希爾頓酒店 (HLT) 2021 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Hilton Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call.

早上好，歡迎參加希爾頓 2021 年第三季度收益電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

（操作員說明）請注意，此事件正在記錄中。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Jill Slattery, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Development.

我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係和企業發展高級副總裁 Jill Slattery。

You may begin.

你可以開始了。

Thank you, Chad.

謝謝你，乍得。

Welcome to Hilton's Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Call.

歡迎參加希爾頓 2021 年第三季度財報電話會議。

Before we begin, we would like to remind you that our discussions this morning will include forward-looking statements.

在開始之前，我們想提醒您，我們今天上午的討論將包括前瞻性陳述。

Actual results could differ materially from those indicated in the forward-looking statements, and forward-looking statements made today speak only to our expectations as of today.

實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中的結果大相徑庭，今天做出的前瞻性陳述僅代表我們今天的預期。

We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise these statements.

我們不承擔公開更新或修改這些聲明的義務。

For a discussion of some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ, please see the Risk Factors section of our most recently filed Form 10-K.

有關可能導致實際結果不同的一些因素的討論，請參閱我們最近提交的 10-K 表的風險因素部分。

In addition, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures on this call.

此外，我們將在本次電話會議上參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標。

You can find reconciliations of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures discussed in today's call in our earnings press release and on our website at ir.hilton.com.

您可以在我們的收益新聞稿和我們的網站 ir.hilton.com 上找到今天電話會議中討論的非 GAAP 與 GAAP 財務指標的對賬。

This morning, Chris Nassetta, our President and Chief Executive Officer, will provide an overview of the current operating environment.

今天上午，我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Chris Nassetta 將概述當前的運營環境。

Kevin Jacobs, our Chief Financial Officer and President, Global Development, will then review our third quarter results.

我們的首席財務官兼全球發展總裁凱文·雅各布斯隨後將審查我們的第三季度業績。

Following their remarks, we'll be happy to take your questions.

在他們的發言之後，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

With that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Chris.

有了這個，我很高興將電話轉給克里斯。

Thank you, Jill.

謝謝你，吉爾。

Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us today.

大家早上好，感謝您今天加入我們。

We are pleased to report another quarter of very solid results that demonstrate continued recovery and the resiliency of our business model.

我們很高興地報告另一個季度的非常穩健的業績，這些業績證明了我們業務模式的持續復甦和彈性。

Increases in vaccination rates and consumer spending, coupled with improving business activity, continued to drive solid travel demand throughout the summer and into the fall.

疫苗接種率和消費者支出的增加，加上商業活動的改善，在整個夏季和秋季繼續推動強勁的旅行需求。

As global borders reopen and the travel environment recovers, we remain extremely encouraged by people's desire to travel and connect more than ever before.

隨著全球邊界的重新開放和旅行環境的恢復，人們比以往任何時候都更渴望旅行和聯繫的願望讓我們感到非常鼓舞。

In the third quarter, system-wide RevPAR grew 99% year-over-year.

第三季度，全系統 RevPAR 同比增長 99%。

Compared to 2019, RevPAR was down roughly 19%, improving 17 percentage points versus the second quarter, with system-wide rates down just 2.5% versus 2019.

與 2019 年相比，RevPAR 下降了約 19%，比第二季度提高了 17 個百分點，全系統費率與 2019 年相比僅下降了 2.5%。

Adjusted EBITDA totaled approximately $519 million, up 132% year-over-year and down 14% versus 2019.

調整後的 EBITDA 總額約為 5.19 億美元，同比增長 132%，與 2019 年相比下降 14%。

Performance was primarily driven by strong leisure trends with leisure room nights roughly in line with 2019 level, with leisure rates exceeding 2019 levels.

業績主要受強勁的休閒趨勢推動，休閒間夜數大致與 2019 年水平一致，休閒率超過 2019 年水平。

Business travel continued to gain momentum with midweek occupancy and rates improving meaningfully versus the second quarter.

與第二季度相比，周中入住率和費率顯著提高，商務旅行繼續保持增長勢頭。

In the quarter, business transient room nights were roughly 75% of prior peak levels.

本季度，商務臨時客房夜數約為之前峰值水平的 75%。

Group continued to lag but showed significant sequential improvement versus the second quarter, boosted by strength in social events.

集團繼續落後，但與第二季度相比表現出顯著的連續改善，這得益於社交活動的強勁增長。

For the quarter, group RevPAR was approximately 60% of 2019 levels, improving 21 percentage points from the second quarter.

本季度，集團 RevPAR 約為 2019 年水平的 60%，比第二季度提高了 21 個百分點。

Overall system-wide RevPAR versus 2019 peaked in July at 85% with rates just shy of prior peaks.

與 2019 年相比，整個系統範圍的 RevPAR 在 7 月份達到了 85% 的峰值，略低於之前的峰值。

As expected, recovery slowed modestly later in the quarter due to typical seasonality and customer mix shift, but overall trends remained solid.

正如預期的那樣，由於典型的季節性和客戶組合的變化，本季度後期復蘇略有放緩，但總體趨勢仍然穩健。

Both August and September RevPAR achieved roughly 80% of 2019 levels, driven by continued strength in leisure and upticks in business travel post-Labor Day as offices and schools reopen.

8 月和 9 月的 RevPAR 均達到了 2019 年水平的大約 80%，這是由於隨著辦公室和學校的重新開放，勞動節後休閒活動的持續增長和商務旅行的增加。

These trends improved modestly into October with month-to-date RevPAR at approximately 84% of 2019 levels and rates in the U.S. nearly back to prior peaks.

這些趨勢在 10 月份略有改善，本月至今 RevPAR 約為 2019 年水平的 84%，美國的比率幾乎回到了之前的峰值。

Roughly 40% of system-wide hotels have exceeded 2019 RevPAR levels in October month-to-date.

10 月至今，大約 40% 的全系統酒店已超過 2019 年 RevPAR 水平。

Additionally, bookings for all future periods are just 8% below 2019.

此外，所有未來期間的預訂量僅比 2019 年低 8%。

With loosening travel restrictions and strong nonresidential fixed investment forecast, we remain optimistic for future travel demand.

隨著旅行限制的放鬆和強勁的非住宅固定投資預測，我們對未來的旅行需求保持樂觀。

TSA reported third quarter travel numbers were nearly 80% of 2019 with demand picking up further following the announcements of the U.S. border reopening and the lift of the international travel ban for vaccinated travelers.

TSA 報告稱，第三季度的旅行人數接近 2019 年的 80%，隨著美國邊境重新開放和取消對已接種疫苗的旅行者的國際旅行禁令的宣布，需求進一步回升。

Additionally, studies show that nearly 70% of U.S. businesses are back on the road, up 28 points from the end of the second quarter.

此外，研究表明，近 70% 的美國企業已重回正軌，比第二季度末增加了 28 個百分點。

With roughly 80% of our typical corporate mix coming from small- and medium-sized businesses and with the lagging recovery of larger corporate travel, we've taken the opportunity to continue our work from before COVID to further increase our focus on this segment of demand.

由於我們大約 80% 的典型企業組合來自中小型企業，而且大型企業旅行的複蘇滯後，我們藉此機會從 COVID 之前繼續我們的工作，以進一步增加我們對這一領域的關注要求。

This demand is higher rated, the more resilient -- resilient, which has helped us recover more quickly in business transient and should drive rate compression in the future as larger corporate travel picks up.

這種需求的評級更高，更具彈性 - 彈性，這有助於我們在業務瞬態中更快地恢復，並且隨著更大的商務旅行回升，未來應該會推動費率壓縮。

On the group side, our position for the rest of the year remains fairly steady with forward booking sentiment improving as variant concerns taper.

在集團方面，我們在今年餘下時間的頭寸仍然相當穩定，隨著變體擔憂逐漸減少，遠期預訂情緒有所改善。

Additionally, the recent reopenings of some of our large urban properties, like the New York Hilton Midtown, increased our confidence in our positioning as group recovers.

此外，最近我們一些大型城市物業（例如紐約中城希爾頓酒店）的重新開業，增強了我們對集團在復蘇時的定位的信心。

Turning to development.

轉向發展。

We added nearly 100 hotels and 15,000 rooms across all major regions and delivered strong net unit growth of 6.6% in the third quarter.

我們在所有主要地區增加了近 100 家酒店和 15,000 間客房，並在第三季度實現了 6.6% 的強勁淨單位增長。

Conversions represented roughly 1/3 of openings.

轉換約佔空缺的 1/3。

Year-to-date, we've added more than 42,000 net rooms globally, higher than all our major branded competitors.

年初至今，我們在全球新增了超過 42,000 間淨客房，高於我們所有主要品牌競爭對手。

Our performance reflects the success of our disciplined growth strategy, the strength of our brands, network effect and commercial engines across the world.

我們的業績反映了我們嚴格的增長戰略的成功、我們的品牌實力、網絡效應和全球商業引擎。

It also illustrates our increasing confidence in a strong recovery in global tourism in the months and years to come.

這也表明我們對未來數月乃至數年全球旅遊業強勁復甦的信心日益增強。

During the quarter, we launched our large-scale franchise model in China, enabling independent owners to explore franchising opportunities with our Hilton Garden Inn brand with a prototype developed specifically for the Chinese market.

本季度，我們在中國推出了大規模的特許經營模式，使獨立業主能夠利用我們的希爾頓花園酒店品牌探索特許經營機會，並採用專為中國市場開發的原型。

To date, we have signed more than 100 deals to develop Hilton Garden properties in China, strengthening our confidence in the long-term growth of our focused service brands and our ability to cater to a growing middle class.

迄今為止，我們已經簽署了 100 多項在中國開發希爾頓花園酒店的交易，增強了我們對我們專注的服務品牌的長期增長以及我們迎合不斷增長的中產階級的能力的信心。

Following our recently announced exclusive license agreement with Country Garden, we were thrilled to open our first Home2 Suites in China with plans to grow to more than 1,000 properties.

繼我們最近宣布與碧桂園達成獨家許可協議後，我們很高興在中國開設了我們的第一家 Home2 Suites，併計劃發展到 1,000 多家。

We look forward to leveraging our partnership to capture the rapidly growing demand for mid-scale hotels in China.

我們期待利用我們的合作夥伴關係來滿足中國對中檔酒店快速增長的需求。

We also celebrated the opening of our 500th Home2 Suites following the brand's launch just 10 years ago, making it one of the fastest-growing brands in industry history and boasting the industry's largest pipeline in North America with more than 400 hotels in development.

在 10 年前品牌推出後，我們還慶祝了第 500 間 Home2 套房的開業，使其成為行業歷史上發展最快的品牌之一，並擁有北美行業最大的在建酒店，有 400 多家酒店正在開發中。

Our luxury and lifestyle footprints also continued to expand globally with the debut of the Canopy by Hilton in Spain and the highly anticipated opening of the Mango House LXR in the Seychelles.

