西南航空 (LUV) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello, everyone, and welcome to the Southwest Airlines Fourth Quarter 2023 Conference Call. My name is Gary, and I will be moderating today's call. This call is being recorded, and a replay will be available on southwest.com in the Investor Relations section. After today's prepared remarks, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. (Operator Instructions). At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Ms. Julia Landrum, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, ma'am.

大家好，歡迎參加西南航空 2023 年第四季電話會議。我叫加里，我將主持今天的電話會議。本次電話會議正在錄音，重播將在 Southwest.com 的投資者關係部分提供。今天準備好的發言結束後，將有機會提問。 （操作員說明）。現在，我想將電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Julia Landrum 女士。請繼續，女士。

Thank you so much. And welcome, everyone, to Southwest Airlines Fourth Quarter 2023 Conference Call. In just a moment, we will share our prepared remarks. After which, we'll be happy to take your questions. On the call with me today, we have our President and CEO, Bob Jordan; Executive Vice President and CFO, Tammy Romo; Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer; Ryan Green; and Chief Operating Officer, Andrew Watterson.

太感謝了。歡迎大家參加西南航空 2023 年第四季電話會議。稍後我們將分享我們準備好的發言。之後，我們將很樂意回答您的問題。今天與我通話的有我們的總裁兼執行長鮑勃喬丹 (Bob Jordan)；執行副總裁兼財務長 Tammy Romo；執行副總裁兼首席商務官；瑞安·格林；和首席營運長安德魯·沃特森。

A quick reminder that we will make forward-looking statements, which are based on our current expectation of future performance. And our actual results could differ materially from expectations. Also, we will reference our non-GAAP results, which exclude special items that are called out and reconciled to GAAP results in our press release. So please refer to the disclosures in our press release from this morning and visit our Investor Relations website for more information. With that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to you, Bob.

快速提醒我們將做出前瞻性陳述，這些陳述是基於我們目前對未來績效的預期。我們的實際結果可能與預期有重大差異。此外，我們將參考我們的非 GAAP 業績，其中不包括在我們的新聞稿中指出並與 GAAP 業績進行協調的特殊項目。因此，請參閱我們今天上午新聞稿中披露的信息，並訪問我們的投資者關係網站以獲取更多資訊。至此，我很高興將電話轉給你，鮑伯。

Thank you, Julia, and thank you, everyone, for joining the call today. As we close the books on 2023, I want to take a moment to reflect on how far we've come. And more importantly, I want to thank the people at Southwest Airlines for their dedication, their warrior spirit, their heart and, ultimately, for their incredible resilience.

謝謝茱莉亞，也謝謝大家今天加入電話會議。在 2023 年即將結束之際，我想花點時間反思我們已經走了多遠。更重要的是，我要感謝西南航空的員工，感謝他們的奉獻精神、戰士精神、心靈，以及最終令人難以置信的韌性。

At this time last year, we were getting back on our feet from the disruption following Winter Storm Elliot. We quickly mobilized to put immediate mitigation efforts in place while simultaneously building a robust plan to prepare us for future extreme winter weather disruptions. We were also working to restore our network, address our staffing needs and return our aircraft to full utilization. And of course, we were in the middle of negotiations with the majority of our labor unions.

去年的這個時候，我們剛從冬季風暴艾利奧特造成的破壞中恢復過來。我們迅速動員起來，立即採取緩解措施，同時制定強有力的計劃，為未來的極端冬季天氣破壞做好準備。我們也努力恢復我們的網絡，解決我們的人員需求，並使我們的飛機恢復充分利用。當然，我們正在與大多數工會進行談判。

I'm incredibly pleased to be on the other side of 2023 and to be able to share all the progress we made last year. We completed a comprehensive winter weather action plan, which has already been successfully tested in multiple weather -- winter weather events, including the extended nationwide winter storms we experienced this month, but also with other types of disruptions such as hurricanes, severe fog in Chicago and the Maui fires. Through all of those events, our aircraft and crew networks remained stable. We recovered quickly, and we were able to minimize the impact on our customers. We also got fully staffed, restored our network and reached full utilization of our fleet.

我非常高興能夠在 2023 年的另一邊分享我們去年的所有進展。我們完成了一項全面的冬季天氣行動計劃，該計劃已經在多種天氣冬季天氣事件中成功進行了測試，包括本月我們經歷的全國範圍內的冬季風暴，以及其他類型的干擾，例如颶風、芝加哥大霧還有毛伊島大火。透過所有這些事件，我們的飛機和機組人員網路保持穩定。我們很快就恢復了，並且能夠將對客戶的影響降到最低。我們還配備了充足的人員，恢復了我們的網路並充分利用了我們的機隊。

Our network is in a healthy place, and it shows in our operational improvement. In fact, we improved in nearly every operational metric. Our completion factor performance, in particular, was fantastic at 99% for the full year, with fourth quarter being our best quarterly performance in more than a decade at 99.6%. We also made significant progress on our labor agreements, including the ratification earlier this week of an agreement that secures industry-leading pay for our best-in-class pilots. We have now successfully reached ratification on nine contracts in a little over a year, demonstrating our commitment to providing competitive market compensation packages for our people. This is a huge accomplishment, and I would like to thank all those who have tirelessly supported those negotiations.

我們的網路狀況良好，這體現在我們營運的改進上。事實上，我們幾乎在每一個營運指標上都有所改進。特別是，我們全年的完成率表現非常出色，達到 99%，第四季是我們十多年來最好的季度表現，達到 99.6%。我們在勞工協議方面也取得了重大進展，包括本週早些時候批准了一項協議，確保我們一流的飛行員獲得行業領先的薪酬。現在，我們在一年多一點的時間裡成功批准了九份合同，這表明我們致力於為我們的員工提供有競爭力的市場薪酬方案。這是一項巨大的成就，我要感謝所有不懈地支持這些談判的人。

Of course, all this was in addition to a host of other accomplishments, the rollout of a new revenue management system, the launch of multiple customer experience improvements, and the negotiation of a very cost-effective order book with Boeing. The order book allows us to continue the modernization of our fleet and provides the opportunity to flex our growth plans up or down over the long term.

當然，這一切都是在一系列其他成就之外，包括推出新的收入管理系統、啟動多項客戶體驗改進以及與波音公司談判極具成本效益的訂單簿。訂單簿使我們能夠繼續對機隊進行現代化改造，並提供了調整我們長期成長計畫的機會。

We also made rapid adjustments to capacity for both 2023 and 2024 and put in place significant network adjustments in response to changing demand patterns. These changes reduced our planned 2024 year-over-year capacity increase to roughly 6%, all of which is carryover from 2023 network restoration. So there will be no net new additional capacity in 2024 as we work to mature our route network.

我們也對 2023 年和 2024 年的運力進行了快速調整，並根據不斷變化的需求模式進行了重大網路調整。這些變更將我們計劃的 2024 年同比容量增長減少至大約 6%，所有這些都是 2023 年網路恢復的結轉。因此，隨著我們努力完善我們的航線網絡，2024 年將不會新增淨運力。

Moving to our performance. We continue to be very pleased with the core demand for our product. We saw close-in performance strength in November and December for both leisure and corporate travel. This led fourth quarter 2023 to be yet another record at just over $6.8 billion in operating revenue. And we are seeing that strength continue into 2024. This demand strength, combined with about $1.5 billion in incremental year-over-year pretax profit from our network optimization efforts and the contributions from our portfolio of strategic initiatives, is driving us to expect additional revenue records and year-over-year operating margin expansion despite cost pressures from new labor agreements and increased aircraft maintenance expense.

轉向我們的表演。我們仍然對我們產品的核心需求感到非常滿意。我們看到 11 月和 12 月休閒和商務旅行的表現強勁。這使得 2023 年第四季的營業收入再創新高，略高於 68 億美元。我們看到這種強勁勢頭將持續到2024 年。這種需求強勁，加上我們的網路優化工作帶來的約15 億美元的同比增量稅前利潤以及我們的戰略舉措組合的貢獻，正在推動我們期待額外的收入儘管新的勞資協議帶來成本壓力，飛機維護費用增加，但仍實現了創紀錄的增長，營業利潤率同比增長。

Our network changes are materially in place with the March schedule, where we expect to hit a profitability inflection point. While still early in the quarter, our initiatives are delivering towards our revenue target. And we expect to exit the quarter with a strong operating margin for the month of March.

我們的網路變更已按照 3 月的計劃進行，預計將達到獲利拐點。雖然仍處於本季初期，但我們的舉措正在實現我們的收入目標。我們預計本季結束時 3 月的營業利潤率將保持強勁。

While we have significant inflationary pressures from our new labor agreements, we have initiatives underway that will begin to help counter these pressures with efficiency improvements. These include everything from scheduling techniques to digital modernization, and we planned in 2024 with head count flat to down as compared with year-end 2023 as we slow hiring to levels that are at or below our attrition rate. That will drive efficiency gains in 2024 with more to come in 2025.

雖然新的勞工協議給我們帶來了巨大的通膨壓力，但我們正在採取一些舉措，透過提高效率來幫助應對這些壓力。其中包括從調度技術到數位現代化的方方面面，我們計劃在 2024 年，員工數量與 2023 年底相比持平甚至減少，因為我們將招募速度放慢至等於或低於員工流失率的水平。這將在 2024 年推動效率提升，並在 2025 年實現更多效率提升。

All of this supports a solid plan with a line of sight to improve our financial returns and earn our cost of capital in 2024. While this represents notable progress, I want to be clear. Earning adequate and consistent returns, ROIC well in excess of WACC is our financial North Star, and it's not negotiable. We will be relentless in executing against our plans, and we will continue to make adjustments, including capacity adjustments, if needed, until we deliver those results. Adequate and consistent returns is how we have created decades of shareholder value, and it continues to be our key focus. Our current set of initiatives is tracking nicely, and we'll provide you a lot more detail later this year at Investor Day. In addition, we're working on a next set of initiatives to support -- in support of sustainable returns over time.

所有這些都支持了一項堅實的計劃，其目標是在 2024 年提高我們的財務回報並賺取我們的資本成本。雖然這代表著顯著的進展，但我想澄清一下。賺取足夠且持續的回報，ROIC 遠遠超過 WACC 是我們的財務北極星，這是沒有商量餘地的。我們將堅持不懈地執行我們的計劃，並且我們將繼續進行調整，包括根據需要調整產能，直到我們取得這些結果。充足且一致的回報是我們數十年來創造股東價值的方式，並且仍然是我們的重點。我們目前的一系列舉措進展順利，我們將在今年稍後的投資者日向您提供更多詳細資訊。此外，我們正在製定下一組支援計劃，以支持隨著時間的推移實現永續回報。

In closing, we made tremendous progress in 2023, and we finished the year a much stronger company. We will finish this year stronger again. We are fully committed to improving the customer experience and delivering on our long-term financial targets, including generating returns for our shareholders. As always, I have confidence in our people and our business model, and I am particularly proud of our people for their dedication and their resilience. They remain our absolute greatest asset, the heart and soul of our company, and the ultimate source of pride for me. And with that, I will turn it over to Tammy.

最後，我們在 2023 年取得了巨大進步，在這一年中我們成為了一家更強大的公司。今年我們將再次變得更強大。我們完全致力於改善客戶體驗並實現我們的長期財務目標，包括為股東創造回報。一如既往，我對我們的員工和我們的商業模式充滿信心，我對員工的奉獻精神和韌性感到特別自豪。他們仍然是我們最寶貴的資產，是我們公司的核心和靈魂，也是我自豪的最終來源。有了這個，我會把它交給塔米。

Thank you, Bob, and hello, everyone. As Bob mentioned, 2023 wasn't without its challenges. But we are stronger and ready to take on another year, and that is all thanks to our incredible employees. We delivered $996 million in profits for the year and our fourth quarter net income of $233 million, both when excluding special items, was on the better side of our expectations. We prioritized the restoration of our network and operational reliability in 2023, which has taken a lot of resources and focus. With our operations now stable and the network fully restored, we can direct much more focus and energy to consistently delivering a strong financial performance, along with delivering operational excellence.

