摩根大通 (JPM) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to JPMorgan Chase's Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. This call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) We will now go live to the presentation. Please stand by.

早上好，女士們，先生們。歡迎參加摩根大通 2022 年第二季度財報電話會議。正在錄製此通話。 （操作員說明）我們現在將進行演示。請待命。

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to JPMorgan Chase's Chairman and CEO, Jamie Dimon; and Chief Financial Officer, Jeremy Barnum. Mr. Barnum, please go ahead.

在這個時候，我想把電話轉給摩根大通的董事長兼首席執行官傑米戴蒙；和首席財務官傑里米·巴納姆。巴納姆先生，請繼續。

Thanks, operator. Good morning, everyone. The presentation is available on our website, and please refer to the disclaimer in the back.

謝謝，接線員。大家，早安。該演示文稿可在我們的網站上找到，請參閱後面的免責聲明。

Starting on Page 1. The firm reported net income of $8.6 billion, EPS of $2.76, on revenue of $31.6 billion and delivered an ROTCE of 17%.

從第 1 頁開始。該公司報告的淨收入為 86 億美元，每股收益為 2.76 美元，收入為 316 億美元，ROTCE 為 17%。

Touching on a few highlights. We had another quarter of strong performance in Markets which generated revenue of nearly $8 billion. Credit is still quite healthy and net charge-offs remain historically low. And there continue to be positive trends in loan growth across our businesses, with average loans up 7% year-on-year and 2% quarter-on-quarter.

談到幾個亮點。我們在市場上又取得了一個季度的強勁表現，創造了近 80 億美元的收入。信貸仍然相當健康，淨沖銷仍然處於歷史低位。我們業務的貸款增長繼續呈現積極趨勢，平均貸款同比增長 7%，環比增長 2%。

On Page 2, we have some more detail. Revenue of $31.6 billion was up $235 million or 1% year-on-year. NII ex Markets was up $2.8 billion or 26%, driven by higher rates and balance sheet growth. NIR ex Markets was down $3.6 billion or 26%, largely driven by lower IB fees and higher card acquisition costs. And Markets revenue was up $1 billion or 15% year-on-year.

在第 2 頁，我們有更多細節。收入 316 億美元，同比增長 2.35 億美元或 1%。受利率上升和資產負債表增長的推動，NII ex Markets 增長 28 億美元或 26%。 NIR ex Markets 下降了 36 億美元或 26%，主要是由於 IB 費用降低和卡購置成本增加。市場收入同比增長 10 億美元或 15%。

Expenses of $18.7 billion were up $1.1 billion or 6% year-on-year, predominantly on higher investments and structural expenses, partially offset by lower volume and revenue-related expenses. And credit costs were $1.1 billion, which included net charge-offs of $657 million and reserve builds of $428 million, reflecting loan growth as well as a modest deterioration in the economic outlook.

187 億美元的支出同比增長 11 億美元或 6%，主要是由於投資和結構性支出增加，部分被數量和與收入相關的支出減少所抵消。信貸成本為 11 億美元，其中包括 6.57 億美元的淨沖銷和 4.28 億美元的儲備金，反映了貸款增長以及經濟前景的適度惡化。

On to balance sheet and capital on Page 3. Let's start by talking about our plans for capital management over the coming quarters. The new 4% SCB will raise our standardized CET1 requirement to 12% effective in the fourth quarter. And the 4% G-SIB effective in 1Q '23 further raises this requirement to 12.5%.

關於第 3 頁的資產負債表和資本。讓我們先談談我們在未來幾個季度的資本管理計劃。新的 4% SCB 將在第四季度將我們的標準化 CET1 要求提高到 12%。 23 年第一季度生效的 4% G-SIB 進一步將這一要求提高到 12.5%。

At Investor Day, we said that we expected SCB to be higher and made it clear that in the near term, share buybacks would be significantly reduced in order to build capital for the increased requirements. In light of the SCB coming in even higher than expected, we have paused buybacks for the near term.

在投資者日，我們表示我們預計渣打銀行會走高，並明確表示在短期內，股票回購將顯著減少，以便為增加的需求積累資金。鑑於 SCB 的股價甚至高於預期，我們已暫停近期的回購。

As we discussed at Investor Day and as we show at the bottom of this presentation page, our organic capital generation allows us to rapidly build capital in excess of future requirements with a current target of roughly 12.5% in the fourth quarter. Any access over the regulatory requirements offers us protection against a range of economic scenarios with room to deploy capital in line with our strategic priorities. We have a long established track record of balance sheet discipline across the company, and this quarter's RWA reduction shows evidence of this discipline.

正如我們在投資者日和本演示頁面底部所討論的那樣，我們的有機資本生成使我們能夠快速建立超過未來需求的資本，目前第四季度的目標約為 12.5%。任何對監管要求的訪問都為我們提供了針對一系列經濟情景的保護，並有空間根據我們的戰略重點部署資本。我們在整個公司的資產負債表紀律方面有著悠久的歷史記錄，本季度 RWA 的減少顯示了這一紀律的證據。

Turning to this quarter's results. You can see that our CET1 ratio of 12.2% and is up 30 basis points from the prior quarter. RWA was down approximately $44 billion with growth in franchise lending being more than offset by the combination of active balance sheet management and the normalization of market risk RWA from the first quarter. CET1 capital was slightly down as earnings were offset by distributions and the impact of AOCI drawdowns in our AFS portfolio.

轉向本季度的結果。您可以看到我們的 CET1 比率為 12.2%，比上一季度上升了 30 個基點。 RWA 下降了約 440 億美元，特許貸款的增長被積極的資產負債表管理和第一季度市場風險 RWA 的正常化所抵消。 CET1 資本略有下降，因為收益被分配和我們 AFS 投資組合中 AOCI 提款的影響所抵消。

Now let's go to our businesses, starting with Consumer & Community Banking on Page 4. Before I review CCB's performance, let me touch on what we're seeing in our data regarding the health of the U.S. consumer.

現在讓我們談談我們的業務，從第 4 頁的消費者和社區銀行業務開始。在我回顧建行的業績之前，讓我談談我們在數據中看到的有關美國消費者健康狀況的內容。

Spend is still healthy with combined debit and credit spend up 15% year-on-year. We see the impact of inflation and higher nondiscretionary spend across income segments. Notably, the average consumer is spending 35% more year-on-year on gas and approximately 6% more on recurring bills and other nondiscretionary categories. At the same time, we have yet to observe a pullback in discretionary spending, including in the lower income segments, with travel and dining growing a robust 34% year-on-year overall.

支出仍然健康，借記卡和貸記卡支出同比增長 15%。我們看到了通貨膨脹和更高的非可自由支配支出的影響。值得注意的是，普通消費者在天然氣上的支出同比增加 35%，在經常性賬單和其他非自由裁量類別上的支出增加約 6%。與此同時，我們尚未觀察到可自由支配支出的回落，包括在低收入領域，旅遊和餐飲整體同比增長 34%。

And with spending growing faster than incomes, median deposit balances are down across income segments for the first time since the pandemic started, though cash buffers still remain elevated. With that as a backdrop, this quarter, CCB reported net income of $3.1 billion on revenue of $12.6 billion, which was down 1% year-on-year.

由於支出增長快於收入增長，自大流行開始以來，各收入領域的存款餘額中位數首次下降，但現金緩衝仍然較高。在此背景下，本季度，建行報告淨利潤為 31 億美元，收入為 126 億美元，同比下降 1%。

In Consumer & Business Banking, revenue was up 9% year-on-year, driven by growth in deposits. Deposits were up 13% year-on-year and 2% quarter-on-quarter. And client investment assets were down 7% year-on-year, driven by market performance, partially offset by flows.

在存款增長的推動下，消費者和商業銀行業務的收入同比增長 9%。存款按年上升 13%，按季上升 2%。在市場表現的推動下，客戶投資資產同比下降 7%，部分被流量抵消。

Home Lending revenue was down 26% year-on-year as the rate environment drove both lower production revenue and tighter spreads, partially offset by higher net servicing revenue. And mortgage origination volume of $22 billion was down 45%.

由於利率環境導致生產收入下降和利差收窄，房屋貸款收入同比下降 26%，部分被淨服務收入增加所抵消。 220 億美元的抵押貸款發起量下降了 45%。

Moving to Card & Auto. Revenue was down 6% year-on-year, reflecting higher acquisition costs on strong new card account originations and lower auto lease income, largely offset by higher card NII. Card outstandings were up 16% and revolving balances were up 9%. And in auto, originations were $7 billion, down 44% from record levels a year ago due to continued lack of vehicle supply and rising rates while loans were up 2%.

轉向卡片和汽車。收入同比下降 6%，反映了強勁的新卡賬戶發起和較低的汽車租賃收入導致更高的購置成本，這在很大程度上被更高的卡 NII 所抵消。信用卡未償餘額增長 16%，循環餘額增長 9%。在汽車領域，由於汽車供應持續缺乏和利率上升，貸款額上升 2%，因此貸款總額為 70 億美元，比一年前的創紀錄水平下降 44%。

Expenses of $7.7 billion were up 9% year-on-year driven by higher investments and structural expenses, partially offset by lower volume and revenue-related expenses.

由於投資和結構性費用增加，77 億美元的費用同比增長 9%，但部分被數量和收入相關費用的減少所抵消。

In terms of actual credit performance this quarter, credit costs were $761 million, reflecting net charge-offs of $611 million, down $121 million year-on-year, driven by card, and a reserve build of $150 million in card driven by loan growth.

就本季度的實際信貸表現而言，信貸成本為 7.61 億美元，反映了信用卡淨沖銷 6.11 億美元，同比減少 1.21 億美元，以及貸款增長推動的信用卡儲備增加 1.5 億美元.

