摩根大通 (JPM) 2017 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen.

早上好，女士們，先生們。

Welcome to JPMorgan Chase's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Earnings Call.

歡迎參加摩根大通 2017 年第四季度和全年財報電話會議。

This call is being recorded.

正在錄製此通話。

(Operator Instructions) We will now go to -- live to the presentation.

（操作員說明）我們現在將進行現場演示。

Please stand by.

請待命。

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to JPMorgan Chase's Chairman and CEO, Jamie Dimon; and Chief Financial Officer, Marianne Lake.

在這個時候，我想把電話轉給摩根大通的董事長兼首席執行官傑米戴蒙；和首席財務官，瑪麗安湖。

Ms. Lake, please go ahead.

萊克女士，請繼續。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Good morning, everyone.

大家，早安。

I'm going to take you through the earnings presentation, which is available on our website.

我將帶您了解收益演示文稿，該演示文稿可在我們的網站上找到。

Please refer to the disclaimer at the back of the presentation.

請參閱演示文稿背面的免責聲明。

Starting on Page 1. The firm reported net income of $4.2 billion, EPS of $1.07 and a return on tangible common equity of 8% on revenue of $25.5 billion.

從第 1 頁開始。該公司報告的淨收入為 42 億美元，每股收益為 1.07 美元，有形普通股的回報率為 8%，收入為 255 億美元。

The impact of the U.S. tax reform is the one significant item we have this quarter.

美國稅制改革的影響是我們本季度的一個重要項目。

We reported a $2.4 billion reduction to our fourth quarter net income.

我們報告第四季度淨收入減少了 24 億美元。

Excluding this, our performance would have been $6.7 billion of net income, EPS of $1.76 per share with an ROTCE of 13%.

不包括這一點，我們的業績將是 67 億美元的淨收入，每股收益為 1.76 美元，ROTCE 為 13%。

Similar to the last few quarters, our underlying results were quite strong in the fourth quarter, and highlights included average core loan growth of 6% year-on-year, bringing us to 8% for the full year; and credit performance continued to be very strong; a good holiday season fueled double-digit growth in Card sales and merchant volumes, each up 13%; our client investment assets were up 17%; we maintained our #1 rank in global IBCs and we grew share; and we had record net income and revenue in the Commercial Bank and record revenue and AUM in Asset & Wealth Management.

與過去幾個季度類似，我們在第四季度的基本業績相當強勁，其中亮點包括平均核心貸款同比增長 6%，使我們全年達到 8%；信貸表現持續強勁；良好的假期旺季推動卡銷售和商戶數量實現兩位數增長，均增長 13%；我們的客戶投資資產增長了 17%；我們在全球 IBC 中保持第一的排名，並且我們的份額有所增長；我們在商業銀行實現了創紀錄的淨收入和收入，在資產和財富管理方面實現了創紀錄的收入和資產管理規模。

Before I go into our results, let's spend time on tax reform on Page 2. The $2.4 billion impact of tax reform was largely driven by a deemed repatriation of our unremitted overseas earnings as well as an adjustment to the value of our tax-oriented investments, including affordable housing and energy.

在我進入我們的結果之前，讓我們花時間在第 2 頁上討論稅收改革。稅收改革的 24 億美元影響主要是由於我們將未匯出的海外收入視為匯回，以及對我們以稅收為導向的投資價值的調整，包括經濟適用房和能源。

These were partially offset by a benefit from the revaluation of our net deferred tax liability.

這些被我們的淨遞延所得稅負債重估帶來的收益部分抵消。

The impact is primarily in Corporate, but as you can see, there was some impact to each of the CIB and the Commercial Bank.

影響主要在企業，但正如您所見，對 CIB 和商業銀行都有一些影響。

The capital impact is $1.2 billion higher at $3.6 billion or about 25 basis points of CET1.

資本影響增加 12 億美元，達到 36 億美元，約為 CET1 的 25 個基點。

And our effective tax rate will be approximately 19% this year and 20% over the near term, think through 2020, after which, it should start to gradually increase as certain business credits are phased out over time.

今年我們的有效稅率約為 19%，短期內為 20%，考慮到 2020 年，之後隨著某些商業信貸的逐步取消，它應該會開始逐漸增加。

While there is now an enacted bill, and with that, there's more clarity, there are still a number of open implementations as well as accounting questions that will require clarification.

雖然現在已經頒布了一項法案，並且有了更多的明確性，但仍有許多開放的實施以及需要澄清的會計問題。

And as such, our estimated impact may be refined in future quarters.

因此，我們估計的影響可能會在未來幾個季度得到完善。

That said, I know there are a number of important questions which I'll try and get you clarity on.

也就是說，我知道有一些重要的問題，我會盡力讓你弄清楚。

First, with respect to the deemed repatriations, the operative word for us is deemed.

首先，關於視為遣返，我們的執行詞被視為。

In many ways, you can think of our unremitted overseas earnings as the equivalent of bricks and mortar being required in order to meet local jurisdictional capital and liquidity requirements.

在許多方面，您可以將我們未匯出的海外收入視為滿足當地司法管轄區資本和流動性要求所需的實體。

So we do not expect to actually remit anything significant.

因此，我們並不期望實際匯出任何重大款項。

Second, although the reduction in the corporate tax rate was 14%, you can see that the reduction in our effective tax rate is only about 10%, given the impact of the geographic mix of our taxable income, the disallowance of FDIC fees and smaller benefits associated with tax-exempt income and other deductions as a result of the lower absolute rate.

其次，雖然公司稅率降低了 14%，但您可以看到，考慮到我們的應稅收入的地理組合、FDIC 費用的不允許和較小的影響，我們的有效稅率降低了大約 10%。由於較低的絕對稅率，與免稅收入和其他扣除相關的福利。

Moving on to the BEAT tax.

繼續討論 BEAT 稅。

This is an area where there do remain open questions.

這是一個確實存在未解決問題的領域。

However, at this point, we do not expect to have a BEAT liability.

但是，在這一點上，我們預計不會承擔 BEAT 責任。

But if we're wrong, we would not expect it to be material.

但如果我們錯了，我們不會期望它是實質性的。

Next, the question of whether the benefit will be competed away and, if so, over what time line.

接下來是利益是否會被競爭的問題，如果是，在什麼時間線上。

Pricing strategy will differ across products.

定價策略因產品而異。

It is true that we operate in competitive and transparent markets, and this means that, ultimately, you could expect some of the benefit for the industry will be passed through to our customers over time.

誠然，我們在競爭激烈且透明的市場中運營，這意味著最終，您可以期望隨著時間的推移，該行業的一些利益將傳遞給我們的客戶。

Competition is one key driver, but there are other factors, such as scale, expertise, the breadth of your products and services and the investments that you're making in customer experience, and these matter a lot.

競爭是一個關鍵驅動因素，但還有其他因素，例如規模、專業知識、產品和服務的廣度以及您在客戶體驗方面所做的投資，這些都很重要。

And for certain of our businesses, pricing is not necessarily directly or immediately driven by fluctuations in the cost of capital, think flow markets.

對於我們的某些業務，定價不一定直接或立即由資本成本波動驅動，想想流動市場。

And remember, we didn't get to price up the changes in market structure and capital and liquidity over the last several years.

請記住，我們沒有對過去幾年市場結構、資本和流動性的變化進行定價。

So it will be nuanced, it will be different across products, and time is a very important dimension.

所以會有細微差別，會因產品而異，時間是一個非常重要的維度。

Any competitive dynamics will play out over time.

任何競爭動態都會隨著時間的推移而發揮作用。

We are in the process of putting together a cohesive and comprehensive set of long-term and sustainable actions for our employees, for customers and communities in part in response to tax reform.

我們正在為我們的員工、客戶和社區製定一套連貫而全面的長期可持續行動，部分是為了響應稅收改革。

Some of our plans may involve subsidies for lower-income borrowers and support for small businesses.

我們的一些計劃可能涉及對低收入借款人的補貼和對小企業的支持。

And for these customers and for some others, they may feel a benefit sooner.

對於這些客戶和其他一些客戶，他們可能會更快地感受到好處。

With respect to our capital plan, there are no immediate changes to note.

關於我們的資本計劃，沒有立即需要注意的變化。

This won't change our overall strategy, and remember, the first half of 2018 is governed by last year's CCAR.

這不會改變我們的整體戰略，請記住，2018 年上半年由去年的 CCAR 管理。

Finally, on the potential impact to our businesses, the modernization of the U.S. tax code is a significant step forward for the country and a big win for the economy.

最後，就對我們企業的潛在影響而言，美國稅法的現代化是美國向前邁出的重要一步，也是經濟的一大勝利。

And we include an estimated 20 to 30 basis points of growth in the U.S. this year and next.

我們包括今年和明年美國估計的 20 到 30 個基點的增長。

However, clients are still digesting the tax bill, and much like this rate cycle, we haven't seen this movie before.

然而，客戶仍在消化稅單，就像這個費率週期一樣，我們以前沒有看過這部電影。

We'll have to watch it play out.

我們將不得不看著它發揮作用。

There will be pluses and minuses by clients and pluses and minuses across the products.

客戶會有優缺點，產品也會有優缺點。

So overall, stepping back, tax reform is a positive.

所以總的來說，退一步說，稅收改革是積極的。

And for our clients, there's more certainty, more clarity, and that should give them confidence to act.

對於我們的客戶來說，有更多的確定性、更多的清晰性，這應該讓他們有信心採取行動。

Moving now to Page 3, let's get into some details on the fourth quarter results.

現在轉到第 3 頁，讓我們詳細了解第四季度的業績。

Revenue of $25.5 billion was up $1.1 billion or 5% year-on-year as net interest income was up $1.3 billion, mainly reflecting the impact of higher rates and continued strong loan and deposit growth, partially offset by lower NII in Markets.

收入為 255 億美元，同比增長 11 億美元或 5%，淨利息收入增長 13 億美元，主要反映了利率上升和貸款和存款持續強勁增長的影響，部分被市場 NII 下降所抵消。

Loan interest revenue was down modestly as growth in Auto as well as Asset & Wealth Management partially made up for lower Markets performance.

貸款利息收入小幅下降，因為汽車以及資產和財富管理的增長部分彌補了較低的市場表現。

Adjusted expense of $14.8 billion was up 9% year-on-year, reflecting higher compensation expense as well as business growth, including Auto lease depreciation.

調整後的費用為 148 億美元，同比增長 9%，反映了更高的薪酬費用以及包括汽車租賃折舊在內的業務增長。

In the fourth quarter, we took an impairment charge of a little over $100 million related to certain leased asset in the Commercial Bank.

在第四季度，我們對商業銀行的某些租賃資產計提了 1 億多美元的減值費用。

And we increased our contribution to the foundation, adding $200 million this quarter.

我們增加了對基金會的捐款，本季度增加了 2 億美元。

Credit costs of $1.3 billion were up about $450 million year-on-year.

信貸成本為 13 億美元，同比增長約 4.5 億美元。

Charge-offs were flat, with an increase in Card being offset by continued decreases across other portfolios.

沖銷持平，卡的增加被其他投資組合的持續減少所抵消。

And although net reserve builds this quarter were modest, we saw releases in the fourth quarter of last year of approximately $400 million.

儘管本季度的淨儲備增加不多，但我們看到去年第四季度的釋放量約為 4 億美元。

Shifting to the full year on Page 4. We reported net income for the year of $24.4 billion, a return on tangible common equity of 12% and EPS of $6.31.

在第 4 頁轉到全年。我們報告了 244 億美元的年度淨收入，12% 的有形普通股回報率和 6.31 美元的每股收益。

Adjusting for the 2 front-page significant items that we had this year, being tax reform this quarter and the benefit of the WaMu settlement in the second quarter, our net income would've been another record of $26.5 billion with an ROTCE of 13% and EPS of $6.87.

調整我們今年頭版的兩個重要項目，即本季度的稅收改革和第二季度 WaMu 和解的好處，我們的淨收入將再創紀錄，達到 265 億美元，ROTCE 為 13%每股收益為 6.87 美元。

Revenue crossed back over the $100 billion threshold this year, which feels good, $104 billion, up 5%, $4.1 billion of which was higher net interest income in line with guidance, benefiting from higher rates and growth, relatively modest deposit repricing but pressured by lower Market NII.

今年收入回到了 1000 億美元的門檻，感覺不錯，1040 億美元，增長 5%，其中 41 億美元是符合指引的淨利息收入增加，受益於更高的利率和增長，相對溫和的存款重新定價，但受到壓力較低的市場 NII。

Noninterest revenue was up $400 million with higher Auto lease income as well as higher fees across the Investment Bank; Asset, Wealth Management; and Consumer, adding $2.6 billion to revenues and more than compensating for headwinds in Home Lending on a smaller market, investments in Card and lower Markets.

