希爾頓酒店 (HLT) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Hilton Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Jill Slattery, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Development. You may begin.

早上好，歡迎參加希爾頓 2022 年第二季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，此事件正在記錄中。我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係和企業發展高級副總裁 Jill Slattery。你可以開始了。

Thank you, Chad. Welcome to Hilton's Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. Before we begin, we would like to remind you that our discussions this morning will include forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those indicated in the forward-looking statements, and forward-looking statements made today speak only to our expectations as of today.

謝謝你，乍得。歡迎參加希爾頓 2022 年第二季度財報電話會議。在開始之前，我們想提醒您，我們今天上午的討論將包括前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中的結果大相徑庭，今天做出的前瞻性陳述僅代表我們今天的預期。

We undertake no obligation to update or revise these statements. For a discussion of some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ, please see the Risk Factors section of our most recently filed Form 10-K and first quarter 10-Q.

我們不承擔更新或修改這些聲明的義務。有關可能導致實際結果不同的一些因素的討論，請參閱我們最近提交的表格 10-K 和第一季度 10-Q 的風險因素部分。

In addition, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures on this call. You can find reconciliations of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures discussed in today's call in our earnings press release and on our website at ir.hilton.com.

此外，我們將在本次電話會議上參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標。您可以在我們的收益新聞稿和我們的網站 ir.hilton.com 上找到今天電話會議中討論的非 GAAP 與 GAAP 財務指標的對賬。

This morning, Chris Nassetta, our President and Chief Executive Officer, will provide an overview of the current operating environment and the company's outlook. Kevin Jacobs, our Chief Financial Officer and President, Global Development, will then review our second quarter results and discuss expectations for the year. Following their remarks, we will be happy to take your questions. With that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Chris.

今天上午，我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Chris Nassetta 將概述當前的運營環境和公司的前景。我們的首席財務官兼全球發展總裁凱文雅各布斯隨後將審查我們的第二季度業績並討論對今年的預期。在他們的發言之後，我們將很樂意回答您的問題。有了這個，我很高興將電話轉給克里斯。

Thank you, Jill. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us today. As our second quarter results demonstrate, we have a lot to be proud of. System-wide RevPAR achieved 98% of 2019 peak levels with all major regions, except for Asia Pacific, exceeding 2019 RevPAR. We continued to execute on our strong development story, reaching 7,000 hotels globally and grew our industry-leading RevPAR premiums, all while maintaining good cost discipline. Coupled with the resiliency of our asset-light fee-based business model, these accomplishments enabled us to deliver EBITDA 10% higher than the second quarter of 2019, with margins of nearly 70%, up more than 800 basis points above 2019 levels.

謝謝你，吉爾。大家早上好，感謝您今天加入我們。正如我們第二季度的業績所表明的那樣，我們有很多值得驕傲的地方。全系統 RevPAR 達到了 2019 年峰值水平的 98%，除亞太地區外，所有主要地區均超過了 2019 年 RevPAR。我們繼續執行我們強勁的發展故事，在全球範圍內達到 7,000 家酒店，並提高了我們行業領先的 RevPAR 保費，同時保持良好的成本紀律。再加上我們基於收費的輕資產業務模式的彈性，這些成就使我們的 EBITDA 比 2019 年第二季度高出 10%，利潤率接近 70%，比 2019 年水平高出 800 多個基點。

As a result, we continued returning meaningful capital to shareholders after resuming our capital return program last quarter. Turning specifically to results. We reported RevPAR, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS above the high end of our guidance for the second quarter. System-wide RevPAR increased 54% year-over-year and was just 2% below 2019 levels, improving each month throughout the quarter with June RevPAR surpassing prior peaks. All segments improved quarter-over-quarter, led by business transient and group. Leisure transient trends remained robust as consumer spending continue to shift from goods to services, particularly travel and entertainment. Weekend RevPAR was up approximately 14% compared to 2019, driven by robust rate gains.

因此，在上個季度恢復我們的資本回報計劃後，我們繼續向股東返還有意義的資本。具體來說就是結果。我們報告的 RevPAR、調整後的 EBITDA 和調整後的每股收益均高於我們第二季度指引的高端。全系統 RevPAR 同比增長 54%，僅比 2019 年水平低 2%，整個季度每個月都有所改善，6 月 RevPAR 超過了之前的峰值。在業務瞬態和集團的帶動下，所有細分市場都環比有所改善。隨著消費者支出繼續從商品轉向服務，尤其是旅遊和娛樂，休閒短暫趨勢依然強勁。與 2019 年相比，週末 RevPAR 增長了約 14%，這得益於強勁的費率增長。

In June, weekend ADR was up 20% versus prior peaks. Business transient demand continued to improve throughout the quarter, driving weekday occupancy up 6 points from April to June. Weekday RevPAR was 95% of 2019 levels with ADR exceeding prior peaks. U.S. business transient RevPAR surpassed prior peak levels in June with demand improving across nearly all industries. On the group side, RevPAR in the quarter was roughly 85% of 2019 levels. Full year group position improved meaningfully throughout the quarter with strong forward bookings across all location types and nearly all major categories.

6 月，週末 ADR 與之前的峰值相比上漲了 20%。整個季度的商業短暫需求持續改善，推動平日入住率從 4 月到 6 月上升 6 個百分點。工作日 RevPAR 是 2019 年水平的 95%，ADR 超過了之前的峰值。美國商業瞬態 RevPAR 在 6 月份超過了之前的峰值水平，幾乎所有行業的需求都在改善。在集團方面，本季度的 RevPAR 約為 2019 年水平的 85%。全年集團排名在整個季度都有顯著改善，所有地點類型和幾乎所有主要類別的遠期預訂都強勁。

Group mix is beginning to normalize with the percentage of company meetings increasing. Bookings for company meeting strengthened each month of the quarter with tentative pipeline for the year, up materially versus 2019, boosted by high teens rate increases. In the U.S., total group position is nearly at prior peak levels for the third quarter and exceeds prior peaks for the fourth quarter.

隨著公司會議比例的增加，團體組合開始正常化。公司會議的預訂量在本季度每個月都有所增加，今年的暫定管道與 2019 年相比大幅增加，這主要得益於青少年費率的高增長。在美國，集團總頭寸接近第三季度之前的峰值水平，超過了第四季度之前的峰值。

With continued improvement in these segments and positive momentum across all regions, we remain optimistic for continued recovery throughout the balance of the year. As a result, we are raising our expectations for the full year to reflect the quarter's strong results and better anticipated trends in the back half with RevPAR surpassing 2019 levels. For the full year, we expect to deliver adjusted EBITDA above 2019 and to generate the highest level of free cash flow in our history. We expect to return between $1.5 billion and $1.9 billion to shareholders in the form of buybacks and dividends or approximately 5% of our market cap at the midpoint.

隨著這些領域的持續改善和所有地區的積極勢頭，我們對今年餘下時間的持續復甦保持樂觀。因此，我們提高了對全年的預期，以反映本季度的強勁業績和下半年更好的預期趨勢，RevPAR 超過 2019 年的水平。全年，我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 將高於 2019 年，並產生我們歷史上最高水平的自由現金流。我們預計將以回購和股息的形式向股東返還 15 億美元至 19 億美元，或大約為中點市值的 5%。

Turning to unit growth. We continue to drive a disproportionate share of global development with nearly 1 in every 5 rooms under construction around the world slated to join our system. Additionally, our development market share is more than 3x larger than our existing share, meaningfully higher than our peers, given our industry-leading RevPAR premiums. This is reflected in the more than 14,000 rooms we opened in the quarter. We signed more than 23,000 rooms, bringing our development pipeline to a record 413,000 rooms with nearly half of our pipeline under construction, we remain on track to deliver approximately 5% net unit growth for the year.

轉向單位增長。我們繼續在全球發展中佔據不成比例的份額，全球每 5 個在建房間中就有近 1 個計劃加入我們的系統。此外，鑑於我們行業領先的 RevPAR 溢價，我們的開發市場份額是現有份額的 3 倍以上，明顯高於同行。這反映在我們在本季度開設的 14,000 多間客房中。我們簽署了超過 23,000 間客房，使我們的開發項目達到創紀錄的 413,000 間客房，其中近一半的項目正在建設中，我們仍有望實現全年約 5% 的淨單位增長。

According to STAR, our year-to-date net additions are higher than all major branded competitors. Our conversion openings totaled more than 3,400 rooms in the quarter, representing roughly 24% of total openings. One of the most notable conversion openings in the quarter was the Waldorf Astoria, Washington, D.C., inspired by the legacy of the old post office building, the property brings Waldorf's iconic history, stunning design and unforgettable experiences to our nation's capital.

據 STAR 稱，我們年初至今的淨增加量高於所有主要品牌競爭對手。本季度，我們的改建開業客房總數超過 3,400 間，約佔開業總數的 24%。本季度最引人注目的改建開業之一是華盛頓特區的華爾道夫酒店，其靈感來自舊郵局大樓的遺產，該物業將華爾道夫的標誌性歷史、令人驚嘆的設計和令人難忘的體驗帶到了我們國家的首都。

Our disciplined development strategy continues to enhance our network effect, enabling us to serve more guests across more destinations for any stay occasion. During the second quarter, we celebrated the opening of our 2,800 Hampton Hotel, 60,000 Embassy rooms and several key luxury announcements, including the openings of Conrad properties in Nashville and Sardinia and the signings of the Waldorf Astoria Sydney and Waldorf Astoria Kuala Lumpur.

我們嚴謹的發展戰略繼續增強我們的網絡效應，使我們能夠在任何住宿場合為更多目的地的更多客人提供服務。在第二季度，我們慶祝了 2,800 間漢普頓酒店、60,000 間大使館客房和幾項重要的豪華公告，包括在納什維爾和撒丁島開設康萊德酒店，以及簽約悉尼華爾道夫酒店和吉隆坡華爾道夫酒店。

Earlier this month, we celebrated the highly anticipated opening of the Conrad Los Angeles anchored within the grand L.A., the spectacular 305-room hotel marks the brand's debut in California and makes L.A. the second U.S. city alongside Las Vegas to feature all 3 of our luxury brands.

