科林研發 (LRCX) 2015 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day and welcome to the Lam Research Corporation September 2014 quarterly results conference call.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 Lam Research Corporation 2014 年 9 月季度業績電話會議。

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Carol Raeburn.

在這個時候，我想把會議交給 Carol Raeburn。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to the Lam Research quarterly conference call.

大家下午好，歡迎參加 Lam Research 季度電話會議。

With me today are Martin Anstice, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Doug Bettinger, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

今天和我在一起的是總裁兼首席執行官 Martin Anstice 和執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Doug Bettinger。

During today's call, we will share our outlook on the business environment and review our financial results for the September 2014 quarter and our outlook for the December 2014 quarter.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將分享我們對商業環境的展望，並回顧我們 2014 年 9 月季度的財務業績和 2014 年 12 月季度的展望。

A press release detailing our financial results was distributed a little after 1:00 PM this afternoon.

今天下午 1:00 後發布了一份詳細說明我們財務業績的新聞稿。

It can also be found on the Investor Relations section of the Company's website, along with the presentation slides that accompany today's call.

它也可以在公司網站的投資者關係部分以及今天電話會議隨附的演示幻燈片中找到。

Today's presentation and Q&A will include statements about our expectations and beliefs regarding certain future outcomes, including our guidance.

今天的演示和問答將包括關於我們對某些未來結果的期望和信念的陳述，包括我們的指導。

A more comprehensive list of forward-looking topics that we expect to cover is shown on the slide deck accompanying my remarks.

我們期望涵蓋的更全面的前瞻性主題列表顯示在我的評論隨附的幻燈片上。

All statements made that are not historical in fact are forward-looking statements based on current information and are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially.

所有並非歷史事實的陳述都是基於當前信息的前瞻性陳述，並受到可能導致實際結果產生重大差異的風險和不確定性的影響。

We encourage you to review the risk factor disclosure in our public filings, including our 10-K and our 10-Q.

我們鼓勵您查看我們的公開文件中披露的風險因素，包括我們的 10-K 和 10-Q。

The Company undertakes no obligation to update forward-looking statements.

本公司不承擔更新前瞻性陳述的義務。

Today's discussion of our financial results will be presented on a non-GAAP financial basis, unless otherwise specified.

除非另有說明，今天對我們財務業績的討論將在非公認會計原則財務基礎上進行。

A detailed reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP results can be found in today's earnings press release.

可以在今天的收益新聞稿中找到 GAAP 和非 GAAP 結果之間的詳細核對。

This call is scheduled to last until 3:00 PM Pacific time and, as always, we ask that you limit questions to one per firm with a very brief follow-up, so that we can accommodate as many questions as possible.

本次電話會議計劃持續到太平洋時間下午 3:00，並且與往常一樣，我們要求您將問題限制在每家公司一個，並進行非常簡短的跟進，以便我們能夠容納盡可能多的問題。

As a reminder, a webcast replay of this call will be available later this afternoon on our website.

提醒一下，今天下午晚些時候將在我們的網站上提供此次電話會議的網絡重播。

With that, I'll now hand the call over to Martin.

有了這個，我現在把電話交給馬丁。

Thank you, Carol.

謝謝你，卡羅爾。

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today.

大家下午好，感謝您今天加入我們。

I will start by commenting on our September quarter results, then provide some color on our outlook for wafer fabrication equipment spending in the remainder of calendar 2014 and discuss some trends that we consider relevant to 2015.

我將首先評論我們 9 月的季度業績，然後對我們在 2014 年剩餘時間的晶圓製造設備支出前景進行一些說明，並討論我們認為與 2015 年相關的一些趨勢。

Before transitioning the call to Doug, I will share some updates on Lam's key initiatives that we feel are central to understanding the narrative of outperformance as a major theme for Lam in 2014 and beyond.

在將電話轉給 Doug 之前，我將分享一些關於 Lam 的關鍵舉措的最新情況，我們認為這些舉措對於理解作為 Lam 在 2014 年及以後的主要主題的出色表現的敘述至關重要。

The September quarter marked another period of strong execution for Lam.

9 月季度標誌著林的另一個強有力的執行期。

Executing on our commitments with results in line with the midpoints of our guided ranges across all metrics, continue to the theme of outperformance relative to the semi-conductor equipment industry, with an anticipated greater than 20% year-over-year revenue growth versus an industry baseline of 10% for calendar year 2014.

履行我們的承諾，結果符合我們所有指標的指導範圍的中點，繼續保持相對於半導體設備行業表現優異的主題，預計收入同比增長超過 20%，而2014 日曆年的行業基線為 10%。

Performance for Lam Research is ultimately measured by our ability to deliver value across the full community of stakeholders.

Lam Research 的績效最終取決於我們在整個利益相關者社區中提供價值的能力。

At the customer interface, this value creation is focused on the leading edge, where Lam is helping to solve the most critical, technical and economic challenges related to a set of technology inflections that will define the next several years of our industry, most importantly, multi-patterning, FinFET, 3D NAND and advanced packaging.

在客戶界面，這種價值創造集中在前沿，Lam 正在幫助解決與一系列技術變化相關的最關鍵的技術和經濟挑戰，這些變化將定義我們行業的未來幾年，最重要的是，多模式、FinFET、3D NAND 和先進封裝。

It is also increasingly focused on the lifetime performance improvement opportunities for our customer fabs across many technology nodes.

它也越來越關注我們的客戶晶圓廠在許多技術節點上的生命週期性能改進機會。

That priority is the essence of our focus in our installed base, spares and service business unit.

該優先事項是我們在安裝基礎、備件和服務業務部門中的重點。

As discussed at our investor event in July, the technology inflections through calendar 2017 provide a $2 billion market expansion opportunity for the Company; and a substantial portion of our growth over the medium term is defined by our ability to succeed through these device architecture and process flow transitions.

正如我們在 7 月的投資者活動中所討論的，到 2017 年的技術變化為公司提供了 20 億美元的市場擴張機會；我們在中期增長的很大一部分取決於我們通過這些設備架構和流程轉換取得成功的能力。

We continue to believe that our market share at the technology inflections is approximately 50% across the portfolio of deposition, etch and clean products.

我們仍然相信，在沉積、蝕刻和清潔產品組合中，我們在技術拐點的市場份額約為 50%。

This strong position is particularly important when considering that roughly one-third of WFE spending in calendar 2015 will be focused in these areas at a time when next-generation technology node conversions for memory and logic are just getting underway.

考慮到 2015 年大約三分之一的 WFE 支出將集中在這些領域，而此時內存和邏輯的下一代技術節點轉換剛剛開始，這一強勢地位尤為重要。

Notably, by calendar 2017, we expect half of WFE spending to be in these categories; hence, the conviction we have regarding the opportunity for Lam to deliver a compelling growth story as the targeted market expansion occurs.

值得注意的是，到 2017 年，我們預計 WFE 支出的一半將用於這些類別；因此，我們堅信隨著目標市場擴張的發生，Lam 有機會提供令人信服的增長故事。

Our objective is to realize this outperformance opportunity with a clear strategic vision, disciplined operational performance, and thoughtful scaling of the Company, positioning us to deliver profitable growth in line with the updated financial models shared earlier this year.

我們的目標是通過清晰的戰略願景、嚴格的運營績效和深思熟慮的公司規模來實現這一卓越的業績機會，使我們能夠根據今年早些時候分享的更新財務模型實現盈利增長。

At the same time, we continue to utilize the strong cash flow generated from our growth to reinvest and further strengthen our product and services portfolio, to strengthen our market position and make possible sustained performance around opportunities as they are created.

與此同時，我們繼續利用增長產生的強勁現金流進行再投資，進一步加強我們的產品和服務組合，以鞏固我們的市場地位，並在創造機會時實現可持續的業績。

We remain committed to create value for our shareholders through this investment and also through share repurchases and dividends ongoing.

我們仍然致力於通過這項投資以及持續的股票回購和股息為我們的股東創造價值。

As we enter the final quarter of calendar year 2014, we expect the second half to unfold largely as we had projected, with customer spending relatively balanced between the first half and second half.

隨著我們進入 2014 日曆年的最後一個季度，我們預計下半年將大致如我們預期的那樣展開，客戶支出在上半年和下半年之間相對平衡。

Spending by segment is largely tracking the projections that we shared through the year, with Memory slightly stronger in the first half and the second half having more broad-based Logic participation.

按細分市場劃分的支出主要跟踪我們全年共享的預測，上半年內存略強，下半年有更廣泛的邏輯參與。

The WFE spending environment continues to feature a healthy degree of discipline from customers in what is today a consolidated industry, reflecting what we believe is a continued trend toward reduced cyclicality.

WFE 支出環境繼續體現出客戶在當今整合行業中的健康紀律，這反映了我們認為減少週期性的持續趨勢。

Speaking to segment trends more specifically, starting with NAND Flash.

更具體地談談細分趨勢，從 NAND 閃存開始。

We continue to see a balance in overall supply and demand for bits.

我們繼續看到鑽頭的整體供需平衡。

The majority of investments for NAND have been for planar conversions focused below 20-nanometer.

NAND 的大部分投資都集中在 20 納米以下的平面轉換上。

We expect installed 3D NAND wafer starts capacity to conclude this year at approximately the 60,000 wafer start per month level, and see a focus and broad participation in 3D NAND development and deployment at various stages, in line with customer stated plans.

我們預計，今年安裝的 3D NAND 晶圓開工產能將達到每月約 60,000 片晶圓的開工水平，並根據客戶聲明的計劃，在各個階段重點關注並廣泛參與 3D NAND 開發和部署。

Our outlook for 2014 NAND supply bit growth remains in the 40% range.

我們對 2014 年 NAND 供應位增長的展望仍保持在 40% 的範圍內。

In DRAM, we see continued strength in investment plans from our customers, with strong market demand driven largely by mobile and enterprise DRAM growth.

在 DRAM 方面，我們看到客戶的投資計劃持續強勁，強勁的市場需求主要受移動和企業 DRAM 增長的推動。

Pricing remains stable.

定價保持穩定。

Investments in DRAM are primarily being made to enable the transition to the mid-2X nanometer and below nodes.

對 DRAM 的投資主要是為了實現向中 2X 納米及以下節點的過渡。

These investments continue to be, from our perspective, very efficient, with a focus on upgrades and maximizing installed footprint capability.

從我們的角度來看，這些投資仍然非常有效，重點是升級和最大限度地提高安裝空間的能力。

Projections are for DRAM bit growth of approximately 30% this year.