謝謝你，鮑勃，大家好。正如鮑伯所提到的，2023 年並非沒有挑戰。但我們變得更強大，並準備好迎接新的一年，這都要歸功於我們出色的員工。我們全年獲利 9.96 億美元，第四季淨利為 2.33 億美元（皆不計特殊項目），皆優於我們的預期。我們優先考慮在 2023 年恢復網路和營運可靠性，這花費了大量資源和精力。隨著我們的營運現已穩定且網路已完全恢復，我們可以將更多的注意力和精力用於持續提供強勁的財務業績以及卓越的營運。

We have incredible strengths to build upon and the levers we need to optimize and regain our position as an industry leader. We will be steadfast in our efforts to make meaningful progress this year in support of our long-term goal of generating consistent returns well in excess of our cost of capital. Ryan and Andrew will cover the headway we've made with our revenue and operations performance in detail. So I'll start with our cost performance before moving to fleet and balance sheet.

我們擁有令人難以置信的優勢，以及優化和重新奪回行業領導者地位所需的槓桿。今年我們將堅定不移地努力取得有意義的進展，以支持我們產生遠超資本成本的持續回報的長期目標。瑞安和安德魯將詳細介紹我們在收入和營運績效方面取得的進展。因此，我將從我們的成本績效開始，然後再轉向機隊和資產負債表。

Overall, our unit cost, excluding special items, were down 16% year-over-year in the fourth quarter. Our fourth quarter average fuel price of $3 per gallon was right at the low end of guidance, primarily due to jet fuel prices in the L.A. market steadying after significantly spiking in mid-November. Thankfully, market prices dropped as we moved into this year. And our fuel price guidance of $2.70 to $2.80 per gallon for the first quarter and $2.55 to $2.65 per gallon for the full year is a welcome reduction in fuel costs compared with 2023.

整體而言，第四季我們的單位成本（不包括特殊項目）年減了 16%。我們第四季的平均燃油價格為每加侖 3 美元，正好處於指導值的低端，這主要是由於洛杉磯市場的航空燃油價格在 11 月中旬大幅上漲後趨於穩定。值得慶幸的是，隨著今年的到來，市場價格有所下降。我們第一季的燃油價格指引為每加侖 2.70 美元至 2.80 美元，全年每加侖為 2.55 美元至 2.65 美元，與 2023 年相比，燃油成本出現了可喜的下降。

We are currently 60% hedged here in first quarter and 57% hedged for the full year with more meaningful hedge protection kicking in at Brent prices around $90 per barrel. That's a higher strike price than where our 2023 hedges began to provide meaningful protection, which was closer to $70 per barrel. This is reflective of the current market conditions and elevated cost of hedging. We continue to prudently add to our fuel hedge position for 2026, nearing 20% hedged and are currently 46% hedged in 2025, in line with our goal to be roughly 50% hedged in each calendar year. While we are not fully immune to the volatile energy market, I am grateful that our hedging positions provide meaningful protection against catastrophic increases, while also allowing us to participate fully when market prices decline.

目前，我們在第一季進行了 60% 的對沖，全年進行了 57% 的對沖，更有意義的對沖保護在布倫特原油價格約為每桶 90 美元時開始。這比我們的 2023 年對沖開始提供有意義的保護的執行價格更高，該價格接近每桶 70 美元。這反映了當前的市場狀況和對沖成本的上升。我們繼續謹慎地增加 2026 年的燃料對沖頭寸，接近 20% 的對沖，目前 2025 年的對沖率為 46%，這符合我們每個日曆年約 50% 的對沖目標。雖然我們不能完全免受能源市場波動的影響，但我很高興我們的對沖頭寸為防止災難性價格上漲提供了有意義的保護，同時也使我們能夠在市場價格下跌時充分參與。

Moving to nonfuel cost. Our fourth quarter year-over-year CASM-X decrease of 18.1% was on the favorable side of our guidance range, driven primarily by elevated operating expenses and lower capacity levels in fourth quarter 2022 as a result of the operational disruption. This was partially offset by general inflationary cost pressures, including higher labor rates for all employee work groups as well as elevated maintenance expense. Both of which are sticky as we move into 2024.

轉向非燃料成本。我們第四季的 CASM-X 年減 18.1%，處於我們指導範圍的有利一側，這主要是由於營運中斷導致 2022 年第四季營運費用增加和產能水準下降。這部分被整體通膨成本壓力所抵消，包括所有員工工作小組的人工費率上升以及維護費用增加。隨著我們進入 2024 年，這兩個問題都變得棘手。

I also want to congratulate our pilots on their newly ratified contract. Obviously, the market for pilot wages has increased significantly, and it is important that we keep pace to reward our employees appropriately. As a result of the new agreement, we recorded a change in estimate for the pilot ratification bonus, and you can find the details and breakout of the accounting treatment in this morning's press release.

我還要祝賀我們的飛行員新批准的合約。顯然，試辦薪資的市場已經大幅成長，我們必須跟上步伐，給予員工適當的獎勵。由於新協議的簽訂，我們記錄了試點批准獎金估算的變化，您可以在今天上午的新聞稿中找到會計處理的細節和明細。

Looking to first quarter 2024, we currently estimate our CASM-X to increase in the range of 6% to 7% year-over-year. Roughly 3 to 4 points of this estimated increase is driven by higher overall 2024 labor cost and market wage rate accruals. The remainder of the first quarter CASM-X increase is primarily due to year-over-year pressure in maintenance expense driven by rate increases as well as an increase in maintenance activity as our 800s are coming off their honeymoon period.

展望 2024 年第一季度，我們目前預期 CASM-X 將年增 6% 至 7%。這項估計增幅中約有 3 到 4 個百分點是由 2024 年總體勞動成本和市場工資率成長所推動的。第一季 CASM-X 成長的剩餘時間主要是由於費率上漲以及我們的 800 即將結束蜜月期導致維護活動增加導致的維護費用同比壓力。

Speaking to full year cost. Our CASM-X guidance of a 6% to 7% increase year-over-year is also essentially driven by labor and maintenance cost pressures. Roughly 4 to 5 points is attributable to labor and roughly 2 points is from maintenance for the reasons I previously covered. While we accrue for market wage rates, the recently ratified pilot contract contributes the majority of the labor CASM-X increase this year due to a step-up in wage rates, work rule changes and enhanced benefits.

談到全年成本。我們的 CASM-X 指引為年增 6% 至 7%，這主要也是由勞動力和維護成本壓力所推動的。大約 4 到 5 分歸因於人工，大約 2 分來自維護，原因如我之前所述。雖然我們根據市場工資率計算，但由於工資率的提高、工作規則的變化和福利的提高，最近批准的試點合約貢獻了今年 CASM-X 勞動力增長的大部分。

As Bob mentioned, we are steadfastly focused on regaining efficiencies to help counter some of the structural cost pressures as we look to control what's controllable. We are not satisfied with our current financial performance, and we will work relentlessly until we produce the financial strength and returns you should expect from Southwest Airlines. We have a solid 2024 plan, which includes the benefit of roughly $1.5 billion in incremental year-over-year pretax profits from our strategic initiatives. The vast majority of the initiatives delivering value in 2024 are revenue related, contributing well over $1 billion of the $1.5 billion total expected incremental benefit. And our network optimization and market maturation efforts are providing the bulk of that revenue lift.

正如鮑伯所提到的，我們堅定不移地專注於恢復效率，以幫助應對一些結構性成本壓力，同時我們希望控制可控的事情。我們對目前的財務表現並不滿意，我們將不懈努力，直到達到您所期望的西南航空的財務實力和回報。我們制定了可靠的 2024 年計劃，其中包括從我們的策略舉措中獲得約 15 億美元的年增量稅前利潤。到 2024 年創造價值的絕大多數措施都與收入相關，在 15 億美元的預期增量收益總額中貢獻遠超過 10 億美元。我們的網路優化和市場成熟度工作為收入成長提供了大部分。

The balance of the revenue-generating benefits come from incremental managed business initiatives, primarily increased GDS participation. The incremental cost benefit relates primarily to fleet modernization and early yields from other operating efficiency efforts such as digital service modernization and our turn initiative. We will go into a lot more detail on our initiative portfolio at Investor Day later this year. While early, our plan provides significant progress towards our long-term goal to generate ROIC well in excess of our cost of capital. Again, more details to come at our 2024 Investor Day.

創收效益的平衡來自於增量管理業務計劃，主要是增加 GDS 參與度。增量成本效益主要與機隊現代化和其他營運效率工作（例如數位服務現代化和我們的輪班計劃）的早期收益相關。我們將在今年稍後的投資者日上更詳細地介紹我們的計劃投資組合。雖然還處於早期階段，但我們的計劃在實現我們的長期目標方面取得了重大進展，即產生遠超我們資本成本的投資回報率。同樣，更多詳細資訊將於 2024 年投資者日公佈。

Now turning to our fleet. During 2023, we received a total of 86 -8 deliveries, one more than planned, and retired 39 -700s, two less than planned, ending the year with a total of 817 aircraft. We consistently mentioned the flexibility in our fleet modernization efforts being a key competitive advantage. And the minor shifting of deliveries and retirements throughout 2023 validates our ability to thoughtfully plan and execute, given the continued supply chain challenges facing Boeing.

現在轉向我們的艦隊。 2023 年期間，我們共交付了 86 架 -8 飛機，比計劃多出 1 架，退役了 39 架 -700 架，比計劃少了兩架，年底飛機總數達到 817 架。我們一直提到我們機隊現代化工作的彈性是關鍵的競爭優勢。鑑於波音公司持續面臨的供應鏈挑戰，2023 年交付和退役的小幅變化驗證了我們深思熟慮的計劃和執行的能力。

Moving into 2024, there is continued uncertainty around the timing of expected Boeing deliveries and the certification of the MAX 7 aircraft. Our fleet plans remain nimble and currently differs from our contractual order book with Boeing. We are planning for 79 aircraft deliveries this year and expect to retire roughly 45 -700s and 4 -800s, resulting in a net expected increase of 30 aircraft this year.

進入 2024 年，波音的預期交付時間和 MAX 7 飛機的認證仍存在不確定性。我們的機隊計劃仍然靈活，目前與我們與波音的合約訂單有所不同。我們計劃今年交付 79 架飛機，並預計退役約 45 架 -700 和 4 架 -800，因此今年預計淨增加 30 架飛機。

Taking our current plan into consideration, we expect our 2024 CapEx to be in the range of $3.5 billion to $4 billion. After finalizing our 2024 plans and refining capacity levels to better reflect the current environment, we now expect full year 2024 capacity to be up about 6% year-over-year. And our 2024 capacity plans do not currently include any MAX 7 flying. So if certification of that aircraft continues to push out, our 2024 capacity plans will not be impacted. In addition, we are also reducing our total fuel expense with our fleet modernization initiatives as we continue to bring on more fuel-efficient -8 aircraft and retire -700s. We saw a nearly 3% year-over-year improvement in fuel efficiency in 2023 and expect continued improvement this year. In addition to fuel savings, our fleet modernization initiative is a key component in reaching our environmental sustainability goals.

考慮到我們目前的計劃，我們預計 2024 年的資本支出將在 35 億美元至 40 億美元之間。在最終確定 2024 年計畫和精煉產能水準以更好地反映當前環境後，我們現在預計 2024 年全年產能將年增約 6%。我們的 2024 年運力計畫目前不包括任何 MAX 7 飛行。因此，如果該飛機的認證繼續推進，我們 2024 年的產能計畫將不會受到影響。此外，隨著我們繼續引進更省油的 -8 飛機和退役 -700 飛機，我們也透過機隊現代化措施減少了總燃油費用。我們看到 2023 年燃油效率年增了近 3%，並預計今年將繼續改善。除了節省燃料之外，我們的機隊現代化計畫也是實現環境永續發展目標的關鍵組成部分。

Lastly, I am proud to report that our balance sheet strength continues to be a financial backbone as we move into another year. We remain the only U.S. airline with an investment-grade rating by all three rating agencies. We ended the year with $11.5 billion in cash and short-term investments, returned $428 million to our shareholders through dividend payments in 2023, paid $85 million to retire debt and finance lease obligations in 2023, and continue to be in a net cash position. We expect to pay a modest $29 million in debt payments this year and continue to expect interest income to well exceed our expected interest expense of $249 million in 2024.

