摩根大通 (JPM) 2021 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to JPMorgan Chase's Second Quarter 2021 Earnings Call. This call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) We will now go live to the presentation. Please stand by.

早上好，女士們，先生們。歡迎參加摩根大通 2021 年第二季度財報電話會議。正在錄製此通話。 （操作員說明）我們現在將進行演示。請待命。

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to JPMorgan Chase's Chairman and CEO, Jamie Dimon; and Chief Financial Officer, Jeremy Barnum. Mr. Barnum, please go ahead.

在這個時候，我想把電話轉給摩根大通的董事長兼首席執行官傑米戴蒙；和首席財務官傑里米·巴納姆。巴納姆先生，請繼續。

Thanks, operator, and good morning, everyone. Before we get going, I'd just like to say how honored I am to be on my first earnings call following the footsteps of Marianne and Jen, both of whom taught me so much during my time working for them, and whose shoes will be very difficult to fill, but I'm going to try.

謝謝，接線員，大家早上好。在我們開始之前，我只想說我很榮幸能夠跟隨 Marianne 和 Jen 的腳步參加我的第一次財報電話會議，在我為他們工作期間，他們倆都教會了我很多東西，他們的鞋子將會是很難填，但我要試試。

So with that, this presentation is available on our website, and please refer to the disclaimer in the back. Starting on Page 1. The firm reported net income of $11.9 billion, EPS of $3.78 on revenue of $31.4 billion, and delivered a return on tangible common equity of 23%. These results include $3 billion of credit reserve releases, which I'll cover in more detail shortly.

因此，此演示文稿可在我們的網站上找到，請參閱後面的免責聲明。從第 1 頁開始。該公司報告的淨收入為 119 億美元，每股收益為 3.78 美元，收入為 314 億美元，有形普通股的回報率為 23%。這些結果包括 30 億美元的信貸儲備釋放，稍後我將更詳細地介紹。

Touching on a few highlights. Combined debit and credit spend was up 45% year-on-year, and more importantly, up 22% versus the more normal pre-COVID second quarter of 2019. It was an all-time record for IB fees, up 25% year-on-year, driven by advisory and debt underwriting. We saw particularly strong growth in AWM, with record long-term flows as well as record revenue.

談到幾個亮點。借記卡和貸記卡的總支出同比增長 45%，更重要的是，與 2019 年新冠疫情之前更正常的第二季度相比增長了 22%。這是 IB 費用的歷史記錄，同比增長 25%-在諮詢和債務承銷的推動下，同比增長。我們看到 AWM 的增長特別強勁，長期流量和收入都創歷史新高。

And finally, credit continues to be quite healthy, as evidenced by our exceptionally low net charge-offs across the board. Regarding our balance sheet, the trends from recent quarters have largely continued. Deposits are up 23% year-on-year and 4% sequentially, and loan growth remains low, flat year-on-year and up 1% quarter-on-quarter, although we have bright spots in certain pockets and the consumer spend trends are encouraging.

最後，信貸仍然相當健康，我們的全線淨沖銷極低就證明了這一點。關於我們的資產負債表，最近幾個季度的趨勢在很大程度上仍在繼續。存款同比增長 23% 和環比增長 4%，貸款增長仍然很低，同比持平，環比增長 1%，儘管我們在某些領域和消費支出趨勢方面有亮點令人鼓舞。

So now turning to Page 2 for more detail. As I go through this page, I'm going to provide you some context about the prior year quarter because the year-on-year comparisons are a bit noisy. So with respect to revenue, the second quarter of 2020 was an all-time record for Markets, with revenue of over $9.7 billion, and we recorded approximately $700 million of gains in our bridge book. With that in mind, revenue of $31.4 billion was down $2.4 billion or 7% year-on-year.

所以現在轉到第 2 頁了解更多詳細信息。在瀏覽此頁面時，我將為您提供有關上一季度的一些背景信息，因為同比比較有點嘈雜。因此，就收入而言，2020 年第二季度是 Markets 的歷史記錄，收入超過 97 億美元，我們在過渡賬簿中錄得約 7 億美元的收益。考慮到這一點，314 億美元的收入同比下降 24 億美元或 7%。

Noninterest revenue was down $1.3 billion or 7% due to the prior year items I just mentioned, partially offset by strong fee generation in Investment Banking and AWM as well as from card-related fees on higher spend. And net interest income was down $1.1 billion or 8%, driven by lower Markets NII and lower balances in Card. Expenses of $17.7 billion were up 4% year-on-year, largely on continued investments.

由於我剛才提到的上一年項目，非利息收入下降了 13 億美元或 7%，部分被投資銀行和 AWM 的強勁費用產生以及與卡相關的費用增加所抵消。由於 Markets NII 下降和 Card 餘額減少，淨利息收入下降了 11 億美元或 8%。 177 億美元的支出同比增長 4%，主要是由於持續投資。

And then on credit costs, going back to last year again, you will recall, in last year's second quarter, we built $8.9 billion in credit reserves during the height of the pandemic, whereas this year, we released $3 billion. So in this quarter, credit costs were a net benefit of $2.3 billion. And setting aside the reserve release, it's also worth noting that net charge-offs of just over $700 million were half of last year's second quarter number and continue to trend near historical lows.

然後是信貸成本，再回到去年，你會記得，在去年第二季度，我們在大流行最嚴重的時候建立了 89 億美元的信貸儲備，而今年，我們釋放了 30 億美元。因此，在本季度，信貸成本淨收益為 23 億美元。撇開儲備釋放不談，還值得注意的是，剛剛超過 7 億美元的淨沖銷是去年第二季度數字的一半，並且繼續接近歷史低點。

On the next page, let's go over the reserves. We released $3 billion this quarter as we grow increasingly confident about the economy in light of continued improvement in COVID, especially in the U.S. In Consumer, we released $2.6 billion, including $1.8 billion in Card and $600 million in Home Lending. And in Wholesale, we released nearly $450 million. So this leaves us with reserves of $22.6 billion, which, as a result of elevated remaining uncertainty about COVID and the shape of the economic recovery, are higher than would otherwise be implied by our central economic forecasts.

在下一頁，讓我們回顧一下儲備。我們在本季度釋放了 30 億美元，因為鑑於 COVID 的持續改善，尤其是在美國，我們對經濟越來越有信心。在消費者方面，我們釋放了 26 億美元，其中包括 18 億美元的信用卡和 6 億美元的房屋貸款。在 Wholesale 中，我們釋放了近 4.5 億美元。因此，這給我們留下了 226 億美元的儲備金，由於對 COVID 和經濟復甦形式的剩餘不確定性增加，這一儲備金高於我們中央經濟預測所暗示的水平。

Now moving to balance sheet and capital on Page 4. We ended the quarter with a CET1 ratio of 13%, down slightly versus the prior quarter, as net growth in retained earnings was more than offset by higher RWA across both retail and wholesale lending. This quarter also reflects the expiration of the temporary SLR exclusions and, as we anticipated, leverage is now a binding constraint. As you know, we finished CCAR a couple of weeks ago, and our SCB will be 3.2%, which reflects the Board's intention to increase the dividend to $1 per share in the third quarter.

現在轉到第 4 頁的資產負債表和資本。我們在本季度末的 CET1 比率為 13%，與上一季度相比略有下降，因為留存收益的淨增長被零售和批發貸款的 RWA 較高所抵消。本季度還反映了臨時 SLR 排除的到期，正如我們預期的那樣，槓桿現在是一個具有約束力的約束。如您所知，我們在幾週前完成了 CCAR，我們的 SCB 將為 3.2%，這反映了董事會打算在第三季度將股息增加到每股 1 美元。

Okay. Now let's go to our businesses, starting with Consumer & Community Banking on Page 5. CCB reported net income of $5.6 billion, including reserve releases of $2.6 billion on revenue of $12.8 billion, up 3% year-on-year. Of particular note this quarter is the acceleration of card spend. And so while card outstandings remain lower than pre-pandemic levels, this quarter's trends make us optimistic.

好的。現在讓我們來看看我們的業務，從第 5 頁的消費者和社區銀行業務開始。建行報告淨收入為 56 億美元，其中包括準備金釋放 26 億美元，收入為 128 億美元，同比增長 3%。本季度特別值得注意的是卡消費的加速。因此，儘管信用卡餘額仍低於大流行前的水平，但本季度的趨勢使我們感到樂觀。

Total debit and credit spend was up 45% year-on-year, and more importantly, up 22% versus the second quarter of '19. And within that, compared to 2019, June total spend was up 24%, indicating some healthy acceleration throughout the quarter. And travel and entertainment has really turned the corner, with spend flat versus the second quarter of '19, accelerating from down 11% in April to actually up 13% in June.

借記卡和貸記卡總支出同比增長 45%，更重要的是，與 19 年第二季度相比增長了 22%。其中，與 2019 年相比，6 月份的總支出增長了 24%，表明整個季度出現了一些健康的加速增長。旅遊和娛樂業確實出現了轉機，與 19 年第二季度相比，支出持平，從 4 月的下降 11% 加速到 6 月的實際增長 13%。

The rest of the CCB story remains consistent with prior quarters. Consumer and Small Business cash balances remain elevated, resulting in depressed loan growth. Overall loans were down 3% year-on-year from continued elevated prepayments in mortgage and on lower card outstandings, partially offset by strong growth in Auto and the impact of PPP.

建行故事的其餘部分與前幾個季度保持一致。消費者和小企業的現金餘額仍然很高，導致貸款增長低迷。總體貸款同比下降 3%，原因是抵押貸款預付款持續增加和信用卡未償付額減少，部分被汽車的強勁增長和購買力平價的影響所抵消。

Home Lending and Auto continued to have strong originations, with Home Lending up 64% to $40 billion, the highest quarterly figure since the third quarter of 2013; and Auto up 61% to a record $12.4 billion. Deposits were up 25% year-on-year or approximately $200 billion, and client investment assets were up 36%, driven by market appreciation and positive net flows across our adviser and digital channels.

房屋貸款和汽車貸款繼續強勁，房屋貸款增長 64% 至 400 億美元，為 2013 年第三季度以來的最高季度數字；汽車上漲 61%，達到創紀錄的 124 億美元。存款同比增長 25% 或約 2000 億美元，客戶投資資產增長 36%，這得益於市場升值以及我們顧問和數字渠道的正淨流量。

And our omnichannel strategy continues to deliver. We are more than halfway through our initial market expansion commitment as we have opened more than 200 new branches out of our goal of 400, which have exceeded our expectations by generating $7 billion in deposits and investments. And we are planning to be in all 48 contiguous states by the end of the summer.

我們的全渠道戰略將繼續發揮作用。我們最初的市場擴張承諾已經完成了一半以上，因為我們在 400 家的目標中開設了 200 多家新分支機構，超過了我們的預期，產生了 70 億美元的存款和投資。我們計劃在夏季結束前覆蓋所有 48 個州。

Digital trends continue to be strong as retail mobility recovers at a faster pace than branch transactions, which are still down more than 20% versus 2019. Active mobile users grew 10% year-on-year to over 42 million, and total digital transactions per engaged customer were up 12%. Expenses of $7.1 billion were up 4% year-on-year, driven by continued investments and higher volume and revenue-related expenses.

數字趨勢繼續強勁，因為零售移動性的恢復速度快於網點交易，網點交易與 2019 年相比仍下降了 20% 以上。活躍移動用戶同比增長 10%，超過 4200 萬，每人的數字交易總量參與的客戶增長了 12%。 71 億美元的支出同比增長 4%，這得益於持續的投資以及與數量和收入相關的支出增加。

Looking forward, the obvious question is the outlook for loan growth, especially in Card. And we are quite optimistic that the current spend trends will convert into resumption of loan growth through the end of this year and into next. And while we wait, the exceptionally low level of net charge-offs provides a substantial offset to the NII headwind.

展望未來，顯而易見的問題是貸款增長的前景，尤其是卡。我們非常樂觀地認為，目前的支出趨勢將在今年年底和明年恢復貸款增長。在我們等待的同時，極低的淨沖銷水平大大抵消了 NII 的逆風。

Next, the Corporate & Investment Bank on Page 6. CIB reported net income of $5 billion and an ROE of 23% on revenue of $13.2 billion. IB fees of $3.6 billion were up 25% year-on-year and up 20% quarter-on-quarter, an all-time record, driven by advisory and debt underwriting, leading to a year-to-date global IB wallet share of 9.4% and a #1 ranking.

接下來是第 6 頁的企業與投資銀行。CIB 報告淨收入為 50 億美元，ROE 為 23%，收入為 132 億美元。 IB 費用為 36 億美元，同比增長 25%，環比增長 20%，創歷史新高，受諮詢和債務承銷的推動，今年迄今全球 IB 錢包份額為9.4%，排名第一。

In Advisory, we were up 52% year-on-year, benefiting from the surge in announcement activity that has continued into the second quarter. Debt underwriting fees were up 26%, driven by an active acquisition finance market, offset by lower investment-grade issuance. And in equity underwriting, fees were up 9%, primarily driven by a strong performance in IPOs.

在諮詢方面，我們同比增長 52%，這得益於持續到第二季度的公告活動激增。在活躍的收購融資市場的推動下，債務承銷費上漲了 26%，但被較低的投資級發行所抵消。在股票承銷方面，費用上漲了 9%，主要是由於 IPO 的強勁表現。

The resulting Investment Banking revenue of $3.4 billion was roughly flat year-on-year due to the headwinds of the prior year's markup in the bridge book. Looking ahead to the third quarter, the pipeline remains very strong. We expect M&A activity and the IPO markets to remain active. And while IBCs are likely to be down sequentially, we still expect them to be up year-on-year.

