摩根大通 (JPM) 2021 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to JPMorgan Chase's First Quarter 2021 Earnings Call. This call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) We will now go live to the presentation. Please stand by.

早上好，女士們，先生們。歡迎參加摩根大通 2021 年第一季度財報電話會議。正在錄製此通話。 （操作員說明）我們現在將進行演示。請待命。

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to JPMorgan Chase's Chairman and CEO, Jamie Dimon; and Chief Financial Officer, Jennifer Piepszak. Ms. Piepszak, please go ahead.

在這個時候，我想把電話轉給摩根大通的董事長兼首席執行官傑米戴蒙；和首席財務官詹妮弗·皮普扎克。 Piepszak 女士，請繼續。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone. I'll take you through the presentation, which, as always, is available on our website, and we ask that you please refer to the disclaimer at the back.

謝謝你，接線員。大家，早安。我將帶您完成演示文稿，該演示文稿一如既往地在我們的網站上提供，我們要求您參考後面的免責聲明。

Starting on Page 1. The firm reported net income of $14.3 billion, EPS of $4.50 on revenue of $33.1 billion and delivered a return on tangible common equity of 29%. Included in these results are 2 significant items: $5.2 billion of net credit reserve releases, which I'll cover in more detail shortly; and a $550 million contribution to the firm's foundation in the form of equity investments.

從第 1 頁開始。該公司報告的淨收入為 143 億美元，每股收益為 4.50 美元，收入為 331 億美元，有形普通股的回報率為 29%。這些結果包括兩個重要項目：52 億美元的淨信貸儲備釋放，我將在稍後更詳細地介紹；並以股權投資的形式向公司基金會捐款 5.5 億美元。

Touching on a few highlights. We saw another strong quarter in CIB. In fact, net income was an all-time record with IB fees up 57% year-on-year, reflecting continued robust activity, and markets up 25% year-on-year as the environment remained favorable in January and February, although it did start to normalize in March.

談到幾個亮點。我們看到 CIB 又一個強勁的季度。事實上，淨收入創下歷史新高，IB 費用同比增長 57%，反映出活動持續強勁，由於 1 月和 2 月環境仍然有利，市場同比增長 25%，儘管確實在三月份開始正常化。

In AWM, we had record net long-term inflows of $48 billion this quarter. And deposits of $2.2 trillion were up 36% year-on-year and 5% sequentially as the Fed balance sheet continues to expand. But loan growth remains muted, up 1% year-on-year and 2% quarter-on-quarter with the bright spots being AWM and secured lending in CIB.

在 AWM，我們本季度的長期淨流入達到創紀錄的 480 億美元。隨著美聯儲資產負債表的不斷擴大，2.2 萬億美元的存款同比增長 36%，環比增長 5%。但貸款增長仍然疲軟，同比增長 1%，環比增長 2%，亮點是 AWM 和 CIB 的擔保貸款。

On to Page 2 for more detail on our results. When looking at this quarter's performance, there's a lot of noise in the year-on-year comparisons, particularly given what happened in March of last year. And so it's important to remember a few key points here about March of 2020. Effectively, investment banking activity stopped or got delayed, except for investment-grade debt issuance. We recorded $950 million of losses in credit adjustments in other and CIB as well as a $900 million markdown on our bridge book. And in credit, we built $6.8 billion of reserves relative to this quarter's release of $5.2 billion.

有關我們結果的更多詳細信息，請轉到第 2 頁。在查看本季度的表現時，與去年同期相比存在很多噪音，特別是考慮到去年 3 月發生的情況。因此，重要的是要記住 2020 年 3 月左右的幾個關鍵點。實際上，投資銀行活動停止或延遲，但投資級債券發行除外。我們在其他和 CIB 的信用調整中記錄了 9.5 億美元的損失，並在我們的過橋賬簿上記錄了 9 億美元的降價。在信貸方面，相對於本季度釋放的 52 億美元，我們建立了 68 億美元的準備金。

So with that in mind, revenue of $33.1 billion was up $4.1 billion or 14% year-on-year. Net interest income was down $1.6 billion or 11% primarily driven by lower rates. And noninterest revenue was up $5.7 billion or 39%. While this comparison is in part impacted by several of the items I just mentioned, in absolute terms, we saw strong fee generation across the franchise, including in investment banking, AWM and Home Lending as well as a strong performance in markets.

因此，考慮到這一點，331 億美元的收入同比增長 41 億美元或 14%。淨利息收入下降 16 億美元或 11%，主要是由於利率下降。非利息收入增長了 57 億美元或 39%。雖然這種比較部分受到我剛才提到的幾個項目的影響，但從絕對值來看，我們看到整個特許經營權產生了強勁的費用，包括投資銀行、AWM 和房屋貸款，以及市場表現強勁。

Expenses of $18.7 billion were up 12% year-on-year on higher volume and revenue-related expenses, the contribution to the foundation that I just mentioned as well as continued investments. And credit costs were a net benefit of $4.2 billion driven by reserve releases. And here, it's worth noting that charge-offs were down about $400 million year-on-year or 28% and continue to trend near historical lows.

187 億美元的支出同比增長 12%，原因是數量和與收入相關的支出增加、我剛才提到的對基金會的貢獻以及持續投資。在儲備金釋放的推動下，信貸成本帶來了 42 億美元的淨收益。在這裡，值得注意的是，沖銷同比下降約 4 億美元或 28%，並繼續接近歷史低點。

Turning to Page 3 for more detail on our reserves. We released approximately $5.2 billion of reserves this quarter as recent economic data has been consistently positive, indicating that the recovery may be accelerating faster than we would have thought just a few months ago.

轉到第 3 頁，了解有關我們儲備的更多詳細信息。我們本季度釋放了大約 52 億美元的準備金，因為最近的經濟數據一直是積極的，這表明復甦的速度可能比我們幾個月前想像的要快。

Starting with consumer. In card, we released $3.5 billion. As the employment picture has continued to improve, the Round 3 stimulus has provided another level of support, and early-stage delinquencies remain very low.

從消費者開始。在卡上，我們釋放了 35 億美元。隨著就業形勢持續改善，第三輪刺激措施提供了另一個層次的支持，早期拖欠率仍然很低。

And in Home Lending, we released $625 million primarily driven by continued improvement in HPI expectations and, to a lesser extent, portfolio runoff. And then in wholesale, we released approximately $700 million.

在房屋貸款方面，我們釋放了 6.25 億美元，主要是由於 HPI 預期的持續改善，以及在較小程度上是投資組合徑流。然後在批發方面，我們釋放了大約 7 億美元。

While a strong recovery seems in motion, we're also prepared for more adverse outcomes given remaining uncertainties around the impact of new virus strains and the health of the underlying labor markets. So for now, we remain cautious and are still weighted to our downside scenarios and that about $26 billion were reserved at approximately $7 billion above the current base case. However, it's worth noting that even in a more normalized environment, we wouldn't expect to be 100% weighted to the base case as we'll always have some weighting on alternative scenarios.

雖然強勁的複蘇似乎正在進行中，但鑑於新病毒株的影響和潛在勞動力市場的健康狀況仍存在不確定性，我們也為更多的不利結果做好了準備。因此，就目前而言，我們仍然保持謹慎，並且仍然對我們的下行情景進行加權，並且保留了約 260 億美元，比當前基本情況高出約 70 億美元。然而，值得注意的是，即使在更加規範化的環境中，我們也不會期望 100% 加權到基本情況，因為我們總是會對替代方案進行一些加權。

Now moving to balance sheet and capital on Page 4. We ended the quarter with a CET1 ratio of 13.1%, flat versus the prior quarter, as net growth in retained earnings was offset by lower AOCI and higher RWA. Perhaps the more interesting ratio right now is SLR, which is at 5.5%, excluding the temporary relief that just expired.

現在轉到第 4 頁的資產負債表和資本。我們在本季度末的 CET1 比率為 13.1%，與上一季度持平，因為留存收益的淨增長被較低的 AOCI 和較高的 RWA 所抵消。也許現在更有趣的比率是 SLR，它是 5.5%，不包括剛剛到期的臨時救濟。

As we've said all along, we were never going to rely on short-term temporary relief as a long-term planning matter, and this is evidenced by actions we've taken. We've already engaged with our wholesale deposit clients to explore solutions. And we issued 1.5 billion of preferred stock in the first quarter.

正如我們一直說的那樣，我們永遠不會將短期臨時救濟作為長期規劃事項，我們已經採取的行動證明了這一點。我們已經與我們的批發存款客戶合作探索解決方案。我們在第一季度發行了 15 億股優先股。

Having said that, it's worth reinforcing a few points here. First, it's important to remember that the SLR is a leverage-based requirement, not a risk-based requirement. The growth in bank leverage has been driven by deposits and therefore cannot be cured by reducing lending. In fact, the opposite would be true. If we had more loan growth, it would help because it would absorb excess risk-based capital.

話雖如此，這裡值得強調幾點。首先，重要的是要記住 SLR 是基於槓桿的要求，而不是基於風險的要求。銀行槓桿的增長是由存款驅動的，因此不能通過減少貸款來解決。事實上，情況恰恰相反。如果我們有更多的貸款增長，這將有所幫助，因為它會吸收過多的基於風險的資本。

The issue is that we've had muted loan demand to date. And even if it starts to pick up, it's hard to envision that organic loan growth could keep pace with further QE. And therefore, we expect this leverage issue to persist for some time.

問題是迄今為止我們的貸款需求一直很低。即使它開始回升，也很難想像有機貸款增長能夠跟上進一步量化寬鬆的步伐。因此，我們預計這一槓桿問題將持續一段時間。

And finally, when a bank is leverage constrained, this lowers the marginal value of any deposit, regardless if it is wholesale or retail, operational or nonoperational. And regulators should consider whether requiring banks to hold additional capital for further deposit growth is the right outcome. As we told you last quarter, we have levers to manage SLR, and we will. However, raising capital against deposits and/or turning away deposits are unnatural actions for banks and cannot be good for the system in the long run.

最後，當銀行受到槓桿約束時，這會降低任何存款的邊際價值，無論是批發還是零售，運營還是非運營。監管機構應考慮要求銀行為進一步增加存款而持有額外資本是否是正確的結果。正如我們上個季度告訴你的那樣，我們有管理 SLR 的槓桿，我們會的。然而，針對存款籌集資金和/或拒絕存款對銀行來說是不自然的行為，從長遠來看對系統沒有好處。

And then just to wrap up on capital. Regarding distributions, the limitations were extended another quarter. So based on our income, that corresponds to buyback capacity of about $7.4 billion in the second quarter after paying our $0.90 dividend. Given the preferreds we plan to issue and the work underway around excess client deposits, while, of course, this could become more challenging, we believe that we should be able to buy back most, if not all, of that capacity.

然後只是為了結束資本。關於分佈，限制又延長了四分之一。因此，根據我們的收入，這相當於在支付我們 0.90 美元的股息後，第二季度的回購能力約為 74 億美元。鑑於我們計劃發行的優先股以及圍繞超額客戶存款正在進行的工作，當然，這可能變得更具挑戰性，我們相信我們應該能夠回購大部分（如果不是全部）該容量。

Now let's go to our businesses, starting with Consumer & Community Banking on Page 5. CCB reported net income of $6.7 billion, including reserve releases of $4.6 billion. Starting with the key drivers of the year-on-year financial performance, which I'll just note have generally been consistent over the last few quarters against the backdrop of strong consumer balance sheets with higher savings rates and investments as well as healthy deleveraging.

