奧多明尼昂貨運 (ODFL) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Old Dominion Freight Line Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

早安，歡迎參加 Old Dominion Freight Line 2025 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作說明）請注意，本次活動正在錄影。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Jack Atkins, Director, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我將把會議交給投資者關係總監傑克·阿特金斯先生。請繼續。

Thank you, Gary. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Fourth Quarter 2025 Conference Call for Old Dominion Freight Line. Today's call is being recorded and will be available for replay beginning today and through February 11, 2026, by dialing 1 (855) 669-9658, access code 9011045. The replay of the webcast may also be accessed for 30 days at the company's website.

謝謝你，加里。各位早安，歡迎參加 Old Dominion Freight Line 2025 年第四季電話會議。今天的通話將被錄音，從今天起至 2026 年 2 月 11 日，可透過撥打 1 (855) 669-9658，接入碼 9011045 收聽回放。網路直播的回放也可在公司網站上觀看，有效期為 30 天。

This conference call may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and including statements, among others, regarding Old Dominion's expected financial and operating performance. For this purpose, any statements made during this call that are not statements of historical fact may be deemed to be forward-looking statements. Without limiting the foregoing, the words believes, anticipates, plans, expects and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. You are hereby cautioned that these statements may be affected by the important factors, among others, set forth in Old Dominion's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission and in this morning's news release. Consequently, actual operations and results may differ materially from the results discussed in the forward-looking statements. The company undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

本次電話會議可能包含 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》所界定的前瞻性陳述，其中包括 Old Dominion 預期財務和營運績效的陳述。為此，本次電話會議中任何非歷史事實的陳述均可被視為前瞻性陳述。在不限制前述內容的前提下，「相信」、「預期」、「計畫」、「期望」等字眼及類似表達旨在識別前瞻性陳述。特此提醒各位，這些聲明可能會受到許多重要因素的影響，這些因素已在 Old Dominion 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件以及今天早上的新聞稿中列出。因此，實際營運和結果可能與前瞻性聲明中討論的結果有重大差異。該公司不承擔因新資訊、未來事件或其他原因而公開更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務。

As a final note before we begin, we welcome your questions today. (Event Instructions)

在正式開始之前，最後提醒一句，我們歡迎大家提出問題。（活動須知）

At this time for opening remarks, I'd like to turn the conference over to the company's President and Chief Executive Officer, Marty Freeman. Marty, please go ahead.

現在，我謹將會議交給公司總裁兼執行長馬蒂·弗里曼先生，請他致開幕詞。馬蒂，請繼續。

Good morning, and welcome to our fourth quarter conference call. With me on the call today is Adam Satterfield, our CFO. And after some brief remarks, we will be glad to take your questions.

早上好，歡迎參加我們第四季電話會議。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是我們的財務長亞當·薩特菲爾德。簡短致詞後，我們將樂意回答各位的問題。

Old Dominion produced solid financial results during the fourth quarter that reflect our ongoing commitment to revenue, quality and cost discipline. We once again delivered best-in-class service to our customers, and our yields continue to improve. Although our operating ratio increased to a 76.7% for the quarter, we believe our profitability metrics will continue to lead our industry, and they reflect our team's ability to operate efficiently despite the challenging environment.

Old Dominion 在第四季度取得了穩健的財務業績，這反映了我們對收入、品質和成本控制的持續承諾。我們再次為客戶提供了一流的服務，我們的收益也不斷提高。儘管本季我們的營業比率上升至 76.7%，但我們相信我們的獲利能力指標將繼續引領產業，這反映了我們團隊在充滿挑戰的環境下高效運作的能力。

I want to thank our OD Family of employees for their dedication to our customers and their unwavering commitment to executing our long-term strategic plan. Our team remains focused on controlling what we can control to ensure that we continue to deliver an unmatched value proposition for our customers. The foundation of this value proposition is our ability to deliver superior service at a fair price. Our customers know that they can expect the highest standard of service from Old Dominion every day, which positions them to drive value for their own customers.

我要感謝我們 OD 大家庭的員工們，感謝他們對客戶的奉獻精神以及他們對執行我們長期策略計劃的堅定承諾。我們的團隊始終專注於控制我們能夠控制的因素，以確保我們繼續為客戶提供無與倫比的價值主張。這項價值主張的基礎是我們能夠以合理的價格提供優質的服務。我們的客戶知道，他們每天都能從 Old Dominion 獲得最高標準的服務，這使他們能夠為自己的客戶創造價值。

We are pleased to once again provide 99% on-time service in the fourth quarter and a cargo claims ratio of 0.1%. Our track record of consistently delivering superior service has helped us to win market share over the long term while also supporting our ongoing commitment to revenue quality. We maintain a disciplined approach to yield management that is designed to offset our cost inflation over the long term, while also allowing us to continue to make strategic investments in our capacity, our technology and most importantly, our people.

我們很高興在第四季度再次實現了 99% 的準時交付率和 0.1% 的貨物索賠率。我們始終如一地提供優質服務，這幫助我們在長期內贏得了市場份額，同時也支持了我們對收入品質的持續承諾。我們堅持採取嚴謹的收益管理方法，旨在長期抵消成本上漲，同時使我們能夠繼續對產能、技術以及最重要的——員工進行策略性投資。

While these investments have increased our overhead cost in the short term, we believe they will support our ability to grow with customers in the years ahead. Our consistent investment in capital expenditures throughout this economic cycle has differentiated us from our competitors over time. This is also a fundamental component of our value proposition, which has been critical to our ability to win more market share over the last decade than any other LTL carrier.

雖然這些投資在短期內增加了我們的營運成本，但我們相信它們將支持我們在未來幾年與客戶一起成長。在本輪經濟週期中，我們持續增加資本支出，這使我們從競爭對手中脫穎而出。這也是我們價值主張的一個基本組成部分，正是這一點使我們在過去十年中贏得了比任何其他零擔貨運公司都多的市場份額。

During the fourth quarter, our team continued to operate efficiently while also managing our discretionary spending. These efforts are reflected by how well we have controlled our variable operating costs over the last few years despite the decline in our overall network density and other inflationary headwinds. To put this in context, in 2022, when we generated a company record operating ratio of 70.6%, our direct operating expenses were approximately 53% of revenue.

第四季度，我們的團隊在維持高效運作的同時，也有效控制了可自由支配的支出。這些努力體現在我們過去幾年對可變營運成本的有效控制上，儘管我們的整體網路密度有所下降，並且面臨其他通膨不利因素。舉例來說，2022 年，我們實現了公司創紀錄的 70.6% 的營運比率，當時我們的直接營運費用約佔收入的 53%。

In 2025, our direct operating cost as a percent of revenue were also 53% despite the loss of network density associated with the decrease in volumes. Our efforts to enhance productivity have been made possible by key technology investments as well as business process improvements, which we believe will allow us to improve our operating ratio when business levels ultimately improve again.

2025 年，儘管銷售量下降導致網路密度降低，但我們的直接營運成本佔收入的百分比仍為 53%。我們透過關鍵的技術投資和業務流程改進來提高生產力，我們相信，當業務水平最終再次改善時，這將使我們能夠提高營運比率。

As we begin 2026, we are cautiously optimistic that we will see some recovery in demand within the industry. With the combination of our industry-leading service standards and more network capacity than we've ever had, we are better positioned than any other carrier to capitalize on improving economy. As a result, we are confident in our ability to win market share, generate profitable revenue growth and increase shareholder value over the long term.

進入 2026 年，我們謹慎樂觀地認為，產業需求將會出現一些復甦。憑藉我們行業領先的服務標準和比以往任何時候都更大的網路容量，我們比任何其他營運商都更有優勢，能夠充分利用經濟好轉帶來的機會。因此，我們有信心贏得市場份額，實現獲利性收入成長，並在長期內提高股東價值。

Thank you very much for joining us this morning, and now Adam will discuss our fourth quarter in greater detail.

非常感謝各位今天早上收看我們的節目，現在亞當將更詳細地討論我們第四季的情況。

Thank you, Marty, and good morning. Old Dominion's revenue totaled $1.31 billion for the fourth quarter of 2025, which was a 5.7% decrease from the prior year. Our revenue results reflect a 10.7% decrease in LTL tons per day that was partially offset by a 5.6% increase in our LTL revenue per hundredweight. Excluding fuel surcharges, our LTL revenue per hundredweight increased 4.9% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024.

謝謝你，馬蒂，早安。Old Dominion 2025 年第四季的營收總計 13.1 億美元，比去年同期下降 5.7%。我們的營收表現反映出零擔貨運量每天下降了 10.7%，但零擔貨運收入每百磅增加了 5.6%，部分抵銷了這一降幅。不計燃油附加費，我們每百磅零擔貨運收入比 2024 年第四季成長了 4.9%。

On a sequential basis, our revenue per day for the fourth quarter decreased 4.1% when compared to the third quarter of 2025 with LTL tons per day decreasing 4.8% and LTL shipments per day decreasing 6.5%. For comparison, the 10-year average sequential change for these metrics includes a decrease of 0.3% in revenue per day, a decrease of 1.3% in LTL tons per day and a decrease of 3.1% in LTL shipments per day.

與 2025 年第三季相比，第四季每日營收季減 4.1%，零擔貨運量每日下降 4.8%，零擔貨運量每日下降 6.5%。相較之下，這些指標的 10 年平均連續變動包括：每日收入下降 0.3%，每日零擔貨運噸數下降 1.3%，每日零擔貨運量下降 3.1%。

The monthly sequential changes in LTL tons per day during the fourth quarter were as follows: October decreased 5.3% as compared to September; November increased 2.6% as compared to October; and December decreased 4.0% as compared to November. The 10-year average change for these respective months is a decrease of 3.0% in October, an increase of 2.7% in November, and a decrease of 6.8% in December. For January, our revenue per day decreased 6.8% when compared to January 2025 due to a 9.6% decrease in our LTL tons per day that was partially offset by an increase in our LTL revenue per hundredweight. LTL revenue per hundredweight, excluding fuel surcharges, increased 3.9% in January.

