帕卡 (PCAR) 2017 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to PACCAR's Second Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Today's call is being recorded, and if anyone has any objections, they should disconnect at this time.

早安，歡迎參加 PACCAR 2017 年第二季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）今天的通話正在錄音，如有任何異議，請立即掛斷電話。

I would now like to introduce Mr. Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. Mr. Hastings, please go ahead.

現在我謹向大家介紹 PACCAR 的投資者關係總監 Ken Hastings 先生。哈斯廷斯先生，請繼續。

Good morning. We would like to welcome those listening by phone and those on the webcast. My name is Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. And joining me this morning are Ron Armstrong, Chief Executive Officer; Harrie Schippers, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Michael Barkley, Senior Vice President and Controller.

早安.我們歡迎透過電話收聽的聽眾和透過網路直播收聽的聽眾。我是肯‧黑斯廷斯，PACCAR公司的投資人關係總監。今天早上和我一起出席的有：執行長 Ron Armstrong；執行副總裁兼財務長 Harrie Schippers；以及高級副總裁兼財務總監 Michael Barkley。

As with prior conference calls, we ask that any members of the media on the line participate in a listen-only mode.

與以往的電話會議一樣，我們要求所有參與電話會議的媒體成員以只聽模式參與。

Certain information presented today will be forward-looking and involve risks and uncertainties, including general economic and competitive conditions that may affect expected results.

今天公佈的某些資訊屬於前瞻性訊息，涉及風險和不確定性，包括可能影響預期結果的總體經濟和競爭狀況。

I would now like to introduce Ron Armstrong.

現在我來介紹羅恩·阿姆斯特朗。

Good morning. PACCAR reported strong revenues and net income for the second quarter of 2017. PACCAR's second quarter sales and Financial Services revenues were $4.7 billion, and second quarter net income was $373 million, a 7.9% after-tax return on revenues. PACCAR Parts achieved record quarterly revenues of $823 million, and record pretax profits of $152 million. PACCAR achieved excellent combined truck and parts gross margins of 14.6%, driven by higher North American truck deliveries, the strong European truck market and the record PACCAR Parts results. I'm very proud of our 24,500 employees around the world who have delivered outstanding products and services to our customers.

早安.PACCAR公佈了2017年第二季強勁的營收和淨利。PACCAR 第二季銷售額和金融服務收入為 47 億美元，第二季淨收入為 3.73 億美元，稅後收入報酬率為 7.9%。PACCAR Parts 實現了創紀錄的季度收入 8.23 億美元，稅前利潤 1.52 億美元。PACCAR 卡車及零件業務的毛利率合計達到 14.6%，這主要得益於北美卡車交付量的增加、歐洲卡車市場的強勁表現以及 PACCAR 零件業務創紀錄的業績。我為我們遍布全球的 24,500 名員工感到非常自豪，他們為我們的客戶提供了卓越的產品和服務。

PACCAR delivered 39,400 trucks during the second quarter, 13% higher than the first quarter and 6% above last year's second quarter. Peterbilt and Kenworth raised build rates during the quarter in response to robust order intake this year. Looking ahead, PACCAR expects 2% to 3% higher deliveries in the third quarter compared to the second due to the higher build rates in all markets, partially offset by fewer build days in Europe due to the normal summer shutdown. Third quarter gross margins are projected to be comparable to second quarter margins.

PACCAR 第二季度交付了 39,400 輛卡車，比第一季成長了 13%，比去年第二季成長了 6%。由於今年訂單量強勁，Peterbilt 和 Kenworth 在本季提高了生產速度。展望未來，由於所有市場的產量增加，PACCAR預計第三季交付量將比第二季成長2%至3%，但歐洲夏季正常停工導致生產天數減少，部分抵銷了這一成長。預計第三季毛利率將與第二季毛利率持平。

We've raised our forecast for Europe's above 16-tonne market to a range of 290,000 to 310,000 units, reflecting strong demand and the steady economic outlook. Europe's GDP growth expectations for this year are 1.8% in the U.K. and on the continent. Freight transport activity on German highways year-to-date was at record levels and up 3.6% compared to the same period last year.

我們已將歐洲 16 噸以上卡車市場的預測值上調至 29 萬至 31 萬輛，這反映了強勁的需求和穩定的經濟前景。今年歐洲的GDP成長預期為英國和歐洲大陸1.8%。今年迄今為止，德國高速公路的貨運活動已達到創紀錄水平，比去年同期成長了 3.6%。

During the second quarter, DAF introduced new model year 2017 XF and CF trucks which deliver up to 7% higher fuel economy compared to the previous models. This contributed to DAF's 10% growth in above 16-tonne orders in the first half this year compared to the same period last year.

第二季度，DAF推出了2017年新車型XF和CF卡車，與之前的車型相比，燃油經濟性提高了7%。與去年同期相比，這使得 DAF 今年上半年 16 噸以上的訂單量增加了 10%。

U.S. and Canadian Class 8 truck industry retail sales are expected to be in the range of 200,000 to 220,000 units this year. Class 8 truck industry orders were up 44% in the first half this year compared to the same period in 2016. Peterbilt and Kenworth's Class 8 retail sales market share was an excellent 31% in the second quarter and 29.6% year-to-date through June.

