摩根大通 (JPM) 2021 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to JPMorgan Chase's Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Call. This call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions). We will now go live to the presentation. Please stand by.

早上好，女士們，先生們。歡迎參加摩根大通 2021 年第三季度財報電話會議。正在錄製此通話。 （操作員說明）。我們現在將進行演示。請待命。

At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to JPMorgan Chase's Chairman and CEO, Jamie Dimon; and Chief Financial Officer, Jeremy Barnum. Mr. Barnum, please go ahead.

在這個時候，我想把電話轉給摩根大通的董事長兼首席執行官傑米戴蒙；和首席財務官傑里米·巴納姆。巴納姆先生，請繼續。

Thanks, operator. Good morning, everyone. The presentation is available on our website, and please refer to the disclaimer in the back.

謝謝，接線員。大家，早安。該演示文稿可在我們的網站上找到，請參閱後面的免責聲明。

Starting on Page 1. The firm reported net income of $11.7 billion, EPS of $3.74 on revenue of $30.4 billion and delivered a return on tangible common equity of 22%. These results include a $2.1 billion net credit reserve release, which I'll cover in more detail shortly as well as an income tax benefit of $566 million. Adjusting for these items, we delivered an 18% ROTCE this quarter.

從第 1 頁開始。該公司報告的淨收入為 117 億美元，每股收益為 3.74 美元，收入為 304 億美元，有形普通股的回報率為 22%。這些結果包括 21 億美元的淨信貸儲備釋放（我將在稍後更詳細地介紹）以及 5.66 億美元的所得稅優惠。調整這些項目後，我們本季度實現了 18% 的 ROTCE。

Touching on a few highlights. It was another strong quarter for Investment Banking, including an all-time record for M&A. And while loan growth remains muted, we see a number of indicators to suggest it has stabilized and may be poised to begin more robust growth across the company and particularly in Card. And consistent with last quarter, credit continues to be quite healthy. In fact, net charge-offs are the lowest we've experienced in recent history.

談到幾個亮點。這是投資銀行業務的又一個強勁季度，其中併購交易創下歷史新高。雖然貸款增長仍然低迷，但我們看到一些指標表明它已經穩定下來，並且可能準備在整個公司開始更強勁的增長，尤其是在 Card 領域。與上一季度一致，信貸仍然相當健康。事實上，淨沖銷是我們最近歷史上經歷過的最低點。

On Page 2, we have some more detail. Revenue of $30.4 billion was up $500 million or 2% year-on-year. Net interest income was up 1% with balance sheet growth and higher rates primarily offset by mix and lower CIB Markets NII. And NIR was up 3%, driven by solid fee generation across Investment Banking and AWM, largely offset by net securities losses in corporate versus gains in the prior year and lower revenue in Home Lending.

在第 2 頁，我們有更多細節。收入 304 億美元，同比增長 5 億美元或 2%。淨利息收入增長 1%，資產負債表增長和較高的利率主要被混合和較低的 CIB Markets NII 所抵消。 NIR 增長了 3%，這得益於投資銀行和 AWM 產生的穩定費用，這在很大程度上被公司證券淨虧損與上一年的收益以及房屋貸款收入下降所抵消。

Expenses of $17.1 billion were up 1% year-on-year on continued investments and higher volume and revenue-related expenses, predominantly offset by lower legal expense and the absence of an impairment in the prior year. And credit costs were a net benefit of $1.5 billion, driven by the reserve release. But it's also worth noting that net charge-offs of just over $500 million were approximately half of last year's third quarter number.

171 億美元的費用同比增長 1%，原因是持續投資以及與數量和收入相關的費用增加，主要被較低的法律費用和上一年沒有減值所抵消。在儲備金釋放的推動下，信貸成本帶來了 15 億美元的淨收益。但同樣值得注意的是，剛剛超過 5 億美元的淨沖銷額約為去年第三季度數字的一半。

Let's cover reserves on the next page. We released $2.1 billion this quarter, driven by less severe downside scenarios as the macro environment continues to normalize. Reserves stand at $20.5 billion, which still accounts for elevated uncertainties surrounding COVID and the current labor market dynamics, including the expiration of expanded unemployment benefits.

讓我們在下一頁討論儲備。隨著宏觀環境繼續正常化，我們在本季度發布了 21 億美元，這是由於下行情景不太嚴重。儲備金為 205 億美元，這仍然是圍繞 COVID 和當前勞動力市場動態的不確定性增加的原因，包括擴大的失業救濟金到期。

Now moving to balance sheet and capital on Page 4. We ended the quarter with a CET1 ratio of 12.9%, down modestly, primarily on higher RWA. The firm distributed $8 billion of capital to shareholders this quarter including $5 billion of net repurchases. And the common dividend was increased to $1 per share.

現在轉到第 4 頁的資產負債表和資本。本季度末我們的 CET1 比率為 12.9%，略有下降，主要是由於 RWA 較高。該公司本季度向股東分配了 80 億美元的資本，其中包括 50 億美元的淨回購。普通股息增加到每股1美元。

With that, let's move on to our businesses, starting with Consumer & Community Banking on Page 5. CCB reported net income of $4.3 billion, including reserve releases of $950 million on revenue of $12.5 billion, down 3% year-on-year. Deposits were up 3% quarter-on-quarter, indicating some deceleration as excess deposits are stabilizing.

有了這個，讓我們繼續我們的業務，從第 5 頁的消費者和社區銀行業務開始。建行報告淨收入為 43 億美元，其中準備金釋放 9.5 億美元，收入為 125 億美元，同比下降 3%。存款環比增長 3%，表明隨著過剩存款趨於穩定，出現了一定程度的減速。

Notably contributing to this growth, we ranked #1 in retail deposit share based on the FDIC data, and we're the only large bank to show meaningful share growth, up 70 basis points year-on-year. Similarly, client investment assets were up 29% year-on-year. And while market performance was a driver, retail flows in both adviser and digital channels were strong.

根據 FDIC 的數據，我們在零售存款份額中排名第一，我們是唯一一家實現顯著份額增長的大型銀行，同比增長 70 個基點。同樣，客戶投資資產同比增長 29%。雖然市場表現是一個驅動因素，但顧問和數字渠道的零售流量都很強勁。

Touching on spend. Combined credit and debit spend was up 24% versus the third quarter of '19 and in line with last quarter. Within that data, travel and entertainment spend was up 8% versus 3Q '19 and very closely track the patterns of the Delta variant within the quarter, softening in August and early September and reaccelerating in recent weeks.

觸及支出。與 19 年第三季度相比，信用卡和借記卡的總支出增長了 24%，與上一季度持平。在該數據中，旅遊和娛樂支出與 19 年第三季度相比增長了 8%，並且非常接近該季度內 Delta 變體的模式，在 8 月和 9 月初有所放緩，並在最近幾週重新加速。

Card outstandings were up 1% year-on-year and 4% quarter-on-quarter, benefiting from higher new account originations. And while the payment rate is still very elevated, it's come down from the highs, and revolving balances have stabilized. And when we look inside our data, we see evidence of excess deposits starting to normalize in segments of the population that traditionally revolve. So as a result, we're optimistic about the growth prospects of revolving card balances.

受惠於新開戶數增加，信用卡未償付額按年上升 1%，按季上升 4%。雖然支付率仍然很高，但已經從高點回落，循環餘額已經穩定下來。當我們查看我們的數據時，我們看到有證據表明，在傳統上旋轉的人口部分中，過量存款開始正常化。因此，我們對循環卡餘額的增長前景持樂觀態度。

Moving to Home Lending. Average loans were down 6% year-on-year, but up 2% quarter-on-quarter with portfolio additions now outpacing prepayments. It was another strong quarter for originations totaling nearly $42 billion, up 43% year-on-year, reflecting record purchase volume and share gains in the refi market.

搬到房屋貸款。平均貸款同比下降 6%，但環比增長 2%，投資組合的增加現在超過了預付款項。這是另一個強勁的季度，總額近 420 億美元，同比增長 43%，反映了再融資市場創紀錄的購買量和份額增長。

And in Auto, we had $11.5 billion of originations, second only to last quarter's record. So overall, loans ex PPP were up 3% quarter-on-quarter on the growth in Card and Home Lending I just mentioned.

在汽車領域，我們有 115 億美元的發起，僅次於上一季度的記錄。總體而言，由於我剛才提到的信用卡和房屋貸款的增長，除購買力平價外的貸款環比增長了 3%。

Expenses of $7.2 billion were up 5% year-on-year, driven by investments in the business, including marketing. And more generally, we continue to see that the acceleration in digital adoption during the pandemic has persisted with active mobile users up 10% year-on-year to almost 45 million.

在包括營銷在內的業務投資的推動下，72 億美元的費用同比增長 5%。更廣泛地說，我們繼續看到大流行期間數字化採用的加速持續，活躍的移動用戶同比增長 10%，達到近 4500 萬。

So with that, looking forward, we are encouraged by our household growth and balance sheet trends. However, we expect it to take some time for revolving credit card balances to return to pre-pandemic levels given the amount of liquidity in the system. In the meantime, credit losses and delinquencies remain extraordinarily low. In Card on a year-to-date basis versus 2019, low charge-offs more than offset lower NII.

因此，展望未來，我們對家庭增長和資產負債表趨勢感到鼓舞。但是，鑑於系統中的流動性，我們預計循環信用卡餘額需要一段時間才能恢復到大流行前的水平。與此同時，信用損失和拖欠率仍然非常低。與 2019 年相比，在 Card 的年初至今，低沖銷抵消了較低的 NII。

Next, the Corporate & Investment Bank on Page 6. CIB reported net income of $5.6 billion on revenue of $12.4 billion. Investment Banking revenue of $3 billion was up 45% versus the prior year and down 12% sequentially. IB fees were up 52% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in advisory and equity underwriting, and we maintained our #1 rank with a year-to-date wallet share of 9.4%.

接下來是第 6 頁的企業與投資銀行。CIB 報告淨收入為 56 億美元，收入為 124 億美元。投資銀行業務收入為 30 億美元，同比增長 45%，環比下降 12%。受諮詢和股票承銷強勁表現的推動，IB 費用同比增長 52%，我們以 9.4% 的年初至今錢包份額保持第一名。

In advisory, it was an all-time record quarter benefiting from the surge in M&A activity, and we almost tripled fees year-on-year in a market that doubled. Debt underwriting fees were up 3%, driven by an active leveraged loan market, primarily linked to acquisition financing. And in equity underwriting, fees were up 41%, primarily driven by our strong performance in IPOs.

在諮詢方面，這是一個創紀錄的季度，受益於併購活動的激增，在一個翻倍的市場中，我們的費用同比幾乎翻了三倍。在活躍的槓桿貸款市場（主要與收購融資相關）的推動下，債務承銷費上漲了 3%。在股票承銷方面，費用增長了 41%，主要是由於我們在 IPO 中的強勁表現。

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, the overall pipeline is healthy, and the M&A market is expected to remain active. And if so, IB fees should be up year-on-year but down sequentially.

展望第四季度，整體管道健康，併購市場有望保持活躍。如果是這樣，IB 費用應該會同比上升，但會依次下降。

Moving to Markets. Total revenue was $6.3 billion, down 5% compared to a record third quarter last year. Notably, we were up 24% from 2019, driven by the continued strong performance in equities and Spread products.

