摩根大通 (JPM) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to JPMorgan Chase's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. This call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) We will now go live to the presentation, please stand by. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to JPMorgan Chase's Chairman and CEO, Jamie Dimon; and Chief Financial Officer, Jeremy Barnum. Mr. Barnum, please go ahead.

早上好，女士們，先生們。歡迎參加摩根大通 2022 年第三季度財報電話會議。正在錄製此通話。 （操作員說明）我們現在將進行演示，請稍候。在這個時候，我想把電話轉給摩根大通的董事長兼首席執行官傑米戴蒙；和首席財務官傑里米·巴納姆。巴納姆先生，請繼續。

Thank you very much. Good morning, everyone. As always, the presentation is available on our website, and please refer to the disclaimer in the back.

非常感謝。大家，早安。與往常一樣，該演示文稿可在我們的網站上找到，請參閱後面的免責聲明。

Starting on Page 1. The firm reported net income of $9.7 billion, EPS of $3.12 on revenue of $33.5 billion and delivered an ROTCE of 18%. The only significant item this quarter was discretionary net investment securities losses in corporate of $959 million as a result of repositioning the portfolio by selling U.S. treasuries and mortgages.

從第 1 頁開始。該公司報告淨收入為 97 億美元，每股收益為 3.12 美元，收入為 335 億美元，ROTCE 為 18%。本季度唯一重要的項目是通過出售美國國債和抵押貸款重新定位投資組合，公司可自由支配的投資證券淨損失為 9.59 億美元。

Our strong results this quarter reflect the resilience of the franchise in a dynamic environment. Touching on a few highlights, we had a record third quarter -- we had record third quarter revenue in Markets of $6.8 billion, we ranked #1 in retail deposit share based on FDIC data, and credit is still healthy with net charge-offs remaining low.

我們本季度的強勁業績反映了特許經營在動態環境中的彈性。談到一些亮點，我們第三季度創下了創紀錄的紀錄——我們第三季度在市場上的收入達到創紀錄的 68 億美元，根據 FDIC 數據，我們在零售存款份額中排名第一，信貸仍然健康，淨沖銷仍然存在低的。

On Page 2, we have more detail. Revenue of $33.5 billion was up $3.1 billion or 10% year-on-year. Excluding the net investment securities losses, it was up 13%. NII ex Markets was up $5.7 billion or 51%, driven by higher rates. NIR ex Markets was down $3.2 billion or 24%, largely driven by lower IB fees and the securities losses. And Markets revenue was up $502 million or 8% year-on-year.

在第 2 頁，我們有更多詳細信息。收入 335 億美元，同比增長 31 億美元或 10%。剔除投資證券淨損失，增長了 13%。 NII ex Markets 上漲 57 億美元或 51%，受利率上漲的推動。 NIR ex Markets 下跌 32 億美元或 24%，主要受 IB 費用降低和證券損失的推動。市場收入同比增長 5.02 億美元或 8%。

Expenses of $19.2 billion were up $2.1 billion or 12% year-on-year, driven by higher structural costs and investments. And credit costs of $1.5 billion included net charge-offs of $727 million. The net reserve build of $808 million included a $937 million build in wholesale, reflecting loan growth and updates to the firm's macroeconomic scenarios, partially offset by $150 million release in Home Lending.

受結構成本和投資增加的推動，192 億美元的支出同比增長 21 億美元或 12%。 15 億美元的信貸成本包括 7.27 億美元的淨沖銷。 8.08 億美元的淨儲備增加包括 9.37 億美元的批發增加，反映了貸款增長和公司宏觀經濟情景的更新，部分被房屋貸款釋放的 1.5 億美元抵消。

On the balance sheet and capital on Page 3. We ended the quarter with a CET1 ratio of 12.5%, up 30 basis points versus the prior quarter, which was primarily driven by the benefit of net income less distributions, partially offset by the impact of AOCI.

在第 3 頁的資產負債表和資本方面。本季度末，我們的 CET1 比率為 12.5%，比上一季度上升 30 個基點，這主要是由於淨收入減去分配的收益，部分被AOCI。

RWA was down approximately $23 billion quarter-on-quarter, with growth in lending more than offset by continued active balance sheet management and lower market risk RWA. Given our results this quarter, we are well positioned to meet our CET1 targets of 12.5% in the fourth quarter and 13% in the first quarter of 2023. These current targets include a 50 basis point buffer over the growing regulatory requirements, which provides flexibility over the coming quarters.

RWA 環比下降約 230 億美元，貸款增長被持續積極的資產負債表管理和較低的市場風險 RWA 所抵消。鑑於我們本季度的業績，我們有能力實現第四季度 12.5% 和 2023 年第一季度 13% 的 CET1 目標。這些當前目標包括針對不斷增長的監管要求提供 50 個基點的緩衝，這提供了靈活性在接下來的幾個季度。

To conclude on capital, with the future increases in our risk-based requirements, SLR will no longer be our binding capital constraint. So we announced the call of $5.4 billion in press this quarter and issued $3.5 billion in sub debt to rebalance our capital stack.

總結一下資本，隨著未來我們基於風險的要求的增加，SLR 將不再是我們具有約束力的資本約束。因此，我們在本季度宣布了 54 億美元的新聞呼籲，並發行了 35 億美元的次級債務，以重新平衡我們的資本堆棧。

Now let's go to our businesses, starting on Page 4. Before I review CCB's performance, let me provide you with an update on the health of U.S. consumers and small businesses based on our data. Nominal spend is still strong across both discretionary and nondiscretionary categories, with combined debit and credit spend up 13% year-on-year. Cash buffers remain elevated across all income segments.

現在讓我們從第 4 頁開始討論我們的業務。在我回顧建行的業績之前，讓我根據我們的數據為您提供有關美國消費者和小企業健康狀況的最新信息。可自由支配和非可自由支配類別的名義支出仍然強勁，借記卡和貸記卡支出同比增長 13%。所有收入領域的現金緩衝都保持在較高水平。

However, with spending growing faster than income, we are seeing a continued decrease in median deposits year-on-year, particularly in the lower income segments. And not surprisingly, small business owners are increasingly focused on the risks and the economic outlook.

然而，隨著支出增長快於收入，我們看到存款中位數同比持續下降，尤其是在低收入領域。毫不奇怪，小企業主越來越關注風險和經濟前景。

Now moving to financial results. This quarter, CCB reported net income of $4.3 billion on revenue of $14.3 billion, which was up 14% year-on-year.

現在轉向財務結果。本季度，建行實現淨利潤 43 億美元，營收 143 億美元，同比增長 14%。

In Consumer & Business Banking, revenue was up 30% year-on-year, driven by higher NII on higher rates. Deposits were up 10% year-on-year and down 1% quarter-on-quarter. We ranked #1 in retail deposit share based on FDIC data, up 60% year-on-year, making us the fastest-growing among the top 20 banks. And we are now #1 in L.A., in addition to New York and Chicago, making us top ranked in the 3 largest markets.

在消費者和商業銀行業務中，收入同比增長 30%，這是由於利率上升導致 NII 上升。存款同比上升 10%，環比下降 1%。根據 FDIC 數據，我們的零售存款份額排名第一，同比增長 60%，使我們成為前 20 家銀行中增長最快的。除了紐約和芝加哥，我們現在在洛杉磯排名第一，這使我們在三大市場中名列前茅。

Client investment assets were down 10% year-on-year, driven by market performance, partially offset by flows, while lending revenue was down 34% year-on-year on lower production margins and volume.

在市場表現的推動下，客戶投資資產同比下降 10%，部分被流量抵消，而貸款收入同比下降 34%，原因是生產利潤率和數量下降。

Moving to Card & Auto. Revenue was up 9% year-on-year, driven by higher card NII, partially offset by lower auto lease income. Card outstandings were up 18% and while revolving balances were up 15%, driven by strong net new account originations and growth in revolving balances per account, they still remain slightly below pre-pandemic levels. And in Auto, originations were $7.5 billion, down 35%, due to lack of vehicle supply and rising rates.

轉向卡片和汽車。收入同比增長 9%，受卡 NII 增加的推動，部分被較低的汽車租賃收入所抵消。信用卡未償餘額增長了 18%，而循環餘額增長了 15%，這是由於新賬戶淨額強勁和每個賬戶循環餘額的增長，但仍略低於大流行前的水平。在汽車領域，由於汽車供應不足和費率上漲，原產地為 75 億美元，下降了 35%。

Expenses of $8 billion were up 11% year-on-year driven by the investments we're making in technology, travel, marketing and branches.

在我們對技術、旅遊、營銷和分支機構的投資推動下，80 億美元的支出同比增長 11%。

In terms of actual credit performance this quarter, credit costs were $529 million, reflecting net charge-offs of $679 million, which were up $188 million year-on-year, largely driven by loan growth in Card as well as a reserve release of $150 million in Home Lending. Card delinquencies remain well below pre-pandemic levels, though we continue to see gradual normalization.

