希爾頓酒店 (HLT) 2020 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Hilton Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2020 Earnings Conference Call.

早上好，歡迎參加希爾頓 2020 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

（操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Jill Slattery, Vice President, Investor Relations.

我現在想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Jill Slattery。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you, Chad.

謝謝你，查德。

Welcome to Hilton's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2020 Earnings Call.

歡迎參加希爾頓 2020 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。

Before we begin, we would like to remind you that our discussions this morning will include forward-looking statements.

在開始之前，我們想提醒您，我們今天上午的討論將包括前瞻性陳述。

Actual results could differ materially from those indicated in the forward-looking statements, and forward-looking statements made today speak only to our expectations as of today.

實際結果可能與前瞻性聲明中所示的結果有重大差異，今天發表的前瞻性聲明僅代表我們截至目前為止的預期。

We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise these statements.

我們不承擔公開更新或修改這些聲明的義務。

For a discussion of some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ, please see the Risk Factors section of our most recently filed Form 10-K as supplemented via our 10-Q filed on November 4, 2020.

有關可能導致實際結果不同的一些因素的討論，請參閱我們最近提交的 10-K 表格的風險因素部分，並透過 2020 年 11 月 4 日提交的 10-Q 進行補充。

In addition, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures on this call.

此外，我們將在本次電話會議上提及某些非公認會計準則財務指標。

You can find reconciliations of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures discussed in today's call in our earnings press release and on our website at ir.hilton.com.

您可以在我們的收益新聞稿和我們的網站 ir.hilton.com 上找到今天電話會議中討論的非 GAAP 與 GAAP 財務指標的調整表。

This morning, Chris Nassetta, our President and Chief Executive Officer, will provide an overview of the current operating environment; Kevin Jacobs, our Chief Financial Officer and President, Global Development, will then review our fourth quarter and full year results.

今天早上，我們的總裁兼執行長 Chris Nassetta 將概述當前的營運環境；我們的財務長兼全球發展總裁 Kevin Jacobs 隨後將回顧我們第四季度和全年的業績。

Following their remarks, we will be happy to take your questions.

在他們的發言之後，我們將很樂意回答您的問題。

With that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Chris.

至此，我很高興將電話轉給克里斯。

Thank you, Jill, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝吉爾，大家早安。

We certainly appreciate you all joining us today, and I hope everybody is staying well.

我們當然感謝你們今天加入我們，我希望每個人都一切順利。

I want to start with something difficult.

我想從一些困難的事情開始。

I want to start by extending my most heartfelt condolences to the Sorenson family and the thousands of Marriott associates around the world following the heartbreaking news of Arne's passing.

首先，在阿恩去世的令人心碎的消息傳出後，我謹向索倫森家族和全球數千名萬豪員工表示最誠摯的哀悼。

To say I'm deeply saddened by that loss, it would be an understatement.

如果說我對這次損失深感悲痛，那是輕描淡寫的。

As many of you know, I had the opportunity to work with Arne in a number of capacities throughout my career, including earlier on at Host.

正如你們許多人所知，在我的職業生涯中，包括早期在 Host 時，我有機會以多種身分與 Arne 合作。

I think it's very fair to say he was an exceptional leader, but also an incredible person and a great friend.

我認為可以公平地說他是一位傑出的領導者，也是一位令人難以置信的人和一位偉大的朋友。

Our industry is better because of him, and I am a better professional and a better person because of him.

我們的行業因為他而變得更好，我因為他而變得更專業、更優秀。

On behalf of everyone at Hilton, [Arne's] family and the entire Marriott family are in our thoughts.

我們謹代表希爾頓全體員工、[阿恩]家人和整個萬豪大家庭。

As we all know, this past year has presented unique challenges, including a pandemic that devastated lives, communities and businesses across the world, widespread economic declines and acts of social injustice.

眾所周知，過去的一年帶來了獨特的挑戰，包括一場對世界各地的生活、社區和企業造成破壞的流行病、廣泛的經濟衰退和社會不公正行為。

Due to the extraordinary levels of disruption, our industry experienced demand declines we've never seen before in our 101-year history.

由於異常嚴重的破壞程度，我們的行業經歷了 101 年歷史中從未見過的需求下降。

Guided by our founding purpose, to make the world a better place through the light and warmth of hospitality, we acted quickly to ensure the safety and well-being of our people.

在我們的創立宗旨「透過熱情好客讓世界變得更美好」的指導下，我們迅速採取行動，確保人民的安全和福祉。

We also took steps to protect our business by rightsizing our cost structure and enhancing our liquidity position while continuing to drive net unit growth and increase our network effect.

我們也採取措施，透過調整成本結構和增強流動性狀況來保護我們的業務，同時繼續推動淨單位成長和增強網路效應。

As a result of these moves, we expect to recover from the pandemic as a stronger, higher-margin business that is even better positioned to deliver performance for our owners and strong free cash flow for our shareholders.

透過這些舉措，我們預計將從疫情中恢復過來，成為一家更強大、利潤率更高的企業，能夠更好地為我們的所有者帶來業績，為我們的股東帶來強勁的自由現金流。

While it's certainly been a very difficult year, we're proud of everything we've accomplished, but we certainly could not have done it without the support of all of our stakeholders.

雖然這無疑是非常困難的一年，但我們對所取得的一切成就感到自豪，但如果沒有所有利害關係人的支持，我們當然不可能做到這一點。

For that, I'd like to extend a heartfelt thank you to all of our loyal customers, our important owner partners, our communities who supported us and enabled us to support them, our team members who gave their hearts and souls to our business and our shareholders who stood by us.

為此，我謹向我們所有的忠實客戶、我們重要的業主合作夥伴、支持我們並讓我們能夠支持他們的社區、全心全意為我們的業務和服務付出的團隊成員表示衷心的感謝。 。

Because of our amazing people, we've been able to lean on our award-winning culture, which earned the #1 Best Place to Work in the United States for the second consecutive year and the #3 World's Best Workplace to help get us through these trying times.

由於我們優秀的員工，我們能夠依靠屢獲殊榮的文化，這種文化連續第二年榮獲美國最佳工作場所第一名和全球最佳工作場所第三名，幫助我們渡過難關這些艱難的時刻。

Turning to results.

轉向結果。

For the full year, system-wide RevPAR declined 57% with adjusted EBITDA down only modestly, more -- illustrating the resiliency of our fee-based model.

全年，全系統的 RevPAR 下降了 57%，調整後的 EBITDA 僅小幅下降，這進一步說明了我們收費模式的彈性。

We also demonstrated the strength of our brands and power of our customer-centric strategy by achieving market share gains across every region, even in a distressed business environment.

即使在困難的商業環境中，我們也透過在每個地區實現市場份額的成長，展現了我們的品牌實力和以客戶為中心的策略的力量。

For the quarter, system-wide RevPAR declined 59%, relatively in line with our expectations.

本季度，全系統 RevPAR 下降 59%，相對符合我們的預期。

The positive momentum in demand that we saw through the summer and early fall was disrupted in November, December by rising COVID cases, tightening travel restrictions and further hotel suspensions, particularly in Europe.

我們在夏季和初秋看到的積極需求勢頭在 11 月和 12 月被新冠病例增加、旅行限制收緊以及酒店進一步停業（尤其是在歐洲）所破壞。

Similar to the third quarter, drive-to leisure travel drove an outsized portion of demand.

與第三季類似，駕車休閒旅遊帶動了很大一部分需求。

Business transient and group trends showed modest sequential improvement versus the prior quarter, but overall demand remained quite muted.

與上一季相比，業務瞬態和群體趨勢顯示出適度的環比改善，但整體需求仍然相當低迷。

As we look to the year ahead, we remain optimistic that accelerating vaccine distribution will lead to easing government restrictions and unlock pent-up travel demand.

展望未來一年，我們仍然樂觀地認為，加速疫苗分發將導致政府限制放鬆並釋放被壓抑的旅行需求。

For the first quarter, overall trends so far appear to be similar to the fourth quarter with modest increases in demand in the U.S., offsetting stalled recoveries in Europe and Asia Pacific.