轉移到市場。總收入為 63 億美元，與去年第三季度的創紀錄水平相比下降了 5%。值得注意的是，由於股票和價差產品的持續強勁表現，我們比 2019 年增長了 24%。

Fixed income was down 20% year-on-year due to ongoing normalization across products, particularly in Commodities, as well as an adjustment to liquidity assumptions in our derivatives portfolio. Equities was up 30%, a record third quarter, with strength across regions and reflecting higher balances in prime, strong client activity in cash as well as ongoing momentum in derivatives.

由於產品（尤其是大宗商品）的持續正常化，以及我們對衍生品投資組合的流動性假設進行調整，固定收益同比下降 20%。第三季度股市上漲 30%，創歷史新高，各地區表現強勁，反映了優質資產餘額增加、客戶現金活動強勁以及衍生品持續增長的勢頭。

In terms of outlook, keep in mind that it will be a difficult compare against a record fourth quarter last year but the current environment continues to challenge our ability to forecast revenues.

就前景而言，請記住，與去年創紀錄的第四季度相比，這將是一個困難的時期，但當前的環境繼續挑戰我們預測收入的能力。

Wholesale Payments revenue of $1.6 billion was up 22%, or up 10% excluding gains on strategic equity investments. And the year-on-year growth was driven by higher deposits and fees, partially offset by deposit margin compression.

批發支付收入為 16 億美元，增長 22%，不包括戰略股權投資收益，增長 10%。同比增長是由較高的存款和費用推動的，部分被存款保證金壓縮所抵消。

Security services revenue of $1.1 billion was up 9%, primarily driven by growth in fees on higher market levels. Expenses of $5.9 billion were flat year-on-year as higher structural and volume and revenue-related expense as well as investments were offset by lower legal expense. And credit costs were a net benefit of $638 million, driven by the reserve release I mentioned upfront.

安全服務收入為 11 億美元，增長 9%，主要受較高市場水平的費用增長推動。 59 億美元的費用與去年同期持平，因為較高的結構和數量以及與收入相關的費用以及投資被較低的法律費用所抵消。在我前面提到的儲備金釋放的推動下，信貸成本帶來了 6.38 億美元的淨收益。

Moving to Commercial Banking on Page 7. Commercial Banking reported net income of $1.4 billion. Revenue of $2.5 billion was up 10% year-on-year on higher investment banking and wholesale payments revenue. Record gross investment banking revenue of $1.3 billion was up 60%, primarily driven by increased large deal activity with continued strength in M&A and acquisition-related financing across both corporate client and middle market banking. Expenses of $1 billion were up 7% year-on-year, predominantly due to investments and higher volume and revenue-related expenses.

轉到第 7 頁的商業銀行業務。商業銀行業務報告的淨收入為 14 億美元。由於投資銀行業務和批發支付收入增加，收入為 25 億美元，同比增長 10%。創紀錄的 13 億美元投資銀行總收入增長了 60%，這主要是由於大宗交易活動的增加以及企業客戶和中間市場銀行業務的併購和收購相關融資持續強勁。 10 億美元的費用同比增長 7%，主要是由於投資以及與數量和收入相關的費用增加。

Deposits were up 4% sequentially, mainly driven by higher operating balances, and loans were down 1% quarter-on-quarter. C&I loans were down 3%, but up 1% excluding PPP, driven by higher originations. And it's also worth noting that consistent with last quarter, we are seeing a slight uptick in utilization rates in middle market. And those among larger corporates seem to have stabilized albeit at historically low levels.

存款環比增長 4%，主要是由於經營餘額增加，貸款環比下降 1%。 C&I 貸款下降了 3%，但不包括 PPP，則上升了 1%，這是由更高的來源推動的。還值得注意的是，與上一季度一致，我們看到中間市場的利用率略有上升。大型企業中的那些似乎已經企穩，儘管處於歷史低位。

CRE loans were flat with modestly higher originations in commercial term lending offset by net payoff activity in real estate banking. Finally, credit costs were a net benefit of $363 million, driven by reserve releases with net charge-offs of 6 basis points.

CRE 貸款持平，商業定期貸款的來源略有增加，但被房地產銀行業務的淨收益活動所抵消。最後，信貸成本是 3.63 億美元的淨收益，這得益於儲備金釋放和 6 個基點的淨沖銷。

And then to complete our lines of business, AWM on Page 8. Asset & Wealth Management reported net income of $1.2 billion with pretax margin of 37%. Record revenue of $4.3 billion was up 21% year-on-year as higher management fees and growth in deposit and loan balances were partially offset by deposit margin compression. Expenses of $2.8 billion were up 13% year-on-year, largely driven by higher performance-related compensation as well as distribution fees. For the quarter, net long-term inflows of $33 billion continued to be positive across all channels, asset classes and regions, with notable strength in equities and fixed income.

然後，為了完成我們的業務，AWM 在第 8 頁。資產和財富管理報告的淨收入為 12 億美元，稅前利潤率為 37%。創紀錄的 43 億美元收入同比增長 21%，因為較高的管理費用和存貸款餘額的增長被存款利潤率壓縮部分抵消。 28 億美元的支出同比增長 13%，主要是由於與業績相關的薪酬和分銷費用增加。本季度，所有渠道、資產類別和地區的 330 億美元長期淨流入繼續為正，股票和固定收益表現顯著。

AUM of $3 trillion and overall assets of $4.1 trillion, up 17% and 22% year-on-year, respectively, were driven by higher market levels and strong net inflows. And finally, loans were up 3% quarter-on-quarter with continued strength in custom lending, securities-based lending and mortgages, while deposits were up 5% sequentially.

3 萬億美元的資產管理規模和 4.1 萬億美元的總資產分別同比增長 17% 和 22%，這主要得益於更高的市場水平和強勁的淨流入。最後，貸款環比增長 3%，定制貸款、證券貸款和抵押貸款持續強勁，而存款環比增長 5%。

Turning to Corporate on Page 9. Corporate reported a net loss of $817 million, including $383 million of the $566 million tax benefit that I mentioned upfront. Revenue was a loss of $1.3 billion, down $957 million year-on-year. NII was a loss of $1.1 billion, down $372 million, primarily on limited deployment opportunities as deposit growth continued. And we realized $256 million of net investment securities losses in the quarter compared to $466 million of net gains last year. Expenses of $160 million were down $559 million year-on-year, primarily driven by the absence of an impairment on a legacy investment in the prior year.

轉到第 9 頁的企業。企業報告淨虧損 8.17 億美元，其中包括我前面提到的 5.66 億美元稅收優惠中的 3.83 億美元。收入虧損 13 億美元，同比減少 9.57 億美元。 NII 虧損 11 億美元，減少 3.72 億美元，主要是由於存款持續增長，部署機會有限。我們在本季度實現了 2.56 億美元的淨投資證券虧損，而去年的淨收益為 4.66 億美元。 1.6 億美元的費用同比減少 5.59 億美元，主要是由於上一年的遺留投資沒有減值。

On the next page, let's discuss the outlook. Our full year outlook for 2021 remains largely in line with our previous guidance. We still expect NII to be approximately $52.5 billion and adjusted expenses to be approximately $71 billion. But as you'll see on the page, we've lowered our outlook for the Card net charge-off rate to around 2% as delinquencies remain very low.

在下一頁，讓我們討論前景。我們對 2021 年的全年展望與我們之前的指引基本保持一致。我們仍然預計 NII 約為 525 億美元，調整後的費用約為 710 億美元。但正如您將在頁面上看到的那樣，由於拖欠率仍然非常低，我們已將信用卡淨沖銷率的前景下調至 2% 左右。

So to wrap up, we're pleased with this quarter's performance as we approach what we hope is the tail end of the pandemic. The strength of the company, both in terms of our diversified business model as well as our fortress balance sheet, talent and culture, have enabled us to perform well through this difficult period while continuing to serve our clients, customers and communities.

因此，總而言之，我們對本季度的表現感到滿意，因為我們接近我們希望大流行的尾聲。公司的實力，無論是我們多元化的商業模式，還是我們的堡壘資產負債表、人才和文化，都使我們能夠在這個困難時期表現出色，同時繼續為我們的客戶、客戶和社區服務。

As we look ahead and the environment normalizes, new challenges will undoubtedly arise, but we feel confident with the position of the company and the strategy going forward. With that, operator, please open the line to Q&A.

展望未來，環境趨於正常化，無疑會出現新的挑戰，但我們對公司的地位和未來的戰略充滿信心。有了這個，接線員，請打開問答線。

And our first question is coming from John McDonald from Autonomous Research.

我們的第一個問題來自 Autonomous Research 的 John McDonald。

Jeremy, I wanted to ask about the net interest income guidance for the year. It seems to imply a nice step-up in NII for the fourth quarter to roughly $13.5 billion. Was wondering what do you expect to be the drivers of that sequential step-up? And would you see the fourth quarter NII as a good starting point for us to think about our 2022 NII forecast?

傑里米，我想問一下今年的淨利息收入指導。這似乎意味著第四季度 NII 將大幅增長至約 135 億美元。想知道你認為連續升級的驅動因素是什麼？您是否認為第四季度 NII 是我們考慮 2022 年 NII 預測的一個很好的起點？

Yes, John. Good question and good catch there. It's true. That is quite a bit of sequential growth. If you do the math, it suggest about $350 million. And in reality, if you think about what we've been saying about the outlook for increased revolve and deployment and so on, the increase is not intuitively high.

是的，約翰。很好的問題和很好的收穫。這是真的。這是相當多的連續增長。如果你算一下，它建議大約 3.5 億美元。實際上，如果您考慮一下我們一直在談論的關於增加旋轉和部署等的前景，那麼直觀上的增加並不高。

And so just to explain, within that, there are a couple of factors. So one, there's actually a meaningful amount of Markets NII growth between the third and the fourth quarter, which in general, we would sort of encourage you to ignore. And there's also some sequential increase in NII from PPP forgiveness contributing to the fourth quarter number. So if you strip those 2 out, you still see a little bit of modest growth, which is a little bit more consistent, I think, with the overall story that we've been telling, which is that the real acceleration in NII, especially from higher card revolve is a 2022 item.

只是為了解釋一下，其中有幾個因素。因此，在第三季度和第四季度之間實際上有相當數量的市場 NII 增長，總的來說，我們會鼓勵你忽略這一點。購買力平價寬恕對第四季度數字的貢獻也使 NII 連續增加。所以如果你把這兩個去掉，你仍然會看到一點點適度的增長，我認為這與我們一直在講述的整體故事更加一致，那就是 NII 的真正加速，尤其是來自更高卡的 revolve 是 2022 年的項目。

In that context then, if you take that sort of lower number and think about annualizing that, I think it's fair to assume that, that would be a sort of lower-end estimate for the 2022 number in light of what we believe will happen in terms of especially card revolve. But obviously, we'll give you a little bit more color about 2022 next quarter.

那麼在這種情況下，如果您採用這種較低的數字並考慮將其年度化，我認為可以公平地假設，鑑於我們認為將在特別是卡的條款旋轉。但顯然，我們將在下個季度為您提供更多關於 2022 年的信息。

Okay. And as a follow-up, your cash balances continue to grow, and you've been conservative on liquidity deployment. Could you update us on your thinking around liquidity deployment, pacing that and what factors you're balancing?