預計今年 DRAM 位將增長約 30%。

Overall in Memory, we maintain our projection for 2014 WFE at $12 billion to $13 billion.

總體而言，在內存方面，我們將 2014 年 WFE 的預測維持在 120 億至 130 億美元。

The Foundry and broader Logic segments have also more or less progressed in line with our expectations.

Foundry 和更廣泛的邏輯部門也或多或少地符合我們的預期。

The first half of the year was focused on 20-nanometer Foundry investments.

今年上半年的重點是 20 納米 Foundry 投資。

The second half of the year is more weighted to early FinFET purchases, with a broadening of participants and some planar technology investments by a number of customers at the 28-nanometer technology node.

下半年更側重於早期的 FinFET 採購，參與者擴大，一些客戶在 28 納米技術節點進行了一些平面技術投資。

In summary, we see the industry largely in line with expectations and maintain our outlook for calendar 2014 at $32 billion, plus or minus $1 billion.

總而言之，我們認為該行業基本符合預期，並將我們對 2014 日曆年的展望維持在 320 億美元，上下浮動 10 億美元。

As we look forward to 2015, our bias remains in favor of a growth year.

當我們展望 2015 年時，我們仍然傾向於增長的一年。

While there are many factors supporting this, such as publicly stated customer investment plans and net positive macroeconomic indicators related to consumer electronic adoption trends and global GDP, it is always fair to say that much can change.

儘管有許多因素支持這一點，例如公開聲明的客戶投資計劃和與消費電子採用趨勢和全球 GDP 相關的淨正面宏觀經濟指標，但可以公平地說，很多事情都可能發生變化。

While we plan to provide more detail on the anticipated 2015 WFE spending level and composition in January, we can say today that from industry analysis, customer and peer commentary to date, that WFE growth rates in the 5% to 10% range would be a reasonable starting assumption.

雖然我們計劃在 1 月份提供有關 2015 年 WFE 預期支出水平和構成的更多詳細信息，但我們今天可以說，從迄今為止的行業分析、客戶和同行評論來看，5% 至 10% 範圍內的 WFE 增長率將是合理的起始假設。

As always, the opportunity here is defined by the success of latest generation devices utilizing leading-edge technology in the marketplace; and also, the ability of the ecosystem to supply these devices in a timeframe and at a price point that the market will sustain.

與往常一樣，這裡的機會取決於利用市場領先技術的最新一代設備的成功；此外，生態系統在市場能夠維持的時間範圍內以價格點供應這些設備的能力。

We consider that our opportunity in calendar 2015 is greater than this WFE baseline, due to Etch and Deposition markets growing faster than the average of other segments, combined with the relative strength of our product portfolio and sentiments of customer support, for which we are sincerely grateful.

我們認為我們在 2015 年日曆中的機會大於此 WFE 基線，因為蝕刻和沈積市場的增長速度快於其他細分市場的平均水平，再加上我們產品組合的相對實力和客戶支持的情緒，我們真誠地對此感激的。

As mentioned at the start of my prepared remarks today, we would like to take this opportunity to provide you with an update on some of the Company's strategic initiatives that have supported our growth this year and will, in our opinion, continue to drive our future.

正如我今天準備的發言開始時所提到的，我們想藉此機會向您介紹公司的一些戰略舉措的最新情況，這些舉措支持了我們今年的增長，我們認為，這些舉措將繼續推動我們的未來.

The focus on solving customers' toughest problems puts a premium on commitments to significant investment in leading-edge solutions and to our customer trust and collaboration model.

專注於解決客戶最棘手的問題，重視對領先解決方案的重大投資以及我們的客戶信任和協作模式的承諾。

I mentioned earlier that our execution levels, so far, have translated into what we estimate is a market share of approximately 50% of the inflections spanning multi-patenting, FinFET, 3D NAND and advanced packaging for Lam Research.

我之前提到，到目前為止，我們的執行水平已經轉化為我們估計的市場份額，約佔 Lam Research 的多專利、FinFET、3D NAND 和先進封裝的市場份額。

With respect to overall market share, we shared with you at our Semicon West Investor Day this year that we were performing at roughly 90% success rate for our targeted penetrations in defenses in the first half of the year and that there were many more decisions outstanding through the end of the year.

關於整體市場份額，我們在今年的 Semicon West 投資者日上與您分享，我們在今年上半年的目標滲透防禦方面的成功率約為 90%，並且還有更多未決的決定到年底。

I'm very pleased to report that through a busy September quarter, we've executed well and remain at that same magnitude of customer decisions in our favor.

我很高興地報告，在繁忙的 9 月季度中，我們執行得很好，並且保持在對我們有利的相同程度的客戶決策上。

For this reason, we maintain our conviction about the opportunity to realize our targeted market share gains short- and long-term.

出於這個原因，我們對實現短期和長期目標市場份額增長的機會保持信念。

From our standpoint, the commitment to investment in leading-edge innovation will reinforce trust, leadership, and cycles of differentiated learning for the Company.

從我們的角度來看，對領先創新投資的承諾將加強公司的信任、領導力和差異化學習週期。

We focus on technology leadership and productivity, which it seems capability and costs are equally important to our customers.

我們專注於技術領先和生產力，而能力和成本似乎對我們的客戶同樣重要。

One measure of our success is the milestones we are able to achieve, and we've had several of them recently.

我們成功的衡量標準之一是我們能夠實現的里程碑，我們最近已經有了幾個。

The shipment of our 4,000th Deposition system from our Oregon facility, the shipment of our 2,000th Vector PECVD module, and our 100th 2300 Syndion chamber shipment for deep silicon etch, which we announced earlier this week.

我們的第 4,000 個沉積系統從我們的俄勒岡工廠發貨，第 2,000 個 Vector PECVD 模塊的發貨，以及我們本週早些時候宣布的第 100 個用於深矽蝕刻的 2300 Syndion 腔室發貨。

The Syndion product allows for the very high aspect ratio silicon etches central to the production of image sensors, interposers and through silicon vias, a market inflection just emerging.

Syndion 產品允許非常高的縱橫比矽蝕刻，這對於圖像傳感器、中介層和矽通孔的生產至關重要，這是一個剛剛出現的市場拐點。

We also expect to hit another milestone by the end of this year with the shipment of our 250th Flex FX product for memory, high aspect ratio applications.

我們還預計，到今年年底，我們的第 250 個 Flex FX 產品的出貨量將達到另一個里程碑，用於內存、高縱橫比應用。

Our Flex systems showcase why we continue to build our market share in etch, delivering innovation and achievement with our proprietary pulsing technology and best-in-class uniformity tuning, contributing capability to sustain our delivery of differentiated results on the wafer.

我們的 Flex 系統展示了為什麼我們繼續在蝕刻領域建立我們的市場份額，通過我們專有的脈衝技術和一流的均勻性調整提供創新和成就，有助於維持我們在晶圓上提供差異化結果的能力。

We are continuing to deliver the next generation of solutions that define the leading edge, such as atomic layer Deposition capability for applications such as spacer based patterning schemes and atomic layer etch for high aspect ratio etch process steps.

我們將繼續提供定義領先優勢的下一代解決方案，例如用於基於間隔的圖案化方案和用於高縱橫比蝕刻工藝步驟的原子層蝕刻等應用的原子層沉積能力。

These technologies have long suffered from under-adoption in the industry because of productivity concerns, but Lam is now changing that paradigm with frequency of new product releases and engagements with customers that are designed to enable continued scaling for our customers.

長期以來，由於生產力問題，這些技術在行業中一直未得到充分採用，但 Lam 現在正在改變這種範式，新產品發布的頻率和與客戶的接觸旨在為我們的客戶實現持續擴展。

As we move into calendar 2015, we will further emphasize by our actions the priority of staying close to our customer at a strategic and tactical level both, partnering with them on their technology introduction and ramp plans, sizing and allocating our R&D investments accordingly.

隨著我們進入 2015 年日曆，我們將通過我們的行動進一步強調在戰略和戰術層面上與客戶保持密切聯繫的優先事項，與他們在技術引進和升級計劃上合作，相應地調整和分配我們的研發投資。

We remain highly focused on delivering sustainable growth today, efficiently scaling our business, maintaining a strong cash generation profile and managing our balance sheet to enable execution on broader strategic goals.

今天，我們仍然高度專注於實現可持續增長，有效地擴展我們的業務，保持強勁的現金生成狀況並管理我們的資產負債表，以實現更廣泛的戰略目標的執行。

All of these efforts, as well as our capital return programs, are designed to enhance value creation for all stakeholders.

所有這些努力以及我們的資本回報計劃旨在為所有利益相關者增加價值創造。

With the focus of the Company as outlined, we think it is hard to find a better positioned semiconductor capital equipment company to capitalize on emerging industry trends.

鑑於公司的重點如上所述，我們認為很難找到一家定位更好的半導體資本設備公司來利用新興行業趨勢。

That is a byproduct of many years of hard work, continuity of leadership, strength of culture and values, clear strategic vision, and solid execution.

這是多年辛勤工作、領導力的連續性、文化和價值觀的力量、清晰的戰略願景和紮實的執行力的副產品。

We truly have one integrated and very capable team at Lam, which is inspired to achieve more than ever and contribute to the success of our customers long term.

我們在 Lam 確實擁有一支綜合且非常有能力的團隊，他們受到鼓舞，比以往任何時候都取得更大的成就，並為我們客戶的長期成功做出貢獻。

Let me conclude by thanking them all, the dedicated employees of Lam Research, without whom our performance would not be possible to achieve or sustain.

最後，我要感謝他們所有人，Lam Research 的敬業員工，沒有他們，我們的業績將無法實現或維持。

With that, I will hand the call over to Doug.

有了這個，我會把電話交給道格。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Martin.

謝謝你，馬丁。

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today.

大家下午好，感謝您今天加入我們。

Before I share the results from our September quarter, I'd like to pause for a moment to recognize and thank Carol Raeburn, who has done an excellent job temporarily heading our Investor Relations team, in addition to her role as Corporate Controller.

在分享我們 9 月季度的結果之前，我想暫停片刻以表彰和感謝 Carol Raeburn，除了擔任公司財務總監之外，她在暫時領導我們的投資者關係團隊方面做得非常出色。

Carol will be handing over responsibility for the team to Audrey Charles, who is stepping in as Senior Director of Investor Relations.

Carol 將把團隊的責任移交給 Audrey Charles，後者將擔任投資者關係高級總監。

Audrey's been with Lam for over 18 years and brings to the role a broad base of experience in both customer as well as technology management.

