希爾頓酒店 (HLT) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to the Hilton Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 Earnings Conference call.

早安，歡迎參加希爾頓 2019 年第四季及全年財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

（操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Jill Slattery, Vice President, Investor Relations.

我現在想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Jill Slattery。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you, Chad.

謝謝你，查德。

Welcome to Hilton's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 Earnings Call.

歡迎參加希爾頓 2019 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。

Before we begin, we would like to remind you that our discussions this morning will include forward-looking statements.

在開始之前，我們想提醒您，我們今天上午的討論將包括前瞻性陳述。

Actual results could differ materially from those indicated in the forward-looking statements, and forward-looking statements made today speak only to our expectations as of today.

實際結果可能與前瞻性聲明中所示的結果有重大差異，今天發表的前瞻性聲明僅代表我們截至目前為止的預期。

We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise these statements.

我們不承擔公開更新或修改這些聲明的義務。

For a discussion of some of the risk factors that could cause actual results to differ, please see the Risk Factors section of our most recently filed Form 10-K.

有關可能導致實際結果不同的一些風險因素的討論，請參閱我們最近提交的表格 10-K 的風險因素部分。

In addition, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures on this call.

此外，我們將在本次電話會議上提及某些非公認會計準則財務指標。

You can find reconciliations of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures discussed in today's call in our earnings press release and on our website at ir.hilton.com.

您可以在我們的收益新聞稿和我們的網站 ir.hilton.com 上找到今天電話會議中討論的非 GAAP 與 GAAP 財務指標的調整表。

This morning, Chris Nassetta, our President and Chief Executive Officer, will provide an overview of the current operating environment and the company's outlook; Kevin Jacobs, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, will then review our fourth quarter and full year results and provide an update on our expectations for the year ahead.

今天早上，我們的總裁兼執行長 Chris Nassetta 將概述當前的營運環境和公司的前景；我們的執行副總裁兼財務長凱文·雅各布斯隨後將回顧我們第四季度和全年的業績，並提供我們對未來一年的預期的最新資訊。

Following their remarks, we'll be happy to take your questions.

在他們的發言之後，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

With that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Chris.

至此，我很高興將電話轉給克里斯。

Thank you, Jill, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝吉爾，大家早安。

Thanks for joining us today.

感謝您今天加入我們。

We're happy to report that our 100th year of hospitality was one of our strongest yet.

我們很高興地向大家報告，我們的熱情好客一百週年是我們迄今為止最強大的一年之一。

We delivered record growth and industry-leading innovations while further strengthening the positive impact we're having in the communities we serve all around the world.

我們實現了創紀錄的成長和領先業界的創新，同時進一步加強了我們對世界各地所服務的社區的正面影響。

For the full year, we grew adjusted EBITDA 10% and adjusted EPS 14%, both ahead of our expectations.

全年調整後 EBITDA 成長 10%，調整後每股盈餘成長 14%，皆超出我們的預期。

System-wide RevPAR growth grew nearly 1% for the year, largely consistent with our recent guidance.

今年全系統 RevPAR 成長近 1%，與我們最近的指引基本一致。

Our brands continue to perform well, achieving the strongest market share gains we've seen in a decade despite a more challenging environment that weighed on our top line.

儘管更具挑戰性的環境給我們的營收帶來了壓力，但我們的品牌繼續表現良好，實現了十年來最強勁的市場份額成長。

We also demonstrated the power of our business model and disciplined capital allocation strategy by returning more than $1.7 billion or 8% of our market cap to shareholders in the form of buybacks and dividends.

我們也以回購和股利的形式向股東返還超過 17 億美元（占我們市值的 8%），展現了我們商業模式和嚴格資本配置策略的力量。

Turning to results for the quarter.

轉向本季的業績。

Adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS grew in the high single-digit range, exceeding our expectations.

調整後 EBITDA 和調整後每股收益在高個位數範圍內成長，超出了我們的預期。

RevPAR declined 1% in the quarter as weaker-than-expected business transient performance offset leisure gains.

由於業務短暫表現弱於預期，抵消了休閒收益的成長，本季每間可用客房收入下降了 1%。

Softer business investment trends pressured results in the U.S., and slowing economic growth in China, trade tensions and ongoing protests in Hong Kong weighed on performance across Asia Pacific.

商業投資趨勢疲軟給美國業績帶來壓力，中國經濟成長放緩、貿易緊張局勢和香港持續的抗議活動也給亞太地區的業績帶來壓力。

As we look to the year ahead, excluding the potential impact of the coronavirus, which I'll discuss in a minute, we expect 2020 top line growth to be similar to modestly softer than 2019.

展望未來一年，排除冠狀病毒的潛在影響（我將在稍後討論），我們預計 2020 年的營收成長將與 2019 年類似，略為疲軟。

Consumer sentiment remains strong, but macro forecasts continue to call for positive but decelerating GDP and nonresidential fixed investment growth.

消費者信心依然強勁，但宏觀預測繼續要求國內生產毛額和非住宅固定投資成長積極但正在放緩。

Forward group bookings remain up in the low single digits, consistent with our prior quarter's commentary.

遠期團體預訂量仍保持在較低的個位數成長，這與我們上一季的評論一致。

With that backdrop, we expect leisure and group growth to continue to outperform business transient.

在此背景下，我們預期休閒和團體成長將繼續優於商業瞬態成長。

On the supply side in the U.S., the growth forecast is slightly below the long-term average of 2% and is expected to modestly exceed demand growth for the year which could pressure occupancy and limit rate growth.

在美國的供應方面，成長預測略低於 2% 的長期平均水平，預計今年將小幅超過需求成長，這可能會對入住率造成壓力並限制利率成長。

Given these macro trends before the impact of the coronavirus, we would expect flat to 1% RevPAR growth for the full year.

考慮到冠狀病毒影響之前的這些宏觀趨勢，我們預計全年 RevPAR 成長將持平至 1%。

Now as it relates to the coronavirus, it goes without saying that the safety and well-being of our team members and our guests remain a paramount priority as we continue to carefully monitor the situation.

現在，由於與冠狀病毒有關，不言而喻，我們團隊成員和客人的安全和福祉仍然是我們的首要任務，因為我們將繼續密切監測局勢。

We're working with local governments and health authorities globally to best support our operations and our communities in impacted areas.

我們正在與全球地方政府和衛生當局合作，以最好地支持我們在受影響地區的營運和社區。

While it is still early days, drawing on the industry's experience with SARS and other similar situations, we've tried to estimate the potential impact on our business.

雖然現在還處於早期階段，但我們已經根據行業在 SARS 和其他類似情況下的經驗，嘗試估計對我們業務的潛在影響。

Assuming the outbreak lasts around 3 to 6 months with an additional 3- to 6-month recovery period, for the full year, we would estimate a potential 100 basis point impact to comp system-wide RevPAR growth assuming closed hotels ultimately wind up being noncomp.

假設疫情持續約 3 至 6 個月，並有額外 3 至 6 個月的恢復期，我們預計全年的可售房收入增長可能會受到 100 個基點的影響（假設關閉的酒店最終成為非公司） 。

We would expect roughly a 0.5-point impact to net unit growth, which would be largely within our guidance range, and a $25 million to $50 million impact to full year adjusted EBITDA.

我們預計淨單位成長將受到約 0.5 個百分點的影響，這基本上在我們的指導範圍之內，而全年調整後 EBITDA 將受到 2,500 萬至 5,000 萬美元的影響。

At this point, roughly 150 of our hotels in China, totaling approximately 33,000 rooms, are closed.

目前，我們在中國的約 150 家酒店（總計約 33,000 間客房）已關閉。

Turning to development.

轉向發展。

We continue to deliver on our commitment to capital-light growth.

我們繼續履行輕資本成長的承諾。

2019 marked our fifth consecutive year of record approvals, construction starts and openings.

2019 年是我們連續第五年創下審批、開工和開業記錄。

For the full year, we achieved net unit growth of 6.6%, also marking 5 consecutive years of net unit growth of approximately 6.5%.

全年，我們實現了 6.6% 的淨單位成長，也標誌著連續 5 年淨單位成長約 6.5%。

We opened more than a hotel a day, totaling approximately 470 properties and 65,000 rooms, growing our portfolio to more than 6,100 properties and 970,000 rooms across 119 countries and territories.

我們每天開設超過一家酒店，總計約 470 家酒店和 65,000 間客房，將我們的投資組合擴大到遍布 119 個國家和地區的 6,100 多家酒店和 970,000 間客房。

Even with strong openings, we increased our pipeline 6% year-over-year to more than 380,000 -- 387,000 rooms or roughly 40% of our existing base driven by record approvals of more than 116,000 rooms.

即使空缺數量較多，我們的待售客房仍年增6%，達到超過380,000 間客房，即387,000 間客房，約佔現有客房數的40%，這得益於超過116,000 間客房的創紀錄批准。

As a further testament to the high quality of our pipeline, we had record construction starts of nearly 87,000 rooms.

我們已開工近 87,000 間客房，創下新紀錄，這進一步證明了我們管道的高品質。

In the U.S., starts increased 13% year-over-year.

在美國，開工率年增 13%。

With half of our global pipeline under construction, we remain confident in our ability to deliver at least 6% net unit growth for the next several years.

由於我們全球一半的管道正在建設中，我們仍然有信心在未來幾年內實現至少 6% 的淨單位成長。

We feel good about our future growth opportunities and ability to achieve our development goals given our strong track record over the last decade.

鑑於我們過去十年的良好業績記錄，我們對未來的成長機會和實現發展目標的能力感到滿意。

Since our go-private transaction, we have doubled the size of our system with rooms in the U.S. up roughly 80%.

自私有化交易以來，我們的系統規模擴大了一倍，美國的客房數量增加了約 80%。

Internationally, we've increased our portfolio size more than 3x.

在國際上，我們的投資組合規模增加了三倍以上。

Additionally, more than 70% of our current rooms under construction are located in international markets.

此外，我們目前正在興建的客房 70% 以上位於國際市場。

We have added 9 new brands to our system, doubling our portfolio of brands.

我們在系統中增加了 9 個新品牌，使我們的品牌組合增加了一倍。

Our disciplined global development strategy has allowed us to reach more guests for more stay occasions and better leverage the power of our network effect.

我們嚴格的全球發展策略使我們能夠接觸到更多的客人，獲得更多的住宿機會，並更好地利用我們的網路效應的力量。

Last month, we launched our newest brand, Tempo by Hilton, the latest example of our ability to anticipate guest needs and deliver unmatched value for our customers and our owners.