好的。作為後續行動，您的現金餘額繼續增長，並且您在流動性部署方面一直很保守。您能否向我們介紹您對流動性部署、調整節奏以及您正在平衡哪些因素的想法？

Yes, totally. So at the highest level, I would say that nothing's really changed, meaning we're still all else equal, happy to be patient. We still believe in a robust global recovery. We still are a little bit concerned about inflation, I think relative to the consensus. And all of that contributes to a willingness to be relatively patient about deployment.

是的，完全。所以在最高級別上，我想說什麼都沒有真正改變，這意味著我們仍然是平等的，很高興能有耐心。我們仍然相信強勁的全球復甦。我認為相對於共識而言，我們仍然有點擔心通脹。所有這些都有助於對部署保持相對耐心的意願。

But it's also fair to say that relative to last quarter, rates were obviously higher. We start to see central banks around the world normalizing their policy stance a little bit. So the market implied rates are coming a little bit more in line with our view. And given that, it wouldn't be surprising if we saw some more opportunities for front-end deployment, cash and cash-like activity as well as possibly some duration management.

但也可以公平地說，相對於上一季度，利率明顯更高。我們開始看到世界各地的中央銀行將其政策立場稍微正常化。因此，市場隱含利率與我們的觀點更加一致。鑑於此，如果我們看到更多的前端部署機會、現金和類似現金的活動以及可能的一些持續時間管理，也就不足為奇了。

Our next question is coming from the line of Jim Mitchell from Seaport Global Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Seaport Global Securities 的 Jim Mitchell。

Just first on loan growth. As you noted, Auto has been strong, Cards starting to show signs of life. But it looks like outside of acquisition finance, C&I still seems a little weak, and we've got ongoing supply chain issues. So as we think about the big picture, how are you seeing, I guess, loan demand trends playing out? And what are you expecting as the next 12 months progresses?

首先是貸款增長。正如你所提到的，汽車一直很強大，卡牌開始顯示出生命的跡象。但看起來除了收購融資之外，C&I 似乎仍然有些薄弱，而且我們一直存在供應鏈問題。因此，當我們考慮大局時，我猜您如何看待貸款需求趨勢？隨著未來 12 個月的進展，您期待什麼？

Yes. So let's go through loan growth because obviously, that's one of the areas that everyone is interested in. So if we start with Card, which is obviously the one that's going to matter the most in terms of NII impact. As you said, we see some signs of life, and we believe that recovery is strongly underway. And it seems, hopefully, like Delta is really fading, so that's going to help.

是的。所以讓我們來看看貸款增長，因為顯然，這是每個人都感興趣的領域之一。所以如果我們從 Card 開始，這顯然是對 NII 影響最重要的一個。正如你所說，我們看到了一些生命跡象，我們相信復甦正在強勁進行。看起來，希望，就像 Delta 真的在消失，所以這會有所幫助。

If you just look forward just to the holiday season, we would expect to see normal seasonality and normal growth there. And the question, really, for Card, as we've talked about a lot, is whether that growth in spend and in card outstandings translates into revolve.

如果您只期待假期，我們預計會看到正常的季節性和正常的增長。正如我們經常討論的那樣，對於 Card 來說，問題是支出和信用卡未償付的增長是否會轉化為旋轉。

But as I noted in the prepared remarks, when we look inside the data and we look at the customers who have both deposit accounts with us and our card customers, and we look at those who would typically be the ones that are most inclined to revolve, we actually do see slightly faster spend down of the excess deposit balances there. So that makes us relatively optimistic about both the potential for Card outstandings to grow with higher spend, but also for increased revolve and lower pay rates as we go into next year. It's going to take time, obviously, but that is the core view.

但正如我在準備好的評論中指出的那樣，當我們查看數據並查看同時擁有我們存款賬戶的客戶和我們的卡客戶時，我們會查看那些通常最傾向於旋轉的人，我們確實看到那裡的超額存款餘額略有下降。因此，這使我們對信用卡未償付額隨著支出增加而增長的潛力相對樂觀，而且隨著我們進入明年，循環增加和工資率降低。顯然，這需要時間，但這是核心觀點。

In Home Lending, broadly, we expect that this quarter's trend with portfolio additions outpacing prepayments to continue. And then in C&I, which you mentioned, just a reminder, right, that as you go to the higher end of the spectrum in terms of the size of the C&I customers, we're eager to lend to them. It's a key part of the franchise, but from a financial performance perspective, that's more of an outcome rather than a goal.

在房屋貸款方面，我們預計本季度投資組合增加超過預付款的趨勢將繼續下去。然後在你提到的 C&I 中，只是提醒一下，當你在 C&I 客戶規模方面進入高端時，我們渴望向他們提供貸款。這是特許經營權的關鍵部分，但從財務績效的角度來看，這更多的是結果而不是目標。

But we do, as I noted upfront, see a little bit of an uptick in utilization rates among smaller corporates. So that's kind of consistent with the theme that we've been seeing, which is that the smaller you are and the less likely you are to have had -- to have benefited from the wide-open capital markets, the more likely you are to be borrowing. We do hear a lot about supply chain issues from that customer segment. So it's going to be interesting to see how that plays out.

但是，正如我前面提到的，我們確實看到小型企業的利用率略有上升。所以這與我們一直看到的主題是一致的，即你越小，你擁有的可能性就越小——從廣泛開放的資本市場中受益，你就越有可能正在藉貸。我們確實從該客戶群中聽到了很多關於供應鏈問題的信息。所以看看結果如何會很有趣。

And then in CRE, we see quite a robust origination pipeline as we have sort of fully removed any pandemic-related credit pullbacks. And we're leaning into that, and we do expect to see a little bit of net loan growth going forward.

然後在 CRE 中，我們看到了相當強大的發起渠道，因為我們已經完全消除了任何與大流行相關的信貸回撤。我們正在考慮這一點，我們確實預計未來會看到一些淨貸款增長。

And then finally, I would note that we do see some loan growth in Markets, actually. And we generally discourage you from focusing too much on NII and loan growth within Markets. But it is an indicator that there are some opportunities there that we're taking advantage of in the usual kind of nimble way that you would expect us to do in Markets.

最後，我要指出的是，我們確實在市場上看到了一些貸款增長。我們通常不鼓勵您過分關注 NII 和市場內的貸款增長。但這是一個指標，表明我們正在以通常的靈活方式利用那裡的一些機會，您希望我們在市場中這樣做。

Okay. That's all very helpful. And maybe just a follow-up on the expense side. You and your peers have all seen higher expenses this year, higher capital markets and incentive expense and increased investment spend. But as we think about going into next year, if capital markets activity normalizes as many expect, can we start to see expense growth slow? Or are there other considerations to think about, whether it's investment spend or inflation pressures that we should think about?

好的。這一切都非常有幫助。也許只是費用方面的後續行動。您和您的同行今年都看到了更高的支出、更高的資本市場和激勵費用以及增加的投資支出。但當我們考慮進入明年時，如果資本市場活動如許多人預期的那樣正常化，我們能否開始看到費用增長放緩？或者還有其他需要考慮的因素，無論是我們應該考慮的投資支出還是通脹壓力？

Yes. So it's a little bit of an all of the above story, I would say. So first of all, we're still in the middle of budgeting. And it's sort of a little early to be giving you 2022 expense guidance. We'll do more of that next quarter. But realistically, expenses are going to be up next year.

是的。所以我想說，這只是上面所有的故事。因此，首先，我們仍處於預算之中。現在為您提供 2022 年的費用指導還為時過早。我們將在下個季度做更多的事情。但實際上，明年的費用會增加。

Now to your point about capital markets-related expenses, it's obviously true that we pay for performance. And in light of the very strong performance over the last couple of years in both banking and markets, we have seen increased compensation expense on the way up. And therefore, as a function of the amount of normalization that you see in 2022, you're going to see that come down in line, all else equal.

現在談到與資本市場相關的費用，我們為業績付費顯然是正確的。鑑於過去幾年銀行業和市場的強勁表現，我們看到薪酬費用在上升。因此，作為你在 2022 年看到的標準化量的函數，你會看到它下降，所有其他條件都相同。

Obviously, I would point out that I think that the amount of growth in that number that we've seen through the pandemic is less than a lot of people would have expected actually. And therefore, on the way back down, you would also potentially expect less participation, not to mention just the timing dynamics associated with the treatment of stock-based compensation vesting.

顯然，我要指出，我認為我們通過大流行看到的這個數字的增長量低於很多人的實際預期。因此，在回落的過程中，您還可能期望更少的參與，更不用說與處理基於股票的薪酬歸屬相關的時間動態了。

So all of that aside, at the same time, we are still investing. We still see significant opportunities. We still see marketing opportunities in Card. And yes, labor inflation is a question. You saw us raise wages in parts of the U.S. at the entry level that just came into effect this September. And as we look out, we see a lot of churn.

所以除了所有這些，與此同時，我們仍在投資。我們仍然看到了重要的機會。我們仍然看到 Card 的營銷機會。是的，勞動力通脹是一個問題。你看到我們在今年 9 月剛剛生效的入門級提高了美國部分地區的工資。當我們向外看時，我們看到了很多流失。

And as Jamie was saying, it's good stuff. It's normal. It's understandable in this environment. But labor inflation is definitely a watch item for us. So when you put all that stuff together, as I say, we'll update you more next quarter. But that's sort of how we see the expense outlook for next year.

正如傑米所說，這是好東西。這是正常的。在這種環境下是可以理解的。但勞動力通脹對我們來說絕對是一個值得關注的項目。因此，正如我所說，當您將所有這些東西放在一起時，我們將在下個季度為您更新更多信息。但這就是我們對明年支出前景的看法。

Next question is coming from Mike Mayo from Wells Fargo Securities.

下一個問題來自 Wells Fargo Securities 的 Mike Mayo。

There are a couple of events during the quarter that I wanted to ask about. And specifically, how has the tech strategy evolved? One, you made the announcement that you're changing the retail bank core system entirely to the public cloud, and that's a big change. And Jamie, I would love to hear your comments on that.

本季度有幾件事我想問一下。具體來說，技術戰略是如何演變的？一，您宣布將零售銀行核心系統完全更改為公共雲，這是一個很大的變化。傑米，我很想听聽你對此的評論。

And then second, your expansion in the U.K. with digital banking, what metrics are you shooting for? And third, your recent fintech acquisitions, to what degree are there synergies among the acquisitions in addition to JPMorgan?

其次，你在英國的數字銀行業務擴張，你追求什麼指標？第三，您最近的金融科技收購，除了摩根大通之外，收購之間在多大程度上存在協同效應？

Okay. Mike, hang on, I'm writing down your questions because I don't want to lose track. Okay. So let's start with the cloud first. So yes, you will have seen some press coverage around our partnership with Thought Machine. At a high level, there's actually nothing new here. We've actually been committed to the cloud for a long time.

好的。邁克，等等，我正在寫下你的問題，因為我不想迷失方向。好的。因此，讓我們先從雲開始。所以，是的，你會看到一些關於我們與 Thought Machine 合作的新聞報導。在高層次上，這裡實際上沒有什麼新東西。實際上，我們長期以來一直致力於雲計算。

And by the way, when I say cloud, I think we're talking about both private and public cloud. Our core strategy involves really leaning into both and being very nimble across both. And I think that's very important for us as a regulated institution from a resiliency perspective. But the reasons for -- and that's all part of our overall tech modernization road map and a lot of the investments that we're doing that you've heard all the leadership of the company talk about.

