奧多明尼昂貨運 (ODFL) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Old Dominion Freight Line second-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

早安，歡迎參加 Old Dominion Freight Line 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意此事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Jack Atkins, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議交給投資者關係總監傑克·阿特金斯 (Jack Atkins)。請繼續。

Thank you, Gary, and good morning, everyone, and welcome to the second-quarter 2024 conference call for Old Dominion Freight Line. Today's call is being recorded and will be available for replay beginning today and through July 31, 2024, by dialing 1-877-344-7529, access code 9201305. The replay of the webcast may also be accessed for 30 days at the company's website.

謝謝加里，大家早上好，歡迎參加 Old Dominion Freight Line 2024 年第二季電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音中，從今天開始直至 2024 年 7 月 31 日，您可以透過撥打 1-877-344-7529（訪問代碼 9201305）重播。 。

This conference call may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements, among others, regarding Old Dominion's expected financial and operating performance. For this purpose, any statements made during this call that are not statements of historical fact may be deemed to be forward-looking statements. Without limiting the foregoing, the words believes, anticipates, plans, expects, and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements.

本次電話會議可能包含 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述，包括有關 Old Dominion 預期財務和經營業績的陳述等。為此目的，本次電話會議期間所做的任何非歷史事實陳述的陳述都可能被視為前瞻性陳述。在不限制前述規定的情況下，「相信」、「預期」、「計劃」、「期望」和類似表達等詞語旨在識別前瞻性陳述。

You are hereby cautioned that these statements may be affected by the important factors, among others, set forth in Old Dominion's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission and in this morning's news release. And consequently, actual operations and results may differ materially from the results discussed in the forward-looking statements. The company undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. As a final note before we begin, we welcome your questions today and ask that you limit yourself to just one question at a time before returning to the queue.

特此提醒您，這些陳述可能會受到 Old Dominion 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件以及今天上午的新聞稿中所述的重要因素的影響。因此，實際營運和結果可能與前瞻性陳述中討論的結果有重大差異。本公司不承擔因新資訊、未來事件或其他原因而公開更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。作為我們開始之前的最後一點，我們歡迎您今天提出問題，並要求您在返回隊列之前一次只能回答一個問題。

At this time, I would like to turn the conference call over to Mr. Marty Freeman, the company's President and Chief Executive Officer, for opening remarks. Marty, please go ahead, sir.

現在，我想將電話會議轉交給公司總裁兼執行長馬蒂·弗里曼先生致開幕詞。馬蒂，請繼續，先生。

Good morning, and welcome to our second-quarter conference call. With me today on the call is Adam Satterfield, our CFO. After some brief remarks, we will be glad to take your questions. Old Dominion second-quarter results represent our third consecutive quarter with year-over-year growth in revenue and earnings per diluted share despite the ongoing sluggish in the domestic economy. These results were made possible by the hard work and dedication of the OD family of employees who continue to execute our long-term strategic plan during the second quarter.

早上好，歡迎參加我們的第二季電話會議。今天與我一起參加電話會議的是我們的財務長 Adam Satterfield。簡短發言後，我們將很樂意回答您的問題。儘管國內經濟持續低迷，Old Dominion 第二季度業績代表我們連續第三個季度收入和稀釋每股收益同比增長。這些成果是 OD 家族員工的辛勤工作和奉獻精神所取得的，他們在第二季度繼續執行我們的長期策略計畫。

I'd like to congratulate our outstanding team for maintaining our commitment to providing superior customer service at a fair price as well as our disciplined approach to managing yield, our laser focus on operating efficiencies and controlling our discretionary spending.

我要祝賀我們傑出的團隊繼續致力於以公平的價格提供優質的客戶服務，並以嚴格的方式管理產量，高度關注營運效率並控制可自由支配的支出。

Delivering superior service at a fair price is the cornerstone of our business model, and our unmatched value proposition has continued to differentiate Old Dominion Freight Line from our competition. I'm pleased to report that during the second quarter, we once again provided an on-time service level of 99% and a cargo claims ratio of 0.1%. Constantly delivering the level of service for our customers regardless of the economic cycle has strengthened our customer relationships over time. We help our customers keep their promises they have made to their customers by delivering their freight on time and damage free, which, in turn, allows us to continue to help the world keep their promises.

以公平的價格提供優質的服務是我們商業模式的基石，我們無與倫比的價值主張繼續使 Old Dominion Freight Line 在競爭中脫穎而出。我很高興地向大家報告，第二季度我們再次提供了 99% 的準時服務水準和 0.1% 的貨物索賠率。無論經濟週期如何，始終為我們的客戶提供高水準的服務，隨著時間的推移，我們的客戶關係得到了加強。我們透過按時、無損壞地交付貨物來幫助客戶兌現他們對客戶的承諾，這反過來又使我們能夠繼續幫助世界兌現他們的承諾。

The consistency of our service is also validated by Mastio & Company who has named OD as the number one national LTL carrier for 14 consecutive years. Our strong track record of industry-leading service also means our customers view us as a trusted partner, which supports our consistent cost-based approach to pricing. Our long-term yield management strategy is designed to help offset our cost inflation while also supporting further investments in the capacity and technology that our customers expect.

我們服務的一致性也得到了 Mastio & Company 的驗證，該公司連續 14 年將 OD 評為全國第一零擔承運商。我們在行業領先服務方面的良好記錄也意味著我們的客戶將我們視為值得信賴的合作夥伴，這支持我們始終如一的基於成本的定價方法。我們的長期收益管理策略旨在幫助抵消成本通膨，同時支持對客戶期望的產能和技術的進一步投資。

We have been one of the only LTL carriers to constantly and consistently invest in new capacity over the past 10 years, which has supported our ability to almost double our market share over the same period. We are committed to constantly investing ahead of our anticipated growth curve, which is another differentiating quality for Old Dominion in what has been and what we believe will continue to be a capacity-constrained industry.

過去 10 年來，我們一直是唯一一家不斷投資新運能的零擔運輸公司之一，這支持了我們能夠在同一時期將市場份額幾乎翻倍。我們致力於在預期成長曲線之前不斷進行投資，這是 Old Dominion 在過去以及我們認為將繼續是產能受限行業中的另一個與眾不同的品質。

Over the past 10 years, we have invested over $2 billion in our service center network, and we plan to invest another $350 million on real estate this year. These investments have positioned us to grow with our customers over time through the ups and downs of the economic cycle, which hasn't been the case with most of our competitors. Maintaining excess capacity in our service center network, which has approximately 30% at the end of the second quarter does create some short-term cost headwinds during periods with slower demand, but we are confident that the capacity will be critical to support our customers when the economic environment starts to improve and business levels reaccelerate.

在過去 10 年裡，我們在服務中心網路上投資了超過 20 億美元，今年計劃在房地產方面再投資 3.5 億美元。這些投資使我們能夠在經濟週期的起起落落中與客戶一起成長，而我們大多數競爭對手的情況卻並非如此。維持我們服務中心網路的過剩產能（第二季末約為30%）確實會在需求放緩期間產生一些短期成本阻力，但我們相信，在需求放緩期間，這些產能對於支持我們的客戶至關重要。

With all that said, our network investments are not being made simply to handle the overflow during stronger periods of economic activity. Instead, as we look into the future, we believe demand for service-sensitive LTL capacity will continue to grow. We believe that the combination of our best-in-class service and disciplined investments in network capacity position us to capture even more of the growing market in the years ahead.

話雖如此，我們的網路投資不僅僅是為了應對經濟活動強勁時期的溢出問題。相反，當我們展望未來時，我們相信對服務敏感的零擔運力的需求將繼續增長。我們相信，一流的服務與對網路容量的嚴格投資相結合，使我們能夠在未來幾年佔領更多不斷增長的市場。

Over the last decade, Old Dominion Freight line has won more market share than any other LTL carrier by consistently executing our strategic plan and remaining focused on long-term opportunities instead of short-term challenges. While we continue to wait on a recovery in the domestic economy, we believe the investments in our network, our technology and most importantly, our people, will continue to drive value to our customers. As a result, we believe we are the best positioned carrier in our industry to win market share over the long term while further enhancing shareholder value.

在過去的十年中，Old Dominion Freight Line 透過一致地執行我們的策略計劃並專注於長期機會而不是短期挑戰，贏得了比任何其他零擔運輸承運商更多的市場份額。在我們繼續等待國內經濟復甦的同時，我們相信對我們的網路、技術以及最重要的是我們的員工的投資將繼續為我們的客戶帶來價值。因此，我們相信我們是行業中處於最佳位置的承運商，能夠長期贏得市場份額，同時進一步提高股東價值。

Thank you today for joining us this morning, and now Adam will discuss our second-quarter financial results in greater detail. Adam?

感謝您今天早上加入我們，現在 Adam 將更詳細地討論我們第二季的財務表現。亞當？

Thank you, Marty, and good morning. Old Dominion's revenue for the second quarter of 2024 of $1.5 billion was a 6.1% increase from the prior year. The increase in revenue was due to a 4.4% increase in LTL revenue per hundredweight and a 1.9% increase in LTL tons per day. Our operating ratio improved to 71.9%, which contributed to the 11.3% increase in earnings per diluted share to $1.48 for the quarter. On a sequential basis, our revenue per day for the second quarter increased 2.6% when compared to the first quarter of 2024, with LTL tons per day increasing 3.3% and LTL shipments per day increasing 3.2%.

謝謝你，馬蒂，早安。 Old Dominion 2024 年第二季的營收為 15 億美元，比上年成長 6.1%。收入成長的原因是每英擔零擔收入增加 4.4%，以及每天零擔噸數增加 1.9%。我們的營運比率提高至 71.9%，這使得本季稀釋後每股收益成長 11.3%，達到 1.48 美元。與 2024 年第一季相比，我們第二季的每日營收季增 2.6%，每日零擔噸數成長 3.3%，每日零擔貨運量成長 3.2%。

For comparison, the 10-year average sequential change for these metrics includes an increase of 8.7% in revenue per day, an increase of 5.8% in tons per day, and an increase of 6.5% in shipments per day. The monthly sequential changes in LTL tons per day during the second quarter were as follows: April increased 0.4% as compared to March, May increased 0.1% as compared to April, and June increased 1.9% as compared to May.The 10-year average change for these respective months is a decrease of 0.4% in April, an increase of 2.7% in May, and an increase of 2.3% in June.

