奧多明尼昂貨運 (ODFL) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, and welcome to the Old Dominion Freight Line First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions). Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to hand the call over to Jack Atkins, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    早安,歡迎參加 Old Dominion Freight Line 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。 (操作員說明)。請注意,此事件正在被記錄。我現在想將電話轉給投資者關係總監傑克·阿特金斯 (Jack Atkins)。請繼續。

  • Jack Atkins

    Jack Atkins

  • Thank you, Andrea, and good morning, everyone, and welcome to the First Quarter 2024 Conference Call for Old Dominion Freight Line. Today's call is being recorded and will be available for replay beginning today and through May 1, 2024, by dialing 1 (877) 344-7529, access code 5260631. The replay of the webcast may also be accessed for 30 days at the company's website.

    謝謝 Andrea,大家早安,歡迎參加 Old Dominion Freight Line 2024 年第一季電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音中,從今天開始直至 2024 年 5 月 1 日,可透過撥打 1 (877) 344-7529(訪問代碼 5260631)重播。

  • This conference call may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 including statements, among others, regarding Old Dominion's expected financial and operating performance. For this purpose, any statements made during this call that are not statements of historical fact may be deemed to be forward-looking statements.

    本次電話會議可能包含 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述,包括有關 Old Dominion 預期財務和經營業績的陳述等。為此目的,本次電話會議期間所做的任何非歷史事實陳述的陳述都可能被視為前瞻性陳述。

  • Without limiting the foregoing, the words believes, anticipates, plans, expects and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. You are hereby cautioned that these statements may be affected by the important factors, among others, set forth in Old Dominion's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission and in this morning's news release. And consequently, actual operations and results may differ materially from the results discussed in the forward-looking statements.

    在不限制前述規定的情況下,「相信」、「預期」、「計劃」、「期望」和類似表達等詞語旨在識別前瞻性陳述。特此提醒您,這些陳述可能會受到 Old Dominion 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件以及今天上午的新聞稿中所述的重要因素的影響。因此,實際營運和結果可能與前瞻性陳述中討論的結果有重大差異。

  • The company undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. As a final note before we begin, we welcome your questions today but ask that you limit yourselves to one question at a time before returning to the queue. Thank you for your cooperation.

    本公司不承擔公開更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務,無論是由於新資訊、未來事件或其他原因。作為我們開始之前的最後一點,我們歡迎您今天提出問題,但請您在返回隊列之前一次只回答一個問題。謝謝您的合作。

  • At this time, I would like to turn the conference call over to Mr. Marty Freeman, the company's President and Chief Executive Officer, for opening remarks. Marty, please go ahead, sir.

    現在,我想將電話會議轉交給公司總裁兼執行長馬蒂·弗里曼先生致開幕詞。馬蒂,請繼續,先生。

  • Kevin M. Freeman - President & CEO

    Kevin M. Freeman - President & CEO

  • Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our first quarter conference call this morning. With me on the call today is Adam Satterfield, our CFO. And after some brief remarks, we will be glad to take your questions. Old Dominion's financial results improved during the first quarter of 2024 despite the continued softness in the domestic economy.

    大家早上好,歡迎參加今天早上我們的第一季電話會議。今天與我一起參加電話會議的是我們的財務長 Adam Satterfield。經過簡短的發言後,我們將很樂意回答您的問題。儘管國內經濟持續疲軟,Old Dominion 的財務表現在 2024 年第一季有所改善。

  • While the improvement in our results was modest, we produced year-over-year increases in both revenue and earnings per diluted share for the second straight quarter. Our earnings per diluted share of $1.34 also represents a new company record for the first quarter. To produce these results, our OD family of employees continued to execute on long-term strategic plan that helped create one of the strongest records of growth and profitability in the LTL industry.

    儘管我們的業績改善不大,但我們的收入和稀釋後每股收益連續第二個季度同比增長。我們 1.34 美元的攤薄每股收益也創下了公司第一季的新紀錄。為了取得這些成果,我們的 OD 員工家族繼續執行長期策略計劃,幫助創造了零擔行業最強勁的成長和獲利記錄之一。

  • This was evidenced by our team's ability to once again deliver 99% on-time service and a 0.1 cargo claims ratio for the first quarter. Consistently delivering superior service at a fair price is the central element of our strategic plan, and we have created a best-in-class value proposition as a result. This value proposition continues to create opportunities for us to win market share over the long term and has also helped strengthen our customer relationships.

    我們的團隊有能力再次提供 99% 的準時服務以及第一季 0.1 的貨物索賠率就證明了這一點。以合理的價格始終如一地提供優質服務是我們策略計畫的核心要素,因此我們創造了一流的價值主張。這項價值主張持續為我們創造長期贏得市場份額的機會,也有助於加強我們的客戶關係。

  • Our customer retention trends have remained steady over the past 2 years despite a domestic economy that has been sluggish for longer than we originally anticipated. Our customers have had fewer shipments to give us as a result of the slower economic environment, but we are strongly positioned to respond to their needs when demand eventually improves.

    儘管國內經濟低迷的時間比我們最初預期的要長,但我們的客戶保留趨勢在過去兩年中保持穩定。由於經濟環境放緩,我們的客戶向我們提供的出貨量減少了,但當需求最終改善時,我們有能力滿足他們的需求。

  • Demand can quickly -- can very quickly change in the LTL industry and the OD team has experience in dealing with these challenges that rapid growth can present. This is why we focus so intently on our long-term market share initiatives and make decisions to help us achieve these goals despite the cost implications that may impact us at the short term.

    零擔產業的需求可能很快就會發生變化,OD 團隊在應對快速成長帶來的這些挑戰方面擁有豐富的經驗。這就是為什麼我們如此專注於我們的長期市場份額計劃,並做出決策來幫助我們實現這些目標,儘管成本影響可能會在短期內影響我們。

  • Our capital expenditure program is a prime example of this, as we have invested $757.3 million in total capital expenditures in 2023 and expect to spend approximately $750 million this year to stay ahead of our growth curve. The resulting depreciation has recreated some short-term cost headwinds that slightly impacted our first quarter operating ratio, but we have improved our fleet and also have approximately 30% excess capacity in our service center network to support future growth.

    我們的資本支出計畫就是一個很好的例子,因為我們在 2023 年的總資本支出中投資了 7.573 億美元,預計今年將支出約 7.5 億美元,以保持領先於我們的成長曲線。由此產生的折舊再次造成了一些短期成本阻力,對我們第一季的營運比率略有影響,但我們改進了我們的機隊,我們的服務中心網路也有大約30% 的過剩產能,以支持未來的成長。

  • The LTL industry has seen significant disruption over the past 9 months, but we believe the strategic advantages that we have allowed us to outgrow our industry for decades and will continue. Other carriers may be able to add service centers or purchase more equipment, but what has differentiated us from other carriers is not so easy to duplicate, which is our culture and our OD family spirit.

    零擔產業在過去 9 個月中經歷了重大顛覆,但我們相信,我們的策略優勢使我們能夠在數十年中超越我們的產業,並將持續下去。其他業者可能能夠增加服務中心或購買更多設備,但我們與其他業者的差異並不那麼容易複製,這是我們的文化和我們的OD家族精神。

  • Our people are the most important element of our strategic plan and our entire OD family of employees is committed to a culture of excellence. We invest significantly in our employees to help ensure that we are regularly educating and training our team. We have trained most 1/3 of our current drivers through our internal OD truck driving training program, and we intend to keep using this program to produce safe and qualified drivers.

    我們的員工是我們策略計畫中最重要的組成部分,我們整個 OD 員工家族都致力於創造卓越的文化。我們對員工進行了大量投資,以幫助確保我們定期教育和培訓我們的團隊。我們已經透過內部 OD 卡車駕駛培訓計劃培訓了目前 1/3 的駕駛員,並且我們打算繼續使用該計劃來培養安全、合格的駕駛員。

  • We also continue to invest in our management and sales training programs, which we believe will help produce the next generation of OD leaders. These are additional examples of decisions that create short-term costs, but are more willing to incur these costs to be prepared for our future. Our consistent investments in our people, our service and our network are the key reasons why we have one more market share than any other carrier over the past 10 years. Having each of these elements in place is also why we continue to believe that we are the best positioned company in the LTL industry to benefit from an improving economy.

    我們也繼續投資於管理和銷售培訓計劃,我們相信這將有助於培養下一代 OD 領導者。這些是造成短期成本的決策的額外範例,但我們更願意承擔這些成本,為我們的未來做好準備。我們對員工、服務和網路的持續投資是我們在過去 10 年中比任何其他營運商多出一個市場份額的關鍵原因。具備這些要素也是我們繼續相信我們是零擔產業中最有能力從經濟改善中受益的公司的原因。

  • Delivering superior service is ultimately what wins market share in our industry. And I can assure you that everyone on OD's team is more committed than ever to deliver superior service to our customers and ultimately add value to our supply chains.

    提供卓越的服務最終是贏得我們行業市場份額的關鍵。我可以向您保證,OD 團隊中的每個人都比以往任何時候都更致力於為我們的客戶提供卓越的服務,並最終為我們的供應鏈增加價值。

  • We also have the financial strength and consistent returns to support investments needed to help achieve our long-term vision for profitable growth. As we continue to execute on a proven plan to achieve this vision, we believe we can drive further improvement in shareholder value.

    我們也擁有財務實力和穩定的回報來支持所需的投資,以幫助實現我們獲利成長的長期願景。隨著我們繼續執行經過驗證的計劃來實現這一願景,我們相信我們可以推動股東價值的進一步提高。

  • Thank you for joining us this morning. And now Adam will discuss our first quarter financial results in greater detail.

    感謝您今天早上加入我們。現在,亞當將更詳細地討論我們第一季的財務表現。

  • Adam N. Satterfield - Executive VP of Finance, CFO & Assistant Secretary

    Adam N. Satterfield - Executive VP of Finance, CFO & Assistant Secretary

  • Thank you, Marty, and good morning. Old Dominion's revenue for the first quarter of 2024 was $1.5 billion, which was a 1.2% increase from the prior year. This slight increase in revenue was primarily due to a 4.1% increase in LTL revenue per hundredweight was partially offset by the 3.2% decrease in LTL tons per day.

    謝謝你,馬蒂,早安。 Old Dominion 2024年第一季營收為15億美元,較上年成長1.2%。收入小幅增長主要是由於每英擔零擔收入增長 4.1%,但被每天零擔噸數下降 3.2% 部分抵消。

  • Our quarterly operating ratio increased 10 basis points to 73.5% as compared to last year, while our earnings per diluted share increased 3.9% to $1.34. On a sequential basis, our revenue per day for the first quarter decreased 7.0% when compared to the fourth quarter of 2023 with LTL tons per day decreasing 5.5% and LTL shipments per day decreasing 5.2%.

    與去年相比,我們的季度營運比率成長了 10 個基點,達到 73.5%,稀釋後每股收益成長 3.9%,達到 1.34 美元。與 2023 年第四季相比,我們第一季的每日營收季減 7.0%,每日零擔噸數下降 5.5%,每日零擔貨運量下降 5.2%。

  • For comparison, the 10-year average sequential change for these metrics includes a decrease of 1.3% in revenue per day, a decrease of 1.0% in tons per day and a decrease of 0.3% in shipments per day. The monthly sequential changes in LTL tons per day during the first quarter were as follows: January decreased 3.9% as compared to December. February increased 1.9% from January, and March increased 2.4% as compared to February.

    相比之下,這些指標的 10 年平均連續變化包括每日收入下降 1.3%、每日噸數下降 1.0% 以及每日發貨量下降 0.3%。第一季每日零擔噸數較上季變動如下: 1 月較 12 月下降 3.9%。 2月季增1.9%,3月較上季成長2.4%。

  • The 10-year average change for these respective months is an increase of 0.8% in January, an increase of 1.5% in February and an increase of 4.8% in March. Please remember, however, that Good Friday was in March this year, and the average sequential change for March when that is the case, is an increase of 2.5%.

