帕卡 (PCAR) 2016 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to PACCAR's third-quarter 2016 earnings conference call. All lines will be in a listen-only mode until the question-and-answer session. Today's call is being recorded, and if anyone has any objections, they should disconnect at this time.

早安，歡迎參加帕卡公司2016年第三季財報電話會議。在問答環節開始前，所有線路將設定為唯讀模式。本次電話會議將進行錄音，如有任何異議，請立即中斷連線。

I would now like to introduce Mr. Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. Mr. Hastings, please go ahead.

現在我謹介紹帕卡公司投資者關係總監肯‧黑斯廷斯先生。黑斯廷斯先生，請開始。

Good morning. We would like to welcome those listening by phone and those on the webcast. My name is Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations, and joining me this morning are Ron Armstrong, Chief Executive Officer, Bob Christensen, President and Chief Financial Officer, and Michael Barkley, Senior Vice President and Controller.

早安.歡迎各位透過電話和網路直播收聽節目的朋友們。我是PACCAR投資者關係總監肯·黑斯廷斯，今天早上與我一同出席的還有首席執行官羅恩·阿姆斯特朗、總裁兼首席財務官鮑勃·克里斯滕森以及高級副總裁兼財務總監邁克爾·巴克利。

As with prior conference calls, if there are members of the media on the line, we ask that they participate in a listen-only mode.

與先前的電話會議一樣，如果有媒體成員在線，我們要求他們以只聽模式參與。

Certain information presented today will be forward-looking and involve risks and uncertainties, including general economic and competitive conditions that may affect expected results.

今天公佈的某些資訊屬於前瞻性訊息，涉及風險和不確定性，包括可能影響預期結果的總體經濟和競爭狀況。

I would now like to introduce Ron Armstrong.

現在我來介紹羅恩·阿姆斯特朗。

Good morning. PACCAR reported good revenues and earnings for the third quarter of 2016. PACCAR's third-quarter sales and financial services revenues were $4.2 billion, and third-quarter net income was $346 million, a strong 8.1% after-tax return on revenues. PACCAR achieved excellent truck, parts and other gross margins of 14.7%, driven by Peterbilt, Kenworth and DAF premium products, a robust European truck market, strong parts sales and rigorous cost control.

早安. PACCAR公佈了2016年第三季良好的營收和獲利情況。 PACCAR第三季銷售和金融服務收入達42億美元，淨利為3.46億美元，稅後營收報酬率高達8.1%。由於Peterbilt、Kenworth和DAF等高端產品的出色表現、強勁的歐洲卡車市場、強勁的零件銷售以及嚴格的成本控制，PACCAR的卡車、零件及其他業務毛利率達到了14.7%。

Kenworth and Peterbilt achieved record quarterly Class 8 market share of 31% in the US and Canada. DAF increased year-to-date heavy-duty market share in Europe to 15.6%. PACCAR is increasing its investments in delivering new products and technologies, as reflected in the recent introduction of the new PACCAR axle, enhancements to PACCAR MX engines, and the DAF Connect telematics system. I'm very proud of our 23,000 employees who have delivered industry-leading products and services to our customers worldwide.

肯沃斯和彼得比爾特在美國和加拿大的8級卡車市佔率創下季度新高，達31%。達夫在歐洲的重型卡車市佔率今年迄今已成長至15.6%。帕卡集團正增加對新產品和新技術研發的投資，例如近期推出的新型帕卡車橋、帕卡MX引擎的升級以及達夫Connect遠端資訊處理系統。我為我們23,000名員工感到非常自豪，他們為全球客戶提供了領先業界的產品和服務。

This year marks the 20th anniversary of PACCAR's acquisition of DAF Trucks. Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF have achieved great synergies together. DAF has grown its market share from 9% to 15.6% in the last 20 years. DAF sales trucks, engines and aftermarket parts in over 100 countries worldwide. DAF's expertise in powertrain development contributed to the production of PACCAR MX engines in North America and 47% MX engine penetration in Kenworth and Peterbilt trucks.

今年是 PACCAR 收購 DAF 卡車 20 週年。 Kenworth、Peterbilt 和 DAF 之間實現了巨大的協同效應。過去 20 年，DAF 的市佔率從 9% 成長到 15.6%。 DAF 的卡車、引擎和售後配件銷往全球 100 多個國家。 DAF 在動力總成開發方面的專業知識促成了 PACCAR MX 引擎在北美的生產，並使 MX 引擎在 Kenworth 和 Peterbilt 卡車中的普及率達到 47%。

PACCAR delivered 34,900 trucks during the third quarter. Deliveries in Europe were 4% higher than last year's third quarter with deliveries in the US and Canada reflecting a lower market, partially offset by strong share growth. We have raised our 2016 forecast for Europe's greater than 16 ton market to a range of 290,000 to 300,000 units, reflecting strong demand and a steady economy. The Eurozone's GDP growth for this year is 1.5% with 2017 projected at a similar level.

帕卡公司第三季交付了34,900輛卡車。歐洲地區的交付量較去年同期增長4%，而美國和加拿大地區的交付量則因市場低迷而有所下降，但強勁的市場份額增長部分抵消了這一影響。鑑於強勁的需求和穩定的經濟形勢，我們將2016年歐洲16噸以上卡車市場的銷售量預測上調至29萬至30萬輛。歐元區今年的GDP成長率為1.5%，預計2017年將與此持平。

Freight transport activity on German highways is up 3% year-to-date compared to the same period last year, and we expect the 2017 European heavy truck market to be another excellent year, in a range of 260,000 to 290,000 units.

與去年同期相比，德國高速公路上的貨運活動今年迄今成長了 3%，我們預計 2017 年歐洲重型卡車市場將再次迎來一個非常好的年份，銷量將在 26 萬至 29 萬輛之間。

The US economy is growing 1.5% this year as well. US housing starts will grow 6% to 1.2 million units and the automotive industry will deliver 17.2 million vehicles, comparable to last year's record sales. Our estimate of retail sales for this year's US and Canadian Class 8 truck market is a range of 215,000 to 225,000 units. For 2017, economists are forecasting higher GDP growth of 2.2%, an increase in housing starts of 8%, and strong auto sales of 17.1 million units. Industrial production is expected to grow nearly 2% next year, which should be good news for the truck industry. We estimate US and Canadian Class 8 truck industry retail sales will be in a range of 200,000 to 230,000 units in 2017.

今年美國經濟同樣成長了1.5%。美國新屋開工量將成長6%，達到120萬套，汽車業將交付1,720萬輛汽車，與去年的創紀錄銷售持平。我們預計今年美國和加拿大8級卡車零售銷售將在21.5萬至22.5萬輛之間。經濟學家預測，2017年美國GDP成長率將達2.2%，新屋開工量將成長8%，汽車銷售也將強勁成長至1,710萬輛。預計明年工業生產將成長近2%，這對卡車產業來說無疑是利好消息。我們預計2017年美國和加拿大8級卡車零售銷售將在20萬至23萬輛之間。

PACCAR global truck deliveries in the fourth quarter are estimated to be about 5% lower than the third quarter, due to more holidays and slightly lower build rates in North America. This is partially offset by higher build rates and more production days in Europe. Truck parts and other gross margins in the fourth quarter are forecast to be 50 to 100 basis points lower than the third quarter.

受北美地區假日增多和生產力略為下降的影響，PACCAR預計第四季全球卡車交付量將比第三季下降約5%。歐洲地區較高的生產力和較多的生產天數部分抵消了這一影響。預計第四季卡車零件及其他業務的毛利率將比第三季下降50至100個基點。

PACCAR Parts business generated quarterly revenues of $765 million. Parts' quarterly pretax income was $338 million with an excellent pretax return on revenue of 18.1%. These results were driven by the growing number of PACCAR trucks and engines in operation, an expanding network of TRP stores, and the many innovative products and services offered by PACCAR Parts and our dealers.