在本季度的實際信貸表現方面，信貸成本為 5.29 億美元，反映淨沖銷 6.79 億美元，同比增加 1.88 億美元，主要受卡貸款增長和 150 美元準備金釋放的推動百萬房屋貸款。儘管我們繼續看到逐漸正常化，但信用卡拖欠率仍遠低於大流行前的水平。

Next, to CIB on Page 5. CIB reported net income of $3.5 billion on revenue of $11.9 billion. Investment Banking revenue of $1.7 billion was down 43% year-on-year. IB fees were down 47% versus a strong third quarter last year. We maintained our #1 rank with a year-to-date wallet share of 8.1%.

接下來是第 5 頁的 CIB。CIB 報告的淨收入為 35 億美元，收入為 119 億美元。投資銀行業務收入為 17 億美元，同比下降 43%。與去年強勁的第三季度相比，IB 費用下降了 47%。我們以 8.1% 的年初至今錢包份額保持了我們的第一名。

In Advisory, fees were down 31%, reflecting lower announced activity this year. Underwriting businesses continued to be affected by market volatility, resulting in fees down 40% for debt and down 72% for equity.

在諮詢方面，費用下降了 31%，反映了今年宣布的活動減少。承銷業務繼續受到市場波動的影響，導致債務費用下降 40%，股權費用下降 72%。

In terms of the fourth quarter outlook, we expect to be down versus a very strong prior year. And while our existing pipeline is healthy, conversion will, of course, depend on market conditions. Lending revenue of $323 million was up 32% versus the prior year, driven by higher NII on loan growth.

就第四季度的前景而言，我們預計將低於去年非常強勁的水平。雖然我們現有的管道是健康的，但轉換當然取決於市場條件。貸款收入為 3.23 億美元，較上年增長 32%，這得益於貸款增長帶來的 NII 較高。

Moving to Markets. Revenue was $6.8 billion, up 8% year-on-year. Fixed income was up 22%, as elevated volatility drove strong client activity in the macro franchise, partially offset by a less favorable environment in Securitized Products. Equity Markets were down 11% against a record third quarter last year. This quarter saw relative strength in derivatives, lower balances in prime and lower cash revenues on lower block activity.

轉移到市場。收入為 68 億美元，同比增長 8%。固定收益增長了 22%，因為波動性加劇推動了宏觀業務的強勁客戶活動，部分被證券化產品不太有利的環境所抵消。與去年創紀錄的第三季度相比，股票市場下跌了 11%。本季度衍生品相對強勢，主要資產餘額減少，大宗活動減少導致現金收入減少。

Payments revenue was $2 billion, up 22% year-on-year. Excluding the net impact of equity investments, it was up 41%, and the year-on-year growth was driven by higher rates and growth in fees.

支付收入為 20 億美元，同比增長 22%。剔除股權投資的淨影響，增長了 41%，同比增長是由更高的費率和費用增長推動的。

Securities Services revenue of $1.1 billion was relatively flat year-on-year. Expenses of $6.6 billion were up 13% year-on-year, largely driven by compensation. Credit costs were $513 million, driven by a net reserve build of $486 million.

證券服務收入為 11 億美元，與去年同期相比相對持平。 66 億美元的支出同比增長 13%，主要受薪酬驅動。信貸成本為 5.13 億美元，受淨儲備金 4.86 億美元的推動。

Moving to Commercial Banking on Page 6. Commercial Banking reported net income of $946 million. Record revenue of $3 billion was up 21% year-on-year, driven by higher deposit margins, partially offset by lower Investment Banking revenue. Gross Investment Banking revenue of $761 million was down 43% year-on-year, driven by reduced capital markets activity. Expenses of $1.2 billion were up 14% year-on-year.

轉到第 6 頁的商業銀行業務。商業銀行業務報告的淨收入為 9.46 億美元。創紀錄的 30 億美元收入同比增長 21%，這主要得益於較高的存款利潤率，但部分被投資銀行業務收入的下降所抵消。由於資本市場活動減少，投資銀行業務總收入為 7.61 億美元，同比下降 43%。 12 億美元的支出同比增長 14%。

Deposits were down 6% year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, primarily driven by attrition of nonoperating balances, while our core operating balances have shown stability as payment volumes continue to be robust.

存款同比和環比下降 6%，主要是由於非經營餘額減少，而我們的核心經營餘額顯示穩定，因為支付量繼續強勁。

Loans were up 13% year-on-year and 4% sequentially. C&I loans were up 7% sequentially, reflecting continued strength in originations and revolver utilization. CRE loans were up 2% sequentially, driven by lower prepayment activity in commercial term lending and real estate banking.

貸款同比增長 13%，環比增長 4%。 C&I 貸款環比增長 7%，反映出發起和循環使用的持續強勁。由於商業定期貸款和房地產銀行業務的提前還款活動減少，CRE 貸款環比增長 2%。

Finally, credit costs were $618 million, predominantly driven by a net reserve build of $587 million, while net charge-offs remained low.

最後，信貸成本為 6.18 億美元，主要受淨儲備金 5.87 億美元的推動，而淨沖銷仍然很低。

And then to complete our lines of business, AWM on Page 7. Asset & Wealth Management reported net income of $1.2 billion, with pretax margin of 36%. For the quarter, revenue of $4.5 billion was up 6% year-on-year, predominantly driven by deposits and loans on higher margins and balances, largely offset by reductions in management fees linked to this year's market declines.

然後為了完成我們的業務，AWM 在第 7 頁。資產和財富管理報告的淨收入為 12 億美元，稅前利潤率為 36%。本季度的收入為 45 億美元，同比增長 6%，主要受較高利潤率和余額的存款和貸款推動，很大程度上被與今年市場下滑相關的管理費減少所抵消。

Expenses of $3 billion were up 10% year-on-year, driven by compensation, including investments in our private banking advisory teams, technology and asset management initiatives.

在薪酬的推動下，30 億美元的支出同比增長 10%，包括對我們的私人銀行諮詢團隊、技術和資產管理計劃的投資。

For the quarter, net long-term inflows were $12 billion across fixed income, equities and alternatives. AUM of $2.6 trillion and overall client assets of $3.8 trillion were down 13% and 7% year-on-year respectively, driven by lower market levels, partially offset by continued net inflows. And finally, loans were flat quarter-on-quarter, while deposits were down 6% sequentially, driven by migration to investments, partially offset by client flows.

本季度，固定收益、股票和另類投資的長期淨流入為 120 億美元。 2.6 萬億美元的資產管理規模和 3.8 萬億美元的整體客戶資產分別同比下降 13% 和 7%，受市場水平下降的推動，部分被持續的淨流入所抵消。最後，貸款環比持平，而存款環比下降 6%，受投資轉移的推動，部分被客戶流動所抵消。

Turning to Corporate on Page 8. Corporate reported a net loss of $294 million. Revenue was a net loss of $302 million compared to a net loss of $1.3 billion last year. NII was $792 million, up $1.8 billion year-on-year, driven by the impact of higher rates. NIR was a loss of $1.1 billion, down $852 million, primarily due to the securities losses I mentioned upfront. And expenses of $305 million were higher by $125 million year-on-year.

轉到第 8 頁的企業。企業報告淨虧損 2.94 億美元。收入淨虧損 3.02 億美元，而去年淨虧損 13 億美元。 NII 為 7.92 億美元，同比增長 18 億美元，受加息影響。 NIR 損失了 11 億美元，減少了 8.52 億美元，主要是由於我前面提到的證券損失。 3.05 億美元的支出同比增加 1.25 億美元。

Next, the outlook on Page 9. Going forward, we will also provide guidance for total firm-wide NII. For the fourth quarter, we expect it to be approximately $19 billion, implying full year 2022 NII of approximately $66 billion. And we expect NII ex Markets for the fourth quarter to also be about $19 billion, implying that we expect Markets NII to be around 0, which brings the full year to about $61.5 billion.

接下來是第 9 頁的展望。展望未來，我們還將為整個公司的 NII 提供指導。對於第四季度，我們預計其約為 190 億美元，這意味著 2022 年全年 NII 約為 660 億美元。我們預計第四季度除市場外的 NII 也約為 190 億美元，這意味著我們預計市場 NII 將在 0 左右，這使全年達到約 615 億美元。

While we're not giving 2023 NII guidance today, you will recall that at Investor Day, we talked about a fourth quarter 2022 NII ex Markets run rate of $66 billion, with potential upside for the full year 2023. Today's guidance for the fourth quarter of this year implies an approximate run rate of $76 billion. And from this much higher level, we would now expect some modest decline for the full year 2023.

