西南航空召開 2024 年第四季財報電話會議,討論業績、收入動能、營運改善、策略舉措、成本績效、機隊策略和資本配置。他們強調了 2024 年的成就,包括強勁的收入表現和策略性投資。該公司旨在實現其 2025 年息稅前利潤貢獻目標,並透過定期更新來保持透明度。
西南航空專注於實現財務目標、降低成本並實現機隊現代化。他們對自己的進步充滿信心,並對未來的發展感到興奮,包括動態定價和合作關係。
使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Hello, everyone, and welcome to the Southwest Airlines fourth quarter 2024 conference call. I'm Gary, and I'll be moderating today's call, which is being recorded. A replay will be available on southwest.com in the Investor Relations section. (Operator Instructions) Now Julia Landrum, Vice President of Investor Relations, will begin the discussion. Please go ahead, Julia.
大家好,歡迎參加西南航空2024年第四季電話會議。我是加里,我將主持今天的電話會議,會議正在錄音。重播將在 southwest.com 的「投資者關係」欄位中提供。(操作員指示)現在,投資者關係副總裁 Julia Landrum 將開始討論。請繼續,朱莉婭。
Julia Landrum - VP of Investor Relations
Julia Landrum - VP of Investor Relations
Thank you. Hello, everyone, and welcome to Southwest Airlines fourth quarter 2024 earnings call. I'm joined today by our President and CEO and Vice Chairman of the Board, Bob Jordan; Chief Operating Officer, Andrew Watterson; Executive Vice President and Chief Transformation Officer, Ryan Green; and Executive Vice President and CFO, Tammy Romo. Bob will start off by providing a high-level update on the fourth quarter and full year 2024 performance as well as a strategic update on our Southwest. Even Better plan.
謝謝。大家好,歡迎參加西南航空 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。今天與我一起出席活動的還有我們的總裁兼執行長兼董事會副主席鮑勃喬丹 (Bob Jordan);營運長 Andrew Watterson;執行副總裁兼首席轉型長 Ryan Green;以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Tammy Romo。鮑伯將首先介紹第四季和 2024 年全年業績的高層更新以及西南航空的策略更新。甚至是更好的計劃。
He will then turn it over to Andrew to discuss our revenue momentum and our industry-leading operational performance. Ryan will provide a progress update on our portfolio of strategic initiatives, highlighting key milestones achieved. Tammy will follow to walk through cost performance and outlook to also discuss our fleet strategy and cover balance sheet and capital allocation. Bob will wrap this up with a few comments, after which, we will move to Q&A.
然後,他將與安德魯討論我們的收入發展勢頭和行業領先的營運表現。Ryan 將提供我們策略性舉措組合的進度更新,強調已實現的關鍵里程碑。Tammy 將隨後介紹成本績效和前景,並討論我們的機隊策略以及資產負債表和資本配置。鮑伯將用一些評論來總結本次會議,然後我們進入問答環節。
As a reminder, we will make forward-looking statements, which are based on current expectations of future performance. Our actual results could differ materially from expectations. Also, we will reference non-GAAP results, which exclude special items and are called out and reconciled to GAAP results in our earnings press release. Our press release with fourth quarter 2024 results and a supplemental presentation that includes our updated initiative scorecard were both issued this morning and are available on our Investor Relations website.
提醒一下,我們將做出前瞻性陳述,這些陳述是基於對未來表現的當前預期。我們的實際結果可能與預期有重大差異。此外,我們將在收益新聞稿中引用非 GAAP 結果,這些結果不包括特殊項目,並與 GAAP 結果進行協調。我們的 2024 年第四季業績新聞稿和包含我們更新的計畫記分卡的補充介紹均於今天早上發布,並可在我們投資者關係網站上查閱。
And now I'm pleased to turn the call over to you, Bob.
現在我很高興把電話轉給你,鮑伯。
Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, Julia. And before we jump into our results, I want to take a moment upfront to acknowledge the tragic accident near Reagan DCA airport last night. Our hearts go out to all those loved ones who are among the passengers and the crew. And we also extend our sympathies to our friends at American Airlines and their subsidiary, PSA airlines as they process this event themselves. Finally, I want to thank the first responders who worked tirelessly throughout the night. And while we are all competitors, we are one airline community, and we will do everything that we can to support our friends in American and at PSA.
謝謝你,茱莉亞。在我們公佈結果之前,我想先花一點時間來了解昨晚在雷根 DCA 機場附近發生的悲慘事故。我們向所有乘客和機組人員的親屬表示深切慰問。我們也向美國航空及其子公司PSA航空的朋友表示慰問,他們正在親自處理這起事件。最後,我要感謝那些整夜不知疲倦工作的急救人員。雖然我們都是競爭對手,但我們是一個航空界共同體,我們將竭盡全力支持美國航空和 PSA 的朋友。
Now turning to the business. 2024 was a foundational year for us. We further invested in the operation. We finalized our open labor contracts, and we laid out a comprehensive plan our Southwest even better plan. The plan, which is the most transformational in the history of the company, includes initiatives to boost our efficiency and lower costs, including the ability to fly redeye and to turn our aircraft faster. It also significantly improves our customer experience and expands what we offer customers by introducing things like partnerships and an all-new vacations product, all of which enhance the rapid awards in the co-brand ecosystem.
現在談談生意。 2024 年對我們來說是基礎的一年。我們對該營運進行了進一步的投資。我們最終確定了開放的勞動合同,並製定了全面的計劃,使西南航空的計劃更加完善。該計劃是該公司歷史上最具變革性的計劃,其中包括提高效率和降低成本的舉措,包括紅眼航班能力和更快的飛機轉彎速度。它還透過引入合作夥伴關係和全新的假期產品等,顯著改善了我們的客戶體驗,擴展了我們為客戶提供的服務,所有這些都增強了聯合品牌生態系統中的快速獎勵。
Ultimately, the plan provides a path to financial prosperity, which we believe will open exciting growth opportunities ahead. We are already seeing the benefits of the work we did last year and the plan is well underway. I am very pleased with the momentum we are carrying into 2025 as a result of that effort. Starting with the operation. We saw improvements in nearly every key metric, demonstrating success from our multiyear investments. In fact, we finished the year with an industry-leading completion factor.
最終,該計劃提供了一條通往金融繁榮的道路,我們相信這將為未來帶來令人興奮的成長機會。我們已經看到了去年所做工作的成果,計劃正在順利進行中。我對我們透過這些努力邁向 2025 年的勢頭感到非常高興。從操作開始。我們看到幾乎每個關鍵指標都有所改善,證明了我們多年投資的成功。事實上,我們以業界領先的完成率結束了這一年。
And just last week, we were recognized by the Wall Street Journal as 1 of the top 2 US carriers who have and i quote, separated themselves from the pack. We finished with a mere 1-point gap to first place, a gap that we will work very hard to overcome in 2025. We also finished the year with strong year-over-year unit revenue improvement. Unit revenues for the fourth quarter came in 8% higher than fourth quarter 2023, well above the improved expectations we provided in early December. Nominally, fourth quarter RASM was also 7% higher sequentially relative to third quarter RASM, and that is 5 points ahead of the historical third quarter to fourth quarter trend. The very hard work of our teams helped drive this acceleration as they executed tactical improvements.
就在上週,我們被《華爾街日報》評為美國兩大航空公司之一,我引用一段話,我們脫穎而出。我們最終僅以 1 分的差距領先第一名,我們將在 2025 年努力彌補這一差距。我們也以單位收入年增率強勁增長結束了這一年。第四季的單位收入比 2023 年第四季高出 8%,遠高於我們在 12 月初提供的改善預期。名義上,第四季的 RASM 較第三季的 RASM 較上季成長 7%,比歷史第三季至第四季的趨勢高出 5 個百分點。我們團隊的辛勤工作在實施戰術改進時幫助推動了這項加速。
In addition to improvement from tactical actions, we experienced benefits from a constructive industry backdrop driven by continued demand strength and capacity moderation. We're making great progress with our strategic initiative portfolio, our fleet monetization strategy and our capital allocation plan. The team will walk through the details to provide you with execution proof points and share how we are hitting key milestones. While I see improvement in our pace of execution, the focus on driving speed and agility will continue. And while we are focused on execution, we will keep a pulse on trends and be open-minded as we consider ways to continually improve the business.
除了戰術行動帶來的改善之外,我們還從持續的需求強勁和產能放緩所推動的建設性產業背景中獲益。我們的策略計劃組合、車隊貨幣化策略和資本配置計劃正在取得巨大進展。團隊將詳細介紹為您提供執行證明點並分享我們如何實現關鍵里程碑。雖然我看到我們的執行速度有所提高,但我們仍將繼續專注於提高速度和敏捷性。在我們專注於執行的同時,我們將密切關注趨勢,保持開放的心態,考慮如何持續改善業務。
Moving to our cost performance. We are experiencing above normal unit cost inflation, most notably in market-driven wage rates, airport costs and health care. We outlined a multiyear $500 million cost plan back at Investor Day to help mitigate cost inflation and become more efficient, and we will be relentless in pursuing cost takeout.
轉向我們的成本效益。我們正在經歷高於正常水平的單位成本通膨,最明顯的是市場驅動的工資率、機場成本和醫療保健。我們在投資者日概述了一項為期多年、金額達 5 億美元的成本計劃,旨在幫助緩解成本上漲並提高效率,我們將堅持不懈地追求降低成本。
While we haven't yet shared the cadence of how the $500 million comes online, the focus will be on achieving that rate as quickly as possible. We are committed to the efficiency work, including corporate overhead. The fact is corporate overhead has grown at a faster rate than the rest of the airline as we staffed up for initiatives. We must be the leader in terms of efficiency, and you'll see us being aggressive as you work to become a leaner and more agile organization.
雖然我們尚未透露這 5 億美元到位的具體速度,但我們的重點是盡快實現這一速度。我們致力於提高效率的工作,包括企業管理費用。事實是,隨著我們為這些計劃配備人員,公司管理費用的成長速度比航空公司的其他部分都要快。我們必須在效率方面處於領先地位,當您努力成為一個更精簡、更敏捷的組織時,您會看到我們積極進取。
Our imperative in 2025 is to deliver improved financial results and build further momentum to hit the milestones required to deliver on our 2026 and 2027 Investor Day targets. And we're committed to transparency and routine updates. We debuted a scorecard last quarter, and we updated it again this morning detailing our progress and it's available on our Investor Relations website. For the core business initiatives, we continue to deliver -- to expect to deliver or exceed the $1 billion 2025 EBIT contribution target, which excludes any benefit from fleet transactions.
我們在 2025 年的當務之急是取得更好的財務業績,並進一步積蓄力量,實現 2026 年和 2027 年投資者日目標所需的里程碑。我們致力於保持透明度和定期更新。我們在上個季度推出了記分卡,今天早上我們再次對其進行了更新,詳細介紹了我們的進展,您可以在我們的投資者關係網站上查閱。對於核心業務計劃,我們將繼續實現——期望實現或超過 2025 年 10 億美元的息稅前利潤貢獻目標,這不包括機隊交易帶來的任何收益。
Now moving to the fleet. There's a lot going on at Boeing. I was just there last week visiting with the leadership team and walking the factory floor. They have clearly been hard at work, and I was pleased with the progress that I saw. Everyone was engaged and focused. And while they still have much work to do, they appear to be on a good path and we are feeling more optimistic. Regardless, we think it's prudent to hedge our bets. We are now planning with a conservative 38 delivery assumption for 2025 to derisk the operation. We conservatively adjusted our plans back in March of 2024 and we've not had to republish the schedule since.