第一季迄今的整體趨勢似乎與第四季相似，美國的需求略有成長，抵消了歐洲和亞太地區復甦停滯的影響。

We expect improving fundamentals heading into spring with essentially all system-wide rooms reopened by the end of the second quarter.

我們預計，進入春季，基本面將有所改善，到第二季末，基本上所有系統範圍內的房間都將重新開放。

We expect a more pronounced recovery in the back half of the year driven by increased leisure demand and meaningful rebounds in corporate transient and group business.

我們預計，在休閒需求增加以及企業短期和團體業務顯著反彈的推動下，今年下半年將出現更明顯的復甦。

Over the last year, the personal savings rate in the United States has nearly doubled, increasing by more than $1.6 trillion to $2.9 trillion, with the potential to go even higher given additional stimulus.

去年，美國的個人儲蓄率幾乎翻了一番，增加了 1.6 兆美元以上，達到 2.9 兆美元，如果採取額外的刺激措施，還有可能進一步上升。

We expect this to drive greater leisure demand as travel restrictions ease and markets reopen to tourism.

我們預計，隨著旅行限制的放鬆和市場對旅遊業的重新開放，這將推動更大的休閒需求。

Additionally, conversations with our large corporate customers along with sequential upticks in business transient booking pace year-to-date indicate that there is pent-up demand for business travel that should drive a recovery in corporate transient trends as the year progresses.

此外，與我們的大型企業客戶的對話以及今年迄今為止的商務旅行預訂速度的連續上升表明，商務旅行被壓抑的需求應該會隨著今年的進展推動企業旅行趨勢的複蘇。

On the group side, we saw a meaningful step-up in new group demand in January with our back half group position showing significant sequential improvement versus the first half of the year.

在集團方面，我們看到 1 月份新集團需求顯著增加，我們的後半集團位置與上半年相比顯示出顯著的連續改善。

With roughly 70% of bookings made within a week of travel, overall visibility remains limited.

由於大約 70% 的預訂是在旅行一周內完成的，因此整體可見度仍然有限​​。

However, we continue to see signs of optimism.

然而，我們仍然看到樂觀的跡象。

In fact, the vast majority of our large corporate accounts agreed to extend 2020 negotiated rates into this year.

事實上，我們絕大多數大型企業客戶都同意將 2020 年協商費率延長至今年。

Despite the challenges in 2020, we opened more than 400 hotels, totaling nearly 56,000 rooms and achieved net unit growth of 5.1%, slightly ahead of guidance.

儘管 2020 年面臨挑戰，我們仍開設了 400 多家飯店，客房總數近 56,000 間，單位淨增長 5.1%，略高於指引。

Fourth quarter openings were up nearly 30% year-over-year, largely driven by new development in China, where our focused service brands continue to command a disproportionate share of industry growth.

第四季度的空缺職位同比增長近 30%，這主要是由中國的新發展推動的，我們的重點服務品牌繼續在行業增長中佔據不成比例的份額。

We also celebrated our 1,000,000th room milestone and the openings of our 300th hotel in China, our 600th DoubleTree hotel and our 900th Hilton Garden Inn.

我們也慶祝了第 1,000,000 間客房的里程碑，以及我們在中國的第 300 家酒店、第 600 家逸林酒店和第 900 家希爾頓花園酒店的開幕。

We ended up the year with 397,000 rooms in our development pipeline, up 3% year-over-year.

截至年底，我們的開發計劃中的客房數量為 397,000 間，年增 3%。

While market disruption weighed on new development signings, conversion signings increased more than 30% versus the prior year.

雖然市場混亂對新開發項目簽約造成壓力，但改造項目簽約量較上年增長了 30% 以上。

As owners look to benefit from the strength of our network, we anticipate continued positive momentum and conversion activity, particularly through DoubleTree and our Collection brands.

由於業主希望從我們網路的優勢中受益，我們預計將持續出現積極的勢頭和轉化活動，特別是透過逸林和我們的精選品牌。

During the quarter, we signed agreements to expand our Curio Collection in Mexico and bring our Tapestry Collection to Portugal.

本季度，我們簽署了擴大墨西哥 Curio 系列並將 Tapestry 系列帶到葡萄牙的協議。

This marks one of several new Tapestry hotels scheduled to open across Europe this year.

這是計劃今年在歐洲各地開業的幾家新 Tapestry 酒店之一。

We also announced plans to debut LXR in the Seychelles with Mango House Seychelles.

我們也宣布計劃與 Mango House Seychelles 在塞席爾首次推出 LXR。

The property will deliver a truly unique hospitality experience with spacious guest rooms and suites and 5 world-class food and beverage venues.

飯店擁有寬敞的客房和套房以及 5 個世界一流的餐飲場所，將為您帶來真正獨特的接待體驗。

Scheduled to open in the coming months, the hotel underscores our commitment to further expanding our resort portfolio.

該酒店計劃在未來幾個月內開業，凸顯了我們進一步擴大度假村組合的承諾。

Building on that momentum, we kicked off 2021 with an agreement to bring LXR to Bali.

在此勢頭的基礎上，我們達成了將 LXR 帶到峇裡島的協議，拉開了 2021 年的序幕。

Additionally, we celebrated the openings of Oceana Santa Monica, which marked LXR's U.S. debut as well as the Waldorf Astoria, Monarch Beach Resort and the Hilton Vancouver Downtown, which was converted from a competitor brand.

此外，我們還慶祝了Oceana Santa Monica 的開業，這標誌著LXR 在美國的首次亮相，以及華爾道夫酒店(Waldorf Astoria)、君主海灘度假村(Monarch Beach Resort) 和溫哥華市中心希爾頓酒店(Hilton Vancouver Downtown ) 的開業，這家酒店是由競爭對手品牌改建而成的。

With these notable openings and many exciting development opportunities in front of us, we are confident in our ability to continue delivering solid growth over the next several years.

有了這些引人注目的空缺和許多令人興奮的發展機會，我們對在未來幾年繼續實現穩健成長的能力充滿信心。

The pandemic rapidly changed guest behaviors, priorities and concerns.

疫情迅速改變了賓客的行為、優先事項和擔憂。

We listened to our customers and moved quickly to launch modifications to our Honors loyalty program, deliver industry-leading standards of cleanliness and hygiene with Hilton CleanStay and provide flexible, distraction-free environments for remote work with WorkSpaces by Hilton.

我們聽取了客戶的意見，並迅速採取行動，對我們的榮譽會員計劃進行了修改，透過 Hilton CleanStay 提供業界領先的清潔和衛生標準，並透過希爾頓 WorkSpaces 提供靈活、無幹擾的遠距工作環境。

Additionally, with an even stronger focus on recovery, last month, we implemented Hilton EventReady Hybrid Solutions, an expanded set of resources to help event planners address the dramatic shift towards hybrid meetings as group business rebounds.

此外，為了更加關注恢復，我們上個月實施了 Hilton EventReady 混合解決方案，這是一組擴展的資源，可幫助活動策劃者應對隨著集團業務反彈而向混合會議的巨大轉變。

Our flexibility and innovation drove continued growth in our Honors network, ending the year with more than 112 million members who accounted for approximately 60% of system-wide occupancy.

我們的靈活性和創新推動了我們的榮譽會員網路的持續成長，到年底會員數量已超過 1.12 億，約佔全系統入住率的 60%。

Throughout 2020, we also remained focused on our corporate responsibility and our commitment to our ESG initiatives.

2020 年，我們仍然專注於我們的企業責任和對 ESG 措施的承諾。

We're proud to contribute to our communities, and we're honored to be named the global industry leader in the Dow Jones Sustainability Index for the second year in a row.

我們很自豪能夠為我們的社區做出貢獻，並且很榮幸連續第二年被評為道瓊斯可持續發展指數的全球行業領導者。

In a year marked by challenge and change, we effectively executed our crisis response strategy, carefully managed key stakeholder relationships and continued to press forward on strategic opportunities.