最後，我很自豪地向大家報告，隨著我們進入新的一年，我們的資產負債表實力仍然是財務支柱。我們仍然是唯一一家同時獲得三大評級機構投資等級評級的美國航空公司。截至年底，我們擁有 115 億美元的現金和短期投資，透過 2023 年股息支付向股東返還 4.28 億美元，在 2023 年支付 8,500 萬美元償還債務和融資租賃義務，並繼續保持淨現金狀況。我們預計今年將支付 2,900 萬美元的適度債務，並繼續預期 2024 年利息收入將遠遠超過我們預期的 2.49 億美元利息支出。

So we are pleased to have a plan for significant financial improvement to be made this year with some major milestones behind us, such as restoring our network, becoming fully staffed, fully utilizing our fleet and so much more. Our sites are set on expanding margins and covering our cost of capital in 2024. And as I close, I'd like to sincerely thank our people for another year of hard work and dedication to the mission and vision of Southwest Airlines. I am so grateful for each and every one of you. You were truly my heroes. And with that, I will turn it over to Ryan.

因此，我們很高興今年制定了一項重大財務改善計劃，並取得了一些重大里程碑，例如恢復我們的網路、人員配備齊全、充分利用我們的機隊等等。我們的目標是在 2024 年擴大利潤並涵蓋我們的資本成本。在結束之際，我要衷心感謝我們的員工在新的一年為西南航空的使命和願景所做的辛勤工作和奉獻。我非常感謝你們每一個人。你們確實是我的英雄。有了這個，我會把它交給瑞安。

Thank you, Tammy, and hello, everyone. Let me start by sharing that I am very pleased with the overall demand for our business, the execution from our amazing people and the engagement of our loyal customers. Fourth quarter unit revenue finished slightly better than expectations at down 8.9% year-over-year. The improvement was driven by a strengthening of close-in revenue performance in November and December for both leisure and corporate business travel as well as the continuation of overall strong holiday performance and market share gains from our managed business initiatives.

謝謝你，塔米，大家好。首先我要說的是，我對我們業務的整體需求、我們出色的員工的執行力以及我們忠實客戶的參與感到非常滿意。第四季單位營收年減 8.9%，略優於預期。這項改善的推動因素是 11 月和 12 月休閒和企業商務旅行的近期收入表現增強，以及整體強勁的假期表現和我們管理的業務計劃帶來的市場份額的持續增長。

I'm pleased to report that we saw no bookings impact from last year's operational disruption during this past holiday season, which speaks to the operational improvements we have made over the last year, as well as the enduring loyalty from our customers. In addition, fourth quarter was another quarter with multiple records set, including record fourth quarter operating revenue and passenger revenue as well as an all-time quarterly record for passengers carried.

我很高興地向大家報告，去年假期期間的營運中斷並未對預訂量產生影響，這說明了我們在過去一年中取得的營運改善以及客戶持久的忠誠度。此外，第四季又創下多項紀錄，包括創紀錄的第四季營業收入和旅客收入，以及創歷史新高的季度載客量。

Fares also performed well in the fourth quarter, with our average passenger fare up about 2.5% year-over-year. And all in all, our fourth quarter operating revenues were up over $1 billion relative to fourth quarter of 2019. And while we still have work to do on our revenue performance, I remain very pleased with our progress.

第四季票價也表現良好，平均乘客票價較去年同期上漲約 2.5%。總而言之，我們第四季的營業收入較 2019 年第四季成長了超過 10 億美元。雖然我們在營收表現方面仍有工作要做，但我對我們的進展仍然非常滿意。

Looking to our full year results. We grew 2023 operating revenues nearly 10% year-over-year to a record $26 billion accompanied by record passengers, record Rapid Rewards revenue and record ancillary revenue. And speaking of records, we set operating revenue records in each quarter of the year and for the full year of 2023. As we move into 2024, we are seeing the momentum continue, and we're seeing early but highly encouraging benefits from our network optimization efforts. And we expect first quarter unit revenue growth of 2.5% to 4.5% when compared to the same period last year. This represents a solid sequential improvement in year-over-year unit revenue performance even when normalized for the 5-point tailwind from the prior year disruption impact.

展望我們的全年業績。 2023 年，我們的營運收入年增近 10%，達到創紀錄的 260 億美元，乘客數、快速獎勵收入和輔助收入也創紀錄。說到記錄，我們在2023 年每個季度和全年都創下了營業收入記錄。隨著我們進入2024 年，我們看到這種勢頭仍在繼續，我們看到我們的網絡帶來了早期但非常令人鼓舞的效益優化工作。我們預計第一季單位營收較去年同期成長 2.5% 至 4.5%。即使將上一年中斷影響的 5 個百分點標準化，這也顯示單位收入表現較去年同期穩定改善。

In fact, our guide would imply first quarter 2024 nominal RASM to be about 5 points higher than our normal seasonal sequential average when compared with nominal fourth quarter 2023 RASM. We currently have about 60% of expected bookings for first quarter already in place, slightly above normal, and we are seeing better-than-normal sequential RASM performance, further demonstrating that our network optimization efforts are working.

事實上，我們的指南意味著，與 2023 年第四季名目 RASM 相比，2024 年第一季名目 RASM 將比正常季節性連續平均值高出約 5 個點。目前，我們第一季的預期預訂量已達到約 60%，略高於正常水平，我們看到連續 RASM 效能優於正常水平，進一步證明我們的網路優化工作正在發揮作用。

As we refined our capacity plans for this year, we've been able to pull in even more flying out of the shoulder periods, which we believe will be a tangible contributor in boosting our performance. While our forecast doesn't assume any material increase in demand for domestic air travel in 2024, we do have a line of sight to double-digit operating revenue growth year-over-year, driven largely by the network and initiative-driven revenue that Tammy detailed.

隨著我們完善今年的產能計劃，我們已經能夠吸引更多的空餘航班，我們相信這將為提高我們的業績做出切實的貢獻。雖然我們的預測並未假設 2024 年國內航空旅行的需求會出現任何實質性增長，但我們確實預計營業收入將實現兩位數同比增長，這主要是由網絡和主動驅動的收入推動的。塔米詳細。

Included in that, of course, is our efforts to drive managed business. We are very pleased with the performance of our managed business initiatives and the success of our Southwest business team. In the past year, we had a solid increase in market share, more than 3 points in the managed business space, and I'm very proud we improved our Business Travel News ranking from fourth place in the industry in 2019 to second place in 2023. We were the only carrier on the survey to receive an increased total score 2 years in a row, while each of our competitors' scores have declined over that same period. It's another example of the progress we're making against the industry in the managed business space.

當然，其中包括我們推動託管業務的努力。我們對託管業務計劃的表現以及西南業務團隊的成功感到非常滿意。在過去的一年裡，我們的市場份額穩步增長，在託管業務領域提升了超過 3 個百分點，我非常自豪我們將商旅新聞排名從 2019 年的行業第四位提升到 2023 年的第二位.我們是調查中唯一一家連續兩年獲得總分上升的航空公司，而同期我們每個競爭對手的分數均有所下降。這是我們在託管業務領域相對行業取得進展的另一個例子。

Of course, we're also continuing our efforts to improve our customer experience and our Rapid Rewards program. We are seeing improved customer satisfaction scores with our WiFi product as we proceed with our infrastructure investments there. And more aircraft are joining the fleet every day with in-seat power and larger bins on board. We've made several enhancements to our award-winning Rapid Rewards program, including making it easier to reach our A-List and A-List Preferred levels. And we will soon be rolling out the ability to book travel with a combination of cash plus Rapid Reward points later this spring.

當然，我們也在繼續努力改善我們的客戶體驗和快速獎勵計劃。隨著我們繼續進行基礎設施投資，我們看到我們的 WiFi 產品的客戶滿意度有所提高。每天都有更多配備座椅電源和更大行李箱的飛機加入機隊。我們對屢獲殊榮的快速獎勵計劃進行了多項改進，包括讓您更容易達到我們的 A-List 和 A-List Preferred 等級。我們很快就會在今年春季晚些時候推出使用現金加快速獎勵積分的組合預訂旅行的功能。

We introduced customer bag tracking to reduce friction in our customers' travel experience, and we look forward to sharing more on our larger digital hospitality modernization plan in the coming months. All of this is designed to make it easier to fly with us and give customers even more reasons to choose Southwest.

我們引入了客戶行李追蹤功能，以減少客戶旅行體驗中的摩擦，我們期待在未來幾個月分享更多有關我們更大的數位飯店現代化計劃的資訊。所有這些都是為了讓您更輕鬆地乘坐我們的航班，並為客戶提供更多選擇西南航空的理由。

As we enter 2024, we have a very solid plan that leverages the unparalleled strength of our people, our product, our loyalty program and our route network. And we look forward to delivering on continued progress towards our long-term financial goals. With that, Andrew, over to you.

進入 2024 年，我們制定了一個非常可靠的計劃，充分利用我們的員工、產品、忠誠度計劃和航線網絡的無與倫比的優勢。我們期待在實現長期財務目標方面不斷取得進展。安德魯，接下來就交給你了。

Thanks, Ryan, and hello, everyone. I'd like to start out by recognizing our people for their efforts in successfully managing through four different named winter storms, which was spread over 11 days and impacted a wide portion of our route network with intense weather conditions and frigid temperatures this month. These overlapping winter systems definitely put our winter operations preparedness plan to the test.

謝謝瑞安，大家好。首先，我想對我們的員工成功應對四場不同名稱的冬季風暴的努力表示認可，這些風暴持續了 11 天，本月惡劣的天氣條件和寒冷的氣溫影響了我們航線網絡的大部分地區。這些重疊的冬季系統無疑地使我們的冬季行動準備計劃受到了考驗。

Overall, I'm very pleased with how well we managed the storms. The sheer magnitude of these weather systems resulted in significant cancellations, the vast majority of which were proactive on our part. Our cancellations were made 14 hours in advance on average, and 70% were canceled with at least 6 hours in advance. As you can imagine, providing that much notice improves the customer experience. In fact, we have found that it can result in NPS scores that approximate those with customers with no disruption to their itinerary.

總的來說，我對我們應對風暴的表現感到非常滿意。這些天氣系統的嚴重程度導致了航班的大量取消，其中絕大多數是我們主動採取的。我們平均提前 14 小時取消，70% 至少提前 6 小時取消。正如您可以想像的那樣，提供如此多的通知可以改善客戶體驗。事實上，我們發現，它可以使 NPS 分數與客戶的 NPS 分數相近，而不會影響他們的行程。

Overall cancellation rates were in line with the industry and were primarily isolated to the operations directly impacted by the storms, with fewer than 2% of our cancellations tied to crew scheduling challenges. This is in significant contrast to what we experienced with Winter Storm Elliot in December 2022. The improvement is directly the result of last year's winter operations investments and protocols. I echo Bob's sentiments that we are in a much better spot today than a year ago. In the past year, we not only completed the winter operations preparedness plan. We also delivered on a long list of initiatives to modernize our operation with benefits for both our customers and our employees.

整體取消率與行業一致，並且主要與直接受風暴影響的業務無關，只有不到 2% 的取消與機組調度挑戰有關。這與我們在 2022 年 12 月經歷的冬季風暴艾略特形成鮮明對比。這種改善直接歸功於去年冬季營運投資和協議的結果。我同意鮑勃的觀點，即我們今天的處境比一年前好得多。過去的一年，我們不僅完成了冬季營運準備計畫。我們還實施了一系列舉措，以實現營運現代化，為我們的客戶和員工帶來雙贏。

Our people have the staffing, equipment, tools and infrastructure to operate safely and at pace in winter weather. The good news is that all the hard work showed up in our operational performance. We closed out 2023 with only about 1% of our total flights canceled, and we improved in basically every metric. Our completion factor, on-time performance, early morning originators, turn compliance and turn differential and mishandled bag rate, all showed substantial year-over-year improvement, which in turn led to a year-over-year improvement in our trip Net Promoter Score.

