希爾頓酒店 (HLT) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to the Hilton Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) This event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Jill Chapman, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Development. You may begin.

早上好，歡迎參加希爾頓 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）正在記錄此事件。我現在想將會議交給投資者關係和企業發展高級副總裁吉爾·查普曼 (Jill Chapman)。你可以開始了。

Thank you, MJ. Welcome to Hilton's Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. Before we begin, we would like to remind you that our discussions this morning will include forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those indicated in the forward-looking statements and forward-looking statements made today speak only to our expectations as of today. We undertake no obligation to update or revise these statements. For a discussion of some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ, please see the Risk Factors section of our most recently filed Form 10-K.

謝謝你，喬丹。歡迎參加希爾頓 2023 年第二季度財報電話會議。在開始之前，我們想提醒您，我們今天上午的討論將包括前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與前瞻性聲明中所示的結果存在重大差異，今天發表的前瞻性聲明僅代表我們截至目前的預期。我們不承擔更新或修改這些聲明的義務。有關可能導致實際結果不同的一些因素的討論，請參閱我們最近提交的表格 10-K 的風險因素部分。

In addition, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures on this call. You can find reconciliations of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures discussed in today's call in our earnings press release and on our website at ir.hilton.com. This morning, Chris Nassetta, our President and Chief Executive Officer, will provide an overview of the current operating environment and the company's outlook. Kevin Jacobs, our Chief Financial Officer and President, Global Development, will then review our second quarter results and discuss our expectations for the year. Following their remarks, we'll be happy to take your questions. With that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Chris.

此外，我們將在本次電話會議上提及某些非公認會計準則財務指標。您可以在我們的收益新聞稿和我們的網站 ir.hilton.com 上找到今天電話會議中討論的非 GAAP 與 GAAP 財務指標的調節表。今天早上，我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Chris Nassetta 將概述當前的運營環境和公司的前景。我們的首席財務官兼全球發展總裁 Kevin Jacobs 隨後將回顧我們第二季度的業績並討論我們對今年的預期。在他們的發言之後，我們很樂意回答您的問題。至此，我很高興將電話轉給克里斯。

Thank you, Jill, and good morning, everybody. We appreciate you joining us today. We're excited to report strong second quarter results with RevPAR, adjusted EBITDA and EPS exceeding our expectations. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter had a record $811 million, the highest single quarter in our company's history. Performance continued to be driven by solid fundamentals, along with continued share gains. Our industry-leading brands, strong commercial engines and powerful partnerships continue to strengthen our system and differentiate us from the competition while a culture of innovation continued to fuel additional growth opportunities.

謝謝吉爾，大家早上好。我們感謝您今天加入我們。我們很高興報告第二季度的強勁業績，每間可用收入、調整後的 EBITDA 和每股收益都超出了我們的預期。該季度調整後 EBITDA 達到創紀錄的 8.11 億美元，是我們公司歷史上單季度最高的。業績繼續受到堅實的基本面以及持續的股價上漲的推動。我們的行業領先品牌、強大的商業引擎和強大的合作夥伴關係不斷強化我們的體系，使我們在競爭中脫穎而出，同時創新文化繼續推動額外的增長機會。

Despite macro challenges over the near term, we're confident in our ability to continue driving solid top line and bottom line growth and, in turn, growing free cash flow. Given the strength of our results thus far and our expectations for the rest of the year, we're increasing our guidance for return of capital for the full year to between $2.4 billion and $2.6 billion.

儘管短期內面臨宏觀挑戰，但我們對繼續推動穩健的營收和利潤增長以及自由現金流增長的能力充滿信心。鑑於我們迄今為止的強勁業績以及我們對今年剩餘時間的預期，我們將全年資本回報指引提高至 24 億美元至 26 億美元之間。

Turning to results in the quarter. System-wide RevPAR increased 12.1% year-over-year as strong demand drove continued pricing power across all segments. Systemwide occupancy improved more than 4 points during the quarter to reach 77% in June, our highest level post pandemic. Business transient RevPAR remained strong, growing 11% year-over-year as trends continue to normalize. Leisure RevPAR increased 7% versus last year, driven by solid rate growth and despite more difficult year-over-year comparisons.

轉向本季度的業績。由於強勁的需求推動了所有細分市場持續的定價能力，整個系統的 RevPAR 同比增長 12.1%。本季度全系統入住率提高了 4 個百分點以上，6 月份達到 77%，這是大流行後的最高水平。隨著趨勢繼續正常化，業務瞬態 RevPAR 依然強勁，同比增長 11%。儘管同比比較變得更加困難，但在穩健的利率增長推動下，休閒每間可出租客房收入與去年相比增長了 7%。

Group recovery remained robust in the quarter with RevPAR growing 19% year-over-year. Compared to 2019, system-wide RevPAR grew more than 9% in the quarter with all segments performing well versus prior peaks and accelerating sequentially versus the first quarter. Stable demand and rising rates drove leisure RevPAR growth of 26% versus 2019 and business transient growth of 6%. Group RevPAR was roughly flat versus prior peak levels and improved versus the first quarter. As we look to the back half of the year, we expect continued strength driven by recovery in international markets, business transient and group demand.

本季度集團復甦依然強勁，每間可用客房收入同比增長 19%。與 2019 年相比，本季度全系統 RevPAR 增長了 9% 以上，所有細分市場均比之前的峰值表現良好，並且比第一季度連續加速。穩定的需求和不斷上升的利率推動休閒 RevPAR 較 2019 年增長 26%，商務短暫增長 6%。集團 RevPAR 與之前的峰值水平大致持平，但與第一季度相比有所改善。展望今年下半年，我們預計在國際市場復甦、業務瞬態和集團需求的推動下，經濟將持續強勁。

On the group side, we continue to see very positive trends. Our bookings in the quarter for 2024 arrivals grew 30%, with group position now at 13%, up driven by the corporate segment. And our sales team saw the largest revenue bookings in our history for all future arrival periods. Based on all of that, we now expect full year RevPAR growth of between 10% and 12%.

在集團方面，我們繼續看到非常積極的趨勢。在企業部門的推動下，我們本季度 2024 年抵達的預訂量增長了 30%，團體份額目前為 13%。我們的銷售團隊在所有未來到達期間的預訂收入都達到了歷史最高水平。基於所有這些，我們現在預計全年 RevPAR 增長率將在 10% 至 12% 之間。

Turning to development. We signed more than 36,000 rooms in the second quarter, representing the largest quarterly signings in our history. Conversions accounted for nearly 1/3 of signings in the U.S. Signings in international markets doubled versus last year, accounting for roughly half of system-wide signings in the quarter, driven by strong momentum across Europe and Asia Pacific.

轉向發展。第二季度我們簽約了超過 36,000 間客房，這是我們歷史上最大的季度簽約量。轉換人數占美國簽約人數的近 1/3。在歐洲和亞太地區強勁勢頭的推動下，國際市場的簽約人數比去年增加了一倍，約佔本季度全系統簽約人數的一半。

In Europe, we signed agreements across 14 countries, including our first Tapestry Hotel in the French Riviera and our first Curio in Croatia. In China, Hilton Garden Inn continued to show tremendous growth since launching our new franchise business model. In the quarter, we signed approximately 3,700 HCI rooms in China more than 3x last year and accounting for more than 1/3 of our signings in China. Signings in America were up 20 in the Americas were up 25 year-over-year with strong interest in the U.S. despite tighter credit conditions.

在歐洲，我們在 14 個國家/地區簽署了協議，包括我們在法國里維埃拉的第一家 Tapestry 酒店和我們在克羅地亞的第一家 Curio 酒店。在中國，自推出新的特許經營業務模式以來，希爾頓花園酒店繼續呈現巨大增長。本季度，我們在中國簽約了約 3,700 個 HCI 房間，是去年的 3 倍多，占我們在中國簽約量的 1/3 以上。儘管信貸條件收緊，但美洲地區的簽約量同比增長 20 份，同比增長 25 份，人們對美國的興趣濃厚。

We've signed more than 52 hotels year-to-date, representing the strongest pace since 2017 as the operating success of existing true properties is leading to a surge in new signings. Results were further helped by Spark with approximately 60 hotels signed and another 400 in negotiation just 6 months since its launch.

今年迄今為止，我們已簽約超過 52 家酒店，這是自 2017 年以來最強勁的增長速度，因為現有房地產的運營成功導致新簽約酒店數量激增。 Spark 推出後僅 6 個月，就與約 60 家酒店簽約，另有 400 家酒店處於談判階段，進一步推動了業績。

Nearly all deals are conversions from third-party brands and half represent new owners to Hilton, with our first park scheduled to open in September and roughly 20 by year-end, Spark is well positioned to disrupt the premium economy segment while expanding our customer and owner base, especially in markets where there is no Hilton brand presence today.

幾乎所有交易都是第三方品牌的轉換，一半代表希爾頓的新所有者，我們的第一個公園計劃於 9 月開業，到年底大約有 20 個，Spark 處於有利地位，可以顛覆高端經濟細分市場，同時擴大我們的客戶和所有者基礎，特別是在目前沒有希爾頓品牌存在的市場。

In addition to the strong start for Spark, we recently launched an inventive new extended stay brand in the U.S. Under the working title Project H3, the apartment-style accommodations are designed for guests booking 20 or more nights built with the staying power of Hilton's award-winning hospitality. We have received tremendous interest from owners and developers due to the strong market opportunity, cost-efficient build and high-margin model and we currently have more than 300 deals in negotiation.

除了 Spark 的強勁開局之外，我們最近還在美國推出了一個創造性的新長住品牌，暫定名為 Project H3，該公寓式住宿專為預訂 20 晚或以上的客人而設計，憑藉希爾頓獎的持久力而打造- 贏得熱情好客。由於強大的市場機會、經濟高效的建設和高利潤模式，我們引起了業主和開發商的極大興趣，目前我們有超過 300 筆交易正在談判中。

Our system-wide pipeline now stands at a record 3,000 properties totaling approximately 441,000 rooms, increasing 7% year-over-year and 3% from last quarter. Following another strong quarter of starts, up more than 73% year-over-year roughly and over 40% year-to-date, roughly half of our pipeline is currently under construction.

我們的系統範圍內的酒店儲備目前達到創紀錄的 3,000 家酒店，總計約 441,000 間客房，同比增長 7%，比上季度增長 3%。繼又一個強勁的季度開工量（同比增長約 73% 以上，年初至今增長超過 40%）之後，我們大約一半的管道目前正在建設中。

We have more rooms under construction than any other hotel company ensuring guests will have even more options to stay with us in the years to come. Specifically in the U.S., our under construction pipeline has continued to increase, up 15% year-over-year, which will contribute to increased openings later this year and next. In fact, in the coming weeks, we're going to open nearly 2,000 additional hotel rooms in New York Times Square with the debut of our first-ever tempo by Hilton than a new tri-brand property featuring Home2 Suites, Hampton Inn and Motto.