本月早些時候，我們慶祝了備受期待的洛杉磯康萊德酒店的開業，這家酒店擁有 305 間客房，標誌著該品牌在加利福尼亞州的首次亮相，並使洛杉磯成為繼拉斯維加斯之後第二個擁有我們所有 3 項豪華設施的美國城市品牌。

The openings of the Hilton Maldives Amingiri Resort and Spa and the Hilton Tulum Riviera Maya, an all-inclusive resort, were 2 of the latest additions to our rapidly expanding portfolio of resort properties in prime beachfront destinations.

馬爾代夫阿明吉里希爾頓度假村及水療中心和全包式度假村圖盧姆里維埃拉瑪雅希爾頓酒店的開業是我們在主要海濱目的地迅速擴大的度假村物業組合中的最新成員。

With 400 unique hotels and resorts opened and in the pipeline, our conversion-friendly brands, Curio and Tapestry continue to provide an attractive value proposition for owners. By providing authentic and curated experiences and drawing inspiration from their local communities, these brands enable owners to retain their own unique identities while also benefiting from the power of our commercial engines.

隨著 400 家獨特的酒店和度假村的開業和籌備中，我們易於轉換的品牌 Curio 和 Tapestry 繼續為業主提供有吸引力的價值主張。通過提供真實和精心策劃的體驗並從當地社區汲取靈感，這些品牌使業主能夠保留自己的獨特身份，同時也受益於我們商業引擎的力量。

During the quarter, we opened the Royal Palm Galapagos, marking the first international hotel brand in the Galapagos Islands and making Ecuador the 30th country in Curios growing portfolio. Tapestry opened its 10,000th room in the quarter, including the Hotel Marcel New Haven, which is anticipated to be the first net zero hotel in the U.S. and one less than a dozen lead platinum-certified hotels in the country.

在本季度，我們開設了加拉帕戈斯皇家棕櫚酒店，標誌著加拉帕戈斯群島的第一個國際酒店品牌，並使厄瓜多爾成為 Curios 不斷增長的投資組合的第 30 個國家。 Tapestry 在本季度開設了第 10,000 間客房，其中包括馬塞爾紐黑文酒店，該酒店預計將成為美國第一家淨零酒店，以及該國不到 12 家獲得鉛鉑金認證的酒店。

All of these openings continue to expand the offerings available to our Hilton Honors members. In the quarter, Honors membership grew 17% to 139 million members and accounted for approximately 62% of occupancy, up 350 basis points year-over-year and roughly in line with 2019.

所有這些職位空缺都將繼續擴大我們的希爾頓榮譽客會會員可以使用的產品。本季度，Honors 會員增長 17%，達到 1.39 億，佔入住率約 62%，同比增長 350 個基點，與 2019 年基本持平。

To address the evolving needs of guests, who want to travel with their pets, we have expanded our partnership with Mars Petcare to now include 7 of our brands, including all our focused service and all Suites brands as well as Canopy. Through these expanded partnerships, guests will have access to virtual support from the Mars pet expert team and have more than 4,600 pet-friendly hotels to choose from.

為了滿足希望攜帶寵物旅行的客人不斷變化的需求，我們擴大了與 Mars Petcare 的合作夥伴關係，現已涵蓋我們的 7 個品牌，包括我們所有的專注服務和所有 Suites 品牌以及 Canopy。通過這些擴大的合作夥伴關係，客人將獲得瑪氏寵物專家團隊的虛擬支持，並有 4,600 多家寵物友好型酒店可供選擇。

We continue to double down on the importance of the guest experience and their stay. Earlier this week, we launched our first ever global platform to focus on what has been missing from hotel advertising, the stay. Hilton for the stay places the hotel front and center. It goes without saying that our team members continue to be at the heart of that stay experience. I'm extremely proud that earlier in the quarter, Hilton was inducted in DiversityInc's Hall of Fame for our continued commitment to building an inclusive and welcoming environment.

我們將繼續加倍強調客人體驗及其住宿的重要性。本週早些時候，我們推出了首個全球平台，專注於酒店廣告中缺少的內容，即住宿。希爾頓的住宿地點位於酒店的前面和中心。毋庸置疑，我們的團隊成員將繼續成為入住體驗的核心。我感到非常自豪的是，希爾頓在本季度早些時候入選了 DiversityInc 的名人堂，因為我們繼續致力於建立一個包容和熱情的環境。

And now I'll turn the call over to Kevin for a few more details on the quarter and the expectations for the rest of the year.

現在我將把電話轉給凱文，以了解有關本季度的更多細節以及對今年剩餘時間的預期。

Thanks, Chris, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝，克里斯，大家早上好。

During the quarter, system-wide RevPAR grew 54.3% versus the prior year on a comparable and currency-neutral basis. System-wide RevPAR was down 2.1% compared to 2019. Growth was driven by continued strength in leisure demand through the start of the summer travel season as well as stronger-than-expected recovery in business transient and group travel. Performance was driven by both occupancy and rate growth. Adjusted EBITDA was $679 million in the second quarter, exceeding the high end of our guidance range and up 70% year-over-year. The outperformance was driven by better-than-expected fee growth, particularly across the Americas and EMEA regions.

在本季度，在可比和貨幣中性的基礎上，全系統 RevPAR 與上一年相比增長了 54.3%。與 2019 年相比，全系統 RevPAR 下降了 2.1%。增長的推動因素是夏季旅遊旺季開始期間休閒需求的持續強勁，以及商務旅行和團體旅行的複蘇強於預期。業績受到入住率和房價增長的推動。第二季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 6.79 億美元，超過了我們指導範圍的高端，同比增長 70%。出色的表現是由好於預期的費用增長推動的，尤其是在美洲和歐洲、中東和非洲地區。

Management and franchise fees grew 54%, driven by meaningful RevPAR improvement and strong Honors license fees. Cost control further benefited results.

管理費和特許經營費增長了 54%，這主要得益於 RevPAR 的顯著改善和高額的榮譽許可費。成本控制進一步受益。

For the quarter, diluted earnings per share adjusted for special items was $1.29, exceeding the high end of our guidance range and increasing 130% year-over-year.

本季度，特殊項目調整後的每股攤薄收益為 1.29 美元，超過了我們指導範圍的高端，同比增長 130%。

Turning to our regional performance. Second quarter comparable U.S. RevPAR grew 47% year-over-year and was up 1% versus 2019. Performance continued to be led by robust leisure trends and was further boosted by significant RevPAR recovery in business transient group, up 16 and 20 percentage points, respectively, from the first quarter. In the Americas outside of the U.S., second quarter RevPAR increased 140% year-over-year and was up nearly 5% versus 2019. Performance was driven by strong leisure demand, particularly at resort properties. In Europe, RevPAR grew 283% year-over-year and was up 1% versus 2019. Performance benefited from reduced travel restrictions and greater than expected international inbound arrivals.

談到我們的區域表現。第二季度可比美國 RevPAR 同比增長 47%，比 2019 年增長 1%。業績繼續受到強勁的休閒趨勢的引領，並進一步受到商業臨時組 RevPAR 顯著復甦的推動，分別增長 16 個和 20 個百分點，分別從第一季度開始。在美國以外的美洲，第二季度 RevPAR 同比增長 140%，與 2019 年相比增長近 5%。業績受到強勁的休閒需求的推動，尤其是度假物業。在歐洲，RevPAR 同比增長 283%，與 2019 年相比增長 1%。業績得益於旅行限制減少和國際入境人數超出預期。

In the Middle East and Africa region, RevPAR increased 68% year-over-year and was up 4% versus 2019. The region continued to benefit from robust domestic leisure demand and strong international inbound travel, particularly from Europe. In the Asia Pacific region, second quarter RevPAR was down 5% year-over-year and down 39% versus 2019. RevPAR in China was down 47% compared to 2019 as strict COVID policies and lockdowns in Shanghai and Beijing continued to weigh on travel demand early in the quarter.

在中東和非洲地區，RevPAR 同比增長 68%，與 2019 年相比增長 4%。該地區繼續受益於強勁的國內休閒需求和強勁的國際入境旅遊，尤其是來自歐洲的入境旅遊。在亞太地區，第二季度 RevPAR 同比下降 5%，與 2019 年相比下降 39%。與 2019 年相比，中國的 RevPAR 下降了 47%，原因是上海和北京的嚴格 COVID 政策和封鎖繼續給旅行帶來壓力本季度初的需求。

Demand recovered quickly once restrictions eased with occupancy in China recovering from 37% in April to approximately 60% in June, less than 6 points shy of 2019 levels. The rest of the Asia Pacific region saw improvement as countries outside of China benefited from border reopenings. RevPAR for Asia Pacific ex China improved 12 percentage points throughout the second quarter, with April down 29% versus 2019 and June down 17%. We remain optimistic about continued recovery across the entire APAC region, including China as COVID-related policies continue to ease and additional countries open their borders for international travel.

一旦限制放鬆，需求迅速恢復，中國的入住率從 4 月的 37% 恢復到 6 月的約 60%，比 2019 年的水平低 6 個百分點。隨著中國以外的國家從邊境重新開放中受益，亞太地區其他地區的情況有所改善。亞太地區（中國除外）的 RevPAR 在整個第二季度提高了 12 個百分點，其中 4 月與 2019 年相比下降了 29%，6 月下降了 17%。我們對整個亞太地區（包括中國）的持續復甦仍然持樂觀態度，因為與 COVID 相關的政策繼續放寬，更多國家為國際旅行開放邊境。

Turning to development. Our pipeline grew year-over-year and sequentially, totaling over 413,000 rooms at the end of the quarter with 60% of pipeline rooms located outside the U.S. and roughly half under construction. While macroeconomic uncertainty and variability across regions persistent, owner and developer interest remains healthy. The development community continues to preference our industry-leading brands and strong commercial engines. For the full year, we still expect net unit growth of approximately 5% and signings to exceed 100,000 rooms.