相比之下，這些指標的 10 年平均連續變化包括每日收入增長 8.7%、每日噸數增長 5.8% 以及每日出貨量增長 6.5%。第二季每日零擔噸數月季增幅如下：4月份較上季3月成長0.4%，5月份較上季成長0.1%，6月份較上季成長1.9%。月下降0.4%，5月成長2.7%，6月成長2.3%。

I would like to note, however, that in years when Good Friday occurs in March, as it did this year, the average sequential change in the LTL tons per day from March to April is a 2.6% increase. For July, we expect our revenue per day will increase by approximately 4% to 4.5% when compared to July of 2023, assuming the remaining days of the month follow normal historical trends. The growth rate in our revenue per day through the first half of July was relatively consistent with the second quarter.

然而，我想指出的是，在耶穌受難日發生在 3 月份的年份中，就像今年一樣，從 3 月到 4 月，每天的零擔噸數平均連續變化為 2.6%。假設該月的剩餘天數遵循正常的歷史趨勢，我們預計 7 月的每日收入將比 2023 年 7 月增加約 4% 至 4.5%。截至 7 月上半月，我們的每日營收成長率與第二季相對一致。

The comparisons have now become a little more difficult, however, as the final week of July last year was when we began to see freight diversion from a large competitor that ultimately filed for bankruptcy. We will provide the actual revenue-related details for July in our second quarter Form 10-Q. Our operating ratio improved 40 basis points to 71.9% for the second quarter of 2024 due primarily to the quality of our revenue growth and continued focus on operating efficiencies.

然而，現在比較變得有點困難，因為去年 7 月的最後一周我們開始看到一家最終申請破產的大型競爭對手的貨運轉移。我們將在第二季的 10-Q 表格中提供 7 月份的實際收入相關詳細資訊。 2024 年第二季度，我們的營運比率提高了 40 個基點，達到 71.9%，這主要歸功於我們的收入成長品質以及對營運效率的持續關注。

Our team continued to do a great job of managing our direct variable costs during the second quarter, which allowed us to improve these costs as a percent of revenue. Our overhead costs, however, continued to increase as a percent of revenue despite our best efforts to minimize discretionary spending. As we have often said before, the two main ingredients to long-term operating ratio improvement are the combination of density and yield, both of which generally require a favorable macroeconomic environment.

我們的團隊在第二季度繼續出色地管理直接可變成本，這使我們能夠提高這些成本佔收入的百分比。然而，儘管我們盡最大努力盡量減少可自由支配支出，但我們的管理費用佔收入的百分比仍在繼續增加。正如我們之前常說的，長期開工率改善的兩個主要因素是密度和產量的結合，而這兩者通常需要有利的宏觀經濟環境。

While we continue to execute on our yield management initiatives, it will likely take an improvement in the domestic economy before we see sustained momentum in shipping demand that generally leads to incremental market share opportunities and operating density. We remain confident that once we have both of these elements working again in our favor, our team can produce further improvement in our operating ratio and make progress towards our goal of achieving a sub-70 annual OR.

雖然我們繼續執行收益管理舉措，但我們可能需要國內經濟有所改善，才能看到航運需求的持續成長勢頭，這通常會帶來市場份額機會和營運密度的增加。我們仍然相信，一旦這兩個要素再次對我們有利，我們的團隊就可以進一步提高我們的營運比率，並朝著實現年度 OR 低於 70 的目標取得進展。

Old Dominion's cash flow from operations totaled $387.8 million and $811.7 million for the second quarter and first half of 2024, respectively, while capital expenditures were $238.1 million and $357.6 million for those same periods. We utilized $551.8 million and $637.1 million of cash for our share repurchase program during the second quarter and first half of 2024, respectively, while cash dividends totaled $56.0 million and $112.6 million for the same periods. This year-to-date total for share repurchases includes $40 million that is deferred until the final settlement occurs on our current accelerated share repurchase agreement, which would be no later than November of 2024.

Old Dominion 2024 年第二季和上半年的營運現金流分別為 3.878 億美元和 8.117 億美元，同期資本支出為 2.381 億美元和 3.576 億美元。 2024 年第二季和上半年，我們分別使用了 5.518 億美元和 6.371 億美元的現金用於股票回購計劃，而同期現金股利總計為 5,600 萬美元和 1.126 億美元。今年迄今的股票回購總額包括 4,000 萬美元，該金額將推遲到我們目前的加速股票回購協議達成最終和解（不遲於 2024 年 11 月）。

Our effective tax rate for the second quarter of 2024 was 24.5%, which was lower than originally expected due to the benefit of certain discrete tax items. The effective tax rate for the second quarter of 2023 was 25.4%. We currently anticipate our effective tax rate to be 25.0% for the third quarter.

我們2024年第二季的有效稅率為24.5%，由於某些離散稅項的好處，低於最初預期。 2023年第二季的有效稅率為25.4%。我們目前預計第三季的有效稅率為 25.0%。

This concludes our prepared remarks this morning. Operator, we'll be happy to open the floor for questions at this time.

我們今天早上準備好的演講到此結束。接線員，我們很樂意在此時開放提問。

(Operator Instructions) Jordan Alliger, Goldman Sachs.

（操作員指示）Jordan Alliger，高盛。

Yes, hi. Morning, and thanks for the update. I wonder, as you often do, is it possible to get some sense for, given the context of revenue per day and what you're seeing in the economy, how things could look seasonally 2Q to 3Q in terms of the operating ratio?

是的，嗨。早上好，感謝您的更新。我想知道，正如您經常做的那樣，考慮到每日收入的背景以及您在經濟中看到的情況，是否有可能了解第二季至第三季的營運比率季節性情況如何？

Yes, sure. Unfortunately, we're still dealing with an economy that's not contributing too much to us right now, with 55% to 60% of our revenue being industrial-related. The [ISM] continues to be below 50%. And I think that's 19 out of the past 20 months so it's hard to say what will happen from a top-line basis. And as you know, the revenue will dictate a lot of the performance, at least when we go sequentially.

是的，當然。不幸的是，我們所面臨的經濟目前對我們的貢獻並不大，我們 55% 到 60% 的收入與工業相關。 [ISM] 持續低於 50%。我認為這是過去 20 個月的 19 個月，因此很難從營收角度預測會發生什麼。如您所知，收入將決定許多績效，至少當我們按順序進行時。

But I feel like some things -- there have been some bright spots to look at in terms of the trend that we saw through June and so far this month in July from a revenue and a volume standpoint. So we'll see how that continues to play out as we progress through the quarter. And as we always do, we will give our mid-quarter update with the August performance once that is finished.

但我覺得有些事情——從收入和銷售的角度來看，從 6 月和 7 月到目前為止的趨勢來看，有一些亮點值得關注。因此，隨著本季度的進展，我們將看到這種情況如何繼續發揮作用。正如我們一貫所做的那樣，一旦完成，我們將提供季度中期的最新情況以及 8 月份的業績。

But based on kind of where we are today, normal seasonality is typically about a 50 basis point increase sequentially from the second to the third quarter. And I think that's achievable. It's certainly what the goal would be. And I think that regardless of which way the revenue goes, if we stay kind of flattish like we've seen from a quarter-to-quarter standpoint, typically, the average sequential change in revenue is about a 3.5% increase from the second to the third quarter.

但根據我們今天的情況，正常的季節性通常會從第二季到第三季依序增加約 50 個基點。我認為這是可以實現的。這當然是我們的目標。我認為，無論收入走向如何，如果我們保持像從季度到季度的角度看到的那樣持平，通常情況下，收入的平均連續變化從第二季度到第二季度增長了約 3.5%。 。

So where we follow along that spectrum from a top-line basis, I still think that's something along the lines of that 50 basis point sequential increase, plus or minus. Of course, we generally give ourselves kind of plus or minus 20 basis points. But I think that's something that's certainly very achievable for the third quarter.

因此，當我們從頂線基礎上追蹤該範圍時，我仍然認為這與 50 個基點的連續增長（加或減）類似。當然，我們通常會為自己加減20個基點。但我認為這在第三季肯定是可以實現的。

And just as a quick follow-up, if I could, just on the demand. You mentioned the sub-50 ISM and new orders index as well. As you sort of look ahead and talk to customers, do you feel that there could be finally some change in that as we move through the year? Or is it tough to tell still?

如果可以的話，就按照要求進行快速跟進。您也提到了 50 指數以下的 ISM 指數和新訂單指數。當您展望未來並與客戶交談時，您是否認為隨著這一年的推移，情況最終可能會發生一些變化？還是現在還很難說清楚？

Well, I think it's still tough to tell. I feel like things are starting to fall a little bit. Again, I felt like we had a good performance through June. We finally had some good sequential increase there from a volume standpoint and so a little bit of acceleration and somewhat similar to what we had in the final month of the first quarter with March there. But a nice increase from the May to June period.

嗯，我認為這仍然很難說。我感覺事情開始有點下降了。我再次感覺我們整個六月的表現都很好。從數量的角度來看，我們最終實現了一些良好的連續增長，因此有一點加速，有點類似於我們在第一季最後一個月（3 月）的情況。但從 5 月到 6 月期間出現了不錯的成長。

So it's something that we'll continue to watch. We've got the third quarter here and then we typically go through the seasonally slower fourth quarter and first quarter. But hopefully, some things are building. I think when you look at some of the macroeconomic factors would suggest that maybe some of the things that the Fed would watch would indicate that we may be closer to the interest rate environment may be improving a little bit and seeing some cuts out there that would certainly help from a business standpoint.

所以這是我們將繼續關注的事情。我們已經進入了第三季度，然後我們通常會經歷季節性放緩的第四季度和第一季。但希望一些事情正在建立。我認為，當你審視一些宏觀經濟因素時，你會發現，聯準會可能會關注的一些事情表明，我們可能更接近利率環境可能會有所改善的情況，並且會看到一些削減措施，這將有助於改善利率環境。

So it seems like we're coming close to the end of a long slow cycle, and we'll just have to continue to watch and see what's presented to us. But it certainly feels like we're seeing a little bit more opportunity out there than what we have been seeing.

