帕卡 (PCAR) 2016 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to PACCAR's first-quarter 2016 earnings conference call. All lines will be in a listen-only mode until the question-and-answer session. Today's call is being recorded, and if anyone has any objections, they should disconnect at this time.

早上好，歡迎參加 PACCAR 2016 年第一季財報電話會議。在問答環節開始之前，所有線路都將處於唯讀模式。今天的通話正在錄音，如有任何異議，請立即掛斷電話。

I would now like to introduce Mr. Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. Mr. Hastings, please go ahead.

現在我謹向大家介紹 PACCAR 的投資者關係總監 Ken Hastings 先生。哈斯廷斯先生，請繼續。

Good morning. We would like to welcome those listening by phone and those on the webcast. My name is Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. And joining me this morning are Ron Armstrong, Chief Executive Officer; Bob Christensen, President and Chief Financial Officer; and Michael Barkley, Senior Vice President and Controller.

早安.我們歡迎透過電話收聽的聽眾和透過網路直播收聽的聽眾。我是肯‧黑斯廷斯，PACCAR公司的投資人關係總監。今天早上和我一起參加節目的有：執行長 Ron Armstrong；總裁兼財務長 Bob Christensen；以及高級副總裁兼財務總監 Michael Barkley。

As with prior conference calls, if there are members of the media on the line, we ask that they participate in a listen-only mode. Certain information presented today will be forward-looking, and involve risks and uncertainties, including general economic and competitive conditions that may affect the expected results.

與先前的電話會議一樣，如果有媒體成員在線，我們要求他們以只聽模式參與。今天公佈的某些資訊屬於前瞻性訊息，涉及風險和不確定性，包括可能影響預期結果的總體經濟和競爭狀況。

I would now like to introduce Ron Armstrong.

現在我來介紹羅恩·阿姆斯特朗。

Good morning. PACCAR reported good revenues and excellent operating income for the first quarter of 2016. PACCAR's first-quarter sales and financial services revenues were $4.3 billion, and first-quarter adjusted net income, a non-GAAP measure, was $348 million, an 8.1% after-tax return on revenues. Adjusted net income excludes a $943 million nonrecurring charge for the European Commission investigation of all European truck manufacturers. Including the nonrecurring charge, PACCAR reported a net loss of $595 million in the first quarter.

早安.PACCAR公佈了2016年第一季的良好營收和優異的營業收入。PACCAR 第一季銷售和金融服務收入為 43 億美元，第一季調整後淨收入（非 GAAP 指標）為 3.48 億美元，稅後收入回報率為 8.1%。調整後的淨收入不包括歐盟委員會對所有歐洲卡車製造商的調查所產生的 9.43 億美元的非經常性費用。在計入非經常性支出後，PACCAR 第一季淨虧損 5.95 億美元。

PACCAR achieved excellent truck parts and other gross margins of 14.9%, helped by the strong European truck market. I'm very proud of our 23,000 employees who have delivered industry-leading products and services to our customers worldwide.

由於強勁的歐洲卡車市場，PACCAR 的卡車零件及其他業務毛利率達到了 14.9%。我為我們23,000名員工感到非常自豪，他們為全球客戶提供了領先業界的產品和服務。

PACCAR delivered 35,300 trucks during the first quarter, in line with our expectations. Deliveries in Europe were over 30% higher than last year's first-quarter. Looking ahead, we expect a slight increase in deliveries in the second quarter compared to the first quarter. Second-quarter gross margins are projected to be comparable to the strong first-quarter margins, reflecting the benefits of DAF, Peterbilt, and Kenworth's new truck models; the benefits of steady build rates; good truck markets; and continued material cost savings.

PACCAR 第一季交付了 35,300 輛卡車，符合我們的預期。歐洲地區的交付量比去年第一季成長了30%以上。展望未來，我們預計第二季交付量將比第一季略有成長。第二季毛利率預計將與強勁的第一季毛利率相當，這反映了 DAF、Peterbilt 和 Kenworth 的新卡車車型帶來的益處；穩定的生產率帶來的益處；良好的卡車市場；以及持續的材料成本節約。

PACCAR's forecast for Europe's greater than 16-ton market is a range of 260,000 to 290,000 units, reflecting strong demand and a steady economic outlook. Europe's GTP growth expectations for this year are 2% in the UK, which is DAF's largest market, and 1.5% on the Continent. Freight transport activity on German highways in the first quarter was up 4% over the same period last year.

PACCAR 對歐洲 16 噸以上卡車市場的預測為 26 萬至 29 萬輛，反映出強勁的需求和穩定的經濟前景。今年歐洲的 GTP 成長預期為：英國（DAF 最大的市場）2%，歐洲大陸 1.5%。今年第一季度，德國高速公路的貨運量比去年同期成長了4%。

Year-to-date, DAF has achieved a record 16.6% share of the heavy-duty market. The economic picture in the US remains positive, with GTP forecast to grow 2.1% this year. The housing and automotive industries create a large amount of freight. Housing starts are projected to grow 11% this year to over $1.2 million, and the automotive industry is expected to deliver 17.5 million vehicles, which would be a record.