雖然我們今天沒有給出 2023 年 NII 的指導，但您會記得在投資者日，我們談到了 2022 年第四季度的 NII（除市場外）運行率為 660 億美元，2023 年全年有潛在的上行空間。今天第四季度的指導今年意味著大約 760 億美元的運行率。從這個更高的水平來看，我們現在預計 2023 年全年會出現小幅下降。

In addition, there's quite a bit of uncertainty surrounding the trajectory of key drivers, including rates, deposit reprice and loan growth, so keep both of those things in mind, as you update the 2023 estimates in your models.

此外，關鍵驅動因素的軌跡存在相當多的不確定性，包括利率、存款重定價和貸款增長，因此在更新模型中的 2023 年估計值時，請牢記這兩點。

Moving to expenses. Our outlook remains unchanged. And as it relates to the card net charge-off rate, we now expect the full year rate to be approximately 1.5%, below our previous expectations.

轉移到費用上。我們的展望保持不變。由於它與信用卡淨沖銷率有關，我們現在預計全年利率約為 1.5%，低於我們之前的預期。

So to wrap up, we are happy with the strong diversified performance of the quarter, as we continue to navigate an environment of elevated uncertainty.

因此，總而言之，我們對本季度強勁的多元化表現感到滿意，因為我們繼續在不確定性升高的環境中航行。

With that, I will turn it over to Jamie for some additional remarks.

有了這個，我將把它交給 Jamie 來補充一些意見。

Jeremy, thank you very much. Hello, everybody. I just wanted to give you a little more insight into how we're looking at capital and interest rates a little bit. So capital planning, we're very comfortable with the earnings power of this company, which, you can see, is enormous and the margins and the returns. And more importantly than that is we're growing franchise value, I think, all around the firm.

傑里米，非常感謝。大家好。我只是想讓您更深入地了解我們如何看待資本和利率。所以資本規劃，我們對這家公司的盈利能力非常滿意，你可以看到，它是巨大的，利潤和回報。更重要的是，我認為，我們在整個公司內都在增加特許經營價值。

And in most areas, we're up in market share, in a few areas, we're not, and of course, that disappoints us. But the earnings power gives us a lot of confidence that we'll get over that 13% in the first quarter. But we always have to keep in mind the volatility and a bunch of other things. So we know we have to deal with Basel IV. We don't know when and how this is going to be, and any change in G-SIB such as an uncertainty in back of our mind.

在大多數領域，我們的市場份額都在上升，在少數領域，我們沒有，當然，這讓我們失望。但盈利能力給了我們很大的信心，我們將在第一季度超過 13%。但我們始終必須牢記波動性和其他一些事情。所以我們知道我們必須處理巴塞爾IV。我們不知道這將在何時以及如何發生，以及 G-SIB 的任何變化，例如我們腦海中的不確定性。

AOCI. AOCI was traditionally countercyclical, but this kind of environment is more pro-cyclical. So think of it (inaudible) 100 basis points, that's $4 billion, easily can handle it just in the back of our mind.

AOCI。 AOCI 傳統上是逆週期的，但這種環境更加順週期。所以想一想（聽不清）100 個基點，也就是 40 億美元，我們可以輕鬆地在腦海中處理它。

CECL. CECL already incorporates a percent of what we think the adverse consequences might be. But obviously, if the environment gets worse, we'll have to add to reserves, and/or if we change our outlook, meaning that we think the chance of adverse events are higher, we'll change our reserves.

CECL。 CECL 已經包含了我們認為可能產生的不利後果的百分比。但顯然，如果環境變得更糟，我們將不得不增加儲備，和/或如果我們改變我們的前景，這意味著我們認為不利事件的可能性更高，我們將改變我們的儲備。

Put in the back of your mind that if your unemployment goes to 5% or 6%, you're probably talking about $5 billion or $6 billion over the course of a couple of quarters. Again, easy to handle, not a big deal. It just does affect capital a little bit.

請記住，如果您的失業率達到 5% 或 6%，那麼您可能會在幾個季度內談論 50 億或 60 億美元。同樣，易於處理，沒什麼大不了的。它只是對資本有一點影響。

And then RWA management, I mean, I think we're showing that we can easily manage RWA and drive it down in some areas and up in other areas and stuff like that. With that, what I would say, a very limited financial effect. And the way you should look at this is we don't tell commercial bank or investment bank don't get new business, don't serve new clients. So we're serving clients that we always do, and you see the loan books growing in a lot of areas, but there are some discretionary things which barely affect us.

然後是風險加權資產管理，我的意思是，我認為我們展示了我們可以輕鬆管理風險加權資產，並在某些領域降低風險加權資產，在其他領域提高風險加權資產等等。有了這個，我會說，一個非常有限的財務影響。你應該看待這個問題的方式是，我們不會告訴商業銀行或投資銀行不要獲得新業務，不要服務新客戶。因此，我們一直在為客戶提供服務，您會看到許多領域的貸款賬簿都在增長，但有些可自由支配的事情幾乎不會影響我們。

So we're not putting -- conforming mortgage on the balance sheet, whether we originate them or whether correspondents originate them the most part because it makes very low sense to do that in the balance sheet, and we make other choices. And so we've got a lot of tools to manage it. Obviously, with the capital requirements going up, we're going to find ways to reduce RWA. I'm talking about over years strategically, I think without affecting our basic franchises.

因此，我們不會在資產負債表上放置符合要求的抵押貸款，無論是我們發起它們還是代理行發起它們，因為在資產負債表中這樣做的意義非常低，我們會做出其他選擇。所以我們有很多工具來管理它。顯然，隨著資本要求的提高，我們將找到降低 RWA 的方法。我說的是多年來的戰略，我認為不會影響我們的基本特許經營權。

Interest rates. I think the way to look at it is we're fairly neutral at this point. Interest rates going up or down. Jeremy said the $19 billion, please do not annualize that. There are a lot of uncertainties today. And I'm just going to mention a few. We're not worried about them. It's not going to change things dramatically, but does change things. What's going to be QT's effect on deposits? How much deposit migration you're going to have in this new technological environment? And there are pluses and minus from that.

利率。我認為看待它的方式是我們在這一點上相當中立。利率上升或下降。傑里米說 190 億美元，請不要按年計算。今天有很多不確定性。我只想提幾個。我們不擔心他們。它不會顯著改變事情，但確實會改變事情。 QT對存款的影響是什麼？在這種新技術環境下，您將進行多少存款遷移？這有好處也有壞處。

And of course, there are lags in consumer. There can be some lags in treasury services. There can be some lags in commercial banking. So it's just on the back of the mind, we're going to kind of actively manage that.

當然，消費者也存在滯後。國庫服務可能存在一些滯後。商業銀行業務可能存在一些滯後。所以它只是在腦海中，我們將積極地管理它。

And the other thing I want to point out is that taking investment securities losses for the most part, it could be more to sell our rich securities and replacement chief securities. We don't want to be locked into something we think will get worse and not take a chance to buy something that we think will get better. So you might expect to see that taking place now.

我想指出的另一件事是，大部分投資證券虧損，可能更多的是出售我們的豐富證券和替代主要證券。我們不想被鎖定在我們認為會變得更糟的東西中，也不想冒險購買我們認為會變得更好的東西。因此，您可能希望現在看到這種情況。

There may be some securities loss in the future, we can do that. We're not doing -- we can do this to manage interest rate exposure. But for the most part, we can do that with swaps to or other things. We just do it the most efficient and effective way. I want the people manage these portfolios to know that we can sell things. They don't want to own and buy things that we do want to own. And Other than that, we think it was a very, very good strong quarter across the board.

未來可能會有一些證券損失，我們可以做到。我們沒有這樣做——我們可以這樣做來管理利率風險。但在大多數情況下，我們可以通過交換或其他方式來做到這一點。我們只是以最有效和最有效的方式去做。我希望管理這些投資組合的人知道我們可以賣東西。他們不想擁有和購買我們想要擁有的東西。除此之外，我們認為這是一個非常非常好的全面強勁的季度。

And I guess, we'll open for questions now.

我想，我們現在就開始提問。

Yes. Thanks, Jamie. Let's go ahead and open up for questions.

是的。謝謝，傑米。讓我們繼續提出問題。

Please stand by. And the first question is coming from the line of Ken Usdin from Jefferies.

請待命。第一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Ken Usdin。

I just wanted to follow up on the NII and the deposit side to Jamie's comments there. Obviously that one of the toughest uncertainties is to understand how we think about flows and mix and beta. So just starting to see it, it looks like in terms of deposit costs starting to increase. So how do you think about it now in this new environment, where we might go to 4.5, maybe higher in terms of how betas might act over the course of this cycle as compared to any prior cycles and previous thoughts?