現在讓我們談談我們的業務，從第 5 頁的消費者和社區銀行業務開始。建行報告的淨收入為 67 億美元，其中包括 46 億美元的準備金釋放。從同比財務業績的主要驅動因素開始，在過去幾個季度中，在強勁的消費者資產負債表、更高的儲蓄率和投資以及健康的去槓桿化的背景下，這些因素總體上是一致的。

Deposit growth was 32% or $240 billion as existing customers' balances remain elevated, and we also continue to acquire new customers. Client investment assets were up 44%, driven by market appreciation and positive net flows across our adviser and digital channels.

存款增長 32% 或 2400 億美元，因為現有客戶的餘額仍然很高，而且我們也繼續獲得新客戶。受市場升值以及我們顧問和數字渠道的正淨流量的推動，客戶投資資產增長了 44%。

Home lending originations were $39 billion, up 40% in an overall larger market. And auto loan and lease originations were $11.2 billion, up 35% with March being the best month on record. However, loans were down 7% as outstandings in card remain lower even as spend is recovering to pre-COVID levels. This is in addition to the continued runoff of the mortgage portfolio and partially offset by PPP additions.

房屋貸款發放額為 390 億美元，在整個更大的市場中增長了 40%。汽車貸款和租賃發起額為 112 億美元，增長 35%，其中 3 月是有記錄以來最好的月份。然而，即使支出恢復到 COVID 之前的水平，由於信用卡的未償付餘額仍然較低，貸款下降了 7%。這是抵押貸款投資組合持續流失的補充，並被 PPP 的增加部分抵消。

Mobile users grew 9% to nearly 42 million. And the customer migration to digital continued with branch transactions still down double digits.

移動用戶增長 9%，達到近 4200 萬。客戶繼續向數字化遷移，分支機構交易仍以兩位數下降。

In Consumer Banking, approximately 50% of new checking and savings accounts were opened digitally, and that's up more than 10 percentage points year-on-year. Notably, we're also seeing a few emerging trends worth covering. Consumer sentiment has returned to more normalized levels, reflecting increased optimism. We've seen debit and credit card spend return to pre-pandemic levels, up 9% year-on-year and 14% versus 1Q '19, despite T&E remaining significantly lower. That said, we are seeing strong momentum in T&E with spend up more than 50% in March compared to February and similar growth across cxLoyalty and Ultimate Reward travel bookings. With higher rates, mortgage lock margins have tightened and refi applications have slowed, but the overall market is still robust.

在個人銀行業務中，大約 50% 的新支票和儲蓄賬戶以數字方式開設，同比增長 10 個以上。值得注意的是，我們還看到了一些值得關注的新興趨勢。消費者信心已恢復至更正常的水平，反映出樂觀情緒增強。儘管 T&E 仍然顯著降低，但我們已經看到借記卡和信用卡支出恢復到大流行前的水平，同比增長 9%，與 19 年第一季度相比增長 14%。也就是說，我們看到 T&E 的強勁勢頭，與 2 月份相比，3 月份的支出增長了 50% 以上，cxLoyalty 和 Ultimate Reward 的旅行預訂也出現了類似的增長。隨著利率的提高，抵押貸款鎖定保證金收緊，refi 申請放緩，但整體市場仍然強勁。

And on credit, government stimulus and industry forbearance programs have provided confidence that the bridge is likely going to be long enough and strong enough. Taken together with the pace of the vaccine rollout, we believe there's some permanence to the loss mitigation. And while 1Q '21 card losses are higher quarter-on-quarter, we do expect losses to decrease in the second and third quarters.

值得一提的是，政府的刺激措施和行業寬容計劃讓人們相信這座橋很可能會足夠長、足夠堅固。結合疫苗推出的速度，我們認為減輕損失的效果是持久的。雖然 21 年第一季度的卡損失環比較高，但我們確實預計第二和第三季度的損失會減少。

In summary, revenue of $12.5 billion was down 6% year-on-year driven by deposit margin compression and lower card NII on lower balances, largely offset by strong deposit growth and higher home lending production revenue. Expenses of $7.2 billion were down 1% as we self-fund our investments. And credit costs were a net benefit of $3.6 billion, driven by the $4.6 billion of reserve releases I previously mentioned, partially offset by net charge-offs of $1 billion.

總而言之，125 億美元的收入同比下降 6%，這是由於存款保證金壓縮和較低餘額導致的信用卡 NII 下降，這在很大程度上被強勁的存款增長和較高的住房貸款生產收入所抵消。由於我們自籌資金，72 億美元的費用下降了 1%。在我之前提到的 46 億美元儲備釋放的推動下，信貸成本帶來了 36 億美元的淨收益，部分被 10 億美元的淨沖銷抵消。

Now turning to the Corporate & Investment Bank on Page 6. CIB reported net income of $5.7 billion and an ROE of 27% on record first quarter revenue of $14.6 billion. Investment Banking revenue of $2.9 billion was up 67% year-on-year, excluding the impact of the bridge book markdown last year. IB fees of $3 billion were up 57%. And while we now rank #2, largely due to SPAC IPOs, we maintained our global IB wallet share of 9%. The quarter's performance was an all-time record driven by the continued momentum in the equity issuance markets as well as robust activity in M&A and DCM.

現在轉向第 6 頁的企業與投資銀行。CIB 報告第一季度收入為 146 億美元，淨收入為 57 億美元，ROE 為 27%。投資銀行業務收入為 29 億美元，同比增長 67%，不包括去年過橋賬簿降價的影響。 30億美元的IB費用增長了57%。雖然我們現在排名第二，主要是由於 SPAC 首次公開募股，但我們保持了 9% 的全球 IB 錢包份額。由於股票發行市場的持續勢頭以及併購和 DCM 的強勁活動，本季度的業績創下歷史新高。

In advisory, we were up 35%, benefiting from the surge in announcement activity in the second half of 2020. Debt underwriting fees were up 17% driven by leveraged finance activity. And here, we maintained our #1 rank and lead left position. And in equity underwriting, fees were up more than 200% primarily driven by IPOs as clients continue to take advantage of strong market conditions.

在諮詢方面，我們上漲了 35%，這得益於 2020 年下半年公告活動的激增。債務承銷費在槓桿融資活動的推動下上漲了 17%。在這裡，我們保持了我們的第一名並領先左翼。在股票承銷方面，由於客戶繼續利用強勁的市場條件，主要受 IPO 推動，費用上漲了 200% 以上。

Looking forward, the IPO calendar is expected to remain active with M&A momentum likely to continue. And while the pipeline is higher than it's ever been, the number of flow deals outside of the pipeline, both this year and last year, make it difficult to predict the second quarter. So at this point, I'd say we expect IB fees to be about flat year-on-year.

展望未來，IPO 日程預計將保持活躍，併購勢頭可能會持續。雖然管道比以往任何時候都高，但管道外的流量交易數量，無論是今年還是去年，都使得第二季度難以預測。所以在這一點上，我想說我們預計 IB 費用將與去年同期持平。

Moving to markets. Total revenue was $9.1 billion, up 25% against the strong prior year quarter. In January and February, we saw a robust trading environment. And client activity remained elevated with the positive momentum from the end of 2020 carrying through to the start of the year. In March, our performance started to normalize but remained above pre-COVID levels.

轉移到市場。總收入為 91 億美元，比去年同期強勁增長 25%。 1 月和 2 月，我們看到了強勁的交易環境。從 2020 年底一直持續到年初，客戶活動保持活躍，勢頭良好。 3 月，我們的表現開始正常化，但仍高於 COVID 之前的水平。

Fixed income was up 15% with outperformance in securitized products and credit, supported by active primary and secondary markets, partially offset by lower revenues in rates and currency and emerging markets against the tough compare in March of last year. Equity markets was up 47% and an all-time record driven by a favorable trading environment in equity derivatives as well as strong client activity across products.

在活躍的一級和二級市場的支持下，固定收益增長了 15%，證券化產品和信貸表現出色，但與去年 3 月的艱難比較相比，利率、貨幣和新興市場的收入下降部分抵消了這一影響。股票市場上漲了 47%，並創下歷史新高，這得益於股票衍生品的有利交易環境以及跨產品的強勁客戶活動。

In terms of outlook, based on recent weeks, we would expect this quarter to be closer to the second quarter of 2019, as 2Q '20 was the best quarter on record for our markets franchise but, obviously, it's still early.

就前景而言，根據最近幾週，我們預計本季度將更接近 2019 年第二季度，因為 20 年第二季度是我們市場特許經營有記錄以來最好的季度，但顯然，現在還為時過早。

Wholesale Payments and Securities Services revenues were $1.4 billion and $1.1 billion, respectively, both down 2% year-on-year with higher deposit balances more than offset by deposit margin compression. Expenses of $7.1 billion were up 19% year-on-year on higher revenue-related compensation, partially offset by lower legal expense. And credit costs were a net benefit of $331 million driven by the reserve releases I discussed earlier.

批發支付和證券服務收入分別為 14 億美元和 11 億美元，同比均下降 2%，存款餘額增加被存款保證金壓縮所抵消。由於與收入相關的薪酬增加，71 億美元的費用同比增長 19%，部分被較低的法律費用所抵消。信貸成本是我之前討論的儲備金釋放帶來的 3.31 億美元的淨收益。

Now let's go to Commercial Banking on Page 7. Commercial Banking reported net income of $1.2 billion and an ROE of 19%. Revenue of $2.4 billion was up 11% year-on-year with higher lending and investment banking revenue in the absence of a prior year markdown in the bridge book, partially offset by lower deposit revenue. Record gross investment banking revenue of $1.1 billion was up 65% with broad-based strength as market conditions remain favorable. Expenses of $969 million were down 2% driven by lower structural expenses. Deposits of $291 billion were up 54% year-on-year and 5% quarter-on-quarter as client balances remain elevated. And loans were down 2% year-on-year and 3% sequentially.

現在讓我們轉到第 7 頁的商業銀行。商業銀行報告的淨收入為 12 億美元，ROE 為 19%。收入為 24 億美元，同比增長 11%，其中貸款和投資銀行業務收入增加，但在過橋賬簿中沒有上一年降價的情況下，部分被存款收入減少所抵消。由於市場條件仍然有利，投資銀行業務總收入達到創紀錄的 11 億美元，增長了 65%，基礎廣泛。由於結構性支出減少，支出減少了 2%，為 9.69 億美元。由於客戶結餘仍居高不下，存款為 2,910 億元，按年上升 54%，按季上升 5%。貸款同比下降 2%，環比下降 3%。

C&I loans were down 4% from the prior quarter on lower revolver balances as clients continue to access capital markets for liquidity, partially offset by additional PPP funding. And CRE loans were down 1% with continued low origination volumes in commercial term lending, partially offset by increased affordable housing activity. Finally, credit costs were a net benefit of $118 million driven by reserve releases with net charge-offs of $29 million driven by oil and gas.

