希爾頓酒店 (HLT) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Hilton First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Brian Kucaj, Senior Director, Investor Relations. You may begin.

早上好，歡迎來到希爾頓 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係高級總監 Brian Kucaj。你可以開始了。

Thank you, Chad. Welcome to Hilton's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. Before we begin, we would like to remind you that our discussions this morning will include forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those indicated in the forward-looking statements, and forward-looking statements made today speak only to our expectations as of today. We undertake no obligation to update or revise these statements. For a discussion of some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ, please see the Risk Factors section of our most recently filed Form 10-K.

謝謝你，乍得。歡迎來到希爾頓 2023 年第一季度財報電話會議。在我們開始之前，我們想提醒您，我們今天上午的討論將包括前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中的結果存在重大差異，而今天做出的前瞻性陳述僅代表我們今天的預期。我們不承擔更新或修改這些聲明的義務。有關可能導致實際結果不同的一些因素的討論，請參閱我們最近提交的 10-K 表格的風險因素部分。

In addition, we'll refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures on this call. You can find reconciliations of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures discussed in today's call, in our earnings press release and on our website at ir.hilton.com. This morning, Chris Nassetta, our President and Chief Executive Officer, will provide an overview of the current operating environment and the company's outlook. Kevin Jacobs, our Chief Financial Officer and President, Global Development, will then review our first quarter results and discuss our expectations for the year. Following their remarks, we will be happy to take your questions. With that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Chris.

此外，我們將在本次電話會議上提及某些非 GAAP 財務指標。您可以在今天的電話會議、我們的收益新聞稿和我們的網站 ir.hilton.com 中找到非 GAAP 與 GAAP 財務指標的調節。今天上午，我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Chris Nassetta 將概述當前的經營環境和公司的前景。我們的首席財務官兼全球發展總裁 Kevin Jacobs 隨後將回顧我們的第一季度業績並討論我們對今年的預期。根據他們的發言，我們很樂意回答您的問題。有了這個，我很高興把電話轉給克里斯。

Thanks, Brian. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us today. We're pleased to report that demand for travel remains strong, maintaining the trend that we saw in the back half of last year, which led to both our top and bottom line results finishing the quarter above the high end of our guidance. As we move forward, fundamentals remain strong, and we're -- and we expect secular tailwinds to continue to support growth. Despite continued macroeconomic uncertainty, we're optimistic that the power of our network effect, our industry-leading RevPAR premiums and our fee-based capital-light business model will continue to drive strong operating performance, unit growth and meaningful cash flow, enabling us to return an increasing amount of capital to shareholders.

謝謝，布萊恩。大家早上好，感謝今天加入我們。我們很高興地報告，旅行需求依然強勁，保持了我們在去年下半年看到的趨勢，這導致我們本季度的最高和最低業績均高於我們指導的高端。隨著我們向前邁進，基本面依然強勁，而且我們 - 我們預計長期順風將繼續支持增長。儘管宏觀經濟持續存在不確定性，但我們樂觀地認為，我們的網絡效應的力量、我們行業領先的 RevPAR 溢價和我們基於費用的輕資本業務模式將繼續推動強勁的經營業績、單位增長和有意義的現金流，使我們能夠向股東返還越來越多的資本。

In the first quarter, system-wide RevPAR grew 30% year-over-year and 8% compared to 2019. Rate continued to drive growth, up 11% compared to 2019, and system-wide occupancy reached 68%, up from the prior quarter and just 2 points shy of peak levels. Globally, all segments outperformed expectations, and the lifting of COVID restrictions in China drove significant recovery in demand across Asia Pacific throughout the quarter. As a result, RevPAR in the month of March exceeded 2019 levels across all regions and segments for the first time since the pandemic began. Given our strong results and positive momentum, we're raising both top and bottom line guidance for the full year, which Kevin will cover in more detail in just a few minutes.

第一季度，全系統RevPAR同比增長30%，與2019年相比增長8%。房價繼續推動增長，與2019年相比增長11%，全系統入住率達到68%，高於上一季度四分之一，僅比峰值水平低 2 分。在全球範圍內，所有細分市場的表現都超出預期，中國取消 COVID 限制推動整個季度亞太地區的需求顯著復甦。因此，自大流行開始以來，所有地區和細分市場 3 月份的 RevPAR 首次超過 2019 年水平。鑑於我們強勁的業績和積極的勢頭，我們提高了全年的頂線和底線指導，凱文將在短短幾分鐘內詳細介紹。

Turning to the segment details. Leisure trends remained strong throughout the quarter with RevPAR surpassing 2019 by approximately 15%, ahead of prior quarter performance. Strong leisure transient demand continue to drive rates up in the mid-teens above 2019 and occupancy fully recovered back to 2019 levels, driven by the surge in travel in Asia Pacific. Business transient also continued to improve with RevPAR up 4% from 2019, reflecting the resiliency of business travel, particularly for small and medium-sized businesses, which remained roughly 85% of our segment mix.

轉向細分細節。整個季度的休閒趨勢依然強勁，RevPAR 超過 2019 年約 15%，高於上一季度的表現。在亞太地區旅遊激增的推動下，強勁的休閒短暫需求繼續推動房價在 2019 年以上達到 15% 左右，入住率完全恢復到 2019 年的水平。業務瞬態也繼續改善，RevPAR 比 2019 年增長 4%，反映出商務旅行的彈性，特別是對於中小型企業而言，它們仍然占我們細分市場組合的大約 85%。

Recovery in group remains robust with RevPAR finishing roughly in line with 2019 with steady improvement each month in the quarter and March exceeding 2019 by 5%. Demand for future bookings also remained strong with full year group position up 28% year-over-year and 3% versus 2019. Additionally, new group leads ended in the quarter 13% higher than 2019, an increase of 6 points compared to prior quarter.

集團復甦依然強勁，RevPAR 大致與 2019 年持平，本季度和 3 月每個月穩步改善，超過 2019 年 5%。對未來預訂的需求也依然強勁，全年集團預訂量同比增長 28%，與 2019 年相比增長 3%。此外，本季度新的集團預訂量比 2019 年高出 13%，比上一季度增加 6 個百分點.

Looking at the full year, based on the better-than-expected Q1 results, the accelerated demand across Asia and continued positive momentum in group, we now expect full year system-wide top line growth between 8% and 11% versus 2022, assuming some slowdown in the back half of the year due to macroeconomic uncertainty, particularly in the U.S.

展望全年，基於好於預期的第一季度業績、亞洲需求的加速增長以及集團持續的積極勢頭，我們現在預計全年全系統收入與 2022 年相比增長 8% 至 11%，假設由於宏觀經濟的不確定性，特別是在美國，今年下半年出現一些放緩

Turning to development. In the first quarter, we opened 64 properties totaling over 9,000 rooms, celebrating several milestones, including the opening of our 500th hotel in China, our 100th addition to the Tapestry Collection and the opening of the Canopy Toronto Yorkville, the Lifestyle brand's debut in Canada. We also opened 2 new Embassy Suites resort properties in Virginia Beach and Aruba with the Aruba addition marking the brand's tenth international property. And after recently being ranked the #1 Hotel Franchise in Entrepreneur Magazine's Franchise 500 for a record-breaking 14th year in a row, Hampton by Hilton expanded its global presence to 37 countries with the brand's first property in Ecuador.

轉向發展。第一季度，我們開設了 64 家酒店，共計 9,000 多間客房，慶祝了多個里程碑，包括我們在中國的第 500 家酒店開業、我們在 Tapestry 系列中的第 100 家酒店以及 Canopy Toronto Yorkville 開業，這是生活方式品牌在加拿大的首次亮相.我們還在弗吉尼亞海灘和阿魯巴島開設了 2 家新的 Embassy Suites 度假酒店，阿魯巴島是該品牌的第十家國際酒店。在最近連續第 14 年在企業家雜誌的特許經營 500 強中排名第一的特許經營酒店之後，希爾頓歡朋酒店憑藉其在厄瓜多爾的第一家酒店將其全球影響力擴展到 37 個國家/地區。

While we expect to see some impact from the current financing environment, we are encouraged by the progress on the signings and starts front. We signed approximately 25,000 rooms during the quarter, growing our pipeline to a record 428,000 rooms, more than half of which are currently under construction. Signings in the quarter outpaced prior year across all regions. And conversion signings in the quarter were 24% higher than prior year, benefiting in part from the rollout of our newly-launched brand, Spark by Hilton. The initial interest in Spark has been tremendous. We currently have more than 300 deals in various stages of negotiation, and our teams are working hard to deliver this exciting new premium economy conversion brand with hotels opening later this year.

雖然我們預計當前的融資環境會產生一些影響，但我們對簽約和開工方面的進展感到鼓舞。我們在本季度簽署了大約 25,000 間客房，將我們的客房數量增加到創紀錄的 428,000 間，其中一半以上目前正在建設中。本季度所有地區的簽約數量都超過了去年同期。本季度的轉化簽約比去年同期高出 24%，這在一定程度上得益於我們新推出的品牌 Spark by Hilton 的推出。最初對 Spark 的興趣是巨大的。我們目前有超過 300 筆交易處於談判的各個階段，我們的團隊正在努力提供這個令人興奮的新高端經濟轉型品牌，並在今年晚些時候開設酒店。

Hilton Garden Inn also continues to be an engine of global growth with 14 new signings across 6 countries in the quarter and over 60 working deals in 22 countries. Additionally, in April, we announced the signing of the Waldorf Astoria Jaipur, marking the debut of the brand in India and further demonstrating our commitment to expanding our world-class luxury brands across the globe.

希爾頓花園酒店也繼續成為全球增長的引擎，本季度在 6 個國家有 14 個新簽約，在 22 個國家有超過 60 個工作交易。此外，在 4 月，我們宣布與齋浦爾華爾道夫酒店簽約，標誌著該品牌在印度的首次亮相，並進一步表明我們致力於在全球範圍內擴展我們的世界級奢侈品牌。

Construction starts for the quarter totaled over 19,000 rooms, up nearly 20% from prior year, and starts in the U.S. were up more than 50% year-over-year. Our global under construction pipeline is up 8% compared to March 2022. And per STR, we continue to lead the industry in total rooms under construction. Taking all this into account, we still expect to deliver net unit growth within our guidance range this year and remain confident in our ability to return to 6% to 7% net unit growth over the next couple of years.

