奧多明尼昂貨運 (ODFL) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to the Old Dominion Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions)

您好，歡迎來到 Old Dominion 第四季財報電話會議和網路廣播。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to hand the call over to Drew Andersen. Please go ahead.

我現在想將電話轉交給德魯安德森。請繼續。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to the Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Conference Call for Old Dominion Freight Line.

謝謝。早安，歡迎參加 Old Dominion Freight Line 2023 年第四季和全年電話會議。

Today's call is being recorded and will be available for replay beginning today and through February 7, 2024, by dialing 1 (877) 344-7529, access code 2607922. The replay of the webcast may also be accessed for 30 days at the company's website.

今天的通話正在錄音中，從今天開始直至 2024 年 2 月 7 日，可透過撥打 1 (877) 344-7529（訪問代碼 2607922）重播。網路廣播的重播也可在公司網站上觀看 30 天。

This conference call may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements, among others, regarding Old Dominion's expected financial and operating performance. For this purpose, any statements made during this call that are not statements of historical fact may be deemed to be forward-looking statements. Without limiting this foregoing, the words believes, anticipates, plans, expects and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements.

本次電話會議可能包含 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述，包括有關 Old Dominion 預期財務和經營業績的陳述等。為此目的，本次電話會議期間所做的任何非歷史事實陳述的陳述都可能被視為前瞻性陳述。在不限制上述規定的情況下，「相信」、「預期」、「計劃」、「期望」和類似表達等詞語旨在識別前瞻性陳述。

You are hereby cautioned that these statements may be affected by the important factors, among others, set forth in Old Dominion's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission and in this morning's news release. And consequently, actual operations and results may differ materially from the results discussed in the forward-looking statements. The company undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

特此提醒您，這些陳述可能會受到 Old Dominion 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件以及今天上午的新聞稿中所述的重要因素的影響。因此，實際營運和結果可能與前瞻性陳述中討論的結果有重大差異。本公司不承擔公開更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務，無論是由於新資訊、未來事件或其他原因。

As a final note, before we begin, we welcome your questions today, but we ask in fairness to all that you limit yourself to just one question at a time before returning to the queue. Thank you for your cooperation.

最後一點，在我們開始之前，我們歡迎您今天提出問題，但我們公平地要求您在返回隊列之前一次只能回答一個問題。謝謝您的合作。

At this time, for opening remarks, I would like to turn the conference over to the company's President and Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Marty Freeman. Please go ahead, sir.

現在，我想請公司總裁兼執行長馬蒂·弗里曼先生致開幕詞。請繼續，先生。

Good morning, and welcome to our fourth quarter conference call. With me today is Adam Satterfield, our CFO. After some brief remarks, we will be glad to take your questions.

早上好，歡迎參加我們的第四季電話會議。今天和我在一起的是我們的財務長 Adam Satterfield。簡短發言後，我們將很樂意回答您的問題。

Old Dominion's fourth quarter financial results reflect continued softness in the domestic economy, which is similar to how the economic environment fell throughout much of 2023. As a result, the rebound in volumes that we had anticipated back in the spring never fully materialized.

Old Dominion 的第四季財務表現反映出國內經濟持續疲軟，這與 2023 年大部分時間經濟環境的下滑類似。因此，我們在春季預期的銷量反彈從未完全實現。

Despite the softness in the economy and weaker-than-expected volumes, the OD team faithfully executed on the same long-term strategic plan that has guided us through the ups and downs of the economic cycle many times before.

儘管經濟疲軟且銷售低於預期，OD團隊仍忠實執行了先前多次引導我們度過經濟週期起伏的長期策略計畫。

During the fourth quarter, our LTL tons per day decreased 2% as compared to the fourth quarter of 2022. Although our LTL shipments per day and overall market share improved, we also improved the quality of our revenue during the quarter as well, which contributed to an increase in both our quarterly revenue and earnings per diluted share for the first time in 2023.

第四季度，我們的每日零擔噸數較2022 年第四季度下降了2%。儘管我們的每日零擔發貨量和整體市場份額有所提高，但我們也提高了該季度的收入質量，這為我們做出了貢獻2023 年我們的季度營收和稀釋每股盈餘首次實現成長。

We believe that underlying demand for our LTL service remained consistent in the quarter, which corresponds to the consistency in our volume trends. The stability of our volumes also reflects our ongoing ability to deliver best-in-class value proposition. We were pleased to provide an on-time service performance of 99%, and a cargo claims ratio of 0.1% during the quarter, which also supported the ongoing execution of our yield management initiatives.

我們認為，本季零擔服務的基本需求保持一致，這與我們的數量趨勢的一致性相對應。我們銷售的穩定性也反映了我們持續提供一流價值主張的能力。我們很高興在本季度提供了 99% 的準時率和 0.1% 的貨物索賠率，這也支持了我們收益管理計劃的持續執行。

We have said many times before that long-term improvement in our operating ratio is dependent upon a consistent improvement in density and yield, both of which generally require the support of a positive macro environment. While our network density was challenged this year, we improved our yield by maintaining our consistent cost-based approach to our pricing. This approach focuses on improving the profitability of each customer through yield increases that are designed to offset our cost inflation and support further investments in capacity and technology.

我們之前多次說過，開工率的長期改善取決於密度和良率的持續改善，而這兩者一般都需要良好的宏觀環境的支撐。雖然我們的網路密度今年受到了挑戰，但我們透過保持一致的基於成本的定價方法提高了產量。這種方法的重點是透過產量增加來提高每個客戶的獲利能力，旨在抵消我們的成本通膨並支持對產能和技術的進一步投資。

We continue to invest significantly during the 2023, as we remain confident in our ability to win market share over the long term. Our capital expenditures totaled $757.3 million for the year, of which $291.1 million was spent for the ongoing expansion of our service center network. We opened two new service centers in 2023 and have several others under construction and nearly complete that could be opened quickly once the demand environment improves.

我們在 2023 年繼續進行大量投資，因為我們對長期贏得市場份額的能力充滿信心。本年度我們的資本支出總計 7.573 億美元，其中 2.911 億美元用於持續擴展我們的服務中心網路。我們在 2023 年開設了兩個新的服務中心，還有其他幾個服務中心正在建設中，並且即將完工，一旦需求環境改善，這些服務中心可以很快開業。

Our team knows firsthand how to quickly the demand environment can change in the LTL industry, and we are very experienced at growing our company without sacrificing the quality of our service. To do so, however, requires us to maintain a certain amount of excess capacity in our service center network. We are pleased to currently have approximately 30% excess capacity in our network, and we have the ability to expand it further as needed to help ensure our network is never limiting factor to our growth.

我們的團隊親身了解如何快速改變零擔產業的需求環境，並且我們在不犧牲服務品質的情況下發展公司方面擁有豐富的經驗。然而，要做到這一點，我們需要在服務中心網路中保持一定的過剩容量。我們很高興目前我們的網路中有大約 30% 的過剩產能，我們有能力根據需要進一步擴展它，以幫助確保我們的網路永遠不會成為我們成長的限制因素。

While the investments in our service center network, our equipment and our technology further improved the overall quality of our service in 2023, the best investment we made was in the OD family of employees. We improved the capabilities of our team and strengthened our unique company culture, which has defined OD for many years. Our long-term strategic plan may sound simple on the surface, but no one in our industry has been able to replicate our success because they do not have our people or our culture.

雖然對服務中心網路、設備和技術的投資進一步提高了 2023 年我們服務的整體質量，但我們所做的最佳投資是對 OD 員工家族的投資。我們提高了團隊的能力，並強化了我們獨特的公司文化，這種文化多年來一直定義著 OD。我們的長期策略計劃表面上聽起來很簡單，但我們行業中沒有人能夠複製我們的成功，因為他們沒有我們的員工或我們的文化。

Our team is fully committed to our proven business model. And as a result, we believe we are strongly positioned to respond to a positive inflection in demand once the domestic economy begins to improve. We are confident in the opportunities that lie ahead, and it is our belief, our team's focus on delivering superior service at a fair price will support our ability to produce further profitable growth while increasing shareholder value.

我們的團隊完全致力於我們經過驗證的商業模式。因此，我們相信，一旦國內經濟開始改善，我們就有能力應對需求的正向改變。我們對未來的機會充滿信心，我們相信，我們的團隊專注於以公平的價格提供優質服務，這將支持我們實現進一步獲利成長，同時增加股東價值的能力。

I want to thank you today for joining us this morning, and now Adam will discuss our fourth quarter financial results in greater detail.

我想感謝您今天早上加入我們，現在亞當將更詳細地討論我們第四季度的財務表現。

Thank you, Marty, and good morning. Old Dominion's revenue for the fourth quarter of 2023 was $1.5 billion, which was a 0.3% increase from the prior year. This slight increase in revenue was primarily due to a 3.0% increase in LTL revenue per hundredweight that more than offset the 2.0% decrease in LTL tons per day. Our quarterly operating ratio was 71.8% and earnings per diluted share were $2.94, which was a 0.7% increase from last year.

謝謝你，馬蒂，早安。 Old Dominion 2023年第四季營收為15億美元，較上年成長0.3%。收入的小幅增長主要是由於每英擔零擔收入增長了 3.0%，抵消了每天零擔噸數下降 2.0% 的影響。我們的季度營運率為 71.8%，稀釋後每股收益為 2.94 美元，比去年增長 0.7%。

As Marty previously mentioned, this was the first quarter with an increase in both revenue and earnings per diluted share since the fourth quarter of last year. While it certainly has not felt like one of our record years from the past, $2.94 also represents a new company record for fourth quarter earnings per diluted share.

正如馬蒂之前提到的，這是自去年第四季以來收入和稀釋後每股收益首次出現成長的季度。雖然這肯定不像我們過去的創紀錄年份，但 2.94 美元也代表了該公司第四季度攤薄每股收益的新紀錄。

On a sequential basis, our revenue per day for the fourth quarter increased 1.9% when compared to the third quarter of 2023, with LTL tons per day increasing 0.6%, and LTL shipments per day decreasing 0.3%. For comparison, the 10-year average sequential change for these metrics includes a decrease of 0.8% in revenue per day, a decrease of 1.6% in tons per day and a decrease of 3.4% in shipments per day.

