奧多明尼昂貨運 (ODFL) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Old Dominion Freight Line third-quarter 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Jack Atkins. Please go ahead.

早安，歡迎參加 Old Dominion Freight Line 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作說明）請注意，本次活動正在錄影。現在我將把會議交給傑克·阿特金斯。請繼續。

Thank you, Jason, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to the third-quarter 2025 conference call for Old Dominion Freight Line. Today's call is being recorded and will be available for replay beginning today through November 5, 2025, by dialing 1 (877) 344-7529, access code 1478106. The replay of the webcast may also be accessed for 30 days at the company's website. This conference call may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements, among others, regarding Old Dominion's expected financial and operating performance. For this purpose, any statements made during this call that are not statements of historical fact may be deemed to be forward-looking statements.

謝謝你，傑森，大家早安。歡迎參加 Old Dominion Freight Line 2025 年第三季電話會議。今天的通話將會被錄音，從今天起至 2025 年 11 月 5 日，撥打 1 (877) 344-7529，接入碼 1478106 即可收聽回放。網路直播的回放也可在公司網站上觀看，有效期為 30 天。本次電話會議可能包含 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》所指的前瞻性陳述，其中包括有關 Old Dominion 預期財務和營運績效的陳述。為此，本次電話會議中任何非歷史事實的陳述均可被視為前瞻性陳述。

Without limiting the foregoing, the words believes, anticipates, plans, expects, and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. You are hereby cautioned that these statements may be affected by the important factors, among others, set forth in Old Dominion's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission and in this morning's news release. And consequently, actual operations and results may differ materially from the results discussed in the forward-looking statements.

在不限制前述內容的前提下，「相信」、「預期」、「計劃」、「期望」等詞語以及類似表達旨在識別前瞻性陳述。特此提醒各位，這些聲明可能會受到許多重要因素的影響，這些因素已在 Old Dominion 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件以及今天早上的新聞稿中列出。因此，實際營運和結果可能與前瞻性聲明中討論的結果有重大差異。

The company undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. As a final note before we begin, we welcome your questions they've been asked and in fairness to all that you limit yourself to just one question at a time before returning to the queue.

該公司不承擔因新資訊、未來事件或其他原因而公開更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務。在正式開始之前，最後提醒大家，我們歡迎你們提出問題，但為了公平起見，請大家一次只提一個問題，之後再回到隊列中。

At this time, for opening remarks, I'd like to turn the call over to Marty Freeman, our President and Chief Executive Officer. Marty, please go ahead, sir.

此時此刻，我想把電話交給我們的總裁兼執行長馬蒂·弗里曼先生，請他致開幕詞。馬蒂，請您繼續，先生。

Good morning, and welcome to our third-quarter conference call. With me on the call today is Adam Satterfield, our CFO. And after some brief remarks, we will be glad to take your questions. Old Dominion's third-quarter financial results reflect continued softness in the domestic economy. Our revenue declined 4.3% compared to the third quarter of 2024 due primarily to a 9% decrease in our LTL tonnes per day, which was partially offset by ongoing improvement in our yields.

早上好，歡迎參加我們第三季電話會議。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是我們的財務長亞當·薩特菲爾德。簡短致詞後，我們將樂意回答各位的問題。老道明能源公司第三季財務表現反映出國內經濟持續疲軟。與 2024 年第三季相比，我們的收入下降了 4.3%，這主要是由於我們每天的零擔貨運量下降了 9%，但部分被我們收益率的持續提高所抵消。

We continue to operate efficiently during the quarter, and we're able to manage our direct variable cost as a result. The deleveraging effect from the decrease in revenue, however, drove an increase in our overhead expenses that resulted in the increase in our operating ratio to a 74.3. As we navigate through the continues -- to be a challenging micro environment, we remain focused on what we can control. I'm proud of how our team continues to execute the core elements of our long-term strategic plan as we work to ensure that Old Dominion is the best positioned carrier in our industry to respond to an inflection in the operating environment when it does materialize.

本季我們繼續保持高效運營，因此能夠有效控制直接可變成本。然而，收入下降帶來的去槓桿效應導致我們的管理費用增加，進而使我們的營業比率上升至74.3%。儘管當前微觀環境充滿挑戰，但我們仍將專注於我們能夠控制的因素。我為我們的團隊繼續執行長期策略計畫的核心要素而感到自豪，我們努力確保 Old Dominion 成為業界最有能力應對營運環境變化的營運商。

As we have said many times before, our long-term strategic plan includes an ongoing focus on delivering superior service at a fair price. The other key elements of our strategy include investing in new service centers, equipment, technologies, and most importantly, our people. Our past financial results have proved that investing in our sales through the economic cycle can pay dividends over the long term. An example of how this is happening as we've been able to control our direct variable cost this year despite the lack of network density associated with the decrease in our volumes.

正如我們之前多次說過的那樣，我們的長期策略計劃包括持續專注於以合理的價格提供優質的服務。我們策略的其他關鍵要素包括投資新的服務中心、設備、技術，以及最重要的—我們的人才。我們過去的財務表現證明，在經濟週期中投資於銷售，長遠來看可以獲得回報。舉例來說，儘管由於銷售下降導致網路密度降低，但我們今年仍能夠控制直接可變成本。

In fact, our direct variable costs are relatively consistent as a percent of revenue to when we produce company record operating results back in 2022. While we are -- while there are many factors influencing these costs, we have implemented new workforce planning and dock yard management tools as well as P&D and linehaul route optimization software, which have helped drive improvements in our productivity. Even as we have faced headwinds from lower density.

事實上，我們的直接變動成本佔收入的百分比與我們在 2022 年取得公司創紀錄的經營業績時相比，相對穩定。雖然有許多因素影響這些成本，但我們已經實施了新的勞動力規劃和碼頭管理工具，以及 P&D 和乾線運輸路線優化軟體，這些都有助於提高我們的生產力。即使我們面臨人口密度降低帶來的不利影響。

Importantly, we have done this while maintaining the highest standard of service for our customers, and I'm pleased to report that once again provided our customers with 99% on-time service and a cargo claims ratio of 0.1% during the third quarter. That said, we also know that providing our customers with superior service more than simply picking up and delivering the freight on time and without damages. Mastio & Company measures 28 different service and value-related attributes during its annual survey of shipper and logistic professionals. We were honored earlier this month to be named the number one national LTL provider for the 16th consecutive year.

重要的是，我們在保持為客戶提供最高服務標準的同時做到了這一點，我很高興地報告說，在第三季度，我們再次為客戶提供了 99% 的準時服務，貨物索賠率僅為 0.1%。也就是說，我們也知道，為客戶提供優質服務不僅僅是按時無損地取送貨物。Mastio & Company 在對托運人和物流專業人士的年度調查中，衡量了 28 個不同的服務和價值相關屬性。本月初，我們榮幸地連續第16年被評為全國排名第一的零擔貨運供應商。

In addition, Old Dominion maintained a sizable advantage against our competition. And we finished first in 23 of the 28 categories evaluated by Mastio. I would like to congratulate the OD family of employees on this accomplishment. Every member of the OD family is incredibly proud of this recognition, and we also remain highly motivated to continue providing our customers with best-in-class service every single day.

此外，老道明大學相對於我們的競爭對手保持著相當大的優勢。在 Mastio 評估的 28 個類別中，我們有 23 個類別獲得了第一名。我謹向OD團隊全體員工表示祝賀，祝賀他們取得這項成就。OD 大家庭的每位成員都為獲得這項認可感到無比自豪，我們也將繼續努力，每天為客戶提供一流的服務。

We know that consistency of our service creates value for our customers. It also differentiates us from the competition. Our customers know that they can count on us to help keep promises through the ups and downs of the economic cycle, which means they can keep their commitments to their own customers. Importantly, our consistent service also supports our disciplined approach to yield management.

我們深知，始終如一的服務才能為顧客創造價值。這也使我們與競爭對手區分開來。我們的客戶知道，無論經濟週期如何起伏，他們都可以依靠我們來履行承諾，這意味著他們也可以履行對自身客戶的承諾。重要的是，我們始終如一的服務也支撐著我們嚴謹的收益管理方法。

Over the years, we have built a unique culture centered on core elements of our strategic plan, the cornerstone of which is providing our customers superior service at a fair price. This has created an unmatched value proposition for our customers and allowed us to win more market share over the past decade than any other LTL carrier. We will continue to focus on delivering best-in-class service to our customers while also operating efficiently and maintaining our disciplined approach to managing our yields. As a result, we are confident in the ability to win profitable market share and increase shareholder value over the long term.

多年來，我們建立了一種獨特的企業文化，其核心是我們的策略計劃，而該計劃的基石是以合理的價格為客戶提供優質的服務。這為我們的客戶創造了無與倫比的價值主張，並使我們在過去十年中贏得了比任何其他零擔貨運公司更多的市場份額。我們將繼續專注於為客戶提供一流的服務，同時高效運營，並保持我們嚴謹的收益管理方法。因此，我們有信心贏得獲利的市場份額，並在長期內提高股東價值。

Again, thank you for joining us this morning, and now Adam will discuss our third quarter in greater detail.

再次感謝各位今天早上收看我們的節目，接下來亞當將更詳細地討論我們第三季的情況。

Thank you, Marty, and good morning. Old Dominion's revenue totaled $1.41 billion for the third quarter of 2025, which was a 4.3% decrease from the prior year. Our revenue results reflect a 9.0% decrease in LTL tonnes per day that was partially offset by a 4.7% increase in LTL revenue per hundredweight. On a sequential basis, our revenue per day for the third quarter decreased 0.1% when compared to the second quarter of 2025 with LTL tonnes per day decreasing 2.9% and LTL shipments per day decreasing 1.6%.

謝謝你，馬蒂，早安。Old Dominion 2025 年第三季的營收總計 14.1 億美元，比去年同期下降 4.3%。我們的營收表現反映出零擔貨運量每天下降了 9.0%，但零擔貨運收入每百磅成長了 4.7%，部分抵銷了這一影響。與 2025 年第二季相比，我們第三季的日均營收季減 0.1%，零擔貨運量日均下降 2.9%，零擔貨運量日均下降 1.6%。

For comparison, the 10-year average sequential change for these metrics includes an increase of 2.9% in revenue per day, an increase of 0.5% in the LTL tonnes per day and an increase of 1.9% in LTL shipments per day. The monthly sequential changes in LTL tonnes per day during the third quarter were as follows: July decreased 1.9% as compared to June; August decreased 1.8% as compared to July; and September increased 1.3% as compared to August.

作為對比，這些指標的 10 年平均連續變化包括：每日收入增長 2.9%，每日零擔貨運噸數增長 0.5%，每日零擔貨運量增長 1.9%。第三季零擔貨運量（噸/天）的月度環比變化如下：7 月份比 6 月份下降 1.9%；8 月份比 7 月份下降 1.8%；9 月份比 8 月份增長 1.3%。

The 10-year average change for these respective months is a decrease of 2.9% in July, an increase of 0.4% in August, and an increase of 3.3% in September. For October, our current month-to-date revenue per day is down approximately 6.5% to 7% when compared to October 2024 with a decrease of 11.6% in our LTL tonnes per day. As usual, we will provide actual revenue-related details for October in our third-quarter Form 10-Q.