本季度新開工客房總數超過 19,000 間，比去年同期增長近 20%，美國的開工量同比增長超過 50%。與 2022 年 3 月相比，我們的全球在建項目增加了 8%。根據 STR，我們在在建客房總數方面繼續領先於行業。考慮到所有這些因素，我們仍預計今年的淨單位增長將在我們的指導範圍內，並對我們在未來幾年內恢復到 6% 至 7% 的淨單位增長的能力保持信心。

On the loyalty front, Hilton Honors grew to more than 158 million members, a 19% increase year-over-year and remains the fastest-growing hotel loyalty program. In the quarter, Hilton Honors members accounted for 62% of occupancy, an increase of 200 basis points year-over-year. Additionally, in an effort to further provide our loyal guests with an elevated wellness experience, in April, we announced the international expansion of our partnership with Peloton, bringing Peloton bikes to properties across the U.K., Germany, Canada and Puerto Rico, building on our existing partnership to make Peloton bikes available in all U.S. hotels.

在忠誠度方面，希爾頓榮譽客會的會員數量增長到超過 1.58 億，同比增長 19%，並且仍然是增長最快的酒店忠誠度計劃。本季度，希爾頓榮譽客會會員入住率為 62%，同比增長 200 個基點。此外，為了進一步為我們的忠實客人提供更好的健康體驗，我們在 4 月宣布擴大與 Peloton 的國際合作夥伴關係，將 Peloton 自行車帶到英國、德國、加拿大和波多黎各的酒店，建立在我們的基礎上現有的合作夥伴關係，以便在美國所有酒店提供 Peloton 自行車。

As one of the world's largest hospitality companies, we recognize Hilton has a responsibility to protect the planet and to support the communities we serve to ensure our hotel destinations remain vibrant and resilient for generations of travelers to come. In early April, we published our 2022 Travel With Purpose report, outlining our latest progress towards our 2030 environmental, social and governance goals, including our efforts to reduce our environmental impact while creating engines of opportunity within our communities and preserving the beautiful destinations where we live, work and travel.

作為世界上最大的酒店公司之一，我們認識到希爾頓有責任保護地球並支持我們所服務的社區，以確保我們的酒店目的地為未來幾代旅行者保持活力和彈性。 4 月初，我們發布了 2022 年有目的地旅行報告，概述了我們在實現 2030 年環境、社會和治理目標方面的最新進展，包括我們努力減少對環境的影響，同時在我們的社區內創造機會引擎並保護我們所在的美麗目的地生活、工作和旅行。

We remain committed to driving responsible travel and tourism globally while furthering positive environmental and social impact and sound governance across our operations and our communities. All of our success would not be possible without the dedicated efforts of our talented team, and we continue to be recognized for our remarkable workplace culture. Recently, Great Place to Work and Fortune ranked Hilton the #2 workplace in the U.S., our eighth consecutive year on the list, and once again, the top-ranked hospitality company, an accomplishment I'm truly proud of.

我們仍然致力於在全球範圍內推動負責任的旅行和旅遊業，同時在我們的運營和社區中進一步產生積極的環境和社會影響以及健全的治理。沒有我們才華橫溢的團隊的不懈努力，我們所有的成功都是不可能的，我們將繼續以卓越的工作場所文化而受到認可。最近，Great Place to Work 和 Fortune 將希爾頓評為美國第二大工作場所，這是我們連續第八年上榜，並且再次成為頂級酒店公司，我為這一成就感到自豪。

Overall, despite macroeconomic uncertainty, we believe that our world-class brands, dedicated team members and resilient business model have us incredibly well positioned for the future. Now I'll turn the call over to Kevin for a few more details on the quarter and our expectations for the full year.

總體而言，儘管宏觀經濟存在不確定性，但我們相信，我們的世界級品牌、敬業的團隊成員和富有彈性的商業模式使我們在未來處於非常有利的地位。現在我將把電話轉給凱文，了解有關本季度的更多細節以及我們對全年的期望。

Thanks, Chris, and good morning, everyone. During the quarter, system-wide RevPAR grew 30% versus the prior year on a comparable and currency-neutral basis and increased 8% compared to 2019. Growth was driven by strong demand in APAC as well as continued strength in leisure and steady recovery in business transient and group travel. Adjusted EBITDA was $641 million in the first quarter, up 43% year-over-year and exceeding the high end of our guidance range.

謝謝，克里斯，大家早上好。本季度，在可比和貨幣中性的基礎上，全系統 RevPAR 較上年增長 30%，與 2019 年相比增長 8%。增長的推動因素包括亞太地區的強勁需求以及休閒市場的持續強勁和美國經濟的穩步復甦。商務短暫和團體旅行。第一季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 6.41 億美元，同比增長 43%，超過了我們指導範圍的上限。

Outperformance was driven by better-than-expected fee growth across all regions as well as strong performance in Europe and Japan benefiting our ownership portfolio. Management and franchise fees grew 30% year-over-year, driven by continued RevPAR improvement. Continued good cost discipline further benefited results. For the quarter, diluted earnings per share adjusted for special items was $1.24, increasing 75% year-over-year and exceeding the high end of our guidance range.

所有地區的費用增長都好於預期，以及歐洲和日本的強勁表現使我們的所有權組合受益，從而推動了出色的表現。在 RevPAR 持續改善的推動下，管理和特許經營費同比增長 30%。持續良好的成本紀律進一步使業績受益。本季度，針對特殊項目調整後的每股攤薄收益為 1.24 美元，同比增長 75%，超出了我們指導範圍的上限。

Turning to our regional performance. First quarter comparable U.S. RevPAR grew 21% year-over-year with performance continuing to be led by strong leisure demand. Both business transient and group RevPAR finished above 2019 peak levels for the second consecutive quarter, driven by strong rate growth. In the Americas outside the U.S., first quarter RevPAR increased 56% year-over-year and 35% versus 2019. Performance was driven by strong leisure demand at resort properties where RevPAR was up over 60% compared to peak levels. In Europe, RevPAR grew 68% year-over-year and was 13% higher than 2019. Performance benefited from continued strength in leisure demand and recovery in international inbound travel, particularly from the U.S.

轉向我們的區域表現。第一季度可比美國 RevPAR 同比增長 21%，業績繼續受到強勁休閒需求的引領。在強勁的利率增長的推動下，業務瞬態和集團 RevPAR 連續第二個季度超過 2019 年的峰值水平。在美國以外的美洲，第一季度 RevPAR 同比增長 56%，與 2019 年相比增長 35%。業績是由度假酒店的強勁休閒需求推動的，與峰值水平相比，RevPAR 增長了 60% 以上。在歐洲，RevPAR 同比增長 68%，比 2019 年高出 13%。業績得益於休閒需求的持續強勁和國際入境旅遊（尤其是美國）的複蘇。

In the Middle East and Africa region, RevPAR increased 32% year-over-year and 42% versus 2019, led by strong rate growth and group demand. In the Asia Pacific region, first quarter RevPAR was up 91% year-over-year and down only 4% versus 2019. RevPAR in China was down 5% compared to 2019, 32 points better than prior quarter as demand recovery accelerated due to the lifting of COVID restrictions. The rest of the Asia Pacific region also saw a significant improvement with RevPAR, excluding China, up 19% versus 2019, representing an 11-point improvement versus prior quarter.

在中東和非洲地區，RevPAR 同比增長 32%，與 2019 年相比增長 42%，這主要得益於強勁的房價增長和團體需求。在亞太地區，第一季度 RevPAR 同比增長 91%，與 2019 年相比僅下降 4%。中國的 RevPAR 與 2019 年相比下降 5%，比上一季度好 32 個百分點，原因是需求復蘇加速。取消 COVID 限制。除中國外，亞太其他地區的 RevPAR 也有顯著改善，較 2019 年增長 19%，較上一季度提高 11 個百分點。

Turning to development. Our pipeline grew year-over-year and sequentially and now totals 428,000 rooms with nearly 60% located outside the U.S. and over half under construction. Looking at the full year, despite the near-term macroeconomic uncertainty, we still expect net unit growth between 5% and 5.5%.

轉向發展。我們的管道逐年增長，環比增長，目前共有 428,000 間客房，其中近 60% 位於美國境外，超過一半正在建設中。展望全年，儘管近期宏觀經濟存在不確定性，但我們仍預計單位淨增長率在 5% 至 5.5% 之間。

Moving to guidance. For the second quarter, we expect system-wide RevPAR growth to be between 10% and 12% year-over-year. We expect adjusted EBITDA of between $770 million and $790 million and diluted EPS adjusted for special items to be between $1.54 and $1.59. For full year 2023, we expect RevPAR growth of between 8% and 11%. We forecast adjusted EBITDA of between $2.875 billion and $2.95 billion. We forecast diluted EPS adjusted for special items of between $5.68 and $5.88. Please note that our guidance ranges do not incorporate future share repurchases.

轉向指導。對於第二季度，我們預計整個系統的 RevPAR 同比增長將在 10% 至 12% 之間。我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 在 7.7 億美元至 7.9 億美元之間，針對特殊項目調整後的攤薄每股收益在 1.54 美元至 1.59 美元之間。對於 2023 年全年，我們預計 RevPAR 將增長 8% 至 11%。我們預測調整後的 EBITDA 在 28.75 億美元至 29.5 億美元之間。我們預測針對特殊項目調整後的攤薄每股收益在 5.68 美元至 5.88 美元之間。請注意，我們的指導範圍不包括未來的股票回購。

Moving on to capital return. We paid a cash dividend of 15% -- $0.15 per share during the first quarter for a total of $41 million. Our Board also authorized a quarterly dividend of $0.15 per share in the second quarter. Year-to-date, we have returned more than $600 million to shareholders in the form of buybacks and dividends, and we expect to return between $1.8 billion and $2.2 billion for the full year. Further details on our first quarter results can be found in the earnings release we issued earlier this morning. This completes our prepared remarks. We would now like to open the line for any questions you may have. We would like to speak with as many of you as possible, so we ask that you limit yourself to 1 question, please. Chad, can we have our first question?

繼續資本回報。我們在第一季度支付了 15% 的現金股息——每股 0.15 美元，總計 4100 萬美元。我們的董事會還批准在第二季度派發每股 0.15 美元的季度股息。年初至今，我們已經以回購和股息的形式向股東返還了超過 6 億美元，我們預計全年回報將在 18 億至 22 億美元之間。有關我們第一季度業績的更多詳細信息，請參閱我們今天上午早些時候發布的收益報告。這就完成了我們準備好的評論。我們現在想為您可能有的任何問題打開熱線。我們希望與盡可能多的人交談，因此請您將自己限制在 1 個問題內。乍得，我們可以提出我們的第一個問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions) And the first question is from Carlo Santarelli from Deutsche Bank.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Carlo Santarelli。

Chris, just in terms of the way you guys are thinking about the year, your guidance, obviously, from a RevPAR perspective, up about 350 basis points at the midpoint. First quarter obviously contributes some of that lift. You guys spoke to a tougher macroeconomic situation in the second half of the year on your fourth quarter call. How much has your outlook on the second half changed as obviously you get some contribution from the first quarter, you have a lot of visibility in the second quarter? Just trying to understand within the context of that guidance, if you've had any kind of change or pushing out of when you guys believe or when you're interpreting the macroeconomic conditions will toughen?

