科林研發 (LRCX) 2014 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by.

女士們，先生們，美好的一天，感謝你們的支持。

Welcome to the Lam Research Corporation December 2013 quarterly result conference call.

歡迎參加 Lam Research Corporation 2013 年 12 月季度業績電話會議。

During the presentation, all participants will be in a listen-old mode.

在演示過程中，所有參與者都將處於舊聽模式。

Following the presentation, the conference will be open for questions.

演講結束後，會議將開放提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Shanye Hudson, Senior Director of Investor Relations.

我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係高級總監 Shanye Hudson。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to our quarterly conference call.

大家下午好，歡迎參加我們的季度電話會議。

With me today are Martin Anstice, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Doug Bettinger, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

今天和我在一起的是總裁兼首席執行官 Martin Anstice；以及執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Doug Bettinger。

During today's call, we will share our outlook on the business environment and review our financial results for the December 2013 quarter and our outlook for the March 2014 quarter.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將分享我們對商業環境的展望，並回顧我們 2013 年 12 月季度的財務業績和 2014 年 3 月季度的展望。

The press release detailing our financial results was distributed over the wire services shortly after 1 p.m.

下午 1 點後不久，我們通過有線服務分發了詳細說明我們財務業績的新聞稿。

this afternoon.

今天下午。

It can also be found in the Investor Relations section of the Company's website, along with the presentation slides accompanying today's call.

它也可以在公司網站的投資者關係部分以及今天電話會議隨附的演示幻燈片中找到。

Today's presentation and Q&A will include statements about our expectations and beliefs regarding certain future outcomes and including our guidance.

今天的演講和問答將包括關於我們對某些未來結果的期望和信念的陳述，包括我們的指導。

A more thorough list of forward-looking topics that we expect to cover is shown on the slide accompanying my remarks.

我們期望涵蓋的更全面的前瞻性主題列表顯示在我的評論隨附的幻燈片上。

All statements made that are not historic facts are forward-looking statements based on current information, and are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially.

所有非歷史事實的陳述都是基於當前信息的前瞻性陳述，並受到可能導致實際結果產生重大差異的風險和不確定性的影響。

We encourage you to review the risk factors in our disclosures and public filings including our 10-K and 10-Qs.

我們鼓勵您查看我們的披露和公開文件中的風險因素，包括我們的 10-K 和 10-Q。

The Company undertakes no obligation to update forward-looking statements.

本公司不承擔更新前瞻性陳述的義務。

Today's discussion of our financial results will be presented on a non-GAAP financial basis unless other side specified.

今天對我們財務業績的討論將在非公認會計原則財務基礎上提出，除非另有說明。

A detailed reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP results can be found in today's earnings press release.

可以在今天的收益新聞稿中找到 GAAP 和非 GAAP 結果之間的詳細核對。

This call is scheduled to last until 3 p.m.

這次電話會議計劃持續到下午 3 點。

Pacific time, and as always we ask that you limit questions to one per firm with a very brief follow up, such that we can accommodate as many questions as possible.

太平洋時間，我們一如既往地要求您將問題限制在每家公司一個，並進行非常簡短的跟進，以便我們可以容納盡可能多的問題。

As a reminder a webcast replay of this call will be available later this afternoon on our website.

提醒一下，今天下午晚些時候將在我們的網站上提供該電話的網絡重播。

With that, I'll turn the call over to you, Martin.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給你，馬丁。

Thank you, Shanye, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝山野，大家下午好。

Thank you for joining us today.

感謝您今天加入我們。

I'll start by sharing the highlights of 2013 Company performance and then discuss our outlook for 2014, which provides our perspective on Lam's opportunities and areas of focus over the next 12 months.

我將首先分享 2013 年公司業績的亮點，然後討論我們對 2014 年的展望，這提供了我們對 Lam 未來 12 個月的機會和重點領域的看法。

Doug will then follow with our financial results and guidance commentary before turning the call to Q&A.

然後，道格將跟進我們的財務業績和指導評論，然後再將電話轉至問答環節。

2013 was an extraordinary year for Lam Research which establishes a platform for our future and unifies more than 6,500 global employees around the achievement of an exciting vision.

2013 年對於 Lam Research 來說是不平凡的一年，它為我們的未來搭建了一個平台，並團結了 6,500 多名全球員工，以實現令人興奮的願景。

We achieved nearly $4 billion of revenues and delivered in excess of our targeted gross margins for the 2013/2014 time frame of approximately 45%, representing an increase of 170 basis points year-over-year.

我們在 2013/2014 年的時間框架內實現了近 40 億美元的收入，並超過了大約 45% 的目標毛利率，同比增長 170 個基點。

We grew operating profit dollars twice as fast as revenues, illustrating our ongoing focus on strong operational execution and profitable growth.

我們的營業利潤增長速度是收入的兩倍，這表明我們持續關注強大的運營執行和盈利增長。

We delivered on time our committed synergy targets with $100 million in annualized cost savings and approximately $130 million in revenues, both achieved with strong collaboration and ownership across the Company.

我們按時實現了承諾的協同效應目標，每年節省 1 億美元的成本和約 1.3 億美元的收入，這兩項目標都是在整個公司的強大協作和所有權下實現的。

Accelerated by our reenergized commitment to install base performance, we closed the largest service contract in the Company's history tailored to support a broad range of customer specific needs.

在我們對安裝基礎性能重新註入活力的承諾的推動下，我們簽訂了公司歷史上最大的服務合同，旨在支持廣泛的客戶特定需求。

We defended our positions or gained market share in all of our business units through a period of ever more challenging customer requirements and competitive intensity.

在客戶要求和競爭強度越來越高的時期，我們捍衛了我們的地位或在我們所有的業務部門中獲得了市場份額。

Combined, our performance in 2013, enabled us to outpace industry growth by a healthy margin with system shipments up about 10% year-over-year for Lam and Novellus combined, compared with wafer fabrication equipment spending up around 3% to approximately $29 billion.

綜合起來，我們在 2013 年的表現使我們能夠以健康的利潤率超過行業增長，Lam 和 Novellus 的系統出貨量同比增長約 10%，而晶圓製造設備的支出增長約 3%，達到約 290 億美元。

This 2013 performance demonstrates solid execution against our near-term financial models at a pace that we consider slightly ahead of schedule.

2013 年的業績表明，我們的近期財務模型執行穩健，我們認為其速度略高於計劃。

As we move into 2014, we're continuing to aggressively pursue opportunities to drive further efficiencies in support of our growth objectives.

隨著我們進入 2014 年，我們將繼續積極尋求機會以進一步提高效率，以支持我們的增長目標。

We continue to position next generation products targeting increased competitive differentiation and lower cost, both critical for the achievements of next level profit performance defined by our 2015/2016 financial model.

我們將繼續定位下一代產品，以提高競爭差異化和降低成本，這對於實現我們 2015/2016 年財務模型所定義的下一級利潤表現至關重要。

We kicked off a multiyear plan to consolidate our real estate footprints which we expected will drive incremental operating improvements.

我們啟動了一項多年計劃，以鞏固我們的房地產足跡，我們預計這將推動逐步改善運營。

These plans serve to increase efficiency of our R&D activities and further promote collaboration across the organization, a key differentiator leveraging our culture and core value of customer, Company, and individual.

這些計劃有助於提高我們研發活動的效率，並進一步促進整個組織的協作，這是利用我們的文化和客戶、公司和個人的核心價值的關鍵差異化因素。

We also established comprehensive three-year plans across our integrated manufacturing and supply chain which are based on an in-depth perception of performance over the past 18 months.

我們還根據對過去 18 個月績效的深入了解，在我們的集成製造和供應鏈中製定了全面的三年計劃。

Our plans are built on our sustained commitment to pilot line and high volume manufacturing strategic locations and strategic partnerships, outsourcing, and localization.

我們的計劃建立在我們對試驗線和大批量製造戰略位置以及戰略合作夥伴關係、外包和本地化的持續承諾之上。

We target cost, quality, and service benefits through these plans, which serve to increase our focus and strengthen competitive differentiation going forward.

我們通過這些計劃以成本、質量和服務效益為目標，這有助於提高我們的關注度並加強未來的競爭差異化。

In summary, through performance that meets or exceeds commitments made and the establishments of plans for execution for our future vision, 2013 was an extraordinary year and one which we hope serves to continue to come compel our full shareholder community, our shareholders, our customers, our suppliers and last but not least, our employees to invest in Lam for the long-term.

總之，通過達到或超過承諾的業績以及為我們的未來願景制定執行計劃，2013 年是不平凡的一年，我們希望這一年能夠繼續推動我們的全體股東社區、我們的股東、我們的客戶、我們的供應商，最後但並非最不重要的一點是，我們的員工將長期投資於 Lam。

With our guidance and commentary today, we believe that we are off to a great start this year and look forward to discussing more with you in the months ahead.

憑藉我們今天的指導和評論，我們相信我們今年的開局很好，並期待在未來幾個月與您進行更多討論。

Our growth outlook for 2014 is enabled by our customers' transition to next-generation logic and memory devices that make the much anticipated inflections tangible and expanding opportunities for the Company as customer adoption broadens through 2015.

我們的 2014 年增長前景得益於我們的客戶向下一代邏輯和存儲設備的過渡，隨著客戶採用範圍的擴大到 2015 年，這些設備使備受期待的變化變得切實可見，並為公司帶來了不斷擴大的機會。

We continue to forecast 2014 WFE spending of $32 billion, plus or minus $2 billion with an incrementally broader participation of customers assumed relative to 2013.

我們繼續預測 2014 年 WFE 支出為 320 億美元，上下浮動 20 億美元，假設與 2013 年相比，客戶參與度越來越高。

More than ever, the landscape of this year's investment pattern is influenced by the timing of inflection specific activities.

今年投資模式的格局比以往任何時候都更受特定活動時間的影響。

Although overall, we expect a reasonably balanced year first half compared to second half, we do see variability quarter-to-quarter, resulting from the influence of a consolidated customer base, and remaining uncertainty around the ultimate scope and timing of spending at the four inflections FinFET, 3D NANDs, patterning, and packaging.