在充滿挑戰和變革的一年裡，我們有效執行危機應對策略，精心管理關鍵利害關係人關係，並持續推動策略機會。

I'm confident that there are brighter days ahead and that we are in a stronger, more resilient -- and we are better positioned than ever before.

我相信，未來的日子會更加光明，我們會變得更強大、更有韌性，而且我們的處境比以往任何時候都更好。

With that, I'm going to turn the call over to Kevin for a few more details on the fourth quarter and the full year.

這樣，我將把電話轉給凱文，以了解有關第四季度和全年的更多細節。

Thanks, Chris, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝克里斯，大家早安。

Before I begin, I'd like to echo Chris' sentiments about Arne.

在開始之前，我想重申克里斯對阿恩的看法。

My thoughts are certainly with his family and with my many friends at Marriott, who I know are hurting this morning.

我的心當然與他的家人和我在萬豪酒店的許多朋友同在，我知道他們今天早上正在受傷。

During the quarter, system-wide RevPAR declined 59.2% versus the prior year on a comparable and currency-neutral basis as the pandemic continued to disrupt the demand environment.

本季，由於疫情持續擾亂需求環境，在可比較和貨幣中性的基礎上，全系統的 RevPAR 比去年下降了 59.2%。

Relative to the third quarter, occupancy was modestly lower, partially due to seasonality and further tempered by rising COVID cases and associated travel restrictions.

與第三季相比，入住率略有下降，部分原因是季節性因素，以及新冠病例上升和相關旅行限制進一步抑制了入住率。

Adjusted EBITDA was $204 million in the fourth quarter, down 65% year-over-year.

第四季調整後 EBITDA 為 2.04 億美元，年減 65%。

Results reflected the continued impact of the pandemic on global travel demand, including temporary suspensions at some of our hotels during the quarter.

業績反映了疫情對全球旅遊需求的持續影響，包括本季部分飯店的暫時停業。

Management and franchise fees decreased 50%, less than RevPAR decreased, as franchise fee declines were somewhat mitigated by better-than-expected Honors license fees and development fees.

管理費和特許經營費下降了 50%，低於 RevPAR 的下降幅度，因為好於預期的榮譽許可費和開發費在一定程度上緩解了特許經營費的下降。

Overall, revenue declines were mitigated by continued cost control at both the corporate and property levels.

總體而言，公司和財產層面的持續成本控制緩解了收入下降的趨勢。

For the full year, our corporate G&A expenses were down nearly 30% year-over-year at the high end of our expectations.

全年來看，我們的企業管理及行政費用年減近 30%，達到我們預期的上限。

Our ownership portfolio posted a loss for the quarter due to the challenging demand environment, temporary closures in Europe and fixed operating costs, including fixed rent payments at some of our leased properties.

由於需求環境充滿挑戰、歐洲暫時關閉以及固定營運成本（包括我們的一些租賃物業的固定租金支付），我們的所有權投資組合本季出現虧損。

Continued cost control measures, coupled with onetime items mitigated segment losses.

持續的成本控制措施，加上一次性項目，減輕了部門損失。

For the fourth -- for the quarter, diluted loss per share adjusted for special items was $0.10.

第四季度，經特殊項目調整後的每股攤薄虧損為 0.10 美元。

Turning to our balance sheet.

轉向我們的資產負債表。

We continued to enhance our liquidity position and preserve our financial flexibility.

我們持續增強流動性狀況並保持財務靈活性。

Over the last few months, we opportunistically refinanced $3.4 billion of senior notes to extend our maturities at lower rates.

在過去的幾個月裡，我們機會主義地為 34 億美元的優先票據進行了再融資，以較低的利率延長我們的期限。

In January, we also repaid $250 million of the outstanding balance under our $1.75 billion revolving credit facility.

一月份，我們也償還了 17.5 億美元循環信貸額度下的 2.5 億美元未償餘額。

On a pro forma basis, taking these transactions into effect as of year-end 2020, we've lowered our weighted average cost of debt to 3.6% and extended our weighted average maturity to 7.2 years.

根據預計，這些交易將於 2020 年底生效，我們已將加權平均債務成本降低至 3.6%，並將加權平均期限延長至 7.2 年。

We have no major debt maturities until 2024 and maintain a well-staggered maturity ladder thereafter.

在 2024 年之前，我們沒有重大債務到期，此後將保持良好交錯的到期階梯。

Further details on our fourth quarter and full year can be found in the earnings release we issued earlier this morning.

有關我們第四季度和全年的更多詳細信息，請參閱我們今天早上發布的收益報告。

This completes our prepared remarks.

我們準備好的演講到此結束。

We would now like to open the line for any questions you may have.

我們現在願意為您解答任何問題。

(Operator Instructions) Chad, can we have our first question, please?

（操作員指示）Chad，我們可以問第一個問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions) And the first question will come from Joe Greff with JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）第一個問題將由摩根大通的 Joe Greff 提出。

Chris, I just want to start off with a big picture question.

克里斯，我只想從一個大問題開始。

I'm sure you'll get a lot of questions about 2021 net rooms growth and how you're thinking about pipeline growth from here.

我相信您會收到很多關於 2021 年淨客房增長的問題，以及您如何看待管道增長。

But Chris, I'd love to hear your thoughts on how you're thinking about your business 3 years out post vaccine.

但是克里斯，我很想聽聽您對疫苗接種後 3 年後您的業務有何看法。

What's different about your business in terms of individual business transient travel, group travel, leisure travel relative to pre-COVID?

與新冠疫情前相比，您的企業在個人商務短期旅行、團體旅遊、休閒旅遊方面有何不同？

What's different do you think about full service and limited service development in the future relative to pre-COVID?

您認為未來的全面服務和有限服務發展與新冠疫情之前有何不同？

Yes, it's a great question.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。

And so a lot to unpack there.

還有很多東西要解壓。

But I think, Joe, when you go out -- and obviously, you could debate this and I've debated it ad nauseam with a lot of people.

但我認為，喬，當你出去時 - 顯然，你可以辯論這個問題，我已經和很多人辯論過。

I think if you go out 3 years, whatever, 3 or 4 years, I think demand is going to look a lot like it did in '17, '18 and '19.

我認為如果你出去 3 年，無論如何，3 或 4 年，我認為需求看起來會很像 17 年、18 年和 19 年。

And meaning the makeup of the business heads between business transient, leisure transient and group at that point in time, I think, will look quite similar.

我認為，這意味著當時的商務瞬態、休閒瞬態和團體之間的業務負責人的組成將看起來非常相似。

Now certain of the types of -- if you get underneath the demand, particularly in business transient and the group side might be for different reasons than then.

現在，某些類型 - 如果您低於需求，特別是在業務瞬態和集團方面，可能會出於與當時不同的原因。

I mean there'll be a substitution effect, clearly, and certain types of travel being substituted with sort of the new -- the Zoom calls and digital opportunities.

我的意思是，顯然會產生替代效應，某些類型的旅行將被新的方式所取代——Zoom 通話和數位機會。

But they'll be replaced with other forms of travel.

但它們將被其他形式的旅行所取代。

And we've seen this throughout history.

我們在整個歷史中都看到了這一點。

I mean if you go back -- and I wasn't really around, but the telephone and the Internet and telepresence and voice mail.

我的意思是，如果你回去的話——我並不真正在場，而是電話、網路、網真和語音郵件。

There were always the arguments that this is going to truncate the need to travel and congregate.

一直有人認為這將減少旅行和聚會的需要。

And the reality is what it typically does is it accelerates it, right, because it just gives more efficiency.

現實是它通常會加速它，對吧，因為它只會提供更高的效率。

It speeds -- it ultimately speeds things up.

它加速了——它最終加速了一切。

It ultimately continues to connect the world and speed up globalization.

它最終繼續連接世界並加速全球化。

And as a result, people need to congregate.