因此，我們似乎即將結束一個漫長的緩慢週期，我們只能繼續觀察，看看會發生什麼。但確實感覺我們看到的機會比我們之前看到的要多一些。

Daniel Imbro, Stephens, Inc.

丹尼爾·因布羅，史蒂芬斯公司

Good morning, guys. Maybe, Adam, I wanted to ask one on the pricing side. I think the mid-quarter update suggested pricing was stable, June actually seemed to improve a bit. How is pricing continuing to July? Are we seeing any changes? And stepping back, just from an industry standpoint, demand remains tepid to your point. Can the industry support further GRIs and other rate increases in the back half of this year as comparisons get more difficult? Thanks.

早上好傢伙。亞當，也許我想問一下定價方面的問題。我認為季度中期的更新表明價格穩定，六月實際上似乎有所改善。定價如何持續到 7 月？我們看到任何變化嗎？退一步來說，僅從產業的角度來看，需求仍然不溫不火。隨著比較變得更加困難，業界能否支持今年下半年進一步提高 GRI 和其他利率？謝謝。

Yes. I think what we've seen is just a continuation of executing on our long-term yield management philosophy. We continue to target increases that offset our cost inflation and support the continued investment in capacity and in technologies that our customers expect from us. Our yield trend in June and what we're seeing thus far in July is pretty similar from a year-over-year standpoint. If you just look at normal seasonality in revenue per hundredweight, at least excluding fuel, normal sequential, what implied that for the full quarter, it would be up 4% to 4.5% that metric. And some of that will be some mix change that we'll go through, more so in August and September.

是的。我認為我們所看到的只是我們長期收益管理理念的持續執行。我們繼續以成長為目標，以抵消成本上漲，並支持客戶對我們期望的產能和技術的持續投資。從同比的角度來看，我們 6 月的殖利率趨勢與 7 月迄今的殖利率趨勢非常相似。如果你只看每英擔收入的正常季節性，至少不包括燃料，正常連續，這意味著整個季度該指標將增加 4% 至 4.5%。其中一些是我們將經歷的一些組合變化，尤其是在八月和九月。

If you think last year following the disruption to the industry, our weight per shipment decreased quite a bit as we move through August and September last year. Overall for the third quarter of '23, it was down about 30 pounds versus the second quarter of '23. So had that reduction in weight per shipment, and I would like to see that at least our weight per shipment has been stable. If that continues to increase further in a reflection if there is any improvement in the economy, then that just becomes more challenging from a mix standpoint. But so far, what we've seen in July is pretty consistent with where we were in the second quarter in June, in particular. So we'll continue to see how that plays out.

如果你想想去年產業受到干擾後，我們每批貨物的重量在去年八月和九月期間下降了很多。總體而言，23 年第三季的重量比 23 年第二季下降了約 30 磅。每批貨物的重量也減少了，我希望看到至少我們每批貨物的重量保持穩定。如果經濟有任何改善，這種情況繼續進一步增加，那麼從混合的角度來看，這就會變得更具挑戰性。但到目前為止，我們在 7 月所看到的情況與 6 月第二季的情況非常一致。所以我們將繼續看看結果如何。

Chris Wetherbee, Wells Fargo.

克里斯‧韋瑟比，富國銀行。

Hey, thanks. Good morning. Maybe, Adam, you could talk a little bit about weight per shipment trends. It's pretty flattish the last couple of quarters and certainly sequentially from 1Q to 2Q. Just kind of your general thoughts on how you see that playing out. Obviously, that could be part of just a sluggish economy as we're moving forward here, but you're going to get a sense of maybe what you're seeing in July, if there's any change in that?

嘿，謝謝。早安.也許，亞當，你可以談談每批貨物的重量趨勢。過去幾季的情況相當平淡，當然從第一季到第二季也是如此。只是您對如何看待這種情況的整體想法。顯然，這可能只是經濟低迷的一部分，因為我們正在向前邁進，但你可能會感覺到七月份的情況，是否有任何變化？

Yes. No real change in July, still kind of continuing to bounce around that 1,500 pound mark. And to me, I think that's what we've seen. Obviously, we saw the unique change that happened last year, right at the end of July, going into August and that took our weight down quite a bit, like I just mentioned. But it just feels like we've been bouncing along the bottom. And I think that's an indicator really where the industrial economy has been as well.

是的。 7 月沒有真正的變化，仍然在 1,500 英鎊大關附近繼續反彈。對我來說，我認為這就是我們所看到的。顯然，我們看到了去年發生的獨特變化，就在七月底，進入八月，這使我們的體重減輕了很多，就像我剛才提到的那樣。但感覺就像我們一直在底部彈跳。我認為這也是工業經濟狀況的一個真正指標。

So I think that should be one of the first signs and early indicators if we start seeing some incremental weight on each shipment that we're picking up that orders might be picking up and that would obviously be good for a lot of measurements. We can get more weight per shipment. Generally, that's going to lead to the improvement in operating efficiencies and generally that leads into improved volumes in general if the underlying economy truly is improving. So all things that we are very prepared for in terms of the capacity in our service center network, the capacity of our people and our fleet. We are primed and in position to respond whenever the market does, in fact, inflect to the positive.

因此，我認為，如果我們開始看到我們收到的每批貨物的重量有所增加，那麼這應該是第一個跡象和早期指標之一，訂單可能會增加，這顯然對許多測量都有好處。我們每次發貨可以獲得更多的重量。一般來說，如果基礎經濟確實在改善，這將導致營運效率的提高，並且通常會導致銷量的提高。因此，我們在服務中心網路的容量、人員和車隊的容量方面都做好了充分的準備。事實上，每當市場出現正面變化時，我們都已做好準備並做好了應對的準備。

Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

斯科特集團，沃爾夫研究。

Hey, thanks, Adam. Just a couple of follow-ups, if I can. First, the 4% to 4.5% revenue. Any sense of bringing that down between tonnage and then yield? And then I just want to make sure I'm understanding your OR commentary about the 50 basis points [worse], which is normal. Are you saying even if we don't get the full typical 3.5% sequential revenue increase, we can still stay with the normal OR degradation and it's not worse? Is that the message that you're giving?

嘿，謝謝，亞當。如果可以的話，只需進行一些後續行動。首先，4%到4.5%的收入。有沒有辦法降低噸位和產量之間的差距？然後我只是想確保我理解你對 50 個基點 [更糟] 的 OR 評論，這是正常的。您是說，即使我們沒有獲得典型的 3.5% 的連續收入成長，我們仍然可以保持正常的 OR 退化，而且情況並不更糟？這就是你要傳達的訊息嗎？

Yes. I think to answer that question, first, yes, I think that we're going to go with the 50 basis points being the target. And again, keep in mind, just like we said last quarter, put a plus or minus around that, not being that specific, anything can happen. But I think that our team is continuing to do a great job with managing costs in this lower volume environment. And we will continue to do so as we progress through the third quarter.

是的。我想回答這個問題，首先，是的，我認為我們將以 50 個基點為目標。再次請記住，就像我們上個季度所說的那樣，對此進行加號或減號，而不是那麼具體，任何事情都可能發生。但我認為我們的團隊在這種低產量環境中繼續出色地管理成本。隨著第三季的進展，我們將繼續這樣做。

And so obviously, it's a little bit easier. If we've got some revenue contribution, we typically have an increase in certain cost elements as we progress through the quarter. We're continuing to execute on our CapEx plan. So we will have incremental depreciation dollars in the third quarter versus the second.

顯然，這要容易一些。如果我們有一些收入貢獻，那麼隨著季度的進展，某些成本要素通常會增加。我們將繼續執行我們的資本支出計劃。因此，與第二季相比，第三季我們將出現增量折舊。

We have a wage increase that will go out on September 1 as well as it always does. So you get one month of that. But we'll continue to monitor and measure operating efficiencies. And we've been seeing some improvements there and have some other offsets as well continue to manage every discretionary dollar that's going out the door and managing to the business levels that we're seeing. So we'll continue to do all those things, but I certainly hope that we'll see a little bit of incremental revenue improvement, and that will make things easier, obviously, but we're going to continue to manage and have that hanging out there is our goal to achieve.

我們的薪資上漲將於 9 月 1 日開始，一如既往。這樣你就可以得到一個月的時間。但我們將繼續監控和衡量營運效率。我們已經看到了一些改進，並有一些其他的補償，並繼續管理每一筆可自由支配的資金，並管理到我們所看到的業務水平。因此，我們將繼續做所有這些事情，但我當然希望我們能看到一點增量收入的改善，這顯然會讓事情變得更容易，但我們將繼續管理並解決這個問題這就是我們要實現的目標。

And then any quick thoughts, record buyback in the quarter? Is this a change in sort of capital returns? Is this a new sort of run rate to think about going forward?

然後有什麼快速的想法，本季創紀錄的回購嗎？這是資本報酬率的變化嗎？這是值得考慮的新的運行率嗎？

No, it's no change. I think it's similar. It was a record level, as you say. But you go back a couple of years ago and when our stock performed similar to the big drop that we saw during the second quarter to get back to 2022, we spent $1.3 billion in total that year. So it had some pretty hefty quarters. It was just spread more through the year. But our stock was off 20%, 25% from 52-week highs going back to the last quarter's phone earnings call. And so as we've done in the past, we stepped in and we're more aggressive with our repurchases, and now the stock price has recovered a bit.

不，這沒有改變。我認為這是相似的。正如你所說，這是一個創紀錄的水平。但回到幾年前，當我們的股票表現與我們在 2022 年第二季看到的大幅下跌類似時，我們當年總共花了 13 億美元。所以它有一些相當大的地方。它只是在這一年中傳播得更多。但自上個季度的電話財報電話會議以來，我們的股價較 52 週高點下跌了 20%、25%。正如我們過去所做的那樣，我們介入並更加積極地回購，現在股價已經回升。

And we'll be going back more so to kind of our normalized grid-based approach to repurchasing shares. But we just stepped in a little bit more aggressively with the cash that we had on the balance sheet and purchased more during the second quarter, including an accelerated share repurchase agreement as well, which we still have got a little bit of about $40 million that was deferred on that agreement that should settle sometime late third quarter, early in the fourth quarter.

