摩根大通 (JPM) 2015 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen.

早上好，女士們，先生們。

Welcome to JPMorgan Chase's fourth quarter 2015 earnings call.

歡迎參加摩根大通 2015 年第四季度財報電話會議。

This call is being recorded.

正在錄製此通話。

Your lines will be muted for the duration of the call.

您的線路將在通話期間靜音。

We will now go live to the presentation.

我們現在將進行演示。

Please stand by.

請待命。

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to JPMorgan Chase's Chairman and CEO, Jamie Dimon, and Chief Financial Officer, Marianne Lake.

在這個時候，我想把電話轉給摩根大通的董事長兼首席執行官傑米戴蒙和首席財務官瑪麗安萊克。

Ms. Lake, please go ahead.

萊克女士，請繼續。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Good morning everybody.

大家早上好。

I'm going to take you through the earnings presentation, which is available on our website.

我將帶您了解收益演示文稿，該演示文稿可在我們的網站上找到。

Please refer to the disclaimer regarding forward-looking statements at the back of the presentation.

請參閱演示文稿後面關於前瞻性陳述的免責聲明。

Starting on page 1, the firm reported net income of $5.4 billion, EPS of $1.32, and a return on tangible common equity of 11% on $23.7 billion of revenue.

從第一頁開始，該公司報告的淨收入為 54 億美元，每股收益為 1.32 美元，有形普通股的回報率為 11%，收入為 237 億美元。

Included in the results is legal expense of $400 million after-tax for a range of matters, and we continue to put some issues behind us.

結果中包括一系列事務的 4 億美元稅後法律費用，我們繼續將一些問題拋在腦後。

This is reflected in a reduction of more than $1 billion to our reasonably possible loss estimate this quarter.

這反映在我們本季度合理可能的損失估計減少了超過 10 億美元。

In addition, we recognized the benefit of a settlement reached of $300 million after-tax, which related to moneys owed to Washington Mutual, in connection with a failed savings and loan institution.

此外，我們認識到稅後達成的 3 億美元和解的好處，這與欠華盛頓互惠銀行的款項有關，與一家倒閉的儲蓄和貸款機構有關。

We've shown this on the page as legal related, and the benefits recorded in revenue in Corporate.

我們在頁面上將其顯示為與法律相關，並且收益記錄在 Corporate 中的收入中。

Much like we saw in the third quarter, the overall Company's performance benefited from diversification across our businesses.

就像我們在第三季度看到的那樣，公司的整體業績得益於我們業務的多元化。

We saw strong growth in Consumer drivers, on the back of improvement in the US economy, in large part generating core loan growth of 16% for the Company.

在美國經濟好轉的背景下，我們看到消費者驅動力強勁增長，這在很大程度上為公司帶來了 16% 的核心貸款增長。

Global markets remained challenged across a number of fronts, leading to lower client activity and lower inventory.

全球市場在多個方面仍然面臨挑戰，導致客戶活動減少和庫存減少。

Against this backdrop, the CIB delivered solid performance across products.

在此背景下，CIB 在各產品中均表現穩健。

And in the quarter, we continued our trend of strong balance sheet, capital and expense discipline, and exceeded targets.

在本季度，我們繼續保持強勁的資產負債表、資本和費用紀律，並超過了目標。

Shifting to the full year's results, if you skip over page 2, on page 3, the firm earned record net income of $24.4 billion, and record EPS of $6 a share.

轉到全年業績，如果您跳過第 2 頁，在第 3 頁，該公司的淨收入達到創紀錄的 244 億美元，每股收益達到創紀錄的 6 美元。

And a return on tangible common equity of 13.5% on revenue of nearly $97 billion.

有形普通股的回報率為 13.5%，收入接近 970 億美元。

Revenue was down 1%, or $1.3 billion, driven by non-core items, most notably by business simplification in the Investment Bank, and also in private equity.

收入下降 1%，即 13 億美元，原因是非核心項目，最明顯的是投資銀行業務簡化以及私募股權。

Adjusted, our underlying businesses were up modestly.

調整後，我們的基礎業務小幅增長。

We're very happy with our expense story for the year.

我們對今年的支出情況感到非常滿意。

We delivered adjusted expense of $56 billion, down $2.4 billion, and a 2 percentage point decrease in adjusted overhead ratio.

我們交付了 560 億美元的調整後費用，減少了 24 億美元，調整後的間接費用比率下降了 2 個百分點。

And while we did have a modest benefit from the strengthening dollar this year, we also self funded incremental investments.

儘管我們確實從今年美元走強中獲得了適度的收益，但我們也自籌資金進行增量投資。

Credit performance was strong, in line with our expectations, with net charge-offs at $4.1 billion.

信貸表現強勁，符合我們的預期，淨沖銷額為 41 億美元。

With obviously the biggest area of stress in Wholesale being Oil & Gas, against which we built about $550 million in reserves this year, including $124 million this quarter.

顯然，批發業務面臨的最大壓力領域是石油和天然氣，我們今年為此建立了約 5.5 億美元的儲備，其中包括本季度的 1.24 億美元。

And as the outlook for oil has weakened, we would expect to see some additional reserve built in 2016, but prices would need to remain at this level for an extended period for them to be significant.

隨著石油前景轉弱，我們預計 2016 年將增加一些儲備，但價格需要在較長時間內保持在這一水平才能顯著。

We also built $68 million of reserves in metals and mining, including $35 million this quarter.

我們還在金屬和採礦業建立了 6800 萬美元的儲備，包括本季度的 3500 萬美元。

We're watching this sector closely, and similarly, if commodity prices remain at current levels, we would expect some additional reserve build, but would not expect them to be significant.

我們正在密切關注該行業，同樣，如果大宗商品價格保持在當前水平，我們預計會增加一些儲備，但預計不會顯著。

Finally, net capital distributions for the year were approximately $11 billion, including dividends of $1.72 a share.

最後，當年的淨資本分配約為 110 億美元，包括每股 1.72 美元的股息。

Turning to page 4. Starting on the top left, overall, our average balance sheet is down $100 billion year on year, and our spot balance sheet down over $200 billion, with of course the biggest driver being the reduction of approximately $200 billion of Wholesale nonoperating deposits, ultimately reflected in lower cash balances.

轉到第 4 頁。從左上角開始，總體而言，我們的平均資產負債表同比減少 1000 億美元，我們的現貨資產負債表減少超過 2000 億美元，當然最大的驅動力是批發業務減少約 2000 億美元非經營性存款，最終反映在較低的現金餘額中。

In addition, you can see notable reductions in all other balance sheet categories, except for loans, which reflects the 16% core loan growth we achieved.

此外，您可以看到所有其他資產負債表類別的顯著減少，但貸款除外，這反映了我們實現的 16% 的核心貸款增長。

Some portion of the other Wholesale balance reductions were purposeful and will be sticky, particularly the decrease in short-term Wholesale funding balances.

其他批發餘額減少的某些部分是有目的的，並且會產生粘性，特別是短期批發資金餘額的減少。

The remainder resulted from volatile markets and general deleveraging, driving risk off and lower inventory across products.

其餘的原因是市場動盪和普遍去槓桿化、降低風險和降低產品庫存。

As client demand for leverage grows, we will likely out put some of that balance sheet back to work.

隨著客戶對槓桿需求的增長，我們可能會恢復部分資產負債表的工作。

Moving to the right.

向右移動。

The story on deposits continues to be a very positive one, as we delivered some incremental reductions in nonoperating balances, while consistently growing retail and operating deposits.

關於存款的故事仍然是一個非常積極的故事，因為我們在非經營性餘額方面逐步減少，同時零售和經營性存款持續增長。

On the bottom left, overall NII was up about $300 million, driving a 7 basis point improvement in NIM.

在左下角，整體 NII 增加了約 3 億美元，推動 NIM 提高了 7 個基點。

The increase in NII reflects a mix shift to loans, but also includes gains on certain securities and the impact of the rate move in December on this quarter's NII was not significant.

NII 的增加反映了向貸款的混合轉變，但也包括某些證券的收益，並且 12 月利率變動對本季度 NII 的影響並不顯著。

Looking forward to the first quarter, expect firm NII and NIM to be flat to up slightly on higher rates and mix, substantially offset by the absence of those security gains, as well as normal seasonal day count.

展望第一季度，預計公司 NII 和 NIM 將在較高的利率和組合上持平或小幅上漲，這在很大程度上被缺乏這些安全收益以及正常的季節性天數所抵消。

However, for the full year, with the December rate hike alone, so in a rate flat scenario, together with the loan growth that we have seen and expect, we would expect to deliver about $2 billion of incremental NII.

然而，就全年而言，僅 12 月加息，因此在利率持平的情況下，再加上我們已經看到和預期的貸款增長，我們預計將提供約 20 億美元的增量 NII。

Perhaps the highlight of this page, on the bottom right, is that based upon the actions we've taken throughout the course of 2015, we believe that we have just reached the 3.5% Method 2 G-SIB bucket, and that we are in or close to the 2% Method 1 G-SIB bucket.

也許這個頁面的亮點，在右下角，是基於我們在 2015 年整個過程中採取的行動，我們相信我們剛剛達到了 3.5% 方法 2 G-SIB 桶，並且我們處於或接近 2% 方法 1 G-SIB 桶。

So the task ahead is to solidify this position, which we'll talk more about at Investor Day.

因此，未來的任務是鞏固這一立場，我們將在投資者日更多地討論這一點。

Turning to page 5. We're ending the year well ahead of our capital targets, with the firm's advanced fully phased in CET1 ratio at 11.6%, and our standardized fully phased in ratio at 11.7%.

翻到第 5 頁。今年年底，我們的資本目標遠遠超過了我們的資本目標，該公司的高級 CET1 完全分階段比率為 11.6%，我們的標準化完全分階段比率為 11.7%。

The improvement to both ratios was driven by net capital generation, along with an overall reduction in risk weighted assets.

這兩個比率的改善是由淨資本產生以及風險加權資產的整體減少推動的。

With net loan growth being more than offset by lower market risk, reductions in derivatives, as well as secured financing balances and these deliver a more meaningful reduction under the standardized approach.

由於淨貸款增長被較低的市場風險、衍生品的減少以及有擔保的融資餘額所抵消，而這些在標準化方法下提供了更有意義的減少。

But with reference to my earlier comments on redeploying balance sheet, a portion of this reduction will likely reverse in the near future.

但參考我之前關於重新部署資產負債表的評論，這種減少的一部分可能會在不久的將來逆轉。

Firm and Bank SLR were at 6.5% and 6.6%, respectively.

公司和銀行 SLR 分別為 6.5% 和 6.6%。

Finally, we returned $2.6 billion of net capital to shareholders this quarter, including $1 billion of net repurchases, and common dividends of $0.44 a share.

最後，我們本季度向股東返還了 26 億美元的淨資本，其中包括 10 億美元的淨回購和每股 0.44 美元的普通股息。

Let's turn to page 6, and Consumer and Community banking.

讓我們轉到第 6 頁，以及消費者和社區銀行業務。

The combined Consumer businesses generated $2.4 billion of net income, on revenue of $11.2 billion, and an ROE of 18% for the quarter.

合併後的消費者業務產生了 24 億美元的淨收入，收入為 112 億美元，本季度 ROE 為 18%。

And full-year expense was down by nearly $1 billion, or half of our commitment, if you adjust for legal, and $150 million of incremental investments this year.

如果您根據法律和今年的 1.5 億美元增量投資進行調整，全年費用減少了近 10 億美元，或我們承諾的一半。

Going forward, we will look for opportunities to further reinvest.

展望未來，我們將尋找進一步再投資的機會。

You can see headcount was down by 12,000 for the year, and nearly 43,000 since 2012.

您可以看到，今年員工人數減少了 12,000 人，自 2012 年以來減少了近 43,000 人。

The fundamental business drivers remain strong.

基本業務驅動力依然強勁。

Year over year, average loans were up 11%, with core loans up 25% driven by mortgage, but with strength across products.

與去年同期相比，平均貸款增長了 11%，其中核心貸款增長了 25%，由抵押貸款推動，但各產品均表現強勁。

Average deposits were up 10%.

平均存款增加10%。

We added nearly 600,000 households, and our active mobile customer base continues to grow, up 20%, to roughly 23 million customers, the largest of the major US banks.