隨著希爾頓 Canopy 在西班牙的首次亮相以及備受期待的 Mango House LXR 在塞舌爾的開業，我們的奢華和生活方式足跡也繼續在全球擴張。

Marking another important milestone in its global expansion, LXR celebrated its debut in Asia Pacific with the opening of the ROKU KYOTO.

LXR 標誌著其全球擴張的另一個重要里程碑，隨著 ROKU KYOTO 的開業慶祝其在亞太地區的首次亮相。

In the quarter, we signed nearly 24,000 rooms, up approximately 40% year-over-year, driven by strength in the Americas and Asia Pacific regions.

本季度，在美洲和亞太地區實力的推動下，我們簽約了近 24,000 間客房，同比增長約 40%。

Driving our positive momentum in luxury, we announced the signing of the Conrad Los Angeles, the brand's first property in California.

推動我們在奢侈品方面的積極勢頭，我們宣布簽約洛杉磯康萊德酒店，這是該品牌在加州的第一家酒店。

The 300-room hotel is expected to open in 2022 as part of The Grand LA mixed-use development.

這家擁有 300 間客房的酒店預計將於 2022 年開業，作為 The Grand LA 綜合開發項目的一部分。

With approximately 404,000 rooms in development, more than half of which are under construction, we expect positive development trends to continue, driven by both new development and conversion opportunities.

約有 404,000 間客房正在開發中，其中一半以上正在建設中，我們預計在新的開發和轉換機會的推動下，積極的發展趨勢將持續下去。

For the full year, we expect net unit growth in the 5% to 5.5% range, and we continue to expect mid-single-digit growth for the next several years.

對於全年，我們預計淨單位增長率在 5% 至 5.5% 範圍內，我們繼續預計未來幾年將實現中個位數增長。

For our guests, flexibility has always been important, but the pandemic has made choice and control even more critical.

對於我們的客人來說，靈活性一直很重要，但大流行使選擇和控制變得更加關鍵。

We were excited to launch several new commercial programs and loyalty extensions, including the launch of Digital Key Share, a first for a major hospitality company.

我們很高興推出幾個新的商業計劃和忠誠度擴展，包括推出 Digital Key Share，這是一家大型酒店公司的首創。

This feature allows more than one guest to have access to their room's digital key.

此功能允許不止一位客人訪問他們房間的數字鑰匙。

Additional technology enhancements have enabled our elite Honors members to begin enjoying automatic room upgrades.

額外的技術改進使我們的精英榮譽會員開始享受自動房間升級。

Gold and Diamond members may be notified of a complementary upgrade prior to arrival, enabling guests to choose their upgraded room directly by using the Hilton Honors app.

金卡和鑽石卡會員可能會在抵達前收到免費升級通知，讓客人可以使用希爾頓榮譽客會應用程序直接選擇升級後的客房。

We continue to focus on new opportunities to further engage our 123 million Honors members and are thrilled to see engagement is nearly back to 2019 levels.

我們繼續關注新的機會，以進一步吸引我們 1.23 億榮譽會員，並且很高興看到參與度幾乎回到 2019 年的水平。

In the quarter, membership grew 11% year-over-year.

本季度，會員人數同比增長 11%。

Honors members accounted for 59% of occupancy with the U.S. at 66%, just 2 points below 2019 levels.

榮譽會員占美國入住率的 59%，為 66%，僅比 2019 年水平低 2 個百分點。

During the pandemic, approximately 23 million U.S. households brought home a new pet, including my own.

在大流行期間，大約 2300 萬美國家庭帶回了一隻新寵物，包括我自己的。

And like so many others, my family loves traveling with our new dog, Miller.

和許多其他人一樣，我的家人喜歡和我們的新狗米勒一起旅行。

In the coming months, Homewood Suites will join Home2 in becoming 100% pet-friendly in the U.S. with plans for all limited service brands to be pet-friendly by the first quarter of next year.

在接下來的幾個月裡，Homewood Suites 將加入 Home2，在美國實現 100% 的寵物友好，併計劃在明年第一季度之前讓所有有限服務品牌都對寵物友好。

And thanks to our exciting partnership with Mars Petcare, we're offering new pet-focused programming and benefits.

由於我們與 Mars Petcare 的激動人心的合作夥伴關係，我們正在提供以寵物為中心的新計劃和福利。

Our guests are eager to travel with their furry little friends.

我們的客人渴望與他們毛茸茸的小朋友一起旅行。

And by making that simpler, we're able to capture demand and bring new business into the system.

通過簡化這一點，我們能夠捕捉需求並將新業務帶入系統。

As the global travel environment improves, I continue to be impressed by our team members' dedication to providing exceptional experiences to our guests.

隨著全球旅行環境的改善，我們的團隊成員致力於為客人提供卓越的體驗，這給我留下了深刻的印象。

That's why I am particularly proud that, last week, we were named the #3 World's Best Workplace by Fortune and Great Place to Work.

這就是為什麼我特別自豪的是，上週，我們被《財富》和 Great Place to Work 評為全球最佳工作場所第 3 名。

After 6 consecutive years of being ranked, Hilton was the only hospitality company on the list.

在連續 6 年上榜後，希爾頓成為唯一上榜的酒店公司。

We truly believe that Hilton continues to be an engine of opportunity for all of our stakeholders around the world and are very optimistic for the future.

我們堅信，希爾頓將繼續成為我們全球所有利益相關者的機遇引擎，並對未來非常樂觀。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Kevin for a few more details on our results in the quarter.

有了這個，我將把電話轉給凱文，了解我們本季度業績的更多細節。

Thanks, Chris, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝，克里斯，大家早上好。

During the quarter, system-wide RevPAR grew 98.7% versus the prior year on a comparable and currency-neutral basis as the recovery continued to accelerate, driven by strong leisure demand, particularly in the U.S. and across Europe.

在本季度，由於強勁的休閒需求，特別是在美國和整個歐洲的休閒需求的推動，復甦繼續加速，在可比和貨幣中性的基礎上，全系統 RevPAR 與上一年相比增長了 98.7%。

Performance was driven by both occupancy and rate growth.

業績受到入住率和房價增長的推動。

As Chris mentioned, system-wide RevPAR was down 18.8% compared to 2019.

正如 Chris 所說，與 2019 年相比，全系統 RevPAR 下降了 18.8%。

Adjusted EBITDA was $519 million in the third quarter, up 132% year-over-year.

第三季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 5.19 億美元，同比增長 132%。

Results reflect the broader recovery in travel demand.

結果反映了旅行需求的更廣泛復甦。

Management and franchise fees grew 93%, driven by strong RevPAR improvement and Honors license fees.

管理費和特許經營費增長了 93%，這得益於 RevPAR 的強勁改善和榮譽許可費。

Additionally, results were helped by continued cost control at both the corporate and property levels.

此外，公司和物業層面的持續成本控制也有助於取得成果。

Our ownership portfolio performed better than expected in the third quarter, driven by the accelerating recovery in Europe, the Tokyo Olympics and ongoing cost controls.

在歐洲加速復蘇、東京奧運會和持續的成本控制的推動下，我們的所有權組合在第三季度的表現好於預期。

For the quarter, diluted earnings per share, adjusted for special items, was $0.78.

本季度，經特殊項目調整後的稀釋後每股收益為 0.78 美元。

Turning to our regional performance.

談到我們的區域表現。

Third quarter comparable U.S. RevPAR grew 105% year-over-year and was down 14% versus 2019.

第三季度可比美國 RevPAR 同比增長 105%，與 2019 年相比下降 14%。

Robust leisure demand and improving business transient trends drove strong performance in July.

強勁的休閒需求和改善的商業瞬態趨勢推動了 7 月份的強勁表現。

Trends modestly slowed later in the quarter due to seasonality.

由於季節性因素，本季度晚些時候趨勢溫和放緩。

U.S. occupancy averaged nearly 70% for the quarter with overall rate largely in line with 2019 levels.

本季度美國的平均入住率接近 70%，總體比率與 2019 年的水平基本一致。

In the Americas outside the U.S., third quarter RevPAR increased 168% year-over-year and was down 30% versus 2019.

在美國以外的美洲，第三季度 RevPAR 同比增長 168%，與 2019 年相比下降 30%。

The region benefited from easing travel restrictions and strong leisure demand over the summer period.

該地區受益於夏季旅行限制的放鬆和強勁的休閒需求。

Canada also saw a noticeable step-up in demand in August after reopening their borders to vaccinated Americans.

加拿大在向接種疫苗的美國人重新開放邊境後，8 月份的需求也出現了顯著增長。

In Europe, RevPAR grew 142% year-over-year and was down 35% versus 2019.

在歐洲，RevPAR 同比增長 142%，與 2019 年相比下降 35%。

Travel demand accelerated across the region in the third quarter as vaccination rates increased and international travel restrictions loosened.

隨著疫苗接種率的提高和國際旅行限制的放鬆，第三季度整個地區的旅行需求加速。

In the Middle East and Africa region, RevPAR increased 110% year-over-year and was down 29% versus 2019.

在中東和非洲地區，RevPAR 同比增長 110%，與 2019 年相比下降 29%。

Performance benefited from strong domestic leisure demand and international inbound travel from Europe.

業績受惠於強勁的國內休閒需求和來自歐洲的國際入境旅遊。

In the Asia Pacific region, third quarter RevPAR grew 5% year-over-year and was down 41% versus 2019.

在亞太地區，第三季度 RevPAR 同比增長 5%，與 2019 年相比下降了 41%。

RevPAR in China was down 25% as compared to 2019 as a rise in COVID cases led to reimposed restrictions and lockdowns across the country.

與 2019 年相比，中國的 RevPAR 下降了 25%，因為 COVID 病例的增加導致全國重新實施限制和封鎖。

China has recovered steadily into October with occupancy nearing 60% for the month.

中國在 10 月份穩步復甦，當月入住率接近 60%。

In the rest of the Asia Pacific region, prolonged lockdowns in Australia and New Zealand offset upside from the Tokyo Olympics.

在亞太地區其他地區，澳大利亞和新西蘭的長期封鎖抵消了東京奧運會帶來的好處。

Turning to development.

轉向發展。

As Chris mentioned, in the third quarter, we grew net unit 6.6%.

正如克里斯所說，在第三季度，我們的淨單位增長了 6.6%。

Our pipeline grew sequentially, totaling 404,000 rooms at the end of the quarter with 62% of pipeline rooms located outside the U.S. Development activity continues to gain momentum across the globe as the recovery progresses, a testament to the confidence owners and developers have in our strong commercial engines and industry-leading brands.

我們的管道連續增長，截至本季度末共有 404,000 間客房，其中 62% 的管道客房位於美國以外 隨著復甦的進展，開發活動在全球範圍內繼續獲得動力，這證明了業主和開發商對我們強大的信心商用發動機和行業領先品牌。

For the full year, we now expect signings to increase in the mid- to high teens range year-over-year and expect net unit growth of 5% to 5.5%.

對於全年，我們現在預計中高青少年的簽約人數將同比增加，並預計淨單位增長率為 5% 至 5.5%。

Turning to the balance sheet.

