帕卡 (PCAR) 2019 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to PACCAR's Second Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

早安，歡迎參加 PACCAR 2019 年第二季財報電話會議。（操作說明）

Today's call is being recorded, and if anyone has an objection, they should disconnect at this time. I would now like to introduce Mr. Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. Mr. Hastings, please go ahead.

今天的通話正在錄音，如有異議，請立即掛斷電話。現在我謹向大家介紹 PACCAR 的投資者關係總監 Ken Hastings 先生。哈斯廷斯先生，請繼續。

Good morning. We would like to welcome those listening by phone and those on the webcast. My name is Ken Hastings, PACCAR's' Director of Investor Relations. And joining me this morning are Preston Feight, Chief Executive Officer; Harrie Schippers, President and Chief Financial Officer; and Michael Barkley, Senior Vice President and Controller.

早安.我們歡迎透過電話收聽的聽眾和透過網路直播收聽的聽眾。我是肯‧黑斯廷斯，PACCAR公司的投資人關係總監。今天早上和我一起參加節目的有：首席執行官普雷斯頓·費特；總裁兼首席財務官哈里·希珀斯；以及高級副總裁兼財務總監邁克爾·巴克利。

As with prior conference calls, we ask that any members of the media on the line participate in a listen-only mode. Certain information presented today will be forward-looking and involve risks and uncertainties, including general, economic and competitive conditions that may affect expected results. For additional information, please see our SEC filings and the Investor Relations page of paccar.com.

與以往的電話會議一樣，我們要求所有參與電話會議的媒體成員以只聽模式參與。今天公佈的某些資訊屬於前瞻性訊息，涉及風險和不確定性，包括可能影響預期結果的總體經濟和競爭狀況。如需了解更多信息，請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件以及 paccar.com 的投資者關係頁面。

I would now like to introduce Preston Feight.

現在我來介紹普雷斯頓費特。

Good morning. Harrie Schippers, Michael Barkley and I will update you on PACCAR's excellent second quarter results and business highlights. First and foremost, I'm very proud of our exceptional employees. We're passionate about providing our customers the highest quality, highest performing trucks and services in the world. I also want to thank those analysts who participated in our Investor Conference in New York in May. The PACCAR team appreciated the opportunity to provide an update on our business.

早安.哈里希珀斯、邁克爾巴克利和我將向大家介紹 PACCAR 第二季度出色的業績和業務亮點。首先，我為我們優秀的員工感到非常自豪。我們致力於為客戶提供世界上品質最高、性能最好的卡車和服務。我還要感謝五月參加我們在紐約舉辦的投資人大會的各位分析師。PACCAR團隊非常感謝有機會向大家報告我們的業務進度。

PACCAR achieved record quarterly sales and Financial Services revenues of $6.6 billion, and excellent net income of $620 million, resulting in a 9.3% after-tax return on revenues. PACCAR Parts generated record revenues of over $1 billion and record pretax profits of $211 million. Parts revenues increased 6% and profits grew 8% compared to the second quarter of last year. PACCAR achieved robust Truck, Parts and Other gross margins of 14.8%, driven by record truck deliveries, aftermarket parts demand and strong operational performance.

PACCAR 實現了創紀錄的季度銷售額和金融服務收入，達到 66 億美元，淨收入也達到了 6.2 億美元，稅後收入回報率為 9.3%。PACCAR Parts 創造了超過 10 億美元的創紀錄收入和 2.11 億美元的創紀錄稅前利潤。與去年第二季相比，零件收入成長了 6%，利潤成長了 8%。PACCAR 卡車、零件及其他業務的毛利率強勁增長至 14.8%，這得益於創紀錄的卡車交付量、售後零件需求以及強勁的營運業績。

PACCAR delivered a record 52,300 trucks during the second quarter, 13% higher than the second quarter of last year. This reflects increased build in North America, partially offset by lower build in Europe. The U.S. and Canadian Class 8 industry backlog remains high. Kenworth and Peterbilt's 2019 production schedules are substantially full, with customers ordering trucks for delivery in the first half of next year. In Europe, DAF has achieved an excellent year-to-date market share of 16.7%, and the DAF XF was honored as the Fleet Truck of the Year in the U.K.

PACCAR 第二季度交付了創紀錄的 52300 輛卡車，比去年第二季度增加了 13%。這反映出北美地區的建築業成長，但部分被歐洲地區的建築業下降所抵銷。美國和加拿大的8級船級社群訂單積壓仍然很高。Kenworth 和 Peterbilt 2019 年的生產計劃已基本排滿，客戶訂購的卡車將於明年上半年交付。在歐洲，DAF 今年迄今取得了 16.7% 的優異市場份額，DAF XF 也榮獲英國年度最佳車隊卡車稱號。

PACCAR continues to provide excellent annual operating margins, resulting in strong operating cash flow for distribution to shareholders and for reinvestment in future growth.

PACCAR 持續提供優異的年度營業利潤率，從而產生強勁的經營現金流，可用於分配給股東和再投資於未來的成長。

PACCAR declared second quarter dividends of $0.32 per share and first half dividends of $0.64 per share. First half dividends were 21% higher than dividends declared in the same period last year. The company has delivered annual dividends in the range of 45% to 55% of net income for many years and has paid a dividend every year since 1941. PACCAR has increased its quarterly dividend an average of 11% per year during the last 20 years.

PACCAR宣布第二季每股股利0.32美元，上半年每股派息0.64美元。上半年派發的股息比去年同期宣布的股息高出 21%。該公司多年來每年派發的股息佔淨收入的 45% 至 55%，並且自 1941 年以來每年都派發股息。過去 20 年，PACCAR 的季度股息平均每年增長 11%。

We repurchased 345,000 shares of stock during the second quarter, with a $484 million remaining in the current Board of Directors' authorization.

第二季我們回購了 345,000 股股票，目前董事會授權的金額還剩 4.84 億美元。

PACCAR is investing in future growth with capital expenditures of $675 million to $725 million, and R&D expenses of $320 million to $340 million this year. These investments will fund enhanced aerodynamic truck models, integrated powertrains, 0 emissions electric and hydrogen fuel cell technologies, advanced driver assistance systems and truck connectivity. We're also enhancing our manufacturing and distribution facilities. At the Kenworth Chillicothe, Ohio truck factory, we added a new robotic CAD build cell and are constructing a new state-of-the-art paint facility which will lower operating costs, enhance quality and increase capacity.

PACCAR 今年將投資 6.75 億美元至 7.25 億美元用於未來成長，研發支出為 3.2 億美元至 3.4 億美元。這些投資將用於研發空氣動力學性能更好的卡車車型、整合動力系統、零排放電動和氫燃料電池技術、先進的駕駛輔助系統以及卡車互聯技術。我們也在提升我們的生產和分銷設施。在俄亥俄州奇利科西的肯沃斯卡車工廠，我們新增了一個機器人 CAD 建造單元，並且正在建造一座全新的最先進的噴漆設施，這將降低營運成本，提高品質並增加產能。

To meet increased customer demand for the popular PACCAR MX engine, we're adding machining and assembly equipment in the Columbus, Mississippi engine plant. We recently opened 2 global software R&D centers, one in Kirkland, Washington, and one in Eindhoven, The Netherlands. These centers will accelerate the development of embedded vehicle software and PACCAR connected vehicle solutions for our customers.

為了滿足客戶對廣受歡迎的 PACCAR MX 引擎日益增長的需求，我們正在密西西比州哥倫布市的引擎工廠增加加工和組裝設備。我們最近開設了 2 個全球軟體研發中心，一個位於華盛頓州柯克蘭，另一個位於荷蘭埃因霍溫。這些中心將加速為我們的客戶開發嵌入式車輛軟體和 PACCAR 互聯車輛解決方案。

In the third quarter, truck deliveries will be higher in North America due to higher build rates and lower in Europe reflecting the normal 3-week summer shutdown. Global deliveries will be 5% to 7% higher than the third quarter of last year. We forecast third quarter gross margins for Truck, Parts and Other to remain strong and be in a range of 14.5% to 15%. 2019 will be another outstanding year for the company.

第三季度，由於北美地區生產速度加快，卡車交付量將增加；而歐洲地區由於正常的三週夏季停工，卡車交付量將減少。全球交付量將比去年第三季成長 5% 至 7%。我們預測卡車、零件及其他業務第三季的毛利率將保持強勁，在 14.5% 至 15% 的範圍內。2019年對公司來說將是另一個輝煌的年份。

Harrie Schippers will now provide an update on truck markets, PACCAR Parts and PACCAR Financial Services.