PACCAR零件業務季度營收達7.65億美元。零件業務季度稅前利潤為3.38億美元，稅前利潤率高達18.1%。這些業績得益於PACCAR卡車和引擎營運數量的成長、TRP門市網路的擴張，以及PACCAR零件業務及其經銷商提供的眾多創新產品和服務。

PACCAR Financial Services' third-quarter pretax income was $71 million. Excellent portfolio performance contributed to the good results. During the quarter, PACCAR Financial enhanced its technology leadership with the introduction of a mobile sales and credit system which allows customers and dealers to complete a loan application, receive an expedited credit decision, and electronically sign a contract on a mobile device.

PACCAR金融服務公司第三季稅前利潤為7,100萬美元。優異的投資組合表現是取得良好績效的主要原因。本季度，PACCAR金融服務公司透過推出行動銷售和信貸系統，進一步鞏固了其技術領先地位。該系統允許客戶和經銷商透過行動裝置完成貸款申請、快速獲得信貸審批，並進行電子合約簽署。

PACCAR's strong balance sheet and cash flows have enabled the Company to invest over $6 billion in new products, technologies and facilities in the last 10 years.

PACCAR 強勁的資產負債表和現金流使公司在過去 10 年中投資超過 60 億美元用於新產品、新技術和新設施。

PACCAR estimates capital spending of $375 million to $400 million and R&D expenses of $240 million to $250 million this year. In 2017, we forecast increased capital investments of $375 million to $425 million, and increased R&D expenses of $270 million to $300 million. These investments will enhance PACCAR's integrated powertrain, deliver advanced driver assistance and truck connectivity technologies, and add additional capacity and efficiency to the Company's manufacturing and parts distribution facilities.

PACCAR預計今年資本支出為3.75億至4億美元，研發費用為2.4億至2.5億美元。 2017年，我們預測資本投資將增加至3.75億至4.25億美元，研發費用將增加至2.7億至3億美元。這些投資將提升PACCAR的整合動力系統，提供先進的駕駛輔助和卡車互聯技術，並提高公司製造和零件配送設施的產能和效率。

Thank you. I'd be pleased to answer your questions.

謝謝。我很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions). Alex Potter, Piper Jaffray.

（操作說明）。亞歷克斯·波特，派珀·傑弗裡。

Hi guys. Thanks for taking the question. I was wondering if you could talk first about growth in the Parts segment. We've seen some good sequential increases here over the past two quarters, still comping down in year-over-year terms though. So I was just wondering. I know that, historically, you had spoken about dealer inventory issues in past quarters, maybe some other moving pieces there. I was just wondering if you could give an update on what exactly is going on there, and whether you are changing your forward-looking expectations that that segment can sustain call it low to mid single digit growth.

大家好。感謝你們回答這個問題。我想先請你們談談零件業務的成長情況。過去兩個季度，我們看到該業務實現了不錯的環比成長，但同比仍然下降。所以我想了解一下。我知道你們之前幾季都提到經銷商庫存問題，可能還有其他一些因素。我想請你們更新一下這方面的具體情況，以及你們是否會調整對該業務未來成長的預期，例如繼續維持個位數低到中等的成長。

No, I think, as we look forward, comparing the second half of this year to the first half of this year, we think that we will see 2% to 4% growth during that period. And as we think about next year with the increasing number of PACCAR engines that are in the field and with our customers, we've sold over 100,000 MX engines so far. I think we feel that next year's Parts revenue growth would continue to see somewhere in the 2% to 4% revenue growth range.

不，我認為，展望未來，對比今年下半年和上半年，我們預計下半年將達到2%至4%的成長。考慮到明年PACCAR引擎的裝置量不斷增加，我們的客戶也越來越多（迄今為止，我們已售出超過10萬台MX引擎），我們認為明年零件業務的收入成長將繼續保持在2%至4%的範圍內。

Okay, very good. And then I had another question on raw material price fluctuations. Obviously, that's been a topic that folks have focused in on quite a bit recently, as well as the potential impact on gross margins. I was just wondering if you could provide an update maybe or a reminder exactly how PACCAR deals with that contractually with suppliers' long-term supply agreements and any impact you think that raw material fluctuation could have on margins maybe in the most recent quarter and then in coming quarters as well.

好的，非常感謝。接下來我還有一個關於原物料價格波動的問題。顯然，最近大家都很關注這個問題，以及它對毛利率的潛在影響。我想請您更新一下，或提醒一下PACCAR是如何透過與供應商簽訂長期供應協議來應對原物料價格波動的，以及您認為原物料價格波動會對最近一個季度以及未來幾季的毛利率產生哪些影響。

We have 75% to 80% of our purchases are under long-term agreements with our suppliers. Many of those have adjustment clauses that spread the effects of material cost movements over time, and I would say that the effect to date has been pretty nominal.

我們75%到80%的採購都與供應商簽訂了長期協議。其中許多協議都包含調整條款，可以將材料成本波動的影響分攤到一段時間內，我認為迄今為止，這些波動的影響微乎其微。

Okay, very good. Thanks guys.

好的，很好。謝謝大家。

Timothy Thein, Citigroup. (Operator Instructions).

提摩西‧泰恩，花旗集團。 （操作說明）

I think we should move on.

我認為我們應該繼續前進。

Certainly. Steven Fisher, UBS.

當然。史蒂文費雪，瑞銀集團。

Thanks, this is Cleve Rueckert on for Steve. Two questions. Thanks for the call guys. On the special dividend, how do you determine whether it will be flat year-over-year? I'm just thinking about the market for next year and I'm just wondering what your planning process is for that.

謝謝，我是克利夫·魯克特，替史蒂夫接電話。我有兩個問題。謝謝兩位接聽電話。關於特別股息，你們如何確定它是否會與去年持平？我正在考慮明年的市場狀況，所以想了解你們的規劃流程。

Well, we have a discussion with the board during the course of the fourth quarter, and the board will evaluate a lot of factors, and that decision will be made in our upcoming board meeting. So, if you look at the payout ratio over time, it's typically been in the 40% to 50% of net income range.

嗯，我們會在第四季與董事會進行討論，董事會將評估許多因素，並在即將召開的董事會會議上做出決定。所以，如果你看一下以往的派息率，通常在淨利的40%到50%之間。

Okay. Thank you. And then just on used pricing, how did used prices trend during the quarter? Are you seeing any changes in that market?

好的，謝謝。那麼關於二手車價格，本季二手車價格走勢如何？您觀察到市場有任何變化嗎？

I think the used prices, both in North America and Europe, during the third quarter were relatively stable, so not much movement during the quarter.

我認為第三季北美和歐洲的二手車價格都相對穩定，所以該季度價格波動不大。

Thanks very much. I appreciate it.

非常感謝，我感激不盡。

Nicole DeBlase, Deutsche Bank.

妮可‧德布拉斯 (Nicole DeBlase)，德意志銀行。

Thanks guys. Good morning. So, this wasn't in the press release, and I know it's still a really small part of your business, but, Ron, I'm curious about your outlook for the Brazil truck market in 2017.

謝謝各位。早安.我知道新聞稿裡沒有提到這一點，而且這在你們的業務中佔比也很小，但是，羅恩，我對你2017年對巴西卡車市場的展望很感興趣。

This year, we think hopefully will be the bottom of this cycle, and we expect to see some positive movement. I think the country is taking some really positive moves with some of their fiscal actions, so we are optimistic that the market will improve but, more importantly, we are very optimistic about the DAF product, its position in the market, the DAF dealers who represent DAF, and our ability to grow our share as we move forward. So, somewhere 40,000 trucks probably, plus or minus, compared to 30,000, to 32,000 this year.