轉向資產負債表。

We ended the quarter with $8.9 billion of long-term debt and $1.4 billion in total cash and cash equivalents.

我們在本季度末有 89 億美元的長期債務和 14 億美元的現金和現金等價物總額。

We're proud of the financial flexibility we demonstrated over the past 18 months.

我們為過去 18 個月展示的財務靈活性感到自豪。

And looking ahead, we remain confident in our balance sheet management as we continue to progress through the recovery and move closer towards our target leverage.

展望未來，隨著我們繼續在復蘇中取得進展並更接近我們的目標槓桿，我們對我們的資產負債表管理仍然充滿信心。

Further details on our third quarter can be found in the earnings release we issued earlier this morning.

有關我們第三季度的更多詳細信息，請參閱我們今天上午早些時候發布的收益報告。

This completes our prepared remarks.

這完成了我們準備好的評論。

We would now like to open the line for any questions you may have.

我們現在想為您可能有的任何問題打開熱線。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Chad, can we have our first question, please?

乍得，我們可以問第一個問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions) And the first question will come from Carlo Santarelli with Deutsche Bank.

（操作員說明）第一個問題將來自德意志銀行的 Carlo Santarelli。

Chris, you gave a lot of color, as did you, Kevin, in your prepared remarks.

克里斯，你給了很多顏色，凱文，在你準備好的評論中。

But one thing I just wanted to kind of ask around was how you guys are seeing or believe the cadence of business transient travel will play out here in the fourth quarter and how kind of -- or how you're thinking about the sequencing through 2022?

但我只是想問一問，你們如何看待或相信商務短暫旅行的節奏將在第四季度在這裡發揮作用，以及如何——或者你們如何考慮到 2022 年的排序?

Yes.

是的。

I mean great question, Carlo, and obviously one everybody is interested in.

我的意思是很好的問題，卡洛，顯然每個人都感興趣。

So maybe I'll talk about all the segments a little bit because it's hard to do one without the others.

所以也許我會稍微談談所有部分，因為沒有其他部分很難做到。

So as you know, to grossly oversimplify, which you know I like to do occasionally, the way I would see it is, as we have been seeing through the third quarter and what I think we'll see in the fourth quarter is a continued uptick in business transient travel, I think that will come from all segments of business strange.

所以如你所知，過於簡單化，你知道我偶爾喜歡這樣做，我會看到它的方式，正如我們在第三季度看到的那樣，我認為我們將在第四季度看到的是持續在商務短暫旅行的回升中，我認為這將來自各行各業的怪異。

But again, probably continue to be led this -- in this year in the fourth quarter by small and medium SME, small and medium enterprises.

但同樣，很可能繼續被這個——在今年第四季度由中小企業、中小型企業主導。

I don't think you'll see a huge pickup, but I think you'll see a modest pickup.

我不認為你會看到一個巨大的皮卡，但我認為你會看到一個適度的皮卡。

At the same time, just because people are increasingly back in offices and kids are definitely, mostly, if not entirely, back in school, I think you'll see a little bit of a tick-down in leisure business.

同時，正因為人們越來越多地回到辦公室，孩子們肯定，大部分，如果不是全部，回到學校，我想你會看到休閒行業的一點點下降。

Now the weekends will continue to rage, I think.

我認為現在周末將繼續肆虐。

The weekends have been extraordinary, but the midweek leisure travel will continue to tick down.

週末非同尋常，但周中的休閒旅行將繼續減少。

And I think those 2 will largely offset each other in the fourth quarter.

而且我認為這兩個將在第四季度相互抵消。

I think group will remain pretty consistent.

我認為小組將保持相當一致。

Obviously, we had a big uptick in the summer, and then Delta variant sort of slid out the momentum a little bit on group.

顯然，我們在夏天有很大的上升，然後 Delta 變種在小組賽中稍微滑出了勢頭。

People think -- there's advanced planning.

人們認為——有先進的計劃。

People have to spend money.

人們不得不花錢。

And so while there's plenty of group occurring, it's really largely sports and social.

因此，雖然有很多團體活動，但主要是體育和社交活動。

At this point, I think that continues about -- like what we've seen in the third quarter into the fourth because people are -- all the pent-up demand is there, but people are sort of advanced planning more into next year, just to sort of finally get through Delta and hopefully to the endemic stage of COVID, which sort of feels like is we're in the process of doing as we speak.

在這一點上，我認為這種情況仍在繼續——就像我們在第三季度到第四季度看到的那樣，因為人們是——所有被壓抑的需求都在那裡，但人們對明年的計劃進行了更多的提前計劃，只是為了最終通過三角洲，並希望進入 COVID 的流行階段，這種感覺就像我們正在說話的過程中。

As we think about 2022 with all those segments, what I would say is I think leisure will remain elevated relative to historical standards.

當我們考慮所有這些細分市場的 2022 年時，我想說的是，我認為休閒將相對於歷史標准保持較高水平。

Obviously, my belief is kids will still be back in school.

顯然，我相信孩子們仍然會回到學校。

More offices are going to open.

更多的辦公室將開放。

So midweek, we'll get back to more normalized levels.

所以周中，我們將回到更正常的水平。

But I think the weekends, people want to be out.

但我認為周末，人們想出去。

Turns out they didn't like being locked in their closets and basements and attics, and so they're going to want to get out.

結果他們不喜歡被鎖在壁櫥、地下室和閣樓裡，所以他們會想出去。

And we've seen this pattern of very high demand on weekends.

我們已經看到這種週末需求量非常大的模式。

I think that will continue.

我認為這將繼續下去。

And so I think on the margin, leisure will be -- continue to be stronger than we've historically seen sort of in pre-COVID times.

因此，我認為在邊際上，休閒將 - 繼續比我們在 COVID 之前的歷史上看到的更強大。

I think business transient will continue to move up.

我認為業務瞬態將繼續上升。

You'll continue to see great strength in small and medium enterprises, which aren't fully back to pre-COVID but getting pretty close.

您將繼續在中小型企業中看到強大的實力，這些企業還沒有完全恢復到 COVID 之前，但已經非常接近了。

And my own belief is you'll start to see the large corporates step into the game.

我自己的信念是，你會開始看到大公司參與進來。

I mean they're already in the game, but they're still sort of like 40% off of '19 levels.

我的意思是他們已經在遊戲中了，但他們仍然比 19 級低了 40%。

I think you'll see a step change in the large corporates which will contribute, along with SMEs, to continued upticks in business transient.

我認為您會看到大型企業的一步變化，這將與中小企業一起促進業務瞬態的持續增長。

And then I think group is clearly going to be better next year than this year.

然後我認為小組明年顯然會比今年更好。

I think reality is the first quarter probably is typically a slow group quarter.

我認為現實是第一季度可能通常是一個緩慢的集團季度。

I don't think it will be different in that way.

我不認為它會以這種方式有所不同。

I think people are going to want to sort of clear the mechanism of getting past the winter, just because concerns of flu seasons and all that, given what we've all been through.

我認為人們會想要弄清楚度過冬天的機制，只是因為擔心流感季節等等，考慮到我們都經歷過的事情。

But I think as you get into Qs 2, 3 and 4, both booked business and realized business on the group side are going to be better.

但我認為，當您進入 Qs 2、3 和 4 時，集團方面的預訂業務和已實現業務都會變得更好。

So I think 2022 is sizing up to be -- I think the fourth quarter is sizing up to be fairly similar to the third quarter, and I think 2022 is sizing up to be another big step forward on recovery to more normalized times.

因此，我認為 2022 年的規模將是 - 我認為第四季度的規模與第三季度非常相似，而且我認為 2022 年的規模將是朝著更正常化時期復甦的又一大步。

And the next question comes from Joe Greff from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Joe Greff。

You guys were -- had some interesting comments on the development side, and obviously positive there.

你們在開發方面有一些有趣的評論，而且顯然是積極的。

Chris, when do you think hotel construction starts to trough?

克里斯，你認為酒店建設什麼時候開始低谷？

When do you think new signings peak or have they?

你認為新的簽約何時達到頂峰？

Yes.

是的。

Another we've spent a lot of time looking at that through the last couple of quarters and very recently.

另一個我們在過去幾個季度和最近花了很多時間研究這個問題。

Here's what I'd say.

這就是我要說的。

I gave you a sense, so I won't repeat what both Kevin and I said about NUG.

我給了你一個感覺，所以我不會重複我和凱文關於 NUG 的說法。

Kevin, we both talked about it this year.

凱文，我們今年都談到了這件事。

I gave you a sense in our prepared comments that we think we'll be in the mid-single-digits for the next couple of years.

我在我們準備好的評論中給了你一種感覺，我們認為未來幾年我們將處於中個位數。

Obviously, that requires a lot of work.

顯然，這需要大量的工作。

It requires signing deals, starting construction that then ultimately it lands in our NUG numbers.

它需要簽署協議，開始建設，然後最終進入我們的 NUG 號碼。

I think when you look back 2 years from now at this period of time, I am of the mind and reasonably confident that what you will see is the trough in deal signings was last year.

我認為，當您在 2 年後的這段時間回顧時，我有信心並且有理由相信您將看到去年的交易簽約量低谷。

As Kevin mentioned, we're going to be up in the mid- to high single-digits in signings this year, we think.

正如凱文所說，我們認為今年的簽約人數將達到中高個位數。

I mean we're not done with the year.

我的意思是我們還沒有完成這一年。

We always have a good flurry of activity at the end, but we got a lot of it on the books, and so we're pretty damn confident we're going to be up nicely.

最後我們總是有很多活動，但是我們在書上得到了很多，所以我們非常有信心我們會很好地起床。

And I don't see why next year, given what's going on in the environment in terms of -- particularly operating recovery, pricing power, which I'm sure we'll come to, I'll do it maybe in another question, that we're going to see more deals signed next year.

而且我不明白為什麼明年，考慮到環境方面正在發生的事情 - 特別是運營復甦，定價能力，我相信我們會談到，我可能會在另一個問題中做到這一點，我們將在明年看到更多的交易簽署。

So I think last year was probably, in my mind, the trough for signings.

所以我認為去年在我看來可能是引援的低谷。

I think this year, for those same exact reasons, will be the trough in construction starts.

我認為，出於同樣的原因，今年將是開工的低谷。

Starts always will lag the signings a little bit.

開始總是會稍微落後於簽約。

We're definitely going to be a little bit modestly down in signings this year after being down last year.

在去年下降之後，我們今年的簽約人數肯定會略有下降。

Our expectation is that will turn around next year, and that's why we think we'll be sort of in the mid-single-digits for a couple of years and then back on track being in the 6% to 7% range, just because, starting this year, we're signing more.

我們的預期是明年會好轉，這就是為什麼我們認為我們會在幾年內處於中個位數，然後回到 6% 到 7% 的正軌，只是因為，從今年開始，我們將簽約更多。

Starting next year, we're starting more.

從明年開始，我們將開始更多。

We're obviously filling in a lot.