我們的員工擁有在冬季安全、快速運作的人員、設備、工具和基礎設施。好消息是，所有的努力都體現在我們的營運表現上。 2023 年結束時，我們的航班總數中僅取消了約 1%，而且我們基本上在每個指標上都取得了進展。我們的完成率、準時表現、清晨始發者、轉彎合規性、轉彎差異以及行李誤處理率均顯示出同比大幅改善，這反過來又導致我們的旅行淨推薦值同比改善分數。

As we enter 2024, we will focus on continuing to build on our 2023 priority of operating quality. We ranked fourth place in the 2023 Wall Street Journal Airline Quality Metrics, despite several of the metrics covering the Winter Storm Elliot period. Our goal is to move up this ranking and ultimately be ranked #1. We will also double down on three additional priorities: bringing out operating inefficiencies, increasing asset productivity and creating operating leverage by reducing structural costs. These are multiyear initiative-based efforts, which will begin yielding material benefits in 2025. We'll share more on these in the coming months.

進入 2024 年，我們將專注於繼續鞏固 2023 年營運品質優先目標。儘管多項指標涵蓋了冬季風暴艾略特時期，但我們在 2023 年《華爾街日報》航空公司品質指標中排名第四。我們的目標是提升排名並最終排名第一。我們還將加倍關注另外三個優先事項：消除營運效率低下、提高資產生產力以及透過降低結構性成本創造營運槓桿。這些是基於倡議的多年努力，將於 2025 年開始產生物質效益。我們將在未來幾個月分享更多相關內容。

Finally, I'd like to close by congratulating our pilots on their new contract. I'd also like to thank all the negotiating teams who have worked so hard to reach nine agreements since October of 2022. These teams worked tirelessly, and I am pleased we can reward employees with well-deserved pay increases and quality of life enhancements. We remain in negotiations with two union-represented groups, TWU 555 and TWU 556, and we look forward to reaching agreements that reward those employees for their contributions. So with that, I'll turn it back over to Julia.

最後，我要祝賀我們的飛行員獲得新合約。我還要感謝自 2022 年 10 月以來為達成九項協議而付出巨大努力的所有談判團隊。這些團隊不知疲倦地工作，我很高興我們能夠以當之無愧的加薪和提高生活質量來獎勵員工。我們仍在與兩個工會代表團體 TWU 555 和 TWU 556 進行談判，我們期待達成協議，獎勵這些員工的貢獻。因此，我會將其轉回給朱莉婭。

Thank you, Andrew. This completes our prepared remarks. We will now open the line for analyst questions. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝你，安德魯。我們準備好的演講到此結束。我們現在將開通分析師提問專線。 （操作員說明）

(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from Ravi Shanker with Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Ravi Shanker。

Maybe we can start with the $1.5 billion kind of initiatives. Any chance you can share more detail there, kind of details on what the different contributing items are? And also, how much visibility do you have into that? Trying to get a sense of how much of that may be in the bag, so to speak.

也許我們可以從 15 億美元的舉措開始。您是否有機會在那裡分享更多詳細信息，有關不同貢獻項目的詳細信息？而且，您對此有多少了解？可以這麼說，試著去了解袋子裡可能有多少東西。

Ravi, it's Bob. I'll start, and then maybe Ryan can jump in. Obviously, a lot of the year-over-year improvement counts on the initiatives delivering, and I feel very confident about that. I mean some of this is our Investor Day initiatives continuing to perform. And then on top of that, you have new things, a lot of which -- the majority of which are the network improvements, which, as you know, were in place materially beginning in March and then fully in place by early summer. And so we have a lot of confidence in those -- certainly, the Investor Day initiatives delivering. And while it's early in the quarter, we have some line of sight into, obviously, March and how well the network change and optimization is delivering, and we're on track there. It's things like -- it's basically adjusting for new demand patterns. It's adjusting -- you know what they are. The Tuesday, Wednesday shoulder flying, those kinds of things. But no, I feel like we're on track to hit that incremental $1.5 billion. Again, most of that is revenue. About 2/3 of that is revenue related. Ryan, do you want to add anything?

拉維，我是鮑伯。我先開始，然後 Ryan 可能會介入。顯然，許多同比改進都依賴計劃的實施，我對此非常有信心。我的意思是，其中一些是我們繼續執行的投資者日計劃。除此之外，還有很多新的東西——其中大部分是網路改進，正如你所知，這些改進從三月開始就已經實質到位，然後到初夏就完全到位。因此，我們對這些——當然，投資者日計劃的實施充滿信心。雖然現在還處於本季度初期，但我們顯然對 3 月以及網路變革和優化的交付情況有一定的了解，而且我們正在步入正軌。它基本上是在適應新的需求模式。它正在調整——你知道它們是什麼。週二、週三肩飛，諸如此類的事情。但不，我覺得我們有望達到 15 億美元的增量。同樣，其中大部分是收入。其中約 2/3 與收入相關。瑞安，你想補充什麼嗎？

Yes. Of the revenue initiatives there, a lot -- most of that is the network optimization and then continuing maturation of some of our development markets. Development market percentage of mix continues to get more back to normal ranges by the end of 2024, so that certainly will help. And obviously, we've been able to watch those development markets mature throughout their curve here over the last few years.

是的。那裡的收入舉措有很多——其中大部分是網頁優化，然後是我們一些開發市場的持續成熟。到 2024 年底，開發市場的混合比例將繼續恢復到正常範圍，因此這肯定會有所幫助。顯然，在過去幾年中，我們已經能夠看到這些開發市場在整個曲線上的成熟。

As it relates to the other revenue initiatives that are in place, they will continue to mature and then also provide additional benefit as we -- as the airline grows. A significant portion of that is the managed business initiatives that we've been talking about. And I'm very confident in how -- that those sets of initiatives continue to perform. We're definitely on track.

由於它與現有的其他收入計劃有關，因此它們將繼續成熟，然後隨著我們——隨著航空公司的發展——提供額外的好處。其中很大一部分是我們一直在討論的託管業務計劃。我對這些舉措如何繼續發揮作用非常有信心。我們絕對走上正軌了。

Managed business got better in the fourth quarter from how it was performing in the third quarter, and then we're expecting another sequential improvement here in the first quarter with managed business. We can see that in place in how bookings are coming in, in January and as we begin to get into the February booking curve here. So yes, everything that we can see, how we finished the fourth quarter and then what we can see here in the first quarter and going forward makes me very confident.

託管業務在第四季度的表現較第三季度有所改善，然後我們預計託管業務在第一季將再次出現連續性改善。我們可以從 1 月的預訂情況以及開始進入 2 月的預訂曲線中看到這一點。所以，是的，我們能看到的一切，我們如何完成第四季度，然後我們在第一季看到的一切以及未來的發展都讓我非常有信心。

Very helpful. And maybe as a quick follow-up. I'd love to get your thoughts on the apparent premiumization of the domestic product. Obviously, you guys are committed to single cabin. But does that give you kind of more room to raise RASM across the product? Or kind of just what would your response to that be?

很有幫助。也許作為一個快速的後續行動。我很想聽聽您對國內產品明顯高端化的看法。顯然，你們都致力於單人小屋。但這是否會為您在整個產品中提升 RASM 的更大空間？或者你對此有何反應？

Well, premium certainly is a hot topic in the industry, and it's something that we watch -- that we're watching closely. We also talk to our customers on a regular basis. This is one of the things that we continue to get their feedback on. And I think we talked about it some on the last call. As you think about premium, historically in the industry, premium revenue has been highly cyclical. This is one of those times where carriers are adding premium seats into the cabin.

嗯，溢價無疑是業界的熱門話題，也是我們正在密切關注的事情。我們也定期與客戶交談。這是我們不斷收到他們回饋的事情之一。我想我們在上次通話中對此進行了一些討論。當你想到保費時，從行業歷史來看，保費收入具有很強的周期性。這是航空公司在機艙中增加高級座位的時期之一。

But when the economic cycle shifts, they're pulling seats, premium seats out of the cabin. And so as we see kind of the recovery here from the pandemic, we'll have to see how these trends persist and go forward. I think overall RASM, obviously, we follow that and how we compare relative to the industry. And we're working on improving that as we go forward here. I will say that ancillary revenue, the majority of which is boarding products, our EarlyBird product as well as our Upgraded Boarding product is doing very well. We're having record ancillary revenue performance. And so I think, yes, we have a single cabin, but we're able to improve RASM and grow ancillary revenue through some of those boarding products as well.

但當經濟週期改變時，他們就會把座位、高級座位撤出機艙。因此，當我們看到這裡從大流行中復甦時，我們必須看看這些趨勢如何持續並繼續發展。我認為，顯然，總體而言，我們遵循 RASM 以及我們與業界的比較方式。當我們在這裡前進時，我們正在努力改進這一點。我想說的是，輔助收入（其中大部分是寄宿產品）、我們的早鳥產品以及升級寄宿產品表現非常好。我們的輔助收入績效創歷史新高。所以我認為，是的，我們只有一個客艙，但我們也能夠改善 RASM 並透過其中一些登機產品增加輔助收入。

The next question is from Jamie Baker with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jamie Baker。

Obviously, lots of discussion about domestic capacity -- woah, sorry, I'm still there, right?

顯然，有很多關於國內容量的討論——哇，抱歉，我還在那兒，對吧？

Yes. You're there.

是的。你在那裡。

Sorry about that. That was probably the tamest expletive that I've ever said. Lots of discussion about domestic capacity cuts, your own and others. Just curious though, in markets where you overlap with lower-cost competitors, have you seen any changes in how they're competing other than just the capacity cuts? I mean there's been speculation of lower [OA] pricing as some of those airlines try to regain profitability. I'm not seeing any of that, but it's that sort of thing that I'm asking you about.

對於那個很抱歉。這可能是我說過的最溫和的髒話了。關於國內產能削減的大量討論，無論是你自己的還是其他人的。只是好奇，在與低成本競爭對手重疊的市場中，除了產能削減之外，您是否看到他們的競爭方式發生了任何變化？我的意思是，隨著其中一些航空公司試圖恢復盈利，有人猜測 [OA] 定價會降低。我沒有看到這些，但我要問你的正是這類事情。

Yes, Jamie, obviously, there are -- I mean, there are probably as many moving parts right now as I've ever seen. You've got -- as Ryan talked about, you've got a focus on parts of the cabin that are outperforming our route network that are outperforming. You've got a lot of capacity moving around in the industry right now. You've got mergers, so it's tough to tell that. And on top of that, obviously, you've got capacity impacts due to aircraft delivery, the GTF issues, all those things. So I think it's tough to tease out. My guess would be that all of those factors probably get worse across the year. The impact of those are going to continue to increase, especially as you see more impacts on capacity and aircraft due to potential Boeing impacts, obviously, the geared turbofan. So more to follow.

是的，傑米，顯然，有——我的意思是，現在可能有我所見過的盡可能多的活動部件。正如瑞安所說，您將重點放在機艙中表現優於我們的航線網絡的部分。目前該產業有大量產能在流動。你已經進行了合併，所以很難說。最重要的是，顯然，由於飛機交付、GTF 問題等所有因素，您也受到了運力影響。所以我認為很難梳理清楚。我的猜測是，所有這些因素今年可能會變得更糟。這些影響將繼續增加，特別是當你看到由於波音公司的潛在影響（顯然是齒輪傳動渦輪風扇發動機）而對容量和飛機產生更多影響時。所以還有更多要遵守。

On our end, obviously, we're focused on Southwest Airlines. I'm really pleased with 2023 and all that we got accomplished that we talked about. We ended the year a much better carrier than we were the year before. The area, of course, where I'm not satisfied is our financial performance. We're running roughly 4 points under our cost of capital right now. And that is our focus here at Southwest, and we've got a really good plan here in '24...

顯然，我們關注的是西南航空。我對 2023 年以及我們所談論的所有成就感到非常滿意。今年結束時，我們的營運商比前一年好得多。當然，我不滿意的地方是我們的財務表現。目前我們的資本成本大約低了 4 個百分點。這就是我們西南航空的重點，我們在 24 年有一個非常好的計劃...