    這些月份的 10 年平均變化是,1 月份增長 0.8%,2 月份增長 1.5%,3 月份增長 4.8%。但請記住,耶穌受難日是在今年 3 月,在這種情況下,3 月的平均環比變化為 2.5%。

  • While there are still a few work days remaining in April, our month-to-date revenue per day has increased by approximately 5.5% to 6% when compared to April of 2023. Our LTL tonnage per day has increased by approximately 2% to 2.5%, while LTL revenue per hundredweight has increased by approximately 4%. Our LTL revenue per hundredweight, excluding fuel surcharges, has increased approximately 4.5%, which is trending lower than our growth rate in the first quarter.

    雖然 4 月還剩下幾個工作日,但與 2023 年 4 月相比,我們本月至今的每日收入增加了約 5.5% 至 6%。 ,而每英擔零擔收入增加了約4%。我們的每英擔零擔收入(不含燃油附加費)成長了約 4.5%,低於第一季的成長率。

  • We want to be clear that the slowdown in this metric does not represent any change in our pricing philosophy or a change in the overall pricing environment. Certain mix changes are impacting this metric in April as the change in our LTL revenue per shipment is more comparable with the first quarter.

    我們想明確的是,該指標的放緩並不代表我們定價理念的任何變化或整體定價環境的變化。某些組合變化正在影響 4 月的這項指標,因為我們每批貨物的零擔收入變化與第一季更具可比性。

  • Nevertheless, we will continue with our long-term consistent approach of targeting yield improvements that exceed our cost inflation and support our capital expenditure program, and we believe we can achieve those initiatives this year. We will provide the actual revenue-related details for April in our first quarter Form 10-Q as usual.

    儘管如此,我們將繼續採取長期一致的方針,以超越成本通膨的收益率提高為目標,並支持我們的資本支出計劃,我們相信今年可以實現這些舉措。我們將像往常一樣在第一季的 10-Q 表格中提供 4 月份的實際收入相關詳細資訊。

  • Our operating ratio increased 10 basis points to 73.5% for the first quarter of 2024, as the impact from the increase in our overhead cost more than offset the improvement rather than our direct costs. Many of our fixed overhead costs increased as a percent of revenue due to the flatness in revenue and the significance of our capital expenditures over the past year. This is most evidenced by the 50 basis point increase in our depreciation cost as a percent of revenue.

    2024 年第一季度,我們的營運比率增加了 10 個基點,達到 73.5%,因為管理費用增加的影響遠遠抵消了改善的影響,而不是我們的直接成本。由於過去一年收入的平穩和資本支出的重要性,我們的許多固定管理費用佔收入的百分比增加。最能證明這一點的是我們的折舊成本佔收入的百分比增加了 50 個基點。

  • We are pleased, however, that the improvement in yield and ongoing focus on operating efficiencies helped us improve our direct operating cost as a percent of revenue by approximately 100 basis points. This change included improvements in our operating supplies and expenses that offset a slight increase in salaries, wages and benefits as a percent of revenue.

    然而,我們很高興的是,產量的提高和對營運效率的持續關注幫助我們將直接營運成本佔收入的百分比提高了約 100 個基點。這項變化包括我們營運供應和支出的改善,抵消了薪資、工資和福利佔收入百分比的小幅成長。

  • Our team continued to efficiently manage our variable costs while also delivering best-in-class service standards, which is not easy to do in an environment with lower operating density. We continued to believe that the keys to long-term operating ratio improvement are the combination of density and yield, both of which generally require a favorable macroeconomic environment.

    我們的團隊繼續有效地管理我們的可變成本,同時提供一流的服務標準,這在營運密度較低的環境中並不容易做到。我們仍然認為,長期開工率改善的關鍵是密度和產量的結合,而這兩者通常需要有利的宏觀經濟環境。

  • Once we have those factors working in our favor again, we are confident in our ability to produce further improvement in our operating ratio and we'll continue to work towards our goal of producing a sub-70% annual operating ratio.

    一旦這些因素再次對我們有利,我們對進一步提高營運率的能力充滿信心,我們將繼續努力實現年度營運率低於 70% 的目標。

  • Old Dominion's cash flow from operations totaled $423.9 million for the first quarter, while capital expenditures were $119.5 million. We utilized $85.3 million of cash for our share repurchase program during the first quarter, while cash dividends totaled $56.6 million.

    Old Dominion 第一季營運現金流總計 4.239 億美元,資本支出為 1.195 億美元。第一季我們使用了 8,530 萬美元的現金用於股票回購計劃,現金股利總計 5,660 萬美元。

  • Our effective tax rate for the first quarter of 2024 was 25.6% as compared to 25.8% for the first quarter of 2023. We currently anticipate our effective tax rate to be 25.4% for the second quarter. This concludes our prepared remarks this morning.

    我們 2024 年第一季的有效稅率為 25.6%,而 2023 年第一季為 25.8%。我們今天早上準備好的演講到此結束。

  • Operator, we're happy to open the floor for questions at this time.

    接線員,我們很高興現在可以提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions). And our first question will come from Ravi Shanker of Morgan Stanley.

    (操作員說明)。我們的第一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的拉維·尚克。

  • Ravi Shanker - Executive Director

    Ravi Shanker - Executive Director

  • So great summary of where we got to this point. Is 2Q the quarter where kind of we see the best of what this industry looks like in a post yellow environment, and if tonnage picks up and you have 2024 pricing that comes in, kind of how do we expect 2Q to trend versus seasonality?

    我們走到這一步的總結非常好。第二季是我們在後黃色環境下看到該行業最好的季度嗎?

  • Adam N. Satterfield - Executive VP of Finance, CFO & Assistant Secretary

    Adam N. Satterfield - Executive VP of Finance, CFO & Assistant Secretary

  • Yes. I think that's a difficult one to answer. It's obviously dependent on the top line. Typically, the second quarter is when we see the big acceleration in revenue and historically speaking, the 10-year average increase in revenue from the first to the second quarter is 8.7%. And we're not starting out with that type of growth in April. Things still feel good to us, and we're finally seeing some year-over-year revenue growth, but it's not quite at the levels of getting back to seasonality.

    是的。我認為這是一個很難回答的問題。這顯然取決於頂線。通常情況下,第二季是我們看到收入大幅加速的時候,從歷史上看,第一季到第二季的 10 年平均收入增幅為 8.7%。我們並沒有從四月開始出現這種類型的成長。我們的感覺仍然不錯,我們終於看到了一些同比收入成長,但還沒有達到恢復季節性的水平。

  • We have been encouraged that we've seen our volumes increasing really into February, into March and have essentially increased thus far into April, but again, not at what those normal seasonal levels are.

    我們感到鼓舞的是,我們看到我們的銷量在 2 月份、3 月份確實有所增加,而且到 4 月份為止也基本上有所增加,但同樣,沒有達到正常的季節性水平。

  • So to kind of frame up the second quarter operating ratio guidance, it's going to be very dependent on what the top line does. If you think about last year at this point in time, we were at a point where we weren't looking at any sequential revenue growth, and we were targeting margins to be flat. If we were able to grow at what the normal seasonal levels would be on the top line, that would be that 8.7%, sequential growth would be about 12% year-over-year growth.

    因此,為了製定第二季度的營運比率指導,這將在很大程度上取決於營收的表現。如果你想想去年的這個時間點,我們當時並沒有考慮任何連續的營收成長,而且我們的目標是利潤率持平。如果我們能夠以正常季節性水準實現營收成長,即 8.7%,那麼環比成長率將約為 12%。

  • So obviously, we're ways away from that. Where we are at this sort of 6%, I would say we probably are somewhere in the middle of that sliding scale. If we were to stay at 6% year-over-year growth, then I would probably put us somewhere at a target of maybe about 150 basis points of improvement from the first quarter.

    顯然,我們離這個目標還很遠。我們現在的比例是 6%,我想說我們可能處於滑動比例的中間位置。如果我們要保持 6% 的同比增長,那麼我可能會將我們的目標定為比第一季提高約 150 個基點。

  • So like always, the second quarter is going to be dependent upon how much acceleration we see. And we're not -- while we're encouraged by some things, we're not ready to make the call to say that things are definitely accelerating and that we can hit some of those sequential points as we go through May and June. But obviously, hopefully, we'll continue to see some acceleration there, and that will create operating density for us and will allow us to improve our margin from the first quarter to the second.

    因此,與往常一樣,第二季將取決於我們看到的加速程度。雖然我們對某些事情感到鼓舞,但我們還沒有準備好打電話說事情肯定正在加速,我們可以在五月和六月達到其中一些連續點。但顯然,希望我們將繼續看到那裡的一些加速,這將為我們創造營運密度,並使我們能夠提高從第一季到第二季的利潤率。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Daniel Imbro of Stephens.

    下一個問題來自史蒂芬斯的丹尼爾·因布羅。

  • Unidentified Analyst

    Unidentified Analyst

  • This is Grant on for Daniel. There was a comment in the release around some recent developments that suggest overall demand for your services may be improving. Could you maybe just provide a little more context around what that comment was referring to? Is it more a weight per shipment comment that is maybe impacting some of your yield metrics April that you discussed earlier? And maybe if you could also just provide a bit of an update on the underlying demand environment.

    這是格蘭特為丹尼爾做的。新聞稿中有一條關於最近一些事態發展的評論,表明對您的服務的整體需求可能正在改善。您能否就該評論所指的內容提供更多背景資訊?您之前討論過的,是否更多的是每批貨物的重量評論可能會影響您四月份的一些產量指標?也許您也可以提供一些有關潛在需求環境的更新。

  • Adam N. Satterfield - Executive VP of Finance, CFO & Assistant Secretary

    Adam N. Satterfield - Executive VP of Finance, CFO & Assistant Secretary

  • Yes, I would say right now, underlying domain has felt relatively consistent, but it does feel like things are improving a bit. And obviously, like I just mentioned, we've seen some sequential acceleration obviously, January, we see pretty good with winter weather, and we saw the impact of that. But we increased from there through February and then saw again some of the sequential improvement in shipments through March and thus far into April.

    是的,我現在想說的是,底層領域感覺相對一致,但確實感覺事情正在改善。顯然,就像我剛才提到的,我們明顯看到了一些連續的加速,一月份,我們看到冬季天氣相當好,我們看到了其影響。但我們從那時起一直到 2 月都有所增加,然後又看到 3 月以及迄今為止的 4​​ 月出貨量出現了一些連續改善。

  • But I feel like there are several factors that are starting to turn. We've been at -- and a long slow cycle for going back to April '22. And maybe to borrow a line from Taylor Swift is that over now, we're kind of waiting to see, but we saw ISM inflect back above 50% for the first time.

    但我覺得有幾個因素開始轉變。我們已經經歷了一個漫長而緩慢的周期,可以追溯到 22 年 4 月。也許借用泰勒絲 (Taylor Swift) 的話來說,現在我們正在觀望,但我們看到 ISM 首次回升至 50% 以上。

  • Like you mentioned, our weight per shipment has increased again. We saw a little bit of a change from January to February. It dropped a little bit, but then it came back in March and at this point through April, we're up a little bit higher. So you sort of balance that with conversations that we've had from customers and we look at our national account reporting on wins and losses.

    正如您所提到的,我們每批貨物的重量再次增加。從一月到二月,我們看到了一些變化。它下降了一點,但在三月又回來了,到了四月份,我們又上升了一點。因此,您可以透過我們與客戶的對話來平衡這一點,我們會查看我們的國民帳戶報告的盈虧情況。

  • There's a lot of good things that feel like they're developing. And if history repeats itself, usually a couple of months after that ISM reflect -- or inflects to the positive, we start seeing some improvement in our industrial activity as well. And that's something that will steal on our retail outperformed our industrial business in the first quarter.

