奧多明尼昂貨運 (ODFL) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to the Old Dominion Freight Line second-quarter 2025 earning conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Jack Atkins, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

早安，歡迎參加 Old Dominion Freight Line 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，此事件正在被記錄。現在我想將會議交給投資者關係總監傑克·阿特金斯 (Jack Atkins)。請繼續。

Thank you, Wyatt. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the second quarter of 2025 conference call for Old Dominion Freight Line. Today's call is being recorded and will be available for replay beginning today and through August 6, 2025, by dialing 1 (877) 344-7529, access code 8056479. The replay of the webcast may also be accessed for 30 days at the company's website.

謝謝你，懷亞特。大家早安，歡迎參加 Old Dominion Freight Line 2025 年第二季電話會議。今天的通話將會被錄音，從今天開始到 2025 年 8 月 6 日期間均可重播，請撥打 1 (877) 344-7529，接入碼 8056479。您也可以在該公司的網站上觀看網路直播的重播，為期 30 天。

This conference call may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements, among others, regarding Old Dominion's expected financial and operating performance. For this purpose, any statements made during this call that are not statements of historical fact may be deemed to be forward-looking statements. Without limiting the foregoing, the words believes, anticipates, plans, expects, and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements.

本次電話會議可能包含《1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法案》所定義的前瞻性陳述，其中包括有關 Old Dominion 預期財務和營運績效的陳述。為此，本次電話會議中所做的任何非歷史事實陳述均可視為前瞻性陳述。在不限制前述內容的情況下，相信、預期、計劃、期望等詞語和類似表達旨在識別前瞻性陳述。

You're cautioned that these statements may be affected by the important factors, among others, set forth in Old Dominion's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission and in this morning's news release. And consequently, actual operations and results may differ materially from the results discussed in the forward-looking statements. The company undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise.

請注意，這些聲明可能會受到 Old Dominion 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件和今天上午的新聞稿中列出的重要因素的影響。因此，實際營運和結果可能與前瞻性陳述中討論的結果有重大差異。無論是由於新資訊、未來事件或其他原因，本公司均不承擔公開更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務。

As a final note before we begin, we welcome your questions today, but ask that you limit yourself to just one question at a time before returning to the queue.

在我們開始之前最後要說的是，我們歡迎您今天提問，但要求您在返回隊列之前每次只限於一個問題。

At this time for opening remarks, I would like to turn the conference over to Old Dominion's President and Chief Executive Officer, Marty Freeman. Marty, please go ahead.

現在，在開幕致詞時，我想將會議交給 Old Dominion 總裁兼執行長 Marty Freeman。馬蒂，請繼續。

Good morning and welcome to our second quarter conference call. With me on the call today is Adam Satterfield, our CFO. After some brief remarks, we would be glad to take your questions.

早上好，歡迎參加我們的第二季電話會議。今天與我一起參加電話會議的是我們的財務長亞當‧薩特菲爾德 (Adam Satterfield)。簡短發言後，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

Old Dominion's second quarter financial results reflect continued softness in the domestic economy. Although our revenue decreased in the quarter due to a decline in our volumes, our yields improved as our best-in-class service continues to support our disciplined approach to pricing. I want to thank our outstanding team for their unwavering dedication to our customers and continued commitment to executing the core elements of our long-term strategic plan.

老道明大學第二季的財務表現反映出國內經濟持續疲軟。儘管由於銷量下降，本季度我們的收入有所下降，但由於我們一流的服務繼續支持我們嚴謹的定價方法，我們的收益率有所提高。我要感謝我們優秀的團隊，感謝他們對客戶的堅定奉獻以及對執行我們長期策略計畫核心要素的持續承諾。

Although the challenging economic environment has persisted for longer than we anticipated, we have remained focused on what we can control as we work to ensure Old Dominion continues to deliver superior service to our customers while also operating efficiently. In addition, our ongoing investments in our network, technology, and our OD family of employees puts us in an unparalleled position to respond to an inflection in demand when it materializes.

儘管充滿挑戰的經濟環境持續時間比我們預期的要長，但我們仍然專注於我們能夠控制的事情，努力確保 Old Dominion 繼續為客戶提供優質服務，同時高效運作。此外，我們對網路、技術和 OD 員工隊伍的持續投資使我們處於無與倫比的地位，能夠在需求變化時做出反應。

Delivering superior service at a fair price to our customers is the cornerstone of our strategic plan and has been central to our success for many, many years. Doing so consistently through the ups and downs of the economic cycle has strengthened our customer relationships over time and allowed us to keep our market share relatively consistent over the extended period of slower economic activity. As a result, we were pleased to once again provide our customers with 99% on-time performance and a cargo claims ratio of 0.1% in the second quarter.

以合理的價格向客戶提供優質的服務是我們策略計畫的基石，也是我們多年來成功的關鍵。在經濟週期的起伏中始終如一地這樣做，隨著時間的推移，我們與客戶的關係得到了加強，並且使我們能夠在經濟活動放緩的長期內保持相對穩定的市場份額。因此，我們很高興在第二季再次為客戶提供 99% 的準點率和 0.1% 的貨物索賠率。

This consistency of our execution and our commitment to creating value for our customers doesn't happen by accident. It is a product of our unique culture and the result of hard work of the OD family of employees. Across our company, our team is focused every day on adding value for our customers. By keeping our promises to our customers, we help them create value for their own customers.

我們的執行力和為客戶創造價值的承諾並非偶然。這是我們獨特文化的產物，也是 OD 員工辛勤工作的成果。在整個公司，我們的團隊每天都致力於為客戶增加價值。透過信守對客戶的承諾，我們幫助他們為自己的客戶創造價值。

Our commitment to service excellence continues to support our long-term yield management initiatives with a focus on individual account level profitability, our approach to pricing is designed to offset cost inflation and support our ongoing investments and our network, our fleet, and our people.

我們對卓越服務的承諾將繼續支持我們的長期收益管理計劃，重點關注個人帳戶層面的盈利能力，我們的定價方法旨在抵消成本通膨並支持我們持續的投資以及我們的網絡、我們的車隊和我們的員工。

Allthough these investments have created headwinds to our profitability in the short term, we are confident that our consistent reinvestment back into our business for growth is the right long term approach.

儘管這些投資在短期內對我們的獲利能力造成了阻力，但我們相信，持續不斷地將投資重新投入到我們的業務中以實現成長是正確的長期方針。

We know that having available capacity to grow with our customers and support them during periods of stronger demand is an important component of our value proposition. We also believe that these investments are critical to stay ahead of what we expect to be favorable long-term demand trends for our industry.

我們知道，擁有與客戶共同成長並在需求強勁時期為他們提供支援的能力是我們價值主張的重要組成部分。我們也認為，這些投資對於我們行業維持長期有利的需求趨勢至關重要。

I'm very proud of our team and how they continue to find ways to reduce costs and operate as efficiently as possible during the period of uncertain demand. Given that our first priority is to uphold our commitment to delivering superior service to our customers, it can lead to increased operating costs due to the loss of operating density when volumes do decrease.

我為我們的團隊感到非常自豪，他們如何在需求不確定的時期繼續尋找降低成本並盡可能高效運作的方法。鑑於我們的首要任務是履行為客戶提供優質服務的承諾，當業務量減少時，營運密度的損失可能會導致營運成本的增加。

While that was the case in the second quarter, we continue to believe that our business model contains meaningful operating leverage, and we remain confident in our ability to improve our operating ratio over the long term. We expect this to become more apparent as the demand environment improves, and we are able to leverage our investments in our fleet, our service network, and our technology.

儘管第二季的情況確實如此，但我們仍然相信我們的商業模式包含有意義的營運槓桿，並且我們仍然對我們長期提高營運比率的能力充滿信心。我們預計，隨著需求環境的改善，這一點將變得更加明顯，並且我們能夠利用我們對車隊、服務網路和技術的投資。

Over time, our customers have recognized the value of our service by giving us more of their business, which has allowed us to win more market share over the last decade than any other LTL carrier. Looking forward, we believe that the consistency of our execution, unique culture, and our teams of daily commitment to excellence will allow us to be the biggest market share winner over the next decade as well.

隨著時間的推移，我們的客戶已經認識到我們服務的價值，並給予我們更多的業務，這使得我們在過去十年中比任何其他零擔承運商贏得了更多的市場份額。展望未來，我們相信，我們執行力的一致性、獨特的文化以及我們團隊對卓越的日常承諾將使我們在未來十年成為最大的市場份額贏家。

Our position is as strong as ever to respond to an improvement in the demand environment. As a result, we are confident in our ability to produce profitable revenue growth and drive increased shareholder value over the long term.

我們的地位一如既往地強大，能夠因應需求環境的改善。因此，我們對自己實現獲利收入成長和長期股東價值提升的能力充滿信心。

Thank you very much for joining us this morning. And now, Adam will discuss our second quarter in greater detail.

非常感謝您今天早上加入我們。現在，亞當將更詳細地討論我們的第二季。

Thank you, Marty, and good morning. Old Dominion's revenues totaled $1.41 billion for the second quarter of 2025 which was a 6.1% decrease from the prior year. Our revenue results reflect a 9.3% decrease in LTL tonnes per day that was partially offset by a 3.4% increase in the LTL revenue per hundredweight.

謝謝你，馬蒂，早安。2025 年第二季度，Old Dominion 的總收入為 14.1 億美元，比前一年下降 6.1%。我們的收入結果反映出每日零擔噸數下降了 9.3%，但每百磅零擔收入增加了 3.4%，這部分抵消了這一下降。

On a sequential basis, our revenue per day for the second quarter increased 0.8% when compared to the first quarter of 2025 with LTL tonnes per day increasing 0.1% in LTL shipments per day, increasing 0.8%.

以環比計算，與 2025 年第一季相比，我們第二季的每日收入成長了 0.8%，其中每日零擔貨運量增加了 0.1%，每日零擔貨運量增加了 0.8%。

For comparison, the 10-year average sequential change for these metrics includes an increase of 8.2% in revenue per day, an increase of 5.3% in LTL tonnes per day, and an increase of 6.0% in LTL shipments per day.

相較之下，這些指標的 10 年平均連續變化包括每日收入增加 8.2%，每日零擔貨運量增加 5.3%，每日零擔貨運量增加 6.0%。

The monthly sequential changes in the LTL tonnes per day during the second quarter were as follows: April decreased 3.7% as compared to March, May increased 0.5% as compared to April, and June decreased 0.6% as compared to May. The 10-year average change for these respective months is a decrease of 0.7% in April, an increase of 2.5% in May, and an increase of 2.1% in June.

