希爾頓酒店 (HLT) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to the Hilton Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

您好，歡迎參加希爾頓 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Jill Chapman, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Development. You may begin.

我現在想將會議交給投資者關係和企業發展高級副總裁吉爾·查普曼 (Jill Chapman)。你可以開始了。

Thank you, MJ. Welcome to Hilton's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. Before we begin, we would like to remind you that our discussions this morning will include forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those indicated in the forward-looking statements, and forward-looking statements made today speak only to our expectations as of today. We undertake no obligation to update or revise these statements. For a discussion of some of the risk factors that could cause actual results to differ, please see the Risk Factors section of our most recently filed Form 10-K.

謝謝你，喬丹。歡迎參加希爾頓 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。在開始之前，我們想提醒您，我們今天上午的討論將包括前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與前瞻性聲明中所示的結果有重大差異，今天發表的前瞻性聲明僅代表我們截至目前為止的預期。我們不承擔更新或修改這些聲明的義務。有關可能導致實際結果不同的一些風險因素的討論，請參閱我們最近提交的表格 10-K 的風險因素部分。

In addition, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures on this call. You can find reconciliations of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures discussed in today's call in our earnings press release and on our website at ir.hilton.com.

此外，我們將在本次電話會議上提及某些非公認會計準則財務指標。您可以在我們的收益新聞稿和我們的網站 ir.hilton.com 上找到今天電話會議中討論的非 GAAP 與 GAAP 財務指標的調整表。

This morning, Chris Nassetta, our President and Chief Executive Officer, will provide an overview of the current operating environment and the company's outlook. Kevin Jacobs, our Chief Financial Officer and President, Global Development, will then review our third quarter results and discuss our expectations for the year. Following their remarks, we'll be happy to take your questions.

今天早上，我們的總裁兼執行長 Chris Nassetta 將概述當前的營運環境和公司的前景。我們的財務長兼全球發展總裁 Kevin Jacobs 隨後將回顧我們第三季的業績並討論我們對今年的預期。在他們的發言之後，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

With that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Chris.

至此，我很高興將電話轉給克里斯。

Thank you, Jill. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us today. I wanted to start today by saying that our thoughts are with all of those impacted by the tragic events that are unfolding in the Middle East. Our priority remains the safety and security of our team members and guests as well as helping in any way we can to support the relief efforts for the humanitarian crisis in the region through a number of organizations, including the International Committee for the Red Cross.

謝謝你，吉爾。大家早安，感謝您今天加入我們。首先，我想說，我們對所有受到中東正在發生的悲劇影響的人表示同情。我們的首要任務仍然是確保團隊成員和客人的安全，並透過包括紅十字國際委員會在內的多個組織盡一切努力支持該地區人道危機的救援工作。

Turning to results. We're pleased to report another strong quarter, with system-wide RevPAR, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS all above the high end of our guidance ranges. The strength of our brands, power of our commercial engines and resilient business model continue to drive strong top and bottom line performance. This supports meaningful free cash flow generation and greater shareholder returns. Year-to-date, we've returned more than $1.9 billion to shareholders, and we remain on track to return $2.4 billion to $2.6 billion for the full year.

轉向結果。我們很高興地報告又一個強勁的季度，整個系統的 RevPAR、調整後 EBITDA 和調整後每股收益均高於我們指引範圍的高端。我們的品牌實力、商業引擎的力量和富有彈性的商業模式繼續推動強勁的營收和利潤表現。這有助於產生有意義的自由現金流和更大的股東回報。今年迄今為止，我們已向股東返還超過 19 億美元，並且全年預計將實現 24 億至 26 億美元的返還。

In the quarter, system-wide RevPAR increased 6.8% year-over-year, boosted by strong international performance and continued recovery in business transient and group. Demand improved across all segments and regions, with system-wide occupancy for the quarter reaching our highest level post pandemic and only 2 percentage points off prior peak levels, with September just 1 point shy of 2019.

本季度，得益於強勁的國際業績以及瞬態業務和集團業務的持續復甦，全系統的 RevPAR 較去年同期成長 6.8%。所有細分市場和地區的需求均有所改善，本季全系統入住率達到大流行後的最高水平，僅比之前的峰值水平低 2 個百分點，其中 9 月份僅比 2019 年低 1 個百分點。

Group RevPAR rose 8% year-over-year, outperforming leisure and business transient RevPAR growth of 5% each. Compared to 2019, system-wide RevPAR grew 11.4% in the quarter with all segments accelerating sequentially versus the second quarter. Overall performance was driven by both rate and occupancy. Steady rate growth and rising demand drove leisure RevPAR up 29% versus 2019, improving roughly 300 basis points versus the second quarter. Business transient RevPAR grew 7%, with both large and small accounts improving. Adjusting for holiday and calendar shifts, mid-week RevPAR increased nearly 500 basis points versus the second quarter.

集團 RevPAR 較去年同期成長 8%，優於休閒商務瞬態 RevPAR 各 5% 的成長。與 2019 年相比，本季全系統 RevPAR 成長了 11.4%，所有細分市場均較第二季連續加速成長。整體表現由房價和入住率共同推動。穩定的成長率和不斷增長的需求推動休閒 RevPAR 較 2019 年成長 29%，較第二季提高約 300 個基點。業務瞬間每間可用收入 (RevPAR) 成長了 7%，大型和小型客戶均有所改善。在根據假期和日曆變更進行調整後，周中 RevPAR 比第二季增加了近 500 個基點。

On the group side, RevPAR exceeded 2019 peak levels for the first full quarter since the pandemic, and we continue to see positive group booking trends in the quarter for all future periods. Group position for 2024 is now up 18% year-over-year, and lead demand in the quarter for all future arrivals increased more than 15%.

在團體方面，自大流行以來的第一個完整季度，每間可用客房收入 (RevPAR) 超過了 2019 年的峰值水平，我們繼續看到該季度未來所有時期的積極團體預訂趨勢。集團 2024 年的持股量現已年增 18%，本季所有未來抵達的鉛需求成長超過 15%。

As we look to the fourth quarter, we expect continued strength in international markets, along with continued improvement in business transient and group demand to drive further acceleration in RevPAR compared to 2019, better-than-expected third quarter performance and increased expectations for the fourth quarter, partially driven by better group bookings. As a result, we now expect full year RevPAR growth of 12% to 12.5%.

展望第四季度，我們預期國際市場將持續強勁，加上業務瞬態和集團需求的持續改善，將推動每間可用客房收入（RevPAR）較2019 年進一步加速，第三季度業績好於預期，第第四季度的預期也會提高季度，部分原因是團體預訂更好。因此，我們現在預計全年 RevPAR 將成長 12% 至 12.5%。

Turning to development. We saw another quarter of robust signings with a near-record 35,500 rooms signed, increasing 80% year-over-year. Our pipeline now stands at the highest in our history, totaling 457,000 rooms, up 4% versus the second quarter and 10% year-over-year. Signings in the quarter spanned our portfolio, demonstrating the benefits of a diversified industry-leading family of brands. Conversions accounted for 35% of signings increasing sequentially versus the second quarter. Overall, we remain on track to deliver the highest annual signings in our company's history, surpassing 2019 record levels by double-digit percentage points.

轉向發展。我們看到另一個季度的強勁簽約，簽約客房數達到近紀錄的 35,500 間，比去年同期成長 80%。目前，我們的待售客房數量達到了歷史最高水平，客房總數達到 457,000 間，比第二季度增長 4%，比去年同期增長 10%。本季度的簽約涵蓋了我們的產品組合，展示了多元化的行業領先品牌系列的優勢。與第二季相比，轉換次數佔簽約增量的 35%。總體而言，我們仍有望實現公司歷史上最高的年度簽約量，比 2019 年的創紀錄水平高出兩位數百分點。

We also delivered another strong quarter of construction starts, with every major region exceeding our expectations, and the U.S. in particular, delivering its strongest quarter of start since Q1 2020, up 18% year-over-year. Roughly half of our pipeline is currently under construction, and we continue to have more rooms under construction than any other hotel company, accounting for more than 20% of industry share.

我們還實現了另一個強勁的季度開工，每個主要地區都超出了我們的預期，尤其是美國，實現了自 2020 年第一季以來最強勁的季度開工，同比增長 18%。目前，我們大約有一半的在建客房正在建設中，並且我們的在建客房數量繼續超過任何其他酒店公司，佔行業份額的 20% 以上。

In the quarter, we opened 107 hotels totaling nearly 16,000 rooms, up 22% year-over-year and 12% versus the second quarter. We achieved several milestones in the quarter, including the opening of our 700th hotel in the Asia Pacific region, and we celebrated our 60th anniversary in Japan. We also opened our 300th lifestyle hotel and our 50,000th lifestyle room, including the global debut of Tempo by Hilton. Designed with well-being in mind, the brand's first property is now open in the middle of Times Square, New York as part of the TSX development.

本季度，我們新開飯店 107 家，客房總數近 16,000 間，年增 22%，較上季成長 12%。我們在本季度實現了多個里程碑，包括在亞太地區開設第 700 家酒店，並在日本慶祝了我們的 60 週年紀念日。我們還開設了第 300 家生活風格飯店和第 50,000 間生活方式客房，其中包括全球首次亮相的 Tempo by Hilton。作為多倫多證券交易所開發項目的一部分，該品牌的第一家酒店現已在紐約時代廣場中部開業，以健康為設計理念。

Additionally, Canopy launched in the south of France with the opening of the Canopy by Hilton Cannes, making Hilton's entry into the city and the latest addition to a growing portfolio of Canopy properties across Europe. Curio celebrated its debut in Savannah, Georgia. Tapestry increased its portfolio with the opening of the Bankers Alley Hotel in Nashville, and Motto expanded its signature flexible design and local vibe with its second hotel in New York City.