我們將更多地回到基於網格的標準化方法來回購股票。但我們只是用資產負債表上的現金更積極地介入，並在第二季度購買了更多現金，包括加速股票回購協議，我們仍然有大約 4000 萬美元的資金推遲了該協議，該協議應在第三季末第四季初的某個時候解決。

Ravi Shanker, Morgan Stanley.

拉維‧尚克，摩根士丹利。

So this is probably the first upcycle in a while, maybe ever, where it's not just you who has the excess capacity, but a lot of your peers do as well. I think you alluded to that in your prepared remarks as well. Do you have a sense that their approach to having this excess capacity and dealing with the drag on incremental margins is similar to your own? Or do you feel that they may be looking to deploy that capacity a little bit earlier than you guys?

因此，這可能是一段時間以來的第一次升級週期，也許是有史以來的第一次升級週期，不僅你擁有過剩產能，而且你的許多同行也擁有過剩產能。我想你在準備好的發言中也提到了這一點。您是否覺得他們處理過剩產能和應對增量利潤拖累的方法與您的類似？或者您認為他們可能比您更早部署這種能力？

I can't answer for what they're going to do with any measure of any excess capacity, any individual carrier has. But with respect to just looking at the industry broadly, I feel like that we're going to be a more capacity-constrained industry than we were previously. If you go back -- we estimate that shipping volumes are down about 15% from kind of the peak back in 2021.

我無法回答他們將如何處理任何單一運營商的過剩運力。但就廣義而言，我覺得我們將成為一個比以前更受產能限制的產業。如果你回顧過去——我們估計運輸量比 2021 年的高峰下降了約 15%。

And when you look at the number of service centers that have settled from that bankruptcy proceeding. Not all are in operation yet, but probably at least 10% and maybe more capacity will be coming out of the market. So all those shipments that were being picked up and delivered by that carrier, they are LTL shipments, they will come back to the market. And our market will recover to the levels where it was previously. And I believe we'll continue to increase further. So that's why we continue to believe and continue to invest ahead of our anticipated growth curve.

當你看看從破產程序中解決的服務中心的數量。尚未全部投入運營，但可能至少有 10% 甚至更多產能將退出市場。因此，所有由該承運人提取和交付的貨物都是零擔貨物，它們將返回市場。我們的市場將恢復到以前的水平。我相信我們將繼續進一步增加。這就是為什麼我們繼續相信並繼續在我們預期的成長曲線之前進行投資。

We don't see anything that has changed with the opportunities that we have for long-term market share opportunities, other than, perhaps, maybe they've gotten stronger as more shippers look for high-quality service carriers. Inventory management continues to be an operating focus, especially in a higher interest rate environment. I think it puts the burden on shippers to select high-quality carriers, and there's none better than Old Dominion. So we look at the market generally and believe we've got as strong an opportunity that we've ever had, and we think we're better positioned than any other carrier to capitalize on an improving industry.

我們沒有看到任何與我們所擁有的長期市場份額機會發生改變的事情，除了，也許，隨著越來越多的托運人尋找高品質的服務承運商，它們可能變得更強。庫存管理仍然是營運重點，尤其是在利率較高的環境下。我認為這給托運人帶來了選擇高品質承運人的負擔，而沒有比 Old Dominion 更好的了。因此，我們從整體上審視市場，並相信我們擁有前所未有的強大機會，而且我們認為我們比任何其他承運人都更有能力利用不斷改善的行業。

Tom Wadewitz, UBS.

湯姆‧瓦德維茨，瑞銀集團。

Yes, good morning. So Adam, I wanted to see if you could give us -- I apologize if I missed this, but I think just like the July tonnage and shipments, I think you talked about revenue terms but not the tonnage and shipments. I don't know if you want to give us, like, normal seasonality July versus June or year over year, but some kind of framework for thinking about shipments and tonnage in July.

是的，早安。所以亞當，我想看看你是否可以給我們- 如果我錯過了這一點，我很抱歉，但我認為就像7 月份的噸位和出貨量一樣，我認為你談論了收入條款，但沒有談論噸位和出貨量。我不知道您是否想向我們提供七月與六月或同比的正常季節性，但提供某種考慮七月出貨量和噸位的框架。

Yes. The breakdown, if you will, of the revenue, it's definitely in flux. I mean, like I mentioned, in the first part of this month, we were growing at a similar rate from a revenue per day standpoint as where we were for the second quarter and kind of that 6% range. And obviously, the comps have changed pretty considerably, mainly starting this week, in particular.

是的。如果你願意的話，收入的細目肯定是在變化的。我的意思是，就像我提到的，在本月上半月，從每日收入的角度來看，我們的成長速度與第二季的成長速度相似，大約在 6% 的範圍內。顯然，比賽已經發生了相當大的變化，尤其是從本週開始。

And so it's going to cause a little disruption to what the tonnage numbers look, what we're seeing today. We can extrapolate out and we do where we think we'll finish. But I think there's going to be a little flux with respect to what those final volume numbers and yield numbers might look like given the drastic change in business levels and mix that we saw in that last part of the month of July.

因此，這將對我們今天所看到的噸位數字造成一些幹擾。我們可以推斷並做我們認為會完成的事情。但我認為，鑑於我們在 7 月最後一段時間看到的業務水平和組合的巨大變化，最終的銷量數字和收益率數字可能會出現一些變化。

But at this point, I would say that, that 4% to 4.5%, I would say that the volumes are probably about flattish, and that could be plus or minus one way around that. And that flatness and then from a yield standpoint, again, pretty consistent with what we just saw in the second quarter. And right now, it's looking a little bit stronger, but we'll see where those final numbers land.

但在這一點上，我想說的是，4% 到 4.5%，我想說的是，成交量可能持平，而且可能會以某種方式增加或減少。這種平坦性，然後從收益率的角度來看，再次與我們剛剛在第二季度看到的情況非常一致。現在，它看起來有點更強，但我們將看看最終的數字會落在哪裡。

And of course, we'll put the final details out there. But just from a pure revenue standpoint, though, and just looking at revenue per day, July and October are the months that we see decreases and as we go month-to-month progress through the year. And what we're seeing from a pure revenue per day standpoint is pretty consistent with what normal seasonality would otherwise be, which is a drop off somewhere in kind of the 2.5% type of range.

當然，我們會公佈最終的細節。但僅從純粹收入的角度來看，僅從每天的收入來看，7 月和 10 月是我們看到下降的月份，而且隨著我們全年逐月進步。從每日純收入的角度來看，我們所看到的情況與正常季節性情況非常一致，即下降了 2.5% 的範圍。

And that's pretty consistent with what our five-year average has been there. So we'll look to see that we get some recovery back in August, which is normal. And then September, as you know, is pretty much our strongest month of the year. So can we see a stronger acceleration going into the end of the quarter? I would hope so. We saw strong performance in March, strong performance in June. And if that can repeat, we'll see where we land. But that's kind of the lay of the land and what things are looking like at the moment. And of course, we'll update, as I mentioned earlier, with the final July and then the mid-quarter update with our August trends.

這與我們五年的平均值非常一致。因此，我們將期待八月份有所恢復，這是正常的。如您所知，九月幾乎是我們一年中最強勁的月份。那麼我們能看到季度末出現更強勁的加速嗎？我希望如此。我們看到三月的強勁表現，六月的強勁表現。如果這種情況能夠重複，我們就會看到我們著陸的地方。但這就是實際情況和目前的情況。當然，正如我之前提到的，我們將更新最後的 7 月趨勢，然後更新季度中期的 8 月趨勢。

Okay. Yes, thank you for that. Just one other quick one. On headcount, how are you thinking about headcount sequentially? Are you in kind of a flattish volume environment? Are we modeling headcount down a little bit sequentially? Or are you kind of keeping it flat? And keeping some capacity for when the volume improves?

好的。是的，謝謝你。只是另一快。關於人員編制，您如何依序考慮人員編制？您是否處於一種平坦的音量環境？我們是否會依序稍微減少人數模型？還是你想保持平坦？並在音量提高時保留一些容量？

Well, I think we're in a good spot from an overall headcount standpoint. At the end of June, we're 150 to 200 people ahead of where we were in September of last year when we were handling 51,000 shipments per day. So we're in a good spot there. It drifted down, just normal attrition kind of taking place through the second quarter. And if that continues to occur as we go through the second half of the year, we're always balancing the changes and so forth, generally in alignment with what our shipment counts are and how they're changing. So that will be something that we continue to watch and deal with.

嗯，我認為從整體員工人數的角度來看，我們處於一個很好的位置。截至 6 月底，我們比去年 9 月每天處理 51,000 批貨物時多了 150 至 200 名員工。所以我們處於一個很好的位置。它逐漸下降，只是第二季發生的正常消耗。如果這種情況在下半年繼續發生，我們總是會平衡變化等等，通常與我們的發貨數量及其變化方式保持一致。因此，這將是我們繼續關注和處理的事情。

But at this point, we're getting closer to where you generally have the seasonally slower part of the year once we get into 4Q and 1Q, but we're keeping our eye out for what 2025 might look like, and you don't wait until it's coming at you, you got to get ahead of the curve, if you will. And that's why this year, we invested so much, and we always are investing in our people and restarted our truck driving schools and so forth and it continued to increase the number of employees with their CDLs to be ready for when our customers call on us and they need capacity, we want to be in a position to be able to respond with a, yes, we can help you versus trying to play catch-up and be reactive.

但目前，一旦進入第四季度和第一季度，我們就越來越接近一年中季節性放緩的時期，但我們正在密切關注 2025 年可能會是什麼樣子，而你不會等到它向你襲來時，如果你願意的話，你必須走在前面。這就是為什麼今年我們投入瞭如此多的資金，我們一直在對我們的員工進行投資，並重新啟動了我們的卡車駕駛學校等，並繼續增加了持有CDL 的員工數量，以便在客戶來訪時做好準備他們需要能力，我們希望能夠做出回應，是的，我們可以幫助您，而不是試圖追趕和做出反應。

Jon Chappell, Evercore ISI.