今年迄今為止，DAF 已取得重型卡車市場 16.6% 的份額，創歷史新高。美國經濟情勢依然樂觀，預計今年國內生產毛額將成長2.1%。住房和汽車產業會產生大量的貨運量。今年房屋開工量預計將成長 11%，超過 120 萬美元；汽車產業預計將交付 1,750 萬輛汽車，這將創下紀錄。

Other positive signals are that the ISM Manufacturing Index has returned to expansion, and manufacturing inventories in the economy appear to be stabilizing. We estimate US and Canadian Class 8 truck industry retail sales will be in a range of 220,000 to 250,000 units this year, the third-best in the last decade. The economy's steady growth is supportive of healthy freight levels. The ATA Tonnage Index continues at record levels.

其他正面訊號包括：ISM製造業指數已恢復擴張，經濟體中的製造業庫存似乎正在趨於穩定。我們估計今年美國和加拿大 8 級卡車行業的零售銷售將在 22 萬至 25 萬輛之間，是近十年來第三好的成績。經濟的穩定成長有利於貨運量的健康成長。ATA噸位指數持續處於歷史高點。

Peterbilt and Kenworth's combined retail sales market share of the US Canadian market is 26% year-to-date. Our share of net orders so far this year is strong at 37%, as customers appreciate the benefits of Kenworth and Peterbilt's reliable and fuel-efficient trucks and industry-leading resale values.

截至目前，Peterbilt 和 Kenworth 在美國和加拿大市場的零售銷售市佔率合計為 26%。今年迄今為止，我們的淨訂單份額強勁，達到 37%，因為客戶欣賞 Kenworth 和 Peterbilt 卡車的可靠性、燃油效率和業界領先的轉售價值。

PACCAR's parts business generated quarterly revenues of $720 million compared to $753 million in the same quarter of last year. PACCAR Parts quarterly pretax income was $135 million, an excellent return on revenue of 18.7%. These results were driven by good fleet utilization, the growing number of PACCAR trucks and engines in operation, and the many innovative products and services offered by PACCAR Parts and our dealers.

PACCAR 的零件業務季度營收為 7.2 億美元，而去年同期為 7.53 億美元。PACCAR Parts 季度稅前收入為 1.35 億美元，營收報酬率高達 18.7%。這些成果得益於良好的車隊利用率、PACCAR 卡車和引擎營運數量的不斷增長，以及 PACCAR 零件和我們的經銷商提供的眾多創新產品和服務。

PACCAR Financial Services' first-quarter pretax income was $80 million compared to $89 million a year ago. Excellent portfolio performance contributed to the good results.

PACCAR金融服務公司第一季稅前收入為8,000萬美元，去年同期為8,900萬美元。出色的投資組合表現是取得良好績效的主要原因。

PACCAR's strong balance sheet and positive cash flow have enabled the Company to invest $3.3 billion in new products and facilities in the last five years. PACCAR's capital spending of $325 million to $375 million this year is targeted at enhanced aftermarket support, manufacturing facilities, and new product development. Research and development expenses are estimated to be in a range of $240 million to $260 million.

PACCAR 強勁的資產負債表和正現金流使該公司在過去五年中投資了 33 億美元用於新產品和新設施。PACCAR 今年的資本支出為 3.25 億美元至 3.75 億美元，主要用於加強售後市場支援、製造設施和新產品開發。研發費用預計在 2.4 億美元至 2.6 億美元之間。

PACCAR continues to enhance its leadership position in the global truck market by developing the highest-quality products and services in the industry.

PACCAR 透過開發業內最高品質的產品和服務，不斷鞏固其在全球卡車市場的領先地位。

Thank you. And I'd be pleased to answer your questions. Operator?

謝謝。我很樂意回答您的問題。操作員？

Jamie Cook.

傑米庫克。

Hi, good morning and nice quarter.

您好，早安，祝您愉快。

Good morning. Thank you very much.

早安.非常感謝。

I guess a couple of questions. The margins -- the gross margins in the first quarter were higher, I think, than you expected. And then in that, relative to what The Street expected. So can you just talk through -- because the Q isn't out yet -- how much of that was material costs? How much of that was benefits from increasing production?

我想問幾個問題。我認為，第一季的毛利率比你預期的要高。然後，就此而言，與華爾街的預期相比。所以，你能簡單說一下——因為 Q 版本還沒發布——其中有多少是材料成本嗎？其中有多少是提高產量帶來的效益？

And then I also think, last quarter, you alluded to being able to achieve flat gross margins year-on-year. Can you talk about your comfort level with that today versus where we sat last quarter, with material costs potentially being a headwind in the back-half of the year?

而且我認為，上個季度您也暗示過能夠實現與去年同期持平的毛利率。您能否談談您目前對此的接受程度與上個季度相比有何不同？考慮到下半年材料成本可能成為不利因素。

Sure --

當然 -

And with the pricing environment?

那麼，在定價環境下呢？

Sure. So, first quarter, we had an excellent quarter from an execution standpoint. Our plants had steady build rates, as I mentioned, and so able to operate the plants very efficiently during the quarter. Continue to see favorable benefits from some of the material cost movement that our Purchasing and Materials teams are providing with our suppliers, working closely with them to provide good value for our customers.

當然。所以，從執行角度來看，第一季我們表現非常出色。正如我之前提到的，我們的工廠生產速度穩定，因此能夠在季度內有效運作。採購和物料團隊與供應商密切合作，為我們的客戶提供良好的價值，從而持續為供應商帶來一些物料成本的優惠。

The products are performing great in the field, so we've seen a good performance in our warranty costs during the quarter. So, all of the elements, just a good quarter of execution provided the results that we've seen. As we look forward for the full-year margins, I think we'll still be in that 14.5% to 15% range for the full-year at these build rates. So, we'll continue to operate at the kind of levels that we saw in the first quarter, I believe.