第二季日立噸量月月變動情況為：4月季減3.7%，5月月增0.5%，6月季減0.6%。這幾個月的 10 年平均變化是 4 月下降 0.7%，5 月成長 2.5%，6 月成長 2.1%。

For July, our current month-to-date revenue per day is down 5.1% when compared to July of 2024, with a decrease of 8.5% in our LTL tonnes per day. And as usual, we will provide the actual revenue-related details for July in our second quarter Form 10-Q.

就 7 月而言，與 2024 年 7 月相比，我們目前的月度每日收入下降了 5.1%，每日零擔貨運量下降了 8.5%。和往常一樣，我們將在第二季的 10-Q 表中提供 7 月份的實際收入相關詳細資訊。

Our operating ratio increased 270 basis points to 74.6% for the second quarter of 2025 as the decrease in our revenue had a deleveraging effect on many of our operating expenses. This contributed to the 160-basis-point increase in the overhead cost as a percent of revenue.

由於收入的減少對我們的許多營運費用產生了去槓桿效應，我們的營運比率在 2025 年第二季增加了 270 個基點，達到 74.6%。這導致管理費用佔收入的百分比增加了 160 個基點。

Within our overhead cost, depreciation as a percent of revenue, increased 80 basis points, while our miscellaneous expenses increased 40 basis points. The increase in depreciation cost as a percent of revenue reflects the ongoing execution of our long-term capital expenditure program, which we believe will support our ability to grow with customers in the years ahead.

在我們的間接費用中，折舊佔收入的百分比增加了 80 個基點，而我們的雜費增加了 40 個基點。折舊成本佔收入的百分比增加反映了我們長期資本支出計畫的持續執行，我們相信這將支持我們在未來幾年與客戶共同成長的能力。

Our direct operating cost also increased as a percent of revenue despite our team's best efforts to manage these variable costs. The 110-basis-point increase in these costs was primarily due to higher expenses associated with our group health and dental plans. As a result, our employee benefit costs increased to 39.5% of salaries and wages during the second quarter of 2025, from 37.2% in the same period as the prior year.

儘管我們的團隊盡最大努力管理這些變動成本，但我們的直接營運成本佔收入的百分比也增加了。這些成本增加 110 個基點主要是由於與我們的團體健康和牙科計劃相關的費用增加。因此，我們的員工福利成本從去年同期的 37.2% 增加到 2025 年第二季薪資和薪水的 39.5%。

Overall, we continue to be pleased with how our team has remained focused on controlling what we can until the demand environment improves. The OD team has continued to deliver best-in-class service while operating very efficiently. And we've also managed our discretionary spending. We will, however, continue to make the investments that we believe are necessary to ensure that our business remains well-positioned for the long term.

總體而言，我們仍然對我們的團隊如何始終專注於控制我們所能控制的事情直到需求環境改善感到滿意。OD 團隊在高效運作的同時，繼續提供一流的服務。我們也管理了可自由支配的開支。然而，我們將繼續進行我們認為必要的投資，以確保我們的業務長期保持良好地位。

Old Dominion's cash flow from operations totaled $285.9 million for the second quarter and $622.4 million for the first six months 2025, respectively. Our capital expenditures were $187.2 million and $275.3 million for those same periods.

Old Dominion 2025 年第二季的經營現金流總計 2.859 億美元，2025 年前六個月的經營現金流總計 6.224 億美元。同一時期，我們的資本支出分別為 1.872 億美元和 2.753 億美元。

We utilize $223.5 million and $424.6 million of cash for our share repurchase program during the second quarter and the first six months of 2025, respectively. While our cash dividends totaled $59.0 million and $118.5 million for those same periods.

我們分別在 2025 年第二季和前六個月利用 2.235 億美元和 4.246 億美元現金用於我們的股票回購計畫。而同期我們的現金股利總額分別為 5,900 萬美元及 1.185 億美元。

Our effective tax rate for the second quarter of 2025 was 24.8%, as compared to 24.5% in the second quarter of 2024. We currently expect our effective tax rate will be 24.8% for the third quarter.

我們 2025 年第二季的有效稅率為 24.8%，而 2024 年第二季的有效稅率為 24.5%。我們目前預計第三季的有效稅率為 24.8%。

This concludes our prepared remarks this morning. Operator, we'll be happy to open the floor for questions at this time.

今天上午我們的準備演講到此結束。接線員，我們很高興現在開始回答問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Chris Wetherbee, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的克里斯‧韋瑟比。

Thanks. Good morning, guys, Appreciate the comments. Maybe we could just start with your thoughts around the operating ratio. Obviously, it's a challenging environment from a tonnage perspective, at least, year-over-year. How do you think about sort of the normal progression from 2Q to 3Q on the OR, maybe how you feel like you can fair given the circumstances we're in from a macro backdrop?

謝謝。大家早安，感謝您的評論。也許我們可以從您對營運比率的想法開始。顯然，從噸位角度來看，至少與去年同期相比，這是一個充滿挑戰的環境。您如何看待 OR 從第二季到第三季的正常進展，從宏觀背景來看，考慮到我們所處的情況，您覺得情況如何？

Sure. Yeah. The tenure averages for us is typically flat to up 50 basis points, from the second quarter to the third. But that's typically based on sequential revenue growth of about 3%, which is what we typically see. So obviously, given the demand environment, what you just said, we're not really seeing that positive inflection yet, unfortunately, with our revenue this year.

當然。是的。從第二季到第三季度，我們的任期平均值通常持平或上漲 50 個基點。但這通常是基於約 3% 的連續收入成長，這也是我們通常看到的。因此，顯然，考慮到需求環境，正如您剛才所說，不幸的是，我們今年的收入還沒有真正看到積極的變化。

So I'm kind of thinking that revenue per day, if it continues to stay flattish on a per day basis pretty much what we saw in the second quarter, if that continues into the third, that we'll probably see an increase in the operating ratio somewhere in the 80- to 120-basis- point type range. So a little worse than what our normal sequential change would be.

因此，我認為，如果每日收入繼續保持與我們在第二季度看到的大致相同的水平，並且這種狀態持續到第三季度，那麼我們可能會看到營業比率在 80 到 120 個基點的範圍內增加。因此，這比我們正常的連續變化要差一些。

But just a couple things to point out for that. I'm expecting that we'll see an increase in our salary wages and benefits line. And some of that, as you know, we give a wage increase at September 1 every year. So that's always in there, but we typically have that revenue that offsets a little bit.

但有幾點需要指出。我預計我們的薪資和福利將會增加。如您所知，我們每年 9 月 1 日都會增加部分員工的薪資。所以這總是存在的，但我們的收入通常會有所抵消。

But I'm also expecting that we'll see continued pressure with our fringe benefit costs. So I'm thinking that that will be part of the driver. I also think that we'll see our operating supplies and expenses will probably tick up a little bit.

但我也預期我們的福利成本將持續面臨壓力。所以我認為這將成為驅動因素的一部分。我還認為，我們的營運供應和支出可能會略有增加。

And our overhead cost, that was something -- they were higher in the the second quarter than what I initially expected, and yeah, we talked about that a lot, but I'm expecting that our overhead costs in aggregate will be up a little bit further in the third quarter. They were about $310 million in the second quarter we've been running about $305 million. So I'm expecting that we'll see those tick up even further in the third quarter. Probably some pressure in the miscellaneous expenses line will continue.

我們的間接費用在第二季比我最初預期的要高，是的，我們討論過很多次這個問題，但我預計我們的間接費用總額在第三季會進一步上升。第二季我們的營運額約為 3.1 億美元，目前約為 3.05 億美元。所以我預計第三季這數字還會進一步上升。雜費方面的壓力可能還會持續下去。

But obviously, the overhead cost is revenue dependent, so I'm anticipating if it's flattish revenue, then those costs will take up a little bit further. But if we can see some revenue start to come in a little bit better and obviously, we'll continue to give our mid-quarter update, then that's something that eventually over time we'll get leverage on.

但顯然，間接成本取決於收入，因此我預計，如果收入持平，那麼這些成本將會進一步增加。但如果我們看到一些收入開始好轉，而且顯然我們將繼續提供季度中期更新，那麼隨著時間的推移，我們最終將獲得槓桿作用。

Eric Morgan, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的艾瑞克摩根。

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to ask about the market share commentary, just if we look at the ATAs shipment index, it actually turned positive the past couple of months, at least for April and May. So I don't know if that's kind of the best data to use, but it's what we have. And obviously, it's a bit different from what we're seeing from you as well as your publicly traded peers. So I guess just curious if you have any thoughts on what's happening among the private carriers where we have kind of less real-time insight how they've been responding to this downturn that's changed at all in recent months and just how you get your competitive positioning here.

早安.感謝您回答我的問題。我想問一下市場份額的評論，如果我們看一下 ATA 出貨量指數，它實際上在過去幾個月裡轉為正值，至少在 4 月和 5 月是這樣。所以我不知道這是否是最好的數據，但這就是我們所擁有的。顯然，這與我們從您以及您的上市公司同行那裡看到的東西有些不同。所以我只是好奇，您是否對私營航空公司的情況有什麼看法？我們對他們如何應對近幾個月來發生的經濟衰退的即時了解較少，以及您如何在這裡獲得競爭地位。

Yeah. The best data that we probably get from an industry standpoint, that includes the private carriers. It's really from transport topics and so that's the data you'll see most typically quoted in the 10-K about the size of the industry and so forth. And so you'll really only get an annual read on some of those carriers without the month-to-month trends. And the ATA is good, but I think it typically, as always, had a much higher report of revenue for the entire industry and it includes a (inaudible) ground business from some of the other parcel carriers. So that's why we typically use transfer topics.

是的。從行業角度來看，我們可能獲得的最佳數據包括私人承運商。它實際上來自運輸主題，因此，這是您在 10-K 中最常看到的有關行業規模等的數據。因此，您實際上只能獲得一些運營商的年度數據，而無法獲得月度趨勢數據。ATA 很好，但我認為它通常一如既往地報告整個行業的收入要高得多，它還包括來自其他一些包裹承運商的（聽不清楚）地面業務。這就是我們通常使用轉移主題的原因。

But I think when we look at that information and transport topics just published recently and we saw pretty consistent trend from market share for us and we've got granular level detail that we get through proprietary database that's out there as well. And overall, I'd like to think that our market share, when you look through this downturn in our strategy is that we want to maintain market share and periods of economic weakness while also getting increases in our yields.