克里斯，就你們對這一年的思考方式而言，從 RevPAR 的角度來看，你們的指導顯然在中點上升了約 350 個基點。第一季度顯然貢獻了一些提升。你們在第四季度的電話會議上談到了今年下半年更加嚴峻的宏觀經濟形勢。您對下半年的展望有多大變化，顯然您從第一季度獲得了一些貢獻，您在第二季度有很多知名度？只是想在該指導的背景下理解，如果你們有任何改變或推出你們相信或當你們解釋宏觀經濟狀況會變得更加強硬的時候？

Yes, a really good question. Obviously, I think I used the macroeconomic uncertainty 2 or 3 times for a reason because there is an uncertain environment. I mean, what we're seeing today is, as you heard in what you saw in our numbers and in the prepared comments is very good strength across all our segments. Leisure continues to be super strong. Business transient in the quarter, both demand and pricing, has returned to prior peak levels and group is motoring on its way. It's just longer in gestation to get there. But based on the trends, it's going to get there in the second half of the year, I think, with a great deal of certainty.

是的，一個非常好的問題。顯然，我認為我使用了 2 或 3 次宏觀經濟不確定性是有原因的，因為存在不確定的環境。我的意思是，我們今天看到的是，正如您在我們的數字和準備好的評論中看到的那樣，我們所有細分市場的實力都非常強大。休閒繼續超強。本季度的業務瞬變，包括需求和定價，已恢復到之前的峰值水平，並且集團正在前進。到達那裡的時間更長。但根據趨勢，我認為它會在今年下半年到達那裡，而且非常確定。

So we are not -- you didn't really ask it this way, but I think part of it is we're not seeing any cracks in terms of demand patterns. There is a lot of momentum. I sit at this very table every Monday morning with my entire executive committee representing every region of the world. And the first question I ask, are you seeing any cracks? Any issues with demand broadly? Any issues regionally? Any issues from a segment point of view? And the truth is we're just not seeing it.

所以我們不是 - 你並沒有真正這樣問，但我認為部分原因是我們沒有看到需求模式方面的任何裂縫。勢頭很大。我每個星期一早上都坐在這張桌子旁，我的整個執行委員會代表世界每個地區。我問的第一個問題是，你看到任何裂縫了嗎？廣泛的需求有什麼問題嗎？有地域性的問題嗎？從細分的角度來看有什麼問題嗎？而事實是我們只是沒有看到它。

Having said that, we know here in the U.S. and in many other places around the world, there's an inflation issue. Now it's being -- it is being managed. It's becoming -- it is in the process of normalizing, particularly here in the U.S., but it's not there. And the Fed has said it's going to deal with it. I believe that -- I take them at their word. And I think ultimately, that means you're going to continue to have a slowing of the broader economic environment that, at some point, has to have some impact on us.

話雖如此，我們知道在美國和世界上許多其他地方都存在通貨膨脹問題。現在它正在——它正在被管理。它正在成為 - 它正在正常化的過程中，特別是在美國這裡，但它不在那裡。美聯儲已經表示會處理它。我相信——我相信他們的話。我認為最終，這意味著更廣泛的經濟環境將繼續放緩，這在某些時候必須對我們產生一些影響。

It hasn't yet, for a bunch of reasons, I suggested: one, I still think we have a lot of pent-up demand; two, we are still benefiting from a secular shift in spending patterns broadly. So while people may have a little less to spend, they're spending more of it on experiences and a lot less of it on things. You see that throughout the economy. And international travel is, finally, with China opening up, while it's not back anywhere near where it has been, international travel is really on a steep up-slope. And all of those things are keeping the momentum in demand in the business.

還沒有，出於很多原因，我建議：第一，我仍然認為我們有很多被壓抑的需求；第二，我們仍在廣泛地受益於支出模式的長期轉變。因此，雖然人們的支出可能會少一些，但他們會花更多的錢在體驗上，而花在其他事情上的錢卻少得多。你會在整個經濟中看到這一點。最後，國際旅行是隨著中國的開放，雖然它並沒有回到過去的任何地方，但國際旅行確實處於陡峭的上升趨勢。所有這些都在保持業務需求的勢頭。

Recognizing also, by the way, that capacity additions are at historical lows and are probably going to stay there for a while. So when I said very quickly in my comments, fundamentals remain strong, I mean, fundamentals are supply and demand. Demand is good for the reasons I suggest that supply in the industry is anemic. Thankfully, we get a lot more than our fair share of the supply, so that's good for us. But the basic fundamentals in the business are good.

順便說一句，還認識到產能增加處於歷史低位，並且可能會在那裡停留一段時間。因此，當我在評論中很快地說，基本面依然強勁，我的意思是，基本面是供求關係。出於我認為行業供應不足的原因，需求良好。值得慶幸的是，我們得到的供應量遠遠超過我們應得的份額，所以這對我們有好處。但是業務的基本面是好的。

Having said all of that, we do expect things will slow down. You asked a question which I'm actually going to answer, which is, do I feel any differently than I did sitting here a quarter ago? And I would say, yes, I would say number one, the economy appears to be more resilient. Inflation is being tamed. I have a higher degree of confidence at this point. I'm not the right person to ask, but well, I'll tell you what I think. I have a higher degree of confidence that the Fed will land the plane reasonably well and that we're not going to have a deep dark kind of recession. We're going to have a slowdown, maybe a recession. It feels a lot more like it will be reasonably modest at this point. So I feel better about that.

綜上所述，我們確實預計事情會放緩。你問了一個我實際上要回答的問題，那就是，我的感覺和一個季度前坐在這裡有什麼不同嗎？我會說，是的，我會說第一，經濟似乎更有彈性。通貨膨脹正在得到抑制。我在這一點上有更高的信心。我不是合適的人選，但是好吧，我會告訴你我的想法。我更有信心美聯儲會相當順利地著陸，我們不會陷入深度黑暗的衰退。我們將會放緩，也許是經濟衰退。感覺更像是在這一點上相當適度。所以我對此感覺好多了。

And I definitely feel like things have been pushed out a little bit. One, just time has gone by. We have now a quarter under our belt. We're deep into understanding half of the year. I mean, we're not done. There's a bunch of the second quarter left, but we have pretty good sight lines at this point into Q2. And that feels like the momentum is continuing. So you get half a year sort of under your belt. It gives you more confidence. And so I feel better about, thus why we increased our guidance on the top line and bottom line because I feel like there's enough momentum in our business. The economy broadly is pretty resilient. There's more confidence in the Fed being able to sort of do this without wreaking too much havoc.

而且我絕對覺得事情已經被推遲了一點。一，只是時間過去了。我們現在有四分之一。我們深入了解半年。我的意思是，我們還沒有完成。第二季度還有很多時間，但此時我們對第二季度的看法非常好。感覺這種勢頭還在繼續。所以你有半年的時間。它給你更多的信心。所以我感覺好多了，這就是為什麼我們增加了對頂線和底線的指導，因為我覺得我們的業務有足夠的動力。總體而言，經濟非常有彈性。人們對美聯儲能夠在不造成太大破壞的情況下做到這一點更有信心。

So I'd say net-net, yes, I feel a bit better. Having said that, we did and I said it intentionally in the prepared comments, we do assume because we are sentient and we know what's going on, that at some point, you will see some slowing. I think realistically, it's more late third quarter and into the fourth quarter. I honestly think there's a chance it kicks into next year, given the broader momentum and the strength of the consumer broadly.

所以我會說 net-net，是的，我感覺好多了。話雖如此，我們確實做到了，而且我在準備好的評論中是故意這麼說的，我們確實假設因為我們有感知力並且我們知道發生了什麼，所以在某個時候，你會看到一些放緩。我認為實際上，現在是第三季度末和第四季度。老實說，考慮到更廣泛的勢頭和消費者的實力，我認為它有可能進入明年。

But I don't know. And so what we've tried to do in our guidance is build in an expectation that this -- these efforts of the Fed here and in other parts of the world will eventually work and that we're going to see some, at least, modest slowdown. And so that's sort of what -- we feel better than we did. We still think there's a lot of uncertainty, and we've tried to factor for that in our guidance in the second half of the year.

但我不知道。因此，我們在我們的指導中試圖做的是建立這樣一種預期——美聯儲在這里和世界其他地方的這些努力最終會奏效，我們至少會看到一些，適度放緩。所以這就是 - 我們感覺比以前好多了。我們仍然認為存在很多不確定性，我們試圖在下半年的指導中考慮到這一點。

Great. And then if I could, just 1 quick follow-up. In the period, obviously, I think managed franchise RevPAR was 29%. Unit growth on the franchise side was 4.4%. The fees -- franchise fees grew about 23%. I'm assuming that, that's a comp issue with some ancillary non-RevPAR fees in the 1Q of '22?

偉大的。然後，如果可以的話，只需進行 1 次快速跟進。顯然，在此期間，我認為管理特許經營 RevPAR 為 29%。特許經營方面的單位增長率為 4.4%。費用——特許經營費增長了約 23%。我假設，這是 22 年第一季度的一些輔助非 RevPAR 費用的補償問題？

Correct. Yes. I mean, the way to think about those is those are normalizing in growth rates, above algorithm growth, above typical growth you would assume sort of on a same-store basis. But we're still, particularly because of Omicron, on the fee side, we have a supercharged fee growth rate in the first quarter. But I think the way to think about, over the intermediate, even longer term, is we think all of those ancillary license fees and otherwise, they're going to grow better than our typical algorithm growth. You're just -- yes, you have some year-over-year normalization going on in Omicron impact.

正確的。是的。我的意思是，考慮這些的方法是那些增長率正常化，高於算法增長，高於您假設的同店基礎上的典型增長。但我們仍然，特別是因為 Omicron，在費用方面，我們在第一季度的費用增長率很高。但我認為，從中期甚至更長期來看，我們認為所有這些輔助許可費用的思考方式，否則，它們的增長將比我們典型的算法增長更好。你只是 - 是的，你在 Omicron 的影響中進行了一些年度標準化。

And a little bit of mix as well, so the franchise business is a little more concentrated in the U.S. where RevPAR growth has not been as robust as outside the U.S.

