科林研發 (LRCX) 2015 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day everyone, and welcome to the Lam Research Corporation December 2014 Conference Call.

大家好，歡迎參加 Lam Research Corporation 2014 年 12 月的電話會議。

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Audrey Charles, Senior Director, Investor Relations.

此時，我想將會議轉交給投資者關係高級總監 Audrey Charles。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Good afternoon everyone, and welcome to the Lam Research Quarterly Conference Call.

大家下午好，歡迎參加 Lam Research 季度電話會議。

With me today are Martin Anstice, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Doug Bettinger, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

今天和我在一起的是總裁兼首席執行官 Martin Anstice；以及執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Doug Bettinger。

During today's call we will share our outlook on the business environment, and review our financial results for the December 2014 quarter and our outlook for the March 2015 quarter.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將分享我們對商業環境的展望，並回顧我們 2014 年 12 月季度的財務業績和 2015 年 3 月季度的展望。

The press release detailing our financial results was distributed a little after 1 p.m.

詳細說明我們財務業績的新聞稿在下午 1 點後發布。

this afternoon.

今天下午。

It can also be found on the Investor Relations section of the Company website, along with the presentation slides that accompany today's call.

它也可以在公司網站的投資者關係部分以及今天電話會議隨附的演示幻燈片中找到。

Today's presentation and Q&A will include statements about our expectations and beliefs regarding certain future outcomes, including our outlook.

今天的演講和問答將包括關於我們對某些未來結果的期望和信念的陳述，包括我們的展望。

A more comprehensive list of forward-looking topics that we expect to cover is shown on the slide deck accompanying my remarks.

我們期望涵蓋的更全面的前瞻性主題列表顯示在我的評論隨附的幻燈片上。

All statements made that are not historical in fact are forward-looking statements based on current information, and are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially.

事實上，所有非歷史性的陳述都是基於當前信息的前瞻性陳述，並受到可能導致實際結果產生重大差異的風險和不確定性的影響。

We encourage you to review the risk factors disclosure in our public filings, including our 10-K and 10-Q.

我們鼓勵您查看我們的公開文件中披露的風險因素，包括我們的 10-K 和 10-Q。

The Company undertakes no obligation to update forward-looking statements.

本公司不承擔更新前瞻性陳述的義務。

Today's discussion of our financial results will be presented on a non-GAAP financial basis, unless otherwise specified.

除非另有說明，今天對我們財務業績的討論將在非公認會計原則財務基礎上進行。

A detailed reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP results can be found in today's earnings press release.

可以在今天的收益新聞稿中找到 GAAP 和非 GAAP 結果之間的詳細核對。

This call is scheduled to last until 3 p.m.

這次電話會議計劃持續到下午 3 點。

Pacific time.

太平洋時間。

And as always, we ask that you limit questions to one per firm, with a very brief follow-up, so that we can accommodate as many questions as possible.

與往常一樣，我們要求您將問題限制在每家公司一個，並進行非常簡短的跟進，以便我們能夠容納盡可能多的問題。

As a reminder, a webcast replay of this call will be available later this afternoon on our website.

提醒一下，今天下午晚些時候將在我們的網站上提供此次電話會議的網絡重播。

With that, I will hand the call over to Martin.

有了這個，我會把電話交給馬丁。

Thank you Audrey.

謝謝奧黛麗。

Good afternoon everyone, and thank you for joining us today.

大家下午好，感謝您今天加入我們。

We will start by speaking to our December quarter results, supplemented by a review of calendar 2014 milestones, with comments on their relevance to the future growth and opportunities for the Company.

我們將首先介紹我們 12 月的季度業績，並輔以對 2014 年日曆里程碑的回顧，並就其與公司未來增長和機遇的相關性發表評論。

We will then segue to provide an update to our outlook for wafer fab equipment spending in 2015.

然後，我們將繼續更新我們對 2015 年晶圓廠設備支出的展望。

Then, more specific to Lam as we enter a new year that marks the 35th anniversary of the Company, we want to take this opportunity to outline our focus for the year, and provide some context for the multi-year outperformance potential that exists as a result of the Company's vision and execution.

然後，更具體地說，隨著我們進入標誌著公司成立 35 週年的新的一年，我們想藉此機會概述我們今年的重點，並為存在的多年表現潛力提供一些背景公司願景和執行的結果。

I will then hand the call over to Doug for a review of our financial and operational performance.

然後，我將把電話交給 Doug，以審查我們的財務和運營業績。

The December quarter concluded with results in line with our expectations, showing strength across all metrics, and reinforcing our outperformance trend for calendar 2014.

12 月季度的結果符合我們的預期，在所有指標上都顯示出強勁的勢頭，並強化了我們 2014 日曆年的優異表現趨勢。

Within the quarter, we grew our backlog by greater than 20%.

在本季度內，我們的積壓訂單增長了 20% 以上。

Additionally our deferred revenue balance has increased, which we expect to continue with the shipment strength anticipated in the first half of 2015.

此外，我們的遞延收入餘額有所增加，預計 2015 年上半年的出貨量將繼續增長。

December was the sixth consecutive quarter of greater than $1 billion in revenues, and concluded a record-breaking year for the Company, with total annual revenue reaching $4.9 billion.

12 月是連續第六個季度收入超過 10 億美元，並結束了公司創紀錄的一年，年總收入達到 49 億美元。

Our revenue growth rates, we believe, outperformed the industry by a factor of two, with profits expansion at more than twice the pace of our revenue growth.

我們相信，我們的收入增長率超過行業兩倍，利潤增長速度是我們收入增長速度的兩倍多。

The strong December quarter marked the end of a very rewarding year for Lam that featured the delivery of record-setting performance, execution on our market-share gain and SAM expansion opportunities that exceeded expectations; and a high level of focus on increasing innovation in everything that we do.

強勁的 12 月季度標誌著 Lam 收穫頗豐的一年的結束，其特點是創造了創紀錄的業績、執行了我們的市場份額增長和超出預期的 SAM 擴張機會；並高度關注在我們所做的一切中增加創新。

In turn, we believe that the differentiated culture, values, and management system of the Company have enabled effective scaling necessary for making profitable growth sustainable.

反過來，我們認為，公司的差異化文化、價值觀和管理體系已實現了實現盈利增長可持續所必需的有效擴展。

In 2014 we made meaningful progress against our market share targets, introducing new products and services to participate in the market-expansion opportunities of the various technology inflections, including multi-patterning, FinFET, 3-D NAND, and advanced packaging.

2014 年，我們在實現市場份額目標方面取得了有意義的進展，推出了新產品和服務，以參與各種技術拐點的市場擴張機會，包括多圖案化、FinFET、3-D NAND 和先進封裝。

We believe we exited calendar 2014 with an inflection-based market share across the portfolio of deposition, etch, and clean in excess of 50%, a double-digit increase compared with our total Company pre-inflections baseline.

我們相信，我們在 2014 年結束時在沉積、蝕刻和清潔產品組合中基於拐點的市場份額超過 50%，與我們公司拐點前的總基線相比增長了兩位數。

Our strong early position, combined with our unwavering commitment to customer trust and value-enhancing collaboration, positions us to continue to drive our theme of outperformance over the next several years.

我們強大的早期地位，加上我們對客戶信任和增值合作的堅定承諾，使我們能夠在未來幾年繼續推動我們的卓越表現主題。

Evidenced by our relative revenue growth these last two years, and further under-pinned by our March quarter 2015 guidance today, we accelerated our achievements towards 2017 market share targets, which called for a 4% to 8% increase in deposition market share, 3 to 5 percentage points in etch, and 5 to 10 percentage points in clean.

過去兩年我們的相對收入增長證明，以及我們今天 2015 年 3 月季度的指導進一步支持，我們加快了實現 2017 年市場份額目標的速度，這要求沉積市場份額增加 4% 至 8%，3蝕刻 5 個百分點，清潔 5 到 10 個百分點。

As previously shared, we maintained a 90% success rate across all plans, penetrations, and defenses in 2014.

如前所述，我們在 2014 年的所有計劃、滲透和防禦中保持 90% 的成功率。

As such, we believe that our corporate market share has increased by 200 basis points to the 42% level in calendar year 2014.

因此，我們相信我們的企業市場份額在 2014 日曆年增加了 200 個基點，達到 42% 的水平。

At least as importantly, we conclude that we increased our available market size from approximately 26.5% of WFE to 27.5% of WFE in 2014, through the successful introduction of new products.

至少同樣重要的是，我們得出結論，通過成功推出新產品，我們將可用市場規模從 WFE 的約 26.5% 增加到 2014 年 WFE 的 27.5%。

We've always judged our ability to lead and execute predictably to be one of Lam's core competitive strengths.

我們一直認為我們的領導能力和可預測的執行能力是林的核心競爭優勢之一。

We feel that the results presented today again are evidence of very strong execution; but even more noteworthy, perhaps, a demonstration of execution capability through a period when we are scaling the Company real time, preparing for an even more exciting future.

我們認為今天再次展示的結果證明了非常強大的執行力；但更值得一提的是，在我們實時擴展公司規模、為更激動人心的未來做準備的時期，我們展示了執行能力。

For example, last year we expanded our investment in fundamental research and C&F activities.

例如，去年我們擴大了對基礎研究和 C&F 活動的投資。

We added a significant number of resources in the factory and in the field.

我們在工廠和現場增加了大量資源。

We ramped all manufacturing facilities to multiple shift operations, shipped a record number of systems on time, and at quality standards that are ever more critical to our customers, all while continuing to innovate at perhaps the highest level in our history, delivering more than 20 new products and service offerings to our customers.

我們將所有製造設施提高到多班制運營，按時交付創紀錄數量的系統，並按照對我們的客戶越來越重要的質量標準，同時繼續以我們歷史上可能的最高水平進行創新，交付了 20 多個為我們的客戶提供新產品和服務。

Delivering value to all stakeholders was and continues to be a strong theme, and we believe a highlight for 2014.

為所有利益相關者創造價值一直是並將繼續是一個強有力的主題，我們相信這是 2014 年的一個亮點。

We collaborated closely with our customers and suppliers on innovations designed to meet the considerable technical and economic challenges of the industry.

我們與客戶和供應商密切合作，開展旨在應對行業巨大技術和經濟挑戰的創新。

Notably, we delivered products such as the Vector ALD oxide deposition system, targeted at extremely thin and uniform layers critical to advanced patterning, and the Flex FX dielectric etch system necessary for critical high-aspect-ratio etch.