此外，隨著坎城希爾頓嘉悅裡酒店(Canopy by Hilton Cannes) 的開業，嘉悅裡(Canopy) 也進駐了法國南部，這使得希爾頓進軍這座城市，並成為歐洲不斷壯大的嘉悅裡(Canopy) 酒店組合的最新成員。 Curio 在喬治亞州薩凡納慶祝其首次亮相。 Tapestry 在納許維爾開設 Bankers Alley Hotel，擴大了其產品組合，而 Motto 在紐約市開設了第二家酒店，擴大了其標誌性的靈活設計和當地氛圍。

During the quarter, we also celebrated the debut of our newest cost-effective conversion brand, Spark by Hilton. The grand opening of the Spark by Hilton Mystic, Groton in Connecticut solidified our foray into the premium economy segment. I just visited the property last week and was blown away. I would encourage any of you that are in the area to go see it. Opening just 8 months after launch, Spark is the fastest announcement to market brand in Hilton's history. With more than 400 deals in negotiation, we think this is the start of a journey to reshape the premium economy segment while expanding our customer and our owner base.

在本季度，我們也慶祝了最新的經濟高效轉換品牌 Spark by Hilton 的首次亮相。康乃狄克州格羅頓市米斯蒂克希爾頓 Spark 飯店的盛大開幕鞏固了我們進軍高端經濟艙市場的步伐。我上週剛參觀過這處房產，並被震撼了。我鼓勵該地區的任何人都去看看。 Spark 推出後僅 8 個月就開業，是希爾頓史上最快宣布上市的品牌。目前正在談判的交易超過 400 項，我們認為這是重塑高端經濟艙領域、同時擴大我們的客戶和業主基礎的旅程的開始。

Announced just 5 months ago, Project H3 also continues to see tremendous demand with 350 deals in negotiation. In fact, later today, we're breaking ground on the first-ever property in Kokomo, Indiana, which we expect to open in late summer 2024. Positive momentum in openings has continued into the fourth quarter with several notable openings in October, including the 540-room Hilton Cancun Mar Caribe, an all-inclusive resort. Tomorrow, we'll announce and open a 1,000-room conversion property in the northeast part of the United States. We forecast conversions will account for approximately 30% of full year openings.

僅僅 5 個月前宣布的 H3 項目也繼續吸引巨大的需求，有 350 筆交易正在談判中。事實上，今天晚些時候，我們正在印第安納州科科莫的第一處房產破土動工，預計將於2024 年夏末開業。開業的積極勢頭持續到第四季度，10 月份有幾處引人注目的開業，包括坎昆加勒比希爾頓酒店 (Hilton Cancun Mar Caribe) 是一家擁有 540 間客房的全包式度假村。明天，我們將宣佈在美國東北部開設一處擁有 1,000 間客房的改建酒店。我們預計轉換率將佔全年空缺職位的 30% 左右。

For the full year, we continue to expect net unit growth of approximately 5%. We believe we have hit an inflection point and expect a meaningful uptick in openings in the fourth quarter with continued positive momentum into next year. With forecast for our highest level of signings in the air, the largest pipeline in our history, nearing the largest under-construction pipeline in our history with identified 2024 openings and positive momentum in conversions, we are confident in our ability to accelerate net unit growth to 5.5% to 6% next year and to return to our prior 6% to 7% growth rate.

對於全年，我們繼續預計淨銷量成長約為 5%。我們相信我們已經達到了一個拐點，並預計第四季度的空缺職位將大幅增加，並在明年繼續保持積極的勢頭。預計我們的空中簽約量將達到最高水平，我們歷史上最大的管道，接近我們歷史上最大的在建管道，並已確定 2024 年空缺和轉換的積極勢頭，我們對加速淨單位增長的能力充滿信心明年增長至5.5% 至6%，並恢復到先前6% 至7% 的成長率。

In terms of fee contribution, our algorithm is alive and well, and we expect fee growth above RevPAR plus net unit growth going forward. Our under-construction portfolio mix of roughly 60% focused service hotels and 40% full service remains in line with our existing supply. This balanced and diversified pipeline, along with rising RevPAR and royalty rates, gives us confidence in our ability to continue delivering high-quality growth with increasing fees per room.

就費用貢獻而言，我們的演算法仍然有效，我們預期費用成長將高於 RevPAR 加上淨單位成長。我們正在建造的投資組合由大約 60% 的專注服務酒店和 40% 的全方位服務酒店組成，仍與我們現有的供應量保持一致。這種平衡和多元化的管道，以及不斷上升的每間客房收入和特許權使用費，使我們對透過增加每間客房的費用繼續實現高品質成長的能力充滿信心。

We also continue strengthening our value proposition for Hilton Honors members. In the quarter, Honors membership grew 19% year-over-year to more than 173 million members and remains the fastest-growing hotel loyalty program. Members accounted for 64% of occupancy, up more than 200 basis points year-over-year. Demonstrating our commitment to meeting the evolving preferences of our guests, we recently announced several new innovations.

我們也持續強化希爾頓榮譽客會會員的價值主張。本季度，榮譽會員人數年增 19%，會員數量超過 1.73 億，仍是成長最快的飯店忠誠度計畫。會員入住率達64%，年增超過200個基點。為了體現我們致力於滿足客人不斷變化的偏好的承諾，我們最近宣布了幾項新的創新。

As part of our long-term commitment to digitally transform the business travel experience for millions of small- and medium-sized enterprises, we will launch Hilton for Business early next year. The multifaceted program will feature a new booking website along with targeted benefits designed especially for SMEs, which account for approximately 85% of our business mix. Additionally, we will expand our events booking capabilities, enabling customers to book meetings and event spaces with or without guestroom blocks directly on our website. For travelers who prioritize sustainability, we recently announced an expanded agreement with Tesla to install up to 20,000 universal wall connectors at 2,000 hotels, making our planned EV charging network the largest in the industry.

作為我們為數百萬中小企業提供數位商務旅行體驗的長期承諾的一部分，我們將於明年初推出希爾頓商務酒店。這項多層面的計畫將包括一個新的預訂網站以及專為中小企業設計的針對性福利，中小企業約占我們業務組合的 85%。此外，我們將擴展我們的活動預訂功能，使客戶能夠直接在我們的網站上預訂有或沒有客房區的會議和活動空間。對於優先考慮永續發展的旅行者，我們最近宣布與 Tesla 達成一項擴大協議，在 2,000 家酒店安裝多達 20,000 個通用牆壁連接器，使我們規劃的電動車充電網路成為業內最大的。

We also continue to be recognized for our culture. During the quarter, we were named the Top Hospitality Employer in Europe and in Asia by Great Place to Work. And just yesterday, we were named the #1 Best Workplace for Women in the United States for the fifth year in a row. The strong results we're reporting today would not be possible without our more than 460,000 team members who spread the light and warmth of hospitality each and every day.

我們的文化也繼續得到認可。本季度，我們被 Great Place to Work 評為歐洲和亞洲最佳旅館業雇主。就在昨天，我們連續第五年被評為全美最佳女性工作場所第一名。如果沒有我們超過 46 萬名團隊成員每天傳播的熱情好客的光芒和溫暖，我們今天報告的強勁業績就不可能實現。

Overall, we're very pleased with the performance in the quarter, and we remain very optimistic about the tremendous opportunities that lie ahead. With continued strong demand, coupled with our record pipeline and accelerating net unit growth forecast, we're confident in our ability to further differentiate ourselves from the industry in the years ahead.

總體而言，我們對本季的表現非常滿意，並且對未來的巨大機會仍然非常樂觀。憑藉持續強勁的需求，加上我們創紀錄的管道和加速的淨單位成長預測，我們對未來幾年進一步從行業中脫穎而出的能力充滿信心。

Now I'll turn the call over to Kevin for a few more details on the results for the quarter and our expectations for the full year.

現在我將把電話轉給凱文，以了解有關本季業績和我們對全年預期的更多詳細資訊。

Thanks, Chris, and good morning, everyone. During the quarter, system-wide RevPAR grew 6.8% versus the prior year on a comparable and currency-neutral basis. Growth was driven by strong international performance as well as continued strength in leisure and steady recovery in business transient and group travel.

謝謝克里斯，大家早安。本季度，在可比較和貨幣中性的基礎上，全系統的 RevPAR 與前一年相比成長了 6.8%。強勁的國際業績、休閒業務的持續強勁以及商務旅行和團體旅行的穩步復甦推動了成長。

Adjusted EBITDA was $834 million in the third quarter, up 14% year-over-year and exceeding the high end of our guidance range. Outperformance was driven by better-than-expected fee growth largely due to better-than-expected RevPAR performance and license fee growth. Management and franchise fees grew 12% year-over-year. For the quarter, diluted earnings per share adjusted for special items was $1.67, increasing 27% year-over-year and exceeding the high end of our guidance range.

第三季調整後 EBITDA 為 8.34 億美元，年成長 14%，超出了我們指引範圍的上限。業績優於預期是由於費用成長優於預期，這主要是由於 RevPAR 表現和授權費成長優於預期。管理費和特許經營費年增 12%。本季度，特殊項目調整後的稀釋每股收益為 1.67 美元，年成長 27%，超出了我們指導範圍的上限。

Turning to regional performance. Third quarter comparable U.S. RevPAR grew 3% year-over-year, with performance led by continued recovery in both business transient and group. Leisure demand in the U.S. remained strong even with tougher year-over-year comps. Relative to 2019 peak levels, U.S. RevPAR increased 10% in the third quarter, improving 200 basis points versus the second quarter.

