滙豐控股 (HSBC) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, good afternoon, good evening, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Investor and Analyst Webinar for HSBC Holdings plc's 2023 Annual Results. For your information, this webinar is being recorded.

早安、下午好、晚上好，女士們、先生們，歡迎參加匯豐控股有限公司 2023 年年度業績的投資者和分析師網絡研討會。為了供您參考，我們正在錄製本次網路研討會。

At this time, I will hand over to Noel Quinn, Group Chief Executive.

此時，我將把工作交給集團執行長諾埃爾奎因 (Noel Quinn)。

Good afternoon to those in Hong Kong, and great to see you all. Good morning to those watching in London and around the world. Before Georges takes you through the Q4 numbers, I'll make some opening comments.

香港的朋友們下午好，很高興見到你們。倫敦和世界各地的觀眾早安。在喬治帶您了解第四季度的數據之前，我先做一些開場評論。

First, I'm really pleased with the performance that the team delivered in 2023. We reported $30 million of PBT for the first time ever. And we delivered a return on tangible equity of 14.6% or 15.6%, excluding material notable items.

首先，我對團隊在 2023 年的表現感到非常滿意。我們首次報告了 3000 萬美元的 PBT。我們的有形股本回報率為 14.6% 或 15.6%（不包括重要的顯著項目）。

Second, there were some items in the fourth quarter, which make it harder to understand the underlying performance. Georges will take you through them in detail. But I want to stress, there was still good underlying growth in the fourth quarter. Excluding the impact of notable items and Argentina hyperinflation, our profit before tax was $7.3 billion.

其次，第四季的一些項目使得人們更難理解其基本表現。喬治將帶您詳細了解它們。但我想強調的是，第四季仍然存在良好的潛在成長。排除重要項目和阿根廷惡性通貨膨脹的影響，我們的稅前利潤為 73 億美元。

Third, we distributed $19 billion of capital returns to our shareholders in respect of 2023. This included a full year dividend of $0.61 per share, which is the highest since 2008; and $7 billion of share buybacks, which have reduced the share count by over 4% at completion of the current buyback.

第三，我們在2023年向股東分配了190億美元的資本回報。其中包括每股0.61美元的全年股息，這是自2008年以來的最高水準；以及 70 億美元的股票回購，目前回購完成後，股票數量減少了 4% 以上。

Fourth, we still expect to have substantial distribution capacity going forward. We've announced a further share buyback of up to $2 billion. We're committed to considering a special dividend of $0.21 per share, as a priority use of the Canada proceeds, subject to the completion of the transaction. And we finished the year with a strong CET1 ratio of 14.8%, which will be further boosted by the Canada deal.

第四，我們仍預期未來將擁有大量的分銷能力。我們宣布進一步回購高達 20 億美元的股票。我們致力於考慮派發每股 0.21 美元的特別股息，作為加拿大收益的優先用途，前提是交易完成。今年我們的 CET1 比率高達 14.8%，加拿大協議將進一步提振這一水平。

Fifth, we remain committed to cost discipline. We have flow-through impact of 2023 inflation on our cost this year, but expect a downward trend in inflationary pressures in 2025 and beyond. We continue to invest in growth opportunities and the digitization of our business to drive incremental efficiencies. We remain very focused on funding much of that investment through cost-saving initiatives.

第五，我們仍然致力於成本控制。我們今年的成本受到 2023 年通膨的影響，但預計 2025 年及以後通膨壓力將呈下降趨勢。我們繼續投資成長機會和業務數位化，以提高效率。我們仍然非常注重透過節省成本的措施為大部分投資提供資金。

Finally, we expect to have further opportunities to grow revenue even in a lower rate environment. Georges will take you through how we're reducing our sensitivity to rate movements. And we do acknowledge the downside risk to NII. But we're confident that we have the levers for growth that allow us to deliver mid-teen returns in 2024.

最後，我們預計即使在較低的利率環境下也有進一步增加收入的機會。喬治將帶您了解我們如何降低對利率變動的敏感度。我們確實承認 NII 有下行風險。但我們相信，我們擁有成長槓桿，使我們能夠在 2024 年實現中位數回報。

I'll take you through some of these levers later. But let me now hand over to Georges.

稍後我將帶您了解其中一些槓桿。現在讓我把時間交給喬治。

Thank you, Noel. A warm welcome to everyone here in Hong Kong. For those of you watching in London, good morning, and thank you for joining our full year 2023 results call.

謝謝你，諾埃爾。熱烈歡迎大家來到香港。對於那些在倫敦觀看比賽的人來說，早上好，感謝您參加我們的 2023 年全年業績電話會議。

We delivered a good underlying business performance in the fourth quarter. But let me first start by clarifying that our reported profit before tax was impacted by $5.8 billion of notable items and a further $0.5 billion from Argentina hyperinflation, including the more than 50% devaluation of the peso in December.

我們第四季的基本業務表現良好。但首先我要澄清的是，我們報告的稅前利潤受到了 58 億美元的顯著項目的影響，以及阿根廷惡性通貨膨脹造成的另外 5 億美元的影響，其中包括 12 月份比索貶值超過 50%。

Let me unpack 3 of those notable items. First, we reinstated the impairment on the sale of our France retail business as signaled at the third quarter. Second, we booked a $0.4 billion of treasury disposal losses in the quarter again, in line with the guidance at the third quarter to extend the duration of hedges in anticipation of rate decreases.

讓我拆開其中 3 件值得注意的物品。首先，我們恢復了第三季所暗示的出售法國零售業務的減損。其次，我們在本季再次計入了 4 億美元的國債處置損失，這與第三季因預期利率下降而延長對沖期限的指引一致。

And finally, as you know, each quarter, we conduct a value-in-use test on the carrying value of our investment in BoCom described in detail in our annual reporting accounts. Following the outcomes of that test in Q4, we took a charge of $3 billion in the quarter against our carrying value. The charge had an insignificant impact on CET1 capital and our CET1 ratio and no impact on our dividends or share buyback. And just to be clear, this has no impact on our strategy in Mainland China, has no impact on our strategic relationship with BoCom and it has no impact on HSBC's or BoCom's operation, strategy or outlook.

最後，如您所知，每個季度，我們都會對我們在交通銀行的投資的帳面價值進行使用價值測試，這在我們的年度報告帳目中進行了詳細描述。根據第四季的測試結果，我們在本季從帳面價值中扣除了 30 億美元的費用。該費用對 CET1 資本和我們的 CET1 比率影響不大，對我們的股利或股票回購沒有影響。需要明確的是，這對我們在中國大陸的策略沒有影響，對我們與交通銀行的策略關係沒有影響，對匯豐銀行或交通銀行的營運、策略或前景沒有影響。

So on a reported basis, our profit before tax was $1 billion in the fourth quarter, down $4 billion from the fourth quarter of 2022. Excluding the $6.3 billion impact of notable items in Argentina hyperinflation, our profit before tax was $7.3 billion, up $0.7 billion versus the fourth quarter of 2022, primarily due to growth in banking NII.

因此，根據報告，我們第四季的稅前利潤為10 億美元，比2022 年第四季減少了40 億美元。排除阿根廷惡性通貨膨脹中值得注意的項目的63 億美元影響，我們的稅前利潤為73 億美元，成長了0.7 美元與 2022 年第四季相比，增加了 10 億美元，主要是由於銀行業NII 的成長。

On the next slide, so on a reported basis, fourth quarter revenue was down $1.6 billion compared to the same period last year due to the impact of notable items in Argentina hyperinflation. Excluding these, our revenue was up $1.5 billion, primarily banking NII. The strength of our deposit franchise, our access to 2 pools of liquidity in the U.K. and Hong Kong and our enviable balance sheet made it possible for us to benefit from the more favorable rate environment.

在下一張幻燈片中，根據報告，由於阿根廷惡性通貨膨脹的顯著項目的影響，第四季度收入比去年同期下降了 16 億美元。排除這些，我們的收入增加了 15 億美元，主要是銀行 NII。我們的存款特許經營權的優勢、我們在英國和香港的兩個流動資金池的訪問權以及我們令人羨慕的資產負債表使我們能夠從更有利的利率環境中受益。

On the next slide, fourth quarter NII and banking NII were again impacted by Argentina hyperinflation and a reclassification of cash flow hedge revenue between NII and non-NII. Excluding these, both NII and banking NII were broadly stable in the third quarter and NIM was down 3 basis points, primarily due to higher time deposit costs and deposit migration in Hong Kong.

在下一張投影片中，第四季NII和銀行NII再次受到阿根廷惡性通貨膨脹以及NII和非NII之間現金流對沖收入重新分類的影響。排除這些因素，第三季NII和銀行NII基本上穩定，NIM下降3個基點，主要是由於香港定期存款成本上升和存款遷移。

Turning to the outlook. Taking our fourth quarter banking NII and adjusting for Argentina hyperinflation and the reclassification of cash flow hedge revenue, and the disposal of our France Retail and Canada businesses gives you an annualized run rate of just above $43 billion. That should be your starting point for modeling our 2024 banking NII.

轉向前景。以我們第四季的銀行業 NII 為例，根據阿根廷惡性通貨膨脹和現金流對沖收入的重新分類進行調整，以及法國零售和加拿大業務的處置，年化運作率略高於 430 億美元。這應該是您對 2024 年銀行 NII 進行建模的起點。

We expect 4 key variables to drive our banking NII from that starting point in 2024: changes in interest rates; the reinvestment of maturing structural hedge assets at higher yield; deposit migration, particularly here in Hong Kong and balance sheet movements. There is a degree of uncertainty inherent in all of these. We're guiding towards the banking NII of at least $41 billion in 2024.

我們預計 2024 年有 4 個關鍵變數將推動我們的銀行業 NII 從這個起點開始：利率變化；以更高的收益率對到期的結構性對沖資產進行再投資；存款遷移（特別是在香港）和資產負債表變動。所有這些都存在一定程度的固有不確定性。我們的目標是到 2024 年銀行業 NII 至少達到 410 億美元。

This is our current estimate of the bottom end of the range of reasonable outcomes and is intended to help you with your modeling. We will continue updating further as the year unfolds.

這是我們目前對合理結果範圍下限的估計，旨在幫助您進行建模。隨著時間的推移，我們將繼續進一步更新。

And before turning to non-NII, I'd like to direct your attention to the chart on the bottom right of this slide. Over the last 18 months, our banking NII sensitivity has reduced by around $3.5 billion. More than 1/3 of this reduction is due to increased structural interest rate hedging. Subject to market conditions, we expect to increase both the notional and the duration of our structural hedge in the coming quarters in order to reduce our banking NII sensitivity still further.

在轉向非 NII 之前，我想請您注意這張投影片右下角的圖表。在過去 18 個月中，我們的銀行業 NII 敏感度降低了約 35 億美元。其中超過 1/3 的減少是由於結構性利率對沖的增加。根據市場情況，我們預計在未來幾季增加結構性避險的名義和期限，以進一步降低銀行業NII敏感度。

Non-NII was down $0.9 billion compared to the same quarter last year due to notable items in Argentina hyperinflation. And again, excluding these non-NII was up $1.7 billion versus the same quarter last year. This was primarily due to the revenue offset into non-NII from the central cost of funding Global Banking and Markets trading activity, which is included in banking NII. And from the cash flow hedge income reclassification between NII and non-NII I referred to previously.

由於阿根廷惡性通貨膨脹的顯著項目，非 NII 與去年同期相比減少了 9 億美元。再一次，排除這些非 NII，與去年同期相比增加了 17 億美元。這主要是由於全球銀行和市場交易活動融資的中央成本（包含在銀行業NII中）抵銷了非NII的收入。以及從我之前提到的NII和非NII之間的現金流量對沖收入重新分類。

Other non-NII was up modestly versus the same quarter last year, including an increase of $0.1 billion in net fee income primarily in Commercial Banking and Wealth and Personal Banking.

與去年同期相比，其他非 NII 略有成長，其中主要來自商業銀行以及財富和個人銀行業務的淨費用收入增加了 1 億美元。

Looking at non-NII from our 2 strategic activities of wholesale transaction banking and wealth, in wholesale transaction banking, non-NII was up 2% on the fourth quarter of 2022. There was good growth in Global Payment Solution, in trade and in foreign exchange reflecting the strength of our international network and transaction banking capabilities as well as increased client activity and repricing initiatives. This was partly offset by a relatively small decrease in security services.

從我們的批發交易銀行和財富這兩項策略活動來看，非NII在批發交易銀行中，非NII比2022年第四季成長了2%。全球支付解決方案、貿易和國外業務都有良好的成長交易所反映了我們的國際網路和交易銀行能力的實力以及客戶活動和重新定價措施的增加。這部分被安全服務相對較小的減少所抵消。

In wealth, non-NII in both Asset Management and Private Banking grew by double digits versus the fourth quarter of last year due to an increase in assets under management, partly driven by net new invested assets. However, total wealth non-NII was down $0.1 billion as a result of a $0.2 billion correction to historical valuation estimates in our Insurance business.

在財富方面，資產管理和私人銀行業務的非NII較去年第四季均實現兩位數成長，原因是管理資產增加，部分原因是新投資淨資產的推動。然而，由於我們保險業務的歷史估值估計修正了 2 億美元，因此非 NII 總財富減少了 1 億美元。

For the full year, non-NII in Wholesale Transaction Banking was $10.6 billion, up 5% on 2022 and $6 billion in Wealth, up 7%.