由於前一年在過橋賬簿中加價的不利因素，由此產生的投資銀行業務收入為 34 億美元，與去年同期基本持平。展望第三季度，管道仍然非常強勁。我們預計併購活動和 IPO 市場將保持活躍。儘管 IBC 可能會連續下降，但我們仍預計它們將同比上升。

Moving to Markets. Total revenue was $6.8 billion, down 30% compared to an all-time record quarter last year. While normalization has been more prevalent in macro, overall, we ran above 2019 levels throughout the quarter on the back of strong client activity, outperforming our own expectations from earlier in the year.

轉移到市場。總收入為 68 億美元，與去年創紀錄的季度相比下降了 30%。雖然正常化在宏觀方面更為普遍，但總體而言，由於客戶活動強勁，我們在整個季度都高於 2019 年的水平，超出了我們今年早些時候的預期。

Fixed Income was down 44% compared to last year's exceptional results, but up 11% compared to the second quarter of '19. Equity Markets was up 13%, driven by record balances in prime as well as strong performance in cash and equity derivatives, where we matched last year's great results. Looking forward, while we expect normalization to continue across both Investment Banking and Markets, and most notably in Fixed Income, the timing and the extent of the normalization is obviously hard to predict.

與去年的出色業績相比，固定收益下降了 44%，但與 19 年第二季度相比增長了 11%。股票市場上漲了 13%，這得益於創紀錄的優質資產餘額以及現金和股票衍生品的強勁表現，我們在這些方面與去年的出色業績相當。展望未來，雖然我們預計投資銀行和市場將繼續正常化，尤其是在固定收益領域，但正常化的時間和程度顯然難以預測。

Wholesale Payments revenue was $1.5 billion, up 5%, driven by higher deposits and fees, largely offset by deposit margin compression. And Securities Services revenue was $1.1 billion, down 1%, as deposit margin compression was predominantly offset by growth in deposits and fees. Expenses of $6.5 billion were down 4% year-on-year, driven by lower performance-related compensation, partially offset by higher volume-related expense.

批發支付收入為 15 億美元，增長 5%，主要受存款和費用增加的推動，但很大程度上被存款保證金壓縮所抵消。證券服務收入為 11 億美元，下降 1%，因為存款保證金壓縮主要被存款和費用的增長所抵消。 65 億美元的費用同比下降 4%，這是由於與業績相關的薪酬下降，部分被與數量相關的費用增加所抵消。

Moving to Commercial Banking on Page 7. Commercial Banking reported net income of $1.4 billion and an ROE of 23%. Revenue of $2.5 billion was up 3% year-on-year, with higher Investment Banking, Lending and Wholesale Payments revenue, largely offset by lower deposit revenue and the absence of a prior year equity investment gain. Record gross Investment Banking revenue of $1.2 billion was up 37% on increased M&A and acquisition-related financing activity compared to prior year lows.

轉到第 7 頁的商業銀行業務。商業銀行業務報告的淨收入為 14 億美元，ROE 為 23%。收入為 25 億美元，同比增長 3%，其中投資銀行、貸款和批發支付收入增加，很大程度上被存款收入減少和沒有上一年的股權投資收益所抵消。與去年的低點相比，併購和收購相關的融資活動增加，創紀錄的 12 億美元投資銀行總收入增長了 37%。

Expenses of $981 million were up 10% year-on-year, driven by higher volume and revenue-related expenses and investments. Deposits of $290 billion were up 22% year-on-year as client balances remain elevated. Loans of $2.5 billion were down 12% year-on-year, driven by lower revolver utilization compared to the prior year quarter, and down 1% sequentially.

9.81 億美元的費用同比增長 10%，這主要是由於銷量和收入相關的費用和投資增加。由於客戶餘額保持較高水平，存款 2,900 億美元同比增長 22%。 25 億美元的貸款同比下降 12%，這是由於左輪手槍使用率低於去年同期，環比下降 1%。

C&I loans were down 1% quarter-on-quarter, with lower utilization partially offset by new loan activity in Middle Market. And CRE loans were down 1%, but we saw pockets of growth in affordable housing activity. Finally, credit costs were a net benefit of $377 million, driven by reserve releases, with net charge-offs of only 1 basis point.

工商業貸款環比下降 1%，利用率下降部分被中間市場的新貸款活動所抵消。 CRE 貸款下降了 1%，但我們看到經濟適用房活動出現小幅增長。最後，在儲備金釋放的推動下，信貸成本淨收益為 3.77 億美元，淨沖銷僅為 1 個基點。

And to complete our lines of business, on to Asset & Wealth Management on Page 8. Asset & Wealth Management's reported net income of $1.2 billion, with pretax margin of 37% and an ROE of 32%. Record revenue of $4.1 billion was up 20% year-on-year as higher management fees and growth in deposit and loan balances were partially offset by deposit 1margin compression. Expenses of $2.6 billion were up 11% year-on-year, driven by higher performance-related compensation and distribution expenses.

為了完成我們的業務，請參閱第 8 頁的資產與財富管理。資產與財富管理報告的淨收入為 12 億美元，稅前利潤率為 37%，ROE 為 32%。創紀錄的 41 億美元收入同比增長 20%，因為較高的管理費和存貸款餘額的增長被存款 1 保證金壓縮部分抵消。受與業績相關的薪酬和分銷費用增加的推動，26 億美元的費用同比增長 11%。

For the quarter, net long-term inflows of $49 billion continued to be positive across all channels, with notable strength in equities, fixed income and alternatives. AUM was $3 trillion. And for the first time, overall client assets were over $4 trillion, up 21% and 25% year-on-year, respectively, driven by higher market levels and strong net inflows. And finally, loans were up 21% year-on-year, with continued strength in securities-based lending, custom lending and mortgages, while deposits were up 37%.

本季度，490 億美元的長期淨流入在所有渠道中繼續保持正向增長，股票、固定收益和另類投資表現顯著。資產管理規模為 3 萬億美元。在更高的市場水平和強勁的淨流入的推動下，整體客戶資產首次超過 4 萬億美元，同比分別增長 21% 和 25%。最後，貸款同比增長 21%，證券類貸款、定制貸款和抵押貸款持續強勁，而存款增長 37%。

Turning to Corporate on Page 9. Corporate reported a net loss of $1.2 billion. Revenue was a loss of $1.2 billion, down $415 million year-on-year. NII was down $274 million, primarily unlimited deployment opportunities as deposit growth continued, and we realized $155 million of net investment securities losses in the quarter. Expenses of $515 million were up $368 million year-on-year.

轉到第 9 頁的企業。企業報告淨虧損 12 億美元。收入虧損 12 億美元，同比減少 4.15 億美元。 NII 減少了 2.74 億美元，主要是隨著存款持續增長，部署機會無限，我們在本季度實現了 1.55 億美元的淨投資證券損失。費用為 5.15 億美元，同比增加 3.68 億美元。

So with that, on Page 10, the outlook. Our 2021 NII outlook of around $52.5 billion remains in line with the updated guidance we provided last month. But as you'll note, we've also lowered our outlook for the Card net charge-off rate to less than 250 basis points, which, as I mentioned in CCB, provides a meaningful offset to the NII headwind. And it's worth mentioning that the current environment makes forecasting NII even in the near term unusually challenging.

因此，在第 10 頁，展望。我們對 2021 年 NII 的展望約為 525 億美元，與我們上個月提供的最新指引保持一致。但正如你會注意到的，我們還將信用卡淨沖銷率的前景下調至低於 250 個基點，正如我在建行中提到的，這為 NII 逆風提供了有意義的抵消。值得一提的是，當前環境使得即使在短期內預測 NII 也異常具有挑戰性。

So while $52.5 billion remains our current central case, you should expect some elevated uncertainty around that number, not only because of the ongoing impact of stimulus on Consumer balance sheets, but also due to volatility coming from Markets, among other things. And as a reminder, most of any fluctuation in Markets NII, whether up or down, is likely to be offset in NIR. On expenses, we've increased our guidance to approximately $71 billion, driven by higher volume and revenue-related expenses.

因此，雖然 525 億美元仍然是我們當前的核心案例，但您應該預計該數字的不確定性會增加，這不僅是因為刺激措施對消費者資產負債表的持續影響，還因為市場波動等。提醒一下，市場 NII 的大部分波動，無論是上漲還是下跌，都可能在 NIR 中被抵消。在費用方面，由於數量和與收入相關的費用增加，我們已將我們的指導提高至約 710 億美元。

So to wrap up, we are encouraged by the continued progress against the virus and the economic recovery that is underway, especially in the United States, although we want to acknowledge the challenges that much of the rest of the world is facing, and we're hopeful that a global recovery will follow closely behind. Our performance this quarter once again showcases the power of our diversified business model as headwinds in NII from Consumer delevering are offset by strong fee generation across AWM and CIB and exceptionally low net charge-offs across the board.

最後，我們對抗擊病毒的持續進展和正在進行的經濟復甦感到鼓舞，尤其是在美國，儘管我們想承認世界其他大部分地區面臨的挑戰，而且我們再次希望全球復甦將緊隨其後。我們本季度的表現再次展示了我們多元化商業模式的力量，因為消費者去槓桿化對 NII 的不利影響被 AWM 和 CIB 的強勁費用產生以及全線極低的淨沖銷所抵消。

While we're proud of the performance of the company and of our people through the crisis, the competition in every business from banks, fintechs and others is as intense as ever. So as we look forward to an increasingly normal environment, we are enthusiastically focused on competing for every piece of share in every market, product and business where we operate and making the necessary investments to win.

雖然我們為公司和我們的員工在危機中的表現感到自豪，但來自銀行、金融科技公司和其他公司的每項業務的競爭都一如既往地激烈。因此，當我們期待日益正常的環境時，我們熱情地專注於在我們經營的每個市場、產品和業務中爭奪每一塊份額，並進行必要的投資以贏得勝利。

With that, operator, please open the line for Q&A.

有了這個，接線員，請打開問答線路。

And our first question is coming from the line of Glenn Schorr from Evercore ISI.

我們的第一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Glenn Schorr。

Jeremy, welcome. Welcome to the party.

傑里米，歡迎。歡迎來到派對。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝你。

Question on NII, if I could, and I apologize if it's a little multifaceted. But -- so even though we're getting some inflationary data, and you're possibly inclined on economy, as it might, rates fell. I'm not sure you want to opine on why, but let's talk about you kept the NII guide, I'm assuming, because deposit growth is strong.

關於 NII 的問題，如果可以的話，我很抱歉，如果它有點多方面的。但是——所以即使我們得到了一些通脹數據，而且你可能傾向於經濟，但利率還是下降了。我不確定你想就為什麼發表意見，但讓我們談談你保留了 NII 指南，我假設，因為存款增長強勁。

Curious, your thoughts on consumer payment rates staying at this elevated level, deposit growth staying at this elevated level? And then, most importantly, if you're managing the balance sheet any differently, meaning you had been slow playing, putting money to work, rates are even lower now, but are you still slow playing putting money to work? I appreciate it.

好奇，您對消費者支付率保持在這個高水平，存款增長保持在這個高水平的想法？然後，最重要的是，如果你管理資產負債表的方式有所不同，這意味著你一直在緩慢地投入資金，現在利率甚至更低，但你還在緩慢地投入資金工作嗎？我很感激。

Yes. Thanks, Glenn. All right. So let's sort of take that in parts. So in terms of our NII guidance, so yes, so we're reiterating $52.5 billion for the full year. So just to take your deployment point first, obviously, rates are a little bit lower, long end rates are a bit lower.

是的。謝謝，格倫。好的。所以讓我們把它分成幾部分。所以就我們的 NII 指導而言，是的，所以我們重申全年 525 億美元。因此，首先考慮您的部署點，顯然，費率要低一些，長期費率要低一些。

The curve has flattened a little bit since we provided that guidance. But when we provided that guidance, we were reasonably conservative in our deployment assumptions through the rest of the year. So as a result of that, it's not really a meaningful factor, sort of at the level of precision that we're talking about here.

自從我們提供該指導以來，曲線已經變平了一點。但是，當我們提供該指導時，我們在今年剩餘時間裡的部署假設相當保守。因此，它並不是一個真正有意義的因素，有點像我們在這裡討論的精度水平。

In terms of the Consumer side, as you say, obviously, it's really -- Card is really going to be the big driver. So you heard us talking about payment rates, and you see the sequential growth in card loans. So we do believe that the sort of acceleration and the pickup in spend is going to translate to, as I say, a resumption of loan growth in Card.

就消費者方面而言，正如您所說，顯然，卡確實會成為主要驅動力。所以你聽到我們談論支付率，你看到卡貸款的連續增長。因此，我們確實相信，正如我所說，這種加速和支出的增加將轉化為 Card 貸款增長的恢復。

But we do think that pay rates are going to remain quite elevated at a minimum through the end of this year. So as a result, we don't really see revolving interest-bearing balances increasing meaningfully this year. And so as a result, that remains a headwind for the overall NII for this year, which is incorporated in the outlook.

但我們確實認為，到今年年底，工資率至少會保持相當高的水平。因此，我們並沒有真正看到今年的循環計息餘額顯著增加。因此，這仍然是今年整體 NII 的逆風，這已包含在展望中。

Okay. And then in terms of managing balance sheet any differently in terms of putting money to work, are you still conservative on that front?