轉向區域表現。第三季美國可比 RevPAR 年成長 3%，業績因瞬態業務和集團業務的持續復甦而領先。即使年比比較更嚴峻，美國的休閒需求仍然強勁。相對於 2019 年的峰值水平，美國第三季的 RevPAR 成長了 10%，比第二季提高了 200 個基點。

In the Americas outside the U.S., third quarter RevPAR increased 11% year-over-year. Performance was driven by strong group demand, particularly in urban locations.

在美國以外的美洲地區，第三季 RevPAR 年增 11%。業績是由強勁的團體需求推動的，尤其是在城市地區。

In Europe, RevPAR grew 11% year-over-year. Performance benefited from continued strength in leisure demand and recovery in business travel.

在歐洲，RevPAR 年成長 11%。業績得益於休閒需求的持續強勁和商務旅行的復甦。

In the Middle East and Africa region, RevPAR increased 19% year-over-year, led by both rate growth and strong demand from the summer travel season.

在中東和非洲地區，由於房價成長和夏季旅遊旺季的強勁需求，每間可用客房收入年增 19%。

In the Asia Pacific region, third quarter RevPAR was up 39% year-over-year, led by the continued demand recovery in China. RevPAR in China was up 38% year-over-year in the quarter and 12% higher than 2019. The rest of the Asia Pacific region also saw significant growth, with RevPAR, excluding China, up 40% year-over-year.

在亞太地區，在中國需求持續復甦的帶動下，第三季每間可用房收入年增 39%。本季中國的每間可用客房營收年增 38%，比 2019 年成長 12%。亞太地區其他地區也顯著成長，除中國外，每間可用客房營收年增 40%。

Moving to our guidance. For the fourth quarter, we expect system-wide RevPAR growth to be between 4.5% and 5.5% year-over-year and 12% to 13% versus 2019 with continued sequential improvement versus the third quarter. We expect adjusted EBITDA of between $739 million and $759 million and diluted EPS adjusted for special items to be between $1.51 and $1.56.

轉向我們的指導。對於第四季度，我們預計全系統的 RevPAR 年成長將在 4.5% 至 5.5% 之間，與 2019 年相比將成長 12% 至 13%，與第三季相比將持續改善。我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 為 7.39 億美元至 7.59 億美元，特殊項目調整後的稀釋每股收益為 1.51 美元至 1.56 美元。

For the full year 2023, we expect RevPAR growth to be between 12% and 12.5%. We forecast adjusted EBITDA of between $3.025 billion and $3.045 billion. We forecast diluted EPS adjusted for special items of between $6.04 and $6.09. Please note that our guidance ranges do not incorporate future share repurchases.

對於 2023 年全年，我們預計 RevPAR 成長將在 12% 至 12.5% 之間。我們預計調整後 EBITDA 為 30.25 億美元至 30.45 億美元。我們預計特殊項目調整後的攤薄每股收益將在 6.04 美元至 6.09 美元之間。請注意，我們的指導範圍不包括未來的股票回購。

Moving on to capital return. We paid a cash dividend of $0.15 per share during the third quarter for a total of $39 million. Our Board also authorized a quarterly dividend of $0.15 per share in the fourth quarter. Year-to-date, we have returned more than $1.9 billion to shareholders in the form of buybacks and dividends, and we expect to return between $2.4 billion and $2.6 billion for the full year.

轉向資本回報。第三季我們支付了每股 0.15 美元的現金股息，總計 3,900 萬美元。我們的董事會也授權在第四季派發每股 0.15 美元的季度股息。今年迄今為止，我們已以回購和股息的形式向股東返還超過 19 億美元，預計全年回報在 24 億至 26 億美元之間。

Further details on our third quarter results can be found in the earnings release we issued earlier this morning. This completes our prepared remarks. We would now like to open the line for any questions you may have. We would like to speak with as many of you as possible, so we ask that you limit yourself to one question.

有關我們第三季業績的更多詳細信息，請參閱我們今天早上發布的收益報告。我們準備好的演講到此結束。我們現在願意為您解答任何問題。我們希望與盡可能多的人交談，因此我們要求您只回答一個問題。

MJ, can we have our first question please?

MJ，我們可以問第一個問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today comes from Shaun Kelley with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Shaun Kelley。

So Chris, I think the big incremental here is obviously your 2024 improving net unit growth outlook. I think this is meaningfully better than what people were expecting out there. So you gave some color in terms of what you're seeing on, obviously, signings, starts and details. But just help us kind of dig in here a little bit. What would kind of give you the confidence to kind of bump that up from where we were a quarter ago? Is there something in particular you'd like to call out for us?

所以克里斯，我認為這裡最大的增量顯然是你對 2024 年淨單位成長前景的改善。我認為這比人們的預期要好得多。所以你在你所看到的方面給出了一些色彩，顯然是簽約、首發和細節。但請幫我們稍微深入一下。什麼能讓您有信心將這一數字從一個季度前提高到更高水平？有什麼特別想向我們提出的嗎？

And specifically, just remind us of exactly the activity levels you're seeing here U.S. as we know we're fighting that sort of tougher construction and financing environment. For owners broadly, it seems like you're obviously able to buck that trend.

具體來說，請提醒我們您在美國看到的具體活動水平，因為我們知道我們正在應對那種更嚴峻的建築和融資環境。對於廣大業主來說，似乎你顯然能夠扭轉這個趨勢。

Yes. Yes, last quarter, we gave a broad range of 5% to 6%, which we felt good about, but a broader range for obvious reasons. We were middle of the year, and there was a lot of year left and thus a lot of time to see what was going to happen in signings and starts and success with conversions and the like. And so as you saw from what we just reported on in Kevin's and my comments, we continue to have great success in the third quarter, and that's continued in the fourth quarter. As I said in my prepared comments, we're going to have a record year by double-digit percentage on signings.

是的。是的，上個季度，我們給出了 5% 到 6% 的廣泛範圍，我們對此感覺良好，但更廣泛的範圍有明顯的原因。我們正處於今年年中，還剩下很多年，因此有很多時間來看看簽約、首發以及轉換等方面的成功會發生什麼。正如您從我們剛剛在凱文和我的評論中看到的那樣，我們在第三季度繼續取得巨大成功，並且在第四季度繼續取得巨大成功。正如我在準備好的評論中所說，我們的簽約率將創下兩位數百分比的創紀錄年份。

While starts aren't quite back to where they were, they're getting close to being back to where they were. We obviously have an elevated level of conversions from what we've seen in recent years at 30%, which we think is going to continue with across a broad range of brands and, of course, including the addition of Spark. And so the confidence we have is -- at this point in the year, we have a very granular model. This is -- we always have a model, but in the middle of the year, by definition, we just don't have as much information.

雖然開局還沒有完全回到原來的水平，但他們已經接近回到原來的水平了。顯然，與近年來我們看到的 30% 的轉換率相比，我們的轉換率有所提高，我們認為這種情況將在廣泛的品牌中持續下去，當然，包括 Spark 的加入。因此，我們有信心——在今年的這個時候，我們有一個非常精細的模型。這是——我們總是有一個模型，但根據定義，在年中，我們只是沒有那麼多資訊。

Now, as I said in my comments quite briefly, we have identified -- a lot of what we're going to deliver next year is identified. Obviously, we have a bunch of conversions that we'll do in the year for the year, but we have a lot -- we've had a lot of success there. And so the confidence is ground up region by region, hotel by hotel with some, we think, reasonably conservative assumptions for what we'll be able to execute on given the momentum we have in conversions, this is where we end up. It's 5.5% to 6%.

現在，正如我在評論中簡短地說的那樣，我們已經確定了——我們明年將提供的許多內容都已確定。顯然，我們今年將進行大量轉換，但我們有很多——我們在那裡取得了巨大的成功。因此，我們認為，考慮到我們在轉換方面的勢頭，我們對我們能夠執行的任務做出了一些相當保守的假設，這就是我們最終的結果。是5.5%到6%。

And so we wouldn't say it if we didn't believe it, and it is a plan that is based on the underlying momentum and things that are largely in production. As I looked at it, I know we get questions all the time about when are you going to get back to 6% to 7%, and we obviously -- and I said in my prepared comments, I have every confidence we will. I think it's possible next year if a few things go our way. I think we could be at the bottom end of that range. But we're still in October 2023. So we're going to take it one step at a time. We refined it. We feel really good about 5.5% to 6%. Next time we talk, we'll ever find it even more and, as I said, if a few things go our way. Honestly, when I look at all of the data in a granular way, I think there's probably more upside potential than downside risk at this point.

因此，如果我們不相信的話，我們就不會這麼說，這是一個基於潛在動力和大部分已投入生產的東西的計劃。當我看到它時，我知道我們一直有人問什麼時候才能恢復到 6% 到 7%，顯然，我在準備好的評論中說過，我完全有信心我們會做到這一點。我認為如果事情順利的話明年就有可能實現。我認為我們可能處於該範圍的底部。但現在還到 2023 年 10 月。所以我們將一步一腳印。我們對其進行了改進。我們對 5.5% 到 6% 感覺非常好。下次我們談話時，我們會發現更多，正如我所說，如果有些事情進展順利的話。老實說，當我仔細查看所有數據時，我認為目前的上行潛力可能大於下行風險。

And then Shaun, I think -- just to circle back to the U.S., I think, look, the story, I mean, you've heard the story about things are a little bit more stressed with financing costs. But I think the story around if you are financed and you're entitled and you're ready to go and you want to build a hotel, you're better off getting underway than leaving that asset as a nonperforming asset. And I think that you think about that being fueled also by the fundamental environment where people are optimistic about growth, capacity additions are going to be constrained. We continue to take share. And so I think it's a good story in the U.S. as well.