第四季零擔貨運量（噸/天）的月度環比變化如下：10 月份比 9 月份下降 5.3%；11 月份比 10 月份增長 2.6%；12 月份比 11 月份下降 4.0%。過去十年中，這幾個月份的平均變化分別為：10 月下降 3.0%，11 月上升 2.7%，12 月下降 6.8%。與 2025 年 1 月相比，1 月我們的日收入下降了 6.8%，原因是零擔貨運量每天下降了 9.6%，但零擔貨運每百磅收入的增加部分抵消了這一影響。1 月零擔貨運收入（不含燃油附加費）每百磅增加 3.9%。

Our operating ratio increased 80 basis points to 76.7% for the fourth quarter of 2025. While we continue to operate efficiently and diligently managed our discretionary spending during the quarter, the decrease in our revenue had a deleveraging effect on many of our operating expenses.

2025年第四季，我們的營業比率上升了80個基點，達到76.7%。雖然我們在本季度繼續高效運作並認真管理了可自由支配的支出，但收入的下降對我們的許多營運支出產生了去槓桿化效應。

Our overhead costs, which tend to be more fixed in nature, increased 140 basis points as a percent of revenue due to this effect. The increase in our overhead cost also includes a 70-basis-point increase in depreciation as a percent of revenue, which reflects the continued execution of our long-term capital investment plan that Marty just discussed.

由於這種影響，我們相對固定的管理費用佔收入的百分比增加了 140 個基點。我們的管理費用增加還包括折舊佔收入百分比增加 70 個基點，這反映了 Marty 剛才討論的長期資本投資計劃的持續執行。

Our direct operating cost as a percent of revenue improved by 60 basis points as compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. This was primarily due to the net impact of adjustments we recorded in the fourth quarter each year that are related to third-party actuarial reviews of our injury and accident claims. The results of our annual -- of this annual review impact both the salary, wages and benefits and the insurance and claims line items on our income statement. We were otherwise able to effectively manage our direct variable costs to be consistent with the prior year.

與 2024 年第四季相比，我們的直接營運成本佔收入的百分比提高了 60 個基點。這主要是由於我們每年第四季度記錄的調整的淨影響，這些調整與第三方精算機構對我們的人身傷害和事故索賠的審查有關。本次年度審查的結果會影響我們損益表中的薪資、薪資和福利以及保險和索賠項目。除此之外，我們還能有效控制直接變動成本，使其與前一年保持一致。

Old Dominion's cash flow from operations totaled $310.2 million for the fourth quarter and $1.4 billion for the year, respectively, while capital expenditures were $45.7 million and $415 million for the same periods. We utilized $124.9 million and $730.3 million of cash for our share repurchase program during the fourth quarter and the year, respectively, while our cash dividends totaled $58.4 million and $235.6 million for the same period.

Old Dominion 第四季經營活動產生的現金流量總額為 3.102 億美元，全年為 14 億美元；同期資本支出分別為 4,570 萬美元及 4.15 億美元。我們在第四季和全年分別動用了 1.249 億美元和 7.303 億美元現金用於股票回購計劃，而同期現金股利總額分別為 5,840 萬美元和 2.356 億美元。

We were pleased that our Board of Directors approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.29 per share for the first quarter of 2026, which represents a 3.6% increase compared to the quarterly cash dividend paid in the first quarter of 2025. Our effective tax rate for the fourth quarter 2025 was 24.8% as compared to 21.5% in the fourth quarter 2024. We currently expect our effective tax rate to be 25.0% for the first quarter of 2026. This concludes our prepared remarks this morning.

我們很高興董事會批准了 2026 年第一季每股 0.29 美元的季度現金股息，這比 2025 年第一季支付的季度現金股息增長了 3.6%。2025 年第四季的實際稅率為 24.8%，而 2024 年第四季的實際稅率為 21.5%。我們目前預計 2026 年第一季的實際稅率為 25.0%。今天上午的發言到此結束。

Operator, we'll be happy to open the floor for questions at this time.

接線員，我們現在很樂意接受提問。

(Operator Instructions) Jordan Alliger, Goldman Sachs.

（操作員指示）Jordan Alliger，高盛。

I was wondering, I might as well ask that. Can you provide some sort of thoughts and perspectives on both -- any indication on demand and what you're seeing and hearing from customers and thoughts around possible better tone to volume as we move through the year? And then maybe it's all in conjunction with that, your thoughts on seasonality as we go from Q4 to Q1 from margins.

我正想問呢，不如就問問吧。您能否就這兩方面提供一些想法和見解—例如，您對市場需求有何看法？您從客戶那裡看到和聽到了什麼？以及隨著今年的推進，我們是否有可能在音量和音調方面取得更好的平衡？然後，也許這一切都與此有關，你對從第四季度到第一季利潤率的季節性看法。

Yes. I'll just start with the demand unless someone I'm sure, will probably get at that OR question. But I think we've seen some positive signs that we've been really pleased with really over the last couple of months that have been developing. And then the release this week of the ISM was certainly very positive to see. And maybe as an indication of hopefully, what things will be for the remainder of the year.

是的。除非有人能回答這個問題，否則我就先從需求開始。但我認為，在過去的幾個月裡，我們看到了一些令人欣喜的正面跡象。本週發布的ISM報告無疑令人振奮。或許這預示著今年餘下的時間裡，事情會朝著好的方向發展。

Obviously, over time, we've seen that ISM, that's a leading indicator and typically a couple of months after that inflect positive, we see volumes somewhat do the same. But just getting back to recent trends for what we've seen, the thing I've been most pleased with is the increase in weight per shipment. And I think we've talked for multiple quarters now when we've been trying to make the call on when is the demand environment going to finally turn, we've talked about looking at that weight per shipment for example, as really the indicator within our business. So that really increased. We were down about 1,450 pounds in kind of September-October time frame.

顯然，隨著時間的推移，我們看到ISM指數（一個領先指標）通常在幾個月後出現積極變化，而交易量也會在某種程度上出現相同的變化。但回到我們最近看到的趨勢，我最滿意的是每次出貨重量的增加。我認為，在過去的幾個季度裡，我們一直在討論如何判斷需求環境何時才能最終轉變，例如，我們討論過將每次發貨的重量作為我們業務中的真正指標。所以這個數字確實增加了。我們在九十月左右減重了大約 1450 磅。

We saw that increase to 1,489 pounds in November, which is above what our long-term seasonal increase would be for that month. And then we saw it increase further to 1,520 pounds in December, again, that was about a 2% increase. The 10-year average is about a 1% increase from November to December in weight. So it pretty much performed in January. We're right at 1,492 pounds.

11 月我們看到這一數字增加到 1489 磅，高於我們該月長期季節性增長的預期。然後我們看到，12 月這個數字進一步增加到 1520 磅，增幅約為 2%。過去十年的平均數據顯示，11 月到 12 月的體重大約增加了 1%。所以它基本上是在一月完成的。我們現在正好是 1492 磅。

So a little bit of a decrease, but that was right in line with seasonality. And I think somewhat impacted by a little disruption we had to our operations the last week of the month. We'd actually been trending higher than that as we progress through the month. So really good to see when looking at just tonnage per day, the weight per shipment, all those factors leading into the start of this new year and hopefully, finally seeing the turn that we've been predicting for the last couple of years take shape.

所以略有下降，但這完全符合季節性規律。我認為這在一定程度上受到了我們本月最後一周營運中斷的影響。實際上，隨著本月的推進，我們的趨勢一直高於這個水平。所以，從每日噸位、每次裝運重量以及所有這些因素來看，在新的一年伊始，看到我們預測了幾年的轉變終於開始，這真的很令人欣慰。

Chris Wetherbee, Wells Fargo.

克里斯‧韋瑟比，富國銀行。

Maybe I'll just pick up on that and ask about the first quarter kind of sequential from an operating ratio perspective and maybe any thoughts you have on revenue per day for the first quarter as well.

也許我會就此打住，問問您關於第一季營運比率的環比情況，以及您對第一季每日收入的看法。

Yes. Obviously, the revenue per day is going to lead right into it. And given the data that we just discussed for January, we're starting out a little bit behind seasonality, again, on a revenue per day standpoint. I feel like we'll close that gap. We've seen good performance it's early, but probably a little catch-up in business this week where we had the weather disruptions last week. So I think that will normalize. But hopefully, we can close the gap with seasonality as we progress through the remaining months of the quarter.

是的。顯然，每日收入將直接影響這一點。根據我們剛才討論的 1 月份的數據，從每日收入的角度來看，我們又一次稍微落後於季節性水準。我覺得我們能縮小這個差距。雖然現在下結論還為時過早，但本週業務可能會有所回升，彌補上週因天氣原因造成的業務中斷。所以我認為這種情況會逐漸正常化。但希望隨著本季剩餘月份的推進，我們能夠透過季節性因素縮小差距。

Just from a big picture top line standpoint, I feel like our revenue for the full quarter will probably come in somewhere between $1.25 billion and $1.3 billion. The low end of that range would be if we underperform seasonality at a rate similar to what we just did in the fourth quarter and then the top end would be normal seasonality. And if you take normal seasonality from January through February to March, that would put us kind of right there in the middle. So we'll see how that continues to take shape. And obviously, we give our mid-quarter updates that will allow for tracking.

從整體營收角度來看，我認為我們本季的營收可能會在 12.5 億美元到 13 億美元之間。此範圍的下限是指我們未能像第四季那樣以季節性規律進行業績下滑，而上限則是指正常的季節性規律。如果以一月到二月到三月的正常季節性來看，那我們剛好處於中間位置。所以我們將拭目以待，看看事情會如何發展。當然，我們也會發布季度中期更新報告，以便進行追蹤。

So with that said, the 10-year average change in the operating ratio was an increase of 100 to 150 basis points from the fourth quarter to the first. And I think we can get to the top end of that range. So I would say an increase of 150 basis points is probably the target and then maybe a plus/minus 20 basis points to continue to allow for some of that revenue uncertainty.

