帕卡 (PCAR) 2016 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to PACCAR's second quarter 2016 earnings conference call. All lines will be in a listen-only mode until the question-and-answer session. Today's call is being recorded.

早安，歡迎參加 PACCAR 2016 年第二季財報電話會議。在問答環節開始之前，所有線路都將處於唯讀模式。今天的通話將會被錄音。

If anyone has any objections, they should disconnect at this time. I would now like to introduce Mr. Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. Mr. Hastings, please go ahead.

如有任何異議，請立即斷開連接。現在我謹向大家介紹 PACCAR 的投資者關係總監 Ken Hastings 先生。哈斯廷斯先生，請繼續。

Good morning. We would like to welcome those listening by phone and those on the Webcast. My name is Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations.

早安.我們歡迎透過電話收聽和透過網路直播收聽的朋友們。我是肯‧黑斯廷斯，PACCAR公司的投資人關係總監。

And joining me this morning are Ron Armstrong, Chief Executive Officer; Bob Christianson, President and Chief Financial Officer; and Michael Barkley, Senior Vice President and Controller. As with prior conference calls, if there are members of the media on the line we ask that they participate in a listen-only mode.

今天早上和我一起接受採訪的有：執行長 Ron Armstrong；總裁兼財務長 Bob Christianson；以及高級副總裁兼財務總監 Michael Barkley。與先前的電話會議一樣，如果有媒體成員在線，我們要求他們以只聽模式參與。

Certain information presented today will be forward-looking and involve risks and uncertainties including general economic and competitive conditions that may affect expected results.

今天公佈的某些資訊屬於前瞻性訊息，涉及風險和不確定性，包括可能影響預期結果的總體經濟和競爭狀況。

I would now like to introduce Ron Armstrong.

現在我來介紹羅恩·阿姆斯特朗。

Good morning. PACCAR reported good revenues and excellent operating income for the second quarter of 2016.

早安.PACCAR公佈了2016年第二季良好的營收和優異的營業收入。

PACCAR's second quarter sales and Financial Services revenues were $4.4 billion, and second quarter adjusted net income, a non-GAAP measure, was $372 million, an 8.4% after tax return on revenues.

PACCAR 第二季銷售額和金融服務收入為 44 億美元，第二季調整後淨收入（非 GAAP 指標）為 3.72 億美元，稅後收入回報率為 8.4%。

Adjusted net income excludes a favorable $109 million adjustment to the reserve established in the first quarter this year, reflecting the settlement of the European Commission investigation. Including the reserve adjustment, PACCAR reported net income of $481 million in the second quarter. PACCAR achieved excellent truck, parts, and other gross margins of 15.2%, driven by Kenworth, Peterbilt, and DAF premium products, DAF's strong 16% market share, a robust European truck market, and rigorous cost control.

調整後的淨收入不包括今年第一季設立的準備金的 1.09 億美元有利調整，這反映了歐盟委員會調查的和解。計入準備金調整後，PACCAR 第二季淨利為 4.81 億美元。PACCAR 的卡車、零件及其他業務毛利率高達 15.2%，這得益於 Kenworth、Peterbilt 和 DAF 的高端產品、DAF 16% 的強勁市場份額、強勁的歐洲卡車市場以及嚴格的成本控制。

I'm very proud of our 23,000 employees who have delivered industry-leading products and services to our customers worldwide. PACCAR delivered 36,700 trucks during the second quarter, in line with our expectations. Deliveries in Europe were 17% higher than last year's second quarter.

我為我們23,000名員工感到非常自豪，他們為全球客戶提供了領先業界的產品和服務。PACCAR在第二季交付了36700輛卡車，符合我們的預期。歐洲地區的交付量比去年第二季成長了17%。

In the third quarter, PACCAR deliveries will be slightly lower than the second quarter, due to the normal summer shutdown at DAF. Third quarter gross margins are projected to remain strong but down slightly from the second quarter margins, due to the lower production in Europe.

由於 DAF 工廠夏季正常停工，PACCAR 第三季的交付量將略低於第二季。由於歐洲產量下降，預計第三季毛利率將保持強勁，但會比第二季略有下降。

PACCAR's industry-leading operating margins reflect the benefits of DAF, Peterbilt and Kenworth's new truck models, record plant operating efficiency, good truck markets, and continued material cost savings. We've raised our forecast for Europe's greater than 16-ton market to a range of 280,000 to 300,000 units, reflecting strong demand and the steady economic outlook. The Eurozone's GDP growth expectations for this year are 1.5%.

PACCAR 行業領先的營業利潤率反映了 DAF、Peterbilt 和 Kenworth 的新卡車車型、創紀錄的工廠運營效率、良好的卡車市場以及持續的材料成本節約帶來的好處。我們已將歐洲16噸以上卡車市場的預測值上調至28萬至30萬輛，這反映了強勁的需求和穩定的經濟前景。歐元區今年的GDP成長預期為1.5%。

Freight transport activity on German highways in the first half of this year was up 3.4% over the same period last year. Since the vote in the UK to exit the European Union, DAF's truck orders, parts and service sales and finance business continue at strong levels, comparable to the period prior to the vote. The economic picture in the US is positive, with GDP forecast to grow 1.9% this year.

今年上半年德國高速公路貨運量比去年同期成長了3.4%。自從英國投票決定退出歐盟以來，DAF 的卡車訂單、零件和服務銷售以及金融業務繼續保持強勁水平，與投票前的時期相當。美國經濟情勢樂觀，預計今年GDP將成長1.9%。

The housing and automotive industries create a large amount of freight. Housing starts are projected to grow 11% this year to 1.2 million and the automotive industry is expected to deliver 17.2 million vehicles, similar to last year's record sales. The ISM Manufacturing Index has been over 50, indicating expansion for the last four months.

住房和汽車產業會產生大量的貨運量。今年房屋開工量預計將成長 11%，達到 120 萬套；汽車業預計將交付 1,720 萬輛汽車，與去年的創紀錄銷量相近。ISM製造業指數連續四個月超過50，顯示製造業正在擴張。

Consumer spending and disposable income are outgrowing the overall economy, which is supportive of freight in the truck industry. We estimate US and Canadian Class 8 truck industry retail sales will be in a range of 220,000 to 240,000 units this year, which is the third best in the last decade.

消費者支出和可支配收入的成長速度超過了整體經濟成長速度，這對卡車運輸業的貨運業務構成了支持。我們估計今年美國和加拿大 8 級卡車行業的零售銷售將在 22 萬至 24 萬輛之間，這是近十年來第三好的成績。

Peterbilt and Kenworth's combined retail sales market share of the US and Canadian market was 28% in the second quarter. Our share of net orders so far this year is strong at 34%, as customers benefit from Kenworth and Peterbilt's reliable, fuel efficient trucks and industry leading resale values.

第二季度，彼得比爾特和肯沃斯在美國和加拿大市場的零售銷售市佔率合計為 28%。今年迄今為止，我們的淨訂單份額強勁，達到 34%，因為客戶受益於 Kenworth 和 Peterbilt 可靠、節能的卡車以及業界領先的轉售價值。

PACCAR Parts business generated quarterly revenues of $756 million, a 5% increase compared to the first quarter. PACCAR Parts' quarterly pretax income was $133 million, with a return on revenues of 17.6%.

PACCAR零件業務季度營收為7.56億美元，比第一季成長5%。PACCAR Parts 的季度稅前收入為 1.33 億美元，收入回報率為 17.6%。

These results were driven by good fleet utilization, the growing number of PACCAR trucks and engines in operation and the many innovative products and services offered by PACCAR Parts and our dealers. Second half parts sales are expected to improve from first half levels.

這些成果得益於良好的車隊利用率、PACCAR 卡車和引擎營運數量的不斷增長，以及 PACCAR 零件和我們的經銷商提供的眾多創新產品和服務。預計下半年零件銷售額將比上半年水準有所改善。

PACCAR Financial Services' second quarter pretax income was $77 million. Excellent portfolio performance contributed to the good results. During the quarter PACCAR financial began providing retail financing in Romania, its 23rd country of operation. PACCAR Financial also acquired land in the Chicago area to construct a new used truck center and expand its sales of Kenworth and Peterbilt premium used trucks.

