帕卡 (PCAR) 2017 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to PACCAR's Third Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Today's call is being recorded, and if anyone has an objection, they should disconnect at this time.

早安，歡迎參加 PACCAR 2017 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）今天的通話正在錄音，如有任何異議，請立即掛斷電話。

I would now like to introduce Mr. Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. Mr. Hastings, please go ahead.

現在我謹向大家介紹 PACCAR 的投資者關係總監 Ken Hastings 先生。哈斯廷斯先生，請繼續。

Good morning. We would like to welcome those listening by phone and those on the webcast. My name is Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. And joining me this morning are Ron Armstrong, Chief Executive Officer; Harrie Schippers, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Michael Barkley, Senior Vice President and Controller.

早安.我們歡迎透過電話收聽的聽眾和透過網路直播收聽的聽眾。我是肯‧黑斯廷斯，PACCAR公司的投資人關係總監。今天早上和我一起出席的有：執行長 Ron Armstrong；執行副總裁兼財務長 Harrie Schippers；以及高級副總裁兼財務總監 Michael Barkley。

As with prior conference calls, we ask that any members of the media on the line participate in a listen-only mode. Certain information presented today will be forward-looking and involve risks and uncertainties, including general economic and competitive conditions, that may affect expected results.

與以往的電話會議一樣，我們要求所有參與電話會議的媒體成員以只聽模式參與。今天公佈的某些資訊屬於前瞻性訊息，涉及風險和不確定性，包括可能影響預期結果的總體經濟和競爭狀況。

I would now like to introduce Ron Armstrong.

現在我來介紹羅恩·阿姆斯特朗。

Good morning. PACCAR achieved excellent revenues and earnings for the third quarter of 2017. PACCAR's third quarter sales and Financial Services revenues were $5.1 billion, and third quarter income was $403 million, a strong 8% after-tax return on revenues.

早安.PACCAR在2017年第三季取得了優異的營收和利潤。PACCAR 第三季銷售額和金融服務收入為 51 億美元，第三季獲利為 4.03 億美元，稅後營收報酬率高達 8%。

PACCAR achieved excellent Truck, Parts and Other gross margins of 14.5%, driven by growing Kenworth and Peterbilt market share in North America, a robust European truck market and record aftermarket parts results. Kenworth and Peterbilt's year-to-date Class 8 market share in the U.S. and Canada was 30.1%, more than 2 percentage points higher than in the same period last year. DAF is currently producing trucks at a record -- at record build rates in its Eindhoven factory. I'm very proud of our 25,000 employees who have delivered the world's highest quality trucks, parts and financial services to our customers worldwide.

PACCAR 的卡車、零件及其他業務毛利率高達 14.5%，這得益於 Kenworth 和 Peterbilt 在北美市場份額的增長、歐洲卡車市場的強勁表現以及售後零件業務的創紀錄業績。今年迄今，肯沃斯和彼得比爾特在美國和加拿大的 8 級卡車市佔率為 30.1%，比去年同期高出 2 個百分點以上。DAF目前在其埃因霍溫工廠以創紀錄的速度生產卡車。我為我們25,000名員工感到非常自豪，他們為全球客戶提供了世界上最高品質的卡車、零件和金融服務。

PACCAR delivered 40,200 trucks during the third quarter, 2% higher than the second quarter. Increased build rates in North America, Australia and Brazil were partially offset by fewer build days in Europe due to the regular summer shutdown. Next quarter, we're expecting 7% to 9% higher deliveries compared to the third quarter due to increased production in Europe. Deliveries will be slightly lower in North America due to regularly scheduled holidays. Truck, Parts and Other gross margins in the fourth quarter are forecast to be down slightly from the third quarter due to a higher mix of truck sales compared to parts.

PACCAR 第三季交付了 40,200 輛卡車，比第二季增加了 2%。北美、澳洲和巴西的建築速度加快，但歐洲由於夏季例行停工導致建築天數減少，部分抵消了這一增長。由於歐洲產能增加，我們預計下一季的交付量將比第三季成長 7% 至 9%。由於北美地區有法定假日，因此該地區的配送量會略有下降。由於卡車銷售佔比高於零件銷售佔比，預計第四季卡車、零件及其他產品的毛利率將比第三季略有下降。

The U.S. economy is expanding 2% to 2.5% this year. We expect U.S. housing starts will grow to 1.2 million units, and the automotive industry will deliver nearly 17 million vehicles. We've raised our estimate of retail sales for this year's U.S. and Canadian Class 8 truck market to a range of 210,000 to 220,000 units. For 2018, economists are forecasting continued GDP growth of 2% to 3%, an increase in housing starts of 7% and another strong year of auto sales. Industrial production is also expected to expand 2% to 3% next year. We head toward 2018 with positive momentum in the U.S. economy and the truck industry. We estimate U.S. and Canadian Class 8 truck industry retail sales will increase to a range of 220,000 to 250,000 units in 2018.

今年美國經濟成長率為2%至2.5%。我們預計美國新屋開工量將增加至 120 萬套，汽車業將交付近 1,700 萬輛汽車。我們已將今年美國和加拿大 8 級卡車市場的零售銷售預期上調至 21 萬至 22 萬輛。經濟學家預測，2018 年 GDP 將持續成長 2% 至 3%，房屋開工量將成長 7%，汽車銷售也將迎來另一個強勁的年份。預計明年工業生產也將成長2%至3%。美國經濟和卡車產業都保持著積極的發展勢頭，我們正朝著 2018 年邁進。我們估計，2018 年美國和加拿大 8 級卡車產業的零售銷售將增加到 22 萬至 25 萬輛。

We've raised our 2017 forecast for Europe's greater than 16-tonne market to a range of 300,000 to 310,000 units, reflecting continued strong demand and a growing economy. The eurozone's GDP growth expectation for this year is 2.1%, with 2018 projected at a similar level. Freight transport activity on German highways is at record levels, up 4% this year. We expect that 2018 European truck heavy -- European heavy truck market to have another excellent year in a range of 280,000 to 310,000 units.

我們已將 2017 年歐洲 16 噸以上卡車市場的預測值上調至 30 萬至 31 萬輛，這反映了持續強勁的需求和不斷增長的經濟。歐元區今年的GDP成長預期為2.1%，預計2018年也將維持類似水準。德國高速公路的貨運活動達到歷史最高水平，今年成長了 4%。我們預計 2018 年歐洲重型卡車市場將迎來另一個輝煌的年份，銷售量將在 28 萬至 31 萬輛之間。

PACCAR's Parts business generated record quarterly revenues of $840 million. Parts quarterly pretax income was a record $153 million, with an excellent pretax return on revenue of 18.2%. The growing number of PACCAR trucks and engines in operation and increased sales of TRP All Makes parts drove these results. We're pleased to have opened the 100th TRP store during the quarter. TRP stores expand PACCAR's aftermarket opportunity by selling more parts to the second and third owners of All Makes of trucks.

PACCAR的零件業務創造了創紀錄的季度收入，達到8.4億美元。零件業務季度稅前收入創下 1.53 億美元的紀錄，稅前收入回報率高達 18.2%。PACCAR 卡車和引擎投入營運的數量不斷增加，以及 TRP All Makes 零件銷售量的成長推動了這些結果的取得。我們很高興在本季度開設了第 100 家 TRP 門市。TRP 商店透過向所有品牌卡車的第二任和第三任車主銷售更多零件，擴大了 PACCAR 的售後市場機會。

PACCAR Financial Services third quarter pretax income increased 13% to $71 million compared to $63 million in the second quarter this year. The portfolio, which was a record $13.1 billion this quarter, continued to perform very well. U.S. Class 8 industry used truck sales volumes increased during the quarter. Kenworth and Peterbilt truck resale values continue to command a 10% to 20% premium over competitors' vehicles.

PACCAR金融服務公司第三季稅前營收成長13%，達到7,100萬美元，今年第二季為6,300萬美元。該投資組合本季規模達到創紀錄的 131 億美元，並持續表現良好。本季美國8級二手卡車銷量成長。Kenworth 和 Peterbilt 卡車的轉售價格仍然比競爭對手的車輛高出 10% 到 20%。

PACCAR is increasing its investments in delivering new products and technologies as reflected in the recent introduction of the new PACCAR automated transmission, the new DAF XF and CF vocational trucks and new DAF LF vehicles. We estimate capital spending of $400 million to $450 million and R&D expenses of $260 million to $270 million this year.

