希爾頓酒店 (HLT) 2020 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Hilton First Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call.

早安，歡迎參加希爾頓 2020 年第一季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) After today's prepared remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session.

（操作員指示）今天準備好的發言之後，將進行問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Please also note today's event is being recorded.

（操作員說明）也請注意今天的活動正在錄製中。

And at this time, I'd like to turn the conference call over to Jill Slattery, Vice President, Investor Relations.

此時，我想將電話會議轉給投資者關係副總裁 Jill Slattery。

Ma'am, please go ahead.

女士，請繼續。

Thank you, Jamie.

謝謝你，傑米。

Welcome to Hilton's First Quarter 2020 Earnings Call.

歡迎參加希爾頓 2020 年第一季財報電話會議。

Before we begin, we would like to remind you that our discussions this morning will include forward-looking statements.

在開始之前，我們想提醒您，我們今天上午的討論將包括前瞻性陳述。

Actual results could differ materially from those indicated in the forward-looking statements, and forward-looking statements made today speak only to our expectations as of today.

實際結果可能與前瞻性聲明中所示的結果有重大差異，今天發表的前瞻性聲明僅代表我們截至目前為止的預期。

We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise these statements.

我們不承擔公開更新或修改這些聲明的義務。

For a discussion of some of the risk factors that could cause actual results to differ, please see the risk factors section of our most recently filed Form 10-K as supplemented by our Form 8-K filed on April 16, 2020.

有關可能導致實際結果不同的一些風險因素的討論，請參閱我們最近提交的 10-K 表格的風險因素部分，並由 2020 年 4 月 16 日提交的 8-K 表格進行補充。

In addition, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures on this call.

此外，我們將在本次電話會議上提及某些非公認會計準則財務指標。

You can find reconciliations of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures discussed in today's call in our earnings press release and on our website at ir.hilton.com.

您可以在我們的收益新聞稿和我們的網站 ir.hilton.com 上找到今天電話會議中討論的非 GAAP 與 GAAP 財務指標的調整表。

This morning, Chris Nassetta, our President and Chief Executive Officer, will provide an overview of the current operating environment.

今天早上，我們的總裁兼執行長 Chris Nassetta 將概述當前的營運環境。

Kevin Jacobs, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, will then review our first quarter results.

我們的執行副總裁兼財務長凱文·雅各布斯隨後將審查我們第一季的業績。

Following their remarks, we'll be happy to take your questions.

在他們的發言之後，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

With that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Chris.

至此，我很高興將電話轉給克里斯。

Thank you, Jill.

謝謝你，吉爾。

Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us today.

大家早安，感謝您今天加入我們。

As I think we can all agree and certainly probably have all been saying a lot lately, these are truly unprecedented times.

我想我們都同意，而且最近肯定都說了很多，這確實是前所未有的時代。

COVID-19 has created challenges that our industry has never encountered before.

COVID-19 為我們的行業帶來了前所未有的挑戰。

On behalf of Hilton's entire leadership team, I'd like to express our deepest sympathy to those who have lost loved ones during this devastating pandemic.

我謹代表希爾頓的整個領導團隊，向在這場毀滅性的大流行中失去親人的人們表示最深切的同情。

I'd also like to extend our sincere gratitude to the millions of workers on the front lines across many industries and in many roles, working selflessly to help keep us all safe.

我還要向各行各業、擔任許多職務的數百萬一線工作人員致以誠摯的謝意，他們無私地工作，幫助保障我們所有人的安全。

I also want to thank our team members around the world for their remarkable dedication, hard work and sacrifice.

我還要感謝我們世界各地的團隊成員的卓越奉獻、辛勤工作和犧牲。

Many of our own team members have been personally impacted by this crisis.

我們自己的許多團隊成員都受到了這場危機的個人影響。

And yet, through this adversity, they've continued to spread the light and warmth of hospitality.

然而，在這場逆境中，他們繼續傳播熱情好客的光明和溫暖。

Across every region, we've adapted quickly to provide hospitality in new ways in our communities.

在每個地區，我們都迅速適應，以新的方式在我們的社區提供熱情好客的服務。

In London, several of our properties are hosting the National Health Service and other key workers.

在倫敦，我們的幾間飯店接待著國家衛生服務中心和其他關鍵工作人員。

The Hilton Orlando has been hosting the National Guard and working to distribute essential items to community residents in need.

奧蘭多希爾頓酒店一直接待國民警衛隊，並努力向有需要的社區居民分發必需品。

And over 500 hotels around the world are being used for recovery efforts.

全球有超過 500 家飯店正在投入復原工作。

Our properties have also donated thousands of pounds of food and supplies to local food banks.

我們的飯店也向當地食物銀行捐贈了數千磅的食物和物資。

Through the Hilton Effect Foundation, we are providing disaster response grants for organizations and communities fighting the spread of COVID-19.

透過希爾頓效應基金會，我們正在為對抗 COVID-19 傳播的組織和社區提供救災補助金。

As part of this effort, our Hilton Honors members have donated more than 6.5 million points to these causes.

作為這項努力的一部分，我們的希爾頓榮譽客會會員已為這些事業捐贈了超過 650 萬積分。

In partnership with American Express and our ownership community, we committed to donating up to 1 million room nights to frontline medical professionals in the United States to support those who are putting their lives on the line to protect us.

我們與美國運通和我們的業主社區合作，承諾向美國的一線醫療專業人員捐贈多達 100 萬個間夜，以支持那些冒著生命危險保護我們的人們。

Since its launch just 4 weeks ago, tens of thousands of medical professionals have booked hundreds of thousands of rooms through the program.

自 4 週前推出以來，已有數萬名醫療專業人員透過該計畫預訂了數十萬間客房。

Further building on this initiative, just this week, we and American Express announced a partnership with World Central Kitchen to deliver freshly prepared meals at no charge from restaurants in local communities to frontline responders staying at our hotels.

在這項措施的基礎上，就在本週，我們和美國運通宣布與世界中央廚房建立合作夥伴關係，從當地社區的餐廳向入住我們酒店的一線救援人員免費提供新鮮烹製的餐食。

Already active in 3 major markets, there are plans to expand this initiative in the coming weeks.

該計劃已經活躍在 3 個主要市場，並計劃在未來幾週內擴大這項計劃。

Turning to the business.

轉向業務。

To ensure we effectively navigate this challenging time, we've focused our priorities on 3 core areas: protect our people, protect our core business and prepare for recovery.

為了確保我們有效度過這個充滿挑戰的時期，我們將優先事項集中在三個核心領域：保護我們的員工、保護我們的核心業務以及為復甦做好準備。

While our long-term goal remains the same, to drive loyalty across all of our stakeholders, the current situation requires greater levels of responsiveness and preparedness in the near term.

雖然我們的長期目標保持不變，即提高所有利害關係人的忠誠度，但當前情況需要在短期內做出更高水準的回應和準備。

With this in mind, we've worked closely with industry associations and the administration to advocate on behalf of our team members and hotel owners, and to help shape the broader recovery.

考慮到這一點，我們與行業協會和政府部門密切合作，代表我們的團隊成員和酒店業主進行宣傳，並幫助塑造更廣泛的復甦。

Given our leadership team's extensive crisis management experience, coupled with the global nature of our business, we had a relatively early glimpse of the impact this pandemic started to have in the Asia Pacific region.

鑑於我們的領導團隊豐富的危機管理經驗，加上我們業務的全球性質，我們相對較早地了解了這場流行病開始對亞太地區產生的影響。

In response, we took swift action to protect our business and ensure that we have sufficient liquidity to operate in these unprecedented times.

作為回應，我們迅速採取行動保護我們的業務，並確保我們有足夠的流動性在這個前所未有的時期運作。

But travel demand had record lows.

但旅行需求創歷史新低。

We currently have suspended operations at approximately 950 or 16% of our hotels globally, including approximately 10% of our hotels in the Americas, 60% of our hotels in Europe, the Middle East and Africa and 15% of our hotels in Asia Pacific.

目前，我們已暫停全球約 950 家或 16% 的酒店的運營，其中包括美洲約 10% 的酒店、歐洲、中東和非洲約 60% 的酒店以及亞太地區 15% 的酒店。

At the hotel level, we acted quickly at the beginning of the crisis to make decisions to help our owners respond, including suspending hotel operations, temporarily suspending brand and operating standards, deferring capital expenditure requirements, eliminating quality assurance audits and allowing the use of FF&E reserves for operating expenses.

在酒店層面，我們在危機之初迅速採取行動，做出決策幫助業主應對，包括暫停酒店運營、暫時中止品牌和運營標準、推遲資本支出要求、取消質量保證審計以及允許使用 FF&E運營費用儲備。

Going forward, we are working closely with our ownership community to define the hotel operating model of the future, with the goal of developing operating standards that will keep our customers safe and drive enhanced efficiency and profitability while continuing to deliver products and service that customers will pay a premium for.

展望未來，我們將與我們的業主群體密切合作，定義未來的酒店營運模式，目標是製定營運標準，確保客戶的安全並提高效率和盈利能力，同時繼續提供客戶期望的產品和服務。

At the corporate level, we've reduced executive salaries, furloughed nearly 2/3 of our corporate workforce, eliminated other nonessential expenses, including capital expenditures, and suspended share buybacks and dividends.

在公司層面，我們降低了高階主管薪酬，讓近 2/3 的公司員工休假，取消了包括資本支出在內的其他非必要開支，並暫停了股票回購和股息。

Further, as a precautionary measure to preserve financial flexibility, we drew down on the remaining amount under our credit facility, presold Hilton Honors points to American Express and successfully executed a bond offering, all of which resulted in a pro forma cash position of $3.8 billion at the end of the quarter, which we believe is more than adequate liquidity to get us through the crisis.

此外，作為維持財務靈活性的預防措施，我們動用了信貸額度下的剩餘金額，將希爾頓榮譽客會積分預售給美國運通，並成功發行了債券，所有這些都帶來了38 億美元的預計現金部位在本季末，我們認為流動性足以幫助我們度過危機。

Turning to the quarter.

轉向季度。

RevPAR declined 23%, with performance through February largely in line with our expectations, excluding the Asia Pacific region.

RevPAR 下降了 23%，整個 2 月的業績基本上符合我們的預期（不包括亞太地區）。

RevPAR in March dropped 57% as the virus spread across Europe and the U.S. Overall, we do not think our first quarter results provide clear insight into the current environment as the timing of the pandemic and we -- given the timing of the pandemic, and we expect a much more dramatic impact on our second quarter results.

隨著病毒在歐洲和美國蔓延，3 月份的每間可用客房收入下降了57%。 —考慮到大流行的時間，以及我們預計這會對我們第二季的業績產生更大的影響。

With travel at a virtual standstill, we expect system-wide RevPAR declined roughly 90% in April.

由於出行幾乎陷入停滯，我們預計 4 月全系統 RevPAR 將下降約 90%。

With that being said, we are starting to see glimmers of travel resuming and economies reopening.

話雖如此，我們開始看到旅行恢復和經濟重新開放的曙光。

In China, nearly all 150 hotels that have been closed due to the pandemic have since reopened, with occupancies reaching more than 50% during the May Day holiday this past weekend, up significantly from 9% in early February.

在中國，因疫情而關閉的150家飯店幾乎全部重新開業，上週末五一假期入住率達50%以上，遠高於2月初的9%。

Additionally, the majority of our previously halted construction projects in China have restarted.

此外，我們先前在中國暫停的大部分建設項目已重新啟動。

In the U.S. and Europe, we're starting to see sensible and stage (sic) [sage] reopenings of economies.

在美國和歐洲，我們開始看到經濟的合理且階段性的重新開放。

We think temporary hotel suspensions have plateaued, and we are now seeing reopening requests.

我們認為飯店的臨時停業已經趨於穩定，我們現在看到了重新開放的請求。

Our sales teams are engaged with customers on business for the back half of the year and into 2021 and beyond.

我們的銷售團隊將在今年下半年以及 2021 年及以後與客戶進行業務往來。

In the last week alone, we booked tens of millions of dollars in group business in the Americas.

光是上週，我們就在美洲預訂了數千萬美元的集團業務。

In addition, we are starting to see double-digit increases in digital traffic and booking activity across all segments.

