帕卡 (PCAR) 2018 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to PACCAR's First Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Today's call is being recorded and if anyone has an objection, they should disconnect at this time.

早上好，歡迎參加 PACCAR 2018 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）今天的通話正在錄音，如有任何異議，請立即掛斷電話。

I would now like to introduce Mr. Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. Mr. Hastings, please go ahead.

現在我謹向大家介紹 PACCAR 的投資者關係總監 Ken Hastings 先生。哈斯廷斯先生，請繼續。

Good morning. We would like to welcome those listening by phone and those on the webcast. My name is Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. And joining me this morning are Ron Armstrong, Chief Executive Officer; Harrie Schippers, President and Chief Financial Officer; and Michael Barkley, Senior Vice President and Controller.

早安.我們歡迎透過電話收聽的聽眾和透過網路直播收聽的聽眾。我是肯‧黑斯廷斯，PACCAR公司的投資人關係總監。今天早上和我一起參加節目的有：執行長 Ron Armstrong；總裁兼財務長 Harrie Schippers；以及高級副總裁兼財務總監 Michael Barkley。

As with prior conference calls, we ask that any members of the media on the line participate in a listen-only mode. Certain information presented today will be forward-looking and involve risks and uncertainties, including general economic and competitive conditions that may affect expected results.

與以往的電話會議一樣，我們要求所有參與電話會議的媒體成員以只聽模式參與。今天公佈的某些資訊屬於前瞻性訊息，涉及風險和不確定性，包括可能影響預期結果的總體經濟和競爭狀況。

I would now like to introduce Ron Armstrong.

現在我來介紹羅恩·阿姆斯特朗。

Good morning. PACCAR reported record revenues and strong operating results for the first quarter of 2018. PACCAR's first quarter sales and Financial Services revenues were $5.65 billion. And first quarter net income was $512 million, a 9.1% after-tax return on revenues. Revenues were 33% higher and net income was 65% higher compared to the first quarter last year. PACCAR Parts achieved record quarterly pretax profits of $192 million.

早安.PACCAR公佈了2018年第一季創紀錄的收入和強勁的經營業績。PACCAR第一季銷售額和金融服務收入為56.5億美元。第一季淨收入為 5.12 億美元，稅後收入回報率為 9.1%。與去年第一季相比，營收成長了 33%，淨利潤成長了 65%。PACCAR Parts 實現了創紀錄的季度稅前利潤 1.92 億美元。

PACCAR achieved excellent Truck, Parts and Other gross margins of 14.8%, helped by strong global truck and aftermarket parts demand. First quarter margins benefited from a favorable customer mix and increased seasonal demand for proprietary parts in the aftermarket.

由於全球卡車及售後市場零件的強勁需求，PACCAR 的卡車、零件及其他業務毛利率達到了 14.8%。第一季利潤率受益於有利的客戶組合以及售後市場對專有零件的季節性需求增加。

I'm very proud of our 26,000 employees who have delivered industry-leading products and services to our customers worldwide. PACCAR delivered a record 44,500 trucks during the first quarter. U.S. and Canada Class 8 industry truck orders averaged 42,000 units per month in the first quarter and have exceeded 30,000 units per month for the last 6 months. DAF above 16-tonne orders increased 41% in the first quarter compared to the same period last year.

我為我們26,000名員工感到非常自豪，他們為全球客戶提供了領先業界的產品和服務。PACCAR在第一季交付了創紀錄的44500輛卡車。美國和加拿大 8 級卡車行業第一季平均每月訂單量為 42,000 輛，過去 6 個月每月訂單量均超過 30,000 輛。今年第一季度，DAF 16噸以上卡車的訂單量比去年同期增加了41%。

Due to the robust orders, we expect to deliver 7% to 9% more trucks in the second quarter this year compared to the first quarter. Second quarter gross margins for trucks will be similar to the first quarter at around 12%. Parts margins will reflect increased sales of TRP and routine maintenance parts. Total Truck, Parts and Other gross margins will again be strong at the mid-14% level.

由於訂單強勁，我們預計今年第二季交付的卡車數量將比第一季增加 7% 至 9%。第二季卡車毛利率將與第一季相近，約 12%。零件利潤率將反映出 TRP 和日常維護零件銷售的成長。卡車、零件及其他業務的總毛利率將再次保持在 14% 左右的強勁水平。

The U.S. economy's growth is driving record freight tonnage. Customers are operating at high utilization levels and are expanding their fleets. We've raised our estimate of U.S. and Canadian Class 8 truck industry retail sales to a range of 265,000 to 285,000 vehicles this year. PACCAR's forecast for the European above 16-tonne market has been increased to a range of 300,000 to 320,000 units, reflecting the strong freight transport activity and truck demand as well as the steady economic outlook. The new DAF CF and XF, which won the International Truck of the Year, are seeing strong demand, achieving a 16.4% share of the European heavy truck market registrations in the first quarter.

美國經濟成長推動貨運噸位創下歷史新高。客戶目前營運利用率很高，並且正在擴大車隊規模。我們已將今年美國和加拿大 8 級卡車行業的零售銷售預期上調至 265,000 至 285,000 輛。PACCAR 將歐洲 16 噸以上卡車市場的預測值上調至 30 萬至 32 萬輛，這反映了強勁的貨運活動和卡車需求，以及穩定的經濟前景。榮獲國際年度卡車大獎的全新 DAF CF 和 XF 卡車需求強勁，在第一季度佔據了歐洲重型卡車市場註冊量 16.4% 的份額。

PACCAR Parts' quarterly pretax income of $192 million was 27% higher than a year ago. Pretax return on revenue was an excellent 20.4%. PACCAR Parts business generated record quarterly revenues of $940 million, 19% higher than in the same quarter of last year. These results were driven by the growing number of PACCAR trucks and engines in operation, PACCAR's investments in distribution centers and the many innovative products and services offered by PACCAR Parts and our dealers. For the year, we expect part sales to increase by 10% to 12%.

PACCAR Parts 的季度稅前收入為 1.92 億美元，比去年同期成長了 27%。稅前收入報酬率高達 20.4%。PACCAR零件業務季度營收創歷史新高，達9.4億美元，比去年同期成長19%。這些成果的取得得益於PACCAR卡車和引擎營運數量的不斷增長、PACCAR對配送中心的投資，以及PACCAR零件和經銷商提供的眾多創新產品和服務。我們預計今年零件銷售額將成長 10% 至 12%。

PACCAR Financial Services' first quarter pretax income was $68 million, 19% higher than first quarter last year. The PACCAR Financial portfolio performed well. Industry demand and pricing for used trucks increased compared to the first quarter last year. PACCAR Financial continued to invest in the remarketing of PACCAR trucks by opening its fourth truck remarketing center near Los Angeles. These truck centers further enhance Kenworth and Peterbilt residual values, which command a 10% to 20% premium over competitors' trucks.

PACCAR金融服務公司第一季稅前收入為6,800萬美元，比去年第一季成長19%。PACCAR Financial 的投資組合表現良好。與去年第一季相比，二手卡車的行業需求和價格均有所增長。PACCAR Financial 繼續投資 PACCAR 卡車的再行銷，在洛杉磯附近開設了第四家卡車再行銷中心。這些卡車中心進一步提升了肯沃斯和彼得比爾特卡車的殘值，其殘值比競爭對手的卡車高出 10% 到 20%。

PACCAR's strong balance sheet and positive cash flow have enabled the company to invest $3 billion in new products and facilities in the last 5 years. This year, capital expenditures of $425 million to $475 million and research and development expenses of $300 million to $320 million are targeted for new truck models, integrated powertrains, including electric hybrid and hydrogen fuel cell technologies, and new product technologies for advanced driver assistance systems and truck connectivity. Additional investments are also being made to expand and enhance manufacturing and parts distribution facilities.