值得注意的是，我們提供了 Vector ALD 氧化物沉積系統等產品，該系統針對的是對高級圖案化至關重要的極薄和均勻的層，以及關鍵的高縱橫比蝕刻所需的 Flex FX 電介質蝕刻系統。

Both products are experiencing unprecedented momentum in the market place.

這兩種產品都在市場上經歷了前所未有的發展勢頭。

For example, our Vector ALD oxide system output likely comes close to tripling in calendar 2015 year over year, driven primarily by patterning-related application wins.

例如，我們的 Vector ALD 氧化物系統產量可能在 2015 年同比接近三倍，這主要是受圖案化相關應用勝利的推動。

We augmented our strong earnings performance with the establishment of a $1-billion capital return program, which included the institution of our first ever quarterly dividends program.

我們通過建立 10 億美元的資本回報計劃增強了我們強勁的盈利表現，其中包括我們有史以來第一個季度股息計劃。

We're on track relative to our financial model, and are very pleased to note that in recognition of this strong financial performance, we were recently added to the NASDAQ 100 index.

相對於我們的財務模型，我們正在走上正軌，並且非常高興地註意到，鑑於這種強勁的財務表現，我們最近被納入納斯達克 100 指數。

WFE investment for 2014 was largely in line with the views we expressed through the year.

WFE 2014 年的投資與我們全年表達的觀點基本一致。

We estimate spending by our customers in 2014 WFE was approximately $32 billion.

我們估計客戶在 2014 年 WFE 的支出約為 320 億美元。

As we enter 2015, we maintain our outlook of a growth year for WFE investments.

隨著我們進入 2015 年，我們維持對 WFE 投資增長年的展望。

The predicted trends in semiconductor consumption, including demand at the leading edge and the publicly stated plans of our customers, we believe support this growth outlook.

半導體消費的預測趨勢，包括領先的需求和我們客戶公開聲明的計劃，我們相信支持這一增長前景。

But as is customary, I would add that this is predicated on a positive macroenvironment and health industry fundamentals.

但按照慣例，我要補充一點，這是基於積極的宏觀環境和健康行業基本面。

Our initial 2015 market outlook is as follows for the key segments, starting first with memory.

我們對 2015 年主要細分市場的初步市場展望如下，首先是內存。

In the DRAM segment, we see continued strength in demand, and a supply-constrained market entering the year.

在 DRAM 領域，我們看到需求持續強勁，進入今年供應受限的市場。

Strong market demand continues to be driven by mobile and enterprise DRAM growth.

強勁的市場需求繼續受到移動和企業 DRAM 增長的推動。

Pricing remained stable.

定價保持穩定。

This year, we see DRAM investments to be focused primarily on conversions to 20-nanometer.

今年，我們看到 DRAM 投資主要集中在向 20 納米的轉換上。

Projections are for DRAM bit growth of approximately 30% this year.

預計今年 DRAM 位將增長約 30%。

In the NAND space, we believe there will remain a healthy balance in overall supply and demand.

在 NAND 領域，我們相信整體供需將保持健康平衡。

NAND ASPs, as you are aware, have declined somewhat over the last quarter, but are generally expected to stabilize over the course of the year, reinforcement of continued spending discipline across the industry.

如您所知，NAND ASP 在上個季度有所下降，但通常預計會在一年中穩定下來，從而加強整個行業的持續支出紀律。

We anticipate that NAND WFE investment will include planar conversions, and 3-D NAND capacity additions in 2015, with the 3-D investment being more second-half weighted; and for the first time, the spending level more or less equal to the planar capacity component.

我們預計 2015 年 NAND WFE 投資將包括平面轉換和 3-D NAND 產能增加，下半年 3-D 投資的權重更大；並且第一次，支出水平或多或少等於平面容量組件。

Our outlook for 2015 NAND supply bit growth remains in the high 30%s.

我們對 2015 年 NAND 供應位增長的展望仍保持在 30% 的高位。

Overall, we're projecting 2015 memory WFE spending in the range of $14 billion to $15 billion.

總體而言，我們預計 2015 年內存 WFE 支出將在 140 億美元到 150 億美元之間。

Now turning to the foundry segments.

現在轉向代工部門。

Investments in 2015 will be focused on FinFET enablement at a number of customers, and some 28-nanometer capacity additions responding to increased demand for these devices.

2015 年的投資將集中在眾多客戶的 FinFET 支持上，以及一些 28 納米產能的增加以響應對這些設備不斷增長的需求。

Our current view of foundry investment is that it will be up slightly from the healthy spending levels we saw in 2014, and again reasonably distributed across customers, with consistency compared to fab-less company stated growth forecasts.

我們目前對代工投資的看法是，它將比我們在 2014 年看到的健康支出水平略有上升，並且再次合理地分佈在客戶之間，與無晶圓廠公司聲明的增長預測相比具有一致性。

We expect logic spending of $6 billion to $7 billion, more or less flat with 2014, reflecting a balance of some slightly positive news on PC volumes, and a sustained commitment to technology conversions with optimized re-use of the installed base by the customer.

我們預計邏輯支出將在 60 億至 70 億美元之間，與 2014 年基本持平，這反映了 PC 銷量方面的一些略微積極的消息，以及對技術轉換的持續承諾以及客戶對已安裝基礎的優化再利用。

Overall, we are modeling 2015 WFE in the range of $34 billion plus or minus $2 billion for the year.

總體而言，我們對 2015 年 WFE 的建模範圍為 340 億美元，正負 20 億美元。

At this point, our visibility for the strong first half is better than the second, as you might imagine.

在這一點上，我們對上半年強勁表現的能見度要好於下半年，正如您可能想像的那樣。

And we believe the scenario of a relatively balanced first half and second half is not unreasonable.

我們認為上半年和下半年相對平衡的情況並非不合理。

Of course we will know more as the year progresses, and update you as appropriate.

當然，隨著時間的推移，我們會了解更多信息，並酌情為您更新。

Now turning to our goals and objectives for the business.

現在轉向我們的業務目標。

Execution and in turn sustaining outperformance remain the guiding principles for Lam in the new year.

在新的一年裡，執行並進而保持優異的表現仍然是林的指導原則。

We manage the Company with a strong focus on the fundamental drivers of profitable growth, value-enhancing products and services, scale, and operating effectiveness.

我們管理公司的重點是盈利增長、增值產品和服務、規模和運營效率的基本驅動因素。

In that regard, our 2015 focus is clear.

在這方面，我們 2015 年的重點很明確。

Differentiate on customer trust and customer experience.

區分客戶信任和客戶體驗。

Execute on the opportunities already won to make sustainable the platform of growth.

抓住已經贏得的機會，打造可持續的增長平台。

Gain market share with a focus on atomic-level control in deposition and etch processes.

通過專注於沉積和蝕刻工藝中的原子級控制來獲得市場份額。

Prioritize employee, organization and business systems development to enable efficient scaling, and deliver profitability required to fund growth.

優先考慮員工、組織和業務系統開發，以實現有效擴展，並提供為增長提供資金所需的盈利能力。

Putting the $2-billion market expansion opportunity we described previously in context Lam's standalone etch and clean product portfolio competed for 19% of WFE.

將我們之前描述的 20 億美元的市場擴張機會放在 Lam 的獨立蝕刻和清潔產品組合中競爭 19% 的 WFE。

Subsequent to the addition of the deposition portfolio, we competed for 25% of WFE at the date of the Lam-Novellus merger closing.

在增加存款組合之後，我們在 Lam-Novellus 合併結束之日競爭了 WFE 25% 的股份。

On the three-year anniversary of announcing that deal, we have a product portfolio that will compete for approximately 28.5% of WFE in 2015, and we believe by 2017 greater than 30%.

在宣布該交易三週年之際，我們的產品組合將在 2015 年爭奪約 28.5% 的 WFE，我們相信到 2017 年將超過 30%。

The significant market expansion combined with accelerated market share gains in applications critical to the inflections demonstrate what we consider very good progress with exciting upside.

顯著的市場擴張加上對拐點至關重要的應用程序的市場份額加速增長，證明了我們認為非常好的進展和令人興奮的上行空間。

Before handing the call to Doug, I would like to express my genuine appreciation for the recognition Lam has received for our hard work and achievement over the last year.

在給 Doug 打電話之前，我想對林在過去一年的辛勤工作和成就所獲得的認可表示衷心的感謝。

Lam was recognized for its leadership and collaboration by multiple stakeholders, including customers, suppliers, investors, industry analysts, and peers.

Lam 的領導力和合作獲得了包括客戶、供應商、投資者、行業分析師和同行在內的多個利益相關者的認可。

This recognition serves as a powerful affirmation and acknowledgment for the 6,900 Lam employees who unite around the objectives of the organization to make all of this possible.

這種認可是對 6,900 名 Lam 員工的有力肯定和認可，他們團結在組織的目標周圍，使這一切成為可能。

On behalf of the entire Lam team, I would like to express our appreciation for the support and opportunity given us in 2014.

我謹代表整個 Lam 團隊，對 2014 年給予我們的支持和機會表示感謝。

We look forward to sharing our performance against our goals and opportunities with you again this year.

我們期待今年再次與您分享我們針對我們的目標和機會的表現。

Doug?

道格？

Thanks Martin.

謝謝馬丁。

Good afternoon everyone, and thank you for joining us today.

大家下午好，感謝您今天加入我們。

As Martin mentioned in his opening comments, calendar 2014 was a year of fundamental outperformance for Lam Research.

正如 Martin 在開場白中提到的，2014 年是 Lam Research 基本面表現優異的一年。

The focus on market share gains and product positioning to take advantage of SAM expansion, combined with strong execution I think was clearly demonstrated in our financial results.

我認為我們的財務業績清楚地表明了對市場份額增長和產品定位的關注以利用 SAM 的擴張，再加上強大的執行力。

We delivered record levels of shipments and revenue.

我們交付了創紀錄水平的出貨量和收入。

We grew revenue at more than double the rate of WFE growth, and we grew operating income at more than double the rate of that revenue growth.

我們的收入增長速度是 WFE 增長率的兩倍多，我們的營業收入增長速度是收入增長率的兩倍多。

We generated $942 million in operating income for the year, which represented nearly 20% of revenue, and we returned approximately $486 million to our shareholders through the initiation of our first dividend and our continued share repurchases.