Pardon me. This is the conference operator. We seemed to have lost connection with the speaker's location. Please standby while we try to rejoin. Thank you.

對不起。這是會議操作員。我們似乎與說話者的位置失去了聯繫。當我們嘗試重新加入時，請等待。謝謝。

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

Jamie, my apologies there. I don't know where we left off. But my point is we are focused on Southwest. We're focused in '24 year on expanding margins, covering our cost of capital. That sets us up for a lot of momentum to then even -- make even more progress in '25 and thinking about capacity for Southwest Airlines, our capacity. Our CapEx, as we plan forward, will obviously take into consideration the progress we are making against those financial goals. I just want you to know that. The backdrop of the industry, I think, is going to play out here across 2024, and we'll just have to see.

傑米，我很抱歉。我不知道我們從哪裡停下來的。但我的觀點是我們專注於西南航空。 24 年我們的重點是擴大利潤，涵蓋我們的資本成本。這為我們提供了很大的動力，以便在 25 年取得更大的進步，並考慮西南航空的運力，即我們的運力。在我們未來的計劃中，我們的資本支出顯然會考慮到我們在實現這些財務目標方面所取得的進展。我只是想讓你知道這一點。我認為，整個產業的背景將在 2024 年上演，我們拭目以待。

Okay. Helpful. And then second, you've disclosed in the past that you have seriously considered a second fleet type, but decided not to go down that path. I don't have to tell you that industry animosity towards your sole provider is obviously crescendo-ing. Would it be unreasonable to assume your single-fleet conviction might finally begin to wane from here? Or is that putting words in your mouth?

好的。有幫助。其次，您過去曾透露，您曾認真考慮過第二種機隊類型，但決定不走這條路。我不必告訴您，該行業對您的唯一供應商的敵意顯然正在加劇。假設你對單一艦隊的信念最終可能會從這裡開始減弱，這是不合理的嗎？或者說這是把話放在嘴裡？

Well, let me just back up a second. Obviously, there's a lot going on with Boeing. I mean, the MAX 8 is a great aircraft. We're very satisfied with it. And like Boeing, we support the work of the FAA and the oversight to improve quality, address any issues because at the end of the day, a better Boeing is good for Southwest Airlines. The -- we periodically look at aircraft manufacturers and aircraft types. That's something we take up routinely here at Southwest Airlines.

好吧，讓我退一步。顯然，波音公司正在發生很多事情。我的意思是，MAX 8 是一架很棒的飛機。我們對此非常滿意。與波音公司一樣，我們支持美國聯邦航空局的工作以及提高品質、解決任何問題的監督，因為歸根結底，更好的波音公司對西南航空有好處。 - 我們定期查看飛機製造商和飛機類型。這是我們在西南航空經常處理的事情。

We've done that in the past. And our focus right now is on our own fleet plan, our fleet plan with Boeing. Obviously, working with Boeing to get the MAX 7 certified. But we do take that up periodically. You also have to understand, every -- I know you know this, but there isn't -- as such, there's no such thing as being able to de-risk all of this. Even if you have multiple aircraft providers, say we were 50-50, you'd have 400 aircraft of one type and 400 of another type, and so an issue still creates great risk for the company.

我們過去就這麼做過。我們現在的重點是我們自己的機隊計劃，我們與波音公司的機隊計劃。顯然，與波音公司合作讓 MAX 7 獲得認證。但我們確實會定期處理這個問題。你也必須明白，每一個——我知道你知道這一點，但沒有——因此，不存在能夠消除所有這些風險的事情。即使你有多個飛機供應商，比如說我們有50-50 家，你也會有400 架某種類型的飛機和400 架另一種類型的飛機，因此出現問題仍然會給公司帶來很大的風險。

So the best thing that we can do is work with Boeing to make them an even better company, which is exactly what's happening. We've got great confidence again in the MAX 8, and we're eager to get the MAX 7. We're not in charge of that certification date. But no, we have confidence that Boeing will get all this figured out with the FAA and will come out a better company.

因此，我們能做的最好的事情就是與波音公司合作，使他們成為一家更好的公司，而這正是正在發生的事情。我們對 MAX 8 再次充滿信心，並且渴望獲得 MAX 7。我們不負責該認證日期。但不，我們有信心波音公司將與美國聯邦航空局一起解決所有這些問題，並將成為一家更好的公司。

The next question is from Catherine O'Brien with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的凱瑟琳·奧布萊恩。

Maybe just a couple of quick ones. On unit revenue going forward, underlying your double-digit top line forecast for the year, can you just help us think about where we go from the 1Q unit revenue forecast? I'm assuming based on the full year capacity outlook, growth is going to slow from the first quarter into the remaining quarters of the year. So that would be a sequential tailwind. You'll be lapping some of that easy comp from the book away as we move through the year. How does that all impact where you think unit revenue trends quarter-to-quarter? Anything else lumpy we should be considering?

也許只是幾個快速的。關於未來的單位收入，作為今年兩位數營收預測的基礎，您能否幫助我們思考第一季單位收入預測的走向？我假設根據全年產能前景，從第一季到今年剩餘季度的成長將會放緩。因此，這將是一個連續的順風車。當我們度過這一年的時候，你將會從書中學到一些簡單的比較。這對您認為每季的單位收入趨勢有何影響？我們還應該考慮其他什麼問題嗎？

I'll start off and then Ryan, if you want to jump in with any thoughts that you have. Really, there -- as you pointed out, there's a bit of noise year-over-year. So probably, the best way to kind of help you think through that is sequentially. As you're aware, the first quarter is seasonally a tougher quarter just in general for the airline industry. And we will have our network changes materially in place in March. So -- and then following on into the summer, we expect to have that fully completed with our summer schedules.

如果你想談談你的想法，我會先開始，然後是 Ryan。確實，正如您所指出的，逐年出現一些噪音。所以，幫助你思考這個問題的最好方法可能就是按順序進行。如您所知，對於航空業來說，第一季總體來說是一個季節性較為困難的季度。我們將於三月對網路進行重大調整。因此，進入夏季後，我們預計將按照我們的夏季日程完全完成。

And then just as we continue to go through the year, we would expect our development markets to continue to mature. You were -- 10% of our system is development market. And by the end of the year, we expect that to be more in line with our historical percentage of about, call it, 5%. And then on top of that, as Ryan covered, we are -- we believe we'll continue to grow our managed business revenue. We've been pleased with our GDS initiative, and we would expect those benefits to steadily improve as we go through the year. So we would expect, we've got a lot of momentum coming into this year. And we would expect that to continue and build...

然後，隨著這一年的繼續，我們預計我們的開發市場將繼續成熟。我們系統的 10% 是開發市場。到今年年底，我們預計這一比例將更符合我們 5% 左右的歷史百分比。最重要的是，正如瑞安所說，我們相信我們將繼續增加我們的託管業務收入。我們對 GDS 計劃非常滿意，並且預計這些收益將在這一年中穩步提高。所以我們預計，今年我們將有很大的動力。我們希望這種情況能夠繼續下去並建立......

Pardon me. This is the conference operator. We've again lost audio from the speaker location. Please standby as we try to regain it. Thank you.

對不起。這是會議操作員。我們再次遺失了揚聲器位置的音訊。請等待，我們正在努力恢復它。謝謝。

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

Everybody, sorry about it. We're having some form of conference call issue here. My apologies. But I would just pile on, just simply, maybe talk to -- covering what Tammy did, which is you have decelerating capacity across the year: 10%, Q1; 8% to 10% in the second quarter, 3% to 5% in the third quarter. And then the back half of the year really is all just [stage] linked. Trips are down. Seats are down. On top of that, the initiatives and particularly the network-related revenue initiatives and the development market-related initiatives accelerate because they start -- they really started in March, accelerated through the summer. So you have decreasing capacity across the year, and you have an accelerated contribution from the network initiatives across the year. That's an indirect answer to your question, but that's how I'm thinking about it.

大家，抱歉了。我們這裡有某種形式的電話會議問題。我很抱歉。但我只想簡單地談談——涵蓋塔米所做的事情，即你全年的減速能力：第一季 10%；第二季8%至10%，第三季3%至5%。然後下半年真的一切都與[舞台]相關。出行次數減少了。座位都放下來了最重要的是，這些舉措，特別是與網路相關的收入舉措和與開發市場相關的舉措，都在加速，因為它們實際上是從三月開始的，整個夏天都在加速。因此，全年容量不斷減少，而全年網路計畫的貢獻卻加速成長。這是對你問題的間接回答，但這就是我的想法。

Yes. And I wouldn't add anything else, other than to say that the revenue initiatives, that component of the plan, those are -- there's very little lumpiness in those as well. Those are pretty evenly spread throughout the year. So it's really about the decelerating capacity in the back half of the year and the network maturation and optimization efforts coming on.

是的。我不會添加任何其他內容，除了說收入計劃，即計劃的組成部分，這些計劃也沒有什麼混亂之處。這些在全年中分佈相當均勻。因此，這實際上與下半年容量的減速以及即將進行的網路成熟和優化工作有關。

Makes a lot of sense. And then maybe just for my second question. Would just like to talk about the unit cost side for this year. And I know, very early, but maybe like for first look into '25. Can you talk to us just about like some of the incremental headwinds you're expecting for 2024 versus what you were thinking back earlier in 2023, when you were targeting unit costs to be down year-over-year? Of course, at least a couple of points, that's lower capacity, the pilot contract came in higher. It would be great if you could just walk us from that, down year-over-year to up 6% to 7%. And then, again, early, but into 2025, if we've lapped the big step-up in wages and are back to something more inflationary plus, I'm guessing you're going to get more efficiency back as you go into year 2 of kind of the network recovery in your optimization phase. Like is that when we get the down year-over-year? Any color there would be great.

很有道理。然後也許只是我的第二個問題。只是想談談今年的單位成本方面。我知道，很早，但也許就像第一次審視 25 年一樣。您能否與我們談談您預計 2024 年會出現的一些增量阻力與您在 2023 年早些時候的想法（當時您的目標是單位成本同比下降）？當然，至少有幾點，就是容量較低，試辦合約較高。如果您能帶領我們從年比下降到成長 6% 至 7%，那就太好了。然後，再一次，早期，但到了 2025 年，如果我們已經完成了工資的大幅上漲，並回到了通貨膨脹率更高的水平，我猜你會在進入這一年時獲得更高的效率2 優化階段的網路恢復。就像我們逐年下跌時的情況一樣嗎？任何顏色都會很棒。

I'll start, and then I'm sure Tammy will pile in. I mean the -- we were accrued for our labor contract increases here. We've got nine done, two to go. It's really -- for the most part, it's rate increases here in 2024. So if you take the pilots, for example, they've got a 4% rate increase. We've got some benefit increases. That's the majority of the 6% to 7%. On top of that, you have maintenance pressure that was known. It's really the 800 engines coming off holiday, and that's a couple of points.

我先開始，然後我確信塔米會加入進來。我的意思是——我們在這裡增加了勞動合約。我們已經完成了九個，還剩下兩個。事實上，在大多數情況下，2024 年的費率都會上漲。因此，如果以試點計畫為例，他們的費率會上漲 4%。我們的福利有所增加。這是 6% 到 7% 中的大多數。最重要的是，您還面臨著眾所周知的維護壓力。這確實是 800 台引擎即將結束假期，這是幾點。

Those are going to be things, wage rate pressure, maintenance pressure that most of the industry shares. Now on the efficiency side, as we go across the year, we've peaked our hiring, and we will -- our target is to end the year in '24 with fewer heads than we ended the year 2023, which will, of course, naturally make us more efficient with the 7% growth. It's too early to talk about 2025.

這些都是大多數行業都面臨的問題，薪資壓力、維護壓力。現在在效率方面，隨著我們全年的發展，我們的招聘已經達到頂峰，我們的目標是在 24 年結束時，員工人數少於 2023 年結束時的人數，這當然會，7%的增長自然讓我們效率更高。現在談論 2025 年還為時過早。

But as you maybe think about a forecast there, yes, you would naturally decelerate from the unit cost pressure this year. And our goal -- we're not ready to give you a number, of course, for '25. But our goal will be to dramatically control that headcount growth again in 2025. And we'll be sharing a lot more about that at our Investor Day later in the year. Tammy, do you want to add anything?