轉向發展。我們的管道同比和環比增長，在本季度末共有超過 413,000 間客房，其中 60% 的管道客房位於美國以外，大約一半在建設中。儘管各地區的宏觀經濟不確定性和可變性持續存在，但業主和開發商的興趣仍然健康。開發社區繼續偏愛我們行業領先的品牌和強大的商業引擎。全年，我們仍預計淨單位增長率約為 5%，簽約客房數將超過 100,000 間。

Moving to guidance. For the third quarter, we expect system-wide RevPAR growth to be between 25% and 30% year-over-year or up 1% to 5% compared to third quarter 2019. We expect adjusted EBITDA between $660 million and $690 million and diluted EPS adjusted for special items to be between $1.16 and $1.24. For full year 2022, we expect RevPAR growth between 37% and 43%. Relative to 2019, we expect RevPAR to be down 1% to 5%. We forecast adjusted EBITDA of between $2.4 billion and $2.5 billion, with margins for the full year more than 600 basis points higher than 2019 levels.

轉向指導。對於第三季度，我們預計全系統 RevPAR 同比增長在 25% 至 30% 之間，或與 2019 年第三季度相比增長 1% 至 5%。我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 將在 6.6 億美元至 6.9 億美元之間並被稀釋針對特殊項目調整的每股收益在 1.16 美元至 1.24 美元之間。對於 2022 年全年，我們預計 RevPAR 將增長 37% 至 43%。相對於 2019 年，我們預計 RevPAR 將下降 1% 至 5%。我們預測調整後的 EBITDA 將在 24 億美元至 25 億美元之間，全年利潤率比 2019 年水平高出 600 個基點以上。

Our adjusted EBITDA forecast represents a year-over-year increase of more than 50% at the midpoint and exceeds 2019 adjusted EBITDA. We forecast diluted EPS adjusted for special items of between $4.21 and $4.46. Please note that our guidance ranges do not incorporate future share repurchases. Moving on to capital return. We paid a cash dividend of $0.15 per share during the second quarter for a total of $41 million. Our Board also authorized a quarterly dividend of $0.15 per share in the third quarter. Year-to-date, we have returned more than $800 million to shareholders in the form of buybacks and dividends. For the full year, we expect to return between $1.5 billion and $1.9 billion to shareholders in the form of buybacks and dividends. Further details on our second quarter results can be found in the earnings release we issued earlier this morning.

我們調整後的 EBITDA 預測中點同比增長超過 50%，超過 2019 年調整後的 EBITDA。我們預計特殊項目調整後的攤薄每股收益在 4.21 美元至 4.46 美元之間。請注意，我們的指導範圍不包括未來的股票回購。繼續資本回報。我們在第二季度支付了每股 0.15 美元的現金股息，總計 4100 萬美元。我們的董事會還授權在第三季度派發每股 0.15 美元的季度股息。年初至今，我們以回購和分紅的形式向股東返還了超過 8 億美元。全年，我們預計將以回購和股息的形式向股東返還 15 億至 19 億美元。關於我們第二季度業績的更多細節可以在我們今天早上早些時候發布的收益報告中找到。

This completes our prepared remarks. We would now like to open the line for any questions you may have. We would like to speak to all of you this morning, so we ask that you limit yourself to one question. Chad, can we have our first question, please?

這完成了我們準備好的評論。我們現在想為您可能有的任何問題打開熱線。今天早上我們想和你們所有人談談，所以我們要求你們把自己限制在一個問題上。乍得，我們可以問第一個問題嗎？

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from the line of Carlo Santarelli with Deutsche Bank.

我們現在開始問答環節。 （操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Carlo Santarelli。

Chris, Kevin, Jill, everyone. Chris, maybe this one is best for you. Just in terms of how you're thinking about the rest of the year, what is it that you guys see here at the end of July. I'm sure you have a pretty good look into August. But clearly, the September, October, busier business travel season, group season, et cetera. What is it that you see in those periods that kind of gives you the confidence in the guidance raise for the rest of the year? And how do you kind of think about or feel when you look out to 2023?

克里斯，凱文，吉爾，每個人。克里斯，也許這個最適合你。就你們對今年剩餘時間的看法而言，你們在 7 月底在這裡看到了什麼。我敢肯定你對八月的看法很不錯。但顯然，九月、十月、更繁忙的商務旅行季節、團體季節等等。你在那些時期看到了什麼讓你對今年剩餘時間的指導提高充滿信心？當您展望 2023 年時，您有什麼想法或感覺？

Carlo, thanks for the question. That obviously is the prime question, I think, on everybody's mind. And I think it would be sort of best to start by saying, as everybody on this call knows, that there's certainly a lot of uncertainty in the world. And I think we have to sort of be mindful of that as everybody has. I mean we have been as much as we see what's going on and we're watching the broader environment and lots of talk of slowdown and seeing it in certain industries, certainly, I think predominantly industries that had reached high watermarks that were -- had favorable impacts from COVID, but nonetheless, starting to see a slowdown.

卡洛，謝謝你的問題。我認為，這顯然是每個人都關心的首要問題。我認為最好先說，正如本次電話會議的每個人都知道的那樣，世界上肯定存在很多不確定性。我認為我們必須像每個人一樣注意這一點。我的意思是，我們一直在關注正在發生的事情，我們正在關注更廣泛的環境，很多關於放緩的討論，並在某些行業看到它，當然，我認為主要是那些已經達到高水位的行業——已經來自 COVID 的有利影響，但儘管如此，開始出現放緩。

We have been looking very carefully at our business, as you would guess, at all the segments sort of any forward-looking trends that we can see. And I would say what we're seeing still is very positive. We see, as Kevin and I both said in our prepared comments, continued strength in leisure. We expect to see that continue into the fall at higher rates than normal. I mean lower rates than summer like always, but higher rates than you would have typically seen pre-COVID just because of increased leisure business, business transient continues to recover, led by recovery in the big corporates, which are not back to where they are, but they're back to sort of 80% of where they were.

正如您所猜測的那樣，我們一直在非常仔細地研究我們的業務，在我們可以看到的任何前瞻性趨勢的所有細分市場中。我想說的是，我們所看到的仍然是非常積極的。正如凱文和我在準備好的評論中所說，我們看到，休閒領域的持續力量。我們預計這種情況會以高於正常水平的速度持續到秋季。我的意思是像往常一樣比夏季更低的利率，但由於休閒業務的增加，商業短暫性繼續復甦，這比你通常在 COVID 之前看到的更高，主要是大企業的複蘇，這些企業沒有回到原來的位置，但它們又回到了原來的 80%。

And the SMB side of the business that has been quite robust. I mean, in the second half of the year based on the trends we've been seeing, our expectation is business transient is going to be sort of on a revenue basis equal to 2019 levels. And then when we think about the group side, while we don't think in the second half, we'll get all the way back to where we were in '19. We're going to get awfully close. And as I said in my prepared comments, if we look at the booking position in third and fourth quarter, second half of the year, it's over '19 levels. And our sales teams tell -- keep telling me they can hardly keep up with the demand.

以及業務的 SMB 方面非常強大。我的意思是，根據我們一直看到的趨勢，在今年下半年，我們的預期是業務瞬態將在收入基礎上達到 2019 年的水平。然後當我們考慮小組賽時，雖然我們不會在下半場考慮，但我們會一直回到 19 年的狀態。我們會非常接近。正如我在準備好的評論中所說，如果我們看一下今年下半年第三和第四季度的預訂情況，它已經超過了 19 年的水平。我們的銷售團隊告訴我——不斷告訴我他們幾乎跟不上需求。

Now reality is, again, we're in an uncertain world. The booking windows are short. So our visibility is limited certainly on transient business. We can't really look too deeply into the fall in transient. Again, we can on the group side and those stats are good. But the current trajectory is good. Looking at July, June, as we said, was over '19 levels. July is trending in a very good way, and it will be over '19 and improve over and above what we saw in June.

現在現實是，再一次，我們處於一個不確定的世界。預訂窗口很短。因此，我們對臨時業務的可見性肯定是有限的。我們真的不能太深入地研究短暫的下跌。再說一次，我們可以在小組賽方面，而且這些數據都很好。但目前的軌跡是好的。正如我們所說，看看 7 月和 6 月，已經超過了 19 個水平。 7 月的趨勢非常好，它將超過 19 年，並且比我們在 6 月看到的情況有所改善。

So we -- everything we're seeing sort of real time, everything we have in terms of sight lines into the future, all feel pretty good. Recognizing it's -- there's a lot of macro uncertainty and recognizing that our booking windows and sight lines are not that far out. I think what is causing it, like sort of as you see other industries sort of being impacted every day, including today is a big reporting day. Again, I think a lot of what you see coming sort of going the wrong way or industries that were at crazy peaks because they were huge beneficiaries, many of them of COVID and the pandemic. We were obviously not a big beneficiary. I think that's a fairly nice way of putting it, and our industry got hammered.

所以我們——我們所看到的一切都是實時的，我們所擁有的一切都在未來的視線方面，都感覺很好。認識到這一點 - 存在很多宏觀不確定性，並認識到我們的預訂窗口和視線並不遙遠。我認為是什麼導致了它，就像你看到其他行業每天都受到影響一樣，包括今天是一個重要的報告日。再說一次，我認為你看到的很多事情都走錯了路，或者行業處於瘋狂的高峰，因為它們是巨大的受益者，其中許多是 COVID 和大流行病的受益者。我們顯然不是一個大受益者。我認為這是一種相當好的表達方式，我們的行業受到了重創。

And so what we're benefiting from, I think, is sort of a handful of things. One, there's a lot of pent-up demand. We hear it all the time. I mean while I don't have tremendous sight lines in the sense of real transient booking data to give you, because it doesn't exist. We talk to our customers all the time, not just the group customers. We're talking to all of our customers, and we're in a regular dialogue with our SMBs with the big corporates. And the anecdotal feedback that we're getting as we go into the fall is people have to travel more. More offices are open, more people are back in the office, while people are worried about where the macro environment is going, they've got to run the businesses. And in fact, the more worried they are, the more they realize they sort of got to get out there and make sure they're hustling.