Audrey 已在 Lam 工作超過 18 年，為該職位帶來了客戶和技術管理方面的廣泛經驗。

I'm pleased that she will now be applying her talent and leadership to our Investor Relations team.

我很高興她現在將把她的才能和領導力運用到我們的投資者關係團隊中。

I think you guys will enjoy getting to know Audrey.

我想你們會喜歡結識奧黛麗的。

Now, on to our September quarter performance.

現在，談談我們 9 月份的季度業績。

We posted another solid quarter, delivering results at or above the midpoint of guidance for all financial metrics and extending our positive momentum heading into the second half of the calendar year.

我們發布了另一個穩健的季度，所有財務指標的業績均達到或高於指導中點，並將我們的積極勢頭延續到日曆年下半年。

In the September quarter, shipments came in at $1.111 billion, pretty much right at the midpoint of our guidance range.

在 9 月季度，出貨量為 11.11 億美元，幾乎處於我們指導範圍的中點。

Relative to system shipments, systems for the foundry segment increased substantially in the September quarter, accounting for 45% of system shipments.

相對於系統出貨量，代工部門的系統在 9 月季度大幅增長，佔系統出貨量的 45%。

And that compares to 30% in the prior quarter.

相比之下，上一季度為 30%。

As we anticipated, there was a broadening out of customer spending in the Foundry space for a wide range of projects across multiple technology nodes.

正如我們預期的那樣，Foundry 領域的客戶支出正在擴大，用於跨多個技術節點的廣泛項目。

And I'd just point out that this percentage of foundry shipments is the highest percentage for us since the March 2013 quarter.

我只想指出，這個代工出貨百分比是我們自 2013 年 3 月季度以來的最高百分比。

The combined Memory segment made up 44% of system shipments, and this was down from 59% in the prior quarter.

合併後的內存部分佔系統出貨量的 44%，低於上一季度的 59%。

NAND shipments actually grew and represented 26% of the system shipments, which was up from 20% in the June quarter.

NAND 出貨量實際增長，佔系統出貨量的 26%，高於 6 月季度的 20%。

NAND spending reflected a continued focus on planar node technology conversions.

NAND 支出反映了對平面節點技術轉換的持續關注。

DRAM shipments were down, as we expected, after the very strong levels we saw in the June quarter.

正如我們預期的那樣，在我們在 6 月季度看到的非常強勁的水平之後，DRAM 出貨量下降了。

DRAM shipments came in at 18% of system shipments and this was down from 39% in June.

DRAM 出貨量佔系統出貨量的 18%，低於 6 月份的 39%。

And finally, Logic shipments held steady at 11% of system shipments.

最後，Logic 出貨量穩定在系統出貨量的 11%。

September quarter revenue came in at $1.152 billion and has been now running at a level above $1 billion for five consecutive quarters.

9 月季度收入為 11.52 億美元，目前已連續五個季度保持在 10 億美元以上的水平。

Gross margin for the period came in at 45.8%, which was a little bit above the midpoint of our guidance and a little bit ahead of our near-term financial model.

該期間的毛利率為 45.8%，略高於我們指導的中點，略高於我們的近期財務模型。

Our gross margin performance is determined by many factors that I've told you before, such as business volumes, product mix and customer mix.

我們的毛利率表現取決於我之前告訴過您的許多因素，例如業務量、產品組合和客戶組合。

You should expect to see variability quarter to quarter, particularly in quarters with high or low customer concentration.

您應該期望看到每個季度的變化，特別是在客戶集中度高或低的季度。

Operating expenses were flattish, at $321 million.

運營費用持平，為 3.21 億美元。

SG&A declined sequentially, while R&D spending increased both in absolute dollars, as well as a percentage of total operating expenses.

SG&A 環比下降，而研發支出的絕對金額以及佔總運營支出的百分比均有所增加。

We continue to invest in R&D programs to ensure we are ready for the current as well as next set of technology and inflections, which is critical to enable our revenue growth.

我們將繼續投資於研發計劃，以確保我們為當前和下一組技術和變化做好準備，這對於實現我們的收入增長至關重要。

This R&D spending is focused in areas like ALD and ALE, which Martin referenced earlier.

這項研發支出主要集中在 Martin 之前提到的 ALD 和 ALE 等領域。

Operating income in the September quarter was $207 million, with operating margin of 18%, which again was a little above the midpoint of our guidance.

9 月季度的營業收入為 2.07 億美元，營業利潤率為 18%，再次略高於我們指導的中點。

The tax rate for the quarter came in at 18%, which was up sequentially due to the geographic distribution of revenue for the quarter, with more revenue being generated in the United States.

本季度的稅率為 18%，由於本季度收入的地理分佈，該季度的稅率環比上升，美國產生了更多的收入。

For the December quarter, I would be modeling a rate in the middle teens.

對於 12 月季度，我將模擬一個中間青少年的比率。

And for the remainder of the fiscal year, I would be modeling a tax rate in the high teens.

在本財政年度的剩餘時間裡，我將模擬高青少年的稅率。

And I'll just remind you, if the Federal R&D tax credit were to be extended, the impact would be a reduction of a couple of percentage points on the tax rate relative to the numbers that I just referenced.

我只是提醒你，如果要擴大聯邦研發稅收抵免，其影響將是相對於我剛才提到的數字降低幾個百分點的稅率。

Based on a non-GAAP share count of approximately 175 million shares, earnings per share for the September quarter were $0.96, which again was above the midpoint of our guided range.

根據大約 1.75 億股的非公認會計原則股票數量，9 月季度的每股收益為 0.96 美元，再次高於我們指導範圍的中點。

Recall that with the increase in the share price, the share count now includes dilution from all three of our convertible notes, offset by the impact of the note hedge that we put in place.

回想一下，隨著股價的上漲，股票數量現在包括我們所有三張可轉換票據的稀釋，被我們實施的票據對沖的影響所抵消。

The net dilutive impact from all three notes on a non-GAAP basis is approximately 10 million shares.

在非公認會計原則基礎上，所有三種票據的淨稀釋影響約為 1000 萬股。

And I'll remind you, dilution schedules for the 2016, 2018 and 2041 convertible notes are available on our Investor Relations website to help you with your modeling.

我會提醒您，我們的投資者關係網站上提供了 2016 年、2018 年和 2041 年可轉換票據的稀釋時間表，以幫助您進行建模。

We made good progress on our $1 billion capital return program.

我們在 10 億美元的資本回報計劃方面取得了良好進展。

During the quarter, we spent approximately $300 million and took delivery of approximately 4 million shares at an average purchase price of $72.40.

在本季度，我們花費了大約 3 億美元，並以 72.40 美元的平均購買價格接收了大約 400 萬股股票。

We executed these buybacks partially through open market purchases and partially through an accelerated share repurchase program, which will not close until the December quarter.

我們部分通過公開市場購買執行這些回購，部分通過加速股票回購計劃執行，該計劃要到 12 月季度才會結束。

On July 2, we paid our $0.18 per share dividend, which consumed $29 million.

7 月 2 日，我們支付了每股 0.18 美元的股息，消耗了 2900 萬美元。

We are pleased with the cash generation capability of the Company and continue to be committed to returning a meaningful level of that cash to shareholders.

我們對公司的現金產生能力感到滿意，並繼續致力於將有意義的現金返還給股東。

Let me now move to the balance sheet.

現在讓我談談資產負債表。

We ended the quarter with cash and short-term investments, including restricted cash, of about $3 billion.

本季度末，我們的現金和短期投資（包括受限現金）約為 30 億美元。

This is down from $3.2 billion in the June quarter, with cash generation in the quarter being more than offset by our ongoing share repurchase and dividend programs.

這低於 6 月季度的 32 億美元，本季度的現金產生被我們正在進行的股票回購和股息計劃所抵消。

Deferred revenues were $357 million, and this excludes $34 million in shipments to customers in Japan which will revenue in future quarters.

遞延收入為 3.57 億美元，其中不包括未來幾個季度將向日本客戶發貨的 3400 萬美元。

These Japanese shipments remain as inventory on our balance sheet.

這些日本貨物仍作為我們資產負債表上的庫存。

Cash from operations was $141 million, down from $246 million in the June quarter.

運營現金為 1.41 億美元，低於 6 月季度的 2.46 億美元。

Cash from operations was lower, primarily due to the lower revenue.

營運現金減少，主要是由於收入減少。

Additionally, we built some inventory in preparation for an increase in shipment output over the next couple of quarters.

此外，我們建立了一些庫存，為未來幾個季度出貨量的增加做準備。

DSO also trended higher by 10 days, due to the shipment profile within the September quarter.

由於 9 月季度的出貨情況，DSO 也上漲了 10 天。

And finally, we exited the quarter with approximately 6,600 full-time employees.

最後，我們在本季度結束時擁有大約 6,600 名全職員工。

Let me now turn to our non-GAAP guidance for the December quarter.

現在讓我談談我們對 12 月季度的非 GAAP 指導。

We expect shipments of $1.240 billion, plus or minus $50 million.

我們預計出貨量為 12.4 億美元，上下浮動 5000 萬美元。

We expect revenue of $1.230 billion, plus or minus $50 million.

我們預計收入為 12.3 億美元，上下浮動 5000 萬美元。

We're forecasting gross margin of 45.5%, plus or minus one percentage point.

我們預測毛利率為 45.5%，上下浮動 1 個百分點。

We forecast operating margins of 19%, plus or minus one percentage point.

我們預測營業利潤率為 19%，上下浮動 1 個百分點。

And finally, we forecast earnings per share of $1.12, plus or minus $0.07, based on a share count of approximately 173 million shares.

最後，基於大約 1.73 億股的股票數量，我們預測每股收益為 1.12 美元，上下浮動 0.07 美元。

So let me just summarize.

所以讓我簡單總結一下。

We're pleased with our performance, delivering another quarter of solid operational execution.

我們對我們的表現感到滿意，又提供了四分之一的穩健運營執行。

We had results aligned to our objectives and are tracking to our targets as outlined in the financial model.

我們的結果與我們的目標一致，並正在跟踪我們在財務模型中概述的目標。

With that, I will conclude our prepared remarks.

至此，我將結束我們準備好的發言。

Operator, please open up the call for Martin and I to take questions.

接線員，請打開電話讓我和馬丁回答問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Krish Sankar, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

美銀美林的 Krish Sankar。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

I had two of them.

我有兩個。

Number one, Martin, when you look into 2015, it looks like you're pretty optimistic on FinFET and DRAM.