PACCAR金融服務公司第二季稅前收入為7,700萬美元。出色的投資組合表現是取得良好績效的主要原因。本季度，PACCAR 金融開始在羅馬尼亞提供零售融資服務，羅馬尼亞是其營運的第 23 個國家。PACCAR Financial 也在芝加哥地區購買了土地，用於建造新的二手卡車中心，並擴大其 Kenworth 和 Peterbilt 高端二手卡車的銷售。

PACCAR's strong balance sheet and cash flows have enabled the Company to invest $6 billion in new products and facilities in the last 10 years. PACCAR achieved record net operating cash flow of $1.6 billion in the first half of 2016. PACCAR's capital spending of $325 million to $375 million this year is targeted at enhanced aftermarket support, manufacturing facilities, and new product development.

PACCAR 強勁的資產負債表和現金流使該公司在過去 10 年中投資了 60 億美元用於新產品和新設施。PACCAR 在 2016 年上半年實現了創紀錄的 16 億美元淨經營現金流。PACCAR 今年的資本支出為 3.25 億美元至 3.75 億美元，主要用於加強售後市場支援、製造設施和新產品開發。

Research and development expenses are estimated to be in a range of $240 million to $260 million. PACCAR continues to enhance its leadership position in the global truck market by developing the highest quality products and services in the industry.

研發費用預計在 2.4 億美元至 2.6 億美元之間。PACCAR 透過開發業內最高品質的產品和服務，不斷鞏固其在全球卡車市場的領先地位。

Thank you, and I look forward to your questions.

謝謝，期待你們的提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Your first question comes from the line of Ross Gilardi with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

你的第一個問題來自美國銀行美林證券的羅斯吉拉迪。

Good morning, Ross.

早安，羅斯。

It looks like Ross withdrew his question. I apologize. So your next question comes from the line of Steve Volkmann with Jefferies.

看來羅斯撤回了他的問題。我道歉。所以你的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Steve Volkmann。

Good morning, Steve.

早安，史蒂夫。

Good morning. I'm here. Maybe just if I could ask you to give us an update on how you see your and industry inventory levels in North America and in Europe? And I guess specifically, I'm trying to think about the potential that you will need to adjust production levels at all in the second half? Or do we think of them as being fairly stable going forward?

早安.我在這裡。或許我可以請您介紹一下您如何看待北美和歐洲的庫存水準以及整個產業的庫存水準嗎？我猜具體來說，我是在思考你們在下半年是否需要調整生產水準？或者我們認為它們在未來會相當穩定？

Dealer inventories are in excellent shape in both of our key markets, North America and Europe, and they have been. We adjusted build rates in the second half of last year to balance with demand and we've had steady inventories and steady build during the first half of this year and projected to see that continue for the second half of this year.

我們在北美和歐洲這兩個主要市場的經銷商庫存狀況都非常良好，而且一直都是如此。去年下半年，我們調整了生產速度以平衡需求，今年上半年庫存和生產都保持穩定，預計下半年將繼續保持這種狀態。

Okay. Great. Maybe just a quick follow-up. Retail sales have been running obviously ahead of orders for a while.

好的。偉大的。或許只需要簡單跟進。一段時間以來，零售額明顯高於訂單量。

Yes.

是的。

And I guess the market maybe is having a little bit of trouble figuring out whether we should be paying more attention to one versus the other. Is it your view that orders will sort of recover to retail levels once inventories get in shape? Or do you think that once people take deliveries of these trucks, the order rates will continue to be lower and things will sort of take another step down?

我想市場可能有點難判斷我們應該要更關注哪一個。您是否認為，一旦庫存恢復正常，訂單量就會逐漸恢復到零售水準？或者你認為一旦人們開始接收這些卡車的貨物，訂單量就會繼續下降，情況會進一步惡化嗎？

I think there's a lot of trucks still being produced on some of the backlog and so I think orders will come back to better reflect what retail sales activity is. The great news is that Peterbilt and Kenworth, because of their approach to building trucks to customer orders, they've gotten a higher share of the orders during the first half of the year, just under 35%. They've done a great job of supporting their customers.

我認為目前還有很多卡車正在生產，以彌補一些積壓訂單，所以我認為訂單量會逐漸恢復，更好地反映零售銷售活動的情況。好消息是，由於彼得比爾特和肯沃斯採用根據客戶訂單生產卡車的方式，它們在今年上半年獲得了更高的訂單份額，接近 35%。他們在客戶服務方面做得非常出色。

Just finally, you guys have traditionally a pretty high share in the oil and gas markets which have obviously been very weak. Any signs of any kind of life there yet?

最後，你們在石油和天然氣市場歷來佔有相當高的份額，而這些市場顯然非常疲軟。那裡有任何生命跡象嗎？

I think it's -- I think I'd say it's bottomed out and the opportunity is up from here, I think.

我認為——我認為它已經觸底反彈，機會即將到來。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your next question comes from the line of Timothy Thein with Citi Research.

你的下一個問題來自花旗研究部的 Timothy Thein。

Thank you. Good morning. The first question is just -- good morning.

謝謝。早安.第一個問題就是──早安。

Just to come back to the outlook that you provided from a margin standpoint of 14.5 to 15. There's been some shifting in terms of your regional expectations. But can you come back and revisit us in terms of how you're thinking on that from a full year standpoint?

回到您之前提供的利潤率展望，14.5 到 15。你們的區域預期發生了一些變化。但是，您能否從一年後的角度，再回來和我們談談您對此事的看法？

I think we think that's still a good range for the full year, Tim. That's where we expect to land.

提姆，我認為這個範圍對於全年來說仍然比較合理。我們預計會降落在那裡。

Okay. Got it. Just on parts specifically, I think the expectation had been North America up -- call it I think 3, and Europe around that range as well. We're starting from a little bit of a hole here in the first half. So any update to that guidance from a revenue standpoint?

好的。知道了。就零件而言，我認為北美地區的預期是——我猜是 3，歐洲地區也差不多在這個範圍內。上半場我們開局有點落後。那麼從營收角度來看，該指引有任何更新嗎？

I think as we look at the second half, I think we see second half parts sales probably be up 2% to 4% compared to the first half levels. Traditionally, the second half parts activity has been a little higher than the first half.

我認為展望下半年，下半年的零件銷售額可能會比上半年成長 2% 到 4%。傳統上，下半年的市場活動通常比上半年略高。

Okay. Understood. Thanks a lot.

好的。明白了。多謝。

You bet.

當然。

Your next question comes from the line of Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse.

你的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Jamie Cook。

Hi. Good morning.

你好。早安.

Good morning, Jamie.

早安，傑米。

Just a couple questions. One, I know you won't give official retail sales forecast outlook until next quarter. You've seen some industry experts in the US like ACT, they've taken down their forecast for 2017. They're now assuming a down year.

幾個問題。第一，我知道你們要到下個季度才會公佈官方的零售銷售預測展望。您可能已經看到，像 ACT 這樣的美國行業專家已經撤下了他們對 2017 年的預測。他們現在預計今年將是經濟下滑的一年。

You have within -- I guess with Europe there's some greater concerns on the longer term implications of Brexit and how that impacts things. I guess my question is, I know you're not going to give a specific number, but do you think the market is too bearish on 2017? Or given what you see today, is it fair to assume that 2017 would be down in the US? And then given that you raised your forecast, it appears you're not that worried about Brexit -- just sort of your thoughts there?

我想，歐洲方面更關注的是英國脫歐的長期影響以及它將如何影響事物。我想問的是，我知道你不會給出具體數字，但你認為市場對 2017 年的預期是否過於悲觀？或者，根據你今天看到的情況，是否可以合理地假設 2017 年美國經濟將會下滑？既然你提高了預測值，看來你並不太擔心英國脫歐——你對此有什麼看法？

My second question is you said PACCAR dealer inventories were good? I don't think you answered or talked about what you're seeing from the competitors --if you could provide any color there? Thank you.

我的第二個問題是，您說PACCAR經銷商的庫存狀況良好？我認為你沒有回答或談到你從競爭對手那裡看到的情況——如果你能提供一些相關資訊的話？謝謝。

Based on the information we have about dealer inventories, I think we're probably below where some of the competition are with respect to their inventory positions. But we're very comfortable with where we're at, both Europe and North America.