此外，我們開始看到所有細分市場的數位流量和預訂活動都出現兩位數的成長。

Global occupancy levels have gone from a low point of 13% to 23% currently.

全球入住率已從 13% 的低點升至目前的 23%。

Assuming we start to see mobility and we don't have a significant recurrence, demand should slowly rebuild in the third quarter.

假設我們開始看到流動性並且沒有明顯的復發，那麼需求應該會在第三季緩慢重建。

These green shoots allow us to keep our eye on what the future of hospitality may look like.

這些萌芽讓我們能夠密切關注酒店業的未來。

As we carefully consider what travelers' needs will be in a post-COVID-19 world, we are proud to announce a partnership with Lysol and the Mayo Clinic last week to introduce Hilton Clean Stay, a new program that will deliver an industry-defining standard of cleanliness at all of our properties around the world.

當我們仔細考慮旅客在後COVID-19 時代的需求時，我們很自豪地宣布上週與Lysol 和Mayo Clinic 建立合作夥伴關係，推出希爾頓清潔住宿(Hilton Clean Stay)，這是一項新計劃，將提供行業定義的服務我們在世界各地所有酒店的清潔標準。

We believe this program is the first of many steps we can take to build on the trust and loyalty of our more than 106 million Hilton Honors members as they begin to travel again.

我們相信，隨著超過 1.06 億希爾頓榮譽客會會員再次開始旅行，我們可以採取許多措施來增強他們的信任和忠誠度，而該計劃只是第一步。

A full recovery will take time and it could take several years to return to the hotel demand levels we experienced in 2019.

全面復甦需要時間，可能需要幾年時間才能恢復到 2019 年的飯店需求水準。

But as we shift our focus to the future, we are incredibly confident about the long-term prospects of the business and our model, our industry-leading brands, powerful commercial engines and innovative technology platforms should enable us to continue delivering incremental value to guests, owners and shareholders for years to come.

但隨著我們將重點轉向未來，我們對業務和模式的長期前景充滿信心，我們行業領先的品牌、強大的商業引擎和創新技術平台將使我們能夠繼續為客人提供增量價值、所有者和股東在未來幾年。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Kevin for details on the first quarter.

這樣，我會將電話轉給凱文，以了解第一季的詳細資訊。

Thanks, Chris, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝克里斯，大家早安。

In the quarter, system-wide RevPAR declined 23% versus the prior year on a comparable and currency-neutral basis.

在可比較和貨幣中性的基礎上，本季全系統的 RevPAR 比前一年下降了 23%。

RevPAR is down across all regions with the weakest results in Asia Pacific.

所有地區的 RevPAR 均有所下降，其中亞太地區表現最差。

Decreases were primarily driven by occupancy declines with rate pressure from our lower-rated business further impacting results.

下降的主要原因是入住率下降，而評級較低的業務帶來的利率壓力進一步影響了業績。

Adjusted EBITDA was $363 million in the first quarter, declining 27% year-over-year.

第一季調整後 EBITDA 為 3.63 億美元，年減 27%。

Results reflect significant reductions in travel demand and the temporary suspension of operations in a number of hotels across the world.

結果反映出旅遊需求大幅減少以及世界各地許多飯店暫時停止營運。

While the decline was somewhat mitigated by greater cost control, more significant measures were largely implemented after quarter end.

儘管加強成本控制在一定程度上緩解了下降趨勢，但更重要的措施主要在季度末後實施。

Management and franchise fees decreased 18% to $422 million, driven by RevPAR declines and roughly flat license fees.

由於每間可用客房收入下降和許可費基本持平，管理費和特許經營費下降了 18%，至 4.22 億美元。

Given the extremely challenging operating environment, which included the suspension of operations at 35 of our leased hotels during the quarter, our ownership segment posted a loss due to higher levels of operating leverage and fixed rent structures at some of our leased properties.

鑑於極具挑戰性的營運環境，包括本季 35 家租賃飯店暫停運營，我們的所有權部門因營運槓桿水平較高和部分租賃物業的固定租金結構而出現虧損。

Diluted earnings per share, adjusted for special items, was $0.74.

經特殊項目調整後的稀釋每股收益為 0.74 美元。

During the quarter, we opened nearly 9,000 rooms, meaningfully lower than prior expectations due to postponed openings driven by COVID-19.

本季度，我們開設了近 9,000 間客房，由於 COVID-19 導致開業推遲，明顯低於先前的預期。

Approvals and construction starts increased ahead of our expectations, largely due to the signing of our largest development deal to date, an agreement with Resorts World for a 3,500-room tri-branded hotel resort on the Las Vegas strip.

批准和開工數量的增加超出了我們的預期，這主要是由於我們簽署了迄今為止最大的開發協議，即與名勝世界簽署的在拉斯維加斯大道建造一座擁有3,500 間客房的三品牌酒店度假村的協議。

Much like the rest of our business, development activity for the balance of the year will depend on a number of factors.

就像我們的其他業務一樣，今年剩餘時間的開發活動將取決於許多因素。

However, we do expect that our ultimate rate of net unit growth for the year will be significantly lower than our pre-crisis expectations, likely around half the rate or a bit better.

然而，我們確實預計今年的最終淨單位成長率將顯著低於我們危機前的預期，可能約為成長率的一半或略好一些。

Turning to liquidity.

轉向流動性。

As Chris mentioned earlier, we have taken a number of actions to enhance our position and increase our financial flexibility, including executing on the bond transaction that Chris referenced earlier.

正如克里斯之前提到的，我們已經採取了一系列行動來增強我們的地位並提高我們的財務靈活性，包括執行克里斯之前提到的債券交易。

We were very pleased with the outcome of that transaction through which we issued 2 $500 million tranches of senior notes at pricing that was very attractive relative to other transactions executed in the same time frame.

我們對該交易的結果感到非常滿意，我們透過該交易發行了 2 批 5 億美元的優先票據，其定價相對於同一時間範圍內執行的其他交易非常有吸引力。

At the time, it also marked the first 8-year high-yield financing done since the crisis, which allowed us to continue to enhance our maturity schedule.

當時，這也標誌著自危機以來完成的首筆8年期高收益融資，這使我們能夠繼續加強我們的到期計劃。

We continue to have no debt maturities prior to 2024 and a well-staggered maturity ladder thereafter.

2024 年之前我們仍然沒有債務到期日，此後的到期階梯則錯開。

Factoring for the senior note issuance as well as the $1 billion Hilton Honors points presale, we ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $3.8 billion on a pro forma basis, which we think should provide us with ample liquidity to navigate the current environment and prepare for recovery.

考慮到高級票據發行以及10 億美元的希爾頓榮譽客會積分預售，我們在本季末的預計現金和現金等價物為38 億美元，我們認為這將為我們提供充足的流動性來應對當前的環境和為復健做好準備。

Further details on our first quarter can be found in the earnings release we issued earlier this morning.

有關我們第一季的更多詳細信息，請參閱我們今天早上發布的收益報告。

This completes our prepared remarks.

我們準備好的演講到此結束。

We would now like to open the line for any questions you may have.

我們現在願意為您解答任何問題。

Jamie, can we have our first question, please.

傑米，我們可以問第一個問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions) And our first question today comes from Joe Greff from JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）今天我們的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Joe Greff。

Chris, Kevin and Jill.

克里斯、凱文和吉爾。

I was hoping to get a better understanding of your operating sensitivities in this environment.

我希望能夠更了解您在這種環境下的操作敏感度。

And as we kind of look at these, unbelievable to me to be talking about the magnitude of this RevPAR decline, but given these pretty steep RevPAR declines, how do you see the relationship to base and franchise fees?

當我們看到這些時，我對談論 RevPAR 下降的幅度感到難以置信，但考慮到 RevPAR 下降幅度相當大，您如何看待與基本費和特許經營費的關係？

How do you see that relationship?

您如何看待這種關係？

Which I can guess on the incentive management fee side.

我可以在激勵管理費方面猜測這一點。

How are you thinking about your run rate G&A from here?

您如何看待這裡的運行率 G&A？

And if you give us some sort of -- some points on understanding the components of your monthly cash burn, I think that would be helpful to us.

如果您向我們提供一些關於了解每月現金消耗的組成部分的要點，我認為這會對我們有所幫助。

Wow, that's about 20 questions in there, Joe.

哇，喬，裡面大約有 20 個問題。

Good job.

好工作。

Don't ask me to repeat it.

不要讓我重複一遍。

I can't remember all the questions.

我記不清所有的問題了。

Yes.

是的。

I can't either.

我也不能。

So I'll take some of it.

所以我會拿一些。

[Some of the old models?]

[一些舊型號？

Yes.

是的。

We can't -- as we said, we're not giving guidance.

我們不能——正如我們所說，我們不會提供指導。

So we'll answer what we can.

所以我們會盡力回答。

But happy to talk about the sensitivities at a high level.

但很高興在高層討論敏感問題。

I would say, as we look at the -- what I think would be helpful as sort of RevPAR to EBITDA relationship, the way I would think about it in terms of sensitivities, and there's thousands of assumptions as you would guess that go into this, is if you had RevPAR declines, and we're not giving guidance, so we're not going to suggest what we think they are for the year, and you guys have views, I would say the model is such that up to around 30% RevPAR declines if the whole company RevPAR to EBITDA is a bit better than 1:1.

我想說的是，當我們審視 RevPAR 與 EBITDA 的關係時，我認為這會有所幫助，我會從敏感性角度考慮它，並且您可能會猜到其中有數千種假設，如果您的RevPAR下降了，而我們沒有提供指導，所以我們不會提出我們對今年的看法，你們有意見，我想說這個模型是這樣的，最多大約如果整個公司的RevPAR 與EBITDA 的比例略高於1:1 ，則RevPAR 會下降30%。

And when it goes over 30, it's a bit worse than 1:1, but not materially so.

當它超過 30 時，會比 1:1 差一點，但也不是很嚴重。

The base fee business throughout that continuum is better than 1:1.

整個連續體的基本費用業務優於 1:1。

And what obviously hurts as the higher you go is a certain level of negative operating leverage, because no matter how much you cut corporate costs, which we've done a lot of, there's a limit to how far you can go and keep the system going.

隨著你的水平越高，顯然會受到一定程度的負營運槓桿的傷害，因為無論你削減多少企業成本（我們已經做了很多），你能走多遠並保持系統的程度都是有限的。去。

And then the real estate, the lower the RevPAR is, given that these are leased assets with some degree of fixed rent structure, that creates a tailwind.

然後是房地產，考慮到這些是具有一定程度固定租金結構的租賃資產，RevPAR 越低，就會產生順風。

But again, that's a very small part of the business overall and has been.

但同樣，這只是整個業務的一小部分，而且一直都是如此。

So it keeps us even -- I've seen the industry sort of numbers, I've seen from a bunch of folks, I think including you were sort of minus 50 for the year.

所以它讓我們保持平衡——我看到了行業中的一些數字，我看到了很多人的數字，我想包括你們在內，今年的數字是-50。

It's sort of funny to hear myself say that, but I've been doing this for 35-plus years, but if that's what the industry thinks, I think, as I said, we -- our ratio EBITDA -- overall ratio would be a little bit -- a touch above 1:1.

聽到自己這麼說有點有趣，但我已經這樣做了 35 年多了，但如果這就是行業的想法，我認為，正如我所說，我們的 EBITDA 比率——總體比率將是一點點——略高於1:1。

The base fee business would be better, even at those levels.

即使在這樣的水平上，基本費用業務也會更好。

On G&A, sort of the G&A as we see it on a GAAP basis, I think given the mitigation that we have done with an assumption that as you get into the third and fourth quarter, you will have some sort of -- you will start to see recovery.

在一般管理費用方面，就像我們在公認會計原則基礎上看到的一般管理費用一樣，我認為考慮到我們所做的緩解措施，假設進入第三和第四季度，您將開始看看恢復情況。

I mean the truth is, while it's slow, we're starting to see it now.

我的意思是，事實是，雖然進展緩慢，但我們現在已經開始看到它了。

We've gone from 13% to 23% already.

我們已經從 13% 上升到 23%。

Not a lot to be thankful for, but we do believe once you get through the epicenter of the crisis, which it feels like from a health point of view we are, and you get into reopening parts of the world that haven't reopened, including the United States, you'll start to improve in the third and fourth quarter.