但當你考慮那裡的預測時，是的，你今年的單位成本壓力自然會放緩。我們的目標——當然，我們還沒準備好給你 25 年的數字。但我們的目標是在 2025 年再次大幅控制員工人數成長。我們將在今年稍後的投資者日分享更多相關資訊。塔米，你想補充什麼嗎？

Yes, you really covered it all. But yes, the story is actually quite simple. It's labor cost, labor rate cost. Obviously, the inflation there is more than we would have anticipated initially. So we've -- with the pilot contract behind us, we've adjusted our accruals. So most of 2024 is associated with the step-up in scale increases, wage rate increases and enhanced benefits. And Bob covered the maintenance, and we'll share more at Investor Day. But obviously, we're focused on bringing out those efficiencies as we move through 2024 and to a greater degree in 2025.

是的，你確實涵蓋了這一切。但是，是的，這個故事實際上很簡單。就是人工成本，人工費率成本。顯然，那裡的通貨膨脹超出了我們最初的預期。因此，隨著試點合約的簽訂，我們調整了應計項目。因此，2024年的大部分時間都與規模擴大、薪資上漲和福利增強有關。鮑伯負責維護工作，我們將在投資者日分享更多資訊。但顯然，我們的重點是在 2024 年實現這些效率，並在 2025 年實現更大程度的提升。

The next question is from Duane Pfennigwerth with Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Duane Pfennigwerth。

So maybe just one more shot at this. Can you give us your best guess as to the contributors to the sequential improvement here? How much of that 5 points would you attribute to these network realignment initiatives? And how much would you attribute to just better underlying demand? It's been challenging with airlines to really make a read about the macro based on what airlines are doing in any given quarter. Just like in the third quarter of last year, I didn't think that was a particularly good read on the macro. But if you just look at this revenue outlook here, what is your business telling you about the macro? And are you seeing acceleration? And if so, where?

所以也許只是再一次嘗試。您能否向我們提供您對連續改進的貢獻者的最佳猜測？您將這 5 點中的多少歸因於這些網絡重組舉措？您將在多大程度上歸因於更好的潛在需求？對於航空公司來說，根據航空公司在任何特定季度的表現來真正了解宏觀形勢一直是一項挑戰。就像去年第三季一樣，我認為這不是一個特別好的宏觀解讀。但如果你只看這裡的收入前景，你的企業告訴你關於宏觀的什麼？你看到加速度了嗎？如果是的話，在哪裡？

Yes, Duane, it's Ryan. I think the macro environment for demand overall is very strong. I mean the way that we closed the fourth quarter, we saw close-in performance kind of accelerate in the holiday time period, which had us -- we came in above our expectations at that point. So I think that, that was a good sign as we got into the year.

是的，杜安，我是瑞安。我認為整體需求的宏觀環境非常強勁。我的意思是，我們在第四季度結束時看到，假期期間的業績接近加速，這讓我們當時的表現超出了我們的預期。所以我認為，這是我們進入這一年的一個好兆頭。

And as you sit here in the first quarter, the beginning of the first quarter, we've got about 60% of bookings on hand. That's plenty for us to get a good read on how the macro trends are performing. I think demand looks very strong in January and February, which are typically trough periods here. We're performing just fine. As you look into the stronger periods into March, I think spring break travel and the Easter travel period, that's looking very well.

當你坐在這裡的時候，第一季度，第一季度初，我們手頭上有大約 60% 的預訂。這足以讓我們充分了解宏觀趨勢的表現。我認為一月和二月的需求看起來非常強勁，這通常是這裡的低谷期。我們表現得很好。當你觀察三月的強勁時期時，我認為春假旅行和復活節旅行時期看起來非常好。

And then probably also, as it relates to the overall macro environment, if you just look at managed business trends, I think I mentioned this earlier. Fourth quarter was better than third quarter, and first quarter is expected to be better than the fourth. We've got very strong bookings in place on the managed business side here for February as we begin to get into that part of the curve. So I think the overall macro environment sets up well for us having a really good year.

然後可能也是，因為它與整體宏觀環境有關，如果你只看託管業務趨勢，我想我之前提到過這一點。第四季好於三季度，預計第一季好於第四季。當我們開始進入曲線的這一部分時，我們在二月份的託管業務方面已經有了非常強勁的預訂。因此，我認為整體宏觀環境為我們度過了非常美好的一年奠定了良好的基礎。

Just a follow-up there. Any focus cities or parts of the country that are kind of waking back up for you?

只是後續行動。全國有哪些重點城市或部分地區正在為您甦醒？

Well, I would say destination-based markets are doing very well. International is doing very well. Hawaii, we beat our expectations in the fourth quarter. Phoenix, Orlando, Vegas, those markets are doing very well for us. I think when you look, California was slower to come back. It's doing -- it's improving for sure, so it's definitely pockets across the network. But again, I think overall, things continue to improve.

嗯，我想說基於目的地的市場表現非常好。國際做得很好。夏威夷，我們在第四季度超出了我們的預期。菲尼克斯、奧蘭多、維加斯，這些市場對我們來說表現非常好。我想，當你觀察時，加州的回歸速度較慢。它正在做——它肯定在改進，所以它肯定是整個網路的口袋。但我再次認為，總體而言，情況正在持續改善。

The next question is from Brandon Oglenski with Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的布蘭登‧奧格倫斯基。

So can I come back, I think, to the first Q&A here, which was about the premiumization of the industry? Because I think what we did observe through 2023 was some growing yield differential between yourself and maybe some low-cost competitors, relative to the network airlines. And I guess, I just want to ask the question maybe more bluntly or directly. Does products matter? And does it matter as you go further in distance and longer in flight length? And I guess I'd specifically ask about your experience in Hawaii as well. And I guess how do these initiatives that you guys are talking about on the commercial side start to try to address that?

那麼我想我可以回到這裡的第一個問答，這是關於行業的高端化嗎？因為我認為，到 2023 年，我們確實觀察到，相對於網路航空公司，您與一些低成本競爭對手之間的收益率差異正在不斷擴大。我想，我只是想更直白或更直接地問這個問題。產品重要嗎？當您距離更遠、飛行距離更長時，這有什麼關係嗎？我想我也會特別詢問您在夏威夷的經驗。我想你們在商業方面談論的這些措施是如何開始嘗試解決這個問題的？

Well, first of all, I would say, absolutely, product matters. And I think that certainly from a coach product, Southwest Airlines has the best coach product in the industry. I would just echo what I said on the premium component, that this is highly cyclical. And I think that we want -- before we would take up that question, you would want to -- or we would want to study that very closely as we think about that.

嗯，首先，我想說，產品絕對重要。我認為，從客車產品來看，西南航空無疑擁有業界最好的客車產品。我只是重複我在優質部分所說的話，即這是高度週期性的。我認為我們想要——在我們討論這個問題之前，你會想要——或者我們想要在我們思考這個問題時非常仔細地研究這個問題。

Your question on how do we do relative in a long-haul market like Hawaii, as I mentioned, we beat expectations. We beat our own expectations for Hawaii in the fourth quarter. I think our yields continue to improve in the Mainland to Hawaii component of that franchise. And we'll continue to develop those yields further. But no, I think that our product fares very well even in long-haul markets. But yes, on the whole, I think product matters.

正如我所提到的，您關於我們如何在夏威夷這樣的長途市場中做相對的問題，我們超出了預期。我們在第四季度超出了我們對夏威夷的預期。我認為我們從大陸到夏威夷的專營權部分的產量繼續提高。我們將繼續進一步提高這些產量。但不，我認為我們的產品即使在長途市場上也表現得很好。但總的來說，我認為產品很重要。

And I think when you look at the industry together, I think that there's at least some evidence out there today that demand for fares on the bottom end and lower -- products on the lower end of the segment, there may not be as much demand for those types of products today as what there once was.

我認為，當你一起審視這個行業時，我認為今天至少有一些證據表明，對低端和低端票價的需求——該細分市場低端產品的需求可能沒有那麼多。如今這些類型的產品與曾經的產品一樣。

And Brandon, this is Bob. The only thing I would add is -- and this is no prediction. Don't read more into this than is there. You've got to meet your customers' demand and their expectations. So as those change over time, you want to understand that. You want to be -- you want to carefully understand that, and we have a history of demonstrating that. So you go back 10 years, we wouldn't have been talking about WiFi. We would not have been talking about power on the aircraft.

布蘭登，這是鮑伯。我唯一要補充的是──這不是預測。不要閱讀更多內容。您必須滿足客戶的需求和期望。因此，隨著時間的推移，這些會發生變化，你想要理解這一點。你想要——你想要仔細理解這一點，我們有證明這一點的歷史。如果你回到 10 年前，我們就不會談論 WiFi。我們不會談論飛機上的電源。

And we can go on and on and on. There was a time when we didn't even have a loyalty program here at Southwest Airlines. So as consumer demands and expectations change and you've got different generations of flyers coming into the system as well, we will constantly look at that, understand what our customers want. And then if that warrants change, we will look at that, and we will make the right decisions. Again, we have a history of doing that with our product here and our customer experience. That's no predictor regarding premium in the cabin. I'm just trying to make sure that you know that we aren't stubborn in this area. That as you see demands change, we'll understand that and we will react if needed.

我們可以繼續下去。曾經有一段時間，西南航空甚至沒有忠誠度計畫。因此，隨著消費者需求和期望的變化，並且不同世代的傳單也進入系統，我們將持續關注這一點，並了解客戶的需求。然後，如果需要改變，我們會考慮這一點，並做出正確的決定。同樣，我們有透過我們的產品和客戶體驗做到這一點的歷史。這並不能預測機艙內的溢價。我只是想讓你知道我們在這方面並不固執。當您看到需求發生變化時，我們會理解這一點，並在需要時做出反應。

Bob and Ryan, I appreciate that. And then maybe if I can just get a quick follow-up in for Tammy. Any ability to tell us where you view your weighted cost of capital today?

鮑伯和瑞安，我很感激。然後也許我可以快速跟進塔米。您能否告訴我們您對目前加權資本成本的看法？

Yes, sure. It's sitting probably -- it's the high 8s, close between 8% and 9%, so we view it at about 8.6%, 8.7%. But one thing, Brandon, just to add on. Over our longer term, it's been closer to 9%. We certainly look -- we certainly take a view, a longer-term view, when we're planning in terms of our returns on invested capital.

是的，當然。它可能處於高位 8，接近 8% 到 9% 之間，所以我們認為它約為 8.6%、8.7%。但布蘭登，有一點要補充。從長期來看，這一比例接近 9%。當我們規劃投資資本報酬率時，我們當然會考慮──我們當然會採取一種觀點，一種更長遠的觀點。

The next question is from Helane Becker with TD Cowen.

下一個問題來自 Helane Becker 和 TD Cowen。

As I look at your numbers for the fourth quarter, your revenues were up about 12.5% or something, and your costs were up 10.5%. And yet you weren't able to see significant margin improvement because of the things you already talked about where you have inflationary pressure. But as we look forward to the next 1 year, how should we think about the seasonality of your business now? Because it seems like you said everything was great for the fourth quarter, and yet you didn't perform significantly better than you did last year. And I would have thought that last year, given all the issues, you would have performed a lot better. So maybe you can help me bridge beyond just the obvious labor cost inflation and other inflationary pressures. How do you get back to those margins you used to report? And then do you expect -- and then my other question is, do you expect any book away from the flight attendants asking for a strike vote?

當我查看你們第四季的數據時，你們的收入成長了約 12.5% 左右，成本增加了 10.5%。然而，由於您已經談到的通膨壓力的情況，您無法看到利潤率顯著改善。但當我們展望下一個一年時，我們現在應該如何考慮您業務的季節性？因為你好像說第四季一切都很好，但你的表現並沒有比去年好得多。我以為去年，考慮到所有問題，你會表現得更好。因此，也許你可以幫助我克服明顯的勞動成本通膨和其他通膨壓力。如何恢復到以前報告的利潤率？然後你是否期望——然後我的另一個問題是，你是否期望空服員會要求罷工投票？

Yes. Maybe, Helane, thank you. Maybe I can start, and then Tammy can jump in.

