科林研發 (LRCX) 2014 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day and welcome to the Lam Research Corporation June, 2014 quarterly results conference call.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 Lam Research Corporation 2014 年 6 月的季度業績電話會議。

At this time I would like to turn the conference over to Ms. Carol Raeburn.

在這個時候，我想把會議交給 Carol Raeburn 女士。

Please go ahead, ma'am.

請繼續，女士。

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to the Lam Research quarterly conference call.

大家下午好，歡迎參加 Lam Research 季度電話會議。

With me today are Martin Anstice, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Doug Bettinger, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

今天和我在一起的是總裁兼首席執行官 Martin Anstice 和執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Doug Bettinger。

During today's call, we will share our outlook on the business environment and review our financial results for the June 2014 quarter, and our outlook for the September 2014 quarter.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將分享我們對商業環境的展望，並回顧我們 2014 年 6 月季度的財務業績，以及我們對 2014 年 9 月季度的展望。

The press release detailing our financial results was distributed a little after 1:00 PM this afternoon.

今天下午 1:00 之後發布了詳細說明我們財務業績的新聞稿。

It can also be found on the Investor Relations section of the Company's website, along with the presentation slides that accompany today's call.

它也可以在公司網站的投資者關係部分以及今天電話會議隨附的演示幻燈片中找到。

Today's presentation and Q&A will include statements about our expectations and beliefs regarding certain future outcomes, including our guidance.

今天的演示和問答將包括關於我們對某些未來結果的期望和信念的陳述，包括我們的指導。

A more comprehensive list of forward-looking topics that we expect to cover is shown on the slide deck accompanying my remarks.

我們期望涵蓋的更全面的前瞻性主題列表顯示在我的評論隨附的幻燈片上。

All statements made that are not historical in fact are forward-looking statements based on current information, and are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially.

事實上，所有非歷史性的陳述都是基於當前信息的前瞻性陳述，並受到可能導致實際結果產生重大差異的風險和不確定性的影響。

We encourage you to review the risk factor disclosure in our public filings, including our 10-K and 10-Q.

我們鼓勵您查看我們的公開文件中披露的風險因素，包括我們的 10-K 和 10-Q。

The Company undertakes no obligation to update forward-looking statements.

本公司不承擔更新前瞻性陳述的義務。

Today's discussion of our financial results will be presented in a non-GAAP financial basis unless otherwise specified.

除非另有說明，否則今天對我們財務業績的討論將在非公認會計原則財務基礎上提出。

A detailed reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP results can be found in today's earnings press release.

可以在今天的收益新聞稿中找到 GAAP 和非 GAAP 結果之間的詳細核對。

This call is scheduled to last until 3:00 PM Pacific time.

本次通話計劃持續到太平洋時間下午 3:00。

And, as always, we ask that you limit questions to one per firm, with a very brief follow-up, so that we can accommodate as many questions as possible.

而且，與往常一樣，我們要求您將問題限制在每家公司一個，並進行非常簡短的跟進，以便我們能夠容納盡可能多的問題。

As a reminder, a webcast replay of this call will be available later this afternoon on our website.

提醒一下，今天下午晚些時候將在我們的網站上提供此次電話會議的網絡重播。

With that, I'll now hand the call over to Martin.

有了這個，我現在把電話交給馬丁。

Thank you, Carol, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝你，Carol，大家下午好。

I'll start today by commenting on our performance in the June quarter and 2014 fiscal year.

今天，我將從評論我們在 6 月季度和 2014 財年的表現開始。

Then provide a little more color on our view for the outlook of wafer fab equipment spending in the second half of calendar 2014 and the full year 2015.

然後為我們對 2014 年下半年和 2015 年全年晶圓廠設備支出前景的看法提供更多色彩。

Before transitioning to Doug I will conclude with thoughts on Lam's growth and describe areas of focus for the Company.

在過渡到 Doug 之前，我將總結對 Lam 成長的看法，並描述公司的重點領域。

This should provide you with helpful context.

這應該為您提供有用的上下文。

In the June quarter, Lam continued the trend of outperformance, and we delivered another quarter of strong execution across the Business.

在 6 月季度，Lam 繼續表現優異，我們在整個業務領域實現了又一個季度的強勁執行。

Results topped the midpoints of our guided ranges across all metrics, reinforcing our confidence in our recently updated long-term financial models.

結果超過了我們所有指標指導範圍的中點，增強了我們對最近更新的長期財務模型的信心。

The June quarter marks the end of our fiscal year, a truly remarkable year for Lam.

六月季度標誌著我們財政年度的結束，這對 Lam 來說是非常了不起的一年。

In a period of transformation within our Company and the industry generally, we reported record revenues in each successive quarter, and operating income that more than doubled year over year.

在我們公司和整個行業的轉型時期，我們連續每個季度報告了創紀錄的收入，營業收入同比增長了一倍以上。

We believe that a major theme for Lam in our recent year and, more importantly, in our future is the opportunity for sustainable outperformance.

我們相信，在我們最近一年，更重要的是，在我們的未來，Lam 的一個主要主題是可持續超越表現的機會。

This is made possible through our position and focus on market leadership in the segments of WFE that we serve, our critical applications growth strategy targeted to deliver leading-edge solutions through significant technology inflections, and our demonstrated ability to execute predictably, meeting commitments to the full community of stakeholders.

這得益於我們在所服務的 WFE 細分市場中的地位和專注於市場領導地位，我們的關鍵應用增長戰略旨在通過重大技術變化提供領先的解決方案，以及我們展示的可預測執行能力，履行對利益相關者的完整社區。

These strengths all combined to provide a path for Lam to create value of substance for shareholders over the next several years, value creation that should accelerate with continued execution in our markets as they represent an expanding proportion of WFE due to the primary technology inflections, most notably in areas related to patterning, 3D devices, and advanced packaging.

這些優勢結合在一起，為 Lam 在未來幾年為股東創造實質價值提供了一條途徑，隨著我們市場的持續執行，價值創造應該會加速，因為由於主要技術變化，它們代表了 WFE 的不斷擴大的比例，大多數特別是在與圖案化、3D 設備和先進封裝相關的領域。

Overall we estimate that approximately 25% of total WFE investments this year will be directly associated with the inflection technologies.

總體而言，我們估計今年 WFE 總投資中約有 25% 將與變形技術直接相關。

And based on the importance of these enabling transitions to our customers and the current pace of pilots and production ramps, we maintain our view of WFE spending within a $32 billion range.

基於這些對我們的客戶有利的過渡的重要性以及目前的試點和生產增長速度，我們維持對 WFE 支出在 320 億美元範圍內的看法。

For our Company, due to the complement of our strengths with the spending bias of our customers, we continue to remain optimistic that the second half of calendar 2014 can achieve a revenue level reasonably similar to the first half of the year.

對本公司而言，由於我們的優勢與客戶的消費偏好相輔相成，我們繼續對 2014 年下半年能夠達到與上半年相當的收入水平保持樂觀。

Although much can change, at this time it would be fair to characterize that we expect December to be stronger than September.

儘管可能會發生很大變化，但此時可以公平地描述我們預計 12 月將強於 9 月。

Now to the segment details.

現在到細分細節。

Starting with NAND flash memory, we continue to see balance between supply and demand of bits, as sustainable profitability continues to be a strong customer focus.

從 NAND 閃存開始，我們繼續看到比特的供需平衡，因為可持續的盈利能力仍然是客戶關注的焦點。

We believe that customers are supplementing and converting capacity in a very rational manner, with WFE spending relatively consistent with earlier expectations.

我們認為客戶正在以非常理性的方式補充和轉換產能，WFE 的支出與之前的預期相對一致。

Investment is focused on 16-nanometer and below planar conversions, as well as initial 3D NAND capacity.

投資主要集中在 16 納米及以下平面轉換，以及初始 3D NAND 產能。

As noted at our investor and analyst event recently, we continue to expect planar investments to represent the majority of NAND's WFE spending this year, representing approximately two-thirds of the total.

正如我們最近在我們的投資者和分析師活動中指出的那樣，我們繼續預計平面投資將佔 NAND 今年 WFE 支出的大部分，約佔總數的三分之二。

Our outlook for 2014 NAND supply bit growth remains in the lower 40% range.

我們對 2014 年 NAND 供應位增長的展望仍保持在 40% 的較低範圍內。

In DRAM we saw continued strength and investments in the June quarter.

在 DRAM 方面，我們在 6 月季度看到了持續的實力和投資。

Strong DRAM ASPs with a supply-constrained market are underpinning an industry focused on realizing healthy returns on investments made.

市場供應受限的強勁 DRAM ASP 正在支撐著一個專注於實現健康投資回報的行業。

Accordingly, investments are primarily being made to enable the transition to mid 2X and below technology nodes, transitions which we believe offer meaningful value to customers from a very efficient upgrade-oriented spending.

因此，投資主要用於實現向中間 2X 及以下技術節點的過渡，我們認為這些過渡通過非常有效的面向升級的支出為客戶提供了有意義的價值。

Projections for DRAM bit growth are approximately 30% this year.

今年 DRAM 位增長的預測約為 30%。

Overall in memory we maintain our projection for 2014 WFE at $12 billion to $13 billion.

總體而言，我們將 2014 年 WFE 的預測維持在 120 億至 130 億美元。

Lastly, in both the foundry and broader logic segments, our outlook remains more or less consistent with the prior view.

最後，在代工和更廣泛的邏輯領域，我們的前景或多或少與之前的觀點一致。

The ramp plans for 20-nanometer foundry and 14-nanometer logic appear, from our perspective, to be progressing largely as expected, with the foundry focused on 20-nanometer investments in the first half of the year, and the second half of the year weighted to early FinFET purchases and a broadening of participants.

從我們的角度來看，20 納米晶圓代工和 14 納米邏輯器件的爬坡計劃似乎在很大程度上按預期進行，晶圓代工在上半年和下半年專注於 20 納米投資加權到早期的 FinFET 購買和參與者的擴大。

Restating my earlier message, we expect WFE at the $32 billion level in calendar year 2014, and revenues at Lam that materially outperform to that baseline year-over-year comparison.

重申我之前的信息，我們預計 WFE 在 2014 日曆年將達到 320 億美元的水平，而 Lam 的收入將大大優於基線同比比較。

For 2015, we continue to believe that WFE spending levels are biased to be stronger than 2014, with key opportunity and risk being defined by success of latest generation devices, utilizing new enabling technology measured by performance and cost benefits in their markets, and the conviction of participants to grow profitably in an increasingly consolidated and competitive semiconductor industry.