環比來看，我們第四季的每日營收較 2023 年第三季成長 1.9%，每日零擔噸數成長 0.6%，每日零擔出貨量下降 0.3%。相比之下，這些指標的 10 年平均連續變化包括每天收入下降 0.8%、每天噸數下降 1.6% 以及每天發貨量下降 3.4%。

The monthly sequential changes in LTL tons per day during the fourth quarter were as follows: October decreased 0.7% as compared to September. November decreased 0.6% from October and December decreased 4.8% as compared to November.

第四季每日零擔噸數月環比變動如下：10 月環比 9 月下降 0.7%。 11月較10月下降0.6%，12月較11月下降4.8%。

The 10-year average change for these respective months is a decrease of 3.5% in October, an increase of 3.5% in November and a decrease of 8.0% in December.

這些月份的 10 年平均變化為：10 月下降 3.5%，11 月增長 3.5%，12 月下降 8.0%。

For January, we expect our revenue per day will decrease approximately 3.1% as compared to January of 2023, with a decrease of approximately 5.1% in our LTL tons per day. These numbers could be plus or minus 10 or 20 basis points, depending upon today's revenue performance. We expect our revenue per hundredweight, excluding fuel surcharges, will increase approximately 6.4%, which is generally in line with normal seasonality for this metric. We will file the actual revenue-related details for January in our Form 10-K.

與 2023 年 1 月相比，我們預計 1 月的每日收入將減少約 3.1%，每天的零擔噸數將減少約 5.1%。這些數字可能是正負 10 或 20 個基點，具體取決於今天的收入表現。我們預計每英擔收入（不包括燃油附加費）將成長約 6.4%，這與該指標的正常季節性基本一致。我們將在 10-K 表格中提交 1 月份的實際收入相關詳細資料。

Our operating ratio increased 60 basis points to 71.8% for the fourth quarter. We continued to operate efficiently during the quarter despite the lack of network density, but our direct operating costs increased as a percent of revenue. The increase in these costs was primarily due to an increase in our insurance and claims expense as a percent of revenue, which is attributable to changes in the annual adjustment we record in our fourth quarter each year relating to our third-party actuarial reviews.

第四季我們的營運比率成長了 60 個基點，達到 71.8%。儘管網路密度不足，我們在本季度繼續高效運營，但我們的直接營運成本佔收入的百分比有所增加。這些成本的增加主要是由於我們的保險和理賠費用佔收入的百分比增加，這是由於我們每年第四季度記錄的與第三方精算審查相關的年度調整發生變化。

We were otherwise pleased with our control over direct operating costs during the quarter, as our team did a nice job of matching labor to current revenue trends. While our LTL shipments per day increased, our average head count was down 4.1% when compared to the fourth quarter 2022. We currently believe that our workforce is appropriately sized for our current shipment trends but we will likely need to add to our workforce this year as volumes begin to improve.

除此之外，我們對本季直接營運成本的控制感到滿意，因為我們的團隊在將勞動力與當前收入趨勢相匹配方面做得很好。雖然我們每天的零擔貨運量有所增加，但與2022 年第四季相比，我們的平均人數下降了4.1%。我們目前認為，我們的員工規模適合當前的貨運趨勢，但今年我們可能需要增加員工隊伍隨著成交量開始改善。

Our overhead cost also increased as a percent of revenue despite our best efforts to control discretionary spending. Depreciation expense as a percent of revenue increased 80 basis points when compared to the fourth quarter 2022, due primarily to the execution of our 2023 capital expenditure plan. The increases in depreciation and other overhead costs were partially offset by a 90 basis point improvement in our miscellaneous expenses as a percent of revenue, which included $15.1 million of gains on the disposal of property and equipment.

儘管我們盡最大努力控制可自由支配支出，但我們的管理費用佔收入的百分比仍然有所增加。與 2022 年第四季相比，折舊費用佔收入的百分比增加了 80 個基點，這主要是由於我們 2023 年資本支出計畫的執行。折舊和其他間接費用的增加被我們的雜項費用佔收入的百分比提高了 90 個基點所部分抵消，其中包括財產和設備處置收益 1,510 萬美元。

Old Dominion's cash flow from operations totaled $436.7 million for the fourth quarter and $1.6 billion for the year, while capital expenditures were $105.9 million and $757.3 million for the same respective periods. We utilized $85.5 million and $453.6 million of cash for our share repurchase program during the fourth quarter and 2023, respectively, while cash dividends totaled $43.6 million and $175.1 million for the same periods. We were pleased that our Board of Directors approved a 30% increase for the quarterly dividend to $0.52 per share for the first quarter of 2024.

Old Dominion 第四季和全年的營運現金流分別為 4.367 億美元和 16 億美元，而同期資本支出分別為 1.059 億美元和 7.573 億美元。我們在第四季和 2023 年分別使用了 8,550 萬美元和 4.536 億美元的現金用於股票回購計劃，而同期現金股利總計為 4,360 萬美元和 1.751 億美元。我們很高興董事會批准將 2024 年第一季的季度股息增加 30% 至每股 0.52 美元。

Our effective tax rate for the fourth quarter of 2023 was 24.1% as compared to 25.0% in the fourth quarter of 2022. We currently anticipate our annual effective tax rate to be 25.6% for 2024.

我們 2023 年第四季的有效稅率為 24.1%，而 2022 年第四季為 25.0%。我們目前預計 2024 年的年度有效稅率為 25.6%。

This concludes our prepared remarks this morning. Operator, we'll be happy to open the floor for questions at this time.

我們今天早上準備好的演講到此結束。接線員，我們很樂意在此時開放提問。

(Operator Instructions) Today's first question comes from Bruce Chan with Stifel.

（操作員說明）今天的第一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Bruce Chan。

This is Matt on for Bruce Chan. You've highlighted some market share gains in the past couple of quarters here post-Yellow, and wanted to get your sense of to what extent do you expect these to continue as more competitors bring on new capacity?

這是陳小龍的馬特。您強調了在黃色之後的過去幾個季度中一些市場份額的增長，並希望了解隨著更多競爭對手帶來新產能，您預計這些增長會持續到什麼程度？

Sure. We -- certainly our long term story has been winning market share over time, and we believe we'll continue to win in market share into the future as well, primarily based on the value proposition that we offer a superior service at a fair price. And as we mentioned earlier, our on-time service continued to be 99% during the quarter, and our claims ratio is at 0.1%, and that is what's driven our market share over time.

當然。當然，我們的長期故事一直是隨著時間的推移贏得市場份額，我們相信我們也將在未來繼續贏得市場份額，這主要基於我們以公平的價格提供優質服務的價值主張。正如我們之前提到的，我們的準時服務在本季度繼續保持在 99%，我們的索賠率為 0.1%，這也是我們不斷提升市場份額的原因。

Typically, we -- when we're in a slower macro environment like we've been in, our market share tends to be flatter. But once we start seeing a recovery in the economy, that's when we think our model shines the brightest. If you look back in periods past, when the up cycle begins, that's when we've got plenty of network capacity, the job that we've done with managing our people capacity and equipment capacity as well, combining with the real estate positions us to capitalize on those upswings. And that's when in the past, we've been able to outgrow the other publicly traded peers anywhere from 600 to 1,000 basis points.

通常情況下，當我們處於像我們一樣放緩的宏觀環境中時，我們的市場份額往往會更加平坦。但一旦我們開始看到經濟復甦，我們就會認為我們的模型最閃耀。如果你回顧過去的時期，當上升週期開始時，那時我們擁有充足的網路容量，我們在管理人員容量和設備容量方面所做的工作，以及我們的房地產地位利用這些上升趨勢。過去，我們的成長速度已經超過其他上市同業 600 到 1,000 個基點。

So we're still waiting on that positive inflection in the economy, but I feel like we're better positioned than we've ever been to capitalize on it when the upswing begins.

因此，我們仍在等待經濟的積極變化，但我覺得當經濟復甦開始時，我們比以往任何時候都更有能力利用它。

Great. And as a quick follow-up, how do you see industry capacity this year versus last year? And do you have a quick view of what percentage of latent off-line capacity might return as we progress throughout this year?

偉大的。作為快速跟進，您如何看待今年的產業產能與去年相比？隨著我們今年的進展，您是否可以快速了解潛在離線產能的恢復百分比是多少？

Well, I think that there's a lot of settling that still needs to occur post the Yellow closing their doors. But if you go back a year or more, we were a capacity-constrained industry, and I feel like once all the dust settles, capacity is shifting around a bit but will continue to be a capacity-constrained industry. All of those service centers will not end up in the market, yet all of those freight shipments will be and will have to be handled by someone. So I feel like, especially once the economy recovers, we'll most likely be viewed as a capacity-constrained industry once again.

嗯，我認為在黃隊關門後仍然需要進行很多解決。但如果你回顧一年或更長時間，我們是一個產能受限的行業，我覺得一旦塵埃落定，產能會發生一些變化，但仍將是一個產能受限的行業。所有這些服務中心最終都不會進入市場，但所有這些貨運都將並且必須由某人處理。所以我覺得，特別是一旦經濟復甦，我們很可能會再次被視為產能受限的產業。

The next question comes from Ravi Shanker with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Ravi Shanker。

Maybe I have a follow-up on that. And I would just love to get your thoughts on how the Yellow asset auctions stand out versus your expectations? And maybe a broader question there is based on that. Do you think the next up cycle is going to play out differently with the redistribution of capacity from one entity like Yellow that was constantly seeding share over several years to a handful of entities now trying to gain share? Do you think that changes the competitor dynamics at all?

也許我對此有後續行動。我很想聽聽您對黃色資產拍賣如何脫穎而出以及您的預期有何看法？也許在此基礎上還有一個更廣泛的問題。您是否認為下一個上升週期會出現不同的結果，因為產能會從像 Yellow 這樣多年來不斷播種份額的實體重新分配到現在試圖獲得份額的少數實體？您認為這會改變競爭對手的動態嗎？

I don't think so. Just like I mentioned before, we've been able to win market share over the long term based on the quality of our service, first and foremost, on the value proposition that we're offering our customers. And we believe that, that same formula will continue to win share for us, as we go forward, it takes having capacity to be able to continue to grow. And that's why we've always invested ahead of the growth curve and tried to target having about 25% excess capacity in the service center network at all times.