今年美國和加拿大8級卡車產業的零售銷售量預計將在20萬至22萬輛之間。今年上半年，8級卡車產業的訂單量比2016年同期成長了44%。Peterbilt 和 Kenworth 的 8 級卡車零售市佔率在第二季達到了 31%，今年截至 6 月的累計市佔率為 29.6%。

Customers appreciate the ongoing investments by Kenworth and Peterbilt in enhanced truck models, expanded PACCAR powertrain options and onboard technology. The U.S. economy's steady expansion is projected to be 2.2% GDP growth and 1.8% industrial production growth this year, supporting healthy freight levels.

客戶讚賞 Kenworth 和 Peterbilt 不斷投資改進卡車車型、擴展 PACCAR 動力系統選擇和車載技術。今年美國經濟穩定擴張，預計國內生產毛額成長2.2%，工業生產成長1.8%，這將支撐貨運量維持健康成長。

PACCAR Parts' quarterly pretax income of $152 million was 14% higher than a year ago. PACCAR Parts' quarterly revenues of $823 million were 9% higher than in the same quarter of last year. These results were driven by the growing number of PACCAR trucks and engines in operation, our outstanding logistics capabilities which provide high parts availability to dealers and customers, and the growing number of TRP All Makes retail stores globally.

PACCAR Parts 的季度稅前收入為 1.52 億美元，比去年同期成長了 14%。PACCAR Parts 的季度營收為 8.23 億美元，比去年同期成長了 9%。這些成果的成就得益於 PACCAR 卡車和引擎營運數量的不斷增長、我們卓越的物流能力為經銷商和客戶提供充足的零件供應，以及 TRP All Makes 零售店在全球數量的不斷增長。

PACCAR Financial Services' second quarter pretax income increased 10% to $63 million compared to $57 million last quarter. The portfolio continued to perform well. U.S. Class 8 industry truck -- used trucks volumes increased during the quarter. Kenworth and Peterbilt truck resale values continue to command a 10% to 20% premium over competitors' vehicles.

PACCAR金融服務公司第二季稅前營收成長10%，達到6,300萬美元，而上一季為5,700萬美元。該投資組合繼續表現良好。美國 8 級卡車產業－二手卡車銷量在本季有所成長。Kenworth 和 Peterbilt 卡車的轉售價格仍然比競爭對手的車輛高出 10% 到 20%。

PACCAR's strong balance sheet and positive cash flow have enabled the company to invest over $3 billion in new products and facilities in the last 5 years. This year, capital expenditures of $375 million to $425 million and research and development expenses of $250 million to $270 million are targeted for truck and powertrain product development, enhanced manufacturing and parts distribution facilities and aftermarket support programs.

PACCAR 強勁的資產負債表和正現金流使公司在過去 5 年中投資超過 30 億美元用於新產品和新設施。今年，計劃投入 3.75 億美元至 4.25 億美元的資本支出，以及 2.5 億美元至 2.7 億美元的研發費用，用於卡車和動力總成產品開發、增強製造和零部件分銷設施以及售後市場支持計劃。

We're pleased to announce then new PACCAR Silicon Valley Innovation Center which will open this year in Sunnyvale, California. The facility will coordinate next-generation product development, and will identify emerging technologies for the benefit of future vehicle performance. The Innovation Center will develop exciting new technology applications for advanced driver assistance systems, artificial intelligence, vehicle connectivity and augmented reality, complementing the research and development currently happening in PACCAR's truck divisions and technical centers. PACCAR looks forward to expanding its partnerships with the many innovative technology companies in Silicon Valley.

我們很高興地宣布，位於加州桑尼維爾的全新 PACCAR 矽谷創新中心將於今年開幕。該設施將協調下一代產品的開發，並將確定有利於未來車輛性能的新興技術。該創新中心將開發令人興奮的新技術應用，用於高級駕駛輔助系統、人工智慧、車輛互聯和擴增實境，以補充 PACCAR 卡車部門和技術中心目前正在進行的研究和開發工作。PACCAR期待擴大與矽谷眾多創新科技公司的合作關係。

We're very proud of our team at the PACCAR engine factory in Columbus, Mississippi. Since opening in 2010, the plant has demonstrated its world-class diesel engine manufacturing capabilities and was recently named Quality Magazine's plant of the year. We are nearing completion of a $35 million investment in additional capacity at Columbus to support growing customer demand for the PACCAR MX-13 and PACCAR MX-11 engines.

我們為位於密西西比州哥倫布市的 PACCAR 引擎工廠的團隊感到非常自豪。自 2010 年投產以來，該廠已展現出世界一流的柴油引擎製造能力，並於近期被《品質雜誌》評為年度最佳工廠。我們即將完成在哥倫布市投資 3,500 萬美元增加產能的計劃，以滿足客戶對 PACCAR MX-13 和 PACCAR MX-11 引擎日益增長的需求。

PACCAR continues to enhance its leadership position in the global truck market by delivering the highest quality products and services in the industry.

PACCAR 透過提供業界最高品質的產品和服務，不斷鞏固其在全球卡車市場的領先地位。

Thank you. I'd be pleased to answer your questions.

謝謝。我很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question will come from the line of Ann Duignan of JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題將來自摩根大通的安·杜伊根。

Can I just clarify the comments you made about higher deliveries quarter-over-quarter in Q3 because that would not typically be the seasonal expectation we'd have. Was that a North America comment? Or was that total deliveries?

我能否澄清一下您關於第三季交貨量環比增長的評論，因為這通常不符合我們的季節性預期。這是針對北美地區的評論嗎？還是說那是總交付量？

Total deliveries are up 2% to 3%, so the higher average build rates in North America as well as in Australia, Mexico and Brazil are then offset by the seasonal summer shutdown in Europe.