我只是想跟進 NII 和 Jamie 在存款方面的評論。顯然，最棘手的不確定性之一是了解我們如何看待流量、混合和貝塔。因此，剛開始看到它，就存款成本而言，它似乎開始增加。那麼你現在如何看待這個新環境，我們可能會達到 4.5，與之前的任何週期和之前的想法相比，在這個週期的過程中 beta 的行為方式可能更高？

Yes. Thanks, Ken. So at Investor Day, you recall that Jamie said that we expected betas to be low this cycle, as they were in the prior cycle, which was a low beta cycle by historical standards. And what we're now seeing, as we see the rate hikes come through and we see the deposit rate paid develop, is that we're seeing realized betas being even lower than the prior cycle, just through the actuals.

是的。謝謝，肯。所以在投資者日，你記得傑米說我們預計這個週期的貝塔值會很低，就像他們在前一個週期中一樣，按照歷史標準，這是一個低貝塔週期。我們現在看到的是，當我們看到加息和我們看到支付的存款利率在發展時，我們看到實際的貝塔係數甚至低於前一個週期，只是通過實際情況。

And the question is why is that? And it's, of course, we don't really know, but plausible theories include the speed of the hikes, which probably means that some of this is lagged, but also the fact that the system is more better positioned from a liquidity perspective than in prior cycles.

問題是為什麼會這樣？當然，我們真的不知道，但合理的理論包括加息的速度，這可能意味著其中一些是滯後的，而且從流動性的角度來看，該系統比在之前的周期。

So as we look forward, we know that lags are significant right now. We know that at some point, that will start to come out. Obviously, in wholesale, they come out much faster. That's probably starting to happen now. But the exact timing of how that develops is going to be very much a function of the competitive environment in the marketplace for deposits, and we'll see how that plays out.

因此，當我們向前看時，我們知道現在滯後很重要。我們知道，在某個時候，它會開始出現。顯然，在批發中，它們出來的速度要快得多。這可能現在開始發生了。但是，這種情況如何發展的確切時間將在很大程度上取決於存款市場的競爭環境，我們將拭目以待。

Got it. Okay. And then just the second follow-up on Jamie's points about like, okay, if things do look worse ahead -- looking ahead you might have to build a little bit more understandable over the next couple of years. Can you just help us understand just where you are in your scenarios build and just today still looks great, tomorrow, there's some more uncertainty. So how do we just get to start to understand how quickly and how you get your handle on that magnitude of ACL delta? And how do you think about it versus either, I don't know, pandemic peak or day 1 CECL? It's very hard for all of us to see this, of course.

知道了。好的。然後只是對 Jamie 的觀點的第二次跟進，好吧，如果事情確實看起來更糟 - 展望未來，你可能需要在接下來的幾年裡建立一些更容易理解的東西。你能不能幫助我們了解你在你的場景構建中所處的位置，今天看起來仍然很棒，明天，會有更多的不確定性。那麼，我們如何才能開始了解如何快速以及如何處理如此大的 ACL 增量呢？您如何看待它與我不知道的大流行高峰或第 1 天 CECL？當然，我們所有人都很難看到這一點。

Yes. As you know, I think CECL is obviously bad accounting policy. Honestly, I wouldn't spend too much time on it because it's not a real number. It's a hypothetical, probability-based number. And the way -- I'm trying to make it very simple for you. So if you look at the pandemic, we put up $15 billion over 2 quarters, and then we took it down over 3 or 4 after that, okay? And all it did swing all these numbers, and it didn't change that much.

是的。如你所知，我認為 CECL 顯然是糟糕的會計政策。老實說，我不會花太多時間在上面，因為它不是一個實數。這是一個假設的、基於概率的數字。還有方式——我試圖讓你變得非常簡單。所以如果你看看這場大流行病，我們在兩個季度內投入了 150 億美元，然後我們在 3 或 4 個季度內將其減少，好嗎？它確實改變了所有這些數字，並且沒有太大變化。

I'm trying to give you a number, obviously, this number to be plus or minus several billion. But if unemployment goes to 6% and that becomes the central kind of case, and then you have possibilities to get better and possibilities gets worse, we would probably add something like $5 billion or $6 billion.

我想給你一個數字，很明顯，這個數字是正負幾十億。但是，如果失業率達到 6%，並且這成為主要的情況，那麼你有可能變得更好，也有可能變得更糟，我們可能會增加大約 50 億美元或 60 億美元。

That probably would happen over 2 or 3 quarters. I mean that's as simple I can make it. Right now, what we have -- right now, we already have [8%] in these adverse and severe adverse case. We can -- if we change that next quarter, that will be part of that $6 billion I'm talking about.

這可能會在 2 或 3 個季度內發生。我的意思是這很簡單，我可以做到。現在，我們所擁有的——現在，在這些不利和嚴重的不利情況下，我們已經擁有 [8%]。我們可以——如果我們改變下個季度，那將是我所說的 60 億美元的一部分。

Yes. Okay. Understood.

是的。好的。明白了。

The next question is coming from the line of Ebrahim Poonawala from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

下一個問題來自美銀美林的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

I guess just following up, Jamie. So I appreciate CECL and the model-based approach. I think you were quoted in the press talking about the potential for a recession in the next 6 to 9 months. Would appreciate any perspective in terms of are you beginning to see cracks, either be it commercial, real estate, consumer where it feels like the economic pain from inflation, higher rates is beginning to filter through to your clients? I would appreciate any insights there.

我想只是跟進，傑米。所以我很欣賞 CECL 和基於模型的方法。我想你在媒體上談到了未來 6 到 9 個月經濟衰退的可能性。如果你開始看到裂縫，無論是商業、房地產、消費者，如果感覺像通貨膨脹帶來的經濟痛苦，更高的利率開始滲透到你的客戶身上，你會很感激嗎？我會很感激那裡的任何見解。

Yes. I'll take that Ebrahim. Thanks. The short answer to that question is just no. We just don't see anything that you could realistically describe as a crack in any of our actual credit performance. I made some comments about this in the prepared remarks on the consumer side. But we've done some fairly detailed analysis about different cohorts and early delinquency bucket entry rates and stuff like that. And we do see, in some cases, some tiny increases. But generally, in almost all cases, we think that's normalization, and it's even slower than we expect, so...

是的。我會接受那個易卜拉欣。謝謝。對這個問題的簡短回答是否定的。我們只是看不到任何你可以實際描述為我們實際信用表現的裂縫的東西。我在消費者方面準備好的評論中對此發表了一些評論。但是我們已經對不同的同類群組和早期犯罪桶進入率等進行了一些相當詳細的分析。在某些情況下，我們確實看到了一些微小的增長。但總的來說，幾乎在所有情況下，我們都認為這是正常化，甚至比我們預期的還要慢，所以......

Yes. I think we're in an environment where it's kind of odd, which is very strong consumer spend. You see it in our numbers. You see it in other people's numbers, up 10% prior to last year, up 35% pre-COVID. Balance sheets are very good for consumers. Credit card borrowing is normalizing, not getting worse. You might see -- and that's really good. So you go in to recession, you've got a very strong consumer.

是的。我認為我們所處的環境有點奇怪，這是非常強勁的消費者支出。你可以在我們的數字中看到它。你可以在其他人的數據中看到這一點，比去年增長 10%，在 COVID 之前增長 35%。資產負債表對消費者非常有利。信用卡借貸正在正常化，而不是變得更糟。你可能會看到——這真的很好。所以你進入衰退，你有一個非常強大的消費者。

However, it's rather predictable if you look at how they're spending and inflation. So inflation is 10% reduces that by 10%. And that extra cap -- money they have in the checking accounts will deplete probably by sometime midyear next year. And then, of course, you have inflation, higher rates, higher mortgage rates, oil volatility, war. So those things are out there, and that is not a crack in current numbers. It's quite predictable. It will strain future numbers.

然而，如果你看看他們的支出和通貨膨脹情況，這是相當可預測的。所以通貨膨脹率是 10% 會減少 10%。而這個額外的上限——他們在支票賬戶中的錢可能會在明年年中的某個時候耗盡。然後，當然，還有通貨膨脹、更高的利率、更高的抵押貸款利率、石油波動和戰爭。所以這些東西就在那裡，這並不是當前數字的裂縫。這是可以預見的。這將使未來的數字變得緊張。

And just tied to that, I think the other thing that investors from the outside worry about is interconnectedness of the systems, be it the U.K. [gilts] market, LBOs. How much are you worried about that part of the business in terms of having a meaningful impact in terms of a capital shock at some point over the next year, just given all the QT happening around the world?

與此相關的是，我認為外部投資者擔心的另一件事是系統的互連性，無論是英國 [gilts] 市場還是 LBO。考慮到全球範圍內發生的所有 QT，您對這部分業務的擔憂程度如何？

I mentioned QT as being one of the uncertainties because it's a very large change in the flow of funds around the world, who are the buyers and sellers of sovereign debt. There's a lot of sovereign debt and -- but I think if you look at the (inaudible) is a bump. It's not going to change what we do or how we do it. And you're going to see bumps like that because all of the things I already mentioned. It's inevitable that you're going to see them. Whether they create systemic risk, I don't know.