儘管總體而言，我們預計上半年與下半年相比，今年上半年會出現合理平衡，但我們確實看到了季度間的變化，這是由於綜合客戶群的影響，以及四季度支出的最終範圍和時間仍然存在不確定性。 FinFET、3D NAND、圖案化和封裝。

In the Foundry segments, we saw the pace of 20-nanometer investments accelerate at the end of 2013, signaling a robust commitment in the demand for devices using 20-nanometer technology.

在 Foundry 領域，我們看到 20 納米投資的步伐在 2013 年底加快，表明對使用 20 納米技術的設備的需求強勁。

As of today, spending is more heavily concentrated between a couple of customers with capacity additions and conversion activities planned primarily for the first half of this year.

截至今天，支出更多地集中在幾個客戶之間，主要計劃在今年上半年進行產能增加和轉換活動。

In the recent period, the Foundry space is arguably grown more competitive with new entrants challenging the delineation of traditional pure play Foundries and Logic manufacturers.

最近一段時間，Foundry 領域的競爭可以說變得更加激烈，新進入者對傳統純遊戲 Foundries 和 Logic 製造商的劃分提出了挑戰。

For Foundries, the race to develop FinFET devices has led to multiple pilot line projects starting in the first half of this year.

對於 Foundries 而言，開發 FinFET 器件的競賽已導致從今年上半年開始的多個試驗線項目。

We expect those investments to continue through the year with total capacity additions dependent on end user demand and the pace at which production ramps yield.

我們預計這些投資將持續到今年，總產能的增加取決於最終用戶的需求和產量提升的速度。

Taken together, our prior forecast for Foundry spending between $13 billion and $14 billion still seems reasonable for 2014.

綜上所述，我們之前對 2014 年 Foundry 支出 130 億至 140 億美元的預測似乎仍然合理。

Similarly, we maintained our forecast for microprocessor and other Logic spending of around $6 billion, or relatively flat with 2013 levels.

同樣，我們維持對微處理器和其他邏輯設備支出約 60 億美元的預測，或與 2013 年的水平相對持平。

Continuing the 2013 theme, embedded in our forecast is the expectation that significant leading edge logic production capacity can be satisfied through equipment reuse and capacity conversions.

繼續 2013 年的主題，我們預測中包含的預期是通過設備再利用和產能轉換可以滿足重要的領先邏輯生產能力。

Looking at the memory markets, we continue to see stable pricing conditions and tight supply entering 2014 with customers who continue to exhibit due rigor in evaluating their capital spending decisions.

縱觀內存市場，我們繼續看到穩定的定價條件和進入 2014 年的供應緊張，客戶在評估其資本支出決策時繼續表現出應有的嚴謹性。

DRAM manufactures are accelerating transitions to the mid 2X technology nodes and the broader participation of customers are entering 20-nanometer pilot production.

DRAM 製造商正在加速向中間 2X 技術節點的過渡，客戶的更廣泛參與正在進入 20 納米試生產。

We forecast bit supply growth in the low 30% range led by mobile device demand, and this is accomplished largely through equipment upgrade, albeit with capital intensity higher than prior generations.

我們預測，在移動設備需求的帶動下，比特供應增長將在 30% 左右，這主要是通過設備升級來實現的，儘管資本密集度高於前幾代產品。

In the NAND segments, remaining planar capacity additions seem clear, and the initial 3D NAND production ramp is progressing largely in accordance with our expectations.

在 NAND 領域，剩餘的平面產能增加似乎很明顯，並且最初的 3D NAND 產量增長在很大程度上符合我們的預期。

Over time, as the 3D devices move to structures with more layers, our customers appear to anticipate cost and performance benefits, the support of broad industry conversion which underpins their plans this year.

隨著時間的推移，隨著 3D 設備轉向具有更多層的結構，我們的客戶似乎預期成本和性能優勢，支持廣泛的行業轉換，這是他們今年計劃的基礎。

We currently project between 80,000 and 100,000 wafer starts of 3D NAND shipped capacity will be installed by the end of calendar 2014.

我們目前預計 80,000 到 100,000 片晶圓的 3D NAND 出貨量將在 2014 年年底前安裝。

In addition in recent weeks, 2014 planer NAND investment plans to transition to 16-nanometer devices have solidified for more than one customer.

此外，最近幾週，2014 年平面 NAND 投資計劃向 16 納米器件過渡的計劃已經為不止一個客戶確定。

Overall, we still expect supply bit growth to be in the low 40% range.

總體而言，我們仍然預計供應位增長將在 40% 的低位範圍內。

On a combined basis, we forecast Memory spending will increase by 10% to 20% year-over-year with wafer fab spend between $12 billion and $13 billion, representing an increasing proportion of WFE year-over-year and approximately 40% of the total.

綜合來看，我們預計內存支出將同比增長 10% 至 20%，晶圓廠的支出將在 120 億美元至 130 億美元之間，佔 WFE 的比例同比增加，約佔 40%全部的。

Adding this all together, our outlook for 2014 wafer fabrication equipment spending with a midpoint of $32 billion would represent the fifth consecutive year with relatively healthy and disciplined equipment spending.

將這些加在一起，我們對 2014 年晶圓製造設備支出的預期中值為 320 億美元，這將是連續第五年設備支出相對健康和規範。

It's always important to note that visibility beyond this quarter and especially into the second half is clearly more limited than the near term.

始終重要的是要注意，本季度之後，尤其是下半年的能見度顯然比近期更有限。

Where we ultimately end up in our WFE range will largely depend on production readiness and market acceptance of the technology inflections just highlighted.

我們最終在 WFE 範圍內的最終結果將在很大程度上取決於生產準備情況和市場對剛剛強調的技術變化的接受程度。

In this positive industry environment, which for Lam is supplemented by inflection-led addressable market size expansion and target market share growth, I'm very encouraged by our industry outperform opportunity.

在這個積極的行業環境中，對 Lam 而言，以變化為主導的可尋址市場規模擴張和目標市場份額增長為補充，我對我們行業跑贏大盤的機會感到非常鼓舞。

With the transition to 3D NAND we've gained strong production tool decisions, maintaining our lead in etch while driving significant gains in deposition.

隨著向 3D NAND 的過渡，我們獲得了強有力的生產工具決策，保持了我們在蝕刻方面的領先地位，同時推動了沉積方面的顯著增長。

Our pipeline of new products were key to our success including our next generation dielectric edge model, our new highly productive dielectric deposition platform, and our differentiated tungsten CVD system.

我們的新產品系列是我們成功的關鍵，包括我們的下一代介電邊緣模型、我們新的高效介電沉積平台和我們的差異化鎢 CVD 系統。

We are well positioned with each of the 3D NAND pilot lines we believe and are focused on achieving, at a minimum, the same degree of success production tool decisions are finalized.

我們在我們認為的每條 3D NAND 試驗線中都處於有利地位，並且專注於至少最終確定相同程度的成功生產工具決策。

We believe that we have additional opportunities to gain applications through the transition to second and third generation 3D NAND devices, where the increased number of alternating films also proliferates the complexity of the etch and deposition processes.

我們相信，通過過渡到第二代和第三代 3D NAND 設備，我們有更多的機會獲得應用，其中交替薄膜數量的增加也增加了蝕刻和沈積工藝的複雜性。

We're actively engaged with our customers to address those challenges.

我們正積極與客戶合作以應對這些挑戰。

In the area of multi-patterning our conductor etch business benefiting from the increased number of multi-patterning steps required with the transition to smaller device geometries.

在多圖案化領域，我們的導體蝕刻業務受益於向更小的器件幾何形狀過渡所需的多圖案化步驟數量的增加。

Although device dependent, we see emerging evidence of slightly more than our early estimates of 8 to 10 new multi-patterning steps, in a 20-nanometer logic device for foundries, compared to a 28-nanometer baseline and the 12 to 13 steps for 16- to 14-nanometer devices.

儘管依賴於器件，但我們看到新的證據表明，在用於代工廠的 20 納米邏輯器件中，與 28 納米基線和 12 到 13 步相比，用於代工廠的 8 到 10 個新多重圖案步驟略多於我們早期估計的估計。 - 到 14 納米器件。

In DRAM, the number of multi-patterning steps more than doubles with the transition to 20-nanometer, going from 3 or 4 in a mid 2X device to between 8 and 10 at 20-nanometer with the same evidence on up side of number of passes.

在 DRAM 中，隨著向 20 納米的過渡，多圖案化步驟的數量增加了一倍以上，從 2X 中期設備中的 3 或 4 個增加到 20 納米的 8 到 10 個之間，在數量上也有相同的證據。通過。

You should expect more specificity from Lam on this in the coming quarters.

您應該期待 Lam 在接下來的幾個季度對此有更多的具體說明。

This transition also presents growth opportunities for our deposition business.

這種轉變也為我們的沉積業務帶來了增長機會。

Many of the spacer-base, multi-patterning deposition steps can be done with batch furnaces today, however, customers are evaluating or starting to transition these steps to single wafer atomic layer deposition, or ALD, tools as the film conformability and uniformity requirements increased.

如今，許多基於隔板的多圖案沉積步驟都可以使用批量爐完成，但是，隨著薄膜一致性和均勻性要求的提高，客戶正在評估或開始將這些步驟轉換為單晶片原子層沉積或 ALD 工具.

We're engaged with multiple memory manufactures with our off-side ALD tool, and based on the feedback received so far, believe with continued hard work we are well positioned for production tool decisions expected this year.

我們正在使用我們的非側 ALD 工具與多家內存製造商合作，並且根據迄今為止收到的反饋，相信通過持續的努力，我們已經為今年預期的生產工具決策做好了準備。

In Logic, we often talk about the transition to FinFET structures and the complexity around the transistor.

在 Logic 中，我們經常談論向 FinFET 結構的過渡以及晶體管周圍的複雜性。

However, the complexity in the back end is growing at a rapidly accelerating pace also.

然而，後端的複雜性也在快速增長。

As transistor densities in these devices increase, the wiring schemes required to connect these transitions become more and more complicated.

隨著這些器件中晶體管密度的增加，連接這些轉換所需的佈線方案變得越來越複雜。

Starting around the 32-nanometer node, customers introduced a metal hard mask etch scheme for a couple of wiring layers.

從 32 納米節點開始，客戶為幾個佈線層引入了金屬硬掩模蝕刻方案。

The number of layers has grown with each successive node, and Lam stands to benefit as the clear market leader for this application.