我們全年創造了 9.42 億美元的營業收入，佔收入的近 20%，我們通過首次派息和持續的股票回購向股東返還了大約 4.86 億美元。

Specific to the December quarter, shipments, revenue, and gross margin were in line with the mid-point of our guidance, and earnings per share were at the high end of our range.

具體到 12 月季度，出貨量、收入和毛利率符合我們指導的中點，每股收益處於我們範圍的高端。

In the December quarter, shipments came in at $1.247 billion, which was up 12% sequentially.

在 12 月季度，出貨量為 12.47 億美元，環比增長 12%。

The combined memory segment made up 53% of total system shipments, and this was up from 44% in the prior quarter.

合併後的內存部分佔系統總出貨量的 53%，高於上一季度的 44%。

DRAM shipments were strong, and contributed 43% of system shipments, which was up from 18% in the prior quarter.

DRAM 出貨量強勁，佔系統出貨量的 43%，高於上一季度的 18%。

DRAM investments continue to be heavily focused at the 20-nanometer node.

DRAM 投資繼續主要集中在 20 納米節點。

NAND represented 10% of shipments, and this was down from 26% during the September quarter.

NAND 占出貨量的 10%，低於 9 月季度的 26%。

The foundry segment remained steady in the December quarter, accounting for 32% of system shipments, versus 45% in the September quarter.

代工部門在 12 月季度保持穩定，佔系統出貨量的 32%，而 9 月季度為 45%。

Foundry shipments were relatively broad-based, with investment for sub-20-nanometer FinFET being complemented by 28-nanometer outlays.

代工出貨量相對廣泛，20 納米以下 FinFET 的投資得到 28 納米支出的補充。

The logic segment grew, and made up 15% of system shipments.

邏輯部分增長，佔系統出貨量的 15%。

This was up from 11% in the prior period.

這比上一時期的 11% 有所上升。

We delivered $1.232 billion in revenue in the December quarter.

我們在 12 月季度實現了 12.32 億美元的收入。

Revenue increased 7% from the prior quarter, marking the sixth consecutive quarter with revenue above the $1-billion mark.

收入比上一季度增長 7%，連續第六個季度收入超過 10 億美元大關。

Gross margin for the period came in at 45.4%, essentially at the mid-point of our guidance, and pretty consistent with our near-term financial model.

該期間的毛利率為 45.4%，基本上處於我們指導的中點，與我們的近期財務模型非常一致。

As I previously mentioned, you should expect some quarter-to-quarter variability in gross margin, due to a number of factors such as product mix and customer concentration.

正如我之前提到的，由於產品組合和客戶集中度等多種因素，您應該預計毛利率會出現季度變化。

I think our financial model remains the best way to think about our ongoing financial performance.

我認為我們的財務模型仍然是思考我們持續財務業績的最佳方式。

Operating expenses increased to $330 million, but they actually decreased as a percent of revenue compared to the September quarter.

運營費用增至 3.3 億美元，但與 9 月季度相比，它們佔收入的百分比實際上有所下降。

SG&A was flattish, while R&D spending for items such as engineering programs and associated materials for our next-generation products increased.

SG&A 持平，而我們下一代產品的工程項目和相關材料等項目的研發支出增加。

We'll continue to make the strategic investments necessary to successfully position the Company for sustainable growth, and we'll adjust our plans based on our ongoing assessment of these opportunities.

我們將繼續進行必要的戰略投資，以使公司成功實現可持續增長，我們將根據對這些機會的持續評估調整我們的計劃。

Operating income in the December quarter was $230 million, with operating margin of 18.7%, which was 30 basis points below the mid-point of our guidance.

12 月季度的營業收入為 2.3 億美元，營業利潤率為 18.7%，比我們指導的中點低 30 個基點。

The tax rate for the quarter came in at 9%, and that compares to 18% last quarter.

本季度的稅率為 9%，而上一季度為 18%。

The December tax rate benefited from the reinstatement of the R&D tax credit in the United States, as well as a more favorable jurisdictional mix of income.

12 月的稅率得益於美國恢復研發稅收抵免，以及更有利的管轄收入組合。

A tax rate in the middle teens would be reasonable for you to include in your forward-looking models.

將青少年的稅率納入您的前瞻性模型是合理的。

Based on a share count of 174 million shares, earnings per share for the quarter were $1.19.

根據 1.74 億股的股票數量，本季度每股收益為 1.19 美元。

This was at the high end of our guidance range, primarily due to that favorable tax rate.

這處於我們指導範圍的高端，主要是由於有利的稅率。

I would like to remind you that the share count includes dilution from all three of our convertible notes at this point.

我想提醒您，此時股票數量包括我們所有三張可轉換票據的稀釋。

The net dilutive impact is 12 million shares on a non-GAAP basis.

按非公認會計原則計算，淨稀釋影響為 1200 萬股。

With the first of our convertible notes maturing in 2016, and given the current favorable interest rate environment, we will be evaluating our alternatives to refinance this note.

隨著我們的第一張可轉換票據於 2016 年到期，並且鑑於當前有利的利率環境，我們將評估我們為該票據再融資的替代方案。

Dilution schedules for the 2016, 2018, and 2041 converts are available on our Investor Relations website for your reference.

2016 年、2018 年和 2041 年轉換的稀釋時間表可在我們的投資者關係網站上獲取，供您參考。

In the December quarter we spent about $46 million, and took delivery of approximately 590,000 shares, at an average price of roughly $77.

在 12 月季度，我們花費了大約 4600 萬美元，並以大約 77 美元的平均價格接收了大約 590,000 股股票。

We also took delivery of 278,000 shares from the accelerated share repurchase that we executed during the September quarter.

我們還從我們在 9 月季度執行的加速股票回購中獲得了 278,000 股股票。

I think we're making pretty good progress on the $850 million share repurchase authorization that we announced in April of 2014, with greater than 40% of it completed during the first eight months.

我認為我們在 2014 年 4 月宣布的 8.5 億美元股票回購授權方面取得了相當大的進展，其中超過 40% 是在前八個月內完成的。

Finally, we returned $0.18 per share in dividend distributions to our shareholders.

最後，我們向股東返還了每股 0.18 美元的股息分配。

Let me switch gears now and move to the balance sheet.

讓我現在換檔，轉到資產負債表上。

We ended the quarter with cash and short-term investments, including our restricted cash, of $3 billion, which was about flat compared to the September quarter.

我們以 30 億美元的現金和短期投資（包括我們的受限現金）結束本季度，與 9 月季度相比基本持平。

Cash generation was partly offset by those capital return programs, as well as capital expenditures.

這些資本回報計劃以及資本支出部分抵消了現金產生。

Cash from operations was $161 million, which was up from $141 million in the September quarter.

運營現金為 1.61 億美元，高於 9 月季度的 1.41 億美元。

With the increase in shipments, accounts receivable and day sales outstanding grew slightly.

隨著出貨量的增加，應收賬款和日銷售額略有增長。

We also saw growth in inventory to support the levels of shipments expected in the next couple of quarters.

我們還看到庫存增長，以支持未來幾個季度的預期出貨量。

I just mentioned that I expect the linearity of the March quarter to be even a little bit more back-end loaded; and therefore expect to see a little bit of lengthening in accounts receivable and DSO.

我剛剛提到，我預計 3 月季度的線性度會在後端加載更多；因此，預計應收賬款和 DSO 會有所延長。

We exited the quarter with deferred revenue of $374 million.

我們以 3.74 億美元的遞延收入退出了本季度。

This excludes $53 million in shipments to customers in Japan, which will revenue in future quarters.

這不包括向日本客戶發貨的 5300 萬美元，這將在未來幾個季度獲得收入。

These Japanese shipments remain as inventory on our balance sheet.

這些日本貨物仍作為我們資產負債表上的庫存。

Company non-cash expenses include $31 million for equity comp, $40 million for amortization, and $30 million for depreciation.

公司的非現金支出包括 3100 萬美元的股權補償、4000 萬美元的攤銷和 3000 萬美元的折舊。

We incurred $61 million for capital expenditures in the quarter.

我們在本季度發生了 6100 萬美元的資本支出。

CapEx was up in the quarter, as we increased our investments in lab and new product development capability.

由於我們增加了對實驗室和新產品開發能力的投資，本季度的資本支出有所上升。

We exited the quarter with approximately 6,900 regular full-time employees.

本季度結束時，我們約有 6,900 名正式的全職員工。

This growth of roughly 300 employees comes from supporting new customer sites, higher manufacturing volumes, as well as increases in new product group development activities.

大約 300 名員工的增長來自於對新客戶站點的支持、更高的製造量以及新產品組開發活動的增加。

Looking ahead, I would like to provide our non-GAAP guidance for the March quarter.

展望未來，我想提供我們對 3 月份季度的非 GAAP 指導。

We're expecting shipments of $1.45 billion, plus or minus $50 million.

我們預計出貨量為 14.5 億美元，上下浮動 5000 萬美元。

We're expecting revenue of $1.37 billion plus or minus $50 million.

我們預計收入為 13.7 億美元，正負 5000 萬美元。

We're expecting gross margin of 44%, plus or minus one percentage point.

我們預計毛利率為 44%，上下浮動 1 個百分點。

We're forecasting operating margins of 19% plus or minus one percentage point.

我們預測營業利潤率為 19% 上下 1 個百分點。

Finally, we forecast earnings per share of $1.30, plus or minus $0.07, based on a share count of approximately 174 million shares.

最後，基於大約 1.74 億股的股票數量，我們預測每股收益為 1.30 美元，上下浮動 0.07 美元。

I'll remind you that as we mentioned during the September quarter call, the March quarter is impacted by both a mix towards more new tools that haven't fully moved down the cost curve yet, as well as a heavier customer concentration.

我會提醒您，正如我們在 9 月季度電話會議中提到的那樣，3 月季度受到更多尚未完全降低成本曲線的新工具的影響，以及更重的客戶集中度。

These items are contributing to the lower gross margin percentage.

這些項目導致較低的毛利率百分比。

I expect this to continue to an extent in the June quarter; but I anticipate improvement in the gross margin percentage in the second half of the year.

我預計這種情況將在六月季度持續到一定程度；但我預計下半年毛利率會有所改善。

The right way to think about our financial performance over the medium and longer term remains our published financial models.

考慮我們中長期財務業績的正確方法仍然是我們公佈的財務模型。

That concludes my prepared remarks.

我準備好的發言到此結束。

Operator, please open up the call for questions.

接線員，請打開電話提問。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

C.J. Muse, Evercore ISI.