產品在實際使用上表現出色，因此本季我們的保固成本也控制得很好。所以，所有這些因素，再加上一個季度出色的執行力，就帶來了我們所看到的結果。展望全年利潤率，我認為按照目前的生產速度，全年利潤率仍將維持在 14.5% 至 15% 的範圍內。因此，我相信我們將繼續保持第一季所達到的營運水準。

And -- I'm sorry -- can you just also -- and I'll get back in queue -- comment -- I mean, last quarter, you talked about your inventory levels being at a much healthier rate relative to the -- you know, your peers. Can you just provide an update on that?

還有——對不起——您能不能也——我馬上回到隊列——評論一下——我的意思是，上個季度，您提到您的庫存水平相對於——你知道的——您的同行來說要健康得多。可否提供一下最新進展？

I think the same situation exists -- our inventories are below 60 days in the field. And so, in great position. So, what we produce will find its way to the customers' hands.

我認為情況也是如此——我們的庫存週轉天數低於 60 天。所以，我們處於非常有利的位置。所以，我們生產的產品最後都會送到顧客手中。

Okay, great. I'll get back in queue. Thank you.

好的，太好了。我重新排隊。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Alex Potter, Piper Jaffray.

亞歷克斯·波特，派珀·傑弗裡。

Maybe just a follow-up on that question, the initial question there on gross margin. Can you comment on pricing -- if you've been saying any sort of funny business with pricing, given the inventory buildup at other OEMs in the channel?

或許可以對先前關於毛利率的問題做後續提問。您能否就定價問題發表一下看法——鑑於渠道中其他 OEM 廠商的庫存積壓，您是否在定價方面有過任何不正當的舉動？

No, I'd say pricing is pretty steady in the marketplace, and that's what we experienced in the first quarter.

不，我認為市場上的價格相當穩定，我們在第一季也經歷了這種情況。

Okay. Very good. Then was wondering also if you could comment a little bit on your outlook for areas other than North America and Europe? So, Brazil, obviously, but also the rest of South America, Mexico, Australia, and any other regions that you sell a material amount of trucks into?

好的。非常好。另外，我想問您能否談談對北美和歐洲以外地區的看法？所以，顯然包括巴西，但也包括南美其他地區、墨西哥、澳大利亞，以及你銷售大量卡車的其他地區？

Yes, first talk about Australia and Mexico. I'd say the markets there are good, they're steady. And our plants there also operated very efficiently during the quarter and markets are pretty reasonable.

是的，先談談澳洲和墨西哥。我認為那裡的市場狀況良好，很穩定。而且，我們在那裡的工廠在本季也有效率運轉，市場行情也相當合理。

Brazil -- the country is challenging, but we continue to move forward with our business. Build rates are steady, and the team is doing an excellent job of continuing to establish the -- and deepen the footprint of DAF in the marketplace. And we continue to see pretty good activity with respect to the Andean countries in South America, with both the Kenworth and DAF brands.

巴西—這個國家充滿挑戰，但我們將繼續推進我們的業務。建造速度穩定，團隊在繼續建立和深化 DAF 在市場上的影響力方面做得非常出色。我們繼續看到肯沃斯和達夫品牌在南美洲安第斯國家的業務活動相當不錯。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ann Duignan, JPMorgan.

安‧杜伊尼安，摩根大通。

This is [Mike Tomlin] on for Ann. I just wanted to get a little bit of color on the Financial Services' margin, was a little bit weaker than expected. And if there was any particular reason why that may happen or may continue?

這是麥克湯姆林替安主持節目。我只是想了解一下金融服務業的利潤率情況，結果比預期的要低一些。如果存在某種特殊原因導致這種情況發生或持續下去呢？

Well, one of the things that we saw late last year, first-quarter this year, there's several of our competitors have a pretty sizable oversupply of used truck inventories, and that has dampened the overall market prices. And so, whereas last year, in our Financial Services business, we had nice used truck gains this first-quarter this year. those used truck gains didn't repeat.

嗯，我們在去年年底和今年第一季看到的一件事是，我們的幾個競爭對手的二手卡車庫存嚴重過剩，這抑制了整體市場價格。因此，儘管去年同期我們在金融服務業務方面取得了不錯的二手卡車銷售成長，但今年第一季情況卻截然不同。二手卡車的收益並沒有重現。

So, it's primarily used trucks. A little bit of impact of currency movement, but primarily the effects of used truck pricing.

所以，它主要指的是二手卡車。匯率波動會產生一定影響，但主要影響因素是二手卡車價格。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Sure.

當然。

David Leiker, Robert W. Baird.

大衛·萊克，羅伯特·W·貝爾德。

Hi, this is Joe Vruwink for David.

您好，我是喬‧弗魯溫克，我是大衛的代表。

Morning.

早晨。

I was wondering if you could give your European order growth in the quarter? And when I just looked at what individual countries are doing, it would seem like DAF in the quarter with over 30% growth is doing quite a bit better than just what the UK and Netherlands markets might be doing. So, are you gaining market share of countries that might have not been typically DAF countries in the past?