因此，人們需要聚集。

They need to travel.

他們需要旅行。

They need to build relationships.

他們需要建立關係。

They need to build cultures.

他們需要建立文化。

They need to innovate.

他們需要創新。

And those things really cannot be done as well without face-to-face opportunities, both in a group setting as well as individual business travel type needs.

如果沒有面對面的機會，無論是在團體環境中還是在個人商務旅行類型的需求中，這些事情確實無法完成。

And so I -- having done it longer than I'd like to admit, 35, 40 years, I -- we've been debating this.

所以我——我做這件事的時間比我願意承認的要長，35、40 年，我——我們一直在爭論這個問題。

I don't -- again, I think there'll be some substitution effect.

我不會——再說一次，我認為會有一些替代效應。

But I think it will look a lot like it did.

但我認為它看起來會很像。

And then our business, a couple of comments since you asked, our business is going to be a better business and a stronger business and a faster growing, higher-margin business.

然後是我們的業務，既然你問了，我們的業務將是一個更好的業務、一個更強大的業務、一個成長更快、利潤率更高的業務。

Why?

為什麼？

Because, listen, throughout the next 3 years, we're going to continue to grow 4% or 5% unit growth.

因為，聽著，在接下來的 3 年裡，我們將繼續達到 4% 或 5% 的單位成長率。

So we're going to be a bigger company.

所以我們將成為一家更大的公司。

The units that we had pre-COVID, if you believe what I believe, which is you'll have similar demand levels, we'll be producing like they were.

我們在新冠疫情之前擁有的單位，如果你相信我所相信的，那就是你會有類似的需求水平，我們將像以前一樣生產。

You'll have all these new units that are then going to also be producing and you have a lower cost structure, because we've taken a significant amount of cost out on a cash basis.

您將擁有所有這些新設備，然後它們也將投入生產，並且您的成本結構較低，因為我們已經以現金為基礎削減了大量成本。

Sort of if you look at on a run rate in this year, sort of on a cash basis in the mid-teens, something like that, maybe a little bit better.

如果你看看今年的運行率，以現金為基礎，大約在十幾歲左右，類似的情況，也許會好一點。

And we're going to be incredibly disciplined as we always have been.

我們將一如既往地嚴格遵守紀律。

I think we've been on a G&A basis, at the low end of spending in the industry, but we got even better last year.

我認為我們的一般行政費用一直處於行業支出的低端，但去年我們的情況甚至更好。

And that's going to -- when you put all the same flows of fees through the system with more units and a lower cost structure, it's simple math.

當你將所有相同的費用流通過具有更多單位和更低成本結構的系統時，這就是簡單的數學。

It's a higher-margin business.

這是一項利潤率較高的業務。

And so I know it's sort of an odd time to be pounding the table with optimism, and so I probably shouldn't.

所以我知道現在樂觀地敲桌子有點奇怪，所以我可能不應該這樣做。

But as we sit around this table, I'm at our Board table and we talk about it, it's been a hard year, the hardest any of us have ever endured.

但當我們坐在這張桌子旁時，我坐在我們的董事會桌上，我們談論這件事，這是艱難的一年，是我們所有人經歷過的最艱難的一年。

But as a result of it, we put ourselves in about the best position we could have.

但結果是，我們把自己放在我們所能擁有的最佳位置。

And honestly, I think the business is going to be better for it.

老實說，我認為業務會因此變得更好。

And I think it's going to produce higher margins and more free cash flow, which we're going to be -- which is going to allow us to return even more capital than we were pre-COVID to our shareholders, which we think over the very long term is going to drive incredible returns.

我認為這將產生更高的利潤率和更多的自由現金流，這將使我們能夠向股東返還比疫情前更多的資本，我們對此進行了思考從長遠來看將帶來令人難以置信的回報。

The last point was on limited service, full service.

最後一點是有限服務、全方位服務。

And I'm not -- I'm covering a lot of territory, I know, but you asked these things.

我知道，我不是——我涵蓋了很多領域，但你問了這些事情。

And I think it's an important note because it's something I talked a lot about pre-COVID that, frankly, I don't think got enough attention, which is the mega trend in our -- in the industry in every market in the world, there is not an exception, is the mid-market, right?

我認為這是一個重要的說明，因為這是我在新冠疫情之前多次談論的事情，坦白說，我認為沒有得到足夠的關注，這是我們的大趨勢——在世界上每個市場的產業中，也不例外，就是中階市場吧？

That's -- why is that?

那是——為什麼呢？

Because that's where the bulk of the population is.

因為那是大部分人口所在的地方。

That's where the bulk of the population growth is, particularly in the emerging markets.

這是人口成長的主要來源，特別是在新興市場。

And so what can those people afford, mid-market brands.

那麼這些人能買得起什麼，中端市場品牌。

I would say, I know I'm sort of padding us now.

我會說，我知道我現在有點在安慰我們。

We have the best mid-market brands in the world.

我們擁有世界上最好的中端市場品牌。

I mean it's being proven out in the growth of those brands in -- both in the U.S., but outside the U.S., outstripping the competition in Europe, outstripping the competition in Asia Pacific, particularly China.

我的意思是，這些品牌在美國和美國以外的成長已經證明了這一點，超越了歐洲的競爭，超越了亞太地區（尤其是中國）的競爭。

And that's not by luck.

這並不是靠運氣。

We've been very purposeful over the last 10 years in making sure that we take the best brands here, and we adapt those and refine those from a product and service point of view.

在過去的十年裡，我們一直非常有目標地確保我們在這裡採用最好的品牌，並且我們從產品和服務的角度對這些品牌進行調整和完善。

We picked great development partners, like we've done in China, to make sure that these are adapted to those environments, what the customers want, what the development community, in those environments, in those regions want that it has allowed us to show really strong growth and continue to.

我們選擇了優秀的開發合作夥伴，就像我們在中國所做的那樣，以確保這些合作夥伴能夠適應這些環境、客戶的需求、開發社區的需求、在這些環境中、在那些地區的需求，這讓我們能夠展示真正強勁的成長並持續下去。

So the mega trend, which was before COVID, and I would say as a result of the economic distress that this has caused, only gets sort of accentuated in a post-COVID world is the mid-market.

因此，在新冠疫情之前的大趨勢，我想說，由於新冠疫情造成的經濟困境，在後新冠疫情世界中，中端市場只會變得更加突出。

And I feel really, really good about the work that we've done to put ourselves in a good position.

我對我們為使自己處於有利位置所做的工作感到非常非常滿意。

And I think it's showing up in the numbers of our unit growth, right, because the bulk of that unit -- I mean, we have lots of great things going on in luxury.

我認為這體現在我們單位成長的數字上，對吧，因為該單位的大部分——我的意思是，我們在奢侈品領域發生了很多偉大的事情。

We're making tremendous progress there.

我們在那裡取得了巨大進展。

Lots of great things going on in the upper upscale and all that.

上層高檔場所正在發生很多偉大的事情等等。

But the bulk of -- you see, particularly in this environment, the bulk of the growth all over the world is really coming in limited service.

但你會看到，特別是在這種環境下，全世界的大部分成長其實都來自於有限的服務。

And I've been saying it for years.

我已經這麼說了很多年了。

If you wake up in 20 years and you look back and say, where was the bulk of the growth in demand and thus, the bulk of the growth in rooms, it's going to be in the mid-market.

如果你 20 年後醒來，回顧過去並說，需求成長的大部分在哪裡，因此客房成長的大部分在哪裡，那將是在中端市場。

And that's why we've been focused on everything, but so intensely focused on that because in the end, that's what's going to drive higher growth rate.

這就是為什麼我們一直專注於一切，但如此強烈地專注於這一點，因為最終，這將推動更高的成長率。

That is what -- having the best brands in that space that we adapt to the local market conditions is what's going to deliver alpha for us, the real alpha, over the next 10 or 20 years.