PACCAR 強勁的資產負債表和正現金流使公司在過去 5 年裡能夠投資 30 億美元用於新產品和新設施。今年，該公司計劃投入 4.25 億美元至 4.75 億美元的資本支出和 3 億美元至 3.2 億美元的研發費用，用於開發新型卡車車型、整合式動力系統（包括電動混合動力和氫燃料電池技術）以及用於高級駕駛輔助系統和卡車互聯的新產品技術。公司也正在追加投資，以擴大和提升製造及零件分銷設施。

PACCAR is realizing the benefits of strong market conditions by delivering the highest quality products and services in the industry and investing for future growth.

PACCAR 正在透過提供業界最高品質的產品和服務以及投資未來成長，實現強勁市場環境所帶來的益處。

Thank you. I'd be pleased to answer your questions.

謝謝。我很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Alex Potter with Piper Jaffray.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Piper Jaffray 公司的 Alex Potter。

First, I wanted to ask a question about the revenue growth in parts. You mentioned seasonality there, but also, the propriety parts. I was just wondering if you could give a little bit more clarity on what's driving that very strong year-over-year growth. And also, if you could, I guess, in that context, talk about TRP, the extent to which that's contributing as well.

首先，我想問一下各部分的收入成長。你提到了季節性因素，但也提到了專有部分。我只是想請您更詳細地解釋一下，是什麼因素推動瞭如此強勁的同比增長。另外，如果可以的話，我想在這個背景下，談談 TRP，以及它在多大程度上也產生了影響。

Sure. The growth is really across all the product lines. Obviously, freight activity has a large impact. But our teams, we've expanded our distribution facilities. We've got lots of great programs with engines, with our fleet services, our e-commerce capabilities. So the team has done a great job of really putting together programs that build the loyalty of our customers to PACCAR Parts, because they can provide the parts faster and more efficiently than some of the competition can. So the team's been working on these initiatives for many years and now we're seeing the real fruits of the investments and the efforts the team's put forward. On the TRP side, if you look at same-store sales year-over-year, we're up about 20% on the independent stand-alone TRP scores.

當然。所有產品線都實現了成長。顯然，貨運活動影響巨大。但是我們的團隊已經擴大了配送設施。我們在引擎、車隊服務和電子商務方面有很多很棒的項目。因此，該團隊在製定能夠增強客戶對 PACCAR Parts 忠誠度的計劃方面做得非常出色，因為他們能夠比一些競爭對手更快、更有效率地提供零件。因此，團隊多年來一直在推進這些計劃，現在我們看到了團隊投入和努力的真正成果。從 TRP 指標來看，如果以同店銷售額較去年同期計算，我們的獨立 TRP 分數成長了約 20%。

And what margin impact does that have, to the extent TRP ends up being a bigger or smaller percent of the mix?

如果 TRP 在產品組合中所佔比例增大或減小，會對利潤率產生什麼影響？

It would probably pull the overall average down just a bit because it's typically all makes parts for all brands of vehicles.

這可能會稍微拉低整體平均值，因為它通常生產所有品牌車輛的零件。

Okay. Very good. And then, I guess, one last question on used truck pricing. There's some thought, I suppose, that used truck prices could eventually start trending lower as we get toward the back half of the year. Just wondering if you're starting to see any of that or if you agree with that view.

好的。非常好。最後，我想還有一個關於二手卡車價格的問題。我想，有人認為，隨著下半年的到來，二手卡車的價格最終可能會開始走低。我只是想知道你是否開始注意到這些，或者你是否同意這種觀點。

No, I think -- again, we've seen positive trending in the last 3 to 6 months on used truck pricing. And so we're seeing just the opposite. We're seeing the positive trends.

不，我認為——再說一遍，在過去 3 到 6 個月裡，二手卡車價格呈現積極的上漲趨勢。因此，我們看到的情況恰恰相反。我們看到了正面的趨勢。

Your next question comes from Ann Duignan with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的安·杜伊尼安。

My first question may be around if you could speak to what you're seeing out there by segment. We're seeing Class 8 sleeper orders up about 140%, big cabs up about 112%, and straight trucks up about 43%. And just curious what you guys are seeing out there by mix of application or segment, in terms of your backlog or your orders.

我的第一個問題是，您能否按細分市場談談您目前觀察到的情況。我們看到 8 級臥舖卡車的訂單增加了約 140%，大型駕駛室卡車的訂單增加了約 112%，直卡車的訂單增加了約 43%。我很好奇你們在積壓訂單或訂單方面，按應用程式或細分市場劃分，都看到了哪些情況。

Yes, I think, we're seeing increases in all those segments, sort of across the board. I wouldn't say there's any particular segment that's outperforming the other, probably a little bit higher sleeper mix just because of the demand for on-highway trucks.

是的，我認為，我們看到所有這些領域都在成長，可以說是全面成長。我不會說哪個細分市場表現優於其他市場，可能臥舖車的比例略高一些，因為公路卡車的需求量很大。

Okay. And then, it does look like the sleeper has started to accelerate into the end of last year. Is that the case?

好的。然後，看起來這支沉睡的隊伍在去年底開始加速前進。真是這樣嗎？

Yes, I think more of the on-highway fleets will place their orders in the late fourth quarter, early first part of the year. And so I think we're just seeing the effects of the timing of when they place their orders.

是的，我認為更多的公路運輸車隊會在第四季末或今年年初下訂單。所以我認為我們現在看到的只是他們下單時間的影響。

And given your backlog year-to-date, do you have enough capacity to meet demand for this year? Or do you envision maybe having to push back some of those deliveries into next year? And do you think there is any risk that we see production expand into or extend into 2019, just on the back of capacity constraints?

鑑於您今年的積壓訂單狀況，您是否有足夠的產能來滿足今年的需求？或者您預計需要將其中一些交付推遲到明年？您認為是否有產能受限，導致生產擴張或延長至 2019 年的風險？

Well, demand is good and we see no indications that demand is lessening. And so we're going to build the trucks that we can build and we have the capacity to be able to support our customers' needs.

目前市場需求良好，沒有跡象顯示需求正在減弱。因此，我們將生產我們能夠生產並且有能力滿足客戶需求的卡車。

Okay. And then, just quickly, as a final follow-up, could you just discuss input cost versus pricing power? And what's the pricing environment like out there, given the strength in orders and demand?

好的。最後，能否快速補充一個問題，談談投入成本與定價能力之間的關係？鑑於訂單和需求的強勁勢頭，目前的定價環境如何？

Yes, we have -- we've seen some moderate ability to increase prices, particularly on smaller truck orders. But we're also seeing some moderate increases in the input costs. I mean we continue to see commodity costs trend upward. But again, our long-term agreements facilitate that being smoothed in over time, and we're able to realize that in the marketplace for the most part.

是的，我們已經看到了一定的提價能力，尤其是在小型卡車訂單方面。但我們也看到投入成本出現了一些小漲。我的意思是，我們看到大宗商品成本持續上漲。但再一次，我們的長期協議有助於隨著時間的推移緩解這種情況，而且我們基本上能夠在市場上實現這一點。

So you wouldn't expect the net to be a negative this year? Is that -- am I reading too much into it, or...

所以你預計今年的淨利不會是負數嗎？是不是──我是不是想太多了，還是…

No, I don't -- at this point, we don't see that.

不，我不這麼認為——目前來看，我們還沒有看到這種情況。

Your next question comes from Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的傑瑞·雷維奇。

I'm wondering if you could talk about your expectations of vehicle mix in the second quarter. In the first quarter, you spoke about getting a tailwind from a mix of business. So I'm wondering how do you expect that to evolve into 2Q. And you had spoken about gross margin expectations for the year. I'm wondering if you could touch on the second quarter, specifically.