C.J. Muse，Evercore ISI。

Good afternoon, thank you for taking my question.

下午好，謝謝你接受我的問題。

First question, was hoping to get some clarity from you on directionality of shipments, revs going into Q2 in the second half.

第一個問題，希望能從你那裡得到一些關於出貨方向的澄清，下半年進入第二季度的轉速。

Last quarter you talked about an uplift a quarter out.

上個季度你談到了一個季度的提升。

Curious if you could provide some color on that front, and what the key moving parts are, and assumptions?

好奇你是否可以在這方面提供一些顏色，關鍵的移動部件是什麼，以及假設？

I guess the answer to that question is once bitten, twice shy.

我想這個問題的答案是一次被咬，兩次害羞。

(laughter) I think one reason I did share a perspective today, C.J., around backlog is I think it should tell you something about the trajectory of the Company, and the industry-spending outlook that we have; but I'm going to avoid a level of specificity at this point in time for the June quarter.

（笑聲）我認為我今天確實分享了一個關於積壓問題的觀點的原因之一，C.J.，我認為它應該告訴你公司的發展軌跡，以及我們擁有的行業支出前景；但我要避免在這個時間點對六月季度進行一定程度的具體化。

I do think, and I think I mentioned this in my prepared comments, that the outlook for the first half is reasonably clear to us, and pretty strong.

我確實認為，而且我認為我在準備好的評論中提到了這一點，上半年的前景對我們來說相當清晰，而且相當強勁。

There's still a lot of months left in the year for us to get really specific about the second half.

今年還有很多個月的時間讓我們真正了解下半年的情況。

But I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that we haven't got a shot at reasonable balance this year.

但我不認為假設我們今年沒有達到合理的平衡是不合理的。

Okay.

好的。

I guess as a quick follow-up.

我想作為一個快速跟進。

Doug, can you talk a little bit about the up-lift in OpEx?

道格，你能談談運營支出的提升嗎？

It came in a little bit higher in the December quarter, and then relative to the guide, roughly $8 million to $10 million higher, as well.

它在 12 月季度略高，然後相對於指南，也高出大約 800 萬至 1000 萬美元。

Just curious, are these one-off programs associated with specific customers, or is this a slightly new trend line that we should be thinking about going forward?

只是好奇，這些一次性程序是否與特定客戶相關，或者這是我們應該考慮向前發展的一個稍微新的趨勢線？

The right way to think about our levels of spending are what we perceive to be our sustainable level of profitability.

考慮我們的支出水平的正確方法是我們認為是我們可持續的盈利水平。

Yes, we were a little bit below that operating income, but I don't think 30 basis point is too much.

是的，我們的營業收入略低於該營業收入，但我認為 30 個基點並不過分。

We are ramping up some of our R&D activity, as I indicated in my prepared remarks, which is part of what you're seeing go on in the March quarter.

正如我在準備好的講話中指出的那樣，我們正在加強我們的一些研發活動，這是您在 3 月季度所看到的一部分。

But the right way to think about how we intend to spend money will be to be roughly consistent with those financial models that we put out.

但思考我們打算如何花錢的正確方法是與我們推出的那些財務模型大致一致。

Right now we do have a little bit of the gross margin headwind that I described, but the spending level is pretty -- is still pretty well within those models.

現在我們確實有一些我描述的毛利率逆風，但支出水平相當不錯——在這些模型中仍然相當不錯。

I think as, just to add, I think Doug's prepared comments that describes the addition of head count also need to be put in context.

我認為，作為補充，我認為 Doug 準備好的描述增加人數的評論也需要放在上下文中。

I don't spend a huge amount of time talking about this, because I think across the industry it's not a very easily comparable benchmark.

我不會花大量時間談論這個，因為我認為在整個行業中這不是一個非常容易比較的基準。

But for the Company, a revenue per employee trajectory is not an unreasonable reference for you to be thinking about.

但對於公司而言，每位員工的收入軌跡並不是您要考慮的不合理參考。

In fact, through the December quarter and the March guidance that we've given today, the revenue per employee is actually getting better and not worse.

事實上，通過我們今天給出的 12 月季度和 3 月的指導，每位員工的收入實際上正在變得更好，而不是更糟。

I think the context for spending more money is the growth of the Company is pretty significant.

我認為花更多錢的背景是公司的增長非常重要。

Our focus as a leadership team is making sure we are effective doing that before we start worrying too much about efficiency, which doesn't mean we don't try to do both, but the customer trust exposure for getting a ramp wrong is not a risk we are biased to take.

作為領導團隊，我們的重點是確保我們在開始過多擔心效率之前有效地做到這一點，這並不意味著我們不會嘗試兩者都做，但是客戶對坡道錯誤的信任風險並不是我們傾向於承擔的風險。

We're biased to get this effective so that we can really deliver sustainability for the story that we're telling here today.

我們偏向於實現這一目標，以便我們能夠真正為我們今天在這裡講述的故事提供可持續性。

Very helpful.

非常有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Thanks, C.J.

謝謝，C.J.

Jim Covello, Goldman Sachs.

吉姆·科維羅，高盛。

Great.

偉大的。

Good afternoon, guys.

下午好，伙計們。

Thanks so much for taking the question.

非常感謝您提出這個問題。

Congratulations on the good results.

祝賀取得好成績。

Obviously you guys don't talk about orders on the call, but the shipments going up quite a bit would suggest order activity overall is healthy over the last couple of quarters.

顯然，你們不會在電話會議上談論訂單，但出貨量的大幅增長表明過去幾個季度的訂單活動總體上是健康的。

Can you talk about any pushes or pulls in order activity overall?

你能談談整體訂單活動的任何推動或拉動嗎？

Obviously your guidance for shipments is a little bit stronger.

顯然，您對發貨的指導要強一些。

Is there any movement within that one way or the other in the various sub-segments?

在不同的細分市場中，這一種或另一種方式是否有任何變動？

Thanks, Jim, for your comments there at the beginning.

謝謝，吉姆，你在開始時的評論。

I don't think there's anything new for us to communicate.

我不認為我們有什麼新的交流方式。

I think the industry generally saw a little bit of a push on some foundry investments, saw a little bit of a pull on some DRAM investments, and the rest of the industry more or less played out in the way we'd expected.

我認為該行業普遍對一些代工投資有所推動，對一些 DRAM 投資有所拉動，而該行業的其他部分或多或少地以我們預期的方式發揮作用。

I do think it's a little bit more concentrated a shipment number for us from a customer perspective than even we were anticipating in the October time frame, relative to March of 2015.

我確實認為，從客戶的角度來看，與 2015 年 3 月相比，我們在 10 月份的時間範圍內預期的發貨數量更加集中。

But I think those messages are well communicated right now by the rest of the industry.

但我認為這些信息現在已經被業內其他人很好地傳達了。

That's very helpful.

這很有幫助。

I guess it's always hard to distill the industry down to a couple of things alone that we should be looking for, but is it fair to say that memory margins are probably going to dictate if we do get that balanced half-on-half?

我想總是很難將行業提煉成我們應該尋找的幾件事，但可以公平地說，內存利潤率可能會決定我們是否確實獲得了平衡的一半嗎？

If memory margins stay high, we would expect continued investment in that segment; but if there was any deterioration there, we would run the risk that the back half is a little softer.

如果內存利潤率保持高位，我們預計該領域將繼續投資；但如果那裡有任何惡化，我們就會冒著後半部分軟一些的風險。

Is that one key thing that you would be looking at?

這是你要關注的一件關鍵事情嗎？

Yes, I think sustained discipline is something we continue to see.

是的，我認為持續的紀律是我們繼續看到的。

It's something we continue to hear from the customers, and it's something we continue to expect.

這是我們不斷從客戶那裡聽到的，也是我們繼續期待的。

But I think history tells us if this gets ahead of itself in a significant way then there's always at a minimum some kind of pause.

但我認為歷史告訴我們，如果這在很大程度上超越了自身，那麼至少總會有某種停頓。

We don't expect that.

我們不希望這樣。

We expect continued discipline in every segment of the industry, and we come into the year pretty tight almost everywhere.

我們預計該行業的每個部門都會繼續遵守紀律，而且我們幾乎在所有地方都非常緊張。

As best I can tell, the inventory levels and the industry commentary from our customers on inventory supports continued discipline, though I think at some level it's a byproduct of a consolidated industry.

據我所知，庫存水平和我們客戶對庫存的行業評論支持持續的紀律，儘管我認為在某種程度上它是整合行業的副產品。

Very helpful.

非常有幫助。

Thanks a lot, and good luck.

非常感謝，祝你好運。

Thanks, Jim.

謝謝，吉姆。

At this time, we'll take a question from Patrick Ho, Stifel Nicholas.

這次，我們將回答 Patrick Ho、Stifel Nicholas 的問題。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Martin, first in terms of overall memory spending in the year, do you see a bias first half versus second half in terms of DRAM maybe potentially being more first-half weighted, while you see NAND flash more second-half weighted, or do you see a balanced spending across both segments throughout the year?

Martin，首先就今年的整體內存支出而言，您是否看到上半年與下半年的偏差，DRAM 可能會在上半年更受重視，而您認為 NAND 閃存在下半年更受重視，或者您認為看到全年這兩個部分的支出平衡了嗎？

I have two answers to your question.

對於你的問題，我有兩個答案。

One of them is from the bottoms-up forecasting and planning, which is always a little bit limited when you start focusing on something six months from now or nine months from now.

其中之一是自下而上的預測和計劃，當你開始關註六個月後或九個月後的事情時，它總是有點有限。

But our bottoms-up analytics would tend to support what you just described, which is a slightly stronger first half for DRAM and a slightly stronger second half for NAND.

但我們自下而上的分析傾向於支持您剛才描述的內容，即 DRAM 上半年略強，而 NAND 下半年略強。

But frankly, when all is said and done here, I think we're likely to see a little bit of strengthening in the second half.

但坦率地說，當一切都在這裡說完之後，我認為我們可能會在下半年看到一點點加強。

But time will tell.

但時間會證明一切。

That may play out, it may not play out.

這可能會結束，也可能不會結束。

But the basic premise that you just described -- I guess the only other thing I'd supplement with is perhaps compared to the commentary from the Company three months ago where we articulated we expected planar spending in NAND flash to exceed 3-D, we're making the statement today that as best we can tell, it looks more likely to be equal and the planar investment in NAND Flash biased to first half, and the 3-D investment in NAND Flash is biased to the second half.