根據我們掌握的經銷商庫存信息，我認為我們的庫存水平可能低於一些競爭對手。但我們對目前在歐洲和北美的發展狀況都非常滿意。

With respect to 2017, I guess based on, as we sit here today, it feels like some of the negative forecasts feel a bit bearish at this point. That's about all I can say at this point.

就 2017 年而言，我認為，就我們目前的情況來看，一些負面預測現在看來有點悲觀。目前我只能說這麼多了。

Okay. Thanks. I'll get back in queue.

好的。謝謝。我重新排隊。

Your next question comes from the line of David Leiker with Robert W. Baird.

你的下一個問題來自大衛·萊克和羅伯特·W·貝爾德的系列文章。

Hi, this is Joe Vruwink for David.

您好，我是喬‧弗魯溫克，我是大衛的代表。

Good morning, Joe.

早安，喬。

When you look at commodity price movements through the first six months of the year, particularly steel, do you have any sense if prices stay at current levels and you get your resets on your pass-throughs into next year, maybe $1 margin headwind you would expect to encounter?

當你觀察今年前六個月的大宗商品價格走勢，特別是鋼鐵價格走勢時，如果價格保持在當前水平，並且你的轉嫁價格重置到明年，你是否預估你會遇到 1 美元的利潤率阻力？

I think at this point we've seen reductions over the last several quarters. I'd say their prices are -- or costs are firming, but we don't anticipate any significant impact of material cost movements in the near term.

我認為，在過去的幾個季度裡，我們已經看到了下降的趨勢。我認為他們的價格——或者說成本——正在趨於穩定，但我們預計短期內材料成本的變動不會產生任何重大影響。

Okay. That's helpful. And then just on the extent of market share gains, both in the US and in Europe, share is typically hard to come by in this industry and it's tougher to hold onto, so you're six months into a pretty big share spike or share improvement.

好的。那很有幫助。再看看市場份額的成長幅度，無論是在美國還是歐洲，在這個行業中，市場份額通常很難獲得，也更難保持，所以你已經經歷了六個月相當大的市場份額飆升或市場份額提升。

Do you think that can hold? Obviously your residual values, particularly at Peterbilt are well above what the industry is doing, so I'd imagine that's a big positive. But are there things with the new product lineup or other intangibles with PACCAR where you think 34%, 35%, that doesn't just need to be the first six months, it could be a 2016 outcome ultimately?

你覺得這樣能維持下去嗎？顯然，你們的殘值，特別是彼得比爾特的殘值，遠高於行業平均水平，所以我認為這是一個非常有利的因素。但是，PACCAR 的新產品陣容或其他無形因素是否會導致 34%、35% 的成長，這不一定是指前六個月的成長，最終也可能是 2016 年的成長？

Again, that's orders in terms of retail sales. The second quarter, Peterbilt and Kenworth were 28% and reflecting the great products and services with parts and finance that we provide through our dealer network. We have the strongest dealer network.

再次強調，這是零售銷售的訂單。第二季度，Peterbilt 和 Kenworth 的銷售額佔比為 28%，這反映了我們透過經銷商網路提供的優質產品和服務，包括零件和金融服務。我們擁有最強大的經銷商網路。

So when I started with the Company, Peterbilt and Kenworth were 21% and they've grown to 28% over a period of time and over the 20 year period we've owned DAF we've gone from less than 10% to 16%. So we have a long-term track record of incrementing that share and I think that's our focus and with the product lineup and the support activities that he we have in place today, that will continue to be our focus, to achieve those increments.

所以當我剛加入公司時，Peterbilt 和 Kenworth 的市佔率是 21%，經過一段時間的成長，市佔率成長到了 28%。在我們擁有 DAF 的 20 年裡，市佔率從不到 10% 成長到了 16%。因此，我們長期以來一直致力於提高市場份額，我認為這是我們的重點，憑藉我們目前的產品陣容和支援活動，這將繼續是我們的重點，以實現這些成長。

Maybe let me ask it this way. You're at 28%, you're booking at 34%, so in 2017 are you maybe in the low 30s for retail share?

或許我該這樣問。你們目前的零售份額是 28%，預訂份額是 34%，那麼 2017 年你們的零售份額可能在 30% 左右嗎？

I think that's -- I'd love to be, but that might be optimistic.

我覺得──我很想成為那樣的人，但這可能有點樂觀。

Okay. Thanks very much.

好的。非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your next question comes from the line of Andy Casey with Wells Fargo.

你的下一個問題來自富國銀行的安迪凱西。

Good morning, everybody.

大家早安。

Good morning, Andy.

早安，安迪。

Question on the European orders? A few of your European competitors have kind of talked about modest declines in their EU region truck orders compared to last year. Can you comment on what you saw in terms of order intake during the quarter compared to Q2 2015?

關於歐洲訂單的問題？你們的一些歐洲競爭對手已經表示，與去年相比，他們在歐盟地區的卡車訂單略有下降。能否就本季訂單量與 2015 年第二季相比的情況發表一下看法？

I'd say it was very comparable. Nice, consistent order board throughout the quarter. So I'd say it's very consistent with what we saw in 2015 levels, and if you recall 2015 we were increasing build rates throughout the year. This year we started at a stronger pace and we maintained that and anticipate further build rate enhancements in the second half.

我認為兩者非常相似。整個季度訂單狀態都很好，很穩定。所以我覺得這和我們2015年看到的水平非常一致，如果你還記得的話，2015年我們全年都在提高建築速度。今年我們開局節奏更快，並保持了這一勢頭，預計下半年建設速度將進一步提高。

Okay. Thanks, Ron. And then the finance companies saw little uptick in provisions for losses on receivables, compared to both last year and Q1. Was that driven by a specific region or can you help us understand? It was small, but what was going on there?

好的。謝謝你，羅恩。與去年同期和第一季相比，金融公司應收帳款損失撥備幾乎沒有增加。這是由特定地區造成的嗎？您能幫我們了解一下嗎？地方雖小，但那裡究竟發生了什麼事？

It's small and it's very discrete in terms of particular customers and activities. So it really is -- the portfolio's performing great. The past dues have been less than 1% now for many years, and it continues to perform at that level.

它規模很小，而且在特定客戶和活動方面非常低調。確實如此－該投資組合表現非常出色。多年來，逾期欠款率一直低於 1%，並且一直保持在這一水平。

Okay. Thanks. And then the last question is kind of how to look at the short term?

好的。謝謝。最後一個問題是如何看待短期前景？

You talked about the production pattern already slightly lower Q3 versus Q2. Should the margin be somewhat similar in Q3 versus Q2 because you had kind of an earlier than industry production decrease last year in North America that seemed to impact the margin?

您提到第三季的生產模式已經比第二季略有下降。第三季的利潤率是否應該與第二季大致相同，因為去年北美地區的產量下降比行業平均要早，這似乎對利潤率產生了影響？

Yes, I think as I mentioned, we'll see both production and margins down slightly in the third quarter as a result of the European summer shutdown period.

是的，正如我之前提到的，由於歐洲夏季停工期的影響，第三季的產量和利潤率都會略有下降。

Okay. Thank you very much.

好的。非常感謝。

You bet.

當然。

Your next question comes from the line of Ann Duignan with JPMorgan.

你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的安‧杜伊尼安。

Hi, good afternoon.

您好，下午好。

Good afternoon, Ann.

下午好，安。

At least in our time zone it's afternoon. Can you talk a little about what you're hearing from your customers in terms of -- we're getting into that seasonal time frame where large fleets start to contemplate placing orders for 2017 delivery. What are you hearing from the customer base out there?

至少在我們這個時區，現在是下午。您能否談談您從客戶那裡聽到的一些反饋——我們即將進入季節性時期，大型車隊開始考慮訂購 2017 年的交付車輛。你從客戶群中聽到了哪些回饋？

I think it's looking at the results of some of our customers, those that have reported, you see the results are still good. They're not maybe as buoyant as they were a year ago, but still good, solid results. I think a lot of their decisions about truck orders will be driven by the economic conditions.