我們顯然填寫了很多。

You saw in the second quarter, 1/3 of our NUG was conversion, so we're filling in.

你在第二季度看到，我們 NUG 的 1/3 是轉換，所以我們正在填補。

And so between all of those factors, we think, ultimately, when we get out past a couple of years, we're back.

因此，在所有這些因素之間，我們認為，最終，當我們走出幾年後，我們又回來了。

The goal is to be back in the 6% to 7%.

目標是回到 6% 到 7%。

And I think given what I see in the environment that we feel pretty good about that.

我認為考慮到我在環境中看到的情況，我們對此感覺非常好。

I mean -- and I'll probably stop there with the only comment being things are going to come back faster than prior recoveries here, and that's because the thing that's very different than every other cycle I've seen in my 40 years, and I'll leave it at this, and somebody, I'm sure, will have a question, is just pricing power.

我的意思是——我可能會就此打住，唯一的評論是事情會比之前的複蘇更快地恢復，這是因為這與我 40 年來見過的所有其他週期都非常不同，而且我將把它留在這裡，我敢肯定，有人會提出一個問題，就是定價權。

I mean the reality is, typically, it's like a grind to build back occupancy, and rate lags significantly.

我的意思是，現實情況是，通常情況下，重建入住率就像是一種磨難，而且房價明顯滯後。

Rate is leading the charge, and that, obviously, flows really nicely.

利率處於領先地位，顯然，流動性非常好。

We've done a bunch of things, as you know, and we've talked about a lot to create higher-margin businesses out of all of these brands.

如您所知，我們已經做了很多事情，並且我們已經談論了很多以從所有這些品牌中創建更高利潤的業務。

And when you flush all that through, even with labor costs up and all of those fun things, these are higher-margin businesses.

當你把所有這些都沖掉時，即使勞動力成本上升和所有這些有趣的事情，這些都是利潤率更高的業務。

And part of this is just we're in an inflationary environment.

部分原因是我們處於通貨膨脹環境中。

And guess what?

你猜怎麼著？

We can reprice our product every second of every day.

我們可以在每一天的每一秒對我們的產品重新定價。

We're a very good hedge in that way to inflation, and we're being very thoughtful about how we're pricing our product.

以這種方式，我們是一個非常好的對沖通脹的工具，而且我們對如何為我們的產品定價非常深思熟慮。

And so I think when we all look back on it, this will be a faster recovery on the development side than we've seen in prior cycles.

所以我認為，當我們回顧它時，開發方面的恢復速度將比我們在之前的周期中看到的更快。

And -- so I think we're going to be back in -- on a very nice trajectory next year.

而且 - 所以我認為我們將在明年回到非常好的軌道上。

The next question will be from Shaun Kelley from Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Shaun Kelley。

Chris, I think there were a couple of fat pitches there on the pricing environment, so maybe I'll behave, if you could.

克里斯，我認為在定價環境方面有幾個胖子，所以如果可以的話，也許我會表現得很好。

But I guess my twist would be could you give us a little color specifically on the business pricing side?

但我想我的轉折是你能給我們一些具體的商業定價方面的顏色嗎？

I think we all see that the leisure rates are exceptional.

我想我們都看到休閒率非常高。

And so maybe your thoughts on how long leisure can continue pricing like it is, your thoughts on the recovery of business pricing.

因此，也許你對休閒可以繼續定價多久的想法，你對商業定價恢復的想法。

And then any headwind from large corporates?

然後來自大公司的任何逆風？

You've done a great job of delineating small and large, so how much of a headwind is large corporate?

你在區分大小方面做得很好，那麼大公司的逆風有多大？

Does that price any differently?

這個價格有什麼不同嗎？

Is that a factor at all?

這是一個因素嗎？

Yes.

是的。

A great question.

一個很好的問題。

Yes, I did sort of serve that up.

是的，我確實做到了這一點。

So I guess I shouldn't be surprised I'm getting asked.

所以我想我不應該對被問到感到驚訝。

Listen, you embedded in the question is part of the answer.

聽著，你嵌入的問題是答案的一部分。

But obviously, we feel -- first of all, let me not be pedantic but say what I say a lot when I'm asked this question.

但很明顯，我們覺得——首先，當我被問到這個問題時，讓我不要迂腐，而是說出我經常說的話。

The laws of economics are alive and well, right?

經濟規律是鮮活的，對吧？

And that's what's going on.

這就是正在發生的事情。

Why is leisure so strong in rate?

為什麼休閒率如此之高？

Why are we able to price above historically high levels?

為什麼我們能夠定價高於歷史高位？

Because there are crazy amounts of demand.

因為有大量的需求。

Like our weekend demand is off the chart.

就像我們週末的需求超出了圖表一樣。

We're running 85% to 90% system-wide in the U.S. on the weekends, and we're pricing over '19 levels, obviously, because we have a lot of demand.

週末，我們在美國的系統範圍內運行 85% 到 90%，而且我們的定價顯然高於 19 年的水平，因為我們有很多需求。

I do think that will -- that leisure pricing power will continue because, what I said before, I believe that leisure demand is going to remain at elevated levels, particularly on the weekends, and that that's going to give us nice pricing power.

我確實認為這將——休閒定價權將繼續存在，因為正如我之前所說，我相信休閒需求將保持在較高水平，尤其是在周末，這將賦予我們很好的定價權。

Even though, obviously, the recovery in business transient has lagged, as I said in the quarter, we were 75%, but it's sort of a tale of 2 cities, which is I implied it a little bit.

儘管很明顯，商業瞬態的複蘇已經滯後，正如我在本季度所說的那樣，我們是 75%，但這有點像 2 個城市的故事，我稍微暗示了一點。

You have -- the big corporates which are still 40% off, but then you have small and medium which are only maybe 10%.

你有 - 仍然有 40% 折扣的大公司，但是你有可能只有 10% 的中小型公司。

You could even argue maybe 5% or 10% off.

您甚至可以爭論 5% 或 10% 的折扣。

And so we have a fair amount of pricing power in the biggest piece -- in the biggest segments, and they are less price sensitive.

因此，我們在最大的部分擁有相當大的定價權 - 在最大的部分中，它們對價格不那麼敏感。

So broadly, your biggest -- it's not everybody.

從廣義上講，你最大的——不是每個人。

Your biggest corporate customers can end up with sort of off bar, 10% or 20%.

您最大的企業客戶最終可能會獲得 10% 或 20% 的折扣。

Small and medium might end up at 5% or 7%.

中小型企業最終可能會達到 5% 或 7%。

So that's why we were working so hard on accessing more of that demand base pre-COVID and has helped us during COVID.

這就是為什麼我們如此努力地在 COVID 之前訪問更多的需求基礎，並在 COVID 期間幫助了我們。

And so when you put it all together and you look at like even in the quarter, we're at 90% of -- in business transient combined, we're already at 90% of 2019 levels, even though we still have a ways to go to build back demand.

因此，當您將所有這些放在一起時，即使在本季度，我們也處於 90% - 在業務瞬態總和中，我們已經處於 2019 年水平的 90%，儘管我們仍有辦法去建立回需求。

So I feel -- it's a long ways to go.

所以我覺得——還有很長的路要走。

I feel pretty good about where that's going because we're going to keep pushing on small and medium.

我對它的發展方向感覺很好，因為我們將繼續推動中小型企業。

That's almost back.

這幾乎是回來了。

My guess is that will exceed prior levels.

我的猜測是這將超過以前的水平。

And then the corporates are going to come in.

然後企業就會進來。

And that's going to allow us to put more on the top of the funnel to price -- have more demand, allows us to price more aggressively.

這將使我們能夠在價格漏斗的頂部放更多東西——有更多的需求，讓我們能夠更積極地定價。

I think when it's all said and done, if we were 80-20 before, and I don't know exactly where it will be, but my suspect we will probably never go back to 80-20 in reality because we have been successful at finding other segments that we think are going to be there.

我想當一切都說完了，如果我們之前是 80-20，我不知道它會在哪裡，但我懷疑我們可能永遠不會回到 80-20，因為我們已經成功了尋找我們認為會出現的其他細分市場。

They're going to be more resilient, and they're going to be higher priced.

它們將更具彈性，並且價格將更高。

So my guess is we will be managing to probably a 90-10 world or something like that.

所以我的猜測是我們可能會管理一個 90-10 的世界或類似的東西。

But we do think pricing power is not in business transient what it is in leisure, but it's not far off.

但我們確實認為定價權在商業短暫性中並不像在休閒中那樣，但它並不遙遠。

And then group, group is sort of in the year, for the year similar to business transient.

然後是組，組是在年中，對於類似於業務過渡的年。

But as you look forward, because there's so much pent-up demand, and as I've talked about at least on the last call, we're actually pricing already over '19 levels.

但正如你所期待的那樣，因為有太多被壓抑的需求，而且正如我至少在上次電話會議上所說的那樣，我們的定價實際上已經超過了 19 年的水平。

So there's pricing power.

所以有定價權。

And you'd say, well, "Wow, if group is still way off from a consumer revenue point of view, what's going on?" Well, what's going on is group is very -- the one segment that books weigh in advance, and there's a limited amount of meeting space in the world and in the United States.

你會說，好吧，“哇，如果從消費者收入的角度來看，群體仍然很遙遠，那會發生什麼？”嗯，正在發生的事情是團體非常 - 書籍預先權衡的一個部分，並且世界和美國的會議空間有限。

We happen to have a lot of it.

我們碰巧有很多。

I mean there are a few of us that are very big players in that space.

我的意思是我們中的一些人在那個領域是非常重要的參與者。

A lot of people want it.

很多人想要它。

And so the reality is, again, laws of economics are alive and well.

所以現實是，再一次，經濟規律是活得很好的。

People want it.

人們想要它。

There's not enough of it.

這還不夠。

You have huge pent-up demand that's sort of getting all -- events that didn't happen, that need to happen, new events.

你有巨大的被壓抑的需求，可以得到所有的東西——沒有發生的事件，需要發生的事件，新的事件。

And that's pushing into next year.

這將推進到明年。

And so even though, in the moment, group revenues aren't what they were, on a forward-looking basis, there is a good amount of pricing power, which is why on a -- all of our advanced bookings in the next year are pricing over '19 levels at this point.

因此，儘管目前集團收入不如以前，但在前瞻性的基礎上，有很大的定價能力，這就是為什麼我們明年的所有提前預訂在這一點上定價超過 '19 水平。

So again, back to the bait I put out there, I guess, it's unusual.

再說一次，回到我放在那裡的誘餌，我想，這很不尋常。

Like I hate to admit how long I've been doing this but a long time.

就像我不想承認我已經這樣做了多久，但很長時間。

I guess I said it before.

我想我之前說過。

But it just hasn't really happened this way.

但它並沒有真正以這種方式發生。

Now there are a lot of reasons.

現在有很多原因。

We're better, right?

我們更好，對吧？

We got much more sophisticated revenue management systems.

我們有更複雜的收入管理系統。

We're much more on top of it, I think, than we've ever been.

