if we had 10 years ago to estimate our proprietary engine share was probably 30% and now it's 60%, and it continues to grow. And each year is a different story, depending on who's buying trucks and what parts of the market are alive. But we do expect steady growth on MX engines.

是的。多年來，MX引擎的銷量一直穩步增長，我們預計這種增長勢頭還將繼續。想想看，如果十年前我們估計自有引擎的市場份額，大概是30%，現在已經達到60%，而且還在持續成長。當然，每年的情況都不盡相同，這取決於卡車的買家群體以及市場哪些部分比較活躍。但我們確實預期MX引擎的銷售將保持穩定成長。

Our next question comes from Rob Salmon with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Rob Salmon。

A few follow-ups with regard to Aurora. Could you give us a sense with this partnership if you guys are taking a stake in Aurora? And kind of big picture, how do the economics look for PACCAR? Obviously, you'd be selling a higher spec truck. But curious if there's any sort of revenue you'd be getting on a mileage base or anything along those lines?

關於Aurora，還有幾個後續問題。能否透露一下，透過這次合作，你們是否會持有Aurora的股份？另外，從整體來看，PACCAR的經濟效益如何？顯然，你們會銷售更高配置的卡車。但我想知道，你們是否會根據里程或其他類似方式獲得收入？

Yes. The team down there, led by Chris and Sterling, are great in terms of technology. Their understanding what the model might be going forward, and our understanding of the model might be going forward looks the same in that we would distribute trucks through our network. Obviously, providing a driver, an autonomous driver for them is something that would have lots of updates and lots of engagement with. It's not a sell and forget thing. It's a sell and engage and maintain and update. So that would be, I'm sure, part of their model. And for us, a similar thing, right, the truck will need updates. It will be really important that these -- that the trucks of the industry uses for the autonomous are the highest quality, highest reliability, safest product, which is what PACCAR provides. So it puts us in a strong position. They rely on having a great distribution network of dealers, which we do to take care of those trucks. So that will still be a need. And you'd expect that there'll be an engagement of software and updates and how the truck performs. And so that will provide opportunity for PACCAR on a steady basis as well as just a onetime sale.

是的。克里斯和斯特林領導的團隊在技術方面非常出色。他們對未來模式的理解，和我們對未來模式的理解基本上一致，即透過我們的網路分銷卡車。顯然，為他們提供自動駕駛卡車需要大量的更新和維護。這不是賣出去就完事的事情，而是需要銷售、維護、更新和持續跟進。我相信，這肯定是他們模式的一部分。對我們來說，情況也類似，卡車也需要更新。確保業界用於自動駕駛的卡車擁有最高品質、最高可靠性和最安全的產品至關重要，而這正是帕卡所提供的。這使我們處於有利地位。他們依賴強大的經銷商分銷網絡，而我們正是透過這樣的網絡來維護這些卡車。所以這仍然是必要環節。而且，可以預見的是，我們會持續關注軟體更新以及卡車的性能表現。因此，這將為 PACCAR 提供持續的機遇，而不僅僅是一次性出售的機會。

And Preston, do you have a sense -- I know you've talked about kind of looking out a few years where this penetration goes that you guys are currently thinking about from an [AV]?

普雷斯頓，你有沒有感覺──我知道你之前說過要展望未來幾年，看看你們目前正在考慮的[AV]滲透率會如何發展？

I think it's a little bit early to make that call. I think people have tried to make that call in the car industry a few years ago and found that, that was a difficult decision. And I think the most important thing is to make sure that it's completely safe and completely reliable, and that's where our focus is.

我認為現在下結論還為時過早。幾年前汽車業就有人嘗試做出這樣的決定，結果發現那是個艱難的決定。我認為最重要的是確保產品絕對安全可靠，而這正是我們工作的重點。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Courtney Yakavonis with Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Courtney Yakavonis。

Just wanted to follow-up on the conversation on used truck pricing. You mentioned that the income margins had improved. I think last quarter, you talked about those trucks really flowing through at no margin. But just wanted to understand, has the used inventory been kind of entirely worked through at this point? And then what are the implications then when you think about new pricing for next year? Because I think you had mentioned that new pricing was about flat in the quarter. So how we should be thinking about the impact to your new pricing?