但我認為，當我們查看最近發布的資訊和運輸主題時，我們會發現市場份額呈現出相當一致的趨勢，而且我們還可以透過現有的專有資料庫獲得詳細資訊。總的來說，我認為我們的市場份額，當你回顧這次經濟衰退時，我們的策略是，我們希望在經濟疲軟時期保持市場份額，同時提高收益率。

And I think when we go back and look at kind of where things were and in '21, '22, that's effectively what's happened. And it always moves up or down, a little bit here and there. But the key will be continuing to execute our strategy like we've done in the past. And then, make kay while the sun is shining. I mean, that's what our model is based on.

我認為，當我們回顧 2021 年和 2022 年的情況時，就會發現情況確實如此。它總是會上下移動一點點。但關鍵是要像過去一樣繼續執行我們的策略。然後，趁著陽光明媚，開開心心地去吧。我的意思是，這就是我們的模型所基於的。

I still feel like we're in a better position than anyone else and the demand environment does eventually reflect back to the positive and I think we're probably better positioned than we've ever been in. But if you think back to the cycle increases that we saw in 2014, 2015, same thing with 2017 and 2018, we've been able to outperform the market from a tonnage growth standpoint, anywhere from 1,000 to 1,200 basis points.

我仍然覺得我們比其他任何人都處於更有利的地位，需求環境最終會反映出積極的一面，我認為我們可能比以往任何時候都處於更有利的地位。但如果回想一下我們在 2014 年、2015 年看到的週期性成長，2017 年和 2018 年也是如此，從噸位成長的角度來看，我們已經能夠超越市場，從 1,000 到 1,200 個基點不等。

So we just need a little help from the economy to get back to where we really see that demand environment reflecting back to the positive and obviously, some macro factors are starting to settle a little bit with respect to the tax bill, trade. Hopefully, at some point soon, we'll get an interest rate decrease. Once some of those measures and certainty come back into the market, it will create opportunities for our customers that will create opportunities for us to start growing our volumes again.

因此，我們只需要經濟方面的一點幫助，就能回到我們真正看到的需求環境反映出正面跡象的狀態，而且顯然，一些宏觀因素在稅收法案、貿易方面開始有所穩定。希望在不久的將來，利率能夠降低。一旦這些措施和確定性重新回到市場，它將為我們的客戶創造機會，也將為我們再次開始增加銷售量創造機會。

Jonathan Chappell, Evercore ISI.

喬納森‧查佩爾 (Jonathan Chappell)，Evercore ISI。

Thank you. Good morning. Adam, one of the things you mentioned in response to Chris's question, would you expect pressure on operating supplies and expenses, (inaudible) the same thing in April and operating expenses actually improved 5 basis points as a percentage of revenue in 2Qs. So did something happen in 2Q that really helped you on that cost line item that you expect to reverse in 3Q? Or how do we kind of match up the pretty big sequential improvement in 2Q to ongoing pressure expected in 3Q?

謝謝。早安.亞當，您在回答克里斯的問題時提到的一件事是，您是否預計營運供應和費用會面臨壓力，（聽不清楚）4 月份的情況相同，而營運費用在第二季度佔收入的百分比實際上提高了 5 個基點。那麼，第二季是否發生了一些事情，對您預計在第三季扭轉的成本項目有真正的幫助？或者我們如何將第二季相當大的連續改善與第三季預期的持續壓力相匹配？

Yeah. I would say that we continue to to see really good performance from our repairs and maintenance. Our team has done a great job with managing those costs. And I had the expectation that we would see some pressures there from 1Q to 2Q, anticipating that some of our part costs might be increasing due to the impact of tariffs and so forth.

是的。我想說的是，我們的維修和保養工作繼續取得了非常好的成績。我們的團隊在管理這些成本方面做得非常出色。我預計從第一季到第二季我們會看到一些壓力，預計我們的部分零件成本可能會因關稅等因素的影響而增加。

But I think what we've seen is just some continued changes with our fleet. We continue to take some of our older equipment out that would have had really high repair costs, if you will. And so we've continued to pair back some of our fleet in that example. And then just in general, our cost per mile, we've seen improvement this year.

但我認為，我們所看到的只是我們的艦隊的一些持續變化。我們繼續淘汰一些維修成本非常高昂的老舊設備。因此，我們在這個例子中繼續削減了部分船隊。總體而言，今年我們的每英里成本有所改善。

And if you go back the last few years, we're up double digits from a cost per mile standpoint in '22 and '23. So I think that was some of the better sequential performance that we had, if you will, from 1Q to 2Q. I'd say part of that driver that I'm thinking from 2Q to 3Q, right now, or at least in the second quarter, our average price per gallon for fuel was like $3.56 and we're seeing that elevated right now.

如果回顧過去幾年，從 2022 年和 2023 年的每英里成本來看，我們已經上漲了兩位數。因此，我認為這是我們從第一季到第二季取得的一些較好的連續表現。我想說，我認為從第二季度到第三季度，或至少在第二季度，部分驅動因素是，我們每加侖燃油的平均價格為 3.56 美元，我們現在看到這一價格正在上漲。

So I think that's something where those costs as a percent of revenue, if you'll kind of continues to hold it about the range where we are now, fuel's obviously a big driver in that operating supplies and expense line.

因此，我認為，如果將這些成本佔收入的百分比保持在目前的範圍內，那麼燃料顯然是營運供應和費用線中的重要驅動因素。

Historically, what you'll see and probably to comment on why I wanted to get both of those together, we always talk about as fuel changes, usually, you'll see corresponding increase. I'd like to look at our direct cost in total and how we've managed through those. So in the short term, if you see if the fuel surcharge goes up, our fuel expenses as a percent of revenue might also go up. But you would see the direct labor cost, in particular, kind of an offsetting decrease there.

從歷史上看，您會看到什麼，以及我為什麼想將這兩者結合起來，我們總是談論燃料的變化，通常，您會看到相應的增加。我想看看我們的直接成本總額以及我們是如何應對這些成本的。因此，從短期來看，如果燃油附加費上漲，那麼我們的燃油費用佔收入的百分比也可能會上漲。但你會看到直接勞動成本，特別是直接勞動成本，出現了一種抵銷性的下降。

And typically, the second quarter to third quarter too, that's where you kind of see those costs all in or kind of flattish, if you will. But I'm expecting to see some continued pressure there and at the salary wages and benefits line. Somewhat like I mentioned, we've got the wage increase. We'll get one month of that for the full quarter.

通常，在第二季到第三季度，你會看到這些成本全部下降或持平。但我預計那裡以及薪資和福利方面仍將面臨一些持續的壓力。正如我所提到的，我們的薪水增加了。我們將獲得整個季度中的一個月的收益。

Typically, we have a little bit of sequential revenue growth that will help offset that. And we may still have that for this coming quarter if we've got flattish revenue growth and that puts a little pressure on that line item. But we've also seen higher fringe benefit costs for the past three quarters and I'm expecting that trend to continue and to probably be even a little bit higher in the third quarter than what we just saw in the second. So those couple of factors as well as the miscellaneous expenses.

通常情況下，我們的收入會有一些連續的成長，這將有助於抵消這種影響。如果我們的營收成長持平，那麼下個季度我們可能仍會面臨這種情況，這會給該項目帶來一些壓力。但過去三個季度，我們的福利成本也出現了上升，我預計這種趨勢將持續下去，第三季的福利成本可能比第二季度更高。所以這幾個因素以及雜費。

Some of the miscellaneous expenses back to making changes on the fleet, as we've been selling off some older equipment, we've had some losses, and that goes into that line item. So I think we may see some more losses, if you will, coming through on that line item in the third quarter to put a little bit more pressure overall, I'm just saying, that big bucket of overhead cost.

一些雜項費用用於對車隊進行改造，因為我們一直在出售一些舊設備，我們遭受了一些損失，這些損失都計入了該項目。因此，我認為我們可能會看到更多的損失，如果你願意的話，第三季的那項開支將為整體帶來更大的壓力，我只是說，那一大筆間接費用。

Jordan Alliger, Goldman Sachs.

喬丹·阿利格，高盛。

So just sort of curious sort of you gave some color and commentary around the OR revenue per day sort of flattish. I mean given the easy comps, I think, that are coming up, both in terms of tonnage per day and revenue per day. I'm assuming as we look forward from July, those trends on a year-over-year basis, I would think have the opportunity to get quite a bit better, but just curious your thoughts on the latter half of this quarter against those comps.

所以我只是有點好奇，您是否對 OR 每日收入的平穩情況給出了一些解釋和評論。我的意思是，考慮到即將出現的簡單比較，我認為，無論是以每天的噸位還是每天的收入來計算。我認為，從 7 月開始展望，這些趨勢與去年同期相比，有機會變得更好，但我只是好奇您對本季後半段與這些同類產品相比的看法。

Yes, they would, Jordan. In the second quarter, for the full quarter, we were down, just call it, 6%, 6.1%. Right now, I would say, July, just call it, were down 5%. So it's already getting a little bit better. If we stay -- the second quarter per day average was about $22 million revenue per day.

是的，他們會的，喬丹。在第二季度，整個季度，我們的銷售額下降了，可以說下降了 6%、6.1%。現在，我想說，7 月份，就這麼說吧，下降了 5%。所以情況已經好轉了。如果我們繼續下去——第二季每天的平均收入約為 2200 萬美元。

So if we stay in that same ballpark, then we'd be down a little over 4%. If you just sort of held revenue at that $1.4 billion that we just did in the second quarter, if you say that was exactly the same, that's kind of what the trend would be.

因此，如果我們保持相同的水平，那麼我們的下降幅度將略高於 4%。如果您將第二季的收入維持在 14 億美元，如果您說這完全一樣，那麼趨勢就是這樣。

Now I'll say that the July performance so far when I look at kind of where our tons are and just the revenue per day level, July is normally a weak month from a tons per day standpoint, we're usually down about 3% versus June. We're trending down about a little over 2% right now. So we're a little bit better than what our normal sequential trend is.