順便說一句，當我說云時，我認為我們正在談論私有云和公共雲。我們的核心戰略是真正地融入兩者並在兩者中都非常靈活。我認為從彈性的角度來看，這對我們作為一個受監管的機構來說非常重要。但原因——這都是我們整體技術現代化路線圖的一部分，以及我們正在進行的許多投資，你已經聽到公司所有領導層都在談論。

When it comes to Thought Machine in the consumer space, there are 5 main reasons why we did that. And it's all the normal reasons why you do cloud stuff and you do tech modernization. We want to be able to innovate quickly and bring products to consumers faster. We want to be able to run multiple products on the same platform.

談到消費領域的思想機器，我們這樣做的主要原因有 5 個。這就是你做雲計算和技術現代化的所有正常原因。我們希望能夠快速創新，更快地將產品帶給消費者。我們希望能夠在同一個平台上運行多個產品。

As I mentioned, resiliency is critical. Increasingly, we want to be able to run the bank much more in real time rather than based on batch processes. And obviously, APIs are central to the entire strategy in this environment. So that's what I would say about that. Now -- yes, please, Jamie?

正如我所提到的，彈性至關重要。我們越來越希望能夠更多地實時運營銀行，而不是基於批處理。顯然，API 是這種環境中整個戰略的核心。這就是我要說的。現在 - 是的，請傑米？

I'll just say this real quick. Thought Machine is basically the core general ledger. It's not all the other stuff around consumer. And when you do these conversions, different than conversions in the past, you can do them -- you can schedule pieces -- do part at a time, not all at once, like a big bank, which we used to have to do when we did big merger and stuff like that. So it's a -- I put it as a lower risk for the company, but the core strategy hasn't changed at all.

我會說這真的很快。思想機器基本上是核心總賬。這不是圍繞消費者的所有其他東西。當你進行這些轉換時，與過去的轉換不同，你可以進行它們——你可以安排部分——一次做一部分，而不是一次全部，就像一個大銀行，我們過去在我們做了大合併之類的事情。所以這是一個 - 我認為公司的風險較低，但核心戰略根本沒有改變。

Yes. Okay. And then, Mike, international consumer and acquisitions, I think you asked about. So in terms of international consumer, you will have seen that we launched -- it's obviously early days to give meaningful updates on that, but you will have noted actually that we just rebranded Nutmeg as a JPMorgan company just a couple of days ago. So all that's proceeding apace, and it seems to be pretty well received. I think the offering is seen as differentiated and innovative. So we'll have more to say about that over time. Generally...

是的。好的。然後，邁克，國際消費者和收購，我想你問過。因此，就國際消費者而言，你會看到我們推出了——顯然現在給出有意義的更新還為時過早，但你實際上會注意到，幾天前我們剛剛將 Nutmeg 重新命名為摩根大通公司。所以這一切都在快速進行，而且似乎很受歡迎。我認為該產品被視為差異化和創新。因此，隨著時間的推移，我們將有更多話要說。一般來說...

Can I just -- again, just to add. This is a 10-year game plan. This is not -- they're going to worry that much about metrics in the next month or 2. And with -- this is a long-term work to try to get this thing right, because if we ever going to be retail overseas, it's going to be digital. And so we're going to be very patient. And at one point, Mike, we will report some metrics so you can see them. But they're not going to be material to the firm's numbers for years.

我可以 - 再說一遍，只是補充一下。這是一個10年的遊戲計劃。這不是——他們會在接下來的一兩個月內非常擔心指標。而且——這是一項試圖把事情做好的長期工作，因為如果我們要在海外進行零售的話，它將是數字的。所以我們會非常有耐心。在某一時刻，邁克，我們將報告一些指標，以便您查看。但多年來，它們不會對公司的數據產生重大影響。

Yes. It's going to take time for sure. So -- but just more generally, in terms of the acquisition strategy, we've talked about this a little bit before. We're not claiming that we have some overarching top-down acquisition strategy. I think broadly, we're just doing things that make sense. But there are some themes that you can detect around bolt-on and adding capabilities.

是的。這肯定需要時間。所以 - 但更一般地說，就收購策略而言，我們之前已經討論過這個問題。我們並不是說我們有一些自上而下的總體收購策略。我認為從廣義上講，我們只是在做有意義的事情。但是有一些主題可以圍繞螺栓固定和添加功能進行檢測。

Just for the sake of argument, if you start with AWM, you see a pretty consistent theme in there of ESG-related capability additions. You've mentioned already international expansion and the potential for growth, and it will be a long game, as Jamie says. And then, yes, there's definitely a fintech narrative a little bit in terms of some of the stuff that we've done in the CIB.

只是為了爭論，如果您從 AWM 開始，您會在其中看到與 ESG 相關的功能添加非常一致的主題。你已經提到了國際擴張和增長潛力，正如 Jamie 所說，這將是一場漫長的比賽。然後，是的，就我們在 CIB 所做的一些事情而言，肯定有一點金融科技的敘述。

And then within consumer, most recently, the collection of things that we've done, I think, is unified by the theme of providing more integrated and holistic experiences to our customers. We've always been very proud of the value proposition that we offer, especially in the Card product. But we think we can take it up even another notch with some of the stuff that we're doing around lounges and cxLoyalty and stuff like that. So I think I touched on everything there, Mike.

然後在消費者內部，我認為，最近，我們所做的事情的集合被統一為為我們的客戶提供更集成和整體體驗的主題。我們一直為我們提供的價值主張感到非常自豪，尤其是在卡片產品方面。但我們認為我們可以通過我們在休息室和 cxLoyalty 周圍所做的一些事情以及類似的事情將它提升一個檔次。所以我想我觸及了那裡的一切，邁克。

You certainly did. And just a follow-up. I mean we see the results. The marginal efficiency in the businesses where you're growing has improved, and we just don't have the why. So how much of that is tech driven versus other reasons?

你當然做到了。只是一個後續行動。我的意思是我們看到了結果。您正在發展的業務的邊際效率已經提高，我們只是不知道為什麼。那麼其中有多少是技術驅動的而不是其他原因呢？

I mean I guess you have metrics internally that we just don't have. But your marginal efficiency is what? Or your unit costs are going down or any additional color as to the why the marginal efficiency is improving.

我的意思是我猜你在內部有我們沒有的指標。但是你的邊際效率是什麼？或者您的單位成本正在下降，或者邊際效率提高的任何其他顏色。

Yes. So I mean I think reasonable people can differ on how you talk about this stuff, especially in terms of what parts of the expense base you see is a little bit more fixed versus a little bit more floating. I would have said that in reality, marginal expense increases as a function of most types of marginal revenue are actually lower than a lot of people think. So the sort of operating leverage that you see, especially in the type of environment that we've had with really big increases in revenue in the capital markets areas in the NIR side, is actually relatively consistent with what I would have expected.

是的。所以我的意思是我認為理性的人可能會在你如何談論這些事情上有所不同，特別是在你看到的費用基礎的哪些部分更固定而不是更浮動方面。我會說，實際上，作為大多數類型邊際收入的函數的邊際支出增加實際上比很多人想像的要低。因此，您看到的那種經營槓桿，特別是在我們在 NIR 方面資本市場領域收入大幅增長的環境類型中，實際上與我的預期相對一致。

But a little bit to your point, Mike, what's also true is that we're a big organization. There's a scale play here. We have a big fixed cost base. And a lot of the modernization agenda is about making sure that, that doesn't creep and that it's as expensive as possible so that it can be as nimble as possible. And that marginal efficiency over time is as good as possible, but that's a long play there.

但是，邁克，您的觀點也很重要，我們是一個大組織，這也是事實。這裡有一個規模遊戲。我們有一個很大的固定成本基礎。許多現代化議程是為了確保它不會蔓延，並且盡可能昂貴，以便盡可能靈活。而且隨著時間的推移，邊際效率是盡可能好的，但這是一個長期的過程。

I'll just add, Mike. One of the things as you think about -- one is you -- people worried about the forecast for next year and stuff like that. We're playing the game for 10 years here. So we're going to -- and we're not going to disclose certain things like margin by product or something like that because it's competitive information. But the long game, we are competing with some very large, talented global players who are not even in banking today. And we are going to compete in that. So even some of these acquisitions are more around that than around just what I consider traditional banking.

我會補充一點，邁克。你想到的一件事——一件事就是你——人們擔心明年的預測和類似的事情。我們在這裡玩了 10 年。所以我們會 - 我們不會披露某些東西，比如按產品劃分的利潤率或類似的東西，因為它是競爭信息。但從長遠來看，我們正在與一些非常龐大、才華橫溢的全球參與者競爭，這些參與者今天甚至不在銀行業。我們將在這方面競爭。因此，即使是其中一些收購也更多地圍繞著這一點，而不僅僅是我認為的傳統銀行業。

And so -- and my whole life, just so you know, we've been modernizing technology. Every year of every month of every quarter, that's like a permanent state of affairs. Obviously, now it's to the cloud and stuff like that. Those things are critical to do to be competitive going forward. That was true, by the way, 20 years ago.

所以——以及我的一生，正如你所知，我們一直在使技術現代化。每年每個季度每個月，這就像一個永久的狀態。顯然，現在是雲和類似的東西。這些事情對於未來保持競爭力至關重要。順便說一句，20 年前確實如此。

Next up, we have a question from Ken Usdin from Jefferies.

接下來，我們有一個來自 Jefferies 的 Ken Usdin 的問題。

I wanted to ask if you can expand a little bit more upon Card fees and Card revenue rate. We all certainly expected the marketing expenses to kind of go up inside that line. And just wondering if you can help us understand how much of that was captured in the third quarter. And just what your general outlook is for the fee line and the underlying overall revenue rate?

我想問您是否可以在卡費和卡收入率方面再擴大一點。我們當然都預計營銷費用會在該範圍內上升。只是想知道您是否可以幫助我們了解第三季度捕獲了多少。您對收費線和潛在的整體收入率的總體展望是什麼？

Yes. Thanks, Ken. So you're right. Part of the drop in the revenue rate this quarter is a function of higher Card marketing spend, which you would have expected as a result of what we said last quarter in terms of the importance of getting our fair share of the growth in spending as we emerge from the pandemic. And the fact that we're out in the market with a lot of offers that are seeing good uptake, and we're seeing nice growth there. So that's expected. And I think that Card marketing number will actually remain elevated and if anything, tick up a little bit sequentially just based on how the amortization there works. So you should expect to see that continue.

是的。謝謝，肯。所以你是對的。本季度收入率下降的部分原因是卡營銷支出增加，這是您預期的結果，因為我們上個季度說過，我們在支出增長中獲得公平份額的重要性，因為我們從大流行中脫穎而出。事實上，我們在市場上提供的很多報價都被很好地吸收了，而且我們在那裡看到了不錯的增長。所以這是意料之中的。而且我認為 Card 營銷數量實際上會保持較高水平，如果有的話，根據那裡的攤銷方式，按順序增加一點。所以你應該期望看到這種情況繼續下去。

But in addition, this quarter, we have just an adjustment to the rewards liability, which is contributing to the drop this quarter as well. So that is not something that we see continuing. So that should come out of the run rate as we look forward.

但此外，本季度，我們只是對獎勵負債進行了調整，這也導致了本季度的下降。所以這不是我們看到的繼續。因此，正如我們期待的那樣，這應該超出運行速度。

Can you help us understand like what the magnitude of that is and what you think about overall Card revenue rate going forward?