全年，批發交易銀行業務的非 NII 為 106 億美元，較 2022 年成長 5%，財富為 60 億美元，成長 7%。

Turning now to credit. Our fourth quarter ECL charge was $1 billion, primarily in wholesale. This brought our full year ECL charge to $3.4 billion, which was 33 basis points of average customer loans, including those held for sale or 36 basis points, excluding those, and within our full year 2023 guidance. Due to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, we're guiding towards ECLs of around 40 basis points for 2024.

現在轉向信用。我們第四季的 ECL 費用為 10 億美元，主要是批發費用。這使得我們全年的預期信用損失費用達到34 億美元，是平均客戶貸款（包括持有待售貸款）的33 個基點，或不包括這些貸款的36 個基點，並且在我們2023 年全年的指導範圍內。由於宏觀經濟持續存在不確定性，我們預期 2024 年預期信用損失約為 40 個基點。

We took an ECL charge of $0.2 billion for Mainland China commercial real estate in the fourth quarter as part of the $1 billion charge for the quarter referenced in the last slide. This brought the full year charge on this portfolio to $1 billion, crystallizing the plausible downside scenario that we set out last February.

我們在第四季度對中國大陸商業房地產收取了 2 億美元的預期信用損失費用，作為上一張幻燈片中提到的該季度 10 億美元費用的一部分。這使得該投資組合的全年費用達到 10 億美元，具體化了我們去年 2 月提出的合理的下行情境。

Our main area of focus remains the portfolio booked in Hong Kong. That exposure is now $6.3 billion, down $1.2 billion in the quarter, and down $3.1 billion compared to full year '22. We continue to monitor the sector closely, and we are comfortable with our current level of provisions.

我們的主要關注領域仍然是在香港預訂的投資組合。該風險敞口目前為 63 億美元，本季減少了 12 億美元，與 22 年全年相比減少了 31 億美元。我們將繼續密切監控該行業，並對目前的撥備水準感到滿意。

Turning to costs. Full year 2023 costs on a constant currency basis were down 1%. On a target basis, full year 2023 costs came in 1% higher than our Q3 guidance, driven by 3 items that unexpectedly landed in the fourth quarter.

轉向成本。以固定匯率計算，2023 年全年成本下降 1%。根據目標，2023 年全年成本比我們第三季的指導高出 1%，這是由第四季度意外出現的 3 個項目推動的。

First, the FDIC special assessment, which we expected to be incurred over '24 and '25. Second, the U.K. bank levy was higher than forecast, primarily due to adjustments relating to prior years. And third, there was an offsetting benefit from Argentina hyperinflation in the quarter.

首先是 FDIC 特別評估，我們預計將在 24 年和 25 年期間進行。其次，英國銀行稅高於預期，主要是由於與往年相關的調整。第三，本季阿根廷的惡性通貨膨脹帶來了抵銷性的好處。

Looking ahead, we are aiming to limit cost growth to around 5% in 2024 on a target basis, which excludes the reduction in 2024 costs from the France retail and Canada disposals. This will be driven by the flow-through impact of 2023 inflation to 2024 costs, investment and volume growth and partly offset by cost-saving initiatives.

展望未來，我們的目標是在 2024 年將成本成長限制在 5% 左右，其中不包括法國零售和加拿大處置帶來的 2024 年成本降低。這將受到 2023 年通膨對 2024 年成本、投資和數量增長的流動影響的推動，並部分被成本節約舉措所抵消。

On the next slide, customer lending and deposits were broadly stable versus the third quarter once you exclude the sale of our France retail business. Without that, there was $35 billion of deposit growth, of which $27 billion was in Asia with around half of this in Hong Kong. Deposit growth in Asia benefited from seasonality, and we would expect at least some of that growth to reverse in the course of Q1.

在下一張投影片中，如果排除法國零售業務的出售，客戶貸款和存款與第三季相比基本上穩定。如果沒有這一點，存款將增加 350 億美元，其中 270 億美元在亞洲，其中約一半在香港。亞洲的存款成長受益於季節性，我們預計至少部分成長將在第一季出現逆轉。

Turning now to capital. Our CET1 ratio at the end of 2023 was 14.8%, which was down 0.1 percentage points on the third quarter. There are 3 things I'd like to draw your attention to. First, as I said earlier, the BoCom charge had an insignificant impact on CET1 capital and our CET1 ratio due to the compensating reduction in regulatory capital threshold deductions, and it had no impact on dividends or share buybacks.

現在轉向資本。 2023年底，我們的CET1比率為14.8%，比第三季下降0.1個百分點。我想提請您注意三件事。首先，正如我之前所說，由於監管資本門檻扣除額的補償性降低，交通銀行的收費對CET1資本和我們的CET1比率影響不大，並且對股息或股票回購沒有影響。

Second, we expect the share buyback announced today to have an impact of around 25 basis points on our CET1 ratio in the first quarter of 2024.

其次，我們預計今天宣布的股票回購將對我們 2024 年第一季的 CET1 比率產生約 25 個基點的影響。

And finally, we expect the Canada sale to generate around 1.2 percentage points of CET1 in the first quarter of 2024. We remain committed to consider $0.21 per share special dividend in the first half of 2024 as a priority use of the sale proceeds, which equates to around 0.5 percentage points of CET1.

最後，我們預計加拿大出售將在2024 年第一季產生約1.2 個百分點的CET1。我們仍然致力於考慮在2024 年上半年優先使用每股0.21 美元的特別股息，作為出售收益的優先用途，這相當於CET1 的 0.5 個百分點點左右。

Before I hand back to Noel, I am pleased to share some enhancements that we have made with regard to our international disclosures. There are 2 sets of data, and Noel will also comment further on them.

在我回到諾埃爾之前，我很高興與大家分享我們在國際披露方面所做的一些改進。有2組數據，Noel也會進一步評論。

Starting with our Wholesale business. Let me walk you through the data on this slide. In 2023, we generated $33.5 billion of client revenue across Commercial Banking and Global Banking and Markets. Of this, $20.4 billion was generated from multi-jurisdictional clients. By this, we mean clients that bank with us in more than 1 market.

從我們的批發業務開始。讓我帶您瀏覽一下這張投影片上的數據。 2023 年，我們在商業銀行以及全球銀行和市場領域創造了 335 億美元的客戶收入。其中，204 億美元來自跨司法管轄區的客戶。我們指的是多個市場透過我們開展銀行業務的客戶。

The charts on the right show that 2/3 of the client revenue we generate from those clients comes from providing them with services in markets outside their home market, where they also bank with us. It is also worth pointing out that 2/3 of multi-jurisdictional client revenue or $13.4 billion was generated from clients whose home market is in the West, with the remaining $7 billion from clients whose home market is in the East.

右圖顯示，我們從這些客戶獲得的客戶收入中有 2/3 來自於為他們在本國市場以外的市場提供服務，而他們也透過我們進行銀行業務。另外值得指出的是，2/3 的跨司法管轄區客戶收入（134 億美元）來自於西方本土市場的客戶，其餘 70 億美元則來自東方本土市場的客戶。

Turning now to WPB, international revenue. more than $10 billion or 40% of our WPB revenue comes from international customers, around 2/3 of which is generated in Asia.

現在轉向 WPB，國際收入。超過 100 億美元（即我們的 WPB 收入的 40%）來自國際客戶，其中約 2/3 來自亞洲。

So to summarize, both the wholesale and WPB client revenue data clearly demonstrates the strength of our international network and our unique capability to serve international clients. Our network and further investments into our international proposition position us to capture an even greater share of this vital fast-growing segment.

總而言之，批發和 WPB 客戶收入數據清楚地表明了我們國際網絡的實力以及我們服務國際客戶的獨特能力。我們的網路和對國際業務的進一步投資使我們能夠在這個重要的快速成長的細分市場中佔據更大的份額。

Let me now hand back to Noel.

現在讓我把話題交還給諾埃爾。

Thank you, Georges. You've just heard about good underlying performance in the fourth quarter. And Georges has introduced more detailed information about our international revenue.

謝謝你，喬治。您剛剛聽說第四季度的基本業績良好。喬治介紹了有關我們國際收入的更多詳細資訊。

Our Wholesale international business model is a mature and differentiated business model with substantial scale. And in recent years, we have started to develop and invest in our WPB international business model. What Georges' slide showed is that already 40% of WPB revenue comes from international customers. And we believe we can take it much further.

我們的批發國際業務模式是成熟的差異化業務模式，具有相當的規模。近年來，我們開始開發和投資 WPB 國際商業模式。 Georges 的幻燈片顯示，WPB 收入的 40% 已經來自國際客戶。我們相信我們可以走得更遠。

So let me now turn to how we will drive revenue growth, not just this year and next but over the next 3 to 4 years. As always, I'll begin with our purpose, ambition, strategy and values. These have helped to drive the good underlying business growth, which alongside supportive interest rates have given us strong momentum.

現在讓我談談我們將如何推動營收成長，不僅是今年和明年，而是在未來 3 到 4 年。像往常一樣，我將從我們的目標、抱負、策略和價值觀開始。這些有助於推動良好的基礎業務成長，再加上支持性的利率，為我們帶來了強勁的動力。

In the short term, we're conscious of the potential downside risk to NII. The structural hedging we have put in place will help to protect that income. But we do have some clear focus areas under our 4 strategic pillars, which I will cover on the following slides.

短期內，我們意識到 NII 的潛在下行風險。我們實施的結構性避險將有助於保護該收入。但我們在 4 個策略支柱下確實有一些明確的重點領域，我將在下面的投影片中介紹這些領域。

Starting with focus. In our international wholesale business, which remains our biggest competitive advantage and because of its scale, our biggest growth opportunity. In the past, our businesses in the West were primarily focused on domestic clients. Over the last 4 years, we have repositioned those businesses to align them with our international strategy, exiting low return and low growth domestic RWAs. The result is the differentiated model you see today.

從專注開始。在我們的國際批發業務中，這仍然是我們最大的競爭優勢，由於其規模，這也是我們最大的成長機會。過去，我們在西方的業務主要集中在國內客戶。在過去 4 年裡，我們重新定位了這些業務，使其與我們的國際策略保持一致，退出了低迴報和低成長的國內 RWA。結果就是您今天看到的差異化模型。

In Commercial Banking, we are unique in our ability to serve clients across multiple geographies, which is what HSBC was founded to do. The result was the $13.3 billion of profit before tax that Commercial Banking generated last year.

在商業銀行業務領域，我們擁有獨特的能力，能夠為多個地區的客戶提供服務，這也是匯豐銀行成立的初衷。結果是商業銀行去年創造了 133 億美元的稅前利潤。

In Global Banking and Markets, I believe we are uniquely positioned to connect clients between West and East, which was evident in our market-leading performances in markets like the Middle East and businesses like global foreign exchange.

在全球銀行和市場領域，我相信我們在連接東西方客戶方面擁有獨特的優勢，這一點從我們在中東等市場和全球外匯等業務中的市場領先表現中可見一斑。

We have clearly got a strong international franchise. As you can see, we facilitated more than $850 billion of trade last year. With the diversification of supply chains leading to revenue growth opportunities for HSBC.

我們顯然擁有強大的國際特許經營權。正如您所看到的，去年我們促進了超過 8500 億美元的貿易。隨著供應鏈的多元化為匯豐銀行帶來收入成長機會。

We ranked #2 globally by revenue in our payments business, and processed around $500 trillion of electronic payments. And we've been #3 globally by revenue in FX since 2021. But I believe there is significant amounts of untapped opportunity still to go for, which can drive revenue growth in the face of declining interest rates.

我們的支付業務收入在全球排名第二，處理了約 500 兆美元的電子支付。自 2021 年以來，我們的外匯收入一直位居全球第三。但我相信，仍有大量未開發的機會有待挖掘，這可以在利率下降的情況下推動收入成長。

Importantly, this potential revenue growth is not necessarily dependent on GDP as that growth opportunity already exists within our client base. And it is often fee-based and strongly influenced by opportunities that are inherent to our international nature of our client base.

重要的是，這種潛在的收入成長不一定取決於 GDP，因為我們的客戶群中已經存在這種成長機會。而且它通常是收費的，並且受到我們客戶群的國際性質所固有的機會的強烈影響。

To provide some evidence of this growth potential, we grew Wholesale multi-jurisdictional client revenue by 29% in 2023. And the revenue multiplier for multi-jurisdictional corporate clients in Commercial Banking was 5x that of an average domestic-only customer.

為了證明這種成長潛力，我們在 2023 年將批發跨司法管轄區客戶收入成長了 29%。商業銀行業務中跨司法管轄區企業客戶的收入乘數是一般國內客戶的 5 倍。

I'm pleased that international isn't just a wholesale story. We are doing more with our WPB customers as well, building our Wealth business to meet the rising demand for Wealth Management services, especially here in Asia, has been a strategic priority in recent years.

我很高興國際化不僅僅是一個批發故事。我們也與 WPB 客戶進行更多合作，建立我們的財富業務以滿足日益增長的財富管理服務需求，尤其是在亞洲，這已成為近年來的策略重點。

So I'm pleased that we attracted net new invested assets of $84 billion last year compared to $80 billion in 2022 and $64 billion in 2021. This is a good indicator of future revenue opportunities, which again is often fee income and should benefit in a lower interest rate environment as investors shift from cash reserves into invested asset classes.