對於 2015 年，我們仍然認為 WFE 支出水平傾向於高於 2014 年，關鍵機會和風險取決於最新一代設備的成功、利用以性能和成本效益衡量的新使能技術，以及信念的參與者在日益整合和競爭日益激烈的半導體行業中實現盈利增長。

For Lam, we believe that the share of WFE that will be attributed to markets that we serve will increase as technology inflections become more mainstream, and represent perhaps approximately one-third of total spending next year by our customers.

對於 Lam，我們相信，隨著技術變化變得更加主流，我們所服務市場的 WFE 份額將會增加，並且可能占我們客戶明年總支出的三分之一左右。

Combined with this SAM growth outperformance, we believe that our technology inflections applications market share is in excess of 50% across the portfolio of deposition, etch and clean products.

結合這種 SAM 的增長表現，我們相信我們的技術影響應用市場份額在沉積、蝕刻和清潔產品組合中超過 50%。

We remain excited by this unique opportunity, and work hard each day to meet our commitments and continuously strengthen the trust that our customers place in our Company and the individuals who work here.

我們對這個獨特的機會仍然感到興奮，每天都在努力履行我們的承諾，並不斷加強我們的客戶對我們公司和在這里工作的個人的信任。

This commitment to outperformance and execution is evidenced in our reported 90% success rate in targeted penetration and defense activities in the first half of calendar 2014.

我們在 2014 年上半年報告的有針對性的滲透和防禦活動的成功率達到了 90%，證明了這種對卓越績效和執行力的承諾。

This is one of the most fundamental measures of the trust in Lam and the quality of our people, our product and technology road map, and our ability to execute.

這是衡量對 Lam 的信任以及我們的員工素質、我們的產品和技術路線圖以及我們的執行能力的最基本衡量標準之一。

Our momentum, particularly in the most challenging critical applications, is enabled by our commitment to invest in the inflections for the long-term and emphasis on customer collaboration in pursuit of solutions to their most critical challenges.

我們的動力，尤其是在最具挑戰性的關鍵應用中，是由於我們致力於長期投資於變化，並強調客戶協作以尋求解決他們最關鍵挑戰的解決方案。

Execution in these areas is underpinned by the fact that we have shipped 17 new product configurations in the last 12 months, marking, perhaps, the most active period of innovation in our Company -- in a company that has long prided itself on its innovation at the leading edge.

在過去 12 個月中，我們已經交付了 17 種新產品配置，這可能標誌著我們公司最活躍的創新時期——這家公司長期以來一直以其創新而自豪，這為這些領域的執行奠定了基礎。前沿。

Our focus areas are on the critical path for our customers.

我們的重點領域是我們客戶的關鍵路徑。

And this shared value proposition is providing significant growth opportunities for Lam.

這種共同的價值主張為 Lam 提供了重要的增長機會。

Illustratively, our leadership in the patterning area is aligned with customers' needs for scaling solutions in advance of next-generation litho.

舉例來說，我們在圖案化領域的領先地位與客戶在下一代光刻之前對縮放解決方案的需求保持一致。

Our leadership in back-end-of-line clean is aligned with customers' critical yield initiatives.

我們在後端清潔方面的領先地位與客戶的關鍵產量計劃保持一致。

As we discussed in some detail recently, we're also focused on expanding our engagement with customers related to their installed base, partnering to achieve the level of performance they need to be successful over the long term.

正如我們最近詳細討論的那樣，我們還專注於擴大與與其安裝基礎相關的客戶的互動，合作以實現他們長期成功所需的性能水平。

An opportunity exists for Lam to differentiate itself through comprehensive and configurable lifecycle solutions, partnering with our customers to innovate through the economic challenges of scaling.

Lam 有機會通過全面且可配置的生命週期解決方案實現差異化，與我們的客戶合作，通過擴展帶來的經濟挑戰進行創新。

That is a key focus for our customer service business group.

這是我們客戶服務業務組的重點。

The capability to rapidly address customers' challenges with innovative and cost-effective solutions, combined with increasing level of support we are receiving from customers globally, is fundamental to executing our vision.

通過創新且具有成本效益的解決方案快速應對客戶挑戰的能力，以及我們從全球客戶那裡獲得的不斷提高的支持水平，是實現我們願景的基礎。

Neither the outperformance we have delivered to date, nor the opportunities presented here, would be possible without successful collaborations with our customers and partners more broadly through the industry.

如果沒有與我們的客戶和合作夥伴在整個行業中更廣泛地成功合作，我們迄今為止所提供的出色表現和這裡所呈現的機會都是不可能的。

We thank them all sincerely, and are delighted by the recognition we have received for our efforts.

我們衷心感謝他們，並為我們的努力獲得的認可感到高興。

As we shared a couple of weeks ago, the next six months are a very busy period for us at the customer interface, supporting their most critical ramps, and focusing on the significant number of equipment selection decisions outstanding for this year, staying aligned with our customer on their needs, planning and executing accordingly.

正如我們幾週前分享的那樣，接下來的六個月對我們來說是客戶界面非常繁忙的時期，支持他們最關鍵的坡道，並專注於今年未決的大量設備選擇決策，與我們的保持一致客戶的需求，相應地計劃和執行。

As you might expect, for a company that is targeted to grow between 20% and 25% year over year in calendar 2014, in turn creating approximately $1 billion of cash from operations; for a company with a vision to grow meaningfully through a multi-year technology inflection period, Lam leadership is committed to successful scaling of our Company in a manner that is transparent and value-creating for our customers and shareholders.

如您所料，對於一家目標是在 2014 年實現同比增長 20% 至 25% 的公司，進而從運營中創造大約 10 億美元的現金；對於一家有遠見在多年技術轉折期實現有意義增長的公司，Lam 領導層致力於以透明的方式成功擴展我們的公司，並為我們的客戶和股東創造價值。

In conclusion, and notwithstanding the formidable strengths of our competitors, we continue to believe we are well-positioned to outperform in the coming years.

總而言之，儘管我們的競爭對手擁有強大的實力，但我們仍然相信我們有能力在未來幾年中超越競爭對手。

We plan to execute to win key applications.

我們計劃執行以贏得關鍵應用程序。

And with a $2 billion SAM expansion opportunity through calendar 2017, we are very excited about a future of growth.

到 2017 年，SAM 有 20 億美元的擴張機會，我們對未來的增長感到非常興奮。

Last but not least, I would like to recognize the Lam team, the full complement of 6,700 employees globally who worked tirelessly through a complex and transformative period for the Company, who believed in the opportunity and prioritized their role modeling our values of customer first, company, and then individual, and achieving our vision objective of being number one in customer trust above all else.

最後但同樣重要的是，我要感謝 Lam 團隊，他們是全球 6,700 名員工，他們在公司的複雜和變革時期不知疲倦地工作，他們相信機會，並優先考慮他們的榜樣，我們的客戶至上價值觀，公司，然後是個人，並實現我們的願景目標，即在客戶信任中排名第一。

Many thanks to everybody.

非常感謝大家。

With that I'll hand the call over to Doug.

有了這個，我會把電話交給道格。

Okay, thanks, Martin.

好的，謝謝，馬丁。

Good afternoon, everyone.

大家下午好。

And I want to thank you today for joining us during what I know is a busy earnings season for you guys.

我今天要感謝你們在我所知道的對你們來說是一個繁忙的收益季節加入我們。

Let me just begin by saying we're very pleased with the results from our June quarter, which top off a very strong performance for fiscal year 2014.

首先讓我說，我們對 6 月季度的結果非常滿意，這為 2014 財年的強勁表現奠定了基礎。

Operating income continued to outpace revenue growth, growing at roughly twice the rate, both in the quarter as well as in the year.

營業收入繼續超過收入增長，在本季度和當年均以大約兩倍的速度增長。

Gross margin and earnings per share both came in above the midpoint of our guidance, demonstrating the strength of our business model.

毛利率和每股收益均高於我們指引的中點，顯示了我們商業模式的實力。

We continued to execute on our plans to outperform the industry around the key technology inflections, as well as to deliver on our financial commitments.

我們繼續執行我們的計劃，以在關鍵技術變化方面超越行業，並兌現我們的財務承諾。

Shipments in the June quarter were above the midpoint of our guidance range at $1.160 billion, which was down about $100 million sequentially but up slightly when you compare it to the December quarter.

6 月季度的出貨量高於我們指導範圍的中點 11.6 億美元，環比下降約 1 億美元，但與 12 月季度相比略有上升。

The memory segment represented 59% of total system shipments, and that was down from 66% in the March quarter.

內存部分佔系統總出貨量的 59%，低於第三季度的 66%。

Within that, NAND shipments contributed approximately 20% of total system shipments.

其中，NAND 出貨量約佔系統總出貨量的 20%。

And I'd just point out, we still anticipate that planar NAND node conversions will represent the majority of NAND investments for the full year.

我只想指出，我們仍然預計平面 NAND 節點轉換將佔全年 NAND 投資的大部分。

And we do expect to see an increase in planar investments in the back half of the calendar year.

我們確實預計今年下半年平面投資會有所增加。

DRAM shipments were strong at 39% of system shipments.

DRAM 出貨量強勁，佔系統出貨量的 39%。

And that was up from 30% in the March quarter.

這比三月份季度的 30% 有所上升。

With healthy pricing in the DRAM market, and supply remaining tight relative to demand, we've seen an increase in spending to support both 25-nanometer and 20-nanometer node conversions.

隨著 DRAM 市場的健康定價，以及相對於需求的供應仍然緊張，我們看到支持 25 納米和 20 納米節點轉換的支出有所增加。

Our successful product positions for multi-patterning applications continue to be a tailwind with respect to the DRAM segment.

我們在多模式應用方面的成功產品定位繼續成為 DRAM 領域的順風車。

Foundry shipments were 30% of total system shipments.

代工出貨量佔系統總出貨量的 30%。

And this was up from 28% in the prior quarter.

這比上一季度的 28% 有所上升。

We expect to see a strengthening in foundry investment in the second half of the calendar year, with a broadening of the customer base investing in FinFET pilot production, as well as additional investments in the 28- and 20-nanometer nodes.