我們認為今年有望成為本輪週期的底部，並期待看到一些積極的進展。我認為國家在一些財政政策方面採取了一些非常積極的措施，因此我們對市場好轉持樂觀態度。但更重要的是，我們對DAF產品、其市場地位、DAF經銷商以及我們未來擴大市場份額的能力都非常樂觀。因此，預計銷量將在4萬輛左右，上下浮動，而今年的銷量為3萬至3.2萬輛。

Okay, got it. Thanks Ron. That's helpful. And then just shifting to US and Canada dealer inventory, I know, last quarter, you said that you were pretty comfortable with your inventories in the channel. Is that still the case? And then what's your view on industry inventory levels?

好的，明白了。謝謝羅恩，這很有幫助。接下來我們來談談美國和加拿大經銷商的庫存狀況。我知道，上個季度您說過您對通路庫存相當滿意，現在情況還是這樣嗎？您對整個產業的庫存水準有何看法？

I'm very comfortable with our situation. We have less than 60 days worth of inventory in North America. We are in great shape in Europe. So, inventories are in great shape. I think the numbers I see, the industry inventories have moved down, and so that should be good for future orders.

我對我們目前的狀況非常滿意。我們在北美的庫存量不到60天。我們在歐洲的庫存狀況也非常好。所以，庫存狀況良好。我認為，根據我看到的數據，行業庫存已經下降，這對未來的訂單來說應該是個好消息。

Okay. Got it, thanks. I'll pass it on.

好的，明白了，謝謝。我會轉達的。

Ann Duignan, JPMorgan.

安‧杜伊尼安，摩根大通。

Good afternoon guys. How are things? Can we take a look at your forecast for 2017 for US and Canada? It's a bit more optimistic than ours or some of the industry pundits. And last year at this time, you were a lot more optimistic about US/Canada for 2016. Can you just talk a little bit about where your forecast might have been wrong for 2016, and where you think the risks might be for 2017? They could be upside or downside, frankly, but what you're seeing out there and what gives you confidence in the 2017 forecast?

下午好，各位。最近怎麼樣？我們能看看您對2017年美國和加拿大經濟的預測嗎？您的預測比我們或一些業內專家的預測要樂觀一些。去年這個時候，您對2016年美國/加拿大經濟的預測則樂觀得多。您能否談談您對2016年預測的偏差之處，以及您認為2017年可能存在的風險？坦白說，這些風險既有上升的可能，也有下降的可能。您目前觀察到的情況以及您對2017年預測的信心來源是什麼？

If you recall, we get smarter every quarter. And as we progressed, we adjusted US and Canada markets downward and Europe upwards. So, things happen in the economy around the world in the year. So it's -- sometimes you're on the right side, sometimes you are on the other side.

如果你還記得的話，我們每季都會變得更聰明。隨著我們不斷進步，我們下調了美國和加拿大市場的預期，上調了歐洲市場的預期。所以，一年之中，全球經濟都會發生各種變化。因此，有時候你的判斷是正確的，有時候則不然。

For next year, based on economic growth expectations of 2% or so, plus some industrial production improvement, continued strength in housing and automotive, we feel comfortable with the range of 200,000 to 230,000 for next year, and we will see how that progresses. Again, we will be smarter every quarter.

鑑於明年經濟成長預期約為2%，加上工業生產有所改善，以及住房和汽車行業的持續強勁增長，我們認為明年的就業人數預期在20萬至23萬之間比較合理，我們將密切關注實際情況的發展。我們會每季都根據實際情況做出更明智的調整。

Yes, but were there any pockets of surprise in 2016 where you thought there might be a better market and it turned out not so? I'm just trying to get some idea of where the weakness might exactly have shown up.

是的，但是2016年有沒有一些意料之外的情況，你原本以為市場會更好，結果卻並非如此？我只是想了解一下，市場疲軟的具體表現可能在哪裡。

I think was more of a -- again, it's more of a macro view than a micro view.

我認為這更多的是一種——再說一遍，這更多的是一種宏觀視角，而不是微觀視角。

Okay. And then just as a follow-up, can you kind of size the UK market for us for you versus Eastern Europe, and if the UK continues to be under pressure on Brexit actions or fears versus Eastern Europe maybe continuing to be strong into next year? If you put all of Eastern Europe together, which is a bigger market for PACCAR for DAF?

好的。那麼，作為後續問題，您能否幫我們分析一下英國市場與東歐市場的比較？如果英國市場繼續受到脫歐相關行動或擔憂的影響，而東歐市場明年是否會繼續保持強勁勢頭？如果將整個東歐市場合併計算，對帕卡和達夫而言，哪個市場更大？

That's -- so, the UK is typically 10,000 to 11,000 trucks per year, which is a really good market for DAF. And post-Brexit, the demand for trucks and parts is still present. Obviously, the pound movement has had some slight impact on margins, but the pound goes up and down and the prices adjust over time, so whatever impact there is is temporary.

英國每年通常需要1萬到1.1萬輛卡車，對DAF來說是一個非常好的市場。脫歐後，對卡車和零件的需求依然存在。當然，英鎊波動對利潤率產生了一些輕微的影響，但英鎊匯率有漲有跌，價格也會隨著時間推移而調整，所以無論有什麼影響，都是暫時的。

And the size of Eastern European market for DAF?

DAF在東歐的市場規模有多大？

I don't have those numbers, Ann.

安，我沒有那些號碼。

Okay. Maybe we can circle back. I'm just trying to figure out the net-net impact of maybe one being weaker and one being stronger. So I'll get back in line and we can talk about it off-line. Thank you.

好的。或許我們可以稍後再討論。我只是想弄清楚如果一方實力較弱，另一方實力較強，最終會產生什麼影響。我會重新排隊，我們之後可以私下討論。謝謝。

Stephen Volkmann, Jefferies.

Stephen Volkmann，傑富瑞集團。

Good morning. I'm trying to think a little bit about your MX engine penetration. I think, when we first started on this path, it was like a 50% penetration goal, and I guess we've achieved that, and I assume it's going to go higher going forward. I'm wondering if you have just a view of what 2017 might look like. But more than that, I'm trying to think about the utilization at that plant in the US, and I'm wondering -- I'm assuming that, as we get more penetration and more units of MX engine, that should be a margin tailwind for the Company. But I'm curious if you just might flesh that out for me.

早安.我正在思考貴公司MX引擎的市場滲透率。我記得，我們​​最初的目標是50%的滲透率，現在看來我們已經實現了，而且我預計未來還會繼續提高。我想知道您對2017年的市場前景有何看法。此外，我還想了解美國工廠的產能利用率，我假設隨著MX引擎滲透率和產量的提高，這將對公司的利潤率產生正面影響。我很想聽聽您對此的詳細分析。

As we do with all of our factories, we invest for the expected capacity in the midterm I guess you could say. And as we look long-term, we will continue to make investments to support our expectations. And so we expect the penetration of that to continue to climb gradually over time as more and more customers get the MX in their fleet and transition to more and more MX mix. So, I think we are well-positioned supporting the current market and we will continue to invest with new machinery to support the ongoing needs of -- really our global needs around the world.

正如我們所有工廠一樣，我們根據中期預期產能進行投資。展望未來，我們將繼續投資以滿足預期。因此，我們預計隨著越來越多的客戶在其車隊中配備MX車型並逐步增加MX車型的組合，其市場滲透率將隨著時間的推移而穩步提升。所以，我認為我們已做好充分準備，能夠滿足當前市場需求，並將繼續投資購買新設備，以滿足我們在全球的持續需求。

So is part of your CapEx increase because you need some more capacity at that plant?