每個連續節點的層數都在增加，Lam 將作為該應用程序的明顯市場領導者而受益。

To maintain device reliability and performance, customers began adopting film treatments and other processes that play into a few of Lam's strengths.

為了保持設備的可靠性和性能，客戶開始採用薄膜處理和其他工藝，這些工藝發揮了 Lam 的一些優勢。

Our solar ultraviolet thermal processing tool is the market leader used to improve the integrity of ultra low-key films, predominantly for leading edge logic devices.

我們的太陽能紫外熱處理工具是用於提高超低調薄膜完整性的市場領導者，主要用於前沿邏輯器件。

The number of layers requiring UV cure of low-k dielectric films is also increasing with each successive node, again a positive opportunity for Lam.

需要對低 k 介電薄膜進行紫外線固化的層數也隨著每個連續節點的增加而增加，這對 Lam 來說又是一個積極的機會。

With thinner and more closely packed films, reliability of the top lines is becoming more of a challenge.

隨著薄膜更薄、更緊密，頂線的可靠性變得越來越具有挑戰性。

Lam has developed a unique film pretreatment module which enhances reliability and reduces resistance, a factor in device speed.

Lam 開發了一種獨特的薄膜預處理模塊，可提高可靠性並降低電阻，這是設備速度的一個因素。

Our solution was recently selected for next generation logic devices, and we expect to ship production tools through this year.

我們的解決方案最近被選擇用於下一代邏輯器件，我們預計將在今年推出生產工具。

In single wafer clean, we will have shipped our third next generation spin clean system as planned in the next couple of weeks.

在單晶圓清洗方面，我們將按計劃在接下來的幾週內交付我們的第三代下一代旋轉清洗系統。

These tools are being installed at leading memory and logic device manufacturers and are being evaluated for a broad range of applications including front-end-of-line.

這些工具已安裝在領先的內存和邏輯設備製造商處，並正在針對包括前端在內的廣泛應用進行評估。

It's still early, but the initial progress and process data we've received is in line with their expectations and the intensity of managing yields to a higher definition access for our customers clearly very relevant in evaluating that opportunity.

現在還為時過早，但我們收到的初步進展和流程數據符合他們的期望，並且我們的客戶管理產量以獲得更高清晰度的訪問的強度顯然與評估該機會非常相關。

We would expect to have broader reliability and process data towards the middle of the June quarter to begin making assessments on how the tools are performing relative to our customers' requirements and our competition in the second half.

我們預計將在 6 月季度中期獲得更廣泛的可靠性和流程數據，以便開始評估這些工具相對於我們客戶的要求和下半年競爭的表現。

As we embark on 2014 and beyond, we believe the opportunities available to Lam Research are significant.

隨著我們邁入 2014 年及以後，我們相信 Lam Research 可利用的機會是巨大的。

We're focused on exploiting those opportunities to their fullest by continuing to strengthen our competitiveness.

我們專注於通過繼續加強我們的競爭力來充分利用這些機會。

We're increasing the magnitude of new product releases and customer engagements, particularly in the area of dielectric etch, atomic layer deposition, and single wafer clean.

我們正在增加新產品發布和客戶參與的規模，特別是在介電蝕刻、原子層沉積和單晶片清潔領域。

We're starting to execute newly developed operational plans to drive efficiencies across many aspects of the business, targeting at achieving our 2015/2016 performance ambition.

我們開始執行新制定的運營計劃，以提高業務各個方面的效率，以實現我們 2015/2016 年的業績目標。

We're reducing our emphasis -- sorry, reinforcing our emphasis on customer trust, broader collaboration, and strategic relevance to our customer in light of semi equipment consolidation trends.

鑑於半設備整合趨勢，我們正在減少我們的重點——抱歉，加強我們對客戶信任、更廣泛的協作以及與客戶的戰略相關性的重視。

Today, we are very focused on achieving our long-term growth objectives, competing as one integrated Company.

今天，我們非常專注於實現我們的長期增長目標，作為一家綜合性公司進行競爭。

We have tremendous strength in the capability and commitment of the whole Lam Research team, and I would like to take this opportunity to thank each and every employee for their contributions last year, and wish them success in pursuit of our 2014 vision.

我們在整個 Lam Research 團隊的能力和承諾方面擁有巨大的實力，我想藉此機會感謝每一位員工去年的貢獻，並祝愿他們在實現我們 2014 年的願景時取得成功。

A year where at the $32 billion WFE level, we anticipate increasing our operating income over 2013 at twice the rate of our revenue growth, further, growing cash from operations year-over-year at twice the rates of operating income.

在 320 億美元的 WFE 水平上，我們預計 2013 年我們的營業收入將以我們收入增長率的兩倍增長，此外，運營現金的同比增長將是營業收入的兩倍。

With that, I will turn the call over to Doug to discuss December quarter financial results in more detail, and provide our guidance for the March 2014 quarter.

有了這個，我將把電話轉給 Doug，更詳細地討論 12 月季度的財務業績，並提供我們對 2014 年 3 月季度的指導。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Martin.

謝謝你，馬丁。

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining our call.

大家下午好，感謝您加入我們的電話會議。

We finished calendar year 2013 on what I believe is a very strong note.

我們完成了 2013 日曆年，我認為這是一個非常強烈的結果。

Shipments for the December quarter reached an all time high.

12 月季度的出貨量創歷史新高。

We achieved record revenues for a third consecutive quarter.

我們連續第三個季度實現創紀錄的收入。

We grew operating profit more than two times as fast as revenue, and we delivered earnings per share above our expectations.

我們的營業利潤增長速度是收入的兩倍多，每股收益高於我們的預期。

This financial performance comes partly as a result of us delivering on the promise of bringing Lam and Novellus together.

這一財務業績部分是由於我們兌現了將 Lam 和 Novellus 合併的承諾。

Let me now provide a little more detail of our December quarter.

現在讓我提供更多關於我們 12 月季度的詳細信息。

Shipments increased by 15% sequentially to $1.139 billion which was slightly above the midpoint of our guidance range.

出貨量環比增長 15% 至 11.39 億美元，略高於我們指導範圍的中點。

Consistent with our expectations, we saw strong growth in Memory shipments as well as the sustained level of Foundry spending.

與我們的預期一致，我們看到了內存出貨量的強勁增長以及 Foundry 支出的持續水平。

The combined Memory segment represented 64% of total system shipments, and this was up from 48% in September.

合併後的內存部分佔系統總出貨量的 64%，高於 9 月份的 48%。

NAND system shipments contributed 36% versus 28% in the prior quarter and includes shipments to the first 3D NAND production facility.

NAND 系統出貨量貢獻了 36%，而上一季度為 28%，其中包括對第一個 3D NAND 生產設施的出貨量。

We saw a sizable increase in DRAM shipments which represented 28% of system shipments which was up from 19% in the September quarter.

我們看到 DRAM 出貨量大幅增長，佔系統出貨量的 28%，高於 9 月季度的 19%。

Foundry shipments were 28% of total system shipments, and this was down from 36% last quarter.

代工出貨量佔系統總出貨量的 28%，低於上一季度的 36%。

On an absolute dollar basis however, Foundry system shipments were relatively flat supported by ongoing investments for the 20-nanometer node.

然而，以絕對美元計算，Foundry 系統的出貨量相對持平，這得益於對 20 納米節點的持續投資。

The remaining 8% was made up of Logic and other shipments.

剩下的 8% 由 Logic 和其他出貨量組成。

Revenue for the December quarter was $1.116 billion.

12 月季度的收入為 11.16 億美元。

This also was slightly above the midpoint of our guided range and was 10% higher than in the September quarter.

這也略高於我們指導範圍的中點，比 9 月季度高出 10%。

December gross margin percentage came in pretty much as we expected at 48.5%, which was stronger than our 2013/2014 financial models.

12 月的毛利率幾乎符合我們的預期，為 48.5%，這比我們 2013/2014 年的財務模型要強。

This was an 80 basis point increase from the September quarter.

這比 9 月季度增加了 80 個基點。

We benefited from a favorable product mix during the quarter, and as I've shared with you before, our gross margin performance is impacted by many factors including product mix, customer mix, and overall business volumes.

我們在本季度受益於有利的產品組合，正如我之前與您分享的那樣，我們的毛利率表現受到許多因素的影響，包括產品組合、客戶組合和整體業務量。

Increasingly, as we're running at close to full utilization, the impact of volume is less important than the product and customer mix changes.

越來越多地，隨著我們以接近完全利用率運行，數量的影響不如產品和客戶組合的變化重要。

Nonetheless, we will see quarterly fluctuations in our gross margin performance depending on all of those variables.

儘管如此，我們將看到我們的毛利率表現的季度波動取決於所有這些變量。

For the calendar year, our gross margin performance of approximately 45% was fairly consistent with our financial model, and we continue to point to our financial model as the best proxy for our financial performance, including the timing and WFE reference points.

在這一日曆年，我們約 45% 的毛利率表現與我們的財務模型相當一致，我們繼續指出我們的財務模型是我們財務表現的最佳代表，包括時間和 WFE 參考點。

Operating expenses for the December quarter increased to $302 million consistent with our expectations.

12 月季度的運營費用增至 3.02 億美元，符合我們的預期。

On a percentage basis, our December quarter expenses were 27% of revenue, and this compares with 29% in the previous quarter.

按百分比計算，我們 12 月季度的支出佔收入的 27%，而上一季度為 29%。

R&D as a percentage of total operating expenses was 58%.

研發佔總運營費用的百分比為 58%。

We continue to invest in next generation products and technologies to strengthen our competitive position for the long-term success of the Company.

我們將繼續投資於下一代產品和技術，以加強我們的競爭地位，以實現公司的長期成功。

Operating income increased by 27% to $209 million in the December quarter, and this compares with $165 million in the September quarter.

12 月季度的營業收入增長 27% 至 2.09 億美元，而 9 月季度的營業收入為 1.65 億美元。

Our resulting operating margin was 18.7%, pretty much as we expected and I think shows the operating leverage in our financial model.

我們由此產生的營業利潤率為 18.7%，幾乎符合我們的預期，我認為這顯示了我們財務模型中的經營槓桿。

Other income and expense came in with a positive impact of several million relative to our original expectations.

相對於我們最初的預期，其他收入和支出產生了數百萬的積極影響。

This was primarily due to a strong stock market in the quarter and its resulting impact on our deferred compensation investment portfolio.