我不這麼認為。正如我之前提到的，我們能夠長期贏得市場份額取決於我們的服務質量，首先也是最重要的是我們為客戶提供的價值主張。我們相信，同樣的模式將繼續為我們贏得份額，隨著我們的前進，需要有能力才能繼續成長。這就是為什麼我們總是在成長曲線之前進行投資，並始終努力將服務中心網路的產能過剩目標定為 25% 左右。

And so right now, we mentioned that we're at about 30% excess capacity. So we're a little north of where we've historically been, but we believe it's always important to consistently invest and keep that focus on the long-term opportunities and that certainly played to our benefit in the past. And it's hard to say with the Yellow process, with their service centers. But net-net, we believe that there would be some exit of capacity, and I think that's generally what we'll end up seeing once all the dust has settled on things.

所以現在，我們提到我們的產能過剩大約是 30%。因此，我們與歷史上的水平有些差距，但我們相信持續投資並專注於長期機會始終很重要，這在過去肯定對我們有利。對於黃色流程和他們的服務中心來說，這很難說。但是，我們相信，產能將會減少，而且我認為，一旦塵埃落定，這通常就是我們最終會看到的情況。

And we obviously took a look at those service centers early on, didn't end up with anything. And that's why given the state of where our network is today and the opportunities that we continue to have to expand it, and we felt like just given the cost that -- you can see now in hindsight that it was better for us to just maintain control, our network is in a great spot as it is, but we continue to have the ability to control when we add to the network in time, where we decide to add the facilities and how exactly we want to build them. So we felt like continuing with the same formula that's worked for so many years for us. We want to keep executing on that same business plan as we go forward.

顯然，我們很早就考察了這些服務中心，但最終沒有得到任何結果。這就是為什麼考慮到我們網絡今天的狀況以及我們繼續擴展它的機會，而且我們覺得考慮到成本——你現在可以事後看到，對我們來說最好只是維持控制，我們的網絡目前處於一個很好的位置，但我們仍然有能力控制何時及時添加到網路、決定在哪裡添加設施以及我們想要如何建造它們。因此，我們想繼續沿用我們多年來行之有效的公式。我們希望在前進的過程中繼續執行相同的業務計劃。

The next question is from Chris Wetherbee with Citigroup.

下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Chris Wetherbee。

So wanted to talk a little bit sort of near term and get a sense of how things are progressing, I guess, first quarter. We've seen some weather here in January. I think typically, OR gets a little bit worse as we go from 4Q to 1Q, but maybe you can put some -- help us a little bit.

所以想談談近期的情況，了解第一季事情的進展。一月我們在這裡看到了一些天氣。我認為通常情況下，當我們從第四季度到第一季時，OR 會變得更糟，但也許你可以提供一些幫助我們一點。

I think there were some moving parts, in particular, in the fourth quarter with the gain as well as some of the insurance actuarial stuff that was going on there. So just kind of get a sense of how you're thinking about the first quarter both from sort of an operational perspective but also from an OR standpoint?

我認為有一些活動部分，特別是在第四季度，收益以及那裡正在進行的一些保險精算工作。那麼，從營運角度和 OR 角度了解您如何看待第一季？

Yes. It's -- winter weather comes every year, and it's something that we contend with, and is generally in our averages. So we don't view that as a onetime event. But a couple of weeks ago, we -- us and everyone else had to deal with weather issues and made up for a little bit of lost ground with that last week. And then we've got a short week to finish out the month, the year. So we'll see where the final numbers land.

是的。每年都會有冬季天氣，這是我們要應對的事情，通常是我們的平均情況。因此，我們不認為這是一次性事件。但幾週前，我們和其他所有人都必須應對天氣問題，並彌補了上週的一些損失。然後我們只有短短一週的時間來完成這個月、這一年的工作。所以我們將看看最終的數字會落在哪裡。

But as of right now, our shipments per day are trending pretty much in line with where we thought they would be. I gave the 10-year average earlier with respect to the sequential changes from a shipments per day standpoint. Our December was 5.9% below November, that's better than the 10-year average. But over the last 5 years, we've kind of changed -- we've given one extra day of paid time off around the holidays. And so our 5-year average in December is actually a decrease of 6.5%.

但截至目前，我們每天的出貨量趨勢與我們的預期基本一致。我早些時候給出了從每日發貨量的角度來看連續變化的 10 年平均值。 12 月比 11 月低 5.9%，優於 10 年平均值。但在過去 5 年裡，我們發生了一些變化——我們在假期前後多了一天帶薪休假。因此，我們 12 月的 5 年平均值實際上下降了 6.5%。

So we were a little bit better than that revised average that changes the month a little bit, not so much the quarter. But looking at January, the 5-year average sequential change is a plus 0.3% increase, and so we'll see where we end up. But I feel like that certainly that number has been impacted a little bit, looks like it's going to come in below that overall sequential number that we would go up a bit. But how much will we get back in February, where we see kind of a traditional bump and then March will continue to be the important month. That's a month where we're typically up about 5% sequentially over February.

因此，我們的表現比修正後的平均值好一點，修正後的平均值在月份上略有變化，但在季度上變化不大。但看看 1 月份，5 年平均連續變化增加了 0.3%，所以我們將看看最終結果如何。但我覺得這個數字肯定受到了一點影響，看起來它會低於我們會稍微上升的整體連續數字。但我們會在二月得到多少回報，我們會看到傳統的上漲，然後三月將繼續是重要的月份。這個月我們的股價通常比 2 月環比上漲 5% 左右。

And if you remember, we anticipated in 2023 that we would see a recovery in the spring. And unfortunately, it didn't materialize like we thought it would, but that will kind of be the key point for this quarter is will we start seeing that reacceleration in our business levels, and that obviously dictate a lot in terms of the operating ratio and general performance for the first quarter.

如果您還記得的話，我們預計 2023 年春季將會出現復甦。不幸的是，它並沒有像我們想像的那樣實現，但這將是本季度的關鍵點是我們是否會開始看到我們的業務水平重新加速，這顯然在運營比率方面決定了很多以及第一季度的整體表現。

And just one point of clarification. So for 4Q, do you think that with those two big moving parts, that's sort of the number that we have is the right jump-off number as we think about that normal sequential progression of OR?

只澄清一點。那麼對於 4Q，您認為有了這兩個大的移動部件，當我們考慮 OR 的正常順序進展時，我們擁有的數字就是正確的起始數字嗎？

Well, the normal change in OR from the fourth to the first quarter is about a 100 basis point increase, maybe 110 basis points. And those two particular items that we called out in the press release, we'd expect some normalization, if you will.

嗯，從第四季到第一季度，OR 的正常變化大約是增加 100 個基點，也許是 110 個基點。我們在新聞稿中提到的這兩個特定項目，如果您願意的話，我們希望能夠實現一些正常化。

To start with, the insurance and claims, that was 1.9% of revenue in the fourth quarter. That number had averaged 1.2%, 1.3% each quarter in the first three quarters of the year. And so we'd expect that to somewhat normalize and our expense to be more consistent in the first, second and third quarters of 2024. Now it may be a little bit higher -- we've had 4 or 5 straight years of double-digit premium increases and continue to contend with higher cost in that line item, but I still expect that, that would be maybe 1.3%, 1.4% of revenue in the first quarter. So get maybe 50 basis points of benefit, if you will, as we transition into the first quarter on that line item.

首先是保險和理賠，佔第四季收入的 1.9%。這一數字在今年前三季平均為 1.2%，每季為 1.3%。因此，我們預計這種情況會在一定程度上正常化，我們的支出在2024 年第一、第二和第三季度會更加一致。現在可能會高一點——我們已經連續4 或5 年實現雙倍增長。數字溢價增加，並繼續應對該行項目更高的成本，但我仍然預計，這可能會佔第一季收入的 1.3%、1.4%。因此，如果您願意的話，當我們過渡到該訂單項目的第一季時，您可能會獲得 50 個基點的收益。

And then the miscellaneous expenses, we wouldn't expect for those gains to be that significant. That was pretty unusual. Typically, that miscellaneous -- the expense line item is 40 or 50 basis points. And so we'd expect that to somewhat go back to normal as well. So that could be kind of 100, 110 basis point headwind. So I think just net-net, thinking about the $71.8 million that we did in the fourth quarter, as we transition into the first, maybe 170 to 220 basis points deterioration, 170 would be kind of normalizing for those items that I just mentioned.

然後是雜項開支，我們預計這些收益不會那麼大。這很不尋常。通常，雜項費用項目為 40 或 50 個基點。因此，我們預期這種情況也會恢復正常。因此，這可能會帶來 100、110 個基點的逆風。因此，我認為，考慮到我們在第四季度所做的7,180 萬美元，當我們過渡到第一個可能惡化170 到220 個基點時，對於我剛才提到的那些項目來說，170 個基點將是一種正常化。

And then just maybe being on the high side of that was just the uncertainty of where we really get the economic recovery and volume performance through the quarter, that acceleration that we normally would. If we get that acceleration, we're certainly managing all of our costs, and it could be on the low end of the scale or better. But as of right now, probably better to just [stay] and cap it on the higher side of that normalized average.

然後，可能處於較高水平的只是我們在整個季度真正實現經濟復甦和銷售表現的不確定性，即我們通常會加速的情況。如果我們獲得這種加速，我們肯定會管理所有成本，並且可能處於規模的低端或更好。但截至目前，最好還是[保持]並將其限制在標準化平均值的較高側。

The next question is from Ken Hoexter with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ken Hoexter。

Great. And just to clarify that insurance and claims that was that was an annual adjustment, right? So when you talk about normalizing, I just want to understand that actuarial change. But my question would be on -- you didn't bid for the -- or I guess, maybe win the centers, maybe your thoughts on in the industry, if you think the stocking horse bid. So what does that mean for the environment? Do you think those peers need to get a return quickly on that investment, and you see increased pricing competition. I just want to understand your thoughts or view on what the impact of overpaying from your peers' competitive perspective means?

偉大的。只是為了澄清保險和索賠是年度調整，對吧？因此，當您談論正常化時，我只想了解精算變化。但我的問題是——你沒有競標——或者我猜，也許會贏得中心，也許你對這個行業的想法，如果你認為放養馬競標的話。那麼這對環境意味著什麼呢？您是否認為這些同行需要快速獲得投資回報，並且您將看到定價競爭加劇。我只是想了解您的想法或看法，從您同行的競爭角度來看，支付過高的費用意味著什麼？

Well, I won't say anybody overpaid. We looked at the whole thing, obviously, with that initial bid and felt like if we could get everything and get it at somewhat of a discounted pricing than we were willing to take that risk, and obviously, it would have come with increased cost if we had absorbed all that property. But I think each carrier is different, they look at those opportunities. And I guess that fit in with their with their long-term strategic plan. I think if anything, it's increased in the cost basis.

