奧多明尼昂貨運 (ODFL) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Old Dominion Freight Line third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 Old Dominion Freight Line 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

（操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Jack Atkins, Director of Finance, Investor Relations.

我現在想將會議交給投資者關係財務總監傑克·阿特金斯 (Jack Atkins)。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you, operator.

謝謝你，接線生。

And good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

Welcome to the third-quarter 2024 conference call for Old Dominion Freight Line.

歡迎參加 Old Dominion Freight Line 2024 年第三季電話會議。

Today's call is being recorded and will be available for replay beginning today and through October 30, 2024, by dialing 1-877-344-7529, access code 4016991.

今天的通話正在錄音中，從今天開始直至 2024 年 10 月 30 日，可透過撥打 1-877-344-7529（接入碼 4016991）重播。

The replay of the webcast may also be accessed for 30 days at the company's website.

網路廣播的重播也可以在公司網站上觀看 30 天。

This conference call may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements, among others, regarding Old Dominion's expected financial and operating performance.

本次電話會議可能包含 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述，包括有關 Old Dominion 預期財務和經營業績的陳述等。

For this purpose, any statements made during this call that are not statements of historical fact may be deemed to be forward-looking statements.

為此目的，本次電話會議期間所做的任何非歷史事實陳述的陳述都可能被視為前瞻性陳述。

Without limiting the foregoing, the words believes, anticipates, plans, expects, and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements.

在不限制前述規定的情況下，「相信」、「預期」、「計劃」、「期望」和類似表達等詞語旨在識別前瞻性陳述。

You are hereby cautioned that these statements may be affected by the important factors among others set forth in Old Dominion's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission and in this morning's news release.

特此提醒您，這些陳述可能會受到 Old Dominion 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件以及今天上午的新聞稿中列出的重要因素的影響。

And consequently, actual operations and results may differ materially from the results discussed in the forward-looking statements.

因此，實際營運和結果可能與前瞻性陳述中討論的結果有重大差異。

The company undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise.

本公司不承擔因新資訊、未來事件或其他原因而公開更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

As a final note before we begin, we welcome your questions today but ask that you limit yourself to just one question at a time before returning to the queue.

作為我們開始之前的最後一點，我們歡迎您今天提出問題，但請您在返回隊列之前一次只回答一個問題。

At this time, for opening remarks, I would like to turn the conference over to Marty Freeman, the company's President and Chief Executive Officer.

現在，我想請公司總裁兼執行長馬蒂·弗里曼 (Marty Freeman) 致開幕詞。

Marty, please go ahead, sir.

馬蒂，請繼續，先生。

Good morning and welcome to our third-quarter conference call.

早上好，歡迎參加我們的第三季電話會議。

With me on the call today is Adam Satterfield, our CFO.

今天與我一起參加電話會議的是我們的財務長 Adam Satterfield。

After some brief remarks, we will be glad to take your questions.

簡短發言後，我們將很樂意回答您的問題。

I am joining the call today from a separate location.

我今天從另一個地點加入通話。

Therefore, please bear with us when we are taking questions if there are any connectivity issues.

因此，如果存在任何連接問題，請在我們回答問題時耐心等待。

Old Dominion's financial results in the third quarter reflect continued softness in the domestic economy.

Old Dominion 第三季的財務表現反映出國內經濟持續疲軟。

Our revenue and earnings per diluted share both declined on a year-over-year basis during the quarter, although our market share and volume trends remained relatively consistent with the first half of the year.

儘管我們的市佔率和銷售趨勢與上半年保持相對一致，但本季我們的營收和稀釋每股盈餘均較去年同期下降。

While the operating environment continued to be challenging, our team did a good job of managing our variable cost, and we also continued to control our discretionary spending.

儘管經營環境仍然充滿挑戰，但我們的團隊在管理變動成本方面做得很好，我們也繼續控制可自由支配支出。

The deleveraging effect from the decrease in revenue, however, caused many of our cost categories to increase as a percent of revenue.

然而，收入減少帶來的去槓桿化效應導致我們的許多成本類別佔收入的百分比增加。

This was the primary driver for the increase in our operating ratio to a 72.7% in the third quarter.

這是第三季我們的營運比率提高至 72.7% 的主要推動力。

We have been pleased with the consistency in our market share this year, which is consistent with our historical experience during slower parts of the economic cycle.

我們對今年市佔率的穩定性感到滿意，這與我們在經濟週期較慢階段的歷史經驗是一致的。

We continue to have strong customer retention trends, and we are also winning new business.

我們持續保持強勁的客戶保留趨勢，我們也正在贏得新業務。

Our customers simply have had fewer shipments that they can tender to us.

我們的客戶可以提供給我們的貨物量只是減少了。

And our average wait per shipment has also remained at historical lows.

我們每批貨物的平均等待時間也保持在歷史低點。

The stability of our market share continues to be supported by the quality of our service and overall value that we offer to our customers.

我們的服務品質和為客戶提供的整體價值繼續支持我們市場份額的穩定。

These are a few of the foundational elements of our long-term strategic plan.

這些是我們長期策略計劃的一些基本要素。

The OD family of employees continue to execute on these core principles during the third quarter as our on-time service was 99% and our cargo claims ratio was a 0.1%.

OD 員工家族在第三季繼續執行這些核心原則，我們的準時服務率為 99%，貨物索賠率為 0.1%。

While we are incredibly proud of these service statistics, we would also like to remind you that superior service means much more than simply picking up and delivering our customers' freight on time and claims free.

雖然我們對這些服務統計數據感到無比自豪，但我們也想提醒您，卓越的服務不僅僅意味著按時提貨和交付客戶的貨物並且無需索賠。

There are plenty of other attributes that shippers consider when selecting a carrier, such as carrier's trustworthiness, ease of doing business, and the quality and responsiveness of customer service representatives.

托運人在選擇承運人時也考慮許多其他屬性，例如承運人的可信度、開展業務的便利性以及客戶服務代表的品質和回應能力。

In fact, Mastio & Company measured 28 different service and value-related attributes as part of its recent annual survey of shipper and logistic professionals.

事實上，Mastio & Company 測量了 28 種不同的服務和價值相關屬性，作為其最近對托運人和物流專業人員進行的年度調查的一部分。

Mastio published the results of its 2024 study last week, and we were honored to be named the number one national LTL provider for the 15th consecutive year.

Mastio 上週發布了 2024 年研究結果，我們很榮幸連續 15 年被評為全國第一零擔運輸供應商。

OD finished number one in 23 of the 28 evaluated categories measured by Mastio and maintained a sizable lead against our competition when it comes to the overall quality of service.

在 Mastio 衡量的 28 個評估類別中，OD 在 23 個類別中排名第一，在整體服務品質方面相對於我們的競爭對手保持著相當大的領先優勢。

I would like to congratulate the entire OD family of employees on this remarkable achievement.

我謹祝賀 OD 全體員工取得這項非凡成就。

And I would also like to thank this outstanding team for their commitment to our company and our customers.

我還要感謝這個傑出的團隊對我們公司和客戶的承諾。

We continue to believe that consistency and quality of our service over the long term has differentiated Old Dominion in the marketplace and driven our long-term profitable growth.

我們仍然相信，我們服務的長期一致性和品質使 Old Dominion 在市場上脫穎而出，並推動了我們的長期獲利成長。

While becoming the best carrier in the business was hard, remaining the best carrier for 15 straight years is an incredible accomplishment, and that is hard to put in perspective.

雖然成為業內最好的承運商很困難，但連續 15 年保持最佳承運商的地位是一項令人難以置信的成就，而且很難正確看待這一點。

Every member of the OD team has played a part in our success, and I can assure you that each of us is incredibly motivated to keep delivering our promises to provide our customers with the highest standard of service.

OD 團隊的每一位成員都為我們的成功做出了貢獻，我可以向您保證，我們每個人都非常積極地繼續履行我們的承諾，為客戶提供最高標準的服務。

By continuing to provide best-in-class service to our customers day after day and year after year, we are also able to maintain our long-term and disciplined approach to pricing.

透過日復一日、年復一年地繼續為客戶提供一流的服務，我們也能夠維持長期、嚴格的定價方法。

We continue to focus on consistently improving our yields to sufficiently offset our cost inflation and support additional investments in capacity and technology.

我們繼續專注於持續提高產量，以充分抵消成本通膨並支持產能和技術的額外投資。

These ongoing investments have created incremental value for our customers in many ways, which has further enhanced our industry-leading value proposition.

這些持續的投資以多種方式為我們的客戶創造了增量價值，這進一步增強了我們行業領先的價值主張。

Our customers have recognized our value proposition over time, which has allowed us to be able to earn more and more of their business.

隨著時間的推移，我們的客戶已經認可了我們的價值主張，這使我們能夠贏得越來越多的業務。

As a result, we have won more market share over the past 10 years than any carrier in our industry.

因此，我們在過去 10 年中贏得了比業內任何營運商都多的市場份額。

While the economic environment has remained sluggish for much longer than we ever anticipated, we believe we are better positioned than ever to respond to the eventual inflection and demand that will occur as the economy improves.

儘管經濟環境持續低迷的時間比我們預期的要長得多，但我們相信，我們比以往任何時候都更有能力應對隨著經濟改善而出現的最終變化和需求。

We have the capacity, the fleet, and most importantly, the committed team of people to take advantage of an improving economic environment.

我們有能力、有車隊，最重要的是，有忠誠的團隊來利用不斷改善的經濟環境。

Our unique company culture and each employee's commitment to excellence gives me tremendous confidence that we can also be the biggest market share winner over the next 10 years.

我們獨特的公司文化和每位員工對卓越的承諾讓我充滿信心，相信我們也能在未來 10 年內成為最大的市場份額贏家。

This confidence is bolstered by the results of the most recent Mastio study, as well as the ongoing conversations we have with our customers.

最近的 Mastio 研究結果以及我們與客戶的持續對話增強了這種信心。

By staying focused on long-term opportunities for additional profitable growth, we remain confident in our ability to create additional value for our shareholders.

透過專注於額外利潤成長的長期機會，我們對為股東創造額外價值的能力充滿信心。

Thank you for joining us on the call this morning, and now Adam will discuss our third quarter in greater detail.

感謝您今天早上參加我們的電話會議，現在亞當將更詳細地討論我們的第三季。

Thank you, Marty, and good morning.

謝謝你，馬蒂，早安。

Old Dominion's revenue totaled $1.47 billion for the third quarter of 2024, which was a 3.0% decrease from the prior year.

Old Dominion 2024 年第三季營收總計 14.7 億美元，較前一年下降 3.0%。

We had one extra workday in the third quarter of this year, so the decrease on a per-day basis was 4.5%.

今年第三季我們多了一個工作日，因此每天的減少量為 4.5%。

These revenue results reflect the 4.8% decrease in LTL tonnes per day that was partially offset by the 1.5% increase in LTL revenue per hundredweight.

這些收入結果反映出每天零擔噸數下降 4.8%，但每英擔零擔收入增加 1.5% 部分抵消了這一下降。

On a sequential basis, our revenue per day for the third quarter decreased 1.9% when compared to the second quarter of 2024, with LTL tonnes per day decreasing 3.2% and LTL shipments per day decreasing 1.0%.

與 2024 年第二季相比，我們第三季的每日營收季減 1.9%，每日零擔噸數下降 3.2%，每日零擔貨運量下降 1.0%。

For comparison, the 10-year average sequential change for these metrics includes an increase of 3.6% in revenue per day, an increase of 0.9% in LTL tonnes per day, and an increase of 2.3% in LTL shipments per day.