我認為，我們比以往任何時候都更擅長於此。

Obviously, we're in a more inflationary environment broadly.

顯然，我們普遍處於更加通脹的環境中。

Thank you, Federal Reserve and the U.S. Congress, for fiscal and monetary stimulus.

感謝美聯儲和美國國會的財政和貨幣刺激措施。

We could debate transitory or otherwise, but those things are translating into, broadly, a more highly inflationary environment.

我們可以討論暫時的或其他的，但這些事情正在轉化為更廣泛的通脹環境。

And that applies to us, too, and that obviously is helping from a pricing power point of view.

這也適用於我們，從定價能力的角度來看，這顯然是有幫助的。

The next question will be from Thomas Allen from Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Thomas Allen。

So a strategic question.

這是一個戰略問題。

You talked in your prepared remarks about starting to open franchising for Hilton Garden Inn in China.

您在準備好的發言中談到了開始在中國開設希爾頓花園酒店的特許經營權。

I know that was an interesting change because with Hampton Inn, you did a master franchise agreement.

我知道這是一個有趣的變化，因為在 Hampton Inn，您簽訂了主特許經營協議。

Can you just talk about the rationale?

能簡單說說原理嗎？

Yes.

是的。

It's very straightforward.

這很簡單。

We've done 2. The one you mentioned with Plateno was the Hampton Inn.

我們已經完成了 2。您在 Plateno 中提到的那個是 Hampton Inn。

And then more recently, I mentioned in my comments, we just actually opened our first Home2 Suites by Hilton in China on the road to doing 1,000 of them with Country Garden, one of the largest players in China, which is another master license agreement.

最近，我在評論中提到，我們實際上剛剛在中國開設了第一家希爾頓惠庭套房酒店，並準備與中國最大的玩家之一碧桂園合作開辦 1,000 間套房，這是另一項總許可協議。

So we've done those 2.

所以我們已經完成了這 2 個。

Never say never.

永遠不要把話說絕了。

I'm not saying -- but the idea was to really help -- get help from very large local players that knew how to garner scale very quickly to help build our network effect in China and then ultimately come back in with our other brands and do it ourselves.

我不是說——但我的想法是真正提供幫助——從知道如何迅速擴大規模以幫助建立我們在中國的網絡效應並最終與我們的其他品牌合作的本土大型企業那裡獲得幫助我們自己做。

And so that's exactly what we're doing with Hilton Garden Inn.

這正是我們在希爾頓花園酒店所做的。

We obviously have a massive franchise system here in the United States and frankly in Europe now, where the bulk of the business here is franchised.

我們顯然在美國擁有龐大的特許經營系統，坦率地說現在在歐洲，這裡的大部分業務都是特許經營的。

Increasingly, I think we're now -- the majority of the business in Europe is franchised.

越來越多的，我認為我們現在 - 歐洲的大部分業務都是特許經營的。

It's been a much smaller part of the business in China and in Asia Pacific, so we historically haven't had the same level of resources.

它在中國和亞太地區的業務中所佔的份額要小得多，因此我們歷來沒有相同水平的資源。

And so what we've done during COVID is made some strategic investments to build out more infrastructure so that we can take other brands in our -- of our 18 brand -- a family of brands and do it ourselves.

因此，我們在 COVID 期間所做的是進行了一些戰略投資，以建立更多的基礎設施，以便我們可以在我們的 18 個品牌中採用其他品牌並自己動手做。

And so we're trying to be very sort of balanced and balance all the risks associated with our expansion around the world, and we think it's great to work with third parties.

因此，我們正努力保持平衡，平衡與我們在全球擴張相關的所有風險，我們認為與第三方合作非常好。

We love the Country Garden folks and Plateno.

我們喜歡碧桂園和鉑濤。

They've been incredibly important partners, will continue to be for a long, long time.

他們一直是非常重要的合作夥伴，而且還會持續很長時間。

But it's also important that we have that skill set ourselves in franchising.

但同樣重要的是，我們擁有特許經營的技能。

Is it -- while it's similar in China, it's not exactly the same.

是嗎——雖然在中國很相似，但並不完全相同。

And so we've learned a lot and I think built a -- we're building a good infrastructure and a good muscle set to be able to take a bunch of other brands and do just what we've done here in the U.S., Europe and other places.

所以我們學到了很多東西，我認為建立了一個——我們正在建立一個良好的基礎設施和一個良好的肌肉群，以便能夠採取一系列其他品牌並做我們在美國所做的事情，歐洲等地。

And sorry, just a follow-up to this question.

抱歉，只是對這個問題的跟進。

Any updated thinking on the potential TAM for these select service brands in China?

對這些精選服務品牌在中國的潛在 TAM 有何更新思考？

I didn't hear the question.

我沒有聽到這個問題。

How many of these hotels do you think you can open in China?

您認為您可以在中國開設多少家酒店？

What's the addressable market?

目標市場是什麼？

TAM.

譚。

Okay, you're going tech on me.

好吧，你對我來說是技術。

I love that.

我喜歡那個。

I love that.

我喜歡那個。

We do look at TAM.

我們確實關注 TAM。

I mean I'm not going to give you there.

我的意思是我不會給你那裡。

It's thousands, right?

是幾千吧？

Think of it in the following way.

請按照以下方式思考。

We have limited service hotels in the U.S., probably 4,500.

我們在美國的服務型酒店數量有限，大概有 4,500 家。

We have a population of 320 million people.

我們有3.2億人口。

You have 1.3 billion people there, so there's no limit in my lifetime at least, probably not, you're younger than me, but I'm not that old, so probably not in your lifetime either.

你們那裡有13億人，所以至少在我的一生中沒有限制，可能沒有，你比我年輕，但我沒有那麼老，所以可能在你的一生中也沒有。

Thousands and thousands.

成千上萬。

You could easily have 10,000 or 20,000 or more, so I think there's growth opportunities in the mid-market as far as the eye can see in China.

你可以很容易地擁有 10,000 或 20,000 或更多，所以我認為就中國的眼睛所見，中端市場存在增長機會。

So while we have done some TAM work in China every time we come back and look at the numbers, they're just -- they're off the charts.

因此，雖然我們每次回來查看數字時都在中國進行了一些 TAM 工作，但它們只是——它們超出了圖表。

There are no rational limitations given what our footprint is, what the population is and the growth in their middle class.

考慮到我們的足跡、人口數量和中產階級的增長，沒有任何合理的限制。

Next question will be from Smedes Rose from Citi.

下一個問題將來自花旗的 Smedes Rose。

Chris, I was just wondering if you could talk a little bit about what your owners are telling you about labor costs in the U.S. Kind of how they're handling restaffing and maybe just the sort of idea of slim down the operating models versus trying to get back to...

克里斯，我只是想知道你是否可以談談你的老闆告訴你的關於美國勞動力成本的事情，他們如何處理重新人員配置，也許只是精簡運營模式而不是試圖精簡的想法回到...

Yes.

是的。

Smedes, I had a hard time hearing some of that, but I think I captured it, the labor costs and what owners are telling us.

Smedes，我很難聽到其中的一些內容，但我想我抓住了它，勞動力成本和業主告訴我們的內容。

It's obviously been a big issue and one that we spent a lot of time on, a complex issue in terms of what's sort of underneath the problem.

這顯然是一個大問題，我們花了很多時間來解決這個問題，就問題背後的內容而言，這是一個複雜的問題。

What I would say is, obviously, there is no one owner group.

我要說的是，顯然，沒有一個所有者組。

The different owners in different parts of the country and the world, for that matter, have different views.

就此而言，國家和世界不同地區的不同所有者有不同的看法。

But if I sort of homogenize it all, which is hard to do, but if I do it in my head, I would say while it's still a very difficult issue, we've started to see easing in terms of access to labor.

但是，如果我將這一切都同質化，這很難做到，但如果我在腦海中做到這一點，我會說雖然這仍然是一個非常困難的問題，但我們已經開始看到在獲得勞動力方面有所緩解。

I think we have ways to go.

我認為我們有路要走。

There are a bunch of things we're doing to help from a technology point of view to access pools of labor that maybe we hadn't accessed historically.

從技術的角度來看，我們正在做很多事情來幫助訪問我們歷史上可能沒有訪問過的勞動力池。

But broadly, more labor is coming back in, and some of those pressures are easing.

但總的來說，更多的勞動力正在回歸，其中一些壓力正在緩解。

Obviously, labor is more expensive pretty much everywhere.

顯然，勞動力幾乎在任何地方都更加昂貴。

I think that's a reality.

我認為這是一個現實。

Where it settles out, I think it's a little early to know, but I think it is sort of settling down as people are gradually coming back into the workforce.

它在哪里安定下來，我認為現在知道還為時過早，但我認為隨著人們逐漸重返工作崗位，它正在安定下來。

I think the end of the question, which is a really important one, which I sort of touched on earlier in one of my other filibusters, was how is it going to look for owners on the other side?

我認為問題的結尾，這是一個非常重要的問題，我早些時候在我的其他一個阻撓議案中提到過，它將如何尋找另一邊的所有者？

And again, it's hard -- some owners -- depends on location, product, 1,000 factors.

再說一次，這很難——一些所有者——取決於位置、產品、1000 個因素。

But broadly -- and we're already seeing it.

但從廣義上講——我們已經看到了。

I think I said this.

我想我是這麼說的。

Broadly, I think when we get to the other side of this, across the system, margins are going to be higher, and you know why.

總的來說，我認為當我們到達另一邊，在整個系統中，利潤率會更高，你知道為什麼。

With input costs going up, labor costs going up and all of those fun things, they're going to be -- margins are going to be higher because rate is going to be a lot higher ultimately when we get past this for all the reasons I talked about in terms of the pricing power that we have and the broader inflationary environment.

隨著投入成本的上升，勞動力成本的上升以及所有這些有趣的事情，它們將會——利潤率將會更高，因為當我們出於所有原因克服這一點時，最終利率會高得多我談到了我們擁有的定價能力和更廣泛的通脹環境。

That's very helpful to the business.

這對業務非常有幫助。

At the same time, particularly in the mega categories, which is where the bulk of the hotels are with our ownership community, we did a bunch of really important work and did a lot of testing and learning and made a bunch of changes in the hotels.

同時，特別是在大型類別中，大部分酒店都在我們的所有權社區中，我們做了很多非常重要的工作，進行了大量的測試和學習，並對酒店進行了很多改變.

In the end, we think, to create a better experience for our customers, but to do it in a more efficient way to drive higher margins.

最後，我們認為，要為我們的客戶創造更好的體驗，但要以更有效的方式來推動更高的利潤。

So we're pretty confident.

所以我們很有信心。

And we have pretty good evidence, which I'll talk about that, even with the -- when labor comes back and you have to pay labor more, given where rate structures are going to be in most places and given the efficiencies that we've been able to garner, that these are -- our owners are going to end up with higher-margin businesses.