我想請問您能否提供本季歐洲訂單成長？當我單獨查看各個國家的情況時，似乎 DAF 在成長超過 30% 的季度中表現得比英國和荷蘭市場要好得多。那麼，你們是否正在從過去可能並非典型的DAF國家中獲得市場份額？

Yes, I think in most -- almost -- most countries, DAF gained share year-over-year on the quarter perspective. The Euro 6 product that DAF has had in the market now for a couple of years is performing excellently. And the fuel efficiency, the reliability of the product is the best it's ever been. And so, as time goes on, more and more customers are recognizing that.

是的，我認為在大多數國家（幾乎是大多數國家），從季度角度來看，DAF 的市佔率都比去年同期成長了。DAF推出的符合歐盟6排放標準的車款已經上市幾年了，表現非常出色。而且，該產品的燃油效率和可靠性也達到了前所未有的最佳水平。因此，隨著時間的推移，越來越多的顧客意識到了這一點。

And when you look at some of the Southern markets that have been pretty depressed for quite a few years, those are recovering. And DAF has a strong presence in Central Europe in countries like Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, and many of those, is number one or two in those markets. So, I think just the combination of all those elements coming together. And DAF achieved 16.6% share for the first quarter, which is a record level for them. And so it's really across the Continent.

而當你觀察一些南方市場時，你會發現它們已經持續低迷了好幾年，現在正在復甦。DAF 在中歐國家，如波蘭、捷克、匈牙利等，擁有強大的市場地位，在這些國家中，DAF 的市場份額位居第一或第二。所以，我認為是所有這些因素共同作用的結果。DAF 第一季市佔率達 16.6%，創歷史新高。所以，這種情況其實遍及整個大陸。

Okay. And similar conversation but here in the US, to get 37% share of incoming orders; I think your Class 8 retail is closer to 25% right now. So is that particular vocations maybe or regions of the country where you are just more positioned relative to the other OEMs? Or is it similar and that new product is driving the gains?

好的。類似的討論也發生在美國，要想獲得 37% 的訂單份額；我認為你們 8 級零售目前接近 25%。所以，是不是因為你在某些特定職業領域或某些地區比其他原始設備製造商 (OEM) 更具優勢？或者情況類似，是新產品推動了成長？

Yes, I think new product is a big thing. The Peterbilt 579/567 models and the Kenworth T680 and T880 models are very well-received by the customers. The engine -- PACCAR engine penetration increased to 46% in the quarter, so there's more and more acceptance of the PACCAR engine in the product. And so, it's just the continued appreciation of the product -- the fuel efficiency, the reliability of the current products is excellent.

是的，我認為新產品是一件大事。Peterbilt 579/567 型號和 Kenworth T680 和 T880 型號深受顧客歡迎。引擎—PACCAR 引擎的滲透率在本季度增長至 46%，因此 PACCAR 引擎在產品中的接受度越來越高。因此，這只是對產品的持續認可——目前產品的燃油效率和可靠性都非常出色。

Great. I will hop back in queue. Thank you.

偉大的。我重新排隊。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Steven Fisher, UBS.

史蒂文費雪，瑞銀集團。

You just want to follow-up on the cost savings -- I mean, I know you mentioned continuing material cost savings expected in Q2. I guess, given the rise we have seen in commodity prices, how is that baked into your expectations for the 14.5% to 15% margins for the full-year, and I guess particularly in the second-half?

您只是想跟進一下成本節約的情況——我的意思是，我知道您提到預計第二季將繼續節省材料成本。我想，鑑於大宗商品價格的上漲，您是如何將這一因素納入您對全年（尤其是下半年）14.5% 至 15% 利潤率的預期中的呢？

Well, you know, we have long-term agreements with most of our suppliers, which tend to smooth out both the upticks and downticks in material cost movements from a commodity standpoint. So, it will be pretty muted in terms of any uptick that we might see and how that might play into our cost and pricing.

你知道，我們與大多數供應商都有長期協議，這往往能從商品角度平緩材料成本的上漲和下跌。因此，就我們可能看到的任何成長以及它對我們的成本和定價的影響而言，都將相當溫和。

But do you think you can get pricing benefits on top of the higher costs, as the smoothing sort of works itself through over the course of the year?

但是，您認為在成本較高的情況下，還能獲得價格上的好處嗎？因為隨著時間的推移，成本平滑效應會逐漸顯現。

You typically do. I mean, it may not be exactly at the same time, but typically, those things find their way to the marketplace.

你通常會這麼做。我的意思是，雖然可能不會完全同時發生，但通常情況下，這些東西最終都會進入市場。

Okay. And then just on the fin-co earnings, I wanted to clarify what it was within the interest and other that drove the higher costs? I'm not sure if that was the used pricing that you were talking about earlier. And do you think the 10% year-over-year decline in profit is going to be better or worse or the same as what the full-year could be?

好的。然後，關於金融公司的收益，我想澄清一下，在利息和其他因素中，是什麼導致了更高的成本？我不確定那是不是你之前提到的二手價格。你認為利潤比去年同期下降 10% 會比全年實際情況更好、更糟還是持平？

You know, a lot will depend on how the used truck market develops in the coming quarters. And so, we'll see how that develops.