哈里希珀斯將帶來卡車市場、PACCAR零件和PACCAR金融服務的最新情況介紹。

Thanks, Preston. U.S. economy is in good shape, helped by strong job markets, growing wages and increased business investment. Freight tonnage has grown a healthy 4.4% year-to-date. We've raised our estimate of U.S. and Canadian Class 8 truck industry retail sales to a range of 300,000 to 320,000 vehicles this year. We're in a period of robust customer demands, demonstrated by the historically high backlog, truck production levels and retail sales.

謝謝你，普雷斯頓。由於強勁的就業市場、不斷增長的工資和不斷增加的商業投資，美國經濟狀況良好。今年迄今為止，貨運噸位實現了健康的 4.4% 成長。我們已將今年美國和加拿大 8 級卡車行業的零售銷售預期上調至 30 萬至 32 萬輛。目前正處於客戶需求強勁的時期，這從歷史性的高訂單積壓量、卡車產量和零售額中可見一斑。

The U.S. and Canada Class 8 backlog was 188,000 trucks at the end of June. Kenworth and Peterbilt's backlog represented 36% of the industry. We are raising our European above 16-tonne market projection to a range of 300,000 to 320,000 vehicles this year. The European economies are growing at a lower rate than last year. PACCAR delivered record first half net income of $1.25 billion. PACCAR Parts achieved record first half revenues of $2.03 billion, and record pretax profits of $418 million. PACCAR has steadily increased its truck and engine market share over the years, resulting in a greater number of PACCAR trucks and engines in operation. This large and growing Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF truck part has driven 8% annual PACCAR Parts revenue growth over the last 15 years. This generates consistent high-margin profitability in all phases of the business cycle.

截至 6 月底，美國和加拿大 8 級卡車積壓量為 188,000 輛。Kenworth 和 Peterbilt 的積壓單佔業界總量的 36%。今年，我們將歐洲 16 噸以上卡車市場的預測銷售量提高到 30 萬至 32 萬輛。歐洲經濟成長速度低於去年。PACCAR公司上半年淨利創歷史新高，達12.5億美元。PACCAR Parts 上半年營收創歷史新高，達到 20.3 億美元，稅前利潤創歷史新高，達到 4.18 億美元。多年來，PACCAR 的卡車和引擎市場份額穩步增長，導致 PACCAR 的卡車和引擎投入使用的數量不斷增加。在過去 15 年裡，肯沃斯、彼得比爾特和達夫卡車零件業務規模龐大且不斷成長，推動了 PACCAR Parts 每年 8% 的營收成長。這可以在商業週期的所有階段持續產生高利潤率。

We continue to invest in the Parts business with new parts distribution centers under construction in Las Vegas, Nevada, and Ponta Grossa, Brazil. We expect parts sales to grow 5% to 7% for the full year 2019.

我們將繼續投資零件業務，目前在內華達州拉斯維加斯和巴西蓬塔格羅薩正在建造新的零件配送中心。我們預計 2019 年全年零件銷售額將成長 5% 至 7%。

PACCAR Financial Services earned second quarter pretax income of $18 million, 11% higher than the second quarter last year. The PACCAR Financial portfolio performed well. This year, PACCAR Financial will open used truck centers in Prague, Czech Republic and Denton, Texas, to support solid customer demand for DAF, Peterbilt and Kenworth trucks.

PACCAR金融服務公司第二季稅前收入為1,800萬美元，比去年同期成長11%。PACCAR Financial 的投資組合表現良好。今年，PACCAR Financial 將在捷克共和國布拉格和德克薩斯州丹頓開設二手卡車中心，以滿足客戶對 DAF、Peterbilt 和 Kenworth 卡車的強勁需求。

One of PACCAR's greatest assets does not appear on the balance sheet. I'm referring to the independent, financially strong Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF dealers, who operate more than 2,200 sales, service and TRP store locations worldwide. Our dealers reflect the industry-leading quality and premium truck brand image of Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF trucks. We're proud of our global dealer network, they are the best in the industry.

PACCAR最大的資產之一併沒有出現在資產負債表上。我指的是那些獨立營運、財務實力雄厚的 Kenworth、Peterbilt 和 DAF 經銷商，他們在全球擁有超過 2200 家銷售、服務和 TRP 商店。我們的經銷商體現了 Kenworth、Peterbilt 和 DAF 卡車行業領先的品質和高端卡車品牌形象。我們為我們的全球經銷商網路感到自豪，他們是業內最優秀的。

Thank you. We would be pleased to answer your questions.

謝謝。我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Stephen Volkmann with Jefferies.

（操作說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Stephen Volkmann。

Harrie, I wonder if I could get you to make a few more comments about some of your kind of end market visibility. And what I'm thinking about is, obviously, you said you're sort of taking orders for the first half of 2020, but of course the overall order rate has come down quite a bit and I'm curious, just kind of what you're hearing from customers and seeing in your order trends relative to demand in 2020. Do you think things tick up again as we get into the fall selling season? Or are you hearing kind of caution because freight rates have come down? Just kind of some thoughts about the quality of the 2020 order.

哈里，我想請你再談談你對終端市場可見度的看法。我想問的是，您說過您目前還在接受 2020 年上半年的訂單，但整體訂單量當然已經大幅下降。我很好奇，您從客戶那裡聽到了什麼，以及您在 2020 年的訂單趨勢與需求相比有何變化。你認為隨著秋季銷售旺季的到來，銷量會再次回升嗎？或者，你聽到的是一種謹慎的聲音，是因為運費下降了？關於2020年訂單品質的一些想法。

So if you look at the backlog for North America today, we're in really good shape. And like Preston said, we're increasing build rates in North America. Europe, the backlog's very normal and our production levels are in line with the orders and the backlog in the market as we see it today.

所以，如果你看一下北美目前的積壓訂單狀況，我們的情況非常好。正如普雷斯頓所說，我們正在提高北美地區的建築速度。歐洲的訂單積壓情況非常正常，我們目前的生產水準與市場上的訂單和積壓情況相符。

Okay. So do you have any kind of preliminary thoughts about what 2020 might look like? Obviously, the market is sort of primed for a big decline.

好的。那麼，你對2020年有什麼初步的想法嗎？顯然，市場已經做好了大幅下跌的準備。

We typically comment on 2020 once we get closer to it, so that's probably something for the next call.

我們通常會在接近 2020 年的時候再對這一年發表評論，所以這可能是下次電話會議要討論的內容了。

All right. I figured it might be worth a try. Can I sneak one more in on just kind of what you're seeing relative to pricing in the new truck environment?

好的。我想或許值得一試。我可以再補充一點，關於您在新卡車市場定價方面看到的情況嗎？

Yes. As we look at the pricing realization in trucks, on the second quarter we saw, I'm going to say a couple percent price realization, largely offset by cost. And so that's kind of in balance with each other.

是的。當我們觀察卡車定價的實現情況時，在第二季度，我們看到，我估計價格實現了幾個百分點的成長，這很大程度上被成本所抵消。所以它們之間算是保持某種平衡。

Our next question comes from Andy Casey with Wells Fargo Securities.

下一個問題來自富國證券的安迪凱西。

I have a question on the shipments. It went up about 1.5% in Q2 from Q1. It's a little different than the outlook on the short term that you gave last quarter, 2% to 4%. Was the entire difference between actual and predicted driven by Europe? And if so, I guess to piggyback on Steve's question, can you describe what your European order intake maybe was compared to last year? And then also some color around the overall market development.

我有一個關於發貨的問題。第二季比第一季成長了約1.5%。這與您上個季度給出的短期展望（2% 至 4%）略有不同。實際值與預測值之間的所有差異是否完全是由歐洲造成的？如果是這樣的話，我想藉史蒂夫的問題問一下，您能否描述一下您今年的歐洲訂單量與去年相比有何變化？此外，也對整體市場發展進行了一些分析。

Yes, so just look at the -- start at the highest level, although we did see growth in North America this year and that was, as we said, offset a little bit by what we experienced in Europe, we have really good balance here right now between our order intake and our build rates, so we've got that set up really well. And in fact, if you look at the first half market share results, we have 16.7% which is above last year's record, 16.6%. So that's set up very nicely for us right now. And we kind of see that order intake is, as I said, matching into what we're doing with build right now.