因此，我很高興去年我們吸引了840 億美元的淨新投資資產，而2022 年為800 億美元，2021 年為640 億美元。這是未來收入機會的一個很好的指標，這通常是費用收入，應該會受益於未來的收入機會。隨著投資者從現金儲備轉向投資資產類別，利率環境降低。

Another trend is the growing demand for seamless cross-border banking services. Innovation is key here, and we hadn't innovated enough in this space in the past, which meant we weren't offering our customers what they wanted. What we are now, Global Money has more than 1.3 million customers, up from 550,000 a year ago.

另一個趨勢是對無縫跨境銀行服務的需求不斷增長。創新是這裡的關鍵，過去我們在這個領域沒有足夠的創新，這意味著我們沒有為客戶提供他們想要的東西。目前，Global Money 擁有超過 130 萬客戶，而一年前為 55 萬。

We also launched a new strengthened international banking proposition. Overall, we grew revenue from WPB international customers by 41% last year from $7.2 billion to $10.2 billion. And while you might assume this was driven solely by higher rates, I'm pleased to say there was a 43% jump in new-to-bank international WPB customers last year. Again, these are higher revenue generating customers, bringing in 3x as much revenue as an average domestic-only customer.

我們也推出了新的強化國際銀行業務計畫。總體而言，去年我們來自 WPB 國際客戶的營收成長了 41%，從 72 億美元增加到 102 億美元。雖然您可能會認為這完全是由較高的利率驅動的，但我很高興地說，去年新加入銀行的國際 WPB 客戶數量增加了 43%。同樣，這些客戶的收入較高，帶來的收入是一般國內客戶的 3 倍。

Next is the continued growth in our 2 home markets. Our leading propositions in Hong Kong and the U.K. provide us with deep liquidity and a differentiated proposition. These 2 pools of liquidity underpin our exceptionally strong balance sheet, which gives us the safety and security that our clients trust us to provide.

接下來是我們兩個本土市場的持續成長。我們在香港和英國的領先主張為我們提供了深厚的流動性和差異化的主張。這兩個流動性池支撐著我們異常強勁的資產負債表，為我們提供了客戶信任的安全保障。

Hong Kong and the U.K. are both highly connected global financial centers. We have increased our market-leading share of trade finance in Hong Kong by 6.6 percentage points over the last 3 years. This included a 2.4 percentage point increase last year alone.

香港和英國都是緊密聯繫的全球金融中心。過去三年，我們在香港的貿易融資市場領先份額提高了 6.6 個百分點。光是去年就增加了 2.4 個百分點。

We are also ideally positioned to capitalize as the mass affluent population in Hong Kong and Mainland China continues to grow. Driven by rapid urbanization across Mainland China and the increased use of the connect schemes between Mainland China and Hong Kong. We grew new-to-bank retail customers in Hong Kong by 36% over the last 3 years, including by capitalizing on the significant increase of visitors from Mainland China post reopening.

隨著香港和中國內地大眾富裕的人口持續成長，我們也處於有利的地位。受中國大陸快速城市化以及中國大陸與香港之間互聯互通計劃使用增加的推動。過去 3 年，我們在香港的新銀行零售客戶成長了 36%，其中包括利用重新開業後中國大陸遊客大幅增加的機會。

In the U.K., we also have good traction in Commercial Banking. In 2023, we were the #1 bank for U.K. large corporates, as well as the best bank in the U.K. for SMEs according to Euromoney. And we are continuing to grow in Wealth and Personal Banking.

在英國，我們在商業銀行業務方面也有良好的吸引力。根據《歐洲貨幣》雜誌，2023 年，我們是英國大型企業排名第一的銀行，也是英國中小企業最佳銀行。我們在財富和個人銀行業務方面不斷發展。

We attracted over 1 million new-to-bank customers in the U.K. last year. And we've had steady mortgage growth, increasing our market share of U.K. stock to 8%. As economic conditions improve, and we continue to invest, we're confident in our ability to grow our business further in these critical areas.

去年，我們在英國吸引了超過 100 萬新銀行客戶。我們的抵押貸款成長穩定，將我們在英國股市的市佔率增加到 8%。隨著經濟狀況的改善以及我們繼續投資，我們對在這些關鍵領域進一步發展業務的能力充滿信心。

Next, I showed a slide like this last year to demonstrate how we've gone from a business that depended on our home markets for the vast majority of our profits, while the rest of the franchise underperformed to one with broad-based profitability across markets. This slide shows the increasing profitability of these diversified growth opportunities.

接下來，我去年展示了一張像這樣的幻燈片，以展示我們如何從一家依賴國內市場獲取絕大多數利潤、而其他特許經營業務表現不佳的企業，轉變為一家在各個市場都具有廣泛盈利能力的企業。這張投影片顯示了這些多元化成長機會的獲利能力不斷提高。

The #1 ranking speak for themselves. And I especially want to call out the great work that the Global Banking and Markets team are doing in the Middle East. They now topped these rankings 3 years in a row in a region that presents significant growth opportunities going forward.

第一名的排名不言而喻。我特別想讚揚全球銀行和市場團隊在中東所做的出色工作。他們現在已連續三年在該地區名列前茅，該地區未來將提供巨大的成長機會。

India, Mainland China excluding associates and Singapore all contributed more than $1 billion of profits in 2023. With Singapore doing so for the first time. This underlines why HSBC was named Best Bank in Asia by Euromoney, but there was strong growth across all these markets.

印度、中國大陸（不包括聯營公司）和新加坡在 2023 年貢獻的利潤均超過 10 億美元。其中新加坡首次實現這一目標。這突顯了匯豐銀行被《歐洲貨幣》評為亞洲最佳銀行的原因，而所有這些市場都出現了強勁成長。

The next slide underlines that we have reshaped our portfolio to reinforce strengths while exiting areas of underperformance and/or lower strategic priority. Over the last 12 months, we've announced exits in a number of our smaller markets. This is one way that we expect to take out further costs alongside our continued focus on improving the internal efficiency of the bank. And by making savings, we can invest in the areas on the left that help us to drive growth.

下一張投影片強調，我們已經重塑了我們的投資組合，以增強優勢，同時退出表現不佳和/或戰略優先級較低的領域。在過去 12 個月中，我們宣布退出一些較小的市場。這是我們期望在繼續關注提高銀行內部效率的同時進一步降低成本的一種方式。透過節省開支，我們可以投資於有助於我們推動成長的左側領域。

Before I move on, I want to mention SVB UK. Everyone knows that HSBC is an international bank. But we also have a long history of supporting innovative entrepreneurs. And the acquisition of SVB UK enabled us to build a bigger proposition that can help us to become known as the go-to bank for innovation companies.

在繼續之前，我想提一下 SVB UK。大家都知道匯豐銀行是一家國際銀行。但我們在支持創新企業家方面也有著悠久的歷史。收購 SVB UK 使我們能夠建立一個更大的主張，幫助我們成為創新公司的首選銀行。

It's encouraging that Innovation Banking had its best ever quarter for customer onboarding in the fourth quarter of 2023. I'm also encouraged by how many of those innovative companies want to take their capabilities across border.

令人鼓舞的是，創新銀行業務在 2023 年第四季迎來了有史以來最好的客戶入職季度。令我感到鼓舞的是，有許多創新公司希望跨國發揮其能力。

The next slide sets out how we're investing in technology to make customer experiences better, so process is more efficient and our cost of execution lower. I'm pleased to see more of our personal and corporate customers on mobile and digitally active. HSBC has traditionally grown by cross-selling products to our existing banking clients.

下一張投影片介紹了我們如何投資科技來改善客戶體驗，從而提高流程效率並降低執行成本。我很高興看到更多的個人和企業客戶使用行動和數位方式活躍。匯豐銀行歷來透過向現有銀行客戶交叉銷售產品來實現成長。

But innovation also enables us to open up growth avenues that are beyond our traditional customer footprint. Zing is one such growth avenue, because it offers cross-border payment capabilities, but critically, it is targeted at non-HSBC customers. Our embedded finance joint venture announced with Tradeshift last year, is another such growth avenue. It's still early days for both, but they will allow us to break outside of the existing business model.

但創新也使我們能夠開闢超越傳統客戶足跡的成長途徑。 Zing 就是這樣的成長途徑之一，因為它提供跨境支付功能，但更重要的是，它針對的是非匯豐客戶。我們去年與 Tradeshift 宣布成立的嵌入式金融合資企業是另一個這樣的成長途徑。對於兩者來說，現在都還處於早期階段，但它們將使我們能夠突破現有的商業模式。

I will also briefly cover our final 2 pillars. There isn't a conversation I have with a client where the Net Zero transition doesn't come up. Our first Net Zero transition plan shows how we intend to finance and support the transition to Net Zero and collaborate globally to help enable change at scale. It will be a complex journey, but we have exactly the right geographic footprint where the need and opportunity are greatest.

我還將簡要介紹我們的最後兩個支柱。在我與客戶的對話中，無一不提到淨零轉型。我們的第一個淨零過渡計畫展示了我們打算如何資助和支持向淨零的過渡，並在全球範圍內合作以幫助實現大規模變革。這將是一個複雜的旅程，但我們在需求和機會最大的地方擁有完全正確的地理足跡。

Finally, Energize. Over the last 4 years, we've increased the pace of execution across the organization. The management team is confident about the business. But it's even more important that our colleagues are confident because when they are, we stand a much greater chance of succeeding.

最後，補充能量。在過去 4 年裡，我們加快了整個組織的執行速度。管理團隊對業務充滿信心。但更重要的是，我們的同事要有信心，因為當他們有信心時，我們成功的機會就會更大。

So I'm pleased that our 2023 staff survey showed the number of colleagues seeing the positive impact of our strategy was up 11 percentage points from 2020 to 73%. And I'm also very excited by the number of quality new hires we've been able to bring into the organization over the last 12 months. It's also a vote of confidence in our strategy and the momentum we have built over the last 4 years.

因此，我很高興我們的 2023 年員工調查顯示，看到我們策略的正面影響的同事人數比 2020 年增加了 11 個百分點，達到 73%。我也對過去 12 個月我們為組織引進的大量優質新員工感到非常興奮。這也是對我們的策略和過去四年建立的勢頭的信任票。

In summary, I will go back to what I said at the start, I'm really pleased with how we performed in 2023 and the contribution that our people made. We reported $30 billion of PBT for the first time and a mid-teens RoTE. There was good underlying growth in the fourth quarter. Excluding the impact of notable items and Argentina hyperinflation, our profit before tax was $7.3 billion.

總而言之，我會回到我一開始所說的，我對我們在 2023 年的表現以及我們的員工所做的貢獻感到非常滿意。我們首次報告了 300 億美元的 PBT 和十幾歲左右的 RoTE。第四季基礎成長良好。排除重要項目和阿根廷惡性通貨膨脹的影響，我們的稅前利潤為 73 億美元。

We distributed $19 billion of capital returns to our shareholders in respect to 2023. This included the best full year dividend since 2008 and 3 share buybacks. And we still expect to have substantial distribution capacity going forward.

2023 年，我們向股東分配了 190 億美元的資本回報。其中包括 2008 年以來最好的全年股息和 3 次股票回購。我們仍預計未來將擁有大量的分銷能力。

We remain committed to cost discipline, and we expect to have further opportunities to grow revenue even in a lower rate environment. We're confident that we have the levers for growth that allow us to deliver mid-teens returns in 2024.

我們仍然致力於成本控制，即使在較低的利率環境下，我們預計也有進一步增加收入的機會。我們相信，我們擁有成長槓桿，使我們能夠在 2024 年實現十幾歲左右的回報。

With that, let me hand over to Neil for Q&A.

接下來，讓我將問答環節交給尼爾。

(Operator Instructions) For the people in the room, please wait for the microphone and make sure to state your name and the name of your institution before asking your question. We'll start with questions in the room. Okay. Gurpreet?

（操作員說明）在場的人員請等待麥克風響起，並在提問前務必說出您的姓名和所在機構的名稱。我們將從房間裡的問題開始。好的。古普雷特？

Gurpreet Sahi from Goldman. Two questions, if I may, please. The first one, is on FY '25 and beyond. We note that the RoTE guidance for this year. But if there can be any comments regarding the RoTE for '25 and beyond, in particular, if the banking NII sensitivity for the next 100 basis points of rate cuts can be kind of guided to us.

高盛的古普雷特·薩希 (Gurpreet Sahi)。如果可以的話，請提兩個問題。第一個是 25 財年及以後。我們注意到今年的 RoTE 指導。但是否可以對 25 年及以後的 RoTE 有任何評論，特別是銀行業 NII 對未來 100 個基點降息的敏感度是否可以為我們提供指導。

The second one is around the gain. The implied improvement in the capital from the gain in Canadian operations, and that remains at around $10 billion, of which $4 billion can be special dividend. So the $6 billion, have you decided on how much between capital distribution to shareholders and then business growth?

第二個是圍繞增益。加拿大業務收益帶來的資本隱含改善，仍維持在 100 億美元左右，其中 40 億美元可作為特別股息。那麼這60億美元，你決定了向股東分配資本和業務成長之間的比例是多少嗎？

Thank you very much for your questions. I'll ask Georges to cover both of those, please.

非常感謝您的提問。我會請喬治來報道這兩件事。

Thank you, Noel. Thanks, Gurpreet. So we have not, at this stage, given guidance for full year '25. I point you to the guidance we've given for full year '24 of at least $41 billion in banking NII and mid-teens return on tangible equity. In terms of Banking NII sensitivity, we do have a slide at the back end of the deck, which I can point you to, which shows for the further 100 basis points and for future years, what's the impact?