然後肖恩，我想——回到美國，我想，看，這個故事，我的意思是，你聽說過有關融資成本壓力更大的故事。但我認為，如果你有資金、有資格、準備好建造一家酒店，那麼你最好立即動工，而不是將該資產作為不良資產。我認為，人們對成長持樂觀態度的基本環境也推動了產能的增加，這將受到限制。我們繼續分享。所以我認為這在美國也是一個好故事。

The next question comes from Joe Greff with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的喬·格雷夫。

Chris, just trying to understand, longer term, the accelerating net rooms growth. How -- on average, how long is the typical full-service or the typical limited-service hotels staying in the pipeline? Is that time line narrowing? I mean understanding next year's accelerating rooms growth is more a function of past periods gross room signings as well as starts that you're seeing pickup here. But are you seeing the time line room staying in the pipeline narrow at all on a like-for-like basis?

克里斯，只是想了解從長遠來看，淨房間增長的加速。典型的全方位服務或典型的有限服務飯店的平均入住時間是多久？時間線會變窄嗎？我的意思是，明年客房增長的加速更多地取決於過去時期的總客房簽約量以及您在這裡看到的增長。但您是否認為在同類基礎上停留在管道中的時間線空間非常狹窄？

I would say every region is a little different. I don't have a hard stat in my head, but I'll give you sort of a directional answer. I mean with limited service in the pipeline generally in the pipeline a couple of years, full service, I would say, on the order of 3 or 4 years, but it could vary greatly depending on what region of the world you're in. But I think directionally, those are -- if I average it all together, those are pretty good.

我想說每個地區都有點不同。我腦子裡沒有硬性統計數據，但我會給你一個方向性的答案。我的意思是，有限的服務通常需要幾年的時間，而全面的服務，我想說，大約需要 3 或 4 年，但根據您所在的世界地區，它可能會有很大差異。但我認為，從方向上來說，如果我把它們平均起來，這些都相當不錯。

And I would say what happened during COVID is that, that extended out a great deal because everything stopped and slowed down, and then you have the supply chain issues that even after things got moving again, we reopened. You have the supply chain things that slowed things down. That has now come back down to being closer to where we were but still a little bit more extended than where we were. And I think that has a lot to do with just in a lot of parts of the world, what Kevin just said. It's just a little harder to get things done.

我想說的是，在新冠疫情期間發生的情況是，時間延長了很多，因為一切都停止了，放緩了，然後出現了供應鏈問題，即使事情再次開始發展，我們也重新開放。供應鏈上的事情拖慢了速度。現在已經回到更接近我們原來的位置，但仍然比我們原來的位置更擴展一些。我認為這與凱文剛才所說的世界很多地方有很大關係。只是把事情做好有點困難。

And so it's taking a little bit longer. People are getting financed, but if they had 5 projects they wanted to start, they're maybe getting 2 or 3 of those financed, and it's taking a little bit longer. So I think there is a little bit longer gestation period. Now when 30% of the deliveries are conversions, obviously, that's a super short gestation period from pipeline into NUG. And so that's helping -- if you take it on average, I would say, with an increase of conversions relative to being in the low 20s right before we were in COVID, I would say the gestation period, the time and pipeline is about the same.

所以需要更長的時間。人們正在獲得融資，但如果他們有 5 個想要啟動的項目，他們可能會獲得其中 2 或 3 個項目的融資，需要更長的時間。所以我認為妊娠期要長一些。現在，30% 的交付量都是轉化，顯然，從管道到 NUG 的醞釀期非常短。所以這是有幫助的——如果你平均來看，我想說，相對於我們進入新冠疫情之前的 20 多歲，轉化率有所增加，我想說的是，醞釀期、時間和渠道大約是相同的。

Again, I'm doing sort of quick and dirty math in my head. But if you just look at pure new construction, it's a little bit -- it's still a touch longer than it had been. And again, we sort of like -- not to repeat myself, we factored all of that in, meaning we know we have a team that is on the ground everywhere in the world working with all of our owners on every project that's under construction. And what we think we're going to deliver next year other than the in the year for the year, which are largely obviously conversions at this point, those are projects. They're on the ground, they're being -- they're under construction, and we have rational time lines for when we think that those will deliver.

我又在腦子裡做了一些快速而骯髒的數學計算。但如果你只看全新的建築，你會發現它的長度還是比以前長了一點。再說一次，我們有點喜歡 - 不重複我自己，我們考慮了所有這些因素，這意味著我們知道我們有一個團隊分佈在世界各地，與我們所有的業主在每個正在建造的項目上合作。我們認為明年我們將交付的內容除了今年的內容之外，目前顯然主要是轉換，這些都是項目。它們已經落地，正在建設中，我們有合理的時間表來確定這些項目何時能夠交付。

The next question comes from Carlo Santarelli with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的卡洛桑塔雷利 (Carlo Santarelli)。

Chris, you said earlier in the call that the kind of fee growth -- you expect fee growth to outpace kind of the NUG plus RevPAR dynamic. I was wondering if you could kind of break down a little bit how to think about the NUG plus RevPAR dynamic for the operating business relative to kind of the fees and whatnot and how we should think about that fee component of that relationship.

克里斯，您早些時候在電話會議中說過，您預計費用增長將超過 NUG 加 RevPAR 動態。我想知道您是否可以稍微分解一下如何考慮運營業務的 NUG 加 RevPAR 動態相對於費用等的種類，以及我們應該如何考慮這種關係中的費用組成部分。

Yes. We do get a bunch of questions periodically on like fees per room, and they're going up and going down. I mean that's the reason we put it in there. And we'll give you a lot more granularity on that on March 19 of next year when we do a full day or a good part of a day talking about it.

是的。我們確實定期收到一堆關於每間客房的類似費用的問題，而且這些費用有漲有跌。我的意思是這就是我們把它放在那裡的原因。我們將在明年 3 月 19 日為您提供更詳細的信息，屆時我們將花一整天或一天的大部分時間來討論這個問題。

But we just -- we put it in there because we wanted to -- we get the question enough. I wanted to publicly say how we think about it. I mean we described years ago when we had our last Analyst Day sort of an algorithm that had same-store growth, new unit growth with leverage associated with fee -- license fee increases and that, that would ultimately give us same-store fee growth or fee growth that would be greater than the combination of those 2. And that is the condition that exists today. That's what we see in the business today, that as we model the business going forward, we believe that will continue as we look at the models. Why? Because of the things that are happy. We're getting same store. We're adding units, and we continue to see our license fee rates go up as we renew contracts. We have 5% of the system that's sort of on average rolling out every year and getting mark-to-market.

但我們只是——我們把它放在那裡是因為我們想——我們已經得到了足夠的問題。我想公開表達我們的想法。我的意思是，我們在幾年前描述過，當我們進行最後一次分析師日時，我們描述了一種演算法，該演算法具有同店增長、新單位增長以及與費用相關的槓桿——許可費增加，這最終會為我們帶來同店費用成長或費用成長將大於這兩者的總和。這就是今天存在的情況。這就是我們今天在業務中看到的情況，當我們對未來的業務進行建模時，我們相信，當我們研究模型時，這種情況將繼續下去。為什麼？因為有快樂的事。我們去的是同一家店。我們正在增加單位，並且隨著我們續簽合同，我們的許可費率繼續上漲。我們有 5% 的系統平均每年都會推出並投入市場。

And we're moving our -- on a bunch of brands, we're moving our license fees up. So when you factor for all of that, that's how you get it on our -- in our core RevPAR base. And then our non-RevPAR base fees as I think we've said a bunch of times, we're having great success. There's a bunch of different pieces of that. The 2 biggest pieces of it are our credit card, co-brand business and our HGVC, HCV business, both of which we think, over time, will grow at higher than algorithm on average.

我們正在提高一些品牌的授權費。因此，當您考慮所有這些因素時，這就是您在我們的核心 RevPAR 基礎上得到的方式。然後，我們的非 RevPAR 基本費用，我想我們已經說過很多次了，我們取得了巨大的成功。其中有很多不同的部分。其中最大的兩個部分是我們的信用卡、聯名品牌業務以及我們的 HGVC、HCV 業務，我們認為隨著時間的推移，這兩個業務的成長速度將高於演算法的平均成長速度。

And so when you put all that together, those are our fees. And that's why our fees, we believe, will be growing greater than sort of RevPAR plus NUG. And that obviously then translates if you just do simple math when you look at fees per room and you add RevPAR growth into that equation and you model it out over time, it's sort of hard if you make those assumptions not to see fees per room go up.

所以當你把所有這些加在一起時，這些就是我們的費用。我們相信，這就是為什麼我們的費用成長將高於 RevPAR 加 NUG 的成長。顯然，如果你只做簡單的數學計算，看看每間客房的費用，然後將每間客房的可售房收入增長添加到該等式中，並隨著時間的推移對它進行建模，那麼如果你做出這些假設而不看到每間客房的費用，那就很難了向上。

So people ask us that. We think -- I think the math is pretty easy. That's why we put it in there, is just to sort of marker out there. Again, we'll give -- we're going to have -- the reason we want to have an Analyst Day is to do a bunch of different things, but that will be one of them to give everybody a little bit more granularity. But -- and an abundance of sort of transparency, we obviously always have our business model, and we think the math -- the arithmetic is pretty straightforward and obviously compelling.

所以人們問我們這個問題。我們認為──我認為數學非常簡單。這就是為什麼我們把它放在那裡，只是為了在那裡做一個標記。再次，我們將給出——我們將會有——我們想要舉辦分析師日的原因是做一系列不同的事情，但這將是其中之一，讓每個人都更詳細一點。但是——以及大量的透明度，我們顯然總是有自己的商業模式，而且我們認為數學——算術非常簡單，而且顯然引人注目。

The next question comes from Stephen Grambling with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的史蒂芬‧格蘭布林。

Wanted to touch on key money a little bit, which went up a bit guidance for the fourth quarter, even as conversions are also going up. Can you just remind us of your general approach to key money and how the industry dynamics around key money have been evolving as we think about not only in 4Q but beyond?