現在我要說的是，從 7 月迄今為止的表現來看，當我查看我們的噸位情況和每日收入水平時，從每日噸位的角度來看，7 月通常是一個疲軟的月份，通常比 6 月下降約 3%。目前，我們的下降趨勢略高於 2%。因此，我們的表現比正常的連續趨勢要好一些。

Now I'm not ready to make a call to say that things will turn around and we'll get the acceleration that we typically would see in August and September. But I think that gives us a little bit sense of cautious optimism to say it's outperformance kind of on the downside while we see some of that acceleration come through. I think that remains the question. And I think it will get answered as we go through the quarter and we give our mid-quarter updates and so forth. So if we were to perform at normal seasonality, and I think that's a big if right now, I'm not saying that, that would be a case then that number would come back more in comparison to revenue with the third quarter last year.

現在我還沒準備好宣布情況將會好轉，我們將會獲得通常在八月和九月看到的加速發展。但我認為這給了我們一點謹慎樂觀的感覺，說它在下行方面表現優異，同時我們看到一些加速的跡象。我認為這仍然是個問題。我認為，隨著我們度過這個季度並提供季度中期更新等，這個問題將會得到解答。因此，如果我們按照正常的季節性來表現，我認為現在這是一個很大的假設，我不是說，那將是一個情況，那麼與去年第三季的收入相比，這個數字將會回升更多。

I think that full seasonality, we'd be down about 1.5%. So we'll just continue to monitor it, and maybe we'll be somewhere in that 1.5% to 4%, just depending on how things continue to materialize as we make our way through the quarter.

我認為，從整個季節性來看，我們的銷售額將下降約 1.5%。因此，我們會繼續監控，也許我們會在 1.5% 到 4% 之間，這取決於本季情況如何繼續發展。

Tom Wadewitz, UBS.

瑞銀集團的湯姆‧韋德維茲。

So I wanted to see if you could offer a little more perspective just on pricing and kind of how you think about revenue per hundredweight ex fuel in 3Q. And just whether the pricing, I mean your commentary is pretty consistent over time that you see stability and discipline in the market, but is anything changing on that front? Is there any kind of areas where you see increased competition as the downturn extends? Thanks.

所以我想看看您是否可以提供更多關於定價的觀點，以及您對第三季每英擔燃料收入的看法。至於定價，我的意思是您的評論隨著時間的推移是相當一致的，您看到市場穩定且有紀律，但這方面有什麼變化嗎？隨著經濟衰退的持續，您是否發現哪些領域的競爭會加劇？謝謝。

Yes, I would say, overall, just really we've got to go by whatever one reported in the first quarter. But I think most carriers, the reported yields have continued to be positive overall. And I mean, obviously, we continue to execute on our plan. And I think our plan is different. We look at things from a cost base standpoint, and we want to be consistent through the cycle.

是的，我想說，總的來說，我們必須按照第一季的報告來做。但我認為，對於大多數承運商而言，報告的收益率總體上仍然保持正值。我的意思是，顯然我們會繼續執行我們的計劃。我認為我們的計劃有所不同。我們從成本基礎的角度看待事物，並希望在整個週期中保持一致。

And feel like getting those consistent cost-based increases are obviously important to the long-term operating ratio improvement that we've had. So right now for the third quarter, I'm kind of looking at -- I think that number will probably be that the yield ex fuel will probably be up in the 4% to 4.5% range, and that's about where we are in July.

並且感覺獲得這些基於成本的持續成長對於我們長期的營運比率改善顯然很重要。因此，就目前第三季而言，我正在關注——我認為這個數字可能是燃料收益率可能會上升到 4% 到 4.5% 的範圍內，這大約是 7 月的水平。

So I think we'd expect to see consistent sequential increase in that reported number, but it will probably come in a little bit, and that's not a reflection on any kind of change or anything like that. It's just a function of kind of where we were last year and -- but we continue to expect to see increases, and we're getting increases when we go through renewals. And that's one of the things that's been tough about this environment back to thinking about that market share question from earlier. But as we're going through our renewals, we're continuing to win business. We get reporting for our national accounts, the business that we've won or business that we've lost.

因此，我認為我們預計報告的數字會持續連續增長，但可能會稍微慢一點，這並不反映任何類型的變化或類似情況。這只是我們去年情況的一個函數——但我們仍然期望看到成長，而且當我們進行續約時，我們也會看到成長。這就是在這種環境下遇到的困難之一，讓我們回過頭來思考之前的市佔率問題。但隨著我們不斷進行革新，我們繼續贏得業務。我們會收到國家帳戶的報告，包括我們贏得的業務或失去的業務。

And -- we're continuing to keep customers and get increases on those accounts that we're keeping. But we're also winning some new business.

並且—我們將繼續留住客戶並增加我們所保留的帳戶。但我們也贏得了一些新業務。

Overall, obviously, the volumes are down. But I think that, that wins itself to maybe a quick turnaround, if you will, when we do see that volume environment reflect back to the positive. And I think a lot of people believe that that's coming sooner than later. And obviously, we felt like it was coming before we've had a few head takes from an economic standpoint. But now that some of the bigger picture things are being resolved from a macro standpoint.

總體而言，顯然交易量下降了。但我認為，當我們確實看到成交量環境向正向轉變時，這可能會帶來快速的轉變。我認為很多人都相信這一天很快就會到來。顯然，從經濟角度來看，在我們做出一些改變之前，我們就感覺到它已經到來了。但現在從宏觀角度來看，一些更大的問題正在解決。

I feel like some of the optimism that we saw late last year and kind of saw it in the improvement in ISM in the early part of this year. We hope to see kind of that turn back around on that optimism come back to the market and lend itself to increase freight opportunities. But I think that's part of our value proposition is having capacity. And while capacity is not at a premium right now, just given how weak demand has been for so long, we have heard commentary from customers about some competitors that aren't able to make pickups consistently in some markets. And they're increasingly calling us.

我感覺我們在去年年底看到的一些樂觀情緒在今年年初 ISM 的改善中也得到了體現。我們希望看到這種樂觀情緒重新回到市場，並有助於增加貨運機會。但我認為這是我們價值主張的一部分，即擁有能力。雖然目前產能並不充裕，但考慮到需求長期以來的疲軟，我們聽到客戶評論說，一些競爭對手在某些市場上無法持續生產皮卡。他們越來越多地打電話給我們。

And so I feel like when you have a true demand recovery, those inbound calls will likely accelerate, and that's what we've seen in the past. And I referenced some of those periods earlier, but you go back to 2014 when we grew tons at 17%. The market is up 5%. In '18, we're up 10%, the market is up 1.5%. And what we did through the '21 and '22 cycle, where we put $2 billion of cumulative revenue growth on the books in.

因此，我覺得當需求真正復甦時，這些來電可能會加速，而這就是我們過去所看到的。我之前提到過其中一些時期，但請回顧 2014 年，當時我們的成長率達到了 17%。市場上漲了5%。2018 年，我們上漲了 10%，市場上漲了 1.5%。我們在 21 和 22 週期中所做的就是將累積收入成長 20 億美元。

So we feel like we're sitting in a great position to capitalize. We just need a little bit of help from the economy right now.

因此，我們感覺自己處於一個可以利用這一優勢的有利位置。我們現在只是需要一點經濟上的幫助。

Daniel Imbro, Stephens Inc.

丹尼爾·伊姆布羅，史蒂芬斯公司

Good morning, Marty, Adam, Jack. I hope you're doing well. Adam, maybe following up on that last discussion just on competition out there. I mean, you guys specifically have been a leader in a lot of the high service parts of the industry, whether it's SMB or grocery, kind of anything with the most arrived by date. But a lot of your peers are talking about trying to grow here. So I guess, are you seeing the better offerings from some of your peers making any encouragement on your business as you go to market? And I guess, if not, what do you think the public markets underappreciate about why that will be harder for others to take from you guys being the leader there? Thanks.

早安，馬蒂、亞當、傑克。我希望你一切都好。亞當，也許我想繼續上次關於競爭的討論。我的意思是，你們在許多高服務業領域一直處於領先地位，無論是中小企業還是雜貨店，還是任何按時送達的商品。但很多同行都在談論嘗試在這裡發展。所以我想，當您進入市場時，您是否看到一些同行提供的更好的產品對您的業務有任何鼓勵作用？我想，如果不是的話，您認為公開市場低估了什麼，為什麼其他人很難從你們作為領導者手中奪走這些？謝謝。

No, I think that any customer that we have, obviously, we've got a target on our back, if you will. And -- but we're competing with every account, we're competing with the other carriers, and we have been for years. So I don't think anything has changed with that. I think there's this perception that we've got some secret segment of the market that the other carriers haven't figured out until now. And that's just not the case. I mean we're competing with all the other national carriers in some markets with the regional carriers as well.

不，我認為，如果你願意的話，我們的任何客戶顯然都是我們的目標。而且——但是我們正在與每個帳戶競爭，我們正在與其他運營商競爭，而且我們已經競爭多年了。所以我認為這並沒有發生任何改變。我認為人們有這樣的看法：我們佔據了其他業者至今尚未發現的某個秘密市場。但事實並非如此。我的意思是，在某些市場上，我們也在與所有其他全國性業者和地區性業者競爭。

So our service product, when you think about the 15 years of Mastio wins. There's more to service than just being able to pick up and deliver on time and without damages. And we do those core things better than anyone else, but it's continuing to figure out ways that we can add value to our customers. And ultimately, that's the business that we're in. It's how do we work with our customers, create win-win scenarios where we can help each other and add value.

因此，當您想到 Mastio 15 年的成功時，我們的服務產品就值得稱讚。服務不僅僅是能夠準時、無損壞地取貨和送貨。我們比其他任何人都更擅長做這些核心的事情，但我們仍在繼續尋找為客戶增加價值的方法。最終，這就是我們所從事的業務。這就是我們如何與客戶合作，創造雙贏的局面，互相幫助，增加價值。

And so I think those are the things that we'll continue to look at and leverage. We've got about 12% market share, and there's a tremendous amount of share opportunity out there within an industry that we think continues to have tailwinds for it.

所以我認為這些都是我們會繼續關注和利用的事情。我們的市佔率約為 12%，我們認為該行業仍存在巨大的市場份額機會，並且該行業將繼續保持順風勢。

So we continue to believe that e-commerce effect on supply chains will continue to shrink shipment sizes and have truckload to LTL conversion. I think if near shoring and reshoring opportunities continue to play out that creates inbound and outbound opportunities for us as well. And just supply chain sophistication with the interest rates higher today, there's a cost of carrying inventory. And so that's the value add that we can have where our customers know they can rely on our own time and claims free service. So it's figuring out how to go into each and every customer account, figuring out the problems that they're having and delivering a solution for that customer.