我提到 QT 是不確定性之一，因為它是全球資金流動的一個非常大的變化，他們是主權債務的買家和賣家。有很多主權債務，而且——但我認為，如果你看一下（聽不清），那就是一個顛簸。它不會改變我們所做的事情或我們做事的方式。你會看到這樣的顛簸，因為我已經提到了所有的事情。你不可避免地會看到他們。我不知道它們是否會造成系統性風險。

I have pointed out, it's harder for banks to intermediate in that, and that creates a little bit more fragility in the system. That does not mean that you're going to see a crack of some sort. But again, it's almost impossible, not to have real volatility based on the fact what I told you. Those are large uncertainties that we know about today and in the future.

我已經指出，銀行更難在這方面進行調解，這會在系統中造成更多的脆弱性。這並不意味著你會看到某種裂縫。但同樣，根據我告訴你的事實，沒有真正的波動幾乎是不可能的。這些是我們今天和未來所知道的巨大不確定性。

The next question is coming from the line of Jim Mitchell from Seaport Global Securities.

下一個問題來自 Seaport Global Securities 的 Jim Mitchell。

Jeremy, at the Investor Day, you noted that expense growth in '23 would slow from this year's level and might be slightly higher than consensus expectations at the time. So is that -- now that you get closer to next year, is that still hold? And if the economy does get worse than expected, is there some levers to pull? Or is it just still investing heavily regardless?

傑里米，在投資者日，您指出 23 年的費用增長將比今年的水平放緩，並且可能略高於當時的普遍預期。那是這樣 - 現在你離明年越來越近了，這仍然成立嗎？如果經濟確實比預期的更糟，是否有一些槓桿可以拉動？還是它仍然不顧一切地進行大量投資？

Yes. Thanks, Jim. So broadly, yes, it still holds. No real change on the outlook. Just to remind everyone, at Investor Day, I think the consensus was 79.5 for 2023. We said you were a little low. I think it got revised up to sort of the 80.5 or something like that. And that's still -- that's now still roughly in the right ballpark.

是的。謝謝，吉姆。如此廣泛地說，是的，它仍然成立。前景沒有真正的變化。提醒大家，在投資者日，我認為 2023 年的共識是 79.5。我們說你有點低。我認為它已被修改為 80.5 或類似的東西。這仍然是 - 現在仍然大致在正確的範圍內。

Obviously, we're going through our budget cycle. We're looking at the opportunity set and the environment set for next year. So it's not turned stone. But broadly, on the question of investment, and I'm sure Jamie will agree here, that our investment decisions are very much through the cycle decisions. And so we're not going to tend to change those just because of a sort of difference in the short-term economic environment. Of course, the volume and revenue-related expense can fluctuate as a function of the environment, as you would expect.

顯然，我們正在經歷我們的預算週期。我們正在研究明年的機會和環境。所以它沒有變成石頭。但從廣義上講，關於投資問題，我相信傑米會在這裡同意，我們的投資決策很大程度上是通過週期決策。因此，我們不會因為短期經濟環境的某種差異而傾向於改變這些。當然，如您所料，數量和與收入相關的費用會隨著環境的變化而波動。

I would just like to add. Obviously, compensation go up or down dramatically. So you'll have different estimates about investment pacing revenues and markets revenues, and we can't really adjust for your numbers for that. But I just want to point out the other side of this, we're making heavy investments and we have among the best margins in the business. I think that's a very good thing.

我只想補充。顯然，薪酬會大幅上升或下降。因此，您對投資節奏收入和市場收入會有不同的估計，我們無法為此調整您的數字。但我只想指出另一方面，我們正在進行大量投資，並且我們擁有業內最好的利潤率。我認為這是一件非常好的事情。

Right. And maybe on that front, leverage loan write -- were there any leverage loan write-downs this quarter? And is that -- and how do you -- is that market beginning to clear? Or are there still overhangs?

正確的。也許在這方面，槓桿貸款減記——本季度是否有任何槓桿貸款減記？那是——你如何——市場開始出清了嗎？還是還有懸垂？

There are no real leverage loan write-down this quarter, and that market isn't yet clear. We own -- our share of it is very small. So we're very comfortable.

本季度沒有真正的槓桿貸款減記，市場尚不清楚。我們擁有——我們的份額非常小。所以我們很舒服。

The next question is coming from the line of John McDonald from Autonomous.

下一個問題來自 Autonomous 的 John McDonald。

Jeremy, I wanted to ask about your EAR disclosures, what we call your rate sensitivity disclosures. They look a little different than peers. And when we look at the sensitivity to 100 basis points of higher rates beyond the forward curve, it looks like you're liability-sensitive. Can you give us some context of maybe the limitations of that disclosure and how we should put that in context of the assumptions behind it?

傑里米，我想問一下您的 EAR 披露，我們稱之為您的利率敏感性披露。他們看起來與同齡人略有不同。當我們觀察對遠期曲線以外更高利率 100 個基點的敏感度時，看起來你對負債敏感。您能否給我們一些關於該披露的局限性的背景以及我們應該如何將其置於其背後的假設背景下？

Yes. Thanks, John. And I'd love to have a very long conversation with you about this, but I'm going to keep it short here. It's really all about lags. So as our disclosure says, we do not include the impact of reprice lags in our EAR calculation. So as a result of that, the entire calculation is based on modeled rates paid in the [terminal] state.

是的。謝謝，約翰。我很想和你就這件事進行一次很長的談話，但我會在這裡保持簡短。這真的都是關於滯後的。因此，正如我們披露的那樣，我們沒有將重新定價滯後的影響納入我們的 EAR 計算中。因此，整個計算基於在 [終端] 狀態下支付的模型費率。

As you well know, right now, we're in the middle of some very significant lags, which are affecting the numbers quite a bit and which we expect to persist for some time. So as a result of that, what I would expect in the near term is something quite similar to what we've experienced this year.

眾所周知，現在，我們正處於一些非常顯著的滯後期，這對數字產生了相當大的影響，我們預計這種滯後會持續一段時間。因此，我預計短期內的情況與我們今年所經歷的情況非常相似。

As you know, this year, as rates have gone up, we've revised our NII outlook from 50 at the beginning of the year to now 61.5. So as we look forward in the near term from here, I would expect similar type sensitivities or rate fluctuations given the lag environment that we're in.

如您所知，今年，隨著利率上升，我們將 NII 展望從年初的 50 修正為現在的 61.5。因此，當我們從這裡展望短期內，考慮到我們所處的滯後環境，我預計會有類似的類型敏感性或速率波動。

And just to follow up on Jamie's comments about not annualizing the fourth quarter, is that where the risks lie to annualize in the fourth quarter? What are some of the puts and takes that you said it might be down a little bit from that fourth quarter annualized?

只是為了跟進傑米關於不將第四季度年化的評論，這是否是第四季度年化的風險所在？您說哪些看跌期權可能會比第四季度的年化收益率有所下降？

Yes. I've already mentioned, you have a rapidly changing yield curve deposit migration. Everyone does EAR differently. So one is lag, one is -- we assume deposit migration. Some people don't. We assume -- our ECR is included there, some people don't and all of that. I just think for your models, because of all that kind of stuff, just use a number less than annualized in (inaudible). So if there is 76, use a number like 74. Just keep it as simple as possible, and we don't know. We hope to beat that, but with all the stuff going on, I just -- you just got to be a little cautious and conservative.

是的。我已經提到，你有一個快速變化的收益率曲線存款遷移。每個人做 EAR 的方式都不一樣。所以一個是滯後，一個是 - 我們假設存款遷移。有些人沒有。我們假設——我們的 ECR 包含在其中，有些人沒有，所有這些。我只是認為對於您的模型，由於所有這些東西，只需使用一個小於年化的數字（聽不清）。因此，如果有 76，請使用像 74 這樣的數字。盡可能簡單，我們不知道。我們希望能打敗它，但隨著所有事情的發生，我只是——你必須要謹慎和保守一點。

The next question is coming from the line of Erika Najarian from UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Erika Najarian。

I agree with Ebrahim that your presentation this morning was quite crisp and impactful. So I'm going to ask the question that I think has been sort of the key debate to the stock all year.

我同意易卜拉欣的觀點，即你今天早上的演講非常清晰和有影響力。所以我要問一個我認為全年對股票進行關鍵辯論的問題。

So at Investor Day in May, you mentioned a ROTCE target of 17%, and that was before we found out that the SCB would be higher in June. As we think about your capital build is going faster than expected and you think about the revenue power that shows through in this firm, plus or minus what may happen with CECL, do you think you can achieve 17% ROTCE next year?