我想請您談談對第二季度車輛組合的預期。第一季度，您曾談到從多種業務組合中獲得順風。所以我想知道你預計第二季會如何發展。您之前也談到了今年的毛利率預期。我想請您具體談談第二季的情況。

Yes. So we talked about our second quarter overall gross margins being in the mid-14% levels. And we will see an increased mix of deliveries to fleet customers in the second quarter, but that's all very normal. And so we expect another strong margin quarter, as we mentioned.

是的。所以我們討論了第二季整體毛利率在 14% 左右的水平。第二季度，我們將看到交付給車隊客戶的貨物比例增加，但這都是非常正常的現象。正如我們之前提到的，我們預計本季利潤率將保持強勁成長。

And in terms of factory overhead costs, those -- it took a leg higher to support the higher production levels in the fourth quarter. Can you just talk about how that trended into the first quarter, and what the expectations are over the balance of the year?

就工廠營運成本而言，為了支撐第四季度更高的生產水平，這些成本需要進一步提高。您能否談談第一季的發展趨勢，以及今年剩餘時間的預期？

Yes, the factory overhead and all of our other costs trended exactly as we would expect with higher volume, and we're seeing the benefits of the operating leverage and you see that in the 14.8% margin for the quarter.

是的，工廠管理費用和所有其他成本都按照我們預期的銷售成長趨勢發展，我們看到了營運槓桿的好處，這一點從本季 14.8% 的利潤率中就能看出。

Okay. And last year, because your dealers hit their threshold for part sales, we saw I think in the third quarter, weaker pricing than we would otherwise expect. Anything that we need to keep in mind in terms of rebates, as we think about this year compared to the way last year played out?

好的。去年，由於經銷商的零件銷售額達到了閾值，我們在第三季度看到了比預期更疲軟的價格。在考慮今年的退稅情況與去年相比時，有哪些需要注意的地方？

Well, you saw that -- the great results that we had in the first quarter with the 19% increase. So we're expecting our dealers, and our dealers are doing very well. And so we're providing the support for those incentives as we go.

你們也看到了——我們第一季取得了非常好的成績，成長了 19%。所以我們對經銷商抱持期待，而我們的經銷商表現也非常好。因此，我們將逐步為這些激勵措施提供支援。

Okay. So it won't be as lumpy as we saw last year?

好的。所以今年的路面不會像去年那樣坑洞不平？

No.

不。

Your next question comes from Joel Tiss with BMO.

下一個問題來自BMO的Joel Tiss。

So I wonder if you could just talk a little bit about any supplier constraints, and kind of just what's happening along the chain on the way to your factories for the different parts.

所以我想知道您能否談談供應商方面的限制，以及各個零件在運送到您工廠的整個供應鏈中都發生了什麼。

Yes. Our truck divisions, the materials teams, the purchasing groups have done a great job of really coordinating well with our suppliers on our build plans. As we mentioned, we're planning to increase our build rates in the second quarter. And so it's a very coordinated approach with our supply base to make sure that we can execute that. We don't take the build rates up unless we feel confident in their ability to deliver. And so we're working very closely with them, as we always do, but so far, it's been excellent in terms of the support they've provided.

是的。我們的卡車部門、材料團隊和採購團隊在與供應商的協調方面做得非常出色，確保了我們的生產計劃順利進行。正如我們之前提到的，我們計劃在第二季提高生產速度。因此，我們需要與供應商密切協調，以確保能夠執行該計劃。除非我們對他們的交付能力有信心，否則我們不會提高生產速度。因此，我們像往常一樣與他們密切合作，但到目前為止，他們提供的支援非常出色。

And then, is there any commentary or any color you can give us around cancellation rates, maybe even just fuzz it up for the whole industry, and the ability for -- or the -- whatever, the -- you’re feeling about keeping production strong through 2019? Just kind of the way the market feels to you. I'm not asking for a forecast.

那麼，您能否就取消率發表一些評論或看法，哪怕只是泛泛而談一下整個行業的情況，以及您對 2019 年保持強勁的製作能力有何感想？就是你對市場的感覺。我不是問天氣預報。

Sure. Cancellation rates are very low, Joel. I just have the occasional cancellation and a reorder, but that's pretty uncommon at this point. And so in terms of the customer demands in Europe and in North America, it's really strong. The economies are all trending positively. So I don't see a reason why the demand could -- can't be good for the foreseeable future.

當然。喬爾，取消率非常低。我偶爾會遇到取消訂單和重新下單的情況，但這種情況目前非常少見。因此，就歐洲和北美的客戶需求而言，這種需求非常強勁。所有經濟體都呈現正向發展趨勢。因此，我看不出在可預見的未來，需求有什麼理由不會是好事。

Your next question comes from Seth Weber with RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的塞思‧韋伯。

I just wanted to go back to the gross margin point for a second. And correct me if I'm wrong, but I think you said mid-14% for the second quarter this year. And you guys did about the same last year on much lower revenue. So I'm just trying to -- am I -- I'm just trying to understand why the margin isn't increasing year-over-year with a higher revenue.

我只是想再回到毛利率這一點上來談談。如果我沒記錯的話，你之前說過今年第二季的成長率為 14% 左右。而你們去年在收入遠低於現在的情況下，也做到了差不多同樣的業績。所以，我只是想弄清楚──我──我只是想弄清楚，為什麼收入增加的同時，利潤率卻沒有逐年成長。

Well, that's -- we're -- we got a lot -- like I said, a higher mix of fleet deliveries in the second quarter, and that's...

嗯，那是——我們——我們有很多——就像我說的，第二季度車隊交付的比例更高，而且…

Trucks go out faster than parts.

卡車的損耗速度比零件的損耗速度快。

Yes. That's a good point. If you look at the mix of trucks, we're going to be up -- we're up 30-plus percent on trucks in the first quarter, and the same will be true in the second quarter. And the incremental margins on trucks just isn't as great as it is on parts. So that proportion has a dampening effect on the overall margin.

是的。說得有道理。從卡車的​​組成來看，我們的卡車數量將會成長——第一季卡車數量增加了 30% 以上，第二季也會如此。而且卡車的增量利潤遠不如零件那麼高。因此，該比例會對整體利潤率產生抑製作用。

That's -- I'm sorry, you're talking year-over-year? Or the first quarter?

那是——不好意思，您說的是同比數據嗎？或者第一季？

Yes. Year-over-year. Year-over-year. Yes.

是的。與上年同期相比。與上年同期相比。是的。

Right. Okay. So it's a mix issue. Even though the parts business is growing quickly, the trucks are growing more rapidly?

正確的。好的。所以這是一個混合問題。儘管零件業務成長迅速，但卡車業務的成長速度更快？

Are going a lot faster.

速度快了很多。

Right. Okay. That's helpful. And then, just on the Brazil investment that you called out in the press release, is there any color around that? And I guess, can you talk about what you're doing with that investment and kind of how you feel like your distribution is set up in that market at this point?

正確的。好的。那很有幫助。還有，關於您在新聞稿中提到的巴西投資，有什麼細節可以透露嗎？那麼，您能否談談您如何運用這筆投資，以及您目前在這個市場上的分銷管道是如何設定的？

Yes. So our distribution, we've had presence in the Andean region of South America for decades. And we introduced the DAF truck models into that region about 5 years ago and continue to see the DAF models increase their penetration in the Andean region of South America. And we continue to invest in products for that part of the business. And of course, Brazil, we introduced a heavy application, off-highway application late last year at the Fenatran truck show. And that truck is now entering production and should help support our dealers and our customers with an additional expanded product line in Brazil. The team there is doing a great job. The product is very well received. And our distribution network continues to expand as we progress and build out our truck line as well as our distribution capabilities for the country.

