希爾頓酒店 (HLT) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Hilton Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Jill Slattery Chapman, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Development. You may begin.

早上好，歡迎來到希爾頓 2022 年第四季度和全年收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係和企業發展高級副總裁 Jill Slattery Chapman。你可以開始了。

Thank you, Chad. Welcome to Hilton's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings Call. Before we begin, we would like to remind you that our discussions this morning will include forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those indicated in the forward-looking statements, and forward-looking statements made today speak only to our expectations as of today. We undertake no obligation to update or revise these statements. For a discussion of some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ, please see the Risk Factors section of our most recently filed Form 10-K and first quarter 2022 10-Q.

謝謝你，乍得。歡迎來到希爾頓 2022 年第四季度和全年收益電話會議。在我們開始之前，我們想提醒您，我們今天上午的討論將包括前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中的結果存在重大差異，而今天做出的前瞻性陳述僅代表我們今天的預期。我們不承擔更新或修改這些聲明的義務。有關可能導致實際結果不同的一些因素的討論，請參閱我們最近提交的 10-K 表格和 2022 年第一季度 10-Q 的風險因素部分。

In addition, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures on this call. You can find reconciliations of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures discussed in today's call, in our earnings press release and on our website at ir.hilton.com. This morning, Chris Nassetta, our President and Chief Executive Officer, will provide an overview of the current operating environment and the company's outlook. Kevin Jacobs, our Chief Financial Officer and President, Global Development, will then review our fourth quarter and full year results and discuss our expectations for the year. Following their results, we'll be happy to take your questions. With that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Chris.

此外，我們將在本次電話會議上提及某些非 GAAP 財務指標。您可以在今天的電話會議、我們的收益新聞稿和我們的網站 ir.hilton.com 中找到非 GAAP 與 GAAP 財務指標的調節。今天上午，我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Chris Nassetta 將概述當前的經營環境和公司的前景。我們的首席財務官兼全球發展總裁 Kevin Jacobs 隨後將回顧我們的第四季度和全年業績，並討論我們對今年的預期。根據他們的結果，我們很樂意回答您的問題。有了這個，我很高興把電話轉給克里斯。

Thank you, Jill. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us today. We're happy to report a strong end of another year of continued growth. Together with our team members, owners and communities, we've navigated through the most challenging times our industry has experienced and are deep into recovery throughout the world. During the year, we continued investing in new innovations and partnerships that meet guests evolving needs and further strengthen our value proposition for Hilton Honors members and owners. We remain committed to delivering reliable and friendly experiences to our guests, and we continue to enhance our network through our strategic and disciplined approach to development, enabling us to serve even more guests across more destinations for any stay occasion they may have.

謝謝你，吉爾。大家早上好，感謝今天加入我們。我們很高興地報告又一年的持續增長強勁結束。我們與我們的團隊成員、所有者和社區一起，度過了我們行業經歷的最具挑戰性的時期，並在全球範圍內深入復甦。在這一年裡，我們繼續投資於新的創新和合作夥伴關係，以滿足客人不斷變化的需求，並進一步加強我們對希爾頓榮譽客會會員和業主的價值主張。我們始終致力於為我們的客人提供可靠和友好的體驗，並通過我們的戰略和紀律發展方法繼續加強我們的網絡，使我們能夠為更多目的地的更多客人提供任何住宿場合。

Our strategy drove strong performance for the year with systemized RevPAR up 42.5% versus 2021 and approximately 1% shy of 2019 levels. Both adjusted EBITDA and EPS surpassed our expectations and prior peaks with margins of roughly 69%, up more than 300 basis points year-over-year and more than 800 basis points over 2019 levels. Strong results and higher margins enabled us to generate the highest levels of free cash flow in our history and returned more than $1.7 billion to shareholders for the full year.

我們的戰略推動了今年的強勁表現，系統化的 RevPAR 比 2021 年增長了 42.5%，比 2019 年的水平低約 1%。調整後的 EBITDA 和 EPS 均超出了我們的預期和之前的峰值，利潤率約為 69%，同比增長超過 300 個基點，比 2019 年水平增長超過 800 個基點。強勁的業績和更高的利潤率使我們能夠產生歷史上最高水平的自由現金流，並在全年向股東返還超過 17 億美元。

Turning to results for the quarter. System-wide RevPAR grew 24.8% year-over-year, an increase 7.5% compared to 2019 with performance improving sequentially versus the third quarter. We saw continued progression across all segments with leisure business transient and group RevPAR all exceeding 2019 levels. System-wide occupancy reached 67%, up from the third quarter and just 3 points shy of prior peak levels. Overall rates remained robust, increasing 13% versus 2019 with all segments exceeding expectations.

轉向本季度的結果。全系統 RevPAR 同比增長 24.8%，與 2019 年相比增長 7.5%，與第三季度相比，業績環比有所改善。我們看到所有細分市場都在持續進步，休閒業務瞬態和集團 RevPAR 都超過了 2019 年的水平。全系統的入住率達到 67%，高於第三季度，僅比之前的峰值水平低 3 個百分點。總體利率保持強勁，與 2019 年相比增長 13%，所有細分市場均超出預期。

As expected, leisure trends remained strong throughout the quarter, with RevPAR surpassing 2019 levels by approximately 12%, modestly ahead of third quarter performance. Strong leisure transient demand continued to drive rates up in the high teens compared to 2019. Business transient RevPAR also continued to improve, with business travel up 3% versus 2019, nearly all industries saw continued recovery compared to the prior quarter. Small and medium-sized businesses remained an important and growing part of our business travel segment, accounting for roughly 85% of our segment mix and enhancing our overall resiliency.

正如預期的那樣，整個季度的休閒趨勢依然強勁，RevPAR 超過 2019 年水平約 12%，略高於第三季度的表現。與 2019 年相比，強勁的休閒短暫需求繼續推動高青少年的房價上漲。商務短暫 RevPAR 也繼續改善，商務旅行比 2019 年增長 3%，與上一季度相比，幾乎所有行業都出現了持續復甦。中小型企業仍然是我們商務旅行部門的重要且不斷增長的部分，約占我們部門組合的 85%，並增強了我們的整體彈性。

Group saw the biggest quarter-over-quarter improvement with RevPAR fully recovering to 2019 levels, driven by both occupancy and ADR gains, company meetings boosted performance improving more than 7 points versus the third quarter. As we look to the year ahead, acknowledging macroeconomic uncertainty, we expect system-wide top line growth of 4% to 8% versus 2022. We expect performance to be driven by continued growth in all segments and aided by easy first quarter comps due to Omicron, meaningful recovery across Asia and solid growth in U.S. urban markets as group business continues to recover.

在入住率和 ADR 增長的推動下，集團實現了最大的季度環比改善，RevPAR 完全恢復到 2019 年的水平，公司會議推動業績比第三季度提高了 7 個百分點以上。展望未來一年，承認宏觀經濟的不確定性，我們預計全系統的收入與 2022 年相比將增長 4% 至 8%。我們預計業績將受到所有細分市場持續增長的推動，並受到第一季度輕鬆業績的推動，原因是Omicron，隨著集團業務的持續復甦，整個亞洲的顯著復甦以及美國城市市場的穩健增長。

Comprising roughly 20% of our normalized mix, group is a segment with the greatest visibility. For 2023, group position is up 25% year-over-year and nearly back to 2019 levels. Even with robust forward bookings, the pipeline still remains strong with tentative bookings up more than 20% versus last year, helped by rising demand for company meetings as organizations bring their teams back together.

群體約占我們標準化組合的 20%，是可見度最高的部分。到 2023 年，集團排名同比增長 25%，幾乎回到 2019 年的水平。即使有強勁的遠期預訂，但由於組織將其團隊重新聚集在一起，對公司會議的需求不斷增加，因此暫定預訂量比去年增加了 20% 以上，因此管道仍然很強勁。

Additionally, pricing for new bookings is up in the low double digits and lead volumes in January were at all-time highs. Turning to the development side. We continue to deliver on our commitment to capital-light growth. For the full year, we added nearly a hotel a day, totaling more than 58,000 rooms, and celebrated the opening of our 7,000th hotel. Since our go-private transaction 15 years ago, we've more than doubled the size of our system.

此外，新預訂的價格以兩位數的低位上漲，1 月份的潛在客戶數量也創下歷史新高。轉向開發端。我們繼續履行我們對輕資本增長的承諾。全年，我們每天新增近一家酒店，客房總數超過 58,000 間，並慶祝我們的第 7,000 家酒店開業。自從我們 15 年前進行私有化交易以來，我們的系統規模已經擴大了一倍多。

Our rooms in the U.S. are up nearly 100%, and our international portfolio is now 3.5x larger. Additionally, we've added 10 new brands to our system, more than doubling our portfolio of brands. We achieved all of this without any acquisitions, and more than 90% of the deals in our current pipeline did not have any key money or other financial support.

我們在美國的客房數量增長了近 100%，我們的國際酒店組合現在擴大了 3.5 倍。此外，我們還在系統中添加了 10 個新品牌，使我們的品牌組合增加了一倍以上。我們在沒有任何收購的情況下實現了所有這一切，我們目前管道中超過 90% 的交易沒有任何關鍵資金或其他財務支持。

In the fourth quarter, we celebrated the opening of our 60,000th Home2 Suites room, our 150,000 DoubleTree room, our 200th hotel in CALA and our 600th hotel in Asia Pacific, including our first Hilton Garden Inn in Japan. We also saw continued strength in construction starts throughout the year, leading to starts of more than 70,000 rooms for the full year. In the U.S., starts increased more than 9% versus 2021. We now have more rooms under construction than all major competitors. With a record pipeline of more than 416,000 rooms, half of which are under construction, we expect net unit growth of 5% to 5.5% for the year and remain confident in our ability to return to 6% to 7% net unit growth over the next couple of years.

在第四季度，我們慶祝了第 60,000 間 Home2 Suites 客房、150,000 間逸林客房、我們在 CALA 的第 200 家酒店和我們在亞太地區的第 600 家酒店（包括我們在日本的第一家希爾頓花園酒店）的開業。我們還看到全年開工量持續強勁，全年開工客房超過 70,000 間。在美國，與 2021 年相比，開工率增加了 9% 以上。我們現在在建的房間比所有主要競爭對手都多。憑藉創紀錄的超過 416,000 間客房，其中一半正在建設中，我們預計今年的淨單位增長將達到 5% 至 5.5%，並且對我們有能力在今年恢復到 6% 至 7% 的淨單位增長充滿信心接下來的幾年。

Our disciplined development strategy continues to enhance our network effect and enables us to serve more guests across more destinations for any stay occasion. Building on this commitment, last month, we launched our newest brand, Spark by Hilton, a value-driven product that delivers our signature reliable and friendly service at an accessible price. Spark provides a simple, consistent and comfortable stay with practical amenities and unexpected touches filling an open space in the industry by creating a new premium economy lodging option to meet the needs of even more guests and owners.