還有一點混合，所以特許經營業務更集中在美國，那裡的 RevPAR 增長不如美國以外強勁。

And the next question is from Joe Greff from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Joe Greff。

Chris, I'd love to hear your views on -- and your understanding of what developers are feeling right now, just given changes in the credit markets and the banking environment, particularly with maybe limited service developers that are more reliant on regional bank for financing. Are they requesting more capital help from you guys? Do you think maybe they're pulling forward some deals maybe in an effort to circumvent future tightening? Can you talk about what your expectation is for maybe pipeline growth for the balance of the year? And then I have a follow-up.

克里斯，我很想听聽你的看法 - 以及你對開發商現在感受的理解，只是考慮到信貸市場和銀行環境的變化，特別是對於可能更依賴區域銀行的有限服務開發商融資。他們是否要求你們提供更多的資金幫助？您是否認為他們可能正在推進一些交易以規避未來的緊縮？你能談談你對今年餘下時間管道增長的期望嗎？然後我有一個後續行動。

Yes. I mean, it's early. So we've obviously been talking to a lot of our ownership community as the banking issues have sort of taken hold. And I would say there's a broad range that anecdotally go from, we haven't seen much impact. We're still getting finance. As you can see in our numbers in starts in the U.S. being so far up. Now part of that was before the banking, the regional local banking set of issues, but part of it was after. They're still getting the best owners with the best relationships are getting their deals done, and our market share in a tougher environment goes up.

是的。我的意思是，現在還早。因此，隨著銀行業問題的出現，我們顯然一直在與我們的許多所有權社區進行交談。我想說的是，傳聞範圍很廣，我們沒有看到太大的影響。我們仍在獲得資金。正如您在我們的數字中所看到的那樣，美國的開工率一直很高。現在部分是在銀行業之前，即區域本地銀行業一系列問題，但部分是在之後。他們仍然讓擁有最好關係的最好的所有者完成交易，我們在更艱難的環境中的市場份額也在上升。

So proportionately relative to others in the industry, we typically do even better. But we also have folks that are saying very hard to find the money and some in the middle that are saying like they're talking to their banks and their banks are saying, "Hey, we're going to be there for you. Just give me like 90 days. Let me see how this all plays out." And so I think it's early to know. I think being objective about it, which I always am trying to be, I think the Fed seems to be managing through this reasonably well. There's some ongoing things today or this week going on, but I think the Fed, I think, is pretty committed to making sure there isn't sort of a run on regional banks broadly. So I think we're in reasonably good shape that way.

因此，相對於業內其他公司而言，我們通常做得更好。但我們也有一些人說很難找到錢，一些中間人說他們正在與他們的銀行交談，他們的銀行說，“嘿，我們會在那裡等你。只是給我 90 天的時間。讓我看看結果如何。”所以我認為現在知道還為時過早。我認為客觀地看待它，我一直在努力做到這一點，我認為美聯儲似乎在這方面做得相當好。今天或本週發生了一些持續的事情，但我認為美聯儲非常致力於確保區域銀行不會普遍出現擠兌。所以我認為我們的狀態相當不錯。

But I think that the net result is for a period of time, there'll be less credit available, okay? I still think we'll get more than our fair share of it because our brands are better performing, and we'll see our share go up as we historically do when times get tougher for financing, et cetera. But it's hard to believe that in the short to intermediate term, there's not going to be some impact. It hasn't shown up. It didn't show up in the first quarter. We haven't seen it yet, but I think in terms of pipeline, people, I think our expectation at this point for the year is the pipeline is going to keep growing.

但我認為最終結果是在一段時間內，可用的信貸會減少，好嗎？我仍然認為我們會得到比我們應得的更多的份額，因為我們的品牌表現更好，而且我們會看到我們的份額像歷史上那樣在融資困難等情況下上升。但很難相信在中短期內不會產生一些影響。它沒有出現。它在第一季度沒有出現。我們還沒有看到它，但我認為就管道而言，人們，我認為我們今年此時的預期是管道將繼續增長。

The bigger question is going to be the conversion under construction. In the first quarter, it was very, very good, as you heard, in the data. I think that will get more challenging. I think it just stands to reason that will get more challenging. And so listen, the good news for us is we tend to get -- our share goes up. It's a big world. While China has been a little bit slower to sort of pick up steam on the development side, it is picking up steam. I think, particularly as we think about next year, I think it's going to be a big net contributor.

更大的問題將是正在建設中的轉換。正如你所聽到的，第一季度的數據非常非常好。我認為這將變得更具挑戰性。我認為按理說這會變得更具挑戰性。所以聽著，對我們來說，好消息是我們往往會得到——我們的份額上升了。這是一個大世界。儘管中國在發展方面加速發展的速度有點慢，但它正在加速發展。我認為，特別是在我們考慮明年的時候，我認為它將成為一個巨大的淨貢獻者。

And conversions are -- have been and continue to be a big focus of ours. We think we'll do meaningfully more as a percentage of overall delivery this year as conversion somewhat aided by this year a little bit, but a lot, I think, next year by Spark, which is 100% conversion, very low cost of entry in a relative percent. Very, very lightly, if dependent at all, on the banking community. So that's not why we did Spark. We did Spark for all the right reasons, to better serve, create a bigger and better network effect, but just in time management, the timing of it actually is quite good. As we said, it's not going to do a lot for this year, but I think over -- starting next year and beyond, it will add significantly.

轉換是 - 一直並將繼續成為我們的一大重點。我們認為今年我們將做更多有意義的事情，佔總交付量的百分比，因為今年的轉化率有所幫助，但我認為，明年 Spark 會帶來很多幫助，這是 100% 的轉化率，進入成本非常低以相對百分比。非常非常輕微地（如果完全依賴）銀行界。所以這不是我們開發 Spark 的原因。我們做 Spark 是出於所有正確的理由，為了更好地服務，創造更大更好的網絡效應，但就時間管理而言，它的時機實際上非常好。正如我們所說，今年它不會做很多事情，但我仔細考慮 - 從明年及以後開始，它會顯著增加。

But the net of all that, Joe, is, again, answering -- I'm trying to give a little bit of color across the board. We do expect that what's going on in the banking system, particularly for limited service, which is disproportionately financed by the regional and local banks, that they're going to pull in their horns. They're going to survive. Most of them are going to get through this, but there's going to be less credit available, and that's going to slow things down a bit.

但是，喬，所有這些的總和再次回答了——我正試圖全面地給出一點顏色。我們確實預計銀行系統正在發生的事情，特別是對於由地區和地方銀行不成比例地提供資金的有限服務，他們會有所作為。他們會活下來。他們中的大多數人都會度過難關，但可用的信貸會減少，這會讓事情放慢一點。

Great. And just -- my follow-up question is system-wide RevPAR is flat, which is sort of what's baked into the second half guidance. But if we just think about it for the intermediate term, not that you're guiding to anything beyond the second half, do you think fee growth can be in excess of RevPAR growth, just given the rooms growth in the last few years?

偉大的。只是——我的後續問題是全系統的 RevPAR 是持平的，這就是下半年指南中提到的內容。但如果我們只是考慮中期，而不是你指導下半年以後的任何事情，你認為收費增長會超過 RevPAR 增長嗎，考慮到過去幾年的客房增長？

Should be, yes. It should be mathematically, yes. The algorithm is, as you know, so the same-store plus unit growth. And we've been delivering on average even through COVID, 5-ish, maybe a tick over even in an environment that is being impacted by some of the things I just described. We believe we'll continue to do that as we manage our way over the next couple of years back up to the 6% to 7%. And so even in a no growth same-store environment, which is not certainly what we're experiencing now for the record, as you can see, but even in that environment, fees would continue to grow with unit growth.

應該是，是的。它應該是數學上的，是的。如您所知，該算法是同店加單位增長。即使在受我剛才描述的某些事情影響的環境中，我們也一直在平均交付 COVID，5-ish，甚至可能是一個滴答聲。我們相信我們會繼續這樣做，因為我們會在接下來的幾年裡設法回到 6% 到 7%。因此，即使在沒有增長的同店環境中，正如你所看到的，這肯定不是我們現在正在經歷的記錄，但即使在那種環境中，費用也會隨著單位增長而繼續增長。

And the next question is from Shaun Kelley from Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Shaun Kelley。

Chris, I kind of wanted to stick with the development activity, but maybe let's just go out a little bit longer term. And if you could help us pull from a little bit of your experience of how this played out during the global financial crisis a little bit. Just help us think about, if we think about some of the -- there's kind of 3 drivers, I think, about domestic unit growth, obviously, decently reliant on the financial system; the conversion activity, where you've got a pretty interesting pipeline of brands that might even be stronger than back then and then the international side.

克里斯，我有點想堅持開發活動，但也許讓我們稍微延長一點時間。如果你能幫助我們從你在全球金融危機期間如何發揮作用的經驗中汲取一點經驗。請幫助我們想想，如果我們考慮一些——我認為有 3 個關於國內單位增長的驅動因素，顯然，它們對金融體系的依賴程度很高；轉換活動，在那裡你有一個非常有趣的品牌管道，這些品牌甚至可能比當時和國際方面更強大。

Can you help us think about sort of buckets 2 and 3? And as we get on to '24 and '25, how much could those help carry the weight? And how protected do you think, let's call it, a broad mid-single-digit net unit growth target should be in a variety of different scenarios as people are just trying to think about broader fallout here from financing and again, a more difficult macro broadly?

你能幫我們考慮一下桶 2 和桶 3 嗎？當我們進入 24 和 25 年時，這些能在多大程度上幫助承載重量？你認為如何保護，讓我們稱之為，一個廣泛的中個位數淨單位增長目標應該在各種不同的情況下，因為人們只是想考慮融資帶來的更廣泛的影響，再一次，一個更困難的宏觀寬廣地？

Yes. I mean, that's the right question to ask. And that's why I said, yes, we do expect to see some impact. But I also said, maybe I backed into it but I'll say it more directly, we feel good about being in that range you described. We've been around 5% through the toughest down cycle in recorded history. Through COVID, we've stayed sort of 5-ish or a tick above. And we think over the next period of time, as these things sort of work their way through the system, that we'll be able to stay there.