綜上所述，過去 10 年的營運比率平均變化為從第四季到第一季增加了 100 至 150 個基點。我認為我們可以達到這個範圍的上限。所以我認為目標可能是提高 150 個基點，然後再上下浮動 20 個基點，以應對收入方面的一些不確定性。

Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

Scott Group，Wolfe Research。

So Adam, I wanted to just -- you talked about the weight per shipment improving. Can you have -- do you have a sense of what's driving that? Is it -- are we starting to see some of the truckload stuff spilled back? Is it just underlying industrial getting better? And then maybe just help us -- I know that the yield trends decelerate a little bit into Q4 and maybe starting in Q1, but is that just the weight getting better? Or is any thoughts on just how to think about yield trends as we're going from here?

所以亞當，我只是想說——你剛才提到每次發貨的重量有所改善。你能——你知道是什麼在驅動這件事嗎？是不是──我們開始看到一些卡車運來的貨物倒塌了？只是基礎產業在改善嗎？然後也許可以幫幫我們——我知道收益率趨勢在第四季度有所放緩，甚至可能從第一季開始放緩，但這只是因為權重有所改善嗎？或者，對於我們未來該如何看待殖利率趨勢，大家有什麼想法嗎？

Yes. I think the weight is probably coming from all of the above. Looking at our contract customers, weight is up a little bit, our smaller mom-and-pop customers, which actually we saw a little bit more growth out of or better performance, I shouldn't say growth, in the fourth quarter, weight per shipment was up as well. And so I think that exactly what you said, as the truckload market is changing, we've talked a lot about the spillover effect and how that's impacted volumes over the last couple of years. I think we're probably in the early innings of some of that starting to normalize.

是的。我認為體重增加可能是以上所有因素造成的。從我們的合約客戶來看，重量略有增加；而我們的小型夫妻店客戶，實際上我們在第四季度看到了更多的增長或更好的業績（我不應該說是增長），每次發貨的重量也有所增加。所以我覺得你說的沒錯，隨著整車運輸市場的變化，我們已經討論了很多溢出效應以及這種效應在過去幾年中對運輸量的影響。我認為我們可能正處於某些方面開始正常化的初期階段。

I don't know that we're completely there yet, but just given how there's some supply rationalization there, it certainly feels like that is beginning to happen. And the weight certainly will put a little bit of pressure on our yield metrics, but our guidance for revenue per hundredweight for the fourth quarter was to be up 5%, and that would have been normal seasonality. So we came in right at 4.9%. Normal seasonality for the first quarter would be about 4.5% increase on a year-over-year basis. I feel like we've probably got at least a 50-basis-point headwind.

我不知道我們是否已經完全實現了目標，但考慮到目前供應方面已經出現了一些合理化措施，感覺這確實正在發生。重量增加肯定會對我們的收益率指標造成一些壓力，但我們對第四季度每百磅收入的預期是成長 5%，而這只是正常的季節性波動。所以我們最終的得票率為 4.9%。第一季的正常季節性波動約為年增 4.5%。我覺得我們可能至少會面臨 50 個基點的逆風。

It looks like right now with the change in weight per shipment. So that's actually a good thing. In January, kind of came in right at about that 4% threshold. So that's about what I would expect unless we see further increases in the weight that may put pressure on that revenue per hundredweight metric, but the reality is that's what we're hoping to see. We want to continue to see that weight per shipment going up because the thing that's being missed when we talk about revenue per hundredweight is what's the revenue per shipment.

目前看來，問題似乎出在每次出貨重量的變動。所以這其實是好事。一月份的時候，正好接近 4% 的門檻。所以，除非重量進一步增加，這可能會對每百磅的收入指標造成壓力，否則我的預期大概就是這樣。但現實情況是，這正是我們希望看到的。我們希望看到每次發貨的重量繼續增加，因為當我們談論每百磅收入時，我們忽略的是每次發貨的收入是多少。

And that will continue to go up as the weight increases, and that's going to be ultimately what we're looking at for success, how are we managing our revenue per shipment and our cost per shipment. And we've -- obviously, the last couple of years, the operating ratio has gone the other way because we've had more cost than revenue there on a per shipment basis. So as that weight continues to go up that's going to help us continue to build density in our network. It's going to allow for us to have more true yield on a per shipment basis and hopefully allow us to turn the corner and get right back to produce an improvement in our operating ratio and long-term profitable growth.

隨著重量的增加，這個數字還會繼續上升，而這最終將是我們衡量成功與否的標準，也就是我們如何管理每次出貨的收入和每次出貨的成本。顯然，在過去幾年裡，我們的營運比率發生了逆轉，因為以每次出貨計算，我們的成本超過了收入。因此，隨著權重的持續增加，這將有助於我們繼續提高網路密度。這將使我們每次出貨的實際收益更高，並有望幫助我們扭轉局面，重新提高營運比率，實現長期獲利成長。

Ravi Shanker, Morgan Stanley.

拉維‧香克爾，摩根士丹利。

So maybe just a bit of a color question here. I think you and your peers have spoken of some level of share shift away from LTL to TL in the down cycle, and you've expected that to come back when the market tightens up. I mean now that TL rates have been pretty tight for a couple of months. Are you starting to see that come back? And what do you think is the cadence of that coming back through the cycle?

所以，這裡可能涉及一個顏色方面的問題。我認為你和你的同行都談過，在經濟下行週期中，零擔運輸的份額會在一定程度上轉移到整車運輸，而且你們預計，當市場趨緊時，這種情況會恢復。我的意思是，TL匯率已經連續幾個月都很低迷了。你開始看到這種情況好轉了嗎？你認為這種現像在整個週期中反覆出現的節奏是怎麼樣的？

Yes. I think that it's a natural sort of change that happens. I think that when you look at that truckload environment and a lot of those carriers are barely breaking even or worse. We've seen some capacity rationalization, if you will, in that environment. And I think that's changed the pricing environment there.

是的。我認為這是一種自然而然發生的變化。我認為，當你觀察整車運輸市場時，你會發現很多運輸公司都勉強收支平衡，甚至更糟。在這種環境下，我們已經看到了一些產能合理化措施。我認為這改變了那裡的定價環境。

And so hopefully, we'll continue to see those trends change. At a time where it feels like overall industrial demand is ready to start showing some signs of improvement again. And again, we say we're cautiously optimistic about all this because we had improvement in the ISM last year at about the same time, and then we had the event in April that threw cold water on everything. So we're in a great spot to continue to handle any business that comes our way. We've got more capacity than we've ever had in our network.

所以，我們希望這些趨勢能夠繼續改變。目前，整體工業需求似乎即將開始出現一些復甦跡象。我們再次強調，我們對這一切持謹慎樂觀態度，因為去年同期ISM指數有所改善，但4月發生的事件卻給一切都潑了一盆冷水。因此，我們處於非常有利的位置，可以繼續處理任何擺在我們面前的業務。我們的網路容量比以往任何時候都要大。

We've got capacity with our equipment and capacity with our people. So we can respond to the inflection as it happens. And I think that's what has differentiated us from our competitors in the past. The ability to be able to take on significant volume growth in the early innings of the cycle is when we've gained the most market share in the past, and that's certainly what we're going to look to as this cycle and eventually inflect back to the positive.

我們的設備和人員都具備產能。這樣我們就能對這種語調變化做出及時的反應。我認為這正是我們過去與競爭對手區分開來的地方。在周期初期能夠實現顯著的銷售成長，是我們過去獲得最大市場份額的時期，這當然也是我們在這個週期中要努力的方向，並最終扭轉局面，走向積極的時期。

Ken Hoexter, Bank of America.

Ken Hoexter，美國銀行。

Adam, maybe just to follow on that or Marty, your thoughts on headcount down 6%, shipments down almost 10%. So we're seeing a bit of a decoupling. Is there more opportunity as you think about the cost cycle? Or is that more being prepared, as you just mentioned, to capture that? And similar to CapEx, it seems like you're aging the fleet a little bit as you reduced it from what down to $415 million this year, down another to $265 million next year. So now is there a cost impact on maintenance and the like. So maybe just it's a cost issue, but maybe you're talking about being more prepared for the upside.

Adam，或 Marty，我想接著說說你們的看法，關於員工人數減少 6%，出貨量減少近 10% 的情況。所以我們看到出現了一些脫鉤現象。從成本週期角度來看，是否還有更多機會？或者，正如你剛才提到的，這更多的是一種準備，為了捕捉它？與資本支出類似，你們似乎正在逐步淘汰部分車隊，因為今年你們將車隊預算從 4.15 億美元削減到 2.65 億美元。那麼現在這會對維護等方面的成本產生影響嗎？所以也許只是成本問題，但也許你指的是為未來的收益做更充分的準備。

Yes, we're definitely prepared for the up cycle. The average age of our fleet actually improved this past year. It's now down to an average of 3.9 years for our tractor fleet. And that's about where we like it, somewhere around four years. We've been below that before, and we've let it age up a little bit.

是的，我們已經為經濟週期的上漲做好了充分準備。去年，我們船隊的平均船齡實際上有所改善。現在我們拖拉機車隊的平均使用年限已降至 3.9 年。我們覺得這個時間差不多就行了，大約四年左右。我們以前也低於這個水平，我們讓它稍微回升了一些。

But really pleased with our operations team as they've continued to try to rightsize the fleet to make sure we've got all the equipment in the places we need but also managing through our cost inflation from a repairs and maintenance standpoint. When we went through -- go back to 2022, 2023, we had cost per mile inflation that was more in the 10% to 20% type of range for each of those years. And we've been sort of flattish, just some mild increases, if you will, over the last couple of years. And I think that's a reflection of the management team's efforts in that area and continuing to rightsize. But from an employee count standpoint, I think we continue to manage through.