而且我們有很好的證據，我會談到這一點，即使 - 當勞動力回來並且你必須支付更多的勞動力時，考慮到大多數地方的費率結構以及我們的效率。我們已經能夠獲得，這些是 - 我們的所有者最終將擁有更高利潤的業務。

And by the way, many, many of them, not all of them.

順便說一句，很多很多，而不是全部。

So for those that haven't gotten there that are listening, keep the faith.

所以對於那些還沒有到達那裡的人來說，保持信念。

But many, many owners are already there.

但是很多很多業主已經在那裡了。

Some of it is unsustainable, meaning part of it is they can't get enough labor, and so they don't have enough people, so their labor costs are unusually low.

其中一些是不可持續的，這意味著部分原因是他們無法獲得足夠的勞動力，因此他們沒有足夠的人，因此他們的勞動力成本異常低。

But even in places where they are able to get the labor back for the reasons I described, meaning more efficiencies on our standards and pricing power on the top line, they're driving very good margins.

但即使在他們能夠因為我描述的原因收回勞動力的地方，這意味著我們的標準和定價能力的更高效率在頂線，他們正在推動非常好的利潤率。

And so we've had -- the owners are -- have been in pain.

所以我們 - 業主 - 一直很痛苦。

I don't want to minimize it.

我不想最小化它。

There's still many of them in a lot of pain, but we're doing our level best to get them to the other side and make sure their businesses are stronger, both because that's what we should do, as a fiduciary to them, but also, ultimately, if we want to continue to be able to grow, we have to give them an investment alternative that continues to makes sense from a return point of view.

他們中的許多人仍然很痛苦，但我們正在盡最大努力讓他們走到另一邊，並確保他們的業務更加強大，這既是因為這是我們應該做的，作為他們的受託人，也是最終，如果我們想繼續增長，我們必須為他們提供一種從回報的角度來看仍然有意義的投資選擇。

And so we're hyper focused on it.

所以我們非常關注它。

And I would say, I feel really good.

我會說，我感覺很好。

As I said, I think the development cycle will flip faster than we've seen in prior cycles for these reasons.

正如我所說，由於這些原因，我認為開發週期將比我們在之前的周期中看到的更快。

I just think that the economics -- the laws of economics are alive and well.

我只是認為經濟學——經濟學的規律是鮮活的。

I've said it now twice or three times, that if people can get great returns because of the conditions, macro and micro, macro world going on micro the things we're doing, then they're going to want to build us more hotels.

我現在已經說過兩三遍了，如果人們能夠因為條件，宏觀和微觀，宏觀世界和微觀我們正在做的事情而獲得豐厚的回報，那麼他們會想要更多地建設我們酒店。

And obviously, with the signings being up in the mid -- double -- mid-teens to plus, we think that's pretty good prima facie evidence that that's what's going on.

顯然，隨著簽約人數在中 - 雙 - 十幾歲以上，我們認為這是很好的初步證據，證明這就是正在發生的事情。

And the next question will be from Stephen Grambling with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題將來自高盛的 Stephen Grambling。

This is a bit of a multi-parter, but you mentioned that the majority of the pipeline is outside the U.S. Can you just remind us of what that split maybe looks like within some of the major markets?

這有點多方，但你提到大部分管道都在美國以外。你能提醒我們一些主要市場的分裂可能是什麼樣子嗎？

How the contribution from international room growth could compare and contrast to the U.S. as we translate NUG to fees?

當我們將 NUG 轉化為費用時，國際客房增長的貢獻如何與美國進行比較和對比？

And then if you could just talk to any kind of incremental signing opportunities that you're seeing that surfaced in new markets as a result of the pandemic that could be longer lasting.

然後，如果您可以談論由於可能持續更長時間的大流行而出現在新市場中的任何類型的增量簽約機會。

Yes, Stephen.

是的，斯蒂芬。

It's Kevin.

是凱文。

I'll sort of try to take those in order.

我會試著把它們整理好。

I think that the mix of rooms under construction is just over -- so kind of between 60% and 65% outside the U.S. versus inside the U.S. I think in terms of -- look, we're always trying to enter new markets.

我認為在建房間的組合剛剛結束——美國以外的比例在 60% 到 65% 之間，而我認為在美國境內——看，我們一直在努力進入新市場。

I think we have 20 something -- 25 to 30 new countries embedded in the pipeline that we don't have today, right?

我認為我們有 20 個——25 到 30 個新的國家嵌入到我們今天沒有的管道中，對嗎？

So we're always trying to enter new markets.

所以我們一直在嘗試進入新市場。

I'm not sure really anything of that -- any of that has been opened up by the pandemic.

我不確定這真的是什麼——大流行已經打開了這些。

I think it's just sort of the course of the growth of our business over time.

我認為這只是我們業務隨著時間的推移而增長的過程。

And then trajectory really has a lot to do with how places are coming out of the pandemic, meaning we've been -- even though there's been spikes up and down in RevPAR in China, for instance, as they go into lockdowns, the development trajectory there has actually continued to be pretty solid and continued to improve.

然後軌跡真的與地方如何擺脫大流行有很大關係，這意味著我們一直在——即使中國的 RevPAR 出現了峰值和下降，例如，當它們進入封鎖狀態時，發展那裡的軌跡實際上繼續相當穩固並繼續改善。

But in places like Europe where, traditionally, it's more of a face-to-face development environment, the less people have been able -- the less our teams and the owners have been able to get on planes and move around country to country, those signings have lagged a little bit.

但是在像歐洲這樣的地方，傳統上，它更像是一個面對面的開發環境，能夠做到的人越少——我們的團隊和業主能夠上飛機並在一個國家到另一個國家移動的能力就越少，這些簽約有點滯後。

So I actually see that as a tailwind coming out of the pandemic, whereas there's a lot of pent-up demand for development in EMEA broadly.

因此，我實際上認為這是大流行帶來的順風，而歐洲、中東和非洲地區廣泛存在大量被壓抑的發展需求。

And I think that it's just going to require a little bit more mobility to surface that.

而且我認為它只是需要更多的流動性才能浮出水面。

But the rest of it is just, over time, as Chris has talked about this, as you have a rapidly developing middle class with more demand for mid-market products, you're going to see a little bit more of that demand over time.

但剩下的只是，隨著時間的推移，正如克里斯所說，隨著中產階級的快速發展，對中端市場產品的需求增加，隨著時間的推移，你會看到更多的需求.

I mean the full-service business is not dead by any means.

我的意思是全方位服務業務無論如何都沒有消亡。

But you're just going to see, on the margin, the capital flows more to the limited-service hotels.

但你會看到，在邊際上，資本更多地流向了有限服務酒店。

So we're going to do more deals where the capital flows.

因此，我們將在資本流動的地方進行更多交易。

And then as we bring franchising, which has been very successful for us -- Chris went through it, so I won't go through it again.

然後當我們帶來特許經營，這對我們來說非常成功——克里斯經歷過，所以我不會再經歷一次。

But as we bring franchising to different parts of the world, particularly Asia Pacific, we're just going to do more franchise deals over time.

但隨著我們將特許經營帶到世界不同地區，尤其是亞太地區，隨著時間的推移，我們只會做更多的特許經營交易。

You're not going to see, I don't think, big step changes.

你不會看到，我不認為，重大的變化。

You're just going to see a gradual growth over time in more limited-service mix and more franchise mix.

隨著時間的推移，您將看到更多有限服務組合和更多特許經營組合的逐漸增長。

Did that cover all the parts?

是否涵蓋了所有部分？

One very quick follow-up.

一個非常快速的跟進。

So from a net unit growth standpoint then, I guess, the fees that you're getting from the international market maybe ends up being a little bit lower because of the RevPAR.

因此，從淨單位增長的角度來看，我想，由於 RevPAR，您從國際市場獲得的費用最終可能會稍微低一些。

But on the flip side, it sounds like you're doing more direct, so there's a potential for that to actually improve within that mix.

但另一方面，聽起來你做的更直接，所以有可能在這種組合中實際改進。

Is that true?

真的嗎？

Well, yes.

嗯，是。

Mathematically, right, the lower price points, it will blend in over time.

從數學上講，對，較低的價格點，它會隨著時間的推移而融合。

Again, it will not change dramatically.

同樣，它不會發生巨大變化。

We've modeled it every which way, and it's really hard to make that per room number move.

我們已經以各種方式對其進行了建模，並且很難使每個房間號移動。

But mathematically, it has to move over time.

但從數學上講，它必須隨著時間的推移而變化。

And the reality is, look, it's very high margin.

現實是，看，這是非常高的利潤率。

It's 100% margin.

這是100％的保證金。

Once we have scale in these parts of the world, it's a 100% margin and infinite yield.

一旦我們在世界這些地區擁有規模，那就是 100% 的利潤和無限的收益。

And so we'll take it.

所以我們會接受它。

The next question will be from Robin Farley with UBS.

下一個問題將來自瑞銀的 Robin Farley。

Great.

偉大的。

A lot of my questions have been asked already.

我的很多問題已經被問到了。

One, just to circle back, and I hope I didn't miss this in the opening comment.

一，只是繞回來，我希望我在開場評論中沒有錯過這一點。

I -- the operator pulled me out of the call for a minute.

我——接線員把我從電話中拉了一會兒。

But when you talked about group and the expectation that there'll be a lot of pent-up volume for '22, can you give us a sense of where -- and I think that is a reasonable expectation but kind of where the group on the books for next year is versus '19.

但是當你談到小組和預計 22 年會有很多被壓抑的音量時，你能給我們一個感覺嗎——我認為這是一個合理的期望，但有點像小組在哪裡明年的書籍與 19 年相比。

Like in other words, it's likely to be higher or maybe not in Q1, but kind of how that's pacing with what you have on the books for group for '22.

換句話說，第一季度它可能會更高，也可能不會，但這與你在 22 年小組的書上所擁有的節奏差不多。

And I don't know if you have it by quarter or first half, second half.

我不知道你是在季度還是上半年，下半年。

Yes.

是的。

I mean it would be weighted to Qs 2 through 4, first of all, for the reasons I covered in a prior answer.

我的意思是它會被加權到 Qs 2 到 4，首先，因為我在之前的答案中提到的原因。

Just meaning people want to get through the winter, one.

只是意味著人們想要度過冬天，一個。

Two, the first quarter is never a big group quarter.

二、第一季從來都不是大團季。

So you put those 2 things together, and it trends heavily to Qs 2, 3 and 4.

所以你把這兩件事放在一起，它會在很大程度上趨向於 Qs 2、3 和 4。

We're in the 75%, 80% on the books, which is about consistent with where we were in the last quarter.

我們在賬面上的 75% 和 80%，這與我們上一季度的情況大致一致。

And what happened is, I think if you hadn't had the Delta variant spike, we'd probably be somewhat further along.

發生的事情是，我認為如果你沒有 Delta 變體的尖峰，我們可能會走得更遠一些。

But you had the Delta variant sort of slow -- they cooled off the advanced bookings on the group side, which have now picked back up.

