帕卡 (PCAR) 2016 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to PACCAR's fourth-quarter 2016 earnings conference call.

早安，歡迎參加 PACCAR 2016 年第四季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Today's call is being recorded, and if anyone has an objection, they should disconnect at this time.

今天的通話正在錄音，如有異議，請立即掛斷電話。

I would now like to introduce Mr. Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. Mr. Hastings, please go ahead.

現在我謹向大家介紹 PACCAR 的投資者關係總監 Ken Hastings 先生。哈斯廷斯先生，請繼續。

Good morning. We would like to welcome those listening by phone and those on the webcast. My name is Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. Joining me this morning are Ron Armstrong, Chief Executive Officer; Bob Christensen, President and Chief Financial Officer, Michael Barkley, Senior Vice President and Controller; and Harrie Schippers, Senior Vice President.

早安.我們歡迎透過電話收聽的聽眾和透過網路直播收聽的聽眾。我是肯‧黑斯廷斯，PACCAR公司的投資人關係總監。今天早上和我一起出席的有：執行長 Ron Armstrong；總裁兼財務長 Bob Christensen；資深副總裁兼財務總監 Michael Barkley；以及資深副總裁 Harrie Schippers。

As with prior conference calls, if there are members of the media on the line, we ask that they participate in a listen-only mode. Certain information presented today will be forward-looking and involve risks and uncertainties, including general, economic, and comparative conditions that may affect expected results.

與先前的電話會議一樣，如果有媒體成員在線，我們要求他們以只聽模式參與。今天公佈的某些資訊屬於前瞻性訊息，涉及風險和不確定性，包括可能影響預期結果的一般性、經濟性和比較性條件。

I would now like to introduce, Ron Armstrong.

現在我向大家介紹羅恩·阿姆斯特朗。

Good morning. Thanks to the accomplishment of PACCAR's 23,000 outstanding employees around the world, 2016 was a very good year for the Company. PACCAR achieved revenues of $17 billion and adjusted net income of $1.355 billion, a strong after-tax return on revenues of 8%. Including the $833 million nonrecurring charge for the European Commission settlement, net income was $522 million.

早安.感謝 PACCAR 全球 23,000 名傑出員工的辛勤付出，2016 年對公司來說是碩果累累的一年。PACCAR 實現營收 170 億美元，調整後淨利 13.55 億美元，稅後營收報酬率高達 8%。包括支付給歐盟委員會的 8.33 億美元非經常性費用在內，淨收入為 5.22 億美元。

2016 was PACCAR's 78th consecutive year of earning a net income. Last year's results reflect the strongest European heavy truck market since 2008, and excellent operating performance in truck operations around the world. In addition, PACCAR Parts and PACCAR Financial Services generated good operating results.

2016年是PACCAR連續第78年淨利。去年的業績反映了自 2008 年以來歐洲重型卡車市場的最強勁表現，以及全球卡車營運的出色業績。此外，PACCAR Parts 和 PACCAR Financial Services 也取得了良好的經營績效。

PACCAR celebrated many important achievements in 2016. These included market share increases of 1 full percentage point in both the North American and European heavy duty truck markets, the introduction of the PACCAR MX-11 engine in North America, the launch of the PACCAR tandem axle in North America, and the introduction of the DAF Connect telematics system in Europe. DAF's registrations in the European above 16-tonne market were a record.

2016年，PACCAR取得了許多重要成就。其中包括北美和歐洲重型卡車市場份額均成長 1 個百分點，在北美推出 PACCAR MX-11 發動機，在北美推出 PACCAR 雙軸，以及在歐洲推出 DAF Connect 遠端資訊處理系統。DAF 在歐洲 16 噸以上卡車市場的註冊量創下紀錄。

PACCAR invested $650 million of capital in R&D in premium quality products and services, and facility enhancements to provide for future growth. PACCAR's fourth quarter sales and Financial Services revenues were $4.1 billion and quarterly net income was $289 million.

PACCAR 投資 6.5 億美元用於研發優質產品和服務，並改善設施，以滿足未來的成長需求。PACCAR 第四季銷售額和金融服務收入為 41 億美元，季度淨收入為 2.89 億美元。

PACCAR delivered 33,900 trucks during the fourth quarter, in line with expectations. The profitable contribution of all Company segments enables PACCAR to attain the highest operating margins in our industry.

PACCAR第四季交付了33900輛卡車，符合預期。公司各業務部門的獲利貢獻使 PACCAR 能夠在業界獲得最高的營業利益率。

PACCAR declared cash dividends of $1.56 per share last year, including a $0.60 per-share special dividend declared in December. PACCAR has paid a dividend every year since 1941.

PACCAR去年宣布每股派發現金股息1.56美元，其中包括12月宣布的每股0.60美元的特別股息。自 1941 年以來，PACCAR 每年都會發放股息。

During 2016, PACCAR repurchased 1.4 million shares of its stock for $71 million. PACCAR's total shareholder return was 38% in 2016, compared to 12% for the S&P 500. PACCAR's shareholder return has exceeded the S&P 500 return for the previous 1-, 5-, 15-, and 20-year time periods.

2016 年，PACCAR 以 7,100 萬美元的價格回購了 140 萬股股票。2016 年，PACCAR 的股東總回報率為 38%，而標準普爾 500 指數的股東總回報率為 12%。在過去的 1 年、5 年、15 年和 20 年期間，PACCAR 的股東回報率均超過了標準普爾 500 指數的回報率。

In the first quarter of this year, vehicle truck deliveries, vehicle deliveries, and truck and other gross margins are expected to be slightly higher than the fourth quarter. Peterbilt and Kenworth achieved an excellent market share of 28.5% in the US and Canadian heavy-duty truck market in 2016.

今年第一季度，車輛卡車交付量、車輛交付量以及卡車和其他毛利率預計將略高於第四季。2016 年，彼得比爾特和肯沃斯在美國和加拿大重型卡車市場取得了 28.5% 的優異市場份額。

Class 8 industry detail sales totaled 216,000 units last year. Into 2017, we estimate the US and Canadian Class 8 truck market will be in a range of 190,000 to 220,000 units. The market will be supported by estimated US GDP growth of 2% to 2.5%, and industrial production growth projected at 1.5%.

去年，8 級工業零件的銷售總量為 216,000 件。我們估計，到 2017 年，美國和加拿大 8 級卡車市場規模將在 19 萬至 22 萬輛之間。預計美國GDP將成長2%至2.5%，工業生產成長預計為1.5%，這將支撐市場。

DAF increased its market share to 15.5% in the European above 16-tonne truck market last year, compared to 14.6% in 2015. The EU heavy truck market was a robust 303,000 units in 2016.

去年，DAF 在歐洲 16 噸以上卡車市場的市佔率成長至 15.5%，而 2015 年為 14.6%。2016年歐盟重型卡車市場表現強勁，銷售量達30.3萬輛。

Looking at this year, we anticipate that the European above 16-tonne truck market will be another good year and be in a range of 260,000 to 290,000 vehicles. Economic growth in Europe is expected to be a stable 1.5% this year.

展望今年，我們預計歐洲16噸以上卡車市場將迎來另一個好年頭，銷售量將在26萬至29萬輛之間。今年歐洲經濟成長預計將維持穩定，為1.5%。

PACCAR Parts generated pretax profit of $544 million and revenues of $3 billion in 2016. The good results were driven by a growing population of PACCAR trucks and engines, and the many innovative products and services offered by PACCAR Parts.

2016 年，PACCAR Parts 稅前利潤 5.44 億美元，營收 30 億美元。良好的業績得益於 PACCAR 卡車和引擎數量的成長，以及 PACCAR 零件提供的眾多創新產品和服務。

For the fourth quarter, PACCAR Parts achieved revenues of $765 million, and pretax income of $138 million. Fourth-quarter pretax income was 9% higher than the fourth quarter last year on a revenue increase of 2%. We expect Parts revenues to grow 2% to 4% this year.