PACCAR 正在增加對新產品和新技術的投資，這體現在最近推出的 PACCAR 新型自動變速箱、DAF 新型 XF 和 CF 專用卡車以及 DAF 新型 LF 車輛上。我們預計今年的資本支出為 4 億至 4.5 億美元，研發支出為 2.6 億至 2.7 億美元。

In 2018, we're planning for increased capital investments of $425 million to $475 million and increased R&D expenses of $270 million to $300 million. These investments will enhance PACCAR's integrated powertrain, deliver advanced driver assistance and truck connectivity technologies and add additional capacity and efficiency to the company's manufacturing and parts distribution facilities.

2018 年，我們計劃增加 4.25 億美元至 4.75 億美元的資本投資，並增加 2.7 億美元至 3 億美元的研發支出。這些投資將增強 PACCAR 的整合動力系統，提供先進的駕駛輔助和卡車互聯技術，並為公司的製造和零件分銷設施增加額外的產能和效率。

To expand our technology and industry leadership, PACCAR is investing in technologies that may take several years to commercialize. A current example of our advanced driver assistance systems investments is a truck platooning trial that begins early next year in the U.K.

為了擴大我們的技術和產業領先地位，PACCAR 正在投資一些可能需要數年時間才能商業化的技術。目前，我們在先進駕駛輔助系統方面的投資案例之一是將於明年初在英國開始的卡車編隊行駛測試。

PACCAR is also a leader in alternative powertrains. Kenworth and Peterbilt are market leaders in the North American natural gas truck segment, and we're currently testing electric powertrains at PACCAR trucks as well. While we think it will be some time before electric trucks become a sizable segment of annual industry sales, there could be an opportunity in certain applications in the medium term. PACCAR knows from experience that customers adopt technology when it provides a financial return for their businesses or is mandated by government regulations. Our focus is to always offer transportation solutions with industry-leading technologies that maximize our customers' operating efficiency.

PACCAR在替代動力系統領域也處於領先地位。Kenworth 和 Peterbilt 是北美天然氣卡車的市場領導者，我們目前也在 PACCAR 卡車上測試電動動力系統。雖然我們認為電動卡車要成為年度行業銷售額中相當大的一部分還需要一段時間，但在中期內，某些應用領域可能會出現機會。PACCAR 從經驗中得知，當技術能夠為企業帶來經濟回報或政府法規強制要求時，客戶才會採用該技術。我們始終致力於提供採用業界領先技術的運輸解決方案，以最大限度地提高客戶的營運效率。

Thank you. I'd be pleased to answer your questions.

謝謝。我很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question will come from the line of Jerry Revich of Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題將來自高盛的傑裡·雷維奇。

I'm wondering if you could talk about the expanded product lineup that you folks are delivering in Europe. How should we think about the production learning curve for you folks? Any productivity changes that we should be thinking about? And the overall margin profile of the product line as you ramp it through the factories, anything we should keep in mind for the sequential margin outlook?

我想請您談談貴公司在歐洲推出的不斷擴充的產品線。我們該如何看待你們的生產學習曲線？我們應該考慮哪些提高生產力的措施？隨著產品線逐步進入工廠生產，其整體利潤率如何？在預測連續利潤率前景時，我們應該注意哪些方面？

No. The transition of production to the new CF, XF and soon the LF vehicles, that's all gone very well. So production ramp-up has gone without any challenges. And so we're moving into the next phase with the vocational trucks and getting ready to transition with the new LFs. So all that has gone very well. Yes, Harrie has some thoughts here. Just a second.

不。生產向新款 CF、XF 以及即將推出的 LF 車型過渡，一切進展順利。因此，產能提升過程進展順利，沒有遇到任何挑戰。因此，我們正在進入專用卡車的下一個階段，並準備過渡到新的LF。一切都很順利。是的，哈里對此有一些想法。稍等片刻。

The production started already in June. And like Ron said, the ramp-up had been pretty smooth. The trucks offer 7% better fuel economy and lots of other benefits for our customers and have been extremely well received.

生產工作早在六月就開始了。正如羅恩所說，啟動過程相當順利。這些卡車燃油效率提高了 7%，並為我們的客戶帶來了許多其他好處，並且受到了客戶的熱烈歡迎。

Yes.

是的。

Okay. And normally, when you folks do a new product rollout, there's typically a higher level of automation. And is that the case here as well from a manhours-per-unit standpoint that we should keep in mind?

好的。通常情況下，當你們推出新產品時，自動化程度會更高。從單位工時的角度來看，情況是否也如此，我們應該牢記這一點呢？

I think one of the great things that is just coming online is not necessarily tied to the launch of the new products, is the Westerlo cab paint shop, which does have the latest state-of-the-art paint robotic applications in the industry. So it's a fantastic plant. If you ever get a chance to go to Europe and visit DAF's facilities, that would be certainly be a stop because it does have state-of-the-art robotics and the quality and the finish of the products is great.

我認為即將投入使用的一項很棒的技術，雖然不一定與新產品的推出有關，那就是 Westerlo 駕駛室噴漆車間，它擁有業內最先進的噴漆機器人應用。所以它是一種很棒的植物。如果你有機會去歐洲參觀 DAF 的工廠，那絕對值得一去，因為它擁有最先進的機器人技術，而且產品品質和做工都非常出色。

And Ron, at the end of your prepared remarks, you mentioned electric truck is coming into focus for select applications. Can you talk about how we should be thinking about the margin profile for you folks on electric trucks versus diesel-powered trucks? Anything we should keep in mind? And then from a parts standpoint, I guess there's concern about wider maintenance intervals. And I'm wondering how are you folks thinking about possible offsets. And appreciating that it's a small market subset where that product would make sense, but just conceptually, if you could touch on that.

羅恩，在你準備好的發言稿結尾，你提到電動卡車在某些特定應用領域正逐漸成為焦點。您能否談談我們應該如何看待電動卡車與柴油卡車的利潤率差異？有什麼需要注意的嗎？從零件的角度來看，我想大家也擔心維修週期會變長。我想知道各位是如何考慮可能的補償措施的。我知道這只是一個小眾市場，該產品在這個市場中才有意義，但從概念上講，如果您能談談這一點就更好了。

Yes, Jerry. As I mentioned, I think that the commercialization of that is several years away, probably outside a reasonable planning window for any significant adoption. Battery packs are still very large, they're heavy, they're expensive. And so there's really -- while we need to be ready for that technology, the commercial viability of that has some ways to go. So I don't think that's going to be something that we're going to be factoring into thoughts about margins, et cetera, in the near term. I think it's a midterm technology that we'll see. And first, it will be in vehicles -- the smaller vehicles and vehicles that aren't in the mainstream like, say, port applications or refuse trucks, something like that.

是的，傑瑞。正如我之前提到的，我認為這項技術的商業化還需要幾年時間，可能超出了任何大規模應用的合理規劃窗口期。電池組仍然體積龐大、重量沉重、價格昂貴。所以，雖然我們需要為這項技術做好準備，但它的商業可行性還有很長的路要走。所以我認為，在短期內，我們不會將此因素納入對利潤率等方面的考量。我認為這是一項中期技術，我們會看到它得到應用。首先，它將應用於車輛——小型車輛和非主流車輛，例如港口應用車輛或垃圾車等。

Your next question will come from the line of Jamie Cook of Crédit Suisse.

你的下一個問題將來自瑞士信貸的傑米庫克。

I guess a couple of questions. You noted -- obviously, PACCAR historically has been -- is a company to sort of invest in technology for your customers. And you gave your R&D and CapEx outlook for '18. But given some of the changes in the truck industry, whether it's EV or platooning, autonomous, I mean, is that a potential headwind to margins, sort of this cycle in that we shouldn't think about you guys being able -- in the near term or at least in the next 12 to 24 months delivering sort of what we would view as a normalized incremental margin? And then if you could talk to what that normalized incremental margin would be. And then I guess my second question is on just what you're seeing -- I think there's some concern going into '18 on whether or not the big fleets do come in and actually start to order. So can you just talk about, when you think about '18, will the customer base be big fleets? Will it be more broad-based, vocational, small guys, big guys? Just sort of what you're hearing from the customers in the U.S.?