總交付量增加了 2% 至 3%，因此北美以及澳洲、墨西哥和巴西較高的平均生產力被歐洲的季節性夏季停工所抵消。

Okay. That's helpful and good to know. And then would you expect -- there's nothing to suggest given the level of backlog you have and given the orders that you have, there's nothing to suggest that daily builds would slow in Q4, is there?

好的。這很有幫助，值得了解。那麼，鑑於你們目前的積壓訂單量和訂單情況，沒有任何跡象表明第四季度的每日生產速度會放緩，對嗎？

At this point, assuming the economy continues to tick along and we feel good about our build rates and maintaining those through the rest of this year.

目前來看，假設經濟持續穩定發展，我們對目前的建設速度感到滿意，並希望在今年餘下的時間裡保持這一速度。

Okay. And then just as a follow-up. On the Finkel business, can you talk about used values? I know you mentioned that yes, you command a premium but the premium could be off 0. So can you talk about used values? And what you're seeing out there? And whether we've really stabilized? Or is there any downside risk still to used values?

好的。然後，作為後續。關於 Finkel 的業務，您能談談二手價值嗎？我知道您提到過，您的房產確實能賣出溢價，但溢價可能接近零。那麼，您能談談二手房的價值嗎？你看到了什麼？我們真的已經穩定下來了嗎？或者說，使用現有估值仍然存在任何下行風險嗎？

Yes, I think in the second quarter, the values in Europe were very stable, and in the U.S., down just slightly but very comparable to first quarter levels. And the amount of the used truck results in the second quarter were about $4 million better than the first quarter.

是的，我認為第二季歐洲的數值非常穩定，而美國的數值略有下降，但與第一季的水準非常接近。第二季二手卡車的銷售額比第一季增加了約 400 萬美元。

Your next question will come from the line of Jamie Cook of Crédit Suisse.

你的下一個問題將來自瑞士信貸的傑米庫克。

I appreciate your color on the gross margins for the third quarter, I think you said comparable to the second quarter. Should we assume your margin forecast for the year is now up versus where you guys guided to last quarter, just because of the run rate that we're at? So I guess that would be my first question. And then, I guess, my second question, can you just talk about sort of the order board in the U.S. and Europe, how widespread it is? In the U.S., is it -- are the big guys stepping in? Is it the small fleets? Just any color on where strength is coming from.

我非常讚賞您對第三季毛利率的分析，您提到與第二季相比具有可比性。我們是否應該假設，由於我們目前的營運速度，你們今年的利潤率預測會高於你們上個季度給出的預測？所以，我想這應該是我的第一個問題。那麼，我的第二個問題是，您能否談談美國和歐洲的訂單板，以及它的普及程度？在美國，情況是否如此──大公司是否正在介入？是小型艦隊的問題嗎？任何顏色都可以用來表示力量的來源。

So I think we talked earlier about a range of 14% to 14.5%. I think we'll be closer to the upper end of that range for the full year. And when it comes to demand, I think it's pretty broad-based whether you look at vocational, you look at on-highway, you look at fleet, both small, mid and large. I think it's a good cross-section. We've seen all the segments go up as we progress through the course of the year.

所以我想我們之前討論過14%到14.5%的範圍。我認為我們全年的業績會更接近這個範圍的上限。至於需求方面，我認為無論從專業領域、公路運輸領域或車隊（包括小型、中型和大型車隊）來看，需求都非常廣泛。我認為這是一個很好的橫斷面分析。我們看到，隨著時間的推移，各個細分市場都在成長。

And any color on the order board geographically? Whether it's in Europe or the U.S.?

訂單板上的顏色會依地理位置劃分嗎？無論是在歐洲還是美國？

Both are very solid, so we're in good shape as we look, sit here today. The backlogs are strong.

兩者都非常穩健，所以就我們目前的情況來看，情況不錯。積壓案件很多。

Your next question will come from the line of Ross Gilardi of Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

你的下一個問題將來自美國銀行美林證券的羅斯·吉拉迪。

I was wondering if you guys could talk a little bit more about truck margin. I mean I know clearly that you saw some sequential recovery in truck margin but you're still down on positive sales growth in truck only. Can you help us a little bit with the year-on-year bridge? And specifically what's happened with pricing?

我想請你們再詳細談談卡車運輸的利潤率。我的意思是，我知道你們的卡車利潤率確實出現了一些環比回升，但你們的卡車銷售額仍然沒有實現正增長。您能幫我們解決一下同比數據的問題嗎？具體來說，價格方面發生了什麼變化？

It's really -- the primary thing impacting is currency movements, primarily the impact of the pound versus the euro and the peso versus the dollar. If you adjust for those, then they're very comparable.

實際上，主要影響因素是貨幣波動，尤其是英鎊兌歐元和比索兌美元的匯率波動。如果考慮到這些因素，那麼它們就非常相似了。

Got it. Okay. And then can you say, did you experience any disruption in the European truck business due to bottlenecks in the supply chain or anything? One of your competitors was pretty vocal about that last week.

知道了。好的。那麼，您能否說一下，由於供應鏈瓶頸或其他原因，歐洲卡車業務是否受到任何影響？上週，你的一個競爭對手就此事大肆宣揚。

No. We have not seen any impacts as a result of supplier disruptions at all. Suppliers are doing great.

不。我們完全沒有看到供應商中斷造成的任何影響。供應商表現出色。

Your next question will come from the line of Joel Tiss of BMO Capital Markets.