但是你剛才描述的基本前提——我想我唯一要補充的另一件事可能是與公司三個月前的評論相比，我們明確表示我們預計 NAND 閃存的平面支出將超過 3-D，我們'今天發表聲明，據我們所知，它看起來更有可能是平等的，對 NAND 閃存的平面投資偏向於上半年，而對 NAND 閃存的 3-D 投資則偏向於下半年。

Great, that is really helpful.

太好了，這真的很有幫助。

My follow-up question, more for you Doug, in terms of OpEx levels and how we look at the longer-term business model.

關於運營支出水平以及我們如何看待長期商業模式，我的後續問題更適合 Doug。

One of the areas you talked about at your Analyst Day was building out your installed base business and the services front.

您在分析師日討論的領域之一是建立您的已安裝基礎業務和服務前沿。

With IOT gaining momentum, and a lot more verbiage out there, how do you see your growth in terms of that business segment, and in terms of the OpEx that may be needed to support the growth over the next few years?

隨著物聯網的發展勢頭越來越猛，並且出現了更多的措辭，您如何看待您在該業務領域的增長，以及未來幾年支持增長可能需要的運營支出？

Yes, you may remember Patrick, we talked about, or I tried to talk about our objective with the installed base business is to grow it faster than the new equipment market, right?

是的，你可能還記得帕特里克，我們談到過，或者我試圖談論我們對已安裝基礎業務的目標是讓它比新設備市場增長得更快，對吧？

There was a graph where I showed that.

有一個圖表，我展示了這一點。

Consistent with that, we are growing a little bit of spending in that business group this year over and above what was there last year, to go try and take advantage of those opportunities.

與此一致，我們今年在該業務部門的支出超過了去年的水平，以嘗試利用這些機會。

That is part of the investments when I talk about opportunities that are out there.

當我談到存在的機會時，這是投資的一部分。

We do believe we see opportunities to generate returns, and the spending is up there a little bit.

我們確實相信我們看到了產生回報的機會，並且支出有所增加。

Great, thank you.

太好了謝謝。

Thanks, Patrick.

謝謝，帕特里克。

Timothy Arcuri, Cowen and Company

Timothy Arcuri, Cowen and Company

Hi guys, thanks.

大家好，謝謝。

I jumped on here a little bit late.

我跳到這裡有點晚了。

My first question is around the inventory.

我的第一個問題是關於庫存的。

Doug, if I just look at days, days are up to 125.

道格，如果我只看天數，天數最多為 125 天。

I'm wondering if that portends some view on June.

我想知道這是否預示著六月的一些觀點。

I know you don't want to say too much about June, but I'm wondering if that's portends some view that maybe June shipments are going to be up?

我知道你不想對 6 月份說太多，但我想知道這是否預示著一些觀點，即 6 月份的出貨量可能會增加？

I'm not going to give you what June looks like.

我不會給你六月的樣子。

I did describe purposefully in my prepared remarks that we expect shipments to be strong in the next couple of quarters, without giving you a direction from March to June.

我在準備好的評論中確實有目的地描述了我們預計未來幾個季度的出貨量將強勁，但沒有給你從 3 月到 6 月的方向。

We've built inventory in anticipation of that.

我們已經為此建立了庫存。

You should expect that those inventory levels come down in the back half of the year, likely.

您應該預計這些庫存水平可能會在今年下半年下降。

But expect us to update that on a quarter-by-quarter basis, Tim.

但預計我們會按季度更新，蒂姆。

Okay, then I just had two more quick ones.

好的，然後我又快了兩個。

First of all Doug, can you give us some sense of what you think the mix will be for shipments in March?

首先，Doug，您能否告訴我們您認為 3 月份出貨的組合是什麼？

I wanted to know also if all things equal -- so let's just say shipments were flat in June.

我還想知道所有條件是否相同——所以我們假設 6 月份的出貨量持平。

I just wanted to try to isolate the customer concentration issue that's bringing down margins in June.

我只是想嘗試找出導致 6 月份利潤率下降的客戶集中度問題。

Would margins come right back up to the model -- sorry, in March.

利潤率是否會立即恢復到該模型 - 抱歉，在 3 月份。

Would the margins come right back up to the model in June, absent this customer concentration issue?

如果沒有這個客戶集中度問題，利潤率會在 6 月份回到模型嗎？

Thanks.

謝謝。

I think directionally in the March quarter memory shipments are going to be up as a percent.

我認為在 3 月季度內存出貨量將按百分比增長。

Logic is probably flattish, maybe down a little bit, and I think foundry will be down a little bit, when you put all that together.

邏輯可能很平淡，可能會下降一點，當你把所有這些放在一起時，我認為代工廠會下降一點。

By the way, those are system shipments.

順便說一句，這些是系統出貨量。

I kind of indicated I think the customer concentration piece continues into the June quarter a little bit.

我有點表示我認為客戶集中度會持續到六月季度。

Then my expectation is in the back half of the year the gross margins moving back up from where they are.

然後我的預期是在今年下半年毛利率從原來的水平回升。

It's hard to call.

很難打電話。

Things move around, Tim, as you know in this business; but as we sit here today I think we are going to continue to see some concentration in June -- might be a little bit less than it is in March, but this stuff moves around quite a bit.

蒂姆，事情在發生變化，正如你在這個行業中所知道的那樣；但是當我們今天坐在這裡時，我認為我們將在 6 月繼續看到一些集中度——可能會比 3 月少一點，但這些東西會移動很多。

Awesome.

驚人的。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

Thanks, Tim.

謝謝，蒂姆。

Steven Chin, UBS.

瑞銀的史蒂文·欽。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Hi Martin and Doug.

嗨，馬丁和道格。

Nice results last year, too.

去年的成績也不錯。

Thanks, Steven.

謝謝，史蒂文。

I had a follow-up question on the 3-D NAND spend in the second half of the year.

我有一個關於下半年 3-D NAND 支出的後續問題。

Just curious if you think the spend on 3-D NAND in the second half will be mostly driven by one customer, or you think it's equally spread across the customer base?

只是好奇你是否認為下半年在 3-D NAND 上的支出將主要由一位客戶推動，或者你認為它同樣分佈在整個客戶群中？

It's been a long time since we've seen any meaningful 3-D shipments to I guess a starting customer, so I'm curious on the diversity you are looking at?

我們已經很長時間沒有看到任何有意義的 3-D 出貨給我猜一個初始客戶，所以我很好奇你正在尋找的多樣性？

I would say there's clearly an expectation that one of the customers well-publicized is in the lead from an investment timing perspective.

我要說的是，從投資時機的角度來看，顯然期望其中一位廣為人知的客戶處於領先地位。

But we expect this year to have a diverse spending, and anticipate all four NAND flash memory companies participating in a meaningful way.

但我們預計今年會有多樣化的支出，並預計所有四家 NAND 閃存公司都會以有意義的方式參與其中。

I expect the spending be more distributed in 2015 than it was in 2014.

我預計 2015 年的支出將比 2014 年更加分散。

Just to kind of give you a little bit of a number on capacity we expect to be shipped in, I think in the last call I mentioned we were thinking that we ended the calendar 2014 year with approximately 60,000 wafer starts, 65,000 wafer starts, of a shipped in capacity in 3-D NAND.

只是為了給你一點關於我們預計出貨的產能的數字，我想在我上次提到的電話會議中，我們認為我們在 2014 年結束時大約有 60,000 個晶圓啟動，65,000 個晶圓啟動，以 3-D NAND 的容量出貨。

As best we can tell that more or less played out as anticipated.

盡我們所能，我們可以說或多或少地如預期的那樣發揮了作用。

We think by the end of 2015 that 130,000 wafer starts plus or 10,000 is not bad reference point to have.

我們認為到 2015 年底 130,000 片晶圓開工加或 10,000 片是不錯的參考點。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks for sharing those numbers.

感謝您分享這些數字。

It sounds like if Lam were to outgrow WFE again this year, it sounds like if 3-D NAND spend in the industry is strong in the second half of the year that's probably one of the main ways that you outgrow the industry again this year.

聽起來如果 Lam 今年再次超越 WFE，聽起來如果該行業的 3-D NAND 支出在下半年強勁，這可能是今年您再次超越該行業的主要方式之一。

It seems like that's one of the messages?

這似乎是其中的一條消息？

From an inflection point of view, the 3-D NAND inflection is not insignificant.

從拐點的角度來看，3-D NAND 拐點並非微不足道。

As we've talked about before and from a timing point of view, it plays a pretty meaningful role in the year-over-year comparison.

正如我們之前討論過的，從時間的角度來看，它在同比比較中起著非常重要的作用。

But that's also true by the way for the multi-patterning transition, as well.

但順便說一下，多模式轉換也是如此。

I would say the only inflection that doesn't really get traction of substance to have a material impact on the outperforming characteristics of the Company is advanced packaging -- which isn't to say there isn't a positive story.

我想說，唯一沒有真正吸引實質內容對公司的出色表現產生實質性影響的拐點是先進封裝——這並不是說沒有積極的故事。

I actually think that the advanced packaging revenues of the Company have a shot at doubling year over year.

實際上，我認為公司的先進封裝收入有望實現同比翻番。

But the scale of that compared to multi-patterning and the 3D NAND transition is obviously very different, and meaningfully lower.

但與多模式和 3D NAND 過渡相比，其規模顯然非常不同，而且明顯更低。

Yes, I think outperformance is a commentary on the 3-D NAND, and FinFET and multi-patterning transitions in DRAM and logic both.

是的，我認為表現出色是對 3-D NAND、FinFET 以及 DRAM 和邏輯中的多模式轉換的評論。

It is a commentary on market-share momentum in the Company, which we are I think accelerating.

這是對公司市場份額勢頭的評論，我認為我們正在加速。

It doesn't feel to me like it's slowing or stagnating.

在我看來，它並沒有放緩或停滯不前。

It feels to me like the market-share momentum is actually accelerating, which is something we'll work very hard to sustain.

在我看來，市場份額的勢頭實際上正在加速，這是我們將非常努力地維持下去的事情。

Thanks, Martin.

謝謝，馬丁。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Weston Twigg, Pacific securities.

Weston Twigg，太平洋證券。

Hi, I wanted to follow up on that last comment related to DRAM multi-patterning as being one of the drivers.