你知道，很多事情都取決於未來幾季二手卡車市場的發展。所以，我們將拭​​目以待事態發展。

In terms of the interest and other, you know, that's -- just part of that is just a larger portfolio. The asset -- the average earning assets in the first quarter this year are higher. And so that just reflects -- you know, we have higher assets and higher debt levels that go with that, and that just reflects the higher cost that go with it.

至於利息和其他方面，你知道，那隻是——其中一部分只是更大的投資組合。今年第一季平均獲利資產較高。所以這就反映出——你知道，我們擁有更高的資產和更高的債務水平，這也反映了隨之而來的更高成本。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Jerry Revich, Goldman Sachs.

傑瑞·雷維奇，高盛集團。

Ron, I'm wondering if you can talk about the pricing environment in Europe specifically? You folks have spoken about once the market gets good enough, you might be at a point where you get to make a margin on the new emissions components. Are we at that point yet? Can you just give us an update within the context of the steady pricing environment that you outlined across the business?

羅恩，我想請你具體談談歐洲的定價環境？你們之前說過，一旦市場行情好轉，你們或許就能從新的排放零件中獲利了。我們到了那個階段了嗎？能否在您先前概述的整個業務穩定定價環境下，請為我們介紹最新情況？

I wish that were the case, Jerry, but it's -- pricing is pretty steady in terms of this year versus what we saw last year during the course of the year. The market is good, so pricing environment has been -- as I said, pretty steady without much up or down movement.

傑瑞，我希望情況真是如此，但事實是——今年的價格與去年同期相比相當穩定。市場行情良好，因此價格環境一直——正如我所說——相當穩定，沒有太大的上漲或下跌。

Okay. And then can you talk about what you're seeing out of your customers in terms of parts consumption in North America? It looks like your North America parts business may have been down more than the overall parts business. Is that an issue of timing? Or what drove that? I think we're hearing from construction industries that it was a pretty seasonally positive quarter for business. And I'm wondering if you can just fill in the gaps on what you're seeing out of your customers there?

好的。那麼，您能否談談您在北美地區客戶零件消耗方面觀察到的情況？看來貴公司北美零件業務的下滑幅度可能大於整體零件業務的下滑幅度。這是時機問題嗎？或者說，是什麼原因導致了這種情況？我認為我們從建築業了解到，本季業務表現相當不錯，符合季節性規律。我想請您補充一下，您從客戶那裡了解到的情況有哪些不足之處？

Yes. So, from a customer standpoint, the actual retail sales at the dealer level were up a bit during the quarter. What we saw was the dealers rebalancing their inventories to sort of adjust to individual local market conditions. So we expect that we'll see, in the second quarter and beyond, an improvement in parts sales for the rest of the year.

是的。因此，從客戶的角度來看，本季經銷商層級的實際零售額略有上升。我們看到的是經銷商正在重新調整庫存，以適應各個地區的市場狀況。因此我們預計，從第二季開始，零件銷售額將在今年剩餘時間內有所改善。

Okay. And lastly, you've done a nice job bringing down warranty costs on Euro 6 engines. I'm wondering if you can just update us on how that's tracking? Did the warranty accruals continue to decline sequentially, based on the experience level? Or are we at the run rate, based on actual warranty instances that you're seeing?

好的。最後，你們在降低歐6引擎的保固成本方面做得很好。我想問一下能否告知我們進展？根據經驗水平，保固累計額是否持續逐週下降？或者，我們是否達到了根據您所看到的實際保固案例計算出的運行率？

Yes, the DAF trucks, the PACCAR engines, the Kenworth/Peterbilt trucks around the world are performing very well; best reliability, I think, in the industry. And we think we've seen that reflected in our warranty provisions quarter-over-quarter. So that the first quarter was at a good run rate that we think is appropriate for our product.

是的，DAF卡車、PACCAR引擎、肯沃斯/彼得比爾特卡車在世界各地表現都非常出色；我認為，它們的可靠性在業界首屈一指。我們認為，這一點已經體現在我們每季的保固條款中。因此，第一季的運作速度良好，我們認為這符合我們產品的預期。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Ross Gilardi, Bank of America.

（操作員說明）羅斯·吉拉迪，美國銀行。

I was wondering if you could just talk a little bit about your internal engine effort? Obviously, PACCAR has been targeting at sort of a 50% make versus buy in North America for a long time. And you've been inching closer to that target. I'm just wondering, any reason why you would stop at 50%? And if you were to go beyond 50%, would you need to go all the way to 100% to justify the capital investment? Or could we see that target just slowly be dragged higher?

我想請您簡單談談您內部的研發工作？顯然，PACCAR長期以來一直致力於在北美實現50%的自製與外購比例。你一直在一步步接近那個目標。我只是好奇，為什麼要停在50%？如果投資比例超過 50%，是否需要達到 100% 才能證明資本投資的合理性？或者我們會看到目標值慢慢拉高嗎？

You know, the wonderful thing about our facility in Columbus, Mississippi -- we built it at 400,000 square feet. We're continuing to add additional equipment into the facility to achieve what's possible within that footprint, but we have a lot of -- we have 400 acres of land and it's expandable, just as we had planned it to be. So we're earning a strong return off of the investment that we have made, and we'll continue to make additional investments as the engine penetration grows in North America.