Next to CIB on Page 5. CIB reported net income of $3.7 billion on revenue of $11.9 billion. There were a number of notable items this quarter, including net markdowns on certain equity investments of approximately $370 million with about $345 million reflected in payments and markdowns on the bridge book of approximately $250 million in IB revenue.

在第 5 頁的 CIB 旁邊。CIB 報告的淨收入為 37 億美元，收入為 119 億美元。本季度有許多值得注意的項目，包括約 3.7 億美元的某些股權投資的淨減價，其中約 3.45 億美元反映在支付和 IB 收入約 2.5 億美元的過橋賬簿上的減價。

Investment Banking revenue of $1.4 billion was down 61% year-on-year or down 53%, excluding the bridge book markdowns. IB fees were down 54% versus an all-time record quarter last year. We maintained our #1 rank with a year-to-date wallet share of 8.1%. In advisory, fees were down 28%, reflecting a decline in announced activity which started in the first quarter.

投資銀行業務收入為 14 億美元，同比下降 61% 或下降 53%，其中不包括過橋賬面降價。與去年創紀錄的季度相比，IB 費用下降了 54%。我們以 8.1% 的年初至今錢包份額保持了我們的第一名。在諮詢方面，費用下降了 28%，反映了從第一季度開始的已宣布活動的下降。

The volatile market resulted in muted issuance in our underwriting businesses. Underwriting fees were down 53% for debt and down 77% for equity. In terms of outlook, while our existing pipeline remains healthy, conversion of the deal backlog may be challenging if the current headwinds continue. Lending revenue of $410 million was up 79% versus the prior year, driven by gains on mark-to-market hedges as well as higher loan balances.

動蕩的市場導致我們的承銷業務發行低迷。債務承銷費下降 53%，股權承銷費下降 77%。就前景而言，雖然我們現有的管道保持健康，但如果當前的逆風繼續存在，則交易積壓的轉換可能具有挑戰性。 4.1 億美元的貸款收入比上年增長 79%，這主要得益於按市值對沖的收益以及更高的貸款餘額。

Moving to Markets. Total revenue was $7.8 billion, up 15% year-on-year in both fixed income and equities against a strong quarter last year. In fixed income, elevated volatility drove both increased client flows and robust trading results in the macro franchise, most notably in currencies and emerging markets. This was partially offset by credit unsecuritized products in a challenging spread environment. In Equity Markets, we had a strong second quarter. And again, increased volatility produced a strong performance in derivatives.

轉移到市場。總收入為 78 億美元，與去年強勁的季度相比，固定收益和股票收入同比增長 15%。在固定收益方面，波動性上升推動了宏觀業務的客戶流量增加和強勁的交易結果，尤其是在貨幣和新興市場。在具有挑戰性的利差環境中，這部分被信貸非證券化產品所抵消。在股票市場，我們第二季度表現強勁。再一次，波動性增加導致衍生品表現強勁。

Credit Adjustments & Other was a loss of $218 million, largely driven by funding spread widening. Payments revenue was $1.5 billion, up 1% year-on-year or up 25% excluding the markdowns on equity investments. The year-on-year growth was primarily driven by higher rates. Security services revenue of $1.2 billion was up 6% year-on-year, with growth in fees and higher rates more than offsetting the impact of lower market levels. Expenses of $6.7 billion were up 3% year-on-year, predominantly driven by higher structural expenses and investments, largely offset by lower revenue-related compensation.

Credit Adjustments & Other 虧損 2.18 億美元，主要是由於資金利差擴大所致。支付收入為 15 億美元，同比增長 1% 或不包括股權投資的降價增長 25%。同比增長主要是由較高的利率推動的。安全服務收入為 12 億美元，同比增長 6%，費用和費率的增長抵消了較低市場水平的影響。 67 億美元的支出同比增長 3%，主要受結構性支出和投資增加的推動，但很大程度上被與收入相關的薪酬下降所抵消。

Moving to Commercial Banking on Page 6. Commercial Banking reported net income of $1 billion. Revenue of $2.7 billion was up 8% year-on-year, driven by higher deposit margins, partially offset by lower Investment Banking revenue. Gross Investment Banking revenue of $788 million was down 32%, driven by lower debt and equity underwriting activity. Expenses of $1.2 billion were up 18% year-on-year, predominantly driven by higher structural and volume and revenue-related expenses.

轉到第 6 頁的商業銀行業務。商業銀行業務報告的淨收入為 10 億美元。收入 27 億美元，同比增長 8%，主要受存款利潤率上升的推動，但部分被投資銀行業務收入下降所抵消。由於債務和股票承銷活動減少，投資銀行業務總收入為 7.88 億美元，下降了 32%。 12 億美元的支出同比增長 18%，主要是由於結構性和數量以及與收入相關的支出增加。

Deposits were down 5% quarter-on-quarter, driven by migration of nonoperating deposits into higher-yielding alternatives, which we expect to continue given the current rate environment. Loans were up 4% sequentially. C&I loans were up 6%, reflecting higher revolver utilization and originations across Middle Market and Corporate Client Banking. CRE loans were up 3%, driven by strong loan originations and funding in commercial term lending and real estate banking. Finally, Credit costs of $209 million were largely driven by loan growth, while net charge-offs remain historically low.

存款環比下降 5%，主要是由於非經營性存款轉移到收益率更高的替代品中，鑑於當前的利率環境，我們預計這種情況將繼續存在。貸款環比增長 4%。 C&I 貸款增長 6%，反映了中間市場和企業客戶銀行業務的左輪手槍利用率和來源增加。商業定期貸款和房地產銀行業務的強勁貸款來源和資金推動 CRE 貸款增長 3%。最後，2.09 億美元的信貸成本主要是由貸款增長推動的，而淨沖銷仍處於歷史低位。

And then to complete our lines of business, AWM on Page 7. Asset & Wealth Management reported net income of $1 billion with pretax margin of 31%. For the quarter, revenue of $4.3 billion was up 5% year-on-year, driven by growth in deposits and loans as well as higher margins, partially offset by investment valuation losses versus gains in the prior year.

然後為了完成我們的業務，AWM 在第 7 頁。資產和財富管理報告的淨收入為 10 億美元，稅前利潤率為 31%。本季度的收入為 43 億美元，同比增長 5%，這主要得益於存款和貸款的增長以及利潤率的提高，但部分被投資估值損失與上一年的收益相抵消。

In addition, reductions in management fees linked to this year's market declines have been almost entirely offset by the removal of most money market fund fee waivers. Expenses of $2.9 billion were up 13% year-on-year, largely driven by investments in our private banking advisor teams, technology and asset management as well as higher volume and revenue-related expenses.

此外，與今年市場下跌相關的管理費減少幾乎完全被取消大多數貨幣市場基金費用豁免所抵消。 29 億美元的支出同比增長 13%，主要是由於對我們的私人銀行顧問團隊、技術和資產管理的投資以及與數量和收入相關的支出增加。

For the quarter, net long-term inflows of $6 billion were driven by equities. AUM of $2.7 trillion and overall client assets of $3.8 trillion, down 8% and 6% year-on-year, respectively, were predominantly driven by lower market levels, partially offset by net long-term inflows. And finally, loans were up 1% quarter-on-quarter while deposits were down 7% sequentially, driven by seasonal client tax payments.

本季度，60 億美元的長期淨流入由股票驅動。 2.7 萬億美元的資產管理規模和 3.8 萬億美元的整體客戶資產，分別同比下降 8% 和 6%，主要是受市場水平下降的推動，部分被長期淨流入所抵消。最後，在季節性客戶納稅的推動下，貸款環比增長 1%，而存款環比下降 7%。

Turning to Corporate on Page 8. Corporate reported a net loss of $174 million. Revenue was $80 million versus a loss in the prior year. NII was $324 million, up $1.3 billion, predominantly due to the impact of higher rates. And expenses of $206 million were lower by $309 million year-on-year.

轉到第 8 頁的企業。企業報告淨虧損 1.74 億美元。收入為 8000 萬美元，而去年同期為虧損。 NII 為 3.24 億美元，增加 13 億美元，主要是由於利率上升的影響。費用為 2.06 億美元，同比減少 3.09 億美元。

Next, the outlook on Page 9. You will recall that at Investor Day, we expected NII ex Markets for 2022 to be in excess of $56 billion. We now expect it to be in excess of $58 billion, reflecting Fed funds reaching 3.5% by year-end. We still expect adjusted expense to be approximately $77 billion and the card net charge-off rate to be less than 2% for 2022.

接下來是第 9 頁的展望。您會記得在投資者日，我們預計 2022 年 NII ex Markets 將超過 560 億美元。我們現在預計它將超過 580 億美元，這反映出聯邦基金到年底將達到 3.5%。我們仍預計 2022 年調整後的費用約為 770 億美元，信用卡淨沖銷率將低於 2%。

So to wrap up, the company's performance was strong again this quarter in what was a complex operating environment. As we look forward, we are mindful of the elevated uncertainty in the global economy, but we feel confident that we are prepared and well positioned for a broad range of outcomes.

總而言之，在復雜的運營環境中，公司本季度的表現再次強勁。展望未來，我們注意到全球經濟的不確定性增加，但我們相信我們已為廣泛的結果做好準備並做好充分準備。

With that, operator, please open up the line for Q&A.

有了這個，接線員，請打開問答線路。

Please stand by. And the first question is coming from Steve Chubak from Wolfe Research.

請待命。第一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Steve Chubak。

I wanted to start off with a question on capital targets. I don't believe you've provided an update on your firm-wide CET1 target of 12.5% to 13%. And given the new higher SCB, future increases in your G-SIB surcharge to 4.5%, your regulatory minimum is slated to increase beyond 13% by 2024, which is also beyond the horizon reflected on Slide 3. And just given that high regulatory minimum, elevated SCB volatility in recent years, what do you believe is an appropriate capital target for you to manage to from here over the long term?

