希爾頓酒店 (HLT) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Hilton Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Jill Slattery, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Development. You may begin.

早上好，歡迎來到希爾頓 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。我現在想把會議轉交給負責投資者關係和企業發展的高級副總裁 Jill Slattery。你可以開始了。

Thank you, Chad. Welcome to Hilton's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. Before we begin, we would like to remind you that our discussions this morning will include forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those indicated in the forward-looking statements, and forward-looking statements made today speak only to our expectations as of today. We undertake no obligation to update or revise these statements. For a discussion of some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ, please see the Risk Factors section of our most recently filed Form 10-K and our first quarter 10-Q.

謝謝你，乍得。歡迎來到希爾頓 2022 年第三季度財報電話會議。在我們開始之前，我們想提醒您，我們今天上午的討論將包括前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中的結果存在重大差異，而今天做出的前瞻性陳述僅代表我們今天的預期。我們不承擔更新或修改這些聲明的義務。有關可能導致實際結果不同的一些因素的討論，請參閱我們最近提交的 10-K 表格和第一季度 10-Q 的風險因素部分。

In addition, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures on this call. You can find reconciliations of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures discussed in today's call in our earnings press release and on our website at ir.hilton.com.

此外，我們將在本次電話會議上提及某些非 GAAP 財務指標。您可以在我們的收益新聞稿和我們的網站 ir.hilton.com 上找到今天電話會議中討論的非 GAAP 與 GAAP 財務指標的調節。

This morning, Chris Nassetta, our President and Chief Executive Officer, will provide an overview of the current operating environment and the company's outlook. Kevin Jacobs, our Chief Financial Officer and President, Global Development, will then review our third quarter results and discuss our expectations for the year. Following their remarks, we'll be happy to take your questions.

今天上午，我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Chris Nassetta 將概述當前的經營環境和公司的前景。我們的首席財務官兼全球發展總裁 Kevin Jacobs 隨後將回顧我們第三季度的業績並討論我們對今年的預期。在他們發言後，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

And with that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Chris.

有了這個，我很高興把電話轉給克里斯。

Thank you, Jill. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us today. The third quarter marked a very important milestone in our continued recovery. For the first time since the pandemic began, system-wide RevPAR surpassed 2019 levels. Additionally, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS exceeded the high end of our guidance and 2019 levels. We achieved several notable development milestones in the quarter, including reaching 100,000 rooms open across Europe. And announced various strategic partnerships, further enhancing the guest experience and the strength of our global system.

謝謝你，吉爾。大家早上好，感謝今天加入我們。第三季度標誌著我們持續復甦的一個非常重要的里程碑。自大流行開始以來，全系統的 RevPAR 首次超過 2019 年的水平。此外，調整後的 EBITDA 和調整後的每股收益超過了我們指導的上限和 2019 年的水平。我們在本季度實現了幾個顯著的發展里程碑，包括在歐洲開設 100,000 間客房。並宣布了各種戰略合作夥伴關係，進一步提升賓客體驗和我們全球系統的實力。

The quarter's strong performance, coupled with our capital-light business model, enabled us to continue returning meaningful capital to shareholders. Year-to-date, we've returned more than $1.3 billion. And for the full year, we're on track to return between $1.5 billion and $1.9 billion to shareholders.

本季度的強勁表現，加上我們的輕資本業務模式，使我們能夠繼續向股東返還有意義的資本。年初至今，我們已返還超過 13 億美元。全年，我們有望向股東回報 15 億至 19 億美元。

Turning to the specific results in the quarter. Occupancy reached more than 73%, only 4 points shy of 2019 levels. As expected, strong travel demand continued through the summer months, primarily driven by robust leisure trends. Post-Labor Day, demand remains strong as business transient and group demand improved significantly, and leisure demand remained robust. Overall demand for the quarter peaked in September, nearly reaching 2019 levels, with business transient demand only 2 points off 2019 levels.

轉向本季度的具體結果。入住率達到 73% 以上，僅比 2019 年水平低 4 個百分點。正如預期的那樣，強勁的旅遊需求在整個夏季持續，主要受強勁的休閒趨勢推動。勞動節過後，需求仍然強勁，因為商務臨時和團體需求顯著改善，休閒需求依然強勁。本季度的總體需求在 9 月達到頂峰，接近 2019 年水平，業務瞬態需求僅比 2019 年水平低 2 個百分點。

ADR also continued to strengthen, improving quarter-over-quarter and up 11% versus 2019. Rates across all segments surpassed 2019 levels with leisure transient rates up in the high teens in both business transient and group up in the mid-single digits. All of this translated into third quarter system-wide RevPAR growth of approximately 30% year-over-year and 5% compared to 2019 levels, with each month surpassing prior peaks.

ADR 也繼續加強，環比改善，比 2019 年增長 11%。所有細分市場的利率都超過了 2019 年的水平，商務瞬態和團體中的休閒瞬態率都達到了中等個位數。所有這些都轉化為第三季度全系統 RevPAR 同比增長約 30%，與 2019 年水平相比增長 5%，每個月都超過之前的峰值。

Leisure transient RevPAR continued to lead the recovery, exceeding 2019 levels by more than 11% for the quarter. Business transient RevPAR reached 2019 levels, with notable acceleration in large corporate business. Our top 20 business accounts are now just 3% shy of 2019 levels, with forward bookings trending above 2019.

休閒短暫的 RevPAR 繼續引領復甦，本季度超過 2019 年水平 11% 以上。業務瞬態 RevPAR 達到 2019 年水平，大型企業業務明顯加速。我們排名前 20 位的企業客戶現在僅比 2019 年水平低 3%，遠期預訂趨勢高於 2019 年。

Small and medium-sized businesses remain ahead of 2019 levels. Group RevPAR reached roughly 93% of prior peak levels for the quarter, with company meetings improving significantly as a percentage of mix. We expect trends to remain strong for the balance of the year with system-wide RevPAR once again surpassing 2019 levels in the fourth quarter. Leisure transient RevPAR is expected to remain meaningfully above prior peaks, driven by solid consumer confidence and a continued eagerness and ability to travel.

中小企業仍然領先於 2019 年的水平。本季度集團 RevPAR 達到之前峰值水平的大約 93%，公司會議在組合中的百分比顯著提高。我們預計今年餘下時間的趨勢將保持強勁，第四季度全系統 RevPAR 將再次超過 2019 年的水平。在穩固的消費者信心以及持續的旅行渴望和能力的推動下，休閒短暫的 RevPAR 預計將顯著高於之前的峰值。

We expect business transient RevPAR to continue to see gradual recovery, primarily driven by rising demand as companies encourage their people to get back on the road.

我們預計業務短暫的 RevPAR 將繼續逐步復甦，這主要是由於公司鼓勵他們的員工重新上路而導致需求上升。

System-wide group position for the fourth quarter is approximately 5% above 2019 levels, accelerating over the last several months, largely due to a robust demand pipeline. Additionally, rates on new bookings are up in the mid- to high teens versus 2019, with group mix continuing to normalize. Company meetings and convention business make up a larger percentage of forward bookings versus the same period in 2019.

第四季度的全系統集團頭寸比 2019 年水平高出約 5%，在過去幾個月中加速增長，這主要是由於強勁的需求管道。此外，與 2019 年相比，新預訂率在中高位有所上升，團體組合繼續正常化。與 2019 年同期相比，公司會議和大會業務佔遠期預訂的比例更大。

As we look ahead, we remain very optimistic about the future of travel. Despite near-term macro headwinds, we're not seeing any signs that fundamentals are weakening. Rising demand, coupled with historically low industry supply growth, should continue to drive strong pricing power. Consumers are shifting back to spending on experiences, international borders are reopening and pent-up demand is being released across all segments.

展望未來，我們對旅行的未來仍然非常樂觀。儘管近期存在宏觀逆風，但我們沒有看到任何基本面正在減弱的跡象。不斷增長的需求，加上處於歷史低位的行業供應增長，應該會繼續推動強大的定價能力。消費者正在重新轉向體驗支出，國際邊界正在重新開放，所有領域被壓抑的需求都在釋放。

Consumers still have an estimated $2.4 trillion of excess savings accumulated during the pandemic, or approximately 55% more in their checking and savings accounts than they did in 2019. Additionally, according to a recent global Hilton study, 85% of business travelers hope to travel as much or more next year. And group position for 2023 is less than 10% shy of 2019 peak levels, with a tentative pipeline up significantly. While the macro environment is more challenging, we are in the midst of a strong rebound with secular tailwinds that should support continued growth.

據估計，在大流行期間，消費者仍有 2.4 萬億美元的超額儲蓄，他們的支票和儲蓄賬戶比 2019 年多了約 55%。此外，根據希爾頓最近的一項全球研究，85% 的商務旅行者希望旅行明年一樣多或更多。 2023 年的集團排名比 2019 年的峰值水平低不到 10%，暫定管道顯著上升。雖然宏觀環境更具挑戰性，但我們正處於強勁反彈之中，長期順風應該會支持持續增長。

Turning to development, we opened 80 properties, totaling nearly 13,000 rooms in the quarter and achieved several important milestones, including reaching 100,000 rooms in Europe, 25,000 Curio rooms globally and 600 Hilton Hotels & Resorts. All of our brands continue growing at a healthy pace given their distinct identities and compelling value propositions for both owners and guests.

在開發方面，我們在本季度開設了 80 家酒店，總計近 13,000 間客房，並實現了幾個重要的里程碑，包括在歐洲達到 100,000 間客房，在全球達到 25,000 間 Curio 客房，以及 600 家希爾頓酒店及度假村。我們所有的品牌都以其獨特的身份和對業主和客人引人注目的價值主張繼續以健康的速度增長。

According to STR, our year-to-date net additions remain higher than all major branded competitors, demonstrating the power of our disciplined development strategy and the strength of our industry-leading RevPAR index premiums. During the quarter, we signed approximately 20,000 rooms, bringing our pipeline to a record 416,000 rooms, half of which are under construction. Signings were boosted by strong RevPAR performance in the U.S., which drove greater owner optimism around the recovery.

根據 STR，我們年初至今的淨增數仍高於所有主要品牌競爭對手，證明了我們嚴格的發展戰略的力量以及我們行業領先的 RevPAR 指數溢價的實力。本季度，我們簽約了大約 20,000 間客房，使我們的在建客房數量達到創紀錄的 416,000 間，其中一半正在建設中。美國強勁的 RevPAR 表現推動了簽約，這推動了業主對經濟復甦的更大樂觀。

While macro factors tempered international signings, we were thrilled to announce 9 landmark agreements to expand our luxury presence across 7 countries in the Asia Pacific region, including the Conrad Singapore, Orchard. We also signed agreements to grow our flagship Hilton brand in Malaysia, Waldorf in Morocco and what will become our first system-wide Tempo property in Times Square.