現在轉向艦隊。波音公司正在發生很多事情。我上週剛在那裡拜訪了領導團隊並參觀了工廠車間。他們顯然一直在努力工作,我對所看到的進步感到高興。每個人都全神貫注、全情投入。儘管他們仍有許多工作要做,但他們似乎已經走在正確的道路上,我們也感到更樂觀。無論如何,我們認為對沖我們的賭注是明智之舉。我們目前正保守地假設 2025 年有 38 架飛機交付,以降低營運風險。我們早在 2024 年 3 月就保守地調整了我們的計劃,從那時起我們就沒有重新發布過時間表。
So we are doing the same thing this year. That's very different from our contractual number, which for 2025 is now 136. We aren't going to get 136 aircraft, but we believe Boeing is on pace to exceed 38 this year and over the next couple of years that there will be an opportunity to do plenty of transactions as Boeing ramps up their production.
因此我們今年也做同樣的事情。這與我們合約上的數量有很大不同,2025 年我們的合約數量現在是 136。我們不會獲得 136 架飛機,但我們相信波音今年的訂單量將超過 38 架,並且在未來幾年內,隨著波音公司提高產量,我們將有機會進行大量交易。
Tammy is going to go into a lot more detail, but my point is that the opportunity is large. And despite the question of fleet timing, we still aim to deliver the $1.5 billion of targeted total 2025 incremental EBIT from our Investor Day initiative portfolio. We're seeing our tactical actions yield benefits faster than planned and expect to hit all key milestones for our strategic initiatives.
塔米將會進行更詳細的介紹,但我的觀點是機會很大。儘管有機隊時間安排的問題,我們仍致力於透過投資者日計畫組合實現 2025 年 15 億美元的目標增量息稅前利潤。我們看到我們的戰術行動比計劃更快地產生效益,並有望實現我們戰略計劃的所有關鍵里程碑。
As I wrap up, we are in a great position to capitalize on our momentum and continue making progress towards our goals. We have a comprehensive plan, a detailed set of initiatives and constructive industry backdrop, and we are executing with urgency and purpose. We will not let up for even a moment as we move forward and deliver the Southwest even better plan.
最後,我想說,我們處於非常有利的位置,可以利用我們的勢頭並繼續朝著我們的目標前進。我們有一個全面的計劃、一套詳細的舉措和建設性的行業背景,並且我們正在緊迫而有目的地執行。我們一刻也不會鬆懈,繼續前進,為西南航空提供更好的計劃。
I want to thank our employees for their dedication and commitment. And for the excellent operation, they've been running despite a way of winter weather. It's just truly exceptional.
我要感謝我們的員工的奉獻和投入。由於運行出色,儘管天氣寒冷,他們仍繼續運行。這確實非常特別。
And I will now turn it over to Andrew to cover the operations and tactical [industry] performance in more detail. Andrew?
現在我將把話題交給安德魯,讓他更詳細地介紹營運和戰術(產業)表現。安德魯?
Andrew Watterson - Chief Operating Officer
Andrew Watterson - Chief Operating Officer
Thank you, Bob. I want to start by thanking our frontline employees for all their hard work and for helping Southwest have an outstanding year operationally. As Bob mentioned, last week, we were recognized in the Wall Street Journal's 2024 Annual Airline Rankings, moving up to a very close second place this year, taking into consideration seven key metrics. Among the nine major US airlines, we were the leader and completion factor with less than 1% of flights canceled during the year. We also had the lowest rate of Tarmac delays and the fewest DOT customer submissions. And we didn't come in below fourth in any category, which is a testament to both our people and investments in the operation.
謝謝你,鮑伯。首先,我要感謝我們的第一線員工的辛勤工作,幫助西南航空度過了出色的一年。正如鮑伯所提到的,上週,我們在《華爾街日報》 2024 年度航空公司排名中獲得認可,今年根據七個關鍵指標升至第二名。在美國九大航空公司中,我們處於領先地位,航班取消率不到 1%。我們的停機坪延誤率和 DOT 客戶提交問題也最少。我們在任何一個類別中的排名都沒有低於第四名,這證明了我們的員工和對營運的投資。
Turning to our revenue performance. We are pleased with how we finished 2024. Our fourth quarter RASM was up 8% year-over-year, which exceeded our prior guidance range of up 5.5% to 7%. In fact, we saw a nice trend in year-over-year RASM growth as we closed out 2024 as we realized tailwinds, both from our internal initiatives and capacity adjustments as well as the benefits of a healthy industry backdrop.
談到我們的收入表現。我們對 2024 年的成績感到滿意。我們第四季的 RASM 年成長 8%,超過了我們之前預期的 5.5% 至 7% 的成長範圍。事實上,在 2024 年結束時,我們看到了 RASM 年成長的良好趨勢,因為我們實現了順風,既來自我們的內部舉措和產能調整,也來自健康的行業背景帶來的好處。
While there was noteworthy pressure from supply-demand imbalance in the first half of 2024, we saw a pivot to capacity moderation across the industry with continued healthy demand in the latter part of the year. And as you know, we took deliberate steps to recalibrate and better optimize our revenue management systems and processes. The benefit of that work is materializing faster than expected.
儘管 2024 年上半年供需失衡的壓力值得注意,但我們看到整個產業的產能已轉向緩和,下半年需求持續保持健康。如您所知,我們採取了慎重措施來重新調整和優化我們的收入管理系統和流程。這項工作的效益比預想的更快顯現。
As we shared at Investor Day, the revenue management initiative is comprehensive and is supported by a range of capabilities and advancement activities. For example, we reorganized the revenue management team to manage demand for customer itineraries rather than managing demand for individual flights. This change aligns our teams more closely to our system.
正如我們在投資者日所分享的那樣,收入管理計劃是全面的,並得到一系列能力和進步活動的支持。例如,我們重組了收入管理團隊,以管理客戶行程需求,而不是管理單一航班的需求。這一變化使我們的團隊與我們的系統更加緊密地結合。
On the tool side, we invested in improving our ability to predict demand patterns, both by booking window and by flight. We've also launched new proprietary dashboard to help our team to better optimize the revenue performance of our highest demand seats. We are seeing yield benefits from our arm advancement efforts across the board.
在工具方面,我們投入了大量資金來提高預測需求模式的能力,包括透過預訂窗口和航班。我們還推出了新的專有儀表板,以幫助我們的團隊更好地優化需求量最大的席位的收入表現。我們正在全面看到手臂進步所帶來的收益。
Those flights with greater than [90%] load factor are seeing the strongest close performance as a result of better management of the booking curve. And our flights with less than [90%] load factor are also seeing sequential improvements as we better optimize fares further out in the booking curve. As we look into 2025, we will keep the same intensity and focus on delivering value from our tactical initiatives while also remaining committed to closely managing capacity.
由於預訂曲線管理得更好,載客率超過 [90%] 的航班的成交表現最為強勁。隨著我們在預訂曲線上更好地優化票價,我們的載客率低於 [90%] 的航班也實現了連續改善。展望 2025 年,我們將保持同樣的力度,專注於透過我們的戰術舉措實現價值,同時繼續致力於密切管理產能。
We've made a lot of progress improving yield in the fourth quarter, and our focus now is on maintaining yield performance as we work to close the load factor gap. We expect current demand strength to continue in 2025, and our first quarter RASM is projected to be up in the range of 5% to 7% year-over-year. As the year progresses, we expect positive year-over-year RASM growth driven by tactical initiatives.
我們在第四季度提高收益率方面取得了很大進展,目前我們的重點是保持收益率表現,同時努力縮小載客率差距。我們預計目前的需求強勁態勢將持續到 2025 年,預計第一季 RASM 將年增 5% 至 7%。隨著時間的推移,我們預計在戰術舉措的推動下,RASM 將實現同比增長。
In the second quarter, we expect to see benefits from the next phase of our network realignment. This includes reductions to Atlanta and Oakland or previously discussed, with that capacity being redeployed to point of strength like Nashville and Sacramento.
在第二季度,我們預計將看到網路調整下一階段的效益。其中包括減少先前討論過的亞特蘭大和奧克蘭的航班數量,並將運力重新部署到納許維爾和薩克拉門託等實力雄厚的樞紐地區。
We also expect to see record contributions from partnerships, getaways and loyalty initiatives, most notably in the fourth quarter. So while we are pleased with our progress, we are far from satisfied. We have a plan and will be urgent and deliberate in our execution. As I close, I want to thank our people for running a great operation and delivering unparalleled Southwest hospitality.
我們也預期合作夥伴關係、度假和忠誠度計畫將帶來創紀錄的貢獻,尤其是在第四季。因此,雖然我們對我們的進展感到高興,但我們並不滿足。我們有一個計劃,並將緊急、謹慎地執行。最後,我要感謝我們的員工出色地開展業務並提供無與倫比的西南航空服務。
And with that, I will turn it over to Ryan to go over the progress of our strategic initiatives.
接下來,我將把會議交給瑞安 (Ryan),由他來介紹我們的策略舉措的進展。
Ryan Green - Executive Vice President, Chief Transformation Officer
Ryan Green - Executive Vice President, Chief Transformation Officer
Thanks, Andrew. As Bob mentioned, I'm going to provide you with updates on our strategic initiatives as we continue to execute against our Southwest even better plan. Earlier this month, we signed our first commercial agreement with Iceland Air, making them our first partner carrier. And starting February 13, we will begin connecting customers and bags crossing the Atlantic on Iceland Air into the Southwest network at our Baltimore station. This is an important milestone in our plan to expand how and where our customers can travel.
謝謝,安德魯。正如鮑伯所提到的,我將繼續執行西南航空更好的計劃,向您提供有關我們的策略舉措的最新資訊。本月初,我們與冰島航空簽署了第一份商業協議,使其成為我們第一家合作航空公司。從 2 月 13 日起,我們將開始將乘坐冰島航空跨越大西洋的乘客和行李從巴爾的摩機場轉入西南航空的網路。這是我們擴大顧客出遊方式和旅遊地點計畫中的重要里程碑。
We will continue to evolve this partnership and plan to also connect Iceland Air into our network in Denver and Nashville later this year, which provides even more connection opportunities through shared gateways. Also, earlier this month, we received our IOS certification for successfully completing the IATA Operational Safety audit. This serves as the industry benchmark in safety auditing, and we are proud of this achievement that reaffirms our commitment to the highest safety standards.
我們將繼續發展這項合作關係,並計劃在今年稍後將冰島航空納入我們在丹佛和納許維爾的網絡,透過共享網關提供更多的連接機會。此外,本月初,我們因成功完成國際航空運輸協會運作安全審計而獲得了 IOS 認證。這是安全審計的行業基準,我們為這項成就感到自豪,這再次證明了我們對最高安全標準的承諾。
It's also an important milestone in our transformation journey as it sets the stage for future growth through additional airline partnerships. We continue to pursue partnership agreements with other global carriers and still plan to announce at least one additional partner carrier later this year.
這也是我們轉型歷程中的一個重要里程碑,因為它為未來透過與其他航空公司合作實現成長奠定了基礎。我們將繼續與其他全球營運商達成合作協議,並計劃在今年稍後宣布至少一家額外的合作營運商。
Our getaways by Southwest product is also expected to launch later this year, and we are excited to announce today that we will add MGM Resorts International to our list of partners in Las Vegas. This represents a large milestone from one of our focused markets for getaways by Southwest. And along with our existing partners there, this will give us access to a substantial portion of the hotel inventory in Las Vegas with more partners to come.
我們的西南航空度假產品預計也將於今年稍後推出,我們今天很高興地宣布,我們將把米高梅國際酒店集團添加到我們在拉斯維加斯的合作夥伴名單中。這是我們西南航空度假重點市場之一的一個重要里程碑。透過與現有的合作夥伴合作,我們將能夠獲得拉斯維加斯大量酒店庫存,並且未來將有更多合作夥伴。
We continue to make progress and move forward on our assigned and premium seating product and continue to expect to meet the financial targets and timelines we communicated at Investor Day to begin selling seat assignments in the second half of this year and operate flights was signed in premium seating in the first half of next year. As we finalize our cabin layout and work towards FAA certification, we plan to begin retrofitting aircraft midyear, starting with our larger [dash] 800 aircraft with the smaller 700s to follow later in the year.