過去十年中，這幾個月份的平均變化分別為：7 月下降 2.9%，8 月上升 0.4%，9 月上升 3.3%。截至 2024 年 10 月，我們目前的月度每日收入比 2024 年 10 月下降了約 6.5% 至 7%，其中零擔貨運量每日下降了 11.6%。與往常一樣，我們將在第三季 10-Q 表格中提供 10 月份的實際收入相關詳情。

Our operating ratio increased 160 basis points to 74.3% for the third quarter of 2025 as the decrease in revenue had a deleveraging effect on many of our operating expenses. Our overhead costs, which are primarily fixed in nature, increased 160 basis points as a percent of revenue due to this effect and the ongoing execution of our capital expenditure plan. These factors contributed to the 70-basis-point increase on our depreciation cost as a percent of revenue.

2025 年第三季度，由於收入下降，我們的許多營運費用受到去槓桿化影響，導致我們的營業比率上升了 160 個基點，達到 74.3%。由於上述影響以及我們資本支出計畫的持續執行，我們的間接費用（主要為固定費用）佔收入的百分比增加了 160 個基點。這些因素導致我們的折舊成本佔收入的百分比上升了 70 個基點。

Miscellaneous expenses as a percent of revenue also increased 40 basis points due primarily to changes in gains and losses on the disposal of property and equipment between the periods compared. While our remaining overhead cost increased as a percent of revenue, these expenses in aggregate were lower than the third quarter of 2024 as we continued to exercise excellent control over our discretionary spending.

雜項支出佔收入的百分比也增加了 40 個基點，這主要是由於比較期間處置固定資產和設備損益的變化所致。雖然我們剩餘的間接費用佔收入的比例有所增加，但由於我們繼續對可自由支配的支出進行嚴格控制，這些費用總額低於 2024 年第三季。

Our direct cost as a percent of revenue were flat compared to the third quarter of 2024 due to the improvement in yield and continued focus on operating efficiencies. We were pleased that our team was able to effectively match our variable cost with current revenue trends during the quarter. I also believe that we will be able to improve these direct costs even further when we return to a growth environment and benefit from the improvement in network density.

由於收益率的提高和對營運效率的持續關注，我們的直接成本佔收入的百分比與 2024 年第三季相比持平。我們很高興團隊能夠在本季度有效地將變動成本與當前的收入趨勢相匹配。我也相信，當我們重返成長環境並受益於網路密度的提高時，我們將能夠進一步改善這些直接成本。

Old Dominion's cash flow from operations totaled $437.5 million for the third quarter and $1.1 billion for the first nine months of 2025, respectively, while capital expenditures were $94 million and $369.3 million for those same periods. We utilized $180.8 million and $605.4 million of cash for our share repurchase program during the third quarter and first nine months of 2025, respectively. While our cash dividends totaled $58.7 million and $177.2 million for those same periods. Our effective tax rate for the third quarter of 2025 was 24.8% as compared to 23.4% in the third quarter of 2024. We currently expect our effective tax rate to be 24.8% for the fourth quarter of 2025.

Old Dominion 2025 年第三季經營活動產生的現金流總額為 4.375 億美元，2025 年前九個月的經營活動現金流總額為 11 億美元，而同期資本支出分別為 9,400 萬美元和 3.693 億美元。我們在 2025 年第三季和前九個月分別動用了 1.808 億美元和 6.054 億美元現金用於股票回購計畫。同期，我們的現金股利總額分別為 5,870 萬美元及 1.772 億美元。2025 年第三季的實際稅率為 24.8%，而 2024 年第三季的實際稅率為 23.4%。我們目前預計 2025 年第四季的實際稅率為 24.8%。

This concludes our prepared remarks this morning. Operator, we'll be happy to open the floor for questions at this time.

今天上午的發言到此結束。接線員，我們現在很樂意接受提問。

Thank you. We will now begin our question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝。現在開始問答環節。（操作說明）

Chris Wetherbee, Wells Fargo.

克里斯‧韋瑟比，富國銀行。

Hey, thanks. Good morning, guys. Maybe Adam, we could start on the October environment. You mentioned tonnage down, I think, 11.6% is what you said. Just curious what you're seeing from a demand perspective. Obviously, it seems like there's some softness in the first part of October. And then I think you typically give us some help in terms of both top line as well as operating ratio for the forward quarter. So any kind of comments you have just given the context of what we're seeing so far in October around the fourth quarter would be very helpful.

嘿，謝謝。各位早安。亞當，或許我們可以從十月的環境議題開始討論。你提到噸位下降，我想，你說的是下降了11.6%。只是好奇你從需求角度看到了什麼。顯然，10 月上半月天氣似乎比較溫和。然後我認為，你們通常會在季度末的營收和營運比率方面給我們一些幫助。所以，您剛才提供的任何評論，如果能結合我們目前在10月份看到的第四季度的情況進行闡述，都將非常有幫助。

Yeah. Maybe I'll just start with that because obviously, the operating ratio is going to be impacted by what's going on with revenue. But the average change in our operating ratio from the third to the fourth quarter is a sequential increase of 200 to 250 basis points. As a reminder, that excludes any change in the insurance and claims line item. And as you know, that gets impacted by the annual actuarial study that we conducted in the fourth quarter of each year. But basically, the current trend with revenue, we're starting out. Our tonnage is underperforming, seasonality a little bit. But it looks like with our revenue-per-day performance, we're really just -- I'd say it's a similar -- we continue to trend at this down 6.5% to 7%. That's similar underperformance or would be for the full quarter as what we've seen in the first three quarters of the year.

是的。或許我就先從這點入手，因為很顯然，營業比率會受到收入狀況的影響。但從第三季到第四季度，我們的營運比率平均季增了 200 至 250 個基點。再次提醒，這不包括保險和理賠項目的任何變更。如您所知，這會受到我們每年第四季度進行的年度精算研究的影響。但就目前的收入趨勢而言，我們才剛起步。我們的噸位表現不佳，可能受季節性因素影響。但就我們每日收入的表現來看，情況似乎差不多——我認為情況類似——我們繼續保持下降 6.5% 至 7% 的趨勢。這與今年前三個季度的表現類似，或者說整個季度的表現都會如此。

So if we continue with that same revenue per day being down 6.5% to 7% for the full quarter, I'd say that we probably expect a sequential increase of about 300 basis points. I would say that we probably ought to put a range on that given the revenue uncertainty and probably go an increase of 250 to 350 basis points. I think if we see some revenue recovery, that could help us get to the low end of the range, which would be right there, 250 bps, right, at the top end of normal, if you will. But I think just given the continued uncertainty on revenue if things were to get any worse, which we're not seeing at this point, that would give a little flexibility on the top side. But importantly, after the performance that we just had in the third quarter, we're at a great starting point as we start off with the fourth-quarter performance.

因此，如果整個季度每日收入繼續下降 6.5% 至 7%，我認為我們可能會預期環比增長約 300 個基點。考慮到收入的不確定性，我認為我們應該設定一個區間，可能會提高 250 到 350 個基點。我認為，如果我們看到收入有所復甦，那可以幫助我們達到區間的下限，也就是 250 個基點，對吧，也就是正常水準的上限。但我認為，考慮到收入持續存在不確定性，如果情況進一步惡化（目前我們還沒有看到這種情況），這將為預算上限帶來一些靈活性。但重要的是，憑藉我們在第三節的出色表現，我們在第四節的開局階段就擁有了一個很好的基礎。

Jonathan Chappell, Evercore ISI.

Jonathan Chappell，Evercore ISI。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Adam, as it relates to salaries, wages, and benefits down sequentially as a percentage of revenue. I'm pretty sure you still put in your annual wage increase on September 1. So was this a function of head count numbers coming down in any type of material manner? And also, as we think about the 3Q to the 4Q transition there, if the wage increase did go into effect on September 1. And would we expect the usual kind of uplift on that line item as it relates to the OR?

謝謝。各位早安。Adam，就薪資、薪資和福利佔收入的百分比而言，按順序下降。我非常確定你仍然會在9月1日提交年度薪資成長申請。那麼，這是否與員工人數實質下降有關呢？此外，當我們考慮第三季到第四季的過渡時，如果薪資成長真的在 9 月 1 日生效的話。我們是否可以預期該項指標會像往常一樣，隨著手術室（OR）的增加而增長？

Yeah. The -- we definitely put a wage increase in effect at the beginning of September as we always do as we continue to perform and we operate in the mid-70s, we think that's very appropriate to continue to reward our employees for the outstanding performance, not just from an operating ratio standpoint. But as Marty mentioned, I continue to be extremely proud of the service metrics that we're offering to our customers the value and that came through in the 16th straight wind of Mastio. But -- so that definitely was in there.

是的。我們肯定會在 9 月初實施加薪，就像我們一直以來所做的那樣，因為我們持續取得良好的業績，而且我們的營運比率在 70% 左右，我們認為這樣做非常合適，可以繼續獎勵我們員工的出色表現，而不僅僅是從營運比率的角度來看。但正如馬蒂所提到的那樣，我仍然為我們向客戶提供的服務指標感到非常自豪，這些指標體現了價值，而馬斯蒂奧連續第 16 場大風也證明了這一點。但是——所以那肯定包含在裡面。

We did continue to see our head count drift down a little bit through the third quarter. As you know, the decrease overall from a total number of full-time employees was down about 6% compared to the third quarter of last year with shipments being down almost 8%, but we expect that we'll continue to see normal attrition as we go through the fourth quarter and probably that head count continued to drift down a little bit. But that always is something that's a big driver of that change. When I look at the average increase in the operating ratio from the third to the fourth quarter. If you really combine -- I like to combine the salaries, wages and benefits and our total operating supplies and expenses, on average, those two main components, they generally increase about 170 basis points.

第三季度，我們的員工人數確實持續略有下降。如您所知，與去年第三季度相比，全職員工總數總體下降了約 6%，出貨量下降了近 8%，但我們預計，隨著第四季度的到來，正常的員工流失現象將繼續出現，員工人數可能會繼續略微下降。但這始終是推動改變的重要因素。當我查看第三季到第四季營業比率的平均成長時。如果把工資、薪水和福利以及我們的全部營運用品和費用加在一起——我喜歡把這兩個主要組成部分加在一起——平均而言，這兩個主要組成部分通常會增加約 170 個基點。

So we continue to have that pressure there. And with revenue pressure, especially continues to get harder and harder, if you want to give service at the levels that we do to manage those costs. But that's one reason why we think that the operating ratio will be a little bit higher than our normal sequential change. The other thing is just looking at our overhead costs, we've been averaging somewhere around $310 million of overhead a quarter. And I think it may be a little bit lower than that, probably in the $305 million to $310 million range in 4Q. But that creates 150, 170 or so basis points of pressure as well.