是的。所以，我們的分銷網絡已經遍佈南美洲安第斯山脈地區數十年了。大約 5 年前，我們將 DAF 卡車車型引入了該地區，並且不斷看到 DAF 車型在南美洲安第斯地區的滲透率不斷提高。我們將繼續投資於該業務領域的產品。當然，巴西方面，我們去年底在 Fenatran 卡車展上推出了一款重型應用、非公路應用。這款卡車現在已投入生產，將透過擴大產品線，幫助我們在巴西的經銷商和客戶提供更多支援。那裡的團隊做得非常出色。該產品廣受好評。隨著我們不斷發展壯大，我們的卡車運輸線和全國配送能力也不斷提升，我們的配送網路也持續擴張。

Your next question comes from David Leiker with Baird.

下一個問題來自 Baird 公司的 David Leiker。

This is Joe Vruwink for David. I might have missed this, so I apologize. But I think gross margins in Q1 finished above the guide you provided a quarter ago. What exactly drove the upside in profitability?

這是喬·弗魯溫克為大衛報的名。我可能錯過了這則訊息，對此我深表歉意。但我認為第一季的毛利率高於您上個季度給出的預期。究竟是什麼因素推動了獲利能力的成長？

Yes. I think, as again, the first quarter, we had a favorable customer mix in terms of deliveries to dealers for stocking purposes as well as smaller fleets, and we'll see more larger fleets in the second quarter. And the parts business, great activity with respect to propriety parts in the first quarter.

是的。我認為，和第一季一樣，我們的客戶組合比較有利，既有向經銷商供貨用於庫存的車輛，也有小型車隊的車輛，第二季我們將看到更多大型車隊的車輛。零件業務方面，第一季專有零件的銷售活動十分活躍。

Okay. That makes sense. If I can shift gears, the 40% increase in orders for DAF, that's a pretty big gain. Particularly it seems like some of your competitors in Europe are seeing decelerating order activity. Any more color on why DAF would be performing at such a wide variance to what maybe some of the other OEMs are seeing?

好的。這很有道理。如果我換個角度來說，DAF 的訂單成長了 40%，這是一個相當大的成長。尤其是一些歐洲競爭對手似乎出現了訂單活動放緩的情況。能否進一步解釋為什麼 DAF 的性能與其他一些 OEM 廠商的性能有如此大的差異？

Well, I've got a few thoughts. I'm sure Harrie will have a few. But the key thing is the great products. I mean, the CF XF was named International Truck of the Year. It provides a 7% better fuel efficiency. And so I think the customers appreciate that, and they're seeking to take advantage of the great products that DAF is offering. Harrie, you have any...

我有一些想法。我相信哈里肯定會有幾個。但關鍵在於優秀的產品。我的意思是，CF XF 被評為國際年度卡車。它的燃油效率提高了7%。所以我認為顧客們很欣賞這一點，他們也希望能夠充分利用 DAF 提供的優質產品。哈里，你有什麼…

I can only echo that, Ron. And I think the end result is that we've nicely grown market share in the first quarter, and it's not only in registrations and share, we see that back in our order intake too, that more customers, more fleets are choosing for the DAF International Truck of the Year.

我完全同意你的看法，羅恩。我認為最終結果是，我們在第一季獲得了不錯的市場份額增長，這不僅體現在註冊量和份額上，我們也從訂單量中看到了這一點，越來越多的客戶、越來越多的車隊選擇了 DAF 國際年度卡車。

And then, I know what I'm about to ask is a bit of a convoluted calculation. But if I think about your presence in Europe, obviously, great positioning, and the U.K. market has started to soften. So to do this type of market share in Europe, I have to imagine that you're reaching new all-time record levels of share in a lot of individual countries. Is that a fair characterization?

我知道我接下來要問的問題可能有點複雜。但就你們在歐洲的業務而言，顯然，你們的市場定位非常出色，而英國市場已經開始疲軟。因此，要在歐洲取得這樣的市場份額，我認為你們在許多國家都達到了歷史新高的市場份額。這種描述是否恰當？

Yes. At or near record-high levels in a lot of markets. So yes, the trucks are performing well and it's well-recognized across Europe.

是的。許多市場達到或接近歷史最高水準。是的，這些卡車的性能很好，這一點在歐洲廣為人知。

Your next question comes from Steve Volkmann with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自傑富瑞集團的史蒂夫沃克曼。

I'm wondering, around as we sort of stretch out the backlog here, what you're seeing in terms of new truck pricing. Is there an opportunity to get a little bit more as the backlog stretches out?

我想知道，在我們逐漸解決積壓訂單的同時，您目前看到的新卡車價格如何。隨著積壓的工作越來越多，是否有機會獲得更多利益？

Yes. I mean, that's typical. It's a supply and demand business. And yes, there is definitely an opportunity, and we had saw some moderate pricing gains in the first quarter.

是的。我的意思是，這很常見。這是一個供需關係決定的行業。是的，這絕對是一個機會，我們在第一季也看到了一些適度的價格上漲。

But again, given the sort of the length of the backlog, I'm supposing that probably wouldn't really show up until the second half of the year, in terms of maybe seeing it in your numbers? Or maybe the margin's slightly better? Or just how would we think of that timing?

但是，考慮到積壓案件的數量，我估計這種情況可能要到下半年才會真正顯現出來，或許才能在你們的資料中看到？或許利潤率略高一些？或者，我們該如何看待這個時機呢？

Yes. I think you'll see it gradually progress as we progress through the year.

是的。我認為隨著時間的推移，你會看到它逐漸發展。

Okay. And then, I'm curious if you have any kind of initial just big picture thoughts on the cycle relative to what 2019 might look like. And we've obviously had lots of cycles that have been heavily impacted by emission changes. We don't really have that this time. What's your view? Is '19 reasonably assumed to be sort of flattish? Or does it need to be down, just because we're having a good year this year? What -- how do you just look at the longer term?

好的。然後，我很好奇你對 2019 年的週期有什麼初步的、宏觀的看法嗎？顯然，我們已經經歷了許多受到排放變化嚴重影響的週期。這次我們確實沒有那個條件。你的看法是什麼？2019 年的經濟狀況是否可以合理地被認為比較平坦？難道僅僅因為今年業績不錯，就一定要降低標準嗎？什麼——你怎麼能只從長遠角度來看待這個問題呢？

We're going to continue to build trucks for our customers and we see no signs of lessening in demand. So as the year progresses, we'll get a better feel for 2019. But our assessment is that as long as the economy is good, the truck markets will be good.

我們將繼續為客戶生產卡車，而且我們看不到任何需求減少的跡象。隨著時間推移，我們對 2019 年會有更清晰的認識。但我們認為，只要經濟狀況良好，卡車市場就會很好。

And do you have already some of your build slots in '19 spoken for?

你的 2019 年賽季建造槽位已經預定了嗎？

Oh yes, for sure. Your customers, there's larger fleet customers oftentimes will place orders for multiyear. So yes, there's a nice baseline, if you will, of business that's being booked for 2019.

哦，當然。您的客戶，尤其是大型車隊客戶，通常會下達多年訂單。所以，是的，如果你願意的話，2019 年的業務預訂情況有了一個不錯的基準線。

Your next question comes from Andy Casey with Wells Fargo Securities.

下一個問題來自富國證券的安迪凱西。

I'm just wondering, I don't think you addressed this, but could you help us understand the currency impact on revenue and EBIT margin? I'm just wondering what that -- how that may have impacted the overall incremental margin performance.

我只是想問一下，雖然我覺得您沒有提到這一點，但您能否幫我們了解匯率對收​​入和息稅前利潤率的影響？我只是想知道這會對整體增量利潤表現產生怎樣的影響。

Yes. I'll let Michael address that.