好吧，我不會說有人多付了錢。顯然，我們透過最初的出價審視了整個事情，感覺如果我們能夠得到所有東西，並以比我們願意承擔的風險稍低的折扣價格獲得它，顯然，如果我們已經吸收了所有這些財產。但我認為每個運營商都是不同的，他們會關注這些機會。我想這符合他們的長期策略計畫。我認為如果有的話，那就是成本基礎上的增加。

And like we've said for many years, as we've invested in real estate, you've got to build that into your overall cost structure and appropriately catch that with rates. And that's been our strategy over time. and it's certainly played to our advantage. So if our competitors' cost structures are increasing, I wouldn't expect that they would change their approach to pricing. But I think if anything, they've got to build it in there and try to capture for it. But fortunately, that's something that we're not having to contend with.

就像我們多年來所說的那樣，當我們投資房地產時，你必須將其納入你的整體成本結構中，並透過利率適當地捕捉它。這一直是我們長期以來的策略。這無疑對我們有利。因此，如果我們的競爭對手的成本結構不斷增加，我預計他們不會改變定價方式。但我認為，如果有的話，他們必須在那裡建造它並嘗試捕捉它。但幸運的是，這是我們不必面對的事情。

Like I mentioned earlier, we're good with our strategy, and we feel like it's worked for us over time, and we believe that same formula and strategy can continue to work for us in the future. So that's what we're going to keep executing under.

就像我之前提到的，我們的策略很好，我們覺得隨著時間的推移，它對我們有效，我們相信同樣的公式和策略在未來可以繼續為我們發揮作用。這就是我們將繼續執行的。

And I'm sorry, great answer, but do you mind clarifying on the insurance?

很抱歉，這個答案很好，但是您介意澄清一下保險嗎？

Sure. Yes. So the -- you're right. It was -- we do an annual actuarial assessment in the fourth quarter each year of our reserves. And so we, unfortunately, had an unfavorable adjustment this year. And those go either way. The last few years, they've been favorable adjustments. And we've got an expense rate that we use through the first three quarters of the year, and that's why you see that number that's more consistent, if you will, but -- and then we just had that third-party review done, make adjustments and then just kind of move on.

當然。是的。所以——你是對的。我們每年第四季都會對我們的準備金進行年度精算評估。因此，不幸的是，我們今年進行了不利的調整。這些都是雙向的。過去幾年，它們進行了有利的調整。我們有一個在今年前三個季度使用的費用率，這就是為什麼你會看到這個數字更加一致，如果你願意的話，但是 - 然後我們剛剛完成了第三方審查，進行調整，然後繼續前進。

But just looking at that activity, that's why I think that our expense rate will be a little bit higher in 2024 through the first three quarters versus where we were last year, but maybe only 10, 20 basis points or so, and then we'll conduct another actuarial assessment in the fourth quarter of '24, make whatever adjustments are necessary then and then just move on. But I think it's been -- since 2019 was last year, we had an unfavorable one. So best case scenarios when we get to the end of the year, they conduct the study, and we don't have an adjustment either way. But unfortunately, this year, it was an unfavorable one.

但只要看看這項活動，這就是為什麼我認為 2024 年前三個季度我們的費用率將比去年高一些，但可能只有 10、20 個基點左右，然後我們'我們將在24 年第四季度進行另一次精算評估，然後進行必要的調整，然後繼續前進。但我認為自 2019 年以來，我們一直處於不利的境地。因此，最好的情況是，當我們到年底時，他們會進行研究，我們不會進行任何調整。但不幸的是，今年的情況並不樂觀。

The next question is from Amit Mehrotra with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Amit Mehrotra。

Adam, I think in your prepared remarks, you mentioned that maybe there's a need to add head count in anticipation of volume growth. Can you just put a little bit more color around that? How far ahead of this inflection of volume, when could we expect the head count to go and how quickly? And then, the industry is always -- another follow-up to that. The industry has obviously been disrupted over the last 6 months and the dust is settling, curious to get your view on like how you think the competitive dynamic has evolved from both a service quality perspective and a pricing perspective. Have you seen service disruptions?

亞當，我認為在您準備好的發言中，您提到可能需要增加人員數量以應對銷售增長。你能在周圍多加一點顏色嗎？我們預期人數會在什麼時候以及多快達到這個數量的拐點？然後，這個行業總是──另一個後續行動。在過去的 6 個月裡，該行業顯然已經被擾亂了，塵埃落定，我很想知道您的看法，例如您認為從服務品質角度和定價角度來看，競爭動態是如何演變的。您有看過服務中斷嗎？

I know there's maybe early signs of that in the third quarter, but have those fixed itself or you continue to see services structure to create market share opportunities for you? And what are you seeing on the competitive pricing side that makes you feel better or worse or neutral about kind of where the discipline is in the industry?

我知道第三季可能會出現這種情況的早期跡象，但這些問題是否已經解決，或者您繼續看到服務結構為您創造市場份額機會？您在競爭性定價方面看到了什麼，讓您對行業中的紀律感覺更好、更差或中立？

Yes. That's a lot in one question. I'll see if I can keep it all straight. But we have heard about some service issues and we obviously stay very engaged with our customer base, our large national accounts and 3PL customer accounts as well and meet with them often. And so we have heard about some service issues and believe that, that's something that may continue. And it's very typical in an up-cycle, especially.

是的。一個問題就包含了很多內容。我會看看我能否保持一切正常。但我們聽說了一些服務問題，顯然我們與我們的客戶群、我們的大型國民帳戶和 3PL 客戶帳戶保持著密切的聯繫，並經常與他們會面。因此，我們聽說了一些服務問題，並相信這種情況可能會持續下去。尤其是在上升週期中，這是非常典型的。

And so I think some of the carriers that maybe took on some of that extra Yellow business may cause some issues for them throughout the system or their system. And so that's usually a source of market share for us especially when the economy starts to pick up. But from a pricing standpoint, it's continued to be a very favorable pricing environment, I would say. We've seen -- obviously, we've continued on with our consistent and cost-based increases, and that will be our strategy going forward as well. But just looking at some of the GRIs and some of the feedback that we've had from (inaudible) as well, it seems like the other carriers have continued to push for increases.

因此，我認為一些可能承擔一些額外黃色業務的運營商可能會為他們的整個系統或他們的系統帶來一些問題。因此，這通常是我們市場份額的一個來源，尤其是當經濟開始復甦時。但從定價的角度來看，我想說，這仍然是一個非常有利的定價環境。顯然，我們已經看到，我們繼續堅持基於成本的持續成長，這也將是我們未來的策略。但只要看看一些 GRI 以及我們從（聽不清楚）收到的一些回饋，其他業者似乎仍在繼續推動漲價。

So that's generally a good thing for us as well. If the competitors are increasing their rates. And again, increasing demand environments. Generally, we see competitors that are increasing rates faster than us. And if we're at a price premium to the market and that gap closes, that too, creates market share opportunity for us. So that's why we feel good about where we're positioned and the opportunities that we have going forward. It's been a long, slow cycle that we've been in. ISM has been below 50 for 14 months now. And you compare that to '08, '09, I think, was below 50 for 12 months. (technical difficulty) But we're ready to get back to growing again.

所以這對我們來說通常也是一件好事。如果競爭對手提高價格。再次，需求環境不斷增加。一般來說，我們看到競爭對手的成長率比我們快。如果我們的價格高於市場，且差距縮小，那麼也會為我們創造市場佔有率機會。這就是為什麼我們對自己的定位和未來的機會感到滿意。我們一直處於一個漫長而緩慢的周期。ISM 已連續 14 個月低於 50。與 08 年相比，我認為 09 年有 12 個月低於 50。 （技術難度）但我們已經準備好再次恢復成長。

Going through these slow cycles requires patience. And I think we've managed well, managed cost efficiencies, managed our discretionary spending to go through a year where tonnage was down 9%. Our operating ratio was (inaudible) to me was pretty remarkable. And so I'm really proud of what our team accomplished this year and what we've done to position ourselves for opportunities that are ahead.

經歷這些緩慢的周期需要耐心。我認為我們管理得很好，管理了成本效率，管理了我們的可自由支配支出，度過了噸位下降 9% 的一年。對我來說，我們的營運率（聽不清楚）非常了不起。因此，我對我們團隊今年所取得的成就以及我們為抓住未來機會所做的努力感到非常自豪。

The next question is from Jon Chappell with Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Jon Chappell。

Adam, thanks for the commentary around the 4Q to 1Q move in the OR, given some of the noise in the fourth quarter. As we think about the rest of the year, and I know it's difficult to predict the volume landscape, so let me frame it, if you will.

Adam，感謝您對 OR 中第四季到第一季變動的評論，考慮到第四季的一些噪音。當我們考慮今年剩下的時間時，我知道很難預測成交量的情況，所以如果你願意的話，讓我來框架一下。

It sounds like you're in a good position, 30% capacity. Maybe you can see the whites of the eyes on adding headcount, maybe both PT lever if necessary, if things kind of accelerate quicker than expected. But should we expect a return to kind of normal seasonal trends in the OR this year? Or can we see even better in the first maybe 9 months, if you get some of the volume back on a stickier basis, more of an industrial recovery and then maybe lag a little bit some of the resources that you need to handle that just given your spare capacity today.

聽起來你的位置不錯，容量為 30%。也許你可以看到增加人數時的眼白，如果有必要的話，如果事情加速得比預期更快，也許兩個 PT 槓桿都可以。但我們是否應該預期今年手術室會恢復正常的季節性趨勢？或者我們能否在前 9 個月看到更好的結果，如果你在更粘性的基礎上恢復一些交易量，更多的是工業復甦，然後可能會滯後一些你需要處理的資源今天你的閒置能力。

Yes. I mean, obviously, a lot of it is going to be volume dependent, and we'll really get some type of economic recovery and when does that begin? It'd be great to see it start early. But I'm not sure that the general economic forecasters are predicting that things are going to start so early in the year. But we're ready.

是的。我的意思是，很明顯，其中很大一部分將取決於數量，我們真的會實現某種類型的經濟復甦，那麼什麼時候開始？很高興看到它早點開始。但我不確定一般經濟預測者是否預測事情會在今年這麼早就開始。但我們已經準備好了。

We actually hired and increased our head count during the fourth quarter, much of which was on the platform where we were hiring folks to backfill some of the jobs where our combo employees with the freight volumes that were higher in the second half of the year, we pulled people off the dock and put them right back into a truck, and we're driving again. So we backfilled some of those positions in particular. But we're cautiously optimistic about things, and we're not going to get ahead of it by any means.