這主要是由於本季度強勁的股市及其對我們遞延薪酬投資組合的影響。

Our tax rate for the December quarter was approximately 9.3% which was consistent with our planning assumptions, and I continue to expect the tax rate in the low- to mid-teens will carry through the remainder of the 2014 fiscal year.

我們 12 月季度的稅率約為 9.3%，這與我們的計劃假設一致，我繼續預計 2014 財年剩餘時間內中低年級的稅率將持續。

Based on a share count of approximately 172 million shares, earnings per share for the December quarter totaled $1.10.

根據大約 1.72 億股的股票數量，12 月季度的每股收益總計 1.10 美元。

This result was better than forecast coming into the quarter, and I should point out the share count includes the dilutive impact from our 2041 convertible note of approximately 6.6 million shares, and that was based on an average quarterly share price of $52.52.

這一結果好於本季度的預期，我應該指出，股票數量包括我們 2041 年可轉換票據約 660 萬股的稀釋影響，這是基於平均季度股價 52.52 美元計算的。

And I'll just remind you that we include a schedule on our IR website that shows the impact of this note to help you in your planning.

我只想提醒您，我們在我們的 IR 網站上包含了一個時間表，該時間表顯示了此說明的影響，以幫助您進行規劃。

During the December quarter, we spent $40 million on the repurchase of approximately 760,000 shares of common stock with an average price of $52.20.

在 12 月季度，我們斥資 4000 萬美元回購了大約 760,000 股普通股，平均價格為 52.20 美元。

At this point, we have completed more than half of our current $250 million authorization.

至此，我們已經完成了目前 2.5 億美元授權的一半以上。

This level of buyback will help us accomplish our objective of managing the dilution from our employee equity plans, and I'd also just point out we're well on track to complete this authorization in calendar 2014.

這種程度的回購將幫助我們實現管理員工股權計劃稀釋的目標，我還要指出，我們有望在 2014 日曆年完成這項授權。

Let me now take you to the balance sheet.

現在讓我帶你看看資產負債表。

We ended the quarter with gross cash and short-term investments including our restrictive cash of $2.7 billion, and this compares with $2.6 billion in the September quarter.

我們以總現金和短期投資結束本季度，其中包括 27 億美元的限制性現金，而 9 月季度為 26 億美元。

Our cash balances remain roughly 25% onshore and 75% offshore.

我們的現金餘額保持在大約 25% 的境內和 75% 的境外。

We had deferred revenue of $405 million, which does not include the $54 million in shipments to Japanese customers, which will convert to revenue in future quarters.

我們有 4.05 億美元的遞延收入，其中不包括向日本客戶發貨的 5400 萬美元，這將在未來幾個季度轉化為收入。

DSO for December was 74 days, and this compares to 64 days in the September quarter.

12 月的 DSO 為 74 天，而 9 月季度為 64 天。

I mentioned on last quarter's earnings call we expected shipments to be back end loaded in the December quarter.

我在上個季度的財報電話會議上提到，我們預計出貨量將在 12 月季度後端裝載。

Due to the timing of customer projects this profile was somewhat more pronounced than we originally anticipated.

由於客戶項目的時間安排，這種情況比我們最初預期的要明顯一些。

Inventory turns came in at 3.8, and that's flat with the prior quarter.

庫存周轉率為 3.8，與上一季度持平。

Cash from operations was $129 million or 12% of revenue.

運營現金為 1.29 億美元，佔收入的 12%。

This was up from $52 million in the September quarter.

這高於 9 月季度的 5200 萬美元。

Our operational cash generation was impacted by growth in accounts receivable.

我們的運營現金產生受到應收賬款增長的影響。

Over half of our quarterly shipments occurred in the month of December itself.

我們季度發貨的一半以上發生在 12 月本身。

This translated into less of our receivable balance being due before the end of the quarter.

這意味著我們在本季度末到期的應收賬款餘額減少了。

When business volumes are ramping, as we are today, it's typical to see growth in working capital, and we did see that.

當業務量激增時，就像我們今天一樣，營運資本的增長是很典型的，我們確實看到了這一點。

Our current quarter outlook for the March quarter reflects a much more linear shipment profile, and I expect operational cash flow to more closely approximate operating income next quarter.

我們當前對 3 月季度的季度展望反映了更加線性的出貨情況，我預計運營現金流將更接近下個季度的營業收入。

I thought I'd just mention, I expect 2014 will be a very strong year for Lam Research's cash generation.

我想我只是提一下，我預計 2014 年對於 Lam Research 的現金產生來說將是非常強勁的一年。

Company non-cash expenses include among other items, $23 million for equity comp, $41 million for amortization, and $33 million for depreciation.

公司的非現金支出包括2300萬美元的股權補償、4100萬美元的攤銷和3300萬美元的折舊。

In the quarter, we incurred $38 million for capital expenditures, and we exited the quarter with approximately 6,550 regular full-time employees.

在本季度，我們發生了 3800 萬美元的資本支出，本季度結束時，我們擁有大約 6,550 名正式全職員工。

Let me now turn to our guidance for the March 2014 quarter.

現在讓我談談我們對 2014 年 3 月季度的指導。

This is our non-GAAP guidance, I should point out.

我應該指出，這是我們的非公認會計準則指導。

We expect shipments of $1.250 billion, plus or minus $30 million, reflecting continued strength in the Memory segment and ongoing investments for 20-nanometer foundry capacity.

我們預計出貨量為 12.5 億美元，上下浮動 3,000 萬美元，反映了內存領域的持續強勁以及對 20 納米晶圓代工產能的持續投資。

We expect revenue of $1.215 billion, plus or minus $30 million.

我們預計收入為 12.15 億美元，上下浮動 3000 萬美元。

We currently expect higher customer concentration in the March quarter with nearly 80% of our system related sales derived from our top three customers versus approximately 60% in the December quarter.

我們目前預計 3 月季度的客戶集中度更高，我們系統相關銷售額的近 80% 來自我們的前三大客戶，而 12 月季度約為 60%。

We expect gross margin of 45%, plus or minus 1 percentage point.

我們預計毛利率為 45%，上下浮動 1 個百分點。

In the March quarter, we have a higher proportion of newly introduced etch and deposition products, which have a slightly negative impact on gross margin while those products are in the early phase of their ramp.

在 3 月季度，我們有更高比例的新推出的蝕刻和沈積產品，這對毛利率產生了輕微的負面影響，而這些產品還處於起步階段。

We forecast operating margins of 19.5%, plus or minus 1 percentage point.

我們預測營業利潤率為 19.5%，上下浮動 1 個百分點。

And finally, earnings per share of $1.15, plus or minus $0.05 based on a share count of approximately 173 million shares.

最後，每股收益為 1.15 美元，根據大約 1.73 億股的股票數量，正負 0.05 美元。

Operator, that concludes my prepared remarks.

接線員，我準備好的發言到此結束。

Martin and I would now be pleased to take your questions.

馬丁和我現在很樂意回答你的問題。

Harlan Sur, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的哈蘭蘇爾。

Hi, good afternoon.

你好，下午好。

Great job on the quarterly execution.

在季度執行方面做得很好。

On the 3D NAND side, I think the team has mentioned previously your views that it's predominantly one guy in the market this year.

在 3D NAND 方面，我認為團隊之前提到過您的觀點，即今年市場上主要是一個人。

I know of at least two of your memory customers that have recently talked about some 3D NAND activity later this year or early next year.

我知道至少有兩個內存客戶最近談到了今年晚些時候或明年初的一些 3D NAND 活動。

Just wondering if you're seeing this now in the product pipeline for the second half?

只是想知道您現在是否在下半年的產品管道中看到了這一點？

Thanks for your comment at the introduction there, Harlan.

謝謝你在介紹中的評論，哈蘭。

The answer to the question is, yes, we are.

問題的答案是，是的，我們是。

I expect still one customer to be the dominant emerging out of pilots to production and to the extent that other customers are investing in 3D NAND which we do expect, they're pilots oriented investments.

我預計仍然有一個客戶將成為從試點到生產的主導新興市場，並且在其他客戶投資 3D NAND 的情況下，我們確實期望，他們是以試點為導向的投資。

But it is more than a one-customer assumption set that's embedded in our $32 billion, correct.

但它不僅僅是嵌入在我們 320 億美元中的一個客戶假設集，這是正確的。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Then on your significant install base, your services business, how do you expect growth here relative to your overall business this year?

那麼在您的重要安裝基礎，您的服務業務方面，您預計今年相對於您的整體業務增長如何？

Industry utilizations, I would think are trending higher.

我認為行業利用率呈上升趨勢。

And then on top of that, what are some of the specific initiatives both top line and cost and expense fund that the team is going to be focused on this year with respect to services?

最重要的是，團隊今年在服務方面將重點關注的一些具體舉措是什麼？

I think on the utilization front, time will tell.

我認為在利用率方面，時間會證明一切。

Instinctively, I agree with the hypothesis of your question.

本能地，我同意你問題的假設。

But it's not as if with some rare exceptions utilization level are kind of low.

但這並不是說除了一些罕見的例外，利用率水平有點低。

They're pretty active.

他們很活躍。

Certainly in the memory space that's a true statement.

當然，在內存空間中，這是一個真實的陳述。

And I think the technology nodes, given the flexibility of the foundry community have, utilization, pretty high there as well.

而且我認為，考慮到代工社區的靈活性，技術節點的利用率也相當高。

To the extent utilization goes up, that's one source of growth.

在利用率上升的程度上，這是增長的來源之一。

Another source of growth is the install base of the Company.

另一個增長來源是公司的安裝基礎。

So there's a natural expansion of the growth consistent with the output of the Company.

因此，增長的自然擴張與公司的產量相一致。

You can see evidenced by our actual performance and forecast, we've got some nice momentum on outputs of systems into the install base and that bodes well for sustainable growth this year into next year.

您可以從我們的實際表現和預測中看到證明，我們在系統輸出到安裝基礎方面取得了一些不錯的勢頭，這預示著今年到明年的可持續增長。

As we talked about in our analyst meeting and a little bit in the last two earnings call, the install base business of the Company, the spares, the service, the upgrade, the training, the refurbishments are tremendous opportunities to contribute value to the customer, and that's been a core strength of the history of both Companies.