相較之下，這些指標的 10 年平均連續變化包括每日收入成長 3.6%、每日零擔噸數成長 0.9%、每日零擔貨運量成長 2.3%。

The monthly sequential changes in LTL tonnes per day during the third quarter were as follows.

第三季每日零擔噸數的月度環比變化如下。

July decreased 4.4% as compared to June, August decreased 0.8% as compared to July, and September increased 1.7% as compared to August.

7月較6月下降4.4%，8月較7月下降0.8%，9月份較8月份增加1.7%。

The 10-year average change for these respective months is a decrease of 2.9% in July, an increase of 0.6% in August, and an increase of 3.5% in September.

這些月份的 10 年平均變化是，7 月下降 2.9%，8 月增長 0.6%，9 月增長 3.5%。

For October, we expect our revenue per day will decrease by approximately 11.2% to 11.8% when compared to October 2023, with a decrease of approximately 9.2% to 9.8% in our LTL tonnes per day.

與 2023 年 10 月相比，我們預計 10 月的每日收入將減少約 11.2% 至 11.8%，每天的零擔噸數將減少約 9.2% 至 9.8%。

As usual, we will provide the actual revenue-related details for October in our third-quarter Form 10-Q.

像往常一樣，我們將在第三季的 10-Q 表格中提供 10 月份的實際收入相關詳細資訊。

Our operating ratio increased 210 basis points to 72.7% for the third quarter of 2024.

2024 年第三季度，我們的營運比率成長了 210 個基點，達到 72.7%。

As Marty mentioned, the decrease in our revenue had a de-leveraging effect on many of our operating expenses during the quarter.

正如馬蒂所提到的，我們收入的下降對本季我們的許多營運支出產生了去槓桿化影響。

This contributed to the 110-basis-point increase in our overhead cost as a percent of revenue.

這導致我們的管理費用佔收入的百分比增加了 110 個基點。

In addition, and for the first time this year, our direct operating cost also increased as a percent of revenue when compared to the same quarter of the prior year.

此外，與去年同期相比，我們的直接營運成本佔收入的百分比今年首次增加。

The increase in our direct operating costs as a percent of revenue was primarily due to an increase in costs associated with our group health and dental plans.

我們的直接營運成本佔收入的百分比增加主要是由於與我們的團體健康和牙科計劃相關的成本增加。

As a result, our employee benefit costs increased to 38.6% of salaries and wages during the third quarter of 2024 from 37.3% in the same period of the prior year.

因此，我們的員工福利成本佔薪資和薪資的比例從去年同期的 37.3% 增加到 2024 年第三季的 38.6%。

Old Dominion's cash flow from operations totaled $446.5 million for the third quarter and $1.3 billion for the first nine months of 2024, respectively, while capital expenditures were $242.8 million and $600.4 million for the same periods.

Old Dominion 第三季的營運現金流總額為 4.465 億美元，2024 年前 9 個月的營運現金流總額為 13 億美元，而同期資本支出為 2.428 億美元和 6.004 億美元。

We utilized $187.7 million and $824.8 million of cash for our share repurchase program during the third quarter and first nine months of 2024, respectively, while our cash dividends totaled $55.6 million and $168.2 million for the same periods.

2024 年第三季和前 9 個月，我們分別使用了 1.877 億美元和 8.248 億美元的現金用於股票回購計劃，而同期現金股利總計為 5,560 萬美元和 1.682 億美元。

Our effective tax rate for the third quarter of 2024 was 23.4% as compared to 24.0% in the third quarter of 2023.

我們 2024 年第三季的有效稅率為 23.4%，而 2023 年第三季為 24.0%。

We currently expect our effective tax rate to be 24.5% for the fourth quarter.

我們目前預計第四季的有效稅率為 24.5%。

This concludes our prepared remarks this morning.

我們今天早上準備好的演講到此結束。

Operator, we'll be happy to open the floor for questions at this time.

接線員，我們很樂意在此時開放提問。

(Operator Instructions) Eric Morgan, Barclays.

（操作員指示）Eric Morgan，巴克萊銀行。

Hey, good morning.

嘿，早安。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

I guess I just wanted to start on the near term.

我想我只是想從近期開始。

It sounds like October tonnage decline is getting a little bit worse relative to September, something driven by shipment of weights coming lower.

聽起來 10 月的噸位下降相對於 9 月來說更加嚴重，這是由於重量運輸量下降所致。

It's kind of been the trend here recently.

這是最近這裡的趨勢。

And then how you're thinking about operating ratio into your end here would be helpful.

然後你如何考慮營運比率到你的最終目的將會有所幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes, from a volume standpoint, the year over year, our tonnage is in October.

是的，從成交量的角度來看，我們的噸位在十月。

Take the midpoint of that range that we gave.

取我們給出的範圍的中點。

It would be down about 9.5%.

它將下降約9.5%。

And obviously, we've got many days left to finish out this month, and so we'll see how the rest of the month finishes.

顯然，這個月我們還有很多天可以完成，所以我們將看看這個月剩下的時間如何完成。

It's why we gave a little bit more of a range than we normally do.

這就是為什麼我們給的範圍比平常多一點。

But if you take the midpoint of that, in October, that's got our sequential change down, just call it about 3.5%.

但如果你採用 10 月的中點，我們的環比變化就會下降，我們稱之為 3.5% 左右。

The 10-year average sequential is a decrease of 3.1%, and that's October versus September.

10 月與 9 月的平均季減了 3.1%。

So it's actually encouraging to see what our volume trends so far this month have been.

因此，看到本月到目前為止我們的銷售趨勢實際上是令人鼓舞的。

This is the first time that we've been, I would say, relatively close to what our normal sequential changes have been in the first month of a quarter.

我想說，這是我們第一次相對接近一個季度第一個月的正常連續變化。

So we feel pretty good about how volumes are trending and continued strength in our yield performance that we've seen as well.

因此，我們對交易量的趨勢以及我們所看到的收益率表現的持續強勁感到非常滿意。

So we'll continue to watch that.

所以我們將繼續關注。

But the year over year, I think, is just skewed a bit by -- if you recall last year, we had a competitor that had some cybersecurity issue, and we had some temporary freight coming into the system, if you will.

但我認為，年復一年，只是有點偏差——如果你還記得去年，我們的競爭對手存在一些網路安全問題，如果你願意的話，我們有一些臨時貨物進入系統。

So we picked up some incremental freight there that was a bit unusual and caused outperformance from a seasonality standpoint that obviously is not there right now, but feeling good thus far about the October trend.

因此，我們在那裡獲得了一些增量貨運，這有點不尋常，從季節性角度來看，這導致了表現出色，但目前顯然不存在，但到目前為止對 10 月份的趨勢感覺良好。

Thanks, and just the operating ratio side of that, if you wouldn't mind?

謝謝，如果您不介意的話，只是營運比率方面？

Appreciate it.

欣賞它。

Yes, I was going to try to leave that maybe for someone else.

是的，我打算嘗試把它留給別人。

Those are two big questions packed into one.

這是兩個大問題合而為一。

So just try to keep questions to one.

所以盡量只問一個人。

But just to go ahead and address that, because we know it's going to be a question anyways, the normal 3Q to 4Q progression is about a 200- to 250-basis-point deterioration, and that's excluding any insurance adjustments.

但為了繼續解決這個問題，因為我們知道這無論如何都會成為一個問題，正常的第三季到第四季的進展大約是 200 到 250 個基點的惡化，而且這不包括任何保險調整。

We do an actuarial assessment in the fourth quarter every year.

我們每年第四季都會進行精算評估。

Sometimes those are good guides.

有時這些是很好的指南。

Sometimes like last year, I think we had about a 70-basis-point headwind when it came to the actuarial adjustment, it was an unfavorable adjustment last year.

有時像去年，我認為我們在精算調整方面遇到了大約70個基點的逆風，這是去年的不利調整。

So I think when thinking about this fourth quarter, conservatively, I think we probably ought to slide that scale up about 100 basis points.

因此，我認為，當保守地考慮第四季時，我認為我們可能應該將這一規模上調約 100 個基點。

And the reason for that would just be the continued risk from a revenue standpoint and the impact that would have on overhead expenses.

原因只是從收入角度來看持續存在的風險以及對管理費用的影響。

We just saw that headwind play out in the third quarter, kind of going back to the guidance that we gave at the end of the second-quarter call going into 2Q.

我們剛剛看到第三季度出現了逆風，有點回到了我們在進入第二季度的第二季度電話會議結束時給出的指導。

Revenue came in softer, and as a result, our overhead expenses were about 40 basis points higher than kind of what we had anticipated at the end of the second-quarter call.

收入疲軟，因此，我們的管理費用比我們在第二季電話會議結束時的預期高出約 40 個基點。

And then I think we also have a continued risk with respect to our fringe benefit cost.

然後我認為我們的附加福利成本也存在持續的風險。

Those were higher than what the trend has been this year and higher than what they had been for the same period last year in the third quarter.

這些數字高於今年的趨勢，也高於第三季去年同期的水平。

And so I think there's a continued risk.

所以我認為風險持續存在。

Those may stay a little bit higher in the fourth quarter, but both of those things are something that could trend better.

這些可能在第四季度保持略高，但這兩件事的趨勢都可能會更好。

I think if we have -- like I mentioned earlier, the October trend is starting out pretty good from a volume standpoint.

我認為，如果我們——就像我之前提到的那樣，從成交量的角度來看，十月份的趨勢開始得相當不錯。

So if we can get our revenues back closer to seasonality, if you will -- and obviously, we'll give our mid-quarter updates, then there can be some favorability there.

因此，如果我們能讓我們的收入恢復到更接近季節性的水平，如果你願意的話——顯然，我們將提供季度中期的更新，那麼那裡可能會有一些優惠。

Just some pluses and minuses, and I think from a conservative standpoint, probably better to just slide that scale up in terms of where things stand right now.

只是一些優點和缺點，我認為從保守的角度來看，就目前的情況而言，可能會更好地擴大規模。

Thanks a lot.

多謝。

Jason Seidel, TD Cowen.

賈森·賽德爾，TD·考恩。

Yes, thank you.

是的，謝謝。

Hey, gentlemen, good morning.

嘿，先生們，早安。

Appreciate the time.

珍惜時間。

You brought up SD's issues that they had last year that sort of grow beyond normal tonnage numbers for you in October of 2023.

您提到了 SD 去年遇到的問題，這些問題在 2023 年 10 月超出了您的正常噸位數字。

Should we expect then that by November and December, the tonnage comps get easier, so we're not probably looking down as much as we're seeing in October?

那麼我們是否應該預期，到 11 月和 12 月，噸位比較會變得更容易，因此我們可能不會像 10 月那樣看跌？

Yes, I think that's fair.

是的，我認為這是公平的。

I think the October is definitely the toughest comp.

我認為十月絕對是最艱難的比賽。

When I go back and look at last year's sequential performance in November versus October, our tonnage was down six-tenths of a percent, and our 10-year average there is a 3.1% increase.

當我回顧去年 11 月與 10 月的連續表現時，我們的噸位下降了十分之六，而我們 10 年的平均噸位增加了 3.1%。

And then December outperformed.

然後 12 月表現優異。

We were down 4.8% in December of '23 versus November of '23.

與 2023 年 11 月相比，2023 年 12 月我們下跌了 4.8%。

The tenure average there is 7%.

平均任期為 7%。

So I think that this is probably the toughest comp, if you will, of the quarter in October.

因此，如果你願意的話，我認為這可能是 10 月季度中最艱難的競爭。

But depending on how November trends, if we get some acceleration back in the business -- and then obviously December is always a tough month for everyone given the holidays and whatnot, but if we can kind of hang on, had a little bit about performance there, so that will -- December would be a little bit tougher versus the November.