    有很多好的事情感覺正在發展。如果歷史重演,通常是在 ISM 反映後幾個月——或者轉為積極的情況,我們也開始看到我們的工業活動有所改善。這將使我們的零售業務在第一季的表現優於我們的工業業務。

  • So if that's something that we can start seeing some recovery there, all of those things and factors hopefully will be increasing the demand for LTL service. And we're certainly in a position to take advantage of that opportunity as it presents itself.

    因此,如果我們可以開始看到那裡的一些復甦,那麼所有這些事情和因素都有望增加對零擔服務的需求。我們當然能夠充分利用這個機會。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Jordan Alliger of Goldman Sachs.

    下一個問題來自高盛的喬丹·阿利格。

  • Jordan Robert Alliger - Research Analyst

    Jordan Robert Alliger - Research Analyst

  • Just curious if you could talk to a little bit more the yield side of the equation, perhaps a little more color around mix, core pricing you're seeing as your contracts come up? And I guess, broadly, is this any way -- is the yield deceleration -- I don't know, is it tied in some way to more intense competition out there given industry spare capacity?

    只是好奇您是否可以多談談等式的收益率方面,也許可以多談談混合方面的色彩,合約出現時您看到的核心定價?我想,從廣義上講,這是否會導致收益率下降?

  • Adam N. Satterfield - Executive VP of Finance, CFO & Assistant Secretary

    Adam N. Satterfield - Executive VP of Finance, CFO & Assistant Secretary

  • Yes. That's why we wanted to be clear with the comments earlier that we don't see this in any way as being a reflection on the overall environment. And certainly, there is no change with respect to what our yield management initiatives are. We continue to target trying to achieve yield improvement that ultimately leads to our revenue per shipment outperforming our cost per shipment.

    是的。這就是為什麼我們想澄清先前的評論,我們不認為這以任何方式反映了整體環境。當然,我們的收益管理計劃沒有任何變化。我們繼續致力於提高產量,最終使我們的每次發貨收入超過每次發貨成本。

  • That's something we've been able to achieve and we've targeted 100 to 150 basis points in the past. And obviously, with the weakness in the volume environment over the past year, we weren't able to achieve that positive spread in 2023, but we kept on investing and that's created more costs, and we're continuing to invest this year.

    這是我們已經能夠實現的目標,過去我們的目標是 100 到 150 個基點。顯然,由於過去一年銷售環境疲軟,我們無法在 2023 年實現正利差,但我們繼續投資,這創造了更多成本,今年我們將繼續投資。

  • I do think we're getting close back to this point and perhaps it will inflect back in the second quarter to where we do see a positive spread, probably not to that full 100 to 150 basis point delta. But I do think that we can see our revenue per shipment now going back above what our cost per shipment change would otherwise be.

    我確實認為我們正在接近這一點,也許它會在第二季度拐回到我們確實看到正利差的地方,可能不會達到 100 到 150 個基點的增量。但我確實認為我們可以看到我們的每次發貨收入現在回到了我們每次發貨成本變化的水平之上。

  • But we're continuing to work through contracts as they're coming due. We're winning some new business. Sometimes that can come on board when you look at things on a hundredweight basis, that number can skew and be skewed by multiple factors, be it the weight per shipment, the length of haul, which has been decreasing, the class of freight as well.

    但我們將繼續處理即將到期的合約。我們正在贏得一些新業務。有時,當你以英擔為基礎來看待事物時,這個數字可能會出現偏差,並且會受到多種因素的影響,例如每批貨物的重量、一直在減少的運輸長度、以及貨運等級。

  • There's multiple things that can move that number around and the year-over-year growth is just a little bit slower in April than where we were in the first quarter. But our revenue per shipment overall is what matters the most, and that's performing pretty consistent with where we were in the first quarter, at least from a core basis, it's a little bit higher right now, including the fuel.

    有許多因素可以改變這個數字,而且 4 月的年成長僅比第一季稍慢一些。但我們的每批貨物的整體收入是最重要的,這與我們第一季的表現非常一致,至少從核心基礎來看,現在有點高,包括燃料。

  • But on a core basis, looking at revenue per shipment ex fuel, pretty close to where we were in the first quarter. So -- and I still feel good about the environment and certainly seeing the activity that we've had internally and the increases that we continue to achieve, we feel good about things and especially the line of sight to seeing some positive spread once again of rev per ship outperforming the cost per ship.

    但從核心角度來看,每批貨物的收入(不含燃料)非常接近第一季的水準。因此,我仍然對環境感覺良好,當然看到我們內部開展的活動以及我們繼續實現的增長,我們對事情感覺良好,尤其是再次看到一些積極傳播的視線每艘船的轉速優於每艘船的成本。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Bascome Majors of Susquehanna.

    下一個問題來自薩斯奎哈納的巴斯科姆·梅傑斯。

  • Bascome Majors - Research Analyst

    Bascome Majors - Research Analyst

  • I think your long-term shareholders can be happy with the discipline you've held through this 2-year protracted down cycle on sticking to your guidance and strategy and waiting to really monetize the capacity in the better part of the cycle in the future here, especially with all the changes in the competitive landscape and capacity moving around at some of your peers.

    我認為,您的長期股東會對您在這兩年的長期下行週期中所堅持的紀律感到滿意,即堅持您的指導和策略,並等待在未來的周期的更好部分中真正將產能貨幣化。

  • But as you look forward and wait for that inflection, are there things you are looking for in that the market may have changed and the strategy does require a tweak here or there? I'm just curious internally what you're watching for to see that things may have shifted in some way, shape or form in the way that customers are viewing OD.

    但是,當您展望並等待這種拐點時,您是否正在尋找市場可能發生變化並且策略確實需要在這裡或那裡進行調整的事情?我只是內心好奇你在觀察什麼,看看事情可能以某種方式、形狀或形式發生了變化,改變了客戶觀看 OD 的方式。

  • Adam N. Satterfield - Executive VP of Finance, CFO & Assistant Secretary

    Adam N. Satterfield - Executive VP of Finance, CFO & Assistant Secretary

  • Yes. I think certainly, time will tell and it's something that we continue to watch. And the business levels, our market share trends. All of those are pretty much have been in line with what we would have otherwise expected when we go through a slower economic environment. It's something where our market share is generally flattish and a little hard to track market share right now with the disruption post Yellow's closure.

    是的。我想當然,時間會證明一切,我們將繼續關注這一點。還有業務水準、我們的市佔率趨勢。所有這些幾乎都符合我們在經濟放緩的環境下的預期。我們的市場份額總體上持平,而且由於 Yellow 關閉後的混亂,現在很難追蹤市場份額。

  • And maybe the way I look at it is slightly different than the way some of you do. But if I compare at least what we have from a fourth quarter reporting where all the other carriers have reported, it looks like we're in really good shape with -- if you compare back to the second quarter, so kind of before and after that event.

    也許我看待它的方式與你們中的一些人的方式略有不同。但如果我至少比較第四季度的報告和所有其他運營商的報告,看起來我們的狀況非常好——如果你與第二季度進行比較,那麼之前和之後那個事件。

  • And we've gained some market share relative to the other public carriers combined. And the largest carrier in the space has gained the most shipments again, second quarter to the fourth quarter, not looking at just a year-over-year percent change but pre-event, post event they have, and then there's one other carrier that's grown about the same as us, just a little bit higher shipments per day.

    相對於其他公共運營商的總和,我們已經獲得了一些市場份額。從第二季度到第四季度,該領域最大的承運商再次獲得了最多的發貨量,不僅僅考慮同比百分比變化,還考慮活動前和活動後的情況,然後還有另一家承運商增長與我們大致相同,只是每天的出貨量稍高。

  • And then all of the other public carriers are pretty flat when you look otherwise. And so a lot of what we have seen historically is similar types of trends. And then when the economy starts inflecting back to the positive, that's the time when OD's model shines the brightest, and we think that will happen once again.

    當你以其他方式觀察時,所有其他公共航空公司的表現都相當平淡。因此,我們歷史上看到的許多趨勢都是類似的。然後,當經濟開始轉回正值時,OD 模型就會發揮出最耀眼的光芒,我們認為這種情況會再次發生。

  • Once we get some economic recovery, if you will, some real economic improvement where we've been running against the wind for the past 2 years, we get some tailwind from the economy, I think you will see that volume growth come through our network and we'll be able to leverage that improvement in operating density to drive that with improved operating ratio.

    一旦我們實現了一些經濟復甦,如果你願意的話,一些真正的經濟改善,過去兩年我們一直在逆風運行,我們會從經濟中獲得一些順風,我想你會看到通過我們的網絡實現銷量增長我們將能夠利用營運密度的改善來推動營運比率的提高。

  • So we don't believe at this point that anything will be any different. Like Marty said earlier, we're really pleased with our customer retention trends. The way that we've seen business levels change over the past 1.5 years, and it's been slower. We're in place and ready to respond to our customers' needs when they see their businesses [inflecting] back to the positive.

    因此,我們目前認為不會有任何不同。正如馬蒂之前所說,我們對客戶保留趨勢非常滿意。我們看到過去 1.5 年來業務水準發生了變化,而且變化速度較慢。當我們的客戶看到他們的業務[變化]恢復積極時,我們已準備好回應他們的需求。

  • So all the things are in place. We just need a little bit more improvement in the underlying freight demand environment to capitalize on it and certainly feel like we're closer to that event changing and that inflection point, and there have been some green shoots that if you're looking at things from a glass half full kind of standpoint, which I typically do, that you can read through and see some potential opportunity for perhaps later this year.

    所以所有的事情都已就位。我們只需要對潛在的貨運需求環境進行更多的改進來利用它,當然感覺我們更接近事件的變化和拐點,並且已經出現了一些萌芽,如果你正在看的話從我通常所做的半杯半滿的角度來看,你可以通讀並看到今年晚些時候可能出現的一些潛在機會。

  • And so we're definitely in place. We feel like all the pieces are there. And we said it earlier, anyone can go out and you can buy terminals, you can buy equipment. But the thing that differentiates us the most is our people and our culture. And those are things that cannot be duplicated, certainly not in any short period of time. And I think the commitment that we have from each of our employees to excellence and delivering superior service for our customers is what will allow OD's model to continue to shine into the future and allow us to achieve our long-term market share initiatives.

    所以我們肯定已經就位了。我們感覺所有的部分都在那裡。我們之前說過,任何人都可以出去,你可以購買終端,你可以購買設備。但最讓我們與眾不同的是我們的人民和我們的文化。這些都是無法複製的,尤其是在短時間內。我認為,我們每位員工對卓越的承諾以及為客戶提供優質服務的承諾將使 OD 的模式繼續閃耀未來,並使我們能夠實現長期的市場份額計劃。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Amit Mehrotra of Deutsche Bank.

    下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Amit Mehrotra。

  • Amit Singh Mehrotra - Director and Senior Research Analyst

    Amit Singh Mehrotra - Director and Senior Research Analyst

  • Adam, I just wanted to go back to the OR comment on the second quarter. I mean, it's -- if I just look at revenue per day, I assume it should accelerate given maybe easier comps rest of the quarter. So you're growing maybe revenue mid- to high single digits in the second quarter. And so the implied incrementals on that are like 25% to 30% to get to OR in 2Q? And I would just imagine with all the pricing that's been taken in the industry and the front-end loaded nature of the cost, like we could do better than that. I don't know if that's a fair view or not, but I'd love to get your opinion on that.

    Adam,我只想回到第二季的 OR 評論。我的意思是,如果我只看每天的收入,我認為考慮到本季剩餘時間的收入可能會更容易,它應該會加速。因此,第二季的收入可能會實現中位數到高個位數的成長。因此,在第二季度達到 OR 的隱含增量約為 25% 到 30%?我想,考慮到行業中採取的所有定價以及成本的前端加載性質,我們可以做得更好。我不知道這是否公平,但我很想聽聽您的意見。

  • And then maybe more higher level on the OR, you've got, I think, right now, probably 18% of your revenue is direct cost, if I'm doing my calculations right, and it's been as low as maybe 16%, so you got a couple of hundred basis points there. And then there's obviously leverage on mix and variable costs. Can you just talk about kind of the levers to improve margins over the next couple of years if we do get a recovery because there is this view that there's not much more to go when you're already doing a 72, 73 OR.