因此，我們仍然相信電子商務對供應鏈的影響將繼續縮小貨運規模，並實現整車運輸向零擔運輸的轉變。我認為，如果近岸外包和回岸外包機會繼續發揮作用，那麼也會為我們創造入境和出境的機會。如今，隨著利率的提高，供應鏈的複雜化也帶來了庫存成本。這就是我們可以提供的附加價值，我們的客戶知道他們可以依賴我們的時間並享受免費服務。因此，需要弄清楚如何進入每個客戶帳戶，找出他們遇到的問題並為該客戶提供解決方案。

That's what we -- I think we do better than anyone else. And -- that's why we're so confident in what our long-term market share opportunities are.

這就是我們——我認為我們比任何人都做得更好。這就是為什麼我們對自己的長期市佔率機會如此有信心。

Hey Daniel, as you referenced in the retail industry, including grocery, there's a penalty if the spread is not on the shelf on time and in full, they're called fines. And many of our competitors, they can go out and talk about meeting those expectations with fancy marketing material and so forth. But until they can stop those fines in our customers' pocket books, nothing is going to change, and we figured out how to do that many, many years ago, especially in the grocery industry. So we don't see anybody getting close to what we can offer from a service standpoint in the retail industry.

嘿，丹尼爾，正如你提到的零售業，包括雜貨店，如果商品沒有按時、足量地上架，就會受到處罰，這被稱為罰款。我們的許多競爭對手可以透過精美的行銷材料等來滿足這些期望。但是，除非他們能夠阻止這些罰款從我們的顧客錢包中扣除，否則什麼都不會改變，而且我們在很多年前就知道如何做到這一點，特別是在食品雜貨行業。因此，從服務角度來看，我們認為在零售業中沒有人能夠提供與我們相媲美的服務。

Ken Hoexter, Bank of America.

美國銀行的肯‧霍克斯特 (Ken Hoexter)。

Great. Good morning, Marty, Adam, Jack. I just want to understand maybe a little bit more on the backdrop here, the stock's down about 8%. Easier comps are coming up, right? Revs are down 5% in July. Do you expect to get that to maybe flat for the quarter? Others reported a deceleration in tons and pricing despite easier comps.

偉大的。早安，馬蒂、亞當、傑克。我只是想進一步了解當時的背景，股價下跌了約 8%。更簡單的比賽即將到來，對吧？7 月收入下降了 5%。您預計本季這數字會持平嗎？其他人則報告稱，儘管同比價格下降，但噸位和價格均下降。

Peer mentioned this morning they're implementing an early GRI. So I think you mentioned a deceleration in yields at 4% to 4.5%. So that's also a deceleration versus history.

Peer 今天早上提到他們正在實施早期 GRI。所以我認為您提到了收益率從 4% 降至 4.5% 的下降。因此，與歷史相比，這也是一種減速。

Are we getting a more competitive environment that just consistently is beating this market while we're in a decelerated market? I just want to understand your view of the backdrop. And then the holding share, I'm still confused by that one because every public carrier reported stronger percentage gains. Does that mean we're looking at just the private guys? I want to revisit that question earlier. Is it just the private guys that are losing relative share? Maybe if you can just expand a little more on that.

當我們處於減速的市場中時，我們是否會獲得一個更競爭的環境，從而持續擊敗這個市場？我只是想了解你對背景的看法。然後是控股份額，我仍然對此感到困惑，因為每家公共航空公司都報告了更強勁的百分比漲幅。這是否意味著我們只關注私人？我想早點重新討論一下這個問題。是不是只有私人企業在失去相對份額？也許你可以就此再詳細闡述。

No, I think that, one, with the respect to the yields, I think what we're looking at will be a continued increase sequentially. And so if we are kind of in the middle of that 4% to 4.5% range, that would be up 1.5% to 2% sequentially. In the last few years, when you look at the 10-year average, the sequential increase there from 2Q to 3Q is a little bit stronger. But when you look at kind of the last five years, that really skews that average, so to speak. So if you kind of look at a 10-year average sort of pre-COVID, it was more in that kind of 1.5% range about where we are thinking about being.

不，我認為，首先，就收益率而言，我認為我們所看到的將是持續的連續成長。因此，如果我們處於 4% 到 4.5% 的中間範圍，那麼環比增長將達到 1.5% 到 2%。在過去幾年中，當你查看 10 年平均值時，從第二季到第三季的連續成長要強勁一些。但當你回顧過去五年的情況時，你會發現，平均值確實發生了偏差。因此，如果你看一下新冠疫情之前的 10 年平均值，你會發現它大約在我們所考慮的 1.5% 左右。

So we're not seeing any change with respect to what our thinking is from an overall yield management standpoint. And I think that when you think about the industry as well, I think most carriers have kind of figured out that yields are important, those that you go back over the last 10, 15 years that they've taken a focus off yield, that's had pretty negative impacts on their overall profitability. And so I think that's why we've seen such consistency in the industry over the last three years where demand has been soft overall.

因此，從整體收益管理的角度來看，我們的想法並沒有任何改變。而且我認為，當你考慮這個行業時，我認為大多數航空公司都已經意識到收益率的重要性，而過去 10 到 15 年間，他們不再關注收益率，這對他們的整體盈利能力產生了相當負面的影響。所以我認為這就是為什麼我們在過去三年中看到該行業如此穩定，整體需求疲軟的原因。

From a market share standpoint, I think that since really Yellow closed their doors, I think there's been a lot of choppiness in terms of figuring out where our share is. And we obviously report that and report it by region, overall, in our deck that's out on our Investor Relations website. And so you can kind of see how share may be changing in one region versus the next. But it's something that when we look at the overall market, again, kind of factoring in what I just said about using the data out of transport topics, it looks like our share is relatively consistent with where we've been really over the last couple of years. And it's not to say that when we've gone through periods in the past of slow markets, that we're flat or could be down slightly whatever.

從市場份額的角度來看，我認為自從 Yellow 真正關閉以來，我們在確定自己的份額方面就出現了很大的波動。顯然，我們會在投資者關係網站上按地區進行總體報告。因此，你可以看到一個地區與另一個地區的份額是如何變化的。但當我們再次審視整體市場時，考慮到我剛才所說的使用運輸主題的數據，看起來我們的份額與過去幾年的水平相對一致。這並不是說，當我們過去經歷過市場低迷時期時，我們的業績就會持平或略有下降。

It's about the same. We've continued to execute a plan. We've continued to manage our cost. Our service has gotten better. And I think we're in a really strong position. It's just overall change that we sort of look at. And so we feel good about where we are, but we feel better about what the opportunities looking forward will be.

差不多。我們一直在繼續執行計劃。我們一直在控製成本。我們的服務變得更好了。我認為我們處於非常有利的地位。我們所看到的只是整體的改變。因此，我們對目前的狀況感到滿意，但我們對未來的機會更加感到滿意。

Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

斯科特集團、沃爾夫研究公司。

Thanks. Morning. This is a big picture question, maybe it's similar with what you just sort of answered, but if you look at the numbers, you're one of the leaders on yields right now. You're the biggest laggard on tonnage, at least among the public guys. And I guess you might say, hey, that's very normal in a more -- in a softer market that gets a little bit more competitive. We stay more disciplined on price than anybody. But I guess what feels different is just like the duration of this environment.

謝謝。早晨。這是一個宏觀問題，可能與您剛才的回答類似，但如果您看一下數字，您會發現您目前是收益率方面的領導者之一。你是噸位方面最大的落後者，至少在公眾人物中是如此。我想你可能會說，嘿，在一個更疲軟、競爭更激烈的市場中，這很正常。我們比任何人都更嚴格地控制價格。但我想，感覺不同的只是這種環境的持續時間。

Like we're three years into this, we're now -- we still have tonnage down high single digits. Does that -- does the duration of this change your thoughts at all in any way? Or is it, hey, we're just going to do it, we keep doing, and we'll wait this out and eventually, the cycle will come? Or because the cycle is lasting so much longer, do you think about it any differently?

就像我們已經經歷了三年，現在——我們的噸位仍然下降了個位數。這——這件事的持續時間會以某種方式改變你的想法嗎？或者是，嘿，我們就這麼做，我們繼續做，我們會等待，最終，週期就會到來？或是因為這個週期持續的時間太長，你對此有不同的看法？

Yes. I mean obviously, it's been -- we talked about these numbers from a quarterly perspective, annual perspective. There's a lot of day-to-day that's going on behind the scenes that doesn't get discussed. I mean, every day, we're working with customers and figuring out ways to identify new opportunities. And -- it's been a tough few years going through the soft demand initially and then you had the big industry event that happened, and so the flux of being down, being up short-lived and then being down again.

是的。我的意思是，顯然，我們是從季度角度、年度角度討論這些數字的。有很多日常幕後發生的事情都沒有被討論過。我的意思是，我們每天都在與客戶合作並尋找發現新機會的方法。這幾年過得很艱難，最初需求疲軟，然後又發生了重大行業事件，因此經歷了下滑、短暫上漲然後再次下滑的過程。

There's been a lot to try to manage through. I'd love for revenue to be higher. And I'd love for this cycle to turn. There have been a couple of times that we felt like it was turning and I think back to late 2023. We had started reinvesting, running our truck driving schools and hiring folks to be prepared for what we thought was going to be sustained improvement there. And then kind of hit another roadblock from a demand standpoint.

有很多事情需要嘗試解決。我希望收入能夠更高。我希望這個循環能夠轉變。有幾次我們感覺情況正在轉變，我想那是在 2023 年末。我們已經開始重新投資，開設卡車駕駛學校並僱用人員，為我們認為會持續改善的情況做好準備。然後從需求的角度來看又遇到了另一個障礙。

But overall, when I think about our model and how important revenue is, I mean, when you just look at the sequential performance through the second quarter, we don't normally talk about sequential incremental margins. But the reality is, is that a little bit of revenue that we put on the books between the first and second quarter, we had about 60% incremental margins on that business. So it shows, I think, the power of the model once we start getting revenue on the books, but we don't feel like we need to go out and try to chase bad revenue that doesn't fit in our thinking for the long term. And so I think that's what we've done.