我們增加了近 600,000 個家庭，我們的活躍移動客戶群繼續增長 20%，達到大約 2300 萬客戶，是美國主要銀行中最大的。

Moving to page 7, Consumer and Business Banking.

轉到第 7 頁，消費者和商業銀行業務。

CBB generated strong results for the quarter, with net income of $968 million, and an ROE of 32%, on relatively flat revenue of $4.6 billion.

CBB 本季度業績強勁，淨收入為 9.68 億美元，ROE 為 32%，收入相對持平，為 46 億美元。

Although NII was flat quarter on quarter, it was down 5% year on year on spread compression, largely offset by that 10% deposit growth.

儘管 NII 環比持平，但由於價差壓縮同比下降 5%，很大程度上被 10% 的存款增長所抵消。

And excluding an $85 million gain on the sale of a branch, non-interest revenue was down 3% seasonally and up 4% year on year, driven by higher service fees and strong debit volume.

不包括出售分行帶來的 8500 萬美元收益，非利息收入季節性下降 3%，同比增長 4%，這主要是由於服務費上漲和借方數量強勁。

We expect NIR to show normal seasonal declines in the first quarter.

我們預計 NIR 將在第一季度呈現正常的季節性下降。

Expense was down 3% year on year on lower headcount from branch efficiency.

由於分支機構效率降低，費用同比下降 3%。

And additionally, client assets were up 2%, and Business Banking average loan balances up 6%.

此外，客戶資產增長 2%，商業銀行業務平均貸款餘額增長 6%。

Next, Mortgage Banking on page 8. Overall net income was $266 million, originations in the quarter were $23 billion, down seasonally, and we continued to add high-quality loans to our balance sheet, $16 billion for the quarter, and totaling $70 billion for the full year.

接下來是第 8 頁的抵押銀行業務。總淨收入為 2.66 億美元，本季度的原始收入為 230 億美元，季節性下降，我們繼續在資產負債表中增加優質貸款，本季度為 160 億美元，總計 700 億美元全年。

Total revenue of $1.7 billion increased 8% sequentially, on strong loan growth, as well as on higher MSR risk management.

17 億美元的總收入環比增長 8%，這得益於強勁的貸款增長以及更高的 MSR 風險管理。

For the full year, our non-interest revenue was down relative to 2014 by $1.2 billion, broadly in line with our guidance and that downward trend will continue, as servicing balances continue to decline, and as we expect production margins will compress in the smaller market.

全年，我們的非利息收入與 2014 年相比下降了 12 億美元，大致符合我們的指引，並且隨著服務餘額繼續下降，以及我們預計生產利潤率將在較小的市場。

We expect the decline in 2016 to be around $700 million.

我們預計 2016 年的下降幅度約為 7 億美元。

Expense of $1.2 billion ticked up this quarter, related to exiting the OCC's consent order, but it was down 10% year on year, as we continue to manage costs.

本季度與退出 OCC 的同意令有關的費用增加了 12 億美元，但由於我們繼續管理成本，同比下降了 10%。

Finally, on credit, net charge-offs of 13 basis points reflects the quality of our portfolio.

最後，在信貸方面，13 個基點的淨沖銷反映了我們投資組合的質量。

Moving on to page 9, Card, Commerce Solutions and Auto.

轉到第 9 頁，卡片、商務解決方案和汽車。

Overall net income of $1.2 billion, and an ROE of 24%.

整體淨收入12億美元，ROE 24%。

Revenue was $5 billion, up 10% year on year, driven principally by two nonrecurring items.

收入為 50 億美元，同比增長 10%，主要受兩個非經常性項目的推動。

The first was a loss in the prior year of over $200 million that related to non-core portfolio exits, and a gain we saw this quarter of about $160 million, on the IPO of Square.

首先是上一年與非核心投資組合退出相關的超過 2 億美元的損失，而我們在本季度看到 Square 的 IPO 帶來的約 1.6 億美元的收益。

Adjusted the revenue rate was 11.9%.

調整後的收益率為11.9%。

And in terms of core performance, business drivers were strong, and growth offset the impact of co-brand renewals on non-interest revenues, while driving growth in NII.

而在核心業績方面，業務驅動力強勁，增長抵消了聯名更新對非利息收入的影響，同時推動了 NII 的增長。

Year over year, we saw growth of 12% in auto, loan and lease balances, 6% in card sales volumes, 3% in cards core loans, as well as 12% and 14% in merchant processing volumes and transactions, respectively.

與去年同期相比，我們看到汽車、貸款和租賃餘額增長 12%，卡銷售量增長 6%，卡核心貸款增長 3%，商戶處理量和交易量分別增長 12% 和 14%。

Expense of $2.2 billion, flat quarter on quarter, but up 4% year on year, reflected higher depreciation on auto lease growth.

費用為 22 億美元，環比持平，但同比增長 4%，反映出汽車租賃增長的折舊增加。

And we expect expense to be relatively flat into the first quarter, as we continue to invest.

隨著我們繼續投資，我們預計第一季度的費用將相對持平。

While on auto, 2015 set a record for new car sales, with strength in the fourth quarter continuing through December.

在汽車方面，2015 年創造了新車銷售記錄，第四季度的強勁勢頭持續到 12 月。

And we gained nearly 40 basis points of share year over year, with the strength of our manufacturing partnerships driving growth.

我們的份額同比增長了近 40 個基點，我們的製造合作夥伴關係推動了增長。

Finally, on credit, in auto, net charge-offs were 50 basis points, and while higher, they were still below our long-term expectations.

最後，在信貸方面，在汽車方面，淨沖銷為 50 個基點，雖然更高，但仍低於我們的長期預期。

And in cards, the net charge-off rate was 242 basis points for the quarter, 251 for the year.

在信用卡方面，本季度的淨沖銷率為 242 個基點，全年為 251 個。

And given our underwriting discipline, client selection and the improving economy, we expect net charge-offs to stay at these levels in 2016.

鑑於我們的承保紀律、客戶選擇和經濟改善，我們預計 2016 年淨沖銷將保持在這些水平。

Now turning to page 10, and the Corporate & Investment Bank.

現在翻到第 10 頁，以及企業與投資銀行。

CIB reported net income of $1.7 billion, on revenue of $7.1 billion, and an ROE of 10%.

CIB 報告淨收入 17 億美元，收入 71 億美元，ROE 為 10%。

In Investment Banking for the full year, we continued to rank number one in global IB fees, and number one in North America and EMEA.

在全年的投資銀行業務中，我們繼續在全球 IB 費用中排名第一，在北美和 EMEA 中排名第一。

In M&A, we maintained our number two ranking, and grew wallet share by 50 basis points.

在併購方面，我們保持了第二的排名，錢包份額增加了 50 個基點。

In ECM, we ranked number one globally, up from number three last year.

在 ECM 方面，我們從去年的第三位上升到全球第一。

And in DCM, we ranked number one across high yield, high grade and loans.

在 DCM，我們在高收益、高等級和貸款方面排名第一。

Banking revenue for the quarter of $1.5 billion was down 11%, driven by lower debt underwriting fees.

由於債務承銷費下降，本季度銀行業務收入為 15 億美元，下降了 11%。

It was another outstanding performance in advisory fees, up 43% for the quarter, in a market that was down 12, largely driven by North America.

這是諮詢費的另一個出色表現，本季度增長了 43%，而市場下跌了 12%，主要受北美推動。

Equity underwriting fees were down 4% in a market down 12, with the US remaining somewhat slow, but a resurgence of large transactions in Europe and Asia.

股票承銷費在下跌 12 美元的市場中下降了 4%，美國仍然有些緩慢，但歐洲和亞洲的大宗交易重新抬頭。

And debt underwriting fees were down 43% from a record last year, where we saw an unprecedented number of large fee events.

債務承銷費比去年的創紀錄水平下降了 43%，我們看到了前所未有的大量費用事件。

Treasury services revenue was flat quarter on quarter, but down 4% year on year on lower deposit spreads.

財資服務收入環比持平，但由於存款利差下降，同比下降 4%。

In markets, a number of factors contributed to a quiet fourth quarter overall, across products.

在市場上，許多因素促成了第四季度整體產品的平靜。

Investor risk appetite was significantly dampened by a series of market events, and clients retrenched and de-risked early.

一系列市場事件顯著抑制了投資者的風險偏好，客戶提前縮減開支並降低風險。

With that backdrop, the markets businesses delivered $3.6 billion in revenue, in line with our expectations and normal seasonal trends, with adjusted revenues down 16% sequentially and 1% year on year.

在這種背景下，市場業務實現了 36 億美元的收入，符合我們的預期和正常的季節性趨勢，調整後的收入環比下降 16%，同比下降 1%。

In Fixed Income, rates markets were up, given US and ECB monetary policy actions, offset by year-on-year declines in currencies in emerging markets, as the strong dollar and emerging markets uncertainty [things] persisted as well as the Commodities on reduced hedging and declines in credit on all those same things, plus a number of single-name corporate events.

在固定收益方面，鑑於美國和歐洲央行的貨幣政策行動，利率市場上漲，但被新興市場貨幣的同比下跌所抵消，原因是美元走強和新興市場的不確定性 [事物] 持續存在，大宗商品價格下跌在所有這些相同的事情上對沖和信用下降，以及一些單一名稱的公司事件。

Equities delivered solid results, flat excluding the exit of broker dealer services last year, with strong performance in Europe being offset by lower deal flow in North America and Asia, compared to a strong prior year.

股票取得了穩健的業績，不包括去年經紀自營商服務的退出，歐洲的強勁表現被北美和亞洲交易量的減少所抵消，與去年的強勁表現相比。

With respect to the first quarter, reflecting low levels of client activity, we were light risk going into the year end, and inventory was low and so far, our trading businesses are performing well.

就第一季度而言，由於客戶活動水平較低，進入年底的風險較小，庫存較低，到目前為止，我們的貿易業務表現良好。

But as you know, it is early, and it's difficult to predict how the quarter will play out.

但如您所知，現在還為時過早，很難預測本季度將如何發展。

Security services revenue was $933 million, in line with guidance, given the continued impact of lower emerging markets on asset-based fees.

鑑於新興市場降低對基於資產的費用的持續影響，安全服務收入為 9.33 億美元，符合指引。

For the first quarter, expect revenue to be approximately $900 million, which includes seasonality.

第一季度，預計收入約為 9 億美元，其中包括季節性因素。

On credit, we saw a reserve build of $76 million, which included $63 million related to Oil & Gas.

在信貸方面，我們看到了 7600 萬美元的儲備金，其中包括與石油和天然氣相關的 6300 萬美元。

Finally, expense of $4.4 billion was down 20% year on year, mainly driven by lower legal, the comp to revenue ratio was 26% for the quarter, and 30% for the full year.

最後，44 億美元的費用同比下降 20%，主要是由於法律費用下降，本季度的收入比為 26%，全年為 30%。

Moving on to page 11 and the Commercial Bank.

轉到第 11 頁和商業銀行。

The Commercial Bank generated net income of $550 million, on revenue of $1.8 billion, and an ROE of 15%.

商業銀行實現淨利潤 5.5 億美元，收入 18 億美元，ROE 為 15%。

Revenue was up sequentially, but relatively flat year on year, with NII up 3% on higher loan balances, despite spread compression, offset by lower IB revenue from a strong quarter last year.

收入環比增長，但同比相對持平，儘管利差有所壓縮，但由於貸款餘額增加，NII 增長了 3%，但被去年強勁季度的 IB 收入下降所抵消。

However, for the full year, it was a record for Investment Banking, with gross revenue of $2.2 billion, up 10% from 2014.

然而，就全年而言，這是投資銀行業務的創紀錄，總收入為 22 億美元，比 2014 年增長 10%。

Expense of $750 million included $50 million of impairment on leased Corporate aircraft.

7.5 億美元的費用包括 5,000 萬美元的租賃公務機減值。

On the reassessment of residual values, the remaining balance sheet value of this portfolio is modest.

在重新評估剩餘價值時，該投資組合的剩餘資產負債表價值適中。

We saw record average loan balances of $166 billion, up 14% year on year, with growth in Commercial Real Estate of 17% exceeding the industry, as we continue to invest in this business and gain share.