    然後也許在 OR 上更高的水平,我想,現在,你的收入的 18% 可能是直接成本,如果我的計算正確的話,它可能低至 16%,所以你在那裡得到了幾百個基點。顯然,混合成本和變動成本也具有槓桿作用。如果我們確實實現復甦,您能否談談未來幾年提高利潤率的槓桿方式,因為有一種觀點認為,當您已經進行 72、73 OR 時,就沒有什麼可做的了。

  • Adam N. Satterfield - Executive VP of Finance, CFO & Assistant Secretary

    Adam N. Satterfield - Executive VP of Finance, CFO & Assistant Secretary

  • Well, if you remember, we have done a 69.6 and a 69.1 in the second and third quarters of 2022 when we had more revenue growth going on and felt like we had room to go from there. So nothing's changed with respect to where we feel like we can take the operating ratio long term, which is part of the reason why we repeated the goal of being able to achieve a sub-70 annual operating ratio.

    好吧,如果你還記得的話,我們在 2022 年第二季度和第三季度分別取得了 69.6 和 69.1 的成績,當時我們的收入增長更多,並且感覺我們還有空間。因此,我們認為可以長期維持營運比率的情況沒有任何改變,這也是我們重複實現年度營運比率低於 70 的目標的部分原因。

  • But there's a few things to try to unpack from that question. And I would say that when we're initially in the upswing, get into the environment where we start seeing revenue growth again, eventually, when you get into it, that's periods of higher incremental margins for us, but you got to get to the point where you've got enough revenue to kind of recover some of the fixed overhead costs that -- and the growth, improvement or increase rather in some of the other variable costs that go along with preparing for growth.

    但有一些事情需要嘗試從這個問題中解開。我想說,當我們最初處於上升期時,進入我們開始再次看到收入增長的環境,最終,當你進入它時,這對我們來說是增量利潤率更高的時期,但你必須達到你有足夠的收入來收回一些固定管理費用,以及成長、改善或增加,而不是與準備成長相關的其他一些變動成本。

  • And we've already instituted some of those costs. For example, we've added about 500 people since September of last year. We were averaging 51,000 shipments per day in September last year, and now we're at about 48,000. So we've tried to continue to do all the things to get ahead of anticipated growth, and we're having to manage all of those costs, and we do.

    我們已經制定了其中一些費用。例如,自去年 9 月以來,我們增加了約 500 名員工。去年 9 月,我們平均每天出貨 51,000 件,現在約為 48,000 件。因此,我們試圖繼續採取一切措施來超越預期的成長,我們必須管理所有這些成本,而我們確實做到了。

  • We manage the efficiency of all elements of our operation and trying to manage and match all of those costs with our revenue trends. But I would say that the uncertainty for the second quarter is just whether or not revenue will continue to accelerate or what we end up seeing if we continue to improve from here, that's going to be an improvement in operating density, and that will drive further improvement in our direct cost performance.

    我們管理營運所有要素的效率,並嘗試管理所有這些成本並將其與我們的收入趨勢相匹配。但我想說,第二季的不確定性只是收入是否會繼續加速,或者如果我們繼續從現在開始改善,我們最終會看到什麼,這將是營運密度的改善,這將進一步推動改善我們的直接成本績效。

  • If you pull our operating ratio in the first quarter apart, I think you may have said it in the inverse, but our direct cost, which are all the costs associated with moving freight, most of which are variable, we're about 53% of revenue. Our overhead costs, which are more fixed in nature, is between 20% to 21% of revenue.

    如果你把我們第一季的營運比率拉開,我想你可能會反過來說,但是我們的直接成本,也就是所有與運輸貨運相關的成本,其中大部分是可變的,我們大約是53 %的收入。我們的管理費用本質上是固定的,佔收入的 20% 到 21% 之間。

  • So those costs are somewhere around $300 million, a little bit higher than that in the first quarter. That $300 million is going to be there in the second quarter and it's probably going to be closer to $305 million, plus or minus. So you've kind of got that base cost to bounce around. But on -- and those being at 20% to 21% to one of your other points, yes, that's been as low as 16% in the past when you're really leveraging up, in particular, all the investments that we've made in capital expenditures and driving improvement there.

    因此,這些成本約為 3 億美元,比第一季略高。這 3 億美元將出現在第二季度,而且可能會接近 3.05 億美元(無論上下)。所以你有基本成本可以反彈。但是,對於你的其他觀點之一,那些是 20% 到 21%,是的,過去當你真正利用槓桿時,特別是我們已經進行的所有投資,這一比例低至 16%。改善。

  • On the direct cost side, though, that 53% just as late as the third quarter of last year, those costs were around 51%. And that was still in a tough operating environment. So we definitely have got further room for improvement from a direct cost basis. And then obviously, there's a lot of leverage there on the overhead side. And those factors are what gives us confidence that we can get the operating ratio back to sub-70.

    不過,在直接成本方面,截至去年第三季度,這些成本約為 51%,為 53%。那仍然是在艱難的經營環境中。因此,從直接成本的角度來看,我們肯定還有進一步改進的空間。顯然,管理費用方面有許多槓桿作用。這些因素讓我們有信心將營運率恢復到 70 以下。

  • But we're not going to make decisions that would help cost in the short run that may jeopardize the opportunity in the long run. The reason we've been able to outgrow our competitors in strong growth periods like 2018, 2021, where our tonnage growth can be 1,000 basis points or more higher than the industry is because of the decisions we make in tougher times.

    但我們不會做出短期內有利於成本的決策,而長期來看可能會危及機會。我們之所以能夠在 2018 年、2021 年等強勁增長時期超越競爭對手,我們的噸位增長可能比行業高 1,000 個基點或更多,這是因為我們在困難時期做出的決策。

  • We've got the financial strength to be able to invest in service center growth to be able to invest in our equipment to invest in employees and do all the things to be ready for that growth. And that's why oftentimes in those strongest growth periods, we're growing double-digit volumes and a lot of our competitors are flattish in those periods. So all those same strategic advantages, the pre-investment ahead of the growth curve, all of those continue to be in place, and we'll get the most leverage on them when we get into a real accelerating and growth environment again.

    我們擁有足夠的財務實力,能夠投資於服務中心的發展,能夠投資於我們的設備,投資於員工,並為這種成長做好一切準備。這就是為什麼在那些最強勁的成長時期,我們的銷售量經常以兩位數的速度成長,而我們的許多競爭對手在這些時期卻表現平平。因此,所有這些相同的策略優勢,成長曲線之前的預投資,所有這些都將繼續存在,當我們再次進入真正的加速和成長環境時,我們將充分利用它們。

  • Amit Singh Mehrotra - Director and Senior Research Analyst

    Amit Singh Mehrotra - Director and Senior Research Analyst

  • But Adam, if I could just quickly follow up on that for a second because the strategy seems to be we're going to sit around and wait for somebody to get screw up, and that's when the market share opportunity is going to come. And that maybe have been the case in the last 10 or 15 years, but what's plan B? Like what happens if no national player screws up because everybody is focused on service and they actually deliver, what is the plan of action then?

    但是亞當,如果我能快速跟進一下的話,因為策略似乎是我們將坐下來等待有人搞砸,而那時市場份額機會就會到來。過去 10 年或 15 年的情況可能就是這樣,但 B 計畫是什麼?就像如果沒有國家隊球員搞砸了會發生什麼,因為每個人都專注於服務並且他們實際上提供了服務,那麼行動計劃是什麼?

  • Adam N. Satterfield - Executive VP of Finance, CFO & Assistant Secretary

    Adam N. Satterfield - Executive VP of Finance, CFO & Assistant Secretary

  • Look, we're not just sitting back doing nothing. We're fighting every day to get better and working with each one of our customer accounts to make sure that we're in there. We're having conversations about how we're going to be able to grow with them. But we also don't have to feel the need to go out and try to chase volume, which many of competitors have done in the past, and then they get their network full and they're unable to grow.

    聽著,我們不只是坐著無所事事。我們每天都在努力變得更好,並與我們的每個客戶帳戶合作,以確保我們能夠做到這一點。我們正在討論如何與他們一起成長。但我們也不必覺得有必要出去嘗試追逐銷量,就像許多競爭對手過去所做的那樣,然後他們的網絡已滿,無法增長。

  • So the point that I was making earlier about there's not been as much growth when you look at what has happened sequentially over the last couple of quarters from the third quarter to the fourth quarter.

    因此,我之前提出的觀點是,當您查看從第三季度到第四季度的過去幾季連續發生的情況時,並沒有那麼多的增長。

  • I mean, when you look, I see that our share has improved from second quarter to fourth quarter, from third quarter to fourth quarter as well. So we're doing this in an environment that is not creating a lot of freight activity. I think that when we get out of this environment, I think that the time to challenge our model would be if we're in an environment where there is robust economic growth, and we're not able to achieve anything, but we are a long ways from there.

    我的意思是,當你看時,我發現我們的份額從第二季到第四季有所提高,從第三季到第四季也有所提高。因此,我們是在一個不會產生大量貨運活動的環境中進行此操作的。我認為,當我們擺脫這種環境時,挑戰我們的模式的時候就是如果我們處於一個經濟強勁增長的環境中,我們無法取得任何成就,但我們是一個距離那裡還有很長的路要走。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Eric Morgan of Barclays.

    下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的艾瑞克摩根。

  • Eric Thomas Morgan - Research Analyst

    Eric Thomas Morgan - Research Analyst

  • I wanted to follow up on the demand environment and in particular, how you would characterize the depth of this to your slumping volumes because obviously, the industry is underperformed industrial production quite a bit since early '22. But if we benchmark 2019 and try to kind of look through the pandemic, both are kind of somewhat flat.

    我想跟進需求環境,特別是您如何描述銷量下滑的深度,因為顯然,自 22 年初以來,該行業的表現明顯落後於工業生產。但如果我們以 2019 年為基準並試圖審視這場流行病,就會發現兩者都有些持平。

  • So just curious if we think we've overcorrected and could see a bit of a catch-up on the upside, if there is some macro improvement? Or if you think maybe we're more an equilibrium now and should see more of kind of industrial production type growth from here?

    所以只是好奇我們是否認為我們已經矯枉過正,並且可能會看到一些上行的追趕,是否有一些宏觀改善?或者,如果您認為也許我們現在更均衡,並且應該從這裡看到更多工業生產類型的成長?

  • Adam N. Satterfield - Executive VP of Finance, CFO & Assistant Secretary

    Adam N. Satterfield - Executive VP of Finance, CFO & Assistant Secretary

  • Yes. I mean certainly in the past 2 years have felt more like 2009 recession. When you look back last year and see double-digit tonnage in some periods and overall for the year, we were down 9%. It was a very tough operating environment. But again, we continue to try to power through it and position ourselves for future market share opportunities.

    是的。我的意思是,過去兩年確實感覺更像是 2009 年的經濟衰退。當你回顧去年時,會發現某些時期和全年總體噸位達到兩位數,我們下降了 9%。這是一個非常艱難的經營環境。但我們仍然會繼續努力,為未來的市佔機會做好準備。

  • And I think that's what we've done, managing all of our other incremental costs along the way to keep producing what is by far and away the best operating ratio in our industry. And so I think that when you get back to an environment where transportation in general, the truckload market, in particular, has been incredibly weak.

    我認為這就是我們所做的,一路管理我們所有其他增量成本,以保持我們行業迄今為止最好的營運比率。因此,我認為,當你回到整個交通運輸市場(尤其是卡車裝載市場)的環境時,它已經非常疲軟。

  • And I think there has been some spillover of volumes that have gone into that industry, just given the overall weakness there and players that are willing to move freight take some maybe large heavy-weighted LTL shipments for cost or less than their cost to operate just to kind of keep the trucks rolling. That's been another challenge, if you will, that we've had to contend with.