所以在 5 月的投資者日，你提到了 17% 的 ROTCE 目標，那是在我們發現 SCB 會在 6 月走高之前。當我們考慮到您的資本建設速度比預期的要快，並且您考慮到這家公司所顯示的收入能力，加上或減去 CECL 可能發生的情況時，您認為您明年可以實現 17% 的 ROTCE 嗎？

Yes. That's obviously a good question. The answer is yes. And one of the things we always look at is normalized ROTCE. So we're very honest. We are -- we're not over earning in NII, maybe a little bit because the lags and stuff like that, but not a lot, but we are over earning on credit. Think of credit card. And the 1.5%, we've never seen a number of that low risk. We're quite conscious of that.

是的。這顯然是個好問題。答案是肯定的。我們經常關注的一件事是標準化的 ROTCE。所以我們很誠實。我們 - 我們在 NII 中的收入並沒有過高，也許是因為滯後和類似的東西，但不是很多，但我們在信用方面的收入過高。想想信用卡。而 1.5%，我們從未見過這麼低的風險。我們很清楚這一點。

So we don't drag about the 19% this quarter, thinking that's going to continue, but it was not. And obviously, we may adjust that 17% a little bit, but it's not a material adjustment. We're going to -- we've got a lot of great bright people. We're going to find a lot of ways to squeeze some of these things down, including like call CCAR is and SCB and liquidate some assets and change business models just a little bit.

因此，我們不會拖累本季度的 19%，認為這會繼續下去，但事實並非如此。顯然，我們可能會稍微調整 17%，但這不是實質性調整。我們要——我們有很多聰明的人。我們將找到很多方法來壓縮其中一些東西，包括調用 CCAR 和 SCB，清算一些資產並稍微改變商業模式。

If you look at our acquisition, for example, they were a non-G-SIFI acquisitions, noncapital, non-G-SIFI, all services and service related. So that's what we're going to do over time, and we're pretty comfortable that we'll get very good returns. So yes, we're quite -- and next year is totally dependent on what happens in (inaudible). But the other thing I would look at, maybe both given this number of other time, is what would we earn in a recession? We would have pretty damn good returns in a recession. I mean, so I feel very good about that.

如果你看我們的收購，例如，他們是非 G-SIFI 收購，非資本，非 G-SIFI，所有服務和服務相關。所以這就是我們隨著時間的推移要做的事情，我們很高興我們會得到很好的回報。所以是的，我們相當——明年完全取決於（聽不清）發生的事情。但我會考慮的另一件事，也許是考慮到其他時間，我們在經濟衰退中能賺到什麼？在經濟衰退中，我們將獲得相當不錯的回報。我的意思是，所以我對此感覺很好。

And this is a super micro question as a follow-up for Jeremy. Why would Markets NII be 0 next quarter? And should we expect that to be 0 next year?

這是傑里米跟進的一個超級微觀問題。為什麼 Markets NII 下個季度會為 0？我們應該期望明年為 0 嗎？

Yes. Thanks...

是的。謝謝...

We're advancing the Markets businesses at the yield curve. So you're earning (inaudible) book.

我們正在以收益率曲線推進市場業務。所以你正在賺（聽不清）書。

Yes, Erika. I mean, basically, as rates go up, the funding cost goes up. And the offsets on the other side, in many cases, work through derivatives or derivatives like instruments, so it goes through NIR. Fundamentally, we believe the Markets business revenue is rate insensitive. You can see that history through our disclosures this year. So as you look out to next year with the forward curve implying a much less biased evolution of Fed funds, you shouldn't expect to see as many changes at least from rates. Of course, we can sometimes see somewhat more unpredictable changes from balances, but that should be unbiased one way or the other.

是的，埃里卡。我的意思是，基本上，隨著利率上升，融資成本也會上升。另一方面，在許多情況下，偏移量通過衍生工具或工具之類的衍生工具起作用，因此它通過 NIR。從根本上說，我們認為市場業務收入對利率不敏感。您可以通過我們今年的披露看到這段歷史。因此，當您展望明年的遠期曲線意味著聯邦基金的偏差要小得多時，您不應該期望至少會看到利率發生如此多的變化。當然，我們有時會看到餘額的一些更不可預測的變化，但這應該是不偏不倚的。

The next question is coming from the line of Mike Mayo from Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Mike Mayo。

Jamie, once again, I'm trying to reconcile your actions with your words. You've said publicly, you mentioned the hurricane, you mentioned a recession. You mentioned look out, and there are all sorts of risks. I don't think anyone disagrees with that. On the other hand, your reserves to loans are still well below CECL day 1. So your actions with the reserving don't seem to reflect your more pessimistic comments about the economy. So how do I reconcile the two?

傑米，再一次，我試圖用你的話來調和你的行為。你公開說過，你提到了颶風，你提到了經濟衰退。你提到要小心，有各種各樣的風險。我認為沒有人不同意這一點。另一方面，您的貸款準備金仍遠低於 CECL 第 1 天。因此，您對準備金的行動似乎並未反映出您對經濟更為悲觀的評論。那麼我該如何調和兩者呢？

Yes. So the way to do that is in our CECL -- in our reserves today, there is a significant percentage probability that we put on adverse and severe adverse already. So it's in there already. A lot of people work in the CECL reserves. Our economist, Jeremy, a lot of other folks. It's not set by me because I have to think that the odds might be different than other people. And so -- but I conclude as Jeremy saying and -- but the numbers are very good. We have some of that. I'm trying to be very honest about if things get worse, here's what it mean for reserves. That may be different because, of course, these calculations change a lot of time.

是的。因此，做到這一點的方法是在我們的 CECL 中——在我們今天的儲備中，我們已經有很大的百分比概率出現不利和嚴重不利。所以它已經在裡面了。很多人在 CECL 保護區工作。我們的經濟學家傑里米，還有很多其他人。這不是我設定的，因為我必須認為賠率可能與其他人不同。所以——但我總結為傑里米所說的——但數字非常好。我們有一些。如果事情變得更糟，我會非常誠實，這就是儲備金的意義。這可能會有所不同，因為當然，這些計算會隨著時間的推移而改變。

But that will be, Michael, which is -- another thing, which in CECL, the timing of when something happens is very important. So if it happens -- if you said a recession is going to happen in the fourth quarter of next year, that would be very different. So it's going to happen in the first quarter of next year.

但這將是邁克爾，這是另一件事，在 CECL 中，事情發生的時間非常重要。因此，如果它發生了——如果你說經濟衰退將在明年第四季度發生，那將是非常不同的。所以這將在明年第一季度發生。

Yes, I just understood it as the lifetime losses on the loans as opposed to that.

是的，我只是把它理解為貸款的終生損失，而不是那個。

It is. But some loans -- yes, some loans have a short life and some loans have a long life.

這是。但是有些貸款——是的，有些貸款的壽命很短，有些貸款的壽命很長。

Let's just cut to the chase. So where are you versus 3 months ago? I mean, is it -- you certainly got headlines with the hurricane comment and all that. And it's -- look, like as you said, you have Fed tightening, QT, tighter capital rules for banks. You have like the trifecta of tightening by the Fed and then you have wars and everything else. So I don't think that even stock market supports your view and about all the risks out there, but are things better or worse or the same as they were 3 months ago?

讓我們切入正題。那麼與 3 個月前相比，你在哪裡？我的意思是，是嗎 - 你肯定會因為颶風評論和所有這些而成為頭條新聞。它是——就像你說的那樣，你有美聯儲收緊、QT、更嚴格的銀行資本規則。你有美聯儲收緊政策的三重奏，然後你有戰爭和其他一切。所以我認為即使是股票市場也不支持你的觀點和所有的風險，但情況是好還是壞，還是和三個月前一樣？

They're roughly the same. We're just getting closer to what you and I might consider bad events. So -- in my hurricane, I've been very consistent, but looking at probabilities and possibilities. There is still, for example, a possibility of a soft wind. We can debate. We think that percentage of yours might be different than mine, but there's a possibility of a mild recession. Consumers are in very good shape, companies are in a very good shape. And there's possibility of something worse, mostly because of the war in Ukraine and oil price and all things like that. Those -- I would not change my possibilities and probabilities this quarter versus last quarter for me...

它們大致相同。我們只是越來越接近你我可能認為的不良事件。所以 - 在我的颶風中，我一直非常一致，但著眼於概率和可能性。例如，仍有可能出現軟風。我們可以辯論。我們認為你的百分比可能與我的不同，但有可能出現溫和衰退。消費者狀況很好，公司狀況很好。並且有可能發生更糟糕的事情，主要是因為烏克蘭戰爭和石油價格以及諸如此類的所有事情。那些——對我來說，本季度與上一季度相比，我不會改變我的可能性和概率......

Yes. Last follow-up. I know your investor cycles. You've always done that. You're consistent. But I mean, your headcount increase is probably going to be the highest in the industry. I mean, headcount from 266,000 to 288,000, your CIB, you're adding headcount. I mean you did expect weakness in 9 months from now, wouldn't you wait to hire people, maybe get them a little cheaper?