因此，我認為我們從中受益的是一些東西。一，有很多被壓抑的需求。我們一直聽到它。我的意思是，雖然我沒有提供給您的真實臨時預訂數據意義上的巨大視線，因為它不存在。我們一直在與客戶交談，而不僅僅是團體客戶。我們正在與我們所有的客戶交談，我們正在與我們的中小型企業與大公司進行定期對話。進入秋天，我們得到的軼事反饋是人們必須更多地旅行。更多辦公室開放，更多人回到辦公室，當人們擔心宏觀環境走向何方時，他們必須經營業務。事實上，他們越擔心，他們就越意識到他們必須走出去，確保他們在忙碌。

So there is an element of pent-up demand. There is clearly -- and I'm not going to say I was right, but I've been right. There's clearly a massive shift in spending patterns, right, away from goods to services. I said in my prepared comments, I've been saying since the beginning of the pandemic that the world is not going to go upside down, that it may go upside down for a while, but it will normalize, and that's exactly what we're seeing. And so not only do you have pent-up demand, but you just have new demand that's coming as people are sort of shifting their spending patterns. That means leisure business group, the people are shifting back to a more normalized lifestyle. Maybe it's not exactly the way it was, but it's more like it was than it was -- it's more like it was pre-COVID than it is during COVID and so we're the beneficiary of that.

因此，存在被壓抑的需求因素。很明顯——我不會說我是對的，但我一直是對的。消費模式顯然發生了巨大轉變，從商品轉向服務。我在準備好的評論中說，自大流行開始以來，我一直在說，世界不會顛倒過來，它可能會顛倒一段時間，但它會正常化，而這正是我們所做的。重看。因此，您不僅有被壓抑的需求，而且隨著人們正在改變他們的消費模式，您還會有新的需求。這意味著休閒商務集團，人們正在轉向更正常的生活方式。也許它不完全是這樣，但它更像是它而不是它 - 它更像是在 COVID 之前而不是在 COVID 期間，所以我們是其中的受益者。

You have infrastructure, people don't talk about it, we passed a nearly $1 trillion infrastructure package last year. Very little of that has been spent. Traditionally, you would start to see spending in the second, third and fourth year. So we're just sort of coming into the zone over the next 2 or 3 years on $1 trillion of spending. I've said this so many times, you guys are tired of hearing it.

你有基礎設施，人們不談論它，我們去年通過了近 1 萬億美元的基礎設施一攬子計劃。花費的很少。傳統上，您會在第二年、第三年和第四年開始看到支出。因此，我們只是在未來 2 或 3 年內以 1 萬億美元的支出進入該區域。我已經說了很多次了，你們聽膩了。

The highest R-squared correlation to demand growth in hotel rooms is NRFI, nonresidential fixed investment, AKA infrastructure. So I think -- we think -- we feel good about sort of that being sort of underpinning broadly. Asia recovery, Kevin talked about it. Asia has been way behind. It's not recovering as quickly as we would have thought, particularly China, but I do -- but it is recovering. And I think that provides some benefit not just the rest of this year, but in next year. And then probably last but not least, if we look at our customers, certainly, like our Honors space, which are driving the disproportionate share of our system-wide revenues. At the moment, they're still in pretty good shape. I mean, the median income of our higher-end Honors members is significantly over $100,000 median income. And so at the moment, they're still in pretty good shape, and we haven't really yet seen any real cracks in the armor in terms of their spending patterns.

與酒店客房需求增長的最高 R 平方相關性是 NRFI，非住宅固定投資，AKA 基礎設施。所以我認為——我們認為——我們對這種廣泛的支持感覺很好。亞洲復甦，凱文談到它。亞洲已經落後了。它並沒有我們想像的那麼快恢復，尤其是中國，但我做到了——但它正在恢復。而且我認為這不僅會在今年剩下的時間裡帶來一些好處，而且會在明年帶來一些好處。然後可能是最後但並非最不重要的一點，如果我們看看我們的客戶，當然，就像我們的榮譽空間，它正在推動我們全系統收入的不成比例的份額。目前，他們的狀態仍然很好。我的意思是，我們高端榮譽會員的收入中位數遠遠超過 100,000 美元。所以目前，它們的狀態仍然很好，我們還沒有真正看到盔甲在消費模式方面有任何真正的裂痕。

So I know that's a filibuster of sorts, but I think it gives -- to answer the question, it gives you color for as we sat in the very room we're sitting in and thought about how do we feel about the rest of this year that's how we sort of -- that's how we came up with our forecast and our outlook. And as we think about next year, listen, I'd be silly to say I know because nobody knows. This is -- we're in pretty much uncharted waters as the smartest economist I talked to you are saying the same thing. So I don't know. But I think a bunch of those things that I described are pretty good wind in our sales against what is obviously going to be a slowing U.S. and global economy because that's what central banks are going to do.

所以我知道這是一種阻撓，但我認為它給出了——回答這個問題，當我們坐在我們所在的房間裡思考我們對剩下的事情的感覺時，它給了你色彩一年這就是我們的方式 - 這就是我們提出我們的預測和展望的方式。當我們考慮明年時，聽著，說我知道是愚蠢的，因為沒有人知道。這是 - 我們處於幾乎未知的水域，因為我與你交談過的最聰明的經濟學家也在說同樣的話。所以我不知道。但我認為，我所描述的這些事情對我們的銷售來說是相當不錯的風向，因為這顯然是美國和全球經濟放緩的情況，因為這就是央行要做的事情。

But we have some things that I think sort of -- are winds blowing the other way. And so I think as we get into the first half of next year, we're feeling like that is going to be helpful to us. How we think the whole year will play out. Obviously, it's premature for us to judge. And -- when we get a little bit closer to it, we'll have a little bit more precise view.

但是我們有一些我認為有點像的東西——風向相反的方向吹。所以我認為隨著我們進入明年上半年，我們覺得這將對我們有所幫助。我們認為全年將如何發展。顯然，我們現在判斷還為時過早。而且——當我們離它更近一點時，我們會有更精確的視圖。

Great. Chris, that's very helpful. And then I want to be courteous to everyone on the call. But just quickly to clarify some of the comments from earlier, as you guys talked about group and 4Q being greater or being up year-over-year, I should say. Was that a revenue position comment you were making...

偉大的。克里斯，這很有幫助。然後我想對通話中的每個人都彬彬有禮。但是，請盡快澄清之前的一些評論，因為你們談到小組和 4Q 更大或同比增長，我應該說。那是您發表的收入狀況評論嗎...

Revenue, revenue...

收入，收入……

Okay. Can you talk about from an occupancy or occupied room night perspective, how group compares?

好的。你能從入住率或被佔用房間夜景的角度談談，組的比較如何？

Yes. I think system-wide second half of the year, we think will be in the 90s. It will probably be 5 points off with the difference being made up in rate.

是的。我認為今年下半年全系統，我們認為將在 90 年代。它可能會減少 5 點，差價會被彌補。

Speaker 1.

揚聲器 1。

And the next question is from Shaun Kelley from Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Shaun Kelley。

Chris, maybe just to dig in, I mean, obviously, you covered sort of most of the subjects in that last answer. So maybe to go slightly or deeper. If we just think about the acceleration between kind of what you're implying for the third quarter and what you actually saw in the second, what are some of the biggest variances that are going to drive that things that come to mind are obviously international and then the continued improvement you probably saw sequentially on business transient. But could you help unpack that a little bit?

克里斯，也許只是為了深入挖掘，我的意思是，很明顯，你在最後一個答案中涵蓋了大部分主題。所以可能會稍微或更深一些。如果我們只考慮您對第三季度所暗示的那種與您在第二季度實際看到的那種之間的加速，那麼哪些是最大的差異將推動那些浮現在腦海中的事情顯然是國際和然後您可能會在業務瞬態上看到持續的改進。但是你能幫我解開一點嗎？

Yes. I mean, sorry, I did give a bit of a filibuster, but just wanted to give the whole thing in context and not have it be chopped up. So my apologies for answering probably a bunch of your questions. But I do think I sort of covered that. We certainly expect international travel to pick up. We don't think that's going to move the needle necessarily in a huge way in the second half of the year.

是的。我的意思是，對不起，我確實有點阻撓，但只是想在上下文中給出整個事情，而不是讓它被切碎。所以我很抱歉回答了你的一堆問題。但我確實認為我涵蓋了這一點。我們當然希望國際旅行回升。我們認為這不會在今年下半年以巨大的方式移動針頭。

It really is what we described -- what I already described, which is continuing strength in leisure because weekend business, we think, is still going to remain strong. Consumers still has desire and capacity to do it. They are traveling more from combination leisure business, business and leisure. So we think that will mean leisure business will ultimately be at elevated levels relative to what we saw in pre-pandemic times. And we do think, from a revenue point of view, business transient is on track, largely because of the success we've had in SMB, in the second half of the year to so on a revenue basis, be back to 2019 levels. Now that depends -- we don't have all those bookings on -- that are confirmed at this point. But if you look again at June and July, we talked to the customers, we looked at detailed data on sort of how they're behaving right now. We feel good about that. And group, I covered. I mean, we think group will not recover to where we were in '19. There's just not enough time, but we think it's going to get awfully close, and we think there's a lot of momentum in the group side going into next year.

這確實是我們所描述的——我已經描述過，這是休閒領域的持續強勢，因為我們認為周末業務仍將保持強勁。消費者仍然有這樣做的願望和能力。他們的旅行更多來自休閒商務、商務和休閒相結合。因此，我們認為，與我們在大流行前時期看到的情況相比，這將意味著休閒業務最終將處於更高的水平。而且我們確實認為，從收入的角度來看，業務暫時走上正軌，這主要是因為我們在 SMB 取得了成功，在今年下半年等收入基礎上，將回到 2019 年的水平。現在這取決於 - 我們沒有所有這些預訂 - 在這一點上得到確認。但是，如果您再看一下 6 月和 7 月，我們與客戶進行了交談，我們查看了有關他們目前行為方式的詳細數據。我們對此感覺良好。和小組，我報導了。我的意思是，我們認為小組不會恢復到 19 年的水平。沒有足夠的時間，但我們認為它會非常接近，我們認為明年小組賽會有很大的動力。

So I think net-net, Shaun, probably repeating myself, what it depends on is more of what we've been seeing, just grinding up on business. I mean we are -- for the whole quarter, we were at 95% on business transient. So we're getting awfully close, in June in the U.S., we hit '19 levels. So it doesn't -- the rest of the year doesn't -- it's sort of -- what the rest of the year suggests is the strengthening in group based on our real position of group room nights on the books and similar to what we've seen in June and July in business transient and normal strength on weekends for leisure, but normal pattern of leisure backing off during the midweek as you go into the fall.