是的，所以先從最高層面來看，雖然我們今年在北美市場實現了成長，但正如我們所說，這在一定程度上被我們在歐洲市場遇到的情況所抵消，不過目前我們的訂單量和生產速度之間達到了很好的平衡，所以我們在這方面做得非常好。事實上，如果你看上半年的市佔率結果，我們達到了 16.7%，高於去年的紀錄 16.6%。所以目前這對我們來說是個非常好的局面。正如我所說，我們看到訂單量與我們現在的生產情況基本吻合。

Okay. And then, on the, just specifically looking at the truck segment margin and it pretty much seemed to be in line with what you were looking for, but flattish, up maybe 10 basis points year-over-year and then down from Q1 despite higher revenue in both cases. Can you elaborate now that the quarter is done in terms of what some of the headwinds might have been that limited those segments' ability to realize maybe some better margin leverage on that revenue growth?

好的。然後，具體來看卡車細分市場的利潤率，它似乎基本上符合你的預期，但比較平穩，同比可能只增長了 10 個基點，而且儘管收入在這兩方面都有所增長，但與第一季相比有所下降。現在季度已經結束，您能否詳細說明一下，有哪些不利因素限制了這些業務板塊在收入成長方面實現更高利潤率的能力？

Sure. I think if you look at, if you start with, you say was 14.8% in the overall gross margin feels very strong. So when we look at it from a year-over-year standpoint, truck has been able to hold on to that. I think the reason it doesn't see significant movement up is because it's already operating at a very high level. So we're at a very efficient point in the gross margins. And then I think if you just talked about it a little bit from a sequential standpoint, only difference between Q1 and Q2 has to do with really the customer mix that's happened between quarter 1 and quarter 2.

當然。我認為，如果你看一下，如果你從你說的整體毛利率為 14.8% 開始，這感覺非常強勁。所以從年比來看，卡車產業一直保持著這樣的成長動能。我認為它沒有出現明顯上漲的原因是它目前的水平已經非常高了。所以，我們目前的毛利率非常高。然後我認為，如果你從順序的角度來看，第一季和第二季之間的唯一差異實際上與第一季和第二季之間的客戶組合有關。

Our next question comes from Joel Tiss with BMO.

下一個問題來自BMO的Joel Tiss。

I wondered, just to try to be Steve for a second here, can you talk about second half production instead of just third quarter? And the production schedules and just sort of give us a little bit of an idea so maybe we can have a small window into the fourth quarter?

我想問一下，就讓我暫時扮演一下史蒂夫的角色，您能談談下半年的生產情況，而不僅僅是第三季度嗎？生產計劃表可以給我們一些信息，讓我們對第四季度的情況有個大致了解。

Well, we, if I try to talk about it in terms of second half, we have, again, North America going up in the second half. And then Europe we think is stable where we've got it right now. So we feel like those are balanced for what we would expect to see through the second half.

嗯，如果我從下半場的角度來看，北美在下半場又要崛起了。我們認為，歐洲目前的局勢是穩定的。因此，我們覺得這些結果對於我們預期在下半季看到的情況來說是平衡的。

Okay. And then beyond the customer mix, it sounded like in North America, but maybe I'm reading too much into that. Is there any negative margin? The incremental margin's at 10%, you've been kind of running 12% or 13%, is there any -- because Latin America was so strong, is that a factor in there? Or not at all?

好的。除了客戶組成之外，聽起來像是北美的情況，但也許是我過度解讀了。是否存在負利潤？增量利潤率是 10%，而你們之前一直保持在 12% 或 13%，這其中是否有一個因素——因為拉丁美洲市場表現非常強勁？或者根本不存在？

No, Latin America is a small percentage of the business still, so it really doesn't have that much weighting factor to us. I mean, there's a little bit of benefit to it but there's not a lot.

不，拉丁美洲的業務佔比仍然很小，所以它對我們來說真的沒有那麼大的權重。我的意思是，這樣做有一點好處，但不多。

Okay. And then just last, the receivable's up 30%. Is there any color you can add to that? Why is that so high?

好的。最後，應收帳款增加了 30%。還能給它加點顏色嗎？為什麼這麼高？

I believe that was increased -- increasing in the build rates has been the primary driver of that.

我認為這個數字有所增加——建築速度的提高是主要驅動因素。

Okay. It just seems like it's up a lot more than builds.

好的。看起來它的運行速度遠遠超過實際運行速度。

Our next question comes from the line of Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的傑瑞·雷維奇。

I'm wondering if you could expand on your comments on the European production adjustment that you took in the quarter to match incoming order rates. When was that -- production adjustment take place? And as we think about the third quarter, normal seasonality would have production down 5% to 10% sequentially for you in Europe, so are we on -- at the right production point entering the third quarter where we should see that normal seasonality? Or is production coming down sequentially more than that normal 5% to 10% rate?

我想請您詳細說明您在本季為匹配訂單量而對歐洲產量進行的調整。那次生產調整是什麼時候進行的？當我們展望第三季時，正常的季節性因素會導致歐洲的產量環比下降 5% 至 10%，那麼我們進入第三季時是否處於合適的生產點，從而看到正常的季節性因素？或者說，產量環比下降的幅度超過了正常的 5% 到 10% 的水平？

So the adjustments we made were just in the second quarter and again, this -- they happened throughout the second quarter, and they still delivered us this excellent market share that we saw. From the third quarter looking forward, we do have a normal summer shutdown which is a 3-week summer shutdown so there is an overall effect on the market. But from a daily build rate standpoint, we're in a good position.

因此，我們所做的調整僅限於第二季度，而且這些調整貫穿了整個第二季度，但它們仍然為我們帶來了我們所看到的優異的市場份額。從第三季開始，我們將迎來正常的夏季停工期，為期三週，因此會對市場產生整體影響。但從每日建設速度來看，我們處於有利地位。

Okay. And in North America, we obviously know that you folks are build-to-order and when market in flex, we typically see production adjustments from you folks first so when you folks are raising build rates sequentially 3Q versus 2Q, that implies that you've had a full backlog scrub and you're comfortable with the level of dealer inventories. Can you just confirm that point and that expected deliveries for 3Q have firm customer specification through them as opposed to what are some typical dealer specs?

好的。在北美，我們顯然知道你們是按訂單生產的，當市場靈活調整時，我們通常會首先看到你們的生產調整，所以當你們在第三季度比第二季度連續提高生產率時，這意味著你們已經徹底清理了積壓訂單，並且對經銷商的庫存水平感到滿意。您能否確認一下這一點，即第三季的預期交付量是否已由客戶明確確定規格，而不是由經銷商提供的典型規格？

I think you did a really nice job of characterizing it. Actually we do do backlogs to make sure we have clean orders in there and we do build to order, and as we look through that, and we see that there's still very strong order backlog. And Harrie said that 36% of the backlog for the industry is ours. And so we want to make sure we get the trucks to the customers. They need the trucks to run their businesses and so we're in the manner of building as quickly as we can for them.

我覺得你對它的描述非常到位。實際上，我們確實會進行訂單積壓，以確保訂單清晰明了，我們也是按訂單生產的。當我們查看訂單積壓情況時，發現訂單積壓仍然非常嚴重。哈里說，該行業積壓訂單中有 36% 是我們公司的。所以我們要確保把卡車送到客戶手中。他們需要這些卡車來維持業務運轉，所以我們正在盡最大努力盡快為他們建造。

And in terms of the level of dealer inventories, can you just calibrate outside of the industry statistics that we have? You mentioned a backlog worth 36% of backlog, what about out of inventories?

至於經銷商庫存水平，您能否脫離我們現有的行業統計數據進行校準？你提到積壓訂單佔總積壓訂單的 36%，那麼庫存不足的情況如何？

Well, if you think of the inventory numbers for the industry, they're at 2.8 months and for PACCAR in North America, it's 2.3, so we have our inventory in a very good position with our dealers.

嗯，如果你看一下整個行業的庫存數字，它們是 2.8 個月，而 PACCAR 在北美的庫存數字是 2.3 個月，所以我們與經銷商的庫存狀況非常好。

Our next question comes from the line of Ann Duignan with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的安·杜伊尼安。

I'd like to circle back to Europe, I mean registrations year-to-date are up closer to 10% and your deliveries are basically flat, maybe up slightly year-to-date. Can you talk about the discrepancy? Have we seen the pull forward of registrations ahead of the midyear tachograph requirement? Or is there anything unusual going on in the marketplace versus what -- how you are choosing to deliver?