但我真的非常滿意我們的營運團隊，他們一直在努力調整車隊規模，以確保我們所有的設備都能部署到我們需要的地方，同時還能從維修和維護的角度控製成本上漲。當我們回顧 2022 年、2023 年時，每英哩的成本通膨率在每年的 10% 到 20% 之間。過去幾年，我們的經濟一直比較平穩，只有一些小幅成長。我認為這反映了管理團隊在該領域所做的努力以及持續進行精簡人員規模的舉措。但從員工人數來看，我認為我們目前還能應付。

And at the local level, our service center managers are making sure they've got the right amount of people and have got the ability to flex hours up to meet the increased demand from our customers. So we're in great shape there. We'd anticipated that we would see a little attrition through the fourth quarter. That's about what we saw happen. And so the overall head count drifted down a little bit throughout the fourth quarter as we somewhat expected.

在地方層面，我們的服務中心經理們正在確保他們有足夠的人員，並且能夠靈活調整工作時間，以滿足客戶不斷增長的需求。所以，我們那邊的情況非常好。我們之前就預料到第四季會出現一些人員流失。我們看到的情況大致就是這樣。因此，正如我們預期的那樣，第四季度員工總數略有下降。

So I think that will likely be stabilized here. And when you look over the long term, the change in head count and the change in shipments really kind of match with one another. But what we'd expect to see is when we get into the early phase of this recovery, the number of hours worked by employee will increase on a per employee basis, we'll be able to step those hours up to meet the increased volume needs as they come. And so you should eventually see the volume growth that's leading any growth in head count before those two numbers kind of converge again.

所以我認為這種情況可能會在這裡趨於穩定。從長遠來看，員工人數的變化和出貨量的變化實際上是相互吻合的。但我們預計，在復甦初期，每位員工的工作時間將會增加，我們將能夠隨著業務量的成長而增加這些工時。因此，最終你應該會看到銷售成長領先於員工人數成長，然後這兩個數字才會再次趨於一致。

Reed Seay, Stephens.

里德·西伊，史蒂芬斯。

In the release, you pointed to a pretty low CapEx number relative to what you expected last year coming into 2025, and I don't know what you've done historically. Can you talk about maybe what's driving that lower CapEx expense this year and those expectations behind that guidance?

在新聞稿中，您指出 2025 年的資本支出數字相對於您去年的預期來說相當低，我不知道您過去的做法。您能否談談今年資本支出下降的原因以及做出這項預期的依據？

Yes. It's just a function really of how -- what the volume environment has been for the last couple, three years. And we've continued to run our CapEx plan. And that, too, is something that I think has differentiated us over time from our industry. In fact, we've spent about $2 billion in capital expenditures over the last three years and the volume environment, obviously, has not been robust.

是的。這實際上取決於過去兩三年來的交易量環境。我們一直在繼續執行我們的資本支出計劃。而我認為，正是這一點，讓我們在與同行業其他公司區分開來。事實上，過去三年我們在資本支出方面投入了約 20 億美元，但顯然，銷售環境並不強勁。

But I think we're in a really good spot when we sort of go down the elements of spend from a service center standpoint. We've got some projects that are in flight, and that's a lot of the spend that we've got this year. But we've got a little over 35% capacity in our service center network. We're handling a little over 40,000 shipments per day right now. And our network is built, they handle more like 55,000 or even more.

但我認為，從服務中心的角度來看，如果我們仔細分析各項支出要素，就會發現我們目前的狀況非常好。我們有一些正在進行的項目，這佔據了我們今年大部分的支出。但我們的服務中心網路產能利用率略高於 35%。我們目前每天處理略多於 4 萬件貨物的出貨量。我們的網路已經建成，可以處理大約 55,000 個甚至更多的請求。

We've done more in certain months back in '21 and '22. So we've got a lot of flex there to be able to grow. And the same thing with the fleet, just like I mentioned earlier, we've continued to rightsize the fleet, if you will, and take some of the older units out, but we've got some that continue to need to be replaced, and that's the majority of what's in the spend there in that category for this year. So it is lower than as a percent of revenue than our typical range being 10% to 15%, but that's really just a function of the consistent investment that we've made over the past three years and kind of where we stand now and just wanting the business to grow into the network that we've got built. And when that starts happening, you think about our fixed cost, and Marty alluded to this in his comments, our overhead cost.

我們在 2021 年和 2022 年的某些月份做得更多。所以我們有很大的發展空間。車隊的情況也一樣，就像我之前提到的那樣，我們一直在調整車隊規模，淘汰一些老舊車輛，但有些車輛仍然需要更換，而這部分支出佔了今年該類別支出的大部分。因此，它佔收入的百分比低於我們通常的 10% 到 15%，但這實際上只是因為我們在過去三年中持續進行的投資，以及我們目前的處境，我們只是希望業務能夠發展到我們已經建立的網絡中。當這種情況開始發生時，你會想到我們的固定成本，正如馬蒂在他的評論中提到的那樣，我們的管理費用。

If you go back to that 2022 period, they're up 450, 500 basis points, and that's really the difference in that record operating ratios in versus what we just completed in 2025. But once we start getting leverage on all these assets that we put in place, that overhead cost as a percent of revenue can swing back very, very quickly, and the density will allow us to further improve our direct cost as a percent of revenue as well. So that's what gives us the confidence that when we start seeing growth coming back in our business that we can get our operating ratio going back to that 70% type of threshold and beyond.

如果回顧 2022 年，它們上漲了 450 到 500 個基點，這就是創紀錄的營運比率與我們剛剛在 2025 年完成的營運比率之間的真正區別。但是，一旦我們開始利用我們投入的所有這些資產，間接成本佔收入的百分比就會很快回落，而且密度也會使我們能夠進一步降低直接成本佔收入的百分比。所以，這讓我們有信心，當我們的業務開始恢復成長時，我們可以將營業比率恢復到 70% 的門檻甚至更高。

Jason Seidl, TD Cowen.

Jason Seidl，TD Cowen。

Marty, Adam and Jack, I wanted to go back on sort of your employee headcount numbers as well as how should we think about driver pay and dockworker pay as we move throughout the year if some of your cautious optimism comes true when we start seeing a rebound? Do we expect that number to go up a little bit as we move throughout the year?

Marty、Adam 和 Jack，我想再談談你們的員工人數，以及如果你們的一些謹慎樂觀的看法在經濟開始反彈時成為現實，那麼隨著一年時間的推移，我們應該如何考慮司機和碼頭工人的工資？我們預計隨著時間的推移，這個數字會略有上升嗎？

Well, Jason, we always give an increase to our employees. And when we operate at a 75%, we're in the fortunate position to continue to reward our employees first. And from a stakeholder standpoint, we prioritize our employees and we want to make sure they're rewarded and continue to be motivated to take care of our customers. And when you give 99% on-time service and a cargo claims ratio that's below 0.1%, I think our employees have certainly delivered. So we continue to give healthy raises.

傑森，我們一直都會給員工加薪。當我們以 75% 的營運效率運作時，我們很幸運能夠繼續優先獎勵我們的員工。從利害關係人的角度來看，我們優先考慮員工，我們希望確保他們得到獎勵，並繼續保持積極性來服務我們的客戶。當我們提供 99% 的準時服務，貨物索賠率低於 0.1% 時，我認為我們的員工確實做到了。因此，我們會繼續給予員工合理的加薪。

We did so in -- September 1 this year. We also made improvements to our benefit plan cost and -- or the benefits to employees, which have increased those costs, and we'd expect to continue to see our fringe benefit cost as a percent of salaries and wages increase. And those finished the year at about 42% of salaries and wages in '25 and -- or at least in the fourth quarter. And -- but we expect that we'll have a little bit of headwind there on those benefit costs probably be somewhere in the 41% of salaries and wages in 2026.

我們在今年9月1日完成了這項工作。我們也改善了福利計畫的成本和/或員工福利，這增加了這些成本，我們預期員工福利成本佔薪資的百分比將持續上升。而這些支出在 2025 年底約為薪資總額的 42%，至少在第四季是如此。但是——我們預計，到 2026 年，這些福利成本可能會占到薪資的 41% 左右，屆時我們將面臨一些阻力。

So -- and then the final piece is the 401(k) match that we make, and I think that's what ties everything in together. And we give a discretionary match every year that's up to 10% of our company's net income. So we continue to put a lot of dollars into our employees' 401(k) plans to help them and their families prepare for retirement.

所以——最後一步就是我們進行的 401(k) 匹配，我認為這就是把所有事情聯繫在一起的關鍵。我們每年酌情提供配捐，最高可達公司淨收入的 10%。因此，我們繼續向員工的 401(k) 計劃投入大量資金，以幫助他們及其家人為退休做好準備。

That's great color. Should we expect the next sort of raise to be next or this September? Or do you think it will be sooner than that?

顏色真好看。我們應該預期下一次加薪會在明年九月還是今年九月到來？還是你認為會比那更早？

No, it's -- September is usually the timing of our --

不，通常是九月——我們的時間通常是九月。--

Jonathan Chappell, Evercore ISI.

Jonathan Chappell，Evercore ISI。

Adam, after two years of speaking to sub seasonality, it seems like a little bit more cautiously optimistic, as you said, and you laid out a first quarter where the middle of the range is February and March are in line with seasonality. A lot of your peers, even though they haven't reported yet, are talking to a peg of like if we do X in volume this year or tonnage, that leads to Y in OR. If you took that February, March midpoint of 1Q and rolled seasonality going forward, where would that put your tonnage on a year-over-year basis? And by association, where would that put your OR improvement for this year?

亞當，經過兩年對次季節性的探討，正如你所說，現在的情況似乎更加謹慎樂觀了。你列出了第一季的預測，其中二月和三月的中間值符合季節性規律。你們很多同行，即使他們還沒有公佈業績，也都在談論一個類似這樣的目標：如果我們今年的產量或噸位達到 X，那麼運力就會達到 Y。如果以 2 月、3 月第一季的中點為基準，並考慮季節性因素，那麼與去年同期相比，你的噸位會是多少？由此推算，您今年的手術室改善目標會處於什麼位置？

Yes. I think we normally just take it one quarter at a time. And obviously, there's a lot of ifs and buts that have got to play out and could play out in that scenario. But what they say, ifs and buts and beer and nuts, you have a hell of a party. And so I'll let all you guys sort of go through all those gymnastics.