所以我認為net-net，Shaun，可能會重複我自己，它所依賴的更多是我們所看到的，只是在業務上磨合。我的意思是我們 - 在整個季度中，我們的業務瞬態率為 95%。所以我們非常接近，6 月份在美國，我們達到了 19 年的水平。所以它沒有——今年剩下的時間沒有——它有點——今年剩下的時間表明，基於我們在書本上的團體房間之夜的真實位置以及類似於什麼我們在 6 月和 7 月看到，週末休閒的商務活動短暫而正常，但隨著您進入秋季，正常的休閒模式在周中回落。

Next question will come from Joe Greff from JPMorgan.

下一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Joe Greff。

If you go back and you look at the last 2.5 years, it's been remarkable that your same-store RevPAR growth rate and your management and franchise fee growth rate have myriad other almost to a one-to-one relationship. And over that time frame, you've grown your room count north of 10%.

如果你回顧過去的 2.5 年，你會發現你的同店 RevPAR 增長率和你的管理費和特許經營費增長率幾乎是一對一的關係。在這段時間內，您的房間數量增加了 10% 以上。

Does the relationship between RevPAR growth and say, fee growth or that sensitivity change going forward where maybe there's -- if RevPAR were to experience a decline that sensitivity to the downside is maybe more favorable than what it would have been in the last couple of years just because of the growth in the room count?

RevPAR 增長與費用增長或敏感性之間的關係是否會在未來發生變化 - 如果 RevPAR 經歷下降，那麼對下行的敏感性可能比過去幾年更有利僅僅因為房間數量的增長？

I think the -- well, I think the answer is yes. And what largely would drive it is what you're saying, the non-RevPAR-related fees are growing as a percentage of the fee base. And then the impact on the downside was accentuated because of the extremes. So in a normal like sort of -- normal recessionary environment, you don't see those sort of extreme impacts in terms of declines RevPAR to EBITDA. So we think in a normal kind of environment, yes, it would be more one for one, and we get the benefit of the things you described.

我認為——嗯，我認為答案是肯定的。主要推動它的是你所說的，非 RevPAR 相關費用佔費用基數的百分比正在增長。然後，由於極端情況，下行的影響更加突出。因此，在類似正常的衰退環境中，您不會看到 RevPAR 對 EBITDA 下降的極端影響。因此，我們認為在正常的環境中，是的，這將是一對一的，我們會從您描述的事情中受益。

The next question is from David Katz from Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 David Katz。

Congrats on the quarter. I wanted to just touch on the owned and leased portion of the model, which I think, swung to positive of this quarter, it was a little earlier than what we anticipated. Can you just talk about what's driving that? Is there a strong business component to that? And give us some help with the rest of the year and sort of what's in there and how we might think about that?

祝賀本季度。我只想談談模型的自有和租賃部分，我認為本季度轉向積極，這比我們預期的要早一點。你能談談是什麼推動了這一點嗎？是否有強大的業務成分？並在今年剩下的時間裡給我們一些幫助，裡面有什麼，我們會怎麼想？

Yes, David, I think the -- look, first of all, I would say, yes, you're right, it did swing to a profit. We've been saying for a while that the growth rate would be more than the overall portfolio. In fact, that was the case when the numbers were still negative. It was in a weird way, we're still growing faster, improving the growth rate of the company. It's all fundamentals, though. I mean, if you look at where the portfolio is located, in this particular quarter, the real strength regions were U.K., particularly London and Central Europe. Japan, still a little bit further behind. So as APAC recoveries, you have even a little bit more of a tailwind there from that part of the portfolio. But the RevPAR growth in the quarter was significantly ahead of even where I gave the Europe, the EMEA number -- I gave the Europe number in my prepared remarks. The RevPAR for this portfolio was even further ahead of that. And so that's where it's coming from.

是的，大衛，我認為 - 看，首先，我會說，是的，你是對的，它確實獲利了。一段時間以來，我們一直在說增長率將超過整體投資組合。事實上，當數字仍然為負時，情況就是如此。這是一種奇怪的方式，我們仍然增長得更快，提高了公司的增長率。不過，這都是基本面。我的意思是，如果你看看投資組合的位置，在這個特定的季度，真正的優勢地區是英國，尤其是倫敦和中歐。日本，仍然落後一些。因此，隨著亞太地區的複蘇，您可以從投資組合的那部分獲得更多的順風。但是本季度的 RevPAR 增長明顯領先於我在歐洲、歐洲、中東和非洲地區的數字——我在準備好的評論中給出了歐洲的數字。該投資組合的 RevPAR 甚至更領先於此。這就是它的來源。

And we expect those trends to continue. Again, particularly as Japan is a little bit further behind on recovery. So we expect going forward at that portfolio. Well, remember, it's a small part of the business, and over time will continue to be a smaller part of the business, but it will be a tailwind to our growth rate for a while as those regions recover.

我們預計這些趨勢將繼續下去。再次強調，尤其是日本在復蘇方面稍微落後一些。因此，我們預計該投資組合會繼續發展。好吧，請記住，這只是業務的一小部分，隨著時間的推移，它將繼續成為業務的一小部分，但隨著這些地區的複蘇，這將在一段時間內對我們的增長率起到推動作用。

Can I -- if I may, not to overstay my welcome, but should we perhaps look at the '19 levels or any past levels of profitability? And how might those guide us as we think about the future?

我是否可以——如果可以的話，不要過分歡迎，但我們是否應該看看 19 年的水平或任何過去的盈利水平？當我們思考未來時，這些將如何指導我們？

Yes. I think it's -- there's no reason why it won't get back to or even exceed prior levels. You got to remember the portfolio does get a little bit smaller over time. We exited 7 of those assets last year, 3 of which came into the system and shifted over to paying fees, but 4 of which went away altogether. That's not going to make a huge difference on that. But I would -- so I would say keeping in mind that the portfolio continues to get smaller, I would say that recovering to where it was on a lag is a good way to think about it.

是的。我認為它 - 沒有理由不會回到甚至超過之前的水平。您必須記住，隨著時間的推移，投資組合確實會變小一些。去年我們退出了其中的 7 項資產，其中 3 項進入系統並轉為支付費用，但其中 4 項完全消失了。這不會有太大的不同。但我會 - 所以我會說記住投資組合繼續變小，我會說恢復到滯後狀態是一個很好的思考方式。

And the next question is from Smedes Rose from Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗的 Smedes Rose。

I just wanted to ask you just a little bit on the pipeline, you continue to see sequential growth there and significant signings. And it just seems a little bit kind of a lot of cross currents going on, keep hearing about developer challenges. And I'm just wondering if you could speak to where you're seeing the growth? I know you've spoken about China, but how is it looking in the U.S.? And what sort of challenges maybe your developers facing? And is Hilton helping at all in terms of loans or anything of that sort?

我只是想問你一點關於管道的問題，你繼續看到那裡的連續增長和重要的簽約。似乎有點像很多交叉流，不斷聽到開發人員面臨的挑戰。我只是想知道你是否可以談談你看到增長的地方？我知道你談到了中國，但它在美國的情況如何？您的開發人員可能面臨什麼樣的挑戰？希爾頓是否在貸款或類似方面提供幫助？

Yes, a really good question. And I mean what's going on essentially, and let me just sort of everywhere, but China is that demand on the -- from owners to sign new deals has actually moved up pretty nicely. And you would say, why with all the swirling winds and all the uncertainty. Well, I mean, look at -- like they own assets and they're -- look at the results we're delivering and what we think will deliver for the year and where we are relative to '19, you think about margins, not our margins, but all the changes we've made in the hotels, I mean, the reality is not every single -- in every single case, but in many, many cases, the hotels that our owners own are performing extraordinarily well.

是的，一個非常好的問題。我的意思是本質上正在發生的事情，讓我隨便說一下，但中國是對 - 從業主簽署新協議的需求實際上已經很好地上升了。你會說，為什麼會有所有的旋風和所有的不確定性。好吧，我的意思是，看看 - 就像他們擁有資產一樣 - 看看我們正在交付的結果以及我們認為今年將交付的內容以及我們相對於 19 年的位置，你會考慮利潤率，不是我們的利潤，而是我們對酒店所做的所有改變，我的意思是，現實並不是每一個——在每一個案例中，但在很多很多情況下，我們業主擁有的酒店都表現得非常好。

They're at high RevPARs with higher margins than they had pre-COVID. And so listen, this is what they do for a living. They're seeing great success. They're seeing tremendous flow-through. They're seeing incredible rate sort of pressure and that makes them want to do more of what they do. And so as Kevin said, we'll sign. We won't get to our peak in signings but we're getting closer. We'll get over 100,000 rooms. And again, I think it's just positive sign.

他們的 RevPAR 比 COVID 之前的利潤率更高。所以聽著，這就是他們的謀生之道。他們看到了巨大的成功。他們看到了巨大的流量。他們看到了令人難以置信的利率壓力，這讓他們想要做更多他們所做的事情。正如凱文所說，我們將簽署。我們不會在簽約方面達到頂峰，但我們正在接近。我們將獲得超過 100,000 個房間。再說一次，我認為這只是積極的信號。

Now what that's without China. China, actually, we will open more rooms in China this year, but we won't sign as many simply because they're -- with the way they're addressing COVID, with the lockdowns and the like have slowed development activity there. We have every confidence that when they reopen, it will pick up at a fast pace. But from a cultural point of view, the -- you really don't get signings done when things are closed. It's just not the way things happen, and it's been a little delayed.

現在沒有中國那是什麼。中國，實際上，我們今年將在中國開設更多房間，但我們不會簽署那麼多房間，僅僅因為他們解決 COVID 的方式，封鎖等減緩了那裡的發展活動。我們完全有信心，當它們重新開放時，它會以快速的速度回升。但從文化的角度來看，當事情結束時，你真的不會完成簽約。這不是事情發生的方式，而且有點延遲。

So I think the reality is when you -- with the demand in the rest of the world, when you get that part of the engine firing as well, the numbers are going to feel pretty good. And then it has to translate and I think that will translate over time as sort of the world settles down a bit and people have a little bit more visibility on what's going on. But the demand is there, market share, I shouldn't -- we're not going to be -- we're out of the business of describing exactly what our market share is for a whole bunch of competitive reasons. But I will say our market share is up, again, in a meaningful way, significantly above 2019 levels, significantly above where all our competitors are. And that's helping drive disproportionate interest, not only do people want to build more, but I think they want to build more with us because we're doing a better job in terms of driving share to help them drive profitability.