嗨，我想跟進關於 DRAM 多模式作為驅動程序之一的最後一條評論。

Wondering as the industry works through the 20-nanometer conversions and add the additional etch tools for multi-patterning, is there some risk to etch intensity for DRAM in the following years as they -- maybe the incremental etch opportunity slows down, given that they would have more etch tools for re-use?

想知道隨著行業通過 20 納米轉換並為多圖案添加額外的蝕刻工具，在接下來的幾年中，DRAM 的蝕刻強度是否存在一些風險——也許增量蝕刻機會會放緩，因為它們會有更多的蝕刻工具可以重複使用嗎？

I think the reality is that even after the investment that we've described in calendar 2015, and our best estimate is approximately 400 -- maybe 400 to 440, or 410 to 430 hard to be specific at this point is the kind of thousand wafer start conversion approximately of the industry.

我認為現實情況是，即使在我們在 2015 年日曆中描述的投資之後，我們的最佳估計約為 400 - 可能是 400 到 440，或 410 到 430 在這一點上很難具體說明是千晶片的那種開始轉換大約的行業。

There is much more than that at the end of calendar 2015 still in need of conversion to the 20-nanometer technology node.

到 2015 年底，還有很多事情需要轉換到 20 納米技術節點。

To the extent there's a risk in the form that you're describing it, I don't think it shows up in calendar 2016.

就您所描述的形式存在風險而言，我認為它不會出現在 2016 年日曆中。

It has a shot at showing up in calendar 2017, but a lot is going to change between now and 2017 relative to the road map of DRAM.

它有機會出現在 2017 年日曆中，但相對於 DRAM 的路線圖，從現在到 2017 年之間會有很多變化。

It's not something that's a particularly prominent risk factor for us in the scheme of things.

在事物的計劃中，這不是我們特別突出的風險因素。

Okay.

好的。

In other words, the same drivers that you see today, the 3-D NAND, FinFET, the DRAM multi-patterning, you expect those to be pretty consistently strong over the next two years?

換句話說，與您今天看到的相同驅動因素，3-D NAND、FinFET、DRAM 多模式，您預計這些驅動因素在未來兩年內會持續保持強勁嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I think the context to one of the earlier questions is the discipline and the balance, the supply and demand balance.

我認為早期問題之一的背景是紀律和平衡，供需平衡。

We've had a number of years of demonstrated performance on that, so I think we're getting to the point where trusting that as a legitimate assumption is much more valid.

我們已經有多年的表現證明了這一點，所以我認為我們已經到了相信這是一個合理的假設更加有效的地步。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Sundeep Bajikar, Jefferies.

Sundeep Bajikar，傑富瑞。

Hi, guys.

嗨，大家好。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

First, just following up your comments on heavier mix of new tools expected in the first half.

首先，只是跟進您對上半年預期的更多新工具組合的評論。

Can you say which end market these new tools are targeting?

您能說出這些新工具針對的是哪個終端市場嗎？

Martin referred to 20 new tool introductions last year.

Martin 去年提到了 20 種新工具介紹。

It's that, so it's obviously broad-based.

就是這樣，所以它顯然是廣泛的。

If I had to give you a little bit of color, it's probably more biased towards our deposition product group than it is the etch product group in terms of new tools that are coming out, given some of these inflections that are happening.

如果我不得不給你一點顏色，考慮到正在發生的一些變化，就即將推出的新工具而言，它可能更偏向於我們的沉積產品組，而不是蝕刻產品組。

There's a little bit more going on there.

那裡還有一些事情要做。

Okay, great.

好，太棒了。

Then a quick follow-up on foundry.

然後快速跟進鑄造。

Are you continuing to see activity at the 14-nanometer node?

您是否繼續看到 14 納米節點的活動？

How much 14-nanometer capacity do you expect to see exiting the year?

您預計今年將有多少 14 納米產能？

The answer to the first part of that is yes.

第一部分的答案是肯定的。

I said before, we're not distinguishing the 14, 16 capacity additions from the 20, because there is so much of an overlap of the equipment portfolio.

我之前說過，我們沒有將 14 和 16 的產能增加與 20 區區分開來，因為設備組合有很多重疊。

90% to 95% of the equipment is going to track from the last planar node to the first FinFET node anyway.

無論如何，90% 到 95% 的設備將從最後一個平面節點跟踪到第一個 FinFET 節點。

Our assumption is that we exit 2015 with somewhere between 200,000 and 220,000 wafer starts of combined capacity 20, 16, and 14.

我們的假設是，我們在 2015 年退出 200,000 到 220,000 片晶圓，總產能為 20、16 和 14 之間。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

Thanks Sundeep.

謝謝桑迪普。

Krish Sankar, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

美銀美林的 Krish Sankar。

Hi, thanks for taking my question.

您好，感謝您提出我的問題。

Thanks for the color on the SAM and share gains that you guys highlighted for last year.

感謝 SAM 上的顏色，並分享你們去年強調的收益。

Two quick questions.

兩個快速的問題。

First one, Martin in the past you've spoken about a third of WFE spending this year might be for tech inflections.

第一個，馬丁過去你說過今年 WFE 支出的三分之一可能用於技術轉折。

Curious if that is still the view, or do you think that would change given the challenges people are having at FinFET and 3-D NAND?

好奇這是否仍然是這種觀點，或者您認為鑑於人們在 FinFET 和 3-D NAND 方面面臨的挑戰，這種觀點會改變嗎？

Also, I had a follow-up after that.

另外，在那之後我進行了跟進。

No, I don't think there's a fundamental challenge.

不，我認為沒有根本性的挑戰。

Instead of maybe 33, maybe we end up saying it's 31 or something like that, or 32 as a byproduct of the 3-D NAND assumption set delaying from 2014 to 2015 a little.

也許我們最終會說它不是 33，而是說它是 31 或類似的東西，或者 32 作為 3-D NAND 假設從 2014 年延遲到 2015 年的副產品。

But the fundamental message, I think, is exactly the same today as it was before; and the end game to the extent we're describing one in calendar 2017, the 50% spending proportion on inflections is still the assumption we are running with.

但我認為，今天的基本信息與以前完全相同。以及我們在 2017 年日曆中描述的最終遊戲，50% 的支出比例仍然是我們正在運行的假設。

Got it.

知道了。

That's very helpful.

這很有幫助。

Then a quick question for Doug.

然後是道格的一個快速問題。

What is your mix of onshore versus offshore cash?

您的在岸現金與離岸現金的組合是什麼？

What do you think is the right moment of cash to run the business?

您認為什麼時候才是經營業務的最佳時機？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Krish, it's somewhere between 20% and 25% onshore as we sit here today, and obviously then it's 75% or 80% offshore.

Krish，當我們今天坐在這裡時，它在 20% 到 25% 之間，很明顯，它是 75% 或 80% 離岸。

As always, we're thinking through how to fund that $1-billion capital return program.

與往常一樣，我們正在考慮如何為這個 10 億美元的資本回報計劃提供資金。

I've previously said we can fund that with the cash that we have.

我之前說過我們可以用我們擁有的現金來資助它。

That program I think is a pretty significant program in terms of returning cash.

我認為該計劃在返還現金方面是一個非常重要的計劃。

Once we get through the current authorization, you'll hear us talking about what are our plans going forward.

一旦我們通過了當前的授權，您就會聽到我們談論我們未來的計劃。

Pretty comfortable with the level of cash.

對現金水平相當滿意。

It's been pretty flat in gross terms over the last couple of quarters, and that's been because we've been returning cash to shareholders.

在過去的幾個季度裡，它的總額相當平穩，那是因為我們一直在向股東返還現金。

Got it.

知道了。

Thank you, guys.

感謝你們。

Thanks Krish.

謝謝克里希。

Mark Heller, CLSA Equity Research.

里昂證券證券研究部的馬克·海勒。

Thank you for taking my question.

謝謝你接受我的問題。

Congratulations on the strong results.

祝賀你取得了不錯的成績。

Martin, I was wondering if you could update us on the DRAM -- the outlook for the DRAM sector in terms of new capacity additions this year?

Martin，我想知道您能否向我們介紹 DRAM 的最新情況——DRAM 行業今年新增產能的前景？

I think previously you were talking about maybe 50,000 to 60,000 starts.

我想以前你說的可能是 50,000 到 60,000 次啟動。

I'm wondering if that's still the case for this year?

我想知道今年是否仍然如此？

Yes, I think maybe we would probably say more 60,000 than 50,000.

是的，我想我們可能會說 60,000 多於 50,000。

But I think as a number of customers have said most recently as well, that addition frankly does nothing more than keep the available output kind of constant.

但我認為正如許多客戶最近所說的那樣，坦率地說，添加只是保持可用輸出類型不變。

Because in the technology transitions from the 3X range to the mid-20s and to 20, there's a loss per square foot of clean room in terms of output.

因為在技術從 3X 範圍過渡到 20 年代中期和 20 倍的過程中，每平方英尺潔淨室的產量會有所損失。

The assumption that we're making is that the investment of 60,000 wafer starts or so is -- and maybe it's a little higher, maybe it's 60,000, 70,000, that range.

我們所做的假設是 60,000 片晶圓開始的投資是 - 可能會更高一點，可能是 60,000、70,000 片，這個範圍。

But it's not 100,000 wafer starts of addition, or anything like that.

但這不是添加 100,000 個晶圓開始，或類似的東西。

It essentially keeps the output potential constant year over year.

它基本上使產出潛力逐年保持不變。

Got it.

知道了。

Then it looks like the shipments to Korea picked up quite a bit during the quarter.

然後看起來本季度對韓國的出貨量增加了很多。

I'm just wondering if that's more weighted to foundry or memory spending?

我只是想知道這是否更重視代工廠或內存支出？

Thanks.

謝謝。

In the interest of not being specific to any one customer, we're going to elect not to answer that question directly, please.

為了不針對任何一位客戶，我們將選擇不直接回答該問題。

Thanks, Martin.

謝謝，馬丁。

You can just listen to what I said in my prepared remarks and get some level of indication, probably.

您可以只聽我在準備好的評論中所說的話，並可能獲得某種程度的指示。

Sidney Ho, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的 Sidney Ho。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

A question on the foundry.

關於鑄造的問題。

I know you talk about visibility in the first half is good.

我知道你說上半年能見度很好。

How's your visibility in the second half?

你下半年的知名度如何？

If a customer decides to go with FinFET this fall, do you think there's enough capacity to handle that right now, or do you think more equipment needs to be ordered from here?