喬恩·查佩爾，Evercore ISI。

Adam, you know as well as anybody the bear thesis about capacity coming online, whether it's terminals that were auctioned or the organic growth by some of your peers and what that may do to pricing. It sounds like early stages of 3Q pricing has been relatively consistent. But as we think about the anniversarying of the Yellow bankruptcy starting in 4Q, most especially from a yield perspective, is there any reason why you wouldn't see typical seasonal trends in yield beyond this summer, whether that relates to capacity or any other factors in the market?

亞當，你和任何人一樣都知道關於線上容量的熊市論點，無論是拍賣的終端還是你的一些同行的有機增長以及這可能對定價產生的影響。聽起來第三季的早期定價相對一致。但是，當我們考慮從第四季度開始的黃色破產週年紀念日時，尤其是從收益率的角度來看，是否有任何理由讓您看不到今年夏季之後收益率的典型季節性趨勢，無論這與產能還是其他因素有關在市場上？

Like I've said earlier, and maybe to just elaborate on that, we're continuing to see good yield performance and that's what we expect. I mean, this is something that we work on day by day. Our sales team and our pricing and costing teams are all working together and working with our customers to ultimately provide value to their supply chains.

就像我之前所說的那樣，也許只是為了詳細說明這一點，我們繼續看到良好的收益率表現，這就是我們所期望的。我的意思是，這是我們每天都在努力的事情。我們的銷售團隊以及定價和成本會計團隊都在與客戶共同努力，最終為其供應鏈提供價值。

But our yield management philosophy is to obtain increases that not necessarily are market-driven in a sense of the markets in our favor or not. What's our cost inflation looking like, and then what are the continuing needs of our business. And that's been a long-term philosophy that is consistent and has worked for us. And so that's what we would continue to expect as we move forward as well.

但我們的收益管理理念是獲得成長，但不一定是市場驅動的，無論市場對我們有利或不利。我們的成本通膨情況如何，以及我們業務的持續需求是什麼。這是一個長期的理念，始終如一且對我們有效。因此，這也是我們在前進過程中繼續期望的。

We're negotiating and working every day, and I would expect that any contracts are coming due that we will work through and need to obtain increases on those. So regardless of what other carriers and specific issues or areas or whatnot, may be going on, we expect that we'll continue to see a disciplined environment in the industry and that's what we've seen thus far. So we'll just continue to manage through that and keep sort of focusing on what we do and what we can deliver and continue to add value to our customer supply chains.

我們每天都在談判和工作，我預計任何合約到期後我們都會完成並需要增加。因此，無論其他運營商以及具體問題或領域或其他情況可能發生什麼，我們預計該行業將繼續看到一個紀律嚴明的環境，這就是我們迄今為止所看到的。因此，我們將繼續管理這個問題，並繼續專注於我們所做的事情和我們可以提供的服務，並繼續為我們的客戶供應鏈增加價值。

Eric Morgan, Barclays.

艾瑞克摩根，巴克萊銀行。

Hey, guys, thanks for answering my question. I wanted to ask one on cost inflation. Your comp per employee has been up maybe mid-single digits or so for about a year now. Just wondering, as you think about another wage increase later this quarter and as broader inflation measures are trending down a little bit, should we start to see that moderate? And maybe how does that factor into the sequential OR outlook for 3Q? Thanks.

嘿，夥計們，謝謝你回答我的問題。我想問一個關於成本通膨的問題。大約一年來，您的員工人均薪資可能已經上漲了中個位數左右。只是想知道，當您考慮本季稍後再次加薪以及更廣泛的通膨指標略有下降時，我們是否應該開始看到這種溫和的成長？也許這對第三季的連續或展望有何影響？謝謝。

Well, generally speaking, when you look over the longer term, when you look at our cost per shipment, if you will, wage cost per shipment, it's generally going up about 3% to 3.5%, and more in line with what the wage increase that we give every year has been. There's been inflation that we've seen in our benefit cost though, and we experienced some of that as well in the second quarter. And those fringe benefit costs include multiple factors, some of which are improvements to the overall comp program that we offer to employees and things like paid time-off benefits that we've improved over the years and the quality of our group health and dental programs as well.

嗯，一般來說，當你從長遠來看，當你看看我們每批貨物的成本時，如果你願意的話，每批貨物的工資成本，通常會上漲約3% 到3.5%，而且更符合薪資水準。不過，我們的福利成本出現了通貨膨脹，我們在第二季也經歷了其中的一些情況。這些額外福利成本包括多種因素，其中一些是我們向員工提供的整體薪酬計劃的改進，以及我們多年來改進的帶薪休假福利以及我們的團體健康和牙科計劃的質量以及。

I mean, those are incremental changes that we're always having to manage. And maybe there's a little bit more variability in terms of when you're self-insured on the health program, you can have changes in one quarter versus the next that aren't necessarily going in alignment with what shipment volumes may be changing. But looking over time, that's just something that we would expect. We'll continue to change and reflect the improvements in terms of the benefit program and comp program that we offer our employees.

我的意思是，這些是我們始終必須管理的增量變更。也許當您對健康計劃進行自我保險時，會有更多的變化，您可能會在一個季度與下一個季度發生變化，而這些變化不一定與發貨量的變化一致。但隨著時間的推移，這正是我們所期望的。我們將繼續改變並反映我們為員工提供的福利計劃和薪酬計劃方面的改進。

But 65% of our costs are salaries, wages, and benefits. So that's generally been the biggest driver of our total cost per shipment inflation. It's averaged 3.5% to 4% over the long term as well. So that all goes into it. We've had a lot of other incremental inflationary items, things like the cost of our equipment, maintenance costs that have been up double digits on a per mile basis the last few years, insurance cost that is a problem for the industry that have been up double digits for multiple years in a row. All of those things we continue with, and that's why there's got to be an ongoing focus on operating efficiency and discretionary spending.

但我們 65% 的成本是薪資、薪資和福利。因此，這通常是我們每次出貨總成本通膨的最大驅動因素。長期來看，平均成長率也為 3.5% 至 4%。這樣一切就都進去了。我們還有很多其他增量通貨膨脹項目，例如我們的設備成本、過去幾年每英里增長兩位數的維護成本、保險成本（這對行業來說是一個問題）連續多年增長兩位數。所有這些事情我們都會繼續進行，這就是為什麼必須持續關注營運效率和可自由支配支出。

And we're managing our costs day by day in good times and bad. If you wait until -- it's too late if you wait until they're bad times. You've got to have that focus going every day or you may not even know where to start. So that's something that we're always looking at, how can we offset all those other costs to basically keep our cost inflation in check. And then as you know, the yield management philosophy is we try to achieve 100 to 150 basis points of positive spread over top of that cost inflation metric. So that keeps our pricing levels in check with the rest of the industry as well. So it all kind of goes into it, but it's a day-by-day fight to try to keep our cost inflation minimize as best as we can.

無論順境或逆境，我們都在日復一日地管理成本。如果你等到——如果你等到情況不好的時候就太晚了。你必須每天都集中精力，否則你可能不知道從哪裡開始。因此，這是我們一直在關注的問題，我們如何抵消所有其他成本，以基本上控製成本通膨。如您所知，收益管理理念是我們嘗試在成本通膨指標之上實現 100 到 150 個基點的正利差。因此，這也使我們的定價水準與行業其他公司保持一致。所以這一切都在其中，但這是一場日復一日的鬥爭，試圖盡可能地降低我們的成本通膨。

Bascome Majors, Susquehanna.

巴斯科姆專業，薩斯奎哈納。

Adam, it's encouraging to hear some signs of seasonality have stuck with you through July so far, and appreciate the framing of typical 3Q seasonality with top line and the margin side. Can we look ahead to 4Q, without necessarily (inaudible) whether the market suggests will be above or below. But how do you frame seasonality for your business into 4Q, both on top line and a margin basis, looking back historically as we try to level set our views?

Adam，很高興聽到一些季節性跡像在 7 月一直困擾著您，並欣賞典型的第三季季節性的框架（包括頂線和利潤率）。我們能否展望第四季度，而不必（聽不清楚）市場暗示會高於或低於。但是，當我們試圖平衡我們的觀點時，回顧歷史，您如何將業務的季節性納入第四季度，包括營收和利潤率？

Yes. So said a couple of times, the fourth quarter and the first quarter are seasonally slower periods, if you will. The fourth quarter, from just a pure revenue per day standpoint, it's just a slight drop off. And then you go into the first quarter and revenue is down, maybe down in the fourth quarter, 0.5% sequentially versus the third quarter, and then you drop on average about 1.5% going into the first quarter.

是的。如上所述，如果您願意的話，第四季度和第一季是季節性淡季。第四季度，僅從每日純收入的角度來看，只是略有下降。然後進入第一季度，收入下降，第四季度可能會下降，比第三季度連續下降 0.5%，然後進入第一季平均下降約 1.5%。

From an operating ratio standpoint, the fourth quarter is typically about 200 to 250 basis points higher than the third and a lot of that is the revenue level softening a little bit. We've got three months of that wage increase. And that normal change, if you remember from last year, we always have actuarial assessment of our insurance reserves in the fourth quarter and those adjustments can go one way or the other. I generally view those as a reconciling item to whatever that normal change is. And last year was an unfavorable adjustment to that insurance and claims line. A few years prior, they had been favorable adjustments. So kind of throw that out of the window when just looking at what is that normal cost progression change.

從營運比率的角度來看，第四季通常比第三季高出約 200 至 250 個基點，其中很大一部分是收入水平略有疲軟。我們還有三個月的加薪時間。如果你還記得去年的情況，這種正常的變化，我們總是在第四季度對我們的保險準備金進行精算評估，這些調整可能會以一種方式或另一種方式進行。我通常將這些視為與任何正常變化相協調的項目。去年對保險和索賠額度進行了不利的調整。幾年前，它們是有利的調整。因此，當只查看正常的成本進展變化時，就可以將其扔到窗外。

Ken Hoexter, Bank of America.