由於汽車租賃收入增加以及整個投資銀行的費用增加，非利息收入增加了 4 億美元；資產、財富管理；和消費者，增加了 26 億美元的收入，並彌補了較小市場的房屋貸款、信用卡和較低市場的投資的不利因素。

We ended the year with adjusted expense of $58.5 billion, but as you can see, we made a total contribution to our foundation this year of $350 million in part in anticipation of tax reform.

我們以 585 億美元的調整後支出結束了這一年，但正如你所見，我們今年為我們的基金會做出了 3.5 億美元的總捐款，部分原因是對稅收改革的預期。

This brings our adjusted overhead ratio to 57% for the year even as we continue to make very significant investments across the franchise.

即使我們繼續在整個特許經營中進行非常重大的投資，這也使我們今年調整後的間接費用比率達到 57%。

Credit cost for the year were $5.3 billion, down 1% as the environment remains benign.

由於環境保持良好，全年信貸成本為 53 億美元，下降 1%。

Moving on to Page 5, balance sheet and capital.

轉到第 5 頁，資產負債表和資本。

We ended the year with CET1 of 12.1%, down almost 40 basis points versus the prior quarter, about 25 basis points of which related to tax adjustments, and the remainder, loan growth.

我們年底的 CET1 為 12.1%，與上一季度相比下降了近 40 個基點，其中約 25 個基點與稅收調整有關，其餘與貸款增長有關。

All the other ratios as well as tangible book value per share also reflected a combination of $6.7 billion of capital distributions and the $3.6 billion impact of tax reform.

所有其他比率以及每股有形賬面價值也反映了 67 億美元的資本分配和 36 億美元的稅收改革影響。

Moving on to Page 6 on Consumer & Community Banking.

轉到第 6 頁消費者和社區銀行業務。

CCB generated $2.6 billion of net income and an ROE of 19%.

建行實現淨利潤 26 億美元，ROE 為 19%。

We continued to grow core loans, up 8% year-on-year, driven by Home Lending up 13%; and Business Banking, Card and Auto loans and leases were each up 6%.

在住房貸款增長 13% 的推動下，我們繼續增長核心貸款，同比增長 8%；商業銀行、信用卡和汽車貸款和租賃各增長 6%。

Consumer deposit growth was strong, up 7%, and we believe we are maintaining our sizable lead over the market despite an industry-wide slowdown, given rising rates.

消費者存款增長強勁，增長了 7%，我們相信，儘管利率上升，整個行業都在放緩，但我們仍保持著相當大的市場領先地位。

Card sales and merchant processing volumes were each up 13%, driven by continued strength from Card new products as well as ongoing momentum in Merchant Services.

卡銷售和商戶處理量各增長 13%，這得益於卡新產品的持續強勁以及商戶服務的持續發展勢頭。

In December, we completed the acquisition of WePay, which marks a big step for us into the integrated payment space, allowing us to efficiently provide software-enabled payments to small business clients.

12 月，我們完成了對 WePay 的收購，這標誌著我們向綜合支付領域邁出了一大步，使我們能夠有效地為小企業客戶提供軟件支付。

And we also completed the renegotiation with Marriott for our co-branded cards, which will make us the largest issuer of the largest co-branded hotel program in the world.

我們還完成了與萬豪就聯名卡的重新談判，這將使我們成為全球最大的聯名酒店項目的最大發行商。

For all intents and purposes, we've now finished the renewals of our co-branded card deals.

出於所有意圖和目的，我們現在已經完成了聯名卡交易的續訂。

Revenue of $12.1 billion was up 10% year-on-year.

收入為 121 億美元，同比增長 10%。

Consumer & Business Banking revenue was up 16% on higher NII, driven by continued margin expansion as well as strong average deposit growth.

受利潤率持續擴張以及平均存款強勁增長的推動，消費者和商業銀行業務收入增長 16%。

Home Lending revenue was down 15% on lower net servicing revenue driven by MSR as well as loan spread compression.

由於 MSR 以及貸款利差壓縮導致淨服務收入下降，房屋貸款收入下降了 15%。

Our originations were down 16% and the market's down an estimated 25%.

我們的起源下降了 16%，市場估計下降了 25%。

And we gained share, a trend we expect to continue, given our investments.

我們獲得了份額，鑑於我們的投資，我們預計這種趨勢將繼續下去。

And Card, Merchant Services & Auto revenue was up 11% year-on-year on higher Auto lease income, growth in Card loan balances and margins, and lower net acquisition costs.

卡、商戶服務和汽車收入同比增長 11%，原因是汽車租賃收入增加、卡貸款餘額和利潤率增長以及淨購置成本降低。

For the full year, Card revenue rate was 10.6%, in line with our guidance, and we still expect to reach 11.25% in the first half of this year.

全年卡收入率為 10.6%，符合我們的預期，我們仍預計今年上半年將達到 11.25%。

Expense of $6.7 billion was up 6% year-on-year, driven by higher Auto lease depreciation and continued underlying business growth.

受汽車租賃折舊率上升和基礎業務持續增長的推動，費用為 67 億美元，同比增長 6%。

The overhead ratio was 55% for the quarter, 56% for the year as the business moved past the impact of investments and started generating positive operating leverage in the second half of '17.

本季度的間接費用率為 55%，全年為 56%，因為該業務已經擺脫了投資的影響，並在 17 年下半年開始產生積極的經營槓桿。

Finally, on credit.

最後，靠信用。

Card charge-offs came in line with guidance for the year at 2.95%.

信用卡沖銷率符合今年 2.95% 的指引。

The increase in Card charge-offs was predominantly offset by preceding credit performance across other portfolios.

信用卡沖銷的增加主要被其他投資組合先前的信貸表現所抵消。

In terms of credit reserves, the net $15 million build this quarter was driven by a $200 million build in Card on growth, offset by releases in Home Lending of $150 million and Auto of $35 million.

在信貸儲備方面，本季度淨增 1500 萬美元是由卡增長 2 億美元推動的，被 1.5 億美元的房屋貸款和 3500 萬美元的汽車釋放抵消。

And as I noted last quarter, Auto trends have stabilized and the industry feels to be on solid footing.

正如我上個季度所指出的那樣，汽車趨勢已經穩定，該行業感覺基礎穩固。

Now turning to Page 7 and the Corporate & Investment Bank.

現在轉到第 7 頁和企業與投資銀行。

CIB reported net income of $2.3 billion on revenue of $7.5 billion and an ROE of 12%.

CIB 報告淨收入 23 億美元，收入 75 億美元，ROE 為 12%。

But revenue was impacted by 2 noteworthy items this quarter, and both of them had an impact in Markets, so I'll start with Markets.

但是本季度收入受到 2 個值得注意的項目的影響，並且它們都對市場產生了影響，所以我將從市場開始。

Total Markets revenue was $3.4 billion, down 26% year-on-year.

市場總收入為 34 億美元，同比下降 26%。

However, Fixed Income Markets included the net impact of tax reform on our tax-oriented investments, which was approximately $260 million, accounting for 6% of the year-on-year Markets decline.

然而，固定收益市場包括稅收改革對我們以稅收為導向的投資的淨影響，約為 2.6 億美元，佔市場同比下降的 6%。

Additionally, Equity Markets included a notable loss of $143 million on a single margin loan.

此外，Equity Markets 的單筆保證金貸款損失了 1.43 億美元。

This accounted for 3% of the year-on-year decline.

這占同比下降的3%。

It's worth noting that the loss appears here in Markets as we elected fair value option on this loan.

值得注意的是，由於我們選擇了這筆貸款的公允價值選擇權，因此損失出現在 Markets 中。

However, when you do industry comparisons, be aware that others involved in this facility may not have made that same election and may have all of their losses in credit.

但是，當您進行行業比較時，請注意參與該工具的其他人可能沒有做出相同的選擇，並且可能將所有損失都歸咎於信用。

So in addition, although not in Markets revenues, $130 million of credit cost this quarter was driven by a reserve build related to that same name.

因此，此外，儘管不在市場收入中，但本季度 1.3 億美元的信貸成本是由與同名公司相關的儲備金推動的。

So adjusting for those items, our Markets revenue would have been down 17% year-on-year, which is much closer to the experience up to the beginning of December, when we last spoke publicly.

因此，對這些項目進行調整後，我們的 Markets 收入將同比下降 17%，這與 12 月初我們最後一次公開講話時的情況更接近。

Fixed income revenue was down 27% adjusted, principally driven by a tough prior year comparison and low volatility and tight credit spreads which have continued into this quarter.

調整後的固定收益收入下降了 27%，主要是由於與去年同期相比艱難，以及持續到本季度的低波動性和緊張的信貸利差。

Equities revenue was up 12% adjusted against the record fourth quarter of '16.

與 16 年第四季度創紀錄的第四季度相比，股票收入增長了 12%。

And similar to the past few quarters, the driver of the increase was continued tailwinds from investments in cash, prime and corporate derivatives.

與過去幾個季度類似，增長的驅動力是現金、黃金和公司衍生品投資的持續順風。

Moving on to banking.

繼續銀行業。

We had a record year for total fees and for debt underwriting fees.

我們在總費用和債務承銷費方面創下了創紀錄的一年。

We maintained our #1 rank in global IBCs while growing share, and we also ranked #1 in North America and EMEA.

我們在全球 IBC 中保持第一的排名，同時份額不斷增長，我們還在北美和 EMEA 中排名第一。

This quarter, IB revenue was $1.6 billion, up 10% year-on-year, driven by broad strength across capital markets.

本季度，IB 收入為 16 億美元，同比增長 10%，這得益於資本市場的廣泛實力。

Advisory fees were up 2% as we saw good momentum with some large deals closing.

諮詢費上漲了 2%，因為我們看到了一些大宗交易完成的良好勢頭。

We ranked #2 for the year in wallet, gaining share.

我們在錢包中排名第二，獲得了份額。

And we completed more deals than any other bank.

我們完成的交易比任何其他銀行都多。

Equity underwriting fees were up 14% with indices up across every region and several at or near all-time highs.

股票承銷費上漲了 14%，各個地區的指數都上漲，有幾個指數達到或接近歷史高位。

We maintained leadership positions in wallet and volume across every product globally this year.

今年，我們在全球所有產品的錢包和銷量方面保持領先地位。

And while we ended up #2 in wallet, the distance to #1 was only a few basis points.

雖然我們最終在錢包中排名第二，但與第一名的距離只有幾個基點。

And debt underwriting fees were up 12% as the market remained receptive to new issuance across high-grade and leveraged finance and refinancing activity was strong.

由於市場仍然對高等級和槓桿融資的新發行以及再融資活動強勁，債務承銷費上漲了 12%。

We maintained our #1 rank.

我們保持了我們的第一名。

We gained share, and this year, booked [around] the most number of deals in the firm's history.

我們獲得了份額，今年，預訂了公司歷史上最多的交易。

The overall pipeline remains healthy and at levels similar to last year.

整個管道保持健康，並處於與去年相似的水平。

Our balance sheets are strong and market conditions favorable.

我們的資產負債表強勁，市場條件有利。

Treasury Services revenue of $1.1 billion was up 13%.

財資服務收入為 11 億美元，增長 13%。

In addition to higher rates, we continued to see organic growth within the business as the investments we've made over the past several years have improved our clients' experience across the platform.

除了更高的利率，我們繼續看到業務內的有機增長，因為我們在過去幾年中所做的投資改善了我們客戶在整個平台上的體驗。

Securities Services revenues of $1 billion was up 14%, driven by rates and balances with average deposits up 12% year-on-year and higher asset-based fees on record AUC, given higher market levels globally.

由於全球市場水平較高，平均存款同比增長 12% 以及基於資產的費用創紀錄的 AUC 上升，推動了 10 億美元的證券服務收入增長 14%。

Finally, expense of $4.5 billion was up 8% year-on-year, driven by the relative timing of compensation accruals.

最後，45 億美元的支出同比增長 8%，這是由於應計薪酬的相對時間安排所致。

The comp-to-revenue ratio for the quarter was 27%; for the year, 28%, broadly in line with prior year.

本季度的收入比為 27%； 28%，與上年基本持平。

Moving to Commercial Banking on Page 8. It was another outstanding quarter for the Commercial Bank with record net income of $957 million, record revenue of $2.4 billion and an ROE of 18%.