我們看到創紀錄的平均貸款餘額為 1660 億美元，同比增長 14%，其中商業房地產的增長超過行業 17%，因為我們繼續投資該業務並獲得份額。

In C&I, loans were up 11%, largely driven by Corporate client banking on the back of several large transactions.

在工商業領域，貸款增長了 11%，主要是由於幾筆大宗交易的支持下的企業客戶銀行業務。

Finally, credit performance of the portfolio does remain strong, with only 4 basis points of net charge-offs.

最後，投資組合的信貸表現依然強勁，淨沖銷僅 4 個基點。

However, we did add $100 million to reserves, $60 million of which relates to Oil & Gas and $26 million for Metals & Mining.

但是，我們確實增加了 1 億美元的儲量，其中 6000 萬美元與石油和天然氣有關，2600 萬美元與金屬和礦業有關。

Moving on to page 12, Asset Management.

轉到第 12 頁，資產管理。

Asset Management reported net income of $500 million, with a 27% pretax margin and 21% ROE, on revenue of $3 billion, down 5% year on year, driven by lower performance fees in alternatives.

資產管理公司報告淨收入為 5 億美元，稅前利潤率為 27%，ROE 為 21%，收入為 30 億美元，同比下降 5%，主要受替代品業績費下降的推動。

Expense of $2.2 billion was also down 5% year on year, roughly equally explained by lower performance fee-driven compensation, as well as a benefit from refining the value of the health of that asset.

22 億美元的費用也同比下降了 5%，這大致可以解釋為較低的績效費用驅動薪酬，以及提煉該資產健康價值的好處。

Assets under management of $1.7 trillion, and client assets of $2.4 trillion, were down 1% and 2% year over year, respectively.

管理資產為 1.7 萬億美元，客戶資產為 2.4 萬億美元，同比分別下降 1% 和 2%。

We saw mixed flows in the fourth quarter, resulting in long-term net outflows of $9 billion, with solid inflows in equities being more than offset by weakness in Fixed Income and the loss of select mandates.

我們在第四季度看到了混合流動，導致 90 億美元的長期淨流出，固定收益的疲軟和部分授權的損失遠遠抵消了股票的穩健流入。

However, we had strong long-term investment performance, with 80% of mutual fund AUM ranked in the first or second quartiles over five years, which should be supportive of future flows And for the full year, we had positive long-term inflows of $16 billion.

然而，我們的長期投資表現強勁，五年內 80% 的共同基金資產管理規模位於第一或第二四分位，這應該會支持未來的資金流入。全年，我們的長期資金流入為正160億美元。

In lending, we had record balances of $110 billion, up 7% year on year, driven by both mortgage, as well as traditional loans.

在貸款方面，在抵押貸款和傳統貸款的推動下，我們的餘額達到創紀錄的 1100 億美元，同比增長 7%。

Turning to page 13 and Corporate.

翻到第 13 頁和公司。

Treasury and CIO reported net income of $138 million for the quarter.

財政部和首席信息官報告本季度淨收入為 1.38 億美元。

Included in this result, there is a pretax benefit of $178 million, relating to certain securities held at a discount, that were called at par.

該結果包括 1.78 億美元的稅前收益，與以折價持有的某些證券有關，這些證券按面值贖回。

And this was in our NII.

這是在我們的 NII 中。

Other Corporate net income of $84 million included a net benefit of $60 million after-tax, for the legal related matters we discussed earlier, as well as a contribution to our foundation this quarter of $150 million pretax.

其他 8400 萬美元的公司淨收入包括稅後淨收益 6000 萬美元，用於我們之前討論的法律相關事宜，以及本季度對我們基金會的 1.5 億美元稅前捐款。

Turning to page 14.

翻到第 14 頁。

I've given you some guidance throughout the presentation, and this page is for your reference.

我在整個演示過程中為您提供了一些指導，此頁面供您參考。

Obviously, when we get to Investor Day, we will give you a comprehensive outlook for each of our businesses for the year.

顯然，當我們到達投資者日時，我們將為您提供一年中我們每項業務的全面展望。

So in summary, a solid quarter, and a record for the full year, both in terms of net income and EPS, which even on higher capital, translates to a good return on tangible common equity of 13.5%.

因此，總而言之，一個穩健的季度和全年的記錄，無論是在淨收入和每股收益方面，即使在更高的資本下，也轉化為 13.5% 的有形普通股的良好回報。

We exceeded our targets on expense management, generating positive operating leverage and improving our adjusted overhead ratio by 2 percentage points.

我們超出了費用管理目標，產生了積極的經營槓桿，並將調整後的間接費用率提高了 2 個百分點。

Delivered strong core loan growth of 16%, materially changed the mix of our deposit base, including growing retail deposits at 10%, and made meaningful progress on our balance sheet, our G-SIB surcharge, and capital levels.

實現了 16% 的強勁核心貸款增長，極大地改變了我們的存款基礎組合，包括將零售存款增長 10%，並在我們的資產負債表、G-SIB 附加費和資本水平方面取得了有意義的進展。

With that, operator, we'll take Q&A.

有了這個，接線員，我們將進行問答。

Your first question comes from the line of Brennan Hawken with UBS.

你的第一個問題來自瑞銀的布倫南霍肯。

Good morning, Marianne.

早上好，瑪麗安。

Good morning.

早上好。

So, curious about whether or not you all have seen the stress we've seen in some of the credit and equity markets, and some of the volatility impacting M&A velocity appetite, amongst Boards and C-suites, broadly, in your conversations and throughout the IB?

所以，好奇你們是否都看到了我們在一些信貸和股票市場中看到的壓力，以及影響併購速度偏好的一些波動性，廣泛地，在你們的談話中和整個過程中國際文憑組織？

So, again, I would say that the pipeline coming into 2016 in M&A was good, solid, up, in fact.

所以，我想說的是，進入 2016 年的併購渠道實際上是好的、穩固的、向上的。

Obviously, volatility can dampen the confidence of Boards and CEOs.

顯然，波動會削弱董事會和首席執行官的信心。

Dialogues are pretty active, and we think the types of deals that we'll see in 2016 will look different.

對話非常活躍，我們認為我們將在 2016 年看到的交易類型會有所不同。

But I think, in the first couple of weeks, it's not been particularly strong, and we do need to see some of the stability come back, I think, for us to really see that conversion start to pick up.

但我認為，在前幾週，它並不是特別強勁，我們確實需要看到一些穩定性恢復，我認為，我們才能真正看到轉換開始回升。

And just by different, is that a reference to size, or can you be a bit more specific on what you mean?

只是不同的是，這是對尺寸的參考，還是您可以更具體地說明您的意思？

Yes, less mega-deals, more mid-sized deals, more cross border.

是的，更少的大型交易，更多的中型交易，更多的跨境交易。

It's a little different.

這有點不同。

Actually, more deal count, less big mega-deals, could be very constructive for revenue, but we're likely to see it be a little bit different in 2016.

實際上，更多的交易數量，更少的大型交易，可能對收入非常有建設性，但我們可能會在 2016 年看到它有點不同。

But honestly, the pipeline is good, and -- yes.

但老實說，管道很好，而且——是的。

Okay.

好的。

(multiple speakers) That's helpful.

（多位發言者）這很有幫助。

North America will be a tough comp.

北美將是一場艱難的比賽。

It was very strong in 2015, but Europe could be very constructive.

2015 年非常強勁，但歐洲可能非常具有建設性。

Terrific.

了不起。

Helpful.

有幫助。

And then, you referenced energy prices staying this low would lead to a significant reserve build, you expect, in your energy book.

然後，您提到能源價格保持在如此低的水平會導致您的能源書中的大量儲備增加。

Can you maybe give a little bit more color around that?

你可以給它更多的顏色嗎？

How would you define significant?

你如何定義顯著？

And how long would oil need to stay down here, in order to see some of that reserve action?

為了看到一些儲備行動，石油需要在這裡停留多長時間？

Yes.

是的。

So, the way we do our reserves, just for context, because I think it's important is, obviously the oil price outlook is important and instructive.

所以，我們做儲備的方式，只是為了上下文，因為我認為這很重要，顯然油價前景很重要且具有啟發性。

And it's very clearly going to drive how we think about probabilities of default and loss, given [default for] certain of our customers.

考慮到我們某些客戶的[違約]，這很明顯會推動我們對違約和損失概率的看法。

But I think it's also the case, just for context, to know that it is very name-by-name specific.

但我認為情況也是如此，只是為了上下文，要知道它是非常具體的名稱。

Specific conditions at clients matter greatly.

客戶的具體情況非常重要。

And so when we do these estimates, they are directionally correct, and order of magnitude correct.

因此，當我們進行這些估計時，它們在方向上是正確的，並且數量級是正確的。

But that's just for context.

但這只是為了上下文。

Oil -- we said last quarter, if oil reached $30 a barrel, and here we are, and stayed there for, call it, 18 months, you could expect to see reserve builds of up to $750 million.

石油——我們在上個季度說過，如果石油達到每桶 30 美元，而我們在這裡，並在那里呆了 18 個月，你可以期望看到高達 7.5 億美元的儲備增加。

And that assessment hasn't fundamentally changed.

這種評估並沒有從根本上改變。

So, it is not the current market expectation that oil will flatline.

因此，目前的市場預期並非油價將持平。

It is the expectation, right now, that there will be a modest recovery.

現在，人們期望會有適度的複蘇。

Based upon that, we would expect to take some additional reserves, but for them to be more modest, less significant.

基於此，我們預計會採取一些額外的儲備，但要更適度，不那麼重要。

But that's the range; if oil's at $30 and stays here for a long time, up to $750 million.

但這就是范圍；如果石油價格為 30 美元並在此停留很長時間，最高可達 7.5 億美元。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Mayo with CLSA.

您的下一個問題來自 CLSA 的 Mike Mayo。

Hi.

你好。

I wanted to follow up on the Oil & Gas question.

我想跟進石油和天然氣問題。

It just seems as though $124 million in additional provisions for Oil & Gas could be low, at least based on the one-year forward prices for oil, which are still in the $30s.

似乎石油和天然氣的 1.24 億美元額外準備金可能很低，至少基於仍處於 30 美元左右的一年期石油遠期價格。

And so, my question is for Jamie.

所以，我的問題是給傑米的。

As you look back, how does the Oil & Gas situation today compare to prior periods of stress?

回顧過去，今天的石油和天然氣形勢與之前的壓力時期相比如何？

We have 2002; we had the TMT meltdown.

我們有2002；我們經歷了 TMT 崩潰。

When you were at Bank One, you reduced the lines of credit.

當你在第一銀行時，你減少了信貸額度。

You got ahead of that early.

你早早地領先了。

In 2007, you weren't exactly at the start, but then you adjusted and you said -- hey, this is a big issue.

在 2007 年，你並不是剛開始，但後來你調整了，你說——嘿，這是個大問題。

And now we have Oil & Gas, which could be another industry-specific stress, and you're only taking additional provisions of $124 million.

現在我們有石油和天然氣，這可能是另一個行業特有的壓力，你只需要額外準備 1.24 億美元。

Is that going to be enough?

這樣就夠了嗎？

And one year from now, are you going to look back and say -- whoops, we didn't get ahead of this enough.

一年後，您是否會回頭說- 哎呀，我們在這方面做得還不夠。

I think, first, I'd say we try to be very conservative, always, and so we're not trying to put up as little as possible.

我認為，首先，我會說我們總是嘗試非常保守，因此我們不會嘗試盡可能少地忍受。

You know me, I'd put up more if I could.

你了解我，如果可以的話，我會付出更多。

But accounting rules dictate what you can do.

但是會計規則決定了你能做什麼。

And these are baskets of -- the real risk is in producing wells, cash flows are down.

這些都是一籃子——真正的風險在於生產井，現金流量下降。

Surprisingly, the cost of getting the oil out of the ground has also dropped dramatically, and probably much more than most of us would have expected.

令人驚訝的是，從地下開採石油的成本也大幅下降，而且可能遠遠超出我們大多數人的預期。

So, you take these producing wells, you take the cash flow, you discount it at 8% or 9%, you lend against it.

所以，你拿這些生產井，你拿現金流，你貼現 8% 或 9%，然後藉錢。

And so these are our forecasts.