所以，我們仍然面臨這種壓力。而且隨著收入壓力越來越大，如果你想以我們目前的服務水準來控製成本，那就更難了。但這也是我們認為營運比率會比正常週期變化略高的原因之一。另外，看看我們的營運成本，我們平均每季的營運成本約為 3.1 億美元。我認為實際數字可能會略低於這個數字，第四季可能在 3.05 億美元到 3.1 億美元之間。但這也會產生大約 150 到 170 個基點的壓力。

So really, I think that, that 300, just to be clear, I mean, that's when we gave a range of 250 to 350 for the operating ratio. It's probably 300 to 350, but I think we can continue to perform. And if we get any type of acceleration on the revenue side, obviously, we just outperformed the normal sequential change from 2Q to 3Q, even with revenue pressure. And obviously, we're going to continue to manage costs as tightly as we can in this lower revenue environment, as long as it doesn't jeopardize our ability to be able to respond to a growth environment when that doesn't materialize.

所以，實際上，我認為，300，說清楚一點，我的意思是，當時我們給出的營運比率範圍是 250 到 350。大概是300到350人，但我認為我們還能繼續維持這樣的表現。如果營收方面出現任何加速成長，顯然，即使面臨營收壓力，我們也已經超越了第二季到第三季的正常環比成長。顯然，在當前收入較低的環境下，我們將繼續盡可能嚴格地控製成本，只要這不會危及我們在成長環境未能實現時應對成長的能力。

Tom Wadewitz, UBS.

瑞銀集團的湯姆·瓦德維茨。

Yeah, good morning. I wanted to ask you a bit about, I guess, capacity position. So if you could just let it kind of tell us where you think you're at on terminal capacity. I think you're kind of normalized, you like to have 20 to 25. I don't know if your last comments, maybe are more 25 to 30 or even beyond that. But if you think about how much excess -- and then it seems to me like with some projects, you kind of hold them off. And so I don't know if you count those in the capacity number where you've made the investment, but you haven't bought up the terminal because you really don't need it.

早安.我想問你一些關於產能的問題。所以，如果您能告訴我們您認為您的終端容量目前處於什麼水平就太好了。我覺得你比較正常，你喜歡有 20 到 25 個。我不知道你最後那幾條評論是不是有 25 到 30 條，甚至更多。但如果你仔細想想有多少剩餘——然後在我看來，對於某些項目，你似乎應該暫時擱置它們。所以我不知道你是否把那些你已經投資但還沒有購買碼頭的碼頭算作產能數字，因為你真的不需要它。

So I guess a broader question is really like, well, where do you stand? But do you go for a period where you maybe spend less CapEx and do less on terminals because even though you're long-term focused, you're just so far beyond what would be normal for you in the terminal position for excess Class B?

所以，我想更廣泛的問題是，你的立場是什麼？但是，即使您著眼於長期發展，但對於超額 B 級終端而言，您目前的狀況遠遠超出了正常水平，因此，您是否會選擇在一段時間內減少資本支出，減少在終端方面的投入呢？

Yeah. We're definitely north of -- our target is generally to have 20% to 25% excess capacity. I'd say we're well north of the 30% at this point and probably even above 35% type of range. So I think it is fair to assume that we'll have lower CapEx for our real estate next year. We haven't flushed all of that out completely at this point. And some of the capital expenditures that we have -- it's -- in some cases, repair projects. We've got some projects that are already in the works right now that will continue into next year.

是的。我們目前的產能絕對高於目標——我們的目標通常是維持 20% 到 25% 的產能過剩。我認為我們目前已經遠遠超過 30%，甚至可能超過 35% 的範圍。所以我認為可以合理推斷，明年我們在房地產方面的資本支出將會減少。目前我們還沒有完全清除所有這些問題。我們的一些資本支出—在某些情況下，是維修項目。我們目前有一些正在進行的項目，這些項目將持續到明年。

So that's some that will -- or some spend rather that will always be out there. But I think we're in really good shape with the network where it is. We haven't opened any service centers this year. If you go back over the past couple of years of this freight recession that we've been in, I think we've opened six service centers going back to the end of 2022. So we definitely have built up some capacity.

所以，總是會有一些——或者說，總是會有一些消費——一直存在。但我認為我們目前的網路狀況非常好。我們今年還沒有開設任何服務中心。回顧過去幾年我們所經歷的貨運衰退時期，我認為截至 2022 年底，我們已經開設了六個服務中心。所以，我們確實已經累積了一定的產能。

We do have several service centers that we've completed construction on to your point. When we do that, they're ready to be turned into the operation. And so for that reason, we do start depreciating those facilities. So that depreciation -- incremental depreciation expense is already in our numbers, and that's part of the carrying cost of having that capacity availability for our customers. And that's -- a key part of the value proposition is to always be able to say yes to a customer. And while capacity isn't maybe on everybody's mind right now, hasn't been that long ago when we've seen periods where the environment does turn.

我們確實有幾個服務中心已經按照您所說的完成了建造。這樣做之後，它們就可以投入使用了。因此，出於這個原因，我們開始對這些設施進行折舊。因此，折舊－增量折舊費用已經包含在我們的數字中，這是為客戶提供該產能的持有成本的一部分。而價值主張的關鍵在於始終能夠對客戶說「是」。雖然現在產能可能不是每個人都關心的問題，但就在不久前，我們也曾經歷過環境轉變的時期。

It generally turns very quickly in our industry, and I think we'll see customers focused go right back to who has the capacity not just on the service center side, but with labor and with equipment and who can really respond to those growth needs. And I think that is a big part of our value proposition. And while we feel like we're better positioned than anyone to respond when the market does eventually inflate back to the positive. But yes, so we have already several service centers in ready reserve, so to speak.

我們這個行業的情況變化通常非常快，我認為我們會看到客戶的關注點重新回到那些不僅在服務中心方面，而且在勞動力和設備方面都擁有能力，並且能夠真正響應這些增長需求的公司身上。我認為這是我們價值主張的重要組成部分。雖然我們感覺自己比任何人都更有能力在市場最終回升時做出反應。是的，我們已經有幾個服務中心隨時待命。

We just think it's more appropriate to hold them out versus increasing the number of service centers in operation, which increases linehaul expense, weakens your density even further and puts more pressure on the cost. So it's similar to what we've done in prior cycles before and think we'll see those turn on whenever we see the growth come back.

我們認為，與其增加營運中的服務中心數量（這會增加幹線運輸費用，進一步降低密度，並給成本帶來更大壓力），不如暫緩實施這些措施。所以這和我們之前幾個週期所做的類似，我們認為一旦經濟恢復成長，這些措施就會啟動。

Jordan Alliger, Goldman Sachs.

喬丹·阿利格，高盛。

Yeah. Hi, morning. Yeah. I wanted to come back to demand a little bit. Obviously, things continue to be fairly weak. But can you maybe give some -- your perspective thinking ahead over the next year or so on inflection timing, what could drive it? Are we getting closer? And what's it going to take to get back to tonnage seasonality on track?

是的。早安.是的。我想回來提一點要求。顯然，情況依然相當疲軟。但您能否談談您對未來一年左右轉折點時機的看法，以及可能驅動轉折點的因素？我們是不是越來越接近目標了？要怎樣才能使噸位季節性恢復正常？

Yes, that's a hard one to answer, obviously. We've been ready and waiting for it to turn over the last couple of years, this freight recession, if you look at ISM being below 50 for and -- 32 of the last 35 months, I believe, that's obviously put pressure on everyone and we haven't been immune to the macroeconomic environment. But I'm really pleased with how we've been able to deal with this decrease in network density in terms of controlling what we can control. And that's the message that we give to the team is is control those items, those expenses control our service first and foremost. And we've obviously been able to do that and be able to keep our variable cost as a percent of revenue, the direct variable cost that is consistent with where we were back in 2022 when we were benefiting significantly from the improvement in the network density.

是的，這顯然是個很難回答的問題。過去幾年，我們一直在等待貨運衰退的到來。如果你看看ISM指數，它在過去35個月中有32個月低於50，我相信，這顯然給每個人都帶來了壓力，我們也沒能免受宏觀經濟環境的影響。但我很滿意我們能夠如何應對網路密度下降的問題，尤其是在控制我們能夠控制的方面。我們向團隊傳達的訊息是，控制這些項目、這些開支，首先就能控制我們的服務。顯然，我們已經能夠做到這一點，並且能夠將可變成本佔收入的百分比，即直接可變成本，保持在與我們 2022 年相同的水平，當時我們受益於網絡密度的顯著提高。

So I think that whenever that inflection happens, and we're confident that it will, we stand ready to be able to put on strong profitable growth. I think that's when our model shines the brightest. I think when you look back at an environment like a 2018 or 2021 when that market turns, I feel confident that we're better positioned than anyone else. And I think going back to the last question about capacity, and again, that's on the service center side, but I think there's a misconception in the market just looking at how the allocation of Yellow's service centers have gone since they filed bankruptcy.

所以我認為，無論何時出現這樣的轉折點（我們相信它一定會出現），我們都已做好準備，實現強勁的獲利成長。我認為這正是我們模型優勢最明顯的時候。我認為，當你回顧像 2018 年或 2021 年那樣的市場環境，當市場出現轉機時，我很有信心，我們比任何人都更有優勢。回到上一個關於產能的問題，這仍然是關於服務中心方面的問題，但我認為市場存在一種誤解，只要看看Yellow自申請破產以來服務中心的分配情況就知道了。

We just don't see that there's been a material change in many of the public carriers, total number of service centers when we look at the change from 2022 to the change in where they finished in 2024. So I think there's less capacity out there. And obviously, all of the Yellow service centers didn't get sold to market and -- meaning we're sold outside of the market or remain unsold. So I think what we know was a capacity-constrained environment in 2022 will be even more capacity constrained when we do eventually get into the up cycle. So I think those are the reasons why we feel like we're better positioned than ever to be able to start showing strong profitable growth.

我們從 2022 年到 2024 年的對比來看，並沒有發現許多公共運營商的服務中心總數發生了實質變化。所以我認為目前的產能有所下降。顯然，所有 Yellow 服務中心都沒有在市場上出售——這意味著我們要么在市場外出售，要么仍然無人問津。所以我認為，我們在 2022 年所了解的產能受限環境，在最終進入上升週期時，產能受限的情況會更加嚴重。所以我認為，正是因為這些原因，我們才感覺自己比以往任何時候都更有優勢，能夠開始展現強勁的獲利成長。

Eric Morgan, Barclays.

艾瑞克摩根，巴克萊銀行。

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to, I guess, follow up on the last one on volumes. Obviously, you haven't gotten any help from the macro, and I appreciate all the comments on how you responded and are positioned. But can you just speak to the market share dynamics here just because it does feel like the industry is probably not down quite as much, at least from what we can tell and I don't know, is this something that can stabilize into next year? Or are we just kind of run rating into another year of down volumes?

嘿，早安。謝謝您回答我的問題。我想就上次關於卷數的問題做個後續討論。顯然，宏並沒有給你帶來任何幫助，我很感謝你對你如何應對和定位的所有評論。但您能否談談這裡的市場份額動態，因為感覺這個行業可能並沒有下滑那麼多，至少從我們目前所見來看是這樣，我不知道這種情況明年能否穩定下來？還是我們又要經歷一年的成交量下滑期了？

Yes, Eric, I think that the challenge that we see is that our numbers are just compared to the remaining public carriers. And many of the comparisons leave out the fact that the bird largest carrier went bankrupt, and there was a reallocation of that volume. So if you include that carry in the mix, going back to the end of 2022, then the industry numbers look a little bit different than our relative comparison to them as well. So we -- I think we talked about this on the last quarter.