這就是——擁有該領域最好的品牌，我們適應當地市場條件，這將在未來 10 或 20 年為我們帶來阿爾法，真正的阿爾法。

The next question comes from Carlo Santarelli with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的卡洛桑塔雷利 (Carlo Santarelli)。

(inaudible)

（聽不清楚）

Carlo, we can't hear you very well.

卡洛，我們聽不清楚你說話。

Can you speak up a little?

你能說一點嗎？

Sorry.

對不起。

I'm sorry, guys.

對不起，夥計們。

Can you hear me a little better?

你聽得清楚一點嗎？

Yes, yes, yes.

對對對。

Sorry.

對不起。

Great.

偉大的。

You spent some time, obviously, talking about how you're thinking about the pipeline.

顯然，您花了一些時間談論您對管道的看法。

And I guess, kind of conversion (inaudible) they were maybe about 19% of units this year -- in 2020, so to speak.

我猜，今年（可以這麼說）2020 年，它們可能佔單位數量的 19% 左右（聽不清楚）。

How do you see conversion activity representing the growth algorithm over the next, call it, 12 to 24 months?

您如何看待代表未來 12 到 24 個月成長演算法的轉換活動？

Obviously, they will be used to augment.

顯然，它們將被用來增強。

Where could you kind of see that x conversion percentage as a percentage of your gross unit adds kind of peaking out over the next 2 years?

您在哪裡可以看到 x 轉換百分比佔總單位的百分比在未來 2 年內達到頂峰？

I think I got all that.

我想我已經明白這一切了。

You are kind of cutting in and out.

你有點進進出出。

So I'll answer what I think I heard, and if I miss something, come back and remind me.

所以我會回答我認為我聽到的內容，如果我錯過了什麼，請回來提醒我。

So in terms of NUG, we feel the same way we have felt over the last couple of quarters.

因此，就 NUG 而言，我們的感受與過去幾季的感受相同。

We obviously delivered a little bit better at 5.1%, because we had a huge fourth quarter in terms of deliveries.

我們的交貨量顯然要好一些，為 5.1%，因為我們第四季的交付量很大。

But we've said over the next few years, we think we'll deliver 4% to 5%.

但我們說過，在接下來的幾年裡，我們認為我們將實現 4% 到 5% 的成長。

And I still feel really good about that.

我對此仍然感覺很好。

I think this year, it will probably be more the midpoint to the high end of that, similar to last year.

我認為今年，它可能會更多地處於中點到高端，與去年類似。

But I think over the next few years, we feel comfortable with that.

但我認為在接下來的幾年裡，我們對此感到滿意。

And in part, leading to what I heard is the second part of your question, is success that we're having on the conversion side.

在某種程度上，導致我聽到的是你問題的第二部分，是我們在轉換方面的成功。

We've always been focused on conversions and in downturns, as everybody knows, that's very fertile ground.

我們一直專注於轉型和經濟低迷時期，眾所周知，這是非常肥沃的土壤。

Over the past 5 or 6 years, we've gone from having essentially 1 conversion brand, really that was the big engine, which was DoubleTree, to now having 4 between our 3 soft brands and DoubleTree, all of which are producing for us and I think will continue to escalate.

在過去的五、六年裡，我們已經從基本上擁有1 個轉換品牌（實際上這是一個大引擎，即逸林），到現在在我們的3 個軟品牌和逸林之間擁有4 個品牌，所有這些品牌都為我們生產和我認為還會繼續升級。

I mentioned in my prepared comments, our signings for conversions were up 30% last year.

我在準備好的評論中提到，去年我們的簽約轉換率增加了 30%。

Our starts, which I did not mention, probably should have, were up 40%.

我們的開工率（我沒有提到）可能應該提高了 40%。

And our fourth quarter, our opens, we're up about 44%.

第四季度，我們的開盤業績成長了約 44%。

So what you see happening is sort of natural, like it takes a little bit of time to ramp.

所以你所看到的發生是很自然的，就像需要一點時間來加速一樣。

You're right.

你說得對。

We were circa 20% of overall NUG and conversions that was up 300 or 400 basis points versus the prior year.

我們約佔整體 NUG 的 20%，轉換率比前一年增加了 300 或 400 個基點。

And I think what you'll see over the next few years is that will become a larger and larger component of overall NUG.

我認為在接下來的幾年裡你會看到它將成為整個 NUG 中越來越大的組成部分。

How high will it go, which maybe would be the next question, so I'll answer it.

它會漲到多高，這可能是下一個問題，所以我會回答它。

Unclear.

不清楚。

I mean we -- in the Great Recession, it went into the 40s.

我的意思是我們——在大衰退中，它進入了 40 年代。

I don't think it will go that high because I honestly think we have so many other engines firing, particularly in China with all of our limited service growth as compared to the Great Recession, that I don't think it will go that higher.

我不認為它會走得那麼高，因為老實說，我認為我們還有很多其他引擎在啟動，特別是在中國，與大衰退相比，我們所有的服務增長都有限，所以我認為它不會走得那麼高。

But I think it could clearly go into the upper 20s, low 30s over the next few years.

但我認為未來幾年它顯然可能會進入 20 多歲、30 多歲以下。

And so we have tremendous amount of focus on it, as you would guess, and the development teams are aligned around those goals.

因此，正如您所猜測的那樣，我們對此非常關注，並且開發團隊圍繞這些目標保持一致。

And I think you are starting to see, with some of the numbers that I described, the natural ramp-up in that and very, very good progress there.

我認為，透過我所描述的一些數字，您已經開始看到這方面的自然成長以及非常非常好的進展。

So I think things are coming along really nicely.

所以我認為事情進展得非常順利。

Did I miss anything in your question?

我錯過了你問題中的任何內容嗎？

No.

不。

Certainly, you covered it all.

當然，你已經涵蓋了這一切。

The next question is from Shaun Kelley with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Shaun Kelley。

Chris or Kevin, maybe sort of going down the same path as you just did for net units on -- digging in on the G&A cadence a little bit more.

克里斯或凱文，也許會走與您剛剛為淨單位所做的相同的道路——更多地關注 G&A 節奏。

Obviously, I think there's some noise with stock-based comp.

顯然，我認為基於股票的比較存在一些噪音。

But Chris, I think you referred to overall kind of cash expense savings and a higher margin profile restructure looking out a few years.

但是克里斯，我認為您提到了未來幾年的整體現金支出節省和更高的利潤率結構重組。

Could you just help us kind of build on that a little bit as you kind of look out a little further?

當您看得更遠時，您能否幫助我們在此基礎上進一步發展？

What's either the right run rate to think about relative to 2019 levels for 2021?

相對於 2019 年的水平，2021 年的正確運行率是多少？

Or just maybe even more strategically, how much more efficient do you think we are a few years out from now versus where we ended 2019?

或者從策略上講，您認為幾年後我們的效率與 2019 年結束時相比會提高多少？

Yes, Shaun, I'll take that one.

是的，肖恩，我想要那個。

I think you sort of pointed out some of it, right, on the GAAP G&A side, includes stock comp that's noncash, right?

我想你有點指出了其中的一些，對吧，在 GAAP G&A 方面，包括非現金的股票補償，對吧？

So over the course of last year, we wrote down our plans, and then we put in a new plan in place in the fourth quarter.

因此，在去年的過程中，我們寫下了我們的計劃，然後我們在第四季度製定了一個新計劃。

So you saw some things bounce around and then overall it ended up at 30%.

所以你看到一些東西出現反彈，然後總體來說最終達到了 30%。

On a cash basis, we ended up, I can't remember if, Chris, you said this in your first answer.

在現金基礎上，我們最終得出的結論是，克里斯，我不記得你在第一個答案中是否說過這一點。

But on a cash basis, we ended up about 20% better 2020 over 2019.

但以現金計算，我們 2020 年的表現比 2019 年好約 20%。

And then I know Chris did say this, we think '21 versus 2019 will be down in the mid-teens on a cash basis.

然後我知道克里斯確實說過這樣的話，我們認為 21 年與 2019 年相比，以現金計算，價格將下降到十幾歲左右。

And so how can that trend going forward?