我們嚴格的發展戰略繼續增強我們的網絡效應，使我們能夠在任何住宿場合為更多目的地的更多客人提供服務。基於這一承諾，上個月，我們推出了我們的最新品牌 Spark by Hilton，這是一款以價值為導向的產品，以實惠的價格提供我們標誌性的可靠和友好的服務。 Spark 提供簡單、一致和舒適的住宿，實用的設施和意想不到的接觸通過創造一個新的高級經濟住宿選擇來滿足更多客人和業主的需求，填補了行業的開放空間。

Premium economy represents a large and growing segment of travelers, totaling nearly 70 million annually in the U.S. alone. For which, we have not had a tailored brand to serve. This cost-effective all conversion brand offers a streamlined reinvestment plan, focused on core guest elements and enables owners to leverage our industry-leading commercial engines and powerful network effect. To date, we have more than 200 deals in various stages of negotiation, almost all of which are conversions from third parties.

高端經濟艙代表了一個龐大且不斷增長的旅行者群體，僅在美國每年就有近 7000 萬人次。為此，我們還沒有一個量身定制的品牌來服務。這個具有成本效益的全轉換品牌提供簡化的再投資計劃，專注於核心客人元素，使業主能夠利用我們行業領先的商業引擎和強大的網絡效應。迄今為止，我們有超過 200 筆交易處於談判的各個階段，幾乎所有交易都是來自第三方的轉換。

Additionally, we've identified more than 100 U.S. markets with no Hilton-branded products, providing a great opportunity for the brand and the company to expand its presence. As a testament to the strength of our system and our continued success of our customer-focused strategy, Hilton Honors surpassed 150 million members during the fourth quarter and remains the fastest-growing hotel loyalty program.

此外，我們還確定了 100 多個沒有希爾頓品牌產品的美國市場，這為品牌和公司擴大影響力提供了絕佳機會。作為對我們系統實力和我們以客戶為中心戰略的持續成功的證明，希爾頓榮譽客會在第四季度的會員人數超過 1.5 億，並且仍然是增長最快的酒店忠誠度計劃。

Honors members accounted for approximately 64% of occupancy in the quarter, up more than 300 basis points year-over-year and roughly in line with 2019. Additionally, we welcomed approximately 200 million guests to our properties during the year, exceeding pre-pandemic peak levels. We remain focused on ensuring Hilton has a positive impact on the communities we serve.

榮譽會員在本季度的入住率約為 64%，同比增長超過 300 個基點，與 2019 年大致持平。此外，我們在這一年接待了約 2 億客人，超過了大流行前峰值水平。我們仍然專注於確保希爾頓對我們所服務的社區產生積極影響。

For the sixth consecutive year, we were included on both the World and North America Dow Jones Sustainability Indices, the most prestigious ranking for corporate sustainability performance. And for the seventh consecutive year, we were ranked among the World's Best Places to Work by Fortune and Great Place to Work. So our performance demonstrates our team members have proven that we can handle whatever comes our way and because of our hard work and discipline, we are incredibly well-positioned for the future.

我們連續第六年入選世界和北美道瓊斯可持續發展指數，這是企業可持續發展績效最負盛名的排名。我們連續第七年被《財富》雜誌和 Great Place to Work 評為全球最佳工作場所。因此，我們的表現表明，我們的團隊成員已經證明，我們可以處理任何遇到的事情，而且由於我們的努力工作和紀律，我們為未來做好了難以置信的準備。

We're at a pivotal moment with great opportunities ahead in a new golden age of travel, and we're more confident than ever that our team is poised to deliver in 2023 and beyond. Now, I'll turn the call over to Kevin to give a little bit more detail on the quarter and the expectations for the full year.

我們正處於一個關鍵時刻，在新的旅遊黃金時代面臨著巨大的機遇，我們比以往任何時候都更有信心，我們的團隊已準備好在 2023 年及以後實現目標。現在，我將把電話轉給凱文，讓他更詳細地介紹本季度和全年的預期。

Thanks, Chris, and good morning, everyone. During the quarter, system-wide RevPAR grew 24.8% versus the prior year on a comparable and currency neutral basis and increased 7.5% compared to 2019. Growth was driven by continued strength in leisure as well as steady recovery in business transient and group travel. Strength over the holiday travel season also benefited results. Adjusted EBITDA was $740 million in the fourth quarter, up 45% year-over-year and exceeding the high end of our guidance range.

謝謝，克里斯，大家早上好。本季度，在可比和貨幣中性的基礎上，全系統 RevPAR 比上一年增長 24.8%，比 2019 年增長 7.5%。增長的推動因素是休閒業務的持續強勁以及商務短暫旅行和團體旅行的穩步復甦。假期旅遊旺季的強勁表現也有利於業績。第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 7.4 億美元，同比增長 45%，超出了我們指導範圍的上限。

Outperformance was driven by better-than-expected fee growth, particularly in the Americas, Europe and the Middle East, as well as roughly $30 million in COVID-related government subsidies, which benefited our ownership portfolio. Recovery in Japan following borders reopening in October also contributed to strong performance in ownership. Management and franchise fees grew 31% year-over-year, driven by continued RevPAR improvement. Good cost discipline further benefited results.

業績出眾的原因是費用增長好於預期，尤其是在美洲、歐洲和中東，以及約 3000 萬美元的與 COVID 相關的政府補貼，這有利於我們的所有權組合。日本在 10 月份重新開放邊界後的複蘇也促進了所有權的強勁表現。在 RevPAR 持續改善的推動下，管理和特許經營費同比增長 31%。良好的成本控制進一步有利於結果。

For the fourth quarter, diluted earnings per share adjusted for special items was $1.59, increasing 121% year-over-year and exceeding the high end of our guidance range. Turning to our regional performance. Fourth quarter comparable U.S. RevPAR grew 20% year-over-year and increased 8% versus 2019. All 3 segments showed quarter-over-quarter improvement as compared to '19, with performance continuing to be led by strong leisure demand. Both business transient and group RevPAR recovered to above 2019 peak levels for the first time since the pandemic began, driven by continued recovery in occupancy and strong rate.

第四季度，經特殊項目調整後的每股攤薄收益為 1.59 美元，同比增長 121%，超出了我們指導範圍的上限。轉向我們的區域表現。第四季度可比美國 RevPAR 同比增長 20%，與 2019 年相比增長 8%。與 19 年相比，所有 3 個細分市場均出現環比改善，業績繼續受到強勁休閒需求的帶動。在入住率持續回升和房價強勁的推動下，自大流行開始以來，商業瞬時和團體 RevPAR 均恢復到 2019 年的峰值水平以上。

In the Americas outside of the U.S., fourth quarter RevPAR increased 53% year-over-year and 25% versus 2019. Performance was driven by strong leisure demand over the holiday travel season, particularly at resort properties where RevPAR was up over 60% versus peak levels. In Europe, RevPAR grew 67% year-over-year and 20% versus 2019. Performance benefited from continued strength in leisure demand and recovery in international inbound travel, particularly from the U.S.

在美國以外的美洲，第四季度 RevPAR 同比增長 53%，與 2019 年相比增長 25%。業績是由假期旅遊旺季強勁的休閒需求推動的，尤其是在度假酒店，與 2019 年相比，RevPAR 增長超過 60%峰值水平。在歐洲，RevPAR 同比增長 67%，與 2019 年相比增長 20%。業績得益於休閒需求的持續強勁和國際入境旅遊（尤其是美國）的複蘇。

In the Middle East and Africa region, RevPAR increased 26% year-over-year and 34% versus 2019. The region benefited from international inbound travel during the World Cup in Qatar. In the Asia Pacific region, fourth quarter RevPAR was up 29% year-over-year and down 19% versus 2019. RevPAR in China was down 37% compared to 2019, taking a step back quarter-over-quarter as loosening travel restrictions led to a surge of new COVID cases.

在中東和非洲地區，RevPAR 同比增長 26%，與 2019 年相比增長 34%。該地區受益於卡塔爾世界杯期間的國際入境旅遊。在亞太地區，第四季度 RevPAR 同比增長 29%，與 2019 年相比下降 19%。中國的 RevPAR 與 2019 年相比下降了 37%，由於旅行限制的放鬆導致環比下降新的 COVID 病例激增。

Demand is expected to gradually recover throughout the year, but remains volatile in the near term due to rising infections. The rest of the Asia Pacific region saw significant improvement, with RevPAR, excluding China, up 8% versus 2019. Performance was largely driven by strength in Japan following borders reopening.

預計全年需求將逐步恢復，但由於感染病例增加，短期內仍將波動。亞太地區其他地區出現了顯著改善，除中國外，RevPAR 比 2019 年增長了 8%。業績主要受日本在邊境重新開放後的實力推動。

Turning to development. For the full year, we grew net units 4.7%, modestly lower than expected, largely due to the ongoing COVID environment in China, which weighed on fourth quarter openings. Conversions accounted for 24% of our gross openings for the year. And additionally, our pipeline grew year-over-year, ending 2022 at more than 416,000 rooms, with nearly 60% of those located outside the U.S. and roughly half under construction.

轉向發展。全年，我們的淨單位增長 4.7%，略低於預期，這主要是由於中國持續的 COVID 環境影響了第四季度的開業。轉換占我們全年總營業額的 24%。此外，我們的客房數量同比增長，到 2022 年底客房總數超過 416,000 間，其中近 60% 位於美國境外，大約一半在建。

Looking to the year ahead, despite the near-term macroeconomic uncertainty, we are encouraged by the robust demand for Hilton-branded products in both the U.S. and international markets. For full year 2023, we expect net unit growth of between 5% and 5.5%. Turning to the balance sheet. In January, we completed an amendment to our revolving credit facility to increase the borrowing capacity under the facility to $2 billion and extend the maturity to 2028.

展望未來一年，儘管近期宏觀經濟存在不確定性，但我們對美國和國際市場對希爾頓品牌產品的強勁需求感到鼓舞。對於 2023 年全年，我們預計單位淨增長率將在 5% 至 5.5% 之間。轉向資產負債表。 1 月，我們完成了對循環信貸額度的修訂，將該額度的借貸能力提高到 20 億美元，並將期限延長至 2028 年。

As we look ahead, we continue to remain confident in the strength of our liquidity position and financial flexibility. Moving to guidance. For the first quarter, we expect system-wide RevPAR growth to be between 23% and 27% year-over-year. We expect adjusted EBITDA of between $590 million and $610 million and diluted EPS adjusted for special items to be between $1.08 and $1.14.

展望未來，我們繼續對我們的流動性狀況和財務靈活性充滿信心。轉向指導。對於第一季度，我們預計整個系統的 RevPAR 同比增長將在 23% 至 27% 之間。我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 在 5.9 億美元至 6.1 億美元之間，針對特殊項目調整後的攤薄每股收益在 1.08 美元至 1.14 美元之間。

For full year 2023, we expect RevPAR growth between 4% and 8%. We forecast adjusted EBITDA of between $2.8 billion and $2.9 billion. We forecast diluted EPS adjusted for special items of between $5.42 and $5.68. Please note that our guidance ranges do not incorporate future share repurchases.