但總的來說，當我考慮我們的模型以及收入的重要性時，我的意思是，當你只看第二季的連續表現時，我們通常不會談論連續的增量利潤率。但實際情況是，我們在第一季和第二季之間記錄的少量收入，使我們在該業務上的增量利潤率達到約 60%。因此，我認為，一旦我們開始在帳面上獲得收入，它就顯示出該模型的力量，但我們並不覺得我們需要出去追逐不符合我們長期想法的不良收入。所以我認為這就是我們所做的。

We've also continued to manage our costs very well. When I talk about splitting our operating ratio apart, the 74.6% that we just did in the second quarter, about -- between 52% and 53% of revenue were our direct variable cost. That's pretty much the same where we were in the second quarter of 2022 when we did a sub-70% operating ratio. And so we've been able to control what we can control. Our team has done a phenomenal job, I think, of protecting service, managing our cost in a very weak environment. And that's hard to do when you don't have density in the network. So I'm really pleased with that.

我們也繼續很好地管理成本。當我談到拆分我們的營運比率時，我們在第二季度剛剛實現的 74.6% 左右的收入是我們的直接變動成本。這與 2022 年第二季的營運率低於 70% 時的情況幾乎相同。因此，我們能夠控制我們能夠控制的事情。我認為，我們的團隊在非常脆弱的環境下，在保護服務、管理成本方面做得非常好。當網路密度不夠時，這一點很難做到。所以我對此感到非常高興。

Our overhead costs really are what's accelerated, and we just need a bigger revenue base to get leverage on those costs again. But that's part of our model and our strategy, too. We like to invest through the cycle, and we've got more capacity than we probably have ever had right now from a service center network standpoint. And so yes, we're carrying a lot of excess costs. Our overhead cost as a percent of revenue were about 22% here in the second quarter. Back in 2022, they're about 17%. So therein lies analyze the leverage for the model once we get back to a strong demand environment.

我們的管理費用確實在加速成長，我們只是需要更大的收入基礎來再次利用這些成本。但這也是我們的模式和策略的一部分。我們喜歡在整個週期內進行投資，從服務中心網路的角度來看，我們現在擁有的容量可能比以往任何時候都要大。是的，我們承擔了很多額外的成本。我們第二季的管理費用佔收入的百分比約為 22%。到 2022 年，這一比例約為 17%。因此，一旦我們回到強勁的需求環境，就要分析該模型的槓桿作用。

So I'm pleased with everything we've done. Obviously, we'd love to be able to flip the switch and see the demand environment improve. But I think from where we sit, when we look at what the other carriers are doing and kind of how revenue has trended for some of the others, we're hanging in there. We've not seen any true variance in our volumes relative to what the entire industry has done. If I look and see the industry is down about 15% from where we were in 2022, our performance is pretty much right in alignment with what the industry has done overall on a net-net basis.

所以我對我們所做的一切感到滿意。顯然，我們希望能夠改變現狀，看到需求環境得到改善。但我認為，從我們所處的位置來看，當我們觀察其他運營商的做法以及其他一些運營商的收入趨勢時，我們會堅持下去。與整個行業相比，我們的銷量並沒有出現任何真正的變化。如果我發現該行業比 2022 年下降了約 15%，那麼我們的業績與整個行業的淨值基本一致。

Jason Seidl, TD Cowen.

傑森·塞德爾 (Jason Seidl)，TD Cowen。

Thank you, operator. Marty, Adam, Jack, good morning, gentlemen. One clarification. I think you guys mentioned you expect losses on asset sales. Did I catch that correct?

謝謝您，接線生。馬蒂、亞當、傑克，先生們，早安。一個澄清。我想你們提到過預計資產出售將造成損失。我理解得對嗎？

Yes, Jason. We've been trying to reduce the size of our fleet a little bit, just in coordination with where freight volumes are trending. And so -- we had some losses in the second quarter. That was part of the reason why you may have seen our miscellaneous expenses ticked up a little bit higher. Normally, those costs are about 50 basis points or so. And so we saw those costs trend a little bit higher in the second quarter. They were up to 90. And I'm thinking that we'll see some continued pressure in the third quarter on those.

是的，傑森。我們一直在嘗試稍微縮減車隊規模，以適應貨運量的變化趨勢。因此，我們在第二季度遭受了一些損失。這就是為什麼您可能看到我們的雜費略有增加的原因之一。通常這些成本約為50個基點左右。因此，我們看到這些成本在第二季度略有上升。他們已經達到90了。我認為我們將在第三季度看到這些方面繼續面臨壓力。

I was just a little confused because I know other carriers are actually reporting gains on sale. And so maybe you can walk us through the difference between you and them?

我只是有點困惑，因為我知道其他運營商實際上報告了銷售成長。那麼，您能跟我們講講您和他們之間的差別嗎？

Well, while in many cases, we're selling a tractor on average. We use a tractor for 10 years. So there's probably not as much demand for -- that may be more of a truckload thing. But -- there's not as much demand for a 10-year-old million-mile single-axle day cab tractor.

嗯，雖然在很多情況下，我們平均銷售的是一輛拖拉機。我們使用拖拉機已有10年了。因此，對卡車的需求可能沒有那麼多。但是——對於一輛行駛了 10 年、行駛了數百萬英里的單軸日間駕駛室拖拉機的需求並不大。

And I guess, you mentioned the sequential move between June and July being slightly better than the historical average. Is any of this due to maybe some pull forward when people were worried about the tariffs potentially resetting again in August? Clearly, we're getting through some of the some deals. But did you get that feedback from any of your shippers that, that was occurring?

我想，您提到了 6 月和 7 月之間的連續走勢略好於歷史平均值。這是否是因為人們擔心 8 月關稅可能再次重置，提前採取了一些措施？顯然，我們正在完成一些交易。但是您是否從任何托運人那裡得到這樣的回饋？

Yes, there may be some of that. We've not heard material feedback on that. But like when I look at it by region, it's not like we saw a big change in like outbound business out of California, for example. Most of our regions are trending in about the same kind of range from a revenue performance standpoint. So there's -- I don't know that there's a big outlier that may be driving that.

是的，可能有一些。我們尚未聽到有關此事的實質回饋。但當我按地區來看時，我們並沒有看到加州等地的出境業務發生重大變化。從收入表現的角度來看，我們大多數地區的趨勢大致相同。所以——我不知道是否存在可能導致這一現象的重大異常值。

Bruce Chan, Stifel.

布魯斯陳（Bruce Chan），Stifel。

Maybe a bigger picture question here. We've been hearing pretty regularly in the past couple of quarters from some of the other carriers about AI and dynamic routing. I know that the OD style has always been to kind of quietly implement those things as part of the overall playbook, in many cases, much earlier than peers. But maybe just helpful to get an update on any optimization projects that you've got going on right now. And generally, how you're feeling about the various systems and your tech stack, anything incremental that we should be thinking about as an opportunity?

這裡可能有一個更大的問題。在過去的幾個季度中，我們經常聽到其他一些運營商談論人工智慧和動態路由。我知道 OD 的風格一直是悄悄地將這些事情作為整體劇本的一部分來實施，在許多情況下，比同行要早得多。但也許只是有助於了解您目前正在進行的任何優化項目的最新情況。總的來說，您對各種系統和技術堆疊有何感受，我們應該將哪些增量視為機會？

Yes. I think, like you said, I mean we're always looking at technology. It's a key part of our business, and I think has been to help us with our operating ratio. And just to kind of keep reminding our operating ratio is about 1,500 basis points better than the company average or industry average, I should say. So regardless of what the other carriers have got as opportunities, we're still materially outperforming there.

是的。我認為，就像你說的，我們一直在關注科技。這是我們業務的關鍵部分，我認為它有助於我們提高營運比率。需要提醒的是，我們的營業比率比公司平均或行業平均高出約 1,500 個基點。因此，無論其他業者面臨何種機遇，我們的表現仍遙遙領先。

And I think that technology has been a key part of that. And you're right. I mean we don't normally try to announce everything and give totally our playbook away, but we're looking at ways to keep getting better.

我認為技術是其中的關鍵部分。你是對的。我的意思是，我們通常不會試圖宣布一切並完全洩露我們的劇本，但我們正在尋找不斷進步的方法。

Continuous improvement is a key component for our foundation of success. And we've always got to look at ways that we can make investments that are really going to drive change from a service standpoint, ultimately or add value through the lens of driving operational efficiencies. And you mentioned line-haul optimization. That's kind of been the holy grail and the buzzword for the 21 years I've been in this industry, and -- but that's something that we continue to look and we've got some tools that we've continued to implement and try to refine to drive some optimization there. Same thing within our pickup delivery operations and on the dock.

持續改善是我們成功的基礎的關鍵因素。我們始終在尋找能夠真正從服務角度推動變革的投資方式，最終或透過提高營運效率來增加價值。您提到了乾線運輸優化。在我從事這個行業的 21 年裡，這一直是我的追求和流行語，而且——但這也是我們一直在尋找的東西，我們也有一些工具，我們一直在實施並嘗試改進以推動一些優化。我們的提貨送貨操作和碼頭上也發生同樣的事情。

And I think our increased use of some of those technologies is part of the reason why we've been able to keep those direct costs. And those direct costs are primarily variable costs, but the direct costs associated with moving freight to think that we've been able to manage those costs basically consistent with where we were.

我認為，我們對某些技術的更多使用是我們能夠控制這些直接成本的原因之一。這些直接成本主要是變動成本，但與運輸貨物相關的直接成本我們認為我們已經能夠基本按照原有的方式管理這些成本。

And when our business was running extremely at optimal state at the time back in 2022 with a sub-70 operating ratio, I think is pretty astounding when you think about the loss of density in our network now versus what we had in the network being. And so there's not just one thing to point to, but I think we've got a great team in the field. And I think we've got a great group and our technology team that's always looking for ways to get better to work with their business, to work with our customers.

當我們的業務在 2022 年以低於 70 的營運率達到最佳狀態時，如果考慮到我們現在的網路密度損失與以前的網路密度損失相比，我認為這是相當驚人的。所以，我認為我們在這個領域擁有一支優秀的團隊。我認為我們擁有一支優秀的團隊，我們的技術團隊一直在尋找更好地開展業務、與客戶合作的方法。

Another key part of the technology investment is how can we do things differently and add value and add stickiness with our customer base as well that differentiate us from our competition. So all of those things, I think, will continue to be strategic advantages for us and will be part of the story of how we -- we get our operating ratio back towards that 70% threshold, but continue marching forward and drive long-term improvement there in the operating ratio, while we continue to improve density and yield.