那麼這種趨勢如何持續發展呢？

I think, look, overall, wages and benefits have been growing in excess of core inflation.

我認為，整體而言，薪資和福利的成長超過了核心通膨。

Over time, that's probably not going to trend.

隨著時間的推移，這可能不會成為趨勢。

But we've -- look, we're adding no new heads in the business this year.

但我們——看，今年我們沒有在該業務中增加新的負責人。

And so we think for several years, we're going to remain disciplined as we always have, and there's no reason to think that we can't grow cash overhead at sort of slightly ahead of inflation -- slightly more than inflation, because that's probably what wages and benefits wants to grow over the next few years.

因此，我們認為，未來幾年，我們將像往常一樣保持紀律，沒有理由認為我們不能以略高於通貨膨脹的速度增加現金管理費用——略高於通貨膨脹，因為那是未來幾年工資和福利可能會成長多少。

And there's nothing that we see in the future that says we can't continue to get back to scaling the business without having step changes in growth in overhead.

我們在未來看到的一切都表明，在管理費用成長不發生重大變化的情況下，我們不能繼續擴大業務規模。

The next question comes from David Katz with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自傑弗里斯的大衛·卡茨。

Good to hear everyone's voices.

很高興聽到大家的聲音。

Chris, in your comments, you talked about pent-up demand for corporate travel, and you made some comments around group.

克里斯，在您的評論中，您談到了被壓抑的商務旅行需求，並圍繞團體發表了一些評論。

And I'm hoping that you might be able to go just a little bit further and talk about how broad-based that might be, any industries, et cetera?

我希望您能夠更進一步討論這可能有多麼廣泛的基礎，任何行業等等？

It's obviously quite intuitive that leisure would have a lot of pent-up demand, but we spend a lot of time debating those other segments and would just love a little more depth, if you have it available.

顯然，休閒會有很多被壓抑的需求，這是很直觀的，但我們花了很多時間討論其他部分，並且希望有更多的深度（如果有的話）。

Yes.

是的。

I can give you -- I'll give you what I do have.

我可以給你——我會給你我所擁有的。

I mean I talked about in my prepared comments, David, the leisure side, and I think we all -- I think we can all kind of stipulate that people want to get out of their basements and they want to travel.

我的意思是，我在準備好的評論中談到了大衛，休閒方面，我認為我們所有人 - 我認為我們都可以規定人們想要走出地下室並且想要旅行。

And while people have been starting to do that, not that many have.

儘管人們已經開始這樣做，但這樣做的人並不多。

And certainly, the higher-end leisure business has not really been out and about.

當然，高端休閒業務還沒有真正發展起來。

And so I think as you get through what is going to be a mass vaccination period of time over the next 90 days, I think when you get to late spring and summer, everything I'm hearing, talking to the Biden administration, which you're now reading in the papers, too, but we're having pretty direct conversations.

因此，我認為，當你度過接下來 90 天的大規模疫苗接種期時，我想當你到春末和夏季時，我所聽到的一切，與拜登政府的談話，你我們現在也在看報紙，但我們正在進行非常直接的對話。

I think maybe even sooner, I think -- the President said last night, I heard that by the end of July, every American will be able to be vaccinated.

我想也許會更早——總統昨晚說，我聽說到七月底，每個美國人都能夠接種疫苗。

My own belief based -- if you look at the manufacturing curve and expectation of J&J getting approved, probably by the end of this month that, that could be much -- that could be sooner than the middle of the summer.

我自己的信念是——如果你看看強生公司的生產曲線和獲得批准的預期，可能到本月底，這可能會比夏季中旬更早。

So I think once you get there, I think people have a lot of savings, even though they've been buying stuff like crazy as we know because a lot of the retail and car business and homes and all that have been doing well.

所以我認為，一旦到達那裡，我認為人們有很多積蓄，儘管他們一直在瘋狂地購買東西，因為我們知道，很多零售、汽車業務和住宅以及所有這些都表現良好。

They want to get out.

他們想出去。

They want to get out more than ever, talk to anybody, talk to any of your friends and you get the answer.

他們比以往任何時候都更想出去，與任何人交談，與你的任何朋友交談，你就會得到答案。

And so I think the trend line there will be quite good when you get a bit of the all-clear sign, which I think will be -- hopefully, by spring, certainly no worse than summer.

因此，我認為，當你得到一些明確的跡象時，趨勢線將會相當好，我認為希望到春天，肯定不會比夏天更糟。

On the business transient, there are data points.

在業務瞬態上，有數據點。

I mean what -- but a lot of it is admittedly anecdotal in the sense of just discussions that we're having with our big customers and trends that we're seeing.

我的意思是——但從我們與大客戶的討論以及我們所看到的趨勢的意義上來說，其中許多無疑都是軼事。

As we're having discussions with our customers, as we've been renegotiating all of our corporate negotiated accounts.

當我們與客戶進行討論時，我們一直在重新談判我們所有的公司談判帳戶。

I mean, clearly, there is massive pent-up demand.

我的意思是，顯然存在著大量被壓抑的需求。

I mean they may -- by the way, they're -- obviously, in businesses that are hurting, they're going to have cutbacks for maybe their run rate numbers of '18 and '19.

我的意思是，他們可能——順便說一句，他們——顯然，在受到傷害的企業中，他們可能會削減“18”和“19”的運行率數字。

But the reality is they just -- in the short term, they have so many things that they need to do when you talk to them about collecting their people, innovation, just team meetings, getting out with clients and customers and the like that it's just -- it's been over a year.

但現實是，在短期內，當你與他們談論聚集人員、創新、團隊會議、與客戶和顧客交流之類的事情時，他們有很多事情需要做。

By the time they're out a little bit, 15 months, and forget the fact they want to see people, they need to see people.

當他們離開一段時間，15個月後，就忘記了他們想要見人的事實，他們需要見人。

And so you're starting to see that even though we're in the -- you see the infection rate coming down.

因此，您開始看到，即使我們處於感染率下降的情況。

I mean we're still not through the crisis, for sure.

我的意思是，我們還沒有渡過危機，這是肯定的。

And you're starting to see it in the booking trends.

您開始在預訂趨勢中看到這一點。

I mean the business transient trends are clearly sort of, week by week, are marching up even in the middle of all this, even though we don't have the all -- an all-clear sign.

我的意思是，即使在這一切之中，業務瞬態趨勢也明顯每週都在上升，儘管我們沒有所有的——一個明確的跡象。

So not tons of data other than what real booking data suggests short term, it's moving in the right direction, but lots of conversations with customers are saying that.

因此，除了真實的預訂數據表明短期內，沒有大量數據表明它正在朝著正確的方向發展，但與客戶的大量對話都表明了這一點。

And lots of surveying that we're doing is suggesting like it was -- that people are more interested in travel for leisure and business.

我們正在進行的大量調查表明，人們對休閒和商務旅行更感興趣。

As our polling goes, like over 80% of them say they got to get back out on the road, which is the highest number, obviously, we've seen since this mess began.

根據我們的民意調查，超過 80% 的人表示他們必須重新上路，顯然，這是自這場混亂開始以來我們所看到的最高數字。

So that's good.

所以這樣很好。

On the group side, that's going to take longer, but the trend lines are good.

在集團方面，這將需要更長的時間，但趨勢線很好。

If you look at like our lead volume, sort of fourth quarter versus January, January was up 35%.

如果你看一下我們第四季的銷售量，與 1 月相比，1 月成長了 35%。

If you look at it, January versus December, it was up 50%.

如果你看一下，1 月與 12 月相比，上漲了 50%。

I'd give you the quarter because normally, January would step up from December because of the holidays.

我會給你一個季度，因為通常情況下，由於假期，一月會比十二月提前。

So I want to - I think a better number would probably be sort of the average over the whole fourth quarter.

所以我想 - 我認為更好的數字可能是整個第四季度的平均值。

But that's up by more than 1/3.