第一，馬丁，當你展望 2015 年時，看起來你對 FinFET 和 DRAM 相當樂觀。

I'm just kind of curious.

我只是有點好奇。

It looks like this year, most of the NAND spending was on planar.

看起來今年，大部分 NAND 支出都在平面上。

Do you expect a similar trend in 2015, or do you think 3D NAND will increase as a percentage of the mix?

您是否預計 2015 年會出現類似趨勢，或者您認為 3D NAND 的比例會增加嗎？

And I also had a follow-up.

我也進行了跟進。

I think that next year we'll continue to see planar investment levels being greater than 3D.

我認為明年我們將繼續看到平面投資水平高於 3D。

Obviously, there's a decent amount of installed base available.

顯然，有相當數量的可用安裝基礎。

And I think, without exception today, every customer is committed to scaling and committed to a 3D NAND transition.

而且我認為，今天無一例外，每個客戶都致力於擴展並致力於 3D NAND 過渡。

And as you know, there's various timing available from the customer.

如您所知，客戶可以提供各種時間。

My expectation is that NAND Flash investment continues to be very disciplined.

我的預期是 NAND 閃存投資將繼續非常嚴格。

In fact, I would say it's probably the tightest of any of the segments, in terms of the balance of supply and demand, next year.

事實上，我想說，就明年的供需平衡而言，這可能是所有細分市場中最緊張的。

And I think we'll see a meaningful addition of capacity in 3D NAND, but we would still expect planar spending to be higher than 3D.

而且我認為我們將看到 3D NAND 的容量顯著增加，但我們仍預計平面支出將高於 3D。

Got it.

知道了。

That's very helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then as a follow-up, I'm kind of curious on the status of your single wafer clean product for the front end of line.

然後作為後續行動，我有點好奇你們在生產線前端的單晶圓清潔產品的狀態。

Have you seen any traction?

你有沒有看到任何牽引力？

Or is it a product or is it a strategy you're going to pursue, you're going to focus on BEOL at this time.

或者它是一種產品，或者它是你要追求的戰略，你此時將專注於 BEOL。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

The front end of the line is the largest market expansion opportunity.

生產線前端是最大的市場拓展機會。

The Company is very competitive in back-end-of-line.

公司在後端的競爭非常激烈。

We have great position.

我們有很好的地位。

And through the last several technology nodes, we've been very successful at defending those positions.

通過最近的幾個技術節點，我們在捍衛這些位置方面非常成功。

So the investment levels in clean and the growth opportunity in clean for sure have some back-end-of-line growth opportunities.

因此，清潔領域的投資水平和清潔領域的增長機會肯定有一些後端增長機會。

But in large part, this is a front-end-of-line expansion opportunity.

但在很大程度上，這是一個前端擴展的機會。

And we continue to be very engaged with customers.

我們繼續與客戶保持密切聯繫。

Since the last earnings call, we have at least one more engagement, to my knowledge.

據我所知，自上次財報電話會議以來，我們至少還有一次參與。

And I would still say that the initial revenues for the new product, although there is some evidence of that today in a material context, that's really still a 2015 event for the Company.

而且我仍然會說新產品的初始收入，儘管今天在物質背景下有一些證據表明，這對於公司來說仍然是 2015 年的事件。

And there are two parts to the decision-making process relative to a new product.

與新產品相關的決策過程有兩個部分。

One of them is the decisions of the Company to stay committed to investment.

其中之一是公司決定繼續致力於投資。

And we've clearly performed and executed with that in mind in calendar 2014.

我們在 2014 年日曆中清楚地執行和執行了這一點。

And then ultimately, a set of decisions by customers to adopt the technology.

然後最終，客戶決定採用該技術。

And we're kind of in that critical phase where, in many respects, the decision-making about the health and the direction of our clean business is more in the hands of the customer than the Company.

我們正處於關鍵階段，在許多方面，關於健康和清潔業務方向的決策更多地掌握在客戶手中，而不是公司手中。

I think we've done what we should have done.

我認為我們已經做了我們應該做的。

We delivered a productive platform.

我們提供了一個高效的平台。

We have a clear strategy around differentiated solutions offerings.

我們圍繞差異化解決方案產品製定了明確的戰略。

And it will either demonstrate differentiation of value for the customer and cause them to adopt our product or not.

它要么向客戶展示價值差異化，要么讓他們採用我們的產品。

And I think the next 6 to 12 months is critical for the Company, in that regard.

在這方面，我認為未來 6 到 12 個月對公司至關重要。

That's very helpful.

這很有幫助。

Thanks, Martin.

謝謝，馬丁。

CJ Muse, ISI Group.

CJ Muse，ISI 集團。

First question, when you look back -- I guess we're still in 2014.

第一個問題，當你回頭看時——我想我們還在 2014 年。

But when you think about outpacing the market, basically growing 2 times, how do you think about the key drivers there?

但是，當您考慮超越市場，基本上增長 2 倍時，您如何看待那裡的關鍵驅動因素？

Is there a way to rank order by end market, or by FinFET or SADP for DRAM, in terms of what really drove that outperformance?

有沒有辦法按終端市場或 DRAM 的 FinFET 或 SADP 對訂單進行排序，就真正推動這種優異表現而言？

And then as you think of 2015 and your outlook for WFE, what will be the key drivers there?

然後當你想到 2015 年和你對 WFE 的展望時，那裡的關鍵驅動因素是什麼？

Well, really nothing new from the Company on this point, really, CJ.

好吧，在這一點上，公司真的沒有什麼新鮮事，真的，CJ。

The outperformance of the Company is now kind of a two-year work product.

公司的出色表現現在是一種兩年的工作成果。

We've had revenue performance greater than WFE for 2 years in succession.

我們的收入表現連續 2 年高於 WFE。

And I believe we're going to enjoy the same performance benefits in calendar 2015, and hopefully beyond.

我相信我們將在 2015 年享受同樣的性能優勢，並希望在以後。

We've got a lot of execution, obviously.

顯然，我們有很多執行力。

But certainly, the set up is very healthy in that regard.

但可以肯定的是，在這方面的設置是非常健康的。

And the growth opportunity is defined principally by SAM expansion, by the markets of Deposition and Etch growing faster than the average, and the multiple patterning opportunity in DRAM and Logic both, the 3D NAND transition, and ultimately, advanced packaging are the critical areas of segmentation that present that.

增長機會主要由 SAM 擴展、沉積和蝕刻市場增長速度高於平均水平、DRAM 和邏輯中的多重圖案化機會、3D NAND 過渡以及最終的先進封裝是關鍵領域來定義。呈現那個的分割。

And we're working really hard to compound that opportunity by actually executing market share growth in each of our businesses, as well, in the long-term.

我們正在努力通過實際執行我們每項業務的市場份額增長來增加這一機會，以及長期。

And the short-term performance, from my perspective, makes the long-term objectives rational and credible.

在我看來，短期表現使長期目標變得合理和可信。

So the largest opportunity in the inflections continues to be multi-patterning; second largest, 3D NAND.

因此，拐點中最大的機會仍然是多模式；第二大，3D NAND。

And both of those are heavy Etch and Deposition intensive process flows and device architectures.

這兩者都是重蝕刻和沈積密集型工藝流程和設備架構。

So I think the future is built upon the same outperformance elements as our recent history.

因此，我認為未來建立在與我們近期歷史相同的卓越表現元素之上。

And as I said in my prepared comments, the success of the Company in terms of market share and positioning products and services, which has demonstrated outperformance in the last couple of years, is building momentum as the proportion of WFE spending biases the inflections.

正如我在準備好的評論中所說，公司在市場份額和定位產品和服務方面的成功，在過去幾年中表現出眾，正在形成勢頭，因為 WFE 支出的比例偏向拐點。

So this year, I think the inflections see about 25% of WFE.

所以今年，我認為拐點約佔 WFE 的 25%。

Next year, we're at approximately one third.

明年，我們大約是三分之一。

And by 2017, probably 50% of WFE spending will be directly related to the inflections that are providing the outperformance potential on SAM expansion and market share for the Company.

到 2017 年，可能 50% 的 WFE 支出將直接與為公司在 SAM 擴張和市場份額方面提供出色表現潛力的拐點相關。

That's very helpful.

這很有幫助。

As my second question, you basically saw pretty similar trends first half versus second half.

作為我的第二個問題，您基本上看到上半年與下半年的趨勢非常相似。

How do you think about 2015 and linearity of spend there, particularly on the Foundry side, given some of the commentary that it's going to be first-half weighted?

你如何看待 2015 年以及那裡的支出線性，特別是在 Foundry 方面，考慮到一些評論稱它將是上半年加權？

The only conviction I have is there will be a first half and second half.

我唯一的信念是會有上半場和下半場。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

It's really hard to answer a question like that.

這樣的問題真的很難回答。

We've got a pretty wide range on our WFE number.

我們的 WFE 編號範圍很廣。

It feels really too early to answer that question.

現在回答這個問題感覺還為時過早。

I do think, consistent with Doug's comments on our inventory build, which you see in our balance sheet in September, we do expect a strong first half of next year, and quite how strong it will be is still to be determined.

我確實認為，與 Doug 對我們庫存增加的評論一致，您在 9 月份的資產負債表中可以看到，我們確實預計明年上半年會表現強勁，但具體表現如何仍有待確定。

But for sure, the visibility through the March quarter would imply that will be the case today.

但可以肯定的是，通過 3 月季度的可見性意味著今天將是這種情況。

And it is really difficult when you're 9 months away and 12 months away to start opining with any substance on the second half.

當你在 9 個月和 12 個月之後開始對下半年的任何內容髮表意見時，真的很難。

I'll take a shot at answering that question, if I may, in January.

如果可以的話，我會在 1 月份嘗試回答這個問題。

Sounds good.

聽起來不錯。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

Sundeep Bajikar, Jefferies.

Sundeep Bajikar，傑富瑞。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

The first one is related to Foundry.

第一個與Foundry有關。

How much 14-nanometer capacity, roughly, do you think we should expect to see in the industry exiting 2015?

您認為我們應該在 2015 年退出的行業中看到多少 14 納米產能？

And when do you think we start to see more optimized versions of multi-patterning in Foundry?

您認為我們什麼時候開始在 Foundry 中看到更優化的多模式版本？

Basically something like spacer-based patterning or Intel's approach, both of which would be more Deposition and Etch intensive.

基本上類似於基於間隔的圖案或英特爾的方法，這兩種方法都將更加沉積和蝕刻密集。

I think to the latter part of the question, the spacer based approach is definitely a trend which is accelerating.

