西南航空 (LUV) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

西南航空召開電話會議討論第三季的財務表現。他們報告了創紀錄的營業收入,並強調了他們對適應當前需求環境的關注。

該公司承認面臨高燃料成本和勞動力通膨等挑戰,但表示致力於管理成本和提高效率。他們還討論了他們的機隊計劃、忠誠度計劃增強和網路優化工作。

西南航空的目標是實現領先業界的利潤率並滿足股東的期望。他們對 2024 年卓越營運計劃充滿信心,並預計輔助收入和忠誠度計劃將持續成長。

該公司正在調整網路並優化運力,以適應不斷變化的出行模式。他們正在經歷託管商務旅行的緩慢復甦,但整體需求強勁。

西南航空已完成與波音公司的討論,以確保獲得具有成本效益的訂單,以支持其增長計劃和機隊現代化工作。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Hello, everyone, and welcome to the Southwest Airlines Third Quarter 2023 Conference Call. My name is Jamie, and I will be moderating today's conference. This call is being recorded, and a replay will be available on southwest.com in the Investor Relations section. (Operator Instructions)

    大家好,歡迎參加西南航空 2023 年第三季電話會議。我叫傑米,我將主持今天的會議。本次電話會議正在錄音,重播將在 Southwest.com 的投資者關係部分提供。 (操作員說明)

  • At this time, I would like to turn the floor over to Ms. Julia Landrum, Vice President of Investor Relations. Ma'am please go ahead.

    現在,我想請投資者關係副總裁 Julia Landrum 女士發言。女士請繼續。

  • Julia Landrum

    Julia Landrum

  • Thank you so much, and welcome, everyone, to our third quarter 2023 conference call. In just a moment, we will share our prepared remarks and then jump into Q&A. On the call with me today, we have our President and CEO, Bob Jordan; Executive Vice President and CFO, Tammy Romo; Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, Ryan Green; and Chief Operating Officer, Andrew Watterson.

    非常感謝並歡迎大家參加我們的 2023 年第三季電話會議。稍後我們將分享我們準備好的發言,然後進入問答環節。今天與我通話的有我們的總裁兼執行長鮑勃喬丹 (Bob Jordan);執行副總裁兼財務長 Tammy Romo;執行副總裁兼首席商務官 Ryan Green;和首席營運長安德魯·沃特森。

  • A quick reminder that we will make forward-looking statements which are based on our current expectations of future performance, and our actual results could differ materially from expectations. We also reference our non-GAAP results, which exclude special items that are called out and reconciled to GAAP results in our press release. Please refer to the disclosures in our press release from this morning and visit our Investor Relations website for more information.

    快速提醒一下,我們將根據我們目前對未來業績的預期做出前瞻性陳述,我們的實際結果可能與預期有重大差異。我們也參考了我們的非 GAAP 業績,其中不包括在我們的新聞稿中提及並與 GAAP 業績進行協調的特殊項目。請參閱我們今天上午新聞稿中披露的信息,並訪問我們的投資者關係網站以了解更多資訊。

  • With that, Bob, I'll turn it over to you.

    鮑勃,我就把它交給你了。

  • Robert E. Jordan - CEO, President & Director

    Robert E. Jordan - CEO, President & Director

  • Well, thanks, Julia, and good morning, everyone. Before we jump into the financials, I wanted to acknowledge that there have been heart-wrenching challenges around the world the past several months, and we've had natural disasters in the communities that we serve. Earlier this quarter, I visited our team in Maui and witnessed firsthand the impacts from the catastrophic wildfires on the island. Our hearts go out to all those who are suffering, and we're really proud of the support we are providing, including the volunteer efforts of our employees.

    好吧,謝謝朱莉婭,大家早安。在我們開始討論財務問題之前,我想承認過去幾個月世界各地都面臨著令人心碎的挑戰,我們所服務的社區也遭遇了自然災害。本季度早些時候,我拜訪了我們在毛伊島的團隊,親眼目睹了島上災難性野火的影響。我們的心與所有遭受苦難的人同在,我們為我們提供的支持感到自豪,包括員工的志工努力。

  • Now moving to the results. Operating revenues for the third quarter were just over $6.5 billion, up nearly 5% from the same period last year and a third quarter record. Despite the recent uptick in fuel prices and other inflationary pressures, we are again profitable with net income of $240 million, excluding special items. Revenue strength was driven by solid leisure demand throughout the quarter and by managed business continuing to come in largely as expected. And Ryan will share more details with you, but overall, demand remains healthy.

    現在轉向結果。第三季營業收入略高於65億美元,比去年同期成長近5%,創第三季最高紀錄。儘管近期燃料價格上漲和其他通膨壓力,我們仍再次獲利,淨收入達到 2.4 億美元(不包括特殊項目)。整個季度穩定的休閒需求以及託管業務繼續基本上符合預期推動了收入的強勁增長。瑞安將與您分享更多細節,但總體而言,需求仍然健康。

  • As we close out this quarter and look ahead to the end of the year, we are very pleased with our accomplishments. We are running a great operation, reaching significant milestones, completing important initiatives and delivering great customer experience enhancements. We're making great progress on labor agreements, including yesterday's announcement of a tentative agreement with our incredible flight attendants. The team will walk you through many of these accomplishments, but for now, I want to talk to you about immediate actions we are taking to adapt to the current demand environment and solidify our path to operational and financial excellence.

    當我們結束本季並展望年底時,我們對我們的成就感到非常滿意。我們正在進行出色的運營,達到重要的里程碑,完成重要的計劃並提供出色的客戶體驗增強。我們在勞工協議方面取得了巨大進展,包括昨天宣布與我們出色的空服員達成的臨時協議。團隊將引導您完成其中許多成就,但現在,我想與您談談我們為適應當前需求環境並鞏固我們實現卓越營運和財務的道路而立即採取的行動。

  • Perhaps our biggest milestone is completion of our network restoration plan in the fourth quarter of this year. Reaching this milestone has obviously been a year's long effort and has taken heroic coordination across the entire organization. It's just incredibly challenging, and I am so appreciative of every single employee. It truly was a whole company accomplishment.

    也許我們最大的里程碑是今年第四季完成網路復原計畫。要達到這一里程碑顯然是經過一年的長期努力,並需要整個組織的大力協調。這是非常具有挑戰性的,我非常感謝每一位員工。這確實是整個公司的成就。

  • With this behind us, however, we are set up really well to focus on optimizing our business. That starts with reflowing the fleet order book to support orderly growth. And to that end, we just announced a new order book with our partner, Boeing, yet another milestone. This sets us up for orderly and measured growth and gives us flexibility to adapt in a dynamic environment and we have a lot of options as we move forward, and we will plan in a way that allows us both the flexibility to move up or down, and this order book, combined with opportunities to retire -700 and modernize our fleet supports that really well.

    然而,有了這些,我們就可以專注於優化我們的業務。首先是重新調整船隊訂單以支援有序增長。為此,我們剛剛與我們的合作夥伴波音公司宣布了新的訂單,這是另一個里程碑。這為我們實現有序和可衡量的成長奠定了基礎,並使我們能夠靈活地適應動態環境,並且在前進時我們有很多選擇,我們將以一種允許我們靈活地向上或向下移動的方式進行規劃,這個訂單,加上 -700 退役和機隊現代化的機會,很好地支持了這一點。

  • Finally, as we move into 2024, we are carefully evaluating the current macro environment and post-pandemic travel behaviors to create the best possible plan for the company. We are now planning for a sequential quarter-over-quarter decline in nominal ASMs in the first quarter of 2024. This will result in capacity growth on a year-over-year basis of approximately 10% to 12%, all of which is carryover from growth this year. Note that this is a reduction from what we shared in July, which was an expectation to grow approximately 14% to 16% on a year-over-year basis. In the back half of 2024, we expect a nominal decline in seats relative to the same period in 2023. Therefore, the full year -- for the full year, our network plan will focus on absorbing current capacity, maturing development markets and designing schedules for current travel patterns.

    最後,進入2024年,我們正在仔細評估當前的宏觀環境和疫情後的出行行為,為公司製定最佳的計畫。我們現在計劃 2024 年第一季名義 ASM 環比下降。這將導致產能同比增長約 10% 至 12%,所有這些都是結轉從今年的增長來看。請注意,這比我們 7 月分享的數據有所減少,我們預計將年增約 14% 至 16%。 2024年下半年,我們預期座位數相對於2023年同期會出現名義上的下降。因此,全年-全年,我們的網路計畫將重點放在吸收現有運力、成熟的開發市場和設計時間表上。針對當前的旅行模式。

  • This plan offers us the ability to redirect the teams that have worked so effectively to get a staff and restored to now focus on better optimizing the operation. We will be relentless in our focus to bring out inefficiencies, drive productivity, increase reliability and our goal to return margins to historic levels. We are still hard at work on both our 2024 and long-term plans, but we are building them with a priority and a focus on generating value, value for employees, value for our customers and, of course, value for our shareholders.

    該計劃使我們能夠重新調整那些一直有效地工作以招募員工的團隊,並恢復現在專注於更好地優化營運。我們將堅持不懈地致力於消除效率低下、提高生產力、提高可靠性,並實現將利潤率恢復到歷史水平的目標。我們仍在努力製定 2024 年計劃和長期計劃,但我們在製定這些計劃時會優先考慮並專注於創造價值、為員工創造價值、為客戶創造價值,當然還有為股東創造價值。

  • And with that, I will turn the call over to Tammy.

    然後,我會將電話轉給塔米。

  • Tammy Romo - Executive VP & CFO

    Tammy Romo - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thank you, Bob, and hello, everyone. First, I'd like to extend another thanks to our wonderful employees for their continued hard work this year, especially in a challenging environment. Ryan and Andrew will speak to our revenue trends and operational performance, so I will jump right to cost.

    謝謝你,鮑勃,大家好。首先,我要再次感謝我們優秀的員工今年的持續努力,特別是在充滿挑戰的環境中。瑞安和安德魯將談論我們的收入趨勢和營運績效,所以我將直接跳到成本。

  • Beginning with fuel, our third quarter jet fuel price was $2.78 per gallon towards the higher end of our guidance as crude oil prices consistently rose throughout the quarter, peaking to nearly $100 per barrel in late September and rising refinery margins added further pressure to our third quarter fuel price.

    從燃油開始,我們第三季的航空燃油價格為每加侖2.78 美元,接近我們指引的高端,因為原油價格在整個季度持續上漲,在9 月底達到每桶近100 美元的峰值,而煉油廠利潤率的上升給我們第三季的航空燃油價格帶來了進一步的壓力。季度燃油價格。

  • Moving into fourth quarter, we currently estimate our fuel price to be in the $2.90 to $3 per gallon range, which includes an estimated $0.19 of hedging gains. We now estimate our full year 2023 fuel price to be in the $2.85 to $2.95 per gallon range, including $0.14 of hedging gains. The total fair market value of our fuel hedge portfolio for fourth quarter through 2026 is $538 million. We added modestly to our fuel hedge position for 2026 during third quarter. We continue to be roughly 50% hedged in 2023 and are currently 55% hedged in 2024, in line with our goal to be roughly 50% hedged in each calendar year.

    進入第四季度,我們目前估計燃料價格在每加侖 2.90 美元至 3 美元範圍內,其中包括估計 0.19 美元的對沖收益。我們現在預計 2023 年全年燃油價格將在每加侖 2.85 美元至 2.95 美元的範圍內,其中包括 0.14 美元的對沖收益。截至 2026 年第四季度,我們的燃料對沖投資組合的總公平市價為 5.38 億美元。我們在第三季適度增加了 2026 年的燃料對沖部位。我們在 2023 年繼續進行約 50% 的對沖,目前在 2024 年進行 55% 的對沖,這符合我們每個日曆年進行約 50% 的對沖目標。

  • While we are not immune to rising oil prices, I am grateful that our hedging positions relieve some of the additional pressure. We continue to look for prudent opportunities to build out our hedge positions for future years.

    雖然我們不能免受油價上漲的影響,但我很高興我們的對沖部位減輕了一些額外的壓力。我們將繼續尋找謹慎的機會來建立未來幾年的對沖頭寸。

  • Moving to nonfuel costs. Our third quarter year-over-year CASM-X increase of 4.4% was right in line with our previous guidance range driven primarily by higher labor rates for all employee work groups and the timing of planned maintenance expenses.

    轉向非燃料成本。我們第三季 CASM-X 年成長 4.4%,與我們先前的指導範圍一致,這主要是由於所有員工工作小組的人工費率上升以及計劃維護費用的時間安排所致。

  • Looking ahead to fourth quarter, we currently estimate our CASM-X to decrease significantly year-over-year. There is a lot of noise in the year-over-year comparisons and the magnitude of the decrease is primarily due to impacts from elevated operating expenses and lower capacity levels in fourth quarter 2022 as a result of last year's operational disruption. Our guidance range is inclusive of wage rate increases associated with the recently announced tentative agreement with our flight attendants. You can find additional details in this morning's press release.

    展望第四季度,我們目前預期 CASM-X 將年比大幅下降。年比比較中存在許多噪音,下降幅度主要是由於去年營運中斷導致 2022 年第四季營運費用增加和產能水準下降的影響。我們的指導範圍包括與最近宣布的與空服員的臨時協議相關的工資上漲。您可以在今天上午的新聞稿中找到更多詳細資訊。

  • Given inflationary pressures, particularly labor rates, combined with moderated capacity growth, we are expecting increased headwinds to our 2024 year-over-year cost. While we hit major milestones this year, our margins are not where they need to be and we intend to be relentless until we deliver. We therefore plan to adapt our network and capacity plans to support both a reliable operation and improved returns on investments. Given our company's commitment and history towards maintaining a competitive cost advantage, our goal will always be to manage costs accordingly.