是的，埃里克，我認為我們面臨的挑戰是，我們的數據只是與其他公共運營商的數據進行比較。許多比較都忽略了一個事實：最大的鳥類運輸公司破產了，而且運輸量也進行了重新分配。因此，如果將這部分利息收入考慮在內，追溯到 2022 年底，那麼產業數據看起來就與我們先前的相對比較略有不同。所以——我想我們在上個季度討論過這個問題。

The best way that I feel like we're looking at market share as I look each year when all the carriers revenues are published in transport topics, and that would include the private carriers as well. And we've been right at 11.8% revenue market share for each of the last 3 years. And that's our strategy is generally in a weak macro environment. We continue to try to maintain market share, maintain our discipline over yields and discipline over our cost and usually, we come out much stronger on the other side.

我認為衡量市場份額的最佳方法是，每年查看運輸業發布的各承運商的收入數據，其中也包括私人承運商。過去三年，我們的市佔率一直維持在 11.8% 左右。這就是我們通常在宏觀經濟疲軟環境下採取的策略。我們繼續努力保持市場份額，保持對收益率和成本的嚴格控制，通常情況下，我們最終會變得更加強大。

So I feel confident about that. When will the market change? I mean that's obviously the big question. I've asked ChatGPT that, and it suggests next year. So who knows? We'll see if AI is right or looking at other economic forecast will prove to be right. But I think that it seems like as we've gone through every quarter this year, the next quarter has been pushed out to show that we would have a full return to normal seasonality. And obviously, we've underperformed seasonality at this throughout each quarter and based on the starting point in October, I think we'll have a similar underperformance from a revenue per day standpoint at least sequentially.

所以我對此很有信心。市場何時會改變？我的意思是，這顯然是個大問題。我已經問過 ChatGPT 這個問題了，它建議明年。誰知道呢？我們將拭目以待，看看人工智慧的預測是否正確，或者其他經濟預測是否最終會被證明是正確的。但我認為，今年每季的情況似乎都是如此，下一個季度都被推遲，以表明我們將完全恢復正常的季節性。顯然，我們每季的業績都低於季節性水平，而且從 10 月的起點來看，我認為至少從每日收入的角度來看，我們接下來的業績也會類似地低於季節性水平。

Typically, the way this would work out was then you start seeing a little increase in demand, you start closing that gap to seasonality, you get back there for a couple of quarters, and then we have significant outperformance. So I'd like to think that when we get into the spring season, next year, by the end, I think this week, we probably are going to have a good indication of where the macro might go. I mean, we get a lot of feedback from customers that continue to have concerns over trade and the impact of the tariff environment. And so if some deal was formed, if you can close that uncertainty loop that many of our customers continue to struggle with perhaps that's when we'll finally start seeing a little bit of recovery. It was obviously there in the first quarter of this year, there was optimism and those were the couple of months that ISM did go back above 50.

通常情況下，事情會是這樣的：你會看到需求略有增長，季節性因素導致的差距開始縮小，在幾個季度內恢復正常水平，然後我們就會有顯著的超額收益。所以我認為，明年春季到來時，到本週結束的時候，我們或許就能對宏觀經濟的走向有比較清楚的了解。我的意思是，我們收到許多客戶的回饋，他們仍然對貿易和關稅環境的影響感到擔憂。因此，如果能夠達成某種協議，如果能夠消除許多客戶仍在努力應對的不確定性，或許我們最終就能開始看到一些復甦的跡象。今年第一季度，這種樂觀情緒顯然存在，而ISM指數也正是在那幾個月重回50以上。

So I think that there's that pent-up sort of demand that's hanging out there. But I think we got up to close that trade loop question before we see our customers really excited about trying to grow their businesses again. But there's puts and takes on all sides with it. I think the tax bill was important, the accelerated depreciation component of that. Hopefully, we'll start seeing some drive to demand. It seems like there's been a few things recently, helping on the supply side within the truckload industry.

所以我認為，存在著一種被壓抑的需求。但我認為，在我們真正看到客戶對再次發展業務充滿熱情之前，我們應該先解決這個貿易循環問題。但各方對此都有各自的考量與妥協。我認為稅收法案很重要，尤其是其中的加速折舊部分。希望我們能看到需求開始成長。最近似乎有一些事情對整車運輸業的供應端有所幫助。

All of those things should help to bring the supply and demand equation back into balance and support our ability to start growing again. But if you just roll normal seasonality out from kind of the current trend where we are, it certainly would lend itself that if we don't have a major inflection that we could be looking at continued declines on a year-over-year basis, at least for the first quarter. And then hopefully, we'll start seeing some compression for there and a true spring recovery, which is what we normally see in our business.

所有這些因素都應該有助於恢復供需平衡，並支持我們重新開始成長的能力。但是，如果從我們目前的趨勢中排除正常的季節性因素，那麼如果沒有重大轉折，我們肯定會看到同比持續下降，至少在第一季是如此。然後，我們希望能夠看到一些壓縮，並迎來真正的春季復甦，這才是我們通常在業務中看到的。

Ravi Shanker, Morgan Stanley.

拉維‧香克爾，摩根士丹利。

Great, thanks. Adam, maybe a couple of follow-ups to what you just said. A, just on October itself, obviously, a lot of questions there, but do you have a sense that the kind of big step down from September to October is something transitory maybe related to the government shutdown? And from what you see right now, do you think that this continues for the entirety of the fourth quarter? And also, you have mentioned the things happening in the TL market. Obviously, we did see a bunch of volume move out of the LTL market to TL. You guys have always been optimistic that will come back to LTL? Are you starting to see any of that happen at this point, the TL market tightening up a little bit.

太好了，謝謝。亞當，或許我可以對你剛才說的話補充幾點。A，就10月份本身而言，顯然有很多問題，但你是否覺得從9月到10月的大幅下滑是暫時的，也許與政府停擺有關？從目前的情況來看，你認為這種情況會持續到第四季結束嗎？另外，您也提到了TL市場正在發生的事情。顯然，我們看到大量貨物從零擔運輸市場轉移到了整車運輸市場。你們一直都樂觀地認為LTL會回歸嗎？現在你是否開始看到這些情況發生，例如TL市場稍微收緊？

Yes. Let me see if I can unpack all that, remember every point. But the October, just the focus on tonnage right now, where the trend would be that would have sequentially down 5% versus September. The 10-year average is a 3% decrease. So again, it's consistent, the September performance, which to point out was an increase, which was nice to see after several months of sequential declines, but that was up 1.3%, so 2 points, if you will, 200 basis points below the 3.3% average increase.

是的。讓我看看能不能把這些都解釋清楚，記住每一個要點。但就目前關注的重點是噸位而言，10 月的趨勢是環比下降 5%，低於 9 月的水平。十年平均降幅為3%。所以，9 月的表現依然穩定，值得一提的是，這是一個增長，這在經歷了幾個月的連續下滑之後令人欣慰，但增長幅度為 1.3%，也就是 2 個基點，比 3.3% 的平均增幅低了 200 個基點。

So it's, I think, a similar underperformance relative to seasonality at the start. And like I mentioned before, if we continue at the same kind of pace of being down, if you carry the 6.5% to 7% decrease throughout the period, that'd really be similar underperformance, if you will, for the full quarter from a revenue perspective as what we've been seeing through the year.

所以，我認為這和賽季初的季節性因素導致的表現不佳類似。正如我之前提到的，如果我們繼續以同樣的速度下滑，如果整個季度都保持 6.5% 到 7% 的降幅，那麼從收入角度來看，整個季度的表現實際上與我們今年以來所看到的表現類似。

So I don't think anything has gotten worse per se, it just sort of seems like things have continued on. And frankly, that's what we were expecting with our third quarter revenue. We weren't anticipating an increase -- normally see an increase there. We thought we would see revenue at $22 million per day and that continued through the full quarter.

所以我覺得事情本身並沒有惡化，只是感覺事情一直在繼續發展。坦白說，這正是我們對第三季營收的預期。我們沒想到會出現成長——通常情況下，那裡都會出現成長。我們預計每天的收入將達到 2,200 萬美元，而且這一數字在整個季度都保持了下來。

So I think the demand is -- it feels consistent to me. But obviously, we haven't seen the inflection that we've all been sort of waiting for. And you don't typically see that in the fourth quarter. I mean, obviously, at this point, October is 23 workdays out of a 62-workday quarter. So a lot of the trend that we have in October will carry the quarter. And December is always a weak month.

所以我覺得需求是──在我看來是始終如一的。但很顯然，我們還沒看到大家一直期待的轉捩點。這種情況通常不會出現在第四節。我的意思是，很顯然，目前來看，10 月是 62 個工作天季度中的 23 個工作天。因此，10月份的許多趨勢將影響整個季度。十二月歷來都是淡季。

So I think a lot of it will be -- can we kind of hold pace to a degree with seasonality from a tonnage standpoint, to sort of keep that current trend consistent through the quarter and then be in a position to hopefully start seeing some type of movement upwards when we get into the first quarter of '26, which is when you would -- for the full quarter, our revenue historically is down another 2% in the first quarter. But by the end of that quarter, that's what will be important that we start seeing some improvement there in demand where you see that spring deal starting. And so that's just something that unfortunately, we continue to kind of wait on.

所以我認為，關鍵在於——從噸位角度來看，我們能否在一定程度上與季節性保持同步，使目前的趨勢在整個季度內保持一致，然後預計在2026年第一季開始看到某種程度的上升趨勢，因為從歷史數據來看，我們第一季的收入通常會下降2%。但到該季度末，重要的是我們能看到需求有所改善，春季促銷活動也將開始。所以很遺憾，這件事我們只能繼續等待。

Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

Scott Group，Wolfe Research。

Hey, thanks. Good morning. Just a thought, so you're not seeing -- with October like a big drop off in government-related activity. That was just sort of just a quick follow-up. And then just like bigger picture, like how are you balancing like long-term pricing discipline versus what's going on with network density. Are we -- are you seeing any change in the competitive dynamic, the pricing environment, just big picture, I'd love to get your thoughts on that.

嘿，謝謝。早安.只是我的一個想法，你可能沒注意到——10 月政府相關活動似​​乎大幅減少。那隻是一個簡短的後續問題。然後從更宏觀的角度來看，你如何平衡長期定價紀律與網路密度之間的關係？您是否看到競爭格局、定價環境，或者說整體情況有任何變化？我很想聽聽您的看法。

Yes. That was one of the pieces of Ravi's questions that I kind of missed. But yes, we don't have any direct government business. I think that, again, it seems like demand is consistent, but it's obviously -- October was a little weaker, especially at the start of the month. The past week has been good. But I think there's probably an indirect effect on the overall economy that could be pressuring things there as well. From a pricing standpoint, continue to see general discipline out there. And obviously, we continue to move forward with our increases.