我想就二手卡車定價問題再補充。您提到利潤率有所提高。我記得上個季度您說過，二手卡車的利潤幾乎是零。我想了解的是，目前二手庫存是否已經基本消化完畢？那麼，這對您明年的新車定價有何影響？因為我記得您提到過，上個季度新車定價基本上持平。那麼，我們該如何看待這對您新車定價的影響呢？

So if you look at the used truck inventory, that has come down nicely. It's not that we don't have any used trucks anymore. We can continue to have used trucks. But it's like 16% lower than it was at the beginning of the quarter, it's lower than what it was at the beginning of the year. We continue to sell those trucks through our used truck center, like Preston said. We sell them at those used truck centers. Typically, we would get a premium of around $5,000 per truck. So that will support margins. And better used trucks, of course, provide better trading values for our customers and will be a good thing for them, too.

所以，如果你看一下二手卡車的庫存，你會發現它已經大幅下降。這並不是說我們完全沒有二手卡車了。我們仍然可以繼續銷售二手卡車。但是，目前的庫存比本季初下降了大約16%，也比年初下降了。正如普雷斯頓所說，我們繼續透過我們的二手卡車中心銷售這些卡車。我們通常在這些二手卡車中心銷售它們。通常情況下，每輛卡車我們能獲得大約5000美元的溢價。這將有助於提高利潤率。當然，更好的二手卡車也能為我們的客戶提供更高的置換價值，這對他們來說也是一件好事。

And then just any thoughts on new truck pricing for this year? And then, I guess, especially with respect to some of the comments that you've made on commodity price pressure, can you just give us a sense of how much steel and aluminum could be impacting your margins this year? And what you're thinking about as it relates to price cost?

那麼，您對今年的新卡車定價有什麼看法？另外，考慮到您之前提到的商品價格壓力，您能否簡要說明一下，鋼鐵和鋁的價格波動今年可能會對貴公司的利潤率產生多大的影響？以及您對此在價格成本上有何考量？

I don't think there's anything specific we'd say about that. I mean, we're working with our customers on the trucks they need for the -- from the big to the small, from the locational to the on highway, and we have a strong relationship with the dealers as we do that and make sure they provide the best parts, trucks, finances all together for our customers.

我覺得我們在這方面沒什麼特別要說的。我的意思是，我們一直在和客戶合作，為他們提供所需的各種卡車——從大型到小型，從本地運輸到高速公路運輸，我們與經銷商保持著密切的合作關係，確保他們能為我們的客戶提供最好的零件、卡車和融資方案。

We're working with the supply base, of course. Typically, we have long-term agreements with our suppliers that allow us 3 to 6 months between that raw materials go up and that the prices for those components would go up. So that gives us enough lead time to price it into our trucks and when needed. So that's very normal.

當然，我們一直在與供應商合作。通常情況下，我們與供應商簽訂了長期協議，確保原物料價格上漲與零件價格上漲之間有3到6個月的緩衝期。這樣我們就有足夠的時間將價格計入卡車運輸成本，並在需要時及時調整。這很正常。

Okay. Got you. And then just lastly, you mentioned your parts growth expectation for next year. I think coming out of 3Q, you talked about the acceleration that you saw in parts growth. Have we seen parts growth largely stabilized at this high single digit level? Or was it exiting the quarter much higher and have kind of continued to grow throughout the quarter?

好的，明白了。最後，您提到了對明年零件成長的預期。我記得在第三季末，您談到了零件成長的加速。現在零件成長是否基本上穩定在接近兩位數的水平？還是說第三季末的成長速度更高，並且在整個季度中持續成長？

I think the parts team showed their real strength and capability by having a record quarter. Their fourth quarter was an all-time record for them. So that's steady, strong growth for them. They did a great job, and we expect to see that continue through the year.

我認為零件團隊展現了他們真正的實力和能力，並取得了創紀錄的季度業績。他們的第四季業績創下了歷史新高。這說明他們實現了穩步強勁的成長。他們做得非常出色，我們期待這種勢頭能夠延續到年底。

There are no other questions in the queue at this time. Are there any additional remarks from the company?

目前隊列中沒有其他問題。公司還有其他補充說明嗎？

We'd like to thank everyone for joining the call, and thank you, operator.

感謝各位參與通話，也謝謝接線生。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes PACCAR's earnings call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，PACCAR的財報電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。您可以斷開連線了。