希爾頓酒店 (HLT) 2021 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Hilton Second Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

早安，歡迎參加希爾頓 2021 年第二季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Jill Slattery, Senior Vice President Investor Relations and Corporate Development. You may begin.

現在我想將會議交給投資者關係和企業發展資深副總裁 Jill Slattery。你可以開始了。

Thank you, Chad. Welcome to Hilton's Second Quarter 2021 Earnings Call. Before we begin, we would like to remind you that our discussions this morning will include forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those indicated in the forward-looking statements, and forward-looking statements made today are effective only as of today. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise these statements. For a discussion of some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ, please see the Risk Factors section of our most recently filed Form 10-K.

謝謝你，查德。歡迎參加希爾頓 2021 年第二季財報電話會議。在開始之前，我們想提醒您，我們今天上午的討論將包括前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中所示的結果有重大差異，今天所做的前瞻性陳述僅截至今日有效。我們不承擔公開更新或修改這些聲明的義務。有關可能導致實際結果不同的一些因素的討論，請參閱我們最近提交的表格 10-K 的風險因素部分。

In addition, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures on this call. You can find reconciliations of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures discussed in today's call in our earnings press release and on our website at ir.hilton.com.

此外，我們將在本次電話會議上提及某些非公認會計準則財務指標。您可以在我們的收益新聞稿和我們的網站 ir.hilton.com 上找到今天電話會議中討論的非 GAAP 與 GAAP 財務指標的調整表。

This morning, Chris Nassetta, our President and Chief Executive Officer, will provide an overview of the current operating environment. Kevin Jacobs, our Chief Financial Officer and President of Global Development, will then review our second quarter results. Following their remarks, we'll be happy to take your questions.

今天早上，我們的總裁兼執行長 Chris Nassetta 將概述當前的營運環境。我們的財務長兼全球發展總裁 Kevin Jacobs 隨後將審查我們第二季的業績。在他們的發言之後，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

With that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Chris.

至此，我很高興將電話轉給克里斯。

Thank you, Jill. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us today. As I think our second quarter results demonstrate, we continue to make significant progress towards recovery, working hard to serve all of our stakeholders; for our guests to deliver reliable and friendly experiences in a very demanding environment,; for our team members to maintain an award-winning culture by creating an inclusive, safe and welcoming environment full of opportunities; for our owners to drive value through premium market share and efficient and effective operating models; for our communities to remain a positive force for good at a time when it is needed most; and finally, for our shareholders to maximize profits, free cash flow and overall total returns.

謝謝你，吉爾。大家早安，感謝您今天加入我們。正如我認為第二季的業績所表明的那樣，我們繼續在復甦方面取得重大進展，努力為所有利益相關者服務；讓我們的客人在非常苛刻的環境中提供可靠和友好的體驗；透過創造一個包容、安全和熱情、充滿機會的環境，讓我們的團隊成員保持屢獲殊榮的文化；讓我們的所有者透過優質的市場份額和高效的營運模式來推動價值；讓我們的社區在最需要的時候繼續成為一股正向的造福力量；最後，為我們的股東實現利潤、自由現金流和整體總回報的最大化。

We're pleased to see that our diligence and determination are beginning to pay off. As much of the world reopens, the pent-up demand for travel we've been anticipating is happening. While the pace of recovery varies and COVID variants remain a risk, we are seeing significant sequential improvement in every major region.

我們很高興看到我們的勤奮和決心開始得到回報。隨著世界大部分地區重新開放，我們一直期待的被壓抑的旅行需求正在發生。儘管恢復速度各不相同，而且新冠病毒變異仍然是一個風險，但我們看到每個主要地區都出現了顯著的連續改善。

In the second quarter, system-wide RevPAR grew 234% year-over-year. Compared to 2019, RevPAR was down 36%, improving 17 percentage points versus the first quarter, with June RevPAR improving 24 percentage points versus the first quarter and down only 29 points versus 2019.

第二季度，全系統 RevPAR 年增 234%。與 2019 年相比，RevPAR 下降了 36%，比第一季提高了 17 個百分點，其中 6 月的 RevPAR 比第一季提高了 24 個百分點，與 2019 年相比僅下降了 29 個百分點。

Additionally, 30% of system-wide comparable hotels exceeded 2019 RevPAR levels in June. Adjusted EBITDA was $400 million, up 684% year-over-year. Performance was driven by strong leisure demand and rate growth. For the second quarter, U.S. leisure demand exceeded prior peak levels, with rates at 90% of prior peaks. This positive momentum continued into July with system-wide and U.S. leisure room nights and rate exceeding 2019 levels.

此外，6 月份，全系統 30% 的可比較飯店的 RevPAR 水準超過了 2019 年。調整後 EBITDA 為 4 億美元，年增 684%。強勁的休閒需求和房價成長推動了業績。第二季度，美國休閒需求超過了先前的峰值水平，為先前峰值的 90%。這種積極勢頭持續到 7 月份，全系統和美國的休閒間夜數和價格均超過 2019 年的水準。

Business transient also increased meaningfully throughout the quarter, with June RevPAR for the segment increasing 20 percentage points from the first quarter. We saw improving results in small and medium-sized businesses and positive momentum across larger accounts. In June, business transient room night demand was 70% of 2019 levels, with rate over 80% of 2019 levels. We continue to see progress in July with similar room night demand and rates at 90% of 2019 levels.

整個季度的業務瞬態也顯著增加，該部門 6 月的 RevPAR 比第一季增加了 20 個百分點。我們看到中小型企業的表現有所改善，大型客戶的正面動能也得到改善。 6月份，商務短期間夜需求為2019年水準的70%，比率超過2019年水準的80%。我們繼續看到 7 月的進展，間夜需求與 2019 年水準的 90% 類似。

Group performance in the quarter also improved sequentially, driven primarily by social groups given seasonally higher leisure demand. Overall, group demand increased nearly 20 percentage points sequentially from the first quarter, ending June at more than half of 2019 levels.

本季的集團業績也較上季有所改善，這主要是受到社會群體休閒需求季節性上升的推動。整體而言，集團需求較第一季連續成長近 20 個百分點，截至 6 月的需求量為 2019 年水準的一半以上。

Additionally, group bookings for next year are at rates above 2019 peaks. Approximately 99% of our hotels are now open and operating, including some of our largest urban and group properties. In the last few months, we were thrilled to celebrate the reopenings of the legendary Palmer House Hilton, the Chicago Hilton and the Hilton San Francisco Union Square.

此外，明年的團體預訂率將高於 2019 年的高峰。我們約 99% 的酒店現已開業並經營，其中包括一些最大的城市和集團酒店。在過去的幾個月裡，我們非常高興地慶祝傳奇的帕默樓希爾頓酒店、芝加哥希爾頓酒店和舊金山聯合廣場希爾頓酒店的重新開幕。

As government restrictions loosen and more people are vaccinated, we continue to see positive momentum in demand and an increasing ability to push rate. For July month-to-date, system-wide demand is 85% of 2019 levels, with rates equal to 2019. In the U.S., July RevPAR is roughly 85% of 2019 levels. And in China, RevPAR is now above prior peaks. With increasing transient bookings, digital traffic and group sales leads, we are optimistic about the forward trends.

隨著政府限制的放鬆和更多人接種疫苗，我們繼續看到需求的積極勢頭和推動疫苗接種率的能力不斷增強。 7 月至今，全系統需求為 2019 年水準的 85%，與 2019 年持平。在中國，RevPAR 目前已高於先前的峰值。隨著臨時預訂、數位流量和團體銷售線索的增加，我們對未來趨勢感到樂觀。

Turning to development. We delivered another robust quarter of growth, with net units increasing 7% year-over-year ahead of expectations due to strong openings in the U.S. and fewer overall removals. During the quarter, we added 119 hotels, totaling nearly 20,000 rooms and celebrated the 5-year anniversary of Tru with the opening of its 200th property. With nearly 270 hotels in development, Tru continues expanding across the U.S. and Canada as well as moving into new markets in the Caribbean and Latin America.

轉向發展。我們又實現了強勁的季度成長，由於美國的空置率強勁以及整體搬遷量減少，淨單位年增 7%，超出預期。本季度，我們新增了 119 家飯店，客房總數近 20,000 間，並透過開設第 200 家飯店來慶祝 Tru 成立 5 週年。 Tru 正在開發近 270 家酒店，繼續在美國和加拿大擴張，並進入加勒比海和拉丁美洲的新市場。

We were also thrilled to celebrate the highly anticipated opening of Resorts World Las Vegas last month, marking the first ground-up resort development on The Strip in over a decade. The property features 3 of our premium brands, Hilton, Conrad and LXR and adds 3,500 rooms to our portfolio, with expansive meeting and event space, 120,000 square foot casino, 40 world-class food and beverage options and a concert and entertainment venue with capacity for 5,000 attendees. This spectacular property raises the bar for Las Vegas and delivers on our long-standing promise to return to The Strip.

我們也很高興地慶祝備受期待的拉斯維加斯名勝世界上個月開業，這是十多年來拉斯維加斯大道上的第一個度假村開發案。該酒店擁有希爾頓、康萊德和LXR 等3 個優質品牌，並為我們的產品組合增添了3,500 間客房、寬敞的會議和活動空間、120,000 平方英尺的賭場、40 個世界一流的餐飲場所以及一個可容納人數的音樂會和娛樂場所適合 5,000 名與會者。這座壯觀的酒店提高了拉斯維加斯的標準，並兌現了我們重返拉斯維加斯大道的長期承諾。

Along with the recently opened Virgin Hotels Las Vegas Curio, we are now -- we now have more than 30 properties, totaling 11,000 rooms across 12 brands in the city. Las Vegas is also the first U.S. market to house all 3 of our luxury brands.

加上最近開幕的維珍拉斯維加斯 Curio 酒店，我們現在在該市擁有 12 個品牌的 30 多家酒店，總計 11,000 間客房。拉斯維加斯也是我們所有 3 個奢侈品牌在美國的第一個市場。

Earlier this month, we debuted our premier meetings and events focused brands Signia by Hilton, with the opening of the Signia Orlando Bonnet Creek. The property will undergo a multiphase transformation featuring the addition of more than 94,000 square feet of multifunctional meeting and event space designed for an elevated meeting experience. In the quarter, we also broke ground on the nearly 1,000 room Signia Atlanta scheduled to open in 2023. Our exceptional brands and industry-leading RevPAR premiums continue to drive a high-quality pipeline.