轉到第 8 頁的商業銀行業務。對於商業銀行來說，這是另一個出色的季度，淨收入達到創紀錄的 9.57 億美元，收入達到創紀錄的 24 億美元，ROE 為 18%。

And for the year, net income and revenue were also records.

這一年，淨收入和收入也創下了記錄。

The business is firing on all cylinders and delivered an ROE of 17%.

該業務正在全力以赴，並交付了 17% 的 ROE。

For the quarter, revenue included a benefit of a little over $100 million associated with tax reform and in our Community Development Banking business.

本季度的收入包括與稅收改革和我們的社區發展銀行業務相關的 1 億多美元的收益。

Even without this benefit, revenue would still be a record, up 14% year-on-year, on higher NII from higher rates as well as deposit and loan growth across businesses.

即使沒有這種好處，收入仍將創歷史新高，同比增長 14%，原因是利率上升導致 NII 上升，以及各企業的存貸款增長。

IB revenue of $587 million was down 3% year-on-year but still a strong performance.

IB 收入為 5.87 億美元，同比下降 3%，但仍表現強勁。

For the full year, we saw record IB revenue of $2.3 billion, up 2%, with particular strength in middle market, which was up over 50%, compensating for a smaller number of large deals.

全年，我們看到了創紀錄的 23 億美元的 IB 收入，增長了 2%，尤其是在中間市場，增長了 50% 以上，彌補了少量大宗交易的影響。

The pipeline and momentum into the first quarter feels good.

進入第一季度的管道和勢頭感覺良好。

Expense of $912 million included an impairment charge, also, of a little over $100 million on certain leased equipment, which we expect to sell in the first half of this year.

9.12 億美元的費用包括對某些租賃設備的 1 億多美元的減值費用，我們預計這些設備將在今年上半年出售。

Excluding this, we saw expense growth of 9% as we executed on our technology and product investments.

不包括這一點，我們在技術和產品投資上的支出增長了 9%。

And this year, we added net 120 new bankers in the business and entered 6 new markets, giving us a presence in all top 50 MSAs.

今年，我們在業務中增加了 120 名新銀行家，並進入了 6 個新市場，使我們在所有前 50 名 MSA 中佔有一席之地。

Loan balances were up 7% year-on-year, 1% quarter-on-quarter.

貸款餘額同比增長 7%，環比增長 1%。

C&I loans were up 6% year-on-year, driven by continued strength in expansion markets and specialized industries.

在擴張市場和專業行業持續走強的推動下，工商業貸款同比增長 6%。

While sequential growth was up a more modest 1%, we're seeing decent deal flow, and pipelines are holding steady.

雖然環比增長僅增長了 1%，但我們看到了不錯的交易流，並且管道保持穩定。

Client sentiment continues to be strong, supported by corporate tax reform.

在企業稅制改革的支持下，客戶情緒持續強勁。

CRE saw growth of 9% year-on-year and 1% quarter-on-quarter, in line with the industry.

華潤創業同比增長 9%，環比增長 1%，與行業一致。

Multifamily lending continued to see tightened pricing on elevated competition.

由於競爭加劇，多戶家庭貸款的定價繼續收緊。

We remain appropriately focused on client selection, given where we are in the cycle and with particular caution around construction lending.

鑑於我們處於週期中的位置，並且對建築貸款特別謹慎，我們仍然適當地關注客戶選擇。

Finally, credit remains among the best we've seen.

最後，信用仍然是我們所見過的最好的。

This quarter, we saw a benefit of $62 million, largely driven by reserve releases in the Oil & Gas portfolio.

本季度，我們看到了 6200 萬美元的收益，這主要得益於石油和天然氣投資組合的儲備釋放。

And net charge-offs were 4 basis points.

淨沖銷為 4 個基點。

Leaving the Commercial Bank and moving on to Asset, Wealth Management on Page 9. Asset & Wealth Management reported net income of $654 million with a pretax margin of 30% and an ROE of 28%.

離開商業銀行，繼續第 9 頁的資產和財富管理。資產和財富管理報告的淨收入為 6.54 億美元，稅前利潤率為 30%，ROE 為 28%。

Revenue was a record $3.4 billion this quarter, driven by higher management fees on growth in AUM as well as higher NII on deposits and loans.

本季度收入達到創紀錄的 34 億美元，這主要得益於 AUM 增長帶來的管理費用增加以及存款和貸款的 NII 增加。

For the full year, net income and revenue were records with a pretax margin of 28% and an ROE of 25%.

全年，淨收入和收入均創紀錄，稅前利潤率為 28%，ROE 為 25%。

Expense for the quarter of $2.3 billion was up 8% year-on-year, driven by a combination of higher compensation as well as a gross up for external fees, which is offset in revenue.

本季度的支出為 23 億美元，同比增長 8%，原因是薪酬增加以及外部費用總額增加，這被收入抵消了。

For the quarter, we saw long-term net inflows of $30 billion with positive flows across all asset classes on continued strong long-term performance.

在本季度，我們看到了 300 億美元的長期淨流入，所有資產類別都出現了正流入，因為長期表現持續強勁。

For the full year, we had long-term net inflows of $68 billion, driven predominantly by fixed income, multiasset and alternatives.

全年，我們的長期淨流入為 680 億美元，主要由固定收益、多元資產和另類資產推動。

Record AUM of $2 trillion and overall client assets of $2.8 trillion were up 15% and 14%, respectively, year-on-year, reflecting higher market levels globally as well as net inflows.

創紀錄的 2 萬億美元的資產管理規模和 2.8 萬億美元的整體客戶資產同比分別增長 15% 和 14%，反映出全球市場水平的提高以及淨流入。

Deposits were down 10% year-on-year, down 2% sequentially, reflecting continued migration into investment-related assets, the vast majority of which we are retaining.

存款同比下降 10%，環比下降 2%，反映出繼續向投資相關資產轉移，我們保留了絕大多數資產。

And new client flows remain healthy.

新的客戶流量保持健康。

Finally, we had record loan balances, up 11% year-on-year; including mortgage, up 14%.

最後，我們的貸款餘額創歷史新高，同比增長 11%；包括抵押貸款，上漲 14%。

Moving to Page 10 and Corporate.

移至第 10 頁和企業。

Corporate reported a net loss of $2.3 billion, which includes $2.7 billion of the tax reform adjustment.

公司報告淨虧損 23 億美元，其中包括 27 億美元的稅改調整。

Treasury & CIO's results improved year-on-year primarily due to the benefit of higher rates.

財政部和首席信息官的業績同比有所改善，主要是由於更高的利率帶來的好處。

So finally turning to Page 11 and the outlook.

所以最後轉向第 11 頁和展望。

Before I get to specifics, remember, we do have Investor Day coming up in February, so we will be giving you a lot more guidance there.

在我詳細介紹之前，請記住，我們確實在 2 月份有投資者日，因此我們將在那里為您提供更多指導。

That leaves me with 2 structural things to talk about, the first, staying on the theme of tax reform.

這讓我有兩件結構性的事情要談，第一，停留在稅收改革的主題上。

And lower corporate tax rate in 2018 will have the effect of reducing the tax equivalent adjustment or gross ups in our managed revenues.

2018 年降低企業稅率將減少我們管理收入中的稅收等值調整或毛增長。

On a run rate basis, that reduction for the full year will be about $1.2 billion, and more than half of that is in the NII.

按運行率計算，全年減少約 12 億美元，其中一半以上用於 NII。

Secondly, effective January 1, 2018, a new revenue recognition accounting rule came into effect, which requires certain expenses to be grossed up that were previously recognized as contra expense -- contra revenue.

其次，自 2018 年 1 月 1 日起，一項新的收入確認會計規則生效，該規則要求將以前確認為對沖費用的某些費用進行合計 - 對沖收入。

We estimate, for the full year, the impact will increase both revenues and expenses for the firm by another $1.2 billion, the vast majority of which will be in Asset, Wealth Management with a small amount in the CIB.

我們估計，全年，該影響將使公司的收入和支出再增加 12 億美元，其中絕大多數將用於資產、財富管理，少量用於 CIB。

So for guidance, expect the first quarter NII will be down modestly quarter-on-quarter, reflecting a combination of the lower gross ups I mentioned as well as normal day count which offset the benefits of higher rates and growth.

因此，作為指導，預計第一季度 NII 將環比小幅下降，這反映了我提到的較低的毛增長以及正常的天數抵消了較高利率和增長的好處。

And we estimate the first quarter effective tax rate will be about 17%, reflecting seasonality of stock comp adjustments.

我們估計第一季度的有效稅率將在 17% 左右，反映了股票補償調整的季節性。

So to wrap up, the end of 2017 was constructive, characterized by strong equity markets; higher interest rates; good economic data globally; decent client activity; high levels of confidence; and, obviously, the enactment of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.

總結一下，2017 年底是建設性的，以強勁的股市為特徵；更高的利率；全球經濟數據良好；體面的客戶活動；高度自信；顯然，《減稅和就業法》的頒布。

Against that backdrop, our underlying financial performance in the fourth quarter and 2017 was strong, benefiting from diversification and scale and consistently delivering for our customers and communities, gaining share across our businesses.

在此背景下，我們在 2017 年第四季度和 2017 年的基本財務表現強勁，受益於多元化和規模化，並持續為我們的客戶和社區提供服務，在我們的業務中獲得份額。

Adjusting for significant items in the year, net income and EPS would have been clear records, driving a healthy 13% return on tangible common equity.

對當年的重大項目進行調整後，淨收入和每股收益將是明確的記錄，推動有形普通股的健康回報率為 13%。

We're excited about the landscape and the opportunities for our clients in 2018.

我們對 2018 年的前景和客戶機會感到興奮。

We will be there for them, and the company is poised to continue to perform.

我們將在那里為他們服務，公司已準備好繼續表現。

With that, operator, I will take questions.

有了這個，接線員，我會回答問題。

Erika Najarian of Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Erika Najarian。

So I do expect you to defer either the response to February 27th, Marianne, but I just had to ask the question.

所以我確實希望您將回复推遲到 2 月 27 日，Marianne，但我只需要問這個問題。

The revenue outlook seems to be quite strong for the banking industry generally in 2018, and many investors were wondering is the 55% overhead ratio a long-term target for JPMorgan, regardless of the revenue environment?

總體而言，2018 年銀行業的收入前景似乎相當強勁，許多投資者想知道，無論收入環境如何，55% 的間接費用比率是否是摩根大通的長期目標？

Or could that potentially be better over the short term as we get a boost in the economy from the Tax Act?

或者隨著我們從稅法中獲得經濟提振，這在短期內可能會更好嗎？

So I mean, you are right.

所以我的意思是，你是對的。

That's probably more of an Investor Day discussion.

這可能更像是投資者日的討論。

But what I would tell you is that when we have given that as our sort of medium-term guidance, in our simulation, we kind of imagined an environment that was more normalized in lots of ways.

但我要告訴你的是，當我們把它作為我們的中期指導時，在我們的模擬中，我們有點想像一個在很多方面更加規範化的環境。

So we anticipated higher -- more normal interest rates.

所以我們預期更高——更正常的利率。

We anticipated the continuation of somewhat benign credit.

我們預計信貸將繼續保持溫和。

And we anticipated continuing to invest in the businesses.

我們預計將繼續投資於這些業務。

And you've seen us do it in 2017.

你已經看到我們在 2017 年做到了。

And we would expect to do it and more in 2019 -- '18.

我們希望在 2019 年 - 18 年做到這一點，甚至更多。

So certainly, there could be years when we would be below it, and there have been years when we were above it, but I think it's still a decent place for us to be aiming for in the near term.

所以當然，我們可能會低於它，也有幾年我們會高於它，但我認為它仍然是我們在短期內瞄準的一個不錯的地方。

And my follow-up question to that is a lot of investors are excited about the prospect of stronger economic activity in 2018 leading to greater markets activity and greater lending activity.

我的後續問題是，很多投資者對 2018 年更強勁的經濟活動的前景感到興奮，這將導致更大的市場活動和更多的貸款活動。

And if you look back into the 1980s, at least for loan growth, loan growth actually stepped down in 1987.

如果你回顧 1980 年代，至少對於貸款增長而言，貸款增長實際上在 1987 年有所放緩。

And I'm wondering if you could share your insights on how you think those activity trends will shape up in 2018.

我想知道您是否可以分享您認為這些活動趨勢將如何在 2018 年形成的見解。

Yes.

是的。

So I know that everybody is eagerly awaiting there to be direct and noticeable impacts of tax reform, but we're only a couple of weeks into the year.