所以我認為現實是當你——隨著世界其他地方的需求，當你讓引擎的那部分也點火時，這些數字會感覺很好。然後它必須翻譯，我認為隨著時間的推移，隨著世界稍微穩定下來，人們對正在發生的事情有了更多的了解。但是需求就在那裡，市場份額，我不應該——我們不會——我們沒有能力準確地描述我們的市場份額是什麼，因為一大堆競爭原因。但我要說的是，我們的市場份額再次以一種有意義的方式上升，明顯高於 2019 年的水平，明顯高於我們所有競爭對手的水平。這有助於推動不成比例的興趣，人們不僅想要建造更多，而且我認為他們想與我們一起建造更多，因為我們在推動份額方面做得更好，以幫助他們提高盈利能力。

And then just quickly, are you guys announcing a new ad campaign with a different kind of focus. But I just wondering, you'd hear this, but is that essentially supported by -- or funded by owners? Or is there corporate implications as well for that...

然後很快，你們是否宣布了一個具有不同重點的新廣告活動。但我只是想知道，你會聽到這個，但這基本上是由業主支持或資助的嗎？或者是否也有企業影響...

That is funded by the system, which means essentially it's funded by owners. We have -- I mean, the grossly simplified explanation is people will either pay us a management fee or a franchise fee, and then we have corporate expenses and then they pay system fees for a bunch of things, marketing, technology, essentially system charges and those that we manage on a dollar -- on a not-for-profit basis, if you will, on their behalf. And all of the marketing dollars that we're talking about in our campaign come out of that. They're not corporate dollars. They're for the benefit of the system.

這是由系統資助的，這意味著它本質上是由所有者資助的。我們有 - 我的意思是，非常簡單的解釋是人們要么向我們支付管理費或特許經營費，然後我們有公司費用，然後他們為一堆東西支付系統費用，營銷，技術，基本上是系統費用以及我們以美元管理的那些——如果你願意的話，可以代表他們在非營利的基礎上進行管理。我們在競選活動中談論的所有營銷資金都來自於此。它們不是公司的美元。他們是為了系統的利益。

The next question is from Robin Farley from UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Robin Farley。

Just one follow-up on your comments on the demand from owners and kind of the record level of signings. Some others in the industry have talked about getting record signings, but that construction starts than matching the signings. And I know your rooms under construction currently are ahead of 2019, which is a great achievement. I'm wondering if you're seeing, though new construction starts, which would not impact your unit growth this year, but might have implications for '23 or '24. Just kind of what you're seeing on the construction start front?

只是對您對業主需求和簽約記錄水平的評論的一項後續行動。業內其他一些人已經談到獲得創紀錄的簽約，但建設開始而不是匹配簽約。而且我知道你們目前在建的房間提前於 2019 年，這是一個了不起的成就。我想知道您是否看到，儘管新建築開工，這不會影響您今年的單位增長，但可能會對 23 或 24 年產生影響。就像你在施工開始前看到的那樣？

Yes, happy to answer that, and then Kevin can jump in if he wants to add anything. First of all, just to be clear, I didn't say we're hitting records on signings. I said we're over 100,000. I think our peak was 116 -- 115, 116 , something like that. So we're getting closer and we're getting over 100 without as much help as we'd like from China. On the start side, we do believe starts will go down again this year, given all of the things that are going on in the world with supply chain, labor, financial markets, fears over the macro and recession. We think that they will have down. Having said that, our best estimates at this point, we've talked about this on prior calls, is that we will probably have hit the floor in starts in the U.S. last year. We think we'll be up modestly this year and probably hit the floor outside the U.S. this year.

是的，很高興回答這個問題，然後如果 Kevin 想要添加任何內容，他可以加入。首先，澄清一下，我並沒有說我們在引援上創造了記錄。我說我們超過100,000。我認為我們的峰值是 116 - 115, 116 ，類似的。所以我們越來越近了，我們得到了超過 100 個，但沒有中國提供我們想要的那麼多幫助。在開工方面，我們確實相信今年開工率將再次下降，考慮到全球正在發生的所有事情，包括供應鏈、勞動力、金融市場、對宏觀經濟和經濟衰退的擔憂。我們認為他們會有所下降。話雖如此，我們在這一點上的最佳估計，我們在之前的電話會議上已經討論過這個問題，我們可能會在去年在美國的首發中觸底。我們認為今年我們會適度上漲，並且今年可能會在美國以外的地區出現。

And our expectation is, given what I described before in terms of just where we are with RevPAR, where we are with margins, the owner desire to do things that all things being equal, we are of the mind that next year -- this year would be the low point in starts and that they would start moving back up. And that puts us in a position to do as we have been expecting and suggesting we would do, which is for the next couple of years, deliver in the mid-single-digit.

我們的期望是，考慮到我之前描述的 RevPAR 的情況，我們的利潤率，業主希望做的事情，所有的事情都是平等的，我們的想法是明年 - 今年將是開始的低點，他們將開始向上移動。這使我們能夠按照我們一直期待和建議的方式去做，即在接下來的幾年裡，以中個位數的速度交付。

Okay. Great. And then just one quick follow-up on the margin performance up 600 basis points. I think that you have guided before that you would hold on to [600] basis points of that. Do you think it's looking like you're at the higher end or maybe even above that at this point?

好的。偉大的。然後只需對保證金表現進行一次快速跟進即可上漲 600 個基點。我認為你之前已經指導過，你會堅持 [600] 個基點。您是否認為此時您看起來處於高端或什至更高？

We're doing better on margins, faster recovery, even better cost discipline than we assumed. So we're doing better on margins than we had suggested before.

我們在利潤率、更快的恢復、甚至比我們想像的更好的成本紀律方面做得更好。因此，我們的利潤率比我們之前建議的要好。

But I mean in terms of holding on to that into 2023?

但我的意思是要堅持到 2023 年？

Yes, actually, if you recall, we thought just because of the recovery in the real estate because at lower margins, it would help EBITDA growth, but it might just -- the arithmetic would hurt margins and we had thought that we might sort of be flat or even a little bit down as we got through that this year. Obviously, with the guidance we gave you, we're 100, 150 basis points above what we did last year, which was meaningfully above 19, which is getting us to the higher end of the $600 million. And we think we're going to be able to continue to drive margin growth from there.

是的，實際上，如果您還記得的話，我們認為只是因為房地產的複蘇，因為利潤率較低，這將有助於 EBITDA 增長，但它可能只是——算術會損害利潤率，我們曾認為我們可能會當我們今年度過難關時，保持平穩甚至略微下降。顯然，根據我們給你的指導，我們比去年高出 100 到 150 個基點，明顯高於 19，這使我們達到了 6 億美元的高端。我們認為我們將能夠從那裡繼續推動利潤率增長。

Yes, I think the last thing that Chris said is important in the sense that when we gave you that number, that was sort of just helping people model sort of a recovery and where it was going to go. It was not meant to be sort of a stopping point between the mix continuing to grow over time towards these non-RevPAR-driven fees and cost control, we think margins will continue to grow over time.

是的，我認為克里斯所說的最後一件事很重要，因為當我們給你這個數字時，這只是在幫助人們模擬某種複蘇以及它將去向何方。這並不意味著成為這些非 RevPAR 驅動的費用和成本控制隨著時間的推移持續增長的組合之間的停止點，我們認為利潤率將隨著時間的推移繼續增長。

Yes. On average, if you just do the math in your model, my guess is it will be similar to ours. It's a 50 to 100 basis point natural accretion in margin every year just based on the business model.

是的。平均而言，如果您只是在模型中進行數學運算，我猜它會與我們的相似。僅基於商業模式，每年的利潤自然增長 50 到 100 個基點。

The next question is from Richard Clarke from Bernstein.

下一個問題來自 Bernstein 的 Richard Clarke。

Just maybe sort of unpicking it a bit too much here. But if I look at your sort of Q3 and then your full year RevPAR guidance and maybe some of your commentary, it looks to me you're sort of saying that Q3 is going to be better than Q2. And then maybe Q4 will be a slight pullback that you're only expecting leisure demand to sort of run through the fall. And obviously, with group being stronger in Q4, are you expecting some elements maybe just to step back a little bit in Q4? Or am I reading a little bit too much into your guidance there?

只是在這裡可能有點過多地取消它。但是，如果我看一下您的第三季度，然後是您的全年 RevPAR 指導，也許還有您的一些評論，在我看來，您是在說第三季度會好於第二季度。然後也許第四季度會出現小幅回調，你只預計休閒需求會在秋季結束。很明顯，隨著第四季度的小組變得更強大，你是否期望一些元素可能會在第四季度稍微退後一點？還是我對你的指導讀得太多了？

I think you're reading a little too much into it. I think at this point, we sort of view the second half of the year, third and fourth quarter in a very similar way. Obviously, the third quarter is a much, much bigger, more important quarter in the sense of all forms of travel. So you have sort of seasonal things going on. But in terms of the basic breakdown of what we think and performance of the segments, we don't -- we are not forecasting any difference, any meaningful difference.

我覺得你讀得太多了。我認為在這一點上，我們對下半年、第三季度和第四季度的看法非常相似。顯然，就所有形式的旅行而言，第三季度是一個更大、更大、更重要的季度。所以你有一些季節性的事情正在發生。但就我們的想法和細分市場表現的基本細分而言，我們沒有——我們沒有預測任何差異，任何有意義的差異。

And maybe just a quick follow-up to the last question. I think at the full year results, you specifically sort of guided you're hoping for 66,000 construction starts this year. I don't think you gave a number in response to that. Is that still the -- what you're looking to get to this year?

也許只是對最後一個問題的快速跟進。我認為在全年結果中，您特別指導您希望今年開工 66,000 座。我認為你沒有給出一個數字來回應這個問題。這仍然是你今年想要達到的目標嗎？

No. I think we had said that in the past in -- on prior calls, I think Chris said we expect starts could be down a little bit this year. There's a lot of year left. So we're not sure exactly where it's going to play out, but probably be a little bit less than that.