我想再回到歐洲的話題，我的意思是，今年迄今為止的註冊量增長了近 10%，而你們的交付量基本上持平，可能今年迄今為止略有增長。能談談其中的差異嗎？我們是否看到在年中強制安裝行車記錄器之前，車輛登記數量有所提前？或者說，市場上是否存在什麼不尋常的情況，與您選擇提供的服務方式有何不同？

No, I think you actually nailed it, Ann. I think that remote tachograph is probably the biggest impact on what's pulled forward the orders from, in front of June 15. And so that's what we saw. We still expect to market in the 300,000 to 320,000 truck range and we should be able to have some really excellent market share, and with our build rates from the first half and second half for that.

不，我覺得你說的很對，安。我認為遠端行車記錄器可能是導致訂單提前到 6 月 15 日之前的最大因素。這就是我們所看到的。我們仍然預計卡車銷售將達到 30 萬至 32 萬輛，並且憑藉我們上半年和下半年的生產速度，我們應該能夠獲得非常優秀的市場份額。

And just as a follow-up to that, again, on Europe, and given the announcement today and the new leadership in the U.K., does that raise or reaccelerate the concerns around Brexit and the impact that that could have on freight and just the whole industry as we get closer to the end of the year? Or what are you hearing over there in terms of -- now it sounds like it's a little bit more definitive.

作為對上述問題的後續討論，再次談到歐洲，鑑於今天的公告和英國的新領導層，隨著年底臨近，這是否會加劇或重新引發人們對英國脫歐的擔憂，以及脫歐可能對貨運和整個行業產生的影響？或者，你那邊聽到的消息是怎樣的——現在聽起來好像更有定論了。

Yes. So one of the nice things for us is we are the market leader in the U.K. We do a great job all around Europe and our share's up in Europe and up in the U.K. also specifically. So as we look at what might happen with Brexit, we have a great advantage in that we do manufacture all our truck models for the U.K., in the U.K. So I don't know what the outcomes will be, but PACCAR's really well positioned with our manufacturing base in Europe to take advantage of it either way it goes.

是的。對我們來說，有利的一點是，我們在英國是市場領導者。我們在整個歐洲都做得很好，我們在歐洲的市場份額不斷增長，尤其是在英國的市場份額也在增長。所以，展望英國脫歐可能帶來的後果，我們擁有一個巨大的優勢，因為我們所有面向​​英國市場的卡車車型都是在英國本土生產的。因此，我不知道最終結果會如何，但憑藉我們在歐洲的生產基地，無論結果如何，PACCAR 都處於非常有利的地位，能夠從中受益。

Yes, I meant more broadly, what impact it might have on just freight and the whole European economy. Any comments on that?

是的，我的意思是更廣泛地講，它可能對貨運和整個歐洲經濟產生什麼影響。對此有何評論？

Yes, I don't think we know that answer any better than anybody else. I would say that we've been pleasantly surprised with how the U.K. has performed in the first half of the year. There has been strong customer demand in the first half and that's been great.

是的，我認為我們並不比其他人更了解這個問題的答案。我想說，英國上半年的表現讓我們感到驚喜。上半年客戶需求強勁，非常好。

Our next question comes from David Leiker with Baird.

下一個問題來自 Baird 公司的 David Leiker。

I wanted to talk about this kind of triangle effect between orders, backlog, inventory, you can throw cancels in there. Now what we're going through here in North America is while the order rates have fallen, the backlogs have remained elevated. And I'm not sure we've ever gone through a period of falling orders where backlogs remained elevated. I'm wondering if that may change a little bit of the economics of the earnings you might see as these lower order rates flow through the numbers?

我想談談訂單、積壓訂單、庫存之間的這種三角關係，當然，取消訂單也可以算在其中。現在我們在北美面臨的情況是，雖然訂單量下降了，但積壓訂單仍然居高不下。我不確定我們是否經歷過訂單下降但積壓訂單仍然居高不下的時期。我想知道，隨著訂單率下降，這是否會對收益的經濟效益產生一些影響？

I think one thing to keep in mind is the bigger picture, what happened last year, we had 458,000 industry orders last year. So that's a big number and it takes a while for that to normalize through things. But it's not going to have any effect on our financial performance. We've got great financial performance and our dealers are doing really well and our customers love the trucks. And so those things continue to work well and the results will be solid.

我認為需要記住的一點是著眼於大局，看看去年發生了什麼，我們去年獲得了 458,000 個行業訂單。這是一個很大的數字，需要一段時間才能透過各種因素恢復正常。但這並不會對我們的財務表現產生任何影響。我們的財務表現非常出色，經銷商的表現也非常好，我們的客戶都很喜歡我們的卡車。因此，這些措施繼續有效，結果也會很可靠。

Great. And then just, I'm going to pick on Europe also. Any particular markets or areas over there that you're feeling more worried than the others? I mean a lot of those -- a lot of your customers from those markets are exporting out of Europe into other parts of the world as well.

偉大的。然後，我還要拿歐洲開涮。你對那邊的哪些特定市場或地區感到格外擔憂？我的意思是，很多來自這些市場的客戶——你們很多來自這些市場的客戶——也從歐洲出口到世界其他地區。

No, I think that Europe has done really well this year for us. I mean, obviously we have the market range of 300,000 to 320,000 trucks and us gaining share. So this would be the fourth year in a row above 300,000. If it stays like this, and that's a fantastic market size and the DAF team, all the employees and teams, the dealers are doing a great job of growing the business. And the customers love the trucks and the fuel economy's outstanding. And it's working really well.

不，我認為歐洲今年對我們來說表現非常出色。我的意思是，很明顯，我們的市場規模在 30 萬到 32 萬輛卡車之間，而且我們正在不斷擴大市場份額。所以這將是連續第四年銷售超過 30 萬。如果這種情況持續下去，那麼市場規模將非常可觀，DAF 團隊、所有員工和團隊以及經銷商在發展業務方面都做得非常出色。顧客們都很喜歡這些卡車，而且它們的燃油經濟性非常出色。而且效果非常好。

Our next question comes from Steven Fisher with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的史蒂文費雪。

How do the orders that you guys have taken for 2020 compare to the level of what you typically take in at this time of the year for the following year? I assume it's got to be much higher. And if that's so, I guess why are -- I guess going back to Steve Volkmann's question, why are customers rushing to place orders if freight fundamentals are softening?

你們2020年接獲的訂單量與往年同期接獲的訂單量相比如何？我估計實際數值肯定要高得多。如果真是這樣，我想回到史蒂夫沃克曼提出的問題，如果貨運基本面正在走軟，為什麼客戶還要爭相下單呢？

Well, I would say it this way. As I'd say, we probably, just get to the first part of your question, we do see order intake for 2020 higher than we might typically see it. That's in large part because in a different market, you might see that there is a lot more activity surrounding about filling 3Q and 4Q of the current year you're in, but since that's substantially full, there is interest in 2020. And so that's kind of just, I think where people's energies go to.

嗯，我會這樣說。正如我所說，我們可能會…就你問題的第一部分而言，我們確實預計 2020 年的訂單量將高於往年同期水準。這主要是因為在不同的市場中，你可能會看到圍繞著填補當前年份第三季度和第四季度的空缺而開展的活動更多，但由於這些季度的空缺已經基本填滿，所以人們對 2020 年產生了興趣。所以我覺得，人們的精力大概都集中在這方面了。

But with freight fundamentals softening, why wouldn't they just wait it out a little bit to see how the rest of the year is going to go?

但由於貨運基本面疲軟，他們為什麼不稍作等待，看看今年剩餘時間的走勢？

I think some people do. But freight fundamentals are really mixed, right? We have a great economy in North America. GDP growth is occurring. I think through May, ATA truck tonnage was up 4.4% so there's not like things are going badly. And we spend a lot of time as a team, our employees and our dealers talking to customers and, customers are doing a good job. You see the truck companies' earnings reports and they're coming out really strong in a lot of cases. So there's lot of reason for optimism, too.

我認為有些人確實會這麼想。但貨運基本面確實喜憂參半，對吧？北美經濟非常發達。國內生產毛額正在成長。我認為截至5月份，ATA卡車運輸噸位增加了4.4%，所以情況並沒有惡化。我們團隊，包括我們的員工和經銷商，會花很多時間與客戶溝通，而客戶也做得很好。你看卡車公司的獲利報告，很多情況下業績都非常強勁。所以，也有很多理由保持樂觀。

Got it. And then you said that the cost offset price in the quarter. It sounded like price, you said it was a couple of percent, which may be down 1% or so from the first quarter. I would have expected costs to be coming down so I guess why was the pricing growth moderating? And should we be expecting that costs are actually coming down going forward here?