我想從一個關於資本目標的問題開始。我不相信你們提供了關於你們公司範圍內 12.5% 到 13% 的 CET1 目標的最新信息。鑑於新的更高 SCB，未來您的 G-SIB 附加費將增加到 4.5%，到 2024 年，您的最低監管要求將增加到 13% 以上，這也超出了幻燈片 3 所反映的範圍。鑑於監管最低要求很高，近年來渣打銀行的波動性上升，您認為從長遠來看，您認為合適的資本目標是什麼？

Yes, Steve, good question. So obviously, you're right in the sense that we didn't talk about 2024 on the slide. And as you note, have 2 G-SIB bucket increases coming, one in the first quarter of '23 and the other one in the first quarter of '24. So we had worked all that out on Investor Day and talked about 12.5% to 13% target, which implies sort of a modest buffer to be used flexibly based on what we expected would be some increase in SCB. Obviously, the increase came in a bit higher than expected.

是的，史蒂夫，好問題。所以很明顯，你是對的，我們沒有在幻燈片上談論 2024 年。正如您所注意到的，即將有 2 個 G-SIB 存儲桶增加，一個在 23 年第一季度，另一個在 24 年第一季度。因此，我們在投資者日解決了所有這些問題，並談到了 12.5% 至 13% 的目標，這意味著可以根據我們對 SCB 的一些增長的預期靈活使用適度的緩衝。顯然，增幅略高於預期。

So for now, we're really focused on 1Q '23. Of course, all else equal, you would assume that, that 12.5% to 13% for 2024 would be a little bit higher. But there is another round of SCB, and that's a long way away. And as you know and as you can see, there's a lot of organic capital generation. So we'll kind of cross that bridge when we come to it.

所以現在，我們真的專注於 23 年第一季度。當然，在其他條件相同的情況下，您會假設 2024 年的 12.5% 到 13% 會高一點。但是還有另一輪SCB，而且還有很長的路要走。正如你所知道的，正如你所看到的，有很多有機資本的產生。所以當我們到達它時，我們會越過那座橋。

And we intend to drive that SCB down by reducing the things that created it.

我們打算通過減少創造它的東西來壓低 SCB。

Fair enough. And just for my follow-up, on the loan growth outlook. Loan growth continues to surprise positively. Certainly the tone, Jeremy, that you conveyed was quite constructive despite the challenging macro backdrop. But with companies just citing higher inventory levels, declining personal savings rates, growing inflationary pressures, whole list of potential headwinds that could negatively impact loan growth from here, I was hoping you could just speak to the outlook for loan growth across some of the different businesses. And what do you see as a sustainable run rate of loan growth over the medium term?

很公平。只是為了我的後續行動，關於貸款增長前景。貸款增長繼續令人驚喜。當然，傑里米，儘管宏觀背景充滿挑戰，你所傳達的語氣還是很有建設性的。但是，由於公司只是列舉了更高的庫存水平、個人儲蓄率下降、通脹壓力不斷增加，以及可能對貸款增長產生負面影響的全部潛在不利因素，我希望你能談談一些不同領域的貸款增長前景企業。您認為中期貸款增長的可持續運行率是多少？

Yes. So we've talked, as you know, Steve, about sort of a mid -- high single digits loan growth expectation for this year. And that outlook is more or less still in place. Obviously, we only have half the year left. We continue to see quite robust C&I growth, both higher revolver utilization and new account origination. We're also seeing good growth in CRE. And of course, we continue to see very robust card loan growth, which is nice to see.

是的。因此，正如你所知，史蒂夫，我們已經談到了今年的中高個位數貸款增長預期。這種前景或多或少仍然存在。顯然，我們只剩下半年了。我們繼續看到相當強勁的 C&I 增長，包括更高的左輪手槍利用率和新賬戶的創建。我們也看到 CRE 的良好增長。當然，我們繼續看到非常強勁的信用卡貸款增長，這很高興。

Outlook beyond this year, I'm not going to give now. And obviously, as you note, it's going to be very much a function of the economic environment, so...

今年以後的展望，我現在不打算放棄。顯然，正如你所指出的，這將很大程度上取決於經濟環境，所以......

Yes. The only thing I would like to add is that certain loan growth is discretionary and portfolio-based, think of mortgages, and there's a good chance we're going to drive it down substantially.

是的。我唯一想補充的是，某些貸款增長是可自由支配的和基於投資組合的，想想抵押貸款，我們很有可能會大幅降低它。

The next question is coming from Glenn Schorr from Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Glenn Schorr。

I wonder if you could just talk to how you balance it all. Meaning JPMorgan's always growth-minded. You underwrite for returns over the cycle, I get that. But is -- given some of the potential bad stuff going on in the world that you've noted in some of the articles you've been in and at the conference, is there any point where that rougher outlook has you tightening the underwriting box to build capital and liquidity faster? Or do you think you can get there just through what you've laid out today on the buyback pause?

我想知道你是否可以談談你如何平衡這一切。這意味著摩根大通始終具有增長意識。你承保整個週期的回報，我明白了。但是，鑑於您在參加過的一些文章和會議上提到的世界上正在發生的一些潛在的壞事，是否有任何情況下，更粗略的前景會讓您收緊承保範圍更快地建立資本和流動性？或者你認為你可以通過你今天在回購暫停時所製定的內容來實現這一目標嗎？

Yes. No. So I mean, look, I think all of these things are true at the same time, right? So first of all, as you can see on Page 3, the organic capital generation enables us to build very quickly to get to where we need to be with a nice appropriate buffer on time, if not early.

是的。不，所以我的意思是，聽著，我認為所有這些事情都是真實的，對吧？因此，首先，正如您在第 3 頁上看到的那樣，有機資本的產生使我們能夠非常迅速地建立起來，以按時達到我們需要的適當緩衝，如果不是很早的話。

At the same time, as Jamie has noted, obviously in this moment, we're going to scrutinize even more aggressively than we always do, elements of our lending which are either low-returning or have a low client nexus or both. We do that all the time anyway. But of course, in this moment, we're going to turn up the heat on that a little bit.

與此同時，正如 Jamie 所指出的，顯然在這一刻，我們將比以往更加積極地審查我們貸款中的低迴報或低客戶關係或兩者兼而有之的元素。無論如何，我們一直都這樣做。但是，當然，在這一刻，我們要稍微加熱一下。

In terms of underwriting, as you say, we do underwrite through the cycle. I think we feel comfortable with our risk appetite and our credit box. And I don't think we expect any particular change there.

在承保方面，正如您所說，我們確實在整個週期內承保。我認為我們對自己的風險偏好和信用額度感到滿意。我不認為我們期望那裡有任何特別的變化。

Yes. And the only thing I would add is that certain, obviously, risks that we take kind of price themselves. So if you look at our bridge book, it's smaller than it was because we priced ourself out of the market. And that was a good thing because a lot of people can lose a lot of money there, and we lost a little. And so we are very conscious of that kind of thing all the time.

是的。我唯一要補充的是，很明顯，我們自己承擔某種價格的風險。因此，如果您查看我們的過渡書，它會比之前的要小，因為我們將自己定價出市場。這是一件好事，因為很多人在那裡會損失很多錢，而我們損失了一點。所以我們一直都很清楚這種事情。

I appreciate that. And did you all consider a CECL reserve and increasing the probability to the poor scenario in this quarter? And just curious on how you thought about that.

我很感激。你們是否都考慮過 CECL 儲備並增加本季度出現糟糕情況的可能性？只是好奇你是怎麼想的。

Yes, but we didn't do it. And obviously, what we do in the future quarters will remain to be seen.

是的，但我們沒有這樣做。顯然，我們在未來幾個季度所做的事情還有待觀察。

Yes. And Glenn, just remember that we did do that last quarter, right? So we already introduced a sort of skew to the outlook beyond what's implied by the market to reflect our own slightly more negative view. And in a sense, arguably, we were sort of early on that, so it really wasn't necessarily this quarter.

是的。格倫，請記住我們上個季度確實這樣做了，對吧？因此，我們已經在市場暗示的範圍之外對前景引入了某種偏差，以反映我們自己稍微更負面的看法。從某種意義上說，可以說，我們在這方面有點早，所以真的不一定是這個季度。

The next question is coming from John McDonald from Autonomous Research.

下一個問題來自 Autonomous Research 的 John McDonald。

Jeremy, I was wondering if you could talk about the deposit trends you're seeing, the differences between commercial deposits, wealth management and retail in terms of flows and repricing pressures.

Jeremy，我想知道您能否談談您所看到的存款趨勢，商業存款、財富管理和零售在流量和重新定價壓力方面的差異。

Yes. Great question, John. And I think you're right to break it down by the different segments because we are seeing different dynamics there. So on the wholesale side, you do see some lower deposits, some deposit attrition. And that is entirely expected and part of the plan in the sense that, for client reasons, we had slightly higher appetite, especially in parts of the commercial bank for nonoperating deposits. Knowing fully that our pricing strategy, as rates went up, was going to be the not pay up. And therefore, we expected the attrition from those -- from that client base. And so we're seeing that, and that's actually something that we want, all else equal. And it's playing out in line with expectations.

是的。好問題，約翰。我認為你按不同的細分市場細分它是正確的，因為我們在那裡看到了不同的動態。所以在批發方面，你確實會看到一些較低的存款，一些存款流失。從某種意義上說，這完全是意料之中的，也是計劃的一部分，因為出於客戶原因，我們的胃口略高，尤其是在商業銀行的部分非經營性存款方面。充分了解我們的定價策略，隨著利率的上升，將是不付錢的。因此，我們預計來自那些客戶群的減員。所以我們看到了這一點，這實際上是我們想要的東西，其他條件都一樣。它的表現符合預期。

You do see a little bit of a decline or a little bit of a headwind in Wealth Management. I think that's just seasonal tax payments being a little bit higher than usual. And then on the consumer side, we're really not seeing much at all. So that remains strong. We're not seeing any attrition there, and it's early in the cycle to really be observing much one way or the other from a pricing perspective.