我認為對於問題的後半部分，基於間隔的方法絕對是一種正在加速的趨勢。

I'm not going to directly answer your question in terms of capacity at the 14-nanometer node, because, frankly, we don't spend a huge amount of time getting precise to one node.

關於 14 納米節點的容量，我不會直接回答您的問題，因為坦率地說，我們不會花費大量時間來精確到一個節點。

We're grouping 20 and 16 and 14 together.

我們將 20 和 16 和 14 組合在一起。

Because to a very large extent, the equipment selection to the customer is irrelevant for all three nodes or half nodes, if you want to characterize it that way.

因為在很大程度上，客戶的設備選擇對於所有三個節點或半個節點都無關緊要，如果你想這樣描述它。

But we would expect that, according to the assumptions I've given you, this up 5% to 10% WFE number, we would expect that calendar 2015 ends with about 210,000, 220,000, maybe 230,000 wafer starts per month of capacity at 14, 16, 20.

但我們預計，根據我給你的假設，這個上升 5% 到 10% 的 WFE 數字，我們預計 2015 年日曆結束時，每個月的產能約為 210,000、220,000、也許 230,000 片，為 14， 16、20。

Great.

偉大的。

That's extremely helpful.

這非常有幫助。

A quick follow-up.

快速跟進。

There seems to be a lot of talk around strategic capacity expansion and semi-conductor manufacturing in China.

似乎有很多關於中國戰略產能擴張和半導體製造的討論。

Are you starting to see this in terms of discussions around equipment purchases?

您是否開始在圍繞設備採購的討論中看到這一點？

Or do you think we're still in very early stages of planning a potential build in China?

還是您認為我們仍處於計劃在中國建造潛在建築的早期階段？

I think there's actually a meaningful investment, and there are a number of expansion plans in China.

我認為這實際上是一項有意義的投資，並且在中國有許多擴張計劃。

And clearly, in light of the government and region-specific agenda, I think everybody is developing and finessing their China strategies.

顯然，鑑於政府和地區的具體議程，我認為每個人都在製定和完善他們的中國戰略。

And I would certainly say that's relevant for Lam Research, as well.

我當然會說這也與 Lam Research 相關。

We have a very strong team.

我們有一個非常強大的團隊。

We have very close engagement with customers.

我們與客戶有非常密切的接觸。

And I think we are participating well in the spending, as it is going to play out in the next year or so.

我認為我們很好地參與了支出，因為它將在明年左右發揮作用。

Relative to the big unanswered questions, where does the government's investment end up between device design, device manufacturing, or even materials and equipment supply, my sense is, in those four areas, there's a meaningful investment level in the device manufacturing.

相對於懸而未決的大問題，政府在設備設計、設備製造、甚至材料和設備供應之間的投資最終在哪裡，我的感覺是，在這四個領域，設備製造有一個有意義的投資水平。

But I think design is going to take a lot of that money.

但我認為設計會花很多錢。

That's my instinct today.

這就是我今天的直覺。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Patrick Ho, Stifel Nicolaus.

帕特里克·何，Stifel Nicolaus。

Martin, maybe first, a big picture in terms of a lot the recent chatter on EUV from one of your peers.

馬丁，也許首先，就你的一位同行最近關於 EUV 的喋喋不休而言，這是一張大圖。

How do you see your road map relative to some of the comments out there?

相對於一些評論，你如何看待你的路線圖？

Has it changed any?

有沒有改變？

Or do you believe that things are still on track, based on a lot of the comments you've highlighted in your previous Analyst Days?

或者，根據您在之前的分析師日中強調的許多評論，您是否認為事情仍在進行中？

I think our position on EUV is almost identical today as it was at the Analyst Day.

我認為我們今天對 EUV 的立場與分析師日幾乎相同。

The customer comments continue to reinforce that 10-nanometer insertion is not the plan of record for EUV.

客戶評論繼續強調 10 納米插入不是 EUV 的記錄計劃。

And I'm even reading customer commentary that talks about non-EUV assumptions, or non-EUV possibilities for 7-nanometer logic flows, as well.

我什至還在閱讀客戶評論，其中討論了非 EUV 假設或 7 納米邏輯流程的非 EUV 可能性。

Our assumption is that 7-nanometer insertion -- first of all, it's not relevant to the calendar 2017 models of the Company, right?

我們的假設是 7 納米插入——首先，它與公司的 2017 年日曆模型無關，對吧？

So, it's a 2018 influence, if at all.

所以，這是 2018 年的影響，如果有的話。

And we think it will be implemented with multiple patterning.

我們認為它將通過多種模式來實現。

And so one of the things I'm struck by some of the external commentary that I read, there's this debate in the investment community around EUV, and a very simplistic commentary on ASML winning, Lam losing, or Lam winning and ASML losing.

因此，我讀到的一些外部評論讓我印象深刻的一件事是，投資界圍繞 EUV 展開了這場辯論，以及對 ASML 獲勝、Lam 失敗或 Lam 獲勝和 ASML 失敗的非常簡單的評論。

And I think that dramatically oversimplifies things.

我認為這大大簡化了事情。

When we look at the base EUV road map and the assumptions that we think are relevant to modeling the impact of EUV on our business at the 7-nanometer technology node, we think 2 to 3 passes is a relevant insertion magnitude for EUV, and if you want to be more aggressive, then maybe you assume 5 or 4 or 6 or even 8. But even in that more aggressive scenario, what it does for our SAM -- and remember the context for our SAM -- so long as there is multi-patterning, there is a SAM expansion opportunity for the Company.

當我們查看基本 EUV 路線圖以及我們認為與建模 EUV 對我們在 7 納米技術節點的業務的影響相關的假設時，我們認為 2 到 3 次通過是 EUV 的相關插入量級，如果如果你想要更激進，那麼你可能會假設 5 或 4 或 6 甚至 8。但即使在更激進的情況下，它對我們的 SAM 做了什麼——並記住我們的 SAM 的上下文——只要有多模式，公司有SAM擴展機會。

And if you look at the 10-nanometer technology node from the material that we've previously presented to you, there's a meaningful expansion of SAM opportunity for the Company from first-generation foundry FinFETs to the second 10-nanometer.

如果您從我們之前向您展示的材料中查看 10 納米技術節點，那麼公司的 SAM 機會從第一代晶圓代工 FinFET 到第二個 10 納米有一個有意義的擴展。

And we still believe there's SAM expansion going to 7-nanometer, even with the aggressive adoption that we've characterized.

而且我們仍然相信 SAM 將擴展到 7 納米，即使我們已經描述了積極的採用。

So if you want to be extremely conservative about the impact of EUV on the SAM of Lam Research, you'd maybe size the impact to a couple hundred million dollars.

因此，如果您想對 EUV 對 Lam Research 的 SAM 的影響極為保守，您可能會將影響定為數億美元。

But it is not any more than that from the perspective that we have on insertion, even with a 6 to 8 pass assumption at the 7-nanometer technology node.

但從我們對插入的角度來看，這僅此而已，即使在 7 納米技術節點上假設通過 6 到 8 次。

Great.

偉大的。

That's really helpful, Martin.

這真的很有幫助，馬丁。

A question for Doug as my follow-up.

道格的一個問題作為我的後續行動。

In terms of the gross margin outlook for December, what's the key variable for your outlook there?

就 12 月的毛利率前景而言，您的前景的關鍵變量是什麼？

Is it more customer concentration mix or product mix, given that the volumes obviously are higher in terms of both shipments and revenues?

考慮到出貨量和收入方面的銷量顯然更高，是更集中的客戶組合還是產品組合？

It's a little bit of all of that.

這只是其中的一小部分。

Customer mix actually might be the biggest one every quarter, Patrick.

帕特里克，客戶組合實際上可能是每個季度最大的一個。

But to the extent that things unfold the way we expect going into this quarter through the December quarter, I feel pretty good about the 45.5% that we put out.

但就事情的發展方式而言，我們對本季度至 12 月季度的預期是這樣的，我對我們推出的 45.5% 感到非常滿意。

Interestingly, if you look at the last quarter, the quarter unfolded pretty much as we expected, almost to every single customer.

有趣的是，如果您查看上一季度，該季度的發展幾乎與我們預期的一樣，幾乎對每一位客戶都是如此。

And if that happens, I feel pretty good about that gross margin forecast.

如果發生這種情況，我對毛利率預測感到非常滿意。

Just to add a little bit to that -- and this is as much as you're going to get on March -- I think the Deposition portfolio, which has a greater magnitude of new product releases which are maturing in terms of demonstrating value and also cost reduction to the Company, definitely, there's a greater proportion of Deposition products in our mix in December than in September.

再補充一點——這和你在 3 月份將要得到的一樣多——我認為 Deposition 投資組合，它有更多的新產品發布，這些新產品在展示價值和還降低了公司的成本，毫無疑問，我們在 12 月份的組合中，沉積產品的比例比 9 月份要大。

So that's to Doug's point part of the story.

這就是道格的故事的重點部分。

But the concentration of the business in December is actually not so very different from September, from a customer point of view.

但從客戶的角度來看，12 月的業務集中度實際上與 9 月相差不大。

But for March, it will be very concentrated.

但對於三月，它將非常集中。

So our outlook right now for March is the top three customers will represent, for us, maybe two thirds of our system shipments.

因此，我們現在對 3 月份的展望是，對我們而言，前三位客戶將占我們系統出貨量的三分之二。

And that compares with about the 45% level for December.

相比之下，12 月份的水平約為 45%。

So concentration of customers is definitely going to be a relevant part of our conversation in the March quarter, based on what we see today.

因此，根據我們今天看到的情況，客戶集中度肯定會成為我們在 3 月季度對話的相關部分。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Mark Heller, CLSA.

馬克·海勒，里昂證券。

Martin, I was wondering if you could give a little bit more color as far as the node spending trend within the 45% for Foundry during the quarter.

Martin，我想知道您是否可以就本季度 Foundry 的 45% 內的節點支出趨勢提供更多顏色。

Are you seeing a lot of FinFET within that?

您是否在其中看到了很多 FinFET？

And can you also give some geographic trends as far as where you're seeing spending strengths within Foundry?

就您在 Foundry 中看到的支出優勢而言，您能否提供一些地理趨勢？

Maybe I'll start, and then I'll -- this is Doug, Mark -- I'll let Martin embellish.

也許我會開始，然後我會——這是道格，馬克——我會讓馬丁潤色。

We saw a decent amount across a lot of different programs, a lot of different customers.