本月早些時候，隨著西嘉奧蘭多邦內溪酒店的開業，我們首次推出了專注於會議和活動的希爾頓西嘉品牌。該酒店將進行多階段改造，新增超過 94,000 平方英尺的多功能會議和活動空間，旨在提升會議體驗。在本季度，我們還破土動工了計劃於 2023 年開業的西嘉亞特蘭大酒店，該酒店擁有近 1,000 間客房。

In the quarter, we signed nearly 26,000 rooms, up 40% year-over-year and increasing from our first quarter pace given strength in the Americas and Asia Pacific regions. We ended the quarter with approximately 401,000 rooms in development, more than half of which are under construction. We had a record number of conversion signings in the quarter, representing 40 hotels and accounting for approximately 30% of our total signings, including the Conrad Chia Laguna, Sardinia, the Conrad Shanghai, which will be our largest Conrad in Asia with more than 725 rooms, and the Hotel 1000 LXR located just steps away from Seattle's iconic Pike Place Market.

本季度，我們簽約了近 26,000 間客房，年增 40%，考慮到美洲和亞太地區的強勁勢頭，增速較第一季有所增長。本季結束時，我們約有 401,000 間客房在開發中，其中一半以上正在建設中。本季我們的簽約酒店數量創歷史新高，共有40 家酒店，約佔簽約總數的30%，包括撒丁島嘉拉古納康萊德酒店、上海康萊德酒店（這將是我們在亞洲最大的康萊德飯店，擁有超過725 間飯店） Hotel 1000 LXR 距離西雅圖標誌性的派克市場僅幾步之遙。

Further expanding our all-inclusive and luxury portfolios, we announced the signing of 3 beachfront resorts in Mexico earlier this month: The Hilton Vallarta Riviera All-Inclusive Resort; the Hilton Tulum All-Inclusive Resort; and the Conrad Tulum, will add more than 1,500 rooms to our existing 70 hotel portfolio in Mexico, demonstrating our commitment to continued expansion across the region and growing our all-inclusive resort footprint. Travelers will soon be able to choose from an even wider variety of Hilton-branded all-inclusive resorts globally.

為了進一步擴大我們的全包式和豪華組合，我們於本月初宣佈在墨西哥簽署 3 個海濱度假村： 希爾頓巴亞爾塔里維埃拉全包式度假村；圖盧姆希爾頓全包式度假村；和圖盧姆康萊德酒店將為我們在墨西哥現有的 70 家酒店組合增加 1,500 多間客房，這表明我們致力於在整個地區持續擴張並擴大我們的全包式度假村足跡。旅客很快將能夠在全球範圍內選擇更多種類的希爾頓品牌全包式度假村。

We expect positive development trends to continue and remain confident in our expectations to deliver mid-single-digit net unit growth over the next several years. For 2021, we expect net unit growth in the 5% to 5.5% range, above prior expectations, given the pace of openings year-to-date.

我們預期正向的發展趨勢將持續下去，並對未來幾年實現中位數淨單位成長的預期保持信心。考慮到今年迄今的開業速度，我們預計 2021 年單位淨成長率將在 5% 至 5.5% 範圍內，高於先前的預期。

Delivering on guest desire for more flexibility in their travel experience and solving a long-time travel frustration, last month, we launched confirmed connecting rooms, a first in the industry, this innovative technology enables guests to easily book and instantly confirm at least 2 connecting rooms. As families and friends begin to reunite, reconnect and travel again, we're excited to create a seamless travel experience from booking through stay.

為了滿足客人對旅行體驗更加靈活的渴望，並解決長期旅行的煩惱，我們於上個月推出了業內首創的確認連通房，這項創新技術使客人能夠輕鬆預訂並即時確認至少 2 間連通房房間。隨著家人和朋友開始團聚、重新聯繫和再次旅行，我們很高興能夠打造從預訂到住宿的無縫旅行體驗。

We continue to prioritize unique opportunities to engage our nearly 120 million Honors members, driving value for them through our enhanced partnerships and points redemption offerings. In the quarter, membership grew 10% year-over-year. On average, our premium members are staying with us even more frequently than in 2019. For the quarter, Honors members accounted for 58% of occupancy, reaching a high of 61% in May, only 2% below May of 2019.

我們繼續優先考慮吸引近 1.2 億榮譽會員的獨特機會，透過我們加強的合作夥伴關係和積分兌換產品為他們創造價值。本季會員數量較去年同期成長 10%。平均而言，我們的高級會員入住我們的頻率比 2019 年更高。

As we head into the back half of the year, we know it's critical to lead with our culture, which was recently earned -- which recently earned us the #1 spot on DiversityInc's list of top 50 companies for diversity. We were also thrilled to invite all of our team members to return to our headquarters last week. The energy and excitement in the office is palpable, and we're thrilled to be back fostering a collaborative environment which allows for innovative thinking as we remain focused on our strategic priorities and the bright future ahead.

當我們進入今年下半年時，我們知道以我們的文化為引領至關重要，這種文化是最近贏得的——最近為我們贏得了 DiversityInc 多元化 50 強公司名單中的第一名。我們也很高興上週邀請所有團隊成員回到我們的總部。辦公室裡的活力和興奮是顯而易見的，我們很高興能夠回來營造一個協作環境，在我們繼續專注於我們的戰略重點和未來光明的未來的同時，允許創新思維。

With that, I'll now turn the call over to Kevin to give you more details on our results for the quarter.

現在，我將把電話轉給凱文，向您提供有關本季業績的更多詳細資訊。

Thanks, Chris, and good morning, everyone. During the quarter, system-wide RevPAR grew 233.8% versus the prior year on a comparable and currency-neutral basis as recovery accelerated driven by strong global vaccine rollouts, relaxed government restrictions and surging leisure demand, particularly in the U.S.

謝謝克里斯，大家早安。本季度，在可比較和貨幣中性的基礎上，全系統的RevPAR 比上年增長了233.8%，原因是全球疫苗的強勁推廣、政府限制的放鬆和休閒需求激增（尤其是在美國）推動經濟復甦加速。

As Chris mentioned, system-wide RevPAR was down 36.1% compared to 2019. Performance was largely balanced between occupancy and rate growth. Adjusted EBITDA was $400 million in the second quarter, and those results reflect relaxed travel restrictions and strengthening global demand. Management and franchise fees grew 220%, demonstrating the resiliency of our fee-based business model.

正如 Chris 所提到的，與 2019 年相比，整個系統的 RevPAR 下降了 36.1%。第二季調整後 EBITDA 為 4 億美元，這些結果反映了旅行限制的放鬆和全球需求的增強。管理費和特許經營費成長了 220%，證明了我們收費業務模式的彈性。

Additionally, results were helped by continued cost control at both the corporate and property levels. Our ownership portfolio posted a loss for the quarter due to the more challenged demand environment throughout Europe and Japan and related suspensions of hotel operations. Fixed operating costs further weighed on performance. Overall, the ownership segment performed better than expected, largely due to continued cost control. For the quarter, diluted earnings per share adjusted for special items was $0.56.

此外，公司和財產層面持續的成本控制也有助於績效的實現。由於整個歐洲和日本的需求環境更具挑戰性以及相關的飯店營運暫停，我們的所有權投資組合本季出現虧損。固定營運成本進一步影響了業績。整體而言，所有權部門的表現優於預期，這主要歸功於持續的成本控制。本季度，經特殊項目調整後的攤薄每股收益為 0.56 美元。

Turning to our regional performance. Second quarter comparable U.S. RevPAR grew 234% year-over-year and was down 31% versus 2019. Demand improved sequentially throughout the quarter, with occupancy averaging roughly 70% in June. Strong leisure demand, combined with improving business transient trends drove rate improvement across the U.S. with weekend ADR finishing June, down mid-single digits as compared to 2019 rate and weekday rates down in the high single digits.

轉向我們的區域表現。第二季美國可比 RevPAR 較去年同期成長 234%，較 2019 年下降 31%。強勁的休閒需求，加上商業瞬態趨勢的改善，推動了美國各地的費率改善，與 2019 年相比，週末 ADR 下降了中個位數，工作日費率下降了高個位數。

In the Americas outside the U.S., second quarter RevPAR increased 390% year-over-year and was down 54% versus 2019. While limited international travel weighed on overall performance, easing restrictions and strong leisure demand drove improving trends in June.

在美國以外的美洲地區，第二季的 RevPAR 年增 390%，較 2019 年下降 54%。

In Europe, RevPAR grew 470% year-over-year and was down 72% versus 2019. While the region saw month-over-month improvement, rising COVID cases and prolonged travel restrictions continued to weigh on performance.

在歐洲，每間可用客房收入年增 470%，與 2019 年相比下降 72%。

In the Middle East and Africa region, RevPAR increased 287% year-over-year and was down 35% versus 2019. Performance benefited from strong domestic leisure demand, with rate now nearly recovered to 2019 levels in July.

在中東和非洲地區，每間可用客房收入年增 287%，較 2019 年下降 35%。

In the Asia Pacific region, second quarter RevPAR grew 143% year-over-year and was down 33% versus 2019. RevPAR in China was down less than 9% as compared to 2019, with rising COVID cases in June temporarily disrupting strong performance trends in April and May.

在亞太地區，第二季的 RevPAR 年增 143%，較 2019 年下降 33%。 。

However, as Chris mentioned, China has since rebounded with RevPAR now trending above 2019 levels. In the rest of the Asia Pacific region, performance was tempered due to lockdowns in India and continued travel restrictions across Japan.

然而，正如克里斯所提到的，中國此後出現反彈，每間可用客房收入目前趨勢高於 2019 年的水平。在亞太地區其他地區，由於印度的封鎖和日本各地持續的旅行限制，業績受到影響。

Turning to development. As Chris mentioned, in the second quarter, we grew net units 7%. Our pipeline grew sequentially, totaling 401,000 rooms at the end of the quarter, with 62% of pipeline rooms located outside the U.S. Despite the challenges brought about by the pandemic, developer appetite for Hilton brands remained strong across the globe. As travel restrictions ease, regions prepare for recovery and owners focus on growth opportunities, development activity and interest is gaining momentum.