謝謝你，諾埃爾。謝謝，古普雷特。因此，現階段我們尚未給予 25 年全年的指導。我向您指出，我們為 24 年全年提供的指導意見是，銀行業 NII 至少為 410 億美元，有形股本回報率為 10 左右。就銀行業NII敏感性而言，我們確實在平台的後端有一張幻燈片，我可以向您指出，它顯示了進一步的100個基點以及未來幾年的影響是什麼？

What I can point you to is, number one, we continue to intend to increase subject to market conditions, but as of today, to increase the structural hedge. Second -- the volume of the structural hedge. Second, we continue to intend to increase the weighted average life of the structural hedge, having now reached 2.8 years and with the intent to take it to above 3 years. Both of which should give you a sense of how we're mitigating rate impacts into '24 and '25 from the structural hedging activity.

我可以向您指出的是，第一，我們繼續打算根據市場情況增加，但從今天開始，增加結構性對沖。第二－結構性避險的規模。其次，我們繼續打算延長結構性避險的加權平均壽命，目前已達2.8年，並打算將其提高到3年以上。這兩者應該能讓您了解我們如何減輕結構性避險活動對 24 和 25 年利率的影響。

With regards gain on Canada, so $10 billion of proceeds, $4 billion will be considered -- what we committed to consider as a priority use for a special dividend. The residual $6 billion will constitute about 0.8%, 0.9% additional CET1, which may -- which very likely will be at the Q1 outcome.

至於加拿大的收益，因此 100 億美元的收益將被考慮，其中 40 億美元將被考慮——我們承諾將其視為特別股息的優先用途。剩餘的 60 億美元將構成約 0.8%、0.9% 的額外 CET1，這很可能會出現在第一季的結果中。

We will continue looking at opportunities, but it remains our intent, subject to market conditions, our capital position, regulatory position, it remains our intent to continue a rolling series of share buybacks beyond this one.

我們將繼續尋找機會，但這仍然是我們的意圖，根據市場條件、我們的資本狀況、監管狀況，我們仍然打算在此次回購之後繼續進行一系列滾動股票回購。

Thank you. Any others in the room? Okay. So we'll take our first question from the line, will be from Andrew Coombs from Citi.

謝謝。房間裡還有其他人嗎？好的。我們將接受花旗銀行安德魯·庫姆斯 (Andrew Coombs) 提出的第一個問題。

Two questions, please. Firstly, I just want to clarify the messaging on the Banking NII outlook. If I rewind 12 months ago, I think you gave guidance for greater than $36 billion of reported NII. But then this time a year ago, you said you weren't seeking to move consensus, which at the time, it was actually higher at $37 billion. If I fast forward to today, you're guiding to greater than $41 billion. If I look at consensus NII, I adjust the trading book funding cost, it looks like consensus banking NII is around $44 billion. So are you seeking to rebase consensus banking NII? Or should we put greater emphasis on your greater and within that $41 billion target? So that's my first question. I just want to clarify that messaging.

請教兩個問題。首先，我只想澄清有關銀行業 NII 前景的資訊。如果我回顧 12 個月前，我認為您對報告的 NII 超過 360 億美元給出了指導。但一年前的這個時候，您說您並不尋求推動共識，而當時的共識實際上更高，達到 370 億美元。如果我快進到今天，您預計將超過 410 億美元。如果我看一下共識 NII，我調整了交易帳戶融資成本，看起來共識銀行 NII 約為 440 億美元。那麼，您是否正在尋求重新調整共識銀行 NII 的基礎？或者我們應該更加重視 410 億美元的更大目標？這是我的第一個問題。我只是想澄清這一訊息。

My second question is around the hedge. Thank you for the extra disclosure on the $478 billion nominal and the 2.8 years average life. Can you give us an idea of both the average yield on that book and also where it's currently rolling off that and when you're aiming to roll it back on that if you are extending the duration now?

我的第二個問題是關於對沖的。感謝您額外揭露 4,780 億美元的名義價值和 2.8 年的平均壽命。您能否告訴我們該書的平均收益率以及目前的滾動情況，以及如果您現在延長期限，您打算何時回滾？

I think Georges will answer both of those.

我認為喬治會回答這兩個問題。

So obviously, today, we cannot see consensus banking NII and basically, I'll use this opportunity to ask you collectively if you can start giving us your Banking NII, and so we can see the NII forecasts and then the funding cost of the trading book gets lumped together with the non-NII, and it's to be fair, very difficult for us to unpack it. Although $44 billion does sound high if we try to do the math ourselves.

很明顯，今天我們看不到銀行 NII 的共識，基本上，我將利用這個機會集體詢問你們是否可以開始向我們提供您的銀行 NII，這樣我們就可以看到 NII 預測，然後是交易的融資成本本書與非NII 混為一談，公平地說，我們很難將其拆開。儘管如果我們自己計算一下，440 億美元確實聽起來很高。

But let me take a step back and just walk you through how we're thinking about NII. And just bear with me for 2 minutes, but I think that explanation will probably help guide you.

但讓我退後一步，向您介紹一下我們對 NII 的看法。請耐心聽我 2 分鐘，但我認為這個解釋可能會對您有所幫助。

So we start from a Q4 $10.7 billion banking NII. We would adjust then Q4 for the parts related to Argentina hyperinflation as well as the reclassification of the cash flow hedges from between NII and non-NII. We'll adjust for the part that does not pertain to Q4. So that's a full year correction. And that's about an additional $0.5 billion you could use on the Q4 $10.7 billion number. So that takes you to $11.2 billion adjusted quarterly run rate.

因此，我們從第四季 107 億美元的銀行 NII 開始。我們將調整第四季度與阿根廷惡性通貨膨脹相關的部分，以及 NII 和非 NII 之間現金流對沖的重新分類。我們將對與 Q4 無關的部分進行調整。這是全年修正。在第四季 107 億美元的基礎上，您還可以額外使用約 5 億美元。因此，調整後的季度運作率為 112 億美元。

Annualized taking into account the accounts, you get to $44.4 billion. From that $44.4 billion, remember, you have to deduct the full year French NII, France, retail NII as well as 3 quarters from the Canada NII, which together combined come to about $1.3 billion. So $44.4 billion minus $1.3 billion takes you to just above $43 billion. That would be our starting position, if you want, in terms of an annualization of a run rate, factoring in structural hedges, et cetera.

考慮到帳目，按年計算，您將達到 444 億美元。請記住，從這 444 億美元中，您必須扣除全年的法國 NII、法國零售 NII 以及加拿大 3 個季度的 NII，總計約為 13 億美元。因此，444 億美元減去 13 億美元，略高於 430 億美元。如果你願意的話，這將是我們的起始立場，即運行率的年化，考慮結構性對沖等。

Now from that $43 billion, there are various tailwinds and headwinds. We have the tailwind of reinvestment of all the structural hedges from lower rates into the current rate environment. We do have some tailwinds probably cautious on H1, but tailwinds beyond H1 in terms of volume growth and loan growth.

現在，這 430 億美元存在著各種順風和逆風。我們有將所有結構性對沖從較低利率再投資到當前利率環境的順風。我們確實有一些可能對上半年持謹慎態度的順風車，但在上半年之後的順風車數量增長和貸款增長方面。

And we do have headwinds, including the rate cycle if indeed, we start seeing the decreases in the second half of the year. And we obviously have the headwinds, which we've observed specifically Hong Kong around deposit migration to term deposits. Kind of, baking all of that into account, we're getting to the guidance of at least $41 billion that we're comfortable sharing today.

我們確實遇到了阻力，包括利率週期，如果我們確實在今年下半年開始看到利率下降的話。我們顯然也遇到了阻力，我們特別在香港觀察到存款遷移到定期存款的情況。考慮到所有這些因素，我們今天可以輕鬆分享至少 410 億美元的指導。

With regards to structural hedge, we have shared with you volume. We have shared with you the weighted average life. And we have shared with you now banking NII sensitivity. We have not yet shared and we have not yet found the level of standard we would need to be able to share the yield. But what I can tell you about the yield is that both the yield of the maturing hedges being replaced at current rates, as well as the additional hedges we're doing with inverted curves are all baked into our at least $41 billion banking NII guidance.

關於結構性對沖，我們已經跟大家分享了體積。我們與您分享了加權平均壽命。我們現在已經與您分享了銀行業 NII 敏感度。我們尚未分享，也尚未找到分享收益所需的標準水準。但關於收益率，我可以告訴你的是，按當前利率替換的到期對沖收益率，以及我們用反向曲線進行的額外對沖，都納入了我們至少 410 億美元的銀行 NII 指導中。

So if I could just add a couple of comments. One reason we're not giving a statement regarding consensus is, as Georges says, we think consensus is a mixture of updated thinking that has adjusted for some of these annualization effects of disposals and other things, and some consensus hasn't adjusted for that at the moment. So I think there's a little bit of apples and pears in today's consensus position.

所以我可以添加一些評論嗎？正如喬治所說，我們沒有就共識發表聲明的一個原因是，我們認為共識是更新思維的混合體，這些思維已經針對處置和其他事項的一些年化影響進行了調整，而一些共識尚未針對這一點進行調整眼下。所以我認為今天的共識立場有一些蘋果和梨的成分。

So what Georges is clearly trying to articulate for you is take the Q4, adjust it for the known items, get to a new starting position of $43 billion and is underpinned at that starting position of $43 billion with at least $41 billion. Therefore, the range of modeling is going to be somewhere between $41 billion and $43 billion, depending on the assumptions you might make on the headwinds and the tailwinds.

因此，喬治顯然試圖向您闡明的是，以第四季度為例，根據已知項目對其進行調整，達到430 億美元的新起始位置，並以至少410 億美元的水平支撐在430 億美元的起始位置。因此，建模範圍將在 410 億美元到 430 億美元之間，具體取決於您對逆風和順風所做的假設。

And we think that given that lack of consistency on consensus, the uncertainty in the market, that's probably the best way to guide you on banking NII, but there's a very clear repositioning of the starting position to get us back on an apples-and-apples basis.

我們認為，鑑於共識缺乏一致性以及市場的不確定性，這可能是指導您處理NII 銀行業務的最佳方式，但我們對起始位置進行了非常明確的重新定位，以使我們回到蘋果和-蘋果基礎。

And then the other thing -- no, that was it. That's what I wanted to say. Those 2 comments. Thank you.

然後是另一件事——不，就是這樣。這就是我想說的話。那2條評論。謝謝。

Next question. We'll take one from the room. Katherine?

下一個問題。我們會從房間拿一份。凱瑟琳？

I'm Katherine from JPMorgan. So I have 2 questions here. The first question is I want to clarify, the mid-teen RoTE's guidance is a normalized RoTE. That means that the RoTE, excluding Canada disposal gain. So I want to clarify that because if that is the case in mid-teen RoTE, then if you look at the company compiler consensus, I think the RoTE is 17.4%. Then I just calculated on a very like top-down basis, excluding the disposal gain, then consensus RoTE is roughly about mid-teen as well.

我是來自摩根大通的凱瑟琳。所以我這裡有兩個問題。第一個問題是我想澄清的是，青少年 RoTE 的指導是標準化的 RoTE。這意味著 RoTE 不包括加拿大處置收益。所以我想澄清一下，因為如果青少年 RoTE 就是這種情況，那麼如果你看看公司編譯器共識，我認為 RoTE 是 17.4%。然後我只是在非常類似的自上而下的基礎上進行計算，排除處置收益，然後共識 RoTE 也大致約為中位數。

But the thing is that, I think that means that, the HSBC guidance and consensus is quite in line in terms of normalized RoTE. But I think on NII, on cost, NII, I think, in the previous questions, I think there may be a bit of reset in expectation. And then I think cost, the 5% cost is a bit higher than where consensus was indicating.

但問題是，我認為這意味著匯豐銀行的指導和共識在標準化 RoTE 方面非常一致。但我認為關於NII，關於成本，NII，我認為，在前面的問題中，我認為預期可能會有一些重置。然後我認為成本，5% 的成本比共識顯示的要高一些。

Then that means -- does it mean that you are quite optimistic on non-NII growth, i.e., fee growth or maybe you have a different view on asset quality and, hence, the ECL charges. I think this is the first part of the big question.

那麼這是否意味著您對非 NII 成長（即費用成長）相當樂觀，或者您對資產品質以及 ECL 費用有不同的看法。我認為這是大問題的第一部分。

The second part is on BoCom. May I know like what trigger the $3 billion impairment charges? And as China's yield is declining like they just announced a 25 basis point on 5-year LPL cuts and all those. Should we be expecting more impairments on the BoCom investment?

第二部分是交通銀行。我可以知道是什麼觸發了 30 億美元的減損費用嗎？隨著中國的殖利率不斷下降，他們剛剛宣布將 5 年期 LPL 下調 25 個基點等等。我們是否應該預期交通銀行的投資會出現更多減損？

So basically, I want to see if there is any onetime of events that trigger this impairment or if it is going to be a normalized part of the business. So I think in the statement, you clearly stated that they will have no impact on dividend and shareholders' return. I believe this is related to the $14 billion capital deduction, which you have already made on associate. I think that is primarily BoCom.