但是你有 Delta 變種有點慢 - 他們冷卻了團體方面的提前預訂，現在已經回升。

The other thing going on, of course, is we want to -- we do believe there's going to be a lot of group potential, particularly in Qs 2, 3 and 4. And we don't want to commit.

當然，另一件事是我們想要 - 我們確實相信會有很多團隊潛力，特別是在 Qs 2、3 和 4 中。而且我們不想承諾。

There's a level of -- lack of desire on our part to commit too much space when we know that there'll be a lot of pricing power, so it's sort of a bit of a delicate balancing act.

當我們知道會有很多定價權時，我們缺乏投入太多空間的願望，所以這有點微妙的平衡行為。

And the next question will be from Richard Clarke from Bernstein.

下一個問題將來自伯恩斯坦的理查德克拉克。

I just noticed on your cost reimbursement revenue has exceeded your -- the cost reimbursement expense for the first time really since the pandemic began.

我剛剛注意到你的費用報銷收入已經超過了你的——自大流行開始以來第一次真正的費用報銷費用。

And you've lost obviously -- non-underlying, but you've lost about sort of $500 million through that Delta as the pandemic has gone on.

而且您顯然已經損失了-非基礎性損失，但是隨著大流行的繼續，您通過該三角洲損失了大約 5 億美元。

Is this the beginning potentially of you being able to claw that back?

這是你有可能收回它的開始嗎？

And could this be a sort of boost to cash flow over the next few quarters?

在接下來的幾個季度中，這是否會增加現金流？

Yes, Richard.

是的，理查德。

It's -- I wouldn't necessarily describe it as a clawback.

它是——我不一定將其描述為回撥。

I think what happened early in the pandemic is you had sort of -- rough numbers, you had revenue go down kind of 85% to 90% overnight.

我認為在大流行初期發生的事情是——粗略的數字，你的收入在一夜之間下降了 85% 到 90%。

And we did a really good job of taking the expenses down, but we can only take expenses down, call it, 60% or 65%.

我們在降低開支方面做得非常好，但我們只能降低開支，稱之為 60% 或 65%。

So we basically were funding from our balance sheet the -- all the commercial engines and the websites and all the funded part of the business.

所以我們基本上是從我們的資產負債表中資助的——所有的商業引擎和網站以及業務的所有資助部分。

And so those things really are giant co-ops.

所以這些東西真的是巨大的合作社。

They're going to break even over time.

他們會隨著時間的推移而收支平衡。

So now what you're seeing is revenues -- and by the way, all the fees, all the sources of funds for those programs are funded as a percentage of revenue.

所以現在你看到的是收入——順便說一句，這些項目的所有費用、所有資金來源都是按收入的百分比提供的。

So as revenue is climbing, our receipts are going up.

因此，隨著收入的攀升，我們的收入也在上升。

And we will ultimately bring those funds back to breakeven, and we will recover those deficits.

我們最終將使這些資金恢復盈虧平衡，我們將彌補這些赤字。

And at the moment, you're seeing it as surpluses.

目前，您將其視為盈餘。

But I wouldn't necessarily think of it as clawbacks.

但我不一定認為這是回扣。

Those funds run surpluses and deficits from time to time.

這些資金不時出現盈餘和赤字。

So I think you'll see it run a surplus for a little while.

所以我想你會看到它在一段時間內出現盈餘。

And yes, the cash is commingled.

是的，現金是混合的。

But it's our owner's money at the end of the day, and we spend it all on them.

但歸根結底，這是我們所有者的錢，我們都花在了他們身上。

Next question will be from Bill Crow from Raymond James.

下一個問題將來自 Raymond James 的 Bill Crow。

Chris, I hope you don't mind.

克里斯，我希望你不介意。

I'm going to challenge you a little bit on the leisure outlook for 2022.

我將就 2022 年的休閒前景向您提出一些挑戰。

And I'm just wondering how much risk there really is when we think about the combination of the return to office, the absence of government checks, much higher costs from inflation for the consumer and probably a pretty considerable pent-up outbound international demand.

而且我只是想知道，當我們考慮重返辦公室、沒有政府檢查、消費者因通貨膨脹而產生的高得多的成本以及可能相當大的被壓抑的出境國際需求的組合時，真正存在的風險有多大。

So I'm thinking about your comments on rate and leisure and weekday leisure in particular.

因此，我正在考慮您對速率和休閒以及特別是工作日休閒的評論。

Are we at risk kind of setting ourselves up for disappointment next year?

明年我們是否有可能讓自己失望？

I don't think so.

我不這麼認為。

You heard my views, so you can -- we can have a debate about it, but I don't think so for the following reason.

你聽到了我的觀點，所以你可以——我們可以就此進行辯論，但我不這麼認為，原因如下。

I think the midweek is already being bled out now, so I don't -- I think most people -- most kids are back in school.

我認為現在周中已經被淘汰了，所以我不 - 我認為大多數人 - 大多數孩子都回到了學校。

It's in truncate's mobility even if people are in the office, so while more offices are going to open through the rest of this year and into next year.

即使人們在辦公室，它的流動性也會降低，因此今年剩餘時間和明年將有更多辦公室開放。

What we've seen in the pattern of leisure during the midweek, it's our -- we've sort of washed out a large part of that already.

我們在周中的休閒模式中所看到的，是我們的——我們已經淘汰了其中的很大一部分。

I may be wrong, but I believe the weekends are going to remain strong, simply because I still think, if you look at the $3 trillion of incremental savings during COVID, there's a long way to go to spend it all.

我可能是錯的，但我相信週末會保持強勁，僅僅是因為我仍然認為，如果你看看 COVID 期間 3 萬億美元的增量儲蓄，那麼要花掉所有的錢還有很長的路要走。

And I think people still want to do -- they want the experiences that they were starved for, and now it gets concentrated more on weekends, which is what we're seeing now.

我認為人們仍然想做——他們想要他們渴望的體驗，現在它更多地集中在周末，這就是我們現在所看到的。

I believe that will continue.

我相信這種情況會持續下去。

I don't -- so the net of it is, my view, just to be clear, is that relative to a normalized like '19 level of leisure demand, I think we're getting back more towards that with a little bit better because I think the weekends are going to be a little bit better.

我沒有——所以我的觀點是，為了清楚起見，相對於像 19 年這樣的正常化休閒需求水平，我認為我們正在朝著更好的方向回歸因為我認為周末會好一些。

I'm not -- I agree with you.

我不是——我同意你的看法。

I don't think that the midweek leisure is going to be raging, and that's not sort of built into my expectations.

我不認為周中的休閒活動會如火如荼，這並不是我的預期。

In terms of outbound, yes, the world is opening up.

在出境方面，是的，世界正在開放。

But then there's inbound, too.

但也有入站。

Particularly for the cities that -- the big cities, top 25 markets that historically depend on 20% of their business from inbound international travel, they've had 0. And starting next week or week after, the floodgates are going to open on that.

特別是對於大城市，歷史上 20% 的業務來自入境國際旅行的前 25 個市場，他們的收入為 0。從下週或下週開始，閘門將打開.

So yes, you're going to have some people going outbound, but you're going to have a lot of people that want to come see America that is going to offset that and particularly with the top 25 markets, broadly, but particularly in the top 25 markets that are going to come in.

所以，是的，你會有一些人出境，但你會有很多人想來美國看看，這將抵消這一點，特別是在前 25 個市場，廣泛而言，尤其是在將進入的前 25 個市場。

Again, we're still in the middle of budgets, and we're still debating all of this and where it ends up.

同樣，我們仍處於預算中間，我們仍在辯論所有這些以及最終的結果。

There's -- I'm giving you my opinion and my sense of it.

有 - 我給你我的意見和我的感覺。

I think leisure will remain -- when we wake up next year and the following year, and you compare it to the amount of leisure business that we did, which was probably 25% or 30% of our overall segmentation pre-COVID, I think it will be higher than that.

我認為休閒將繼續存在——當我們明年和次年醒來時，你將其與我們所做的休閒業務量進行比較，我認為這可能是我們在 COVID 之前的整體細分的 25% 或 30%它會比這更高。

And I think it will be higher than that because people want to get out more.

而且我認為它會比這更高，因為人們想要更多地出去。

There's plenty of incremental savings in the world that has not gotten anywhere close to being spent.

世界上有大量的增量儲蓄還沒有被花掉。

And the weekend business, while we were doing better on weekends than we had historically, I think it will stay even more elevated than that.

而周末業務，雖然我們在周末的表現比歷史上更好，但我認為它會保持比這更高的水平。

Great.

偉大的。

And Chris, can I give you the opportunity to maybe update us on the timing for potential capital returns and buybacks?

克里斯，我可以給你機會向我們介紹潛在資本回報和回購的時間嗎？

Yes.

是的。

We don't have anything new.

我們沒有任何新東西。

But to repeat what I said last time, we are very interested in getting back to returning capital.

但重複我上次所說的，我們對回歸資本非常感興趣。

We firmly believe in our capital allocation strategy pre-COVID, which was we were producing a lot of free cash flow that we didn't -- we can continue to grow the business in an industry-leading way without the use of much of it.

我們堅信我們在 COVID 之前的資本配置策略，即我們產生了大量我們沒有的自由現金流——我們可以在不使用大部分資金的情況下繼續以行業領先的方式發展業務.

And we wanted, as a result, to give it back to our shareholders because there was no reason for us to hoard it or do dumb things with it.

因此，我們想把它還給我們的股東，因為我們沒有理由囤積它或用它做愚蠢的事情。

And disciplined capital allocation, we believe, is a hallmark of long term, delivering great returns for shareholders.

我們相信，嚴格的資本配置是長期的標誌，可為股東帶來豐厚的回報。

Our -- my belief hasn't been changed through COVID.

我們——我的信念並沒有因 COVID 而改變。

The only thing that changed is we didn't have a lot of free cash flow during the heat of the crisis.

唯一改變的是，在危機最嚴重的時候，我們沒有很多自由現金流。

We are obviously getting past that.

我們顯然已經過去了。

We are cash flow positive.

我們的現金流為正。

We want to just give it a little bit more time, as I said on the last call, sort of finish out the year.

正如我在上次電話會議上所說的那樣，我們只想給它多一點時間，以結束這一年。

And if things go as we expect and consistent with what we have been seeing, we're going to reinstate a return of capital program in the first half of next year.

如果事情如我們所料並與我們所看到的一致，我們將在明年上半年恢復資本回報計劃。

And my guess is it will look quite similar.

我的猜測是它看起來很相似。

I mean, we're still having that discussion with our Board who obviously has a say in it.

我的意思是，我們仍在與顯然有發言權的董事會進行討論。

But I think if I had to pick a line, I think it will look a lot like what we were doing pre-COVID.

但我認為，如果我必須選擇一條線，我認為它看起來很像我們在 COVID 之前所做的。

And we're very focused on it and very anxious to get back to it.

我們非常專注於它並且非常渴望回到它。

And so I direct you, I would say first half of next year.

所以我指導你，我會說明年上半年。

The next question will be from Patrick Scholes with Truist Securities.