對於 2023 年全年，我們預計 RevPAR 將增長 4% 至 8%。我們預測調整後的 EBITDA 在 28 億美元至 29 億美元之間。我們預測針對特殊項目調整後的攤薄每股收益在 5.42 美元至 5.68 美元之間。請注意，我們的指導範圍不包括未來的股票回購。

Moving on to capital return. We paid a cash dividend of $0.15 per share during the fourth quarter for a total of $123 million in dividends for the year. For full year 2022, we returned more than $1.7 billion to shareholders in the form of buybacks and dividends. In the first quarter, our Board authorized a quarterly cash dividend of $0.15 per share. For the full year, we expect to return between $1.7 billion and $2.1 billion to shareholders in the form of buybacks and dividends.

繼續資本回報。我們在第四季度支付了每股 0.15 美元的現金股息，全年股息總額為 1.23 億美元。 2022 年全年，我們以回購和股息的形式向股東返還了超過 17 億美元。第一季度，我們的董事會批准了每股 0.15 美元的季度現金股息。對於全年，我們預計將以回購和股息的形式向股東返還 17 億美元至 21 億美元。

Further details on our fourth quarter and full year results can be found in the earnings release we issued earlier this morning. This completes our prepared remarks. We would like -- we would now like to open the line for any questions you may have. We would like to speak with as many of you as possible, so we ask that you limit yourself to 1 question. Chad, can we have our first question, please.

有關我們第四季度和全年業績的更多詳細信息，請參閱我們今天上午早些時候發布的收益報告。這就完成了我們準備好的評論。我們希望——我們現在願意為您可能有的任何問題開通熱線。我們希望與盡可能多的人交談，因此我們要求您將自己限制在 1 個問題內。乍得，我們可以提出我們的第一個問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Carlo Santarelli with Deutsche Bank.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Carlo Santarelli。

And thanks for all the color you provided. Kevin or Chris, whoever wants to kind of tackle it, obviously, given the strength in the first quarter and acknowledging there's seasonality and it doesn't flow this simply, it does look like, at least for the back half of the year, you guys are looking at a flattening out. Could you kind of -- of RevPAR, could you more or less frame kind of how you're thinking about the back half from a macro perspective? And what's more or less embedded in your guidance as it relates to the economy?

並感謝您提供的所有顏色。凱文或克里斯，無論誰想要解決這個問題，顯然，考慮到第一季度的實力並承認存在季節性並且它不會這麼簡單地流動，看起來確實如此，至少在今年下半年，你伙計們正在尋找一個扁平化。你能不能——關於 RevPAR，你能從宏觀的角度或多或少地描述一下你是如何考慮後半部分的嗎？在與經濟相關的指導中，或多或少包含了哪些內容？

Yes. I mean, listen, you can see in the fourth quarter -- first of all, thanks for the question. I think that is the 64,000 dollar question on everybody's mind. I mean, you could see in the fourth quarter, we had really good strength across all the segments. We're early in the year. But in the first quarter, we continue to see that, that strength continue in substance relative to 2019, obviously, versus 2022, it's way up because of the Omicron impact. But we continue from a fundamentals of the industry point of view to feel very good about things.

是的。我的意思是，聽著，你可以在第四季度看到——首先，謝謝你提出這個問題。我認為這是每個人都在想的 64,000 美元的問題。我的意思是，你可以在第四季度看到，我們在所有細分市場都擁有非常好的實力。我們今年年初。但在第一季度，我們繼續看到，相對於 2019 年，這種實力在實質上繼續存在，顯然，與 2022 年相比，由於 Omicron 的影響，它正在上升。但我們繼續從行業的基本面來看，對事情感覺非常好。

I mean if the fundamentals are supply and demand, that's what ultimately drives the result. The supply side is quite muted. We're currently experiencing -- using the U.S. market, which is our biggest market, as an example, equal to the lowest levels of supply that we've seen. Thankfully, we get more than our fair share.

我的意思是，如果基本面是供求關係，那麼這就是最終推動結果的因素。供應方面相當安靜。我們目前正在經歷——以美國市場為例，這是我們最大的市場，相當於我們所見過的最低供應水平。值得慶幸的是，我們得到的比我們應得的更多。

But overall in the market, very low levels of supply, and that continues to be met with very strong demand. And we have not seen, for the record, any weakening. We have not -- we haven't like seen any telltale signs. There are no threats of like any of our major segments sort of backing up. What I think is driving that is some of those cyclical and secular sort of tailwinds. First, you continue to see consumers shifting how they're spending their money. So maybe they're spending a little bit less, but how they're spending it, it continues to be shifted more towards experiences where sort of exhibit A on the experience side.

但總體而言，在市場上，供應水平非常低，而且需求仍然非常強勁。根據記錄，我們沒有看到任何削弱。我們沒有——我們不喜歡看到任何明顯的跡象。沒有像我們任何主要部門那樣的備份威脅。我認為正在推動的是一些週期性和長期性的順風。首先，你會繼續看到消費者改變他們花錢的方式。所以也許他們花的錢少了一點，但他們如何花錢，它繼續更多地轉向在體驗方面展示 A 的體驗。

The international markets are opening up. People -- you're starting to see not just inbound to the U.S. but across the world, people traveling. Asia Pacific is opening up pretty fully. It will take a little bit more time. We saw that happen in Japan in the fourth quarter, which raged with strong results. So we get the full benefit of that. China is obviously going through sort of what we went through 12 to 18 months ago with herd immunity and the like. But our view is that's happening quite rapidly on the ground.

國際市場正在開放。人——你不僅開始看到入境美國，而且在世界各地旅行的人。亞太地區正在全面開放。這將需要更多的時間。我們在第四季度在日本看到了這種情況，該季度取得了強勁的業績。所以我們得到了充分的好處。中國顯然正在經歷我們 12 到 18 個月前在群體免疫等方面經歷過的事情。但我們的觀點是，這在實地正在迅速發生。

You're already starting to see significant travel within China in terms of uptick. And we expect, particularly in the second half of the year, you're going to have a big tailwind from that. And there continues to be broader pent-up demand across all segments. I mean you could argue in the leisure side, some of that has -- the people have been doing a lot of it, but we don't see them slowing down.

您已經開始看到中國境內的大量旅行呈上升趨勢。我們預計，尤其是在今年下半年，你會從中得到很大的推動。所有細分市場都繼續存在更廣泛的被壓抑需求。我的意思是你可以在休閒方面爭論，其中一些 - 人們已經做了很多，但我們沒有看到他們放慢腳步。

So we continue to thank people partly because of the shift in -- as I mentioned, towards experiences, we continue to see strength there. On the business transient side, still good demand, very strong demand and growing demand, lots of pent-up demand. And as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we finished the second half of last year on the group side as people really got comfortable we were through COVID and they could start planning events. They've been planning them like crazy.

所以我們繼續感謝人們，部分原因是——正如我提到的，轉向經驗，我們繼續在那裡看到力量。在業務瞬態方面，仍然有良好的需求，非常強勁的需求和不斷增長的需求，大量被壓抑的需求。正如我在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，我們在去年下半年結束了小組賽，因為人們真的對我們度過了 COVID 感到很舒服，他們可以開始計劃活動。他們一直在瘋狂地計劃他們。

Even the biggest groups, all the association stuff, that really starts to hit the second half of this year because of all of the planning. Some of that's happening. I've been in a lot of big events, speaking at them lately. But the group demand, which I think is pretty resilient, just because people have gone years without doing things that they need to do for survival, is pretty resilient. So those are -- the economics of supply and demand are really good.

由於所有的計劃，即使是最大的團體，所有協會的東西，也真正開始在今年下半年出現。其中一些正在發生。我參加過很多大型活動，最近在這些活動中發表演講。但是我認為群體需求非常有彈性，只是因為人們多年來沒有做他們為生存需要做的事情，所以它非常有彈性。所以那些 - 供求經濟學真的很好。

To be specific, Carlo, and a very fair question, when we've given you a range of 4 to 8, what did we sort of build into it? I mean, part of the reason that you're suggesting a flattening or decel because, let's be honest, it's math. I mean we're going to be way up. You saw our guidance for the first quarter. The growth -- the world was partly shut down in the first quarter last year. So that's just a comparability issue. But we have anticipated, right or wrong, we've tried to be conservative that the second half of the year, you'll see macroeconomic conditions slow.

具體來說，卡羅，一個非常公平的問題，當我們給你一個 4 到 8 的範圍時，我們在其中構建了什麼？我的意思是，你建議拉平或減速的部分原因是，老實說，這是數學問題。我的意思是我們會進步的。你看到了我們對第一季度的指導。增長——去年第一季度世界部分停擺。所以這只是一個可比性問題。但我們已經預料到，無論對錯，我們都試圖保守地說，今年下半年，你會看到宏觀經濟狀況放緩。

So if you were to categorize it, I would describe it as we have assumed in the second half of the year sort of a plateauing related to what we think will be a moderate recessionary environment in the second half of this year. And that's what we have sort of built into what we've suggested to you in the numbers today.

因此，如果你要對其進行分類，我會把它描述為我們在今年下半年假設的某種穩定狀態，這與我們認為今年下半年將出現溫和衰退的環境有關。這就是我們在今天的數字中向您建議的內容。

Great, Chris. That's super helpful. And then just one follow-up. As you guys think about '23 and obviously, some projects that likely were slated for the fourth quarter, as you mentioned, kind of slipping into '23. As it pertains to conversion activity as a percentage of the unit growth this year, would you think that, that 24% is better? Or would you think it's higher or lower than that 24% that you experienced in '22?

太好了，克里斯。這非常有幫助。然後只是一個跟進。當你們想到 23 年時，很明顯，正如您提到的，一些可能計劃在第四季度進行的項目有點滑入 23 年。由於它涉及轉換活動佔今年單位增長的百分比，您認為 24% 更好嗎？或者您認為它高於還是低於您在 22 年所經歷的 24%？

Yes, Carl, we think it's going to be higher. I mean a couple of different reasons. One, conversions continue to be more important as the world gets a little bit tougher, although those conditionings are loosening, it has been tougher for new construction, as you know. So conversions become even more important. And then Spark, as we've talked about in our prepared remarks, is a 100% conversion brand. So we don't think there's going to be a ton of those introduced this year.

是的，卡爾，我們認為它會更高。我的意思是幾個不同的原因。第一，隨著世界變得更加艱難，轉換仍然變得更加重要，儘管這些條件正在放鬆，但如您所知，對於新建築來說更加艱難。因此，轉換變得更加重要。然後，正如我們在準備好的評論中談到的那樣，Spark 是一個 100% 轉換的品牌。所以我們認為今年不會推出大量產品。

But by the end of the year, we'll start delivering those, and so that will drive a little bit higher level of conversion. So the way we think about it, we don't guide specifically. But higher than that 24%, say, probably 30% or higher for the year.