第四季度，PACCAR Parts 實現營收 7.65 億美元，稅前利潤 1.38 億美元。第四季稅前利潤比去年同期成長 9%，營收成長 2%。我們預計今年零件收入將成長 2% 至 4%。

PACCAR Financial Services revenues were $304 million in the fourth quarter, and pretax income was $78 million. The good results benefited from the continuing strong portfolio performance. The Financial Services portfolio includes 178,000 trucks and trailers, including 38,000 PACCAR leasing units. For the full year, PACCAR Financial Services earned pretax income of $307 million.

PACCAR金融服務公司第四季營收為3.04億美元，稅前利潤為7,800萬美元。良好的業績得益於投資組合持續強勁的表現。金融服務組合包括 178,000 輛卡車和拖車，其中包括 38,000 輛 PACCAR 租賃車輛。全年來看，PACCAR金融服務公司稅前收入為3.07億美元。

For 2017, PACCAR's research and development spending of $250 million to $280 million and capital expenditures of $375 million to $425 million will expand Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF product offerings, enhance the PACCAR powertrain, build on advanced driver assistance and connected technologies, and increase the capacity and operating efficiency of our factories and distribution centers.

2017 年，PACCAR 的研發支出為 2.5 億至 2.8 億美元，資本支出為 3.75 億至 4.25 億美元，這將擴大 Kenworth、Peterbilt 和 DAF 的產品供應，增強 PACCAR 的動力系統，發展先進的駕駛輔助和互聯技術，並提高我們工廠和配送中心的產能。

I would like to recognize Bob Christensen for over 33 years of outstanding service to PACCAR. Bob is retiring tomorrow and we wish he and his family the best. Harrie Schippers has been named Executive Vice President and CFO. I know many of you have met Harrie in the last six or seven years during his time as President of DAF Trucks and as Senior Vice President in our Corporate Group.

我謹表彰鮑勃·克里斯滕森先生為帕卡公司做出的超過 33 年的傑出貢獻。鮑伯明天就要退休了，我們祝福他和他的家人一切順利。哈里·希珀斯被任命為執行副總裁兼財務長。我知道在過去的六、七年裡，你們中的許多人都見過哈里，當時他擔任 DAF 卡車公司總裁和我們公司集團的高級副總裁。

As the Company begins its 112th year, we are in an excellent position to lead the industry with the highest quality products and services. Thank you, I'd be pleased to answer your questions.

在公司成立112週年之際，我們擁有得天獨厚的優勢，能夠以最高品質的產品和服務引領業界。謝謝，我很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Ross Gilardi, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

羅斯·吉拉迪，美國銀行美林證券。

I'm interested in a couple up front here. First, just on the North American Class 8 market, do you think orders have bottomed out at this point? And assuming that they have, if that's what you think, what quarter do you think Class 8 production bottoms out?

我對前面那幾位很有興趣。首先，就北美8級船市場而言，您認為目前的訂單量是否已經觸底？假設他們確實如此，如果你這麼認為的話，你認為 8 級卡車的產量會在哪個季度觸底？

Well, based on our view of the market, I think the inventories, backlogs and -- are pretty well in balance and that order intake will be indicative of production, et cetera, going forward. So I would say that, based on our market size estimates of 190,000 to 220,000, that we expect that production will improve as the year progresses.

嗯，根據我們對市場的看法，我認為庫存、積壓訂單等等都相當平衡，訂單量將預示著未來的生產等情況。因此，根據我們對 19 萬至 22 萬的市場規模估計，我們預計隨著時間的推移，產量將會提高。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

And just also wanted to ask you about the UK. What trends did you sequentially from Q3 to Q4 in the UK? And do you get hit on FX importing engines from the Continent, or anything in particular that you would note on FX that we should consider in our models for the UK?

另外，我還想問問你關於英國的情況。英國第三季到第四季度，您觀察到的趨勢有哪些？FX從歐洲大陸進口引擎時，您是否遇到任何問題？或者您認為FX有哪些特別之處，值得我們在英國推出的車款中考慮？

The UK is DAF's largest market. It's been a great market. In fact, DAF set an all-time market share record in the UK market last year for the combined above 6 to16 tonne and above 6 tonne of 30%. So our team has done a great job there, and we continue to see the good demand from our customers.

英國是 DAF 最大的市場。市場行情一直都很好。事實上，去年 DAF 在英國市場 6 噸至 16 噸和 6 噸以上卡車市佔率合計達到 30%，創下歷史新高。所以我們的團隊在那方面做得非常出色，我們也持續看到來自客戶的良好需求。

I think the economy there is good. There's been no indications. The movement in the pound following the Brexit vote, those movements are similar to what we've seen over the years, and while there's some headwind temporarily, that will adjust over time.

我認為那裡的經濟狀況良好。目前還沒有任何跡象表明這一點。英國脫歐公投後英鎊的走勢與我們過去幾年看到的走勢類似，雖然暫時會有一些不利因素，但隨著時間的推移，這種情況會得到調整。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Alex Potter, Piper Jaffray.

亞歷克斯·波特，派珀·傑弗裡。

Good morning, Alex.

早安，Alex。

Good morning.

早安.

So following up there more broadly on Europe, just hoping you could try to help me understand maybe a little bit what's going on in the European truck cycle. From a high level, it seems like we're still below historical peak, and all else equal, it seems like the European fleet maybe didn't go through a true up cycle. But now everyone's guidance seems to suggest that the cycles may be taking a breather before running its full course. I'm just wondering if maybe the macro issues there are overpowering what would otherwise be a continued upturn? Or if you think that the cycle actually really did run its full course? So any additional color there would be helpful.

所以，關於歐洲的更廣泛的情況，我希望您能幫我稍微了解一下歐洲卡車市場週期正在發生的事情。從宏觀角度來看，我們似乎仍低於歷史峰值，而且在其他條件相同的情況下，歐洲艦隊似乎並沒有經歷真正的上升週期。但現在各方的判斷似乎都表明，這些週期在完成整個過程之前可能會暫時放緩。我只是在想，那裡的宏觀問題是否掩蓋了原本可能持續的經濟成長？還是你認為這個週期其實真的完整地經歷了一次？所以，如果能添加一些顏色就更好了。

Yes, I think, and last year obviously was a great year for the European truck market, and DAF, in particularly, being able to improve its share 1 full percentage point in that market. If you look at the transportation statistics, the German [mount]statistics, December was another excellent month, transport activity is at record highs across Germany. So there's nothing near-term that would say that the demand will tail off. I think we're being a bit conservative in how we view the market next year. We're actually starting the year at a higher production rate for our heavy-duty vehicles than we started last year. But we're just being a bit conservative in terms of how long that stays at that level.

是的，我認為，去年對歐洲卡車市場來說顯然是碩果累累的一年，尤其是 DAF，其市佔率提高了一個百分點。如果你看一下交通運輸統計數據，德國的統計數據，12 月又是一個非常好的月份，德國各地的交通運輸活動都達到了歷史最高水準。所以短期內沒有任何跡象顯示需求會減弱。我認為我們對明年市場的預期有點保守。今年年初，我們重型車輛的生產率實際上比去年同期高。但我們對這個水準能維持多久還是比較保守的。

Okay, great. And then one other one there.

好的，太好了。然後那裡還有另一個。

You've historically talked about in Europe rolling out more Financial Services availability and expecting, at least over the medium or long term, that, that would start to impact your market share in the truck segment. Just wondering the extent to which you believe that was one of the reasons behind your share gain over the last year in Europe? Or whether you think the impact of the increased Financial Services has maybe yet to be felt, and will be felt over the next couple of years?

您過去曾多次談到在歐洲推出更多金融服務，並期望至少在中長期內，這將開始影響您在卡車領域的市場份額。我想知道您在多大程度上認為這是您過去一年在歐洲市場佔有率成長的原因之一？或者您認為金融服務業成長的影響可能尚未顯現，而將在未來幾年內顯現？

I think we're seeing that we've been open now in our Financial Services business for about two or three years in Poland, the Czech Republic, and we're seeing our share of the financing in those markets grow. And I think that also is translating into additional sales for DAF trucks. DAF has a very strong position in the Central European countries. And so I think as we look forward, we are looking at expanding some of our financing activities into the Romanian market. We have opened our sales subsidiary in Turkey. So at some point, we'll have some financing capability there.