不。我想我們過去曾說過——在之前的電話會議上，我認為克里斯說我們預計今年的開工率可能會有所下降。還有很多年。所以我們不確定它將在哪裡發揮作用，但可能會比這少一點。

Next question is from Chad Beynon with Macquarie.

下一個問題來自麥格理的 Chad Beynon。

When you think about some of the restrictions with flight capacity that we hear about in the U.S. and in Europe, not being able to keep up with consumer demand, do you believe any of this presents a risk to any parts of your recovery? Or is it negligible and just more of kind of a sound bite for the airline industry?

當您考慮到我們在美國和歐洲聽到的一些航班容量限制，無法跟上消費者需求時，您是否認為這會對您的複甦的任何部分構成風險？或者它對航空業來說是微不足道的，更像是一種合理的說法？

We've been watching that, as you would guess, really carefully and studying our data along with the airline data, and we haven't seen any real impact. We just can't find it. So we feel pretty good about it. I mean, talking to the -- not just listening, but I know most of the CEOs in the airline space and talking to them. I think they are making pretty darn good progress in terms of getting capacity back, getting the teams that they need, in terms of pilots, flight attendants, maintenance crew, getting them trained.

正如你猜想的那樣，我們一直在非常仔細地觀察這一點，並將我們的數據與航空公司數據一起研究，但我們沒有看到任何真正的影響。我們只是找不到它。所以我們對此感覺很好。我的意思是，與他們交談——不僅僅是傾聽，而且我認識航空公司領域的大多數 CEO，並與他們交談。我認為他們在恢復能力方面取得了相當不錯的進展，讓他們需要的團隊，在飛行員、空乘人員、維修人員方面，讓他們接受培訓。

So I mean it's not done by any means, but I think every day, it gets a little better. And so I think we feel like we'll be fine. I mean if you look at the patterns like in the second quarter, I was actually surprised, and it's directional. I can't -- I'm not going to tell you like we have perfect data on this. But it's pretty good directional and it's consistent with what -- the same way we would have analyzed it pre-COVID.

所以我的意思是它沒有以任何方式完成，但我認為每一天，它都會變得更好一點。所以我認為我們覺得我們會沒事的。我的意思是，如果你看一下第二季度的模式，我真的很驚訝，而且它是有方向的。我不能——我不會告訴你我們有這方面的完美數據。但它的方向性非常好，並且與我們在 COVID 之前分析它的方式一致。

In a normal world, like 60% of our business was fly to and 40% of it was drive to. In the second quarter, we think it was 2/3 drive to, 1/3 fly to. So part of what's going on is people are with restricted capacity, they're just driving more, they're driving longer distances. But -- and they're staying in a tighter -- they may be driving further, but they're not going across the country or whatever. It's more regional and local business, but that works. So at the moment, while the airlines are sort of working their issues out, I think people are acting sort of accordingly in terms of how they're getting places. And we're not seeing any impact. We don't -- talking to customers, we don't think that it's going to impair the rest of the year.

在一個正常的世界裡，我們 60% 的業務是飛往，其中 40% 是開車去。在第二季度，我們認為是 2/3 驅動到，1/3 飛到。因此，部分原因是人們的能力有限，他們只是開得更多，開得更遠。但是——而且他們會更嚴格——他們可能會走得更遠，但他們不會穿越全國或其他任何地方。這是更多的區域和本地業務，但這是有效的。所以目前，雖然航空公司正在解決他們的問題，但我認為人們在如何獲得位置方面採取了相應的行動。我們沒有看到任何影響。我們不 - 與客戶交談，我們認為這不會影響今年餘下的時間。

And the next question is from Vince Ciepiel with Cleveland Research Company.

下一個問題來自克利夫蘭研究公司的 Vince Ciepiel。

Great. I'm curious how you're thinking about planning the business over the course of the next 12 months. It clearly sounds like the trend lines in corporate and group are getting better. Obviously, you believe leisure is continuing to fetch healthy ADRs and remain pretty stable at high levels. As you think about like an efficient mix within those 3 buckets of demand, how are you approaching that? And how are you handling pricing out the corporate and the group business as it comes back?

偉大的。我很好奇您是如何考慮在未來 12 個月內規劃業務的。顯然，聽起來企業和集團的趨勢線正在變得更好。顯然，您認為休閒活動繼續獲得健康的 ADR，並在高水平上保持相當穩定。當您考慮在這 3 個需求桶中進行有效組合時，您是如何處理的？當公司和集團業務回歸時，您如何處理定價？

Yes. I mean the truth is we're doing it with a lot of flexibility because while we have a belief which we've articulated in a bunch of different ways on this call, we know that we may not be perfectly right. So as we, I think, proven during COVID, our teams, including our sales teams, our commercial teams are unbelievably quick on their feet. We retooled everything when we had during COVID. We've retooled a dozen times through COVID as demand patterns have sort of been normalizing.

是的。我的意思是事實是我們正在以很大的靈活性來做這件事，因為雖然我們有一個信念，我們在這次電話會議上以多種不同的方式表達了這一信念，但我們知道我們可能並不完全正確。因此，我認為，正如我們在 COVID 期間所證明的那樣，我們的團隊，包括我們的銷售團隊，我們的商業團隊都以令人難以置信的速度站穩了腳跟。我們在 COVID 期間重新調整了一切。隨著需求模式逐漸正常化，我們已經通過 COVID 進行了十幾次重組。

So I think what we will be set up for and then ready to pivot is a world that I described, which is a world that is getting reasonably close to pre-COVID normalization. I mean just like in Q2, by way of example, if you look at the segments compared to 2019, -- in 2019, 55% of our overall system revenue came from business transient, 25% from leisure transient and 20% from group. If you look at the depths of COVID, it probably to the most extreme times, it went to like 35% business, 55% leisure and 10% group.

因此，我認為我們將為之做好準備並準備轉向的是我所描述的一個世界，這個世界正在相當接近於 COVID 之前的正常化。我的意思是，就像在第二季度一樣，舉例來說，如果你看一下與 2019 年相比的細分市場——在 2019 年，我們整體系統收入的 55% 來自業務瞬態，25% 來自休閒瞬態，20% 來自團體。如果你看看 COVID 的深度，它可能到了最極端的時代，它變成了 35% 的商業、55% 的休閒和 10% 的團體。

In the second quarter, it was almost 50% business transient. It was like 34%, 35% leisure and 16% or 17% group. So as I said before, we've sort of expected that as much as everybody wants to think everything is different. We sort of have been planning throughout and taking it in steps for a normalization to maybe not be exactly where we were pre-pandemic, but more looking like that than where we were, and that's what's happening. And so that's what we'll be set up for.

在第二季度，這幾乎是 50% 的業務瞬態。這就像 34%、35% 的休閒和 16% 或 17% 的團體。所以正如我之前所說，我們有點期待每個人都想認為一切都不同。我們自始至終都在計劃並逐步實現正常化，可能不完全是我們在大流行前所處的位置，但看起來比我們所處的位置更像那樣，這就是正在發生的事情。這就是我們要做的。

But as I said, the key here always is flexibility and be prepared to pivot. On the margin, I do think we will continue to have higher levels of leisure than we had pre-pandemic. My guess is we will have potentially a surge in group just because of so much pent-up demand as well. And so what are we doing? We're making sure we're staying super aggressive on leisure strategies, making sure that we're staying super aggressive on -- with our group sales team, and they were all over every opportunity and that we are focused on that. And then on the business transient side, while we love our big corporates, and we continue to work with them, we've had a lot of success with the SMBs. In the end, we think that when we normalize, we will have lower big corporates and higher SMB at a higher rate. And so we have deployed accordingly in our sales teams across the board to make sure that we're working those SMB accounts that we're covering a lot more of those in a very thoughtful way to continue to build that business.

但正如我所說，這裡的關鍵始終是靈活性並準備好轉向。在邊際上，我確實認為我們將繼續擁有比大流行前更高的休閒水平。我的猜測是，由於被壓抑的需求如此之多，我們的團隊可能會激增。那麼我們在做什麼呢？我們確保我們在休閒策略上保持超級積極進取，確保我們保持超級積極進取 - 與我們的集團銷售團隊一起，他們全力以赴，我們專注於這一點。然後在業務過渡方面，雖然我們熱愛我們的大公司，並且我們繼續與他們合作，但我們在中小企業方面取得了很多成功。最後，我們認為當我們正常化時，我們將以更高的速度擁有更低的大企業和更高的 SMB。因此，我們已經在我們的銷售團隊中進行了相應的部署，以確保我們正在處理那些我們正在以一種非常周到的方式覆蓋更多的 SMB 賬戶，以繼續建立該業務。

So those will -- at a high level, that's sort of when we are sitting at this table, talking about how we're going to deploy over the next 12 months, that's how we're thinking about it. But if the world pivots, we'll pivot very quickly with it. But my guess is that's how the world is going to play out. A little bit more leisure, a lot more group, a bunch more business transient and for us with a real focus on the SMBs.

所以那些將 - 在高層次上，當我們坐在這張桌子前，談論我們將如何在未來 12 個月內進行部署時，這就是我們正在考慮的方式。但是，如果世界轉動，我們將很快隨之轉動。但我的猜測是，這就是世界的發展方式。更多的休閒，更多的團體，更多的商業短暫性，對我們來說，真正關注中小型企業。

That's some helpful high-level color there. And maybe just a little bit more specifically on that larger corporate, I would imagine a lot of that falls under the corporate negotiated rates. Can you remind us where those have been through COVID, are they flattish with '19 levels...

那是一些有用的高級顏色。也許只是更具體地針對那個更大的公司，我想其中很多都屬於公司協商的利率。你能提醒我們那些經歷過 COVID 的地方嗎？他們是否與 '19 級別持平......

They've been almost -- all of our large corporate clients during COVID agreed to keep rates flat to 2019 levels. And now in those negotiations, again, keeping it in perspective, it's like 7% of the business right now, maybe 7% and a little bit of change. So like just keep that in perspective. But I think what we're indicating is probably mid-single digit kind of increases for those accounts.