    鑑於通膨壓力,特別是勞動力價格,加上產能成長放緩,我們預計 2024 年成本將年比將面臨更大阻力。雖然我們今年實現了重大里程碑,但我們的利潤率尚未達到所需水平,我們打算堅持不懈,直到實現目標。因此,我們計劃調整我們的網路和容量計劃,以支援可靠的營運和提高投資回報。鑑於我們公司對維持競爭性成本優勢的承諾和歷史,我們的目標始終是相應地管理成本。

  • Now turning to our fleet. During the third quarter, we received a total of 18 -8 deliveries and retired four -700s, ending the quarter with a fleet of 817 total aircraft. And we just finalized a new order book with Boeing, which funds our long-term mid-single-digit growth plan and provides us the ability to phase out the -700 fleet over time. But really, it gives us just a lot of flexibility. We provided full details on the new order book in this morning's release. We now expect to receive 85 -8s this year and plan to retire 41 -700s. This leaves our net expected increase of 44 aircraft unchanged from our previous guidance. Taking all this into consideration, our 2023 CapEx outlook remains approximately $3.5 billion.

    現在轉向我們的艦隊。第三季度,我們共交付了 18 架 -8 飛機,並退役了 4 架 -700 飛機,本季末機隊共有 817 架飛機。我們剛剛與波音公司敲定了一份新訂單,該訂單為我們的長期中個位數增長計劃提供資金,並使我們有能力隨著時間的推移逐步淘汰 -700 機隊。但實際上,它給了我們很大的彈性。我們在今天早上的新聞稿中提供了有關新訂單的完整詳細資訊。我們現在預計今年將接收 85 架 -8,並計劃退役 41 架 -700。這使得我們預計淨增加 44 架飛機與先前的指導保持不變。考慮到所有這些因素,我們 2023 年的資本支出前景仍然約為 35 億美元。

  • Looking to 2024, reiterating what Bob shared, we are planning for capacity levels that better match the current environment. We now expect 2024 capacity to be up 6% to 8% year-over-year. With our new order book, we have the fleet flexibility we need to organize the company around a disciplined financial plan, one, that we can adjust up or down to adapt to the current environment. We continue to expect our 5-year capital spending on average to be in line with our previous guidance of roughly $4 billion per year.

    展望 2024 年,重申 Bob 分享的內容,我們正在規劃更適合當前環境的容量水準。我們現在預計 2024 年產能將年增 6% 至 8%。有了新的訂單,我們就擁有了圍繞嚴格的財務計劃組織公司所需的船隊靈活性,其中之一就是我們可以向上或向下調整以適應當前的環境。我們仍然預計 5 年平均資本支出將與我們之前每年約 40 億美元的指導一致。

  • Lastly, our balance sheet remains strong. We are the only U.S. airline with an investment-grade rating by all 3 rating agencies. We have $11.7 billion in cash and short-term investments, and we continue to be in a net cash position. Year-to-date, we have returned more than $400 million to our shareholders through dividend payments and made debt repayments of nearly $80 million. Closing out the year, we expect to pay a modest $7 million in scheduled debt repayments and continue to expect our 2023 interest income to more than offset 2023 interest expense.

    最後,我們的資產負債表仍然強勁。我們是唯一獲得全部 3 個評級機構投資等級的美國航空公司。我們擁有 117 億美元的現金和短期投資,並且繼續保持淨現金狀況。年初至今,我們已透過股息支付向股東返還超過 4 億美元,並償還了近 8,000 萬美元的債務。在今年結束時,我們預計將按計劃償還 700 萬美元的適度債務,並繼續預計 2023 年的利息收入將超過 2023 年的利息支出。

  • Let me close by saying, I am tremendously proud of our people and their hard work. As we look ahead, it is imperative we remain focused on building our 2024 plans and beyond to provide a resolute path to prosperity for our company, our employees and our shareholders. We have a history that proves we do not rest on our laurels, and I'm confident we have all the elements needed to bring about the success you should expect from Southwest Airlines.

    最後我要說的是,我為我們的員工和他們的辛勤工作感到無比自豪。展望未來,我們必須繼續專注於制定 2024 年及以後的計劃,為我們的公司、員工和股東提供一條通往繁榮的堅定道路。我們的歷史證明我們不會固步自封,我相信我們擁有實現西南航空所期望的成功所需的所有要素。

  • And with that, I will turn it over to Ryan.

    有了這個,我會把它交給瑞安。

  • Ryan C. Green - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

    Ryan C. Green - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

  • Thank you, Tammy. I'm going to walk through a review of our third quarter revenue results, provide context for our fourth quarter outlook and share some exciting commercial updates with you today. For additional detail on our revenue performance, please see this morning's earnings release. Starting with third quarter. Demand continues to be healthy. Operating revenue was a third quarter record of just over $6.5 billion. And on a year-over-year basis, operating revenue was up nearly 5%, and that's on a tough compare period given pent-up domestic travel was still underway last year. When you compare revenue performance versus third quarter of 2019, operating revenue is up nearly 16% on 12% capacity growth. Also, average fares were up 2.6% year-over-year and are up over 7% over third quarter 2019. So while we have work to do to cover our unit cost challenges, I am pleased we are moving in the right direction.

    謝謝你,塔米。我今天將回顧我們第三季度的收入結果,為我們第四季度的前景提供背景信息,並與您分享一些令人興奮的商業動態。有關我們收入表現的更多詳細信息,請參閱今天上午的收益報告。從第三季開始。需求持續健康。第三季營業收入略高於 65 億美元,創歷史新高。與去年同期相比,營業收入成長了近 5%,考慮到去年被壓抑的國內旅行仍在進行,這是一個艱難的比較時期。當您將營收表現與 2019 年第三季進行比較時,營運收入成長了近 16%,產能成長了 12%。此外,平均票價年增 2.6%,較 2019 年第三季上漲超過 7%。因此,儘管我們需要努力應對單位成本挑戰,但我很高興我們正在朝著正確的方向前進。

  • The nearly 5% operating revenue growth year-over-year on a capacity increase of 12.5% had unit revenue or RASM declining 6.8% for the third quarter of 2023. July 4 and Labor Day travel came right in line with our expectations. However, bookings for nonpeak August and September, while stable came in at the lower end of our expectations. This performance aligns with fall start dates for primary and secondary schools continuing to shift earlier in much of the country. For example, in our markets, 1/3 of schools were back in session by the second week of August, which is nearly double what it was pre-pandemic, and nearly 95% of schools were back before the Labor Day weekend.

    2023 年第三季度,營運收入年增近 5%,運力增加 12.5%,單位收入或 RASM 下降 6.8%。7 月 4 日和勞動節旅行正好符合我們的預期。然而,八月和九月非高峰期的預訂量雖然穩定,但仍低於我們預期。這一表現與全國大部分地區中小學秋季開學日期繼續提前的情況一致。例如,在我們的市場中,到 8 月第二週,1/3 的學校已恢復上課,幾乎是疫情前的兩倍,近 95% 的學校在勞動節週末之前恢復上課。

  • We are planning for these back-to-school trends to continue as we work on our August 2024 capacity plans. In addition, we had multiple records set from our ancillary products and our loyalty program. We had an all-time best quarter for ancillary revenue with 24% year-over-year growth and Rapid Rewards set a third quarter record for revenue generated from the program. New Rapid Rewards member acquisitions were a quarterly record, and the number of engaged members grew 10% on a year-over-year basis.

    我們計劃在製定 2024 年 8 月容量計劃時繼續保持這些返校趨勢。此外,我們的輔助產品和忠誠度計劃也創下了多項記錄。我們的輔助收入創下了歷史最佳季度記錄,年增 24%,Rapid Rewards 也創下了該計劃第三季的營收記錄。 Rapid Rewards 新會員數創下季度新高,參與會員數量較去年同期成長 10%。

  • Rapid Rewards point redemptions were up 16% compared to the same period last year, and retail spend on our co-brand Chase credit card was also a third quarter record. Our customers love the benefits they get from the card as evidenced by our low cardholder attrition, which continues to be below pre-pandemic levels. Overall, we see a resilient consumer and high engagement with the Southwest Airlines brand. Consumer spending trends still favor services, particularly travel experiences, and we expect that will continue.

    Rapid Rewards 積分兌換量比去年同期成長了 16%,我們的聯合品牌 Chase 信用卡的零售支出也創下了第三季的紀錄。我們的客戶非常喜歡從該卡中獲得的好處,持卡人流失率較低(持續低於疫情前的水平)就證明了這一點。總體而言,我們看到了有彈性的消費者以及對西南航空品牌的高度參與。消費者支出趨勢仍然青睞服務,尤其是旅行體驗,我們預計這種情況將持續下去。

  • Moving to the fourth quarter. We're seeing a continuation of healthy leisure booking demand and stable business travel patterns. As a result, we expect a nominal sequential increase in operating revenue resulting in record fourth quarter revenue and passengers, which would bring us to 3 consecutive quarters of record operating revenue. October performance has been strong to date, and bookings for the holidays as a whole are also strong.

    轉到第四季。我們看到健康的休閒預訂需求和穩定的商務旅行模式持續存在。因此,我們預計營業收入將出現名義上的環比增長,從而導致第四季度的收入和乘客量創歷史新高,這將使我們連續三個季度創紀錄的營業收入。迄今為止,十月份的表現一直很強勁,整個假期的預訂量也很強勁。

  • RASM, however, continues to be impacted by higher than seasonally normal capacity, driven by our network restoration plan, a larger-than-normal investment in development markets, and business travel that while improving is still below historical levels. We also expect the close-in leisure trends we saw in non-peak August and September will persist into the non-holiday periods of the fourth quarter and our guidance range does contemplate potential challenges from this year's holiday placement, including the expectation that a portion of return travel will spill into January.

    然而,RASM 繼續受到高於季節性正常運力的影響,這是由我們的網路復原計劃、對開發市場的超額投資以及商務旅行(雖然有所改善,但仍低於歷史水平)推動的。我們也預計,我們在 8 月和 9 月非高峰期看到的近距離休閒趨勢將持續到第四季度的非假期期間,我們的指導範圍確實考慮了今年假期安排的潛在挑戰,包括預計部分的回程旅行將延續到一月。

  • I am encouraged, however, that we have higher booked load factors for the December holiday period this year than we had at the same point last year, which indicates to me we're not experiencing significant book away as a result of last year's operational disruption. All in, we expect RASM in the fourth quarter to finish down 9% to 11% on a year-over-year basis on capacity up approximately 21%.

    然而,令我感到鼓舞的是,今年 12 月假期期間的預訂負載率高於去年同期,這表明我們並沒有因去年的營運中斷而出現大量預訂流失的情況。總而言之,我們預計第四季 RASM 將年減 9% 至 11%,而容量則成長約 21%。

  • Again, we are steadfastly committed to addressing RASM performance to ensure a revenue plan that is appropriate for the current demand and cost environment. In the near term, we are continuing to execute a strategy of fair sale campaigns to address low-demand flights with meaningful advanced purchase requirements. This helps build load factor and suboptimal capacity without impacting higher demand flights or diluting close-in yield strength.

    我們再次堅定地致力於解決 RASM 效能問題,以確保收入計畫適合當前的需求和成本環境。短期內,我們將繼續執行公平銷售活動策略,以解決具有有意義的提前購買要求的低需求航班。這有助於建立載客率和次優運力,而不會影響更高需求的航班或稀釋近距離產量強度。

  • Looking to 2024, as Bob mentioned, we will address RASM by moderating capacity to better match demand and optimizing our schedules to accommodate current travel behaviors. Our current set of strategic initiatives, including GDS participation and the new revenue management system, will also contribute incremental pretax profits to 2024 as they mature and hit their full run rates.

    展望 2024 年,正如 Bob 所提到的,我們將透過調整運能以更好地滿足需求並優化我們的時間表以適應當前的旅行行為來解決 RASM。我們目前的一系列策略性舉措,包括 GDS 參與和新的收入管理系統,隨著它們的成熟並達到滿載運行率,也將為 2024 年貢獻增量稅前利潤。

  • Finally, we're tireless in working to make customer experience on Southwest Airlines even better and drive even more loyalty from our customers. Earlier this month, we announced several exciting updates and the first involves several enhancements to our award-winning Rapid Rewards program. We will add the ability for customers to combine Rapid Reward points with cash next spring, which increases the ubiquity of our loyalty currency and makes it easier to book additional flights on Southwest Airlines. We also made it easier to reach our A-List and A-List preferred levels in 2024, and are looking to reward our customers for their loyalty and entice them to fly with us whenever they travel. We have an imperative to win more customers and drive more travel from our most frequent travelers and these enhancements are designed to give them even more reasons to choose Southwest Airlines.

    最後,我們不懈地努力讓西南航空的客戶體驗變得更好,並提高客戶的忠誠度。本月早些時候,我們宣布了幾項令人興奮的更新,其中第一個涉及對我們屢獲殊榮的快速獎勵計劃的多項增強。明年春天,我們將增加客戶將快速獎勵積分與現金結合的功能,這將提高我們的忠誠貨幣的普及性,並使預訂西南航空的其他航班變得更加容易。我們也讓 2024 年更容易達到我們的 A-List 和 A-List 首選級別,並希望獎勵我們客戶的忠誠度,並吸引他們在旅行時搭乘我們的航班。我們必須贏得更多客戶並吸引最常出行的旅客進行更多旅行,這些增強功能旨在讓他們有更多理由選擇西南航空。

  • We also launched a new product for our corporate customers last week that will help us continue to grow our market share in the managed travel space. Our new product streamlines the process to book group travel for meetings, incentives and conventions, which is one of the fastest-growing segments in the managed travel space. I'm very pleased with the response of the product so far, as we already have millions of dollars in travel booked on the new tool in just the first few days.