我們在建的客房數量比任何其他酒店公司都多，確保客人在未來幾年有更多的選擇入住我們的酒店。特別是在美國，我們的在建項目持續增加，同比增長 15%，這將有助於今年晚些時候和明年的開業數量增加。事實上，在接下來的幾週內，我們將在紐約時代廣場新增近 2,000 間酒店客房，同時推出首個由希爾頓酒店 (Tempo by Hilton) 打造的全新三品牌酒店，其中包括 Home2 Suites、Hampton Inn 和 Motto 。

In the quarter, we celebrated several milestones, including the openings of our 2,900 Hampton Inn and our 600 Home2 Suites property, which remains one of the fastest-growing brands in the industry. Additionally, we surpassed 150,000 rooms in Asia Pacific, including the openings of the Hilton Okinawa Miyako Island Resort in Japan and the Conrad Shenzhen, our first luxury hotel in China's thriving technology hub.

本季度，我們慶祝了多個里程碑，包括擁有 2,900 間客房的 Hampton Inn 酒店和擁有 600 間客房的 Home2 Suites 酒店開業，後者仍然是業內增長最快的品牌之一。此外，我們在亞太地區的客房數量已超過 150,000 間，其中包括日本沖繩宮古島希爾頓度假酒店和深圳康萊德酒店（我們在中國蓬勃發展的科技中心開設的第一家豪華酒店）的開業。

We expect openings to accelerate as the year progresses given strong international and conversion trends and expect conversions to account for around 30% of openings. For the full year, we expect net unit growth of approximately 5%. With forecasts for our highest level of signings, the largest pipeline in our history and approaching the largest under-construction pipeline in our history, we expect net unit growth to accelerate to 5% to 6% next year and to return to 6% to 7% over the next couple of years.

鑑於強勁的國際化和轉換趨勢，我們預計隨著時間的推移，職位空缺將加速增長，並預計轉換將佔職位空缺的 30% 左右。我們預計全年淨銷量增長約為 5%。預計我們的簽約量將達到最高水平、歷史上最大的在建管道，並且接近我們歷史上最大的在建管道，我們預計明年淨單位增長將加速至 5% 至 6%，並恢復至 6% 至 7% % 未來幾年。

As part of our commitment to deliver exceptional experiences for guests, we remain focused on initiatives to drive increased loyalty and satisfaction. We know, for instance, that food and beverage experiences are an integral part of travel and want to ensure our hotels themselves are great dining destinations. We recently formed a first-of-its-kind partnership with the James Beard Foundation serving as the premier sponsor of the 2023 restaurant and Chef awards and continue expanding our partnerships with world-class talents such as Michael Mina, Jose Andres, Nancy Silverton and Paul McGee. Hilton Honors remains the fastest-growing hotel loyalty program with more than 165 million members, up 20% year-over-year, driven by strong growth across all major regions.

作為我們為客人提供卓越體驗的承諾的一部分，我們將繼續專注於提高忠誠度和滿意度的舉措。例如，我們知道餐飲體驗是旅行不可或缺的一部分，並希望確保我們的酒店本身就是絕佳的用餐目的地。我們最近與詹姆斯·比爾德基金會 (James Beard Foundation) 建立了前所未有的合作夥伴關係，作為 2023 年餐廳和廚師獎的主要贊助商，並繼續擴大與邁克爾·米納 (Michael Mina)、何塞·安德烈斯 (Jose Andres)、南希·希爾弗頓 (Nancy Silverton) 和保羅·麥吉.希爾頓榮譽客會仍然是增長最快的酒店忠誠度計劃，在所有主要地區的強勁增長推動下，擁有超過 1.65 億會員，同比增長 20%。

Honors members accounted for 64% of occupancy in the quarter, up 2 points year-over-year. Hilton team members and our award-winning culture continue to differentiate our brands from the competition, just yesterday, our Waldorf Astoria, Home2 and Tru brands were named best in category by J.D. Power for their respective segments in North America.

本季度榮譽會員入住率達到 64%，同比上升 2 個百分點。希爾頓團隊成員和我們屢獲殊榮的文化繼續使我們的品牌在競爭中脫穎而出，就在昨天，我們的華爾道夫酒店、Home2 和 Tru 品牌被 J.D. Power 評為北美各自細分市場的最佳類別。

Last week, Hilton was again named as a top employer for millennials for the sixth consecutive year. Since 2016, we've been recognized by Great Place to Work as the world's best hospitality company in over 60 countries. We're thankful for the great work our team members do to serve our guests around the world. We have incredible opportunities ahead to further position ourselves as the leader in hospitality, and we're very excited for the future of travel.

上週，希爾頓連續第六年再次被評為千禧一代最佳雇主。自 2016 年以來，我們在 60 多個國家被 Great Place to Work 評為全球最佳酒店公司。我們感謝我們的團隊成員為服務世界各地的客人所做的出色工作。我們面臨著難以置信的機會，可以進一步將自己定位為酒店業的領導者，我們對旅行的未來感到非常興奮。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Kevin to give you a few more details on the quarter and expectations for the full year.

接下來，我會將電話轉給凱文，向您提供有關本季度的更多詳細信息以及全年的預期。

Thanks, Chris, and good morning, everyone. During the quarter, system-wide RevPAR grew 12% versus the prior year on a comparable and currency-neutral basis. Growth was driven by strong demand growth in APAC as well as continued strength in leisure and steady recovery in business transient and group travel. Adjusted EBITDA was $811 million in the second quarter up 19% year-over-year and exceeding the high end of our guidance range.

謝謝克里斯，大家早上好。本季度，在可比和貨幣中性的基礎上，全系統的 RevPAR 與上年相比增長了 12%。增長的推動因素包括亞太地區需求的強勁增長、休閒旅遊的持續強勁以及商務旅行和團體旅行的穩定復甦。第二季度調整後 EBITDA 為 8.11 億美元，同比增長 19%，超出了我們指導範圍的上限。

Performance was driven by better-than-expected fee growth, largely due to better-than-expected RevPAR performance as well as strong performance in Europe and Japan, benefiting our ownership portfolio. Management franchise fees grew 16% year-over-year, driven by continued RevPAR improvement. For the quarter, diluted earnings per share adjusted for special items was $1.63 increasing 26% year-over-year and exceeding the high end of our guidance range.

業績增長是由好於預期的費用增長推動的，這主要是由於好於預期的 RevPAR 表現以及歐洲和日本的強勁表現，使我們的所有權組合受益。在 RevPAR 持續改善的推動下，管理特許經營費同比增長 16%。本季度，特殊項目調整後的稀釋每股收益為 1.63 美元，同比增長 26%，超出了我們指導範圍的上限。

Turning to our regional performance. Second quarter comparable U.S. RevPAR grew 6% year-over-year with performance led by continued recovery in both business transient and group segments. Leisure demand in the U.S. remained strong but grew more modestly year-over-year due to tougher comparisons. In the Americas outside the U.S., second quarter RevPAR increased 22% year-over-year.

轉向我們的區域表現。第二季度美國可比 RevPAR 同比增長 6%，業績得益於瞬態業務和集團業務的持續復甦。美國的休閒需求依然強勁，但由於更嚴格的比較，同比增長較為溫和。在美國以外的美洲地區，第二季度 RevPAR 同比增長 22%。

Performance was driven by strong group demand particularly at our resort properties. In Europe, RevPAR grew 26% year-over-year. Performance benefited from continued strength in leisure demand and recovery in international inbound travel, particularly from the U.S. In the Middle East and Africa region, RevPAR increased 30% year-over-year, led by rate growth and strong demand from our latest travel.

業績受到強勁的團體需求（尤其是我們的度假酒店）的推動。在歐洲，RevPAR 同比增長 26%。業績得益於休閒需求的持續強勁和國際入境旅遊的複蘇，尤其是來自美國的入境旅遊。在中東和非洲地區，在增長率增長和我們最新旅行的強勁需求的帶動下，每間可用客房收入同比增長了 30%。

In the Asia Pacific region, second quarter RevPAR was up 79% year-over-year led by the continued demand recovery in China. RevPAR in China was up 103% year-over-year in the quarter, an 18-point sequential improvement from the prior quarter and 3% higher than 2019. The rest of the Asia Pacific region also saw significant growth with RevPAR, excluding China, up 52% year-over-year.

在亞太地區，由於中國需求持續復甦，第二季度每間可用房收入同比增長 79%。本季度中國的 RevPAR 同比增長 103%，比上一季度環比提高 18 個百分點，比 2019 年高出 3%。除中國外，亞太其他地區的 RevPAR 也出現了顯著增長，同比增長52%。

Moving to guidance. For the third quarter, we expect system-wide RevPAR growth to be between 4% and 6% year-over-year. We expect adjusted EBITDA of between $790 million and $810 million and diluted EPS adjusted for special items to be between $1.60 and $1.65.

轉向指導。對於第三季度，我們預計全系統 RevPAR 同比增長將在 4% 至 6% 之間。我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 為 7.9 億至 8.1 億美元，特殊項目調整後的稀釋每股收益為 1.60 至 1.65 美元。

For full year 2023, we expect RevPAR growth to be between 10% and 12%. We forecast adjusted EBITDA of between $2.975 billion and $3.025 billion. We forecast diluted EPS adjusted for special items of between $5.93 and $6.06. Please note that our guidance ranges do not incorporate future share repurchases.

2023 年全年，我們預計 RevPAR 增長將在 10% 至 12% 之間。我們預計調整後 EBITDA 為 29.75 億美元至 30.25 億美元之間。我們預計特殊項目調整後的攤薄每股收益在 5.93 美元至 6.06 美元之間。請注意，我們的指導範圍不包括未來的股票回購。

Moving on to capital return. We paid a cash dividend of 15% -- $0.15 per share during the second quarter for a total of $40 million. Our Board also authorized a quarterly dividend of $0.15 per share in the third quarter. Year-to-date, we have returned more than $1 billion to shareholders in the form of buybacks and dividends. And as Chris mentioned earlier, we now expect to return between $2.4 billion and $2.6 billion for the full year.

