希爾頓酒店 (HLT) 2020 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to the Hilton Third Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call.

早安，歡迎參加希爾頓 2020 年第三季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

（操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Jill Slattery, Vice President, Investor Relations.

我現在想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Jill Slattery。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you, Chad.

謝謝你，查德。

Welcome to Hilton's Third Quarter 2020 Earnings Call.

歡迎參加希爾頓 2020 年第三季財報電話會議。

Before we begin, we would like to remind you that our discussions this morning will include forward-looking statements.

在開始之前，我們想提醒您，我們今天上午的討論將包括前瞻性陳述。

Actual results could differ materially from those indicated in the forward-looking statements, and forward-looking statements made today speak only to our expectations as of today.

實際結果可能與前瞻性聲明中所示的結果有重大差異，今天發表的前瞻性聲明僅代表我們截至目前為止的預期。

We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise these statements.

我們不承擔公開更新或修改這些聲明的義務。

For a discussion of some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ, please see the Risk Factors section of our most recently filed Form 10-K as supplemented by our 10-Q filed on August 6, 2020.

有關可能導致實際結果不同的一些因素的討論，請參閱我們最近提交的 10-K 表格的風險因素部分，並由 2020 年 8 月 6 日提交的 10-Q 表格進行補充。

In addition, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures on this call.

此外，我們將在本次電話會議上提及某些非公認會計準則財務指標。

You can find reconciliations of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures discussed in today's call in our earnings press release and on our website at ir.hilton.com.

您可以在我們的收益新聞稿和我們的網站 ir.hilton.com 上找到今天電話會議中討論的非 GAAP 與 GAAP 財務指標的調整表。

This morning, Chris Nassetta, our President and Chief Executive Officer, will provide an overview of the current operating environment.

今天早上，我們的總裁兼執行長 Chris Nassetta 將概述當前的營運環境。

Kevin Jacobs, our Chief Financial Officer and President, Global Development, will then review our third quarter results.

我們的財務長兼全球發展總裁 Kevin Jacobs 隨後將審查我們的第三季業績。

Following their remarks, we'll be happy to take your questions.

在他們的發言之後，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

With that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Chris.

至此，我很高興將電話轉給克里斯。

Thank you, Jill, and good morning, everybody.

謝謝吉爾，大家早安。

We appreciate you joining us today, particularly after what might have been a very late night for many that are on the call.

我們感謝您今天加入我們，特別是對於許多參加​​電話會議的人來說可能已經是一個深夜了。

Our third quarter results continue to reflect the impact of COVID-19.

我們第三季的業績繼續反映了 COVID-19 的影響。

However, I'm encouraged by the progress we've made over the last several months.

然而，我對我們過去幾個月的進展感到鼓舞。

Travel demand is gradually picking up around the world, and occupancy is meaningfully up from the lows we saw in April.

世界各地的旅遊需求逐漸回升，入住率較 4 月的低點顯著上升。

As a result of these improvements, I'm pleased to say that we were able to welcome back most of our furloughed corporate team members last month.

由於這些改進，我很高興地說，上個月我們能夠歡迎大部分休假的公司團隊成員回來。

And we've been able to successfully navigate the first phase of reopening our corporate offices.

我們已經成功度過了重新開放公司辦公室的第一階段。

We've reached important milestones with the vast majority of our properties around the world now open, development deals continuing to pick up and customers starting to feel more comfortable traveling again.

我們已經達到了重要的里程碑，我們在世界各地的絕大多數酒店現已開業，開發交易持續增加，客戶開始再次感到更舒適的旅行。

We remain focused on sustaining our recovery and driving better results for our owners.

我們仍然專注於維持復甦並為業主帶來更好的成果。

Turning to the quarter, RevPAR declined approximately 60% year-over-year with performance in urban full-service hotels remaining particularly challenged due to the lack of meetings and events, negligible international travel and local COVID protocols.

就本季而言，每間可用客房收入年減約 60%，由於會議和活動的缺乏、國際旅行和當地新冠肺炎協議的缺乏，城市全方位服務酒店的業績仍然面臨特別挑戰。

System-wide occupancy increased sequentially throughout the quarter with all major regions showing improvement.

本季全系統入住率連續上升，所有主要地區均出現改善。

However, momentum slowed in September with occupancy only slightly better than August levels.

然而，9 月的勢頭放緩，入住率僅略高於 8 月的水平。

In the U.S., occupancy increased roughly 5 points month-over-month in both July and August but remained largely steady in September.

在美國，7 月和 8 月入住率較上季成長約 5 個百分點，但 9 月基本上保持穩定。

Over Labor Day weekend, roughly half of our properties achieved occupancy levels of 80% or higher given strong leisure demand.

鑑於強勁的休閒需求，在勞動節週末期間，我們大約一半的酒店入住率達到 80% 或更高。

As expected, we saw leisure trends slow post summer, offset by a modest uptick in business transient into the fall.

正如預期的那樣，我們看到夏季過後休閒趨勢放緩，但被秋季商業短暫性小幅上升所抵消。

Asia Pacific led the recovery driven largely by domestic leisure travel in China, with occupancy levels reaching nearly 70% in August, the highest since December 2019.

亞太地區引領復甦，主要受到中國國內休閒旅遊的推動，8 月份入住率達到近 70%，為 2019 年 12 月以來的最高水準。

Performance in China was further boosted by local corporate transient and domestic group.

中國本土企業和國內集團的業績進一步提振。

In Europe, positive summer momentum stalled in September given a rise in coronavirus cases and tightening government restrictions, resulting in relatively stable occupancy levels of around 35% in August and September.

在歐洲，由於冠狀病毒病例增加和政府限制收緊，夏季積極的勢頭在 9 月陷入停滯，導致 8 月和 9 月的入住率相對穩定在 35% 左右。

Overall, these trends have generally continued into the fourth quarter with fairly steady occupancy as more hotels reopen and ramp, tempered by continued uncertainty surrounding the virus.

總體而言，隨著更多酒店重新開業和擴張，這些趨勢總體上持續到第四季度，入住率相當穩定，但受到病毒持續不確定性的影響。

With more than 97% of our global hotels open and operating, we estimate the vast majority of those hotels are running at breakeven occupancy levels or better.

隨著我們全球 97% 以上的酒店開業和運營，我們估計其中絕大多數酒店的入住率處於盈虧平衡或更高水平。

As we look to the balance of the year, we expect trends to remain relatively steady, resulting in fourth quarter RevPAR declines generally in line with the third quarter.

展望今年剩餘時間，我們預計趨勢將保持相對穩定，從而導致第四季度 RevPAR 下降與第三季基本一致。

On the development side, activity continues to pick up.

在發展方面，活動持續回升。

In the quarter, we signed over 17,000 rooms, boosted by better-than-expected conversions, which increased approximately 50% year-over-year and accounted for roughly 20% of our total signings.

本季度，由於轉換率好於預期，我們簽了 17,000 多間客房，年成長約 50%，約佔簽約總數的 20%。

Year-to-date, we command an industry-leading share of global conversion signings with more than 9,300 rooms signed, representing 1 in 5 deals.

今年迄今為止，我們在全球轉換簽約量中佔據領先業界的份額，已簽約客房超過 9,300 間，佔交易總數的五分之一。

Recent notable signings included the Waldorf Astoria Monarch Beach in California and the Conrad Abu Dhabi Etihad Towers.

最近引人注目的簽約項目包括加州的華爾道夫君主海灘酒店和阿布達比阿提哈德大廈康萊德酒店。

These conversions plus new development projects like the Conrad Rabat Arzana in Morocco will further enhance our global luxury and resort footprints.

這些改造加上摩洛哥康萊德拉巴特阿爾扎納酒店等新開發項目將進一步增強我們的全球豪華和度假村足跡。

In new development, we continue to see strong interest across our focus service brands, with signings up roughly 32% versus the second quarter.

在新的開發項目中，我們繼續看到人們對我們的重點服務品牌表現出濃厚的興趣，簽約量較第二季度增長了約 32%。

Additionally, we recently celebrated our 500th Hampton signing in China.

此外，我們最近還慶祝了漢普頓在中國的第 500 筆簽約。

At quarter end, our development pipeline totaled 408,000 rooms, representing an 8% increase versus prior year.

截至季末，我們的開發客房總數為 408,000 間，比去年同期成長 8%。

Additionally, the high quality of our pipeline with more than half of our rooms under construction gives us confidence in our ability to continue delivering solid net unit growth for several years.

此外，我們的管道品質很高，一半以上的房間正在建造，這讓我們對未來幾年繼續實現強勁的淨單位增長的能力充滿信心。

We opened more than 17,000 rooms in the third quarter and achieved net unit growth of 4.7%.

第三季我們新開客房超過 17,000 間，客房數量淨增加 4.7%。

Openings in the Americas were up more than 31% year-over-year, driven primarily by conversions.

美洲的空缺職位同比增長超過 31%，這主要是由轉換推動的。

Notable openings in the quarter included the Conrad Punta de Mita in Mexico and the Hilton Beijing Tongzhou in China.

本季新開幕的著名酒店包括墨西哥的康萊德蓬塔米塔酒店和中國的北京通州希爾頓酒店。

Additionally, we were thrilled to open the Motto by Hilton in Washington, D.C. City Center, marking our first hotel under the Motto brand.

此外，我們很高興在華盛頓特區市中心開設 Motto by Hilton，這是我們第一家 Motto 品牌飯店。

For the full year 2020, we now expect net unit growth to be 4.5% to 5% with continued positive momentum in conversions.

對於 2020 年全年，我們目前預計淨單位成長率為 4.5% 至 5%，且轉換將持續保持積極勢頭。

Additionally, we look forward to celebrating our 1 millionth room milestone in coming weeks.

此外，我們期待在未來幾週內慶祝我們的第 100 萬間客房里程碑。

Since our team came in and implemented the company's transformation 13 years ago, we've doubled our size in rooms and number of brands, driven entirely by organic growth.

自從 13 年前我們的團隊加入並實施公司轉型以來，我們的客房規模和品牌數量已經增加了一倍，這完全是由有機成長所推動的。

Our commitment to delivering on our customers' evolving needs and preferences is even more important now than ever before and calls for even greater innovation and agility in the current environment.

我們對滿足客戶不斷變化的需求和偏好的承諾現在比以往任何時候都更加重要，並要求在當前環境中實現更大的創新和敏捷性。

To that end, we were excited to launch WorkSpaces by Hilton, which provides guests a clean, flexible and distraction-free environment for productive remote working.