雖然宏觀因素抑制了國際簽約，但我們很高興地宣布了 9 項具有里程碑意義的協議，以擴大我們在亞太地區 7 個國家的奢侈品業務，包括新加坡烏節康萊德酒店。我們還簽署了協議，以發展我們在馬來西亞的旗艦希爾頓品牌、摩洛哥的華爾道夫酒店以及將成為我們在時代廣場的首家全系統 Tempo 酒店。

Construction starts outperformed expectations in the quarter, largely due to better activity in the U.S. as the cost of materials stabilized and demand for residential construction declined. According to STR, Hilton is the only major hotel company to deliver year-to-date growth in its under-construction pipeline.

本季度建築開工好於預期，這主要是由於材料成本趨於穩定以及住宅建築需求下降，美國的活動有所改善。據 STR 稱，希爾頓是唯一一家在建項目中實現年初至今增長的大型酒店公司。

For the full year, we continue to expect net unit growth of approximately 5%, and we expect mid-single-digit growth for the next couple of years before returning to our historical growth rate of 6% to 7%.

對於全年，我們繼續預計淨單位增長率約為 5%，我們預計未來幾年將實現中個位數增長，然後恢復到 6% 至 7% 的歷史增長率。

With even more exciting destinations to enjoy, we continue strengthening our value proposition for Hilton Honors members. In the quarter, Honors membership grew 19% year-over-year to 146 million, and members accounted for more than 61% of occupancy, up 200 basis points year-over-year and roughly in line with 2019. We also continue to invest in new innovations focused on ensuring we deliver reliable friendly stays that meet guests' evolving needs. An overwhelming 98% of guests in a recent survey said they are prioritizing wellness activities while on the road.

隨著更多令人興奮的目的地享受，我們繼續加強我們對希爾頓榮譽客會會員的價值主張。本季度，榮譽會員同比增長 19% 至 1.46 億，會員入住率超過 61%，同比增長 200 個基點，與 2019 年大致持平。我們還繼續投資在新的創新中專注於確保我們提供可靠友好的住宿，滿足客人不斷變化的需求。在最近的一項調查中，壓倒性的 98% 的客人表示，他們將旅途中的健康活動放在首位。

During the quarter, we announced an industry-first partnership with Peloton to add Peloton bikes in every fitness center across all of our 5,400 U.S. properties by year-end. Our extremely talented team works tirelessly to execute on a great strategy, and we continue to be recognized for our award-winning culture. Hilton was recently named the #1 Best Workplace for Women in the U.S. and the #2 on the World's Best Workplaces by Fortune and Great Place to Work, our seventh consecutive year on the list and the only hospitality company on the list.

在本季度，我們宣布與 Peloton 建立行業首創的合作夥伴關係，以在年底前在我們所有 5,400 家美國酒店的每個健身中心增加 Peloton 自行車。我們才華橫溢的團隊孜孜不倦地執行一項偉大的戰略，我們屢獲殊榮的文化繼續得到認可。希爾頓最近被《財富》雜誌和“最佳工作場所”評為美國女性最佳工作場所第一名和全球最佳工作場所第二名，這是我們連續第七年上榜，也是唯一一家上榜的酒店公司。

As we begin a new golden age of travel, I think we're better positioned than ever. Our brands are performing at their highest levels. We're running our highest margins in our company's history and we're on track to generate our highest levels of free cash flow yet.

隨著我們開始一個新的旅遊黃金時代，我認為我們比以往任何時候都處於更好的位置。我們的品牌正處於最高水平。我們正在實現公司歷史上最高的利潤率，並且我們有望產生迄今為止最高水平的自由現金流。

Now I'll turn the call over to Kevin to give you a bit more details on the quarter and our expectations for the full year.

現在我將電話轉給凱文，向您提供有關本季度的更多詳細信息以及我們對全年的期望。

Thanks, Chris, and good morning, everyone. During the quarter, system-wide RevPAR grew 29.9% versus the prior year on a comparable and currency neutral basis and increased 5% compared to 2019. Growth was driven by continued strength in leisure demand, as well as steady recovery in business transient and group travel.

謝謝，克里斯，大家早上好。在本季度，在可比和貨幣中性的基礎上，全系統 RevPAR 比上一年增長 29.9%，比 2019 年增長 5%。增長的推動因素是休閒需求的持續強勁，以及商務瞬態和團體業務的穩步復甦旅行。

Adjusted EBITDA was $732 million in the quarter, exceeding the high end of our guidance range and up 41% year-over-year. Our performance was driven by better-than-expected fee growth, particularly across the Americas and Europe. Results also benefited from further recovery in our European ownership portfolio.

本季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 7.32 億美元，超過我們指導範圍的上限，同比增長 41%。我們的業績是由好於預期的費用增長推動的，尤其是在美洲和歐洲。業績還得益於我們歐洲所有權組合的進一步復甦。

Management franchise fees grew 33%, driven by continued RevPAR improvement and strong Honors license fees. Good cost control continued to benefit results. For the quarter, diluted earnings per share adjusted for special items was $1.31, exceeding the high end of our guidance range and increasing 68% year-over-year.

受 RevPAR 持續改善和強勁的榮譽許可費推動，管理特許經營費增長了 33%。良好的成本控制繼續有利於業績。本季度，經特殊項目調整後的每股攤薄收益為 1.31 美元，超出了我們指導範圍的上限，同比增長 68%。

Turning to our regional performance. Third quarter comparable U.S. RevPAR grew 22% year-over-year and was up 6% versus 2019. Performance continued to be led by strong leisure demand over the summer travel season, with continued recovery in business transient and group travel further benefiting results.

轉向我們的區域表現。第三季度可比美國 RevPAR 同比增長 22%，比 2019 年增長 6%。業績繼續受到夏季旅遊旺季強勁休閒需求的帶動，商務短暫和團體旅行的持續復甦進一步使業績受益。

Total U.S. business transient reached 2019 levels for the quarter, with U.S. group RevPAR up 7 percentage points quarter-over-quarter to 95% of the 2019 peak levels.

本季度美國業務瞬態總量達到 2019 年水平，美國集團 RevPAR 環比增長 7 個百分點，達到 2019 年峰值水平的 95%。

In the Americas outside the U.S., third quarter RevPAR increased 74% year-over-year and was up 17% versus 2019. Performance was driven by continued strength in leisure demand, particularly across resort properties where ADR was up more than 20%.

在美國以外的美洲地區，第三季度 RevPAR 同比增長 74%，比 2019 年增長 17%。業績受到休閒需求持續強勁的推動，尤其是 ADR 增長超過 20% 的度假酒店。

In Europe, RevPAR grew 92% year-over-year and was up 20% versus 2019. Performance benefited from strong leisure demand and international inbound travel throughout the summer.

在歐洲，RevPAR 同比增長 92%，比 2019 年增長 20%。業績得益於強勁的休閒需求和整個夏季的國際入境旅遊。

In the Middle East and Africa region, RevPAR increased 45% year-over-year and was up 6% versus 2019. The region continued to benefit from strong leisure demand and international inbound travel, particularly from Europe.

在中東和非洲地區，RevPAR 同比增長 45%，比 2019 年增長 6%。該地區繼續受益於強勁的休閒需求和國際入境旅遊，尤其是來自歐洲的入境旅遊。

In the Asia Pacific region, third quarter RevPAR was up 46% year-over-year and down 16% versus 2019. RevPAR in China was down 14% compared to 2019, improving 33 percentage points quarter-over-quarter as leisure demand picked up over the school holidays and COVID lockdowns in Shanghai and Beijing were lifted in July. Travel demand remains volatile in China as a result of strict COVID policies and restrictions to contain new outbreaks.

在亞太地區，第三季度 RevPAR 同比增長 46%，比 2019 年下降 16%。隨著休閒需求回暖，中國的 RevPAR 比 2019 年下降 14%，環比提高 33 個百分點在學校放假期間，上海和北京的 COVID 封鎖已於 7 月解除。由於嚴格的 COVID 政策和限制以遏制新的爆發，中國的旅行需求仍然不穩定。

The rest of the Asia Pacific region saw continued improvement with RevPAR, excluding China, up 10 points quarter-over-quarter, with September RevPAR down just 8% to 2019. We remain optimistic about further recovery across the entire Asia Pacific region as travel restrictions continue to ease and borders reopen to international travel. For example, our recent booking pace in Japan has already started to increase following the recent government stimulus announcement and border openings.

亞太地區其他地區的 RevPAR（不包括中國）環比增長 10 個百分點，與 2019 年相比，9 月份的 RevPAR 僅下降 8%。由於旅行限制，我們對整個亞太地區的進一步復甦持樂觀態度繼續放鬆和邊界重新開放國際旅行。例如，隨著最近政府宣布刺激措施和邊境開放，我們最近在日本的預訂速度已經開始增加。

Turning to development. Our pipeline grew year-over-year and sequentially, totaling nearly 416,000 rooms at the end of the quarter, with nearly 60% of pipeline rooms located outside the U.S. and roughly half under construction. For the full year, we still expect net unit growth of approximately 5% and signings of approximately 100,000 rooms globally with U.S. signings exceeding 2019 levels. Despite the near-term macroeconomic challenges, we remain confident in our ability to deliver net unit growth in the mid-single-digit range for the next couple of years.

轉向發展。我們的在建客房同比和環比增長，截至本季度末共有近 416,000 個客房，其中近 60% 的在建客房位於美國境外，大約一半在建。對於全年，我們仍預計全球單位淨增長約 5%，簽約約 100,000 間客房，其中美國簽約超過 2019 年水平。儘管近期宏觀經濟面臨挑戰，但我們仍然相信我們有能力在未來幾年實現單位數中位數的淨增長。

Moving to guidance. For the fourth quarter, we expect system-wide RevPAR growth to be between 19% and 23% year-over-year or up 2% to 6% compared to fourth quarter 2019. We expect adjusted EBITDA of between $641 million and $671 million and adjusted EPS adjusted for special items -- I'm sorry, diluted EPS adjusted for special items to be between $1.15 and $1.23.