我想問幾個問題。您指出——顯然，PACCAR 從歷史上一直是一家致力於為客戶投資技術的公司。您也給了2018年的研發和資本支出展望。但考慮到卡車行業的一些變化，無論是電動車、車隊行駛還是自動駕駛，我的意思是，這是否會對利潤率構成潛在的不利因素，尤其是在本輪週期中，我們不應該認為你們能夠在短期內，或者至少在未來 12 到 24 個月內，實現我們認為正常的增量利潤？然後，如果您能談談這個標準化後的增量利潤率是多少就好了。那麼，我的第二個問題是關於你所看到的——我認為在 2018 年，人們有些擔心大型車隊是否會進來並真正開始訂購。那麼，您能否談談，在您展望 2018 年時，客戶群是否會是大型車隊？會是更廣泛地涵蓋、職業技能培訓、小型企業和大型企業嗎？你從美國客戶那裡聽到的回饋大概就是這樣嗎？

Okay. Let's talk about technology. Obviously, we're -- we've just opened our office in Silicon Valley. And so we have a lot of relationships before we opened the office, and we'll continue to build relationships for future technologies in the areas of connectivity, advanced driver assistance systems, including autonomous, electrification. All those things are things that we're involved with currently and will continue to be involved with. I don't see that will impact -- we are projecting that our R&D spend will go up somewhat next year, but in terms of gross margins, I don't see that being a factor in the near term at all. With respect to customers, the feedback from discussions with customers is, I think, pretty optimistic about their prospects, what they're seeing in terms of demand and, more recently, some favorable freight pricing. So what we're hearing from customers is generally positive, at least orders as high as last year. I think it will continue to be dominated by the on-highway fleet guys, but vocational is very good. There's lots of construction in certain parts of the country. And if there is an infrastructure plan that gets implemented, that will bode well for the demand for vocational trucks as we start next year as well.

好的。我們來聊聊科技吧。顯然，我們——我們剛剛在矽谷開設了辦事處。因此，在開設辦事處之前，我們已經建立了許多關係，我們將繼續在互聯、高級駕駛輔助系統（包括自動駕駛）和電氣化等領域建立未來技術領域的關係。這些都是我們目前正在參與並將繼續參與的事情。我不認為這會產生影響——我們預計明年的研發支出會略有增加，但就毛利率而言，我認為這在短期內根本不會是一個因素。就客戶而言，我認為，從與客戶的討論中得到的回饋是相當樂觀的，他們對前景、需求以及最近有利的貨運價格都持樂觀態度。因此，我們從客戶那裡聽到的回饋總體上是正面的，至少訂單量與去年持平。我認為公路運輸車隊從業人員仍將佔據主導地位，但職業培訓領域也非常好。該國某些地區正在進行大量建設。如果基礎設施計畫得以實施，那麼明年年初對專用卡車的需求也將是一個好兆頭。

Okay. So just to be clear though, the investment will not impact -- we should think about normalized incremental margins for PACCAR going forward?

好的。所以需要明確的是，這項投資不會產生影響——我們應該考慮 PACCAR 未來的正常化增量利潤率嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Your next question will come from the line of Ross Gilardi of Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

你的下一個問題將來自美國銀行美林證券的羅斯·吉拉迪。

Just a couple of questions. First, just on the finco and how it relates to used truck prices. I mean, used pricing seems to be firming a little bit. Do you think that translates into higher new equipment pricing anytime soon? I mean, there seems to be a lot of competition on new products out there. Or do we just sort of meander around this flattish pricing environment for new trucks for a while?

幾個問題。首先，我們來談談金融公司以及它與二手卡車價格的關係。我的意思是，二手車價格似乎略有趨於穩定。你認為這是否意味著新設備的價格很快就會上漲？我的意思是，現在市場上的新產品競爭非常激烈。或者我們是否要繼續在這種新卡車價格相對平穩的環境下徘徊一段時間？

I -- what we've seen is relatively steady pricing. And at this market level, I think that's what we're anticipating from a pricing standpoint. You're correct about the used truck market there. Prices are firming. And I think most of the -- our guys and the folks we talk with feel like these used truck prices have bottomed and are stabilizing and have some upside. We also -- on the used truck side, we're starting now to see more of our newer model trucks being returned off lease, so that's a positive sign that we'll see over the next 12 to 18 months.

我看到的是相對穩定的價格。就目前的市場水平而言，我認為從定價的角度來看，這就是我們所預期的。你說的那裡的二手卡車市場情況沒錯。價格趨於堅挺。而且我認為我們大多數人——包括我們交談過的人——都覺得二手卡車的價格已經觸底反彈，趨於穩定，並且還有一些上漲空間。在二手卡車方面，我們現在開始看到越來越多的新卡車從租賃期滿歸還，這是一個積極的信號，我們將在未來 12 到 18 個月內看到這種情況。

Got it. And then just on Parts, I mean, your longer-term growth rate, I think you would agree, is closer to kind of mid-single digits, maybe 6%. And you've clearly been running well ahead of that this year. Do you think you see a slowdown in 2018? Or does it feel like this above-trend growth in Parts will continue for at least a couple more quarters?

知道了。就零件而言，我的意思是，我想你會同意，你的長期成長率更接近個位數中段，可能是 6%。顯然，你今年的表現已經遠遠超出了預期。你認為2018年經濟成長會放緩嗎？或者，零件業務這種高於平均水準的成長動能是否至少還會持續數季？

For now, we're thinking that next year is somewhere in the 3% to 5% range for Parts revenue growth for next year, but we'll see how it develops. Obviously, the demand is there. We're continuing to add dealer location. Our team has got great programs and really making it easier all the time for our dealers and customers to do business with PACCAR Parts. We're adding distribution capability. We're just starting the construction of a new facility in Toronto, and we'll continue to increment our distribution capability in the coming months and years. So we feel good about the prospects. And right now, 3% to 5% is our thinking about next year globally.

目前，我們認為明年零件收入成長率將在 3% 到 5% 之間，但我們會看看情況如何發展。顯然，市場需求是存在的。我們正在繼續增加經銷商地點。我們的團隊擁有出色的項目，真正讓我們的經銷商和客戶更容易與 PACCAR Parts 開展業務。我們正在增加配送能力。我們剛開始在多倫多建造一座新設施，未來幾個月和幾年內，我們將繼續提升我們的分銷能力。所以我們對前景感到樂觀。目前，我們認為明年全球經濟成長率將達到 3% 至 5%。

Your next question will come from the line of Stephen Volkmann of Jefferies.

你的下一個問題將來自傑富瑞集團的史蒂芬‧沃克曼。

Just can we go back to pricing for a second? I mean, I'm curious because, historically, once we get above sort of mid-cycle in the U.S., we start to think about maybe having a little bit of opportunity to get a little price. And I guess I'm just not sure with all the new products and the competition and so forth. Do we still think that's potentially possible? Or is that not so much on the table?

我們能再回到定價問題上來嗎？我的意思是，我很好奇，因為從歷史上看，一旦美國經濟過了周期中期，我們就會開始考慮或許有機會以較低的價格買進一些股票。我想，面對這麼多新產品、競爭等等，我真的有點拿不定主意。我們仍然認為這有可能嗎？或者說，這根本不在考慮範圍？

I think as we sit here today, I mean, it's a great product to offer, but our -- we have competitors in the market. And so we're going to be able to earn what the customer is willing to pay. And so at this point, pricing feels like it's a pretty steady proposition in both Europe and North America.

我認為，就我們今天所處的位置而言，我的意思是，這是一個很棒的產品，但是——我們在市場上有競爭對手。因此，我們將能夠賺取客戶願意支付的價格。因此，目前看來，歐洲和北美的定價都相當穩定。

Okay, good. And then I think you mentioned gross margin's down slightly in the fourth quarter. Historically, if you look back, the SG&A sort of kicks up a little bit in the fourth quarter. I guess there's some year-end true-up things or not. Should we expect that this year as well? Is there any trend there to call out just as we think about the fourth quarter?