是的。最後跟進。我知道你的投資者周期。你一直都是這樣做的。你是一致的。但我的意思是，您的員工人數增加可能是業內最高的。我的意思是，從 266,000 到 288,000 的員工人數，您的 CIB，您正在增加員工人數。我的意思是你確實預計從現在開始的 9 個月內會出現疲軟，你會不會等著僱人，或者讓他們便宜一點？

No.

不。

The next question is coming from the line of Betsy Graseck from Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。

A couple of questions. One, just on the investment spend. Could you give us a sense as to the areas that you're leaning in the most as we should be thinking about into next year? Because you've obviously done a lot this year with regard to technology advancement, companies that you're buying to enhance your digital capabilities and international expansion, in particular on the consumer side. So just thinking through is this continuation on those themes? Or is there something else we should be looking for?

幾個問題。一，就投資支出而言。您能否讓我們了解一下您最關注的領域，我們應該考慮到明年？因為你今年顯然在技術進步方面做了很多工作，你購買的公司是為了增強你的數字能力和國際擴張，特別是在消費者方面。所以只是想一想這些主題的延續嗎？還是我們應該尋找其他東西？

Betsy, it's exactly what we showed you at Investor Day, almost no change. So take out that deck, we broke out by business kind of investment. Investment spend in tech is pretty much on track for that.

Betsy，這正是我們在投資者日向您展示的內容，幾乎沒有變化。所以拿出那套牌，我們通過商業投資爆發了。科技投資支出在這方面幾乎步入正軌。

And the inflation that drives some of that cost structure, you can deal with through just efficiencies elsewhere. Is that fair?

而推動某些成本結構的通貨膨脹，你可以通過其他地方的效率來應對。這公平嗎？

Believe it or not, that was in the numbers we gave you in May.

信不信由你，這是我們在五月份給你的數字。

Okay. And then separately on the bond restructuring that you did this quarter and the comments around, look, we don't need to hold stuff we don't need to hold. We don't want to hold with that. That kind of suggests to me that there'll be more bond restructuring as we go through the next quarter. Is there any reason why you didn't clean the whole thing up this quarter?

好的。然後分別關於你本季度進行的債券重組以及周圍的評論，看，我們不需要持有我們不需要持有的東西。我們不想堅持這一點。這向我暗示，隨著我們進入下一季度，將會有更多的債券重組。你有什麼理由沒有在這個季度把整個事情都清理乾淨嗎？

No, I think I said we sell rich securities and buy cheap. So if you look at -- if you looked what happened to mortgage spreads, they gapped out. They gapped in, we bought. They gapped out, we sold. And that kind of stuff (inaudible) you could have different point of views, but -- and I do expect future bond losses going forward. I just don't think that's real earnings. So I think if I want our people -- our experts in the investment areas to know, if they really want to sell something, we're going to sell it. We're not going to sit here and lock ourselves into somebody who's gotten very, very rich because we feel like we can't take a bond loss. And remember, it doesn't affect capital. And in fact, when you reinvest it, which we tend to do, we actually have higher earnings going forward.

不，我想我說我們賣富證券，買便宜。因此，如果您查看 - 如果您查看抵押貸款利差發生了什麼，它們就會出現缺口。他們打了個折扣，我們買了。他們跳出來了，我們賣掉了。那種東西（聽不清）你可能有不同的觀點，但是——我確實預計未來的債券會出現虧損。我只是不認為這是真正的收益。所以我想如果我想讓我們的人——我們在投資領域的專家知道，如果他們真的想賣東西，我們就會賣掉它。我們不會坐在這裡，把自己鎖在一個變得非常非常富有的人身上，因為我們覺得我們不能承受債券損失。請記住，它不會影響資本。事實上，當你再投資時，我們傾向於這樣做，我們實際上會獲得更高的收益。

The next question is coming from the line of Glenn Schorr from Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Glenn Schorr。

And let me just add too, like you saw the CLOs gapped out in Europe. I want our people, when they gap out like [300 or 400] basis points, I want them to be willing to buy. They might sell something to do that, but that is a very smart thing to it.

讓我也補充一下，就像你看到 CLO 在歐洲的差距一樣。我希望我們的員工，當他們的差距像 [300 或 400] 個基點時，我希望他們願意購買。他們可能會出售一些東西來做到這一點，但這對它來說是一件非常聰明的事情。

Okay. So this is Glenn. So look, from time to time, where things happen in the market, we get these losses like Archegos and now this U.K. pension LDI issue. So my question for you is, besides that, do you have risk in the derivatives book? And is the situation done? It's more of when you meet with Risk Committee, are there pockets of leverage that you're considering on these big market moves, whether it be the dollar or rates where we are not thinking of like us? Or do you view the LDI issue as an isolated event?

好的。這就是格倫。因此，不時看看市場上發生的事情，我們會像 Archegos 和現在的英國養老金 LDI 問題一樣遭受這些損失。所以我問你的問題是，除此之外，你在衍生品書中有風險嗎？情況結束了嗎？更重要的是，當您與風險委員會會面時，您是否正在考慮在這些重大市場走勢中使用一些槓桿，無論是美元還是我們沒有像我們一樣考慮的利率？還是您將 LDI 問題視為孤立事件？

I'll mention, and Jeremy, you might have something to add. So the LDI thing is a bump in the road. And I think the Bank of England is also trying to get through this thing without changing the policy about monetary policy and QT. And I was surprised to see how much leverage there was in some of those pension plans.

我會提到，傑里米，你可能有什麼要補充的。所以LDI的事情是路上的一個顛簸。而且我認為英格蘭銀行也在試圖在不改變貨幣政策和 QT 政策的情況下解決這個問題。我很驚訝地看到其中一些養老金計劃有多少槓桿作用。

And my experience in life has been you have things like what we're going through today, there are going to be other surprises. Someone is going to be off sides. We don't see anything looks systemic, but there is leverage in certain credit portfolio, there is leverage for certain companies, there is leverage. So you're probably going to see some of that.

而我的生活經驗是，你會遇到我們今天正在經歷的事情，還會有其他驚喜。有人會站出來。我們沒有看到任何看起來系統性的東西，但某些信貸組合中有槓桿，某些公司有槓桿，有槓桿。所以你可能會看到其中的一些。

I do think you see volatile markets. You already see very low liquidity. So something like the LDI think could cause more issues down the road, if it happens constantly and stuff like that. But so far, it's a bump in the road. The banking system itself is extraordinarily strong.

我確實認為你看到了動蕩的市場。您已經看到流動性非常低。所以像 LDI 這樣的事情認為，如果它不斷發生之類的事情，可能會導致更多的問題。但到目前為止，這是一個顛簸。銀行系統本身非常強大。

Would the dollar qualify as one of those super strong moves that could put people offsides? And if so, how do you make sure you protect JPMorgan against that?

美元是否有資格成為可能使人們越位的超級強勢走勢之一？如果是這樣，你如何確保你保護摩根大通免受這種情況的影響？

Well, we're -- because we're -- we generally -- we do not -- we're not taking them. We generally hedge when it comes to big currencies and stuff like that. But yes, dollar flows, QT, emerging markets, hedge funds, yes, that would be a category that might -- something might happen there. It wouldn't be -- it shouldn't be something that's going to affect JPMorgan that much. In fact, it usually creates an opportunity for JPMorgan.

好吧，我們 - 因為我們 - 我們通常 - 我們不 - 我們不接受它們。當涉及到大宗貨幣和類似的東西時，我們通常會進行對沖。但是，是的，美元流動、QT、新興市場、對沖基金，是的，這將是一個可能——那裡可能會發生一些事情的類別。它不會——它不應該對摩根大通產生那麼大的影響。事實上，它通常會為摩根大通創造機會。

Yes, I'm not (inaudible) traditionally the case that emerging markets struggle, sovereign struggle with the kind of dollar strength that we're experiencing right now, but our emerging market franchise folks have been through these cycles before. So we manage through it.

是的，我不是（聽不清）傳統上新興市場掙扎的情況，主權與我們現在正在經歷的那種美元強勢的鬥爭，但我們的新興市場特許經營人員以前經歷過這些週期。所以我們通過它來管理。

Just to add to the strength of the franchise, I remember looking back at our emerging markets results by quarter over a decade. It was shocking to me how few quarters and how few countries we ever lost money. We may have had low returns in some quarters, but it was shocking. We made money in Argentina every -- almost every year for the last 20 years. And I think there was 1 quarter we put up reserves for one of the oil companies and took them down, but it's kind of very -- the stability is striking.