好的。然後在管理資產負債表方面，在投入資金方面有什麼不同，你在這方面仍然保守嗎？

Yes. Look, I mean, I think you've heard us talk about this before, right? So our central case, from an economic perspective, is for a very robust recovery. And that's pretty much a consensus view between us, our research team, the Fed, et cetera. And that view is associated with higher inflation, along the lines of the Fed's own targets for higher inflation. All those things together, it's an outlook that's associated with higher rates, all else equal.

是的。聽著，我的意思是，我想你以前聽我們談論過這個，對吧？因此，從經濟角度來看，我們的核心案例是實現非常強勁的複蘇。這幾乎是我們、我們的研究團隊、美聯儲等機構之間的共識。這種觀點與更高的通脹有關，這與美聯儲自己的更高通脹目標一致。所有這些東西加在一起，這是一個與更高利率相關的前景，其他一切都相同。

And so in light of all that, we do remain happy to stay patient here. And if you look at our EIR disclosure, which you obviously won't see until you get the Q, but some of you guys have written about this recently, our overall sensitivities here are kind of in line with the industry. So when you consider kind of the tail-type things that Jamie also talks about, the complexity of the balance sheet and various other factors, we do still feel that being patient here makes sense.

因此，鑑於所有這些，我們仍然很樂意在這裡保持耐心。如果您查看我們的 EIR 披露，您顯然在獲得 Q 之前不會看到，但是你們中的一些人最近寫過這方面的文章，我們在這裡的整體敏感性與行業一致。因此，當你考慮到 Jamie 還談到的尾類問題、資產負債表的複雜性和其他各種因素時，我們仍然認為在這裡保持耐心是有道理的。

Okay. And just one quickie on the recent -- both acquisitions and investments, and you or Jamie could feel free to take it, I'm curious on, a, big picture, is it just coincidence that there's been 5 things within a very short period of time? And maybe if you want to expand on maybe net mix, specifically, and why the change in terms of shying away from international expansion in the past and now making a little bit better move in? I appreciate it.

好的。關於最近的一個簡短的 - 收購和投資，你或傑米可以隨意接受，我很好奇，一個大局，在很短的時間內發生 5 件事是否只是巧合時間？也許如果你想擴大可能的淨組合，特別是，為什麼在過去迴避國際擴張方面的變化現在變得更好一點？我很感激。

Sure, Glenn. So let me start with the international expansion point on the Consumer side because that's interesting. You've heard Jamie over the years talk about why it wouldn't really make sense to do international expansion in Consumer when you think about that through the lens of a branch-based strategy.

當然，格倫。所以讓我從消費者方面的國際擴張點開始，因為這很有趣。多年來，您已經聽過 Jamie 談到為什麼當您從基於分支機構的戰略的角度考慮這一點時，在消費者領域進行國際擴張並沒有真正意義。

So if you imagine, going outside of the U.S. and opening branches in other countries and competing with the incumbents, just from a branding perspective, from an operating leverage perspective, we've never felt that, that was likely to be a successful strategy for us, and that hasn't really changed. The difference right now is the ability to do that digital.

因此，如果你想像一下，走出美國並在其他國家開設分支機構並與現有企業競爭，僅從品牌推廣的角度，從運營槓桿的角度來看，我們從未覺得，這可能是一個成功的戰略我們，這並沒有真正改變。現在的不同之處在於實現數字化的能力。

So what's really particularly exciting about the international expansion narrative, both in the U.K. and now with our recent investment in C6 in Brazil, is the ability to kind of experiment a little bit. Obviously, it's a strategically compelling opportunity. Brazil, as you probably know, is like the third biggest Consumer Banking market in the world. But it's kind of fun to be the disruptor.

因此，在英國以及現在我們最近在巴西投資 C6 的國際擴張敘事中，真正特別令人興奮的是能夠進行一些實驗。顯然，這是一個具有戰略意義的機會。您可能知道，巴西就像世界上第三大個人銀行市場。但成為破壞者是一種樂趣。

And so I think, for us, given our position in Consumer Banking in the United States, being in a place where we are actually the outsider disrupting through these kind of digital channels, we see it, among other things, in addition to being compelling financially, as a really good opportunity to learn and to challenge ourselves a little bit from the inside. So we're quite excited about that stuff.

所以我認為，對我們而言，鑑於我們在美國消費者銀行業務中的地位，在一個我們實際上是通過這些數字渠道進行破壞的局外人的地方，我們看到它，除此之外，除了引人注目之外在經濟上，這是一個學習和從內部挑戰自己的好機會。所以我們對這些東西感到非常興奮。

Our next question is coming from the line of John McDonald from Autonomous Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Autonomous Research 的 John McDonald。

Jeremy, I want to ask you about capital. You mentioned leverage is now the binding constraint. And Jen has previously talked about a 12% CET1 target. I guess, could you talk about the multiple variables that you're balancing as you guys decide what capital levels to run at?

傑里米，我想問你關於資本的問題。您提到槓桿現在是約束條件。 Jen 此前曾談到 12% 的 CET1 目標。我想，你能談談在你們決定運行什麼資本水平時要平衡的多個變量嗎？

You've got a rising GSIB score, an SLR cushion that's shrinking, but maybe the rules get revised. And obviously, an SCB, that came down a little bit, but maybe you're hoping for more. How are you wrapping that all together into what kind of capital levels to target?

你的 GSIB 分數在上升，SLR 緩沖在縮小，但也許規則會被修改。顯然，SCB 下降了一點，但也許你希望得到更多。您如何將所有這些組合成目標資本水平？

Yes. It's a good question, John, and yes, there are a lot of variables. So let me start by saying that, in terms of a 12% target, it's not off the table, is what I'll say about that, meaning 12% -- it's not necessarily -- doesn't necessarily need to be higher. So for now, it's not off the table. But the element of time, i.e., when are we bound by what, matters quite a bit as you think about this.

是的。這是一個很好的問題，約翰，是的，有很多變數。因此，讓我首先說，就 12% 的目標而言，這不是不可能的，這就是我要說的，這意味著 12%——不一定——不一定需要更高。所以現在，它還沒有被排除在外。但是時間的因素，即我們什麼時候受什麼約束，在你思考這個問題時相當重要。

So just to go through some of the pieces. You've noted the GSIB point. So we're in the 4% bucket now as of the end of last year. That comes into play in 2023. We're currently operating in 4.5%. As you know, that's quite a seasonal number. So it's still possible to get under 4.5% for the end of this year. But we have to acknowledge an elevated probability, I would say, of landing in the 4.5% bucket this year, but the 4.5% bucket would be binding in 2024.

所以只是通過一些片段。您已經註意到 GSIB 點。因此，截至去年年底，我們現在處於 4% 的桶中。這將在 2023 年發揮作用。我們目前的運營率為 4.5%。如您所知，這是一個相當季節性的數字。因此，今年年底仍有可能低於 4.5%。但我們必須承認，我想說的是，今年登陸 4.5% 的桶的可能性更高，但 4.5% 的桶將在 2024 年具有約束力。

And as you noted, in the meantime, we're bound by SLR. And we've been quite public about our views about these things, about the extent to which, increasingly, our capital requirements are driven by nonrisk-sensitive, size-based measures which were really designed, especially in the case of SLR, as backstops, which the Fed has acknowledged.

正如你所指出的，與此同時，我們受到 SLR 的約束。我們對這些事情的看法非常公開，我們的資本要求越來越多地受到非風險敏感、基於規模的措施的驅動，這些措施是真正設計的，特別是在 SLR 的情況下，作為支持，美聯儲已經承認了這一點。

So our priority, right -- and the Fed has talked about potentially addressing some of these things. We know we're waiting for an NPR on SLR, but also, they have said that a potential GSIB fix could come as part of the holistic implementation of the Basel III end game. So there's a lot of things that are going to play out between now and some of those minimums becoming binding.

所以我們的首要任務是正確的——美聯儲已經討論過可能解決其中一些問題。我們知道我們正在等待關於 SLR 的 NPR，但他們也表示，潛在的 GSIB 修復可能是巴塞爾協議 III 最終遊戲整體實施的一部分。因此，從現在到其中一些最低要求變得具有約束力，將會有很多事情發生。

And realistically, right now, we're going to be operating above 12% anyway in light of the leverage bound in all likelihood. So we're managing a variety of different factors, near term, short term, prefs, common, et cetera. And we're just going to try to be nimble about it as more information comes out over the next few quarters.

實際上，現在，鑑於槓桿很可能會受到限制，我們無論如何都將在 12% 以上運行。因此，我們正在管理各種不同的因素，近期、短期、偏好、常見等。隨著更多信息在接下來的幾個季度中出現，我們將盡量保持靈活。

And John, if I could just make a further point. We have tons of capital, $200 billion of CET1, $35 billion of preferred, $300 million of long-term debt, only $1 trillion of loans, which is the riskiest asset we have, and $1.5 trillion of cash and marketable securities. So the underlying thing is there's just tons of capital in the system. And I think, one day, if you have a look at it and say, "Why so much," to the liquid side.

還有約翰，如果我能再提一點的話。我們擁有大量資本、2000 億美元的 CET1、350 億美元的優先股、3 億美元的長期債務、只有 1 萬億美元的貸款，這是我們擁有的風險最高的資產，以及 1.5 萬億美元的現金和有價證券。所以潛在的事情是系統中只有大量的資本。而且我認為，有一天，如果你看一下它並說，“為什麼這麼多？”到流動性方面。

Yes. And then a quick follow-up, Jeremy, on expenses. You revised the fiscal year '21 outlook upward a few times now. Could you give a little more detail on the business volumes and revenues that are driving this?

是的。然後快速跟進，傑里米，關於費用。您現在幾次向上修訂了 21 財年的展望。您能否詳細說明推動這一趨勢的業務量和收入？

And also, we hear a lot about inflation across the economy. Are we seeing broader inflation play a role in your company's expenses and outlook?

而且，我們聽到了很多關於整個經濟的通貨膨脹。我們是否看到更廣泛的通貨膨脹在貴公司的支出和前景中發揮作用？

Yes. So a couple of things there. So yes, as you note, we have revised up from $70 billion to $71 billion, and the biggest single driver there is volume and revenue-related expense, where, if you...

是的。所以有幾件事。所以是的，正如你所說，我們已經從 700 億美元上調至 710 億美元，最大的單一驅動因素是數量和與收入相關的費用，如果你......

Yes. It's just comp. It's not...

是的。這只是補償。它不是...

Well, it's not, but it's always up to. It's...

好吧，它不是，但它總是取決於。它的...

The comp, we're going to be competitive in comp, no matter what it takes. Let's just keep that in the back of your mind.

比賽，無論需要什麼，我們都會在比賽中具有競爭力。讓我們記住這一點。

It is a little bit of comp. It's also transaction-related volumes. It's also marketing expense in certain pockets. So it's all the stuff that fits in the category of volume and revenue-related. And I think the point is, obviously, we're all a little bit focused on the NII headwinds right now.

這是一個小小的補償。它也是與交易相關的交易量。這也是某些口袋的營銷費用。因此，所有這些都屬於與數量和收入相關的類別。而且我認為關鍵是，顯然，我們現在都有點關注 NII 的逆風。

But from an AR perspective, across markets, AWM, IB, CIB in general, and even pockets, wealth management and CCB, we're actually outperforming the revenue expectations that were built into our prior expense guidance. So that's kind of the dynamic there.

但從 AR 的角度來看，在整個市場、AWM、IB、CIB，甚至口袋、財富管理和建行，我們實際上都超過了我們先前費用指導中的收入預期。這就是那裡的動態。

In terms of inflation, I would say that we're not seeing inflation in our actuals. But obviously, your guess is as good as mine in terms of the future, but it would be reasonable to assume that, that's going to be a little bit of a challenge, to a greater or lesser degree, if the economy as a whole is in a slightly higher inflationary environment. And we did probably include a little bit of that expectation in the $71 billion for this year.

就通貨膨脹而言，我想說的是，我們實際上並沒有看到通貨膨脹。但顯然，就未來而言，您的猜測與我的猜測一樣好，但可以合理地假設，如果整個經濟處於在通脹略高的環境下。我們可能確實在今年的 710 億美元中包含了一些預期。

Our next question is coming from the line of Ken Usdin from Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Ken Usdin。

Jeremy, if I could just follow-up on your points about capital and just how we should be thinking about -- you gave us clarity on the dividend, and we know there's the $30 billion open authorization on the buyback. Again, just kind of fitting for the middle there, how do you balance just the magnitude of buyback you do from here versus the ongoing growth that we have in the balance sheet vis-à-vis what you just talked about as far as the limitations?

傑里米，如果我能跟進你關於資本的觀點以及我們應該如何思考 - 你讓我們清楚地了解了股息，我們知道有 300 億美元的公開回購授權。再次，只是適合那裡的中間，你如何平衡你從這裡做的回購規模與我們在資產負債表中的持續增長與你剛才談到的限制?

Yes. So I mean the answer to how we balance it is we talk about it a lot. We have a lot of smart people looking at it, trying to balance all the different constraints that we're managing. And I think Jen talked before, especially when it comes to the balance between our risk-based minimums and the SLR constraint, which, as you know, we can address with prefs, so about kind of the mixture of prefs and common. So we're looking at that. I think RRP is helping a little bit on the deposit growth side, which helps a little bit with the management of SLR.