想稍微談談關鍵資金，儘管轉換率也在上升，但第四季的指引有所上升。您能否提醒我們您對關鍵資金的一般方法，以及圍繞關鍵資金的行業動態如何演變，我們不僅考慮第四季度，而且考慮以後的情況？

Yes. So Stephen, first of all, I'd say our overall approach to key money has been very consistent the entire time we've been here. We still have less than 10% of our deals that have any key money associated with them. I think you have to recognize that in a more competitive environment for conversions, those tend to be -- get a little bit more competitive and a little bit more expensive. But this year, what I would say is it's just we happen to have one -- we upped our guidance for overall CapEx. I should point out that, that's not key money guidance. That's overall CapEx guidance.

是的。史蒂芬，首先，我想說，我們在這兒的整個時間裡，對待禮金的整體方法一直非常一致。我們的交易中仍然只有不到 10% 的交易有與之相關的禮金。我認為你必須認識到，在競爭更加激烈的轉換環境中，這些往往會變得更有競爭力，而且成本更高一些。但今年，我想說的是，我們碰巧有一個——我們提高了對整體資本支出的指導。我應該指出，這不是關鍵的資金指引。這是整體資本支出指導。

We upped our guidance. We've been fortunate to win a few relatively large deals at the higher end of the business where they get a little bit more expensive in the fourth quarter. And we had one big deal as we've told you about that carried over. It really was a last year deal but didn't end up closing until this year, which caused last year to be lighter, this year to be a little bit heavier.

我們提高了指引。我們很幸運地在高端業務領域贏得了一些相對較大的交易，這些交易在第四季度的價格略高一些。我們有一件大事，正如我們已經告訴過你的。確實是去年的交易，但直到今年才成交，導致去年輕一些，今年重一些。

If you look at a 3-year average, we're sort of south of $250 million of total CapEx, the way we guide it. And I think that's the right way to think about it going forward. We think next year will normalize and be back into that sort of low 2s -- low to mid-2s range on a total CapEx basis.

如果你看一下 3 年平均值，我們的總資本支出（以我們的指導方式）略低於 2.5 億美元。我認為這是思考未來的正確方式。我們認為明年將會正常化，並回到那種低 2 的水平 - 總資本支出基礎上低到中 2 的範圍。

The next question is from David Katz with Jefferies.

下一個問題是來自 Jefferies 的 David Katz。

You covered a lot of details and, in particular, the NUG acceleration into next year. If you could help us unpack a little bit. Is there some expectation for improvement in the landscape? And I know Kevin mentioned taking share of the opportunities that are out there. How? Is that a function of key money? I'd love to just get a sense for how you're pitching it and why you'll win.

您介紹了很多細節，特別是明年的 NUG 加速。如果你能幫我們解壓縮。景觀是否有改善的希望？我知道凱文提到要分享現有的機會。如何？這是禮金的功能嗎？我很想了解你是如何推銷的以及為什麼你會贏。

I would say, built in. I said this is a very granular -- for next year, it's a very granular analysis. So it's all in production or conversion. So I would say we do think -- the environment is not great but not bad. I mean things are getting financed. Actually, in a really tough environment, as Kevin implied, we end up taking share.

我想說的是，內建的。我說過這是一個非常精細的分析——對於明年來說，這是一個非常精細的分析。所以這一切都在生產或轉換中。所以我想說，我們確實認為──環境不是很好，但也不錯。我的意思是事情正在獲得融資。事實上，正如凱文所暗示的那樣，在一個非常艱難的環境中，我們最終佔據了份額。

So we're getting more -- much more than our fair share of the development opportunities. Why? I mean I'm obviously partial, but I think if you talk to a broad base of owners, they would say because our brands perform better. Our market share is the highest in the industry. And if they're only going to do a few deals, they want to do them and get the highest returns, and so they go to the brands that are going to deliver their best performance.

因此，我們獲得的發展機會比我們應得的要多得多。為什麼？我的意思是我顯然有偏袒，但我認為如果你與廣大業主交談，他們會說因為我們的品牌表現更好。我們的市場佔有率是業界最高的。如果他們只打算做幾筆交易，他們希望在做這些交易時獲得最高的回報，因此他們會選擇能夠提供最佳業績的品牌。

So I mean it's clearly -- it's still a challenging financing environment, although open and slow. We haven't made any big assumption to get to these NUG numbers for next year that something changes wildly. We think it's sort of going to -- my guess is it will matriculate and get a little bit better because there's a chance, at some point next year, rates will come down and things. So we haven't really made that assumption, as I said, because we -- what's going to happen next year is largely in production.

所以我的意思是，儘管開放且緩慢，但融資環境仍然充滿挑戰。我們還沒有做出任何大的假設來獲得明年的 NUG 數字，即某些事情會發生巨大變化。我們認為它會——我的猜測是它會被錄取並且會變得更好一點，因為有機會，在明年的某個時候，利率會下降等等。所以，正如我所說，我們並沒有真正做出這樣的假設，因為明年將發生的事情主要是在生產中。

But we do think as has been happening this year and for a number of years that we will continue to take share. And we do believe and built into this is that on conversions, again, I said I think we'll be 30% year. I think we'll be about 30% next year too that we are going to get more than our fair share of conversions. And we have enough momentum that I have the confidence to feel good about giving you the range and outcomes on that basis.

但我們確實認為，就像今年和多年來發生的那樣，我們將繼續分享份額。我們確實相信，並且內建的是在轉換方面，我再次說過，我認為我們每年將達到 30%。我認為明年我們的轉換率也會達到 30% 左右，我們將獲得超過我們應有的轉換份額。我們有足夠的動力，我有信心在此基礎上為您提供範圍和結果。

And my guess is, as I said, if a few things go our way, we might be able to outperform that we've really definitely hit an inflection point of view. If you really think about the inflection point, it was sort of the second half of last year, you started to see the momentum shift and things bottom out in terms of signings and starts. And I kept saying this to people. I know everybody has been nervous about NUG and for good reason. But you could -- we can just see like the rat moving through the snake, so to speak, starting the second half of last year, and now you're starting to see it produce. Third quarter is up a little. You'll see the fourth quarter, we're going to have a very large delivery quarter. And our belief, just given, again, what we know is in production is you've hit a real point of inflection, and you're on the way back up.

我的猜測是，正如我所說，如果一些事情朝著我們的方向發展，我們可能會表現得更好，因為我們確實已經達到了轉折點。如果你真的考慮一下拐點，那就是去年下半年，你開始看到勢頭的轉變，在簽約和首發方面情況已經觸底。我一直對人們這麼說。我知道每個人都對 NUG 感到緊張，這是有充分理由的。但你可以——我們可以看到，就像老鼠穿過蛇一樣，可以這麼說，從去年下半年開始，現在你開始看到它產生了。第三季略有上漲。你會看到第四季度，我們將有一個非常大的交付季度。我們的信念是，我們所知道的是，我們已經達到了真正的轉折點，並且正在恢復。

So that's a lot to unpack. I think the core answer is there is no broad assumption of like the world improving from the standpoint of development and financing in any material way from where we are here.

所以有很多東西需要解壓縮。我認為核心答案是，從我們這裡的發展和融資的角度來看，世界並沒有以任何實質方式改善。

The next question comes from Smedes Rose with Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Smedes Rose。

I just wanted to go back to your comments around group business, which looks like it's pacing very well up for next year. And you mentioned as you have before that 85% is coming from smaller business enterprises. And I was just wondering if you could talk a little bit about the remaining 15%, which I guess is comprised of larger businesses, and maybe just what you're hearing in terms of their sort of appetite to book into next year at this point.

我只是想回到您對集團業務的評論，看起來明年的進展非常順利。正如您之前提到的，85% 來自小型企業。我只是想知道您是否可以談談剩下的 15%，我猜這些是由較大的企業組成的，也許正是您所聽到的他們對明年預訂的興趣。

Yes. Thanks, Smedes for the question. I think you may be conflating 2 different comments. Group is way up 18%, group business on the books for next year. The 85% I was talking about SMEs was business transient. It does turn out by coincidence that 85% of our group business is small and medium groups, but that's a total coincidence. And 15% of it is sort of large, I'd say, 300-room plus groups.

是的。謝謝斯梅德斯的提問。我認為您可能會混淆兩種不同的評論。集團明年的帳面業務成長了 18%。我所說的 85% 的中小企業都是短暫的。確實很巧合，我們集團業務85%是中小型集團，但這完全是巧合。其中 15% 是大型的，我想說，有 300 個房間以上的團體。

As we look at next -- as you look at and sort of implied, I think, in some of the comments I've already made or in the prepared comments, what's going to happen next year is that it will start -- I still think group business has always been dominated by just like business travel, business transient by small and medium groups. But you will see the return of the mega groups that started in the second half of this year. It takes a long time to plan these things and think about it last year. Nobody wanted to commit them much because they didn't know we were still in the open close, open close. They got to spend millions of dollars planning these events, they can't get out of them, there's penalties and everything else.

當我們接下來看時——正如你所看到的和暗示的，我認為，在我已經發表的一些評論或準備好的評論中，明年將會發生的事情是它將開始——我仍然認為團體業務一直以來都是以中小團體為主，就像商務旅行一樣，商務瞬息萬變。但你會看到今年下半年開始的大型集團的回歸。去年就計劃這些事情、思考了很久。沒有人願意投入太多，因為他們不知道我們仍然處於開放關閉、開放關閉的狀態。他們必須花費數百萬美元來策劃這些活動，他們無法逃脫，還有處罰和其他一切。

So people waited a long time, and then it takes -- then they got to get a space, and it's getting much, much harder to get space for these city-wides and the big groups. So that just takes time. I think it will shift next year, not radically, but I think you will see a decent shift to an orientation to the large groups because they have a huge amount of pent-up demand that needs to be satiated. And so that's going to start happening next. My guess is you'll see a surge in it. It will shift the stats around.