我們將繼續在指定和高級座位產品方面取得進展和前進,並繼續期望實現我們在投資者日傳達的財務目標和時間表,即在今年下半年開始銷售座位指定,並於明年上半年運營簽署的高級座位航班。在我們最終確定客艙佈局並努力獲得 FAA 認證的同時,我們計劃於年中開始改裝飛機,首先從較大的 [dash] 800 飛機開始,隨後將在今年晚些時候改裝較小的 700 飛機。
By beginning retrofits midyear, it allows us to meet our planned operate date. It minimizes the amount of time we have a mixed fleet, and it keeps the 700 aircraft flying with their current seat count for more of this year. We believe our tech ops facilities, employees and vendors are well equipped to update our entire fleet within our timeline. Technology development is also going well. Our technology employees and vendors are hard at work, coding the necessary technological changes and will soon begin a rigorous testing phase before we begin selling assigned seats.
透過在年中開始改造,我們能夠實現計劃的營運日期。它最大限度地減少了我們擁有混合機隊的時間,並使 700 架飛機在今年的更多時間內保持當前的座位數。我們相信,我們的技術營運設施、員工和供應商都具備在規定時間內更新整個車隊的能力。技術發展也進展順利。我們的技術人員和供應商正在努力工作,編寫必要的技術變更程式碼,並將很快開始嚴格的測試階段,然後我們才能開始銷售指定席位。
Another key milestone reached just this month is our amended co-brand agreement with Chase. As we've discussed before, we needed to update our agreement to provide our card members with new benefits related to our assigned and premium seating products. We'll have more information to share on the details of those benefits soon, but we're excited to get these new card products into the market as we're confident customers will value these benefits, and they will drive co-brand card acquisitions in the future. This agreement supports the multiyear financial targets we announced at Investor Day.
本月實現的另一個重要里程碑是我們與大通修改了聯合品牌協議。正如我們之前討論過的,我們需要更新我們的協議,為我們的持卡會員提供與我們的指定和高級座位產品相關的新福利。我們很快就會分享有關這些好處的更多信息,但我們很高興將這些新卡產品推向市場,因為我們相信客戶會重視這些好處,並且它們將在未來推動聯名卡的收購。該協議支持我們在投資者日宣布的多年財務目標。
Within the operation, we continue to focus on efficiency and modernization by reducing the time it takes to turn an aircraft and increasing our aircraft productivity. We've made meaningful progress toward our goal of removing paper-based processes from the day-to-day operation and have digitized crew paperwork. Our November 2024 schedule was the first that implemented a 5-minute reduction in turn times in 12 of our stations. And I'm happy to report that it's working as planned with no operational impact.
在運作過程中,我們繼續注重效率和現代化,減少飛機轉彎所需的時間並提高飛機的生產率。我們在實現日常營運中消除紙本流程、實現機組人員文書工作數位化的目標方面取得了重大進展。我們的 2024 年 11 月時刻表首次在 12 個車站實施了將轉彎時間縮短 5 分鐘的措施。我很高興地報告,一切進展順利,沒有對營運產生影響。
Later this quarter, we plan to introduce a digital communication tool that will allow pilots, flight attendants, and operations agents to chat live with each other while they're working to turn the aircraft between flights further enhancing our efficiency. We continue to expect our turn time initiative to create the equivalent of roughly 16 free aircraft by the end of November this year. While we are already a leader in turn time, we are confident this will further our competitive advantage in the day-to-day operation.
本季度晚些時候,我們計劃推出數位通訊工具,讓飛行員、空服員和營運代理商在航班間調轉飛機時可以進行即時聊天,從而進一步提高我們的效率。我們繼續預計,到今年 11 月底,我們的周轉時間計畫將創造相當於約 16 架免費飛機的價值。雖然我們目前已處於領先地位,但我們相信這將進一步增強我們在日常營運中的競爭優勢。
In addition to reducing turn time, we will also launch redeye flying in five key markets next month. with the first flights arriving on Valentine's Day. This will ramp up to a total of 33 redeye markets in the June 2025 based schedule, including Hawaii routes. And we're pleased with how redeye flights are booking to date with nearly 75% of passengers on a connecting itinerary either before or after the redeye flight.
除了縮短轉彎時間外,我們還將於下個月在五個主要市場推出紅眼航班。首班航班將於情人節當天抵達。根據 2025 年 6 月的航班時刻表,包括夏威夷航線在內,紅眼航班市場將增加至總共 33 個。我們對迄今為止紅眼航班的預訂情況感到滿意,近 75% 的乘客在紅眼航班之前或之後選擇了轉機行程。
Redeye flights capitalize on peak seasonality and maximize network connectivity while generating incremental load factor. And remember that our turn and redeye initiatives aid our modest capacity growth plans for this year of up 1% to 2% year-over-year.
紅眼航班充分利用季節性高峰期並最大程度地提高網路連接,同時產生增量載客率。請記住,我們的轉彎和紅眼航班計劃將幫助我們實現今年適度的運力增長計劃,即同比增長 1% 至 2%。
And finally, I am pleased to share that our service modernization efforts to drive operational efficiencies and improved experience for employees and customers are also paying off. As a result of the digital capabilities we provided our customers to enable them to self-serve, we've seen call volumes decrease even further than what was assumed in our plans. These digital enhancements have enabled a significant increase in efficiency within our call center.
最後,我很高興地告訴大家,我們為提高營運效率和改善員工和客戶體驗所做的服務現代化努力也取得了成效。由於我們為客戶提供了數位化功能以使他們能夠自助服務,我們發現呼叫量下降的幅度甚至比我們計劃的還要大。這些數位化增強顯著提高了我們呼叫中心的效率。
As you can see, we are working hard and making continued progress on our transformational plan. We are committed to continued execution and delivering on our Southwest even better plan. And I want to thank the hard work of our incredible people who are making this happen.
正如您所看到的,我們正在努力推進我們的轉型計劃並不斷取得進展。我們致力於繼續執行並實現西南航空的更好計劃。我還要感謝我們那些優秀的員工的辛勤工作,是他們讓這一切成為現實。
And with that, I'll turn it over to Tammy.
現在我將把話題交給 Tammy。
Tammy Romo - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Tammy Romo - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Thank you, Ryan, and hello, everyone. I am pleased by the level of execution Ryan just covered and the realization of early benefits from our Southwest, Even Better plan. As we laid out, our plan provides a road map to transform Southwest and importantly, to restore our financial prosperity and drive sustainable shareholder value.
謝謝你,Ryan,大家好。我對瑞安剛才提到的執行水準以及西南航空「更好」計畫所實現的早期收益感到滿意。正如我們所闡述的,我們的計劃提供了改造西南航空的路線圖,更重要的是,恢復我們的財務繁榮並推動可持續的股東價值。
While we have more our work ahead, to hit our multiyear financial targets, our fourth quarter performance exceeded expectations, and we ended the year with improved year-over-year margins in the fourth quarter. Much of this improvement has already been covered, so I'll pick up with color on our cost performance, and we'll close with a few comments on the balance sheet and an update on capital allocation, including more insights on our fleet monetization strategy.
儘管我們還有很多工作要做,才能實現我們多年的財務目標,但我們第四季度的業績超出了預期,並且我們在第四季度以同比增長的利潤率結束了這一財年。這些改進的大部分內容已經介紹過了,因此我將重點介紹我們的成本績效,最後我們將對資產負債表和資本配置的最新情況發表一些評論,包括對我們的車隊貨幣化策略的更多見解。
Our fourth quarter 2024 CASM-X increased 11.1% year-over-year and full year 2024 CASM-X increased 7.8% year-over-year, both inclusive of a $92 million gain from a sale-leaseback transaction in fourth quarter 2024. The year-over-year increase was primarily the result of elevated operating expenses associated with inflationary pressures including contractual market-driven wage rate increases.
我們的 2024 年第四季 CASM-X 年成長 11.1%,2024 年全年 CASM-X 年成長 7.8%,其中包括 2024 年第四季售後回租交易獲得的 9,200 萬美元收益。年比成長主要是由於通膨壓力(包括合約驅動的市場工資率成長)導致的營運費用增加。
And fourth quarter specifically, the decline in capacity growth resulted in additional unit cost pressure. We are urgently working towards implementing the $500 million cost initiative announced at Investor Day in September with an intense focus on exceeding that number and accelerating as much of the benefit into this year as possible. Our efforts are focused on mitigating cost inflation by minimizing hiring, optimizing scheduling efficiency, capitalizing on supply chain opportunities, and aggressively improving corporate overhead.
具體來說,第四季度,產能成長的下降導致單位成本面臨額外的壓力。我們正在緊急努力實施 9 月投資者日宣布的 5 億美元成本計劃,重點是超越這一數字,並儘可能加快在今年內實現盡可能多的收益。我們的努力重點是透過減少招募、優化調度效率、利用供應鏈機會和積極改善企業管理費用來緩解成本通膨。
Looking forward, we currently expect this quarter's CASM-X to increase in the range of 7% to 9% year-over-year driven primarily by the continuation of general inflationary pressures from wage and work rule headwinds from labor contracts ratified last year and also from continued capacity moderation efforts.
展望未來,我們目前預計本季的 CASM-X 將年增 7% 至 9%,這主要歸因於去年批准的勞動合約帶來的工資和工作規則阻力以及持續的產能調節努力帶來的持續總體通膨壓力。
As 2025 progresses, our year-over-year unit cost inflation is expected to ease as we lap labor contract anniversaries, deploy initiative-driven capacity growth, and aggressively pursue benefits from our cost initiatives. Our cabin retrofit efforts associated with our premium seating initiatives are expected to result in approximately $150 million in incremental costs primarily in the second half of the year. But these will be onetime and will not carry forward into 2026.
隨著 2025 年的到來,隨著我們度過勞動合約週年紀念日、部署計劃驅動的產能增長並積極追求成本計劃帶來的好處,我們的同比單位成本通膨預計將有所緩解。與我們的高級座位計畫相關的客艙改裝工作預計將主要在今年下半年產生約 1.5 億美元的增量成本。但這些都是一次性的,不會延續到 2026 年。
Taking all these variables into account excluding potential gains from any future sale fleet sales, sale leaseback transactions, we expect to exit 2025 with fourth quarter year-over-year CASM-X growth in the low single digits.
考慮到所有這些變量,不包括未來銷售車隊銷售、售後回租交易帶來的潛在收益,我們預計到 2025 年第四季 CASM-X 年比成長將達到個位數。
Moving to fleet. As we highlighted in third quarter earnings, we saw the prudent planning of our conservative fleet delivery expectations pay off. As a reminder, we entered 2024 expecting to receive 79 Boeing aircraft deliveries. In March, Boeing informed us, we would receive 46. After going through a detailed process, we conservatively adjusted our plan to 20 deliveries to reduce the risk of further operational impact. We closed out 2024 with a total of 22 deliveries essentially in line with our internal estimation.
移至艦隊。正如我們在第三季收益中所強調的那樣,我們看到我們對保守的機隊交付預期的審慎規劃獲得了回報。提醒一下,我們預計 2024 年將收到 79 架波音飛機。3 月份,波音公司通知我們,我們將收到 46 架。經過詳細的流程後,我們保守地將計畫調整為 20 次交付,以降低進一步影響營運的風險。我們在 2024 年共完成了 22 筆交付,基本上符合我們的內部估計。
Now, in terms of how we are thinking about managing our fleet this year, we have a modest capacity plan of 1% to 2% year-over-year growth and that growth is fully funded by our efficiency initiatives. This sets us up to reduce our total aircraft count by year-end. However, we still want as many deliveries as possible to modernize our fleet and reach our goal of an all [-7, - 8,] fleet in 2031.