你確實看到了財富管理的一點點下降或一點點逆風。我認為這只是季節性納稅比平時高一點。然後在消費者方面，我們真的沒有看到太多。所以這仍然很強大。我們在那裡沒有看到任何減員，從定價的角度來看，真正以一種或另一種方式觀察還處於週期的早期。

Okay. And then as a follow-up, in terms of the updated NII outlook, you had talked about an exit rate in the fourth quarter of about $66 billion at Investor Day. Just kind of wondering what that looks like and what kind of fading benefit from rate [ex] do you have assumed in your outlook.

好的。然後作為後續行動，就更新的 NII 前景而言，您曾在投資者日談到第四季度的退出率約為 660 億美元。只是想知道這是什麼樣的，以及您在前景中假設的利率 [ex] 會帶來什麼樣的衰退收益。

Yes. So the $66 billion number, if you want, kind of to put a number in, you can use something like $68 billion, $68 billion-plus, something like that. Obviously, we're annualizing 1 quarter, so there can always be noise in there. But that seems like a good number to us. That's consistent with the increase for the full year.

是的。所以 660 億美元的數字，如果你願意的話，可以輸入一個數字，你可以使用 680 億美元，680 億美元以上，類似的東西。顯然，我們將 1 個季度進行年化，所以那裡總是會有噪音。但這對我們來說似乎是一個不錯的數字。這與全年的增長是一致的。

And sorry, John, can you repeat your other question?

對不起，約翰，你能重複你的另一個問題嗎？

2023.

2023 年。

[Just deposit betas], yes.

[只需存入測試版]，是的。

Yes, yes, yes. So in terms of '23, we had talked at Investor Day about how we saw upside into 2023 from that fourth quarter run rate. And that more or less remains true. There is some upside. Obviously, we're starting from a higher launch point, higher rates and less so after the CPI trend, but there have been moments where there were cuts in the 2023 Fed expectations. So that could have some impact on the dynamic. Obviously, this is all in an environment, very volatile implied, but the core view of some upside from that fourth quarter run rate into 2023 is still in place.

對對對。因此，就 23 年而言，我們在投資者日討論了我們如何從第四季度的運行率看到 2023 年的上行空間。這或多或少仍然是正確的。有一些好處。顯然，在 CPI 趨勢之後，我們是從更高的啟動點、更高的利率開始的，但在某些時候，美聯儲的 2023 年預期有所下調。所以這可能會對動態產生一些影響。顯然，這一切都在一個環境中，隱含著非常不穩定的情況，但從第四季度到 2023 年的運行速度有一些上行空間的核心觀點仍然存在。

The next question is coming from Betsy Graseck from Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。

Jamie, you mentioned, just on the SCB earlier, that you intended to reduce it by reducing the things that caused it to rise. Could you give us a sense as to what you saw in the results that you got that drove that SCB up? Because I talked to folks to say it's a black box. So it would be helpful to understand what you see as what the drivers were to that SCB increase.

Jamie，你剛才在 SCB 上提到過，你打算通過減少導致它上升的因素來減少它。您能否讓我們了解一下您在結果中看到的推動 SCB 上漲的因素？因為我跟人們說這是一個黑匣子。因此，了解您所看到的 SCB 增長的驅動因素會有所幫助。

First of all, it's public. So you can actually go see what drives it, the global market shock and credit losses and stuff like that. And we don't agree with the stress tests. It's inconsistent. It's not transparent. It's too volatile. It's basic, capricious, arbitrary. We do 100 a week, and this is 1. And I need to drive capital up and down by 80 basis points.

首先，它是公開的。所以你實際上可以去看看是什麼驅動了它，全球市場衝擊和信用損失等等。我們不同意壓力測試。這是不一致的。它不透明。它太不穩定了。這是基本的、反复無常的、任意的。我們每週做 100 次，這是 1 次。我需要將資本上下浮動 80 個基點。

So we'll work on it. We haven't made definitive decisions. But I've already mentioned about we dramatically reduced RWA this quarter. We may do that again next quarter. Probably going to drive down mortgages, and we'll probably drive that other credit too that creates SCB.

所以我們會努力的。我們還沒有做出明確的決定。但我已經提到我們在本季度大幅降低了 RWA。我們可能會在下個季度再次這樣做。可能會降低抵押貸款，我們也可能會推動其他創造 SCB 的信貸。

So I'm not going to go into specifics on that. It's easy for us to do. You've seen us do it before. We're going to drive out [non-operating] deposits. It creates no risk to us, but it adds to G-SIFI and various things.

因此，我不打算對此進行詳細說明。我們很容易做到。你以前見過我們這樣做。我們將驅逐[非經營性]存款。它不會給我們帶來任何風險，但它會增加 G-SIFI 和各種東西。

And so we're going to manage the balance sheet, get good returns, have great clients. And not worried about it, we just want to get there right away. I don't want to sit there and dawdle. I just -- that's the rule, they gave it to us. We're going.

所以我們要管理資產負債表，獲得良好的回報，擁有優秀的客戶。不用擔心，我們只是想馬上到達那裡。我不想坐在那裡磨蹭。我只是 - 這是規則，他們給了我們。本來打算。

Betsy, maybe I'll just jump in a little bit on the black box.

Betsy，也許我會在黑匣子上稍微跳一下。

There's another very important point from a [for show], is that number, when they -- that doesn't even remotely -- the stress loss doesn't even remotely represent what happened under that kind of scenario. And I'm not saying the Fed says it should or shouldn't. But I would tell you, we'd make money under that scenario. We wouldn't lose -- I think they had us losing $44 billion. There's almost no chance that, that would be true.

[for show] 還有一個非常重要的觀點，那就是這個數字，當他們——甚至遠不及——壓力損失甚至遠不代表在那種情況下發生的事情時。我並不是說美聯儲說它應該或不應該。但我會告訴你，在這種情況下我們會賺錢。我們不會輸——我認為他們讓我們損失了 440 億美元。幾乎不可能，那是真的。

And I just -- and I feel bad for the shareholders because people look at that and say, "Well, what's going to happen?" And it buys us good evidence. We didn't lose money after Lehman. We didn't lose money in the great -- what just happened. We didn't lose money, great financial recession.

我只是——我為股東們感到難過，因為人們看到它會說，“好吧，會發生什麼？”它為我們提供了很好的證據。雷曼之後我們沒有虧錢。我們沒有在偉大的比賽中賠錢——剛剛發生的事情。我們沒有賠錢，金融大衰退。

The company's has got huge underlying earnings power and consistent revenues in CCB, asset management, custody, payment services. And then we have some kind of fairly volatile streams. Now we've got the CECL, which obviously can go up or down quite a bit. But again, that's an accounting entry. And so we feel in very good shape. We just have to hold a higher number now, and we're going to go there.

公司在建行、資產管理、託管、支付服務等領域擁有巨大的潛在盈利能力和穩定的收入。然後我們有一些相當不穩定的流。現在我們有了 CECL，它顯然可以上升或下降很多。但同樣，這是一個會計條目。所以我們感覺狀態很好。我們現在只需要持有一個更高的數字，我們就會去那裡。

And Betsy, maybe I'll just comment briefly on the black box point. Because as Jamie noted, the SCB is quite volatile, and I think you see that across the industry. And it's -- you have to -- we feel very good about building quickly enough to meet the higher requirements. But they are pretty big changes that come into effect fairly quickly for banks, and I think that's probably not healthy.

Betsy，也許我會簡單地評論一下黑匣子點。因為正如 Jamie 所說，SCB 非常不穩定，我認為你在整個行業都看到了這一點。而且它 - 你必須 - 我們對快速構建以滿足更高要求感到非常滿意。但它們是相當大的變化，對銀行來說很快就會生效，我認為這可能並不健康。

And the amount of transparency, there is a lot of information released, as Jamie says. But since the SCB is really a quantity that gets measured to the peak drawdown period, and that information does not get released, it winds up being really very hard in any given moment to understand what's actually driving it. And that combination of suboptimal transparency and high volatility is really our central criticism, I guess I would say. But nonetheless, you got capital generation...

正如 Jamie 所說，公開的信息量很大。但由於 SCB 實際上是一個在峰值回撤期間測量的量，並且該信息不會被發布，因此在任何特定時刻都很難理解實際驅動它的因素。我想我會說，次優的透明度和高波動性的結合確實是我們的核心批評。但是，儘管如此，您還是獲得了資本...

Yes. This got bad effects for the economy because, I just said, we're going to drive down this and drive down this. It's not good for the United States economy. And in the mortgage business in particular, is bad for lower-income mortgages, which hurts lower income, minorities and stuff like that because we haven't fixed the mortgage business. And now we're making it worse. There's no real risk in it, it's not a benefit to JPMorgan, but it hurts this country, and it's very unfortunate.

是的。這對經濟產生了不好的影響，因為，我剛才說過，我們要壓低這個，壓低這個。這對美國經濟不利。特別是在抵押貸款業務中，對低收入抵押貸款不利，這會傷害低收入、少數族裔和類似的東西，因為我們還沒有修復抵押貸款業務。而現在我們正在讓它變得更糟。它沒有真正的風險，對摩根大通沒有好處，但它傷害了這個國家，而且非常不幸。

I hear you on all that. And the mortgage comment you made earlier was about shrinking mortgage growth rates? Or shrinking the balances of mortgages that you have on the books?