我們預計下半年晶圓代工投資將加強，投資於 FinFET 試生產的客戶群擴大，以及對 28 和 20 納米節點的額外投資。

And, finally, logic and other shipments comprised 11% of total system shipments, and this was up from 6% in the March quarter.

最後，邏輯和其他出貨量佔系統總出貨量的 11%，高於 3 月季度的 6%。

Revenue for the June quarter came in at $1.249 billion, setting a new high for the fifth consecutive quarter.

6 月份季度的收入為 12.49 億美元，連續第五個季度創下新高。

June gross margin percentage came in at 46.4%, an increase of about 90 basis points compared to the March quarter.

6 月份的毛利率為 46.4%，與 3 月份季度相比增加了約 90 個基點。

And as we shared with you in the past, business volumes and overall business mix contributed to the variability in our gross margin performance.

正如我們過去與您分享的那樣，業務量和整體業務組合導致了我們毛利率表現的可變性。

And we expect to see fluctuation in gross margins on a quarterly basis.

我們預計毛利率會出現季度波動。

Our operating expenses were within our expectations for the June quarter at $322 million, holding steady at about 26% of revenue.

我們的運營費用在我們對 6 月季度 3.22 億美元的預期之內，穩定在收入的 26% 左右。

We continue to prudently manage SG&A costs to allow us to appropriately fund strategic development programs that are expected to generate growth in future revenues.

我們將繼續審慎地管理 SG&A 成本，以使我們能夠適當地資助預計將在未來收入增長的戰略發展計劃。

Our R&D spending is focused at the leading edge technology nodes, as well as the technology inflections that you heard us talk about during our investor meeting earlier this month.

我們的研發支出集中在前沿技術節點，以及您在本月早些時候的投資者會議上聽到我們談論的技術變化。

We are spending on products in etch and deposition that will move us farther into atomic scale processing.

我們在蝕刻和沈積產品上投資，這將使我們進一步進入原子級加工。

We are spending on products in clean to deliver next-generation yield solutions for our customers.

我們在清潔產品上投入資金，為我們的客戶提供下一代產量解決方案。

Operating income delivered in the June quarter was $258 million, and this was up about $10 million from the March quarter.

6 月季度實現的營業收入為 2.58 億美元，比 3 月季度增加了約 1000 萬美元。

Our operating margin came in at 20.6%, above the midpoint of our guidance range, reflecting the leverage in our model.

我們的營業利潤率為 20.6%，高於我們指導範圍的中點，反映了我們模型中的槓桿作用。

The tax rate for the June quarter was approximately 15%.

六月季度的稅率約為 15%。

I do expect this rate to rise somewhat as we move into our 2015 fiscal year.

隨著我們進入 2015 財年，我確實預計這一比率會有所上升。

I would be modeling a rate in the high teens for the near future.

我將在不久的將來模擬高青少年的比率。

This increase is driven by a more significant amount of our revenue being generated domestically where tax rates are a little bit higher.

這一增長是由我們在國內產生的大量收入推動的，而國內的稅率略高。

I should point out to you that this tax rate estimate does not include any benefit from the potential extension of the R&D tax credit in the United States.

我應該向您指出，這個稅率估計不包括美國研發稅收抵免的潛在擴展帶來的任何好處。

If that tax credit is extended it would lower our rate by 2 to 3 percentage points.

如果延長稅收抵免，我們的稅率會降低 2 到 3 個百分點。

The resulting earnings per share for the quarter came in at $1.25, and that was above the midpoint of our guidance range.

本季度的每股收益為 1.25 美元，高於我們指導範圍的中點。

The majority of the upside is attributable to our improved gross margin for the quarter.

大部分的上漲歸因於我們本季度毛利率的提高。

The earnings per share were based on a share count of roughly 173 million shares.

每股收益基於大約 1.73 億股的股票數量。

The share count includes the dilutive effect of 8.2 million shares from the 2041 convertible note.

股份數量包括 2041 年可轉換票據的 820 萬股的攤薄效應。

And I'll just remind you that the dilution schedules for this note, as well as now the 2016 and 2018 notes, are posted on our Investor Relations website to help you with your modeling.

我只想提醒您，本票據以及現在的 2016 年和 2018 年票據的稀釋時間表已發佈在我們的投資者關係網站上，以幫助您進行建模。

As our share price has ticked up in the last quarter, modeling the dilutive impact from our converts now requires looking at all three of the notes.

由於我們的股價在上個季度有所上漲，現在需要查看所有三個票據來模擬我們轉換的稀釋影響。

Cash from operations was robust at $246 million generated in the June quarter, and this was about 20% of revenue.

運營現金強勁，在 6 月季度產生了 2.46 億美元，約佔收入的 20%。

Cash from operations benefited from continued focus on working capital metrics.

運營現金受益於對營運資本指標的持續關注。

Days sales outstanding improved in June to 58 days, and that compared to 61 days in the March quarter.

6 月份的未結銷售天數增加至 58 天，而 3 月份季度為 61 天。

Inventory turns did decline slightly as we added a little bit of inventory for future business growth.

庫存周轉率確實略有下降，因為我們為未來的業務增長增加了一點庫存。

Now let me turn to the balance sheet.

現在讓我談談資產負債表。

We ended the quarter with gross cash and short-term investments, which includes our restricted cash, of $3.2 billion.

我們以 32 億美元的總現金和短期投資（包括我們的受限現金）結束本季度。

This was up 11% from $2.9 billion in the March quarter.

這比第三季度的 29 億美元增長了 11%。

Cash in the quarter was bolstered by $135 million from the sale of some nonessential real estate assets.

通過出售一些非必要的房地產資產，本季度的現金增加了 1.35 億美元。

We had deferred revenue of $362 million, which does not include $34 million in shipments to Japanese customers which will convert to revenue in future quarters.

我們的遞延收入為 3.62 億美元，其中不包括將在未來幾個季度轉化為收入的向日本客戶發貨的 3400 萬美元。

And I'll just remind you, on April 29 we announced that the Board of Directors approved a $1 billion capital return program, which consists of an $850 million share repurchase authorization, along with the first quarterly dividend in the 34-year history of the Company.

我只想提醒你，4 月 29 日，我們宣布董事會批准了一項 10 億美元的資本回報計劃，其中包括 8.5 億美元的股票回購授權，以及 34 年曆史上的第一個季度股息。公司。

During the June quarter we spent $36 million on the repurchase of approximately 624,000 shares at an average price of $56.89.

在 6 月季度，我們以 56.89 美元的平均價格回購了大約 624,000 股股票，花費了 3600 萬美元。

We expect to complete the balance of the share repurchases over the next two years.

我們預計在未來兩年內完成股票回購的餘額。

The quarterly dividend was initiated at $0.18 per share, which was paid out on July 2. The scope of the capital return program demonstrates the confidence we and the Board of Directors have in the cash-generation capability of this Company.

季度股息最初為每股 0.18 美元，於 7 月 2 日支付。資本回報計劃的範圍表明我們和董事會對該公司的現金產生能力充滿信心。

Let me now turn to our non-GAAP guidance for the September quarter.

現在讓我談談我們對 9 月季度的非 GAAP 指導。

We expect shipments to come in at $1.110 billion, plus or minus a range of $50 million.

我們預計出貨量將達到 11.1 億美元，上下浮動 5000 萬美元。

We expect revenue of $1.150 billion, again plus or minus $50 million.

我們預計收入為 11.5 億美元，同樣是正負 5000 萬美元。

Shipments and revenue reflect a sequential decline in total memory spending, offset by a growth in foundry spending.

出貨量和收入反映了總內存支出的連續下降，但被代工支出的增長所抵消。

We expect gross margin to come in at 45.5% plus or minus 1 percentage point.

我們預計毛利率將達到 45.5% 正負 1 個百分點。

We are forecasting operating margins of 17.5% plus or minus 1 percentage point.

我們預測營業利潤率為 17.5% 正負 1 個百分點。

And, finally, we forecast earnings per share of $0.92, plus or minus $0.07, based on a share count of approximately 177 million shares.

最後，基於大約 1.77 億股的股票數量，我們預測每股收益為 0.92 美元，上下浮動 0.07 美元。

And I'd just like to pause for a moment and point out to you that within the midpoint of this EPS guidance, is the impact of roughly $0.05 from the incremental dilution from the converts, as well as the increase in tax rate.

我想暫停片刻並向您指出，在此每股收益指導的中點範圍內，轉換者的增量稀釋以及稅率增加帶來了大約 0.05 美元的影響。

Operator, that concludes my prepared remarks.

接線員，我準備好的發言到此結束。

Martin and I would now like to open up the call for questions.

馬丁和我現在想打開提問的電話。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

CJ Muse, ISI Group.

CJ Muse，ISI 集團。

Good afternoon.

下午好。

Thank you for taking my question.

謝謝你接受我的問題。

First question, in terms of the implied guide for second-half revenues consistent with the first half, it looks like you're looking at revenues growing roughly 15% sequentially in the December quarter.

第一個問題，就下半年收入與上半年一致的隱含指南而言，您似乎看到的是 12 月季度的收入環比增長約 15%。

The question there is, one, can you talk about visibility; and then, two, how much of that will be an increase in shipments versus a drawdown of deferred revenues?

有一個問題，你能談談知名度嗎？然後，兩個，其中有多少將是出貨量的增加與遞延收入的減少？

I think the first thing to say is visibility for something six months away isn't as good as the visibility three months away.

我認為首先要說的是六個月後的能見度不如三個月後的能見度。

But we certainly do our best, CJ, to give you an appropriate linkage between commentary from the customers and the opportunity for the Company.

但我們當然會盡最大努力，CJ，為您提供客戶評論與公司機會之間的適當聯繫。

I will remind you that I said approximately similar, not precisely the same.

我會提醒你，我說的大致相似，而不是完全相同。

So, first half, second half, side.

所以，上半場，下半場，邊路。

I'd be sensitive to being a little too precise in the calculation here.

我會對這裡的計算過於精確很敏感。

But for all intents and purposes, we believe we've got a revenue opportunity and expansion between September and December, and will be approximately equal first half and second half.

但出於所有意圖和目的，我們相信我們在 9 月至 12 月之間獲得了收入機會和擴張，並且上半年和下半年大致相等。

We don't typically disclose our backlog in orders in a conversation like this.