現在,就我們今年如何管理機隊而言,我們有一個適度的運力計劃,即同比增長 1% 到 2%,而這一增長完全由我們的效率舉措提供資金。這意味著我們將在年底前減少飛機總數。然而,我們仍然希望盡可能多地交付飛機,以實現我們機隊的現代化,並在 2031 年實現全機隊 [-7, -8,] 架飛機的目標。
To that end, we are planning to retire 51 aircraft this year. And in addition, we are contemplating the sale of an additional [10 -800NG]. To support this, we need 38 deliveries from Boeing. However, as Bob shared, all incremental deliveries beyond 38 offer an opportunity to accelerate the execution of our fleet monetization strategy. I will remind you that we view our fleet monetization strategy as incremental to the base business improvement. The strategy is highly idiosyncratic opportunity to monetize our fleet through our portfolio of sales and sale leasebacks to fund fleet modernization and support shareholder return.
為此,我們計劃今年退役51架飛機。此外,我們正在考慮出售額外的[10-800NG]。為了支持這個目標,我們需要波音公司交付 38 架飛機。然而,正如鮑伯所說,超過 38 架飛機的所有增量交付都為加速執行我們的機隊貨幣化策略提供了機會。我要提醒你的是,我們將車隊貨幣化策略視為基礎業務改善的增量。該策略是一個非常獨特的機會,透過我們的銷售和售後回租組合將我們的船隊貨幣化,以資助船隊現代化並支持股東回報。
The fleet opportunity is uniquely available to Southwest as a result of the following factors: one, the current industry aircraft supply constraints, which are driven by OEM challenges creating strong demand in the secondary market; two, the embedded value in our -8 from Boeing compensation and favorable pricing, which creates a meaningful value gap relative to the strong secondary market; and three, access to aircraft provided by our contractual order book, which is beyond the needs of our modest capacity plan.
由於以下因素,西南航空擁有獨一無二的機隊機會:第一,當前行業飛機供應受限,這是由 OEM 挑戰導致的,從而產生了二級市場的強勁需求;二是波音公司薪資與優惠定價帶來的-8%的內含價值,相對於強勁的二級市場產生了顯著的價值差距;第三,我們可以透過合約訂單來使用飛機,這超出了我們適度的運力計畫的需求。
As a reminder, the 1% to 2% growth over the next three years does not require additional aircraft as it is funded by efficiency initiatives. Now, of course, the -800 and -8 aircraft play different roles in our fleet strategy initiative. I'll start with the -800. These are mid-life aircraft that currently have highly favorable market valuation. The current market setup and our order book economics combined to create an opportunity to replace these midlife -800s with new -8.
提醒一下,未來三年 1% 到 2% 的成長不需要額外的飛機,因為它是由效率計畫資助的。當然,現在 -800 和 -8 飛機在我們的機隊戰略計劃中扮演著不同的角色。我將從 -800 開始。這些都是中年飛機,目前市場估值非常優惠。目前的市場狀況和我們的訂單經濟狀況結合起來,創造了用新的 -8 取代這些中年 -800 的機會。
This creates value for Southwest as we plan to realize the lower maintenance and fuel costs, enhance customer experience, and better reliability associated with -8 aircraft, all with reduced capital spending. With the -8 aircraft, the opportunity to realize value comes from the ability to sell excess aircraft in our order book and pull forward the significant embedded value that comes from favorable pricing and the current market value.
這為西南航空創造了價值,因為我們計劃透過減少資本支出來實現降低維護和燃料成本、增強客戶體驗以及提高與 -8 飛機相關的可靠性。對於 -8 飛機來說,實現價值的機會來自於出售我們訂單中過剩飛機的能力,以及拉動由優惠定價和當前市場價值帶來的巨大內含價值。
However, to be able to fully execute the strategy, we must receive sufficient deliveries from Boeing. While we are feeling very good about where Boeing is headed, we will want to gain confidence in their production capabilities before we move forward with sales. So you can understand that our strong preference is to execute sales, the -800 sales facilitate capital-efficient fleet modernization and for the , the opportunity is to harvest the significant embedded value. We will, however, be opportunistic with sale-leasebacks and pursue them as a mechanism for an orderly exit of the -800s from our fleet.
然而,為了能夠全面實施該策略,我們必須從波音公司獲得足夠的交付。雖然我們對波音的發展方向非常看好,但我們希望在推進銷售之前對他們的生產能力有信心。因此,您可以理解,我們強烈傾向於執行銷售,-800 的銷售促進了資本高效的車隊現代化,對於而言,機會是收穫重大的內含價值。然而,我們將抓住售後回租的機會,並將其作為有序退出我們機隊 -800 飛機的機制。
Now that we have completed our first transaction, you have a better idea of the economics of the -800 sale leaseback. Sale leaseback allow us to lock in the certainty of today's strong secondary pricing, while simultaneously bridging our operations until we are confident that we will receive our contractual replacement -7s and -8 from Boeing.
現在我們已經完成了第一筆交易,您對 -800 售後回租的經濟性有了更好的了解。售後回租使我們能夠鎖定當今強勁的二級定價的確定性,同時銜接我們的運營,直到我們有信心從波音公司收到合約替換的 -7 和 -8。
Essentially, these sale leasebacks are functioning as forward sales. And again, we will pursue them opportunistically only where it makes financial sense while also taking into account overall fleet modernization goals, financing needs, and capital allocation considerations.
本質上,這些售後回租發揮遠期銷售的作用。再次強調,我們只會在具有財務意義的情況下才會抓住機會,同時也會考慮整體機隊現代化目標、融資需求和資本配置考量。
Moving to CapEx. Full year 2024 gross capital expenditures were $2.1 billion, in line with previous guidance, including proceeds of $871 million from the sale leaseback transaction in fourth quarter 2024, full year 2024 net capital expenditures were $1.2 billion. We currently expect 2025 gross capital spending to be in the range of $2.5 billion to $3 billion. This includes approximately $1.2 billion in aircraft capital spending and $1.6 billion in non-aircraft capital spending. And again, there is an opportunity to lower net capital spending from our fleet monetization strategy.
轉向資本支出。2024 年全年總資本支出為 21 億美元,與先前的指引一致,其中包括 2024 年第四季售後回租交易所得的 8.71 億美元,2024 年全年淨資本支出為 12 億美元。我們目前預計 2025 年的總資本支出將在 25 億至 30 億美元之間。其中包括約12億美元的飛機資本支出和16億美元的非飛機資本支出。而且,我們的車隊貨幣化策略有機會降低淨資本支出。
As we look to the future, we remain committed to maintaining a strong balance sheet and are proud to have an investment-grade rating by all three rating agencies. We also remain committed to providing significant returns to our shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. In 2024, we returned $680 million, consisting of $430 million in dividends and $250 million of share repurchases to our shareholders.
展望未來,我們依然致力於維持強勁的資產負債表,並為獲得三大評級機構的投資等級而感到自豪。我們也將繼續致力於透過股利和股票回購為股東提供豐厚的回報。2024 年,我們向股東返還了 6.8 億美元,其中包括 4.3 億美元的股利和 2.5 億美元的股票回購。
The $250 million ASR was the first repurchase program of the $2.5 billion share repurchase authorization announced at our September Investor Day. The company continues to plan for the launch of an additional $750 million ASR program later this quarter. Assuming performance trends continue as expected, we plan to complete repurchases of the remaining $1.5 billion available under our share repurchase authorization in 2025.
2.5 億美元的 ASR 是我們在 9 月投資者日宣布的 25 億美元股票回購授權中的第一個回購計畫。該公司繼續計劃在本季稍後啟動額外的 7.5 億美元的 ASR 計劃。假設業績趨勢繼續按照預期發展,我們計劃在 2025 年完成根據股票回購授權剩餘的 15 億美元回購。
Before I hand it back to Bob, I want to send out LUV, love to my Southwest family and to all of you in the investment community for your support in comradery over the past 33-plus years.
在我將權力交還給鮑伯之前,我想向西南航空大家庭以及投資界的所有人表達我的愛意,感謝你們過去 33 多年來的支持。
With that, I will turn it back to Bob.
說完這些,我就把話題轉回給鮑伯。
Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, Tammy. As we wrap up, I want to emphasize a few points. First, the team is intensely focused on meeting and exceeding our targeted performance improvement trajectory. Second, our core business initiatives are performing ahead of expectations outlined only four months ago, and we expect to deliver or exceed the $1 billion 2025 EBIT contribution target. This excludes the benefit from any fleet transactions. Nonetheless, our goal remains to deliver $1.5 billion of targeted total 2025 incremental EBIT.
謝謝你,塔米。最後,我想強調幾點。首先,團隊高度重視實現並超越我們的目標績效改善軌跡。其次,我們的核心業務計劃的表現超出了四個月前提出的預期,我們預計將實現或超過 2025 年 10 億美元的息稅前利潤貢獻目標。這不包括任何船隊交易帶來的利益。儘管如此,我們的目標仍然是實現 2025 年 15 億美元的增量息稅前利潤。
Third, we are taking a hard look at our cost structure. Our cost performance including in the first quarter is not where we want it to be. We are taking immediate actions to accelerate as much of the $500 million of targeted cost savings into 2025 as possible and we will report on our progress as we go.
第三,我們正在認真審視我們的成本結構。我們的成本表現(包括第一季)並沒有達到我們想要的水平。我們正在立即採取行動,盡可能加快 2025 年 5 億美元的成本節約目標,並將報告進度。
Finally, we have tremendous confidence in the plan and are excited about the future of Southwest. We plan to repurchase $2.25 billion of stock this year or approximately 12% and of our market cap at current prices. We expect this to be very accretive for our investors as we work to deliver our Southwest even better plan, including our North Star Gold to achieve after-tax ROIC of at least [15%] in 2027. The pace of those share repurchases do not depend on the progress of our fleet monetization strategy.
最後,我們對該計劃充滿信心,並對西南航空的未來感到興奮。我們計劃今年回購價值 22.5 億美元的股票,以當前價格計算,約占我們市值的 12%。我們預計,這將為我們的投資者帶來巨大的增值,因為我們正在努力實現西南航空更好的計劃,包括我們的北極星黃金計劃在 2027 年實現至少 [15%] 的稅後投資回報率。股票回購的速度並不取決於我們的船隊貨幣化策略的進展。
Now before I turn it to Q&A, I want to say a few words about Tammy. As you all know, Tammy will be retiring as our CFO at the end of this quarter after 33-years with the company. She has served in many roles and has the distinction of serving as our first Head of Investor Relations. She's been our Chief Financial Officer since 2012. Over the years, she's led us through times of great prosperity that provided for lucrative shareholder returns.
現在,在進入問答環節之前,我想先談談 Tammy。眾所周知,Tammy 將在本季末從公司財務長一職上退休,此前他已在公司工作了 33 年。她曾擔任過許多職務,並被授予我們的首位投資者關係主管的榮譽。自 2012 年起,她一直擔任我們的財務長。多年來,她帶領我們度過了繁榮時期,為股東帶來了豐厚的回報。
She's an innovative leader, who is instrumental in the success of countless endeavors. She leaves Southwest with a fortress balance sheet, investment grade rated by all three credit agencies. And Tammy is a humble generous and inspirational leader. She's a tireless mentor and as such, leaves a strong legacy and you won't find a nicer, kinder, and tougher person anywhere. So I'd like to thank Tammy for her deep commitment to our employees, the investment community, and our shareholders. And Tammy, congrats on all you have accomplished, thank you for your leadership and more importantly, your friendship. You will be missed.