但根據 11 月的趨勢，如果我們的業務得到一些加速，那麼顯然 12 月對每個人來說總是一個艱難的月份，考慮到假期和其他什麼，但如果我們能堅持下去，對業績有一點了解在那裡，所以十二月會比十一月更艱難。

But I think on the whole -- as we go through this fourth quarter, I mean, this feels like we're finally getting to what we hope is a floor.

但我認為總的來說，當我們經歷第四季度時，我的意思是，感覺我們終於達到了我們希望的底部。

We're encouraged about how things are trending.

我們對事情的發展趨勢感到鼓舞。

It's good to see the sequential performance thus far in October.

很高興看到十月份迄今為止的連續表現。

And obviously, it got many days to get through this quarter.

顯然，這個季度需要很多天才能完成。

And 1Q is also tough, but to think about from a big picture standpoint, we've been underperforming normal sequential trends for about 2.5 years now, so it certainly feels like we're finally coming to the end of a cycle.

第一季也很艱難，但從大局角度考慮，我們已經有大約 2.5 年的時間表現不佳於正常的連續趨勢，所以感覺我們終於到了一個週期的結束。

We've got to go through these tough quarters, but we finally have seen, I think, traction with respect to interest rates are declining.

我們必須經歷這些艱難的季度，但我認為我們最終看到，利率的吸引力正在下降。

We'll have the uncertainty of the election behind us pretty soon.

我們很快就會擺脫選舉的不確定性。

And so hopefully, we can get back to seeing some growth for our industry, for which typically when the industry starts to inflect the deposit, that's when our model shines the brightest and we win the most shares.

因此，希望我們能夠重新看到我們行業的一些成長，通常當行業開始影響存款時，我們的模型就會表現得最耀眼，我們會贏得最多的份額。

So we're looking forward to getting through this final quarter here of the year and starting out next year with, hopefully, some good strength.

因此，我們期待著度過今年的最後一個季度，並希望在明年開始時擁有一些良好的實力。

I hope so too.

我也希望如此。

And with the with the year-over-year comp in October for [STs] did that impact the weight per shipment at all, could you remind us?

與 10 月 [ST] 的同比比較相比，這是否對每批貨物的重量產生了影響，您能提醒我們嗎？

The weight per shipment, last year, it was pretty much right in line with what our normal tenure average would be.

去年每批貨物的重量與我們正常的保有權平均值非常一致。

So we were -- in October last year, we were down three-tenths of a percent and then pretty much performed about in alignment with what normal weight per shipment or trend.

因此，去年 10 月，我們下降了十分之三，然後幾乎與每批貨物的正常重量或趨勢保持一致。

Typically, you'll get a little bit of an increase in weight-per-shipment from the third quarter to the fourth quarter.

通常，從第三季度到第四季度，每批貨物的重量會略有增加。

And that's something that actually was a little bit of a surprise for us.

這實際上讓我們有點驚訝。

In the third quarter, our weight per shipment ticked down a bit, and July was somewhat consistent -- and I'm speaking of this year now.

在第三季度，我們每批貨物的重量略有下降，七月的情況有些穩定——我現在說的是今年。

July was pretty consistent with our tenure average, but then it dropped further in August, came back a little bit in September, but overall kind of underperformed what the weight would be.

7 月與我們的任期平均水平相當一致，但隨後在 8 月進一步下降，9 月略有回升，但總體表現低於權重。

But at this point, we've actually in October are seeing a bit of an increase.

但目前，我們實際上在 10 月就看到了一些成長。

So typically, the 10-year average in October, like I just said, is down three-tenths.

因此，正如我剛才所說，通常情況下，10 月的 10 年平均值會下降十分之三。

So if we're seeing a little bit of an increase, that's obviously a good thing for business as well.

因此，如果我們看到一點點成長，這對企業來說顯然也是一件好事。

We're getting more weight for shipment.

我們的裝運重量越來越重。

We're going to have a little bit higher revenue for shipment as well, and that generally drives improved productivity also.

我們的出貨收入也將增加，這通常也會提高生產力。

So and hopefully -- that's generally has been a sign of hope with respect to the economy as well.

因此，希望這也是對經濟充滿希望的徵兆。

So that will be another metric to continue to watch to see if we see things start to pick up for us.

因此，這將是我們繼續觀察的另一個指標，看看我們的情況是否開始好轉。

Right.

正確的。

Well, listen, I really appreciate the time and color, guys.

好吧，聽著，我真的很欣賞這些時間和色彩，夥計們。

Daniel Imbro, Stephens Inc.

丹尼爾·因布羅，史蒂芬斯公司

Yes.

是的。

Hey, good morning, guys.

嘿，早上好，夥計們。

Thanks for taking our questions.

感謝您回答我們的問題。

I want to follow up maybe on the near-term trend.

我想跟進近期趨勢。

So it seems like LTL yield growth has moderated a bit across the industry.

因此，整個產業的零擔產量成長似乎有所放緩。

I appreciate the tonnage update for October.

我很欣賞十月份的噸位更新。

I guess, Adam, could you share some color on how you see yields shaping up here into the fourth quarter?

我想，亞當，您能否分享一些您對第四季殖利率走勢的看法？

And then more broadly, if the macro remains this weak, I guess, do you expect to see any irrationality in the market that would make it harder for you guys to keep realizing price increases above inflation?

更廣泛地說，如果宏觀經濟仍然如此疲軟，我想，您是否預計市場會出現任何非理性現象，從而使您更難繼續實現價格上漲高於通膨？

Or how is your price realization going as you talk to customers?

或者當您與客戶交談時，您的價格實現情況如何？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yes, I was pleased with our yield performance through the third quarter.

是的，我對第三季的收益率表現感到滿意。

And it takes having superior service to support what we're able to achieve consistently year in and year out from a yield performance.

我們需要卓越的服務來支持我們年復一年持續實現的收益表現。

And so we're really, really proud of the service metrics we've been able to deliver.

因此，我們對我們能夠提供的服務指標感到非常非常自豪。

And just to repeat, winning that Mastio Award for the 15th straight year hopefully has put to bed some of the faults; that gap between us and our competitors has closed.

再說一遍，連續 15 年榮獲 Mastio 獎有望彌補一些缺陷；我們和競爭對手之間的差距已經縮小。

And so really pleased to see that performance with this year's results.

非常高興看到今年的業績表現。

But I think at the end of the last call, we talked about normal seasonality with respect to our revenue for hundredweight, excluding fuel surcharges.

但我認為在上次電話會議結束時，我們討論了英擔收入的正常季節性，不包括燃油附加費。

And that would have put us in the 4% to 4.5% range for the third quarter.

這將使我們第三季的成長率處於 4% 至 4.5% 的範圍內。

And we came in at the top end of that range.

我們進入了該範圍的頂端。

And granted, we had a little bit lower weight for shipment as I just was referencing with Jason.

當然，正如我剛剛與傑森提到的那樣，我們的運輸重量稍輕一些。

So that certainly helped the revenue per hundredweight.

因此，這無疑有助於提高每英擔收入。

But to me, it just seemed like consistent performance through the quarter.

但對我來說，整個季度的表現似乎都很穩定。

And that's what we would continue to expect.

這就是我們繼續期望的。

Our yield management process is we take a long-term and consistent approach that tries to offset our cost inflation and support continued investments in our network and in our technologies and so forth.

我們的收益管理流程是採取長期一致的方法，試圖抵消我們的成本膨脹並支持對我們的網路和技術等的持續投資。

So if normal seasonality plays out for the fourth quarter, that would put the revenue for hundredweight, excluding fuel, up in the 3.8% to 4.2% type of range.

因此，如果第四季出現正常的季節性，那麼不包括燃料的英擔收入將增加 3.8% 至 4.2% 的範圍。

And yes, we'll continue to watch that as we go through, but we expect to continue to get increases.

是的，我們將繼續關注這一情況，但我們預計會繼續增加。

We're seeing it.

我們正在看到它。

We've seen it throughout this year and really throughout the last 2.5 years that we've been in this weak economic period.

我們在今年以及過去 2.5 年都看到了這一點，我們一直處於經濟疲軟時期。

And so just continue to execute on that consistent philosophy, and we're getting increases as we go through bid renewals.

因此，只要繼續執行這一一貫的理念，當我們進行投標續訂時，我們就會獲得成長。

And that would be the same expectation as we go through this year and would be the same as we go through next year as well.

這與我們今年的期望相同，也與我們明年的期望相同。

Appreciate the color.

欣賞顏色。

Best of luck guys.

祝大家好運。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

斯科特集團，沃爾夫研究。

Hey, thanks.

嘿，謝謝。

I just want to follow up on that last question.

我只想跟進最後一個問題。

So I think, Adam, your October update is that total yields were negative.

所以我認為，亞當，你十月的更新是總報酬率為負。

I guess you're talking about yield ex-fuel up, call it 4%.

我猜你說的是扣除燃油後的收益率，稱之為 4%。

So this drop off in yield is entirely fuel?

那麼產量的下降完全是燃料造成的呢？

I know fuel is down, but I just want to make sure that that's right.

我知道燃料減少了，但我只是想確保這是正確的。

And then just to ask it sort of directly, are you seeing more pricing competition or rational pricing?

然後直接問一下，您看到的是更多的定價競爭還是理性定價？

There's certainly more concern about that in the market right now.

目前市場肯定對此更加擔憂。

Are you guys seeing it or not?

你們到底看不看呢？

Yes, just to address October -- and we didn't give the exact number, but you can kind of back into it.

是的，只是針對十月——我們沒有給出確切的數字，但你可以回顧一下。

Yes, the revenue per hundredweight with fuel right now is trending down.

是的，目前每英擔燃料的收入正在下降。

A lot of that is fuel related.

其中很多與燃料有關。

Fuel at this point is down about 20% compared to October of last year.

與去年 10 月相比，此時的燃油量下降了約 20%。

So a bigger drop, if you will, compared to what we just saw in the third quarter.

因此，如果你願意的話，與我們剛剛看到的第三季相比，下降幅度更大。

And that should moderate as we progress through the fourth quarter.

隨著第四季度的進展，這種情況應該會有所緩和。

It was about [$450] a gallon last year in October but ended up averaging about [$425] for the full fourth quarter of last year.

去年 10 月的價格約為每加侖 [450 美元]，但去年整個第四季的平均價格約為 [425 美元]。

So that's something that will moderate a bit.

所以這會有所緩和。

And anytime looking at one-month trends as well, given some of that disruption that we had last year, you had some mixed issues going on and so forth.

考慮到去年我們遇到的一些幹擾，無論何時查看一個月的趨勢，都會遇到一些複雜的問題等等。

So we would still expect to see that sequential trend play out like I just mentioned and overall yields ex-fuel being up in that 3.8%, that 4.2%, assuming mixed stays constant.

因此，我們仍然期望看到連續趨勢的發展，就像我剛才提到的那樣，假設混合保持不變，不含燃料的總體收益率將上漲 3.8%、4.2%。

If we see a continued increase in weight for shipment, that could put some pressure on the reported yields, that revenue per hundredweight, but that would be a good thing.

如果我們看到裝運重量持續增加，這可能會對報告的產量（即每英擔收入）造成一些壓力，但這將是一件好事。

So that's what we'll continue to watch.

這就是我們將繼續關注的。

But I think that with respect to the overall environment, we'll have to wait and see what the other carriers report and what their commentary is like.

但我認為，就整體環境而言，我們還必須等待，看看其他業者的報告和評論如何。

I can only speak for us, but the environment is has been pretty stable, all things considered, this whole year.