我認為，看看我們一些客戶的回饋結果，那些已經報告結果的客戶，你會發現結果仍然很好。雖然可能不如一年前那麼樂觀，但仍然取得了良好、穩健的成績。我認為他們關於卡車訂單的許多決定都將受到經濟狀況的影響。

We've seen lower orders in the first half. As we talked about, I think we'll see orders pick up and customers start to place orders to get in their positioning for 2017 build slots.

上半年訂單量有所下降。正如我們之前討論過的，我認為訂單量將會上升，客戶會開始下單，以便搶佔 2017 年的生產檔期。

And those comments were for North America?

這些評論是針對北美地區的嗎？

I think both, both markets.

我認為兩個市場都有可能。

Okay. And then on used prices, we've seen softness in used equipment prices. Could you talk about your brand's used pricing?

好的。此外，二手設備價格方面，我們看到二手設備價格疲軟。能談談貴品牌二手商品的定價嗎？

And also does that have any impact on PACCAR leasing? And is there any downside risk on residual values for PAC leasing?

這是否會對 PACCAR 的租賃業務產生任何影響？PAC租賃的殘值是否有下檔風險？

So used truck prices in Europe are pretty steady. They have been and we're starting to see a few Euro 6 trucks enter the market and the DAF Euro 6 trucks are really earning a nice premium in the used market.

因此，歐洲的二手卡車價格相當穩定。確實如此，我們開始看到一些歐6卡車進入市場，而DAF歐6卡車在二手車市場上確實獲得了不錯的溢價。

In North America, we have seen a reduction, several of our competitors have sizable quantities of used truck inventories. That's sort of dampened the entire market. The good news is that Peterbilt and Kenworth continue to enjoy 10% to 15% premium relative to the competition and that's part of the impact on PACCAR Financial Services.

在北美，我們看到二手卡車庫存減少，而我們的一些競爭對手則擁有大量的二手卡車庫存。這在某種程度上抑制了整個市場。好消息是，彼得比爾特和肯沃斯相對於競爭對手仍享有 10% 到 15% 的溢價，這對 PACCAR 金融服務公司產生了一定的影響。

Last year we were earning nice gains with a buoyant used truck market. This year those gains have gone down as a result of just lower average sales prices.

去年，由於二手卡車市場火爆，我們獲得了不錯的收益。今年，由於平均銷售價格下降，這些收益有所減少。

And any residual value risks?

還有殘值風險嗎？

No, no. I think we look at that every quarter and adjust our residual values based on the current market at that time. And so that's been reflected in our quarterly results.

不，不。我認為我們會每個季度都進行評估，並根據當時的市場狀況調整我們的殘值。因此，這一點已經反映在我們的季度業績中。

Okay. I'll leave it there. Thank you.

好的。我就說到這兒吧。謝謝。

Your next question comes from the line of Steven Fisher with UBS.

你的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的史蒂文費雪。

Thank you. Good morning.

謝謝。早安.

Good morning.

早安.

Wonder if you could just talk about the duration of your backlog today -- how it's changed over the last few months and the visibility you have for the rest of the year?

能否請您談談您今天的積壓工作量—過去幾個月來的變化情況，以及您對今年剩餘時間的可見性？

Well, orders have been -- let's talk about Europe first. Orders have been, as I mentioned, very good and we have a solid backlog and we're anticipating that we'll probably increase our daily build rates during the course of the second half. And North America, orders have been below production and retail sales.

嗯，訂單已經發出——我們先來談談歐洲的情況。正如我之前提到的，訂單情況非常好，我們有充足的積壓訂單，我們預計在下半年可能會提高每日生產速度。而在北美，訂單量一直低於生產和零售額。

So we continue to produce trucks that were ordered in 2015 and so -- we've got some good, solid orders in the backlog and we'll continue to build those trucks as well as the orders that are coming in on an ongoing basis.

因此，我們繼續生產 2015 年訂購的卡車，而且我們還有一些不錯的、穩定的訂單積壓，我們將繼續生產這些卡車，以及不斷湧入的訂單。

Okay. And then shifting over to the parts side of the business, how do you see the margin opportunity for parts going forward? One of your competitors reported a pretty notable -- notably high number. Can you just refresh us on the rebranding strategies you have here to augment parts margins and where you see these margins going from here?

好的。接下來，我們來談談零件業務，您認為未來零件業務的利潤空間如何？你的一個競爭對手報告了一個相當顯著的數字——一個非常高的數字。能否簡單介紹貴公司為提高零件利潤率而採取的品牌重塑策略，以及您預期這些利潤率未來的發展方向？

Well, as we develop new products and have developed new products over the years, we always take a look at enhancing our proprietary content of our vehicles and obviously with the increasing mix of MX engines in the truck park in North America, that's going to enhance our margin opportunity over time with respect to engine parts.

多年來，我們一直在開發新產品，同時也不斷改進我們車輛的專有技術。顯然，隨著北美卡車市場中MX引擎的佔比不斷提高，隨著時間的推移，這將提升我們在引擎零件方面的利潤空間。

But we also are trying to focus a lot on selling parts -- our TRP lineup of all makes and those have a little bit narrower margin on those. So it's a balance. So I'd say margins will be fairly consistent with what we've seen in the recent quarterly performance.

但我們也正努力將重點放在銷售零件上——我們的 TRP 系列涵蓋所有品牌，這些零件的利潤空間相對較小。所以這是一種平衡。所以我認為利潤率將與我們最近幾季的業績表現基本保持一致。

Okay. Helpful. Thank you.

好的。很有幫助。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your next question comes from the line of Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自高盛的傑瑞·雷維奇。

Good morning and good afternoon everyone.

各位早安，各位下午好。

Good morning, Jerry.

早安，傑瑞。

I'm wondering if you could talk about your key partners as you develop the autonomous vehicle platform? Whether it's DAF or Peterbilt or Kenworth, whoever's taking the lead on that? If you could just - to the extent you're willing to comment - talk about the time frame of when you expect to have a commercial product?

我想請您談談在開發自動駕駛汽車平台過程中，您的主要合作夥伴有哪些？無論是 DAF、Peterbilt 還是 Kenworth，都行，不管是誰在主導這項工作？如果您願意透露一些訊息，能否談談您預計何時能推出商業產品？

Nice to see the progress platooning. Wonder if you're willing to flesh that out a bit more for us?

很高興看到編隊訓練取得進展。不知道您是否願意再為我們詳細解釋一下？

Obviously it's very early days with advanced driver assistance systems. And all of the divisions are actively engaged in discussions with suppliers across division alliance, technology companies, really there's a lot of participants that we think can help support our entrance into those technologies.

顯然，高級駕駛輔助系統還處於非常早期的階段。各部門都在積極與部門聯盟內的供應商、技術公司等進行討論，我們認為有很多參與者可以幫助我們進入這些技術領域。

So we're very active and it's going to be probably more than five years before you see something on the road that is fully autonomous and operating day-to-day. Don't know how long that will be. It's something that everybody's focused on and we're making some sizable investments in the technologies and capabilities in that area.

所以我們正在積極研發，可能還需要五年以上的時間，你才能在路上看到完全自動駕駛並日常運作的車輛。不知道會持續多久。這是大家都在關注的事情，我們也在該領域的技術和能力方面進行了大量投資。

Okay. And then from a shorter term standpoint, can you talk about what was pricing in the quarter for you in US and Europe in the first quarter? 10-Q looks like there was a modest headwind in Europe?

好的。那麼從短期來看，您能否談談第一季在美國和歐洲的定價情況？10-Q 看起來歐洲那邊似乎遇到了一些逆風？

I'm wondering was that just a timing phenomenon? Can you talk about if pricing turned positive in Europe in the second quarter?

我想知道這是否只是時間上的巧合？您能否談談第二季度歐洲的定價是否有改善？

I think pricing in Europe is relatively steady and has been for some time, and US pricing is also steady. Obviously the lower used truck prices can impact large transactions you do with fleets. That's -- I'd say the pricing in both markets is pretty consistent.

我認為歐洲的物價相對穩定，而且已經穩定了一段時間，美國的物價也很穩定。顯然，二手卡車價格走低可能會對您與車隊進行的大型交易產生影響。也就是說——我認為這兩個市場的定價相當一致。

Okay. And lastly, I'm wondering if you're willing to talk about what order inquiry levels have been like in Europe in July, just to calibrate us what you're hearing from your customers post Brexit, if you're willing to comment directionally?