知道了。然後你說成本抵銷了季度價格。聽起來像是價格方面的問題，你說下降了百分之幾，這可能比第一季下降了百分之一左右。我原本預期成本會下降，所以我想問一下，為什麼價格成長放緩了？我們是否可以預期未來成本會下降？

Do you want to provide color-?

你想提供顏色嗎？

It's like Preston just said, it's mostly customer mix that pricing was aligned with the cost increases, more or less.

就像普雷斯頓剛才說的那樣，主要是客戶群的變化，價格才與成本上漲基本保持一致。

And what was that customer mix difference between the Q2 and Q1?

第二季和第一季客戶組成有何不同？

So the customer differences in the first quarter, a lot of dealers will have stock trucks on their lots and those are, they're small quantity buys and then we get to a more distributed look at customer mix in the second quarter. So there's still the stock orders but then there's just the low to large-sized customer orders come in.

因此，第一季的客戶差異在於，許多經銷商的停車場裡會有庫存卡車，這些都是小批量購買，而第二季的客戶組成則更加分散。所以除了庫存訂單之外，還有從小到大的各種客戶訂單。

Our next question comes from Seth Weber with RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的塞思‧韋伯。

I just wanted to go back. I think your guidance for the parts revenue growth for this year, you moderated the top end, I think you're now saying 5% to 7%, it was previously 5% to 8%. Is there anything you would call out there that is causing the, just sort of the moderation?

我只想回去。我認為您下調了今年零件收入成長的預期上限，現在您說的是 5% 到 7%，之前是 5% 到 8%。您認為造成這種程度的適度波動的原因是什麼？

Yes, sure. The parts business is really doing fantastic, continues to perform at a high level. Take the opportunity to say this, we look at where investments are going in that business, and the new distribution centers in Ponta Grossa, Brazil and Las Vegas and the way the team is moving through their initiatives with things like e-commerce, and TRP growth is really fantastic. The only reason for any adjustment is really a currency effect that we pushed into the 5% to 7%.

當然可以。零件業務表現非常出色，持續保持高水準。藉此機會說一句，我們關注著該業務的投資方向，以及在巴西蓬塔格羅薩和拉斯維加斯新建的配送中心，還有團隊在電子商務等領域推進各項舉措的方式，TRP 的增長真的非常出色。唯一需要調整的原因實際上是匯率波動，我們將其推高至 5% 到 7%。

Yes. It's the revenues in Europe in euros that translate into fewer dollars but we -- when we do the translation.

是的。歐洲的收入以歐元計價，換算成美元會更少，但是——當我們進行換算時。

Got it, that's helpful. And then, maybe just a quick follow-up. The FinCo margin actually came down sequentially. Is there anything that you'd call out there? And is that sort of the run rate we should think of going forward?

明白了，這很有幫助。然後，或許只要簡單跟進一下。FinCo的利潤率實際上是季減。有什麼想指出的嗎？那麼，我們未來應該考慮的運行速度就是這個水準嗎？

I don't think so. I don't think it's -- when we look at the new business generation, it's actually up quarter-over-quarter, so it's more about portfolio that I think you're talking about and that the team is doing really good. If you looked at their earnings per quarter, it went up to $80 million into the $164 million in the first half and it's just doing fantastic.

我不這麼認為。我不認為這是——當我們審視新業務的生成情況時，它實際上每個季度都在增長，所以這更多的是關於投資組合，我認為你指的是這一點，而且團隊做得非常好。如果你看他們每季的收益，上半年從 8,000 萬美元成長到 1.64 億美元，表現非常出色。

Our next question comes from Ross Gilardi with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的羅斯·吉拉迪。

I was just wondering, what are you seeing in the Mexican truck market? And what would you do if some of the trade tensions that started to rematerialize a couple of months ago came back? And do you think your overall footprint in North America, given your relative lack of exposure to Mexican production is behind any of the order share strength that you've seen? In other words, are customers perhaps ordering more from PACCAR just because there's greater surety of supply given some of your competitors being relatively more exposed to Mexican production?

我只是想問，你對墨西哥卡車市場有什麼看法？如果幾個月前開始重新出現的一些貿易緊張局勢再次出現，你會怎麼做？鑑於您在墨西哥的生產方面相對缺乏投入，您認為您在北美的整體業務規模是否是您所看到的訂單份額增長背後的原因？換句話說，客戶是否因為PACCAR的供應更有保障（因為一些競爭對手相對而言更依賴墨西哥的生產）而增加了從PACCAR的訂單？

I think the team in Mexico is just doing a really good job down there. We have great trucks, obviously, the newest trucks we've introduced, the latest generation are fantastically well received by the customers. And so their share was exceptionally good. And if you look at -- there was an emissions change that happened in the middle of the year. So there was a strong buy ahead of that. But even since then, order intake has been positive and doing quite well. I don't think it's really affected by where people think we're going to build the trucks. We obviously can build trucks in Mexico for Mexico, we can make our domestic U.S. and Canadian production in local markets, so. I think we just have a great manufacturing footprint that works well and I don't think there's anything about trade tensions affecting that, I think it's more about great trucks and people.

我認為墨西哥隊在那裡的表現非常出色。我們擁有很棒的卡車，很顯然，我們最新推出的卡車，也就是最新一代的卡車，受到了客戶的熱烈歡迎。因此，他們分得的份額格外豐厚。如果你看一下——年中排放量發生了變化。所以在此之前出現了一波強勁的買入。但即便如此，自那以後，訂單量一直保持良好勢頭，表現相當不錯。我不認為這會受到人們認為我們會在哪裡生產卡車的影響。我們顯然可以在墨西哥生產卡車，供應墨西哥市場；我們可以在美國和加拿大進行國內生產，以滿足當地市場的需求。我認為我們擁有非常完善的製造體系，而且運作良好，我不認為貿易緊張局勢會對這一點產生任何影響，我認為這更多的是關於優秀的卡車和人才。

I guess that's the point. Most of what you produce in Mexico is for the Mexican market, correct? And if you did see tariffs all of a sudden actually come back and put into place, do you feel like you have sufficient capacity in the U.S. market to just relocate some of that production in a very short-term basis?

我想這就是關鍵。你們在墨西哥生產的產品大多是供應墨西哥市場，對嗎？如果關稅真的突然恢復並生效，您是否覺得美國市場有足夠的產能，可以在很短的時間內將部分生產轉移過去？

Yes. We do have that capability.

是的。我們確實具備這種能力。

Okay. And then I think you made a comment about adding engine capacity in Mississippi, if I heard it right. And wondering if you could talk a little bit more about that. Are you seeing share shift more towards the MX engine with the trucks that you're selling?

好的。然後，如果我沒聽錯的話，你好像還提到了在密西西比州增加引擎產能。不知道您是否可以再多談談這方面的內容。在你銷售的卡車中，你是否發現MX引擎的市佔率正在逐漸增加？

The MX engine, MX-11 and 13 engines, are doing really well. They're providing I think just outstanding fuel economy in the market space. People have had time to get used to them obviously now. And we're seeing strong demand from our customers for those engines for their light weight and high performance. So we've increased our capacity in Columbus and just recently finished that capacity increase at the end of the second quarter and going to be able to build some more engines for our customers in the second half.

MX系列發動機，包括MX-11和MX-13發動機，表現非常出色。我認為它們在市場上提供了非常出色的燃油經濟性。人們現在顯然已經習慣了。我們看到客戶對這些引擎的需求強勁，因為它們重量輕、性能高。因此，我們提高了哥倫布工廠的產能，並在第二季末完成了產能提升，下半年將能夠為我們的客戶生產更多引擎。

Can you say roughly how much you've increased capacity in Columbus?

你能大概說說你們在哥倫布的產能提高了多少嗎？

It's been meaningful, but it's 10% to 20% kind of numbers.

雖然有意義，但佔比只有 10% 到 20%。

Got it. And just lastly, on Brazil, maybe you could comment there. I mean, you've had obviously pretty explosive growth over the last couple of years. Remind us where you are on market share. And I think, from the beginning, the target was to get to 10% in 5 to 6 years. As you continue to get closer to that number, do you start to grow more in line with the Brazilian market in the next couple of years?