C&I 貸款比上一季度下降 4%，原因是客戶繼續進入資本市場尋求流動性，部分被額外的 PPP 資金抵消，循環餘額減少。 CRE 貸款下降 1%，商業定期貸款的發起量持續偏低，部分被經濟適用房活動的增加所抵消。最後，信貸成本是由儲備釋放推動的 1.18 億美元的淨收益，石油和天然氣推動的淨沖銷為 2900 萬美元。

Now on to Asset & Wealth Management on Page 8. Asset & Wealth Management generated record net income of $1.2 billion with pretax margin of 40% and ROE of 35%. For the quarter, revenue of $4.1 billion was up 20% year-on-year as higher management fees, growth in deposit and loan balances as well as investment valuation gains were partially offset by deposit margin compression. Expenses of $2.6 billion were up 6% with higher volume and revenue-related expenses, partially offset by lower structural expense. And credit costs were a net benefit of $121 million primarily due to reserve releases.

現在轉到第 8 頁的資產與財富管理。資產與財富管理創造了創紀錄的 12 億美元的淨收入，稅前利潤率為 40%，ROE 為 35%。本季度的收入為 41 億美元，同比增長 20%，因為較高的管理費用、存貸款餘額的增長以及投資估值收益被存款利潤率壓縮部分抵消。 26 億美元的費用增長了 6%，其中與數量和收入相關的費用增加，部分被結構性費用的減少所抵消。信貸成本是 1.21 億美元的淨收益，主要是由於儲備金的釋放。

For the quarter, record net long-term inflows of $48 billion were again positive across all channels, asset classes and regions with particular strength in equities. And in liquidity, we saw net inflows of $44 billion as banks encourage clients to move excess deposits away from them. AUM of $2.8 trillion and overall client assets of $3.8 trillion, up 28% and 32% year-on-year, respectively, were driven by higher market levels as well as strong net inflows. And finally, deposits were up 43% and loans were up 18% with strength in security-based lending, custom lending and mortgages.

本季度，所有渠道、資產類別和地區的長期淨流入達到創紀錄的 480 億美元，其中股票尤其強勁。在流動性方面，我們看到 440 億美元的淨流入，因為銀行鼓勵客戶將多餘的存款轉移出去。 2.8 萬億美元的資產管理規模和 3.8 萬億美元的整體客戶資產，分別同比增長 28% 和 32%，這得益於更高的市場水平和強勁的淨流入。最後，存款增長 43%，貸款增長 18%，基於證券的貸款、定制貸款和抵押貸款增長強勁。

Now on to Corporate on Page 9. Corporate reported a net loss of $580 million. Revenue was a loss of $473 million, down $639 million year-on-year. Net interest income was down nearly $700 million on lower rates as well as limited deployment opportunities on the back of continued deposit growth. And expenses of $876 million were up $730 million year-on-year primarily driven by the contribution to the foundation I mentioned earlier. The results for the quarter also include a tax benefit related to the impact of the firm's expected full year tax rate relative to the level of pretax income this quarter.

現在轉到第 9 頁的企業。企業報告淨虧損 5.8 億美元。收入虧損 4.73 億美元，同比減少 6.39 億美元。由於利率下降以及存款持續增長導致部署機會有限，淨利息收入下降了近 7 億美元。 8.76 億美元的支出同比增加了 7.3 億美元，這主要是由於我之前提到的對基金會的貢獻。本季度的業績還包括與公司預期全年稅率相對於本季度稅前收入水平的影響相關的稅收優惠。

So with that, moving to the outlook on Page 10. You'll see here that our 2021 NII outlook of around $55 billion remains in line with our previous guidance, as the benefits of the steepening yield curve are being offset by customer behavior in card. It's worth noting that forecasting NII is perhaps more challenging than it's been in a long time as many of the key inputs, market-implied rates, deposit forecast, securities reinvestment and customer behavior in card are all quite fluid. And as a reminder, while customer deleveraging and higher payment rates in card is a headwind for NII, it's a tailwind for credit. And we now expect our card net charge-off rate to be around 250 basis points for the year. And then on expenses, we've increased our guidance to approximately $70 billion with the largest driver being higher volume and revenue-related expenses, which importantly have offsets in revenue.

因此，轉到第 10 頁的展望。您將在此處看到，我們 2021 年 NII 展望約為 550 億美元，仍與我們之前的指導一致，因為收益率曲線變陡的好處正在被卡中的客戶行為所抵消.值得注意的是，預測 NII 可能比長期以來更具挑戰性，因為許多關鍵輸入、市場隱含利率、存款預測、證券再投資和卡中的客戶行為都非常不穩定。提醒一下，雖然客戶去槓桿化和更高的信用卡支付率是 NII 的逆風，但它是信貸的順風。我們現在預計今年我們的卡淨沖銷率約為 250 個基點。然後在費用方面，我們已將我們的指導提高到約 700 億美元，最大的驅動因素是更高的數量和與收入相關的費用，重要的是抵消了收入。

So to wrap up, the year has gotten off to a strong start, and a robust economic recovery seems underway. Of course, there are still risks and uncertainties ahead that we're preparing for as well as specific issues that we're facing, including the balance sheet dynamics I mentioned, the rate environment and tough year-on-year comparisons, among other things. Having said that, the earnings power of the franchise remains evident. And we'll continue to use our resources to serve our clients, customers and communities.

總而言之，今年開局強勁，強勁的經濟復甦似乎正在進行中。當然，我們還在為未來的風險和不確定性做準備，以及我們面臨的具體問題，包括我提到的資產負債表動態、利率環境和艱難的同比比較等.話雖如此，特許經營的盈利能力仍然顯而易見。我們將繼續利用我們的資源為我們的客戶、客戶和社區服務。

And with that, operator, please open the line for Q&A.

有了這個，接線員，請打開問答線。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Erika Najarian with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自美國銀行美林證券的 Erika Najarian。

My first question is for Jamie. Jamie, you noted during a December conference that you believe that normalized ROTCE for JPMorgan would be about 17%. And investors were wondering, as we think about JPMorgan perhaps cementing a higher GSIB surcharge at 4% this year, is 17% still achievable under that context or constrained?

我的第一個問題是給傑米的。 Jamie，您在 12 月的一次會議上指出，您認為摩根大通的標準化 ROTCE 約為 17%。投資者想知道，當我們考慮摩根大通今年可能將 GSIB 附加費提高到 4% 時，在這種情況下仍然可以達到 17% 還是受到限制？

Yes. So Erika, I'll start. So just a couple of things to think about on capital. So while we're -- we ended the year in the 4% bucket for GSIB. And it's probably worth mentioning, given the continued expansion of the system through the Fed balance sheet, even staying in 4% could become challenging for us. But just a couple of things to keep in mind there is we believe that like we do have offsets in the stress capital buffer. And we do believe that it's very possible that we'll see those come through in this round. Of course, it's dependent upon the Fed models, not our models. But we've talked about things that -- actions that we've taken sort of mechanical in nature in addition to moving investment securities into held to maturity, that should give us some benefit on the SCB. Of course, that's scenario dependent, but we do expect some benefit there that could offset.

是的。艾麗卡，我開始吧。因此，在資本方面需要考慮幾件事。因此，雖然我們 - 我們在 GSIB 的 4% 桶中結束了這一年。可能值得一提的是，鑑於該系統通過美聯儲資產負債表持續擴張，即使保持在 4% 也可能對我們構成挑戰。但要記住幾件事，我們相信我們確實在壓力資本緩衝中得到了抵消。而且我們確實相信我們很有可能會在這一輪中看到那些通過。當然，這取決於美聯儲的模型，而不是我們的模型。但我們已經談到了一些事情——除了將投資證券轉為持有至到期之外，我們採取了某種機械性質的行動，這應該會給我們在 SCB 帶來一些好處。當然，這取決於情景，但我們確實希望那裡有一些可以抵消的好處。

It's also important to remember that we still are waiting for the Basel III endgame. And the indication from the Fed is that they will address GSIB recalibration as part of that. And so it's quite possible that we see GSIB recalibration but perhaps another constraint that we'll be managing. So there is a lot that we'll learn over probably the next year or 2. And of course, the higher GSIB doesn't come into effect until the first quarter of '23.

同樣重要的是要記住，我們仍在等待巴塞爾 III 的最後階段。美聯儲表示，他們將把 GSIB 重新校準作為其中的一部分。因此，我們很可能會看到 GSIB 重新校準，但可能是我們將要管理的另一個約束。所以我們可能會在明年或明年學到很多東西。當然，更高的 GSIB 直到 23 年第一季度才會生效。

So we do think we have offsets. We're still thinking about 12% as being a target CET1 for us, of course, given what we know today. But we are still waiting for that Basel III endgame to really understand what we're dealing with. And at that 12%, in a more normalized environment, which wouldn't just be about rates, it would also be about loan demand, 17% still feels achievable for us.

所以我們確實認為我們有抵消。當然，鑑於我們今天所知道的，我們仍然認為 12% 是我們的目標 CET1。但我們仍在等待巴塞爾協議 III 的最後階段，以真正了解我們正在處理的內容。在這 12% 的情況下，在更加正常化的環境中，這不僅與利率有關，還與貸款需求有關，我們仍然覺得 17% 是可以實現的。

Got it. And thank you for going through some of the leverage constraint now that SLR has been -- exemption has expired. The investors have also been wondering, as we think about your opportunity to continue to facilitate the economic recovery globally, does the constraint on SLR and the moving pieces on GSIB change your priorities in terms of timing or sizing of the $30 billion buyback or inorganic growth opportunities that you've mentioned in the past?

知道了。並且感謝您現在 SLR 已經經歷了一些槓桿限制 - 豁免已經到期。投資者也一直想知道，當我們考慮您繼續促進全球經濟復甦的機會時，對 SLR 的限制和 GSIB 的變動是否會改變您在 300 億美元回購或無機增長的時間或規模方面的優先事項你過去提到的機會？

I would say, broadly speaking, no. But an important point there on SLR, we obviously -- the levers we have are issuing preferreds. We can retain more common. But we're also working closely with wholesale clients in a very selective way, as I mentioned, to find alternatives for excess deposits.

我會說，從廣義上講，不。但是在 SLR 上很重要的一點，我們顯然 - 我們擁有的槓桿正在發行優先股。我們可以保留更常見的。但正如我所提到的，我們也在以一種非常有選擇性的方式與批發客戶密切合作，以尋找超額存款的替代方案。

So it is true that common is one of the levers, although I will say that while it might give us more flexibility, it comes at a much greater cost. So at this point, given what we know and what we expect, we don't expect that we would have to retain more common. We think we can manage this through issuing more preferreds and working closely with our clients to find alternatives. So I would say, broadly speaking, no.

因此，通用確實是槓桿之一，儘管我會說，雖然它可能會給我們更多的靈活性，但它的成本要高得多。因此，在這一點上，鑑於我們所知道的和我們所期望的，我們不希望我們必須保留更多的共同點。我們認為，我們可以通過發行更多的優先股並與客戶密切合作以尋找替代方案來管理這一點。所以我會說，從廣義上講，不。

The GSIB constraints, as we've been saying for years now, is one that will become increasingly challenging for us. And now, particularly with the expansion of the system, it's even more challenging than perhaps it was just a few years ago, but we're managing through that as well.

正如我們多年來一直在說的那樣，GSIB 的限制對我們來說將變得越來越具有挑戰性。而現在，尤其是隨著系統的擴展，它可能比幾年前更具挑戰性，但我們也在努力應對。

Your next question comes from the line of John McDonald with Autonomous Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Autonomous Research 的 John McDonald。

I wanted to ask about expenses. Obviously, you've raised the outlook by $1 billion a few times the last couple of times you've spoken. I guess in terms of the increase that you announced today to the outlook, can you give a little more color on how much of that is volume and revenue related, as opposed to the other buckets you talked about in January, which were investments in structural?