好的。最後，我想請您談談7月份歐洲的訂單諮詢量情況，以便我們更了解您在英國脫歐後從客戶那裡聽到的回饋。如果您願意就此發表一些看法的話？

Post Brexit, as I said in my comments, the order activity and inquiries continue at good, solid rates. We upped our range estimate for the European market and as I mentioned, we're going to be enhancing our build rate in the second half in Europe to reflect that demand.

正如我在評論中所說，脫歐後，訂單活動和諮詢量依然保持良好、穩定的水平。我們提高了對歐洲市場的預期產量，正如我之前提到的，為了滿足市場需求，我們將在下半年提高在歐洲的產能利用率。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your next question comes from the line of Joel Tiss with BMO.

你的下一個問題來自 Joel Tiss 與 BMO 的對話。

Hi, guys. How's it going?

嗨，大家好。怎麼樣了？

Good. How about you, Joe?

好的。喬，你呢？

Hanging in there.

堅持住。

Good.

好的。

On medium duty, can you talk about where your share is trending? I'm trying to gauge the success of the new products that you guys rolled out. Maybe like a three year view of what's happened to your share there?

中等負荷方面，您能談談您的市佔率趨勢嗎？我正在評估你們推出的新產品的成功程度。或許可以看看你所持有的股票在過去三年的變化？

So the medium duty product is the same excellent product that we've had in the market for the last several years. Last year we achieved a record share, 17.2% and we're in that same range, slightly lower than that year-to-date this year.

所以這款中型產品和我們過去幾年在市場上銷售的優秀產品是一樣的。去年我們取得了創紀錄的市場份額，達到 17.2%，而今年到目前為止，我們的市佔率也大致在這個範圍內，略低於去年同期。

The medium duty market last year was - in Class 6 and 7 where we participate - was about 80,000 trucks and we think that market is going to be comparable to that level this year. And the durability and, again, the residual value of those trucks is great in the market, well-received by our customers.

去年，我們參與的 6 級和 7 級中型卡車市場規模約為 8 萬輛，我們認為今年的市場規模將與此相當。而且這些卡車的耐用性以及殘值在市場上都非常出色，深受顧客好評。

Can you just help us to understand the incentive for you guys to sell used trucks outside of the dealer network? You know, building a new facility in Chicago?

能否請您解釋一下，貴公司為什麼要在經銷商網路之外銷售二手卡車？你知道，就是在芝加哥建造一座新工廠？

We have two facilities, one in Salt Lake City, one in Spartanburg, and as there are more larger -- the average order size of transactions increases over time. More of those involve trade activity. We participate with our dealers in consummating those transactions.

我們有兩個工廠，一個在鹽湖城，一個在斯帕坦堡，隨著工廠規模的擴大，交易的平均訂單規模也會隨著時間的推移而增加。其中更多涉及貿易活動。我們與經銷商共同完成這些交易。

And so we want to have very efficient way and effective way of selling those used trucks into the marketplace. So this enhances our capability. I think we'll see some additional investments over the coming years in used truck distribution capabilities.

因此，我們希望找到一種非常有效率且有效的方式，將這些二手卡車銷售到市場上。這增強了我們的能力。我認為未來幾年我們將看到對二手卡車配送能力的額外投資。

All right. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your next question comes from the line of David Raso with ISI.

你的下一個問題來自大衛·拉索和ISI。

Hi, thank you. Maybe I missed this. I apologize. The second quarter to third quarter progression, you high lighted the DAF shutdown. Did you express North America, or I should say US, Canada and Other, how do you view them sequentially, 2Q, 3Q?

您好，謝謝。或許我錯過了。我道歉。在第二季到第三季的進展中，您重點提到了 DAF 的關閉。您是說北美，還是應該說美國、加拿大和其他國家？您是如何按順序看待它們的，例如第二季、第三季？

The change from second to third I think we'll be down 500 to 1,000 trucks and substantially all that's Europe.

我認為從第二名降到第三名，我們將減少 500 到 1000 輛卡車，基本上都是歐洲的卡車。

So US, Canada, you expect to be similar to the 19,800 you --

所以美國、加拿大，你們預計會跟那19800人差不多——

North America numbers will be comparable.

北美的數據將具有可比性。

That's impressive. And the Other number was a little higher than I would have thought 1Q to 2Q. Again, I apologize. I might have missed it.

那真是令人印象深刻。而其他數字比我預想的要高一些（第一季到第二季）。再次致歉。我可能錯過了。

What was the strength in the Other geography? To go from 3,300 units up to 3,900? Talking deliveries, units?

其他地理區域的優勢是什麼？從 3300 台增加到 3900 台？談交付量，單位？

I think that was primarily some additional units delivered in Mexico.

我認為那主要是運往墨西哥的一些額外設備。

Okay. That's helpful. And just big picture question - just trying to think about units versus gross margins?

好的。那很有幫助。還有一個更宏觀的問題──銷售與毛利率之間的關係？

Your units this past quarter, if you look back over the last couple years, maybe you look at third quarter of 2014 and say -- okay, similar units, in fact, a little bit lower, but the gross margins are nearly 200 basis points higher. Can you just characterize for us just so we have a better understanding -- because the parts revenues from them, they're not really much higher as a percent of total revenues so you can't say it's just parts mix.

如果你回顧過去幾年，例如看看 2014 年第三季度，你會發現，雖然銷量與上個季度相似，甚至略低一些，但毛利率卻高出近 200 個基點。您能否為我們做個簡要說明，以便我們更好地理解——因為這些零件的收入佔總收入的比例並沒有高出多少，所以不能說這只是零件組合的問題。

That 200 BPS, how much would you characterize, A, lower input costs, B, I know you're going to say the great work of your people, lowering the costs, I understand that, but maybe that bucket as well? And another key difference is the European shipments are a higher percent of the total now than a couple years ago.

那 200 個基點，您認為其中有多少是 A，降低投入成本；又有多少是 B，我知道您會說這是您的員工努力降低成本的結果，我明白這一點，但或許也包括這部分？另一個關鍵差異是，現在歐洲的出貨量佔總出貨量的比例比幾年前還要高。

So maybe we're not appreciating the profitability of Europe as the mix is going that direction? Just trying to help understand the framework of similar units but 200 basis points higher gross margin -- how would you bucket that improvement?

所以，或許我們沒有意識到歐洲市場的獲利潛力，因為市場結構正朝著那個方向發展？我只是想幫助理解類似產品但毛利率高出 200 個基點的框架——你會如何歸類這種改進？

I think your first two comments were pertinent. The input costs, we've benefited from lower input costs. In 2014 we were still transitioning to the Euro 6 product into the factories.

我認為你前兩則評論都很中肯。投入成本方面，我們受惠於較低的投入成本。2014 年，我們仍在逐步將工廠的產品過渡到歐盟 6 標準。

We were ramping up the 2.1-meter product and we were gaining a lot of ground with the MX engine production over that period. And so the efficiencies that have come with being two years after some of those transitions, getting the full benefit of the 2.1-meter products and our North American factories, all those factors have added and incremented that operating margin. So those are sort of the key elements of it.

在那段時間裡，我們加大了 2.1 公尺產品的生產力度，MX 引擎的生產也取得了很大進展。因此，經過兩年的轉型，我們充分利用了 2.1 公尺產品和北美工廠的優勢，所有這些因素都提高了效率，增加了營業利潤率。所以這些就是其中的關鍵要素。

Okay. So I mean the capturing of the Euro 5 pricing, that was harder to get initially, just when you look at -- again, it's not perfect math. You try to figure out the average price per truck in Europe by the units and the revenue. It doesn't appear that we don't have the mix exactly within it.

好的。我的意思是，要掌握 5 歐元定價，最初比較困難，因為你看——再說一遍，這並非完美的數學計算。你試圖根據車輛數量和收入來計算歐洲每輛卡車的平均價格。看來我們還沒有完全掌握其中的配比。

The price of the average truck has gone up that much. Recapture the Euro 5 pricing more now than a couple years ago maybe that's --

普通卡車的價格上漲了這麼多。現在重新採用歐5定價策略可能比幾年前更合適——

It's not so much the pricing as it is the operating efficiency. The Euro 5 to Euro 6 transition was -- occurred in a short period of time. As you get past the launch period you start achieving the operating efficiencies and performance in the field that goes with enhanced products. And so I think that's just what we've seen over that couple of year period.