是的。我認為我們通常都是一次只處理一個季度的事情。顯然，在這種情況下，有很多如果和但是需要解決，也可能會解決。但不管他們怎麼說，不管是什麼如果、但是、啤酒和堅果，你們都能舉辦一場非常棒的派對。所以，我就讓你們都去體驗一下這些體操動作吧。

But just looking at more in the short run because I don't want to undersell what the long term could be. We've produced some serious improvement in our operating ratio once we get into those stronger demand environments. When we actually see the script flipped, still remains to be seen. But the second quarter, we've kind of laid the framework out for the first quarter and the second quarter. Typically, you see revenue grow sequentially about 7% and the average operating ratio improvement is sequentially 300 to 350 basis points.

但我更關注短期前景，因為我不想低估長期發展的可能性。一旦進入需求強勁的市場環境，我們的營運比率就會顯著改善。劇情何時真正反轉，還有待觀察。但是，在第二季度，我們已經為第一季和第二季制定了框架。通常情況下，你會看到營收季增約 7%，平均營運比率較上季改善 300 至 350 個基點。

So that would -- if we see all of that, if we see the spring surge that typically would happen and lead to that 7% type of sequential increase, then that would put the operating ratio pretty close to being flat on a year-over-year basis in the second quarter. And then we would just have to sort of take it from there. But I still think we don't want anyone to really get out over their skis necessarily at this point from an expectation standpoint. It remains to be seen if this really is going to lead into that spring surge that we would typically see. We certainly feel like the stars are coming into alignment, but we felt that way before, and in particular, about February and March of last year.

所以，如果我們看到所有這些，如果我們看到通常會發生的春季激增，並導致 7% 的環比增長，那麼第二季度的營業比率將與去年同期基本持平。然後我們就只能順其自然了。但我仍然認為，從預期角度來看，我們目前並不希望任何人真的滑雪過度。這是否真的會導致我們通常會看到的春季疫情高峰，還有待觀察。我們當然感覺一切都在朝著好的方向發展，但我們以前也有過這種感覺，尤其是在去年二月和三月的時候。

So that's why we continue to say we're cautiously optimistic about how things might develop for this year. But I think that's why you're seeing some of the pullback in capital expenditures and doing other things that we feel like we needed to do to continue to manage our costs. And we've controlled our variable cost, and I couldn't be more pleased than I am with our operations team.

所以這就是為什麼我們仍然對今年的發展持謹慎樂觀態度的原因。但我認為，這就是為什麼你會看到我們在資本支出方面有所縮減，以及我們採取其他一些我們認為需要採取的措施來繼續控製成本的原因。我們已經控制了可變成本，我對我們的營運團隊非常滿意。

And if you think about the loss of network density, if you go back over the past couple of years, we've added about six service centers and there's a lot of cost that comes with that, just overhead cost and network line-haul costs, pickup delivery with the loss of density. So to be able to manage those costs says a lot to our team, says a lot to the continued investment in technology, the tools that we give the team to help kind of manage those costs and also to the yield discipline. If you weren't disciplined with yields throughout, we wouldn't have been able to keep those costs consistent as well. So a lot goes into it.

如果你考慮到網路密度的損失，回顧過去幾年，我們增加了大約六個服務中心，這帶來了許多成本，包括管理費用、網路線路運輸成本、取貨配送成本以及密度損失。因此，能夠控制這些成本，充分體現了我們團隊的實力，也充分體現了我們對技術的持續投入，以及我們為團隊提供的幫助控制這些成本的工具，還有我們對產量控制的嚴格把控。如果你在整個過程中沒有嚴格控制收益率，我們也無法保持成本的穩定。所以這裡面涉及很多方面。

And it's a total team effort from sales operations, pricing cost and you name it. It all kind of feeds into how we've been able to continue to produce strong profitable growth over the long term. But the last 10 years, despite this three-year freight recession, we've still got a 10-year average growth rate of about 15% in our net income. So it just says a lot to what we've done, but we think about the future, we've got a lot of room for growth ahead and operating ratio improvement. So I'm happy with what we've done, but more excited about what can come.

這是銷售營運、定價成本等各個環節的團隊共同努力的成果。這一切都與我們如何能夠長期保持強勁的獲利成長息息相關。但過去 10 年，儘管經歷了這三年的貨運衰退，我們的淨收入 10 年平均成長率仍達到了約 15%。這充分說明了我們所取得的成就，但展望未來，我們還有很大的成長空間，營運比率也有所改善。我對我們已取得的成就感到滿意，但更期待未來會發生什麼。

Eric Morgan, Barclays.

艾瑞克摩根，巴克萊銀行。

I wanted to just follow up on the pricing discussion. It sounds like weight per shipment is having a mix effect in the first quarter. Just curious how we should think about what the cadence might look like looking a little bit further out, especially if that -- if you do kind of hold that 1,500-pound level, I think that would be a larger increase in 2Q and 3Q from last year. So just curious how we should think about that impact as well as maybe length of haul a little bit lower here. Should we just kind of naturally see that yield number trend a little bit lower from mix?

我只是想就價格問題再討論一下。看來每批貨物的重量在第一季產生了好壞參半的影響。我只是好奇，如果把目光放得更遠一些，我們應該如何看待節奏的變化，特別是如果——如果你能保持 1500 磅的水平，我認為第二季度和第三季度的增幅會比去年更大。所以，我只是好奇我們該如何考慮這種影響，或許應該稍微縮短一下運輸距離。我們是否應該看到，由於混合比例的變化，產量數字自然略有下降？

Yes, I think so. I mean, just looking at what normal seasonality would be, we'd be in kind of that 4% to 4.5% type of range. And again, if we have even more of an increase in weight, it could be lower. When you look back at some of our stronger years, from an overall revenue standpoint, volume environment, those types of things, we've had revenue per hundredweight growth that's been more in the 3% range. And that was my point earlier with the comment that sometimes, I think we get so down in the weeds and thinking about revenue per hundredweight kind of miss the big picture of what's really the revenue trends doing and what's our revenue per shipment versus cost per shipment.

是的，我也這麼認為。我的意思是，如果按照正常的季節性波動來看，我們應該在 4% 到 4.5% 的範圍內。而且，如果體重進一步增加，這個數字可能會更低。回顧我們過去一些業績較好的年份，從整體營收、銷售環境等角度來看，我們每百磅的營收成長率在 3% 左右。這就是我之前評論的觀點，有時候，我認為我們太過於糾結於每百磅的收入，而忽略了收入趨勢的真正走向，以及每次發貨的收入與每次發貨的成本之間的關係。

So I'd love to see our weight per shipment go back up to 1,600 pounds, which is where we've been in stronger demand environments. And yes, that might put pressure on that revenue per hundredweight. That's going to do wonderful things for the overall top line revenue as well as what we would be able to do from an operating ratio standpoint. So we'll continue to kind of manage through that. But certainly, would hope we see that weight per shipment.

所以我希望看到我們每次發貨的重量能恢復到 1600 磅，這是我們在需求旺盛時期一直保持的重量。是的，這可能會對每百磅的收入造成壓力。這將對整體營收以及我們的營運比率產生巨大的正面影響。所以我們會繼續想辦法應付這種情況。當然，我們希望看到每批貨物的重量達到這個標準。

And if we're talking about some revenue per hundredweight that might be a little bit lower than what was reported the last couple of years, that's probably a good thing in the sense of what's really going on with the demand environment. There's certainly no change with what our yield management philosophy is or how disciplined we continue to be as we manage cost and manage yields.

如果每百磅的收入比過去幾年報告的要低一些，從需求環境的實際發展來看，這可能是一件好事。我們的收益管理理念以及我們在成本管理和收益管理方面所秉持的嚴謹態度，絕對沒有任何改變。

Richa Harnain, Deutsche Bank.

Richa Harnain，德意志銀行。

So Adam, you mentioned that last week, you saw some disruption income. Maybe just clarify what went into that? Was it just weather? And did that weigh on your cost? Should we expect higher costs this quarter, too, in light of that weather?

亞當，你上週提到過，你看到了一些收入中斷。或許應該解釋一下具體情況？僅僅是天氣原因嗎？這是否增加了你的成本？鑑於這種天氣狀況，我們是否也應該預期本季成本會更高？

Is that embedded in your 150 basis points change in OR target? Also another clarification, curious if the government shutdown had any impact on 4Q or potential impact this quarter from that on you or the industry this quarter? And then -- so those are -- that's a clarification. And then I guess just my real question beyond those clarifications is incremental margins. You said you have more excess capacity than you've ever had in your network.

這是否已包含在您設定的 150 個基點的 OR 目標變更中？另外還有一個疑問，政府停擺是否對第四季業績或本季對您或整個產業造成了任何影響？然後——所以這些是——這是個澄清。那麼，除了這些澄清之外，我真正的問題是增量利潤率。你說你的網路現在擁有的剩餘容量比以往任何時候都多。

I know you said you're quite excited about what's to come. Should we think that your incremental returns on growth can be higher than we've ever seen? And I believe you clipped 40% post-COVID, but that was accompanied by really strong revenue growth. So I'm not sure if that's a unique situation.

我知道你說過你對未來感到非常興奮。我們是否應該認為，你們的成長增量報酬率會比我們以往所見的更高？我相信你們在新冠疫情後股價下跌了 40%，但同時，營收也實現了強勁成長。所以我不太確定這是否是一個特例。

Yes. I'll probably spend more time addressing the last real question. But yes, the snowstorm last week, obviously, was disruptive, and that was baked into our revenue and margin guidance and really nothing material to speak from a government shutdown standpoint.

是的。我可能會花更多時間來回答最後一個真正的問題。但上週的暴風雪確實造成了乾擾，這一點已經反映在我們的收入和利潤率預期中，從政府停擺的角度來看，這實際上並沒有什麼實質的影響。

But I think -- just thinking about incremental margins, to me, one, we got to get back to revenue growth to produce them. But I like to think about that breakdown in our income statement structure. And we talk a lot about our direct variable costs. Those were 53% of revenue in 2025. So if you bring on $1 of business, you should be able to generate a 47% incremental margin if it just takes variable costs from that standpoint and just get complete leverage on all your overhead. And typically, that is what's happened in the early innings of our recovery. We just see more of that variable cost and getting that leverage there before you've got to get back into investing in new service center expansion and new equipment and those other assets.