你知道，我們在密西西比州哥倫布市的工廠最棒的地方在於──我們把它建在了40萬平方英尺的地方。我們正在不斷向該設施添加更多設備，以在現有佔地面積內實現盡可能多的目標，但我們有很多——我們有 400 英畝的土地，而且它還可以擴展，正如我們計劃的那樣。因此，我們從已進行的投資中獲得了豐厚的回報，隨著引擎在北美滲透率的提高，我們將繼續進行更多投資。

The 50% is sort of a short mid-term target. The longer-term target, as we look at our customers and the applications they have, we feel the engine can meet up to 80%, 85% of customer need. So, that's sort of the target at this point longer-term. So we'll continue to invest and increment capacity as we need it. And we will be making some of those investments in the next couple of years to support the growing acceptance of the engines; doing great.

50% 是一個中短期目標。從長遠來看，當我們審視我們的客戶及其應用程式時，我們認為引擎可以滿足 80% 到 85% 的客戶需求。所以，這算是我們目前的長期目標。因此，我們將繼續投資，並根據需要增加產能。未來幾年，我們將進行一些投資，以支持這些引擎日益增長的市場接受度；進展非常順利。

Okay. Thanks. And then what about your vertical integration effort in other product categories? And I think at your -- one of your more recent Investor Days, you had talked about things like axles, also that you can make internally. And are you doing any more of that? And is that a driver of success in the gross margin?

好的。謝謝。那麼，你們在其他產品類別的垂直整合工作進展如何？而且我認為，在您最近的一次投資者日活動中，您也談到了車軸之類的東西，這些東西也可以內部生產。你還會繼續做這類事情嗎？這是否是毛利率成功的驅動因素？

Well, DAF has been making axles for the 20 years that PACCAR has owned them. And we -- that's what you get when you order a DAF truck -- our PACCAR axles. We're working -- in North America, we're looking at opportunities to take advantage of DAF's actual technology and capabilities. We have great working relationships with Dana and Meritor, who are providing really customized applications that integrate well with the rest of the PACCAR powertrain, to be able to offer our customers the unique capability of the fully integrated powertrain to operate their vehicles.

嗯，DAF 在 PACCAR 擁有它的 20 年裡一直在生產車軸。這就是您訂購 DAF 卡車時會得到的——我們的 PACCAR 車軸。我們正在努力——在北美，我們正在尋找機會來利用 DAF 的實際技術和能力。我們與 Dana 和 Meritor 建立了良好的合作關係，他們提供了真正客製化的應用，這些應用與 PACCAR 動力總成的其他部分完美集成，從而能夠為我們的客戶提供完全集成的動力總成的獨特功能，以驅動他們的車輛。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Seth Weber, RBC Capital Markets.

Seth Weber，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

Appreciate the color on the Europe market. We've been hearing some discussion about some rising dealer inventories in Europe. I'm wondering if you've seen anything there with -- just across the industry or with DAF specifically?

欣賞歐洲市場上的色彩。我們最近聽到一些關於歐洲部分經銷商庫存上升的討論。我想知道您是否看到任何相關情況——是整個行業的情況，還是專門針對 DAF 的情況？

You know, we don't have any visibility to the industry as a whole, but I will say DAF's inventory is in great shape. Very similar to what we see with Peterbilt and Kenworth in North America, in the 45 to 60-day range, which is really (technical difficulty) [optimal] to meet customer demand and not have excess inventories on the ground.

你知道，我們對整個產業的情況並不了解，但我可以說，DAF 的庫存狀況非常好。這與我們在北美看到的 Peterbilt 和 Kenworth 的情況非常相似，交貨週期在 45 到 60 天之間，這確實是（技術難度）[最佳]，可以滿足客戶需求，避免庫存積壓。

Okay. Thank you. And then if I could just go back to the parts business for a minute. I know in prior quarters, FX has been a headwind there. I mean, are you still expecting -- there was a headwind here in the quarter -- and are you still expecting kind of a low to mid-single-digit growth for the parts business this year? And I guess just separately, could you give us what FX impact was for the Company for revenue and operating income altogether?

好的。謝謝。然後，如果我能回去做一會兒零件生意就好了。我知道在前幾個季度，外匯市場一直是個不利因素。我的意思是，鑑於本季度遇到的不利因素，您是否仍然預期今年零件業務能夠實現個位數低至中等的成長？另外，能否請您分別介紹外匯波動對公司營收及營業利潤的影響？

So for the parts business, we are getting pretty close now where foreign exchange rates have been pretty comparable, with a little bit of effect on revenue -- I think it was $10 million in the parts business in the first quarter.

所以就零件業務而言，我們現在的情況已經非常接近了，外匯匯率也相當接近，對收入略有影響——我認為第一季零件業務的收入為 1000 萬美元。

And I'll let Michael put a comment on the overall effects for the Company.

接下來，我將請麥可就此事對公司整體的影響發表一些評論。

For the truck parts and other net sales and revenue, the impact was $68 million. And the impact on Financial Services revenues was $9 million, and the impact on profitability was negligible.

卡車零件及其他淨銷售額和收入受到影響，損失達 6,800 萬美元。對金融服務收入的影響為 900 萬美元，對獲利能力的影響微乎其微。

Okay. And then just -- sorry, on the parts outlook for the year, is sort of low-to-mid-single digits still the right way to think about it? Or how you're thinking about it?

好的。然後——不好意思，關於今年的零件市場前景，用個位數低到中段的成長率來預測是否仍然是正確的方法？還是你怎麼想的？

Yes, I think we'll see a return to growth as we progress through the year. I think parts sales globally could be up towards the 3% range for the year.