是的。這個問題就讓麥可來回答吧。

Yes. The impact on currency compared to prior year on revenues is about $240 million of increase. And that's mostly due to the euro appreciated against the dollar. And the impact on pretax income was about $19 million, positive.

是的。與前一年相比，匯率波動對營收的影響約為增加 2.4 億美元。這主要是由於歐元對美元升值所致。對稅前收入的影響約為 1,900 萬美元，為正值。

Okay. That explains some of it. And then, kind of going back to the pricing question that Steve asked just a bit ago. Can you discuss how you approach balancing price-up versus market share, specifically in the U.S. and Canadian market? Your European orders are quite strong, obviously.

好的。這就解釋了一部分原因。然後，我們再回到史蒂夫剛才提出的定價問題。您能否談談您是如何平衡價格上漲與市場份額的，尤其是在美國和加拿大市場？顯然，你們在歐洲的訂單非常強勁。

Well, it's the same every day. I mean it's a competitive marketplace. And everybody is courting customers and so you have multiple people vying for business. And we obviously continue to earn a premium on our products relative to the competition. But customers are willing to pay extra for the lower total operating costs, the higher residual values, but that's -- there's a limit to that. And so we focus on the value of our products, and we don't compete on price necessarily. So...

每天都一樣。我的意思是，這是一個競爭激烈的市場。每個人都在爭取客戶，所以有很多人都在爭取生意。顯然，相對於競爭對手，我們的產品仍然能夠獲得溢價。但客戶願意為更低的總營運成本和更高的殘值支付額外的費用，但這——也是有限制的。因此，我們專注於產品的價值，而不一定要在價格上競爭。所以...

Sure. Just the reason for the question, Ron, is it just seems like some of your competitors appear to have constraints that are limiting their ability to satisfy additional orders in 2018, a couple of them to be specific. But I'm just wondering, since you have incremental capacity that you could service orders that may have some more immediacy than waiting until, let's say, the first part of next year for delivery. Does that offer a pricing opportunity? Or is it -- is it...

當然。羅恩，我問這個問題的原因是，你的一些競爭對手似乎存在一些限制，導致他們在 2018 年無法滿足額外的訂單，具體來說，是幾個競爭對手。但我只是在想，既然你們有額外的產能，你們是否可以處理一些比等到明年年初才能交付更緊急的訂單。這是否提供了一個定價機會？或者，真的是這樣嗎？ ……

Yes. I mean, I guess -- it's going to be moderate, Andy, I think, in terms of the overall effect on margins.

是的。我的意思是，我想——安迪，我認為，就對利潤率的整體影響而言，影響應該是中等的。

Your next question comes from Steven Fisher with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的史蒂文費雪。

Just wanted to ask you about your warranty experience. I think you've been running better than some accrual rates on certain products. I'm not sure if that was the MX-11. Just wondering if that's continued. And if so, is there a certain point in which you reassess that accrual rate that could come in and support margins?

我只是想問您的保固體驗如何。我認為你在某些產品的應計率方面做得比一些同類產品要好。我不確定那是不是MX-11。想知道這種情況是否還在繼續。如果是這樣，是否存在一個特定的時間點，你會重新評估該應計率，以期獲得利潤率支持？

Yes, we reassess accrual rates every quarter. And so it's closely watched by Michael and his team and the operating folks. And so our warranty expense really reflects our best assessment of what's going on in the field at any point in time. As you transition to new models, you'll provide a little bit of extra warranty in the early days. But our experience is that, that will rapidly come down because the products are better. And so we see the ebbs and flows of new models and then maturity of new models, et cetera, over time.

是的，我們每季都會重新評估應計率。因此，邁克爾和他的團隊以及營運人員都在密切關注著它。因此，我們的保固費用真正反映了我們對任何時間點現場情況的最佳評估。當您過渡到新型號時，在初期階段您需要提供一些額外的保固服務。但根據我們的經驗，這種情況會迅速下降，因為產品品質提高了。因此，我們看到新模型的興起和發展，以及新模型的成熟等等，隨著時間的推移。

So is that something that could be a second-half tailwind for this year?

那麼，這會成為今年下半年的有利因素嗎？

We'll evaluate it every quarter. So again, we're reflecting our best estimates every quarter along the way.

我們將每季進行評估。所以，我們每季都會根據實際情況做出最佳預測。

Okay. And you mentioned that there's some modest pricing available with smaller orders. When do you think production might be tight enough in the industry to see that higher pricing more broadly? I'm not sure if there's a certain level of industry production or retail sales that you're thinking about that might be more supportive of a broad-based pricing improvement. But I guess I'll ask it in those terms.

好的。您提到小額訂單可以享受一些優惠價格。你認為產業內何時才能出現產能緊張到足以導致價格普遍上漲的局面？我不確定您指的是行業生產或零售額達到某個特定水平，這更有利於全面改善價格。但我還是會這樣問。

Yes, I think we're -- again, it's a competitive environment. And so you always balance the pricing opportunity with your ability to earn the share that you think you should earn. So it's an ongoing balancing of those 2 factors.

是的，我認為我們——再說一遍，這是一個競爭激烈的環境。因此，你總是必須在定價機會和你賺取你認為應該賺取的市場份額的能力之間取得平衡。所以，這是這兩個因素之間持續平衡的過程。

So when do you think you might get an indication of pricing initially for 2019? Typically, it would be in your fourth quarter. Others have said perhaps it could happen earlier than that this year. Is that the way you're thinking about it?

那麼，您認為什麼時候才能初步了解 2019 年的價格呢？通常情況下，這會在你的第四季發生。也有人說，或許今年稍早就會發生。你是這麼想的嗎？

Again, pricing is sort of an ongoing daily assessment of how the market's trending. And so we'll see. We'll just make those calls as we progress throughout this year.

再次強調，定價某種程度上是對市場趨勢的持續日常評估。我們拭目以待。我們會在今年稍後根據實際情況做出這些決定。

Your next question comes from Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的傑米庫克。

I guess, just 2 quick follow-ups. In case I missed it, did you talk about what your gross margin assumption was for the year? I know you gave it, sort of, for the second quarter. And then, last, you raised your R&D again. It's just -- is this the new run rate in terms of how we should think about R&D, given just required investment in EV and alternative technologies?

我想，還有兩個簡短的後續問題。如果我錯過了，您有沒有提到您今年的毛利率預期是多少？我知道你在第二季算是有貢獻。最後，你們再次提升了研發投入。問題是——考慮到對電動車和替代技術所需的投資，這是否就是我們應該如何看待研發的新運行速度？

Yes. So for margins, I think that mid-14% level for the year is probably a pretty good proxy for what we think the average for the year will end up being. And in terms of R&D, yes, I think the run rate of the first quarter is a good proxy, the first quarter. And did see -- we saw about a $5 million to $6 million increase in R&D as a result of currency movements. But the rest of it is focused on new truck models, new engines, including, as you mentioned, electric, hydrogen fuel cell and hybrid vehicles. So we're making investments on a lot of fronts, including the advanced driver-assisted systems, autonomy, and truck [connect].

是的。所以就利潤率而言，我認為全年 14% 左右的水平可能是一個相當不錯的參考值，可以代表我們認為全年平均利潤率最終會達到的水平。至於研發方面，是的，我認為第一季的運作率是一個很好的參考指標，就是第一季的運作率。我們確實看到——由於匯率波動，研發投入增加了約 500 萬至 600 萬美元。但其餘部分則專注於新型卡車車型、新型發動機，包括您提到的電動車、氫燃料電池汽車和混合動力汽車。因此，我們在許多方面都進行了投資，包括先進的駕駛輔助系統、自動駕駛和卡車互聯。

And sorry, that comment was -- my question was more towards beyond 2018. So that's for beyond '18 as well, right? Just longer term?