我想問一下費用。顯然，在過去的幾次談話中，你已經幾次將前景提高了 10 億美元。我想就您今天宣布的前景增長而言，您能否就其中有多少與數量和收入相關，而不是您在 1 月份談到的其他方面，即結構性投資?

Sure, sure. So the increase from the $69 billion, which was the guidance we gave in the K, is almost entirely volume and revenue related. And so there, I'll just make an important point that it's volume and revenue related.

一定一定。因此，我們在 K 中給出的 690 億美元的增長幾乎完全與數量和收入有關。所以在那裡，我要強調一點，它與數量和收入相關。

So as an example, volumes in CCB, just given the environment, they are very valuable for long-term franchise revenue growth. But we may not see that revenue growth in the near term. But as we always say, we don't manage this place for 1 quarter or even 1 year.

舉個例子，建行的數量，就環境而言，它們對於長期特許經營收入增長非常有價值。但我們可能不會在短期內看到收入增長。但正如我們常說的，我們不會在 1 個季度甚至 1 年內管理這個地方。

So there are expenses associated with volume growth that may not have the revenue growth you would anticipate over the long run, but it's almost entirely volume and revenue related. There are a few other things like marketing expense that, given the strength of the recovery that we expect, we now expect to lean more in on marketing expense in the second half of the year. So that's part of it as well.

因此，從長遠來看，與銷量增長相關的費用可能沒有您預期的收入增長，但它幾乎完全與銷量和收入相關。還有一些其他的事情，比如營銷費用，鑑於我們預期的複蘇力度，我們現在預計下半年將更多地依靠營銷費用。所以這也是其中的一部分。

Okay. And I guess the follow-up would be does that necessarily mean that it's more concentrated, the increase in the first quarter because you had such a big quarter? And are there COVID-related costs that you have in your numbers this year that might come out over time?

好的。而且我想後續行動是否一定意味著它更加集中，第一季度的增長是因為你有這麼大的季度？您今年的數據中是否有與 COVID 相關的成本可能會隨著時間的推移而出現？

Obviously, some of it is in the first quarter. But things like further volume-related expenses like I talked about or marketing, they're less so in the first quarter. And then what was your other question?

顯然，其中一些是在第一季度。但是像我談到的進一步與數量相關的費用或營銷等事情，在第一季度就不那麼重要了。然後你的另一個問題是什麼？

COVID.

冠狀病毒病。

Those numbers are lower than they were even last year and included in the outlook but not material in the grand scheme of things.

這些數字甚至低於去年，並包含在前景中，但在總體規劃中並不重要。

Your next question comes from the line of Glenn Schorr with Evercore ISI.

您的下一個問題來自與 Evercore ISI 的 Glenn Schorr。

So if you're right on the economy, which I think a lot of us think you are, we're starting to see the spend part of the pickup now, as you mentioned, across credit and debit and some of the P&A. So my question is how do you think about the staging of the lens part. Both consumer and corporates are so flushed with all that liquidity. How do you think about the timing for loan growth? And if I could get a consumer versus wholesale comment, that would be great.

因此，如果您對經濟的看法是正確的，我認為我們很多人都認為您是正確的，那麼正如您所提到的，我們現在開始看到支出部分回升，包括信貸和借方以及一些 P&A。所以我的問題是你如何看待鏡頭部分的分期。消費者和企業都充斥著所有這些流動性。您如何看待貸款增長的時機？如果我能得到消費者與批發的評論，那就太好了。

Sure. So you used the right word, which is demand. And it really is all about demand, which, of course, is quite healthy, particularly as it relates to the consumer when you think about the amount of deleveraging that we've seen through this process. So there, we do expect a second half pickup because, as you say, we first have to see spend recover before we see relevering on the consumer side.

當然。所以你用了正確的詞，那就是需求。這確實與需求有關，當然，需求是相當健康的，特別是當你考慮到我們在這個過程中看到的去槓桿化程度時，它與消費者有關。因此，我們確實預計下半年會有所回升，因為正如您所說，我們首先必須看到支出恢復，然後才能看到消費者方面的重新調整。

So -- and then it is also true even for small business, which is obviously part of CCB. Their demand has been very low given the support that's available through PPP. And so that will likely pick up in the second half as well.

所以 - 即使是小企業也是如此，這顯然是建行的一部分。鑑於通過 PPP 提供的支持，他們的需求一直很低。因此，下半年也可能會有所回升。

And then elsewhere, AWM has been strong throughout, and we see that continuing. And then on the CIB side, I mean that's always lumpy and deal dependent. But that's active as well. And we do see within secured lending, opportunities there across asset classes. Again, that's a bit more opportunistic.

然後在其他地方，AWM 一直很強大，我們看到這種情況還在繼續。然後在 CIB 方面，我的意思是這總是不穩定的並且依賴於交易。但這也很活躍。我們確實在擔保貸款中看到了跨資產類別的機會。同樣，這有點機會主義。

And then in the commercial bank, given the level of support, the amount of liquidity in the markets as well as the amount of cash on balance sheet, loan growth there has been muted and probably will be for some time. But again, that's incredibly healthy ultimately for the recovery. And so whether we see that pick up later this year or next year remains to be seen, but it's all for good reasons.

然後在商業銀行，考慮到支持水平、市場流動性以及資產負債表上的現金數量，那裡的貸款增長已經放緩，並且可能會持續一段時間。但同樣，這最終對於復蘇來說是非常健康的。因此，我們是否會在今年晚些時候或明年看到這種回升還有待觀察，但這都是有充分理由的。

I appreciate that. Maybe I'll just ask one follow-up on the deposit side. Obviously, deposit growth has been incredibly strong. So the two-parter is what do you think happens on the deposit side as the economy goes down the path that you've outlined, and what do you do with the deposit money in the meantime, because I saw it loud and clear, Jamie's comments on it's hard to justify the price of U.S. debt. So what are we doing with all that liquidity in the meantime?

我很感激。也許我會在存款方面詢問一個後續行動。顯然，存款增長非常強勁。所以兩部分是你認為隨著經濟沿著你所概述的道路發展，存款方面會發生什麼，同時你如何處理存款，因為我清楚地看到了，傑米的關於難以證明美國債務價格合理的評論。那麼，與此同時，我們如何處理所有這些流動性呢？

So first of all, I would say that deposits are going to be driven by the Fed balance sheet and, to some extent, obviously by bank lending. But given the demand picture there, you can think of it in the near term as all being driven by Fed balance sheet expansion. And so we obviously continue to expect significant deposit growth, which is why we've been talking about this so much.

所以首先，我會說存款將受到美聯儲資產負債表的推動，在某種程度上，顯然是受到銀行貸款的推動。但考慮到那裡的需求情況，你可以在短期內認為這一切都是由美聯儲資產負債表擴張推動的。因此，我們顯然會繼續期待存款的顯著增長，這就是我們一直在談論這個問題的原因。

And then just in terms of how we deploy it, you will have seen that our cash balances are up quarter-over-quarter. And there, it's just important to remember that, for sure, we are being patient in the investment securities portfolio. That is true. I'll also mention that we are -- because of the steepening of the yield curve, we are less short. Banks will drift long in a selloff, and so that has been part of the dynamic as well. But there's short-term cash deployment also. And so what we saw there was when repo markets fall below IOER, we're going to hold that short-term cash deployment in IOER relative to the repo market. So you'll see that dynamic on our balance sheet as well.

然後就我們如何部署它而言，您會看到我們的現金餘額環比增長。在那裡，重要的是要記住，當然，我們在投資證券組合中保持耐心。那是真實的。我還要提到，由於收益率曲線變陡，我們的空頭減少了。銀行將在拋售中長期漂泊，因此這也是動態的一部分。但也有短期現金部署。因此，我們看到當回購市場跌破 IOER 時，相對於回購市場，我們將在 IOER 中持有短期現金部署。所以你也會在我們的資產負債表上看到這種動態。

Your next question comes from the line of Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

您的下一個問題來自 Ken Usdin 與 Jefferies 的對話。

I just wonder if you could elaborate on that. You mentioned the record investment banking pipeline and flattish year-over-year as a best guess. So I was just wondering if you could talk about the mix dynamics there. Obviously, the first quarter was just ridiculously great in terms of the ECM markets. And can you just give us a flavor of just where you see activity? And how much is that underwriting activity potentially dampening what might be happening on the commercial loan side?

我只是想知道你是否可以詳細說明。您提到了創紀錄的投資銀行渠道和同比持平作為最佳猜測。所以我只是想知道你是否可以在那裡談論混合動態。顯然，就 ECM 市場而言，第一季度的表現非常好。你能告訴我們你看到活動的地方嗎？承銷活動在多大程度上可能抑製商業貸款方面可能發生的事情？

Well, I'll start with the latter, which is it's absolutely been very, very supportive of corporates. And therefore, it has a lot to do with what we're seeing in terms of the muted loan demand from corporates.

好吧，我將從後者開始，它絕對非常非常支持企業。因此，這與我們所看到的企業貸款需求疲軟有很大關係。

And then in terms of the mix, we expect ECM and M&A to continue. But on DCM, there's a lot of flow activity that doesn't necessarily get represented in a pipeline because it's high velocity-type activity. We saw that in the second quarter of last year. We continue to see that now, which is why I said it makes it a little bit difficult to predict the second quarter. So while the pipeline is higher than it's ever been, there is still a lot of high velocity activity. And so that's why we think that the quarter will be flattish year-over-year despite the very high pipeline.

然後就組合而言，我們預計 ECM 和併購將繼續。但是在 DCM 上，有很多流活動不一定會在管道中表示出來，因為它是高速類型的活動。我們在去年第二季度看到了這一點。我們現在繼續看到這一點，這就是為什麼我說這使得預測第二季度有點困難。因此，儘管管道比以往任何時候都高，但仍然有很多高速活動。這就是為什麼我們認為該季度將同比持平，儘管管道非常高。

Can you guys hear me?

你們能聽到我嗎？

Yes. Yes.

是的。是的。

Because we can't hear you anymore. I'm going to put you on mute for a minute.

因為我們再也聽不到你的聲音了。我要讓你靜音一分鐘。

Okay. Jamie is traveling. So we have him on Zoom. I know everybody can appreciate technology challenges because we've all had them over the last year.

好的。傑米正在旅行。所以我們讓他在 Zoom 上。我知道每個人都能理解技術挑戰，因為我們在過去一年都遇到過這些挑戰。

Okay. Great, Jen. And just my follow-up...

好的。太好了，珍。只是我的後續行動......

Jen, just keep on going because I can hear the questions. I can't hear you, but you're doing a great job and you don't really need me.

Jen，繼續說下去，因為我能聽到這些問題。我聽不見你，但你做得很好，你並不真的需要我。

Well, thank you. I'm sure I'll need you at some point, so I hope they're on that. Anyway, go ahead. I'm sorry.

嗯，謝謝。我相信我會在某個時候需要你，所以我希望他們能做到這一點。不管怎樣，繼續吧。對不起。

Again, no problem, Jen. Okay. The second one is just with regards to the comments that you guys have made for a while about looking at acquisition opportunities. Just wondering just how is the interplay between everything you've talked about already on balance sheet capacity and ongoing deposit growth and limitations on CET1 and SLR versus how you make potential decisions around usage of capital in an acquisition capacity.