但到今年年底，我們將開始交付這些產品，這將推動更高水平的轉化。所以我們考慮的方式，我們不具體指導。但高於 24%，比如說，今年可能達到 30% 或更高。

And the next question will be from Joe Greff from JPMorgan.

下一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Joe Greff。

So I just wanted to see, Chris, if you could talk about what's embedded in the second half of this year's guidance with respect to U.S. occupancy and pricing changes on a year-over-year basis?

所以我只想看看，克里斯，你能否談談今年下半年關於美國入住率和價格同比變化的指導意見？

Yes. I mean, I'm not going to get highly specific because we gave you a range and that would be hard to do the range that way. But I would say, directionally, the way to think about it is that occupancy sort of flattens out, we don't believe, at least in the numbers we're giving you, we don't anticipate that occupancy even gets back to 2019 levels. RevPAR levels, we think, throughout the year will be higher because of rate integrity.

是的。我的意思是，我不會非常具體，因為我們給了你一個範圍，而那樣做這個範圍很難。但我想說，從方向上來說，考慮入住率的方式是趨於平穩，我們不相信，至少在我們給你的數字中，我們預計入住率甚至不會回到 2019 年水平。我們認為，由於房價的完整性，全年的 RevPAR 水平將會更高。

For all the reasons I described in my filibuster off of Carlo's question, we do continue to believe we will have good pricing power at least through this year, simply because there is no capacity addition really coming into the market. But in U.S. -- the question about the U.S. market, and we do have these both cyclical and secular tailwinds that are giving us increases in demand that we think are going to allow us to continue to have pricing power.

出於我在卡洛問題的阻撓議事中描述的所有原因，我們仍然相信至少到今年我們將擁有良好的定價能力，這僅僅是因為市場上沒有真正增加產能。但在美國——關於美國市場的問題，我們確實有這些週期性和長期的順風，這些順風使我們的需求增加，我們認為這將使我們繼續擁有定價權。

We're not assuming in the second half of the year that pricing power is increasing. I would say, we assume it's flattening or maybe even modestly lower to get to the ranges in numbers that we've suggested to you. So on the occupancy side, if the world is better than everybody thinks, there may be some opportunities. Again, we -- at a very high level, we've assumed not a crash landing sort of soft to bumpy landing in the U.S. with a moderate recessionary environment in the second half.

我們不假設下半年定價權會增加。我會說，我們假設它正在趨於平緩，甚至可能略微降低，以達到我們向您建議的數字範圍。所以在入住方面，如果世界比大家想像的要好，可能會有一些機會。再一次，我們——在一個非常高的水平上，我們假設下半年在溫和的衰退環境下，美國不會出現軟著陸或顛簸著陸。

But with some structural things that are going to help the business globally that I talked about and help the business in the U.S. in terms of spending patterns, group demand and pent-up demand on certain categories of business travel.

但是，一些結構性的事情將有助於我談到的全球業務，並在支出模式、團體需求和對某些類別的商務旅行的被壓抑需求方面幫助美國的業務。

Great. And just as my follow-up, Chris or Kevin, when you think about the fees not related to RevPAR growth in the franchise and the licensing line, specifically the credit cards fees as well as royalty fees coming from timeshare, do you think that grows in line with RevPAR? Or how are you thinking about how that changes over the course of this year versus last year?

偉大的。就像我的後續行動一樣，Chris 或 Kevin，當你考慮與特許經營和許可系列中的 RevPAR 增長無關的費用時，特別是信用卡費用以及來自分時度假的特許權使用費，你認為增長嗎符合RevPAR？或者您如何看待今年與去年相比發生的變化？

Yes. Joe, I think, look, historically -- or not historically, over the last few years, it's been less volatile, right? So if RevPAR was up 45%-ish for the year this year, those fees were up something less than that, although still very robustly. And HGV is public, so you can look at what they've grown when they report. I think in a more normalized RevPAR environment of 4% to 8%, they should grow slightly high -- they should grow at a rate that's better than the overall business.

是的。喬，我想，從歷史上看——或者從歷史上看，在過去幾年裡，它的波動性較小，對吧？因此，如果今年的 RevPAR 上漲了 45% 左右，那麼這些費用的漲幅要小一些，但仍然非常強勁。 HGV 是公開的，因此您可以在他們報告時查看他們的增長情況。我認為在 4% 到 8% 的更規範化的 RevPAR 環境中，它們的增長應該略高——它們應該以比整體業務更好的速度增長。

And so largely dependent on spend, although our credit card program set a record for spend in the fourth quarter and for the full year. We'd spend about 50% higher than it was even in 2019. So that program is doing quite well, although it should be -- it should grow better than RevPAR over time, but it will be a little bit less volatile than it's been just given what's been going on in the world.

因此在很大程度上取決於支出，儘管我們的信用卡計劃在第四季度和全年創下了支出記錄。我們的支出甚至比 2019 年高出約 50%。所以該計劃做得很好，儘管它應該是——隨著時間的推移，它應該比 RevPAR 增長得更好，但它的波動性會比以前小一些只是考慮到世界上正在發生的事情。

The next question is from Shaun Kelley from Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Shaun Kelley。

Chris or Kevin, just maybe we could talk about the development side. I mean, obviously, the kind of shifts from China side, the overall outlook on the construction starts remains robust, and we just continue to get a lot of investor concern about the ability of developers to finance new projects how has that changed with the interest rate environment or the economy.

克里斯或凱文，也許我們可以談談開發方面。我的意思是，很明顯，中國方面的這種轉變，開工建設的總體前景依然強勁，我們只是繼續讓投資者擔心開發商為新項目融資的能力如何隨著興趣而改變評價環境或經濟。

So how did your conversations go kind of throughout the quarter? And then if you could talk -- maybe dig as my follow-up and dig a little bit deeper into Spark. There's been a bit of concern or question in the past about kind of going further down in the chain scales and just hoping you could unpack that a little bit for us why is right now the opportunity set right for moving into the premium economy space?

那麼整個季度你們的談話進展如何？然後，如果你能談談——也許作為我的後續行動深入挖掘並深入挖掘 Spark。過去有一些關於進一步降低連鎖店規模的擔憂或疑問，只是希望你能為我們稍微解釋一下為什麼現在是進入高端經濟領域的機會？

Yes. Sure, Shaun. I'll start with sort of maybe the construction trends more broadly and then maybe hand it off to Chris to cover Spark a little bit. I think what you've seen -- look, there's a lot of puts and takes, right? So you're talking about the interest rate environment and availability of capital. And obviously, rates are a lot higher than they had been, and availability of capital is a little bit more constrained, but there's still plenty of money available for the right projects in the world.

是的。當然，肖恩。我將從更廣泛的建築趨勢開始，然後可能將其交給 Chris 來稍微介紹一下 Spark。我想你所看到的 - 看，有很多投入和投入，對吧？所以你在談論利率環境和資本可用性。顯然，利率比以前高了很多，可用資金也受到了更多限制，但世界上仍有大量資金可用於合適的項目。

If you think about what's going on at the local and regional bank level is different than what's going on at the money center banks in terms of capital constraints and things like that. You have some headwinds as we would say in terms of construction costs coming down, they're still higher than they were in 2019 by about 20% to 30%, but that's off of peaks and moving in the right direction.

如果您考慮在資本限制等方面，地方和區域銀行層面的情況與貨幣中心銀行的情況不同。正如我們所說，在建築成本下降方面存在一些不利因素，它們仍比 2019 年高出約 20% 至 30%，但已經脫離峰值並朝著正確的方向發展。

And then as we've been talking about the fundamental environment gives people more confidence that when the hotel -- when they develop the hotel and it opens, it will perform at a higher level than maybe it otherwise would have. So their pro forma goes up. So you sort of put all that into gonculator, and that's why starts -- started to build in the U.S. and ended up higher in the U.S. last year than they were the year before. It depends on where you are in the world. Obviously, it was really difficult. Not only was it difficult to get hotels open/impossible in China at the end of the year because, literally, the offices that gave you your certificate of occupancy were closed.

然後，正如我們一直在談論的基本環境，讓人們更有信心，當酒店——當他們開發酒店並開業時，它的表現將比其他情況下的水平更高。所以他們的備考上升了。所以你有點把所有這些都放到了 gonculator 中，這就是為什麼開始 - 開始在美國建立並最終在美國去年比前一年更高。這取決於你在世界上的哪個地方。顯然，這真的很難。年底在中國開酒店不僅困難/不可能，因為從字面上看，為您提供入住證明的辦公室已經關閉。

And so that's why you saw a little bit of softness in our NUG. That same environment is going on and start. So if you're in China, starts have been behind. But we think starts are going to continue to build from here. The fundamental setup does give developers optimism. And the way they're thinking about it, they can absorb, not in all cases, but in a lot of cases, they can absorb a higher cost of their construction loan and thinking that the world will be in a better place when they open the hotel, it will perform better and that when they roll their construction loan into a permanent loan, then hopefully, the rate environment will be a little bit more normalized. So those are sort of some of the puts and takes of what's going on in the world.

這就是為什麼您會在我們的 NUG 中看到一點點柔軟。同樣的環境正在發生並開始。所以，如果你在中國，起步就落後了。但我們認為開工將從這裡繼續建立。基本設置確實讓開發人員感到樂觀。他們的想法是，他們可以吸收，但不是在所有情況下，但在很多情況下，他們可以吸收更高成本的建築貸款，並認為當他們開放時世界會變得更美好酒店，它會表現得更好，當他們將建築貸款轉為永久貸款時，希望利率環境會更加正常化。所以這些是世界上正在發生的事情的一些觀點。

Yes, supporting that -- and I'll talk about Spark. When we talk to our owner, I would say at this point, the majority of our system are making more money. Each individual hotels are making more money than they were at the peak of 2019. So that's driving optimism. And the reason they're making money is more efficiencies, higher margins, obviously, rate integrity and pricing power has helped that. But they've got the bulk of the portfolio is producing more free cash flow than it ever has, and this is the business they're in.

是的，支持這一點——我將談論 Spark。當我們與我們的所有者交談時，我會在這一點上說，我們系統的大部分都在賺更多的錢。每家酒店的收入都超過了 2019 年的高峰期。因此這推動了樂觀情緒。他們賺錢的原因是效率更高，利潤率更高，顯然，利率完整性和定價能力對此有所幫助。但他們的大部分投資組合正在產生比以往更多的自由現金流，這就是他們所從事的業務。

And many of them are quite good at finding the money in a local and regional context as they have decades-long relationships. And as Kevin said, that's why you saw in the second half of the year, we saw an inflection point where it starts -- started to go up here in the U.S. and generally around the world, and we think that trend we don't see anything that suggests that trend is reversing itself.