我只能代表我們說話，但從各方面考慮，這一整年的環境都相當穩定。

And we've been able to continue to get our increases, and I think that proves the value proposition that we have and what we can offer shippers in being consistent with our approach.

我們已經能夠繼續獲得成長，我認為這證明了我們擁有的價值主張以及我們可以為托運人提供的與我們的方法一致的東西。

So it hasn't impacted us, hasn't impacted our market share.

所以它沒有影響我們，也沒有影響我們的市場佔有率。

Our market share has been flattish, which, as Marty mentioned earlier, it's typically what we see through a slower economic period.

我們的市場份額一直持平，正如馬蒂之前提到的，這通常是我們在經濟放緩時期看到的情況。

And so I feel like we're well positioned with what we've done, how we've executed, managed our costs, managed our operating ratio through this last couple of years, and feel good about our positioning whenever we can, turn the page back to having a little bit of economic tailwinds for a change.

因此，我覺得我們在過去幾年中所做的事情、執行方式、成本管理、營運比率方面都處於有利位置，只要有可能，我們就對我們的定位感到滿意，扭轉局面回到有一點經濟順風的改變。

It feels like we've been running against the wind for a long time now, and we're ready to see things start to turn around. and give us a little bit of help from an economic standpoint.

感覺我們已經逆風奔跑了很長一段時間，我們已經準備好看到事情開始好轉。並從經濟角度給我們一點幫助。

Makes sense.

有道理。

Thank you, guys.

謝謝你們，夥計們。

Jordan Alliger, Goldman Sachs.

喬丹·阿利格，高盛。

Yes, hi, morning.

是的，嗨，早安。

Yes, I know from a high-level standpoint, hopefully, we are bottoming from a trend perspective.

是的，我知道從高層的角度來看，希望我們從趨勢的角度來看正在觸底。

I'm just curious, are there any pockets of your customer base, whether it be retail, manufacturing, wholesale, or distributor, where maybe you could point to even being some favorable volume?

我只是很好奇，您的客戶群中是否有任何部分，無論是零售、製造、批發還是分銷商，也許您可以指出甚至有一些有利的數量？

Or is it pretty much not the case?

或者事實並非如此？

And then secondly if we have normal seasonality from October -- I think we're kind of running normal September to October.

其次，如果我們從 10 月開始有正常的季節性——我認為我們從 9 月到 10 月都是正常的。

If we run normal seasonality through the balance of this quarter, is there a way to think about where tonnage could shake out in aggregate year over year for the quarter?

如果我們在本季的剩餘時間內運作正常的季節性，是否有辦法考慮該季度的總噸位可能會比去年同期變化？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yes, from a breakdown of the revenue base, I mean, as you can imagine, we're seeing better performance with our retail-related customers and continued weakness with our industry-related customers, which, industrial for us, is 55% to 60% of our revenue.

是的，從收入基礎的細分來看，我的意思是，正如您可以想像的那樣，我們看到零售相關客戶的業績有所改善，而我們行業相關客戶的業績持續疲軟，對於我們來說，工業相關客戶的表現下降了55%我們收入的 60%。

So that's certainly showing in our numbers and the decrease that we've seen.

因此，這肯定反映在我們的數字和我們所看到的下降中。

But I think [ISM] has been down for 22, 23 months now, and that's been the challenge that we faced over this last couple of year period.

但我認為 [ISM] 已經下降了 22、23 個月，這是我們在過去幾年中面臨的挑戰。

But the retail has performed a little bit better.

但零售業的表現稍好。

Really, the one thing that if you look for a bright spot would be our third-party logistics customers.

確實，如果你尋找一個亮點，那就是我們的第三方物流客戶。

3PL represents probably a third of our revenue, and we actually saw some revenue growth with our 3PL customers in the third quarter.

3PL 可能占我們營收的三分之一，實際上我們在第三季看到 3PL 客戶的營收有所成長。

So to me, that's a good trend because we've talked in recent quarters that we feel like there's been some modal shift that has been happening over the, I would say, especially last year when that large competitor closed their doors.

所以對我來說，這是一個很好的趨勢，因為我們在最近幾季談到，我們覺得在我看來，特別是去年那個大型競爭對手關門時，已經發生了一些模式轉變。

I think people were just trying to find a home for freight.

我認為人們只是想為貨運找到一個家。

And in many cases, many LTL shipments might have ended up in the truckload world.

在許多情況下，許多零擔貨物可能最終進入了卡車運輸世界。

And a lot of times we'll see that movement back and forth between modes, especially with the 3PLs.

很多時候我們會看到模式之間的來回移動，尤其是 3PL。

Now that we're seeing an influx of business coming back in, I think whatever outflow was going, the tide is finally coming back in.

現在我們看到大量業務重新湧入，我認為無論流出情況如何，潮流終於會回來。

And so if we can see a continuation there, that should mean a good thing as we project out and start thinking about 2025.

因此，如果我們能夠看到這種情況的延續，那麼當我們規劃並開始考慮 2025 年時，這應該意味著一件好事。

So that's probably the brightest spot to pick through the different customer base.

因此，這可能是在不同客戶群中挑選的最亮點。

Thanks.

謝謝。

And then, again, just if you have any thoughts on normal volume seasonality from here for the balance of the quarter, where that could kind of maybe shake out for the whole quarter?

然後，如果您對本季剩餘時間的正常交易量季節性有任何想法，那麼整個季度可能會發生什麼變化？

Yes.

是的。

I mean, it's -- we're a long ways from there.

我的意思是，我們距離那裡還有很長的路要走。

But if we were to hit normal seasonality, that would put tonnage per day down like 6.5% to 7% for the full quarter.

但如果我們達到正常的季節性，整個季度的每日噸位將下降 6.5% 至 7%。

If you just look at kind of bigger-picture revenue, revenue per day at seasonality would be at about $1.4 billion.

如果你只看更宏觀的收入，季節性的每日收入約為 14 億美元。

And we've been underperforming seasonality, like I mentioned, for the last couple of years.

正如我所提到的，過去幾年我們的季節性表現一直不佳。

So if you kind of take that normal rate of underperformance, at least where we were in the third quarter, it would be down like $1.35 billion.

因此，如果按照正常的表現不佳率計算，至少在第三季度，它會減少 13.5 億美元。

So it's something to just keep in mind as we progress through the quarter and give our full update.

因此，當我們在本季度取得進展並提供完整更新時，請記住這一點。

Obviously, the revenue per day in October should look the worst.

顯然，十月的每日收入看起來應該是最糟糕的。

And then hopefully, things from a comp standpoint just start looking better.

希望從比較的角度來看，事情開始變得更好。

Overall, as we get into November, we'll give our mid-quarter update that will help you all clean up your models from there.

總的來說，隨著進入 11 月，我們將提供季度中期更新，以幫助大家清理模型。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Jon Chappell, Evercore ISI.

（操作員說明）Jon Chappell，Evercore ISI。

Thank you, good morning.

謝謝你，早安。

Adam, you kind of mentioned at the end of one of your answers the uncertainty around the election and the narrative that we've heard just a little bit recently about shippers maybe kind of pausing until there's a little bit more certainty.

亞當，你在一個答案的最後提到了選舉的不確定性，以及我們最近聽到的一些關於托運人的敘述，可能會暫停，直到有更多的確定性。

I know you have a very diverse end market of customers, but is there any way to kind of frame out what may be a temporary pause versus just the ongoing kind of industrial macro headwinds that you've been facing for the last several quarters?

我知道您的終端市場的客戶非常多樣化，但是有什麼方法可以框架出可能是暫時的暫停，而不是您在過去幾個季度所面臨的持續的工業宏觀逆風？

Yes, I think that obviously that anytime you have uncertainty and typically when you look in election years, they haven't been the best break years, at least in recent history.

是的，我認為顯然，每當你有不確定性時，通常當你看看選舉年時，它們都不是最好的突破年，至少在最近的歷史上是如此。

And so I think that there have been plenty of headlines and we've had customer conversations as well where people are being a bit conservative right now and until they know what things may look like and what impact to their business, new policy directions, may take.

因此，我認為有很多頭條新聞，我們也進行了客戶對話，人們現在有點保守，直到他們知道事情可能會是什麼樣子以及對他們的業務產生什麼影響，新的政策方向可能會改變。

So I think that's something that is temporary, especially right now.

所以我認為這是暫時的，尤其是現在。

But at some point, people have got to get back to looking at their business and how ultimately they want to figure out how to grow and expand and do the things that creates freight that that will create opportunities for us.

但在某些時候，人們必須重新審視他們的業務，以及他們最終想弄清楚如何發展和擴張，並做一些創造貨運的事情，從而為我們創造機會。

So I think that's something that once we can get just this level of uncertainty, that's one more thing that has kind of been potentially holding the economy back, at least for the last quarter or so.

因此，我認為，一旦我們能夠獲得這種程度的不確定性，這可能會阻礙經濟發展，至少在上個季度左右是如此。

So we get past that and start taking interest rate cuts, take an effect, I think people will get back as long as we have a healthy consumer.

因此，我們克服了這一點，開始採取降息措施，發揮作用，我認為只要我們有健康的消費者，人們就會回來。

We're a consumer-driven economy.

我們是一個消費驅動的經濟體。

And if people are buying things, inventory balances get drawn down.

如果人們購買東西，庫存餘額就會減少。

And there's got to be replenishment at some point.

並且在某個時候必須進行補充。

And so we feel like that inventory scale has been drawn down.

所以我們覺得庫存規模已經減少。

And once we sort of renormalize, if you will, we'd expect that we'll be able to pick up quite a bit of freight.

一旦我們重新正常化，如果你願意的話，我們預計我們將能夠接收相當多的貨物。

Thanks, Adam.

謝謝，亞當。

Ken Hoexter, Bank of America.

肯‧霍克斯特，美國銀行。

Hey, good morning.

嘿，早安。

So Adam and Marty, it sounds like a consistent top line, but fixed costs are starting to run.

亞當和馬蒂，聽起來收入是一致的，但固定成本開始增加。

Is there anything you can or want to do at this point to cut those costs, maybe shed some excess capacity?

目前您可以或想要採取什麼措施來削減這些成本，或是削減一些過剩產能？

It seems like that's bearing down on the industry.

這似乎正在對該行業產生影響。

And just to clarify your OR comment, was that 300 to 350 basis points sequential deterioration?

只是為了澄清你的 OR 評論，這是否是 300 到 350 個基點的連續惡化？

So you're talking about a 75.5 to 76 type of number for the fourth quarter?

所以你說的是第四季 75.5 到 76 的數據？

Yes, that's correct, Ken.

是的，這是正確的，肯。

That was the sequential guidance from the report of that range.

這是該範圍報告的連續指導。

But look, we're taking action every day.

但是看，我們每天都在採取行動。

And we keep our belts tight year in and year out, in good times and bad.

我們年復一年地勒緊褲帶，無論順境或逆境。

I think that if you don't know how to manage cost, if you don't manage cost in good times, you probably don't know where to start when times are tough.

我認為，如果你不知道如何管理成本，如果你不在繁榮時期管理成本，那麼在困難時期你可能不知道從哪裡開始。

And I think that's a lesson I learned years ago.

我認為這是我多年前學到的教訓。

So that's an ongoing focus for us and our team.

因此，這是我們和團隊持續關注的焦點。

We stay on top and have metrics from a productivity standpoint that we're always staying on top of.

我們保持領先地位，並從生產力的角度製定了我們始終保持領先的指標。

And our team's been very effective this year in that regard, especially when you've got a lack of density in the system and we've expanded the system a little bit, opening five or six terminals this year.