轉向資本回報。第二季度我們支付了 15% 的現金股息，即每股 0.15 美元，總計 4000 萬美元。我們的董事會還授權在第三季度派發每股 0.15 美元的季度股息。今年迄今為止，我們已以回購和股息的形式向股東返還超過 10 億美元。正如克里斯之前提到的，我們現在預計全年回報在 24 億至 26 億美元之間。

Further details on our second quarter results can be found in the earnings release we issued earlier this morning. This completes our prepared remarks. We would now like to open the line for any questions you may have. We would like to speak with as many of you as possible so we ask that you limit yourself to one question. MJ, can we have our first question, please?

有關我們第二季度業績的更多詳細信息，請參閱我們今天上午早些時候發布的收益報告。我們準備好的發言到此結束。我們現在願意為您解答任何問題。我們希望與盡可能多的人交談，因此我們要求您只回答一個問題。 MJ，我們可以問第一個問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Today's first question comes from Joe Greff with JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）今天的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Joe Greff。

Maybe the first question relates to your net unit growth target for this year, approximately 5% versus the 5% to 5.5% previously. Can you talk about what's driving that? I mean how specific to the U.S. is that -- can you talk about the rate of China development recovery? And then obviously, we all heard what your expectations are for next year in terms of net rooms growth. What gives you the confidence for that acceleration? And what specifically, whether it's brand or geographies is driving that acceleration?

也許第一個問題與今年的淨單位增長目標有關，大約為 5%，而之前為 5% 至 5.5%。您能談談是什麼推動了這一趨勢嗎？我的意思是，這對美國來說有多具體——你能談談中國發展復甦的速度嗎？顯然，我們都聽到了您對明年淨客房增長的期望。是什麼讓您對這種加速充滿信心？具體來說，是品牌還是地理位置推動了這種加速？

Yes. Great question. And no, I'm not surprised that would be the first question. For the record, I think, on the last call, probably 3 different times I said around 5%. So the truth is, since our last call, I don't think our view has really changed much about where our NUG would be this year. And so it is what it is, it was always a bit back-end loaded and the simple reason for that, Joe, is in the numbers. If you look at starts, what's been happening with starts, we had a big surge in starts in the second half of last year. Starts were up second half of '22, 40%.

是的。很好的問題。不，我對這是第一個問題並不感到驚訝。根據記錄，我認為在上次通話中，我可能 3 次不同地提到了 5% 左右。事實上，自從我們上次通話以來，我認為我們對今年 NUG 的看法並沒有真正改變太多。事情就是這樣，它總是有點後端負載，喬，原因很簡單，就在數字中。如果你看看開工率，看看開工率發生了什麼，去年下半年我們的開工率大幅增加。 22 年下半年，開工率增長了 40%。

And if you look at what they are in the first half of this year, as I stated in my introductory comments, they're up 40%. So that means that a bunch of stuff is just translating into the second half of this year and in the next year. And so it really is entirely sort of the timing of -- in the sequencing of how that happens. So we thought it would be around 5%, we still think it will be around 5%.

如果你看看今年上半年的情況，正如我在介紹性評論中所說，它們增長了 40%。因此，這意味著今年下半年和明年會有很多事情發生。因此，這確實完全取決於發生的時間順序。所以我們認為會在 5% 左右，我們仍然認為會在 5% 左右。

Our confidence in going back on the way back up, I do feel like -- if we look at the data, it's not just pure optimism, although everybody knows I'm an optimistic sort. I mean if you look at the data, as I already said, starts were way up in the second half of last year. They've been way up in the first half of this year, we continue to see good momentum there.

我們對恢復信心有信心，我確實覺得——如果我們看一下數據，這不僅僅是純粹的樂觀，儘管每個人都知道我是一個樂觀的人。我的意思是，如果你看一下數據，正如我已經說過的，去年下半年的開工率大幅上升。今年上半年它們已經大幅上漲，我們繼續看到良好的勢頭。

Same with signings. I mean, we expect, as I said in my comments, have a record year in signings relative to our prior peak and that -- all of those things are translating into both our optimism about the second half of this year being much stronger than the first half and 2024 being much, much better. It's a bunch of different things that are contributing to that. It's really all regions, even though arguably the U.S. credit conditions are -- make it more challenging. As I already said, we're still up year-to-date -- over the last -- over the trailing 12 months, 15% in starts.

與簽名相同。我的意思是，正如我在評論中所說，我們預計今年的簽約數量將比之前的峰值創下歷史新高，所有這些都轉化為我們對今年下半年的樂觀態度比去年要強得多。上半年和 2024 年要好得多。這是一系列不同的因素促成的。這確實是所有地區的問題，儘管可以說美國的信貸狀況使其更具挑戰性。正如我已經說過的，過去 12 個月以來，我們今年迄今（較去年）仍處於增長狀態，開工率增長了 15%。

And we have some other nice things that are going to add to our growth here in the United States with Spark. We're only going to open 20 this year. You should assume we're going to open a lot more than that next year and Home3 will start contributing H3 will start contributing next year, probably not a ton, but that is a much more financeable product, even in today's environment because it's probably more apartment than it is a hotel. We are broadly having really good success on conversions and Europe, which had been slow, has really started to pick up. And Asia Pacific really led by China has woken up and the engines have not just restarted, but they're really starting to fire on many more cylinders, I wouldn't say it's all the way there yet, but in the second quarter and our expectation for third and fourth is we're going to start to get a very good momentum.

我們還有其他一些好東西，將通過 Spark 促進我們在美國的發展。我們今年只開20家。你應該假設我們明年會開更多的店，Home3 將開始貢獻 H3 明年將開始貢獻，可能不會很多，但這是一個更經濟的產品，即使在今天的環境下，因為它可能更多公寓與其說是酒店，不如說是酒店。我們在轉型方面取得了巨大的成功，而此前進展緩慢的歐洲也確實開始復蘇。由中國領導的亞太地區已經甦醒，引擎不僅重新啟動，而且確實開始在更多的氣缸上點火，我不會說已經完全實現了這一目標，但在第二季度和我們的對第三和第四的期望是我們將開始獲得非常好的勢頭。

And so that's why we feel pretty darn good on the NUG for next year. Obviously, for giving you a range, I would sort of direct you to the middle of it. If some things go our way and the world stays relatively stable, I think we can be mid-range of that or above, but it's a little bit early in the year to go quite that far. We'll, obviously, next quarter and the following quarter, we'll update you. But I think -- what I would say to people is, again, it's objectively based on things that success we're having in conversions, the success we're having in demand for Spark, conversions all over the world, Spark here.

這就是為什麼我們對明年的 NUG 感覺非常好。顯然，為了給你一個範圍，我會引導你到它的中間。如果某些事情按照我們的意願進行，並且世界保持相對穩定，我認為我們可以達到中間範圍或以上，但今年走這麼遠還為時過早。顯然，我們會在下個季度和下個季度向您通報最新情況。但我認為，我要對人們說的是，它客觀地基於我們在轉換方面所取得的成功、我們對 Spark 的需求所取得的成功、世界各地的轉換、這裡的 Spark。

By the way, we will take Spark to Europe relatively quickly and just what we have in the pipeline, I mean, almost half of our pipelines under construction more than anybody in the industry. And once they start, they almost always finish. So that pickup starting in Q3 last year is starting to pay dividends. And thankfully, the pickup in starts has continued everywhere in the world. And as I said, the world is a big place. So there's a little bit more pressure in the U.S. even though our numbers are still good but a lot less pressure in some other parts of the world that had been feeling it, which is the benefit of a big diversified global business.

順便說一句，我們將相對較快地將 Spark 帶到歐洲，我的意思是，我們正在建設的管道中有近一半比業內任何人都多。一旦開始，他們幾乎總是會結束。因此，去年第三季度開始的回升開始帶來紅利。值得慶幸的是，世界各地的開工率持續回升。正如我所說，世界很大。因此，儘管我們的數據仍然不錯，但在美國面臨的壓力要大一些，但在世界其他一些感受到壓力的地區，壓力要小得多，這是大型多元化全球業務的好處。

The next question comes from Shaun Kelley with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的肖恩·凱利。

I guess if we've covered the net unit growth side. Chris, I'll ask a little bit of the same around sort of the RevPAR outlook. I'd like to gear it to sort of incremental kind of changes or upside for the second half? Just kind of what's the biggest difference to kind of your prior outlook that gave you some confidence there? And then just any pressures or concerns you're seeing on the leisure normalization point. It's a question we take a lot and just kind of maybe update us on the latest you're seeing as we move through some of these really tough comps in the summer. How is behavior out there? And what's going better or a little worse than anticipated at this point?

我想我們是否已經涵蓋了淨單位增長方面。克里斯，我會就 RevPAR 前景提出一些同樣的問題。我想讓它適應下半年的增量變化或上行空間？與您之前給您帶來信心的看法相比，最大的區別是什麼？然後是您在休閒正常化點上看到的任何壓力或擔憂。這是一個我們經常提出的問題，當我們在夏天進行一些非常艱難的比賽時，也許可以向我們通報您所看到的最新情況。那裡的行為如何？目前情況比預期好還是差一點？

Yes, happy to. So yes, we moved our numbers up for the second half of the year and thus impacted the full year. That was set on the basis that we're just seeing better results. We -- as we say very regularly, we're not economists, so we try and take the consensus view of what's going on in the macro. The consensus view last quarter was that the second half of the year would see a little bit more meaningful slowdown.

是的，很高興。所以，是的，我們提高了下半年的數字，從而影響了全年。這是基於我們剛剛看到更好的結果而設定的。正如我們經常說的那樣，我們不是經濟學家，因此我們嘗試對宏觀形勢採取共識。上季度的共識是，今年下半年將出現更有意義的放緩。

I think the consensus for you right now, I mean, you can pick somebody, but it broadly is that it's going to slow down, but it's more of a soft landing and later in the year and more in the next year. And so when we factor for that and we look at the momentum, obviously, we've already booked a half a year and we look at what we have reasonable sidelines now into the third quarter, which we feel very good about.

我認為你現在的共識是，你可以選擇某人，但總的來說，它會放緩，但更多的是軟著陸，在今年晚些時候，在明年更多。因此，當我們考慮到這一點並考慮到勢頭時，顯然，我們已經預訂了半年的時間，我們看看現在進入第三季度的合理的休息時間，我們對此感覺非常好。

And as we look at the fourth quarter, we would probably say the macro views that things will slow. And so we've assumed that, but probably the macro view is that they saw a little bit less than maybe last quarter. And so when you flush all that through, it results in an increase in our guidance. Now there's possible upside if the fourth quarter keeps going like we saw in the second and what it looks like we're going to see in the third, there may be potential. But it certainly warranted increasing our guidance based on where -- what we've already booked for the year, what we see at a macro view in the late part of the year. I mean the interesting thing is like everybody wants to will the business backwards, but we don't really see it. I gave you the stats on leisure, business transient and group.