是的。所以我的意思是我們如何平衡它的答案是我們經常談論它。我們有很多聰明的人在研究它，試圖平衡我們正在管理的所有不同的約束。而且我認為 Jen 之前說過，特別是在我們基於風險的最小值和 SLR 約束之間的平衡方面，正如你所知，我們可以使用偏好來解決，所以關於偏好和常見的混合。所以我們正在研究那個。我認為 RRP 在存款增長方面有所幫助，這對 SLR 的管理有所幫助。

But as I said previously, we're going to stay nimble there and use the tools at our disposal to try to strike the right balance between buybacks and pref issuance, recognizing that overissuing prefs potentially locks us in to high-cost prefs with low flexibility because of the 5-year lockout. So there's a lot of balancing there, and we're just staying nimble as information potentially trickles out on the evolution of the rules.

但正如我之前所說，我們將保持靈活並使用我們可以使用的工具來嘗試在回購和優先權發行之間取得適當的平衡，認識到過度發行優先權可能會將我們鎖定在靈活性低的高成本優先權中因為停工5年。所以那裡有很多平衡，我們只是保持靈活，因為信息可能會隨著規則的演變而流出。

Okay. And then just -- so then, as far as how you guys will communicate, we'll just find out about the buyback on a quarterly basis as opposed to you giving a more broad outlook of your expectations around buybacks as it happened more in the past. Is that fair?

好的。然後就 - 那麼，就你們如何溝通而言，我們只會按季度了解回購情況，而不是讓您更廣泛地展望您對回購的預期，因為它在過去的。這公平嗎？

Yes. I think that's right, especially in the new environment that we're operating in from a buyback perspective, now that it's not sort of an approved plan through CCAR, but is rather just the overall $30 billion board authorization. Given what I just talked about in terms of the need to stay nimble across multiple constraints, we wouldn't want to box ourselves in by speaking publicly ahead of time in terms of what we're going to do.

是的。我認為這是正確的，特別是在我們從回購的角度來看的新環境中，現在這不是通過 CCAR 批准的計劃，而只是整體 300 億美元的董事會授權。鑑於我剛才談到的需要在多重限制下保持敏捷，我們不希望提前公開談論我們將要做的事情。

So -- and you know, obviously, our normal capital higher, so at the end of the day, we're always going to invest first and look at interesting acquisitions and pay a sustainable dividend. And at the end of that, we'll look at buybacks in the context of all the other factors.

所以 - 你知道，很明顯，我們的正常資本更高，所以在一天結束時，我們總是會首先投資並關注有趣的收購併支付可持續的股息。最後，我們將在所有其他因素的背景下研究回購。

Yes. We could probably give you a more definitive thing after they finish Basel III, which is now 10 years in the making, and SLR and all the updates, and then you'll have more certainty about how this thing operates going forward.

是的。在他們完成巴塞爾 III 之後，我們可能會給你一個更明確的東西，現在已經有 10 年的時間了，SLR 和所有更新，然後你會對這件事的未來運作方式有更多的確定性。

Our next question is coming from the line of Jim Mitchell from Seaport Global Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Seaport Global Securities 的 Jim Mitchell。

Maybe just a follow-up on the Card business. You had 7% quarter-over-quarter growth in balances, but I think your guidance was still a little cautious. Is that just being conservative? You're still not sure about the relationship between spend and balance growth? Or how do we think about the good quarter and sort of that cautious outlook?

也許只是卡業務的後續行動。你們的餘額環比增長了 7%，但我認為你們的指導仍然有點謹慎。這只是保守嗎？您仍然不確定支出與餘額增長之間的關係嗎？或者我們如何看待良好的季度和那種謹慎的前景？

Yes. So I wouldn't use the word conservative. We've tried very hard in our outlook to give you central case numbers. So we're going to be wrong, but hopefully, it will be wrong symmetrically. So we really want to try hard to give you central case numbers that don't have baseless optimism or unnecessary conservatism in them.

是的。所以我不會用保守這個詞。我們在展望中非常努力地為您提供中心病例數。所以我們會錯的，但希望它是對稱的。因此，我們真的很想努力為您提供沒有毫無根據的樂觀或不必要的保守主義的核心案例數字。

What -- so the point that you highlight, the sort of apparent disconnect between the sequential increase in card loans and the relatively muted NII outlook is really just about pay rates. So we continue to see very elevated pay rates by historical standards really highly unusual as a result of some of the themes that we've called out in terms of the strength of the Consumer balance sheet.

什麼 - 所以你強調的一點是，信用卡貸款的連續增長與相對低迷的 NII 前景之間的明顯脫節實際上只是關於工資率。因此，由於我們在消費者資產負債表的強度方面提出的一些主題，我們繼續看到按歷史標準衡量的非常高的工資率確實非常不尋常。

So as long as that's true, and we're seeing sort of unusually low conversion of spend into revolving balances, that's going to be a little bit of an NII headwind until the Consumer starts to relever, which we do think will happen. We just don't think it's likely to be a meaningful effect this year.

因此，只要這是真的，並且我們看到支出轉化為循環餘額的比例異常低，那麼在消費者開始重新調整之前，這將是一個小小的逆風，我們確實認為這會發生。我們只是認為今年不太可能產生有意義的影響。

That's fair. And then on the charge-offs, that's obviously been a big benefit. I think if we look at delinquencies, both early stage and later stage, they kept falling throughout the quarter. Is there anything unusual this quarter where we saw a pretty big drop? Should we expect further declines in NCOs as the year progresses, given delinquency trends?

這還算公平。然後在沖銷時，這顯然是一個很大的好處。我認為，如果我們看看早期和後期的拖欠情況，它們在整個季度都在不斷下降。本季度有什麼不尋常的地方我們看到了相當大的下降嗎？鑑於拖欠趨勢，隨著時間的推移，我們是否應該預期 NCO 會進一步下降？

Yes. So I think on charge-offs, I would just stick to the updated Card guidance that we gave, which is lower, just saying that's going to be below 2.5%. But again, it's the same themes, right? Like elevated cash buffers in consumers are resulting in exceptionally strong NCO performance and sort of upside surprises in terms of people paying.

是的。所以我認為關於沖銷，我會堅持我們提供的更新的卡片指導，它較低，只是說這將低於 2.5%。但是，同樣的主題，對吧？就像消費者增加的現金緩衝導致 NCO 表現異常強勁，並在人們支付方面帶來了一些驚喜。

So there's sort of 2 sides of the same coin right now: lower revolving balances, better NCOs. And then, as we continue returning to normal, presumably in 2022, we should see both of those come back slightly to historical trends.

所以現在同一枚硬幣有兩個方面：較低的循環餘額，更好的 NCO。然後，隨著我們繼續恢復正常，大概在 2022 年，我們應該會看到這兩者都略微恢復到歷史趨勢。

Our next question is coming from the line of Mike Mayo from Wells Fargo Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wells Fargo Securities 的 Mike Mayo。

Jeremy, welcome. My question, I want to follow-up. I think Glenn asked Jamie for the answer to this question, so I'm going to try again. Are these acquisitions that you've done, and I count 8 since December, and the question is, Jamie, what is the strategy? Is the strategy, I guess, in some cases, it's to disrupt to new markets, as Jeremy said? Maybe it's to avoid costs, maybe it's to scale across tens of millions of customers or, and this is the real question, are you looking to connect some of these acquisitions like Nutmeg with -- I can't even read all these, Kraft Analytics, MAXEX, C6 Bank, OpenInvest, 55ip?

傑里米，歡迎。我的問題，我想跟進。我想格倫問傑米這個問題的答案，所以我要再試一次。這些收購是你完成的嗎，我從去年 12 月算起 8 次，問題是，傑米，戰略是什麼？我猜，在某些情況下，策略是不是像 Jeremy 所說的那樣，是為了擾亂新市場？也許是為了避免成本，也許是為了擴大數千萬客戶的規模，或者，這是真正的問題，您是否希望將其中一些收購（如 Nutmeg）與 - 我什至無法閱讀所有這些，Kraft Analytics ，MAXEX，C6銀行，OpenInvest，55ip？

Is the goal to somehow 1 plus 1 plus 1 to equal more than 3 as you introduce these acquisitions, these companies, these people to each other to create kind of like a 21st century digital banking storefront? Or is that too much of a reach? What's the grand plan here?

當您介紹這些收購、這些公司、這些人相互創建類似於 21 世紀的數字銀行店面時，目標是否以某種方式 1 加 1 加 1 等於超過 3？或者是不是太過分了？這裡的宏偉計劃是什麼？

A little bit too much of a read, but there's very smart analysts who said it's a string of pearls, and I put in that category. So Asset Management, Campbell is just managing lumber assets. Timber assets is going to be a great thing for Asset Management. 55ip, it's a tax-efficient management to it there. Obviously, Nutmeg, and we're already doing it in the U.K., will be linked together, offering consumer digital product, both in deposits, small business, eventually lending and investments, global investing, et cetera, makes sense.

讀起來有點過頭了，但有非常聰明的分析師說這是一串珍珠，我把它歸為一類。所以資產管理，坎貝爾只是管理木材資產。木材資產對於資產管理來說將是一件好事。 55ip，這是一個節稅的管理。顯然，Nutmeg 和我們已經在英國開展的業務將聯繫在一起，在存款、小企業、最終貸款和投資、全球投資等方面提供消費者數字產品，這是有道理的。

C6 is another one. Jeremy said it's a huge market. So we're looking at anything which has adjacencies, it could be data, it could be management. A lot of these are going to fill in, and some are a little bit more of them will just come for us. So how we look at retail, digital overseas, we've got patience and time. And we're going to spend a lot of time to see if we can build something very different than we have in the United States.

C6 是另一個。 Jeremy 說這是一個巨大的市場。所以我們正在研究任何具有鄰接關係的東西，可能是數據，也可能是管理。其中很多會被填補，還有一些會為我們而來。因此，我們如何看待零售、海外數字化，我們有耐心和時間。我們將花費大量時間來看看我們是否可以建立與美國完全不同的東西。

And so it's a little bit of everything. The cxLoyalty or the travel company, again, if you look at that, we are already so large in the travel business. So think of this as enhanced services and our products and capabilities to work with our clients, travel packages, et cetera, which we already -- I've got to remember, the seventh largest travel company in the United States. And that doesn't include all the travel that goes across our credit card and debit card that's traveled, but we are going to travel -- effectively the travel agent.

所以這只是一點點。 cxLoyalty 或旅遊公司，再次，如果你看一下，我們在旅遊業務中已經如此龐大。因此，將其視為增強的服務以及我們與客戶、旅行套餐等合作的產品和能力，我們已經 - 我必須記住，美國第七大旅遊公司。這不包括通過我們的信用卡和借記卡旅行的所有旅行，但我們要旅行 - 實際上是旅行社。

And so it's a little bit of all that. I'm thrilled we're doing it. We're looking all the time. We're not going to end up with a lot of wasted assets. But some of these things may not work well, but that will be okay.

所以這只是一點點。我很高興我們正在這樣做。我們一直在尋找。我們不會以大量浪費的資產告終。但其中一些事情可能效果不佳，但沒關係。

Yes. Mike, the only thing I would add is, there's a couple of themes that you need to come through, some of the things that we've done recently, one of them is ESG. You see that especially in the AWM deals. And the other is just improving the customer experience, whether it's through various fintech deals or cxLoyalty, customer experience is a key priority for us. And we want to have all the tools necessary to deliver that.

是的。邁克，我唯一要補充的是，您需要了解幾個主題，我們最近所做的一些事情，其中之一是 ESG。您會在 AWM 交易中看到這一點。另一個只是改善客戶體驗，無論是通過各種金融科技交易還是 cxLoyalty，客戶體驗都是我們的重中之重。我們希望擁有實現這一目標所需的所有工具。

And equally important, we're putting a lot of money into building. And we have, like every quarter, through the next 2 years, you're going to have new products and new services being rolled out across the company. They just -- I think they're just exciting and very good, more and more integrated, more and more simple to use, more and more customer friendly, et cetera. And so -- but we're doing a little bit of all of that. And we want -- yes, sorry?

同樣重要的是，我們正在投入大量資金進行建設。就像每個季度一樣，在接下來的 2 年中，我們將在整個公司推出新產品和新服務。他們只是——我認為他們只是令人興奮並且非常好，越來越集成，越來越易於使用，越來越客戶友好，等等。所以 - 但我們正在做所有這些。我們想要——是的，對不起？

Go ahead, Mike.

來吧，邁克。

And -- I just got -- my follow-up, as you talked about disrupting, I thought that was interesting, disrupting in the U.K. But since you wrote your CEO letter, Jamie, I mean, it's only gotten more competitive from the fintechs and big tech and big retail and everybody else. And that's a question that comes up probably to everyone on this call.

而且 - 我剛剛得到 - 我的後續行動，當你談到顛覆時，我認為這很有趣，在英國發生顛覆。但自從你寫了 CEO 信之後，傑米，我的意思是，金融科技只會變得更有競爭力以及大科技、大零售和其他所有人。在本次電話會議上，每個人都可能會提出這個問題。

Are you going to be disintermediated over the next 5 years, whether it's -- you know all the companies, but it just seems like they're ramping up that much more. You have an executive order from the White House, maybe you have to share data. What's your current mark-to-market of the threat from outside of banking to your business?

在接下來的 5 年裡，你是否會被去中介化，無論是 - 你知道所有的公司，但看起來他們正在加速發展。你有白宮的行政命令，也許你必須分享數據。您當前對銀行業以外對您業務的威脅的市值是多少？

Yes. I don't see any different thing when I wrote Jim a letter. I think we have huge competition in banking and shadow banking, fintech and big tech and now, Walmart. And obviously, there's always a changing landscape, but we also have a huge -- we've got brands and capability and products and services and market share and profitability.