為此，我們很高興推出希爾頓 WorkSpaces，它為客人提供一個乾淨、靈活且無幹擾的環境，以實現高效的遠端工作。

Each of our day use rooms includes a spacious desk, a comfortable ergonomic chair, free WiFi plus the use of all available business and leisure amenities.

我們的每間日用客房均配有寬敞的辦公桌、舒適的人體工學椅、免費無線網路以及所有可用的商務和休閒設施。

We also announced further enhancements to previous Hilton Honors program modifications that will increase flexibility for our more than 110 million members, including reducing 2021 status qualifications and extending status and points expiration.

我們也宣布對先前希爾頓榮譽客會計畫的修改進行進一步增強，這將為我們超過 1.1 億會員提高靈活性，包括減少 2021 年的會籍資格以及延長會籍和積分有效期。

Decisive actions, relentless determination and unwavering commitment to our core values have helped us successfully navigate what has been a challenging and uncertain environment.

果斷的行動、不懈的決心和對我們核心價值的堅定承諾幫助我們成功應對充滿挑戰和不確定的環境。

They have also helped position us well for recovery.

他們也幫助我們為康復做好了準備。

We're confident that our business model, coupled with our disciplined strategy, will enable us to further differentiate ourselves in the industry and emerge stronger and more efficient than ever before.

我們相信，我們的商業模式加上嚴格的策略將使我們能夠在行業中進一步脫穎而出，並比以往任何時候都更強大、更有效率。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Kevin for more details on the third quarter.

這樣，我會將電話轉給凱文，以了解有關第三季度的更多詳細資訊。

Thanks, Chris, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝克里斯，大家早安。

In the quarter, as Chris mentioned, system-wide RevPAR declined 60% versus the prior year on a comparable and currency-neutral basis, with decreases across all chain scales and regions.

正如 Chris 所提到的，本季全系統 RevPAR 在可比較和貨幣中性的基礎上比前一年下降了 60%，所有連鎖規模和地區均出現下降。

Occupancy drove the majority of the declines with rate pressure due largely to customer mix, further hampering performance.

入住率下降是主要原因，而利率壓力主要是由於客戶組合造成的，進一步影響了業績。

However, we saw sequential improvement throughout the quarter driven by hotel reopenings, loosening travel restrictions in most areas and a pickup in summer leisure demand, particularly in China and the U.S.

然而，在酒店重新開業、大多數地區放鬆旅行限制以及夏季休閒需求回升（尤其是在中國和美國）的推動下，整個季度的情況出現了環比改善。

Adjusted EBITDA was $224 million in the third quarter, declining 63% year-over-year.

第三季調整後 EBITDA 為 2.24 億美元，年減 63%。

Results reflect the continued reduction in global travel demand due to the pandemic and related temporary suspensions at some of our hotels during the quarter.

業績反映出，由於疫情大流行以及我們一些飯店在本季的相關臨時停業，全球旅遊需求持續減少。

Management and franchise fees decreased 53%, driven by RevPAR declines.

由於 RevPAR 下降，管理費和特許經營費下降了 53%。

Overall, revenue declines were mitigated by greater cost control at both the corporate and property levels with corporate G&A expense down approximately 38% year-over-year.

整體而言，公司和財產層面加強成本控制，緩解了收入下降的影響，公司一般及行政費用較去年同期下降約 38%。

Our ownership portfolio posted a loss for the quarter due to temporary closures, fixed operating costs and fixed rent payments at some of our leased properties.

由於我們的部分租賃物業的暫時關閉、固定營運成本和固定租金支付，我們的所有權投資組合本季出現虧損。

Cost control measures mitigated losses across the portfolio.

成本控制措施減輕了整個投資組合的損失。

Diluted earnings per share adjusted for special items was $0.06.

特殊項目調整後的稀釋每股收益為 0.06 美元。

Turning to liquidity.

轉向流動性。

We ended the quarter with total cash and equivalents of nearly $3.5 billion.

本季末，我們的現金及等價物總額接近 35 億美元。

Our cash burn rate improved in the third quarter given gradual recovery in the macro environment, further helped by continued cost discipline and better-than-expected collections.

鑑於宏觀環境逐步復甦，我們的現金消耗率在第三季有所改善，持續的成本控制和好於預期的收款進一步幫助了我們。

As we look ahead, we remain confident in our liquidity position and ability to navigate the current environment and recovery.

展望未來，我們對我們的流動性狀況以及應對當前環境和復甦的能力仍然充滿信心。

Further details on our third quarter can be found in the earnings release we issued earlier this morning.

有關我們第三季度的更多詳細信息，請參閱我們今天早上發布的收益報告。

This completes our prepared remarks.

我們準備好的演講到此結束。

We would now like to open the line for any questions you may have.

我們現在願意為您解答任何問題。

(Operator Instructions) Chad, can we have our first question, please?

（操作員指示）Chad，我們可以問第一個問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions) And the first question will come from Carlo Santarelli with Deutsche Bank.

（操作員說明）第一個問題將由德意志銀行的 Carlo Santarelli 提出。

Guys, just in terms of the pipeline, obviously, you guys talked about kind of 3.5% to 4% was the expectation for this year.

夥計們，就管道而言，顯然，你們談到今年的預期是 3.5% 到 4%。

You obviously spoke to the high end of that range.

您顯然談到了該範圍的高端。

Now obviously, looking for more, Chris, you spoke a lot in your prepared remarks about kind of the impact of conversions and that the percentage of conversions, I believe, you said was 20% of the 17,000 rooms signed in the quarter.

顯然，克里斯，您在準備好的評論中談到了很多關於轉換的影響，我相信您所說的轉換百分比是本季度簽約的 17,000 間客房的 20%。

As we move out further into 2021, 2022, et cetera, could you talk a little bit about the role that you're foreseeing for forward conversion means to net unit growth?

隨著我們進一步進入 2021 年、2022 年等，您能否談談您對遠期轉換對淨單位成長的預期作用？

And maybe potentially also talk about kind of what changed this year.

也許還可能談論今年發生的變化。

Is it just more construction timing and things kind of getting back, started in terms of hotels that were close to the finish line?

是否只是更多的施工時間和事情的回歸，從接近終點線的酒店開始？

Maybe a little bit in advance of when you thought they would?

也許比你想像的提前了一點？

Sure.

當然。

There's a bunch there, but let me unpack it.

那裡有一堆，但讓我把它拆開。

I think I can pretty succinctly do that.

我想我可以非常簡潔地做到這一點。

Yes, starting with this year, our numbers have been moving up over the last 3 or 4 months on net unit growth now to being 4.5% to 5%, and that is exactly what you suggested in the question.

是的，從今年開始，我們的數字在過去 3 或 4 個月裡一直在上升，淨單位增長率現在達到 4.5% 到 5%，這正是您在問題中所建議的。

That's because things have gotten back under construction more rapidly than we were initially assuming, and that means that we're just delivering more this year than we thought we would, which is a good thing.

這是因為事情恢復建設的速度比我們最初假設的要快，這意味著我們今年的交付量比我們想像的要多，這是一件好事。

And in conversions, while the bulk of that benefit is going to be seen, I think, in '21 and '22, just because of the lag effect, we are seeing more conversions in the year for the year than we had been anticipating, which was reflected in signings being up in the third quarter by 50%.

在轉換方面，雖然我認為在 21 和 22 年會看到大部分好處，但僅僅因為滯後效應，我們今年看到的轉換量比我們預期的要多，這反映在第三季度的簽約人數增加了50%。

So the flow-through of that is how we're getting to the 4.5% to 5%.

因此，我們是如何達到 4.5% 到 5% 的。

I think as you think about conversions going forward, last year, it was -- and I'll do this directionally because it's very early, and obviously, we're not giving specific guidance.

我認為當你考慮未來的轉換時，去年，我會定向地這樣做，因為現在還很早，而且顯然我們沒有提供具體的指導。

But directionally, last year, we were in the high teens in terms of the percentage of our NUG that was in conversions.

但從方向來看，去年我們的 NUG 轉換百分比處於高位。

This year, we obviously will see an uptick, 400 or 500 basis points on that.

今年，我們顯然會看到上漲 400 或 500 個基點。

Again, recognizing that there's a lag, even though these happen a lot faster than new builds, there is time to renovate properties in many cases, get them into our systems and the like.

再次認識到存在滯後，儘管這些發生的速度比新建築快得多，但在許多情況下仍有時間翻新房產，將它們納入我們的系統等。

So we'll be -- if we're in the teens, we'll be in the low to mid-20s.

所以我們會－－如果我們是十幾歲，我們就會是二十多歲。

And I think that number will keep creeping up.

我認為這個數字將會繼續上升。

I've said many times over the years, in the last -- in the Great Recession, I think we peaked out close to 40%.

多年來我已經說過很多次了，在過去的大衰退中，我認為我們的高峰接近 40%。

I don't think we will get that high, even though in this world, we have more brands to play with in the sense that then we really had one in DoubleTree.

我不認為我們會達到那麼高，儘管在這個世界上，我們有更多的品牌可以玩，從某種意義上說，我們確實有一個在逸林。

Now we have DoubleTree and 3 soft brands.

現在我們擁有逸林和3個軟品牌。

We're bigger.

我們更大了。

We have a broader development story than we did from a global point of view in those days.

與當時的全球觀點相比，我們擁有更廣泛的發展故事。

And so I do think it will grow from low to mid-20s beyond that in '21 and '22.

所以我確實認為它會從 20 年代低增長到 20 年代中期，超過 21 和 22 年。

And you sort of asked it, and I know it's on everybody's mind.

你問過這個問題，我知道每個人都在想這個問題。

And so while I'm on development and NUG, I'll finish the story is we -- it's very early, and I wouldn't take this as like hard guidance, but I would take it like everything else in COVID world as a good direction, and we've done a lot of work around it.

因此，當我進行開發和 NUG 時，我將完成這個故事——現在還很早，我不會將其視為硬性指導，但我會像新冠世界中的其他一切一樣將其視為方向很好，我們已經圍繞它做了很多工作。

As we think about NUG and as we've talked about, certainly, in the last call, over the next few years, we think it's probably best we can tell in the 4% to 5% range.

當我們考慮 NUG 時，正如我們在上次電話會議中所討論的那樣，在接下來的幾年裡，我們認為最好的預測可能是在 4% 到 5% 的範圍內。

We're going to be a little bit obviously better than that this year.

今年我們會比今年明顯好。

Next year, we have a bunch of stuff that will deliver that's been in motion, conversions.

明年，我們有很多東西可以實現一直在進行的轉換。

But we feel comfortable in that range because even though we will have a drop off, obviously and naturally as a result of fewer things getting put under construction because of the financing markets right now, we still have a lot that already is in production and coming through.