上個月，我們推出了最新品牌 Tempo by Hilton，這是我們預測賓客需求並為客戶和業主提供無與倫比的價值能力的最新例證。

Tempo is a thoughtfully designed mid-market lifestyle brand that empowers guests to prioritize well-being and personal growth while traveling, all powered by an efficient service model.

Tempo 是一個精心設計的中階市場生活風格品牌，讓賓客在旅行時優先考慮健康和個人成長，而這一切均由高效的服務模式提供支援。

As with all of our organically developed brands, we created Tempo based on feedback from literally thousands of customers, owners and team members.

與我們所有有機開發的品牌一樣，我們根據數千名客戶、所有者和團隊成員的回饋創建了 Tempo。

We're excited to have 60 deals in various stages of development at this point.

我們很高興目前有 60 項處於不同開發階段的交易。

In the fourth quarter, our award-winning loyalty program reached 100 million members and ended the year with more than 103 million members.

第四季度，我們屢獲殊榮的忠誠度計畫覆蓋了 1 億會員，到年底會員人數已超過 1.03 億人。

Honors members accounted for more than 64% of occupancy in the quarter, up nearly 150 basis points year-over-year.

本季榮譽會員入住率超過 64%，較去年同期成長近 150 個基點。

With features like digital key now live in the majority of our properties around the world and our industry-leading Connected Room offering, we are using technology to deliver reliable, friendly and memorable guest experiences.

憑藉數位鑰匙等功能，我們在世界各地的大多數酒店都配備了數位鑰匙等功能，並提供業界領先的連通客房產品，我們正在利用技術來提供可靠、友好和難忘的賓客體驗。

We also continue to hear great feedback from members on our partnerships, which enhance the utility of their points, strengthen our system and offer guest experiences that money can't buy.

我們也持續收到會員對我們的合作關係的良好回饋，這增強了他們積分的效用，加強了我們的系統，並提供金錢買不到的賓客體驗。

We recently expanded our partnership with Live Nation, the world's leading live entertainment company, to offer Hilton Honors members even greater access to tickets and live music experiences.

我們最近擴大了與全球領先的現場娛樂公司 Live Nation 的合作關係，為希爾頓榮譽客會會員提供更多門票和現場音樂體驗。

Additionally, our loyalty members can now earn and redeem Honors points when they ride with Lyft through our first-of-a-kind partnership with a leading rideshare company.

此外，透過我們與領先的乘車共享公司的首次合作，我們的忠誠會員現在可以在乘坐 Lyft 時賺取和兌換榮譽積分。

Looking beyond our industry-leading brands and loyalty system, we're also proud to contribute to the communities we serve and lead our industry in corporate responsibility.

除了業界領先的品牌和忠誠度體系之外，我們還很自豪能夠為我們所服務的社群做出貢獻，並在企業責任方面引領業界。

In the fourth quarter, we achieved our operation opportunity goal to hire 30,000 veterans, military spouses and caregivers and expanded that commitment to hire an additional 25,000 by 2025.

第四季度，我們實現了僱用 30,000 名退伍軍人、軍人配偶和護理人員的營運機會目標，並擴大了這項承諾，到 2025 年再僱用 25,000 名。

During the year, we were named the 2019 Global Industry Leader on the Dow Jones Sustainability Index, the global standard for measuring and advancing corporate ESG practices.

年內，我們被道瓊永續指數評為 2019 年全球產業領導者，這是衡量和推廣企業 ESG 實踐的全球標準。

We were also the only hospitality company on Fortune's 2019 Change the World list for a second year in a row.

我們也連續第二年成為《財星》2019 年「改變世界」榜單上唯一一家飯店公司。

Overall, 2019 was a remarkable year for us.

整體而言，2019 年對我們來說是非凡的一年。

We achieved record development growth, hit the 100 million Honors member milestone, we're named the #1 Great Place to Work in the United States and continued to deliver on our commitment to serve any guest anywhere in the world for any travel need they have.

我們實現了創紀錄的發展成長，達到了1 億榮譽會員的里程碑，我們被評為美國排名第一的最佳工作場所，並繼續履行我們的承諾，為世界各地的任何客人提供滿足其任何旅行需求的服務。

As we look to the year ahead, we're confident in our ability to continue delivering for all of our Hilton stakeholders.

展望未來一年，我們對繼續為所有希爾頓利益相關者提供服務的能力充滿信心。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Kevin for a few more details on our results and our outlook for the future.

接下來，我會將電話轉給凱文，以了解有關我們的業績和未來展望的更多詳細資訊。

Thanks, Chris, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝克里斯，大家早安。

In the quarter, system-wide RevPAR declined 1% versus the prior year on a comparable and currency-neutral basis as weaker-than-expected business transient demand and a soft group calendar offset moderate leisure growth.

本季度，在可比較和貨幣中性的基礎上，全系統的 RevPAR 比前一年下降了 1%，因為商業短暫需求弱於預期和疲軟的團體日曆抵消了適度的休閒成長。

We estimate that calendar shifts and onetime events tempered system-wide RevPAR growth by roughly 90 basis points.

我們估計，日曆變更和一次性事件使系統範圍內的 RevPAR 成長下降了約 90 個基點。

Adjusted EBITDA of $586 million exceeded the high end of our guidance range, increasing 8% year-over-year.

調整後 EBITDA 為 5.86 億美元，超出了我們指導範圍的上限，年增 8%。

Our performance was largely driven by better-than-expected license fees and greater cost control as well as roughly $10 million of timing and unique items that offset the impact of lower-than-expected RevPAR.

我們的業績在很大程度上是由好於預期的許可費用和更好的成本控制以及大約 1000 萬美元的時間和獨特項目抵消了低於預期的 RevPAR 的影響所推動的。

In the quarter, management and franchise fees increased 5% to $558 million, achieving the high end of our expected range as strong net unit growth and better performance from our co-brand program offset softer top line performance.

本季度，管理和特許經營費增長了 5%，達到 5.58 億美元，達到了我們預期範圍的高端，因為強勁的淨單位增長和我們的聯合品牌計劃的更好業績抵消了疲軟的營收業績。

Diluted earnings per share adjusted for special items of $1 also beat expectations.

特殊項目調整後的稀釋每股收益為 1 美元，也超出了預期。

Turning to our regional performance and outlook.

轉向我們的區域業績和前景。

Fourth quarter comparable U.S. RevPAR fell 80 basis points as softer corporate spending pressured business transient.

由於企業支出疲軟給業務瞬態帶來壓力，第四季美國可比 RevPAR 下降了 80 個基點。

For full year 2019, U.S. RevPAR grew 70 basis points as solid market share gains and good group performance were somewhat tempered by weak business transient trends in the latter half of the year.

2019 年全年，美國每間可出租客房收入增長了 70 個基點，因為下半年疲軟的業務瞬態趨勢在一定程度上削弱了穩固的市場份額增長和良好的集團業績。

For full year 2020, we forecast U.S. RevPAR growth consistent with our system-wide guidance given the expectation for relatively steady macro trends.

鑑於宏觀趨勢相對穩定的預期，我們對 2020 年全年的美國 RevPAR 成長預測與我們的全系統指引一致。

In the Americas outside the U.S., fourth quarter RevPAR fell 3.2% versus the prior year largely driven by business transient weakness across Canada and Mexico.

在美國以外的美洲地區，第四季每間可用客房收入較上年同期下降 3.2%，主要是由於加拿大和墨西哥的業務暫時疲軟所致。

For full year 2019, RevPAR grew 1% driven by solid trends across South America and strong tourism in Jamaica and the Dominican Republic.

2019 年全年，在南美洲的穩健趨勢以及牙買加和多明尼加共和國旅遊業的強勁推動下，每間客房收入增長了 1%。

For full year 2020, we expect RevPAR in the region to increase in the low to mid-single-digit range largely driven by better-than-expected economic growth in Mexico and solid trends in Canada.

2020 年全年，我們預計該地區的 RevPAR 將在中低個位數範圍內成長，這主要是由墨西哥好於預期的經濟成長和加拿大的穩健趨勢所推動的。

RevPAR in Europe grew 1.4% in the quarter led by continued growth across Continental Europe with particular strength in Turkey but somewhat moderated by softer transient demand in the U.K. For the full year, RevPAR in Europe grew in line with our expectations, increasing 3%, largely driven by solid group and leisure transient gains across Continental Europe and good international inbound to London.

本季歐洲每間可出租客房收入成長了1.4%，主要得益於歐洲大陸的持續成長，尤其是土耳其的強勁成長，但由於英國短暫需求疲軟而放緩。出租客房收入的成長符合我們的預期，成長了3%。

We expect full year 2020 RevPAR growth in Europe to be in the low single-digit range with steady trends across Continental Europe, partially offset by lingering uncertainty surrounding the next phase of Brexit.

我們預計2020 年全年歐洲每間可用收入(RevPAR) 的成長將處於較低的個位數範圍內，整個歐洲大陸的趨勢將保持穩定，但下一階段英國脫歐的揮之不去的不確定性將部分抵消這一趨勢。

In the Middle East and Africa region, RevPAR was down 4.3% in the quarter as political tensions in Lebanon and supply growth in the UAE continued to pressure rate.

在中東和非洲地區，由於黎巴嫩的政治緊張局勢和阿聯酋的供應成長繼續給房價帶來壓力，本季每間可用收入下降了 4.3%。

For the full year, RevPAR was down 3% in the region largely due to outsized supply growth.

該地區全年的 RevPAR 下降了 3%，這主要是由於供應量增長過快。

For full year 2020, we expect RevPAR in the region to increase in the low single-digit range.

2020 年全年，我們預計該地區的 RevPAR 將在較低的個位數範圍內成長。

In the Asia Pacific region, RevPAR fell 3.8% in the quarter with RevPAR in China declining 7.8% due to the continued slowdown in leisure travel and ongoing protests in Hong Kong.

在亞太地區，本季每間可用房收入下降了 3.8%，其中中國的每間可用房收入下降了 7.8%，原因是休閒旅遊持續放緩和香港持續的抗議活動。

For full year 2019, RevPAR in the Asia Pacific region was down 0.9% driven by softening economic trends in China, trade tensions and the Hong Kong protests.

2019 年全年，由於中國經濟趨勢疲軟、貿易緊張局勢和香港抗議活動，亞太地區的每間可用客房收入下降了 0.9%。

RevPAR in China fell 3.2% for full year 2019.

2019 年全年中國每間可用客房收入下降 3.2%。

For full year 2020, unaffected by the coronavirus, our RevPAR growth expectations for the Asia Pacific region would be in line with our system-wide guidance with the benefit from the Summer Olympics in Tokyo offsetting continued weakness in China.