所以這些是我們的預測。

And our energy book isn't that large, relative to JPMorgan Chase.

相對於摩根大通，我們的能源書籍並沒有那麼大。

We're not worried about the big oil companies.

我們並不擔心大型石油公司。

These are mostly the smaller ones that you're talking about these reserve increases on.

這些大多是你所說的這些儲備增加的較小的。

I also think, Mike, just --

我也認為，邁克，只是——

And the forward curve is -- the end of the year, for 2016, I think is more like [$41] or [$42], or something like that.

遠期曲線是 - 今年年底，對於 2016 年，我認為更像 [41 美元] 或 [42 美元]，或類似的東西。

Yes, it's [$48].

是的，它是 [48 美元]。

So, hey, Mike, the other thing to know about the profile of reserves -- three things.

所以，嘿，邁克，關於儲備概況的另一件事——三件事。

The first is, it's not linear.

首先是，它不是線性的。

So, just the oil price decline, and the decline in the forward curve that we saw into December and to the end of the year, that's the impact it had on our reserves.

因此，只是油價下跌，以及我們在 12 月和年底看到的遠期曲線下降，這就是它對我們的儲備的影響。

It's fallen significantly in the first two quarters.

前兩個季度大幅下降。

That was not a knowable condition, and we can't reserve for that at the end of the year.

那不是一個可知的條件，我們不能在年底保留它。

That's why we said we would expect to take some more reserve increases in the next couple of quarters.

這就是為什麼我們說我們預計在接下來的幾個季度會增加一些準備金。

But again, it's a name-specific thing.

但同樣，這是一個特定於名稱的東西。

And lots of other conditions at clients matter, including their hedging, their cash flows, the level of security, all those things.

客戶的許多其他條件也很重要，包括對沖、現金流、安全水平等等。

And how do you use CDS to help protect yourself on that portfolio?

您如何使用 CDS 來幫助保護自己的投資組合？

We don't.

我們沒有。

Okay, you don't.

好吧，你沒有。

And then, the last follow-up: Do you intend to keep lending to the Oil & Gas companies, as they run into problems?

然後，最後一個跟進：當石油和天然氣公司遇到問題時，您是否打算繼續向它們提供貸款？

On the one hand, you have the risk of throwing good money after bad.

一方面，您有將好錢扔到壞錢之後的風險。

On the other hand, if you stop lending as much, and you have the high-yield market retreating, and you have private equity firms retreating, maybe it becomes a liquidity crisis for some of the oil companies.

另一方面，如果你停止放貸，高收益市場撤退，私募股權公司撤退，可能會成為一些石油公司的流動性危機。

So, which is it?

那麼，它是什麼？

Do you lend more or less to the Oil & Gas sector?

您是否向石油和天然氣行業提供更多或更少的貸款？

First of all, the oil folks have been surprisingly resilient.

首先，石油人的韌性出人意料。

And remember, these are asset-backed loans, so a bankruptcy doesn't necessarily mean your loan is bad.

請記住，這些是資產支持貸款，因此破產並不一定意味著您的貸款不好。

So, you have to be a little bit careful in -- and it's also, Mike, a philosophical thing.

所以，你必須要小心一點——邁克，這也是一個哲學問題。

A bank is supposed to be there for clients in good times and bad times.

銀行應該在順境和逆境時為客戶服務。

So, it's not a trading market, where you try to support clients.

所以，這不是一個交易市場，你試圖支持客戶。

So, to the extent we can responsibly support clients, we're going to.

因此，在我們可以負責任地支持客戶的範圍內，我們會這樣做。

And if we lose a little bit more money because of it, so be it.

如果我們因此而損失更多的錢，那就這樣吧。

And we've done that around the world.

我們已經在世界各地這樣做了。

We did it in 2007 and 2008 and 2009.

我們在 2007 年、2008 年和 2009 年做到了。

We try to do it responsibly.

我們試圖負責任地做到這一點。

If banks just completely pull out of markets every time something gets volatile and scary, you'll be sinking companies left and right.

如果每次出現波動和可怕的情況時銀行就完全退出市場，那麼您將左右沉沒公司。

Your next question comes from the line of John McDonald with [Stewart] Bernstein.

您的下一個問題來自 John McDonald 和 [Stewart] Bernstein。

Hi, good morning.

早上好。

Marianne, was wondering if you could remind us where you are on your expense reduction targets in the Consumer and the Investment Bank?

Marianne，想知道您是否可以提醒我們您在消費者和投資銀行的開支削減目標方面處於什麼位置？

And how does that translate to some thoughts about the expected trajectory of total Firm-wide expenses for this year?

這如何轉化為對今年全公司總支出的預期軌蹟的一些想法？

Yes, so, let me just deal with where we are against our targets.

是的，所以，讓我來談談我們對目標的反對。

So, the most notable targets were $2 billion in the Consumer businesses in 2017 versus 2014, and $2.8 billion in the CIB in 2017 versus 2014.

因此，最值得注意的目標是 2017 年與 2014 年相比，消費者業務達到 20 億美元，2017 年與 2014 年相比，CIB 達到 28 億美元。

You probably heard my comment, but to clarify, on an apples-to-apples basis, we're halfway through on Consumer.

您可能聽到了我的評論，但為了澄清，在蘋果對蘋果的基礎上，我們在消費者方面已經完成了一半。

We've done $1 billion this year.

今年我們已經完成了 10 億美元。

You don't see that 100% translate into the results, partly because of legal expense, which is not something that we particularly can predict, and hopefully won't be there forever.

你看不到 100% 轉化為結果，部分原因是法律費用，這不是我們特別可以預測的，希望不會永遠存在。

Also, because we intentionally decisioned in 2015, in the fourth quarter in particular, or mostly, to increase our investments in the Consumer businesses by $150 million.

此外，因為我們在 2015 年有意決定，特別是在第四季度，或者大部分時間，將我們對消費者業務的投資增加 1.5 億美元。

So, we've achieved the $1 billion.

所以，我們已經實現了 10 億美元。

We chose to reinvest a portion of it.

我們選擇將其中的一部分進行再投資。

Another $1 billion we're on track for.

我們正在爭取另外 10 億美元。

We will potentially reinvest some of that, too.

我們也可能會再投資其中的一部分。

And Gordon and we will talk to you about the basis for that at Investor Day.

戈登和我們將在投資者日與您討論其基礎。

On the $2.8 billion in the CIB, we're $1.3 billion through at the end of the year.

在 CIB 的 28 億美元中，到今年年底我們是 13 億美元。

And we talked before about the fact that the first $1.3 billion is largely on business simplification.

我們之前談到過，前 13 億美元主要用於業務簡化。

We've had the revenue decline.

我們的收入下降了。

We need to have the expense decline, and we've worked hard to deliver that, and we have.

我們需要降低費用，我們已經努力實現這一目標，而且我們做到了。

The next chunk is to do with technology and operations and infrastructure and organization, and it's harder.

下一部分與技術、運營、基礎設施和組織有關，而且難度更大。

And so, we will continue with them on track to deliver it, but it's going to be a job through 2016 and into 2017.

因此，我們將繼續與他們一起按計劃交付，但這將在 2016 年和 2017 年成為一項工作。

And how does that all net in to an outlook for this year, if you're willing to give us some thoughts on that?

如果您願意就此給我們一些想法，那麼這一切對今年的前景有何影響？

Yes, I can give you some thoughts that won't totally satisfy you, which is our core expenses will continue to trend down, on the back of delivering against them.

是的，我可以給你一些不能完全滿足你的想法，這是我們的核心開支將繼續呈下降趨勢，在交付反對他們的背後。

But we will make investment decisions that we think are good for the Company, accretive for shareholders, that will re-spend some of that money.

但我們會做出我們認為對公司有利、對股東有利的投資決策，這將重新花費部分資金。

And so we'll give you that shrink and grow at Investor Day.

因此，我們將在投資者日為您提供收縮和增長。

Your next question comes from the line of Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

您的下一個問題來自 Ken Usdin 與 Jefferies 的對話。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Good morning.

早上好。

I was wondering if you could talk to us a little bit about the benefits from rates, as they come through?

我想知道您是否可以與我們談談費率帶來的好處，因為它們通過了？

Obviously, your commentary that NII will be even flattish in the first quarter, adjusted for day count, and even with some securities gains in the numbers this quarter, presumes a nice helper from that first move.

顯然，你關於 NII 在第一季度甚至會持平的評論，根據天數進行了調整，即使本季度的數字有一些證券收益，假設這是第一步的好幫手。

And you guys were really conservative on your deposit beta thoughts, when you talked about them previously.

當你們之前談到它們時，你們對存款測試的想法非常保守。

I know, probably you haven't seen much change yet.

我知道，可能你還沒有看到太大的變化。

But how are you expecting the deposit behavior to act?

但是，您希望存款行為如何發揮作用？

And has there been any change to your modeling expectations about what might come through, as we get through the first couple of hikes?

當我們完成前幾次徒步旅行時，您對可能發生的事情的建模期望是否有任何變化？

So, just on NII, yes, we are seeing, embedded in that NII, flat to up slightly.

所以，就在 NII 上，是的，我們看到，嵌入到 NII 中，從平到小幅上升。

We are seeing a nice lift associated with the rate hike in December across businesses, as well as the continued benefit of the mix towards loans in our balance sheet.

我們看到與 12 月各企業加息相關的良好提升，以及組合對我們資產負債表中貸款的持續收益。

But we were flatted in our NII this quarter by $178 million on securities gains in CIO.

但是，由於首席信息官的證券收益，我們本季度的 NII 持平了 1.78 億美元。

So, that's going to mean the comparison is challenging, and then day count is obviously seasonal.

所以，這意味著比較具有挑戰性，然後天數顯然是季節性的。

So, that's the dynamic.

所以，這就是動態。

We are seeing the rate benefit.

我們看到了利率收益。

We do expect to see it, as I said in my remarks, for the full year.

正如我在講話中所說，我們確實希望全年都能看到它。

Look, we think we are appropriately conservative on deposit [beta's].

看，我們認為我們在存款β方面是適當保守的。

It is not -- it is way too early to have any idea.

不是——現在有任何想法還為時過早。

There's -- virtually nothing has moved yet.

有——幾乎什麼都沒有動過。

And so, our job, and what we are doing, is paying very close attention to the competitive landscape.

因此，我們的工作以及我們正在做的事情都非常關注競爭格局。

These deposits that we're talking about, that have the high beta's, are valuable deposits with valuable clients for us, and we want to be competitive and pay fair rates.

我們正在談論的這些存款具有高貝塔值，對我們來說是有價值的客戶的寶貴存款，我們希望具有競爭力並支付公平的利率。

But it's so early in the movie that we haven't changed much in our modeling assumptions.

但在電影中太早了，我們的建模假設沒有太大變化。

Okay.

好的。

And my second question -- if I can ask an ex-energy credit question?

我的第二個問題——如果我可以問一個前能源信貸問題？

A lot of concerns are that we're going to get into some type of broader deterioration, of which your numbers showed no signs of heading towards.

很多擔憂是，我們將陷入某種更廣泛的惡化，而你們的數字沒有顯示出走向的跡象。

What are you looking for?

你在找什麼？

Are you seeing any signals of ex-energy changes in either delinquencies or watch trends?

您是否在拖欠或觀察趨勢中看到任何前能源變化的信號？

And are you still comfortable with that low [4%s] type of charge-off expectation that you guys had talked about previously?

你是否仍然對你們之前談到的那種低 [4%s] 類型的沖銷期望感到滿意？

Thanks.

謝謝。

So, energy, Metals & Mining, we're watching very closely, industries that could have knock-on effects like industrials and transportation.

因此，我們正在密切關注能源、金屬和採礦業，這些行業可能會產生連鎖反應，例如工業和運輸業。

But we're not seeing anything broadly, in our portfolio, right now.

但我們現在在我們的投資組合中沒有看到任何廣泛的東西。

We're just watching very closely, which is why -- now, obviously, you can take our reserve build number, and you can say it's almost substantially all made up of Oil & Gas and Metals & Mining.

我們只是在密切關注，這就是為什麼 - 現在，很明顯，您可以獲取我們的儲備構建編號，您可以說它幾乎全部由石油和天然氣以及金屬和採礦組成。

And behind the scenes, we've had upgrades and downgrades of a number of other different companies, across sectors, but nothing particularly thematic yet.