所以，你們增加資本支出的部分原因是因為該工廠需要提高產能嗎？

We have some ongoing currently, yes, so we have a little bit of impact in 2016 and some ongoing investment in 2017.

是的，我們目前有一些正在進行的項目，所以我們在 2016 年產生了一些影響，並在 2017 年進行了一些持續的投資。

Okay, great. That's helpful. Thanks.

好的，太好了。這很有幫助。謝謝。

Jamie Cook, Credit Suisse.

瑞士信貸的傑米庫克。

Good morning. Two questions I guess. One, given that we are sort of at the end of October, can you talk to sort of what you're hearing from the big fleets and sort of how they are think about 2017 in regards of your retail sales forecasts or what you are hearing from the small and medium-size fleets?

早安.我想問兩個問題。第一，鑑於現在已經是十月底了，您能否談談您從大型車隊那裡了解到的情況，以及他們對2017年零售銷售預測的看法，或者您從中小車隊那裡了解到的情況？

And then I guess the second question on 2017, assuming that your retail sales forecasts are correct, for both the US and Europe, I don't think you talked about this in the prepared remarks. Can you talk about where you think gross margins can be, whether they would be flat, down, or up, just with some of the market dynamics that are taking place? Thank you.

那麼，關於2017年的第二個問題，假設您對美國和歐洲零售銷售的預測是正確的，我想您在準備的演講稿中沒有提到這一點。您能否談談您認為在當前市場動態的影響下，毛利率可能會持平、下降還是上升？謝謝。

So, our discussions with our customers have really focused on, one, the great performance of our products in the market. Discussions have typically centered on I guess I would say a comparable level of investment next year to what they've done this year, sort of small, medium, large, etc. I think a lot of that will obviously be dictated by how the economy develops.

所以，我們與客戶的討論主要集中在兩個方面：第一，我們產品在市場上的優異表現。第二，討論的重點通常是他們明年是否應該進行與今年相當規模的投資，例如小額、中額、大額等等。我認為，這很大程度上將取決於經濟發展狀況。

In terms of gross margins, thinking about next year, obviously there's a lot of things that will impact that over time. Right now, I would say our next year margins would be comparable to what we will see in the fourth quarter this year plus or minus 0.5% up or down.

就毛利率而言，展望明年，顯然有許多因素會隨著時間的推移對其產生影響。目前，我認為我們明年的毛利率將與今年第四季的毛利率相當，上下浮動0.5%。

I'm sorry. What did you say the fourth-quarter margin was?

抱歉，您剛才說第四季的利潤率是多少？

So, I said it would be down about 50 to 100 basis points from the third-quarter levels.

所以，我說過會比第三季的水準下降大約 50 到 100 個基點。

Okay, great. Thank you so much. I'll get back in queue.

好的，太好了。非常感謝。我會重新排隊。

Ross Gilardi, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

羅斯·吉拉迪，美國銀行美林證券。

Good morning. Thanks guys. PACCAR was very early at cutting production in late 2015, and you're it sounds like guiding to a slightly weaker Q4. Are you taking production down another notch in the US right now, and would you suspect that, when you do that, you will be able to produce in line with retail for 2017, which you are basically guiding flat to down 2% or so?

早安.謝謝各位。 PACCAR在2015年底很早就開始減產，聽起來你們似乎預期第四季業績會略微疲軟。你們目前是否正在進一步削減美國市場的產量？如果是這樣，你們認為減產後能否保證2017年的產量與零售需求持平（你們的預期是持平或下降2%左右）？

Our approach has always been, for a lot of years, has always been to build based on demand of our customers and our dealers, and our actions with respect to production reflect that. The great news is that, in the third quarter, we achieved a record market share from Peterbilt and Kenworth combined in US and Canada of 31%. So, great recognition of the great products that they are producing at their factories currently, and we will continue to build based on what that market demand looks like. So, inventories are in great shape, and so I would think that retail would be closely tied to production levels as we move forward.

多年來，我們始終堅持根據客戶和經銷商的需求進行生產，我們的生產策略也反映了這一點。令人振奮的是，第三季度，我們在美國和加拿大的Peterbilt和Kenworth市佔率合計達到了創紀錄的31%。這充分肯定了他們目前工廠生產的優質產品，我們將繼續根據市場需求進行生產。目前庫存狀況良好，因此我認為，隨著業務的推進，零售業務將與生產水準密切相關。

Got it. Thank you. And just on Parts with respect to this 18% margin that you've held I think for seven of the last eight quarters or somewhere close to that, do you feel like it is sustainable going forward? Because certainly you have been operating and performing at a little higher than you were two to three years ago.

明白了，謝謝。關於零件業務，你們過去八個季度中有七個季度都保持著18%左右的利潤率，您覺得這個利潤率未來能否持續？因為你們目前的營運和業績確實比兩三年前好一些。

Sure. And the team has done a great job with leveraging the operating infrastructure that we have in the Parts business. We've obviously added -- enhanced our parts distribution capabilities in the northwestern part of the US with the Renton facility. We will be adding some additional facilities in the coming future, all balanced to meet the market demand and ensure that our customers are getting the best support in the industry with keeping their trucks operating and on the road. So I think we will continue to see that level of performance.

當然。團隊在零件業務方面做得非常出色，充分利用了我們現有的營運基礎設施。顯然，倫頓工廠的落成增強了我們在美國西北部的零件配送能力。未來，我們還將增設一些其他設施，所有設施的建設都將兼顧市場需求，確保我們的客戶獲得業內最佳的支持，保障他們的卡車正常運作。因此，我認為我們將繼續保持這樣的業績水準。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Andy Casey, Wells Fargo.

安迪凱西，富國銀行。

Good afternoon and morning. It's afternoon here. Anyways, I'm wondering if I could pull some of the information that you usually put in the 10-Q a little bit forward. Could you comment on average selling prices in the truck segment? Was that negative again in this quarter? It had been for the first two quarters.

下午好/早安。現在是下午。我想問一下，能否提前了解您通常在10-Q表格中提供的一些資訊？能否談談卡車細分市場的平均售價？本季是否再次出現負成長？前兩季都是如此。

I think slightly. I think, yes, slightly negative. We are -- typically the average sales price of a truck in Europe is a little lower than the average sales price in North America, so mix has some impact on that.

我覺得略有影響。是的，略微負面。通常來說，歐洲卡車的平均售價略低於北美，所以產品組合會對價格產生一定影響。

Okay, thank you, Ron. And then if I look at the FINCO, and I'm splitting hairs a little bit, you have seen some really modest increases in the provisions for losses on receivables. I mean it's clearly not close to the levels of call it eight years ago or so. But what region is driving that modest increase, or is it just kind of spread all over the place?

好的，謝謝你，羅恩。然後，如果我看FINCO（財務資訊中心），我稍微吹毛求疵一下，你會發現應收帳款損失準備金的成長幅度非常小。我的意思是，這顯然遠不及八年前左右的水平。但是，是哪個地區推動了這種小幅成長呢？還是說這種成長分散在各個地區？

It's, as you said, it's very modest. The portfolio is performing excellently. That credit loss level is at historically low levels in a few customers in the oil and gas business, but that's the focus of it.

正如您所說，規模非常小。投資組合表現優異。在少數幾家石油和天然氣客戶中，信貸損失水準處於歷史低位，但這正是我們關注的重點。

Okay, thanks. And then just a clarification. I think, in your prepared remarks, you talked about sequential parts into the fourth quarter. What was that comment?

好的，謝謝。還有一個問題需要澄清。我想，您在準備的發言稿中提到了第四季的各個環節。您是怎麼說的？

I didn't really comment on that, but I think the fourth quarter -- we're looking at comparable revenue levels I think in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter.

