摩根大通 (JPM) 2016 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen.

早上好，女士們，先生們。

Welcome to JPMorgan Chase's fourth-quarter and full-year 2016 earnings call.

歡迎參加摩根大通 2016 年第四季度和全年財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to JPMorgan Chase's Chairman and CEO, Jamie Dimon, and Chief Financial Officer, Marianne Lake.

在這個時候，我想把電話轉給摩根大通的董事長兼首席執行官傑米戴蒙和首席財務官瑪麗安萊克。

Ms. Lake, please go ahead.

萊克女士，請繼續。

Thanks, operator.

謝謝，接線員。

Good morning, everybody.

大家早上好。

Happy New Year.

新年快樂。

I'll take you through the presentation which is available on our website.

我將帶您瀏覽我們網站上提供的演示文稿。

Please refer to the disclaimer at the back of the presentation.

請參閱演示文稿背面的免責聲明。

So starting on page 1, we had a strong end to the year, with record net income for a fourth quarter of $6.7 billion, EPS of $1.71, and return on tangible common equity of 14% on revenue of $24.3 billion, reflecting strong performance broadly across our businesses in a more constructive environment.

因此，從第 1 頁開始，我們的年末表現強勁，第四季度的淨利潤為 67 億美元，每股收益為 1.71 美元，有形普通股回報率為 14%，收入為 243 億美元，反映了廣泛的強勁表現在更具建設性的環境中貫穿我們的業務。

You'll see on the page, a tax benefit of $475 million included in the result in the CIB, as we were able to utilize certain deferred tax assets.

您將在頁面上看到，CIB 的結果中包含 4.75 億美元的稅收優惠，因為我們能夠利用某些遞延稅項資產。

The quarter would still have been a record without that benefit.

如果沒有這種好處，本季度仍將是創紀錄的。

Highlights for the quarter included core loan growth of 12% with strength across businesses, continued double-digit consumer deposit growth, ending with deposits over $600 billion, and record card sales volume up 14% on continued strong momentum.

本季度的亮點包括核心貸款增長 12%，各項業務表現強勁，消費存款持續保持兩位數增長，最終存款超過 6000 億美元，信用卡銷量在持續強勁勢頭下創紀錄地增長 14%。

In addition, markets revenue was the highest on record for a fourth quarter, up 24% year-on-year, and credit performance remains, strong with net reserve releases across both consumer and wholesale.

此外，第四季度市場收入創歷史新高，同比增長 24%，信貸表現依然強勁，消費和批發的淨儲備釋放。

Moving on to page 2, and some more detail about the fourth quarter, revenue of $24.3 billion was up $600 million, or 2% year-on-year, driven by net interest income on the back of continued strong loan growth, as well as the impact of higher rates.

繼續第 2 頁，以及有關第四季度的更多細節，收入 243 億美元，同比增長 6 億美元，同比增長 2%，這得益於貸款持續強勁增長帶來的淨利息收入，以及更高利率的影響。

Non-interest revenue was flat year-on-year, with strength in markets offset by higher card new account acquisition costs.

非利息收入與去年同期持平，市場的強勁勢頭被更高的信用卡新賬戶獲取成本所抵消。

Adjusted expense of $13.6 billion was flat year-on-year, and this quarter's results included nearly $200 million of after-tax legal expense.

調整後的費用為 136 億美元，與去年同期持平，本季度的業績包括近 2 億美元的稅後法律費用。

Credit costs of $860 million in the quarter included a net reserve release of a little over $400 million across consumer and wholesale.

本季度 8.6 億美元的信貸成本包括消費和批發的 4 億多美元的淨儲備釋放。

Energy remained stable, and we saw modest releases in both oil and gas and metals and mining.

能源保持穩定，我們看到石油和天然氣、金屬和採礦業都有適度的釋放。

Shifting to the full year on page 3, another full-year record net income of $24.7 billion, and a return on tangible common equity of 13% on $99 billion of revenue.

在第 3 頁轉到全年，全年淨收入再創紀錄，達到 247 億美元，有形普通股的回報率為 13%，收入為 990 億美元。

And while net income was up 1%, our EPS of $6.19 was up more than that as we continued our disciplined capital return to shareholders.

雖然淨收入增長了 1%，但我們的每股收益為 6.19 美元，增幅超過了這一水平，因為我們繼續對股東進行嚴格的資本回報。

Revenue was up $2.5 billion, driven by NII, up $2.7 billion, on the back of loan growth and the impact of higher rates.

在貸款增長和利率上升的影響下，收入增加了 25 億美元，受 NII 推動，增加了 27 億美元。

Non-interest revenue remained flat year-on-year, reflecting strength in markets and funding card new account acquisitions, as well as lower asset management revenues.

非利息收入與去年同期持平，反映了市場和資金卡新賬戶收購的強勁以及資產管理收入的下降。

Adjusted expense for the year came in at $56 billion as expected, and our adjusted overhead ratio improved to 57%, as we continued to execute on and near the end of our strategic cost programs in CCB and CIB, as well as self-funding incremental investments in growth of nearly a billion dollars year-on-year.

由於我們在建行和興業銀行的戰略成本計劃結束時和接近尾聲繼續執行，以及自籌資金增量投資額同比增長近十億美元。

In addition, legal expense for the year was a modest positive.

此外，本年度的法律費用是適度的積極因素。

Credit costs for the year were $5.4 billion.

當年的信貸成本為 54 億美元。

Net charge-offs of $4.7 billion were in line with guidance, and included $270 million of charge-offs related to oil and gas and metals and mining.

47 億美元的淨沖銷符合指引，其中包括與石油和天然氣、金屬和採礦相關的 2.7 億美元沖銷。

And we added [$670] million of net reserves, reflecting builds in card and energy, largely offset by releases in mortgage.

我們增加了 [6.7 億美元] 的淨儲備，反映了銀行卡和能源的增加，很大程度上被抵押貸款的釋放所抵消。

Finally, net capital distributions for the year were approximately $15 billion, up $4 billion or 37%, including dividends of $1.88 a share, up 9%.

最後，本年度的淨資本分配約為 150 億美元，增長 40 億美元或 37%，其中包括每股 1.88 美元的股息，增長 9%。

Turning to page 4 and capital, we ended the year above 12% for both standardized and advanced fully phased-in CET1 ratios, in line with our expectations.

轉到第 4 頁和資本，我們在今年結束時標準化和先進的完全分階段 CET1 比率均高於 12%，符合我們的預期。

Net capital generation for the quarter, while positive, included a 16 basis point impact of higher rates on investment securities AOCI.

本季度的淨資本產生雖然是積極的，但包括較高利率對投資證券 AOCI 的 16 個基點影響。

The advanced ratio improved primarily due to lower account party and market risk, whereas standardized was up by less, reflecting the impact of high quality loan growth.

墊付率上升主要是由於賬戶方和市場風險降低，而標準化上升幅度較小，反映了高質量貸款增長的影響。

We've been disciplined managing our balance sheet, and our average balance sheet for the quarter was a little over $2.5 trillion, and $1.5 trillion of RWA.

我們一直在嚴格管理資產負債表，本季度的平均資產負債表略高於 2.5 萬億美元，風險加權資產為 1.5 萬億美元。

SLR was down slightly from the prior quarter at 6.5%, as our average balance sheet was higher this quarter, primarily driven by deposit.

SLR 比上一季度略有下降，為 6.5%，因為本季度我們的平均資產負債表較高，主要受存款推動。

Moving on to page 5, and consumer and community banking, consumer and community banking generated $2.4 billion of net income, and an ROE of 17%.

轉到第 5 頁，消費者和社區銀行業務、消費者和社區銀行業務產生了 24 億美元的淨收入，ROE 為 17%。

We grew deposits a record $60 billion year-over-year, up 11%, exceeding $600 billion.

我們的存款同比增長創紀錄的 600 億美元，增長 11%，超過 6000 億美元。

Core loans were up 14%, with mortgage up over 20%, but strength across all products, also up 11%, business banking up 9%, and card up 8%.

核心貸款增長了 14%，其中抵押貸款增長了 20% 以上，但所有產品的實力也都增長了 11%，商業銀行業務增長了 9%，信用卡增長了 8%。

We saw record card sales volume in the quarter, up 14% marking the strongest growth in a decade.

我們在本季度看到了創紀錄的信用卡銷量，增長了 14%，是十年來最強勁的增長。

Card new account originations were up 8%.

新開卡賬戶增加了 8%。

They were up 20% for the full year, driven by strong demand for new products, and nearly 80% of those accounts were opened through digital channels.

由於對新產品的強勁需求，它們全年增長了 20%，其中近 80% 的賬戶是通過數字渠道開設的。

Merchant processing volumes were up 10% year-on-year, and surpassed the $1 trillion mark last year and our active mobile customer base continues to grow and was up 16%.

商戶處理量同比增長 10%，去年突破 1 萬億美元大關，我們活躍的移動客戶群繼續增長，增長了 16%。

Revenue of $11 billion was down modestly year-on-year, reflecting a reduction in card revenue.

110 億美元的收入同比小幅下降，反映了信用卡收入的減少。

Recall that last year included a $160 million gain on the Square IPO.

回想一下，去年包括 Square IPO 的 1.6 億美元收益。

And in addition, strong momentum in card and auto was more than offset by the investments in our card new account acquisitions.

此外，卡和汽車的強勁勢頭被我們對卡新賬戶收購的投資所抵消。

Consumer and business banking revenue was up 4% on strong deposit growth, and mortgage revenue was relatively flat as higher production margins and volumes were offset by lower servicing revenue on lower balances.

由於存款增長強勁，消費者和商業銀行業務收入增長了 4%，而抵押貸款收入相對持平，因為較高的生產利潤率和數量被較低餘額的較低服務收入所抵消。

Expense of $6.3 billion was flat year-on-year, as growth in the business was largely offset by continued expense efficiencies and lower legal.

63 億美元的費用與去年同期持平，因為業務的增長在很大程度上被持續的費用效率和較低的法律費用所抵消。

Finally the credit trends in our portfolio remained favorable.

最後，我們投資組合中的信貸趨勢仍然有利。

We saw net reserve releases in the quarter driven by mortgage on lower delinquencies, as well as improving HPI, with releases of $275 million in the PCI portfolio and $150 million in NCI.

我們看到本季度的淨準備金釋放受到較低拖欠率的抵押貸款以及 HPI 改善的推動，PCI 投資組合釋放了 2.75 億美元，NCI 釋放了 1.5 億美元。

On PCI specifically, actual losses have been lower than modeled output, and the release this quarter reflects that trend.

特別是在 PCI 方面，實際損失低於模擬輸出，本季度的發布反映了這一趨勢。

We will continue to observe actuals, and recalibrate our models as necessary, which may result in future releases.

我們將繼續觀察實際情況，並根據需要重新校准我們的模型，這可能會導致未來的發布。

These releases in mortgage were partially offset by a build in card of $150 million, and $50 million in business banking, both on the back of strong loan growth.

這些抵押貸款的釋放部分被 1.5 億美元的內置卡和 5000 萬美元的商業銀行業務所抵消，這都是由於貸款增長強勁。

Charge-offs increased year-over-year driven by card, as newer vintages continue to season in line with our expectations.

由於較新的年份繼續按照我們的預期進行季節，因此信用卡的沖銷同比增加。

And in auto, we are watching industry trends in sub prime and used car prices, but our heavily prime auto portfolio continues to perform well.