在幕後，我們對許多其他不同的公司進行了升級和降級，跨行業，但還沒有什麼特別的主題。

But we're watching.

但我們正在觀察。

I would just point our that Credit Card, Commercial Bank, middle market, large corporate credit is as good as it's ever been.

我只想指出我們的信用卡、商業銀行、中間市場、大型企業信貸和以往一樣好。

So obviously, it's going to get a little bit worse.

所以很明顯，情況會變得更糟。

I wouldn't call it a cycle, per se.

就其本身而言，我不會稱其為循環。

If you have a recession, yes, you will see a normal cyclical increase in all those losses.

如果你有經濟衰退，是的，你會看到所有這些損失的正常週期性增加。

We're not forecasting a recession.

我們沒有預測經濟衰退。

We think that the US economy looks pretty good at this point.

我們認為美國經濟在這一點上看起來相當不錯。

Your next question --

你的下一個問題——

Based on that, with the obvious caveat of what happens with oil prices and energy over the course of the near future, yes, we would still expect our charge-offs to be relatively low.

基於此，在不久的將來油價和能源會發生什麼明顯的警告，是的，我們仍然預計我們的沖銷會相對較低。

Your next question comes from the line of Glenn Schorr with ISI.

您的下一個問題來自 ISI 的 Glenn Schorr。

Hi, thank you.

嗨，謝謝你。

So, I think you talked about some of this, Marianne, in terms of the Method 2 G-SIB surcharge now estimated at 3.5%.

所以，瑪麗安，我想你談到了其中一些，方法 2 G-SIB 附加費現在估計為 3.5%。

I'm just curious -- I think, if the numbers are right, you took down notionals, and that there's booked $3.4 trillion, $21 billion in level 3 assets, $50 billion in non-op deposits.

我只是好奇——我認為，如果數字是正確的，你就記下了名義上的資產，有 3.4 萬億美元、210 億美元的 3 級資產、500 億美元的非運營存款。

You've said that you don't want to be an outlier, so you're whittling that down.

你說過你不想成為一個異常值，所以你正在減少它。

I'm curious of the driving force behind it.

我很好奇它背後的驅動力。

What kind of revenue give-up there is, in such a move like this, because we like it.

在這樣的舉動中，有什麼樣的收入放棄，因為我們喜歡它。

And thoughts on the go-forward?

以及對前進的想法？

Yes, so, look, we talked about achieving 4% last quarter, I think; and for disclosure, we were quite close to 3.5%.

是的，所以，聽著，我認為我們談到了上個季度實現 4% 的目標；對於披露，我們非常接近 3.5%。

At that point, it becomes increasingly compelling to want to look at the margin, for what you could do to get within the bucket.

在這一點上，想要查看邊距變得越來越有說服力，你可以做些什麼來獲得收益。

And so that is what we did in the fourth quarter, is spend time really focusing on getting to that achievable boundary, which we thought at that point it was.

這就是我們在第四季度所做的，就是花時間真正專注於達到那個可實現的邊界，我們當時認為是這樣。

And remember, it's not nothing, in the year, that we started the year thinking we would exit $100 billion of non-operating deposits.

請記住，在這一年裡，我們開始認為我們將退出 1000 億美元的非經營性存款並不是什麼都沒有。

And while there still could be some volatility in that number, of course, we've almost doubled that -- or doubled that, in fact.

當然，雖然這個數字仍然可能存在一些波動，但我們幾乎已經翻了一番——或者實際上翻了一番。

So, we got some wind to our backs in doing it.

所以，我們在做這件事時遇到了一些風吹草動。

It's also the case that, when you get the entire Business and Company attuned to the sense of urgency and desire to want to be increasingly efficient in this way, that, at the margin, in a 100 different things, little benefits accrue.

同樣的情況是，當你讓整個企業和公司都適應緊迫感和希望以這種方式提高效率的願望時，在 100 種不同的事情上，幾乎沒有什麼好處。

So, look, we're at about 3.5% -- we're just inside the 3.5% bucket, as best we estimate it.

所以，看，我們大約是 3.5% - 我們只是在 3.5% 的桶內，正如我們估計的那樣。

It's not as much important whether we're basis points or surcharge points below or above.

我們是低於還是高於基點或附加費點並不重要。

It's much more what we do now to get safely in the bucket.

我們現在所做的更多是為了安全地進入桶中。

And that's going to still take work.

這仍然需要工作。

So that's why -- we'll obviously talk to you more about this at Investor Day.

所以這就是為什麼 - 我們顯然會在投資者日與你更多地討論這個問題。

In terms of the give-up, from an economics perspective, we wouldn't have done it at any cost.

就放棄而言，從經濟學的角度來看，我們不會不惜一切代價做到這一點。

We have done it because we think it is important to do, because we think it's going to be constructive for the Company, and because the revenue give-ups were not significant.

我們這樣做是因為我們認為這樣做很重要，因為我們認為這將對公司具有建設性，並且因為收入放棄並不重要。

But they weren't zero, either.

但它們也不為零。

But to be able to reduce a constraint that is, in one way or another, likely to bind us -- or in multiple ways, in fact, likely to bind us, it was a, I think, very good trade.

但是，為了能夠減少可能以某種方式約束我們的約束——或者實際上以多種方式約束我們，我認為這是一筆非常好的交易。

It was done, effectively, client by client.

它是由客戶有效地完成的。

Yes.

是的。

To make sure we were trying to do the right things for our clients; not just jamming our balance sheet down and hurting people.

確保我們努力為客戶做正確的事情；不只是堵塞我們的資產負債表並傷害人們。

Fair enough.

很公平。

I just have one quick follow-up, on Ken's last question: If two-thirds of the economy is consumer-led, you look at all your early-stage delinquencies, like Ken said.

關於肯的最後一個問題，我只是快速跟進一下：如果三分之二的經濟是由消費者主導的，那麼就像肯所說的那樣，你要看看你所有的早期拖欠情況。

And, Jamie, to your comments, things look okay.

而且，傑米，對於你的評論，事情看起來還不錯。

I hate putting words in your mouth, but what do you think the disconnect, then, is, between what's going on in the markets versus what's going on in the trends in your Business, both in terms of growth and forward-looking credit looks?

我討厭把話放在你的嘴裡，但是你認為市場正在發生的事情與你的業務趨勢發生的事情之間的脫節是什麼，無論是在增長還是前瞻性信貸方面？

The US economy has been chugging along at 2% to 2.5% growth for the better part of five years now.

五年來的大部分時間裡，美國經濟一直在以 2% 到 2.5% 的速度增長。

In the last two years, it has created 5 million jobs.

在過去的兩年裡，它創造了 500 萬個工作崗位。

If you look at the actual household formation -- car sales, wage, people working -- it still looks okay.

如果你看看實際的家庭構成——汽車銷售、工資、工作人員——看起來還是不錯的。

Corporate credit is quite good.

企業信用相當好。

Small business formation -- it's not back to where it was, but it's quite good.

小型企業的形成——它沒有回到原來的位置，但它非常好。

Household formation's going up.

家庭形成正在上升。

So obviously, market turmoil, we all look at it every day.

所以很明顯，市場動盪，我們每天都在看。

But I'm not sure most of the 143 million Americans look at it that much, who have jobs; and you have a big change in the world out there.

但我不確定 1.43 億美國人中的大多數有工作的人是否會看那麼多。你的世界發生了很大的變化。

People are getting adjusted to China slowing down.

人們正在適應中國的放緩。

When you have commodity prices go down like that, there are big winners and losers.

當大宗商品價格如此下跌時，就會有大贏家和輸家。

The oil companies are the losers; consumer is a benefit.

石油公司是輸家；消費者是一種利益。

Brazil gets hurt.

巴西受傷了。

India benefits.

印度受益。

South Korea benefits.

韓國受益。

Japan benefits.

日本受益。

And those cause troubling waters.

而這些會引起麻煩。

And hopefully, this will all settle down, and it's not the beginning of something really bad.

希望這一切都會平息下來，這並不是真正糟糕的開始。

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Foran with Autonomous.

您的下一個問題來自 Brian Foran 的 Autonomous。

Hi.

你好。

The disclosure around the Oil & Gas is really helpful.

圍繞石油和天然氣的披露確實很有幫助。

And I was wondering if you could just walk through something similar on Metals & Mining?

我想知道您是否可以在 Metals & Mining 上瀏覽類似的內容？

So, you gave us the -- I think you said $68 million of full-year reserve build, and you gave us the not-significant, if things stay where they are.

所以，你給了我們——我想你說的是 6800 萬美元的全年儲備金，如果事情保持原狀，你給了我們一個不重要的東西。

Can you give us the balance?

你能給我們餘額嗎？

And then, is there a comparable $500 million to $750 million stress test for Oil & Gas, or stress case?

然後，是否有類似的 5 億至 7.5 億美元的石油和天然氣壓力測試或壓力案例？

Is there a comparable -- what is the stress case, if broader Commodities, and Metals & Mining, comes in worse?

有沒有可比的——如果更廣泛的大宗商品、金屬和礦業出現更糟的情況，壓力情況是什麼？

Okay.

好的。

So our total reserves, on balance sheet, for Metals & Mining, or notwithstanding we built $60 million-odd this year, is over $200 million.

因此，我們在資產負債表上的金屬與礦業總儲備，或者儘管我們今年建造了超過 6000 萬美元，但仍超過 2 億美元。

So the coverage ratio is pretty good.

所以覆蓋率還是不錯的。

The exposure is about -- I haven't got the precise numbers in front of me.

曝光是關於——我面前沒有確切的數字。

They're [about] a third the size of our exposure to Oil & Gas, so about 2% of our overall wholesale credit exposure; so, considerably more modest.

它們[大約] 是我們對石油和天然氣敞口的三分之一，因此約占我們整體批發信貸敞口的 2%；所以，要謙虛得多。

Which is why, if energy prices and general commodities weakness and stress stayed where it is right now, even for an extended period, we would think that the incremental reserves would be considerably more modest.

這就是為什麼，如果能源價格和一般商品的疲軟和壓力保持在現在的水平，即使在很長一段時間內，我們也會認為增量儲備會相當溫和。

And it's also -- that one is mostly name by name.

而且它也是 - 一個主要是按名字命名的。

Yes, for sure.

是肯定的。

It's not big asset-based reserves.

這不是基於資產的大儲備。

It's just -- they're big corporate credits, name by name.

只是 - 他們是大公司的信用，名字的名字。

And for both Oil & Gas and Metals & Mining in our portfolio, Oil & Gas is close to 60% investment grade, and Metals & Mining about half.

對於我們投資組合中的石油與天然氣和金屬與礦業，石油與天然氣的投資級別接近 60%，金屬與礦業約佔一半。

And then on -- I guess staying with credit -- on home equities and the whole issue of free cash from interest [home-made] amortizing, can you lay out how it's progressed, relative to your expectations so far?

然後 - 我想繼續信貸 - 關於家庭股票和整個問題的自由現金利息[自製]攤銷，你能說明它是如何進展的，相對於你迄今為止的預期？

And also remind us how big the allocation of the reserve is against that?

並提醒我們準備金的分配有多大？

And I guess, not to lead the witness, but is that an area where things are trending, early days, better than expected, and could provide some buffer against, maybe, anything else that happens on the C&I side?

而且我想，不是為了引導見證，而是在這個領域，早期的事情趨勢，比預期的要好，並且可以提供一些緩衝，也許，在 C&I 方面發生的任何其他事情？

Yes, so, with respect to home equity [re-class], remember, the majority of the problematic home equity underwriting was 2005 through 2008.

是的，所以，關於房屋淨值 [重新分類]，請記住，大多數有問題的房屋淨值承銷是 2005 年到 2008 年。

So here we are, at the beginning of 2016, with [pig filling the python].

所以我們在這裡，在 2016 年初，[豬填滿了蟒蛇]。

But we're monitoring it closely, and we have some re-class that have happened.

但是我們正在密切關注它，並且我們已經發生了一些重新分類。

Obviously, interest rates are low.

顯然，利率很低。

Home price appreciation, on the other hand, is your friend.