是的。那是拉維提出的問題中我沒完全理解的部分之一。是的，我們沒有任何直接的政府業務。我認為，需求似乎依然穩定，但顯然——10 月的需求略顯疲軟，尤其是在月初。過去一周過得還不錯。但我認為這可能對整體經濟產生間接影響，從而對那裡的情況帶來壓力。從定價角度來看，市場整體仍保持理性。顯然，我們將繼續推進成長計劃。

We're seeing an increase in yield of about 5% in October, and that's ex fuel. And that's what the change would be if you kind of think about the fourth quarter. If we hit normal seasonality, it would be an increase of right at 5%. So that's kind of our baseline thinking as we go through the period. And I think that having those conversations, obviously, we're in a very competitive environment right now with demand being weak overall for the industry. But we've got a very, I think, the best sales team in the industry that's out there that's having conversations every day with our customers about the value that we provide. And we have a lot of conversations about service failures that customers may be dealing with that are using other carriers. And so -- it's up to us and to our sales team to make sure that we can demonstrate value. And I think we've proven that time and time again to give the service that we do.

我們看到10月份殖利率成長了約5%，而且這還不包括燃料成本。如果你仔細想想第四季的情況，你會發現改變就是這樣。如果達到正常的季節性水平，增幅將達到 5%。所以，這算是我們在這段期間的基本思路。我認為進行這些對話很有必要，因為目前我們身處在一個競爭非常激烈的環境中，整個產業的需求都很疲軟。但我們擁有業界最優秀的銷售團隊，我認為他們每天都與客戶溝通，並探討我們提供的價值。我們經常與使用其他運營商的客戶討論他們可能遇到的服務故障問題。因此，我們和我們的銷售團隊有責任確保我們能夠展現價值。我認為我們已經一次又一次地證明了這一點，才能提供我們這樣的服務。

Our costs are going up every day. We're having more cost inflation this year than what we were originally anticipating. But we've been consistent with the increases that we've asked for across the board. And I think we've been successful there without seeing any major customer loss or anything like that. But I think when you look at an actual performance, our operating ratio, our earnings per share and the relative change, I think a lot gets missed when you see, at least for the public carriers just a comparison to consensus and things of that nature. But while we don't like seeing our earnings per share being negative like they've been, when I look back at the second quarter and the relative comparison, at least for the, I'd say, three public carriers that they are stand-alone entities, their earnings per share was down at least double what ours was. And so I think that kind of proves a couple of things, the importance of being disciplined with yields. But also the cost control that we've been able to display throughout the business and really through the past couple of years that protected our operating ratio protected our earnings and put us in a great spot to be able to grow when the environment is more conducive to growing.

我們的成本每天都在上漲。今年的成本通膨比我們最初預期的要高。但我們一直堅持要求全面提高薪資。我認為我們在這方面取得了成功，沒有任何重大客戶流失或其他類似情況。但我認為，當你觀察實際業績、我們的營運比率、每股盈餘和相對變化時，你會發現，至少對於公共航空公司而言，僅僅與市場普遍預期進行比較就會忽略很多重要資訊。雖然我們不喜歡看到每股盈餘為負，但回顧第二季和相對比較，至少對於三家獨立的公共業者而言，它們的每股盈餘下降幅度至少是我們的兩倍。所以我認為這證明了兩件事，那就是在產量控制方面保持紀律的重要性。但同時，我們在過去幾年裡，在整個業務中展現出的成本控制，保護了我們的營運比率，保護了我們的收益，使我們處於一個非常有利的位置，能夠在更有利於增長的環境中實現增長。

Bascome Majors, Susquehanna.

巴斯科姆少校，薩斯奎哈納。

Thanks for taking my questions. Really to follow up on that theme. Adam, if we kind of run seasonality through, it looks like next year could be potentially the fourth consecutive year of tonnage decline. And certainly, you've gotten no help from the market, but that's abnormal in the history of the company. And as you take a step back and I don't know if you have a direct answer to this, but what is the point in this sort of new weaker or more competitive paradigm where you really think about the balance of service, price and volume growth? And if you need to twist some of those knobs to really drive the long-term outcome that benefits your shareholders?

謝謝您回答我的問題。確實要繼續探討這個話題。亞當，如果我們把季節性因素考慮進去，明年很可能是噸位連續第四年下降。當然，你沒有從市場獲得任何幫助，但這在公司歷史上是不尋常的。當你退後一步思考，我不知道你是否能直接回答這個問題，但在這種新的、競爭更激烈的模式下，你真正思考的是服務、價格和銷售增長之間的平衡，那麼這種模式的意義何在呢？如果需要調整某些參數才能真正推動有利於股東的長期成果呢？

Yes. I think that, obviously, we've had -- I mean, it's been a very disruptive and challenging period over the last three years. And we've heavily invested for future growth opportunities. And we still feel very confident in what our long-term market share opportunities are and believe we've got a long runway for growth. And we wish that the market would have already turned, but we'll have spent $2 billion came over the last three years with volumes being down to expand our network to continue to keep a fleet replacement cycle and be prepared for future opportunities, but that comes at a cost as well. We had a lower CapEx spend this year and very likely that it will be lower overall next year as well.

是的。我認為，很顯然，過去三年我們經歷了一段非常動盪和充滿挑戰的時期。我們已為未來的成長機會進行了大量投資。我們仍然對我們的長期市場份額機會充滿信心，並相信我們還有很長的成長之路。我們希望市場已經好轉，但過去三年銷量下降，我們卻花了 20 億美元來擴大我們的網絡，以繼續保持車隊更新周期，並為未來的機會做好準備，但這同樣需要付出代價。我們今年的資本支出較低，而且明年整體支出很可能也會較低。

So I think that will continue in to pair the capital expenditure plan back to grow into what we have will take some of the pressure off the overhead cost, and we can continue to manage our variable cost as much of a fixed cost business that we run with a network of 261 service centers, probably two-thirds or more of our costs are variable in nature. And I think we've shown good control there. But this down cycle has obviously lasted a lot longer than I think anyone would have expected.

所以我認為，繼續縮減資本支出計劃，使其增長到我們目前的規模，將減輕一些管理費用的壓力，我們可以繼續控制可變成本。我們是一家擁有 261 個服務中心的網路的固定成本企業，但我們的變動成本可能佔總成本的三分之二或更多。我認為我們在那裡展現了良好的控制力。但顯然，這次經濟下行週期持續時間比任何人預期的都要長得多。

And when we go through down cycles, we've been through this multiple times before. And I think a lot of people are ready to write us off and several analysts have through this cycle as well. And I think the growth story is over. But we keep a lot of those old headlines around for both and board material, if you will, and look forward to when the market does eventually inflect back to the positive. I think the key thing is, like I mentioned earlier, the value offer to your customers.

而且，當我們經歷經濟下行週期時，這種情況我們以前也經歷過很多次。我認為很多人都準備放棄我們了，而且在本輪週期中，一些分析師也持同樣的看法。我認為成長的故事已經結束了。但我們保留了許多先前的新聞標題，作為參考資料，並期待市場最終能夠轉正。我認為關鍵在於，就像我之前提到的那樣，你為客戶提供的價值。

We are a little bit of a price premium. But with the control that we have over cost, our go-to-market price is not much higher than our competitors. I would say, typically, when we get in an up cycle as well, the competitors that don't have as much capacity, that's when you see their prices go higher than ours. And so that price gap will continue to close especially for those carriers that, frankly, from a GAAP operating standpoint, there's six other publicly traded LTLs, four of those from a GAAP operating ratio have been operating in the '90s. And so I think that to deliver value to their shareholders, they're going to have to increase prices would be my guess. And so when that happens, that price gap closes, that, too, gives us additional volume opportunity.

我們的價格略高一些。但是，由於我們對成本的控制，我們的上市價格並沒有比競爭對手高出多少。我想說，通常情況下，當我們進入上升週期時，那些產能不如我們的競爭對手，他們的價格就會比我們的價格高。因此，價格差距將繼續縮小，尤其是對於那些從 GAAP 營運角度來看，坦白說，還有六家其他上市的零擔貨運公司，其中四家從 GAAP 營運比率來看，其營運水平已從 90 年代開始。因此，我認為，為了給股東創造價值，他們恐怕必須提高價格。因此，當這種情況發生時，價格差距就會縮小，這也為我們提供了額外的成交量機會。

So I think we'll benefit from the improvement in demand, the improvement or volume opportunities coming from that churn at competitors. And that's historically what we've done, and that's fully what we're expecting at this point as well. Once we can get back into a demand environment that's more conducive to growth and not trying to go out and we want to win market share. We don't want to go out and try to take it, right?

所以我認為，我們將受惠於需求的改善，以及競爭對手人員流失所帶來的銷售提升或成長機會。而這正是我們過去一直在做的，也是我們目前完全預期會發生的事。一旦我們能夠回到一個更有利於成長的需求環境，而不是試圖走出去，我們想要贏得市場份額。我們不想出去嘗試把它拿走，對吧？

Brian Ossenbeck, JPMorgan.

Brian Ossenbeck，摩根大通。

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. Maybe two quick follow-ups for you, Adam. Just the length of haul was coming down a good amount here. I don't know if you can put some context around that as a sign of just the demand environment that you're in? Is there some sort of shifting mix in there? And does it have any sort of implications for how you operate the network or how the industry responds. And then just on the pricing side, I want to get your quick thoughts on dynamic pricing, and we've heard a little bit more about it. I don't know if it's really widespread in use. But I just wanted to get your perspective on how you utilize that, if at all, and then what the rest of the industry is doing as well.

嘿，早安。感謝您回答這個問題。亞當，或許還有兩個後續問題想問你。運輸距離確實大幅縮短了。我不知道你能否就此做一些解釋，將其視為你所處需求環境的一個標誌？這裡面是不是有什麼不斷變化的混合成分？這是否會對網路運作方式或產業因應措施產生任何影響？然後，關於定價方面，我想聽聽您對動態定價的簡要看法，我們已經對此有了一些了解。我不知道它是否真的被廣泛使用。但我只是想了解您是如何利用這一點的（如果有的話），以及業內其他人士也在做什麼。

Yes. On the dynamic pricing side, that's -- we hear some commentary of that, and I think that's something that's probably used in a small way by some carriers and I don't think that we've ever seen a whole lot of positive impact from that. That's not really something that we subscribe to for us. I just feel like it's more important to be consistent customers know what to expect from us. We look at how our costs are changing each year, and that drives what we try to ask for from a cost plus standpoint to continue to support investments that we make, be it in service centers and equipment investments in technologies and those investments in technologies, we've shown that they help us continue to improve our costs.

是的。關於動態定價方面，我們聽到了一些評論，我認為這可能只是部分運營商小規模使用的一種方式，而且我認為我們還沒有看到它帶來多少積極影響。我們並不認同這種觀點。我覺得更重要的是保持一致性，讓客戶知道對我們有什麼期望。我們會觀察每年的成本變化，並以此為依據，從成本加成的角度提出我們的要求，以繼續支持我們的投資，無論是服務中心、設備或技術投資。我們已經證明，這些技術投資有助於我們持續降低成本。

So in some cases, you invest to drive an improvement in your service product and customer engagement, customer stickiness, but then we also have plenty of investments that allow us to operate much more efficiently. And we've kind of proven that by our ability to be able to to manage our variable costs. But I don't think that when you look at some of the carriers historically that have done some of these things that can think back to the first half of 2023. I don't think that it's proven it's weighed out in terms of when you look at earnings per share performance. It just seems like it never really pays to try to be willing to take less of a rate when costs are going up. And I think the earnings per share trends for us and other carriers kind of prove that out. I forget, what was the first part of your question, again?