在 COVID 期間，我們幾乎所有的大型企業客戶都同意將費率保持在 2019 年的水平。現在在這些談判中，再一次，保持正確的觀點，這就像現在業務的 7%，也許是 7%，還有一點點變化。所以就像保持觀點一樣。但我認為我們所表明的可能是這些賬戶的中個位數增長。

And again, in a lot of hotels -- the reason we want that, even though SMB is maybe at a higher rate, as it provides a base of business, just like we put a basic group business on the book. It's another way to put a base of business on. So it's hotel -- it will be hotel by hotel. There'll be some hotels that won't take any of it, some hotels will take some of it because they need the base. But I would suspect, while it's way early to judge, it sort of mid-single digit, the goals would be to have dynamic pricing with all those accounts and that the end result will be somewhere in the mid-single digits. And that when we're all said and done, it will be 6% to 8% of the business where it used to be 10%.

再說一次，在很多酒店中——我們想要這樣的原因，即使 SMB 的價格可能更高，因為它提供了業務基礎，就像我們將基本的集團業務放在書上一樣。這是建立業務基礎的另一種方式。所以它是酒店——它將是一個酒店一個酒店。會有一些酒店不接受，一些酒店會接受一些，因為他們需要基地。但我懷疑，雖然現在判斷還為時過早，但它有點中個位數，目標是對所有這些帳戶進行動態定價，最終結果將在中個位數的某個地方。而且，當我們都說完了，這將是過去 10% 的業務的 6% 到 8%。

And the next question will be from Patrick Scholes from Truist Securities.

下一個問題將來自 Truist Securities 的 Patrick Scholes。

Kind of following up on that question on corporate rates. We're starting to get into negotiation season. And I know you'd like to tell me if you're going to see corporate rates up 50% next year. But how do you think about group and corporate rates increasing next year as it relates to negotiated rates. And I keep that in mind with inflation next year, probably 20% higher than where it was in 2019.

有點跟進關於公司費率的問題。我們開始進入談判季節。我知道你想告訴我明年你是否會看到公司利率上漲 50%。但是，您如何看待明年團體和公司費率與協商費率相關的上漲。我牢記這一點，明年的通脹可能比 2019 年高出 20%。

Yes. I mean -- yes, it's hard to say, and we're not here giving guidance on next year. There's a long way here and there, and there's a lot of uncertainty in the world. But I mean, probably the best I give you a little bit of sense, although we're not in those negotiations in earnest yet with the big corporates, where that would be. I think the way we would think about unmanaged business, transient business would be somewhere in the 5% to 10% range to keep pace with inflation. And I think we would think about the group -- our group bookings the same way. In fact, all the group bookings that like we were doing, generally new group bookings that we did in the second quarter for '23, we're in the high single-digit rate increases, I mean, as a data point.

是的。我的意思是——是的，這很難說，而且我們不會在這里為明年提供指導。這里和那裡有很長的路要走，世界上有很多不確定性。但我的意思是，可能是我給你一點感覺的最好的，雖然我們還沒有與大公司進行認真的談判，那將是什麼。我認為我們對非託管業務、臨時業務的思考方式將在 5% 到 10% 的範圍內，以跟上通貨膨脹的步伐。而且我認為我們會考慮團體 - 我們的團體預訂方式相同。事實上，像我們所做的所有團體預訂，通常是我們在 23 年第二季度所做的新團體預訂，我的意思是，作為數據點，我們處於高個位數的增長率。

Thoughts on Airbnb supply. Certainly, we're seeing some of those really hot leisure markets, whether it's Vail, Aspen, Miami, a ton of Airbnb supply with everybody realizing how high the room rates are that they're going to run out their units. So what sort of impact are you seeing, if any, in those markets?

關於 Airbnb 供應的想法。當然，我們看到了一些真正炙手可熱的休閒市場，無論是韋爾、阿斯彭、邁阿密，Airbnb 的大量供應，每個人都意識到他們將用完他們的單位的房價有多高。那麼，您在這些市場中看到了什麼樣的影響（如果有的話）？

None. Now in some of those markets, we may not be in them. But as you can see from the numbers that we're posting at least what we're forecasting, what we're seeing in booking patterns, we're not seeing any impact. I mean, I think what they do is they serve a certain customer need, and we serve another customer need. I've said it for a long time, there's plenty of room for us to coexist given what we're delivering is very different, and it's generally for a different type of stay occasion. So we are not -- but there is 0 discernible impact from any Airbnb supply.

沒有任何。現在在其中一些市場中，我們可能不在其中。但正如您從我們發布的數字中看到的那樣，至少我們正在預測，我們在預訂模式中看到的，我們沒有看到任何影響。我的意思是，我認為他們所做的是他們滿足特定的客戶需求，而我們滿足另一個客戶的需求。我已經說過很長時間了，鑑於我們提供的內容非常不同，我們有很大的共存空間，而且通常用於不同類型的住宿場合。所以我們不是——但任何 Airbnb 供應的明顯影響都是 0。

And the next question is from Duane Pfennigwerth from Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Duane Pfennigwerth。

Maybe a short term and a longer term. Short term, which international geographies surprised you the most in 2Q? And then longer term, how do you think about the pacing of China reopened in 2023 and beyond? What is your planning assumption at this point?

可能是短期的，也可能是長期的。短期來看，第二季度哪些國際地區最讓您感到驚訝？從長遠來看，您如何看待中國在 2023 年及以後重新開放的步伐？您此時的計劃假設是什麼？

Yes. I'll offer an answer, maybe Kevin will come over the top for a different one. But I would say Europe was the big surprise for me. Europe's on fire. Huge surge in business. I mean the big cities, London, everything is racing this summer in Q2 and they're racing in Q3. So that's been -- and Europe is now trending above '19. I think for the full year, Europe will be not just through the second half, Europe was above in Q2.

是的。我會提供一個答案，也許凱文會為不同的答案而脫穎而出。但我想說歐洲對我來說是個大驚喜。歐洲火了。業務量大增。我的意思是大城市，倫敦，今年夏天第二季度一切都在比賽，他們在第三季度比賽。就是這樣——歐洲現在的趨勢是 19 年以上。我認為全年，歐洲將不僅僅是下半年，歐洲在第二季度高於。

I think Europe will be ahead for the full year of 2019 in terms of RevPAR. So that's been a pleasant surprise. In China, the honest answer is we don't know. I would have thought -- I mean, we are making progress. Kevin gave the data points. I mean we moved from in the 30s to 60, and I think we're probably above that now. You have things ebbing and flowing. I saw that this morning, they're locking down part of Wuhan, 1 million people. So we're hopeful by the -- and I've been saying this and I've been consistent by the time they have the Party Congress, which is in October that they're at a different place. I think that is -- as we talk to our teams there, I think there is a lot of belief that as we get into the fall, things are going to normalize rapidly there.

我認為就 RevPAR 而言，歐洲將在 2019 年全年領先。所以這是一個驚喜。在中國，誠實的答案是我們不知道。我會想——我的意思是，我們正在取得進展。凱文給出了數據點。我的意思是我們從 30 年代到 60 年代，我認為我們現在可能已經超過了這個水平。你有潮起潮落的事情。我今天早上看到，他們正在封鎖武漢的部分地區，100萬人。因此，我們對此抱有希望——我一直這麼說，到他們召開黨代表大會時，我一直保持一致，那是在 10 月份，他們在不同的地方。我認為那是 - 當我們與那裡的團隊交談時，我認為有很多人相信，隨著我們進入秋季，那裡的事情將迅速恢復正常。

I do think it will be a while, and what do I know for the record, for anybody listening, I do think it will be a while before we have a ton of Chinese travelers traveling internationally or any of us are going to China. I'm hopeful that, that would be next year. I haven't been since the end of 2019, and I'm dying to go. But the reality is, as we saw in the early recovery of COVID where they led the world, when China opens up, China -- in China, for China, just Chinese travelers moving around China, the business can boom in a very big way because they're not leaving, they're staying and they love to travel within China and see the destinations there.

我確實認為這需要一段時間，而且我知道的記錄是什麼，對於任何傾聽的人來說，我確實認為在我們有大量的中國遊客出國旅行或我們中的任何一個人去中國之前還需要一段時間。我希望，那將是明年。自 2019 年底以來我沒有去過，我很想去。但現實是，正如我們在他們引領世界的 COVID 早期復蘇中看到的那樣，當中國開放時，中國——在中國，對於中國來說，只是在中國各地旅行的中國遊客，業務可能會以非常大的方式蓬勃發展因為他們不會離開，他們會留下來，他們喜歡在中國旅行，看看那裡的目的地。

So I think as we get into October and the rest of the year, I would hope and I do think, and our teams think that you're going to see a lot of activity in terms of what's going on in opening and travel within China. And I do think that will then start to restart in a big way the development engine that wants to go and people want to do it, it's just -- it's been kind of hard to get it chugging again.

所以我認為隨著我們進入 10 月和今年餘下的時間，我希望並且我確實認為，我們的團隊認為你會看到很多關於在中國開放和旅行方面的活動.而且我確實認為這將開始以一種很大的方式重新啟動想要去的開發引擎並且人們想要這樣做，只是 - 讓它再次開始變得有點困難。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the call back over to Chris Nassetta for any additional or closing remarks.

女士們，先生們，我們的問答環節到此結束。我現在想將電話轉回給 Chris Nassetta，以獲取任何補充或結束語。

As always, we appreciate you guys taking an hour out of your life to join us. We're obviously really pleased with the results in the second quarter. We see the recovery not just happening but happening at an even faster pace than we thought. We know the world's got a lot going on. But as I said, in a bunch of different ways, as did Kevin, we feel quite good. We are cautiously optimistic. We feel quite good about the momentum we have and the win we have in our sales through the rest of this year and into the first part of next year. And we look forward to giving you an update after we finish the third quarter.

與往常一樣，我們感謝你們抽出一個小時的時間加入我們。我們顯然對第二季度的結果感到非常滿意。我們看到復蘇不僅正在發生，而且正在以比我們想像的更快的速度發生。我們知道世界上發生了很多事情。但正如我所說，在很多不同的方面，就像凱文一樣，我們感覺很好。我們持謹慎樂觀的態度。我們對今年剩餘時間和明年上半年的銷售勢頭以及我們在銷售方面取得的勝利感到非常滿意。我們期待在第三季度結束後為您提供更新。

Thanks, and have a great day.

謝謝，祝你有美好的一天。

And thank you, sir. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

謝謝你，先生。會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。