我們通常不會在這樣的對話中披露我們的積壓訂單。

Obviously we're about to file a 10-K and there will be a backlog number in there.

顯然，我們即將提交一份 10-K，其中會有一個積壓的編號。

But I will comment that the backlog for the Company, the difference between the orders received from customers and shipments made to customers has built by more than $200 million in the last two quarters.

但我要評論的是，公司的積壓訂單，從客戶那裡收到的訂單與發給客戶的出貨量之間的差異在過去兩個季度已經增加了 2 億多美元。

So, we're building backlog.

所以，我們正在建立積壓。

And, frankly speaking, the relationship between shipments and revenues is reasonably consistent from one period to another.

而且，坦率地說，出貨量和收入之間的關係從一個時期到另一個時期是相當一致的。

So, in answer to the second part of your question, is it a drawdown -- it would only ever be a drawdown if the circumstances of the customer were causing us to respond to their request that way.

因此，在回答您的問題的第二部分時，它是否是提款 - 只有當客戶的情況導致我們以這種方式回應他們的請求時，它才會是提款。

But there isn't a fundamental message on ship and revenue turns that would undermine the outlook that we've shared with you.

但是沒有關於船舶和收入轉變的基本信息會破壞我們與您分享的前景。

That's very helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then, Doug, if I could ask you a quick question here.

然後，Doug，我可以在這裡問你一個簡單的問題。

In terms of greater cash generated here in the US, how does that change your thinking in terms of perhaps being more aggressive on buybacks and/or upside to that $850 million?

就在美國產生的更多現金而言，這將如何改變您對可能更積極地進行回購和/或上漲至 8.5 億美元的想法？

It doesn't really.

它不是真的。

The two are not related in my mind, CJ.

CJ，我認為這兩者沒有關係。

We announced the capital return program before I had really modeled what I expected the tax rate for the next fiscal year to be.

在我真正模擬下一個財政年度的預期稅率之前，我們宣布了資本回報計劃。

So, in my mind it's not interrelated.

所以，在我看來，這不是相互關聯的。

And, again, the uptick, just to clarify, in the tax rate has a lot to do with the fact that we are just shipping more systems into the US, which has a higher tax rate than when we ship them elsewhere.

而且，再次澄清，稅率的上升與我們只是向美國運送更多系統的事實有很大關係，美國的稅率比我們在其他地方運送時更高。

But the two things are independent in my mind, CJ.

但在我看來，這兩件事是獨立的，CJ。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝你。

Timothy Arcuri, Cowen and Company.

Timothy Arcuri，考恩公司。

Thanks a lot.

非常感謝。

Just, Doug, a question on calendar Q4.

只是，道格，關於日曆 Q4 的問題。

I know that you don't want to talk too much about it.

我知道你不想談論太多。

But if you just look at your guidance to grow the revenue between 20% and 25% for the year and you take the midpoint, certainly it suggests that the revenue in December is going to be a little bit better than what it was in June.

但是，如果你只看你的指導意見，即今年的收入增長 20% 到 25% 並取中點，那肯定表明 12 月份的收入將比 6 月份好一點。

And I'm wondering, from a gross margin perspective, is there anything abnormal in the shipment concentration in what's likely to ship in December that would make gross margin or the profile any different?

我想知道，從毛利率的角度來看，12 月可能發貨的貨物集中度是否有任何異常，這會使毛利率或概況有所不同？

Because then that would argue that your gross margin should be better in December that it was in June.

因為那樣會證明你在 12 月份的毛利率應該比 6 月份更好。

Thanks.

謝謝。

I don't know, Tim, you know I'm not going to answer that question.

我不知道，蒂姆，你知道我不會回答這個問題。

We're not going to get into giving hard guidance more than one quarter out.

我們不會給出超過四分之一的硬性指導。

I think your thinking on the top line is probably directionally right.

我認為您對頂線的想法可能在方向上是正確的。

I haven't quite gone through where all of the mix would fall out.

我還沒有完全經歷過所有混合會脫落的地方。

I would take you back, though, to the financial models that we put out as the best guideposts for how I would be thinking about the profitability and the gross margin of the Company, Tim.

不過，我會帶你回到我們提出的財務模型，作為我如何思考公司盈利能力和毛利率的最佳指南，蒂姆。

Okay, great, thanks.

好的，太好了，謝謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

And then, Martin, can you talk a little bit about, are there concrete examples -- I know you probably don't want to get too much into the specifics -- but are there examples, when you talk to your customers, that you have gained share or you've gained a slot as a result of the ongoing proposed merger that's happening out there with your larger peers?

然後，馬丁，你能談談嗎，有沒有具體的例子——我知道你可能不想過多地討論細節——但是當你和你的客戶交談時，有沒有例子，你已經獲得了份額，或者您已經獲得了由於正在進行的與更大的同行進行合併而獲得的席位？

Are there any examples of you absolutely gaining share as a result of that merger?

有沒有任何例子表明你因為那次合併而絕對獲得了份額？

Thanks.

謝謝。

There's absolutely a lot of evidence that we're gaining share.

絕對有很多證據表明我們正在獲得份額。

Whether it's precisely a byproduct of the customers' reaction to a planned merger or not is a conversation I don't waste my time having with the customer, honestly.

老實說，無論這是否正是客戶對計劃合併的反應的副產品，我都不會浪費時間與客戶進行對話。

I am sure that the value proposition, to the extent the customers are not positive - and you will need to talk to customers directly to figure out whether they are or are not -- but to the extent that they are not positive about that planned merger, my personal opinion is the benefit is a more medium- and long-term benefit to the Company, not short-term, for the simple reason that it takes a long time to make changes to market share at this company.

我相信價值主張，在客戶不積極的情況下——你需要直接與客戶交談以確定他們是否積極——但在他們對計劃中的合併不積極的情況下，我個人的看法是，這個收益對公司來說是一個比較中長期的收益，而不是短期的，原因很簡單，這個公司的市場份額變化需要很長時間。

And when you get selected or you're working on a selection, they tend to stick pretty well.

當你被選中或者你正在做一個選擇時，他們往往會很好地堅持下去。

I'm sure there is an example or two along the way where we might be able to claim it was because of reaction.

我敢肯定，在此過程中有一兩個例子我們可以聲稱這是因為反應。

But, frankly speaking, I think it's not a conversation we tend to have.

但是，坦率地說，我認為這不是我們傾向於進行的對話。

We just focus on delivering the best solution that we can, and focusing on established differentiation in the critical application space.

我們只專注於提供我們可以提供的最佳解決方案，並專注於在關鍵應用領域建立差異化。

And we try to articulate that in our forward-looking targets.

我們試圖在我們的前瞻性目標中闡明這一點。

And we try to articulate it at the most recent analysts call by reminding everybody that in the patterning space we're addressing two-thirds of all the multi-patterning critical steps.

在最近的分析師電話會議上，我們試圖通過提醒大家在圖案空間中解決三分之二的多圖案關鍵步驟來闡明這一點。

And in the 3D NAND conversion, we have 90% position on the critical applications across all memory customers, and more than 60% on all applications.

在 3D NAND 轉換中，我們在所有內存客戶的關鍵應用上佔有 90% 的位置，在所有應用上佔有超過 60% 的位置。

So, gaining share and growing our Company is all about critical applications focus and inflections.

因此，獲得份額和發展我們的公司都是關於關鍵應用程序的重點和變化。

And if along the way, whether it's associated with a reaction to a competitor merger plan or not, if we gain other business by building customer trust then we're excited about that opportunity, as well.

如果在此過程中，無論是否與對競爭對手合併計劃的反應有關，如果我們通過建立客戶信任來獲得其他業務，那麼我們也會對這個機會感到興奮。

Awesome, Martin.

太棒了，馬丁。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

John Pitzer, Credit Suisse.

約翰·皮策，瑞士信貸。

Good afternoon, guys.

下午好，伙計們。

Thanks for letting me as the question.

謝謝你讓我提問。

Martin, my first question just relates to some incremental news on EUV that was out in the market today that clearly impacted, I think, your stock and some of your peers' stock.

馬丁，我的第一個問題與今天市場上出現的一些關於 EUV 的增量新聞有關，我認為這些新聞明顯影響了你的股票和一些同行的股票。

I'm curious, from your perspective, if the timing of EUV in your mind has changed all that much.

我很好奇，從你的角度來看，你心目中的 EUV 時間是否發生了很大變化。

I know you address this at Analyst Day but I'd be curious again to get a better understanding from your perspective, if EUV gets inserted quicker than we think what that might do to that $2 billion TAM opportunity that you've talked about?

我知道你在分析師日討論了這個問題，但我很想再次從你的角度更好地理解，如果 EUV 的插入速度比我們想像的要快，那可能會對你所說的 20 億美元的 TAM 機會產生什麼影響？

Very simply, my view of the intercept points on the EUV is no different today than it was the last time we were in public domain.

很簡單，我今天對 EUV 攔截點的看法與我們上一次進入公共領域時沒有什麼不同。

And relative to the impact of EUV insertions to the 2017 $2 billion SAM expansion, little or nothing of impact.

相對於 EUV 插入對 2017 年 20 億美元的 SAM 擴張的影響，影響很小或沒有影響。

And that's just the commentary that I would extract from the statements of our customers.

這只是我從客戶的陳述中提取的評論。

Our customers have almost, without exception, stated no intercept at 10-nanometer in logic.

我們的客戶幾乎無一例外地表示在邏輯上沒有截距 10 納米。

And maybe there's a back qual opportunity but it's one or two levels, one or two passes.

也許有一個後衛機會，但它是一兩個級別，一兩個傳球。

So, I think fundamentally no change in view of intercept, and no impact of substance to the $2 billion SAM expansion we articulated.

因此，我認為從攔截的角度來看基本上沒有變化，並且對我們所闡述的 20 億美元的 SAM 擴張沒有實質影響。

Martin, that's helpful.

馬丁，這很有幫助。

Then maybe as my follow-up, I know you talked about directionally WFE being up in calendar year 2015.

然後也許作為我的後續行動，我知道你談到了 WFE 在 2015 日曆年的定向發展。

I'm wondering if you could attempt to quantify that, or, at least if not quantify, qualify the puts and takes within the broader buckets of NAND, DRAM and FinFET.