好的。然後我想您提到過，第四季度的毛利率略有下降。從歷史數據來看，銷售、一般及行政費用（SG&A）在第四季往往會略有上升。我猜可能有一些年終結算之類的事情要做。今年是否也會出現這種情況？在展望第四季之際，是否存在什麼值得關注的趨勢？

I think we're pretty sort of focused on the dollars. And so I would think the dollars will be pretty comparable to third quarter levels. So I don't see any significant increase in the fourth quarter.

我認為我們相當關注美元。所以我認為美元匯率將與第三季的水平相當。因此，我認為第四季度不會有任何顯著成長。

Your next question will come from the line of Ann Duignan of JPMorgan.

你的下一個問題將來自摩根大通的安·杜伊尼安。

Can you talk a little bit about 2018, your guidance? Can you just break out maybe the segments, the sleeper segment versus the Class 8 straight versus day cabs? Anything different by any segment that you're anticipating for 2018 versus '17?

您能談談2018年以及您的指導方針嗎？能否分別介紹一下各個細分市場，例如臥舖車廂細分市場、8級直行車廂細分市場和日間駕駛室細分市場？您對 2018 年與 2017 年相比，各個細分市場有哪些不同預期？

No, I'd say segment-wise, I think we anticipate similar mix of our sales to what we've seen in 2017, which is in Europe, DAF continues to be a leader -- industry leader in the tractor segment, continues to focus on growing their vocational volumes. And the new trucks that they've just launched will enhance their capability in that arena. And in North America, I think we'll see some -- we anticipate that the growth in the market will come in really all segments, both the on-highway as well as some vocational. So I don't see any particular segment mix or customer mix sort of affecting our sales next year.

不，就細分市場而言，我認為我們預計銷售組成將與 2017 年類似，在歐洲，DAF 仍然是拖拉機領域的領導者——行業領導者，並繼續專注於提高其專用車輛的銷量。他們剛推出的新型卡車將增強他們在該領域的能力。在北美，我認為我們會看到一些——我們預計市場成長將出現在所有細分市場，包括公路運輸和一些專用車輛。因此，我認為明年不會有任何特定的細分市場組合或客戶組合影響我們的銷售額。

Okay. I appreciate the color. That's helpful. And then you forecast U.S., Canada. Any difference U.S. versus Canada? And then do you have an outlook for Mexico so we can kind of square back to NAFTA?

好的。我喜歡這個顏色。那很有幫助。然後你預測美國和加拿大。美國和加拿大有什麼不同嗎？那麼，您對墨西哥的未來有何看法？這樣我們才能重新討論北美自由貿易協定（NAFTA）的問題。

Yes. So I think if you look at this year, U.S. is probably flat to maybe a little bit down year-over-year, but Canada has been -- has bounced back. The Canadian market this year is stronger than it was in 2016. I think next year, I think, we expect the U.S. will be the area where a lot of the growth will occur for U.S. and Canada. And Mexico, it should be another good year in Mexico, expect the market to be comparable. Election years in Mexico sometimes have a little bit of an uptick because of some of the stimulus that gets added to the economy. So that could be a potential upside for Mexico next year.

是的。所以我覺得，如果從今年的情況來看，美國經濟可能與去年持平，甚至略有下降，但加拿大經濟已經反彈。今年加拿大市場比 2016 年更強勁。我認為明年，我們預計美國將成為美國和加拿大經濟成長的主要地區。墨西哥市場今年應該又會是好年頭，預計市場表現將與去年持平。墨西哥的選舉年有時會出現小幅成長，因為政府會推出一些刺激經濟的措施。所以這可能是墨西哥明年的一個潛在利好因素。

Unless NAFTA is canceled, I presume?

除非北美自由貿易協定被取消，我猜是這樣吧？

Excuse me?

打擾一下？

Unless NAFTA is canceled?

除非北美自由貿易協定被取消？

Yes. Yes, that -- I don't have any perspective on that, other than I don't think that makes any sense, but ...

是的。是的，那個——我對此沒有任何看法，除了我覺得這完全說不通之外，但是…

Agreed. And then just on your -- the same kind of mix discussion, U.K. registration is down significantly this past month. Any change in mix there? Any perceived market share loss for DAF? Just U.K. slows, it's a decent market for DAF. If you could comment on that for 2018, that would be great.

同意。然後，就你剛才提到的那種混合討論而言，英國的註冊人數在過去一個月中大幅下降。混合物方面有什麼變化嗎？DAF的市佔率是否有所下降？如果英國市場放緩，對達夫汽車來說，英國還是一個不錯的市場。如果您能就 2018 年的情況發表一些評論，那就太好了。

Yes. Harrie's got some thoughts on that.

是的。哈里對此有一些想法。

So Ann, if we look at the U.K. market for us, registrations year-to-date are exactly the same as they were last year. Market share is up 0.1%. We're above 30% market share, still continue to be market leaders in the U.K. And also orders year-to-date are at the same level as they were last year. So we haven't seen that softening in the U.K. that some people talked about.

所以安，如果我們看一下英國市場，今年迄今為止的註冊量與去年完全相同。市佔率上升了0.1%。我們的市佔率超過30%，仍然是英國市場的領導者。而且，今年迄今的訂單量與去年持平。所以，我們並沒有看到一些人所說的英國經濟出現疲軟的跡象。

So orders flat year-to-date despite just last month's anomaly, then registration is down 20%?

儘管上個月出現了異常情況，但今年迄今的訂單量仍與去年同期持平，那麼註冊量卻下降了 20%？

Year-to-date it is flat. In the month of September, it was a little bit lower, but year-to-date, it's at the same level as it was last year. So September is always a big month with new license plates, so we got some fluctuations in that month typically. But year-to-date, we're at the same level.

今年迄今為止，該數據持平。9 月略有下降，但今年迄今為止，與去年同期水平持平。所以九月通常是新車牌發放的大月，因此我們通常會在這個月看到一些波動。但就今年迄今為止的情況來看，我們處於同一水平。

Your next question will come from the line of Seth Weber of RBC Capital Markets.

你的下一個問題將來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的賽斯韋伯。

I guess a similar question to what Ann just asked. I'm trying to back into your 7% to 9% delivery growth sequentially 4Q versus 3Q. And it seems to imply a pretty strong ramp -- well, it does imply a strong ramp in Europe. I mean, are there market share gains that are embedded in that number for the fourth quarter versus the third quarter? I'm just trying to figure out how to get to that 7% to 9% growth sequentially.

我想這個問題和安剛才問的類似。我正在嘗試反推您關於第四季度與第三季度相比，交付量環比增長 7% 至 9% 的說法。這似乎意味著強勁的成長勢頭——至少在歐洲是如此。我的意思是，第四季與第三季相比，市場佔有率的成長是否體現在這個數字中？我只是想弄清楚如何逐步實現 7% 到 9% 的成長率。

Yes, Seth. The big thing is that DAF has a 2-week shutdown during the third quarter, and plus they're building on basically a single shift during a couple weeks before and after that shutdown period. So -- and they're building about 1,000 trucks a week, so that really is the big, big element. And DAF has increased their production somewhat for the fourth quarter. So the combination of those is really -- the really big effect is the absence of the shutdown days from the third quarter.

是的，塞思。最重要的是，DAF 在第三季有 2 週的停產，而且在停產前後幾週，他們基本上只靠一個班次進行生產。所以——他們每週生產大約 1000 輛卡車，所以這才是真正非常重要的因素。DAF第四季的產量增加。因此，這些因素結合起來，真正產生巨大影響的是第三季沒有停工日。

But it looks like it's going to be up year-over-year as well pretty nicely.

但看起來它今年的年增幅也會相當不錯。

Yes, I think it will be. Probably 10% or so would be my guess.

是的，我想會的。我猜大概是10%左右吧。

Right, okay. And is that share gains? I mean I don't think the market is up that much though, right?

好的。那是指股價上漲嗎？我的意思是，我覺得市場漲幅應該不大，對吧？

Yes. So one of the things that has been beneficial for DAF is the fact that there's more sales this year outside of Europe, the European truck registration market. So you look at what we're selling into Russia, selling into the Indian region and South America, into Australia, into Africa, so all those things have supplemented DAF's build rate during the course of this year.