2020 年全年，在不受冠狀病毒影響的情況下，我們對亞太地區的 RevPAR 成長預期將符合我們的全系統指導，東京夏季奧運的好處抵消了中國的持續疲軟。

As the coronavirus situation continues to play out, we will try to give you more specific details of its effect on regional performance.

隨著冠狀病毒疫情的持續發展，我們將盡力為您提供有關其對地區業績影響的更具體細節。

But for now, we'll stick to giving you our preliminary enterprise-wide thoughts based on the assumptions that Chris laid out earlier.

但目前，我們將堅持根據克里斯先前提出的假設向您提供我們初步的企業範圍想法。

Moving to guidance for full year 2020 on an unaffected basis, we expect RevPAR growth of 0% to 1% and adjusted EBITDA of $2.42 billion to $2.47 billion.

在不受影響的基礎上轉向 2020 年全年指引，我們預計 RevPAR 將成長 0% 至 1%，調整後 EBITDA 為 24.2 億美元至 24.7 億美元。

We forecast diluted EPS adjusted for special items of $4.08 to $4.21.

我們預計特殊項目調整後的攤薄每股收益為 4.08 美元至 4.21 美元。

For the first quarter on an unaffected basis, we expect system-wide RevPAR growth to be roughly flat.

在不受影響的情況下，我們預計第一季全系統 RevPAR 成長將大致持平。

We expect adjusted EBITDA of $520 million to $540 million and diluted EPS adjusted for special items of $0.85 to $0.91.

我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 為 5.2 億至 5.4 億美元，特殊項目調整後的稀釋每股收益為 0.85 至 0.91 美元。

Our preliminary view of the potential impact of the coronavirus in the first quarter, again, assuming our closed hotels are ultimately noncomp, is that there could be a roughly 100 to 150 basis point drag on system-wide RevPAR growth and a $10 million to $20 million impact to adjusted EBITDA in the quarter.

我們對第一季冠狀病毒潛在影響的初步看法是，假設我們關閉的酒店最終沒有盈利，整個系統的RevPAR 增長可能會受到大約100 到150 個基點的拖累，並且可能會出現1000 萬到20 美元的損失。

Please note that our guidance ranges do not incorporate future share repurchases.

請注意，我們的指導範圍不包括未來的股票回購。

Moving on to capital return.

轉向資本回報。

We paid a cash dividend of $0.15 per share during the fourth quarter for a total of $172 million in dividends for the year.

我們在第四季度支付了每股 0.15 美元的現金股息，全年股息總額為 1.72 億美元。

For the full year 2019, we returned over $1.7 billion to shareholders in the form of buybacks and dividends.

2019 年全年，我們以回購和股利的形式向股東返還超過 17 億美元。

In the first quarter, our Board authorized a quarterly cash dividend of $0.15 per share.

第一季度，我們的董事會批准了每股 0.15 美元的季度現金股利。

For 2020, we expect to return between $1.6 billion and $2 billion to shareholders in the form of buybacks and dividends.

2020 年，我們預計將以回購和股利的形式向股東回報 16 億至 20 億美元。

Further details on our fourth quarter and full year results and our latest guidance ranges can be found in the earnings release we issued earlier this morning.

有關我們第四季度和全年業績以及最新指導範圍的更多詳細信息，請參閱我們今天早上發布的收益報告。

This completes our prepared remarks.

我們準備好的演講到此結束。

We would now like to open the line for any questions you may have.

我們現在願意為您解答任何問題。

Chad, can we have our first question, please?

查德，我們可以問第一個問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions) And our first question will come from Shaun Kelley with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自美國銀行的 Shaun Kelley。

Thank you for all the color on sort of the coronavirus and sort of your expectations.

感謝您對冠狀病毒的所有關注以及您的期望。

We understand it's very, very early there.

我們知道現在還非常非常早。

But maybe you could just help us unpack.

但也許你可以幫我們打開行李。

I think as we've received some questions about it, I think people are just sort of looking for some of the color on maybe each of the components.

我認為，當我們收到一些有關它的問題時，我認為人們只是在尋找每個組件上的一些顏色。

I think you're very clear on RevPAR.

我認為您對 RevPAR 非常清楚。

But could you help us understand maybe what you're just seeing on the ground as it relates to the development delays?

但是您能否幫助我們了解您在實地看到的情況與開發延遲有關？

And do you -- it sounds like you think you can stay within the 6% to 7% guidance on NUG, even possibly including some of those delays, but maybe just talk a little bit about that assumption a little bit more.

你呢——聽起來你認為你可以保持在 NUG 的 6% 到 7% 指導範圍內，甚至可能包括其中一些延遲，但也許只是多談論一下這個假設。

Yes.

是的。

Maybe to take your last -- the part of -- the last part of the question first, yes, that was what I said in my prepared comments.

也許首先考慮你的最後一部分——問題的最後一部分，是的，這就是我在準備好的評論中所說的。

I mean in terms of net unit growth, I mean, obviously, early days.

我的意思是就淨單位成長而言，我的意思顯然是早期。

But you may think about it this way.

但你可以這樣想。

0.5 point, which is what we've sort of said, we think the impact will be would be half -- roughly half our deliveries in China.

0.5個點，這就是我們所說的，我們認為影響將是一半——大約是我們在中國的交付量的一半。

If you took 100% of the deliveries out, put it in perspective, it would be a point.

如果你把100%的交付拿出來，從長遠來看，這就是一個點。

We do not think that will happen.

我們認為這種情況不會發生。

We've already delivered 1,500-plus rooms in China this year.

今年我們已在中國交付了 1,500 多間客房。

We opened a hotel yesterday.

我們昨天開了一家旅館。

There are parts of China that are still business as usual in terms of deliveries.

中國部分地區的交貨情況仍照常進行。

So we do think that the 0.5 point is reasonable to maybe conservative and is largely within the bounds of our 6% to 7%.

因此，我們確實認為 0.5 個百分點是合理的，甚至可能是保守的，並且在很大程度上在我們 6% 到 7% 的範圍內。

In terms of the broader assumptions, again, I can't stress enough that this is really preliminary, that this is a sort of evolving situation.

就更廣泛的假設而言，我再次強調，這確實是初步的，這是一種不斷發展的情況。

We're reporting at a time where we know a bunch, but not that much relative to where this thing is going.

我們在報道的時候我們已經了解了很多，但與事情的發展方向關係不大。

But we thought the only responsible thing to do was to sort of look at historical perspective and give everybody the best sense that we have and use science around the data that we have.

但我們認為，唯一負責任的做法就是從歷史的角度來看，讓每個人對我們擁有的最好的感覺，並圍繞我們擁有的數據使用科學。

So as we said briefly in the comments, what we looked at is sort of in a range of outcomes, 3 to 6 months of escalation and impact from the outbreak.

正如我們在評論中簡要指出的那樣，我們關注的是一系列結果、3 至 6 個月的升級以及疫情爆發的影響。

And then these things don't turn around typically overnight, another 3 to 6 months on recovery.

這些事情通常不會在一夜之間扭轉，還需要 3 到 6 個月的時間才能恢復。

So essentially, a 6- to 12-month period of time.

所以基本上是 6 到 12 個月的時間段。

And if you look at SARS and other things, again, this may play out entirely differently and we don't know.

如果你再看看SARS和其他事情，結果可能會完全不同，而我們不知道。

But if you look at prior history in the industry and impact, those seem to be sort of reasonable guardrails for how we see it today, and that's how we develop those.

但如果你看看這個行業之前的歷史和影響，這些似乎是我們今天如何看待它的合理護欄，這就是我們開發這些護欄的方式。

And that is a holistic view when we gave you those numbers.

當我們向您提供這些數字時，這是一個整體視圖。

It involves the impact that would ripple through from NUG.

它涉及 NUG 帶來的連鎖反應。

As I've talked about, it involves the impact in China, both for closures and lesser business.

正如我所談到的，這涉及到對中國的影響，包括關閉和業務減少。

It involves outbound business leaving China, and it incorporates all of that as, again, as scientifically as we can into the outputs.

它涉及離開中國的出境業務，並且再次盡可能科學地將所有這些納入產出中。

I mean keeping in mind a couple of other stats, and then I'll park it, and I'm sure there'll be other questions that China represents China -- in China for us, 2.7% of the overall EBITDA of the company.

我的意思是記住其他一些統計數據，然後我將其擱置，我確信還會有其他問題，中國代表中國——在中國，對我們來說，占公司整體 EBITDA 的 2.7% 。

If you look at system-wide revenues outside of China, it represents about 0.7% of system-wide revenues.

如果你看看中國以外的全系統收入，它約佔全系統收入的 0.7%。

In the United States, it represents about 0.2% of U.S. system-wide revenues, just to give context and perspective.

在美國，它約占美國全系統收入的 0.2%，僅供參考。

Our next question comes from Stephen Grambling with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的史蒂芬·格蘭布林。

Maybe changing gears to something a little bit more long term or strategic.

也許會轉向一些更長期或更具戰略意義的事情。

Can you talk about your thought process as you build out some of the partnerships in the loyalty program and perhaps also provide a bit more color on how you're currently leveraging the customer data that you have from the program as you think about marketing, personalization, et cetera?

您能否談談您在忠誠度計劃中建立一些合作夥伴關係時的思維過程，也許還可以提供更多關於您目前在考慮營銷、個性化時如何利用從該計劃中獲得的客戶數據的信息，等等？

Yes.

是的。

I think without diving too deeply into things that are competitive.

我認為不要太深入地研究有競爭力的事情。

I would say, at a high level, and much of this I've talked about, what we're trying to do is build a program where we can not only get membership up but get a higher level of engagement.

我想說，在高層次上，我已經談到了很多內容，我們正在努力做的是建立一個計劃，我們不僅可以增加會員數量，還可以提高參與度。

And that level of engagement, as we look at it and I look at it, is not just about our highest tier members, which, of course, we want to keep super engaged, but getting engagement throughout the entire ecosystem.

正如我們和我所看到的那樣，這種參與度不僅涉及我們的最高層會員（當然，我們希望保持超級參與度），還涉及整個生態系統的參與。

Because in the end, what we're trying to do across the entire ecosystem is build direct relationships because ultimately, we know that it's a better experience for our customers, and it's better for our owners because it lowers our distribution costs.

因為最終，我們在整個生態系統中試圖做的是建立直接關係，因為最終我們知道這對我們的客戶來說是更好的體驗，對我們的所有者來說也更好，因為它降低了我們的分銷成本。

And so we've had a bunch of different things.

所以我們有很多不同的事情。

These partnerships are part of it.

這些夥伴關係是其中的一部分。

But I think if you started at the top of the order, it first has been, and this is -- was done a few years ago, about creating the best value.