我們實際上在第四季度招聘並增加了我們的員工人數，其中大部分是在我們招聘人員的平台上填補的一些職位，而我們的組合員工在下半年的貨運量較高，我們把人從碼頭上拉下來，然後把他們放回卡車上，然後我們又開始開車了。因此，我們特別填補了其中一些職位。但我們對事情持謹慎樂觀的態度，我們不會以任何方式超越它。

So once we start seeing line of sight into some volume recovery, and increased demand, and we'll make sure that we're adding to the workforce as appropriate to keep up with it to make sure that we're efficiently handling any growth that comes without any sacrifice to the quality of our service. So -- but I would say that from a big picture standpoint, when you look back in time and just thinking about the fiscal year overall, generally, when we've gone through a slow period, even going back to 2009, 2016, 2019, we've gone through periods that have been really slow. If we've lost anything from an operating ratio standpoint when the volumes and revenue come back into the system, we've been able to more than recover that OR loss.

因此，一旦我們開始看到銷售的恢復和需求的增加，我們將確保我們適當地增加勞動力以跟上它的步伐，以確保我們能夠有效地應對任何增長不會犧牲我們的服務品質。所以，但我想說，從大局的角度來看，當你回顧過去並考慮整個財年時，一般來說，我們經歷了一段緩慢的時期，甚至可以追溯到 2009 年、2016 年、2019 年，我們經歷了非常緩慢的時期。如果從營運比率的角度來看，當銷售和收入回到系統時我們損失了任何東西，那麼我們不僅能夠彌補 OR 損失。

And back to our cost structure and really pleased with the performance, as I said, but we generated improvement in our direct operating cost for the year this year, even despite the lack of density that we had with the volume weakness. And really, the OR loss was just limited to our overhead expenses increasing, and most of that was depreciation as we continue to expand the network as we brought in new equipment into our fleet to replace some of the older stuff that we've been hanging on to the last couple of years with OEM challenges.

回到我們的成本結構，正如我所說，我們對業績非常滿意，但今年我們的直接營運成本有所改善，儘管我們因銷量疲軟而缺乏密度。實際上，OR 損失僅限於我們的管理費用增加，其中大部分是折舊，因為我們不斷擴展網絡，因為我們將新設備引入我們的車隊以替換我們一直掛著的一些舊設備回顧過去幾年OEM 面臨的挑戰。

So as we incurred a lot of the expense on our own selectively, we're positioning ourselves to capitalize on future growth opportunities. So that will be the power of leverage in the model, is once we get that top line growth going again, we'll continue to be able to improve further those direct operating costs as a percent of revenue, but we regained lost ground on the overhead side, get right back to the operating ratio improvement and have that same formula work and where we're growing the top line, improving the operating ratio and having the income growing faster than the revenues. And that's producing profitable growth has been our long-term story, and it's led to a big increase in shareholder value over time as well.

因此，當我們有選擇地自行承擔大量費用時，我們正在定位自己以利用未來的成長機會。因此，這將是模型中槓桿的力量，一旦我們再次實現營收成長，我們將繼續能夠進一步提高直接營運成本佔收入的百分比，但我們收復了失去管理費用方面，回到營運比率的改善上來，並使用相同的公式，我們會增加收入，提高營運比率，並使收入成長快於收入。這帶來了獲利成長，這是我們的長期故事，隨著時間的推移，它也導致了股東價值的大幅成長。

The next question comes from Tom Wadewitz with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的湯姆·瓦德維茨。

I wanted to ask you just on pricing and I guess if we look at the January, I think you said the January is up like 6.4% and 4Q was 7.5%, I believe, for revenue per hundredweight ex fuel. Do you think there's kind of further deceleration in the pace of year-over-year pricing that you would expect looking forward? And where do you think things settle out? Is it 4% or 5%?

我想問你關於定價的問題，我想如果我們看看 1 月份，我想你說 1 月份增長了 6.4%，第四季度增長了 7.5%，我相信，每英擔不含燃料的收入。您認為未來的年比定價速度是否會進一步放緩？您認為事情會怎麼解決？是4%還是5%？

And then I guess, just one other kind of related question. How do you think we ought to think about cost inflation this year compared to what it was last year?

然後我想，這只是另一個相關問題。與去年相比，您認為我們應該如何考慮今年的成本通膨？

Sure. Yes, from a -- just a revenue per hundredweight, excluding fuel surcharge, if you apply normal seasonality quarter-by-quarter, then the yields would compress to around 6.5% growth, kind of in the first and second quarters, and then that would start to moderate to be closer to 5.5% by the fourth quarter, which -- as you know, if you look long term, our revenue per shipment has been more in the 5%, 5.5% range over time.

當然。是的，僅從每英擔收入來看，不包括燃油附加費，如果按季度應用正常季節性，那麼收益率將壓縮至 6.5% 左右的增長，大約是在第一季度和第二季度，然後到第四季度將開始放緩至接近5.5%，正如您所知，如果從長遠來看，隨著時間的推移，我們每次發貨的收入一直在5%、5.5% 的範圍內。

So we'd expect, absent any mix changes for that -- for us to be able to get consistent increases as we go through the year, as bids are coming new and that's why you just see that absolute number increase quarter-by-quarter. But that rate of growth may start to compress. Now granted, I had anticipated that it would compress a little bit last year and we had the decrease in weight per shipment. And so that supported some of that reported yield metric.

因此，我們預計，如果沒有任何組合變化，我們將能夠在這一年中獲得持續的增長，因為出價不斷增加，這就是為什麼你會看到絕對數量逐季度增加。但成長率可能會開始放緩。現在我承認，我去年預計它會壓縮一點，並且我們每批貨物的重量有所減少。因此，這支持了一些報告的收益率指標。

Now the reverse could happen this year, especially as we get into the back half of the year. If the economy is improving, we'd expect weight per shipment to be higher, and that generally results in a lower revenue per hundredweight. So -- but higher revenue per shipment. So it all kind of balanced out. We believe this year. That will be the more important factor, though, we feel like is will we start seeing some real growth in that revenue -- or I mean, weight per shipment metric rather, that would mean that orders for our customers' products are starting to increase. There's more widgets for every shipment. And that's what we hope that we'll start seeing sometime soon here early this year.

現在，今年可能會發生相反的情況，特別是當我們進入今年下半年時。如果經濟好轉，我們預期每批貨物的重量會更高，這通常會導致每英擔收入下降。所以——但每次出貨的收入更高。所以這一切都平衡了。我們相信今年。不過，這將是更重要的因素，我們覺得我們是否會開始看到收入的一些真正增長——或者我的意思是，每批貨物的重量指標，這意味著我們客戶產品的訂單開始增加。每次發貨都有更多小部件。這就是我們希望今年年初很快就能看到的情況。

From a cost per shipment standpoint, we saw a moderation in our cost per shipment throughout this year, and that's what we'd anticipated. We originally had expected core inflation this year of 5% to 5.5%, and that's pretty much where we finished. It was higher than that in the first half of the year, better than the average in the second.

從每次出貨成本的角度來看，今年我們的每次出貨成本有所下降，這正是我們的預期。我們最初預計今年的核心通膨率為 5% 至 5.5%，而這幾乎就是我們的最終目標。高於上半年，優於下半年平均。

So I feel like our cost per shipment will likely get back into more of our -- more consistent with our longer-term average, probably be somewhere around the 4% mark or so. And that 4% plus or minus where we land, obviously, you can do a little bit better than that if you get volume growth and you're getting density and so forth, that drives a lot of operating efficiencies. We've dealt with the opposite over the last year, 1.5 years.

因此，我覺得我們的每次發貨成本可能會回到我們的水平，與我們的長期平均水平更加一致，可能在 4% 左右。顯然，如果我們的銷量增加或密度增加等等，那麼您可以做得更好一點，這會提高營運效率。在過去的 1.5 年裡，我們處理了相反的情況。

But that number, when you think about it, a lot of our loan items, I mentioned the insurance premiums, but we've dealt with significant cost inflation in many of the income statement line items that we have over time. And fortunately, we've been able to improve operating efficiencies and do other things to mitigate that such that our longer-term inflation on a cost per shipment basis has been in that 3.5% to 4% range.

但是，當你考慮這個數字時，我們的許多貸款項目，我提到了保險費，但隨著時間的推移，我們已經應對了損益表中許多項目的顯著成本通膨。幸運的是，我們已經能夠提高營運效率並採取其他措施來緩解這種情況，從而使我們以每次發貨成本為基礎的長期通膨率一直在 3.5% 至 4% 的範圍內。

The next question is from Bascome Majors with Susquehanna.

下一個問題來自薩斯奎哈納巴斯科姆梅傑斯。

Just to follow up on that last question. Based on the recent contract conversations, you said, certainly, your peers continue to raise price. Do you feel fairly confident you can maintain your historic 1 to 1.5 point spread above that cost inflation this year?

只是為了跟進最後一個問題。根據最近的合約談判，您說，當然，您的同行會繼續提高價格。您是否有信心今年能夠將歷史性的價差維持在高於通膨成本的 1 至 1.5 個點？

Yes. That's always the focus for us. And again, that's why, especially when we get into stronger demand environments. We've historically seen competitors raising rates faster than us. And a lot of that in the past, I think, has been driven by competitors that generally run their networks closer to full utilization. And so if they've not been able to grow volumes in those large upswings, they take advantage of the strength in the market and get more by way of rate.

是的。這始終是我們關注的焦點。這就是原因，尤其是當我們進入更強勁的需求環境時。從歷史上看，我們看到競爭對手的升息速度比我們快。我認為，過去的大部分都是由競爭對手推動的，這些競爭對手通常將其網路運行得接近充分利用。因此，如果他們無法在大幅上漲中增加銷量，他們就會利用市場的優勢，透過利率獲得更多收益。

And we like to do both and go back to reference 2018 and 2021, we outgrew the market in those years, 1,000 to 1,200 basis points, meaning on an LTL tons per day basis and for time to be able to sit across the table from a customer and we're able to get good consistent yield increases in those years as well. But to us, we feel like it's better. It's worked over time to be able to sit across the table from a customer and talk about our cost inflation and say we need cost plus. The plus comes into supporting the long-term consistent investments that we've made in our service center network.