    上週我們也為企業客戶推出了一款新產品,這將有助於我們繼續擴大在管理旅行領域的市場佔有率。我們的新產品簡化了會議、獎勵旅遊和會議團體旅行的預訂流程,這是管理旅行領域中成長最快的細分市場之一。我對產品迄今為止的反應非常滿意,因為在最初的幾天內,我們已經透過新工具預訂了數百萬美元的旅行。

  • Finally, we recently introduced customer bag tracking, which gives our customers the ability to track their checked bags throughout their day of travel both at the airport and in flight. This improvement was one of the investments we accelerated following last December's disruption. By providing additional transparency and information to customers about where their bags are during their travel journey, we're elevating the travel experience and removing friction for our customers. This enhancement is an early release of our larger digital hospitality modernization plan. So congratulations to the teams that worked so hard to bring these great enhancements and solutions to market for our customers.

    最後,我們最近推出了客戶行李追蹤功能,使我們的客戶能夠在一天的機場和飛行中追蹤他們的托運行李。這項改進是我們在去年 12 月的中斷之後加速的投資之一。透過向客戶提供有關其行李在旅行途中的位置的額外透明度和信息,我們正在提升客戶的旅行體驗並消除摩擦。這項增強功能是我們更大的數位飯店現代化計畫的早期發布。因此,祝賀那些辛勤工作的團隊,他們為我們的客戶將這些出色的增強功能和解決方案推向市場。

  • Ultimately, we have to continue to win customers while taking into account the challenges of higher cost inputs as we build both our long-term commercial strategies and our near-term revenue plans, and we're committed to doing just that.

    最終,我們必須繼續贏得客戶,同時在製定長期商業策略和近期收入計劃時考慮到更高成本投入的挑戰,我們致力於做到這一點。

  • With that, I'll turn it over to Andrew.

    這樣,我就把它交給安德魯。

  • Andrew M. Watterson - COO

    Andrew M. Watterson - COO

  • Thank you, Ryan, and hello, everyone. I'm going to wrap up our prepared remarks with a brief overview of our operational performance, an update on our winter operations action plan and some additional details on our capacity and network plans for next year.

    謝謝你,瑞安,大家好。我將簡要概述我們的營運業績、更新我們的冬季營運行動計劃以及有關我們明年的產能和網路計劃的一些其他詳細信息,以結束我們準備好的發言。

  • Before I dive into those details, I want to commend both negotiating committees that work diligently on incentive agreement just reach with our flight attendants, which will be voted on by our employees soon. This agreement offers industry-leading compensation increases and quality of life enhancements. I'm very pleased with our strong improvements in operational performance and very appreciative of our Southwest warriors. We saw broad-based improvements in our operating metrics, which are recognized by our customers through increased trip Net Promoter Scores. Our early morning originators, turn compliance and turn differential, completion factor, mishandled bag rate, long delay rate and on-time performance, all showed substantial year-over-year improvement.

    在深入討論這些細節之前,我想讚揚兩個談判委員會,他們在與我們的空服員達成的激勵協議上勤奮工作,該協議很快將由我們的員工進行投票。該協議提供了行業領先的薪酬增長和生活品質的提高。我對我們營運績效的大幅提升感到非常滿意,也非常欣賞我們的西南勇士。我們看到我們的營運指標有了廣泛的改善,這透過旅行淨推薦值的增加得到了客戶的認可。我們的清晨始發機、轉彎順應性和轉彎差異、完成率、誤處理行李率、長時間延誤率和準點率均表現出年比大幅改善。

  • If not for longer-than-anticipated block times from congestion, weather and runway construction, our performance would have been even better. All of this resulted in a trip Net Promoter Score that is nearly 4 points higher than last year. That is certainly driven by our proven reliability, but also our customer experience initiatives, including our improved WiFi. We're excited about the solid trend in the right direction. It gives us lots of reasons to be optimistic about 2024.

    如果不是因為擁擠、天氣和跑道施工造成的阻塞時間比預期更長,我們的表現會更好。所有這些使得旅行淨推薦值比去年高出近 4 分。這當然是由我們久經考驗的可靠性以及我們的客戶體驗計劃(包括我們改進的 WiFi)所推動的。我們對朝著正確方向發展的堅實趨勢感到興奮。這讓我們有許多理由對 2024 年持樂觀態度。

  • And speaking of the right direction, I'm excited to share an update on our winter preparedness. The disruption we had last winter was really hard on our customers and our employees. It weighed heavily on all of us here at Southwest Airlines. We have a lot of pride based on our 50-plus year history. So preparing to prevent something like that from happening again was and is imperative.

    說到正確的方向,我很高興分享我們冬季準備的最新情況。去年冬天我們遭受的干擾對我們的客戶和員工來說確實很艱難。這對西南航空的所有人來說都是沉重的負擔。基於我們 50 多年的歷史,我們感到非常自豪。因此,做好準備防止類似事情再次發生是當務之急。

  • Of course, the disruption was triggered by an unprecedented storm that simultaneously hit several of our most critical stations. But there were many causes, not just one that led to it. As a result, our action plan is divided into 3 categories: winter operations, cross-team collaboration, and accelerating operational investments, which were already on our road map, including technology.

    當然,這次中斷是由一場史無前例的風暴同時襲擊了我們幾個最關鍵的車站引發的。但造成這種情況的原因有很多,不只是一個原因。因此,我們的行動計畫分為三類:冬季營運、跨團隊協作和加速營運投資,這些已經在我們的路線圖上,包括科技。

  • One thing that really impacted us with Elliott is that 25% of our crew are based in Denver and Chicago. When we are unable to maintain sufficient throughput during winter operations, we can't get our crew out into the network. When this happens, it puts great stress on our crew network, which is what happened with Elliott. So a key part of our action plan is to have more robust winter operations, so we can be confident that we get our crews out in the network to operate through bad weather. So we invest in key stations. Based on calculated throughput needed to maintain our crude network, we have added deice pads, deice trucks, increased glycol storage and mixing stations, increased snow removal, heater carts and other equipment to operate safely and effectively in winter weather.

    真正對 Elliott 產生影響的一件事是,我們 25% 的工作人員位於丹佛和芝加哥。當我們無法在冬季營運期間保持足夠的吞吐量時,我們就無法讓我們的工作人員進入網路。當這種情況發生時,會給我們的船員網絡帶來巨大的壓力,埃利奧特就發生了這種情況。因此,我們行動計劃的關鍵部分是進行更強勁的冬季運營,這樣我們就有信心讓我們的工作人員在網路中在惡劣天氣下進行運營。所以我們對重點站點進行投資。根據維護原油網路所需的計算吞吐量,我們增加了除冰墊、除冰卡車、乙二醇儲存和混合站、除雪、加熱器車和其他設備,以便在冬季安全有效地運作。

  • We have been conducting deicing summer school to make sure we have plenty of ramp agents trained and ready to go for deicing. That's just a few examples of tangible things we have done. We are now so much better prepared for these extreme weather events. Moving to cross-team collaboration, we now have our network planning and network operations teams under the same organization allowing them to work together to make the best decisions quickly. We have formed a special operating group called the network disruption pod to coordinate decision-making in our control center when there are high-risk disruption events, and I've used this group for events of summer.

    我們一直在舉辦除冰暑期學校,以確保我們有足夠的停機坪工作人員經過培訓並準備好進行除冰。這只是我們所做的一些具體事情的例子。我們現在已經為這些極端天氣事件做好了更好的準備。轉向跨團隊協作,我們現在在同一組織下擁有網路規劃和網路營運團隊,使他們能夠共同工作以快速做出最佳決策。我們成立了一個名為網路中斷小組的特殊操作小組,以在發生高風險中斷事件時協調控制中心的決策,我在夏季的事件中使用了該小組。

  • Additionally, we have conducted multiple operations wide tabletop exercises, often called war games involving winter weather scenarios to prepare our teams for the season. And we have talked a lot already about the immediate modernization of an enhancement to our systems. Early on, there was a misconception that technology problems caused an operational disruption. It was the opposite. Operational problems caused technology problems.

    此外,我們還進行了多次作戰範圍的桌面演習,通常稱為涉及冬季天氣場景的戰爭遊戲,為我們的團隊做好本賽季的準備。我們已經討論了很多關於我們系統增強功能的立即現代化的問題。在早期,人們存在一種誤解,認為技術問題導致了營運中斷。事實恰恰相反。操作問題引發了技術問題。

  • Since the disruption, we've bolstered those systems with upgrades to address the specific issues we experienced during winter storm Elliott. We're also rolling out a proprietary new system that is unique in the industry. I take the crew-first approach when developing solutions to large-scale irregular operations. I share all that detail and really those are just a few examples to demonstrate the level of action we have taken where -- better than ever and feel confident as we go into the holiday -- winter holiday travel season.

    自中斷以來,我們透過升級來支援這些系統,以解決我們在冬季風暴埃利奧特期間遇到的具體問題。我們也推出了業界獨一無二的專有新系統。在開發大規模不規則行動的解決方案時,我採取機組人員優先的方法。我分享了所有這些細節,實際上,這些只是幾個例子,以展示我們所採取的行動水平——比以往任何時候都更好,並且在我們進入假期時充滿信心——冬季假期旅行季節。

  • Finally, I'll wrap up by talking a little bit more about what we're doing with capacity and the network next year to ensure that we're on a path to operational and financial excellence. Going back to April, we committed to orderly and measured growth. Stable growth helps us regain efficiency, absorb our hiring, mature workforce and improve our operational performance. We also have to take into consideration demand levels and travel patterns as we determine our growth and build our network. As we develop our 2024 capacity set, we are doing exactly that. In the past couple of years, we focus on growth to restore our network and fully utilize our fleet. That, combined with business travel trends and our investments in Hawaii in new cities has created challenges to our current unit revenue performance. Therefore, as we look to 2024, we are moderating our capacity, which will allow the growth to be absorbed.

    最後,我將更多地談論我們明年在容量和網路方面所做的事情,以確保我們走上卓越營運和財務的道路。回到四月份,我們致力於有序、有節制的成長。穩定的成長有助於我們恢復效率、吸收人才、成熟的勞動力並提高我們的營運績效。在確定我們的成長和建立我們的網路時,我們還必須考慮需求水準和旅行模式。當我們開發 2024 年產能集時,我們正是這樣做的。在過去幾年中,我們專注於成長以恢復我們的網路並充分利用我們的機隊。再加上商務旅行趨勢以及我們在夏威夷新城市的投資,為我們目前的單位收入表現帶來了挑戰。因此,展望 2024 年,我們正在調整產能,以便吸收成長。

  • And as we shared last quarter, we are taking actions to accelerate the maturation of our developing markets and to optimize our schedules to current travel patterns. The most recent examples at today's announcement, they were shifting the bulk of the international service in Fort Lauderdale to Orlando. This will offer better connectivity in our domestic network via the nearly 140 daily departures at MCO.

    正如我們上季度分享的那樣,我們正在採取行動加速發展中市場的成熟,並根據當前的旅行模式優化我們的日程安排。今天宣布的最新例子是,他們將把勞德代爾堡的大部分國際服務轉移到奧蘭多。這將透過 MCO 每天近 140 趟的出發航班,為我們的國內網路提供更好的連線。

  • We are fully committed to delivering on a plan that enables operational excellence, improves operational efficiency and reiterating what Bob said at the beginning of the call, that generates value for our employees, customers and shareholders.

    我們完全致力於實施一項能夠實現卓越營運、提高營運效率的計劃,並重申鮑伯在電話會議開始時所說的話,為我們的員工、客戶和股東創造價值。

  • And with that, I'll turn it back over to Julia.

    有了這個,我會把它轉回給朱莉婭。

  • Julia Landrum

    Julia Landrum

  • Thank you, Andrew. We have analysts queued up for questions. (Operator Instructions) Please go ahead and begin our analyst Q&A.

    謝謝你,安德魯。我們有分析師排隊提問。 (操作員說明)請繼續開始我們的分析師問答。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Savi Syth from Raymond James.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Savi Syth。

  • Savanthi Nipunika Prelis-Syth - Airlines Analyst

    Savanthi Nipunika Prelis-Syth - Airlines Analyst

  • Good afternoon. If I might, on the 2024 plan, you talked about inflationary kind of headwinds to unit costs. And you historically don't necessarily adjust capacity once kind of schedules are loaded. I was wondering if you could provide a little bit more color on how we should think about unit costs in 2024? Is this going to be up year-over-year and just some of the kind of the bigger drivers of the unit cost trends?

    午安.可以的話,在 2024 年計畫中,您談到了單位成本的通膨阻力。從歷史上看,一旦加載了某種時間表,您就不一定要調整容量。我想知道您能否就我們應該如何考慮 2024 年的單位成本提供更多資訊?這是否會逐年上升,並且只是單位成本趨勢的一些更大驅動因素?

  • Robert E. Jordan - CEO, President & Director

    Robert E. Jordan - CEO, President & Director

  • Savi, it's Bob. Thanks for the question. And I want to start just first with just kind of how -- where we are with the quarter. I mean, the quarter was really solid. I mean, record operating revenues, passengers, Rapid Reward program revenues, retail spend on the card, new members in the program. So I mean, just really pleased with the quarter. And obviously, another accomplishment was restoring the network and getting all of our aircraft flying. So we do have higher sequential capacity and just higher capacity general than typical.