轉向指導。對於第四季度，我們預計全系統 RevPAR 同比增長 19% 至 23%，或與 2019 年第四季度相比增長 2% 至 6%。我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 將在 6.41 億美元至 6.71 億美元之間，針對特殊項目調整後的每股收益——對不起，針對特殊項目調整後的稀釋後每股收益在 1.15 美元到 1.23 美元之間。

For full year 2022, we expect RevPAR growth between 40% and 43%. Relative to 2019, we expect RevPAR to be down 1% to 3%. We forecast adjusted EBITDA of between $2.5 billion and $2.53 billion. Our adjusted EBITDA forecast represents a year-over-year increase of more than 50% at the midpoint and exceeds 2019 adjusted EBITDA by nearly 10%. We forecast diluted EPS adjusted for special items of between $4.46 and $4.54. Please note that our guidance ranges do not incorporate future share repurchases.

對於 2022 年全年，我們預計 RevPAR 將增長 40% 至 43%。相對於 2019 年，我們預計 RevPAR 將下降 1% 至 3%。我們預測調整後的 EBITDA 在 25 億美元至 25.3 億美元之間。我們調整後的 EBITDA 預測代表中點同比增長超過 50%，超過 2019 年調整後的 EBITDA 近 10%。我們預測針對特殊項目調整後的攤薄每股收益在 4.46 美元至 4.54 美元之間。請注意，我們的指導範圍不包括未來的股票回購。

Moving on to capital return. We paid a cash dividend of $0.15 per share during the third quarter for a total of $41 million year-to-date. Our Board also authorized a quarterly dividend of $0.15 per share in the fourth quarter. Year-to-date, we have returned more than $1.3 billion to shareholders in the form of buybacks and dividends.

繼續資本回報。我們在第三季度支付了每股 0.15 美元的現金股息，年初至今總計 4100 萬美元。我們的董事會還批准在第四季度派發每股 0.15 美元的季度股息。年初至今，我們已以回購和分紅的形式向股東返還超過 13 億美元。

For the full year, we expect to return between $1.5 billion and $1.9 billion to shareholders in the form of buybacks and dividends. Further details on our third quarter results can be found in the earnings release we issued earlier this morning.

對於全年，我們預計將以回購和股息的形式向股東返還 15 億至 19 億美元。有關我們第三季度業績的更多詳細信息，請參閱我們今天上午早些時候發布的收益報告。

This completes our prepared remarks. We would now like to open the line for any questions you may have. We would like to speak with as many of you as possible, so we ask that you limit yourself to 1 question. Chad, can we have our first question, please?

這就完成了我們準備好的評論。我們現在想為您可能有的任何問題打開熱線。我們希望與盡可能多的人交談，因此我們要求您將自己限制在 1 個問題內。查德，我們可以問第一個問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from Joe Greff with JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Joe Greff。

I wanted to talk about your corporate negotiated rates. Can you give us some perspective on how important or what percentage of your room nights, pre-pandemic room nights associated with corporate rate negotiations accounted for as a percentage of the total? And then as you think about those negotiations that are ongoing now for next year, do you get the sense that more companies that were traditionally part of the corporate rate negotiations are opting to go to a more dynamic, less contractual rate type of model?

我想談談貴公司的協議費率。您能否給我們一些看法，說明您的房間夜數、大流行前與公司價格談判相關的房間夜數佔總數的百分比有多重要或多少？然後，當您考慮明年正在進行的談判時，您是否感覺到更多傳統上參與公司利率談判的公司正在選擇採用更具活力、更少合同費率的模型？

I'll take it in the order you gave it. Just by way of background, you asked where was it in 2019. It was about 10% of our overall business in 2019. At the moment, it's about 7% of our overall business. And that is largely at this point given the big accounts are coming back by choice because we have chosen to pivot our mix as we've been talking about for the last several quarters, a little bit more heavily towards SMB, small and medium-sized enterprises, simply because they are higher rated and more resilient through ups and downs.

我會按照你給的順序拿走它。僅作為背景，您問它在 2019 年在哪裡。它約占我們 2019 年整體業務的 10%。目前，它約占我們整體業務的 7%。這主要是在這一點上，因為大客戶正在選擇回歸，因為我們選擇了調整我們的組合，正如我們在過去幾個季度一直在談論的那樣，更多地轉向中小企業、中小型企業企業，僅僅是因為它們的評級更高，並且在起起落落中更具彈性。

Having said that, our big corporate customers have been customers of ours a long time, and they're important, but we have weighted that down. I think as they, I mentioned that we were most recently only really about 3% off with our top 20, my guess is that 7% will go up a bit, but our objective is to keep it a bit lower than 2019. We're early in that negotiation season, and what I would say -- what I can say at this point in talking to our teams is the vast majority of those accounts are going to dynamic pricing. That's something that we've been doing over a very long period of time, even pre-COVID. We did have the majority of the accounts dynamic, but we had a decent chunk, I want to say, 25% or 30% pre-COVID. And through the last few years, we've moved very aggressively to get more people dynamic.

話雖如此，我們的大企業客戶長期以來一直是我們的客戶，他們很重要，但我們已經降低了這一點。我認為，就像他們一樣，我提到我們最近與前 20 名相比真的只有大約 3% 的折扣，我的猜測是 7% 會上升一點，但我們的目標是保持它比 2019 年低一點。我們'在那個談判季節的早期，我想說的是——在與我們的團隊交談時，我現在可以說的是，這些客戶中的絕大多數都將採用動態定價。這是我們很長一段時間以來一直在做的事情，甚至是在 COVID 之前。我們確實有大部分賬戶是動態的，但我們有相當一部分，我想說，在 COVID 之前有 25% 或 30%。在過去的幾年裡，我們採取了非常積極的行動來讓更多的人充滿活力。

So at this point, the majority of them are dynamic. And I think that all customers understand because of what they're dealing with in every aspect of their life, that is that, at least at the moment, inflation is a real thing and that their expectation is that they're going to have to pay more. And the best -- it's early days, the best we think at this point is high single-digit, very low double digit sort of in 9% to 10% range is best we can figure at this moment.

所以在這一點上，他們中的大多數是動態的。而且我認為所有客戶都明白，因為他們在生活的各個方面都在處理，那就是，至少在目前，通貨膨脹是真實存在的，他們的期望是他們將不得不付出更多。最好的——現在還很早，我們認為目前最好的是高個位數，非常低的兩位數，在 9% 到 10% 的範圍內是我們目前能想到的最好的。

And the next question is from Shaun Kelley from Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Shaun Kelley。

Chris, historically, the third quarter is kind of when we get a little bit of a taste of kind of a 2023 RevPAR outlook. And I think knowing all of the macro turmoil that's out there, it makes all the sense in the world to not maybe provide something specific. But can you just help us walk us through your thinking here, big picture? You obviously see a lot, speak with a lot of people out there. So based on kind of what you know right now, maybe give us a little bit of directional color. And specifically, what can accelerate further from the trend lines that we're seeing in the third and early fourth quarter? And just how do you see it moving through the year in 2023?

克里斯，從歷史上看，第三季度是我們對 2023 年 RevPAR 前景有所了解的時候。而且我認為了解那裡的所有宏觀動盪，世界上所有的意義都可能不提供具體的東西。但是你能幫我們看看你在這裡的想法嗎？你顯然看到了很多，和很多人交談。所以根據你現在所知道的，也許給我們一點方向性的顏色。具體來說，什麼可以從我們在第三季度和第四季度初看到的趨勢線進一步加速？您如何看待它在 2023 年的發展？

Yes. I think you're right. There's a lot of macro uncertainty. And as a result, it's a little bit early for us to prognosticate on what we think for next year. Not only that, but we're just at the early stages of our budget process, which we'll be going through over the next 60 days or so to complete by year-end. And so it is premature.

是的。我覺得你是對的。有很多宏觀不確定性。因此，我們現在預測明年的想法還為時過早。不僅如此，我們還處於預算流程的早期階段，我們將在接下來的 60 天左右完成預算流程，並在年底前完成。所以現在還為時過早。

Having said that, directionally, I'm happy to comment on sort of how we and I think about it at the moment on a forward-looking basis. What we're obviously looking at, as I said in my prepared comments is, fundamentals that are currently pretty strong. And while, again, we're not naive to what's going on with the Fed here and central banks in other parts of the world, in the sense of trying to tame inflation by slowing economy, we do think we have a reasonably unique setup that is maybe different than some other industries for a period of time that is going to benefit us, not just in the fourth quarter, but into next year.

話雖如此，從方向上講，我很高興在前瞻性的基礎上評論我們和我目前對它的看法。正如我在準備好的評論中所說，我們顯然正在關注的是目前非常強勁的基本面。而且，雖然我們對這裡的美聯儲和世界其他地區的中央銀行正在發生的事情並不天真，但從試圖通過放緩經濟來抑制通貨膨脹的意義上來說，我們確實認為我們有一個相當獨特的設置在一段時間內可能與其他一些行業不同，這將使我們受益，不僅僅是在第四季度，而是到明年。

What are those things? Not to be too redundant because I covered them briefly, the laws of economics are alive and well, supply and demand. Supply is at historically low levels and it's going to stay there for a while, right, just given everything that's going on from COVID and now into the macro concerns. Demand is picking up. As I covered relative to the third quarter, our expectation is that it's going to continue to pick up into the fourth quarter. Why is it picking up? It's picking up because the segments remain strong. I mean, leisure, I covered it.

那些東西是什麼？不要太多餘，因為我簡要地介紹了它們，經濟規律是活生生的，供求關係。供應處於歷史低位，並且會在那裡停留一段時間，對吧，考慮到從 COVID 到現在的宏觀問題所發生的一切。需求正在回升。正如我相對於第三季度的報導，我們的預期是它將繼續回升到第四季度。為什麼它會上升？它正在回升，因為這些細分市場仍然很強勁。我的意思是，休閒，我涵蓋了它。

People still have desire and a lot of disposable income and savings to spend and more flexibility and time. Business transient, there you have a huge amount of pent-up demand that's accrued, as well as in the meetings and events segment, you have the international markets opening up. And you have a broader trend of just the secular shift or maybe cyclical shift back to the more normalized spending patterns of everybody is spending less on things and spending more on experiences. And so that's what we're benefiting from. We obviously got hammered during COVID unlike other industries. But now we're in this recovery. And those -- I sort of describe it here with our team and with our Board is like you have headwinds and tailwinds. The headwinds are the macro. The world is slowing down, right? And it has to and they're going to accomplish their goal.