所以基本上，我想看看是否有任何一次性事件會觸發這種損害，或者它是否會成為業務的正常部分。所以我認為你在聲明中明確表示它們不會對股息和股東回報產生影響。我相信這與您已經對合夥人進行的 140 億美元資本扣除額有關。我認為主要是交通銀行。

But can you explain a bit of that mechanism? Because I think today's share price reaction is partly factoring in the kind of concern that if there is an ongoing impairment on BoCom, that will affect the company's ability to deliver shareholders' return. Yes.

但你能解釋一下這個機制嗎？因為我認為今天的股價反應在一定程度上考慮了這樣一種擔憂：如果交通銀行持續出現減值，將影響該公司交付股東回報的能力。是的。

Two excellent questions, and you're going to get 2 excellent answers from Georges.

這是兩個非常好的問題，您將從喬治那裡得到兩個非常好的答案。

Thank you, Katherine. So Katherine, taking them in the order you said the first mid-teens RoTE is excluding notable items. Therefore, it is excluding the gain on Canada. So your calculation is correct.

謝謝你，凱瑟琳。所以凱瑟琳，按照你所說的第一個中青少年 RoTE 的順序排列它們，排除了值得注意的項目。因此，它不包括加拿大的收益。所以你的計算是正確的。

In terms of NII and cost, there's a couple of things to share. We recognize the cost assessment. In terms of banking NII, we have given the guidance here. Just point to -- I mentioned it in my earlier speech, but I just point you that our banking NII sensitivity has reduced more than -- by more than half from the full year 2022 due to, among other parameters, our structural hedging activity. So therefore, the rate impact on our banking NII is reduced commensurately.

在 NII 和成本方面，有一些事情可以分享。我們認可成本評估。在銀行NII方面，我們在這裡給了指引。我在之前的演講中提到過，但我只是指出，由於我們的結構性對沖活動等因素，我們的銀行業 NII 敏感度比 2022 年全年降低了一半以上。因此，利率對我們銀行業NII的影響也隨之減少。

Equally, we do have some anticipation of volume growth if and when rates start increasing, which is now planned for H2, and this is why we have some positive outlook for H2. If rates decrease volume could pick up, subject to economic conditions, et cetera. But that's the assessment we have made today.

同樣，如果利率開始上升，我們確實預計銷量會增長，目前計劃在下半年進行，這就是為什麼我們對下半年有一些積極的展望。如果利率下降，交易量可能會增加，具體取決於經濟狀況等。但這就是我們今天所做的評估。

And then thirdly, on the non-rate sensitive earnings. I've called out transaction banking and went earlier. Between them, they constitute about 80% of our non-rate sensitive earnings. One has grown 5%, 23 to 22, and the other one has grown 7%. And therefore, we do feel there is momentum in both these areas for continued growth.

第三，關於非利率敏感收益。我已經打電話給交易銀行並提前去了。它們合計約占我們非利率敏感收益的 80%。一個成長了5%，23到22，另一個成長了7%。因此，我們確實認為這兩個領域都有持續成長的動力。

And I didn't talk about the residual 20%, but in the residual 20% capital market activities, for instance, is included. And again, in a different rate environment, we have grounds to believe this can also pick up. So yes, we are comfortable with the momentum we have in the revenue.

我沒有談論剩餘的20%，但在剩餘的20%中，例如資本市場活動是包括在內的。同樣，在不同的利率環境下，我們有理由相信這種情況也會有所改善。所以，是的，我們對收入的成長勢頭感到滿意。

Can I point you on one thing about cost? We called it out 5% for the 2024, has a flow-through impact from inflation in 2023. 2023 experienced high inflation. There is some flow-through, some adjustments, including wage inflation, which we anticipate to do in 2024. Based on current outlook of inflation, that parameter is easing as we look forward beyond '24 without giving you any guidance for '25. The inflationary component flow-through into '25 does look like easing from where we stand today, looking at '24 outlook for inflation.

我可以向您指出有關成本的一件事嗎？我們預計2024年為5%，對2023年的通膨有一定的流通影響。2023年經歷了高通膨。我們預計將在 2024 年進行一些流動和調整，包括薪資通膨。根據當前的通膨前景，隨著我們展望 24 年後，該參數正在放鬆，但不會為您提供 25 的任何指導。考慮到 24 年的通膨前景，流入 25 年的通膨成分看起來確實比我們今天的情況有所緩解。

If I move on to your second question about BoCom. So this is a -- we do talk about the value-in-use model. It's following the Hong Kong accounting standards, international accounting standards. Without boring you with the accounting details, the AR&A has many pages, which we can point you to that explain it. It feeds into parameters all in the -- essentially, in the public domain including macro data, other factors, including analyst comments, feeds into the model. But the model is not highly intuitive, but the outcome is the outcome, and we've been consistently applying it for umpteenth quarters now and therefore, we'll apply for Q4.

我繼續回答你關於交通銀行的第二個問題。所以這是一個——我們確實討論了使用價值模型。它遵循香港會計準則、國際會計準則。 AR&A 有許多頁面，不會讓您對會計細節感到厭煩，我們可以向您指出這些頁面的解釋。它輸入的所有參數——本質上是在公共領域，包括宏觀數據，其他因素，包括分析師評論，都輸入到模型中。但該模型並不是非常直觀，但結果就是結果，我們已經連續應用了無數個季度，因此，我們將應用第四季度。

It is very difficult to predict what the model will give us in Q1. We will take into account the information we receive over the course of Q1, and we will run the model as we do every quarter and consistently apply the outcome.

很難預測模型在第一季會為我們帶來什麼。我們將考慮在第一季收到的訊息，我們將像每個季度一樣運行模型並持續應用結果。

Finally, captive deduction. I think this is a very important point. Your math, Katherine is correct. There is about $14 billion sitting today in our regulatory capital deductions because they sit above our threshold. Therefore, you could legitimately assume that there is that much of buffer against any impairments we face in our financial holdings, BoCom being one of them. The other one is insurance. That's the 2 essentially.

最後，圈養扣除。我認為這是非常重要的一點。凱瑟琳，你的數學是正確的。目前，我們的監管資本扣除額約為 140 億美元，因為它們高於我們的門檻。因此，您可以合理地假設，對於我們的金融資產所面臨的任何減值，都有足夠的緩衝，交通銀行就是其中之一。另外一個就是保險。本質上就是2。

And therefore, you can legitimately assume that the compensation we would get from any hypothetical future impairment will be commensurate given the size of our threshold deductions at this stage. Yes.

因此，您可以合理地假設，我們從任何假設的未來減損中獲得的補償將與現階段我們的閾值扣除規模相稱。是的。

So he did give you 2 excellent answers. Thank you. Thanks, Georges. Our next question, please.

所以他確實給了你兩個很好的答案。謝謝。謝謝，喬治。請我們下一個問題。

Our next question comes from Joseph Dickerson at Jefferies. Joseph, we cannot hear you.

我們的下一個問題來自傑富瑞集團的約瑟夫·迪克森。約瑟夫，我們聽不到你的聲音。

Sorry about that. Just cutting to the chase on the -- Can you hear me?

對於那個很抱歉。直接切入正題——你聽得到我說話嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Yes. So just cutting to the chase on some of the questions that have come through on the NII guide. I think you can probably get a sense that there's some reasonable confusion about what the message is for the 2024 baseline. If we work back from your kind of clean mid-teens ROE, you've given us some guidance on cost, you've given us some guidance on credit. It's kind of getting into a baseline revenue number of about $64 billion, in consensus is $63.5 billion or thereabouts. Are you comfortable with that consensus number? Are you seeking to change that with this guide? So that is question number 1.

是的。那麼，我們就切入正題，回答 NII 指南中出現的一些問題。我認為您可能會感覺到，對於 2024 年基線的資訊存在一些合理的混淆。如果我們從你那種乾淨的十幾歲左右的股本回報率出發，你給了我們一些關於成本的指導，你給了我們一些關於信用的指導。基準收入數字約為 640 億美元，一致認為是 635 億美元左右。您對這個共識數字感到滿意嗎？您想透過本指南改變這一現狀嗎？這是第一個問題。

And question number 2 is, why the focus on banking NII versus total NII, because it's going to be as rates come down a lot of moving parts on the trading book funding cost dynamic because, indeed, if I look at your annual report, you've actually got a benefit coming through in the [USD] bucket from rates falling in terms of the aggregate NII. So I guess why are you trying to distinguish between those 2 conceptually for us? Because again, it's creating a fair amount of confusion with investors.

問題 2 是，為什麼專注於銀行 NII 而非總 NII，因為隨著利率下降，交易帳簿融資成本動態中的許多變動部分將會發生變化，因為事實上，如果我查看您的年度報告，您會發現實際上，[美元] 受益於總NII 利率的下降。所以我想你為什麼要在概念上為我們區分這兩者呢？因為這又給投資者帶來了相當多的困惑。

Georges?

喬治？

Joseph, yes, so I recognize your arithmetics. And yes, I agree with your arithmetics. This being said, I cannot give you guidance on total revenue. Otherwise, I'll be giving you guidance on our full profitability. But we recognize your arithmetics.

約瑟夫，是的，所以我認得你的算術。是的，我同意你的算術。話雖如此，我無法為您提供有關總收入的指導。否則，我將為您提供有關我們全部盈利能力的指導。但我們認可你的算術。

A couple of things just to highlight if you want to for your consideration. The first one is our guidance for banking NII is not $41 billion, it's at least $41 billion, factoring in elements of uncertainty that I called out earlier, that's for full year 2024. You do have the building blocks for cost and for ECL.

如果您願意的話，有幾件事需要強調一下，以供您考慮。第一個是我們對銀行業 NII 的指導不是 410 億美元，而是至少 410 億美元，考慮到我之前指出的不確定因素，即 2024 年全年。你確實有成本和 ECL 的基礎。

And then the residual part, if you want, of our earnings story is the non-NII component, excluding the gains from Canada. And as I said earlier, about 80% of it is generated from transaction banking and wealth, both of which do have momentum, both of which are areas where we continue investing both in terms of digital capabilities and client servicing and in terms of net new invested assets. And we are excited about the potential of these 2 businesses, and we believe our meetings RoTE is not based on unreasonable growth in these areas. It's based on momentum growth in these areas.

然後，如果你願意的話，我們獲利故事的剩餘部分是非NII 部分，不包括加拿大的收益。正如我之前所說，其中約 80% 來自交易銀行和財富，這兩個領域確實都有發展勢頭，這兩個領域都是我們在數位能力和客戶服務以及淨新增業務方面繼續投資的領域。投資資產。我們對這兩項業務的潛力感到興奮，我們相信我們的 RoTE 會議並不是基於這些領域的不合理成長。它基於這些領域的成長勢頭。

Maybe I can point you to our net new invested assets, $84 billion for the year, up from $80 billion last year, up from $64 billion the year before. So clearly, we're acquiring new assets. But then equally, as you've seen, Asset Management and Private Banking grew double-digit percentage points. That's also partly due to the valuation because our AUM is also increasing, because the underlying valuation is improving, which is, therefore, a generator of fees commensurately, subject to market conditions as we go forward.

也許我可以向您介紹我們今年的淨新增投資資產為 840 億美元，高於去年的 800 億美元，高於前一年的 640 億美元。很明顯，我們正在收購新資產。但同樣，正如您所看到的，資產管理和私人銀行業務成長了兩位數百分點。這在一定程度上也是由於估值，因為我們的資產管理規模也在增加，因為基礎估值正在改善，因此，隨著我們前進，這將相應地產生費用，並受到市場條件的影響。

I think if there's any more questions, maybe we get the IR team to just work with you after the call.

我想如果還有其他問題，也許我們會讓 IR 團隊在電話會議後與您合作。

Just on your second point, so we're guiding -- we would like to move to banking NII guidance. We recognized last year, we have moved from NII into a dual guidance of NII and funding cost of the trading book. We think it is much simpler to look at our overall rate sensitive earnings through banking NII lens.

關於你的第二點，我們正在指導——我們希望轉向銀行業國家資訊基礎設施指導。去年我們意識到，我們已經從NII轉變為NII和交易帳戶融資成本的雙重指引。我們認為，透過銀行 NII 視角來審視我們的整體利率敏感收益要簡單得多。

They kind of shift from one to the other, which is zero-sum game. So it moves from one to the other is reflective of business decisions as regards how much of our funding we would want to give to the trading book based on various parameters, including opportunities in the trading book as well as opportunities for loan growth. And we would think that it would be too noisy if we have to really manage both on a separate basis.

他們從一種轉向另一種，這是零和遊戲。因此，它從一種轉移到另一個反映了業務決策，即我們希望根據各種參數向交易帳戶提供多少資金，包括交易帳戶中的機會以及貸款成長的機會。我們會認為，如果我們必須真正單獨管理兩者，那就太吵了。

Thank you. Next question, please.

謝謝。請下一個問題。

Our next question comes from Benjamin Toms at RBC.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行的本傑明·湯姆斯。

Firstly, on cost of risk. In relation to your guidance of 40 basis points, is there still a plausible downside to this guidance? Or does the 40 basis points encapsulate that plausible downside?

首先，關於風險成本。相對於 40 個基點的指導，該指導是否仍有可能的下行趨勢？或者 40 個基點是否包含了這種合理的下行趨勢？

And secondly, on loan growth, I know you're cautious on loan growth in the first half of 2024. Do you expect growth to pick up in half 2, but 2024 as a whole, can you just confirm that you expect net growth in the balance sheet? It sounds like you do because you earlier described volumes and a potential tailwind to NII. And could you narrow down how much lending we should expect for growth for this year?