所以我知道每個人都在熱切地等待稅收改革產生直接和顯著的影響，但我們今年只有幾個星期。

And so our expectation, as I said before, just really stepping back, is that it will boost growth in the economy.

因此，正如我之前所說，我們的期望只是真正退後一步，即它將促進經濟增長。

People have different points of view.

人們有不同的觀點。

Our research team is saying by up to 30 basis points in each of the next 2 years.

我們的研究團隊表示，在接下來的 2 年中，每年最多增加 30 個基點。

But know it could be better than that.

但要知道它可能比這更好。

We do know that there will be puts and takes across our businesses, but in general, we would expect that the sort of certainty that people have been waiting for, coupled with the confidence that we know they've had, and the need for people to try and deliver growth to their shareholders, should mean that things that they were going to do become more compelling and they might be willing to do more.

我們確實知道在我們的業務中會有放貸，但總的來說，我們希望人們一直在等待的那種確定性，再加上我們知道他們已經擁有的信心，以及對人的需求試圖為他們的股東帶來增長，應該意味著他們將要做的事情變得更有說服力，他們可能願意做更多的事情。

So I think you'll see the capital market space potentially react more quickly, and I think loan growth may have a bit of a lag, but never say never.

所以我認為你會看到資本市場空間可能會更快地做出反應，我認為貸款增長可能會有一點滯後，但永遠不要說永遠。

So we just need to, I think, be a little patient to see some of it play out.

所以我們只需要，我認為，有點耐心，看看它的一些發揮。

But sentiment is strong.

但是情緒很強烈。

Cash positions will be improved.

現金狀況將得到改善。

Profitability will be higher.

盈利能力會更高。

Things that were rich before will be more fairly valued now.

以前富有的東西現在會被更公平地重視。

And so I think it should be all very constructive.

所以我認為這一切都應該是非常有建設性的。

And certainly, we would take the upside, and we support our clients.

當然，我們會順勢而為，我們會支持我們的客戶。

Our next question comes from Jim Mitchell of Buckingham Research.

我們的下一個問題來自白金漢研究所的 Jim Mitchell。

Maybe a question on NII, just I want to make sure I understand the moving parts.

也許是關於 NII 的問題，只是我想確保我了解活動部件。

So if I think about your guidance for the first quarter of down slightly.

因此，如果我考慮您對第一季度的指導意見略有下降。

You have 2 less days in the quarter.

您在本季度還有 2 天的時間。

That's maybe almost $300 million sequentially.

這可能是連續近 3 億美元。

And then half of the impact from the Tax Act in terms of tax equivalent adjustments is going to be felt in NIIs.

然後，在稅收等價調整方面，稅法的一半影響將在 NII 中體現。

That's sort of linear and equal, so that's another $150 million.

這是線性和平等的，所以又是 1.5 億美元。

So if I do the math, is it about a $400 million sort of apples-to-apples benefit from higher rates that you've seen?

因此，如果我算一下，您所看到的更高的利率是否會帶來大約 4 億美元的蘋果對蘋果的收益？

Is that the way to think about it?

是這樣想的嗎？

It's a good model with just one clarification.

這是一個很好的模型，只有一個說明。

So yes, a little more than half of the gross-up adjustment is NII.

所以是的，總調整的一半多一點是 NII。

Yes, it is broadly linear for the sake of argument.

是的，為了論證，它大致是線性的。

So $150 million is not a bad estimate.

因此，1.5 億美元並不是一個糟糕的估計。

It's actually more like $160 million, but pretty close.

它實際上更像是 1.6 億美元，但非常接近。

The day count is actually not worth $300 million.

天數實際上不值 3 億美元。

It's worth a little bit less than $200 million.

它的價值略低於 2 億美元。

So you've got a sort of headwind, for want of a better word, of call it $300 million and change.

所以你有一種逆風，因為沒有更好的詞，稱之為 3 億美元和改變。

And then we would have had a combination of the impact of the December hike, which obviously, each hike, the impact is less, some growth and other puts and takes.

然後我們會綜合考慮 12 月加息的影響，顯然，每次加息，影響都較小，一些增長和其他看跌期權。

So call it $350 million of a headwind offsetting growth and the rate hike.

所以稱其為 3.5 億美元的逆風抵消了增長和加息。

Right.

對。

And just to follow up on -- it seemed like deposit betas actually slowed this quarter.

並且只是跟進 - 本季度存款測試似乎實際上放緩了。

And what do -- you're expecting that to sort of reaccelerate this year.

怎麼辦 - 你預計今年會重新加速。

How do we think about, I guess, beyond 1Q and the benefits of rates?

我猜，我們如何考慮超越 1Q 和利率的好處？

So I would say about deposit betas, at this point, you really do have to think about it in a sort of bifurcated way.

所以我想說的是存款貝塔，在這一點上，你真的必須以一種分叉的方式來考慮它。

So firstly, I would say that the cumulative beta we've experienced, and I wouldn't say we've seen it slow down, but it's remained disciplined generally.

因此，首先，我會說我們所經歷的累積測試版，我不會說我們已經看到它放慢了速度，但它總體上保持自律。

What we've seen so far in the rate cycle is very similar to what we saw in previous rate cycles.

到目前為止，我們在利率週期中看到的情況與我們在之前的利率週期中看到的情況非常相似。

So it's not like we learned stunning new news from which we can extrapolate and make changes to our expectations.

所以這不像我們學到了驚人的新消息，我們可以從中推斷和改變我們的期望。

So we have no real change in the long-term expectations to reprice.

因此，我們對重新定價的長期預期沒有真正的變化。

And it really is at this point bifurcated.

它在這一點上確實是分叉的。

So retail, checking and core savings, there've been little to no movement in the industry.

所以零售、支票和核心儲蓄，這個行業幾乎沒有動靜。

But again, given the absolute level of rates, that would be in line with our expectations.

但同樣，考慮到利率的絕對水平，這符合我們的預期。

And on the wholesale space, we're definitely in reprice territory.

在批發領域，我們絕對處於重新定價領域。

It is accelerating with every hike, and it's different across the spectrum.

每次徒步旅行都在加速，而且在整個範圍內都是不同的。

So obviously, more significant in the sort of TS, Securities Services space.

顯然，在 TS 證券服務領域更為重要。

So -- but my expectation, just given where we are in the absolute level of rates is that, on the retail space, we would still see a lot of discipline in the market in 2018.

所以——但我的預期是，鑑於我們在絕對利率水平上所處的位置，在零售領域，我們仍然會在 2018 年看到市場有很多紀律。

But ultimately, we haven't changed our expectations that whatever that time line looks like, we're going to get to an overall reprice of above 50%, but we'll have to see.

但最終，我們並沒有改變我們的預期，即無論該時間線是什麼樣子，我們都將達到 50% 以上的整體重新定價，但我們必須拭目以待。

Our next question is from Betsy Graseck of Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。

Sorry, I was on mute.

對不起，我靜音了。

It feels like we have a once-in-a-lifetime -- or at least in my lifetime benefit to earnings with this tax change.

感覺就像我們一生中只有一次 - 或者至少在我一生中受益於這種稅收變化的收入。

And we've got a lot of PMs asking the question how are managements going to use that.

我們有很多 PM 詢問管理層將如何使用它的問題。

I saw your comment in the deck that competitive over time, compete away, blah, blah, blah.

我在牌組中看到你的評論隨著時間的推移競爭激烈，競爭，等等，等等，等等。

But I really wonder if you could help give us some insight as to how, at a management level, you're thinking about strategically using this benefit that you're getting in the various buckets of reinvest in tech, reinvest in people, reinvest in clients.

但我真的很想知道您是否可以幫助我們了解在管理層面如何從戰略上考慮利用您在技術再投資、對人員再投資、再投資的各個方面獲得的收益客戶。

Do you feel like it's equal across those?

你覺得在這些方面是平等的嗎？

Or is there a skew that you're thinking about to take advantage of this?

或者您是否正在考慮利用這一點？

Because how managements use this benefit is going to be critical for stock performance over the next 2 to 3 years.

因為管理層如何利用這一優勢對未來 2 到 3 年的股票表現至關重要。

Yes.

是的。

So I mean, I'll give you a framework to think about it, if it's helpful.

所以我的意思是，我會給你一個框架來思考它，如果它有幫助的話。

And you can certainly ask a follow-up question.

您當然可以提出後續問題。

But you are very familiar with the way that we think about sort of our strategy over time and our investment strategy in particular.

但是您非常熟悉我們對長期戰略的思考方式，尤其是我們的投資戰略。

And investing in our businesses for growth and profitability has always been first and foremost in our minds.

投資於我們的業務以實現增長和盈利一直是我們心中的首要任務。

And to be honest, we've talked to you before about the fact that we don't constrain ourselves because we have budgetary targets on those activities if we think we can execute well and we see great opportunity.

老實說，我們之前曾與您談過這樣一個事實，即我們不會限制自己，因為如果我們認為我們可以很好地執行並且我們看到了巨大的機會，我們會對這些活動制定預算目標。

So expect that the first thing that we would do is to continue to lean into the investment opportunities we have writ large.

因此，期望我們要做的第一件事就是繼續利用我們擁有的大量投資機會。

So that's bankers.

這就是銀行家。

That's offices.

那是辦公室。

That's global expansion to the degree that that's on the cards.

這是全球擴張的程度，這是在卡片上。

It's digital capabilities, [copayments] capabilities.

它是數字能力，[共付]能力。

It's across all of our businesses.

它涉及我們所有的業務。

And we've been working even before tax reform on identifying where those opportunities are, and we want to lean into that.

甚至在稅制改革之前，我們就一直在努力確定這些機會在哪裡，我們希望對此有所了解。

We will also -- and Jamie said it earlier, we are really pleased that there are some immediate responses for employee benefits.

我們還將 - 傑米早些時候說過，我們真的很高興對員工福利有一些直接的回應。

And we will be doing that plus more across our stakeholder constituents.

我們將在我們的利益相關者中做更多的事情。

And there will be more to come on that over the next few weeks.

在接下來的幾周里，還會有更多的事情發生。

And we want to focus on that being, like, comprehensive and sustainable.

我們希望專注於這一點，例如，全面和可持續的。

So we're really trying to be thoughtful about the things that will matter to our employees and to our customers.

因此，我們真的在努力考慮對我們的員工和客戶來說很重要的事情。

And then to the degree that we end up still with earnings that were otherwise above plan, then our normal capital strategy comes into play.

然後，如果我們最終的收益仍然超出計劃，那麼我們的正常資本策略就會發揮作用。

We've been clear.

我們已經很清楚了。

We think that we are adequately capitalized, that we should expect to have the capital ratio move down slowly over time.

我們認為我們的資本充足，我們應該預期資本比率會隨著時間的推移緩慢下降。

And our strategy on potentially continuing to see dividend increases and having repurchase programs that allow us to achieve our target ratio, that hasn't changed.

我們關於可能繼續增加股息並製定回購計劃以使我們能夠實現目標比率的策略沒有改變。

It just might be a bigger dollar number.

它可能只是一個更大的美元數字。

Our next question comes from Ken Usdin of Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Ken Usdin。

Just to move to, I guess, a business question.

我猜只是為了轉移到一個商業問題。

A couple of things just on the Card business.

一些事情只是關於卡業務。

Just looked like credit continues to be pretty good.

只是看起來信用仍然很好。

You did build the reserve for growth, as you mentioned.

正如您所提到的，您確實建立了增長儲備。

But noticed that the Card revenue rate was also still a little bit down.

但注意到卡的收入率也還是有一點下降。

Can you just talk a little bit about your outlook for that Card business as you look forward?

您能談談您對信用卡業務的展望嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So I'll just deal with the Card revenue rate real quick because I think we sort of gave a little bit of this in the third quarter, that given the Sapphire Reserve product and given the extraordinary success we had with that in the fourth quarter of 2016, there is an annual travel credit renewal that took place in the fourth quarter, which we already told you, you would expect to see the revenue rate go down.

因此，我將快速處理卡收入率，因為我認為我們在第三季度提供了一些這樣的東西，考慮到 Sapphire Reserve 產品以及我們在第四季度取得的非凡成功2016 年，第四季度進行了年度旅行信用更新，我們已經告訴過您，您預計收入率會下降。

It was contemplated, and which is why our full year revenue rate of 10.6% was in line with our guidance.

考慮到這一點，這就是為什麼我們 10.6% 的全年收入率符合我們的指導。

And as we lap the acquisition costs and reward costs associated with acquiring all of those Sapphire Reserve customers, and for that matter, our other new products, we're going to see that revenue rate get to the 11.25%, if not in the first quarter, in the first half of next year and stabilize out at or above that level.