她是一位創新領導者,為無數事業的成功做出了重要貢獻。當她離開時,西南航空的資產負債表十分穩健,三大信用機構都將該公司的評級定為投資級。塔米 (Tammy) 是一位謙遜、慷慨且鼓舞人心的領導者。她是一位不知疲倦的導師,留下了寶貴的遺產,你在任何地方都找不到比她更友善、更善良、更堅強的人。因此,我要感謝 Tammy 對我們的員工、投資界和股東的深切承諾。塔米,恭喜你所取得的所有成就,感謝你的領導,更重要的是,感謝你的友誼。我們將會想念你。
And on that note, I will pass it back to Julia to start our Q&A.
關於這一點,我將把它交還給 Julia 開始我們的問答環節。
Julia Landrum - VP of Investor Relations
Julia Landrum - VP of Investor Relations
Thank you, Bob, and congratulations Tammy. We LUV you too. This completes our prepared remarks. We will now open the line for analyst questions. (Event Instructions)
謝謝你,鮑勃,恭喜塔米。我們也愛你。我們的準備好的演講到此結束。我們現在將開通分析師提問專線。(活動須知)
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(操作員指令)
Savi Syth, Raymond James.
薩維·斯斯、雷蒙德·詹姆斯。
Savanthi Syth - Analyst
Savanthi Syth - Analyst
Tammy, congratulations on the pending retirement. And one of your competitors once told me or counterpart, one of your competitor firms once told me that Southwest balance sheet as being something on another planet in terms of relative position. And I know that doesn't happen accidentally. So congrats.
塔米,恭喜你即將退休。你們的一個競爭對手曾經告訴我,或者說,你們的一個競爭公司曾經告訴我,西南航空的資產負債表在相對位置上簡直是另一個星球上的。我知道這不是偶然發生的。恭喜你。
If I might, for my first question and maybe to Tammy, unit cost here in the first quarter is moderating by about 3 points or maybe closer to 5, if you consider that you don't have the sale leaseback gain in the quarter. And in your opening remarks, you talked about like a 1.5 point headwind in the second half from the cabin retrofits. So given all the moving parts, I was hoping you could talk a little bit about the cadence of unit cost growth for the rest of the year. And just to clarify that low single-digit exit rate, what type of capacity growth that exit rate is on?
如果可以的話,對於我的第一個問題,也許是對 Tammy 的,如果考慮到本季度沒有售後回租收益,那麼第一季的單位成本將下降約 3 個百分點,或可能接近 5 個百分點。在您的開場白中,您談到了下半年由於客艙改裝而帶來的 1.5 個百分點的逆風。因此,考慮到所有活動部件,我希望您能談談今年剩餘時間單位成本增長的節奏。只是為了澄清低個位數的退出率,退出率是基於哪種類型的產能成長?
Tammy Romo - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Tammy Romo - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah. No, thank you. First of all, thank you for your kind words, Savi, and it's really been a pleasure, and you are wonderful. So thank you. I -- just to give you a little bit of color on just the bridge for the 5 to 7 points from our midpoint of our guidance in the first quarter to the low single-digit exit rate in the fourth quarter. It's really coming from a couple of different buckets. We have, call it, 3 to 4 points from [turn] and redeye initiatives. So a big chunk of that is coming from just capacity from the capacity. So hopefully, that helps answer your question there. It's probably 3 points if I had to peg that.
是的。不,謝謝。首先,感謝您友好的言辭,薩維,我真的很高興,您真的很棒。所以謝謝你。我——只是想給你一點關於從第一季度指導中點到第四季度低個位數退出率的 5 到 7 點的橋樑的信息。它實際上來自幾個不同的桶子。我們從[轉彎]和紅眼舉措中獲得了 3 到 4 分。因此,其中很大一部分來自於產能。希望這能幫助回答您的問題。如果一定要定這個分的話,那可能是 3 分。
And another point just from absorbing the overstaffing that we've discussed. In previous calls. And then there's another 2 to 3 points that is split fairly evenly between the lapping impacts from labor contracts that were ratified last year and the just overall benefits from the cost plan initiative kicking in. So as Bob and I both talked about in our remarks, we're very focused on our cost reduction efforts, and those will, of course, ramp up as we go through the year.
另一點是關於吸收我們討論過的人員過剩問題。在之前的通話中。然後還有另外 2 到 3 點,這些點相當均勻地分佈在去年批准的勞動合約帶來的重疊影響和成本計劃舉措實施帶來的整體效益之間。因此,正如鮑勃和我在我們的演講中談到的那樣,我們非常注重降低成本的努力,而這些努力當然會隨著一年的推移而增加。
So we're feeling good as we sit here today about the exit rate. And while some of that is coming from capacity, it's also coming from just an incredible amount of work from the team.
因此,今天我們坐在這裡,對退出率感到很滿意。雖然其中一部分來自於能力,但也來自於團隊的大量工作。
Savanthi Syth - Analyst
Savanthi Syth - Analyst
That's helpful, Tammy. And maybe just following up on that. So from a timing perspective, those kind of ride initiatives, I'm guessing they kind of kicked in, in there in the second and third quarter. is it kind of fairly consistent than the rest of the quarters because it's the second half, you do have that kind of step up in cabin retrofit?
這很有幫助,塔米。也許只是對此進行跟進。因此,從時間角度來看,我猜測這些乘車計劃將在第二季和第三季開始發揮作用。它是否與其他季度相比相當一致,因為這是下半年,你們在客艙改裝方面確實取得了這樣的進步?
Tammy Romo - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Tammy Romo - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah. So it ramps up with the biggest impact hitting in the fourth quarter.
是的。因此,其影響在第四季尤為顯著。
Savanthi Syth - Analyst
Savanthi Syth - Analyst
Okay. Understood. Thank you.
好的。明白了。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Duane Pfennigwerth, Evercore ISI.
Duane Pfennigwerth,Evercore ISI。
Duane Pfennigwerth - Analyst
Duane Pfennigwerth - Analyst
Thanks. Tammy, congrats, good luck on the next phase of your career. I know you're going to miss all this fun.
謝謝。塔米,恭喜你,祝你職業生涯的下一個階段好運。我知道你會懷念這一切樂趣。
Tammy Romo - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Tammy Romo - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
I'm going to miss you Duane.
我會想念你的,杜安。
Duane Pfennigwerth - Analyst
Duane Pfennigwerth - Analyst
So look, I wanted to ask you maybe a longer-term question. There's a lot of symmetry right now between the industry backdrop and the renaissance that kicked off in 2012. And Southwest was really a big part of that renaissance. And as we go back and look at that period, you really had a multiyear period of margin expansion, RASM growth over CASM growth, not a quarter or two or timing shifts here and there, but a multiyear period of margin expansion.
所以看,我想問你一個可能比較長期的問題。目前的產業背景與 2012 年開始的復興有著很大的對稱性。西南航空確實在這次復興中發揮了重要作用。當我們回顧那段時期時,我們確實經歷了多年的利潤擴張期,RASM 成長超過 CASM 成長,不只是一個季度或兩個季度或這裡或那裡的時間變化,而是多年的利潤擴張期。
Now some of that was macro growth and benign fuel prices, but really CASM growth for Southwest was modest despite the fact that capacity growth was also modest and fairly tight over a multiyear period. So my question is, sorry for the long-winded lead-in, from a unit cost perspective, do you see the potential to enter a similar multiyear period where you get modest unit cost growth on modest capacity growth or does better CASM really depend upon getting back to a period of higher growth?
其中一些是宏觀增長和良性的燃料價格,但實際上西南航空的 CASM 增長是溫和的,儘管在多年期間運力增長也很溫和且相當緊張。所以我的問題是,抱歉囉嗦了這麼久,從單位成本的角度來看,您是否認為有可能進入一個類似的多年期,在這個時期,在適度的產能增長的同時獲得適度的單位成本增長,或者更好的 CASM 是否真的取決於回到更高的增長時期?
Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, Duane, it's Bob. I'll take a shot and then Tammy can chime in. I think the -- we're not ready to guide '26, '27 CASM-X, but the exit rate for '25, at least give you some indication of what we're striving for, may be a reach, but we're striving for over the course of the rest of the plan, '26, '27. So not unreasonable that we can have CASM in that low single-digit range. And Obviously, we have labor rate surety with the contracts closed down. We really don't have any openers of magnitude to '27. So yeah, I think that's absolutely -- it is absolutely doable.
是的,杜安,我是鮑伯。我會嘗試一下,然後 Tammy 可以加入進來。我認為——我們還沒有準備好指導'26、'27 CASM-X,但'25 的退出率至少可以給你一些我們正在努力實現的目標的跡象,可能有點難以實現,但我們正在努力實現計劃的其餘部分,'26、'27。因此,將 CASM 控制在低個位數範圍內並非不合理。顯然,隨著合約的終止,我們的勞動力率得到了保證。對於 27 年來說,我們確實沒有什麼重大的開端。是的,我認為這絕對是——絕對可行的。
Duane Pfennigwerth - Analyst
Duane Pfennigwerth - Analyst
And then maybe just for my follow-up, the certification process for your new seating configuration. Can you give us an update there? What have you learned since last quarter or since Investor Day? And when does this really start in earnest?
然後可能只是為了我的後續跟進,您的新座位配置的認證過程。您能提供我們最新進展嗎?自上個季度或投資者日以來您學到了什麼?那麼什麼時候這一切才真正開始呢?
Ryan Green - Executive Vice President, Chief Transformation Officer
Ryan Green - Executive Vice President, Chief Transformation Officer
Duane, we finalized really our cabin layouts, which allows us to finish up weight and balance certification with the FAA and get our STC certification. We'll get to wait and balance certification. We're planning for that. Of course, it's dependent on FAA timelines, but we're pretty confident we'll get that here in the first quarter and then the certification in the second and then that will -- we can begin retrofits following at that point.
杜安,我們最終確定了機艙佈局,這使我們能夠完成美國聯邦航空局的重量和平衡認證並獲得 STC 認證。我們將等待並平衡認證。我們正在為此做計劃。當然,這取決於美國聯邦航空管理局的時間表,但我們非常有信心我們將在第一季獲得批准,然後在第二季度獲得認證,然後我們就可以開始進行改造。
That goes along with Tammy's note on the retrofit cost being in the second half of the year. We'll get the retrofit started here midyear, and then that will ramp through the remainder of the year. And we're confident that we've got the vendors in place, our employees are in place to get the fleet retrofit before we get to our operating date.
這與 Tammy 所說的改造成本將在下半年發生相符。我們將在年中開始改造,然後在今年剩餘時間內逐步完成。我們有信心,我們已經找到了供應商,我們的員工也已經到位,可以在營運日期之前完成車隊的改造。
Duane Pfennigwerth - Analyst
Duane Pfennigwerth - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Mike Linenberg, Deutsche Bank
德意志銀行 Mike Linenberg
Michael Linenberg - Analyst
Michael Linenberg - Analyst
I echo the comments of what everybody has said about Tammy. Tammy, it's been a lot of fun. And I think I've been there for the majority of those 33-years. So a good run.
我同意大家對 Tammy 的評論。塔米,這很有趣。我想,在這 33 年裡,我大部分時間都在那裡。跑得不錯。
Anyway, just on questions and in fact, I do have one for you, Tammy. When I think about sale-leaseback transaction that you guys took in the fourth quarter, and so that was 35 airplanes, call it, $90 million. I know that in the past, you had indicated that we could see a margin boost upwards of, call it, maybe 2 points from this strategy. And so when I think about your revenue base for 2025, 2026, and I sort of look at this transaction, and I realize not every transaction is going to be sort of sized this way. But it does seem like that we could be looking at maybe upwards of 100 airplanes on a sale-leaseback basis. I mean, is that number too high? How should I think about it?