正如我們在分析師會議和最近兩次財報電話會議中談到的，公司的安裝基礎業務、備件、服務、升級、培訓、翻新是為客戶貢獻價值的巨大機會，這是兩家公司歷史上的核心優勢。

But I would say it is fair to characterize that we're reenergized around that today, in the context of responding to complex challenges from our customers to not just deliver technology but to deliver cost.

但我想說的是，在應對來自客戶的複雜挑戰的背景下，我們不僅要提供技術，還要提供成本，因此我們今天在這一點上重新煥發活力是公平的。

That's an opportunity for us to strengthen partnerships with our customers.

這是我們加強與客戶合作夥伴關係的機會。

Thank you, Martin.

謝謝你，馬丁。

Thanks for the question, Harlan.

謝謝你的問題，哈蘭。

Timothy Arcuri, Cowen and Company.

Timothy Arcuri，考恩公司。

Hi, thanks guys.

嗨，謝謝各位。

A couple things, relative to WFE for 2014, we're exiting December at the $33 billion run rate as an industry.

有幾件事，相對於 2014 年的 WFE，我們將在 12 月以 330 億美元的行業運行速度退出。

I'm not sure if you think that's the right number, but that's what I calculate.

我不確定您是否認為這是正確的數字，但這就是我計算的結果。

If the year's going to be $32 billion, I think you're saying, and if the first half is going to be better, does that imply that the year's going to be front half loaded?

如果今年將是 320 億美元，我想你是在說，如果上半年會更好，這是否意味著今年將是前半部分？

Or you just don't have visibility into the back half, and if it's better than the year would be higher than your $32 billion number?

或者你只是不了解後半部分，如果它比一年好，會高於你的 320 億美元數字？

I think as I said in my prepared comments, we obviously have less visibility in the second half than the first.

我認為正如我在準備好的評論中所說，我們在下半年的知名度顯然低於上半年。

But we do have some assumptions which are based in our $32 billion, and I think reasonable balance between first half and second half is an overall commentary I would offer for WFE in total.

但我們確實有一些基於我們 320 億美元的假設，我認為上半年和下半年之間的合理平衡是我對 WFE 的總體評論。

But I would say one segment that stands out in that picture is DRAM, where I think there is a higher profile of first half investment compared to the second.

但我想說，在這張照片中脫穎而出的一個細分市場是 DRAM，我認為與第二季度相比，上半年的投資更高。

I don't know if that's a 60/40, or a 55/45, or a 65/35, time will tell.

我不知道這是 60/40、55/45 還是 65/35，時間會證明一切。

But that is the segment which stands out, at least at this point, as being slightly more biased to the first half.

但這是突出的部分，至少在這一點上，因為對上半年的偏向略大。

Now, a lot of things could change in either direction, and clearly to the extent that prevails, that's an opportunity for Lam to outperform given memory concentration in the first half compared to the second half, as far as peer comparisons are concerned.

現在，很多事情都可能朝任何一個方向發生變化，而且很明顯，就目前的情況而言，鑑於上半場的記憶集中度與下半場相比，就同行比較而言，這對林來說是一個超越表現的機會。

Although as I said, I do expect out-performance in the calendar year, period.

儘管正如我所說，我確實希望在日曆年期間表現出色。

That's the best I can offer you at this point, Tim.

在這一點上，這是我能為你提供的最好的，蒂姆。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks a lot, Martin.

非常感謝，馬丁。

Then just as a second question, you had a pretty big quarter for NAND, obviously in December.

然後就像第二個問題，你有一個相當大的 NAND 季度，顯然是在 12 月。

Do you have a sense of what the shipment mix is going to look like in March?

您知道 3 月份的出貨組合會是什麼樣子嗎？

I would assume memory is going to be down a smidge and foundry's up, but can you give us a sense?

我認為內存會下降一點點而代工廠會上升，但你能給我們一個感覺嗎？

Thanks a lot.

非常感謝。

I think actually that we've got memory expansion in shipments December to March and foundry fairly stable.

我認為實際上我們在 12 月至 3 月的出貨量中實現了內存擴張，並且代工廠相當穩定。

That's exactly what we're expecting.

這正是我們所期待的。

Okay.

好的。

Awesome, guys.

太棒了，伙計們。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Patrick Ho, Stifel Nicolaus.

帕特里克·何，Stifel Nicolaus。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Likewise, congratulations on a great 2013.

同樣，祝賀 2013 年的偉大。

Martin, first in terms of big picture looking out over the next couple of years in terms of your market opportunities, with the continued delays in EEV, have you made any revisions to your target model in terms of both etch and deposition over the next few years, particularly as you look at 2015 and 2016, giving the push-outs that have occurred?

Martin，首先從大局來看，就您的市場機會而言，展望未來幾年的市場機會，隨著 EEV 的持續延遲，您是否在接下來的幾年中對您的目標模型在蝕刻和沈積方面進行了任何修改年，特別是當您查看 2015 年和 2016 年時，給出了已經發生的推出？

That's a good question.

這是個好問題。

Thank you for your comment at the beginning as well.

也感謝您在開始時的評論。

We have not chosen to revise the models for 2015 and 2016 yet.

我們尚未選擇修改 2015 年和 2016 年的模型。

I think clearly we would be looking for incremental opportunities to the baseline that we established if indeed the EEV picture as recently characterized plays out that way.

我認為顯然，如果最近描述的 EEV 情況確實如此，我們將尋找我們建立的基線的增量機會。

We've got a lot of time between now and then in terms of positioning for 7-nanometer logic, particularly and to the extent there's any interception of 10-nanometer.

從現在到那時，我們在 7 納米邏輯的定位方面有很多時間，特別是在 10 納米的攔截方面。

Frankly, 10-nanometer decisions are still out there in many respects as well.

坦率地說，10 納米的決定在許多方面仍然存在。

We haven't changed the model per se, but I would expect us to be chasing a broader set of opportunities as a result of this.

我們並沒有改變模型本身，但我希望我們會因此而追逐更廣泛的機會。

Great.

偉大的。

As a follow up to some of your prepared remarks about the DRAM opportunities, particularly for double patterning at 20-nanometers, you talked about the different layer opportunities that increase.

作為您對 DRAM 機會的一些準備評論的後續行動，特別是對於 20 納米的雙圖案化，您談到了增加的不同層機會。

Can you maybe go a little more specific in terms of where you see the greatest opportunities within etch, on a more granular detail, as well as the opportunities in deposition?

您能否更具體地說明您在蝕刻中看到最大機會的地方、更詳細的細節以及沉積機會？

Where specifically do you see the greatest incremental opportunities as you move to 20-nanometers for DRAM?

當您轉向 20 納米 DRAM 時，您在哪些方面看到了最大的增量機會？

Wow, that's really specific.

哇，這真的很具體。

One of the things I don't want to do, frankly, is get a little bit ahead of ourselves on the number of extra passes, which is the most tangible area of growth for us in the DRAM conversion.

坦率地說，我不想做的一件事是在額外通過的數量上領先一點，這是我們在 DRAM 轉換中最切實的增長領域。

Because I want to see more evidence of actually the emerging messages that I communicated today actually show up on a continuing basis.

因為我想看到更多關於我今天傳達的新信息實際上持續出現的證據。

But we're really focused on high aspect ratio opportunities.

但我們真正專注於高縱橫比的機會。

We're really focused, in the X space, we're focused on packaging and ALD with conformability and uniformity challenges being more significant in next generations.

我們真的很專注，在 X 領域，我們專注於封裝和 ALD，一致性和一致性挑戰在下一代中變得更加重要。

That's the area for us.

這就是我們的區域。

It's all about inflections, and it's all about emerging technologies to support narrowing requirements on process window.

一切都與變化有關，一切都與新興技術有關，以支持對工藝窗口的縮小要求。

They're tough to deal with.

他們很難對付。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Thanks, Patrick.

謝謝，帕特里克。

Jim Covello, Goldman Sachs.

吉姆·科維羅，高盛。

Great, guys.

太好了，伙計們。

Thanks so much and congratulations on the good results.

非常感謝並祝賀取得的好成績。

Martin, just a clarification first, you said memory up 10% to 20% this year, that was including both DRAM and NAND?

Martin，首先澄清一下，你說內存今年增長了 10% 到 20%，包括 DRAM 和 NAND？

Yes.

是的。

Any chance of giving us a breakdown in terms of how you think each of those markets grows this year?

有沒有機會就您認為每個市場今年的增長情況給我們一個細分？

Indeed, I could probably give you some reference on that.

確實，我可能會給你一些參考。

If you have a follow-up question, why don't you ask that first, and I'll do a little bit of research while you're --

如果你有一個後續問題，你為什麼不先問這個，我會在你做一些研究的時候——

Sure.

當然。

The follow-up would be, understanding your comment about 60% of the business coming from the top three in December and 80% from the top three in March, within NAND specifically, is the remainder of the 40% and 20%, respectively, are there other NAND players in there as well?

後續行動將是，了解您對 60% 的業務來自 12 月的前三名和 3 月的前三名的 80% 的評論，特別是在 NAND 中，分別是 40% 和 20% 的其餘部分，那裡還有其他 NAND 播放器嗎？

Or is NAND very top-heavy loaded?

還是NAND非常頭重腳輕？

There are only so many players obviously in the NAND space.

顯然，在 NAND 領域只有這麼多玩家。

The mixture of spending has three components to it.

支出的混合包含三個組成部分。

It has a 3D investment, which in 2014 is different than 2013 by virtue of more people engaged in a pilot line space so that's one investment type.

它有一個3D投資，2014年和2013年不同，因為更多的人參與了試驗線空間，所以這是一種投資類型。

Another investment type is whatever additions are going to be made in the context of a remaining planer investments.

另一種投資類型是在剩餘刨床投資的背景下進行的任何增加。

And then a significant investment in NAND flash comes from conversions.

然後對 NAND 閃存的重大投資來自轉換。

That's obviously a planer dominant conversation for the customer.

對於客戶來說，這顯然是一個平面主導的對話。

If I looked at additions, I would say the additions via 3D NAND and if I looked to upgrades, it's all about planer investments.

如果我查看添加，我會說通過 3D NAND 進行添加，如果我查看升級，這完全是關於平面投資。

And I would not expect this year to be the year where all in 3D is the majority of NAND's investment.