但我們對這個範圍感到滿意，因為儘管由於目前融資市場的原因，建設中的項目明顯減少，我們的產量會明顯下降，但我們仍然有很多已經在生產和即將推出的項目。

And we will supplement that with conversions, which, by definition, effectively have already been financed.

我們將透過轉換來補充這一點，根據定義，轉換實際上已經得到了融資。

So I think that's the way I would think about this year.

所以我想這就是我今年的想法。

That's the way I think about the next few years that we're sort of somewhere in that 4 to 5 zone, trying to be more precise than that at this point, I think, would be difficult.

這就是我對未來幾年的看法，我們將處於 4 到 5 區的某個位置，我認為，在這一點上試圖比這個更精確是很困難的。

But we'll obviously keep you updated as time goes on.

但隨著時間的推移，我們顯然會及時向您通報最新情況。

And Chris, if I could, just a quick follow-up on your response there.

克里斯，如果可以的話，請快速跟進您的回覆。

That 4% to 5% range, is there an air pocket anywhere in there as you think about kind of maybe the financing [glob] that could potentially kind of impact the 2022 or 2023, whatever may be in the lead time?

在 4% 到 5% 的範圍內，當您考慮可能會影響 2022 年或 2023 年的融資（全球）時，是否存在空氣袋，無論交貨時間如何？

Or do you think that's pretty consistent and steady?

還是你認為這相當一致且穩定？

Yes.

是的。

And Carlo, I -- it depends on how much success we have in filling what will be a decline in newbuilds with conversions.

卡洛，我——這取決於我們在透過改造來填補新造船數量下降方面能取得多大成功。

And it's just -- looking that far out is hard to do.

只是——看得那麼遠是很難做到的。

That's why I would just direct you to, at the moment, the 4% to 5%.

這就是為什麼我現在只想引導您選擇 4% 到 5%。

And I think best that we can model it, and that's all it is for us.

我認為最好的是我們可以對其進行建模，這就是我們的全部。

But it's based on a lot of experience and the trajectory we see and what's already in the pipeline and what's already under construction and what we see in activity and conversions.

但這是基於大量的經驗和我們看到的軌跡，以及已經在醞釀和正在建立的內容，以及我們在活動和轉換中看到的內容。

We think the next few years will be within those boundaries.

我們認為未來幾年將在這些範圍內。

It doesn't mean it will be in the middle every year.

這並不意味著每年都會在中間。

It could bounce up and down a little bit based on our projections.

根據我們的預測，它可能會上下波動。

But that's about as precise as we could be in the moment.

但這是我們目前所能達到的最精確的結果。

The next question will be from Joe Greff with JPMorgan.

下一個問題將由摩根大通的喬·格雷夫提出。

Chris, Kevin, you did a commendable job and have been doing a commendable job on controlling G&A costs.

克里斯、凱文，你們的工作值得稱讚，在控制一般行政費用方面也一直做得很好。

And I know you have some of the furlough impacts in the G&A line and not replicating themselves going forward.

我知道你在一般行政費用方面受到了一些休假影響，並且不會在未來複製。

And not so much for the fourth quarter, but just maybe over the next couple of years, maybe you can just talk about big picture how do you think, in a RevPAR and fee recovery scenario, how you bring back incremental G&A expenses.

第四季的情況就不那麼嚴重了，但也許在接下來的幾年裡，也許你可以談談大局，在 RevPAR 和費用回收的情況下，你如何看待增量 G&A 費用。

What is that relationship?

那是什麼關係？

So I don't know if you want to think of it this way.

所以我不知道你願不願意這麼想。

In other words, if we think about 2022 with -- you're at 80%, 85%, 90%, whatever that number is, '22 RevPAR as a percentage of 2019, what is that relationship-wise for G&A, looking back at 2019 as a baseline?

換句話說，如果我們考慮 2022 年，無論這個數字是 80%、85%、90%，「22 RevPAR 佔 2019 年的百分比，那麼回顧一下，對於 G&A 來說，這種關係是什麼？」以2019年為基準？

Yes.

是的。

I think, look, obviously, it's a very fair question, and I think you've identified some of the offsetting things, right?

我認為，顯然，這是一個非常公平的問題，而且我認為您已經確定了一些抵消的事情，對嗎？

I mean I think if you think about -- I know you didn't ask about the fourth quarter.

我的意思是，我想如果你想一想——我知道你沒有問過第四季的情況。

But if you think about the fourth quarter, it's a similar dynamic for '21 and '22, right, where you sort of lose the benefit of the furloughs that we had over the course of the second and third quarter.

但如果你想想第四季度，你會發現 21 和 22 季度的情況類似，對吧，你會失去我們在第二季度和第三季度休假的好處。

But you gain the run rate benefit of the reductions in force that we've had and some of the other cost control measures that we've put in place.

但是，您可以從我們減少的人力以及我們採取的其他一些成本控制措施中獲得運行率方面的好處。

So I'd say, look, I mean, sort of similar answer to NUG, it's a little bit early to be giving you a refined look at 2021 and certainly 2022.

所以我想說，看，我的意思是，有點類似於 NUG 的答案，現在讓您對 2021 年，當然還有 2022 年進行精確的審視還為時過早。

But the way we're thinking about it is that most of these savings should be semi-permanent, meaning there will be a point at which the business grows to the point a few years from now where you have to start adding back.

但我們的想法是，大部分節省應該是半永久性的，這意味著幾年後業務會成長到必須開始增加的程度。

But for the foreseeable future, most of the savings should be semi-permanent.

但在可預見的未來，大部分節省應該是半永久性的。

And we ought to grow plus or minus inflation over the next couple of years, and that's probably as much guidance as we're comfortable giving you at this point.

在接下來的幾年裡，我們的成長應該是正負通貨膨脹的，這可能是我們目前願意為您提供的盡可能多的指導。

The next question is from Shaun Kelley from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

下一個問題來自美銀美林的肖恩凱利。

So Kevin, in your prepared remarks, you talked a little bit about just sort of where we are with the cash burn piece.

凱文，在您準備好的演講中，您談到了我們在燒錢方面的情況。

And I was just wondering, can you just kind of lay out for us directly or clearly, is the corporate entity sort of on a run rate or a monthly basis?

我只是想知道，您能否直接或清楚地為我們介紹一下，公司實體是按運行率還是按月計算？

Or are you guys at cash burn neutral or even positive at this point?

還是你們目前對現金消耗的態度是中性甚至是正面的？

Or what does it take to get there?

或需要什麼才能到達那裡？

And then maybe as the follow-up, just straight up, it would be how are kind of the broader working capital and franchisee collections going?

然後，也許作為後續行動，直接說，更廣泛的營運資金和特許經營收藏的進展如何？

How is that relationship with franchisees playing out?

與特許經營商的關係進展如何？

And how would you characterize some of the risk around any collection at this point?

此時您如何描述任何集合的一些風險？

Yes.

是的。

Sure.

當然。

Thanks, Shaun.

謝謝，肖恩。

Look, I think the -- I'll take the second part first.

聽著，我想──我會先看第二部分。

I think the answers are obviously pretty very related.

我認為答案顯然非常相關。

The relationship we have with our owners, I'd describe as really positive, I mean, just to put that framework out there.

我認為我們與業主的關係非常積極，我的意思是，只是為了把這個框架放在那裡。

I think everybody is doing the best they can.

我認為每個人都在盡力而為。

And I think people, to the extent that they can pay us, are paying us.

我認為人們只要能付錢給我們，就會付錢給我們。

And obviously, you saw over the third quarter with a burn of plus or minus $100 million.

顯然，您會看到第三季的燒錢正負 1 億美元。

That was sort of, I think, better than most people's expectations, including our own.

我認為，這比大多數人的預期要好，包括我們自己的預期。

So, so far, we're having a very good experience on collections.

所以，到目前為止，我們在收藏方面擁有非常好的體驗。

And again, everybody is doing the best they can.

再說一遍，每個人都在盡力而為。

In terms of going forward, are we at breakeven?

就未來而言，我們是否處於損益平衡狀態？

I'd say we're getting there.

我想說我們快到了。

I think all things being equal on collections, and if we have a similar experience over the course of the fourth quarter, I'd say we'll be equal to or maybe slightly better than the third quarter will be the fourth quarter experience, again, if things kind of go the way we think they're going to go or they go the way they've been going.

我認為在收藏方面所有事情都是平等的，如果我們在第四季度有類似的經歷，我想說我們將再次與第三季度持平或略好於第四季度的經歷，如果事情按照我們認為的方式發展，或按照他們一直在發展的方式發展。

We do have a couple of timing items like we have a pretty large interest expense payment that just hit in October and things like that.

我們確實有一些時間安排項目，例如我們在 10 月剛剛支付了相當大的利息費用等等。

But again, I think all things being equal, it will be equal to or better than the third quarter and the fourth quarter.

但同樣，我認為在所有條件相同的情況下，它將等於或優於第三季和第四季。

And what does it take to get to cash flow positive?

怎樣才能實現正現金流？

We're almost there, probably just a little bit more -- a little bit better demand and a little bit better operating performance then you're there.

我們已經快到了，可能只是多了一點──需求好一點，營運績效好一點。

The next question is from Stephen Grambling with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的史蒂芬‧格蘭布林（Stephen Grambling）。

Maybe combining both Carlo and -- Carlo's question earlier.

也許將卡洛和卡洛之前的問題結合起來。

You've had, obviously, really solid net unit growth and solid cost control.

顯然，您已經實現了非常穩定的淨單位成長和可靠的成本控制。

If we put these 2 together, what level of RevPAR decline versus 201 would you think you would be back to 2019 EBITDA levels but perhaps taking it one step further to 2019 levels of free cash flow?

如果我們將這兩者放在一起，您認為與 201 相比，RevPAR 會下降到什麼水平，您會回到 2019 年 EBITDA 水平，但也許會更進一步達到 2019 年自由現金流水平？

And what are some of the other puts and takes to think about that might influence that?

還有哪些其他的考慮因素可能會影響這一點？

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

Obviously, it's a little bit difficult to be precise with you in the sense of building the model for you as much as I'd like to.

顯然，要按照我的意願為您建立模型，要精確地與您溝通有點困難。

And we do have a model, and if you put those 2 things together, I think that's sort of implied in your question, is you will get to free cash flow and EBITDA levels of '19 before you necessarily get back to demand levels of '19 because you have created a much more efficient cost structure.