他們中的許多人都非常擅長在本地和區域環境中尋找資金，因為他們擁有長達數十年的合作關係。正如凱文所說，這就是為什麼你在今年下半年看到的原因，我們看到了一個拐點——它開始在美國和世界各地上升，我們認為這種趨勢我們沒有看到任何表明趨勢正在逆轉的跡象。

On Spark, listen, we spent a lot of time. We -- the truth is we have been thinking about something in this space for a long, long time, almost the entire time I've been at the company. We had a lot -- obviously, we've doubled the size of our brand portfolio. So it's not like we've been sitting around doing nothing. We had not entered that zone. But 3 years ago or so, we started to look at it and say, like, because it's a very big customer base, it's a huge opportunity to better serve our existing customers, but also an important opportunity to acquire new customers, if you look at that customer base, at least half, probably, I think, arguably more than half of that customer base or customers that are early in their travel lives that are going to grow up and do other things.

在 Spark 上，聽著，我們花了很多時間。我們——事實上，我們一直在思考這個領域的一些事情，很長很長一段時間，幾乎是我在公司的整個時間。我們有很多 - 顯然，我們的品牌組合規模翻了一番。所以我們並不是坐在那裡無所事事。我們沒有進入那個區域。但大約 3 年前，我們開始關注它並說，因為它有一個非常大的客戶群，這是一個更好地為我們現有客戶服務的巨大機會，也是獲得新客戶的重要機會，如果你看在那個客戶群中，至少有一半，我認為，可以說超過一半的客戶群或處於旅行生活早期的客戶將會長大並做其他事情。

And the sooner you get them into the system and building loyalty with them, the better off you are. So as always, when we look at brands, it starts with a sort of a customer acquisition and a network -- continuing to build the network effect for our existing customer base. So we were confident when we started looking at it 3 years ago that there was a lot of reasons to be serious about it. Then comes the hard part of trying to figure out how do we engineer something at this price point that really works, that it works for customers, meaning that the experience they have with us is going to be great, friendly, reliable, consistent and that we can apply the same magic, if you will, from a commercial point of view to our ownership community that we have in our other brands so that we drive superior performance to our competition.

你越早讓他們進入系統並與他們建立忠誠度，你就越好。因此，一如既往，當我們審視品牌時，它從某種客戶獲取和網絡開始——繼續為我們現有的客戶群建立網絡效應。所以當我們 3 年前開始研究它時，我們有信心有很多理由認真對待它。然後是努力弄清楚我們如何在這個價位上設計出真正有用的東西，它對客戶有用，這意味著他們與我們的體驗將是偉大的、友好的、可靠的、一致的，而且如果您願意，我們可以從商業角度將同樣的魔力應用到我們在其他品牌中擁有的所有權社區，以便我們為競爭對手帶來卓越的性能。

And so there's a reason we spent 3 years on it because it's not easy, but we think we figured it out, I would say, and time will tell, this will be the most disruptive thing we've done in terms of brand space because it is very ripe for disruption. If you go look at hotels at this price point in this segment, you will find a very high beta situation in terms of the physical attributes.

所以我們花了 3 年時間在它上面是有原因的，因為這並不容易，但我們認為我們已經弄清楚了，我想說，時間會證明一切，這將是我們在品牌空間方面所做的最具破壞性的事情，因為顛覆的時機已經成熟。如果你去看看這個細分市場這個價位的酒店，你會發現在物理屬性方面有非常高的貝塔情況。

And it's very hard to fix when you have a big system that's already out there. So you'd say, well, this is all conversion. It is all conversion. But what we did over the last few years is figure out with our supply management team, with our design teams, with our brand teams and everybody else in this company, how can we engineer a product where every single hotel, 100% of the time when it comes in the system has been refreshed, everything that is customer-facing. We built it, we built the rooms, we put it in real hotels, we built the lobbies. And we brought customers in to say, is this what you want? Is it different?

當你有一個已經存在的大系統時，很難修復。所以你會說，嗯，這都是轉換。都是轉換。但我們在過去幾年所做的是與我們的供應管理團隊、我們的設計團隊、我們的品牌團隊以及公司的其他所有人一起弄清楚，我們如何設計一種產品，讓每家酒店 100% 的時間進來的時候系統已經刷新，一切都是面向客戶的。我們建造了它，我們建造了房間，我們把它放在真正的酒店裡，我們建造了大堂。我們讓客戶進來說，這是你想要的嗎？有什麼不同嗎？

And so what will be different about this in this space and why I am not worried about it and why, frankly, I'm -- I mean, it's not (expletive), okay? It's not as (expletive) lifestyle luxury. But in terms of an opportunity to be a value contributor in the billions of dollars for this company and its shareholders, I'm as excited about this as anything else we've done because from a customer point of view, we are going to give them a high-quality, consistent experience at this price point that does not exist in the market because of the way we've engineered the retrofit of these properties.

那麼，在這個領域，這會有什麼不同，為什麼我不擔心它，為什麼，坦率地說，我是——我的意思是，它不是（髒話），好嗎？這不是（髒話）生活方式的奢侈。但就成為這家公司及其股東價值數十億美元的價值貢獻者的機會而言，我對此感到興奮，就像我們所做的任何其他事情一樣，因為從客戶的角度來看，我們將給予由於我們對這些屬性進行改造的設計方式，它們在這個價位上提供了市場上不存在的高質量、一致的體驗。

And this will ultimately take some time, but it can happen quickly. It will be thousands -- it's the biggest segment in the U.S. It's the biggest segment in Europe. I mean it will be thousands. It should be, over time, the biggest brand we have in terms of number of units. And as I said, most importantly, it always starts with what is best for better serving our existing customers and acquiring new customers and how do we do it in a way that owners will get a superior return. We think we have cracked the code. We will have to prove it. It will come to life quite quickly.

這最終需要一些時間，但它可以很快發生。將有數千人——這是美國最大的部分，也是歐洲最大的部分。我的意思是，這將是數千人。隨著時間的推移，就單位數量而言，它應該是我們擁有的最大品牌。正如我所說，最重要的是，它總是從更好地服務我們現有客戶和吸引新客戶的最佳方式開始，以及我們如何以業主獲得豐厚回報的方式做到這一點。我們認為我們已經破解了密碼。我們將不得不證明這一點。它會很快復活。

As Kevin said, we will have Sparks open this year. Won't have it too terribly big impact on this year's numbers. But as we get into next year and beyond, we think it will have a meaningful impact. And as I said, ultimately, I look at these as opportunities as a consumer branded company to think about a new product at our scale being able to be deployed at scale, deployed globally and have the opportunity to be worth billions of dollars to our shareholders.

正如凱文所說，今年我們將開放 Sparks。不會對今年的數字產生太大的影響。但隨著我們進入明年及以後，我們認為它將產生有意義的影響。正如我所說，最終，我將這些視為一家消費品牌公司的機會，以考慮我們規模的新產品能夠大規模部署，全球部署並有機會為我們的股東創造數十億美元的價值.

And I think this is -- checks all of those boxes. So we're super excited. We're not nervous. We've done all the work. I hope we've proven at this point, given this is the 10th or 11th brand that we've created out of the ashes or out of the dust that we're pretty good at this, at this point.

我認為這是——選中所有這些框。所以我們非常興奮。我們並不緊張。我們已經完成了所有工作。我希望我們在這一點上已經證明，鑑於這是我們從灰燼中或塵埃中創造出來的第 10 個或第 11 個品牌，我們在這一點上非常擅長。

The next question is from Smedes Rose from Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Smedes Rose。

I just wanted to ask you a little bit on the owned and leased portfolio. I think you mentioned $30 million of COVID-related subsidies, I think, during the quarter. And I was just wondering, should we just assume that those start to kind of dissipate as we go through 2023? Or are they just all gone at this point? Or how are you thinking about that?

我只是想問你一些關於自有和租賃投資組合的問題。我想你在本季度提到了 3000 萬美元的 COVID 相關補貼。我只是想知道，我們是否應該假設這些隨著我們經歷 2023 年而開始消散？還是他們此時都消失了？或者你是怎麼想的？

Yes, I think it's played through based on the programs that have been approved thus far in Europe. I mean, if -- there's maybe a little bit more to come through based on things we've applied for that haven't quite come through a very small amount. And who knows, if anything, more will come, but we're not expecting any. And the thing I would say is if you look at it on a normalized basis, because remember, we had subsidies in 2021 as well, if you sort of pull all that out, the growth has been quite dramatic. And we continue to think that, that portfolio will grow at a higher rate than the overall business this year.

是的，我認為它是根據迄今為止在歐洲獲得批准的計劃進行的。我的意思是，如果——根據我們申請的東西，可能還有更多的東西需要通過，但數量很少。誰知道，如果有的話，還會有更多，但我們不期待任何。我要說的是，如果你在標準化的基礎上看它，因為請記住，我們在 2021 年也有補貼，如果你把所有這些都拿出來，增長會非常顯著。我們繼續認為，該投資組合今年的增長速度將高於整體業務。

Great. And then, Chris, I'm just wondering if you could just touch on -- you mentioned the U.S. pipeline, and we all see what's happening there. Any change in the way that Hilton is thinking about using key money in order to maintain or grow share or potentially lend to developers at this point? Or...

偉大的。然後，克里斯，我只是想知道你是否可以談談——你提到了美國的管道，我們都看到了那裡發生的事情。在這一點上，希爾頓正在考慮使用關鍵資金以維持或增加份額或可能藉給開發商的方式有什麼變化嗎？或者...

No, no. As I commented on in my prepared remarks and if you look at the whole pipeline, more than 90% of it has no key money, no financial support. We have not changed our view on that. If you look at the aggregate dollars in CapEx, and you peeled out what we're spending in key money, actually, if you average last year and this year together because we had some things we thought would happen last year that are happening this year, it's actually lower than what we've been suggesting to everybody over the last couple of quarters.

不，不。正如我在準備好的發言中所評論的那樣，如果你看看整個管道，其中 90% 以上沒有關鍵資金，沒有財政支持。我們沒有改變對此的看法。如果你看一下資本支出的總美元，你就會去掉我們在關鍵資金上的支出，實際上，如果你把去年和今年放在一起平均，因為我們認為去年會發生的一些事情今年正在發生，它實際上低於我們在過去幾個季度向所有人建議的水平。

So no, I don't -- we still view the opportunity to grow as very strong and without the use of our balance sheet and that ultimately is driven by what you would guess it is. Everybody investing in our portfolio of brands is doing it to get a return, and our brands are the highest performing brands in individual segments. But overall, when you aggregate them together, and people are continuing to want to invest with us in that way. So a long-winded way of saying, no, we don't see anything.