您能否幫助我們了解其規模以及您對未來整體卡收入率的看法？

Yes. I mean as you know, we don't really manage the Card revenue rate. So it's not a number that I'm eager to guide to. But I think the -- if I remember correctly, I think the rewards liability adjustment this quarter was of the order of something like $180 million. So we'll confirm that, but I think that's right.

是的。我的意思是如你所知，我們並沒有真正管理卡的收入率。所以這不是我急於引導的數字。但我認為 - 如果我沒記錯的話，我認為本季度的獎勵負債調整約為 1.8 億美元。所以我們會確認這一點，但我認為這是正確的。

Okay. If I might just ask Jamie. You made a comment yesterday about the supply chain hopefully easing by next year around this time. What are you just hearing from your partners around the world in terms of the log jams and the potential for that to open up from here?

好的。如果我可以問傑米。你昨天發表了關於供應鏈的評論，希望在明年這個時候放鬆。您剛剛從世界各地的合作夥伴那裡聽到了關於原木堵塞以及從這裡開放的潛力的什麼信息？

Yes. I'm not hearing much different than you're hearing. I'm just -- I know that the overfocus over time is so extraordinary sometimes from the press that people forget the big picture. The economy is growing 4% or 5%. What people are buying has changed, which has also hurt supply chains a little bit. There's not one company I know that's not working aggressively to fix their supply chain issues. Sales are still up, credit card, debit card spend still up, consumers in great shape. And capitalism works.

是的。我聽到的和你聽到的沒什麼不同。我只是——我知道，隨著時間的推移，媒體的過度關注有時是如此不同尋常，以至於人們忘記了大局。經濟增長 4% 或 5%。人們購買的東西發生了變化，這也對供應鏈造成了一些傷害。據我所知，沒有一家公司不積極努力解決他們的供應鏈問題。銷售額仍在增長，信用卡、借記卡消費仍在增長，消費者狀況良好。資本主義有效。

I doubt we'll be talking about supply chain stuff in a year. I just think that we're focusing on it too much. It's simply dampening a fairly good economy. It's not reversing a fairly good economy.

我懷疑我們會在一年內談論供應鏈的事情。我只是認為我們過於關注它了。它只是抑制了相當好的經濟。它並沒有扭轉一個相當好的經濟。

Next up, we have a question from Betsy Graseck from Morgan Stanley.

接下來，我們有一個來自摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck 的問題。

Yes, 2 questions. One, just following up on the Card discussion that we just have regarding the fees and the $180 million on the -- roughly $180 million on the rewards adjustment. I mean it still leaves us with a pretty big decline Q-on-Q. And I'm just trying to think through that a little bit, because I know marketing, rewards, et cetera, is up. But was there anything in particular that would have driven a one-timer that is unlikely to persist or not?

是的，2個問題。一，只是跟進我們剛剛關於費用和 1.8 億美元的卡討論 - 大約 1.8 億美元的獎勵調整。我的意思是它仍然給我們留下了相當大的 Q-on-Q 下降。我只是想稍微考慮一下，因為我知道營銷、獎勵等等都在上升。但是有什麼特別的東西會驅動一個不太可能持續存在的一次性計時器嗎？

I realize that cash back is a little more expensive. So maybe that's a piece of it, and it's a onetime move. Or is it more a function of, hey, we're going to be ramping our offerings here. And so you should expect that the forward look is a step down from what you had been seeing in 2Q?

我意識到現金返還有點貴。所以也許這是其中的一部分，而且是一次性的。或者它更像是一個功能，嘿，我們將在這裡增加我們的產品。因此，您應該期望與您在第二季度所看到的相比，前瞻前景有所下降？

Yes. So Betsy, in short, it's really the latter. So the only thing that is onetime-ish in nature, for lack of a better term, is the rewards liability adjustment. And the rest of it really is marketing spend, and we see that as a critical investment in this moment. It's a moment of high engagement with the product, and we're very committed to making those investments. And so that is going to remain elevated, and if anything, tick up a little bit as we look forward.

是的。所以Betsy，簡而言之，確實是後者。因此，由於缺乏更好的術語，唯一具有一次性性質的就是獎勵責任調整。剩下的就是營銷支出，我們認為這是目前的一項關鍵投資。這是對產品高度參與的時刻，我們非常致力於進行這些投資。所以這將保持高位，如果有的話，在我們期待的時候稍微提高一點。

Okay. And then separately, I think today is the last day of the Vice Chair for Supervision, Randy Quarles' term as Vice Chair of sup and reg. So the question is, how should we be thinking about how you are positioning for an environment where maybe these rules don't change, right, like the LCR, the SLR, other things that we had been hoping might have some changes in them. Should we be anticipating that in order to help deliver the growth that you're looking for? That we should anticipate more pref issuance going forward?

好的。然後另外，我認為今天是監督副主席 Randy Quarles 擔任 sup 和 reg 副主席的最後一天。所以問題是，我們應該如何考慮如何在這些規則可能不會改變的環境中定位，對，比如 LCR、SLR，以及我們一直希望可能會發生一些變化的其他事物。我們是否應該預見到這一點，以幫助實現您正在尋找的增長？我們應該期待更多的優先發行嗎？

Yes. So I think obviously, we're a little disappointed that we haven't seen some of the changes on the non-risk-sensitive size-based constraints that we'd expected. But we're still hopeful that, that will come soon. We know the staff is hard at work on the Basel III endgame, and that's complicated stuff. And it may be the case that some of those things are connected.

是的。所以我認為顯然，我們有點失望，因為我們沒有看到我們預期的非風險敏感的基於規模的約束的一些變化。但我們仍然希望，這將很快到來。我們知道工作人員正在為巴塞爾 III 的最後階段努力工作，這是很複雜的事情。其中一些事情可能是相互關聯的。

And our strategy on pref issuance has been to try to balance giving ourselves the capacity that we want to deal with the SLR constraint without overissuing and, therefore, being stuck with high-cost prefs that aren't callable for 5 years. So that's part of the reason why we're operating a little bit above our CET1 target right now, and we're just going to continue to be nimble in that respect.

我們關於 pref 發行的策略是嘗試平衡給自己我們想要處理 SLR 約束的能力，而不會過度發行，因此被困在 5 年內無法調用的高成本 prefs 中。所以這就是我們現在的運營略高於我們的 CET1 目標的部分原因，我們將在這方面繼續保持靈活。

Next up, a question from Glenn Schorr from Evercore ISI.

接下來，來自 Evercore ISI 的 Glenn Schorr 提出了一個問題。

So in the spirit of your thought on not overly focusing on the near term, I heard your comments on payment rates in Cards, 4Q seasonality, optimism about revolving card balances. So is there an implicit comment within there about buy now, pay later and the impact it may or may not have? I mean I'd love to get your perspective on how this old, but I guess new, payment option might have on the card industry overall.

因此，本著您不要過分關注近期的想法，我聽到了您對卡片支付率、第四季度季節性、對循環卡餘額的樂觀態度的評論。那麼其中是否有關於現在購買，以後付款以及它可能產生或可能沒有影響的隱含評論？我的意思是我很想听聽你對這個舊的看法，但我想新的支付選項可能會對整個卡行業產生影響。

Yes. Thanks, Glenn. So yes, BNPL, everyone is talking about it. It is funny how layaway is back in the e-commerce checkout lane. But -- and obviously, we're looking at it. Everyone is talking about it. And it's a moment for us as a company where even though for any given thing that's emerging, you can easily convince yourself that it's kind of not a threat.

是的。謝謝，格倫。所以是的，BNPL，每個人都在談論它。有趣的是，layaway 是如何回到電子商務結賬通道的。但是 - 顯然，我們正在研究它。每個人都在談論它。對於我們公司來說，這是一個時刻，即使對於任何正在出現的特定事物，您都可以輕鬆地說服自己這不是威脅。

We're in a moment of taking all types of potential disruptions, especially fintech-y type disruptions quite seriously. And in the case of BNPL, it's obviously particularly high profile because of the growth that we've seen, although, it's a relatively small portion of the overall market.

我們正在認真對待所有類型的潛在中斷，尤其是金融科技類型的中斷。就 BNPL 而言，由於我們所看到的增長，它顯然特別引人注目，儘管它在整個市場中所佔的份額相對較小。

I'll remind you that we have our own very compelling offerings that speak directly to the installment payment experience in the form of My Chase Loan and My Chase Plan, which we get really good feedback on the customer experience there in terms of the kind of post-purchase experience. You can select eligible purchases on the app and then move that to the installment plan, if you want. But yes, we acknowledge that it is downstream of the point of sale, which potentially raises some questions about whether we should be looking at moving a little bit more upstream there.

我會提醒您，我們有自己非常引人注目的產品，以 My Chase Loan 和 My Chase Plan 的形式直接與分期付款體驗相關，我們在客戶體驗方面得到了非常好的反饋購後體驗。如果需要，您可以在應用程序上選擇符合條件的購買，然後將其移至分期付款計劃。但是，是的，我們承認它位於銷售點的下游，這可能會引發一些問題，即我們是否應該考慮向上游移動一點。

But even more generally, when you take a step back, what we're really trying to do in the consumer business here is think about what is the actual customer need that is driving the growth in BNPL. And how can we respond to it in a strategic, holistic way across all of our customers and not sort of too narrowly and too reactively just respond to BNPL? But it's obviously a thing that we're looking at, and it's quite interesting.

但更一般地說，當你退後一步時，我們在消費者業務中真正想做的是考慮推動 BNPL 增長的實際客戶需求是什麼。我們如何才能以戰略性的、整體的方式對我們所有的客戶做出回應，而不是太狹隘和太被動地回應 BNPL？但這顯然是我們正在研究的東西，而且非常有趣。

I think it's another example of a fintech company -- because you saw a firm come out, and it's no longer just about BNPL. They're going to have a debit card and a cash banking account. So these are all different forms of competition, which we have to respond to. And so that's why when we talk about like expenses, we will spend whatever we have to spend to compete with all these folks in our space.

我認為這是金融科技公司的另一個例子——因為你看到一家公司出來了，它不再只是關於 BNPL。他們將擁有一張借記卡和一個現金銀行賬戶。所以這些都是不同形式的競爭，我們必須做出回應。所以這就是為什麼當我們談論類似的費用時，我們將花費我們必須花費的一切來與我們空間中的所有這些人競爭。

I appreciate all that. Maybe one other comment or to get your thought on the right perspective to think about China and Evergrande. And what people care about most is, is there an expansion across border? Meaning, is this contained within their market? Is the funders that will have some marks within their market? Or do you see any domino effect in crossing borders?

我很感激這一切。也許是其他評論或讓您以正確的角度思考中國和恆大。而人們最關心的是，有沒有跨界擴張？意思是，這是否包含在他們的市場中？資助者會在他們的市場上留下一些印記嗎？或者您是否看到過境中的多米諾骨牌效應？

Yes. So look, obviously, everyone is looking at Evergrande. Let me start by just saying that for us, in terms of direct Evergrande exposure, it is absolutely de minimis. So that's one piece.

是的。所以看，顯然，每個人都在看恆大。首先我要說的是，對於我們來說，直接接觸恆大，絕對是微不足道的。所以這是一件。

As you would expect, we've also looked at sort of more indirect exposures in terms of the broad China property sector as well as exposures of financial institutions that we deal with to the China property sector. And in general, those exposures are all very modest. So we're obviously watching it closely and continuing to look for read across and do what you would expect us to do. But we're not terribly concerned right now about the impact on us.