其次，關於貸款成長，我知道您對2024 年上半年的貸款成長持謹慎態度。您是否預計2024 年下半年成長會加快，但2024 年全年，您能否確認您預計2024 年上半年的淨成長資產負債表？聽起來你確實是這麼做的，因為你之前描述了 NII 的交易量和潛在的推動力。您能否縮小我們預計今年將成長的貸款金額？

Georges, do you want to take both of those?

喬治，你想兩個都拿嗎？

Sure. Thank you, Benjamin. So our cost of risk of 40 basis points encapsulates everything we currently foresee in our balance sheet. We have not communicated a further plausible downside on the China commercial real estate portfolio booked in Hong Kong, because we believe at this stage that, number one, we're well provisioned for this portfolio afterwards -- after the provisioning that's taken place last year. And number two, we also have less concerns going forwards on our residual exposure in that portfolio.

當然。謝謝你，班傑明。因此，我們 40 個基點的風險成本涵蓋了我們目前在資產負債表中預見的一切。我們還沒有就在香港預訂的中國商業房地產投資組合的進一步可能的下行情況進行溝通，因為我們認為，在現階段，第一，我們在去年進行了撥備之後，為該投資組合做好了充分的撥備。 。第二，我們對該投資組合的剩餘風險敞口的擔憂也減少了。

I can point you to our exposure is now at $6.2 billion, that's down $3.1 billion from full year '22. So therefore, we do not -- we have reduced level of concern. I can walk you through, if needed, the -- how well ECL positioning is in this portfolio but we're comfortable. No additional concerns than we caught out last year.

我可以向您指出，我們的風險敞口目前為 62 億美元，比 22 年全年減少了 31 億美元。因此，我們沒有降低擔憂程度。如果需要的話，我可以向您介紹 ECL 在這個投資組合中的定位有多好，但我們對此感到滿意。與我們去年發現的情況相比，沒有其他問題。

On the loan growth, yes, our expectations is that as economic conditions continue improving and the interest rate environment becomes more supportive, we would expect to see loan growth. We continue to guide on a medium-term basis to mid-single-digit percentage points loan growth and balance sheet growth. It's very difficult to forecast what H2 will look like, but that is part of our projections.

關於貸款成長，是的，我們的預期是，隨著經濟狀況持續改善和利率環境變得更加有利，我們預計會看到貸款成長。我們繼續在中期指導貸款成長和資產負債表成長達到中個位數百分點。很難預測下半年會是什麼樣子，但這是我們預測的一部分。

So I think our view is given the shift in the interest rate cycle and the shift in inflation, we'll start to see more economic confidence or business confidence, consumer confidence in the second half. We're not expecting significant growth in the balance sheet in the first half. If you start to see that kick in the second half, you're unlikely to see full year mid-single-digit growth in '24. You're going to see a proportion of that start to kick in, in the second half of the year. And then you'll see it kicking in more strongly in '25 and beyond. So I think in your modeling, you're probably looking at limited growth in the first half, growth starting to come back in the second half.

因此，我認為我們的觀點是，考慮到利率週期的轉變和通膨的轉變，我們將在下半年開始看到更多的經濟信心或商業信心、消費者信心。我們預計上半年資產負債表不會大幅成長。如果你在下半年開始看到這種勢頭，那麼你不太可能在 24 年全年看到個位數的中位數成長。你會看到其中一部分在今年下半年開始發揮作用。然後你會看到它在 25 年及以後更加強勁地發揮作用。因此，我認為在您的模型中，您可能會看到上半年的成長有限，下半年開始恢復成長。

Our next question comes from Robert Noble at Deutsche.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的羅伯特·諾貝爾。

What was the size of the hedge last year? So how much is it that ramped up this year? And can you give us an idea of what the currency mix of the hedges and whether there's any duration differences between those currencies as well?

去年樹籬的規模是多少？那麼今年的漲幅是多少呢？您能否向我們介紹一下對沖的貨幣組合以及這些貨幣之間是否存在久期差異？

Secondly, what exactly is in the quarter, the cash flow hedge reclassification, the impact it had from transferring from NII to non-NII. What exactly was that?

其次，本季具體情況如何，現金流量對沖重新分類，以及從NII轉移到非NII的影響。那到底是什麼？

And then lastly, the timing of the special dividend of the Canada sale, will it come with Q1 results if the deal is announced prior to release? Or is it not linked to the results down? That's all.

最後，加拿大出售特別股息的時間，如果交易在發布之前宣布，是否會與第一季業績一起出現？還是說它與結果沒有掛鉤？就這樣。

Okay. Georges?

好的。喬治？

So Robert, we've added about north of $80 billion to our hedge this year in terms of bond notional a little bit more in terms of other derivative notional. And that's on top of $80 billion we've added over Q4 and starting in Q3 in 2022. So that should give you an idea of also what is the quantum we could reasonably do in 2024 if the market conditions remain supportive for the hedge.

羅伯特，今年我們在名義債券方面增加了約 800 億美元的對沖資金，在其他名義衍生性商品方面則多了一點。這是我們在第四季和2022 年第三季開始增加的800 億美元的基礎上。因此，這應該能讓您了解，如果市場條件仍然支持對沖，我們在2024 年可以合理採取的措施是多少。

In terms of duration, I mean, the kind of -- the obvious one to call out is we can certainly hedge on our weighted average life for slightly longer currencies such as the pound, the U.S. dollar and some extent, the euro. We have an inability to hedge in any reasonable size or shape and this is due to structural market, our Hong Kong dollar exposure. So our Hong Kong dollar exposure hedge would remain much lower. And therefore, our exposure in Hong Kong dollar would remain more sensitive to the rate outlook compared to the other currencies.

就期限而言，我的意思是，顯而易見的是，我們當然可以對英鎊、美元以及某種程度上歐元等稍長貨幣的加權平均壽命進行對沖。我們無法以任何合理的規模或形式進行對沖，這是由於結構性市場以及我們的港元風險所致。因此，我們的港元風險對沖仍將低得多。因此，與其他貨幣相比，我們的港幣風險對利率前景仍然更加敏感。

In terms of Canada sale, you could expect in Q1, subject to completion, which is now I believe -- which is now planned to be -- on track to be by the end of Q1. We would expect to see a jump of 1.2%, 1.3% in our CET1 ratio. The special dividend that which we're committed to consider would happen afterwards. Our best estimate is H1, but frankly, afterwards as soon as we can subject to all necessary approvals.

就加拿大銷售而言，您可以預期在第一季完成，現在我相信（現在計劃完成）預計將在第一季末完成。我們預計我們的 CET1 比率將躍升 1.2%、1.3%。我們承諾考慮的特別股利將在之後發放。我們最好的估計是 H1，但坦白說，之後一旦我們能夠獲得所有必要的批准。

And that will drop the CET1 by about 0.5, with a result in net of around 0.8 in our CET1 after the dividend. We will update you at the Q1 results about the special dividend considerations.

這將使 CET1 下降約 0.5，股息後我們的 CET1 淨值下降約 0.8。我們將在第一季業績中向您更新有關特別股息考慮因素的資訊。

Yes. It's probably not possible to close at the end of March and declare in the same quarter just for accounting reasons. So it's likely to be closed at the end of Q1 and probably declare Q2 and then pay following that. That's likely to be the accounting requirement just to get the books closed for Q1 and then declaring Q2 is the most likely outcome.

是的。僅出於會計原因，可能無法在 3 月底結束並在同一季度申報。因此，它可能會在第一季末關閉，並可能宣布第二季度，然後再付款。這可能是會計要求，只是為了關閉第一季的帳簿，然後宣布第二季是最有可能的結果。

Sorry, declare in Q2, not with Q2 results?

抱歉，在 Q2 中聲明，而不是在 Q2 結果中聲明？

Probably with Q2 results.

可能是第二季的結果。

Right. So pay in Q3?

正確的。那麼在第三季付款嗎？

It's our intent to do it as soon as we can. I can take you through the process, but there is a process we have to go through and the time lines will need to just flow through. But we'll confirm the timing at the 1Q results.

我們的目的是盡快做到這一點。我可以引導您完成整個過程，但是我們必須經歷一個過程，並且時間軸需要順利通過。但我們將在第一季的結果中確認時間。

All right. There was just that 1 little question, what the cash flow hedge reclassification in the quarter.

好的。只有一個小問題，即本季現金流量對沖重新分類是什麼。

Sorry, yes, that reclassification is an area in reporting. It's related to 1 geography where some of our cash flow hedges were booked wrongly between NII and non-NII and we've done this correction. It is -- it has affected 1 jurisdiction. The amount is a full year amount. So I wouldn't -- the $0.3 billion charge we've taken reflects a full year correction of which around 1/4 relate to -- actually the fourth quarter, the rest is a catch-up for the first 3 quarters of the year.

抱歉，是的，重新分類是報告中的一個領域。這與 1 個地區有關，在該地區，我們的一些現金流對沖在 NII 和非 NII 之間的記錄錯誤，我們已進行了此更正。它已經影響了 1 個司法管轄區。該金額為全年金額。所以我不會——我們收取的 3 億美元費用反映了全年的調整，其中大約 1/4 與——實際上是第四季度有關，其餘的是今年前三個季度的追趕。

Sorry, just to be clear, Robert, the total income is not affected. This is just a reclassification of income from 1 line item to another line item.

抱歉，羅伯特，需要澄清的是，總收入不受影響。這只是將收入從一個行項目重新分類到另一個行項目。

Next question, please.

請下一個問題。

Alastair?

阿拉斯泰爾？

Alastair Warr from Autonomous. Just a quick question on the ECL charges and things are subsided a bit on the China property side. Obviously, nice for you guys to see, but some a few crept is popping up in Mexico, is that something you characterize the cycle stuff that might be going somewhere from here, we need to keep an eye on or something a little more one-off?

來自 Autonomous 的阿拉斯泰爾·瓦爾 (Alastair Warr)。簡單問一個關於預期信用損失費用的問題，中國房地產的情況有所緩和。顯然，很高興你們能看到，但墨西哥正在出現一些悄然出現的情況，這是您所描述的自行車的特徵，這些東西可能會從這裡發展到某個地方，我們需要密切關注，或者更多的東西——離開？

So the one-off -- the -- sorry, the Mexico ECL related to an increase in our activity, specifically in unsecured lending. It's a feature of that jurisdiction where margins are very healthy, but the ECL coverage or the ECL charge tend to be a bit higher. It will depend on our activity, but we expect to run at a slightly higher activity in unsecured lending among other in Mexico than we were before. So I wouldn't look at it as a one-off, but obviously, it will depend on the cycle.

因此，一次性的——抱歉，墨西哥 ECL 與我們活動的增加有關，特別是在無擔保貸款方面。這是該司法管轄區的一個特點，利潤率非常健康，但 ECL 覆蓋範圍或 ECL 費用往往要高一些。這將取決於我們的活動，但我們預計墨西哥的無擔保貸款等活動將比以前略高。因此，我不會將其視為一次性的，但顯然，這將取決於週期。

But it's a function of doing business and growing the business as opposed to a function of a historic problem materialize.

但這是開展業務和發展業務的功能，而不是解決歷史問題的功能。

Next question, please.

請下一個問題。

Our next question comes from Perlie Mong at KBW.

我們的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Perlie Mong。

Just a couple. And I guess the first one is cost. And just what can you do with cost in the falling rate environment because you've talked about management actions. I guess the reason I'm asking is because this year, I believe all in is about 7% year-on-year. And of course, it includes a lot of one-offs like levies in this quarter and SVB earlier in the year. But on the basis that it crept up from plus 2% year-on-year, which is, I think, the first when you talked about the '23 guidance to the end result being something like 6%, 7%. And just wondering what levers do you have in your sort of cost management action pocket to combat costs if revenue were to disappoint? So that's number one.

只是一對。我想第一個是成本。在利率下降的環境中，您可以如何處理成本，因為您已經談到了管理行動。我想我問這個問題的原因是因為今年我相信總的年成長率約為7%。當然，其中包括許多一次性費用，例如本季的徵稅和今年稍早的 SVB。但其基礎是同比增長 2%，我認為這是您談到 23 年指導最終結果約為 6%、7% 時的第一個。只是想知道，如果收入令人失望，您的成本管理行動口袋裡有什麼槓桿來對抗成本？所以這是第一。

And the second question is, I think, we all talked a lot about what might happen to revenues in various rate environments. But -- and also just thank you for the disclosures on the structural hedge. But I guess stepping back a little bit from that. Just a couple of clarifications. So in a falling rate environment, how would you expect things like customer behavior to respond? So things like deposit mix shift like in Hong Kong. So I guess the mix shift towards term happened quite a lot faster in Hong Kong versus the U.K. on the way up and it's still ongoing from the disclosures today.

我認為第二個問題是，我們都討論了很多關於不同費率環境下收入可能發生的情況。但是，也要感謝您對結構性對沖的揭露。但我想稍微退一步。只是一些澄清。那麼，在利率下降的環境下，您預期客戶行為等方面會如何反應？因此，像香港一樣，存款組合等情況也發生了變化。因此，我認為香港的混合轉向期限比英國的成長要快得多，並且從今天的披露來看，這種轉變仍在繼續。

So if rates were to turn, would you expect that flip back to be pretty quick? Or based on a pretty high rate environment or do you still expect to make sure to continue? So I think you talked about things like capital markets might outperform in a falling rate environment. So I guess, on an underlying basis, just how do you see that because capital markets and loan growth, et cetera, I guess a lot of it is also to do with the underlying GDP as well. And there's still a lot of uncertainty sort of on the horizon. So even if rates were to come down, just how quickly do you think these benefits can come through?