但我認為——僅從增量利潤的角度來看，對我來說，首先，我們必須恢復收入成長才能實現這些成長。但我喜歡思考我們損益表結構中的這種細分。我們經常談到直接變動成本。這些佔2025年收入的53%。因此，如果增加 1 美元的業務，只從這個角度考慮變動成本，並充分利用所有管理費用，你應該能夠產生 47% 的增量利潤。通常情況下，這就是我們復甦初期發生的情況。我們看到更多的是變動成本，以及如何在重新投資新的服務中心擴建、新設備和其他資產之前獲得這種槓桿作用。

But as you add new service centers, that creates incremental costs. You've got a new service center manager and a team of employees at the facility and the office and salespeople and things like that. So it all kind of ties in together.

但是，隨著新增服務中心的增加，就會產生額外的成本。你們有了新的服務中心經理，還有工廠、辦公室、銷售人員等團隊的員工。所以這一切其實都是相互關聯的。

But when I think about just where we stand now, 75% operating ratio, we've been at 70.6%. We've talked before about getting to a sub-70% operating ratio. I think that sort of mid-40s makes sense, from an incremental margin standpoint, makes sense in the early innings. But then let's just stay focused on getting back to achieving that sub-70% operating ratio. And we certainly can get there.

但當我想到我們目前的處境時，營運比率為 75%，而我們之前的營運比率是 70.6%。我們之前討論過要將營運比率降至70%以下。我認為從邊際優勢的角度來看，40多分是合理的，在比賽初期是合理的。但是，我們還是應該集中精力，盡快恢復到低於70%的營運比率。我們當然可以達成這個目標。

I referenced this earlier, but when you look back at some of our really strong years with revenue growth, we've had operating ratio improvement in the 300-or-more-basis-point range in any given year. So that's what we'll be focused on. That will help drive that 75% back to the 70%. And when we get to 70%, when we beat that goal, that's when we'll establish the next one and probably give new incremental margin longer-term type of goals that we're looking at as well.

我之前提到過這一點，但回顧我們一些收入成長非常強勁的年份，在任何一年，我們的營運比率都改善了 300 個基點或更多。所以這就是我們將要重點關注的面向。這將有助於將 75% 的比例拉回到 70%。當我們達到 70% 的目標，也就是超過這個目標的時候，我們就會設定下一個目標，也可能設定新的、更長期的、增量利潤目標，這也是我們正在考慮的。

Tom Wadewitz, UBS.

瑞銀集團的湯姆·瓦德維茨。

So Adam, I think there's -- this ISM print was so large that such a big step-up that -- and some of the commentary wasn't as bullish as the number and the orders going up a lot too. What do you hear from customers? Do you hear that much kind of good news and enthusiasm about improvement in activity? Or how do you kind of look at what your customer feedback is? And just kind of thinking maybe relative to such a big ISM number, which I know historically is a really good read for LTL?

所以亞當，我認為——ISM 這份報告的規模如此之大，以至於——而且一些評論並沒有像報告的數字和訂單量大幅增長那樣看漲。你從客戶那裡聽到了什麼？你聽過這麼多關於活動改善的好消息和熱情嗎？或者說，您是如何看待客戶回饋的？我只是在想，相對於如此龐大的ISM指數而言，這或許會有什麼影響，我知道從歷史資料來看，ISM指數對於LTL（零擔貨運量）來說是一個非常好的參考指標？

Yes. I think that obviously, we solicit feedback constantly from our customer base and our sales team in the fourth quarter. We build a bottoms-up forecast, and we marry that with a top-down forecast where we're looking at other macroeconomic indicators. And things are starting to feel a little bit better.

是的。我認為很顯然，我們在第四季會不斷徵求客戶群和銷售團隊的回饋。我們採用由下而上的預測方法，並將其與自上而下的預測方法結合，在自上而下的預測方法中，我們會參考其他宏觀經濟指標。情況開始好轉了一些。

Even in the fourth quarter last year, I feel like we've had some really good customer conversations in the sense of what they were anticipating their volumes might look like, the amount of business that they would tender to us and so forth that gave us a little sense of optimism.

即使在去年第四季度，我也覺得我們與客戶進行了一些非常好的溝通，了解了他們對銷售的預期，以及他們會向我們提供的業務量等等，這讓我們感到有些樂觀。

And I just continue to say that that's one month of a print with the ISM and that's why we want everyone to be cautious with it. We're still looking at volumes that have been down on a year-over-year basis. And -- but we feel like things are getting better. And we're still talking about revenue that would be down on a year-over-year basis in the first quarter.

我只想繼續強調，這只是 ISM 一個月的印刷量，所以我們希望大家都要謹慎對待。我們目前看到的銷量較去年同期仍呈下降趨勢。而且——但我們感覺情況正在好轉。而且我們討論的仍然是第一季同比下降的收入。

But one of the things about our business model is I feel like when you think about our long-term strategy of giving superior service, allowing that service to support a fair price, pricing targeting 100 to 150 basis points of yield above price or cost rather, that's allowed us to improve our cash from operations.

但我覺得，我們商業模式的一個特點是，當我們思考我們提供優質服務的長期策略，並讓這種服務支撐一個合理的價格時，定價目標是比價格或成本高出 100 到 150 個基點的收益率，這使我們能夠改善營運現金流。

There's a flywheel effect to our business model. And we've got to get that flywheel effect going again. So as we can get into the early innings, it's -- those first rotations are a little bit slower. We're just making sure everybody is thinking through all of those factors, and it's not just going to turn around on a dime starting tomorrow because that one economic data point came out. But if we are in the early stages of this, I think history repeats itself in this industry. And you certainly can see how we've outperformed the other carriers when we get into those early stages of recovery. And we're certainly in a position. Our team is in position and ready to roll. So we're ready to put it on the trucks and see revenue growth coming again and the operating ratio improvement will follow.

我們的商業模式具有飛輪效應。我們必須重新啟動這種飛輪效應。所以到了比賽初期，節奏就會比較慢。我們只是想確保每個人都考慮到了所有這些因素，不會因為公佈了某個經濟數據點，明天情況就立刻發生翻天覆地的變化。但如果我們正處於這個行業的早期階段，我認為歷史會在這個行業中重演。當然，在復甦初期，我們肯定能看出我們的表現優於其他業者。我們目前確實處於有利地位。我們的團隊已就緒，準備就緒。所以我們已經準備好把它裝上卡車，期待收入再次成長，營運比率也會隨之改善。

So you are hearing positive input from customers, but maybe not to the degree of the move up in the ISM number. Is that a fair understanding of what you said?

所以，您聽到了客戶的正面回饋，但可能沒有達到 ISM 評分上升的幅度。我這樣理解你的意思對嗎？

Yes, that's fair.

是的，這很合理。

Bruce Chan, Stifel.

布魯斯·陳，史蒂費爾。

Adam, you talked about 35% spare capacity in the network. And I know these past couple of years, we've been a little bit more focused on door and facility infrastructure. Just wondering if that number is similar for the fleet and line-haul network, especially with some of the better planning tools that you have and maybe how we should think about additional fleet CapEx versus maybe flexing PT higher if volumes do indeed accelerate?

亞當，你之前提到網路中有 35% 的備用容量。我知道在過去的幾年裡，我們更加關注門禁和設施基礎設施。我想知道這個數字對於車隊和乾線運輸網絡是否類似，尤其是在你們擁有一些更好的規劃工具的情況下，以及如果貨運量確實加速增長，我們應該如何考慮增加車隊資本支出，還是應該提高公共交通的靈活性？

Yes. We don't have that much excess capacity in the fleet, if you will, that would -- we have been heavy with our fleet, but probably not at that same type of level. We try to keep that a little bit tighter. You always want to have spare capacity, if you will, especially in the trailing equipment. If you've got that much excess power, it just hurts you. It's very punitive from a depreciation per unit standpoint.

是的。我們船隊並沒有那麼多過剩運力，也就是說──我們的船隊一直都很滿，但可能沒有達到那個程度。我們盡量把這個限制控制得更嚴格一些。你總是希望留有一些餘量，尤其是在牽引設備方面。如果你擁有如此多的過剩力量，最終只會害了自己。從單位折舊的角度來看，這懲罰性太強了。

So -- but part of our CapEx this year, we've got about $105 million that's slated, I think, for equipment. And so that's something that we'll continue to look at replacing where we need to replace. We use a tractor for about 10 years. So we've got some that are at that point of being replaced. And -- but continuing to rightsize the equipment pool as well. And making sure that we've got equipment in all the right places where we're seeing growth to keep the line-haul network in balance. And we've continued to make adjustments to the line-haul throughout the year.

所以——但我們今年的資本支出中，大約有 1.05 億美元計劃用於設備。所以我們會繼續關注並替換需要替換的部件。我們使用這台拖拉機大約10年了。所以，我們有一些設備已經到了需要更換的地步。而且——還要繼續調整設備規模。確保我們在所有成長區域都配備了合適的設備，以保持幹線運輸網路的平衡。我們全年都在不斷調整幹線運輸。

The team has done a phenomenal job of making sure that we're meeting service standards. We've continued to tighten some of our transit times in certain lanes as well despite the limited density that's been in the network. So looking forward to get more freight back in the system that will make some of that a lot easier, reduce our empty miles, allow us to start running more directs and bypassing some brakes and so forth. And that's what gives me comfort in knowing that those direct costs that we've talked about that are 53% of revenue in 2025 that we can really show some strong improvement in that number once we get density flowing again.