肯‧霍克斯特，美國銀行。

Great. I guess maybe I need to check numbers a little bit. I think we've got a 10-year average in second quarter or the third quarter of a 10 basis point improvement, not a 50 basis point decrease. So I just wanted to double check that. And then as you start to lap the Yellow freight data, last year, you went from down upper teens on revenue per day and mid-teens tons per day to kind of much smaller losses.

偉大的。我想也許我需要檢查一下數字。我認為第二季或第三季的 10 年平均值提高了 10 個基點，而不是下降了 50 個基點。所以我只是想仔細檢查一下。然後，當您開始記錄去年的黃色貨運數據時，您的每日收入和每天的噸位都從上十幾噸下降到了小得多的損失。

I guess given that backdrop, how should we think about the market kind of tonnage per day growth? I know you've talked a lot about revenue per day, but how do we think about the tonnes per day shift as we move into the back half of the third quarter and into the fourth quarter?

我想在這種背景下，我們該如何看待市場每天的噸位成長？我知道您已經談論了很多關於每日收入的問題，但是當我們進入第三季後半段和第四季度時，我們如何看待每天的噸數變化？

Yes. And I'll come back to that. Let me just address that. The second quarter to third quarter change. You're right, the pure math is more about a 10 basis point change, but there are a couple of years in there that skew that in '23 last year, obviously, we had a major acceleration in revenue that allowed us to improve the operating ratio of 170 basis points from the 2Q to 3Q and then 2020 it was similar where you had the COVID cliff that happened and then the re-acceleration of business levels. So when I just look at more of a normalized progression, that's typically what we'd expect unless you've got something unusual going on that would drive some change there.

是的。我會回到這一點。讓我來解決這個問題。第二季到第三季的變化。你是對的，純粹的數學更多的是關於 10 個基點的變化，但有幾年的情況發生了偏差，在去年的 23 年，顯然，我們的收入大幅加速，這使我們能夠改善從第第二季到第三季度，營運比率為170 個基點，然後到2020 年，這與發生了新冠疫情懸崖，然後業務水準重新加速的情況類似。因此，當我只關注更多的標準化進展時，這通常是我們所期望的，除非發生了一些不尋常的事情，會推動那裡發生一些變化。

With respect to the tonnage question and shipments, I mean, obviously, as you said, we had the acceleration that was meaningfully happening last year. If you recall, we were at 47,000 shipments per day really from December of '22 through July of '23 and immediately stepped up to about 50,000 in August and then accelerated further to 51,000 in September. So step function change that would be well above anything that was really happening with the underlying economy, if you will.

關於噸位問題和發貨量，我的意思是，顯然，正如您所說，我們去年發生了有意義的加速。如果你還記得的話，從 22 年 12 月到 23 年 7 月，我們每天的發貨量實際上是 47,000 件，並在 8 月份立即增加到約 50,000 件，然後在 9 月份進一步加速到 51,000 件。因此，如果你願意的話，階躍函數的變化將遠高於基礎經濟實際發生的任何變化。

So if we can see some type of normal acceleration, if you will, just like from a tonnage standpoint, our 10-year average from July to August is 0.6% increase there and then about a 3.5% increase in September. So we'll see how that goes. But right now, even if you hit those, it would look like you would have negative change in those volumes. But overall, I think it's just as we look at things sequentially, maybe more so than just the year-over-year given that challenge is what can we achieve relative to what normal seasonality would be and what we've seen at least so far through July.

因此，如果我們可以看到某種類型的正常加速，如果你願意的話，就像從噸位的角度來看，我們從7 月到8 月的10 年平均值是0.6% 的增長，然後是9 月約3.5% 的成長。所以我們會看看情況如何。但現在，即使你達到了這些目標，這些數量看起來也會出現負面變化。但總的來說，我認為這就像我們按順序看待事物一樣，考慮到挑戰是相對於正常季節性以及我們至少到目前為止所看到的情況，我們可以實現什麼目標，也許不僅僅是逐年比較到七月。

From a tons per day standpoint, just from a pure quarter, we're typically up about 1%. We gave the numbers earlier, but in the second quarter that average is just, call it, 6%, and we were up 3%, just sort of rounding numbers. So we were up kind of half of what normal seasonality would suggest. So we've got to make up some ground. Like I said earlier, we always lose a little bit of business in July and that's normal. And so if we can have kind of a little bit of acceleration through August and then see some acceleration into September, we were almost at normal seasonality in the June period.

從每天噸數的角度來看，僅從一個季度來看，我們通常會上漲約 1%。我們之前給出了這些數字，但在第二季度，平均成長率僅為 6%，而我們成長了 3%，只是四捨五入的數字。因此，我們的漲幅大約是正常季節性建議值的一半。所以我們必須彌補一些基礎。正如我之前所說，我們在 7 月總是會損失一些業務，這很正常。因此，如果我們能夠在 8 月有一點加速，然後在 9 月看到一些加速，那麼我們在 6 月期間幾乎處於正常的季節性。

And the same thing with March, you got to adjust for the Good Friday, but we're about at seasonality in those stronger growth months of the quarter. So if we can make some progress in August and then see some sense of that strong acceleration through the month of September, I think we'll be okay, and we've positioned ourselves well. Whenever we come out of this true economic downturn, we're operating at 72% essentially and 71.9%, I guess, I should take credit for every basis point we have in terms of where we've operated.

與三月一樣，你必須針對耶穌受難日進行調整，但我們在本季那些成長強勁的月份中處於季節性。因此，如果我們能夠在 8 月取得一些進展，然後在 9 月看到強勁的加速，我想我們會沒事的，而且我們已經做好了自己的定位。每當我們走出真正的經濟衰退時，我們的營運率基本上是 72%，我想，我認為我們在營運方面所擁有的每一個基點都應該歸功於我們。

And when I look at the breakdown of our operating ratio in the quarter and where we are from an overhead standpoint relative to our direct variable costs, I'm really pleased with the improvement that we've made with our direct cost performance and then that just gets into the day-to-day management within our operations in the field primarily. But everyone is contributing to that overall operating ratio. But our overhead costs have increased, 20% to 21% of revenue in the most recent quarter. Those costs have been down to around 17% in the past.

當我查看本季度營運比率的細目以及我們相對於直接可變成本的管理費用的情況時，我對我們在直接成本績效方面所取得的改進感到非常滿意主要涉及我們在該領域運營的日常管理。但每個人都在為整體營運率做出貢獻。但我們的管理費用增加，最近一個季度佔收入的 20% 至 21%。過去這些成本已降至 17% 左右。

So once we get some true density coming back into the network, we've built our network and our system to accommodate more than 50,000 shipments a day. So once we get back into 50,000, 55,000, 60,000, whatever that number is, that's where you'll really see the power of operating density in the model. And you move that scale from 20% to 21% back towards 17%, that puts us back in -- with an OR with the (inaudible) on it back where we were in 2022. I think we're in a great spot and have managed through this downturn very well and has certainly put ourselves in a great position to capitalize on the market when we actually start seeing some economic wins that are back.

因此，一旦我們的網路恢復到一定的真實密度，我們就建立了能夠容納每天超過 50,000 件貨物的網路和系統。因此，一旦我們回到 50,000、55,000、60,000，無論這個數字是多少，您都會真正看到模型中操作密度的力量。如果將這一比例從 20% 提高到 21%，再回到 17%，這會讓我們回到 2022 年的水平。當勝利回來時，我們無疑處於充分利用市場的有利地位。

Brian Ossenbeck, JPMorgan.

布萊恩‧奧森貝克，摩根大通。

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. So Adam, maybe you can elaborate a little bit more on what end markets or maybe customers you're seeing some of that strength at the end of the last two quarters in March and June. Is there anything to read into that? Does it give you any sort of forward looking to the back half of the year or next year?

嗨，早安。感謝您提出問題。 Adam，也許您可以詳細說明您在 3 月和 6 月的最後兩個季度末看到了哪些終端市場或客戶的實力。有什麼值得解讀的嗎？它是否讓您對下半年或明年有任何展望？

And then just kind of another follow-up on competition and extra capacity coming online. Are you seeing anything as these new facilities come back online? Anything that you would call out from either service being disrupted by some of your competitors? Or are they being a little bit more aggressive to maybe fill some of those doors and pricing more to capacity and not necessarily cost?

然後是競爭和額外容量上線的另一個後續行動。當這些新設施重新上線時，您看到了什麼嗎？您對這兩種服務被某些競爭對手乾擾有什麼看法嗎？或者他們會更積極地填補其中一些機會，並根據容量定價而不一定是成本？

This is Marty. I'm going to answer your customer question. I'm still heavily involved with a lot of our top customers and the feeling out there is not all doom and gloom. In fact, our top 50 customers are up mid-single digits year to date so we're getting a lot of positive remarks, especially from our larger customers.And they as well see some positive things for the rest of the year. So we're very positive those things will continue.

這是馬蒂。我將回答您的客戶問題。我仍然與我們的許多頂級客戶密切合作，而且感覺並不全是厄運和沮喪。事實上，今年迄今為止，我們的前50 名客戶的業績增長了中個位數，因此我們收到了很多積極的評價，尤其是來自我們的大客戶。 他們也看到了今年剩餘時間的一些積極的事情。所以我們非常肯定這些事情將會繼續下去。

And as Adam said earlier, they feel and I feel if we can see some interest rate drops towards the end of the year, I think we'll really accelerate. So we're looking forward to that and prepared to handle it. So it's not all doom and gloom out there, trust me.

正如亞當早些時候所說，他們和我都認為，如果我們能在年底看到利率下降，我認為我們會真正加速。因此，我們對此充滿期待並準備好應對。所以，相信我，事情並非全是厄運和陰鬱。

And on the competitive side, we've not seen, I don't think, any material change in the sense of if someone has opened one service center in whatever market, any type of real impact and as you can see in our yield trends, things continue to be consistent with our performance. That's just something we'll continue to manage through and monitor.