因此，在某些情況下，我們會進行投資以推動服務產品和客戶參與度、客戶黏性的改進，但我們也有很多投資使我們能夠更有效率地運作。我們已經透過控制可變成本的能力證明了這一點。但我認為，回顧一些航空公司在 2023 年上半年所做的一些事情，就不會得出這樣的結論。我不認為從每股盈餘表現的角度來看，這一點已被證明是可以接受的。成本上漲的時候，試圖降低利率似乎總是得不償失。我認為我們和其他航空公司的每股盈餘趨勢也證明了這一點。我忘了，你問題的第一部分是什麼來著？

Just the implications of shifting length of haul. It seems like it's been coming down for a while (inaudible) the market or a mix thing and how it impacts the business.

只是運輸距離變化的影響。似乎已經下跌了一段時間了（聽不清楚），市場或各種因素的影響以及它對業務的影響。

Yes. I think that's something that has been developing over time, and we expect that it will likely continue to decrease. I think that shows kind of the regionalism as we continue to expect that we'll see growth, especially e-commerce trends that will probably move more and more freight into kind of next day second day [lines].

是的。我認為這是隨著時間推移而逐漸形成的現象，我們預計它可能會繼續下降。我認為這體現了某種區域性特徵，我們預計未來還會出現成長，尤其是電子商務趨勢可能會將越來越多的貨物轉移到隔天達或隔日達服務。[行]。

That's about 70% of our revenue today. And in the most recent quarter, we actually -- our retail business outperformed industrial again. And so that's something that's probably contributing. But yes, I think the other thing is when there's time and supply chain, and obviously, there is right now, there's other forms of transportation that can be used for some of the longer length of haul at a cheaper price point. And those are some of the things that if you go back to 2021, for example, if freight was hitting the shore, we were picking it up. It was converted to truck as soon as possible in the supply chain. And so we were probably getting some longer lead to haul at that point. But I think shippers are able to take advantage of time in the supply chain right now and getting to us later in the process, if you will. So that's partly some of that change that we're seeing.

這大約占我們目前收入的70%。在最近一個季度，我們的零售業務實際上再次超過了工業業務。所以這可能是造成這種情況的原因之一。但是，我認為還有一點，就是當時間和供應鏈都允許的時候（顯然現在就存在這種情況），對於一些長途運輸來說，還有其他運輸方式可以以更低的價格使用。例如，如果你回到 2021 年，如果貨物運抵海岸，我們就會接收這些貨物。在供應鏈中，它盡快被改裝成了卡車。所以，那時候我們可能需要拖運更長的鉛塊。但我認為，目前托運人可以利用供應鏈中的時間優勢，在流程的後期階段將貨物送到我們這裡。所以，這在某種程度上解釋了我們所看到的這種變化。

Jason Seidl, TD Cowen.

Jason Seidl，TD Cowen。

Thanks, operator. Hi, Marty Adam, Jack. morning, guys. I wanted to stick on pricing a little bit. You guys obviously announced a GRI recently, it was 4.9%, I believe, at the prior year. But the market feels like it's weaker this time around. How are you guys gauging sort of compliance to the GRI as we move through quarter right now. Would you think it might be a little bit weaker than last year?

謝謝接線生。嗨，馬蒂、亞當、傑克。早上好，各位。我想在價格方面稍微堅持一下。你們最近顯然公佈了 GRI，我記得上一年是 4.9%。但感覺這次市場行情比較疲軟。你們是如何評估本季以來對 GRI 的遵守情況的？你覺得今年的情況可能會比去年稍弱嗎？

You mean the increase or the request from the customers about the increase?

您指的是價格上漲，還是顧客要求上漲？

The increase that you announced. I think yours takes place November, early November, I believe.

你宣布的增長。我認為你的活動是在十一月，應該是十一月初。

Yes. We were 11 months this year. We've done that in the past. Some years, it's 12 months, but we base our general rate increase off of our cost each year. And we're not getting any kickback so to speak, we explained to our customers what our costs are for equipment real estate, just to generally operate our business. And keep in mind, too, this only affects 25% of our our customer base. This is a general tariff for noncontract. Our contracts are about 75% of our business, and those increases are based on months of the year when they expire. So this only affects 25% of our business.

是的。今年我們在一起11個月。我們過去也這樣做過。有些年份是 12 個月，但我們通常會根據每年的成本來決定費率的整體成長幅度。我們並沒有從中獲得任何回扣，我們已經向客戶解釋了我們設備、房地產等日常營運成本。另外，請記住，這只會影響我們 25% 的客戶群。這是非合約情況下的一般收費標準。我們的合約約占我們業務的 75%，這些成長是根據合約到期月份計算的。所以這只會影響我們25%的業務。

Reed Seay, Stephens.

里德·西伊，史蒂芬斯。

Hey guys, thanks for taking my question. You've had a lot of competitors invest in service and in their network and you have a peer about the spin-off from their parent, maybe getting a little more financial attention. Are you seeing any changes in the market from these investments from either your public or private peers or any impacts from your peers they prepare to spend from the parent company?

各位好，感謝你們回答我的問題。許多競爭對手都在投資服務和網絡，而你的同行則在從母公司分拆出來後，可能獲得了更多的財務關注。您是否觀察到，無論是您的上市公司還是私人企業同行，這些投資對市場都產生了任何變化？或者，您的同行準備從母公司支出資金，是否也產生了任何影響？

Yes. The best information that we can use to compare us versus the others from a service standpoint is all the detailed information that we get from the Mastio study. And we really didn't see a whole lot of movement, if you will, when you look at us or any of the other carriers. The gap between us and the competition stayed as wide as it's ever been.

是的。從服務角度來看，我們能夠用來與其他公司進行比較的最佳信息，就是我們從 Mastio 研究中獲得的所有詳細信息。而且，無論是我們還是其他任何一家航空公司，我們都沒有看到太大的變化。我們與競爭對手之間的差距依然像以往一樣大。

As Marty mentioned, we were -- there's 28 different attributes related to service and value, and we were number one in 23 of those attributes. But I think when I look at the other logos, there really hadn't been a lot of change in the past or at least on the value map in the past two to three years despite there's -- we hear more about the service improvements from investors, and I think we see it in Mastio or hear from customers.

正如馬蒂所提到的，我們——與服務和價值相關的屬性有 28 個不同的屬性，而我們在其中 23 個屬性中排名第一。但我覺得，當我觀察其他標誌時，過去兩三年裡，或者至少在價值圖譜上，並沒有發生太大的變化，儘管——我們從投資者那裡聽到了更多關於服務改進的消息，而且我認為我們在 Mastio 身上也看到了這一點，或者從客戶那裡聽到了這些改進。

So we continue to focus very intently those on that data. Services is more than just being able to pick up and deliver freight on time and without damage. And so those are the things that we work very closely, and we talk about these attributes and how we're performing with every employee throughout the company. And every person lends a hand to give in service, whether it's an external customer or an internal customer. And so -- that's what we focus and what we spend a lot of time and money.

因此，我們將繼續非常密切地關注這些數據。服務不僅僅是按時無損地取送貨物。因此，這些都是我們密切關注的方面，我們會與公司的每位員工討論這些特質以及我們的表現。每個人都伸出援手提供服務，無論是外部客戶還是內部客戶。所以——這就是我們關注的重點，也是我們投入大量時間和金錢的領域。

We're training our employee base to make sure that every experience at Old Dominion is a positive one, and we stay best in the game every day. it's not just best in the game on Saturdays for ESP and Game Day, we want to be the best in the game every day.

我們正在培訓員工，確保在老道明大學的每一位員工都能獲得積極的體驗，並且我們每天都力爭做到最好。我們不僅要在周六的ESP和比賽日做到最好，我們更希望每天都能做到最好。

Ken Hoexter, Bank of America.

Ken Hoexter，美國銀行。

Hey, great. Good morning. So Adam and Marty, maybe I'm still a bit confused by the comments of demand is consistent and similar underperformance as you've seen recently, that commentary, (inaudible), who reported already said things got worse in the LTL world rapidly to start the quarter. Volumes down 11.5% against last October is down 9% comp, which was I think the easiest comp you had as the worst month of the year. So I just want to understand, is it consistent? Is it -- it did something fall off rapidly, I guess, the weight per shipment, I don't know if you want to throw some thoughts there. Is that decrease?

嘿，太好了。早安.所以亞當和馬蒂，我可能仍然對你們最近看到的需求持續低迷以及類似的表現不佳的評論感到有些困惑，（聽不清）報道說，零擔運輸領域的情況在本季度初迅速惡化。與去年 10 月相比，銷量下降了 11.5%，年減了 9%，而 10 月是今年最糟糕的月份，我認為這是最容易比較的比較數據了。所以我想了解的是，這是否一致？是不是——好像有什麼東西迅速下降了，我猜是每次發貨的重量，我不知道你是否想就此發表一些看法。這是下降嗎？

Is that in line with normal shifts? Or is the economy making that a little bit lighter. And then the flow there of the volumes I guess there's some shipper commentary that you're being more aggressive on pricing. I would presume your answer is going to be -- you know us, we never changed that. I'd just like to hear that from you directly. Is there any change on your pricing moves in the market.

這符合正常的輪班嗎？或者說，經濟情勢讓這種情況有所緩解。然後，從貨運量來看，我猜想一些托運人評論說你們在定價方面採取了更激進的策略。我猜你的回答會是──你知道我們，我們從來沒有改變過這一點。我只想直接聽你親口告訴我。你們的定價策略在市場上是否有任何改變？

Yes, there's no change there. It's -- you can see our numbers, and we continue to be consistent with our approach, and I think our year-over-year change in our yield trends kind of bear that out. So no change there. I would just say with respect to the volumes, I mean, look, obviously, they're down and with volumes being down double digits, at least at the start with October, that's tough, and that's coming on the heels of -- we've been down the last couple of years, and it's something we continue to manage through. But I think that my commentary about similar underperformance was, again, just looking at the sequential change in our tonnage relative to kind of what the 10-year average is. And we last year, we were basically the sequential change in October versus September was down 3%.

是的，那方面沒有任何改變。你可以看看我們的數據，我們一直堅持我們的方法，我認為我們收益率趨勢的同比變化也印證了這一點。所以這方面沒有變化。關於銷量，我想說的是，很明顯，銷量下降了，而且銷量下降了兩位數，至少從 10 月初開始就是如此，這很艱難，而且這還是在過去幾年銷量持續下滑之後發生的，這也是我們一直在努力應對的問題。但我認為，我之前對類似業績不佳的評論，只是著眼於我們噸位相對於 10 年平均值的連續變化。去年，我們10月與9月相比，環比變化為下降了3%。

So right now, we're trending down 5%. So that's making that year-over-year change look a little bit worse. And we'll see as things progress through the quarter, whether that changes or not, but just looking at the overall revenue per day and looking at kind of how we've -- whether it's revenue per day or tonnage, if you kind of have a similar underperformance relative to our 10-year average sequential change. That's kind of how I come up with the numbers that we have, be it the tonnage would be down, I don't know, about 11.5%, could be a little bit better. and then the revenue sort of being in that same type of basically, it would be around $1.29 billion.