科技投資的另一個關鍵部分是我們如何以不同的方式做事，增加價值並增加客戶群的黏性，使我們在競爭中脫穎而出。因此，我認為，所有這些因素都將繼續成為我們的策略優勢，並將成為我們如何將營運率恢復到 70% 的門檻，但繼續向前邁進並推動營運率的長期改善的一部分，同時我們將繼續提高密度和產量。

Bascome Majors, Susquehanna.

巴斯科姆梅傑斯，薩斯奎哈納。

Just as a housekeeping item, can you remind us of typical revenue and margin seasonality for the fourth quarter? And Adam, if you look out longer term, not necessarily calling when the cycle will turn, but just thinking about what you think the business will respond like when it does? Can you update us on sort of the incremental margin or really other sort of profile you think you can deliver when we actually get some tonnage to flow through all the cost adjustment work that you've done over the last couple of years? Thank you.

作為一項日常事務，您能否提醒我們第四季度的典型收入和利潤季節性？亞當，如果你著眼於長遠，不一定要預測週期何時轉變，而只是想想當週期轉變時，你認為企業會作何反應？當我們真正獲得一些噸位來流經過去幾年所做的所有成本調整工作時，您能否向我們介紹一下增量利潤或其他類型的概況？謝謝。

Yes. So typically, our revenue per day, the 10-year average is a decrease of 0.3%, so 0.3% decrease in revenue per day. And then our operating ratio is typically up 200 to 250 basis points. And obviously, that we always have -- we do an annual actuarial study. So there could be changes plus and minus on that insurance and claims line in the fourth quarter. And last year, we had a pretty big unfavorable adjustment that we had to take there.

是的。因此，通常情況下，我們的每日收入，10 年平均值下降 0.3%，即每日收入下降 0.3%。然後我們的營運比率通常會上升 200 到 250 個基點。顯然，我們一直都會進行年度精算研究。因此，第四季的保險和索賠情況可能會出現正負變化。去年，我們不得不做出相當大的不利調整。

But nevertheless, we kind of exclude that from the averages, if you will. So that's what the normal performance is. And I think from just kind of looking forward in terms of what we can do from an incremental margin I just mentioned that sequential incremental margin. I don't expect 60% to be the norm. But just thinking about our cost structure and what I just laid out from a direct cost versus overhead cost and overhead is mainly fixed, but there are some variable costs in there.

但儘管如此，如果你願意的話，我們可以將其從平均值中排除。這就是正常的表現。我認為，從展望未來的角度來看，我們可以從增量利潤率方面做些什麼，我剛才提到了連續增量利潤率。我並不認為 60% 會成為常態。但只要考慮一下我們的成本結構以及我剛才列出的直接成本與間接成本，間接成本主要是固定的，但其中也有一些變動成本。

Overall, about 70% of our cost or so right now are variable. And that's how we've been able to protect our margins through this downturn is continuing to manage those. But anyways, the 53% of revenue being our direct variable cost, you kind of do the math, that's how we've been able to do sort of 35% to 40% incrementals when we're coming out of kind of on the early side of that demand inflection.

總體而言，我們目前大約 70% 的成本都是可變的。這就是我們能夠在經濟低迷時期保護利潤率的方法，我們將繼續管理這些利潤率。但無論如何，53% 的收入是我們的直接變動成本，你算一下，這就是我們在需求拐點的早期階段能夠實現 35% 到 40% 的增量的原因。

And then eventually, you kind of get back to the point where you've got to add more equipment, you've got to add more people and so forth, and it starts compressing back. Our longer-term average incremental has been 35%. And so I think that still seems reasonable and that would continue to imply that if you run that out for several years of a recovery in revenue growth that we would get back to that sub-70 type of threshold.

然後最終，你又回到了必須增加更多設備、必須增加更多人員等等的階段，然後它又開始壓縮。我們的長期平均增量為 35%。因此，我認為這仍然看起來合理，並且這意味著如果在幾年內實現收入成長的復甦，我們將回到 70 以下的門檻。

Ravi Shanker, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的拉維‧尚克 (Ravi Shanker)。

I have this topic has been discussed a fair bit, but if I can just hit it again in a slightly different way. You guys have been masters of calling the cycle over the years and have shown your operating prowess as well. But to kind of Scott's point, it's been three years of a downturn. And even now, I think some of the TLs and rails are actually sounding a little bit better on volumes in the cycle, even though nobody is going to high fighting here. How can you guys tell if there is something bigger and more structural going on with the LTL space here rather than just a cycle?

我已經對這個主題討論過很多次了，但是如果我能以稍微不同的方式再次討論它的話。多年來，你們一直是預測週期的大師，也展現了你們的操作實力。但正如斯科特所說，經濟已經陷入了三年的低迷。即使是現在，我認為一些 TL 和軌道在循環中的音量實際上聽起來要好一些，儘管沒有人會在這裡進行激烈的戰鬥。你們怎麼知道這裡的 LTL 空間是否存在更大、更結構性的事情，而不僅僅是一個循環？

Maybe some more permanent share shift to TL, maybe in-sourcing by shippers, changing supply chains? Or your customers telling you that they will definitively be back with the same level of volumes are higher in upcycle?

也許一些更永久的份額轉移到 TL，也許是由托運人進行內部採購，改變供應鏈？或者您的客戶告訴您，他們肯定會在上升週期中以相同的銷售水平回來？

Yes. What you just said there at the end is the confidence that we have in our long-term market share really is just driven by those customer conversations and how we think supply chains will continue to trend over time. We've seen some market share shift, I think, from LTL to truckload through this cycle. And when you look at some of the statistics in the truckload industry in terms of what they're charging revenue per mile versus cost per mile, it's -- they're willing to operate at breakeven or worse. And I think that's what you're seeing with some of the operating ratios that have been published as well.

是的。您最後說的是，我們對長期市場份額的信心實際上只是受到客戶對話以及我們認為供應鏈將如何隨著時間的推移而持續發展趨勢的驅動。我認為，在這一週期中，我們已經看到一些市場份額從零擔運輸轉向整車運輸。當你查看卡車運輸行業的一些統計數據，了解他們每英里收取的收入與每英里成本的比例時，你會發現——他們願意以盈虧平衡或更差的水平運作。我認為這也是您從一些已發布的營運比率中看到的。

So -- but I think that's some of the trend that we've got to continue to watch is as that business starts picking back up, they get busier, the rates start going back up, I think that's when you'll start seeing some of this unwinding effect in some of those truckload carriers that they don't really want to move multiple shipments on the back of their truck and make multiple stops. That's not their preference.

所以——但我認為我們必須繼續關注的趨勢是，隨著業務開始回升，他們變得更加繁忙，費率開始回升，我認為那時你會開始看到一些卡車運輸商的這種放鬆效應，他們並不真的想在卡車後面運送多批貨物並多次停車。這不是他們的偏好。

And they don't have the network that's set up to really handle it. They only do it when times are tough and they need some payload to make a truck payment. And so I think you'll see that business move back into LTL. And then we'll continue to see kind of our customers that are continuing to -- if we go through a customer, we're seeing a lot of wins, like I mentioned, from just a customer-specific standpoint and customers are continuing to award us the same lanes of business that they've had before, but their overall business levels might be down. And whether that's just the demand for their product, some we know are taking advantage of this truckload opportunity.

而且他們沒有建立真正能處理這個問題的網路。他們只有在困難時期才這樣做，並且需要一些貨物來支付卡車費用。因此我認為你會看到業務重新轉向 LTL。然後，我們將繼續看到我們的客戶繼續下去——如果我們透過一個客戶，我們會看到很多勝利，就像我提到的那樣，從特定客戶的角度來看，客戶繼續授予我們與以前相同的業務管道，但他們的整體業務水平可能會下降。無論這是否只是對其產品的需求，我們知道有些人正在利用這個卡車運輸機會。

It's kind of going to be multiple items that I think are driving the increase in demand. And I think we'll see more of that share shift back than probably what we've seen in prior cycles.

我認為有多種因素會推動需求的成長。我認為，我們將看到比前幾個週期更多的份額回落。

So we feel like we're ahead of it, though, from a capacity standpoint. I mentioned network capacity from a service center standpoint. But I feel like we're in really good shape in regards to our fleet. We're probably heavy there in all honesty. But I feel like from a people capacity standpoint as well, we've got a team that's in position and ready.

因此，從容量的角度來看，我們感覺我們已經領先了。我從服務中心的角度提到了網路容量。但我覺得我們的船隊狀況非常好。說實話，我們可能在那裡很沉重。但我覺得從人員能力的角度來看，我們已經擁有一支準備就緒的團隊。

And that's the best incremental margin you can get is when we've got a driver that's already making a stop at our customer. And now instead of picking up one shipment, they're picking up three. And that's typically what we've seen in cycles past and how our volumes can accelerate so quickly on the front end of the inflecting economy, and that's what we'd expect to see whenever this economy does eventually inflect back to the positive.

當我們有一位司機已經在客戶那裡停車時，這就是您可以獲得的最佳增量利潤。現在他們不再只接收一批貨物，而是接收三批。這通常是我們在過去的周期中所看到的，以及我們的交易量如何在經濟波動的前端如此迅速地加速，這也是我們預計在經濟最終恢復正增長時會看到的情況。

Richa Harnain, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的 Richa Harnain。

Gentlemen, thanks for the time. I appreciated all the color around your positioning being as strong as it's ever been to respond to an improving environment. And the OD model really make hay when the sun is shining. So maybe you can talk to us -- I guess that we're a little reticent to speak to some of the green shoots given all the headaches you've had. But just customer conversations. You talked about maybe fatigue on the tariff side, reactions to the recent bill that passed in Washington to spur growth, interest rate cuts, like what are shippers telling you about their appetite to give you more business in the future.

先生們，感謝您抽出時間。我很欣賞你們的定位，你們的定位一如既往地強勁，能夠應對不斷改善的環境。當陽光明媚時，OD 模型確實能發揮作用。所以也許你可以和我們談談——我想，考慮到你所遇到的所有麻煩，我們不太願意談論一些新的希望。但只是客戶對話。您談到了關稅方面的疲勞、對華盛頓最近通過的刺激增長法案的反應、利率削減，以及托運人告訴您的關於他們希望在未來給您帶來更多業務的意願。

And then if you can maybe parse out kind of what industries you're maybe more optimistic about versus industries where you're really seeing normally set in or more negative trends?