在汽車方面，我們正在關注次優車和二手車價格的行業趨勢，但我們的高端汽車投資組合繼續表現良好。

Now turning to page 6, and the corporate investment bank., CIB delivered a very strong result, with net income of $3.4 billion, and an ROE of 20%.

現在翻到第 6 頁，企業投資銀行。CIB 的業績非常強勁，淨收入為 34 億美元，ROE 為 20%。

Adjusting for legal, tax and credit costs, the ROE was a strong 17% for the quarter.

調整法律、稅收和信貸成本後，本季度的 ROE 強勁，達到 17%。

Revenue of $8.5 billion, up 20% year-on-year, was our best reported performance ever for a fourth quarter.

收入為 85 億美元，同比增長 20%，是我們有史以來第四季度報告的最佳業績。

As we look at the full year a moment on lead tables, in banking we ranked number one in global IB fees, and number one in North America and EMEA, and we were the only bank among the top 5 to grow share.

當我們在領先表上查看全年的時刻時，在銀行業，我們在全球 IB 費用中排名第一，在北美和歐洲、中東和非洲地區排名第一，我們是前 5 名中唯一增長份額的銀行。

In M&A, we continued to rank number two globally, and did more deals than anyone else last year.

在併購方面，我們繼續在全球排名第二，去年完成的交易比其他任何人都多。

In ECM, we maintained our number one ranking, improved our share, and were number one in volume across all products, and in both North America and Europe.

在 ECM 中，我們保持了第一的排名，提高了我們的份額，並且在所有產品以及北美和歐洲的銷量上均排名第一。

And in DCM, we ranked number one across high yield, high grade and loans.

在 DCM，我們在高收益、高等級和貸款方面排名第一。

Back to the quarter, IB revenue was $1.5 billion, up 1% year-on-year.

回到本季度，IB 收入為 15 億美元，同比增長 1%。

Advisory fees were down 17% from a strong prior year quarter, and impacted by lower announced volumes in the first half of last year.

諮詢費較去年同期強勁下降了 17%，並受到去年上半年公佈的交易量下降的影響。

Equity underwriting fees were down 5%, a little better than the market with strong performance in North America, and debt underwriting fees were up 32% relative to a weak prior year quarter on strong flow issuance, as well as acquisition financing.

股票承銷費下降了 5%，略好於表現強勁的北美市場，而債務承銷費相對於去年同期疲軟的季度增長了 32%，原因是強勁的流量發行以及收購融資。

Treasury services revenue of $950 million was up 5%, driven by higher rates and operating balance growth, as well as higher fees on increased payment volumes.

財政服務收入為 9.5 億美元，增長 5%，這主要得益於利率和運營餘額增長以及支付量增加導致的費用增加。

Moving on to markets, another strong quarter with the highest revenue on record for a fourth quarter in total, and for each of 16 common equities.

進入市場，這是另一個強勁的季度，第四季度的總收入以及 16 只普通股中的每一種都創下了有史以來最高的收入。

And like last quarter, the strength was broad-based.

和上個季度一樣，這種力量是廣泛的。

Revenue of $4.5 billion was up 24% year-on-year, in part flattered by a weaker fourth quarter last year, but on the whole driven by momentum carried forward from the third quarter, and the ability to capture flow from higher volatility and client activity.

收入 45 億美元，同比增長 24%，部分受去年第四季度疲軟的影響，但總體而言，受第三季度勢頭的推動，以及從更高的波動性和客戶中獲取流量的能力活動。

The back drop was that of a healthier global economic outlook, increased optimism, and global political developments.

背後的原因是全球經濟前景更加健康、樂觀情緒增強以及全球政治發展。

More specifically, fixed income revenue was up 31%, as we saw increased client risk appetite for spread product, as well as client's actively hedging commodities in a better energy market.

更具體地說，固定收益收入增長了 31%，因為我們看到客戶對價差產品的風險偏好增加，以及客戶在更好的能源市場中積極對沖商品。

And equities revenue was up 8% reflecting strong performance in derivatives.

股票收入增長 8%，反映出衍生品的強勁表現。

Credit costs were a benefit of nearly $200 million, primarily driven by oil and gas and metals and mining.

信貸成本帶來了近 2 億美元的收益，主要由石油和天然氣以及金屬和採礦業推動。

And finally, expense of $4.2 billion was down 6% year-on-year, primarily on lower compensation resulting in a comp to revenue ratio of 27% for the full year.

最後，費用為 42 億美元，同比下降 6%，主要是由於薪酬降低導致全年的薪酬與收入比率為 27%。

Moving on to page 7, and commercial banking, another outstanding quarter in commercial banking, with net income of $687 million, record revenue of $2 billion, and an ROE of 16%.

繼續第 7 頁，商業銀行業務是商業銀行業務的另一個傑出季度，淨收入為 6.87 億美元，創紀錄的收入為 20 億美元，ROE 為 16%。

Revenue was up 12% and expense down 1%, with a overhead ratio of 38%.

收入增長 12%，費用下降 1%，間接費用率為 38%。

Loan growth remains robust, credit performance remains strong, and client sentiment has improved.

貸款增長依然強勁，信貸表現依然強勁，客戶情緒有所改善。

Revenue growth was driven by higher deposit NII and loan growth, with loan spreads holding steady, as well as higher IB revenue with good underlying deal flow.

收入增長是由較高的存款 NII 和貸款增長推動的，貸款利差保持穩定，以及較高的 IB 收入和良好的基礎交易流。

For the full year, IB revenue was a record $2.3 billion, up 5% year-on-year as we gained share.

全年，IB 收入達到創紀錄的 23 億美元，同比增長 5%，因為我們獲得了份額。

Expense was down slightly, with the impact of impairment in the aircraft leasing business last year offset by investments we've made in bankers and technologies this year.

費用略有下降，去年飛機租賃業務減值的影響被我們今年對銀行家和技術的投資所抵消。

We ended the year with record loan balances of $189 billion, up 14% year-on-year, with growth in both C&I and CRE.

到年底，我們的貸款餘額達到創紀錄的 1890 億美元，同比增長 14%，C&I 和 CRE 均實現增長。

C&I loans were up 9%, as the investments we've made in specialized industry coverage, as well as adding over 130 net new bankers this year contributed to growth.

C&I 貸款增長了 9%，因為我們在專業行業覆蓋範圍內的投資，以及今年新增 130 多名新銀行家為增長做出了貢獻。

And CRE loans were up 19%.

CRE貸款增長了19%。

Finally credit performance remains strong, with a net charge-off rate of 11 basis points, driven by a couple of oil and gas mains largely reserved for.

最後，信貸表現依然強勁，淨沖銷率為 11 個基點，主要由幾條主要保留的石油和天然氣乾線推動。

And we saw a modest increase in loan loss reserves driven by select client downgrades.

我們看到，由於部分客戶降級，貸款損失準備金略有增加。

In CRE, we had no net charge-offs, and we reiterate three quarters of this portfolio is multi-family lending, to own as a stabilized Class B and C properties in supply-constrained markets.

在 CRE，我們沒有淨沖銷，我們重申該投資組合的四分之三是多戶貸款，在供應受限的市場中擁有穩定的 B 級和 C 級物業。

And the remainder is real estate developers that we know well, and we continue to be disciplined, and limit exposures to riskier segments of the market.

其餘的是我們熟悉的房地產開發商，我們將繼續遵守紀律，並限制對市場風險較高的部分的敞口。

Leaving the commercial bank, and moving on to asset management on page 8. Asset management reported net income of $586 million, with a 30% pre-tax margin and an ROE of 25%.

離開商業銀行，繼續第 8 頁的資產管理。資產管理報告的淨收入為 5.86 億美元，稅前利潤率為 30%，ROE 為 25%。

Revenue of $3.1 billion was up 1% year-on-year, driven primarily by strong banking results on higher deposit NII and continued loan growth, predominantly offset by prior period asset disposals.

收入 31 億美元，同比增長 1%，主要是由於較高的存款 NII 和持續的貸款增長帶來的強勁銀行業績，主要被前期資產處置所抵消。

Expense of $2.2 billion was down 1% year-on-year.

費用為 22 億美元，同比下降 1%。

For the full year, we had long-term net inflows of $23 billion in a challenging environment, driven predominantly by fixed income, multi asset and alternatives.

全年，我們在充滿挑戰的環境中獲得了 230 億美元的長期淨流入，主要由固定收益、多元資產和另類資產驅動。

In addition, we gathered $24 billion of liquidity flows this year.

此外，我們今年收集了 240 億美元的流動資金。

However, for the quarter, we saw net long-term outflows of $21 billion, obviously disappointing.

然而，在本季度，我們看到 210 億美元的長期淨流出，顯然令人失望。

But on a more positive note, we saw liquidity inflows of $35 billion this quarter, gaining share and strengthening our leadership position during this period of money market reform.

但更積極的一面是，我們看到本季度流動性流入 350 億美元，在貨幣市場改革期間獲得份額並鞏固了我們的領導地位。

AUM grew 3% year-on-year, and overall client assets 4% to $1.8 trillion and $2.5 trillion, respectively, driven by net inflows, as well as higher market levels.

在淨流入和更高市場水平的推動下，資產管理規模同比增長 3%，整體客戶資產分別增長 4% 至 1.8 萬億美元和 2.5 萬億美元。

And our long-term investment performance remained solid, with 80% of mutual fund AUM ranked in the first or second quartile over five years.

我們的長期投資業績保持穩健，5 年內 80% 的共同基金資產管理規模位於第一或第二四分位。

And we had record loan balances up 4%, and record deposit balances up 9%.

我們的貸款餘額創紀錄地增長了 4%，存款餘額創紀錄地增長了 9%。

Moving to page 9, and corporate, Treasury and CIO was flat quarter-on-quarter, with a net loss of around $200 million, and other corporate was a loss of $144 million primarily driven by legal expense.

轉到第 9 頁，公司、財務和 CIO 環比持平，淨虧損約 2 億美元，其他公司虧損 1.44 億美元，主要由法律費用驅動。

Turning to page 10, and the outlook, looking forward to the first quarter, expect net interest income for the Firm to be up modestly, reflecting the impact of the December rate hike, as well as continued loan growth.

轉到第 10 頁，展望第一季度，預計公司的淨利息收入將小幅上升，反映出 12 月加息的影響以及貸款的持續增長。

For asset management, expect revenue will be slightly less than $3 billion, reflecting seasonality of performance fees.

對於資產管理，預計收入將略低於 30 億美元，反映了業績費用的季節性。

And recall that last year's first quarter included a $150 million gain on the sale of an asset.

回想一下，去年第一季度的資產出售收益為 1.5 億美元。

On expense, expect CCB to be up around $150 million sequentially on higher auto lease depreciation, as well as seasonally higher compensation and marketing, and expect expense in the commercial bank to be up quarter-on-quarter to around $775 million as we continue to invest.

在費用方面，由於汽車租賃折舊增加以及季節性薪酬和營銷費用增加，預計建行將環比增加約 1.5 億美元，並預計商業銀行的費用將環比增加至約 7.75 億美元，因為我們將繼續投資。

Obviously, we're looking forward to Investor Day, and we'll give you more detailed 2017 guidance then.

顯然，我們期待著投資者日，屆時我們將為您提供更詳細的 2017 年指導。

So to wrap up, a record fourth quarter and a record year, both net income and EPS demonstrating the strength of the platform.

因此，總而言之，創紀錄的第四季度和創紀錄的一年，淨收入和每股收益都證明了該平台的實力。

We enjoyed revenue growth, we met our expense and capital commitments, increased payouts to shareholders, and generated good returns on higher capital.