而且我預計今年不會是 3D 成為 NAND 投資主要的一年。

If I look at the sum of additions and upgrades and conversions, I would say calendar year 2014 is getting closer, but it's still likely to be a plainer majority year.

如果我看一下添加、升級和轉換的總和，我會說 2014 日曆年越來越近，但它仍然可能是一個更普通的多數年份。

The answer to your first question is obviously the baseline for NAND's WFE in 2013 is a little higher than DRAM.

你第一個問題的答案顯然是 NAND 的 WFE 在 2013 年的基線比 DRAM 高一點。

We assume about $6 billion for NAND last year and $5 billion or so for DRAM.

我們假設去年 NAND 約為 60 億美元，DRAM 約為 50 億美元。

I believe there's about a billion dollars or so of growth in NANDs year-over-year, and frankly something similar to that level in DRAM as well.

我相信 NAND 的年增長率約為 10 億美元左右，坦率地說，與 DRAM 的增長水平相似。

So reasonably equal growth increments, slightly different baseline.

因此，增長增量相當相等，基線略有不同。

Very helpful.

非常有幫助。

Thank you, good luck.

謝謝你，祝你好運。

John Pitzer, Credit Suisse.

約翰·皮策，瑞士信貸。

Congratulations, thanks for letting me ask the question.

恭喜，謝謝你讓我問這個問題。

I guess my first question, you talked about two dampening impacts to gross margin in the March quarter, new product ramps and customer concentrations.

我想我的第一個問題是，您談到了對 3 月季度毛利率的兩個抑制影響，即新產品的增加和客戶集中度。

I'm curious if you can help me quantify what kind of hit those two dynamics are having in the March quarter, and how we should think about those dynamics throughout the year as we think about gross margins?

我很好奇您是否可以幫助我量化這兩種動態在 3 月季度受到的影響，以及我們在考慮毛利率時應該如何考慮全年的這些動態？

Yes, I'm guiding you down -- John, this is Doug -- 80 basis points from what we just delivered.

是的，我在引導你——約翰，我是道格——比我們剛剛交付的內容差了 80 個基點。

I'm not going to quantify the specific impact of each of those, but they both contribute, obviously, offset a little bit by slightly higher volumes.

我不打算量化每一個的具體影響，但顯然，它們都貢獻了一點點，稍微高了一點。

But as I tried to indicate, the volume bit is getting to be less and less important because we're running the factories pretty full right now.

但正如我試圖指出的那樣，體積位變得越來越不重要，因為我們現在的工廠運行得非常滿。

The upside from that is less today than it has been in the past.

今天的好處比過去少。

Yes, and I would add I think an important point relative to the interpretation of the financial models.

是的，我想補充一點，與金融模型的解釋有關。

If you go back to what we presented at SEMICON West last calendar year, we had a 2013/2014 model and a 2015/2016 model.

如果你回到我們去年在 SEMICON West 上展示的內容，我們有一個 2013/2014 模型和一個 2015/2016 模型。

The fact that we had two models was intended to be important because it does take time as well as volume to execute cost reduction plans in terms of developing new products for lower cost profiles, et cetera, et cetera.

我們有兩個模型的事實很重要，因為在開發成本更低的新產品等方面，執行成本降低計劃確實需要時間和數量。

And it does take time to execute and implement strategic plans to improve the performance of the Company, however good we are in terms of competence and capability and execution.

執行和實施戰略計劃以提高公司業績確實需要時間，無論我們在能力、能力和執行力方面有多好。

The 2013 and 2014 model had a 45% place holder and within reason that's a great place to be in terms of kind of modeling.

2013 年和 2014 年的模型有 45% 的佔位符，並且在合理的範圍內，就建模而言，這是一個很好的地方。

And just occasionally we're going to pop up above it as we did in December.

只是偶爾我們會像去年 12 月那樣彈出它。

Maybe just occasionally we pop below it.

也許只是偶爾我們會跳到它下面。

It's much less about volume at this point.

在這一點上，音量要少得多。

We need time to get us through this period of the penetrations on the inflections so we come out of the gates.

我們需要時間讓我們度過這段對拐點的滲透期，所以我們走出了大門。

You launch a new product.

你推出一個新產品。

It's usually at its lowest profitability point in that first six months to one-year time horizon.

它通常在前六個月到一年的時間範圍內處於最低盈利點。

The inflections are becoming a greater proportion of the output of the Company.

拐點在公司產出中所佔的比例越來越大。

And 2015 and 2016 is a great place holder for when the majority of that inflection and the majority of the new products associated with it, which should be firing on all cylinders from a cost point of view at that point, have their impact on the Company.

2015 年和 2016 年是一個很好的佔位符，因為從成本的角度來看，大多數拐點和與之相關的大多數新產品應該在所有氣缸上燃燒，對公司產生影響.

I'd ask that you all think through, not just the volume, but the time lines that were defined in the models that we communicated last year.

我希望你們都仔細考慮，不僅僅是數量，還有我們去年溝通的模型中定義的時間線。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

Martin, as my follow up, I appreciate the detail as always.

Martin，作為我的後續工作，我一如既往地欣賞細節。

As we think account UV getting pushed out, I think one of the things that we're seeing is the chip companies are getting more efficient on multipatterning.

當我們認為帳戶 UV 被推出時，我認為我們看到的一件事是芯片公司在多模式方面的效率越來越高。

The largest foundry guy was not expecting a density improvement at 2016.

最大的代工廠商並沒有預料到 2016 年的密度會提高。

Now he's talking about it, the largest logic guy is talking about being able to stay on Moore's law even without a UV for a lot longer than we thought.

現在他正在談論它，最大的邏輯人正在談論即使沒有紫外線也能夠保持摩爾定律比我們想像的要長得多。

I guess my question to you is I'm trying to understand, if they learn to be more efficient with multipatterning does that actually take market opportunity away from you?

我想我的問題是我試圖理解，如果他們學會更高效地使用多模式，這是否真的會奪走你的市場機會？

Or are they becoming more efficient because of what you're providing?

或者他們是否因為你提供的東西而變得更有效率？

I'm sure all of the above is the answer to that question.

我確信以上所有內容都是該問題的答案。

I mean the perpetual challenge in this industry is bringing technology to the customer at lower costs, bringing capacity and output to the customer at lower cost.

我的意思是，這個行業的永恆挑戰是以更低的成本為客戶帶來技術，以更低的成本為客戶帶來產能和產出。

I am sure and hope quite frankly that we're enabling not just technology road maps for customers but cost reduction road maps for customers because I think we all recognize the complexity of our customers' industry and our customers' customers' industry for that matter.

坦率地說，我確信並希望我們不僅為客戶提供技術路線圖，還為客戶提供降低成本的路線圖，因為我認為我們都認識到客戶行業和客戶行業的複雜性。

We have to run Lam Research with a long-term perspective in mind.

我們必須以長遠的眼光來經營 Lam Research。

So I always think it is very artificial to try and bias performance in the short-term by not delivering solutions to the customers that in the long-term will allow them to be most successful.

因此，我一直認為，通過不向客戶提供長期來看能夠讓他們獲得最大成功的解決方案來試圖在短期內影響績效是非常人為的。

I'm sure we're part of enabling and indeed the customer by virtue of consolidation and influence over the equipment industry brings it back to the table as well.

我敢肯定，我們是支持的一部分，實際上，憑藉對設備行業的整合和影響，客戶也將其帶回了桌面。

Thanks, guys.

多謝你們。

Stephen Chin, UBS.

瑞銀的斯蒂芬·欽。

Thanks, just one follow up question on WFE.

謝謝，只有一個關於 WFE 的後續問題。

If the industry spends more than your initial view of $32 billion, where do you think the upside would come from?

如果該行業的支出超過您最初預期的 320 億美元，您認為上漲空間來自哪裡？

Do you think it would be higher foundry, or would it be on the memory side?

你認為它會是更高的代工，還是會在內存方面？

I think it's a couple of things.

我認為這是幾件事。

It is a demand story, so I don't think $32 billion is the most aggressive view of GDP and consumer confidence.

這是一個需求故事，所以我認為 320 億美元並不是 GDP 和消費者信心最激進的觀點。

If that trended up, I think there's a little bit of upside there.

如果趨勢上升，我認為那裡有一點上漲空間。

The other part of it, to your point frankly, is emerging evidence of cost and performance benefits of inflection-led device transition.

坦率地說，它的另一部分是變化主導的設備過渡的成本和性能優勢的新證據。

If the industry sees cost and/or performance benefits, I guess the industry of our customers' customers sees the benefits, then there's likely to be an acceleration, if history is a relevant indicator of our future.

如果行業看到成本和/或性能優勢，我猜我們客戶的客戶的行業看到了收益，那麼如果歷史是我們未來的相關指標，那麼可能會出現加速。

What the probability of that is at this point, I have no idea, which is why I give you $32 billion, plus or minus $2 billion.

目前這種可能性有多大，我不知道，這就是為什麼我給你 320 億美元，上下浮動 20 億美元。

Yes.

是的。

Okay, and it wouldn't be like memory over foundry, if there was some upside?

好吧，如果有一些好處，它不會像代工廠的內存？

I wouldn't characterize one way or the other at this point, which one I thought was more likely to happen.

在這一點上，我不會描述一種或另一種方式，我認為哪種方式更有可能發生。

There are clearly independent variables on the supply side.

供應方面顯然存在獨立變量。

They're very dependent on the demand side, so I don't know.

他們非常依賴需求方，所以我不知道。

It could go either way.

它可以去任何一種方式。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Krish Sankar, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

美銀美林的 Krish Sankar。

Yes, hi.

是的，你好。

Thanks for taking my question and congrats on the good results, guys.

感謝您提出我的問題，並祝賀取得了良好的結果，伙計們。

Martin, I had two questions.

馬丁，我有兩個問題。

Number one, in terms of the 3D NAND on the etch side, is your market share similar or better or lower compared to [cleaner] NAND?

第一，就蝕刻方面的 3D NAND 而言，與 [更清潔的] NAND 相比，您的市場份額是相似還是更好或更低？

It's at least as good, and I would expect in some of the selection spaces slightly better.

它至少一樣好，我希望在某些選擇空間中稍微好一點。

Got it.

知道了。

That's very helpful.