如您所料，我們還研究了中國房地產行業的間接風險敞口，以及與我們打交道的金融機構對中國房地產行業的風險敞口。總的來說，這些曝光都非常溫和。所以我們顯然正在密切關注它並繼續尋找閱讀並做你期望我們做的事情。但我們現在並不十分擔心對我們的影響。

I think in terms of cross-border contagion, I don't hold my own opinion on this in particularly high regard. But it does seem like this was pretty well telegraphed by the Chinese authorities when they talked about their three red lines. So it's a process that's being managed. And I would say the better view right now is that it will be contained. But of course, it's the market, so we'll see what happens.

我認為在跨境傳染方面，我對此並不特別重視。但是，當中國當局談到他們的三條紅線時，這似乎是很好的電報。所以這是一個被管理的過程。我想說，現在更好的觀點是它將被包含在內。但當然，這是市場，所以我們會看看會發生什麼。

Next up, we have a question from Ebrahim Poonawala from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

接下來，我們有來自美銀美林的 Ebrahim Poonawala 的問題。

I guess just wanted to follow up on 2 themes that we discussed. One around fintechs and the regulatory changes, a lot of focus on the change in leadership at the regulatory agencies. Jamie, you've talked about in the past in terms of the regulatory arbitrage when you look at big tech, nonbank players. I think BNPL is a good example of that. Do you think as we have new leadership at the regulatory agencies, they are alert to this arbitrage? And do you think we see a climb down? Or is it too late for really them to create a framework that would level the playing field?

我想只是想跟進我們討論的兩個主題。圍繞金融科技和監管變化，大量關注監管機構領導層的變化。 Jamie，您過去曾談到監管套利，當您查看大型科技非銀行參與者時。我認為BNPL就是一個很好的例子。你認為我們在監管機構有了新的領導層，他們對這種套利保持警惕嗎？你認為我們看到爬下嗎？還是他們真的創建一個可以平衡競爭環境的框架為時已晚？

I don't expect that there will be beneficial changes that help banks. And I think that we just have to compete with what we're -- the hand we're dealt and not expect anything like that. And I think that you're going to have some people clamp down more on banks, and maybe some people regulate fintech based on products or services, something like that. But I'm not expecting any relief.

我不認為會有有益的變化對銀行有所幫助。而且我認為我們只需要與我們現在的樣子競爭——我們被處理的那手牌，而不是期待這樣的事情。而且我認為你會讓一些人更多地打擊銀行，也許有些人會根據產品或服務來監管金融科技，諸如此類。但我並不期待任何緩解。

Got it. Yes. And I was wondering if there would be increased scrutiny of the nonbank players relative to the banks, but point noted. And I guess, just on a separate question there, Jeremy. We didn't see any build in the CET1 when I look at the numerator. Anything going on there this quarter that impacted it? And with the stock where it is at 2.4x tangible book, just you remind us of how important are buybacks here as opposed to just keeping some dry powder as the economy gets better.

知道了。是的。我想知道相對於銀行是否會加強對非銀行參與者的審查，但需要指出。我想，傑里米，只是在一個單獨的問題上。當我查看分子時，我們沒有在 CET1 中看到任何構建。本季度發生了什麼影響它的事情嗎？股票的有形賬面價值是 2.4 倍，你提醒我們這裡的回購是多麼重要，而不是隨著經濟的好轉而僅僅保持一些乾粉。

Yes. So I mean, the answer to how important buybacks are is that they're at the end of our capital hierarchy, as we often say, right? So organic growth, including acquisitions, sustainable dividend, and only then do we look at buybacks. And in light of the SCB environment that we're in, where we don't have a Fed-approved buyback plan anymore, and if we just simply have to comply with the minimums and BAU, that gives us quite a bit of nimbleness, which is an important thing to preserve in light of a world where we do hope for loan growth next year and where acquisitions are still potentially on the horizon.

是的。所以我的意思是，回購有多重要的答案是，正如我們常說的，它們位於我們資本層次結構的末端，對嗎？所以有機增長，包括收購、可持續股息，然後我們才會考慮回購。鑑於我們所處的 SCB 環境，我們不再有美聯儲批准的回購計劃，如果我們只需要遵守最低限度和 BAU，這給了我們相當多的靈活性，鑑於我們確實希望明年貸款增長以及收購仍有可能出現，這是一個重要的事情。

So nothing really going on this quarter other than a little bit of RWA growth in the denominator. And we're just really going to stay nimble there.

因此，除了分母中 RWA 的一點點增長之外，本季度並沒有真正發生任何事情。我們真的會在那裡保持敏捷。

But is there a case to be made, Jeremy, in terms of just holding some dry powder and excess capital given your macro outlook as opposed to buying back stock at current valuations?

但是，傑里米，考慮到你的宏觀前景，是否有理由只持有一些乾粉和多餘的資本，而不是以當前估值回購股票？

Yes. I think the valuations -- as the stock goes up, you're going to -- you should expect us maybe one day, buy less. And we don't need dry powder. We have an extraordinary amount of capital liquidity, I mean, extraordinary. And we earned $40 billion pretax a year. I mean how much dry powder do you need?

是的。我認為估值——隨著股票上漲，你會——你應該期待我們有一天，少買。而且我們不需要乾粉。我們有大量的資本流動性，我的意思是，非同尋常的。我們每年的稅前收入為 400 億美元。我的意思是你需要多少干粉？

We have $1.6 trillion of cash and marketable securities. We have 200 -- well over $200 million of equity. We can issue preferreds, we can issue debt. We can issue stock, if we had to do something. So I don't think we need dry powder. I think our capital cup runneth over where it is.

我們擁有 1.6 萬億美元的現金和有價證券。我們有 200 - 超過 2 億美元的股權。我們可以發行優先股，我們可以發行債務。如果我們必須做某事，我們可以發行股票。所以我認為我們不需要乾粉。我想我們的首都杯跑到哪裡去了。

The next one is from Steve Chubak from Wolfe Research.

下一篇來自 Wolfe Research 的 Steve Chubak。

So Jeremy, you provided some helpful detail on the drivers of loan growth by category. Just looking ahead, is your expectation that loan growth begins to keep pace with GDP or economic growth? Or is there anything that would actually justify more meaningful acceleration in lending activity, whether it's just greater pent-up loan demand, normalization of the card payment rates or something else?

傑里米，您提供了一些有關按類別劃分的貸款增長驅動因素的有用細節。展望未來，您的預期是貸款增長開始與 GDP 或經濟增長保持同步嗎？或者是否有任何東西可以證明貸款活動更有意義地加速是合理的，無論是更大的被壓抑的貸款需求、信用卡支付利率的正常化還是其他什麼？

Good question, Steve. But I think you're sort of potentially leading me into giving fairly detailed loan growth guidance for 2022, which I'm not really in a position to do. But let me see if I can answer this at a high level. I mean we've talked a lot about spend, which we believe in, driving Card loans higher. So that's one piece.

好問題，史蒂夫。但我認為你可能會引導我給出相當詳細的 2022 年貸款增長指導，而我真的無法做到這一點。但是讓我看看我是否可以在高水平上回答這個問題。我的意思是我們已經談論了很多關於支出的問題，我們相信這會推動信用卡貸款更高。所以這是一件。

And the revolve story within that, as a function of the spend down in cash buffers, especially in our revolver -- the revolving segment of our customers. And obviously, as you know well, if you kind of think about our NII as the sum product of the NIM and the outstandings in the various loan categories, it is really disproportionately Card that drives things.

而其中的循環故事，作為現金緩衝支出減少的函數，特別是在我們的左輪手槍中——我們客戶的循環部分。顯然，正如您所知道的，如果您將我們的 NII 視為 NIM 和各種貸款類別的未償餘額的總和產品，那麼推動事物發展的真的是不成比例的 Card。

In the meantime, if you move a little bit away from consumer to the larger wholesale system, in a world where even if tapering starts relatively soon, if that plays out over roughly 8 months at $15 billion of decrease a month, you still -- if you do the math, wind up with another $0.5 trillion of QE. So we are dealing with a system that has a lot of surplus liquidity.

與此同時，如果你稍微從消費者轉移到更大的批發系統，在一個即使逐漸開始相對較快開始的世界，如果這種情況在大約 8 個月內以每月減少 150 億美元的速度出現，你仍然——如果你算一算，最後會再實施 0.5 萬億美元的量化寬鬆政策。因此，我們正在處理一個擁有大量過剩流動性的系統。

And so in that context, realistically, it's hard to imagine seeing a lot of wholesale loan growth at a minimum. But frankly, that's not really a big driver of performance for us. So I don't know if that helps, but it's a good question.

因此，在這種情況下，實際上，很難想像至少會看到大量批發貸款增長。但坦率地說，這對我們來說並不是一個真正的業績驅動因素。所以我不知道這是否有幫助，但這是一個很好的問題。

It absolutely helps. And just one clarifying question on the FICC commentary. You noted this quarter's result included an adjustment to liquidity assumptions in the derivatives portfolio. I'm assuming you could help unpack what that adjustment actually entails? What prompted it? And could you help size the impact in the quarter?

它絕對有幫助。只有一個關於 FICC 評論的澄清問題。您注意到本季度的結果包括對衍生品投資組合中流動性假設的調整。我假設您可以幫助解開該調整的實際含義？是什麼促成了它？你能幫助衡量本季度的影響嗎？

I could help unpack it, but it would take another 20 minutes, which we don't really have. It's just bog-standard liquidity evaluation-type stuff in the derivatives book in terms of -- as we revise our assumptions about what the potential transaction cost would be associated with transferring certain types of positions. It's normal-course stuff that just happened to be a little bit bigger. I think fixed income was down 20%. And I think without that, it would have been down 15%, so if that helps.

我可以幫忙拆開包裝，但還需要 20 分鐘，而我們真的沒有。這只是衍生品書中的標準流動性評估類型的東西——當我們修改我們關於潛在交易成本與轉移某些類型頭寸相關的假設時。這是正常課程的東西，只是碰巧有點大。我認為固定收益下降了 20%。我認為如果沒有這個，它會下降 15%，所以如果這有幫助的話。

Next question is from Matthew O'Connor from Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Matthew O'Connor。

I was hoping to follow up on the capacity to deploy liquidity. And I guess just to kind of lean in a little bit. If we look at the growth in deposits -- and I know some of them are kind of considered noncore. But take out the loan growth and the growth in the securities book since COVID, you've got about an extra $500 billion of deposits. And how much of that do you think can be deployed into securities? And understanding that you expect loan growth to pick up, so that will go to some. But is there a way to size that $500 billion capacity in terms of bond securities?

我希望跟進部署流動性的能力。我想只是稍微傾斜一點。如果我們看看存款的增長——我知道其中一些被認為是非核心的。但是，除去 COVID 以來的貸款增長和證券賬簿的增長，您將獲得大約 5000 億美元的額外存款。您認為其中有多少可以部署到證券中？並且了解您預計貸款增長會回升，因此會有所幫助。但有沒有辦法以債券證券的形式來衡量這 5000 億美元的容量？

Yes. So I think there's a lot of factors that play into what the deployment decision is in any given moment. Obviously, as you said, loan growth. But also we will always make these decisions on a long-term economic basis, not for the purpose of generating short-term NII.