下一個問題將來自 Truist Securities 的 Patrick Scholes。

A question on labor costs and specifically Hilton Corporation's labor costs.

關於勞動力成本，特別是希爾頓公司的勞動力成本的問題。

Any change in your expectations for G&A and trajectory of your G&A versus what you said in the past?

與您過去所說的相比，您對 G&A 的期望和 G&A 的軌蹟有什麼變化？

And correct me if I'm wrong, I have in my notes here.

如果我錯了，請糾正我，我的筆記在這裡。

You've talked about sensitivity of EBITDA to RevPAR, EBITDA growth about 1.3x RevPAR growth.

您談到了 EBITDA 對 RevPAR 的敏感性，EBITDA 增長約為 RevPAR 增長的 1.3 倍。

Is that still your thoughts on that trajectory?

這仍然是你對那個軌蹟的想法嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I think what we said, Patrick, is that in the context of when RevPAR levels are elevated, the RevPAR growth is elevated the way it is, it will be in that zone.

帕特里克，我認為我們所說的是，在 RevPAR 水平提高的情況下，RevPAR 增長會以現在的方式提高，它將在那個區域內。

I think it should be -- obviously 90% of the business is from fees, that should be about 1:1 as things normalize.

我認為應該是——顯然 90% 的業務來自費用，隨著事情的正常化，這應該是 1:1 左右。

We think we can do a little bit better with net unit growth, cost discipline, license fees, things like that, maybe a little bit better than 1:1 over time.

我們認為我們可以在淨單位增長、成本紀律、許可費等方面做得更好，隨著時間的推移，可能會比 1:1 好一點。

But I think the 1.3x is more of when RevPAR is elevated.

但我認為 1.3 倍更多是 RevPAR 提高的時候。

And then no change -- short answer is no change in our views on G&A, right?

然後沒有變化——簡短的回答是我們對 G&A 的看法沒有變化，對吧？

We've been very disciplined.

我們一直很自律。

I think we -- what we've said to you guys is that cash G&A ought to be down this year in the mid- to high teens from 2019 levels.

我認為我們 - 我們對你們說的是，今年的現金 G&A 應該從 2019 年的水平下降到中高水平。

We actually might do a little bit better than that this year because we've got pretty good cost discipline.

實際上，我們今年可能會比那做得好一點，因為我們有很好的成本紀律。

GAAP is different, but you got a lot of moving pieces.

GAAP 是不同的，但你有很多動人的部分。

Particularly in the third quarter this year, we're lapping over some of the write-downs of stock comp from last year.

特別是在今年第三季度，我們正在研究去年的一些股票減記。

And then going forward, again, no real change.

然後繼續前進，再一次，沒有真正的變化。

I think we all understand that, with more business activity is going to come a little bit more expense.

我想我們都明白，更多的商業活動會帶來更多的費用。

And just like we're in an inflationary environment that's going to help on the revenue side, we're going to be paying people a little bit more along the way.

就像我們處於一個有助於收入方面的通貨膨脹環境一樣，我們將在此過程中向人們支付更多的薪水。

But we do think we're going to maintain discipline.

但我們確實認為我們會保持紀律。

The changes that we've made to our structure are going to hold going forward, and we feel -- still feel the same way.

我們對結構所做的改變將繼續向前發展，我們感覺 - 仍然感覺相同。

The next question will be from Vincent Ciepiel (sic) [Vince Ciepiel] with Cleveland Research Company.

下一個問題將來自克利夫蘭研究公司的 Vincent Ciepiel (sic) [Vince Ciepiel]。

Great.

偉大的。

Question on distribution.

關於分配的問題。

You guys have done a nice job driving direct business with, I think, loyalty contribution around 60% pre-COVID.

你們在推動直接業務方面做得很好，我認為，在 COVID 之前，忠誠度貢獻率約為 60%。

But I know OTA contribution fell from high teens to about low doubles while reducing commissions along that path, so a lot of exciting things happening on the distribution front.

但我知道 OTA 的貢獻從十幾歲下降到低雙倍，同時減少了沿途的佣金，所以在分銷方面發生了很多令人興奮的事情。

I'm curious, on the other side of this, how you're thinking about OTA contribution as well as how high that loyalty contribution can get.

我很好奇，另一方面，您如何看待 OTA 貢獻以及忠誠度貢獻可以達到多高。

Yes, really good question.

是的，非常好的問題。

I don't feel really a lot different than I did pre-COVID.

我感覺與 COVID 之前的情況並沒有太大的不同。

I mean we believe there's an efficient frontier, and we've calculated it as best we can by individual market property, what -- based on what they can deliver at that price point versus what we can deliver, how do we deliver the highest index -- the highest revenue for the lowest distribution cost.

我的意思是我們相信有一個有效的邊界，我們已經盡我們所能通過單個市場屬性來計算它，基於他們在那個價格點上可以提供什麼與我們可以提供什麼，我們如何提供最高指數——以最低的分銷成本獲得最高的收入。

And we do believe, and that's why we've had a good relationship with the OTAs, that they play a part in that.

我們確實相信，這就是我們與 OTA 保持良好關係的原因，他們在其中發揮了作用。

It's traditionally been in the sort of 10% or 12% range, and that's historically where we've been.

傳統上，它一直在 10% 或 12% 的範圍內，而這在歷史上也是如此。

During COVID, that went up.

在 COVID 期間，這一數字上升了。

But if -- we wanted it to go up.

但是，如果 - 我們希望它上升。

We partnered, I think, quite successfully with our OTA partners, knowing that the biggest segment of demand that was out there for most of COVID was lower-rated leisure, which is what they are particularly good at, non-loyalty -- nonloyal-type customer base.

我認為，我們與 OTA 合作夥伴的合作非常成功，因為我們知道大多數 COVID 的最大需求部分是低評級的休閒，這是他們特別擅長的，非忠誠——非忠誠——類型的客戶群。

And so it has crept -- it crept up a bit but not too terribly much, and we've already seen that sort of peak and start to come down.

所以它已經悄悄爬升了——它爬升了一點，但不是太可怕，我們已經看到了那種高峰並開始下降。

And so while we'll look at the efficient frontier as we always do periodically and maybe if you think leisure is going to be a little bit higher component overall, maybe it goes up a little, but not much, and it didn't move that much.

因此，雖然我們會像往常一樣定期研究有效邊界，也許如果你認為休閒總體上會更高一些，也許它會上升一點，但不會太多，而且它沒有移動那麼多。

So the net of all that is I think when we wake up in a couple of years, it will look an awful lot like it did before.

所以我認為當我們在幾年後醒來時，它看起來會和以前非常相似。

And we obviously feel good about the contractual terms that we have with the OTAs now and our ability to continue to have attractive terms going forward.

我們顯然對我們現在與 OTA 簽訂的合同條款以及我們在未來繼續擁有有吸引力的條款的能力感到滿意。

As it relates to Honors, the -- my Honors team is probably listening, and they may need a diaper for this.

由於它與榮譽有關，我的榮譽團隊可能正在傾聽，他們可能需要為此準備尿布。

But we're -- we maxed out in the 63%, 64% system-wide.

但是我們——我們在整個系統範圍內達到了 63%、64%。

And we're already in the U.S., as I mentioned in my prepared comments, not that far off of that.

正如我在準備好的評論中提到的那樣，我們已經在美國了，離那不遠。

Globally, we're coming back as our more of -- number one, we've accessed more travelers that weren't loyal.

在全球範圍內，我們正在回歸——第一，我們接觸到了更多不忠誠的旅行者。

So some of these leisure travelers that we didn't have access to, we've now accessed.

因此，我們現在已經接觸到了一些我們無法接觸到的休閒旅行者。

And more of our core customer is getting back on the road.

我們更多的核心客戶正在重新上路。

We're getting back to normal.

我們正在恢復正常。

But I'm not going to put a number out there because I'll give a heart -- my team will have a heart attack.

但我不會把數字放在那裡，因為我會獻出一顆心——我的球隊會心髒病發作。

But I believe that there is a lot of room to grow.

但我相信還有很大的成長空間。

I think the super majority -- if we're doing our job, the super majority of our customers want to be Honors members.

我認為絕大多數 - 如果我們正在做我們的工作，我們的絕大多數客戶都希望成為榮譽會員。

It's a proposition that they get benefits that you just don't get, and they're meaningful.

這是一個提議，他們獲得了您無法獲得的好處，而且它們很有意義。

And you can go through them.

你可以通過它們。

They get discounts.

他們得到折扣。

They get technology.

他們獲得技術。

They get experiences money can't buy.

他們獲得了金錢買不到的經驗。

They get points that are currency.

他們得到的積分是貨幣。

They can shop on Amazon and Lyft and buy tickets at Live Nation.

他們可以在亞馬遜和 Lyft 上購物，並在 Live Nation 購買門票。

And there is no reason, as we continue coming out of this, to actively engage with our customer base, where it shouldn't be -- we shouldn't be able to push it meaningfully higher than where we kept -- where we maxed out before.

隨著我們繼續走出困境，沒有理由積極與我們的客戶群互動，這是不應該的——我們不應該能夠將它有意義地推到比我們保持的更高的地方——我們最大化的地方之前出來。

Now that will take time.

現在這需要時間。

And so to my Honors team, don't freak out.

所以對於我的榮譽團隊，不要驚慌失措。

We're going to give you the time.

我們會給你時間。

But our goals there, which I'm not going to state publicly, are meaningfully higher than where we were, which, by the way, is meaningfully higher than any of our competitors already.

但是我們在那裡的目標，我不會公開聲明，比我們的目標要高得多，順便說一句，我們的目標已經比我們的任何競爭對手都高了。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question-and-answer session.

女士們，先生們，我們的問答環節到此結束。

I would like to turn the call back to Chris Nassetta for any additional or closing remarks.

我想將電話轉回 Chris Nassetta 以獲取任何補充或結束語。

Thanks, everybody, for the time today.

謝謝大家，今天的時間。

I know it's a busy earnings season.

我知道這是一個繁忙的財報季。

We're obviously quite pleased given what we've all lived through over the last 20 months to be able to report the progress that we were able to report for the third quarter.

鑑於我們在過去 20 個月中所經歷的一切，能夠報告我們能夠報告第三季度的進展，我們顯然非常高興。

As you could tell from the call, I remain quite optimistic about where this recovery is going and what the opportunities are in the industry but particularly for our business and the growth of our business.

正如您從電話中可以看出的那樣，我仍然對這種複甦的走向以及行業中的機會非常樂觀，尤其是對我們的業務和業務增長而言。

And we'll look forward to reporting fourth quarter and full year after the New Year.

我們期待在新年後報告第四季度和全年。

Look forward to seeing many of you while we're out on the road.

期待在旅途中見到你們中的許多人。

And have a terrific day and holiday, if I don't see you.

如果我沒有見到你，祝你有個美好的一天和假期。

And thank you, sir.

謝謝你，先生。

The conference has now concluded.

會議現已結束。

Thank you for attending today's presentation.

感謝您參加今天的演講。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連接。