另一方面，房價升值是你的朋友。

So there are puts and takes.

所以有put和take。

We've been monitoring it, I would say, at the margin, or more than at the margin, at the early stages, coming in better than we had modeled.

我想說，我們一直在監控它，在早期階段，或者比邊緣更多，比我們建模的要好。

And remember, from an incurred loss perspective, we would consider these re-class risks to be largely incurred, so we've tried to reserve them, to the best of our ability.

請記住，從已發生損失的角度來看，我們會認為這些重新分類風險在很大程度上是已發生的，因此我們已盡力保留它們，盡我們所能。

So we feel good about our reserve.

所以我們對我們的儲備感覺很好。

I don't think we've disclosed them.

我不認為我們已經披露了它們。

But so far, from a performance perspective, I would say slightly better than our models.

但到目前為止，從性能的角度來看，我會說比我們的模型略好。

But we continue to monitor it, because it's still relatively early.

但我們會繼續監控它，因為它還比較早。

Your next question comes from the line of Betsy Graseck with Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。

Hi, good morning.

早上好。

Good morning.

早上好。

Marianne, I know that the Basel Committee put our their fundamental review of the trading book proposal this morning.

瑪麗安，我知道巴塞爾委員會今天上午對交易賬簿提案進行了基本審查。

So, clearly, no one's had time to really go through it in detail.

因此，顯然，沒有人有時間真正詳細地了解它。

However, I'm sure you have already gone through the prior proposals, and done the QIS for the last couple of years.

但是，我相信您已經完成了之前的建議，並在過去幾年中完成了 QIS。

The proposal is better than what had been -- the ruling is better than what the proposal -- the most recent one had been.

該提案比以前的要好——裁決比最近的提案要好。

Just wanted to get a sense from you, as to how you can manage to this 2019 implementation time frame?

只是想從您那裡了解一下，您如何才能應對 2019 年的實施時間框架？

Are there things set in motion already?

事情已經開始了嗎？

Or is this something that you would start from here?

還是您將從這裡開始？

And if you could just give us some broad strokes on how you think about overall impact, that would be helpful.

如果你能就你如何看待整體影響給我們一些粗略的介紹，那將很有幫助。

So obviously, you'll forgive me because we've been on calls since it came out.

所以很明顯，你會原諒我的，因為自從它出來以來我們一直在通話。

But, yes, we have been working on this for years.

但是，是的，我們多年來一直在努力。

The problem with this particular rule is that, as you stated, based upon the four QIS's that were done, there were some, I would characterize, significant challenges, with respect to the rules as written.

這條特定規則的問題在於，正如您所說，基於已完成的四個 QIS，對於所編寫的規則，我認為存在一些重大挑戰。

And we were expecting there to be a number of meaningful changes, and there have been; in many cases, meaningful improvements.

我們期待會有一些有意義的變化，而且已經發生了；在許多情況下，有意義的改進。

But it's very technical, and there's been a lot of changes, so we need to sift through it to figure out, net-net everything.

但它非常技術性，並且發生了很多變化，因此我們需要對其進行篩選以弄清楚，net-net一切。

Although it is clear that net-net, despite the fact of the stated intention of the committee wasn't necessary to increase market risk capital across the industry, it will be higher.

雖然很明顯，儘管委員會的明確意圖不是增加整個行業的市場風險資本，但它會更高。

But by how much, it's really going to need to be sifted through.

但是有多少，真的需要篩選。

And for that same reason -- for both those same reasons, I'm sorry -- for the reason that the rule has not been stable and there have been significant questions, many of which have been either addressed or partially addressed, and many, I guess, that have not, it would have been premature to have taken any actions in advance of figuring out where this has landed.

出於同樣的原因 - 出於同樣的原因，我很抱歉 - 因為規則不穩定並且存在重大問題，其中許多問題已得到解決或部分解決，而且許多，我想，那還沒有，在弄清楚它落在哪里之前採取任何行動還為時過早。

And, as you know, the period to comply is three years.

而且，如您所知，遵守期限為三年。

So it's more of a start from here, to figure out how to manage with this, after we've sifted through the details.

因此，在我們篩選了細節之後，更多地從這裡開始，弄清楚如何處理這個問題。

So, I wish I were able to give you a little bit more of a detailed answer, but we're going to need to take the time to go through it.

所以，我希望我能給你一個更詳細的答案，但我們需要花時間來完成它。

Right, I totally understand that.

是的，我完全明白這一點。

And I guess my basic question is: There's -- you can take action, as opposed to just deal with what the current decision would be for you.

我想我的基本問題是：你可以採取行動，而不是僅僅處理當前的決定對你來說是什麼。

There are actions that you can take to reduce the impact?

您可以採取哪些措施來減少影響？

There are always actions that we can take to reduce the impact.

我們總是可以採取一些行動來減少影響。

And so, we have to think about them in the context of our overall capital optimization program.

因此，我們必須在我們的整體資本優化計劃的背景下考慮它們。

And, again, if there are -- if some of the things that we hoped -- and I -- honestly, I've been on calls since it came out.

而且，再一次，如果有 - 如果我們希望的一些事情 - 我 - 老實說，自從它出來以來，我一直在接聽電話。

So, if some of the things that we hoped were going to be addressed have not, they could have had, or may have, meaningful impact on specific types of activity.

因此，如果我們希望解決的一些問題沒有解決，它們可能會對特定類型的活動產生或可能產生有意義的影響。

And we will have to react accordingly.

我們將不得不做出相應的反應。

And, yes, we will take actions, if that's the right answer.

而且，是的，如果這是正確的答案，我們將採取行動。

I wish I could give you more details, but we just need to go through it.

我希望我能給你更多的細節，但我們只需要經歷它。

Our next question comes from the line of Steve Chubak with Nomura.

我們的下一個問題來自野村的 Steve Chubak。

Good morning.

早上好。

Good morning.

早上好。

I had a couple of questions on capital.

我有幾個關於資本的問題。

The first relates to the RWA progress, which did surprise positively in the year, by about $50 billion ahead of expectations.

第一個與風險加權資產的進展有關，這一進展在今年確實令人驚訝，比預期高出約 500 億美元。

And I was just hoping you can give a better sense, Marianne, just given some of your prepared remarks, as to how much of that incremental $50 billion reduction was a function of more proactive mitigation efforts?

我只是希望你能更好地理解，瑪麗安，剛剛給出了你準備好的一些評論，關於 500 億美元的增量削減中有多少是更積極的緩解努力的結果？

Maybe even tied to the G-SIB mitigation efforts that you guys had talked about, which should presumably remain in the run rate, versus balance sheet shrinkage that may be due to the risk loss environment that we're experiencing today?

甚至可能與你們談到的 G-SIB 緩解努力有關，這可能應該保持在運行速度，而資產負債表收縮可能是由於我們今天正在經歷的風險損失環境？

Yes, so, I would say that, based upon our fourth-quarter balance sheet, given that market risk was a driver, given that balance sheet levels was a driver, particularly on standardized, we could give back, on standardized, as much as 10 to 20 bps of capital, of the 10.7% capital accretion.

是的，所以，我想說的是，根據我們第四季度的資產負債表，鑑於市場風險是一個驅動因素，鑑於資產負債表水平是一個驅動因素，特別是在標準化方面，我們可以在標準化方面給予盡可能多的回報10.7% 的資本增值中的 10 至 20 個基點。

But the bigger point, on the RWA outlook, is that we expect to be bound, over the medium term, by standardized.

但就 RWA 前景而言，更大的一點是，我們預計在中期內將受到標準化的約束。

And standardized is going to always have a neutral to upwards pressure, as we continue to grow these high-quality loans.

隨著我們繼續增加這些高質量的貸款，標準化將始終對上行壓力保持中性。

So, even though the RWA, being at the $1.5 trillion-ish sooner than we expected, is obviously good news.

因此，即使 RWA 比我們預期的要早達到 1.5 萬億美元，這顯然是個好消息。

Regardless of how much of that may, in the short term, revert, our job is going to be to continue to become more efficient, to try and keep it there, just given the natural upward pressure of the standardized calculations.

不管這在短期內有多少可能恢復，我們的工作將是繼續變得更有效率，盡量保持它在那裡，只是考慮到標準化計算的自然上行壓力。

We can become more efficient in advance, but we're unlikely to be bound by it in the medium term.

我們可以提前變得更有效率，但我們不太可能在中期受到它的約束。

So, that's what we're focused on.

所以，這就是我們所關注的。

So, I wouldn't take the $1.5 trillion, and read through that we'll be continuing to decline from here on standardized.

所以，我不會接受這 1.5 萬億美元，並仔細閱讀我們將繼續從這裡標準化的下降。

We'll be continuing to work hard to make sure that we can grow those loans that we love, but that have (inaudible) [risk weights] under a standardized basis.

我們將繼續努力確保我們可以增加那些我們喜歡的貸款，但這些貸款在標準化的基礎上具有（聽不清）[風險權重]。

Understood, Marianne.

明白了，瑪麗安。

That's very helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then, maybe just switching gears to the G-SIB surcharge, clearly the progress surprised positively, getting down to that 3.5%.

然後，也許只是將齒輪轉向 G-SIB 附加費，顯然進展令人驚訝，降至 3.5%。

I was just wondering how you guys are thinking about establishing minimum capital targets?

我只是想知道你們是如何考慮建立最低資本目標的？

I recognize you'll likely lay that out at Investor Day.

我知道你很可能會在投資者日闡述這一點。

Just want to get a better sense as to what methodology are you employing, in terms of thinking about a management buffer?

只是想更好地了解您在考慮管理緩衝區方面採用了什麼方法？

And all the different binding constraints that you have to manage to day-to-day?

以及您每天必須管理的所有不同的約束條件？

And thinking about through-the-cycle target that you guys would like to manage to?

並考慮你們想要實現的整個週期目標？

Okay.

好的。

If I miss something at the end, remind me.

如果我最後錯過了什麼，請提醒我。

In terms of how we think about buffers, just really conceptually, the Firm manages, and the Board has set for the Firm, a risk appetite.

就我們如何看待緩衝而言，從概念上講，公司管理著，董事會也為公司設定了風險偏好。

That risk appetite has a number of features, and capital depletion in a stressed environment is one of them.

這種風險偏好具有許多特徵，壓力環境下的資本枯竭就是其中之一。

And so, when we think about setting buffers, we think about it just broadly in the context of allowing ourselves enough room to absorb losses that are within our risk appetite, and not have to take premature actions, from a capital perspective.

因此，當我們考慮設置緩衝時，我們只是在允許自己有足夠的空間來吸收我們風險偏好範圍內的損失的背景下廣泛地考慮它，而不必從資本的角度採取過早的行動。

So -- but having said that, our buffer has been pretty consistent, at the 50-basis-point level, for a reasonable period of time.

所以 - 但話雖如此，我們的緩沖在合理的一段時間內一直保持在 50 個基點的水平。

And we'll update you on all of that at Investor Day.

我們將在投資者日向您介紹所有這些信息。

With respect to our targets, it's a little bit more complicated than minimum regulatory capital, because as you say, we're bound, potentially, by multiple constraints, and one of them may be CCAR.

關於我們的目標，它比最低監管資本要復雜一些，因為正如你所說，我們可能受到多重約束，其中之一可能是 CCAR。

Plus -- it is CCAR, I should say.

另外——我應該說它是 CCAR。

Because as you know, the first two quarters of this year, our capital distribution plans have already been approved.

因為大家知道，今年前兩個季度，我們的資金分配方案已經獲批。

And we haven't done CCAR, so this is not any kind of prediction, but it wouldn't surprise you to know that it's unlikely that we will pay out 100% of our earnings in CCAR, going forward.

而且我們還沒有做過 CCAR，所以這不是任何類型的預測，但你知道我們不太可能在 CCAR 中支付 100% 的收益，這不會讓你感到驚訝。

So, we are on a path to continue to accrete capital, though we would like to move up in our pay-out range.

因此，我們正在繼續增加資本，儘管我們希望提高我們的支付範圍。

So, given that we're still moving towards our 12% target, and we will update you if any of that changes at Investor Day.

因此，鑑於我們仍在朝著 12% 的目標邁進，如果有任何變化，我們將在投資者日通知您。

We're also, as you know, potentially going to understand whether or not the Fed changes any of the CCAR parameters, and whether that has an impact.