團隊在確保我們達到服務標準方面做得非常出色。儘管路網密度有限，但我們仍繼續縮短某些車道的運輸時間。所以，我們期待著更多的貨物重新進入系統，這將使一些事情變得容易得多，減少我們的空駛里程，使我們能夠開始運行更多的直達列車並繞過一些煞車等等。這讓我感到欣慰的是，我們之前討論過的那些直接成本，到 2025 年將佔收入的 53%，一旦人口密度再次上升，我們就能在這個數字上取得顯著改善。

Ari Rosa, Citigroup.

Ari Rosa，花旗集團。

So I was hoping you could address competitive dynamics in the industry. Just maybe speak to what your level of confidence is that this cycle will play out like past cycles. And specifically, I'm curious about just the role of Amazon, we've been hearing a lot about their growth ambitions or them looking to expand in the LTL space and then obviously, FedEx is planning the separation of its freight business. Just talk about how you feel you're positioned. I know obviously, the service continues to be exceptional in OD, but just talk about how you think the cycle could play out this time around.

所以，我希望您能談談這個產業的競爭格局。或許你可以談談你對本輪週期將像以往週期一樣發展的信心程度。具體來說，我很好奇亞馬遜的角色，我們經常聽到關於他們的成長雄心或他們尋求在零擔貨運領域擴張的消息，而聯邦快遞顯然也在計劃剝離其貨運業務。就說說你覺得自己目前的處境如何。我知道，組織發展方面的服務一如既往地出色，但請談談您認為這次的周期會如何發展。

Yes. Well, all the carriers that are there, top 10 carriers are 80% or so of the industry, they're all the same other than Yellow, that was there before. So we've been competing against these companies for years, and I feel like capacity within the industry continues to be tight and maybe more so than what the perception out there is when you look at the total number of service centers back in 2022 versus what was reported at the end of 2024. We've seen about a 6% decrease in the number of service centers in the industry.

是的。嗯，所有在場的運營商，前十名運營商佔據了行業約 80% 的份額，除了之前就存在的 Yellow 之外，其他都一樣。所以，我們多年來一直在與這些公司競爭，我覺得行業內的產能仍然很緊張，而且可能比外界的感知還要緊張，當你查看 2022 年的服務中心總數與 2024 年底報告的數據時就會發現這一點。我們發現，業界的服務中心數量減少了約 6%。

And when you look at shipments per day per service center, those two metrics at the end of '22 versus the end of '24 are about the same. So you take an environment that was tight back then and when you look at the growth numbers for other carriers, despite how strong the volume environment was in '21 and '22, at least for the public carriers, I think the growth in tonnage in '21 was about 4% when we grew 16%. So most of the carriers run their networks a little closer to the full utilization. And I think that's a structural difference that we have. We own the majority of our service centers, about 95% of our doors overall. And so we're comfortable with continuing to invest through the cycle and having more of that latent capacity out there to grow into.

當你查看每個服務中心每天的出貨量時，你會發現 2022 年底和 2024 年底的這兩個指標大致相同。所以，考慮到當時的市場環境緊張，再看看其他航空公司的成長數據，儘管 2021 年和 2022 年的貨運量環境非常強勁，至少對於公共航空公司而言，我認為 2021 年的貨運噸位增長率約為 4%，而我們的增長率為 16%。因此，大多數營運商的網路利用率都接近滿載運轉。我認為這是我們之間存在的結構性差異。我們擁有大部分服務中心，約占我們所有門市的 95%。因此，我們樂於在周期中繼續投資，並讓更多潛在產能得以釋放和發展。

And that asset ownership gives us that ability to do so. So that's why we're confident that when we see the demand environment growing again, that I think we'll be able to significantly outgrow the industry. And when we do so, we'll see stronger returns coming in. Despite the challenging environment that we've had for the last few years, we're still producing returns on invested capital of 25% to 30%.

而資產所有權賦予了我們這種能力。所以，我們有信心，當市場需求再次成長時，我們將能夠大幅超越產業平均值。這樣做的話，我們會看到更強勁的回報。儘管過去幾年我們面臨著充滿挑戰的環境，但我們的投資資本回報率仍然達到了 25% 到 30%。

And when you look at GAAP numbers, true GAAP earnings, we've got some competitors that have got net income margins in the low single digits. And so I think that will be the opportunity, what we've seen in past cycles is that's when other carriers will increase rates more and take advantage of the supply and demand imbalance. But for us, we want to continue on with just more of a consistent strategy. And that's when we see that big density opportunity, if you will, and that's what we're expecting when we finally see the turn in the cycle.

當你查看 GAAP 數據，也就是真正的 GAAP 收益時，你會發現我們的一些競爭對手的淨利率只有個位數。所以我認為這將是一個機會，我們從過去的周期中看到，其他保險公司會在這個時候提高費率，利用供需失衡的情況。但對我們來說，我們希望繼續採取更一致的策略。那時我們就能看到巨大的密度成長機會，這也是我們期待週期最終轉變時會出現的情況。

Jeff Kauffman, Vertical Research.

Jeff Kauffman，Vertical Research。

Congratulations. A lot of my questions have been answered at this point. So I want to go back to the equipment discussion you were having. Some of the truckers I've been talking to have said, listen, we're having trouble quoting our Freightliners or our Internationals because of the Section 232 tariffs and people aren't certain what the rebates are going to be, but we've got more fundamental pricing on our domestically produced trucks like our Petes and Kenworth. I was just kind of curious what you're seeing on the equipment side in terms of quoting activity from the OEs in the wake of some of the tariff changes?

恭喜。到目前為止，我的許多疑問都得到了解答。所以我想回到你們剛才討論的設備問題上來。我跟一些卡車司機聊過，他們說，聽著，由於第 232 條款關稅，我們很難給我們的 Freightliner 或 International 卡車報價，而且人們也不確定會有多少退稅，但是我們國產卡車（如 Pete 和 Kenworth）的價格更穩定。我只是有點好奇，在關稅政策改變之後，您觀察到設備方面，原始設備製造商的報價活動有何變化？

Yes. I think that there are always challenges that we go through when we look at the cost of equipment and how we plan for equipment and so forth. It seems like every engine change and new regulation, it's done nothing but increase the cost of equipment. And for us, as I just mentioned, we typically will use a tractor for 10 years. So when you think about the per unit price 10 years ago versus today, it's significantly different. That's a big driver of some of our cost inflation when you think about those on a per unit basis. So that's part of why we -- when we look at the number of units we were going to buy this year, you take that all into consideration. But at the end of the day, you need the fleet that you need, and you've got to build the pricing of those units and every other element of cost that we deal with into our cost model and let that drive the output of what we need.

是的。我認為，在考慮設備成本、設備規劃等方面，我們總是會遇到一些挑戰。似乎每一次引擎的改進和新規的出台，都只會增加設備的成本。正如我剛才提到的，我們通常會使用一台拖拉機 10 年。所以，如果你比較一下 10 年前的單位價格和今天的單位價格，你會發現兩者之間有顯著差異。從單位成本來看，這是我們部分成本上漲的主要原因。所以，部分原因在於——當我們考慮今年要購買的單位數量時，我們會把所有這些因素都考慮進去。但歸根結底，你需要你需要的車隊，你必須將這些車輛的定價以及我們處理的其他所有成本因素納入我們的成本模型，並讓這些因素驅動我們所需車輛的產量。

But I would say, again, that's just one element of cost. If you go up and down in our income statement and you look and think about per unit inflation, we've been able to average cost per shipment inflation of about 3.5% to 4% over the last 10 years.

但我還是要說，這只是成本的一​​個組成部分。如果你仔細查看我們的損益表，並考慮單位通貨膨脹率，你會發現，在過去的 10 年裡，我們平均每次發貨的成本通貨膨脹率約為 3.5% 至 4%。

Each line item has had significant inflation and more so than that number. That's the importance of why we stay so focused on our cost and managing cost and managing efficiencies and discretionary spending, we're doing all these other things. We're driving operating efficiencies that really minimize the true inflationary impact that we're seeing from things like insurance costs, group health and dental medical costs, the cost of equipment and so forth and so on. So our team has done a great job leveraging technologies, business process improvements to be able to keep our cost inflation low. And then that, in turn, allows us to when we think about trying to target 4.5% to 5% type of increases that we've generated over the long term in our revenue per shipment, that's that positive 100 to 150 basis points delta that we want to be able to generate those too.

每個項目都出現了顯著的通貨膨脹，而且通貨膨脹程度遠遠超出預期。這就是為什麼我們如此關注成本、成本管理、效率管理和可自由支配支出，同時也要兼顧其他一切的原因。我們正在努力提高營運效率，從而最大限度地減少保險成本、團體健康和牙科醫療成本、設備成本等等等方面的真正通膨影響。因此，我們的團隊在利用技術和業務流程改進方面做得非常出色，從而能夠將成本通膨控制在較低水準。反過來，當我們考慮如何實現長期以來每筆出貨收入成長 4.5% 到 5% 的目標時，我們也希望能夠實現這 100 到 150 個基點的正成長。

But we can't take our eye off the ball when it comes to managing costs. You've got to think about costs day in and day out in good times and bad. And I think that's what our team has done over the -- really over the course of our history, but over the past few years, in particular.

但是，在成本控制方面，我們絕不能掉以輕心。無論順境或逆境，你都必須日復一日地考慮成本問題。我認為，這正是我們團隊一直以來所做的事——實際上，在我們整個發展歷程中，尤其是在過去幾年所做的。

Brian Ossenbeck, J.P. Morgan.

Brian Ossenbeck，摩根大通。

Adam, just to quickly follow up on the cost per shipment inflation you're expecting this year. Is it still a 3.5% to 4%? And you outlined some of the equipment and health care costs. Is that something you still think is reasonable to expect this year? And then maybe just to follow up on the competition side. Private companies are obviously getting a bit bigger here as well in the wake of going out of business. I wanted to see if you thought that had any impact on how the next cycle -- up cycle might play out for the industry.