你的下一個問題將來自 BMO 資本市場的 Joel Tiss。

Really terrible quarter. We're getting bored from all these beats. I just wondered, I guess you guys got to stick with your strengths, right?

真是糟糕的一個季度。我們聽膩了這些節奏。我只是好奇，我想你們應該堅持發揮自己的優勢吧？

We do what we do and we try to do it well.

我們做好我們該做的事，並且努力把它做好。

I just wondered if you could give us a sense, is Brazil -- has it turned the corner? Is it profitable at this point? And any sense maybe by 2020, like to fuzz it up enough to give us some color, where do you think your market share could be?

我只是想問您能否給我們介紹一下，巴西的情況——它是否已經扭轉了局面？現在還有獲利嗎？到 2020 年，或許可以稍微模糊一下，給我們一些更清晰的描述，你認為你的市佔率會達到什麼水準？

Well, the team has done a great job of building the business. And as we have progressed through the course of this year, we're going to take an additional build rate increase during the third quarter to support the increasing demand. The product is doing just extremely well in the market. Our dealers are continuing to invest and build their businesses in spite of a very difficult economy and difficult truck market. We feel like the investments that we made will provide an excellent long-term return for shareholders. So we've been able to grow our share from 0% up to 5-plus percent in the above 40 tonne segment of that market. So I think that pace of growth will continue to be an opportunity for our DAF business there as we progress through the next 2, 3, 4, 5 years. So hopefully we could double that position in that time frame.

團隊在業務拓展方面做得非常出色。隨著今年情況的發展，為了滿足不斷增長的需求，我們將在第三季進一步提高生產速度。這款產品在市場上表現非常出色。儘管經濟形勢嚴峻，卡車市場也面臨困境，但我們的經銷商仍在繼續投資和發展業務。我們相信，我們所做的投資將為股東帶來極佳的長期回報。因此，我們在該市場40噸以上細分市場的份額已從0%成長到5%以上。所以我認為，在接下來的 2、3、4、5 年裡，這種成長速度將繼續為我們在當地的 DAF 業務帶來機會。所以，希望我們能在那段時間內將這個數字翻倍。

Great. And then on the engine business, is the North American aftermarket starting to kick in? Or is it still a little bit too early for that?

偉大的。那麼，在引擎領域，北美售後市場是否開始蓬勃發展了？或者現在討論這個還為時過早？

No. I think it's -- the more engines, I think, we're up to about 140,000 PACCAR MX engines in the park as we sit here today. And so we'll continue to increment that as we progress, so it's progressing all the time. It's probably the single biggest growth there for the Parts division in terms of the various segments of their Parts business.

不。我認為——引擎越多越好，我認為，截至今天我們坐在這裡的時候，公園裡大約有 14 萬台 PACCAR MX 引擎。因此，隨著專案的推進，我們會不斷增加這個數值，所以它一直在進步。就其零件業務的各個細分領域而言，這可能是零件部門成長最快的單一成長。

Your next question will come from the line of Jerry Revich of Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題將來自高盛的傑瑞·雷維奇。

I'm wondering if you could talk about your longer-term R&D outlook. So in the press release, you spoke about all of the growth initiatives you folks are pursuing on the technology side. And as you think about your R&D budget, should we be thinking about that moving higher as a percentage of sales off of 2017 levels? Or is that just a change in prioritization versus other investments? How should we think about that?

我想請您談談貴公司長期的研發發展望。在新聞稿中，你們談到了公司在技術方面正在推行的所有成長計劃。在考慮研發預算時，我們是否應該考慮提高研發預算佔銷售額的比例，使其高於 2017 年的水準？或者這只是與其他投資相比，優先順序發生了變化？我們該如何看待這個問題？

We usually don't think about it as a percent of revenue, we think about it in terms of absolute dollars and how much we're investing to support what we see as our strategic direction for the next 4, 5 years. And I think what you'll see is maybe a steady, slight increase year-on-year as we continue to invest in the many things that we talked about with driver -- advanced driver assistance systems, vehicle connectivity, continuing to build on the efficiency of our powertrain, adding powertrain options for our customers. So I think it will be pretty steady with a slight increase over time.

我們通常不會以收入百分比來考慮，而是以絕對金額來考慮，以及我們為了支持我們認為未來 4、5 年的策略方向而投入了多少資金。我認為你們將會看到，隨著我們繼續投資於我們與駕駛員討論過的許多方面——高級駕駛輔助系統、車輛互聯、不斷提高動力系統的效率、為我們的客戶增加動力系統選擇，可能會出現逐年穩步小幅增長。所以我認為它會相當穩定，隨著時間的推移略有增長。

And in terms of the front axle production that you've -- you folks are highlighting as ramping up in Texas, can you just give us a time frame of when you expect that facility to be at full production rate? And based on the specifications that you plan to produce there, what proportion of your fleet will be covered -- what proportion of your models will be covered by your own front axles once production ramps up?

至於你們重點提到的德州正在加緊生產的前橋，能否給我們一個預計該工廠何時能達到滿載生產的時間範圍？根據您計劃在那裡生產的規格，一旦產量增加，您的車隊中將有多少比例的車型將使用您自己的前軸？

So this is a 20,000-pound front axle and it's primarily for heavier vehicle applications. And so we'll start production, initial production in the third quarter and we'll see that ramp up over a 12-month period. And at full production, it could be up to 20% of the axles that we put in our Class 8 vehicles.

這是一個重達 20,000 磅的前橋，主要用於較重的車輛。因此，我們將在第三季開始生產，初步生產將在 12 個月內逐步提高。全面投產後，我們8級車輛所用車軸的比例可能高達20%。

Your next question will come from the line of Seth Weber of RBC Capital Markets.