我認為我們看到，我們在波蘭和捷克共和國的金融服務業務已經開展了大約兩三年，我們在這些市場的融資份額正在成長。我認為這也會轉化為 DAF 卡車的額外銷售。DAF在中歐國家擁有非常強大的市場地位。因此，我認為展望未來，我們將考慮把一些融資活動擴展到羅馬尼亞市場。我們在土耳其開設了銷售子公司。所以，在某個時候，我們會具備一定的融資能力。

We are also, while it's not in Europe, we are also going to be opening a bank in Brazil to support the financing of DAF trucks in Brazil. We continue to grow our footprint in our Finance business around the world, and it's an integral part of the model that supports our trucks in all of our markets.

雖然不在歐洲，但我們也將在巴西開設銀行，以支持巴西的 DAF 卡車融資。我們不斷擴大在全球金融業務的版圖，這是我們所有市場卡車營運模式中不可或缺的一部分。

Interesting. Okay, thanks very much.

有趣的。好的，非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ann Duignan, JPMorgan.

安‧杜伊尼安，摩根大通。

You guide to US and Canada for your outlook for here at this region. Could you talk a little bit about Mexico itself and what your expectations are there so that we can reconcile our NAFTA outlook with your US-Canada?

這是您了解美國和加拿大的指南，幫助您展望該地區的未來。您能否談談墨西哥本身以及您對墨西哥的期望，以便我們能夠將我們對北美自由貿易協定的看法與您對美加關係的看法相協調？

Yes, I think Mexico will have another good year, probably in the 20,000 to 25,000 truck range would be how we would see that market for next year. We continue to be the market leader in Mexico. The Kenworth brand is very well received. We've launched our 2.1 meter product, our MX engine, so they have all the latest products. And our dealers and our customers are very excited about the prospects to continue to have an excellent business in the Mexican market.

是的，我認為墨西哥明年的卡車銷量會很好，明年的銷量可能會在 2 萬到 2.5 萬輛之間。我們繼續保持墨西哥市場領先地位。Kenworth品牌非常受歡迎。我們已經推出了 2.1 米產品和 MX 發動機，所以他們擁有所有最新產品。我們的經銷商和客戶都對在墨西哥市場繼續取得優異的業務前景感到非常興奮。

So the market will be okay, but you would expect to outperform, is that what I hear you saying?

所以市場整體狀況良好，但你希望獲得超額收益，我是這個意思嗎？

Well, I think, no, I just think we'll continue to be at the -- the market leader in the 35% to 40% share of the heavy-duty market.

嗯，我認為，不，我只是認為我們將繼續保持——在重型卡車市場35%到40%的份額中處於市場領先地位。

Okay, okay, got you. Thank you for the color.

好了好了，知道了。謝謝你提供的色彩。

And then on gross margins, you had guided for full year 2017 What are you currently thinking on gross margins for 2017? It sounds like you might be a little more upbeat than you were third quarter.

關於毛利率，您之前對 2017 年全年毛利率做出了預測。您目前對 2017 年的毛利率有何看法？聽起來你比第三季的時候情緒好一些。

Yes, I'd say the range for the year would be in the 13.5% to 14.5% range, and that will tie in the with those market ranges that we've talked about.

是的，我認為今年的漲幅會在 13.5% 到 14.5% 之間，這與我們之前討論過的市場漲幅範圍相吻合。

So no change from Q3?

所以和第三季相比沒有變化？

No change, yes. No, I think that's still how we would view the year for next year.

是的，沒有變化。不，我認為我們明年仍然會這樣看待這一年。

Okay, and where do you see the biggest upside risk and the biggest downside risk? I think your volumes might come in a bit better if I'm not reading too much into what you're saying. And then, where might the biggest headwinds be that we need to take into consideration?

好的，那你認為最大的上漲風險和最大的下跌風險分別在哪裡？如果我沒過度解讀你的話，我覺得你的音量可能會更大一些。那麼，我們需要考慮的最大阻力可能是什麼呢？

Typically, it's the level of demand and pricing in a given market. So I think at the upper end of those ranges, there will be opportunities for some pricing leverage; at the lower end it's a competitive market. Always has been and always will be, so you just have to manage your pricing accordingly.

通常來說，它指的是特定市場中的需求水準和定價。所以我認為，在這些價格區間的高端，會有一些定價優勢；而在低端，則是一個競爭激烈的市場。過去一直如此，將來也一直如此，所以你只需要相應地調整你的定價策略。

Okay, I will leave it there and get back in line. Thanks.

好的，我就把東西放在那兒，回去排隊。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

David Raso, Evercore ISI.

David Raso，Evercore ISI。

Good morning, David

早安，大衛

Good morning.

早安.

The truck deliveries fourth quarter to first quarter, can you help us a bit with the geographic mix of saying up a bit sequentially?

從第四季到第一季度，卡車交付量的地理分佈如何？能否幫我們分析一下，是否有環比成長？

Yes, I think it would be up, that 1% to 2% increase in volume probably is all North America.

是的，我認為銷量會上升，這 1% 到 2% 的成長可能全部來自北美。

Okay.

好的。

That just reflects additional production days. We shut our factories down during the Christmas holiday period in North America.

這只是增加了生產天數。我們在北美聖誕節假期期間關閉了工廠。

Helpful, and on the gross margins, you're saying up a little bit from fourth quarter to first quarter. And then the comment earlier about your US-Canada production sequentially improves throughout the year. So the gross margin starting the year, make a number up, 14.1% of the fourth quarter was 13.9%. If you're already above the midpoint of the full-year guide and your US production improves as the year goes on, why would it drag down as the year goes on? Is that a price cost comment? Or something about Europe we should infer from that statement?

很有幫助，至於毛利率，您是說從第四季到第一季略有成長。然後，前面提到的關於你們美國和加拿大產量在一年中逐年提高的評論也隨之而來。所以年初的毛利率，隨便舉個例子，14.1%，第四季的毛利率為13.9%。如果你已經高於全年指引值的中點，而你的美國產量隨著時間的推移而提高，為什麼它會隨著時間的推移而拖累全年指引值的下降？這是關於價格成本的評論嗎？或者我們應該從這句話推斷出關於歐洲的某些資訊？

I think it's just predicated on the market continuing to improve as the year progresses.

我認為這完全取決於市場在今年持續好轉的前提下。

But if that was the case, if you're 14.1% or so to start the year, why would the rest of the year drag you back down to 14%, or for that matter, to the low end of the range?

但如果真是那樣的話，如果你年初的收益率在 14.1% 左右，為什麼今年剩下的時間會讓你的收益率降到 14%，或者更確切地說，降到該範圍的低端呢？

As I mentioned, the year ranges, they're 13.5% to 14.5%, so there's lots of room within that range.

正如我所提到的，年份範圍是 13.5% 到 14.5%，所以在這個範圍內有很大的空間。

Okay, I appreciate it. Thank you.

好的，謝謝。謝謝。

You bet.

當然。

Jamie Cook, Credit Suisse.

瑞士信貸的傑米庫克。

Or good afternoon, depending on where you are. Just a couple questions.

或者，根據你所在的地方，祝你下午好。幾個問題。

You mentioned to Ann you think gross margins for the year will be 13.5% to 14.5%, but can you just comment, and I think everyone's trying to get a question specifically, what you're assuming for 2017 in terms of potential for material cost headwinds? And can price offset that specifically?

你曾跟安提到你認為今年的毛利率會在 13.5% 到 14.5% 之間，但你能具體談談你的看法嗎？我想大家都很想知道，你對 2017 年材料成本可能面臨的不利因素有什麼假設？價格能否抵銷這種影響？

Yes, I think in terms of commodity costs, I think there's a bit of an upward trend in terms of pressure on commodity costs. But our purchasing and materials and operations teams work very closely with our suppliers. We have long-term agreements that smooth the effects of commodity cost movements, and we have a continual effort on cost-reduction activity. So we don't see material cost being a significant factor in the cost of our product in 2017.