如果客戶決定在今年秋天使用 FinFET，您認為現在是否有足夠的能力來處理這個問題，或者您是否認為需要從這裡訂購更多設備？

Well, that's a little hard to answer without getting into a lot of details in terms of a demand statement for those devices.

好吧，如果不對這些設備的需求聲明進行詳細說明，這有點難以回答。

I guess the headline for us is we trust the substance of the communication from the customer.

我想我們的標題是我們相信客戶溝通的實質。

I think everybody's saying they have an interest in keeping this thing in balance.

我想每個人都說他們有興趣保持這件事的平衡。

What we're communicating is our best understanding of their investment plans, which as I've said is in the 200,000 to 220,000 wafer starts installed capacity by the end of this calendar year for 20, 16, and 14 combined.

我們所傳達的是我們對他們的投資計劃的最佳理解，正如我所說，到本日曆年底將有 200,000 到 220,000 片晶圓的開工裝機容量為 20、16 和 14 日加起來。

If the customer is underestimating the demand for that device, then I think there will need to be more investment.

如果客戶低估了對該設備的需求，那麼我認為需要更多的投資。

It doesn't feel to me like there's risk that they're over-investing it.

我不覺得他們有過度投資的風險。

I think it's a pretty reasonable commentary on outlook, as best we can tell.

據我們所知，我認為這是對前景的相當合理的評論。

Okay.

好的。

A follow-up, maybe this one is for Doug.

後續，也許這個是給 Doug 的。

You talked about the customer concentration in Q1.

您談到了第一季度的客戶集中度。

Does it happen every Q1, or it just happened and the stars are aligned this quarter?

是每個第一季度都會發生，還是剛剛發生並且本季度的星星對齊？

Or is it a byproduct of a more concentrated customer base?

或者它是更集中的客戶群的副產品？

I don't know that there is a seasonal profile to it, per se, Sidney.

我不知道它本身是否有季節性特徵，Sidney。

This is more concentrated than I can recall seeing it in the two years I've been with the Company.

這比我在公司工作的兩年中所看到的更加集中。

I think this is over and above where you would normally expect it to be.

我認為這超出了您通常期望的範圍。

Okay, great.

好，太棒了。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Thanks Sidney.

謝謝西德尼。

Farhan Ahmad, Credit Suisse.

法爾漢·艾哈邁德，瑞士信貸。

Thanks for letting me ask a question, and congrats on a great quarter.

感謝您讓我提出問題，並祝賀一個偉大的季度。

Martin, one question on the 2015 WFE.

Martin，關於 2015 WFE 的一個問題。

At the last quarter earnings call you had indicated WFE to be up 5% to 10%.

在上一季度財報電話會議上，您曾表示 WFE 將上漲 5% 至 10%。

Now it seems you are indicating it up flat to up 13%.

現在看來，您將其表示為持平至 13%。

Just wanted to understand why you are broadening the range?

只是想了解您為什麼要擴大範圍？

What are some of the factors that have increased the variability in 2015?

哪些因素增加了 2015 年的可變性？

I don't know that I would read too much into it.

我不知道我會讀太多。

I think our headline is the outlook that we've described in percentages three months ago is not so far away from the outlook we're describing with dollars.

我認為我們的標題是我們三個月前以百分比描述的前景與我們用美元描述的前景相差不遠。

It's pretty customary for the Company to start the year with a plus or minus $2 billion, and about the middle of the year narrow that range to plus or minus $1 billion.

公司通常以正負 20 億美元開始新的一年，大約在年中將這一範圍縮小到正負 10 億美元。

We've done our best to translate the outlook of three months ago into the customary form of guidance.

我們已盡最大努力將三個月前的展望轉化為慣用的指導形式。

I think what has changed is from the public disclosure of the customers, some foundry spending expansion, DRAM more or less where it was, and commentary from the microprocessor space of the importance of re-use in their overall strategies.

我認為變化來自客戶的公開披露、一些代工支出的擴張、DRAM 或多或少的現狀，以及微處理器領域對重用在其整體戰略中的重要性的評論。

But the $34 billion plus or minus $2 billion is a commentary on -- we're at the beginning of the year and lots can change.

但 340 億美元正負 20 億美元是對我們的評論——我們正處於年初，很多事情都可能發生變化。

We're doing our best to tell you what we think the range is.

我們正在盡最大努力告訴您我們認為的範圍是多少。

Got it, thank you.

收到了。謝謝。

One question on NAND.

關於NAND的一個問題。

You mentioned the spending on the planar versus 3-D should be about balanced this year.

您提到今年平面與 3-D 的支出應該大致平衡。

I wanted to ask about the planar spending this year.

我想問一下今年的平面支出。

How much of the capacity do you think will go through a planar node transition this year?

您認為今年有多少產能會經歷平面節點過渡？

Again, I've come to appreciate that level of specificity gets a little bit close to the sensitive disclosure of the customers, given there are only so many.

再一次，我開始意識到，鑑於只有這麼多，特異性水平有點接近客戶的敏感披露。

If you may allow me, I'm going to defer that question to our customers.

如果您允許，我將把這個問題交給我們的客戶。

Got it.

知道了。

Thank you, that's all I have.

謝謝，我只有這些了。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Edwin Mok, Needham and Company.

Edwin Mok，Needham and Company。

Hi, thanks for taking my question, and congrats for a great quarter.

嗨，感謝您提出我的問題，並祝賀您度過了一個美好的季度。

First question on the SAM expansion commentary.

關於 SAM 擴展評論的第一個問題。

Martin, you had that you believe your SAM will expand about 30% of WFE by 2018?

馬丁，您是否相信您的 SAM 到 2018 年將擴大約 30% 的 WFE？

I guess two-part question.

我猜是兩部分的問題。

First is how much are you baking in greenfield 3-D NAND investment versus converting existing planar to 3-D?

首先是與將現有平面轉換為 3D 相比，您在綠地 3-D NAND 投資中的投入是多少？

The second part of that is, does that factor into some kind of adoption of EUV?

第二部分是，這是否會影響 EUV 的某種採用？

Well, first of all we said 2017 not 2018.

好吧，首先我們說的是 2017 年而不是 2018 年。

Relative to the last part of your question, EUV we don't believe has any relevance of substance in the 2017 time frame, by virtue of the stated plans of the customer not to have an EUV adoption until the 7-nanometer technology node at the earliest.

相對於您問題的最後一部分，我們認為 EUV 在 2017 年的時間範圍內沒有任何實質意義，因為客戶聲明的計劃是在 7 納米技術節點之前不採用 EUV最早。

I think we gave you some color on that the last quarter.

我想我們在上個季度給了你一些顏色。

Relative to 30% being a legitimate target for our Company from a proportion of WFE that's available to us, there of course is some assumption associated with how the customer builds 3-D NAND capacity.

相對於我們公司可用的 WFE 比例中 30% 是我們公司的合法目標，當然有一些與客戶如何構建 3-D NAND 容量相關的假設。

But we are not assuming a very grand, I would say, conversion of the planar installed base that sits at more than 1 million wafer starts per month of capacity today.

但我們並沒有假設今天每月產能超過 100 萬片晶圓的平面安裝基礎的轉換非常盛大。

I think there's a lot of learning still in the industry to know quite what 3-D devices get targeted to in terms of end market, and how fast that conversion will play out.

我認為業界還有很多東西要了解 3-D 設備在終端市場方面的目標是什麼，以及這種轉換的速度有多快。

But we haven't assumed a grand conversion of the installed base.

但我們還沒有假設安裝基礎的重大轉變。

We're trying to estimate as best we can an efficient way for the customer to establish that capacity.

我們正在盡最大努力估計客戶建立該容量的有效方法。

We tend to bias a conversion assumption rather than an addition assumption for the industry generally.

我們傾向於偏向轉換假設，而不是一般行業的附加假設。

But as you know, every customer is slightly different relative to answering that question.

但如您所知，每個客戶在回答該問題時都略有不同。

There are some that are very focused on addition, and there are others that are very focused on conversion.

有些非常注重加法，還有一些非常注重轉換。

Great.

偉大的。

That's very helpful.

這很有幫助。

Then quickly touch on the clean side.

然後快速觸摸乾淨的一面。

You guys have a new product.

你們有一個新產品。

Any update on how that's coming along?

有關如何進行的任何更新？

As that product, assuming that's successful later part of this year, which I think was your target, right?

作為那個產品，假設它在今年晚些時候成功，我認為這是你的目標，對吧？

Where do we expect the first initial adoption?

我們期望在哪里首次採用？

Is it foundry, DRAM, or NAND?

是代工廠、DRAM 還是 NAND？

Frankly, three months is a really short period of time in the context of new products in new markets.

坦率地說，對於新市場的新產品來說，三個月是一個非常短的時間。

I don't have so much more to say than I did -- today than I did in October.

我沒有太多話要說——今天比十月份還要多。

Maybe the one exception is for the new product, the EOS product, we have had repeat order of the penetrations that we made for one customer, which is I think a meaningful statement of validation.

也許一個例外是新產品 EOS 產品，我們重複訂購了我們為一位客戶所做的滲透，我認為這是一個有意義的驗證聲明。

But it isn't everything we need.

但這並不是我們所需要的一切。

What we need is an industry to make that choice, as well as a couple of customers.

我們需要的是一個做出這種選擇的行業，以及幾個客戶。

This is the year where I think the decisions of the customers will define the legitimacy of the strategy and the plans of the Company.

今年我認為客戶的決定將決定公司戰略和計劃的合法性。

I think the Company's done a really good job in delivering the productivity differentiation, and getting us process capability for a front end of line clean growth opportunity.

我認為公司在提供生產力差異化方面做得非常好，並為我們提供了前端清潔增長機會的流程能力。

But just because the Company has done it doesn't mean the customers are going to be invested in that selection and that adoption.

但僅僅因為公司已經做到了，並不意味著客戶會投資於這種選擇和採用。

We're doing our best.

我們正在盡力而為。

As you said, this is the year it really plays out one way or the other.

正如你所說，這是它真正以一種或另一種方式發揮作用的一年。

Operator, we have time for two more questions today.

接線員，我們今天有時間再問兩個問題。

Mahesh Sanganeria with RBC Capital Markets.

Mahesh Sanganeria 與 RBC 資本市場。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

I have a question on the foundry commentary you made that spending is up flat to up slightly.

我對你所做的代工評論有疑問，即支出持平或略有上升。

TSMC guided for a 20% increase in CapEx.

台積電指導資本支出增加 20%。

I'm assuming other customers are probably reducing their spending.