我們在許多不同的項目、許多不同的客戶中看到了可觀的數量。

We saw spending at 28.

我們看到了 28 歲的支出。

We saw a little bit at 20.

我們在 20 歲時看到了一點。

And we saw some at that first FinFET node, 16 FinFET.

我們在第一個 FinFET 節點上看到了一些，16 FinFET。

So it was pretty broad in September, and we expect that's going to continue going into December, as well.

所以它在 9 月相當廣泛，我們預計這也將持續到 12 月。

I have nothing to add.

我沒有什麼要補充的。

Awesome.

驚人的。

And maybe as my follow-up, Doug then, can you maybe give us an estimate for the shipment split in December, as well?

也許作為我的後續行動，Doug 那麼，您能否給我們估計一下 12 月份的出貨量？

You know, I'm not going to get into specifics.

你知道，我不打算進入細節。

I'll give you a little color, at least directional stuff.

我會給你一點顏色，至少是定向的東西。

I think we're going to continue to see strong Foundry shipments.

我認為我們將繼續看到強勁的 Foundry 出貨量。

And I think it's going to continue to be relatively broad-based.

而且我認為它將繼續具有相對廣泛的基礎。

Dollar-wise, probably not all that different than what we saw in the current quarter.

就美元而言，可能與我們在本季度看到的情況並沒有太大的不同。

I think Memory is going to be up a little bit.

我認為內存會上升一點。

And probably that's a statement more around DRAM than NAND, given how strong NAND was in the current quarter.

考慮到本季度 NAND 的強大程度，這可能是關於 DRAM 而非 NAND 的聲明。

And I'm guessing -- or I think Logic, actually, I'm not guessing -- Logic should be up a little bit, as well.

而且我在猜測——或者我認為邏輯，實際上，我沒有在猜測——邏輯也應該上升一點。

So that's a little bit of color to think about.

所以這是一個需要考慮的顏色。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Timothy Arcuri, Cowen and Company.

Timothy Arcuri，考恩公司。

First question, Martin, I know you don't want to say too much about March.

第一個問題，馬丁，我知道你不想對三月說太多。

But I try to ask you this pretty much every call.

但我幾乎每次電話都會問你這個問題。

So if I look at the inventory build, it would suggest that you're planning on a shipment increase in March of somewhere in the range of maybe 10% to 15%.

因此，如果我查看庫存構建，這表明您計劃在 3 月份將出貨量增加 10% 到 15% 的範圍內。

Maybe I'm not calculating that right, but I wanted to ask you that, number one.

也許我計算的不對，但我想問你，第一。

What do you think my reply is going to be, if you've asked me this question before?

如果你以前問過我這個問題，你認為我的回答會是什麼？

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Yes, I'm not going to go there right now.

是的，我現在不打算去那裡。

I think we're looking at a strong March.

我認為我們正在看到一個強勁的三月。

And I wouldn't say strong if it wasn't more than $100 million or $150 million or $200 million, which is kind of the range that you're talking about.

如果它不超過 1 億美元或 1.5 億美元或 2 億美元，我不會說強，這就是你所說的範圍。

But that's as good as you're going to get for now.

但這和你現在得到的一樣好。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

And then, Doug, also, a question on margins.

然後，Doug，還有一個關於利潤的問題。

Maybe it's sort of picking a little bit.

也許它有點挑剔。

But the guidance is a little bit below the financial model, just a smidge below.

但該指引略低於財務模型，略低於財務模型。

And that's due to the factors that you already talked about.

這是由於你已經談到的因素。

But are those going to remain in effect, given the concentration in March?

但考慮到 3 月份的集中度，這些會繼續有效嗎？

Should we expect the margin in March to also be below financial model, because of the customer concentration issues?

由於客戶集中度問題，我們是否應該期望 3 月份的利潤率也低於財務模型？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Well, Tim, actually 45.5% isn't below, at least from a gross margin standpoint, the model.

好吧，蒂姆，至少從毛利率的角度來看，實際上 45.5% 並不低於該模型。

If you remember the 14/15 model, 45% was the number.

如果您還記得 14/15 模型，那麼 45% 就是這個數字。

So we're kind of right there.

所以我們就在那裡。

I think the directional color Martin was giving you is we expect consumer concentration in the March quarter to be more concentrated.

我認為馬丁給你的方向性顏色是我們預計三月季度的消費者集中度會更加集中。

And everything else equal, that will be a little bit of a headwind from a margin standpoint.

其他一切都相同，從利潤的角度來看，這將是一個逆風。

Having said that, if we've got stronger top line, that should offset a little bit of that at the operating income line.

話雖如此，如果我們有更強的收入，那應該會抵消一點營業收入線的收入。

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

John Pitzer, Credit Suisse.

約翰·皮策，瑞士信貸。

Congratulations on the strong results.

祝賀你取得了不錯的成績。

Thanks for letting me ask a question.

謝謝你讓我問一個問題。

Martin, I want to go back to an answer you gave earlier around your expectations exiting next year for wafer start capacity at 20, 16 and 14.

Martin，我想回到你之前給出的答案，即你對明年 20、16 和 14 的晶圓啟動產能的期望。

One of your peers talked about a 175,000 number exiting this year, which relative to your 2015 expectation, would mean a lot of that spending was already done.

您的一位同行談到今年有 175,000 人退出，相對於您 2015 年的預期，這意味著大部分支出已經完成。

I'm wondering if you could give us your view on that 175,000 number or help us understand how to put your end of 2015 into perspective for the calendar year 2015?

我想知道您是否可以向我們提供您對 175,000 個數字的看法，或者幫助我們了解如何將您的 2015 年底納入 2015 日曆年？

Our end of 2014 number is 130,000 to 140,000.

我們 2014 年底的數字是 130,000 到 140,000。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

Maybe the difference is the timing of someone's order placement or it was an order commentary versus ship commentary.

也許區別在於某人下訂單的時間，或者是訂單評論與船舶評論。

We're all about ship commentary, as you know.

如您所知，我們都是關於船舶評論的。

So hopefully, that helps.

所以希望，這會有所幫助。

And then relative to Doug's answer around shipment breakdown for December, is it too much to read into the view that maybe the March quarter, or the first half of next year, you're going to see a significant step up in Memory spending?

然後相對於道格關於 12 月出貨量細分的回答，是否認為可能在 3 月季度或明年上半年，您將看到內存支出顯著增加？

And when you look at the Foundry strength in the back half of this year for you, how much of that is at the industry level versus you guys perhaps gaining some share?

當您查看今年下半年的 Foundry 實力時，其中有多少是在行業層面，而你們可能會獲得一些份額？

Relative to the Foundry performance of the Company, it's a bit of everything.

相對於公司的Foundry表現來說，無所不包。

It's the level of investment as 28-nanometer expansion occurs.

這是 28 納米擴展發生時的投資水平。

It's first-generation FinFETs get invested and committed broadly across the industry.

它的第一代 FinFET 在整個行業中得到了廣泛的投資和承諾。

And there is this 28-nanometer kind of play, as well.

還有這種 28 納米的遊戲。

So we definitely get to float with the rising tide.

所以我們肯定會隨著漲潮而漂浮。

There's a very specific commentary from the Company around SAM expansion through multi-patterning, and also 3D device architecture and Logic.

該公司對通過多模式擴展 SAM 以及 3D 設備架構和邏輯進行了非常具體的評論。

And we've got a little bit of share gain in the mix, as well.

我們也獲得了一些份額收益。

But as I've mentioned a number of times, I think the primary story for the Company is the SAM expansion story.

但正如我多次提到的，我認為公司的主要故事是 SAM 擴張故事。

The market share is definitely a bonus for us, but a very important part of what we're investing to achieve.

市場份額對我們來說絕對是一個紅利，但也是我們投資實現目標的一個非常重要的部分。

You had a second part to the question, which I've forgotten, I think.

你對這個問題有第二部分，我想我已經忘記了。

Sorry.

對不起。

Memory trends into the first half of next year.

內存趨勢進入明年上半年。

It's sounds like we could set up for a pretty good Memory half in the first half of 2015?

聽起來我們可以在 2015 年上半年設置一個相當不錯的內存一半？

Yes, I think so.

是的，我想是這樣。

I think Memory will be up, but we're not going to give you first half, second half, specifically.

我認為內存會增加，但我們不會特別給你上半場，下半場。

Perfect.

完美的。

Thanks, guys.

多謝你們。

Jim Covello, Goldman Sachs.

吉姆·科維羅，高盛。

Question, also on the financial model.

問題，也是關於財務模型的。

Tim had asked about the model relative to March.

蒂姆詢問了相對於三月的模型。

I would ask about the model relative to the full year 2015.

我會詢問相對於 2015 年全年的模型。

At the top end of your WFE range, assuming we come in at $32 billion this year, at the top end of the guidance for next year, we'd be in that $35 billion-plus range.

在你的 WFE 範圍的頂端，假設我們今年的收入為 320 億美元，在明年指導的頂端，我們將在 350 億美元以上的範圍內。

Your financial model contemplates a certain earnings number.

您的財務模型考慮了某個收入數字。

I believe that was for 2016-2017, the $35 million wafer fab equipment.

我相信那是 2016-2017 年，價值 3500 萬美元的晶圓廠設備。

How different do you think your earnings might be in 2015 if we get to that $35 billion number, compared to what you would've had in the model in 2016 and 2017?

與 2016 年和 2017 年的模型相比，如果我們達到 350 億美元的數字，您認為 2015 年您的收入可能會有多大不同？

If you could help us out, that would be great.

如果你能幫助我們，那就太好了。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Yes.

是的。

(Multiple speakers).

（多個揚聲器）。

Are we both going to do this?

我們倆都要這樣做嗎？

Go ahead.

前進。

All I was going to say -- and then feel free to add on, Martin -- Jim, is there's a time component of that model, as well just the level of top line, also.

所有我要說的——然後隨意補充，馬丁——吉姆，那個模型有一個時間組成部分，還有頂線的水平。

Part of this is maturation of some new tools, that gross margin gets better as we mature the product line.

部分原因是一些新工具的成熟，隨著我們產品線的成熟，毛利率會變得更好。

So there's a time component in addition to just volume.

因此，除了音量之外，還有一個時間分量。

So it wouldn't be as good were we to get that spending level earlier than the 2016-2017 profile.

因此，如果我們早於 2016-2017 年的配置文件獲得該支出水平，那將不會那麼好。

It should probably be part way in between the two models.

它可能應該是兩個模型之間的一部分。

I think in terms of the output of the Company, and the business sales in the Company, we're tracking ahead of 2014 and 2015 revenue level, as many of you guys have made that point.