沒什麼值得慶幸的，但我們確實相信，一旦度過了危機的震中（從健康的角度來看，我們就是這樣），並且開始重新開放世界上尚未重新開放的地區，包括美國在內，你將在第三和第四季開始有所改善。

I think when you net all that out, probably G&A is 25% to 30% lower.

我認為當你把所有這些都扣除後，G&A 可能會降低 25% 到 30%。

Remembering, for us, and it's a point worth making, our G&A for the last 3 years has basically been flat.

請記住，對我們來說，這是值得一提的一點，過去 3 年我們的一般行政費用基本上持平。

We are, we believe, always very disciplined about our G&A.

我們相信，我們對一般管理費用始終非常嚴格。

And coming into the year, we were actually guiding before pre-COVID-19 to a modest decline in G&A.

進入今年，我們實際上在 COVID-19 之前就指導 G＆A 略有下降。

Obviously, that decline, given the mitigation that we have gone through to sort of rightsize the business for the operating environment will be much greater than what we would have suggested pre-COVID-19, but sort of in the ranges that I talked about.

顯然，考慮到我們為適應營運環境而調整業務規模所採取的緩解措施，這種下降將比我們在 COVID-19 之前建議的要大得多，但在我談到的範圍內。

On cash burn, and we have already, as part of the bond deal and otherwise, put out public information on that.

關於現金消耗，作為債券交易和其他方面的一部分，我們已經發布了相關的公開資訊。

I think the way to think about it is in the environment we're sort of in, in the second quarter, which I said I don't believe we will maintain that level of performance, I think the third quarter will be the worst of it, even at those levels that are sort of circa 80% to 90% off.

我認為思考這個問題的方法是在我們所處的環境中，在第二季度，我說過我不相信我們會保持這種表現水平，我認為第三季度將是最糟糕的即使在大約80%到90% 的折扣水準上。

We think we have at least 24 months of liquidity.

我們認為我們至少有 24 個月的流動性。

And if you take sort of industry -- the industry view that I'm saying broadly that I discussed earlier, actually at that level of performance, we are better than cash flow positive.

如果你採取某種行業——我之前討論過的廣泛的行業觀點，實際上在這種績效水平上，我們比現金流為正要好。

So that hopefully gives you sort of a bit of a range, again recognizing we're not giving specific guidance, but just trying to give you general trajectory.

因此，希望這能為您提供一些範圍，再次認識到我們沒有提供具體指導，而只是試圖為您提供整體軌跡。

Kevin, what did I miss out of his laundry list?

凱文，我在他的洗衣清單上漏掉了什麼？

I think you covered most of it.

我想你已經涵蓋了大部分內容。

I think, overall, embedded in that cash burn, those cash burn guidances is obviously an assumption of pretty extensive mitigation on our gross controllable expenses outside of G&A.

我認為，總的來說，在現金消耗中，這些現金消耗指導顯然是對我們在一般管理費用之外的總可控支出進行相當廣泛的緩解的假設。

And I'd say, on an overall basis, we think we can, over the course of the year, mitigate about 60% of the gross controllable expenses, but that's all embedded in, in the cash burn assumption.

我想說，總體而言，我們認為我們可以在這一年中減少約 60% 的總可控支出，但這一切都包含在現金消耗假設中。

And I think you actually said the third quarter was going to be the worst, but we think the second quarter --

我認為你實際上說過第三季度將是最糟糕的，但我們認為第二季度 -

Second quarter.

第二季。

I did say that.

我確實這麼說過。

Yes, second quarter.

是的，第二季。

I've already skipped a quarter.

我已經跳過四分之一了。

Yes.

是的。

Second quarter, third and fourth quarter recovery to a degree, yes.

是的，第二季、第三和第四季出現一定程度的復甦。

Our next question comes from Carlo Santarelli from Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的卡洛桑塔雷利。

Thank you very much for your prepared remarks and, obviously, the color you just provided.

非常感謝您準備好的評論，當然還有您剛剛提供的顏色。

Kevin, acknowledging that you mentioned kind of NUG half of the 6 to 7 you were prior -- you were previously looking for, for this year.

凱文，承認您提到了今年您之前尋找的 6 到 7 種 NUG 一半。

How much of that, call it, 300 to 350 basis points of NUG erosion for this year relates to just delays in the pipeline that we will see come through presumably next year?

今年 NUG 侵蝕 300 至 350 個基點，其中有多少與我們預計明年會出現的管線延誤有關？

And how much of that is just stuff that maybe was early and has a lower likelihood at this point of getting finished?

其中有多少可能是早期完成的事情，目前完成的可能性較低？

So more or less, even if you wanted to take a bigger picture approach, when you think about the opportunities for conversions and whatnot, looking out to '21, '22, '23, et cetera, are you still reasonably comfortable in kind of a mid-single-digit net unit growth baseline for those years?

因此，或多或少，即使您想採取更宏觀的方法，當您考慮轉換機會等時，展望“21”、“22”、“23”等，您是否仍然對某種程度感到滿意？的淨單位成長基線是中個位數嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So here's what I would say, Carlo, and obviously a good question.

這就是我要說的，卡洛，這顯然是一個很好的問題。

Virtually, all of the decline in our outlook for NUG for this year is due to delays related to COVID-19.

事實上，我們對今年 NUG 前景的所有下調都是由於與 COVID-19 相關的延誤。

Meaning, we do have in our guidance is always an embedded assumption for conversions.

這意味著，我們的指導中確實始終包含轉換的嵌入假設。

And I'll come back to that; I know that's part of your question.

我會回到這一點；我知道這是你問題的一部分。

But the decline is really entirely related to delays, because going into the year, even for a limited-service hotel, if something is expected to open this year, it's going to be under construction this year, right?

但這種下降實際上完全與延誤有關，因為進入今年，即使是一家提供有限服務的酒店，如果預計今年開業，那麼今年就會在建設中，對嗎？

So as of -- about 1/3 of the hotels that we had under construction that we expected to open this year went into some form of suspension as -- over the last month or so as part of the crisis.

因此，截至上個月左右，作為危機的一部分，我們預計今年開業的在建酒店中約有 1/3 進入某種形式的停業。

About half of those that went under suspension are already back under construction, but they're going to be somewhat delayed, right, obviously, because they suspended.

大約一半被暫停的建築物已經恢復建設，但顯然它們會延遲，因為它們被暫停了。

And about half of them, the other half, we think will resume construction, largely every project we think will resume construction over the balance of the year.

其中大約一半，另一半，我們認為將恢復建設，基本上我們認為每個項目都將在今年剩餘時間內恢復建設。

There certainly will be onesies, twosies of things where a deal might not make sense, but generally, once the hotel starts construction, it opens, right?

當然會有一些連身衣、兩件套的事情，交易可能沒有意義，但一般來說，一旦酒店開始建設，它就會開業，對嗎？

And so what that means is almost all of it will push into next year.

這意味著幾乎所有的工作都將推遲到明年。

So as a result, we think that whatever this year ends up being will be the bottom and that we'll climb back from there.

因此，我們認為無論今年的結果如何，都將是底部，我們將從那裡爬回來。

And yes, on a run rate basis, once we get back to normal, we're more than comfortable with a mid-single-digit NUG growth rate.

是的，在運行率的基礎上，一旦我們恢復正常，我們對中個位數的 NUG 成長率感到非常滿意。

And we think that conversions, there'll be some period of time where, obviously, at the moment -- although we are working on some conversions, as we speak, we're working on a bunch of them actually, but at the moment, transaction activity is relatively limited.

我們認為，顯然，在一段時間內，目前我們正在進行一些轉換，正如我們所說，我們實際上正在研究其中的一些轉換，但目前，交易活動相對有限。

But in general, we think the crisis will probably create more opportunities than it hurts.

但總的來說，我們認為這場危機可能會創造更多的機會，而不是帶來的傷害。

And so hopefully, that covers (inaudible) --

希望這涵蓋了（聽不清楚）——

Yes, that's it, Kevin.

是的，就是這樣，凱文。

And then, guys, if I could, just one quick follow-up.

然後，夥計們，如果可以的話，請快速跟進。

When you guys think about the financial crisis and the resumption, obviously it was a different circumstances and whatnot, but speaking specifically to the group elements of the business, when you think about the recovery in that era on the group side relative to now and based on obviously, the positive traction you guys have had with rebookings and some sales progress on future periods, et cetera, what are you hearing?

當你們想到金融危機和復原時，顯然這是一個不同的情況等等，但具體來說是業務的集團要素，當你考慮那個時代集團方面相對於現在的復甦時，基於顯然，你們在重新預訂和未來時期的一些銷售進展等方面取得了積極的進展，你們聽到了什麼？

Or what do you view as being kind of the key differentiators between that group recovery and getting kind of adequate pricing back on the books, et cetera, in this period relative to that period?

或者，您認為這段時期相對於該時期的集團復甦和帳面定價等方面的關鍵差異是什麼？

There are going to be a lot of similarities, Carlo, and then some differences, as you might guess.

正如你可能猜到的那樣，卡洛，會有很多相似之處，但也會有一些差異。

I mean I think the economic fallout, we'll see.

我的意思是，我認為經濟影響，我們拭目以待。

I mean I think the economic fallout here is likely to be greater.

我的意思是，我認為這裡的經濟影響可能會更大。

And then you put on top of that a mobility issue and a health and hygiene issue, which is people not wanting to -- for a period of time until maybe there's a vaccine or therapeutics or we get past this, not wanting to congregate in large groups.

然後你把流動性問題和健康和衛生問題放在首位，這是人們不願意的——在一段時間內，直到可能有疫苗或治療方法，或者我們克服了這個問題，不想大規模聚集組。

So I think being pragmatic about it and just straightforward about it, I think group always is the last to recover.

所以我認為，務實、直截了當，我認為團隊總是最後恢復的。

In the 30, whatever years I've been doing this and going through these ups and downs, group is the last to recovers for no other reason that it's longer lead business, right?

在這 30 年間，無論我從事這行多少年，經歷過這些起起落落，集團都是最後一個復甦的，沒有其他原因，因為它不再是領先業務，對吧？

So it's sort of logical.

所以這是合乎邏輯的。

I think here, it will be a little longer than normal because of those factors.

我認為由於這些因素，這裡的時間會比正常情況長一些。

I think the economic impact is going to be greater than most of what we've seen in my time.

我認為其對經濟的影響將比我們這個時代所看到的大多數影響都要大。

And we have to get -- people are going to have to sort of not only just come out of their foxholes, but ultimately get comfortable congregating again.

我們必須——人們不僅要走出散兵坑，而且最終要重新舒適地聚集在一起。

All of that, I think, will happen.

我認為這一切都會發生。

By the way, I think the business when you get 2 or 3 years out will look a lot more like it did 90 days ago than it looks right now.

順便說一句，我認為 2 或 3 年後的業務看起來會比現在更像 90 天前。

I think it will look very, very similar to it.

我認為它看起來會非常非常相似。

But I think it's going to take time and progression.

但我認為這需要時間和進展。

It's going to depend on what happens with reopening.

這將取決於重新開放後會發生什麼。

It's going to depend on what happens with how we fight COVID-19.

這將取決於我們如何對抗 COVID-19。

It's going to depend on things that are unknowns today, which is where we end up with vaccines and therapeutics.

這將取決於今天未知的事情，這就是我們最終獲得疫苗和治療方法的地方。

I'm super optimistic based on the people I'm talking to about those things, but I'm not a health expert, and I'm not in the pharma business, and I don't know.

根據與我談論這些事情的人，我非常樂觀，但我不是健康專家，也不從事製藥行業，我不知道。

But those things are all sort of variables that it's just too early to judge.

但這些都是變數，現在判斷還太早。

So the simple answer would be, I think, what the contours of this recovery, like prior recoveries, to a degree, with a little bit of nuance will be leisure transient first, business transient second and group third.

因此，我認為，簡單的答案是，這次復甦的輪廓，就像之前的復甦一樣，在某種程度上，有一點細微差別，首先是休閒短暫，其次是商務短暫，第三是群體。

I think they're all going to be a little bit different in contour than prior cycles for obvious reasons of the impact of COVID-19 being different in terms of the impact that it has on people and business.