但這增加了超過 1/3。

A stat that I - as I go through with the team that I thought was very encouraging on the group side was that our first half position for 2021 versus '19.

當我與球隊一起經歷時，我認為在小組方面非常令人鼓舞的一項統計數據是我們 2021 年與 19 年上半場的位置。

So let's forget '20, because it was a washout.

所以讓我們忘記20年吧，因為那是一場慘敗。

I mean the comparability is not relevant.

我的意思是可比性不相關。

If you look at it versus a stabilized year of '19, first half position on the group side system-wide is down 80%.

如果與 19 年穩定的一年相比，上半年整個集團系統的排名下降了 80%。

The second half of the year versus the second half of '19 is down by 32%.

今年下半年與 19 年下半年相比下降了 32%。

So again, it's still off, but by a lot lesser margin.

再說一次，它仍然關閉，但幅度要小得多。

And that's a result of people saying, I got to get out.

這是人們說的結果，我必須離開。

I want to get out.

我想出去。

I want to -- I got to have team meetings.

我想要—我必須召開團隊會議。

I got to have small group, medium-sized group.

我必須有小團體，中型團體。

Conventions are starting to book again because they're going to go out of business if they don't get booking again.

會議再次開始預訂，因為如果不再預訂，他們就會倒閉。

With an expectation, obviously, by the time you get to the second half of the year, that it's safe, and they can do it from a health point of view.

顯然，到今年下半年時，人們會認為這是安全的，而且從健康的角度來看，他們可以做到這一點。

And so we need this -- my belief is we will get there, but we need this vaccination effort between now and June, July to really ramp up.

所以我們需要這個——我相信我們會實現這一目標，但我們需要從現在到六月、七月之間進行疫苗接種工作，才能真正加強。

And it feels like, day by day, that's happening.

感覺就像這樣的事情日復一日地發生。

So that's a little bit of color.

所以這是一點點顏色。

Obviously, we got to play out the next few months and have the right things fall into place.

顯然，我們必須在接下來的幾個月中做好準備，並讓正確的事情落實到位。

But I think there's a real opportunity for the -- I said this publicly, I think on Bloomberg or somewhere, but I do think there's a great opportunity for the second half of the year to be better than any of us think.

但我認為這是一個真正的機會——我在彭博社或其他地方公開說過這一點，但我確實認為今年下半年有一個很好的機會比我們任何人想像的都要好。

Because when -- it's like everything.

因為當——就像一切一樣。

When you're at the top of the cycle, you always think everything is going to stay good forever, and it's a new norm.

當你處於週期的頂部時，你總是認為一切都會永遠保持良好狀態，這是一種新常態。

And when you're looking from the bottom, the depths of doom, you're sort of trend lining off a lot of negativity.

當你從底層、末日的深處看時，你會發現一種趨勢消除了許多負面情緒。

And eventually, this thing is going to flip and people want to get out, no matter what anybody says, they want to travel.

最終，事情會逆轉，人們想要出去，不管別人說什麼，他們想要旅行。

And when the all-clear sign is sort of given, which is the light at the end of the tunnel and I think coming soon, I think there's a huge amount of pent-up demand.

當解除警報的信號出現時，即隧道盡頭的曙光，我認為很快就會出現，我認為存在大量被壓抑的需求。

And I think we could all like what we see in the second half of the year.

我認為我們都會喜歡今年下半年所看到的情況。

Appreciate it.

欣賞它。

And if I may for just a very quick follow-up, on the subject of hybrid segment or bleisure, any thoughts, strategies or marketing efforts to that end?

我可以就混合細分市場或商務休閒這個主題進行快速跟進嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I mean all of our efforts on the marketing side, I mean, to keep it short and simple, so we can let other folks ask questions.

我的意思是，我們在行銷方面所做的所有努力，都是為了保持簡短和簡單，這樣我們就可以讓其他人提出問題。

All of our efforts have been focused on fishing where the fish are.

我們所有的努力都集中在有魚的地方釣魚。

And right now, what -- where the fish are at the moment is in sort of value-based leisure and bleisure business.

現在，魚目前所在的位置屬於基於價值的休閒和商務休閒業務。

So -- and it's really -- the bleisure part of it is small businesses that really don't have the choice but to travel to keep their businesses going, and they are sort of mixing it with leisure opportunities because they have more mobility.

因此，實際上，商務休閒部分是小型企業，他們別無選擇，只能出差來維持業務，而且他們將其與休閒機會混合在一起，因為他們有更多的流動性。

In a sense, they're not locked into -- their kids aren't locked into necessarily being in schools and they're not locked into being in an office.

從某種意義上說，他們並沒有被限制——他們的孩子沒有被限制在學校裡，他們也沒有被限制在辦公室裡。

So all of our efforts across what we're doing with Honors, what we're doing with promotions, what we're doing with our marketing spend have been focused on that.

因此，我們在榮譽、促銷、行銷支出方面所做的所有努力都集中在這一點上。

Now that's all going to obviously shift.

現在這一切顯然都會改變。

If all goes well and I'm right, you'll -- and we're obviously working on the plans to not go immediately back to where we were, but to start to migrate back to sort of a more normal approach as demand patterns become more normalized.

如果一切順利並且我是對的，那麼我們顯然正在製定計劃，不會立即回到原來的狀態，而是開始遷移回更正常的需求模式方法變得更加常態化。

The next question is from Stephen Grambling with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的史蒂芬‧格蘭布林（Stephen Grambling）。

On your comments on the second half '21 trends, those are all helpful.

關於您對 21 年下半年趨勢的評論，這些都很有幫助。

But perhaps coming at it from another angle, how did leisure, business and group segments fare in China in the fourth quarter before incremental lockdowns?

但也許從另一個角度來看，在逐步實施封鎖之前，第四季度中國的休閒、商務和團體細分市場表現如何？

And how would you compare and contrast that market to the U.S. as you think about how it may inform the trajectory of a recovery once cases are reined in?

當您考慮一旦病例得到控制後，該市場將如何影響復甦軌跡時，您會如何將該市場與美國進行比較和對比？

And perhaps as a related follow-up, are you seeing any signs of that substitution of trips that you're referencing in that market?

也許作為相關的後續行動，您是否看到您在該市場中提到的旅行替代的任何跡象？

In the -- yes, obviously, China, as you implied in your question, sort of backed up with what's going on, particularly in the north of China more than the south of China in the first quarter.

是的，顯然，正如您在問題中所暗示的那樣，中國對正在發生的事情有所支持，特別是在第一季度，中國北部的情況比中國南部的情況要多。

In the fourth quarter, I would say -- I don't have all the data in front of me, but I would say anecdotally from lots of conversations with our Asia Pac and our China team, it was very rapidly sort of approaching normalcy, meaning we weren't fully back with -- there was still a little bit heavier leisure component, but there always is in China, by the way.

在第四季度，我會說——我面前沒有所有數據，但我會從與我們的亞太地區和中國團隊的大量對話中得知，情況很快就接近正常，這意味著我們還沒有完全恢復——仍然有一些更重的休閒成分，但順便說一句，在中國總是有的。

I mean it's a heavier leisure market broadly.

我的意思是，從廣義上講，這是一個更龐大的休閒市場。

But we weren't too terribly far off of our business transient and our group trends, but it was following the same pattern I would expect here.

但我們與我們的業務瞬態和集團趨勢並沒有相差太遠，但它遵循的是我在這裡期望的相同模式。

Leisure leads, business transient is a close second.

休閒為主，商務短暫緊追在後。

And the groups just because they're, by nature of group business, it's a little bit longer lead time, there's a little bit more planning, was lagging a bit.

這些集團只是因為集團業務的性質，交貨時間稍長一些，計劃多一些，所以有點滯後。

But they -- China, we were running like 10 points off, something like that.

但他們——中國隊，我們落後了 10 分，類似的事情。

So we were getting -- before they backed up, we were getting to, I think, very normalized levels of demand.