我們確實有一個模型，如果你把這兩件事放在一起，我認為你的問題隱含著這樣的意思，那就是你將達到“19”的自由現金流和EBITDA 水平，然後才能回到“ 19”的需求水準19 因為您創建了一個更有效率的成本結構。

I think that is a reasonable assumption, and that is certainly what our models would show that when we get to the other side, because of what Kevin said and what I said, we will keep growing throughout.

我認為這是一個合理的假設，而且我們的模型肯定會表明，當我們到達另一邊時，由於凱文所說的和我所說的，我們將始終保持增長。

We will have more units producing on more normalized levels of demand against a lower cost base.

我們將有更多的單位以更標準化的需求水準和更低的成本基礎進行生產。

The math is pretty easy.

數學很簡單。

That means we're -- when we get to the other side of this and we're on a more normal time, we're a meaningfully higher-margin business because we have cut a lot of costs and we're going to continue to keep those costs out of the business with some basic inflationary pressures on growth.

這意味著當我們到達這一點的另一邊並且處於更正常的時期時，我們是一家利潤率更高的企業，因為我們已經削減了大量成本，並且我們將繼續下去將這些成本排除在業務之外，並給成長帶來一些基本的通膨壓力。

And so I can't give you a number.

所以我不能給你一個數字。

We're not going to give guidance of any sort, particularly multiple years out.

我們不會提供任何形式的指導，尤其是多年後的指導。

But I think if you do basic math and assume what we've already said publicly, you can pretty easily get there.

但我認為，如果你做基礎數學並假設我們已經公開說過的話，你就可以很容易地實現這一目標。

You can see what we're saying in unit growth.

您可以看到我們在單位增長中所說的內容。

You can make your assumptions on REVPAR.

您可以對 REVPAR 做出假設。

We've given pretty solid guidance on.

我們已經給出了相當紮實的指導。

We think our G&A structure is going to be down 25% to 30% this year.

我們認為今年我們的 G&A 結構將下降 25% 至 30%。

My guess is it will be towards the higher end of that when it's all said and done, and then it's just arithmetic after that.

我的猜測是，當一切都說了、做了之後，它會朝著更高的方向發展，然後就只是算術了。

So we're not going to finish the arithmetic part of it.

所以我們不會完成它的算術部分。

We'll let you do it.

我們會讓你這麼做。

But I think your baseline, I think what is implied in the question is correct.

但我認為你的基線，我認為問題中隱含的內容是正確的。

We will get to EBITDA and free cash flow of '19 before we would get to demand levels of '19 for those reasons.

由於這些原因，我們將先達到 19 年的 EBITDA 和自由現金流，然後才能達到 19 年的需求水準。

Right.

正確的。

And I guess one other just quick follow-up is just as we think about working capital or other components of cash flow, whether it's CapEx or otherwise, is there anything there that we should be cognizant of that could be different relative to where you were trending kind of pre COVID?

我想另一個快速跟進的問題是，正如我們考慮營運資金或現金流的其他組成部分，無論是資本支出還是其他方面，是否有任何我們應該意識到的事情可能與您所處的情況有所不同新冠疫情前的流行趨勢？

I don't think so.

我不這麼認為。

No, I don't think so.

不，我不這麼認為。

I mean, obviously, on CapEx, we've reduced CapEx numbers in this environment like every -- pretty much everybody on earth, certainly in our industry and most industries.

我的意思是，顯然，在資本支出方面，我們已經像地球上幾乎每個人一樣，減少了這種環境下的資本支出數量，當然是我們行業和大多數行業。

I think as we get back to that, I think there's -- that will normalize and be more like it was, but there'll be efficiencies, I think, we'll garner on that.

我認為，當我們回到這一點時，我認為這將會正常化，並且會變得更像以前，但我認為，我們會在這方面提高效率。

And I think, again, when you get to a normalized environment, I think the working capital things sort of go back to the way they were.

我再次認為，當你進入正常化的環境時，我認為營運資金的情況會回到原來的狀態。

The next question is from Thomas Allen of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的湯瑪斯艾倫。

So thank you for the color earlier that you kind of expect fourth quarter RevPAR trends to be similar to third quarter.

感謝您之前提供的信息，您預計第四季度的 RevPAR 趨勢將與第三季度相似。

But can you just give us a little bit more color on what you're seeing right now by region?

但您能否向我們介紹一下您目前所看到的各地區情況？

Obviously, we can look at third quarter results, but you're seeing increased closures in Europe.

顯然，我們可以看看第三季的業績，但你會看到歐洲的關閉數量增加。

I'd be curious to hear how -- if APAC continue to improve or not.

我很想知道亞太地區是否有持續改善。

And then just related, corporate rate negotiations should be going on right now.

與之相關的是，企業利率談判現在應該正在進行。

Kind of what are you hearing through those conversations?

您透過這些對話聽到了什麼？

Okay.

好的。

Great, Thomas.

太棒了，托馬斯。

Yes, there's a lot there, too, but let me unpack it and see if I can.

是的，那裡也有很多東西，但讓我打開它，看看是否可以。

I'm not one for being succinct, as you know, but let me try and be.

如你所知，我不是一個喜歡簡潔的人，但讓我嘗試一下。

So regionally, it's pretty much what you guys have been writing about and what you've been seeing.

因此，就地區而言，這幾乎就是你們一直在寫的內容和你們所看到的內容。

The here and now is that notwithstanding what's going on in the U.S., forget the election but resurgence in coronavirus cases.

此時此地，儘管美國正在發生什麼，但忘記選舉吧，但冠狀病毒病例的死灰復燃。

We've seen here sort of steady, steady as she goes, so to speak.

可以這麼說，我們在這裡看到她走得很穩定。

We haven't seen any material backward activity in terms of mobility and demand.

在流動性和需求方面，我們沒有看到任何實質的落後活動。

Now depending on what happens, you could, but we have -- we've seen it remain reasonably steady.

現在取決於發生的情況，你可以，但我們已經看到它保持相當穩定。

I'd say Europe and Middle East is going backwards modestly for the reasons that you would expect.

我想說，歐洲和中東正在適度倒退，原因如你所料。

And so as we think about the fourth quarter, we've more recently been sort of knocking our numbers and expectations down because of lockdowns.

因此，當我們考慮第四季時，由於封鎖，我們最近有點降低了我們的數字和預期。

That's sort of obvious.

這很明顯。

If you look at Latin America, I would say, so goes the U.S., sort of Latin America is generally in keeping in terms of trajectory.

如果你看看拉丁美洲，我會說，美國也是如此，拉丁美洲的發展軌跡總體上是一致的。

And then Asia Pacific, really led by China.

然後是亞太地區，真正由中國領導。

I think outside of China, Asia Pacific feels a lot like what's going on in the U.S. I hate to make it all one big bucket.

我認為在中國之外，亞太地區的情況很像美國正在發生的事情。

But if you put it all together, it sort of does.

但如果你把它們放在一起，那就是這樣了。

And then China, as has been well documented, continues to sort of motor along.

然後，正如有充分記錄的那樣，中國繼續向前推進。

And we continue to see pickup in travel in all segments.

我們繼續看到所有領域的旅行都在成長。

And so when you put it all together, Europe is definitely going a bit backwards.

因此，當你把所有這些放在一起時，歐洲肯定有點倒退了。

Asia continues to move a little bit forward.

亞洲繼續向前邁進一點。

U.S. is sort of steady, and that's kind of why we get to a fourth quarter that's about where we are.

美國的情況比較穩定，這就是為什麼我們會在第四季達到這樣的水準。

If we look at October numbers, which we don't have final numbers, but that sort of supports it.

如果我們看一下 10 月的數據，我們沒有最終數據，但這支持了這一點。

There is risk in it.

其中存在風險。

I'm not going to deny.

我不會否認。

I mean depending on what goes on here in the U.S. and other parts of the world with the virus, there's risk.

我的意思是，根據美國和世界其他地區病毒的情況，存在風險。

It could go back, whereas our best sense of it is at the moment is people are sort of figuring out how to manage their own risk profile.

它可能會回歸，而我們目前最好的感覺是人們正在弄清楚如何管理自己的風險狀況。

And as a result, they're getting -- there's a lot of data and information out there as long as their countries aren't locking them down.

結果，他們得到——只要他們的國家不封鎖他們，就有大量的數據和資訊。

And I think it's unlikely the U.S. will lock down the whole country.

我認為美國不太可能封鎖整個國家。

There is some level of mobility that I think will likely allow us to maintain this level of sort of operations that we've been seeing for a period of time.

我認為一定程度的流動性可能會讓我們維持一段時間以來一直看到的這種運作水準。

And then the next step is, like when do you see the next step change?

然後下一步是，例如什麼時候看到下一步發生變化？

And my own view is I think you see that in the spring.

我個人的觀點是，我認為你會在春天看到這一點。

I think we sort of hold our own between here and there.

我認為我們在這和那裡之間保持著自己的立場。

I think that we'll get an election behind us, which will take some of the air out of the balloon regardless of outcome.

我認為我們將會舉行選舉，無論結果如何，這都會讓氣球失去一些空氣。

I believe that you will start to see a lot coming out of the vaccine world particularly, maybe more out of the therapy world.

我相信你會開始看到很多來自疫苗領域的成果，尤其是來自治療領域的成果。

But vaccines on multiple -- in multiple cases, that will have some level of effectiveness that will be able to be mass-produced sometime late this year, early next year, you get through the winter season, the flu season.

但多種疫苗——在多種情況下，將具有一定程度的有效性，將能夠在今年年底、明年初的某個時候大規模生產，度過冬季、流感季節。

And I think there's a real opportunity for a step change in attitude and as a result, a step change in performance.

我認為這是一個真正的機會來改變態度，從而改變績效。

As we look at our segments, they're sort of reflective of that.

當我們審視我們的細分市場時，它們在某種程度上反映了這一點。

Not necessarily they all agree with me, but it's sort of -- that's what you see going on.

不一定他們都同意我的觀點，但這就是你所看到的情況。

Leisure is sort of coming off the summer season.

夏季的休閒活動逐漸結束。

On the last call, we said we thought leisure would be stronger into the fall than normally just because people aren't open -- offices aren't open.

在最後一次電話會議上，我們表示，我們認為秋季的閒暇時間會比平常更充裕，因為人們不上班——辦公室也不開門。

In a lot of cases, kids aren't back at school, so people have more mobility for leisure purposes.

在很多情況下，孩子們沒有回到學校，因此人們有更多的休閒活動。

That's exactly what's happened.

這正是發生的事情。

We've seen continued strength, not as much at the summer, but continued strength.