我認為它們在輪廓上都將與先前的周期略有不同，原因很明顯，即 COVID-19 對人們和企業的影響有所不同。

But I think that is the progression.

但我認為這就是進步。

And while you didn't ask it, I'll say it, I do think as we get in correcting -- thank you for correcting me, Kevin.

雖然你沒有問，但我會說，當我們糾正時，我確實認為——謝謝你糾正我，凱文。

I do think Q2 is going to be very bad because we know that.

我確實認為第二季度會非常糟糕，因為我們知道這一點。

I do think you will start, as you get reopenings around the world and in Americas moving again, if the government and federal government and state governments are responsible, I've been on the council for reopening and so I think there's a sensible dialogue going on there, you will start to see a recovery as you get into Q3, in my opinion in Q4, I think that the initial stages of that, just given how very low Q2 is, will look like a pretty decent snapback.

我確實認為，當世界各地和美洲重新開放時，如果政府、聯邦政府和州政府負起責任，我確實會開始，我一直是重新開放委員會的成員，所以我認為正在進行明智的對話在那裡，當你進入第三季度時，你會開始看到復甦，在我看來，在第四季度，我認為，考慮到第二季度的水平非常低，我認為復甦的初始階段看起來會是一個相當不錯的反彈。

But trying to -- but I don't want to be pollyannaish.

但我正在努力——但我不想盲目樂觀。

Getting back to sort of the levels of occupancy.

回到入住率的排序。

Like for us, that we're in the low to low, mid-70s in 2019 which were all-time high, that's going to take time.

就像我們一樣，2019 年我們正處於從低到低的 70 年代中期，這是歷史最高點，這需要時間。

I think you will see the down.

我想你會看到下面的。

You'll see a bit of a snapback as you get mobility off of very low levels.

當你從非常低的水平獲得機動性時，你會看到一點回彈。

And then I think you're going to sort of slowly recover as people get more comfort and businesses start to get back in business, start to think about hiring and investing and all those fun things.

然後我認為，隨著人們變得更加舒適，企業開始恢復營業，開始考慮招聘和投資以及所有這些有趣的事情，你會慢慢恢復。

And that, as I said in my prepared comments, that's going to take 2 or 3 years to get back, in my opinion, to those levels.

正如我在準備好的評論中所說，我認為需要兩三年的時間才能恢復到這些水平。

And that's my honest view.

這就是我的誠實觀點。

The truth is this thing is moving really fast.

事實上，這件事進展得非常快。

So -- and there are a lot of unknowns, as I just said.

所以——正如我剛才所說，還有很多未知數。

So that's my view based on what I see, and I've seen a lot and talked to a lot of people.

這就是我的觀點，基於我所看到的，我見過很多，也和很多人交談過。

But time will tell, which is exactly why we haven't given guidance because it's just too early to know.

但時間會證明一切，這正是我們沒有給出指導的原因，因為現在知道還為時過早。

But everybody on this call knows I'm a born optimist, and that will never change.

但參加這次電話會議的每個人都知道我是一個天生的樂觀主義者，這一點永遠不會改變。

So I feel spectacularly good about the long term for the industry.

因此，我對該行業的長期發展感到非常滿意。

I feel spectacularly good about our model and the long-term opportunities for Hilton.

我對我們的模式以及希爾頓的長期機會感到非常滿意。

And we just sort of have to go through a period of time to rebuild and get back on our feet as an industry and a company to get back to where we were.

我們只是需要經歷一段時間來重建並重新站穩腳跟，作為一個行業和一家公司才能回到原來的狀態。

And our next question comes from Harry Curtis from Instinet.

我們的下一個問題來自 Instinet 的 Harry Curtis。

Chris, given your vast experience through prior recessions, let's go back to 2008 and '09, where there was a significant amount of handwringing about the impact of video conferencing on corporate travel, and it didn't really pan out.

克里斯，考慮到您在先前的經濟衰退中的豐富經驗，讓我們回到 2008 年和 09 年，當時人們對視訊會議對商務旅行的影響感到非常沮喪，但它並沒有真正成功。

Do you think it pans out in the recovery?

您認為復甦會成功嗎？

And I know it's anybody's guess, but is it different this time, do you think?

我知道這是任何人的猜測，但你認為這次會有所不同嗎？

Yes, it's any -- I mean it's anybody's guess.

是的，這是任何——我的意思是這是任何人的猜測。

I mean certainly, I have done more Webex meetings and Zoom than I ever want to do in my life.

我的意思當然是，我參加的 Webex 會議和 Zoom 比我一生中想做的還要多。

I don't know about all of you.

我不知道你們所有人的情況。

Maybe it's I'm now an old curmudgeon.

也許我現在是個脾氣暴躁的老傢伙了。

I'm tired of it.

我厭倦了。

The last thing I'm going to want to do when I get done with this is do another video conference.

當我完成這件事後，我最不想做的就是再開一次視訊會議。

And I'm, by the way, hearing that from a lot of people.

順便說一句，我從很多人那裡聽到了這樣的說法。

So the honest answer is I don't know.

所以誠實的答案是我不知道。

I would say, on the margin, yes, there's going to be certain trip occasions where maybe because people have become more accustomed to this out of necessity to sort of be able to function that they'll think, well, I can do that, I don't have to -- I don't have to do a trip.

我想說，在邊際上，是的，在某些旅行場合，也許是因為人們已經變得更加習慣這種情況，出於某種需要，他們會認為，好吧，我可以做到這一點，我不需要—我不需要去旅行。

But I think much like the debate that I've been part of for the last 20 or 30 years as this has evolved, I think it is an unstoppable force that people want to travel and see each other and need to, to build relationships, whether that is personal or related to business.

但我認為，就像過去 20 或 30 年我一直參與的辯論一樣，隨著這一問題的發展，我認為這是一股不可阻擋的力量，人們想要旅行、見面，需要建立關係，無論是個人的還是與商業有關的。

I don't think that will change.

我認為這不會改變。

I don't think globalization is going to stop.

我不認為全球化會停止。

I don't think the need for people to travel the world is going to stop.

我認為人們環遊世界的需求不會停止。

And I am highly confident we can all wake up in 2 or 3 years, and you can tell me I was right or wrong.

我非常有信心我們都能在兩三年內醒來，你可以告訴我我是對還是錯。

But I'm highly confident, as I said, when you wake up at 2 or 3 years, the world is going to -- it's hard to see it now.

但我非常有信心，正如我所說，當你兩三年後醒來時，世界將會——現在很難看到這一點。

The world is going to look an awful lot like it did 90 days ago in terms of customer behavior and demand patterns and the like.

從客戶行為和需求模式等方面來看，世界將與 90 天前非常相似。

There will be some differences.

會有一些差異。

As I said, maybe on the margin, there's some business transient where people do it, but I think they're going to want to see people.

正如我所說，也許在邊緣，人們會做一些生意短暫的事情，但我認為他們會想見人。

There are going to be other things that happened that changed, but it's going to be things, I think, that we're sort of forming where it will accelerate other things like our digital key -- digital check-in, which we've had great adoption, I think we'll have massive adoption.

還會有其他事情發生改變，但我認為，我們正在形成的東西將加速其他事情，例如我們的數字鑰匙——數字登記，我們已經這樣做了。大規模的採用。

Connected room, where you rent a room, you don't have to mess with the remote control or touch switches, I think people will sort of adopt those things.

連通房間，你租一個房間，你不必弄亂遙控器或觸摸開關，我認為人們會採用這些東西。

So I think the digital world was already very important to us.

所以我認為數位世界對我們來說已經非常重要了。

I think it's going to get more important because some of those trends are going to be accelerated.

我認為這將變得更加重要，因為其中一些趨勢將會加速。

But I do not -- I wake up at night thinking about a lot of things these days.

但我不——這些天我晚上醒來思考很多事情。

I do sleep, but I get up awfully early, as I told Kevin.

我確實睡覺，但我起得很早，正如我告訴凱文的那樣。

But I do not worry that people are not going to want to see each other, meet with each other and ultimately congregate.

但我並不擔心人們不願意見面、見面並最終聚集在一起。

I think that is the human condition.

我認為這就是人類的處境。

And I think there is an argument that on the margin, I described, it could take some (inaudible).

我認為有一種觀點認為，正如我所描述的，這可能需要一些時間（聽不清楚）。

There's also, I think, an even better argument that people are going to want to see people more than ever.

我認為，還有一個更好的論點，就是人們將比以往任何時候都更想見到別人。

They just need to feel safe, right?

他們只需要感到安全，對吧？

And I think when they feel safe, they will go back largely to their own patterns and behaviors.

我認為當他們感到安全時，他們會在很大程度上回歸到自己的模式和行為。

Looking at the great -- looking at prior activities, I think 9/11 is probably the most instructive.

回顧過去的偉大活動，我認為 9/11 可能是最具啟發性的。

While it's not the same because none of this -- this is unprecedented, as we keep saying, there are some lessons that were learned there.

雖然情況不一樣，因為這一切都是史無前例的，正如我們一直在說的，但我們從中學到了一些教訓。

Like basically, everybody said, well, after 9/11, nobody traveled.

基本上，每個人都說，9/11 之後，沒有人旅行。

The video conferencing wasn't as good, but they figured out other ways to do things because they were afraid to get on planes and travel and go out.

視訊會議不太好，但他們想出了其他方法來做事，因為他們害怕坐飛機、旅行和外出。

You fast forward it 2 or 3 years, we had figured out how to manage the world and figured out how to not get rid of terrorism, but manage it, and people went back largely to their prior behaviors -- it did accelerate a few things that were not -- frankly, I would argue harmful, that were probably helpful.

你快進兩三年，我們已經弄清楚瞭如何管理世界，並弄清楚瞭如何不消除恐怖主義，而是管理它，人們很大程度上回到了以前的行為——它確實加速了一些事情坦率地說，我認為這不是有害的，而是可能有幫助的。

I think the same thing is going to happen here.

我認為同樣的事情也會在這裡發生。

I think as we get through this and we realize that COVID-19 and these types of viruses are part of our future, they have been, we have dealt with the seasonal flu; there was a time where the -- dealing with the seasonal flu felt like this, that we will figure out as a global community how to deal with this.

我認為，當我們度過這一難關時，我們意識到 COVID-19 和這些類型的病毒是我們未來的一部分，我們已經應對了季節性流感；曾經有一段時間，處理季節性流感的感覺就像這樣，我們將作為一個全球社會找出如何應對這個問題。

We will hopefully have a vaccine.

我們希望能有疫苗。

Time will tell.

時間會證明一切。

We will certainly have more therapeutics.

我們肯定會有更多的治療方法。

We will certainly have better practices and procedures to make sure that we protect the very small part of the global population that is really, truly most impacted by this.

我們肯定會有更好的做法和程序，以確保我們保護全球人口中真正受此影響最嚴重的極小部分。

And I think as people then start to feel like this is a safe environment, they are going to go back largely to their old behaviors.

我認為，當人們開始覺得這是一個安全的環境時，他們將在很大程度上恢復原來的行為。

I would bet a lot of money on it.

我願意為此賭很多錢。

And that's what history would tell you.

這就是歷史會告訴你的。

I appreciate that.

我很感激。

And as a quick follow-up, what are your peers in the airline industry telling you about the pace of their restart?

作為快速跟進，您的航空業同行對重啟的步伐有何看法？

I would say, I haven't talked to a lot of my peers, but looking at the data, to be honest, at least in the last couple of weeks, in these days, it's like every week makes a difference.

我想說，我沒有和很多同行交談過，但說實話，至少在過去幾週，在這些天裡，從數據來看，似乎每週都會有所不同。

But based on the conversations I have had over the last couple -- over the last month or 2, and then just looking at the data, I think, well, we're not -- it's -- let's be clear, we're not showing robust recovery trends right now.

但根據我過去幾個月的談話——過去一兩個月，然後看看數據，我認為，好吧，我們不是——而是——讓我們明確一點，我們是目前尚未顯示出強勁的複蘇趨勢。

We're -- I said we are like teeny -- in China, we are.

我們──我說過我們就像個小孩子──在中國，我們是。

But the rest of the world, it's like teeny, tiny steps forward.

但世界其他地方，這就像向前邁出了很小的一步。

I think the airlines are way behind.

我認為航空公司已經落後了。

And if you just look at the passenger mile data, how many in -- they're just way behind.