是的。因此，我認為在任何特定時刻都有很多因素會影響部署決策。顯然，正如你所說，貸款增長。但我們也將始終在長期經濟基礎上做出這些決定，而不是為了產生短期 NII。

And so when you do that, you have to think about capital volatility, drawdowns and, frankly, whether or not you see value. And that, if anything, is probably the biggest single factor right now, as I talked about earlier. It is true that the market has come a little bit more in line with our views, at least from a rate perspective, and that may lead to a little bit more deployment, all else equal right now.

因此，當你這樣做時，你必須考慮資本波動、回撤以及坦率地說，你是否看到了價值。正如我之前所說，這可能是目前最大的單一因素。確實，至少從利率的角度來看，市場已經與我們的觀點更加一致，這可能會導致更多的部署，目前所有其他條件都相同。

But when you start talking about Spread product, for example, in light of the liquidity environment that we're in and the QE numbers that I mentioned a second ago, that remains very, very compressed. And there's just not a lot of value there. So we're always -- we always try to be long-term, economically motivated there considering all the scenarios, considering risk management, considering the convexity of the balance sheet and looking at value and being tactical there. So that's really how I would think about that.

但是，當你開始談論點差產品時，例如，鑑於我們所處的流動性環境以及我一秒鐘前提到的量化寬鬆政策，它仍然非常非常壓縮。而且那裡沒有太多價值。所以我們總是——我們總是試圖在考慮到所有情況、考慮風險管理、考慮資產負債表的凸性、著眼於價值並在那裡採取戰術時，在那裡保持長期的、經濟的動機。所以我真的會這麼想。

Yes. I mean I understood on the near-term basis. But I think a lot of investors are sitting here saying, if the 10-year or really any part of the curve hits that magic point for you, what is just the capacity? So for example, if the 10-year gets to say 3%, and you're confident it's not going to go to 5%, do you have $100 billion of capacity? Is it $300 billion? Just any way to frame it longer term, appreciating that it's not what you're looking to do at this moment at these levels?

是的。我的意思是我在短期內理解。但我認為很多投資者都坐在這裡說，如果 10 年或曲線的任何部分達到了對你來說的那個魔力點，那麼容量到底是多少？例如，如果 10 年是 3%，而你確信它不會達到 5%，那麼你有 1000 億美元的產能嗎？是3000億美元嗎？只是以任何方式來構建它的長期框架，欣賞這不是你目前在這些級別上想要做的事情嗎？

Yes. No, I get the question and...

是的。不，我明白了這個問題，然後...

We can easily do $200 billion.

我們可以輕鬆做到 2000 億美元。

Yes. I mean I get the question. I get why you want to know. I guess I just feel -- think like for a company of our sophistication and given how carefully we think about this stuff, the idea of a particular target at which we would deploy a particular amount, of course, Jamie's right. But it's always going to be situational. It's always going to be a function of why the rate is where it is. I mean in your question, you alluded to it. It's like if the 10-year notes are at 3% and we're sure it's not going to 5%, but then where is the rest of the yield curve? What are the other options? What's going on in that moment? So it's -- there's -- we're always going to be situational and tactical about it.

是的。我的意思是我明白了這個問題。我明白你為什麼想知道。我想我只是覺得——想想我們的老練公司，考慮到我們對這些東西的仔細考慮，我們將部署特定數量的特定目標的想法，當然，傑米是對的。但這總是視情況而定。它總是取決於為什麼利率在哪裡。我的意思是在你的問題中，你提到了它。這就像如果 10 年期票據的利率為 3%，我們確定它不會達到 5%，那麼收益率曲線的其餘部分在哪裡？還有哪些其他選擇？那一刻發生了什麼？所以它 - 有 - 我們總是會根據情況和戰術來處理它。

That's helpful. And then can I just squeeze in? You've announced a bunch of kind of what most of us would characterize as relatively small acquisitions, some this quarter and, obviously, looking back for the full year. Is there something -- is there a way you can kind of size the capital impact of that? I know most of the terms weren't disclosed individually. But any way to frame kind of the capital and financial impact? And then just lastly, remind us like what is the driving force when you look for a deal? Because some of the deals you kind of look at and you're like, how does that fit into broader JPMorgan Chase?

這很有幫助。然後我可以擠進去嗎？你已經宣布了一系列我們大多數人認為是相對較小的收購，本季度有一些，顯然，回顧全年。有什麼東西——有沒有一種方法可以衡量其對資本的影響？我知道大部分條款都沒有單獨披露。但是有什麼方法可以確定資本和財務影響嗎？最後，提醒我們，當您尋找交易時，驅動力是什麼？因為有些交易你看過並且你喜歡，它如何適應更廣泛的摩根大通？

Yes, I think it's...

是的，我認為這是...

The capital impact in total isn't that big a deal. No, we're not going to disclose any more, nor is the immediate financial impact. And each one is different. So in consumer, Jeremy already said, it's more about lifestyle, travel, lounges, millennial, stuff like that. In asset management, it's products. There was tax-efficient products, ESG products, timber products, stuff like that. And then between Nutmeg and C6 and stuff like that, that is the longer-term view about us trying to get positioned into retail overseas over 10 years if we can.

總體而言，資本影響並不是什麼大問題。不，我們不會再披露，直接的財務影響也不會。而且每一個都是不同的。所以在消費者方面，傑里米已經說過，更多的是關於生活方式、旅行、休息室、千禧一代，諸如此類。在資產管理中，它是產品。有節稅產品、ESG 產品、木材產品，諸如此類。然後在 Nutmeg 和 C6 之類的東西之間，如果可以的話，這是關於我們試圖在 10 年內進入海外零售市場的長期觀點。

Next one is coming from Gerard Cassidy from RBC Capital Markets.

下一位來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Gerard Cassidy。

Jeremy, you were saying that when we were talking earlier about the potential SLR changes and such, and we haven't seen anything in Quarles' leaving today. But you mentioned about maybe the Fed is focused on the Basel III endgame that's coming very soon here. Can you share with us, from your guys' perspective, what are you focusing in on with the Basel III final rules and regulations that could affect your growth going forward?

Jeremy，你是說當我們早些時候談論潛在的 SLR 變化等時，我們還沒有看到 Quarles 今天離開的任何事情。但你提到美聯儲可能專注於即將到來的巴塞爾協議 III 的最後階段。您能否與我們分享一下，從你們的角度來看，您對巴塞爾協議 III 最終規則和法規的關注重點是什麼，這些規則和法規可能會影響您未來的發展？

Yes. So I think -- I mean, the thing about the Basel III endgame is that you need to essentially deal simultaneously with the Basel floors, the Basel standardized floors and the Collins floor. So you need to simultaneously -- so from the perspective of the staff that's working on this stuff, they have a tough challenge to simultaneously put in place a U.S. rule, which is Basel compliant, while also complying with the Collins floor standardized RWA minimum. And so that's complicated, and it's hard and it's quite technical. And that sort of explains why it's taking a little bit longer than we might have otherwise thought.

是的。所以我認為 - 我的意思是，關於巴塞爾 III 殘局的事情是，您需要基本上同時處理巴塞爾地板、巴塞爾標準化地板和柯林斯地板。所以你需要同時——所以從從事這些工作的工作人員的角度來看，他們面臨著一項艱鉅的挑戰，即同時制定符合巴塞爾標準的美國規則，同時遵守柯林斯地板標準化 RWA 最低標準。所以這很複雜，很難，而且技術性很強。這就解釋了為什麼它比我們想像的要長一點。

In terms of the impact of that on our long-term growth, I mean, at a high level, it's unlikely to be significant. I think that the related point is whether or not there are some changes as part of that or contemporaneously with that to these sort of non-risk-sensitive size-based constraints, like G-SIB and SLR, where obviously, most prominently in the case of G-SIB, it's really getting pretty extreme in terms of the growth in the score for reasons that really have nothing to do with what the original design of the metric was and to a very significant degree, are driven by the expansion of the system that we've seen in the last 18 months. So that's why we believe that, that should be addressed as was contemplated in the original rule.

就這對我們長期增長的影響而言，我的意思是，在高水平上，它不太可能是顯著的。我認為相關的一點是，對於這些非風險敏感的基於大小的約束，例如 G-SIB 和 SLR，是否有一些變化作為其中的一部分或同時發生變化，顯然，最突出的是以 G-SIB 為例，就分數的增長而言，它確實變得非常極端，原因與指標的原始設計無關，並且在很大程度上是由我們在過去 18 個月中看到的系統。所以這就是為什麼我們認為應該按照原始規則中的設想來解決這個問題。

And so across all of those potential changes, you could see us doing a little bit of optimization in response to those. You can imagine that Basel III endgame in terms of standardized and advanced and the impact on different products might make some things a little bit more capital efficient, and others, a little bit less capital efficient at the margin. But we're a big, diversified company. We're pretty good at navigating this stuff. So when we have clarity, we'll make the necessary tweaks.

因此，在所有這些潛在變化中，您可以看到我們針對這些變化進行了一些優化。您可以想像，巴塞爾協議 III 在標準化和先進性方面的殘局以及對不同產品的影響可能會使某些事情的資本效率更高一些，而另一些則在邊際上的資本效率會降低一些。但我們是一家大型、多元化的公司。我們非常擅長導航這些東西。因此，當我們明確時，我們將進行必要的調整。

Very good. And then obviously, you and the industry have seen really good deposit growth on a year-over-year basis. I think your deposits are up 20% all in. You talked specifically about retail being the #1 market share in retail deposits.

很好。然後很明顯，您和整個行業的存款同比增長都非常好。我認為您的存款全部上漲了 20%。您特別談到零售是零售存款中的第一大市場份額。

When the Fed ends QE, assuming it does sometime by the middle of next year -- and I'm not asking you guys to forecast where your deposits are going to be. But just higher level, should we anticipate that deposits could actually decline? Or no, that they are going to be so sticky, even with the liquidity that everybody carries, that we shouldn't really see a decline in deposits after QE ends, let's call it, second half of next year?

當美聯儲結束量化寬鬆時，假設它會在明年年中的某個時候結束——我並不是要你們預測你們的存款將在哪裡。但只是更高的水平，我們是否應該預期存款實際上會下降？或者不，它們會變得如此粘稠，即使每個人都有流動性，我們不應該真的看到量化寬鬆結束後存款下降，我們稱之為明年下半年？

Yes. So I think there's a couple of factors in here. So let's, for the sake of argument, set RRP aside for a second and hold that constant. If you just look at the impact of QE on system-wide deposits -- we talk about tapering, but as I said earlier, tapering still involves another $0.5 trillion of system expansion between now and the end of tapering or rather between the start of tapering and the end of tapering.

是的。所以我認為這裡有幾個因素。因此，為了爭論起見，讓我們先將 RRP 放在一邊並保持不變。如果你只看量化寬鬆對全系統存款的影響——我們談論的是縮減，但正如我之前所說，縮減仍然涉及從現在到縮減結束，或者更確切地說是從縮減開始之間再進行 0.5 萬億美元的系統擴張和逐漸變細的結束。

If the Fed follows the same type of trajectory that it followed last time, there would be an extended pause between the end of QE and the beginning of QT. And again, setting RRP aside for a second, it would only really be with the beginning of QT that you would expect the size of the system deposit base to start shrinking. And I think the timing last time, if I remember correctly, was something like 22 months between the end of QE and the beginning of QT. Now of course, RRP could bounce around, and there could be other factors. But at a high level, that's how we're thinking about it.