我想知道您是否可以嘗試量化這一點，或者至少如果不量化，則在更廣泛的 NAND、DRAM 和 FinFET 桶中限定看跌期權。

And I'm particularly interested in FinFET because the sense I get is that this time last year, looking a year out, the visibility on 20-nanometer seemed to be a lot more tangible than the visibility on 16/14-nanometer is for the next 12 months.

我對 FinFET 特別感興趣，因為我的感覺是去年這個時候，展望一年後，20 納米的可見性似乎比 16/14 納米的可見性更明顯。未來 12 個月。

Maybe if you can address that, that would be helpful.

也許如果你能解決這個問題，那會很有幫助。

I'm going to resist the temptation to respond quantitatively because it just feels too early to do that.

我將抵制定量回應的誘惑，因為這樣做感覺還為時過早。

But, as I said at the analyst meeting, I think there's two or three levels to the conclusion on bias to growth next year.

但是，正如我在分析師會議上所說，我認為關於明年增長偏向的結論有兩三個水平。

One of them is a statement of capital intensity.

其中之一是資本密集度聲明。

I think in each of these transitions, whether it's the patterning, the incremental patterning steps that we articulated, or in logic and DRAM, whether it's the incremental SAM expansion that exists in NAND Flash, and even in litho, I believe, there's an opinion that there's capital intensity increase in a planar to 3D NAND transition.

我認為在每一個轉變中，無論是我們闡明的圖案化、增量圖案化步驟，還是邏輯和 DRAM，無論是 NAND 閃存中存在的增量 SAM 擴展，甚至在光刻中，我相信，都有一種觀點平面到 3D NAND 過渡的資本密集度增加。

So, capital intensity, I think, is a part of the story.

所以，我認為，資本密集度是故事的一部分。

I think the general commentary on demand for electronics, consumer and enterprise, and IC units, if you begin with a GDP commentary, is a little bit more positive in 2015 that it is in 2014.

我認為，如果從 GDP 評論開始，對電子、消費和企業以及 IC 單位的需求的一般評論，在 2015 年會比 2014 年更積極一些。

I think the competitive dynamic that exists in a consolidated semiconductor world tends to deliver two things to us.

我認為在整合的半導體世界中存在的競爭動態往往會為我們帶來兩件事。

It tends to deliver discipline in spending and it creates very high risk-reward opportunities for growth for our customers.

它傾向於在支出方面提供紀律，並為我們的客戶創造非常高的風險回報機會。

And, so, I think there's a tremendous amount of conviction associated with establishing market share leadership positions through these technology inflections.

因此，我認為通過這些技術變化建立市場份額領導地位有很大的信心。

And clearly calendar 2015 is the first year of substance when we're going from pilot line investments into an HVM regime.

顯然，2015 年是我們從試點投資轉向 HVM 制度的第一年。

So, I look at the sum of all of the data points available to us, and none of them seem particularly negative, if negative at all.

因此，我查看了我們可用的所有數據點的總和，它們似乎都不是特別消極的，如果有的話。

We'll hold our breath, and maybe by the time we get to the October earnings call put a number out for you.

我們會屏住呼吸，也許在我們到達 10 月份的財報電話會議時，會為您提供一個數字。

But I would say at this point we expect WFE to be stronger, and we expect our share of that expansion to be a positive story, as well.

但我想說，在這一點上，我們預計 WFE 會變得更強大，我們預計我們在擴張中的份額也將是一個積極的故事。

Remember, our view on the proportion of WFE that's inflection-related goes from about 25% in calendar 2014 to approximately one-third in calendar 2015.

請記住，我們對與拐點相關的 WFE 比例的看法從 2014 年的約 25% 到 2015 年的約三分之一。

Thanks, guys.

多謝你們。

Harlan Sur, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的哈蘭蘇爾。

Good afternoon.

下午好。

Nice job on the quarterly execution.

在季度執行方面做得很好。

At your Analyst Day you mentioned inflection technology spend at about one-third of WFE spend next year versus 25% this year.

在您的分析師日上，您提到了明年在 WFE 支出中的約三分之一的拐點技術支出，而今年為 25%。

Looking at it at a more granular level, it seems like you still expect 3D NAND to exit this year at about 6% to 7% of total installed NAND capacity.

從更細化的角度來看，您似乎仍然預計今年 3D NAND 將佔 NAND 總安裝容量的 6% 到 7% 左右。

Can you just give us some numbers on where you expect 20-nanometer DRAM mix to be in terms of the installed capacity exiting this year?

您能否給我們一些關於您預計 20 納米 DRAM 組合在今年退出的裝機容量方面的數字？

What I'm trying to get at is or get a sense for is what is the upgrade tailwind as we look into 2015?

我想要了解或了解的是，我們展望 2015 年的升級順風是什麼？

When you say 20-nanometer did you say 20-nanometer DRAM or 20-nanometer --?

當您說 20 納米時，您是說 20 納米 DRAM 還是 20 納米——？

Yes, 20-nanometer DRAM.

是的，20 納米 DRAM。

I think the opportunity for a sustainable upgrade is pretty significant.

我認為可持續升級的機會非常重要。

Our estimate for the end of calendar 2014 is that there's probably 450,000 wafer starts per month of capacity at 3X or above, which is a pretty significant number.

我們對 2014 年年底的估計是，每月可能有 450,000 片晶圓的開工量達到 3 倍或以上，這是一個相當可觀的數字。

And our estimates on the 2X proportion by the end of the calendar year is still a pretty low number.

而我們對日曆年年底的 2 倍比例的估計仍然是一個相當低的數字。

So, I think conversion opportunity down to 20-nanometer is going to be a significant part of the story for calendar 2015, and even more so for the Company because of the transitions in terms of double patterning.

因此，我認為 20 納米以下的轉換機會將成為 2015 年日曆的重要組成部分，對於公司來說更是如此，因為在雙圖案方面的轉變。

I'll remind you that there are three to four steps of multi-patterning in a mid 2X technology node, and there are 15 to 20 steps of multi-patterning at 20-nanometer, and 30 to 40 steps at 1X.

我會提醒您，在中 2X 技術節點中有 3 到 4 步的多重圖案化，在 20 納米有 15 到 20 步的多重圖案，在 1X 有 30 到 40 步。

And as Dave Hemker our CTO explained in the analyst meeting, there are multiple passes for each one of those steps.

正如我們的首席技術官 Dave Hemker 在分析師會議上所解釋的那樣，每個步驟都有多個通過。

So, I think the story in terms of sustainable investment through upgrades is going to have a very prominent theme for WFE next year.

因此，我認為通過升級實現可持續投資的故事將成為明年 WFE 的一個非常突出的主題。

And I think it will be even stronger for the Company for the reasons I just stated.

由於我剛才所說的原因，我認為這對公司來說會更加強大。

Makes a lot of sense.

很有意義。

And then, Martin, within your balance first-half, second-half shipment outlook, last quarter you had anticipated a broadening out of the spenders in the second half.

然後，馬丁，在你平衡的上半年、下半年出貨量展望中，上個季度你預計下半年的支出會擴大。

Looking at your shipment guide for September and the pipeline for the second half of the year, is it unfolding this way?

看看你們 9 月份的發貨指南和下半年的管道，它是這樣展開的嗎？

I know you mentioned the broader base of spenders in logic and foundry.

我知道你提到了邏輯和代工領域更廣泛的消費者基礎。

Are you also seeing a broader set of customer spending in memory, as well, here in the second half?

在下半年，您是否也看到了更廣泛的客戶在內存方面的支出？

Harlan, this is Doug.

哈蘭，這是道格。

I'll take that one.

我會拿那個。

The memory spending, it's the same guys.

內存消耗，都是一樣的人。

In memory, when we look first half, second half, is maybe a little bit first-half weighted.

在記憶中，當我們看上半場、下半場時，可能會有點上半場的權重。

Foundry, conversely -- actually foundry and logic -- is a little bit second-half weighted.

相反，代工——實際上是代工和邏輯——有點偏向下半年。

And the broadening out that we described to you a quarter ago, we're absolutely still expecting to see.

以及我們在四分之一前向您描述的擴展，我們絕對仍然期待看到。

You're seeing a broadening out of people spending on FinFET.

您會看到人們在 FinFET 上的支出正在擴大。

We're seeing some investment at 28- and 20-nanometer, as well, and it's more substantial in terms of the number of people spending in the second half than the first.

我們也看到了一些 28 和 20 納米的投資，而且就下半年的消費人數而言，它比上半年更為可觀。

Got it.

知道了。

Okay, thank you very much.

好的，非常感謝。

Jim Covello, Goldman Sachs.

吉姆·科維羅，高盛。

Great, thanks so much for taking the question.

太好了，非常感謝您提出這個問題。

I appreciate it.

我很感激。

Martin, I hate to go back to the noise of the day, but I think it was important, as John Pitzer suggested relative to some of the stocks.

馬丁，我討厭回到當時的喧囂，但我認為這很重要，正如約翰·皮策相對於一些股票所建議的那樣。

Could you offer us your perspective just from a technical standpoint on, if indeed the wafers that IBM was talking about processing were processed without any photoresist on them, what exactly that would mean in terms of what kind of test that would be from an industry perspective and a technical perspective?

您能否僅從技術角度向我們提供您的觀點，如果 IBM 所討論的晶圓確實是在沒有任何光刻膠的情況下加工的，那麼從行業角度來看，這究竟意味著什麼？和技術角度？

I don't think -- I can give you some fairly superficial commentary.

我不認為——我可以給你一些相當膚淺的評論。

We're not the experts here, we're not qualified, and we don't know enough about what they stated.

我們不是這裡的專家，我們沒有資格，我們對他們所說的了解不夠。

I've read a bunch of reports.

我看過一堆報導。

I promise you, you know more than I do.

我向你保證，你知道的比我多。

That may be true.

這可能是真的。

But the basic headline for the Company is, the multiple patterning opportunities of growth for us are fundamental, they're real, and they're not likely impacted in the 2017 timeframe by an EUV conversation.

但公司的基本標題是，對我們來說，多重模式的增長機會是基本的，它們是真實的，而且在 2017 年的時間範圍內它們不太可能受到 EUV 對話的影響。

There's a tremendous amount of learning still ahead of the industry relative to EUV, very clear.

與 EUV 相關的行業還有大量的學習，非常清楚。

And every year that passes, the builds and installed base of alternatives in terms of etch and deposition systems for spacer-based DRAM multiple patterning, or immersion litho and etch systems in logic, every year that passes, the bigger the installed base is, the motivation for reuse is very significant.