抱歉，我剛才的評論有點離題了——我的問題更多的是關於2018年以後的事情。所以這也適用於 2018 年以後，對吧？只是長期來看嗎？

Yes. I think that's a good indicator for the run rate. Yes.

是的。我認為這是衡量運行率的一個良好指標。是的。

Your next question comes from Courtney Yakavonis with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Courtney Yakavonis。

Just curious if you can give us an update on the penetration for your MX engines, and if you've updated your long-term goals for that? And then, also if there's any difference to what you guys are currently seeing in the quarter versus what's in your backlog. And then, secondly, just any impact that, that might be having on the aftermarket sales that we're seeing from you guys, especially since we're starting to be about 5 to 6 years out from when those first engines came onboard.

想請教一下，您能否介紹一下MX引擎的市場滲透率情況，以及您是否更新了相關的長期目標？另外，你們目前在本季看到的情況與你們積壓的工作量之間是否有任何差異。其次，也要考慮這可能會對你們的售後市場銷售產生什麼影響，特別是考慮到距離第一批引擎投入使用已經過去了大約 5 到 6 年。

Sure. So yes, we continue to be in the 40% to 45% range and we would love to see that develop over the coming years. And we think it will as more and more customers realize the benefits of the engine and as we get into greenhouse gas regulations in 2021 and the subsequent years. I think the demand for our engines will continue to increase. And yes, we are definitely seeing the benefits of that in the part sales. And we're now into the seventh year of -- since we started production of the engine here in North America, and the population continues to grow. I think we're approaching close to 200,000 MX engines in North America. And of course, DAF has the PACCAR engine in all of its trucks. And so we definitely are seeing the benefit on the aftermarket parts side, as a result of the engine introduction and the continuing growing population.

當然。是的，我們目前仍維持在 40% 到 45% 的範圍內，我們希望在未來幾年看到這一比例繼續增長。我們認為，隨著越來越多的客戶意識到該引擎的優勢，以及2021年及以後幾年溫室氣體排放法規的實施，這種情況將會改變。我認為對我們引擎的需求將會持續成長。是的，我們已經在零件銷售中看到了這帶來的好處。現在已經是我們在北美開始生產這種引擎的第七年了，而人口仍在持續成長。我認為北美地區的 MX 引擎銷量即將接近 20 萬台。當然，DAF 的所有卡車都配備了 PACCAR 引擎。因此，由於引擎的推出和人口的持續增長，我們確實在售後市場零件方面看到了好處。

Is there any way to quantify that?

有什麼方法可以量化這一點嗎？

Yes. I would say that -- I don't know the exact numbers. But the MX engine growth is definitely -- probably above the overall average for year-on-year.

是的。我只能說——我不知道確切的數字。但MX引擎的成長肯定——可能高於同比的整體平均水平。

Your next question comes from David Raso with Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Raso。

I'm not sure if it's one, given your history, you're going to answer but if you could add a little context to the mix issue. I know you're not going to state blatantly your difference in margin between an owner-operator sale on a fleet. But I think we're all trying to, a, understand where we are on the cycle. But even on the margins themselves, if you pull out the currency for the quarter, it's still, say, a 16% operating incremental margin. I mean, it's still not great. And we're just trying to think through, if '19, the cycle is longer than people thought, and the mix leaned back the other way a bit, what kind of impact is that really having on the margins? Because it wasn't like last year's incrementals were that fantastic either with a different mix, or at least not as negative a mix. So can you at least frame it a little bit for us, what the mix implications are on the profitability?

我不確定這是否算一個問題，鑑於你的過往經歷，你肯定會回答，但如果你能為這個問題補充一些背景信息就好了。我知道你不會直接說出車隊自營商和經營者之間的利潤差異。但我認為我們都在努力了解目前所處的周期階段。但即使從利潤率本身來看，如果剔除季度匯率的影響，營業增量利潤率仍高達 16%。我的意思是，情況仍然不太好。我們只是想弄清楚，如果 2019 年的周期比人們想像的要長，並且組合稍微向另一個方向傾斜，那麼這會對邊緣群體產生什麼樣的影響？因為去年的增量收益也並非十分理想，只是成分不同，或至少負面成分沒有那麼多。那麼，您能否至少為我們簡要說明一下，這種組合會對獲利能力產生哪些影響？

I -- David, I just have to disagree with you a little bit. I think the margins are excellent in terms of looking at what we're providing to our shareholders. And so as we think about the mix, the mix goes up and down quarter to quarter, depending on whether you're selling a large mix of fleet customers at a point in time. And that sort of ebbs and flows from quarter to quarter, year to year. And so we're -- we feel good about the operating results. We have the best margins -- best operating margins in the industry. So I think we feel good about where we're at.

大衛，我得稍微跟你提點不同意見。我認為，從我們為股東提供的服務來看，利潤率非常出色。因此，當我們考慮產品組合時，產品組合會隨著季度而上下波動，這取決於你在某個時期是否向大量的車隊客戶銷售產品。這種現象每季、每年都會有起伏波動。所以，我們對經營業績感到滿意。我們擁有業界最佳的利潤率—最高的營業利潤率。所以我覺得我們對目前的狀況感到滿意。

Okay. I mean, just so we level set people's expectations, I mean, are these gross margins at these truck volumes something that you're comfortable with? I mean, should we not expect margins to be viewed internally as we needed to move these higher materially? Or as someone said earlier, higher revenues, higher unit deliveries, we're not seeing a lot of gross margin improvement. Just so we understand. I mean, maybe it's the proper investments for future growth, technology, pushing in other geographies to smooth the cycles out. But I think people keep going back to the well hoping there's a quarter or 2 where the margins can really pop. And maybe it's just our fault on the Street expecting that to occur.

好的。我的意思是，為了避免大家期望過高，我想問的是，在這樣的卡車運輸量下，這樣的毛利率您是否能夠接受？我的意思是，既然我們需要大幅提高利潤率，難道我們不應該期待公司內部對利潤率進行評估嗎？或者正如之前有人所說，雖然收入更高，銷量也更高，但我們並沒有看到毛利率有太大改善。只是為了讓我們明白。我的意思是，也許這是對未來成長、技術以及拓展其他地區以平抑週期的合理投資。但我認為人們會不斷回到這個領域，希望有一兩個季度利潤率能夠真正飆升。或許這只是我們華爾街的錯，我們預料到了這種情況的發生。

Well, I think yes, as we talked about earlier, the growth in revenue is particularly strong on the truck side relative to the parts side. And so at 12% on trucks and 27% on parts, as the trucks are accelerating faster, that sort of dampens the incremental. And you can look, we've delivered 15% to 20% incrementals over time, and that's what we'd expect.

嗯，我認為是的，正如我們之前討論過的，相對於零件業務而言，卡車業務的收入成長尤其強勁。因此，卡車佔 12%，零件佔 27%，隨著卡車加速行駛，這在一定程度上抑制了增量增長。你可以看到，隨著時間的推移，我們實現了 15% 到 20% 的增量，這正是我們所期望的。

Your next question comes from Mike Shlisky with Seaport Global.

下一個問題來自 Seaport Global 的 Mike Shlisky。

So your share in medium division has been pretty strong this year so far in North America. Are there any success stories here that kind of caused that? Any kind of model to end market? And can you give us, maybe, your more broader view on the (inaudible) market for the year?

所以，今年到目前為止，你們在北美的中型車市佔率相當強勁。這裡有哪些成功案例促成了這種情況？有沒有面向終端市場的模型？您能否為我們提供您對今年（聽不清楚）市場的更廣泛看法？

Well, on the medium-duty side, we think the market will actually be a little bit stronger this year than last year. And of course, last year was a record year for PACCAR for medium-duty truck deliveries, over 29,000 trucks. And so -- hence, based on the strong share, and the good market conditions, we have an opportunity to have an excellent year on the medium-duty side. We've had some growth in expanding our customer base, some significant orders that have come in. And so we're excited about the prospects for that vehicle, and we continue to invest in enhancing that vehicle over time.