當我們計算與獲得所有這些 Sapphire Reserve 客戶以及我們的其他新產品相關的收購成本和獎勵成本時，我們將看到收入率達到 11.25%，如果不是第一次季度，明年上半年並穩定在該水平或以上。

Okay.

好的。

And then -- just that's great to hear that's intact.

然後 - 聽到它完好無損真是太好了。

And then just consumer credit, broadly speaking, Auto has continued to look a little bit better and Card's still within -- or expectation.

然後只是消費信貸，從廣義上講，汽車繼續看起來好一點，卡仍然在 - 或預期之內。

So a lot of the focus on tax has obviously been on the potential for commercial lending to potentially pick up.

因此，很多對稅收的關注顯然都集中在商業貸款可能回升的潛力上。

How are you guys just thinking about how the consumer behaves and what that means for both consumer loan growth and consumer credit?

你們是如何思考消費者的行為方式以及這對消費貸款增長和消費信貸意味著什麼？

Yes.

是的。

So again, there are -- it's nuanced, so what I expect though, the first question generally that we're getting is the impact on the housing market given certain specific changes in the tax code.

再說一遍，它是微妙的，所以我期望的是，我們得到的第一個問題通常是考慮到稅法的某些特定變化對房地產市場的影響。

I would say that overall, net-net, we would expect there to be not a significant impact on the housing market and demand nationally, although it could differ by state.

我想說，總體而言，淨淨值，我們預計不會對全國的房地產市場和需求產生重大影響，儘管可能因州而異。

So we feel like that's going to hold up nicely.

所以我們覺得這會很好地維持下去。

And then you're right.

然後你是對的。

Whether you're talking about consumers or whether you're talking about small businesses, think about the small business environment, this was quite positive for them, so they're going to see higher profitability, higher free cash flow, and to all intents and purposes, the equivalent of an upgrade.

無論你是在談論消費者還是在談論小企業，想想小企業的環境，這對他們來說是非常積極的，所以他們將看到更高的盈利能力、更高的自由現金流，並且從所有意圖來看和用途，相當於升級。

So we would be hopeful that, much like the commercial space, that could be the catalyst to see them spend money and hire.

因此，我們希望，就像商業空間一樣，這可能成為看到他們花錢和僱傭的催化劑。

And we'll be focusing on that as we think about programs to help.

當我們考慮提供幫助的計劃時，我們將專注於這一點。

So I think in general, it's going to mean that the already very good credit trends we're seeing will be good for longer.

所以我認為總的來說，這意味著我們看到的已經非常好的信貸趨勢將會持續更長時間。

Our next question comes from Glenn Schorr of Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Glenn Schorr。

So first question on fixed income.

所以第一個關於固定收益的問題。

And I guess the question is if not now, when.

我想問題是如果不是現在，什麼時候。

I mean, the industry's gone down, had this multi-multiyear degraded in revenues for lots of structural and cyclical reasons.

我的意思是，由於許多結構性和周期性的原因，這個行業已經走下坡路了，多年來的收入下降了。

We now have -- we're off QE in the U.S. We're raising rates in the U.S. Europe's doing better.

我們現在有——我們在美國退出量化寬鬆政策。我們在美國加息。歐洲做得更好。

They are still on QE and have low to negative rates, but we [might] get some changes there.

他們仍在量化寬鬆，利率低至負，但我們[可能]會在那裡得到一些改變。

Can you talk about your best guesses in terms of the backdrop for this environment for such an important revenue item?

對於如此重要的收入項目，您能談談您對這種環境背景的最佳猜測嗎？

Sure.

當然。

So Glenn, I want to -- because I feel like in 2017, we spent so much time talking about year-over-year declines in comparable periods, it's helpful to, I think, step back and remember the full performance for 2017 for fixed income and for equities and for markets in total.

所以格倫，我想 - 因為我覺得在 2017 年，我們花了很多時間談論可比時期的同比下降，我認為，退後一步並記住 2017 年固定資產的完整表現很有幫助收入、股票和市場的總和。

And so acknowledging that the first quarter was quite strong, if you look at the last 3 quarters, we were talking about reasonably quiet environment, low volatility, historically tight spreads.

並且承認第一季度相當強勁，如果你看看最後三個季度，我們談論的是相當安靜的環境，低波動性，歷史上的低點差。

And yet, those businesses individually and together delivered meaningfully above the cost of capital for us.

然而，這些業務單獨和共同為我們帶來了高於資本成本的有意義的成果。

So maybe not at the sort of outperformance level of 2016 but really good performance.

所以也許不是在 2016 年的那種表現水平，但表現真的很好。

So discipline, scale, optionality, those are the ways we think about fixed income business.

因此，紀律、規模、選擇性，這些是我們對固定收益業務的看法。

And so although I don't -- I'm not going to -- I don't have a crystal ball, I can't tell you when there will be a catalyst for change.

因此，雖然我沒有——我不會——我沒有水晶球，但我無法告訴你什麼時候會有改變的催化劑。

Fixed income is a little on the countercyclical side.

固定收益有點逆週期。

There will be change.

會有變化。

And we're positioned to continue to be able to grow with our clients.

我們的定位是繼續能夠與我們的客戶一起成長。

So like our businesses are doing well.

所以就像我們的業務做得很好一樣。

And can't tell you when things will become more volatile.

並且不能告訴你什麼時候事情會變得更加不穩定。

And obviously, that's always an emotional discussion.

顯然，這總是一個情緒化的討論。

But it will happen.

但它會發生。

And when it does, we'll be there to serve our clients and to [be there for] them.

當它發生時，我們將在那里為我們的客戶服務並[在那裡]他們。

I appreciate that.

我很感激。

Follow-up is on Steinhoff.

後續行動在 Steinhoff 上。

And I know the -- a, you can't predict fraud.

而且我知道-a，您無法預測欺詐行為。

But I'm just curious on that as a business in general, and lots of other banks were involved.

但作為一家企業，我只是對此感到好奇，而且還有很多其他銀行也參與其中。

But how many other similar types of books are there?

但是還有多少其他類似類型的書呢？

And can you talk to the nature of those relationships?

你能談談這些關係的本質嗎？

Because hindsight's 20/20, you're like, wow, that's a lot of leverage to give somebody on a highly active stock.

因為事後看來是 20/20，所以你會覺得，哇，這對於讓某人擁有高度活躍的股票有很大的影響力。

But it's usually just the customer flow, simple in-and-out facilitation business.

但通常只是客流，簡單的進出便利業務。

So I wonder if you could just talk about it a little bit more.

所以我想知道你是否可以多談一點。

Yes.

是的。

I mean, this will garner attention because of the sort of sudden and significant decline.

我的意思是，這會因為突然而顯著的下降而引起關注。

But -- and it is by far and away the largest loss in that business that we've seen since the crisis.

但是 - 這是自危機以來我們所看到的該業務中最大的損失。

And know it will happen from time to time, maybe not this significantly or this suddenly.

並且知道它會不時發生，也許不會如此顯著或如此突然。

And remember that because we've got that in fair value, we brought that down, down.

請記住，因為我們有公允價值，所以我們把它壓低了，壓低了。

So that's not a reserve, that's a mark to market on a publicly traded equity at this point that is significantly down.

因此，這不是儲備，而是在此時顯著下跌的公開交易股票的市場標記。

And so I would say while we're obviously disappointed with the outcome, it's the business we're in.

所以我想說，雖然我們顯然對結果感到失望，但這是我們所從事的業務。

It's a large and diversified business, that even after this loss, it's still very profitable.

這是一項龐大且多元化的業務，即使在虧損之後，它仍然非常有利可圖。

So it's noteworthy because of its size, its rapidity and it's significant.

之所以值得注意，是因為它的規模、速度和意義重大。

But it's a profitable business.

但這是一項有利可圖的業務。

And without sort of laboring the point, obviously, we go through talking about the potential for there to be [rifles] and sudden-risk situations.

顯然，我們不費吹灰之力地討論了[步槍]和突發風險情況的可能性。

And I've talked about that in our governance processes.

我已經在我們的治理流程中談到了這一點。

And sometime, that will happen.

有時，這會發生。

Our next question comes from Mike Mayo of wells Fargo Security.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wells Fargo Security 的 Mike Mayo。

I just wanted to follow up on the tax question.

我只是想跟進稅收問題。

Jamie says on Page 1 of the release that you'll have an accelerated spend for those tax benefits for employees, customers, communities.

Jamie 在新聞稿的第 1 頁上說，您將加快為員工、客戶和社區提供的稅收優惠支出。

I know you kind of answered that, but so how much of that benefit -- I guess you paid $11 billion in taxes last year, and that might have been under $7 billion with the lower rate.

我知道你回答了這個問題，但那有多少好處——我猜你去年繳納了 110 億美元的稅款，如果稅率較低，那可能低於 70 億美元。

So if we assume a $4 billion tax benefit, if that's correct, how much of that would be passed on to the employees, customers and communities versus hitting the bottom line?

因此，如果我們假設有 40 億美元的稅收優惠，如果這是正確的，那麼其中有多少會轉嫁給員工、客戶和社區，而不是達到底線？

And then the philosophical question, if Jamie's there, if he could answer after you, should that be crucial for stock performance, how much you allow to fall to the bottom line?

然後是哲學問題，如果傑米在那裡，如果他能在你之後回答，這對股票表現是否至關重要，你允許跌到多少底線？

Yes.

是的。

So look, I'm not going to give you, like, quantification, but you're not meaningfully wrong about the sort of assessment you made, which it is a big, significant positive and much of it will fall to our bottom line in 2018 and beyond.

所以看，我不會給你量化，但你對你所做的評估並沒有明顯的錯誤，這是一個很大的、重要的積極因素，其中大部分將落入我們的底線2018 年及以後。

And time is an important part to how this plays out.

時間是如何發揮作用的重要組成部分。

So we want to do really constructive, thoughtful things for all of our constituents, but it won't be the significant portion of that.

所以我們想為我們所有的選民做真正有建設性的、深思熟慮的事情，但這不會是其中的重要部分。

Yes.

是的。

I would just say that we have -- take the $3.5 billion benefit next year.

我只想說我們已經獲得了明年 35 億美元的收益。

The 2 major -- you should in put back of your mind uncertainties: One is the code has to be actually written.

2個主要的——你應該把不確定性放在腦後：一個是代碼必須實際編寫。

And so there'd be a lot of noise going down the road about what that actually means for various industries and stuff like that.

因此，關於這對各種行業和類似事物的實際意義，將會有很多噪音。

And the second area, as spoken by us [extensively,] is competition.

第二個領域，正如我們[廣泛地]所說的那樣，是競爭。

Some of it -- some will be competed away.

其中一些——一些將被競爭。

So I'm going to -- I'm only telling you because you've got to put it in your mind.

所以我要 - 我只是告訴你，因為你必須把它放在你的腦海裡。

Don't get so exuberant that everything, everywhere falls to the bottom line.

不要變得如此旺盛，以至於所有的一切都落到了底線。

The second is on our investment.

第二個是關於我們的投資。

Marianne's already spoke we already are fairly aggressively investing for our future.

瑪麗安已經說過，我們已經相當積極地為我們的未來進行投資。

And in some places, like pushing this trade, we can't -- we can only go so fast in hiring new bankers and doing some things, and we may accelerate some of that.

在某些地方，比如推動這項交易，我們不能——我們只能在招聘新銀行家和做一些事情方面走得這麼快，而且我們可能會加快其中的一些。

At Investor Day, will be quite clear if we change how we look at that kind of thing.

在投資者日，如果我們改變對這類事情的看法，那將是非常清楚的。

And the other one is what are we going to do special to help the United States of America as a result of tax change?

另一個問題是，由於稅收變化，我們將採取哪些特別措施來幫助美利堅合眾國？

And we think we should.

我們認為我們應該這樣做。

We think it's very good other companies have done it.

我們認為其他公司已經做到了這一點非常好。

We think it's time that all of America shared broadly.

我們認為現在是全美國廣泛分享的時候了。

And we're going to have things that we think are good for some employees.

我們將擁有我們認為對某些員工有益的東西。

But think of also sustainable growth for communities around the world.

但也要考慮世界各地社區的可持續增長。

And so we're going to give you, in the next couple of weeks, some very thoughtful things that we're going to do.

因此，我們將在接下來的幾週內為您提供一些我們將要做的非常深思熟慮的事情。

And it may very well bite into some of that $3.5 billion, and so be it.

它很可能會從這 35 億美元中分一杯羹，就這樣吧。

That's what we're supposed to do.

這就是我們應該做的。

We're a bank.