但我認為，如果你從訂單的頂部開始，它首先是，而且這是幾年前完成的，關於創造最佳價值。

So when you're an Honors member, you get the best price.

因此，當您成為榮譽會員時，您將獲得最優惠的價格。

When you're an Honors member, you get the best value, meaning that your points have real value.

當您成為榮譽會員時，您將獲得最大的價值，這意味著您的積分具有真正的價值。

Whether you're a gold or a diamond, at the highest levels, they obviously have value, but making sure that we have lower-tier members engaged as well.

無論您是黃金會員還是鑽石會員，在最高級別，它們顯然都具有價值，但請確保我們也有較低級別的會員參與。

And that -- when you think about our Amazon deal, which I didn't talk about today, but we have in the past, about the Lyft earn and burn, about Live Nation, being able to buy tickets on Ticketmaster, suddenly, you have things that -- you have relationships that allow all members to be engaged with us.

當你想到我們與亞馬遜的交易時，我今天沒有談論，但我們過去有過，關於 Lyft 的賺錢和燒錢，關於 Live Nation，關於能夠在 Ticketmaster 上購買門票，突然間，你擁有讓所有成員都能與我們互動的關係。

And when they're buying things using our points, whether it's nail clippers or diapers on Amazon or a ticket to go to a concert, it reminds them of why the relationship with Hilton matters and it -- and we know that it drives more loyalty and repeat business.

當他們使用我們的積分購買東西時，無論是亞馬遜上的指甲刀或尿布，還是去音樂會的門票，這都會提醒他們為什麼與希爾頓的關係如此重要，而且我們知道這會提高忠誠度並重複業務。

The other things that we're trying to do with Live Nation and others is once in a lifetime experiences, particularly for our most loyal members, things that they just -- money can't buy.

我們試圖與 Live Nation 和其他人一起做的其他事情是一生一次的體驗，特別是對於我們最忠實的會員來說，這是金錢買不到的。

And then technology, when we think about digital key, digital check-in, room selection, connected room and a whole bunch of other things that we're doing on the innovation side of technology, it's about not only just giving them the best price, the best value, but then making sure that our Honors members are getting the best experience and that we're using, to answer your question, we're using all of the data that we're getting in how we interact with them in every element of their stay to personalize and customize what they want, the room types they want, where they want to be in a building, what they -- what their preferences are in food and beverage, how they interact with the outside environment -- how they interact with the inside environment of the hotel and the outside environment of the hotel.

然後是技術，當我們考慮數位鑰匙、數位入住、房間選擇、連網房間以及我們在技術創新方面所做的一大堆其他事情時，這不僅僅是給他們最優惠的價格，最佳價值，但隨後確保我們的榮譽會員獲得最佳體驗，並且我們正在使用我們在與他們互動時獲得的所有數據來回答您的問題他們住宿的每一個元素都可以個性化和定制他們想要的東西、他們想要的房間類型、他們想要在建築物中的什麼位置、他們對食物和飲料的偏好、他們如何與外部環境互動——他們如何與酒店內部環境和酒店外部環境互動。

So we're broadly starting to really harness all of the data to ultimately personalize at mass scale experiences that we think will continue to build loyalty.

因此，我們廣泛地開始真正利用所有數據，最終實現大規模個人化體驗，我們認為這將繼續建立忠誠度。

So again, this is -- the thing that we've been really crazy focused on really over the last 5 years, in particular, is engagement across the whole ecosystem.

再說一次，這是我們在過去 5 年裡真正瘋狂關注的事情，特別是整個生態系統的參與。

And so when you look at our 100-plus million members, over half of those members and growing are engaged.

因此，當您查看我們的 1 億多名會員時，您會發現其中超過一半的會員以及不斷增加的會員都參與其中。

So that means, by definition, we have a whole bunch of lower-tier members that are engaged with us, meaning they are buying rooms from us.

因此，根據定義，這意味著我們有一大堆低層會員與我們合作，這意味著他們正在從我們這裡購買房間。

And we know when they become an Honors member that it's high-90s percent of the time that they buy directly through us and thus, help us keep distribution costs as efficient as possible.

我們知道，當他們成為榮譽會員時，90% 的時間他們直接透過我們購買，幫助我們盡可能保持分銷成本高效。

That's great color.

那顏色真棒。

As an unrelated follow-up on the pipeline, I think one of the consistent concerns that comes up in investor conversations has been, is there a point where RevPAR softening leads to softer development and unit growth.

作為管道的一個不相關的後續行動，我認為投資者對話中出現的一致擔憂之一是，RevPAR 疲軟是否會導致開發和單位成長放緩。

As you have conversations and see underlying financials of your owners, how do you assess the stability and strength of their financial returns, both relative to history and perhaps also to other forms of real estate?

當您進行對話並了解所有者的基本財務狀況時，您如何評估他們的財務回報的穩定性和強度，無論是相對於歷史還是其他形式的房地產？

I feel pretty good about it.

我對此感覺很好。

I mean here's the thing.

我的意思是事情是這樣的。

This is where having the best brands in the business matter.

這就是擁有業界最佳品牌的重要性。

We talk a lot about market share.

我們談論了很多關於市場份額的問題。

What matters most to developers is absolute market share because that's what drives revenues for them when they build a new property, and we have the highest by a long stretch average market share of anybody in the industry.

對於開發商來說，最重要的是絕對市場份額，因為這是他們建造新房產時推動收入的因素，而我們長期以來擁有業內最高的平均市場份額。

So what's happening is we are getting a disproportionate amount of development even when it is difficult in an environment like the U.S. where costs have gone up, cost of financing, cost to build, RevPARs are tepid, we are still ultimately doing pretty well.

因此，即使在像美國這樣成本上升、融資成本、建設成本、每間可用客房收入不溫不火的環境中很難，我們仍然獲得了不成比例的開發量，但我們最終仍然做得很好。

I mean our starts -- while signings have continued since 2016 to go down, starts actually had been going down and flipped around in the U.S., using that as an example.

我的意思是我們的開工率——雖然自 2016 年以來簽約數量持續下降，但以美國為例，開工率實際上一直在下降並出現逆轉。

We were up about 13% in starts in the U.S., which I think is a testament to the fact that our brands are performing well enough where we're getting a disproportionate -- even though it's a smaller pool, we're getting a bigger piece of a smaller pool.

我們在美國的首發數量增長了約13%，我認為這證明了這樣一個事實：我們的品牌在我們獲得不成比例的情況下表現得足夠好——儘管池子較小，但我們正在獲得更大的數量較小水池的一部分。

The other thing I'd say that's a really important note is the world is a big place.

我要說的另一件事非常重要，那就是世界很大。

I mean the reason we gave the stats on what we've done over 10 years and what we've done over 5 years is to give sort of a little context for the fact that during that time frame, we went through the Great Recession, we've had all sorts of good and bad things happening over that time frame.

我的意思是，我們給出 10 年來和 5 年來所做的統計數據的原因是為了提供一些背景信息，說明在這段時間內，我們經歷了大衰退，在那段時間裡，我們發生了各種各樣的好事和壞事。

Yet we have always been able to sort of pivot and find the pockets of demand and where capital is available to continue to grow and grow in a way that our owners are profiting.

然而，我們始終能夠調整方向，找到需求的領域，以及可利用的資本，以我們的所有者獲利的方式繼續成長和成長。

But also, we're continuing to build our network effect so that we're continuing to strengthen our overall ecosystem for our customers.

而且，我們正在繼續建立我們的網路效應，以便我們繼續為客戶加強我們的整體生態系統。

And so the world is a big place.

所以世界是一個很大的地方。

The U.S. has been in a slowing mode in development.

美國的發展一直處於放緩狀態。

We've been doing fine, but it has been slowing.

我們一直做得很好，但速度一直在放緩。

I suspect, in a low growth environment, that will continue to happen.

我懷疑，在低成長環境下，這種情況將會繼續發生。

I suspect we'll continue to get a disproportionate share of it if we do our job, and we intend to.

我懷疑，如果我們做好我們的工作，我們將繼續獲得不成比例的份額，而且我們打算這樣做。

But the world is a big place, and we're -- we continue every year.

但世界很大，我們每年都在繼續。

That's why we point out, sign more deals, start more deals and ultimately deliver more deals because we have an ability, with being a big global business and with brands that are performing equally well around the world and relationships that are very deep around the world, to pivot and be strategic about where we're going and who we're going with.

這就是為什麼我們指出，簽署更多交易，啟動更多交易並最終交付更多交易，因為我們有能力，作為一家大型全球企業，擁有在世界各地表現同樣出色的品牌以及在世界各地非常深厚的關係，對我們要去的地方以及我們與誰一起去進行戰略調整。

The next question comes from Joe Greff with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的喬·格雷夫。

We'll move on to our next question, and that's from Carlo Santarelli with Deutsche Bank.

我們將繼續討論下一個問題，這是由德意志銀行的 Carlo Santarelli 提出的。

For starters, Kevin, maybe you'd be able to discuss a little bit.

首先，凱文，也許你可以討論一下。

Could you talk a little bit about the lower expectations for G&A as we look out to 2020, kind of what's driving that?

您能否談談我們展望 2020 年時對一般行政費用的較低預期，是什麼推動了這種情況？

If I recall, 2019 was flattish on that line.

如果我沒記錯的話，2019 年在這條線上表現平平。

Yes.

是的。

I think, Carlo, if you look at -- I mean I think about it as sort of midpoint of prior guidance relative to midpoint of future.

我想，卡洛，如果你看一下——我的意思是，我認為它是相對於未來中點的先前指導的中點。

So first of all, it's just, I think, better cost control.

首先，我認為這只是更好的成本控制。

We do a pretty good job in the business of being disciplined about costs.

我們在成本紀律方面做得非常好。

And at its core, next year versus this year is about better cost control.

與今年相比，明年的核心是更好的成本控制。

And we did have some -- a couple of -- a few unique items that pushed 2019 up to the high end of our previously reported guidance range.

我們確實有一些——幾個——一些獨特的項目將 2019 年推至我們之前報告的指導範圍的高端。

And those are noncash and nonrecurring, so they're not going to repeat next year, which gives us a bit of a headwind.

這些都是非現金和非經常性的，所以明年不會重複，這給我們帶來了一些阻力。

It's not more -- not much more complicated than that.

並不比這更複雜。

Great.

偉大的。

And then just one other on kind of the pipeline or the net unit growth in 2019.

然後是關於 2019 年管道類型或淨單位增長的另一項。

Are you guys able to provide any color on kind of the split between new units relative to conversions both in the U.S. or primarily in the U.S.?