是的。我的意思是，這是正確的問題。這就是為什麼我說，是的，我們確實希望看到一些影響。但我也說過，也許我支持它，但我會更直接地說，我們對處於你描述的範圍內感覺很好。在有記錄的歷史上最艱難的下行週期中，我們的股價一直在 5% 左右。通過 COVID，我們一直保持在 5 左右或以上的水平。我們認為在接下來的一段時間內，隨著這些事情在系統中發揮作用，我們將能夠留在那裡。

How are we going to do it? Well, one, we're going to gain share because our products perform better, and we have the highest market share brands in the business. We're going to keep pushing market share higher. And so while there's going to be potentially less new build activity domestically, we will plan to work hard to get an even larger share of that.

我們要怎麼做？好吧，第一，我們將獲得份額，因為我們的產品性能更好，而且我們擁有業內最高市場份額的品牌。我們將繼續提高市場份額。因此，雖然國內的新建築活動可能會減少，但我們將計劃努力獲得更大的份額。

Conversions, we do believe that we're uniquely suited certainly relative to The Great Recession by having not only more shots on goal in terms of brands. But Spark, again, there's -- long term, we think Spark is probably the most disruptive thing that we'll have ever done in terms of giving customers, at that price point, a really good product. But it's also, the timing of it is convenient and helpful because it depends very little on financing. Most of the other conversions still depend on financing. A lot of conversions, not all, but a lot of conversions do happen around asset transactions where people say I'm a buyer and a seller and I'm going to change brands and upgrade properties. We'll still convert a bunch of other types of properties that -- where they're not changing ownership, but no change -- lower change of ownership puts a little pressure on that.

轉換，我們確實相信，相對於大蕭條，我們不僅在品牌方面有更多的目標，因此肯定是獨一無二的。但是 Spark，再一次，從長遠來看，我們認為 Spark 可能是我們做過的最具顛覆性的事情，在這個價位上為客戶提供了一個非常好的產品。但它也是，它的時機很方便，也很有幫助，因為它對融資的依賴很小。大多數其他轉換仍然依賴於融資。很多轉換，不是全部，但很多轉換確實發生在資產交易周圍，人們說我是買家和賣家，我要更換品牌和升級物業。我們仍然會轉換一堆其他類型的財產——它們沒有改變所有權，但沒有改變——較低的所有權變化會給它帶來一點壓力。

But Spark is, I guess, that we'll keep giving in the sense of unit growth because, again, you're talking about 20,000 rooms. You're talking about a $2 million sort of bogey for somebody to convert and get into our system versus even at the lowest price point, newbuilds that require financing and/or writing checks of $10 million, $15 million or, in most cases, much higher than that. So conversions will play a big part in it.

但我想，Spark 是我們將繼續提供單位增長的原因，因為你再次談論的是 20,000 個房間。你說的是 200 萬美元的價格，讓某人轉換並進入我們的系統，即使是在最低價位，也需要融資和/或開具 1000 萬美元、1500 萬美元或在大多數情況下很多的支票的新建築高於那個。因此，轉換將在其中發揮重要作用。

And as I already said, it's a big world. So what's going on here in the U.S. is with the banking system, unlike The Great Recession where the whole financial system around the world was sort of imperiled in free fall, this really at the moment is more of a U.S. thing, obviously touched Europe a little bit and Switzerland, but it has largely been sort of continued to be a U.S. thing. And so you have the opportunities around the whole rest of the world.

正如我已經說過的，這是一個很大的世界。所以在美國這裡發生的事情是銀行系統，不像大蕭條，當時世界各地的整個金融系統都處於自由落體的危險之中，目前這更像是美國的事情，顯然觸及了歐洲一點點和瑞士，但它在很大程度上一直是美國的事情。所以你在世界其他地方都有機會。

Notably, as I said, China, in the sense that China is probably taking a quarter or 2 more. So I think China won't contribute what I would have hoped it would this year, but I think it will be made up for next in '24 and '25 because the engines are really cranking up. It's just a process. So it will be conversions, international growth and increased market share of what does get done in the U.S.

值得注意的是，正如我所說，中國可能會多佔四分之一或兩個。所以我認為中國今年不會做出我希望的貢獻，但我認為它會在 24 年和 25 年得到彌補，因為引擎真的在啟動。這只是一個過程。因此，這將是美國所做的事情的轉換、國際增長和增加的市場份額。

The other thing that is going on is we launched Spark. We're getting ready, and I'll maybe tickle the ivories a little bit. We're getting ready to launch another brand sort of at the -- in the extended-stay space at the lower end, mid-scale, very low end of mid-scale, below home to that we have -- we've been working with our ownership community and customers on that while it will be a newbuild product, it will be a very efficient build cost.

另一件事是我們推出了 Spark。我們正在準備中，我可能會稍微撓一下象牙。我們正準備推出另一個品牌——在低端、中檔、非常低端的中檔長期住宿空間，低於我們擁有的水平——我們一直在與我們的所有權社區和客戶合作，雖然這將是一個新的產品，但這將是一個非常有效的構建成本。

So again, the things -- my history of this living through The Great Recession, all that is your lower cost to build products that have -- that are very high margin because people make the most money doing it and they're the lowest risk and they're the easiest financed. Those are the ones that get going the fastest. And so again, we didn't develop this brand that we're getting ready to launch, hopefully, in the next 30 or 60 days because of this. We launched because customers want it, owners want to build it. But again, it won't have any effect this year but starting probably the latter part of '24, more likely '25 as people look at a brand that can deliver just astronomical margins on a very efficient per unit build cost, we think it will build a lot of excitement.

所以，再一次，我經歷過大蕭條的歷史，所有這些都是你製造產品的成本較低 - 利潤率非常高，因為人們這樣做賺的錢最多，而且他們的風險最低他們是最容易融資的。那些是進展最快的。因此，我們沒有開發這個我們準備推出的品牌，希望在接下來的 30 或 60 天內因此而推出。我們推出是因為客戶想要它，業主想要建造它。但同樣，它今年不會有任何影響，但可能從 24 世紀後期開始，更有可能是 25 世紀，因為人們看到一個品牌可以以非常有效的單位建造成本提供天文利潤，我們認為會引起很多興奮。

Home2 has been off the hooks in demand throughout all of COVID and otherwise because people make -- such customers love it, it's very high margin. We think customers are going to love this. It's something different. It's at a lower price point. But the margins are much even higher than that. And so again, it will take time to gestate that, but we think that is a mega brand opportunity for us that as we think about more likely '25, '26, even in an environment that's been more challenging -- is more challenging from a financing point of view, as the financing markets come back and they always do, it's those products that really get done fastest. And so we feel good about being around 5% and headed back to 6% to 7% over the next couple of years, and it will be a combo platter of all of those things that you said and that I just spoke to.

在整個 COVID 期間，Home2 都擺脫了需求，否則因為人們製造——這樣的客戶喜歡它，它的利潤率非常高。我們認為客戶會喜歡這個。這是不同的東西。它處於較低的價格點。但利潤遠高於此。再次重申，這需要時間來孕育，但我們認為這對我們來說是一個巨大的品牌機會，因為我們認為更有可能的 '25、'26，即使在更具挑戰性的環境中 - 也更具挑戰性從融資的角度來看，隨著融資市場的回歸併且它們總是如此，真正完成最快的是那些產品。因此，我們對在未來幾年內保持在 5% 左右並回到 6% 到 7% 感覺很好，這將是你所說的和我剛剛談到的所有這些事情的組合拼盤。

And the next question is from Smedes Rose from Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗的 Smedes Rose。

I just wanted to ask you quickly on that extended-stay launch. We've seen a lot of products from different brands being launched due to the extended-stay segment. And I was just curious, what do you think is driving so much interest from customers? And are they abandoning another segment of mid-scale? We don't get data or at least in our case, we don't get extended-stay data specifically. We just see the chain scale data. I'm just wondering what sort of shifts you're seeing within that, that it's leading so many people to launch into that sector?

我只是想快速詢問您有關長期住宿發布的問題。由於長住細分市場，我們已經看到許多來自不同品牌的產品被推出。我只是很好奇，您認為是什麼引起了客戶如此大的興趣？他們是否正在放棄另一部分中檔產品？我們沒有得到數據，或者至少在我們的情況下，我們沒有得到具體的長期逗留數據。我們只看到鏈規模數據。我只是想知道你在其中看到了什麼樣的轉變，它導致這麼多人進入該領域？

We were already seeing it pre-COVID, where there was just a demand for workforce housing and people -- more mobility in their lives and they wanted to be places and work from different places. And they didn't -- they were going to be there long enough to commit. They're like, get an apartment and pay a 1 year's deposit and all that fun stuff. And so we are already seeing demand that was outstripping supply.

我們已經在 COVID 之前看到它，那裡只需要勞動力住房和人員——他們生活中的流動性更大，他們希望在不同的地方工作。他們沒有——他們將在那里呆足夠長的時間來做出承諾。他們就像，買一套公寓並支付 1 年的定金和所有有趣的東西。因此，我們已經看到供不應求的情況。

And then COVID hit. And while a lot of things have normalized, and I've talked about this on prior calls a bunch of times, the 1 thing that happened is it accelerated the idea of mobility. While the office environment is normalizing, a lot of people are going back. It's not exactly what it was. More people are going to be remote as a percentage of the workforce permanently. More are going to have flexibility and sort of different times of year, times of the week, Mondays and Fridays. And all of that is continuing to just -- as those patterns shift, it's building more and more demand against a limited amount of supply.

然後 COVID 來襲。雖然很多事情都已經正常化了，而且我在之前的電話中也多次談到過這個問題，但發生的一件事是它加速了流動性的想法。在辦公環境正常化的同時，很多人都回去了。它不完全是它是什麼。在勞動力中，越來越多的人將永遠處於偏遠地區。更多將具有靈活性和一年中的不同時間，一周中的時間，星期一和星期五。所有這一切都在繼續——隨著這些模式的轉變，它正在對有限的供應量建立越來越多的需求。

And so the fundamentals we think are just great. The way I think about the product that we're developing, and I'm getting ahead of myself, but it's coming really soon. I mean, down we have -- we've built it. We've done 99% of the work. It's almost a hybrid. It's like an apartment efficiency meets hotel. And I'd say it's almost like 60-40. It's more apartment efficiency. There's so many workforce housing needs that are just unmet with this kind of product for somebody who needs to be somewhere 30, 60, 90, 120 days.