如您所知，我們也可能會了解美聯儲是否會更改任何 CCAR 參數，以及這是否會產生影響。

So, at the moment, the best we know is that we're going to continue to accrete capital, albeit more slowly, as we hope to move up in the pay-out range, but we haven't done CCAR yet.

因此，目前，我們所知道的最好的是，我們將繼續增加資本，儘管速度會更慢，因為我們希望在支付範圍內上升，但我們還沒有完成 CCAR。

And that's if the rules don't change.

如果規則不改變的話。

So, 12% it is for now.

所以，現在是 12%。

Your next question comes from the line of Eric Wasserstrom with Guggenheim Securities.

您的下一個問題來自古根海姆證券公司的 Eric Wasserstrom。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Marianne, if I could just clarify your NII comment from the very beginning of the call, do I understand correctly that the $2 billion of incremental NII that you've cited is just a function of the repricing dynamics, as they move through your balance sheet, rather -- or is there also, I guess, a contribution from loan growth?

瑪麗安，如果我能從電話一開始就澄清你的 NII 評論，我是否正確理解你所引用的 20 億美元增量 NII 只是重新定價動態的函數，因為它們在你的資產負債表中移動，而是——或者，我猜，是否也有來自貸款增長的貢獻？

It's both.

兩者都是。

So, think about -- in a [rate-sat] scenario, when you can pick whether you believe the market -- whether you think the market is -- or whether you believe the [FONC docs].

所以，想一想——在 [rate-sat] 情景中，你何時可以選擇你是否相信市場——你是否認為市場是——或者你是否相信 [FONC 文檔]。

And I think it's going to be data dependent, so we're not going to have a stated opinion on that.

我認為這將取決於數據，所以我們不會對此發表意見。

But because of the mix in our balance sheet in 2015, as well as our expectation of continued loan growth, we would expect mix to contribute about half of that.

但由於我們 2015 年資產負債表的組合，以及我們對貸款持續增長的預期，我們預計組合將貢獻其中的一半左右。

And defer 25 basis points about the next half because we are more sensitive to the front end of rates in the first 25 basis points.

並在下半年推遲 25 個基點，因為我們對前 25 個基點的利率前端更為敏感。

And you can see that in our earnings and risk disclosures.

您可以在我們的收益和風險披露中看到這一點。

So -- even if we see nothing else.

所以——即使我們什麼也沒看到。

Now, obviously, we believe, and the market believes that you're going to see a couple more hikes.

現在，顯然，我們相信，市場相信你會看到更多的加息。

That would be, on average, another 25 basis points, and that would be incremental NII again.

平均而言，這將是另外 25 個基點，這將再次增加 NII。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

And so, I know we just touched on RWAs, but how do you suggest we think about GAAP assets for this year?

所以，我知道我們剛剛談到了風險加權資產，但你建議我們如何看待今年的 GAAP 資產？

I would say I would think about them in a somewhat similar directional way, given that our balance sheet ended below $2.4 trillion, a little bit of it market delivered, a lot of it purposeful.

我想說我會以某種類似的方向來考慮它們，因為我們的資產負債表最終低於 2.4 萬億美元，其中一部分是市場交付的，大部分是有目的的。

But we do intend to continue to gather deposits and extend loans, and while you're -- and portfolio loans, as well.

但我們確實打算繼續收集存款並延長貸款，當你還在的時候——以及組合貸款，也是如此。

So, while you will see some securities balances decline and the like, I would say again, net modest growth, but modest, and very lending driven.

因此，雖然您會看到一些證券餘額下降等情況，但我要再說一遍，淨增長適度，但適度且非常受貸款驅動。

Your next question comes from the line of Jim Mitchell with Buckingham Research.

您的下一個問題來自白金漢研究所的 Jim Mitchell。

Good morning.

早上好。

I just wanted to -- I had a follow-up question on Fixed Income trading.

我只是想——我有一個關於固定收益交易的後續問題。

I think Dan Pinto has talked about benefits from higher rates.

我認為丹平托談到了更高利率的好處。

And so, I guess number one, I wanted to see if you had any thoughts on that?

所以，我猜第一，我想看看你對此有什麼想法嗎？

Have you seen any initial benefits to spreads in the FICC trading market, with the first rate hike?

首次加息後，您是否看到 FICC 交易市場的點差有任何初步好處？

And in contrast, you've had a couple of competitors announce -- or at least it's reported -- that they're cutting headcount.

相比之下，你有幾個競爭對手宣布 - 或者至少據報導 - 他們正在裁員。

That seems to be a little bit in contrast to the expectation that Fixed Income could pick up with higher rates.

這似乎與固定收益可能以更高的利率回升的預期形成了一些對比。

So, if you could talk through your thoughts on Fixed Income?

那麼，您能否談談您對固定收益的看法？

I do notice that you did mention 1Q is off to performing well, so maybe that's part of it, too.

我確實注意到您確實提到 1Q 表現不錯，所以也許這也是其中的一部分。

But if you could help on that, that would be great.

但如果你能在這方面提供幫助，那就太好了。

Okay.

好的。

So, in terms of the impact of rates, obviously there was a lot of monetary policy confusion.

因此，就利率的影響而言，顯然存在很多貨幣政策混亂。

Broadly, in the fourth quarter, the ECB underwhelmed the Fed, was (inaudible).

從廣義上講，在第四季度，歐洲央行的表現不如美聯儲，是（聽不清）。

So there was a lot of confusion.

所以有很多困惑。

But by the time the rate hike happened, it was obviously pretty well understood.

但到加息發生時，顯然已經很好理解了。

We did see strong activity, or strong client activity, relatively speaking, on the back of that in the rates business, more so than necessarily about spreads.

相對而言，在利率業務的背後，我們確實看到了強勁的活動或強勁的客戶活動，而不是點差。

With respect to the Fixed Income business, we've always been very disciplined about how we think about the staffing levels and the expenses in that business.

關於固定收益業務，我們一直非常嚴格地看待我們如何看待該業務的人員配備水平和費用。

We've managed it very carefully.

我們已經非常小心地管理它。

The compensation has come down across the trading businesses, and it wouldn't surprise you that some of that -- a lot of that has been in Fixed Income.

貿易業務的薪酬已經下降，其中一些——其中很多是固定收益，你不會感到驚訝。

And our business is at scale and productive.

我們的業務規模龐大且富有成效。

So --

所以 -

All right.

好的。

So, you still feel pretty comfortable with your outlook that things could improve, and market share gain potential, as competitors pull back?

那麼，隨著競爭對手的撤退，您仍然對自己的前景感到非常滿意，即情況可能會有所改善，並且市場份額會增加潛力？

You've seen, in Fixed Income -- we have a very good Fixed Income operation globally, around the world.

您已經看到，在固定收益領域——我們在全球範圍內擁有非常出色的固定收益業務。

Rates themselves don't filter through FICC trading directly.

費率本身不會直接通過 FICC 交易進行過濾。

I think what Danny was talking about is, if you have healthy economies and confident investors, you have more volume in things like that.

我認為丹尼所說的是，如果您擁有健康的經濟和自信的投資者，那麼您在此類事情上的交易量就會更大。

We do see a little bit of repricing taking place, in prime broker, repo, conduit, and some of those things run through FICC.

我們確實看到在主要經紀人、回購、管道中發生了一些重新定價，其中一些事情通過 FICC 運行。

So, that is going to take place as the world adjusts to all the new capital requirements.

因此，隨著世界適應所有新的資本要求，這將發生。

And obviously, there's a lot of seasonality in the business, which we've experienced for the last decade.

顯然，我們在過去十年中經歷了很多業務的季節性。

Your next question comes from the line of Erika Najarian with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

您的下一個問題來自美銀美林的 Erika Najarian。

Hi, good morning.

早上好。

My questions have been asked and answered.

我的問題已被提出並得到回答。

Thanks, Erika.

謝謝，埃里卡。

Your next question comes from the line of Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank.

您的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Matt O'Connor。

Hi.

你好。

If we look at credit spreads in the bond market, even ex-energy, they've widened considerably.

如果我們看一下債券市場的信用利差，甚至不包括能源，它們已經大大擴大了。

And I'm wondering if this has resulted in wholesale credit being repriced at all?

我想知道這是否導致批發信貸被重新定價？

I realize the bond market doesn't set bank loan pricing, but just wondering if you've been able to reprice some of the wholesale customers, or expect being able to do so?

我意識到債券市場不會設定銀行貸款定價，但只是想知道您是否能夠重新定價一些批發客戶，或者期望能夠這樣做？

No, we've seen no real repricing in loans on the balance sheet.

不，我們沒有看到資產負債表上的貸款真正重新定價。

You have seen a little bit of -- people are getting other revenues to make up for their credit exposure.

你已經看到了一點——人們正在獲得其他收入來彌補他們的信用風險。

Yes.

是的。

Think about the bank loans as being relationship loans that need to be in the context of [broader] relationship, and everybody is competing for them.

將銀行貸款視為需要在[更廣泛]關係背景下的關係貸款，每個人都在爭奪它們。

They barely repriced in 2008 and 2009.

他們在 2008 年和 2009 年幾乎沒有重新定價。

Banks were continuing to lend at the existing price.

銀行繼續以現有價格放貸。

But that was because they -- these were long-term relationships.

但那是因為他們——這些是長期的關係。

The bank loan market does not reprice like the markets do.

銀行貸款市場不會像市場那樣重新定價。

I guess I wonder why.

我想我想知道為什麼。

We saw pricing in the debt markets come in considerably over the last several years.

在過去幾年中，我們看到債務市場的定價大幅上漲。

C&I pricing came in.

C&I 定價出現了。

I realize it might take some time.

我意識到這可能需要一些時間。

But I would think there's the opportunity for at least some repricing around the edges; no?

但我認為至少有機會在邊緣重新定價。不？

We haven't seen it.

我們還沒有看到。

Also, it's very, very competitive.

此外，它非常非常有競爭力。

Everybody has been chasing these loans, and so that's a factor, too.

每個人都在追逐這些貸款，所以這也是一個因素。

So, we haven't seen it yet.

所以，我們還沒有看到。

And then, if you -- the number in middle market lending, if I remember correctly, if you look at it by client, 60% of the revenues are not loan related.

然後，如果你——中間市場貸款的數量，如果我沒記錯的話，如果你按客戶來看的話，60% 的收入與貸款無關。

So, clients -- they also know what their relationship is to the bank.

所以，客戶——他們也知道他們與銀行的關係。

And while we need to make a good return on capital, the capital applied to the client is only partially loan related.

雖然我們需要獲得良好的資本回報，但應用於客戶的資本只是部分與貸款相關。

And that capital, on its own, doesn't earn an adequate return.

而這些資本本身並不能獲得足夠的回報。

Simple lending, on its own, is generally not an adequate return business.

簡單的貸款本身通常不是一個足夠的回報業務。

Your next question comes from the line of Gerard Cassidy with RBC.

您的下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Gerard Cassidy。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Good morning.

早上好。

Jamie, to follow up on your comments about maybe some better pricing in prime brokerage and repo because of the capital requirements, or requiring you guys to raise prices, can you expand upon that?

傑米，為了跟進你關於可能由於資本要求而在大宗經紀和回購中定價更好的評論，或者要求你們提高價格，你能擴展一下嗎？

Do you see it growing, where you could get even better pricing going forward, because of less competition?

您是否看到它在增長，因為競爭減少，您可以在未來獲得更好的定價？

Can you give just more color there?

你能在那裡多點顏色嗎？

I think the better way to look at it is that people seem, in certain of our businesses -- and I mentioned those, and there are some other ones -- capital has been deployed, people have adjusted to the new rules, and you've seen pricing go up.

我認為更好的看待它的方式是人們似乎在我們的某些業務中——我提到了那些，還有一些其他的——資本已經部署，人們已經適應了新規則，而你已經看到價格上漲了。

Whether it goes up a lot -- I wouldn't count on it going up a lot more from there.

它是否會上漲很多-我不會指望它從那裡上漲很多。

The markets are going to be competitive at that point.

屆時市場將具有競爭力。

But use of balance sheet, the cost has gone up; not loans, but most of the other stuff.