我們喜歡兩者兼而有之，然後回到2018 年和2021 年，我們在那些年的成長超過了市場，1,000 到1,200 個基點，這意味著每天的LTL 噸為基礎，並且有時間能夠坐在桌子對面客戶，我們在這些年也能夠獲得良好的持續產量成長。但對我們來說，我們覺得這樣更好。隨著時間的推移，我們能夠坐在客戶桌對面談論我們的成本膨脹並說我們需要成本加成。優勢在於支持我們在服務中心網路中進行的長期持續投資。

We've invested $2 billion in our network over the past 10 years to consistently grow it. And we've increased our door count by about 50% over that last 10-year basis. And right now, there's still some dust to settle, but the 10 years that ended 2022, the industry's number of service centers are down about 10%, at least for the public carrier. So that's something that's created an advantage for us in the marketplace. It's something that we always want to invest in, in capacity, invest in technology that's designed to improve our customer service, to connect to our customers or to be able to drive operating efficiencies for us to keep our cost inflation low.

過去 10 年來，我們在網路上投資了 20 億美元，以持續發展網路。與過去 10 年相比，我們的門數增加了約 50%。目前，仍有一些塵埃落定，但截至 2022 年的 10 年裡，該行業的服務中心數量減少了約 10%，至少對於公共航空公司而言是如此。這為我們在市場上創造了優勢。這是我們一直希望投資的能力、技術，旨在改善我們的客戶服務、連結我們的客戶或能夠提高我們的營運效率，以維持較低的成本通膨。

So we're always investing in capacity and technology on behalf of our customers generally and that's why we got to build those costs into our price model. And -- but to us, it's a lot easier to sit and say, we want a consistent approach, if you will, versus just something that's more market-driven, trying to get big increases in when the market is in our favor and not as much as the markets in the shipper's favor. It's a formula that's worked over time and it's what we continue to focus on as we go forward.

因此，我們總是代表我們的客戶對產能和技術進行投資，這就是為什麼我們必須將這些成本納入我們的價格模型中。而且- 但對我們來說，坐下來說要容易得多，如果你願意的話，我們想要一種一致的方法，而不是只是更加以市場為導向的方法，試圖在市場對我們有利而不是對我們有利的時候大幅成長。市場對托運人有利。這是一個長期有效的公式，也是我們在前進過程中繼續關注的重點。

The next question is from Jason Seidl with TD Cowen.

下一個問題是 Jason Seidl 和 TD Cowen 提出的。

How should we think about sort of normal seasonal patterns as we move throughout the year and your year-over-year comparisons with tonnage in terms of when you first started seeing the freight come over from Yellow?

當我們全年移動時，我們應該如何考慮正常的季節性模式，以及當您第一次開始看到來自黃色的貨運時，您與噸位的同比比較？

Yes. Obviously, it was midyear in the third quarter when they closed and we got that bump. We were at 47,000 shipments per day for the longest time.

是的。顯然，他們關閉時是第三季年中，我們遇到了這樣的衝擊。我們的最長日出貨量為 47,000 件。

Right. But you didn't see it earlier as they started to bleed a little bit in June?

正確的。但你沒早發現嗎，六月就開始有點流血了？

Not really. We -- I mean our monthly average was 47,000 from December of '22 through July of '23. So it's flat there, and then we got an initial bump of about 3,000 shipments per day. And we stayed pretty consistent there from around 50,000 or a little bit north of that from August through November and then just had the seasonal drop through December.

並不真地。我的意思是，從 22 年 12 月到 23 年 7 月，我們的月平均人數為 47,000。因此，那裡的出貨量持平，然後我們的出貨量最初增加了每天約 3,000 件。從 8 月到 11 月，我們的人數保持在 50,000 左右，或稍高一些，然後到 12 月才出現季節性下降。

So as we're starting out, right now, we're a little below January of last year, which as just mentioned, is at 47,000 -- if we get the bump, that the normal seasonal bump, if you will, that would sort of put us flattish with February and March. And then the question will be, are we getting some type of normal seasonality. If so, that would put the second quarter above the second quarter of last year, and then we can kind of go from there, if you will.

因此，當我們開始時，現在，我們的人數略低於去年1 月的水平，正如剛才提到的，是47,000 人——如果我們得到增長，那就是正常的季節性增長，如果你願意的話，那就是有點讓我們對二月和三月持平。接下來的問題是，我們是否遇到了某種正常的季節性。如果是這樣，那麼第二季度的業績將高於去年第二季度，如果您願意的話，我們可以從那裡開始。

Okay. Makes sense. I want to clarify also something that you guys said. You mentioned you expect an exit of capacity once the dust settles when you were talking about the terminals. Are you talking an exit of capacity from where we are now? Or are you talking a total exit of capacity from when Yellow is an operator?

好的。說得通。我還想澄清一下你們所說的話。您在談到航站樓時提到，一旦塵埃落定，您預計產能將會退出。您是在談論我們現在的產能退出嗎？或者你是說當 Yellow 是營運商時，容量就完全退出了？

Yes. When Yellow was in operations. I mean, obviously, they had, what, 45,000, 50,000 shipments per day, and they had how many other service centers that they did. And net-net, there's going to be a reduction in those number of service centers that were in operation. There's still quite a few that have not settled in any way. And that's what we had believed. We thought that they would be an exit of some percent of their capacity, if you will. But that same level of freight has got to be moved. And I continue to believe that some of it is currently in the truckload world.

是的。當黃色在行動時。我的意思是，很明顯，他們每天有 45,000、50,000 批貨物，他們還有多少個其他服務中心。而且，正在運作的服務中心數量將會減少。還有相當多的問題還沒有以任何方式解決。這就是我們所相信的。如果你願意的話，我們認為它們將是其部分產能的退出。但同樣水準的貨運量必須轉移。我仍然相信其中一些目前已經在卡車世界中。

And so I think that there'll likely be a second wave of freight that comes into LTL once the overall market is improving, the truckload world is getting back to normal, and if you've got truckload carriers they're looking for any payload and maybe willing to handle a 5,000 to 10,000 pound LTL and try to put multiple large shipments on one trailer together and do multiple stops. That's the type of freight that they will shy away from once the market improves, and will spill right back into the market and become normalized LTL freight again. So I think that that's another unique opportunity probably for 2024 that should provide a little bit of tailwind to everyone.

因此，我認為，一旦整體市場好轉，整車運輸世界恢復正常，如果你有整車運輸公司，他們正在尋找任何有效負載，那麼可能會出現第二波零擔貨運浪潮也許願意處理5,000 到10,000 磅的零擔貨物，並嘗試將多批大件貨物放在一輛拖車上並進行多次停靠。一旦市場好轉，他們就會迴避這種貨運，並會立即回流到市場，再次成為常態化的零擔貨運。因此，我認為這可能是 2024 年的另一個獨特機會，應該為每個人提供一點推動力。

Yes. Well, I'm hoping it comes back in '24 for a normalized market. We all have been waiting for it for quite some time. So fingers crossed.

是的。好吧，我希望它能在 24 年回歸正常化的市場。我們都已經等待了很長一段時間了。所以手指交叉。

The next question is from Jack Atkins with Stephens.

下一個問題是傑克·阿特金斯和史蒂芬斯提出的。

So I guess going back to the weight per shipment and just broader demand comment you were making earlier, Adam, I mean, we saw weight per shipment tick up a bit sequentially in the fourth quarter. I know some of that was probably seasonality. But are you starting to see anything, whether it's conversations with customers that would lead you to be a little bit more optimistic about how underlying demand may be trending as we kind of get into the spring. And I guess kind of within that, are you seeing anything different whether it's consumer versus your industrial customer base. Just would be curious about that.

因此，我想回到您之前所做的每批貨物的重量和更廣泛的需求評論，亞當，我的意思是，我們看到每批貨物的重量在第四季度連續略有上升。我知道其中一些可能是季節性的。但是，您是否開始看到任何事情，無論是與客戶的對話，都會讓您對進入春季時潛在需求的趨勢更加樂觀。我想在這方面，無論是消費者還是工業客戶群，您是否看到了任何不同之處。只是對此感到好奇。

Yes, sure. The weight per shipment in the fourth quarter was a little bit stronger than it was in the third, which is fairly typical. And we've seen so far in January, normally, we'd have a drop in weight per shipment of about 2% to 3%. And our weight per shipment is -- right now, it's about 1,515 pounds in January. And so it's dropped a little bit, but better than what the normal seasonal trend would otherwise be from December.

是的，當然。第四季每批貨物的重量比第三季稍強，這是相當典型的。到目前為止，我們在一月份看到，通常情況下，每批貨物的重量會下降約 2% 至 3%。目前，1 月我們每批貨物的重量約為 1,515 磅。所以它有所下降，但比 12 月的正常季節性趨勢要好。

So I think that's usually an early indicator on the economy is going to start turning. We try to read all the economic tea leaves and look at things like the inventory to sales ratio and have conversations with customers that would indicate that inventories are normalized, lower than maybe where they should be. And so that causes us to be cautiously optimistic about what may end up coming at us this year, but we still want to be careful about not getting ahead of it after missing it in the spring of '23.

所以我認為這通常是經濟即將開始轉變的早期指標。我們嘗試閱讀所有經濟茶葉，查看庫存與銷售比率等內容，並與客戶進行對話，這表明庫存已正常化，低於應有的水平。因此，這使我們對今年可能發生的事情持謹慎樂觀的態度，但我們仍然要小心，不要在錯過了 23 年春天之後就走在了前面。

So I certainly feel like there's some opportunity there to see some real recovery in volumes this year, and we'll be prepared for that if it happens. I mentioned that ISM has been below 50 for 14 months. And my goodness, that's just been such a long slow period, the slow cycle is getting them sold from (inaudible). We're ready for it to recover, but we've seen that impact in our business levels. It's -- our revenue in the fourth quarter on the industrial side was a little bit slower than the company average. So that, too, will be an area of opportunity once we can start seeing some improvement there.

因此，我當然覺得今年有機會看到銷量的真正復甦，如果發生這種情況，我們將為此做好準備。我提到 ISM 已連續 14 個月低於 50。天哪，那是一段漫長的緩慢時期，緩慢的周期讓它們被出售（聽不清楚）。我們已準備好讓它恢復，但我們已經看到了這種對我們業務水平的影響。我們第四季工業方面的收入比公司平均要慢一些。因此，一旦我們開始看到一些改進，這也將是一個機會領域。

The next question is from Eric Morgan with Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的艾瑞克摩根。

I wanted to ask one on service. You've been kind of been up against the ceiling on claims ratio and on-time performance for some time now. So I guess I'm just wondering what else you can do to improve the customer experience and stay differentiated, particularly as you're looking to maintain your pricing strategy and keep taking share. Not sure if there are opportunities with technology or speed in certain lanes or anything else? Just trying to get a sense for where you're focused outside of those typical metrics we track.