是的。也許吧，海蘭，謝謝你。也許我可以開始，然後塔米可以加入。

That was a lot of questions.

這是很多問題。

Yes, I'll try to remember everything. I think just generally, I think the biggest impact, sort of tearing everything aside in the fourth quarter, is we did choose to restore capacity quickly. So basically, that was a choice to, number one, get our aircraft back to normal utilization, fly all of our aircraft, our pilots, all that. And so our capacity, our ramp-up was greater than normal.

是的，我會盡力記住一切。我認為總的來說，我認為最大的影響，有點把第四季的一切都拋在一邊，是我們確實選擇快速恢復產能。所以基本上，這是一個選擇，第一，讓我們的飛機恢復正常使用，駕駛我們所有的飛機、我們的飛行員等等。因此，我們的產能和產能提升都比正常情況更大。

And therefore, we did have -- you could see it, we had a drop in load factor. I think that's the biggest contributor in terms of the performance rate there that's different than normal. And our '24 plan, obviously, is to get back to normal in that area as we normalize capacity. So to me, that's the biggest thing. And I don't attribute any of that -- I'll get to your flight attendant question. We don't -- I don't attribute any of that to book away, in the holidays, for example, related to Elliot or something like that. I think it really was the rate of capacity restoration.

因此，我們確實——你可以看到，我們的載客率有所下降。我認為這是與正常情況不同的性能率的最大貢獻者。顯然，我們的 24 年計劃是在產能正常化的同時使該地區恢復正常。所以對我來說，這是最重要的事。我不會歸因於任何這些——我會回答你的空服員問​​題。我們不——我不認為這些是在假期預訂的，例如與埃利奧特或類似的事情有關。我認為這確實是容量恢復的速度。

As we look at our consumer -- our customer behaviors, we look at our customer metrics, demand for Southwest Airlines, there's no indicator or indication that we saw any hangover or book away. In fact, the holiday periods were the strongest periods of the quarter. Your question about the flight attendants -- and I'm really proud of our labor folks. We ratified nine agreements in just over a year. We have two to go, one of those with TWU 556, our flight attendants. We were in federal mediation. And in federal mediation, you follow the mediator, and the mediator determines your dates and when you meet, and we're eager to get a contract done.

當我們觀察我們的消費者——我們的客戶行為時，我們會觀察我們的客戶指標、對西南航空的需求，沒有任何跡像或跡象表明我們看到任何宿醉或預訂。事實上，假期期間是本季最強勁的時期。你關於空服員的問題——我真的為我們的勞工感到自豪。我們在短短一年多的時間裡批准了九項協議。我們還有兩個人要去，其中一個是我們的空服員 TWU 556。我們正在接受聯邦調解。在聯邦調解中，您遵循調解員，調解員確定您的日期和見面時間，我們渴望完成合約。

And just like our pilots who were in mediation, I'm confident we can do that. The SAV or the strike vote does not mean you are headed to a strike. There are many, many, many things that have to occur before we get to that point, so I'm not worried about a strike despite the strike authorization vote. When we saw our pilots take an SAV or strike authorization vote, we did not see any -- very little customer even indicator that the customers were focused on it or aware. So I don't expect any kind of hangover from that here in terms of customer demand with -- because of the flight attendant vote. Ryan, do you want to add anything there?

就像我們進行調解的飛行員一樣，我相信我們可以做到這一點。 SAV 或罷工投票並不意味著您將參加罷工。在我們到達這一點之前，還有很多很多很多事情必須發生，所以儘管有罷工授權投票，但我並不擔心罷工。當我們看到我們的飛行員進行 SAV 或罷工授權投票時，我們沒有看到任何客戶——很少有客戶甚至表明客戶正在關注或意識到這一點。因此，由於空服人員的投票，我預計不會對客戶需求產生任何影響。 Ryan，妳想補充什麼嗎？

No, there's no evidence in anything that we track from a customer sentiment perspective that would make us concerned about that.

不，我們從客戶情緒角度追蹤的任何事情都沒有證據表明我們會擔心這一點。

That sentiment is fully recovered too at this point. And our NPS scores, our customer satisfaction, have recently have been records and certainly back to pre-pandemic levels.

這種情緒此時也完全恢復了。我們的 NPS 分數、我們的客戶滿意度最近都創下了紀錄，並且肯定回到了疫情前的水平。

We'll take that last question from Dan McKenzie with Seaport Global.

我們將回答 Seaport Global 的 Dan McKenzie 提出的最後一個問題。

I guess on efficiency and further improvement to come in 2025, for investors that want -- or that would like line of sight on where FTEs per aircraft could ultimately go, what prior year could serve as a good benchmark? I guess that's first. And then secondly, is it reasonable to assume Southwest could get there fully in 2025?

我想，關於 2025 年的效率和進一步改進，對於那些想要了解每架飛機的 FTE 最終走向何方的投資者來說，前一年可以作為一個很好的基準嗎？我想那是第一名。其次，假設西南航空能夠在 2025 年完全實現這一目標是否合理？

Yes, I'll answer it directly and Andrew, if you want to chime in. I think we're not ready to talk about it in maybe as much detail as you want until we get to our Investor Day here later this year. But absolutely, it's just like the goal of covering our cost of capital this year and getting back to our historic returns in ROIC well above WACC. Restoring efficiency is right alongside in terms of the key goal -- or a key goal.

是的，我會直接回答這個問題，安德魯，如果你想插話的話。我想我們還沒有準備好像你想要的那樣詳細地討論這個問題，直到今年晚些時候我們在這裡舉行投資者日。但絕對地說，這就像我們今年的目標是涵蓋我們的資本成本，並使我們的投入資本回報率 (ROIC) 恢復到遠高於加權平均資本成本 (WACC) 的歷史回報水平。就關鍵目標而言，復原效率是緊接而來的——或者說是關鍵目標。

We ramped up our hiring quickly to be able to restore the network and get all of our aircraft flying. That hiring peaked in October to November, and we have been decelerating that rapidly here in the last 60 days. The plan is to, again, to grow 6-or-so percent this year and then to end this year with the same or fewer heads than we began the year, which will obviously help our efficiency quite a bit. Not ready to discuss '25, but we would have certainly a directionally similar goal in 2025.

我們迅速增加了招募力度，以便能夠恢復網路並使我們所有的飛機都能飛行。招募人數在 10 月至 11 月期間達到頂峰，但在過去 60 天內，我們的招募速度一直在迅速放緩。計劃再次是今年增長 6% 左右，然後到今年年底時的人頭數量與年初相同或更少，這顯然會對我們的效率有很大幫助。還沒準備好討論 25 年，但我們肯定會在 2025 年有一個方向相似的目標。

We also have a significant number -- hate to be -- hate to tease here. We have a significant number of efficiency initiatives that we are planning around both efficiency of the aircraft, efficiency of our people and processes, as we think about things like the turn. And we'll be sharing a lot more about that again in our Investor Day later this year.

我們也有相當多的人——不願意——討厭在這裡取笑。當我們考慮轉彎等問題時，我們正在圍繞飛機效率、人員效率和流程製定大量效率措施。我們將在今年稍後的投資者日再次分享更多相關內容。

I'd say, Bob, one element to that on that is the same kind of cross-functional groups we used to kind of rapidly accelerate our hiring, that same team is now responsible for driving up these efficiencies. So that is something that is literally every week kind of meeting to get to achieve what you just said about where the head count should be at the end of the year.

我想說，鮑勃，其中一個要素是我們過去用來快速加速招募的同一種跨職能團隊，同一個團隊現在負責提高這些效率。因此，這實際上是每週召開一次會議，以實現您剛才所說的年底員工人數應達到的目標。

And I'd also say that while we're conscious of the FTE per aircraft, we're actually managing through more of a labor or [swift] CASM because if you think about an aircraft, I could fly that different ways. We could say you'd have two flights a day, and my ground ops sees a different [type of flight] 6x a day. And then the block hours for the aircraft would change the pilot pay, if it was a longer block hours per aircraft or less -- if it was less.

我還想說，雖然我們意識到每架飛機的 FTE，但我們實際上是透過更多的勞動力或[快速] CASM 進行管理，因為如果你考慮一架飛機，我可以以不同的方式飛行。我們可以說您每天有兩次航班，而我的地面操作人員每天會看到 6 次不同的[航班類型]。然後，如果每架飛機的停機時間更長或更少（如果更少的話），飛機的停機時間將改變飛行員的薪水。

So the ultimate CASM you get out of your aircraft depends on how you're flying it and how you're deploying staff against it. So the FTE per aircraft is a useful measure one can have. But it's, A, hard to compare across the airlines because of the outsourcing. But B, depending on how you fly the aircraft, it can give some -- a little bit of false signal. But you can really look at what we're going to try to do, for example, labor CASM and get that to a good order.

因此，您從飛機上獲得的最終 CASM 取決於您如何駕駛它以及您如何部署人員來對抗它。因此，每架飛機的 FTE 是一項有用的衡量標準。但由於外包，很難在航空公司之間進行比較。但是 B，根據你駕駛飛機的方式，它可能會發出一些錯誤信號。但你真的可以看看我們將要嘗試做的事情，例如，勞動 CASM 並使其得到良好的秩序。

Very good. And if I could just squeeze one last one in here. It's a question on the shift to the cloud. How much of Southwest has shifted to the cloud at this point? And once you complete that endeavor, what could the savings ultimately look like once that transition is completed? Is it tens of millions, hundreds of millions? And is that an opportunity?

非常好。如果我能把最後一顆塞進去就好了。這是一個關於轉向雲端的問題。目前西南航空有多少業務已轉向雲端？一旦您完成了這項努力，一旦過渡完成，最終節省的成本會是多少？是幾千萬、幾億嗎？這是一個機會嗎？

I'd tell you what, you're stretching my technical abilities here. But I believe, like a lot of companies, we have a path to shift to the cloud. But again, it's to shift the appropriate things to the cloud. It's not as simplistic as it might sound. I think we have shifted something on the order of just below 50% is what I've got in my head, and we have a goal to shift a lot more. Some of that is cost savings, absolutely. And -- but I think that is more modest. A lot of what you gain is reliability and the ability to fail over systems and obviously support operations, support our systems, which is critical here in an airline. You have systems that can't be down 30 minutes before they cause you an operational problem. So a lot of the shift to the cloud is as much a resiliency effort and a modernization of the code base and all that effort as it is a cost savings. Certainly, you'll see cost savings. And -- but I just don't -- not -- my guess is it's more in the tens of millions than it is hundreds of millions.

我想告訴你的是，你在這裡拓展了我的技術能力。但我相信，像許多公司一樣，我們有一條轉向雲端的道路。但同樣，它是將適當的東西轉移到雲端。這並不像聽起來那麼簡單。我認為我們已經改變了一些事情，我的想法是略低於 50%，而且我們的目標是改變更多。其中一些絕對是節省成本。而且——但我認為這更為溫和。您獲得的許多好處是可靠性和系統故障轉移的能力，顯然還有支援營運、支援我們的系統，這對航空公司來說至關重要。您的系統無法在 30 分鐘內停機，否則就會導致操作問題。因此，向雲端的轉變很大程度上是為了實現彈性工作和程式碼庫的現代化以及所有這些工作，同時也是為了節省成本。當然，您會看到成本節省。而且 - 但我只是不 - 不 - 我的猜測是數千萬多於數億。

I think, Bob, we -- I mean, I doubt it's in a [fraction or size] it used to be, so very good progress. But when we talk about it internally, we're not talking so much of the cost. But you can take a hosted bigger system, break it up into micro services that are in the cloud and allows you to then get productivity in how you refresh and improve that application over time. So it's really the speed to market for these new products and support for the products is really what drives the benefit. So it's elsewhere in the business, you get the benefit. Not so much in the kind of hosting cost, if you will.