    薩維,是鮑伯。謝謝你的提問。我想先從我們本季的進展開始。我的意思是,這個季度的表現非常強勁。我的意思是,記錄營運收入、乘客、快速獎勵計畫收入、卡片上的零售支出、計畫中的新會員。所以我的意思是,對這個季度非常滿意。顯然,另一項成就是恢復網路並讓我們所有的飛機都能飛行。因此,我們確實擁有比典型更高的順序容量和更高的整體容量。

  • And as you know, travel patterns are changing for -- while it's still strong, they're changing for leisure, but they're also changing for business as the -- we're seeing gains, but that last 10 to 15 points of business recovery is a little bit stubborn here. So we are working on capacity. Don't want to be slaves to capacity here. So we're going in and we are reducing the first quarter.

    如您所知,旅行模式正在發生變化,雖然仍然強勁,但它們正在改變為休閒,但它們也正在改變為商務,因為我們看到了收益,但最後 10 到 15 個百分點這裡的業務復甦有點頑固。所以我們正在努力提高產能。不想在這裡成為能力的奴隸。因此,我們將減少第一季的業績。

  • The shoulder periods are just tougher, January and February. We're not ready to talk about the whole 2024 plan. We're working on that right now very diligently. But our overall planning capacity for the year has come down to the 6% to 8% range which is essentially all carryover from the restored capacity in '23, just carrying over into '24. But that's going to result in things like phenomenal seats in the back half of next year that will actually be down as compared to 2022.

    一月和二月的肩膀時期更加艱難。我們還沒有準備好談論整個 2024 年計劃。我們現在正在非常努力地致力於此。但我們今年的總體規劃產能已降至 6% 至 8% 的範圍,基本上都是 23 年恢復產能的結轉,只是結轉至 24 年。但這將導致明年下半年的驚人席位實際上會比 2022 年下降。

  • So I just want to set the -- sort of lay the groundwork for how we're thinking about capacity, it's all about 2 things. It's about maturing and absorbing the capacity that we have restored in '23 and in '24. That's really how we're thinking about capacity. As you pull down capacity, that will create pressure, obviously, on cost. It always does. We're still working on our plan. We're going to work both sides of the equation. We're going to work on the cost and the efficiency plan here. We've got a lot of opportunity to drive out efficiencies as we slow the growth and focus on pulling down our hiring and getting folks out of training, all those kinds of things. But we're going to work the revenue side as well. But yes, I just would admit that does put a little bit of pressure on our cost as we pull down capacity always does.

    所以我只是想為我們如何思考容量奠定基礎,這與兩件事有關。這是關於成熟和吸收我們在 23 年和 24 年恢復的能力。這確實是我們對容量的思考方式。當你降低產能時,顯然會產生成本壓力。總是如此。我們仍在製定我們的計劃。我們將同時研究等式的兩邊。我們將在這裡制定成本和效率計劃。我們有很多機會來提高效率,因為我們放慢了成長速度,並專注於減少招募和讓員工停止培訓,諸如此類。但我們也會在收入方面開展工作。但是,是的,我承認這確實給我們的成本帶來了一點壓力,因為我們總是會降低產能。

  • Tammy, if you want to say -- add anything?

    Tammy,如果你想說的話——加什麼?

  • Tammy Romo - Executive VP & CFO

    Tammy Romo - Executive VP & CFO

  • You covered everything really well, Bob. Just, Savi, to give you maybe just a little more color on where we're seeing the obvious cost pressures. Clearly, as we've wrapped up a lot of agreements this year with our labor group, we have seen more inflation than normal in labor, and that's driven by the higher wage rates. And we've been, as you know, occurring for those throughout the year.

    鮑勃,你把所有事情都講得很好。薩維,只是為了讓您對我們所看到的明顯成本壓力有更多的了解。顯然,隨著我們今年與勞工團體簽署了許多協議,我們看到勞動力的通膨率高於正常水平,而這是由工資率上升所推動的。如您所知,我們全年都在發生這些事情。

  • And then outside of our labor, where we'll see some inflationary pressures in maintenance as our 800 fleet is coming off of the holiday. So I just wanted you to keep that in mind that wind down. But we are very -- all that said, we are focused in on our 2024 plan. We are going to work really hard here to drive efficiencies and certainly leverage our network opportunities. So a little premature to give you guidance for the year, but we're going to keep working really hard on our plan here to manage our CASM-X cost going forward. And we haven't backed off of our Investor Day, what we shared with you at our 2022 Investor Day. Our longer-term goal is to grow CASM-X in the low single-digit range, and that would be on mid-single-digit capacity growth.

    然後,在我們的勞動力之外,隨著我們的 800 車隊即將結束假期,我們將在維護方面看到一些通膨壓力。所以我只是想讓你在結束時記住這一點。但話雖如此,我們非常專注於我們的 2024 年計劃。我們將在這裡非常努力地提高效率,並充分利用我們的網路機會。因此,為您提供今年的指導還為時過早,但我們將繼續努力製定我們的計劃,以管理未來的 CASM-X 成本。我們並沒有放棄投資者日,我們在 2022 年投資者日與您分享了這一點。我們的長期目標是將 CASM-X 的成長維持在低個位數範圍內,即中個位數的容量成長。

  • Savanthi Nipunika Prelis-Syth - Airlines Analyst

    Savanthi Nipunika Prelis-Syth - Airlines Analyst

  • That's all very helpful. I appreciate that. Maybe kind of following up on that, just on the fleet side, I know you have a contractual fleet here. Is your kind of goal to just again take as many aircraft and then offset it with retirements? Or how should we think about the aircraft deliveries next year and maybe Boeing's ability to meet it?

    這一切都非常有幫助。我很感激。也許是跟進,就艦隊方面而言,我知道你們這裡有一支合約艦隊。您的目標是再次購買盡可能多的飛機,然後透過退役來抵銷嗎?或者我們應該如何考慮明年的飛機交付量以及波音公司是否有能力滿足這一目標?

  • Robert E. Jordan - CEO, President & Director

    Robert E. Jordan - CEO, President & Director

  • Yes. Savi, that's goal #1 with our -- we've been talking about reflowing our fleet order book with Boeing. Goal #1 was to just get to orderly steady growth in the fleet plan. I think if you look at -- we were stacking a lot of aircraft up that were delayed, and I think it pushed beyond even what you saw the plan, delivery expectation of 143, I think, in 2024, which, of course, we're not doing.

    是的。薩維,這是我們的第一目標——我們一直在討論與波音重新調整我們的機隊訂單。目標一是機隊計畫實現有序穩定成長。我想如果你看一下——我們堆積了很多被延誤的飛機,我認為這甚至超出了你所看到的計劃,我認為 2024 年交付 143 架飛機的預期,當然,我們沒有做。

  • So I'm really happy. Boeing has been a great partner. We've got a new fleet plan that takes us -- that is very orderly. It takes us through 2031 at very attractive pricing, and there is a lot of flexibility in the new order book. So we can flex up and we can flex down as you see demand trends changing both ways. Just thinking about 2023, we've been talking about, again, taking control of the order and delivery plan and planning to that in our schedules, we plan to 70 Boeing, it looks like we will now be able to take 85 this year from Boeing, and we'll just offset that directly with retirements, which, of course, is a -- that's a solid financial trade. And then our goal next year is to take 85. Tammy, do you want to add anything?

    所以我真的很高興。波音公司一直是個很好的合作夥伴。我們有一個新的艦隊計劃,非常有秩序。它以非常有吸引力的價格帶領我們度過 2031 年,並且新訂單簿具有很大的靈活性。因此,當您看到需求趨勢雙向變化時,我們可以向上彎曲,也可以向下彎曲。想想 2023 年,我們一直在談論控制訂單和交付計劃,並在我們的時間表中進行規劃,我們計劃購買 70 架波音飛機,看起來我們今年將能夠從波音,我們將直接用退休來抵消,這當然是一個可靠的金融交易。然後我們明年的目標是考 85。Tammy,你想補充什麼嗎?

  • Tammy Romo - Executive VP & CFO

    Tammy Romo - Executive VP & CFO

  • You covered it all.

    你涵蓋了這一切。

  • Robert E. Jordan - CEO, President & Director

    Robert E. Jordan - CEO, President & Director

  • But again, the new order is all about reflowing this so that the growth is orderly and steady and we have access to a lot of aircraft at attractive pricing and we have a lot of flexibility.

    但同樣,新訂單的目的是重新流動,以便成長有序和穩定,我們能夠以有吸引力的價格獲得大量飛機,並且我們有很大的靈活性。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Catherine O'Brien from Goldman Sachs.

    我們的下一個問題來自高盛的凱瑟琳·奧布萊恩。

  • Catherine Maureen O'Brien - Equity Analyst

    Catherine Maureen O'Brien - Equity Analyst

  • Maybe just a follow-up on the cost question, if you don't mind. Two things. I know you're not prepared to talk about exact guidance on 2024. I totally appreciate that the growth plans have changed. But I think last quarter, you said you were committed to driving cost down year-over-year. Do we -- are we just back at the drawing table for that? And then on the labor inflationary pressures you're talking about, I know you've been accruing this year. So what's driving that incremental into next year? Is that just wage rate increases are higher than they used to be or something else in the pay package?

    如果您不介意的話,也許只是成本問題的後續行動。兩件事情。我知道您不准備談論 2024 年的確切指導。我完全感謝增長計劃的改變。但我認為上個季度,您表示將致力於逐年降低成本。我們是否-我們剛剛回到繪圖桌前?關於你所說的勞動力通膨壓力,我知道你今年一直在承受壓力。那麼,是什麼推動了明年的增量呢?這只是薪資增幅比以前更高還是薪資方案中的其他因素?

  • Tammy Romo - Executive VP & CFO

    Tammy Romo - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, Catie. Just to give you a little more help there. It really boils down to 2 factors. One is we have moderated our capacity growth plans, and we are continuing to see labor rate pressure. And just to really take you maybe through our fourth quarter cost profile to help you as you sort of model for first quarter, if you exclude the 15-point year-over-year disruption related impact to our fourth quarter CASM-X outlook, we would actually be down 1% to 4% year-over-year. And as Bob mentioned earlier, in terms of our cost profile, while we've had some structural cost increases here, our cost advantage relative to the industry and the legacy carriers is still very much intact.

    是的,凱蒂。只是為了給你多一點幫助。這實際上可以歸結為兩個因素。一是我們已經調整了產能成長計劃,我們繼續面臨勞動力價格壓力。只是為了真正帶您了解我們的第四季度成本概況,以幫助您了解第一季度的模型,如果您排除對我們第四季度 CASM-X 前景的 15 個點的同比中斷相關影響,我們實際上會年減1%到4%。正如鮑伯之前提到的,就我們的成本狀況而言,雖然我們的結構性成本有所增加,但我們相對於產業和傳統營運商的成本優勢仍然完好無損。

  • But if you move sequentially from fourth quarter, the cost headwinds are stemming mostly from overall inflation, namely labor costs. That is our most significant inflationary factor. And despite the labor accruals, we've been recording, we still expect year-over-year pressure next year from normal annual and scale increases, as you would expect.

    但如果從第四季開始依序來看,成本阻力主要來自整體通膨,也就是勞動成本。這是我們最重要的通貨膨脹因素。儘管我們一直在記錄勞動力應計項目,但我們仍然預計明年正常的年度成長和規模成長將帶來同比壓力,正如您所期望的那樣。

  • And then just beyond those labor cost pressures, we anticipate continued year-over-year cost pressure by the accelerated depreciation related to our fleet modernization effort and already mentioned maintenance costs. So again, the key reconciling item here is the fact that we've moderated our capacity plans for next year, which does put further pressure to our unit costs.

    除了這些勞動成本壓力之外,我們預計由於與我們的機隊現代化工作和已經提到的維護成本相關的加速折舊,將持續逐年成本壓力。因此,這裡的關鍵協調事項是我們已經調整了明年的產能計劃,這確實給我們的單位成本帶來了進一步的壓力。

  • But we are not done with our 2024 plan, and we're not content with our cost outlook. So we are rolling up our sleeves and we're going to keep working on and proving that outlook. So that hopefully gives you a little bit more color into kind of the cost and what is sticky. And again, our focus now is on [ringing] out those costs inefficiencies and driving for better productivity as we moderate our growth plans next year. So we're going to stay hard at work on managing our costs, we have a great track record in doing that and we're determined to manage our costs as we have for our 50-plus history.

    但我們的 2024 年計畫尚未完成,我們對成本前景也不滿意。因此,我們正在捲起袖子,繼續努力並證明這一前景。因此,希望這能讓您對成本和黏性有更多的了解。再說一次,我們現在的重點是在我們調整明年的成長計畫的同時,消除這些低效率的成本並提高生產力。因此,我們將繼續努力管理我們的成本,我們在這方面擁有良好的記錄,並且我們決心像我們 50 多年的歷史一樣管理我們的成本。

  • Robert E. Jordan - CEO, President & Director

    Robert E. Jordan - CEO, President & Director

  • And of course, for everybody, I mean, the labor cost increases are -- that's a phenomenon we are all seeing as we all renegotiate contracts and some of the timing is different for folks, but those are going to be cost that I think you're going to see generally across the board. It always takes -- they're coming in a lump. And it always takes time to adapt to the higher cost structure as you move across a period of time.

    當然,對於每個人來說,我的意思是,勞動力成本的增加是——這是我們都看到的一種現象,因為我們都在重新談判合同,而且有些時間對人們來說是不同的,但我認為這些成本將是你的。我們將會看到整體情況。這總是需要——他們會成群結隊地到來。當你跨越一段時間時,總是需要時間來適應更高的成本結構。

  • The good thing is back to the network work, we are very committed to taking network action. We had already announced last quarter a full restructuring of the network that is going to yield over $500 million in pretax profit contribution in 2024. Beyond that now, we're moderating the first quarter. We're moderating the full year. Again, you're going to have seats in the back half of the year that are actually going to be down nominally year-over-year. And all of that is designed to match the demand to the network and match the network to the demand, which should ultimately help revenue production, help RASM production.