知道了。最後，關於巴西，您或許可以發表一下看法。我的意思是，你們在過去幾年顯然取得了非常迅猛的成長。請告知我們您目前的市佔率狀況。我認為，從一開始，目標就是在 5 到 6 年內達到 10%。隨著您不斷接近這個數字，未來幾年您的成長方式是否會更符合巴西市場的發展趨勢？

The trucks, the DAF trucks in Brazil are working very, very well for our customers. I was down there just a couple of months ago and the dealers and customers are really excited with the performance they get, reliability and durability and fuel economy that they're providing in Brazil. So that's enabling our continued growth. From a year-over-year standpoint, market share is up just a bit and it'll continue to grow, continue to make investments in Brazil. Parts business is doing really well down there. In the middle of building a new distribution center in Ponta Grossa, 160,000 square-foot distribution center in Ponta Grossa, which will support the business growth. And the market overall is improving in Brazil. So really feeling good about the efforts our team has made down there, the results they're bringing, the success with the dealers now, and just how the business is going to continue forward.

這些卡車，特別是巴西的 DAF 卡車，為我們的客戶提供了非常好的服務。我幾個月前去過那裡，經銷商和客戶對他們在巴西提供的性能、可靠性、耐用性和燃油經濟性都非常滿意。因此，這使我們能夠持續發展。從同比來看，市佔率略有上升，並將繼續成長，繼續在巴西進行投資。那裡的零件生意非常好。在蓬塔格羅薩建造一座新的配送中心，佔地 16 萬平方英尺，將支援業務成長。巴西市場整體情況正在好轉。所以，我對我們團隊在那裡付出的努力、他們所取得的成果、現在與經銷商的成功以及業務未來的發展方向都感到非常滿意。

Our next question comes from the line of Jamie Cook with Crédit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Jamie Cook。

I guess just a question, specifically, what is your visibility in 2020 this quarter relative to last quarter? I'm just trying to understand if it's increased and to what degree? And then my second question is, assuming industry forecasts are correct next year, I'm just -- if you can walk us through, is there anything we should consider with regards to decrementals relative to previous cycles in the sense that, one, I would assume the parts business obviously helps your margins, you have the content on the MX engine, at the same time one could argue you're more vertically integrated and R&D costs should be structurally higher. So if there's anything you could help us out with? And then, one, is the, are the shift decrementals being meaningfully different in Europe versus the U.S?

我只想問一個具體問題，您認為2020年本季與上季相比，業績前景如何？我只是想了解它是否增加了，以及增加了多少？我的第二個問題是，假設產業預測明年是正確的，我只是想——如果您能給我們詳細解釋一下，相對於之前的周期，我們是否應該考慮一些遞減因素？一方面，我認為零件業務顯然有助於提高利潤率，你們擁有MX引擎的內容，但同時有人可能會說你們的垂直整​​合程度更高，研發成本也應該結構性地更高。有什麼你能幫我們做的嗎？其次，歐洲和美國的轉變遞減幅度是否有顯著差異？

Sure. There's a lot of questions in there, I'll make sure if I can get them right for you. From a 2020 order intake, I think that we're seeing, as I said earlier, a higher percentage than we do typically. We have great visibility, that means, comparatively to normal times for 2020. I might decline to kind of really talk about a specific value there, but it feels positive compared to previous years. From a effect of what 2020's overall market's going to be, I think as Harrie said and we'd all say is, it's a little early to be talking about what the full market size is going to be in 2020.

當然。裡面有很多問題，我會確保能幫您解答清楚。從 2020 年的訂單量來看，正如我之前所說，我們看到的百分比比平常高。我們有很好的能見度，也就是說，與 2020 年的正常時期相比。我可能不會具體談論某個數值，但與往年相比，感覺是正面的。至於 2020 年整體市場狀況的影響，我認為正如哈利所說，我們所有人都會說，現在談論 2020 年的完整市場規模還為時過早。

And from an effect on decremental margin or margins or incremental margins as they may end up being, I'd say, that we see that, we keep our operating cost really low and I think that means there's relatively minor shifts in the decremental or incremental margins and continue to provide great value to our -- to the margin, the overall margin, stateside.

從對利潤率或增量利潤率的影響來看，我認為，我們保持了非常低的營運成本，這意味著利潤率或增量利潤率的變化相對較小，並繼續為我們在美國的整體利潤率提供巨大的價值。

Okay. But no meaningful difference relative to previous downturns? I mean is there any structural reason why decrementals would be better? Or just, I mean if you're right on the top line in incrementals, that's a different question, but are decremental to...

好的。但與先前的經濟衰退相比，並無實質差異？我的意思是，從結構上講，遞減式貨幣有什麼優勢嗎？或者，我的意思是，如果你正好處於增量的頂端，那是另一個問題，但對於遞減的增量來說…

No. I don't think so.

不。我不這麼認為。

Our next question comes from Courtney Yakavonis with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Courtney Yakavonis。

Just going back to Andy's question on your production this quarter. I think you had originally forecasted that all of the increase would be from North America. It kind looks like it was pretty evenly split between North America and other. So was your North America production in line with your expectations? I know we discussed Europe kind of at length, but just wanted to confirm that.

回到安迪剛才問的關於你們本季產量的問題。我認為你最初預測所有成長都將來自北美。看起來北美和其他地區的比例相當平均。那麼，你們在北美的生產情況是否符合預期？我知道我們已經就歐洲問題進行了相當長時間的討論，但我還是想確認一下。

Yes, our North American production was in line with expectation. I think the only place where there was any slight change was in Europe, where we just made sure we got our build rates adjusted to the market. So that's the overall effect.

是的，我們在北美的生產符合預期。我認為唯一略有變化的地方是歐洲，我們只是確保將建設速度調整到與市場相適應的程度。這就是整體效果。

Okay. Got you. And then just on the CapEx raise, just wanted to make sure, is this similar to last quarter where it's a lot of projects getting done faster or moving more quickly than expected? Or are there any new projects that we should be thinking about?

好的。抓到你了。關於資本支出增加，我想確認一下，這是否與上個季度類似，即許多項目完成得更快或進展比預期更快？或者，我們是否應該考慮一些新的項目？

Sure. We -- it's really fun, I mean we're making these great investments in the future for the company and so that's why you're seeing the CapEx changes, but we had just some fantastic opportunities that are really, in terms of our capacity and quality in our factories, our distribution centers for parts and used trucks. And then maybe most importantly, for the long-term benefit is the investments in new products that we're creating. And so we have a lot of programs going on and they're successfully moving along. And we think it's really building a bright future for us.

當然。我們——這真的很有趣，我的意思是，我們正在為公司的未來進行這些偉大的投資，所以你才會看到資本支出的變化，但我們確實有一些絕佳的機會，這些機會確實提升了我們工廠的產能和質量，以及我們的零部件和二手卡車配送中心。然後，或許最重要的是，從長遠來看，我們正在對新產品進行投資。因此，我們有很多專案正在進行，而且它們都在順利進行中。我們認為這確實在為我們打造一個美好的未來。

Okay. Got you. And then just finally, in South America, I think you slightly reduced your industry guidance there. I just wanted to confirm that and maybe how it compares. I think last quarter you had guided to Brazil, up 65,000 to 75,000, just wanted to understand the dynamics at play there?

好的。抓到你了。最後，在南美洲，我認為你們稍微降低了對當地的產業指導。我只是想確認一下，也想了解兩者之間的差異。我認為上個季度你們對巴西市場的預測是成長6.5萬至7.5萬，我只是想了解那裡的市場動態？

No, I think the guidance for Brazil is the same as what we did last time. I think for total South America, the range might have dropped 5,000. So from a, I think we're now...

不，我認為對巴西的指導方針和我們上次的做法是一樣的。我認為整個南美洲的範圍可能下降了 5000。所以，從一開始，我認為我們現在…

100,000 to 110,000 for South America in total.

南美洲總計10萬至11萬人。

Yes. But it's outside Brazil.

是的。但它位於巴西境外。

Brazil is still guiding at 70,000 as a midpoint, 65,000 to 75,000; South America at 100,000 to 110,000.

巴西的指導價仍為 7 萬，中間值為 6.5 萬至 7.5 萬；南美洲為 10 萬至 11 萬。

Our next question comes from Jeff Kauffman with Loop Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 Loop Capital Markets 的 Jeff Kauffman。

A lot of my questions have been answered at this point. Just a couple of nits. You mentioned that you are seeing orders for 2020 at this point, yet we do know there are some aspects of the trucking markets seeing pain, particularly on the pricing side, to your point, not so much the volumes. Have you seen any change on the specs that customers are asking for 2020 versus 2019?