無論如何,只是關於問題,事實上,我確實有一個問題要問你,塔米。當我想到你們在第四季進行的售後回租交易時,那是 35 架飛機,價值 9,000 萬美元。我知道您過去曾表示過,透過這項策略,我們可以看到利潤率上升,比如說,上升 2 個百分點。因此,當我考慮 2025 年、2026 年的收入基礎並研究這筆交易時,我意識到並非每筆交易的規模都是這樣的。但看起來我們可能會考慮以售後回租的方式購買 100 架以上的飛機。我的意思是,這個數字是不是太高了?我該如何思考這個問題?
And what sort of as a follow-up, what are you sort of targeting for 2025 with respect to sale leasebacks? And I know that there was an RFP for 30 outright divestitures. Where does that sit? So kind of a multi-pronged airplane question.
那麼作為後續問題,您對 2025 年售後回租的目標是什麼?我知道有一份針對 30 項徹底資產剝離的 RFP。它位於哪裡?所以這是一個涉及多方面的飛機問題。
Tammy Romo - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Tammy Romo - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah. No, thank you, Mike, and I think you're a lot of fun too. So on your question, I think the overarching theme here is we have a lot of levers we can pull to hit our targeted EBIT contribution from our fleet strategy. So -- and the sale leasebacks are going to be dependent on our [-800] exit strategy here. So that's just really a technique to help us manage that. And obviously, to the extent the proceeds, the proceeds will go to our fleet modernization efforts, obviously, ultimately with the replacement of the MAX 8 because we get EBIT benefits from that as well.
是的。不,謝謝你,麥克,我也覺得你很有趣。因此,關於您的問題,我認為這裡的首要主題是,我們可以利用許多槓桿來實現我們車隊策略所貢獻的息稅前利潤目標。所以 — 售後回租將取決於我們的 [-800] 退出策略。所以這其實只是一種幫助我們管理這個問題的技術。顯然,就收益而言,這些收益將用於我們的機隊現代化建設,顯然最終將用於更換 MAX 8,因為我們也能從中獲得息稅前利潤 (EBIT) 收益。
So -- but the bulk -- and again, we're going to -- just to be clear, those -- it will depend on the economics of those transactions and with the goal, obviously, to be NPV positive. So the bulk of the benefit really comes from sales of the excess aircraft that we do not need to hit our moderated capacity plan. So that, of course, is dependent on Boeing deliveries and just market conditions. But the main constraint there is Boeing deliveries and Bob reported on Boeing in his remarks. So they are ramping up. And we did, I think, have a pretty conservative estimate of what our deliveries are for this year at 38.
所以 — — 但大部分 — — 再說一次,我們要 — — 只是為了清楚起見,這些 — — 這將取決於這些交易的經濟性,並且顯然目標是實現 NPV 正值。因此,大部分收益實際上來自於出售我們不需要達到適度產能計畫的多餘飛機。因此,這當然取決於波音的交付情況和市場條件。但主要的限制因素是波音公司的交付情況,鮑勃在他的評論中報告了波音公司的情況。因此他們正在加大力度。我認為,我們對今年的交付量(38)有一個相當保守的估計。
So see where Boeing ends up. So that's what makes your question a little bit tricky in terms of timing, but we could have potentially up to 50 to 55 deliveries. And again, those would go towards our fleet modernization efforts. So I think the takeaway here is that we have a lot of levers. We're going to manage this very carefully. And again, the goal with the -800 is we are exiting we're exiting the NGs and the sale leaseback is just an effective tool to help us manage that. But the bulk of the program would come from sales.
看看波音的最終結果如何。所以你的問題在時間方面有點棘手,但我們可能有多達 50 到 55 次交付。再次強調,這些將用於我們的艦隊現代化努力。所以我認為這裡的要點是我們有很多槓桿。我們將非常謹慎地處理此事。再說一遍,-800 的目標是我們退出 NG,而售後回租只是幫助我們管理這個目標的有效工具。但該計劃的大部分收入將來自銷售。
Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. I was just going to say, just sale leaseback is just a pull forward sale, right? So our strong preference is sales, 800s to replace and lower operating costs and -8s to maximize the embedded value against the market that's in the fleet order book. And I would just to say it again, and it's -- so the more Boeing can deliver, the more we can execute the strategy in 2025.
是的。我只是想說,售後回租只是一種提前銷售,對嗎?因此,我們強烈傾向於銷售,用 800 來替換並降低營運成本,用 -8 來最大化機隊訂單簿中相對於市場的內含價值。我只想再說一遍,波音交付的產品越多,我們就越有能力在 2025 年實施這項策略。
I was at Seattle last week and really encouraged by what I saw on the line, the processes, the procedures, slack time coming out, sort of all the things you want to see. They have a long ways to go. But pending something that we don't know about, I'm strongly optimistic they can exceed the 38 -- and we probably have upside to 50, 55. So that would certainly help in executing the fleet strategy on the sales side.
上週我去了西雅圖,看到生產線上的流程、程序、空閒時間,以及所有你想看到的東西,我真的深受鼓舞。他們還有很長的路要走。但在等待一些我們不知道的事情時,我非常樂觀地認為它們可以超過 38 — — 而且我們可能還有上升到 50、55 的空間。所以這肯定有助於在銷售方面執行車隊策略。
So a lot to be seen here. I think we'll know a lot once we know whether Boeing breaks rate 38 in March, early April. I expect that they will. We'll have to see -- and then I think that puts us in a good spot to really update you on what we now expect in terms of deliveries and what we now think we can execute in terms of the fleet monetization plan.
這裡有很多可看的東西。我想,一旦我們知道波音公司是否在 3 月或 4 月初突破 38 利率,我們就會知道很多事情。我希望他們會。我們將不得不拭目以待——然後我認為這將使我們處於一個很好的位置來真正向您更新我們目前對交付的預期以及我們現在認為我們可以在機隊貨幣化計劃方面執行的內容。
Tammy Romo - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Tammy Romo - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah. And Mike, I just wanted to make one more. I just want to be really clear on this. We are working to get to our 2027 target, which is without fleet. At the end of the day, we -- our core base business, where we are aiming to get to our 15% return on invested capital of at least 15% and op margins of excluding special items of greater than 10%. So that's really -- we're talking a lot about fleet, but I just don't want that to get lost in the conversation.
是的。麥克,我只是想再做一次。我只是想把這一點說清楚。我們正在努力實現 2027 年的目標,即不擁有艦隊。總而言之,我們的核心基礎業務,我們的目標是實現至少 15% 的投資資本回報率和超過 10% 的不包括特殊項目的營業利潤率。所以這確實——我們正在談論很多有關艦隊的事情,但我只是不想讓它在談話中被忽視。
Michael Linenberg - Analyst
Michael Linenberg - Analyst
Great, thanks. Thanks everyone.
太好了,謝謝。謝謝大家。
Operator
Operator
Catherine O'Brien, Goldman Sachs
凱瑟琳‧歐布萊恩,高盛
Catherine O'Brien - Analyst
Catherine O'Brien - Analyst
Good afternoon, everyone, and maybe I haven't been here for all of the 33 years like Mike has. But Tammy, it's truly been a pleasure to work with you. So congratulations on the career on quite a career and happy retirement.
大家下午好,也許我不像麥克已經在這裡待了 33 年。但是 Tammy,與您共事真的很榮幸。所以恭喜您在職涯中取得了豐碩的成果並享受退休生活。
So I have one quick revenue one and then one quick fleet one for you, Tammy, but maybe I'll start on revenue. The 4Q RASM result you mentioned that the beat was driven in part by stronger holiday peak and then also the ramp of revenue management. Can you just help us think about broad strokes, how much each of those buckets contributed?
因此,我有一個關於收入的快速信息,然後有一個關於艦隊的快速信息給你,Tammy,但也許我會從收入開始。您提到的第四季 RASM 結果顯示,業績超出預期部分得益於假期高峰的加劇以及收入管理的提升。您能否幫助我們大致思考一下,每個桶子的貢獻有多大?
And how do we think about the pacing of that $1 billion in tactical revenue-driven initiatives in 2025. How much of your 1Q guide does that drive versus general industry environment? And how does that build for the year?
我們如何看待 2025 年這 10 億美元的戰術收入驅動措施的實施步伐?與整個產業環境相比,這對您的第一季指引有多大影響?那麼今年的發展情況如何?
Andrew Watterson - Chief Operating Officer
Andrew Watterson - Chief Operating Officer
It's always hard to completely tear apart accurately the -- I would say that if you got to look at kind of sequentially how our RASM went from Q3 to Q4, and how that compares to our norms, how the other airlines -- how they sequentially progress and how it compares to their norms, you see a level of outperformance with Southwest Airlines.
總是很難完全準確地分開——我想說的是,如果您按順序查看我們的 RASM 從第三季度到第四季度的變化情況,並將其與我們的規範進行比較,與其他航空公司的變化情況進行比較——它們的變化情況以及與它們的規範進行比較,您就會看到西南航空的表現優於其他航空公司。
Do -- the same thing in Q4 to Q1, you see that same amount. You see the same effect, if you will, of an outperformance on a sequential basis. This gives you an idea that it's some -- there's some company-specific things that are happening there. and that gives us confidence in hopefully our investors' confidence that we're seeing that kind of RASM reversion that we need back to our historical levels to hit our plan.
在第四季和第一季做同樣的事情,你會看到相同的數量。如果你願意的話,你會看到連續表現優異的相同效果。這讓你了解到那裡正在發生一些公司特有的事情。這使我們對投資者充滿信心,希望我們看到 RASM 回歸,我們需要回到歷史水平才能實現我們的計劃。
Now within that, kind of tearing them apart each of these by design elements of our tactical initiatives are self-reinforcing. The network changes the revenue management changes, the marketing changes, all those work together. So really, the order of operations of quantifying it, whatever you go with first, it gets a bigger benefit, so to speak.
現在,在其中將它們分開,我們的戰術舉措的設計元素都是自我強化的。網路改變了收入管理的變化、行銷的變化,所有這些變化共同運作。因此實際上,量化操作的順序,無論你先採用什麼順序,都可以獲得更大的好處。
Now, revenue management did have a stronger impact in Q4 and into Q1 than the other two. So that's why we called it out in our prepared remarks, but they're all kind of contributing. So I think for that idiosyncratic southwest part is those three combined, and we see that progressing throughout the year. I will say the ones that we highlighted in Investor Day where they kind of are getting back to our normal kind of yield discount, if you will, versus our competitors. -- and getting back our load factor to norm. So the two kind of big levers we highlighted that will be signals of us progressing that we did -- we had more progress than, frankly, I expected on the yield side and then a little most parks on load factor.
現在,收入管理對第四季和第一季的影響確實比其他兩個季度更大。這就是我們在準備好的發言中提到這一點的原因,但他們都做出了貢獻。所以我認為對於這個獨特的西南部來說,這三個因素結合在一起,而且我們看到這種趨勢全年都在不斷進步。我想說的是,我們在投資者日重點強調的那些,與我們的競爭對手相比,它們正在恢復到正常的收益率折扣。 ——並使我們的負載率恢復正常。因此,我們強調的兩個大槓桿將成為我們取得進展的訊號——我們在收益方面取得的進展比我預期的要大,然後在載客率方面也取得了一些進展。
So as we go throughout the year, I expect to keep and grow that yield benefit and then load factor would be the one that comes second throughout the year. So I think if you look closely at those each quarter, you'll get an idea of how we're progressing the tactical initiatives.