如果你只看乘客里程數據，你會發現有多少——他們遠遠落後。

And here is the thing, that's because people are -- those that are willing to travel are only willing to go so far from home.

事情是這樣的，那是因為人們──那些願意旅行的人只願意離家這麼遠。

And so as I think about our teams, you didn't ask, but I'll answer because we're spending an immense amount of time on recovery, I spent -- I had all 500 of our commercial leaders around the world on a Zoom call yesterday and talking about how we're retooling our approach to go to market over the next 6, 12, whatever it takes, 18 months, and that is going to be really much more about local business and a lot more in the beginning about drive to business, right?

因此，當我想到我們的團隊時，你沒有問，但我會回答，因為我們在恢復上花費了大量時間，我花了 - 我讓世界各地的所有 500 名商業領袖都在昨天召開Zoom 電話會議，討論我們如何調整我們的方法，以便在接下來的6、12 個月、無論需要什麼、18 個月內進入市場，這將更多地涉及本地業務，並且在開始時會涉及更多內容關於開車去上班，對吧？

So if you think about it, I mean sort of the natural human reaction is like I'm going to -- I want to move, I want to get out, I'm starting to feel safe, I'm going to get out of my house, I'm going to go to my neighborhood, maybe I'll sort of move around the region, maybe I'll go to the region next door, eventually I'm going to cross the country, I'm going to get on a plane go around the world, but I think it's in that progression.

所以如果你想一想，我的意思是人類的自然反應就像我要去——我想搬家，我想出去，我開始感到安全，我要出去我要去我家的附近，也許我會在這個地區四處走動，也許我會去隔壁的地區，最終我會穿越這個國家，我要去坐飛機環遊世界，但我認為這是在這個過程中。

And so if you think about it that way, while we've seen a little bit of pickup, I would argue almost all of it has been in drive-to.

因此，如果你這樣想的話，雖然我們看到了一點皮卡，但我認為幾乎所有的皮卡都是開車去的。

And we thankfully we have a big portfolio.

值得慶幸的是，我們擁有龐大的產品組合。

We have a lot of brands, but we have a lot of drive.

我們有很多品牌，但我們有很大的動力。

We have -- in the world, 2,600 or 2,700 Hampton Inns.

我們在全球擁有 2,600 或 2,700 家歡朋酒店。

And we have -- we have thousands, I think, limited-service hotels in the U.S., we have almost 4,000 of them.

我認為，我們在美國有數千家提供有限服務的飯店，其中近 4,000 家。

And they are very well set up for that sort of local street corner type business and drive to business.

他們非常適合當地的街角類型業務和開車上班。

So I think there's a little bit of a disconnect, and there will be for a period of time where I think we will likely show, I think, recovery at a faster pace because we can accommodate types of demand that don't require air travel.

因此，我認為存在一點脫節，並且在一段時間內我認為我們可能會以更快的速度復甦，因為我們可以滿足不需要航空旅行的需求類型。

Ultimately, we need the airlines.

最終，我們需要航空公司。

We need people to get on planes to get to nirvana, which is back to more normal patterns of demand.

我們需要人們乘坐飛機到達天堂，這又回到了更正常的需求模式。

Obviously, that has to happen.

顯然，這是必鬚髮生的。

But in the short term, I think it's going to be a little bit more local, a little bit more drive to.

但從短期來看，我認為它將更加本地化，​​更加驅動力。

And our industry, if you're -- if you can accommodate that business, is going to be ahead of the airlines.

如果你能夠容納這項業務，我們的產業將領先航空公司。

Our next question comes from Shaun Kelley from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的肖恩凱利。

So Chris, I wanted to switch the subject a little bit to kind of the franchisee side of the world here.

克里斯，我想把話題稍微轉向一下特許經營商方面。

Was just wondering if you could give us a little bit more color on how some of those conversations are going with your franchise partners?

只是想知道您是否可以給我們更多關於您與特許經營合作夥伴的一些對話的進展？

If it's possible, and I appreciate it's both early stage and it may be hard to give these numbers, but any sort of sense of magnitude of either asks of how many of your franchisees are looking for any form of fee relief or what that dialogue is kind of looking like right now?

如果可能的話，我很高興現在還處於早期階段，可能很難給出這些數字，但任何一種程度的感覺都要求有多少特許經營商正在尋求任何形式的費用減免，或者對話是什麼看起來像現在嗎？

Sure.

當然。

So this is something I commented on for good reason in my prepared comments because we're spending, as you would guess, a huge amount of time with our franchise and broader ownership community because they are the engine of our growth, and they are our most important partners in business.

因此，我在準備好的評論中對此進行了充分的評論，因為正如您猜想的那樣，我們在我們的特許經營權和更廣泛的所有權社區上花費了大量時間，因為他們是我們增長的引擎，他們是我們的最重要的商業夥伴。

And times are difficult for everybody, but times are more difficult for them given the situation, which is no -- essentially no demand or very little demand, yet even with furloughs and all those things, they still have to pay debt service, they still have to pay for insurance and real estate taxes and utilities and all that fun stuff.

時代對每個人來說都很困難，但考慮到目前的情況，對他們來說更困難，基本上沒有需求或需求很少，但即使有休假和所有這些事情，他們仍然必須償還債務，他們仍然必須支付保險費、房地產稅、水電費以及所有有趣的東西。

So we've had a multi-tiered approach.

所以我們採取了多層次的方法。

I'd say, first and foremost, and I talked about a little bit -- very little bit, we and I have been deeply involved in what's been going on with the federal government, both with the administration and on the hill to try and get liquidity relief for the industry, which is our ownership community and, frankly, trying to get relief for our frontline team members that have been furloughed and not in any way relief for Hilton.

我想說，首先也是最重要的，我談了一點點——非常少一點點，我們和我一直深入參與聯邦政府的事情，包括政府和山上的事情，試圖並為整個行業（即我們的所有權社區）獲得流動性救濟，坦率地說，我們正在努力為我們的一線團隊成員提供救濟，這些團隊成員已經暫時休假，但絕不是為希爾頓提供救濟。

We don't need it, we have not asked for it in any way, shape or form, but we have been pushing really hard with the administration, treasury.

我們不需要它，我們沒有以任何方式、形式或形式要求它，但我們一直在與政府、財政部一起努力推動。

I've had lots of conversations with all the right people, including the President, Secretary Mnuchin, throughout the PPP.

在整個人民黨內，我與所有合適的人進行了許多對話，包括總統、姆努欽部長。

Reality is, I could go on a long time, you don't want me to.

現實是，我可以持續很長時間，但你不希望我這麼做。

PPP is a really good program.

PPP 是一個非常好的計劃。

And we -- Congress and the administration should be given a lot of credit for moving that fast and getting that much money into the system that will help owners and small business folks and ultimately employees keep -- stay on the payroll.

我們——國會和政府應該因為如此迅速的行動並將如此多的資金投入到系統中而受到高度讚揚，這將幫助業主和小企業人士並最終幫助員工保留在工資單上。

Reality is, for our industry, it hasn't been -- just because of the complexity of these ownership structures and the like, it has not been that helpful.

現實情況是，對於我們的行業來說，情況並非如此——只是因為這些所有權結構等的複雜性，它並沒有那麼有幫助。

The second wave, hopefully, is more helpful.

希望第二波更有幫助。

But there is a -- the Fed is getting ready to launch a Main Street Lending Program, which we're working very hard on to make sure that there is more access.

但聯準會正準備推出一項主街貸款計劃，我們正在非常努力地確保有更多的機會。

And so a bunch of our owners, by the way, lots and lots, dozens and dozens have had access to PPP.

順便說一句，我們的許多業主都可以使用 PPP。

We're hoping that a much larger set of them get access to the Main Street Lending Program.

我們希望更多的人能夠參與主街貸款計劃。

And so that is an important part of what we're doing because they need a bridge, right?

所以這是我們正在做的事情的重要組成部分，因為他們需要一座橋樑，對吧？

I mean ultimately, we're also working with the administration on stimulus for the industry when we get to the other side, to get demand going and people reemployed.

我的意思是，最終，當我們到達另一邊時，我們還將與政府合作刺激該行業，以刺激需求並讓人們重新就業。

But right now, our owners need a bridge.

但現在，我們的主人需要一座橋樑。

So we've been working very hard in that regard.

所以我們在這方面一直非常努力。

We also, as I mentioned in my prepared comments, have done tons of things in terms of -- by the way, suspending operations at 950 hotels, we've never done that, right?

正如我在準備好的評論中提到的，我們也做了很多事情——順便說一句，暫停 950 家酒店的運營，我們從來沒有這樣做過，對吧？

In the 100 years we've been around, other than closing a hotel to tear it down or whatever, we've never done that.

在我們存在的 100 年裡，除了關閉一家酒店、將其拆除或其他什麼之外，我們從未這樣做過。

We've suspended massive amounts of our brand standards, operating standards, capital programs and a whole bunch of other things to sort of really take -- give them huge flexibility in how they operate, which I think they have appreciated.

我們已經暫停了大量的品牌標準、營運標準、資本計畫和一大堆其他真正需要採取的措施——為他們的運作方式提供巨大的靈活性，我認為他們對此表示讚賞。

As I also mentioned, one of the most important things that we're doing right now, which I'm spending and our team is spending an immense amount of time on, which I mentioned very lightly is the hotel operating model of the future.

正如我還提到的，我們現在正在做的最重要的事情之一，我和我們的團隊正在花費大量的時間，我輕描淡寫地提到的是未來的飯店營運模式。

We're working with all of our owners, franchisees across every brand, every category to figure out -- we've already done the short term, but intermediate and long term, how do we use this time -- necessity, as I like to say, does become the mother of invention.

我們正在與每個品牌、每個類別的所有所有者、特許經營商合作，以弄清楚——我們已經完成了短期的工作，但中期和長期的工作，我們如何利用這段時間——必要性，正如我喜歡的那樣可以說，確實成為了發明之母。

To think about things that we've been exploring or thinking about -- and that we think makes sense to create more efficiency, what better time to sort of think about our standards and sort of put them all in the bucket and really, really put a bright light on them.

想想我們一直在探索或思考的事情，以及我們認為對創造更高效率有意義的事情，還有什麼更好的時間來思考我們的標準並將它們全部放入桶中並真正真正地投入一道明亮的光照射在他們身上。

And so we're doing that with deep involvement of our owner advisory councils.

因此，我們在業主諮詢委員會的深入參與下做到了這一點。

We kicked this off a couple of weeks ago, and we're in full swing.

我們幾週前就開始了這項工作，目前正在緊鑼密鼓地進行中。

And that's incredibly important work as we, again, get to the other side and hopefully get stimulus from the government, which I think we will, and that we create an opportunity in the intermediate term for them to be able to operate at lower demand levels and still have profitability.

這是非常重要的工作，因為我們再次到達另一邊，希望得到政府的刺激，我認為我們會的，並且我們在中期為他們創造機會，使其能夠在較低的需求水平下運營並且仍然有盈利能力。

And then longer term, as we get back to normal, have even greater levels of profitability than when we went into it.

從長遠來看，當我們恢復正常時，獲利水準會比我們進入時更高。

In terms of fee relief, I would say you wouldn't be surprised to hear that there have been owners that have asked for fee relief.

在費用減免方面，我想說，聽到有業主要求減免費用，你不會感到驚訝。

But not hand over fist.

但不交出拳頭。

And the reality is, I think there's a real simple reason.

事實是，我認為有一個非常簡單的原因。

Our fee structures, as you know, which is different for different players in the industry, all of our fee structures, whether it's the franchise fee or management fee or the system charges, they're all based on a percentage of revenue.

大家知道，我們的收費結構，對於不同的行業參與者來說是不同的，我們所有的收費結構，無論是特許經營費還是管理費或者係統收費，都是基於收入的一個百分比。

So we have given the ultimate fee relief, meaning when you're 90% off, there really aren't many fees because there is not much revenue.

所以我們給予了最終的費用減免，這意味著當你享受 90% 的折扣時，實際上沒有太多費用，因為沒有太多收入。

And so I think most of the owners, everybody would like every bit of help that they can get.