    我認為,考慮到該行業的整體疲軟,願意運輸貨物的參與者可能會以成本或低於其運營成本的方式接受一些可能較大的重型零擔運輸,因此該行業已經出現了一些溢出量。卡車繼續行駛。如果你願意的話,這是我們必須面對的另一個挑戰。

  • But that will all change as the economy improves, just like we've seen in prior cycles. And I think that our industry will be tight once again. I continue to believe that despite some other carriers adding service centers that we will be a capacity challenged industry in the future as well.

    但隨著經濟的改善,這一切都會改變,就像我們在之前的周期中看到的那樣。我認為我們的行業將再次吃緊。我仍然相信,儘管其他一些運營商增加了服務中心,但我們未來也將是一個容量挑戰的行業。

  • And ultimately, all of the service centers and door capacities that existed with Yellow, not 100% of that is going to come back into the market, as we've already seen with the process that it's played out over the last 9 months.

    最終,Yellow 現有的所有服務中心和門容量(並非 100%)都將回到市場,正如我們已經在過去 9 個月的流程中看到的那樣。

  • So those are all things that we think will end up creating opportunities for us, again, and I think that once we have that tailwind coming at us from an overall industry demand standpoint that we'll be able to capitalize and be able to significantly grow our volumes like we've been able to do in the past and then leverage that growth through the operating ratio.

    因此,我們認為這些最終都會再次為我們創造機會,而且我認為,一旦從整體行業需求的角度來看,我們將能夠利用並顯著增長。透過營運比率利用這種成長。

  • And if you look back in any period in past, when we've lost the operating ratio in any given year or period and go back to 2009 and look at that, we lost -- the operating ratio deteriorated 270 basis points that year. Once we get the power of leverage in the model, we more than recover anything that we've lost. In that example, in 2010, when things really were robust again, we were able to improve the OR by 360 basis points.

    如果你回顧過去的任何時期,當我們在任何特定年份或時期失去營運比率時,再回到 2009 年看看,我們失敗了——那一年的營運比率惡化了 270 個基點。一旦我們獲得了模型的槓桿作用,我們就可以挽回我們失去的一切。在該範例中,2010 年,當情況確實再次強勁時,我們能夠將 OR 提高 360 個基點。

  • So I feel like though from getting to the improvement cycle that it feels similar to 2017, where things are kind of on the edge of getting ready to start showing improvement again. And hopefully, we'll continue to see some growth as we go through the middle part of the year, some year-over-year growth and further sequential improvement and then things really start taking off and we'll go from there.

    因此,我覺得從進入改進週期開始,感覺與 2017 年類似,一切都處於準備再次開始顯示改進的邊緣。希望我們能在今年中期繼續看到一些增長,一些同比增長和進一步的連續改善,然後事情真正開始起飛,我們將從那裡開始。

  • But that's -- the good thing about our mid-quarter updates is we're going to give it to you as we go along. So you'll see the final April results we'll put in our 10-Q, the final May results from a revenue standpoint will publish. And you'll know it is developing versus me having to look through the crystal ball and predict when we're going to see the big inflection in revenue coming.

    但這是——我們的季度中期更新的好處是我們將在進展過程中將其提供給您。因此,您將看到我們將在 10-Q 中列出的 4 月份最終結果,從收入角度來看,5 月份的最終結果也將發布。你會知道它正在發展,而我必須透過水晶球來預測我們何時會看到收入的巨大變化。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Bruce Chan of Stifel.

    下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Bruce Chan。

  • Jizong Chan - Associate VP & Equity Research Analyst

    Jizong Chan - Associate VP & Equity Research Analyst

  • Jack, congrats and Adam, I didn't take you for a Swiftie, but maybe if I can borrow a line from her as well, just a question about the tortured pricing department here. We've heard from a couple of shippers that there's one last push going on for lower rates, especially some of those that may be negotiated in the first quarter of '23. And kind of felt like they missed a little bit of the ride there. Have you seen any of that? And specifically, have you seen any pull forward in bid activity early in the year? Any extra color on the pricing trends for this year, certainly helpful.

    傑克,恭喜你,亞當,我並沒有把你當成 Swiftie,但也許我也可以向她借一句台詞,只是問一下這裡備受折磨的定價部門的問題。我們從一些托運人那裡聽說,正在最後一次推動降低費率,尤其是一些可能在 23 年第一季協商的費率。有點感覺他們錯過了那裡的一些旅程。你見過這些嗎?具體來說,您是否看到今年年初的投標活動有所提前?關於今年定價趨勢的任何額外顏色肯定會有幫助。

  • Adam N. Satterfield - Executive VP of Finance, CFO & Assistant Secretary

    Adam N. Satterfield - Executive VP of Finance, CFO & Assistant Secretary

  • Yes. I've got a teenage daughter, so I can't help but hear certain types of music in the house. But on the pricing front, we've not really seen any material change in activity or bid activity. And for us, it's pretty consistent through the year in terms of how bids come in. And so pretty much just business as usual there. And again, like we said earlier, continuing to get the same types of increases on a core basis that we've seen in the past.

    是的。我有一個十幾歲的女兒,所以我忍不住在家裡聽到某些類型的音樂。但在定價方面,我們並沒有真正看到活動或出價活動發生任何重大變化。對我們來說,全年的投標方式都非常一致。再次,就像我們之前所說的那樣,繼續在核心基礎上獲得與我們過去看到的相同類型的增長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Ken Hoexter of Bank of America.

    下一個問題來自美國銀行的肯‧霍克斯特。

  • Unidentified Analyst

    Unidentified Analyst

  • This is Adam [Rusckowski] on for Ken Hoexter. The team and Jack, I hope the other side is treating you well. So why don't you get back to the excess capacity comment you noted about 30%. Could you remind us of the current capacity expansion plan maybe in the near term or over the next couple of years? And then average headcount was up slightly sequentially. How should we think about the headcount run rate for the balance of the year? And maybe could this serve as a potential cost lever?

    我是 Adam [Rusckowski],代表 Ken Hoexter。團隊和傑克,希望對方對你們好。那麼,為什麼不回到您提到的約 30% 的產能過剩評論呢?您能否提醒我們目前的產能擴張計劃(可能是在短期​​內或未來幾年內)?然後平均員工人數連續略有上升。我們該如何考慮今年剩餘時間的員工運作率?也許這可以作為潛在的成本槓桿?

  • Adam N. Satterfield - Executive VP of Finance, CFO & Assistant Secretary

    Adam N. Satterfield - Executive VP of Finance, CFO & Assistant Secretary

  • Yes. From a headcount standpoint, I mentioned that we've added about 500 people since September of last year. So I feel like we're in good shape there. The other thing is that we are running our truck driving schools. And so some of the people that we pulled from a platform position and put them into a truck in the fall to respond to that sequential acceleration in business, we've been able to backfill those platforms roles with the hiring, but also have trained more drivers to have those employees and drivers and ready reserve, if you will, to respond to an increase in demand if it continues to accelerate from here. So it's pretty much in balance right now with the change in full-time employees with shipments.

    是的。從員工人數的角度來看,我提到自去年 9 月以來我們已經增加了大約 500 人。所以我覺得我們在那裡狀況良好。另一件事是我們正在經營卡車駕駛學校。因此,我們在秋季從平台職位上抽調了一些人,並將他們放入卡車中,以應對業務的連續加速,我們已經能夠通過招聘來填補這些平台角色,但也培訓了更多如果您願意的話,請讓這些員工和司機做好準備,以應對需求的成長(如果需求繼續從這裡加速)。因此,目前與全職員工和出貨量的變化基本上保持平衡。

  • And that's something that generally is balanced over the long term. But I feel like we try to get a little bit ahead of it, but we're cautiously optimistic about and has been for the last quarter. So that was why we went ahead and tried to invest there in that employee growth, but we'll continue to watch and we're a little bit ahead of it.

    從長遠來看,這通常是平衡的。但我覺得我們試著領先一點,但我們對上個季度持謹慎樂觀態度。這就是為什麼我們繼續努力投資員工成長,但我們將繼續觀察,我們已經領先了一點。

  • We've got different levers that we can pull if volumes are accelerating to where you don't have to hire on a one-for-one basis with growth. But we're in a good spot. May be kind of flattish from here. But depending on we see further acceleration coming through, say, now to anticipate through September, then that might require some further hiring. But no real immediate need at this point to do anything in a material way. I feel like our employee count is pretty well balanced with the volumes that we're seeing. Maybe Marty will address the service center capacity.

    如果銷售加速成長,您不必在成長的過程中進行一對一的招聘,我們可以使用不同的槓桿。但我們處於有利位置。從這裡開始可能有點平坦。但根據我們看到的進一步加速情況,例如現在預計到 9 月份,那麼可能需要進一步招募。但目前並沒有真正迫切需要以物質方式做任何事。我覺得我們的員工數量與我們所看到的數量非常平衡。也許馬蒂會解決服務中心的容量問題。

  • Kevin M. Freeman - President & CEO

    Kevin M. Freeman - President & CEO

  • Yes. From a capacity standpoint, we always try to maintain at least 25%. And with the 30% that we have now, some of that comes from what we started as a -- enlarging some of our docs that we had experienced some tight door pressure in which we keep a door pressure report going on a monthly basis. But some of those things are finishing up from expansions in 2022, that's the reason for the 30%.

    是的。從容量的角度來看,我們始終努力保持至少 25%。我們現在擁有的 30% 的數據,其中一些來自我們最初的工作——擴大我們的一些文檔,我們經歷了一些嚴格的門壓力,其中我們每月保留一份門壓力報告。但其中一些事情將在 2022 年完成擴張,這就是 30% 的原因。

  • But we always try to keep excess capacity because we're confident this economy is going to turn for us and if not this year, beginning in next year. So there's nothing worse than getting an influx and promises from customers for additional business and not having enough capacity to handle it. So that's why we try to keep that 25% to 30% at all times.

    但我們總是努力維持過剩產能,因為我們相信經濟將會好轉,即使不是今年,也會從明年開始。因此,沒有什麼比客戶湧入並承諾提供額外業務而沒有足夠的能力來處理更糟糕的了。這就是為什麼我們始終努力保持 25% 到 30% 的比例。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Stephanie Moore of Jefferies.

    下一個問題來自傑富瑞 (Jefferies) 的史蒂芬妮摩爾 (Stephanie Moore)。

  • Joseph Lawrence Hafling - Equity Associate

    Joseph Lawrence Hafling - Equity Associate

  • This is Joe Hafling on for Stephanie. I hate to ask again on the capacity question, but you've mentioned a couple of times how you think that the strategy of the past would continue to work and the environment itself will become tight. But with sort of all the rest of the national players essentially copying the Old Dominion playbook and trying to keep a 20% to 30% excess capacity figure themselves, how are you thinking about keeping incremental capacity or adding incremental capacity?

    這是史蒂芬妮的喬·哈夫林。我不想再問容量問題,但您已經多次提到您認為過去的策略將繼續發揮作用,並且環境本身將變得緊張。但是,由於所有其他國家參與者基本上都在複製 Old Dominion 的劇本,並試圖自行保持 20% 到 30% 的過剩產能數字,您如何考慮保持增量產能或增加增量產能?

  • And do you think that the industry overall today with everybody trying to be like Old Dominion, does that lead to the industry just having excess capacity more than there ever was in the prior decade?

    您是否認為當今整個行業每個人都試圖效仿舊自治領,這是否會導致該行業的產能過剩程度比過去十年還要嚴重?

  • Adam N. Satterfield - Executive VP of Finance, CFO & Assistant Secretary

    Adam N. Satterfield - Executive VP of Finance, CFO & Assistant Secretary

  • Yes. I think that at the end of the day, capacity is not what wins business. It allows you to achieve market share initiatives. So having capacity doesn't necessarily mean that anyone is going to be able to grow, it just gives the ability to grow. Service is ultimately what wins share and relationships in this business as well.