再一次，沒問題，珍。好的。第二個是關於你們一段時間以來關於尋找收購機會的評論。只是想知道你已經談到的關於資產負債表能力和持續存款增長以及 CET1 和 SLR 的限制與你如何圍繞收購能力中的資本使用做出潛在決策之間的相互作用。

Yes, it's a great question. Interestingly, the issue is not that we don't have capital available to make those types of decisions. The issue is that we have the wrong binding constraint. So the binding constraint is leveraged, not risk-based. And so it doesn't change the way we think about acquisitions at all. In fact, acquisitions and/or increased loan growth would help to kind of normalize the constraints between leverage and risk-based. And so we would love to be able to absorb some of our CET1 through acquisitions because, as I said, it sort of just brings the balance back into focus. The issue is that it's leverage-based constraint that is the constraint, and we're in a low rate environment with low loan demand and very strong deposit growth. So it's the combination of all those things that makes leverage the binding constraint. But it doesn't change the way we're thinking about acquisitions.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。有趣的是，問題不在於我們沒有資金來做出這些類型的決定。問題是我們有錯誤的綁定約束。因此，約束約束是利用的，而不是基於風險的。所以它根本不會改變我們對收購的看法。事實上，收購和/或增加貸款增長將有助於使槓桿和基於風險的約束之間的約束正常化。因此，我們希望能夠通過收購吸收我們的一些 CET1，因為正如我所說，它只是讓平衡重新成為焦點。問題是基於槓桿的約束是約束，我們處於低利率環境，貸款需求低，存款增長非常強勁。因此，正是所有這些因素的結合，才利用了綁定約束。但這並沒有改變我們對收購的看法。

Your next question comes from the line of Betsy Graseck with Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。

Jen, a question on card and looking at the net charge-offs. You gave us the full year of 2.5%. And I know you spent a lot of time in card earlier in your career. So maybe you could give us some sense on how you're thinking about the "normalization" of that loss content over time.

仁，卡片上的一個問題，看著淨沖銷。你給了我們全年的 2.5%。我知道你在職業生涯的早期花了很多時間在紙牌上。因此，也許您可以讓我們了解您如何考慮隨著時間的推移損失內容的“正常化”。

When I think back to the bankruptcy changes in the '00s, it took many years for consumers to relever. And I'm wondering, given your background there, could you give us a sense as to what is different this time? And are there time frames historically we should look at for what a normal course like releveraging back to normal of that card loss content should be? How do you think about that?

當我回想起 00 年代的破產變化時，消費者花了很多年才重新振作起來。我想知道，鑑於您在那裡的背景，您能否告訴我們這次有什麼不同？歷史上是否有時間框架，我們應該看看一個正常的過程，比如重新利用卡片丟失內容恢復正常應該是什麼？你怎麼看？

Sure. I would say, first of all, it's difficult to find a historical comparison that's totally relevant here because I don't think we've ever seen this amount of support in the system, which came, of course, on top of an already reasonably healthy consumer. So it's difficult to find the historical perspective. But I will say the 2.5%, I mean, pre-COVID, we would have thought that our loss rate in card this year would have been 3.3%, 3.5%. So it just gives you a sense there of that tailwind on credit is significant.

當然。我想說，首先，很難找到一個與這裡完全相關的歷史比較，因為我認為我們從未在系統中看到過如此多的支持，當然，這是在已經合理的基礎之上的健康的消費者。所以很難找到歷史的視角。但我會說 2.5%，我的意思是，在 COVID 之前，我們會認為我們今年的卡丟失率會是 3.3%、3.5%。所以它只是讓你感覺到信貸的順風很重要。

And in terms of what it's going to take for consumers to relever, I mean we do expect there to be significant economic activity in the second half. And so that could come quite naturally, but it could come a little bit later given the amount of deleveraging we've seen. But the fact that we already see spend above pre-COVID levels and, obviously, we still have restrictions in place, particularly around T&E on consumers' ability to spend, when that comes back, we do think that we'll see spend tick even higher. And that will be a point where perhaps we'll start to see that delevering, but it is difficult to know. It's a great question.

就消費者需要採取什麼措施而言，我的意思是，我們確實預計下半年會有重大的經濟活動。所以這可能會很自然地發生，但考慮到我們已經看到的去槓桿化程度，它可能會晚一點。但事實上，我們已經看到支出高於 COVID 之前的水平，而且顯然我們仍然有限制，特別是在消費者支出能力的 T&E 方面，當這種情況回來時，我們確實認為我們會看到支出甚至增加更高。這可能是我們開始看到去槓桿化的一個點，但很難知道。這是一個很好的問題。

Okay. And then the follow-up I have on your comments around the NII guide and the fact that it's hard to forecast. I got a couple of questions in this morning just on, "Hey, why do you think it's flat versus prior guide given the curve has deepened? And also deposit growth should continue to be up significantly given QE is continuing this full year?"

好的。然後我對您對 NII 指南的評論以及難以預測的事實進行了跟進。今天早上我收到了幾個問題，“嘿，鑑於曲線已經加深，為什麼你認為它與之前的指引持平？而且鑑於量化寬鬆政策將持續到今年全年，存款增長應該會繼續顯著上升？”

So is there some spread angle that you're kind of thinking about that keeps you a little bit more muted? Is it more the loan growth? Maybe you could talk a little bit about those piece parts that you identified.

那麼是否有一些你正在考慮的傳播角度讓你更加沉默？是不是更多的貸款增長？也許您可以談談您確定的那些零件。

Sure. I think it's probably all of the above, Betsy, but starting with the steepening of the yield curve. So if you look at the earnings at risk disclosure, I mean where -- we did see the benefit roughly in line with what that disclosure shows, which is, since we last guided on NII, we steepened probably 25, 30 basis points. So that is incorporated in the outlook, but it is completely offset by the fact that we continue to see consumer behavior in card in terms of higher payment rates. And we haven't started to see relevering as we were just talking about even though spend has recovered. So card, the impacts of card completely offset the steepening of the yield curve.

當然。我認為這可能是以上所有，Betsy，但從收益率曲線變陡開始。因此，如果您查看風險收益披露，我的意思是在哪裡 - 我們確實看到了與披露所顯示的大致一致的收益，也就是說，自從我們上次指導 NII 以來，我們可能陡峭了 25、30 個基點。因此，這已包含在前景中，但這完全被我們繼續看到消費者在卡中支付更高支付率的行為所抵消。儘管支出已經恢復，但我們還沒有開始看到我們剛剛談論的重新調整。所以卡，卡的影響完全抵消了收益率曲線的陡峭化。

You also mentioned loan growth, which is critically important to realizing the benefits of the steepening yield curve. And then I would just mention, we have reflected in our outlook the fact that we have been patient on deploying further deposit growth into the securities portfolio in terms of duration.

您還提到了貸款增長，這對於實現收益率曲線趨陡的好處至關重要。然後我只想提一下，我們在展望中反映了這樣一個事實，即我們一直耐心地將進一步的存款增長部署到證券投資組合中。

And then also, it's probably worth noting that the marginal benefit of further deposit growth is quite small given the fact that deployment opportunities are minimal. And so you can think about them as being something less than 10 basis points because we do have pay rates above 0. So it's something less than 10 basis points. So the marginal deposit growth from here doesn't add a whole lot in this environment anyway.

此外，可能值得注意的是，鑑於部署機會微乎其微，進一步存款增長的邊際收益非常小。因此，您可以將它們視為小於 10 個基點，因為我們的工資率確實高於 0。所以它小於 10 個基點。因此，從這裡開始的邊際存款增長無論如何都不會在這種環境中增加很多。

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo Securities.

您的下一個問題來自富國證券的 Mike Mayo。

My question is for Jamie. And Jamie, your philosophy is to invest through a downturn. And you're increasing your investments by 1/4 year-over-year. You already said that. But what's your philosophy about investing through a boom as you expect over the next 3 years? I mean if the pie is growing, do your investments go higher? It looks like that's not the case with the guidance you guys gave.

我的問題是給傑米的。傑米，你的理念是在低迷時期進行投資。而且您的投資每年增加 1/4。你已經說過了。但是，您對未來 3 年的繁榮期進行投資的理念是什麼？我的意思是如果餡餅在增長，你的投資會更高嗎？看來你們給的指導不是這樣的。

Yes. So I think, Mike, the way I really look at it is it probably doesn't -- it isn't affected as much by boom and bust as you think. So we isolate opportunities like for -- we announced we're going to hire Black financial advisers. We're going to do that whether it's boom or bust. We're building new data centers. We're building new agile. We're going to the cloud.

是的。所以我認為，邁克，我真正看待它的方式可能不是——它不像你想像的那樣受到繁榮和蕭條的影響。因此，我們將機會隔離開來——我們宣布我們將聘請黑人財務顧問。無論是繁榮還是蕭條，我們都會這樣做。我們正在建設新的數據中心。我們正在構建新的敏捷。我們要去雲端。

So I think it doesn't really change that much over time. I just think you'll probably see our investments go up over time, not go down. We can get plenty of organic growth opportunities, which we want to invest in.

所以我認為隨著時間的推移它並沒有真正改變。我只是認為您可能會看到我們的投資隨著時間的推移而增加，而不是減少。我們可以獲得大量的有機增長機會，我們想投資這些機會。

And then how much are you spending in climate? Your 66 pages CEO letter was, I guess that's like -- could be 1/3 of a book almost. But you really had the table on climate risk and what you guys need to do. How much are you actually spending? And what's the payback on that spending for shareholders? Or is this really an ESG reputational benefit you're looking for?

然後你在氣候方面花了多少錢？你的 66 頁 CEO 信，我猜這差不多是一本書的 1/3。但是你們真的有關於氣候風險和你們需要做的事情的表格。你實際花了多少錢？對股東來說，這筆支出的回報是什麼？或者這真的是您正在尋找的 ESG 聲譽利益嗎？

So I'll start there, Mike. And then Jamie, you can chime in. But climate is a long game obviously. And we're investing a lot of effort in our ESG initiatives, not only because they have a positive impact on society and communities but because they're also important to our clients, customers and our shareholders.

所以我會從那裡開始，邁克。然後傑米，你可以插話。但氣候顯然是一場漫長的比賽。我們在 ESG 計劃上投入了大量精力，不僅因為它們對社會和社區產生積極影響，而且因為它們對我們的客戶、客戶和股東也很重要。

So we don't exactly think about it that way, Mike. But we've also invested in multiple teams to help clients through the transition. And we do recognize it's a transition, and clients appreciate that. We've also made the Paris-aligned financing commitment last year. And we're going to release our annual ESG report next month, so you'll see more there.

所以我們並不完全是這樣想的，邁克。但我們也投資了多個團隊來幫助客戶完成過渡。我們確實認識到這是一個過渡，客戶對此表示讚賞。去年，我們還做出了與巴黎一致的融資承諾。我們將在下個月發布我們的年度 ESG 報告，所以你會在那裡看到更多。

And then we also committed to finance $200 billion towards climate action and sustainable development, and we're continuing to grow those efforts as well. And in fact, your question is quite timely because we're planning to make an ambitious announcement tomorrow about long-term scaling of our financing efforts here. So much more detail to come shortly on that. But Jamie, I don't know if you want to add anything.