我想問一下服務方面的問題。一段時間以來，您在索賠率和準時表現方面一直面臨上限。因此，我想我只是想知道您還可以做些什麼來改善客戶體驗並保持差異化，特別是當您希望維持定價策略並繼續佔據份額時。不確定某些車道或其他方面是否有技術或速度的機會？只是想了解我們追蹤的典型指標之外您關注的重點。

Yes. I mean, obviously, the two metrics that we talk about the most are on-time performance and claims ratio. One, it's -- we got to stay focused to make sure that we keep those where they are and make sure as we hire new people as we start growing and things like that, that we don't see those numbers change in any way. So we're always striving for perfection because every shipment we pick up, it's -- we're helping the world keep promises, right? That's a shipment that is going to our customers' customer, and we want to make sure that it's delivered on time and without damage.

是的。我的意思是，顯然，我們談論最多的兩個指標是準時率和索賠率。第一，我們必須保持專注，以確保我們將這些數字保留在原來的位置，並確保當我們開始成長時僱用新員工以及類似的事情時，我們不會看到這些數字發生任何變化。因此，我們始終追求完美，因為我們收到的每批貨物都是——我們正在幫助世界兌現承諾，對嗎？這批貨物將發送到我們客戶的客戶手中，我們希望確保其按時交付且完好無損。

But when we study the Mastio quality data that we get every year, there's 28 attributes related to service and value that they measure. So obviously, there's much more than just being on time and claims-free. And so we study that data very intently and look at any feedback in areas where we can continue to improve. And we've done that over time, and we're proud that we won 25 of the 28, we were #1 in 25 of the 28 Mastio categories in this most recent year.

但是，當我們研究每年獲得的 Mastio 品質數據時，他們衡量的有 28 個與服務和價值相關的屬性。顯然，不僅僅是準時和無索賠。因此，我們非常認真地研究這些數據，並專注於我們可以繼續改進的領域的任何回饋。隨著時間的推移，我們已經做到了這一點，我們很自豪我們贏得了 28 個類別中的 25 個，最近一年我們在 28 個 Mastio 類別中的 25 個類別中排名第一。

So we're always striving to get better. That's part of our foundation for success is continuous improvement. So we always look for ways and stay engaged with our customers to figure out the things that we can do for them, to drive value, to create win-win scenarios. And so it's just a never ending battle to try to stay ahead of the curve, particularly with respect to technology, so much is changing there, the things that we can do to try to connect more with our customers, drive some automation on the -- in the corporate office and the back end processing and so forth. So a lot of opportunities there to keep improving the customer service experience and also mitigating cost when it comes to our technology investments.

所以我們一直在努力變得更好。持續改進是我們成功的基礎的一部分。因此，我們總是尋找方法並與客戶保持聯繫，找出我們可以為他們做的事情，推動價值，創造雙贏的場景。因此，試圖保持領先地位是一場永無止境的戰鬥，特別是在技術方面，那裡正在發生很多變化，我們可以做的事情是嘗試與客戶建立更多聯繫，推動一些自動化 - - 在公司辦公室和後端處理等。因此，我們有許多機會不斷改善客戶服務體驗，並在技術投資方面降低成本。

The next question comes from Stephanie Moore with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自傑弗里斯的史蒂芬妮摩爾。

I wanted to maybe double-click a little bit on your commentary on the labor and adding to head count this year. I just wanted to maybe compare your view on head count additions for 2024 versus 2023, I think I was under the assumption that in 2023 that you were able to hold on to some labor, kind of protect as many drivers and physicians as possible kind of waiting for the demand to pick up in 2024. So just trying to compare, I think, that commentary from prior quarters to your outlook for this year.

我想雙擊一下您對今年勞動力和增加人數的評論。我只是想比較一下您對 2024 年和 2023 年新增人數的看法，我認為我的假設是，在 2023 年您能夠保留一些勞動力，保護盡可能多的司機和醫生等待2024 年需求回升。因此，我認為，我只是想將前幾季的評論與今年的展望進行比較。

Sure. And we did have some attrition as we work through 2023. So the overall head count has been lower on a quarter-over-quarter basis as we went through the year. And like I mentioned, in the fourth quarter, in particular, the average head count was down 4% compared to the fourth quarter of last year, but it was up compared to the third quarter of this year. And so we're adding some positions. We're just under 23,000 employees was our average for the fourth quarter, and that compares back to -- we were 24,000, 25,000 average full-time employees back in parts of 2022.

當然。在 2023 年工作期間，我們確實出現了一些人員流失。因此，全年總員工人數較上季下降。正如我所提到的，特別是在第四季度，平均人數比去年第四季下降了 4%，但與今年第三季度相比有所上升。所以我們增加了一些職位。第四季的平均員工人數略低於 23,000 名，而 2022 年部分時間我們的平均全職員工人數為 24,000 名、25,000 名。

So it will be shipment driven. Typically, when you look at long-term changes in our shipments per day and long-term changes in our headcount. Those two numbers are very closely aligned. And so you're exactly right. We were trying to hang on to as many people as we could, particularly our drivers that we've invested so much in, as we progress through this last year, 1.5 years of slower economic times, and that gave us an advantage.

因此，它將由出貨量驅動。通常，當您查看我們每天發貨量的長期變化和我們員工人數的長期變化時。這兩個數字非常接近。所以你是完全正確的。我們試圖留住盡可能多的人，特別是我們投入大量資金的司機，去年我們經歷了 1.5 年的經濟放緩時期，這給了我們優勢。

I mentioned this earlier, but we had employees that have their CDLs and they were working primarily on the dock. And when we saw that positive inflection in volumes back in the third quarter, that was something that we were easily able to tap into and put those folks right back into a truck. So that worked to our advantage. We're running our truck driving schools right now to continue to produce more employees that have their CDLs, and will be available to drive as demand continues to improve.

我之前提到過這一點，但我們的員工擁有 CDL，他們主要在碼頭工作。當我們在第三季度看到銷量出現積極變化時，我們很容易就能利用這一點，並將這些人重新帶回卡車上。所以這對我們有利。我們現在正在經營卡車駕駛學校，以繼續培養更多擁有 CDL 的員工，並且隨著需求的不斷改善，他們將可以駕駛。

So that's why we're always trying to keep our focus on the long term and be prepared for when the demand gets strong and we start seeing the levels of shipment growth like we've been able to experience in the past, back in 2021, we grew shipments per day at 19.5% at that year, our competition was up 4%. And we were able to accommodate that 19% shipment growth, and be able to keep our service metrics best-in-class and so forth. And it's that investment and trying to stay ahead of the curve with all the things that we do, with all three elements of capacity that allows us to put on significant levels of growth like that when the demand environment dictates.

因此，這就是為什麼我們總是努力將注意力集中在長期上，並在需求強勁時做好準備，並且我們開始看到像我們過去（2021 年）所經歷的那樣的出貨量增長水平，那一年我們每天的出貨量成長了19.5%，我們的競爭對手成長了4%。我們能夠適應 19% 的出貨量成長，並且能夠維持我們一流的服務指標等等。正是這種投資，並努力在我們所做的所有事情上保持領先地位，以及產能的所有三個要素，使我們能夠在需求環境決定時實現顯著的成長水平。

Got it. And just as a quick follow-up, seeing any difficulties meeting some of those hiring or head count additions thus far this year? Just trying to get a sense of the strength of the labor environment.

知道了。作為一個快速的後續行動，今年到目前為止，在滿足一些招募或人員增加方面是否遇到困難？只是想了解勞動環境的強度。

Not at this point. And again, we're trying to get ahead of it a little bit in the sense of creating some of our own drivers. But I think right now, just the state of the market overall, it's totally different than, compare and contrast 2021, when things were so tight everywhere, and it was more of a challenge to get drivers. That's why we focused so much on keeping everyone that we could through the slow period, but go ahead and starting our schools back up, well ahead of the growth coming at us. We want to make sure that particularly with respect to drivers that we get ahead of it as best we can.

目前還沒有。再說一次，我們正試圖在創建一些我們自己的驅動程式方面領先一點。但我認為，就目前的整體市場狀況而言，與 2021 年相比完全不同，當時各地的情況都非常緊張，而且尋找司機更具挑戰性。這就是為什麼我們如此專注於讓每個人都能度過緩慢的時期，但繼續讓我們的學校重新開學，遠遠領先於我們即將到來的成長。我們希望確保在這一點上，特別是在車手方面，我們能夠盡可能地領先。

The next question comes from Scott Group with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Scott Group 和 Wolfe Research。

So just maybe a bigger picture question. Adam, someone asked about pricing earlier, and you answered, well, based on normal seasonality, here's what yields would look like. And I would have thought maybe with this big Yellow event that maybe would be better than normal seasonality on pricing. And same thing, right, where Yellow has gone and tonnage is still down.

所以也許只是一個更大的問題。亞當，早些時候有人問過定價問題，你回答說，根據正常的季節性，收益率是這樣的。我以為，這次大型黃色活動可能會比正常的季節性定價更好。同樣的事情，對吧，黃色已經消失，噸位仍然下降。

And so I guess, ultimate question is we all treated Yellow as this really, really big event in the industry. Is it not really a big event? Or is it that -- it's a really big deal, but it's all being masked by slow macro and ultimately, whenever the macro gets better, we'll really feel the impact of Yellow and it's all still sort of on the come?

所以我想，最終的問題是我們都將 Yellow 視為業界非常非常大的活動。這真的不是一件大事嗎？或者是——這確實是一件大事，但這一切都被緩慢的宏觀所掩蓋，最終，每當宏觀變得更好時，我們就會真正感受到黃色的影響，而這一切仍然即將到來？

Yes, I certainly think it's -- the macro being in the state that it is, that helped the carriers absorb the freight that they were hauling before and pretty effectively. And -- but like I mentioned, I think some of that freight has gone into some different modes and believe that, that will be short lived until really demand improves overall for transportation in general.