我們的團隊今年在這方面非常有效，特別是當系統密度不足時，我們稍微擴展了系統，今年開設了五到六個終端。

So in the third quarter especially, we had an improvement in our platform shipments per hour.

因此，特別是在第三季度，我們的平台每小時出貨量有所改善。

We had an improvement in our pickup delivery shipments per hour, so some improvements there in the third quarter despite the volume weakness.

我們每小時的取貨送貨量有所改善，因此儘管數量疲軟，但第三季仍有一些改善。

Our load factor from a line haul standpoint is -- continue to face some pressure, but again, that's volume weakness and it's pretty much -- was down in alignment with the decrease in weight for shipment was.

從長途運輸的角度來看，我們的載客率是——繼續面臨一些壓力，但同樣，這是運量疲軟，而且幾乎是——隨著裝運重量的減少而下降。

So it's not atypical to see that type of performance.

因此，看到這種類型的表演並不罕見。

But to us, the most important thing is to keep giving service and running our schedules.

但對我們來說，最重要的是繼續提供服務並執行我們的日程安排。

And that's why in slower periods, it can create a little bit of a cost headwind for us.

這就是為什麼在較慢的時期，它會給我們帶來一些成本阻力。

But we think it's more important to keep giving service now than ever.

但我們認為現在繼續提供服務比以往任何時候都更重要。

And so that certainly has supported the value proposition over time.

因此，隨著時間的推移，這肯定支持了價值主張。

With respect to our overhead cost, yes, those have been about $300 million to $305 million each quarter this year.

是的，就我們的管理費用而言，今年每季的管理費用約為 3 億至 3.05 億美元。

And we look at ways and control discretionary spending.

我們會尋找方法並控制可自由支配的支出。

I think that in regards to cutting back on capacity, we want to keep our eye out for the long term.

我認為，在削減產能方面，我們要著眼於長期。

And we still believe in the fact that we've got a long runway for growth ahead, and that was why we expanded and executed on a CapEx plan like we did this year.

我們仍然相信，我們未來的成長還有很長的路要走，這就是為什麼我們像今年一樣擴大和執行資本支出計畫。

Probably, we'll cut back, would expect, cut back our capital expenditures into next year and grow into some of this capacity that we have.

也許，我們會削減，預計，削減我們明年的資本支出，並發展到我們擁有的一些能力。

But we will look to continue to add to the network over time just due to the confidence that we have and what our market share potential can be but probably tighten up our fleet and do some other things like that will help with cost as we go forward.

但我們將隨著時間的推移繼續增加網絡，只是因為我們有信心以及我們的市場份額潛力，但可能會收緊我們的機隊並做一些其他類似的事情，這將有助於我們前進的成本。

But the biggest thing will just be getting back to revenue growth.

但最重要的事情只是恢復收入成長。

And when we think about and you look at historical performance, whenever we do get into an upswing, we've had some significant revenue growth years.

當我們思考並查看歷史績效時，每當我們確實進入上升期時，我們都會經歷一些顯著的收入成長年份。

And it's usually two years coming out of a down cycle.

通常需要兩年的時間才能走出衰退週期。

And whether you look at 2010, 2011, 2017, 2018, 2021, 2022, that's going to be where this investment through the cycle pays the biggest dividends for us.

無論你看看 2010 年、2011 年、2017 年、2018 年、2021 年還是 2022 年，這都將是整個週期的投資為我們帶來最大紅利的時期。

So if we get back to having a stronger economy and get back to the market share outperformance like we've seen in the past, I feel really good about where our operating ratio is today and where it can get to with respect to those overhead charges scaling back down to where they've been as a percent of revenue.

因此，如果我們恢復到更強勁的經濟並恢復到像過去那樣的市場份額表現，我對我們今天的營運比率以及相對於這些間接費用可以達到的水平感到非常滿意縮減到佔收入的百分比。

We're about five operating points.

我們大約有五個操作點。

Overhead cost is a percent of revenue higher than where we were, say, back in 2022.

管理費用佔收入的百分比比 2022 年高。

So there's a lot of opportunity to get us right back on path to achieve that [sub-70%] annual operating ratio goal that we still have.

因此，有許多機會讓我們重新回到實現我們仍然擁有的[低於 70%] 年度營運率目標的道路上。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

I appreciate the thoughts.

我很欣賞這些想法。

Ravi Shanker, Morgan Stanley.

拉維‧尚克，摩根士丹利。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

Can you share a few more details and your thoughts on this Mastio survey?

您能否分享更多細節以及您對此 Mastio 調查的看法？

You've long said that you're not hearing from your customers that the others are closing the gap as much to you guys, as much as maybe the narrative is out there.

您長期以來一直在說，您沒有從客戶那裡聽到其他人正在縮小與您之間的差距，儘管可能有這樣的說法。

And can we see some of that in the results as well?

我們是否也可以在結果中看到其中的一些內容？

But is there a risk that if they're not closing up on service, they can maybe get more competitive on price?

但是否有這樣的風險：如果他們不關閉服務，他們可能會在價格上變得更有競爭力？

Or does this just take time for that service gap to close?

或者服務差距是否需要時間來彌補？

So what do you think happens from here?

那麼你認為從這裡會發生什麼事？

I think that's a question for the other carriers.

我認為這是其他運營商面臨的問題。

And I don't know what their strategies are.

而且我不知道他們的策略是什麼。

I don't know what -- we've heard they were.

我不知道是什麼——我們聽說過。

And that's why we were pleased with the results this year, and that sizable gap between our performance and the others was maintained.

這就是為什麼我們對今年的結果感到滿意，並且我們的表現與其他人之間的巨大差距得以維持。

And so we're not going to sit around and rest on our laurels, though.

因此，我們不會坐視現狀並安於現狀。

We're going to continue to look for ways that we can get better.

我們將繼續尋找可以變得更好的方法。

And like Marty said earlier, there's more than just to service than just picking up and delivering trade on time.

正如馬蒂之前所說，服務不僅僅是按時提貨和交付貿易。

And so there's 28 different attributes that Mastio measures, and we want to be the best in each of those.

Mastio 衡量了 28 種不同的屬性，我們希望在每個屬性上都做到最好。

And so we'll keep working hard to deliver solutions for our customers.

因此，我們將繼續努力為客戶提供解決方案。

And so we have had a proven strategy that has worked for many, many years.

因此，我們有一個行之有效的策略，多年來一直有效。

And we want to keep that model going and keep producing the same type of profitable growth and shareholder value that executing on this same long-term strategic plan has produced for us over time.

我們希望保持這種模式，並繼續產生與執行相同的長期策略計劃隨著時間的推移為我們帶來的相同類型的獲利成長和股東價值。

I think it continues to work in the future.

我認為它在未來會繼續發揮作用。

And whatever temporary decisions other carriers make, we've dealt with it for years, and I think it's something we'll continue to be able to work against as we go forward.

無論其他運營商做出什麼臨時決定，我們已經處理了很多年，而且我認為在我們前進的過程中，我們將繼續能夠反對這個問題。

Chris Wetherbee, Wells Fargo.

克里斯‧韋瑟比，富國銀行。

Hey, thanks.

嘿，謝謝。

Good morning.

早安.

Adam, I wanted to ask about the relationship between truckload and LTL.

Adam，我想問一下整輛車和零擔之間的關係。

That your comments about 3PLs was pretty interesting.

您對 3PL 的評論非常有趣。

We've historically seen share move back and forth.

從歷史上看，我們看到份額來回波動。

But I guess through this cycle, it seems like maybe more share than normal has moved back to truckload.

但我猜想，在這個週期中，似乎比正常情況下更多的份額已經回到了卡車裝載狀態。

And obviously, the pricing dynamic between LTL and TL is maybe as wide as it's been in terms of the relative price.

顯然，LTL 和 TL 之間的定價動態可能與相對價格一樣廣泛。

I guess, does that change anything through the next step cycle, or do you think it doesn't really take a significant upturn in truckload to be able to push volume back into LTL?

我想，這會改變下一步週期中的任何事情嗎？

Obviously, you mentioned that you saw a little bit of that happening in the third quarter.

顯然，您提到您在第三季度看到了一些這種情況的發生。

Just kind of curious how you think about that relationship these days.

只是有點好奇你最近如何看待這段關係。

Yes, I think that obviously, last year was very unusual with what happened and helped support -- the truckload world gets pretty volatile with respect to the volumes and the pricing and so forth.

是的，我認為顯然，去年發生的事情非常不尋常，並有助於支持——卡車世界在數量和定價等方面變得相當不穩定。

And I think it's because of how fragmented that industry is.

我認為這是因為該行業非常分散。

And so that created some freight opportunity.

這就創造了一些貨運機會。

And on the one hand, customers just had to get their freight moved as well.

一方面，客戶也必須將貨物轉移。

And Yellow was hauling 50,000 shipments per day, picking up and delivering 50,000 shipments per day, and that freight had to go somewhere.

Yellow 每天要運輸 50,000 件貨物，每天提貨和交付 50,000 件貨物，而這些貨物必須送到某個地方。

It went to a lot of the remaining LTL carriers, but much of that I felt went into that truckload world as well.

它流向了許多剩餘的零擔運輸公司，但我覺得大部分也進入了卡車運輸世界。

And we've heard people talking about consolidating shipments if they could and using truckload for zone skipping and doing some different things to try to take advantage of that lower-rate environment there.

我們聽到人們談論如果可以的話，整合貨運，使用卡車裝載來跳過區域，並做一些不同的事情來嘗試利用那裡的較低費率環境。

But at the end of the day, if a shipment is less than 10,000 pounds, it makes more sense to be in the LTL world.

但歸根結底，如果貨物重量低於 10,000 磅，那麼進入 LTL 世界就更有意義。

And I think that freight will come back to us in due time.

我認為貨物會在適當的時候返回給我們。

Those truckload carriers don't love doing multi-stops.

那些整車運輸公司不喜歡進行多站運輸。

They can charge a stop-off fee for it, but that really makes sense when they're designed to really go from A to B with a full trailer.

他們可以收取中途停留費，但當他們被設計成帶著完整的拖車從 A 到 B 地時，這確實有意義。

So I think that freight does probably swing back into the LTL world, maybe a little more aggressively than what we've seen through prior economic cycles.

因此，我認為貨運確實可能會回歸零擔運輸領域，可能比我們在先前的經濟週期中看到的更積極。

When I look at overall the data that we get on the universe, LTL shipments are down, tonnage is down about 15% from the peak in the second quarter of 2021.

當我查看我們獲得的總體數據時，零擔貨運量下降了，噸位較 2021 年第二季的峰值下降了約 15%。

So some of that was economic loss, but I think some of it is this modal shift that we've seen and heard about as well.

因此，其中一些是經濟損失，但我認為其中一些是我們也看到和聽說過的模式轉變。

So I think that whenever that kind of wave starts coming back in, I think that'll be something that will be a good opportunity for us.

因此，我認為每當這種浪潮開始捲土重來時，我認為這對我們來說都是一個很好的機會。

But directly, but then indirectly as well, it usually is going to other competitors.

但通常會直接或間接流向其他競爭對手。

And those competitors end up having service issues with existing customers, and many of those customers come to us as well.

這些競爭對手最終會與現有客戶產生服務問題，而其中許多客戶也來找我們。

So I think that whenever we see this cycle inflection, I think we've got multiple fronts that should help us from a volume standpoint.

因此，我認為，每當我們看到這種週期拐點時，我認為我們有多個戰線，從數量的角度來看應該對我們有所幫助。

Got it.

知道了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Brian Ossenbeck, JPMorgan.

布萊恩‧奧森貝克，摩根大通。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Hey, good morning.