每年過去，在基於間隔物的 DRAM 多重圖案化的蝕刻和沈積系統或邏輯中的浸入式光刻和蝕刻系統方面，替代方案的構建和安裝基礎，每年過去，安裝基礎越大，重用的動機非常重要。

And, so, the economic trade-off on the intercept actually is even more challenging, not less challenging, as every year passes.

因此，隨著時間的流逝，截距的經濟權衡實際上更具挑戰性，而不是更少的挑戰。

So, I don't know that people are really processing that.

所以，我不知道人們是否真的在處理這個問題。

But clearly the long-term benefit for the customer, if the productivity performance that is being described by ASML is achieved in a production environment, is a good thing for the industry and sustaining Moore's law.

但顯然，如果 ASML 所描述的生產力性能在生產環境中實現，那麼對於客戶的長期利益，對行業和維持摩爾定律是一件好事。

But in the meantime, we've got a lot of things to focus on.

但與此同時，我們有很多事情需要關注。

And certainly in the 2017 timeline I don't think there's much, if anything, to talk about today.

當然，在 2017 年的時間線中，我認為今天沒有什麼可談的。

That's helpful, thank you.

這很有幫助，謝謝。

As a follow-up, you and a lot of folks have talked a lot about the broadening out of the foundry spend, and the second-tier foundry customers starting to spend a little bit more money.

作為後續，你和很多人已經談論了很多關於擴大代工支出的話題，二線代工客戶開始花更多的錢。

Can you walk us all through a little bit of the differences in timing on when you may see orders and deliver shipments of some of the second-tier foundries versus some of the other peers in the industry, and how that could impact half on half growth?

您能否告訴我們一些二線代工廠與業內其他同行在何時看到訂單和交付貨物的時間差異，以及這將如何影響一半增長?

And even how that might affect your visibility into the early part of 2015 shipments to the extent that maybe some of those orders are coming for you in the back half of 2014, whereas some of those orders from the second-tier foundries might have come to some of your peers in the earlier part of 2014?

甚至這可能會如何影響您對 2015 年初出貨量的了解，以至於其中一些訂單可能會在 2014 年下半年為您提供，而其中一些來自二線代工廠的訂單可能已經到了你的一些同行在 2014 年上半年？

Not to be semantic, but to the best of my knowledge, there aren't so many equipment companies with a big backlog today.

不是語義上的，但據我所知，今天沒有那麼多設備公司有大量積壓。

So, it's much less about an orders conversation, and it's much more about the quality of the conversation and the demonstrated performance of the customer in that conversation to plans and commitments communicated to us.

因此，與其說是訂單對話，不如說是對話的質量以及客戶在對話中表現出的表現，以及傳達給我們的計劃和承諾。

And there is an expectation in our first half and second half that, as Doug said, the foundry business and the proportion of shipments in foundry have a meaningful increase.

而且我們上半年和下半年有一個預期，正如Doug所說，代工業務和代工的出貨量比例有一個有意義的增長。

And relative to concentration, just taking a quick look at numbers, there's not a customer in that population that's outside of -- the biggest guy on that list is 30% to 40% of our shipments.

相對於集中度，只要快速看一下數字，在這個人群中沒有一個客戶不在——名單上最大的人是我們出貨量的 30% 到 40%。

So, it's a fairly diverse participation level.

所以，這是一個相當多樣化的參與水平。

And it's happening at a time when there's a very unique and very critical opportunity to establish market share leadership in a FinFET device marketplace.

它發生在一個非常獨特且非常關鍵的機會，可以在 FinFET 器件市場中建立市場份額領導地位的時候。

And, so, when I think through risk, as I've said multiple times this year, I think the risk profile for calendar 2014 is actually pretty low.

因此，當我考慮風險時，正如我今年多次說過的那樣，我認為 2014 年日曆的風險狀況實際上相當低。

There's always an adjustment a little bit here or there, but that's, in the scheme of things, noise.

這里或那裡總是會有一些調整，但在事物的計劃中，那就是噪音。

Where things get a little bit more unpredictable is being able to articulate a view on transitions out of pilot lines for HVM.

事情變得更加不可預測的地方是能夠清晰地表達對 HVM 試驗線過渡的看法。

The headline is, there are only so many customers today for the equipment industry.

標題是，今天設備行業的客戶只有這麼多。

There are only so many semiconductor companies spending money adding leading-edge capacity.

只有這麼多的半導體公司花錢增加領先的產能。

And it is critically important that they validate their capability to do that so that when someone's in a marketplace, whether they're going to be a follower or a leader, with a competitive device in terms of performance or cost, they can move quickly.

至關重要的是，他們驗證自己的能力，這樣當某人進入市場時，無論他們是追隨者還是領導者，在性能或成本方面擁有具有競爭力的設備，他們都可以快速行動。

And, so, I actually don't feel like there's a tremendous amount of exposure to the commentary of the Company in the second half of the year.

而且，因此，我實際上並不覺得下半年公司的評論有大量曝光。

I might be wrong but that's how I feel.

我可能錯了，但這就是我的感受。

I feel like calendar 2015 is much more challenging to predict.

我覺得 2015 年日曆更難預測。

Very helpful, thank you.

很有幫助，謝謝。

Krish Sankar, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

美銀美林的 Krish Sankar。

Hi, thanks for taking my question.

您好，感謝您提出我的問題。

First one, Martin, I just wanted to see if you could take -- you highlighted how one-third of WFE next year would go to the inflections.

第一個，馬丁，我只是想看看你是否可以接受——你強調了明年三分之一的 WFE 將如何進入拐點。

If you were to take a swag, which would be the biggest bucket of spending among the one-third?

如果你要拿一個贓物，三分之一的人中哪一個是最大的支出？

Would it be the FinFET, 3D NAND or multi-patterning DRAM?

是 FinFET、3D NAND 還是多模式 DRAM？

Wow, that's a -- I thought you were going to ask me a slightly different question.

哇，那是——我以為你會問我一個稍微不同的問題。

Next year.

明年。

I've got an answer to that question for the three years.

三年來，我已經得到了這個問題的答案。

I don't know.

我不知道。

Rather than take a flyer at it I'm going to hold off.

與其拿傳單，我會推遲。

Clearly, in the $2 billion context, we have said that the foundry logic transitions, which is a mixture of patterning and the FinFET device, are the single largest proportion for us.

顯然，在 20 億美元的背景下，我們已經說過代工邏輯轉換，它是圖案化和 FinFET 器件的混合物，對我們來說是最大的單一比例。

Next is NAND flash, 3D NAND.

接下來是NAND閃存，3D NAND。

And the third in this is multi-patterning DRAM.

第三個是多模式DRAM。

And the fourth is advanced packaging.

四是先進封裝。

I guess it's a reasonable commentary, from what I just said, to conclude that the foundry implications in 3D NAND are greater than DRAM next year.

我想這是一個合理的評論，從我剛才所說的來看，明年 3D NAND 的代工影響將大於 DRAM。

But for our Company we clearly have very strong participation in DRAM, as well.

但對於我們公司來說，我們顯然也非常積極地參與了 DRAM。

Got it.

知道了。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then a question for Doug.

然後是道格的一個問題。

If I look at the margin structure, are there any other levers for improving the margin?

如果我查看保證金結構，是否還有其他槓桿可以提高保證金？

Are we going to be floating around the mid 40%s gross margin and maybe low 20%s on margin?

我們是否會在 40% 左右的毛利率上下浮動，或者利潤率可能在 20% 左右？

Is it purely a function of revenue from here or do have other levers to improve the margins?

它純粹是來自這裡的收入的函數，還是有其他槓桿來提高利潤率？

The thing to understand, Krish, when you're running a company the scale and scope of Lam Research, you've got to be driving cost reduction every day, every year.

需要理解的是，Krish，當你經營一家具有 Lam Research 規模和範圍的公司時，你必須每天、每年都在推動成本降低。

You have to be making sure your efficiencies and things like that in the manufacturing and supply chain are being pushed as hard as they can be pushed.

你必須確保你的效率以及製造和供應鏈中的類似事情被盡可能地推動。

You've got to do it every year.

你必須每年都這樣做。

And we are absolutely doing that this year as hard as we did last year, and we'll do it just as hard next year, because we have expectations from our customers that they're going to get some pricing reduction.

今年我們絕對會像去年一樣努力做到這一點，明年我們也會同樣努力，因為我們的客戶期望他們會得到一些降價。

You've got to at least drive costs as fast as that just to stay in place.

您至少必須盡可能快地降低成本才能保持原狀。

I think the thing I would then take you to, Krish, is go back to the financial models that we just put at the beginning of this month.

Krish，我想我會帶你回到我們剛剛在本月初提出的財務模型。

That's the way you should be thinking about the profitability levels of the Company.

這就是你應該考慮公司盈利水平的方式。

We put in the 2014-2015 model a gross margin at 45%, going over the next three to four years to 46%, and approaching 47%.

我們將 2014-2015 年模型的毛利率設定為 45%，在未來三到四年達到 46%，接近 47%。

That's the way you should be thinking about things.

這就是你應該思考問題的方式。

And there will be puts and takes quarter by quarter around those numbers.

圍繞這些數字，將有一個季度一個季度的看跌期權。

We constructed those models and tried to be very thoughtful about how the portfolio of business was going to look.

我們構建了這些模型，並試圖對業務組合的外觀進行非常周到的考慮。

Just to add to that, if you don't do what Doug says, you don't just float, you drown.

再補充一點，如果你不按照道格所說的去做，你不僅會漂浮，還會淹死。

So, it is critically important to focus on the totality of the things that influence the gross margin and the operating expenses of the Company.

因此，至關重要的是要關注影響公司毛利率和運營費用的全部因素。

We have two levers, simply stated, in gross margin.

簡單地說，我們在毛利率方面有兩個槓桿。

One of them is cost, and one of them is revenue.

其中之一是成本，其中之一是收入。

And the pricing consequence is all a byproduct of the competitive environments and differentiation.

定價後果都是競爭環境和差異化的副產品。

Which is why we make such an investment to position the product and technology portfolio to be as strong as it can be.

這就是為什麼我們進行如此投資以將產品和技術組合定位為盡可能強大。

And it can always be stronger, but as strong as it can be in terms of differentiation.