你的下一個問題將來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的賽斯韋伯。

I just wanted to ask about -- a couple of questions. On the Finkel margin, it improved from the first quarter 1Q to 2Q, but how long do you think it will take to kind of get back to that mid- to high 20% operating margin level? I mean you talked about sort of stabilizing used truck pricing. Do you expect the decks to be kind of cleared here by the end of the year? Or do you think that this sort of bleeds out further? First question.

我只想問幾個問題。Finkel 的利潤率從第一季到第二季有所提高，但您認為需要多久才能恢復到 20% 中高水準的營業利潤率？我的意思是，你剛才提到要穩定二手卡車的價格。你預計到年底這裡的事情就能基本解決嗎？還是你認為這種情況會進一步惡化？第一個問題。

Well, I think we've -- we're probably selling a few more trucks than we're taking in, in the first half of this year. We'll probably see that continue a little bit in the second half. And then things, in terms of volumes, will get sort of balanced as we start next year in terms of what we're selling versus what's coming in.

嗯，我認為今年上半年我們賣出的卡車數量可能比進貨量要多一些。下半場這種情況可能還會持續一段時間。然後，從銷售來看，明年年初，我們的銷售量和進貨量將會趨於平衡。

Okay. So you think it's fair to expect that margins next year could be more kind of "normal" relative to what we've seen over the last half a dozen years or so?

好的。所以你認為，與過去六、七年來我們看到的情況相比，明年利潤率有望更加「正常」嗎？

Yes, it really just depends. The key thing is the used truck valuations in the market, and so we'll see how that moves. But part of the positive thing for PACCAR Financial, particularly in the U.S., that beginning next year, pretty much all the returns that will be coming off lease will be the 2.1-meter model truck compared to the legacy 1.9 meter. So that gives us some upside on the used truck valuations going forward as well.

是的，這真的要看情況。關鍵在於二手卡車的市場估值，所以我們將拭目以待。但對 PACCAR Financial 來說，尤其是在美國，積極的一面是，從明年開始，幾乎所有租賃到期的車輛都將是 2.1 公尺的卡車，而不是傳統的 1.9 公尺卡車。因此，這也預示著未來二手卡車的估值會有一定的上漲空間。

That's good color. And then just maybe a follow-up on Europe. Is there any granularity you could help with Eastern Europe versus Western Europe? I think last quarter you talked about some strength in some of the -- in Russia or some of the Eastern European markets. Is there any update there that you could share?

顏色真好看。然後或許可以跟進一下歐洲的狀況。您能否提供一些關於東歐和西歐的具體細節的協助？我認為上個季度您曾提到俄羅斯或東歐一些市場的強勁表現。請問您那邊有什麼最新進展可以分享嗎？

I'd say the strength in Russia continues. We're seeing good orders continuing to deliver. And so we'll...

我認為俄羅斯的實力依然強勁。我們看到訂單持續穩定成長。所以，我們將…

And the rest of Eastern Europe is developing very similar to Western Europe for the first half of this year.

今年上半年，東歐其他地區的經濟發展與西歐非常相似。

Your next question will come from the line of Nicole DeBlase from Deutsche Bank.

你的下一個問題將來自德意志銀行的妮可·德布萊斯。

I guess starting with price/cost. So I suspect that higher material costs were probably a headwind within the truck segment with respect to margins this quarter. Does that continue into the second half? Or do material cost headwinds ease from here?

我想先從價格/成本說起。因此，我懷疑本季卡車產業的利潤率可能受到材料成本上漲的不利影響。這種情況會延續到下半場嗎？或者說，原料成本方面的不利因素會從此有所緩解嗎？

Yes. It wasn't much of a factor in the results for the quarter. There are some upward pressures but we have long-term agreements and those impacts tend to get spread over time and managed through. And so that wasn't a significant impact. The key impact of margins for the quarter was primarily the currency impacts I referenced earlier.

是的。這並沒有對本季的業績產生太大影響。雖然存在一些上行壓力，但我們有長期協議，這些影響往往會隨著時間的推移而分散並控制。所以，這並沒有造成重大影響。本季利潤率的主要影響因素是我之前提到的匯率影響。

Okay, got it. That's helpful, Ron. And then secondly, if it's possible to give us a little bit more color on the 3Q delivery guidance. So the up 2% to 3% Q-on-Q, what's the order of magnitude for the growth in North America versus the decline in Europe that you guys are embedding?

好的，明白了。那很有幫助，羅恩。其次，能否再詳細介紹一下第三季的交付預期？所以，你們預測的環比成長 2% 到 3%，北美地區的成長幅度與你們預測的歐洲地區的下降幅度相比，究竟是多少？

Let me see if I can. So Europe would be down about 10% because of the summer shutdown period. And conversely, North America is probably up about 10%.

我看看能不能做到。因此，由於夏季停工期，歐洲經濟將下降約 10%。反之，北美地區的成長幅度可能約為 10%。

Your next question will come from the line of Andy Casey of Wells Fargo Securities.

你的下一個問題將來自富國證券的安迪凱西。

Just wanted to go back to an earlier question, I think it was Jamie, about segments within the NAFTA market. Are you seeing any increase in interest from the long haul truckload customers compared to earlier in the year that may support an expectation that the normal increase order activity towards the end of the year would take place?