因此，我們認為的基本面非常好。我考慮我們正在開發的產品的方式，我已經超越了自己，但它很快就會到來。我的意思是，我們有 - 我們已經建造了它。我們已經完成了 99% 的工作。這幾乎是一個混合體。這就像公寓效率符合酒店。我會說它幾乎是 60-40。這是更高的公寓效率。對於需要在某處居住 30、60、90、120 天的人來說，這種產品無法滿足如此多的勞動力住房需求。

So you're talking about average length of stay of probably 20 to 30 days on average versus most of the core extended-stay brands are like 5 to 10 maybe, somewhere in that range, if you look at the industry. So it's a different demand base, different types of locations, which is why we love it because we're not serving it, meaning it's not competitive with what we're doing with Home2 and certainly not competitive with Homewood because it's serving a totally different need, mostly in totally different markets. And as I said, we -- I didn't intend to go this far, sorry.

所以你說的平均停留時間可能是 20 到 30 天，而大多數核心長期停留品牌可能是 5 到 10 天，如果你看看這個行業的話，可能在這個範圍內的某個地方。所以這是一個不同的需求基礎，不同類型的地點，這就是我們喜歡它的原因，因為我們不提供它，這意味著它與我們在 Home2 上所做的事情沒有競爭力，當然也沒有與 Homewood 競爭，因為它提供完全不同的服務需要，主要是在完全不同的市場。正如我所說，我們 - 我不打算走這麼遠，抱歉。

But this is hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of hotels over time. This is not like we're going to do 50 or 100 of these. I mean, you'll wake up over time in 10 years, and will -- it will be like Home2. We'll have 4, 5, 6. We'll have a lot of these because we think the need is there now and growing. And we -- while a lot of people are doing things in this arena, I think we've proven by launching brands that we do -- uniquely have done it pretty well to launch brands and get to scale and build network effect, not just broadly for the company but within brands. And we've done that, I think, as well or better than anybody. And I think we have an opportunity to do it here.

但隨著時間的推移，這是成百上千家酒店。這不像我們要進行 50 次或 100 次這樣的操作。我的意思是，隨著時間的推移，你會在 10 年後醒來，而且會——它會像 Home2 一樣。我們將有 4、5、6 個。我們將有很多這樣的人，因為我們認為現在的需求還在增長。我們——雖然很多人都在這個領域做事，但我認為我們已經通過推出我們所做的品牌來證明——在推出品牌、擴大規模和建立網絡效應方面做得非常好，而不僅僅是廣泛適用於公司，但適用於品牌。我認為，我們已經做到了，甚至比任何人都做得更好。我認為我們有機會在這裡這樣做。

And our system delivers. The system delivers the highest market share in the business. So if you're an owner thinking about I'm going to build a similar product somewhere else, I mean, you're going to look at the system strength. And ultimately, I think, historically, people vote with their feet. They vote with a product that they think will work better from a customer point of view, ultimately, higher margins and drive higher share. And so we got to do it again, but we've got a pretty good track record of doing this stuff. We've spent a lot of time on this. And hopefully, by the next time we talk, it will be out of the shoot and we'll be talking about how many deals we got lined up.

我們的系統提供。該系統在該業務中提供了最高的市場份額。所以如果你是一個所有者，想著我要在其他地方製造一個類似的產品，我的意思是，你要看看系統的力量。最後，我認為，從歷史上看，人們是用腳投票的。他們投票選擇他們認為從客戶角度來看會更好用的產品，最終會帶來更高的利潤率和更高的市場份額。所以我們必須再做一次，但我們在做這件事方面有很好的記錄。我們在這上面花了很多時間。希望下次我們談話時，它會脫離拍攝，我們將談論我們有多少交易排隊。

And can I just ask you a quick other question? The difference between the gross room additions in the first quarter and then that room just seemed kind of wider than what we've seen. Is that -- was that just -- is that sort of a seasonal thing or was there something in particular on the deletion side that you can call out or...

我可以問你一個簡單的問題嗎？第一季度的總房間增加量與那個房間之間的差異似乎比我們所看到的要大。那是——那隻是——是那種季節性的東西，還是在刪除方面有什麼特別的東西你可以大聲疾呼或……

Are you talking about the difference between Q -- if you do Q1 in the guidance, Smedes?

Smedes，你是在談論 Q 之間的區別——如果你在指南中執行 Q1？

Well, just the first quarter gross room additions and then the net room additions that seem just...

好吧，只是第一季度的總房間增加量和淨房間增加量似乎只是……

No, there's -- no. Removals is right in line with normal. We'll end up about 1%, 1% and change for the year. Just the gross rooms from a timing perspective, I mean, I think I don't want to repeat what Chris said earlier on the call, but I think from a timing perspective, for the full year, gross room additions were lower in the first quarter and deletions were about the same. So that's the difference.

不，有——不。刪除是正確的，符合正常。我們最終將獲得大約 1%、1% 的收益，並在這一年發生變化。只是從時間的角度來看房間總數量，我的意思是，我不想重複克里斯早些時候在電話會議上所說的話，但我認為從時間的角度來看，對於全年來說，第一個房間的總房間增加量較低季度和刪除大致相同。這就是區別。

And the next question is from Stephen Grambling from Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Stephen Grambling。

Maybe following up on some of your comments about the new brand launches, Spark and then it sounds like another 1 in the extended-stay. When you think about going into some of these lower-end chain scales, I think many of the peers often see higher attrition rates or deletion rates. What can you do to ensure that the attrition rates from your brands are more resilient long term? And have you seen any evidence of that from your current lower chain scale brands, which is true?

也許跟進您對新品牌發布的一些評論，Spark 然後聽起來像是長期住宿中的另一個 1。當你考慮進入這些低端鏈規模中的一些時，我認為許多同行經常會看到更高的流失率或刪除率。您可以做些什麼來確保您的品牌的流失率在長期內更具彈性？您是否從您當前的較低規模連鎖品牌中看到任何證據，這是真的嗎？

No. You mean, attrition meaning losing hotels out of the system? No, I mean, here's the -- listen, and not to be too simplistic about it. But what we do is really made much easier by delivering commercial performance. So having great brands that resonate with customers, loyalty that connects the dots that customers are engaged with, product and service in those particular brands that really resonates with customers. And ultimately, our commercial engines and commercial strategies that deliver the highest level of market share.

不，你的意思是，流失意味著失去酒店系統？不，我的意思是，這是——聽著，不要過於簡單化。但是，通過提供商業性能，我們所做的事情真的變得容易多了。因此，擁有與客戶產生共鳴的偉大品牌，將客戶參與的點點滴滴聯繫起來的忠誠度，以及那些真正與客戶產生共鳴的特定品牌的產品和服務。最終，我們的商業引擎和商業戰略可提供最高水平的市場份額。

And so if you look at our -- if you look at like Tru or Hampton almost, I would say, almost 100%, I don't know, 90% to 100% of the deals that exit the system within those brands. And I don't think any Trus have exited the system that I'm aware of. It's a relatively new brand. I'm probably -- probably none. But Hampton is by our choice, meaning that their time is up. They're in a location or they're in a physical state that we just don't think works anymore. And so that's by our choice. We have very little attrition.

因此，如果你看看我們——如果你幾乎像 Tru 或漢普頓這樣看，我想說，幾乎 100%，我不知道，90% 到 100% 的交易在這些品牌中退出了系統。而且我認為沒有任何 Trus 退出我所知道的系統。這是一個相對較新的品牌。我可能——可能沒有。但是漢普頓是我們的選擇，這意味著他們的時間到了。他們處於我們認為不再有效的位置或物理狀態。所以這是我們的選擇。我們的減員很少。

And back to where I started, the reason we have very little attrition is our mega category brands are category killers. They drive incredibly high share. So as we think about Spark, as we think about our new extended-stay brand, we have to get it right, which we will. We have to drive really high share, which we will. The product has to really work for customers, which is what drives that. And people don't want to leave, right? So our history is super, super good in the mega categories. If you go through the whole list of all our extended -- Home2, Homewood, Hampton, Tru, the attrition there is almost all. The vast, vast majority of it is by our choice.

回到我開始的地方，我們幾乎沒有流失的原因是我們的大型品類品牌是品類殺手。他們推動了令人難以置信的高份額。因此，當我們考慮 Spark 時，當我們考慮我們新的長期住宿品牌時，我們必須把它做好，我們會的。我們必須推動非常高的份額，我們會的。該產品必須真正為客戶服務，這就是驅動力。人們不想離開，對吧？所以我們的歷史在大型類別中非常非常好。如果你查看我們所有擴展的整個列表——Home2、Homewood、Hampton、Tru，幾乎所有的減員。其中絕大多數是我們的選擇。

That's helpful context, and that's my 1 question.

這是有用的背景，這是我的第一個問題。

The next question is from David Katz from Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 David Katz。

I wanted to just go back to Spark because obviously, a lot of enthusiasm and success and it's unlike things that you've done before. If we look at the makeup of the deals that you've put together, I'd love some color on what's in there. Are those independents that are looking for a brand? Are those switching from other brands for 1 reason or another? Are any of the hotels switching within your system into it that may have otherwise departed for 1 reason or another?

我只想回到 Spark，因為很明顯，充滿熱情和成功，這與你以前做過的事情不同。如果我們看看你放在一起的交易的構成，我會喜歡其中的一些顏色。是那些正在尋找品牌的獨立人士嗎？那些從其他品牌轉換過來的人是出於某種原因還是其他原因？是否有任何酒店在您的系統中切換到它，但可能因某種原因而離開？

Yes. Of the 300 -- I'll get this direction. Of the 300 bang around, it's -- I would say it's almost all. It's very little of us. So there are a few Hamptons in -- of the 300, so a teeny number of Hamptons that we would probably otherwise say will exit the system that we think for Spark will work even though they wouldn't work for Hampton. But that's a teeny tiny amount. The rest of it is almost -- there's a little bit of independent on that data point, but it's almost all coming from other brands in that -- in the economy space and spread around what you would guess, but -- and I have some of that data but I'm not sharing it.

是的。在這 300 個中——我會得到這個方向。在這 300 次爆炸中，它是——我想說這幾乎是全部。我們很少。因此，在 300 個中有幾個漢普頓，所以我們可能會說的極少數漢普頓將退出我們認為對 Spark 有效的系統，即使它們不適用於漢普頓。但這是一個很小的數目。其餘部分幾乎 - 在該數據點上有一點獨立性，但它幾乎全部來自其他品牌 - 在經濟領域並圍繞你的猜測展開，但是 - 我有一些那些數據，但我不分享它。

Fair enough and understood. My follow-up is when we look at the revenue intensity of adding in this category, how does that measure up with your other brands? Obviously, the upper upscale, a unit is generating more, right? But how does the fee structure and the revenue intensity of this measure up and add to your system?