我當時沒有對此發表評論，但我認為第四季度——我認為第四季度的收入水平與第三季度相比是相當的。

Okay. Thank you very much.

好的，非常感謝。

Timothy Thein, Citi.

提摩西‧泰恩，花旗集團。

Great, Ron, can you hear me now? Sorry about that earlier.

太好了，榮恩，現在能聽到我說話了嗎？剛才那邊有點問題，抱歉。

Just going back to the US and Canada, obviously, just given Peterbilt's position in the vocational market pretty well represented there, it looks as though your overall retail outlook a little bit more positive than some, but I'm just curious. As we hear from some of the big truckload companies here in the past day or two, it looks like they are pulling back on spending a bit more. So, I'm just curious if you could maybe slice your comments on the US and Canada more finely between trucks versus tractors for 2017 in terms of your expectations for the broader market.

回到美國和加拿大市場，顯然，鑑於彼得比爾特在專業卡車市場佔據著相當重要的地位，你們的整體零售前景似乎比一些人更樂觀。但我很好奇，過去一兩天我們從一些大型整車運輸公司了解到，他們似乎正在縮減開支。所以，我想請你們就2017年美國和加拿大卡車和牽引車市場，以及你們對整體市場的預期，更詳細地談談你們的看法。

This is Bob. I think we see a fairly comparable level of buy from both the vocational and the over-the-road customers in 2017 from 2016. Both Kenworth and Peterbilt have strong vocational presence. I think, combined, the Company is 35% to 40% market share in the vocational business, which has been very, very good for us over the last couple of years. But increasingly, the new Peterbilts and the new Kenworths are getting even more traction in some of the larger fleets, and so we are getting incremental kind of conquest purchases from customers. But on balance, we think that 2017 is going to look very, very comparable to 2016.

我是鮑伯。我認為2017年來自專業運輸和公路運輸客戶的採購量與2016年基本持平。肯沃斯和彼得比爾特在專業運輸領域都擁有強大的市場地位。我認為，公司在專業運輸業務中合計佔了35%到40%的市場份額，這在過去幾年對我們來說非常有利。但越來越多的彼得比爾特和肯沃斯新車型在一些大型車隊中越來越受歡迎，因此我們從客戶那裡獲得了一些新增訂單。但總的來說，我們認為2017年的情況將與2016年非常接近。

Okay, got it. And then just coming back to the question earlier on used values, can you comment on what -- maybe the MX has been out there long enough and, just given normal trade cycles, presumably you've got a little bit more volume to make a call -- or a little bit more visibility on it. Can you just give us some color in terms of how the trucks with the MX have been performing in the secondary markets?

好的，明白了。回到之前關於二手車價格的問題，您能否談談MX車型上市時間可能已經比較長了，考慮到正常的交易週期，想必現在交易量也比較大了，更容易做出判斷，或者說市場對它的表現有了更清晰的了解？能否具體介紹MX車型在二手車市場的表現？

So, we started to get those first trucks that we built in 2010, 2011 are now passing on to the second owner. And I think what we will see as time goes on is that the durability with the CGI steel that we use to build the head and block and just the rigorous testing that we put the engines through, that that will be reflected in the used prices over time as we move forward. So, we are very optimistic about how that will progress.

所以，我們2010年、2011年生產的第一批卡車現在開始陸續轉手給第二任車主。我認為隨著時間的推移，我們用於製造缸蓋和缸體的CGI鋼材的耐用性，以及我們對引擎進行的嚴格測試，最終都會體現在二手車價格上。因此，我們對未來的發展非常樂觀。

Okay, I appreciate the color. Thank you.

好的，我很喜歡這個顏色。謝謝。

Joel Tiss, BMO.

Joel Tiss，BMO。

How's it going? If you keep getting smarter every quarter, by 2019, you will be able to give us a single-point earnings forecasts. I wonder, in the Parts decline, if you can give us any color in the quarter, if it was more on the volume side or any pricing weakness or mix.

進展如何？如果你每季都能進步，到2019年，你就能給我們精確的獲利預測了。我想問一下，關於零件業務下滑，你能否具體說明一下，是銷量下降、價格疲軟還是產品組合問題導致的？

It's primarily -- it's all volume related, sort of the volume of shipments.

這主要──都與數量有關，也就是出貨量。

Okay. And then since so many questions are about sort of doubting your flat forecast for 2017, I just wonder if you can give us a couple of things that we should incorporate into our thinking around levers you can pull to show earnings resiliency in 2017 if things are a little worse than flat.

好的。既然這麼多問題都對您2017年持平的預測表示懷疑，我想請您提供一些建議，以便我們在考慮如何利用這些措施來展現2017年盈利的韌性，以防情況比持平略差。

Yes, we commented on it. We continue to make prudent investments in operating efficiency, both in our factories, warehouses, we continue to use more and more technology in our business processes, both in our factories the warehouses. We continue to use more and more technology in our business processes, in our factories, and continuing to provide new technology to our customers. So, we will just continue to make those investments. And if you look back at the history, we've got a history of delivering 5% to 7% efficiency gains over the long-term. And we will continue to make those kinds of investments as we move into 2017.

是的，我們已經就此發表了評論。我們將繼續在營運效率方面進行審慎的投資，包括工廠和倉庫。我們將繼續在業務流程中應用更多技術，包括工廠和倉庫。我們將繼續在業務流程和工廠中應用更多技術，並持續為客戶提供新技術。因此，我們將繼續進行這些投資。回顧歷史，我們長期以來一直保持著5%到7%的效率提升。進入2017年，我們將繼續進行此類投資。

Okay, great. Thank you so much.

好的，太好了。非常感謝。

Seth Weber, RBC.

Seth Weber，RBC。

Good morning. I just wanted to ask a bigger picture question. With the launch of the proprietary axle, should we think about that as the start of -- well, not the start, but kind of the next step in increased vertical integration? And can you talk about what your take rate expectations are for that product starting next year? Thank you.

早安.我想問一個更宏觀的問題。隨著自主研發車軸的推出，我們是否應該將其視為——嗯，不是說是開始，而是垂直整合程度提高的下一步？您能否談談您對該產品明年市場接受度的預期？謝謝。

We have a nice balance of vertical integration with some of our components, and great relationships with our suppliers in other areas, and I think we will continue with that balanced approach for this particular axle. If you look out probably a year or two down the road, this axle will probably be 30%, 40%, 50% of the axles that we put on our North American vehicles. And of course, the axles we put on DAF products are 100% PACCAR axles. So we have a combination of vertical and supplier provided. But more and more, much more of the supplier provided components are proprietary in that they are developed to work in a very efficient manner with the rest of our powertrain components. So, you will continue to see that trend as we move forward going with all of our suppliers.

我們在部分零件方面實現了良好的垂直整合，同時與其他領域的供應商保持良好的合作關係。我認為我們將繼續對這款車橋採取這種平衡的策略。展望未來一兩年，這款車橋可能會占到我們北美車輛所用車橋的30%、40%甚至50%。當然，我們用於DAF產品的車橋則100%來自PACCAR。因此，我們採用了垂直整合和供應商供貨相結合的方式。但越來越多的供應商提供的零件都具有專有性，因為它們是專門開發出來與我們動力總成其他零件高效配合使用的。因此，隨著我們與所有供應商的合作不斷推進，您將會看到這種趨勢的持續發展。

And just from kind of an initial ramp perspective, should we think about it as kind of margin neutral in 2017, and it takes a little while to hit critical mass, or should that be accretive from the get-go?

從最初的成長速度來看，我們應該認為它在 2017 年是利潤率中性的，需要一段時間才能達到臨界規模，還是應該從一開始就實現利潤成長？

I don't think it will be -- I don't think it will be a big factor in terms of margin performance.