是的，我認為就大宗商品成本而言，大宗商品成本面臨一定的上漲壓力，呈現出一定的上升趨勢。但是我們的採購、物料和營運團隊與供應商的合作非常密切。我們簽訂了長期協議，以緩解商品成本波動的影響，並且我們一直在努力降低成本。因此，我們認為材料成本不會成為 2017 年我們產品成本的重要因素。

But is price cost net positive? Flat? Just to be clear.

但價格成本淨值為正嗎？平坦的？澄清一下。

I would say the pricing environment in North America is probably a little more competitive in the second half of last year as we start this year. Europe I think is pretty flat. You just have the effects of the pound-euro exchange rate that have some temporary effects.

我認為，與去年下半年相比，今年年初北美地區的定價環境可能更具競爭性。我覺得歐洲地勢相當平坦。英鎊兌歐元匯率波動會帶來一些暫時性的影響。

So on a margin, a little bit of a headwind it sounds like.

所以從某種程度上來說，聽起來像是遇到了一點逆風。

Yes.

是的。

Okay, and then my second question: can you talk about what your assumptions are on the 13-liter for market share in 2017 versus 2016 and on the 11-liter. And then, last question, sorry. Obviously energy has been a headwind for the broader group. Are you seeing any signs of pickup, just based on some of where your dealers are located? Could that be a potential tailwind in 2017?

好的，那麼我的第二個問題：您能否談談您對 2017 年 13 公升車型市場份額與 2016 年相比以及 11 公升車型市場份額的假設？最後一個問題，不好意思。顯然，能源問題對整個產業來說都是一個不利因素。根據你們經銷商的地理位置來看，你們是否看到了任何復甦的跡象？這能否成為2017年的潛在利多因素？

I think the PACCAR engine, around that 50% mark is how we see the PACCAR engines MX-11 and MX-13. And I think there is a bit of optimism about the energy market and the opportunities for next year. But again, that's not a significant element of our total business.

我認為 PACCAR 發動機，大約在 50% 左右，我們看到了 PACCAR 發動機 MX-11 和 MX-13。我認為人們對能源市場以及明年的機會抱持著一些樂觀態度。但話說回來，這並不是我們整體業務的重要組成部分。

And you didn't see anything in the fourth quarter or January?

第四季或一月你都沒看到任何動靜嗎？

No.

不。

Thanks, I'll get back in queue

謝謝，我會重新排隊。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Tim Thein, Citigroup.

提姆泰恩，花旗集團。

The first question was just on the used market in North America. Maybe you could just update us in terms of what you're seeing or what you have seen with respect to pricing? And then, just in terms of overall inventory levels, there has been some chatter here recently about some of the OEM groups, or I shouldn't say some; maybe one or two OEM groups holding abnormally high inventory levels. I'm just curious about your degree of confidence and the market's ability, if in fact that's the case, to be able to absorb that level of inventory?

第一個問題是關於北美二手車市場的。您能否向我們介紹一下您目前或之前所了解的價格情況？此外，就整體庫存水準而言，最近這裡有一些關於某些 OEM 集團（或者我應該說不是某些；可能是一兩個 OEM 集團）庫存水準異常高的傳聞。我只是好奇您對市場消化如此大規模庫存的信心程度，以及如果情況確實如此，市場是否有能力消化這種規模的庫存？

Sure, from a pricing standpoint, if you look at today versus, say, a year ago, prices are down about 10% for our product. We continue to maintain a premium relative to the competition in the used truck market. A lot of the trucks, now that we're starting to see return, and we'll seeing return this year, will be our new 2.1 meter product, and that will even have a better value compared to some of our legacy products. So we're actively engaged and working with our customers on lease returns, trade packages. We just opened our newest used truck facility in Chicago in December. So we're continuing to build our capabilities to handle additional volumes of used trucks. As time goes on, we're also looking at a couple of other locations during the course of this year. So we feel very comfortable with our ability to handle the volume of trucks that we're seeing in our inventory, and will be coming back to us during the course of 2017.

當然，從價格角度來看，如果你看看現在的價格與一年前相比，我們產品的價格下降了約 10%。我們在二手卡車市場繼續保持相對於競爭對手的溢價。現在我們已經開始看到很多卡車恢復生產，今年還會繼續恢復生產，其中許多都是我們新的 2.1 公尺產品，與我們的某些舊產品相比，它的價值甚至更高。因此，我們積極與客戶合作，共同推動租賃歸還和以舊換新方案。我們於去年12月在芝加哥開設了最新的二手卡車交易中心。因此，我們正在不斷提升自身能力，以處理更多數量的二手卡車。隨著時間的推移，我們今年還會考察其他幾個地點。因此，我們對處理目前庫存中卡車數量的能力感到非常有信心，這些卡車將在 2017 年期間再次回到我們這裡。

Okay, got it.

好的，明白了。

That 10%, I know there's some quite big spreads between wholesale and retail. What would you put for the market, closer to 20% in terms of year over year, and adjusting for model years and everything? In terms of your --

我知道那10%的差價，批發價和零售價之間有相當大的價差。如果考慮到車型年份等因素，您認為市場年增幅接近 20% 會是多少？就你的——

All I know is our product and our prices

我只了解我們的產品和價格。

Fair enough.

很公平。

(Inaudible) about 10%.

（聽不清楚）約 10%。

Okay, and then just on the raw material question, can you update us? I know that you had done some work in the factory a couple of years ago in terms of some of the base of the engineering out some cost. I believe you were about two-thirds of production North America was -- had moved to that updated model. Is that where we sit today? I'm just curious if there's more room to effectively increase those production of the models that --

好的，那麼關於原料的問題，您能給我們更新一下情況嗎？我知道幾年前你在工廠裡做過一些基礎工程的工作，以降低一些成本。我相信你們當時在北美的產量大約是三分之二——已經轉移到了那個更新的型號。這就是我們今天所處的境況嗎？我只是好奇是否還有更大的空間來有效地提高這些型號的產量——

Part of our R&D budget last year, this year, will just be continued to enhance the product offerings of our 2.1 meter product line. So it's 70%, 75% of what we do today and it will continue to grow as the years progress. So the federal benefits of that will continue to be recognized.

去年我們研發預算的一部分，今年將繼續用於提升我們 2.1 公尺產品線的產品效能。所以，這占我們今天工作量的 70% 到 75%，而且隨著時間的推移，這個比例還會持續成長。因此，聯邦政府將繼續承認這些福利。

Great, thanks a lot.

太好了，非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Steven Fisher, UBS.

史蒂文費雪，瑞銀集團。

Thanks, good morning.

謝謝，早安。

I was wondering what your outlook is for Parts margins from here? And I think the theory was that the more of your own engines you have out there, the more they're aging, the margin mix of your Parts business should start to get more robust. But where are you in that process? It looks like the margins have maybe leveled off a little bit.

我想知道您對零件利潤率的未來前景有何看法？我認為，其理論是，你擁有的自有引擎越多，它們的老化程度就越高，你的零件業務的利潤率組合應該會變得更加穩健。但你目前處於這個過程的哪個階段？看起來利潤率可能已經略微趨於穩定了。

If you look back over a two- or three-year period, the margins in our Parts business have progressed nicely. And so it depends a lot any given time on the mix of parts that you sell, et cetera. We expect the percentage of engine parts to continue to grow gradually over the time, and I think that will have a positive impact on margin percentages.

回顧過去兩三年，我們零件業務的利潤率發展良好。因此，在任何特定時期，這很大程度上取決於你銷售的零件組合等等。我們預計引擎零件的佔比會隨著時間的推移而逐步成長，我認為這將對利潤率產生正面影響。

The other side of that is, we're also growing and expanding our TRP capability. We ended the year with 77 independent TRP stores owned by our dealers. Those parts carry a lower margin, but they also give us additional volume, additional contact with additional customers, and is a great initiative that has really been a key focus of our dealers to take advantage of that opportunity to grow their presence in their markets. So there's a balance of puts and takes there.