我認為就公司的產出和公司的業務銷售而言，我們正在跟踪 2014 年和 2015 年的收入水平，因為你們中的許多人都已經表明了這一點。

But to Doug's point, timing is a very significant part.

但在 Doug 看來，時機是一個非常重要的部分。

Or the passing time is a very significant part of the 2016 and 2017 model.

或者流逝的時間是 2016 年和 2017 年模型中非常重要的部分。

And it's not just about maturing products, which is very important, but it's about the magnitude of WFE, which is at an inflection.

這不僅僅是關於成熟的產品，這非常重要，而是關於 WFE 的規模，這是一個拐點。

It's about the success of market share growth plans in the Company over multiple years.

這是關於公司多年來市場份額增長計劃的成功。

So 2016 and 2017 really does mean 2016 and 2017.

所以 2016 年和 2017 年確實意味著 2016 年和 2017 年。

So my advice relative to modeling 2015 is use the 2014, 2015 model that we've given you and flex it for the WFE assumption.

因此，我對 2015 年建模的建議是使用我們提供給您的 2014、2015 年模型，並針對 WFE 假設進行調整。

That's what I would do.

這就是我會做的。

And more or less, the 25% operating expense level that's defined in 2014 and 2015 is a legitimate reference point for the Company.

或多或少，2014 年和 2015 年定義的 25% 運營費用水平是公司的合法參考點。

That's really, really helpful.

這真的，真的很有幫助。

I appreciate that.

我很感激。

And then just one follow-up.

然後只是一個後續行動。

I think I know the answer to this, but I just want to make sure.

我想我知道這個問題的答案，但我只是想確定一下。

Based on your comments that you said for March, you would expect the book-to-bill in December to be above 1?

根據您對 3 月份所說的評論，您預計 12 月份的訂單出貨量將高於 1？

Yes, I would.

是的，我會。

But it doesn't trouble me if it isn't.

但如果不是，它不會給我帶來麻煩。

Because the magnitude of backlog in this industry today is insanely low.

因為今天這個行業的積壓量非常低。

And it's about versatility and flexibility to respond to short-term demand.

它是關於響應短期需求的多功能性和靈活性。

So the magnitude of order placements and shipments in short order is high.

因此，短訂單下訂單和出貨量很大。

And these days, the conversion of shipments to revenues is pretty high, as well.

如今，出貨量轉化為收入的轉化率也相當高。

Very helpful.

非常有幫助。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

Congrats.

恭喜。

Harlan Sur, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的哈蘭蘇爾。

Martin, thanks for the preliminary WFE spending outlook for next year.

馬丁，感謝 WFE 明年的初步支出展望。

I know you've talked about the 33% mix of inflection technologies.

我知道你談到了 33% 的變形技術組合。

But can you give us a sense on the relative contribution to the growth, NAND versus DRAM versus Foundry and Logic next year?

但是你能否告訴我們明年 NAND 與 DRAM 與 Foundry 和 Logic 對增長的相對貢獻？

Yes.

是的。

I feel like I'm going to be pretty miserable at responding to that, honestly.

老實說，我覺得我會很難回答這個問題。

Because I think you had a version of that question on the last call.

因為我認為您在上次通話時有這個問題的版本。

And we've given you that answer for the 2017 horizon, the 2016, 2017 horizon.

我們已經為您提供了 2017 年、2016 年、2017 年的答案。

And I'll just kind of refresh that as a reference, so everybody has it.

我只是刷新一下作為參考，所以每個人都有它。

So in the context of the $2 billion SAM that we defined, we've said that $800 million, plus or minus $100 million, is in the Foundry Logic space, which includes device architecture and multi-patterning; $300 million, plus or minus $50 million, is in the DRAM space, which in large part is a multi-patterning; $600 million, plus or minus $100 million, is NAND, in large part, 3D NAND; and the advanced packaging opportunity is $300 million, plus or minus $100 million.

因此，在我們定義的 20 億美元 SAM 的背景下，我們已經說過 8 億美元（上下 1 億美元）在 Foundry Logic 領域，其中包括設備架構和多模式； 3 億美元，上下 5000 萬美元用於 DRAM 領域，這在很大程度上是一種多模式； 6 億美元，上下 1 億美元是 NAND，在很大程度上是 3D NAND；高級封裝機會為 3 億美元，上下浮動 1 億美元。

And a big part of that is obviously 3D transition through silicon via.

其中很大一部分顯然是通過矽通孔的 3D 過渡。

So that's kind of the reference point.

所以這是一種參考點。

Now what is going to be prevalent and most dominant in that context in calendar 2015?

現在，在 2015 年日曆中，在這種情況下，什麼會流行和最占主導地位？

I think the answer to that question is multi-patterning in Logic and DRAM, FinFET device transition.

我認為這個問題的答案是邏輯和 DRAM、FinFET 器件轉換中的多模式。

And we will see a continued deployment of 3D NAND.

我們將看到 3D NAND 的持續部署。

But I think calendar 2016 will be a much stronger play than 2015 for 3D NAND HVM.

但我認為 2016 年的日曆對於 3D NAND HVM 來說將比 2015 年更強大。

I think there will be a meaningful addition of 3D NAND capacity in 2015, but I don't think it will compare to the additions in 2016.

我認為 3D NAND 容量在 2015 年會有有意義的增加，但我認為不會與 2016 年的增加相比。

And advanced packaging, I would say, is going to show up, but it's probably, again, more of a 2016 play in substance than 2015, at this point.

我想說，先進的封裝將會出現，但在這一點上，它可能再次成為 2016 年的實質內容，而不是 2015 年。

Hopefully, that's some color that you can work with.

希望這是您可以使用的一些顏色。

Yes.

是的。

I appreciate that.

我很感激。

One of the interesting dynamics in the Memory segment is that as we transition to these inflection technology nodes, there's actually a loss of capacity for a fixed area of floor space.

內存領域的一個有趣動態是，當我們過渡到這些拐點技術節點時，實際上固定面積的空間會損失容量。

So obviously, this is true for the migration to the 2X nanometer node for DRAM.

很明顯，這對於遷移到 DRAM 的 2X 納米節點來說是正確的。

I think we're hearing as much as 15% capacity reduction.

我認為我們聽到的容量減少了多達 15%。

Are you seeing the same impact on the NAND suppliers as they transition to 16- and 15-nanometer planar technologies?

當 NAND 供應商過渡到 16 和 15 納米平面技術時，您是否看到了同樣的影響？

And the second question is, are your tools and flows -- how are your tools and flows helping your customers to alleviate some of these capacity challenges?

第二個問題是，您的工具和流程是否——您的工具和流程如何幫助您的客戶緩解這些容量挑戰？

Well, I definitely think that the impact on output for square foot of clean room in the DRAM space is a very relevant conversation.

好吧，我絕對認為 DRAM 空間對潔淨室平方英尺輸出的影響是一個非常相關的話題。

And certainly, to the extent there are additions of capacity forecasted and assumed for DRAM next year, they don't take the baseline of available capacity up in any meaningful way, for the reason that you've just described.

當然，就明年 DRAM 的預測和假設容量增加而言，由於您剛才描述的原因，它們並沒有以任何有意義的方式提高可用容量的基線。

So I think we've got about a 60,000 wafer start assumption for 2015 adds.

所以我認為我們對 2015 年新增晶圓的啟動假設約為 60,000 片。

But those adds just simply keep available capacity almost flat year on year.

但這些增加只是簡單地保持可用容量同比幾乎持平。

In the NAND space, my instinct is the conversation is much more relevant in the planar to 3D transition than it is in traditional planar scaling.

在 NAND 空間中，我的直覺是，與傳統平面縮放相比，平面到 3D 轉換中的對話更相關。

I'm sure there's some elements, but I haven't seen it show up prominently in conversations with the customers.

我敢肯定有一些元素，但我還沒有看到它在與客戶的對話中突出顯示。

Where it's huge at the customer interface is in planar to 3D transition in NAND Flash.

它在客戶界面的巨大之處在於 NAND 閃存中的平面到 3D 過渡。

That's a big one, in terms of complexity of line layouts and density of process chambers in a clean room.

就生產線佈局的複雜性和潔淨室中工藝室的密度而言，這是一個很大的問題。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Steven Chin, UBS.

瑞銀的史蒂文·欽。

I had a follow-up question, Martin, on the market share at the technology inflections.

我有一個後續問題，馬丁，關於技術拐點的市場份額。

Do you think the market share at these technology inflections can go higher than your 50% target, if there's still uncertainty between this merger between Applied and Tokyo Electron?

如果 Applied 和 Tokyo Electron 的合併之間仍然存在不確定性，您認為這些技術拐點的市場份額會高於您 50% 的目標嗎？

That will be our plan.

這將是我們的計劃。

(Laughter) I mean, it's -- we're working really hard to take advantage of every opportunity, including any opportunities that are provided by competitors being distracted in any way, shape or form.

（笑聲）我的意思是，我們非常努力地利用每一個機會，包括競爭對手提供的任何機會，以任何方式、形式或形式分心。

And if that distraction happens to be a merger, if a merger's approved, because integrating companies is not an easy skill to acquire.

如果這種分心恰好是合併，如果合併獲得批准，因為整合公司並不是一項容易獲得的技能。

It's extremely difficult.

這是極其困難的。

We're going to work hard to exploit every single opportunity to grow this Company.

我們將努力利用每一個機會來發展這家公司。

And that's a SAM expansion statement and it's a market share statement.

這是 SAM 擴展聲明，也是市場份額聲明。

And you know, we'll see how this plays out.

你知道，我們會看看結果如何。

But that's the plan.

但這就是計劃。

Okay.

好的。

And I also have a follow-up question on the financial model.

我還有一個關於財務模型的後續問題。

Does the model include higher shipments to a large Logic customer?

該模型是否包括對大型 Logic 客戶的更高出貨量？

I was wondering if these Logic shipments start ramping in the December quarter, if that is also in this long-term model?

我想知道這些 Logic 出貨量是否在 12 月季度開始增加，如果這也是這種長期模式？

Thanks.

謝謝。

All of the share gain opportunities that you've heard us talk about before are comprehended in the model.

您之前聽到我們談論的所有分享機會都包含在模型中。

Said differently, yes.

換個說法，是的。

Mahesh Sanganeria, RBC Capital Markets.

Mahesh Sanganeria，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

This is Shawn Yuan for Mahesh.

這是 Mahesh 的 Shawn Yuan。

Martin, we appreciate that you provided color to the 2015 WFE.