所以人們等了很長時間，然後他們必須得到一個空間，而為這些全市範圍的人和大團體獲得空間變得越來越困難。所以這只是需要時間。我認為明年情況會發生轉變，雖然不會發生根本性的轉變，但我認為你會看到向大型集團的方向發生了體面的轉變，因為他們有大量被壓抑的需求需要滿足。接下來就會發生這種情況。我的猜測是你會看到它的激增。它將改變統計數據。

Over time, I think it's probably like -- I don't have a hard data point. But sort of directionally having done this a long time, I think it's like 80-20, something like that more normally. And so I think next year, you're going to get more of that instead of 85-15. You're going to see the bigger groups take a leap up in the short to intermediate term to get to a more normal environment.

隨著時間的推移，我認為這可能是——我沒有硬數據點。但在某種程度上，我已經這樣做了很長時間了，我認為這就像 80-20，更正常的情況是這樣。所以我認為明年，你會得到更多，而不是 85-15。你會看到更大的群體在中短期內取得飛躍，以達到更正常的環境。

But we're seeing -- sort of underneath the question, I assume, is what are we seeing in strength from small, medium, big, whatever. We're seeing -- if we sat in this very room with our sales team as we do every quarter and went through it all, we're seeing strength in everything. Group is just off the hook, strong. Tons of demand, peak groups or lead times are lengthening because the obvious, right?

但我認為，我們看到的問題是，我們從小型、中型、大型等各種力量中看到了什麼。我們看到，如果我們像每個季度一樣和我們的銷售團隊坐在這個房間裡並經歷這一切，我們就會看到一切的力量。集團剛擺脫困境，實力強勁。大量的需求、高峰群體或交貨時間正在延長，這是顯而易見的，對嗎？

Now everything -- there's not been a lot of group hotels that have been built in this country for essentially 20 years. And so you have all this demand, you have fewer places to go. So groups have to start planning further in advance and booking much, much further out. And so the demand is very good. We've not seen -- notwithstanding a lot of noise in the environment about like where is the economy going and the like for next year. It's not -- we've not seen any real impact in terms of group demand at this point to the contrary. Our teams are saying they're doing everything they can to keep up with demand.

現在一切都結束了——近 20 年來，這個國家並沒有建造太多的集團酒店。所以你有這麼多的需求，你可以去的地方就更少了。因此團體必須提前開始進一步計劃並預訂更遠的地方。所以需求非常好。儘管環境中有很多關於明年經濟走向等問題的噪音，但我們還沒有看到。事實並非如此，相反，我們目前還沒有看到群體需求受到任何真正的影響。我們的團隊表示，他們正在盡一切努力滿足需求。

The next question comes from Brandt Montour with Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的布蘭特·蒙圖爾。

Maybe for Kevin, the fourth quarter RevPAR guidance looks strong, not out of the arena of your third quarter RevPAR growth. And you don't see that sort of translate into EBITDA year-over-year growth in the fourth quarter versus sort of the third quarter. Just wondering if there's timing you want to highlight between the 2 quarters or anything else and why that would be a little bit diverging.

也許對 Kevin 來說，第四季 RevPAR 指引看起來很強勁，而不是超出了第三季 RevPAR 成長的範圍。而且你不會看到第四季與第三季相比，這種情況會轉化為 EBITDA 年成長。只是想知道您是否想在兩個季度之間或其他任何事情之間強調時間安排，以及為什麼會有點分歧。

Yes, sure, happy to, Brandt. I think, yes, obviously, we raised our guidance about the amount of the third quarter. We did increase the top line for the fourth quarter a little bit, not huge, and it is flowing through, say, for there's a little bit of timing in corporate expense, a little bit of FX and then a small amount for Israel. That's really it.

是的，當然，很高興，布蘭特。我認為，是的，顯然我們提高了對第三季金額的指引。我們確實稍微增加了第四季度的收入，但幅度不大，而且它正在流動，比如說，因為公司費用有一點時間，一點外匯，然後是以色列的一小部分。確實如此。

The next question comes from Robin Farley with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的羅賓法利。

I wanted to ask returning to the topic of unit growth. The conversion percent next year, you said about 30% as well in 2024. Can you give us a sense of sort of typically in October of the prior year, how much of those conversions would be kind of already on your books versus how much would come in sort of in the year, for the year that you don't have as much visibility on? Just to kind of understand the visibility there.

我想問回到單位成長的話題。明年的轉換百分比，您說 2024 年約為 30%。您能否給我們一種通常在前一年 10 月的感覺，這些轉換中有多少已經在您的帳本上，而有多少會在是在你沒有太多知名度的那一年出現的嗎？只是為了了解那裡的可見性。

Yes. It's a great question. I wish I had a great answer. Every year is sort of wildly different. I would say less than half, it's not nothing, but a lot of the work gets done in the year. But I would say, if I had to guess at it, half, maybe a bit less would be -- 40% to 50% would be on the books one way or another or maybe not in -- it wouldn't be in the pipeline, but it would be in some form of negotiation. I would say 40% to 50% would be in some form of negotiation.

是的。這是一個很好的問題。我希望我有一個很好的答案。每年的情況都大不相同。我想說不到一半，這並不是什麼都沒有，但是很多工作在這一年完成了。但我想說，如果我必須猜測的話，一半，也許會少一點——40%到50%會以這種或那種方式記在書本上，或者可能不會記在——它不會記在書本上。管道，但將以某種形式的談判進行。我想說 40% 到 50% 會進行某種形式的談判。

The next question comes from Patrick Scholes with Truist Securities.

下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Patrick Scholes。

A question about how you're thinking about upcoming corporate rate negotiations for 2024.

關於您如何看待即將進行的 2024 年企業費率談判的問題。

Yes. We feel pretty good about it. I mean we're sort of in the -- just getting into the thick of it. It's not -- we're never near done. Keeping in mind, it's a relatively small part at this point of the business. This is like 6% of our business given that we have really pushed hard on the SME side of the business, and that's 85% of the business. So when you sort of whittle it down, it's about 6% of the business. But we think at this point, when you add it all together, the fixed and the dynamic, most of our pricing is dynamic at this point. It's probably in the upper single digits.

是的。我們對此感覺很好。我的意思是，我們正處於困境。事實並非如此——我們還遠遠沒有完成。請記住，在目前的業務中，它只是相對較小的一部分。這相當於我們業務的 6%，因為我們確實大力推動了中小企業業務，而這佔了我們業務的 85%。所以如果你把它縮小的話，它大約佔業務的 6%。但我們認為，在這一點上，當你將固定和動態的所有因素加在一起時，我們的大部分定價此時都是動態的。它可能在上面的個位數。

The next question comes from Duane Pfennigwerth with Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Duane Pfennigwerth。

Chris, I'll ask you to pull out your crystal ball for a second. Could you share some high-level thoughts on which regions have the most RevPAR growth potential into 2024? Are you thinking maybe next year is more of a domestic growth-driven year or more of the same with international leading? Does the regional leadership change into 2024?

克里斯，我請你拿出你的水晶球一會兒。您能否分享一些關於 2024 年哪些地區的 RevPAR 成長潛力最大的高層想法？您是否認為明年可能更多是國內成長驅動的一年，還是國際領先的一年？ 2024年地區領導地位是否會改變？

I think it will be -- I mean I think it will be reasonably balanced between the U.S. and rest of world, maybe a smidge lower in the U.S. than rest of world, but not too terribly different, at least based on what we're seeing now.

我認為它會——我的意思是我認為美國和世界其他地區之間會相當平衡，美國的水平可能比世界其他地區低一點，但不會有太大的不同，至少根據我們的情況來看。現在看到了。

And then for rest of world, I think we see positive growth everywhere, by the way. We don't see a region where we will not have growth. We're in the middle of budget season, so it's slightly premature to judge exactly where it will be. But if you said to me, where do we think it would be, recognizing we're early in the process, I would see -- I would say low to mid-single-digit global RevPAR growth. And we'll -- obviously, on the next call, we'll give you a refined view when we have finished the whole process.

順便說一句，對於世界其他地區，我認為我們到處都看到積極的增長。我們認為沒有一個地區不會有成長。我們正處於預算季節中期，因此現在判斷具體情況還為時過早。但如果你對我說，我們認為它會在哪裡，認識到我們還處於這一過程的早期，我會看到——我會說全球每間可用收入的增長為低至中個位數。顯然，在下一次通話中，我們將在完成整個過程後向您提供精緻的視圖。

But again, I would think that would be rest of world, a little bit higher; U.S., not too terribly different, and the one that would lead the pack again would be Asia Pacific for a bunch of reasons, most notably China, which, if you recall, just in terms of comps, China did open up and is now doing really well, but the first part of this year was not. So you will have a very strong start given everything that's happening in China in the business, which there's a lot of noise about China in their economy. But from a travel tourism point of view, in China, it's very, very strong now. We think that will carry into the beginning of the year, and then you'll have some easy comps.

但同樣，我認為世界其他地方的情況會更高一些；美國，並沒有太大的不同，而亞太地區將再次領先，原因有很多，其中最引人注目的是中國，如果你還記得的話，就比較而言，中國確實開放了，而且現在正在做確實很好，但今年上半年卻不是。因此，考慮到中國業務中發生的一切，您將有一個非常強勁的開端，其中有許多關於中國經濟的噪音。但從旅遊的角度來看，在中國，現在非常非常強大。我們認為這將持續到今年年初，然後你就會有一些簡單的比較。

So we think from a pure what will RevPAR year-over-year growth point of view, what will -- where would the regions be, I would say, China and, thus, APAC will sort of lead the charge. But they're not -- but they're going to -- I would say, given we think it will probably be in the low to mid-single digits, they're going to converge a little bit more. And now the world, because China is open, is all -- you're getting out of sort of these COVID comp issues, and you're getting almost to sort of a normalized world where you have comps, where everybody was open from COVID other than, as I say, the first part of the year in China, the first part of 2024 comparability issue.