是的。當我給吉姆寫信時，我沒有看到任何不同的東西。我認為我們在銀行業和影子銀行、金融科技和大型科技領域存在著巨大的競爭，現在還有沃爾瑪。顯然，環境總是在變化，但我們也有一個巨大的——我們擁有品牌、能力、產品和服務、市場份額和盈利能力。

I think some of these competitors are going to do quite well. I think a lot of them will succeed over time. But that's called good old American capitalism. I'm quite comfortable we'll do fine. I do think there's going to be a lot of people still in the banking business. I'm talking over 5 or 10 or 15 years. I think one day you're going to recall which one who took a shadow bank or, I mean, the banks who will shadow -- will be shadows themselves.

我認為其中一些競爭對手會做得很好。我認為他們中的很多人會隨著時間的推移而成功。但這被稱為古老的美國資本主義。我很舒服，我們會做得很好。我確實認為仍有很多人從事銀行業務。我說的是 5 年或 10 年或 15 年。我想有一天你會回想起哪一個誰拿走了影子銀行，或者，我的意思是，那些將影子銀行——將成為影子本身。

Yes. We're working hard to make sure that we're offering services that are not disruptible because they're good. So if our clients are happy, and we're providing them a great experience, then there's nothing to disrupt.

是的。我們正在努力確保我們提供的服務不會因為它們很好而被中斷。因此，如果我們的客戶感到滿意，並且我們正在為他們提供出色的體驗，那麼就沒有什麼可以破壞的。

Our next question is coming from the line of Ebrahim Poonawala from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

我們的下一個問題來自美銀美林的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

I guess just sticking with the digital strategy. We heard Jamie talk about multiple times around the lack of imagination that cost the banking industry in terms of either payments or buy now pay later, and you talked about your international expansion.

我想只是堅持數字戰略。我們多次聽到 Jamie 談到缺乏想像力，這使銀行業在付款或現在購買後付款方面付出了代價，您還談到了您的國際擴張。

But again, going back to Mike's point, as shareholders of banks in the U.S., should the expectation be that banks will be fast followers of what fintech comes up with and replicating that, given the risk of cannibalizing your own sort of revenue set? Or do we expect, or do you think we should expect, more disruptive innovation coming from banks in the United States on Consumer Banking?

但是，再次回到邁克的觀點，作為美國銀行的股東，考慮到蠶食你自己的收入組合的風險，是否應該期望銀行將成為金融科技提出的快速追隨者並複制它？或者我們是否期待，或者您認為我們應該期待美國的銀行在消費者銀行業務方面出現更具顛覆性的創新？

I think it's both. I mean, it's not an either/or question. And remember, a lot of these banks have done quite well. Clearly, Bank of America has done quite well in digital products and stuff like that. So when I said the lack of imagination with the whole company, I mean, when you look at some of these things, it was -- we could have imagined more why they've become the competitor down the road.

我認為兩者兼而有之。我的意思是，這不是一個非此即彼的問題。請記住，這些銀行中的很多都做得很好。顯然，美國銀行在數字產品和類似產品方面做得很好。所以當我說整個公司缺乏想像力時，我的意思是，當你看到其中一些事情時，我們可以更多地想像為什麼他們會成為未來的競爭對手。

So some of these competitors are quite good. I call it bobbing and weaving. They start with one little thing. They have product, they have services, they have eyeballs, they had customers, and they find ways to monetize it. So we've got to be a little more forward-looking in how they're looking at the active guys and stuff like that. But in our case, there'll be a little bit of everything.

因此，其中一些競爭對手相當不錯。我稱之為擺動和編織。他們從一件小事開始。他們有產品，他們有服務，他們有眼球，他們有客戶，他們找到了將其貨幣化的方法。所以我們必須在他們如何看待活躍的人之類的事情上更具前瞻性。但在我們的例子中，一切都會有一點點。

Yes. And I would just say the whole like cannibalization and fast following thing, I think we've moved a little bit beyond that. Like there will be times where we have the first idea, and we're eager to lean in and innovate that way. There will be times when someone else has the first idea, and we're eagerly copying it.

是的。我只想說整體就像蠶食和快速追隨的事情，我認為我們已經超越了一點。就像有時我們有第一個想法一樣，我們渴望以這種方式進行創新。有時別人有第一個想法，我們急切地複制它。

But the whole, "Oh, we don't want to do this thing that makes sense with the customer because we might be cannibalizing our own revenues," that's a recipe to become a shadow of your former self, as Jamie said.

但總體而言，“哦，我們不想做對客戶有意義的事情，因為我們可能會蠶食我們自己的收入，”正如 Jamie 所說，這是一個讓你成為以前自己的影子的秘訣。

Yes. There is no fun cannibalizing your revenue, just keep that in mind. We will do the right thing when the time comes. And sometimes, we're a day late, a dollar short, but we'll do the right thing.

是的。蠶食您的收入並沒有什麼樂趣，請記住這一點。時機成熟時，我們會做正確的事。有時，我們遲到了一天，少了一美元，但我們會做正確的事。

And just if you look at the company, I mean, if you look at -- we talked about SLR, and I mean, I always get you talk about CECL and SLR, but look at the flows across this company. Look at the debit card, the credit card, the trading flows, the market share, the -- that's why I look at much more than what are the ups and downs to the earnings this quarter because of CECL. I don't think that means anything for the future of the company.

如果你看看這家公司，我的意思是，如果你看看——我們談到了 SLR，我的意思是，我總是讓你談論 CECL 和 SLR，但看看這家公司的流動情況。看看借記卡、信用卡、交易流、市場份額，這就是為什麼我看的遠不止是因為 CECL 而導致本季度收益的起伏。我認為這對公司的未來沒有任何意義。

I mean, our bankers, our traders, our credit card, our debit card, our merchant services, our auto business, our digital, it's -- they're all doing pretty good. I read -- I look at these reports, and my God, the company is doing quite fine. And yes, and we'd like to be a little critical of ourselves. I think when companies aren't, that's part of their failure. They should look at what they didn't do well, I mean, what others may have done well, and so I'd be prepared. And we have a really fair assessment of the competition. It is very large, and it's going to be very tough. It does not mean that JPMorgan will win, it just means our eyes are open.

我的意思是，我們的銀行家、我們的交易員、我們的信用卡、我們的借記卡、我們的商業服務、我們的汽車業務、我們的數字業務——他們都做得很好。我讀了——我看了這些報告，我的上帝，這家公司做得很好。是的，我們想對自己有點挑剔。我認為當公司不這樣做時，這是他們失敗的一部分。他們應該看看他們做得不好的地方，我的意思是，別人可能做得好的地方，所以我會做好準備。我們對比賽的評估非常公平。它非常大，而且會非常艱難。這並不意味著摩根大通會贏，這只是意味著我們睜大了眼睛。

No, and I agree. And I think banks don't do -- talk enough about client acquisitions and market share. So I agree with you there. Just as a follow-up, Jamie, very quickly. There's some questions around like peak inflation, peak growth. I know you guys are very bullish. Compare and contrast how the world looks to you today versus back in 2011 when we came out of the financial crisis and the risk of GDP growth disappointing over the next few years.

不，我同意。而且我認為銀行沒有這樣做 - 談論客戶收購和市場份額。所以我同意你的觀點。作為後續行動，傑米，很快。有一些問題，比如通脹峰值、增長峰值。我知道你們非常樂觀。比較和對比今天的世界與 2011 年我們走出金融危機時的世界，以及未來幾年 GDP 增長令人失望的風險。

I think they're completely different fundamentally. Coming out of the '09 crisis, okay, the world was massively overleveraged. We had investment banks at 40x leverage, not JPMorgan. We did not need PARP and didn't need help. The Lehman, Baird, Goldman, Morgan, you had banks overseas, Dexia, the Landon Banks, but I can't remember half of them, all went bankrupt.

我認為它們從根本上是完全不同的。從 09 年的危機中走出來，好吧，世界被過度槓桿化了。我們有 40 倍槓桿的投資銀行，而不是摩根大通。我們不需要 PARP，也不需要幫助。雷曼、貝爾德、高盛、摩根，你在海外有銀行，德夏，蘭登銀行，但我不記得有一半，都破產了。

You had hedge funds deleveraging, you had quant funds deleveraging, you had $0.5 trillion to $1 trillion in mortgage losses that were going to be recognized, actual losses spread around balance sheets and derivatives and stuff like that. So the world was in a massive deleveraging mode. The consumers overleveraged, companies overleveraged. The bridge book of Wall Street was $400 billion. Today, it's, I think, $60 billion.

你有對沖基金去槓桿化，你有量化基金去槓桿化，你有 0.5 萬億到 1 萬億美元的抵押貸款損失將被確認，實際損失分佈在資產負債表和衍生品以及類似的東西上。因此，世界處於大規模的去槓桿化模式。消費者過度槓桿化，企業過度槓桿化。華爾街的過橋賬簿是 4000 億美元。今天，我認為是 600 億美元。

So yes, if you look at today, today, everything we talk about loans being down, if the consumer is -- the pump is primed. The consumer, their house value is up, their stocks rise up, their incomes are up, their savings are up, their confidence are up. The pandemic is kind of in the rearview mirror. Hopefully, nothing gets worse with it.

所以是的，如果你看今天，今天，我們談論的所有貸款都在下降，如果消費者是 - 泵已經啟動。消費者，他們的房價上漲了，他們的股票上漲了，他們的收入增加了，他們的儲蓄增加了，他們的信心增加了。大流行有點像後視鏡。希望沒有什麼變得更糟。

And they're raring to go. And you see it in home prices, you see it in auto purchases. You see it -- I mean, they'd be much higher, but for supply constraints right now. And so -- and businesses equally are in good shape. They're not overleveraged today. They do have a lot of charts show that corporate debt is like higher than it was, but so is corporate cash.

他們急於離開。你在房價中看到它，在汽車購買中看到它。你看 - 我的意思是，他們會更高，但現在供應限制。所以 - 企業同樣處於良好狀態。他們今天沒有過度槓桿化。他們確實有很多圖表顯示公司債務比以前高，但公司現金也是如此。

And if you look at middle market losses, it's almost 0, almost 0, a huge unutilized revolving stuff like that. So the second the economy starts to grow, which -- and I mean, as you're going to see loans go up because of inventory receivables and capital expenditures and stuff like that. So it is completely different.

如果你看看中間市場的損失，它幾乎是 0，幾乎是 0，像這樣一個巨大的未利用的旋轉東西。所以第二次經濟開始增長，這 - 我的意思是，由於應收庫存和資本支出以及類似的東西，你會看到貸款增加。所以它是完全不同的。

And you've got fiscal policy on autopilot. I mean there's a lot that hasn't been spent yet. There's a lot more that's going to be passed. And you have QE. So far, it's a little bit on the positive, too. I think, around [$20 million, $30 million] a month. And I just think you're going to see -- hopefully, see a very strong economy. We don't know how long.

你有自動駕駛的財政政策。我的意思是還有很多東西還沒有用完。還有很多事情要過去。你有量化寬鬆。到目前為止，這也有點積極。我認為，每月大約 [2000 萬美元，3000 萬美元]。我只是認為你會看到 - 希望看到非常強勁的經濟。我們不知道要多久。

Obviously, if you listened to what I just said, that -- there's a little inflationary effect on that. And we don't know in the future -- I talked about Goldilocks. Goldilocks means -- it's I'm hopeful, not predicting. Like Goldilocks is that inflation goes up, the 10-year bond goes up, the growth is still quite strong. You may have growth in the second half this year as stronger than it's ever been in the United States of America, okay?

顯然，如果你聽了我剛才所說的話，那 - 有一點通貨膨脹的影響。我們不知道未來——我談到了金發姑娘。 Goldilocks 的意思是——我充滿希望，而不是預測。就像金發姑娘一樣，通貨膨脹上升，10年期債券上升，增長仍然相當強勁。今年下半年的增長可能比美國的任何時候都要強勁，好嗎？

And Europe is probably 6 months behind America. And so growth can go into next year, and then the 10-year bond goes to 3% and a lot of growth, the short base grew, too. It won't make any difference because we always had strong growth in consumer there. Jobs are plentiful, wages are going up. These are all good things.

歐洲可能比美國落後 6 個月。所以增長可以進入明年，然後 10 年期債券達到 3% 並且增長很多，空頭基數也增長了。這不會有任何區別，因為我們在那裡的消費者總是有強勁的增長。工作很豐富，工資也在上漲。這些都是好事。

And so, yes, obviously, if the inflation could be worse than people think. I think it will be a little bit worse with the bad things. I don't think it's all going to be temporary, but that doesn't matter if we have very strong growth.

所以，是的，很明顯，如果通貨膨脹可能比人們想像的更糟。我認為壞事會變得更糟。我不認為這一切都是暫時的，但如果我們有非常強勁的增長，這並不重要。

Yes. There are always risks in any environment, but the risks in this one, I think, are quite different from the ones that we had coming out of the global financial crisis.

是的。任何環境都存在風險，但我認為，這個環境的風險與我們從全球金融危機中走出的風險大不相同。

Our next question is coming from the line of Steven Chubak from Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Steven Chubak。

So I wanted to just start off with just a follow-up question on Card NII. Jeremy, you did strike an optimistic tone on the higher spend trends and the potential for future NII tailwind as payment rates start to normalize. And just looking at the card revenue rate, given there are another of inputs in that metric, I was hoping you could just help us isolate the potential NII benefit versus the current baseline from a normalization in payment rate. So just the payment rate normalizing, what would be the incremental step-up in the quarterly NII run rate?