    好的事情是回到網路工作上來,我們非常致力於採取網路行動。我們上季已經宣布對網路進行全面重組,到 2024 年將產生超過 5 億美元的稅前利潤貢獻。除此之外,我們現在正在調整第一季的業績。我們正在對全年進行調整。同樣,今年下半年的席位實際上會同比名義上下降。所有這一切都是為了將需求與網路相匹配,並將網路與需求相匹配,這最終應該有助於收入生產,有助於 RASM 生產。

  • Catherine Maureen O'Brien - Equity Analyst

    Catherine Maureen O'Brien - Equity Analyst

  • Maybe just my follow-up. We're going through another earnings season where there's quite a lot of focus on premium products. I guess, is your view that those will still prove to be cyclical in the next downturn, whenever that might be? I guess, really just interested in hearing how you're assessing demand for premium products and what data points could change your mind on your current product offering?

    也許只是我的後續行動。我們正在經歷另一個財報季,人們非常關注高端產品。我想,您是否認為,在下一次經濟衰退中,無論何時,這些因素仍將被證明是週期性的?我想,真的只是想聽聽您如何評估優質產品的需求以及哪些數據點可以改變您對當前產品的看法?

  • Robert E. Jordan - CEO, President & Director

    Robert E. Jordan - CEO, President & Director

  • Yes, I'll start, then Ryan can back cleanup with me here. But it's the -- I don't want to speak for others, and it's always hard to predict the future. But yes, there's clearly an outperformance in long-haul international and premium right now, like there was an outperformance in domestic leisure this time last year.

    是的,我先開始,然後瑞安可以和我一起回來清理。但我不想代表其他人說話,而且預測未來總是很難。但是,是的,目前長途國際航班和高端航班顯然表現出色,就像去年這個時候國內休閒航班的表現出色一樣。

  • Typically, trends moderate. They always have been in this business for a very long time and all things tend to sort of work their way back to a trend here. We'll see. And if you think about Southwest Airlines, we've got a tremendous coach product. We've got terrific seating and great rep rewards program and WiFi and all kinds of amenities, we're putting in power and larger overhead bins. We just announced bag tracking.

    通常情況下,趨勢溫和。他們在這個行業已經工作了很長一段時間,所有的事情都傾向於回到這裡的趨勢。我們拭目以待。如果你想想西南航空,我們有一個巨大的客車產品。我們有很棒的座位、很棒的代表獎勵計劃、無線網路和各種便利設施,我們還配備了電源和更大的頭頂行李箱。我們剛剛宣布了行李追蹤。

  • So we're obviously enhancing our product ourselves, which is a little different than premium, but certainly I think we have the most attractive coach product in the industry. Maybe attached to that, we're always looking at what our customers, our preferences are and what they're telling us, and we'll always study that. And if over time, those preferences change, we'll take a look at what that means for Southwest Airlines. Ryan?

    因此,我們顯然正在增強我們自己的產品,這與高端產品略有不同,但我當然認為我們擁有業內最具吸引力的客車產品。也許與此相關,我們一直在關注我們的客戶、我們的偏好以及他們告訴我們的內容,我們將始終研究這一點。如果隨著時間的推移,這些偏好發生變化,我們將看看這對西南航空意味著什麼。瑞安?

  • Ryan C. Green - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

    Ryan C. Green - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes, the only thing I would add is historically, premium revenue has been one of the more cyclical items in the industry overall. So the recovery from the pandemic has been a little bit different than other periods. So we're watching it closely. If we -- if there is some shift in consumer demand here that we need to take note of and evolve the product, we will.

    是的,我唯一要補充的是,從歷史上看,保費收入一直是整個行業週期性較強的項目之一。因此,從大流行中恢復過來的情況與其他時期略有不同。所以我們正在密切關注。如果我們——如果消費者需求發生一些變化,我們需要注意到並改進產品,我們就會這麼做。

  • But I think you want to be very careful with that and study that very closely given the cyclical nature historically of premium revenue. But just like we have over our 50-year history, we listen to customers, we understand how -- what they're demanding and preferences, how those change. And we've evolved our product over time, and we'll continue to do that as we go forward as we need to.

    但我認為考慮到保費收入歷史上的周期性,您需要對此非常小心並進行仔細研究。但就像我們 50 多年的歷史一樣,我們傾聽客戶的意見,並了解他們的需求和偏好如何改變。隨著時間的推移,我們不斷改進我們的產品,我們將根據需要繼續前進。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Duane Pfennigwerth from Evercore ISI.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Duane Pfennigwerth。

  • Duane Thomas Pfennigwerth - Senior MD

    Duane Thomas Pfennigwerth - Senior MD

  • Probably a question that's been asked a handful of times over the last few years. I understand the plan is to get margins up over time over the long run. But is there a specific plan to get margins up in 2024? We hear a lot of pushback from investors about your unit revenue kind of exit rate, and I think folks are kind of extrapolating that into the future and they're having a hard time seeing that path in 2024. So what does that path look like? And what will be required to get margins up next year? And is that explicitly a plan?

    可能這個問題在過去幾年已經被問過很多次了。我知道該計劃是為了長期提高利潤率。但是否有具體計畫在 2024 年提高利潤率?我們聽到投資者對單位收入退出率提出了很多反對意見,我認為人們在某種程度上將其推斷為未來,但他們很難在2024 年看到這條路徑。那麼這條路徑是什麼樣子的?明年需要什麼才能提高利潤率?這是明確的計劃嗎?

  • Robert E. Jordan - CEO, President & Director

    Robert E. Jordan - CEO, President & Director

  • Yes, Duane, obviously, that is absolutely the plan to improve margins in 2024, and we're committed to getting back to our long-term outperformance and operating margin. We were talking about adapting to these new cost levels, that will take time, but we're moving quickly. That is a big piece of adapting the network and matching customer demand and these new demand trends to the network that we put out for our customers, both business and leisure.

    是的,杜安,顯然,這絕對是 2024 年提高利潤率的計劃,我們致力於恢復長期優異的業績和營業利潤率。我們正在談論適應這些新的成本水平,這需要時間,但我們正在迅速採取行動。這是調整網路並將客戶需求和這些新需求趨勢與我們為商務和休閒客戶推出的網路相匹配的重要部分。

  • We have a lot of opportunity to bring out cost and efficiency through operating leverage through new tools, through managing our headcount. We've got a lot of folks that are locked up in training as an example, as we slow our hiring and slower our growth here, that will come out in terms of costs. We have a lot of cost places that we can make.

    我們有許多機會透過新工具、管理員工數量來提高營運槓桿率,從而提高成本和效率。例如,我們有很多人被困在培訓中,當我們放慢招募速度並放慢我們的成長速度時,這將在成本方面反映出來。我們有很多可以做的成本地方。

  • We're still working on our 2024 plans. But yes, I can assure you that a return -- growth in 2024 and then a return to industry-leading margins and the margins that our shareholders expect is absolutely a commitment. I don't know if you want to add anything, Tammy?

    我們仍在製定 2024 年計劃。但是,是的,我可以向您保證,到 2024 年實現回報增長,然後恢復行業領先的利潤率和股東期望的利潤率絕對是一項承諾。我不知道你是否想補充什麼,塔米?

  • Tammy Romo - Executive VP & CFO

    Tammy Romo - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. No, I thought that was very well said. But again, we know we have work to do, and we're fully committed to delivering on a 2024 plan that enables our operational excellence. We're going to drive operational efficiency. And as I said earlier, we're both sides of the equation. So stay tuned as we work through that, we'll be back with more details.

    是的。不,我認為這說得很好。但同樣,我們知道我們還有工作要做,並且我們完全致力於實現 2024 年計劃,以實現卓越營運。我們將提高營運效率。正如我之前所說,我們是等式的雙方。因此,請繼續關注我們的工作,我們將提供更多詳細資訊。

  • And I just do want to remind you as we've already shared, the estimated benefit of our network optimization efforts along with the continued maturation of our development markets, we're still working on our plan. But as we've shared, we do expect that to exceed $500 million in incremental year-over-year pretax profits next year. But clearly, more work ahead, and we'll -- we're hard at work for you.

    我只是想提醒您,正如我們已經分享的那樣,我們的網路優化工作的預期收益以及我們開發市場的持續成熟,我們仍在製定我們的計劃。但正如我們所分享的,我們確實預計明年稅前利潤將年增超過 5 億美元。但顯然,未來還有更多工作要做,我們會努力為您工作。

  • Duane Thomas Pfennigwerth - Senior MD

    Duane Thomas Pfennigwerth - Senior MD

  • I appreciate those direct answers. But maybe just to throw out an alternative, if you can't get your margins going in the right direction next year, if it's more like 25% or 26%, what might you consider strategically or put on the table that hasn't been on the table before? So if we think about things like seat assignments, base economy, bags fly free, historically, those have been sacrosanct. I mean, would there be more of an urgency to more aggressively take a look at the product and the service offering if you can't get there next year?

    我很欣賞這些直接的答案。但也許只是為了拋出一個替代方案,如果你明年無法讓你的利潤率朝著正確的方向發展,如果它更像是25% 或26%,你可能會策略性地考慮什麼或將哪些尚未得到解決的問題擺在桌面上。之前在桌上?因此,如果我們考慮一下座位分配、基礎經濟艙、行李免費飛行等問題,從歷史上看,這些都是神聖不可侵犯的。我的意思是,如果你明年無法實現這一目標,是否會更迫切地更積極地審視產品和服務?

  • Robert E. Jordan - CEO, President & Director

    Robert E. Jordan - CEO, President & Director

  • Yes. I mean, again, we're working on our 2024 plan, so we're not ready to lay all that out. The last set of initiatives that we took you through several years ago, the $1 billion to $1.5 billion in EBIT this year are paying off, and we'll have a next set. Some of those, I think, will make perfect sense. We have the ability to put flights into places where we can drive, obviously, operating leverage. So those flight and flight activities come on at lower CASM rates. We have some areas where we can continue to really push the generation of revenue outside the cabin.

    是的。我的意思是,我們正在製定 2024 年計劃,因此我們還沒有準備好列出所有這些計劃。幾年前我們帶領您完成的最後一組舉措,今年 10 億至 15 億美元的息稅前利潤正在得到回報,我們將推出下一組舉措。我認為其中一些是非常有意義的。顯然,我們有能力將航班飛往我們可以發揮營運槓桿作用的地方。因此,這些航班和航班活動的 CASM 費率較低。我們在某些​​領域可以繼續真正推動機艙外收入的產生。

  • Obviously, that centers around the Rapid Rewards program development and other areas. We have opportunities in terms of how we fly the aircraft where we can drive up utilization and generate additional ASMs without having to take on capital costs on new aircraft. I'm just not -- we're just not ready to share the whole plan with you. I'm just trying to convey that we're hard at work, and there is a lot on the table.

    顯然,這主要圍繞著快速獎勵計劃開發和其他領域。在如何駕駛飛機方面,我們有機會提高利用率並產生額外的 ASM,而無需承擔新飛機的資本成本。我只是不——我們只是還沒準備好與你分享整個計劃。我只是想表達我們正在努力工作,而且還有很多事情要做。

  • To your specific question about things in the cabin or boarding, I would go back to what Ryan said, which is, we are going to follow the lead of our customers. And if our customers ultimately tell us that, that is what they want, then that is what we will do. We're not ready to -- obviously not ready to say that today. But our customers will dictate what is important to them, whether that's an attribute of the product or things that are around boarding in the cabin. So again, don't read too much into that, but just understand that, that is something that we are constantly taking a look at.

    對於你關於機艙或登機的具體問題,我想回到瑞安所說的,那就是,我們將遵循客戶的領導。如果我們的客戶最終告訴我們,這就是他們想要的,那麼我們就會這麼做。我們今天還沒準備好——顯然還沒準備好這麼說。但我們的客戶會決定什麼對他們來說是重要的,無論是產品的屬性還是機艙登機時的物品。所以,再次強調,不要過度解讀這一點,而只是理解這一點,這是我們不斷關注的事情。

  • Duane Thomas Pfennigwerth - Senior MD

    Duane Thomas Pfennigwerth - Senior MD

  • Yes, I appreciate that. I guess over the years, you deserve the benefit of the doubt when you're printing industry-leading margins and saying we're going to go with what our customers want. But if you have lagging margins, it may require a harder look, but I appreciate you taking the questions.

    是的,我很欣賞這一點。我想多年來,當您印刷行業領先的利潤並說我們將滿足客戶的需求時,您應該從懷疑中受益。但如果你的利潤率落後,可能需要更仔細地審視,但我很感謝你提出問題。

  • Robert E. Jordan - CEO, President & Director

    Robert E. Jordan - CEO, President & Director

  • Yes, I would just add -- I understand. And just we will be absolutely relentless in meeting our goals. That includes driving out efficiency and productivity, that includes improving the revenue side of the equation, and that includes driving ourselves back to industry-leading margins. You have my commitment.

    是的,我只想補充一點——我明白。我們將堅定不移地實現我們的目標。這包括提高效率和生產力,包括改善收入方面,還包括推動我們回到業界領先的利潤率。你有我的承諾。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Mike Linenberg from Deutsche Bank.