你們能否提供有關美國或主要在美國的新單位相對於轉換的劃分的任何顏色？

I mean the way I would look at it is most of the conversions occur in the U.S., not all but most.

我的意思是，我看待它的方式是，大多數轉變發生在美國，不是全部，而是大多數。

And it was roughly 80-20 new units versus conversions, which is what it's been for the last few years.

過去幾年，新增單位與改造單位的比例約為 80-20 個。

The next question is from Harry Curtis with Instinet.

下一個問題來自 Instinet 的 Harry Curtis。

Just a quick follow up on the domestic development pipeline.

只是對國內開發管道的快速跟進。

As you travel around the country and look at the age and relevance and competitiveness of some of the older hotels in the bigger markets, what I'm wondering is the 70% of your pipeline being international.

當您環遊全國並查看較大市場中一些較舊酒店的歷史、相關性和競爭力時，我想知道您的酒店 70% 是國際酒店。

In the U.S., is it not an opportunity to -- given the age of these competitive hotels to begin focusing on that as a development opportunity?

在美國，考慮到這些具有競爭力的酒店的年齡，這不是一個機會，可以開始將其視為一個發展機會嗎？

What are the returns there to the owners?

業主能得到什麼回報？

Yes.

是的。

That's a great question.

這是一個很好的問題。

And the answer is yes.

答案是肯定的。

And that is not something that we have missed.

我們並沒有錯過這一點。

We've been focused on it, I'd say, in a couple of primary ways and a bunch of other ancillary ways.

我想說，我們一直在以幾種主要方式和許多其他輔助方式關注它。

The first is in conversions, which, as the operating environment gets more difficult, as I've said, lots of different times, I think it provides a bigger and bigger opportunity for people to want to come into our system because they get higher market share, they can reduce cost because we have ability with our system size and strength to drive better distribution costs and the like.

第一個是轉換，隨著操作環境變得更加困難，正如我所說的，很多不同的時間，我認為這為人們想要進入我們的系統提供了越來越大的機會，因為他們獲得了更高的市場分享，他們可以降低成本，因為我們有能力利用我們的系統規模和實力來推動更好的分銷成本等。

So that is one way where we can continue to grow, even when there may be lesser new construction.

因此，這是我們能夠繼續成長的一種方式，即使新建築數量可能較少。

The other that involves new construction -- the other major way are some of the new brands that we've developed that I think are, in a sense, category killers.

另一種涉及新建設——另一種主要方式是我們開發的一些新品牌，我認為從某種意義上來說，它們是品類殺手。

I think Tru being the greatest example of that where we've launched it a couple of years ago.

我認為 Tru 是我們幾年前推出的最好的例子。

We have over 100 hotels opened, another 350, 400 in the pipeline.

我們已經開業了 100 多家酒店，另有 350 家、400 家酒店正在籌備中。

It is like a rocket ship.

它就像一艘火箭飛船。

And the answer to the question of why is because of what you're saying.

為什麼這個問題的答案是因為你所說的話。

It is competing in a category where the bulk of the product, with all respect to its comp set, are older hotels that are not relevant to today's customers' needs.

在它所競爭的類別中，大部分產品（就其競爭對手而言）都是老舊的酒店，與當今客戶的需求無關。

And so that, to a degree, by the way, we are trying to do in a whole bunch of different segments.

因此，順便說一句，在某種程度上，我們正​​在嘗試在一大堆不同的細分市場中開展工作。

I think if you look at Tempo, to a degree, there is a bit of that.

我想如果你看看 Tempo，在某種程度上，你會發現其中有一點。

We think that product is something that is very unique to the market.

我們認為該產品對於市場來說是非常獨特的。

I think Tru, in terms of the scale of opportunity and the cost of entry and how it's -- disproportionate market share to the competition in this environment, which is a tougher environment, provide, certainly in the U.S. context, the biggest opportunity.

我認為，就機會的規模和進入成本而言，以及在這種更加艱難的環境中與競爭不成比例的市場份額，Tru 提供了（當然在美國的背景下）最大的機會。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

A quick follow-up.

快速跟進。

Going back to your business transient demand, particularly domestically, what do you think is holding back CEOs at this point now that we're looking at least the early innings of a trade deal, eventually, the coronavirus is going to recede from the CNN and Fox headlines?

回到你的業務短暫需求，特別是國內需求，你認為目前是什麼阻礙了首席執行官們，因為我們至少正在關注貿易協議的早期階段，最終，冠狀病毒將從 CNN 中消失，福克斯頭條？

Do you think it's concern about the election, where we are in the economic cycle?

您認為這是對選舉的擔憂嗎？

Is there some scenario that you can think of that lifts this business transient demand?

您是否可以想到一些場景來提升該業務的臨時需求？

Yes.

是的。

I think it's a bunch of things.

我認為這是一堆事情。

First of all, I'd say the way those things work is people make budgets in the fall of prior year on how much they're going to spend in CapEx and how much hiring they're going to do.

首先，我想說這些事情的運作方式是人們在前一年的秋天製定預算，了解他們將在資本支出上花費多少以及他們將進行多少招聘。

And it's not that the -- and how much travel sort of has a knock-on effect that, that will occur.

這並不是說——以及多少旅行會產生連鎖反應，這種情況將會發生。

And it's not that they never change those, and it's not that travel is their biggest line in the expense category, but it is a line.

這並不是說他們永遠不會改變這些，也不是說旅行是他們在費用類別中最大的一條線，但它是一條線。

But they traditionally don't change them quickly, and they certainly don't change it that typically early in the year -- very early in the year.

但他們傳統上不會很快改變它們，而且他們當然不會通常在年初——非常早的時候改變它。

So I think, to a degree, if you think about when things got budgeted, right, the things that you described were not resolved, right?

所以我認為，在某種程度上，如果你想想事情是什麼時候制定預算的，對吧，你所描述的事情還沒有解決，對吧？

You were in the middle of a trade war, election uncertainty, global uncertainty generally, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.

你正處於貿易戰、選舉不確定性、全球整體不確定性等等之中。

So I think it takes a little time to sort of work its way through.

所以我認為需要一點時間來完成工作。

There are obviously -- not to pick on the negatives, there are some other uncertainties.

顯然，除了負面因素之外，還有其他一些不確定因素。

We're in an election cycle, and the outcomes are broad.

我們正處於選舉週期，其結果是廣泛的。

And I think there's some concern about that.

我認為對此有些擔憂。

And coronavirus, well, our belief is that most -- the countries around the world, including China, are being quite responsible, and it will be managed.

對於冠狀病毒，我們相信，包括中國在內的世界上大多數國家都非常負責任，並且會受到控制。

It is a risk.

這是一個風險。

And so I think you take sort of the combination of budget seasons where it was greater if things stabilize but a few other risks.

因此，我認為你可以考慮預算季節的組合，如果情況穩定，但還有一些其他風險，情況會更好。

And I think it has made for sort of the business transient growth to be tepid.

我認為這導致了業務的短暫成長不溫不火。

Now here's the thing, and I want to be really clear that I don't want to get ahead of myself, right, in the sense that it's early in the year and it's hard to know.

現在事情是這樣的，我想非常清楚地表明，我不想超前，對吧，因為現在還處於年初，很難知道。

But I would say even over the last few weeks, like, as I sat here, yesterday, getting my weekly update from our -- at our executive committee meeting, over the last 2 or 3 weeks, we have started to see in terms of advanced bookings, which are -- and business transient are all short term.

但我想說，即使在過去的幾周里，就像我昨天坐在這裡，在我們的執行委員會會議上獲得每週更新一樣，在過去的兩三週裡，我們已經開始看到提前預訂和臨時商務都是短期的。

But real time, we have finally started to see those come back to life.

但實際上，我們終於開始看到它們復活了。

They were very anemic, and we've now started to see advanced booking growth come back.

他們非常疲軟，我們現在開始看到提前預訂成長回來了。

That's a few weeks of data.

這是幾週的數據。

Again, I don't -- I want to emphasize that, but that might be a consequence again of, on a lag effect, people starting to settle down a bit.

再說一次，我不想——我想強調這一點，但這可能是由於滯後效應，人們開始稍微安定下來的結果。

I think when you look at the segments for the year, Harry and others, I mean, I think we still would believe, as I said in my prepared comments, that given where group position is and given the strength of the consumer that those will lead the charge and be above business transient.

我認為，當你看看今年的細分市場時，哈利和其他人，我的意思是，我認為我們仍然會相信，正如我在準備好的評論中所說的那樣，考慮到集團的地位以及消費者的實力，這些將引領潮流，超越業務瞬態。

But we do think all segments, it will be in a low rate, but all segments will grow.

但我們確實認為所有細分市場的成長率都將較低，但所有細分市場都會成長。

And we have a little -- we're hopeful that business transient -- we're seeing some early signs, and we are hopeful that those are sustained.

我們有一點——我們希望業務會短暫——我們看到了一些早期跡象，我們希望這些跡象能夠持續下去。

The next question will move back to Joe Greff with JPMorgan.

下一個問題將回到摩根大通的喬·格雷夫。

Can you hear me now?

現在你能聽到我說話嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

You're there.

你就在那裡。

Welcome.

歡迎。

I was going to ask you, Chris, about how you view U.S. corporate transient, but I think you just answered there, but I did hear you that you would expect that to post some positive growth in 2020.

克里斯，我本來想問你如何看待美國企業的瞬態，但我認為你只是回答了這個問題，但我確實聽到你預計美國企業在 2020 年會出現一些積極的增長。

We would, yes, modest.

是的，我們會謙虛。

And then, again, hopeful that -- we're at the beginning stages, a little bit more pickup.

然後，再次希望──我們正處於開始階段，會有所進步。

But I don't want to get ahead of myself, and we'll obviously update you as the year goes on.

但我不想操之過急，隨著時間的推移，我們顯然會向您通報最新情況。

Yes.

是的。

I appreciate that.

我很欣賞這一點。

And then when you look at last year, what percentage of your new signings were hotels in China?

然後，當你看看去年時，你的新簽約酒店中有多少比例是中國的酒店？

I would -- that's a good question.

我會——這是一個很好的問題。

I would say 20, in the 20s.

我會說20，20多歲。

High teens.

高青少年。

Yes, yes.

是的，是的。

Okay.

好的。

And I know Hilton, back in the SARS days, was a different company with different management running it.

我知道，在非典時期，希爾頓是一家不同的公司，由不同的管理階層管理。

When you go back and maybe look at SARS as maybe some sort of, I don't know, case study, and this is more from the development side, did you -- to the extent you've done this, was the rebound in signings coterminous with the rebound in operating demand trends?