另一方面，我們也在不斷發展壯大我們的TRP能力。年底時，我們擁有 77 家由經銷商擁有的獨立 TRP 門市。這些零件的利潤率較低，但它們也為我們帶來了額外的銷量，與更多客戶的更多接觸，而且這是一個非常好的舉措，我們的經銷商一直致力於抓住這個機會，擴大他們在市場上的影響力。所以，這裡面既有出價也有收益，兩者之間保持平衡。

Do think that adds up to a higher Parts margin in 2017 versus 2016?

你認為這會導致 2017 年零件利潤率高於 2016 年嗎？

It's going to be -- the effects are going to be, I think, nominal.

我認為，其影響將是微乎其微的。

Okay, and then the Financial Services sequential profit improvement reversed a four-quarter slide. Were there any one-time benefits? How should we think about the trajectory of Financial Services' profit in 2017?

好的，金融服務業利潤環比改善，扭轉了先前連續四個季度的下滑趨勢。是否有任何一次性好處？我們該如何看待2017年金融服務業利潤的發展軌跡？

As we look at 2017, I think the portfolio balance will be comparable to where it has been. A lot of the variations in profitability over the last eight quarters had been tied to used truck movements. And so used trucks will play a significant part in how the profitability of the Financial Services segment performs in 2017.

展望 2017 年，我認為投資組合的平衡狀況將與以往相當。過去八個季度獲利能力的波動很大程度上與二手卡車的流動有關。因此，二手卡車將在 2017 年金融服務業的獲利能力方面發揮重要作用。

So the fact that it's showing improvement, do you think that's also a reflection of the more balanced used market?

所以，二手車市場呈現改善的趨勢，你認為這也反映了二手車市場更平衡嗎？

Yes, I think that's a key element of it, and when you recognize the impact of lower used truck prices on your portfolio.

是的，我認為這是關鍵因素，當你意識到二手卡車價格下跌對你投資組合的影響時，你就會明白這一點。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Jerry Revich, Goldman Sachs.

傑瑞·雷維奇，高盛集團。

Good morning, Jerry.

早安，傑瑞。

Good morning, good afternoon, everyone.

各位早安，各位下午好。

I'm wondering if you could talk about the impact of dealer inventory destock on your Parts business in 2016? I think over the past couple of quarters, you mentioned that some dealers had reduced inventories, and now that the new order picture is clearing up, I'm wondering if we could see some inventory stocking in 2017? Can you just frame the order of magnitude for us?

我想請您談談經銷商庫存減少對貴公司2016年零件業務的影響？我認為在過去的幾個季度裡，您提到一些經銷商減少了庫存，現在新訂單的情況逐漸明朗，我想知道我們是否會在 2017 年看到一些庫存增加？能大概描述一下數量級嗎？

Our dealer inventories have been in great shape really throughout 2016; and as we enter 2017, if anything, our dealers probably could use a few more trucks. And we're seeing some good orders early on in 2017 for inventory. So I think the Parts impact of that is, it's business as usual.

2016 年，我們經銷商的庫存狀況一直很好；進入 2017 年，如果有什麼變化的話，那就是我們的經銷商可能需要更多的卡車。2017年初，我們看到了一些不錯的庫存訂單。所以我認為這對零件產業的影響是，一切照舊。

Okay. I'm wondering if you could talk about how far out your lead times extend in Europe? You spoke about starting the year at higher build rates than a year ago. How much visibility do you have? What was book to bill in the fourth quarter, if you're willing to share it, for Europe specifically?

好的。我想請問一下，你們在歐洲的交貨週期最長可以持續多久？你提到今年的開局建設速度比去年同期快。你的曝光度有多高？如果您願意分享的話，請問第四季歐洲地區的訂單出貨比是多少？

I would just say our backlogs are in excellent shape all around the world, and all of our businesses and Europe is right in line with that. So we're very comfortable with our backlogs. They're really balanced in with order intake and demand in the markets right now.

我想說的是，我們全球各地的積壓訂單情況都非常理想，我們所有的業務部門以及歐洲的業務情況都與此相符。所以我們對目前的積壓工作量非常滿意。目前，它們的訂單量和市場需求非常平衡。

Okay, and on pricing in the 10-Q for last quarter, Mexico was a significant headwind. I'm wondering if you can talk about, is that continuing? Is that what you alluded to the prior Q&A as a headwind in North America? And how much of that is currency-driven?

好的，關於上個季度的定價，墨西哥市場是一個很大的不利因素。我想知道您能否談談這件事，這件事是否還在繼續？這就是你在先前的問答環節中提到的北美市場面臨的逆風嗎？其中有多少是由貨幣因素所驅動的？

One more time, Jerry? I missed the first part.

再來一次，傑瑞？我錯過了第一部分。

The pricing situation in Mexico? So you talk about a significant headwind in the third quarter 10-Q, and I'm wondering is that situation continuing into the first quarter here? Would you attribute that to the currency moves? And any other color you can give us on what's playing out in that market from a pricing standpoint?

墨西哥的定價情況如何？您在 10-Q 報告中提到第三季面臨重大不利因素，我想知道這種情況是否會延續到第一季？你認為這是匯率波動造成的嗎？從定價角度來看，您還能透露一下該市場目前的狀況嗎？

I wouldn't -- I don't know if we said significant headwind; that doesn't make sense to me. But with the depreciating peso, it's a competitive market, and so we try and -- we basically sell in US dollars. So you've got to work with customers to balance their ability to invest in new equipment and our ability to sell it at a fair price.

我不會——我不知道我們是否說過「明顯的逆風」；這對我來說沒有意義。但由於比索貶值，市場競爭激烈，所​​以我們盡量——我們基本上是用美元來銷售。所以你必須與客戶合作，平衡他們投資新設備的能力和我們以合理價格出售設備的能力。

So if the currency continues to move in the direction it's been trending over the past, call it, one to two quarters, do you have any opportunities to mitigate the currency impact on your sales into Mexico? Maybe a small assembly operation? Anything along those lines we should be thinking about?

因此，如果貨幣繼續按照過去一到兩個季度的趨勢走向發展，您是否有任何機會減輕貨幣對您在墨西哥的銷售的影響？或許可以做個小組裝工作？我們應該考慮一下這方面的哪些問題？

For Mexico, we produce all of our trucks in Mexico. So we don't have cross-border matters to deal with there. But a lot of the components come from US suppliers, as they always have.

對於墨西哥市場，我們所有的卡車都在墨西哥生產。所以，我們那裡沒有跨境事務需要處理。但許多零件仍然來自美國供應商，一如既往。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

David Leiker, Robert W Baird.

David Leiker，Robert W Baird。

Good morning, David.

早安，大衛。

This is actually Joe for David.

這其實是喬給後衛的。

Good morning, Joe.

早安，喬。

You've been giving order share in the US-Canada markets in recent quarters. Is it possible to get an update of maybe where that was during Q4?

近幾個季度，您在美加市場的訂單份額有所下降。能否提供一下第四季度期間該專案進度的最新資訊？

Yes, so for the full year, Peterbilt and Kenworth were at 32% share of the order intake. And I think for the fourth quarter just under 30% in the fourth quarter.

是的，所以從全年來看，彼得比爾特和肯沃斯的訂單份額為 32%。我認為第四季略低於 30%。

Okay. So, given share has been so high recently, and I think you've talked in the past it's a competitive market, it's tough to maintain such a magnitude of a jump that PACCAR is seeing. Are you seeing maybe greater inroads in thinking about the 2017 environment? Particularly the two European OEMs entered 2016 with very high inventory, maybe they start to come back a bit?