我想回到之前的一個問題，我記得是 Jamie 問的，關於北美自由貿易協定市場內部的市場區隔。與今年稍早相比，您​​是否觀察到長途整車運輸客戶的興趣增加，這或許可以支持年底訂單量正常成長的預期？

Yes. Our order intake has trended upward during the course of the year compared to if you look back to the latter parts of last year and we continue to see on-highway truck orders build quarter-on-quarter.

是的。與去年下半年相比，我們今年的訂單量呈上升趨勢，而且我們看到公路卡車訂單量繼續逐季增長。

Well, that's good to hear. Has vocational and energy remained strong for you folks?

那真是個好消息。你們的職業熱情和精力是否依然旺盛？

Oh, yes. For sure. It's been a good order inflow in terms of the mix. Both of them have gone up and probably on-highway a little bit faster from an order standpoint than vocation.

哦是的。一定。從產品組合來看，訂單流入情況良好。它們都上漲了，而且從秩序的角度來看，它們在高速公路上的速度可能比職業道路快一些。

Your next question will come from the line of David Leiker of Robert W. Baird.

你的下一個問題將來自羅伯特·W·貝爾德的戴維·萊克爾的血統。

A couple of numbers-related questions here for you. When you look at the cash flow statement, there's a pretty big negative outflow on working capital. It looks like

這裡有幾個和數字有關的問題想問你。從現金流量表可以看出，營運資金有相當大的負流出。看起來像

(technical difficulty)

（技術難題）

in most of that. Any additional color on that?

大部分情況都是如此。還有其他顏色方面的資訊嗎？

I think the biggest item was floor plan financing. I'll let Michael talk about that.

我認為最大的問題是房屋融資。這件事就讓麥可來說吧。

Yes. Last year, as our build rates were coming down and our inventories were -- dealer inventories were going down. We had an inflow from foreign receivables. And this year, as our build rates are coming up and our dealer inventories are going up, we're having an outflow with respect to that. So it's about a $400 million movement that you'll see moving that operating cash flow number. But as those trucks get delivered, they'll -- it'll become cash -- realized cash as the year progresses.

是的。去年，隨著我們的生產速度下降，我們的庫存——經銷商的庫存也在下降。我們有一筆來自國外的應收帳款流入。今年，隨著我們的生產速度加快，經銷商庫存增加，我們出現了這方面的出貨量。因此，你會看到大約 4 億美元的變動影響到營運現金流數據。但隨著這些卡車的交付，它們將會——將會變成現金——隨著時間的推移，這些現金將會變成實際的現金。

So the accounting rule, Mike has put that up in operating and the financing that we do for that is down in the investing section.

所以，會計準則方面，Mike 將其歸入營運部分，而我們為此進行的融資則歸入投資部分。

That's a good answer for that. And then just a follow-up question on currency, I want to see if we can dig a little bit deeper into it. With the strength in the euro here -- you had a couple of years of really weak euro. And from a transactional perspective would guess that that's probably positive for PACCAR with the euro going back up. Any way you can characterize how much of an impact a stronger euro might have on your growth profit dollars?

這是一個很好的答案。最後，關於貨幣問題，我想再深入探討。鑑於歐元目前的強勢——此前幾年歐元一直非常疲軟。從交易角度來看，歐元回升可能對 PACCAR 有利。您能否描述一下歐元走強可能會對您的成長利潤（美元）產生多大的影響？

So we have a bit of a natural hedge with respect to the translation of our euro-based financial statements, and we have euro-sourced components in the U.S. that we get the benefit of. So as the currency weakens and as it strengthens, we'll have more revenues and profits from DAF but that will be offset by some reduction then in the purchase cost for the components coming out of Europe. But it's a nice natural hedge that doesn't fully offset but it does offset (inaudible).

因此，我們在歐元財務報表的匯率轉換方面有一定的天然對沖作用，而且我們在美國也有源自歐元的零件，我們可以從中受益。因此，隨著貨幣貶值和升值，我們將從 DAF 獲得更多收入和利潤，但這將被從歐洲購買零件的成本降低所抵消。但這是一個不錯的天然樹籬，它雖然不能完全抵消，但確實起到了一定的抵消作用（聽不清楚）。

There'll be a little -- the line items, there's probably a little bit of a mismatch on gross profit versus SG&A.

可能會有一些——具體項目，毛利與銷售、管理及行政費用之間可能會有一些不符。

Yes, there is. There is. That's correct.

是的，有。有。沒錯。

Okay. And then just one last item on the vertical integration, producing axles for trucks here in North America, you're doing engines here in North America. I mean the next logical step there would seem to be transmissions. Any thoughts on that?

好的。最後再補充一點關於垂直整合的內容，你們在北美生產卡車車軸，你們也在北美生產引擎。我的意思是，接下來合乎邏輯的步驟似乎就是傳輸了。對此有什麼看法？

We have great partners both in Europe with ZF and Eaton here in North America. We work very closely with them to have integrated customized solutions for our powertrains. And so we expect that to continue for the foreseeable future.

我們在歐洲有優秀的合作夥伴，在北美有像ZF和伊頓這樣的合作夥伴。我們與他們緊密合作，為我們的動力系統提供整合的客製化解決方案。因此，我們預計這種情況在可預見的未來還會持續下去。

Your next question will come from the line of Stephen Volkmann of Jefferies.

你的下一個問題將來自傑富瑞集團的史蒂芬‧沃克曼。

Ron, I think, in the past we've talked about once we get past, hopefully get past, kind of a mid-cycle replacement kind of level of activity, which seems to be kind of around where we are now in North America, that you have an opportunity hopefully for some pricing. Do you still view the market that way?