我不認為這會——我不認為這會對利潤率表現產生重大影響。

Okay. Thank you very much.

好的，非常感謝。

Neil Frohnapple, Longbow Research.

Neil Frohnapple，Longbow Research。

Good morning guys. A quick follow-up to Andy's question. Within the Financial Services segment, the increase in the interest and other expense in the quarter, what can that be attributed to? It sounds like used truck prices maybe not so much. Anything else you can point to there?

各位早安。我快速跟進Andy的問題。在金融服務板塊，本季利息和其他費用增加，這主要歸因於什麼？聽起來好像跟二手卡車價格上漲關係不大。還有其他因素嗎？

A factor is the used truck pricing and reflecting that as adjustments to depreciation expense over time. So, as we have trucks return off lease, etc., that typically runs through the depreciation expense line. So that's one element of it. And then the rest of it is just the competitiveness of the market and the spread of interest earned and interest paid. So, that's the two elements of it.

其中一個因素是二手卡車的價格，以及隨之而來的折舊費用調整。例如，當卡車租賃到期歸還時，這些費用通常會計入折舊費用。這是其中一個因素。另一個因素則是市場競爭以及利息收入和利息支出之間的利差。以上就是兩個主要因素。

Okay. That's helpful. And then how are your inventory levels positioned at your used truck centers in North America? I was just curious if inventory levels are normal or higher than historical levels.

好的，這很有幫助。那麼，你們在北美的二手卡車中心的庫存水準如何？我只是好奇庫存水準是正常還是高於歷史水準。

I would say normal. And we are continuing to invest in our ability to support our used truck operations. As time has gone on, we deal with a lot more larger fleets. We are more heavily engaged in taking trade-ins with our customers, working with our dealers, and so we will continue to invest. We are probably going to open, by the end of the year, a new facility in the Chicago area and adding some additional capacity at our facility in Salt Lake City. So it's I would say normal at a higher level, just given the level of activity that we are seeing with trade-ins and operating lease activity.

我認為一切正常。我們也持續投資，以提升對二手卡車業務的支援能力。隨著時間的推移，我們服務的車隊規模越來越大。我們更積極地與客戶合作，接受他們的舊車置換，並與經銷商密切合作，因此我們將繼續加大投入。我們可能會在年底前在芝加哥地區開設一家新工廠，並擴大鹽湖城工廠的產能。鑑於目前舊車置換和經營租賃業務的活躍程度，我認為一切都達到了更高水準的正常狀態。

Thanks for the time.

感謝您抽出時間。

David Raso, Evercore ISI.

David Raso，Evercore ISI。

Good morning, good afternoon. The 5% sequential decline 3Q to 4Q, can you help us with that a little bit sequentially when it comes to Europe versus other versus US/Canada?

早安，下午好。關於第三季到第四季環比下降5%的問題，您能否幫我們分析歐洲、其他地區以及美國/加拿大之間的環比降幅？

Sure. It's lower operating leverage from a lower production level for the quarter, slight reduction in price realization in US and Canada because of the competitive market conditions, and a small impact from the movement of the pound versus the euro. The pound, while it's down, is certainly within a range that we've seen in the last near-term history. So, as time goes on, we will work through that and prices will adjust to a more normalized margin level going forward.

當然。本季產量下降導致營運槓桿降低，美國和加拿大市場因競爭激烈導致售價略為下降，英鎊兌歐元匯率波動也造成了一定影響。英鎊雖然下跌，但仍處於近期歷史波動範圍內。因此，隨著時間的推移，我們將逐步克服這些影響，價格也將調整至更正常的利潤率水準。

And just so I'm clear, that down 5%, that's a production number? Can I equate that to unit number as well? Just trying to work off of a down 5% sequentially, it should be a little over 33,000 units from what you --

為了確認一下，下降5%是指產量下降嗎？我能把它等同於銷售量嗎？我只是想根據環比下降5%來計算，根據您提供的數據，銷量應該略高於33000台——

That's correct.

沒錯。

But within that, is that sort of a Europe up 10%, North America or US/Canada down high teens with other doing their sequential normal --

但其中，歐洲經濟成長了10%，北美或美國/加拿大下降了十幾個百分點，而其他地區則以各自的正常順序成長——

Yes, I don't have the specific numbers, Dave, but definitely Europe will be up because of increased workdays, and we have the summer shutdown, so we have more workdays in the fourth quarter, plus a slightly higher build rate, and that will be offset by US and Canada.

是的，戴夫，我沒有具體數字，但歐洲肯定會增長，因為工作日增加，而且我們還有夏季停工期，所以第四季度工作日更多，加上生產速度略有提高，這將被美國和加拿大的增長所抵消。

And other usually having its usual fourth quarter --

其他一些通常也有第四季的——

I think will be pretty comparable to the third-quarter levels.

我認為應該與第三季的水平相當。

Okay. And then on the US/Canada outlook for 2017, I know it's an industry forecast, not yours. But when I think of the cadence through the year, when we think about retail sales have been running of late still down 20%, orders have been down, up 25%, 30%, the comps do ease, especially for the orders, in the spring. Can you take us through your thought process on the down 2%? Is it an industry order rates starting to turn positive by late spring? And it's sort of a unit sales kind of down high single-digit in the first half, up high single-digit in the second half, a little bit more than that? I'm just trying to think how back-half-loaded is it, but appreciating that the orders at some point you hope turn positive given the comps get easier call it April, May.

好的。關於2017年美國/加拿大的展望，我知道這是產業預測，並非您的預測。但當我回顧全年的走勢時，考慮到零售額近期持續下降20%，訂單量也出現下滑，有時上升25%或30%，尤其是訂單量，同比降幅在春季會有所緩解。能否解釋一下您對2%降幅的看法？這是否意味著產業訂單量會在春末開始回升？銷售方面，上半年會下降接近兩位數，下半年會上升接近兩位數，或略高於這個幅度？我只是想了解下半年的降幅有多大，但考慮到同比降幅會逐漸緩解，您也希望訂單量會在某個時間點轉正，例如四五月份。

Yes, I think all the OEMs have been building trucks out of the backlog throughout this year. And so I think you will see the convergence of order levels, retail sales, production, etc., at whatever the run rate will be. And I think our feeling is that, as we get past the first of the year, we will see some progression, given the economic assumptions about continued GDP growth, strong housing and automotive, and some return to industrial production growth.

是的，我認為今年所有汽車製造商都在努力完成積壓訂單的卡車生產。因此，我認為訂單量、零售量、產量等最終會趨於一致，無論目前的運行速度如何。而且我認為，隨著新年的臨近，鑑於我們對GDP持續成長、房地產和汽車市場強勁以及工業生產成長有所回升的經濟預期，我們預計情況會有所改善。

I'm not trying to pin you to a month. Should I take that to mean yes. I mean, just mathematically, the orders have turn positive at some point in 2017 to turn around the retail sales to be up or to be

我不是想把時間限制在某個月份。我該理解為「是」嗎？我的意思是，從數學角度來看，2017 年的某個時候訂單量肯定會轉正，從而扭轉零售額成長的局面。

down slightly for the year?

今年略有下降？

Oh, absolutely. Sure. Absolutely.

哦，當然。絕對的。

Helpful. Okay. Thank you.

很有幫助。好的。謝謝。

Mike Shlisky, Seaport Global.

Mike Shlisky，Seaport Global。

Good morning guys. So, I was wondering if you can give us your outlook for the Class 5 through 7 market for 2017. I know it's small for you, but would love to hear your color on how that's going and how it might turn out next year.

各位早安。我想請教各位，能否談談你們對2017年5至7級卡車市場的展望？我知道這對你們來說可能影響不大，但我很想聽聽你們的看法，看看這個市場目前的發展狀況以及明年的走勢。

It will be a comparable level to this year, probably somewhere in the 80,000 unit range.