我們享受了收入增長，我們履行了我們的費用和資本承諾，增加了對股東的支付，並通過更高的資本產生了良好的回報。

As we move into the New Year, we remain well-positioned, and are excited about the opportunities to grow the Business by serving our clients and communities.

隨著我們進入新的一年，我們仍然處於有利地位，並對通過為我們的客戶和社區服務來發展業務的機會感到興奮。

With that, operator, we'll take Q&A.

有了這個，接線員，我們將進行問答。

Operator?

操作員？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Your first question comes from the line of Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

您的第一個問題來自 Ken Usdin 與 Jefferies 的對話。

Hi, thanks.

你好謝謝。

Good morning.

早上好。

Marianne, I was just wondering -- I know you'll give us more at Investor Day, but just in terms of that first quarter starting point for NII, and just how it translates between growth in the balance sheet?

瑪麗安，我只是想知道——我知道你會在投資者日給我們更多信息，但就 NII 的第一季度起點而言，以及它如何在資產負債表的增長之間轉化？

And then, you mentioned the benefit from the roll over in rates, can you help us just try to think about -- just you parse those views out, and think about volume versus rate?

然後，你提到了利率滾動帶來的好處，你能幫助我們試著想想——只要你把這些觀點分析出來，想想數量與利率的關係嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So hey, Ken, you guys have a busy day today.

所以嘿，肯，你們今天很忙。

So I would say that, the first quarter is always a quarter in which we have a bunch of different factors.

所以我想說，第一季度總是一個我們有很多不同因素的季度。

And most notably, you also have day count issues in the first quarter.

最值得注意的是，第一季度還有天數問題。

So I can go through that, but I would say most of the benefit which we expect to be up modestly will be driven by the rate increase, with growth being offset by day count.

所以我可以經歷這一點，但我會說，我們預計適度增長的大部分收益將由利率增長推動，增長被天數抵消。

That's sort of fundamentally how to think about it.

從根本上來說，這就是如何思考它。

It's probably more instructive to think about the full year.

考慮全年可能更有啟發性。

And so, if you recall back to the third quarter, just to kind of reorient everyone, at that point when we didn't have the December hike, we said rates flat.

因此，如果你回想一下第三季度，只是為了重新調整每個人的方向，那時我們沒有 12 月加息，我們說利率持平。

So on growth alone, we would expect NII for the full year to be up about $1.5 billion.

因此，僅就增長而言，我們預計全年 NII 將增加約 15 億美元。

Obviously, we have had the 25 basis point hike in December.

顯然，我們在 12 月加息了 25 個基點。

And based upon that alone, so now the new rate flat, that $1.5 billion would be about $3 billion, a little over $3 billon.

僅基於這一點，所以現在新的利率持平，這 15 億美元將約為 30 億美元，略高於 30 億美元。

So for the full year, we're expecting on the December hike alone, that it would be about half volume, and about half rate.

因此，就全年而言，我們預計僅在 12 月的加息中，交易量將約為一半，利率約為一半。

Understood, great.

明白了，太好了。

And if I could ask a follow-up?

如果我可以要求跟進？

Just on the volume side, you had another great year of double-digit loan growth.

就數量而言，您又經歷了兩位數的貸款增長。

And obviously, we're at this intersection between kind of the what was, and then the what will be.

顯然，我們正處於過去和未來的交匯點。

Any change to that expectation you could just grow the loan [bit] book, a core loan book that is, as strongly as you have in the past few years?

對這種期望有什麼改變，你可以增加貸款 [bit] 賬簿，這是一本核心貸款賬簿，就像你過去幾年一樣強大？

Yes.

是的。

So I think the way to think about it, and again, I think we talked a little bit about it last quarter, and you maybe see it in the fourth quarter.

所以我想到了思考的方式，我想我們上個季度談了一點，你可能會在第四季度看到它。

So we've been growing our loans in the -- we said it was going to be a 10% to15%.

所以我們一直在增加我們的貸款——我們說這將是 10% 到 15%。

We revised that, to be at the top end of that range.

我們對此進行了修改，使其處於該範圍的頂端。

So we've been growing at around 15% core loan growth, the fourth quarter was 12%.

因此，我們的核心貸款增長率一直在 15% 左右，第四季度為 12%。

So I wouldn't call it a deceleration per se, but it is a little bit lower.

所以我不會把它稱為減速本身，但它有點低。

So I think going into 2017, our expectation is that we would continue to grow loans strongly, but possibly at the lower end of that range, rather than the higher.

因此，我認為進入 2017 年，我們的預期是貸款將繼續強勁增長，但可能處於該範圍的低端，而不是更高的水平。

And of course, to a degree, it will depend upon our mortgage portfolio, but we intend to continue to add to that too.

當然，在某種程度上，這將取決於我們的抵押貸款組合，但我們也打算繼續增加。

So sitting here today, I'd say more high single 10% plus or minus, and we'll give you more updates at Investor Day.

所以今天坐在這裡，我會說更高的 10% 正負，我們將在投資者日為您提供更多更新。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Your next question comes from Betsy Graseck with Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。

Hi, good morning.

早上好。

Good morning.

早上好。

I just wanted to dig in a little bit on the forward look.

我只是想深入探討一下前瞻性。

NII up a bit, but also expense is up a bit.

NII漲了一點，但是費用也漲了一點。

And I just wanted to understand is that because you've got the opportunity to reinvest in things that you haven't been able to?

我只是想了解是因為您有機會再投資於您無法做的事情嗎？

And if you could just speak to what kind of time frame the reinvestment will yield returns, because the question I've gotten from people is, why aren't you dropping the NII benefit to the bottom line here?

如果你能談談再投資在什麼樣的時間範圍內會產生回報，因為我從人們那裡得到的問題是，你為什麼不把 NII 的好處降到底線呢？

So just taking the two things separately, Betsy, I would say the NII, up 5% is dropping to the bottom line.

所以把這兩件事分開來看，Betsy，我會說 NII，上漲 5% 正在下降到底線。

But as we, you saw all of our underlying drivers, across all of the businesses and volumes, transactions, everything is growing very strongly.

但正如我們一樣，你看到了我們所有的潛在驅動因素，在所有業務和交易量、交易中，一切都在非常強勁地增長。

And although we still have some work to do to finish the large expense programs, we're near the end of that.

儘管我們仍有一些工作要做以完成大型支出計劃，但我們已接近尾聲。

So just generally speaking, we're continuing to invest in the businesses, and we'll see the improvement in our expenses flatten out, and start to grow with volumes.

所以一般來說，我們將繼續投資於這些業務，我們將看到我們支出的改善趨於平穩，並開始隨著數量的增長而增長。

And that would also support growth in non-interest revenue, outside obviously of the card phenomenon we talked to you about.

這也將支持非利息收入的增長，顯然不包括我們與您討論的卡片現象。

And then related follow-up has to do with, how you're thinking about the excess cash you've got, and the balance sheet duration?

然後相關的後續行動與你如何看待你擁有的多餘現金以及資產負債表的持續時間有關？

And if there's anything in this new interest rate environment that you would be seeking to do -- (multiple speakers) to optimize --

如果在這個新的利率環境中有什麼你想要做的——（多位發言人）來優化——

Sorry, carry on.

對不起，繼續。

Oh, to optimize your position.

哦，優化你的位置。

Right.

對。

So when we think about our investment securities portfolio, we think about it as responding to structural changes in our balance sheet, which predominantly is driven by loans and deposits.

因此，當我們考慮我們的投資證券組合時，我們認為它是對我們資產負債表結構變化的反應，這主要是由貸款和存款驅動的。

And it's always important I think, to remember, because we focus a lot on structural interest rate risk, but it also is liquidity and liquidity risk.

我認為記住這一點總是很重要的，因為我們非常關注結構性利率風險，但它也是流動性和流動性風險。

In this quarter, there was a combination of things.

在本季度，有多種情況。

You saw that we grew deposits more strongly than loans this quarter, so we had some excess cash, as well as the fact that rates rose.

你看到本季度我們的存款增長比貸款增長更強勁，所以我們有一些多餘的現金，以及利率上升的事實。

So two things happened in our investment securities portfolio, mortgages extended, and we did add to duration.

因此，在我們的投資證券組合中發生了兩件事，抵押貸款延期，我們確實增加了久期。

But we have a very disciplined risk management framework that's based -- that's been consistent through time, based on our expectations of normal rates in the future, and we just executed on that strategy.

但是我們有一個非常嚴格的風險管理框架，它基於我們對未來正常利率的預期，隨著時間的推移是一致的，我們只是按照這個策略執行。

Okay.

好的。

So no change to the duration?

所以持續時間沒有變化？

Yes, we added to duration, in accordance with our framework.

是的，我們根據我們的框架增加了持續時間。

Okay.

好的。

Your next question comes from the line of John McDonald with Sanford & Bernstein.

您的下一個問題來自 John McDonald 與 Sanford & Bernstein 的對話。

Hi, good morning.

早上好。

Marianne, I was wondering if you could comment a little bit about some more color in card trends?

Marianne，我想知道你是否可以對卡片趨勢中的更多顏色發表一些評論？

You have exciting new products out there.

您有令人興奮的新產品。

How are the economics of the Sapphire Reserve card been coming in relative to your expectations, and what factors drove the decision to cut the original promotion award back, and should that affect your account acquisition costs?

Sapphire Reserve 卡的經濟效益與您的預期相比如何，哪些因素促使您決定削減原始促銷獎勵，這是否會影響您的帳戶獲取成本？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Great.

偉大的。

So obviously, the Sapphire Reserve card is still quite young, or still quite new.

很明顯，藍寶石儲備卡還很年輕，或者說還很新。

But relative to our modeled expectations even at the intro promo premium, things are coming in, in line or better than our expectations.

但相對於我們的模型預期，即使是在介紹促銷溢價的情況下，事情正在發生，符合或優於我們的預期。

Now obviously, we need to continue to [back test] that [three] times.

現在顯然，我們需要繼續[回測]那[三]次。

But we're very encouraged by, not only the excitement in our customer base, but also the way that the trends are performing in terms of spend and engagement.

但我們感到非常鼓舞的是，不僅是我們客戶群的興奮，還有趨勢在支出和參與方面的表現方式。

But when we introduce a new product, we intentionally introduce a very exciting premium promo, and it's intended to generate excitement.

但是，當我們推出新產品時，我們會故意推出非常令人興奮的高級促銷活動，目的是引起興奮。

And I think you would agree it did.

我想你會同意的。

So we're delighted with the response that we've had.

因此，我們對收到的回應感到高興。

And we've actually kept it up for longer than we initially expected, but it's normal for us to come down from those intro rates, as the product becomes more mature, and that's what we are doing.

而且我們實際上保持它的時間比我們最初預期的要長，但是隨著產品變得更加成熟，我們從這些介紹率下降是正常的，這就是我們正在做的事情。

But to be very clear about our expectations of the performance of the card, even at 100,000 points, we still expected the card to be a strong return and very accretive.

但是要非常清楚我們對這張卡的表現的期望，即使在 100,000 點，我們仍然預計這張卡會是一個強勁的回報並且非常具有增值性。

So obviously, at a lower premium, it would be more so.

所以很明顯，在較低的溢價下，情況會更好。

But one last thing I would say, is everybody gets very interested the up front points.

但我要說的最後一件事是，每個人都會對前面的觀點非常感興趣。

It's our opinion that the real value to consumers of that card happens over time with their spend behavior, and to take the points down from 100,000 to 50,000 has less than a 10% reduction in the overall value through the lifetime of an engaged customer on average.