人們仍然有願望和大量可支配收入和儲蓄可以花，也有更多的靈活性和時間。業務瞬息萬變，你有大量被壓抑的需求，在會議和活動領域，你有國際市場開放。而且你有一個更廣泛的趨勢，即長期轉變或週期性轉變回到更正常化的消費模式，每個人都在事物上花費更少，在體驗上花費更多。這就是我們從中受益的原因。與其他行業不同，我們顯然在 COVID 期間受到重創。但現在我們正處於這種恢復中。那些 - 我在這裡與我們的團隊和我們的董事會一起描述它就像你有逆風和順風。不利因素是宏觀因素。世界正在放緩，對吧？它必須而且他們將實現他們的目標。

But we have tailwinds, okay? We have these tailwinds of like spending more on experiences, international travel, pent-up demand and then just incremental demand associated with people having to run their businesses, gather and meetings and events of all sorts, whether it's social or business. And at the moment, those tailwinds are stronger than the headwinds. And I would say meaningfully stronger, which is why we will continue to recover, we continue to have pricing power. My own belief is, we have enough wind in our sails to go for a while.

但是我們有順風，好嗎？我們有這樣的順風，比如在體驗、國際旅行、被壓抑的需求上花費更多，然後是與人們不得不經營自己的企業、聚會、會議和各種活動相關的增量需求，無論是社交活動還是商業活動。目前，順風比逆風強。我會說有意義地更強，這就是為什麼我們將繼續復甦，我們繼續擁有定價權。我自己的信念是，我們的帆中有足夠的風可以航行一段時間。

Now I don't -- it depends on the macro and like what happens in the economy and how long does it slow for? How much does it slow? I mean, those are things I don't know. I'm not an economist and everybody can judge for themselves. But my view is, for the next few quarters at least, those are pretty powerful tailwinds. And we're talking to customers, we're seeing daily data, we're putting our finger on as many pulses as we can to understand it.

現在我不知道——這取決於宏觀經濟，比如經濟中發生了什麼，它會放緩多久？它慢了多少？我的意思是，那些是我不知道的事情。我不是經濟學家，每個人都可以自己判斷。但我的觀點是，至少在接下來的幾個季度裡，這些都是非常強大的順風。我們正在與客戶交談，我們正在查看每日數據，我們正在盡可能多地關注脈搏以了解它。

So that's a long-winded way of saying, I don't know what the answer is for next year. But my view is RevPAR is definitely going to be up, in my opinion. Year-over-year, it will definitely be over 2019 levels. And what we're going to figure out from now to the end of the year as part of the budget process and watching the macro and watching those tailwinds and headwinds fight each other, how much we think it's going to be up. But our view is that it is definitely going to be up.

所以這是一種冗長的說法，我不知道明年的答案是什麼。但我的觀點是，在我看來，RevPAR 肯定會上升。與去年同期相比，它肯定會超過 2019 年的水平。從現在到年底，我們將在預算過程中弄清楚什麼，觀察宏觀經濟，觀察那些順風和逆風相互鬥爭，我們認為它會上升多少。但我們的觀點是它肯定會上漲。

We did give you some sense quickly on that being in the mid-single digits, so similar to this year and an expectation for next year. So if you listen super carefully, that was in my prepared comments. So we are trying to give a little bit more visibility there because we have obviously more visibility ourselves into sort of those things tracking through pipeline and under construction and delivery schedules.

我們確實很快就讓您了解了中等個位數，與今年非常相似，並且對明年有所期望。所以如果你非常仔細地聽，那是在我準備好的評論中。因此，我們正試圖在那裡提供更多的可見性，因為我們顯然對通過管道、在建和交付時間表進行跟踪的那些事情有了更多的可見性。

The next question is from Carlo Santarelli with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Carlo Santarelli。

Chris, obviously, you guys have gotten back to returning capital much in the way you did prior to the pandemic with buybacks. But since kind of becoming public again, this is the first time where you've operated in an environment where interest rates were something greater than where they've been. So I'm just wondering, as you think about your capital return strategy, you think about your cost of funding, obviously your debt, there isn't a ton that's really rate sensitive and you have some time before you have any bonds due. How does the new interest rate environment kind of factor into your capital plans?

克里斯，很明顯，你們已經像在大流行病之前通過回購所做的那樣回歸資本。但自從再次公開以來，這是你第一次在利率高於以往的環境中運營。所以我只是想知道，當你考慮你的資本回報策略時，你會考慮你的融資成本，顯然是你的債務，沒有很多是真正對利率敏感的，而且你有一段時間才能到期。新的利率環境如何影響您的資本計劃？

Yes. I mean, obviously, it factors into it. I'd say, first of all, background, we're returning more capital than we ever have, historically. And that's because we're producing more free cash flow than we ever have historically. And we intend to continue to do that. We have, from a balance sheet point of view, said we want to be at 3x to 3.5x leverage. We still want to be in that zone. We have said we want to be towards the higher end of that, which would imply incremental borrowing that might increase our buyback. And at some point, there will be a time, I suspect that we want to do that. At this moment with where the capital markets are, we probably are not in a rush to go out and take on more debt to do that.

是的。我的意思是，很明顯，它會影響它。我想說，首先是背景，我們返還的資本比以往任何時候都多。那是因為我們產生的自由現金流比以往任何時候都多。我們打算繼續這樣做。從資產負債表的角度來看，我們曾說過我們希望槓桿率達到 3 至 3.5 倍。我們仍然想留在那個區域。我們已經說過，我們希望達到更高的目標，這意味著增加借貸可能會增加我們的回購。在某個時候，我懷疑我們想要那樣做。此時此刻，在資本市場所在的地方，我們可能並不急於走出去承擔更多的債務來做到這一點。

But at the right time and the right place, there, we might be. And there are obviously other ways of our raising capital in the form of shorter -- our credit facilities and other facilities that we have. But at the moment, we are still of the mind 3x to 3.5x. We're probably, honestly, going to end the year a little bit lower than we might have guessed because of where the capital markets are. But we think those things will stabilize. And again, if there are opportunities that present themselves to do more than we're doing, we'll certainly look to take advantage of those opportunities.

但在正確的時間和正確的地點，我們可能會在那裡。顯然，我們還有其他方式以較短的形式籌集資金——我們的信貸安排和我們擁有的其他安排。但目前，我們的想法仍然是 3 倍到 3.5 倍。老實說，由於資本市場的情況，我們可能會在年底時比我們猜測的要低一些。但我們認為這些情況會穩定下來。再一次，如果有機會比我們做得更多，我們當然會抓住這些機會。

From a balance sheet point of view and maturity, we're in fabulous shape. Kevin, you can add on if you want. But we don't really have any meaningful maturities until '26. We took great advantage, both pre-COVID and then during COVID when the Fed leaned in so hard to be so helpful to those markets to refinance and push out maturities. So we feel really good about the profile of our maturities, which is, we have none for a number of years of any meaning and about what our current rate structure is.

從資產負債表的角度和成熟度來看，我們處於極好的狀態。凱文，如果你願意，你可以補充。但直到 26 年，我們才真正有任何有意義的到期日。我們利用了巨大的優勢，無論是在 COVID 之前還是在 COVID 期間，當美聯儲如此努力地傾斜以幫助這些市場進行再融資和推出到期時。因此，我們對我們的期限概況感覺非常好，也就是說，多年來我們沒有任何意義以及我們目前的利率結構是什麼。

So I've been doing this a long time. These things go up and down. The Fed is doing what they have to do to harness demand. Ultimately, my guess is, if history is any indicator of the future, and they overdo it a little, and at some point in the next couple of years, it will go the other way. And as I said, we have a number of ways to raise debt. The bond markets are one, which we don't honestly really like right now for obvious reasons and wouldn't look to enter those markets at the moment. But we have other forms of credit in the forms of our credit facility and other facilities that are shorter term and as a result, lower cost.

所以我已經做了很長時間了。這些東西上下波動。美聯儲正在做他們必須做的事情來控制需求。最終，我的猜測是，如果歷史是未來的任何指標，而他們有點過頭了，在未來幾年的某個時候，它會走向另一條路。正如我所說，我們有多種籌集債務的方法。債券市場就是其中之一，出於顯而易見的原因，我們現在並不真正喜歡它，目前也不會考慮進入這些市場。但是我們有其他形式的信貸，包括我們的信貸安排和其他期限較短的安排，因此成本較低。

So hopefully, that gives you a sense of it. The answer is yes. But yes and no. I mean, yes, it impacts us, but it doesn't, in any way, change our trajectory of still returning significant -- the most capital that we ever have. And we're going to continue -- we're going to fully plan to continue doing that on the basis that we're going to be producing more free cash flow this year. And by the way, if I'm right on RevPAR and going up, we're going to just produce more free cash flow next year. But that is the -- that gives us the ability to keep returning very large amounts of capital without having to necessarily borrow in a market we don't like.

希望這能讓您有所了解。答案是肯定的。但是是和不是。我的意思是，是的，它影響了我們，但它不會以任何方式改變我們仍然顯著回歸的軌跡——我們擁有的最多資本。我們將繼續 - 我們將在今年將產生更多自由現金流的基礎上全面計劃繼續這樣做。順便說一句，如果我對 RevPAR 的看法是正確的並且在上升，那麼明年我們將產生更多的自由現金流。但這就是 - 這使我們能夠繼續返還大量資本，而不必在我們不喜歡的市場上借錢。

The next question is from Smedes Rose from Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Smedes Rose。

I wanted to ask you a little bit more about what you're seeing in China and maybe kind of what the development pipeline looks like there. And with rooms, I guess, opening just into a very depressed demand, would you expect developers to pull back there? Or kind of how are you thinking that plays out over the next year or so?

我想多問你一些關於你在中國看到的情況，也許還有那裡的開發管道是什麼樣的。我想，對於房間來說，剛好在需求非常低迷的情況下開放，你會期望開發商撤回那裡嗎？或者你認為在接下來的一年左右會發生什麼？

Yes, Smedes, what I would say is, it's sort of similar to -- it's kind of a microcosm of what Chris was saying on the macro. I mean, you've got some headwinds and you've got some tailwinds, right? I mean, you definitely have macroeconomic disruption there that's been well publicized. It's also -- I think we've talked about this in prior quarters, the actual way development gets done on the ground in China is still very much a face-to-face environment, a face-to-face culture. So that's affecting our level of signings at the moment.