    是的。我認為歸根究底,能力並不是贏得業務的因素。它使您能夠實現市場份額計劃。因此,擁有能力並不一定意味著任何人都能成長,它只是賦予了成長的能力。服務最終也是贏得該行業份額和關係的因素。

  • And I think that we've been able to strengthen our customer relationships over time, our sales and our pricing teams, the relationships that they formed with our customers, the consistency of our business practices, the consistency of our yield management practices as well. All that goes into forming strong bonds between us and our customers.

    我認為,隨著時間的推移,我們已經能夠加強我們的客戶關係、我們的銷售和定價團隊、他們與客戶建立的關係、我們業務實踐的一致性、我們收益管理實踐的一致性。所有這些都有助於在我們和客戶之間建立牢固的聯繫。

  • And so we continue to look at ways that we can add further value to our customers' supply chains. And we look for ways that we can continue to execute on a continuous improvement process, which is a central element of our foundation for success. So we've got a better service product than anyone else in our industry. We're proud that we've won the Mastio Quality Award for 14 years in a row and the service gap between us and the others actually got wider in last year's analysis.

    因此,我們繼續尋找為客戶的供應鏈增加更多價值的方法。我們尋找能夠繼續執行持續改善流程的方法,這是我們成功基礎的核心要素。因此,我們擁有比業內其他任何公司更好的服務產品。我們很自豪能夠連續 14 年榮獲 Mastio 品質獎,而且根據去年的分析,我們與其他公司之間的服務差距實際上更大了。

  • So that's something that we remain focused on and keep trying to do things that our customers are asking from us and to be able to deliver that superior service at a fair price to our customers as well. So the competition that is trying to emulate us, I guess that's one to say about imitation being the most sincere form of flattery.

    因此,這是我們繼續關注的事情,並不斷努力做客戶要求我們做的事情,並能夠以公平的價格向我們的客戶提供優質的服務。因此,試圖模仿我們的競爭,我想這就是說模仿是最真誠的奉承。

  • We'll continue to watch and see what they're doing, but it's something that people have been trying to emulate for years, and we're not sitting still to let someone try to come up and catch us. We're working hard every day to get better to make sure that, that service gap and the overall value gap that we add continues to get wider.

    我們將繼續觀察他們在做什麼,但這是人們多年來一直試圖效仿的事情,我們不會坐以待斃,讓有人試圖上來抓住我們。我們每天都在努力工作,以確保服務差距和我們增加的整體價值差距繼續擴大。

  • Joseph Lawrence Hafling - Equity Associate

    Joseph Lawrence Hafling - Equity Associate

  • Great. And then maybe just on that point, have you heard any maybe anecdotes from customers lately on any service issues? Or is the environment just still too weak right now, so that's really become an issue?

    偉大的。然後也許就這一點而言,您最近是否從客戶那裡聽說過有關任何服務問題的軼事?還是現在環境還太弱,所以這真的成為一個問題?

  • Adam N. Satterfield - Executive VP of Finance, CFO & Assistant Secretary

    Adam N. Satterfield - Executive VP of Finance, CFO & Assistant Secretary

  • I haven't heard anything out of the ordinary, things that we wouldn't normally hear. But the reporting -- we've had some improvement in our -- the national account reporting that we get with wins and losses. And service issues are starting to increase, I would just say, generally. We're starting to see those start to pick up. So just something that's kind of on the press pace of one other item that's kind of changing in our favor.

    我沒有聽到任何不尋常的事情,我們通常不會聽到的事情。但是,我們在國民帳戶報告方面取得了一些進步,我們得到了關於勝利和失敗的報告。我只想說,總體而言,服務問題開始增加。我們開始看到這些開始回升。因此,這與另一項新聞的報道速度有關,這對我們有利。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Jason Seidl of TD Cowen.

    下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Jason Seidl。

  • Jason H. Seidl - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Jason H. Seidl - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • A couple of quick questions here. Number one, when we're thinking about sort of either the tonnage or market share, it seems that pre-pandemic, it was more of a just-in-time supply chain, and that shifted a little bit to just in case now. It seems like we're probably moving back a little bit more towards the JIT. Is this something that just sort of favors your operational model and service standards? And if it does, should we expect you to sort of get back to sort of the old ways of Old Dominion of sort of being the market share leader?

    這裡有幾個簡單的問題。第一,當我們考慮噸位或市場份額時,似乎在大流行前,它更像是一個及時供應鏈,現在有點轉變為以防萬一。看來我們可能會更傾向 JIT。這是否有利於您的營運模式和服務標準?如果確實如此,我們是否應該期望您回到舊統治的舊方式,成為市場份額的領導者?

  • Adam N. Satterfield - Executive VP of Finance, CFO & Assistant Secretary

    Adam N. Satterfield - Executive VP of Finance, CFO & Assistant Secretary

  • Yes, I think so, Jason, I agree with you. And I felt like post-pandemic, we were going to stay in more of an adjusting case type of inventory management style. But once things get tight and you start managing cost, you have to look at all elements and managing tighter inventory is one way for shippers to improve their overall bottom line.

    是的,我想是的,傑森,我同意你的觀點。我覺得在大流行後,我們將更多地停留在庫存管理風格的調整案例類型上。但是,一旦情況變得緊張並且您開始管理成本,您就必須考慮所有因素,而管理更緊張的庫存是托運人提高整體利潤的一種方法。

  • And so we've seen that trend kind of work its way back to the JIT. And we've had anecdotal feedback from customers that have come in and visited us as well that may have had elevated inventory levels that they have now worked through. So hopefully, that will be a good thing for us.

    因此,我們已經看到這種趨勢又回到了 JIT。我們也收到了來自前來拜訪我們的客戶的軼事回饋,他們現在已經解決了庫存水準可能升高的問題。希望這對我們來說是件好事。

  • And it generally is, obviously, if you're managing tighter inventory, you've got to rely on a shipper that can deliver on time and without damage. If you don't have excess inventory sitting around, you can't afford to have a shipment come in that's completely damaged and you've got to deal with a return and reorder type of situation.

    顯然,如果您管理的庫存比較緊張,那麼通常情況下,您必須依賴能夠按時交貨且無損的托運人。如果您沒有多餘的庫存,您將無法承受完全損壞的貨物,並且您必須處理退貨和重新訂購類型的情況。

  • And so that has supported our ability to win market share over time. It's something that we think will continue to allow us to win market share as we go forward and it works both with our industrial and our retail customers. But on the retail side, with the on-demand and in full programs that many retailers have put in place to manage their inventory, that's a tremendous opportunity for continued growth in our business as well.

    因此,這支持了我們隨著時間的推移贏得市場份額的能力。我們認為,隨著我們的前進,這將繼續讓我們贏得市場份額,並且它適用於我們的工業和零售客戶。但在零售方面,許多零售商已經制定了按需和完整的計劃來管理庫存,這也是我們業務持續成長的巨大機會。

  • And we're able to meet the expectations of those retailers and take the vendor-controlled freight and make sure that we hit those delivery windows, and we're doing at 99% of the time and without any type of damage. So we're minimizing in some cases, millions of dollars of chargebacks for retail-related customers that are delivering into those big box retailers with those on-time and full programs in place.

    我們能夠滿足這些零售商的期望,接受供應商控制的貨運,並確保我們按時交貨,而且我們 99% 的時間都做到了,沒有任何類型的損壞。因此,在某些情況下,我們正在最大限度地減少零售相關客戶數百萬美元的退款,這些客戶透過準時且完整的計劃向大型零售商發貨。

  • So a lot of good opportunity when we look down the long-term curve, and it's why we're so confident in our ability to keep winning market share into the future. I feel like we continue to have a long runway for growth. And that's what dictates and determines our capital expenditure program. We look at where we see growth coming from, a lot of that is based on customer conversations that we're having for how their business levels are going to be changing into the future as well and that dictates how we continue to expand out our network.

    因此,當我們向下看長期曲線時,會有很多好機會,這就是為什麼我們對自己在未來繼續贏得市場份額的能力充滿信心。我覺得我們的成長還有很長的路要走。這就是決定我們資本支出計畫的因素。我們著眼於成長來自何處,其中很大一部分是基於我們與客戶的對話,了解他們的業務水平未來將如何變化,這決定了我們如何繼續擴展我們的網路。

  • So as long as we have line of sight into the next 5 years of growth, and that's generally what we're kind of pre-investing for, we will continue to invest the money into our real estate program and further expand the service center network. But it's all grounded on a line of sight in the market share opportunities. It's not just a build it and hope they come.

    因此,只要我們能夠預見未來 5 年的成長,而這通常就是我們預先投資的目的,我們將繼續將資金投入到我們的房地產項目中,並進一步擴大服務中心網絡。但這一切都基於對市場佔有率機會的關注。這不僅僅是建造它並希望他們來。

  • Jason H. Seidl - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Jason H. Seidl - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Right. That makes sense. And if I can just follow up with a clarification something. You talked about your growth rates month-to-date in April. But did I miss -- did you guys give how that compares to historical averages?

    正確的。這就說得通了。如果我可以跟進澄清一些事情。您談到了四月份迄今為止的成長率。但我是否錯過了——你們是否給了與歷史平均值的比較?

  • Adam N. Satterfield - Executive VP of Finance, CFO & Assistant Secretary

    Adam N. Satterfield - Executive VP of Finance, CFO & Assistant Secretary

  • In terms on a sequential standpoint or...

    從順序的角度來看或......

  • Jason H. Seidl - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Jason H. Seidl - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Yes, because I think you mentioned the sequential gain in tonnage in April, but I don't know if I missed the historical average comp.

    是的,因為我認為您提到了四月份噸位的連續增長,但我不知道我是否錯過了歷史平均比較。

  • Adam N. Satterfield - Executive VP of Finance, CFO & Assistant Secretary

    Adam N. Satterfield - Executive VP of Finance, CFO & Assistant Secretary

  • Yes. So far, I mean, obviously, we're not completely done, but we're somewhere around 48,000 shipments per day. So just up slightly from where we were in March. And we'll see hopefully, that will increase a little bit that average count, if you will. But when we look at what normal seasonality, the 10-year average is a 0.4% increase from March into April for shipments.

    是的。到目前為止,我的意思是,顯然我們還沒有完全完成,但我們每天的發貨量約為 48,000 件。因此,僅比三月份的水平略有上升。如果你願意的話,我們希望看到,這將增加一點平均數。但當我們觀察正常的季節性時,10 年平均值為 3 月至 4 月出貨量增加 0.4%。

  • But recall that we had a Good Friday is in there in March this year. So in years where that is the case, it would be a 2% increase from March to April. So right now, trending lower than that 2% growth, but when you look back at kind of what we were able to achieve in February and March, again, consistent growth.

    但請記住,今年三月我們在那裡度過了耶穌受難日。因此,在這種情況下,從 3 月到 4 月將增加 2%。因此,目前的趨勢低於 2% 的成長,但當你回顧我們在 2 月和 3 月所取得的成就時,再次看到持續的成長。

  • And on the tonnage side, we saw just call it 2% sequential growth from January to February and then about 2.5% from February to March, demonstrating a little bit of pickup in weight per shipment there that kind of help that metric. And that metric was essentially in alignment with the 10-year average or rather the adjusted average that reflects Good Friday being in March.

    在噸位方面,我們看到一月至二月環比增長 2%,二月至三月增長約 2.5%,這表明每批貨物的重量有所增加,這對這一指標有所幫助。該指標基本上與 10 年平均值一致,或更確切地說是反映耶穌受難日 3 月的調整後平均值。

  • So it's good to see that we're finally seeing month-over-month improvement there versus I've mentioned before from April of '22 through December, we were kind of in a declining environment and then just flat from December at 47,000 shipments per day, December '22, all the way to August when we had the big industry event and that acceleration that we saw pretty much a step function change that happened on an immediate basis.