是的。對 DAF 有利的一件事是，今年在歐洲以外，尤其是歐洲卡車註冊市場，銷量有所成長。所以，看看我們銷往俄羅斯、印度地區、南美、澳洲、非洲的產品，所有這些產品都在今年提升了 DAF 的生產效率。

Okay, that's helpful. I appreciate that. And then just a follow-up question. I think people are trying to kind of get at this, but maybe just coupling together some of the questions that have been asked about for next year for pricing and mix and whatnot, incremental margins. I mean, is it fair -- in this area where volumes are up next year, would you expect gross margin to be up next year?

好的，這很有幫助。我很感激。然後還有一個後續問題。我認為大家都在試著弄清楚這一點，但也許只是把一些關於明年定價、產品組合、增量利潤等方面的問題結合起來考慮一下。我的意思是，在這個銷售明年將會成長的地區，你認為毛利率明年也會成長嗎？這樣公平嗎？

I -- right now, I guess I would say I expect gross margin for next year to be comparable to what we're seeing in 2017 at the market size estimates we've provided. I would say that if you look at the build rates for DAF and Peterbilt and Kenworth where they're currently at, if you -- if those build rates were able to be sustained for all of next year, we probably -- the markets would probably be at the upper end of our estimates that we've provided for 2018.

就目前而言，我認為明年毛利率應該與 2017 年在我們提供的市場規模估算中看到的毛利率相當。我想說，如果你看看 DAF、Peterbilt 和 Kenworth 目前的生產速度，如果這些生產速度能夠持續到明年，那麼市場可能會達到我們對 2018 年預測的上限。

Okay. So something in the kind of mid-14%, I think your...

好的。所以大概是14%左右，我覺得你的…

Yes, mid-14%, yes, plus or minus.

是的，大約在 14% 左右，是的，上下浮動一點。

Your next question will come from the line of Joel Tiss of BMO Capital Markets.

你的下一個問題將來自 BMO 資本市場的 Joel Tiss。

I wonder, is there -- maybe you can fuzz it up for the whole industry. But is there expected to be another increment to fuel efficiency as we go into 2019?

我想知道，有沒有辦法——也許可以把它模糊化，讓整個產業都受益。但隨著我們進入 2019 年，燃油效率預計還會進一步提高嗎？

Well, I think a big increase in fuel efficiency came with the engines that were launched this year. So DAF, 7% was a combination of fuel efficiency gains from the engine as well as aerodynamics of the enhanced vehicle features. And Peterbilt and Kenworth had a 4%, 5% increase at the beginning of this year with the model year '17 engine. So the next big increment, I think, will be in the 2020, 2021 time frame as we continue on the path of working on the 2021 greenhouse gas regulations. But there -- there'll be ongoing increments each year as we have to get certified each year and we continue to make investments in the capability of our hardware. But even more importantly the capability of our software. So we're investing a lot more in our company today in software capability, software development for engine programming, truck control units and the integration of all that into a solid system. So that's where you're going to see some of the gains in the coming years, is that continuous improvement in the integration of all elements of the truck and the powertrain.

我認為今年推出的引擎極大地提高了燃油效率。因此，DAF 的 7% 的提升是引擎燃油效率提高以及車輛性能增強帶來的空氣動力學優勢共同作用的結果。今年年初，彼得比爾特和肯沃斯卡車搭載 2017 年發動機，價格分別上漲了 4% 和 5%。因此，我認為下一個重大進展將在 2020 年、2021 年期間實現，因為我們將繼續推進 2021 年溫室氣體排放法規的製定工作。但是，每年都會有持續的改進，因為我們每年都需要獲得認證，而且我們會繼續投資提升硬體的效能。但更重要的是我們軟體的功能。因此，我們現在對公司的軟體能力、引擎編程軟體開發、卡車控制單元以及將所有這些整合到一個可靠的系統中投入了更多資金。因此，未來幾年你將會看到一些進步，那就是卡車和動力系統所有零件整合度的不斷提高。

And then your share -- your market share of orders seems to be running noticeably ahead of your reported market share, your market share of deliveries. And is that -- I guess that's not enough to get you to be a little closer to where kind of industry forecasts are for 2018. Do you still think it's prudent to be on the conservative side?

然後，你的市場份額——你的訂單市場份額似乎明顯領先於你報告的市場份額，也就是你的交付市場份額。而這——我想這還不足以讓你更接近 2018 年的產業預測。你仍然認為採取保守立場是明智的嗎？

Yes. I think we're reasonably conservative at this point. And we'll see if -- we haven't started the year and we're trying to predict what next year is going to be. I think we feel confident it will be a better year. And we'll see, as the year goes on, how it progresses.

是的。我認為我們目前的態度相當保守。我們拭目以待——新年還沒開始，我們就在試著預測明年會是什麼樣子。我認為我們有信心今年會更好。隨著時間的推移，我們將拭​​目以待，看看事態如何發展。

Your next question will come from the line of Nicole DeBlase of Deutsche Bank.

你的下一個問題將來自德意志銀行的妮可·德布萊斯。

So my first question is just around Brazil, what you're seeing there and I guess the expectation for that region as we move into 2018.

所以我的第一個問題是關於巴西的，你在那裡看到了什麼，以及你對該地區進入 2018 年的預期。

Well, our team was just at the Fenatran truck show last week. And I would say the optimism of the industry and our team is good as we enter 2018. We've seen an increased quoting activity in the market. We've increased our build rates as we've progressed through this year, and we'll start next year at even higher build rates. So the market is recovering. We just launched a new truck for heavy haul applications in agricultural industry. And so that is going to give us some additional product capability in the market. So we're pretty bullish about what the near term looks like for Brazil in terms of being on the road to recovery and taking advantage of that and continuing to grow our share in that market.

嗯，我們團隊上週剛參加了Fenatran卡車展。我認為，進入 2018 年，整個產業和我們團隊都保持著樂觀態度。我們看到市場上的報價活動增加。今年以來，我們的建設速度不斷加快，明年我們將以更高的建設速度起步。所以市場正在復甦。我們剛剛推出了一款適用於農業領域重型運輸的新型卡車。因此，這將使我們在市場上擁有額外的產品競爭力。因此，我們對巴西近期的前景相當樂觀，認為巴西正在走向復甦，我們將利用這一機遇，繼續擴大我們在該市場的份額。

Okay. That's helpful. And then just thinking about material costs. How much of a headwind was that to your truck margins this quarter? And how do you think about the headwind to material costs into next year since commodity costs have continued to move higher?

好的。那很有幫助。然後還要考慮材料成本。這對你們本季的卡車業務利潤率造成了多大的不利影響？鑑於大宗商品價格持續上漲，您如何看待明年材料成本上漲的不利影響？

Yes. It's been a bit of a headwind. Last year, we enjoyed some benefits, a bit of a tailwind, if you will. And this year has been a bit of a headwind. But I don't see -- I see next year -- again, it's not a significant effect. We do have the long-term agreements with our customers -- our suppliers, excuse me, that allow us to work those in ratably and work those into our pricing into the market. So I don't see it being a significant item as we go into next year.

是的。遇到了一些阻力。去年，我們享受了一些好處，可以說是順風而已。今年確實遇到了一些逆風。但我認為——我認為明年——同樣，這不會產生顯著影響。我們與客戶（抱歉，應該是供應商）簽訂了長期協議，這使我們能夠按比例將這些成本納入市場定價。所以我認為它不會成為明年一個重要議題。

Your next question will come from the line of Andy Casey of Wells Fargo Securities.

你的下一個問題將來自富國證券的安迪凱西。

Can you talk about the engine penetration in North America? Did that remain stable? Or did it improve?

能談談發動機在北美的普及情況嗎？情況一直維持穩定嗎？情況有改善嗎？

It's actually down just slightly. And when you compare our penetration this year to last year, we have a -- we offer our customers the PACCAR option and the Cummins option. Cummins is a great, great partner of ours. And so it really depends a lot on who's ordering at a particular given time. So -- but we continue to enjoy great success with the engine. It's very well received by the customers, and we continue to work on getting increased penetration. So I'd say just down slightly a little bit this year compared to last year.