好的。所以，鑑於最近市場份額一直很高，而且我認為你過去也說過這是一個競爭激烈的市場，要保持 PACCAR 所看到的這種幅度的增長是很困難的。您是否認為在思考 2017 年的環境方面取得了更大的進展？尤其是那兩家歐洲汽車製造商，它們在 2016 年初庫存非常高，也許它們的庫存會開始回落？

Our guys, we have great products and I think the market has always recognized the premium value of Kenworth and Peterbilt in North America and DAF in Europe. Our teams are working hard to sell those great products. It's a premium value at a premium price and not everybody is willing to pay that. But we've grown our share over time in both markets, and our goal is to continue to increment share as we progress over the coming years.

我們擁有優秀的產品，我認為市場一直以來都認可 Kenworth 和 Peterbilt 在北美以及 DAF 在歐洲的高端價值。我們的團隊正在努力銷售這些優質產品。它物有所值，價格也較高，並非每個人都願意支付這樣的價格。但隨著時間的推移，我們在這兩個市場的份額都不斷增長，我們的目標是在未來幾年隨著業務的發展繼續擴大份額。

And then, maybe a similar conversation in Europe: I think what people might be trying to figure out is an industry forecast minus 9% in 2017. You're going to start up, it sounds like. You started to see some softening in particular countries. The UK softened at year end. Is that difference between DAF and the industry just your order intake and your backlog, and that's what's driving it?

然後，歐洲或許也會出現類似的討論：我認為人們可能想弄清楚的是，2017 年的產業預測為下降 9%。聽起來你打算創業了。在某些國家，情況開始有所緩和。英國經濟在年底有所疲軟。DAF 與行業平均值的差異只是訂單量和積壓訂單量嗎？這就是造成這種差異的原因嗎？

I think our market is such, as I mentioned previously, is probably a bit conservative based on where we're at currently. But the UK market has been pretty steady. And we have gotten good orders this year into the UK and all of our markets around the market. So I think we're in good shape as we enter 2017.

我認為，正如我之前提到的，就我們目前的狀況而言，我們的市場可能有點保守。但英國市場一直相當穩定。今年我們在英國以及週邊所有市場都獲得了不錯的訂單。所以我認為，進入2017年，我們的情況一片大好。

Okay, great, thank you.

好的，太好了，謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Nicole DeBlase from Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的妮可·德布萊斯。

Good morning.

早安.

Good morning, Nicole.

早安，妮可。

My first question is around the tone of conversations that you're having with dealers and customers in the US. We've got improvement in the PMIs, and it feels like general business sentiment is getting better. So I'm just curious if you're seeing that reflected in your conversations with dealers and customers as well?

我的第一個問題是關於您與美國經銷商和客戶進行對話的語氣。採購經理人指數有所改善，感覺整體商業信心也在改善。所以我很好奇，您在與經銷商和客戶的交流中是否也發現了這種情況？

I might let Bob address that for North America and let Harrie comment on the Europe situation.

我可能會讓鮑伯負責北美地區的情況，讓哈利負責歐洲的情況。

I think that's a correct assessment, that the tone of conversations is generally positive. We just came back from the American Truck Dealers meeting in New Orleans this past weekend. I would say dealers are looking optimistically towards the year. Quote activity seems to be normalized, and it should be a very good year for the truck industry once again in 2017.

我認為這是一個正確的評估，對話的基調總體上是積極的。我們上週末剛從新奧爾良參加完美國卡車經銷商大會回來。我認為經銷商對今年持樂觀態度。報價活動似乎已經恢復正常，2017 年對卡車產業來說應該又會是非常好的一年。

In Europe, I think I can confirm that business and industry confidence levels are at high levels. Freight, like Ron mentioned, is at good, strong levels. And as a result, our order and backlog is in good shape.

在歐洲，我可以確認商業和產業的信心水準很高。正如羅恩所提到的那樣，貨運量處於良好且強勁的水平。因此，我們的訂單和積壓訂單狀況良好。

Okay, great, thanks.

好的，太好了，謝謝。

This one's nit-picky, but I'm getting to the bottom of my question list here. Why did you guys opt to cut R&D guidance for 2017? Is there anything significant there?

這個問題有點吹毛求疵，但我快要把所有問題都問完了。你們為什麼決定削減2017年的研發投入？那裡有什麼重要的東西嗎？

Nothing significant. As we dialed in our budgets for next year and looked at our product plans, that's the amount we need to continue to support the product and build our business. So I think we're just a little bit of sharpening of the pencil as they say.

沒什麼大事。當我們制定明年的預算並審視產品計劃時，我們發現，為了繼續支持產品和發展業務，我們需要這筆資金。所以我覺得我們現在只是在稍微磨利鉛筆而已，就像他們常說的。

Got it, thanks, I'll pass it on.

明白了，謝謝，我會轉達的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Andy Casey, Wells Fargo Securities LLC.

安迪凱西，富國證券有限責任公司。

Good morning, Andy.

早安，安迪。

Good morning and afternoon, and good luck, Bob

早安/下午好，祝你好運，鮑勃。

Thank you.

謝謝。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

I'm not sure if you guys mentioned this already, but can you share any change in the order activity? I know in Europe, Harrie just talked about it being in good shape. Was that up, down, flat?

我不確定你們之前是否提到過，但能否分享一下訂單活動方面是否有任何變化？我知道在歐洲，哈利剛剛說過情況很好。那是上升、下降還是平路？

I think when you compare orders, Harrie, you've got some information in terms of the fourth quarter this year compared to the fourth quarter of the prior year?

我認為，哈里，當你比較訂單數據時，你就能獲得一些關於今年第四季與去年第四季對比的資訊？

Total order intake for DAF in the fourth quarter in the heavy segment was up 19% in the fourth quarter of 2016 compared to 2015.

2016 年第四季度，DAF 在重型卡車領域的總訂單量比 2015 年第四季成長了 19%。

Okay. And then rest of world volume, it's been steadily growing through 2016. Can you give a little color as to what regions were driving that?

好的。而世界其他地區的銷量在 2016 年也一直在穩定成長。能否簡單介紹一下哪些地區在推動這一趨勢？

We continued to increment our build in Brazil; it's a difficult market. But our team is step-by-step increasing production and increasing their market share. Mexico was a good year for Mexico. Australia, the mining sector has slowed, but we just launched our new T610 product in Australia. And their backlog is starting off very strong, and we'll be looking at some build-rate increases in Australia in the coming weeks. We are seeing some increasing demand in markets like Russia. The demand for Euro 5 vehicles is increasing and DAF is doing a good job of getting their share of that additional demand in Russia.

我們在巴西持續擴大建設規模；這是一個競爭激烈的市場。但我們的團隊正在逐步提高產量並擴大市場份額。對墨西哥來說，今年是個好年。儘管澳洲的採礦業發展放緩，但我們剛剛在澳洲推出了新的 T610 產品。他們的積壓訂單開局非常強勁，未來幾週我們將看到澳洲的建築速度有所提高。我們看到俄羅斯等市場的需求正在成長。對歐5排放標準車輛的需求正在增加，DAF在俄羅斯市場很好地滿足了這部分新增需求。

That's good news. Thank you very much.

這是個好消息。非常感謝。

Seth Weber, RBC Capital Markets.

Seth Weber，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

Good morning, Seth.

早安，塞思。

Good morning, good afternoon. I just wanted to go -- a couple quick questions.

早安，下午好。我只想趕緊走——還有幾個問題要問。

On Brazil, you mentioned that the market's obviously still tough. But your volumes are increasing and your absorption should be getting better. Is there a critical mass that we should be thinking about for that region or for your production where, I don't know if you'll comment on it, but is that facility breakeven for you or profitable for you today? Or can that flip from losing money to making money anytime soon? If you'd comment on that?