所以我認為大多數業主，每個人都希望獲得他們能得到的每一點幫助。

I think most of the owners that I have talked to sort of understand that the fees have been rightsized with the demand in the business, that they're not at the moment, sadly for us, paying, and sadly for them, they're not paying us a lot of fees in any event, so that we will continue to look at all options with our owner community.

我認為與我交談過的大多數業主都明白，費用已經根據業務需求進行了合理調整，但目前他們沒有，對我們來說可悲的是，支付，對他們來說可悲的是，他們是無論如何，我們不會向我們支付太多費用，因此我們將繼續與業主社區一起考慮所有選擇。

As I said, there is no more important partner and stakeholder that we have.

正如我所說，我們沒有比這更重要的合作夥伴和利害關係人了。

They are the engine of opportunity for us.

他們是我們的機會引擎。

They're investing all the capital they have been.

他們正在投入所有的資本。

And I believe they will, as Kevin noted, with the pipeline and NUG numbers, they will continue to do so.

我相信，正如 Kevin 所指出的那樣，隨著管道和 NUG 數量的增加，他們將繼續這樣做。

And so we are literally and personally, I'm in daily conversations with huge numbers of them.

因此，從字面上和個人角度來看，我每天都在與他們中的許多人進行對話。

And I think you can ask them yourself.

我想你可以自己問他們。

And while we're never going to be perfect, so far, the feedback I get from our owner community, and you can validate it, is very high marks, that we were there earlier than most, understanding the severity of this, we took very decisive and bold actions to provide relief early.

雖然我們永遠不會完美，但到目前為止，我從我們的業主社區得到的反饋（你可以驗證它）是非常高的分數，我們比大多數人更早到達那裡，了解這個問題的嚴重性，我們採取了非常果斷和大膽的行動，儘早提供救援。

And again, while we're not perfect, my impression in the owners I'm talking to, and I'm talking to hundreds of them, is while they're hurting, they are certainly appreciating the partnership that we have provided.

再說一次，雖然我們並不完美，但我對正在與我交談的業主以及我正在與數百名業主交談的印像是，當他們受到傷害時，他們肯定會感謝我們提供的合作夥伴關係。

Great.

偉大的。

And then maybe a little bit more of a specific one for Kevin, I guess.

我想，對凱文來說，也許還有更多的具體內容。

Kevin, could you outline for us a little bit more on maybe just this kind of point in time working capital drag that we could potentially see as it relates to mismatching on reimbursed cost.

凱文，您能否為我們詳細介紹一下這種時間點的營運資金拖累，我們可能會看到這種拖累，因為它與報銷成本的不匹配有關。

Primarily, I think it's the system fund, but anything else that maybe investors should be aware of, just given the situation we're in when the music stops and drops as much as it is, kind of where cash can be trapped for a period of time?

主要是，我認為這是系統基金，但考慮到我們所處的情況，當音樂停止並下降時，現金可能會被困一段時間，因此投資者可能應該注意其他任何事情？

And then how you expect to recover that down the road?

那麼您預計如何在未來恢復這一點？

Yes, sure.

是的，當然。

Obviously, it's a question that's on a lot of people's minds, so it's a good one.

顯然，這是很多人都關心的問題，所以這是一個很好的問題。

I think to take a step back, if you think about it's -- there's really 3 buckets of receivables that we have, right?

我想退一步來說，如果你想一想，我們確實有 3 桶應收帳款，對嗎？

In hotels that we manage, which is a minority of the system, right, roughly 70% of the system is franchised.

在我們管理的酒店中，這只是系統中的一小部分，對吧，系統中大約 70% 是特許經營的。

But in hotels that we manage, the owners are responsible for the working capital and all the obligations.

但在我們管理的飯店中，業主負責營運資金和所有義務。

And some of those ultimately are paid by us and then reimbursed by owners.

其中一些最終由我們支付，然後由業主償還。

So there's an opportunity there.

所以那裡有一個機會。

Then you have license fees and then system charges, as Chris mentioned in his buildup.

然後你需要支付許可費和系統費用，正如克里斯在他的積累中提到的那樣。

So those are the 3 primary buckets.

這就是 3 個主要的桶子。

What I would say in terms of sizing it, first of all, it's really early, right?

我想說的是，就規模而言，首先，現在還很早，對吧？

So we're -- if you think about the crisis really starting in March, you don't even build these things until the following month and then you give people 30 days to pay.

所以我們——如果你考慮到危機實際上是從 3 月開始的，你甚至要到下個月才建造這些東西，然後你給人們 30 天的時間來付款。

And so we're sort of just getting into it.

所以我們才剛開始。

So anything we would say there would be speculative.

所以我們所說的任何事情都將是推測性的。

But that said, embedded, I think it's probably obvious but worth saying, embedded in the discussion that we've given you, both publicly and in Chris' -- and some of Chris' commentary earlier, is a working capital drag, whereas we've said, if things stay the way they are, meaning circa 90% down in revenue and in this environment, we have at least 24 months of liquidity and you've got our cash balance.

但話雖如此，我認為這可能是顯而易見的，但值得一提的是，嵌入在我們給你們的討論中，無論是公開的還是克里斯的一些評論，都是營運資金的拖累，而我們已經說過，如果情況維持現狀，這意味著收入下降約90%，在這種環境下，我們至少有24 個月的流動資金，而且我們還有現金餘額。

And so you can sort of just do the math and realize that if things stay the way they are, there is an embedded cash drag in there that could be in the hundreds of millions of dollars ultimately.

因此，你只需做一下數學計算，就會意識到，如果事情保持原樣，那麼最終可能會產生數億美元的內在現金拖累。

And so -- but of course, it depends on duration of the cycle, how it plays out.

所以——但是當然，這取決於週期的持續時間以及它如何進行。

And ultimately, we believe, as Chris just got done explaining, that the business is healthy, it's going to come back.

最終，我們相信，正如克里斯剛剛解釋的那樣，業務是健康的，它會回來的。

And when it comes back, we think we're going to get paid.

當它回來時，我們認為我們會得到報酬。

And our next question comes from Anthony Powell from Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的安東尼·鮑威爾。

So longer term, how do you think this event changes the financing market for new hotel construction?

從長遠來看，您認為這起事件如何改變新酒店建設的融資市場？

Do you think lenders may require higher equity contributions or higher cash reserves?

您認為貸款人可能會要求更高的股本出資或更高的現金儲備嗎？

And could this be a headwind for construction and your net unit growth over the medium to longer term?

這是否會成為中長期建築業和淨單位成長的阻力？

Yes.

是的。

That's a good question, Anthony.

這是個好問題，安東尼。

And the reality is we don't really know, but what I think is that, generally, when you come out of these crises, lenders get appropriately more cautious, although I would say that even pre-COVID, we were pretty deep into an economic cycle, and so you were starting to see caution.

現實是我們真的不知道，但我認為，一般來說，當你走出這些危機時，貸款人會適當地更加謹慎，儘管我想說，即使在新冠疫情之前，我們也已經陷入了困境。週期，所以你開始變得謹慎。

That said, over the long term, I would say, for construction, most of the hotels that get built in our system are not actually even financed aggressively.

也就是說，從長遠來看，我想說，對於建設而言，我們系統中建造的大多數酒店實際上都沒有積極的融資。

When you're talking about like big full-service hotels and luxury hotels, sometimes they use more leverage.

當你談論大型全方位服務酒店和豪華酒店時，有時他們會使用更多槓桿。

But the lion's share of the hotels that get built in our system were not actually financed all that aggressively.

但在我們的系統中建造的大部分酒店實際上並沒有那麼積極地融資。

You're talking about like 50% loan to cost.

你說的是50%的貸款成本。

And I would say, personally, I think that when the business recovers, the lending community will be there.

我想說，就我個人而言，我認為當業務復甦時，貸款社區就會出現。

And as long as hotels are productive and profitable investments that they'll be able to be financed.

只要酒店是富有成效且有利可圖的投資，它們就能夠獲得融資。

And then I think the last thing I'd add is you have to remember the amount of liquidity that is in the system pre-COVID.

然後我想我要補充的最後一件事是你必須記住新冠疫情之前系統中的流動性數量。

You're talking about like tripling plus of the money supply from quantitative easing and then -- and even more capital being injected into systems globally.

你說的是量化寬鬆導致的貨幣供應增加三倍，然後更多的資本被注入全球系統。

There's going to be plenty of capital looking for productive yields.

將會有大量資本尋求生產性收益。

And I would say, for some period of time, it will be a distressed environment.

我想說，在一段時間內，這將是一個痛苦的環境。

And then it will -- and as it always does, it will recover back to normal.

然後它會——而且一如既往，它會恢復正常。

Got it.

知道了。

And maybe just one more.

也許還有一個。

You mentioned that you've relaxed brand standards across the board which helped owners.

您提到您全面放寬了品牌標準，這對業主有所幫助。

How do you manage that with customer expectations as you start to see recovery?

當您開始看到復甦時，您如何滿足客戶的期望？

Hilton Honors has been known for a very consistent experience across the board.

希爾頓榮譽客會以始終如一的全方位體驗而聞名。

Customers are going to be returning to see no breakfast buffets or whatnot.

顧客回來後會發現沒有自助早餐或類似的東西。

How do you manage that going forward?

未來你將如何因應？

I think it's a really good question.

我認為這是一個非常好的問題。

I think in the short term, as we've been talking to customers and surveying customers, they -- everybody gets what's going on in the world.

我認為在短期內，當我們一直在與客戶交談並調查客戶時，他們——每個人都了解世界上正在發生的事情。

So they're incredibly lenient.

所以他們非常寬容。

And so we have not -- we're not serving sadly that many customers, but those that we are, who are mostly on the front lines of recovery efforts, have been fine with all of the standard changes and suspension of certain elements of the service.

因此，我們沒有——遺憾的是，我們沒有為那麼多客戶提供服務，但我們這些客戶，他們大多處於恢復工作的前線，對所有標準變化和某些元素的暫停都表示滿意。

The work that I described that we're doing is sort of in the intermediate and long-term in making sure that we, one, create the most efficient operating model; and two, obviously, continue, as you implied -- as implied to your question to drive premium market share.

我所描述的我們正在做的工作是中期和長期的，以確保我們，第一，創建最有效的營運模式；第二，創建最高效的營運模式。顯然，兩個繼續，正如您所暗示的那樣——正如您關於推動優質市場份額的問題所暗示的那樣。

I mean we're not -- we continue to have the premium market share in the industry; we have no plan to give that up.

我的意思是我們不是——我們繼續擁有該行業的優質市場份額；我們沒有計劃放棄這一件事。

The trick is, as we transition from the intermediate to the longer term, what are the things that you basically put back into the standards?

訣竅在於，當我們從中期過渡到長期時，您基本上將哪些內容放回標準中？

And what do you take -- what do you leave out and/or change?

你會採取什麼－你會遺漏和/或改變什麼？

And that's sort of -- I can't give you the answer, and not because I don't want to, I don't have it yet.

這就是──我無法給你答案，不是因為我不想，而是我還沒有答案。

I mean that's the work that we are doing right now.

我的意思是，這就是我們現在正在做的工作。

I suspect that what we will do is test a whole bunch of different things, I know we will, as will others during the intermediate time frame when customers are very forgiving.

我懷疑我們要做的是測試一大堆不同的東西，我知道我們會的，其他人也會在客戶非常寬容的中間時間範圍內進行測試。

And what we're going to do is iterate, with the objective of making sure that we are delivering premium product and service always to get our market share premiums, but we want to drive efficiency.

我們要做的是迭代，目標是確保我們始終提供優質的產品和服務，以獲得我們的市場份額溢價，但我們希望提高效率。

So short term is easy.

所以短期很容易。

Intermediate term, I think, will be a significant opportunity for testing when you're still on a relatively low demand environment, where customers are still quite sort of accepting of things that are different.

我認為，當您仍處於需求相對較低的環境時，中期將是一個重要的測試機會，客戶仍然可以接受不同的事物。

And then I think what we learn in that intermediate time frame, we will sort of institute as our longer-range standards.

然後我認為我們在中間時間框架中學到的東西，我們將制定為我們的長期標準。

And we're working through all of that.

我們正在努力解決所有這些問題。

I think there'll be a whole bunch of things that we'll do that will be more efficient long term.