然後我們還承諾為氣候行動和可持續發展提供 2000 億美元的資金，我們也在繼續加大這些努力。事實上，你的問題非常及時，因為我們計劃明天就我們在這裡的融資工作的長期規模發表雄心勃勃的公告。很快就會有更多詳細信息。但是傑米，我不知道你是否想補充什麼。

That's great.

那太棒了。

Your next question comes from the line of Jim Mitchell with Seaport Global.

您的下一個問題來自 Seaport Global 的 Jim Mitchell。

Just maybe a question on the bank SLR, which I think was a bit more of a constraint even than the firm-wide SLR. Just I guess 2 questions related to that. What kind of flexibility do you have to kind of manage the difference between the 2 moving assets out of the bank perhaps? And then just if you have any updates or thoughts on potential changes that regulators are discussing to kind of give maybe relief 2.0 in a more permanent sense on the SLR.

可能只是關於銀行 SLR 的問題，我認為這甚至比公司範圍的 SLR 更具約束力。只是我猜有兩個與此相關的問題。你有什麼樣的靈活性來管理這兩種資產轉移出銀行之間的差異？然後，如果您對監管機構正在討論的潛在變化有任何更新或想法，可能會在 SLR 上提供更永久意義上的緩解 2.0。

So the bank SLR, I mean, broadly speaking, it's going to be the same levers. We do have a little bit more flexibility, as you note, because we can move things. We can inject capital into the bank from the holding company. So it's a little bit more flexible. But generally speaking, the constraints and the levers are the same.

所以銀行 SLR，我的意思是，從廣義上講，這將是相同的槓桿。正如你所說，我們確實有更多的靈活性，因為我們可以移動東西。我們可以從控股公司向銀行注資。所以它更靈活一些。但一般來說，約束和槓桿是一樣的。

And then in terms of changes, we know what you know. And so we look forward to a proposal. The only thing I can mention is, of course, the difference between the U.S. and Europe on Basel as it relates to SLR is there, it's a 3% plus half year GSIB. And so we have a constant 2% buffer. And so -- and with that, you get the flexibility in a Basel-compliant way to exclude deposits at central banks for a period of time. So it's possible that it could look something like that, but we don't know.

然後在變化方面，我們知道你所知道的。所以我們期待一個提案。當然，我唯一可以提到的是，美國和歐洲在巴塞爾與 SLR 相關的差異就在那裡，它是 3% 加半年的 GSIB。所以我們有一個恆定的 2% 緩衝區。因此，您可以靈活地以符合巴塞爾協議的方式在一段時間內排除中央銀行的存款。所以它可能看起來像那樣，但我們不知道。

So I think there's too much focus there. We run the business and do a great job servicing clients over time. We manage 20 years -- God knows how many different capital liquidity trends. We have multiple levers to pull all the time to do that while serving our clients. If we've got to adjust our strategy going forward, so be it. We'll probably be fine.

所以我認為那裡有太多的關注點。隨著時間的推移，我們經營業務並為客戶提供出色的服務。我們管理著 20 年——天知道有多少不同的資本流動性趨勢。在為客戶服務的同時，我們有多個槓桿可以一直拉動來做到這一點。如果我們必須調整我們的戰略，那就這樣吧。我們可能會沒事的。

I think the question you should be asking isn't what it means for us, it's what it means to the marketplace. I've already mentioned several times, we have $1.5 trillion of cash and marketable securities, which we cannot deploy in a whole bunch of different ways into the marketplace with repo or just financing positions or helping people because of these constraints. So the constraints are more of a constraint on the economy than they are on JPMorgan Chase. We will find a way, regardless of any constraints, to do things.

我認為你應該問的問題不是它對我們意味著什麼，而是它對市場意味著什麼。我已經多次提到，我們擁有 1.5 萬億美元的現金和有價證券，由於這些限制，我們無法通過回購或僅融資頭寸或幫助人們以多種不同方式將其部署到市場中。因此，與摩根大通相比，這些限制對經濟的限制更多。我們會找到一種方法，不受任何限制，做事。

The other thing is the GSIB, the SLR, they're all these bubble things, they need to be recalibrated. And I think people should be asking why -- how would you be recalibrated to do the best job for the United States and the people in the United States, not for JPMorgan. JPMorgan will be fine either way.

另一件事是 GSIB、SLR，它們都是泡沫，需要重新校準。我認為人們應該問為什麼——你將如何重新調整，為美國和美國人民做最好的工作，而不是為摩根大通。無論哪種方式，摩根大通都會很好。

Your next question comes from the line of Gerard Cassidy with RBC.

您的下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Gerard Cassidy。

A question, I apologize if you addressed this. I had to jump off for a minute here. But can you share with us on the service -- mortgage servicing business, it looked like you had a small loss this quarter similar to the fourth quarter. Can you tell us some of the metrics that went into why the servicing business recorded a small loss?

一個問題，如果你解決了這個問題，我很抱歉。我不得不在這裡跳一分鐘。但是您能否與我們分享一下服務 - 抵押服務業務，看起來您本季度的虧損與第四季度相似。您能否告訴我們一些衡量服務業務為何錄得小額虧損的指標？

Oh gosh, Gerard. I'm not even sure. But Reggie and the team can follow up with you.

哦，天哪，杰拉德。我什至不確定。但雷吉和團隊可以跟進你。

Okay. Very good. And the second question has to do with when we go back to the day 1 loan loss reserves established in January 1, 2020, for you and your peers under CECL accounting, if I recall, I think your loan loss reserves to total loans at the time were approximately 1.87%. Today, they're approximately 2.42%. I know you guys gave some color on your outlook for what you think credit will look like. You're being a little more conservative. But can you share with us what would it take to bring the reserves back down to the day 1 levels that we saw in January 1, 2020?

好的。很好。第二個問題與我們回到 2020 年 1 月 1 日建立的第一天貸款損失準備金有關，對於您和您在 CECL 會計下的同行，如果我記得，我認為您的貸款損失準備金佔總貸款的比例時間約為 1.87%。今天，它們約為 2.42%。我知道你們對你們認為信用的樣子給出了一些看法。你有點保守。但是，您能否與我們分享如何將儲備金恢復到我們在 2020 年 1 月 1 日看到的第一天的水平？

Well, it's very difficult to try to compare today to -- just taking our balance sheet today, taking the profile of our portfolio today and compare it to CECL day 1 because we are very far away from that, in fact, in a very healthy way. So that's very difficult to do.

嗯，很難將今天與今天的資產負債表進行比較，將我們今天的投資組合概況與 CECL 第 1 天進行比較，因為我們離這一點還很遠，事實上，在一個非常健康的情況下方法。所以這很難做到。

What I will say is that it is true that things have continued to improve even since we closed our process in the first quarter. And we obviously expect things to be -- we expect the recovery to be robust in the second half of the year. And so if we continue to see that, if we continue to see labor markets recover, if we continue to see vaccine rollout be successful, we would have future releases from here.

我要說的是，即使我們在第一季度結束了我們的流程，情況確實在繼續改善。我們顯然預計事情會發生——我們預計下半年的複蘇將強勁。因此，如果我們繼續看到這一點，如果我們繼續看到勞動力市場復甦，如果我們繼續看到疫苗推出成功，我們將在未來發布。

And -- but I would note importantly that the $7 billion, that is the distance between our reserve and the base case, is just for context. We will always have weightings on alternative scenarios. And so all else equal, which is there's a lot in the all-else equal bucket, but we would release something less than $7 billion. So difficult to compare back to CECL day 1, but there could be further releases ahead.

而且——但我要指出，重要的是，70 億美元，即我們的儲備金和基本情況之間的距離，只是為了說明情況。我們將始終對替代方案進行加權。所以其他條件相同，即所有其他條件都相同，但我們會釋放不到 70 億美元的資金。很難與 CECL 第 1 天進行比較，但未來可能會有更多版本。

One of the negatives to CECL, which I pointed out right at the beginning, that we spent a lot of time on these calls describing something which is virtually irrelevant for the bank, which is these are multiple scenarios, hypothetical, probability-based. And obviously, the more volatile environment, the more volatile these numbers.

我一開始就指出，CECL 的一個負面因素是，我們在這些電話上花了很多時間來描述與銀行幾乎無關的事情，即這些是多種情景，假設的，基於概率的。顯然，環境越不穩定，這些數字就越不穩定。

If a base case was $20 billion, and we now have something like 30, we're not going to be taking down a lot of reserves now because you always -- as Jen said, you're always going to have an extreme adverse case. Think of it like kind of a CCAR test, and you always have a percentage of reserves up for that permanently. And so hopefully -- I mean my view is we should waste a lot less time in CECL. That makes almost no difference to the company in general.

如果基本情況是 200 億美元，而我們現在有大約 30 美元，我們現在不會減少很多準備金，因為你總是 - 正如 Jen 所說，你總是會有極端不利的情況.把它想像成一種 CCAR 測試，你總是有一定比例的準備金永久用於該測試。所以希望 - 我的意思是我的觀點是我們應該在 CECL 上浪費更少的時間。總的來說，這對公司幾乎沒有影響。

And then back on your servicing point, I got the answer. It's updates to the MSR model, so -- HPI updates, prepay updates. So it's less about the operation and more about the MSR model update.

然後回到您的維修點，我得到了答案。它是對 MSR 模型的更新，所以 -- HPI 更新、預付費更新。所以不是關於操作，而是關於 MSR 模型更新。

Your next question comes from the line of Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank.

您的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Matt O'Connor。

I wanted to ask about the CEO letter, where there was talk about being open to fintech deals, which is something you've talked about in the past. But what type of deals would you be interested in? And I guess could it be material to JPMorgan as we think about whether it's a strategy or a financial impact?

我想問一下 CEO 的信，其中談到了對金融科技交易持開放態度，這是你過去談到的。但是您會對哪種類型的交易感興趣？我想這對摩根大通來說是否重要，因為我們考慮它是一種戰略還是財務影響？

So remember, we're after paying a steady, careful dividend and stuff like that. We much prefer to invest in our business organically, including the acquisitions than buy back stock. We're buying back stock because our cup runneth over. We have 13.6% capital to risk-weighted -- to advanced risk-weighted assets. We're earning a tremendous sum of money, and we really have no option right now.

所以請記住，我們在支付穩定、謹慎的股息和類似的東西之後。我們更願意有機地投資我們的業務，包括收購而不是回購股票。我們正在回購股票，因為我們的杯子用完了。我們擁有 13.6% 的資本風險加權資產——高級風險加權資產。我們賺了一大筆錢，我們現在真的別無選擇。

But I think the door is open to anything that makes sense. So we've already done InstaMed, which is an electronic digital payments platform between providers and consumers in health care. We did 55ip, which is a tax way -- a tax-efficient way of managing money. And we're looking at tons of things ourselves. Some, we're building ourselves like Dynamo. Some, we're going to -- in part with other people. We've got investments in probably 100 different hundreds companies at this point to be either partner with or alike, but we're completely open-minded. It could be payments. It could be asset management. It could be adjacency. It could be data. It could be anything like that. It cannot be a U.S. bank. So we're just reminding people, if you got great ideas for us, let us know.