因此,隨著我們全年的發展,我預計收益效益將保持並成長,而載客率將是全年排名第二的效益。因此,我認為,如果您每季仔細觀察這些情況,您就會了解我們如何推進戰術舉措。
Catherine O'Brien - Analyst
Catherine O'Brien - Analyst
That's great. And then I guess one last question for Tammy. On the fleet strategy, you've called out you expect that to contribute about $500 million in EBIT on average per year. I understand that's very fluid. Tammy, in your answer to Mike, I think you made it clear that the bulk of that will come from straight sales, not sale-leasebacks.
那太棒了。然後我想問 Tammy 最後一個問題。關於車隊策略,您曾提到,預計該策略每年將平均貢獻約 5 億美元的息稅前利潤。我理解這非常不穩定。塔米,當你回答麥克時,我想你已經明確表示,其中大部分將來自直接銷售,而不是售後回租。
Should we think of sale leasebacks as offsetting that positive sale impact? Just with the first leaseback the increased rent over three years offset the gain on the decrease in D&A? Or do we need to be adding like other items like lower maintenance dispatch reliability. I guess what I'm really getting at is, do you expect the net of gain aircraft front and DNA for these sale leasebacks to also be EBIT positive? Or how do we think about that?
我們是否應該將售後回租視為抵銷正面的銷售影響?僅透過第一次回租,三年內增加的租金就能抵銷折舊和攤提減少帶來的收益嗎?或者我們是否需要新增其他項目,例如降低維護調度可靠性。我想我真正想說的是,您是否預計這些售後回租業務的飛機前端淨收益和 DNA 的息稅前利潤也將為正數?或者我們該如何看待這個問題?
Tammy Romo - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Tammy Romo - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah. No, great question, Catie. Yes, when we look at our sale-leaseback opportunities, we -- our goal and our intention is to do all of this and NPV be positive way. So while yes, you're recognizing a gain when you sell the aircraft, and there is increased rents that would exceed the depreciation expense. Again, these are short-term sale leasebacks, again, to help manage the exit of in fleet.
是的。不,凱蒂,這個問題問得很好。是的,當我們審視售後回租機會時,我們的目標和意圖是做到這一切,並使 NPV 保持正值。因此,雖然是的,您在出售飛機時確認了收益,但租金的增加會超過折舊費用。再次強調,這些都是短期售後回租,目的是為了幫助管理車隊的退出。
But when we look at that in total, it would -- it's NPV positive, and that's the way we're constructing our fleet strategy here. So but we're taking into account all of the considerations that you just mentioned, maintenance, et cetera. And we've got, again, a lot of levers we can pull to do this in an NPV positive way. And hopefully, that helps.
但當我們從總體上看時,它的 NPV 是正的,這就是我們在此建立車隊策略的方式。所以,但是我們正在考慮您剛才提到的所有因素,維護等等。而且,我們還可以採取許多手段,以 NPV 為正的方式來實現這一目標。希望這能有所幫助。
Catherine O'Brien - Analyst
Catherine O'Brien - Analyst
Thanks and congrats Tammy.
謝謝並祝賀 Tammy。
Tammy Romo - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Tammy Romo - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Thank you, Catie.
謝謝你,凱蒂。
Operator
Operator
Dan McKenzie, Seaport Global
Dan McKenzie,Seaport Global
Daniel McKenzie - Analyst
Daniel McKenzie - Analyst
Tammy, I have to jump on the bandwagon here and say huge congrats on such an extended run as a CFO and at Southwest, of course.
塔米,我必須順應潮流,對您長期擔任西南航空首席財務官表示熱烈祝賀。
A couple of questions here. Following up on my question. And when all is said and done, how much cash could potentially be unlocked from the balance sheet from these sales? And so I guess my question is how many aircraft fall into that attractive mid-age bucket -- and over how many years could these sales potentially occur if you wanted to pull the trigger?
這裡有幾個問題。繼續回答我的問題。當一切都塵埃落定之後,這些銷售能從資產負債表中釋放出多少現金?所以我想我的問題是,有多少架飛機屬於這個具有吸引力的中年飛機類別——以及如果您願意的話,這些銷售可能在多少年內發生?
Tammy Romo - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Tammy Romo - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah. Well, first of all, thank you, Dan. And it's been a pleasure working with you over the years. So we're not going to give specific guidance on the total proceeds. We've got if you look at our -- if we look at our order book, and I shared this at Investor Day, we just have airplanes in excess of the aircraft that we're going to need here over the next three-year period to hit our 1% to 2% capacity growth target. So that gives us the proceeds from that would obviously be significant.
是的。嗯,首先謝謝你,丹。多年來我很榮幸能與您合作。因此我們不會就總收益提供具體的指引。如果你看一下我們的訂單簿,你會發現,正如我在投資者日分享的那樣,我們擁有的飛機數量超過了未來三年實現 1% 至 2% 的運力增長目標所需的飛機數量。因此,這帶給我們的收益顯然是巨大的。
And again, what we're focused on is hitting the operating margin targets that we provided you at Investor Day as well as the return on invested capital. So not prepared to give you that today because, again, this depends on the market. And we're going to do transactions that make financial sense and that are prudent to the bottom line. And again, we're managing our invested capital base with those proceeds and focused on exiting our NG fleet by 2031, which will set us up really well for the next generation in terms of CapEx requirements to fund future growth.
再次強調,我們的重點是實現我們在投資者日為您提供的營業利潤率目標以及投資資本回報率。所以今天不准備給你這個,因為這又取決於市場。我們將進行既具有財務意義、對底線有利的交易。再次,我們將利用這些收益來管理我們的投資資本基礎,並專注於在 2031 年前退出我們的 NG 船隊,這將為我們在資本支出需求方面為下一代未來成長提供資金打下良好的基礎。
So I'm not trying to give you a nonanswer. I'm really just not prepared to walk you through specifics because it really does depend on Boeing here and the market.
所以我並不是想給你一個不答案。我實際上還沒有準備好向您介紹具體細節,因為這確實取決於波音和市場。
Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
And Dan, just chiming in, I think just to quickly add, I've said this many, many times, we're committed to extracting every dime out of that value -- embedded value in the order book. So I think we have [672] right now. So what -- the commitment is whatever the exact strategy in terms of how every transaction lays out, the intent is to pull every bit of value out for ourselves and our shareholders.
丹,我只是想插嘴一下,我想補充一下,我已經說過很多次了,我們致力於從訂單簿中嵌入的價值中榨取每一分錢。所以我認為我們現在有[672]。那麼——承諾無論每筆交易的具體策略為何,其目的都是為我們自己和股東獲取每一點價值。
And if you run this out, yes, you get to an average fleet age, I think, a [5] all MAX fleet. That's terrific. It's very low. So there's also work to do, I think, to look at the intersection of optimizing a still really good -- really good industry-leading fleet age and the number of aircraft that could be excess at current capacity rates. So there's work to do to maybe tackle exactly what is optimal in terms of your question.
如果用完這些,是的,我認為,你的機隊平均年齡將達到 [5] 歲,全是 MAX 機隊。太棒了。它非常低。因此,我認為還有很多工作要做,要研究優化仍然非常好的——非常好的行業領先機隊年齡和當前容量率下可能過剩的飛機數量之間的交集。因此,我們需要做一些工作來準確解決您問題中的最佳問題。
And then last -- you didn't ask this, but there have been some discussion of this fleet strategy related maybe to what some others are doing. And the difference is, to me, we have excess aircraft with strong embedded values because of the credits and our own value pricing, especially on the MAX 8s, and we're using the cash proceeds to buy back stock and deliver value to our shareholders and to modernize the fleet and lower operating costs.
最後—您沒有問這個問題,但是關於這個艦隊策略已經有一些討論,可能與其他人正在做的事情有關。對我來說,不同之處在於,由於信貸和我們自己的價值定價,我們擁有具有強大內含價值的過剩飛機,尤其是 MAX 8,我們正在利用現金收益回購股票並為股東創造價值,並對機隊進行現代化改造並降低營運成本。
So that excess cash is going to work for the right things. So again, the exact optimal intersection of the fleet age and the number of transactions sort of TBD, but we're certainly going to run it out to a very attractive fleet age.
這樣,多餘的現金就可以用在正確的事情上。因此,車隊年齡和交易數量的最佳交集仍有待確定,但我們肯定會將其調整到一個非常有吸引力的車隊年齡。
Daniel McKenzie - Analyst
Daniel McKenzie - Analyst
Yeah, that's perfect. Second question here is a balance sheet question. I believe the plan is to pay down the debt coming due this year. I think it's $2.9 billion in the first half, if I'm not mistaken, but please correct me on that. But where would that leave the balance sheet metrics? And secondly, would that open the door for the Board to consider an acceleration of capital returns once you hit those metrics?
是的,太完美了。這裡的第二個問題是資產負債表問題。我相信該計劃是為了償還今年到期的債務。如果我沒記錯的話,我認為上半年的數字是 29 億美元,但請糾正我。但資產負債表指標又會如何呢?其次,一旦達到這些指標,董事會是否會考慮加速資本回報?
Tammy Romo - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Tammy Romo - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. So we're -- yes, we would -- the plan is to continue to reduce our leverage here as we go, as we shared at Investor Day and will obviously address that question here as we go with the Board.
是的。因此,是的,我們的計劃是繼續降低我們的槓桿率,正如我們在投資者日分享的那樣,我們顯然會在與董事會討論時解決這個問題。
Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. Obviously, we're committed to maintain what everyone is praising Tammy for here, a strong balance sheet and maintaining the appropriate level of leverage. Obviously, there's a range to everything here, and we'll be taking that up with the board.
是的。顯然,我們致力於維持每個人都稱讚 Tammy 的強勁資產負債表並維持適當的槓桿率。顯然,這裡所有的事情都有一個範圍,我們會向董事會討論這個問題。
Tammy Romo - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Tammy Romo - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah. And you know our target there is the mid-30% range. So obviously, the pay down of debt this year will put us closer to that goal.
是的。你知道我們的目標是30%左右。因此顯然,今年償還債務將使我們更接近這一目標。
Daniel McKenzie - Analyst
Daniel McKenzie - Analyst
Thanks so much, you.
非常感謝你。
Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Ravi Shanker, Morgan Stanley.
摩根士丹利的拉維‧尚克 (Ravi Shanker)。
Ravi Shanker - Analyst
Ravi Shanker - Analyst
Hi, good afternoon. This is Catherine on for Ravi. We also wanted to thank you, Tammy, for all your help over the past few years, and we congratulate you as well.
嗨,下午好。這是凱瑟琳,代表拉維。我們也想感謝 Tammy 在過去幾年給予我們的所有幫助,並且我們也向您表示祝賀。
I was just wondering if you had thoughts on overall industry capacity in maybe 2Q through 3Q and whether you're confident that may come down from what we're seeing maybe in schedules or if there's any areas of pockets overcapacity that you're seeing specifically?
我只是想知道您是否對第二季到第三季的整體產業產能有何看法,以及您是否有信心這一產能可能會從我們在航班時刻表中看到的情況下降,或者您是否看到某些領域存在產能過剩的情況?
Andrew Watterson - Chief Operating Officer
Andrew Watterson - Chief Operating Officer
Yeah, certainly. I would say that schedules are really firm for Q1. And our schedules are relatively pretty far out because we don't like to republish some level of adjustments necessary given the Boeing delivery situation we just discussed here for the last hour.
是的,當然。我想說第一季的時間安排非常緊湊。而且我們的時間安排相對較長,因為我們不想重新發布考慮到我們剛剛在過去一個小時討論過的波音交付情況而進行的必要調整。
But a lot of the airlines take an approach of modifying substantially capacity closer in. So as a result, summer and beyond, we don't view as complete yet. And so we'll wait until those firm up before we make assessment of what the back half of the year is going to look like. Some airlines having published beyond kind of mid-May. So it's still in flux, but what we do see is published and firm is, I think, a constructive backdrop.