實際上只略微下降了一點。如果將我們今年的市場滲透率與去年進行比較，我們會發現——我們為客戶提供 PACCAR 選擇和康明斯選擇。康明斯是我們非常棒的合作夥伴。所以，這很大程度取決於特定時間是誰在點餐。所以——但我們的引擎繼續取得了巨大的成功。該產品深受顧客歡迎，我們將持續努力提高市場滲透率。所以我覺得今年比去年稍微下降了一點。

Okay. And then within the Financial Services segment, provisions appeared to come down a little bit sequentially, and that's good. I'm just wondering what drove the improvement. And was there any regional concentration behind that?

好的。然後，在金融服務領域，撥備似乎比去年同期略有下降，這是好事。我只是想知道是什麼促成了這種進步。這背後是否存在某種地域性集中現象？

Andy, that portfolio is performing great and has for really since the -- post 2010. And so any movement in those provisions is -- typically has to do with the amount of the assets that we have. But the amount of actual credit losses that we're seeing are pretty isolated. And there's no indication that the customers' ability to pay is going to be affected anytime soon with pretty robust transportation markets in all the markets where we're doing financing at this point.

安迪，那個投資組合表現非常出色，而且自 2010 年以來一直如此。因此，這些條款的任何變動——通常都與我們擁有的資產數量有關。但我們目前看到的實際信貸損失數量相當零星。目前來看，在我們開展融資業務的所有市場中，運輸市場都相當強勁，沒有任何跡象顯示客戶的支付能力會在短期內受到影響。

Okay, Ron. And then just an industry question specific to North America. I'm just wondering if you've seen any irrational price discounting going on given one of your competitors has a stated goal of trying to recover some share that they've lost over the years.

好的，羅恩。然後是一個專門針對北美產業的提問。我只是想知道，鑑於你的一個競爭對手明確表示要努力奪回多年來失去的部分市場份額，你是否發現任何不合理的降價行為。

No, I don't think we've seen that. Our -- we've been able to -- we have a great value proposition for our customers' with our products, with the aftermarket support that we provide, with parts and really supporting the uptime of our customers, great financing product. So I think the total package -- I mean we still are able to earn a premium with the quality of all the things that we provide our customers. So we've not seen anything -- there's always the isolated instance or isolated deal or somebody may do something that you scratch your head about, but that's no general trend.

不，我想我們還沒有看到這種情況。我們一直以來都能夠為客戶提供極具價值的產品、售後支援、零件供應以及真正支援客戶正常運作時間的優質融資產品。所以我認為，從整體來看——我的意思是，我們仍然能夠憑藉我們為客戶提供的所有產品和服務的品質來獲得溢價。所以，我們還沒有看到任何跡象——總是會有一些孤立事件或孤立交易，或者有人可能會做一些讓你百思不得其解的事情，但這並不是一種普遍趨勢。

Your next question will come from the line of David Raso of Evercore ISI.

你的下一個問題將來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Raso。

Quick question. I know you don't run the company for the stock, and the stock kind of broke out off that 60s range. Now we're in the 70s. But I am trying to reconcile -- are we saying next year there's no operating leverage? I'm just trying to reconcile -- look, obviously, with the earnings power here, the idea is, as we get a little further in the cycle, you get some price-cost to your benefit, you get some leverage and we can be talking about $5 of earnings next year, on its way to maybe $5.50-plus. But when there's no operating leverage, that puts a lot of pressure on the U.S., Canadian market, just given the European market is at a high historical level. And I'm just trying to make sure we leave this call understanding you're comfortable saying next year gross margins are similar to this year. I mean, why is there no operating leverage in the model at all? Is it again costs going up for technology and so forth? Just so we're on the same page. I'm a little disappointed that your gross margin's similar next year as this year.

問個問題。我知道你經營公司不是為了股票，而且股票價格已經突破了 60 美元的區間。現在我們進入70年代了。但我正在努力理解──我們是不是在說明年就沒有經營槓桿了？我只是想調和一下——顯然，就目前的盈利能力而言，隨著週期進一步推進，價格成本會對你有利，你會獲得一些槓桿效應，我們明年就可以談論 5 美元的收益，並有可能達到 5.50 美元以上。但是，如果沒有經營槓桿，鑑於歐洲市場處於歷史高位，這將給美國和加拿大市場帶來很大的壓力。我只是想確保我們結束這通通話時，您能夠肯定地說，明年的毛利率與今年類似。我的意思是，為什麼這個模型中完全沒有經營槓桿？是科技等方面的成本又要漲了？為了確保我們理解一致。我對你們明年的毛利率與今年相近感到有些失望。

Yes. I think that's our current assessment. I mean, there's obviously some upside potential as we progress through the year. We'll see how that develops. So right now, we're thinking 14.5%, plus or minus, from there. And so the factories -- we've made some great investments. The factories are operating very efficiently. And we'll see how pricing develops during the course of the year. So I think somewhere between that 14% to 15% range is sort of where we think things will develop as we progress.

是的。我認為這是我們目前的評估。我的意思是，隨著時間的推移，顯然存在一些上漲潛力。我們拭目以待事態發展。所以目前，我們認為這個數字上下浮動14.5%。所以，工廠方面——我們進行了一些非常棒的投資。工廠運作效率非常高。我們將觀察價格在這一年的走勢。所以我認為，隨著事態發展，我們認為最終的數值會在 14% 到 15% 之間。

I mean, given the lead times and so forth. And I -- look I appreciate competitive dynamics. But in your backlog today, how far does your U.S., Canadian business project out orders already on hand? How many months into next year? And is the pricing better in that backlog than we were shipping over the last, say, 6 months?

我的意思是，考慮到交貨時間等等因素。而且──我欣賞競爭的動態。但是，就您目前的積壓訂單而言，您的美國和加拿大業務預計有多少訂單是手頭上已有的？明年是幾月？那麼，積壓訂單中的產品定價是否比我們過去六個月左右的出貨價格更優惠呢？

No. Typically, the extended backlog is longer-term buyers, fleet buyers. And so what fills in, in the shorter term is the stocking trucks, the smaller customers. And so order -- the margins in the backlog are generally consistent with what we're building currently.

不。通常情況下，積壓訂單較多的客戶是長期買家或車隊買家。因此，短期內填補空缺的就是貨車和小客戶。因此，訂單的進度—待辦事項中的進度通常與我們目前正在開發的內容一致。

Your next question will come from the line of David Leiker of Robert W. Baird.

你的下一個問題將來自羅伯特·W·貝爾德的戴維·萊克爾的血統。

A couple of things. I had another gross profit margin question but a little bit different. I know -- you made some comments early on about the -- I believe it's about the gross profit margin in Q3. I'm just curious with the revenue gains -- and maybe this is tied to what David was just saying, with the revenue gains you saw in this quarter, that didn't really drive any gross margin profit improvement.

有幾件事。我還有一個關於毛利率的問題，但情況略有不同。我知道——你之前發表過一些評論——我相信是關於第三季的毛利率。我只是對營收成長感到好奇——也許這與大衛剛才所說的有關，本季營收的成長並沒有真正帶來毛利率的提高。

So you're talking about compared to the third quarter of last year?

所以你指的是跟去年第三季相比？

Last year, yes. Revenues are up 20%, and gross profit's down 20 basis points.

是的，去年是這樣。營收成長20%，毛利下降20個基點。

Yes. So I think there, you've got the higher mix of trucks. You do have a bit of material cost headwind, and we continue to see some of the currency impacts with the British pound versus the euro and the Mexican peso. So those are just things that impact the margins, but we continue to work through those. And the opportunities for us to continue to grow the business, continue to generate good returns for our shareholders, we see those as -- continue to be consistent with what we've achieved in the past with respect to incremental margin.

是的。所以我覺得那裡的卡車比例比較高。你們確實面臨一些材料成本的不利因素，而且我們繼續看到英鎊兌歐元和墨西哥比索匯率波動帶來的影響。所以這些都只是影響利潤率的因素，但我們會繼續努力解決這些問題。而我們持續發展業務、持續為股東創造良好回報的機會，我們認為──在利潤率成長方面，要與我們過去所取得的成就一致。

Yes. I knew you mentioned it earlier. I've missed it so thanks for catching me up on that. On the aftermarket, with the TRP brand, obviously, you're growing faster there than what the market's growing. Where do you think those share gains are coming from?