    我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Mike Linenberg。

  • Michael John Linenberg - MD and Senior Company Research Analyst

    Michael John Linenberg - MD and Senior Company Research Analyst

  • Two here. I guess first one to Andrew. If I caught you correctly, you had indicated that you were moving up your international service from Fort Lauderdale to Orlando. I mean, Fort Lauderdale, I think, has been one of your original international gateways. What were the factors that drove you to move up? I mean, I know you have a pilot domicile in Orlando, but it is a smaller local market. That seems to be a pretty meaningful move.

    這裡有兩個。我想第一個是給安德魯的。如果我沒聽錯的話,您已經表示要將國際航班從勞德代爾堡升級到奧蘭多。我的意思是,我認為勞德代爾堡一直是你們最初的國際門戶之一。是什麼因素促使你升職的?我的意思是,我知道你們在奧蘭多有一個試點住所,但這是一個較小的當地市場。這似乎是一個很有意義的舉動。

  • Andrew M. Watterson - COO

    Andrew M. Watterson - COO

  • Thanks, Mike. I appreciate the question. We -- as we mentioned earlier, we were -- we have relooked at our network and moved our capacity around. So it's both the amount of capacity and the nature of the capacity. We did both of those moves first. We kind of were doing the nature with our reconfiguration that Tammy referenced earlier.

    謝謝,麥克。我很欣賞這個問題。正如我們之前提到的,我們重新審視了我們的網路並調整了我們的容量。因此,這既是容量的大小,也是容量的性質。我們首先做了這兩個動作。我們有點像塔米之前提到的那樣,透過重新配置來實現自然。

  • And for Orlando, we do have a lot more northbound flights, if you will. The international destinations, even though they loom large in our mind, they actually are modest-sized markets that require a decent amount of connectivity to fill them up. And so Orlando being a little bit further north and having more flights for Southwest Airlines north of Orlando allows us to have the good complement of the local plus the flow.

    如果你願意的話,對於奧蘭多,我們確實有更多的北行航班。國際目的地儘管在我們心目中顯得很重要,但實際上它們是中等規模的市場,需要相當多的連結才能填滿它們。因此,奧蘭多位於更北一點的位置,並且西南航空在奧蘭多以北有更多航班,這使我們能夠與當地和流量形成良好的互補。

  • So a lot of the international destinations were to take our customer base here on vacation because we are a repeat purchase business. And so we want our network in any given location to offer chances to fly for business, to go to Orlando, to go to Vegas, to go see (inaudible) to go on vacation on the beach. And so sometimes that's not and sometimes that's connecting. And for a lot of the international, it requires us to offer that as a connection for some of our kind of further northern cities.

    因此,許多國際目的地都將我們的客戶群帶到這裡度假,因為我們是重複購買業務。因此,我們希望我們的網路在任何特定地點都能提供商務飛行、前往奧蘭多、前往維加斯、去看(聽不清楚)、去海灘度假的機會。所以有時這不是,有時卻是有連結的。對於許多國際航班來說,這要求我們提供這種服務,作為我們一些更遠的北方城市的連接。

  • So Orlando, the combination of the local market plus allowing us to access our big customer bases on the Upper Midwest and Northeast makes a more network sense given scarce capacity, if you will. So net-net, that made sense. And then also, as you mentioned, the crew base in Orlando also makes the cost to serve that go down because you're not staging crews down to Fort Lauderdale. So looking both sides of the equation, as Bob said, revenue and costs, it made more sense for our international anchor in the Southeast to be Orlando.

    因此,如果您願意的話,考慮到容量稀缺,奧蘭多將當地市場與允許我們訪問中西部北部和東北部的大客戶群相結合,使網路更具意義。所以網絡網絡,這是有道理的。然後,正如您所提到的,奧蘭多的機組人員基地也使服務成本下降,因為您沒有將機組人員派往勞德代爾堡。因此,正如鮑勃所說,從收入和成本兩方面來看,我們在東南部的國際基地選擇奧蘭多更有意義。

  • Michael John Linenberg - MD and Senior Company Research Analyst

    Michael John Linenberg - MD and Senior Company Research Analyst

  • Andrew, just to sort of follow up on that, like 1.5 years ago, 2 years ago when you guys talked about some of your initiatives. One of the focuses longer term was to increase your connectivity. Is this a bit of a trial run in sort of focusing on this one market? And if it succeeds that type of connectivity, you look at applying that to other gateway cities. Is that sort of the plan here?

    Andrew,只是想跟進一下,就像 1.5 年前、2 年前,你們談論了一些倡議。長期的重點之一是增加您的連接性。這是一種專注於這一市場的試運行嗎?如果它成功實現了這種類型的連接,您會考慮將其應用到其他門戶城市。這裡是這樣的計劃嗎?

  • Andrew M. Watterson - COO

    Andrew M. Watterson - COO

  • No, I think this is -- during COVID, we had a kind of -- when demand was way down and we have bigger aircraft, we don't have a lot of RJs. We had to use more than usual connectivity to fill our aircraft. And then as we went post-COVID, we moved back to our normal, which is between 25% and 30% of our customers in our connecting itinerary, that's been fairly stable, but they're concentrated in certain areas, they help us fill up the early and late parts of the day and they also help us support certain geographies.

    不,我認為這是——在新冠疫情期間,我們經歷了一種——當需求大幅下降時,我們擁有更大的飛機,但我們沒有很多 RJ。我們必須使用比平常更多的連接來填充我們的飛機。然後,當我們在新冠疫情之後,我們又回到了正常狀態,即我們的轉機行程中有 25% 到 30% 的客戶,這相當穩定,但他們集中在某些區域,他們幫助我們填補了空缺。它們還幫助我們支持某些地區。

  • So going to Hawaii, we have these -- we have certain gateways there that allow us to access our customers in Island of Hawaii. The same thing for international, a combination of Baltimore plus now Orlando helps you access international from parts of our network. So connectivity has always been the icing, not the cake, but we were very intentional about how we use it.

    所以去夏威夷,我們有這些——我們在那裡有某些網關,使我們能夠接觸夏威夷大島的客戶。國際航班也是如此,巴爾的摩加上現在的奧蘭多可以幫助您從我們網路的部分地區訪問國際航班。因此,連接性一直是錦上添花,而不是蛋糕,但我們非常注重如何使用它。

  • Michael John Linenberg - MD and Senior Company Research Analyst

    Michael John Linenberg - MD and Senior Company Research Analyst

  • Okay. Very good. And then just the second one to Ryan. When I think about the $500 million pretax benefits coming from various revenue initiatives. As I look at loyalty and ancillary, they were both records in the quarter. Can you give us a sense of maybe where ancillary is per passenger today, where it's been historically? Where does that go? And any sort of rough numbers on just remuneration from loyalty, maybe the size of that program?

    好的。非常好。然後是瑞安的第二個。當我想到來自各種收入計劃的 5 億美元稅前收益時。當我查看忠誠度和輔助性時,它們都是本季的記錄。您能否讓我們了解一下今天每位乘客的輔助費用在哪裡,在歷史上又在哪裡?那會去哪裡?關於忠誠度報酬的任何粗略數字,也許是該計劃的規模?

  • Ryan C. Green - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

    Ryan C. Green - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes, no problem. Yes, ancillary and loyalty were both -- we had several records in the third quarter, and I expect good performance here as we look forward into the fourth quarter. Ancillary revenue is it outpacing our passenger growth, largely on the back of our upgraded boarding benefit. We've been able to increase prices there and hold on to take rates. Early Bird as well is a strong performer. We've been able to increase price rate -- prices on Early Bird as well as some of our other ancillary products that went into effect in August. We raised prices on excess bag fees, pet fees, things like that.

    是沒有問題。是的,輔助和忠誠度都是——我們在第三季有幾項記錄,我預計在我們展望第四季時會有良好的表現。輔助收入超過了乘客成長,這主要得益於我們升級的登機福利。我們已經能夠提高那裡的價格並保持利率不變。早起的鳥兒也是表現強勁的。我們已經能夠提高價格——早鳥價格以及八月生效的一些其他輔助產品的價格。我們提高了超額行李費、寵物費等費用。

  • So ancillary, absolutely is a standout. And I think I'm expecting it to continue to exceed passenger growth in the fourth quarter. Loyalty overall, as you -- as I'm sure you're following it, it's a very -- it's a key part of our strategy going forward. Rapid Rewards is the most preferred loyalty program in the industry on lots of different measures, primarily because customers are able to actually use the points that they're earning.

    如此輔助,絕對是佼佼者。我認為我預計第四季度客運量成長將持續超過客運量成長。總體而言,忠誠度是我們未來策略的關鍵部分,我確信​​您正在遵循它。從許多不同的衡量標準來看,快速獎勵是業內最受歡迎的忠誠度計劃,主要是因為客戶能夠實際使用他們所賺取的積分。

  • And so that's driving spend on the card. Third quarter spend on the card was a record, and we expect to continue growing the program over time. We also made some additional changes to Rapid Rewards here earlier this month that I think is also going to continue to drive engagement from our customers. And it's all about making it easier to get value out of the program for customers.

    這推動了該卡的支出。第三季該卡的支出創紀錄,我們預計隨著時間的推移,該計劃將繼續發展。本月早些時候,我們還對快速獎勵進行了一些額外的更改,我認為這也將繼續提高客戶的參與度。這一切都是為了讓客戶更輕鬆地從該計劃中獲取價值。

  • We see when customers make a redemption, after that redemption, they fly us more, they spend more on their card. It just drives further engagement with Southwest Airlines. And so doing things like adding the ability to combine cash and points. That's all about making it easier to use rapid reward points, which will then in turn provide value back to Southwest.

    我們看到,當客戶進行兌換時,兌換後,他們乘坐我們的航班的次數更多,他們在卡上的消費也更多。它只會推動與西南航空的進一步接觸。因此,我們可以做一些事情,例如添加現金和積分結合的功能。這一切都是為了讓快速獎勵積分的使用變得更加容易,進而為西南航空提供價值。

  • Same thing with lowering the tier requirements for A-List and A-List Preferred. We're kind of bucking the industry trend there. Our competitors are making it harder to access benefits. We're making it easier. And again, there's value to the consumer there, but there's also value back to Southwest.

    降低 A-List 和 A-List Preferred 的等級要求也是如此。我們有點逆行業趨勢。我們的競爭對手正在讓我們更難獲得福利。我們正在讓它變得更容易。再說一次,那裡的消費者有價值,但西南航空也有價值。

  • Customers stretch to reach A-List and A-List Preferred companion pass. They fly more, they spend more on their cards as they get close to that. And so bringing those thresholds in closer makes it better for the customer, but it also drives value back to Southwest. So we'll continue to invest in Rapid Rewards in the program and ancillary overall. And I think we'll -- we should expect to see continued growth.

    客戶可輕鬆獲得 A-List 和 A-List Preferred 同伴通行證。當他們接近這個目標時,他們會飛得更多,在信用卡上花更多的錢。因此,拉近這些門檻不僅可以為客戶提供更好的服務,還可以將價值帶回西南航空。因此,我們將繼續投資於該計劃和整體輔助項目的快速獎勵。我認為我們應該期待看到持續成長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And ladies and gentlemen, we have time for one more question. We'll take our last question from Helane Becker from TD Cowen.

    女士們、先生們,我們還有時間再問一個問題。我們將回答 TD Cowen 的 Helane Becker 提出的最後一個問題。

  • Helane Renee Becker - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Helane Renee Becker - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Just a couple of questions to follow up. With the changes in Rapid Rewards and making it easier to earn, what you would call status, isn't that kind of amounting to fair cuts across the board?

    只有幾個問題需要跟進。隨著快速獎勵的變化並使其更容易獲得,即所謂的地位,這不是相當於全面公平的削減嗎?

  • Ryan C. Green - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

    Ryan C. Green - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

  • Amounting to fair cuts across the board?

    相當於全面公平削減嗎?

  • Helane Renee Becker - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Helane Renee Becker - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Yes. I mean, if it makes it easier for me to redeem my points, I mean, don't you wind up selling fewer revenue seats?

    是的。我的意思是,如果這讓我更容易兌換積分,我的意思是,你最終不會出售更少的收益座位嗎?

  • Ryan C. Green - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

    Ryan C. Green - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

  • So the way that we've designed the loyalty program and the value exchange from the customer and the number of Rapid Reward points that it takes to redeem, we're indifferent whether or not the customer is flying for us on Rapid Reward points or paying cash. So we've taken that equation kind of off the table. The change here really is post-pandemic the same number of customers are traveling for business today than what they were before, and then leisure customers are actually up. The difference and what the gap in managed travel is, is that those individuals are flying a bit less frequently.

    因此,我們設計忠誠度計劃、客戶價值交換以及兌換所需的快速獎勵積分數量的方式,無論客戶是否使用快速獎勵積分為我們飛行或支付費用,我們都無關緊要。現金。所以我們已經把這個等式排除在外了。這裡的變化確實是在大流行後,今天出差的客戶數量與以前相同,然後休閒客戶實際上有所增加。管理旅行的差異和差距在於,這些人的飛行頻率稍低。

  • And so what our change to make the threshold easier to achieve is really just capitalizing on that fact, bringing the threshold in earlier. And as I was just explaining, we'll get benefit from that, too, because more customers will be able to stretch for A-List and A-List Preferred, which drives value back to us.

    因此,我們為使門檻更容易達到而做出的改變實際上只是利用了這一事實,更早地提出了門檻。正如我剛才所解釋的,我們也將從中受益,因為更多的客戶將能夠獲得 A-List 和 A-List Preferred,這將為我們帶來價值。

  • Helane Renee Becker - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Helane Renee Becker - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Got it. Okay. That's really helpful. And then the other question I had for my follow-up was, I think at one point, you guided to $1 billion to $1.5 billion in EBIT contribution in 2023. But I feel like that might be -- is that -- I guess, is that an easier comp because of Elliott last year that you'll be able to achieve that?