Martin，我們感謝您為 2015 WFE 提供顏色。

But 5% to 10% is a relatively broad range.

但 5% 到 10% 是一個相對較寬的範圍。

I don't know you want to comment specifically on the segment movement, but we are wondering can you talk qualitatively which segments are going to grow towards the higher end of the range, which segments are below the range?

我不知道您想具體評論細分市場的變化，但我們想知道您能否定性地談論哪些細分市場將向范圍的高端增長，哪些細分市場低於範圍？

Just qualitatively, any color would be helpful.

就質量而言，任何顏色都會有所幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

I think it's very similar to the answer I gave a few moments ago.

我認為這與我剛才給出的答案非常相似。

I think that planar scaling in NAND Flash is clearly the majority of spending next year.

我認為 NAND 閃存的平面縮放顯然是明年的主要支出。

And that's a very tight space.

這是一個非常狹窄的空間。

Supply and demand balance is really tight there, and you can see that evidenced in the pricing stability and profitability levels of our customers.

那裡的供需平衡非常緊張，您可以從我們客戶的定價穩定性和盈利水平中看到這一點。

I think the investment in DRAM next year, to a very large extent, is very efficient.

我認為明年對DRAM的投資，在很大程度上是非常有效率的。

It's about technology conversions.

這是關於技術轉換的。

There are performance benefits associated with the shrink, but there's meaningful cost benefits to the shrink.

收縮帶來了性能優勢，但收縮帶來了有意義的成本優勢。

So I think the motivation of customers to take advantage of an opportunity to invest, to improve their financial performance with the cost benefits of scaling, is clearly the very important part of their commitment.

因此，我認為客戶利用投資機會的動機，通過擴展的成本效益來改善他們的財務業績，顯然是他們承諾的非常重要的部分。

And there is a pretty aggressive race to the FinFET Foundry opportunity.

FinFET 代工機會的競爭非常激烈。

So those are the influences that I think are relevant to answering your question for the industry.

因此，我認為這些影響與回答您對行業的問題有關。

For the Company, our big growth trajectories are multi-patterning in Logic and DRAM.

對於公司而言，我們的大增長軌跡是邏輯和 DRAM 的多模式。

And 3D device architecture is very beneficial for the Company, and that's valid in the Logic space.

3D 設備架構對公司非常有利，這在邏輯領域是有效的。

And it will be valid in the 3D NAND space, as well.

它也適用於 3D NAND 空間。

But again, to my earlier point, not to the extent that I expect it to be relevant as people transition -- as everybody transitions, I think, out of pilot into HVM in the calendar 2016 timeline.

但同樣，就我之前的觀點而言，我認為它與人們過渡的程度無關——我認為，在 2016 年日曆時間表中，每個人都從試點過渡到 HVM。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

We have time for two more callers.

我們有時間再接兩個來電者。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Weston Twigg, Pacific Crest Securities.

Weston Twigg，Pacific Crest 證券。

First, just on the 3D NAND piece.

首先，就在 3D NAND 塊上。

Wondering if you're seeing customers decommit a little bit from what you expected earlier this year?

想知道您是否看到客戶與今年早些時候的預期有所不同？

I think previously you were looking at maybe 80,000 wafer starts.

我認為以前您可能會看到 80,000 個晶圓啟動。

Now you're talking 60,000.

現在你說的是60,000。

And earlier this year, you were thinking that 2015 would be the volume ramp year.

今年早些時候，您認為 2015 年將是銷量增長的一年。

So just curious of your thoughts on customer activity on 3D NAND.

所以只是好奇您對 3D NAND 客戶活動的看法。

I think all of our customers have more or less said the same thing, right?

我想我們所有的客戶或多或少都說了同樣的話，對吧？

They've said they're working really hard to extend planar as much as possible and as long as possible.

他們說他們正在努力盡可能多地擴展平面。

But I think they're all invested in the legitimacy of a 3D NAND transition, and there's commitment by all of them to development and deployment.

但我認為他們都投資於 3D NAND 過渡的合法性，並且他們都致力於開發和部署。

I had expected -- if I look at the beginning of this year -- I had expected the performance and the cost benefits of 3D device to have matured sufficiently by the end of 2014, the kind of market dynamics accelerated the stated timelines of all four customers that have engagements.

我曾預計——如果我回顧今年年初——我曾預計 3D 設備的性能和成本優勢將在 2014 年底之前充分成熟，這種市場動態加速了所有四個規定的時間表有約定的客戶。

And it hasn't played out in quite that way.

而且它並沒有以這種方式發揮作用。

And so I think the original commentary from customers around a 2- or 3-year timeline difference between first adopter and last adopter is probably as valid today as any reference point.

因此，我認為客戶關於第一個採用者和最後一個採用者之間 2 年或 3 年時間線差異的原始評論在今天可能與任何參考點一樣有效。

So I think HVM transition is relevant in calendar 2015, but I don't think it's relevant for everybody.

所以我認為 HVM 過渡與 2015 年日曆相關，但我不認為它與每個人都相關。

I think the HVM relevancy for everybody at 3D NAND is going to be a 2016 play.

我認為 3D NAND 中每個人的 HVM 相關性將成為 2016 年的一齣戲。

Now, all bets are off if someone is in the marketplace with significant performance and cost benefits and deployments, it gets pulled in, which was my hypothesis before.

現在，如果有人在市場上具有顯著的性能和成本優勢以及部署，那麼所有的賭注都會被取消，它會被拉進來，這是我之前的假設。

And maybe that shows up.

也許這會出現。

And if it does, I think life will get pretty exciting pretty quickly.

如果確實如此，我認為生活很快就會變得非常令人興奮。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then thinking about this a bit further, so you identified double patterning and 3D NAND as your main SAM expansion drivers over the next couple of years, but you also indicated that the Foundry spend is still fairly heavy at 28-nanometer right now and that the NAND producers are still focused on planar extension.

然後再進一步考慮這個問題，因此您確定雙圖案和 3D NAND 是您未來幾年的主要 SAM 擴展驅動力，但您還表示，目前 28 納米的 Foundry 支出仍然相當高，而且NAND生產商仍然專注於平面擴展。

So is there some risk developing around your ideas on SAM expansion in 2015?

那麼，您對 2015 年 SAM 擴展的想法是否存在一些風險？

No.

不。

I don't think so.

我不這麼認為。

I think we feel very comfortable with the assumption of the one third of WFE being inflection-based next year.

我認為我們對明年三分之一的 WFE 基於拐點的假設感到非常滿意。

I think the 28-nanometer investment is supplemental and takes what already was a node that was in the 330,000 wafer starts per month range and makes it even a little bit bigger.

我認為 28 納米的投資是補充性的，它佔用了已經是每月啟動 330,000 片晶圓的節點，並使其更大一點。

It's a lot cheaper, obviously, for our customers to add 28-nanometer capacity than FinFET capacity.

顯然，對於我們的客戶來說，增加 28 納米容量比增加 FinFET 容量要便宜得多。

So in spite of the fact that it's a decent number of wafer starts, it's economic consequence is lower.

因此，儘管它的晶圓啟動數量相當可觀，但其經濟後果卻較低。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks a lot.

非常感謝。

Romit Shah, Nomura Securities.

Romit Shah，野村證券。

Doug, is 50% to 60% incremental gross margin still the right way to think about the model, potentially for next year, in light of some of the customer concentration you expect to see in March?

道格，鑑於您預計在 3 月份會看到一些客戶集中度，50% 到 60% 的增量毛利率是否仍然是考慮該模型的正確方式，可能是明年？

Romit, I would redirect you back to the financial model, which in 2014-2015 shows 45% gross margin and roughly 20% operating income as the right way to be modeling the business next year.

Romit，我將把你重新引導回財務模型，在 2014-2015 年顯示 45% 的毛利率和大約 20% 的營業收入是明年為業務建模的正確方法。

Okay.

好的。

And then just one final question on the current environment.

然後是關於當前環境的最後一個問題。

If I take the midpoint in December, it would imply that revenues for the second half of the calendar year come in about $100 million below your guidance of flat.

如果我取 12 月的中點，這意味著日曆年下半年的收入比您的持平指導低約 1 億美元。

And at the same time, you seem to be more positive on March.

同時，你在三月似乎更加積極。

I'm just wondering if there was any dynamic here with a particular customer or program that's influencing your guidance for December, as well as how you're thinking about the March period?

我只是想知道這裡是否有任何與特定客戶或程序有關的動態影響您 12 月的指導，以及您對 3 月期間的看法？

With due respect, I went to an awful lot of trouble last quarter to say not precisely flat.

恕我直言，上個季度我費了很大的勁說不完全平坦。

And I think a 51/49 profile, which is kind of the mathematical derivative of the midpoint, is pretty consistent with what I tried to position in the last earnings call.

而且我認為 51/49 的配置文件，這是中點的數學導數，與我在上次財報電話會議中試圖定位的結果非常一致。

And obviously, relative to running the Company and making choices about investments in the future and the growth of the Company and positioning to exploit SAM expansion and market share opportunities as they exist, when we get these kind of ebbs and flows -- and I realize $100 million is a lot of money -- but when we get to these ebbs and flows, they're not actually very material to us in terms of how we think about running the Company.

顯然，相對於運營公司和選擇對未來的投資和公司的增長以及利用現有的 SAM 擴張和市場份額機會的定位，當我們遇到這種潮起潮落時——我意識到1 億美元是一大筆錢——但當我們談到這些起起落落時，就我們如何看待運營公司而言，它們實際上對我們來說並不是很重要。

And the difference between December and January is not worth a huge amount of anything to us.

12 月和 1 月之間的差異對我們來說並不重要。

It's important to be aware of, it's important to be transparent on.

重要的是要意識到，重要的是要保持透明。

And you have our commitment to continue to try to do the best we can in that context.

我們承諾在這種情況下繼續努力做到最好。

Got it.

知道了。

Thank you, Martin.

謝謝你，馬丁。

Thank you for joining us today.

感謝您今天加入我們。

Please visit our Investor page, at lamresearch.com, for further information on our Company and to hear a playback of this call, which will be available later this afternoon.

請訪問我們的投資者頁面 lamresearch.com，了解有關我們公司的更多信息，並收聽本次電話會議的回放，該電話將於今天下午晚些時候播出。

This concludes our call.

我們的電話到此結束。

Thank you, everyone.

謝謝大家。

That does conclude our conference for today.

這確實結束了我們今天的會議。

We thank you for your participation.

我們感謝您的參與。