我們認為，該卡對消費者的真正價值隨著他們的消費行為隨著時間的推移而發生，並且將積分從 100,000 降低到 50,000，平均而言，在參與客戶的整個生命週期中，總價值降低了不到 10% .

Okay.

好的。

And just as a follow-up on that, in terms of the card, credit quality, it's been very good.

作為後續行動，就信用卡、信用質量而言，它一直非常好。

Would you still expect to see though some seasoning as the book matures?

隨著書的成熟，你還會期望看到一些調味料嗎？

What kind of outlook would you have on the card charge-offs?

您對信用卡沖銷有何看法？

So the charge-offs came in for the year at 2.63%, which is in line with the guidance that we gave, I think in November that Kevin Watters gave.

因此，今年的沖銷率為 2.63%，這與我們給出的指導一致，我認為凱文·沃特斯在 11 月份給出了指導。

He's given guidance for 2017, as we continue to see the newer vintages seasoned, are 2.75% plus or minus.

他給出了 2017 年的指導，因為我們繼續看到較新的陳年年份，正負 2.75%。

And that's still our expectation, so the newer vintages are performing in line with our expectations.

這仍然是我們的預期，因此較新年份的表現符合我們的預期。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Your next question comes from the line of Erika Najarian from Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Erika Najarian。

Hi, good morning.

早上好。

I know that you've said previously that regulatory reform or regulatory relief will unlikely have any fundamental change in terms of how you're thinking about budgeting.

我知道您之前曾說過，監管改革或監管放鬆不太可能對您對預算的思考方式產生任何根本性的改變。

But I'm wondering if you could help us understand, sort of over the past few years, how much has regulatory costs grown, and has that peaked anyway?

但我想知道您是否可以幫助我們了解，在過去幾年中，監管成本增加了多少，並且是否已經達到頂峰？

And can you give us a sense of how that could trend over the next few years, either the natural trend of it, or what the impact would be of regulatory reform?

您能否讓我們了解未來幾年的趨勢，無論是自然趨勢，還是監管改革的影響？

Yes.

是的。

So I'll give you a couple of things, and hopefully that will help.

所以我會給你一些東西，希望這會有所幫助。

So I think a year or so ago, we talked about the fact that -- I'm going to now talk about cost of controls more broadly than just regulatory, that the cost of controls had increased for the Company by about $3 billion over several years.

所以我認為大約一年前，我們談到了這樣一個事實——我現在要更廣泛地討論控製成本，而不僅僅是監管，公司的控製成本在過去幾年中增加了大約 30 億美元。年。

But that we expected they would peak and start bending down, and that is indeed what we have been seeing.

但是我們預計它們會達到頂峰並開始向下彎曲，而這確實是我們所看到的。

Now I'm not saying that bend down is a sharp bend, as we continue to be held to very sort of hard compliance burdens.

現在我並不是說彎腰是一個急轉彎，因為我們繼續承受著非常硬的合規負擔。

But nevertheless, we are seeing some efficiencies as we mature our processes and automate them.

但是，隨著流程的成熟和自動化，我們看到了一些效率。

Offsetting against that, and one of the reasons why it may be less obvious, is that we've continued to increase our spend in cyber security, as we want to protect the bank and the customer's data.

抵消這一點，以及它可能不太明顯的原因之一是，我們繼續增加在網絡安全方面的支出，因為我們希望保護銀行和客戶的數據。

So naturally, that is happening.

很自然，這正在發生。

We are not going to continue at this point, carving out the costs of regulatory or control because that is our operating model, it's our new normal.

在這一點上，我們不會繼續削減監管或控製成本，因為這是我們的運營模式，是我們的新常態。

And until we understand whether or not the forward-looking landscape is changed, we won't be able to give you any kind of idea about how and when that will impact our expenses.

在我們了解前瞻性格局是否發生變化之前，我們無法為您提供任何關於這將如何以及何時影響我們的開支的想法。

But we will continue to be more and more efficient.

但我們將繼續變得越來越高效。

And certainly, if we are able to take a step back, and look at the rules and regulations, and the way that they are being implemented, and make rational changes to it, if that is something that is -- allows us to become more efficient, then we will certainly do that, and keep you informed.

當然，如果我們能夠退後一步，看看規則和條例，以及它們的實施方式，並對其進行合理的改變，如果這是這樣的話——讓我們變得更加高效，那麼我們一定會這樣做，並隨時通知您。

Great.

偉大的。

And just as a follow-up to John's question on card trends, when you look at the card revenue rate declining about 200 basis points or so year-over-year, is your response to this question essentially implying that we've potentially hit peak promotion in 2016, and perhaps the revenue rate will have some stability to it in 2017?

正如約翰關於卡片趨勢的問題的後續，當你看到卡片收入同比下降約 200 個基點左右時，你對這個問題的回答基本上暗示我們可能已經達到頂峰2016年的推廣，2017年的營收率或許會有一些穩定？

So I think in the conference in November, Kevin Watters said that as we look at the new products, and we look at them growing, coming out in 2016 and into 2017, we would expect the card revenue rate for the year next year to be about 10.5%, after which as the cards and the accounts season and drive revenue growth, we should see that continue to trend back up to a level in the past.

所以我認為在 11 月的會議上，Kevin Watters 說，隨著我們看到新產品，我們看到它們在不斷增長，在 2016 年和 2017 年推出，我們預計明年的卡收入率將是大約 10.5%，之後隨著卡和賬戶的旺季和推動收入增長，我們應該看到繼續趨勢回到過去的水平。

Got it.

知道了。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Mayo with CLSA.

您的下一個問題來自 CLSA 的 Mike Mayo。

Hi.

你好。

Is Jamie on the call?

傑米在電話中嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So Jamie, your comment said that the US economy may be gaining momentum.

所以傑米，你的評論說美國經濟可能正在獲得動力。

Yes.

是的。

If you can give some of the basis for that comment, is it more risk borne by investors, or more CapEx by companies, or is this more hope?

如果您可以為該評論提供一些依據，是投資者承擔更多風險，還是公司承擔更多資本支出，還是更有希望？

I mean, I think that it's actual detail of retail spend, auto sales, house prices, household formation, confidence numbers.

我的意思是，我認為這是零售支出、汽車銷售、房價、家庭形成、信心數據的實際細節。

So I'm not basing it on the market, I'm just basing it -- if you look at a broad range of things, it looks like growth may have gotten a little bit better in the fourth quarter.

所以我不是基於市場，我只是基於它——如果你看的範圍很廣，看起來第四季度的增長可能會好一些。

Plus if you take a walk around the world, Japan is doing a little better, Europe is doing better.

另外，如果你環遊世界，日本做得更好，歐洲做得更好。

In fact, one of the IMF [or someone else] came out yesterday, and [said] the global growth is going to tick up next year.

事實上，國際貨幣基金組織[或其他人]的一個人昨天出來了，[說]明年全球經濟增長將會加快。

So it's just those factors.

所以只有這些因素。

Is that enough for you to say you're going to invest a little bit more, or hire more people, or expand a little bit more?

這是否足以讓你說你要多投資一點，或者僱傭更多的人，或者擴大一點？

And along those lines, how do you see market share gains potentially from now?

沿著這些思路，您如何看待從現在開始的潛在市場份額增長？

We're not going to change our plans very much, because we don't really react that much to the weather, because we grow to add bankers and stuff.

我們不會太大地改變我們的計劃，因為我們對天氣的反應並不那麼大，因為我們會增加銀行家和其他東西。

You know you have to do it through a cycle.

你知道你必須通過一個週期來做到這一點。

I do think of it as some regulatory relief.

我確實認為這是一些監管救濟。

You will see banks be more aggressive and growing, opening branches in new cities, adding to loan portfolios, seeking out clients they don't have.

你會看到銀行更加積極和成長，在新城市開設分行，增加貸款組合，尋找他們沒有的客戶。

So I'm hoping to see a little bit of that too, but that will wait for regulatory relief.

所以我也希望看到一點點，但這將等待監管的緩解。

Why are you saying this might be a little bit more than just weather, that this might be more sustainable, when you say the economy might be turning?

當你說經濟可能正在轉變時，你為什麼說這可能不僅僅是天氣，這可能更可持續？

Well, I'm saying we don't react to the small change in the economy to how we grow and expand our business.

好吧，我是說我們不會對經濟的微小變化對我們如何發展和擴展我們的業務做出反應。

But I just that it looks to us, if you look across the broad spectrum, capital expenditures, business confidence, consumer confidence, household building, household formation, wage income, wages going up, unemployment going down, auto sales going up, retail sales going up, it looks like it's getting stronger, not weaker.

但我只是在我們看來，如果你放眼廣泛，資本支出、商業信心、消費者信心、家庭建設、家庭形成、工資收入、工資上漲、失業率下降、汽車銷售上升、零售額往上走，看起來是在變強，而不是變弱。

That's what it looks like to me.

這就是我的樣子。

That's just my own personal belief.

這只是我個人的信仰。

And maybe just if we give you a bit of insight into the philosophy about how we do our investment and expense budgeting.

也許只是讓您對我們如何進行投資和費用預算的理念有所了解。

When we talk to our businesses, regardless to Jamie's point about necessarily whether the external factors are moving, the question is, what do we want to do in terms of products and services and technology and bankers and offices that we can execute on well and responsibly?

當我們與我們的企業交談時，無論 Jamie 是否認為外部因素必然在發生變化，問題是，我們想在產品、服務、技術、銀行家和辦公室方面做什麼，我們可以很好地和負責任地執行?

And that is typically what defines us, not our appetite to invest the dollars.

這通常是我們的定義，而不是我們投資美元的胃口。

So I think we've told you pretty consistently that, and you've seen it.

所以我認為我們已經非常一致地告訴過你，你已經看到了。

We added 130 net new bankers, we opened eight offices in the commercial bank.

我們增加了 130 名新銀行家，我們在商業銀行開設了 8 個辦事處。

We're investing in technology very, very broadly, payments, digital across the Company.

我們正在非常非常廣泛地投資於整個公司的支付和數字技術。

So I would say that, we don't feel like we've been held back in terms of our appetite to invest, because of concern around the economy.

所以我想說的是，由於對經濟的擔憂，我們並不覺得我們的投資意願受到了阻礙。

And in the same way, a more confident outlook in the economy won't step change that.

同樣，更自信的經濟前景也不會改變這一點。

But we will continue to look for great investments everywhere we can and make them.

但我們將繼續在我們所能做的任何地方尋找偉大的投資並進行投資。

All right.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Your next question comes from the line of Jim Mitchell from Buckingham Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Buckingham Research 的 Jim Mitchell。

Hey, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Maybe we could talk a little bit about the investment bank?

也許我們可以談談投資銀行？

Obviously, your peers and a lot of investors have been growing in their optimism for this year, in terms of animal spirits and everything else, and just want to get a sense of how you're thinking about it?

顯然，您的同行和許多投資者對今年的樂觀情緒一直在增長，就動物精神和其他一切而言，只是想了解您的想法嗎？

Do you share that optimism, and any commentary on how we can think about both banking and trading into the New Year, with all of the moving parts that we have around policy, et cetera?

您是否同意這種樂觀態度，以及關於我們如何看待銀行和交易進入新年的任何評論，以及我們在政策等方面擁有的所有動態部分？

Thanks.

謝謝。

So I would say, just if we separate the two, and just talk for one second about banking.

所以我想說，只要我們把兩者分開，就銀行業談一談。

The fundamentals for a solid M&A year are there, and obviously there will be puts and takes depending on what happens in the policy and reforms space.