是的，斯梅德斯，我想說的是，它有點類似於——它是克里斯在宏觀上所說的話的縮影。我的意思是，你有一些逆風，也有一些順風，對吧？我的意思是，那里肯定有宏觀經濟中斷，這已經廣為人知。這也是——我認為我們在前幾個季度已經討論過這個問題，在中國實地完成開發的實際方式仍然是一種面對面的環境，一種面對面的文化。所以這影響了我們目前的簽約水平。

Interestingly enough, we've had really strong signings over the last couple of years, and so starts are up in China this year, pretty -- in third quarter pretty materially and will be up for the year. Deliveries will be up for the year. And as you know, we're pivoting to more of a limited service strategy in China that's ultimately going to be less sensitive to the macro environment over time.

有趣的是，在過去的幾年裡，我們的簽約非常強勁，所以今年中國的開工率很高，相當不錯——第三季度相當可觀，而且今年也會上升。今年的交貨量將增加。如您所知，我們正在中國轉向更多的有限服務戰略，隨著時間的推移，這種戰略最終將對宏觀環境變得不那麼敏感。

And so that's all sort of a mixed view. And what we would say is developer optimism remains really strong. There's a lot of demand for our brands, particularly Hampton and Home2 that are just getting started and then we're rolling out Hilton Garden Inn franchising. So that's sort of a long way of saying we think the trajectory is up over time in a material way. But in the short term, you do have some choppiness.

所以這是一個混合的觀點。我們要說的是，開發人員的樂觀情緒仍然非常強烈。對我們的品牌有很多需求，尤其是 Hampton 和 Home2 剛剛起步，然後我們正在推出希爾頓花園酒店特許經營權。所以說我們認為軌跡隨著時間的推移以一種物質的方式上升是一種很長的方式。但在短期內，你確實會有一些波動。

The next question comes from David Katz from Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 David Katz。

You've given a ton of fundamental information. I get the puts and takes with all of it. I wonder if you could talk about the non-RevPAR fees to some degree as they become just an important part and how we might expect those to behave in the puts and takes around those, as well as the opportunities to grow them into other areas, et cetera, longer term.

你已經提供了大量的基本信息。我得到了所有的看跌期權。我想知道你是否可以在某種程度上談論非 RevPAR 費用，因為它們只是一個重要的部分，我們如何期望這些費用在看跌期權中表現並圍繞這些費用，以及將它們發展到其他領域的機會，等等，更長期。

Yes, sure. It's a good question. I think we -- you've heard, David, you've heard us say in prior quarters that those fees during COVID, they were less volatile, right? They sort of went down a lot less when the world blew up. And then our expectation was that they'd go up not quite at the pace of other fees, RevPAR-driven fees during recovery. Interestingly enough, in the near term, those fees are actually growing almost at the rate of our overall fee growth, right? So we had very strong -- I mean, our 2 primary ways that we generate fees, of course, are credit card fees, which have been bolstered by one change that we've made to the program. I think the program is as strong as it's ever been. Obviously, consumer spending has been pretty strong. So that fuels the spend and the issuance of points and fuels remuneration.

是的，當然。這是個好問題。我想我們——你聽說過，大衛，你聽說過我們在前幾個季度說過，在 COVID 期間的那些費用，它們的波動性較小，對吧？當世界崩潰時，它們的跌幅要小得多。然後我們的預期是，在恢復期間，它們不會以其他費用、RevPAR 驅動的費用的速度上漲。有趣的是，在短期內，這些費用實際上幾乎以我們整體費用增長的速度增長，對吧？所以我們非常強大——我的意思是，我們產生費用的兩種主要方式當然是信用卡費用，我們對計劃所做的一項改變加強了這種費用。我認為該計劃一如既往地強大。顯然，消費者支出一直相當強勁。因此，這促進了支出和積分的發放，並促進了報酬。

HGV is doing quite well. Their fee growth has been really strong so far this year. They're public, so you can look at their numbers. I don't have to tell you how they're doing. But you should assume that we grow kind of in lockstep with them as they recover and they grow fees. And so over time, I would say they'll continue to be a more meaningful contributor. It's hard to say, in a more normalized RevPAR environment, they probably do grow at or slightly above the level of RevPAR if trends continue, and then we'll be looking for ways to continue to grow those over time.

HGV 做得很好。今年到目前為止，他們的費用增長非常強勁。他們是公開的，所以你可以看看他們的數字。我不必告訴你他們過得怎麼樣。但是你應該假設我們在他們恢復和增加費用的過程中與他們保持同步。所以隨著時間的推移，我會說他們將繼續成為更有意義的貢獻者。很難說，在一個更加規範化的 RevPAR 環境中，如果趨勢繼續下去，它們可能會增長到或略高於 RevPAR 的水平，然後我們將尋找隨著時間的推移繼續增長的方法。

And so we're not going to get into specifics on things that haven't happened. But you should assume that the co-brand credit card product is one that can be taken outside of the primary countries that we're in now. We're getting good growth with our new products in Japan, and we'll be looking to bring that to other countries. HGV just did an acquisition, right? So they're doing quite well. And then we're always thinking about ways we've talked to you guys in the past about how to commercialize our customer base further and how to drive more revenue. So more to come on that, but that's sort of generally the story.

因此，我們不會詳細說明尚未發生的事情。但是你應該假設聯名信用卡產品是一種可以帶到我們現在所在的主要國家之外的產品。我們的新產品在日本取得了良好的增長，我們希望將其推廣到其他國家。 HGV 剛剛進行了一次收購，對吧？所以他們做得很好。然後我們一直在思考我們過去與你們討論過如何進一步將我們的客戶群商業化以及如何增加收入的方式。所以還有更多的事情要做，但這就是一般的故事。

Understood. And I don't want to break the rules, but there was just one. SG&A came down a little bit, and I hope this is helpful to everyone. I was just curious what the driver of the SG&A guide coming in a little bit was and if it's sustainable in '23, and then I'll stop.

明白了。我不想違反規則，但只有一個。 SG&A稍微降下來了，希望對大家有幫助。我只是好奇 SG&A 指南的驅動因素是什麼，如果它在 23 年是可持續的，那麼我會停下來。

Yes, that's okay. We'll let you break the rules a little bit. Look, it's a fair question. I would say, generally, it's a really good story, right? I mean, we continue to do a good job of containing costs where, as you know, we're very disciplined about spending money. There is a little bit of timing stuff in the GAAP numbers, and I know we give you the GAAP, and we think about it more in cash, and it's a little bit unfair. There is a little bit of noise in the GAAP numbers, but it's still a really good story. There's still legit savings on the GAAP side.

是的，沒關係。我們會讓你稍微打破規則。看，這是一個公平的問題。我會說，總的來說，這是一個非常好的故事，對吧？我的意思是，我們繼續在控製成本方面做得很好，正如你所知，我們在花錢方面非常有紀律。 GAAP 數字中有一些時間因素，我知道我們給你的是 GAAP，我們更多地考慮現金，這有點不公平。 GAAP 數據中有一點噪音，但這仍然是一個非常好的故事。 GAAP 方面仍有合理的節省。

And then we think about it more on the cash side, right? What are we actually spending on overhead? And our cash G&A this year for the full year is going to be sort of down in the low to mid-teens relative to 2019. That's not to say there aren't some headwinds in terms of as the business recovers and people move around a little bit more, cost of labor, inflation is a real thing. But we still think that over time, we'll be able to grow our G&A base sort of around the level of inflation going forward. And so you'll see sort of permanent -- that's part of what's driving the margin improvements that Chris was talking about earlier in the call.

然後我們更多地考慮現金方面的問題，對嗎？我們實際上在間接費用上花費了什麼？與 2019 年相比，我們今年全年的現金 G&A 將略有下降。這並不是說在業務復甦和人員流動方面沒有一些不利因素再多一點，勞動力成本，通貨膨脹是真實存在的。但我們仍然認為，隨著時間的推移，我們將能夠在未來的通貨膨脹水平附近擴大我們的 G&A 基礎。所以你會看到某種永久性的——這是克里斯在電話會議早些時候談到的推動利潤率提高的部分原因。

The next question is from Robin Farley from UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Robin Farley。

Great. You're circling back to you having more rooms under construction than you did a quarter ago. I know you talked a bit about China and that starts are up there. Can you talk about what's going on with U.S. rooms under construction? And it's just what we hear from others is that it's been so much more challenging to get developers to put shovels in the ground, right outside of the signings, actually putting the shovel in the ground. And so is what you saw here in Q3 an anomaly in terms of having more rooms under construction sequentially? Or is that something that you think you'll continue to see?

偉大的。與一個季度前相比，您正在盤旋回到正在建設中的房間。我知道你談到了一些關於中國的事情，那裡已經開始了。能談談美國在建房間的情況嗎？我們從其他人那裡聽到的是，讓開發商在簽約之外把鏟子放在地上，實際上是把鏟子放在地上，這要困難得多。那麼，您在第 3 季度看到的按順序有更多房間在建的情況是否異常？還是您認為您會繼續看到這種情況？

Well, we certainly hope we continue to see it. I mean, it is definitely an inflection point in the third quarter, which we think continues into the fourth quarter. While it's certainly relative to normal times, if there is such a thing, it's more difficult in terms of cost to build financing availability. The other thing that's happened is the recovery has been much, much steeper than anybody thought. And obviously, unlike any other recovery period, rate strength has way outperformed what anybody had thought. And when you look at it, you could look at the majority of our system, which we do, the majority of our system, the hotels are generating greater profitability than they ever have, greater than '19, which was the prior high watermark.

好吧，我們當然希望我們繼續看到它。我的意思是，這絕對是第三季度的一個拐點，我們認為這將持續到第四季度。雖然這肯定是相對於正常時期而言的，但如果有這樣的事情，就建立融資可用性的成本而言就更加困難了。發生的另一件事是複蘇比任何人想像的都要陡峭得多。顯然，與任何其他復蘇期不同的是，利率強度的表現遠遠超出了任何人的想像。當你看它的時候，你可以看看我們系統的大部分，我們所做的，我們系統的大部分，酒店正在產生比以往任何時候都更高的盈利能力，大於 19 年，這是之前的高水位線。

So what is that -- what is happening that is then fueling optimism? We'll talk about the U.S. because you asked about the U.S., it's fueling optimism in people wanting to do more deals. This is -- we have a very diversified owner base. It's mostly small and medium businesses. This is what they do. It isn't a part of what they do. It's 100% for the most part of what they do, and they like what they see and they're making gobs of money in most of their hotels. And they want to do more of it and they want to lock up the best brands to pat us on the back. We have the highest-performing brands in the business, the highest market share across on average and across each of the segments.