足夠公平和理解。我的後續行動是，當我們查看添加到該類別中的收入強度時，這與您的其他品牌相比如何？很明顯，上層高檔，一個單位是發電多吧？但是，這種費用結構和收入強度如何衡量並添加到您的系統中？

Yes. The fee structure is quite similar to other fee structures. They are smaller and it is at a lower rate. We think the rate here is probably $80 to $90 versus the net Tru, which is $120 -- in the $120s with Hampton being at like $140. So it's -- they're a similar size so a lot of the Trus and Hamptons, they're at a lower ADR by design. And so yes, per pound fees will be a little bit less and certainly versus upper upscale but the thing you have to remember in our world is we're trying to create a network effect. So this is a massive customer acquisition tool for us.

是的。費用結構與其他費用結構非常相似。它們更小，而且速度更低。我們認為這裡的價格可能是 80 到 90 美元，而淨 Tru 是 120 美元——在 120 美元左右，漢普頓大約是 140 美元。所以它 - 它們的尺寸相似，所以很多 Trus 和 Hamptons，它們在設計上處於較低的 ADR。所以是的，每磅費用會少一點，當然與高檔相比，但在我們的世界中你必須記住的是我們正在努力創造網絡效應。所以這對我們來說是一個巨大的客戶獲取工具。

There's 70 million or 80 million people traveling in this segment, half of whom are younger people that travel and this is all they can afford. And while we serve some of them, we're not serving many of them. So the opportunity is for us to get them hooked on our system early by giving them the best product that they can find in the economy space because every single hotel, every customer-facing element of the hotel has to be done or it doesn't get our name. And we regulate the gate. Nobody comes in. Nobody passes through the gate until that's done.

這個細分市場有 7000 萬或 8000 萬人在旅行，其中一半是年輕人，他們只能負擔得起旅行。雖然我們為他們中的一些人服務，但我們並沒有為他們中的許多人服務。因此，我們有機會通過為他們提供他們在經濟空間中可以找到的最好的產品來讓他們儘早迷上我們的系統，因為每家酒店，酒店的每個面向客戶的元素都必須完成，否則就不會得到我們的名字。我們調節大門。沒有人進來。在完成之前沒有人通過大門。

And so the other thing to remember is it's an infinite yield. So we built -- we bring in tens of millions of new customers that are going to trade up. They're going to grow up and they're going to use our other products. They're going to trade in and around our products. And we built this brand with a lot of hard work and elbow grease from the standpoint of the deals that we're getting. While they may be per pound a little lighter, we're not paying for them. I mean, thus the infinite yield. There's no investment. We continue to build these incremental fee streams.

所以要記住的另一件事是它是無限的收益。所以我們建立了 - 我們帶來了數千萬將要進行交易的新客戶。他們會長大，他們會使用我們的其他產品。他們將圍繞我們的產品進行交易。從我們獲得的交易的角度來看，我們通過大量的辛勤工作和肘部潤滑脂建立了這個品牌。雖然它們每磅的重量可能更輕一些，但我們不會為它們買單。我的意思是，因此無限的產量。沒有投資。我們繼續建立這些增量費用流。

And when you add up what the potential, I mean, I suspect 30 years ago, somebody said that about Hampton. Well, I mean, Hampton at that time was a $50 rate, and it's 100-, 120-room hotel. How much money can that make you? Well, Hampton is a value well into the billions of dollars because it turns out when you do a few thousand of them, it adds up. And the ultimate potential of Spark is bigger than Hampton because it's a bigger slice of the pie. So we're very excited about it. We think it is going to add not just new unit growth, but it's going to add significantly to earnings as it ramps up and ultimately to the overall value of the company.

當你把潛力加起來時，我的意思是，我懷疑 30 年前，有人對漢普頓說過這樣的話。嗯，我的意思是，漢普頓當時的房價是 50 美元，而且是擁有 100 間、120 間客房的酒店。那能賺多少錢？好吧，漢普頓的價值高達數十億美元，因為事實證明，當你做幾千個時，它就會加起來。 Spark 的最終潛力比 Hampton 更大，因為它所佔的份額更大。所以我們對此感到非常興奮。我們認為它不僅會增加新的單位增長，而且會隨著收益的增加而顯著增加收益，並最終增加公司的整體價值。

Sounds like no meaningful key money there either?

聽起來那裡也沒有有意義的禮金？

No.

不。

Yes, I think -- David, just to add just a little bit, and Chris covered it, yes. I mean, the capital intensity of our -- in our business is much higher at the upper end, right? So the higher you go in the chain scale, the more the deals are competitive and you're contributing capital. And the other thing I'd say is why I think -- sort of working with you for a while, I think where you were headed with that.

是的，我想——大衛，只是補充一點，克里斯涵蓋了它，是的。我的意思是，我們業務的資本密集度在高端要高得多，對嗎？所以你在連鎖規模上走得越高，交易就越有競爭力，你投入的資金就越多。我要說的另一件事是為什麼我認為 - 有點和你一起工作了一段時間，我認為你的目標是什麼。

I think from a revenue intensity perspective, Chris described it. As you layer in these lower fee per room hotels, mathematically, of course, your fee per room does go down. But when we model it out over a long period of time, you'd be surprised the fees per room do not...

我認為從收入強度的角度來看，克里斯描述了它。當您將這些每間客房費用較低的酒店分層時，從數學上講，當然，您的每間客房費用確實會下降。但是，當我們在很長一段時間內對其進行建模時，您會驚訝於每間客房的費用並沒有……

Keep going up.

繼續往上走。

They keep going up over time, and we continue to grow at what we often talk about as algorithm. So if you take same-store sales plus NUG, the fees per room and the fee growth continues at that pace. And part of that is because of the non-RevPAR-driven fees that Chris mentioned earlier in the call, which we think will continue to grow at a higher rate than algorithm. So you put that all in your model and it's relative -- it's surprisingly steady/continues growth.

隨著時間的推移，它們不斷上升，我們繼續在我們經常談論的算法中成長。因此，如果您採用同店銷售額加上 NUG，則每間客房的費用和費用增長將繼續保持這種速度。部分原因是克里斯在電話會議早些時候提到的非 RevPAR 驅動的費用，我們認為這將繼續以高於算法的速度增長。所以你把所有這些都放在你的模型中，它是相對的——它出人意料地穩定/持續增長。

There is no year where fees per room are going down just because the arithmetic. And we continue to have RevPAR growth on the existing pool of assets that continues to go up. And yes, fees per room as we model it 5, 10 years out, just keep going up.

沒有哪一年每間客房的費用會因為算術而下降。我們繼續在繼續上升的現有資產池中實現 RevPAR 增長。是的，我們模擬 5 年、10 年後的每間客房費用會繼續上漲。

The next question is from Robin Farley from UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Robin Farley。

I wanted to ask a little bit about the business transient performance in the quarter. I know you talked about RevPAR being ahead of 2019 levels. But I wonder if you could give us a sense of where either occupancy or number of business transient nights in the quarter compared to Q1 of '19. It seemed like from kind of broader industry trends, that Q4 didn't show that much sequential improvement from Q3 in terms of that change versus 2019.

我想問一下本季度的業務瞬態表現。我知道你談到 RevPAR 領先於 2019 年的水平。但我想知道您是否可以讓我們了解與 19 年第一季度相比，本季度的入住率或商務過夜數量。從更廣泛的行業趨勢來看，與 2019 年相比，第四季度與第三季度相比並沒有顯示出太大的連續改善。

And maybe you'll say, of course, it may not matter at all when you have RevPAR performance as strong as what you have. So I'm certainly not saying it's not a strong quarter, but I'm kind of curious what's going on with that business transient night piece event.

也許你會說，當然，當你的 RevPAR 表現和你擁有的一樣強時，這可能根本不重要。所以我當然不是說這不是一個強勁的季度，但我有點好奇那個商業短暫的夜間事件發生了什麼。

Yes. On a global basis, business transient, actually fourth quarter to first quarter ticked up. So on a -- it was about -- in the fourth quarter, about [1.03%] and it went to [1.04%]. But importantly, on an aggregate occupancy basis in the first quarter, for the first time, it actually got back or slightly above where it was at the prior peak. Now that's not a U.S., that's a global number.

是的。在全球範圍內，業務瞬息萬變，實際上第四季度到第一季度略有上升。因此，在第四季度，大約是 [1.03%]，然後升至 [1.04%]。但重要的是，在第一季度的總入住率基礎上，它實際上第一次回到或略高於之前的峰值。現在那不是美國，而是全球數字。

So why is that happening in the face of everything you're reading? And it's really simple, which is why I said it in the comments, it's SME. It's like what we're all filtering through is big corporate America. Big corporate America is worried about the world, all the uncertainty and maybe curbing some of their appetite for travel. Having said that, I've met with -- we had a big customer event, and I didn't get that impression even at a big corporate America. I think incrementally year-over-year, they're all traveling more but maybe not as much as they would have thought.

那麼，面對您正在閱讀的所有內容，為什麼會發生這種情況呢？而且它真的很簡單，這就是為什麼我在評論中說它，它是 SME。就好像我們都在過濾美國大公司一樣。美國大企業擔心世界，擔心所有的不確定性，可能會抑制他們對旅行的一些興趣。話雖如此，我遇到過——我們有一個大型客戶活動，即使是在美國的一家大公司，我也沒有那種印象。我認為逐年遞增，他們都在旅行更多，但可能沒有他們想像的那麼多。

But the SMEs continue, which are 85% of our business, continue to perform really, really well. And the big corporates weren't really back in any event. And so since they had not come back to prior levels, while they may recover more slowly, they're not, my impression from talking to a bunch of them, they're not really cutting because they already had cut so much and they hadn't built it back. They're just -- maybe it's flattening for them.

但占我們業務 85% 的中小企業繼續表現得非常非常好。無論如何，大公司並沒有真正回歸。因此，由於他們沒有回到以前的水平，雖然他們可能恢復得更慢，但我從與他們中的一群人交談中得到的印像是，他們並沒有真正削減，因為他們已經削減了很多，而且他們沒有重建它。他們只是 - 也許這對他們來說是扁平化的。

But I said it many times over the last few years. We have, by choice -- we were always quite dependent 80% of our business was SMEs. It's 85% now by choice, meaning we have shifted our mix because it's higher rated business, it's more resilient in the sense that it's more fragmented by the very nature of what it is. So business transient is alive and well. And I'd say in the first quarter, both the price was above and volume was at or slightly above, and that trend continues into Q2 although we're early in Q2.