當我們展望第四季度時，我們可能會說宏觀觀點認為事情將會放緩。所以我們假設了這一點，但宏觀觀點可能是他們看到的數據可能比上季度少了一點。因此，當你將所有這些都清空時，我們的指導就會增加。現在，如果第四季度繼續像我們在第二季度看到的那樣發展，並且我們將在第三季度看到什麼，那麼可能會有潛力。但這確實有必要根據我們今年已經預訂的情況以及我們在今年下半年的宏觀角度看到的情況來增加我們的指導。我的意思是，有趣的是，每個人都希望讓業務倒退，但我們並沒有真正看到這一點。我給了你休閒、商務短暫和團體的統計數據。

I gave you some sense of where we have really good forward-looking information, which is really on the group segment remaining really, really strong. I mean, obviously, leisure is growing at a somewhat slower pace because of the comps, but I mean it's still way over the prior high watermarks and business transient keeps grinding up and getting better and the same with group.

我向您介紹了我們在哪些方面擁有非常好的前瞻性信息，這些信息確實表明集團業務仍然非常非常強勁。我的意思是，很明顯，由於競爭，休閒的增長速度有所放緩，但我的意思是它仍然遠遠超出了之前的高水位線，並且業務瞬態不斷磨礪並變得更好，並且與團隊相同。

So as I'm sitting here today, honestly, while we will take a macro view of later in the year because we're not economists, we're not seeing any signs of weakness. I know there's a lot of questions on the leisure business. I mean what I would say to you is like we're not seeing -- we're having it a wildly strong summer in leisure. I mean the only places where leisure has backed off a bit is where you would expect it, where it's normalizing from like crazy highs. It's still in those markets, which I'll talk about way over '19 levels.

因此，老實說，當我今天坐在這裡時，雖然我們將在今年晚些時候進行宏觀展望，因為我們不是經濟學家，但我們沒有看到任何疲軟的跡象。我知道人們對休閒產業有很多疑問。我的意思是，我要對你說的是，就像我們沒有看到的那樣——我們正在度過一個非常悠閒的夏天。我的意思是，休閒活動有所減少的唯一地方就是你所期望的地方，那裡的休閒活動正從瘋狂的高潮恢復正常。這些市場仍然存在，我將談論遠遠超過 19 年水平的情況。

But I mean it's just sort of coming back, not even to earth, but sort of in our universe, I guess and those are markets like South Florida, Hawaii, parts of Southern California where it was just like it was insane. But broadly, we have a very diversified leisure business. Broadly, we're not really -- again, other than comps being harder, we continue to see good growth and we expect to -- and at least what sidelines we have in the business transient, talking to a bunch of customers, which I've done very recently. And certainly, our sales team talks to them all the time, and we got everybody together upsize as we always do last week to talk about it.

但我的意思是，它只是某種程度的回歸，甚至不是回到地球，而是在我們的宇宙中，我想這些市場就像南佛羅里達州、夏威夷州、南加州的部分地區一樣，在那裡它就像是瘋了一樣。但總的來說，我們的休閒業務非常多元化。總的來說，我們並沒有真正 - 再次，除了比較變得更加困難之外，我們繼續看到良好的增長，並且我們預計 - 至少我們在業務瞬態中擁有什麼副業，與一群客戶交談，我認為最近剛做過。當然，我們的銷售團隊一直在與他們交談，我們讓每個人都聚在一起討論這個問題，就像我們上週所做的那樣。

They're feeling quite good, particularly the SMBs, which is at this point, 85% plus of our business. They're traveling more. They're feeling reasonably good about soft landing in their business. And then group and there's pent-up demand there and group, there's still huge amounts of pent-up demand that haven't been released, as I said, we're -- we had the best booking quarter in our history ever in the second quarter and our position is great for next year. And you're still not where you're going to be with all the big associations because that was really driven by corporate group.

他們感覺非常好，尤其是中小型企業，目前他們占我們業務的 85% 以上。他們旅行的次數更多了。他們對業務的軟著陸感覺相當良好。然後，還有大量被壓抑的需求尚未釋放，正如我所說，我們——我們經歷了歷史上最好的預訂季度第二季度，我們明年的情況很好。而且你仍然沒有達到所有大型協會的水平，因為這實際上是由企業集團推動的。

So a bunch of the big association groups, I mean, they are booking, but that's multiyear booking cycles, that's still to come and so we don't see weakness. Obviously, we're sentient and we know what the Fed is trying to do. We'll hear this afternoon, what the next steps are? I expect they are going to raise rates but I do think we're probably getting to the end-ish of that tightening cycle.

我的意思是，許多大型協會團體正在預訂，但這是多年的預訂週期，這仍然是未來，所以我們沒有看到弱點。顯然，我們是有感知力的，我們知道美聯儲想要做什麼。我們將在今天下午聽到，接下來的步驟是什麼？我預計他們將加息，但我確實認為我們可能即將結束緊縮週期。

Inflation is coming down, some of the lag indicators that will eventually come into the inflation numbers. Housing in particular is definitely real time coming down and will eventually show up. And so I do think -- we'll see. Again, I'm not an economist, but I do think consensus view is starting to center around a softer landing, maybe late this year or sometime next year. And that feels rational based on everything going on. And as I said, our business, we're not seeing any real cracks anywhere. And of course, the places in the world that had been lagging are now starting to like produce. So the most significant lag everywhere was doing really well, but China -- and now China is eclipsing prior high watermarks and getting going on development, as I already said, but also operationally, eclipsing 2019 numbers.

通貨膨脹正在下降，一些滯後指標最終將反映在通貨膨脹數據中。尤其是住房肯定是實時下降的，並且最終會出現。所以我確實認為——我們拭目以待。再說一次，我不是經濟學家，但我確實認為共識觀點開始集中在軟著陸上，也許是在今年年底或明年的某個時候。基於正在發生的一切，這感覺很合理。正如我所說，我們的業務在任何地方都沒有看到任何真正的裂縫。當然，世界上那些一直落後的地方現在開始喜歡農產品。因此，最明顯的滯後是世界各地都表現得很好，但中國——現在中國正在超越之前的高水位線並開始發展，正如我已經說過的，但在運營方面，也超越了 2019 年的數字。

So not to be a poly -- it all feels pretty good and if we can orchestrate a slowdown but a reasonably soft landing, I think the rest of this year is going to be very solid and in line or better than what we said. And I think next year will be a darn good year because I still think there'll be strength in leisure, but particularly, there'll be if you get a reasonably decent slowdown soft landing, you're going to have continued growth in business transient, particularly with SMBs, which is the vast majority of the business. And group is going to be pretty sticky because people just have to do some of the stuff and particularly in a soft landing environment, I don't think you're going to see a big change there anytime soon.

因此，不要成為一個保利--這一切感覺都很好，如果我們能夠策劃放緩但相當軟的著陸，我認為今年剩下的時間將非常穩固，符合或比我們所說的更好。我認為明年將是非常好的一年，因為我仍然認為休閒領域將會強勁，但特別是，如果你獲得相當不錯的放緩軟著陸，你的業務將會持續增長瞬態的，特別是對於中小企業來說，這是絕大多數業務。團隊將會非常粘，因為人們只需要做一些事情，特別是在軟著陸環境中，我認為你不會很快看到那裡發生重大變化。

So it's early. I'm not going to -- like, obviously, I'm not going to give guidance yet for next year. We're not it's sort of crazy to do that. We got a lot of year to see how things play out. But I sit here today, I feel quite good about the rest of this year. I actually feel quite good about as we later this summer get into budget season, how we feel about next year. And that's reflected, as you not surprisingly. And the guidance we're giving the increase in our return of capital, I mean I think that should be read for what it is.

所以現在還早。我不會——顯然，我不會為明年提供指導。我們並不認為這樣做有點瘋狂。我們還有很多年的時間來看看事情會如何發展。但今天我坐在這裡，我對今年剩下的時間感覺很好。事實上，當我們今年夏天晚些時候進入預算季節時，我對明年的感覺非常滿意。這已經反映出來了，這並不奇怪。我們給出的增加資本回報的指導，我的意思是我認為應該認真閱讀它的本質。

The next question comes from Stephen Grambling with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的斯蒂芬·格蘭布林。

I know you don't want to get 2024 guidance, but if we go all the way back to the split off, you had outlined this algorithm of 1% to 3% RevPAR growth kind of translating to 14% to 23% EPS algorithm with kind of 6% NUG. You're talking about the reacceleration of NUG basically in that range but what other changes in the business should investors be thinking through as we compare and contrast that algorithm to today whether it's thinking about royalty rates or pipeline or other fees?

我知道您不想獲得 2024 年的指導，但如果我們一路回到拆分，您已經概述了這種 1% 至 3% RevPAR 增長的算法，可轉換為 14% 至 23% EPS 算法大約 6% NUG。您談論的是 NUG 基本上在該範圍內的重新加速，但是當我們將該算法與今天的算法進行比較和對比時，投資者應該考慮業務中的其他哪些變化，無論是考慮特許權使用費、管道還是其他費用？

I think that the algorithm stands. I mean -- and in fact, even -- by the way, while NUG has been a little bit lower, RevPAR has been higher. I mean it's a pretty perfect hedge, meaning -- we've been running a little lower on one, a little higher on the other. My guess is it's going to flip around over the next couple of years. And as I said, we're going to get back to 6% to 7% and same-store growth is going to normalize. But we think the algorithm is alive and well and will deliver at those -- in those ranges that we've talked about as a result of increased growth rates from where we are, increased license fee rates, overall RevPAR growth, the deals that we've done on the licensing side, which generally drag us up because they're at or above algorithm growth rates.

我認為該算法是成立的。我的意思是——事實上，甚至——順便說一句，雖然 NUG 有點低，但 RevPAR 卻更高。我的意思是，這是一個非常完美的對沖，意思是——我們在一個方面走得低一點，在另一個方面走高一點。我的猜測是，未來幾年情況將會發生逆轉。正如我所說，我們將恢復到 6% 至 7%，同店增長將趨於正常化。但我們認為該算法仍然有效，並且將在我們討論過的那些範圍內實現，這是由於增長率的提高、許可費率的提高、整體 RevPAR 的增長、我們所進行的交易我們在許可方面做了很多工作，這通常會拖累我們，因為它們達到或高於算法增長率。

We feel very good about that algorithm that we laid out in 2016 that it's alive and well in producing. And as a result, we're producing today more free cash flow than we ever had in history, which is what allows us to return so much capital. Again, that will keep -- both of those things will keep going up as well.