羅恩，我認為，過去我們討論過，一旦我們度過了（希望能夠度過）中期更換週期的活動水平（這似乎正是我們現在在北美所處的階段），你就有機會獲得一些定價優惠。你現在仍然這樣看待市場嗎？

Yes, I think the market is good. We feel good about where it's at. Obviously, if you look back at 2015, 278,000 truck market compared to 215,000 or so this year. That demand -- supply/demand equation does provide some opportunities for pricing and so that could be in the future.

是的，我認為市場行情不錯。我們對現狀感到滿意。顯然，回顧 2015 年，卡車市場規模為 278,000 輛，而今年約為 215,000 輛。這種供需關係確實為定價提供了一些機會，因此未來可能會發生這種情況。

So if next year were to be higher, I'm not asking you to forecast that, but we might have a better pricing environment in that scenario?

所以，如果明年價格更高的話（我不是要你預測），但那樣的話我們或許可以擁有更好的定價環境？

It could be. Could be

有可能。有可能

Yes. And then can I ask you to maybe put on your long-term prognostication, is that right, hat? And you've opened your new center down in Silicon Valley and thinking a little bit about the future of truck transportation, et cetera. When you think about that, things like battery-powered trucks maybe, I know you may have a new competitor soon, automated trucking, platooning, et cetera, do you have a view on which of those technologies is likely to be sort of sooner rather than later? And then sort of following onto that, do you feel like you want to do this kind of stuff internally to PACCAR? Or is this the kind of thing where you look for some partners and -- as you go forward? I'll let you answer that however you like.

是的。那麼，我能請您戴上您的長期預測帽嗎？您在矽谷開設了新的中心，並開始思考卡車運輸的未來等等。考慮到電池驅動卡車之類的技術，我知道你們可能很快就會有新的競爭對手，還有自動駕駛卡車、車隊行駛等等，你認為這些技術中哪一項可能會更快普及？然後，順著這個思路，你是否覺得你想在 PACCAR 內部做這類事情？或者，這是那種你需要尋找一些合作夥伴，然後逐步前進的事情嗎？這個問題你想怎麼回答都行。

That is a multifaceted question but a good question. So as we think forward, we're talking with a lot of suppliers who are very interested in partnering with us for a variety of technology paths that we may take. And so I'd say we're currently in that assessment phase of evaluating the best path for our company. And so part of opening this office is getting greater, more immediate access to the technologies and the technology development so that we can be better informed and make better decisions. And I think we'll start with this office in a relatively small way but I think it will probably grow as time goes on. And all those things will be parts of the areas of study that are done in this office. And we'll stay very close to those developments and continue to formulate the specifics of our strategy as we go through the next year or 2.

這是一個涉及多方面的問題，但也是個好問題。因此，展望未來，我們正在與許多供應商洽談，他們對與我們合作，探索我們可能採取的各種技術路徑非常感興趣。所以我認為我們目前正處於評估階段，以確定公司發展的最佳路徑。因此，開設這個辦事處的部分原因是為了更廣泛、更直接地接觸到技術和技術發展，以便我們能夠更好地了解情況並做出更好的決策。我認為我們會從這個規模相對較小的辦公室開始，但隨著時間的推移，它可能會成長。所有這些都將成為本辦公室研究領域的一部分。我們將密切關注這些進展，並在未來一兩年內繼續制定我們策略的具體細節。

Okay. Any of those technologies kind of more attractive to you? Or maybe you're more skeptical about one or another?

好的。這些技術中，有沒有哪一項更吸引你？或者你對其中一個或另一些持懷疑態度？

No, I think the advanced driver assistance systems, those continue to progress. The camera technology, radar, lidar, all those technologies are developing pretty quickly. So I think they'll be the technology to support autonomy but how quickly will it actually happen in reality, and for the next decade, you're going to have a majority of nonautonomous trucks on the streets. So it's going to be a transition, and I'd say, a relatively gradual transition over time. So I think there will be progress in that area for sure. Batteries is -- just the size, there has to be a breakthrough in battery technology for there to be an economic -- economically viable solution for heavy-duty trucks. So again, we'll be very close to those developments. And as they occur, we work with a lot of potential partners in that arena now and we'll continue to stay close to that.

不，我認為高級駕駛輔助系統會繼續進步。攝影機技術、雷達、光達，所有這些技術都在快速發展。所以我認為它們將成為支援自動駕駛的技術，但現實中究竟能多快實現呢？在接下來的十年裡，街上仍將以非自動駕駛卡車為主。所以這將是一個過渡過程，而且我認為，這是一個相對漸進的過渡過程。所以我認為這方面肯定會取得進展。電池－僅僅是尺寸問題，電池技術必須取得突破，才能為重型卡車提供經濟可行的解決方案。所以，我們會密切注意這些進展。隨著這些機會的出現，我們現在與該領域的許多潛在合作夥伴合作，我們將繼續與該領域保持密切聯繫。

(Operator Instructions) Your next question will come from the line of Steven Fisher of UBS.

（操作員說明）您的下一個問題將來自瑞銀集團的史蒂文費雪。

I wonder if you could give us some color on how far out your backlog extends at this point, and how that lead time has developed over the course of the year. Kind of curious how much of your second half production schedule is booked at this point.