因此，如果利率發生轉變，您是否認為這種轉變會很快？或者基於相當高的利率環境，或者您仍然希望確保繼續下去？所以我認為你談到了資本市場在利率下降的環境下可能表現出色等問題。所以我想，從根本上來說，你如何看待這一點，因為資本市場和貸款成長等，我想這很大程度上也與潛在的 GDP 有關。而且仍然存在著許多不確定性。因此，即使利率下降，您認為這些好處能多快體現出來？

Okay. We'll tackle the cost first and then maybe we come to the revenue second, and I'll do a few introductory comments on how I see revenues.

好的。我們將首先解決成本問題，然後也許我們會討論收入問題，我將就我如何看待收入做一些介紹性評論。

On costs, Georges, do you want to just do a quick analysis of reported costs '23 versus '22 target basis and then reported '23 to '24 target basis? And I might just add a few comments at the end of that on cost levers the way I look at it. But Georges?

關於成本，Georges，您是否只想對「23 年」與「22 年」目標基礎上報告的成本進行快速分析，然後報告「23 年至」24 年目標基礎上的成本？我可能會在最後添加一些關於我對成本槓桿的看法。但是喬治？

Good. Yes. Thanks. So on a reported basis, '23 to '22, we were down 1%. So the growth against our target of 6% also is reflective of the fact that a lot of the restructuring costs we've taken in 2022 did not repeat. We've guided how the costs have increased from our initial 3% where we included severance into the 6%. Obviously, the last percent this quarter was unexpected.

好的。是的。謝謝。因此，根據報告，23 年至 22 年，我們下降了 1%。因此，相對於我們 6% 的目標的成長也反映了這樣一個事實：我們在 2022 年採取的許多重組成本並沒有重複。我們指導了成本如何從最初的 3%（其中包括遣散費）增加到 6%。顯然，本季最後一個百分比是出乎意料的。

The rules for the FDIC special assessment came in November. The earlier draft rules we've seen in September indicated we would be incurring that cost in '24 and '25, but the rules that came in November had us to have to -- have a different accounting treatment and accelerate all that as did all other banks who were subject to the FDIC special assessment.

FDIC 特別評估規則於 11 月出台。我們在 9 月看到的早期規則草案表明，我們將在 24 年和 25 年承擔該成本，但 11 月的規則要求我們必須採用不同的會計處理方式並加快所有這一切其他接受FDIC 特別評估的銀行。

So I just want to call it out that this one was a particular event we called out. We -- as we look at going forward for '24, we're looking at a 5% on a target basis growth. This is excluding the cost reduction we would get from exiting the French retail business and the Canada business.

所以我只想指出，這是我們呼籲的一個特殊事件。當我們展望 24 年的前景時，我們的目標是實現 5% 的成長。這不包括我們退出法國零售業務和加拿大業務所帶來的成本降低。

Between the 2 of them, we will be exiting on an annual basis and equivalent to $1 billion, just shy of that, which is around 3%. That would be a reduction in cost of 3%, but that is excluded from the way we're managing our target basis.

兩者之間，我們每年將退出相當於 10 億美元，略低於這個數字，即 3% 左右。這將意味著成本降低 3%，但這不包括在我們管理目標基礎的方式中。

Just explaining how we're coming up with this cost, and then Noel can talk you through the levers to manage our cost. So first, there is this flow-through inflation from '23. There is some wage adjustments we need to take into account for '24 based on the flow-through inflation from '23. That component, we feel is easing and hopefully, and the outlook of inflation will ease as we go out of '24 into the future.

只需解釋我們如何計算此成本，然後諾埃爾就可以向您介紹管理我們成本的槓桿。首先，是從 23 年開始的流通通膨。根據 23 年以來的流通通貨膨脹，我們需要考慮 24 年的一些薪資調整。我們認為，這一因素正在緩解，並且希望隨著 24 世紀的未來，通膨前景將會緩解。

There is continued spend in technology and continued investment in some of the growth areas -- organic growth areas. That's particularly true in Wealth. And those spending are partly offset by a number of cost management actions, some of which we have taken already such as the severance program, which will have a flow-through benefit into '24, and other actions we're planning to take.

在一些成長領域—有機成長領域，我們持續進行技術支出和持續投資。在財富領域尤其如此。這些支出部分被一系列成本管理行動所抵消，其中一些行動我們已經採取，例如遣散計劃，該計劃將在 24 世紀產生流動效益，以及我們計劃採取的其他行動。

Just before Noel talks to levers, we're looking at cost as in growth on a target basis in dollar numbers. We're not looking at our cost efficiency ratio basis. There may be fluctuation to our revenue, but frankly, in a year like '23, our CER has dropped from 65% in '22 to 48%. So we will tolerate some volatility on the CER as long as we're managing our cost and the spend, dollar basis. But, Noel...

就在諾埃爾談論槓桿之前，我們將成本視為以美元數字為基礎的目標成長。我們沒有考慮我們的成本效率比基礎。我們的收入可能會有波動，但坦白說，在像23年這樣的年份，我們的CER已經從22年的65%下降到48%。因此，只要我們能夠管理成本和支出（以美元為基礎），我們就會容忍核證減排量的一些波動。但是，諾埃爾…

And I know this is an important topic, and let me reiterate upfront. We remain committed to cost discipline. The question is how are we achieving cost discipline. We obviously look for efficiencies in the existing organization. We invest in tech to drive efficiencies in our processing costs, and we're continuing to do that.

我知道這是一個重要的主題，讓我預先重申。我們仍然致力於成本控制。問題是我們如何實現成本控制。顯然，我們尋求現有組織的效率。我們投資技術來提高處理成本的效率，並且我們將繼續這樣做。

We invest in simplification of the portfolio, closing down businesses organically, exiting costs organically. But we're also exiting costs through M&A. And in our target basis, we adjust for that. But I don't want you to lose sight. We have exited -- we'll be exiting $1 billion of cost in 2024 as a function of M&A decisions. Portfolio choices made for good strategic reasons. $300 million of that was the exit of our French retail business. It's a business that was losing money. So we've exited $300 million of costs by selling and it's going to be profit accretive because that business was a loss-making business.

我們投資於簡化投資組合、有機地關閉業務、有機地退出成本。但我們也透過併購來降低成本。在我們的目標基礎上，我們會對此進行調整。但我不想讓你失去視線。我們已經退出——根據併購決策，我們將在 2024 年退出 10 億美元的成本。出於良好的策略原因而做出的投資組合選擇。其中 3 億美元是我們法國零售業務的退出。這是一家虧損的企業。因此，我們透過出售減少了 3 億美元的成本，並將增加利潤，因為該業務是一項虧損業務。

We've exited $800 million of costs in Canada through selling. We hope to by the end of Q1, not tempting fate. Why are we doing it? Because that business in our hands was probably valued at around 1x book, and we were able to generate 2.5x book as over 2.5x book. We sold it because it was worth more to somebody else than to us. And we're redistributing the proceeds of that to our shareholders because we thought it was the right answer for our shareholders.

我們透過銷售在加拿大節省了 8 億美元的成本。我們希望在第一季末之前，而不是誘惑命運。我們為什麼要這樣做？因為我們手中的業務的價值可能約為 1 倍圖書，而我們能夠產生 2.5 倍圖書作為超過 2.5 倍圖書。我們賣掉它是因為它對別人來說比對我們更有價值。我們正在將收益重新分配給我們的股東，因為我們認為這對我們的股東來說是正確的答案。

So we do internally generated cost efficiency and externally generated cost efficiency for good strategic reasons, and we'll continue to pull those levers.

因此，我們出於良好的策略原因，實現內部產生的成本效率和外部產生的成本效率，並且我們將繼續拉動這些槓桿。

Now the other thing is we are -- we do believe an organization like us with the growth opportunities we have, we should invest. And we made a decision last year on our original cost target of 3% to actually move it up to 4% because we were continuing to invest in tech. And in tech today as part of our overall cost base is now around 22%.

現在另一件事是我們——我們確實相信像我們這樣擁有成長機會的組織，我們應該投資。去年，我們決定將原來 3% 的成本目標實際提高到 4%，因為我們繼續投資於技術。在當今的科技領域，我們整體成本基礎的一部分現在約為 22%。

When I took over 4 years ago, tech as a percent of our cost base was 16%. So we're trying to remain disciplined on cost and change the nature of the cost to be a much more strategic cost component in driving future enhancements for customer propositions and efficiencies. So that's sort of the thinking we have.

當我 4 年前接任時，科技占我們成本基礎的百分比為 16%。因此，我們正在努力保持成本紀律，並改變成本的性質，使其成為更具策略性的成本組成部分，以推動未來增強客戶主張和效率。這就是我們的想法。

You have our absolute commitment, both myself and Georges and the management teams. We will keep cost discipline. We'll invest and save at the same time. We have to acknowledge the flow-through of inflation. But the other component we made a decision on in '23, given the very, very strong performance the business had. We thought it was right to go from 4% to 5% by topping up the variable pay pool by an extra percent.

我、喬治以及管理團隊都對您做了絕對的承諾。我們將遵守成本紀律。我們將同時投資和儲蓄。我們必須承認通貨膨脹的流動。但鑑於該業務的表現非常非常強勁，我們在 23 年做出了另一個決定。我們認為透過將可變薪酬池額外增加一個百分點來從 4% 升至 5% 是正確的。

We thought that was the right decision for our people. So we think it's the right cost decision, but it has inflated our cost compared to our original target of 3%. But I think we had to do the right thing by our people on that. And then the final 1% taking us to the 6% number you talked about was unexpected. When we talked to you in Q3, we didn't expect that final 1% to come through for FDIC and bank levies.

我們認為這對我們的員工來說是正確的決定。因此，我們認為這是正確的成本決策，但與我們最初 3% 的目標相比，它增加了我們的成本。但我認為我們的員工必須在這方面做正確的事。然後最後的 1% 將我們帶到了你所說的 6% 這個數字是出乎意料的。當我們在第三季與您交談時，我們沒想到最後 1% 的 FDIC 和銀行稅會被徵收。

The FDIC is probably a timing issue. It was going to come through in '24 or '25, but it actually surprisingly came through in the final quarter of the year. So you've got our commitment or remain tight with cost.

FDIC 可能是時間問題。它本來要在 24 年或 25 年實現，但實際上令人驚訝的是在今年最後一個季度實現了。因此，您已經得到了我們的承諾，或保持嚴格的成本控制。

Now let's now turn to revenues. And let me maybe again, decompose how we think about revenue growth outside of NII or interest income.

現在讓我們轉向收入。讓我再次分解我們如何看待國家資訊基礎設施或利息收入以外的收入成長。

Clearly, the great work that Georges and the team have done on hedging and further structural hedges we put in place and the extra duration is a mitigant to the downside. I look at the opportunity on the upside in 2 components. One is our core USP of International Banking. We have within our franchise, clients who operate in more countries than we currently bank them, be they personal clients or corporate clients.

顯然，喬治和團隊在對沖方面所做的出色工作以及我們實施的進一步結構性對沖以及額外的期限都緩解了下行風險。我從兩個方面來看上行機會。一是我們國際銀行業務的核心 USP。在我們的特許經營範圍內，我們的客戶在比我們目前銀行業務更多的國家/地區開展業務，無論是個人客戶還是企業客戶。

We still have huge amounts of untapped opportunity to further penetrate our client base. And every time you saw in the revenue multipliers, we take a client to multiple jurisdictions, a revenue multiplier of 5x domestic revenue in Wholesale Banking, 3x domestic revenue in retail banking. That's an internal generated revenue opportunity, not dependent on GDP. That's in our hands.

我們仍然有大量未開發的機會來進一步滲透我們的客戶群。每次您看到收入乘數時，我們都會將客戶帶到多個司法管轄區，批發銀行業務的收入乘數為國內收入的 5 倍，零售銀行業務的收入乘數為國內收入的 3 倍。這是一個內部產生的收入機會，不依賴 GDP。那是在我們手中。

The second revenue opportunity you talked about in your analysis is countercyclical. And I do believe -- I've been around 37 years, so I've seen some cycles. And I do believe lower inflation leads to lower interest rates, lower interest rates lead to a pickup in economic activity normally for the lag effect. And I do believe that pickup will have a positive impact on capital market activity in our Global Banking and Markets business. I think it will have a big and positive impact on demand for corporate lending and personal lending in our wholesale and retail business, lag effect, as I've talked about.

您在分析中談到的第二個收入機會是反週期的。我確實相信——我已經 37 歲了，所以我已經看到了一些週期。我確實相信較低的通膨會導致較低的利率，較低的利率通常會因滯後效應而導致經濟活動的回升。我確實相信，這種回升將對我們全球銀行和市場業務的資本市場活動產生正面影響。我認為這將對我們批發和零售業務中的企業貸款和個人貸款需求產生巨大而積極的影響，即滯後效應，正如我所談到的。

And thirdly, I think consumers will start to shift out of cash into invested assets, and that's a huge opportunity for our wealth business. And you've seen our track record on our ability to attract net new invested assets over the last 3 years, $84 billion, $80 billion, $64 billion. That's where we're very focused and a lot of our investment is going.