就中型卡車市場而言，我們認為今年的市場實際上會比去年略微強勁一些。當然，去年 PACCAR 的中型卡車交付量創下歷史新高，超過 29,000 輛卡車。因此，基於強勁的市場份額和良好的市場狀況，我們有機會在中型卡車領域迎來輝煌的一年。我們的客戶群有所成長，也接到了一些大訂單。因此，我們對這款車的未來前景感到興奮，並將繼續投資，隨著時間的推移不斷改進這款車。

Okay. Great. I also wanted to ask, secondly, about SG&A. I want to follow up on what Jamie asked about R&D. It got -- it went a little bit higher this year, up 20%-plus from the previous year. Is that because of the top line increases? Or is there any higher structural costs we should be aware of for the rest of the year?

好的。偉大的。其次，我也想問銷售、一般及行政費用（SG&A）的情況。我想就傑米提出的研發問題做個後續說明。今年漲幅略高，比前一年上漲了 20% 以上。是因為營收成長嗎？或者，在今年剩餘時間裡，我們是否還應該注意其他更高的結構性成本？

So about $7 million of that increase on SG&A was currency-driven, slightly higher professional fees. The first quarter typically has a little bit higher cost related to long-term incentive grants that doesn't recur through the rest of the year. So those are sort of the key reasons for the increase.

因此，銷售、一般及行政費用增加的約 700 萬美元是由於匯率波動和略微上漲的專業服務費造成的。第一季通常成本會略高一些，這與長期激勵撥款有關，而這些撥款在一年中的其他時間不會再次出現。所以，這些就是成長的主要原因。

So perhaps maybe up slightly year-over-year when you [stencil] those things out, but it shouldn't be a huge increase for the rest of the year compared to (inaudible)...

所以，如果把這些因素剔除掉，或許會比上年略有成長，但與（聽不清楚）相比，今年剩餘時間的成長幅度應該不會很大…

Yes. As we look forward to the next few quarters, I would say it would probably be slightly lower, maybe, than first quarter levels.

是的。展望未來幾個季度，我認為可能會比第一季的水平略低一些。

Your next question comes from Rob Wertheimer with Melius Research.

下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Rob Wertheimer。

I had a quick one on the current orders, and then, a bigger picture one to some electrifications. So on current orders, I mean, the strong ones we've seen in the recent months this year, do you have a sense -- do customers want to take delivery of truck right now, and OEMs want to push them out a little bit? Or are they really seeing a longer duration of the cycle and happy to have it 2, or 3, or 4 quarters from now? I'm just curious about the urgency of those orders.

我先簡要介紹了當前的訂單情況，然後從更宏觀的角度探討了一些電氣化問題。所以就目前的訂單而言，我的意思是，今年最近幾個月我們看到的強勁訂單，您覺得——客戶是否想現在就提車，而原始設備製造商是否想把交貨時間推遲一些？或者他們真的認為週期會更長，並且樂於接受 2、3 或 4 個季度後的周期？我只是好奇這些訂單的緊迫性。

No, I think it's -- I think the urgency is strong. I think the customers want their trucks as -- they've put in orders for this year or orders for, maybe, that extend into 2019. But they've thought about what they -- when they want their deliveries. And so it's -- they're definitely, definitely looking to get the trucks. The fuel economy of our current vehicles is excellent. And so they get an operating advantage by buying that new truck as well. So no, definitely, I think there's -- they're definitely wanting to get the trucks delivered.

不，我認為——我認為情況非常緊迫。我認為客戶想要他們的卡車——他們已經下了今年的訂單，或者可能下了延續到 2019 年的訂單。但他們已經考慮過他們想要何時收到貨物。所以，他們肯定、肯定想要得到這些卡車。我們目前車輛的燃油經濟性非常出色。因此，他們透過購買這輛新卡車也獲得了營運優勢。所以，不，我絕對認為——他們肯定希望盡快把卡車運過來。

Okay. Makes sense. The second question, just, if you could give an update on electrification. We've seen some product announcements in recent days, and obviously, you guys have what you're working on. I mean, how do you think about the next 5 years? Is it where you're trialing solutions and experimenting with different suppliers, different platforms, different ideas in the markets 5 and 10 years out? Or do you think you actually have to be making some real decisions on platforms that will continue and endure? I'm just really curious about how you approach investing in that, and what level of decision you think you have to make? And how fast?

好的。有道理。第二個問題，能否介紹一下電氣化的最新進展？最近幾天我們看到了一些產品發表會，顯然，你們也在努力研發產品。我的意思是，你如何看待未來五年？是在試驗各種解決方案，並嘗試與不同的供應商、不同的平台、不同的理念來預測未來 5 年到 10 年的市場？或者你認為你真的需要對那些將會持續發展下去的平台做出一些真正的決定嗎？我很好奇你是如何進行這類投資的，以及你認為你需要做出什麼程度的決策？速度有多快？

Yes. So we are exploring a lot of different avenues with full electric hydrogen fuel cell, hybrid. And so we've got a really diversified program. We've got trucks that are in the field being tested. And as we look at the truck segments that we participate in, we think the part where the involvement will be the greatest will probably be on the medium-duty side, the lighter heavy side, regional urban deliveries, where they can support the range. Still, the issue is the economic viability of electric and fuel cell vehicles just because the up-charge, typical electric truck's going to be about twice as expensive as a normal diesel vehicle. So as long as there's subsidies and as long as maybe the regulations dictate zero-emission vehicles in certain zones in large cities, that's going to create some demand. But until it's economically feasible, there won't be widespread demand. So that could be 5-plus years.

是的。所以我們正在探索很多不同的途徑，包括純電動、氫燃料電池、混合動力等等。因此，我們的項目種類非常豐富。我們有卡車正在現場進行測試。當我們審視我們參與的卡車細分市場時，我們認為參與度最高的領域可能是中型卡車、輕型卡車、區域城市配送，在這些領域，我們可以提供支援。不過，問題在於電動車和燃料電池車的經濟可行性，因為加裝的普通電動卡車的價格大約是普通柴油車的兩倍。只要有補貼，只要法規規定大城市的某些區域必須使用零排放車輛，就會產生一定的需求。但只有當它在經濟上可行時，才會出現廣泛的需求。所以可能要五年以上。

Perfect. And that 5-plus years applies to even like the medium-duty and the in-town Class 8s? I mean, obviously, long haul's a long way out, right? But I don't know if you feel...

完美的。即使是中型貨車和市內行駛的8級貨車，也適用5年以上的保固期嗎？我的意思是，很顯然，長途旅行是指很遠的路，對吧？但我不知道你是否也有這種感覺…

I don't think it applies to all because, again, the economic feasibility has got to make sense for the customer.

我認為這並不適用於所有人，因為，再次強調，經濟可行性必須對客戶有意義。

Your next question comes from Robert Salmon with Wolfe Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Robert Salmon。

You've taken up the parts revenue outlook the past few quarters. And I guess piggybacking on an earlier question about kind of the MX engines, can you give us a sense of how we should think about the revenue growth opportunity longer term, in parts?

過去幾個季度，您都關注了零件收入前景。我想藉用先前關於 MX 引擎的問題，您能否分部分地談談我們應該如何看待長期的收入成長機會？

If you look at the last 15 years of our parts revenue development, it's averaged an 8% average annual growth over that period. And I think with the engines, I don't see any reason that we'll see a significant deviation. Again, the team has done a great job. We continue to make strategic investments in new distribution capability, continue to invest in technology in those distribution centers to be able to have the best parts availability and on-time delivery for our customers. The programs the team has put together continue to be enhanced. And so I think that we'll continue to see that pace of growth, I think, as we look into the future.