所以我想從關於 Card NII 的後續問題開始。傑里米，隨著支付率開始正常化，您確實對更高的支出趨勢和未來 NII 順風的潛力持樂觀態度。只看信用卡收入率，鑑於該指標中有另一個輸入，我希望你能幫助我們將潛在的 NII 收益與當前基線與支付率的正常化隔離開來。所以只是支付率正常化，季度 NII 運行率的增量是多少？

Okay. So there's a lot of pieces in that question, Steven. So first, let's talk about the revenue rate. So a couple of things. So in terms of the NII, we don't really see a meaningful uptick in Card NII happening this year. Like you might maybe see a tiny bit of it sequentially fourth quarter versus third quarter, but I think it's going to be pretty hard to see. So I think you want to be thinking about that as a 2022 effect.

好的。所以這個問題有很多內容，史蒂文。所以首先，讓我們談談收入率。所以有幾件事。因此，就 NII 而言，我們並沒有真正看到 Card NII 今年出現有意義的上升。就像您可能會在第四季度與第三季度連續看到一點點，但我認為這將很難看到。因此，我認為您想將其視為 2022 年效應。

I'm not going to get into guiding on revenue rate for 2022. And I will actually point out that we're in the market right now competing aggressively with some great offers. And I'm happy to say, actually, the client acquisition in Card is going great, and we're seeing great uptake on the offers. But that comes with a bit of elevated marketing expense. So as I look out to next quarter, you might actually see a bit of a dip in the revenue rate just because of the way the accounting works there.

我不打算指導 2022 年的收入率。實際上我會指出，我們現在在市場上與一些很棒的報價進行激烈競爭。而且我很高興地說，實際上，Card 的客戶獲取進展順利，我們看到這些報價的接受度很高。但這會帶來一些高昂的營銷費用。因此，當我展望下個季度時，您實際上可能會看到收入率略有下降，僅僅是因為那裡的會計工作方式。

Okay. And for my follow-up, Jeremy, I just wanted to ask or at least hone in on one comment you made, where you said you could potentially still manage to a 12% capital target. I was just trying to better understand how much capital cushion you are looking to manage to under the SEB? And if the GSIB surcharge is not recalibrated, where do you think you'll have to run on a steady-state basis just because it feels like waiting for Godot, where you haven't seen any changes on the recalibration front, specifically with the GSIB surcharge?

好的。對於我的後續行動，傑里米，我只是想問一下或至少對你發表的一條評論進行評論，你說你仍然有可能達到 12% 的資本目標。我只是想更好地了解您希望在 SEB 下管理多少資本緩衝？如果沒有重新校準 GSIB 附加費，您認為您必須在哪裡運行，只是因為感覺就像在等待 Godot，您在重新校準方面沒有看到任何變化，特別是與GSIB 附加費？

Yes. Okay. So basically, that's a question about the management buffer and a question about what we would do in a world where GSIB doesn't get recalibrated. And a world where GSIB doesn't get recalibrated is a world where our capital minimums are quite a bit higher starting in 2023.

是的。好的。所以基本上，這是一個關於管理緩衝區的問題，也是一個關於我們在沒有重新校準 GSIB 的世界中會做什麼的問題。從 2023 年開始，GSIB 沒有得到重新校準的世界是我們的最低資本要求相當高的世界。

We obviously disagree with that. We don't think it makes any sense at all, given that a big part of the driver of that increase in the amount of capital that we would have, and as Jamie pointed out earlier, both we and the system are really flushed with capital. And the regulators have been pretty clear that there's enough capital in the system right now, and that growth would increase that amount quite a bit for us and for everyone else.

我們顯然不同意這一點。我們認為這根本沒有任何意義，因為我們將擁有的資本數量增加的很大一部分驅動因素，正如傑米早些時候指出的那樣，我們和系統都真的充斥著資本.監管機構已經非常清楚，現在系統中有足夠的資本，而且增長會為我們和其他所有人增加相當多的資金。

So that's a big part of the reason why we've been so vocal for so long about the need to recalibrate that. And I think we see some of our competitors making those points, too, as they start to creep up into higher buckets.

所以這就是為什麼我們這麼長時間以來一直在大聲疾呼需要重新校準它的一個重要原因。而且我認為我們看到我們的一些競爭對手也取得了這些分數，因為他們開始爬升到更高的級別。

And to be fair, the Fed has acknowledged that this is a thing that used to get fixed. It's just that they're kind of busy trying to get the Basel III end game put in place in the U.S. rules, which brings particular complexities in light of the Collins floor.

公平地說，美聯儲已經承認這是一個過去可以解決的問題。只是他們有點忙著試圖讓巴塞爾 III 結束遊戲在美國規則中到位，鑑於柯林斯地板，這帶來了特別的複雜性。

Can I just add to this? So I've always -- like the GSIB calculation is one of the steepest I've ever seen in my whole life. And then we doubled it here. So the European banks have a lot of disadvantages in terms of -- they don't -- they can't calm the regulators, they can't expand across Europe.

我可以添加這個嗎？所以我一直 - 就像 GSIB 計算是我一生中見過的最陡峭的計算之一。然後我們在這裡加倍。因此，歐洲銀行有很多劣勢——它們沒有——它們無法安撫監管機構，它們無法在整個歐洲擴張。

But one of the advantages, they have pretty much half the GSIB. But I just don't think that, in the long run, that's good -- right for America to be doubling in -- what I could consider basing all the potential numbers. So let's just wait to see what all the new rules are, and then we'll answer that question. You don't have to sit there and guess what the what's going to happen.

但其中一項優勢是，它們幾乎擁有 GSIB 的一半。但我只是不認為，從長遠來看，這是好事——美國加倍參與——我可以考慮基於所有潛在數字。所以讓我們等著看所有新規則是什麼，然後我們會回答這個問題。您不必坐在那裡猜測會發生什麼。

Yes. And I think you see the important point is that, in the near term, we're actually bound by leverage. So that's what we're focused on right now. That's our biggest single thing that we'd like to see fixed because that is affecting the management of the balance sheet right now in ways that we think really don't make sense and eventually result in higher costs that will get passed on into the real economy.

是的。而且我認為你看到了重要的一點是，在短期內，我們實際上受到了槓桿的約束。所以這就是我們現在所關注的。這是我們希望看到的最大的單一問題，因為這正在以我們認為真的沒有意義的方式影響資產負債表的管理，並最終導致更高的成本將轉嫁到現實中經濟。

Just to touch on your buffer point briefly. When all is said and done and the framework is fully settled, hopefully, we're back to being bound by risk-based constraints. We have a bit more experience with a couple of years of SCB and there's a little bit less rule uncertainty. It would be -- there's an interesting conversation to have about what the right management buffers are for people in a world where we do think it's important.

只是簡單地觸及你的緩衝點。當一切都說完並且框架完全確定時，希望我們回到基於風險的約束條件的約束。我們在 SCB 工作了幾年的經驗更加豐富，規則的不確定性也少了一點。這將是 - 在我們認為重要的世界中，對於人們來說正確的管理緩衝是什麼，有一個有趣的對話。

And we've made these points to destigmatize the use of buffers. We've made this point in the context, for example, of the money market complex, too. We have all these kind of guidelines. And the rules have them as buffers that you're supposedly free to use, but that's not the way everyone treats them.

我們提出這些觀點是為了消除緩衝區的使用。例如，我們也在貨幣市場綜合體的背景下提出了這一點。我們有所有這些指導方針。規則將它們作為緩衝區，你應該可以自由使用，但這不是每個人對待它們的方式。

So buffers become minimums, and that adds a brittleness to the system that makes it more procyclical than anyone wants it to be. So down the road, when things are stable, the buffer discussion could become interesting. But right now, it's a somewhat simpler story, and that's really the SLR.

因此，緩衝成為最低限度，這增加了系統的脆弱性，使其比任何人都希望它更具順週期性。因此，當事情穩定下來時，緩衝區討論可能會變得有趣。但現在，這是一個更簡單的故事，那就是單反。

And remember, there's one buffer that you guys -- we don't really talk about, which is $40 billion of pretax earnings a year, okay? That's a huge buffer. It's huge. It allows you to change your forward-looking capital if you buy back stock and don't buy back stock. And so we have a lot of levers. And whatever happens, we're going to figure out a way to do a great job for shareholders.

請記住，你們有一個緩衝——我們並沒有真正談論過，即每年 400 億美元的稅前收入，好嗎？這是一個巨大的緩衝區。它超大。如果您回購股票而不回購股票，它允許您更改您的前瞻性資本。所以我們有很多槓桿。無論發生什麼，我們都會想辦法為股東做好事。

Our next question is coming from the line from Matt O'Connor from Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Matt O'Connor。

I want to circle back on costs. Obviously, this year, some of it is driven by the stronger-than-expected fees. Some of it is the inflationary pressures you mentioned. Some is, I think, discretionary, as you've pointed out in the past, accelerating some investment spend.

我想回到成本上。顯然，今年，其中一些是由強於預期的費用推動的。其中一些是你提到的通脹壓力。正如您過去指出的那樣，我認為有些是可自由支配的，加速了一些投資支出。

But the question is, as we exit this year, when we look back on costs from 2021 and say they're a little bloated because of all those factors? Or is this going to be a good base year to grow off of going forward?

但問題是，當我們今年退出時，當我們回顧 2021 年的成本並說由於所有這些因素而變得有些臃腫時？或者這將是一個很好的基準年，可以繼續向前發展？

Okay. So there's a couple of points in there. There's -- the word -- let's talk about bloated. I mean you've heard Jamie talk about cost before, right? So we go after everything all the time. We go after waste. We try very hard to never be loaded and to not waste. That is a constant discipline. It's hard work. We look for it everywhere.

好的。所以這裡有幾點。有——這個詞——讓我們談談臃腫。我的意思是你以前聽過傑米談論成本，對吧？所以我們一直追求一切。我們追求浪費。我們非常努力地不被加載，不浪費。那是一個恆常的紀律。這是一項艱苦的工作。我們到處尋找它。

So I would like to say that bloated is not a word we would ever use to describe ourselves. And we spent a bunch of time in the bowels of this organization, I really don't think that, that's true. And I don't think anything about what we're doing in terms of how money is being spent this year is wasteful.

所以我想說，臃腫不是我們用來形容自己的詞。我們花了很多時間在這個組織的內部，我真的不這麼認為，這是真的。而且我不認為我們在今年花錢的方式方面所做的任何事情都是浪費的。

And in fact, as you know, the really big driver of the kind of impact on run rate spend is the investments that we're making, especially investments in technology and customer experience, and then transforming the core efficiency of the company in terms of things like technology, modernization and data centers and so on.

事實上，如您所知，對運行率支出產生影響的真正重要驅動因素是我們正在進行的投資，尤其是在技術和客戶體驗方面的投資，然後在以下方面轉變公司的核心效率比如技術、現代化和數據中心等等。

So in terms of projecting forward into 2022, I don't want to get into giving 2022 expense guidance here. And I think that you really have to unpack that cost number between the parts of it that are volume and revenue-related and the kind of more run rate, structural and investment costs, as we've talked about before. So I think this year is -- it's a little bit tricky to unpack the components from their perspective to project them to match...

因此，就 2022 年的預測而言，我不想在這裡給出 2022 年的費用指導。而且我認為你真的必須在與數量和收入相關的部分以及更多的運行率、結構和投資成本之間解開成本數字，正如我們之前談到的那樣。所以我認為今年 - 從他們的角度解開組件以將它們投影到匹配有點棘手......

And if we can find more good money to spend, we're going to spend it. And I told you guys that there's good expense. When we have credit card to spend, we have so much money in marketing, the returns are very good, and they spend it. If we can open hire great bankers, or stuff like that, we're going to spend it. If we can -- where we spend $200 million in new data centers, which have a huge benefit for us down the road, we're going to spend it.

如果我們能找到更多好錢花，我們就會花掉。我告訴你們，費用很高。當我們有信用卡可以消費的時候，我們有很多錢在營銷上，回報很好，他們就花掉了。如果我們可以聘請優秀的銀行家或類似的東西，我們就會花錢。如果可以的話——我們在新的數據中心上花費 2 億美元，這對我們未來有巨大的好處，我們將花費它。

We do not manage the company so we could tell analysts what the expense number is going to be. That is just a bad way to run a company. And conversely, a lot of revenue stuff, too. Revenues aren't always good. And we all know how much risk we take in these businesses and stuff like that. So we spend a lot of time in good revenue, bad revenue and good expense and debt expense. And that's what's going to drive the franchise in the next 5 or 10 years.

我們不管理公司，所以我們可以告訴分析師費用數字是多少。這只是經營公司的一種糟糕方式。相反，也有很多收入。收入並不總是好的。我們都知道我們在這些業務和類似的事情上承擔了多大的風險。因此，我們將大量時間花在好收入、壞收入、好支出和債務支出上。這就是在未來 5 或 10 年內推動特許經營的原因。

Understood. And then separately, as we think about capital allocation kind of longer term, is there a thought to more meaningfully increase the dividend payout? I mean, as you saw at the beginning of the COVID crisis, buybacks were suspended after stocks dropped sharply, banks couldn't repurchase until they roughly doubled. But dividends were maintained.