是的，我認為隨著時間的推移，我們會看到成長恢復正常。我認為今年全球零件銷售額可能會成長3%左右。

Terrific. Thank you very much.

了不起。非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Joe O'Dea, Vertical Research.

Joe O'Dea，Vertical Research。

Just a question relative to the order share. And we don't typically see those kinds of swings and translate into retail sales. But given that kind of order of magnitude, do you think that that creates any more volatility over the course of the year? Or, based on the timing of when those orders are scheduled to ship, would you not see any kind of disruption?

關於訂單份額，我有個問題。我們通常不會看到這種波動，也不會將其轉化為零售額的下降。但考慮到這種數量級的波動，你認為這會在一年內造成更大的波動嗎？或者，根據這些訂單的預計出貨時間來看，您認為不會有任何中斷嗎？

No, I don't think the orders create any additional volatility. They just bolster the backlog. And I think because of our -- we build the truck when we have an order; we don't build for inventory. We prudently manage our build schedule. And so the fact that we had 37% of the orders just reflects the -- we've got customers really appreciating the vehicle and ordering for what they need for the coming couple of months.

不，我不認為這些訂單會造成額外的市場波動。它們只會加劇積壓工作。我認為是因為我們——我們是在接到訂單後才生產卡車；我們不生產庫存卡車。我們謹慎地管理著我們的建設進​​度。因此，我們獲得了 37% 的訂單，這恰恰反映出——我們的客戶非常欣賞這款車，並訂購了他們未來幾個月所需的車輛。

Okay. And do you have kind of a targeted share, where you think your share will be in US and Canada for 2016 -- upon retail?

好的。那麼，您是否有一個目標份額，您認為您在 2016 年美國和加拿大的零售份額會是多少？

Well, I think -- yes. So, last year, we were 27.5%. So I think we'll be slightly above that for the full-year in terms of retail sales.

嗯，我想——是的。所以，去年我們的佔比是 27.5%。所以我認為，就全年零售額而言，我們會略高於這個數字。

Great. Thanks very much.

偉大的。非常感謝。

Sure.

當然。

Adam Uhlman, Cleveland Research.

Adam Uhlman，克里夫蘭研究公司。

I guess first a clarification -- I might have missed it, but did you mention the magnitude of used truck pricing that you're seeing right now? And if not, could you tell us kind of what that trend has been looking like recently? And when you'd expect to see a stabilization in used truck prices?

我想先澄清一下——我可能錯過了，但您有沒有提到您目前看到的二手卡車價格的巨大波動？如果沒有，您能否告訴我們最近這種趨勢的大致情況？那麼，你預計二手卡車價格何時會趨於穩定？

I think we're starting to see a stabilization. During the quarter, from the, say, fourth-quarter into the first-quarter, was probably a 5% to 10% impact for the market as a whole. The good news is that the Peterbilt, Kenworth, and DAF products continue to maintain their premium, relative to the competition, in the 10% to 20% range.

我認為我們開始看到局勢趨於穩定。在這一季度，例如從第四季度到第一季度，對整個市場的影響可能達到了 5% 到 10%。好消息是，彼得比爾特、肯沃斯和達夫的產品相對於競爭對手而言，繼續保持10%到20%的溢價。

Okay. Got you. And then back to the share of orders that you got in North America -- congrats on pulling those in. Could you tell us what the first quarter of last year's share was or what the year-over-year order growth was for you?

好的。抓到你了。然後回到你在北美獲得的訂單份額——恭喜你拿下這些訂單。能否告知我們去年第一季的市佔率是多少，或是您的訂單年增率是多少？

I don't think we have that number readily at hand, so we'll have to come back to you on that.

我們目前沒有這個數字，所以我們需要稍後再回覆您。

Okay. And then the record share at DAF -- you had mentioned that there was a good breadth of strength in that share across the Continent.

好的。然後是 DAF 創紀錄的份額——您曾提到，該份額在整個非洲大陸都表現出了強勁的增長勢頭。

Yes.

是的。

I'm wondering if you believe that this -- directionally, that this level of retail share can persist for the rest of the year?

我想知道您是否認為，從趨勢上看，這種零售份額水準能夠持續到今年年底？

You know DAF in 2012, 2013, was in the [16% -- 15%] -- 15.5%, 16% range. So yes, I believe this is probably more consistent. We had some interruptions, if you will, with the Euro 5/Euro 6 transition. And I think this is more indicative of where DAF is positioned in the market.

你知道 2012 年、2013 年的 DAF 值在 [16% -- 15%] -- 15.5%、16% 的範圍內。所以，是的，我認為這可能更一致。在歐元 5/歐元 6 過渡期間，我們遇到了一些中斷。我認為這更能體現 DAF 在市場中的定位。

Got you. Thank you very much.

抓到你了。非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Mike Shlisky, Seaport Global.

Mike Shlisky，Seaport Global。

So in your release, you actually mentioned you were going to be expanding your Denton facility in the near future -- to expand the capacity there. I guess I was kind of wondering -- this past year was a very, very strong year for Class 8 in 2015, and I don't think you had too many problems delivering to your customers. So, I guess what's being expanded at Denton that's so important? And when can we start seeing some of the margin benefits on that expansion?