是的。我知道你之前提到過這件事。我錯過了這件事，謝謝你告訴我。在售後市場，TRP品牌的成長速度顯然比市場整體成長速度更快。你認為這些市場佔有率的成長來自哪裡？

I would guess they're coming from warehouse distributors, would be where I would think we get most of our upside with our TRP brand and the ability to service and have greater access to second and third owners of really All Makes of trucks.

我猜想它們來自倉庫分銷商，我認為我們的 TRP 品牌的大部分優勢都來自於此，我們能夠為各種品牌卡車的第二任和第三任車主提供服務，並能更好地接觸到他們。

And do you think those are coming from other private labels or from branded products?

你認為這些損失是來自其他自有品牌還是品牌產品？

I mean, obviously, it's -- whatever the warehouse distributor -- they're distributing, there are some private labels and vendor stuff. And so we're getting better access to that customer base than what we've had previously when you're just going through the Peterbilt or Kenworth or DAF dealer network.

我的意思是，很明顯，無論倉庫經銷商分銷什麼，其中既有一些自有品牌產品，也有一些供應商產品。因此，與以前透過 Peterbilt、Kenworth 或 DAF 經銷商網路相比，我們現在能夠更好地接觸到客戶群。

Yes. And then just one last here. As we look -- thanks for the insight into next year. We've had a pretty strong market here or pretty high volumes. Do you have any -- what are the signs? What are you watching, the signposts that this market's getting too long in the tooth and you start to batten down a little bit and hunker down for tough times ahead? What are those signs that you'd be looking for?

是的。最後，就剩最後一個了。展望未來—感謝您對明年的展望。我們這裡的市場非常強勁，交易量也相當高。你有任何症狀嗎？ ——有哪些症狀？你在關注什麼？是市場開始走下坡路，你開始有所收斂，為即將到來的艱難時期做好準備的跡象嗎？你會留意哪些跡象？

Well, I mean, just ongoing discussions with customers, with dealers and order activity is the sign that tells us how things are going. And so order activity is in line with the market estimates that we've provided.

嗯，我的意思是，與客戶、經銷商的持續溝通以及訂單狀況，就是能夠告訴我們事情進展如何的指標。因此，訂單活動與我們提供的市場預測相符。

Your next question will come from the line of Steven Fisher of UBS.

你的下一個問題將來自瑞銀集團的史蒂文費雪。

Could you just give us some color on levels of used inventories on the PACCAR lots or stores that were opened in last year or so to deal with the excess used inventories that we're starting to build up?

能否簡單介紹一下 PACCAR 旗下各停車場或商店的二手車庫存水準？這些停車場或商店是去年左右為了處理我們開始累積的過剩二手車庫存而開設的。

Yes. So our used truck inventory has declined progressively throughout this year. And so as we end the third quarter, we're at our lowest level of used trucks that we've had. So we're well positioned with a good level of inventory to sell into the market, both out of our retail sales locations as well as through our dealers. So we're right where we feel we need to be with respect to used truck inventories.

是的。因此，今年以來我們的二手卡車庫存一直在逐步下降。因此，第三季末，我們的二手卡車數量達到了歷史最低水準。因此，我們擁有充足的庫存，可以透過我們的零售店和經銷商向市場銷售產品，處於有利地位。所以，就二手卡車庫存而言，我們目前的情況正是我們認為應該達到的水平。

Okay, great. And then can you just talk some more about the mix in parts margin this quarter? I would have thought that the margins would have been helped by the volumes that you had. I don't know if there's any particular drag from opening more stores and if you get a better margin once you have that expansion.

好的，太好了。那麼，您能否再詳細談談本季零件利潤率的組成情況？我以為你們的銷量會對利潤率有幫助。我不知道開設更多門市是否會帶來什麼特別的負面影響，也不知道擴張後是否能獲得更高的利潤率。

No, I think it's typically -- parts margins are typically driven by the mix of the product lines that we might sell during any given period, so proprietary versus vendor versus TRP versus PACCAR genuine. So there's lots of different levels of parts. And typically, the margin movement is affected more by mix than sales prices or material cost movement.

不，我認為通常是這樣——零件利潤率通常取決於我們在任何特定時期可能銷售的產品線的組合，例如自有品牌、供應商、TRP 和 PACCAR 原廠產品。所以零件有很多不同層次。通常情況下，利潤率變動受產品組合的影響比受銷售價格或原物料成本變動的影響更大。

So how is your mix this quarter relative to what it's been?

那麼，與之前幾季相比，你本季的產品組合如何？

I don't have any -- I don't have those figures in front of me, I'm sorry.

我沒有——我手頭上沒有這些數據，抱歉。

Your next question will come from the line of Rob Wertheimer of Melius Research.

你的下一個問題將來自 Melius Research 的 Rob Wertheimer。

I had a question. I mean, I kind of agree with all your sentiments on the time frame on electrification of trucks, which obviously is going to take a number of years. I'm curious what your customers are telling you. As you're going out there and doing research and figuring out how urgently you need to think about developing products or whatever, are there segments -- I mean, is it only medium-duty customers that are interested? Or is it only ports where you've got restriction, obviously restrictions on emissions? Do you think that this is -- the long-haul stuff makes little sense to me, but maybe you're hearing it from them. So I'm just curious what portion of your customers in various segments are really interested in the developments?

我有個問題。我的意思是，我基本上同意你對卡車電氣化時間框架的看法，這顯然需要數年時間。我很想知道你的客戶都跟你說了些什麼。當你外出進行市場調查，並思考開發產品或其他事項的緊迫性時，是否存在細分市場——我的意思是，是否只有中等規模的客戶對此感興趣？或者說，只有港口才有限制，顯然是排放的限制？你覺得這是——那些長途旅行的事情對我來說沒什麼意義，但也許你是從他們那裡聽說的。所以我很好奇，在你們的各個細分市場中，有多少客戶真正對這些發展感興趣？

I think all segments are interested. But I think when you look at the economic reality, the smaller the vehicle, the more likely that technology has application. So it's just going to be a while. There needs to be a breakthrough in battery technology for that really to be commercially viable for -- the higher up you go in the truck market. So I think everybody is interested. Everybody wants to know what we're doing, and we've got a lot of things that we're exploring. But the economic viability, as it stands today, it's -- like I say, it's more midterm than it is near term.

我認為所有群體都會感興趣。但我認為，從經濟現實的角度來看，車輛越小，這項技術就越有可能被應用。所以還需要一段時間。要真正實現商業可行性，電池技術必須取得突破——尤其是在卡車市場的高端領域。所以我覺得大家都很有興趣。每個人都想知道我們在做什麼，而我們有很多事情正在探索中。但就目前而言，其經濟可行性——就像我說的，更多的是中期問題，而不是短期問題。

Okay. And then could you give a quick update on Russia, which has been boom and bust and where you've had success in previous years?

好的。那麼，您能否簡單介紹一下俄羅斯的最新情況？俄羅斯經濟經歷了繁榮與衰退，而您在前幾年也取得了一些成功？

Good market. This year, DAF has been able to increase its share up on the 15% range from 11% or 12% in some of the prior years. We have good dealer representation, good support for the product. So it's a good market and one that we're taking advantage of as it currently sits.

市場行情不錯。今年，DAF 的市佔率已從前幾年的 11% 或 12% 提高到 15% 左右。我們擁有良好的經銷商網路和產品支援。所以這是一個很好的市場，我們正在充分利用它目前的狀況。

Does that need -- I mean, it's been so volatile. I mean does that -- could that stay high for another 2, 3 years? Or is there any signs of saturation? And maybe more broadly in Europe on used trucks or the flow of used trucks or however you guys measure it, because the trade cycles are a little bit different, does it still look healthy, not just orders but the -- those Eastern markets where some of the trucks go?