我們是銀行。

We're supposed to help support and grow communities.

我們應該幫助支持和發展社區。

And it will enhance our growth in the future, too, by the way.

順便說一句，這也將促進我們未來的增長。

So it isn't, like, a giveaway, it's kind of a thoughtful flow as to how we should use some of this.

所以它不是，就像，贈品，它是一種關於我們應該如何使用其中一些的深思熟慮的流程。

And I do want to just -- like, there are 2 other things, just after what Jamie said, which is if some of this is competed away over time and gets to lower cost of credit and lower cost of borrowing and improved pricing to our customers and allows them to grow their businesses and spend more strongly, there is a feedback loop.

而且我確實想 - 就像，在 Jamie 所說的之後還有另外兩件事，那就是如果其中一些隨著時間的推移而競爭消失，並降低信貸成本和借貸成本，並提高我們的定價客戶並允許他們發展業務並增加支出，因此存在反饋循環。

Similarly, if at the end of the day, it results in some higher dividends or repurchases, that also recycles back into the economy.

同樣，如果在一天結束時，它會導致一些更高的股息或回購，這也會循環回到經濟中。

So like, we're very optimistic for the performance of this company, which is extraordinarily client-centric.

因此，我們對這家以客戶為中心的公司的表現非常樂觀。

So anything that's good for the economy and our clients will continue to drive long-term profitability for the company.

因此，任何對經濟和我們的客戶有利的事情都將繼續推動公司的長期盈利。

That would be number one.

那將是第一名。

And number two, not to be defensive, but you guys will appreciate this more than anyone almost, is you can do your own math.

第二，不要防守，但你們幾乎比任何人都更欣賞這一點，你可以自己做數學。

But if you add up the cost of controlled market structure reform, capital and liquidity, much of which we're entirely supportive of.

但是，如果將受控市場結構改革、資本和流動性的成本加起來，我們完全支持其中的大部分。

But if you add up the impact that had on our returns over the last 5 to 10 years, I mean it, in many ways, dwarfs this.

但如果你把過去 5 到 10 年對我們回報的影響加起來，我的意思是，在很多方面，這都相形見絀。

So there will be an element of this that goes back into making sure that the banking system is probably covering the cost of equity, and it should.

因此，其中有一個因素可以追溯到確保銀行系統可能涵蓋股權成本，而且應該如此。

One follow-up on that feedback loop.

對該反饋循環的一項後續行動。

So you, Marianne or Jamie, a year from now, do you think that the tax code or other factors will result in an increase in capital markets activity, increase in corporate lending and increase in CapEx, which we've been waiting for all decade?

所以，瑪麗安或傑米，一年後，你是否認為稅法或其他因素會導致資本市場活動增加、企業貸款增加和資本支出增加，而這正是我們十年來一直在等待的?

Yes.

是的。

Again, I think it's really important to note.

再說一次，我認為這真的很重要。

People focus very much on what happens tomorrow because of tax reform.

由於稅制改革，人們非常關註明天會發生什麼。

I think it's a very good thing.

我認為這是一件非常好的事情。

You've seen it with corporations, you've seen it with sentiment, you've seen it with people's plans and things like that.

你已經看到了公司，你看到了情緒，你看到了人們的計劃和類似的事情。

I think it's very good.

我認為這非常好。

I think the far more important thing is that 20 years ago, our corporate federal estate rate was 40%, the rest of the world was 40%.

我認為更重要的是，20 年前，我們公司的聯邦遺產稅率是 40%，而世界其他地區是 40%。

Over 20 years, they came down to 20% and we stayed at 40%.

20 多年來，它們下降到 20%，而我們則保持在 40%。

Over that time, it's driven brains, capital, you see the reinvested money overseas.

在那段時間裡，它驅動了大腦、資本，你看到了海外再投資的錢。

One of the accounting firms did a study that 5,000 companies that would have been headquartered here are either headquartered overseas or owned by foreign companies, which I'm not against, it's a huge number.

一家會計師事務所做了一項研究，5000 家本應將總部設在這裡的公司要么總部設在海外，要么歸外國公司所有，我不反對，這是一個巨大的數字。

It's the cumulative effect of retained capital and increasing competitive American companies that will drive jobs and wages in the long run.

從長遠來看，留存資本和提高競爭力的美國公司的累積效應將推動就業和工資增長。

I have absolutely no question that we will be far better off year after year after year having done this.

我絕對沒有疑問，我們會年復一年地做得更好。

And it's just impossible to tell exactly what it means this month or this quarter or something like that.

並且無法準確說出本月或本季度或類似的含義。

So we're going to be watching, just like you, and waiting just like you.

因此，我們將像您一樣觀看，並像您一樣等待。

But I don't -- I hate guessing about the effect, like, on capital markets.

但我不——我討厭猜測它對資本市場的影響。

I don't know.

我不知道。

The fact is capital -- we look at capital -- we have fabulous people in sales and trade, fabulous research, great technology capability.

事實就是資本——我們看資本——我們在銷售和貿易方面擁有出色的人才，出色的研究，強大的技術能力。

In the last 5 years, we dealt with Dodd-Frank, MiFID, all these rules and regulations, SEFs, what are the other ones called in Europe -- and we've done okay.

在過去的 5 年中，我們處理了 Dodd-Frank、MiFID、所有這些規則和規定、SEF 以及其他在歐洲稱為什麼的——我們做得還不錯。

I look at it as all a big positive.

我認為這是一個很大的積極因素。

And we'll still be there buying and selling securities for our clients, issuing securities.

我們仍然會為我們的客戶買賣證券，發行證券。

And yes.

是的。

I think if we're right about it in improving American competitive growth in the global economy, it will drive capital markets activity.

我認為，如果我們在改善美國在全球經濟中的競爭性增長方面是正確的，它將推動資本市場活動。

Let's just wait and see.

讓我們拭目以待。

Our next question comes from John McDonald of Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的約翰麥克唐納。

Apologies if this was asked.

抱歉，如果被問到這個問題。

I got cut off for a second.

我被打斷了一秒鐘。

Marianne, was wondering about charge-offs and credit.

瑪麗安，想知道沖銷和信用。

Things looked good this quarter, for the full year, it came in line with your kind of $5 billion charge-off outlook.

本季度的情況看起來不錯，全年來看，它符合你那種 50 億美元的沖銷前景。

Was wondering how you're thinking about the credit environment heading into this year.

想知道您如何看待今年的信貸環境。

And if the environment remains strong, do you still have some seasoning that might put some upward pressure on charge-offs, even in a good environment?

如果環境依然強勁，即使在良好的環境下，您是否還有一些調味料可能會對沖銷產生一些上行壓力？

Yes, so I would say if you look across the consumer spectrum, x Card, the credit performance is, like, really, really good and should continue to be really good in 2018.

是的，所以我想說，如果你看一下 x Card 的整個消費範圍，它的信用表現非常非常好，並且在 2018 年應該會繼續非常好。

So 2018 feels like very strong credit performance in Consumer.

因此，2018 年消費者的信貸表現非常強勁。

In Card, we said at Investor Day that we would expect to continue to see charge-off rates go up and we're growing loans.

在 Card 方面，我們在投資者日表示，我們預計將繼續看到沖銷率上升，並且我們正在增加貸款。

So a combination of those things will mean we'll have higher charge-offs and some reserve builds.

因此，這些事情的結合將意味著我們將有更高的沖銷和一些儲備建設。

I will tell you that we're not seeing anything that isn't in line with our expectation.

我會告訴你，我們沒有看到任何不符合我們預期的東西。

So this is not normalization deterioration.

所以這不是歸一化惡化。

This is seasoning and maturation of the newer vintages and growth.

這是新年份和增長的調味和成熟。

And so if I sort of sent you back to what we talked about earlier in the year, it's probably closer to 3.25% but in line with our expectations.

因此，如果我讓你回到我們今年早些時候談到的內容，它可能接近 3.25%，但符合我們的預期。

So we're expecting very much more of the same in the consumer space.

因此，我們期望在消費領域會有更多相同的情況。

And in the wholesale space, credit is really, really good.

在批發領域，信用非常非常好。

And some of the places where we had been watching for there to potentially be stress, fundamentals are improved.

我們一直在觀察可能存在壓力的一些地方，基本面得到了改善。

And we continue to obviously watch retail and to be cautious, given where we are on certain parts of real estate banking.

鑑於我們在房地產銀行業務的某些部分所處的位置，我們顯然會繼續關注零售業並保持謹慎。

But we're not seeing any fragility right now in our outlook.

但我們目前的前景沒有看到任何脆弱性。

Okay.

好的。

And then just a follow-up on Card.

然後只是對 Card 的跟進。

You've had some good balance growth.

你有一些很好的平衡增長。

Are you seeing any change in propensity to revolve from your customers?

您是否看到客戶的旋轉傾向有任何變化？

Or is your balance growth coming more from new customers?

還是您的餘額增長更多來自新客戶？

Or is there any increase in the kind of revolve rate?

或者旋轉速度有沒有增加？

So we actually had been on a pretty significant strategic drive to make sure that we had a deeply, deeply engaged customer base.

因此，我們實際上一直在進行一項非常重要的戰略驅動，以確保我們擁有一個深度參與的客戶群。

If you go back precrisis and look at the industry, there was also a balance [focus] and less engaged customers.

如果你回到危機前，看看這個行業，也會有一個平衡[焦點]和較少參與的客戶。

So we worked really hard over the course of the last many years to drive engagement, which is why you can see that we have a larger share of spend than we do of outstandings, but we've grown both.

因此，在過去的許多年裡，我們非常努力地推動參與度，這就是為什麼你可以看到我們的支出份額比我們的傑出貢獻者的份額更大，但我們兩者都增長了。

So we are getting balances from new customers.

所以我們從新客戶那裡得到餘額。

We are working on making sure that the right customers are revolving.

我們正在努力確保正確的客戶在循環。

And we're making progress.

我們正在取得進展。

So year-on-year, we've gained share in both, and we'll continue to focus on revolve.

因此，與去年同期相比，我們在兩者中都獲得了份額，我們將繼續專注於旋轉。

Our next question comes from Steven Chubak of Nomura Instinet.

我們的下一個問題來自 Nomura Instinet 的 Steven Chubak。

Marianne, had a question on the tax guidance that you guys have given.

瑪麗安，對你們提供的稅務指導有疑問。

The Slide 2 disclosure's really helpful, but I really wanted to dig into the comment on the BEAT provision.

Slide 2 的披露確實很有幫助，但我真的很想深入了解關於 BEAT 條款的評論。

You noted that the ultimate impact for your business shouldn't be material, and at the same time, the guidance from some of your foreign bank competitors, suffice it to say, has been much more measured.

您指出，對您的業務的最終影響不應該是重大的，同時，您的一些外國銀行競爭對手的指導，我只想說，已經更加衡量了。

And I'm wondering if the impact's not that material for you guys but weighs more heavily on the peer set.

我想知道這種影響對你們來說是否不是那麼重要，但對同行的影響更大。

Do you actually see a market share consolidation opportunity emerging potentially with -- and in particular within the repo and sec lending sides?

您是否真的看到了潛在的市場份額整合機會——尤其是在回購和證券借貸方面？

Yes.

是的。

So I mean, obviously, the impact is differently situated for the foreign banking set.

所以我的意思是，顯然，對外國銀行業務的影響是不同的。

And I know that there -- as Jamie said, there is still a lot of work to be done in terms of implementation and finalization of the actual code itself.

我知道，正如 Jamie 所說，在實際代碼本身的實施和最終確定方面還有很多工作要做。

So I don't want to guess on how all that will play out.

所以我不想猜測這一切會如何發展。

I certainly don't want to guess about the second-order impact of potential consolidation.

我當然不想猜測潛在整合的二級影響。

Right.

對。

Fair enough.

很公平。

Well, maybe just try one more on tax specifically relating to CCAR.

好吧，也許再試一次與 CCAR 相關的稅收。

I'm assuming that the test parameters for '18 are broadly consistent with last year, which I think is most people's general expectation.

我假設 18 年的測試參數與去年大體一致，我認為這是大多數人的普遍預期。

You have the lower starting capital ratio from the tax hit.

由於稅收影響，您的起始資本比率較低。

Your peers will have the same thing.

你的同齡人也會有同樣的事情。

But within the new tax law, there's also a somewhat complicated element where it eliminates the ability to carry back NOLs against prior period income, which could impact your stressed ratios.

但在新稅法中，還有一個有些複雜的因素，它消除了將 NOL 與前期收入結轉的能力，這可能會影響您的壓力比率。

And I'm wondering, does that at all inform your outlook for the upcoming test?