轉向發展。正如 Chris 所提到的，第二季我們的淨銷量成長了 7%。我們的待售客房數量環比增長，截至本季度末，客房總數達到 401,000 間，其中 62% 的待售客房位於美國境外。隨著旅行限制的放鬆，各地區為復甦做好準備，業主專注於成長機會，開發活動和興趣正在增強。

For the full year, we expect signings to increase in the high single to low double-digit range year-over-year. We expect net unit growth of 5% to 5.5%.

就全年而言，我們預計簽約人數將同比增長在高個位數到低兩位數的範圍內。我們預計淨單位成長率為 5% 至 5.5%。

Turning to the balance sheet. During the quarter, we fully repaid the outstanding $1.2 billion balance on our revolving credit facility. As we look ahead, we remain confident in our balance sheet and financial flexibility as we move forward into the recovery and move closer towards our target leverage. Further details on our second quarter can be found in the earnings release we issued earlier this morning.

轉向資產負債表。本季度，我們全額償還了循環信貸額度中 12 億美元的未償餘額。展望未來，隨著我們邁向復甦並接近我們的目標槓桿率，我們對我們的資產負債表和財務靈活性仍然充滿信心。有關第二季度的更多詳細信息，請參閱我們今天早上發布的收益報告。

This completes our prepared remarks. We would now like to open the line for any questions you may have. (Operator Instructions).

我們準備好的演講到此結束。我們現在願意為您解答任何問題。 （操作員說明）。

Chad, can we have our first question, please?

查德，我們可以問第一個問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions) And the first question will come from Stephen Grambling with Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）第一個問題將由高盛的 Stephen Grambling 提出。

You gave some great color on NUG, but I'd like to peel back the onion a bit more. Specifically, can you discuss how net unit growth expectations have evolved over the quarter as we look around the world, where your increased confidence comes from across things like brands, ads, leases, conversions and how the financing environment is changing as we consider not only this year but sustained growth beyond?

你為 NUG 帶來了一些很棒的色彩，但我想再剝一點洋蔥。具體來說，您能否討論一下當我們放眼全球時，本季的淨單位成長預期如何演變，您的信心增強來自於品牌、廣告、租賃、轉換等方面，以及融資環境如何變化，因為我們不僅考慮到今年還能持續成長嗎？

Yes. Stephen, thank you. Good question, and happy to give a little bit more color. If you think about around the world, on the development side, I think so goes the recovery sort of so goes the development is probably the simplest way to think about it. So versus our earlier expectations and why we're a bit more optimistic, obviously, and have raised our outlook for the year is largely driven by what we were seeing in faster recovery in the U.S. and faster recovery in Asia, really China. And I'd say those are sort of the largest drivers.

是的。史蒂芬，謝謝你。好問題，很高興能提供更多的色彩。如果你考慮世界各地的發展方面，我認為復甦也是如此，發展可能是最簡單的思考方式。因此，與我們先前的預期相比，我們顯然更加樂觀，並提高了今年的前景，這在很大程度上是由於我們看到美國和亞洲（實際上是中國）更快的復甦。我想說這些都是最大的驅動因素。

If you think about recovery, that's where -- as we suggested in the prepared comments, that's where we see the steepest slope of recovery. Europe is obviously -- we knew would be lagging and isn't contributing as much as the U.S. and China is at this point. But obviously, our expectation there is as the U.K. and Europe continue to open, we'll see a meaningful uptick there. So I think it's pretty much that simple. Slope of recovery steeper, more activity on the development side in terms of both signings and openings, people are back at it and picking up steam.

如果你考慮復甦，那就是——正如我們在準備好的評論中所建議的那樣，那就是我們看到復甦斜率最陡的地方。歐洲顯然——我們知道它會落後，而且目前的貢獻不如美國和中國那麼多。但顯然，我們的預期是，隨著英國和歐洲繼續開放，我們將看到那裡的經濟大幅成長。所以我認為事情就這麼簡單。復甦的斜率更加陡峭，開發方面的活動在簽約和空缺方面更加活躍，人們又重新開始並恢復活力。

On the conversions, I'd say just modestly better. We -- as you would note from prior calls, we've been -- we've had high expectations for conversions. We have some great conversion brands. The system is performing at the highest levels from a market share point of view than it's ever performed in our history, and I think that's a great leading indicator for opportunities to convince folks who are independent to come into the fold as well as folks that have weaker brands that are looking for a better performance to come into the fold, both of which are happening at a little bit better than our expectations. And so while we had -- we expected things to pick up in the conversion area, I would say, this year and then leading into next because a lot of -- some of the signings will take some time. Most of them have pretty quickly, but some of them will take some time in terms of CapEx work, property improvement programs and the like. It's modestly better than what were pretty high expectations.

在轉換方面，我想說只是稍微好一點。正如您在之前的電話會議中註意到的那樣，我們一直對轉換抱有很高的期望。我們有一些很棒的轉換品牌。從市場佔有率的角度來看，該系統的表現是我們歷史上最高水準的，我認為這是一個很好的領先指標，可以說服那些獨立的人和那些有機會的人加入。品牌正在尋求更好的表現，這兩個品牌的表現都比我們的預期要好一些。因此，雖然我們——我想說，我們預計今年轉換領域的情況會好轉，然後進入明年，因為很多——一些簽約將需要一些時間。他們中的大多數很快就完成了，但其中一些在資本支出工作、財產改善計劃等方面需要一些時間。它比相當高的期望要好一些。

In terms of the financing environment, I mean, there's a lot to discuss. I think -- so we can get to lots of other questions. I think the simple answer is it's improving. I mean the world is a big place. So again, following the slope of recovery, the U.S. and China, I would say, the financing markets are recovering most rapidly because markets are efficient. And performance is starting to really pick up and not just from an occupancy, but you're getting back to rate levels very rapidly, probably more rapidly than I've ever seen in my 40 years of doing this.

我的意思是，就融資環境而言，有很多值得討論的地方。我認為——這樣我們就可以解決很多其他問題。我認為簡單的答案是它正在改善。我的意思是世界很大。因此，我想說，隨著經濟的復甦，美國和中國的融資市場復甦最快，因為市場是有效的。業績開始真正回升，不僅僅是入住率，而且您正在非常快地恢復到房價水平，可能比我從事此行業 40 年來所見過的速度都要快。

What happens is the lender community starts to have more confidence. Rates are obviously hyper low and have been low and lenders need yield. And so the more comfort they get, that recovery is afoot and that there's going to be a recovery back to where we were and then beyond, the more they're willing to take the risk, a little bit further down on the risk spectrum and underwrite it.

發生的情況是貸款機構開始變得更有信心。利率顯然超低且一直很低，貸方需要收益。因此，他們越感到安慰，復甦正在進行中，並將恢復到我們原來的水平，然後超越，他們就越願意承擔風險，在風險範圍上進一步降低，承保它。

And so you're seeing pretty robust financing markets in China. The U.S. is still -- has ways to go. I mean you can look at the data out there, it's not anywhere near where it was, but it's improving. And my expectation is as you get into the fall, and I'm sure we'll talk about this, I'll leave it for other questions. And our belief, my belief is that we're going to continue to have very, very strong recovery in the fall and into next year, you're going to continue to see a gradual increase in financing that's available, certainly, here in the U.S. I think Europe will take a little longer. So a ways to go. I'm not saying it's back anywhere near where it was. It's a long way off. But of -- sort of off the floors of what we had seen last year.

所以你會看到中國的融資市場相當強勁。美國仍有很長的路要走。我的意思是你可以看看那裡的數據，它與以前的數據相差甚遠，但它正在改善。我的期望是，當你進入秋天時，我相信我們會討論這個問題，我會把它留給其他問題。我們的信念，我的信念是，我們將在秋季和明年繼續實現非常非常強勁的復甦，當然，您將繼續看到可用的融資逐漸增加。所以還有很長的路要走。我並不是說它又回到了原來的位置。距離還很遠。但與我們去年看到的情況有些不同。

Next question is from Carlo Santarelli with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Carlo Santarelli。

Chris, could you talk a little bit about how you guys plan to use key money in development spend? And obviously, in light of the financing environment that you just talked about and the way that's coming around, is it something you guys maybe rely on a little bit more in the near term and then start to wean away from it as we get more comfortable with kind of the outlook for new unit growth and things of that nature.

克里斯，您能談談您們計劃如何在開發支出中使用關鍵資金嗎？顯然，鑑於您剛才談到的融資環境以及正在發生的情況，您是否可能在短期內更多地依賴它，然後隨著我們變得更加舒適而開始逐漸擺脫它對新單位增長和類似性質的事物的展望。

Yes, that's a good question. We -- if you look at the numbers, we had a little bit higher key money in the quarter than we would typically have. What I would say is, I don't see anything that -- I don't think anything is changing materially, meaning, still over 90% of the deals that we are doing are dry deals. We're not spending -- we're not using the balance sheet anyway. So there's not any material shift, given what's going on in the broader macro environment, the financing markets. Nothing material that shifted.

是的，這是一個好問題。如果你看一下這些數字，我們本季的關鍵資金比通常情況下要高一些。我想說的是，我沒有看到任何事情——我認為任何事情都沒有發生實質性變化，也就是說，我們正在進行的交易中 90% 以上仍然是乾交易。我們沒有支出──無論如何我們也沒有使用資產負債表。因此，考慮到更廣泛的宏觀環境和融資市場的情況，並沒有任何重大變化。沒有任何物質發生變化。

The reason you're seeing a little bit heavier key money spend right now is a super positive story in the sense that both things that we've been working on for a long time and/or opportunities that have arisen because of the pandemic have sort of come together in an unusual way this year. So example, some of the bigger key money expenditures are iconic assets for our portfolio largely resort-oriented that we've been working on that will be generational. They'll be in the system for decades and decades and decades. So the Waldorf Astoria in Monarch Beach and Laguna, I've literally been working on that deal one way or another for 20 years, I think, between host and here. And that's in the system, an incredible addition to the Waldorf brand.

你現在看到關鍵資金支出增加的原因是一個超級積極的故事，因為我們長期以來一直在努力的事情和/或因大流行而出現的機會都已經排序今年以一種不尋常的方式聚集在一起。例如，一些較大的關鍵資金支出是我們投資組合的標誌性資產，主要以度假村為導向，我們一直在努力，這將是一代人的。他們將在系統中待上幾十年、幾十年、幾十年。所以位於莫納克海灘和拉古納的華爾道夫酒店，我想，我想，在東道主和這裡之間，我實際上已經以這種或那種方式致力於這項交易 20 年了。這就是系統中對華爾道夫品牌的令人難以置信的補充。

Resorts World, which I talked about in my prepared comments, 3,500 rooms on The Strip. We're basically the only major player on The Strip with a massive meetings platform and 3,500 rooms. We've been working on that for a number of years. Not a crazy amount of key money by any means, but relative to our normal expenditures, significant.