因此，我們從純粹的 RevPAR 年成長的角度來看，我想說的是，中國以及亞太地區將在哪些地區處於領先地位。但它們不是——但它們將會——我想說，考慮到我們認為它可能會在低到中個位數，它們會更加趨同。現在，因為中國是開放的，所以世界就是這樣——你正在擺脫這些新冠病毒補償問題，你幾乎進入了一個正常化的世界，在那裡你有補償，每個人都對新冠病毒開放正如我所說，除了中國今年的上半年，2024 年上半年的可比性問題。

The next question comes from Chad Beynon with Macquarie.

下一個問題來自麥格理的查德貝農 (Chad Beynon)。

Just in terms of occupancy versus rate discussion, I guess, more focused on occupancy. Chris, can you talk about how we should think about occupancy exiting '23 as a percentage or decline versus '19? And then more importantly, is there still a day of the week that just hasn't come back? Should occupancy permanently be a couple of hundred basis points off? Just trying to think about this in the medium term.

我想，就入住率與房價的討論而言，更關注入住率。 Chris，您能否談談我們應該如何看待 23 年後的入住率或與 19 相比的下降？更重要的是，一週中還有沒有回來的一天嗎？入住率是否應該永久降低幾百個基點？只是嘗試從中期角度考慮這個問題。

Yes. I mean I said in the prepared comments that in Q3, we actually were only 200 basis points off. And in September, we were only 100. So I think we're going to exit this year getting closer and closer to prior levels of occupancy for the industry but at least for Hilton. I think as we get into next year, particularly as we're able to build the group base, which is if you really look at what's happening and you're getting midweek business back, leisure is obviously still strong, weekends are still stronger than they were, what's really happened, particularly in a lot of the big cities in the U.S. is you don't have the group base back.

是的。我的意思是，我在準備好的評論中說過，在第三季度，我們實際上只落後了 200 個基點。 9 月份，我們的入住率只有 100 家。所以我認為今年我們將越來越接近該行業之前的入住率水平，至少對希爾頓來說是這樣。我認為，當我們進入明年時，特別是當我們能夠建立團體基礎時，也就是說，如果你真正關注正在發生的事情，並且你會在周中恢復業務，休閒顯然仍然很強勁，週末仍然比他們是，真正發生的事情，特別是在美國的許多大城市，你沒有恢復集團基礎。

Well, you've seen recovery, you don't have that big group base to leverage the rest of the business off of. And as already commented, we think you're going to have a really robust group year just given where bookings are right now. That then is, I think, sort of the last leg of the stool allowing you to get back to occupancy levels comparable to 2019. So I suspect next year, we will -- as that -- as you go through the year and you get that group base back, I think the rest of the segments feel very good. I mean I know everybody wants to say, nobody is going to travel for business, but that's just that people are traveling like crazy, look around and the makeup of -- there's some industries, technology and financial services that haven't rebounded as much and have issues like overhiring and then reduction in workforce and all that. But again, the bulk of it is driven by SMEs, and they're traveling more than they were. And most of the corporates and even those corporates, the people they still do have are traveling more.

好吧，你已經看到了復甦，但你沒有那麼大的集團基礎來利用其餘業務。正如已經評論的那樣，我們認為考慮到目前的預訂情況，你們將迎來一個非常強勁的集團年。我認為，這可以說是讓你回到與 2019 年相當的入住率水平的最後一步。所以我懷疑明年，我們將 - 就這樣 - 當你度過這一年時，你會得到那組基地回來了，我覺得剩下的部分感覺都很好。我的意思是，我知道每個人都想說，沒有人會去出差，但這只是人們瘋狂地旅行，環顧四周，有些行業、技術和金融服務還沒有反彈那麼多並存在諸如過度僱用和減少勞動力等問題。但同樣，其中大部分是由中小企業推動的，而且他們的出差次數比以前更多。大多數公司，甚至是那些公司，他們仍然擁有的人員，出差的次數也越來越多。

So I don't -- I do not -- I do believe we will get back to prior levels of occupancy. I think it will happen next year. I think we're getting -- we're not quite there, but we're getting close. I think next year, as you think about the split between rate and occupancy, it's a little early, but I would say it's probably a pretty balanced equation as between the 2 next year. I mean, certainly, it's early look.

所以我不——我不——我確實相信我們會回到之前的入住水平。我認為這會在明年發生。我認為我們正在——我們還沒有完全實現這一目標，但我們已經很接近了。我認為明年，當你考慮房價和入住率之間的差距時，現在有點早，但我想說這可能是明年兩者之間的一個相當平衡的等式。我的意思是，當然，這是早期的看法。

The next question comes from Michael Bellisario with Baird.

下一個問題來自邁克爾·貝利薩裡奧和貝爾德。

Just wanted to ask on luxury. Maybe just remind us where is the white space today as you see it? And then maybe more importantly, what are your customers still asking for as you think about investing key money dollars at the higher end price point?

只是想問一下奢侈品。也許只是提醒我們今天你看到的空白在哪裡？然後也許更重要的是，當您考慮以較高的最終價格點投資關鍵資金時，您的客戶仍然要求什麼？

Yes. I think that the white space for us is luxury lifestyle. We've talked about it a bunch. We are doing a bunch of work in the space right now. I think next year, we will come out -- we will have a product in the market next year. So we've done a lot of work over many years, but we sort of cranked up that engine once we got Spark launched and H3 out there. That's sort of next.

是的。我認為空白對我們來說就是奢華的生活方式。我們已經討論過很多次了。我們現在正在這個領域做很多工作。我想明年，我們將會推出──明年我們將在市場上推出一款產品。因此，我們多年來做了很多工作，但在 Spark 推出和 H3 推出後，我們就啟動了這個引擎。接下來就是這樣了。

I think our customers -- listen, I think our customers love what we have. I mean, as reflected in the fact that loyalty is amongst the largest and is certainly the fastest growing. And I think we -- I know we still represent the highest level of engagement in the sense of Honors occupancy being higher than anybody in the industry.

我認為我們的客戶—聽著，我認為我們的客戶喜歡我們所擁有的產品。我的意思是，正如忠誠度是最大的、當然也是成長最快的事實所反映的那樣。我認為我們——我知道我們仍然代表著最高水準的參與度，因為榮譽入住率比業內任何人都高。

So I think our customers are saying to us the ecosystem that you've created, both how you do loyalty, the products you have, the geography, what we talk about frequently, the network effect that we've built combined with Honors and experiences related to Honors and how they engage with Honors is really working well.

因此，我認為我們的客戶正在向我們講述您創建的生態系統，包括您如何保持忠誠度、您擁有的產品、地理位置、我們經常談論的內容、我們結合榮譽和經驗建立的網絡效應與榮譽課程以及他們與榮譽課程的互動方式確實運作良好。

So I don't think there is anything that if I'm being really blunt that our customers are screaming out, I just sat in 12 hours of focus groups with customers because we're going through a strategic planning process for over 2 nights with every segment of customers. People are loyal to us, not loyal to us, et cetera, et cetera. There was -- I mean there's a lot to unpack there. I'm not going to do it on this call, but there was nothing that our customers were saying like, gosh, you need this and you need that.

因此，如果我真的直言不諱地說，我們的客戶會大喊大叫，我不認為有什麼事情，我只是與客戶一起參加了12 個小時的焦點小組會議，因為我們正在經歷兩個多晚的策略規劃流程，每一個細分客戶群。人們對我們忠誠，對我們不忠誠，等等。我的意思是，那裡有很多東西要解開。我不會在這次電話會議上這樣做，但我們的客戶並沒有說，天哪，你需要這個，你需要那個。

What we do know is that having more on the high end creates even more of a halo effect. We believe we have a significant amount already in the luxury space, in the resort space. And given our scale and breadth and depth geographically, we think it's very pleasing to our Honors members. But on the margin, having more of it, we think, is beneficial, which is why we spend the time doing it. It's why we want to do luxury lifestyle.

我們所知道的是，擁有更多的高端產品會產生更多的光環效應。我們相信，我們在豪華度假村領域已經擁有了大量的資源。考慮到我們在地理上的規模、廣度和深度，我們認為這對我們的榮譽會員來說非常令人滿意。但在邊際上，我們認為擁有更多是有益的，這就是我們花時間這樣做的原因。這就是為什麼我們想要奢侈的生活方式。

The other reason really, not only do we want our customers to have more opportunities at the high end, but we're just giving away -- if I'm being honest, we're just giving away development opportunities. I'm looking at Kevin, who runs development, too. It's like I travel all over the world. We have owners that are super loyal to us, and many of them want to build a luxury lifestyle hotel, and we don't really have a product for them. And so literally, they're doing it with other people just because we don't have a product, and that makes me crazy, so that -- I think that it will obviously enhance our growth rate.

事實上，另一個原因是，我們不僅希望我們的客戶在高端領域擁有更多機會，而且我們只是放棄了——老實說，我們只是放棄了發展機會。我正在看凱文，他也負責開發。就像我環遊世界一樣。我們有對我們超級忠誠的業主，他們中的許多人想建造一家豪華生活方式酒店，但我們並沒有真正適合他們的產品。從字面上看，他們與其他人一起這樣做只是因為我們沒有產品，這讓我發瘋，所以——我認為這顯然會提高我們的成長率。

Now luxury lifestyle is not like H3 or Spark or Tempo or Home2. It's not -- it's a very bespoke thing. You're not going to have thousands of these. You're not even going to have hundreds of these. I mean look at people who have been at it for a long, long time. You'll be fortunate to have dozens of them.