那需要嗎——我的意思是，情況一直很不穩定。我的意思是，這種情況──這種情況能再維持2到3年嗎？或者說，是否有飽和的跡象？或許更廣泛地說，在歐洲，關於二手卡車或二手卡車的流通情況，或者你們用什麼方式來衡量，因為貿易週期略有不同，它看起來是否仍然健康，不僅僅是訂單，還有——那些卡車去往的東方市場？

A market like Russia is a lot stronger this year than it was last year. Historically, it's still at pretty low level. It's not back to the levels where it was several years ago. And it's a market for Euro 5 trucks. Our DAF trucks performed very well there. The customers liked the quality, the fuel efficiency, and our share has grown from -- to a level of around 15% year-to-date in that market. So really, really good story there for DAF in Russia.

像俄羅斯這樣的市場，今年比去年強勁許多。從歷史數據來看，它仍然處於相當低的水平。目前還沒有恢復到幾年前的水準。這是一個面向歐5排放標準卡車的市場。我們的DAF卡車在那裡的表現非常出色。顧客們喜歡我們的產品品質和燃油效率，我們在該市場的份額已從——增長到今年迄今為止的約 15%。所以，對於DAF在俄羅斯的發展來說，這真是一個非常非常好的故事。

Great. And any comment at all on just how you think about, I guess it was asked before, cycle indicators on used trucks in Europe, whether we can stay up here at these healthy levels for a while longer, whether there's any hint of saturation in trucks being absorbed by the second buyers wherever they are?

偉大的。關於您如何看待歐洲二手卡車的週期指標，我想之前有人問過這個問題，您有什麼看法？我們能否在目前的健康水準上再維持一段時間？二手卡車市場是否已經出現飽和的跡象？

I mean, used truck market is pretty steady, I guess I'd say. Again, one of the positive aspects that DAF and PACCAR Financial in Europe will experience is the fact that starting next year and on for the coming years, that there'll be more and more of the Euro 6 product that will be coming back off lease, coming in on trades. And we'll have the newer models to sell in the used truck market. So overall demand at this point and pricing seems to be pretty steady.

我的意思是，二手卡車市場相當穩定。此外，DAF 和 PACCAR Financial 在歐洲將面臨的積極因素之一是，從明年開始，未來幾年，越來越多的 Euro 6 產品將結束租賃或透過置換進入市場。我們也會將較新的車型銷往二手卡車市場。因此，目前整體需求和價格似乎都相當穩定。

Your next question will come from the line of Mike Baudendistel of Stifel.

你的下一個問題將來自 Stifel 公司的 Mike Baudendistel。

With regard to your outlook for North America in 2018 and beyond, how do your thoughts on electronic logging device mandate play into that?

關於您對 2018 年及以後北美地區的展望，您對電子記錄設備強制令的看法會如何影響這項展望？

At this point, that's -- it's a lot more talk than there is actual impact, what we're seeing in the market. So that obviously goes into play in December. And so we'll see how it develops. But right now, it doesn't feel like it's a significant element in truck orders and truck buying decisions.

目前來看，更多的是空談，而不是實際的影響，我們在市場上看到的並非如此。所以這顯然會在12月發揮作用。所以，我們將拭​​目以待事態發展。但就目前而言，它似乎並不是卡車訂單和卡車購買決策中的重要因素。

Great. That's helpful. And then just one on Europe. It looks like the bottom end of your range for next year is below this year. I mean, it didn't seem like you've said anything that's negative about Europe so far in this call. I mean, what areas could concern you that could make Europe be down next year?

偉大的。那很有幫助。然後就只有一篇關於歐洲的文章。看來你明年的最低預算低於今年的預算。我的意思是，到目前為止，你在這通電話中似乎還沒有說過任何關於歐洲的負面言論。我的意思是，你認為哪些方面會導致歐洲明年經濟下滑？

There's no real areas of concern. I'd say, at this point, that the bottom end of our range is conservatism. As I mentioned previously, if we continued with our build rates as they currently sit at DAF and Peterbilt and Kenworth, the markets would be at the upper end of our estimate. So it really just -- the lower end just really reflects some conservatism.

沒有什麼真正令人擔憂的問題。我認為，就目前而言，我們範圍的下限是保守主義。正如我之前提到的，如果我們繼續保持 DAF、Peterbilt 和 Kenworth 目前的生產速度，市場價格將達到我們預估的上限。所以實際上，低端市場確實反映了一些保守主義。

Your next question will come from the line of Neil Frohnapple of Buckingham Research.

你的下一個問題將來自白金漢研究公司的尼爾·弗羅納普爾。

I think there was an earlier question on SG&A for the fourth quarter. But can you provide any granularity on the SG&A expense outlook for 2018 like you guys have done for R&D?

我認為之前有一個關於第四季度銷售、一般及行政費用的問題。但是，你們能否像對研發費用一樣，提供一些關於 2018 年銷售、管理及行政費用展望的詳細數據？

I think if you look at the -- probably the second half run rate for SG&A, we -- some of the effect in the second half has been there's just some little stronger currencies with respect to the euro, et cetera. So I think if you look at the second half run rate of SG&A, that's probably indicative of what we would expect for full year 2018 in terms of absolute dollars.

我認為，如果你看一下——可能是下半年的銷售、一般及行政費用運行率，我們——下半年的一些影響是，一些貨幣相對於歐元等貨幣走強。所以我認為，如果你看一下下半年的銷售、一般及行政費用運行率，這可能預示著我們對 2018 年全年絕對金額的​​預期。

Got it, okay. And then could you talk about what drove the acceleration of PACCAR Financial Services revenue growth in the quarter? And I guess as a follow-up to that, is that also good run rate views for 4Q and 2018?

明白了，好的。那麼，您能否談談是什麼推動了 PACCAR 金融服務公司本季的營收成長加速？那麼，作為後續問題，這是否也是對第四季和 2018 年的良好運行率預期呢？

So the revenue is just we have a bit of an increasing interest rate environment, we have higher assets and we had the higher mix of operating leases in our portfolio. So there's several things that impact that. As we think about next year, I -- right now, we anticipate that the portfolio will continue to perform well, that our customers will have good economic conditions in which to operate. And so credit losses will continue to be muted. Used truck values seem to have stabilized, and so I don't think we'll see any challenges on the used truck side. So as it sits here today, we feel good about our prospects for 2018 in the Financial Services arena .

所以，收入方面，我們面臨利率上升的環境，資產增加，而且我們的投資組合中經營租賃的比例也較高。所以有很多因素會影響這一點。展望明年，我們預期投資組合將持續表現良好，我們的客戶將擁有良好的經濟經營環境。因此，信貸損失將繼續保持溫和。二手卡車的價格似乎已經穩定下來，所以我認為二手卡車市場不會有任何挑戰。就目前情況而言，我們對 2018 年金融服務領域的前景感到樂觀。

And you have a follow-up question from the line of Steven Fisher of UBS.

瑞銀集團的史蒂文費雪還有一個後續問題。

Just wanted to clarify one thing. Would your operating leverage be more evident at the gross profit level or at the pretax profit level?

我只想澄清一件事。您的經營槓桿效應在毛利層面還是稅前利潤層面會更明顯？

Probably at the pretax profit level because we sort of manage our R&D and SG&A more to a fixed cost.

可能是在稅前利潤水準上，因為我們對研發和銷售、管理及行政費用的控制更加重視固定成本。

Right. So to -- right. So to kind of frame it as there's no operating leverage in the model as we think about next year, maybe more appropriate to think about the pretax level no matter how much fixed costs you have in your gross profit, but ...

正確的。所以——沒錯。因此，我們可以這樣理解：在考慮明年的業績時，模型中不存在經營槓桿效應，或許更恰當的做法是關注稅前水平，無論毛利潤中包含多少固定成本，但是…

It's going to depend on how the year progresses and how material costs develop. And we're well positioned. And at this point, again, I think margins would be in that 14% to 15%. And whether they're at the upper end or lower end of that range depends on a lot of factors that are to be determined.

這將取決於今年的發展以及材料成本的走勢。我們處於有利地位。而目前來看，我認為利潤率應該在 14% 到 15% 之間。而它們處於該範圍的上限還是下限，取決於許多有待確定的因素。

There are no other questions in the queue at this time. Are there any additional remarks from the company?

目前隊列中沒有其他問題。公司還有其他補充說明嗎？

We'd like to thank everyone for their participation, and thank you, operator.

感謝大家的參與，也感謝操作員。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes PACCAR's earnings call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，PACCAR的財報電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。