堅實的併購年的基本面已經存在，顯然會有放量和放量，具體取決於政策和改革領域發生的情況。

But we're optimistic about a solid M&A market, but with the continuing trend of fewer mega deals, but nevertheless good flow.

但我們對穩健的併購市場持樂觀態度，但大型交易持續減少，但流動性良好。

At ECM, looks set to be quite active, and the IPO market continuing to recover, and debt capital markets have a solid pipeline in terms of the refinance arena, but having said that, interest rates may have an impact.

在 ECM，看起來將相當活躍，IPO 市場繼續復甦，債務資本市場在再融資領域擁有穩固的渠道，但話雖如此，利率可能會產生影響。

So I think pretty solid pipeline coming into the year, but lots of factors will ultimately affect the full year.

所以我認為今年會有相當穩固的管道，但很多因素最終會影響全年。

With respect to trading, Jamie said, that we don't look at the first couple of weeks, but so far, so good.

關於交易，傑米說，我們不看前幾週，但到目前為止，一切都很好。

And what I would tell you is, we said this before, we're a client flow oriented business.

我要告訴你的是，我們之前說過，我們是一家以客戶流為導向的企業。

And there will be a lot of micro and event-driven activity, and as long as it's not discontinuous, we should be able to intermediate transactions with our clients.

並且會有很多微觀和事件驅動的活動，只要它不是不連續的，我們應該能夠與我們的客戶進行中間交易。

And so far, generally there's been more risk appetite in the investor space, but that can change very quickly as we saw in previous quarters.

到目前為止，通常投資者領域的風險偏好有所增加，但正如我們在前幾個季度看到的那樣，這種情況可能會迅速改變。

So we will be there to support our clients.

因此，我們將在那裡支持我們的客戶。

And if they are active, everything should be good, but it can change quickly.

如果他們是活躍的，一切都應該是好的，但它可以很快改變。

Okay, that's helpful.

好的，這很有幫助。

And maybe as a follow-up.

也許作為後續行動。

On the expense side, the comp ratio in the investment bank, I think dropped around 240 basis points this year or last year.

在費用方面，投資銀行的薪酬比率，我認為今年或去年下降了約 240 個基點。

Do you think that's sustainable into 2017, assuming flat to up revenues, or was there anything unusual in there?

你認為這在 2017 年是可持續的嗎，假設收入持平，還是有什麼不尋常的地方？

So just reminding you about our sort of philosophy on comp to revenue, we pay -- or our comp to revenue is just a calculation, obviously we pay for shareholder value-added.

因此，只是提醒您我們關於收入補償的哲學，我們支付 - 或者我們的收入補償只是一個計算，顯然我們為股東增值支付。

So you need to take into consideration the fact that we've had overtime increased capital levels and liquidity levels, and that's reflected in a declining overall comp to revenue ratio.

因此，您需要考慮這樣一個事實，即我們的資本水平和流動性水平已經加班增加，這反映在整體收入與收入比率的下降中。

I would say that there are three factors to it being lower.

我會說它降低有三個因素。

The first is the strength in performance, and the pay outs aren't linear.

首先是業績的優勢，而支出不是線性的。

And as you have stronger performance, you would expect to see a lower ultimate outcome.

並且隨著您的表現更強，您會期望看到更低的最終結果。

But importantly, we were -- some tail winds in the numbers this year included a stronger dollar.

但重要的是，我們 - 今年的數字中的一些順風包括美元走強。

So as we pay -- remember comp to revenue isn't just on the front office compensation, it all supports our salaries, benefits and compensation.

因此，當我們支付時——請記住，收入補償不僅僅是前台薪酬，它都支持我們的薪水、福利和薪酬。

And we have a large number of people that we pay not in dollars.

而且我們有很多人不是用美元支付的。

So that was a bit of a tail wind.

所以這有點順風。

Some of that will carry on, but maybe not at the same level.

其中一些將繼續進行，但可能不在同一水平。

And we also just did our normal regular hygiene and productivity, in terms of the -- how we think about the workforce and pay.

而且，就我們對勞動力和薪酬的看法而言，我們也只是做了正常的日常衛生和生產力。

At the end of the day, we pay for performance, we pay, we think very competitively, to retain the best team on the street, and make sure that our shareholders are getting a fair share of any outperformance.

歸根結底，我們為業績付出代價，我們付出，我們認為非常具有競爭力，以留住街上最好的團隊，並確保我們的股東在任何出色表現中獲得公平的份額。

Okay.

好的。

All right.

好的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Your next question comes from the line of Paul Miller from FBR.

您的下一個問題來自 FBR 的 Paul Miller。

Yes, thank you very much.

是的謝謝你。

Hey, Jamie, one of the things that we're seeing, some of the new politicians, coming in talking about opening up to credit box, especially in the mortgage world that has been really shut down over the last years, mainly due to the rules coming from all of the things, Fannie, Freddie, [UB].

嘿，傑米，我們看到的一件事，一些新政客，進來談論開放信用箱，特別是在過去幾年真正關閉的抵押貸款世界，主要是由於來自所有事物的規則，房利美，房地美，[UB]。

What type of things do you need to see or do you think they can do to open up that credit box, where banks can take more risk and be protected?

你需要看什麼類型的東西，或者你認為他們可以做些什麼來打開那個信用箱，銀行可以在其中承擔更多風險並受到保護？

Simplifying the securitization rules, because we've done some securitizations.

簡化證券化規則，因為我們做了一些證券化。

We think they're excellent, but that would open up the market a little bit, clarifying the Safe Harbors on certain types of underwriting.

我們認為它們非常出色，但這會稍微打開市場，澄清某些類型承保的安全港。

For example, it's very hard and risky for a bank to make a loan to first time buyers, former bankruptcies, even though it could be very good people with brand new jobs, self-employed, it's hard to necessarily do all of the income verification, stuff like that.

例如，銀行向首次購房者、曾經破產的人提供貸款是非常困難和冒險的，即使它可能是擁有全新工作的非常優秀的人、個體經營者，也很難完成所有的收入驗證， 類似的東西。

Simplifying servicing, the services standards now have, I think nationwide, we have 3,000 different standards.

簡化服務，現在的服務標準，我想在全國范圍內，我們有 3000 種不同的標準。

It's very costly.

這是非常昂貴的。

It's very expensive.

這個很貴。

It's kind of risky.

這有點冒險。

If you make a mistake, the punishment is pretty high.

如果你犯了錯誤，懲罰是相當高的。

And all those things, that should be done for the good of the United States of America, not for the good of JPMorgan Chase.

而所有這些事情，應該是為了美利堅合眾國的利益，而不是為了摩根大通的利益。

And so, I do think it's too tight and there's one thing, that if you get around too quickly, it will help the housing market a little bit, it will help the housing formation, it will reduce the cost of mortgages, and make it available to more people.

所以，我確實認為它太緊了，有一件事，如果你過快，它會幫助房地產市場一點點，它會幫助住房形成，它會降低抵押貸款的成本，可供更多人使用。

Yes, okay, Jamie.

是的，好的，傑米。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝你。

Your next question comes from the line of Glenn Schorr with Evercore ISI.

您的下一個問題來自與 Evercore ISI 的 Glenn Schorr。

Hi, thanks.

你好謝謝。

Hi, Glenn.

嗨，格倫。

Hello, there.

你好呀。

So I guess the question for either one of you is, if we do get some lower taxes and/or a better rate environment, I'm curious on your confidence on how much of that can fall to the bottom line?

所以我想你們中的任何一個的問題是，如果我們確實獲得了一些更低的稅收和/或更好的利率環境，我很好奇你對其中有多少可以落入底線的信心？

Because there's a lot of optimism about what can happen if stocks have moved well, we're expecting that to move to the bottom line.

因為如果股票走勢良好，人們對可能發生的事情抱有很多樂觀態度，我們預計這將觸及底線。

There's the big concern that people have is, that it gets competed away by irrational behavior.

人們最擔心的是，它會被非理性行為所取代。

So curious to get your thoughts on that, just big picture in general, if things go well how much of that are you repaying?

很想知道你的想法，總的來說，如果事情進展順利，你會償還多少？

So starting off with sort of interest rates.

所以從某種利率開始。

And obviously, we've talked for an extended period of time about the fact we've positioned the Company to benefit when rates rise, we built the branches, we acquired the accounts, we've built the technology and the services.

顯然，我們已經討論了很長一段時間的事實，即我們已經使公司在利率上升時受益，我們建立了分支機構，我們獲得了客戶，我們已經建立了技術和服務。

So we've been growing our deposits very strongly, and we're going to enjoy the benefits of that.

因此，我們一直在非常強勁地增加存款，我們將享受其中的好處。

With respect to how much will go to the bottom line, we have been we think appropriately conservative, when we've given you guidance about ultimately how much incremental NII we would expect in a more normal rate environment.

關於底線會有多少，我們一直認為適當保守，當我們為您提供指導時，我們最終會在更正常的利率環境中預期增加多少 NII。

I mean, if you go back to Investor Days of past, you would see that we said when normalized, we would expect $10 billion-plus, and embedded in that are assumptions obviously around rate paid.

我的意思是，如果你回到過去的投資者日，你會看到我們說過，當正常化時，我們預計會超過 100 億美元，其中包含顯然是圍繞支付利率的假設。

We think that rate paid will be higher this time in this cycle, than in previous cycles for a bunch of reasons including as you said, competition for high quality liquidity balances.

我們認為，在這個週期中，這次支付的利率將高於之前的周期，原因有很多，包括如你所說的對高質量流動性餘額的競爭。

But also that we are coming off of zero rates and the improvement in technology.

而且我們正在擺脫零利率和技術的進步。

So we've been, we think appropriately conservative, but we'll find out in the fullness of time.

所以我們一直，我們認為適當的保守，但我們會在充足的時間發現。

So far two rate hikes, absolute rates at 50 basis points, it's too early.

到目前為止，兩次加息，絕對利率為 50 個基點，還為時過早。

And so far, you would expect there to be (inaudible) in there, and it's not linear, and everything is behaving quite rationally right now.

到目前為止，你會期望那裡有（聽不清），它不是線性的，現在一切都表現得很合理。

So we, in fact, if anything a little better than we had modeled.

所以我們，事實上，如果有什麼比我們建模的好一點的話。

So we'll keep watching it, and we think we've been thoughtful.

所以我們會繼續關注它，我們認為我們已經深思熟慮了。

We don't know the right answer, and we'll keep you updated as we see how things progress.

我們不知道正確的答案，當我們看到事情進展時，我們會及時通知您。

And just on the tax side, so other people understand, generally, yes, if you reduce the tax rates all things being equal to 20% of something, eventually that increased return will be competed away.

只是在稅收方面，所以其他人一般都明白，是的，如果你降低稅率，所有東西都等於某物的 20%，最終增加的回報將被競爭。

That is a good thing.

這是一件好事。

Okay, so it's not a good thing for JPMorgan Chase per se, but it's a good thing for the world, it's a good thing for growth.

好吧，這對摩根大通本身來說不是一件好事，但對世界來說是一件好事，對增長來說是一件好事。

And a lot of studies actually show the beneficiary of that is wages.

許多研究實際上表明，受益者是工資。

And so, it's important for people to understand that good tax policy is good for growth and the country in general.

因此，讓人們了解良好的稅收政策對增長和整個國家都有好處是很重要的。

It's not just good for companies, it will eventually be competed away.

這不僅對公司有利，最終也會被競爭淘汰。

So when should I take that lower tax rate out of my model?

那麼我什麼時候應該從我的模型中去掉那個較低的稅率呢？

I'm kidding (laughter).