Adam，我只是想快速跟進一下你預計今年每次發貨成本的通膨情況。還是3.5%到4%嗎？您還列出了一些設備和醫療保健費用。你仍然認為今年有合理的預期嗎？然後或許還要跟進一下競爭對手的狀況。隨著一些私人企業倒閉，這些企業的規模顯然也不斷擴大。我想看看你認為這會對下一個週期——也就是產業的上升週期——的發展產生什麼影響。

Yes. So the cost inflation, we're -- I think it's going to probably be a little bit heavier again this year. I'm thinking it's probably going to be more in the 5% to 5.5% range. And that's core inflation, not really thinking about what fuel might do. And right now, we're looking at fuel prices that have been lower on a year-over-year basis. So we'll see how that continues to play out.

是的。所以，就成本通膨而言，我認為今年的情況可能會更糟一些。我估計大概會在 5% 到 5.5% 之間。而且這是核心通膨，並沒有真正考慮燃料價格可能產生的影響。目前，我們看到的燃油價格較去年同期有所下降。所以，我們拭目以待事態如何​​發展。

But I feel like we've -- as I mentioned earlier, we're looking at a little more inflation from an employee benefit standpoint. I think we're going to continue to see some pressures there within our group health and dental cost in particular. And then we've made some continued improvements to our paid time off policies and so forth that I referenced. So anticipating some inflation there, continued inflationary increases.

但我覺得——正如我之前提到的——從員工福利的角度來看，我們正面臨更大的通貨膨脹。我認為我們團體醫療和牙科保險的費用方面會繼續面臨一些壓力。然後，我們對帶薪休假政策等方面進行了一些持續改進，我之前也提到過。因此，預計當地會出現一些通貨膨脹，通膨將持續上升。

As just mentioned on the equipment on our insurance programs and other things. So if we can get some density coming back in the system, I think that is something that could turn that number into maybe seeing some improvement and working it back down. But if you just sort of stay in more of a neutral volume environment, if you will. I'm thinking that we're going to be more in that 5% to 5.5% range. And remind me again, the second part was just about the impact of Yellow being out.

正如剛才在我們的保險計劃和其他事項中提到的設備一樣。所以，如果我們能讓系統中的密度恢復一些，我認為這或許能讓這個數字有所改善，並使其逐漸下降。但如果你盡量保持在一個音量適中的環境中，那就好了。我認為最終的比例會更接近 5% 到 5.5%。再提醒我一下，第二部講的是黃隊出局的影響。

Yes, just how private companies seem to have taken up some of that extra capacity that has a meaningful impact on how the industry might play out or the cycle might play out?

是的，私人企業似乎已經佔據了一些額外的產能，這對產業的走向或週期的走向產生了重大影響？

Yes. I think many of those service centers ended up with the private carriers, as it's been reported. But again, looking at overall capacity for the industry, number of service centers is the best thing we have that books to be down versus about 6%. And there may be some service centers that were swapped adding a few more doors, but I think that's a good proxy for capacity that's been removed from the market.

是的。據報道，我認為許多服務中心最終都落入了私人業者手中。但再說一遍，從整個產業的整體產能來看，服務中心的數量是我們目前掌握的最好的數據，預計會下降約 6%。可能有些服務中心進行了更換，增加了一些門，但我認為這可以很好地代表市場上減少的產能。

So again, if you had a capacity-constrained industry back in '21 and '22, the number of shipments per day per service center are the same in 2024 with where we were back in that capacity-constrained environment. I think we're going to see capacity constraints when we start coming back into a stronger demand environment. And that's what gives us the confidence that we'll be able to win market share and outperform the other carriers from a volume standpoint in the early stages of that recovery.

所以，如果 2021 年和 2022 年的產業產能受限，那麼 2024 年每個服務中心每天的出貨量與我們在產能受限環境下的情況相同。我認為，隨著需求環境的逐步恢復，我們將面臨產能限制的問題。正是這一點讓我們有信心，在復甦初期，我們將能夠贏得市場份額，並在運能方面超越其他業者。

Stephanie Moore, Jefferies.

Stephanie Moore，傑富瑞集團。

I wanted to maybe circle back to a prior question that was asked where you kind of talked through a bottoms-up analysis of talking with customers and maybe some of the slightly more optimistic conversations you're hearing from them. Is there any way you can parse out the end markets or if there's any concentration of end markets where you're hearing some of that optimism from customers, whether it's within industrial, is it large infrastructure kind of data center plays? Is it within consumer? Any additional insight would be really appreciated.

我想回到之前您提出的一個問題，您在問題中自下而上地分析了與客戶的溝通，以及您從他們那裡聽到的一些稍微樂觀一些的對話。有沒有辦法分析終端市場，或者說，你是否從客戶那裡聽到了一些樂觀情緒，例如在工業領域，還是在大型基礎設施（如資料中心）領域？是否在消費者內部？非常感謝您的任何補充意見。

Well, 55% to 60% of our revenue is industrial related, and I think that's similar for the industry. It's why I assume it's so highly correlated with the industry volumes. So kind of hearing it across the board. I think that seeing some improvement there. We've had feedback that inventories have generally been lower. So we're thinking that we're going to see some inventory replenishment. But I think it's sort of different factors for different customers. And our business is so diversified. We move everything, including the kitchen sink. So you've got -- if housing starts improving, you'll see things like faucets and so forth that will have increased demand there.

嗯，我們55%到60%的收入都與工業有關，我認為整個產業的情況也差不多。所以我認為它與行業交易量高度相關。所以，我幾乎聽到了所有相關的說法。我覺得這方面有改善。我們收到回饋，庫存普遍偏低。所以我們認為庫存會有所補充。但我認為對於不同的顧客來說，影響因素會有所不同。我們的業務非常多元化。我們把所有東西都搬走了，包括廚房水槽。所以，如果住房條件開始改善，那麼像水龍頭之類的東西的需求就會增加。

And obviously, all of the products that go into someone moving into a new home. But I think that will be important to see some continued improvement there. If we continue to see on the industrial side, at the end of the day, what drives it all as a healthy consumer. And so consumer confidence and consumer strength and buying patterns will drive whether or not we see sustained improvement in the demand and volume environment. And so hopefully, when people start seeing if tax returns look better and they've got more discretionary income to go spend, and then inventory does need to be replenished. Those will all be good things that will create freight that will find its way on our trucks, and we're looking forward to it.

當然，還有所有搬進新家所需的物品。但我認為這對於看到這方面持續改進至關重要。如果我們繼續從工業方面來看，歸根結底，這一切的驅動力在於健康的消費者。因此，消費者信心、消費者實力和購買模式將決定我們是否能看到需求和銷售環境的持續改善。因此，希望當人們開始看到報稅表的情況好轉，並且有更多可支配收入可以消費時，庫存就需要補充了。這些都是好事，它們會帶來更多的貨物，最終會透過我們的卡車運輸，我們對此充滿期待。

Christopher Kuhn, Benchmark.

克里斯托弗·庫恩，基準。

It's -- you guys don't talk about it as much, but are there any AI initiatives that you are kind of undertaking in the next 2026 and beyond that we should be focused on?

你們不太常談論人工智慧，但是你們在 2026 年及以後是否有任何人工智慧方面的計劃是我們應該關注的？

Yes. I would put it in the broader context of technology investments. And obviously, AI is kind of the buzzword at the moment, and we've got some investment there that's going into some of the tools. But I think from a bigger picture standpoint, when you think about Old Dominion, I think the investment that we've made in technology, it goes back decades. And we've got OD technology as one of our branded products. And so we've been at the forefront of tech investment, I think, for years and years, and that will be no different going forward. But there's got to be investment that's going to end up with a return. We don't want to just say we're investing in machine learning and AI, just to be able to say it, where is the proof in the pudding.

是的。我會把它放在更廣泛的技術投資背景下看待。顯然，人工智慧目前是一個熱門詞彙，我們也對一些相關工具進行了一些投資。但從更宏觀的角度來看，當你想到老道明大學時，我認為我們對科技的投資可以追溯到幾十年前。OD技術是我們自有品牌產品之一。因此，我認為，多年來我們一直處於科技投資的前沿，未來也不會例外。但總得有投資最終獲得回報吧。我們不想只是為了說而說，我們在投資機器學習和人工智慧，但實際成果在哪裡呢？

And I think when you look at our cost performance, in 2025, that's kind of the proof. And we wouldn't have been able to manage our line-haul costs like we have. If we've not continued to invest in and refine the tools that our teams are using. And it's the same thing on the dock. It's the same thing within our pickup delivery operations.

我認為，看看我們 2025 年的成本效益，就能證明這一點。我們原本不可能像現在這樣控制幹線運輸成本。如果我們沒有持續投資和改進團隊使用的工具。碼頭上的情況也一樣。我們的取貨配送業務也是如此。

We've got to continue to make investments in products that are going to have a return associated with them. You don't want to invest in something that's going to cost you more on a technology that you would other -- what you're going to save potentially and sometimes that could be the case. But I think that our focus will continue to be what I just said, investing where it's going to drive operating efficiencies.

我們必須繼續投資那些能夠帶來回報的產品。你不想投資一項技術，結果卻花費更多，而你本可以節省更多——有時情況確實如此。但我認為，我們的重點仍將是我剛才所說的，也就是投資能夠提高營運效率的領域。

The other key part, though, will be continue to invest and something that drives a strategic advantage from a customer service standpoint. So if we can continue to try to stay ahead of the game, have systems that drive stickier customer relationships, those are kind of the two big key factors that we think about when we think about the dollars that are invested in tech initiatives year in and year out.

但另一個關鍵部分是繼續投資，並採取能夠從客戶服務角度帶來策略優勢的措施。因此，如果我們能夠繼續努力保持領先地位，擁有能夠促進更牢固的客戶關係的系統，那麼這就是我們每年在考慮投資於技術計劃的資金時所考慮的兩個主要關鍵因素。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Marty Freeman for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我謹將會議交還給馬蒂·弗里曼，請他作總結發言。

Thank you all for your participation today. We appreciate your questions. And please feel free to give us a call later if you have anything further. Thanks, and have a great day.

感謝各位今天的參與。感謝您的提問。如果您還有其他問題，請隨時打電話給我們。謝謝，祝您今天過得愉快。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議已經結束。感謝各位參加今天的報告會。您現在可以斷開連線了。