我在準備好的評論中談到了名勝世界，拉斯維加斯大道上有 3,500 間客房。我們基本上是拉斯維加斯大道上唯一擁有大型會議平台和 3,500 個房間的主要參與者。我們多年來一直致力於此。無論如何，這筆禮金並不是一筆瘋狂的金額，但相對於我們的正常支出來說，還是相當可觀的。

And then the deals that I talked about in Mexico, the 3 deals, 1,500 rooms, in Puerto Vallarta and then in Tulum, these are incredible assets that were either existing in the one case, in PV, was an existing hotel that was operating with another brand. And in the case of Tulum, was developed literally over 20 years to get the entitlements with another brand. And because of COVID and what has happened in the industry, presented an opportunity for us. And so that allowed us to enter the zone on hotels that would have taken us a decade to sort of pull together, and in a matter of 6 or 12 months, we're going to have these purpose-built incredible hotels in the system.

然後是我在墨西哥談到的交易，在巴亞爾塔港和圖盧姆的3 筆交易，1,500 間客房，這些都是令人難以置信的資產，要么存在於PV 的一個案例中，要么是一家正在營運的現有酒店另一個品牌。就 Tulum 而言，它的發展實際上已經超過 20 年，以獲得另一個品牌的權利。由於新冠疫情以及行業中發生的事情，為我們提供了機會。因此，這使我們能夠進入酒店領域，而這需要我們花費十年的時間才能齊心協力，在大約 6 或 12 個月內，我們將在系統中擁有這些專門建造的令人難以置信的酒店。

And so that's, I know, a long answer, but I view all of those, and then there's some others that I'm not going to be mentioning. But those are the big ones that's like incredible progress for us in all-inclusive, in resorts and in luxury. And those deals just don't come around that often. We're getting a few more of them now, as I said, aided by COVID. So maybe there -- I would say, our spending overall is going to be up probably this year and next year relative to 2020, but 2020 was a depressed year.

所以，我知道，這是一個很長的答案，但我查看了所有這些，然後還有一些我不會提及的其他問題。但這些都是重大的，對我們來說，在全包、度假村和豪華方面取得了令人難以置信的進步。而且這些交易並不常出現。正如我所說，在新冠疫情的幫助下，我們現在又增加了一些。所以也許 - 我想說，相對於 2020 年，我們今年和明年的總體支出可能會有所增加，但 2020 年是蕭條的一年。

If you look at it versus our normal run rate like '17, '18 and '19, honestly, I think our overall CapEx is sort of going to be within the ranges that we would have been. But again, I don't see anything -- we don't see anything material. We still think over 90% of our deals are going to be dry. And when we have these really unique opportunities, even with key money, they're very nice returns for us, and they're incredibly, I think, strategic and important to the system.

如果你將其與我們的正常運作率（如「17」、「18」和「19」）進行比較，老實說，我認為我們的整體資本支出將在我們本來應有的範圍內。但同樣，我沒有看到任何東西——我們沒有看到任何實質的東西。我們仍然認為超過 90% 的交易都將是枯燥的。當我們擁有這些真正獨特的機會時，即使有關鍵資金，它們對我們來說也是非常好的回報，而且我認為它們對系統來說具有戰略意義和重要性。

The next question will be from Joe Greff with JPMorgan.

下一個問題將由摩根大通的喬·格雷夫提出。

Given significant progress we've seen in the operating environment, given your balance sheet and where your leverage ratios are heading by the end of this year, I was hoping you could give us an update on how you're thinking about what you're looking at, which might be obvious, but -- and how you're looking at the timing of resuming capital return.

鑑於我們在營運環境中看到的重大進展，鑑於您的資產負債表以及今年年底的槓桿率走向，我希望您能給我們提供最新信息，說明您如何看待自己的業務看看，這可能是顯而易見的，但是——以及你如何看待恢復資本回報的時機。

Great. Great question. I figured I'd get it and I figured I'd get it early. So thank you. I know that's on everybody's mind. And we have obviously talked a bunch about it. We, ultimately, that's a decision we'll go to our board with. We have an upcoming meeting. We've had broader dialogue, but we haven't pinned it down. But I said on the last call that I was pretty confident that we would be reinstituting return of capital program next year. I still feel that way. Obviously, the slope of the recovery is even steeper. So I would say the update to that would be, I feel confident that we're going to do in the first half of next year. The exact date and time to be determined when we talk to our Board.

偉大的。很好的問題。我想我會得到它，而且我想我會早點得到它。所以謝謝。我知道每個人都這麼想。我們顯然已經談論了很多。最終，我們將向董事會做出這項決定。我們即將召開會議。我們進行了更廣泛的對話，但尚未確定。但我在上次電話會議上表示，我非常有信心我們將在明年重新實施資本回報計畫。我仍然有這樣的感覺。顯然，復甦的斜率更加陡峭。所以我想說的是，我有信心我們將在明年上半年更新。確切的日期和時間將在我們與董事會討論時確定。

But I think you should read the results of second quarter, you should read the commentary that Kevin and I gave in our prepared comments, plus everything, you're hopefully going to get in color to say that we're very optimistic. We know we're not -- we read the papers. I talk to a lot of people. We're not oblivious to the Delta variant and things that are going on in the world, but we're confident because we think we will power through that. The trends that we see real time are very strong and improving. We feel really good about that going to happen in the fall. And so yes, we -- every quarter that goes by, I think we feel better and better about where the recovery is going.

但我認為你應該閱讀第二季度的結果，你應該閱讀凱文和我在我們準備好的評論中給出的評論，加上所有內容，你希望能夠彩色地說我們非常樂觀。我們知道我們不是──我們讀了報紙。我和很多人交談過。我們並沒有忘記三角洲變體和世界上正在發生的事情，但我們有信心，因為我們認為我們將通過這一點。我們即時看到的趨勢非常強勁並且正在改善。我們對秋季發生的事情感到非常高興。所以，是的，我們——每個季度過去，我認為我們對復甦的進展感覺越來越好。

And so that should ultimately translate into our feeling better about starting to return capital because we'll be generating real significant free cash flow. In my mind next year, and we do not need to hoard it, our belief has always been that, as I said in my prior answer, we're going to be able to keep growing with very little use of our own balance sheet. And so we're going to give it back to folks. So my expectation is in the first half of next year, that program will resume, and we'll be having some discussion with our Board in the very near future.

因此，這最終應該轉化為我們對開始返還資本的感覺更好，因為我們將產生真正大量的自由現金流。在我看來，明年我們不需要囤積它，我們一直相信，正如我在之前的回答中所說，我們將能夠在很少使用我們自己的資產負債表的情況下保持增長。所以我們要把它還給人們。因此，我的期望是在明年上半年，該計劃將恢復，我們將在不久的將來與董事會進行一些討論。

The next question comes from Shaun Kelley with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的肖恩凱利。

Chris, you mentioned a couple of times now just talking about that recovery in the fall. So I was hoping we could dig in there a little bit. I know you're sort of probably right at the cusp of when you have too much color you can actually share on the corporate side. But can you talk about how that is starting to firm up, be it September, October, and what data you have? And then last quarter, you talked a little bit about an exit trajectory for the year of possibly something in the down 30% range, and I appreciate -- it may be a little early to give an update to that, but kind of how are you thinking about that relative to maybe where we were 3 months ago?

克里斯，你提到過幾次，現在只是在談論秋天的復甦。所以我希望我們能在那裡挖掘一點。我知道，當你有太多可以在公司方面實際分享的色彩時，你可能正處於風口浪尖。但您能談談這種情況是如何開始走強的嗎？然後上個季度，您談到了今年的退出軌跡，可能會下降 30% 的範圍，我很欣賞——現在更新這一點可能有點早，但情況如何您是否考慮過與 3 個月前相比？

Yes, totally fair question. That's the $64,000 question I think everybody is trying to figure out. So I'll give you -- I mean we do have some data points and some -- and I'll give you my opinion on top of it. I mean, we've obviously seen, as Kevin and I both described in the nuggets that we gave in our comments that you wouldn't find in the press release, we've seen really nice recovery, and that recovery has been across the board. Obviously, most -- the greatest strength in leisure, but significant pickup in business travel and significant pickup while -- further to go in the group side. And we continue to see that, notwithstanding the Delta variant and all the things going on. Like I got just last night, as an example, system-wide U.S., occupancy was 74% Trailing 7 days, 74%. That's with the urban markets -- that’s with some urban hotels not even open and those are in the comp set. And with all of our -- so all of the urban hotels, obviously, the urban environment has been lagging a little bit.

是的，完全公平的問題。我認為這是每個人都想弄清楚的價值 64,000 美元的問題。所以我會給你 - 我的意思是我們確實有一些數據點和一些 - 我會給你我的意見。我的意思是，我們顯然已經看到，正如凱文和我在我們在評論中給出的金塊中所描述的那樣，您在新聞稿中找不到，我們已經看到了非常好的復甦，而這種復甦已經遍及整個國家。顯然，大多數——休閒方面的優勢最大，但商務旅行方面顯著回升，而團體方面則有待進一步發展。儘管有 Delta 變體和所有正在發生的事情，我們仍然看到這一點。就像我昨晚得到的例子一樣，美國全系統的入住率為 74%，過去 7 天的入住率為 74%。這是城市市場的情況——一些城市酒店甚至還沒有開業，但這些酒店都在補償範圍內。顯然，我們所有的城市酒店的城市環境都有點滯後。

So what that says to you, like last night, if we're running 74%, that's not leisure. I mean while we have a leisure-oriented hotels, we have a lot of business-oriented hotels. And so mid-week occupancies at that level are definitely reflective of business travel being back. And we've seen it literally -- it's funny sort of post Memorial Day. I mean you just saw the shift. You just saw a shift where weekday occupancies went up 10% or 20%, at any given night, went up 10 or 20 percentage points. And that was business travel, dominated by small and medium-sized businesses, by the way.