我在開玩笑（笑聲）。

Listen, you aren't going to really know for probably nine months to a year exactly what it is, so I wouldn't worry too much about it.

聽著，你大概九個月到一年都不會真正知道它到底是什麼，所以我不會太擔心。

And I also, just remember the most efficient companies do benefit from things like this, more than others.

而且我還記得，最有效率的公司確實從這樣的事情中受益，而不是其他公司。

The real follow-up I had was, that the concept of interest deductibility, if that is the means that they use to pay for the tax hikes, it feels tough, like a bad thing.

我真正的跟進是，利息扣除的概念，如果這是他們用來支付加稅的手段，那感覺很難，就像一件壞事。

I'm just curious on how you think it impacts your franchise, from anything from debt underwriting to anything else?

我只是好奇你認為它如何影響你的特許經營權，從債務承銷到其他任何事情？

I think if you look at -- I mean, again, there's a lot of wood to be chopped and sausage to be made before tax reform gets done.

我想如果你看一下 - 我的意思是，在稅收改革完成之前，還有很多木頭需要砍伐和製作香腸。

And some of these things are brand new, they've never been talked about or done before, so you can read a lot of studies in the next six months.

其中一些東西是全新的，它們以前從未被談論過或做過，所以你可以在接下來的六個月裡閱讀很多研究。

Obviously, interest deductibility, for banks, from a net interest income, so it doesn't directly change how you look at it.

顯然，對於銀行而言，利息可從淨利息收入中扣除，因此它不會直接改變您對它的看法。

For everybody else, it affects complete industries differently.

對於其他人來說，它對整個行業的影響是不同的。

How you leverage differently, and utilities will be in a different position, and unleveraged companies.

您如何以不同的方式利用槓桿，公用事業公司將處於不同的位置，而未利用槓桿的公司。

And plus, I think people will be able to convert what would have been interest expense to some other kind of expense.

另外，我認為人們將能夠將本來是利息費用的費用轉換為其他類型的費用。

So let the work get done, before we spend too much time guessing about it.

因此，在我們花太多時間猜測它之前，讓工作完成。

I also think that while interest deductibility is one point, the repatriation of cash is another point.

我也認為，雖然利息扣除是一點，但現金匯回是另一點。

And there are puts and takes, and you have to think, you have to see the whole package, before you can see what the net impact is.

並且有投入和投入，你必須思考，你必須看到整個包裝，然後才能看到淨影響是什麼。

But ultimately if these things get done rationally and grow the economy, then it's good for our franchise just broadly.

但最終，如果這些事情能夠合理完成並促進經濟增長，那麼這對我們的特許經營權來說是廣泛的。

So don't focus on DCM, focus on the whole thing.

所以不要專注於 DCM，而要專注於整個事情。

And I think when you get the whole package, if it's done well which we hope will happen, then it will be good for the economy, good for our clients, and good for our whole franchise.

而且我認為，當您獲得整個一攬子計劃時，如果我們希望它做得好，那麼這將對經濟有利，對我們的客戶有利，對我們的整個特許經營權也有利。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you both.

謝謝你倆。

Your next question comes from the line of Matt O'Connor from Deutsche Bank.

您的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Matt O'Connor。

If I could circle back to the discussion on net interest income and the rate leverage.

如果我可以回到關於淨利息收入和利率槓桿的討論。

I think the outlook for net interest income to grow over $3 billion versus $1.5 billion before the rate increase.

我認為淨利息收入的前景將超過 30 億美元，而加息前為 15 億美元。

That's obviously a nice lift for just a 25 basis point bump on the short end.

對於短線僅上漲 25 個基點而言，這顯然是一個不錯的提振。

So I guess, one, does that include the benefit of longer term rates since they've moved up as well since 9/30, which I assume it does, but just to confirm that?

所以我想，第一，這是否包括長期利率的好處，因為它們自 9/30 以來也上漲了，我認為它確實如此，但只是為了確認這一點？

And secondly, what's the leverage to rising rates from here, as we think about movements in both the short and long end?

其次，當我們考慮短期和長期的走勢時，從這裡開始利率上升的槓桿是什麼？

Yes, okay.

是的，好的。

So yes, Matt, it does include the benefit of higher long end rates.

所以是的，馬特，它確實包括更高的長期利率的好處。

And if you get the Q, and get our disclosure on net income risk, and do some math, you'll get pretty close to numbers that looks similar to that $1.5 billion or more.

如果你得到 Q，得到我們關於淨收入風險的披露，並做一些數學運算，你會得到非常接近 15 億美元或更多的數字。

And then, with respect to rate sensitivity from here, clearly it's not linear.

然後，關於這裡的速率敏感度，顯然它不是線性的。

So you can see, if we just look at the third quarter, the first 100 basis points -- this is an illustration of $2.8 billion, 200 basis points is $4.5 billion.

所以你可以看到，如果我們只看第三季度，前 100 個基點——這是 28 億美元的例證，200 個基點是 45 億美元。

So as we clip away, 25 basis points a time, our $2.8 billion will start to come down.

因此，當我們一次削減 25 個基點時，我們的 28 億美元將開始下降。

And so, that's broadly the outlook.

所以，這就是大致的前景。

And the next 10-Q will show the next -- (multiple speakers).

下一個 10-Q 將顯示下一個——（多位發言者）。

And the next 10-Q will show the next.

下一個 10-Q 將顯示下一個。

But obviously, it's less and less as rates go up.

但顯然，隨著利率的上升，它越來越少。

It's not linear.

它不是線性的。

And then just --

然後只是——

Unless we actively change the ratio, which we may also do at one point.

除非我們主動改變比率，我們也可能在某一時刻這樣做。

And that is actually -- getting to my follow-up question.

這實際上是我的後續問題。

I mean, on the size of the balance sheet, you did talk about loan growth of about 10% this year.

我的意思是，就資產負債表的規模而言，您確實談到了今年的貸款增長約 10%。

If you look full year 2016 versus 2015, the balance sheet or the earning assets only rose 1%.

如果將 2016 年全年與 2015 年相比，資產負債表或盈利資產僅增長 1%。

So maybe tie that into, as you think about duration, the fact that you're sitting on a lot of liquidity and cash, and how we should think about both overall growth in the balance sheet, and then potentially some more remixing?

因此，當您考慮持續時間時，可能會將其與您擁有大量流動性和現金的事實聯繫起來，以及我們應該如何考慮資產負債表的整體增長，然後可能會進行更多的重新組合？

Yes.

是的。

So I mean, what you saw happen in 2016 was not only obviously a rotation from securities and deploying deposits into loans, but also we took a very large amount of non-operating deposits out of the balance sheet in 2016.

所以我的意思是，你在 2016 年看到的不僅明顯是證券輪換和將存款配置為貸款，而且我們在 2016 年將大量非經營性存款從資產負債表中剔除。

So that is having an impact.

所以這是有影響的。

But we would expect to continue to grow our loans, to grow our deposits strongly to manage the overall balance sheet through our investment securities portfolio.

但我們預計將繼續增加貸款，大幅增加存款，以通過我們的投資證券組合管理整體資產負債表。

And from here, if everything continues to be as the market implies, we should see margin expansion.

從這裡開始，如果一切繼續如市場所暗示的那樣，我們應該會看到利潤率擴大。

Okay.

好的。

All right, thank you.

好噠。謝謝你們。

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Kleinhanzl from KBW.

您的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Brian Kleinhanzl。

Hi, good morning.

早上好。

Good morning.

早上好。

Just a quick question on the credit and reserve releases, as it relates to the energy and metals and mining portfolio.

只是一個關於信貸和儲備釋放的快速問題，因為它與能源、金屬和礦業投資組合有關。

Now that you've actually seen some better credit in there, how much of the reserves are left in that portfolio, and can you still see reserve releases going forward?

既然您實際上已經看到了一些更好的信貸，那麼該投資組合中還剩下多少準備金，您還能看到未來的準備金釋放嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So answer is across the metals and mining and energy, we have a little over $1.5 billion of reserves.

所以答案是在金屬、採礦和能源領域，我們的儲量略高於 15 億美元。

I mean, there is a normal level of reserves that we will have, that would be a large chunk of that.

我的意思是，我們將擁有正常水平的儲備，這將是其中的很大一部分。

And as you saw in 2016, we did take charge-offs of a little less than $300 million.

正如你在 2016 年看到的那樣，我們確實扣除了不到 3 億美元的費用。

So we will continue to likely see on a name specific basis, as people work through their business models, that there will be more charge-offs.

因此，隨著人們通過他們的商業模式工作，我們可能會繼續在特定名稱的基礎上看到更多的沖銷。

But ultimately, if energy stays stable or improves, and of course, we have to see that be somewhat sustained, and find its way flowing through the financial statements of our clients.

但最終，如果能源保持穩定或有所改善，當然，我們必須看到這種情況在一定程度上持續下去，並在我們客戶的財務報表中找到它的方式。

Then as we upgrade them, God willing, then we will see more reserve releases.

然後，當我們升級它們時，上帝保佑，然後我們將看到更多的儲備版本。

But it's going to take some time.

但這需要一些時間。

We'll start to see some of that -- and think about the large reserves we took.

我們將開始看到其中的一些——並考慮我們採取的大量儲備。

We took them at the tail end of 2015 and into 2016, we'll start to see new financial data from our clients.

我們在 2015 年末採用了它們，到 2016 年，我們將開始看到來自客戶的新財務數據。

We'll start to do the borrowing base redeterminations, and look at the impact of prices on reserves in the spring.

我們將開始重新確定借款基數，並研究春季價格對準備金的影響。

And so, we'll start getting some data this year, and so we may see some more releases, but it's going to come through over time.

因此，今年我們將開始獲得一些數據，因此我們可能會看到更多版本，但隨著時間的推移它會出現。

Okay, thanks.

好的謝謝。

And then, also on CRE, again strong loan growth year over year.

然後，同樣在 CRE 上，貸款同比增長再次強勁。

I mean, I understand that you're focusing in these housing-constrained markets, but is there a limit to how much you can grow in those markets?

我的意思是，我知道您專注於這些住房受限的市場，但是您在這些市場中的增長是否有限制？

Yes, I mean, I would say that when I talk about the overall core loan growth going down, still being strong, it does reflect the fact that we've been seeing very strong outperformance in our growth over the course of the last couple of years, particularly in commercial term lending.

是的，我的意思是，當我談到整體核心貸款增長下降但仍然強勁時，它確實反映了這樣一個事實，即我們在過去幾年的增長中看到了非常強勁的增長表現。年，特別是在商業定期貸款方面。

And while we continue to believe there's great opportunities there, they will be lower.

雖然我們仍然相信那裡有很大的機會，但它們會更低。

So we've been printing in the teens pretty consistently, and I would say, it will be less red hot, and maybe more in the high single-digits, but we're going to keep you updated.

所以我們在十幾歲的時候一直在印刷，我想說，它會不那麼火爆，也許更多的是高個位數，但我們會讓你更新。

Okay, thanks.

好的謝謝。

There's still plenty of opportunity.

機會還是很多的。

Your next question comes from the line of Eric Wasserstrom from Guggenheim.

您的下一個問題來自古根海姆的 Eric Wasserstrom。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Marianne, just to follow-up, a couple more questions on card.

瑪麗安，只是為了跟進，還有幾個問題。

I know you've talked quite a bit about it already.

我知道你已經談了很多了。

But one of the sort of conventional wisdoms at the moment is that 2016 represented the pinnacle of the intensification of the competitive environment.