但是使用資產負債表，成本就上去了；不是貸款，而是大多數其他東西。

And remember, we think about our prime brokerage business going hand in glove with equity.

請記住，我們認為我們的大宗經紀業務與股權密切相關。

That's correct.

這是正確的。

And so, while the repricing is helpful, and does -- at the margin, everybody is going to continue to always observe their pricing.

因此，雖然重新定價是有幫助的，而且確實 - 在邊際上，每個人都將繼續始終觀察他們的定價。

We've built our platform internationally; Europe, we are seeing strong demand for our [synthetic pull-outs].

我們已經在國際上建立了我們的平台；歐洲，我們看到對我們的 [合成拉拔] 的強勁需求。

In Asia, we're adding clients -- we've got the wind to our backs.

在亞洲，我們正在增加客戶——我們有風吹草動。

So, it's an important business to our clients.

因此，這對我們的客戶來說是一項重要的業務。

You're right, there are some other people, potentially, not going to be as aggressive.

你是對的，還有其他一些人，可能不會那麼咄咄逼人。

And if we can take share, we certainly will.

如果我們可以分享，我們當然會。

Great.

偉大的。

And then the follow-up question is: Obviously, the FASB is coming out this quarter with the new loan loss reserve methodology -- the current expected credit loss versus what we're using today -- obviously, the incurred loss model.

然後接下來的問題是：顯然，FASB 本季度將推出新的貸款損失準備金方法——當前預期信用損失與我們今天使用的方法——顯然，發生損失模型。

There's going to be a true-up for everybody.

每個人都會有一個真實的。

Have you guys given any thought that, when this goes into place, when you may take that true-up?

你們有沒有想過，當它到位時，你什麼時候可以接受這個事實？

Assuming they say you have to implement it by 2019, or something like that, would you do it much before that, or can you give us some thoughts on your thinking about what's going to happen?

假設他們說你必須在 2019 年之前實施它，或者類似的事情，你會在那之前做很多嗎，或者你能給我們一些關於你對將會發生什麼的想法的想法嗎？

Obviously, we expect any transition adjustment to go through equity.

顯然，我們預計任何過渡調整都將通過股權進行。

If we are able to adopt it early, we might do that.

如果我們能夠及早採用它，我們可能會這樣做。

I'm not aware that we are.

我不知道我們是。

But I could be wrong about that.

但我可能錯了。

Your last question comes from the line of Paul Miller with FBR Capital Markets.

您的最後一個問題來自 FBR Capital Markets 的 Paul Miller。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝你。

We know that you implemented a new disclosure form in the Mortgage Banking space tread.

我們知道您在抵押銀行業務領域實施了新的披露表格。

Did that have any -- you guys had very good Mortgage Banking results.

那有沒有——你們的抵押銀行業績非常好。

Did that have any impact whatsoever on your operations in the Mortgage Bank?

這對您在抵押銀行的業務有任何影響嗎？

So, yes, obviously, it was -- I think if you add up [cleared plus] other servicing rules, print them out, put them on the floor and stand them next to me, they're a foot taller.

所以，是的，很明顯，它是——我認為如果你把[清除加]其他服務規則加起來，打印出來，把它們放在地板上，站在我旁邊，它們會高一英尺。

So they are very complicated.

所以它們非常複雜。

There's a lot of operational complexity to complying, and we're working very hard at doing that.

合規有很多操作複雜性，我們正在努力做到這一點。

I will say, in the quarter, we did -- as part of being cautious about making sure that we're complying, our cycle times were a couple days -- a few days worsened.

我會說，在本季度，我們確實 - 作為謹慎確保我們遵守的一部分，我們的周期時間是幾天 - 幾天惡化了。

And so, volumes, our origination volumes, are a little lower than we would have otherwise seen; not a lot.

因此，數量，我們的原始數量，比我們原本看到的要低一點；不是很多。

And that's just timing, and it's just days.

這只是時間，只是幾天。

But not really from a financial results perspective, because of the way we recognize the revenue.

但從財務結果的角度來看並非如此，因為我們確認收入的方式。

So, I would call it a little bit of teething problems -- across the industry, by the way, not just us -- nothing significant.

所以，我會稱之為一些初期的問題——順便說一句，整個行業，不僅僅是我們——沒什麼大不了的。

We are going to get the work finished, and so it's tough, but it is what it is.

我們要完成工作，所以這很艱難，但就是這樣。

And then a follow-up question on your portfolio: You look like you grew your residential loans by about $11 billion.

然後是關於你的投資組合的後續問題：你看起來你的住宅貸款增加了大約 110 億美元。

Last quarter, you said it was a mix between agency and jumbo.

上個季度，你說這是代理和巨型的混合體。

If a big chunk of it's agency, can you give us your thoughts on portfolio of that agency product?

如果它的很大一部分是代理，您能告訴我們您對該代理產品組合的看法嗎？

Yes, so, it's about 60% jumbo, 40% agency or conventional conforming, and it's a better execution decision.

是的，所以，它大約是 60% 的巨型、40% 的代理或傳統合規，這是一個更好的執行決策。

So, when we look at the better economics between selling or portfolio-ing the mortgage, we'll generally choose the better economics.

因此，當我們在出售或組合抵押貸款之間考慮更好的經濟性時，我們通常會選擇更好的經濟性。

But we also prefer the annuity nature of the NII -- the lower servicing risk, and the better capital efficiency.

但我們也更喜歡 NII 的年金性質——服務風險更低，資本效率更高。

So, it has been the case, over the course of the last several quarters, that it has been the best execution to portfolio these mortgages.

因此，在過去幾個季度中，將這些抵押貸款組合起來是最好的執行方式。

And actually, they are generating a nice return on equity.

實際上，他們正在產生可觀的股本回報率。

And you do have a follow-up question from John McDonald with Sanford Bernstein.

你確實有一個來自約翰麥克唐納和桑福德伯恩斯坦的後續問題。

One quick follow-up, Marianne: You've had some pretty big tax gains the last couple quarters, running below 30% of your tax rate.

一個快速的跟進，瑪麗安：在過去的幾個季度裡，你有一些相當大的稅收收益，低於你稅率的 30%。

At some point, do you pull forward future benefits, and run with a higher tax rate in the future?

在某個時候，您是否會推進未來的福利，並在未來以更高的稅率運行？

So we have had pretty big tax gains over the course of the last -- most notably, obviously, last quarter, over the course of the last couple of years.

因此，在過去的幾年中，我們獲得了相當大的稅收收益——最明顯的是，上個季度，在過去幾年的過程中。

Most of those related to the, call it, 2003 through 2008 tax periods, when we were going through the financial crisis.

大多數與我們正在經歷金融危機的 2003 年至 2008 年稅收期有關。

And so, some of the matters were more complex, and we took appropriate reserving decisions on that.

因此，有些事情更加複雜，我們對此做出了適當的保留決定。

There are many less of those very complicated matters ahead of us, and so we wouldn't expect to see the same sort of size of tax benefits going forward as we've seen in the past.

擺在我們面前的那些非常複雜的事情要少得多，因此我們不會期望看到與過去一樣規模的稅收優惠。

But we had some this quarter.

但是本季度我們有一些。

So, we'll have a few.

所以，我們會有一些。

And generally speaking, they are, because of the nature of the reserving for tax, generally speaking, we take a conservative approach and the bias to the positive.

而且一般來說，他們是，由於稅收準備金的性質，一般來說，我們採取保守的態度和偏向積極的態度。

But it could be much more plus or minus zero, at this point.

但在這一點上，它可能會更多地正負零。

So, what's your natural tax rate, if you don't have those?

那麼，如果你沒有這些，你的自然稅率是多少？

Is it around 30%?

是30%左右嗎？

Or is it closer to --

還是更接近——

30%.

30%。

Thanks.

謝謝。

You have another follow-up question from the line of Brian Foran with Autonomous.

你有另一個來自自治的 Brian Foran 的後續問題。

Hi, Brian.

嗨，布賴恩。

I was wondering if I could just sneak in on credit cards.

我想知道我是否可以偷偷刷信用卡。

Do you think the competitive environment has hit a plateau?

您認為競爭環境是否已達到平台期？

And on co-brands, are there any large upcoming repricing events?

在聯合品牌方面，是否有任何即將舉行的大型重新定價活動？

And is there any bigger than a bread box size you can give on [Marriott]?

在 [萬豪] 上，您可以提供比麵包盒更大的東西嗎？

So, do I think it's plateaued?

那麼，我認為它是平穩的嗎？

I think it remains incredibly competitive in card generally, in particular in the co-brand space.

我認為它總體上在卡片方面仍然具有令人難以置信的競爭力，特別是在聯合品牌領域。

So, plateaued at a very competitive level, I suppose.

所以，我想，在一個非常有競爭力的水平上處於穩定狀態。

But in terms of -- I'm not going to talk about any specific names, actually, Brian, in terms of the potential for repricing.

但就重新定價的潛力而言，我不會談論任何具體的名字，實際上，Brian。

It's an important part of our Business, and we're going to defend our Business.

這是我們業務的重要組成部分，我們將捍衛我們的業務。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝你。

Your next question is a follow-up question from Gerard Cassidy with RBC.

您的下一個問題是來自 RBC 的 Gerard Cassidy 的後續問題。

Hi, Gerard.

嗨，杰拉德。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Hi, Marianne.

嗨，瑪麗安。

If the regulators lift the dividend pay-out ratio in this year's CCAR to 40%, would you guys consider lifting your dividend pay-out ratio something closer to that?

如果監管機構將今年CCAR的派息率提高到40%，你們會考慮把你的派息率提高到更接近這個水平嗎？

It's a Board decision, and so, neither have we received that guidance from the regulators, nor have we done CCAR, and had that discussion yet with the Board.

這是董事會的決定，因此，我們既沒有收到監管機構的指導，也沒有做過 CCAR，也沒有與董事會進行過討論。

But we have generally said that the Board likes to have the flexibility to increase dividends over time, and we have had our dividend most recently at or close to that soft cap.

但我們普遍表示，董事會喜歡隨著時間的推移靈活地增加股息，而且我們最近的股息達到或接近該軟上限。

So, we would love that capacity, and I would imagine that, over time, it may be used.

所以，我們會喜歡這種能力，我想隨著時間的推移，它可能會被使用。

But again, it is a Board decision, not a management decision.

但同樣，這是董事會的決定，而不是管理層的決定。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

And then just one last follow-up: On the G-SIB buffer, obviously you guys have done an incredible job in bringing it down to where it is today.

然後是最後一個跟進：在 G-SIB 緩衝區上，顯然你們已經完成了一項令人難以置信的工作，將其降到了今天的水平。

When do you expect the regulators to put you into that bucket, assuming you guys are obviously looking at the same types of numbers?

假設你們顯然正在查看相同類型的數字，您希望監管機構何時將您放入該桶中？

From -- we do everything pro forma.

從——我們做一切備考。

So, first of all, I would say the following.

所以，首先，我要說以下幾點。

Right now, my understanding -- and if I'm wrong, forgive me -- is that it's your spot balance sheet two years prior that would drive your G-SIB two years forward.

現在，我的理解——如果我錯了，請原諒我——兩年前的即期資產負債表將推動你的 G-SIB 向前兩年。

But the reality, if you ask my opinion, given that we're going to be reporting quarterly going forward, and because of the likelihood that G-SIB may or may not feature into CCAR, I think it's going to be less important, necessarily, what you are at any one moment in time, but where you are projecting to be or stay.

但現實情況，如果你問我的意見，考慮到我們將在未來每季度報告一次，而且由於 G-SIB 可能會或可能不會納入 CCAR，我認為它必然會變得不那麼重要，你在任何一個時刻是什麼，但你計劃成為或停留在哪裡。

So, I suspect that we will get the benefit, potentially, of this, not today.

所以，我懷疑我們會潛在地從中受益，而不是今天。

We just closed our balance sheet.

我們剛剛關閉了資產負債表。

But I think that it's going to need to be a little bit more dynamic going forward, as it gets potentially introduced into stress test.

但我認為它需要更加動態，因為它有可能被引入壓力測試。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

But I don't know that.

但我不知道。

At this time, there are no further questions.

此時，沒有進一步的問題。

Thank you, everyone.

謝謝大家。

This concludes today's conference call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連接。