在競爭方面，我認為我們還沒有看到任何實質變化，無論某人在任何市場開設了一個服務中心，也沒有任何類型的實際影響，正如您在我們的收益率趨勢中看到的那樣，事情繼續與我們的表現保持一致。這只是我們將繼續管理和監控的事情。

But given the cost that went into purchasing many of these facilities, we'd be a little surprised to see someone going out and having to be aggressive to try to fill it up. And at the end of the day, those service centers serve the market for a reason. They were in existence and those particular markets had a customer base that their sales reps called on, and there's LTL shipments that are out there. And as I referenced earlier, I mean, the market is down overall, and we estimate that it's down about 15% back from -- in 2021. But that's something that will recover.

但考慮到購買許多此類設施的成本，我們會有點驚訝地看到有人出去並必須積極嘗試填補這些設施。歸根結底，這些服務中心為市場服務是有原因的。它們已經存在，並且這些特定市場擁有銷售代表所拜訪的客戶群，並且存在零擔運輸。正如我之前提到的，我的意思是，市場整體下跌，我們估計 2021 年將下跌約 15%。

Those LTL shipments, those customers will continue to have freight that needs to be moved through an LTL network. And I think that, that will end up creating opportunity for us, for the industry in general, to refill those facilities, if you will, once they come online. But to me, it creates maybe even more of an opportunity for Old Dominion specifically.

對於這些零擔貨運，這些客戶將繼續擁有需要透過零擔網路運輸的貨物。我認為，這最終將為我們、整個產業創造機會，一旦這些設施上線，就可以重新填充這些設施。但對我來說，它可能為舊自治領創造了更多的機會。

I agree with that. There's still over 130 facilities that have been sold. So that actually last capacity when things pick up, then we had when YRC the steel and business.

我同意這一點。目前仍有 130 多個設施已售出。因此，當情況好轉時，實際上最後的產能是 YRC 的鋼鐵和業務。

Stephanie Moore, Jefferies.

史蒂芬妮·摩爾，杰弗里斯。

Hi, good morning. Thank you. I wanted to touch a bit on some of your network investments and maybe some of the terminals that have been opened so far this year. So maybe if you could give us an update on sort of new terminal openings or door additions year-to-date thus far. And then an update in terms of your plans for maybe the back half of this year, if there's been any kind of maybe postponement or pause just given the state of the underlying macro. Any color there would be helpful. Thanks.

早安.謝謝。我想談談你們的一些網路投資，也許還有今年迄今已開放的一些航站樓。那麼，也許您可以向我們提供今年迄今為止新航站樓開放或增設門的最新情況。然後是今年下半年的計劃的更新，如果考慮到基本宏觀的狀況，可能會出現任何形式的推遲或暫停。任何顏色都會有幫助。謝謝。

Yes. We've opened three service centers this year, and we're continuing to execute on our CapEx plan. The current estimate is to spend about $350 million this year, at least on the real estate component of that program. So our plan is we look at the network, we look at the service centers that we feel like need some measure of capacity. And when we look kind of over the next five years and what the anticipated growth curve may be, the efficiency of the network comes into play as well, the location of where these facilities are.

是的。我們今年開設了三個服務中心，並將繼續執行我們的資本支出計劃。目前估計今年將花費約 3.5 億美元，至少用於該計劃的房地產部分。因此，我們的計劃是研究網絡，研究我們認為需要某種容量衡量標準的服務中心。當我們展望未來五年以及預期的成長曲線時，網路的效率以及這些設施的位置也會發揮作用。

And so that kind of goes into the overall plan. And we're a little bit heavy right now, frankly. It's not unusual when we go through a slower economic environment to get a little ahead of the curve. Our long-term strategy is we like having 20% to 25% excess capacity in the system. We're at about 30% today, and that's okay, we're comfortable with that. Now what that may mean is exactly what you said: there may be facilities that are in process today; we will finish those facilities.

因此，這屬於總體計劃。坦白說，我們現在有點沉重。當我們在經濟放緩的環境下取得領先一點時，這種情況並不罕見。我們的長期策略是我們希望系統中有 20% 到 25% 的過剩產能。今天我們的進度約為 30%，沒關係，我們對此感到滿意。現在這可能意味著正如你所說：今天可能有一些設施正在建設中；我們將完成這些設施。

And if the demand environment doesn't dictate that we go ahead and open them immediately, we'll finish the construction. We'll start the depreciation and so forth of those facilities, but we'll wait until there's stronger demand to really justify the opening and all the incremental overhead cost that goes along with those facilities once they're operational. Not just the overhead, but there's configurations to the line haul network that has to happen. And generally, that negatively impacts load factor.

如果需求環境不要求我們立即開放，我們就會完成建造。我們將開始對這些設施進行折舊等，但我們將等到有更強勁的需求來真正證明開放以及這些設施一旦投入運營後所產生的所有增量間接費用的合理性。不只是開銷，還需要對線路網路進行配置。一般來說，這會對負載係數產生負面影響。

So that's something that these other carriers that are opening multiple facilities will be facing the incremental cost there, which is another reason why we don't anticipate seeing reductions in pricing or any pressures there. So that's something that just goes into it, and we'll continue to look and evaluate. But overall, continuing to plan and we'll continue to -- the investments that we make are really just based on what we think the market share opportunities are in each of the respective areas. And so we feel like we've got tremendous opportunity ahead. And thus, we intend to continue to spend 10% to 15% of our revenues every year on total capital expenditures, the real estate, and then obviously on the fleet and the technology side as well to keep pace with our anticipated growth.

因此，這些開設多個設施的其他業者將面臨增量成本，這也是我們預計不會看到價格下降或任何壓力的另一個原因。這就是我們要討論的內容，我們將繼續研究和評估。但總的來說，繼續計劃，我們將繼續進行——我們所做的投資實際上只是基於我們認為每個領域的市場份額機會。所以我們覺得我們前面有巨大的機會。因此，我們打算繼續每年將收入的 10% 到 15% 用於總資本支出、房地產，顯然也用於機隊和技術方面，以跟上我們預期的成長步伐。

Bruce Chan, Stifel.

布魯斯·陳，斯蒂菲爾。

Adam, I wanted to follow up on the seasonality and the macro comments, certainly, Marty, given your discussion with customers. But obviously, there's a lot of moving parts this year with the geopolitical situation and with the election. There's been some talk on the 3PL side about volume pull forward. So maybe just wondering, if you've gotten any indication from customers to that effect or if you think the demand in seasonality conversations seem to be pretty clear right now.

亞當，鑑於您與客戶的討論，我想跟進季節性和宏觀評論，當然，馬蒂。但顯然，今年地緣政治局勢和選舉有很多變化。 3PL 方面有一些關於銷售提前的討論。因此，也許只是想知道，您是否從客戶那裡得到了任何關於這一效果的指示，或者您是否認為季節性對話中的需求現在似乎非常明確。

I think as I've said before, about one-third of our business is 3PL related and those are basically the top customers that I was referring to. And most of those that come in here are giving us new opportunities to go in with them and handle their business. And for the most part, they're super positive. We have a set of 3PLs in here this morning that I've already talked to, and they're super positive and they've got growth opportunities. So I'm positive as well that we'll see some positive results from these customers. And hopefully, next year, in the geopolitical environment if we see some change there, I think it will be even more positive.

我認為正如我之前所說，我們大約三分之一的業務與 3PL 相關，這些基本上是我所指的頂級客戶。大多數來到這裡的人都給了我們新的機會與他們一起工作並處理他們的業務。大多數情況下，他們都非常積極。今天早上我們這裡有一組 3PL，我已經和他們談過了，他們非常積極並且有發展機會。因此，我也確信我們會從這些客戶身上看到一些正面的成果。希望明年，在地緣政治環境中，如果我們看到一些變化，我認為這將更加積極。

Adam?

亞當？

No, I don't really have anything to add. I think that, obviously, any time there's an election year that creates uncertainty and usually puts pressure on the overall shipping environment and we've seen that this year on top of a slower, industrial economy in general.

不，我真的沒有什麼要補充的。我認為，顯然，任何時候選舉年都會產生不確定性，通常會對整體航運環境造成壓力，今年我們已經看到，工業經濟總體放緩。

So I think that's something that will just be one more measure of uncertainty that will soon be put to bed, whatever direction it goes. But I think just broadly speaking, if we start having clarity on some of the macro factors that are impacting business owners and the decisions that they make about expanding their businesses and so forth, we can make changes from an interest rate environment that helps and helps people and the consumer. We're still a consumer-driven economy.

因此，我認為這將是衡量不確定性的另一個指標，無論它朝哪個方向發展，它都會很快被消除。但我認為，從廣義上講，如果我們開始清楚影響企業主的一些宏觀因素以及他們在擴展業務等方面做出的決策，我們就可以從有幫助的利率環境中做出改變人和消費者。我們仍然是一個消費驅動型經濟。

And so that's something that if we can keep a healthy consumer out there, they're buying things that creates inventory that's got to be replenished and that's the customer call that comes into OD for a shipment to be picked up. So that will be the opportunity created. So it's something that we'll continue to measure and monitor and so forth. As Marty mentioned, we're seeing improved performance with our 3PL customers right now. We had a little bit stronger, retail-related performance in the second quarter.

因此，如果我們能夠留住健康的消費者，他們購買的東西會產生必須補充的庫存，這就是為什麼客戶致電 OD 要求提貨的原因。這就是創造的機會。所以我們將繼續衡量和監控等等。正如 Marty 所提到的，我們現在看到 3PL 客戶的績效有所改善。第二季我們的零售相關業績稍強。

Industrial was okay but kind of reflects the industrial environment like the ISM metrics that we talked about earlier. But all of that, it's called a cycle for a reason. And it's easy to get caught up when you're in the down part of the cycle. We've managed through that. We've been in the down part of the cycle for a lot longer than I had originally anticipated. But it will turn back to the positive at some point, and we're in a great position to capitalize when it does.

工業還不錯，但有點反映了工業環境，就像我們之前討論的 ISM 指標一樣。但所有這些，被稱為循環是有原因的。當你處於週期的低谷時，很容易陷入困境。我們已經解決了這個問題。我們處於週期下行階段的時間比我最初預期的要長得多。但它會在某個時候恢復到積極的狀態，而當它發生時，我們就處於有利的位置。

Jason Seidel, TD. Cowen.