那麼那是什麼 - 正在發生的事情正在激發樂觀情緒？我們將談論美國，因為您詢問了美國，它激發了希望進行更多交易的人們的樂觀情緒。這是 - 我們擁有非常多元化的所有者基礎。它主要是中小型企業。這就是他們所做的。這不是他們所做工作的一部分。他們所做的大部分事情都是 100% 的，他們喜歡他們所看到的，並且他們在他們的大部分酒店中都在賺大錢。他們想做更多，他們想鎖定最好的品牌來拍我們的背。我們擁有業內表現最好的品牌，平均和每個細分市場的市場份額最高。

And so we, I think, are disproportionately benefiting from that. And how it's showing up is, as Kevin, I think, mentioned in his prepared comments, we're going to be over '19 levels on signings this year in the U.S. And that -- and a percentage of those are translating into starts. And that's why we have seen the uptick in starts starting in the third quarter that we think is going to continue in the fourth quarter.

因此，我認為，我們從中受益匪淺。它的表現是，正如凱文，我認為，在他準備好的評論中提到的，我們今年在美國的簽約數量將超過 19 個水平，而且其中的一部分正在轉化為首發。這就是為什麼我們看到從第三季度開始的開工率上升，我們認為這將在第四季度繼續。

Now there's a lot of uncertainty. I don't -- like how many different ways we can say it, and everybody is asking the question says it. So there's a lot of uncertainty out in the future, but we are seeing an inflection point. And we are certainly expect that to continue and are hopeful it continues for an extended period of time. While input costs are higher, the reality is those things are starting to stabilize a little bit. And you've seen other forms of construction drop off, which have provided more availability of subcontractors.

現在有很多不確定性。我不——我們可以用多少種不同的方式來表達，而每個人都在問這個問題。所以未來有很多不確定性，但我們看到了一個拐點。我們當然希望這種情況會繼續下去，並希望它能持續很長一段時間。雖然投入成本更高，但現實情況是這些事情開始穩定下來。而且您已經看到其他形式的建築在減少，這提供了更多的分包商。

And while the big banks are still -- it's still challenging from a lending point of view, our ownership community broadly is getting financed in local and regional banks, and they've still with the strongest relationships, been willing to finance. Now they're putting more equity up, they're providing, in many cases, full recourse and rates are higher. But I think their view is rates are higher for a period of time. These are short-term financings that ultimately, when assets stabilize, will be in a different environment and longer they can convert to longer-term financing that's more reasonable.

雖然大銀行仍然 - 從貸款的角度來看仍然具有挑戰性，但我們的所有權社區廣泛地在當地和區域銀行獲得融資，而且他們仍然擁有最牢固的關係，願意融資。現在他們增加了股權，在許多情況下，他們提供了完全的追索權和更高的利率。但我認為他們的觀點是利率在一段時間內較高。這些是短期融資，最終，當資產穩定時，它們將處於不同的環境中，並且可以轉換為更合理的長期融資。

So while it is clearly net-net harder, there are a lot of reasons. As I say, if you just look at the behavior of our broader owner community, they're signing more deals, and we've hit an inflection point on starts. And we like seeing that. And we think our performance and market share and all of those things are meaningful contributors to it. And we'll keep you up to speed as we watch those tailwinds and headwinds in a macro environment to see if that changes. But we were -- we've been very pleased with that momentum.

因此，雖然它顯然更難，但有很多原因。正如我所說，如果你只看我們更廣泛的所有者社區的行為，他們會簽署更多的交易，而且我們已經達到了開始的拐點。我們喜歡看到這一點。我們認為我們的業績和市場份額以及所有這些都是有意義的貢獻者。當我們在宏觀環境中觀察順風和逆風以查看情況是否發生變化時，我們會讓您跟上速度。但我們 - 我們對這種勢頭感到非常滿意。

And just for my follow-up question, if I could ask about group. You mentioned your position for '23 is 5% ahead of '19. And I think that's a total revenue position. And just given how much disruption there's been that groups that were not necessarily booking as far out because of the disruption from the pandemic, it seems like, I'm just thinking about the impact on your RevPAR for next year, that the benefit to you is that if they're booking closer in, you're going to be able to get these sort of current rates as opposed to like historically group, you're stuck with whatever rates you agreed to 2 years ago. Can you give us a sense of maybe how much the volume is down? Like thinking about like the incremental price that you may get on. I don't know how significant that volume delta between now and what you had in '19 was.

就我的後續問題而言，我是否可以詢問有關小組的問題。你提到你在 23 年的職位比 19 年高 5%。我認為這是一個總收入職位。考慮到由於大流行病的影響而不一定預訂得那麼遠的團體受到了多大的干擾，看來，我只是在考慮明年對您的 RevPAR 的影響，這對您有好處是，如果他們在更近的地方預訂，您將能夠獲得這些當前費率，而不是像歷史上的團體那樣，您只能使用 2 年前同意的任何費率。你能告訴我們音量下降了多少嗎？就像考慮您可能獲得的增量價格一樣。我不知道從現在到 19 年的交易量增量有多大。

Let me sync up on stats because I think maybe I misheard you or you misstated what I said when I gave group stats. So we're 5% up in the fourth quarter. By the way, if you go back a couple of quarters ago, we were not. We were 5% or 10% down. So again, the business has been picking up at a very rapid pace but is relatively short lead. We are 9% or 10% off in group position system-wide for 2023, not ahead. But alternatives and pipeline are literally off the charts.

讓我同步統計數據，因為我想也許我聽錯了你或者你在我給出小組統計數據時誤解了我說的話。所以我們在第四季度增長了 5%。順便說一句，如果你回到幾個季度前，我們就不是了。我們下跌了 5% 或 10%。同樣，該業務一直在以非常快的速度回升，但領先速度相對較短。到 2023 年，我們在全系統範圍內的集團職位將下降 9% 或 10%，而不是提前。但替代品和管道確實超出了圖表。

I mean, when we sit here and talk to our sales teams, across the world, the biggest issue is just having enough people to keep up with all the demand. There's a massive amount of demand, and it is short lead demand. So when we look into next year, just given the experience we've been having, it makes us feel very, very good about being able to fill in that group base and ultimately get group back, which was at 93% in the third quarter. We think it will be, from a revenue point of view, roughly at par in the fourth quarter. And we think given this trajectory, it will be above '19 high watermarks next year. That's another contributor like leisure, which we think will stay strong, and business transient, which we think is picking up steam and will stay strong, to why we think next year will be a reasonably to very good positive year.

我的意思是，當我們坐在這裡與世界各地的銷售團隊交談時，最大的問題是有足夠的人來滿足所有需求。需求量很大，而且是鉛需求短缺。因此，當我們展望明年時，鑑於我們一直以來的經驗，這讓我們感到非常非常高興能夠填補該小組基礎並最終讓小組回歸，第三季度為 93% .我們認為，從收入的角度來看，第四季度將大致持平。我們認為，鑑於這一軌跡，明年它將高於 19 年的高水位線。這是另一個貢獻者，比如休閒，我們認為它會保持強勁，而商業短暫性，我們認為它正在加速發展並將保持強勁，這就是為什麼我們認為明年將是一個合理到非常好的積極年份。

In terms of rates, that is a good thing in the sense that we do, I think, have a reason if all these segments stay stable to strong. We have an ability to maintain pricing power that I think is, again, just back to the fundamentals of the business, that I think is reasonably good. And we've been booking new business at much higher rates. You're right, existing business is booked at less high rates, although still reasonable rates. Most of those are equal to or greater than 2019 rates.

就利率而言，從某種意義上說，這是一件好事，我認為，如果所有這些細分市場都保持穩定到強勁，這是有原因的。我們有能力維持定價權，我認為這再次回到業務的基本面，我認為這是相當好的。我們一直在以更高的價格預訂新業務。你是對的，現有業務的預訂率較低，但仍然合理。其中大部分等於或高於 2019 年的利率。

And at this point, the majority of our bookings for all of next year, I would say, are still to be booked. We're probably roughly half of our bookings, maybe plus or minus, are on the books at this point in the year. And everything that's going on between now and the end of the year, we will go into next year higher than that, in my opinion, given the demand. But all of those bookings will be at the higher rate structure. So we think there's both the opportunity for the demand to get back and then exceed base demand levels of '19 and to do it at a higher rate, which, for that segment, will contribute meaningfully to RevPAR growth.

在這一點上，我想說的是，我們明年全年的大部分預訂仍有待預訂。在這一年的這個時候，我們可能大約有一半的預訂，可能是正數，也可能是負數。從現在到今年年底之間發生的一切，在我看來，考慮到需求，我們將進入明年更高的水平。但所有這些預訂都將採用更高的費率結構。因此，我們認為需求有機會恢復並超過 19 年的基本需求水平，並以更高的速度實現這一目標，對於該細分市場，這將對 RevPAR 增長做出有意義的貢獻。

Just to sync back to what it normally was, our system-wide group was about 20% of our business in '19. Rate now, it's about 16%, 17%. So we think next year will normalize and be pretty close to, if not, at historical levels of demand from a segmentation point of view.

為了同步回正常狀態，我們全系統的團隊在 19 年約占我們業務的 20%。現在率，大約是16%、17%。因此，我們認為從細分的角度來看，明年需求將正常化並且非常接近（如果不是）歷史需求水平。

The next question is from Chad Beynon with Macquarie.

下一個問題來自 Chad Beynon 和 Macquarie。

Kevin, you mentioned that one of the areas of the Q3 b came from the better European ownership segment, which is probably benefiting from a stronger U.S. dollar and just kind of overall recovery. Can you talk about how you're thinking about this segment, the margins around that maybe in the fourth quarter and beyond? I know at the beginning of the year, there was probably a little bit more pessimism. And I'd say in the last 2 quarters, this has probably come in ahead of expectations and push numbers higher. Just trying to level set on that.

凱文，你提到 Q3 b 的一個領域來自更好的歐洲所有權部分，這可能受益於美元走強和整體復甦。你能談談你是如何看待這個細分市場的，可能在第四季度及以後的利潤率嗎？我知道在年初，可能會有更多的悲觀情緒。我要說的是，在過去的兩個季度中，這可能超出了預期並推高了數字。只是想在此基礎上保持水平。

Yes, sure. I think, yes, that's completely fair, right? I mean, I think that Europe has continued to despite what -- if you -- the rhetoric over there and what they're bracing for in the winter and things like that. We talk about all the time around here, the operating results have continued to sort of defy gravity. And you heard the results that I've said in my prepared remarks, which are sort of, its growth in excess, both obviously on an absolute basis because of how far it fell, but relative to 2019 in excess of the other regions of the world. That clearly has translated through to our real estate portfolio or at least the part of it that is concentrated in that part of the world, the U.K. and Central Europe.