我想，鮑勃，我們——我的意思是，我懷疑它的[分數或大小]與過去一樣，所以進展非常好。但當我們在內部談論它時，我們並沒有談論太多成本。但是，您可以採用託管的更大系統，將其分解為雲端中的微服務，然後隨著時間的推移，您可以提高刷新和改進應用程式的效率。因此，真正推動效益的因素是這些新產品的上市速度和對產品的支援。因此，在業務的其他方面，您可以獲得好處。如果你願意的話，託管成本並沒有那麼高。

The other piece of that too and then we'll -- I'll stop is the -- there is a -- it's not a tech cost, but there is a very high cost, both revenue and expense, in being down and having an issue. And you saw issues earlier this year or last year, like the NOTAM outage that really hurt the industry. And so to the extent that you can reduce issues, reduce the number of the issues, the length of time of an issue or reduce them completely, my guess is that is more powerful in terms of cost reduction than even the technology reduction because reducing IROPs is very powerful.

另一部分也是如此，然後我們會——我要停止的是——有一個——這不是技術成本，但在陷入困境和擁有技術成本時，收入和費用都非常高。一個問題。今年早些時候或去年您就看到了一些問題，例如確實損害了該行業的 NOTAM 中斷。因此，如果您可以減少問題、減少問題數量、問題持續時間或完全減少問題，我的猜測是，這在降低成本方面比技術減少更有效，因為減少了 IROP非常強大。

Okay. That completes the analyst portion of our call. A quick reminder that the transcript and a replay of the call will be available on our Investor Relations website. I appreciate everyone joining, and have a great day.

好的。我們電話會議的分析師部分就這樣完成了。快速提醒您，電話會議的文字記錄和重播將在我們的投資者關係網站上提供。我感謝大家的加入，祝您有美好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin with our media portion of today's call. I'd like to first introduce Ms. Whitney Eichinger, Chief Communications Officer.

女士們先生們，我們現在開始今天電話會議的媒體部分。首先我想介紹一下首席傳播官Whitney Eichinger女士。

Thanks, Gary. I'd like to welcome members of the media to our call today. Before we begin taking questions, Gary, could you please give instructions on how everyone should queue up for a question?

謝謝，加里。我謹歡迎媒體成員參加我們今天的電話會議。在我們開始提問之前，Gary，您能否指導一下每個人應該如何排隊問題？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Alison Sider with The Wall Street Journal.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自《華爾街日報》的 Alison Sider。

I just wanted to see what you made of Senator Duckworth today calling on the FAA to deny the waiver Boeing had sought for the MAX 7. With that anti-ice issue, do you think that's something Boeing should have to address before they can start delivering those planes?

我只是想看看你對達克沃斯參議員今天呼籲美國聯邦航空局拒絕波音公司為MAX 7 尋求的豁免有何看法。對於防冰問題，你認為這是波音公司在開始交付之前必須解決的問題嗎？那些飛機？

I'll start, and Andrew will pile in. Ali, obviously, the certification of the MAX 7 and the issue there, that's really Boeing. I don't want to speak for Boeing or get ahead here. Obviously, we want the MAX 7 and we want it on the best timing possible. So I don't want to talk for Boeing, but it is one more thing to consider here in the certification process and certification time line.

我先開始，安德魯會插話。阿里，顯然，MAX 7 的認證以及那裡的問題，那確實是波音。我不想代表波音公司發言，也不想在這裡出人頭地。顯然，我們想要 MAX 7，並且希望它能在最好的時機上市。所以我不想代表波音說話，但在認證過程和認證時間表中，這是另一個需要考慮的事情。

I would say that the certification is a technical process between the FAA and Boeing. And I think they've been doing a good job. It's been slower than we would like, but it's been technically based. And it's out for public comment, so it's an opportunity for people to comment on that for technical analysis to be done. And so we're not a party to that. We want the aircraft. It's a question of when we'll get it, not if we'll get it. So we're pleased that they're taking their time to make sure it's safe, and we support whatever way the FAA wants to go.

我想說的是，認證是美國聯邦航空總署和波音公司之間的技術流程。我認為他們做得很好。它比我們希望的要慢，但它是基於技術的。它正在徵求公眾意見，因此這是人們發表評論以進行技術分析的機會。所以我們不參與其中。我們想要飛機。這是我們什麼時候能得到它的問題，而不是我們是否能得到它的問題。因此，我們很高興他們花時間確保安全，並且我們支持聯邦航空局想要採取的任何方法。

And I mean do you have any plans to increase your own oversight of Southwest planes on the Boeing production line?

我的意思是，您是否有計劃加強對波音生產線上西南飛機的監督？

We have already done that. So in late 2022, we changed our posture out there. Previously, we had -- for a long time, we had representatives at the factory. We increased it to a team of A&P-licensed mechanics, whose job is to provide oversight of our aircraft in the production process. The -- Boeing provides customer quality people that are on their payroll but our direction, and so they inspect at places where we ask in the factory.

我們已經做到了。因此，在 2022 年末，我們改變了我們的態度。先前很長一段時間，我們在工廠都有代表。我們將其擴大為一支由 A&P 許可的機械師組成的團隊，他們的工作是在生產過程中對我們的飛機進行監督。波音公司提供客戶品質人員，這些人員在他們的工資單上，但在我們的指導下，因此他們在工廠中我們要求的地方進行檢查。

The few days that Boeing takes to assemble an aircraft from the wings being built to it rolling out, it's about roughly 80 areas where we have our requirements for things to be inspected. Those people inspect -- our people inspect. And then several times a year, our quality assurance team goes up and inspects our inspectors to make sure everything is going well. So that provides a really good oversight in the production process.

波音公司組裝一架飛機，從機翼製造到下線，需要幾天的時間，大約需要檢查 80 個區域。那些人檢查——我們的人檢查。然後，我們的品質保證團隊每年都會對我們的檢查員進行幾次檢查，以確保一切順利。因此，這在生產過程中提供了非常好的監督。

Once it leaves the factory, there's customary acceptance inspections that happen that the FAA oversees and gives a final certificate of airworthiness. And so -- and then it comes on to our op spec, and we -- in our maintenance program, which is quite robust. And since we're the -- by far, the largest operator of the 737, we have provided lots of data. And our continuing analysis and safety surveillance system allows for us to really understand the aircraft and make sure that it's performing and conforming as expected.

一旦離開工廠，美國聯邦航空總署就會進行例行的驗收檢查，並頒發最終的適航證明。所以 - 然後它涉及到我們的操作規範，以及我們 - 在我們的維護計劃中，這是非常強大的。由於我們是迄今為止最大的 737 運營商，因此我們提供了大量數據。我們的持續分析和安全監視系統使我們能夠真正了解飛機並確保其性能符合預期。

The next question is from Leslie Josephs with CNBC.

下一個問題來自 CNBC 的 Leslie Josephs。

I was wondering if you have any thoughts about how a Chapter 7 of an airline in the United States would affect the industry. Are there jobs for those employees should that happen? And then do you think that the Justice Department would ever let you buy another airline?

我想知道您是否對美國航空公司的破產法第七章將如何影響該行業有什麼想法。如果發生這種情況，這些員工還會有工作嗎？那麼您認為司法部會讓您購買另一家航空公司嗎？

Leslie, it's Bob. We don't -- obviously, like I said earlier, there is a lot going on in the industry. They're -- between merger -- potential mergers and acquisitions and issues with aircraft deliveries, the geared turbofan, I don't know. In all my 36 years in the industry, I've seen more moving parts as you have right now. One thing that's consistent here is we stick to our business. So we're focused on Southwest Airlines, improving Southwest Airlines, being the best carrier that we can be, improving our returns and profit margins, all the things we've talked about. It's impossible to speculate on what might happen. Our history would say that as opportunities arise for Southwest, if they make sense, we take a look at that. But I wouldn't want to speculate on anything going on in the industry, certainly around any other carrier.

萊斯利，是鮑伯。我們不知道——顯然，就像我之前所說的那樣，這個行業正在發生很多事情。它們是——在合併之間——潛在的合併和收購，以及飛機交付、齒輪傳動渦輪風扇發動機的問題，我不知道。在我從事這個行業的 36 年裡，我看到了更多像你們現在這樣的改變。這裡始終如一的一件事是我們堅持我們的業務。因此，我們專注於西南航空，改進西南航空，成為最好的航空公司，提高我們的回報和利潤率，所有我們已經討論過的事情。不可能推測可能會發生什麼事。我們的歷史表明，當西南航空出現機會時，如果它們有意義，我們就會考慮這一點。但我不想猜測該行業正在發生的任何事情，尤其是圍繞任何其他運營商的事情。

I think what's the benefit for Southwest Airlines, Bob, is that we have a plan and we control our own destiny. We hit our plan, we get our returns where we need to be. We don't need something to break our way or judge anything else or own anything. Our plan delivers our results.

鮑勃，我認為西南航空的好處是我們有計劃並且我們可以掌控自己的命運。我們完成了我們的計劃，我們得到了我們需要的回報。我們不需要任何東西來打破我們的道路或判斷其他任何東西或擁有任何東西。我們的計劃帶來了我們的結果。

Our next question comes from Rajesh Singh with Reuters.

我們的下一個問題來自路透社的拉傑什辛格。

Andrew, do you have any update on the time line for the certification of MAX 7? Earlier, it was expected by April. So do you see any risk of the certification process getting slowed down due to the current events with Boeing?

Andrew，您對 MAX 7 的認證時間表有什麼更新嗎？此前，預計到四月。那麼，您認為認證過程是否有因波音當前事件而放緩的風險？

Well, we get weekly updates on the status of the certification process, so we know what's been submitted and what hasn't. But obviously then, the FAA is the one who oversees that and inspects it and makes the ultimate decision. Previously, we've indicated that we had -- in our internal plan and assumption, that it would be certified by April and that we would then spend time after that to get it in our op spec. And that could take us the end of the year and, therefore, it wouldn't be flying until next year. But that is -- that was only the latest assumption. We've had earlier assumptions all along this process. And as Tammy mentioned, we will modify our plan based on the new information. So should that change, we will move our assumptions and adapt our plan. So by taking this kind of conservative approach and giving ourselves some lead time, we won't let any kind of short-term ups or downs affect what we have planned for this year.

嗯，我們每週都會收到有關認證流程狀態的更新信息，因此我們知道哪些內容已提交，哪些內容尚未提交。但顯然，美國聯邦航空局是負責監督、檢查並做出最終決定的人。先前，我們已經表示，在我們的內部計劃和假設中，它將在四月份獲得認證，然後我們將花時間將其納入我們的操作規範中。這可能需要到今年年底，因此它要到明年才會飛行。但這只是最新的假設。在整個過程中我們都有早期的假設。正如塔米所提到的，我們將根據新資訊修改我們的計劃。因此，如果這種情況發生變化，我們將改變我們的假設並調整我們的計劃。因此，透過這種保守的做法，給自己一些準備時間，我們不會讓任何短期的起伏影響我們今年的計劃。

And Bob, I have question for you. Do you have confidence in Boeing's current leadership to address issues facing the company?

鮑勃，我有問題想問你。您對波音目前的領導解決公司面臨的問題有信心嗎？

Raj, Boeing has been a partner with us for 52 years. And I have absolute confidence that between the FAA oversight work that's going on, the work that Boeing is doing, that Boeing will -- working with the FAA, will address the quality issues and will obviously come out of this a better company. I've talked personally to their leadership. They're committed to doing anything and everything it takes to be better and to address the problems. And as I said before, a better Boeing is very good for Southwest Airlines. So yes, I have absolute confidence that they will work their way through this and address the issues.

Raj，波音公司已經成為我們的合作夥伴 52 年了。我絕對相信，在美國聯邦航空局正在進行的監督工作和波音公司正在進行的工作之間，波音公司將與美國聯邦航空局合作解決品質問題，並且顯然會成為更好的公司。我曾親自與他們的領導階層交談過。他們致力於盡一切努力變得更好並解決問題。正如我之前所說，更好的波音公司對西南航空非常有利。所以，是的，我絕對相信他們會解決這個問題並解決問題。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Ms. Eichinger for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給艾辛格女士發表閉幕詞。

Thanks, Gary. The news release and our contact information are available at swamedia.com. We thank everyone for joining.

謝謝，加里。新聞稿和我們的聯絡資訊可在 swamedia.com 上取得。我們感謝大家的加入。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。