是的，我當然認為，宏觀經濟的現狀幫助承運商相當有效地吸收了他們之前運輸的貨物。而且，就像我提到的，我認為其中一些貨運已經進入了一些不同的模式，並且相信，這將是短暫的，直到整體運輸需求真正改善為止。

But -- now when it comes to pricing and just the yield improvement that we've had, we have incredibly strong yield performance in '21, followed that up with '22. And then our rev per hundredweight ex fuel was up 8.1% this year. So some of that, like I mentioned, has been mix driven, but we've had really strong yield performance really over the last 3 years. And -- but we've said even during that time, that our strategy is what it is. And we think it has worked for us. And when we operate at 72% for the year, I don't know that anyone else will be anywhere close to that.

但是 - 現在，當談到定價和我們所取得的產量改善時，我們在 21 年擁有令人難以置信的強勁產量表現，隨後在 22 年。今年我們的每英擔燃油轉速增加了 8.1%。因此，正如我所提到的，其中一些是由混合驅動的，但在過去三年中，我們的收益率表現確實非常強勁。而且──但我們甚至在那段時間就說過，我們的策略就是這樣。我們認為這對我們有用。當我們今年的營運率為 72% 時，我不知道其他人會接近這個數字。

And so -- but it's just a disciplined focus of keeping our costs as low as we can, and then pricing, understanding our cost on a per customer basis and then having a yield that makes sense to try to constantly improve the profitability on each customer account. But we've never said that, that was the right long-term rate. We just want to be consistent and be fair with our customers in that 100 to 150 basis points positive spread of yield above cost has worked for us.

所以，但這只是一個嚴格的重點，即盡可能降低我們的成本，然後定價，了解每個客戶的成本，然後獲得有意義的收益，以不斷提高每個客戶的盈利能力帳戶。但我們從未說過，那是正確的長期利率。我們只是想與我們的客戶保持一致和公平，因為收益率高於成本 100 到 150 個基點的正利差對我們來說是有效的。

But we were in a much different position than a lot of other carriers, I think, in terms of that long-term consistency that we've had in our pricing, we didn't have the same need to go out and try to take advantage of that market change and really increase rates in any way. We kept the same measured, fair approach. And I think that pays dividends. I think it is a reason why we've had good volume stability as well when we've gone through this last slow period, is that we've got good customer relationships.

但我認為，就我們定價的長期一致性而言，我們與許多其他運營商的處境有很大不同，我們沒有同樣的需要出去嘗試採取行動。利用市場變化並以任何方式真正提高費率。我們保持同樣謹慎、公平的態度。我認為這會帶來好處。我認為，當我們經歷最後的緩慢時期時，我們擁有良好的銷售穩定性的一個原因是我們擁有良好的客戶關係。

Freight at the end of the day is a relationship business, and so we want to continue to strengthen relationships and we've got an understanding with our customer base in terms of what we're trying to achieve. And you work through a slow year, we really didn't have any major customer losses. We didn't lose lanes from customers. We kept most of our large national accounts as we progress through the year, just the volume weakness was a result of -- there were reduced orders for our customers' products.

歸根結底，貨運是一項關係業務，因此我們希望繼續加強關係，並且我們已經與客戶群了解了我們想要實現的目標。而且你的工作經歷了緩慢的一年，我們確實沒有任何重大的客戶損失。我們沒有失去顧客的管道。隨著這一年的進展，我們保留了大部分大型國民帳戶，只是銷售疲軟是由於客戶產品的訂單減少。

So pleased with the customer retention that we had last year and look forward to demand improves for our customers' products, we're in place and we'll be able to bring on that freight into the truck line. And get back to doing what we do best, which is growth.

我們對去年的客戶保留率感到非常滿意，並期待客戶產品的需求有所改善，我們已經就位，我們將能夠將這些貨物帶入卡車生產線。回到做我們最擅長的事情，那就是成長。

That's helpful. I know we're past here. If I can just sneak in one more. I'm just looking at this like, 2022, you guys bought back a lot of stock at the -- at the lows and your pace of buybacks have really slowed the last couple of quarters, sort of with the stock at the high. So you've had a pretty good feel for your stock. How are you thinking about your buyback this year?

這很有幫助。我知道我們已經過去了。如果我能再偷偷溜進去一次就好了。我只是這樣看，2022 年，你們在低點回購了許多股票，而過去幾季你們的回購速度確實放緩了，股票處於高位。所以你對你的股票有很好的感覺。您對今年的回購有何看法？

Well, we'll have the same approach that we always do. We start with looking at what we think our cash from operations will be and then what we're going to spend with capital expenditures. And then we have the fixed dividend component. And the net cash balance, we target trying to return to shareholders through the buyback program. But we generally have a grid-based approach where we're buying more when the stock is lower, and I mean, less when it's higher, but consistently in the market. And I think that's what you've seen. But that $1.3 billion was double what we spent, about $600 million the year prior. And so it was reduced this year in the back half, in particular.

好吧，我們將採用與往常相同的方法。我們首先考慮我們認為我們的營運現金將是多少，然後我們將用於資本支出。然後我們有固定股息部分。對於淨現金餘額，我們的目標是透過回購計畫向股東回報。但我們通常採用基於網格的方法，當股票價格較低時我們會買入更多，我的意思是，當股票較高時我們會減少買入，但始終在市場上。我想這就是你所看到的。但這 13 億美元是我們支出的兩倍，大約是前一年的 6 億美元。因此，今年下半年尤其減少了。

But as we go into 2024, we'll just continue to look at how much free cash we think that we'll have and how much we try to return to shareholders and in what ways as we go through the year such that we don't obviously want too much cash building up on the balance sheet. But it's all about driving returns on invested capital, and we've done a pretty good job over time, with improving that metric.

但當我們進入 2024 年時，我們將繼續關注我們認為我們將擁有多少自由現金、我們試圖向股東回報多少，以及我們在這一年中以什麼方式不這樣做。顯然，我們不希望資產負債表上累積太多現金。但這一切都是為了提高投資資本的回報，隨著時間的推移，我們在改善這項指標方面做得相當好。

Today's last question comes from James Monigan with Wells Fargo.

今天的最後一個問題來自富國銀行的詹姆斯·莫尼根。

Actually, I want to follow up on Scott's question. Like, about sort of the yields versus seasonality and pricing versus seasonality. You've mentioned that the market sort of moved pricing up and your competitors have been aggressive on that. And you have improved or have strong service. And so has that like sort of fair price moved away from where it is now? And is there a bit of a catch-up trade on price across the remainder of the year relative to service, based on where everybody else is in the market?

事實上，我想跟進斯科特的問題。例如，關於收益率與季節性以及定價與季節性的關係。您提到市場價格有所上漲，而您的競爭對手對此非常積極。而且你的服務有所改善或有強大的服務。那麼，這種公平價格是否已經偏離了現在的水準？根據市場上其他公司的情況，今年剩餘時間相對於服務的價格是否會出現一些追趕交易？

I'm not sure that I fully understand your question, but like I mentioned before, that we anticipated that, that metric would eventually compress back to longer-term averages. And for us, it's 100 to 150 basis points positive spread, which by the way, reconciles to the average operating ratio improvement, we've been able to generate over time as well.

我不確定我是否完全理解你的問題，但正如我之前提到的，我們預計該指標最終會壓縮回長期平均值。對我們來說，這是 100 到 150 個基點的正利差，順便說一句，這與我們隨著時間的推移也能夠產生的平均營運比率的改善相一致。

And so we'll continue to do our best to manage our cost and to continue to ask for necessary increases on our customer accounts to offset the cost inflation that we'll have in the business and to support the wage increases that we give to our employees to allow us to retain the employees that we have but continue to attract new employees to our business as well, which we've been able to do over time to support the consistent growth that we've been able to produce.

因此，我們將繼續盡最大努力來管理我們的成本，並繼續要求我們的客戶帳戶進行必要的增加，以抵消我們業務中的成本膨脹，並支持我們向我們的員工提供的工資增長。員工，使我們能夠留住現有員工，同時也持續吸引新員工加入我們的業務，隨著時間的推移，我們能夠做到這一點，以支持我們能夠實現的持續成長。

So it takes a lot to keep growing the company year in and year out. And to be able to keep our cost inflation as we're doing so as well. So try to keep that cost under control and keep asking for that same positive spread over time, that's what our focus is going to be.

因此，要年復一年地維持公司的發展需要付出很大的努力。並且能夠在我們這樣做的同時保持我們的成本膨脹。因此，盡量控製成本，並隨著時間的推移不斷要求同樣的積極利差，這就是我們的重點。

Yes. And just real quick on a percentage basis, how much do you expect to grow doors this coming year or any other measure of capacity?

是的。以百分比為基礎，您預計明年的門扇數量或任何其他容量衡量標準會增加多少？

Well, we've probably got line of sight into adding four or five service centers. As Marty mentioned, we've got several that have been under construction. But a lot of that will really depend on the volume environment as well.

嗯，我們可能已經考慮增加四、五個服務中心。正如馬蒂所提到的，我們有幾個正在建設中。但這很大程度也取決於體積環境。

We've -- in the past, we've finished service centers and may complete the construction, we have to start depreciating them and incurring other overhead-type costs with them, but if the volumes don't dictate the opening, then we might sort of keep them in ready reserve, if you will, and wait until volumes are stronger to start incurring the cost because with growth, that's another incremental cost, every new service center that we opened. You've got incremental linehaul cost and other expenses that we're going to incur as a result of that opening. In addition to just the general depreciation and overhead.

過去，我們已經完成了服務中心並可能完成了建設，我們必須開始對它們進行折舊並產生其他管理費用，但如果數量不決定開放，那麼我們如果你願意的話，可能會將它們保留在現成的儲備中，等到銷售量增加時才開始產生成本，因為隨著成長，我們開設的每個新服務中心都會產生另一個增量成本。由於該開放，我們將承擔增量線路運輸成本和其他費用。除了一般折舊和間接費用之外。

So that will be something that we'll be mindful of as we go through the year. And hopefully, the volume environment will be such that we're ready to open them and turn them on day 1 as soon as we're finished.

因此，這將是我們在這一年中要牢記的事情。希望卷環境能夠讓我們準備好在第一天完成後打開它們並打開它們。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the call back to Marty Freeman for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我想將電話轉回給馬蒂·弗里曼，讓其致閉幕詞。

Thank you all for your participation today. We appreciate your questions, and please feel free to give us a call if you have anything further. Thanks, and have a great day.

感謝大家今天的參與。我們感謝您的提問，如果您有任何疑問，請隨時致電我們。謝謝，祝你有美好的一天。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。現在您可以斷開線路。