關鍵不在於價格，而在於營運效率。歐元 5 到歐元 6 的過渡是在很短的時間內發生的。過了上市初期，你就能開始獲得增強型產品所帶來的營運效率和現場效能。所以我覺得這就是我們這兩年來所看到的。

So that's fair. Do you have a warranty number that maybe you can help us with? The warranty provisions, particularly in Europe, from this discussion, how much they've come down in the last couple years?

這樣說也算合理。請問您有保固號嗎？或許可以幫我們查一下。從這次討論來看，保固條款，尤其是在歐洲，在過去幾年下降了多少？

I don't have that. But that certainly is something that's been enhancement in our results is the warranty.

我沒有那個。但保固確實是我們業績提升的一大因素。

I appreciate the conversation. Thank you. I appreciate it.

我很感謝這次交流。謝謝。謝謝。

Sure. Absolutely.

當然。絕對地。

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Shlisky with Seaport Global.

你的下一個問題來自 Seaport Global 的 Mike Shlisky。

Good morning, guys.

各位早安。

Good morning.

早安.

Quick question on Financial Services. I saw that margins are down a few points in the first half from the prior year. Is what we saw in the first half similar to what we should expect in the back half of the year?

關於金融服務的一個簡短問題。我發現上半年利潤率比去年同期下降了幾個百分點。上半年的情況與下半年的情況類似嗎？

Or if we look at prior years, the margins are actually a little bit higher in the second half versus the first half in other years. Could that happen again this year? Just your kind of outlook on financial margins for the back half would be helpful.

或者，如果我們回顧往年，會發現其他年份下半年的利潤率實際上比上半年略高一些。今年會不會再發生這種情況？如果您能提供下半年財務利潤率的展望，那就太好了。

I think the second half will be comparable to first half. As I mentioned earlier, the first half of this year compared to last year was primarily the effect of lower used truck prices and the resale of used trucks that come off lease in our financial services operations.

我認為下半場的表現會和上半場差不多。正如我之前提到的，今年上半年與去年同期相比，主要原因是二手卡車價格下降以及我們在金融服務業務中出售租賃到期的二手卡車。

Okay. Great. I also wanted to turn secondly to Brazil. Obviously it's still small for you guys. Haven't really mentioned much.

好的。偉大的。其次，我還想去巴西看看。顯然對你們來說它還是很小的。沒怎麼提過。

Is there any kind of outlook you could say since last quarter? Have things gotten worse in Brazil in your opinion or better? Do you feel like maybe 2017 could be a better year if it's past bottoming out here?

您能否談談與上個季度相比的整體展望？你認為巴西的情況是惡化了還是好轉了？你覺得如果經濟已經觸底反彈，2017年會不會比較好？

I'd say, based on some recent visits to Brazil, that there's positive momentum in the country with the transition of leadership. And the feedback that we get from our customers and our dealers, the product is being very well received. Dealers are enthusiastic about the long-term future, as are we.

根據我最近幾次對巴西的訪問，我認為隨著領導層的過渡，巴西正在迎來積極的發展勢頭。從客戶和經銷商那裡得到的回饋來看，這款產品非常受歡迎。經銷商們對長遠前景充滿信心，我們也是。

And what we need is just a market. The market is going to be 35,000 trucks or so this year. That's down from a peak of 100,000. We're continuing to increase our deliveries and our share, albeit at low levels, but the opportunity is definitely there.

我們需要的只是一個市場。今年市場需求量預計在35,000輛左右。這比峰值10萬有所下降。雖然目前水準不高，但我們仍在不斷提高交付量和市場份額，機會確實存在。

Our team has done a great job of positioning the brand, establishing the parts and service capabilities. So I think there's going to be a nice upside as we progress and I'm hopeful that 2017 is going to be a stronger year than 2016.

我們的團隊在品牌定位、零件和服務能力建構方面做得非常出色。所以我認為隨著我們不斷進步，會有很好的發展前景，我希望 2017 年會比 2016 年更好。

Can I just ask that question also on the margin in Brazil? Could Brazil eventually be your best margin business or up there with the other businesses once it's kind of at a bit higher volume rates going forward?

我可以在巴西邊境也問一下這個問題嗎？隨著巴西市場銷售持續成長，它最終會成為你利潤最高的業務，還是會與其他業務並駕齊驅呢？

If you look at the history of Brazil and those peak markets, there were very strong margins in that market. And so there's no reason that can't happen again. But that's a ways away.

如果你回顧巴西的歷史以及那些市場高峰期，你會發現當時的市場利潤率非常高。所以，沒有理由認為這種情況不會再發生。但這還有很長的路要走。

Got it. Thanks so much, guys.

知道了。非常感謝各位。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your next question comes from the line of Mike [Bodenstiel] with Stifel.

你的下一個問題來自史蒂費爾公司的 Mike Bodenstiel 一線員工。

Thank you. Just wanted to ask you what your long-term growth outlook is for the parts business? Historically, you've done a great job of growing that well ahead of the other markets, 5%, 6%, 7%, 8% a year.

謝謝。我想請問一下，您對零件業務的長期成長前景有何看法？從歷史數據來看，你們在成長方面做得非常出色，遠遠領先其他市場，每年成長 5%、6%、7%、8%。

Just wondering what your expectation is in light of the investments you've made there? And in light of the fact that we could be in it for a period of lower Class 8 production than we've had the past few years?

我想知道，鑑於您在那裡的投資，您對未來的預期是什麼？考慮到未來幾年8級機車的產量可能會低於過去幾年的水平？

I think if you look at the history of our parts business, the last 10 years has grown at an average annual rate of 6%, 7% per year. I don't see any reason that can't be a comparable pace as we go forward. We continue to invest, we just -- in June had the grand opening of our new distribution center in Renton here in the state of Washington.

我認為，如果你回顧我們零件業務的歷史，你會發現過去 10 年的平均年增長率為 6% 至 7%。我認為沒有任何理由不能保持這樣的速度繼續前進。我們持續投資，就在六月，我們在華盛頓州倫頓的新配送中心盛大開幕。

We're looking at additional distribution center expansions or new locations, both in North America and Europe and looking at some of the other countries supporting that distribution capability as well. The team continues to invest in their e-commerce capabilities, their support of dealer programs, making it as easy to do business with PACCAR Parts as possible, expansion of their TRP brands and PACCAR branding.

我們正在考慮在北美和歐洲擴建或新建配送中心，同時也關注其他一些能夠支援這種配送能力的國家。該團隊繼續投資於其電子商務能力、對經銷商計劃的支持，盡可能簡化與 PACCAR Parts 的業務往來，並擴大其 TRP 品牌和 PACCAR 品牌。

So there's no reason that the team can't continue to grow that business sort of beyond and get a bigger share of that parts -- aftermarket parts market.

所以，這支隊伍完全可以繼續發展這項業務，並在售後零件市場獲得更大的份額。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your next question comes from the line of Neil Frohnapple with Longbow Research.

你的下一個問題來自 Longbow Research 的 Neil Frohnapple。

Good morning.

早安.

Good morning.

早安.

I know you guys provided a view on parts segment sales for the second half, sorry if I missed it. Did you provide a view on profitability for the second half as well? And would you expect pretax margins to be comparable to second quarter levels? Any thoughts there?

我知道你們對下半年的零件銷售情況做了分析，如果我錯過了，請見諒。您也對下半年的獲利能力做出了預測嗎？您預計稅前利潤率會與第二季水準相當嗎？大家有什麼想法嗎？

I think the pretax relationship to revenues would be consistent with what we've seen historically.

我認為稅前收入與營收之間的關係將與我們歷史上看到的情況一致。

Okay. And then with regard to -- can you comment on the MX engine penetration rate in the second quarter in North America? Just any thoughts on the mix of the MX on your current order board?

好的。那麼，關於—您能否談談第二季度MX引擎在北美的滲透率？對於您目前訂購的主機板上MX晶片的組合，您有什麼想法嗎？

I think both the penetration and the order board mix are right at nearing 50%.