我假設其他客戶可能正在減少他們的支出。

Can you talk about where the cut is coming from?

你能談談削減是從哪裡來的嗎？

Is it other customers, is it in the FinFET area, or they're reducing the investment in mature technologies?

是其他客戶，是在 FinFET 領域，還是他們正在減少對成熟技術的投資？

I don't know that I can easily answer that question.

我不知道我能否輕易回答這個問題。

We're assuming that all of the foundry customers are making investments in this calendar year.

我們假設所有代工廠客戶都在本日曆年進行投資。

We're assuming that at least two-thirds of the wafer starts in the industry are getting added at the 14-, 16-nanometer technology node.

我們假設行業中至少三分之二的晶圓開始添加到 14 納米、16 納米技術節點。

As you've heard from two or three customers, I think the 20-nanometer demand is not insignificant.

正如您從兩三個客戶那裡聽到的，我認為 20 納米的需求並非微不足道。

That's in the mix, as well.

這也是混合的。

Okay.

好的。

My follow-up, I just want to revisit the financial model you presented at Analyst Day, mostly in terms of revenues.

我的後續行動，我只想重新審視您在分析師日提出的財務模型，主要是在收入方面。

At $32 billion you were targeting $5.1 -- I think that was probably towards the end of 2015.

320 億美元的目標是 5.1 美元——我認為這可能是在 2015 年底。

I don't think we had that right number -- we don't have that precise number for $34 billion.

我認為我們沒有正確的數字——我們沒有 340 億美元的準確數字。

According to that model, where will you be at $34 billion revenue?

根據該模型，您將在哪裡獲得 340 億美元的收入？

Yes, Mahesh, I'm not going to give you a new model as I sit here right now, but I will give you a little color on it.

是的，Mahesh，我現在坐在這裡不會給你一個新模型，但我會給你一點顏色。

The one thing to think is there's a level of WFE context in the model.

要考慮的一件事是模型中存在一定級別的 WFE 上下文。

There's also a time component to the model, right?

模型還有一個時間組件，對吧？

Because there's a maturation of some of these new tools that are coming out.

因為其中一些新工具已經成熟。

Both of those items are very important to the attainment of the financial model.

這兩項對於財務模型的實現都非常重要。

If you recall, we showed a $5.6-billion 2016-2017 model that got a percentage point better than the 2014-2015 model.

如果您還記得，我們展示了一個價值 56 億美元的 2016-2017 模型，比 2014-2015 模型高出一個百分點。

We're probably somewhere in between each of that, once we get through some of these tool maturations.

一旦我們完成了其中一些工具的成熟，我們可能介於兩者之間。

But we need the time to get through those.

但我們需要時間來解決這些問題。

Okay, that's helpful.

好的，這很有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Thanks, Mahesh.

謝謝，馬赫什。

Mehdi Hosseini, SIG.

Mehdi Hosseini，SIG。

Yes, thanks for squeezing me in.

是的，謝謝你擠我。

Martin, going back to your DRAM bit commentary, what are the key assumptions for that 30% bit growth?

Martin，回到你的 DRAM 位評論，30% 位增長的關鍵假設是什麼？

I say that because earlier this morning Hynix talked about 25%.

我這麼說是因為今天早上海力士談到了 25%。

I think Micron is also talking about 25% bit growth.

我認為美光也在談論 25% 的位增長。

I'm just trying to understand the underlying assumption in your view?

我只是想了解您認為的基本假設？

And I have a follow-up.

我有一個後續行動。

Yes, the assumption is when we kind of add up the collective disclosure from customers, and what's available to us from being inside of the industry and participating real time, that's the best assumption we can give you.

是的，假設是當我們將客戶的集體披露以及我們從行業內部和實時參與中可以獲得的信息加起來時，這是我們可以給您的最佳假設。

Okay.

好的。

For the purpose of modeling, Doug, how should I think about working capital requirement?

出於建模的目的，Doug，我應該如何考慮營運資金需求？

How does the inventory changes from the December into the March quarter?

從 12 月到 3 月季度，庫存如何變化？

Yes, the fact that the denominator goes up even if inventory is flattish, which it probably is going to be, you'll have inventory turns in days come down.

是的，即使庫存持平（很可能會如此），分母也會上升這一事實，您將在幾天內看到庫存周轉率下降。

Directionally, inventory's going to trend down I think as we go through the year, as we've built into this level of shipments.

從方向上看，我認為隨著這一年的過去，庫存將呈下降趨勢，因為我們已經建立了這種出貨水平。

A little bit of color for you to think about as you model it.

在建模時要考慮一點顏色。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝你。

Operator, I think actually we have time for a couple more.

接線員，我想實際上我們還有時間再做幾次。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝你。

At this time we'll move to Atif Malik with Citi.

此時，我們將與花旗一起搬到 Atif Malik。

Hi, thanks for taking my question.

您好，感謝您提出我的問題。

On the $34-billion WFE outlook, Martin can you talk about the swing factor that can take it to $36 billion, or the high end of the range?

關於 340 億美元的 WFE 前景，Martin 您能談談將其推至 360 億美元或該範圍高端的波動因素嗎？

Which segment can take it to that range?

哪個細分市場可以把它帶到那個範圍？

Or is it one segment?

或者它是一個細分市場？

I guess any one can in theory.

我想理論上任何人都可以。

I think the 3-D NAND conversion is more likely to influence in a positive direction than anything, and that's really a statement on the size of that transition and implications of it, and obviously the degree of uncertainty that exists in terms of market penetration of that device at this time.

我認為 3-D NAND 轉換比任何事情都更有可能產生積極的影響，這確實是關於這種轉變的規模及其影響的陳述，顯然在市場滲透方面存在的不確定性程度此時該設備。

I do think FinFET conversions can accelerate, if there's momentum that is in excess of stated plans in terms of going from planar to a FinFET device.

我確實認為，如果從平面到 FinFET 器件的發展勢頭超出既定計劃，FinFET 轉換可以加速。

But it feels to me like the up side is greater in memory than foundry logic, and greater in NAND than DRAM.

但在我看來，內存的優勢大於代工邏輯，而 NAND 的優勢大於 DRAM。

But I guess in theory, all of them can move in a positive direction.

但我想從理論上講，它們都可以朝著積極的方向發展。

Got it.

知道了。

On the timing of EUV insertion, one of the foundries has taken a pilot production litho tool.

在 EUV 插入時間上，其中一家代工廠已進行了試生產光刻工具。

I'm just curious if anything has changed to your thinking in terms of insertion node?

我只是好奇您在插入節點方面的想法是否發生了變化？

No, nothing really.

不，真的什麼都沒有。

We're still thinking 7-nanometer is the earliest.

我們仍然認為 7 納米是最早的。

The only thing that I read in the last three months reinforced the complexity of the infrastructure around the EUV process itself as being a significant component of that question.

我在過去三個月中讀到的唯一一件事強化了 EUV 工藝本身基礎設施的複雜性，這是該問題的重要組成部分。

It didn't look like it got any easier.

它看起來並沒有變得更容易。

It looked like it got more difficult, as best I could tell.

據我所知，它看起來變得更加困難。

Okay, Harlan, you're up.

好的，哈蘭，你起來了。

Thanks, Atif.

謝謝，阿提夫。

Harlan, you're the last guy today.

哈蘭，你是今天最後一個人。

Operator, next question please?

接線員，請問下一個問題？

Harlan Sur, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的哈蘭蘇爾。

Hi, this is Bill Peterson calling on behalf of Harlan.

嗨，我是比爾·彼得森（Bill Peterson）代表哈倫打電話。

Thanks for sneaking us in, and congrats on the good December quarter.

感謝您偷偷溜進來，並祝賀 12 月季度的良好表現。

I wanted to clarify a few things relative to your commentary on logic, when you mentioned about re-use.

當您提到重用時，我想澄清一些與您對邏輯的評論相關的事情。

I'm trying to understand what would be different in logic relative to the foundries.

我試圖了解相對於代工廠在邏輯上會有什麼不同。

The nature of them, a lot of the logic -- some logic customers already at FinFET, and a lot of the foundries are not.

它們的性質，很多邏輯——一些邏輯客戶已經在 FinFET，而很多代工廠還沒有。

If you could provide some color on that, that would be very useful.

如果您可以在上面提供一些顏色，那將非常有用。

Thanks.

謝謝。

I think really it's the age-old relative ease -- I don't think it's easy, but in relative terms it probably is.

我認為這真的是由來已久的相對輕鬆——我認為這並不容易，但相對而言它可能是。

With the amount of die concentration that exists in a microprocessor fab compared to the distributed die, and customer reality of a foundry, the conversion cycle really is a big challenge.

與分佈式裸片相比，微處理器晶圓廠中存在的裸片集中度以及代工廠的客戶實際情況，轉換週期確實是一個巨大的挑戰。

I think that's the principal reason.

我認為這是主要原因。

There is an emerging trend of some substance to conversion in foundry, but it does not compare to what is available to the microprocessor world.

代工廠中出現了某種物質轉換的新興趨勢，但它與微處理器世界可用的物質相比是無法比擬的。

In terms of implications, does that just mean more upgrades?

就影響而言，這是否意味著更多的升級？

What does it mean in terms of how do we think about it for implications for Lam and other equipment vendors?

就我們如何看待它對 Lam 和其他設備供應商的影響而言，這意味著什麼？

I think it can be when people do conversions, it can be upgrades from a hardware perspective.

我認為當人們進行轉換時，可以從硬件角度進行升級。

Sometimes it's nothing, because they find a way to make the hardware work and there's a process modification.

有時這沒什麼，因為他們找到了一種使硬件工作的方法，並且有一個過程修改。

With rare exceptions, this industry doesn't get paid very much for process.

除了極少數例外，這個行業的流程報酬並不高。

It gets paid for the hardware that gets sold into a fab, even though perhaps the value contribution that is really made is a process contribution.

它為出售給晶圓廠的硬件而獲得報酬，即使真正做出的價值貢獻可能是工藝貢獻。

But that's a long story.

但這是一個很長的故事。

Great.

偉大的。

All right, thank you operator.

好的，謝謝運營商。

That's all we have time for today.

這就是我們今天的全部時間。

Thank you for your participation, and we will look forward to talking with you again next quarter.

感謝您的參與，我們期待下個季度再次與您交談。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Once again, this does conclude today's conference call.

再次，這確實結束了今天的電話會議。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。