所以目前來看，我們正處於下跌趨勢，跌幅為 5%。所以，同比變化看起來稍微糟糕了一些。隨著本季的發展，我們將看到情況是否會發生變化，但只要看看每日總收入，看看我們——無論是每日收入還是噸位——相對於我們 10 年平均環比變化，是否會出現類似的業績下滑。這就是我得出這些數字的方法，噸位可能會下降，我不知道，大概下降11.5%，也許會好一點。然後收入也差不多，基本上在12.9億美元左右。

If we continue on with this down 6.5%, 7% or if we underperform at a similar rate to what the underperformance has been this year sequentially that is, but no major -- for us, it just feels about like the same from a macro standpoint and from a customer demand standpoint, the conversations that we continue to have. And like I said earlier, I think that we kind of came into this year or at least, I'd say, in the second quarter, thinking that we needed clarity from a tax deal clarity from an interest rate environment. And then once everything got stirred up with the tariff conversation.

如果我們繼續下跌 6.5% 或 7%，或者如果我們以與今年以來類似的跌幅表現，但不會造成重大影響——對我們來說，從宏觀角度和客戶需求角度來看，感覺都差不多，我們一直在進行這方面的討論。正如我之前所說，我認為我們進入今年，或者至少可以說，進入第二季時，都認為我們需要從稅收協議和利率環境中獲得明確的資訊。然後，關稅問題徹底攪亂了局面。

We felt like, okay, we got to get this settled. And really, it's settled for our customer's sake. And so we've got a couple of those components checked off the list, if you will, at least the interest rate cut cycle has begun. And we'll continue to watch and see if we get further cuts there that should help customers. But like I mentioned earlier, I think the biggest thing is just the overall uncertainty in the environment with respect to if you're trying to make a business decision, not knowing what all the cost inputs might be it's hard to make that decision. And I think that's just got some business owners and managers just kind of paralyzed at this point. And so if we can start getting some clarity there, then I think we can start seeing some change in activity.

我們當時覺得，好吧，我們必須把這件事解決掉。實際上，這都是為了我們的客戶著想。因此，我們已經完成了清單上的幾個組成部分，至少降息週期已經開始了。我們將繼續觀察，看看能否進一步降低成本，這應該有助於消費者。但就像我之前提到的，我認為最大的問題是環境的整體不確定性，如果你要做一個商業決策，卻不知道所有的成本投入是什麼，那就很難做出決定。我認為這讓一些企業主和管理者在這一點上陷入了癱瘓。所以，如果我們能在這方面取得一些進展，我認為我們就能開始看到一些變化。

Jeff Kauffman, Vertical Research Partners.

Jeff Kauffman，Vertical Research Partners。

Thank you very much. Hey, Marty. Hey, Adam, and congratulations on another terrific Mastio finish. I wanted to see if I could unpack a little bit more visibility into what's your different customer buckets are doing? Because when I think about it, industrial production hasn't really gotten incrementally worse in the last couple of months. The ISM hasn't gotten incrementally worse in the last couple of months.

非常感謝。嘿，馬蒂。嘿，亞當，恭喜你又一次在馬斯蒂奧賽道上取得精彩的成績。我想了解一下，我能否更深入地了解你們不同的客戶群都在做什麼？因為仔細想想，近幾個月來工業生產並沒有真正逐漸惡化的趨勢。近幾個月來，ISM 指數並沒有逐漸惡化。

You gave us a little insight that your retail customers were outperforming your industrial customers, but I was wondering if -- however you think of bucketing it, whether it's an industry or kind of a customer group, I don't think e-commerce is down that much. Kind of where is it a little weaker to drive the tonnage down the way it is and kind of which buckets are performing a little bit better or a little bit stronger in this environment. Just help us give us a little context.

您曾透露，您的零售客戶表現優於工業客戶，但我一直在想——無論您如何劃分，無論是按行業還是按客戶群劃分，我認為電子商務的下滑幅度並沒有那麼大。在這種環境下，哪些方面動力稍弱，導致噸位下降？哪些鏟鬥的性能稍好一些，或者說在這種環境下動力更強？請您提供一些背景資訊。

Yes. It's -- we generally put the group or SIC codes into a couple of major buckets. Our industrial revenue is 55% to 60% of revenue and then the retail is about 25% to 30%. And in the most recent quarter, the revenue per day, we were down 4.3% overall for the quarter. The retail, it wasn't wildly different, but was down about 4% compared to the third quarter last year. And the industrial was obviously a little worse, but not a major difference. And part of that goes back to the consistency that we've had in our customer base. And we've talked a lot over the fact that we haven't lost any major customer accounts.

是的。我們通常將行業分類代碼（SIC 代碼）歸類為幾個主要類別。我們的工業收入佔總收入的 55% 到 60%，零售收入約佔 25% 到 30%。在最近一個季度，我們的日均收入整體下降了 4.3%。零售業的情況雖然沒有太大變化，但與去年第三季相比下降了約 4%。工業區的情況顯然稍差一些，但差異不大。部分原因在於我們客戶群的穩定性。我們已經多次討論過，我們沒有失去任何重要客戶帳戶。

We haven't really lost major lines or whatnot and awards from existing customers. And so we've had a lot of continuity there. But obviously, demand for our customers' product has been weaker. Orders have been weaker. I think that's coming through with our weight per shipment trends and that's something that generally is indicative of the macroeconomic environment. And we're seeing weight per shipment that's down in October right now, about 2.3%.

我們並沒有真正失去現有客戶的主要訂單、訂單或獎項。因此，我們在這方面一直保持著很高的連續性。但很顯然，我們客戶的產品需求已經減弱。訂單量有所下降。我認為這一點可以從我們每次出貨的重量趨勢中反映出來，而這通常也是宏觀經濟環境的指標。我們看到，10 月每批貨物的重量下降了約 2.3%。

So that's continued to go lower than is driving that overall change in our tonnage. And obviously, with business levels being down like they are, and you have to say, well, what gives, if you think you're maintaining market share and not losing customers. It is those weaker orders. I think we continue to hear some customers tell us that they're consolidating shipments within the truckload industry. And with that oversupply that has been there, I think that you've had capacity that's been readily available and that opportunity has existed. We've had some pressure in our 3PL business.

因此，這一數字持續低於推動我們噸位整體變化的水平。顯然，在業務水平下滑的情況下，如果你認為自己能夠保持市場份額並且沒有失去客戶，那麼你不得不問，到底是怎麼回事。是那些較弱的訂單。我認為我們不斷聽到一些客戶告訴我們，他們正在整合整車運輸業內的貨物運輸。我認為，由於一直存在產能過剩的情況，所以產能已經唾手可得，機會也一直存在。我們的第三方物流業務面臨一些壓力。

That's about one-third of our overall revenue. Some of that could be the dynamic pricing that if carriers are out there using that to a small degree and some variability. That could be causing some incremental pressure there within the 3PL world, but not seeing it in a major way. It's just some 3PLs are down a little bit more. And I think historically, what we've noticed is 3PL managed business, they're able to leverage their technologies, the carrier connections that they have and help customers consolidate loads into the truckloads.

這大約是我們總收入的三分之一。部分原因可能是動態定價，如果營運商在一定程度上使用動態定價，並且存在一定的波動性。這可能會給第三方物流行業帶來一些漸進的壓力，但目前還沒有看到太大的影響。只是部分第三方物流公司的訂單量下降得更多一些。我認為從歷史角度來看，我們注意到，第三方物流管理的業務能夠利用他們的技術和承運商關係，幫助客戶將貨物合併成整車運輸。

So we feel like more of the pressure is kind of that truckload consolidation on the 3PL world. So it just seems like it's coming from multiple areas, if you will, what's causing the overall weakness in demand. But I think that historically speaking, ISM has been the highest correlated metric with the industry volumes. And with ISM being weak for 32 out of 35 months, that lends itself to our industry volumes being challenged overall, not just us. And again, you got to put Yellow back on the mix from when all of this started. I'd say the other kind of piece is housing and the struggles that have been there.

因此，我們感覺更大的壓力來自於第三方物流領域整車運輸的整合。所以，似乎是多個方面導致了整體需求疲軟。但我認為，從歷史角度來看，ISM 一直是與產業交易量相關性最高的指標。ISM 指數在 35 個月中有 32 個月表現疲軟，這導致我們整個行業的銷售都面臨挑戰，而不僅僅是我們自身。再說一遍，你得把這一切開始時的元素——黃色——重新加回混音裡。我認為另一類題材是住房以及那裡存在的種種問題。

I think that we've noted some correlations between housing, economic factors and volumes as well. And while we don't have a lot of direct exposure there, there's a lot of indirect exposure that we get related to people buying new homes, building new homes, some of the components that go in and things along those lines. So I think it's just been sort of weakness across the board, some mode shift, et cetera, that's contributed to these unfortunate declines that we've had in our business levels.

我認為我們已經注意到住房、經濟因素和交易量之間存在一些相關性。雖然我們在這方面沒有太多直接接觸，但我們透過人們購買新房子、建造新房子以及相關的一些組件等方式獲得了大量的間接接觸。所以我認為，這主要是由於各方面的疲軟、模式轉變等等原因造成的，這些因素導致了我們業務水平的這些不幸下滑。

Richa Harnain, Deutsche Bank.

Richa Harnain，德意志銀行。

Hey, everyone. Thanks for squeezing me in. It seems like the theme of the call is sort of this consistency that you talked about, Adam, you mentioned demand feels fairly consistent, not great, but consistent? And really what stood out this quarter was your control and what you can control again, that variable cost item and optimizing your workforce that helped you deliver a nice cost out for the quarter and a better OR than what we see as your normal sequential deterioration. So maybe you can talk to us about like where there's room for further optimization there? I know you're guiding to something that's worse than normal seasonality. But like what can you do?

大家好。謝謝你擠出時間陪我。這通電話的主題似乎就是你剛才提到的那種穩定性，亞當，你提到需求感覺相當穩定，雖然不算很好，但還算穩定？本季真正突出的是你對可控因素的控制，以及你對可變成本項目的控制，還有你對員工隊伍的優化，這幫助你實現了本季度良好的成本控制，以及比我們看到的正常季度環比惡化更好的運營率。所以，您或許可以跟我們談談，這方面還有哪些可以進一步優化的空間呢？我知道你正在引導人們走向比正常季節性變化更糟糕的情況。但你能做什麼呢？

I think you touched on a few things like the tech-enabled features and things like to drive better cost performance. And I think from like salaries, wages and benefits as a percentage of revenue, you're operating at something like 44% in the 2022, 2023 time frame. Could we see a level like that come back? And then just also, what prompted these cost savings now? I know you employee count came down a bit, but we've been in a freight recession for some time. Why cut costs 3 years into the impending down cycle. That's it.