所以不，我不——我們仍然認為在不使用我們的資產負債表的情況下增長的機會非常強大，而這最終是由你所猜測的驅動的。每個投資我們品牌組合的人都是為了獲得回報，我們的品牌是各個細分市場中表現最好的品牌。但總的來說，當你將它們匯總在一起時，人們會繼續希望以這種方式與我們一起投資。所以這是一種冗長的說法，不，我們什麼也沒看到。

In fact, I think the trend line for us overall in key money, I'm looking at Kevin, he runs development, too, so make sure he agrees with this. But the trend line is down, meaning over the last couple of years, we've had a little bit of elevated key money in aggregate dollars because during COVID, a bunch of things we've been working on a long time, came together or some other people's deals blew up, and we were able to sweep in on some very strategic things at a moment in time.

事實上，我認為我們在關鍵資金方面的整體趨勢線，我在看凱文，他也負責開發，所以確保他同意這一點。但是趨勢線是下降的，這意味著在過去的幾年裡，我們的關鍵資金總額有所增加，因為在 COVID 期間，我們長期以來一直在做的一些事情聚集在一起，或者一些其他人的交易失敗了，而我們能夠在某個時刻及時介入一些非常具有戰略意義的事情。

And those were lumpy, but we always have opportunities we're working on. But I think those lumpy -- there are going to be fewer of those lumpy things. So I think -- honestly, I think in an aggregate dollar sense over the next few years, the trend line is down, not up.

那些是塊狀的，但我們總是有我們正在努力的機會。但我認為那些塊狀的——那些塊狀的東西會越來越少。所以我認為 - 老實說，我認為在未來幾年內，從總體美元的角度來看，趨勢線是向下的，而不是向上的。

The next question comes from David Katz from Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 David Katz。

Just following on some of the earlier discussions about the thoughtful conservatism baked into the guidance. Could we talk about the capital returns a bit and just how you thought about pulling that together? And is that necessarily a kind of firm number in view of how the guidance is set up? And what could push that up or down going forward?

只是繼之前關於指南中深思熟慮的保守主義的一些討論之後。我們能否談談資本回報以及您如何考慮將其整合在一起？鑑於指南的製定方式，這是否一定是一種確定的數字？什麼可以推動它向前發展？

Yes, David, I have to say that, yes, it's a firm number, or we wouldn't have given it to you. I assume that goes without saying, but I can't help myself. So yes, as of now, it's a firm number. That's what we think. It's a range for a reason. There's a lot of year left and a lot could happen. I think if I did read your note this morning, so I think I know where you're going with this. Right now, we're a little bit lower than our historic range of leverage. That range does assume effectively no borrowing for the year because we think that the borrowing -- and we know like the borrowing environment right now. It's very choppy, rates are higher than what used to.

是的，大衛，我必須說，是的，這是一個確定的數字，否則我們不會給你。我認為這是不言而喻的，但我情不自禁。所以是的，截至目前，這是一個確定的數字。這就是我們的想法。這是一個範圍是有原因的。還有很多年，很多事情都可能發生。我想如果我今天早上確實讀了你的留言，那麼我想我知道你打算怎麼辦。目前，我們的槓桿率略低於歷史水平。該範圍確實假設今年實際上沒有借貸，因為我們認為藉貸 - 我們知道現在的借貸環境。它非常不穩定，利率比以前高。

And so that assumes that leverage stays roughly flat to slightly down for the year. And that's what -- and yes, that's what the range of guidance and EBITDA will spit out for capital return, again, recognizing that we're a very high free cash flow business. And we don't do -- other than what we were just talking about with a little bit of key money and a little bit of capital, we don't do much else with the money other than pay a small dividend and use it for buybacks. And so that's the range for now.

因此，假設今年的槓桿率大致持平或略有下降。這就是 - 是的，這就是指導範圍和 EBITDA 將為資本回報吐出的範圍，再次認識到我們是一個非常高的自由現金流業務。而且我們沒有做——除了我們剛才談論的用一點關鍵資金和一點資本之外，除了支付少量股息並將其用於回購。這就是現在的範圍。

Yes. The only thing I would add -- all of that, I agree wholeheartedly. The only thing I would add to that is that's not our longer-range views on the balance sheet and return of capital haven't changed. We have been very consistent since the beginning of time. It feels like saying we want to be 3 to 3.5x. We're at the low end or below -- a little bit below the low end of the range for the reasons Kevin just described. We think the debt markets are choppy. They'll get better. Over the intermediate and longer term, we don't intend to run leverage at those levels.

是的。我唯一要補充的是——所有這些，我全心全意地同意。我唯一要補充的是，我們對資產負債表和資本回報的長期看法並沒有改變。我們從一開始就非常一致。感覺就像在說我們想要成為 3 到 3.5 倍。由於凱文剛才描述的原因，我們處於低端或以下 - 略低於範圍的低端。我們認為債務市場動盪不安。他們會好起來的。從中長期來看，我們不打算在這些水平上運行槓桿。

We would intend to be in the ranges, frankly. And we've said it on these calls, probably towards the high end of the range. In a more normalized environment or even beyond that is something that we would certainly -- we've been asked and said many times publicly, we would consider. We just need -- we're just looking for a little bit more stability in the debt markets.

坦率地說，我們打算在範圍內。我們已經在這些電話會議上說過，可能是在該範圍的高端。在一個更加規範化的環境中，甚至超出這個範圍，我們肯定會——我們已經被公開多次詢問和說過，我們會考慮。我們只需要 - 我們只是在尋求債務市場的穩定性。

And obviously, as Kevin said, we don't have the need. And as I commented in my answer to the earlier question on key money, which is the primary use in terms of CapEx, we don't think we need a whole lot more. So any borrowing, any releveraging or leveraging up, obviously, just affords us the opportunity to return even more capital. So I think there will -- those opportunities will exist. We gave you what we think right now, and we'll see how the debt markets and broadly have the macro sort of shifts going forward.

顯然，正如凱文所說，我們沒有這個需要。正如我在回答之前關於關鍵資金的問題時所評論的那樣，這是資本支出的主要用途，我們認為我們不需要更多。因此，顯然，任何借貸、任何再槓桿化或槓桿化都會為我們提供返還更多資本的機會。所以我認為會有 - 這些機會將會存在。我們給了你我們現在的想法，我們將看到債務市場和廣泛的宏觀變化如何向前發展。

Appreciate that. And everything is well received since I misspoke on my question. I know you mean what you say. Can we talk about the new brand just a bit. Am I taking away from the notion that you are fitting yourself into a space where there aren't necessarily direct competitors? Or there are, and you believe you've come up with a better value proposition that will just compete?

感謝。自從我說錯了我的問題後，一切都受到了歡迎。我知道你是認真的。我們能談談這個新品牌嗎？我是否要擺脫這樣一種觀念，即你正在適應一個不一定有直接競爭對手的空間？或者有，並且您相信您已經提出了一個更好的價值主張，只會競爭？

I would say we don't think there are any real competitors. I mean, meaning that, if we do our job, we're going to sort of come in plus or minus 20% below true, which would still probably be above. If you look on average, it will be above where most of the folks in the existing segment are. That's why like we like to do, we're a branding company, we've made up a segment. We called it premium economy.

我會說我們認為沒有任何真正的競爭對手。我的意思是，這意味著，如果我們做好我們的工作，我們將在某種程度上比真實情況低 20%，這仍然可能高於真實情況。如果你平均看，它會高於現有細分市場中大多數人的位置。這就是為什麼像我們喜歡做的那樣，我們是一家品牌公司，我們組成了一個細分市場。我們稱之為高級經濟艙。

So our view would be it is above the traditional economy space. It will price above, both because of the strength of our system, our commercial engines, loyalty system and all those things. But importantly, because it will be a better, higher quality, more consistent product.

所以我們的觀點是它在傳統經濟空間之上。它的價格會更高，這既是因為我們系統的實力、我們的商業引擎、忠誠度系統等等。但重要的是，因為它將是更好、更高質量、更一致的產品。

The next question is from Robin Farley from UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Robin Farley。

My question and follow-up are both really sort of clarifications on an earlier comment. Chris, you said in your guidance, you were assuming that pricing power would flatten or even be modestly lower later in the year. I just wanted to clarify, were you saying pricing power like the rate of increase modestly lower or actually some rate actually lower? Just to clarify.

我的問題和跟進實際上都是對先前評論的澄清。克里斯，你在你的指導中說過，你假設定價能力會在今年晚些時候趨於平緩甚至小幅下降。我只是想澄清一下，你是說定價權，比如增長率適度降低，還是實際上某個增長率實際上更低？只是為了澄清。

Not rates actually lowered. Just basically, plateauing relative to '19 in the second half of the year.

利率實際上沒有降低。基本上，下半年相對於 19 年趨於穩定。

Okay. Perfect. And then on occupancy, you mentioned that your guidance, you're really not even getting back to occupancy in 2019. I'm assuming that's just sort of a matter of time and you would expect to be there by 2024? Or are you -- do you have a view about...

好的。完美的。然後關於入住率，你提到你的指導，你真的甚至沒有回到 2019 年的入住率。我假設這只是一個時間問題，你會期望到 2024 年嗎？或者你是——你對……有什麼看法嗎？

Yes, I mean -- honestly, I think it may be a bit of conservatism on our part. I do think we get -- by the way, Robin, we can get back there tomorrow if we wanted. But we could jump rates because we could occupy ourselves up. But we don't want to do that. We're actually managed, as you can see with the rate growth, we are trying to manage in this cycle, particularly given the environment inflation and everything else, really effectively to drive the best bottom line results for our owners.

是的，我的意思是——老實說，我認為我們可能有點保守。我確實認為我們得到了 - 順便說一句，羅賓，如果我們願意，我們明天可以回到那裡。但我們可以提高利率，因為我們可以讓自己忙起來。但我們不想那樣做。我們實際上是在管理的，正如你從利率增長中看到的那樣，我們正試圖在這個週期中進行管理，特別是考慮到環境通貨膨脹和其他一切，真正有效地為我們的所有者帶來最佳的底線結果。

In this case, that to a degree, our occupancy levels are driven by pricing strategies, okay? Some of it is still -- I think there is more recovery and more pent-up demand, particularly business travel and the group segment. So I absolutely believe there's never been a cycle that I'm aware of that in recorded history where we will not go above prior occupancy level.

在這種情況下，在某種程度上，我們的入住率是由定價策略驅動的，好嗎？其中一些仍然 - 我認為有更多的複蘇和更多被壓抑的需求，特別是商務旅行和團體部門。所以我絕對相信，在有記錄的歷史中，我所知道的從來沒有一個週期，我們不會超過之前的入住率水平。

So I think that we will. It may happen this year. Honestly, if we continue to have pricing power, I kind of hope it doesn't. And I hope it happens next year that means we continue to be able to drive rate and thus higher margins and more profitability for our ownership community.