這很有幫助。

Then, one other question, in terms of your industry outlook, you said that you're seeing a lot of reuse of equipment on the logic side which is not a big surprise.

然後，另一個問題，就您的行業前景而言，您說您在邏輯方面看到了很多設備的重用，這並不令人意外。

The question I was trying to find out is are you seeing with capital intensity the foundries still very high?

我試圖找出的問題是，您是否看到代工廠的資本密集度仍然很高？

Are you seeing more reuse tendencies from the foundry customers, or do you think it's going to happen going forward?

您是否從代工廠客戶那裡看到了更多的重用趨勢，或者您認為它會在未來發生嗎？

I think it will be an emerging trend.

我認為這將是一個新興趨勢。

I think it's a very hard thing to execute and at some level the need and the expectations for it are obviously embedded in the numbers we've given you on WFE.

我認為這是一件非常難以執行的事情，並且在某種程度上，對它的需求和期望顯然包含在我們在 WFE 上為您提供的數字中。

But I think the economic realities of scaling for the foundries make it much more important than ever.

但我認為代工廠規模化的經濟現實使其比以往任何時候都更加重要。

And the challenge obviously is if they have sustaining commitments from their customers so the legacy geometry is however they free up the capacity to make it happen on scale.

顯然，挑戰在於他們是否有來自客戶的持續承諾，因此傳統的幾何結構是他們釋放了大規模實現它的能力。

So I think it shows up more how big it ultimately is.

所以我認為它更多地顯示了它最終有多大。

I think time will tell.

我認為時間會證明一切。

Thanks, Martin.

謝謝，馬丁。

Mehdi Hosseini, SIG.

Mehdi Hosseini，SIG。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

The first one is for Doug.

第一個是給道格的。

Do you have any plans to help increase the cash on shore as a means to increase shareholder return?

您是否有任何計劃來幫助增加岸上現金以增加股東回報？

Mehdi, I've described our approach to cash as we've got a plan in place at least through 2014 which is the $250 million buyback authorization.

Mehdi，我已經描述了我們的現金方式，因為我們已經制定了至少到 2014 年的計劃，即 2.5 億美元的回購授權。

Yes, we're always looking at opportunities and whether there could be more cash brought on shore.

是的，我們一直在尋找機會，以及是否可以帶來更多的現金。

The guidance I've provided is roughly 20% of the prospective cash, we generate is onshore.

我提供的指導大約是我們在境內產生的預期現金的 20%。

We may be able to tick that up a little bit.

我們也許可以稍微增加一點。

In fact, I think we will.

事實上，我認為我們會的。

We're always looking at a couple of different things.

我們總是在看幾個不同的東西。

And we'll communicate with you year-by-year or quarter-by-quarter, as we work our way through this authorization what the concrete plans of the Company are as we go forward.

我們將逐年或逐季度與您溝通，因為我們通過這項授權工作，公司在我們前進的具體計劃是什麼。

My brief follow up is for Martin.

我的簡短跟進是針對馬丁的。

Do you have any market intelligence, especially from downstream players to help us understand the application for 3D NAND use, especially with the 80,000 to 100,000 wafer per month capacity that you were referring to?

您是否有任何市場情報，尤其是來自下游參與者的市場情報，以幫助我們了解 3D NAND 使用的應用，尤其是您所指的每月 80,000 至 100,000 片晶圓的產能？

I think we do, but I'm going to reserve the right to keep that to ourselves and respect the interest of our customers.

我認為我們這樣做了，但我將保留將其保留給我們自己並尊重客戶利益的權利。

Can you talk around it, or qualitatively talk about some of the general use of the 3D NAND?

你能談談它，或者定性地談談 3D NAND 的一些一般用途嗎？

I know you don't like me doing this, but I am going to resist it because I feel like we put a lot of information out and just occasionally I've got to stay honest to protect some of what we spend lots of time building, which is relationships with customers and customers' customers, so that we have a good sense of where the industry's headed.

我知道你不喜歡我這樣做，但我會抵制它，因為我覺得我們發布了很多信息，只是偶爾我必須保持誠實以保護我們花費大量時間構建的一些內容，即與客戶和客戶的客戶的關係，使我們對行業的發展方向有一個很好的了解。

You're saying that this 80,000 to 100,000 will be installed by September, so the shipment would start by December, is that right?

你說這80,000到100,000將在9月份安裝，所以12月份開始發貨，對嗎？

No, it's statement of physical shipments to customers, by the end of the calendar year, that is the number I gave you.

不，這是在日曆年年底之前向客戶實際發貨的聲明，這是我給你的數字。

I say that because the Korean customers have both told us that --

我這麼說是因為韓國客戶都告訴我們——

Mehdi, we're going to move on here now.

Mehdi，我們現在要繼續前進。

Could we get the next question, please.

請問下一個問題可以嗎？

Mahesh Sanganeria, RBC.

Mahesh Sanganeria，RBC。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Martin, a question on the foundries, the linearity of 20-nanometer NAND.

Martin，關於代工廠的一個問題，20 納米 NAND 的線性度。

You talked about the NAND base is dependent on the availability of the technology.

您談到的 NAND 基礎取決於技術的可用性。

Where do you think the 20- and 14-, 16-nanometer are in terms of readiness, and from that what can you tell us about the RAM profile of these technologies?

您認為 20 納米和 14 納米、16 納米的準備情況如何，您能告訴我們這些技術的 RAM 配置文件嗎？

I think back to my earlier statements, the assumption that we're making today, based on our conversations with customers and our own modeling is that foundry is a reasonably stable year.

我回想我之前的陳述，基於我們與客戶的對話和我們自己的模型，我們今天所做的假設是，代工是相當穩定的一年。

It's going to have obviously a majority form 20-nanometer the first half, and 14-nanometer and 16-nanometer emerges in the second half as kind of pilot lines.

顯然，上半年將佔多數，下半年將出現 14 納米和 16 納米作為試點線。

You're going to see a different node of spending in the calendar year.

您將在日曆年看到不同的支出節點。

And if nothing changes in terms of commitments to the customers' customer to FinFET devices then the race by the foundry to get whatever early share of momentum is available, tends to suggest a pretty convicted spending to that plan.

如果對客戶的客戶對 FinFET 器件的承諾沒有任何變化，那麼代工廠為獲得任何早期可用的動力份額而進行的競賽，往往表明該計劃的支出相當大。

I don't think this is the year where that 14 to 16 investment is particularly subject to risk on yield because it will be too early.

我認為今年 14 到 16 年的投資不會特別受到收益風險的影響，因為現在還為時過早。

It's not enough.

這不夠。

It'll be a much more relevant conversation in calendar 2015, 14-nanometer, 16-nanometer yields aren't where the customers want it to be, yet I'm sure that'll be relevant to the pace of the add capacity.

這將是 2015 年日曆中更相關的對話，14 納米、16 納米的產量並不是客戶想要的，但我相信這與增加產能的步伐有關。

But I don't see that as being a particularly big factor in calendar 2014.

但我不認為這是 2014 年日曆中特別重要的因素。

Okay.

好的。

That's very helpful, and then you made comments regarding space [of base] double patterning driving ALD.

這非常有幫助，然後您就空間 [基礎] 雙圖案驅動 ALD 發表了評論。

My question is, is there a significant adoption of space [of base] double patterning in the DRAM and the logic devices?

我的問題是，在 DRAM 和邏輯器件中是否大量採用了 [基礎] 雙重圖案化空間？

NAND is 100% space to double pattern, but are you seeing a lot of interests from DRAM as well as logic devices?

NAND 是雙模式的 100% 空間，但您是否看到 DRAM 和邏輯器件引起了很多興趣？

DRAM, yes.

DRAM，是的。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

You're welcome.

別客氣。

Ben Pang, Northland Capital Markets.

Ben Pang，北國資本市場。

Thank you for taking my questions.

謝謝你接受我的問題。

In terms of the reuse, can you characterize the amount of reuse for your equipment, 28- to 20-nanometer, 20-nanometer to FinFET, and split that between etch and CVD?

在重複使用方面，您能否描述設備的重複使用量，28 到 20 納米，20 納米到 FinFET，並在蝕刻和 CVD 之間劃分？

You'll need to ask that question again because you were breaking out.

你需要再次問這個問題，因為你正在爆發。

Sorry.

對不起。

If you look at the equipment reuse between 28-nanometer foundry logic and 20-nanometer, and similarly 20- to 16- or 14-nanometer FinFET, what's the difference in the amount of your equipment that can be reused?

如果您查看 28 納米晶圓代工邏輯和 20 納米之間的設備重用，以及類似的 20 到 16 或 14 納米 FinFET，那麼您可以重用的設備數量有什麼區別？

And is there a difference between etch and CVD?

蝕刻和CVD之間有區別嗎？

Okay.

好的。

The etch and CVD conversation's a little bit premature for me to have.

蝕刻和 CVD 對話對我來說有點為時過早。

The first one, the first piece of it's a little difficult, but the best I could give you probably is that I think in general the equipment sets for 20-nanometer generally is much more overlapping with a 14- and 16-nanometer equipment set than was true for 28- to 20-nanometer.

第一個，第一部分有點困難，但我能給你的最好的可能是我認為一般來說 20 納米的設備組通常與 14 和 16 納米設備組的重疊比對於 28 到 20 納米來說是正確的。

I would say intuitively it would seem there are more opportunities for reuse 20- to 14-, 16-nanometer than existed 28- to 20-nanometer.

我會直觀地說，與現有的 28 至 20 納米相比，重用 20 至 14、16 納米的機會似乎更多。

Now that's a line availability statement or ease of transition.

現在這是一條線路可用性聲明或易於過渡。

That doesn't take off the table the challenge I described a little earlier which is if you've got demand from a customer, and you have legacy demand for some years, how do you free enough capacity to go do it?

這並沒有消除我之前描述的挑戰，即如果您有客戶的需求，並且您有多年的遺留需求，您如何釋放足夠的容量來完成它？

But intuitively, I think that the reuse opportunity for the foundry is greater 20- to 14-, 16-nanometer, presuming you have 20 investments of a sufficient amount than was true at 28- to 20-nanometer.

但直觀地說，我認為鑄造廠的再利用機會更多的是 20 到 14 和 16 納米，假設你有 20 筆足夠數量的投資，而不是 28 到 20 納米。

Okay.