我認為你提到了一些內容，例如技術賦能的功能以及如何提高成本效益。我認為，從薪資、薪資和福利佔收入的百分比來看，在 2022 年、2023 年期間，你們的營運水準大約在 44% 左右。我們能看到這樣的水平再次出現嗎？那麼，是什麼原因促成了這些成本節約措施呢？我知道你們的員工人數有所減少，但貨運業已經低迷了一段時間了。為什麼要在即將到來的經濟衰退週期三年後削減成本？就是這樣。

Yes. Let's say, what prompted is we focus every day on saving costs. And whether you're in a good environment or bad, that's something that you've got to be focused on. I had a mentor early in my career that said, if you don't focus on saving costs in the good times, you probably don't even know where to start when times get difficult. So that's a focus that we have every day, and it's just part of who we are and it's part of our continuous improvement cycle as well, that's a key column in our foundation for success is we always want to look at ways that we can get better, ways that we can invest in technologies, in particular, that will drive a return for the business. And I think some of what we've seen in those areas, being able to manage our direct variable cost consistent with levels that we had back in 2022, I think, speaks to the importance of that.

是的。假設促使我們這樣做的原因是，我們每天都專注於節省成本。無論你身處良好的環境還是糟糕的環境，這都是你必須關注的事情。我職業生涯早期的一位導師曾說過，如果你在順境中不注重節省成本，那麼在逆境中你可能根本不知道從何入手。所以這是我們每天都關注的重點，它已經成為我們的一部分，也是我們持續改進循環的一部分，這是我們成功的基礎支柱之一，我們始終希望尋找改進的方法，尋找投資技術的方法，特別是那些能夠為業務帶來回報的技術。我認為，我們在某些​​領域看到的一些情況，例如能夠將直接變動成本控制在與 2022 年相同的水平，就說明了這一點的重要性。

We obviously -- we run a tight ship, but you got to give your people the tools to be able to give service while also operating very efficiently. So that will be a continued focus for us. But as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, the good thing in all of this, what's going to drive the long-term improvement, there's two key ingredients to long-term operating ratio improvement, and that's density and yield. And our yield trends have been consistent throughout this freight downturn. But density is obviously what we're missing out on.

我們當然——我們管理嚴格，但你必須給你的員工工具，讓他們能夠在高效運作的同時提供服務。所以這將是我們持續關注的重點。但正如我在準備好的演講稿中提到的，所有這一切的好處在於，能夠推動長期改善的因素有兩個關鍵要素，那就是密度和產量。在整個貨運市場低迷時期，我們的殖利率趨勢一直保持穩定。但很明顯，我們所缺乏的是密度。

We need density back in the system and it will come again. but that's what's really going to create tremendous leverage for us. And I think the immediate opportunity and typically when you see our operating ratio performance when we get into these recovery years, we've got periods where the operating ratio improves 300 or more basis points. And a lot of that comes on the overhead side, when you start getting revenue back in the system and you get leverage on all these costs that we've built up when times have been slower, depreciation, in particular, I think that's where you see the immediate movement in the operating ratio. And I think we've probably got a couple of years of improvement given the level of excess capacity that we have in the service center network right now. But the long-term improvement in operating ratio that we've seen has really been on the direct variable cost side, and that will be the opportunity that we have going forward.

我們需要恢復系統的密度，而密度終會再次恢復。但這才是真正能為我們創造巨大優勢的關鍵。我認為眼前的機會在於，通常情況下，當我們進入復甦階段時，我們的營運比率表現會有所改善，達到 300 個基點或更多。其中許多都體現在營運成本方面，當系統開始恢復收入，並且可以利用之前經濟不景氣時期累積的所有成本（特別是折舊）時，我認為這就是營運比率立即發生變化的地方。鑑於我們目前服務中心網路的過剩產能，我認為我們可能還有幾年的改進空間。但我們看到的營運比率的長期改善實際上體現在直接可變成本方面，而這將是我們未來面臨的機會。

If we're already at record levels and those costs as a percent of revenue, imagine what happens if we can get double-digit volume growth back in the system, which is type of performance that we've seen in prior up cycles. That's where those costs can continue to go much lower as a percent of revenue. But you got to be disciplined. All of these things work together. We couldn't be disciplined with our yields if we didn't have best-in-class service. And so all feeds on one another, but understanding our cost and making sure that we charge appropriately based on the cost to handle freight is what gives us the confidence that we can continue to drive the operating ratio back to where it was and beyond.

如果我們已經達到創紀錄的水平，而這些成本佔收入的百分比，那麼想像一下，如果我們能夠讓系統恢復兩位數的銷售增長會發生什麼，這種業績我們在之前的上升週期中已經看到過。這樣一來，這些成本佔收入的比例就可以繼續大幅降低。但你必須自律。所有這些因素共同作用。如果沒有一流的服務，我們就無法嚴格控制產量。因此，一切都相互促進，但了解我們的成本並確保我們根據處理貨運的成本收取適當的費用，這讓我們有信心繼續將營運比率恢復到以前的水平甚至更高。

Ari Rosa, Citigroup.

Ari Rosa，花旗集團。

Hi, good morning, Adam, Jack, Marty. Thanks for the time and for the question. I just wanted to ask you for a bit of color on the nature of the conversations you're having with your shippers, with your customers. how are they kind of contextualizing some of this volume weakness? You mentioned some of the uncertainties that they're grappling with. Does it feel like they've gotten more confident, less confident? I guess I'm trying to -- again, as a lot of others have done contextualize this decline that we're seeing in October? And then is there any dimension in which they've perhaps gotten a little bit more bold in pushing back on pricing given whether it's competitive pressures pressures that they're feeling themselves on their own margins?

嗨，早安，亞當、傑克、馬蒂。感謝您抽出時間並提出問題。我只是想請您詳細介紹一下您與貨運商和客戶的溝通內容。他們是如何看待目前貨運量疲軟的？你提到了他們正在努力應對的一些不確定因素。感覺他們變得更有自信了，還是更沒自信了？我想再次嘗試——就像許多其他人所做的那樣——將我們在十月看到的這種下滑現象置於特定的背景下進行分析？那麼，考慮到競爭壓力以及自身利潤率所面臨的壓力，他們是否有可能在價格方面變得更加大膽？

I think the sentiment is pretty much the same as it's been all year from a customer confidence standpoint overall, they're all -- most of them are waiting for something positive to happen. And I think if you look at the backdrop of what can be set up for 2026 with lower interest rates, tariffs being consistent -- at least consistent corporate taxes being decided. I think the backdrop is very positive, and they talk positively about those things. And as it relates to price, of course, we have customers that want to talk about price. But our salespeople are trying to go out and basically seek business where customers absolutely have to have on-time service with no claims, which allows us to charge a premium.

我認為從整體上看，消費者信心與今年以來基本上相同，他們中的大多數人都在等待一些積極的事情發生。我認為，如果考慮到 2026 年可以採取的措施，例如降低利率、保持關稅穩定——至少要確定穩定的企業稅——那麼情況就會有所不同。我認為背景非常積極，他們也對這些事情持正面態度。至於價格方面，當然，有些客戶希望討論價格。但是我們的銷售人員正在努力尋找那些客戶必須獲得準時服務且無任何索賠記錄的業務，這樣我們就可以收取更高的費用。

So -- and as Adam said earlier, our customers do have lower weight per shipments. We don't churn a whole lot of customers, but the shipments that we are getting are about 20 pounds less per shipment than they were this time last year. So there's some cautious optimism out there, and we continue to stay in front of these customers and tap what we can do for them, and we're just waiting on the increase in business.

所以——正如亞當之前所說，我們的客戶每次發貨的重量確實更輕。我們並沒有很多客戶流失，但是我們收到的貨物每批比去年同期少了大約 20 磅。所以目前市場存在一些謹慎的樂觀情緒，我們將繼續與這些客戶保持聯繫，盡我們所能為他們服務，我們只是在等待業務成長。

Stephanie Moore, Jefferies.

Stephanie Moore，傑富瑞集團。

Great, good morning. This is Joe Hafling on for Stephanie Moore. I wanted to go back to Marty, something you had mentioned at the top of the call, you mentioned a little bit about how you're using technology around workforce planning, dock management and route planning. We don't often talk about technology in OD. So if we could just unpack what you guys are doing across those main cost buckets? What are the benefits you're already seeing, what inning you think you're in, what's still to come? Just trying to get a better understanding of everything on the tech and productivity side.

太好了，早安。這裡是喬·哈夫林，替史蒂芬妮·摩爾為您報道。我想回到馬蒂的話題，你在通話開始時提到過，你簡要地談到了你如何利用技術進行勞動力規劃、碼頭管理和路線規劃。在組織發展中，我們很少談論科技。那麼，我們能否詳細分析一下你們在這些主要成本類別中所採取的措施？你目前已經看到了哪些好處？你認為自己處於哪個階段？未來還有哪些發展方向？我只是想更好地了解技術和生產力方面的所有事情。

Yes. We normally don't go in detail about our AI activities, but I can tell you some of the things that we already have in use today some of it being in cybersecurity with e-mail protection platforms as we get into more bot communications with our customers, we have to learn to manage that better to keep cyber out from an operation safety aspect. We have implemented a line haul plan creation that allows us to study our loads quicker, obtain more pounds per truck as we move along we analyze from a safety standpoint, we analyze our Lytx cameras with videos so that we can coach our drivers more efficiently and increase our safety dealing automation.

是的。我們通常不會詳細介紹我們的人工智慧活動，但我可以告訴你們我們目前正在使用的一些東西，其中一些是網路安全方面的，例如電子郵件保護平台。隨著我們與客戶進行更多機器人通信，我們必須學會更好地管理這些通信，以從營運安全方面防止網路安全問題。我們實施了乾線運輸計劃制定，使我們能夠更快地研究貨物，隨著我們不斷推進，每輛卡車的運力也會增加。我們從安全角度進行分析，透過視訊分析 Lytx 攝影機，以便更有效地指導我們的司機，並提高我們的安全處理自動化。

We have AI in our billing automation, which lowers our cost, content creation for our sales, our people for deeper customer engagement, and we also use AI for capabilities related to basic application development. But -- and things that we're looking at in the future for that, that we're currently researching is equipment utilization, predictive equipment maintenance, training for mechanics, just to name a few weather conditions, so we can take better routes during the winter months. And that's just to name a few of some of the things that we're looking at. But all of these things we look at, we expect a return on investment. So we'll talk about them more as we see that happen.

我們在計費自動化方面應用了人工智慧，這降低了我們的成本；在銷售內容創作方面，我們利用人工智慧來幫助員工更深入地與客戶互動；此外，我們還利用人工智慧來實現與基本應用程式開發相關的功能。但是——我們未來正在研究的一些方面，例如設備利用率、預測性設備維護、機械師培訓，以及天氣狀況等等，以便我們在冬季能夠選擇更好的路線。以上只是我們正在研究的一些方面。但我們關注所有這些方面，都期望獲得投資回報。所以，隨著事態發展，我們會更多地討論這些問題。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Marty Freeman for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我謹將會議交還給馬蒂·弗里曼，請他作總結發言。

Thank you all today for your participation. We appreciate all your questions. And please feel free to give us a call if you have anything further. Thank you, and I hope you have a great day.

感謝各位今天的參與。感謝您提出的所有問題。如果您還有任何其他疑問，請隨時致電我們。謝謝，祝您今天過得愉快。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議已經結束。感謝各位參加今天的報告會。您現在可以斷開連線了。