它總是可以更強大，但在差異化方面盡可能強大。

And the last thing that we think about when we position profitability in our long-term model is what do we think is a fair distribution of profits over the supply chain, and what do we think is a defendable, sustainable position to take with customers.

當我們在長期模型中定位盈利能力時，我們考慮的最後一件事是我們認為在供應鏈中公平分配利潤，以及我們認為與客戶一起採取的可辯護、可持續的立場。

Because as best I can tell, economics still represents a significant component of risk relative to Moore's Law.

因為據我所知，相對於摩爾定律，經濟學仍然是風險的重要組成部分。

It isn't just physics.

這不僅僅是物理學。

And if you get that long-term positioning wrong, you create a customer trust exposure which, in my opinion, is really high.

如果你把長期定位弄錯了，你就會創造一個客戶信任風險，在我看來，這真的很高。

So, we try to position profitability levels in ways that we feel comfortable justifying at the customer interface.

因此，我們嘗試以我們覺得在客戶界面上證明合理的方式來定位盈利水平。

And in that context, we believe, we position for best customer trust and ultimately best partnership, best collaboration.

在這種情況下，我們相信，我們的定位是獲得最佳客戶信任，並最終獲得最佳合作夥伴關係和最佳協作。

And if we execute in the way that we intend to, ultimately outperformance of revenues and profits, as well.

如果我們按照我們打算的方式執行，最終也會超越收入和利潤。

Got it, thank you.

收到了。謝謝。

That's very helpful.

這很有幫助。

Thanks, Martin and Doug.

謝謝，馬丁和道格。

Romit Shah, Nomura.

Romit Shah，野村。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Great job on gross margin.

毛利率方面做得很好。

Doug, I noticed the incremental gross margin in the quarter was extremely high.

道格，我注意到本季度的增量毛利率非常高。

It was roughly 100%.

大約是 100%。

Was there anything one-time worth highlighting here in the June period?

在 6 月期間，有什麼值得一次性強調的嗎？

No, there was nothing one-time.

不，沒有什麼一次性的。

As I tried to describe, you get the impact of different kinds of mix characterizations, different customer mixes, different tool mixes.

正如我試圖描述的那樣，你會得到不同類型的組合特徵、不同的客戶組合、不同的工具組合的影響。

Not everything here has the same profitability.

並非這裡的所有東西都具有相同的盈利能力。

We benefited from pretty favorable mix last quarter.

上個季度我們受益於相當有利的組合。

And it's coming back to where it was in the previous quarter in our current guide.

在我們當前的指南中，它又回到了上一季度的水平。

Okay.

好的。

And then how are you thinking about the share count going forward with the authorization you have in place?

然後，您如何考慮獲得授權後的股票數量？

There's an $850 million buyback authorization.

有 8.5 億美元的回購授權。

We're only just starting on it.

我們才剛剛開始。

We're going to execute that buyback over approximately the next two years.

我們將在未來兩年左右執行回購。

And you should assume we'll consistently be in the market buying that back.

你應該假設我們會一直在市場上買回來。

What's moving against us a little bit right now is the dilution from those convertible notes.

現在對我們不利的是那些可轉換票據的稀釋。

And even though we were in the market last quarter, share count's ticking up and it's really all about what's happening from an increasing share price and the impact on those converts.

即使我們在上個季度進入市場，股票數量也在增加，這實際上都是關於股價上漲所發生的事情以及對這些轉換的影響。

So, we'll continue to be aggressive with the buyback.

因此，我們將繼續積極進行回購。

What I can't control is the note dilution right now.

我現在無法控制的是音符稀釋。

Thanks, Doug.

謝謝，道格。

Mahesh Sanganeria, RBC Capital Markets.

Mahesh Sanganeria，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Just to follow up on the foundry spending in the second half, if you can make an attempt at quantify the broadness of the foundry, putting in two buckets, 28-nanometer and higher and 20-nanometer lower, can you break down your expectation for the second half in those two buckets?

只是跟進下半年的代工支出，如果你可以嘗試量化代工的廣度，放入28納米以上和20納米以下的兩個桶，你能打破你的期望嗎？那兩個桶的後半部分？

More of it is at the leading edge, Mahesh.

更多的是處於領先地位，Mahesh。

The 20-nanometer and the FinFET investment is more substantial than 28, by a decent amount.

20 納米和 FinFET 的投資比 28 大，數量可觀。

Okay, that's very helpful.

好的，這很有幫助。

And the second one, I think on the memory, memory has been very strong this year, and your first half is about 55% on average.

而第二個，我覺得在記憶力上，今年的記憶力一直很強，你上半年平均在55%左右。

We have seen a wild fluctuation in memory investment in the last three years.

在過去三年中，我們看到內存投資大幅波動。

And now with the increased capital intensity, will you be able to make a guess at how do you see a normalized percent spending of memory going forward?

現在隨著資本密集度的增加，您是否能夠猜測您如何看待未來的標準化內存支出百分比？

Like, is it 40% you expect, or 50%, or 30%, in that range?

比如，在這個範圍內，你期望的是 40%，還是 50% 或 30%？

Just a very high ballpark number, that would be helpful.

只是一個非常高的球場數字，這將是有幫助的。

I wish I could help but we're not going to.

我希望我能幫忙，但我們不會。

Frankly, for those folks that want to have conversations about memory or cycles, it's getting really hard to do that because I don't know how to do that anymore.

坦率地說，對於那些想就記憶或週期進行對話的人來說，這樣做真的很難，因為我不知道該怎麼做。

What I can see is a community of 10 customers, or 15, that each have their own cycles, that are spending consistent with their windows of opportunity.

我所看到的是一個由 10 個客戶或 15 個客戶組成的社區，每個客戶都有自己的周期，他們的消費與他們的機會之窗一致。

They're being very disciplined and very effective in terms of upgrading and the pace at which they add capacity, keeping supply and demand in balance.

他們在升級和增加產能的速度、保持供需平衡方面非常自律且非常有效。

When I think about extendability and sustainability of spending, I focus on profitability levels of customers.

當我考慮支出的可擴展性和可持續性時，我關注的是客戶的盈利水平。

And as best I can tell, in memory today that's pretty good.

據我所知，在今天的記憶中，這非常好。

And I focus on the proportion of capacity that is still available for upgrade to known near-term technology road map transitions.

我關注的是仍可用於升級到已知近期技術路線圖轉換的容量比例。

And as I already said, in the DRAM world we exit this year even with a significant level of spending, but probably 450,000 wafer starts per month of capacity at 3X or above.

正如我已經說過的，在 DRAM 世界中，即使支出水平很高，我們也會在今年退出，但每月可能啟動 450,000 片晶圓，產能是 3 倍或以上。

And in the NAND Flash world, we probably exit this year with maybe 500,000 wafer starts per month of capacity at 20-nanometer or above.

而在 NAND 閃存世界中，我們可能會在今年退出 20 納米或以上的產能，每月可能啟動 500,000 片晶圓。

So, there are known upgrade paths of near-term significance.

因此，存在具有近期意義的已知升級路徑。

And those are both opportunities that on their own represent the same type of spending level that exists in calendar 2014.

這兩個機會本身就代表了 2014 年日曆中存在的相同類型的支出水平。

So, that's how I think through sustainability.

所以，這就是我對可持續性的看法。

I don't spend much time trying to correlate the spending of customers this year, which is intended to support revenues next year and beyond, with the revenues of this year.

我沒有花太多時間試圖將今年的客戶支出與今年的收入聯繫起來，這是為了支持明年及以後的收入。

I've never understood that.

我一直不明白。

Okay, that's very helpful.

好的，這很有幫助。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Edwin Mok, Needham & Company.

Edwin Mok，Needham & Company。

Hi, thanks for taking my question.

您好，感謝您提出我的問題。

I have a question regarding your comment I heard that you talk about logic being maybe more back-half weighted this year.

我有一個關於你的評論的問題，我聽說你談到今年的邏輯可能更加偏重。

I was wondering, is that to do with more to do with your share gain in the logic space, or is it the customers start ramping investment?

我想知道，這是否與您在邏輯領域的份額增加有關，還是客戶開始增加投資？

I'm just trying to get some color on that.

我只是想給它一些顏色。

My comment was around our shipments being a little more back-end, back-half loaded.

我的評論是關於我們的貨物更多的是後端，後半部分裝載。

I think WFE -- I'm just eyeballing it here right now -- is maybe a little bit back-half loaded, as well.

我認為 WFE——我現在只是在關注它——也可能有點落後。

It's not significant, Edwin, but it is a little second-half weighted.

埃德溫，這並不重要，但它在下半年有點權重。

And memory, conversely, is a little bit front-half weighted.

相反，內存有點前半部分權重。

So we have an assumption in about a $13 billion foundry WFE, that the first half is $6 billion and the second half is $7 billion.

因此，我們假設大約 130 億美元的代工 WFE，上半年為 60 億美元，下半年為 70 億美元。

Just to clarify, you're talking about logic or foundry or both?

澄清一下，你說的是邏輯還是代工，還是兩者兼而有之？

Because I thought you mentioned logic specifically.

因為我以為你特別提到了邏輯。

That was foundry.

那是鑄造廠。

And in the world of microprocessor and other logic we're, to Doug's point, reasonably balanced.

在道格看來，在微處理器和其他邏輯的世界裡，我們是相當平衡的。

I see.

我懂了。

Okay, great.

好，太棒了。

Thanks for clarifying that.

感謝您澄清這一點。

And then any update you can provide on the new clean product?

然後您可以提供有關新清潔產品的任何更新？

I understand you guys have it in the marketplace now and you probably start getting some customer data on that.

我知道你們現在在市場上有它，你們可能開始獲得一些關於它的客戶數據。

Any update on that, when you expect to actually officially announce the product?

任何更新，當您期望真正正式宣布該產品時？

How do we think about that as the next-year growth driver for you guys?

我們如何看待你們明年的增長動力？

The first update is we still have one.

第一個更新是我們還有一個。

The second update is we've got a really nice engagement with the three customers we talked about.

第二個更新是我們與我們談到的三個客戶進行了非常好的互動。

I think we've been very pleased with the mechanical validation, the productivity, the reliability of those systems.

我認為我們對這些系統的機械驗證、生產力和可靠性感到非常滿意。

So, really good performance.