當你回過頭來，也許將 SARS 視為某種我不知道的案例研究，這更多是從發展方面來看，你是否——就你所做的而言，是不是出現了反彈？與營運需求同步回升趨勢如何？

Or was there some sort of lead or lag one versus the other?

或者兩者之間是否存在某種領先或滯後？

It was pretty consistent.

這是非常一致的。

Again, different world, different time.

再說一遍，不同的世界，不同的時間。

China was an entirely different sort of marketplace.

中國是一個完全不同的市場。

But they all sort of coincident and at the same time started to recover, and they recovered reasonably rapidly.

但他們都有點巧合，同時開始恢復，而且恢復得相當快。

The next question comes from Smedes Rose with Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Smedes Rose。

I wanted to ask you 2 quick questions.

我想問你兩個簡單的問題。

The first is when you look at the gap in Tru and Hampton, it stands at about $15, but we continue to see outsized growth in Tru and kind of flattish for Hampton.

首先，當你觀察 Tru 和 Hampton 的差距時，會發現其差距約為 15 美元，但我們仍然看到 Tru 的大幅成長，而 Hampton 的成長則持平。

And how much compression do you think between those brands you will see?

您認為您將看到的這些品牌之間的壓縮程度是多少？

And does it have longer-term ramifications for Hampton Inn owners?

它對漢普頓酒店業主有長期影響嗎？

Is there cannibalization going on?

是否存在蠶食現象？

Or are there other factors just driving the different (inaudible)?

或者是否有其他因素導致了不同（聽不清楚）？

I know -- I mean I'm sure there's a market where you could find an owner would say we're competing -- they're competing with -- between Tru and Hampton.

我知道——我的意思是我確信有一個市場，你可以找到一個老闆會說我們正在競爭——他們正在競爭——特魯和漢普頓之間。

But when we look at the aggregate data and we literally look at every market, because Tru is not so big that we can, I don't think we're seeing any cannibalization.

但當我們查看匯總數據時，我們實際上會查看每個市場，因為 Tru 還沒有大到我們可以做到的程度，我認為我們沒有看到任何蠶食。

The price point between them is still 15% to 20% when you look at it.

如果你看的話，它們之間的價格點仍然是15%到20%。

When you look at the growth rate, what's happening, if you have Hampton that is a very high market share, it's just at a point where it's very -- you're talking about 120.

當你看看成長率時，會發生什麼，如果漢普頓的市場份額非常高，那麼它就在一個非常高的點——你正在談論 120。

And Tru is performing unbelievably well, but it's still ramping up.

Tru 的表現令人難以置信，而且還在不斷提升。

I mean it only has 113 hotels.

我的意思是它只有 113 家酒店。

It's a very new brand.

這是一個非常新的品牌。

And while it's way outperforming the competition, it is not performing at that level.

雖然它的表現遠遠優於競爭對手，但它的表現還沒有達到那個水準。

And so that's what's going on.

這就是正在發生的事情。

There's still a good spread.

還是有很好的傳播性的。

We think there will continue to be a good spread.

我們認為將繼續保持良好的價差。

These are attracting some similar customers, but the bulk of the customers that are being attracted are as intended, that those that want a little bit bigger room and are willing to pay a little bit more are back -- are in Hampton Inn and a little -- pay a little bit less, a little bit smaller room and a different sort of design, those are headed to the Tru.

這些都吸引了一些類似的顧客，但大部分被吸引的顧客都是預期的，那些想要更大一點的房間並且願意多付一點錢的顧客又回來了——在漢普頓酒店和一點點。

So we look at it super carefully because keeping these 18 brands in their swim lanes is a very important thing.

所以我們會非常仔細地審視它，因為將這 18 個品牌保留在自己的泳道中是一件非常重要的事情。

And as I said, you're never going to be able to argue that they don't occasionally compete because to a degree, they all do around the edges, but they have to perform sort of in their main swim lane and ultimately attract demand from that main swim lane, and we're obsessive about looking at that.

正如我所說，你永遠無法爭辯說他們偶爾不會競爭，因為在某種程度上，他們都在邊緣進行競爭，但他們必須在自己的主泳道上表現出色並最終吸引需求來自那條主泳道，我們著迷於觀察它。

We think Tru and Hampton are both doing great.

我們認為特魯和漢普頓都做得很好。

Hampton is still the best hotel brand in the world.

漢普頓仍然是世界上最好的酒店品牌。

I think if you look at it by market share growth in units, customer satisfaction, owner returns and satisfaction, it's still the best brand in the world.

我認為，如果你從市場份額成長、客戶滿意度、業主回報和滿意度來看，它仍然是世界上最好的品牌。

Tru is going to do incredibly well at a lower price point and I think eventually be equivalent in terms of its strength, but it's something different.

Tru 將以較低的價格表現得非常好，我認為最終其強度將達到同等水平，但它有所不同。

Yes.

是的。

Smedes, I'd just add, Chris alluded to this, but the difference in the sample sizes of the 2 in terms of just the number of comp hotels and then the percentage in each group of comp hotels that are ramping hotels, it's sort of night and day for those 2 brands.

Smedes，我只是補充一下，克里斯提到了這一點，但是兩者的樣本量之間的差異僅體現在免費酒店的數量以及每組正在增加酒店的免費酒店的百分比方面，這有點像這兩個品牌的日日夜夜。

So just keep that in mind when you look at comp RevPAR growth.

因此，當您查看可售平均收入成長時，請記住這一點。

Okay.

好的。

Yes, that's helpful.

是的，這很有幫助。

And I just wanted to ask you, I mean, obviously, there's been a lot of media around whether or not Hilton Grand Vacations is sold.

我只是想問你，我的意思是，顯然，有很多媒體都在關注希爾頓分時度假俱樂部是否被出售。

I wanted to ask you technicality, I guess.

我想我想問你技術問題。

If it were sold, does your licensing fee, the fee arrangement transfer automatically?

如果出售了，您的授權費、費用安排會自動轉移嗎？

Or is that an opportunity to renegotiate?

還是這是重新談判的機會？

And maybe sort of broadly, what are the parameters of an entity that you would be willing to license those brands to?

也許從廣義上講，您願意向其授權這些品牌的實體的參數是什麼？

Yes.

是的。

We're not -- I'm not going to comment much on that.

我們不會——我不會對此發表太多評論。

First, anything related to anything HCV may do or not do, you should talk to them about.

首先，任何與 HCV 可能做或不做的事情相關的事情，您都應該與他們討論。

As it relates to Hilton, I think, which is a matter of public disclosure, when we spun the company, we were incredibly thoughtful about our contractual arrangements, which we think give us all of the things that we need to make sure that we're protecting the 2 things that we care about, which is our brand and our fee stream.

我認為，就希爾頓而言，這是一個公開披露的問題，當我們分拆公司時，我們對我們的合約安排進行了非常深思熟慮，我們認為這為我們提供了確保我們需要的所有東西。關心的兩件事，即我們的品牌和我們的費用流。

And beyond that, I'm not going to comment.

除此之外，我不會發表評論。

The next question is from Robin Farley with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的羅賓法利 (Robin Farley)。

Great.

偉大的。

2 questions.

2 個問題。

First is on -- I'm sorry if I missed this in the opening remarks, but I don't know if you said your RevPAR index in Q4.

首先是——如果我在開場白中錯過了這一點，我很抱歉，但我不知道您是否提到了第四季度的 RevPAR 指數。

And then my other question, just on share repo.

然後是我的另一個問題，關於共享回購。

Your remaining authorization looks like sort of less than a quarter's worth of -- like based on what you've done the last year, less than a quarter's worth remaining.

你的剩餘授權看起來不到四分之一——就像你去年所做的那樣，剩下的還不到四分之一。

And the Board, I guess, did authorize some things related to the dividend in February, but it looks like they did not authorize any additional share repurchase.

我猜董事會確實授權了一些與二月股息相關的事情，但看起來他們沒有授權任何額外的股票回購。

And so it looks like you're close to running out.

所以看起來你已經快用完了。

Just wondering how to interpret that.

只是想知道如何解釋。

Yes.

是的。

I don't think we've mentioned fourth quarter.

我認為我們沒有提到第四季。

For full year, we said it was up.

對於全年來說，我們說已經結束了。

The biggest increase we've seen was a 140 basis point system-wide increase for the year.

我們看到的最大增幅是今年全系統增幅 140 個基點。

Fourth quarter was relatively flat to slightly up as we expected given the comparability issues and the group positioning in the various quarters throughout the year.

考慮到全年各季度的可比性問題和集團定位，第四季度相對持平或略有上升，正如我們預期的那樣。

So no surprises there.

所以這並不奇怪。

And again, a full year share gain, that's the best that I've seen in my -- going on 13 years with the company.

再說一遍，全年的股票收益是我在公司工作 13 年以來所見過的最好的。

And Robin, I'll take this, the repurchase one.

羅賓，我要買這個，回購的那個。

I think while you are factually correct and of course, any incremental reauthorization would be up to our Board of Directors, but I think you should not read into anything related to the timing, and you should just think about our capital allocation strategy as we've articulated it continuing to live on.

我認為雖然你事實上是正確的，當然，任何增量重新授權都將取決於我們的董事會，但我認為你不應該閱讀與時間相關的任何內容，你應該只考慮我們的資本配置策略，因為我們'我們已經明確表示它會繼續存在。

Right.

正確的。

And we gave you guidance for what we're going to do.

我們為您提供了我們將要做什麼的指導。

So assume that we will live up to the guidance parameters.

因此，假設我們將遵守指導參數。

Okay.

好的。

Sounds good.

聽起來不錯。

And then just last clarification.

然後是最後的澄清。

I think in your introductory remarks, when you were recapping Q4, I think you said that the calendar hurt by 90 bps.

我想在您的介紹性發言中，當您回顧第四季度時，我想您說過日曆損失了 90 個基點。

I just wanted to clarify that because it seems like the month of December got a huge boost from the calendar.

我只是想澄清這一點，因為十二月似乎從日曆中得到了巨大的推動。

And so I didn't know if that was -- just any color about this.

所以我不知道這是否只是任何顏色。

It gets a boost.

它得到了提升。

But December is a very small month relative to the other months, and the impact of the Jewish holidays and otherwise greatly outweighed the benefit in December.

但與其他月份相比，12 月是一個非常小的月份，猶太節日和其他方面的影響遠遠超過了 12 月的好處。

Yes.

是的。

Plus day a week shifts throughout the rest of the quarter.

另外，在本季的其餘時間裡，一週的一天也會改變。

So yes, we did say that it was about a 90 basis point impact on the quarter.

所以，是的，我們確實說過這對本季產生了約 90 個基點的影響。

The next question is from Patrick Scholes with SunTrust.