我聽到了你的聲音。你之前發表的抵押貸款評論是關於縮小抵押貸款增長率的？或者減少你賬面上的抵押貸款餘額？

The balance. Well, no, we'll originate, but the balances in the books will probably come down. And look, we reserve the right to change that. But that's a portfolio decision. And if it doesn't make sense to own mortgage, then we're not going to own them.

餘額。好吧，不，我們會發起，但賬面上的餘額可能會下降。看，我們保留改變它的權利。但這是一個投資組合決定。如果擁有抵押貸款沒有意義，那麼我們就不會擁有它們。

Yes. and would you reduce the buffer? I mean, in the past, Jamie, you've talked about, hey, as these required capital ratios increase relative to the risk in your business staying more consistent, then, you've said before, that you may operate with less of a buffer. Could you unpack that a little bit?

是的。你會減少緩衝區嗎？我的意思是，在過去，傑米，你曾經說過，嘿，隨著這些所需的資本比率相對於你的業務保持更一致的風險而增加，那麼，你之前說過，你可能會以更少的緩衝。你能把它拆開一點嗎？

We're going to keep a buffer. I'm not even sure what the SCB means at this point. We're not going to go below any regulatory minimum. And if we have to, we'll just drive down credit more to create what we got to create. It's a terrible way to run a financial system, and we owe you more on that, what we think that buffer should be because we have so much -- what I think is so much excess capital. It just causes a huge confusion about what you should be doing with your capital.

我們將保留一個緩衝區。我什至不確定 SCB 在這一點上意味著什麼。我們不會低於任何監管最低標準。如果我們必須這樣做，我們只會更多地降低信貸來創造我們必須創造的東西。這是運行金融系統的一種糟糕的方式，我們在這方面欠你更多，我們認為緩衝應該是因為我們有太多——我認為是太多的過剩資本。它只會讓你對你應該用你的資金做什麼產生巨大的困惑。

But just keep in mind one thing, we're earning 70% tangible equity. We can continue doing that. The company is in great shape. We're going to serve our clients and manage the hell out of the rest of the stuff. We still think we have great businesses and stuff like that, and that's what we're going to do. Most of this stuff doesn't create any additional risk at all, it just creates capital.

但請記住一件事，我們正在賺取 70% 的有形資產。我們可以繼續這樣做。公司狀況良好。我們將為我們的客戶提供服務，並管理其餘的東西。我們仍然認為我們有很棒的業務和類似的東西，這就是我們要做的。大多數這些東西根本不會產生任何額外的風險，它只會創造資本。

The next question is coming from Jim Mitchell from Seaport Global Securities.

下一個問題來自 Seaport Global Securities 的 Jim Mitchell。

Maybe just on expenses. If I kind of look at the first half with the slowdown in investment banking, I think you're annualized less than $76 billion, but you're still targeting $77 billion. Is that implication of just higher investment spend in the second half? Or just uncertainty around getting the pipeline completed or not and just assuming it might get done until we know better?

也許只是在開支上。如果我看一下上半年投資銀行業務的放緩，我認為你的年化收入不到 760 億美元，但你的目標仍然是 770 億美元。這是否意味著下半年投資支出增加？或者只是不確定是否完成管道，只是假設它可能會完成，直到我們知道更好？

Yes, Jim, good question. We've looked at that, too. It's definitely more of the former than the later. In other words, $77 billion is the number that we see right now and the number that we believe. And we can see in our outlook a bunch of factors driving up second half expense, including deal, M&A closing and adding to the run rate; as well as continued execution of our investment plans, resulting in increased headcount probably at a faster pace as we kind of have ramped up our hiring capacity and so on. So I wouldn't draw any conclusions about lower than $77 billion based on the first half numbers.

是的，吉姆，好問題。我們也看過這個。肯定是前者多於後者。換句話說，770 億美元是我們現在看到的數字，也是我們相信的數字。在我們的展望中，我們可以看到一系列推動下半年支出的因素，包括交易、併購完成和增加運行率；以及繼續執行我們的投資計劃，導致員工人數可能以更快的速度增加，因為我們已經提高了我們的招聘能力等等。因此，根據上半年的數據，我不會得出低於 770 億美元的任何結論。

Okay. Great. And then just maybe on credit. It continues to look, I guess, very good, whether it's on the consumer side or commercial side. Are you -- we don't really see it, but are you starting to see any initial cracks in credit or strains in the system?

好的。偉大的。然後也許只是賒賬。我猜它繼續看起來非常好，無論是在消費者方面還是商業方面。您是否——我們並沒有真正看到它，但您是否開始看到信用的任何初始裂縫或系統中的壓力？

Look, I think the short answer to that question is no. Certainly not in any of our reported actual results for this quarter. The place that everyone...

看，我認為這個問題的簡短答案是否定的。當然，我們本季度報告的任何實際結果中都沒有。每個人都...

[They're actually] excellent.

[他們實際上]很棒。

Right, exactly. Obviously, running still well below normal levels from the pre-pandemic period.

沒錯，正是。顯然，與大流行前時期相比，運行仍遠低於正常水平。

But if you really want to kind of turn up the magnification on the microscope and look really, really, really closely, if you look at cash buffers in the lower-income segments and early delinquency roll rates in those segments, you can maybe see a little bit of an early warning signal to the effect that the burn-down of excess cash is a little bit faster there.

但是，如果你真的想把顯微鏡放大倍數，仔細觀察，如果你看看低收入群體的現金緩沖和這些群體的早期拖欠率，你可能會看到一點點預警信號，大意是那裡多餘現金的燃燒速度有點快。

Buffers are still above what they were pre-pandemic, but coming down. And that absolute numbers for the typical customer are not that high. And you do see those early delinquency buckets still below pre-pandemic levels, but getting closer in the lower-income segment.

緩衝區仍高於大流行前的水平，但正在下降。典型客戶的絕對數字並不高。而且您確實看到那些早期犯罪率仍低於大流行前的水平，但在低收入群體中越來越接近。

So if you wanted to try to look for early warning signals, that's where you would see it. But I think there's really still a big question about whether that's simply normalization or whether it's actually an early warning sign of deterioration. And for us, as you know, our portfolio is really not very exposed to that segment of the market. So not really very significant for us.

因此，如果您想嘗試尋找早期預警信號，那麼您就會看到它。但我認為，這是否只是正常化，還是實際上是惡化的早期預警信號，仍然存在一個很大的問題。如您所知，對我們來說，我們的投資組合實際上並沒有很容易接觸到該市場。所以對我們來說並不是很重要。

Right. So prime is still holding up quite well.

正確的。所以Prime仍然保持得很好。

Yes.

是的。

Looking better.

看起來更好。

The next question is coming from Ken Usdin from Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Ken Usdin。

Just a follow-up on the points about managing the balance sheet and capital and RWAs. How do you think about your ability to manage that RWA output and dimensionalizing how, if at all, it might impact either the net income -- outcome or the ROTCE outcome as you look forward?

只是關於管理資產負債表和資本以及風險加權資產的要點的後續行動。您如何看待您管理 RWA 輸出的能力以及如何確定它如何影響淨收入 - 結果或您期待的 ROTCE 結果？

Just very roughly, we have a tremendous ability to manage it. I can think we do without affecting our ROTCE targets and stuff like that. Obviously, it will affect NII a little bit and capital generation a little bit, all stuff like that. But all told, we're going to manage out of it and we'll be fine.

非常粗略地說，我們擁有強大的管理能力。我可以認為我們這樣做不會影響我們的 ROTCE 目標和類似的東西。顯然，它會對 NII 和資本生成產生一點影響，諸如此類。但總而言之，我們會設法擺脫它，我們會沒事的。

Got it. Okay. That's a fair point. And then just second one on cards. Card revenue rate continues to slip even with the NII benefit. Obviously, you've got the denominator increase in there, too, and spend versus land. Can you just help us understand the dynamics underneath card revenue rate and where you expect it to go from here?

知道了。好的。這是一個公平的觀點。然後是卡片上的第二個。即使有 NII 的好處，卡的收入率也會繼續下滑。顯然，您的分母也增加了，並且花費與土地。您能否幫助我們了解卡收入率下的動態以及您期望它從這裡走向何方？

Yes, sure. So on Card revenue rate, we'd said that we thought 10% was a reasonable number for the full year, and it's running a little bit lower right now. And I think the current level -- but where is it, [Michael?] 9.6 or something is probably the right number for the full year at this point.

是的，當然。所以關於卡收入率，我們曾說過我們認為 10% 是全年的合理數字，而且現在運行得有點低。我認為目前的水平——但它在哪裡，[邁克爾？] 9.6 或其他東西可能是目前全年的正確數字。

And really, the difference is driven by a couple of factors. The main one is that while the growth in revolve is basically still in place, our view that we would see normalization in revolve balances happening towards early -- beginning of next year, the starting point of that did get slightly delayed by Omicron by about 6 weeks. And so that, all else equal, is a little bit an NII headwind relative to what we'd expected, but still obviously very robust...

實際上，差異是由幾個因素驅動的。主要的一點是，雖然 revolve 的增長基本上仍然存在，但我們認為我們將看到 revolve 餘額的正常化發生在明年年初——Omicron 的起點確實略微延遲了大約 6週。因此，在其他條件相同的情況下，相對於我們的預期，這有點 NII 逆風，但顯然仍然非常強勁......

And can I just add a little bit on -- because I know I'm harping on mortgage a little here, but I just want to explain it.

我可以補充一點 - 因為我知道我在這裡有點抵押貸款，但我只是想解釋一下。

Because -- if you go to Europe, okay, the capital held against mortgage is like 1/5 of what we have to hold here. And we can obviously manage that. And standardized risk-weighted assets do not represent returns or risk. So there are a lot of ways to manage it. And we're not -- there's no securitization market today. So our view would change if there was a securitization market. We might do something different. But by not owning it, buying it, signing it, hedging it, swapping it, there are a million ways to manage it without really affecting a lot of your risk of returns.