但是在過去的幾年裡我說過很多次。我們有選擇——我們總是非常依賴我們 80% 的業務是中小企業。現在是 85% 的選擇，這意味著我們已經改變了我們的組合，因為它是更高評級的業務，它更具彈性，因為它的本質更加分散。所以業務瞬態是活得很好。我要說的是，在第一季度，價格都高於價格，成交量也處於或略高於水平，而且這種趨勢一直持續到第二季度，儘管我們在第二季度初。

Okay, great. Very helpful. And then just the other question, kind of a small 1 is your distribution through OTAs, I have to imagine that as business transient is coming back, that your OTA distribution is moving down compared to last year, just given that leisure is not as big a percent of total?

好的，太好了。很有幫助。然後是另一個問題，有點小的 1 是你通過 OTA 的分配，我不得不想像隨著業務短暫性的回歸，你的 OTA 分配與去年相比正在下降，只是考慮到休閒沒有那麼大佔總數的百分比？

It's normalizing. It's slightly elevated relative to pre-COVID but not much and has come down a bunch. And we expect probably by the end of the year, certainly into next, it will be normalized with where it was, which is where we want it to be.

它正在正常化。相對於 COVID 之前，它略有升高，但幅度不大，而且已經下降了很多。我們預計可能到今年年底，當然到明年，它會在原來的位置正常化，這就是我們想要的位置。

The next question is from Brandt Montour from Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Brandt Montour。

I was wondering if you could just dig in a little bit to the drivers of the conversion activity, taking Spark out of it. Chris, you mentioned potentially lower hotel transaction activity from financing headwinds putting pressure as well as financing being a headwind in and of itself for doing non-Spark hire and conversions. I guess, could you stack that up against some of the maybe positive tailwinds, perhaps enforcement of brand standards across the industry, foresee more trade down or even more independents getting more nervous looking for brands? How do you look at all those factors on a net basis later into the year?

我想知道您是否可以深入了解轉換活動的驅動因素，將 Spark 從中剔除。克里斯，你提到可能會降低酒店交易活動，因為融資逆風會帶來壓力，而融資本身就是進行非 Spark 租賃和轉換的逆風。我想，你能否將其與一些可能積極的順風相提並論，也許是整個行業品牌標準的執行，預見到更多的貿易下降，或者甚至更多的獨立人士變得更加緊張地尋找品牌？您如何看待今年晚些時候的所有這些因素？

Yes, I'll take this one, Brandt. I think outside of Spark as we've covered that, I think you've got a couple of factors. One is yes, in sort of an environment where people are expecting demand to soften, they tend to seek out brands more often, and obviously, they tend to seek out the stronger brand. So it's being driven by somewhat of demand for independent hotels converting to brands.

是的，我要這個，Brandt。我認為在我們已經討論過的 Spark 之外，我認為你有幾個因素。一個是肯定的，在人們預期需求疲軟的環境中，他們傾向於更頻繁地尋找品牌，而且顯然，他們傾向於尋找更強大的品牌。因此，這是由獨立酒店向品牌轉型的需求推動的。

And then I think the other factor is in an environment where credit's tighter, a cash-flowing hotel, right, so acquiring a hotel and that's already cash-flowing, it's easier to finance than new construction. So I think those are the 2 primary drivers. And then you think about some of the things that are going on around the world. But they're generally driven by transactions and generally in a softening demand environment, easier to finance and more demand for the branded systems.

然後我認為另一個因素是在信貸緊縮的環境中，一家現金流酒店，對，所以收購一家已經有現金流的酒店，比新建酒店更容易融資。所以我認為這是兩個主要驅動因素。然後你會想到世界各地正在發生的一些事情。但它們通常是由交易驅動的，而且通常處於需求疲軟的環境中，更容易融資，對品牌系統的需求也更大。

The next question is from Bill Crow from Raymond James.

下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Bill Crow。

As we think about the change to your guidance for 2023, how much of that is driven by areas outside the U.S.? And has there really been any change or any positive change to U.S. expectations?

當我們考慮您對 2023 年指導的變化時，其中有多少是由美國以外的地區推動的？美國的期望真的有任何改變或任何積極的變化嗎？

Yes. I think, Bill, what you're seeing is it's kind of -- it's across the board. It's positive change to all regions. Largely, I think Chris covered this earlier in the call, largely concentrated with the demand strength continuing into the second quarter and us taking the second quarter up a little bit, a little bit in the third quarter and then the -- and if you think about pushing out the anticipated slowdown in the back half of the year, but there is improvement in the outlook in all regions, including the U.S.

是的。我認為，比爾，你所看到的是——它是全面的。這對所有地區都是積極的變化。很大程度上，我認為 Chris 在電話會議的早些時候談到了這一點，主要集中在需求強勁持續到第二季度，我們將第二季度提高一點，第三季度提高一點，然後 - 如果你認為關於推遲今年下半年預期的放緩，但包括美國在內的所有地區的前景都有所改善

A follow-up. I'm going to actually switch my follow-up, and I want to actually address something you just said, Chris, which is that large corporates seem to be flat in their demand. And I'm just curious whether this early in the recovery, and I know there are issues going on in tech and financial services in particular, but does this give credence to that argument that business travel never fully recovers?

跟進。我實際上要改變我的後續行動，我想真正解決你剛才說的問題，克里斯，那就是大公司的需求似乎持平。我只是好奇這是否處於復蘇初期，而且我知道技術和金融服務領域尤其存在問題，但這是否證實了商務旅行永遠不會完全恢復的論點？

I mean, I don't think so. Well, the #1 prima facie evidence it has. So I mean, Bill, what I just finished on a couple of questions ago, in the data in the first quarter, business travel has already recovered. I think what it means for us is in the intermediate term, as you get more certainty in the environment, there's upside in business travel, meaning we've done a good job of shifting to SMEs. With that shift, we're sort of, on a volume basis, back to where we were. Rate base is higher.

我的意思是，我不這麼認為。好吧，它擁有的#1 初步證據。所以我的意思是，比爾，我剛剛完成了幾個問題，在第一季度的數據中，商務旅行已經恢復。我認為這對我們來說意味著中期，隨著你對環境的確定性越來越強，商務旅行也有好處，這意味著我們在向中小企業轉移方面做得很好。隨著這種轉變，我們在數量上有點回到原來的狀態。利率基數較高。

The big corporates still have to travel. By the way, the big corporates are also not 1 size fits all. It's really where you see the impact is technology, bank and consulting. If you look at a lot of the other big corporate sectors, they're still growing, but those sectors weighed it down. As those sectors stabilize and start to think about the future and being competitive and getting their sales forces back out and get out of cost-cutting mode, which they will, they always do, I look at it as upside.

大公司仍然需要出差。順便說一句，大公司也不是放之四海而皆準的。你真正看到影響的地方是技術、銀行和諮詢。如果你看看許多其他大公司部門，它們仍在增長，但這些部門拖累了它。隨著這些行業穩定下來並開始考慮未來並保持競爭力並讓他們的銷售人員退出並擺脫成本削減模式，他們會，他們總是這樣做，我認為這是有利的。

So I think when you wake up in a year or 2 and we're in a little -- whenever we get to a more certain environment, hopefully it's sooner than later, I think the opportunity will be that business travel, both volume and price, will be higher than the prior peak. I think the same thing for the group business. I think this has done -- what's happened in the last 3 years has done nothing but reinforced. I mean, we're definitely benefiting from a lot of pent-up demand, but it's done nothing but reinforce, as I talk to all of our group customers and the like, that the need for people to be congregating to do the things that they do in culture and collaboration and innovation and all of those fun things.

所以我認為，當你在一兩年後醒來時，我們處於一點點——每當我們進入一個更確定的環境時，希望它早於晚，我認為機會將是商務旅行，無論是數量還是價格, 將高於先前的峰值。我認為集團業務也是如此。我認為這已經完成了——過去 3 年發生的事情除了加強之外什麼也沒做。我的意思是，我們確實從大量被壓抑的需求中受益，但在我與我們所有的集團客戶等交談時，它只是強化了人們聚集在一起做那些事情的必要性他們在文化、協作和創新以及所有這些有趣的事情上做。

So I kind of famously said when we get through this in like April, May of 2020, I think it will look a lot more like it did than it does. And I think that's -- I still think that. And I think the data largely supports it. If you look at the business mix, like this quarter versus pre-COVID and the big segments of business transient, leisure transient and group, we're within a point. I mean, right now, the only difference is leisure is a point higher and group's a point lower. Otherwise, it's about where it was, right? And that's because group takes time to sort of -- to come back.

所以我說過一句名言，當我們在 2020 年 4 月、5 月完成這項工作時，我認為它看起來會比實際情況更像。我認為那是——我仍然這麼認為。我認為數據在很大程度上支持它。如果你看一下業務組合，比如本季度與 COVID 之前的業務組合，以及商務瞬態、休閒瞬態和團體的大部分，我們就在一個點之內。我的意思是，現在，唯一的區別是休閒高一點，團體低一點。否則，它是關於它的位置，對嗎？那是因為團隊需要時間來恢復。

And in the meantime, leisure has been strong. But ultimately, as we get strong high-rated groups back, we will continue to mix more of that in. So I do not personally believe there is credence to that argument. I think the data supports that argument at this moment.

與此同時，休閒一直很旺盛。但最終，隨著我們重新獲得強大的高評級群體，我們將繼續混合更多此類內容。因此，我個人認為這種說法不可信。我認為目前數據支持該論點。

Look forward to seeing you early next month.

期待下月初見到你。

Yes. Same.

是的。相同的。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the call back to Chris Nassetta for any additional or closing remarks.

女士們，先生們，我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將電話轉回給 Chris Nassetta，以徵求任何補充意見或結束意見。

Thank you, Chad. Thanks, everybody, for the time today. Interesting times with all -- the word of the day is uncertainty. But as you can see, we feel very good about what we delivered in the first quarter. We feel great about the second quarter. Frankly, we feel pretty good about the full year. We're making sure that we're keeping our eyes wide open about what's going on in the world. But we continue to do well and deliver, and most importantly, return more and more capital, which we'll continue to do. So thank you for the time, and we look forward to catching up with you after the quarter.

謝謝你，乍得。謝謝大家，今天的時間。所有人都度過了有趣的時光——今天的關鍵詞是不確定性。但正如您所看到的，我們對第一季度的交付感到非常滿意。我們對第二季度感覺很好。坦率地說，我們對全年感覺相當不錯。我們確保我們對世界上正在發生的事情睜大眼睛。但我們繼續做得很好並交付，最重要的是，回報越來越多的資本，我們將繼續這樣做。所以感謝你的時間，我們期待在本季度後與你見面。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。