下一個問題來自 SunTrust 的 Patrick Scholes。

Just a follow-up question here or perhaps a point of clarification.

這裡只是一個後續問題或可能是澄清點。

When you talked about the possible RevPAR declines due to the virus and the EBITDA, that is just mainly in China, correct?

當您談到病毒和 EBITDA 可能導致 RevPAR 下降時，這主要是在中國，對嗎？

And have you thought about what the potential impact might be outside of China such as in other countries in Asia Pacific?

您是否想過這對中國以外的地區（例如亞太地區的其他國家）可能產生什麼潛在影響？

And are you seeing any domestic cancellations from domestic travelers who are not Asia inbound at this point?

目前您是否發現非亞洲入境的國內旅客取消了國內航班？

Yes.

是的。

No, Patrick, that -- those estimates are system-wide.

不，帕特里克，那些估計是全系統範圍的。

So the -- obviously, the lion's share of the impact will be felt on the ground in China and in Asia.

因此，顯然，最大的影響將體現在中國和亞洲。

But those are system-wide estimates.

但這些是全系統的估計。

And if you think about overall U.S. -- China inbound to the U.S. on an overall system-wide basis, it's still quite small.

如果你考慮整個美國——中國在整個系統範圍內對美國的入境，它仍然很小。

It's about 20 basis points.

大約是20個基點。

And then China inbound on a system-wide basis outside of China is about 70 basis points.

然後，中國以外的整個系統的入境入境人數約為 70 個基點。

So those estimates do factor for the whole business.

因此，這些估計確實會影響整個業務。

Okay.

好的。

A follow-up question here.

這裡有一個後續問題。

Shifting gears.

換檔。

How concerned are you today about owner pushback on dilution issues when you open or add any new hotels that are competitive with your existing Hilton-branded products in the same market?

如今，當您開設或添加任何與同一市場中現有希爾頓品牌產品具有競爭力的新酒店時，您是否擔心業主對稀釋問題的抵制？

Certainly, at the ALIS Conference talking to owners, definitely sense some frustration about the proliferation of brands coming in, in their markets.

當然，在 ALIS 會議上與車主交談時，我們肯定會對進入其市場的品牌激增感到一些沮喪。

Yes.

是的。

I mean it's something -- when I talked about the process briefly in my prepared comments about how we launched Tempo, similar to how we launch every brand, we -- our owner community is deeply involved.

我的意思是，當我在準備好的關於我們如何推出 Tempo 的評論中簡要談論這個過程時，類似於我們推出每個品牌的方式，我們——我們的所有者社區深入參與了。

Like in the Tempo launch, we had an owner committee that worked with us throughout the process for -- over the last year.

就像在 Tempo 發佈時一樣，我們有一個業主委員會在去年的整個過程中與我們合作。

And we're part of the launch and we're super supportive.

我們是此次發布的一部分，我們非常支持。

I can't say that we're perfect.

我不能說我們是完美的。

There are -- occasionally, we're going to have owners that have issues with it.

有時，我們會有一些業主對此有疑問。

But back to my earlier comments about Tru -- and answering the prior question about Tru and Hampton, we're always incredibly focused on trying to develop brands that we think really are a unique demand base and customer segment that they may, around the edges, compete, but that they have a demand base that can ultimately drive their success without cannibalizing our existing brands.

但回到我之前對 Tru 的評論 - 並回答之前關於 Tru 和 Hampton 的問題，我們總是非常專注於開發我們認為真正具有獨特需求基礎和客戶群的品牌，他們可能會在邊緣，競爭，但他們有一個需求基礎，可以最終推動他們的成功，而不會蠶食我們現有的品牌。

And so given that we are obsessive about that, given that we involve a broad base of owners with us in the development of these brands, I am not ultimately particularly worried about it.

因此，考慮到我們對此非常著迷，考慮到我們在這些品牌的開發中擁有廣泛的所有者基礎，我最終並不特別擔心。

But we have a lot of brands at 18.

但我們18歲的時候有很多品牌。

We have a lot fewer than some of our competitors.

我們的數量比一些競爭對手少很多。

And so -- well, I'm not going to say I've never had a discussion with an owner that has had concerns.

所以——好吧，我不會說我從未與有顧慮的業主進行過討論。

My honest and objective view is I have not had a lot of pushback from owners, particularly given so many of them are so deeply involved in helping us develop these brands.

我誠實而客觀的觀點是，我沒有受到業主的太多反對，特別是考慮到他們中的許多人都如此深入地參與幫助我們開發這些品牌。

The next question is from Bill Crow with Raymond James.

下一個問題是比爾·克勞和雷蒙德·詹姆斯提出的。

The first question on coronavirus.

關於冠狀病毒的第一個問題。

And Kevin, I appreciate the details on the percentage contribution in the U.S. and elsewhere.

凱文，我很欣賞有關美國和其他地方的貢獻百分比的詳細資訊。

But certainly, every market is different.

但可以肯定的是，每個市場都是不同的。

And I'm just wondering whether you're seeing a bigger impact or a material impact at this point on some of the West Coast markets or New York or say, Paris and whether you've started to see any cancellations in Tokyo related to the Olympics.

我只是想知道，目前您是否會看到對某些西海岸市場或紐約或巴黎的更大影響或實質影響，以及您是否已經開始看到東京有任何與奧運會。

So first -- well, second part is a little bit easier.

所以第一部分——嗯，第二部分稍微容易。

No, we are not seeing any cancellations related to the Olympics.

不，我們沒有看到任何與奧運相關的取消。

In fact, pre-Olympics activity is gearing up as we speak.

事實上，就在我們說話的時候，奧運前的活動正在緊鑼密鼓地進行。

And we expect that to be business as usual.

我們希望一切如常。

Of course, again, if something changes in terms of the breadth and the reach of the virus, that -- we'd have to update our guidance if things were -- if that -- things were that bad.

當然，如果病毒的廣度和影響範圍發生變化，我們必須更新我們的指導意見，如果事情真的那麼糟糕的話。

So that one's easy.

所以這很容易。

On the second point, you're obviously correct.

關於第二點，你顯然是正確的。

There are markets that have a higher concentration of Chinese inbound.

有些市場的中國入境遊客較為集中。

We're trying to size it for us.

我們正在嘗試為我們確定它的大小。

So others that would be more concentrated in those markets might size it differently.

因此，其他更集中於這些市場的公司可能會以不同的方式調整規模。

But just to give you a little bit more context.

但只是為了給您更多背景資訊。

I mean on an overall basis, our overall international inbound is about 5%, and it only gets up to about 20% in key gateway cities like New York and West Coast cities.

我的意思是，從整體來看，我們的整體國際入境人數約為 5%，而在紐約和西海岸城市等主要門戶城市，這一比例僅達到 20% 左右。

And that's all inbound, not just China.

這都是入境的，而不僅僅是中國。

So China, on a relative basis, while an important outbound market and one that we've been all working really hard to cultivate, is not so impactful that it's going to change the answer beyond what we've said.

因此，相對而言，中國雖然是一個重要的出境市場，也是我們一直在努力培育的市場，但其影響力並沒有那麼大，不會改變我們所說的答案。

All right.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then my follow-up is on the pipeline.

然後我的後續行動正在醞釀。

And I think we all understand what's going on with cost inflation and construction in the U.S. and what's going on with labor cost inflation in the U.S. Are you seeing similar trends globally?

我想我們都了解美國的成本通膨和建築業的情況以及美國勞動成本通膨的情況。

And I know that's a hard thing to categorize, but your major areas of focus.

我知道這很難分類，但你的主要關注領域。

Are you seeing that sort of inflation?

你看到這種通膨了嗎？

No.

不。

I mean you're right and implied to your question is the world is a big place, and it's different sort of story everywhere you go.

我的意思是你是對的，你的問題暗示世界很大，無論你走到哪裡，都有不同的故事。

But I would say that broadly, the answer is no.

但我想說，從廣義上講，答案是否定的。

The biggest pressure that we've seen in terms of cost increases on input costs for development have been in the U.S. in terms of our larger markets around the world.

我們所看到的發展投入成本增加的最大壓力來自於我們全球更大市場的美國。

Now importantly, those have moderated.

現在重要的是，這些已經緩和了。

They're still -- they're not going down, but they're still growing.

它們仍然——它們沒有下降，但仍在增長。

But if you look at the last 2 to 4 years, I would say, our view was those input costs were going up in high single digit, low double digit.

但如果你看看過去 2 到 4 年，我會說，我們的觀點是，這些投入成本以高個位數成長，低兩位數成長。

If you look at what we see right now, that's sort of a little above inflation.

如果你看看我們現在所看到的情況，你會發現這略高於通貨膨脹率。

It's sort of like 3% versus 8% to 10%.

有點像 3% 與 8% 到 10%。

So again, they're going up.

再次，它們正在上升。

RevPARs aren't going up that much.

RevPAR 並沒有上升那麼多。

All the pressure that has been implied in a bunch of questions exist, but the pace at which it's going up is less.

一系列問題所隱含的所有壓力都存在，但上升的速度較小。

And again, having an industry-leading market share across the entire brand portfolio and with each individual brand means that what is getting done is more what we -- our brands are more financeable, and we're getting an unfair share, if you will, of that development activity.

再說一次，在整個品牌組合和每個品牌中擁有行業領先的市場份額意味著我們所做的更多是我們的——我們的品牌更容易融資，如果你願意的話，我們正在獲得不公平的份額，該開發活動。

But this is the market -- the U.S. has been, of the big markets, the most impacted by that phenomenon.

但這是市場——在大型市場中，美國是受這種現象影響最嚴重的市場。

The next question is from Thomas Allen of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的湯瑪斯艾倫。

Chris, following up on your earlier comments about seeing some strengthening in bookings over the past few weeks, is there any way to quantify it?

克里斯，根據您之前關於過去幾週預訂量有所增加的評論，有什麼方法可以量化嗎？

Or maybe qualitatively, does it kind of feel like we're back to the bookings you were seeing when RevPAR in the U.S. is more like 2% versus 1%?

或者從品質上來說，當美國的 RevPAR 更像是 2% 與 1% 時，我們是否感覺又回到了您所看到的預訂狀態？

Any color would be helpful.

任何顏色都會有幫助。

It -- Thomas, it's -- I don't want to be evasive, but I led into that with saying it's really early, a couple of weeks, 2 or 3 weeks of data.

湯瑪斯，我不想迴避，但我先說現在還很早，幾週、兩三週的數據。

So no, I can't give you a whole lot more color other than to say it's gone from like flat to wanting to -- sort of flat to wanting to be negative to showing positive growth.