    因此,很高興看到我們終於看到了逐月改善,而我之前提到過,從22 年4 月到12 月,我們處於下降的環境中,然後從12 月開始持平,出貨量為47,000 件。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Brian Ossenbeck of JPMorgan.

    下一個問題來自摩根大通的布萊恩·奧森貝克。

  • Brian Patrick Ossenbeck - Senior Equity Analyst

    Brian Patrick Ossenbeck - Senior Equity Analyst

  • So Adam, I just wanted to ask a little bit more about how you view the truckload market here. I know in the past, you said you thought some other freight moved over. I think you mentioned it earlier. But how much of that went over I guess, with the disruption with Yellow, do you still think that can come back to LTL and tighten it up?

    亞當,我只是想多問一些關於您如何看待這裡的卡車市場的問題。我知道過去你說你以為有其他貨物搬過來了。我想你之前有提到過。但我猜,隨著 Yellow 的中斷,你是否仍然認為可以回到 LTL 並收緊它?

  • So is that kind of above and beyond what you normally see from a cyclical perspective? And maybe on a related topic, are you seeing anything interesting in terms of April shipping weight per shipment? Is that sort of a leading indicator that you're watching to see for early signs of stabilization improvement?

    那麼,這是否超出了您通常從週期性角度看到的情況?也許在一個相關的主題上,您是否在四月份每批貨物的運輸重量方面看到了任何有趣的事情?您正在關注這種領先指標,以發現穩定改善的早期跡象嗎?

  • Kevin M. Freeman - President & CEO

    Kevin M. Freeman - President & CEO

  • Yes, this is Marty. I agree with Adam that some of this Yellow freight did move over to full truckload carriers in the form of stop-offs where they take 3 or 4 shipments along with a 75% load and charge a couple of hundred bucks to do stock offs. They don't really like to do that nor do their drivers like to do it, but I do believe this moved over there because of the slowness in the truckload market this year and last year.

    是的,這是馬蒂。我同意 Adam 的觀點,即部分黃色貨物確實以中途停靠的形式轉移到整車承運商,他們在 75% 的負載下分裝 3 或 4 批貨物,並收取幾百美元的庫存費用。他們真的不喜歡這樣做,他們的司機也不喜歡這樣做,但我確實相信,由於今年和去年卡車市場的緩慢發展,這種情況已經轉移到那裡。

  • And I also agree that this will move back to LTL carriers once the truckload market picks back up. So -- and I suspect that will happen at the same time the LTL market starts to flourish again. So that will come straight back to the LTL market.

    我也同意,一旦卡車裝載市場回升,這將重新回到零擔運輸公司。因此,我懷疑這將在零擔市場再次開始繁榮的同時發生。因此,這將直接回到零擔市場。

  • Brian Patrick Ossenbeck - Senior Equity Analyst

    Brian Patrick Ossenbeck - Senior Equity Analyst

  • Any thoughts on weight per shipment and how that's trending and how we should expect that throughout the rest of the year?

    關於每批貨物的重量以及其趨勢如何以及我們在今年剩餘時間裡應該如何預期有什麼想法嗎?

  • Adam N. Satterfield - Executive VP of Finance, CFO & Assistant Secretary

    Adam N. Satterfield - Executive VP of Finance, CFO & Assistant Secretary

  • Yes. We hope to see it continue to increase. That's typically an indicator of an improving economy as well. Like I mentioned, an increase from February to March, it's increased a little bit from March thus far into April as well. So that's something that we're probably on the low end of the scale in terms of how that metric changes.

    是的。我們希望看到它繼續增加。這通常也是經濟改善的指標。就像我提到的,從二月到三月的成長,從三月至今到四月也略有增加。因此,就該指標的變化而言,我們可能處於規模的低端。

  • It got a little skewed, if you will, with post Yellow and some of the incremental freight that we saw there. But historically speaking, in a strong demand environment, we've been closer to 1,600 pounds as an overall average. We're still down around 1,515 pounds and so we definitely have got some room to grow there.

    如果你願意的話,它有點扭曲,因為黃色郵報和我們在那裡看到的一些增量貨運。但從歷史上看,在強勁的需求環境下,我們的整體平均產量已接近 1,600 磅。我們仍然減重約 1,515 磅,因此我們肯定還有一些成長空間。

  • And that, too, creates and that's part of the leverage that you get from an operating ratio standpoint is weight continues to increase, you're getting more revenue per shipment, and that will help overall offset and kind of close that gap that we've seen with cost per shipment over the past years. The call relatively speaking, is -- should be very similar, but you're just getting more weight and more revenue per load, if you will.

    這也創造了,從營運比率的角度來看,這是你獲得的槓桿的一部分,重量持續增加,你每次發貨都會獲得更多的收入,這將有助於整體抵消並縮小我們的差距。相對而言,這個呼叫應該非常相似,但是如果您願意的話,您只會獲得更多的重量和每次負載的更多收入。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Tom Wadewitz of UBS.

    下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的湯姆·瓦德維茨。

  • Thomas Richard Wadewitz - MD and Senior Analyst

    Thomas Richard Wadewitz - MD and Senior Analyst

  • I wanted to -- it seems to me like the -- I guess, the freight environment improvement is a key catalyst for what you're going to see on the tonnage side and give you a chance to benefit from the capacity and service you can offer. What have you seen in terms of industrial customers versus the kind of retail and consumer customers where there's any kind of difference in behavior or trend or optimism.

    我想——在我看來——我想,貨運環境的改善是你將在噸位方面看到的一個關鍵催化劑,並讓你有機會從你所能提供的運力和服務中受益。您在工業客戶與零售和消費客戶方面看到了什麼,在行為、趨勢或樂觀方面有任何差異。

  • And I guess related maybe more to the retail side. It's been surprising that container imports have been pretty strong for a number of months. And yet the domestic freight environment seems like it's still pretty soft. So I don't know if you have any thoughts on what might be going on there if there's some inventory. But I guess any color on differences in customer segments or maybe why the imports aren't translating to domestic activity so much.

    我想可能更多與零售方面有關。令人驚訝的是,貨櫃進口幾個月來一直相當強勁。然而國內貨運環境似乎仍然相當疲軟。所以我不知道你是否對如果有庫存的話會發生什麼有什麼想法。但我猜想這可能與客戶群的差異有關,或者可能是為什麼進口沒有那麼多地轉化為國內活動。

  • Adam N. Satterfield - Executive VP of Finance, CFO & Assistant Secretary

    Adam N. Satterfield - Executive VP of Finance, CFO & Assistant Secretary

  • Yes. Overall, the retail continued to reflect -- or the industrial rather reflect the weakness that we've seen in the industrial economy. And in the first quarter, we had 1% revenue growth, but it was actually a slight decrease when you look at just our industrial-related accounts group together. So a little bit better performance on the retail side to offset that in the first quarter.

    是的。總體而言,零售業繼續反映——或者工業反映了我們在工業經濟中看到的疲軟。第一季度,我們的營收成長了 1%,但如果你把我們的工業相關客戶群放在一起來看,實際上略有下降。因此,零售方面的表現稍好一些,抵消了第一季的影響。

  • But again, hopefully, that's something now that we've seen ISM trend back above 50%, it had been below 50% for 16 months. I mean just this long, incredibly slow environment that we've been slugging through. But generally speaking, that indicates that improvement in that industrial environment, if we can stay above 50%, it should be coming, and that could be sort of in that May time frame.

    但我們再次希望,現在我們已經看到 ISM 趨勢回到 50% 以上,16 個月來一直低於 50%。我的意思是我們一直在經歷這麼漫長、極度緩慢的環境。但總的來說,這表明工業環境的改善,如果我們能保持在 50% 以上,應該會到來,而且可能會在 5 月的時間範圍內實現。

  • So it's something that we'll continue to watch. But the retail continues to perform. We've also seen an improvement in the business that's managed by third-party logistics companies. And that's kind of in the early stages as well, but seeing some improvement there. I think is a good sign. Oftentimes, the 3PLs that have the systems, they're able to identify some of those top-off shipments that Marty was referencing earlier by being able to look through their entire inventory of capacity versus shipments.

    所以這是我們將繼續關注的事情。但零售業持續表現出色。我們也看到第三方物流公司管理的業務有所改善。這也處於早期階段,但已經看到了一些改進。我認為這是一個好兆頭。通常,擁有該系統的 3PL 能夠透過查看其容量與發貨量的整個庫存來識別 Marty 之前提到的一些補貨發貨。

  • And so if we're starting to see some growth there again with those and maybe some of that type of truck versus LTL swing might start reversing course. But again, I think it's just a lot of things are kind of in the early stages that we got to keep watch on and I don't want to get overly caught up in and -- but keep our fingers on the pulse, if you will, and continue to watch the trends and see if it manifests into increased LTL demand overall for which I think that we will more than be able to win our share.

    因此,如果我們開始再次看到這些增長,也許某些類型的卡車與零擔運輸的搖擺可能會開始逆轉。但同樣,我認為很多事情都處於早期階段,我們必須密切關注,我不想過度陷入困境——但請密切關注脈搏,如果你將會,並繼續觀察趨勢,看看它是否會體現在整體零擔需求在的增加上,我認為我們將有能力贏得我們的份額。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Scott Group of Wolfe Research.

    下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究的斯科特小組。

  • Scott H. Group - MD & Senior Analyst

    Scott H. Group - MD & Senior Analyst

  • So Adam, I know we're at the hour, there have been a lot of questions on price already, but -- so some of this may be repetitive. But like obviously, this these LTL stocks are getting hit pretty hard today, but the April yield numbers, they are what they are. But I just want to make sure, are you -- it doesn't feel like it, but are you in any way communicating any kind of change in the underlying pricing environment here, the competitive dynamic? I know you don't share pricing renewals every quarter like some of the other LTLs but maybe this quarter could be helpful. Are they slowing? Is it -- what's changing in your mind?

    亞當,我知道現在已經有很多關於價格的問題了,但是——所以其中一些可能是重複的。但顯然,這些 LTL 股票今天受到了相當嚴重的打擊,但 4 月的殖利率數據就是如此。但我只是想確定一下,你是不是——感覺不是這樣,但你是否以任何方式傳達了這裡潛在定價環境、競爭動態的任何變化?我知道你們不會像其他零擔運輸那樣每季都會分享定價更新,但也許這個季度會有所幫助。他們在放慢速度嗎?你的想法發生了什麼變化嗎?

  • Adam N. Satterfield - Executive VP of Finance, CFO & Assistant Secretary

    Adam N. Satterfield - Executive VP of Finance, CFO & Assistant Secretary

  • Yes. And again, to repeat, nothing is changing with respect to the core contract increases that we're achieving and that we're targeting. We continue to target cost plus increases, and we're getting those. It's just a little bit different in the mix of freight that we're seeing. We've seen a little bit of a decrease in length of haul.

    是的。再次重申,我們正在實現的核心合約成長和我們的目標沒有任何變化。我們繼續以增加成本加成為目標,並且我們正在實現這些目標。我們所看到的貨運組合略有不同。我們發現運輸距離縮短。

  • Some change in increase in weight per shipment, like I mentioned, all those factors kind of lead to a lower revenue per hundredweight. So just looking at things on a pure per hundredweight basis, it's gone from, just call it, 6.5% growth in the first quarter to 4.5% excluding fuel so far in April.

    正如我所提到的,每批貨物重量增加的一些變化,所有這些因素都會導致每英擔收入下降。因此,僅從純每英擔重量的角度來看,四月到目前為止,第一季的成長率為 6.5%,不包括燃料,成長率為 4.5%。

  • But we've said before, hundredweight can move around quickly, and that's why internally, we focus more on revenue per shipment than anything. That's what we pick up every day, our shipments, and that's what we've got to figure out what's the cost to pick up a shipment. What's the cost of line haul a shipment, cross-docket. Everything that we do is driven on a per shipment basis.