    知道了。好的。這真的很有幫助。然後我要跟進的另一個問題是,我認為在某一時刻,您指導到 2023 年息稅前利潤貢獻為 10 億至 15 億美元。但我覺得這可能是——我想,由於去年的艾利奧特,你能實現這一目標嗎?

  • Tammy Romo - Executive VP & CFO

    Tammy Romo - Executive VP & CFO

  • Helane, we're delivering on the initiatives. And obviously, that includes things like our fleet modernization, our investments in GDS, our new revenue management system, et cetera. And even what just -- but in terms of the initiatives, those are driving and those are tracking in line with what we've shared with you. And then we're continuing to invest, as Ryan took you through. And those investments just drive more engagement from our customers that makes them more and more loyal. So the initiatives that we've shared with you are driving incremental value and we're continuing to track in line with what we've shared with you. So those are actually delivering.

    Helane,我們正在落實這些舉措。顯然,這包括我們的車隊現代化、我們對 GDS 的投資、我們新的收入管理系統等等。甚至只是 - 但就舉措而言,這些舉措正在推動,並且正在按照我們與您分享的內容進行追蹤。然後我們將繼續投資,正如 Ryan 所帶領的那樣。這些投資只會提高客戶的參與度,使他們變得越來越忠誠。因此,我們與您分享的舉措正在推動價值增量,我們將繼續根據我們與您分享的內容進行追蹤。所以這些實際上正在交付。

  • Now that said, we're not -- we've already shared with you, we're not satisfied with where we stand now going into 2024, but as we've shared, we're just not ready to lay it all out for you today, but we are working on our 2024 plan, and we'll certainly fill in more of the answers so that you can kind of see how it all weaves together here. So stay tuned and more to come there.

    話雖如此,我們已經與您分享了,我們對進入 2024 年的現狀並不滿意,但正如我們所分享的,我們只是還沒有準備好全力以赴今天為您解答,但我們正在製定2024 年計劃,我們肯定會填寫更多答案,以便您可以在這裡看到這一切是如何交織在一起的。所以請繼續關注,還有更多內容即將到來。

  • Okay. That concludes the analyst portion of our call. I appreciate everyone joining, and have a great day.

    好的。我們電話會議的分析師部分就到此結束。我感謝大家的加入,祝您有美好的一天。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin with our media portion of today's call. I'd like to first introduce Ms. Linda Rutherford, Chief Administration and Communications Officer.

    女士們先生們,我們現在開始今天電話會議的媒體部分。首先我想介紹一下首席行政和通訊官琳達·盧瑟福女士。

  • Linda Burke Rutherford - Chief Administration & Communications Officer

    Linda Burke Rutherford - Chief Administration & Communications Officer

  • Thank you, Jamie. I'd like to welcome members of the media to our call today. Before we begin taking questions, Jamie, we just give them instructions on how everyone can queue up.

    謝謝你,傑米。我謹歡迎媒體成員參加我們今天的電話會議。傑米,在我們開始提問之前,我們只是向他們提供有關每個人如何排隊的說明。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) And our first question today comes from Alexandra Skores from the Dallas Morning News.

    (操作員說明)今天我們的第一個問題來自達拉斯晨報的亞歷山德拉·斯科雷斯(Alexandra Skores)。

  • Alexandra Skores

    Alexandra Skores

  • I wanted to ask, obviously, the flight attendants reached their tentative agreement yesterday. And pilots were picketing at headquarters today. So I kind of wanted to ask a little bit about -- I know that NMB has meetings scheduled with you all throughout November. What -- can you give us a sense of when a pilot (inaudible) may come and what the time frame might look like on that?

    我想問一下,顯然,昨天空服人員已經達成了初步協議。今天,飛行員在總部設置了糾察線。所以我有點想問一些關於——我知道 NMB 在整個 11 月都安排了與你們的會議。什麼-您能否讓我們了解一下飛行員(聽不清楚)何時會來以及具體的時間範圍是怎樣的?

  • Robert E. Jordan - CEO, President & Director

    Robert E. Jordan - CEO, President & Director

  • Alexandra, I just want to -- I'll answer your question, I promise, but I just wanted to say I'm grateful, we all are that we have a tentative agreement with our awesome flight attendants. There's still more work to do. The union is working on materials and training and then so they can get the information out to our flight attendants here quickly so that they can then vote. But I'm just real pleased with the milestone.

    亞歷山德拉,我只想——我保證,我會回答你的問題,但我只是想說我很感激,我們都與我們出色的空服員達成了初步協議。還有更多工作要做。工會正在準備材料和培訓,然後他們可以快速將資訊傳遞給我們這裡的空服人員,以便他們可以投票。但我對這一里程碑感到非常滿意。

  • Obviously, we've had a really good 12 months. I think that's our eighth agreement in 12 months and we are committed to finishing up the others. Our swap agreement is -- our swap by negotiations are continuing. There's progress. I believe, Andrew, we're meeting every week. And -- but obviously, we've got to get it over the finish line. Andrew, what would you like to add?

    顯然,我們度過了非常美好的 12 個月。我認為這是我們 12 個月內達成的第八份協議,我們致力於完成其他協議。我們的互換協議是-我們的互換談判仍在繼續。有進步了。我相信,安德魯,我們每週都會見面。而且——但顯然,我們必須衝過終點線。安德魯,你想補充什麼?

  • Andrew M. Watterson - COO

    Andrew M. Watterson - COO

  • I think I've been really encouraged over the last couple of months with both the pace and quality negotiation with meeting every week. Sometimes that's with the mediators and sometimes that's without the mediators. And so we've made -- we've also had enhanced leadership negotiation from both sides, and leadership presence of negotiations from both sides, and that's worked out really well.

    我認為在過去的幾個月裡,每週舉行的談判的速度和品質都讓我深受鼓舞。有時有調解員,有時沒有調解員。因此,我們也加強了雙方的領導談判,雙方都在談判中發揮了領導作用,效果非常好。

  • Our mediators have been quite active. And so we have to have both sides agree to get to a deal. So no one side can predict when it's going to finish, but we've made substantial progress with a small but difficult list of things rated to close out, and I have confidence in our team and the swap and negotiating committed will be able to do that in a timely fashion.

    我們的調解員非常活躍。因此,我們必須讓雙方都同意達成協議。因此,沒有人可以預測何時會完成,但我們已經取得了實質進展,列出了一小部分但困難的事情,預計將結束,我對我們的團隊充滿信心,承諾的交換和談判將能夠完成及時地。

  • The mediator has -- is barring no government shutdown, more date for us throughout the rest of this month and next month. And I also would say that there was negotiations with our ramp unit, TW555. And so hope to be engaged with them here in the next couple of weeks for next step there. So we can -- that would then be the last deal for us to close out.

    調解人已經——除非政府關門,否則我們會在本月剩餘時間和下個月為我們提供更多日期。我還要說的是,我們與我們的坡道裝置 TW555 進行了談判。因此,希望在接下來的幾週內與他們合作,進行下一步工作。所以我們可以——這將是我們完成的最後一筆交易。

  • Alexandra Skores

    Alexandra Skores

  • Yes, that was my second question was TW555. I understand they reached an agreement, but it doesn't seem like there was a ratification announcement. So I'm wondering if you all can give an update there?

    是的,這是我的第二個問題是 TW555。我知道他們達成了協議,但似乎沒有批准公告。所以我想知道你們是否可以在那裡提供更新?

  • Andrew M. Watterson - COO

    Andrew M. Watterson - COO

  • That was a month or so ago. I can't recall exactly, Bob. But they've loaded that one down. Their union as most unions do, follow-up with the survey to understand where the frontline workers, the members did not like the proposed agreement. Based on that feedback, the union will develop a slate of changes. We will do that on our side as well. And then we'll get back together in early mid-November to talk about next steps with them for the next round. We're not in mediation with that. We have I think very productive negotiations without mediators with the 555 and we expect that to continue.

    那是大約一個月前的事了。我記不太清楚了,鮑伯。但他們已經把那個放下了。他們的工會像大多數工會一樣,進行追蹤調查,了解第一線工人中,會員不喜歡所提出的協議。根據這些回饋,工會將制定一系列變革。我們也會這樣做。然後我們將在 11 月初中旬再次聚在一起,與他們討論下一輪的後續步驟。我們不會對此進行調解。我認為我們與 555 進行了沒有調解人的非常有成效的談判,我們希望這種情況能夠繼續下去。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Leslie Josephs from CNBC.

    我們的下一個問題來自 CNBC 的萊斯利·約瑟夫斯。

  • Leslie Josephs

    Leslie Josephs

  • Just curious about your discounting strategy. You have fare sales frequently, but it seems like the fares are pretty low currently. Could you kind of put that into context with previous fare sales, how that compares and how you're thinking about the fourth quarter?

    只是好奇你們的折扣策略。你們經常有票價銷售,但目前票價似乎很低。您能否將其與先前的票價銷售聯繫起來,進行比較,以及您對第四季度的看法?

  • Robert E. Jordan - CEO, President & Director

    Robert E. Jordan - CEO, President & Director

  • Yes, Leslie. We do -- we are finishing up restoration here. And so we do have more seats to fill. I would characterize our promotional activity as being slightly more than normal. It's definitely not a tectonic shift from how promotional we have been historically, but there is a little bit more. When we have been promote have -- as we have put those fare sales out there, we use some fairly sophisticated tactics and strategies to be very surgical in where we drive the demand.

    是的,萊斯利。我們確實——我們正在完成這裡的修復工作。所以我們確實有更多的席位需要填補。我認為我們的促銷活動比平常稍多。這絕對不是我們歷史上促銷方式的結構性轉變,但還有更多。當我們進行促銷時——正如我們已經將這些票價銷售放在那裡一樣,我們使用一些相當複雜的策略和策略來非常靈活地推動需求。

  • So oftentimes, those sale fares -- well, always those sale fares are available when we have distressed inventory to sell. And we keep the higher demand flights. The promotion is not applicable on the higher demand flights. So it allows us to drive load without diluting yields. Yes. I would just also point out to -- relative to your comment on really low fares out there. The fares -- our average fare in the third quarter was up 2.6%. So if we were being -- if we were having to overly discount, you wouldn't expect average fares to be up.

    通常,當我們有待售的不良庫存時,這些促銷票價總是可用的。我們保留更高需求的航班。此促銷活動不適用於需求較高的航班。因此,它使我們能夠在不稀釋產量的情況下推動負載。是的。我還想指出——相對於您對那裡票價非常低的評論。票價——第三季我們的平均票價上漲了 2.6%。因此,如果我們不得不過度折扣,你就不會期望平均票價會上漲。

  • So I think the strategy overall is working as designed. We've got a lot of seats to fill. We're selling our distressed inventory through discounting and protecting our higher-yield flights.

    所以我認為整體策略正在按設計發揮作用。我們有很多座位需要填補。我們正在透過折扣和保護我們的高收益航班來出售我們的不良庫存。

  • Leslie Josephs

    Leslie Josephs

  • And are there any specific routes or regions where you're seeing you're having to discount more or even times of the week or month or recent months?

    您是否發現某些特定航線或地區必須在一周、一個月或最近幾個月中多次甚至多次打折?

  • Ryan C. Green - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

    Ryan C. Green - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes, it's less about the markets in different geographies and more about travel patterns today. Tuesdays and Wednesdays are tougher, shoulder periods of the day are tougher. And so that inventory is a little -- that's where a lot of the discounting is actually happening. We're adapting to those travel patterns and trends as we move forward here with our network optimization starting after the first of the year to reduce some shoulder flying, reduce -- further reduce some Tuesday, Wednesday flying to help address that. But it's more that than it is in particular geographies.

    是的,這與不同地區的市場無關,而更多地與當今的旅行模式有關。週二和週三更艱難,一天中的肩膀時期更艱難。因此,庫存量很小——這就是實際上發生大量折扣的地方。我們正在適應這些旅行模式和趨勢,因為我們在今年年初之後開始進行網路優化,以減少一些肩飛,減少——進一步減少一些週二、週三的航班,以幫助解決這個問題。但這不僅僅是特定地區的情況。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Mary Schlangenstein from Bloomberg News.

    我們的下一個問題來自彭博新聞社的瑪麗‧施蘭根斯坦。

  • Mary Schlangenstein

    Mary Schlangenstein

  • I was going to ask a question about how you are adjusting capacity to help with the reshaping of the business travel and the way it hasn't come back as you expected. And Ryan may have just answered that question, but I wanted to see if you could put a little bit more specifics out there on those adjustments, days or weeks, times of days, cutting frequency, things like that?

    我想問一個問題,關於您如何調整運力以幫助重塑商務旅行以及商務旅行為何沒有按您的預期恢復。瑞安可能剛剛回答了這個問題,但我想看看你是否可以就這些調整提供更多細節,幾天或幾週,幾天的時間,削減頻率,諸如此類的事情?

  • Robert E. Jordan - CEO, President & Director

    Robert E. Jordan - CEO, President & Director

  • Yes. Mary, I'll talk and then Andrew and Ryan can finish -- obviously, correct me. But yes, that really is why we are making the -- both the network adjustment and optimization that we had already announced that is in the first quarter that's worth over $500 million in profit next year. And then this new set of capacity adjustments, both in the first quarter and then throughout 2024 in the nonpeak period. It's really about the shoulder period to the nonpeak periods being more shoulder than before.