我們看到了持續的強勢，雖然不像夏天那麼強勁，但仍然持續強勁。

We've definitely seen a pickup in the third quarter and into the fourth quarter of business travel.

我們確實看到商務旅行在第三季和第四季有所回升。

It's not the traditional customer en masse that we would typically be housing, but business travel is picking up.

我們通常不會接待傳統的大批客戶，但商務旅行正在增加。

And group, there is group.

還有團體，有團體。

I mean in the third quarter, we did about 10% group, which is probably about half of what we've normally done.

我的意思是，在第三季度，我們做了大約 10% 的小組，這可能是我們通常所做的一半左右。

The groups are different.

組別不同。

They're more related to the crisis, sports teams, things like that, but there is some group.

他們更多地與危機、運動隊等相關，但有一些群體。

But the big return of the group, I think, doesn't really occur until -- hopefully, you get to that moment that I talked about next spring, where we're sort of shifting into a different gear in terms of the health crisis and vaccines.

但我認為，這個團體的巨大回報不會真正發生，直到——希望你能到達我在明年春天談到的那一刻，我們在健康危機方面將進入不同的階段。

As it relates to the last question, I think, I unpacked it all, corp rate negotiations.

由於它與最後一個問題有關，我想，我把它全部解開了，公司利率談判。

We've actually done really well.

我們實際上做得非常好。

I mean I think the biggest issue on corporate rate negotiations is really how many people are going to show up.

我的意思是，我認為企業利率談判的最大問題實際上是有多少人會參加。

Less to me about the rate, although obviously, rates are important, but like, how many people are going to show up under those programs next year?

對我來說，關於費率的問題較少，儘管顯然，費率很重要，但明年有多少人會參加這些計劃？

Premature to say.

言之尚早。

I think it will follow the trends broadly, macro trends that I just described that I think give at least -- or what I believe.

我認為它將遵循我剛才描述的廣泛趨勢，我認為至少會給出的宏觀趨勢——或者我所相信的。

In terms of rate negotiations, we've had great success.

在費率談判方面，我們取得了巨大成功。

Everybody knows it's a really difficult time.

每個人都知道這是一個非常困難的時期。

We're now through the majority of those negotiations.

我們現在已經完成了大部分談判。

And in the majority of cases, our customers have agreed to keep the 2020 rate structure.

在大多數情況下，我們的客戶同意保留 2020 年的費率結構。

Not in every case, but in the majority of the cases, they've agreed to do that, recognizing the difficulties of the times.

並非在所有情況下，但在大多數情況下，他們都同意這樣做，因為他們認識到時代的困難。

And so we feel actually pretty good about that.

所以我們對此感覺非常好。

Hopefully, that answers your questions plus a little color.

希望這能回答你的問題，再加上一點色彩。

And the next question is from David Katz with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自傑弗里斯的大衛·卡茨。

Good to hear you're all well.

很高興聽到你一切都好。

You have largely addressed the 2 major buckets that I wanted to ask you about, but I'd like to just take the prior question a little bit further.

您已經基本上解決了我想問您的兩個主要問題，但我想進一步討論前面的問題。

How much thinking have you sort of put into flexible strategies around what ifs, if the timings on therapeutics and so forth or the effectiveness of distribution, et cetera?

您對靈活的策略投入了多少思考，包括假設、治療的時機等或分配的有效性等？

And I mean, specifically around the buckets of demand, which have included a majority from business versus leisure and how you sort of fill up your buckets should you have to as things move forward.

我的意思是，特別是圍繞著需求的桶，其中大部分來自商務與休閒，以及隨著事情的發展，你應該如何填滿你的桶子。

That's a great question and one we talk about around the table I'm sitting at every Monday morning when we have our executive committee meeting.

這是一個很好的問題，每週一早上我們召開執行委員會會議時，我們都會在桌子旁討論這個問題。

I mean the reality is, as you might guess, David, while that is -- I gave you a view of what I think, and I think most of our team thinks will be the -- sort of the contour of the recovery from this point forward.

我的意思是，正如你可能猜到的那樣，大衛，雖然那是——我給了你我的想法，我認為我們團隊的大多數人都認為這將是——從這次疫情中復蘇的輪廓指向前方。

We're not counting on that.

我們不指望這一點。

That is what we think, that is what we hope.

這就是我們的想法，這就是我們的希望。

Time will tell.

時間會證明一切。

I mean as my father used to say, "Son, fish where the fish are." And right now, the fish are where they are, which is certain -- a lot of leisure, frankly, not the typical leisure customers, the lower-rated leisure still.

我的意思是，正如我父親常說的：“兒子，有魚的地方就釣魚。”現在，魚就在它們所在的地方，這是肯定的——坦白說，有很多休閒活動，不是典型的休閒顧客，仍然是評價較低的休閒活動。

And business travel is a different type of business, smaller business, sales forces, frontline folks responding to the crisis.

商務旅行是一種不同類型的企業，小型企業、銷售人員、應對危機的第一線人員。

The group business, again, isn't the traditional group, but there are groups out there that are having to meet.

再說一遍，團體業務不是傳統的團體，但有些團體必須開會。

We're housing a lot of -- nobody's back -- a lot of people aren't back in offices, so they need to have places to congregate, to have meetings since they're not in their office.

我們安置了很多人——沒有人回來——很多人沒有回到辦公室，所以他們需要有地方聚集、開會，因為他們不在辦公室。

You heard me talk about WorkSpaces by Hilton, using rooms as workspaces, particularly for people that need to get out of the house and need WiFi and need some space and privacy.

您聽到我談論希爾頓的 WorkSpaces，將房間用作工作空間，特別是對於需要走出家門、需要 WiFi 以及需要一些空間和隱私的人。

And so I could keep going.

這樣我就可以繼續前進。

All our marketing campaigns have shifted, as you've seen, if you've been watching that.

正如您所看到的，如果您一直在關注的話，我們所有的行銷活動都發生了變化。

All our efforts with Honors have shifted and pivoted.

我們所有與 Honors 相關的努力都發生了轉變和調整。

So we're quite mindful of what is going on, where the fish are, to use my metaphor, and intensely focused with our commercial teams on delivering and getting more than our fair share, which I'm happy to say we are.

因此，用我的比喻來說，我們非常關注正在發生的事情、魚在哪裡，並與我們的商業團隊密切關注，以提供和獲得超過我們應得份額的成果，我很高興地說我們做到了。

If I look at our relative results in this environment, we're doing very well vis-à-vis share, so we will continue doing that.

如果我看看我們在這種環境下的相對結果，我們在份額方面做得非常好，所以我們將繼續這樣做。

But then the trick is, this isn't going to last forever.

但關鍵是，這種情況不會永遠持續下去。

And so it's not like this will be our new strategy forever.

因此，這不會永遠是我們的新策略。

It's great.

這很棒。

We're honing some new skills that we didn't need to have.

我們正在磨練一些我們不需要的新技能。

And when we get to the other side of this and we get back a more normal demand environment, we won't have -- let those muscles atrophy.

當我們到達這一點並回到更正常的需求環境時，我們將不會讓這些肌肉萎縮。

But now we'll have other skills -- other tools in our toolkit, and pricing is all about generating a lot of demand.

但現在我們將擁有其他技能——我們的工具箱中的其他工具，而定價就是為了產生大量需求。

The more demand you can generate, the higher the price you can charge.

您能產生的需求越多，您可以收取的價格就越高。

And so as we think about it, it's sort of like really dig in and refine this toolkit.

因此，當我們思考它時，這有點像是真正深入研究並完善這個工具包。

And as we get back to more normal times, take the best of both worlds to put more demand in the funnel to ultimately, intermediate and longer term, be able to price accordingly.

當我們回到更正常的時期時，充分利用兩全其美的方法，將更多的需求放入漏斗中，以便最終、中期和長期能夠相應地定價。

We're super crazy focused.

我們超瘋狂專注。

And think about it, we have -- we're a fiduciary for thousands of owners that are in the most difficult circumstances in their careers because this is the worst thing our industry has seen.

想想看，我們是成千上萬處於職業生涯中最困難環境的業主的受託人，因為這是我們行業見過的最糟糕的事情。

And our job is to make sure that we're helping them build the bridge to the other side of this.

我們的工作是確保我們正在幫助他們架起通往另一邊的橋樑。

And so it's one foot in the here and now, one foot in the future, but both solidly planted.

因此，一隻腳踩在此時此地，一隻腳踩在未來，但兩隻腳都踩得很穩。

And our next question is from Robin Farley with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的羅賓法利。

I wanted to go back to the topic of unit growth because I know you mentioned conversions were 20% of total signings in the quarter.

我想回到單位成長的話題，因為我知道您提到本季的轉換量佔總簽約量的 20%。

I'm just wondering what percent of openings they were in the quarter just given the increase in your unit growth since last quarter.

我只是想知道考慮到自上季度以來你們的單位成長有所增加，本季的職缺百分比是多少。

I'm wondering if that's conversion's driving...

我想知道這是否是轉化的推動因素...

They were about 20% in the quarter.

本季這一比例約為 20%。

And they'll be, as I think I already suggested in a prior comment, a bit more that for the full year.

正如我想我已經在之前的評論中建議的那樣，它們將比全年多一點。

But we do expect that, that -- those percentages will creep up in '21 and '22.

但我們確實預計，這些百分比將在 21 和 22 年攀升。

So the increase in your unit growth for this year from just a quarter ago sequentially, is that more just construction projects getting back on track faster?

那麼，今年的單位成長較上一個季度前連續成長，這是否只是建築項目更快回到正軌？

I didn't know that, that was...

我不知道，那是...

It's both.

兩者都是。

It's both.

兩者都是。

We're doing more.

我們正在做更多。

I mean while most of the benefit of conversions is going to happen in '21 and '22, we're getting some deals done that the world is opening up fast enough where we're going to open a bunch of incremental conversion hotels in the year for the year that we didn't think we'd open.

我的意思是，雖然轉換帶來的大部分好處將在 21 和 22 年實現，但我們正在完成一些交易，世界的開放速度足夠快，我們將在我們認為我們不會開業的那一年。

Plus, yes, now I'd say the vast majority of things that were under construction, 90-plus percent of what was under construction when we went into the crisis is back under construction.

另外，是的，現在我想說的是，絕大多數在建項目，我們陷入危機時在建項目的 90% 以上現在都在建設中。

And they're making really good progress.

他們正在取得非常好的進展。

So we assume sort of a lag effect that when things got up and going, it would take a while for things to wind back up.