所以，不，我不能給你更多的顏色，只能說它已經從平淡變成了想要——有點平淡，變成了想要表現出積極的增長。

So I can't gauge it, whether it feels like 1 or 2. It's just -- it's too early.

所以我無法判斷它是 1 還是 2。

The good news is, like every quarter, we'll be back, we'll report and we'll have a little bit more data to give you and have a better sense of it because we're just getting into the business transient travel season because that works in the first part of the year, January.

好消息是，就像每個季度一樣，我們會回來，我們會報告，我們會向您提供更多數據，並更好地了解它，因為我們剛剛進入商務短暫旅行季節，因為這適用於一年的第一部分，即一月。

The first part of January is sort of a wash because nobody wants to travel.

一月上旬有點令人沮喪，因為沒有人願意旅行。

So I'd love to give you more.

所以我很願意給你更多。

I just don't have more.

我只是沒有更多了。

That's the most sort of color I can give at the moment.

這是我目前所能給出的最多的顏色。

Helpful.

有幫助。

And then just on the NUG growth, 2 detailed questions.

然後是關於 NUG 成長的 2 個詳細問題。

Just how has attrition or closings tracked?

人員流失或倒閉的情況到底如何？

And then any update on time lines of construction?

那麼施工時間表有什麼更新嗎？

Attrition has been tracking about the same.

流失率也一直在追蹤同樣的情況。

No difference over the last few years when we look at it.

當我們看過去幾年時，沒有什麼區別。

And in terms of delays, pre-coronavirus, that will obviously likely cause -- it will cause some amount of delay, which was why we gave the overlay on that.

就延誤而言，在冠狀病毒爆發之前，這顯然可能會導致——它將導致一定程度的延誤，這就是我們對此進行疊加的原因。

Outside of that, we have not really seen it.

除此之外，我們還沒有真正看到它。

I mean we -- over -- if you look at it over the last 5 years, have we seen things take a little longer to get done, a few more months of construction and the like, yes.

我的意思是，如果你看看過去五年，我們是否發現事情需要更長的時間才能完成，或者需要多幾個月的建設時間等等，是的。

I think the technical data says yes.

我認為技術數據表明是的。

But in terms of our NUG guidance over the last few years, we've sort of baked all of that into our thinking and continued to.

但就我們過去幾年的 NUG 指導而言，我們已經將所有這些納入了我們的思考中，並將繼續這樣做。

So nothing material that we see there.

所以我們在那裡沒有看到任何實質內容。

No big trend on attrition.

人員流失沒有大趨勢。

Steady as it goes.

一路走來穩穩噹噹。

And our next question will be from Jared Shojaian with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Wolfe Research 的 Jared Shojaian。

So unit growth and RevPAR guidance for 2020 together is slightly higher than the M&F fee guidance.

因此，2020 年的單位成長和 RevPAR 指引值合計略高於 M&F 費用指引值。

Would you say that's coming more from license fees or maybe incentive fees with just a lighter RevPAR environment?

您是否認為這更多來自許可費或可能是在 RevPAR 環境較輕的情況下收取的激勵費？

Or is there something else that you would call out?

或是您還有什麼要注意的嗎？

A little -- first of all, license fees is in the fee -- is included in the fee guidance.

首先，許可費包含在費用指南中。

So again, it's a little bit of the cost control that I was talking about earlier and nothing more than that, Jared.

賈里德，這又是我之前談到的成本控制的一點點，僅此而已。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

And then can you just talk about what's next on the brand introduction front now that you've announced Tempo?

既然您已經宣布了 Tempo，您能談談品牌介紹方面的下一步計劃嗎？

And then, I guess, related to this idea, you've talked about how strong Tru has been.

然後，我想，與這個想法相關，你談到了 Tru 有多強大。

Do you think there's any opportunity to introduce anything at a price point even further below where Tru is at right now?

您認為是否有機會以低於 Tru 目前的價格推出任何產品？

I'll answer the second first.

我先回答第二個。

I don't think so.

我不這麼認為。

We're not -- I mean first of all, I've been pretty consistent in saying pre-Tempo, we were working on 2 different brands.

我們不是——我的意思是，首先，我一直很一致地說，在 Tempo 出現之前，我們正在開發兩個不同的品牌。

Tempo was one of them, upscale lifestyle.

Tempo 就是其中之一，高檔生活方式。

I've also said we have been lightly working on a luxury lifestyle.

我還說過我們一直在努力追求奢華的生活方式。

And so at some point, we will launch a luxury lifestyle brand.

因此，在某個時候，我們將推出一個奢華生活風格品牌。

We're not in a rush to do it, honestly.

老實說，我們並不急著這樣做。

We launched 3 brands basically last year.

去年我們基本上推出了3個品牌。

We've launched one this year.

我們今年推出了一個。

I want to give them all their proper birth rate and make sure they're really working.

我想給他們所有適當的出生率，並確保他們真正工作。

18 brands to the earlier commentary, we think, is enough to be able to accomplish what we want to accomplish with our network effect.

我們認為，前面評論的18個品牌足以能夠透過我們的網路效應完成我們想要完成的事情。

And so we're going to take a little bit of a break and get the ones we've got out there working and working really well.

因此，我們將稍微休息一下，讓我們現有的人員能夠正常工作，並且工作得非常好。

And someday, we'll do something in luxury lifestyle.

有一天，我們會在奢華的生活方式中做一些事情。

In the environment we're in, it's not going to be -- in any environment, it's not going to be a gargantuan brand by number of units.

在我們所處的環境中，它不會——在任何環境中，它都不會成為一個單位數量龐大的品牌。

And in today's environment, the opportunity set is less anyway.

在現今的環境下，機會無論如何都少了。

So I want our teams focused on what we have launched and to get it going.

因此，我希望我們的團隊專注於我們已經推出的產品並讓它繼續下去。

As it relates to Tru, I don't think so.

就 Tru 而言，我不這麼認為。

I mean it took the better part of, I'd say, 7 years in thinking and engineering to launch Tru.

我的意思是，我想說，Tru 的推出花了 7 年的思考和工程時間。

And the reason it took so long is we have a lot of other things going on, but it was like we were trying to figure out how do you engineer a cost to build a product, a cost to operate, clean and the like, OpEx and CapEx that would deliver a return based on a rate that we would get that would be 15% to 20% lower than Hampton but still deliver Hampton-like returns, which I would say is sort of an unleveraged return on total cost of 11% or 12% at stabilization because that's where we know you can attract the owner capital to make the magic.

花了這麼長時間的原因是我們還有很多其他事情要做，但這就像我們試圖弄清楚如何設計建造產品的成本、營運成本、清潔成本等，營運成本資本支出將根據我們獲得的回報率提供回報，該回報率比漢普頓低15% 至20%，但仍提供類似漢普頓的回報，我想說這是總成本11% 的無槓桿回報或穩定時12%，因為我們知道這可以吸引所有者資本來創造奇蹟。

And we spent a lot of time doing it.

我們花了很多時間來做這件事。

It's hard.

這很難。

The lower the price point, the harder it gets to be able to engineer it in a way where you can get those returns.

價格點越低，就越難以能夠獲得回報的方式來設計。

And importantly, it's really hard to be able to do it sustainably.

重要的是，要永續地做到這一點確實很困難。

So the problem, you've got to be able to build it to the cost.

所以問題是，你必須能夠按照成本來建造它。

You've got to be able to operate it efficiently.

您必須能夠有效地操作它。

And you got to be able to renovate it in terms of percentage of revenue that can go towards keeping it up over 20 or 30 years and deliver those returns.

你必須能夠按照收入的百分比對其進行改造，使其能夠保持 20 或 30 年以上並提供這些回報。

And the lower you go in absolute RevPAR or ADR, the harder it gets because the higher percentage you are having to reserve in order to keep these things fresh over a longer period of time.

絕對 RevPAR 或 ADR 越低，就越難，因為為了在較長時間內保持這些東西新鮮，您必須保留的百分比就越高。

We figured it out in Tru, but it took a lot of work in engineering and it's working.

我們在 Tru 中解決了這個問題，但在工程方面花費了大量的工作，而且它正在發揮作用。

I believe going to a price point lower than that, it would be very hard for us or anybody, if not impossible.

我相信，低於這個價格點，對我們或任何人來說都是非常困難的，甚至是不可能的。

And so we have -- we are not in any way working on that.

所以我們——我們沒有以任何方式致力於此。

And never say never, but I think it's very hard to go much lower in price point and ultimately deliver a product that over a long span of time, the arc of time of 20 or 30 years, these brands -- we're 100 years old, these brands got to last a long time, that you can maintain a brand like we have over 30-plus years with Hampton, that still is a category killer because you can force -- you have returns that are high enough to force the investment in over time to make sure they stay relevant.

永遠不要說永遠，但我認為很難在價格點上降低很多，並最終提供一種能夠在很長一段時間內（20 或30 年的時間弧線）的產品，這些品牌- 我們已經有100 年了舊的，這些品牌必須持續很長時間，你可以維持一個品牌，就像我們在漢普頓擁有30 多年的歷史一樣，它仍然是一個品類殺手，因為你可以強迫- 你有足夠高的回報來強迫隨著時間的推移進行投資，以確保它們保持相關性。

So it's a long-winded way of saying no, I do not see us doing that.

所以這是一種冗長的說「不」的方式，我不認為我們會這樣做。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question-and-answer session.

女士們先生們，我們的問答環節到此結束。

I would like to turn the conference back over to Chris Nassetta for any closing remarks.

我想將會議轉回克里斯·納塞塔（Chris Nassetta）發表閉幕詞。

Thanks, everybody, for the time today.

謝謝大家今天抽出時間。

We covered a lot of territory.

我們覆蓋了很多領域。

Obviously, there's some moving parts out there, particularly in APAC and with coronavirus.

顯然，有一些變化，特別是在亞太地區和冠狀病毒。

We tried to do our best to give you some contours or guardrails to how to think about it.

我們盡力為您提供一些輪廓或護欄，以引導您如何思考它。

We hope it was helpful.

我們希望這對您有所幫助。

Obviously, as the year plays out, we will keep up with you and give you more information.

顯然，隨著這一年的結束，我們將與您保持聯繫並為您提供更多資訊。

As I said in my comments, we're super excited about what we accomplished in '19 and 2020 is off to a great start, and we'll talk with you after the first quarter.

正如我在評論中所說，我們對 19 年的成就感到非常興奮，2020 年有了一個良好的開端，我們將在第一季後與您討論。

Thanks again for the time.

再次感謝您抽出時間。

The conference has now concluded.

會議現已結束。

Thank you for attending today's presentation.

感謝您參加今天的演講。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。