所以這對你來說意味著什麼，就像昨晚一樣，如果我們跑了 74%，那就不是休閒。我的意思是，雖然我們有休閒型飯店，但我們也有很多商務型飯店。因此，周中這一水平的入住率肯定反映了商務旅行的回歸。我們已經從字面上看到了這一點——陣亡將士紀念日後的情況很有趣。我的意思是你剛剛看到了轉變。您剛剛看到了一個轉變，工作日的入住率上升了 10% 或 20%，在任何特定的夜晚，上升了 10 或 20 個百分點。順便說一句，這就是商務旅行，以中小型企業為主。

But even pre-COVID, keep in mind, 80% of our business travel was small and medium-sized business, right? So that's sort of currently what's going on. I know your question is forward looking, and I promise you I'm going to get to that. I think the trajectory, my own view, and I think the data sort of supports this, as you get into August, what's going to happen is you're going to continue to have massive surge in leisure travel because everybody wants to get out, notwithstanding, again, the Delta variants and the like. We've not seen impact in sort of consumer behavior from that. So I think you're going to have continued very good strength in the leisure.

但請記住，即使在新冠疫情之前，我們 80% 的商務旅行都是中小型企業，對吧？這就是目前正在發生的事情。我知道你的問題是前瞻性的，我向你保證我會解決這個問題。我認為軌跡、我自己的觀點以及我認為數據都支持這一點，當你進入八月時，將會發生的事情是休閒旅行將繼續大幅增長，因為每個人都想出去，儘管如此，還是有Delta變體等等。我們還沒有看到這對消費者行為的影響。所以我認為你在閒暇時會繼續保持很好的體力。

I do think in August, you'll -- as you always do, you will see business transient fall off a little bit, right, just because people are going to be, like they always do, they're going to be not traveling for business as much and going on more vacations. And it's sort of the last hurrah before maybe a lot of people going back to work. And the kids are finally going back to school and all that fun stuff.

我確實認為在八月，你會——就像往常一樣，你會看到業務短暫性下降一點，對吧，只是因為人們會像往常一樣，不會旅行商務旅行以及更多的假期。這可能是許多人重返工作崗位前的最後一次歡呼。孩子們終於要回到學校了，享受所有有趣的事。

But when you get to the fall, and limited -- we have limited data, obviously, this far out. So this is -- I gave you data points that I have real time today. When you get 60, 90 days out, business transient stats, a lot of the bookings haven't occurred. So this is where it gets into my view of what I think will happen. I think you get after Labor Day, I do believe -- I'm not a health expert, but I'm talking to a lot of them. I do believe we will have powered through the Delta thing, if you look at the stats on hospitalization and the like, they're really not, not terrible.

但當你到了秋天，而且很有限——我們的數據顯然是有限的。這就是——我給你們提供了我今天掌握的即時數據點。當你獲得 60 天、90 天的商務短暫統計數據時，很多預訂都還沒有發生。所以這就是我對我認為將會發生的事情的看法。我想你會在勞動節之後得到，我確實相信 - 我不是健康專家，但我正在與他們中的許多人交談。我確實相信我們將透過達美航空的事情來推動，如果你看看住院等方面的統計數據，它們真的不，不可怕。

If you look at what's happened in the U.K. and we're sort of 3 or 4 weeks behind them, the patterns there right now are quite good. They have infection rates down 50% on a trailing 12-day basis over there. So I think there's a lot of reasons to be optimistic that we sort of power through that. And when we get to the fall, here's what I think we do know, kids are going back to school. I mean, we'll debate whether they're wearing masks or not. Some places, yes, but they're going back to school, and I'm pretty confident in that.

如果你看看英國發生的事情，你會發現我們比他們落後了 3 到 4 週，現在的模式非常好。那裡的感染率在過去 12 天下降了 50%。所以我認為有很多理由樂觀地認為我們能夠透過這一點發揮作用。當我們進入秋天時，我認為我們確實知道，孩子們將重返學校。我的意思是，我們將討論他們是否戴口罩。是的，有些地方，但他們要重返學校，我對此很有信心。

And offices are opening. I mean they may open different times. Some people, you're reading they’re going to push it a month or whatever. Obviously, I said we're open. We're open and operating here at our -- at all of our headquarters. But you're going to have people back at work, which means with kids in school, with babysitters and with people in the office, you're going to have more propensity to want to travel.

辦事處正在開放。我的意思是他們可能會在不同的時間開放。有些人，你讀到他們會延後一個月或其他時間。顯然，我說過我們是開放的。我們在我們所有的總部都開放並運作。但人們將會重返工作崗位，這意味著孩子們在學校、保姆和辦公室裡有工作人員，您將更有可能想去旅行。

And when we talk to customers, again, I can't give you the booking data because it's too far out. When we talk to customers, anecdotally, it supports all of that that when you get into the fall, people are going to be traveling. There's both pent-up demand, okay, if things they've been needing to do, and then there's just demand, generally, to -- for folks to be able to run their businesses. And so I think as you get into the fall, you're going to see the natural reduction in the leisure, as we always do, because now kids are in school. They weren't last year. Kids are in school, people are back in the office, they don't have as much time to go on vacation.

當我們與客戶交談時，我再次無法向您提供預訂數據，因為它太遙遠了。有趣的是，當我們與客戶交談時，它支持了所有這些，當你進入秋天時，人們將會去旅行。好吧，如果他們一直需要做的事情，那麼既有被壓抑的需求，也有一般來說，人們能夠經營自己的企業的需求。所以我認為，當你進入秋天時，你會看到休閒時間自然減少，就像我們一直在做的那樣，因為現在孩子們都在上學。他們不是去年的。孩子們上學了，人們回到了辦公室，他們沒有那麼多時間去度假。

I do believe, again, I can't prove it, but my belief is leisure will be elevated for a while because we're still living in a bit of a hybrid world. But I think business transient will come back. Group will obviously take a little longer gestation period, but group will definitely be coming back, the booking trends into the third, particularly the fourth quarter are much better than they've been.

我確實相信，我無法證明這一點，但我相信休閒會在一段時間內得到提升，因為我們仍然生活在一個混合的世界。但我認為商業短暫會回來。團體預訂顯然需要更長的醞釀期，但團體肯定會回來，第三季度，特別是第四季度的預訂趨勢比以往好得多。

And I think we're motoring forward. In terms of -- last time, I believe I said that I think we'd be back to sort of 70% by the end of the year, of '19 levels. And obviously, I feel better. So while we're not giving guidance, so I'm not going to do it. We're not ready to start doing that. There's still enough uncertainty, we want to wait. We do forecast, okay? I mean we're not -- it's not Camp Runamuck here. We are looking at our numbers.

我認為我們正在向前邁進。就上次而言，我相信我說過我認為到今年年底我們將恢復到 19 年水準的 70%。顯然，我感覺好多了。因此，雖然我們沒有提供指導，所以我不會這樣做。我們還沒準備好開始這樣做。仍然有足夠的不確定性，我們想等待。我們做預測，好嗎？我的意思是我們不是──這裡不是魯納馬克營。我們正在關注我們的數字。

And I'd say our view is demand levels probably -- RevPAR levels are probably in the U.S. and globally somewhere circa 80% versus the 70% I thought. In our current thinking, demand levels probably back to 85%. So we're getting there. And we're -- I mean, again, much -- I said last time, recovery has been much steeper than we thought. I say it again today. Just things have been coming back more quickly than we would have thought. We knew they'd come back. Obviously, you all know I've been optimistic about the recovery, but it's even better than I would have thought.

我想說的是，我們的觀點可能是需求水準——美國和全球的 RevPAR 水準可能約為 80%，而我認為是 70%。按照我們目前的想法，需求水準可能會回到 85%。所以我們正在實現目標。我上次說過，我們的復甦速度比我們想像的快得多。今天我再說一次。只是事情的恢復速度比我們想像的還要快。我們知道他們會回來。顯然，你們都知道我對復甦持樂觀態度，但情況比我想像的還要好。

I think one of the most surprising things, although it shouldn't be to any of us because as I kid our team, the laws of economics are alive and well. And the most surprising thing is how quickly rate comes back. But that's -- again, that's just demand, right? We're pricing demand, we're being really smart about it. But I do believe when this -- when we look back on this recovery, the most unusual thing, relative to any other period of my almost 40 years of doing this will be just a rapid return of rate.

我認為這是最令人驚訝的事情之一，儘管這不應該對我們任何人來說，因為當我欺騙我們的團隊時，經濟規律仍然存在並且很好。最令人驚訝的是利率恢復的速度有多快。但這只是需求，對吧？我們對需求進行定價，我們對此非常聰明。但我確實相信，當我們回顧這次復甦時，相對於我近 40 年從事此行業的任何其他時期而言，最不尋常的事情將是利率的快速回歸。

The next question is from Smedes Rose with Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Smedes Rose。

I just wanted to follow up on that. I wanted to follow up a little bit on that. I think in your opening remarks, you said that your group bookings are trending greater now in 2022 than they were in 2019, which I think is a pretty big positive increase sequentially from what you've mentioned on your first quarter call. And I was just hoping you could maybe talk a little bit more about the composition of those groups and what you're seeing on the rate side. And maybe just kind of a little more color around folks' willingness to book group at this point.

我只是想跟進此事。我想對此進行一些跟進。我認為您在開場白中表示，2022 年的團體預訂趨勢比 2019 年要大，我認為與您在第一季電話會議中提到的相比，這是一個相當大的積極增長。我只是希望你能多談談這些群體的組成以及你在利率方面看到的情況。也許現在人們對團體預訂的意願有了更多的了解。

Yes. Still -- great question, still building. What I said is that all of our bookings for 2022 are at rates that are greater than 2019. So to be specific, rate. I didn't say volume. Volume is still a bit off just because it takes time to build the book. So my expectation is we get closer to next year and into next year -- in the year for the -- later in this year, particularly when you get past this Delta wave and then in the year, for the year, we'll be a barn burner year, bigger than anything we've ever seen in the year for the year simply because people have to meet. It takes time to plan it. They want to sort of get through their budget season before they know how much money they have.