第三，我認為消費者將開始從現金轉向投資資產，這對我們的財富業務來說是一個巨大的機會。您已經看到了過去 3 年我們吸引淨新投資資產的能力記錄，分別為 840 億美元、800 億美元、640 億美元。這是我們非常關注的領域，我們投入了大量資金。

Now it's for us, the management team to deliver on that. So we know we got to deliver on tight costs and cost discipline, and we've got to deliver on revenue diversification.

現在輪到我們管理團隊來實現這個目標了。因此，我們知道我們必須實現嚴格的成本和成本紀律，並且我們必須實現收入多元化。

My final comment on this is I'm grateful that we've had 4 years of transformation because we now are through the majority of that transformation focus, majority, and we're now focused on that growth opportunity. And we're in a fortunate position that all of the hard work over the last 4 years has given us that platform for growth.

我對此的最後評論是，我很感激我們已經經歷了 4 年的轉型，因為我們現在已經完成了轉型的大部分重點，而且我們現在專注於成長機會。我們很幸運，過去 4 年的所有努力為我們提供了成長的平台。

So we have time for one last question, then I'll hand it back to you, Noel, if you want to make any concluding remarks. So our final question comes from Aman Rakkar at Barclays.

所以我們有時間回答最後一個問題，然後我會把它交還給你，諾埃爾，如果你想發表任何結論的話。我們的最後一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Aman Rakkar。

I have 2 broad questions. The first one is kind of split into 2. I've got a second question around GB&M. Sorry, sorry, capital return. First broad question, it's around fee income. The first part of it is, I'm a bit confused by your banking NII sensitivity.

我有兩個廣泛的問題。第一個問題分為 2 個。我有第二個問題是關於 GB&M 的。對不起，對不起，資本回報。第一個廣泛的問題是關於費用收入的。第一部分是，我對你們銀行 NII 的敏感度有點困惑。

You can see on Slide 34, $3.4 billion on 100 basis points rate cap. But the majority of that comes from non-banking -- sorry, non-NII. So can you help me there because I just don't understand that. I thought banking NII kind of stripped out the trading funding cost. So whatever color you can give us there.

您可以在幻燈片 34 上看到，100 個基點的利率上限為 34 億美元。但其中大部分來自非銀行業——抱歉，是非國家資訊基礎設施。那你能幫我嗎，因為我就是不懂。我認為銀行 NII 某種程度上消除了交易融資成本。所以無論你能給我們什麼顏色。

And the related question is that your outlook for fee income, more broadly, I get your messaging around wealth. Transaction banking is kind of demonstrating positive momentum. But can I ask you about the other big chunk of fee income, which is GB&M. And there's various moving parts there. I suspect that you think cyclically, it's not earning its full amount. But I also do note that Global FX has kind of been decent for a while. So can you give us your view on to what extent that business is operating at, below or ahead of kind of capacity? That was a kind of broad two-pronged question on fee income, believe it or not.

相關的問題是，你對費用收入的前景，更廣泛地說，我得到了你關於財富的資訊。交易銀行業務正在展現出積極的勢頭。但我可以問一下另一大塊費用收入嗎，即 GB&M。那裡有各種活動部件。我懷疑你會週期性地思考，它沒有賺到全額。但我也確實注意到，全球外匯已經有一段時間表現得很好。那麼，您能否向我們提供您對業務在何種程度上以低於、低於或超過某種產能營運的看法？不管你信不信，這是一個關於費用收入的廣泛的兩方面問題。

The second question was around your distribution, your approach to distribution that you're potentially phasing down the barrel of a slower volume growth in '24. And I'm interested in you're arguably then going to be more capital generative this year on still decent profits, and not a lot of balance sheet growth. How do you approach that? Do you kind of give us additional buybacks through the course of this year? Or do you kind of hold that powder dry for a bigger rebound in '25, to say?

第二個問題是關於你的分銷，你的分銷方法，你可能會在 24 年逐步減少銷量成長較慢的情況。我感興趣的是，今年你可能會在仍然可觀的利潤和資產負債表增長不多的情況下產生更多的資本。你如何處理這個問題？今年你們會給我們額外的回購嗎？或者說，你會保持這種狀態，等待 25 年更大的反彈？

Okay. I think, Georges, do you want to pick off those 3 points?

好的。我想，喬治，你想摘下這 3 分嗎？

Sure. Aman, so what historically we've been giving you is NII sensitivity. But as you know, there is a big component that is rate sensitive in our earnings, which doesn't sit in NII. It sits in non-NII under funding cost of the trading book. And what we've been doing, and hopefully, that slide was meant to clarify it, but I'm assuming now we have to take probably more offline with you to go through it.

當然。阿曼，所以歷史上我們一直為您提供的是 NII 敏感性。但如您所知，我們的收益中有一個對利率敏感的重要組成部分，它不屬於國家資訊基礎設施。它位於交易帳戶資金成本下的非國家資訊基礎設施中。我們一直在做的事情，希望這張投影片是為了澄清這一點，但我認為現在我們可能必須與您進行更多的線下合作才能完成它。

What we've been doing is showing the sensitivity of both the NII to date as well as the sensitivity of the funding cost of trading book to date. And then giving you the full sensitivity of banking NII to date because that would be a better representation of how sensitive our earnings are to date, and it will take away the noise that is created by ongoing commercial decisions on how much we've -- how much funds we provide the trading activity or take away from the trading activity in year.

我們一直在做的是顯示迄今為止 NII 的敏感性以及迄今為止交易帳戶融資成本的敏感性。然後為您提供迄今為止銀行業 NII 的全部敏感性，因為這將更好地代表我們迄今為止收益的敏感性，並且它將消除我們持續進行的商業決策所產生的噪音——一年中我們為交易活動提供了多少資金或從交易活動中提取了多少資金。

It kind of cleanses that information out because it's just giving you the total that is relevant for our overall earnings. That sensitivity has reduced by more than half over the year in part at least for 30%, 40% of it due to our structural hedging activity.

它在某種程度上清除了這些信息，因為它只是為您提供與我們整體收入相關的總額。由於我們的結構性對沖活動，這種敏感性在一年中下降了一半以上，部分至少有 30%、40%。

With regards the fee income, you mentioned FX having a good and decent income. A couple of things about GB&M to call out. First, the PBT of GB&M was more than 20% or 25% higher year-on-year. So clearly, a business that increases PBT. Its return on tangible equity has exceeded our cost of capital. It's something that has been not achieved for many years. It's above 12%. And to be also fair to GB&M, it's return tangible equity only increased by about 10% because there are some corporate center related adjustments, which has affected them.

關於手續費收入，您提到FX有良好且可觀的收入。關於 GB&M 有幾點要注意。首先，GB&M的PBT年增超過20%或25%。很明顯，這是一項增加 PBT 的業務。它的有形股本回報率已經超過了我們的資本成本。這是多年來都沒有達到的目標。已經超過12%了。公平地說，GB&M 的有形資產回報率只增加了 10% 左右，因為有一些與企業中心相關的調整，這對他們產生了影響。

Otherwise, the return on tangible equity could have followed the trend of PBT growth because their RWAs were down, and they could have seen close to 20%. And therefore, well above their cost of equity. So we're comfortable with how the business is continue to transform itself, focusing on their strength and adjusting their footprint, and that momentum continues.

否則，有形股本回報率可能會跟隨 PBT 成長的趨勢，因為它們的 RWA 下降，並且可能接近 20%。因此，遠高於他們的股本成本。因此，我們對業務如何繼續自我轉型、專注於自身實力並調整其足跡感到滿意，而且這種勢頭仍在繼續。

In terms of distribution, well, first, it remains our ambition to have a rolling series of share buybacks as long as our capital supports it and the outlook for capital does support it, but this remains subject to ongoing macroeconomic developments and regulatory approvals, et cetera.

在分配方面，首先，只要我們的資本支持並且資本前景確實支持，我們仍然有進行一系列滾動股票回購的雄心，但這仍然取決於宏觀經濟的持續發展和監管部門的批准等。等等。

And one thing to call out with regards our bolt-on acquisitions is when we look at an acquisition, obviously, the first parameter is making sure it's a strategic and accelerating growth area that we strategically want to grow. But the second parameter that we also use equally is that it is accretive compared to a share buyback. So we're making sure that when we go for a bolt-on acquisition, the investments is more accretive than the investment in buying our own shares. And this is -- this would be a disciplined measure to make sure we're doing M&A that is both strategic and accretive.

關於我們的補強收購，需要指出的一點是，當我們考慮收​​購時，顯然，第一個參數是確保它是我們策略上希望成長的策略和加速成長領域。但我們也同樣使用的第二個參數是，與股票回購相比，它具有增值性。因此，我們確保當我們進行補強收購時，投資比購買我們自己的股票更具增值性。這將是一項嚴格的措施，以確保我們進行的併購既具有策略性又具有增值性。

And finally, in terms of other parts of the distribution, 50% dividend payout ratio for 2024, which we reaffirmed. And then if you want to give a -- if you want to have a benchmark on where we would operate on a target basis, our CET1 ratio, it will be in the 14 to 14.5 range, which we reiterate, but we recognize we may not meet that target because we may be well above it for a few quarters in particular, thanks to Canada, but also to our own capital generation.

最後，就分配的其他部分而言，2024 年的股利支付率為 50%，我們重申了這一點。然後，如果你想給出一個關於我們在目標基礎上運營的基準，我們的 CET1 比率，它將在 14 到 14.5 的範圍內，我們重申這一點，但我們認識到我們可能會達不到這一目標，因為我們可能會在幾個季度遠高於該目標，特別是這要歸功於加拿大，也歸功於我們自己的資本創造。

And the pace at which we can get back down to that target is going to be dictated by 2 things: the capacity of the market to take buybacks; and second, other alternative uses of that capital to support growth. But I think it's fair to say there's going to be excess of our CET1 over our target range more in the near term because probably the capacity of the market to take the volume of buybacks that could be done.

我們回到該目標的速度將取決於兩件事：市場回購的能力；其次，利用該資本的其他替代用途來支持成長。但我認為可以公平地說，短期內我們的 CET1 將會超出我們的目標範圍，因為可能是市場有能力承擔可以進行的回購量。

Can I just clarify? So is it reasonable then to expect that -- is it reasonable to target year-on-year growth in GB&M, the fee income businesses in GB&M? Is it -- given those various moving parts, should we think about growth?

我可以澄清一下嗎？那麼，預期 GB&M 以及 GB&M 的費用收入業務實現年成長是否合理？考慮到這些不同的變化因素，我們是否應該考慮成長？

Yes, in the strategic area, certainly, I mean, the areas we called out such as foreign exchange such as payments, such as supporting trade, we do expect also growth. And as Noel mentioned earlier, in capital market activity, if and when rates come down, we see progress in this area of the fee income space. Clearly, GB&M has focused itself and the kind of the message is that in the areas where they're focusing strategically, yes. In the areas where they have exited or are downsizing, then this would be a non-strategic areas that they will continue doing downsizing.

是的，在策略領域，當然，我的意思是，我們呼籲的領域，例如外匯、支付、支持貿易，我們確實期望成長。正如諾埃爾之前提到的，在資本市場活動中，如果利率下降，我們就會看到費用收入領域的進展。顯然，GB&M 已經專注於自己，並且傳達的訊息是，在他們策略性關注的領域，是的。在他們已經退出或正在裁員的領域，那麼這將是他們將繼續進行裁員的非戰略領域。

Listen, I just wanted to say thank you all for joining. I also want to just say, look, I'm -- clearly, I'm really pleased that we've had a record profit year in 2023, and the best returns that we've had for a decade. Really pleased we were able to reward our loyal shareholders with $19 billion of capital returns to our shareholders in respect to 2023. This included the best full year dividend since 2008 and 3 share buybacks.

聽著，我只是想說謝謝大家的加入。我還想說，顯然，我真的很高興我們在 2023 年實現了創紀錄的利潤，並且獲得了十年來最好的回報。我們非常高興能夠在 2023 年為股東提供 190 億美元的資本回報，以回饋我們忠實的股東。這包括 2008 年以來最好的全年股息和 3 次股票回購。

We still expect to have substantial distribution capacity going forward. And we are committed to cost discipline. I want you in no doubt on that. We expect to have further opportunities to grow revenue, and we're very focused on it because we've come out of that 4-year transformation phase with a very strong focus on growth. We continue to target a mid-teens RoTE in 2024.

我們仍預計未來將擁有大量的分銷能力。我們致力於成本控制。我希望你對此毫無疑問。我們預計將有更多機會增加收入，並且我們非常關注它，因為我們已經結束了四年的轉型階段，並且非常注重成長。我們的目標是到 2024 年將 RoTE 提高到 15 左右。

And I just want to say thank you for joining us. And Neil, and the team are available should you need them. I hope to see many of you here in Hong Kong in April when we hold our inaugural Global Investment Summit. Looking forward to being back here at the end of March and for the Investment Summit in early April. Thank you all very much.

我只想說謝謝你加入我們。如果您需要，尼爾和他的團隊隨時為您服務。我希望四月我們在香港舉辦首屆全球投資高峰會時能見到你們中的許多人。期待三月底回到這裡並參加四月初的投資高峰會。非常感謝大家。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. You may now disconnect the call.

謝謝你們，女士們、先生們。您現在可以掛斷電話。