是的，當然。我認為，是的，這完全公平，對吧？我的意思是，我認為歐洲一直在繼續，儘管 - 如果你 - 那裡的言論以及他們在冬天所做的準備以及諸如此類的事情。我們一直在談論這裡，經營業績繼續在某種程度上克服重力。你聽到了我在準備好的發言中所說的結果，有點像，它的增長過度，顯然是在絕對基礎上，因為它下降了多少，但相對於 2019 年超過了其他地區世界。這顯然已經轉化為我們的房地產投資組合，或者至少是其中集中在世界那個地區、英國和中歐的部分。

I'd say for the fourth quarter, similar to what we've said about the macro, we don't see any reason to believe that, that sort of won't continue. And then you probably, in that part of the world, have some headwinds next year, right? I mean, you think about the inflation that they've got going on, that affects labor, that affects, sorry, energy costs and utilities and things like that. Although, if the fundamental environment holds up, we should do just fine.

我想說的是第四季度，就像我們對宏觀經濟所說的那樣，我們沒有任何理由相信這種情況不會持續下去。然後你可能，在世界的那個地方，明年會遇到一些逆風，對吧？我的意思是，你想想他們正在發生的通貨膨脹，影響勞動力，影響能源成本和公用事業等等。不過，如果基本面環境穩定，我們應該做得很好。

And then Japan, where we have a couple of large leases, again, they just opened the country up, demand is starting to pour in, and that's a part of the portfolio that could be a headwind. And so I'd say to sort of wrap it all up, on a run rate basis, we're about sort of 3 quarters of the way back to 2019 levels. So we don't see any reason why that portfolio doesn't continue to recover to where it was, which should continue to enhance our growth rate broadly overall.

然後是日本，我們在那裡有幾個大的租約，他們剛剛開放了這個國家，需求開始湧入，這是投資組合的一部分，可能是不利因素。因此，我想總結一下，在運行率的基礎上，我們大約有 3 個季度回到 2019 年的水平。因此，我們看不出有任何理由說明該投資組合不能繼續恢復到原來的水平，這應該會繼續總體上提高我們的增長率。

And I think it's always worth mentioning that, that, keep in mind, that the rest of the business, the fee business is growing at a nice clip, and that portfolio continues to get smaller over time because of the work we've done there. So we exited 7 leases last year. We'll exit another 2 or 3 of them this year. I think 2 or 3 a year is probably the right way to think about it. And that business will be -- you wake up a few years from now, that will be 5% or less of the overall business.

而且我認為總是值得一提的是，請記住，其餘業務，收費業務正在快速增長，並且由於我們在那裡所做的工作，該業務組合隨著時間的推移繼續變小.所以我們去年退出了 7 個租約。今年我們將退出另外 2 或 3 個。我認為每年 2 或 3 次可能是正確的思考方式。而這項業務將是——幾年後你會發現，這將佔整體業務的 5% 或更少。

The next question is from Patrick Scholes from Truist Securities.

下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Patrick Scholes。

I wonder if we can talk a little bit more about the group pace. If I got my numbers correct, you said next year down roughly 9% to 10%, and then you said for 4Q, up 5%. I wonder since you reported in the end of July, how has the pace been going for those 2 different periods? It certainly sounds like 4Q was up, but what was the comparable pace for next year when you last reported...

我想知道我們是否可以多談談小組步伐。如果我的數字是正確的，你說明年大約下降 9% 到 10%，然後你說第四季度上升 5%。我想知道自從您在 7 月底報告以來，這兩個不同時期的進展情況如何？這聽起來確實像是第四季度上升了，但你上次報告時明年的可比速度是多少……

That I remember, they both moved about 500 basis points in the quarter.

我記得，他們在本季度都移動了大約 500 個基點。

Up? Correct.

向上？正確的。

Up. Better. Better.

向上。更好的。更好的。

Okay. And then do you have any -- I know it's early, but any indications on sort of the longer -- how are corporations feeling about '24, '25 at this point? I guess, it's fair to assume that they are probably a lot more cautious than they would be to book a holiday party at this point.

好的。然後你有什麼——我知道現在還早，但有任何跡象表明時間更長——此時公司對'24、'25感覺如何？我想，可以公平地假設他們此時可能比預訂假日派對要謹慎得多。

Yes. I mean, that's not -- the business that gets booked that far out is typically the mega size groups. The association groups and other trade groups, and not so much -- I mean, corporations don't -- they don't book their small meetings or their social events. That's relatively short cycle.

是的。我的意思是，那不是——被預訂得那麼遠的企業通常是大型團體。協會團體和其他貿易團體，並沒有那麼多——我的意思是，公司沒有——他們不預訂他們的小型會議或社交活動。那是相對較短的周期。

So, but when you look at the big -- I think I mentioned -- I know I mentioned in my prepared comments, what we're seeing in terms of the mix on a forward-looking basis in bookings on the group side is looking a lot like the mix from pre-COVID, which by definition means we're getting a much bigger mix of the very large meetings and events that are getting booked. It's not surprising. It took some time to get there. And to get the revenue consumed, we'll take more time because these are huge multi-thousand person events, many of them citywide. They just take a long time to plan and implement. But that is definitely starting to happen as you talk to convention, visitor, CVBs around the country, that is starting to happen.

所以，但是當你看大的時候——我想我提到過——我知道我在準備好的評論中提到過，我們在前瞻性基礎上看到的團體方面的預訂組合正在尋找很像 COVID 之前的組合，根據定義，這意味著我們正在預訂的非常大的會議和活動中得到了更大的組合。這並不奇怪。到達那里花了一些時間。為了獲得收入，我們需要更多時間，因為這些是大型的數千人活動，其中許多是全市性的。他們只是需要很長時間來計劃和實施。但當你與全國各地的會議、訪客、CVB 交談時，這肯定會開始發生，這正在開始發生。

And it makes sense. Notwithstanding the macro concerns out there, a lot of these groups have to meet to survive. I mean, these are events that it's not just networking, these are revenue raising events that allow these trade groups and associations to be alive. And so they can only go so long in not doing these. And the reason they weren't doing them before was -- and by the way, they're generally very resilient in economic ups and downs, the big mega groups that book multiyears out, because there's too much planning and money involved.

這是有道理的。儘管存在宏觀問題，但許多此類團體必須開會才能生存。我的意思是，這些活動不僅僅是網絡活動，這些活動是增加收入的活動，讓這些貿易團體和協會得以存在。因此，他們只能在很長時間內不這樣做。他們之前沒有這樣做的原因是——順便說一句，他們通常在經濟起伏中非常有彈性，大型集團會提前多年預訂，因為涉及的計劃和資金太多。

The reason that they, uniquely during COVID were impacted was health. Like nobody -- if you're having an event that nobody shows up, well then, we'll pay the registration fee and then you have a big expense of putting on the event, you not only don't make money, you can lose a lot of money. But now that we're sort of like -- I don't want to be the guy that declares that COVID is sort of over in the sense that it's not gone and there's variants, people aren't making decisions in terms of their behavior, both personally and professionally. And in meetings and events that are factoring for that, I think all of these groups now view it as it's a safe time from a health point of view to do it and they need to do it. And so they're very deep into the booking and planning processes. And so it sort of makes sense.

他們在 COVID 期間唯一受到影響的原因是健康。就像沒有人一樣——如果你有一個沒有人出現的活動，那麼，我們會支付註冊費，然後你要花一大筆錢來舉辦活動，你不僅不賺錢，你可以損失很多錢。但現在我們有點像——我不想成為宣布 COVID 有點結束的人，因為它沒有消失，而且有變體，人們沒有根據他們的行為做出決定，無論是個人還是專業。在考慮到這一點的會議和活動中，我認為所有這些團體現在都認為從健康的角度來看，現在是安全的時間，他們需要這樣做。因此，他們非常深入地了解預訂和規劃流程。所以這是有道理的。

The unique thing was the health issue this time, which we had to sort of get through. But I think at this point, notwithstanding things going on in COVID, I mean, just go into the airports, go into any one of our big hotels or anywhere else, and you can see that when these events are happening, they're very normal. It looks just like it did before.

這次的獨特之處在於健康問題，我們必須克服它。但我認為在這一點上，儘管 COVID 發生了一些事情，我的意思是，只要進入機場，進入我們的任何一家大酒店或其他任何地方，你就會看到當這些事件發生時，它們非常普通的。它看起來就像以前一樣。

The next question comes from Duane Pfennigwerth from Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Duane Pfennigwerth。

Maybe switch gears a little bit. I wanted to ask you about revenue management systems. One of the things we've heard from operators recently is a preference for Hilton RM systems and the concept of pricing floors in those systems moving up. Can you speak to the investment you've made around RM? What do you think your special sauce is there and how you might be viewing pricing floors and institutionalizing those pricing floors differently than you have in the past?

也許稍微換檔。我想問你關於收入管理系統的問題。我們最近從運營商那裡聽到的其中一件事是對希爾頓 RM 系統的偏好以及這些系統中定價底線的概念。你能談談你圍繞 RM 所做的投資嗎？你認為你的特殊調味料是什麼？你可能如何看待定價底線並將這些定價底線製度化為與過去不同的方式？

I'll let Kevin answer. But competitively, we're probably not going to give you quite a detailed answer that you want.

我會讓凱文回答。但在競爭中，我們可能不會為您提供您想要的非常詳細的答案。

Yes, I was going to say that. But yes, we probably won't get into the way the algorithms work or any -- I don't even know, I can't even bring myself to say that word out loud. But look, I'd say we have a long history of being really good at revenue management. And it is part of our special sauce. We say all the time, you can't really unpack all of the different things that we do commercially and say it's that -- that one thing is x basis points of RevPAR index premium, right? It all goes into the premiums that we drive.