我認為我們會做很多事情，長遠來看會更有效率。

And there are going to be some that we're going to -- some standards that we are going to -- that our customers are going to want in a more normalized environment, and we're going to reinstitute.

我們將制定一些標準，我們將制定一些標準，我們的客戶希望在一個更規範化的環境中實現這些標準，我們將重新制定這些標準。

Our next question comes from Stephen Grambling from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的史蒂芬·格蘭布林。

Two related follow-ups.

兩個相關的後續行動。

First, on the working capital drag you cited in the hundreds of millions of dollars potentially, you mentioned it depends on how long this will last.

首先，關於您提到的可能數億美元的營運資金拖累，您提到這取決於這種情況會持續多久。

So on the cash burn and months of liquidity you provided in the debt deal, I think you were assuming that this is -- or maybe you can elaborate on whether you're assuming this is a consistent drag each quarter or if that would potentially moderate even if things remain weak.

因此，關於您在債務交易中提供的現金消耗和數月的流動性，我認為您假設這是——或者也許您可以詳細說明您是否假設這是每個季度的持續拖累，或者這是否可能會緩解即使事情仍然疲軟。

And then second, can you talk a little bit more about what you're seeing from consumers as it relates to the loyalty program, you have some of the partnerships you have and how that may impact the model both during this period and then also how you ensure customer engagement to position yourselves to use this asset to take share in an eventual recovery?

其次，您能多談談您從消費者那裡看到的與忠誠度計劃相關的內容嗎？客戶參與，以利用該資產來分享最終的復甦嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So on the working capital, Stephen, I would say, look, the assumptions that we gave publicly, which, again, just to make sure everyone's clear, as part of the bond deal, we said 18 to 24 months, that was pre-money for the bond deal, and we ended up upsizing that deal.

因此，關於營運資金，史蒂芬，我想說，看，我們公開給出的假設，再次，只是為了確保每個人都清楚，作為債券交易的一部分，我們說 18 到 24 個月，那是預-債券交易的資金，我們最終擴大了交易規模。

So that's sort of how you get to the longer end of that range.

這就是你如何達到該範圍的較長一端。

I would say that again, the -- when the crisis is new, things are a little sharper.

我想再說一遍，當危機剛出現時，事情會變得更加尖銳。

So the way I'd characterize it is the first months, second quarter of this year probably would be the worst on that front and then it would moderate from there.

因此，我的描述方式是，今年的前幾個月和第二季可能是這方面最糟糕的，然後從那裡開始會有所緩和。

But again, the assumption and the analysis are --

但同樣，假設和分析是——

The assumption that get to the 24 months or 20 -- at least 24 months are basically you have little or no --

假設達到 24 個月或 20 個月——至少 24 個月基本上你有很少或沒有——

That you stay that way for that long.

讓你維持這種狀態那麼久。

Yes, that you stay that way.

是的，你要保持這種狀態。

Yes.

是的。

So -- and from that perspective, again, I said it would be a little bit harsher at the beginning, and then it would be relatively flat, again, in that -- under those assumptions.

因此，從這個角度來看，我再次說過，在這些假設下，一開始會更加嚴厲，然後會相對平坦。

With any kind of recovery curve, it gets better from there.

對於任何類型的恢復曲線，它都會從那裡變得更好。

And then on the loyalty program side, just any color you can provide on that.

然後在忠誠度計劃方面，您可以提供任何顏色。

Yes.

是的。

We have done a bunch of things.

我們已經做了很多事情。

If you look at it.

如果你看一下。

I'd say, first of all, not that we have a lot of business, but our Honors occupancy with the modest business we have has skyrocketed.

我想說，首先，並不是我們有很多業務，而是我們的榮譽入住率與我們擁有的微薄業務一起激增。

So it was already very high.

所以它已經很高了。

And now it's a lot higher because they -- seemingly, they are more willing to travel than, I guess, non-Honors members.

現在這個數字要高得多，因為我猜他們似乎比非榮譽會員更願意旅行。

But what we've been focused on during this time frame, and you can see it in a lot of the things I talked about and that you would see publicly is, people aren't traveling that much.

但在這段時間裡，我們一直關注的焦點是，人們旅行的次數減少了，你可以從我談到的很多事情中看到這一點，你會公開看到這一點。

So what can we do to build loyalty?

那我們可以做些什麼來建立忠誠度呢？

We can give them flexibility.

我們可以給他們靈活性。

So we -- in the industry, we were the first ones, I believe, certainly, we were very early to come out and give very significant cancellation flexibility.

所以我們——在這個行業，我們是第一批，我相信，當然，我們很早就出來了，並提供了非常大的取消靈活性。

We were definitely the first to come out and give status, allow people to remain -- keep their status.

我們絕對是第一個站出來給予地位、允許人們留下來──保持他們的地位的人。

We were definitely the first to come out and say, we're not going to have points expire.

我們絕對是第一個站出來說，我們不會讓積分過期的。

We did a bunch of things to say to our Honors members, "No fault of your own, you can't travel, and we're not going to hold that against you." We've been communicating with them regularly.

我們做了很多事情來對我們的榮譽會員說：“這不是你們自己的錯，你們不能旅行，我們不會因此而責怪你們。”我們一直與他們定期溝通。

And so far, I'd say that's going well.

到目前為止，我想說進展順利。

The work that we're doing in the community, we're doing that because we want to be part of the solution, not part of the problem.

我們在社區中所做的工作是因為我們希望成為解決方案的一部分，而不是問題的一部分。

So our 1 million room nights with AMX to first responders for free, our World Central Kitchen work, all of the other work that we're doing is about sort of continuing to build our brand, the Honors brand with consumers who are sitting around and can't move but are watching a lot of TV and reading a lot, doing a lot of social media and they're seeing these things.

因此，我們為急救人員免費提供100 萬間AMX 住宿，我們的世界中央廚房工作，我們正在做的所有其他工作都是為了繼續打造我們的品牌，即與坐在周圍的消費者一起打造的榮譽品牌。

The net result is, in terms of our numbers, our marketing team has been looking at it, like intent to consider purchase of our product, Net Promoter Score, whatever, those numbers have gone way up through the crisis as a result of people realizing, we're doing the right things.

最終結果是，就我們的數字而言，我們的行銷團隊一直在關注它，例如考慮購買我們產品的意圖、淨推薦值等等，由於人們意識到，這些數字在危機中大幅上升，我們正在做正確的事。

And so my attitude, which is the way I think about life when you go into this, just like the way I thought about it when we went into the Great Recession, which was different but similar, is when everything is good, it's really hard to differentiate yourselves.

所以我的態度，就是當你進入這個時期時我對生活的看法，就像我們進入大衰退時我對生活的看法一樣，雖然不同但相似，那就是當一切都很好時，這真的很困難讓自己與眾不同。

I mean I think we have -- I think we've done a great job, but you get caught up in an arms race.

我的意思是，我認為我們做得很好，但你陷入了軍備競賽。

When everything is bad, people peel off and go different directions, and you have a real opportunity to differentiate yourself.

當一切都不好的時候，人們會剝離並走向不同的方向，而你就有一個真正的機會讓自己脫穎而出。

And so what I've said from the day we got in this crisis is as much as we need to solidify the core and deal with liquidity, which Kevin and the team have done an amazing job on, and protect the -- and deal with the cost structure and all those things, we have been crazy focused on making sure we are listening to customers, particularly Honors members, and doing the right thing for them, that we are crazy focused on our owners, as I've already talked a lot about, to do everything we can for them.

因此，從我們陷入這場危機的那天起，我所說的就是我們需要鞏固核心並處理流動性，凱文和團隊在這方面做得非常出色，並保護並處理流動性成本結構和所有這些事情，我們一直瘋狂地專注於確保我們傾聽客戶的意見，特別是榮譽會員，並為他們做正確的事情，我們瘋狂地專注於我們的所有者，正如我已經談到的為他們做一切我們可以做的事情。

That we're crazy involved in our communities so that people remember that we were -- that we were part of the solution because that will continue to build loyalty.

我們瘋狂地參與我們的社區，以便人們記住我們是解決方案的一部分，因為這將繼續建立忠誠。

And obviously, as impactful as it has been to our team members that we're -- as we're impacting them, we're doing it in the right way in a way that is really taking care of them as best we can.

顯然，儘管我們對我們的團隊成員產生了影響，但我們正在以正確的方式做到這一點，並真正盡最大努力照顧他們。

And so my attitude is, while this is all painful, there's no other way to describe it, what we do now will determine our future, and we are absolutely committed as a team and a company to continue to differentiate ourselves with all of our stakeholders and to come out the other side of this stronger, including with our Honors members.

所以我的態度是，雖然這一切都很痛苦，但沒有其他方式可以描述它，我們現在所做的將決定我們的未來，我們絕對致力於作為一個團隊和一家公司，繼續在所有利益相關者中脫穎而出並走出困境的另一邊，包括我們的榮譽會員。

And so far, we're -- I think doing a very good job doing that.

到目前為止，我認為我們在這方面做得非常好。

Our next question comes from Bill Crow from Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自雷蒙德詹姆斯的比爾克勞。

Chris, based on your discussion, I think it was with Harry earlier, it sounds like your view is that the primary gating factor for travel is not the hotel, it's the airplane, the airline.

克里斯，根據你的討論，我認為早些時候是和哈利一起討論的，聽起來你的觀點是旅行的主要限制因素不是酒店，而是飛機、航空公司。

And if that's the case, is it fair to suggest that no matter how much they discount fares, it's probably not going to be as stimulative as it would have been in prior downturns?

如果是這樣的話，那麼是否可以公平地說，無論票價折扣多少，都可能不會像之前的經濟低迷時期那樣起到刺激作用？

And then the second part of that is, does that also mean that the larger coastal gateway markets come back far later than the rest of the country?

第二部分是，這是否也意味著較大的海岸門戶市場的回歸時間遠晚於全國其他地區？

Well, to a degree, yes.

嗯，在某種程度上，是的。

But let me reframe it a little bit.

但讓我稍微重新定義一下。

But what I was saying, which is right, that to get back to full recovery, I think the airlines are a gating issue.

但我所說的是正確的，為了完全恢復，我認為航空公司是一個門控問題。

People have to be comfortable to get on planes.

人們必須舒適地乘坐飛機。

Planes have to be flying.

飛機必須飛行。

There's a bunch of the business, particularly in the big -- in the major markets that are -- that is fly to.

有很多業務，特別是在大型市場——主要市場——需要飛往。

And so to get to full recovery, you have to have that.

因此，為了完全康復，你必須做到這一點。

I absolutely believe you can get a significant amount of recovery before you get there.

我絕對相信您在到達那裡之前可以獲得顯著的康復。

I think it's -- Bill, I wish I had all the answers.

我想是──比爾，我希望我能得到所有的答案。

I think it's wrapped up in a whole bunch of different things that relate to what's going on with vaccines, therapeutics, human nature and just a comfort factor.

我認為它包含在一大堆不同的事情中，這些事情與疫苗、治療、人性以及舒適因素有關。

My own belief is, as you continue to get more testing, which is what I've been reinforcing with the White House and everybody that will listen, and including antibody testing, that you are going to understand that because the data is pretty clear, that while this is a terrible virus and it's affecting people's life and is killing people, which is horrific and every life is important, when you get down to it, it has infected a lot more people that we know and the mortality rate is much, much lower than people have thought.

我自己的信念是，隨著你繼續接受更多的測試，這就是我一直向白宮和每個願意傾聽的人強調的，包括抗體測試，你會明白，因為數據非常清楚，雖然這是一種可怕的病毒，它正在影響人們的生活，正在殺死人們，這是可怕的，每個生命都很重要，但當你認真對待它時，它已經感染了我們認識的更多人，死亡率也很高，比人們想像的要低得多。

And the real data suggests there's a very small part of the population that is really at risk.

真實數據表明，只有極小部分人口真正面臨風險。

I think the more of the testing data that comes out even without a vaccine or a therapeutic, the more people are going, particularly those that are not as at risk, the more comfort that they are going to have.

我認為，即使沒有疫苗或治療方法，測試數據越多，參加的人就越多，特別是那些沒有面臨風險的人，他們就會感到越舒服。

With a vaccine and/or therapeutic, I think it's game changing.

有了疫苗和/或治療方法，我認為這正在改變遊戲規則。

And so I'm not trying to be evasive.