我想知道，這是否會告訴你對即將到來的測試的展望？

And do you anticipate capital return capacity being more constrained just in light of some of those changes?

您是否預計僅鑑於其中一些變化，資本回報能力會受到更多限制？

Okay.

好的。

That was a lot.

那是很多。

So if you assume that the 2018 structure is much like 2017 with a nice, healthy caveat that DTAs, DTLs and the impact of them can be volatile based on the scenario, so with that caveat, I would tell you that not carrying back NOLs has a very particular interplay with foreign tax credits, which means it's not really going to affect us in a meaningful way.

因此，如果您假設 2018 年的結構與 2017 年非常相似，但有一個很好的、健康的警告，即 DTA、DTL 及其影響可能會根據場景而波動，所以有了這個警告，我會告訴您，不帶回 NOL 有與外國稅收抵免的非常特殊的相互作用，這意味著它不會真正以有意義的方式影響我們。

There are 2 things that would change, but they also offset.

有兩件事會改變，但它們也會抵消。

So the 2 things that would change is your absolute level of losses would be higher as the tax rate is lower, but -- so that would be a negative.

因此，會改變的兩件事是，隨著稅率的降低，您的絕對損失水平會更高，但是 - 所以這將是負面的。

But against that, your NOL carryforward would be lower and that's the capital to deduct.

但與此相反，您的 NOL 結轉會更低，這是要扣除的資本。

So in the law of very big numbers would help warnings, plus or minus, at our low point, we think not a significant impact.

因此，在非常大的數字定律中，在我們的低點，無論正負，我們認為不會產生重大影響。

And then if you were to take a look at our starting point capital, I'd just make 2 comments.

然後，如果您要看看我們的起點資本，我只會發表 2 條評論。

The first is, obviously, given all of the conversations we've just had, there is also the strong possibility that we will have higher earnings in the first half of the year and be able to accrete back portions, if not all of that, capital.

首先，顯然，鑑於我們剛剛進行的所有對話，我們很有可能在今年上半年獲得更高的收益並能夠增加部分，如果不是全部的話，首都。

And secondly, for what it's worth, our actual spot capital ratios were higher than our CCAR outlook was.

其次，就其價值而言，我們的實際現貨資本比率高於我們的 CCAR 展望。

So both from a starting point and tax effective, I feel okay, but that's a really complicated question, and we need to, like, really work through it.

因此，無論是從起點還是稅收效率，我都覺得還可以，但這是一個非常複雜的問題，我們需要真正解決它。

And there's a new sheriff in town.

鎮上來了一位新警長。

And they're going to be looking at the whole picture.

他們將著眼於全局。

I think it's probably more important than this one item.

我認為它可能比這一項更重要。

Our next question is from Gerard Cassidy of RBC.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Gerard Cassidy。

Marianne, assuming the economy in 2018/'19 accelerates due to this tax reform, I think it may imply that we would have higher interest rates and possibly a steeper yield curve.

瑪麗安，假設 2018/'19 年的經濟由於這項稅收改革而加速，我認為這可能意味著我們會有更高的利率和更陡峭的收益率曲線。

Do you guys have any thoughts on what you might do to the interest sensitivity of the balance sheet?

你們對如何應對資產負債表的利息敏感性有什麼想法嗎？

Would you change it?

你會改變它嗎？

Or do you want to just keep it the way it is?

還是您只想保持原樣？

Yes.

是的。

So I mean we -- for what it's worth, you should know our house view on interest rates is for there to be 4 hikes next year.

所以我的意思是我們 - 就其價值而言，你應該知道我們對利率的看法是明年會有 4 次加息。

The Fed dot's at 3, the market has 2. I would say tax reform and a stronger growth outlook will solidify the path of rate hikes.

美聯儲點數為 3，市場點數為 2。我想說稅制改革和更強勁的增長前景將鞏固加息路徑。

And so we've been factoring that into our balance sheet positioning anyway.

因此，無論如何，我們一直將其納入我們的資產負債表定位中。

So I would not expect there to be a material change in our strategy.

因此，我認為我們的戰略不會發生重大變化。

Okay.

好的。

And then in your release in the fourth quarter, you guys said how would the tax change affect your capital distribution plans.

然後在第四季度的發布中，你們說稅收變化將如何影響您的資本分配計劃。

And there's no change.

而且沒有任何變化。

The first day of distributions are going to be based on the 2017 CCAR approval.

第一天的分配將基於 2017 年 CCAR 批准。

Is that in terms of the payout ratio on this 2017 CCAR, or the nominal dollars?

是根據 2017 年 CCAR 的派息率還是名義美元？

Because obviously, your earnings now are going to be higher in the first half of '18 versus what you got approved for in the CCAR '17, which would imply, if you kept the payout ratio constant, you would actually have a higher nominal payout in the first half of '18.

因為很明顯，您現在的收入在 18 年上半年將高於您在 CCAR '17 年獲得批准的收入，這意味著，如果您保持派息率不變，您實際上會獲得更高的名義派息18 年上半年。

Our capital plan approval is on a nominal dollar basis.

我們的資本計劃批准是以名義美元為基礎的。

Our next question is from Matt O'Connor of Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Matt O'Connor。

It's probably a bit early to know how to kind of play this, but as you think about the winners and losers from tax reform, do you think there will be changes in terms of how you come to market, where you come to market?

現在知道如何玩這個可能有點早，但是當你考慮稅改的贏家和輸家時，你認為你進入市場的方式，你進入市場的地方會發生變化嗎？

A lot's been written obviously on the impact to some of the high-tax states and how money can flow from there to others.

關於對一些高稅收州的影響以及資金如何從那裡流向其他州的文章顯然已經寫了很多。

And obviously, you're in some high-tax states and also in low-tax states.

顯然，你在一些高稅收州和低稅收州。

And just trying to think through how you might tweak your business model or have to focus on some of your products in some of those markets.

並且只是想通過如何調整您的商業模式或必須專注於您在某些市場中的某些產品。

Yes.

是的。

So I would say -- I mean, in essence, time is our friend.

所以我想說——我的意思是，從本質上講，時間是我們的朋友。

So if you go back and look at -- and obviously, nothing is exactly like this.

所以如果你回過頭來看看——很明顯，沒有什麼是完全一樣的。

But if you go back and look at similar empirical evidence, it would say that any influences in terms of migration and flow of funds is pretty modest and pretty gradual.

但如果你回過頭來看看類似的經驗證據，就會發現移民和資金流動方面的任何影響都是相當溫和和漸進的。

And so -- and if you think about something as first order as housing in high-tax states, well, people are pretty situated where they live with their families and their jobs and higher-income borrower are specifically less price-sensitive.

所以 - 如果你考慮像高稅收州的住房這樣的首要任務，那麼，人們非常適合與家人和工作一起生活，而高收入借款人對價格特別不敏感。

So I think lots and lots of things come into play.

所以我認為很多很多事情都在發揮作用。

I think the area that we're getting -- that we're thinking about a little more is what's the optimal financing structure for clients given changes across the capital market structure.

我認為我們正在考慮的領域是考慮到整個資本市場結構的變化，對於客戶來說最佳融資結構是什麼。

But even in that sense, while you could say debt may be more expensive, it's still probably cheaper than equity, and equity may be more seen as fair value.

但即使在這個意義上，雖然你可以說債務可能更貴，但它仍然可能比股權便宜，而且股權可能更被視為公允價值。

But for JPMorgan, it's core to what we do.

但對於摩根大通來說，它是我們工作的核心。

We do cross-border acquisition, acquisition financing, liability management, and [both] capital structure strategies, we do all of it.

我們從事跨境收購、收購融資、負債管理和（兩種）資本結構戰略，我們都做。

So even if the sort of mix and optimal structure change, I think we're pretty well situated.

因此，即使混合和最佳結構發生變化，我認為我們的處境也很好。

So it's early days to be able to say that we would have strategic changes.

因此，現在可以說我們將進行戰略變革還為時過早。

I think it's early days.

我認為現在還為時過早。

And I would say that if that was to be the case, I would probably expect them to be quite marginal.

我會說，如果是這樣的話，我可能會認為它們是非常邊緣的。

And then how about just more on aggregate on the consumer underwriting side, if you are feeling more positive about the economy, you're seeing the growth in consumer personal income before the tax cut here and that may accelerate, does that make you more open to loosening underwriting standards a little bit?

那麼在消費者承保方面，如果您對經濟感到更加樂觀，您會看到這裡的減稅前消費者個人收入的增長可能會加速，這會讓您更加開放嗎？稍微放寬承保標準？

I feel like in aggregate, standards are still fairly tight versus where they were precrisis and there could be some opportunity there for you and others.

我覺得總的來說，與危機前相比，標準仍然相當嚴格，你和其他人可能會有一些機會。

Yes, I mean, I think that may be a fair observation, but I also think, to Jamie's earlier point, as much as we would like to imagine that all of this takes effect immediately, you would need to see the benefit of the environment in the income and spending and profitability and creditworthiness of people before you would be able to lean into the changes, necessarily, so maybe.

是的，我的意思是，我認為這可能是一個公平的觀察，但我也認為，就 Jamie 之前的觀點而言，儘管我們想想像所有這一切都會立即生效，但你需要看到環境的好處在人們的收入和支出以及盈利能力和信譽度方面，你必須能夠適應變化，所以也許。

But again, I think it's going to be something that will unfold.

但同樣，我認為這將是一些即將展開的事情。

Yes.

是的。

So we haven't changed our stance very much, and the one exception that might change over time, which I hope it does actually, is in mortgage lending, where I think because of the service requirements, capital requirements, reporting requirements and various litigation uncertainty, it has tightened the credit box around people who probably deserve credit, younger people, first-time buyers, prior defaults and -- but that's going to take the agencies working together to set new rules and new guidelines.

所以我們的立場並沒有太大改變，一個可能會隨著時間而改變的例外，我希望它實際上會改變，是抵押貸款，我認為這是因為服務要求、資本要求、報告要求和各種訴訟不確定性，它已經收緊了圍繞可能值得信貸的人、年輕人、首次購房者、先前違約的人的信貸盒——但這需要各機構共同努力製定新的規則和新的指導方針。

If that happens, that could actually be really good for growth in America.

如果發生這種情況，那實際上可能對美國的增長非常有利。

It doesn't really...

它真的不...

And pretty immediate.

而且很直接。

Yes, it's not going -- say that again?

是的，它不會——再說一遍？

And pretty immediate.

而且很直接。

And pretty immediate.

而且很直接。

And it's not going back to subprime.

而且它不會回到次貸。

It's just opening up the credit box and reducing the cost of the average mortgage, and we're hopeful that the agencies will eventually do that.

它只是打開了信用箱並降低了平均抵押貸款的成本，我們希望這些機構最終會這樣做。

Our next question is from Andrew Lim of Societe Generale.

我們的下一個問題來自法國興業銀行的 Andrew Lim。

I just wanted to take a devil's advocate approach for a bit.

我只是想採取一種魔鬼代言人的方法。

I've looked at the credit markets and the -- [your cup] has increased right across the spectrum, especially at the short term, actually, rather than the long end.

我查看了信貸市場，並且 - [你的杯子] 在整個範圍內都在增加，特別是在短期內，實際上，而不是長期。

And I'm thinking that these high-interest rates would feed into high credit losses at some point.

而且我認為這些高利率會在某些時候導致高信用損失。

I'm wondering if that's part of your thinking, whether that feeds into your credit quality models.

我想知道這是否是您的想法的一部分，是否會影響您的信用質量模型。

And if so, perhaps at what time would you think that the duration in credit might start to accelerate?

如果是這樣，也許您認為信貸期限可能會在什麼時候開始加速？

So probably it's an important thing because I think it's worth pointing out that there's been a lot of attention on a flatter yield curve, but you're right, it's driven by a higher [fund pen], which is a sort of good type of flattening, so to speak.

所以這可能是一件重要的事情，因為我認為值得指出的是，人們對更平坦的收益率曲線有很多關注，但你是對的，它是由更高的 [基金筆] 驅動的，這是一種很好的扁平化，可以這麼說。

And so that's what's been driving sort of NII growth for us.

這就是推動我們 NII 增長的原因。

And we do expect that, that will, together with the Fed normalizing its balance sheet, ultimately end up with a higher long end of rate.

我們確實預計，這將與美聯儲使其資產負債表正常化，最終以更高的長期利率結束。

So we're pretty optimistic about that.

所以我們對此非常樂觀。

You're right that at some point, typically, you would see potentially higher rates depending on the speed and inflation and other factors that would be -- precede the potential for a credit cycle.