所以我認為我們會的。它可能會在今年發生。老實說，如果我們繼續擁有定價權，我希望不會。我希望它在明年發生，這意味著我們能夠繼續提高利率，從而為我們的所有權社區帶來更高的利潤和更多的盈利能力。

Great. And then just my other clarification on your net unit guidance. From the comment in the release, I guess, I kind of understood the sort of the coming in just under 5% of the COVID delays in China. But it was maybe some openings that were sort of pushed past December 31 in China that would maybe make then Q1 opening sort of ahead of the full year number.

偉大的。然後是我對您的淨單位指南的其他說明。從新聞稿中的評論來看，我想，我有點理解中國 COVID 延誤的不到 5% 的情況。但也許是一些在中國被推遲到 12 月 31 日之後的開放可能會使當時的第一季度開放有點早於全年數字。

But then in your comments, you made a comment about starts in China being behind. So I guess, I just wanted to get some clarification on whether it was just openings delayed by a few weeks or sort of a broader issue with the unit growth in China if starts are also behind?

但隨後在您的評論中，您評論說中國的起步落後。所以我想，我只是想澄清一下，如果開工也落後了，這只是延遲幾週的開工，還是中國單位增長的更廣泛問題？

I think it's both, Robin. I mean the environment is creating a drag both -- created a drag in the fourth quarter on openings and also has created a drag on starts because it's just broadly when they reopen and then -- before it was lockdown, now it's they reopen and everybody gets sick, but the net result is the business activity comes -- is a drag on business activity.

我認為兩者都是，羅賓。我的意思是，環境正在造成拖累——在第四季度對開工造成拖累，同時也對開工造成拖累，因為大體上是在他們重新開放的時候，然後——在封鎖之前，現在他們重新開放了，每個人生病了，但最終的結果是商業活動來了——拖累了商業活動。

So signing starts and opens, we're all affected by it. We don't think it's a long-term trend in China. We think it's timing. And yes, by definition, if we -- as I said earlier in the Q&A, if there was an environment where you literally have a completed hotel that can't open because it can't get a certificate of occupancy, we don't give you quarterly guidance. So we're not going to get into like when those hotels are going to open. But I think you can assume they're going to open on a delay.

所以簽名開始並打開，我們都受到它的影響。我們認為這不是中國的長期趨勢。我們認為這是時機。是的，根據定義，如果我們——正如我之前在問答環節中所說的那樣，如果在這樣的環境中，你確實擁有一家完工的酒店，但由於無法獲得入住證明而無法開業，我們不會給你季度指導。因此，我們不會像那些酒店開業時那樣陷入困境。但我認為你可以假設他們會延遲開放。

The next question is from Richard Clarke from Bernstein.

下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的理查德克拉克。

I guess, if I stay long enough in your release, I find one negative number, which is pricing is down year-on-year for the Waldorf Astoria. Is there any particular pricing pressure at high-end hotels you're seeing? Or is that mix? And maybe more broadly on pricing. I guess, what I observed is, you seem to have taken a little bit less pricing than some of your peers and your occupancies recovered a little bit quicker. Would that match what the strategy has been? And does that give you maybe a few more buttons to compress on pricing further through the recovery?

我想，如果我在你的發布中停留足夠長的時間，我會發現一個負數，即華爾道夫酒店的價格同比下降。您看到的高端酒店是否有任何特別的定價壓力？或者是那種混合？也許更廣泛地涉及定價。我想，我觀察到的是，你們的定價似乎比你們的一些同行低一點，而且你們的入住率恢復得更快一點。這會符合戰略嗎？這是否會給你更多的按鈕來通過復甦進一步壓縮定價？

Yes. First of all on Waldorf, there's no there. That's driven by individual hotels. Just the Waldorf brand, unlike our other brands, there's not so many hotels that have one dynamic in 1 particular market or 2 markets will drive it. So there's no -- we're not broadly seeing slowdown in luxury. To the contrary, we're continuing to see -- we're continuing to see great strength. I'll dish the second part of that to K.J.

是的。首先在華爾道夫，那裡沒有。這是由個別酒店推動的。與我們的其他品牌不同，只有華爾道夫品牌在 1 個特定市場或 2 個市場中具有一種活力的酒店並不多。所以沒有 - 我們沒有廣泛看到奢侈品的放緩。相反，我們繼續看到——我們繼續看到強大的力量。我會把第二部分送給 K.J.

Yes, Rich, I'm sorry, I didn't -- maybe a little bit of clarification on the second part. I'm not fully understanding where you were going with that. I'm sorry.

是的，Rich，很抱歉，我沒有——也許需要對第二部分進行一些澄清。我不完全明白你要去哪裡。對不起。

Sure. I guess, when I look at your pricing relative to the market, relative to some of your closest peers, it seems you've increased prices a little bit less than some peers and your occupancies recovered quicker than some peers. Is that in line with your sort of second strategy?

當然。我想，當我查看你們相對於市場的定價時，相對於一些最接近的同行，你們的價格上漲似乎比一些同行少一點，而且你們的入住率比一些同行恢復得更快。這符合你的第二種策略嗎？

No. Our market share is up across the board, right? So we're driving better revenue outcomes than our competitors. You may be looking at individual. I don't know what you're looking at in terms of our competitors or individual sort of spot rates for year-on-year. We'd be happy to...

不，我們的市場份額全面上升，對吧？因此，我們正在推動比競爭對手更好的收入結果。你可能正在看個人。我不知道你在看我們的競爭對手或個別的同比即期匯率。我們很樂意...

Yes. The simplest way to look is system-wide last year, we finished in share at the highest levels in our history, and we gained share both in rate and occupancy. So -- but those numbers across the system would not support that theory.

是的。最簡單的觀察方式是去年在全系統範圍內，我們的份額達到歷史最高水平，而且我們在比率和入住率方面都獲得了份額。所以——但是整個系統的那些數字不支持那個理論。

Okay. And maybe just a quick follow-up. The reasonable size adjustment in the net other expenses from managed franchise, the pass-through costs that have been negative through the rest of the year. Looking like maybe you're clawing back some of the losses through COVID. So just wondering if there's some specific program that's pivoted that the other way in Q4?

好的。也許只是快速跟進。管理特許經營淨其他費用的合理規模調整，今年剩餘時間一直為負的轉嫁成本。看起來你可能正在通過 COVID 挽回一些損失。所以只是想知道是否有一些特定的程序在第四季度以另一種方式旋轉？

No. There's always timing issues in terms of those line items. In the end, we have revenue and all of our various funds and programs are going to run breakeven over time, and then you're just seeing timing issues on the P&L.

不會。這些訂單項總是存在時間問題。最後，我們有收入，我們所有的各種基金和項目都將隨著時間的推移實現收支平衡，然後你就會看到損益表上的時間問題。

The next question is from Chad Beynon from Macquarie.

下一個問題來自 Macquarie 的 Chad Beynon。

I wanted to ask about the tight labor market that we continue to hear about in terms of the -- from the Fed's reporting. Obviously, very strong in the experiential category on travel and lodging. So do you believe this has peaked? When you talk to your partners, kind of your builders, what are they saying just in terms of the labor market? And then secondarily, how does that factor into how you're thinking about IMFs and kind of profits in the back half of the year if it hasn't?

我想問一下我們繼續從美聯儲的報告中聽到的緊張的勞動力市場。顯然，在旅行和住宿的體驗類別中非常強大。那麼你認為這已經達到頂峰了嗎？當你和你的合作夥伴，比如你的建築商交談時，他們在勞動力市場方面是怎麼說的？其次，如果沒有，這將如何影響你對國際貨幣基金組織的看法以及下半年的利潤？

Yes. I mean the labor market situation has eased a lot. So as we talk to -- I mean, listen, we employ a lot of people. We operate a lot of hotels because I talk to our team. But beyond that, I talk to our franchise community. I think they would say that, broadly, we are not fully back to where we were in terms of access to labor, but we're getting awfully close.

是的。我的意思是勞動力市場形勢已經緩和了很多。因此，當我們與 - 我的意思是，聽著，我們僱用了很多人。我們經營著很多酒店，因為我與我們的團隊交談過。但除此之外，我還與我們的特許經營社區進行了交談。我認為他們會說，從廣義上講，我們在獲得勞動力方面並沒有完全回到原來的狀態，但我們已經非常接近了。

And so if it was on a scale of 1 to 10 a year ago at 10 in terms of [extremist], it's a 4 or 5. I mean it was something we were talking about every single day, every conversation, and it is not quite as topical, which is a good indication. So I think the labor situation is easing. You continue to see across a broad universe of other industries, notwithstanding what the Fed is saying a lot of layoffs, including, of course, through technology, but through banking, also through retail, where people had really staffed up thinking that the COVID retail demand was going to be maintained and it hasn't.

因此，如果一年前它的等級是 1 到 10，就 [極端主義] 而言是 10，那麼它是 4 或 5。我的意思是這是我們每天、每次談話都在談論的事情，但事實並非如此相當熱門，這是一個很好的跡象。所以我認為勞工形勢正在緩和。你繼續看到其他廣泛的行業，儘管美聯儲說了很多裁員，當然包括通過技術，但通過銀行業，也通過零售業，人們真的認為 COVID 零售需求將得到維持，但事實並非如此。

And so there are a lot of people that are getting pushed back out into the job market, and that's allowing -- affording us the opportunity to get the labor that we need. You've also seen, while wage rates went up a lot during COVID, net from '19 to now, you've seen that start to stabilize. And those kind of big increases are not continuing. They're at a higher absolute level. But the level -- the rate of increase has diminished substantially.

因此，有很多人被趕回就業市場，這讓我們有機會獲得所需的勞動力。您還看到，雖然工資率在 COVID 期間上漲了很多，但從 19 年到現在，您已經看到工資率開始趨於穩定。而這種大幅增長並沒有持續下去。他們處於更高的絕對水平。但水平——增長率已經大幅下降。

In terms of how we think about IMF, we feel good about IMF. I think for the year, we expect IMF to add significantly to the growth rate. We think -- this year, we expect that it will get over our prior high watermarks of...

就我們對 IMF 的看法而言，我們對 IMF 感覺良好。我認為今年，我們預計國際貨幣基金組織將顯著提高增長率。我們認為 - 今年，我們預計它將超過我們之前的高水位線......

Great. And then secondly, just in terms of FX, the dollar has weakened a little bit against kind of the basket of the non-U.S. currencies. How are you thinking about an operational impact from that? And then also, as that kind of feeds into guidance, is there a translational impact with just a slightly weaker dollar versus what you saw in '22?

偉大的。其次，就外匯而言，美元兌一攬子非美國貨幣有所走軟。您如何看待這對運營的影響？然後，隨著這種情況進入指導，與你在 22 年看到的情況相比，美元略微走弱是否會產生轉化影響？

Operationally, obviously, it has effects in each individual market where your pricing labor in those currencies. It's a very small headwind -- single-digit millions of dollars headwind in this year's numbers.