明白了。然後，當我們考慮長期資本配置時，是否有更有意義地增加股息支付的想法？我的意思是，正如你在 COVID 危機開始時看到的那樣，在股票大幅下跌後暫停回購，銀行在大約翻倍之前無法回購。但股息得以維持。

And obviously, your pretax earnings power that you alluded to is very strong. It seems like that soft 30% cap is gone, obviously. So just thoughts, it's not going to happen all in maybe one CCAR cycle, but if we do get a multiyear economic recovery, is your thoughts of pushing the dividend higher maybe closer to like a 50% payout?

顯然，您提到的您的稅前收益能力非常強大。顯然，30% 的軟上限似乎消失了。所以只是想一想，這可能不會在一個 CCAR 週期內全部發生，但如果我們確實實現了多年的經濟復甦，您是否認為將股息推高可能接近 50% 的派息？

Probably not. I mean, I think, firstly, we wanted the dividend which is sustainable through a bad downturn, and so we really want to do that. And I think this time kind of proves that. It was a very minor thing relative to capital retention. But yes, we want to invest in our future and invest in growing and stuff like that. And if we can't -- and we don't want to raise the dividend so high that it cripples your ability to do other things.

可能不是。我的意思是，我認為，首先，我們想要在嚴重的經濟衰退中可持續的紅利，所以我們真的很想這樣做。我認為這一次證明了這一點。相對於資本保留而言，這是一件非常微不足道的事情。但是，是的，我們想投資於我們的未來，投資於增長之類的東西。如果我們不能——而且我們不想將股息提高到如此之高，以至於削弱你做其他事情的能力。

Yes. And the way that flows into just capital buffer sort of makes that point clear, right? So every -- part of the reason that we're at 3.2 instead of 3.1 is the $0.10 increase that the Board announced its intention to do. So...

是的。流入資本緩衝的方式清楚地表明了這一點，對嗎？因此，我們在 3.2 而不是 3.1 的每個 - 部分原因是董事會宣布打算增加 0.10 美元。所以...

And if I owned 100% of the company, there would be no dividend.

如果我擁有公司 100% 的股份，就不會有股息。

The next question is coming from the line of Gerard Cassidy from RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Gerard Cassidy。

Can you guys share with us -- if you take a look at your net interest margin in the quarter, obviously, it came under pressure. And if we assume -- and I know this is a big assumption, but if we assume that rates don't really change from here over the next 6 to 12 months, the long end stays anchored where it is, at what point does the average yield in your average interest-earning assets start to stabilize or maybe go up because the new business that you're putting on equals or exceeds what's running off in terms of interest rates on the products that are coming off the balance sheet?

你們能否與我們分享一下——如果你看一下本季度的淨息差，顯然它面臨壓力。如果我們假設——我知道這是一個很大的假設，但如果我們假設利率在接下來的 6 到 12 個月內並沒有真正從這裡發生變化，那麼長期利率會保持在原來的水平，那麼您的平均生息資產的平均收益率開始趨於穩定或可能上升，因為您開展的新業務等於或超過資產負債表外產品的利率水平？

Yes. Good question, Gerard. So I mean, I guess, one way to think about your question is whether we basically think that NIM has hit the bottom in this quarter. And I think we've all learned the lesson that calling the bottom is a very dangerous thing.

是的。好問題，杰拉德。所以我的意思是，我想，思考你的問題的一種方法是，我們是否基本上認為 NIM 在本季度已經觸底。而且我認為我們都已經吸取了教訓，即觸底是一件非常危險的事情。

And I would also point out, and I would direct you to like the last page of our supplement, I'm not going to give you a big speech on Market NII, which is my favorite topic and why that is really a sort of a distraction that we shouldn't look at. Maybe I'll be able to do that next quarter. But we do have that disclosure where we split out total NII and markets NII as well as NIM excluding markets.

我還要指出，我會指導你喜歡我們補充的最後一頁，我不會給你一個關於 Market NII 的大型演講，這是我最喜歡的話題，為什麼這真的是一種我們不應該看的分心。也許我下個季度就能做到。但我們確實有這樣的披露，我們將總 NII 和市場 NII 以及不包括市場的 NIM 分開。

And the reason I raised that is that, yes, if your overall mental model is not wrong, it's reasonable to think that NIM might stabilize around these levels. But it's noisy, and the market numbers in there, and that's going to add noise.

我提出這個問題的原因是，是的，如果你的整體心智模型沒有錯，那麼認為 NIM 可能會穩定在這些水平附近是合理的。但它很吵，那裡有市場數據，這會增加噪音。

And also, I would say right now, there's an unusual amount of numerator, denominator-type effects. So whatever winds up being proved up the numerator, you also have quite a bit of volatility in the denominator there, which is one of the reasons that we obviously don't manage to that number as you've heard us say before. But your overall frame, it sounds reasonable to me.

而且，我現在要說的是，分子、分母類型的影響非常多。因此，無論分子最終被證明是什麼，你的分母也有相當大的波動，這就是我們顯然無法達到這個數字的原因之一，正如你之前聽到我們所說的那樣。但是你的整體框架，對我來說聽起來很合理。

Very good. And then as a follow-up, and I may have misheard you, so correct me if I'm wrong, but I think you said that the higher level of noninterest expense, the outlook that is, was really driven by the improved outlook for noninterest income. Can you give us any color on that part of it, the outlook for noninterest income improvement?

很好。然後作為後續行動，我可能聽錯了，如果我錯了，請糾正我，但我認為你說更高水平的非利息支出，即前景，實際上是由改善前景驅動的非利息收入。您能否就這部分內容，即非利息收入改善的前景給我們提供任何顏色？

Well, it's -- I mean some of it's in naturals, and some of it's in the outlook. But at a high level, the point is simply that, if you look at the mix of revenue across this company, we have some offsetting dynamics right now. We've got NII headwinds from the Consumer delevering, as we've discussed.

嗯，它是——我的意思是其中一些是自然的，一些是前景中的。但在高層次上，重點很簡單，如果你看看這家公司的收入組合，我們現在有一些抵消的動力。正如我們所討論的，我們從消費者去槓桿化中遇到了 NII 逆風。

But as you saw in this quarter's CIB and AWM results, we had exceptional performance in banking even though -- and in wealth management. And even though Markets is down year-on-year, it's actually up significantly from what we expect. (technical difficulty) higher expense guidance. So that's kind of how it all comes together.

但正如您在本季度的 CIB 和 AWM 業績中所看到的那樣，我們在銀行業以及財富管理方面的表現都非常出色。儘管市場同比下降，但實際上比我們預期的要高得多。 （技術難度）較高的費用指導。這就是這一切如何結合在一起的。

You want some of these expenses to go up because that means that good revenues are going up.

您希望其中一些費用增加，因為這意味著良好的收入正在增加。

Indeed.

確實。

Our next question is coming from the line of Betsy Graseck from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。

I had a couple of questions. One was just on thinking through the outlook for NII, like you indicated, $52.5 billion subject to market conditions. Can you just give us a sense as to how you're thinking about market conditions? What's the trigger point for being maybe better than expected versus coming down?

我有幾個問題。一個只是考慮 NII 的前景，就像你所說的，525 億美元取決於市場條件。您能否讓我們了解一下您對市場狀況的看法？可能好於預期而不是下降的觸發點是什麼？

And I ask in context of -- I noticed your securities book, you shifted a bunch from AFS to HTM. So it feels like, from that, you're waiting more for rates to move up materially before you would lean into that yield curve trade. But maybe you can give us a sense as to what that market conditions comment was referring to and how you're thinking about that?

我問的是——我注意到你的證券書，你把一堆從 AFS 轉移到了 HTM。所以感覺就像，從那以後，在你傾向於收益率曲線交易之前，你正在等待更多的利率大幅上漲。但是，也許您可以讓我們了解一下市場狀況評論所指的內容以及您對此的看法？

Sure. So let's go through that for a second. So I said I wasn't going to give my big markets NII speech until next quarter, but I can't resist. So if you talk about market conditions, the Markets NII component of that NII outlook includes things like the extent to which we have spec pools versus TBA is the extent to which we have futures versus cash and high rate companies like Brazil, the growth in prime brokerage balances.

當然。所以讓我們來看看它。所以我說直到下個季度我才會在大市場 NII 上發表演講，但我無法抗拒。因此，如果您談論市場狀況，那麼 NII 前景中的 Markets NII 部分包括諸如我們擁有規範池與 TBA 的程度、我們擁有期貨與現金以及巴西等高利率公司的程度、主要資產的增長經紀餘額。

The common theme across all of these is there are situations where you're deploying balance sheet in your Markets business to serve clients, and that's profitable a deployment on a spread basis. But there's quite a bit of gross up between the kind of nonderivative piece of it and a derivative or derivative, I'd like a piece of it. Where are the of derivative piece of it doesn't have any NII, and the nonderivative piece of it does.

所有這些的共同主題是，在某些情況下，您在市場業務中部署資產負債表以服務客戶，而在價差基礎上進行部署是有利可圖的。但是在它的非衍生部分和衍生或衍生部分之間有相當大的差異，我想要它的一部分。它的衍生部分在哪裡沒有任何NII，它的非衍生部分有。

So every unit of that sort of activity that you do creates a significant swing in the NII number, either up or down, with very little impact to the bottom line. Now that's not the entirety of the Markets story. There are parts of the Markets business where we're actually doing more...

因此，您所做的此類活動的每一個單元都會在 NII 數字上產生顯著的波動，無論是向上還是向下，對底線的影響都非常小。現在這還不是市場故事的全部。在市場業務的某些部分，我們實際上做得更多……

I think he meant the market, not the Markets business.

我認為他指的是市場，而不是市場業務。

No, I know. But part of the Markets spending comment is the market-dependent -- I don't have Markets with me, so I'll go to the other point in a second, and I'm almost done with the speech. Anyway, you get the point. So that's one point of fluctuation.

不，我知道。但市場支出評論的一部分是依賴於市場的——我沒有市場，所以我將在一秒鐘內轉到另一點，我幾乎完成了演講。無論如何，你明白了。所以這是一個波動點。

But going to your other piece, so the AFS, HTM, and I think your implied question, which is basically what would make us want to deploy more into a higher rate environment. So I will say that the AFS, HTM changes that you've seen are really just primarily about managing capital across the various constraints while preserving the right level of flexibility to do deployment.

但是轉到您的另一篇文章，AFS、HTM 以及我認為您隱含的問題，這基本上是使我們想要將更多部署到更高速率的環境中的原因。所以我會說，您所看到的 AFS、HTM 更改實際上主要是關於跨各種約束管理資本，同時保持適當的部署靈活性水平。

But given the level of cash balances right now, the AFS, HTM, those have really remain constrained in terms of duration buys. And I think we have enough flexibility in there to do kind of short-end cash deployment tactically as we always do.

但鑑於目前的現金餘額水平，AFS，HTM，這些在期限購買方面確實仍然受到限制。而且我認為我們在那裡有足夠的靈活性，可以像往常一樣在戰術上進行短期現金部署。

So to get to the punchline, it's kind of what we said before, which is we're bullish on the economy. We believe that, that comes with higher inflation and, therefore, higher rates. And in light of that, we're happy to be patient right now. When that actually changes, and we decided to deploy more, you'll see it in the future.

因此，要說到點睛之筆，就像我們之前所說的那樣，我們看好經濟。我們認為，這會帶來更高的通脹，因此也會帶來更高的利率。鑑於此，我們很高興現在能保持耐心。當實際情況發生變化並且我們決定部署更多時，您將在未來看到它。

And giving a simple answer to that, the $52.5 billion, other than the Markets business, which goes up or down, if rates go up, you can see our earnings and risk disclosure, we will earn more NII, all things being equal, which, of course, they never are, but all the deal. And in addition to that, we can make decisions to deploy more money for more NII.

給出一個簡單的答案，525 億美元，除了市場業務，它會上升或下降，如果利率上升，你可以看到我們的收益和風險披露，我們將賺取更多的 NII，在所有條件相同的情況下， ，當然，他們從來沒有，但所有的交易。除此之外，我們還可以決定為更多 NII 部署更多資金。

It's interesting versus when you were at our conference, Jamie, it seems like the $52.5 billion is more a function of the curve, given the fact that Card did, it looks like better than you had thought at that time in the middle of June based on your comments about spend being up so much. But the...

有趣的是，與您參加我們的會議時相比，Jamie，看起來 525 億美元更像是曲線的函數，考慮到 Card 所做的事實，它看起來比您當時在 6 月中旬的預期要好關於你關於花費這麼多的評論。但是...

Betsy, let me just -- sorry to interrupt you, but let me just pick up on that point for a second because I think someone else has a similar question. But I would just remind you that we do see that very healthy sequential growth in card loans on the back of spending. But the key issue is the revolve behavior. And so our view on that really hasn't changed, and we do see elevated pay rates as a result of the cash buffers, which remains kind of the consistent reason in why we have a muted outlook for Card NII this year.

Betsy，讓我 - 很抱歉打斷你，但讓我先談談這一點，因為我認為其他人也有類似的問題。但我只想提醒你，我們確實看到卡貸款在支出的支持下出現了非常健康的連續增長。但關鍵問題是旋轉行為。因此，我們對此的看法確實沒有改變，我們確實看到由於現金緩衝而提高了工資率，這仍然是我們今年對 Card NII 前景看淡的一致原因。

Yes. Yes. No, I totally get that.