因為——如果你去歐洲，好吧，抵押貸款的資本就像我們在這裡必須持有的資本的 1/5。我們顯然可以做到這一點。標準化的風險加權資產並不代表回報或風險。所以有很多方法可以管理它。我們不是——今天沒有證券化市場。因此，如果有證券化市場，我們的觀點就會改變。我們可能會做一些不同的事情。但是通過不擁有它、購買它、簽署它、對沖它、交換它，有上百萬種方法可以管理它，而不會真正影響你的很多回報風險。

And so it's unfortunate because I think this is all kind of a waste of time in terms of serving our client. Our job is to serve clients through thick or thin, good or bad, with what they need and how they need it. And now we spend all the time talking about these ridiculous regulatory requirements.

所以這很不幸，因為我認為這在為我們的客戶服務方面是在浪費時間。我們的工作是為客戶提供服務，不管他們是好是壞，無論他們需要什麼以及如何需要。現在我們一直在談論這些荒謬的監管要求。

Right. So yes, and just to finish on card. So slightly lower NII just from the Omicron delay. And that slightly better-than-expected new client acquisition is a driver there. And then there's some subtle kind of funding effects from the higher rate environment contributing to it as well.

正確的。所以是的，只是為了完成卡片。因此僅從 Omicron 延遲就可以稍微降低 NII。略好於預期的新客戶獲取是那裡的驅動力。然後，高利率環境也產生了一些微妙的融資效應。

The next question is coming from Mike Mayo from Wells Fargo Securities.

下一個問題來自 Wells Fargo Securities 的 Mike Mayo。

Could you help me reconcile your words with your actions? After Investor Day, Jamie, you said a hurricane is on the horizon. But today, you're holding firm with your $77 billion expense guidance for 2022. I mean, it's like you're acting like there's sunny skies ahead. You're out buying kayaks, surfboards, wave runners just before the storm. So is it tough times or not?

你能幫我調和你的言行嗎？在投資者日之後，傑米，你說颶風即將來臨。但今天，你堅持 2022 年 770 億美元的支出指導。我的意思是，這就像你表現得好像前方有陽光明媚的天空。暴風雨來臨前，你要出去買皮划艇、衝浪板、衝浪板。那麼這是艱難的時期嗎？

Now let me -- we run the company. We've always run the company consistently, investing, doing this stuff through storms. We don't like pull in and pull out and go up and go down and go into markets, out of markets through storms. We manage the company, and you've seen us do this consistently since I've been at Bank One. We invest, we grow, we expand, we manage through the storm and stuff like that.

現在讓我 - 我們經營公司。我們一直一貫地經營公司，投資，在風暴中做這些事情。我們不喜歡拉進拉出，漲跌跌進市場，在風暴中離開市場。我們管理公司，自從我在第一銀行工作以來，您已經看到我們一直這樣做。我們投資，我們成長，我們擴張，我們通過風暴和類似的東西進行管理。

And so -- and I mentioned to all of you on the media call, but there are very good current numbers taking place. Consumers are in good shape. They're spending money. They have more income. Jobs are plentiful. They're spending 10% more than last year, almost 30% plus more than pre-COVID. Businesses, when you talk to them, they're in good shape, they're doing fine. We've never seen business credit be better ever like in our lifetimes. And that's the current environment.

所以——我在媒體電話會議上向你們所有人提到過，但目前的數字非常好。消費者狀況良好。他們在花錢。他們有更多的收入。工作很豐富。他們的支出比去年增加了 10%，比 COVID 之前增加了近 30%。企業，當你與他們交談時，他們狀況良好，做得很好。在我們的有生之年，我們從未見過商業信用更好。這就是當前的環境。

The future environment, which is not that far off, involves rates going up maybe more than people think because of inflation, maybe deflation, maybe a soft -- there might be a soft landing. I'm simply saying, there's a range of potential outcomes, from a soft lending to a hard lending, driven by how much rates go up; the effect of quantitative tightening; the effect of volatile markets; and obviously, this terrible humanitarian crisis in Ukraine and the war, and then the effect of that on food and oil and gas.

未來的環境並不遙遠，利率上升可能比人們想像的要多，因為通貨膨脹，可能是通貨緊縮，可能是軟著陸——可能是軟著陸。我只是說，有一系列潛在的結果，從軟貸款到硬貸款，由利率上升多少驅動；量化緊縮的效果；市場波動的影響；顯然，烏克蘭這場可怕的人道主義危機和戰爭，以及對糧食、石油和天然氣的影響。

And we're simply pointing out, those things make the probabilities and possibilities of these events different. It's not going to change how we run the company. The economy will be bigger in 10 years. We're going to run the company. We're going to serve more clients. We're going to open our branches. We're going to invest in the things. And we'll manage through that.

我們只是指出，這些事情使這些事件的概率和可能性不同。這不會改變我們經營公司的方式。 10年後經濟會更大。我們要經營公司。我們將服務更多的客戶。我們要開分店了。我們將投資於這些東西。我們將解決這個問題。

We do -- if you look at what we do, our bridge book is way down. That was managing certain exposures. We're not in subprime fundamentally. That's managing your exposures. So we're quite careful about how we run the risk of the company. And if there was a reason to cut back on something, we would. But now that we think it's a great business that's got great growth prospects, it's just going to go through a storm.

我們做——如果你看看我們所做的，我們的橋牌已經很糟糕了。那是管理某些風險。從根本上說，我們並不處於次貸之中。那就是管理你的曝光。因此，我們對如何承擔公司的風險非常謹慎。如果有理由削減某些東西，我們會的。但現在我們認為這是一項具有巨大增長前景的偉大業務，它只會經歷一場風暴。

And in fact, going through a storm, we will -- that gives us opportunities, too. I always remind myself, the economy will be a lot bigger in 10 years, we're here to serve clients through thick or thin, and we will do that.

事實上，經歷一場風暴，我們會——這也給了我們機會。我總是提醒自己，10 年後經濟會變得更大，我們來這裡是為了服務客戶，風雨同舟，我們會做到的。

So clearly running the company for the next 5 to 10 years. If we have a recession in the next 5 to 10 months, how does technology help you manage through that better? Whether it's credit losses, managing for less credit losses, expenses, more flexibility, more revenues, maybe gaining market share. What's the benefit of all these technology investments if we have a recession over the next...

很明顯，公司將在未來 5 到 10 年內運營。如果我們在未來 5 到 10 個月內出現衰退，技術如何幫助您更好地度過難關？無論是信用損失，管理減少信用損失，費用，更多的靈活性，更多的收入，也許獲得市場份額。如果我們在接下來的經濟衰退中，所有這些技術投資有什麼好處……

Mike, I think we gave you some examples at Investor Day. For example, AI, which we spend a lot of money on. We gave you a couple of examples, but one of them is we spent $100 million building certain risk and fraud systems so that when we process payments on the consumer side, losses are down $100 million to $200 million. Volume is way up. That's a huge benefit. I don't think you'd wants to stop doing that because there's a recession.

邁克，我想我們在投資者日給了你一些例子。例如，人工智能，我們花了很多錢。我們舉了幾個例子，其中一個例子是我們花費了 1 億美元來構建某些風險和欺詐系統，這樣當我們在消費者端處理付款時，損失就會減少 1 億美元到 2 億美元。音量上來了。這是一個巨大的好處。我認為你不會因為經濟衰退而停止這樣做。

And so -- and plus, in a recession, certain things get cheaper, branches are enormously profitable, bank is enormously profitable. We're going to keep on doing those things. And we've managed through recessions before, we'll manage it again. And I'm quite comfortable we'll do it quite well.

所以——另外，在經濟衰退中，某些東西變得更便宜，分支機構利潤豐厚，銀行利潤豐厚。我們將繼續做這些事情。而且我們之前已經度過了經濟衰退，我們將再次管理它。我很舒服，我們會做得很好。

We're stop-starting on recruiting or training or technology or branch, right? That's crazy. We don't do that. We've never done that. We didn't do it in '08 and '09. [And it puts us in quite good stead] in terms -- yes.

我們正在停止招聘或培訓或技術或分支機構，對嗎？太瘋狂了。我們不這樣做。我們從來沒有這樣做過。我們在 08 年和 09 年沒有這樣做。 [而且它使我們處於相當有利的地位] - 是的。

The only other thing is just market revenues are a lot weaker, right? I mean, the market outlook is worse. And so we know you've had a structural spending. So when all else equal, that would be a little bit less then.

唯一的另一件事是市場收入要弱得多，對吧？我的意思是，市場前景更糟。所以我們知道你有結構性支出。因此，當其他所有條件相同時，那會少一點。

But that's -- yes, that's very performance-based, too. And again, Mike, the way I look at it a little bit, in 15 years, the global GDP -- or 20 years, the global GDP, global financial assets, global companies, companies over $5 billion will all double. That's what we're building for. We're not building for like 18 months.

但那是 - 是的，這也是非常基於性能的。再一次，邁克，我稍微看一下，15 年後，全球 GDP——或者 20 年，全球 GDP、全球金融資產、全球公司、超過 50 億美元的公司都將翻一番。這就是我們正在建設的目的。我們不會建設 18 個月。

The next question is coming from Gerard Cassidy from RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Gerard Cassidy。

Jeremy, you touched on the deposit commentary a short while ago. Can you elaborate on QT and the impact that you've seen? Now granted that I know June was not full QT of $95 billion a month. But can you guys give us a flavor?

傑里米，你剛才談到了存款評論。您能否詳細說明 QT 以及您所看到的影響？現在，我知道 6 月份的 QT 並不是每月 950 億美元。但是你們能給我們一個味道嗎？

And I think, Jamie, you mentioned that -- if I heard it correctly, that maybe $300 billion to $400 billion of deposits could outflow over time, I am assuming, due to QT. But can you guys elaborate what you saw in June? Is it tracking the way you think it's going to be? And any further outlook for what the deposits could be over the next 12 months due to QT.