但許多航空公司採取了在接近年底時大幅調整運能的策略。因此,我們認為夏季及以後的時間還不算結束。因此,我們將等待這些因素確定後再評估今年下半年的情況。一些航空公司已在五月中旬之後發布了這項消息。因此,它仍然處於不斷變化中,但我們確實看到了已發布的內容,我認為,這是一個建設性的背景。
Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. And Catherine, one of the questions we get a lot, obviously, is how long does the constructive backdrop persists? And despite the optimism that we fill with Boeing, there's still a lot of work to do to get back to the significant rates and completely get supply chain healthy. Obviously, on the Airbus side, you've got the gear turbo fan and long, long span times on engines.
是的。凱瑟琳,我們常被問到的一個問題顯然是,建設性的背景能持續多久?儘管我們對波音充滿樂觀,但要恢復到顯著的產量並使供應鏈完全健康,仍有許多工作要做。顯然,在空中巴士方面,你擁有齒輪渦輪風扇和很長的引擎壽命。
And so I'm of the view that despite the improvements we're seeing in the constructive backdrop driven by -- especially manufacturing constraints still exists for years. ahead. So this is not something that's going to come off anytime soon. So I think it's going to remain constructive for quite a while.
因此,我認為,儘管我們看到了建設性背景的改善,但特別是製造業的限制仍然存在多年。前面。所以這不是一個很快就會實現的事情。因此我認為它將在相當長的一段時間內保持建設性。
Ravi Shanker - Analyst
Ravi Shanker - Analyst
And just as a quick follow-up. I know you guys have kind of talked about your plans for retrofitting aircraft for the premium cabin. But I was just curious if you could give us a quick update on the progress you've made since the Investor Day, maybe something that you've been excited about or that you've done since then.
這只是快速的後續行動。我知道你們已經談論過改裝飛機高級艙的計畫。但我只是好奇,您是否可以向我們簡要介紹一下自投資者日以來所取得的進展,也許是一些讓您興奮的事情,或者您從那時起所做的事情。
Ryan Green - Executive Vice President, Chief Transformation Officer
Ryan Green - Executive Vice President, Chief Transformation Officer
Thank you. Yes, Catherine. We covered the retrofits, the progress there, which is good. earlier in the call, I think the -- getting the amendment done with Chase is another key step in are the path towards selling and operating in an assigned and premium environment, we needed to switch kind of our boarding benefits over to boarding and seating benefits, which I think our customers will be out with the details soon and with our customers. But I think what we've built there in partnership with Chase is going to be really exciting for customers. I think it's going to drive co-brand card acquisitions in the future. So definitely excited about that.
謝謝。是的,凱瑟琳。我們報道了改造情況及其進展,這是好事。在早些時候的電話會議中,我認為與大通完成修訂是朝著在指定和優質環境中銷售和運營邁出的另一個關鍵一步,我們需要將我們的登機福利轉換為登機和座位福利,我認為我們的客戶將很快與我們的客戶公佈細節。但我認為,我們與大通合作建立的專案將真正讓客戶感到興奮。我認為這將推動未來的聯名卡收購。我對此感到非常興奮。
And just generally, I'm pleased with our progress overall. Technology development is going well. the team broadly across Southwest has really rallied around this as a key priority for the company. Everybody understands the value to our customers, value to shareholders, and value to our employees. And I just think that the pace of execution has been really good, and the focus is there. So I'm encouraged by our progress and what's left to come here over the balance of the year.
總的來說,我對我們的整體進展感到滿意。技術發展進展順利。西南航空的全體團隊都一致將此視為公司的首要任務。每個人都了解我們對客戶的價值、對股東的價值、對員工的價值。我只是認為執行速度非常好,而且重點就在那裡。因此,我對我們的進展以及今年剩餘時間將取得的進展感到鼓舞。
Andrew Watterson - Chief Operating Officer
Andrew Watterson - Chief Operating Officer
I would also add, Ryan, we started -- we intend to dynamically price the seats and the new product. And we went live with dynamic pricing for our upgraded boarding product this quarter, actually just recently, and that's going to kind of give us kind of training the models and giving us practices and the processes and technologies for almost a full year here before we go live. So I think that's a kind of early win. It will help us this year, but also as a proof point of our technology acumen in advance of the new product.
我還要補充一點,瑞安,我們開始——我們打算對座位和新產品進行動態定價。實際上,我們最近才在本季開始對升級後的登機產品實施動態定價,這將使我們在正式上線前有近一年的時間對模型進行訓練,並讓我們掌握實踐、流程和技術。所以我認為這是一種早期的勝利。這不僅對我們今年有所幫助,也是我們在新產品推出前技術敏銳度的證明點。
Ryan Green - Executive Vice President, Chief Transformation Officer
Ryan Green - Executive Vice President, Chief Transformation Officer
100% agree.
100%同意。
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, we now transition to our media portion of today's call. Ms. Whitney Eichinger, Chief Communications Officer, leads us off. Please go ahead, Whitney.
女士們、先生們,現在我們進入今天電話會議的媒體部分。首席通訊官惠特尼·艾辛格女士帶領我們開始演講。請繼續,惠特尼。
Whitney Eichinger - Senior VP & Chief Communications Officer
Whitney Eichinger - Senior VP & Chief Communications Officer
Thanks, Gary. Welcome to the media on our call today. Before we begin to hear your questions, could you please remind everyone how to share -- how to queue up for questions.
謝謝,加里。歡迎媒體參加我們今天的電話會議。在我們開始聽取你們的提問之前,請你們提醒一下大家如何分享-如何排隊提問。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(操作員指令)
Mary Schlangenstein, Bloomberg News.
瑪麗‧施蘭根斯坦,彭博新聞社。
Mary Schlangenstein - Analyst
Mary Schlangenstein - Analyst
I just had a quick question on the amended credit card deal. With your forecast that it's going to really drive acquisitions of the card up. Are you offering any kind of a forecast in terms of how your remuneration from Chase may expand and some idea of what that could be on an annual basis going forward?
我只是想問一下關於修改後的信用卡協議的一個簡單的問題。根據您的預測,這將真正推動卡的購買量上升。您是否對您從大通獲得的薪酬可能如何成長做出預測,並且對未來年度薪酬成長情況有一些想法?
Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mary, I'll start, and I'm sure Ryan will add. I just wanted to say first, thanks to our team and to our Chase partners. It's a big amendment, and we move through it with speed and pace, and so I'm just -- I'm very grateful. But now we're really for the new deal, it does include significant additional compensation. I think you could think of it as competitive with recent deals in the market that I'm sure you're familiar with. It was contemplated in our Investor Day plan. But no, we're not going to -- we're not able to provide exact details on the financials. But Ryan, if you want to add anything?
瑪麗,我先開始,我相信瑞安也會補充。我首先想說,感謝我們的團隊和大通夥伴。這是一項重大修正案,我們正在快速推進,因此我非常感激。但現在我們確實支持這項新協議,它確實包括了大量額外補償。我認為您可以認為它與我相信您熟悉的市場上最近的交易具有競爭力。這已在我們的投資者日計劃中考慮到。但不,我們不會——我們無法提供有關財務的具體細節。但 Ryan,你想補充什麼嗎?
Ryan Green - Executive Vice President, Chief Transformation Officer
Ryan Green - Executive Vice President, Chief Transformation Officer
No, it's -- we're pleased to get it done. It's a proof point in plan. And like you said, it's absolutely very competitive with what's out there with legacy carriers in the market.
不,我們很高興能完成這件事。這是計劃中的一個證明點。正如您所說,它與市場上的傳統運營商相比絕對非常具有競爭力。
Mary Schlangenstein - Analyst
Mary Schlangenstein - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Robert Silk, Travel Weekly.
羅伯特‧希爾克(Robert Silk),《旅遊週刊》。
Robert Silk - Analyst
Robert Silk - Analyst
Two quick questions. One, has there been a shift in Southwest approach to DEI? There's been some attention paid to the change in title from your Vice President of DEI changing the corporate citizenship and Chief Inclusion Officer. That's question one.
兩個簡單的問題。第一,西南航空對 DEI 的態度是否有了轉變?人們對職位的變化給予了一定關注,從 DEI 副總裁變為企業公民和首席包容官。這是第一個問題。
Question 2, very different question is [get away] Southwest any updates on that in terms of how you work with the travel trade or travel advisers.
問題 2 是一個非常不同的問題是,西南航空能否提供有關您與旅遊業或旅遊顧問合作的最新資訊。
Andrew Watterson - Chief Operating Officer
Andrew Watterson - Chief Operating Officer
I'll start with the second one first. With that one, we have no changes to announce in general, were as we previously discussed, were a direct-to-consumer business. And so great majority of the business case is predicated on selling to our current customers, who want to buy packages, but who are unfulfilled by Southwest Airlines. So we'll be able to offer them what they want to buy in or buying today. And so we think that will be a benefit.
我先從第二個開始。就這一點而言,我們總體上沒有什麼變化需要宣布,正如我們之前所討論的,我們是一家直接面向消費者的業務。因此,絕大多數商業案例都以向現有客戶銷售產品為前提,這些客戶希望購買套餐,但西南航空未能滿足他們的要求。這樣我們就能提供他們想買的或今天想買的商品。因此我們認為這將是有益的。
Whether we work with a trade or not, how much -- we do at the margin in some situations, and there's nothing to philosophy against that, but mostly the business case is predicated on direct sales. But as we get closer to go live, we'll firm up our trade policies.
無論我們是否從事貿易,在某些情況下,我們的利潤有多少,沒有任何哲學可以反對這一點,但大多數商業案例都是以直接銷售為前提的。但隨著上線日期的臨近,我們將鞏固我們的貿易政策。
Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
And Robert, on the DEI question, whether it's today, 5 years ago, 10 years ago or 20 years ago, I have been here 37 years. We've always worked hard to hire people who are just nice. They fit the culture and to create an environment that is inclusive and we use the word belonging, People just feel good about being here. They like coming to work. They like their team, and they feel like they belong at Southwest.
羅伯特,關於 DEI 問題,無論是今天,5 年前,10 年前還是 20 年前,我在這裡已經 37 年了。我們一直努力聘用善良的人才。它們適應文化並創造了一個包容的環境,我們使用歸屬感這個詞,人們在這裡感覺很好。他們喜歡來上班。他們喜歡自己的團隊,感覺自己屬於西南航空。
And then as it relates to hiring and promotions, they've always been merit-based and no different across our history. So no, no changes in terms of how we think about how we treat people and how we reward people. Now obviously, there's a lot of questions about the flurry of executive orders as needed, we'll be evaluating those and understanding what we may need to do. And so I think just sort of stay tuned there.
至於招聘和晉升,一直以來都是基於績效的,在我們的歷史上沒有什麼不同。因此,我們對待他人和獎勵他人的態度並沒有改變。顯然,對於所需的一系列行政命令存在許多疑問,我們將對其進行評估並了解我們可能需要做什麼。所以我認為請繼續關注。
Robert Silk - Analyst
Robert Silk - Analyst
Okay, thank you very much.
好的,非常感謝。
Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
You're welcome.
不客氣。
Operator
Operator
This concludes our question-and-answer session for media. So back over to Whitney now for some closing thoughts.
我們的媒體問答環節到此結束。現在回到惠特尼,談一些結束語。
Whitney Eichinger - Senior VP & Chief Communications Officer
Whitney Eichinger - Senior VP & Chief Communications Officer
If anyone has any further questions, our communications group is standing by. Their contact information along with today's news release are all available at swamedia.com.
如果有人還有其他問題,我們的通訊小組隨時待命。他們的聯絡資訊以及今天的新聞稿都可以在 swamedia.com 上找到。
Operator
Operator
The conference has concluded. Thank you all for attending. We'll meet again here next quarter.
會議已經結束。感謝大家的參加。下個季度我們將在這裡再次見面。