所以，性能確實不錯。

In fact I would say, we started up -- and the performance we have in startup has surpassed expectations, frankly, for a product of this maturity.

事實上，我想說，我們開始了——坦率地說，我們在創業中的表現已經超過了這種成熟產品的預期。

So, that's really good.

所以，這真的很好。

The process learning is the focus of the Company in the second half of the year.

流程學習是公司下半年的工作重點。

And that's where everything comes together because now you're delivering results from the wafer, and you are creating validated yield improvements for the customer.

這就是一切融合在一起的地方，因為現在您正在交付晶圓的結果，並且您正在為客戶創造經過驗證的良率改進。

So that's a critical phase.

所以這是一個關鍵階段。

And we have pull from two further customers, and I believe we are scheduled for shipments in the September quarter for the second two we will receive the early next-generation clean system.

我們已經從另外兩個客戶那里拉出來了，我相信我們計劃在 9 月季度發貨，第二個季度我們將收到早期的下一代清潔系統。

I feel as good as we could at this point.

在這一點上，我感覺盡可能好。

But I would register that obviously there's a significant amount of process learning ahead of us.

但我會注意到，顯然我們面前有大量的過程學習。

And as far as modeling is concerned, I'll remind you that, although in percentage terms the clean market share growth plans are the largest in the Company -- they're the 5% to 10% clean market share over the timeline through 2016 and 2017 -- they are also the market share growth plans which are most hockey stick.

就建模而言，我會提醒您，儘管按百分比計算，清潔市場份額增長計劃在公司中是最大的——它們是截至 2016 年時間線的 5% 到 10% 的清潔市場份額和 2017 年——它們也是曲棍球棒的市場份額增長計劃。

So, in your modeling please don't linearize the growth of the Company in clean.

因此，在您的建模中，請不要將公司的增長線性化。

Great.

偉大的。

That's all I have.

那是我的全部了。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Patrick Ho, Stifel Nicholas.

帕特里克·何，Stifel Nicholas。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Martin, in one of your comments, I think to another question, you talked about how unpredictable it is to get the timing of pilot to high-volume manufacturing, maybe as it relates to 3D NAND.

馬丁，在你的一個評論中，我認為另一個問題是，你談到了將試點的時間安排到大批量製造的時間是多麼不可預測，可能與 3D NAND 有關。

As you mentioned that you're seeing more planar conversions in the second half of the year, how fungible, how balanced can you be if the customers decide to accelerate 3D NAND versus doing planar conversions?

正如您提到的，您在下半年看到了更多的平面轉換，如果客戶決定加速 3D NAND 而不是進行平面轉換，那麼您的可替代性和平衡性如何？

How do you react to any of those type of changes?

你如何應對這些類型的變化？

As we articulated, we have great participation in both of them, but we have a higher share in 3D NAND than we do planar.

正如我們所闡述的，我們在這兩個方面都有很大的參與，但我們在 3D NAND 中的份額比我們在平面方面的份額更高。

And we have a significantly greater SAM in 3D than we do in planar, as well.

我們在 3D 中的 SAM 也比在平面中的要大得多。

So, the consequence of an acceleration of 3D NAND is we got a lot more output leaving factories, which means we need to be proactive ensuring we've got capacity in factories to build things, got capacity in the supply chain to buy things, and we got capacity in the field service organization to install systems.

所以，加速 3D NAND 的結果是我們有更多的產出離開工廠，這意味著我們需要積極主動地確保我們有能力在工廠製造東西，在供應鏈中有能力購買東西，以及我們有能力在現場服務組織安裝系統。

Because of the uncertainty, we end up running a level of risk management that has some level of cost in the Company.

由於存在不確定性，我們最終會進行一定程度的風險管理，在公司中會產生一定程度的成本。

We try to keep it manageable but there is a cost to uncertainty.

我們試圖使其易於管理，但不確定性是有代價的。

And what we've clearly got to do is be able to execute because we put a lot of time and effort and money into creating the opportunity to outperform, and so we've got to be resourced sufficiently to execute it.

我們顯然要做的是能夠執行，因為我們投入了大量的時間、精力和金錢來創造超越業績的機會，因此我們必須有足夠的資源來執行它。

As best I can tell, every one of the four NAND Flash guys today is invested in some level of planar scaling and also 3D NAND expansion.

據我所知，今天四位 NAND Flash 人員中的每一位都投資於某種程度的平面縮放和 3D NAND 擴展。

And every one of them has some fairly specific plans of substance emerging in the back half of this year and obviously calendar 2015.

他們每個人都有一些相當具體的實質計劃出現在今年下半年，顯然是 2015 年日曆。

And I do expect that calendar 2015 is obviously a big year for demonstrated performance and cost benefits of the 3D device.

我確實預計 2015 年日曆顯然是展示 3D 設備的性能和成本優勢的重要一年。

Great, that's helpful.

太好了，這很有幫助。

Maybe a question for Doug in terms of the services opportunity that you talked about at the Analyst Day.

就您在分析師日談到的服務機會而言，Doug 可能有一個問題。

What are some of the levers for both the cost of goods line as well as on the OpEx line as it relates to the services business that will help you keep the corporate margins at least at your targeted model?

商品成本線和運營支出線的哪些槓桿與服務業務相關，可以幫助您至少將公司利潤率保持在目標模型？

Patrick, we had, you'll remember the slide that I had, I'm sure, that showed outperformance in terms of top-line growth from that services business.

帕特里克，我們有，你會記得我的幻燈片，我敢肯定，它在該服務業務的收入增長方面表現出色。

That success there is comprehended in that model.

那裡的成功體現在該模型中。

And I think typically the gross margin is typically a little bit lower in that business but the operating income is actually quite good.

我認為通常該業務的毛利率通常略低，但營業收入實際上相當不錯。

The success of that part of the business is comprehended in those financial models that we provided.

這部分業務的成功體現在我們提供的那些財務模型中。

I'll add one thing, and that is a commentary on mix.

我要補充一件事，那就是對 mix 的評論。

And this is where the rubber meets the road in terms of the economics of the Company.

這就是橡膠在公司經濟方面遇到的問題。

If our focus is on percentages of profitability, then selling more upgrades to customers is the right answer because the upgrades business of the Company is a very highly profitable business for the Company in relative terms.

如果我們的重點是盈利百分比，那麼向客戶銷售更多升級是正確的答案，因為相對而言，公司的升級業務對公司來說是一項非常高利潤的業務。

But the downside of that is it's a much lower dollar than an original equipment sale.

但不利的一面是，它比原始設備銷售要便宜得多。

We try to focus on the long-term financial performance, which means doing what is right for the customer in the long term, is the guiding principle.

我們嘗試著眼於長期的財務業績，這意味著長期為客戶做正確的事情是指導原則。

We're not going to ebb and flow between new system sales and upgrades on a whim, trying to manage percentages versus dollars.

我們不會一時興起在新系統銷售和升級之間來回起伏，試圖管理百分比與美元。

We're going to do the right thing for the customer relative to this trade-off.

相對於這種權衡，我們將為客戶做正確的事情。

So, that's an important lever but one that responds to the needs of the customers more than it does a particular orientation of the Company.

因此，這是一個重要的槓桿，但它對客戶需求的反應比對公司特定方向的反應更多。

Sundeep Bajikar, Jefferies.

Sundeep Bajikar，傑富瑞。

Hi, guys, thanks for taking my call.

嗨，伙計們，感謝您接聽我的電話。

As we think about a potentially large migration of end customer business from one big foundry to another next year, what level of capacity build do you expect to see over the next 12 to 18 months?

當我們考慮到明年最終客戶業務可能從一家大型鑄造廠遷移到另一家大型鑄造廠時，您預計未來 12 到 18 個月的產能建設水平會是多少？

And what portion of it would be new greenfield capacity versus upgrades to existing capacity particularly in 14-nanometer FinFET?

新的新建產能與現有產能的升級，尤其是 14 納米 FinFET 的升級，其中哪一部分是新產能？

And as a follow-up to that, given the competition in foundry has increased dramatically, do you think there's a chance of an overbuild of foundry capacity near term?

作為後續行動，鑑於代工行業的競爭急劇增加，您認為近期內是否有可能過度建設代工產能？

I'm going to start with the back end of your question first.

我將首先從你問題的後端開始。

I think there's tremendous discipline and I don't think there's a material risk of overcapacity.

我認為有很大的紀律，我不認為存在產能過剩的重大風險。

And my frame of reference for that is that the 28-nanometer technology nodes, there's probably 350,000 wafer starts of installed capacity.

我的參考框架是 28 納米技術節點，可能有 350,000 個晶圓開始的裝機容量。

And even with the competitive environment that you just described, I believe that by the end of this year the sum of the 20-nanometer, planar and first-generation FinFET 16/14-nm is going to be in the range of 120,000 to 140,000 wafer starts capacity.

即使你剛才描述的競爭環境，我相信到今年年底，20 納米、平面和第一代 FinFET 16/14 納米的總和將在 120,000 到 140,000 之間晶圓開始產能。

So, it doesn't feel like it's anywhere close to a high risk profile.

因此，感覺它並不接近高風險。

In answer to your question how much capacity gets added, that's a little hard to tell.

在回答您的問題時，增加了多少容量，這有點難以判斷。

But, frankly speaking, most of the last three years have seen capacity additions in one node or another at foundries of around about the 100,000 wafer starts per month level.

但是，坦率地說，過去三年的大部分時間裡，代工廠的一個節點或另一個節點的產能增加了大約每月 100,000 片晶圓的水平。

And certainly I would expect that to be directionally relevant for calendar 2015, maybe a little stronger.

當然，我希望這與 2015 年日曆具有方向性相關性，可能會更強一些。

And as we mentioned many times, because of the multi- patterning effects for the Company and the positioning in terms of share, we should have some outperformance potential in that context.

正如我們多次提到的，由於公司的多模式效應和份額定位，我們在這種情況下應該有一些超越的潛力。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

That concludes our call for today.

我們今天的呼籲到此結束。

Thank you for joining us.

感謝您加入我們。

A webcast of this call will be available on our Investor Relations website this afternoon.

本次電話會議的網絡直播將於今天下午在我們的投資者關係網站上播放。

That concludes our comments.

我們的評論到此結束。

Goodbye.

再見。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

As a reminder that does conclude today's call and we thank you for your participation.

作為提醒，今天的電話會議結束了，我們感謝您的參與。