我認為，傑米，你提到過——如果我沒聽錯的話，我假設，由於 QT，隨著時間的推移，可能會有 3000 億到 4000 億美元的存款流出。但是你們能詳細說明一下你們在 6 月份看到的情況嗎？它是否按照您認為的方式進行跟踪？以及由於 QT 對未來 12 個月存款的進一步展望。

Gerard, so as you know, QT just started. So I think it's not the sort of thing where you can say I expect this exact outcome and then sort of track it sector by sector because you can see the clear impact on system-wide deposits, but that also interacts with RRP and TGA and stuff like that. And so how that flows into the banking system and then to any individual bank across the wholesale and consumer segments is kind of a tricky thing. So it's early on that.

Gerard，如您所知，QT 剛剛開始。所以我認為這不是那種你可以說我期望這個確切的結果然後逐個部門跟踪它的事情，因為你可以看到對系統範圍存款的明顯影響，但這也與 RRP 和 TGA 以及其他東西相互作用像那樣。因此，它如何流入銀行系統，然後流入批發和消費領域的任何一家銀行，這是一件棘手的事情。所以現在還早。

But at a high level, and your comment to what Jamie said before are right. The story remains true, which is that depending on how QT interacts with RRP and loan growth in particular, you could see some decline in deposits in the banking system, and we would see our share of that.

但在高層次上，你對傑米之前所說的話的評論是正確的。這個故事仍然是真實的，這取決於 QT 如何與 RRP 和貸款增長特別是相互作用，你可能會看到銀行系統中的存款有所下降，我們會看到我們的份額。

But we would expect that to primarily come out of wholesale and primarily come out of the non-operating and sort of less-valuable portions of our deposit base. While in consumer, while you could in theory have a little bit of a headwind there, we feel pretty good about our ability to keep those levels pretty steady, based on the strength of the franchise and the ability to take share.

但我們預計這主要來自批發，主要來自我們存款基礎的非運營和價值較低的部分。在消費者方面，雖然理論上你可能會遇到一點阻力，但基於特許經營的實力和分享的能力，我們對保持這些水平相當穩定的能力感到非常滿意。

Very good. And then as a follow-up, I don't believe you guys disclosed the outstandings in the bridge book. But 2 questions.

很好。然後作為後續，我不相信你們透露了橋牌中的優秀之處。但是2個問題。

And Jamie, you've been very clear about this in the last 10 years, how you've derisked the balance sheet, and you mentioned that already today. Can you just give us some color on how different it is today from '08, '09? Just so investors know that it is meaningfully different.

傑米，你在過去 10 年裡非常清楚這一點，你是如何降低資產負債表的風險的，你今天已經提到了這一點。你能告訴我們今天與'08、'09有多大不同嗎？只是讓投資者知道這是有意義的不同。

And second, what caused the write-down in the bridge book this quarter?

其次，是什麼原因導致本季度的過橋賬簿出現減記？

So if you go back to '07, I think, the whole Street bridge book was $480 billion. I think the whole Street bridge book today is under $100 billion or under $100 billion.

所以，如果你回到 07 年，我想，整個 Street Bridge 的賬目是 4800 億美元。我認為今天的整個街橋賬簿都在 1000 億美元或 1000 億美元以下。

Yes. It's like 20%.

是的。好像是20%。

Our percent of that bridge book has come down substantially just in the last 12 months. And that's really just underwriting loan by loan by loan, and you win some, you lose some. And if you guys look at high-yield spreads and stuff like that, bonds are down 6%, that's what you see. So you have some flex, you don't have some flex. And we're big boys, we know that. And there was write-downs of a couple of bridge loans. They're not huge. They're just -- I think they were in the Investment Banking line.

僅在過去 12 個月中，我們佔該過渡書的百分比就大幅下降。這實際上只是逐筆貸款，你贏了一些，你輸了一些。如果你們看看高收益利差之類的東西，債券下跌了 6%，這就是你們所看到的。所以你有一些彈性，你沒有一些彈性。我們是大男孩，我們知道這一點。還有幾筆過橋貸款的減記。它們並不龐大。他們只是——我認為他們屬於投資銀行業務。

Yes. It's in the IB revenue line, and there's a small amount in the Commercial Bank as well. But as you said, Jamie, and as Daniel also mentioned on Investor Day, I think we made conscious choices here to dial back our risk appetite here and accepted some share losses in leveraged finance. So we feel good about where we are. We're still open for business for the right deals at the right risk appetite on the right term, absolutely. But we've been careful.

是的。它在IB收入線中，商業銀行也有少量。但正如你所說，傑米，正如丹尼爾在投資者日也提到的那樣，我認為我們在這裡做出了有意識的選擇，以降低我們在這裡的風險偏好，並接受了槓桿融資中的一些份額損失。因此，我們對自己所處的位置感覺良好。我們仍然願意在合適的期限內以合適的風險偏好進行合適的交易，絕對如此。但我們一直很小心。

The next question is coming from Erika Najarian from UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Erika Najarian。

I just had a few follow-up questions. The first is on balance sheet management. Jeremy, the illustrative path that you set forth on Slide 3, does that include RWA mitigation?

我只是有幾個後續問題。首先是資產負債表管理。 Jeremy，您在幻燈片 3 中提出的說明性路徑，是否包括 RWA 緩解？

And as we think about the $58 billion-plus in updated NII guide, what kind of deposit growth does that assume? You noted that part of the SCB mitigation is to drive out non-operating deposits. Just wanted to understand what the assumption was there as well, please.

當我們考慮更新後的 NII 指南中超過 580 億美元的金額時，這假設了什麼樣的存款增長？您指出，SCB 緩解措施的一部分是驅除非經營性存款。只是想了解那裡的假設是什麼，請。

Yes, Erika, sure. So first point, you have to turn up your magnifying glass. But if you look at Footnote 5 on Page 3, you can see that right at the end of there, it assumes flat RWA in the projection. So -- and I think within that, who knows what the exact mix will be? And you've heard Jamie's comments on that.

是的，埃里卡，當然。所以第一點，你必須打開你的放大鏡。但是，如果您查看第 3 頁上的腳註 5，您可以看到在最後，它假定投影中的 RWA 是平坦的。所以 - 我認為在這其中，誰知道確切的組合會是什麼？你已經聽過 Jamie 對此的評論。

But if you look at the table above, you see that you've got the usual moving parts. We've got organic loan growth that we want, that's been profitable on its own or part of important relationships that we'd like to see continue to happen. Some of it is a little bit passive. We can't really control it, it moves up and down as a function of factors like VAR. And then there's the mitigation piece of it, which we're going to turn up the scrutiny quite intensely, as I said before, on lower-returning, lower client nexus or both. So across those 3 bits, we'll see how it goes. But as Jamie said, we feel pretty confident here.

但是，如果您查看上面的表格，您會發現您擁有通常的活動部件。我們已經獲得了我們想要的有機貸款增長，這本身就是有利可圖的，或者我們希望看到繼續發生的重要關係的一部分。其中一些有點被動。我們無法真正控制它，它會隨著 VAR 等因素的變化而上下波動。然後是緩解部分，正如我之前所說，我們將非常嚴格地審查低迴報、低客戶關係或兩者兼而有之。因此，在這 3 位中，我們將看到它是如何進行的。但正如傑米所說，我們在這裡感到非常自信。

In terms of deposits. At this point, deposit growth is probably less of a driver overall, looking forward, of the NII outlook. Our deposit outlook remains more or less the same that I said before and that we've talked about at Investor Day, which is we do expect to see some attrition in wholesale, we expect consumer to be relatively stable, and we'll see how it goes.

在存款方面。在這一點上，展望未來，存款增長可能不是 NII 前景的整體驅動因素。我們的存款前景或多或少與我之前所說的以及我們在投資者日討論過的相同，我們確實預計批發業務會出現一些減員，我們預計消費者會相對穩定，我們將看看如何它去了。

Got it. And my follow-up question is for Jamie. Jamie, we've heard your caution about the economy. And I think there's a bigger debate on how the U.S. consumer is going to be impacted in light or in context of a downturn. The statistics that Jeremy laid out imply a pretty healthy starting point for the consumer that you bank. And the reserve build for loan growth in card and the less than 2% loss rate in card lead us to believe that your consumer is still okay.

知道了。我的後續問題是針對傑米的。傑米，我們聽說你對經濟的謹慎態度。而且我認為關於美國消費者將如何受到影響或在經濟低迷的背景下存在更大的爭論。傑里米列出的統計數據暗示了你銀行的消費者的一個非常健康的起點。卡中貸款增長的準備金和低於 2% 的卡損失率使我們相信您的消費者仍然可以。

As you think about the various scenarios and you think about the realistic range of outcomes, how does the U.S. consumer perform? Because it feels like that's the big wildcard. And we've seen the journal term a job-full recession. I just wanted to get your thoughts there.

當您考慮各種情景並考慮現實的結果範圍時，美國消費者的表現如何？因為感覺那是大通配符。而且我們已經看到期刊術語是就業全面衰退。我只是想了解你的想法。

Yes. So first, I just want to point out that, on that chart, that's not a forecast for what it is going to be at the end of the quarter. So we're going to -- if you're going to pencil some of your models, it's 12.5% on December 31, and it'll probably be 13% at the end of the first quarter. And because obviously, we use capital for a whole bunch of different reasons.

是的。因此，首先，我只想指出，在該圖表上，這並不是對本季度末情況的預測。所以我們要——如果你要給你的一些模型畫鉛筆，12 月 31 日是 12.5%，第一季度末可能是 13%。因為很明顯，我們使用資本有很多不同的原因。

And the consumer, I feel like a broken record. The consumer right now is in great shape. So even we go into a recession, they're entering that recession with less leverage, in far better shape than they've been -- did in '08 and '09, and far better shape than they did even in 2020. And jobs are plentiful.