因此，我們假設存在一種滯後效應，即當事情開始發展時，需要一段時間才能恢復正常。

But honestly, the construction trades around the world, particularly here in the U.S., were ready to go, and they've been worked -- ready to work.

但老實說，世界各地的建築業，尤其是美國的建築業，已經做好了準備，而且已經準備好了。

And so activity picks up a lot faster.

因此，活動的成長速度要快得多。

So we're just -- those 2 reasons are why we're delivering more this year.

所以，這兩個原因就是我們今年交付更多產品的原因。

And then just when we think about maybe some that did get pushed into next year just from your kind of pre-COVID original guidance, it sounded like your guidance for next year is in that kind of 4% to 5% range.

然後，當我們想到可能有一些確實是根據您在新冠疫情之前的原始指導而推遲到明年的時候，聽起來您對明年的指導就在 4% 到 5% 的範圍內。

Are there some things that were originally in next year's openings that just have kind of fallen off that didn't end up going forward?

是否有一些原本在明年開放的項目只是有些脫落而最終沒有繼續進行？

Not much, no.

不多，沒有。

I don't think much changed.

我認為沒有太大變化。

A little bit more will open this year, which would have probably -- we would have assumed would have pushed into next year.

今年將開放更多一點，我們以為會延到明年。

So that pulls a little bit of that out of next year into this year.

因此，這會將明年的一部分拉到今年。

But we still feel -- as I said, it's not being evasive.

但我們仍然覺得——正如我所說，這並不是迴避。

It's just really early to be hyper precise.

現在說超精確還為時過早。

I mean we can -- at this point, we're deep enough in the year that 4.5% to 5%, we can be pretty precise because some stuff might fall in or out.

我的意思是我們可以——在這一點上，我們今年已經足夠深入了 4.5% 到 5%，我們可以非常精確，因為有些東西可能會掉入或掉出。

But over the next few years, that's what I said, we think we're in the 4% to 5% range, and we're not -- you'll have to give us some time to ultimately get a little bit closer to be more precise.

但在接下來的幾年裡，這就是我所說的，我們認為我們在 4% 到 5% 的範圍內，但我們不是——你必須給我們一些時間來最終接近這個目標。

Yes, Robin, I'd just add a little bit to that.

是的，羅賓，我只想補充一點。

I mean I think the way you're thinking about it logically makes perfect sense.

我的意思是，我認為你從邏輯上思考這個問題的方式是完全合理的。

I think, though, you got to think about when we first said, half or a little bit better.

不過，我認為，你必須考慮我們第一次說的「一半或一點點」。

We were at the very beginning of the crisis in the depths of it.

我們正處於危機的最開始階段，正處於危機的最深處。

And construction -- and a lot of construction, as Chris said, had been suspended, and we really didn't know when it was going to come back online.

正如克里斯所說，許多建設已經暫停，我們真的不知道什麼時候才能恢復正常。

So we're just -- we're further into it.

所以我們只是——我們正在進一步研究它。

We've had a better experience with construction getting back up and running than we thought.

我們在施工恢復和運作方面的經驗比我們想像的要好。

And I wouldn't sort of overthink the way it affects the future years.

我不會過度思考它對未來幾年的影響。

The next question will come from Bill Crow with Raymond James.

下一個問題將由比爾·克勞和雷蒙德·詹姆斯提出。

Chris, given the positive comments from Kevin on the cash burn nearing 0 and your discussion of cost cuts and margins going forward, I'm just wondering how much confidence level you could provide that you might return to share repurchases as we look forward to 2021?

克里斯，考慮到凱文對接近0 的現金消耗的積極評論以及您對未來削減成本和利潤率的討論，我只是想知道您可以提供多少信心，讓我們期待2021 年，您可能會重新回購股票？

I think that's a really good question.

我認為這是一個非常好的問題。

I think it's a little bit premature.

我認為現在有點為時過早。

We have not changed long term our philosophy on return of capital.

長期來看，我們的資本回報理念並沒有改變。

And that is -- we believe, when we're back in a more normalized environment, that we're going to produce gargantuan amounts of free cash flow.

也就是說，我們相信，當我們回到更正常化的環境時，我們將產生大量的自由現金流。

We don't need a lot of that to grow because we've got the best brands in the business, and we think we can continue to grow organically.

我們不需要太多的資源來成長，因為我們擁有業內最好的品牌，我們認為我們可以繼續有機成長。

Thus, that capital is best given back to our shareholders, largely in the form of buybacks.

因此，這些資本最好以回購的形式回饋給我們的股東。

Our philosophy hasn't changed.

我們的理念沒有改變。

It's a little bit premature to say exactly when we get back on that program.

現在確切地說我們何時恢復該計劃還為時過早。

Obviously, our leverage levels have gone up as a result.

顯然，我們的槓桿水平因此而上升。

If you look at our net debt, it actually won't have gone up year-over-year.

如果你看看我們的淨債務，它實際上不會比去年同期增加。

But our EBITDA, as you guys can calculate in your models, even though we haven't given you guidance, has gone way down.

但是，正如你們可以在模型中計算的那樣，我們的 EBITDA 已經大幅下降，儘管我們沒有給你們指導。

So we're going to want to see our debt-to-EBITDA levels come down before we start back up with a share repurchase program.

因此，在我們開始實施股票回購計劃之前，我們希望看到我們的債務與 EBITDA 水準下降。

That doesn't mean, by the way, that it has to come necessarily all the way back down to the ranges that we've historically said.

順便說一句，這並不意味著它必須一路回落到我們歷史上所說的範圍。

But we'd want to see that we are solidly 2 feet in the ground in the next stages of recovery and that our debt-to-EBITDA levels are headed towards a more normalized level.

但我們希望看到，在下一階段的復甦中，我們已經紮實地紮根了，並且我們的債務與 EBITDA 水平正朝著更加正常化的水平邁進。

And given where we are now, which isn't feeling really good about where we are and great about our liquidity and thinking the spring is going to be when we shift gears, I think all of those things, I said all these things, that we have to -- we want to see those things happen.

考慮到我們現在的處境，我們對自己的處境感覺不太好，對我們的流動性感覺不太好，並且認為當我們換檔時春天將會到來，我認為所有這些事情，我說過所有這些事情，我們必須──我們希望看到這些事情發生。

So I think it's a fabulous question.

所以我認為這是一個很棒的問題。

I know people want to know.

我知道人們想知道。

Hopefully, that gives you some context how we think about it.

希望這能為您提供一些我們如何看待它的背景資訊。

But we're not in a position at this moment to say when exactly that will be.

但我們目前無法透露具體時間。

And the next question is from Smedes Rose with Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Smedes Rose。

I just wanted to ask you, you noted about 97% of the rooms are open.

我只是想問你，你注意到大約 97% 的房間是開放的。

So I realize it's a small percentage of the room base that's closed.

所以我意識到只有一小部分房間是關閉的。

But is that skewing -- that chunk of like 25,000 to 30,000 rooms, is that skewing towards the owned and leased portfolio?

但這種偏向——大約 25,000 到 30,000 個房間的部分，是否偏向自有和租賃的投資組合？

Or is it more across the board?

還是更全面？

And do you see any of those maybe not reopening?

您是否看到其中任何一個可能不會重新開放？

Yes.

是的。

I think the vast majority will open, to answer the last one first.

我想絕大多數都會開放，先回答最後一個。

There may be a few here and there that don't.

可能到處都有一些不是這樣的。

But I think it skews very heavily to urban destinations in the U.S. and then Europe.

但我認為它嚴重偏向美國和歐洲的城市目的地。

That's what it skews very heavily towards.

這就是它非常偏向的方向。

I mean, obviously, with Europe going backwards, we still had more to open in Europe, and now they've gone back and locked down.

我的意思是，很明顯，隨著歐洲的倒退，我們在歐洲還有更多的地方要開放，但現在他們已經倒退並封鎖了。

So our progress there slowed.

所以我們在那裡的進展減慢了。

We may have some hotels go back into suspension in Europe.

我們可能會讓歐洲的一些飯店重新暫停營業。

And then in the U.S., it's almost entirely big urban hotels -- the big urban markets that are suffering the most.

然後在美國，幾乎全是大型城市酒店——受影響最嚴重的大城市市場。

So does that would -- so I guess then it would skew also to kind of the owned and leased portfolio, which I know is small, but it just...

所以我想它也會偏向擁有和租賃的投資組合，我知道這個投資組合很小，但它只是...

Well, no.

嗯，不。

As we -- we don't -- actually, all of our owned and leased hotels are open at the moment.

事實上，我們所有的自有和租賃的酒店目前都在營業。

Now we do have some hotels that are in some of the parts of the world that are going back on lockdown...

現在，世界上一些地區的一些酒店正在重新封鎖…

Yes, we did...

是的我們做了...

Yes, in Europe and the U.K. But -- so we could have some that go back.

是的，在歐洲和英國，但是——所以我們可以讓一些東西回去。

But at the moment, all of our owned and leased hotels are open.

但目前，我們所有自有和租賃的酒店均已開放。

Yes, it skews.

是的，它傾斜了。

It skews heavily towards the management franchise, almost -- well, I would say very heavily towards managed and to a lesser degree, franchised.

它嚴重偏向管理特許經營，幾乎——嗯，我會說非常偏向管理，在較小程度上偏向特許經營。

The next question is from Richard Clarke with Bernstein.

下一個問題是理查德·克拉克和伯恩斯坦提出的。

I just want to ask a question on loyalty.

我只是想問一個關於忠誠度的問題。

How much has loyalty been a boost to your cash flow through the last couple of quarters?

在過去的幾個季度中，忠誠度對您的現金流有多大的促進作用？

Are you still getting money from the credit cards?

你還在用信用卡提款嗎？

And I suppose as the follow-up to that, you'll probably come out of this crisis with a bigger loyalty liability than you normally would have.

我想，作為後續行動，你在走出這場危機時可能會承擔比平常更大的忠誠責任。

And how do you think about managing that with regard to cash flow over the next couple of years?

您如何看待未來幾年的現金流管理？

And how does that feed into your thoughts about what the balance sheet should look like?

這對您關於資產負債表應該是什麼樣子的想法有何影響？

Yes.

是的。

Rich, I'd say generally, I don't think we will come out of this with a materially higher liability than we have.

總的來說，我想說的是，我不認為我們會承擔比現在高得多的責任。

If you think about the -- it's a complicated equation of what we take in and what we put on the balance sheet in terms of the liability.

如果你想一想，這是一個複雜的等式，其中包括我們所吸收的內容以及我們在資產負債表上以負債形式記入的內容。

But it all -- it does self-regulate in the sense that when rates are lower, the cost of redemptions is lower, the folio charges are lower.