所以，在您的新聞稿中，您實際上提到您將在不久的將來擴建位於丹頓的工廠——以擴大那裡的產能。我當時有點好奇——2015 年對 Class 8 來說是非常非常強勁的一年，而且我認為你們在向客戶交付貨物方面並沒有遇到太多問題。所以，我想知道丹頓正在擴建的是什麼，它到底有多重要？那麼，我們什麼時候才能開始看到擴張帶來的利潤成長呢？

Well, you'll see the margin benefits whenever we get it finished and we're utilizing the facility, but as you go through the cycles, you identify opportunities to continue to make your facilities and your processes more capable. And this is just sort of the continuing effort that we go through, and have gone through for 110 years of the Company, of continuing to invest during all phases of the business cycle, to be able -- to be prepared, wanting to get the efficiencies but also to get that incremental capacity.

嗯，一旦我們完成並開始使用該設施，你就會看到利潤成長的好處，但隨著週期的推進，你會發現機會，可以不斷提高你的設施和流程的能力。這正是我們公司110年來一直在努力的方向，在商業週期的各個階段持續投資，以便做好準備，既要提高效率，也要增加產能。

The penetration of the 2.1 meter products, both at Peterbilt and Kenworth, has been outstanding. And we continue to invest in the robotic capacity in those facilities. And this is just part of that overall process that we go through throughout our history of making good prudent investments that prepare us not only for today but also for tomorrow.

2.1米產品在彼得比爾特和肯沃斯的市場滲透率都非常出色。我們將繼續投資提升這些工廠的機器人技術能力。這只是我們一直以來所經歷的謹慎投資過程的一部分，這種投資不僅讓我們為今天做好準備，也讓我們為明天做好準備。

So, it's more efficiency gains, and it's not intended to substantially increase the number of trucks you can make in a year? Just -- you just make them faster or better?

所以，它更多的是提高效率，而不是大幅增加一年內可以生產的卡車數量？你只是讓它們更快或更好嗎？

It's a combination of both, yes.

是的，兩者兼具。

Okay. Okay. And then just one quick mild question for you as well. Could you give us the diluted share count adjusted, if you had not posted a loss for the year -- for the quarter?

好的。好的。最後，我還想問你一個比較簡單的問題。能否提供一下如果本季沒有出現虧損，調整後的稀釋後股份數量？

It would have been about -- it would have been [351.9 million].

大約是－大約是[3.519億]。

Okay. Perfect. Thanks, guys. Appreciate it.

好的。完美的。謝謝各位。謝謝。

You bet you.

當然。

Robert Wertheimer, Barclays.

Robert Wertheimer，巴克萊銀行。

Thanks for the commentary -- great results. Are you able to talk just a little bit about how you're approaching the 11-liter launch? And any numbers you are willing to update on the penetration in Europe and the US?

感謝您的評論——效果很棒。您能否簡單談談您是如何計劃推出11升排氣量的車型的？您能否提供一些關於歐洲和美國市場滲透率的最新數據？

Yes. So the MX-11, as we -- as you know, we've launched that in Europe in the fourth quarter of 2013. It's been very well-received in Europe by both our truck customers, as well as we sell several-thousand engines a year to bus and coach customers. And that has become the engine of choice of those bus and coach customers for their applications.

是的。所以，MX-11，正如您所知，我們在 2013 年第四季度在歐洲推出了它。這款產品在歐洲受到了卡車客戶的熱烈歡迎，我們每年也向巴士和長途客車客戶銷售數千台引擎。因此，它已成為公共汽車和長途客車客戶在其應用中的首選引擎。

So, two years of experience in Europe, and launched it in January this year in North America. And the launches has gone very well. I was recently on a trip visiting with some of our customers, and there's a lot of interest by a lot of different types of customers, particularly those that are sensitive to weight, because it's 400 pounds lighter than our other offering. And so it's a very attractive option.

因此，在歐洲累積了兩年經驗後，於今年1月在北美推出了該產品。發射工作進展非常順利。我最近去拜訪了一些客戶，許多不同類型的客戶都對這款產品很感興趣，尤其是那些對重量比較敏感的客戶，因為它比我們其他的產品輕了 400 磅。因此，這是一個非常有吸引力的選擇。

And so the launch has gone good. The customers who have put that into their product, early days, it's performing as expected. And we will continue to ramp that up as we progress through the course of this year.

所以，這次發表會很成功。那些在產品早期階段就投入這項技術的客戶，其產品表現符合預期。隨著時間的推移，我們將繼續加大力度。

That's perfect. And do you launch it in many models at once? Or is it just sort of a stage thing where we can expect to take a couple of years to be fully out there in the fleet?

那很完美。你們會同時推出多種型號嗎？或者這只是一個階段性的過程，我們需要幾年時間才能完全投入艦隊？

No. It will be a staged -- I mean, we are purposefully ramping up both the plant, so that they get more comfortable with the assembly process. But early days is very promising.

不。這將是一個分階段的過程——我的意思是，我們正在有意識地逐步提高工廠的產能，以便他們可以更熟悉組裝流程。但目前來看，前景非常光明。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Okay. There are no other questions in the queue at this time. Are there any additional remarks from the Company?

（操作說明）好的。目前隊列中沒有其他問題。公司還有其他補充說明嗎？

We'd like to thank everyone for their excellent questions, and thank you, operator.

感謝大家提出的精彩問題，也謝謝接線生。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes PACCAR's earnings call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，PACCAR的財報電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。