我想請您介紹一下目前您的積壓訂單有多少，以及這一年的交貨週期是如何變化的。很好奇你們下半年的製作計畫目前已經排滿了多少。

We typically don't talk that extensively about backlog. I'll just tell you that they're very solid and in good shape. The backlog position has maintained sort of that strong position throughout the year and we've been able to increase the build rates in all of our markets as a result of that. So we're -- we feel good about the current build rate plans for the quarter -- for the next quarter, and hopefully progressing through the rest of the year.

我們通常不會深入討論積壓工作。我只能說它們非常結實，狀態良好。今年以來，我們的積壓訂單一直保持強勁勢頭，因此我們得以在所有市場提高生產速度。所以，我們對本季目前的建設進度計畫感到滿意，對下一季也充滿信心，並希望這一勢頭能持續到今年年底。

And are you taking a notable amount of orders for 2018 or is it too soon for that?

你們2018年的訂單量是否已經相當可觀了？還是現在談這個還太早？

I think we're starting to see some. I wouldn't call it a notable amount, but there are some orders in the backlog for 2018 currently. But I think the discussion level about 2018 with, obviously, many of our larger customers, those discussions are starting to occur.

我認為我們已經開始看到一些跡象了。我不會稱之為相當可觀的數量，但目前 2018 年確實有一些訂單積壓。但我認為，關於 2018 年的討論，顯然，我們與許多大客戶的討論已經開始了。

Okay. And then just a quick one on the MX-11. How has that been performing from a warranty perspective? Do you have enough volumes to note any trends? And I know you mentioned that the currency was the big impact on the margins in the quarter. Did warranty have any notable impact on the margin this quarter?

好的。然後簡單介紹一下MX-11。從保固角度來看，它的表現如何？你們的樣本數夠大嗎？能看出什麼趨勢嗎？我知道您曾提到匯率波動對本季利潤率影響很大。本季保固業務對利潤率有顯著影響嗎？

No, no notable impact. The MX-11 is doing very well. The MX-11 was launched in Europe the fourth quarter of 2013, and we launched it here the beginning of 2016. And the engine has performed very well in both markets. And we're excited about the prospects for getting a greater penetration of that engine with our customers going forward.

沒有，沒有明顯影響。MX-11表現非常出色。MX-11 於 2013 年第四季在歐洲推出，我們於 2016 年初在這裡推出。這款引擎在兩個市場都表現出色。我們對未來該引擎在客戶群中取得更大突破的前景感到興奮。

Your next question comes from the line of Barry Haimes of Sage Asset Management.

你的下一個問題來自 Sage Asset Management 的 Barry Haimes。

I wonder if you could talk a little bit about the medium duty market and kind of what you're seeing there just in terms of order rates, trends, et cetera.

我想請您談談中型卡車市場，以及您在訂單量、趨勢等方面觀察到的情況。

This year, based on how we've produced medium duty trucks for the first half and our planned build rates for the second half, this could be a record medium duty production year for PACCAR. I think part of that is continued strong -- relatively strong market conditions, probably 50,000 to 55,000 trucks in Europe in the 6- to 16-tonne, and in the class 6, 7 market, probably in the 80,000 to 90,000 truck range. And the Peterbilt, Kenworth and DAF products are very well received in the markets and share positions are good. So like I said, this could be a record medium duty production year for PACCAR.

今年，根據我們上半年中型卡車的生產情況以及我們計劃下半年的生產速度，這可能是 PACCAR 創紀錄的中型卡車生產年。我認為部分原因是市場狀況持續強勁——相對強勁，歐洲 6 至 16 噸卡車的銷量可能達到 5 萬至 5.5 萬輛，而 6 級、7 級卡車的銷量可能達到 8 萬至 9 萬輛。Peterbilt、Kenworth 和 DAF 的產品在市場上非常受歡迎，市場佔有率也很好。正如我所說，今年可能是 PACCAR 中型卡車產量創紀錄的一年。

Your next question will come from the line of Faheem Sabeiha of Longbow Research.

你的下一個問題將來自 Longbow Research 的 Faheem Sabeiha。

I'm sorry if I missed this, but following the strong performance of your Parts business in the first half of the year, what is your outlook now for the full year 2017?

如果我錯過了相關信息，請見諒。鑑於貴公司零件業務在今年上半年的強勁表現，您對 2017 年全年有何展望？

So for the full year, we expect the global parts sales to be up in the range of 5% to 7% for the year.

因此，我們預計全年全球零件銷售額將成長 5% 至 7%。

Okay. And can you comment on used truck inventory levels in the industry? I mean are they still excessive? And if fleets do plan to replace more trucks next year versus this year, I mean, can the market absorb these additional trucks entering the market?

好的。您能否談談目前業界的二手卡車庫存水準？我的意思是，這些數量還算多嗎？如果車隊計劃明年更換的卡車數量比今年多，我的意思是，市場能否消化這些進入市場的額外卡車？

Our used truck position is, I guess, I would characterize very normal. And I would say there probably still -- in the industry, there probably still are excessive trucks from some of the competitor mix. But -- so we feel good about our ability to manage our inventory in the near and midterm.

我想，我們二手卡車的市場地位應該算是非常正常的。而且我認為，在業界，一些競爭對手的產品組合中可能仍然存在過剩的卡車。但是——所以我們對近期和中期內管理庫存的能力感到樂觀。

There are no other questions in the queue at this time. Are there any additional remarks from the company?

目前隊列中沒有其他問題。公司還有其他補充說明嗎？

Yes. I'd like to thank everyone for their participation. And thank you, operator.

是的。感謝大家的參與。謝謝接線生。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes PACCAR's earnings call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，PACCAR的財報電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。