銷量將與今年持平，可能在 8 萬台左右。

Okay, great. Could you also give us kind of your thoughts on how share is going in that region, in that size range, both this year, and if you have goals to grow that share next year in Class 5 through 7?

好的，太好了。您能否也談談您對該地區、該尺寸範圍內今年市場份額發展情況的看法，以及您明年在5至7級卡車領域是否有提升市場份額的目標？

Absolutely. If you look at PACCAR's performance over several years in the medium duty segment, we grow share in North America 0.5 point per year, and we would continue to expect that would be the case in 2017 as well.

當然。如果你看一下 PACCAR 在中型卡車領域過去幾年的表現，我們在北美的市佔率每年增長 0.5 個百分點，我們預計 2017 年的情況也會如此。

If you look at -- 2015 was a record year for medium duty truck deliveries for PACCAR, and we are going to be pretty close to that 2015 level for 2016, and so we are optimistic that we've got the products and the supporting network to make that growth continue.

如果你回顧一下——2015 年是 PACCAR 中型卡車交付量創紀錄的一年，而 2016 年的交付量將非常接近 2015 年的水平，因此我們樂觀地認為，我們擁有足夠的產品和配套網絡，可以繼續保持增長勢頭。

Fair enough guys. Thanks so much.

好吧，謝謝各位。

Mike Baudendistel, Stifel.

麥克鮑登迪斯特爾，斯蒂費爾。

Thank you. I just wanted to ask you on your European outlook of being down a little bit, I think some others are saying it's going to be flat, maybe up a little bit. And I just wanted to get some additional detail on what exactly is concerning you? Is it Brexit or certain other things?

謝謝。我只是想問您對歐洲經濟前景的看法，您認為經濟會略微下跌，而其他人則認為經濟會保持平穩，甚至可能略有上漲。我還想了解一下您具體擔心的是什麼？是英國脫歐，還是其他什麼事情？

At 260,000 to 290,000 trucks, that is an excellent truck market. We've probably taken a little bit of a conservative approach on the heels of 2016 being at 295,000, which is the best truck market since 2008. So, we hope that it would continue at the current pace, but we've been a bit conservative in terms of our projection for our outlook for next year.

26萬至29萬輛的卡車銷量，是一個非常不錯的市場。鑑於2016年卡車銷量達到29.5萬輛，創下自2008年以來的最佳紀錄，我們可能採取了略顯保守的預測策略。因此，我們希望銷售量能維持目前的成長速度，但我們對明年的市場前景預測也比較保守。

Great, thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

Joe O'Dea, Vertical Research.

Joe O'Dea，Vertical Research。

My first question just on market share in US and Canada, you noted the 31% in the quarter, I think earlier in the year talked a little bit about larger share capture in order activity. So it seems like, over the past few years, market share has been pretty stable. Do you see some momentum building? As you're looking into 2017, do you think that step is a little bit higher?

我的第一個問題是關於美國和加拿大的市場份額。您提到本季市佔率為31%，我記得年初的時候您也提到過訂單活動方面市佔率的提升。所以看起來，過去幾年市佔率一直相當穩定。您認為目前是否有成長動能？展望2017年，您認為市佔率會進一步提升嗎？

Yes, if you look at history, when I started with the Company, we were a 21% player and we sort of went up to a new plateau at 25%, and now we are at 28%, 29%. Peterbilt and Kenworth continue to introduce additional configurations around their 2.1 meter platform. Peterbilt just launched their model 520 for the low-cab forward market. We just introduced enhanced axle and engine components that will enhance the performance of the vehicle. So, we continue to increment the product lineup and we will continue to do that as we have done for 20 years, and we think that will lead to continued share growth over the long-term.

是的，回顧歷史，我剛加入公司時，我們的市佔率是21%，後來上升到25%，達到了一個新的穩定水平，現在更是達到了28%、29%。彼得比爾特和肯沃斯持續在其2.1米平台的基礎上推出更多配置。彼得比爾特剛剛面向低駕駛室前置卡車市場推出了520車型。我們也推出了增強型車橋和引擎零件，這將提升車輛的性能。因此，我們不斷豐富產品線，並將像過去20年一樣繼續這樣做，我們相信這將有助於我們在長期內持續成長市場份額。

A relatively steady market share history over the last couple of years needs to be placed in the context of an oil and gas business that hasn't been generating any truck sales. And we've typically been fairly strong in that segment. So, we are offsetting that loss with some of the new wins that Ron talked about.

過去幾年相對穩定的市場份額需要放在石油和天然氣行業卡車銷量停滯不前的背景下看待。而我們通常在卡車領域表現相當強勁。因此，正如羅恩所提到的，我們正在透過一些新的業務成長來彌補這一損失。

That's a helpful point. Thank you. And just a clarification on the proprietary axle. I think, Ron, it sounded like, from your comments, you were talking about some supplier partnerships, and it sounds like this is that case. This isn't taking something from DAF and bringing it over. This is something that was co-developed and will be manufactured in North America and then supplied to you. Is that how this things works?

這一點很有幫助，謝謝。關於專有車軸，我還需要澄清一下。羅恩，從你之前的發言來看，你似乎在談論一些供應商合作關係，現在看來確實如此。這並不是直接從DAF引進產品，而是雙方共同研發，將在北美生產，然後供應給你們。是這樣嗎？

That's exactly right.

完全正確。

Okay. And so is it -- in terms of the opportunity for you, you talked about it's not really a margin impact. It sounds like it drives more traffic into your dealers, and then there's the obvious benefit of that.

好的。所以，就你所說的機會而言，它對利潤率的影響不大。聽起來它能為你的經銷商帶來更多客流量，這顯然也是個好處。

Yes, there's definitely a competitive advantage that comes with this proprietary axle and the integration of it with the rest of the elements of the powertrain, so lighter weight axle, better fuel economy, yes.

是的，這種專有車軸及其與動力總成其他部件的整合確實具有競爭優勢，例如更輕的車軸重量和更好的燃油經濟性。

Okay. Thanks a lot.

好的，非常感謝。

Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

Scott Group，Wolfe Research。

Thanks. Good afternoon guys. So, I had a question. With the share gains that you guys are seeing, are you seeing any noticeable shift of large, larger fleets versus owner operators, and is that something that we should be thinking about that has an impact on gross margins going forward?

謝謝。各位下午好。我有個問題。鑑於你們目前的市佔率成長，你們是否觀察到大型車隊與自營車隊之間出現了明顯的平衡變化？這種變化是否會影響未來的毛利率？

I think we've been active in all elements of the market for many years. And we are conquesting new customers all the time, but our product is very competitive. With the fleets and the excellent operating efficiency of our vehicle, the higher residual value, there's a lot of elements that make our products very attractive not only to large fleets, but small and medium-size customers as well. So, a great product lineup, great performance continue to demand 10% to 15% difference in terms of residual value versus the competitive products.

我認為多年來我們一直活躍於市場的各個領域。我們一直在不斷拓展新客戶，但我們的產品極具競爭力。憑藉車隊優勢、卓越的車輛營運效率以及更高的殘值，我們的產品不僅對大型車隊極具吸引力，對中小型客戶也是如此。因此，強大的產品陣容和卓越的性能，使得我們的殘值比競爭產品高出10%到15%。

Are you seeing a mix shift within your split between the two?

你是否發現兩者之間的比例改變了？

I think we've seen that over the last five, six, seven years. More and more of our volume is with the medium and larger fleets.

我認為過去五、六七年裡我們已經看到了這一點。我們的業務量越來越來自中型和大型車隊。

Okay.