是的。是的。不，我完全明白。

And I don't want to correct anyone here, but I personally think you'll see it go up by the end of the year, okay? I think we'll be a little conservative on that because of all the spend and stuff like that. But we hate guessing. What I look at much more is how many cars you have? How much spend do you have? How many happy customers do you have? NII will take care of itself.

我不想在這裡糾正任何人，但我個人認為到今年年底你會看到它上升，好嗎？我認為我們會因為所有的支出和類似的東西而在這方面有點保守。但我們討厭猜測。我更看重的是你有多少輛車？你有多少錢？您有多少滿意的客戶？ NII 會照顧好自己。

And on that front, your card fees were quite good, right? You mentioned that in your press release. Maybe you can give us a sense as to the drivers? Is that new openings? Is that basically what it is? How sustainable is that? Because that was a bit of an upside surprise in this result, the card fees?

在這方面，你的卡費相當不錯，對吧？你在新聞稿中提到了這一點。也許您可以讓我們了解驅動程序？是新開的嗎？基本上是這樣的嗎？這有多可持續？因為這個結果有點意外，卡費？

Yes. I mean I think it's just spend, Betsy. I mean looking at -- you can get more color than that. Reggie can follow-up if you want. But at a high level, I think the card spend number is really all about -- I mean, sorry, the card fee number is really all about the spend trends.

是的。我的意思是我認為這只是花費，Betsy。我的意思是看——你可以得到比這更多的顏色。如果你願意，雷吉可以跟進。但在高層次上，我認為卡消費數字真的是關於——我的意思是，對不起，卡費用數字真的是關於消費趨勢的。

Okay. And then just one last, if I can squeeze it in. Your VAR came down significantly. Can you give us a sense as to what's going on there?

好的。如果我能把它擠進去，那就是最後一個。你的 VAR 明顯下降了。你能告訴我們那裡發生了什麼嗎？

Yes. I mean that's just the volatility of last year's prior quarter coming out of the time series, right, if you think about it.

是的。我的意思是，這只是時間序列中去年上一季度的波動，對，如果你考慮一下的話。

Our next question is coming from the line of Charles Peabody from Portales Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Portales Partners 的 Charles Peabody。

Yes. I want to ask that NII question a little bit differently. In reiterating your $52.5 billion guidance, you said there was potential for some variation or variability around that number. And I'm trying to understand where the greatest variation could come from.

是的。我想以不同的方式提出 NII 的問題。在重申您 525 億美元的指導時，您表示該數字可能會出現一些變化或變化。我試圖了解最大的變化可能來自哪裡。

Is it in your loan growth expectations? Because I'm hearing that you really are not expecting much in the way of loan growth. Or is it in the shape of the yield curve because of the Fed's QE actions or words around taper?

它在您的貸款增長預期中嗎？因為我聽說您對貸款增長的期望並不高。還是因為美聯儲的量化寬鬆行動或圍繞縮減的言論而形成收益率曲線？

And talking about the yield curve, could you also talk a little bit about what's more important, the short end of the yield curve between Fed funds in the 2-year or the long end? And in that conversation, I'd love to talk about the significant amount of liquidity that's about to hit the short end.

談到收益率曲線，您能否也談談更重要的是，2 年期聯邦基金收益率曲線的短端或長端？在那次談話中，我很想談談即將觸及短期的大量流動性。

There is a disclosure in the March 31 10-Q, it shows earning risk. If rates go up 100 basis points, U.S. dollar and non-U.S. dollar of $7 billion, if the whole curve goes up 100 basis points. So the $7 billion, some number like 4.5 or 5 is short rates versus long rates.

在 3 月 31 日的 10-Q 中有披露，它顯示了盈利風險。如果利率上升 100 個基點，美元和非美元為 70 億美元，如果整個曲線上升 100 個基點。所以 70 億美元，比如 4.5 或 5 是短期利率與長期利率。

The long rate number is cumulative. I would add every year until you roll over these things at slightly higher rates. That is the number, okay? They are -- obviously, loan growth is loan growth, that's in the plus or minus, but the biggest thing is the interest rates. Jeremy?

長利率數字是累積的。我會每年添加，直到您以略高的價格滾動這些東西。就是這個數字，好嗎？它們是——顯然，貸款增長就是貸款增長，有正有負，但最重要的是利率。傑里米？

Yes.

是的。

And other variables.

和其他變量。

Well, let me give you the variables, Charles, because it's kind of a reasonable question. So I'll spare you my Markets NII speech. You heard it already, but that's obviously a big factor.

好吧，讓我給你變量，查爾斯，因為這是一個合理的問題。因此，我將省去您的 Markets NII 演講。您已經聽說過，但這顯然是一個重要因素。

Within Card, we are somewhat optimistic about loan growth, but just remember that, that loan growth has to translate into revolve to drive NII. And so if pay rates remain, as I said earlier, it's the central case forecast that reflects the recent experience. So we are forecasting elevated pay rates.

在 Card 內部，我們對貸款增長有些樂觀，但請記住，貸款增長必須轉化為推動 NII 的旋轉。因此，如果工資率保持不變，正如我之前所說，反映近期經驗的是中心案例預測。因此，我們預測工資率會提高。

But of course, we could be wrong. They could be even more elevated than we are currently forecasting. So that would be downside. And the opposite of that, if we see the consumer relevering, starting a little bit sooner, would create upside there.

但當然，我們可能是錯的。它們可能比我們目前預測的還要高。所以這將是不利的。與此相反，如果我們看到消費者重新開始，早一點開始，就會在那裡創造上行空間。

And then there's the impact of deployment. So we're staying patient right now, that means that we're not earning the steepness of the yield curve. And if that changes, that could create a little bit of upside. And then there's always the tactical actions that we can take in the front end of the curve.

然後是部署的影響。所以我們現在保持耐心，這意味著我們沒有獲得收益率曲線的陡峭。如果這種情況發生變化，那可能會帶來一點上行空間。然後總是有我們可以在曲線的前端採取的戰術行動。

Right now, those aren't very interesting because IOER is above money market rates, which is a big part of the reason that you see RRP having so much uptake. But it's not going to change, and there were opportunities and repo and so on, then that could help a little bit as part of our constant tactical deployment there. But that's not, again, our simple case.

目前，這些都不是很有趣，因為 IOER 高於貨幣市場利率，這是您看到 RRP 有如此多的吸收的重要原因。但它不會改變，並且有機會和回購等等，作為我們在那裡持續戰術部署的一部分，這可能會有所幫助。但這又不是我們的簡單案例。

Just to follow-up on that. I mean the liquidity that's going to hit in July and August is substantial. And that's going to have some impact on the shape of the yield curve at the short end. We saw a rise in the overnight repo rate, reverse repo rate in June. Is it possible that we have to have another one to keep rates from falling too far?

只是為了跟進。我的意思是，將在 7 月和 8 月衝擊的流動性很大。這將對短期收益率曲線的形狀產生一些影響。我們看到 6 月份的隔夜回購利率和逆回購利率有所上升。是否有可能我們必須有另一個以防止利率下降太多？

Yes. I mean, I think that's a question for kind of short-term fixed income market strategists and my old research team. But right now, it seems like the Fed is pretty committed to making sure that repo rates don't trade negative. That's part of the reason they made the technical correction. That's part of the reason RRP is paying what it pays.

是的。我的意思是，我認為這是短期固定收益市場策略師和我以前的研究團隊的問題。但現在，美聯儲似乎非常致力於確保回購利率不會為負值。這也是他們進行技術修正的部分原因。這就是 RRP 付出的部分原因。

So we'll see what happens there. But to me, the front end of the yield curve, from a deployment opportunity perspective, looks not very interesting right now. And that is kind of our central case for the rest of this year.

所以我們會看看那裡會發生什麼。但對我來說，從部署機會的角度來看，收益率曲線的前端現在看起來並不是很有趣。這是我們今年剩餘時間的核心案例。

And did the rise in the RRP rate have any -- your comments about market-driven NII, did it have any impact on market-driven NII?

RRP 利率的上升是否有任何影響——你對市場驅動的 NII 的評論，它對市場驅動的 NII 有什麼影響嗎？

Yes, that's not really the way that works.

是的，這不是真正的工作方式。

I think that's 5 basis points.

我認為這是5個基點。

Yes. I mean, I think, you may be -- I mean, I don't know if it's part of your question or not, but there's, of course, the increase in IOER, and there's some pretty simple math you can view there about 5 basis points on -- or 10 basis points on $0.5 trillion for half a year. So -- but those are pretty small numbers in the scheme of global precision we're dealing with here.

是的。我的意思是，我認為，你可能是——我的意思是，我不知道這是否是你問題的一部分，但當然，IOER 有所增加，你可以在那裡查看一些非常簡單的數學5 個基點 - 或 10 個基點 5 萬億美元，為期半年。所以——但在我們在這里處理的全局精度方案中，這些數字非常小。

A follow-up question is coming from the line from Gerard Cassidy from RBC Capital Markets.

RBC Capital Markets 的 Gerard Cassidy 提出了一個後續問題。

Jeremy, I just wanted to follow-up. Can you give us some color about the residential mortgage lending business? How was the gain-on-sale margins this quarter? Any outlook on margins or any outlook on volumes, I should say? But also, did you say also that you guys sustained a small loss or a loss in the servicing area? If so, what drove that?

傑里米，我只是想跟進。您能給我們介紹一下住宅抵押貸款業務嗎？本季度的銷售利潤率如何？我應該說，對利潤率或對交易量的任何展望？而且，你也說你們在維修區遭受了小損失或損失嗎？如果是這樣，是什麼驅動了它？

Yes. So let's talk a little bit about mortgage, which is a business I'm still learning. But we've had very robust originations, $40 billion this quarter. I think the most significant -- one of the significant things that's going on is we've really finished unwinding all of our credit pullbacks from the crisis. So we're fully back in the corresponding channel, which is obviously helping the volumes.

是的。所以讓我們談談抵押貸款，這是我仍在學習的一項業務。但我們的資金來源非常強勁，本季度達到了 400 億美元。我認為最重要的——正在發生的最重要的事情之一是，我們已經真正完成了從危機中撤出的所有信貸回撤。所以我們完全回到了相應的渠道，這顯然有助於提高銷量。

There's obviously been a huge refi boom over the last year with lower rates. That's starting to slow down a little bit. The purchase market has been quite robust, although now we've seen so much home price appreciation that maybe affordability starts to be a little bit of a headwind.

顯然，去年出現了巨大的再融資熱潮，利率較低。這開始慢了一點。購買市場一直相當強勁，儘管現在我們已經看到房價大幅上漲，以至於負擔能力開始有點逆風。

So as we sit here today from a margin perspective, you have your kind of typical dynamics. As rates go up a little bit, refi slows down a little bit that the industry has built capacity. You have probably a little bit of a margin headwind looking forward. And obviously, there's a mix effect. So as corresponding becomes a much bigger part of the originations, you have mix-based margin compression. So -- and obviously...

因此，當我們今天從利潤的角度坐在這裡時，您就有了典型的動態。隨著利率上升一點點，refi 放緩了一點，該行業已經建立了產能。展望未來，您可能會有一點邊際逆風。顯然，有一個混合效應。因此，隨著對應成為來源中更大的一部分，您就有了基於混合的保證金壓縮。所以——顯然……

I think Gerard said that was the all-time highs. And now it's not even normal. It's just getting low on all-time-highs.

我認為杰拉德說這是歷史最高點。而現在這甚至不正常。它只是在歷史最高點上走低。

Yes, exactly. So it's a headwind relative to a super elevated prior year quarter, but it's still run perfectly healthy.

對，就是這樣。因此，相對於去年同期超高的季度，這是一個逆風，但它仍然運行得非常健康。

In terms of the servicing business, I think, really, as you all understand, in the current environment, the prepayment rates, prepayment speeds have been running significantly above our model forecast.

在服務業務方面，我認為，真的，正如大家所了解的，在當前環境下，預付款率、預付款速度已經大大高於我們的模型預測。

And so as we continue to really update those as part of our risk management, that can further some small risk management losses. But in general, the risk management of the parts of the MSR that can be managed has actually been very good and very stable. So I think that's everything you had, Gerard, right?

因此，隨著我們繼續真正更新這些作為我們風險管理的一部分，這可能會進一步擴大一些小的風險管理損失。但總的來說，MSR中可以管理的部分風險管理其實已經非常好，非常穩定。所以我認為這就是你所擁有的一切，杰拉德，對吧？

Yes.

是的。

There are no incoming questions. Thank you.

沒有傳入的問題。謝謝你。

To that end, I just want to thank Jen Piepszak, for a great job. She's our new CFO. You'll also know she's happy with these guys in their new job.

為此，我只想感謝 Jen Piepszak 所做的出色工作。她是我們的新首席財務官。你也會知道她對這些人的新工作很滿意。

And Jeremy, I know a lot of you know Jeremy, but he's been the CFO of the IB for 7 or 8 or 8 years or so, so a complete professional. And so Jeremy, welcome to your first call, and congratulations. So...

還有傑里米，我知道你們很多人都認識傑里米，但他已經擔任 IB 的首席財務官 7 或 8 或 8 年左右，所以是一個完整的專業人士。傑里米，歡迎您的第一個電話，祝賀您。所以...

Thank you, Jamie.

謝謝你，傑米。

Talk to you all soon. Thank you.

很快就和大家聊聊。謝謝你。

Well, they survived it.

好吧，他們活下來了。

Thank you, everyone. That marks the end of your call. Thank you for joining, and have a great day.

謝謝大家。這標誌著您的通話結束。感謝您的加入，祝您有美好的一天。