到目前為止，我的許多疑問都得到了解答。就幾點小瑕疵。您提到目前已經收到了 2020 年的訂單，但我們確實知道卡車運輸市場的某些方面正在遭受痛苦，特別是價格方面，正如您所說，而不是數量方面。您是否注意到客戶對 2020 年和 2019 年的規格要求有任何變化？

No. It's a nice question. I think that really, the customers are always looking for the most fuel-efficient, lowest operating cost trucks that they can find. And that's the beauty of being PACCAR, is we provide that to our customers. We have this passionate team of people who do a great job of making sure that the trucks we develop and sell are really at the best and most efficient vehicles for our customers. And so I think that's what they're always looking at. We're always talking to the customers, to make sure the specs stay lined up that way but there hasn't been any fundamental shift.

不。這是一個很好的問題。我認為，客戶實際上總是在尋找燃油效率最高、營運成本最低的卡車。這就是 PACCAR 的優勢所在，我們能夠為客戶提供這種服務。我們擁有一支充滿熱情、兢兢業業的團隊，他們致力於確保我們開發和銷售的卡車真正成為客戶心目中最優秀、最高效的車輛。所以我覺得他們一直在關注的就是這一點。我們一直與客戶溝通，以確保規格保持一致，但並沒有任何根本性的改變。

Okay. And then just one last nit. I did notice the tax rate was up a little bit sequentially from the first quarter. That could be just randomness but I'm wondering, might that have to do with maybe more profitability being driven out of North America? What should I be thinking in terms of tax rate for the full year?

好的。最後還有一個小問題。我注意到稅率比第一季略有上升。這可能只是隨機現象，但我很好奇，這是否與北美地區利潤成長放緩有關？我應該考慮全年的稅率是多少？

Yes. I think you hit it on the head there. It's the income mix in North America tax rates. So including the states, they're a little bit higher than Europe, and so that affected the quarter.

是的。我覺得你說得完全正確。這是北美稅率中的所得構成問題。所以，如果把美國也算進去，它們比歐洲略高一些，因此影響了本季業績。

Our next question comes from Joe O'Dea with Vertical Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research 的 Joe O'Dea。

With the North America build rate going up in 3Q, I think historically it's not uncommon to then see it come down in 4Q, but that's usually with Europe going up. And so I'm just curious with some of what's going on in Europe right now, should we expect that your current plans at this point are that that increase in the build rate in North America for 3Q is something that you would maintain in 4Q?

北美地區的建築率在第三季上升，我認為從歷史數據來看，第四季下降並不罕見，但這通常是由於歐洲地區的建築率上升所致。所以，我很好奇，鑑於目前歐洲的一些情況，我們是否可以預期，您目前的計劃是，在北美地區第三季提高生產力的勢頭將延續到第四季？

Yes. We have a strong backlog, as we said. It's substantially full for the second half, and so we don't see any reason not to think the build rate stays roughly where it is for the fourth quarter in the U.S. and Canada.

是的。正如我們所說，我們積壓了大量訂單。下半年基本上已滿，因此我們認為沒有理由不認為美國和加拿大的第四季建設速度將大致保持不變。

But you're right, that the fourth quarter in the U.S. and Canada will have more holidays than the third quarter and Europe is just the opposite.

但你說得對，美國和加拿大的第四季假期會比第三季多，而歐洲的情況則相反。

So daily build rates, it doesn't change necessarily overall.

所以每日建造速度整體不一定會改變。

Just a question on the daily build rate, so, yes. And then from the, your comments around months of inventory and industry at 2.8, you're at 2.3. Historically, the industry average is in the low 2s. So I'm just curious, I mean historically, where you average as we think about sort of through-cycle targets?

關於每日建造速度的問題，是的。然後，根據你關於庫存和行業月份為 2.8 的評論，你的結果是 2.3。從歷史數據來看，產業平均值在 2 左右。所以我很好奇，我的意思是，從歷史數據來看，當我們考慮週期性目標時，你們的平均水平是多少？

This is within our normal band and it's kind of a healthy space to be.

這在我們正常的範圍內，而且是一種健康的心態。

Perfect. And then just one on the 2020 orders you're taking, how does that pricing compare to 2019?

完美的。那麼，就您目前接受的 2020 年訂單而言，價格與 2019 年相比如何？

It just depends on the customer, but the pricing is fairly consistent right now.

這取決於客戶，但目前價格相當穩定。

Our next question comes from Neil Frohnapple with Buckingham Research.

下一個問題來自白金漢研究公司的尼爾‧弗羅納普爾。

Is inventory at your used truck centers starting to rise at all? And any thoughts on the used truck market in North America and Europe both from a demand and pricing standpoint?

你們二手卡車中心的庫存是否有增加？您對北美和歐洲的二手卡車市場，從需求和價格角度來看，有什麼看法？

Yes. I think if you look at the used trucks, maybe the pricing has moderated a bit from where it was in Q1, but one of the nice things about being part of PACCAR is our trucks have commanded a 10% to 15% premium in the market. And as we've watched our market share grow over the past several years, we've invested in creating a great used truck capability, selling capability, so that's why we've got this new facility, used truck facility we're building in Denton, Texas. A few years ago we did one in Los Angeles. In Europe, we're creating one in Prague, in the Czech Republic as well. And then adding on capacity. We have a fantastic dealer network that does a good job of managing used trucks and distributing used trucks to customers. So between our premium position and our capability, we feel like we're in a good space.

是的。我認為，如果你看看二手卡車，價格可能比第一季有所回落，但作為 PACCAR 的一員，好處之一是我們的卡車在市場上享有 10% 到 15% 的溢價。隨著過去幾年市場份額的成長，我們投資打造了強大的二手卡車銷售能力，因此我們在德克薩斯州丹頓市建造了這個新的二手卡車設施。幾年前我們在洛杉磯也舉辦過一次。在歐洲，我們也在捷克共和國的布拉格建造一座。然後增加產能。我們擁有一個出色的經銷商網絡，他們在二手卡車管理和二手卡車分銷給客戶方面做得很好。憑藉我們的領先地位和自身實力，我們感覺我們處於有利地位。

Okay. And as a follow-up on that, if used truck prices were to continue to moderate, what's the time lag as far as when that would start impacting the FinCo profitability? I think it usually runs through that Interest and Other line? Is there a couple of quarter lag? Or any thoughts there?

好的。此外，如果二手卡車價格繼續趨於溫和，那麼多久之後才會開始影響 FinCo 的獲利能力？我認為它通常會列在“利息和其他”那一欄裡？是否存在幾季的滯後？或者大家有什麼想法嗎？

Yes. I don't think we've kind of calibrated into which quarter it would have an impact on and obviously it will depend on the amount of the fact and it depends a lot on the percent of retail versus wholesale, and our team has done a really good job of selling a lot of used trucks in a retail position, so there's too many mix effects in there to really characterize it.

是的。我認為我們還沒有準確判斷它會對哪個季度產生影響，顯然這取決於具體情況，也很大程度上取決於零售與批發的比例，而我們的團隊在零售渠道銷售二手卡車方面做得非常出色，所以其中涉及的混合效應太多，難以準確描述。

Okay. And then just one final one. On the medium duty market here in North America, any notable changes to the outlook? What you're seeing from customers, market share, et cetera?

好的。最後還有一個。北美中型卡車市場前景是否有任何顯著變化？您從客戶、市場佔有率等方面了解到的情況如何？

Yes, sure. Thanks for the questions. No, the market size seems consistent to what we've said previously, and 100,000 units plus or minus, and the business is doing really well. I think that our trucks are performing well in the space, and our market share will be roughly in the same range.

當然可以。謝謝大家的提問。不，市場規模似乎與我們之前所說的一致，大約在 10 萬台左右，而且業務發展得非常好。我認為我們的卡車在這個領域表現良好，我們的市場份額也將大致保持在同一水平。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Robert Wertheimer with Melius.

（操作說明）我們的下一個問題來自 Melius 公司的 Robert Wertheimer。

My question is pretty simple. I wonder if you could remind us of the mechanics on orders for next year. Is the order book open for all models and configurations? And then is pricing established or people are just sort of just taking a bet on it and is that the same as every year or this year?

我的問題很簡單。我想請您提醒我們明年訂單的具體細節。所有車型和配置都接受預訂嗎？那麼，定價是既定的，還是人們只是在碰運氣？這種情況和往年一樣，還是今年一樣？

So I would say that the order book is open for all trucks and all models. We love taking orders for trucks, it's something we enjoy a lot. And when I think about it in terms of the pricing being established, in the deals that we're discussing right now, those end up being with the customers and they end up being focused around what we've done previously and what their spec is and what we're doing. So those end up being worked through almost individually.