關於巴西市場，你提到市場顯然仍然很艱難。但是你的血液容量在增加，吸收能力應該會提高。對於該地區或您的生產而言，是否存在一個臨界規模需要考慮？我不知道您是否會對此發表評論，但目前該工廠對您來說是收支平衡還是盈利？或者說，這種情況有可能在短期內由虧損轉為獲利嗎？您對此有何評論？

I think it just all really depends on the economic developments in the country. And we've seen two years of contraction of over 3%. The expectations for this year is more of a flat development. But the Brazilian economy and the Brazilians have a lot going for them in terms of resources, agricultural capability. So I think we feel very comfortable long term with our investment. And as time goes on, it will provide a good return to our shareholders.

我認為這完全取決於一個國家的經濟發展狀況。我們已經經歷了兩年超過3%的經濟萎縮。今年的預期是發展較為穩定。但巴西經濟和巴西人民在資源和農業能力方面有許多優勢。所以我覺得我們對這項投資的長期前景非常有信心。隨著時間的推移，它將為我們的股東帶來良好的回報。

But at current levels, though, it's still a drag to you?

但就目前的水平而言，這仍然會讓你感到厭煩嗎？

It is, yes.

是的。

Okay. And then just a follow-up question.

好的。然後還有一個後續問題。

As production volumes get better just across the Company or North America, given the puts and takes around material costs and things like that, is there an incremental margin that you're comfortable talking to as volumes get better?

隨著公司或北美地區的產量不斷提高，考慮到材料成本等方面的波動，隨著產量的提高，您認為可以接受的利潤率增長幅度是多少？

I think if you just look at the history of incremental and decremented margins, I think that's how you should think about us going forward.

我認為，只要看看利潤率增減的歷史，就能明白我們該如何看待未來的發展。

So something like the 20% range or so?

所以大概在20%左右？

Exactly.

確切地。

Okay. Thank you very much, guys.

好的。非常感謝各位。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Mike Shlisky, Seaport Global Securities.

Mike Shlisky，Seaport Global Securities。

Good morning, guys.

各位早安。

Just following up on Seth's question about Brazil. Does opening a bank in Brazil help you ramp up the market-share penetration? It's been roughly 1% a year for a couple of years now. Does it make it any more of a positive tailwind on that, either 2017 or 2018?

我只是想就塞思關於巴西的問題做後續提問。在巴西開設銀行是否有助於提高市場佔有率滲透率？近兩年來，每年的成長率大約是 1%。這是否會對 2017 年或 2018 年的發展產生更大的正面影響？

Yes, for sure it does, and that's our whole drive behind our finance business is profitably supporting the sale of PACCAR products around the world, and Brazil is no different. And as we have that financing capability that will enhance DAF's ability to sell to more customers in the Brazilian market.

是的，當然如此，我們金融業務的全部動力就是獲利地支持 PACCAR 產品在全球的銷售，巴西也不例外。而且，我們擁有這種融資能力，這將增強 DAF 在巴西市場向更多客戶銷售產品的能力。

So if you've been getting about 1% a year, could it maybe get you to 2% a year of additional share going forward? Just help us to quantify the upside here?

所以，如果你每年能獲得大約 1% 的收益，那麼未來是否有可能讓你每年額外獲得 2% 的收益呢？請幫我們量化一下這方面的潛在效益？

I can't really comment on that. I think there's some benefit there. We've been able to get that share here. The product is performing great. We have a great team that represents the DAF brand in the market. And I am totally confident that we'll continue to grow our share at whatever pace that might be. And that the finance company, all other things being equal, will enhance that share growth.

我對此不予置評。我認為這其中是有一些好處的。我們已經成功拿下了這部分份額。產品性能優異。我們擁有一支優秀的團隊，代表 DAF 品牌在市場上發聲。我完全有信心，無論速度如何，我們都會繼續擴大市場份額。在其他條件相同的情況下，這家金融公司將促進該股的成長。

Okay, great. And then secondly, I saw on your release you have got a Toronto Parts DC opening. Is that going to open in 2017?

好的，太好了。其次，我看到你的新聞稿裡提到多倫多零件配送中心有一個職缺。它會在2017年開業嗎？

That will probably be mid-2018. We're just finalizing the purchase of the land, and there will be a permitting process. So construction will start probably midyear for this year, and then finalize midyear 2018.

那大概會在2018年中。我們正在完成土地購買的最後手續，接下來還需要辦理一些許可手續。因此，施工可能會在今年年中開始，然後在 2018 年年中完成。

Is that going to serve just Canada, or it will it also serve the Eastern US? I was curious as to what kind of operation you're placing there? Is that going to be a good margin efficiency improvement like we saw in Renton this year?

這項服務僅面向加拿大，還是也會面向美國東部？我很好奇你們在那裡開展的是哪種類型的業務？這是否會像我們今年在倫頓看到的那樣，帶來良好的利潤率提升？

I was just in our current Toronto distribution center about two weeks ago. The team does a great job in a 55,000 square-foot facility. This will triple the amount of space. We have a growing business, both our dealers and our customers, in that area. And this will allow them to grow their Parts business in that area, and better support a growing base of customer.

大約兩週前，我剛去過我們位於多倫多的配送中心。這支團隊在一個 55,000 平方英尺的場地裡做得非常出色。這將使空間增加兩倍。我們在該地區的業務，無論是經銷商還是客戶，都在不斷成長。這將使他們能夠在該地區發展零件業務，並更好地支援不斷增長的客戶群。

So you saw us build the Renton PDC this last year, which doubled the amount of square footage. We expanded our PDC in Lancaster in Pennsylvania that really supports the Northeastern part of the US. We have a distribution center in Montreal that supports customers in Quebec. So this particular PDC is primarily focused on the Ontario area in middle Canada.

所以你們都看到了我們去年建造的倫頓PDC，它的面積翻了一番。我們在賓夕法尼亞州蘭開斯特擴大了我們的 PDC，這確實為美國東北部地區提供了支持。我們在蒙特婁設有配送中心，為魁北克省的客戶提供支援。因此，這個PDC計畫主要集中在加拿大中部的安大略省地區。

Perfect, thank you very much.

太好了，非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Neil Frohnapple, Longbow Research

尼爾‧弗羅納普爾，長弓研究公司

Good morning, Neil.

早安，尼爾。

I believe a few years ago you indicated that Kenworth and Peterbilt's US and Canada Class 8 vocational truck share was above 40%. Is that still the case today? And as a follow-up, could you just talk about order activity for the segment of the market and the prospects from higher infrastructure spending potentially coming in 2018?

我相信幾年前您曾指出，肯沃斯和彼得比爾特在美國和加拿大的 8 級專用卡車市場份額超過 40%。現在情況仍然如此嗎？作為後續問題，您能否談談該細分市場的訂單活動，以及2018年基礎設施支出可能增加的前景？

I think that share position is still about right in terms of demand in that arena. I think demand has been pretty consistent. And for sure if there is substantial infrastructure investment, I think that would bode well for our ability to sell more trucks into that segment. So the Peterbilt and Kenworth products do great in that area.

我認為就該領域的需求而言，目前的份額佔比仍然比較合理。我認為需求一直都相當穩定。當然，如果基礎設施方面有大量投資，我認為這將有利於我們向該細分市場銷售更多卡車。所以彼得比爾特和肯沃斯的產品在這個領域表現出色。

Could you also talk about your industry outlook for the US and Canada medium-duty market versus 2016? Whether you expect that to be flat, up, or down?

您能否也談談您對美國和加拿大中型卡車市場的產業展望，與 2016 年相比有何變化？你認為它會平穩、上升還是下降？

I think fairly flat.

我覺得相當平坦。

Great, thanks a lot. Congratulations, Bob.

太好了，非常感謝。恭喜你，鮑伯。

Robert Wertheimer, Barclays.

Robert Wertheimer，巴克萊銀行。

Hey, good morning. Could you talk about, you mentioned Russia earlier? Where are we versus peak in Russia? And what's the outlook for the next two, three years, gradual strengthening and return? And maybe just a second comment: we have data on used truck pricing, which you alluded to in the North American market. What is European used truck pricing like? Up or down or flat?