但我認為大門對任何有意義的事情都是敞開的。所以我們已經完成了 InstaMed，這是一個醫療保健提供者和消費者之間的電子數字支付平台。我們做了 55ip，這是一種稅收方式——一種節稅的資金管理方式。我們自己也在研究很多東西。有些，我們正在像 Dynamo 一樣建設自己。一些，我們將 - 部分與其他人一起。目前，我們已經對大約 100 家不同的數百家公司進行了投資，可以成為合作夥伴或類似公司，但我們的思想完全開放。可能是付款。可能是資產管理。可能是鄰接。可能是數據。可能是這樣的。它不能是美國銀行。所以我們只是提醒人們，如果你對我們有好的想法，請告訴我們。

And is the mentality in fintech specifically, is it to potentially accelerate some of the investments that you would have done on your own or to add capabilities or maybe protect what you already have?

尤其是金融科技的心態，它是否有可能加速你自己完成的一些投資，或者增加能力，或者保護你已經擁有的東西？

Well, it's a little of everything because you see us adding Chase my plan and Chase my loan and obviously see competing a little bit of Buy Now, Pay Later. You see us doing Chase offers and compete with people. You see us doing Zelle payments. And we've got tons of fabulous stuff coming. We did do invest a couple of years ago. We had a very good quarter. We're adding robo-investing, which is just getting going.

好吧，這只是一切，因為您看到我們添加了“追逐我的計劃”和“追逐我的貸款”，並且顯然看到了一些“立即購買，以後付款”的競爭。您會看到我們提供 Chase 報價並與人競爭。你看到我們在做 Zelle 付款。我們有很多很棒的東西要來了。幾年前我們確實進行了投資。我們有一個非常好的季度。我們正在添加機器人投資，這才剛剛開始。

So we're adding a broad set of capabilities across the full spectrum. And you're going to see a lot more. And you're going to see personalization of apps. And if you go into the payment system, you're going to see global wallets. You're going to see tons of stuff that's coming.

因此，我們將在整個範圍內添加廣泛的功能。你會看到更多。您將看到應用程序的個性化。如果你進入支付系統，你會看到全球錢包。你會看到大量即將到來的東西。

And like I said, the fintech has done a great job. I'd point to add that they live under different constraints. But they've done a great job getting rid of pain points, making automated, digitizing things, using the cloud. It's incumbent upon us to go faster to the cloud. We already have 150 major AI projects. But my guess is in 5 years, it will be 1,000 AI projects.

就像我說的，金融科技做得很好。我要補充一點，他們生活在不同的限制條件下。但他們在消除痛點、使事物自動化、數字化、使用雲方面做得很好。我們有責任更快地進入雲端。我們已經有 150 個主要的人工智能項目。但我的猜測是在 5 年內，將有 1000 個 AI 項目。

So we're going as fast as we can to do a great job for customers. And obviously, fintech will be a challenge. There's a lot of money there. They're very smart people. I want to be clear. We're not wishing regulations on them like on us. I think it would be bad for America. But we are wishing for a level playing field when it comes to ramp certain products and certain services.

因此，我們將盡可能快地為客戶做好工作。顯然，金融科技將是一個挑戰。那裡有很多錢。他們是非常聰明的人。我想清楚。我們不希望像我們一樣對他們進行監管。我認為這對美國不利。但是，在提升某些產品和某些服務方面，我們希望有一個公平的競爭環境。

I, for one, think it's grossly unfair that a neobank can have a small checking account and earn $200 in Durbin fees, and we earn $100. That just isn't right. And I go on and on and on about some of the unfair things, but look, let the regulars do it. I'm not expecting any change. We will just adjust our strategies accordingly.

一方面，我認為新銀行可以擁有一個小支票賬戶並賺取 200 美元的德賓費用，而我們賺取 100 美元，這是非常不公平的。那是不對的。我一直在談論一些不公平的事情，但是看，讓常客來做吧。我不期待任何改變。我們將相應地調整我們的策略。

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Kleinhanzl with KBW.

您的下一個問題來自 Brian Kleinhanzl 與 KBW 的一行。

Just a quick question. I mean as we start to look out to forward rates and market, kind of implying Fed moving somewhat in the near term or intermediate term, I mean how are you guys thinking about deposit betas this cycle? And kind of what's included in your NII sensitivity, both on the consumer and commercial deposits?

只是一個快速的問題。我的意思是，當我們開始關注遠期利率和市場時，有點暗示美聯儲在短期或中期會有所變動，我的意思是你們如何看待這個週期的存款貝塔？您的 NII 敏感性中包含哪些內容，包括消費者存款和商業存款？

Sure. So...

當然。所以...

So I think the way to answer is the betas have gamma, meaning they change over time. And we have our best guess in numbers that Jen gave you. So obviously, the beta is going up all the time, and then it levels off.

所以我認為回答的方法是 beta 有 gamma，這意味著它們會隨著時間而變化。我們對 Jen 給你的數字有最好的猜測。很明顯，beta 一直在上升，然後趨於平穩。

That's right. And so the betas have gamma, like I'd say that -- you can think of it as being nonlinear, meaning the beta for the first 100 basis points will be lower than the beta for the second and third increments of 100 basis points. And so from here, on the retail side specifically, the first 100 basis points will be very valuable because there is a lower beta associated with it. So that's really where we see the benefit in NII with short rates in an environment with low loan growth.

這是正確的。所以 beta 有 gamma，就像我說的那樣——你可以認為它是非線性的，這意味著前 100 個基點的 beta 將低於第二個和第三個 100 個基點增量的 beta。因此，從這裡開始，特別是在零售方面，前 100 個基點將非常有價值，因為與之相關的 beta 較低。因此，在貸款增長低的環境中，這確實是我們看到短期利率的 NII 帶來的好處的地方。

Your next question comes from the line of Charles Peabody with Portales Partners.

您的下一個問題來自 Charles Peabody 與 Portales Partners 的對話。

Can you hear me now?

你能聽到我嗎？

Go ahead. Yes, we can hear you. Go ahead.

前進。是的，我們可以聽到你的聲音。前進。

Sorry about that. I had a question about the impact that negative rates at the short end of the yield curve might have on your entity. Specifically, if we -- you touched a little bit on the IOER rate and the overnight repo rate being raised. Would that have any impact on your market-related NII if they had to raise by 5 basis points?

對於那個很抱歉。我有一個關於收益率曲線短期負利率可能對您的實體產生的影響的問題。具體來說，如果我們——你對 IOER 利率和隔夜回購利率有所提高。如果他們必須提高 5 個基點，這會對您的市場相關 NII 產生任何影響嗎？

Secondly, if we do get negative rates at the short end, is that incorporated in your $55 billion NII guidance? And then thirdly, if we do get negative rates at the short end, does that have any implications for what loan demand might look like?

其次，如果我們確實在短期內得到負利率，那是否包含在您 550 億美元的 NII 指導中？第三，如果我們確實在短期內獲得負利率，這對貸款需求可能會產生什麼影響？

Sure. So I'll just start by saying while we have seen repo go negative at times, it's been quarterly. And so we don't expect short rates to be negative for any longer period of time or -- and we certainly haven't seen spikes, which is something you would worry about more.

當然。所以我首先要說，雖然我們看到回購有時會變成負數，但它是每季度一次的。因此，我們預計短期利率不會在更長的時間內為負，或者 - 我們當然沒有看到峰值，這是你會更擔心的事情。

I think with the amount of capacity in the money market complex and the fact that the Fed increase their RRP facility, now that facility is at 0, so that certainly is supportive of ensuring short rates don't go negative for any meaningful period of time. They also obviously could increase that. And then for us, I would say, not a meaningful impact because, obviously, we have 10 basis points of IOER as an option for us, but we do trade around it.

我認為鑑於貨幣市場綜合體的容量以及美聯儲增加其 RRP 工具的事實，現在該工具為 0，因此這肯定有助於確保短期利率不會在任何有意義的時期內變為負數.他們顯然也可以增加這一點。然後對我們來說，我想說，這不是一個有意義的影響，因為很明顯，我們有 10 個基點的 IOER 作為我們的選擇，但我們確實圍繞它進行交易。

I will just add, the why is far more important than the number. Like NII obviously, like in trading, it goes in and out, the whole thing has been equal. No, it just shows up in a different place. But if you go negative NII because you're going back into recession because there's a negative variance, that's a whole different issue than it was a temporary timing thing. I would tell you, we would expect rates to be moving up over time, and we expect a rather healthy, very strong economy.

我只是補充一下，為什麼比數字更重要。顯然，就像 NII 一樣，就像在交易中一樣，它進進出出，整個事情都是平等的。不，它只是出現在不同的地方。但是，如果你因為負方差而重新陷入衰退而成為負 NII，那麼這是一個完全不同的問題，而不是暫時的時間問題。我會告訴你，我們預計利率會隨著時間的推移而上升，我們預計經濟會相當健康、非常強勁。

Yes. Yes. And what we've seen so far on the short end is not unhealthy or something we're worried about. It's a dynamic of so much cash chasing the supply.

是的。是的。到目前為止，我們在短期內看到的並不是不健康或我們擔心的事情。這是大量現金追逐供應的動態。

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Lim with Societe General.

您的下一個問題來自法國興業銀行的 Andrew Lim。

So just circling back to the SLR, despite issuing 1.5 billion preferreds, you still lost about 30 basis points on your SLR. I'm just wondering how you think about the ratio 2 or 3 quarters out from now, whether issuing preferreds and having your discussions with wholesale depositors is there's going to be enough to put a floor on the SLR at 5.5%, or whether you're going to have to pull harder on that, on those levers or have to pull hard on other levers.

所以只是回到 SLR，儘管發行了 15 億個優先股，你的 SLR 仍然損失了大約 30 個基點。我只是想知道你如何看待從現在起 2 或 3 個季度後的比率，是否發行優先股並與批發儲戶討論是否足以將 SLR 設定為 5.5%，或者你是否'重新必須在那些槓桿上用力拉，或者在其他槓桿上用力拉。

Yes. So the minimum is 5%, so we have some room. Naturally, we will have a buffer above the minimum as you always need to when you have binary consequences of going low. So you can think about some management buffer above that, but we do still have room at 5.5%. And we do think that we can manage this at this point through issuing. We'll be in the market again with preferreds as well as the conversations that we've had with clients. So far, they have not been disruptive. We're hopeful that, that remains the case and that we can manage this.

是的。所以最小值是 5%，所以我們有一些空間。自然地，我們將有一個高於最小值的緩衝區，因為當你有變低的二元後果時，你總是需要這樣做。因此，您可以考慮在此之上設置一些管理緩衝，但我們仍有 5.5% 的空間。我們確實認為我們可以通過發布來管理這一點。我們將帶著偏好以及我們與客戶的對話再次進入市場。到目前為止，它們還沒有造成破壞。我們希望，情況仍然如此，我們可以做到這一點。

Okay. So what was your level of comfort for the buffer above the 5%? That's my follow-on.

好的。那麼你對高於 5% 的緩衝的舒適度是多少？那是我的後續。

And then just another question. You gave an update a couple of quarters ago, saying that you had a buffer of -- or was it, let's say, excess provisions of about $10 billion versus your best case scenario economic outlook. Obviously, you've released a lot of provisions since then. Can you give an update on what that figure is now?

然後只是另一個問題。幾個季度前你提供了更新，說你有緩衝——或者說，與你最好的經濟前景相比，你有大約 100 億美元的超額準備金。顯然，從那時起，你們已經發布了很多規定。您能否提供有關該數字現在的最新信息？

Sure. So you can think about a buffer on the SLR of, call it 25 basis points. There, it is important to note, something like AOCI is something that we have to incorporate into our thinking and the impact of AOCI as that's part of Tier 1 capital. So we need to have a buffer to make sure that we can manage through any noise we might see there. So that's why we have a buffer, and 25 basis points is probably a reasonable one to think about.