我們對 2016 年提出的算法感到非常滿意，它在生產中表現良好。因此，我們今天產生的自由現金流比歷史上任何時候都多，這使我們能夠回報如此多的資本。同樣，這將繼續下去——這兩件事也將繼續上升。

The next question comes from David Katz with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自杰弗里斯的大衛·卡茨。

I wanted to talk about just the strategic philosophies around brands. You've been highly productive at launching brands and just observing that a lot of the growth has been sort of in the middle and mid-scale and limited service, et cetera. How do you think about launching stuff potentially at the higher end? Or do you not sort of want or need those? Or -- and just help us understand how you decide where to launch.

我想談談品牌的戰略哲學。您在推出品牌方面一直非常高效，並且觀察到大部分增長都集中在中型和中等規模以及有限的服務等方面。您如何看待可能推出高端產品？或者你不想要或不需要這些？或者 - 只是幫助我們了解您如何決定在哪裡啟動。

Sure, David. Thanks. Really good question. So yes, I got here with Kevin and others about 16 years ago, and this company had 9 brands that were pretty good, but not performing that well today, we have 22 brands. So we have, I think, really built a very powerful sort of engine of innovation to figure out what customers want, what segments we're missing and to give them more of what they want and do it with very high-quality brands and then deliver commercial performance that's winning performance and market-leading performance so that we attract lots of capital.

當然，大衛。謝謝。真是個好問題。所以，是的，大約 16 年前我和 Kevin 等人來到這裡，這家公司有 9 個相當不錯的品牌，但今天表現不佳，我們有 22 個品牌。因此，我認為，我們確實建立了一種非常強大的創新引擎，以找出客戶想要什麼，我們缺少哪些細分市場，並為他們提供更多他們想要的東西，並通過非常高質量的品牌來做到這一點，然後提供致勝業績和市場領先業績的商業業績，從而吸引大量資本。

I don't think we have a brand and we have some that are early, but I don't think we have a brand. I know we don't that isn't performing at -- either equal to or above everybody in the space. And so listen, I say that sort of patting us on the back because I'm very proud of that. Every company has different strategies. We think this strategy is a winning strategy because it delivers better products for our customers over time that meet the market in a modern context and it's better from a return point of view because we're doing it with blood, sweat and tears and not investing capital.

我不認為我們有品牌，我們有一些早期的品牌，但我不認為我們有品牌。我知道我們的表現並不等於或高於該領域的每個人。聽著，我這樣說是在拍拍我們的背，因為我對此感到非常自豪。每個公司都有不同的策略。我們認為這一戰略是一個制勝戰略，因為隨著時間的推移，它可以為我們的客戶提供更好的產品，滿足現代環境下的市場需求，從回報的角度來看，它更好，因為我們是用血、汗和淚水來做這件事，而不是投資。首都。

And so it's an infinite return and better for the customers is sort of how do you not like it. Many of those brands, not all, and I'll talk about that, have been in the mid-market. Why? Because that's the biggest opportunity. And so we're trying to serve any customer for any need to have anywhere they want in the world. But obviously, we have focused a lot on where the big markets are, where the big addressable TAMs are, total addressable markets and there's no way you could debate that every segment is important, but the mid-market is where the people are.

所以這是一個無限的回報，對客戶來說更好就是你不喜歡它。其中許多品牌（不是全部）（我將談論這一點）已經進入了中端市場。為什麼？因為那是最大的機會。因此，我們正在努力為任何客戶提供服務，以滿足他們在世界任何地方的任何需求。但顯然，我們非常關注大市場在哪裡，大的可尋址TAM在哪裡，總的可尋址市場，你不可能爭論每個細分市場都很重要，但中端市場是人們所在的地方。

I mean the big demographic trend in the world, I don't have to tell anybody on this call is growing middle classes all over the world, right? And that's where the money is and those people can afford mid-market hotels. And so when you wake up in 10 or 20 years, the bulk of the rooms growth in the world, that's the bulk of the money that's going to be made is in the mid-market. So that's why we have focused there but we have not focused exclusively there. We've done a bunch of things in the lifestyle space, with Urban Micro like Motto, with Tempo, with Canopy at the upper upscale lifestyle segment. And obviously, in the luxury space, we have made huge strides. I mean, Waldorf existed but wasn't really a brand and Conrad was not much to speak about. And LXR didn't exist.

我的意思是世界上的人口大趨勢，我不必告訴任何人在這個電話會議上世界各地的中產階級都在增長，對嗎？這就是錢的所在，這些人可以負擔得起中端市場的酒店。因此，當你在 10 或 20 年後醒來時，世界上大部分房間都在增長，這就是將要賺到的大部分錢都來自中端市場。這就是為什麼我們專注於那裡，但我們並沒有專門專注於那裡。我們在生活方式領域做了很多事情，比如 Motto、Tempo、Canopy 等高端生活方式領域的產品。顯然，在奢侈品領域，我們已經取得了巨大進步。我的意思是，華爾道夫確實存在，但並不是一個真正的品牌，而康拉德也沒什麼可說的。而 LXR 並不存在。

And so we've gone from essentially a few hotels to a 100 world-class luxury hotels with another nearly 60 in the pipeline. And by the way, I said it, but this morning, if you look at Bloomberg or whatever, Waldorf Astoria was ranked the #1 luxury brand, Eclipse Ritz-Carlton and customer satisfaction in North America.

因此，我們已經從最初的幾家酒店發展到擁有 100 家世界級豪華酒店，另有近 60 家酒店正在籌備中。順便說一句，我說過，但今天早上，如果你看看彭博社或其他什麼網站，華爾道夫酒店被評為北美豪華品牌、Eclipse 麗思卡爾頓和客戶滿意度第一名。

So we're making really good strides there. And I think there are more opportunities. I would say, listen, we've talked about this for a long time and the only reason we haven't done it is because we've had other market opportunities that we thought would drive, would serve more customers, drive higher growth and create more value for shareholders but luxury lifestyle is definitely -- I mean, we're in and around the lifestyle segment, LXR to a degree is sort of luxury lifestyle. But we don't have a pure hard brand in the luxury lifestyle. Yes, we will. I would say we're doing developmental work there. We want to give our babies Spark and H3. While H3, we need to give a name, which we're close to and then we need to make sure they become little toddlers and are successful but we're doing developmental work in luxury lifestyle.

所以我們在這方面取得了很大的進展。而且我認為還有更多機會。我想說，聽著，我們已經討論這個問題很長時間了，我們沒有這樣做的唯一原因是因為我們有其他市場機會，我們認為這些機會會推動、服務更多客戶、推動更高的增長和為股東創造更多價值，但奢華生活方式絕對是——我的意思是，我們處於生活方式領域及其周圍，LXR 在某種程度上是一種奢華生活方式。但我們在奢侈生活方式中並沒有純粹的硬品牌。是的，我們會。我想說我們正在那裡進行開發工作。我們想給我們的寶寶Spark和H3。當H3時，我們需要給出一個我們接近的名字，然後我們需要確保他們成為小孩子並取得成功，但我們正在奢華生活方式方面進行開發工作。

I would expect in the next year, we'll launch something in that space to sort of add to the 3 brands we have already in the luxury space to give us another shot on goal for luxury opportunities around the world. But the -- and so luxury and lifestyle are hugely important to us because customers like it, and we give them lots and lots of opportunities. But again, the big mass market opportunity every -- in every major market in the world is the mid-market. And so we are not ashamed of saying we are -- we have every intention to have the best brands in every market to serve mid-market because we think that's where the most money will be made over the next 10 or 20 or 30 years.

我預計明年，我們將在該領域推出一些新產品，以補充我們在奢侈品領域已有的 3 個品牌，為我們在全球範圍內爭取奢侈品機會的目標提供又一次機會。但是，奢侈品和生活方式對我們來說非常重要，因為客戶喜歡它，我們為他們提供了很多很多的機會。但同樣，世界上每個主要市場中的巨大大眾市場機會都是中端市場。因此，我們並不羞於說我們是——我們完全有意在每個市場擁有最好的品牌來服務中端市場，因為我們認為這是未來 10 年、20 年或 30 年最賺錢的領域。

Understood. And if I can just follow up on one detail and if I'm over beating the horse, apologies. With respect to the NUG for the remainder of this year, I just want to be as clear as possible about whether there was some one tough comps pull forward or any projects that have slid into next year that are elevating.

明白了。如果我能跟進一個細節，如果我做得太過分了，我深表歉意。關於今年剩餘時間的 NUG，我只想盡可能清楚地了解是否有一些艱難的比賽向前推進，或者是否有任何已滑入明年的項目正在提升。

I'm not really. I mean not really. As I said in the last call, I said around 5%. And if you go listen to it, maybe 3 times I mean a little bit, although it's not meaning -- I mean, listen, we were hoping from the standpoint of the momentum that we have in Spark. We were hoping to have 50 hotels open this year. I think by the last quarter, we realized that wasn't going to happen. But we're going to have, as I said, we're going to probably have 20. There's no problem. I mean we have 400 deals in negotiation with hundreds more coming over the threshold. It's just -- and the supply chain stuff is now set up and moving. It was a lot of moving parts as we get set up. And so -- that probably has a tiny bit of impact. I mean 20 to 50 is a few thousand rooms. But otherwise, not really -- not really -- I mean, again, I said around 5%. I'm still -- we still think it's around 5%.

我真的不是。我的意思是不是真的。正如我在上次電話中所說，我說的是 5% 左右。如果你去聽它，也許 3 次我的意思是一點點，儘管它沒有意義 - 我的意思是，聽著，我們希望從 Spark 的勢頭的角度來看。我們希望今年能開業 50 家酒店。我認為到上個季度，我們意識到這不會發生。但正如我所說，我們可能會有 20 個。沒問題。我的意思是，我們有 400 項交易正在談判中，還有數百項即將超過門檻。只是——供應鏈的東西現在已經建立起來並正在移動。當我們開始設置時，有很多移動部件。所以——這可能會產生一點點影響。我的意思是20到50個就是幾千個房間。但除此之外，不是真的——不是真的——我的意思是，我再說一遍，我說的是 5% 左右。我仍然——我們仍然認為這個比例在 5% 左右。

Yes, David, I think not to go too far on. I think I'd just add that there's a reason why we signaled 5% last quarter, another quarter has gone by. So the second quarter is sort of in terms of openings played out the way we were thinking it would, which is why we were signaling we weren't yet ready to adjust the official guidance. All we've done now is crystallized with a happy year in the books and have a year left that what we thought was going to happen in the second quarter happened. And then if you think about the momentum, I mean, Chris already talked about this, but the momentum in approvals and starts, I'd say it was a better experience in the second quarter than we were expecting a quarter ago.