嘿，早安。

Thank you for taking the question.

感謝您提出問題。

Just a quick clarification.

只是快速澄清一下。

Did you see any impact from the hurricanes on the network, either yours or some of your customers?

您是否發現颶風對您或您的部分客戶的網路造成了影響？

And should that start to pick back up here, perhaps in the fourth quarter?

這種情況是否應該開始回升，也許是在第四季？

And then looking into next year, another way to look at pricing, I guess, the NMFTA is looking at making some changes to the class system.

然後展望明年，我想 NMFTA 正在考慮對等級制度進行一些改變。

I think it's going more dimensional based.

我認為它會更加基於維度。

It's related to the effect in the middle of next year.

這關係到明年年中的效果。

I don't know if you've got any early comments on that in terms of implications for yourselves, for the industry, and perhaps the shippers as well.

我不知道您對此是否有任何早期的評論，對您自己、對行業、或許還有對托運人的影響。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes, we definitely had some revenue loss related to the hurricane.

是的，我們確實有一些與颶風相關的收入損失。

And operationally, it presents some challenges as well.

在操作上，它也帶來了一些挑戰。

We were initially pleased that all of our employees got through everything okay from everything we understand, from a health standpoint as well as property standpoint.

最初，我們很高興我們所有的員工從健康和財產的角度來看，從我們所了解的一切來看，一切都很順利。

Our network was fine as well.

我們的網路也很好。

I think we were lucky in the sense of none of our properties really suffered any significant damage.

我認為我們很幸運，因為我們的財產沒有受到任何重大損害。

We were down for a bit, which is typical when you have big major storms like that move through but have recovered since nicely.

我們經歷了一段時期的低迷，這是典型的經歷過類似大風暴的情況，但此後已經恢復得很好。

There will be some ongoing disruption operationally though some of the interstate systems and in western North Carolina that will continue to be impacted perhaps up to a year before some of those roadways are repaired.

儘管一些州際公路系統和北卡羅來納州西部地區的運作仍將受到一些持續的干擾，但在其中一些道路得到修復之前，這些影響可能會持續長達一年。

So that's something that our operating team does a phenomenal job, our line hall management team of looking and figuring out how we need to rework the system to make sure that we've got freight, that if something's picked up in eastern North Carolina going to California, and any point in between, we get that freight moved seamlessly and within our service standards.

因此，我們的營運團隊做得非常出色，我們的線路大廳管理團隊負責尋找並弄清楚我們需要如何改造系統以確保我們有貨物，如果北卡羅來納州東部收到了貨物，加利福尼亞州以及其間的任何地點，我們都能在我們的服務標準範圍內無縫運輸貨物。

So pleased with respect to how the team responded to the challenges from those storms that came through.

對於團隊如何應對這些風暴帶來的挑戰感到非常高興。

And remind me again, what was the second part of the question?

再次提醒我，問題的第二部分是什麼？

Yes, it's looking at the NMFPA.

是的，它正在關注 NMFPA。

We're looking at some changes for the class system.

我們正在考慮對職業系統進行一些改變。

Mid-2025 just stops on that.

2025 年中期就到此為止了。

That's I think a good opportunity for us.

我認為這對我們來說是一個很好的機會。

We already dimensioned.

我們已經確定了尺寸。

We've got dimensioners in most of our major service centers, and we're already dimensioning probably 75% of our freight today.

我們的大多數主要服務中心都配備了體積測量儀，目前我們已經對大約 75% 的貨物進行了尺寸測量。

And so that's something that we're already set up to be able to effectively accommodate.

因此，我們已經做好了準備，能夠有效地適應這種情況。

So we'll continue to work with customers through those changes.

因此，我們將繼續與客戶合作完成這些變更。

That got delayed a little bit into the next year, but that's something that we'll be able to handle and may provide another strategic advantage for us against some of our competitors.

這件事被推遲到了明年，但這是我們能夠處理的事情，並且可能為我們相對於一些競爭對手提供另一個戰略優勢。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ari Rosa, Citigroup.

花旗集團的阿里·羅莎。

Hi, Adam, Marty, Jack.

嗨，亞當、馬蒂、傑克。

Just curious to hear your thoughts on the buyback.

只是想聽聽您對回購的想法。

It's up quite a bit from last year.

比去年上漲了不少。

You still have a fairly modest dividend at under 1% yield.

您的股息率仍然相當適中，收益率低於 1%。

And it looks like you're obviously directing most of your capital towards the buyback as opposed to the dividend.

看起來您顯然將大部分資金用於回購而不是股息。

I'm just curious what the logic is for favoring the buyback over the dividend.

我只是好奇支持回購而非股利的邏輯是什麼。

And is there any indication that management essentially is saying that they think the share price is undervalued?

有沒有任何跡象顯示管理階層實質上是在說他們認為股價被低估了？

Yes, well, the buyback was the first type of capital return program that we started back in 2014.

是的，回購是我們於 2014 年啟動的第一個資本回報計畫。

And that was when our cash flow model was changing, and we were generating excess cash.

那時我們的現金流模型正在發生變化，我們產生了過剩的現金。

And we still look today for -- the first use of cash would be for reinvesting in the company with strong returns on invested capital that we have at 30%.

今天我們仍然在尋找——現金的第一個用途是對投資資本回報率高達 30% 的公司進行再投資。

But secondly would be the buybacks.

但其次是回購。

And that was, as I just said, what we started with.

正如我剛才所說，這就是我們的出發點。

And then we implemented the dividend program in 2017 to kind of round out all the respective requests, if you will, and preferences of different shareholders.

然後，我們在 2017 年實施了股息計劃，以完善所有各自的要求（如果您願意的話）以及不同股東的偏好。

But the buyback is obviously a tax-efficient means and provides a lot of flexibility with respect to returning capital.

但回購顯然是一種節稅手段，並且在資本返還方面提供了極大的靈活性。

When we still feel like we've got quite a bit of investment ahead of us, we're generally still spending 10% to 15% of our revenues on capital expenditures every year.

當我們仍然感覺自己還有相當多的投資等著我們時，我們通常每年仍將收入的 10% 到 15% 用於資本支出。

But having that flexibility on the buyback will allow us to step that CapEx number up, meaningfully if we needed to, based on what volume demands were and market share trends continue to be.

但是，在回購方面擁有這種靈活性將使我們能夠根據數量需求和市場份額趨勢繼續提高資本支出數量，如果我們需要的話，這是有意義的。

But yes, we -- and the second quarter was really when we spent the most on the buyback this year.

但是，是的，第二季確實是我們今年在回購上花費最多的時候。

And some of that was just due to the stock weakness.

其中部分原因只是因為股票疲軟。

We generally are pretty consistent quarter in and quarter out but sort of take a grid-based approach with the consistent investment that we make and buy more when the stock's lower and less when it's higher, but consistently returning capital.

我們通常每個季度都相當一致，但採取了一種基於網格的方法，我們進行一致的投資，當股票下跌時買入更多，當股票上漲時買入更少，但始終如一地回報資本。

But then we'll step in as need be when we see some big weakness like we did in the second quarter, and we ended up spending over $500 million in that period.

但當我們看到像第二季度那樣的重大弱點時，我們將根據需要介入，最終我們在那段時期花費了超過 5 億美元。

And that was consistent with what we did back in 2022 as well where the stock was under pressure, and we spent $1.3 billion that year on the buyback program.

這與我們在 2022 年所做的一致，當時股票面臨壓力，我們當年在回購計畫上花了 13 億美元。

So that would be what our strategy is going forward.

這就是我們未來的策略。

We'll always be looking at it.

我們將永遠關注它。

We forecast outward cash flow from operations and what we think the capital needs for CapEx would look like and look at what the fixed dividend is and then that balance becomes somewhat of a target to spend on the buyback program each year.

我們預測營運產生的外向現金流量以及我們認為資本支出的資本需求，並研究固定股利是多少，然後該餘額在某種程度上成為每年回購計畫的支出目標。

But some years may be less, and some years more like what we're seeing this year.

但有些年份可能會少一些，有些年份則更像我們今年看到的情況。

Stephanie Moore, Jefferies.

史蒂芬妮·摩爾，杰弗里斯。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I was hoping you could maybe shed some light on a potential second-haul freight upside.

我希望您能對二線貨運的潛在優勢有所了解。

So just kind of thinking through the dynamics.

所以只是透過動態來思考。

Obviously, with truckload, we've talked about it and seen pricing was really soft.

顯然，我們已經討論過卡車裝載量，並且發現定價非常軟。

But I think that's largely capacity driven, not so much demand.

但我認為這主要是產能驅動的，而不是需求驅動的。

On the LTL front, obviously, where you guys are playing, it's down.

在LTL方面，很明顯，你們正在玩的地方，它已經下降了。

But.

但。

It also seems to be down from pretty high COVID comps that you throw in; obviously, the bankruptcy of Yellow.

它似乎也比你投入的相當高的新冠病毒補償有所下降；顯然，Yellow 破產了。

So as we kind of think about this eventual upcycle, what evidence are you seeing or you think you could see that would suggest that we actually see kind of an inflection or above-average volume growth, or are we simply just kind of returning to kind of a normal trend line and demand?

因此，當我們思考這個最終的上升週期時，您看到的或您認為可以看到的證據表明我們實際上看到了某種拐點或高於平均水平的銷量增長，或者我們只是簡單地回歸到原來的狀態正常趨勢線和需求？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yes.

是的。

I think that weight for shipment is generally one of the first things that we would start seeing, and that's something that we've been down at historical lows with our weight per shipment down below 1,500 pounds now.

我認為裝運重量通常是我們首先看到的事情之一，而且我們的裝運重量已降至歷史低點，現在每批裝運的重量已降至 1,500 磅以下。

We've been as high as 1,600 pounds in our past.

我們過去的體重曾高達 1,600 磅。

So we start seeing an increase in weight for shipment.

因此，我們開始看到運輸重量的增加。

Generally, that's orders for our customers' product are picking up.

一般來說，我們客戶產品的訂單正在增加。

And so there's more widgets on every shipment, if you will, and then eventually there will be sufficient quantities to where that turns into multiple shipments.

因此，如果你願意的話，每次發貨都會有更多的小部件，最終會有足夠的數量，從而變成多次發貨。

And so you start seeing it go from there.

所以你開始看到它從那裡開始。

But that's usually the first indicator is on the weight side.

但這通常是第一個指標是體重方面。

Got it.

知道了。

So I guess what you're saying is, you do believe that you should see some reacceleration here, and this isn't just a multi-year normalization pattern.

所以我想你的意思是，你確實相信你應該在這裡看到一些重新加速，而這不僅僅是一個多年的正常化模式。

Well, I think that for sure, we've been in a longer slow cycle than any of us ever anticipated.

嗯，我認為可以肯定的是，我們所處的緩慢週期比我們任何人預期的都要長。

Typically, when we go through a down period, it's three to four quarters.

通常，當我們經歷低迷期時，會持續三到四個季度。

And to be into this now for so long is probably somewhat skewed, as you mentioned, by COVID creating a lot of acceleration.

正如您所提到的，由於新冠肺炎疫情造成了很大的加速，現在這麼長時間的投入可能會有些偏差。

I mean, we grew $1 billion of revenue in 2021 and another $1 billion of revenue in 2022.

我的意思是，我們在 2021 年增加了 10 億美元的收入，在 2022 年又增加了 10 億美元的收入。

So maybe now, things -- we've gone through a longer slow cycle after seeing a big upcycle there.

所以也許現在，在看到一個大的上升週期之後，我們已經經歷了一個更長的緩慢週期。

But like I mentioned, I think that we're down.