當然。所以你可以想一想SLR上的一個緩衝，稱之為25個基點。在那裡，重要的是要注意，像 AOCI 這樣的東西是我們必須納入我們的思考和 AOCI 的影響的東西，因為它是一級資本的一部分。因此，我們需要有一個緩衝區，以確保我們能夠處理我們可能在那裡看到的任何噪音。所以這就是我們有緩衝的原因，25 個基點可能是一個合理的考慮。

In terms of the -- on reserves, the distance between where we are in the base case, as I said in my prepared remarks, that's now $7 billion. What's interesting to note is that, that was $10 billion. It was then $9 billion. And we've released $8 billion, and it's still $7 billion. So the -- all of the scenarios have been moving. And there are lots -- there's a lot that goes into how we think about reserves. We've always just provided that as context for everyone, particularly last year as we were managing through so much uncertainty in terms of the inputs into our reserves.

就儲備而言，我們在基本情況下的距離，正如我在準備好的評論中所說，現在是 70 億美元。有趣的是，那是 100 億美元。當時是90億美元。我們已經釋放了 80 億美元，而且仍然是 70 億美元。所以——所有的場景都在變化。而且有很多 - 我們如何看待儲備有很多。我們一直只是將其作為每個人的背景，尤其是去年，因為我們在儲備投入方面面臨如此多的不確定性。

So I wouldn't put a lot of weight into that because what I also said on the $7 billion is that you shouldn't think about that as available for release because we will always have some weighting on alternative scenarios. And so even if everything plays out exactly as we expect, based upon where we closed the books for the first quarter, it would be something less than $7 billion.

所以我不會對此給予太多重視，因為我在 70 億美元上也說過，你不應該認為它可以發布，因為我們總是會對替代方案有一定的權重。因此，即使一切都如我們預期的那樣，根據我們第一季度的收賬情況，它也將不到 70 億美元。

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo Securities.

您的下一個問題來自富國證券的 Mike Mayo。

I'm still wrestling with the deposit conundrum. So I guess your national deposit share is something like 12%. And over the last year, I think your incremental deposit share gain is 20%. In other words, the industry deposits were up around $3 trillion, and your deposits are up $600 billion. So I'm just wondering how much of that was due to QE, and how much of that is due to organic growth. And maybe you can fill us in because you're building out the branches in the lower 48 states, and you're expanding commercial bankers and trying to build up all this organic growth at a time when you can't really monetize those deposits.

我仍在與存款難題搏鬥。所以我猜你的國家存款份額大概是 12%。在過去的一年裡，我認為您的增量存款份額收益是 20%。換句話說，行業存款增加了大約 3 萬億美元，而您的存款增加了 6000 億美元。所以我只是想知道其中有多少是由於量化寬鬆，有多少是由於有機增長。也許您可以填補我們的空缺，因為您正在美國本土的 48 個州建立分支機構，並且您正在擴大商業銀行家，並試圖在您無法真正將這些存款貨幣化的時候建立所有這些有機增長。

Sure. So first of all, as we always say, we're running the place for the long term. And we don't expect this challenge to be a long-term challenge, maybe a short to medium term but not a long term. And then I'll just say that yes, there was certainly some organic growth, but it is Fed balance sheet and bank lending that create deposits.

當然。所以首先，正如我們常說的，我們是長期經營這個地方的。我們不認為這個挑戰是長期的挑戰，可能是中短期的，但不是長期的。然後我會說，是的，肯定有一些有機增長，但創造存款的是美聯儲的資產負債表和銀行貸款。

And so that's what we are focused on. And we do think, given what we expect here, that we can manage it. So -- and it certainly isn't going to change the way we think about market expansion or otherwise as that is long-term franchise value.

這就是我們所關注的。鑑於我們在這裡的期望，我們確實認為我們可以管理它。所以 - 它肯定不會改變我們對市場擴張或其他方面的看法，因為這是長期的特許經營價值。

I think Jen, another to kind of -- Mike, the $600 million -- and it's really hard to see that. We think we're growing actual share in almost every billion deposits, but $500 million to $600 million was the Fed balance sheet. And we're a big wholesale bank and a big consumer bank. So obviously, a big portion of that shows up inside our company. And again, we try to -- the new brands are doing great, but they're not going to move the needle quite like the Fed adding $3 trillion to deposits in the system.

我認為 Jen 是另一個人——邁克，6 億美元——真的很難看到這一點。我們認為我們在幾乎每十億存款中的實際份額都在增長，但美聯儲的資產負債表是 5 億到 6 億美元。我們是一家大型批發銀行和一家大型消費銀行。很明顯，其中很大一部分出現在我們公司內部。再一次，我們試圖——新品牌做得很好，但它們不會像美聯儲在系統中增加 3 萬億美元那樣發揮作用。

That's right.

這是正確的。

And just a quick update on the build-out into the 48 lower states branches, you said, by the middle of this year.

你說，到今年年中，快速更新到 48 個較低州的分支機構。

Yes. Yes. So we'll be in all lower 48 by the end of July. Is that right? Yes, Reggie is confirming for me. We will be in all lower 48 by the end of July. We opened about 75 branches in market expansion. Last year, we got a little bit slowed down by COVID, but that's going to be about 150 this year.

是的。是的。因此，到 7 月底，我們將全部降至 48 歲以下。那正確嗎？是的，雷吉正在為我確認。到 7 月底，我們將全部降到 48 歲。我們在市場拓展中開設了大約 75 家分店。去年，我們因新冠疫情而放慢了速度，但今年將達到 150 人左右。

So we remain super excited about that and all the opportunities that brings across the company, not just in deposits, of course, because it brings incredible value to the commercial bank and to the private bank. And so the business case there, if you will, is not just about deposits.

因此，我們仍然對此感到非常興奮，以及為整個公司帶來的所有機會，當然不僅僅是存款，因為它為商業銀行和私人銀行帶來了難以置信的價值。因此，如果您願意的話，那裡的商業案例不僅僅是關於存款。

Your next question comes from the line of Erika Najarian with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

您的下一個問題來自美銀美林的 Erika Najarian。

Apologies for prolonging the call. I just got this question a lot on Bloomberg from investors. I just wanted to reask the first question another way. It seems like we have been waiting for recalibration on the GSIB for some time now. On the other hand, clearly, the expansion of your balance sheet comes with additional revenue generation and market share taking and some opportunities. And so investors are wondering, if we don't get any sort of calibration that's meaningful and that CET1 floor does have to move up from 12%, what is the sensitivity of the normalized ROTCE outlook, if any at all, if that 12% does have to move up in 50 basis points increment?

為延長通話時間而道歉。我剛剛從投資者那裡得到了很多關於彭博的這個問題。我只是想以另一種方式重新提出第一個問題。看來我們已經等待 GSIB 重新校準一段時間了。另一方面，很明顯，資產負債表的擴張伴隨著額外的創收和市場份額以及一些機會。所以投資者想知道，如果我們沒有得到任何有意義的校準，並且 CET1 下限確實必須從 12% 上升，那麼標準化 ROTCE 前景的敏感性是多少，如果有的話，如果有的話，如果那 12%是否必須以 50 個基點的增量向上移動？

Okay. So if the 12% has to move up, Erika, that would obviously have an impact. But there is so much between here and there and that being a reality that we can't really comment on it because not only -- I know we've been waiting for GSIB recalibration for a long time. But it has been made very clear that GSIB recalibration will be part of the Basel III endgame, which we have also been waiting for, for a very long time. And so there will be potential offsets that we yet are not -- we're unable to manage because we don't know what they are yet. So we continue to wait for Basel III endgame.

好的。因此，如果 12% 必須上升，Erika，那顯然會產生影響。但是這里和那里之間有很多事情，這是一個我們無法真正評論的現實，因為不僅 - 我知道我們已經等待 GSIB 重新校準很長時間了。但很明顯，GSIB 重新校準將成為巴塞爾協議 III 殘局的一部分，我們也一直在等待很長時間。所以會有一些我們還沒有的潛在抵消——我們無法管理，因為我們還不知道它們是什麼。所以我們繼續等待巴塞爾協議 III 的最後階段。

And then as I said, we do believe we can manage the stress capital buffer. Again, it's scenario dependent, but we do believe we can manage that to be closer to 2.5%, which helps an awful lot in terms of an offset to GSIB constraints. So we are thinking about that 12% number until we know something different.

然後正如我所說，我們確實相信我們可以管理壓力資本緩衝。同樣，這取決於場景，但我們確實相信我們可以將其控制在接近 2.5% 的水平，這在抵消 GSIB 約束方面有很大幫助。所以我們一直在考慮這 12% 的數字，直到我們知道一些不同的東西。

Yes. And I'll just add, we're going to finally kind of keep it at 12%. And we're pretty sure we can do it, so I'm not that worried about it. But I don't know what the confusion is. If it did go up by -- if we're earning 20% tangible equity and our capital goes up by 5% and we get no return to 5%, our ROE goes to 19%.

是的。我要補充一點，我們最終會將其保持在 12%。而且我們很確定我們可以做到，所以我並不擔心。但我不知道混亂是什麼。如果它確實上升了——如果我們賺取了 20% 的有形股本，我們的資本上升了 5%，而我們沒有得到 5% 的回報，那麼我們的 ROE 就會達到 19%。

So I don't understand the confusion. The underlying results are still fabulous and great, and you have slight low returns. But I even think that will be temporary. We will, over time, find strategies and tactics to get returns to compare to our shareholders. But the most important thing of those returns, we have a great business, great branches, great products, great services, good margins, good service, good apps, good controls, good -- and that's what we really build all the time.

所以我不明白這種混亂。潛在的結果仍然非常棒，而且你的回報率很低。但我什至認為這將是暫時的。隨著時間的推移，我們將找到獲得回報的戰略和策略，以與我們的股東進行比較。但這些回報中最重要的是，我們擁有出色的業務、出色的分支機構、出色的產品、出色的服務、良好的利潤、良好的服務、良好的應用程序、良好的控制、良好的——這就是我們一直在構建的東西。

And this other stuff of just managing around capital constraints that -- it's a shame that this is -- I mean this is not the way to run a railroad anymore. We're spending time on this call on CECL and SLR, and it's a shame. And it does distract from growing the American economy. I've mentioned over and over, we have $2.2 trillion deposits, $1 trillion loans, $1.5 trillion of cash and marketable securities, much of which cannot be deployed to intermediate or lend. Now how conservative do you want to get?

還有其他只是圍繞資本限制進行管理的東西——這是一種恥辱——我的意思是這不再是經營鐵路的方式。我們在 CECL 和 SLR 的電話會議上花費了時間，這很遺憾。它確實分散了美國經濟增長的注意力。我一再提到，我們有 2.2 萬億美元的存款、1 萬億美元的貸款、1.5 萬億美元的現金和有價證券，其中大部分不能用於中介或借貸。現在你想保守到什麼程度？

No, I agree. I think the market needed to hear that.

不，我同意。我認為市場需要聽到這一點。

There are no further questions at this time.

目前沒有其他問題。

Thank you. Thanks, everyone. Thanks, operator.

謝謝你。感謝大家。謝謝，接線員。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Thank you for participating in today's call. You may now disconnect.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。您現在可以斷開連接。