好的。

My follow up is you talked a little bit about the customer concentration.

我的後續行動是你談到了客戶集中度。

For 2014 calendar year, do you expect the same concentration as 2013?

對於 2014 日曆年，您預計與 2013 年相同的濃度嗎？

No, I actually think it'll be a little bit less.

不，我實際上認為它會少一點。

The March quarter is pretty concentrated.

三月季度相當集中。

I think the whole year is actually going to be the same or maybe even a little bit less than 2014 relative to 2013.

我認為相對於 2013 年，全年實際上將與 2014 年相同，甚至可能比 2014 年少一點。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Edwin Mok, Needham and Company.

Edwin Mok，Needham and Company。

Thanks for taking my question, and also congrats for a good quarter.

感謝您提出我的問題，也祝賀您取得了良好的季度表現。

The first question regarding (inaudible) on your foundry WFE outlook for 10% to 20%.

第一個問題是關於（聽不清）您的代工 WFE 前景為 10% 到 20%。

I was wondering how much of that comes from increased capital intensity in the foundry versus broadening of customer base?

我想知道其中有多少來自鑄造廠資本密集度的增加與客戶群的擴大？

We heard from one of your peers talking about (inaudible) order push-out at the foundry side.

我們從您的一位同行那裡聽說過代工廠方面的（聽不清）訂單推送。

I was wondering if that had an effect on how you think about foundry outlook for this year?

我想知道這是否會影響您對今年鑄造業前景的看法？

I don't think the dollars invested in 14- and 16- will be as high as 20-nanometer in the calendar year.

我認為在 14 和 16 的投資在日曆年不會高達 20 納米。

That's the assumption that we have at this point.

這就是我們目前的假設。

And we have said and we're much more able to speak to this for deposition, etch, and clean than we are wafer fab as a whole, but we've sized the increments in [fam] to the 5% to 10% level for the comparison of final generation play in our first generation FinFET for foundry.

我們已經說過，與我們作為一個整體的晶圓廠相比，我們在沉積、蝕刻和清潔方面更有能力談論這一點，但我們已經將 [fam] 的增量調整到 5% 到 10% 的水平用於比較我們用於代工的第一代 FinFET 中的最後一代播放。

That's the best I can give you on capital intensity.

這是我能給你的最好的資本密集度。

I see.

我懂了。

Okay.

好的。

That's fair, and then I think you mentioned about one of the largest service contractors you signed on the quarter, and how you focused on the service area.

這是公平的，然後我認為您提到了您在本季度簽署的最大的服務承包商之一，以及您如何專注於服務領域。

Any way you can quantify how much of your business is service right now?

你有什麼方法可以量化你現在有多少業務是服務？

How do you think that will transpire as we look beyond this year, let's say 2015, 2016?

當我們展望今年之後，比如 2015 年、2016 年，你認為這將如何發展？

Do you expect greater growth in that area and any metric to measure that?

您是否期望該領域有更大的增長以及任何衡量標準？

Yes, I think actually we gave a pretty good shot at answering that question in the analyst meeting at SEMICON West last year, so I'd refer you back to the July 9 presentation.

是的，我認為實際上我們在去年 SEMICON West 的分析師會議上回答了這個問題非常好，所以我建議您回到 7 月 9 日的演示文稿。

There's more substance there than we have time for today.

那裡的內容比我們今天的時間要多。

Just so we're not confused, it's not just a service play.

只是為了讓我們不會感到困惑，這不僅僅是一場服務比賽。

It's an upgrade play.

是升級遊戲。

It's an install base utilization play.

這是一個安裝基礎利用率的遊戲。

It's a reliability play.

這是一個可靠性遊戲。

It's training.

是訓練。

It's everything that's available to us as an equipment Company supporting our customers' install base and improvement expectations.

作為支持客戶安裝基礎和改進預期的設備公司，這是我們可用的一切。

Service is one part of that, but it's not a growth plan limited to service.

服務是其中的一部分，但它不是僅限於服務的增長計劃。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Operator, I think we have time for two more questions.

接線員，我想我們還有時間再問兩個問題。

Terence Whalen, Citi.

花旗銀行的特倫斯·惠倫。

Hi, great.

嗨，太好了。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

Actually two quick ones.

實際上是兩個快速的。

First, you gave the 80,000 to 100,000 NAND installed capacity by the end of 2014.

首先，您在 2014 年底之前提供了 80,000 到 100,000 的 NAND 裝機容量。

Can you just help us understand what that number was end of 2013?

您能幫我們了解一下 2013 年底的數字嗎？

I think we had like 20,000 to 25,000 as the communication at the end of last year.

我想我們在去年年底有大約 20,000 到 25,000 人作為通訊。

I think we said 20,000, Terence.

我想我們說的是 20,000，特倫斯。

Okay.

好的。

Terrific.

了不起。

The second question's on customer concentration.

第二個問題是關於客戶集中度的。

Starting at 80% in the first quarter, it implies a pretty sharp broadening in the second half of customer shipments.

從第一季度的 80% 開始，這意味著下半年客戶出貨量將大幅擴大。

Can you just explain to me how you expect that to develop sequentially, and again remind us what 2013 was?

您能否向我解釋一下您希望它如何按順序發展，並再次提醒我們 2013 年是什麼？

And I ask that because with the context of understanding whether conviction in those shipments and the timing and assurance of those shipments is higher or lower than with the larger customers.

我之所以這樣問，是因為在了解這些貨物的信念以及這些貨物的時間和保證是否高於或低於大客戶的背景下。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yes, Terence, I think the most concentrated quarter is going to be the March quarter.

是的，特倫斯，我認為最集中的季度將是三月季度。

I'm not going to get into the specifics of each quarter after that because things move around, but it'll broaden out our view as we get through the remaining quarters.

在那之後，我不會詳細介紹每個季度的細節，因為事情會發生變化，但隨著我們度過剩餘的季度，它會拓寬我們的視野。

I don't know, to the soft part of your question, is it a higher risk or lower risk to have more people participating?

我不知道，對於你問題的軟性部分，讓更多的人參與是更高的風險還是更低的風險？

Who the hell knows.

誰他媽知道。

I tend to feel that the reasons for more people investing, and there are more reasons around technology inflections inherently have more conviction than generic capacity additions.

我傾向於認為，更多人投資的原因，以及圍繞技術變化的更多原因，本質上比一般產能增加更有說服力。

So I actually feel pretty good about that.

所以我實際上對此感覺很好。

I also feel like the environments that supply and demand balance and the fact that we come into the year pretty tight, the fact that pricing levels for memory, the fact that the profitability levels for semiconductor companies generally is, maybe they would argue not as good as they'd like it to be, but it's far better than it has been.

我也覺得供需平衡的環境以及我們今年非常緊張的事實，內存的定價水平，半導體公司的盈利水平普遍存在的事實，也許他們會說沒有那麼好正如他們希望的那樣，但它比以前好得多。

I tend to feel better about it.

我傾向於對此感覺更好。

I do think that you should -- we should, continue to expect variability quarter-to-quarter.

我確實認為您應該 - 我們應該繼續預期季度間的變化。

It is really hard to predict the output of these companies when two to three to four guys can represent everything about the performance of your Company.

當兩到三到四個人可以代表貴公司業績的一切時，真的很難預測這些公司的產出。

One guy moves left or right, and you've got a different picture.

一個人向左或向右移動，你就會得到不同的畫面。

We've kept our ranges pretty narrow on our guidance, and we'll keep them that way as long as we feel like we can manage it.

我們的指導範圍非常狹窄，只要我們覺得我們可以管理它，我們就會保持這種方式。

But I would say it's getting much more difficult to manage variability of individual customer movements than ever before.

但我想說，管理個人客戶流動的可變性比以往任何時候都困難得多。

Congrats.

恭喜。

Best of luck.

祝你好運。

Vishal Shah, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的維沙爾·沙阿。

Hi, this is Chad Dillard on the line for Vishal.

嗨，我是 Chad Dillard 接聽 Vishal 的電話。

From an energy perspective, can you talk about how you see the amount of 20-nanometer being installed for 2014 from a wafer start perspective?

從能源的角度，您能談談您如何從晶圓開始的角度看待 2014 年安裝的 20 納米的數量嗎？

Yes, given the concentration to a couple of customers I'm going to resist that level of specificity.

是的，考慮到對幾個客戶的關注，我將抵制那種程度的特異性。

As I said, I do expect maybe you've got to triangulate a little here.

正如我所說，我確實希望您可能需要在這裡進行一些三角測量。

We are forecasting in the range of $13 billion, $14 billion of WFE.

我們預測 WFE 在 130 億美元、140 億美元的範圍內。

The public commentary and analyst commentary on 20-nanometer costs is approximately, $1.25 billion, $1.3 billion per 10,000 wafer starts addition.

公眾評論和分析師對 20 納米成本的評論約為 12.5 億美元，每 10,000 片晶圓開始添加 13 億美元。

I said I expect the 20-nanometer addition is greater than the 14- and 16-nanometer addition.

我說我預計 20 納米的添加量大於 14 和 16 納米的添加量。

I think if you work with those data points, you're going to find out a pretty reliable answer to your question.

我認為，如果您使用這些數據點，您會為您的問題找到一個非常可靠的答案。

Great.

偉大的。

Maybe you could just unpack the foundry shipment, a number in December.

也許你可以打開代工發貨的包裝，12 月的一個數字。

What was the mix of 20-nanometer versus the rest?

20 納米與其他的混合是什麼？

That's disclosure above and beyond what we have customarily done.

這超出了我們通常所做的披露。

I'm sorry.

對不起。

Got it.

知道了。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Operator.

操作員。

Thank you, and I would like to turn it back over to Management for closing remarks.

謝謝你，我想把它交還給管理層以結束髮言。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Wonderful.

精彩的。

We truly wish to thank you all for spending the last hour or so here with us today.

我們真誠地感謝大家今天和我們一起度過了最後一個小時左右。

As a reminder, a webcast replay of this call will be available later this afternoon on our website.

提醒一下，今天下午晚些時候將在我們的網站上提供此次電話會議的網絡重播。

On behalf of the entire Management team, we appreciate your interest in Lam Research.

我們代表整個管理團隊感謝您對 Lam Research 的興趣。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude our conference for today.

女士們先生們，今天的會議到此結束。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連接。