如果回顧我們過去 15 年的零件收入發展情況，會發現在此期間平均每年增長 8%。我認為就引擎而言，我看不出有什麼理由會出現重大偏差。團隊再次表現出色。我們將繼續對新的分銷能力進行策略性投資，並繼續投資於這些分銷中心的技術，以便能夠為客戶提供最佳的零件供應和準時交付。團隊制定的方案不斷改進。所以我認為，展望未來，我們將繼續看到這種成長速度。

That's helpful. And if I'm kind of thinking about your factory utilization. You've obviously brought up production rates more recently. Can you give us a sense of where you are on kind of number of shifts, where that can go to before you see potential constraints in terms of PACCAR hitting its customer needs?

那很有幫助。如果我指的是你們工廠的利用率的話。顯然，你最近又多次提到了生產力的問題。您能否大致說明一下，在輪班數量方面，您認為在 PACCAR 滿足客戶需求方面，輪班數量可以達到什麼程度，才會出現潛在的限制？

Well, we have assembly capacity that can go well beyond. But obviously, it's a -- as I said before, it's a very coordinated effort that is required with our suppliers to make sure that we've got all the components to be able to support the trucks, and our teams have done a great job of delivering on that. So it just has to develop over time as we work with our supply base and our teams to make sure that we're doing it cost effectively and efficiently.

我們的組裝能力完全可以滿足需求。但顯然，正如我之前所說，這需要與我們的供應商進行非常協調的努力，以確保我們擁有所有必要的組件來支援卡車，而我們的團隊在這方面做得非常出色。因此，它需要隨著時間的推移而發展，我們需要與我們的供應商和團隊合作，以確保我們以經濟高效的方式完成這項工作。

Of course. And I guess, if I'm thinking about your answer, how much flexibility do you have with your supplier base to increase further from where the build plan is going for '18?

當然。我想，如果我理解你的回答，你的供應商基礎在 2018 年的建設計劃基礎上還有多大的靈活性來進一步擴大規模？

We always seem to be able to find a way to get that next incremental truck. So I don't think there is a limit on what we can do. It just takes gradual progression over time.

我們似乎總是能找到辦法弄到下一輛卡車。所以我認為我們能做的事情沒有限制。這需要隨著時間的推移逐步推進。

Of course. And if I can squeeze one more in. From your customer base, how many of orders are coming in without a trade? I.e., kind of net fleet growth, particularly in the kind of the smaller owner-operator and kind of medium-sized fleets that you guys interact with.

當然。如果我能再擠出一個就好了。在您的客戶群中，有多少訂單是在沒有進行交易的情況下下的？也就是說，淨車隊成長，特別是你們接觸到的小型自營車隊和中型車隊。

Oh, the vast majority would come in without a trade. Yes.

哦，絕大多數人無需交易就能進來。是的。

Your next question comes from Mario Gabelli with GAMCO Investors.

下一個問題來自 GAMCO Investors 的 Mario Gabelli。

I'm just trying to figure out this -- you may have mentioned it back in February. But 100% write-off used equipment, how -- what's happened to the used truck fleet in light of the ability to deduct 100%? And then, the same thing with regards to your dealers preordering, so you kind of tick and tie the 2 together? And then, I'm going to assume that what happens in November -- after the election, that 100% write-off is eliminated. Do you get a surge in orders for equipment, but you can't handle it?

我只是想弄清楚這件事——你可能在二月提到過。但是，如果可以100%註銷二手設備，那麼二手卡車車隊的情況會如何呢？那麼，經銷商的預訂也是一樣，所以你們要把這兩件事連結起來？然後，我假設11月大選後，100%的稅收抵免政策將被取消。設備訂單激增，但你卻無法處理嗎？

Yes. I think the demand for orders has largely been driven by the economics, the demand for freight by shippers to get freights, get goods delivered. Obviously, the 100% deductibility of equipment costs is definitely a positive for customers both new and used. And we have seen some uptick in the demand for used trucks as well as the pricing for used trucks and how you attribute that to the tax change or other things. But it's in one of the factors, I'm sure...

是的。我認為訂單需求主要受經濟因素驅動，即托運人對貨運的需求，即貨物的運輸和交付。顯然，設備成本100%可抵扣對新客戶和二手客戶來說絕對是件好事。我們看到二手卡車的需求上升，二手卡車的價格也有所上漲，您認為這是稅收變化還是其他因素造成的？但我確信，這肯定包含在其中一個因素之中…

And now for the easy one, Navistar -- Volkswagen has taken their company public. They'll be buying Navistar at some point. There's some discussions that Marchionne is going to be leaving and retiring, and he wants to merge IVECO with someone. The only logical player is DAF, i.e. which on any of these would you comment on? Let's start with the easy one, Navistar and Volkswagen, any particular changes in distribution as a result?

現在來說說最簡單的，納威司達——大眾汽車已經將其公司上市了。他們遲早會收購納威司達。有傳言說馬爾喬內即將離職退休，他想把依維柯和某家公司合併。唯一合乎邏輯的參與者是 DAF，即您對以上哪些方面有什麼看法？我們先從簡單的說起，Navistar 和大眾汽車，它們的經銷管道因此發生了哪些具體變化？

No. We've expected that to be there for -- since they...

不。我們一直期望它能一直存在──因為他們…

Some time, yes, I know. Listen, I was just on a rush call, so I'll listen to what Rusty says about life and liberty.

我知道，還需要一段時間。聽著，我剛才剛接了個緊急電話，所以我會聽聽拉斯蒂對生命和自由的看法。

Your last question comes from Steve Volkmann with Jefferies.

最後一個問題來自傑富瑞集團的史蒂夫沃克曼。

I snuck one in. I was just curious, how you guys are thinking about cash these days. You have like $3.5 billion, I know you like to have cash on the balance sheet, but I'm assuming you have a little more flexibility post the tax changes, et cetera. And I'm curious if you're -- have any thoughts relative to share repurchases? Or do you prefer to just kind of put it into the dividend at year-end? Or just any guidelines about how you think about that?

我偷偷帶進去了一個。我只是好奇，你們現在是怎麼看待現金問題的。你們大約有 35 億美元，我知道你們喜歡在資產負債表上保留現金，但我假設在稅收政策變化等因素之後，你們會有更大的靈活性。我很好奇您對股票回購有什麼看法？或者您更傾向於將其計入年底的股息中？或者您有什麼關於如何思考這個問題的指導原則嗎？

Yes. I mean, if you look at our cash balances -- balance relative to our asset base, it's stayed in the 15% to 20% range over quite some time, and that's about where it's at currently. So we're quite comfortable with where we're at. And obviously, the tax law provides some additional benefits that the Board will take a look and evaluate, as they always do, the opportunity to repurchase shares and to pay dividends. So it's an ongoing capital allocation assessment that gets discussed at the Board meetings.

是的。我的意思是，如果你看一下我們的現金餘額——相對於我們資產基礎的餘額，它在相當長的一段時間內一直保持在 15% 到 20% 的範圍內，目前也差不多在這個範圍內。所以我們對現狀相當滿意。顯然，稅法還提供了額外的優惠，董事會將像往常一樣對此進行審查和評估，包括回購股票和支付股息的機會。因此，這是一項持續進行的資本配置評估，將在董事會會議上進行討論。

There are no other questions in the queue at this time. Are there any additional remarks from the company?

目前隊列中沒有其他問題。公司還有其他補充說明嗎？

We'd like to thank everyone for participating and thank you, operator.

感謝大家的參與，也感謝操作員。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes PACCAR's earnings call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，PACCAR的財報電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。