如果美聯儲遵循與上次相同的軌跡，那麼在 QE 結束和 QT 開始之間會有一個延長的停頓。再一次，暫時擱置 RRP，只有在 QT 開始時，您才會期望系統存款基礎的規模開始縮小。如果我沒記錯的話，我認為上次的時間大約是從 QE 結束到 QT 開始之間的 22 個月。當然，現在 RRP 可能會反彈，並且可能還有其他因素。但在高層次上，這就是我們的想法。

And I -- I would just add my two cents. I think they'll have to go quicker than that, and they'll have to reverse some of it. So you're talking about -- we're still going to increase deposits for a year, and then there'll be a fairly large reduction over a 2- or 3-year period, which we should be prepared for.

而我——我只想加上我的兩分錢。我認為他們必須比這更快，他們必須扭轉一些局面。所以你在說 - 我們仍然會增加一年的存款，然後在 2 或 3 年期間會有相當大的減少，我們應該為此做好準備。

Next question is from Charles Peabody from Portales Partners.

下一個問題來自 Portales Partners 的 Charles Peabody。

I wanted to sort of get a progress report on your new headquarter building. Specifically, what's the move-in -- projected move-in date? Or has that been affected by the pandemic? Secondly, are there costs -- noticeable costs running through 2021 expense structure for that build out? And does that tick up noticeably when you move in? And then thirdly, what's the plan for unloading the properties that you'll be vacating? And how is that being affected by the current real estate market?

我想獲得一份關於你的新總部大樓的進度報告。具體來說，什麼是布展 - 預計布展日期？還是受疫情影響？其次，是否有成本——貫穿 2021 年費用結構的顯著成本？當你搬進來時，這是否會明顯增加？第三，卸載您將要騰出的房產的計劃是什麼？當前的房地產市場對這有什麼影響？

Yes. So the plan is on schedule, move-in date, 20 -- I think 2025. There are no material expense. Of course, there's duplicate expenses, and we have to sell the building and stuff like that. But there's nothing material to our shareholders we need to disclose.

是的。所以計劃如期進行，搬入日期，20 - 我認為是 2025。沒有材料費用。當然，有重複的費用，我們必須出售建築物和類似的東西。但是我們不需要向我們的股東披露任何重大信息。

Operator, any other questions?

接線員，還有其他問題嗎？

That is coming from Andrew Lim from Societe General.

這來自法國興業銀行的 Andrew Lim。

And so you talked, Jamie, about how you're focusing on inflation. Just wondering if you could outline what you're looking at exactly metric-wise across your businesses to signal to you that inflation is actually materializing as a concern. And how would that pan out versus your expectations? And in terms of like how we deal with it, so if it does materialize as a concern, is there anything that you can do to try and protect the bank against inflationary forces there?

傑米，你談到了你如何關注通貨膨脹。只是想知道您是否可以概述您在整個業務中所看到的準確指標，以向您表明通貨膨脹實際上正在成為一個令人擔憂的問題。與您的期望相比，這將如何發展？就我們如何處理它而言，如果它確實成為一個問題，你能做些什麼來保護銀行免受通貨膨脹的影響嗎？

Yes. Well, I mean I think we should look at the big picture here, which I think it's always important. I mean 2 years ago, we were facing COVID, verging a great depression, global pandemic. And that's all in the back mirror, which is good. So by, hopefully, a year from now, there will be no supply chain problem. The pandemic will become endemic. And I think it's very good to have good, healthy growth, which we have. And I think it's -- be good to have unemployment at 4%. It's good that their jobs are open. I think it's going to waste window? And I think there's too much focus on -- and none of this changes how we run the business. Which we add clients all the time, consumer, card, auto, deposits, real estate, small business, large companies and stuff like that, which is really the underlying thing that drives JPMorgan. It's not whether they take the revolver from 25% or 27%.

是的。好吧，我的意思是我認為我們應該在這裡看大局，我認為這總是很重要的。我的意思是 2 年前，我們正面臨新冠病毒，瀕臨大蕭條，全球大流行。這一切都在後視鏡中，這很好。因此，希望從現在起一年後，不會出現供應鏈問題。大流行將成為地方病。我認為我們擁有良好、健康的增長是非常好的。而且我認為將失業率保持在 4% 是件好事。他們的工作是開放的，這很好。我認為它會浪費窗口？而且我認為有太多的關注 - 這些都沒有改變我們經營業務的方式。我們一直在添加客戶，消費者、信用卡、汽車、存款、房地產、小企業、大公司等等，這確實是推動摩根大通的根本因素。這不是他們是否從 25% 或 27% 拿走左輪手槍。

So having said all of that, yes, and I'm not focused on inflation. We simply are pointing out, well, first of all, you have inflation. It's 4%. It's been 4% now for the better part of a couple of quarters. And in my view, unlikely to be lower than that next quarter or the quarter after that.

說了這麼多，是的，我並不關注通貨膨脹。我們只是在指出，嗯，首先，你有通貨膨脹。是 4%。在幾個季度的大部分時間裡，現在已經是 4%。在我看來，不太可能低於下個季度或之後的季度。

The only question is, does it start to ease after that with supply chains and wages, more people looking for work. Or does it continue to go up? And of course, we prepare for probabilities and eventualities. And one of those probabilities is that it might go higher than people think, that they'll have to tamp down. I doubt that will happen before late 2022.

唯一的問題是，在供應鍊和工資、更多人找工作之後，情況是否開始緩解。還是繼續上漲？當然，我們為概率和不測事件做好準備。其中一個可能性是它可能會比人們想像的要高，他們將不得不夯實。我懷疑這會在 2022 年底之前發生。

In the meantime, I think it's unbelievable that we're getting out of this thing and have 4% unemployment. And you can have good growth with some inflation, and that's okay. I think the people are always focusing too much on immediate concerns. If you have inflation of 4% or 5%, we're still going to open deposit accounts and checking accounts and grow our business.

與此同時，我認為令人難以置信的是，我們正在擺脫這件事並有 4% 的失業率。你可以在一些通貨膨脹的情況下獲得良好的增長，這沒關係。我認為人們總是過於關注眼前的問題。如果通貨膨脹率為 4% 或 5%，我們仍將開設存款賬戶和支票賬戶並發展我們的業務。

I also should point out because this is always in the back of my mind, of our $30 billion of revenues, $20 billion is subscription revenues: Asset Management; Commercial Banking; Consumer Banking, which is pretty good; wholesale payments, security services, custody. And so we're pretty proud with the people who accomplished all this. If you look at the actual underlying numbers we're getting earnings per second, more customers, more accounts, more share. And at the end of the day, that is what drives everything.

我還應該指出，因為這一直在我的腦海中，在我們 300 億美元的收入中，200 億美元是訂閱收入：資產管理；商業銀行；個人銀行業務，相當不錯；批發支付、安全服務、託管。因此，我們為完成這一切的人們感到非常自豪。如果您查看實際的基本數字，我們每秒獲得的收入、更多的客戶、更多的賬戶、更多的份額。歸根結底，這就是驅動一切的動力。

Okay. That's great. So it seems like you're taking a benign view that it's a manageable -- it's not going to get out of hand.

好的。那太棒了。因此，您似乎持有一種良性的觀點，認為它是可控的——它不會失控。

No. No. It's the opposite. I'm telling you I don't -- no, it's the opposite. I'm telling you, I don't know. We're prepared for all eventualities. There may be a fat tail of inflation. And one of the things about our balance sheet -- you guys talked about liquidity and stuff like that. One of the fat tails a bank should be -- the banks should be worried about is high inflation and high rates. And have -- being very liquid protects us more against that than other things.

不，不，恰恰相反。我告訴你我沒有——不，恰恰相反。我告訴你，我不知道。我們為所有可能發生的情況做好了準備。通脹可能會有肥尾。關於我們的資產負債表的一件事——你們談到了流動性和類似的東西。銀行應該是肥尾之一——銀行應該擔心的是高通脹和高利率。並且擁有 - 流動性非常強，比其他東西更能保護我們免受這種傷害。

Right. Got it. And just a short follow-on question really. Could you update us on the amount of excess provisions you've got versus your base case economic scenario? You've given that number in the past. And perhaps a bit of color also on how that base case has changed over the quarter, if it has indeed.

對。知道了。真的只是一個簡短的後續問題。您能否向我們介紹您的超額準備金數量與您的基本經濟情景之間的關係？你以前給過那個號碼。如果確實發生了變化，那麼本季度基本情況如何發生變化，也許還有一點色彩。

Yes. So I think the base case -- the central case has probably actually gotten a tiny bit worse quarter-on-quarter in light of the revisions in GDP outlook. But as you know, the framework also involves looking at probability-weighted scenarios. And as I said in the prepared remarks, the sort of less extreme downside scenarios contributed a bit to the release this quarter.

是的。因此，我認為基本情況 - 鑑於 GDP 前景的修正，中心情況實際上可能比上一季度更差。但如您所知，該框架還涉及查看概率加權場景。正如我在準備好的評論中所說，這種不太極端的下行情景對本季度的發布有所貢獻。

In terms of sizing the overall balance, again, as I said in the prepared remarks, they remain a little bit elevated relative to what they would be if we had this type of economic performance with none of the COVID-related unusual features, i.e., uncertainty about the virus as much as we are optimistic about that right now, or uncertainty about labor market conditions. Or the fact that even though a lot of the -- essentially all the federal-level unemployment assistance has now rolled off and most of the states have, too, there's still some forms of assistance.

同樣，正如我在準備好的評論中所說，就總體平衡的規模而言，如果我們擁有這種類型的經濟表現而沒有任何與 COVID 相關的不尋常特徵，即病毒的不確定性與我們目前對此的樂觀程度一樣高，或者勞動力市場狀況的不確定性。或者事實上，即使很多 - 基本上所有聯邦一級的失業援助現在已經推出，而且大多數州也有，但仍然有一些形式的援助。

The mortgage foreclosure moratoriums, student loan stuff, rent moratoria, stuff like that, that don't roll off until later in the year. So there's a number of factors in the environment that are still unusual, which do contribute to slightly elevated reserves relative to what we would otherwise have. And as things play out, those will develop.

抵押止贖暫停，學生貸款的東西，租金暫停，諸如此類的東西，直到今年晚些時候才會推出。因此，環境中仍有許多不尋常的因素，這些因素確實導致相對於我們原本擁有的儲備略有增加。隨著事情的發展，這些會發展。

Jeremy, just to interrupt real quickly. I got to go because I'm out of town. I have meetings I have to go to, but you guys should continue. And folks, thanks for listening to us, and we'll talk to you all soon.

傑里米，只是為了快速打斷。我必須去，因為我不在城裡。我有一些會議要參加，但你們應該繼續。伙計們，感謝您收聽我們，我們將很快與您交談。

All right. Thanks, Jamie.

好的。謝謝，傑米。

And by that, we have no further questions waiting.

至此，我們沒有進一步的問題等待。

Okay. Thanks very much.

好的。非常感謝。

Everyone, that marks the end of our call for today. You may now disconnect. Thank you for joining. Enjoy the rest of your day.

大家，這標誌著我們今天的呼籲結束。您現在可以斷開連接。感謝您的加入。享受你一天的剩餘時間。