而消費者，我覺得自己就像一個破紀錄。現在的消費者狀態很好。因此，即使我們陷入衰退，他們也正在以更少的槓桿進入衰退，其狀況比他們在 08 年和 09 年的狀況要好得多，甚至比 2020 年的狀況要好得多。還有工作很豐富。

Now of course, jobs may disappear. Things happen. But they're in very good shape. And obviously, when you have recessions, it affects consumer income and consumer credit. Our credit card portfolio is prime. I mean, it's exceptional. But again, we're adults in that. We know that if you have a recession, losses will go up. We prepare for all that, and we're prepared to take it because we grow the business over time. We're not going to just immediately run out of it.

當然，現在工作可能會消失。事情發生。但他們的狀態非常好。顯然，當經濟衰退時，它會影響消費者收入和消費者信貸。我們的信用卡組合是一流的。我的意思是，這很特殊。但同樣，我們在這方面是成年人。我們知道，如果經濟衰退，損失就會增加。我們為這一切做好了準備，我們準備好接受它，因為我們會隨著時間的推移發展業務。我們不會立即用完它。

And so I think it's great the consumer's is in good shape. And it sounds excellent that -- I like the fact that wages are going up for people at the low end. I like the fact that jobs are plentiful. I think that's good for the average American, and we should applaud that. And so they're in good shape right now.

所以我認為消費者的狀態很好。聽起來很棒——我喜歡低端人的工資上漲的事實。我喜歡工作很多的事實。我認為這對普通美國人來說是件好事，我們應該為此鼓掌。所以他們現在狀態很好。

The next question is coming from Matt O'Connor from Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Matt O'Connor。

Matt, I don't know if you're on -- yes.

馬特，我不知道你是否在——是的。

Yes. The next question is coming from Ebrahim Poonawala from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

是的。下一個問題來自美銀美林的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

I guess just one for -- a couple of follow-ups, Jeremy. In terms of the markets have gone very quickly from pricing in a ton of rate hikes to potentially pricing in rate cuts next year. Just talk to us, like how that's informing your ALCO balance sheet management as you think about hedging downside risk from lower rates 12 to 18 months out? Like should we expect you to add duration or do anything synthetic to protect against lower rates?

Jeremy，我想只有一個用於 - 幾個後續行動。就市場而言，已經從對大量加息的定價轉變為對明年降息的潛在定價。只需與我們交談，例如當您考慮對沖 12 至 18 個月後較低利率的下行風險時，這對您的 ALCO 資產負債表管理有何影響？就像我們應該期望您增加持續時間或做任何合成來防止較低的利率嗎？

We're going to keep that to ourselves.

我們將把它留給自己。

Yes, yes. But I don't know, maybe if you want a little bit of general color about how we're thinking about the portfolio. I do think...

是的是的。但我不知道，也許你想了解一下我們對投資組合的看法。我真這麼覺得...

Go ahead.

前進。

Yes, okay. I'll keep it brief. The -- on duration, I think at this level of rates, also with, very quickly, cash yields being roughly not that different from 10-year yields, the question of duration adding or not is just generally less important for us.

是的，好的。我會保持簡短。 - 關於久期，我認為在這個利率水平上，而且很快，現金收益率與 10 年期收益率大致沒有太大差異，是否增加久期的問題對我們來說通常不太重要。

Then the other piece of it is whether there's the opportunity to deploy cash into non-HQLA securities broadly into spread product. And obviously, the spread product is more attractive right now. But as we've been talking about a lot on this call, the priority right now is to build capital. So that will be something for later, I would say.

然後另一部分是是否有機會將現金部署到非 HQLA 證券中，廣泛用於價差產品。顯然，點差產品現在更具吸引力。但正如我們在本次電話會議上一直在談論的那樣，現在的首要任務是建立資本。所以這將是以後的事情，我會說。

And I should just point out, the forward curve has been consistently wrong in my whole lifetime. We don't necessarily make investments based on the forward curve.

我應該指出，前向曲線在我的一生中一直是錯誤的。我們不一定根據遠期曲線進行投資。

And second, we've always told you that we use the portfolio and other things to manage the broad range of outcomes, not just to try to add NII. So if you said add NII next quarter, yes, we could do that. That would be managing the broad outcome of potential outcomes here, which is to protect the company through all possible outcomes.

其次，我們一直告訴您，我們使用投資組合和其他東西來管理廣泛的結果，而不僅僅是嘗試添加 NII。因此，如果您說下個季度添加 NII，是的，我們可以這樣做。這將在這裡管理潛在結果的廣泛結果，即通過所有可能的結果來保護公司。

That's helpful. And just one follow-up on credit. I heard your comments on the consumer. If we enter some version of a mild recession, like if you had to pick 1 or 2 areas, where do you think losses would be driven by? Is it on the commercial side? Is it CRE? Like how do you expect that downturn to kind of play out?

這很有幫助。並且只有一次信貸跟進。我聽到了你對消費者的評論。如果我們進入某種形式的溫和衰退，比如你必須選擇 1 或 2 個領域，你認為損失會來自哪裡？是在商業方面嗎？是CRE嗎？就像你預計這種低迷會如何發展？

Did you -- I think at Investor Day, you had a chart that showed through-the-cycle losses.

你有沒有 - 我認為在投資者日，你有一張圖表顯示了整個週期的損失。

Yes.

是的。

Yes. So I mean, I would just go back to that. And we showed what we think through-the-cycle loss would be for credit cards, C&I and a bunch of other things. And obviously, through-the-cycle is an average, and you can kind of double that from -- okay.

是的。所以我的意思是，我會回到那個。我們展示了我們認為信用卡、C&I 和其他一些東西的整個週期損失。顯然，整個週期是一個平均值，你可以將它翻倍——好吧。

Yes. And that showed exceptionally low losses in wholesale. So whether or not that's a prediction of the future or not, but yes.

是的。這表明批發損失極低。所以無論這是否是對未來的預測，但是是的。

The next question is coming from Matt O'Connor from Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Matt O'Connor。

Sorry about that. I don't know how I got disconnected. Sorry if I missed this, but if we think about provisioning or reserving for a moderate recession, what's the best guess on how much that might be? I think for COVID, it was around $14 billion ex CECL. But obviously, you alluded to the consumer being better. The loan mix has changed. There's lots of puts and takes. But how would you frame kind of total reserve sales for moderate...

對於那個很抱歉。我不知道我是怎麼斷線的。抱歉，如果我錯過了這一點，但如果我們考慮為適度衰退準備或保留，那麼最好的猜測是多少？我認為對於 COVID，除 CECL 外，它約為 140 億美元。但很明顯，你提到消費者更好。貸款組合發生了變化。有很多看跌期權。但是，您將如何構建適度的總儲備銷售...

Let me say it very simply for you. In COVID, we got to 15% unemployment within 3 months. And in 2 quarters, we added $15 billion, which we can easily handle. That is clearly -- I was put -- that was almost at the worst case. It will clearly be a lot less than that. And you guys can look at the things yourselves. Every 5% is another $500 million or something like that if you change your odds, and so on.

讓我為你說得很簡單。在 COVID 中，我們在 3 個月內達到了 15% 的失業率。在兩個季度中，我們增加了 150 億美元，我們可以輕鬆處理。很明顯——我被認為是——這幾乎是最壞的情況。顯然會比這少很多。你們可以自己看東西。如果你改變你的賠率，每 5% 就是另外 5 億美元或類似的東西，等等。

Yes. I mean, we think the current reserve -- the current allowance, we think, is conservatively appropriate for a range of scenarios. And as you know, it's already kind of skewed to the downside, and there are probably some other elements of slight conservatism in there. So we'll see how it goes. We feel that it's appropriate and conservative at this point.

是的。我的意思是，我們認為目前的儲備——我們認為，目前的配額保守地適用於一系列情景。如你所知，它已經有點偏向下行了，而且可能還有其他一些輕微的保守主義元素。所以我們會看看它是怎麼回事。我們認為在這一點上是適當和保守的。

Okay. And then separately, you've got about $14 billion of losses in OCI. Obviously, most of that flows back to capital as the bonds mature. What's kind of some good rule of thumb in terms of how quickly that comes back if rates stabilize here?

好的。此外，OCI 的損失約為 140 億美元。顯然，隨著債券的成熟，大部分資金流回資本。如果利率在這裡穩定下來，那麼就恢復的速度而言，有什麼好的經驗法則？

10 basis points a year.

每年10個基點。

Of CET1, yes.

CET1，是的。

Right, 10 basis points, you said?

對，你說的是 10 個基點？

10 basis points of CET1 a year.

CET1每年10個基點。

[When is that?]

[那是什麼時候？]

After -- yes, after tax...

之後——是的，稅後……

Basically 5 years. It kind of bleeds back in over 5 years.

基本上5年。它在5年多的時間裡流血了。

Again, assume its weighted average life of 4 or 5 years, yes. So the rule -- the good rule of thumb on constant rates is about 10 basis points of CET1 accretion a year.

同樣，假設其加權平均壽命為 4 年或 5 年，是的。所以規則——關於恆定利率的良好經驗法則是每年增加大約 10 個基點的 CET1。

At the moment, there are no further questions in the queue.

目前，隊列中沒有其他問題。

Folks, everybody, thank you very much. And we'll be talking to you in quarter.

各位，非常感謝大家。我們將在季度與您交談。

Thank you. Everyone, that concludes your conference call for today. You may now disconnect. Thank you all for joining and enjoy the rest of your day.

謝謝你。大家，今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。感謝大家的加入，並享受剩下的一天。