只是為了增加特許經營的實力，我記得回顧我們新興市場的業績，每十年來一個季度。令我震驚的是，我們虧損的季度和國家有多少。在某些方面，我們的回報率可能很低，但令人震驚。在過去的 20 年裡，我們幾乎每年都在阿根廷賺錢。而且我認為有 1 個季度我們為其中一家石油公司提供儲備並將其撤下，但這有點非常 - 穩定性是驚人的。

The next question is coming from the line of Gerard Cassidy from RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Gerard Cassidy。

You guys have been talking about the system liquidity with, Jamie, you referenced QT, also the fragility of the system. Can you share with us what are the metrics you guys are looking at to see if the system does have a problem on liquidity? Just this week, you probably saw that the Swiss National Bank upped its reserve, currency swapped lines to $6.3 billion. So what are some of the things you guys focus in on to see if there's going to be maybe more -- some liquidity issues that could lead to greater problems?

你們一直在談論系統流動性，傑米，你提到了 QT，還有系統的脆弱性。您能否與我們分享一下你們正在查看哪些指標來查看系統是否存在流動性問題？就在本週，您可能看到瑞士國家銀行將其儲備金、貨幣互換額度提高到 63 億美元。那麼你們關注的一些事情是什麼，看看是否會有更多——一些可能導致更大問題的流動性問題？

Yes. I mean, Gerard, broadly, if you just look at standard regulatory reporting of LCR ratios in the U.S. banking system, everyone just has very significant surpluses. And of course, we can go into the question of as QT plays through and how that interacts with RPM loan growth, whether that puts some pressure on banking system deposits, but that's starting from a very, very strong position. So there's a lot of cushion there for that to come down before you start to have a real challenge from a liquidity perspective.

是的。我的意思是，杰拉德，從廣義上講，如果你只看美國銀行系統 LCR 比率的標準監管報告，每個人都會有非常大的盈餘。當然，我們可以探討 QT 發揮作用以及它如何與 RPM 貸款增長相互作用的問題，這是否會給銀行系統存款帶來一些壓力，但這是從一個非常非常強大的位置開始的。因此，在從流動性角度開始面臨真正挑戰之前，有很多緩衝可以降低。

Yes. We look at everything from the Fed repo, deposit tightening to net issuance of treasury, net issuance of mortgages and treasury volatility and treasury bid-ask spreads and treasury markets and all that. We're looking at all of that. The banking itself is extremely strong, extremely strong. It's not -- what you're going to see will not be in the banking. And there may be a bankers outside somewhere, but it will be somewhere else. It might be in credit, it might be in emerging margins. It might be in FX, but you're likely to have something like that, you have events like the ones we're talking about.

是的。我們關注從美聯儲回購、存款緊縮到國債淨發行、抵押貸款淨發行和國債波動性以及國債買賣價差和國債市場等所有方面。我們正在研究這一切。銀行業本身非常強大，非常強大。它不是——你將看到的不會出現在銀行業務中。外面的某個地方可能有銀行家，但它會在其他地方。可能是信貸，也可能是新興利潤。它可能在 FX 中，但您可能會遇到類似的事情，您會遇到我們正在談論的事件。

Very good. And then in terms of the investment banking and capital markets businesses, can you guys give us any color into pipelines, how they stood at the end of the third quarter? And as you're going into the fourth quarter, what you're seeing in terms of those business lines?

很好。然後在投資銀行和資本市場業務方面，你們能否給我們一些關於管道的顏色，他們在第三季度末的情況如何？當您進入第四季度時，您對這些業務線有何看法？

Yes. And I've always pointed out to you all, the pipelines come and go, okay? You've seen that the size, there never had before. So pipeline is not necessarily to see. I would put in your model lower IB revenues next quarter than this quarter based on what we see today. Markets, we have no idea. Seasonally, it's generally a low quarter, the fourth quarter, but we don't know this quarter because there's so much activity taking place, and your guess is as good as ours.

是的。我一直向你們指出，管道來來去去，好嗎？您已經看到了以前從未有過的尺寸。所以管道不一定要看。根據我們今天看到的情況，我將在您的模型中放入下個季度的 IB 收入低於本季度。市場，我們不知道。季節性地，它通常是一個低季度，即第四季度，但我們不知道這個季度，因為發生了太多的活動，你的猜測和我們的猜測一樣好。

The next question is coming from the line of Matt O'Connor from Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Matt O'Connor。

Can you guys talk about the outlook for loan growth the next few quarters? And besides some of the obvious areas like leverage lending and correspondent mortgage you already talked about, any areas that you're tightening around the edges?

你們能談談未來幾個季度的貸款增長前景嗎？除了你已經談到的一些明顯的領域，比如槓桿貸款和代理抵押貸款，還有哪些你正在收緊的領域？

Yes, Matt, let me take your last question first. So in general, no, we underwrite through the cycle. We haven't -- we didn't really loosen our underwriting standards in the moment where everything looked great. And so we don't see any need to tighten now, really a lot of consistency there.

是的，馬特，讓我先回答你的最後一個問題。所以一般來說，不，我們在整個週期內承保。我們沒有 - 在一切看起來都很棒的那一刻，我們並沒有真正放鬆我們的承保標準。所以我們現在認為沒有必要收緊，那裡確實有很多一致性。

In terms of the actual loan growth outlook, we have said for this year, obviously, only 1 quarter left, that we'd have high single digits. No meaningful change in that outlook there, probably a little bit of a headwind as a function of rates, as you mentioned, and some of the RWA optimization in mortgages.

就實際貸款增長前景而言，我們顯然已經說過，今年只剩下一個季度，我們會有很高的個位數。那裡的前景沒有有意義的變化，正如你所提到的，作為利率的函數，可能有點逆風，以及抵押貸款中的一些 RWA 優化。

As we go into next year, we remain very positive and optimistic about the card story across a range of dimensions, in terms of both outstandings and revolve normalization. But for the rest of the loan growth environment, it's going to be, I think, very dependent, especially in wholesale on the macro situation. We know that in recession environments, we tend to see lower loan demand. At the same time, we've got a lot of great initiatives going and client engagement and new clients. So we'll just have to see how that plays out next year.

隨著我們進入明年，我們對卡片故事在一系列方面保持非常積極和樂觀，無論是在優秀還是在循環正常化方面。但對於其餘的貸款增長環境，我認為這將非常依賴於宏觀形勢，尤其是在批發方面。我們知道，在經濟衰退的環境中，我們往往會看到較低的貸款需求。與此同時，我們有很多偉大的舉措正在進行中，客戶參與度和新客戶。所以我們只需要看看明年的結果如何。

And I guess when we read headlines about home prices going down in some markets and car prices starting to roll, I mean, why doesn't that drive some tightening in those businesses?

我想當我們讀到一些市場的房價下跌和汽車價格開始上漲的頭條新聞時，我的意思是，為什麼這不會導致這些企業收緊呢？

Well, it has. I mean look at the volumes and mortgage have dropped and cars quota have dropped and stuff like that. And that's already in our numbers, and we would expect that to continue that way.

嗯，它有。我的意思是看看數量和抵押貸款已經下降，汽車配額已經下降等等。這已經在我們的數字中，我們希望這種情況會繼續下去。

The last question is coming from the line of Charles Peabody from Portales Partners.

最後一個問題來自 Portales Partners 的 Charles Peabody。

Yes. I'm just curious in your guidance on NII where you kind of implied fourth quarter would be peak run rate. Next year, do you factor in any impact from a possible treasury buyback program, which could redirect liquidity out of the money market system into the banking system, and therefore, keep your deposit betas lower? Do you think about that at all as a possibility?

是的。我只是好奇你對 NII 的指導，你暗示第四季度將是峰值運行率。明年，您是否考慮到可能的國債回購計劃的任何影響，該計劃可能會將流動性從貨幣市場系統轉移到銀行系統，從而降低您的存款貝塔值？你認為這是一種可能性嗎？

Yes. I think -- I don't know if you were listening when I said it before, QT, net issuance in mortgages, net issuance in treasuries globally is going to reduce deposits and create certain forms of volatility and absolutely incorporated that our thinking, including lags, the change in the yield curve, change in spreads and all those things in the numbers we gave you. And that's why we're being trying to be conservative in NII, that while you can annualize the 19 to 76, you have a model, put in 74 and it incorporates all of that.

是的。我認為 - 我不知道您是否在聽我之前所說的，QT、抵押貸款淨發行、全球國債淨發行將減少存款並造成某些形式的波動，並且絕對納入我們的想法，包括滯後，收益率曲線的變化，利差的變化以及我們給你的數字中的所有這些東西。這就是為什麼我們試圖在 NII 中保持保守，雖然你可以將 19 到 76 年化，但你有一個模型，放入 74，它包含了所有這些。

At the moment, there are no further questions on the line.

目前，在線上沒有其他問題。

Well, thank you very much, and we'll talk to you all next quarter.

嗯，非常感謝，我們下個季度再和大家談談。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Thank you. Everyone, that concludes your conference call for today. You may now disconnect. Thank you all for joining, and enjoy the rest of your day.

謝謝你。大家，今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。感謝大家的加入，祝您度過餘下的一天。