    是的。瑪麗,我會說話,然後安德魯和瑞安可以完成 - 顯然,請糾正我。但是,是的,這確實是我們進行網路調整和優化的原因,我們已經宣布,明年第一季的利潤將超過 5 億美元。然後是這一組新的運力調整,無論是第一季還是整個 2024 年的非高峰期。這實際上是關於肩峰期到非峰值期比以前更多的肩峰期。

  • So for example, some of that was backfilled by business travel, which, again, business travel is rising for us, it's just steady. It's just not fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels. But as an example, this reduction in January and February of 2024 next quarter. That is really all -- that's as much about matching new business travel demand trends and patterns as it is anything. So that carries through 2024, but yes.

    舉例來說,其中一些是由商務旅行填補的,同樣,商務旅行對我們來說正在上升,而且很穩定。只是還沒有完全恢復到疫情前的水準。但舉個例子,下季 2024 年 1 月和 2 月的減少。這確實是全部——這與匹配新的商務旅行需求趨勢和模式一樣重要。所以這會持續到 2024 年,但是的。

  • Andrew M. Watterson - COO

    Andrew M. Watterson - COO

  • You heard Bob. Now it's Andrew say that -- overall business travel is down maybe 10% or 15% versus 2019. So it's not like a guardrail to guardrail move. It's just more a modest recalibration on network. So it is geared less -- little bit less towards business, little bit more towards leisure or mixed leisure business. Tuesday, Wednesday, which historically has been a more business travel heavy day will be much lower versus kind of Monday, Thursday, Friday. So that was one big part of it. And also, if you look at certain cities, if you look at the route combinations, some routes would have predominantly business travel on it. And so we've replaced those routes in those cities, ones that have kind of either pure leisure or mix of leisure and business. So it's really a modest adjustment of the portfolio of routes as well as a kind of Tuesday, Wednesday reduction in overall capacity.

    你聽到了鮑伯。現在安德魯說——與 2019 年相比,整體商務旅行可能下降了 10% 或 15%。所以這不像護欄到護欄的移動。這只是對網路進行適度的重新校準。因此,它的面向較少——面向商業的面向較少,面向休閒或混合休閒業務的面向較多。週二和週三歷來是商務旅行較多的一天,與週一、週四和週五相比,這一天的出行量將低得多。這是其中的一大部分。而且,如果你看看某些城市,如果你看看航線組合,你會發現有些航線主要是商務旅行。因此,我們更換了這些城市中的那些路線,這些路線要么是純粹的休閒路線,要么是休閒與商務相結合的路線。因此,這實際上是對航線組合的適度調整,以及週二、週三總體運力的減少。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from David Slotnick from TPG.

    我們的下一個問題來自 TPG 的 David Slotnick。

  • David Slotnick

    David Slotnick

  • I was wondering if you could just expand a little bit on the lower-than-expected close-in bookings. Do you think this is a lengthening of the booking curve again, sort of a return to the pre-pandemic booking trends? Or is this a one-off that maybe have something to do with the present element?

    我想知道您是否可以稍微擴大一下低於預期的近距離預訂量。您認為這是否是預訂曲線再次拉長,有點回到了大流行前的預訂趨勢?或者這是一次性的,可能與當前元素有關?

  • Andrew M. Watterson - COO

    Andrew M. Watterson - COO

  • David, I would just characterize it as we are moving back towards more pre-pandemic norms. Of course, managed business travel remains down relative to pre-pandemic levels. It's -- the baseline in managed business is kind of slow and steady recovery, and we're picking up market share with our initiatives in the managed business space. And so we feel good about that.

    大衛,我只是將其描述為我們正在回到大流行之前的規範。當然,管理商務旅行相對於大流行前的水平仍然下降。託管業務的基線是緩慢而穩定的復甦,我們正在透過託管業務領域的舉措來提高市場份額。所以我們對此感覺良好。

  • But when you turn to the leisure piece of this, there is still more close-in leisure today than there was pre-pandemic, but it is not at the level of what we saw earlier this year, at the end of last year. So I think it's more of a reversing of trends here back to norms as kind of -- return to office trends and things like that also begin to change here a bit.

    但當你轉向休閒方面時,今天的近距離休閒仍然比大流行前更多,但沒有達到我們今年早些時候、去年年底看到的水平。所以我認為這更多的是一種趨勢的逆轉,回歸常態,就像回到辦公室的趨勢一樣,類似的事情也開始發生一些變化。

  • I called it out in my prepared remarks, but specifically, in the third quarter, there's other things that would have impacted close-in leisure, the school calendar changes are pretty significant in August specifically. And 1/3 -- in our markets, 1/3 of schools were back in session the second week of August. That's double what it was pre-pandemic. And anybody that has kids, usually don't travel the week before your kids go back to school. So that kind of wipes almost all of August out there for 1/3 of travel in our market.

    我在準備好的演講中指出了這一點,但具體來說,在第三季度,還有其他一些事情會影響近距離休閒,特別是八月份的學校日曆變化非常重要。 1/3——在我們的市場中,1/3 的學校在八月的第二週恢復上課。這是大流行前的兩倍。任何有孩子的人通常都不會在孩子返校前一周出行。因此,這種情況幾乎抹去了我們市場上 1/3 的 8 月旅行量。

  • So there's some things moving around in the macro environment that's impacting it. But I think just generally characterizing, we're kind of reverting back to norms. And there is the risk of being redundant, which I probably am. All of these things are about tweaking the network and the business for new demand trends and behaviors that are caused by things like business being just below and not fully recovered or new trends coming out of the pandemic.

    因此,宏觀環境中的一些因素正在對其產生影響。但我認為,就整體特徵而言,我們正在回歸常態。而且存在被冗餘的風險,我可能就是這樣。所有這些都是為了調整網路和業務,以適應新的需求趨勢和行為,這些趨勢和行為是由業務略低於且未完全恢復或大流行中出現的新趨勢等原因引起的。

  • There -- it's not about there is a demand problem. So again, at Southwest, we're seeing, again, record operating revenues, record passengers, record Rapid Rewards participation on revenues, record retail spend on our card, record new members on and on and on, and we're expecting record operating revenues and passengers again in the fourth quarter.

    這與需求問題無關。因此,在西南航空,我們再次看到創紀錄的營運收入、創紀錄的乘客數量、創紀錄的快速獎勵參與收入、創紀錄的卡零售支出、不斷創紀錄的新會員,我們預計創紀錄的運營收入第四季的收入和乘客量再次出現下滑。

  • So it's not as if we're not generating demand. Southwest is generating a strong demand. It's about getting that aligned more precisely with the new travel patterns and also just absorbing the rapid growth that we saw because we restored our network here in the back half of the year, and that just drove sequentially more seats, more capacity than normal.

    因此,我們並不是沒有產生需求。西南航空正在產生強勁的需求。這是為了讓這一點更準確地與新的旅行模式保持一致,並且只是吸收我們看到的快速增長,因為我們在今年下半年恢復了我們的網絡,這只是連續推動了比正常情況更多的座位和運力。

  • And now it's time to mature that, absorb that, which is really why we're stepping down and slowing our growth rate in '24 so that we can take the time to do that. But I just want to point out to me, a lot of this is -- while there's work to do, a lot of this is tweaking and adjusting to the new trends. It's not about we have a demand problem.

    現在是時候讓這一點成熟起來,吸收它,這就是我們在 24 年放慢速度並放慢成長率的真正原因,以便我們可以花時間做到這一點。但我只想向我指出,雖然還有很多工作要做,但其中許多都是為了適應新趨勢而進行的調整和調整。這不是我們有需求問題。

  • David Slotnick

    David Slotnick

  • Got it. And then just following up, you excluded the holiday specifically when you mentioned this during your prepared remarks. What's the booking curve looking like for that? Where do you think we are in the curve sort of right now?

    知道了。然後,當您在準備好的發言中提到這一點時,您特別排除了假期。預訂曲線是什麼樣的?您認為我們現在處於曲線的哪個位置?

  • Ryan C. Green - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

    Ryan C. Green - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes, holiday bookings are strong. I made the comment earlier that if you look at where we sit today versus last year at this point in the curve for the December holiday period, specifically, were booked ahead, which I think is a vote of confidence that customers are beyond our operational disruption, and we're not suffering any sort of demand weakness for the December holiday period. And I would just characterize the Thanksgiving period as strong as -- well, we've got a lot of capacity here over the -- in the fourth quarter that we'll have to absorb. But I'm pleased with how the holidays are booking.

    是的,假期預訂量很大。我之前說過,如果你看一下我們今天與去年在 12 月假期曲線的這一點上的情況,特別是提前預訂,我認為這是對客戶對我們運營中斷的影響投下的信任票,並且我們在12 月假期期間沒有遇到任何形式的需求疲軟。我只想將感恩節期間的特徵描述為——好吧,我們在第四季度擁有大量的產能,我們必須吸收這些產能。但我對假期的預訂感到滿意。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question comes from -- is a follow-up from Mary Schlangenstein from Bloomberg News.

    我們的下一個問題來自彭博新聞社瑪麗·施蘭根斯坦的後續報導。

  • Mary Schlangenstein

    Mary Schlangenstein

  • I appreciate the extra question. I wanted to ask, in the order book, the new order book that you laid out today, you're taking an additional aircraft over 200 additional aircraft over that time frame. And I wanted to see if you would comment on why you decided to do that now because it hasn't been that long since you placed an order for MAXes?

    我很感激這個額外的問題。我想問一下,在你們今天列出的新訂單簿中,你們在這段時間內額外購買了 200 多架飛機。我想看看您是否願意評論為什麼現在決定這樣做,因為距離您下達 MAX 訂單還沒有多久?

  • Robert E. Jordan - CEO, President & Director

    Robert E. Jordan - CEO, President & Director

  • Yes, Mary, I'll start and then Tammy can add on. But I think it's really about a couple of things. Again, the delivery, Boeing is a great partner. We've all suffered supply chain and other issues. So the delivery challenges have just pushed a lot of aircraft forward, and we just want to make sure we got back to clean all that up, and let's get back to where -- the order book reflects quarterly and appropriate growth.

    是的,瑪麗,我先開始,然後塔米可以補充。但我認為這實際上與幾件事有關。再次強調,在交付方面,波音是個很棒的合作夥伴。我們都遭遇過供應鏈和其他問題。因此,交付挑戰剛剛推動了許多飛機的前進,我們只是想確保我們能回來清理所有這些問題,讓我們回到原來的地方——訂單反映了季度和適當的增長。

  • So that's why you see a pretty normal sort of 80, 85, 90 number year to year to year to year. That was number one. Let's just clean all this up.

    這就是為什麼你年復一年地看到 80、85、90 等非常正常的數字。那是第一。讓我們把這一切都清理乾淨。

  • Number two, the aircraft -- the new aircraft market is tight. And we want to ensure that we have access to aircraft into the future. And we've done that through 2031. We want to make sure that we locked in very attractive pricing, which we have with Boeing, again, as a great partner, and we've accomplished that.

    第二,飛機-新飛機市場緊張。我們希望確保未來能夠使用飛機。我們已經做到了這一點,一直到 2031 年。我們希望確保鎖定非常有吸引力的價格,我們再次作為優秀的合作夥伴與波音公司合作,我們已經做到了這一點。

  • And then last, again, sort of -- there's been more variability in our industry than I think I've ever seen. And so because of that, you just need to make sure you've got plenty of flexibility, and that's flex up and that's flex down level of options and other things, we have plenty of opportunity to move those annual numbers up and down as demand dictates. So it was really -- it was as much about sort of taking the uncertainty out of the future, but also walking up access to those aircraft that attracted pricing. Tammy?

    最後,我們產業的變化比我想像的還要多。正因為如此,你只需要確保你有足夠的靈活性,那就是靈活向上和靈活向下的選項水平和其他東西,我們有很多機會根據需求上下移動這些年度數字規定。所以這其實是為了消除未來的不確定性,同時也是為了獲得那些吸引定價的飛機。塔米?

  • Tammy Romo - Executive VP & CFO

    Tammy Romo - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, you hit it all, Bob. But yes, we're very thrilled to have wrapped up our discussions with Boeing. It's everything Bob covered. And certainly, one of our key initiatives just to add on is our fleet modernization efforts. So again, we believe this order book supports our quarterly growth plan and our fleet modernization initiative provides significant flexibility for us and also gives us a great path to retire our -700 fleet over the coming years. So I think we are just thrilled to have a cost-effective order book that meets our needs going forward.

    是的,你做到了,鮑伯。但是,是的,我們非常高興能夠結束與波音的討論。這就是鮑伯所涵蓋的一切。當然,我們的關鍵舉措之一就是我們的機隊現代化努力。因此,我們再次相信這份訂單支持我們的季度成長計劃,我們的機隊現代化計劃為我們提供了顯著的靈活性,也為我們在未來幾年退役我們的-700 機隊提供了一條很好的道路。因此,我認為我們很高興擁有一個具有成本效益的訂單簿,可以滿足我們未來的需求。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And ladies and gentlemen, this will conclude our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over to Ms. Rutherford for any closing remarks.

    女士們、先生們,我們的問答環節到此結束。我想請盧瑟福女士做結束語。

  • Linda Burke Rutherford - Chief Administration & Communications Officer

    Linda Burke Rutherford - Chief Administration & Communications Officer

  • Thank you all for being with us. Members of the media, if you have any follow-up questions, you can obviously reach out to our communications team at (214) 792-4847, or on our media website at swamedia.com. Thanks so much for joining us.

    感謝大家與我們同在。媒體朋友們,如果您有任何後續問題,您可以撥打 (214) 792-4847 或造訪我們的媒體網站 swamedia.com 聯絡我們的傳播團隊。非常感謝您加入我們。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, the conference has now concluded. We thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.

    女士們、先生們,會議現已結束。我們感謝您參加今天的演講。現在您可以斷開線路。