是的。儘管如此——很好的問題，仍在建設中。我所說的是，我們 2022 年所有的預訂價格都高於 2019 年。我沒說音量。數量仍然有點少，只是因為這本書需要時間。所以我的期望是，我們會越來越接近明年，進入明年——今年晚些時候——特別是當你度過了這波三角洲浪潮之後，然後在今年，今年，我們將這是穀倉燃燒的一年，比我們在這一年中見過的任何一年都重要，因為人們必須見面。需要時間來規劃。他們希望在知道自己有多少錢之前先度過預算季節。

But I'm not worried about the volumes next year. Again, they're a bit -- they're not where we were at '19. They're close, but they're not there, but the rate is above. And so what I've been -- honestly, what I've been saying to our teams is be really careful, like we -- there's going to be a monumental amount of demand, we don't want to give it away. We want to make sure that we're pricing. Even though we're not at the volumes now, my expectation, very strongly, is it's all going to fill in. It just takes it a little bit longer, given what's the reason for this recession being a health issue. And sort of getting through the final stages of that, in my opinion, is required before you really get the momentum on the volume. And so that's why rates are up is because we're being super disciplined, recognizing that there's a limited amount of meeting space, there's going to be a gargantuan amount of demand, and we can be a bit patient, I think, given what's going on.

但我並不擔心明年的銷量。再說一次，他們有點——他們不是我們 19 年的樣子。他們很接近，但他們不在那裡，但比率高於。所以我一直以來 - 老實說，我一直對我們的團隊說的是要非常小心，就像我們一樣 - 將會有巨大的需求，我們不想放棄它。我們想確保我們的定價。儘管我們現在還沒有達到數量，但我非常強烈地期望這一切都會被填滿。在我看來，在你真正獲得銷售的動力之前，需要完成最後階段。這就是費率上漲的原因，因為我們非常自律，認識到會議空間有限，需求量巨大，我認為，考慮到目前的情況，我們可以有點耐心在。

Next question is from Thomas Allen with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的湯瑪斯艾倫。

So on net unit growth, you've obviously seen some great progression in terms of your guide, and you gave some helpful color earlier. But do you think you can get back to the 6% to 7% unit growth you were putting up pre-COVID? And if so, when?

因此，在淨單位增長方面，您顯然已經在指南方面看到了一些巨大的進步，並且您之前提供了一些有用的顏色。但您認為您能恢復到新冠疫情之前的 6% 到 7% 的單位成長率嗎？如果是的話，什麼時候？

Yes, I do. And I think it's probably sometime between '23 and '24, Kevin?

是的，我願意。我認為這可能是 23 年到 24 年之間的某個時間，凱文？

Yes.

是的。

Kevin is also Head of Development. So I want to make sure he's -- before I commit to him. Yes, I think it's sometime in '23, '24. Probably more '24 just because you got to get through the -- if you look at starts last year, you'd look at -- I mean, if you look at the progression, you'll see when we're done last year, we were down in starts. This year, we'll be down modestly, not nearly as much as last year in starts. And I think that's the bottom. And then I think next year, we'll be ramping up in starts. And I think if you just play that through, that's what gets us in the mid-single digits for the next sort of couple of years, 2 or 3 and then I think you're back in business in the 6% to 7% range.

凱文還是開發主管。所以我想在我向他做出承諾之前確保他是。是的，我想是 23 年、24 年的某個時候。可能更多的是'24只是因為你必須完成 - 如果你看看去年的開始，你會看到 - 我的意思是，如果你看看進展，你會看到去年我們什麼時候完成，我們的開局就落後了。今年，我們的開工率將略有下降，不會像去年那麼嚴重。我認為這就是底部。然後我想明年我們會加大啟動。我認為，如果你堅持下去，這就是讓我們在接下來的幾年、兩三年內保持在中個位數的原因，然後我認為你會在 6% 到 7% 的範圍內恢復業務。

Yes, if the average construction time or gestation period in the pipeline is 2.5 or 3 years, you've got to be 2.5 or 3 years past the bottom before you get back to your old run rate.

是的，如果管道的平均施工時間或醞釀期為 2.5 或 3 年，那麼您必須在谷底過後 2.5 或 3 年才能恢復到原來的運行速度。

And the next question is from Robin Farley from UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的羅賓法利 (Robin Farley)。

Yes, I wanted to ask you about the pipeline as well. You mentioned that conversions were -- I think you said 30% of signings. I'm wondering what percent of openings was in Q2 and maybe what you expect it to be for the full year? And then just on the theme of pipeline, you mentioned mid-single digits for the next 2 or 3 years. I think last quarter, you had said that 2022 might be kind of in the 4% to 5% range, but maybe lower than this year, just given that there was some kind of construction catch up this year. So I'm wondering with the higher unit growth rate here in '21, does that carry through to sort of continued acceleration into '22? Or in fact, is it bringing forward some things you thought would open in '22 that kind of bring forward into '21, and so maybe we'd still see that slightly lower rate closer to 4% next year than the 5% for '22?

是的，我也想問你有關管道的問題。你提到轉換率是——我想你說的是簽約量的 30%。我想知道第二季度的職缺百分比是多少，也許您預計全年的職缺百分比是多少？然後就管道主題而言，您提到了未來 2 或 3 年的中個位數。我想上個季度，您曾說過 2022 年的成長率可能會在 4% 到 5% 的範圍內，但可能會低於今年，因為今年有某種建設趕上了。所以我想知道 21 年單位成長率較高，這是否會持續加速到 22 年？或者事實上，它是否會將一些你認為會在 22 年開放的事情提前到 21 年，所以也許我們仍然會看到明年的利率略低於 4%，比 5% 低一些。

Yes, Robin, thanks. All good questions, I think I've got it all. I'll try to go in order. I think on the conversion front, openings were lower. I don't remember the exact percentage, but they were circa 10% of openings for the quarter. And that was just timing. I'd say, last year, we were sort of 19%, 20% of openings. I think this year, it will be that or maybe even a little bit higher given sort of the number of signings we had in the second quarter. And so that's -- I think that's a good way to think about it.

是的，羅賓，謝謝。所有的問題都很好，我想我已經明白了。我會盡力按順序進行。我認為在轉換方面，空缺較低。我不記得確切的百分比，但大約佔該季度空缺職位的 10%。那隻是時機。我想說，去年，我們的職缺比例約為 19%、20%。我認為今年，考慮到我們第二季的簽約數量，這個數字將會是這個數字，甚至可能會更高一些。所以我認為這是一個很好的思考方式。

And look, we are doing more conversions. Very happy with the conversions in the second quarter, really nice mix between hard brands, soft brands, conversions from independents, conversions from other brands regionally. So very happy with that. But that said, our pace of deliveries of new builds is going up as well. So it's sort of hard -- it's a little bit harder for that percentage to move. And of course, that's all baked into our outlook.

看，我們正在做更多的轉換。對第二季的轉換非常滿意，硬品牌、軟品牌、獨立品牌的轉換、區域內其他品牌的轉換之間的完美結合。對此非常滿意。但話雖如此，我們新建築的交付速度也正在加快。所以這有點困難——這個百分比的變化有點困難。當然，這一切都融入了我們的觀點。

The idea of -- I'll do the third one next, the idea of '22 being affected, not as much. I mean, I think '22 is going to be about what we expect, maybe a little bit of timing pull forward, replaced by a little bit more conversions. So 2022 is about the same as we thought. And then, yes, you picked up on, we said 4% to 5% for the next several years, we were not pointing to any one specific year when we said 4% to 5%. And now we're saying mid-single digits, which, of course, 4% to 5% is mid-single digits. So it's about the same, but I think what you're hearing is a little bit more optimism about the future of net unit growth given what's been going on lately.

接下來我會做第三個想法，即「22」受到影響的想法，但影響不大。我的意思是，我認為 22 將會是我們所期望的，也許時間提前一點，取而代之的是更多的轉換。所以2022年和我們想像的差不多。然後，是的，你注意到了，我們說未來幾年為 4% 到 5%，當我們說 4% 到 5% 時，我們並不是指任何一個特定年份。現在我們說的是中個位數，當然，4% 到 5% 是中個位數。所以情況大致相同，但我認為考慮到最近發生的情況，您聽到的是對淨單位成長的未來更加樂觀。

Next question is from Richard Clarke from Bernstein.

下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的理查德·克拉克。

Just wanted to ask your sort of opinion, your thoughts on labor shortages in the U.S. And there's been some commentary around drops in service levels. Obviously, it's across the whole industry. But how much truth is there in that? Or is this working the other way, you actually being able to realize some sort of bigger efficiencies by working with less on the hotel side level?

只是想問您的看法，您對美國勞動力短缺的看法。顯然，這是整個行業的情況。但這有多少真實性呢？或者這是否是另一種方式，您實際上能夠透過在酒店層面減少工作來實現某種更高的效率？

Yes, thanks, Rick. It's a great question. Labor shortage is a real issue, probably the single biggest issue that we're dealing with that is definitely not just for Hilton, but industry -- all service industries and manufacturing and a lot of your supply chain issues that you're reading about every day. All of this is sort of interconnected to not having enough labor. At a high level, I think it will largely resolve itself over the next couple of quarters in the sense that I think there are a lot of complex reasons behind it. Some of it is obviously health. People still don't feel like, particularly with the Delta variant now that they should go back to work, some people, because they're worried about their health because -- we haven't had kids in schools, so we don't effectively have day care. There are women in the workforce where it's been most dramatically impacted because they have to stay home to take care of kids.

是的，謝謝，里克。這是一個很好的問題。勞動力短缺是一個真正的問題，可能是我們正在處理的最大的問題，這絕對不僅是希爾頓的問題，而且是整個行業的問題——所有服務業和製造業以及您正在閱讀的許多供應鏈問題天。這一切都與勞動力不足有關。從較高的層面來看，我認為這個問題將在接下來的幾個季度內自行解決，因為我認為背後有許多複雜的原因。其中一些顯然是健康的。人們仍然不喜歡，特別是對於三角洲變體，有些人現在應該回去工作，因為他們擔心自己的健康，因為——我們還沒有孩子上學，所以我們不有效地進行日托。勞動力中的女性受到的影響最為嚴重，因為她們必須待在家中照顧孩子。

And then some of the government programs that were really important last year in the depths of this crisis have -- aren't as important right now when there's a ton of opportunity for employment and that is unemployment insurance, the federal top-up. But that goes away in early September. So I think when you get kids back in school, we get past these -- hopefully, the last wave with Delta and unemployment insurance goes away in the early fall, I think you're going to start to see a significant easing of the issues on the labor side.