好的。

That mix gives us the opportunity to get more looks at the parts business than we would maybe with owner operator customers. It also gives us more looks on the Financial Services business. So, that mix shift is a positive thing for us as well.

這種組合讓我們有機會更了解零件業務，這或許比我們以往服務於自營客戶時更多。同時，它也讓我們更了解金融服務業務。因此，這種組合轉變對我們來說也是一件好事。

Sure.

當然。

Got you. Okay.

明白了。好的。

The margin performance over the last five, six years, as we've transitioned, it's been excellent.

過去五、六年，隨著我們轉型，利潤率表現一直非常出色。

Okay. Can you just comment? So, your view on gross margin kind of holding steady from the fourth-quarter level next year, what are you assuming for your Class 8 share and the percent of the engines that you're doing on your own?

好的。能簡單說幾句嗎？您認為明年毛利率將與第四季度持平，那麼您對8級卡車市場份額以及您自主生產的引擎比例有何預期？

Well, you know, we typically will assume a share and penetration comparable to the current levels, and we will continue to put in actions to enhance both of those as we progress throughout the year.

嗯，你知道，我們通常會假設市場份額和滲透率與當前水平相當，並且我們將繼續採取措施，在今年內逐步提高這兩個指標。

The engine share will be comparable to slightly positive compared to this year, probably in that 50% range.

引擎份額將與今年持平或略有增長，可能在 50% 左右。

Okay, great. And then just the last thing quickly, so nice kind of a reduction in SG&A this quarter from second quarter. Is that a good run rate going forward, or is there a little bit more that you guys can take out there?

好的，太好了。最後再快速問一個問題，本季銷售、管理及行政費用較第二季下降，這個降幅不錯。這樣的降幅是否符合預期，還是說你們還能再進一步降低一些？

I think if you average -- take the average spending for the year, I think that's pretty indicative of our level of SG&A spending.

我認為，如果取平均值——取全年平均支出，我認為這就能很好地反映出我們的銷售、一般及行政費用水準。

Okay. Thank you guys. I appreciate it.

好的，謝謝大家，非常感謝。

Kwame Webb, Morningstar.

Kwame Webb，晨星公司。

I just want to do a longer-term question. So, over the last decade, your market share is up almost 1000 basis points. You guys have always been known as sort of this premium product with a low total ownership cost. You've made significant inroads into the fleet market. Do you, at any point, think that your competition kind of gets it and they are trying to mimic that business model at some point, or that product proposition at some point?

我想問一個更長遠的問題。過去十年，你們的市佔率成長了近1000個基點。你們一直以低總擁有成本的高端產品而聞名，並且在車隊市場取得了顯著進展。您是否認為，您的競爭對手已經意識到這一點，並試圖在某個階段模仿您們的商業模式或產品定位？

And then the second question is how do you think about competing against maybe that potential change in strategy?

那麼第二個問題是，你如何看待應對這種潛在的策略變化所帶來的挑戰？

I can't speak for our competition. I know what our focus is, and you laid it out pretty well. It's a focus on providing the highest quality products, low operating cost, premium value for our customers, excellent support with aftermarket parts and Financial Services. And that continues to be our focus for the near, mid- and long-term, and we will continue to make investments to build on that. And we will compete toe to toe with our competitors, whatever their approach may be.

我無法代表我們的競爭對手發言。我知道我們的重點是什麼，您也已經闡述得很清楚了。我們的重點是提供最高品質的產品、最低的營運成本、為客戶提供卓越的價值，以及完善的售後配件和金融服務支援。這將繼續是我們近期、中期和長期的重點，我們將繼續增加投資，鞏固和發展這些優勢。無論競爭對手採取何種策略，我們都將與他們正面競爭。

And then just the follow-up here. So, clearly, your scales increased. You launched the MX engine four years ago, axles today. Should we start to think about increased vertical integration becoming a much larger part of the story going forward?

然後，我想追問一下。很明顯，你們的規模擴大了。四年前你們推出了MX發動機，現在又推出了車軸。我們是否應該開始考慮，垂直整合程度的提升將在未來的發展中扮演更重要的角色？

As I mentioned earlier, it's a balance of vertical integration and supplier provided proprietary components. And so I think that's the approach that we'll continue to apply as we move forward. And you will see more, as time goes on, you will see more branded PACCAR components, because they are unique to integrate with our vehicle and our powertrain.

正如我之前提到的，關鍵在於垂直整合和供應商提供的專有零件之間的平衡。因此，我認為我們將繼續沿用這種策略。隨著時間的推移，您會看到更多帶有 PACCAR 品牌標識的零件，因為它們是專為與我們的車輛和動力系統整合而設計的。

Great. Thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

Barry Haimes, Sage Asset Management.

Barry Haimes，Sage資產管理公司。

Thanks very much. I had two questions. First one real quick. Since Brexit, have you had to put in a price increase to offset the FX headwind? And if so, about how much might that have been?

非常感謝。我有兩個問題。第一個問題很簡單。自英國脫歐以來，您是否需要漲價來抵銷匯率波動的影響？如果需要，大概提價了多少？

And the second question is kind of following on David Raso's question about orders in 2017 and when they might inflect. Can they start to inflect upwards, given where used truck prices are now, given that it seems like people are, or at least a lot of customers, are upside down on trades, or do we need a certain amount of price increasing used to kind of get you to that better order result? And if so, maybe how much would you have to come up to kind of put people back in vans? Thanks so much.

第二個問題其實是接著David Raso關於2017年訂單量及其何時可能出現轉捩點的問題提出的。鑑於目前二手卡車的價格，以及似乎很多人（或至少很多客戶）在以舊換新時都處於虧損狀態，訂單量是否會開始回升？或者我們需要一定程度的價格上漲才能帶來更好的訂單結果？如果需要提價，價格需要上漲多少才能讓人們重新選擇廂型車？非常感謝。

So, as I mentioned before, the pound moves up and down over time and pricing adjusts to reflect that. All of the OEMs predominantly have their production on the continent. We are very fortunate in that we are the only UK truck maker, so we have a bit of a natural hedge with respect to UK costs and prices. So, we will adjust pricing as the market needs to adjust to earn a fair return on our trucks over time.

正如我之前提到的，英鎊匯率會隨著時間波動，價格也會跟著調整。所有汽車製造商的生產主要都在歐洲大陸。我們很幸運，因為我們是英國唯一的卡車製造商，所以我們在應對英國的成本和價格方面有一定的天然優勢。因此，我們會根據市場需求調整價格，以確保我們的卡車能夠長期獲得合理的利潤。

With the respect to used truck pricing, I think, as we progress through next year, customers are keeping their trucks perhaps a little bit longer. At some point, though, the value intersects with the current market and they will be back in the market at some point to reinvest in the equipment. The equipment new has such attractive operating efficiencies with lower fuel consumption, better operating efficiency, the reliability and durability of the products are outstanding, so you have to upgrade at some point to take advantage of those features that are on the newer products.

關於二手卡車的價格，我認為，隨著我們進入明年，客戶可能會延長卡車的使用壽命。但最終，其價值會與當前市場行情相符，他們遲早會再次進入市場，對設備進行升級改造。新設備具有極具吸引力的營運效率，油耗更低，運作效率更高，產品的可靠性和耐用性也十分出色，因此，為了享受新產品帶來的這些優勢，您遲早都需要升級換代。

Great. Thanks so much. I appreciate the color.

太好了，非常感謝。我很喜歡這個顏色。

There are no other questions in the queue at this time. Are there any additional remarks from the Company?

目前隊列中沒有其他問題。公司還有其他補充說明嗎？

We'd like to thank everyone for their participation, and thank you, operator.

感謝大家的參與，也感謝操作員。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes PACCAR's earnings call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，PACCAR的財報電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。您可以斷開連線了。