是的，大衛，我認為不要走得太遠。我想我想補充一點，我們上個季度表示增長 5% 是有原因的，但又一個季度過去了。因此，第二季度的空缺情況有點像我們想像的那樣，這就是為什麼我們表示我們尚未準備好調整官方指導。我們現在所做的一切都已在書中具體化了快樂的一年，並且還剩一年時間我們認為將在第二季度發生的事情發生了。然後，如果你考慮一下勢頭，我的意思是，克里斯已經談到了這一點，但是批准和啟動的勢頭，我想說第二季度的體驗比我們一個季度前的預期更好。

The next question comes from Smedes Rose with Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Smedes Rose。

I just wanted to ask you a little bit about occupancy levels. When we look at the U.S. data and I think is true for Hilton versus 2019 is a reasonable sort of gap to prior peak occupancy levels or pre-pandemic occupancy levels. But it sounds like from what you're saying, you think maybe the continued improvement in group trends will kind of close that gap? Or is certainly be something else you're seeing? Or do you think it's just structurally lower going forward? Just kind of curious how you think that evolves over the next -- through the balance of the year and maybe just going forward?

我只是想問你一些關於入住率的問題。當我們查看美國的數據時，我認為希爾頓與 2019 年的數據相比，與之前的峰值入住率或大流行前的入住率水平存在合理的差距。但從你的說法來看，你認為群體趨勢的持續改善也許會縮小這一差距？或者肯定是您看到的其他東西？或者您認為未來只是結構性下降？只是有點好奇你認為接下來的情況會如何發展——在今年的剩餘時間裡，也許只是繼續前進？

Yes. For us, it's been better than the industry. We're 3 or 4 percentage points off of depending on when you look at it off of peak occupancies. I think that you sort of noted some of the issues. I think part of it is happening because of the group. It's still -- our group is getting there, but it's still building. Part of it is -- and that's impacting a bunch of the cities, right, that have recovered a lot most of them. There are a couple of exceptions or one big exception, but most of the cities have recovered. But from an occupancy point of view, they're still off because they don't have the big citywide spec.

是的。對我們來說，這比行業要好。我們比高峰入住率低 3 或 4 個百分點，具體取決於您何時查看。我認為您注意到了一些問題。我認為這部分是由於團隊的原因而發生的。我們的團隊正在實現這一目標，但仍在建設中。部分原因是——這正在影響許多城市，對吧，其中大部分已經恢復了。雖然有幾個例外或一個重大例外，但大多數城市已經恢復。但從入住率的角度來看，他們仍然處於關閉狀態，因為他們沒有全市範圍的大規格。

So I do think it is partly the group. And then the other thing that's going on is, I sort of kid not to be a smart ask about it, but part of it is pricing, right? So if you said to me, could we drive occupancy consistent with the prior peak. The answer is, yes, I could probably do it in the next couple of days, but it wouldn't be the right answer. Meaning, we are pushing hard on price because we've been obviously in a highly inflationary environment. And from the standpoint of trying to make our hotel owners the most money, that relative trade is the right trade, keep pushing price hard even though it might impact occupancy.

所以我確實認為這部分是團體的原因。然後發生的另一件事是，我有點小孩子不聰明地問這個問題，但其中一部分是定價，對吧？因此，如果您對我說，我們能否使入住率與之前的峰值保持一致。答案是，是的，我可能會在接下來的幾天內完成，但這不是正確的答案。這意味著，我們正在大力推動價格上漲，因為我們顯然處於高度通脹的環境中。從試圖讓我們的酒店業主賺到最多錢的角度來看，相對交易是正確的交易，繼續大力推高價格，即使這可能會影響入住率。

The bottom line is better because the flow-through run rates a heck of a lot better than the flow-through on occupancy. So part of this is, yes, there's still goods coming back. You have business transient is still particularly the big corporates are only 92% back, part of -- and they'll come back no matter what they say, by the way, over the next few years, they'll come back. You heard it here, I'm telling you they'll come back. But a bigger part of it is, honestly, yield management strategies. I mean, we're really trying to push rate and we don't want to give -- we're not as worried because it's a better outcome for every -- better outcome for us, our owners make more money to drive higher margins.

底線更好，因為流通運行率比流通率要好得多。所以部分原因是，是的，仍然有貨物回來。業務瞬息萬變，特別是大公司只有 92% 回來了，一部分——而且無論他們說什麼，他們都會回來，順便說一句，在接下來的幾年裡，他們會回來的。你在這裡聽到了，我告訴你他們會回來的。但老實說，其中更重要的部分是收益管理策略。我的意思是，我們真的在努力提高利率，但我們不想付出——我們並不那麼擔心，因為這對每個人來說都是更好的結果——對我們來說更好的結果，我們的所有者賺更多的錢來提高利潤率。

The next question comes from Brandt Montour with Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的布蘭特·蒙圖爾。

Just a follow-up on that, Chris. Industry ADR growth has been tracking below inflation since April. Inflation is probably expected to ease further. And I know your pricing is based on supply and demand and you're pushing rate. And I'm trying to just reconcile those 2 forces as we look into the back half of this year, and maybe you could also just add in what your core SME or your core business transient ADR pricing growth is looking like and if that is in excess of inflation today.

只是後續行動，克里斯。自四月份以來，行業 ADR 增長一直低於通脹率。預計通脹可能會進一步放緩。我知道你們的定價是基於供求關係，並且你們正在提高利率。當我們展望今年下半年時，我正在努力協調這兩種力量，也許您也可以添加您的核心中小企業或核心業務的短暫 ADR 定價增長情況，如果這是在今天的通貨膨脹率過高。

The answer is yes. I mean there is a tiny disconnect in timing. But I'd say the core pricing of our transient products, whether that's leisure or leisure transient or business transient is keeping up with inflation at its current levels. And obviously, we expect that to continue to come down. We feel good about the pricing power, again, with all the assumptions I already commented on about my view or the macro view that we've adopted for the back half of the year. And as we go into next year, and we think the broader environment is generally supportive for continued rate strength.

答案是肯定的。我的意思是時間上有微小的脫節。但我想說的是，我們的瞬態產品的核心定價，無論是休閒、休閒瞬態還是商務瞬態，都與當前水平的通脹保持同步。顯然，我們預計這一數字將繼續下降。我們對定價能力再次感到滿意，因為我已經評論了我的觀點或我們今年下半年採用的宏觀觀點的所有假設。當我們進入明年時，我們認為更廣泛的環境總體上支持利率持續走強。

I mean the one thing -- it's funny we talked -- I kid our team around here, it's like we've been living a little bit in Bizarro World coming through COVID, obviously, and then in the aftermath, where you saw will be about fundamentals. That's all we would ever talk about on these calls. It all has ever talked about with investors, the fundamentals of demand, what's going on with demand and what's going on with supply. In Bizarro World, nobody talks -- nobody cares about supply. But we're normal -- I mean, everything is just getting reasonably close to a more normalized environment.

我的意思是有一件事 - 我們談論的很有趣 - 我欺騙我們的團隊在這裡，這就像我們在經歷了新冠病毒之後，在奇怪的世界中生活了一點，顯然，然後在之後，你會看到關於基本面。這就是我們在這些電話中談論的全部內容。這一切都曾與投資者談論過，需求的基本面、需求的情況以及供應的情況。在奇異世界中，沒有人說話——沒有人關心供應。但我們很正常——我的意思是，一切都在相當接近更加正常化的環境。

Prices are higher, okay, but that's just a broader reset that's happened throughout the entire economy, which I think unless you have broad disinflation, which it doesn't feel like that's happening anytime soon, that's sustained. And so you've sort of set a new water level, if you will, for pricing. And then eventually, in the very near term, it's going to get back to basic fundamentals, like what's going on with base demand and what's going on in supply. And I think the thing that doesn't get enough attention, like thankfully, as you can see in our starts and signings and NUG and our expectations for the future, we get a heck of a lot more than our fair share. But what's really going on in supply, particularly in the U.S. is anemic levels of industry growth that are sub if the 30-year average is 2.5%, it's running like 0.8% and it will be, and it's been running low. And given the environment, it's going to stay low.

價格上漲，好吧，但這只是整個經濟發生的更廣泛的重置，我認為除非出現廣泛的通貨緊縮（感覺不會很快發生），否則這種情況會持續下去。因此，如果你願意的話，你已經為定價設定了一個新的水位。最終，在短期內，它將回到基本面，比如基本需求的變化和供應的變化。我認為那些沒有得到足夠關注的事情，值得慶幸的是，正如你在我們的首發、簽約、NUG 以及我們對未來的期望中看到的那樣，我們得到的比我們應得的要多得多。但供應方面真正發生的情況，尤其是在美國，是行業增長乏力，如果 30 年平均增長率為 2.5%，那麼現在的增長率將是 0.8%，而且會一直很低。考慮到環境，它會保持在較低水平。

And so when you get to a more normalized environment, which is we're sort of morphing slowly into over the next year or 2, you're going to find yourself in an environment where demand should be reasonably healthy if the economy is okay against a historically low supply side environment in the industry. And so I think it's going to feel pretty good and I think it's going to be another factor for sustaining performance and rate integrity.

因此，當你進入一個更加正常化的環境時，也就是我們在未來一兩年內慢慢轉變的環境中，你會發現自己處於一個環境中，如果經濟狀況良好，需求應該相當健康。行業供給側環境處於歷史低位。因此，我認為這會感覺非常好，並且我認為這將成為維持績效和評級完整性的另一個因素。

The next question comes from Duane Pfennigwerth with Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Duane Pfennigwerth。

Can you talk a little bit about the profile of your owners for new development and how that may be changing. With the signings activity you talked about in the second half of last year, first half of this year, any new trends or maybe some surprises you could speak to with respect to the organizations or the individuals that are investing in new development?

您能談談您的業主對新開發項目的了解以及這種情況可能會發生怎樣的變化嗎？通過您去年下半年、今年上半年談到的簽約活動，對於投資新開發的組織或個人，您有什麼新趨勢或可能有一些驚喜嗎？

Yes, Duane, I'd say, look, no surprises really. I mean, I think Chris mentioned in his prepared remarks, I mean, I think half of the Spark owners are new to Hilton, right? And that's not a surprise to us when you're heading into a different segment, you're heading into a different group of owners. And we view that as a positive thing, right? You're filling the top of the funnel with a lot more demand for the product going forward. You're diversifying your own base even further. I mean we've always had a really diversified owner base but we're diversifying it even further and we're responding to -- if you think about Chris said before, when he answered David's question is like evolving the product base to respond to where the demand is, well, the owner base evolves in that same way, too, right? The capital follows the opportunities. And so if we were living in a world not that long ago, where 70% to 80% of our deals every year were with existing owners.