嘿，早安。您能談談您之前提到的俄羅斯嗎？我們目前與俄羅斯的巔峰水平相比處於什麼位置？那麼未來兩三年的前景如何？逐步走強並復甦嗎？還有一點補充：我們有關於北美市場二手卡車價格的數據，您剛才也提到了這一點。歐洲二手卡車的價格如何？上漲、下跌還是保持穩定？

I'd say European used truck pricing is relatively flat. In terms of the Russian market, we're probably still on the ascent. In terms of a couple of years ago, the market was stronger, DAF sold about 3,000 trucks into Russia. Last year it was just under 1,000, and so there's good upward trend, but certainly more upside potential.

我認為歐洲二手卡車的價格相對穩定。就俄羅斯市場而言，我們可能仍處於上升期。幾年前，市場行情更好，DAF 向俄羅斯銷售了約 3000 輛卡車。去年這個數字還不到 1000，所以目前呈現良好的上升趨勢，但肯定還有更大的上漲空間。

Great, thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Sam Rathod, Macquarie.

Sam Rathod，麥考瑞集團。

Good morning, Sameer Rathod. There's been a lot of discussion by the current administration about reducing regulation, including environmental. Do you think this is a net positive or negative for intermediate truck demand? Because on one hand, you have newer standards historically helping driving replacement cycles; on the other hand, reduced regulation may spur business activity.

早上好，薩米爾·拉索德。現任政府一直在討論減少監管，包括環境監管。你認為這對中型卡車的需求來說是利好還是利空？一方面，較新的標準歷來有助於推動產品更新換代；另一方面，監管減少可能會刺激商業活動。

We're preparing for the regulations as they exist currently. It's difficult to plan based on speculation. So we're developing our products for the future following the greenhouse gas regulations that are in place. So if those change, we'll reevaluate our plans and adapt accordingly.

我們正在為現行法規做好準備。僅憑猜測很難制定計劃。因此，我們正在根據現行的溫室氣體排放法規，開發面向未來的產品。所以如果情況發生變化，我們將重新評估我們的計劃並做出相應的調整。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

Scott Group，Wolfe Research。

Thanks, good morning, guys.

謝謝，各位早安。

Good morning.

早安.

Can you share with us, sorry if I missed it, what you're expecting for Parts revenue growth this year and Financial Services margins?

能否請您分享一下（如果我錯過了相關信息，請見諒），您對今年零部件業務收入增長和金融服務利潤率的預期是多少？

So Parts revenue growth, I indicated we expect 2017 to be a 2% to 4% growth rate. Financial Services margins, I think we're probably see our spreads be relatively steady, and I think a big factor in the results will be the movement of these truck values. But our portfolio in our Finance business is performing excellently. Our team generated a share of 26% of all PACCAR products sold that they financed last year. So the Finance team continues to manage their business in a very prudent way and generate a good contribution to PACCAR's results.

因此，關於零件收入成長，我表示我們預計 2017 年的成長率為 2% 至 4%。我認為金融服務利潤率可能會相對穩定，而卡車價值的變動將是影響績效的重要因素。但我們在金融業務方面的投資組合表現非常出色。去年，我們團隊促成了 PACCAR 所有融資產品的銷售，佔總銷售額的 26%。因此，財務團隊繼續以非常謹慎的方式管理業務，並為 PACCAR 的業績做出良好貢獻。

Okay, and then just secondly, can you just talk about the percent of your US cost of goods sold that are imported into the US? And then maybe just broadly how you're thinking about any potential changes you might want to make if we get a border adjustment tax?

好的，其次，您能否談談貴公司在美國銷售的商品成本中，進口商品所佔的百分比？那麼，如果徵收邊境調節稅，您大致考慮過可能做出哪些改變呢？

That's a lot of speculation on trade matters, and so we'll address those as they come at us. We source materials from all over the world, a majority out of the US; I don't know what that percentage might be. But we source, just as all the automotive and commercial vehicle industry does. So whatever the effects might be for us would be similar for the industry.

關於貿易問題有很多猜測，我們會根據情況逐一回應。我們從世界各地採購原料，其中大部分來自美國；我不知道具體比例是多少。但是，我們和其他汽車及商用車產業一樣，也會採購原料。因此，無論對我們造成什麼影響，對整個產業的影響也類似。

So you're saying that you don't want to give a number in terms of how much of your US cost of goods are imported? But you're saying you wouldn't think it's any different than any other OEM?

所以你的意思是，你不想透露美國商品成本中有多少是進口的？但你的意思是，你認為它和其他任何OEM廠商的產品都沒有什麼不同？

I wouldn't think it's any different.

我覺得沒什麼差別。

Okay, perfect. Thank you.

好的，完美。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Joel Tiss, BMO Capital Markets.

Joel Tiss，BMO資本市場。

Last and least, I'm used to that.

最後，也是最重要的一點，我已經習慣了。

The best for last, Joel. That's how I look at it.

喬爾，最好的留在最後。我是這麼看的。

Something like that. There's been a lot of questions, so I'll make it quick.

差不多是這樣。大家問了很多問題，所以我長話短說。

But the fourth quarter, the drop-off in the gross margin and the profitability is really just from an end-of-year adjusting inventory, cleaning out whatever, getting rid of some new and used product, and feeling some of the pricing pressure that's been evident in the market to set up for 2017? Is that fair?

但第四季毛利率和獲利能力的下降，實際上只是由於年底庫存調整、清理庫存、處理一些新產品和舊產品，以及感受到市場上明顯的定價壓力，為 2017 年做準備所致？這樣公平嗎？

Yes, I think there is a bit of competitive pricing pressure that the pound-euro exchange rate had some effect. And in our fourth quarter, we typically will do some projects in our factory. So we have some maintenance projects that we do over the shutdown period. And so, just normal stuff, so nothing unusual.

是的，我認為有一定的價格競爭壓力，英鎊兌歐元匯率也產生了一定的影響。通常情況下，我們在第四季會在工廠開展一些專案。因此，我們在停工期間會進行一些維護項目。所以，都是些普通的事情，沒什麼不尋常的。

Okay. And then there was a slide from your December presentation that you -- it suggested at least that you were going to capture some Parts sales from the more technologically advanced stuff, like adaptive cruise control and lane departure warning systems. Can you give me a sense of how can you do that? Those are someone else's -- those are mostly someone else's parts. So I don't know, it's hard for me to understand that. But I'm not the brightest guy on the planet, either.

好的。然後，你十二月份的簡報中有一張幻燈片，它至少暗示你將從技術更先進的產品中獲得一些零件銷售額，例如自適應巡航控制和車道偏離警告系統。你能大概告訴我該怎麼做嗎？那些是別人的——那些大部分是別人的零件。所以我不知道，我很難理解。但我也不是世界上最聰明的人。

Joel, we sell a combination of our captive parts as well as vendor-supplied parts that we bring into our warehouse and have available for dealers. We manage that dealer inventory, and as parts for those systems are consumed at retail, then we will resupply the dealer from our warehouses. But we have access to all parts that are used on PACCAR products around the world.

Joel，我們銷售的產品既包括我們自己生產的零件，也包括我們從供應商購買並運送到倉庫供經銷商使用的零件。我們負責管理經銷商的庫存，當這些系統的零件在零售端被消耗掉時，我們會從我們的倉庫向經銷商補貨。但是我們可以獲得PACCAR產品在全球範圍內使用的所有零件。

Okay. So just maybe a little bit less marked up, just because there's more hands touching it or something like that?

好的。所以可能只是因為觸摸的人比較多之類的原因，所以痕跡稍微少一點？

Yes, I think that's fair

是的，我覺得很公平。

All right, I'm not getting back into queue. Thank you very much.

好吧，我不重新排隊了。非常感謝。

Joel, always good to talk to you.

喬爾，很高興和你聊天。

There are no other questions in the queue at this time. Are there any additional remarks from the Company?

目前隊列中沒有其他問題。公司還有其他補充說明嗎？

We would like to thank everyone for their participation, and thank you, Operator.

感謝大家的參與，也感謝操作員。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes PACCAR's earnings call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，PACCAR的財報電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。