但就像我提到的，我認為我們已經失敗了。

The industry is down about 15% from second quarter of 2021.

該產業較 2021 年第二季下降約 15%。

The industry, if you go back to '09, it was on a pretty consistent growth path from '09 to '21.

如果你回到 09 年，這個產業從 09 年到 21 年一直處於相當一致的成長之路。

And ATA continues to suggest that there's growth opportunities for LTL, and we believe that as well.

ATA 繼續顯示零擔運輸有成長機會，我們也相信這一點。

We've seen the trends developing over time with e-commerce, that effect on supply chains.

我們已經看到電子商務隨著時間的推移而發展的趨勢，這對供應鏈產生了影響。

If we continue to see near-shoring and reshoring activities, that creates a lot of freight demand and opportunity for LTL.

如果我們繼續看到近岸和回流活動，就會為零擔運輸創造大量貨運需求和機會。

And so we've benefited from that over time and would expect that both the industry and ourselves will benefit from those trends.

因此，隨著時間的推移，我們已經從中受益，並期望行業和我們自己都將從這些趨勢中受益。

So I think we've got to come out of the ditch, and we will, based on all the feedback that we have from customers and continuing those conversations, I think we get right back to some normalization.

因此，我認為我們必須走出困境，我們將根據客戶提供的所有回饋並繼續進行這些對話，我認為我們會立即恢復正常化。

And then we'll see that the industry continue to grow from there.

然後我們將看到該行業從那裡繼續增長。

And we'd expect that our market share will continue to grow as well.

我們預計我們的市場份額也將繼續增長。

And we've increased our market share.

我們也增加了市場佔有率。

We were at about 6% share back in 2012.

2012 年我們的市佔率約為 6%。

And we're at 12% to 13% today.

今天我們的比例是 12% 到 13%。

So we've been able to significantly increase share and have been the biggest market share winner, really, over the last 10 years.

因此，在過去 10 年裡，我們確實能夠大幅增加份額，並成為最大的市場份額贏家。

And service is what wins share.

而服務才是贏得份額的關鍵。

You got to have capacity.

你得有能力。

And there's been a lot of talk about the shift in capacity from the Yellow service centers that have been reallocated, but only about half of those facilities have been reallocated thus far.

關於重新分配的黃色服務中心的容量轉移的討論很多，但到目前為止，只有大約一半的設施得到了重新分配。

But once demand recovers, I think that you're going to see a more capacity-constrained industry and our service winning share again for us into the future.

但一旦需求恢復，我認為您將看到一個產能更加受限的行業，而我們的服務將在未來再次為我們贏得份額。

So that's why we're committed to executing on our CapEx programs and trying to invest ahead of that curve.

這就是為什麼我們致力於執行我們的資本支出計劃並嘗試提前投資。

And we're there right now.

我們現在就在那裡。

We've got about 30% excess capacity.

我們的產能過剩了大約30%。

That's more than we typically would have in our service center network.

這比我們服務中心網路中通常擁有的數量還要多。

But that's what gives us confidence that once we start growing again, we can see those really strong incremental margins that we've been able to produce in the past and produce a lot of profitable growth.

但這讓我們有信心，一旦我們再次開始成長，我們就可以看到我們過去能夠產生的真正強勁的增量利潤，並產生大量的利潤成長。

But it's going to take that inflection in the economy before we can get back to seeing those strong revenue growth trends and operational improvement.

但要等到經濟出現轉折點後，我們才能重新看到強勁的營收成長趨勢和營運改善。

I'm sorry, just adding on real quick, operating days on 4Q, if you don't mind?

抱歉，如果您不介意的話，只是添加第四季度的快速營運天數？

Yes, we have 62 days this year versus 61 in 4Q of '23.

是的，今年有 62 天，而 2023 年第四季有 61 天。

Bascome Majors, Susquehanna.

巴斯科姆專業，薩斯奎哈納。

Adam, as we think about the profitability of the business, as we get into next year in a world that's been at best seasonal and a lot of times sub-seasonal from a demand standpoint for quite some time now, as you noted earlier, can you level set what your view of a seasonal margin performance would be in the first quarter and even the second quarter, just so we can gut check our models?

亞當，當我們考慮業務的盈利能力時，當我們進入明年的世界時，從需求的角度來看，在相當長的一段時間內，充其量是季節性的，很多時候是次季節性的，正如您先前指出的，可以您設定了您對第一季甚至第二季季節性利潤率表現的看法，這樣我們就可以直觀地檢查我們的模型？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes, the first quarter is typically 100 basis points increase.

是的，第一季通常會增加 100 個基點。

And again, that's if there's no real major adjustment from an insurance standpoint, the actual adjustments that we go through in 4Q.

再說一遍，如果從保險的角度來看沒有真正的重大調整，我們將在第四季進行實際調整。

So kind of normalizing for that.

對此進行了正常化。

And then the second quarter is where we get the improvement.

第二季是我們有進步的地方。

And that's where revenue is accelerating generally, and our operating ratio typically improves 400 to 450 basis points in the second quarter versus the first.

這就是收入普遍加速的地方，第二季度我們的營運比率通常比第一季提高 400 到 450 個基點。

And obviously, when we get into a period where you have -- not that I'm calling this now, but if we get into an environment, if you go back into the years like 2017, for example, where if you can get above sequential revenue growth, then it gives more opportunity to put it to the bottom line.

顯然，當我們進入一個時期時，不是我現在所說的，而是如果我們進入一個環境，​​如果你回到 2017 年這樣的年份，例如，如果你能夠超越如果收入連續增長，那麼就有更多機會將其計入利潤。

The way our cost structure is split out now, in the most recent quarter and the third quarter, our direct cost is a percent of revenue.

我們的成本結構現在的劃分方式是，在最近一個季度和第三季度，我們的直接成本佔收入的百分比。

We're about 52%, and our overhead costs were between 20% and 21%.

我們的比例約為 52%，管理費用在 20% 至 21% 之間。

So it's all that leverage that we have on those fixed costs when you get into that revenue growth environment that allows that operating ratio to swing generally and outperforming normal seasonality, if you will, when you're in those first year or two of the upcycle.

因此，當您進入收入成長環境時，我們對這些固定成本所擁有的所有槓桿作用使營業比率普遍波動並超越正常的季節性，如果您願意的話，當您處於上升週期的第一年或第二年時。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Tom Wadewitz, UBS.

湯姆‧瓦德維茨，瑞銀集團。

Yes, great.

是的，太好了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

So I wanted to see if you could offer some thoughts on kind of where you think pricing bottoms and then if inflation is maybe acting differently this cycle.

因此，我想看看您是否可以就您認為的定價觸底位置提出一些想法，然後通膨在本週期的表現是否可能有所不同。

It seems like that's been a source of some pressure on margin.

這似乎是利潤率壓力的一個來源。

So if you see shipment stabilized and you go into next year, do you think about we need 4%?

因此，如果您看到出貨量穩定並進入明年，您認為我們需要 4% 嗎？

We just need to keep getting that 4% in order to stay flat on margin?

我們只需要繼續獲得 4% 就能保持利潤率持平嗎？

Again, if backdrop is stability in shipments, do you get any help on inflation easing, or is it -- just how you think about it.

再說一次，如果背景是出貨量穩定，那麼您是否會在通膨緩解方面得到任何幫助，或者是——這只是您的想法。

Maybe it's like a price-cost-spread question or what you think about price relative to maybe what you got in prior down cycles.

也許這就像一個價格成本價差問題，或者你對價格相對於你在之前的下行週期中得到的價格的看法。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes, that's a good observation, Tom.

是的，這是一個很好的觀察，湯姆。

I mean, that variance in revenue per shipment and cost per shipment, over time, we've targeted trying to achieve 100 to 150 basis points of spread of price over cost to support the investment in capacity and technology and so forth.

我的意思是，隨著時間的推移，每次發貨的收入和每次發貨的成本存在差異，我們的目標是努力實現價格與成本之間的100 到150 個基點的差距，以支持產能和技術等方面的投資。

And that's effectively reconciled with what our long-term annual operating ratio improvement has been as well.

這實際上也與我們的長期年度營運比率的改善相一致。

And kind of what I was just saying earlier was that first year of recovery, you get the benefit of the volumes coming in.

我之前說過的是，在復甦的第一年，你會從銷售的增加中受益。

And so it helps you from a cost-per-shipment standpoint on the -- from an overhead side, you start getting all that leverage.

因此，從每次運輸成本的角度來看，它可以幫助您——從管理費用來看，您開始獲得所有的槓桿作用。

But this year, we had started out after seeing some inflation on cost per shipment.

但今年，我們在看到每批貨物的成本出現一定程度的上漲後就開始了。

Our target for this year was to see cost per shipment core, cost per shipment inflation in the 4% to 4.5% range.

我們今年的目標是讓每件核心出貨成本、每件出貨成本通膨率控制在 4% 至 4.5% 範圍內。

And I think that's where we'll end up averaging for the year.

我認為這就是我們今年的平均水平。

And so we're kind of back to normal, if you will.

如果你願意的話，我們已經恢復正常了。

Our longer-term average has been 3.5% to 4%.

我們的長期平均成長率為 3.5% 至 4%。

And so the volume weakness has kept us a tad north of what that longer-term trend has been.

因此，成交量疲軟使我們稍微偏離了長期趨勢。

But we'll continue to execute on a bid-by-bid basis.

但我們將繼續逐一執行。

I mean, our philosophy is to look at each customer as their bids come due and look at what the opportunities are and the profitability of the account and try to ask for increases that will offset our cost inflation.

我的意思是，我們的理念是在每個客戶的出價到期時關注他們，看看機會是什麼以及帳戶的盈利能力，並嘗試要求增加價格以抵消我們的成本膨脹。

And so those are the conversations that we have, and that's what we'd expect to continue to have whatever year the upcycle starts.

這些就是我們所進行的對話，這就是我們期望在升級週期開始的任何一年繼續進行的對話。

The benefit and how we usually have really strong performance is all the new customers that are coming on board.

好處以及我們通常如何擁有真正強勁的業績是所有新客戶的加入。

And usually that drives that revenue and yield trend a little bit stronger as well.

通常這也會推動營收和收益率趨勢更加強勁。

And so those will be things that we'll look for whenever we do eventually get into that next part of the cycle where we're actually seeing some increases.

因此，每當我們最終進入周期的下一個階段時，我們都會尋找這些東西，我們實際上會看到一些成長。

But I don't think -- to your question about the [floor], we look at every quarter, just like we've done this year, as we progress through the year.

但我不認為——對於你關於[下限]的問題，我們會像今年一樣，隨著這一年的進展而關注每個季度。

Mix is constant.

混合是恆定的。

We're looking for increases because our costs aren't going down, and so we're looking to get increases, and that's what we'd expect to see sequentially, quarter after quarter.

我們正在尋求成長，因為我們的成本沒有下降，所以我們希望獲得成長，這就是我們期望逐季、逐季看到的情況。

Do you see a reason to think inflation is different kind of next year versus what you saw this year?

您是否有理由認為明年的通膨與今年的通膨有所不同？

So I think that we've got the opportunity.

所以我認為我們有機會。

I mean, again, just looking at on a per-share basis, if we can get into some volume recovery, that's going to be the best thing that that will happen.

我的意思是，僅以每股為基礎來看，如果我們能夠實現一定程度的銷售恢復，那將是最好的事情。

I mean, long-term operating ratio improvement is produced by two main ingredients, density and yield.

我的意思是，長期開工率的改善是由兩個主要因素產生的：密度和產量。

So we've lacked on the density side.

所以我們在密度方面有所欠缺。

We've been consistent with our yield performance the last couple of years, and that has what has supported our margins.