是的，杜安，我想說，看，真的沒有什麼驚喜。我的意思是，我認為克里斯在他準備好的發言中提到，我的意思是，我認為一半的 Spark 業主都是希爾頓的新人，對嗎？當您進入不同的細分市場、進入不同的所有者群體時，這對我們來說並不奇怪。我們認為這是一件積極的事情，對嗎？您正在用對未來產品的更多需求來填充漏斗的頂部。您正在進一步使自己的基礎多樣化。我的意思是，我們一直擁有真正多元化的所有者基礎，但我們正在進一步多元化，我們正在做出回應——如果你想想克里斯之前說過的，當他回答大衛的問題時，就像發展產品基礎來回應需求在哪裡，業主群也會以同樣的方式發展，對吧？資本追隨機遇。因此，如果我們生活在不久前的世界，每年我們 70% 到 80% 的交易都是與現有業主進行的。

We're still doing the same absolute amount of volume with our existing owners. In fact I have to assume -- I don't have the stats in front of me, I have to assume we're doing more business with our existing owners, but then we're actually adding a whole lot more owners around the world. So I think globally, we're down to like 50% or 60% of our deals are with existing owners annually. So no surprises, but we view it as a huge net positive for the business.

我們仍然與現有所有者進行相同的絕對數量的交易。事實上，我必須假設——我面前沒有統計數據，我必須假設我們正在與現有所有者做更多的業務，但我們實際上在世界各地增加了更多的所有者。因此，我認為在全球範圍內，每年我們的交易中，有 50% 或 60% 是與現有所有者進行的。因此，這並不奇怪，但我們認為這對業務來說是一個巨大的淨利好。

Yes. The other minor segment, I think that's well said is on H3. I mentioned in my comments, it's a hybrid and it's probably more apartment than hotel. We've been really excited about the institutional interest that we have from larger institutions that either want to develop or work with a partner and fund the development of large numbers of H3 just because of the cost to build the -- it's we think a 60% kind of margin business, and they really like the segment of demand and its existing profile and growth profile.

是的。另一個小部分，我認為說得很好的是 H3。我在評論中提到，這是一個混合體，它可能更像是公寓而不是酒店。我們對大型機構的興趣感到非常興奮，這些機構要么想要開發，要么想要與合作夥伴合作，並資助大量 H3 的開發，只是因為建造成本 - 我們認為 60 % 的保證金業務，他們非常喜歡該需求領域及其現有概況和增長概況。

So that's been not surprising because we -- when we were developing H3, that was our hope and expectation, but it's nice to see it come to life. I mean, as I said, we're negotiating 300 deals and that's not with 300 different people at this point. We barely opened it up. This is with a relatively limited number of very well-healed more institutional type players. We will ultimately open the floodgates on H3 once we get it going but it's been very nice to see.

所以這並不奇怪，因為當我們開發 H3 時，這是我們的希望和期望，但很高興看到它成為現實。我的意思是，正如我所說，我們正在談判 300 項交易，而且目前還不是與 300 個不同的人進行談判。我們勉強打開了它。這是相對有限的、康復良好的機構型球員而言的。一旦我們啟動了 H3，我們最終將打開 H3 的閘門，但看到這一點真是太好了。

The next question comes from Robin Farley with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的羅賓·法利。

Obviously, great news on the RevPAR outlook. I did have a question circling back to the net unit growth. You mentioned Spark and maybe it sounds like some timing in China that was a little bit pushed out. But when we think about the strong start numbers that you've talked about, can you help us think about timing of interest rates are still moving up a little bit here? And obviously, some of those big increases in starts are due to sort of comping the pandemics, so there's that going on, making the comps look different than normal.

顯然，這是關於 RevPAR 前景的好消息。我確實有一個關於淨單位增長的問題。你提到了 Spark，也許這聽起來像是在中國的某個時機有點被推遲了。但是，當我們考慮您所談到的強勁的開局數據時，您能否幫助我們考慮一下利率仍然略有上升的時機？顯然，開工率大幅增加的一些原因是由於流行病的影響，所以這種情況正在發生，使得比較看起來與正常情況不同。

I guess just trying to think about the timing from here in terms of the factors like what has everything do you think bottomed. It seems like maybe not yet in terms of -- with interest rates still moving up, but help us think about the timing of like rates moving up, starts being high, but -- and kind of where you see things bottoming in terms of that.

我想只是想從現在開始考慮一些因素，比如你認為一切都已經觸底的因素。看來可能還沒有——利率仍在上升，但請幫助我們思考類似利率上升的時間，開始走高，但是——你會看到事情觸底的地方。

Yes. Just for the record, in the signings numbers, then starts signings will be above prior high watermarks pretty materially, and starts will be about -- even though the comps are resi will be about where we were at our prior high watermark. So it's not just the benefit of comps. I'll let Kevin take the next part of it. But I mean, Spark, the beauty of Spark is it's a relatively low-cost entry product and so it doesn't really require a lot of financing.

是的。鄭重聲明一下，在簽約數字中，首發簽約將大大高於之前的高水位線，而首發將是——儘管比較結果將是我們之前高水位線的水平。所以這不僅僅是比較的好處。我會讓凱文承擔下一部分。但我的意思是，Spark，Spark 的優點在於它是一種相對低成本的入門產品，因此它並不需要大量融資。

Yes. Both Spark and H3 are more easily financeable products in this environment. So again, that's not why we launched those brands. We launched those brands because there's a ton of customer and owner and for the product. But if you think about the way it's playing out, it's sort of another example of diversification being a great thing. We have products that are more financeable. I think our lower-end products around the world are more financeable. And then I think I'd couple of things I'd guide you to as well.

是的。在這種環境下，Spark 和 H3 都是更容易融資的產品。再說一遍，這不是我們推出這些品牌的原因。我們推出這些品牌是因為有大量的客戶和所有者以及產品。但如果你考慮一下它的表現方式，你就會發現這是多元化是一件好事的另一個例子。我們有更經濟的產品。我認為我們在世界各地的低端產品更具融資性。然後我想我也會指導你一些事情。

I think when you think about a tighter credit environment because not just rates, it's availability of capital, that's not a -- that's a Western world phenomenon. It's not just U.S., but it is highly concentrated in the U.S. Only 40% of our deliveries this year are going to be in the U.S., right? So it's a big world out there. We've got a lot of diversification. And I think that for all of the reasons we've given you, we think momentum can continue.

我認為，當你想到信貸環境收緊時，不僅是因為利率，還因為資本的可用性，這不是西方世界的現象。不僅僅是美國，而且高度集中在美國。今年我們的交付量只有 40% 是在美國，對吧？所以外面的世界很大。我們有很多多元化。我認為，出於我們向您提供的所有原因，我們認為這種勢頭可以持續下去。

And if you think about mean Chris talked about Bizarro World on fundamentals. It's also Bizarro World a little bit on development because it sort of starts with approvals you got to sign them, you got to get them in the ground and then they deliver, and that's all usually on a lag. And we've had COVID and we've had a bunch of changes but I think if you think about development being on a lag, it has to start somewhere. So the outlook for approvals and starts bodes well for the future.

如果你想到卑鄙的克里斯談到了奇異世界的基本原理。這也是《奇異世界》在開發上的一點點，因為它是從批准開始的，你必須簽署它們，你必須讓它們落地，然後它們交付，而這一切通常都是滯後的。我們經歷了新冠疫情，也發生了很多變化，但我認為，如果你認為發展滯後，它就必須從某個地方開始。因此，批准和啟動的前景預示著未來良好。

The fact that we're rounding out the product base with more easily financeable products bodes well for the future, the fact that we have more limited service and lower-end products to deploy in emerging markets bodes well for the future. And it's not to say there won't be hiccups along the way, but we do believe that it's a progression back to normal, if you will, from here.

事實上，我們正​​在用更容易融資的產品來完善產品基礎，這對未來來說是個好兆頭；事實上，我們在新興市場部署的服務和低端產品更加有限，這對未來來說是個好兆頭。這並不是說一路上不會出現問題，但我們確實相信，如果你願意的話，從現在開始，這是一個回歸正常的過程。

The next question comes from Michael Bellisario with Baird.

下一個問題來自邁克爾·貝利薩里奧和貝爾德。

Wanted to go back to the new credit card deal that Amex announced on Friday. You guys didn't mention it. So maybe hoping you could provide any commentary or incremental fees or economics that you expect to receive? And then maybe what's new or different in this deal versus what you last signed in 2017?

想回到美國運通週五宣布的新信用卡交易。你們都沒提到啊那麼也許希望您能提供您期望收到的任何評論或增量費用或經濟學？那麼，與您上次在 2017 年簽署的協議相比，這筆交易可能有哪些新內容或不同之處？

Yes. I think, look, there's a fair amount of that is competitively sensitive, and we're not going to get into a lot of details, but I can sort of give you a sense for what's new and different. I think, look, the economics are a little bit better, which is as a result of the program just being better. I think our -- if you look at total spend in the program for this year, it's going to be about 2/3 higher than it was in 2019, right? So we're growing the program massively. It's been a hugely successful partnership with American Express.

是的。我認為，看，有相當多的內容是競爭敏感的，我們不會討論很多細節，但我可以讓您了解新的和不同的內容。我認為，看，經濟狀況好一點了，這是由於該計劃變得更好了。我認為，如果你看看今年該計劃的總支出，它會比 2019 年高出約 2/3，對嗎？因此，我們正在大規模發展該計劃。與美國運通的合作非常成功。

We believe that those -- we've said we don't give you a lot of details on package and we apologize for that. But again, it's pretty sensitive competitively. It's been growing ahead of algorithm. We think it will continue to grow at or ahead of algorithm over time. It's a 10-year deal. I think a lot of people would have predicted the last time we did a credit card deal that credit cards were going to go -- somehow go away and be replaced by other forms of payments. I think it's quite the contrary. I think travel co-brand cards have become extremely successful and attractive products. They drive engagement across the system. It's not just about the economics on the card. And I think Amex feels the same way. So we're super excited about the deal and probably will stop short on too many more details than what we've already said.