賈森·賽德爾，TD。考恩.

Adam, thanks for squeezing me in here. Just wanted to follow up, Marty, to some of your comments. You mentioned that you've been talking to a lot of your big customers, and it's not all doom and gloom. I was wondering sort of what areas those customers doing? Is this spread across the board?

亞當，謝謝你把我擠在這裡。馬蒂，我只是想跟進您的一些評論。您提到您一直在與許多大客戶進行交談，情況並不全是厄運和悲觀。我想知道這些客戶在做什麼領域？這種情況是否普遍存在？

Is this more consumer versus industrial? And the other one would be, we've heard a lot about some business being pulled forward from peak season into the 2Q and I guess, the start of 3Q here. I'm wondering if you guys have seen any impacts from that? And how should we look at that going forward?

這是消費級還是工業級？另一個是，我們聽到很多關於一些業務從旺季推遲到第二季的消息，我想，第三季的開始。我想知道你們是否看到了任何影響？我們該如何看待未來？

Well, it's all over the board from a product or a commodity standpoint. As you see on the news daily, your hospitality and your travel markets are the ones that's really up over the industrial sector, but the commodities and opportunities that we have from these 3PLs and other customers. It's just all over the board. The inventories are all over the board. You hear from some that say we still have a little inventory from last year, and others say our inventory is getting low, so we're going to start ordering product, whether that be domestically or overseas. So it's just all over the board. But like I said earlier, I'm very positive that things have basically bottomed out, and I'm looking forward to better times.

嗯，從產品或商品的角度來看，這都是全面的。正如您每天在新聞中看到的那樣，您的酒店業和旅遊市場確實比工業領域有所增長，但我們從這些 3PL 和其他客戶那裡獲得了商品和機會。一切都是如此。庫存全面。你聽到一些人說我們去年的庫存還有一點，還有一些人說我們的庫存越來越低，所以我們要開始訂購產品，無論是國內還是海外。所以這只是全面的。但正如我之前所說，我非常肯定事情已經基本觸底，我期待著更好的時光。

Okay. In terms of the pull forward, have you seen any impact?

好的。在推動方面，您看到任何影響嗎？

We've not really heard any material discussion of any pull forward or whatnot at this point, or at least I've not heard anyone from our sales team or any customer that we've had here in the office that's really spoken to that.

目前，我們還沒有真正聽到任何關於任何提前或諸如此類的實質性討論，或者至少我沒有聽到我們銷售團隊的任何人或我們辦公室裡的任何客戶真正談到過這一點。

Jeff Kauffman, Vertical Research Partners.

傑夫考夫曼，垂直研究夥伴。

Thanks for squeezing me last here. Marty, bigger picture thought question. I'm just curious your view. If I look at the ATA LTL tonnage index, it's down about 8%. And a year ago before Yellow, the volumes of the publicly traded LTL carriers were tracking more closely to that. Since Yellow happened, the publicly traded group is showing kind of flat to up 2% tonnage.

謝謝你最後把我擠到這裡。馬蒂，大局思考問題。我只是好奇你的看法。如果我看看 ATA LTL 噸位指數，它下降了約 8%。一年前，在 Yellow 之前，公開交易的零擔運輸公司的交易量更接近這個數字。自黃色事件發生以來，該上市集團的噸位表現出持平至上漲 2%。

But the ATA tonnage index is still showing down about 8%. Is there something going on? Like why would it diverge so much? And is there something going on maybe where the smaller LTL carriers might be struggling a little bit more than you and some of your larger peers. Can you help me kind of bridge this gap?

但ATA噸位指數仍顯示下跌約8%。有什麼事嗎？例如為什麼會出現這麼大的差異？是否有什麼事情可能會導緻小型零擔承運商比您和一些較大的同行陷入更多的困境。你能幫我彌補這個差距嗎？

Well, I think probably what you saw when YRC went out of business is that customers were struggling to find ways to move that freight and some of it went in not a large portion of it, but some of it went to your smaller freight forwarders, air freight forwarders, smaller logistic companies. And I think that's where some of that has gone. And those guys basically don't have any assets, so they're handled at a lower rate. And I think some of that business moved to full truckload carriers as the economy started to slow.

嗯，我想，當 YRC 倒閉時，您可能會看到客戶正在努力尋找運輸貨物的方法，其中一些貨物進入的不是很大一部分，但其中一些則流向了較小的貨運代理，航空貨運代理、小型物流公司。我認為這就是其中一些已經消失的地方。而那些人基本上沒有任何資產，所以處理速度比較低。我認為隨著經濟開始放緩，其中一些業務轉移到整車運輸公司。

And as I've said before, when your economy starts to pick back up, the LTL industry will benefit from that even from the full truckload industry because we saw some of that freight move to those full truckload carriers as it relates to (inaudible). And once those full truckload carriers begin to get busier and their capacity gets tighter, that freight will move back towards the LTL industry. So I think the business moved a little bit everywhere based on price. And so that's how I see it. That's the only way I can explain it.

正如我之前所說，當經濟開始復甦時，零擔行業甚至會從整車行業中受益，因為我們看到一些貨運轉移到了整車承運商，因為它涉及（聽不清） 。一旦這些整車承運人開始變得更加繁忙並且運力變得更加緊張，貨運將重新轉向零擔行業。所以我認為，基於價格，業務在各地都有變化。我就是這麼看的。這是我能解釋的唯一方法。

So the bigger point I'm going for here is, as you mentioned earlier, you got the PMI down in negative territory right now, industrial production is kind of flattish 50%, 60% industrial. When we look at your tonnage growth of 2%, and you're not chasing any Yellow business, the industry is probably a lot weaker in aggregate than what the five or six publicly traded truckload companies are reporting that, that 2% tonnage growth actually is stronger than the industry appears to be if we look at it through a broader lens and not just the lens of the publicly traded guys.

因此，我在這裡想說的更重要的一點是，正如您之前提到的，目前 PMI 已降至負值，工業生產 50%、60% 持平。當我們看到你們 2% 的噸位增長，並且你們沒有追逐任何黃色業務時，該行業總體上可能比五六家上市卡車裝載公司所報告的要弱得多，實際上 2% 的噸位增長如果我們從更廣泛的角度而不只是從上市公司的角度來看待這個行業，那麼它比這個行業看起來更強大。

Yes. Like you said, I mean, it's hard to know as we don't have access to all the private carriers, if you will. But we think some of that business may have gone there. But I think everyone has just been facing the challenge of the slower economy. And so that business, it's hard to trace through when Yellow did 50,000 shipments per day and you just look at -- I did the comparison and looking at second-quarter '23 numbers and most recently compare them to the first-quarter '24 for at least the publicly traded carriers, which are 65% to 70% of the industry's revenue.

是的。就像你說的，我的意思是，這很難知道，因為我們無法訪問所有私人運營商（如果你願意的話）。但我們認為其中一些業務可能已經轉移到那裡了。但我認為每個人都剛面臨經濟放緩的挑戰。因此，很難追蹤 Yellow 每天發貨 50,000 件的時間，你只需看看 - 我進行了比較並查看了 23 年第二季度的數字，最近將它們與 24 年第一季度的數據進行了比較至少是上市營運商，它們佔該行業收入的65% 至70%。

But trying to trace through and figure out where all the shipments went and how they're being handled in what mode are they being handled by is a tough task. But the thing that we take away and what I mentioned earlier is, if economically it made sense for those shippers to move their freight within the LTL environment, sharing the cost -- leveraging an LTL carriers network, sharing the cost on smaller shipment sizes with other shippers within the environment, all the benefits of moving freight by LTL that exist which creates, we think, long-term opportunity for our industry.

但試圖追蹤並弄清楚所有貨物的去向以及它們是如何以何種方式處理的卻是一項艱鉅的任務。但我們得出的結論以及我之前提到的是，如果從經濟角度來看，這些托運人在零擔環境中運輸貨物並分擔成本是有意義的——利用零擔承運商網絡，與其他公司分擔較小貨運量的成本。

Those shipments are going to return, and they will be there and available again. And so that's why we continue to believe that our industry one will be increasing. We'll get back to the levels where we were in '21, and I believe we'll grow further beyond there. And we're in an environment that I think we'll end up with. Who knows what the final capacity number will be, but at this point, it looks like total industry capacity could be down 10% or maybe even more from where we were at that '21 period. So you've got more volumes and less capacity overall that exists. And there may still be a little bit of shuffling around with those shipments and ultimately finding a home once the market tightens up and everyone gets really busy again.

這些貨物將會返回，並且它們將再次到達並可用。這就是為什麼我們仍然相信我們的行業將會不斷成長。我們將回到 21 年的水平，我相信我們將進一步發展。我認為我們最終會處於這樣的環境。誰知道最終的產能數字會是多少，但目前看來，產業總產能可能會比 21 世紀期間下降 10% 甚至更多。因此，現有的容量更大，容量更少。一旦市場收緊，每個人都再次變得非常忙碌，這些出貨量可能仍然會出現一些調整，並最終找到一個下家。

I think that's when you'll see who's really got the best long-term strategy, who has got the best service, the best value network capacity, people, capacity, equipment capacity. I think when you look at all those factors and who delivers the best value, I think the answer is just clearly Old Dominion. And so that's why we're excited about what our long-term opportunities are. And I think that we will continue to win market share and ultimately create incremental shareholder value.

我認為那時你會看到誰真正擁有最好的長期策略，誰擁有最好的服務，最有價值的網路容量、人員、容量、設備容量。我認為，當你考慮所有這些因素以及誰能提供最佳價值時，我認為答案顯然是舊自治領。這就是為什麼我們對我們的長期機會感到興奮。我認為我們將繼續贏得市場份額並最終創造增量股東價值。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Marty Freeman for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給馬蒂·弗里曼發表閉幕詞。

Thank you all for your participation today. We appreciate your questions, and please feel free to give us a call if you have anything further. And I hope you have a good day and a good rest of your summer. Thanks.

感謝大家今天的參與。我們感謝您的提問，如果您有任何疑問，請隨時致電我們。我希望您度過美好的一天並度過愉快的暑假。謝謝。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。