現在的奢華生活方式不再像 H3、Spark、Tempo 或 Home2。這不是——這是一個非常客製化的東西。你不會擁有數千個這樣的東西。你甚至不會擁有數百個這樣的東西。我的意思是看看那些已經從事了很長時間的人。您將很幸運擁有數十個。

But every room counts, and having more really high-quality products in the right locations, we think, continues to build our network effect. And so I've said this many times to many investors, I sort of love where we are, which is we have an -- we have a network effect that works. We have 173 million by end of the year. Beginning of next year, we'll have 200 million Honors members that are very loyal to us. They love Honors. They love the network that we've created. They love the brand diversification, the geographic diversification. And so there is really -- doing luxury lifestyle is fabulous. Doing more luxury deals with Waldorf, Conrad and LXR, we'll keep doing that. Those will add to growth, but there is -- the ecosystem works.

但我們認為，每個房間都很重要，並且在正確的位置擁有更多真正高品質的產品，將繼續建立我們的網路效應。所以我已經對很多投資者說過很多次了，我有點喜歡我們現在的處境，我們有一個有效的網路效應。到今年年底，我們的人口數量已達到 1.73 億。明年初，我們將擁有 2 億對我們非常忠誠的榮譽會員。他們熱愛榮譽。他們喜歡我們創建的網路。他們喜歡品牌多元化、地域多元化。所以確實如此——奢侈的生活方式真是太棒了。我們將繼續與華爾道夫 (Waldorf)、康萊德 (Conrad) 和 LXR 進行更多豪華交易。這些都會促進成長，但生態系統確實有效。

I think a point in case is the success that Honors is having vis-à-vis the competition. So I look at these as all like incremental halo -- incrementally. Obviously, we can always make it better. And we can always add -- want to add products that add to our growth rate. And we think luxury lifestyle will.

我認為一個案例是榮譽賽相對於競爭對手所取得的成功。所以我將這些視為增量光環——增量。顯然，我們總是可以做得更好。我們總是可以添加——想要添加能夠提高我們成長率的產品。我們認為奢華的生活方式會。

The next question comes from Bill Crow with Raymond James.

下一個問題來自比爾·克勞和雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

Hey, Bill, you there?

嘿，比爾，你在嗎？

I'm sorry, Chris. Quick 2-parter on NUG, maybe the last question on NUG for today.

對不起，克里斯。 NUG 上的快速 2 人問答，也許是今天 NUG 上的最後一個問題。

A lot of that question, yes.

很多這樣的問題，是的。

Well, a couple of specific questions. First of all, the headlines surrounding Country Garden in China are getting any better. And I'm just wondering as it regards the pipeline as opposed to the already constructed and opening units, what do you think the risk is to that pipeline as you stand today?

嗯，有幾個具體問題。首先，有關中國碧桂園的頭條新聞正在好轉。我只是想知道，相對於已經建成和開放的管道，您認為目前管道面臨的風險是什麼？

The second part of the question is more specific on the key money, and we understand the hotel you're going to announce the conversion on tomorrow is in Boston. The reports are circulating, and that's a $40 million key money payment. I'm just trying to figure out the economics to Hilton on a payment like that.

問題的第二部分更具體地涉及禮金，我們了解您明天要宣布改建的酒店位於波士頓。這些報道正在流傳，而這相當於一筆 4000 萬美元的禮金。我只是想弄清楚希爾頓這樣的付款方式的經濟效益。

Let me -- I'll maybe tackle both. Kevin can jump in. On Country Garden, it is not a huge component of our overall pipeline yet in China. And so I don't feel like there's any risk. And certainly, the guidance we're giving you on NUG anticipates what we think conservatively will happen there.

讓我——我也許會解決這兩個問題。凱文可以插話。對碧桂園來說，這還不是我們在中國整體產品線中的重要組成部分。所以我不覺得有任何風險。當然，我們為您提供的有關 NUG 的指導預計了我們保守認為會發生的情況。

Having said, Country Garden obviously has a lot of issues, but this venture is a totally separate entity apart from their residential business. They remain very committed to it. They have very rigorous milestones that they have to meet in order to keep the exclusivity with Home2. And if they don't, we have all sorts of options that we could move forward on doing it ourselves, et cetera, et cetera.

話雖如此，碧桂園顯然有很多問題，但這個企業是一個與住宅業務完全獨立的實體。他們仍然非常致力於這一點。他們有非常嚴格的里程碑，必須滿足這些里程碑才能保持 Home2 的排他性。如果他們不這樣做，我們有各種各樣的選擇，我們可以繼續自己做，等等。

So Home2 is a very -- is very well received by the Chinese customer and very well received by the owner community recognizing Country Garden is not building any of these. This is a MOA, where we're going out with them, and these are franchisees that are doing it, and it's not their money. It's individual property owners, developers in all these little regions of China.

因此，Home2 非常受到中國客戶的歡迎，也受到業主社區的歡迎，因為他們認識到碧桂園並沒有建造任何這些項目。這是一個 MOA，我們要和他們一起出去，這些都是特許經營商，而且這不是他們的錢。是中國所有這些小地區的個體業主、開發商。

And so it's not a capital drain for them. They like it. It's profitable, and I think they'll stick with it. If they don't, ultimately, we have all sorts of mechanisms. If they don't meet the milestones, it's not like we have to wait very long. I suspect they will -- what they're saying to me and to us is they remain very committed to it.

所以這對他們來說並不是資本外流。他們喜歡它。這是有利可圖的，我認為他們會堅持下去。如果他們不這樣做，最終我們會有各種各樣的機制。如果他們沒有達到里程碑，我們不需要等待很長時間。我懷疑他們會——他們對我和我們說的是，他們仍然非常致力於這一點。

So I think we're -- I think it's fine. I think come to the key ingredient to it is super popular, super profitable on the ones that we've opened up in the development community just like they love Home2 in the U.S., the development community in China loves it. So that means that we're going to get a bunch of Home2s done. Hopefully, it's with them. If it's not, we'll do it ourselves.

所以我認為我們——我認為這很好。我認為它的關鍵要素是我們在開發社群中開發的那些超級受歡迎、超級有利可圖的產品，就像他們喜歡美國的 Home2 一樣，中國的開發社群也喜歡它。這意味著我們將完成大量 Home2。希望是跟他們在一起。如果不是，我們就自己做。

On the deal we talked about, without naming it, we're not going to name it. We would have named it if we could. So we're not going to comment on specific deals and individual key money. The way to think about it broadly is on big, complicated city center, full service or luxury, those are the deals that end up drawing -- I mean being most of the key money we spend. As Kevin said, less than 10% of our deals and our pipeline by number have any form of balance sheet support. And disproportionately, it's those kinds of deals, they're more competitive, they're more strategic in certain locations where we may have lesser density of distribution where it's really important to us.

關於我們談論的交易，如果沒有透露具體名稱，我們不會透露具體名稱。如果可以的話，我們會命名它。因此，我們不會對具體交易和個人關鍵資金發表評論。廣泛地思考它的方式是在大型、複雜的市中心、全方位服務或豪華，這些是最終吸引的交易——我的意思是我們花的大部分關鍵錢。正如 Kevin 所說，從數量上看，我們的交易和管道中只有不到 10% 擁有任何形式的資產負債表支持。不成比例的是，這類交易更具競爭力，在某些分銷密度較低的地區更具戰略意義，而這對我們來說確實很重要。

And in every single case, we are making money. I mean we are never giving key money, and I'm not going to comment on individual deals. We're never giving key money that doesn't have us make -- creating value in a contract that is significantly higher than the key money contribution. Obviously, that's -- we're a for-profit business. We just don't approach it that way. So every deal is profitable, and 90-plus percent of them are infinitely profitable because we put nothing into.

在每一個案例中，我們都在賺錢。我的意思是我們永遠不會提供禮金，而且我不會對個別交易發表評論。我們絕不會提供我們沒有賺到的禮金——在合約中創造的價值遠高於禮金貢獻。顯然，我們是一家營利事業。我們只是不那麼做。所以每筆交易都是有利可圖的，其中百分之九十以上都是無限有利可圖的，因為我們沒有投入任何資金。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the call back to Chris Nassetta for any closing remarks.

女士們先生們，我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我想將電話轉回給克里斯·納塞塔，請其發表結束語。

Thanks, everybody, for the time today. Obviously, very pleased with Q3, but more importantly, pleased with the momentum we have going into the fourth quarter. I feel pretty good about next year. We'll get back to you on exactly what we think as we get through our budget process. But given the macro view of what next year is going to be like and the pent-up demand, particularly in group but also in business travel, we feel very good about it. And obviously, we talked a lot about NUG today. We tried to give you a much more granular view of that. We feel good that we've hit a point of inflection and we're on the road to getting back to our 6% to 7% growth rate.

謝謝大家今天抽出時間。顯然，對第三季度非常滿意，但更重要的是，對我們進入第四季度的勢頭感到滿意。我對明年感覺很好。當我們完成預算流程後，我們會向您回覆我們的具體想法。但考慮到明年的宏觀情況以及被壓抑的需求，尤其是團體旅行和商務旅行，我們對此感覺非常好。顯然，我們今天談論了很多有關 NUG 的內容。我們試圖讓您更詳細地了解這一點。我們感覺很好，我們已經達到了拐點，並且正在恢復 6% 至 7% 的成長率。

So we got a busy end of the year to make all that happen and get set up for next year. We'll get back to it, and we'll look forward to getting back with you after the year is over.

因此，我們在今年年底非常忙碌，以實現所有這些目標並為明年做好準備。我們會回過頭來討論這個問題，並期待在今年結束後再次與您聯繫。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

會議現已結束。感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路。