我認為滲透率和訂單組合都接近 50%。

Great. Thanks very much.

偉大的。非常感謝。

You bet.

當然。

Your next question comes from the line of Joe O'Dea with Vertical Research.

你的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research 的 Joe O'Dea。

Hi.

你好。

Good morning.

早安.

On Europe delivery trends, just seeing sequentially the delivery volumes step down a little bit, and then just with seasonality and some plant shutdowns expected to step down a little bit more in 3Q.

從歐洲的交貨趨勢來看，交貨量較上季略有下降，而且由於季節性因素和一些工廠停工，預計第三季交車量還會進一步下降。

And comparing that versus seeing the guidance step up, I guess it was in the fourth quarter of last year deliveries were very strong, and should we be anticipating a similar type of volume in the fourth quarter of this year? Just given the strength of Europe and no apparent impact of Brexit?

與此相比，我們看到業績指引有所提升。我想去年第四季的交付量非常強勁，我們是否應該預期今年第四季也能達到類似的交付量？鑑於歐洲的實力以及英國脫歐似乎沒有造成任何影響？

So a lot of that delivery volume is driven by the number of workdays, and fourth quarter for DAF typically has the highest number of workdays in their year. So all other things being equal, the fourth quarter is typically one of their stronger quarters.

因此，許多交付量都取決於工作日的數量，而 DAF 的第四季度通常是一年中工作日最多的季度。因此，在其他條件相同的情況下，第四季通常是他們表現較好的季度之一。

Okay. And then just in terms of when you think you'll have greater confidence in terms of kind of -- we transition out of the summer lull in order activity in North America, will it take -- when does inquiry activity really start to pick up for you? We won't see it in actual orders I guess until you get into October and seasonality picks up. But when do you start to feel more confident around the visibility you have into 2017?

好的。那麼，就您認為何時才能更有信心，尤其是在北美夏季訂單活動淡季過後，您的詢價活動何時才會真正開始回升呢？我想，要等到十月季節性因素開始顯現時，我們才能在實際訂單中看到這種情況。但何時才能對2017年的前景更有信心呢？

Just knowing that it was the third quarter of last year when you started to take build rates down toward the end of that. We didn't hear anything about that in the second quarter of last year. Just trying to think about when you'll have a firmer feel for exactly how demand is shaping up into 2017?

只要知道，去年第三季末你們開始降低建設速度。去年第二季我們沒有聽到任何相關消息。我只是想了解一下，您什麼時候才能更精確地掌握2017年的需求趨勢？

We obviously monitor orders daily. We're very vigilant and we based our production on the level of order activity. So as we progress through the summer, get to the September, October time frame is typically when we sort of gauge the level of order activity for the rest of the year and how things might shape up for the beginning of 2017.

我們當然每天都會監控訂單狀況。我們非常謹慎，並根據訂單活躍程度來調整生產。隨著夏季的推進，到了九月、十月這段時間，我們通常會評估今年剩餘時間的訂單活動水平，以及 2017 年初的情況會如何發展。

So three months from now we'll talk about what our initial expectations are for 2017. A little early at this point.

所以三個月後，我們將討論我們對 2017 年的初步預期。現在說這個還為時過早。

Okay. Thanks a lot.

好的。多謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your next question comes from the line of Robert Wertheimer with Barclays.

你的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的羅伯特‧韋特海默。

Hi. Good morning.

你好。早安.

Good morning.

早安.

Two small ones from me. Just a clarification on the cost of steel which I think you said was firming up but not going to be really material near term? Does that reflect the full increase that you've seen in the markets? Or is that more like you don't expect it to affect 2016 and not going to comment on 2017?

我送你兩份小禮物。關於鋼材價格，我想確認一下，您之前說過鋼材價格正在穩定，但短期內不會有太大變化？這是否反映了您在市場中看到的全部漲幅？或者，你的意思是，你預計它不會影響 2016 年，所以不打算對 2017 年發表評論？

I think, again, we have long-term arrangements with our suppliers that sort of feed the cost movements into the product over time. So at this point it's not a significant item and we continue, obviously to work with our suppliers on other elements of cost reductions and incorporating new technologies and new materials into our products. And so there's always some ongoing cost reduction efforts that we have that tend to offset some of the commodity cost movements.

我認為，我們與供應商之間有長期的合作關係，這種合作關係能夠隨著時間的推移將成本變動反映到產品價格中。所以目前這並不是一個重要因素，我們顯然會繼續與供應商合作，在其他方面降低成本，並將新技術和新材料融入我們的產品中。因此，我們始終有一些持續的成本削減措施，這些措施往往可以抵銷一些商品成本的波動。

Perfect. Thank you. The second one, maybe I'm reading your press release too closely, but when you mentioned investing for future growth in PACCAR integrated powertrain components, is that a reference to the 11 leader and the refuse and the things that you talked about in the release or is that future as yet unreleased powertrain changes?

完美的。謝謝。第二個問題，也許是我對你們的新聞稿解讀得太仔細了，但是當你們提到投資於 PACCAR 集成動力總成部件以實現未來增長時，這是指 11 領導者和廢棄物以及你們在新聞稿中談到的那些東西，還是指尚未發布的未來動力總成變化？

We continue to work very closely with our suppliers of transmissions, axles, after-treatment and get -- be able to achieve the integration of their products and our products to provide our customers with the most efficient powertrains in the industry. So that's our focus, is to continue to have calibrations and capabilities that are customized and suited to our powertrain technologies.

我們繼續與變速箱、車軸、後處理和引擎供應商密切合作，以實現其產品與我們產品的整合，從而為我們的客戶提供業內最高效的動力系統。因此，我們的重點是繼續提供客製化且適合我們動力總成技術的校準和功能。

Perfect. Thank you.

完美的。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your next question comes from the line of Scott Group with Wolfe Research.

你的下一個問題來自 Scott Group 與 Wolfe Research 的合作系列。

Hey, thank you. Good morning, guys.

嘿，謝謝。各位早安。

Good morning, Scott.

早安，史考特。

So couple of just quick ones. Just following up on the gross margin question, can you just comment directionally how gross margins are right now in Europe versus US- Canada?

就幾個簡單的問題。關於毛利率的問題，您能否簡單評價一下目前歐洲和美國-加拿大的毛利率走勢？

Directionally?

方向上？

Meaning higher -- where are we higher right now?

意思是更高——我們現在處於什麼更高位置？

Boy, I'd say it's fairly comparable if you look at the all-in external margins. It's pretty comparable.

如果從整體外部邊際來看，我認為兩者相當接近。兩者非常相似。

Okay. And then as we contemplate potential impacts at some point from Brexit, can you just share within Europe how much of the revenue is in the UK? And then if there's any difference of how much of the cost structure is UK and pound denominated versus Euro denominated.

好的。那麼，當我們考慮英國脫歐可能帶來的某些影響時，您能否向歐洲分享英國的收入佔比是多少？然後，成本結構中以英鎊計價和以歐元計價的比例是否有差異。

So we have the benefit of having manufacturing operations in the UK. The only OEM to have that. So we have a partial offset to our revenues that we earn out of the UK.

因此，我們在英國擁有生產營運業務，這為我們帶來了優勢。唯一擁有這項技術的原始設備製造商。因此，我們從英國獲得的收入可以部分抵消。

So the impact as we see it for 2016 is relatively insignificant. And assuming the currency stays at its current level, then the OEMs will make pricing adjustments to achieve a reasonable margin on their businesses in the UK over time. So we don't see it as being a major factor in our margins over time.

因此，就 2016 年而言，其影響相對較小。假設匯率保持當前水平，那麼隨著時間的推移，汽車製造商將調整價格，以在英國的業務中獲得合理的利潤。因此，我們認為它不會成為我們長期利潤率的主要影響因素。

Okay. That's helpful. Just can you put some numbers just around the size of UK for you in broader Europe?

好的。那很有幫助。您能否提供一些與英國面積大致相當的歐洲數字？

So it's about 25% of our revenues for DAF.

所以，DAF 約占我們收入的 25%。

Okay. Perfect. Thank you, guys.