所以我並不想迴避。

I just think it's going to be iterative.

我只是認為這將是迭代的。

I think you're going to have drive to business.

我認為你會有動力去做生意。

You're going to have some fly to business.

您將有一些航班去上班。

People are going to socially space, wear masks and all that.

人們會去社交空間，戴口罩等等。

And there will be people that go out.

而且還會有人出去。

The more they understand the real mortality rate, the more therapeutics and/or vaccine progress we have, I think, it will, as I said 2 or 3 different times, I think when you wake up in a couple of years, it will feel a lot more like it did 90 days ago than it does now.

他們對真實死亡率了解得越多，我們在治療和/或疫苗方面取得的進展就越多，我想，正如我在兩到三次不同的時間裡說過的那樣，我想當你幾年後醒來時，你會感覺90 天前的情況比現在多得多。

And the path depends on a whole bunch of variables that are not particularly well known.

這條路徑取決於一大堆並不是特別為人所知的變數。

But I think it will progress.

但我認為它會進步。

We will recover.

我們會康復的。

First, with more drive to, some fly to, and that will happen.

首先，隨著更多的駕駛前往，有些人會飛去，這將會發生。

I mean people are -- you're going to -- this summer, you start looking at the airline numbers, and you're going to see a big shift up.

我的意思是，人們——你將會——今年夏天，你開始查看航空公司的數字，你會看到一個巨大的轉變。

It's not going to be anywhere near where it was.

它不會再靠近原來的地方了。

But in my opinion, this summer, you will see a heck of a lot more people getting on planes and in airports than you see right now.

但在我看來，今年夏天，你會看到搭乘飛機和機場的人數比現在多得多。

So I think it's just going to be a progression.

所以我認為這只是一個進步。

Hope you're right.

希望你是對的。

Chris, if I could just follow up with one other question that I'm not sure you can answer.

克里斯，如果我能再問一個我不確定你能回答的問題嗎？

But as you look out, you're talking about 2, 3, 4 years out using this period for innovation and whatnot.

但正如你所看到的，你正在談論 2、3、4 年，利用這段時間進行創新等等。

Do you think the operating cost or cost per occupied room will be lower or higher as we start to stabilize this industry?

您認為當我們開始穩定這個行業時，營運成本或每間客房的成本會更低還是更高？

Lower.

降低。

For sure.

一定。

Lower.

降低。

I mean just because of all the things that we're working on, I can't tell you how much lower, because I don't have the answer yet.

我的意思是，由於我們正在做的所有事情，我無法告訴你降低了多少，因為我還沒有答案。

But they're clearly, clearly, I mean there are a few things, Bill, as you might guess, that are going to cost a little bit more like our clean stay standard working with Lysol and Mayo.

但他們很明顯，很明顯，我的意思是，比爾，正如你可能猜到的那樣，有一些事情會花費更多一點，就像我們與 Lysol 和 Mayo 合作的清潔住宿標準一樣。

Yes, I mean Lysol products may be a little more expensive than some of the products used; that's relatively insignificant.

是的，我的意思是來蘇爾產品可能比一些使用的產品貴一點；這是相對微不足道的。

The other things that we're thinking about in terms of garnering efficiencies vastly outweigh that.

我們在提高效率方面考慮的其他事情遠遠超過了這一點。

So I think when we wake up on a stabilized basis, operating costs are going to go down.

所以我認為，當我們在穩定的基礎上醒來時，營運成本將會下降。

Our next question comes from Robin Farley from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的羅賓法利。

Great.

偉大的。

Most of my questions have been asked, but I did want to follow up on the unit growth question, and I appreciate how difficult it is to have visibility on this.

我的大部分問題都被問到了，但我確實想跟進單位成長問題，而且我知道要了解這一點是多麼困難。

You were talking about financing, that there'll be capital available.

你在談論融資，會有可用的資金。

But I guess just thinking about from a perspective of owner appetite and when you kind of look at historic downturns, anything under construction, as you've pointed out, would open and the decline or, I guess, slower rate of growth typically in supply would usually come a year or 2 later because of those new projects.

但我想，從業主胃口的角度考慮，當你看到歷史性的低迷時期時，正如你所指出的，任何在建項目都會開放，並且供應量會下降，或者我猜，增長率會放緩由於這些新項目，通常會在一兩年後出現。

So I wonder if you could talk about kind of owner appetite.

所以我想知道你是否可以談談業主的胃口。

It seems like given even what you're saying about how it could take a couple of years to get back to 2019 levels that maybe an owner or developer that hasn't put a shovel in the ground yet would be rethinking anything that's not under construction, that then we would see something much lower than mid-single-digit growth in terms of pipeline kind of a year or so out from now?

似乎考慮到你所說的如何需要幾年時間才能恢復到 2019 年的水平，可能尚未動工的業主或開發商會重新考慮任何未在施工的項目，那麼從現在起一年左右的時間裡，我們會看到管道的成長遠低於中個位數的成長嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I think, listen, it's a good point, Robin.

我想，聽著，這是一個很好的觀點，羅賓。

And certainly, that is generally how it worked last time, although not really.

當然，這通常就是上次的工作方式，儘管事實並非如此。

I mean I think the first year after the great financial crisis was the low point and then it sort of started building from there.

我的意思是，我認為金融危機爆發後的第一年是低點，然後它就從那裡開始發展。

There was another year in 2012 where it sort of stayed low/went down a touch because of what you're describing.

2012 年還有一年，由於您所描述的情況，它的價格保持在低點/略有下降。

The difference this time is it's delayed, right?

這次的不同之處在於它延遲了，對嗎？

I mean it's a different crisis.

我的意思是這是一場不同的危機。

And you've just got construction that's being suspended, things are going to take longer and it's going to push.

而且施工剛暫停，事情會需要更長的時間，而且會繼續前進。

And then the other thing is you've had -- this is coming at the end of a cycle.

然後另一件事是你已經經歷過的——這是在一個週期結束時發生的。

So you just had -- you've had a bunch of deliveries and their existing hotels, and there's going to be a little bit less demand for a while and more -- we think more demand for our engines.

所以你剛剛——你已經有一堆交付和他們現有的酒店，並且一段時間內的需求會稍微減少——我們認為對我們的引擎的需求會增加。

So we do think we'll drive a higher level of conversions going forward.

因此，我們確實認為我們將推動更高水準的轉換。

And thus, we think a growing trajectory from here.

因此，我們認為從這裡開始會有一個成長的軌跡。

We'll see what happens, but that's what we think.

我們會看看會發生什麼，但這就是我們的想法。

Okay.

好的。

No, great.

不，太好了。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then one other sort of point on the same topic is, we looked at all the data historically for hotel removals, right?

關於同一主題的另一點是，我們查看了歷史上酒店搬遷的所有數據，對嗎？

Hotels that closed and never reopened in previous downturns.

在之前的經濟低迷時期，酒店都關閉了並且從未重新開業。

And like interestingly, that doesn't go up a lot even in '09, that wasn't really that much above average.

有趣的是，即使在 09 年，這一數字也沒有上升太多，實際上並沒有高於平均水平多少。

I would assume that you don't expect removals to be at a higher rate this year with this issue as well.

我認為您預計今年的搬遷率也不會因為這個問題而更高。

Or I mean -- but tell me if that's not accurate.

或者我的意思是——但請告訴我這是否不準確。

No, that's accurate.

不，這是準確的。

That's accurate.

這是準確的。

We think renewals will be very normal.

我們認為續約將是非常正常的。

And our next question comes from Thomas Allen from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的托馬斯艾倫。

Just in terms of buybacks, just want to -- so in the prepared remarks, in the press release it said Hilton formally suspend your buyback program, but the program remains authorized and you may resume share repurchases in the future at any time.

就回購而言，只是想——所以在準備好的演講中，在新聞稿中，它說希爾頓正式暫停你的回購計劃，但該計劃仍然得到授權，你可以在未來隨時恢復股票回購。

How are you thinking about the buyback program?

您如何看待回購計畫？

How are you thinking about the right leverage levels?

您如何考慮正確的槓桿水平？

Any clarity there would be helpful.

任何澄清都會有幫助。

Yes.

是的。

A really good question.

一個非常好的問題。

And I'd say a little bit early given where we are to have -- sort of be dispositive about it.

我想說，考慮到我們將要採取的行動，有點早了——對此採取決定性的態度。

But I don't think long term, we have a -- in the short term, we're not going to be doing dividends and buybacks.

但我認為從長遠來看，我們不會——短期內，我們不會進行股利和回購。

We've made that pretty clear.

我們已經說得很清楚了。

As we get back to recovery in more -- a normalized environment, I don't think our capital allocation strategy has really changed.

當我們在更多的正常化環境中恢復復甦時，我認為我們的資本配置策略並沒有真正改變。

One might argue, even though I think from a liquidity point of view we find ourselves in a really good position and we did the right things, not just post-crisis, but pre-crisis in terms of having credit available, maturity schedule that was very attractive, those weren't lucky.

有人可能會說，儘管我認為從流動性的角度來看，我們發現自己處於非常有利的位置，並且我們做了正確的事情，不僅是在危機後，而且是在危機前提供可用信貸、到期時間表非常有吸引力，但那些人並不幸運。

I mean we knew we were at the end of the business cycle, and those are things that we planned out to make sure that we had all the financial flexibility we would need.

我的意思是，我們知道我們正處於商業週期的末期，這些都是我們計劃的事情，以確保我們擁有所需的所有財務靈活性。

Now did we know we would have COVID-19?

現在我們知道我們會感染 COVID-19 嗎？

Of course not.

當然不是。

But we knew we're at the end of the business cycle, and we wanted to have -- be really set up well for it.

但我們知道我們正處於商業週期的末期，我們希望為此做好準備。

And so we are.

我們也是如此。

And so I'd say this should hopefully be the greatest test of all time for a balance sheet.

所以我想說，這有望成為資產負債表有史以來最大的考驗。

It's hard to believe another one could be worse given what's happened.

考慮到所發生的事情，很難相信還有更糟糕的事情發生。

And I think we feel like we're in a really good position to sort of pass that test and have the liquidity and the credit profile to get through it.

我認為我們感覺我們處於非常有利的位置，可以通過測試，並擁有通過測試的流動性和信用狀況。

So I don't think when we get back to a normalized environment, we have too much of a different view.

所以我認為當我們回到正常化的環境時，我們不會有太多不同的觀點。

What I was going to say is you could argue about, would you be a little bit lower leverage than you might have been?

我想說的是，你可以爭論，你的槓桿率會比你本來應該的低一點嗎？

I'm sure we will debate that, and this isn't the time to conclude that.

我相信我們會對此進行辯論，但現在還不是結論的時候。

But more broadly, we will definitely resume at some point when we get to a normalized environment.

但更廣泛地說，當我們達到正常化的環境時，我們肯定會在某個時候恢復。

I believe our intention would be to resume sort of where we left off in terms of our capital allocation strategy.

我相信我們的目的是恢復我們在資本配置策略方面中斷的地方。

Okay.

好的。

I think that's it.

我想就是這樣。

Well, it's an interesting call and interesting times.

嗯，這是一個有趣的電話和有趣的時刻。

We appreciate everybody's time.

我們感謝大家的時間。

I know we've been talking with lots of people sort of as this has been going on.

我知道我們一直在與很多人交談，因為這件事一直在發生。

Obviously, happy to continue doing that as we work our way through this.

顯然，我們很高興在我們努力解決這個問題的過程中繼續這樣做。

As we said in our comments, second quarter will not be pretty.

正如我們在評論中所說，第二季度不會很好。

But hopefully, third quarter and fourth we'll be back on the road to recovery.

但希望第三季和第四季我們能回到復甦之路。

So everybody, stay safe, stay well.

所以大家一定要注意安全，保持健康。

And we're going to keep working awfully hard to do the right things here, and we'll look forward to catching up with you and updating you on where we are after the second quarter.

我們將繼續非常努力地做正確的事情，我們期待與您聯繫並在第二季度之後向您通報我們的最新情況。

Ladies and gentlemen, with that, we'll conclude today's conference.

女士們、先生們，今天的會議就到此結束。

We do thank you for joining.

我們非常感謝您的加入。

You may now disconnect your lines.

現在您可以斷開線路。