    但我們之前說過,英擔可以快速移動,這就是為什麼在內部,我們更關注每批貨物的收入而不是其他任何事情。這就是我們每天收取的貨物,這就是我們必須計算出收取貨物的成本是多少。長途運輸、交叉配送的費用是多少?我們所做的一切都是以每次發貨為基礎的。

  • And I mean I think we can get back to having a positive spread of revenue per shipment versus our cost per shipment performance. So that will continue to be the initiative. I don't see anything changing with respect to the pricing environment and nothing changing that we've seen as we've gone through renewals and bids and so forth with respect to the other carriers in the industry.

    我的意思是,我認為我們可以恢復每次發貨收入與每次發貨成本的正向差距。因此,這將繼續成為這項舉措。我認為定價環境沒有任何變化,我們在與業內其他運營商進行續訂和投標等方面也沒有看到任何變化。

  • And obviously, we'll see with their reports when they come out. But we've not seen anything change in that regard. It's just some mix changes that are impacting our revenue per hundredweight metrics thus far into April.

    顯然,當他們的報告出來時,我們會看到。但我們在這方面沒有看到任何變化。到目前為止,只是一些組合變化影響了我們的每英擔收入指標。

  • Scott H. Group - MD & Senior Analyst

    Scott H. Group - MD & Senior Analyst

  • But just so I'm clear, I don't think you guys talked about revenue per shipment accelerating with this mix shift or maybe it is, I just didn't hear that.

    但我要澄清的是,我認為你們沒有談論過這種混合轉變帶來的每次發貨收入的加速,或者也許是這樣,我只是沒有聽到。

  • Adam N. Satterfield - Executive VP of Finance, CFO & Assistant Secretary

    Adam N. Satterfield - Executive VP of Finance, CFO & Assistant Secretary

  • No, but it's staying consistent with where we were. The rev per shipment performance in April thus far is pretty consistent with what we just had in the first quarter. We were up 3.8% revenue per shipment in the first quarter, excluding the fuel surcharge.

    不,但它與我們之前的情況保持一致。迄今為止,四月份的每批出貨量表現與我們第一季的情況非常一致。第一季我們每批貨物的收入成長了 3.8%(不包括燃油附加費)。

  • Scott H. Group - MD & Senior Analyst

    Scott H. Group - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Okay. And then just one more question. You talked about like just the power of leverage. Now if I take what you're saying about Q2, you're sort of saying mid-single-digit plus sort of top line growth and flattish OR, right? So historically, we get mid-single-digit top line, and we see real OR improvement. How come -- maybe it's just a timing issue, how come you're not suggesting we see that the power of that leverage right away in Q2?

    好的。然後還有一個問題。您談到了槓桿的力量。現在,如果我接受您關於第二季度的說法,您是在說中個位數加上某種頂線增長和持平的 OR,對嗎?因此,從歷史上看,我們的營收達到了中個位數,並且我們看到了真正的 OR 改善。為什麼——也許這只是一個時機問題,為什麼不建議我們在第二季度立即看到這種槓桿的力量?

  • Adam N. Satterfield - Executive VP of Finance, CFO & Assistant Secretary

    Adam N. Satterfield - Executive VP of Finance, CFO & Assistant Secretary

  • Well, I think that's something that obviously depending on how much volume growth we actually see in the quarter or not sequentially. We've invested significantly in many factors that we detailed earlier that create short-term costs. So if we can see some further improvement and if weight and shipments really accelerate kind of from here forward, and obviously, there's a lot of leverage that would therefore come from that.

    嗯,我認為這顯然取決於我們在本季實際看到的銷售成長量或不是連續成長的量。我們在先前詳細介紹的許多造成短期成本的因素上進行了大量投資。因此,如果我們能看到一些進一步的改善,如果重量和出貨量真的從現在開始加速,顯然,這將帶來很大的槓桿作用。

  • But that's something that if we're -- if we continue to grow revenue, it's kind of a 6% year-over-year rate like we saw in April, then we tried to give a factor of, okay, maybe we'll only see 150 basis points of sequential improvement, which would still be a year-over-year improvement where we were in the second quarter last year.

    但如果我們繼續增加收入,就像我們在 4 月看到的那樣,同比增長率為 6%,那麼我們會嘗試給出一個因素,好吧,也許我們會只看到150 個基點的環比改善,這仍然是我們去年第二季的年比改善。

  • But I think it's just going to move on a sliding scale, if you will, based on how much revenue comes in. And typically, like I mentioned, the revenue growth is between 8.5% and 9% to 8.7% from the first quarter to the second quarter. And we're just not there yet. And hopefully, we see further sequential improvement in May and June. And obviously, we give those -- we'll give the update for May, with our mid-quarter update as we go along.

    但我認為,如果你願意的話,它只會根據收入的多少而滑動。間。但我們還沒有做到這一點。希望我們能在五月和六月看到進一步的連續改善。顯然,我們會提供這些 - 我們將提供五月份的更新,以及我們正在進行的季度中期更新。

  • But the improvement that we see in the operating ratio is typically 350 to 400 basis points of improvement. A lot of that improvement comes by way of the direct costs. It's mainly the salaries, wages and benefits and are op supplies and expenses, and that's coming from the improvement in operating density and taking advantage of all that incremental freight that's moving through the system.

    但我們看到的開工率改善通常為 350 至 400 個基點。其中很大一部分改進來自直接成本。主要是工資、工資和福利,以及營運供應和費用,這來自營運密度的提高和利用透過系統移動的所有增量貨運。

  • So if all those things do develop, then obviously, we can produce further improvement in those direct costs. And like I mentioned earlier, from a headcount standpoint, I feel good about where we are. So it's not like we've got to scale up even more in terms of our hiring practices. But we'll probably be working more hours and doing things like that with the existing workforce. So there's opportunity to scale there. But like any other period, it's just going to be top line dependent for how much growth do we see and how much of that incremental growth will be able to put to the bottom line.

    因此,如果所有這些事情確實得到發展,那麼顯然,我們可以進一步改善這些直接成本。正如我之前提到的,從員工人數的角度來看,我對我們的現狀感到滿意。因此,我們不必進一步擴大招募規模。但我們可能會增加工作時間,並與現有員工一起做類似的事情。因此,這裡有擴大規模的機會。但與任何其他時期一樣,這將取決於我們看到的成長程度以及增量成長的多少將能夠轉化為利潤。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Jeff Kauffman of Vertical Research Partners.

    下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Jeff Kauffman。

  • Jeffrey Asher Kauffman - Partner

    Jeffrey Asher Kauffman - Partner

  • And Jack, congratulations, really looking forward to working with you in this role. A lot's been asked, so I just want to take a step back. It's been a weird couple of years, right? We had COVID, big up, big down, inflation. We've had inventory destocking. We've had the Yellow closure. We've had a lot of growth in private fleets. All of this, I think, makes it difficult to predict what's going to happen with business.

    傑克,恭喜你,非常期待與你合作扮演這個角色。問了很多,所以我只想退後一步。這兩年過得很奇怪,對吧?我們經歷了新冠疫情、大漲、大跌、通貨膨脹。我們已經去庫存了。我們已經關閉了黃色。我們的私人車隊有了很大的成長。我認為,所有這些都使得預測商業將發生什麼變得困難。

  • But eventually, we do anniversary all these impacts and things start to resemble what might be considered a more normal operating environment. When do you think we get back to that? And where is your vision most foggy relative to what it would be without these oddities that have occurred?

    但最終,我們慶祝了所有這些影響,事情開始類似於可能被認為更正常的操作環境。你認為我們什麼時候才能回到這個話題?與沒有發生這些奇怪的事情相比,你的視野在哪裡最模糊?

  • Adam N. Satterfield - Executive VP of Finance, CFO & Assistant Secretary

    Adam N. Satterfield - Executive VP of Finance, CFO & Assistant Secretary

  • Yes. I don't have my Carnac the Magnificent happier handy to be able to predict on when things are going to change, but that's probably the most buzziest thing is when will the inflection point happen. We -- obviously, it's called a cycle for a reason, and we will get back into a robust demand environment at some point. And when we do, we will be able to take advantage of that.

    是的。我沒有我的卡納克大帝更高興能夠預測事情何時會發生變化,但這可能是最熱鬧的事情是拐點何時會發生。顯然,這被稱為週期是有原因的,我們將在某個時候回到強勁的需求環境。當我們這樣做時,我們將能夠利用這一點。

  • And we've built the company up. We've been growing our company for years and continue to believe that we've got a lot of growth opportunity as we look out into the future. So obviously, we put on a lot of growth. We're able to grow our revenues, $1 billion in each of 2021 and 2022 and then ran into the slowdown in the economy.

    我們已經建立了公司。多年來我們一直在發展我們的公司,並繼續相信,展望未來,我們擁有大量的成長機會。顯然,我們取得了很大的成長。我們能夠增加收入,2021 年和 2022 年每年增加 10 億美元,然後遇到經濟放緩。

  • So we've been making our way through that very well, very proud of the operating ratio that we were able to produce last year in a challenging environment. And we're still in an environment that we're not out of the woods yet, if you will. We still had in the first quarter, a 3% reduction in tons per day and essentially had a flat operating ratio, but we're able to produce positive earnings per share as well.

    因此,我們一直在順利渡過難關,對我們去年在充滿挑戰的環境中實現的營運率感到非常自豪。如果你願意的話,我們仍然處於一個尚未走出困境的環境。第一季我們的日產量仍減少了 3%,營運比率基本上持平,但我們也能夠產生正的每股盈餘。

  • So I feel good about the base level of operations where we are today and being able to build on what we've established. So there's a long runway for growth out there when it comes to a top line standpoint that we believe for our business. And we've got further room to improve our operating ratio as well. And so that will allow us to achieve our vision of achieving long-term profitable growth that drives an increase in shareholder value.

    因此,我對我們今天的基本營運水準感到滿意,並且能夠在我們已經建立的基礎上再接再厲。因此,就我們對業務的最高觀點而言,成長還有很長的路要走。我們的營運率還有進一步提高的空間。因此,這將使我們能夠實現長期獲利成長的願景,從而推動股東價值的增加。

  • So all those same elements are in place. There may be some different logos that have been moving around on service centers and different customers, given all the disruption that's taken place over the last 6 to 9 months. But OD stands ready, and we'll continue to add value to our customer supply chains and we feel like we'll be able to drive significant growth in our business as we go forward.

    所以所有這些相同的元素都已就位。鑑於過去 6 到 9 個月發生的所有乾擾,服務中心和不同客戶上可能會出現一些不同的標誌。但 OD 已做好準備,我們將繼續為我們的客戶供應鏈增加價值,我們認為,隨著我們的前進,我們將能夠推動我們業務的顯著成長。

  • Jeffrey Asher Kauffman - Partner

    Jeffrey Asher Kauffman - Partner

  • As funny as you were talking about the service centers, I was just thinking you can add all the service centers you want, but that doesn't make your service or your culture equivalent.

    就像你談論服務中心一樣有趣,我只是想你可以添加你想要的所有服務中心,但這並不意味著你的服務或你的文化等同。

  • Adam N. Satterfield - Executive VP of Finance, CFO & Assistant Secretary

    Adam N. Satterfield - Executive VP of Finance, CFO & Assistant Secretary

  • And that's a great observation.

    這是一個很好的觀察。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Marty Freeman for any closing remarks.

    我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給馬蒂·弗里曼發表閉幕詞。

  • Kevin M. Freeman - President & CEO

    Kevin M. Freeman - President & CEO

  • Yes. I'd like to thank all of you today for your participation, and we really appreciate your questions. If you have anything further, please feel free to give us a call, and we'll be glad to answer it. And I hope you have a good rest of the week. Thank you.

    是的。我要感謝大家今天的參與,我們非常感謝你們提出的問題。如果您還有任何疑問,請隨時致電我們,我們將很樂意為您解答。我希望你本週休息愉快。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation, and you may now disconnect.

    會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演示,您現在可以斷開連接了。