去年在這場危機最嚴重的時候，有些政府計畫確實很重要，但現在卻不再那麼重要了，因為就業機會很多，那就是失業保險、聯邦補充資金。但這種情況到九月初就會消失。所以我認為當你讓孩子們回到學校時，我們會克服這些問題 - 希望達美航空和失業保險的最後一波浪潮會在初秋消失，我認為你將開始看到問題的顯著緩解在勞工方面。

In terms of what -- its impact on margins, given that we're able to -- while there are service issues all of us are having, we're obviously working awfully hard to deliver great service. And I think we are doing a very good job given the difficult circumstances. We are doing it with less labor. And so ironically, given demand and given the ability to price the demand, margins are, in many cases, unbelievably high because you're getting effectively rates that are consistent with what you had before, and you can't get the labor, so you just have less cost. That obviously is a temporary thing. You're going to have to have more labor ultimately in the hotels.

就其對利潤率的影響而言，考慮到我們有能力，雖然我們所有人都遇到服務問題，但我們顯然正在非常努力地提供優質服務。我認為，考慮到困難的情況，我們做得非常好。我們用更少的勞動力就能做到這一點。諷刺的是，考慮到需求並考慮到對需求進行定價的能力，在許多情況下，利潤率高得令人難以置信，因為你得到的有效利率與之前的水平一致，而你卻無法獲得勞力，所以你只是花費更少。這顯然是暫時的事。最終你將不得不在酒店僱用更多的勞動力。

Having said that, long term, we've done a bunch of things in the crisis in terms of testing and learning on different ways to change the operating model, particularly as it relates to housekeeping and food and beverage and then a whole host of other smaller things where we think we can deliver great experience for our customers and do it more efficiently. And so I think when it all gets flushed through, and we're on the other side of this and through the stresses and strains on the labor issues we're talking about, I think we have developed a plan to have higher-margin businesses across all the major brands. And so yes, it's a big issue. We're spending a lot of time on it, but I do -- as the old adage goes, this too, I think, shall pass.

話雖如此，從長遠來看，我們在危機中做了很多事情，測試和學習改變營運模式的不同方法，特別是與客房服務、食品和飲料以及其他一系列相關的方法。提供出色的體驗並且更有效率地完成更小的事情。因此，我認為，當這一切都得到解決時，我們處於另一邊，透過我們正在討論的勞工問題的壓力和緊張，我認為我們已經制定了一項計劃，以擁有更高利潤的業務涵蓋所有主要品牌。是的，這是一個大問題。我們在這上面花了很多時間，但我確實這麼做了——正如古老的格言所說，我認為這也會過去。

And the next question is from Bill Crow with Raymond James.

下一個問題是比爾·克勞和雷蒙德·詹姆斯提出的。

A clarification and a question. The clarification is, I think you mentioned that RevPAR was down 29% in June relative to '19 numbers. And did you say that it was going to be closer to 20% down in the fourth quarter as we pivot to business travel? That's the clarification.

一個澄清和一個問題。需要澄清的是，我想您提到 6 月的 RevPAR 相對於 19 年的數字下降了 29%。您是否說過，隨著我們轉向商務旅行，第四季的下降幅度將接近 20%？這就是澄清。

Yes, I did.

是的，我做到了。

The question, I guess, goes to your discussion about rate being the biggest surprise. I'm just -- I'm wondering if we're already at a point where we can declare victory over rate integrity maybe for the first time in any recovery, right? Or do we have to wait until we get into business travel and really see what lies beneath this leisure surge?

我想，問題在於您關於利率是最大驚喜的討論。我只是 - 我想知道我們是否已經到了可以宣布戰勝利率完整性的地步，也許這在任何復甦中都是第一次，對嗎？或者我們必須等到進入商務旅行領域才能真正了解休閒浪潮背後的原因？

Yes. On the first one, I answered it, well, maybe you didn't hear because I was -- and I apologize talking over you. But yes, on the first. That's what I said, to clarify the first question.

是的。在第一個問題上，我回答了，好吧，也許你沒有聽到，因為我——我很抱歉談論你。但是，是的，首先。我這麼說是為了澄清第一個問題。

You know me, Bill, I tend to be a little -- under promise, over deliver is my theory in life, so I don't want to declare victory yet on rate. I meant what I said. I mean I've been doing this a long time, and been through bunches of recessions at this point. And what I'm seeing is very atypical. So -- and I do believe that into the fall and next year, we're going to continue to have robust demand and improvement. So I think the rate story, as I said in my earlier comment, when we look back on it, I think that's going to be the real difference in recovery here, but I don't know about declaring victory. George W. Bush did it on an aircraft carrier. It didn't work out for him.

你了解我，比爾，我傾向於有點——承諾不足，交付過度是我的人生理論，所以我不想在速度上宣布勝利。我說的就是這個意思。我的意思是我已經這樣做很久了，並且此時經歷了一系列的經濟衰退。我所看到的情況非常不典型。因此，我確實相信，到秋季和明年，我們將繼續擁有強勁的需求和改進。因此，我認為利率故事，正如我在之前的評論中所說，當我們回顧它時，我認為這將是這裡復甦的真正區別，但我不知道宣布勝利。喬治·W·布希在航空母艦上做到了這一點。這對他來說沒有成功。

It didn't work out so well.

效果不太好。

But listen, it's nice to see. But it's -- again, it's just a function of demand. And then being smart in how do you price demand.

但聽著，很高興看到。但這只是需求的函數。然後聰明地了解如何為需求定價。

Our next question is from Patrick Scholes with Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Patrick Scholes。

Quick question here, and this is sort of just sort of looking for a ballpark answer. But with the labor issue out there, what percentage of your hotels right now are unable to sell full inventory due to staffing shortages?

這裡是一個簡單的問題，這有點像是尋找一個大概的答案。但由於勞動力問題，目前有多少酒店因人員短缺而無法出售全部庫存？

I can't -- I don't have a scientific answer for you. I would say, sort of atmospherically, I think it's a relatively small percentage of our portfolio. It definitely -- there are definitely some hotels that can't because I've talked to some owners, but -- and I was with a bunch of owners out of Dallas this week and labor was probably the #1 topic because it's what everybody's talking about. But I'm not -- I'm just giving you the atmosphere, so I don't -- we don't -- I don't have our data on it. I think that it is an issue but not a significant issue.

我不能——我沒有科學的答案給你。我想說，從某種意義上來說，我認為這在我們的投資組合中所佔的比例相對較小。肯定有一些酒店不能，因為我已經和一些業主談過了，但是，本週我和達拉斯的一群業主在一起，勞動力可能是第一大話題，因為這是每個人的問題談論。但我不是——我只是給你們營造一種氛圍，所以我沒有——我們沒有——我沒有這方面的數據。我認為這是一個問題，但不是一個重要問題。

And by the way, it's helping to a degree -- it's also helping with rate because in some markets where they can't, they're reducing capacity and driving rate, which, by the way, back to Bill Crow, when we're done with it, maybe we can declare victory that we were actually really smart about not only rate recovery, but sort of how we manage occupancy versus rate to drive the best profitability. So in the hotels where they are having issues, in many of them, and I can think of a few who I just talked to, are having great success in sort of moderating occupancy levels down and then driving it on the top line.

順便說一句，它在一定程度上有所幫助——它也有助於提高費率，因為在一些他們做不到的市場，他們正在減少運力和駕駛率，順便說一句，回到比爾·克勞，當我們「完成後，也許我們可以宣布勝利，因為我們實際上不僅在房價恢復方面非常聰明，而且在如何管理入住率與房價以推動最佳盈利能力方面也非常聰明。因此，在他們遇到問題的酒店中，在許多酒店中，我能想到我剛剛交談過的一些酒店，在降低入住率然後推動營收方面取得了巨大成功。

And net-net, they're making more money than if they had the incremental labor and they opened up the capacity. They're just -- their profitability is higher. So it's not all a bad story. Long term, obviously, the labor issues we have to sort -- I mean I already gave my answer. I do think they'll sort. There are a bunch of things we're doing to make sure that our system has unique opportunities to access labor and, ultimately, to deliver the kind of service we want to deliver, we do need to get more labor in the hotels. But at the moment, from an owner point of view, in many cases, some are limiting capacity, but I think it's a relatively small percentage.

淨淨地說，與增加勞動力並開放產能相比，他們賺的錢更多。他們只是──他們的獲利能力更高。所以這並不全然是一個糟糕的故事。顯然，從長遠來看，我們必須解決勞工問題——我的意思是我已經給了答案。我確實認為他們會排序。我們正在做很多事情來確保我們的系統有獨特的機會獲得勞動力，並最終提供我們想要提供的服務，我們確實需要在酒店獲得更多的勞動力。但目前，從業主的角度來看，很多情況下，有些是限產的，但我認為這個比例還是比較小的。

Next question will be from David Katz with Jefferies.

下一個問題將由傑弗里斯的大衛·卡茨提出。

Two questions, if I may. Within the sort of franchise fees line item, we're sort of in a moment where it's -- candidly, nothing is easy to model, I assume, for either of us. But that one in particular was much larger than what we had, and I know that there is a number of things in there. Getting to franchise fees should be straightforward. But Kevin, if you could give us just a little insight on the other pieces that are in there, right? There's credit card fees and there are some royalties in there and sort of how those flow, a little modeling would be welcome.

如果可以的話，有兩個問題。在特許經營費項目中，我們正處於一個這樣的時刻——坦白說，我想，對我們倆來說，沒有什麼是容易建模的。但那個東西比我們擁有的要大得多，而且我知道裡面有很多東西。獲得特許經營費應該很簡單。但是凱文，如果你能給我們一些關於其中其他作品的一些見解，對嗎？有信用卡費用，還有一些特許權使用費，以及這些費用的流動方式，歡迎進行一些建模。

Yes, David, it's hard and easy all at the same time. I mean, basically, overall fee growth was a bit lower than overall RevPAR growth, that's your question. And the real -- the short answer is, yes, license fees are growing. By the way, they're growing really strongly. I think license fees were up something like 80% in the second quarter, but that's obviously a lot less than RevPAR growth at 234%. And so just the math ends up being a little bit less than RevPAR. And so when we -- when we're in this period of RevPAR growth being sort of at these really elevated rates because of the crazy comps, we're going to be a little bit lower than fee growth. On a long-term basis, it should be about 1 to 1. So that's sort of the easiest way I can sort of lay it out. We said it's hard to model though. Sorry about that.