但目前的一種傳統觀點是，2016 年代表了競爭環境加劇的頂峰。

And I just wanted to get your thoughts on whether that's an accurate assessment or not?

我只是想听聽你的想法，這是否是一個準確的評估？

Well, I don't know that I would ever try to decide what moment in time, is the pinnacle.

好吧，我不知道我是否會嘗試決定什麼時候才是巔峰。

But I would say, you saw us invest heavily in the business in 2015 and 2016 across a number of different fronts.

但我想說，您看到我們在 2015 年和 2016 年在多個不同領域對業務進行了大量投資。

You saw us proactively renegotiating the card program deals for the vast majority of our portfolio, and investing very heavily in exciting new products.

您看到我們為我們的絕大多數產品組合積極重新談判卡計劃交易，並在令人興奮的新產品上投入巨資。

And in both cases, while it has had an impact on our revenues, in one case in the short-term, and another case more structurally, in both cases these are still very attractive returns.

在這兩種情況下，雖然它對我們的收入產生了影響，但在一種情況下是短期的，另一種是結構性的，在這兩種情況下，這些仍然是非常有吸引力的回報。

And so, card is still a very attractive ROE business, very important to our customers.

因此，卡仍然是一個非常有吸引力的 ROE 業務，對我們的客戶非常重要。

We are after deep engaged relationships through time with them.

隨著時間的推移，我們與他們建立了深厚的關係。

And so, we are going to continue to invest in growth.

因此，我們將繼續投資於增長。

Great.

偉大的。

And just on that point, the ROA expectations that you have as a consequence of the trends that you just underscored, do you consider these to be, sustainable as you get back to that 11% kind of revenue yield?

就在這一點上，由於您剛剛強調的趨勢，您對 ROA 的預期，您認為這些是可持續的，因為您回到了 11% 的收入收益率？

At this point, yes.

在這一點上，是的。

Okay, great.

好，太棒了。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Your next question comes from the line of Steven Chubak from Nomura.

您的下一個問題來自野村的 Steven Chubak。

Hi, Jamie.

嗨，傑米。

I wanted to start off with a big picture question on the trading side.

我想從交易方面的一個大問題開始。

You made some recent remarks talking about the outlook for the [FICC] business, and alluded to roughly half of the declines versus the peak being attributable to cyclical as well as secular factors, and a lot of FICC optimism in particular that we've spoken with have really latched on to your remarks.

您最近發表了一些關於 [FICC] 業務前景的評論，並暗示大約一半的跌幅與峰值可歸因於週期性和長期因素，尤其是我們所說的許多 FICC 樂觀情緒真的很關注你的言論。

And I was hoping you could provide context as to how you determine the 50/50 split.

我希望您能提供有關如何確定 50/50 拆分的背景信息。

Should we be taking those comments so literally?

我們應該按字面意思看待這些評論嗎？

And how you're thinking about the FICC fee [portfolio] trajectory overall, as some of those cyclical headwinds abate?

隨著一些週期性逆風減弱，您如何看待 FICC 費用 [投資組合] 的整體軌跡？

We did try to actually analyze it, because we got asked a lot about what was secular.

我們確實嘗試過實際分析它，因為我們被問到很多關於什麼是世俗的問題。

So you could break apart your exotic derivatives, certain types of CDOs.

所以你可以分解你的奇異衍生品，某些類型的 CDO。

Of course, across the whole spectrum, there are things that disappeared and won't be done no more, for better or worse.

當然，在整個範圍內，有些事情已經消失並且不會再做，無論好壞。

In some cases, by the way, like a CDOs it didn't go away, because the person is still a credit buyer.

順便說一句，在某些情況下，就像 CDO 一樣，它並沒有消失，因為這個人仍然是信貸買家。

So they just went to another product, but that was our best estimate.

所以他們只是去了另一種產品，但這是我們最好的估計。

I don't want to over do it or anything like that.

我不想做太多或類似的事情。

I also said that the actual market making requirements are going to be going up over time, I'm talking about over 20 years, I'm not talking about the next quarter or next month.

我還說過，實際做市需求會隨著時間的推移而上升，我說的是 20 年以上，我不是在談論下一個季度或下個月。

And remember, we don't run the business next quarter, next month, because assets under management are going up, and needs of corporations are going up.

請記住，我們不會在下個季度、下個月開展業務，因為管理的資產在增加，而公司的需求也在增加。

The fixed income mortgage is going to go up, the needs for FX is going up, the needs for hedging is going up.

固定收益抵押貸款將上升，外匯需求上升，對沖需求上升。

So over time, we know there's going to be a cyclical increase.

因此，隨著時間的推移，我們知道將會出現週期性增長。

And we just try to estimate how much of the [downturn] is cyclical, and so, there will be a flip side of that.

我們只是試圖估計 [經濟衰退] 有多少是周期性的，因此會有另一面。

And I think you might have gotten to the end of the secular, end of cyclical decline.

而且我認為你可能已經走到了長期衰退的盡頭，也就是周期性衰退的盡頭。

Thanks, Jamie.

謝謝，傑米。

That's extremely helpful color.

這是非常有用的顏色。

And Marianne, maybe just switching over to the expense side for a moment.

還有瑪麗安，也許只是暫時切換到費用方面。

You also provided very helpful detail on some of the drivers of the strong expense progress that you're seeing in CIB in particular.

您還提供了非常有用的詳細信息，說明了您在 CIB 中看到的強勁支出增長的一些驅動因素。

And from what I recall, last year's update, Daniel actually guided to an expense target of about $19 billion by 2017.

據我記得，去年的更新，丹尼爾實際上指導到 2017 年的支出目標約為 190 億美元。

It looks like you've gotten there essentially a year early.

看起來你基本上提前一年到達那裡。

And I'm wondering whether there are more savings initiatives that have not yet been filtered through, and could potentially accrete in the coming year?

我想知道是否還有更多的儲蓄計劃尚未通過，並且可能在來年增加？

So I will obviously, give you a lot more detail about all of this at Investor Day, but really quick, because I knew the $19 billion would get some excitement.

所以我顯然會在投資者日給你更多關於這一切的細節，但很快，因為我知道這 190 億美元會讓人興奮。

If you go back, and talk to yourself to look at the specifics on the slide, you should see that the $19 billion that he guided to did have some assumptions about some legal costs in there.

如果你回過頭來，自言自語地查看幻燈片上的細節，你應該會看到他指導的 190 億美元確實對其中的一些法律成本做出了一些假設。

The CIB didn't have legal costs in the year.

CIB 在這一年沒有法律費用。

And as a result, it's still a little higher on an apples-to-apples basis than that would imply.

因此，在蘋果對蘋果的基礎上，它仍然比這暗示的要高一點。

Additionally, I talked about the tail winds in terms of a stronger dollar.

此外，我談到了美元走強的順風。

Now for full disclosure we have intentionally reinvested some of that, but it was a tail wind that meant that apples-to-apples, it would still be a little higher.

現在為了全面披露，我們有意對其中的一些進行再投資，但這是順風，這意味著蘋果對蘋果，它仍然會更高一點。

I'd tell you that compared to the targets that they set, we still have a few hundred million dollars to deliver on, and Daniel will go through that at Investor Day.

我會告訴你，與他們設定的目標相比，我們還有幾億美元要兌現，丹尼爾將在投資者日完成這項工作。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks for taking my questions.

感謝您提出我的問題。

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Lim from [SocGen].

您的下一個問題來自 [SocGen] 的 Andrew Lim。

Hi, good morning.

早上好。

Was just wondering if we could talk a bit about rate of trading.

只是想知道我們是否可以談談交易率。

I mean, to my mind, that was a product that's done particularly well this quarter.

我的意思是，在我看來，這是本季度表現特別好的產品。

But I was wondering looking forward, how you see that performing, whether it's supported by what's going on in the yield curve?

但我想知道展望未來，你如何看待這種表現，它是否受到收益率曲線中正在發生的事情的支持？

Or whether do you see that supported more by sort of like one-off euphoria around the election, so maybe that might tail off a little bit?

或者你是否認為這種支持更多的是圍繞選舉的一次性興奮，所以也許這可能會有所減弱？

And then just moving on from that, how do you view the opportunities for growth in your capital markets businesses, your CIB versus say, your lending businesses?

然後繼續前進，您如何看待資本市場業務、CIB 與貸款業務的增長機會？

Are you equally enthusiastic about both, and given the opportunity sets going forward, or do you see some being more positive than others?

您是否對兩者都充滿熱情，並且考慮到未來的機會，還是您認為有些人比其他人更積極？

Okay, so just to talk about rate trading for a second.

好的，所以只談一談利率交易。

You're right, that it was a part of the strength story in the fourth quarter this year.

你是對的，這是今年第四季度實力故事的一部分。

It was also a strong fourth quarter last year, which is pretty much the only reason why we didn't call it out as a bigger driver of the year-over-year growth, but it was a strong performance in the quarter.

去年第四季度也是強勁的，這幾乎是我們沒有將其稱為同比增長的更大推動力的唯一原因，但這是該季度的強勁表現。

And we would expect that to continue.

我們預計這種情況會繼續下去。

It's much more interesting to -- for our clients to trade around a moving yield curve and rates above zero.

更有趣的是——讓我們的客戶圍繞移動的收益率曲線和高於零的利率進行交易。

So as we see rates normalize, we would fully expect that to be ultimately a beneficiary to the franchise in terms of clients trading, and positioning, and hedging around that over time.

因此，當我們看到利率正常化時，我們完全預計，隨著時間的推移，在客戶交易、定位和對沖方面，這最終將成為特許經營權的受益者。

And so, [wonderful] if that would be the case.

所以，[太好了]如果是這樣的話。

In terms of the excitement and the enthusiasm of our businesses, lending versus we're enthusiastic about all of our businesses, and would want to defend share and grow them all.

就我們業務的興奮和熱情而言，借貸與我們對所有業務的熱情相比，我們希望捍衛份額並發展它們。

I mean, the reality of the CIB revenue performance in markets, and in general, it was very strong in 2016.

我的意思是，CIB 在市場上的收入表現的現實，總的來說，它在 2016 年非常強勁。

So we will try our hardest to replicate that.

因此，我們將盡最大努力複製它。

But it will be a challenging comparison, but we're proud of it.

但這將是一個具有挑戰性的比較，但我們為此感到自豪。

So we gained share competitively over the course of the last couple years, and so I don't think you should necessarily expect that we can continue to gain share at that pace; but defend it we will.

因此，我們在過去幾年中競爭性地獲得了份額，因此我認為您不必期望我們可以繼續以這種速度獲得份額；但我們會捍衛它。

I mean, it sounds maybe that you'll (laughter) the pressures of year-on-year growth, in the CIB business but you're not really highlighting that in terms of your lending businesses, which obviously you'd expect further margins to grow, the loan books to grow.

我的意思是，聽起來你可能會（笑）CIB業務的同比增長壓力，但你並沒有真正強調你的貸款業務，顯然你會期望更高的利潤增長，貸款書增長。

I think the better way to look at CIB lending, is it's kind of episodic, and goes in and out.

我認為看待 CIB 貸款的更好方法是，它是一種偶發性的，進進出出。

Corporations, a lot of corporations don't need to borrow, and when they do, it may be inconsistent.

公司，很多公司不需要藉貸，而當他們這樣做時，可能會不一致。

It might be because of M&A or something like that.

這可能是因為併購或類似的事情。

Our [bridge] book will always be driven by certain types of activity, so the loan book isn't something -- the CIB loan book isn't something you're going to say, that you're growing.