我們相信，我們已經說過，我們不會向您提供有關包裝的大量詳細信息，對此我們深表歉意。但同樣，它的競爭非常敏感。它的增長一直領先於算法。我們認為隨著時間的推移，它將繼續增長，甚至領先於算法。這是一份為期10年的合同。我認為，上次我們進行信用卡交易時，很多人都會預測信用卡將會消失——以某種方式消失並被其他形式的支付所取代。我認為事實恰恰相反。我認為旅遊聯名卡已經成為非常成功和有吸引力的產品。他們推動整個系統的參與。這不僅僅是卡上的經濟問題。我認為美國運通也有同樣的感覺。因此，我們對這筆交易感到非常興奮，並且可能會停止透露比我們已經說過的更多的細節。

Got it. And then just one follow-up. Any incremental economics included in the increased full year guidance from the credit card deal?

知道了。然後只有一個後續行動。信用卡交易增加的全年指導中是否包含增量經濟效益？

I mean we've been assuming that we've been working on this for a while. So I think there's nothing new on that front. .

我的意思是，我們一直假設我們已經為此努力了一段時間。所以我認為這方面沒有什麼新鮮事。 。

The next question comes from Chad Benyon with Macquarie.

下一個問題來自麥格理的查德·貝尼恩 (Chad Benyon)。

I wanted to ask about the owned portfolio. The performance in the quarter recovered better than M&F fee portfolio, leading to some of the positive variance versus your Q2 midpoint EBITDA guide. Kevin, you noted, I think, strength in Europe and Japan, obviously, where you probably have some of the smaller concentration. But can you kind of help us think if the outlook has changed for this segment as we kind of look into the back half of the year, given how much improvement you saw in the second quarter, does that give you more confidence that you could see some margin improvement and just overall EBITDA growth year-over-year in the back half?

我想問一下所擁有的投資組合。本季度的業績恢復優於 M&F 費用組合，導致與第二季度 EBITDA 中點指南相比出現一些正差異。凱文，我認為你注意到歐洲和日本的實力，顯然，你可能在這些地方有一些較小的集中度。但是，您能否幫助我們思考一下，當我們回顧今年下半年時，考慮到您在第二季度看到的改善程度，該細分市場的前景是否發生了變化，這是否會讓您更有信心看到下半年利潤率有所改善，整體 EBITDA 同比增長？

Yes, no problem. Yes, there's a lot there. First of all, the whole portfolio is concentrated effectively in U.K., Ireland, Europe and Japan, so particularly Central Europe and Japan have been quite strong. There's no real sort of change in -- I mean, a little bit of year-over-year growth for subsidies last year but that's just a little bit of noise. I think basically, there's operating leverage in the business, right? Their own hotels, their leases, right? So there's even more operating leverage than a regular owned hotel.

是沒有問題。是的，那裡有很多東西。首先，整個投資組合主要集中在英國、愛爾蘭、歐洲和日本，因此中歐和日本尤其強勁。我的意思是，去年的補貼同比略有增長，但並沒有真正的變化，但這只是一點噪音。我認為基本上，業務中有運營槓桿，對吧？他們自己的酒店，他們的租約，對嗎？因此，比普通酒店擁有更多的運營槓桿。

So they've been growing at a rate that is quite in excess of the overall fee business. As long as fundamentals stay growing, that will continue to be the case. And I think we -- our outlook for the segment is a little bit better now this quarter than it was last quarter because our outlook for Europe and Japan is better.

因此，他們的增長速度遠遠超過了整個收費業務的增長速度。只要基本面保持增長，情況就會持續下去。我認為我們本季度對該領域的前景比上季度要好一些，因為我們對歐洲和日本的前景更好。

The next question comes from Richard Clarke with Bernstein.

下一個問題來自理查德·克拉克和伯恩斯坦。

Just on the (inaudible) Spark and H3. Are those going to be enough to get U.S. now back up to 5% that for the international business (inaudible). And then maybe just related to that, by giving us some big numbers on where you think Spark can do in the near term. If I go back to when auto was launched now 60 hotels, I think you're 8 to 10, you talked about maybe 20 to 30 having got a Tempo yet, but one coming through, just maybe what's different here versus maybe where -- what those brands achieved in the shorter term?

就在（聽不清）Spark 和 H3 上。這些是否足以讓美國現在的國際業務比例恢復到 5%（聽不清）？然後也許只是與此相關，給我們一些關於您認為 Spark 在短期內可以做什麼的大數據。如果我回到汽車推出時，現在有 60 家酒店，我想你們是 8 到 10 家，你們談到可能有 20 到 30 家擁有 Tempo，但有一家即將推出，也許這裡與其他地方有什麼不同——這些品牌在短期內取得了什麼成就？

Yes. Good question. I think the answer is yes on not just Spark and H3 in the U.S., but Home2 in the U.S., Hampton is growing in the U.S. I'll come back Tempo is just getting started. So I think the combination of all of those brands, the benefit of conversions in soft brands will get us back, I am confident to those levels. The difference between like a Tempo and Motto and Spark is night and day, honestly. I mean here's what happened at Tempo and Motto. We launched them about a day before the pandemic and they are all new build. I mean it's pretty much with both those brands.

是的。好問題。我認為答案是肯定的，不僅是美國的 Spark 和 H3，還有美國的 Home2。Hampton 在美國正在成長。我會回來的。Tempo 才剛剛開始。因此，我認為所有這些品牌的結合，軟品牌轉換的好處將使我們回歸，我對這些水平充滿信心。老實說，Tempo、Motto 和 Spark 之間的區別是白天和黑夜。我的意思是，這就是 Tempo 和 Motto 發生的事情。我們在大流行前一天左右推出了它們，它們都是新建的。我的意思是這兩個品牌都差不多。

There are some adaptive reuse that will go on, but it is a vast majority of those -- our new builds. And so we got into COVID, there was no financing, everything slowed down. Those brands, I think, will do incredibly well. I think Tempo, we have I don't even have the pipeline number in my head. But as we open Times Square, we've got dozens of those under development around the country. We're getting ready to take the show on the road around the world and now that we're in -- even though the environment has some uncertainty in financing and all that, it's a heck of a lot better than it was in COVID.

一些適應性重用將會繼續，但其中絕大多數是我們的新構建。所以我們陷入了新冠疫情，沒有融資，一切都變慢了。我認為這些品牌將會做得非常好。我認為 Tempo，我們有我腦子裡什至沒有管道編號。但當我們開放時代廣場時，我們在全國各地已經有數十個正在開發中的項目。我們正準備在世界各地巡迴演出，現在我們已經所處的環境——儘管融資等方面存在一些不確定性，但比新冠疫情時期要好得多。

So you'll start to see a great trajectory and Tempo, there's nothing wrong. Tempos are great, owners love it. COVID got in the away. Basically same for Motto. Spark is a totally different thing. One, it's not -- we're not COVID. While there are challenges out there, it's 100% conversion brand and it's basically taking hotels that are in much weaker brands and converting them into our system where there's huge opportunities for market share gains and it doesn't cost in terms of the quantum of money to do it, it's a relatively low ticket for owners to do it, that is why we have so much interest.

所以你會開始看到一個很棒的軌跡和節奏，沒有什麼問題。節奏很棒，業主喜歡它。新冠病毒突然襲來。座右銘基本相同。 Spark 是完全不同的東西。第一，我們不是新冠病毒。雖然存在挑戰，但它是 100% 轉換品牌，基本上是將品牌較弱的酒店轉換為我們的系統，在這個系統中，有巨大的市場份額增長機會，而且不需要花費大量資金對於業主來說，這樣做的成本相對較低，這就是我們如此感興趣的原因。

So I think the ramp on that will be much, much faster, and it's a very different thing but I wouldn't diminish the opportunities in Motto and Tempo. They're going to -- particularly Tempo, Mottos, a micro hotel in just the biggest urban markets, we'll do a lot more of them. But I mean, Tempo will be a mega brand. It just got caught up in getting launched a minute before COVID.

所以我認為這方面的進展會快得多，這是一個非常不同的事情，但我不會減少 Motto 和 Tempo 的機會。他們將會——特別是 Tempo、Mottos、一家位於最大城市市場的微型酒店，我們會做更多這樣的事情。但我的意思是，Tempo 將成為一個大品牌。它剛剛在新冠肺炎疫情發生前一分鐘就啟動了。

Yes. I wouldn't connect -- is a shorter way of saying I wouldn't connect too many dots. I mean the world is just different and the brands, as Chris said, are different. And again, the beauty of Spark is you don't have to get a building built to do a Spark. It's all going to be buildings that are already built.

是的。我不會連接——這是一種更簡短的說法，表示我不會連接太多點。我的意思是，正如克里斯所說，世界不同了，品牌也不同了。再說一遍，Spark 的美妙之處在於您不必建造一座建築物來進行 Spark。一切都將是已經建成的建築物。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the call back to Chris Nassetta for any additional or closing remarks.

女士們先生們，我們的問答環節到此結束。我現在想將電話轉回給克里斯·納塞塔，請其發表補充或結束語。

Thank you, MJ. Everybody, we appreciate as we always do, you spending a little bit of your morning with us. We know it's a busy time. And lots of earnings releases. We obviously remain really optimistic. Obviously, Q2 was a great quarter for us. That's flowing through plus some given our expectations for the second half of the year. Again, we're optimistic on our unit growth and optimistic for not just the end of this year, but in the next year, we'll be able to deliver. But most importantly, the algorithm that we've described is alive and well and working and we continue to grow. We continue to maintain incredible cost discipline.

謝謝你，喬丹。各位，我們一如既往地感謝您與我們一起度過了一些早晨。我們知道現在很忙。還有大量的收益發布。我們顯然仍然非常樂觀。顯然，第二季度對我們來說是一個偉大的季度。考慮到我們對下半年的預期，這一數字正在不斷增加。再次，我們對我們的單位增長感到樂觀，不僅對今年年底感到樂觀，而且對明年我們將能夠實現的目標感到樂觀。但最重要的是，我們所描述的算法仍然有效且有效，而且我們還在不斷成長。我們繼續保持令人難以置信的成本紀律。

The company is at the highest margins by 800 basis points that is ever run at, thus producing the greatest amount of free cash flow in our history and we intend to be super disciplined about how we allocate that otherwise known as giving it back to our shareholders. And so in any event, we'll look forward after Q3, giving you an update on how everything is going. I hope everybody has a great rest of the summer.

該公司的利潤率為有史以來最高的 800 個基點，從而產生了我們歷史上最大的自由現金流，我們打算嚴格遵守如何分配現金流，也就是將其返還給我們的股東。因此，無論如何，我們都會在第三季度之後期待，為您提供一切進展情況的最新信息。我希望每個人都能度過一個愉快的暑假。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

會議現已結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開線路。