顯然，在操作上，它對您以這些貨幣進行定價的每個市場都有影響。這是一個非常小的逆風——在今年的數字中有數百萬美元的逆風。

The next question is from Bill Crow from Raymond James.

下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Bill Crow。

You talked about the strength of leisure in the fourth quarter and all of last year. But when you think about leisure demand this year, how would your RevPAR 4% to 8% growth for the year? How would that -- would leisure be in that range? Or there's a lot of concern that it's going to be significantly below that?

你談到了第四季度和去年全年休閒的力量。但是當您考慮今年的休閒需求時，您的 RevPAR 全年增長 4% 到 8% 會怎樣？那怎麼會 - 休閒會在那個範圍內嗎？或者有很多人擔心它會大大低於這個水平？

Yes. I think -- we do think it would be within that range. We continue to see strength. We do expect like all that segments that you will see some plateauing as a result of a slower macro environment in the second half of the year. But we still feel very good about it. The demand trends here and now are really strong. And while there's a lot of noise out there, if you go back -- I just went back and looked at the number, consumers still have incremental savings in the U.S. relative to the month before COVID of $1.5 trillion.

是的。我認為 - 我們確實認為它會在這個範圍內。我們繼續看到力量。我們確實希望像所有這些細分市場一樣，由於今年下半年宏觀環境放緩，您會看到一些平穩期。但我們仍然感覺很好。現在的需求趨勢非常強勁。雖然外面有很多噪音，但如果你回過頭來看——我只是回過頭來看看這個數字，相對於 COVID 前一個月的 1.5 萬億美元，消費者在美國的儲蓄仍然增加。

Now -- so that peaked at like $2.7 trillion, it's down to $1.5 trillion. So they are spending it, and they're probably reading the papers and watching the news and getting more nervous. And so that would be a behavior set that would say that maybe they pull back a little bit. But the reality is we're not seeing it. And I think part of the reason we're not seeing it, okay, and time will tell, is because of the phenomena that I described earlier in the call, which is they're shifting their spending.

現在 - 達到 2.7 萬億美元的峰值，下降到 1.5 萬億美元。所以他們在花錢，他們可能在看報紙、看新聞，變得更加緊張。因此，這將是一個行為集，表明他們可能會退縮一點。但現實是我們沒有看到它。而且我認為我們沒有看到它的部分原因，好吧，時間會證明，是因為我在電話中早些時候描述的現象，即他們正在轉移他們的支出。

So not only do they still have incremental savings in their pockets and feel reasonably good, but they're spending a lot more of it at bars and restaurants and travel as a percentage of their overall spend. And so we have anticipated like all segments, there'll be a little bit of a headwind in the second half of the year, but we do expect leisure to be in those ranges.

因此，他們不僅口袋裡仍然有更多的儲蓄並且感覺相當不錯，而且他們在酒吧和餐館以及旅行中的花費在他們總支出中所佔的比例也增加了很多。因此，我們預計與所有細分市場一樣，今年下半年會有一些逆風，但我們確實預計休閒會在這些範圍內。

If I could address my follow-up question on Spark, which is really an intriguing product. Does it kind of take care of 2 problems that are out there for the industry? And one is obviously a lot of deferred CapEx over the last several years. But the other one is the age of select service hotels Hampton what started in '84 or '85. So we're dealing with hotels coming up on 40 years old. So is there a -- is that part of the thought process is that you've got a lot of hotels that could ultimately fit within that brand?

如果我能在 Spark 上解決我的後續問題，這確實是一個有趣的產品。它是否解決了行業中存在的兩個問題？其中一個顯然是過去幾年的大量遞延資本支出。但另一個是漢普頓精選服務酒店的時代，它始於 84 年或 85 年。所以我們正在處理 40 歲以上的酒店。那麼有沒有 - 思維過程的一部分是你有很多最終可以融入該品牌的酒店嗎？

Listen, it is an ancillary benefit on the margin, meaning if we do have older Hamptons like other third-party products that we think aren't fitting for Hampton. As you know, we've been quite disciplined in keeping the Hampton brand, the strongest brand in lodging, in my opinion, by pushing properties out that are past their prime and don't make sense in the system. There -- I think over the next 10 years, there is some percentage of those that we will certainly look at keeping in the system.

聽著，這是邊際上的附帶利益，這意味著如果我們確實擁有像我們認為不適合漢普頓的其他第三方產品那樣的舊漢普頓。如您所知，在我看來，我們在保持漢普頓品牌方面一直非常有紀律，這是住宿領域最強大的品牌，通過推出已經過時且在系統中沒有意義的酒店。在那裡 - 我認為在未來 10 年內，我們肯定會考慮將其中一定比例的內容保留在系統中。

I think in the end, Bill, it will be a very small percentage of the overall system. And if I look at the deals that we have in-house right now, 98% of the deals we are processing right now are third-party brands. So there are a few Hamptons in there. But there's no other Hilton brands in there, but there are a few Hamptons. But I would say it's an ancillary benefit on the margin. A lot of those hotels, frankly, over time, are going to exit the system as we've been doing for time and eternity.

Bill，我認為最終它只佔整個系統的一小部分。如果我看看我們現在的內部交易，我們現在處理的交易中有 98% 是第三方品牌。所以那裡有幾個漢普頓。但那裡沒有其他希爾頓品牌，但有幾個漢普頓。但我會說這是邊際上的附帶好處。坦率地說，隨著時間的推移，許多酒店將退出該系統，就像我們一直以來所做的那樣。

The next question is from Patrick Scholes from Truist Securities.

下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Patrick Scholes。

It's Greg Miller on for Patrick Scholes. And congratulations on what appears to be another successful...

帕特里克斯科爾斯換下格雷格米勒。並祝賀這似乎是另一個成功的......

Greg. can you hear us? Your -- we can't understand what you're saying. Your connection is super garbled.

格雷格。你可以聽見我們嗎？你的——我們聽不懂你在說什麼。你的連接是超級亂碼。

I apologize sir, we'll have to move on to our next question. And the next question is from Brandt Montour with Barclays.

對不起，先生，我們必須繼續下一個問題。下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Brandt Montour。

Actually, just one for me, Chris and Kevin. So in terms of development and more medium to longer term sort of net unit growth and your comments were well taken, Chris, on a couple of years. The world has -- seems to have gotten a bit better for you, though, right, since 3 months ago, right, in terms of the speed at which China is reopening, now the excitement over Spark and then U.S. starts continuing to get a little bit better.

實際上，只有一個給我，克里斯和凱文。因此，就發展和更中長期的淨單位增長而言，你的評論在幾年內得到了很好的採納，克里斯。世界已經 - 對你來說似乎變得更好了，但是，從 3 個月前開始，就中國重新開放的速度而言，現在對 Spark 的興奮和美國開始繼續獲得好一點點。

So I guess, the question is, do you feel a little bit better about getting back to the 6 to 7 [nug] than you did 3 months ago? And are we potentially even playing for maybe hitting that run rate in late '24?

所以我想，問題是，與 3 個月前相比，您是否覺得回到 6 到 7 [nug] 好一點？我們甚至有可能在 24 世紀末達到那個運行率嗎？

Look, I think we said what we said for a reason, Brandt, not to be sort of cagey about it, but there's a lot can go one way or the other in the world. We still feel great about getting back to 6% to 7%. I don't -- Chris may have a different view. I don't feel differently today than I did 3 months ago about that. I think the world is coming our way a little bit. But we don't expect -- none of these things stay constant, right? I mean these trends will change, and we always think the world is going to come our way. So I don't feel that much better in 3 months from now.

聽著，我認為我們說我們所說的話是有原因的，勃蘭特，並不是要對此保持謹慎，但世界上有很多事情可以朝著這樣或那樣的方向發展。我們仍然對回到 6% 到 7% 感覺很好。我不——克里斯可能有不同的看法。我今天的感覺與 3 個月前的感覺沒有什麼不同。我認為世界正在朝著我們的方向發展。但我們並不期望——這些事情都不會保持不變，對吧？我的意思是這些趨勢會改變，我們總是認為世界會朝著我們的方向發展。因此，從現在起的 3 個月內我不會感覺好多少。

I'm probably more optimistic by nature than Kevin, that's our roles. But no, I think we feel -- we felt pretty good about getting back to it a quarter ago. So I agree in the sense we don't feel differently. And I think we were asked on the last call, what does it look like? And we said it looks like you get to terra firma with a view on the U.S. economy either in recession where people have a little bit more certainty. I don't think we've accomplished -- that hasn't really changed.

我天生可能比凱文更樂觀，這就是我們的角色。但是不，我認為我們覺得 - 我們對回到一個季度前感覺很好。所以我同意我們沒有不同的感覺。我想我們在上次電話會議上被問到，它是什麼樣子的？我們說過，無論是在人們有更多確定性的衰退中，你都可以對美國經濟有一個看法。我不認為我們已經完成——這並沒有真正改變。

Then we said China, okay, that we got to get China back and reopen. And while it's not fully reopened, it's happening. So I think on the margin, we feel better about that. And we didn't have -- we in our heads had Spark, but we didn't tell you about Spark. And so we now have Spark there, and I think that provides no pun intended, a little bit of Spark to our progress in getting back there. So we felt pretty good about it a quarter ago. I think we feel pretty good about it now.

然後我們說中國，好的，我們必須讓中國回來並重新開放。雖然它沒有完全重新開放，但它正在發生。所以我認為在邊際上，我們對此感覺更好。我們沒有——我們頭腦中有 Spark，但我們沒有告訴你 Spark。所以我們現在有了 Spark，我認為這不是雙關語，而是我們回到那裡的一點點 Spark。所以我們在一個季度前感覺還不錯。我認為我們現在感覺很好。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Chris Nassetta for any additional or closing remarks.

女士們，先生們，我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給 Chris Nassetta 以聽取任何補充或結束語。

Thank you, Chad, and thank you all for joining us. As you can imagine -- or I hope you would imagine, we're pleased with the state of the recovery, fourth quarter numbers are great. While we're sentient and watching the macro trends, we feel very good about what we're seeing right now in the business and advanced bookings and all the things that sidelines that we have into the business, we think we're going to have another really good year, and we appreciate the support, we appreciate the time. We look forward to catching up with everybody after the first quarter to give you more sight lines into what we're seeing then. So thank you, and have a great day.

謝謝 Chad，也謝謝大家加入我們。正如你所能想像的那樣——或者我希望你能想像，我們對複甦的狀況感到滿意，第四季度的數據非常好。當我們有意識地觀察宏觀趨勢時，我們對我們現在在業務和高級預訂中看到的情況以及我們在業務中所擁有的所有旁觀者感到非常滿意，我們認為我們將會擁有又是一個非常好的一年，我們感謝支持，我們感謝時間。我們期待在第一季度之後趕上大家，讓您更多地了解我們當時所看到的情況。所以謝謝你，祝你有美好的一天。

And thank you, sir. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

謝謝你，先生。會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。