我們的 [橋樑] 賬簿將始終由某些類型的活動驅動，因此貸款賬簿不是什麼——CIB 貸款簿不是你要說的，你正在成長的東西。

That is more serving clients in the way they need.

那就是以他們需要的方式為客戶提供更多的服務。

One of the things I just want to point out which is, of course, all of our businesses, but just take trading in particular is, we're always creating efficiencies.

我只想指出的一件事當然是我們所有的業務，但尤其是交易，我們一直在創造效率。

Part of what we're investing is big data, is [trade] through processing, electronic exchanges, online services.

我們投資的一部分是大數據，是通過處理、電子交換、在線服務進行[貿易]。

I think 97% of FX -- I think it's 50% to 60% of US interest rate swaps, all these things have become electronic and digitized, as trade through for clients.

我認為 97% 的外匯——我認為是美國利率掉期的 50% 到 60%，所有這些都已電子化和數字化，為客戶進行交易。

So that's where some of the investments are going.

所以這就是一些投資的去向。

And you're going to see more of that not less, but it also creates another round of efficiencies every time we do that.

而且你會看到更多而不是更少，但每次我們這樣做時，它也會創造另一輪效率。

That's great.

那太棒了。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Your next question comes from the line of Gerard Cassidy from RBC.

您的下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Gerard Cassidy。

Good morning, Marianne.

早上好，瑪麗安。

Good morning.

早上好。

How are you?

你好嗎？

Good.

好的。

Can you give us some color, in the past you've talked about -- in the multifamily, I know you commented on that in your prepared remarks, on your multifamily book, some of the markets that you continue to be a little leary of, can you give us an update to those types of thoughts?

您能否給我們一些色彩，在過去您談到過 - 在多戶家庭中，我知道您在準備好的評論中評論了這一點，在您的多戶家庭書籍中，您仍然對一些市場保持警惕，你能給我們更新一下這些想法嗎？

Yes, so we talked before about -- we had in certain markets already pulled back, not necessarily because we had a crystal ball, but because we saw them getting soft before the energy decline.

是的，所以我們之前談到過——我們在某些市場已經回落，不一定是因為我們有一個水晶球，而是因為我們看到它們在能源下降之前變得疲軟。

Dallas and Houston would be examples, parts of Brooklyn would be examples of that.

達拉斯和休斯頓就是例子，布魯克林的部分地區就是例子。

I would say, watching more carefully -- you've seen us, we have that there is some supply coming through in markets, Seattle, Denver, D.C., San Francisco.

我會說，更仔細地觀察——你已經看到了我們，我們有一些市場供應，西雅圖、丹佛、D.C.、舊金山。

We're still very active there, but just keeping an eye on those markets.

我們在那裡仍然非常活躍，但只是密切關注這些市場。

But the supply pipeline, while it's real does not look like it did when we saw the real pressure on the term lending business, the real estate business back in the 1980s and 1990s.

但是，當我們看到 1980 年代和 1990 年代的長期貸款業務（即房地產業務）面臨的真正壓力時，供應管道雖然是真實的，但看起來並不像它那樣。

So we're keeping an eye on it.

所以我們一直在關注它。

Okay, great.

好，太棒了。

And I know you talked about the duration of the securities portfolio, it's in line with -- (multiple speakers)

我知道你談到了證券投資組合的持續時間，它符合——（多位發言者）

(Inaudible) I'll add, we don't want to give you all of our secrets in that business, but we do (inaudible).

（聽不清）我要補充一點，我們不想向您透露我們在該業務中的所有秘密，但我們願意（聽不清）。

But we're very disciplined about where we see supply, and supply and demand and pricing, and we would have no problem, not growing at all.

但我們對供應、供需和定價非常嚴格，我們不會有任何問題，根本不會增長。

We don't sit at meetings here and say, can you grow at 10%, can you grow to [12%]?

我們不會在這裡開會說，你能增長 10%，你能增長到 [12%] 嗎？

No, if we can't meet what we think is proper risk return, we're not going to grow at all.

不，如果我們不能達到我們認為適當的風險回報，我們就根本不會增長。

We'll shrink.

我們會縮小。

We have no problem doing that.

我們這樣做沒有問題。

And so, the other thing I want to point out about CTLs, the exceptional performance of the CTLs through the last Great Recession.

因此，關於 CTL，我想指出的另一件事是，CTL 在上一次大衰退期間的出色表現。

I mean, we were really pleased with how that happened.

我的意思是，我們真的很高興這是怎麼發生的。

So we try to look at all these things through the cycle, not just what are they doing in good times.

因此，我們嘗試著眼於整個週期中的所有這些事情，而不僅僅是他們在好時光裡在做什麼。

Certainly.

當然。

And Marianne, coming back to the investment portfolio, obviously you talked a little bit about the duration.

瑪麗安，回到投資組合，顯然你談到了持續時間。

Do you have the actual duration of it in years, this quarter versus the third quarter?

您是否知道本季度與第三季度的實際持續時間（以年為單位）？

We don't disclose that.

我們不透露這一點。

Okay.

好的。

All right, thank you.

好噠。謝謝你們。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Your next question comes from the line of Matt Burnell from Wells Fargo.

您的下一個問題來自 Wells Fargo 的 Matt Burnell。

Good morning.

早上好。

Just a quick question for you, Marianne.

瑪麗安，給你一個簡單的問題。

In terms of the mortgage, in the overall picture, I understand why you're talking about maybe 10% core loan growth rather than 15% more recently.

就抵押貸款而言，總體而言，我理解您為什麼說核心貸款增長可能為 10%，而不是最近的 15%。

But just within the residential mortgage portfolio, it looks like that slowed in the fourth quarter, third and fourth quarter from a mid teens year-over-year rate, to a low single-digit quarter-over-quarter rate.

但僅在住宅抵押貸款投資組合中，第四季度、第三和第四季度的同比增長率似乎從十幾歲的中間水平放緩至低個位數的季度環比水平。

Can you give us a little more color as to what's going on there?

你能給我們更多關於那裡發生的事情的顏色嗎？

Are you buying -- or are slowing your purchases of your own originations, or is that -- is there something else going on there?

您是在購買 - 還是正在放慢購買自己的原創作品的速度，或者是這樣 - 那裡還有其他事情發生嗎？

So, there's a couple different things.

所以，有幾件不同的事情。

First of all, we, about a little more than half of our originations are jumbo.

首先，我們大約有一半多一點的創作都是巨型的。

We retain all of those.

我們保留所有這些。

And then, when you look at the conforming space, it's really, honestly, consistently the best execution decision.

然後，當您查看符合標準的空間時，它確實是，老實說，始終如一的最佳執行決策。

And so in particularly in this quarter, it speaks a bit more to our correspondent conforming volume, it's the lowest margin product.

因此，特別是在本季度，它更多地說明了我們對應的合格數量，它是利潤率最低的產品。

And it does somewhat frequently toggle backwards and forwards in terms of better execution, whether we would retain or sell it.

無論我們是保留還是出售它，它確實經常在更好的執行方面前後切換。

But we intend to keep adding to our portfolio, we like the mortgage asset classes.

但我們打算繼續增加我們的投資組合，我們喜歡抵押資產類別。

Even those spreads have compressed in the fourth quarter, OAS and ROEs are holding up.

即使這些利差在第四季度有所壓縮，OAS 和 ROE 也保持穩定。

And so, I would expect us to continue to grow it strongly.

因此，我希望我們繼續強勁增長。

And from quarter to quarter, it may go up or down a few percent, but over a year, we'll continue to add to the portfolio.

從一個季度到另一個季度，它可能會上升或下降幾個百分點，但在一年多的時間裡，我們將繼續增加投資組合。

Okay.

好的。

So no real change in your thinking there?

所以你的想法沒有真正的改變嗎？

No.

不。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝你。

That's it for me.

對我來說就是這樣。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Your final question comes from the line of Marty Mosby from Vining Sparks.

您的最後一個問題來自 Vining Sparks 的 Marty Mosby。

Thanks for taking my questions.

感謝您提出我的問題。

The thing that jumped out at me was, if you looked at the asset management group, you had $21 billion of long-term product outflows, and you had $35 billion of liquidity products inflows.

我突然想到的是，如果你看看資產管理集團，你有 210 億美元的長期產品流出，你有 350 億美元的流動性產品流入。

And it seems like now that we're getting past the financial crisis, when everybody was looking at liquidity, that combining that with continued deposit growth, we're not seeing a change in that perspective, but there's still a premium for increasing liquidity still?

現在看來，我們已經度過了金融危機，當時每個人都在關注流動性，再加上存款的持續增長，我們沒有看到這種觀點發生變化，但增加流動性仍然存在溢價?

I think there was a little bit of that in the fourth quarter, particularly around actively managed product.

我認為第四季度有一點，尤其是在主動管理產品方面。

I think you're accurate.

我認為你是準確的。

But we haven't seen everybody else yet, but I think you will be true, when we see everybody.

但是我們還沒有看到其他人，但我認為當我們看到每個人時你會是真的。

Do you foresee that premium for liquidity lessening, as we kind of go into the rerisking of a better economy, and some things that improve the outlook?

您是否預見到流動性減少的溢價，因為我們會重新考慮改善經濟的風險，以及一些改善前景的事情？

That's a really hard question to answer.

這真是一個很難回答的問題。

I'd have to think about that a little bit.

我得稍微考慮一下。

And then my last thought was, when you look at M&A, we had M&A kind of suppressed when things were more regulatory constrained, and the outlook was a negative on the overall economy and that uncertainty.

然後我的最後一個想法是，當你看併購時，當事情受到更多監管限制時，我們的併購受到了抑制，整體經濟前景和不確定性都是負面的。

Now we have this positive uncertainty.

現在我們有了這種積極的不確定性。

Wouldn't that delay some activity for at least a couple quarters, for people to kind of see where we're going to end up, and see where tax rates are, and see what we might get in deregulation that may change perspective on their long-term opportunities?

這不會將一些活動至少推遲幾個季度，讓人們看到我們最終會在哪裡，看看稅率在哪裡，看看我們可能會在放鬆管制中得到什麼，這可能會改變他們對他們的看法長期機會？

So just thought there might be a little pause here.

所以只是想這裡可能會有一點停頓。

I think that -- I mean, everything is going to end up being reasonably named specific, so I mean, that may be true in some cases.

我認為——我的意思是，一切最終都會被合理地命名為特定的，所以我的意思是，在某些情況下這可能是正確的。

But for some companies in industries, where deregulation and that would be more helpful.

但對於某些行業的公司來說，放鬆管制會更有幫助。

But generally as I said the trend is towards lower -- I'm sorry, less mega deals, more flow, and the fundamentals are in pretty good shape, and then there will possibly be tail winds, in terms of tax reform and other things.

但總的來說，正如我所說，趨勢是走低——對不起，大宗交易減少，流量增加，基本面狀況良好，然後可能會有順風，在稅收改革和其他方面.

So I think net-net, we think the underlying flow in the M&A market, and the fundamentals are set to have a pretty positive year.

所以我認為net-net，我們認為併購市場的潛在流動，以及基本面將有一個非常積極的一年。

I just thought maybe in the second half versus the first half, but thanks for your response.

我只是想也許在下半場和上半場，但感謝您的回复。

We'll see.

我們拭目以待。

No more questions, operator?

沒有更多的問題，接線員？

There are no further questions.

沒有進一步的問題。

All right.

好的。

Thank you, everyone.

謝謝大家。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝你。

This does conclude today's call.

這確實結束了今天的電話會議。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連接。