然後，您是否可以分析哪些行業您可能更樂觀，哪些行業您真正看到的是正常或更負面的趨勢？

Yes. I think that it's been the uncertainty that's been hanging out there over the economy that I think has resulted in just the lack of freight volumes overall. Again, I mentioned industry volumes are down about 15% from where we were back in '21, '22. So it's something that everyone had to contend with. But I think we saw kind of going back to the fall of last year, we saw some initial optimism with respect to the industrial economy. And 55% to 60% of our revenue is industrial related, so that's important to us. And we saw that acceleration in the ISM in December and then it was positive for a couple of months.

是的。我認為，經濟上一直存在的不確定性導致了整體貨運量的不足。我再次提到，產業銷量比 21、22 年下降了約 15%。所以這是每個人都必須面對的事情。但我認為我們看到了回到去年秋季的跡象，我們看到了對工業經濟的一些初步樂觀情緒。我們 55% 到 60% 的收入與工業相關，所以這對我們很重要。我們看到 12 月 ISM 指數加速上升，並且在接下來的幾個月裡一直保持正成長。

But then all the tariff conversation started, and then that just created more uncertainty that seem to kind of throw cold water on what we're developing at the time. And it's hard from a -- if you're a manufacturer, for example, to figure out what the cost structure is going to be when you don't really know what the final tariff cost might be. And so I think that's something that we've had a lot of customers trying to figure out and solve for. And in some cases, you just try to wait things out. And so that's why we've got a little cautious optimism now that we've seen the tax deal be finalized and the bonus depreciation is something that I think can spur some further investment here.

但隨後，所有關稅談判開始了，這帶來了更多的不確定性，似乎為我們當時正在開發的項目潑了冷水。例如，如果你是一家製造商，當你不知道最終關稅成本是多少時，就很難弄清楚成本結構是什麼樣的。所以我認為這是很多客戶都在試圖弄清楚和解決的問題。在某些情況下，你只需要等待事情結束。因此，既然我們已經看到稅收協議最終敲定，並且獎金折舊可以刺激進一步的投資，我們就有了一點謹慎樂觀的態度。

If we start seeing some trade deals come to fruition. And that will be something that provides a little bit more confidence for our customers. And I think the final piece will be do we get some relief on interest rates.

如果我們開始看到一些貿易協定取得成果。這將為我們的客戶提供更多的信心。我認為最後一個問題是我們能否降低利率。

And so customers that are going through all of their financials and figuring out do they invest or not and what kind of return can we expect on their investment. All those -- once you get clarity on those big picture items, I think that's what it's going to take to really kind of spur the economy forward. So we feel like we're closer to that. Now that we're getting clarity on some of these items and -- but we want to turn that feeling into true freight and see it coming on board. And I mentioned that we're seeing a little bit better performance right now in July.

因此，客戶需要仔細檢查自己的所有財務狀況，確定是否要投資，以及他們的投資能帶來什麼樣的回報。所有這些——一旦你弄清楚了這些大局問題，我認為這才是真正刺激經濟發展所需要的。所以我們感覺我們已經接近這個目標了。現在我們對其中一些事項有了更清晰的認識——但我們希望將這種感覺轉化為真正的貨物，並看到它順利完成。我提到過，我們現在看到 7 月的表現有所改善。

And we'll just continue to watch and see, because that really manifest in to seeing some sequential improvement versus just what our business has been like for the last three years of kind of flattish to down month over month.

我們將繼續觀察，因為這確實體現在看到一些連續的改善，而我們的業務在過去三年中一直是持平甚至逐月下降的。

Stephanie Moore, Jefferies.

史蒂芬妮摩爾，傑富瑞集團。

Good morning. Thanks, guys. Just one real quick here. Look, any thoughts on where the LTL industry fits in, in general, with this potential transcontinental railroad or potentially too? Obviously, most are talking about these deals -- deal impacting line-haul truckload, but where does LTL sit here at all, I would love your perspective? Thanks.

早安.謝謝大家。這裡只有一個非常快的。看看，對於 LTL 行業與這條潛在的橫貫大陸鐵路總體上或潛在的適應情況，您有什麼看法？顯然，大多數人都在談論這些交易——影響幹線卡車運輸的交易，但 LTL 在這裡處於什麼位置，我很想聽聽您的看法？謝謝。

Yes. I don't know that I would expect to see any material impact on LTL overall. I mean -- something that it could be ultimately downstream, something we'll continue to watch and engage with customers on. But I think that's kind of on the other end of the supply chain, not necessarily seeing changes with respect to the rail industry kind of filter down to where we can find a correlation to any changes in our business levels.

是的。我不知道我是否會看到對 LTL 整體產生任何實質影響。我的意思是——它最終可能會成為下游的東西，我們會繼續關注並與客戶互動。但我認為這是在供應鏈的另一端，不一定會看到鐵路行業的變化，我們可以從中找到與我們業務水平變化之間的關聯。

[Ariel Rosa], Citigroup.

[Ariel Rosa]，花旗集團。

So I know in reference to Bascome's question, you mentioned the normal seasonal trends from third quarter to fourth quarter. I was just wondering, it's been such a weird year, we've obviously seen some abnormal seasonal trends so far year-to-date. I'm wondering how you think about your ability to outperform normal sequential trends, I guess, as we move into the back half of the year, especially in the fourth quarter. And then also how the wage increases play into that? And kind of how much discretion you have around that? And what's kind of plan, how much how much pressure that puts on the OR? Thanks.

所以我知道關於 Bascome 的問題，您提到了從第三季到第四季的正常季節性趨勢。我只是想知道，今年真是奇怪的一年，到目前為止，我們顯然看到了一些異常的季節性趨勢。我想知道，隨著我們進入下半年，特別是第四季度，您如何看待自己超越正常連續趨勢的能力。那麼薪資成長對此有何影響？您對此有多大判斷力？計劃是什麼樣的？這會對手術室帶來多大的壓力？謝謝。

Yes. I mean, obviously, our costs will be going up with respect to the wage increase. And that's part of what we normally see that 200- to 250-basis-point deterioration from the third to the fourth quarters. You get one month of it in third quarter, and then you've got the full quarter effect in 4Q, but that's usually 1 point, 1.5 points type of increase. If you look at that 250 change, that's going to be a big driver there. And -- but keep sounding like a broken record, I think it's just going to be revenue dependent.

是的。我的意思是，顯然，我們的成本會隨著薪資的增加而增加。這也是我們通常看到的從第三季到第四季 200 到 250 個基點的下降現象的一部分。第三季有一個月的增幅，然後第四季就會產生整個季度的增幅，但通常是 1 個百分點、1.5 個百分點的成長。如果你看這 250 個變化，你會發現這將成為一個巨大的推動力。而且 — — 但聽起來像是老生常談，我認為這只是取決於收入。

The fourth quarter, if we can kind of continue to maintain our revenue per shipment -- net revenue per shipment, but just revenue per day rather in the same realm of where we are. We'll continue to manage our cost like we have. And I think by the fourth quarter, I would hope to see some of this increase that we've had in overall cost -- overhead costs, rather, start to come in a little bit. And so those are some other things that can help. But it's just continuing to manage our cost, manage our operating efficiencies, which our team is doing a great job of kind of mentioned before we're controlling our variable cost. We've got to continue to do that. And typically, you see volumes a little bit softer in 4Q.

第四季度，如果我們能夠繼續保持每批貨物的收入——每批貨物的淨收入，但每天的收入與我們現在的水平相同。我們將繼續像以前一樣管理成本。我認為到第四季度，我希望看到我們的整體成本（或間接成本）增加，並開始出現一些成長。這些是其他一些可以提供幫助的事情。但這只是繼續管理我們的成本，管理我們的營運效率，我們的團隊在控制可變成本方面做得很好。我們必須繼續這樣做。通常，你會看到第四季的交易量會稍微疲軟一些。

So it just presents even more of a challenge to our ops team. But we just got to continue to stay disciplined, really throughout all areas of the operation. And everybody's got to participate and we've got to continue to manage our discretionary spending. And think through if we're spending $1, what is the purpose behind it? And is it going to improve customer service? Is it going to help us over the long term? And those types of investments we're willing to make even though we're trying to protect the short term, we've really got to think and we do think bigger picture and longer term for what's going to be to the best benefit of Old Dominion over the long run. And that's why you've continued to see us make investments and continue to execute on our CapEx program.

因此，這對我們的營運團隊來說是一個更大的挑戰。但我們必須繼續保持紀律，實際上貫穿整個行動的各個領域。每個人都必須參與，我們必須繼續管理我們的可自由支配的開支。想想看，如果我們花 1 美元，背後的目的是什麼？這會改善客戶服務嗎？長遠來看，這對我們有幫助嗎？儘管我們試圖保護短期利益，但我們確實必須思考，我們確實會從更大角度和更長遠的角度考慮，從長遠來看，什麼對 Old Dominion 最有利。這就是為什麼您不斷看到我們進行投資並繼續執行我們的資本支出計劃。

And I've mentioned this three-year down cycle, by the end of this year, we'll spend probably close to $2 billion on capital expenditures and to do so in a soft environment that's created its fair share of cost headwinds, but it's something that we've managed through. And I think we'll be happy that we've done these when we get on the other side of this economy. And you'll see that the leverage that can come through just like what we saw in the second quarter for that short-term benefit.

我提到過這個為期三年的下行週期，到今年年底，我們可能會花費近 20 億美元的資本支出，而且是在疲軟的環境下實現的，這帶來了相當大的成本阻力，但我們已經克服了它。我認為，當我們走出經濟困境時，我們會很高興我們做到了這些。您將會看到，就像我們在第二季度看到的那樣，槓桿可以帶來短期利益。

This will conclude our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Marty Freeman for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議交還給 Marty Freeman 做結束語。

All right. Well thank you all for participating today. We appreciate your questions and feel free to to call us if you have anything further. Thanks and have a great day.

好的。非常感謝大家今天的參與。我們感謝您的提問，如果您還有其他問題，請隨時致電我們。謝謝，祝您有愉快的一天。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。