好的。完美的。謝謝大家。

Sure.

當然。

Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Kauffman with Buckingham Research.

你的下一個問題來自 Buckingham Research 的 Jeff Kauffman。

Thank you very much. Congratulations.

非常感謝。恭喜。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I just want to -- a lot of my questions have been asked but I just want to dig in a little bit deeper on the question David Raso was asking on costs versus maybe benefits from sourcing parts in different locations? So two questions.

我只是想——我的許多問題都被問過了，但我還想更深入地探討一下 David Raso 提出的問題，即在不同地點採購零件的成本與收益之間的關係？所以，我有兩個問題。

Number one, if I look at your revenue per unit, it was down about 5%. I want to disaggregate what's a mix issue versus a currency issue versus what actual pricing's doing. The same thing with costs.

第一，如果我看一下你們的單位收入，它下降了約 5%。我想區分哪些是產品組合問題，哪些是匯率問題，哪些是實際價格因素。成本方面也是如此。

If I take a look at maybe how currency is affecting cost per unit, raw materials affecting cost per unit versus what's volume related? How do I think about those buckets?

如果我看一下匯率如何影響單位成本、原料如何影響單位成本，以及銷售量如何影響單位成本呢？我該如何看待這些水桶呢？

So again, I don't know what you're comparing -- if you're comparing back to 2014 to now, clearly currency has had a sizable impact on the revenue side, but also on the cost side.

所以，我不知道你在比較什麼——如果你是從 2014 年到現在進行比較，顯然匯率對收入方面產生了相當大的影響，對成本方面也產生了相當大的影響。

And the cost side has gone down over that period of time because of the excellent factory efficiencies that we've gained with our new products, the performance of those products in the field, the material cost savings, the benefits of commodities, and just ongoing working with our suppliers to incorporate new materials, new technology into the products to achieve better operating efficiency and cost levels.

在此期間，成本方面有所下降，這得益於我們新產品帶來的卓越工廠效率、這些產品在現場的性能、材料成本的節省、大宗商品的優勢，以及我們與供應商不斷合作，將新材料、新技術融入產品中，以實現更高的運營效率和成本水平。

So the MX engine penetration is beneficial to that as well. So all those things are the elements that are driving that enhancement over that period of time.

所以MX引擎的普及也有利於這一點。因此，所有這些因素共同推動了這段期間內的成長。

Maybe ask it differently. If I look at just the change versus a year ago, in the cost of goods sold, how much of that should I attribute to lower raw material costs? How much of that should I attribute to currency?

或許可以換個方式問。如果我只考慮與去年同期相比的銷售成本變化，其中有多少應該歸因於原材料成本的降低？其中有多少應該歸因於貨幣因素？

To a year ago?

一年前？

Yes.

是的。

I'd say very little on currency.

關於貨幣方面，我沒什麼好說的。

And raw material costs?

原材料成本呢？

That would be most of the other difference.

除此之外，其他方面的差異主要就在於此了。

Okay. Just the last follow-up on the revenue side. If I look at the difference in the revenue per unit, how much of the decline is a mix issue versus a currency issue?

好的。關於營收方面，這是最後一個後續問題。如果我觀察單位收入的差異，那麼收入下降有多少是產品組合問題造成的，又有多少是匯率問題造成的？

And I think you mentioned that your units were retaining their used values well for Peterbilt and Kenworth? But what's happening with retail pricing?

我記得您提到過，您提供的 Peterbilt 和 Kenworth 卡車二手車保值率很高？但零售定價方面發生了什麼變化？

I think a lot of that is mix, because the European units have a slightly lower average sales price than North American units.

我認為這很大程度上是市場因素造成的，因為歐洲車型的平均售價略低於北美車型。

Okay. Beautiful. Thank you very much.

好的。美麗的。非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your next question comes from the line of Kwame Webb with Morningstar.

你的下一個問題來自 Kwame Webb 與 Morningstar 的合作。

Good morning, everyone.

各位早安。

Good morning.

早安.

I just had one question and it was following up on the investments that you guys were making. I think there was a comment about connectivity? I understand, I can't remember if it was this year or last year but PeopleNet was going to be the standard telematic solutions provider?

我只有一個問題，是關於你們正在進行的投資項目的後續情況。我記得好像有人提到網路連線方面的問題？我明白了，我不記得是今年還是去年了，但PeopleNet原本要成為標準的遠端資訊處理解決方案提供者？

Just sort of curious to know why you chose to go with them exclusively on the MX engine? Also, should I read that commentary about investments to mean something more substantial beyond that partnership?

我只是有點好奇，為什麼你們選擇只用他們的MX引擎？另外，我是否應該將那段關於投資的評論理解為除了合作關係之外的更實質的意義？

Truck connectivity is just something that everybody has to have in today's market. And we're into phase one of a probably 20-phase era [laughter] of enhancing that on an ongoing basis.

在當今市場上，卡車互聯功能已成為每個人都必須具備的功能。我們現在正處於可能長達 20 個階段的持續改善階段的第一階段[笑聲]。

And we evaluate our suppliers and capabilities of who can provide that and so we'll continue to work with our partners and provide the best solution that we think is available in the marketplace for them to get the best result operating their truck.

我們會評估供應商及其能力，看看誰能提供這種服務，因此我們將繼續與合作夥伴攜手，為他們提供我們認為市場上最好的解決方案，以幫助他們獲得最佳的卡車運作效果。

And so I guess the point is for right now it's going to be largely through partnerships to pursue that versus homegrowing anything?

所以我覺得，目前來看，主要還是要透過合作來實現，而不是自己去發展？

I think that's -- we have suppliers that -- I guess I would add -- the connectivity piece is -- call it common technology. What's most important is what we do with the data and how we interpret that data in a way that makes our trucks perform better in the marketplace, helps our dealers support customers and that's all homegrown. So the connectivity piece is pretty common technology.

我認為——我們有供應商——我想我還要補充一點——連接部分——可以稱之為通用技術。最重要的是我們如何處理數據，以及如何解讀數據，從而使我們的卡車在市場上表現更好，幫助我們的經銷商更好地支持客戶，而這一切都是我們自主研發的。所以連接部分是相當常見的技術。

Great. All right. Thanks so much.

偉大的。好的。非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your next question comes from the line of Alex Potter with Piper Jaffray.

你的下一個問題來自 Alex Potter 和 Piper Jaffray 的那條線。

Hi, guys. Thank you. Most of the questions have been answered for me. I just had one on parts guidance. I think last quarter - somebody touched on this partially in an earlier question - but last quarter you had said you expected parts to be up 3% for the full year, first couple quarters of the year we've been tracking behind that. Was wondering what it was that has changed in that segment versus last quarter to account for the implicit guide-down in revenue for that particular segment? Thank you.

嗨，大家好。謝謝。大部分問題都已解答。我剛剛參加了一個關於零件指導的會議。我認為上個季度——之前有人在某個問題中部分提到過這一點——但上個季度您曾表示預計全年零部件銷量將增長 3%，而今年前幾季度我們的實際銷量一直低於這個預期。我想知道與上個季度相比，該業務板塊發生了哪些變化，從而導致了該業務板塊收入的隱性下調？謝謝。

It's just reflective of what the retail activity is at our dealer locations. Our team continues to have great products and services for our dealers to help them gain share but I think the overall market is a little softer than what we had anticipated previously.

這反映了我們經銷商門市的零售活動。我們的團隊將繼續為經銷商提供優質的產品和服務，幫助他們擴大市場份額，但我認為整體市場比我們之前預期的要疲軟一些。

Okay. So that's just mileage, tonnage, actual freight hauling activity or parts consumption by the truck park out there is just lower than what you thought?

好的。所以，實際的里程數、噸位、貨運活動或卡車零件消耗量都比你想像的要低？

Absolutely.

絕對地。

Okay.

好的。

That's correct.

沒錯。

Very good. Thank you.

非常好。謝謝。

There are no other questions in the queue at this time. Are there any additional remarks from the Company?

目前隊列中沒有其他問題。公司還有其他補充說明嗎？

We'd like to thank everyone for their excellent questions and thank you, operator.

感謝大家提出的精彩問題，也謝謝接線生。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes PACCAR's earnings call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，PACCAR的財報電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。