過去幾年我們的收益率表現一直保持一致，這支撐了我們的利潤率。

But once we can get the contribution from density coming through the network, that should keep some of those costs low.

但是，一旦我們能夠從網路密度中獲得貢獻，這應該會降低其中一些成本。

And it comes through, as I was referencing earlier.

正如我之前提到的，它已經實現了。

Our team's done a phenomenal job of managing through in a lower-density environment, keeping our surplus metrics high and keeping those direct costs.

我們的團隊在低密度環境中進行了出色的管理，保持了較高的盈餘指標並保持了這些直接成本。

I mean, in the first and second quarter, we had improvement in our direct cost as a percent of revenue.

我的意思是，在第一季和第二季度，我們的直接成本佔收入的百分比有所改善。

So we've done a great job managing through this down part of the cycle, but that's going to create a lot of opportunity.

因此，我們在管理週期的下半部分方面做得很好，但這將創造很多機會。

If you've got higher weight per shipment, that's going to be more revenue per shipment performance when the cost to pick up is probably the same.

如果您的每批貨物重量較高，那麼在提貨成本可能相同的情況下，每批貨物的收入將會更高。

The cost to move across the dock is consistent as well.

穿過碼頭的費用也是一致的。

So those are all those factors that will go in and why we generally see the cost per shipment kind of outperforming the longer-term average, if you will, when we get into those other parts of the of the cycle and they offset.

因此，這些都是將要考慮的因素，也是為什麼當我們進入周期的其他部分並且它們相互抵消時，我們通常會看到每次發貨的成本會優於長期平均水平（如果你願意的話）。

We've had tremendous inflation over the last couple of years. 65% of our costs are salaries, wages, and benefits, so that's the biggest driver.

過去幾年我們經歷了嚴重的通貨膨脹。我們 65% 的成本是薪資、薪資和福利，所以這是最大的驅動因素。

But as we run an efficient network and can eliminate miles from our system -- now that's time and that's fuel.

但當我們運行一個高效的網路並且可以消除我們系統中的里程時——現在就是時間，就是燃料。

But we've had tremendous inflation with the cost of new equipment, or maintenance and repair costs, on a per-mile basis.

但我們的新設備成本或每英里的維護和修理成本已經出現了巨大的通貨膨脹。

Significantly, I think we've managed that a little better this year.

值得注意的是，我認為今年我們在這方面做得更好了一些。

That insurance cost in our industry and premium costs have been double digits.

我們行業的保險成本和保費成本已經達到兩位數。

I mean, this is something that all carriers are facing, and we're not immune to it.

我的意思是，這是所有營運商都面臨的問題，我們也不能倖免。

But we've been fortunate to have operating efficiencies to offset many of these higher inflationary items that we've seen when you go line by line on the income statement.

但我們很幸運，營運效率能夠抵消許多通膨較高的項目，當你在損益表上逐行查看時，我們已經看到了這些項目。

Right.

正確的。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Bruce Chan, Stifel.

布魯斯·陳，斯蒂菲爾。

Hey, good morning, guys.

嘿，早上好，夥計們。

Just want to wrap up the wait-per-shipment discussion here.

只是想在這裡結束關於每次發貨等待的討論。

Marty, you mentioned that you were getting fewer skids per customer.

馬蒂，您提到每個客戶獲得的滑行更少。

Is your sense that that's all related to market softness or any pockets of others, maybe gunning for customer wallet share, especially as they've been improving service?

您是否覺得這一切都與市場疲軟或其他人的口袋有關，也許是為了爭奪客戶的錢包份額，特別是因為他們一直在改善服務？

And then maybe this is a little bit in the weeds, but any comments on sales force incentives that may be aimed at more business from existing customers versus new accounts that you can share with?

也許這有點雜草叢生，但是對於銷售人員激勵措施的任何評論可能旨在從現有客戶那裡獲得更多業務，而不是您可以分享的新客戶？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Sure, yes.

當然，是的。

The reduction in weight per shipment is definitely our customers just shipping less boxes on the skid.

每次運輸重量的減少肯定是我們的客戶在滑道上運輸的箱子數量減少了。

So we see that, as Adam said, we're positive that that will pick up in maybe the fourth and first quarter as Christmas comes around, and you got quite a bit of holiday shipping coming up.

因此，正如亞當所說，我們確信隨著聖誕節的到來，這一情況可能會在第四季度和第一季度有所回升，並且會有相當多的假日運輸即將到來。

So we're cautiously optimistic for that.

因此我們對此持謹慎樂觀態度。

And as far as sales incentives, we incent our reps on a quarterly basis based on revenue growth, operating ratio, and service.

就銷售激勵而言，我們每季根據收入成長、營運比率和服務對銷售代表進行激勵。

So we paid out in the last quarter, and we looked to pay out in this quarter.

所以我們在上個季度支付了費用，我們希望在本季支付。

So they're incented pretty well to increase their business, and that's their main goal.

因此，他們非常有動力增加業務，這是他們的主要目標。

So I've got confidence in our sales team to go out there and sell our value proposition and gain additional shipments.

因此，我對我們的銷售團隊充滿信心，他們會出去推銷我們的價值主張並獲得額外的出貨量。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Jeff Kauffman, Vertical Research Partners.

傑夫考夫曼，垂直研究夥伴。

Thank you very much, and congratulations on the Mastio accolades.

非常感謝，並祝賀 Mastio 獲得榮譽。

I think all the good questions have been asked at this point, but I'd like to drill down a little bit on tonnage.

我認為現在已經提出了所有好的問題，但我想深入探討噸位。

We do follow railroads and some other industries where they say, okay, well, this part of the economy was a little weaker this quarter, this part of the economy a little stronger.

我們確實關注鐵路和其他一些行業，他們說，好吧，好吧，本季這部分經濟有點疲軟，這部分經濟有點強勁。

I'm assuming that the truckload multi-stop is more of a retail versus an industrial product.

我假設卡車多站更多的是零售產品而不是工業產品。

But if you look across your customer base, I know your comment was mix is consistent.

但如果你看看你的客戶群，我知道你的評論是一致的。

But some customers ship heavier stuff; some customers ship lighter stuff.

但有些客戶運送的貨物較重；有些客戶會運送較輕的東西。

Where are you seeing pockets of weaker-than-expected activity in your customer base?

您在哪些客戶群中發現了一些弱於預期的活動？

Where are you seeing pockets of stronger-than-expected activity?

您在哪些地方看到了強於預期的活動？

Yes, I don't know that -- we get very granular with how we look at our business and slice it, dice it, by SIC code, but generally just try to group them generally together as industrial and retail.

是的，我不知道這一點——我們對如何看待我們的業務非常細緻，並根據 SIC 代碼對其進行切片、切塊，但通常只是嘗試將它們大致分為工業和零售。

But yes, I don't know that we've seen anything that has varied greatly from what our expectations would be.

但是，是的，我不知道我們是否看到任何與我們的期望有很大差異的事情。

I think that, like I mentioned earlier, the industrial performance has been weaker.

我認為，正如我之前提到的，工業表現一直較弱。

Last year, it was probably holding up a little bit better than what the ISM trend would have indicated.

去年，它的表現可能比 ISM 趨勢所顯示的要好一些。

But I think just some of that was due to -- we were continuing to win new customers, and we were getting some of the new customer activity.

但我認為其中部分原因是——我們繼續贏得新客戶，並且我們獲得了一些新客戶活動。

And we're continuing to get new customers in every month.

我們每個月都會繼續吸引新客戶。

We look at our reporting and business that we've won or that we've lost, and we're continuing to win new accounts.

我們審視我們贏得或失去的報告和業務，並且我們正在繼續贏得新客戶。

And so maybe some of those have been more on the retail side, and that's supported why retail is outperformed.

因此，也許其中一些更多是在零售方面，這也支持了零售業表現優於大盤的原因。

But we've got certain commodities that we haul that obviously are going to stay.

但我們運送的某些商品顯然會留下來。

If you are hauling food products, those are going to be consistent through the cycle, pharmaceuticals, things of that nature.

如果您要運輸食品，那麼這些產品將在整個週期、藥品和此類性質的物品中保持一致。

And so we've seen pretty consistent performance related to what we'd expect.

因此，我們看到了與我們預期相當一致的性能。

Probably the thing that has been most positive has been the consistency of our market share.

也許最積極的事情是我們市場份額的一致性。

And I've been really pleased that we've not lost, really, any customer accounts.

我真的很高興我們沒有失去任何客戶帳戶。

We've not lost lanes from customers.

我們沒有失去顧客的管道。

So we've been able to keep those relationships intact.

所以我們能夠保持這些關係完好無損。

And we're primed and ready whenever those customers call and if they've got two shipments per week.

只要客戶打電話並且每週有兩批貨物，我們就會做好準備。

Once the orders for their products pick up, those two turn into three to four to five to 10.

一旦他們的產品訂單增加，這兩家公司就會變成三到四到五到十。

And all of a sudden, instead of making a stop, we're dropping a trailer and getting a full trailer load of outbound product from the manufacturing account.

突然之間，我們沒有停下來，而是放下一輛拖車，從製造帳戶中取出一整輛拖車的出站產品。

That's kind of how this thing will take back off again when we start seeing increased order activity.

當我們開始看到訂單活動增加時，這就是這種情況將再次恢復的方式。

But it's going to take some time, I think, to get there.

但我認為，要達到這個目標還需要一些時間。

We're primed, in position.

我們已做好準備，就位。

We've had -- continuing to stay engaged our sales team does with our customers to understand what their needs are.

我們的銷售團隊繼續與客戶保持聯繫，以了解他們的需求。

We're in the midst right now of going through the time of year where we build a very detailed bottoms-up forecast to help develop what our strategic planning process to prepare for next year and what that will look like.

我們現在正處於一年中的這個時期，我們會制定非常詳細的自下而上的預測，以幫助制定我們為明年做準備的策略規劃流程以及它將是什麼樣子。

And so we're very engaged with our customers right now to understand what their needs or musts will look like as we go into 2025.

因此，我們現在正在與客戶密切合作，以了解他們的需求或必須在 2025 年到來時會是什麼樣子。

But like I've said in response to multiple questions, we're not out of the woods yet, so to speak, but there's some reasons to be optimistic based on what our trends have looked like thus far into October.

但就像我在回答多個問題時所說的那樣，可以這麼說，我們還沒有走出困境，但根據我們截至 10 月的趨勢，有一些理由保持樂觀。

Being closer to seasonality, with respect to tonnage, October versus September, that's the first time that we've been able to say that for some time and to see an increase in weight for shipment.

就噸位而言，十月與九月更接近季節性，這是我們一段時間以來第一次能夠這麼說，並且看到裝運重量有所增加。

Those are all positive indicators for what may come for the rest of this fourth quarter, and then we'll see what next year holds.

這些都是第四季度剩餘時間可能出現的積極指標，然後我們將看看明年會發生什麼。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you for that answer, and that's my one.

謝謝你的回答，這就是我的回答。

This concludes our question-and-answer session.

我們的問答環節到此結束。

I would like to turn the conference back over to Adam Satterfield for any closing remarks.

我想將會議轉回亞當·薩特菲爾德發表閉幕詞。

Well, thank you all for your participation today.

好的，謝謝大家今天的參與。

We appreciate your questions, and feel free to give us a call if you have anything further.

我們感謝您的提問，如果您有任何疑問，請隨時致電我們。

Thanks, and have a great day.

謝謝，祝你有美好的一天。

The conference has now concluded.

會議現已結束。

Thank you for attending today's presentation.

感謝您參加今天的演講。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。