是的，大衛，這既困難又容易。我的意思是，基本上，整體費用成長略低於整體 RevPAR 成長，這是你的問題。真正的——簡短的答案是，是的，許可費正在增長。順便說一句，他們的成長非常強勁。我認為第二季的許可費上漲了 80% 左右，但這顯然遠低於 RevPAR 234% 的成長。因此，從數學角度來看，最終的結果是比每間可用房收入（RevPAR）低一些。因此，當我們處於每間可用客房收入成長的時期，由於瘋狂的競爭，我們的成長速度確實很高，我們的成長速度將略低於費用成長。從長遠來看，它應該是大約 1 比 1。我們說過建模很難。對於那個很抱歉。

That's okay. No, whatever you got, we’ll take. If I may ask a similar question around sort of owned and leased. It's not -- certainly not the biggest part within your model. But if you don't mind my asking, any color on sort of how that recovers and grows out in the future would be helpful as well.

沒關係。不，無論你有什麼，我們都會接受。如果我可以就擁有和租賃的問題提出類似的問題。它不是——當然不是你的模型中最重要的部分。但如果你不介意我問，任何關於未來如何恢復和生長的顏色也會有幫助。

Yes, it's totally fair question. I mean, it's sort of telegraphed a little bit in our prepared remarks, again, pretty straightforward. I mean, that portfolio is concentrated in places like the U.K., Central Europe and Japan, in particular, that are just behind in the trajectory of recovery. So all the things we talked about, there's nothing structural there. It's just it's behind. It obviously was loss-making this quarter. It probably will be loss-making next quarter just because of the level of recovery and what's going to be needed in those parts of the world. And we think it's sort of breakeven-ish in Q4. We'll see what happens. Again, it's dependent on recovery and the world opening up a little bit. And then the last thing I'd say is, obviously, it's going to grow more quickly than the core business. So it's going to contribute positively to our growth going forward because it's going to be growing off of a much lower base.

是的，這是完全公平的問題。我的意思是，這在我們準備好的發言中已經傳達了一點，非常簡單。我的意思是，該投資組合主要集中在英國、中歐和日本等地區，尤其是那些在復甦軌跡上落後的國家。所以我們談論的所有事情都沒有什麼結構性的。只是它落後了而已。很明顯，這個季度它是虧損的。僅僅因為復甦水平以及世界這些地區的需求，它可能會在下個季度出現虧損。我們認為第四季已經達到了收支平衡。我們會看看會發生什麼。同樣，這取決於復甦和世界的稍微開放。我要說的最後一件事是，顯然，它的成長速度將比核心業務更快。因此，它將對我們未來的成長做出積極貢獻，因為它將在一個低得多的基礎上成長。

The next question is from Vince Ciepiel with Cleveland Research.

下一個問題來自克里夫蘭研究中心的文斯‧西皮爾 (Vince Ciepiel)。

I wanted to come back to the Honors contribution, which sounded really high. I think you said around 60%, which is maybe a few points under 2019. And that's all while business transient is still, I think, 30 points off. I think that usually over-indexes to brand direct. So just curious how you think this direct contribution evolves through the pandemic. Usually, there's a narrative that OTAs take share, but it seems like your direct business is really impressive. How do you think it evolves over the course of the next year?

我想回到榮譽貢獻，這聽起來確實很高。我想你說的是 60% 左右，這可能比 2019 年低了幾個百分點。我認為通常會過度索引品牌直接訊息。所以只是好奇你認為這種直接貢獻是如何在大流行中演變的。通常，有一種說法是 OTA 會佔據份額，但看起來你的直接業務確實令人印象深刻。您認為明年它會如何發展？

Yes. Well, over the next year, it's probably harder to judge. Over the next several years, obviously, our objective is to continue to enhance the value proposition for Honors, such that, as I've been saying for a long time, you're sort of crazy not to be a member of Honors. You get all the technology, you get a little bit of a discounted rate. You get the points. You can use the points to shop on Amazon, buy a concert ticket at Live Nation, go travel the world and get rooms or food and beverage or a spa treatment or whatever. It's very much an opportunity to sort of create value.

是的。嗯，在接下來的一年裡，可能更難判斷。顯然，在接下來的幾年裡，我們的目標是繼續增強榮譽會員的價值主張，這樣，正如我長期以來所說的那樣，如果你不成為榮譽會員，那你就有點瘋狂了。您可以獲得所有技術，並獲得一點折扣。你得到了積分。您可以使用積分在亞馬遜上購物，在 Live Nation 購買音樂會門票，環遊世界並獲得房間、食物和飲料或水療護理或其他任何東西。這在很大程度上是一個創造價值的機會。

And if you're not an Honors member and you're staying with us, you're sort of silly, I mean, just because you're effectively giving away value. And so that happens to be true. Obviously, we've been trying to, over the years, as I've talked about many times on these calls, sort of go high and low, make sure that for our most frequent travelers, it's a really relevant program, which I think we've done, but infrequent travelers as well. And that's probably been what's most game-changing for us, and I think it's helped us, sort of over the last 5 years, lead the industry in percentage of occupancy represented by loyalty, which is we've made it relevant to somebody that travels 2 or 3 days a year and not just 60 or 100 days a year because it's a currency effectively, and there's a value proposition that works for them.

如果你不是榮譽會員但你和我們住在一起，我的意思是，你有點愚蠢，因為你實際上在放棄價值。這恰好是真的。顯然，正如我在這些電話會議上多次談到的那樣，多年來我們一直在努力，確保對於我們最頻繁的旅行者來說，這是一個真正相關的計劃，我認為我們已經做到了，但也有不常去的旅行者。這可能是對我們來說最具改變性的事情，我認為它幫助我們在過去5 年裡，在以忠誠度為代表的入住率方面處於行業領先地位，也就是說，我們已經將其與旅行的人聯繫起來。

And so being specific about it, we want to continue that. I mean my own view is we were running in the 60s pre-COVID. My goals are much higher for that pre-COVID, and I'm not letting up. I mean COVID set us back, but I think COVID also provided opportunities. And as you pointed out, in May, we were effectively only a couple of points different than we were in '19. Why would that be when our core traveler is not back? Well, I think it's 2 things. One, in May and June, our core travelers started to come back. Number two, we worked really hard in how we sort of shifted our upper funnel and lower funnel strategies for marketing to attract customers into the system that were traveling during COVID that weren't our core customers.

因此，為了具體說明這一點，我們希望繼續下去。我的意思是，我自己的觀點是，我們是在 20 世紀 60 年代新冠疫情爆發之前跑步的。在新冠疫情發生之前，我的目標要高得多，而且我不會放棄。我的意思是，新冠疫情讓我們倒退了，但我認為新冠疫情也提供了機會。正如您所指出的，5 月份，我們實際上與 19 年相比僅相差幾分。為什麼我們的核心旅客還沒回來？嗯，我認為有兩件事。一、五月和六月，我們的核心旅客開始回來。第二，我們非常努力地改變我們的上漏斗和下漏斗行銷策略，以吸引在新冠疫情期間旅行的非我們核心客戶的客戶進入系統。

And so we were able to get a bunch of those folks to say, "Gosh, I would like to be an Honors member" and sign up, and then realize this is a really good value proposition. So the whole thing during COVID has been to basically say, let's go really hard after the customer that maybe wasn't our core, wasn't an Honors member, make sure they really understand the value proposition and then keep them in the system. And then when our core customer comes back, obviously, we believe we've got a great value proposition they understand. And when you put one and one together, you hope to get 3. And so the objective would be not to get back to where we were because that wasn't the objective pre-COVID. It's to get significantly beyond that.

因此，我們能夠讓一群人說，「天哪，我想成為榮譽會員」並註冊，然後意識到這是一個非常好的價值主張。因此，新冠疫情期間的整個事情基本上就是說，讓我們非常努力地追隨可能不是我們核心、不是榮譽會員的客戶，確保他們真正理解價值主張，然後將他們保留在系統中。然後，當我們的核心客戶回來時，顯然，我們相信我們擁有他們理解的偉大價值主張。當你把 1 和 1 放在一起時，你希望得到 3。 所以我們的目標不是回到我們原來的狀態，因為這不是新冠疫情之前的目標。它要遠遠超出這個範圍。

Why? Because we believe it's a better experience for our customer. Like the more -- the better the value proposition, the happier they are. The better experience with the technology, the happier they are. From an ownership and system point of view, we lower our distribution costs. It's the lowest distribution channel -- the lowest cost distribution channel we have. So for all the right reasons, we want to continue to build very direct relationships. And my belief is when you wake up in 2 or 3 years, while COVID has obviously been a difficult time for everybody in the industry, including us, I do think it afforded us an opportunity to accelerate some of those efforts.

為什麼？因為我們相信這對我們的客戶來說是更好的體驗。價值主張越多越好，他們就越快樂。科技體驗越好，他們就越快樂。從所有權和系統的角度來看，我們降低了分銷成本。這是最低的分銷管道—我們擁有的成本最低的分銷管道。因此，基於所有正當理由，我們希望繼續建立非常直接的關係。我的信念是，當你在兩三年後醒來時，雖然新冠疫情顯然對包括我們在內的業內每個人來說都是一段艱難的時期，但我確實認為它為我們提供了加速其中一些努力的機會。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Chris Nassetta for any additional or closing remarks.

女士們先生們，我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回克里斯·納塞塔（Chris Nassetta）以發表任何補充或結束語。

Thanks, everybody, for the time today. Obviously, we covered a lot of territory, and you can probably tell from my comments, we're obviously pleased with Q2, relative to where the business has been industry-wide and the company. And we're very bullish about, while we know there are risks out there, not oblivious to that, we think those are all reasonably manageable, and we're very bullish about not just the second half of the year, but very bullish about recovery as we go into '22 and beyond. We look forward -- appreciate your time, and we'll look forward to catching everybody up after we finish our third quarter. Take care. Have a great day.

謝謝大家今天抽出時間。顯然，我們涵蓋了許多領域，您可能可以從我的評論中看出，相對於全行業和公司的業務，我們顯然對第二季感到滿意。我們非常看好，雖然我們知道有風險，但我們並沒有忽視這一點，我們認為這些風險都是可以合理控制的，我們不僅非常看好下半年，而且非常看好當我們進入22 世紀及以後時，就會出現復甦。我們期待著—感謝您的寶貴時間，我們期待在第三季結束後跟大家報告。小心。祝你有美好的一天。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。