所以我認為，所有卡車和所有型號的訂單都已開放。我們喜歡接貨車訂單，這是我們非常享受的事情。當我思考定價問題時，在我們現在討論的交易中，最終都是與客戶協商確定的，而且最終都會圍繞我們之前所做的工作、他們的規格以及我們正在做的事情。所以這些問題最後幾乎都是逐一解決的。

Our next question comes from Scott Group with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究公司的斯科特集團。

It's Rob on for Scott. A quick clarification question, with regard to the build rate, am I hearing it right that you guys are basically planning on maintaining the third quarter level of production in the fourth quarter? Or is there some increase you're implying there in the back half guidance?

羅布代替斯科特上場。關於生產速度，我有個問題想請教一下，我理解的沒錯吧，你們基本上計劃在第四季保持第三季的產量水準？或者，您是在暗示下半年業績預期會有成長嗎？

I think that the firm space is the third quarter going up and then we watch where the fourth quarter, as we substantially are full, we'll watch what the fourth quarter does. But I don't expect to see any significant shifts.

我認為第三季市場前景良好，之後我們會觀察第四季的情況，因為我們基本上已經飽和了，所以我們會觀察第四季的走勢。但我預計不會有任何重大變化。

That's helpful. And your preliminary comments about the order book and the strength looking out to next year, were you guys intimating that we could see revenue actually be up next year?

那很有幫助。你們之前對訂單狀況和明年前景的初步評論，是否暗示明年的收入可能會有所增長？

I don't think we intimated next year.

我認為我們沒有暗示明年。

And then just a couple of quick questions with regard to the used truck market. You said you saw it soften up a little bit. Could you describe if you're seeing that in 1 specific channel, i.e., kind of small fleets or kind of the owner-operator end of the marketplace? And what sort of increase on a year-over-year basis you're seeing from a price realization currently would be helpful as well.

最後，我還想問幾個關於二手卡車市場的問題。你說你看到它稍微軟化了一些。您能否描述一下您是否在某個特定管道中看到這種情況，例如，小型車隊或市場上的個體經營者？此外，您目前看到的實際價格與去年同期相比有何成長也請告知。

Yes. I think it's -- we think about it in terms of the PACCAR products, Kenworth and Peterbilt, North America; DAF in Europe are just -- they command a premium, so it's a relative positioning to the competition; they're doing really well. And then, I think from a, as I said earlier, I think a lot of effect has to do with how many trucks are coming back in and what percent you retail those trucks out, and we've been able to grow our retail percentage, especially in North America which has brought us good results. As far as the overall trends to the market, I think those vagarities are difficult to plan forward to. But we'll watch them. We have a great team that's managing that business really well.

是的。我認為——我們從 PACCAR 產品、Kenworth 和 Peterbilt 在北美市場的角度來看；DAF 在歐洲市場——它們的價格較高，所以這是相對於競爭對手的相對定位；它們做得非常好。然後，我認為，正如我之前所說，很大程度上取決於有多少卡車返回以及你將這些卡車零售出去的比例，我們已經能夠提高零售比例，尤其是在北美，這給我們帶來了良好的結果。至於市場的整體趨勢，我認為這些變數很難預測。但我們會密切關注他們。我們有一個很棒的團隊，他們把這項業務管理得非常好。

That's helpful. Final one, which I guess kind of relates to the FinCo, as we a saw slight uptick in the provision for losses on receivables, obviously still at a low level, and that was a sequential uptick, so nicely improved on a year-over-year basis. What's driving that? Is that just some of the small carriers that you're seeing a little bit of softening in terms of their receivables, or is this...

那很有幫助。最後一點，我想這與金融公司有關，因為我們看到應收帳款損失準備金略有上升，顯然仍然處於較低水平，而且這是一個環比上升，因此同比有了顯著改善。是什麼原因導致這種情況？是指部分小型業者的應收帳款略有下降，還是說…

Most of that is due to the larger portfolio. Past due remain -- past due's remained really low, the credit losses remain low, the portfolio has managed really well, so we've got a lot of good customers that make money with their trucks and pay their bills on time.

這主要是由於投資組合規模較大。逾期款項依然很少——逾期款項仍然很低，信貸損失也很低，投資組合管理得非常好，所以我們有很多優質客戶，他們靠卡車賺錢，並且按時支付賬單。

Our next question comes from David Raso from Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 公司的 David Raso。

Quick question. North America, I know you've sliced that U.S., Canada, how you get deliveries, but in your commentary about your backlog, can you just help us a bit with your U.S./Canada, or one defined as North America, your backlog year-over-year as we sit today, just some sense of the year-over-year in that position.

問個問題。北美，我知道你們已經把美國、加拿大劃分開來，也談到了你們的交付方式，但在你們關於積壓訂單的評論中，你們能否稍微幫我們看一下你們美國/加拿大，或者說整個北美地區，截至目前為止的年度積壓訂單情況，讓我們了解一下這個地區同比的情況。

Well, it's up substantially year-over-year from a normal cycle. Obviously, that's moderated from what happened in 2018's 358,000 truck order intake -- or 458,000 truck order intake. So it's -- if you look at it on a pure sequential year-over-year, it's probably down, but it was down from a level that was not sustainable, it's so high. And so compared to normal levels, it's still very high and very strong. 73,000 trucks in the backlog and doing really well.

與正常週期相比，今年的增幅相當大。顯然，這比 2018 年的 358,000 輛卡車訂單量（或 458,000 輛卡車訂單量）有所減少。所以——如果純粹從同比來看，它可能有所下降，但它是從一個不可持續的水平下降的，因為它之前非常高。因此，與正常水平相比，它仍然非常高，非常強。積壓的卡車數量為 73,000 輛，進展非常順利。

I mean look, clearly the industry is down. In data we most all use, it's down about 17% year-over-year. I'm just trying to get a feel, is your backlog down less than the industry?

我的意思是，你看，很明顯這個產業正在走下坡。在我們大多數人使用的數據中，年減了約 17%。我只是想了解一下情況，你們的積壓訂單是否比行業平均少？

Well I think the best way to think about that, David, is to think about that in a percentage of backlog that Harrie talked about earlier, the 36% of the industry backlog, which is, if you call us a 30% market share and 36% of industry backlog, it means we have a very healthy backlog relative to our market share.

大衛，我認為思考這個問題的最好方法是，像哈利之前提到的那樣，用積壓訂單的百分比來考慮，也就是行業積壓訂單的 36%。如果我們把市佔率算作 30%，把產業積壓訂單算作 36%，那就意味著相對於我們的市佔率而言，我們的積壓訂單非常健康。

Yes, I think we're just trying to figure out how much of that goes into 2020, how much is helping the fourth quarter. Is the, if the fourth quarter builds just have a normal seasonal less build days, but the daily rate stays the same, I would argue that's probably a little better than people were thinking. I'm just trying to get a feel. While that helps the fourth quarter, what does it mean about 2020? But you're still speaking pretty constructively about your orders into 2020. So just trying to put the mosaic here together. But, again, your backlog's doing better than the industry given the share gain obviously implied in that backlog versus the industry totals.

是的，我認為我們只是想弄清楚其中有多少因素會影響到 2020 年，又有多少因素會對第四季有所幫助。如果第四季的建設只是正常的季節性減少工期，但每日工期保持不變，我認為這可能比人們想像的要好一些。我只是想感受一下。雖然這有助於第四季度，但對 2020 年意味著什麼？但你對2020年的訂單仍然持相當建設性的態度。所以，我只是想把這些碎片拼湊起來。但是，再次強調，考慮到積壓訂單相對於行業總量的份額明顯增長，你們的積壓訂單表現優於行業平均水平。

Yes. I think you're characterizing it really well, David. I think that's exactly right; there's (inaudible) well to that, and we'll watch what 2020 does as it get closer to us.

是的。我覺得你描述得非常貼切，大衛。我覺得完全正確；這其中確實有（聽不清楚）的道理，我們會拭目以待，看看 2020 年臨近時會發生什麼。

There are no other questions in the queue at this time. Are there any additional remarks from the company?

目前隊列中沒有其他問題。公司還有其他補充說明嗎？

Yes. We'd like to thank everyone for joining the call, and thank you, operator.

是的。感謝各位參與通話，也謝謝接線生。

Thanks, everyone. Have a great day.

謝謝大家。祝你有美好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes PACCAR's earnings call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，PACCAR的財報電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。