您是對的，通常情況下，您會看到潛在的更高利率，具體取決於速度和通貨膨脹以及其他可能的因素 - 在信貸週期的可能性之前。

I mean, I suspect this will be no different.

我的意思是，我懷疑這不會有什麼不同。

That is not something that we see in our models or in our outlook over the near term.

這不是我們在我們的模型或短期前景中看到的東西。

So hopefully, the monetary policy will be gradual, and as expected, and we'll continue to see the front-end raise and everything will be rational, and of course, there could be surprises, but at some point, yes, but not in the near future.

因此，希望貨幣政策將是漸進的，正如預期的那樣，我們將繼續看到前端加息，一切都將是理性的，當然，可能會有驚喜，但在某些時候，是的，但不是在不遠的將來。

Great.

偉大的。

Could you say with -- what the average maturity of your corporate loan book is or across the loan book in general?

你能說一下——你的公司貸款賬簿的平均期限是多少，或者整個貸款賬簿的平均期限是多少？

Yes, it differs.

是的，它不同。

So it's shortened -- it...

所以它被縮短了——它...

It's fairly disclosed in the 10-K, but it's different for every single product, and it also changes as interest rates move around.

它在 10-K 中得到了公平的披露，但每個產品都不同，並且隨著利率的變化而變化。

Our next question is from Saul Martinez of UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的索爾馬丁內斯。

So you -- on your tax Q&A, you mentioned what the impact of tax reform is across different businesses from a growth standpoint, but you also talk about the potential for competition being uncertain in terms of how it impacts different businesses and different products.

所以你 - 在你的稅收問答中，你提到了從增長的角度來看稅收改革對不同企業的影響，但你也談到了競爭的潛力在它如何影響不同的企業和不同的產品方面是不確定的。

Can you talk to that a little bit and speak to which products and businesses you see more scope for competition, less scope for competition?

你能談一談，談談你認為哪些產品和業務競爭空間更大，競爭空間更小嗎？

And how does that influence how you think about investing in -- across your different businesses?

這如何影響您對投資的看法——跨不同的業務？

So I would start by saying that I think we showed at the Investor Day last year, and if we were to do something similar, maybe we will, it would look very similar today, which is if you go below our top line businesses to the businesses beneath that, so the vast majority of our businesses are more than covering that cost of equity by a fair margin today.

所以我首先要說的是，我認為我們在去年的投資者日上展示了，如果我們要做類似的事情，也許我們會做，今天看起來會非常相似，也就是說，如果你從我們的頂級業務到在此之下的業務，因此我們的絕大多數業務今天都以公平的幅度覆蓋了該股本成本。

So our investment strategy, it wouldn't be directly impacted by marginal changes in pricing and profitability up or down.

因此，我們的投資策略不會直接受到定價和盈利能力上下波動的邊際變化的影響。

We're going to continue to invest in everything that we can do well to improve the customer experience and grow the business.

我們將繼續投資於我們可以做得很好的一切，以改善客戶體驗和發展業務。

So I think we've been pretty consistent on that, not just today but over the course of the last several years.

所以我認為我們在這方面一直保持一致，不僅是今天，而且在過去的幾年裡。

And then I think it is uncertain.

然後我認為這是不確定的。

And so I would just give you the obvious extremes, which is, if you have 4 different organizations competing for a single large structure transaction and the cost of capital and tax as a direct input to pricing, I'm sure it will feature in the discussion.

所以我只想給你一些明顯的極端，也就是說，如果你有 4 個不同的組織競爭單一的大型結構交易，並且資本和稅收成本作為定價的直接輸入，我相信它會出現在討論。

And if you are talking about a very, very scale, very, very high-volume business with extraordinarily tight margins, it will probably have ultimately -- or at least in the very, very near term, less impact.

如果你談論的是一個非常非常規模、非常非常高產量、利潤非常低的業務，它最終可能會產生——或者至少在非常非常短期內，影響會更小。

But again, I actually think people will be quite disciplined how they think about this.

但同樣，我實際上認為人們會非常自律地思考這個問題。

And just to tell you an example away from finance.

只是為了告訴你一個遠離金融的例子。

Utilities already are being put in a position because it's part of the rate base and after-tax return, but they're going to pass it on to consumers, probably 100%.

公用事業公司已經處於一個位置，因為它是費率基礎和稅後回報的一部分，但他們會將其轉嫁給消費者，可能是 100%。

That may be different by state, but think of it that way.

這可能因州而異，但請這樣想。

And Marianne spoke about cap rates and stuff, and obviously, anything in the marketplace has been bid at, and the after-tax rate, you could see a pretty quick effect.

瑪麗安談到了上限率和其他東西，很明顯，市場上的任何東西都被競標過，稅後稅率，你可以很快看到效果。

Let's go all the way to Hershey candy bar.

讓我們一路去好時糖果吧。

It's not necessarily clear that if you sell candy or cereals and like that, you're going to have immediate repricing effect because of a tax rate change.

不一定清楚，如果你賣糖果或穀物之類的東西，你會因為稅率變化而立即產生重新定價效應。

So we run a whole gamut of things.

所以我們處理了各種各樣的事情。

And so we just have to wait and see how it works out.

所以我們只需要等待，看看結果如何。

At the end of the day, everyone benefits from more growth.

歸根結底，每個人都受益於更多的增長。

And to me, that's probably the most important thing.

對我來說，這可能是最重要的事情。

Yes.

是的。

No.

不。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

One of the businesses that has been doing extraordinarily -- extremely well in terms of growth and profitability momentum is the commercial banking business, and I feel like I ask this every quarter, but I guess the question is what you can do for an encore.

在增長和盈利動力方面表現非常出色的業務之一是商業銀行業務，我覺得我每個季度都會問這個問題，但我想問題是你可以為再來一次做些什麼。

It's a relevant part of your earnings now and revenues and a big part of the growth.

它是您現在收入和收入的相關部分，也是增長的很大一部分。

But can you just talk about to the sustainability of the momentum in terms of balance sheet growth, revenue growth, how much headway is there still to continue to grow in that business?

但是，您能否談談資產負債表增長、收入增長方面的勢頭的可持續性，該業務還有多少進展可以繼續增長？

Decades.

幾十年。

Decades.

幾十年。

You -- Marianne already mentioned to you now in the top 50 MSAs, we're already getting products and services.

你——Marianne 已經在前 50 名 MSA 中向你提到過，我們已經在獲得產品和服務。

We built technology in cash management side.

我們在現金管理方面建立了技術。

We're doing a better job serving U.S. middle-market companies for their international needs.

我們在為美國中型市場公司的國際需求提供服務方面做得更好。

It can go on for a long time.

它可以持續很長時間。

And we're more competitive.

而且我們更具競爭力。

We've got very good margins.

我們有很好的利潤。

And we're constantly investing in the -- people have done a great job.

我們一直在投資——人們做得很好。

We manage specialty finance lines.

我們管理專業金融線。

So it's just more of the same.

所以它只是更多的相同。

The thing about the commercial bank is the absolute nexus of everything we do.

商業銀行是我們所做一切的絕對紐帶。

It's delivering the whole company to our clients in a way that very few other people can do.

它以一種其他人很少能做到的方式將整個公司交付給我們的客戶。

And so we've been investing 100 banks of the year for a period of time, opening offices, adding capabilities, focusing on digital, improving the customer experience just like in the rest of our businesses.

因此，一段時間以來，我們一直在投資 100 家銀行，開設辦事處，增加能力，專注於數字化，改善客戶體驗，就像我們其他業務一樣。

And so credit aside, where ultimately there will be a cycle and it will be fine, that business is really poised to do very well.

所以撇開信用不談，最終會有一個週期並且會很好，該業務確實準備好做得很好。

Yes, and I'd just add to this, and we shouldn't leave this call without talking about in the custody in fund services business, we got a great new technology.

是的，我想補充一點，我們不應該在沒有談論基金服務業務託管的情況下離開這個電話，我們得到了一項很棒的新技術。

We've gained -- I think it looks like we've gained a little bit of share in the emerging markets where we're probably a little bit weak.

我們已經獲得了——我認為看起來我們在新興市場獲得了一點份額，我們可能有點弱。

Service levels have gone way up, and I'm embarrassed to say they weren't particularly good a couple years ago.

服務水平已經提高了，我很尷尬地說他們幾年前並不是特別好。

In Treasury Services, we're building a new international payment system.

在財務服務中，我們正在建立一個新的國際支付系統。

The banking is rebuilt in real time -- has an overall value, real-time payment business.

銀行是實時重建的——具有整體價值的實時支付業務。

What we've done with Aladdin, we feel exceptional (inaudible) fund services.

我們對阿拉丁所做的一切，讓我們覺得基金服務非常出色（聽不清）。

On the consumer side, we have a whole bunch of -- we look at our digital offerings, it's gone better and better and better.

在消費者方面，我們有一大堆——我們看看我們的數字產品，它變得越來越好。

There's a whole bunch more coming.

還有一大堆來。

Zelle and Chase QuickPay have gone -- I mean, we're not gaining share, we're definitely gaining clients.

Zelle 和 Chase QuickPay 已經走了——我的意思是，我們沒有獲得份額，我們肯定是在獲得客戶。

And so we have barely started to market that.

所以我們才剛剛開始推銷它。

That's where real-time P2P has opened -- I think our bench probably now like 30 or 40, but it's going to eventually be...

這就是實時 P2P 開放的地方——我認為我們的替補席現在可能是 30 或 40，但最終會是……

Essentially everyone with a bank account.

基本上每個人都有銀行賬戶。

Everyone's going to be open up to Zelle and -- and then of course, this year, we have beta ready.

每個人都會對 Zelle 敞開心扉——當然，今年我們已經準備好測試版了。

We spoke a little bit about online [sim] mobile banking.

我們談到了在線 [sim] 手機銀行。

And these -- some of these things, they all work with really great products and services, and we're pretty excited about it, actually.

而這些——其中一些東西，它們都與非常棒的產品和服務一起工作，實際上，我們對此感到非常興奮。

Our next question is from Brian Kleinhanzl of KBW.

我們的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Brian Kleinhanzl。

I just have one quick question on Securities Services.

我只有一個關於證券服務的簡單問題。

Within there, you saw good growth in your assets on the custody up over 3% quarter-on-quarter unannualized, but the revenues were up less than 1%.

在那裡，您看到託管資產的良好增長，未年化季度環比增長超過 3%，但收入增長不到 1%。

Could you kind of -- were there some timing issues with when the AUC came on?

你能不能——當 AUC 出現時有一些時間問題嗎？

Can you can kind of highlight what was the difference between the AUC growth and revenue growth this quarter?

您能否強調一下本季度 AUC 增長和收入增長之間的差異？

Yes.

是的。

So in Securities Services, we make money on NII.

所以在證券服務中，我們在 NII 上賺錢。

We make money on transactions.

我們通過交易賺錢。

And We make money on AUC.

我們在 AUC 上賺錢。

And depending upon whether that's fixed income or equities or whether it's emerging markets for the U.S., will drive the extent of that.

取決於這是固定收益還是股票，或者是否是美國的新興市場，將推動這一程度。

So it's not like you can take the overall revenue of Securities Services and link it to increases in assets under custody and draw a direct -- I mean, there's obviously a direct relationship, but it's not going to necessarily move in line.

因此，您不能將證券服務的整體收入與託管資產的增加聯繫起來並得出直接關係——我的意思是，顯然存在直接關係，但不一定會一致。

So I can tell you that looking at that decomposition of what time market levels and higher flows by region and looking at the portion of our revenues that's related to assets under custody that they were in line.

因此，我可以告訴您，查看按地區劃分的市場水平和更高流量的時間分解，並查看我們與託管資產相關的收入部分，它們符合規定。

The full year effect doesn't happen in 12 months.

全年效應不會在 12 個月內發生。

Yes, it is -- exactly.

是的，確實如此。

If you even go up -- they go up like $2 billion -- $2 trillion and 2/3 of assets going up, but it'll take a year before the full year effect of that's felt.

如果你甚至上漲 - 它們會上漲 20 億美元 - 2 萬億美元和 2/3 的資產會上漲，但需要一年的時間才能感受到全年的影響。

So you'll see partial effects actually flowing into this quarter.

所以你會看到部分影響實際上流入了本季度。

And we have no further questions at this time.

目前我們沒有進一步的問題。

Thanks, everyone.

謝謝大家。

Happy New Year.

新年快樂。

Thanks for joining us.

感謝您加入我們。

Yes, happy New Year, everybody.

是的，大家新年快樂。