是的，我正要這麼說。但是，是的，我們可能不會討論算法的工作方式或任何——我什至不知道，我什至無法讓自己大聲說出這個詞。但是，我想說的是，我們在收益管理方面有著悠久的歷史。它是我們特製醬汁的一部分。我們一直在說，你不能真正拆開我們在商業上做的所有不同的事情，然後說——那是 RevPAR 指數溢價的 x 個基點，對吧？這一切都進入了我們推動的保費。

But I would say we, in our history, we have a vendor that we work with. We co-created the algorithm with them. We work with -- they've been an amazing partner. We work really hard with them. And we think we're really good at it. We've created the concept of the consolidated center. We drive more of our owners that sign up to be in these consolidated centers where we help them. We don't set pricing for the vast majority of our system, right, because 75% of it's franchise, then it's ultimately up to the franchisees to set the pricing. But we can advise them on how we do it, and we're really good at it, and it's part of our special sauce, and I'll probably just leave it at that. I don't know.

但我要說的是，在我們的歷史中，我們有一家合作的供應商。我們與他們共同創建了算法。我們與 - 他們一直是一個了不起的合作夥伴。我們與他們一起努力工作。我們認為我們真的很擅長。我們已經創建了合併中心的概念。我們推動更多的業主註冊加入我們幫助他們的這些綜合中心。我們沒有為我們系統的絕大多數定價，對吧，因為它的 75% 是特許經營權，那麼最終由特許經營商來設定定價。但我們可以就我們的做法向他們提出建議，我們真的很擅長，這是我們特殊調味料的一部分，我可能就此打住。我不知道。

And we know, I would say that's right. And we don't stop. I mean, it's not a system. In the old days, these systems were like, you built a new system and then you let it run for a long time. We're -- these algorithms are being tweaked constantly to add incremental data fields that used to be in revenue management in our world. It was really just like data related to the hotel now. We have data sets because the world is awash in data that are contributing to the decision-making in these algorithms and just make it smarter.

我們知道，我會說這是對的。我們不會停止。我的意思是，它不是一個系統。在過去，這些系統就像是，你構建了一個新系統，然後讓它運行了很長時間。我們 - 這些算法正在不斷調整以添加增量數據字段，這些字段曾經在我們的世界中用於收入管理。真的就像現在酒店相關的數據一樣。我們擁有數據集，因為世界上充斥著數據，這些數據有助於這些算法的決策制定，並使其變得更智能。

During COVID and the aftermath of COVID, one of the big things has not been less about floors and more about ceilings. And so I think we've been very thoughtful about that as well. So yes, it's part of our -- one of the many things that we think we -- our commercial teams are second to none in the industry, not just in revenue management. But in every other regard, this is one area that we think we do a really good job.

在 COVID 期間和 COVID 的後果中，一件大事與地板有關，而與天花板有關。所以我認為我們對此也考慮得很周到。所以是的，這是我們的一部分——我們認為我們的許多事情之一——我們的商業團隊在行業中首屈一指，而不僅僅是在收入管理方面。但在其他方面，這是我們認為我們做得非常好的一個領域。

Next question is from Stephen Grambling from Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Stephen Grambling。

This is a bit of a follow-up on the last topic and on pricing power broadly. Prior to the pandemic, there were regular questions, it seemed on why rate was so hard to push even as occupancies were near peak. Given there seems to be very little pricing pushback now, how would you frame what has changed cyclically versus structurally? Do you consider the changes in consumer behavior, distribution, yield management as you were describing or other factors?

這是對最後一個主題和廣泛的定價權的跟進。在大流行之前，經常會有問題，似乎是為什麼即使入住率接近高峰，房價也很難提高。鑑於現在似乎幾乎沒有定價阻力，您如何界定週期性變化與結構性變化？您是否考慮了您所描述的消費者行為、分配、收益管理或其他因素的變化？

Stephen, good to have you on the call. I mean, not to be pedantic about it, but maybe I'll sound that way. It's just the laws of economics. I mean, I don't know how many times I got asked in the lead up to the pandemic. Why can't you get rate pressure? I'm not going to accuse you of it, but probably got asked a thousand times by you and everybody else. And my comment there is just there was no compression. You were in an environment where, while supply wasn't high, it was over 30-year averages. And more importantly, demand was low because you were in this very low growth environment where GDP was vacillating between like 0% and 2%. And you put those -- you were at equilibrium. I mean, supply and demand, or maybe even a little bit at an equilibrium in the wrong way, and that doesn't give you pricing power.

斯蒂芬，很高興你接聽電話。我的意思是，不要對此迂腐，但也許我聽起來會那樣。這只是經濟規律。我的意思是，我不知道在大流行之前我被問過多少次。為什麼你不能得到利率壓力？我不會為此指責你，但你和其他人可能已經問過一千次了。我的評論是沒有壓縮。您所處的環境雖然供應量不高，但超過 30 年的平均值。更重要的是，需求很低，因為你處於這個非常低的增長環境中，GDP 在 0% 和 2% 之間搖擺不定。你把那些 - 你處於平衡狀態。我的意思是，供求關係，或者甚至可能以錯誤的方式處於平衡狀態，這不會給你定價權。

And no inflation.

而且沒有通貨膨脹。

And no inflation. Now you have all the things that allow you to have pricing power. You have very limited capacity for what will be an extended period of time, robust demand growth that we're talking about and broader inflationary pressures, then those things are different to the laws of economics. As they say around here, they're alive and well, and that's what's happening. They were driving the results prepandemic and they're driving this result just in a different set of conditions.

而且沒有通貨膨脹。現在你擁有了所有讓你擁有定價權的東西。在較長一段時間內，你的能力非常有限，我們正在談論的強勁需求增長以及更廣泛的通脹壓力，這些都與經濟規律不同。正如他們在這裡所說的那樣，他們還活著而且很好，這就是正在發生的事情。他們在大流行前推動了結果，他們只是在一組不同的條件下推動了這一結果。

The next question is from Brandt Montour from Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Brandt Montour。

Chris or Kevin, I'm curious if you have thoughts about the conversion activity into a potential macro slowdown. And the basis for the question is that, that activity historically has acted sort of countercyclical for obvious reasons, but you guys just had a cycle where conversion activity was really high. So I guess, was there a pull forward of the conversion activity into 2020 and 2021 and 2022 that we would have maybe normally seen in a macro type of slowdown which we could eventually see?

克里斯或凱文，我很好奇你是否對將活動轉化為潛在的宏觀經濟放緩有想法。這個問題的基礎是，由於顯而易見的原因，這種活動在歷史上一直表現出某種反週期性，但你們剛剛經歷了一個轉換活動非常高的周期。所以我想，轉換活動是否會提前到 2020 年、2021 年和 2022 年，我們通常會在我們最終會看到的宏觀經濟放緩中看到這種情況？

Yes, I don't think -- it's a good question, Brandt. I don't think there's been a pull forward. I mean, we're still going to do roughly 25% of our rooms additions this year as conversions. You're right, that interestingly, it does tend to be countercyclical. And I think this is what you're saying, but I'll just say it anyway, look, sort of rising tide -- conversions actually get tougher in really strong fundamental environments, right? Rising tides lift all boats. And so if you think of an independent hotel that may be considering needing a brand in a really strong demand environment, they need us a little bit less. And so the pace of convergence goes down.

是的，我不認為——這是個好問題，Brandt。我認為沒有任何進展。我的意思是，今年我們仍將增加大約 25% 的房間作為轉換。你是對的，有趣的是，它確實傾向於反週期。我認為這就是你所說的，但無論如何我還是要說，看，有點像漲潮——在非常強大的基本面環境中，轉換實際上變得更加艱難，對吧？漲潮托起所有船隻。因此，如果您想到一家獨立酒店可能正在考慮在非常強勁的需求環境中需要一個品牌，那麼他們對我們的需求會少一些。因此，融合的速度會下降。

So that's actually a little bit, interestingly, a little bit of a headwind at the time -- at right now. And then the other thing that drives is, a lot of them happen around transactions, right? And at the moment, because of people thinking about macro headwinds going forward, transaction activity has slowed somewhat because bid-ask spreads have widened in those markets. And so there aren't as many assets trading. So that's a little bit of a headwind. And I think actually a downturn can sort of be a strong tailwind on both of those fronts, right? If you get a little bit of a reset in people's outlook, you sort of have a downturn, then the outlook gets better, capital costs sort of adjust, rates come down, spreads widen, you actually then see a pickup in transaction activity, which helps.

所以這實際上有點，有趣的是，當時有點逆風 - 現在。然後推動的另一件事是，很多都是圍繞交易發生的，對吧？目前，由於人們考慮到未來的宏觀逆風，交易活動有所放緩，因為這些市場的買賣價差擴大了。因此，沒有那麼多資產交易。所以這有點不利。而且我認為實際上經濟低迷可以成為這兩個方面的強大順風，對吧？如果你對人們的前景進行了一些調整，你就會出現低迷，然後前景會好轉，資本成本會有所調整，利率下降，利差擴大，然後你實際上會看到交易活動有所回升，這幫助。

And then during the downturn, as demand softens, people need us more. So we think that conversions will continue to be a big part of the story. And interestingly enough, a little bit of a softening in the macro could be a nice tailwind there.

然後在經濟低迷時期，隨著需求疲軟，人們更需要我們。因此，我們認為轉化將繼續成為故事的重要組成部分。有趣的是，宏觀經濟的一點點軟化可能是一個很好的順風。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back to Chris Nassetta for any additional or closing remarks.

女士們，先生們，我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回 Chris Nassetta 以聽取任何補充或結束語。

Thanks, everybody, for the time. As always, we appreciate the great questions and opportunity to give you a little bit of color on everything going on. Obviously, the macro environment is a little bit uncertain. And like you, we're watching it very carefully. But as you heard today, we remain really optimistic, certainly, about the long term of the business given the position that we're in from a brand strength and margin and overall enterprise-wide point of view. But we also remain optimistic in the short to medium term, just given that these tailwinds that we've talked about several times today are pretty strong. And we continue to see very good trends and very good recovery across all the segments.

謝謝大家，有時間了。與往常一樣，我們感謝您提出重要問題和機會，讓您對正在發生的一切有所了解。顯然，宏觀環境有點不確定。和你一樣，我們正在非常仔細地觀察它。但正如您今天所聽到的那樣，鑑於我們從品牌實力和利潤以及整個企業範圍的角度來看所處的位置，我們當然對業務的長期前景非常樂觀。但我們在中短期內也保持樂觀，因為我們今天多次談到的這些順風非常強勁。我們繼續看到所有細分市場的良好趨勢和良好復甦。

So we'll look forward after the end of the year to giving you a sense of the fourth quarter, and obviously, a little bit more visibility into how we think about 2023. Thanks again. Have a great day.

因此，我們期待在今年年底後讓您了解第四季度，顯然，我們對 2023 年的看法會有更多的了解。再次感謝。祝你有美好的一天。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。