但它確實是自我調節的，當利率較低時，贖回成本較低，帳單費用較低。

And we run the whole thing generally breakeven.

我們的經營大致上是收支平衡的。

And so it's not a material contributor either way to our cash flow.

因此，無論哪種方式，它都不是我們現金流的實質貢獻者。

There is a portion of the credit card remuneration that is ours.

信用卡報酬中有一部分是我們的。

As you can imagine, credit card spend is down.

正如你可以想像的那樣，信用卡支出下降了。

So those -- that remuneration is down, although not nearly as much as RevPAR.

因此，薪資下降了，儘管沒有達到 RevPAR 那麼多。

So it's not a big swing one way or the other.

因此，無論從哪一方面來看，這都不是一個大的波動。

The next question is from Patrick Scholes with Truist.

下一個問題是帕特里克·斯科爾斯和 Truist 提出的。

I wonder if you could comment about what you're observing for group booking and cancellation trends for both 1Q and 2Q of next year?

我想知道您是否可以評論一下您對明年第一季和第二季團體預訂和取消趨勢的觀察？

Yes.

是的。

Well, it's probably not going to shock you.

好吧，這可能不會讓你感到震驚。

I mean we are a booking business, by the way, in the year for the year still and not in significant amounts.

順便說一句，我的意思是，我們是預訂業務，今年仍然如此，而且數量並不大。

But as I said earlier, it's for unique types of group meetings, smaller corporate meetings in lieu of people being in the office, sports-related group and groups related to recovery efforts and crisis-related efforts.

但正如我之前所說，它適用於獨特類型的團體會議、取代辦公室人員的小型企業會議、體育相關團體以及與復原工作和危機相關工作相關的團體。

As you look at more traditional group bookings or rebookings, because obviously, our objective is to try and rebook everything evenly possible that is getting canceled this year.

當您查看更傳統的團體預訂或重新預訂時，因為顯然，我們的目標是嘗試重新預訂今年取消的所有可能的航班。

And we've done, I think, a very good job of doing that.

我認為，我們在這方面做得非常好。

I would say at this point, while we're booking a lot of -- booking and rebooking increasingly significant business into next year, I would say very little of it is into Q1.

我想說，在這一點上，雖然我們正在預訂大量的業務——預訂和重新預訂越來越重要的業務到明年，但我想說的是，第一季的業務很少。

Some of it is into Q2, and the bulk of it is into Qs 3 and 4.

其中一些進入了 Q2，大部分進入了 Qs 3 和 4。

And that's for the reasons -- it's sort of been implied in most of what I've said.

這就是原因——我所說的大部分內容都暗示了這一點。

I think everybody is sort of like on hold for the winter season.

我認為每個人都有點像在冬季等待。

Let's get through the flu season, let's get these vaccines sorted out through Phase III and see if we can't start putting shots in people's arms.

讓我們度過流感季節，讓我們在第三階段對這些疫苗進行整理，看看我們是否可以開始為人們的手臂注射疫苗。

And so if you're planning a big group meeting, you just -- at this point that you're in November, you're not doing it in the first quarter.

因此，如果您計劃召開大型小組會議，那麼您就在 11 月的這一點上進行，而不是在第一季進行。

You're a little hesitant on second quarter, although some of that's happening.

你對第二季有點猶豫，儘管有些事情正在發生。

But the bulk of what we're booking, which is picking up at a pretty good velocity is in the second half of next year and beyond.

但我們預訂的大部分訂單將在明年下半年及以後以相當快的速度成長。

The next question is from Anthony Powell with Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的安東尼·鮑威爾。

You mentioned that you saw interest in your select service brands.

您提到您對您選擇的服務品牌感興趣。

Could you maybe sell from [whom or they're from] new developers, different types of owners?

您可以從[他們或他們的]新開發商、不同類型的業主那裡出售嗎？

And given kind of the relative resilience of that segment, the cycle, could that lead to more interest in those brands going forward and a higher share for you in the development pipeline at a peak in the next cycle?

考慮到該細分市場（週期）的相對彈性，這是否會導致人們對這些品牌的未來產生更多興趣，並在下一個週期的高峰期為您帶來更高的開發通路份額？

Yes.

是的。

I think it's -- commonsensically, the reason we're seeing it is because I do believe we have a lot of owners that are still very, very strong.

我認為，從常識上講，我們看到這種情況的原因是因為我確實相信我們有很多仍然非常非常強大的所有者。

I think they're of the mind that if you're going to build, the best time to build is during down cycles so that you deliver things into an up cycle.

我認為他們的想法是，如果你要進行建設，那麼最好的建設時間是在下行週期，這樣你就可以將事情交付到上升週期。

I think many of them fall into our sort of select service development community.

我認為他們中的許多人都屬於我們精選的服務開發社群。

And they're looking at this as an opportunity to maybe pick better sites with the best brands and sort of lock their position and then go out and see if they can get it financed and get it going with the belief that they'll deliver into a significant upswing.

他們將此視為一個機會，也許可以選擇擁有最佳品牌的更好網站，並鎖定自己的位置，然後出去看看是否可以獲得融資，並相信他們將交付顯著上升。

And so I would say there's certainly some -- I mean I'd just let -- Kevin answered it.

所以我想說肯定有一些——我的意思是我會讓——凱文回答這個問題。

There's certainly some new owners.

當然還有一些新主人。

But I'd say it's really our -- almost all of it, my sense is, anecdotally, is from our existing owner base.

但我想說，這確實是我們的——幾乎所有的，我的感覺是，有趣的是，都來自我們現有的所有者基礎。

The other thing is, this is the stuff that can get done, right?

另一件事是，這是可以完成的事情，對吧？

I mean, by the way, this was the trend pre COVID.

順便說一下，我的意思是，這是新冠疫情之前的趨勢。

The bulk of -- if you look at the U.S., particularly, the bulk of what was getting done in the U.S. was all in the limited service space.

如果你特別看看美國，你會發現美國所做的大部分工作都是在有限的服務空間內完成的。

That was true then.

那時確實如此。

It's even more true now just in terms of the economic model behind it, the margins that they can run, cost to build and all that fun stuff.

現在就背後的經濟模型、他們可以運行的利潤、建造成本以及所有這些有趣的東西而言，這一點更加正確。

So I think it's -- I don't think it's a particularly new thing.

所以我認為這並不是什麼特別新的事情。

I think our brands are really, really strong.

我認為我們的品牌非常非常強大。

They deliver incredible share.

他們提供了令人難以置信的份額。

I think people want to take advantage of the crisis to position themselves with the best opportunities for when they get to the other side.

我認為人們希望利用危機為自己找到到達彼岸時的最佳機會。

Yes.

是的。

And probably just worth adding, Anthony, we did mention that in the prepared remarks.

也許值得補充的是，安東尼，我們確實在準備好的演講中提到了這一點。

That was quarter-over-quarter growth, I think, in signings in focused service.

我認為，這是重點服務簽約量的季度環比增長。

I'd say, broadly speaking, the skew between existing owners and new owners, probably a little bit more existing because I just think you have to be pretty well healed in the development world to get something done at this point.

我想說，從廣義上講，現有所有者和新所有者之間的偏差可能更存在一些，因為我只是認為你必須在開發世界中得到很好的治愈才能在這一點上完成一些事情。

But worth noting that our -- both our approvals and signings over the course of the third quarter were about 1/3 full service, 2/3 limited select service or focused service and pretty well distributed geographically.

但值得注意的是，我們在第三季的批准和簽約都大約有 1/3 為全面服務，2/3 為有限選擇服務或重點服務，而且地理分佈相當均勻。

And that's all pretty consistent with prior -- what we -- our experience in prior quarters and prior years.

這與我們之前幾個季度和前幾年的經驗非常一致。

So not a lot new there.

所以那裡沒有太多新東西。

The next question is from Jared Shojaian with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Jared Shojaian。

Can you just talk about how occupancy trends have evolved in China?

能談談中國的入住趨勢是如何演變的嗎？

Specifically, where is business travel versus leisure travel today versus the prior peak?

具體來說，與之前的高峰相比，今天的商務旅行與休閒旅行的情況如何？

And then just one unrelated clarification.

然後只是一項無關的澄清。

When you say G&A down 25% to 30%, does that mean the entire year in 2020 is down 25% to 30%?

當您說 G&A 下降 25% 至 30% 時，是否意味著 2020 年全年下降 25% 至 30%？

Or should we assume fourth quarter is also down 25% to 30%, and that's the run rate level going forward?

或者我們應該假設第四季也下降 25% 到 30%，這就是未來的運行率水準？

That is the full year 2020, and I'll let Kevin talk about China.

2020年已經過去了，我讓凱文談談中國。

Yes.

是的。

In China, for -- during the third quarter, China was about 50% leisure, 30% corporate, 20% group.

在中國，第三季度，中國休閒遊客佔 50%，企業佔 30%，團體佔 20%。

So that was a little bit less leisure and a touch more group than in prior quarters.

因此，與前幾個季度相比，休閒活動有所減少，而團體活動則有所增加。

I actually don't have in front of me where it was to prior peak.

事實上，我面前並沒有達到之前的峰值。

I suspect still skewed more towards leisure than it would have been on a normalized basis.

我懷疑仍然比正常情況下更傾向於休閒。

And the next question is from Vince Ciepiel with Cleveland Research.

下一個問題來自克里夫蘭研究中心的文斯‧西皮爾 (Vince Ciepiel)。

I wanted to touch a bit on distribution.

我想談談發行方面的問題。

Could you talk about what you've seen over the last couple of quarters in terms of direct business versus OTA share?

您能否談談過去幾季直接業務與 OTA 份額方面的情況？

And if coming through this pandemic, as you evaluate the distribution going into next year or years into the future on a recovery of demand, you've made great strides driving more direct business.

如果經歷了這場大流行，當您評估明年或未來幾年需求復甦的分佈時，您已經在推動更直接的業務方面取得了巨大進展。

I'm just curious if this changes that at all or further accelerates the gains you've seen on that path.

我只是好奇這是否會改變或進一步加速你在這條道路上看到的成果。

Yes.

是的。

I don't think -- I mean what's interesting is I don't -- long term, I don't think it changes anything.

我不認為——我的意思是有趣的是我不——長期來看，我認為這不會改變任何事情。

I think if you looked at like our OTA percentages through Q2, they were tracking pretty consistent with where we've been over the last couple of years.

我認為，如果你看看我們第二季度的 OTA 百分比，你會發現他們的追蹤情況與我們過去幾年的情況非常一致。

Q3, they were up as we would have expected, just given the base of business, which was non-frequent, non-loyal leisure business during the summer that was -- that is more OTA-oriented.

第三季度，它們的成長正如我們預期的那樣，只是考慮到業務基礎，即夏季期間不頻繁、非忠誠的休閒業務，即更以 OTA 為導向。

So it was up not in any alarming way, but it was up.

所以它的上漲並沒有以任何令人震驚的方式出現，但它確實上漲了。

And we expected it, and we wanted it to be up in the sense that we wanted access to those customers.

我們預料到了這一點，我們希望它能夠上升，因為我們希望接觸到這些客戶。

Our attitude on the long term hasn't changed.

我們對長期的態度沒有改變。

Our attitude with the OTAs is they've been good partners for certain types of business.

我們對 OTA 的態度是，他們一直是某些類型業務的良好合作夥伴。

We love working with them through the crisis.

我們喜歡與他們一起度過危機。

There's been plenty of pockets of demand that have been helpful to us and our ownership community work with them on.

有大量的需求對我們和我們的業主社區與他們的合作很有幫助。

But at the same time, as you point out, we've been on a long-term trajectory.

但同時，正如您所指出的，我們一直走在長期發展的軌道上。

And during COVID, similarly, to build more direct relationships, build more loyalty, give customers more reasons through what we're doing with our digital platform, what we're doing with Honors, that value proposition and the like, what we're doing now with CleanStay and cleanliness and hygiene and all of the things that have come out of the COVID crisis to give people more reason to want to come directly to us.

同樣，在新冠疫情期間，為了建立更直接的關係，建立更多的忠誠度，透過我們在數位平台上所做的事情、我們在榮譽方面所做的事情、價值主張等，為客戶提供更多理由。

And so in a more normalized demand environment, I think the things that we've done in the crisis are going to put us in a really good position to continue down the path of building even more direct relationships and even more direct business.

因此，在更正常化的需求環境中，我認為我們在危機中所做的事情將使我們處於一個非常有利的位置，可以繼續沿著建立更直接的關係和更直接的業務的道路前進。

In the interim, we're going to obviously do a bit more business with the OTAs because it's the right thing to do.

在此期間，我們顯然將與 OTA 開展更多業務，因為這是正確的做法。

In terms of distribution mix, the majority of our distribution comes from direct channels.

在分銷組合方面，我們大部分的分銷來自直接通路。

Almost 3/4 of it comes from direct channels.

其中近3/4來自直接通路。

I mean the thing that's been interesting, there's been some shift outs, which wouldn't surprise you.

我的意思是，有趣的是，出現了一些轉變，這不會讓你感到驚訝。

I mean if you had asked me this a year ago, I would have said, "Gosh, it's hard to imagine." But what's happened is our percentage of direct has stayed about the same.

我的意思是，如果你一年前問我這個問題，我會說，“天哪，這很難想像。”但實際情況是我們的直接比例不變。

It's just shifted where hotel direct has gone way up, and our -- and digital channels, other channels have gone down, which seems crazy, but it's just the type of business.

它只是發生了變化，酒店直銷大幅上升，而我們的數位管道和其他管道卻下降了，這看起來很瘋狂，但這就是業務類型。

And people -- literally, we have 2/3 of our businesses booked within 7 days and like 40% of it almost is booked within the day.

從字面上看，我們 2/3 的業務是在 7 天內預訂的，其中 40% 幾乎是在當天預訂的。

And so it's a lot of like drive-through business.

所以這很像免下車業務。

People pick up the phone and call like the old days.

人們像以前一樣拿起電話打電話。

Obviously, that won't be maintained.

顯然，這不會被維持。

And then the OTA swap-out, so the OTAs have gone up a little bit.

然後是 OTA 換出，所以 OTA 上漲了一點。

But what has gone down is the GDS on the other side.

但下降的是另一邊的GDS。

We could argue about GDS sort of effectively being a direct channel the way we think about it, but we don't.

我們可能會爭論 GDS 實際上是我們所認為的直接管道，但我們沒有。

But what has happened is the GDS has gone down because the traditional corporate business that comes through that has evaporated to a large extent, and it's been replaced by OTA-type business.

但實際情況是，GDS已經走下坡路了，因為它所帶來的傳統企業業務已經在很大程度上蒸發了，取而代之的是OTA類型的業務。

So ironically, when you net it all out, we're almost in the exact same place.

諷刺的是，當你把一切都算出來時，我們幾乎處於完全相同的位置。

But sort of a funny world for the moment, I have every expectation as we get to more typical demand levels that those things will all go back to more normal -- a more normal trajectory.

但目前的世界有點有趣，當我們達到更典型的需求水平時，我滿懷期望，這些事情都會回到更正常的狀態——更正常的軌跡。

And I feel very good about what we're doing vis-à-vis Honors and our customers to keep building direct relationships.

我對我們為保持與榮譽客會和客戶建立直接關係所做的事情感到非常滿意。

The next question will be from Rich Hightower with Evercore.

下一個問題將由 Evercore 的 Rich Hightower 提出。

I was hoping to get you to opine a little bit on short-term rentals.

我希望您能就短期租賃發表一些意見。

And when you think about the recovery and maybe some share gains in that segment over the course of the summer and through Labor Day, did that surprise you at all?

當你想到夏季和勞動節期間該領域的復甦以及可能的一些份額增長時，你是否感到驚訝？

And Chris, you've made comments in the past about how it's not precisely the same customer that Hilton is going after, but would you make that same statement today?

克里斯，您過去曾評論過希爾頓所追求的客戶與希爾頓並不完全相同，但您今天會發表相同的聲明嗎？

Good, a really good question.

好，一個非常好的問題。

And it doesn't really change my view in the sense that I won't make you suffer through the whole thing because you guys know us.

這並沒有真正改變我的觀點，因為我不會讓你們經歷整件事，因為你們了解我們。

But I do believe that's fundamentally a different business.

但我確實相信這是一個根本不同的行業。

We're in the branded business where we take very consistent product, very consistent service delivery, amenities wrapped in with a product, loyalty, we wrap it all together, and we sell it for a premium versus something that satisfies the customers' needs But is not going to have the consistency, the service, the amenities.

我們從事品牌業務，我們採用非常一致的產品，非常一致的服務交付，產品中包含的便利設施，忠誠度，我們將所有這些都包裝在一起，並且我們以溢價出售它，而不是滿足客戶需求的東西但是不會有一致性、服務和便利設施。

Could have loyalty, but at the moment, it doesn't really have loyalty and it results -- as a result, more of a value proposition.

可能有忠誠度，但目前，它並沒有真正具有忠誠度，而且它的結果 - 結果，更多的是一個價值主張。

I just think we fundamentally believe we're in the hospitality business and we get the premiums we get because we do something different and that our business is good and that their business is good, right?

我只是認為我們從根本上相信我們從事酒店業，我們獲得溢價是因為我們做了一些不同的事情，我們的業務很好，他們的業務也很好，對嗎？

But they're -- and while they're related, they're -- fundamentally, we're trying to do different things.

但它們是——雖然它們是相關的，但從根本上說，我們正在嘗試做不同的事情。

Now I'm not at all surprised.

現在我一點也不感到驚訝。

I had every expectation that this would be good for them.

我滿心期待這對他們有好處。

Just think about what I said about where the business is coming from.

想想我所說的業務從何而來。

The bulk of the business this summer was value-oriented leisure business.

今年夏天的大部分業務是價值導向的休閒業務。

That is like a bull's eye for those platforms.

這就像是這些平台的靶心。

And so that's great for them.

這對他們來說很好。

And if you had an expectation that, that is all the demand that was going to be available, that this was a secular shift, it would be an issue.

如果你期望這就是所有可用的需求，這是一個長期的轉變，那麼這將是一個問題。

I do not believe that.

我不相信。

I believe that when we wake up in 2 or 3 years and incrementally over those 2 or 3 years, we will get back to a more normalized environment in terms of demand.

我相信，當我們在兩三年內醒來並在這兩三年內逐步醒來時，我們將在需求方面回到更正常化的環境。

And that what we do, that people have been willing to pay a big premium for, they will continue as we get through this crisis to want to stay with us and pay us that premium.

人們願意為我們所做的事情付出高昂的溢價，當我們度過這場危機時，他們將繼續留在我們身邊並向我們支付溢價。

They will also, for certain stay occasions, want to stay with them for a different type of value proposition.

在某些停留場合，他們也會希望與他們一起留下來以獲得不同類型的價值主張。

So it wasn't surprising to us at all.

所以這對我們來說一點也不奇怪。

It makes all the sense in the world just given the -- if you look at the bucket of demand, the biggest bucket of demand that's out there at the moment.

如果你看看需求量，這是目前世界上最大的需求量，這在世界上是有意義的。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question-and-answer session.

女士們先生們，我們的問答環節到此結束。

I would like to turn the conference back over to Chris Nassetta for any closing remarks.

我想將會議轉回克里斯·納塞塔（Chris Nassetta）發表閉幕詞。

Well, thank you, everybody, for joining us.

好的，謝謝大家加入我們。

I hope everybody that didn't get rest get some rest today.

希望今天沒休息的大家也能好好休息。

We'll see what happens with all of these crazy elections here in the U.S. We appreciate the time.

我們將看看美國所有這些瘋狂的選舉會發生什麼。

Obviously, a lot going on in the world, a lot going on with the business.

顯然，世界上發生了很多事情，商業上也發生了很多事情。

We feel, as I said in my comments, really good about the progress.

正如我在評論中所說，我們對進展感到非常滿意。

I think we're set up, certainly from a liquidity point of view, in a really good place, but I also think in terms of what we've been doing for our ownership community, what we've been doing with our customers, how we've been taking care of our teams, what we've been doing from a cost structure point of view.

我認為，當然從流動性的角度來看，我們處於一個非常好的位置，但我也認為，就我們為所有權社區所做的事情、我們與客戶所做的事情而言，我們如何照顧我們的團隊，從成本結構的角度來看我們一直在做什麼。

I do believe in my heart of hearts that when we get to the other side of this, we're a bigger, better, stronger, more efficient higher-margin business.

我內心深處相信，當我們到達這一點時，我們將成為一家更大、更好、更強、更有效率、利潤率更高的企業。

And so we'll look forward to continuing to update you on -- as the journey unfolds.

因此，隨著旅程的展開，我們期待繼續向您通報最新情況。

Thanks, and have a great day.

謝謝，祝你有美好的一天。

The conference has now concluded.

會議現已結束。

Thank you for attending today's presentation.

感謝您參加今天的演講。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。