因此，在他們支持之前，我認為我們已經達到了非常正常化的需求水準。

We were not seeing any material, as far as we could tell, with the data we had, any sort of substitution effect.

據我們所知，根據我們掌握的數據，我們沒有看到任何材料，任何形式的替代效應。

Reality is China was sort of going back to the normal trends that it had very rapidly before COVID.

現實是，中國正在迅速恢復到新冠疫情爆發之前的正常趨勢。

And so I think, well, China is different in lots of ways.

所以我認為，中國在很多方面都是不同的。

I think humans are humans.

我認為人類就是人類。

And I think that's why my belief is that as we sort of come out of this, leisure will lead business streams, it will be a fast follow.

我認為這就是為什麼我相信，當我們走出困境時，休閒將引領商業潮流，它將很快被追隨。

Group will take a little bit longer to develop because of the lead times.

由於交貨時間的原因，集團的開發時間會更長一些。

But the demand patterns will, over a couple of years, return and look a lot like they did pre-COVID.

但幾年後，需求模式將會回歸，看起來很像新冠疫情之前的情況。

And one very quick follow-up.

還有一個非常快速的後續行動。

Just can you remind us what percentage of the China business is normally international inbound, which I imagine you'd have to overcome to get to that 10 points off.

您能否提醒我們，中國業務通常有多少比例是國際入境業務，我想您必須克服這一點才能獲得 10 個百分點的折扣。

Yes.

是的。

It's about 10 points -- 10%.

大約是 10 個點——10%。

The next question will be from Bill Crow with Raymond James.

下一個問題將由比爾·克勞和雷蒙德·詹姆斯提出。

I got a 2-parter on unit growth, if I might.

如果可以的話，我在單位成長方面有一個兩人合作的機會。

The first part of it is simply, are there economic differences to Hilton between adding a conversion DoubleTree or, say, opening a Hampton Inn that is newly built?

第一部分很簡單，增加希爾頓逸林酒店或開設新建的漢普頓酒店對希爾頓來說是否存在經濟差異？

And maybe that's a year 1 versus year 3 question.

也許這是第一年和第三年的問題。

Yes.

是的。

I mean the difference is -- I think you already answered, sort of [implied.] It's just timing.

我的意思是，差別在於－我想你已經回答了，有點[暗示]。

I mean conversions just happen faster, most -- not always in the year for the year, but typically, between signing and getting them in the system and paying fees, it happens very rapidly, usually within 6 to 12 months.

我的意思是，轉換發生得更快，大多數情況下，並不總是在一年中發生，但通常情況下，在簽署、將其納入系統和支付費用之間，轉換發生得非常快，通常在6 到12 個月內。

And signing of new builds, depending on where in the world you are, takes anywhere from 12 to 48 months.

新版本的簽署需要 12 到 48 個月不等，具體取決於您所在的位置。

And so conversions produce faster.

因此轉化速度更快。

I'd say in terms of ramps and underlying economics, I mean, I'm looking at Kevin, he runs the development, not a material difference as I think about it.

我想說的是，就坡道和基礎經濟而言，我的意思是，我正在關注凱文，他負責開發，而不是我認為的實質差異。

I don't have the data in front of me, but anecdotally, we're involved with that.

我面前沒有數據，但有趣的是，我們參與其中。

Yes, and we're involved in all these deals.

是的，我們參與了所有這些交易。

I don't think there's any real difference in terms of -- I think it just comes faster.

我認為在這方面沒有任何真正的區別——我認為它只是來得更快。

I think the basic fee structures are quite similar.

我認為基本費用結構非常相似。

Yes, that's right.

恩，那就對了。

And I just think, look, DoubleTree's a full-service hotel.

我只是覺得，看，逸林酒店是一家提供全方位服務的酒店。

So it's market specific, but the absolute level of fees tends to be a little bit higher.

因此，這是特定於市場的，但費用的絕對水平往往會稍高一些。

But generally speaking, the return profile is very similar.

但總的來說，回報情況非常相似。

Perfect.

完美的。

Perfect.

完美的。

The follow-up or the second part is, whether you think the $15 national minimum wage would impact development economics for select service, say, your Tru hotels, which tend to be in smaller markets where maybe the labor rate is much lower.

後續或第二部分是，您是否認為 15 美元的全國最低工資會影響特定服務的發展經濟學，例如您的 Tru 酒店，這些酒店往往位於較小的市場，那裡的勞動力價格可能要低得多。

It could.

它可以。

I've been talking to lots of folks about this issue.

我已經和很多人討論過這個問題。

And broadly, I think many, including me, are supportive over time that the minimum wage needs to move up.

總的來說，我認為包括我在內的許多人都支持隨著時間的推移提高最低工資。

But as I've said to a number of people in the administration time and place, sort of how you do it and when you do it matters.

但正如我在政府時間和地點對一些人所說的那樣，如何做以及何時做很重要。

And so I think the likely outcome is -- I don't know that it will end up in this first bill.

所以我認為可能的結果是——我不知道它最終會出現在第一個法案中。

I do think that they're -- I think that is probably not highly likely based on what I'm hearing, possible but not highly likely.

我確實認為——根據我所聽到的情況，我認為這可能性不大，有可能，但可能性不大。

But it will not be an issue that goes away.

但這不會是一個消失的問題。

And I think that the how and the when then become important.

我認為如何以及何時變得非常重要。

And so how being that, first of all, even in what's being proposed now, it's not all to $15.

首先，即使在現在提議的方案中，也不是全部達到 15 美元。

It's staged in over basically 5 years.

它的上演時間基本上超過5年。

And so I think that creates a ramp that allows people to adjust and create -- we're obviously working with our owners on creating even more efficiencies.

因此，我認為這創造了一個允許人們調整和創造的斜坡——我們顯然正在與我們的所有者合作，以創造更高的效率。

So it's not like overnight you go across the country to $15.

所以你不可能一夜之間穿越整個國家到達 15 美元。

By the way, there are a whole bunch of markets that are already $15, and so they've been dealing with it.

順便說一句，有很多市場的價格已經是 15 美元，所以他們一直在處理這個問題。

I would also like to think that if people really spend the time figuring out that not every market is the same, that living in Poughkeepsie is not the same as living in New York City and that these can be indexed.

我還想，如果人們真的花時間弄清楚並非每個市場都是一樣的，生活在波基普西與生活在紐約市並不一樣，而這些可以被索引。

And then when do you start to sort of move it up, I think, is a big issue.

我認為，什麼時候開始提升它是一個大問題。

My personal worry and concern is the hospitality industry has been more impacted from a jobs point of view than any industry in the country.

我個人的擔心和擔憂是，從就業角度來看，酒店業比該國任何行業都受到更大的影響。

And it's the slowest in recovery in terms of bringing jobs back.

就恢復就業而言，這是復甦最慢的。

And I don't think raising the minimum wage, no matter how you look at the analysis, is going to help.

而且我認為，無論你如何看待分析，提高最低工資不會有幫助。

I think it will slow the rehiring of people in the industry.

我認為這將減緩該行業人員的重新招募。

And so I am hopeful that in the end that people will be rational.

所以我希望人們最終會變得理性。

Rational thinking will prevail.

理性思考將佔上風。

And as a result, this will not be a major issue, certainly in the short to intermediate term.

因此，這不會是一個主要問題，尤其是在中短期內。

I think we should all assume that the minimum wage is going to be going up over time, in fact, because it needs to.

我認為我們都應該假設最低工資會隨著時間的推移而上升，事實上，因為它需要這樣做。

But again, I think it's -- I'm hopeful that it will be done in a staged way.

但我再次認為，我希望這將以分階段的方式完成。

And there'll be other mechanisms built into the timing and the geographical approach that will make it make sense on all sides.

並且還將在時間安排和地理方法中內建其他機制，使其對各方都有意義。

So the short -- that's the long answer, Bill.

簡而言之，這就是長答案，比爾。

The short answer is I don't think, in the short to intermediate term, there's any meaningful impact as a result of it.

簡而言之，我認為從短期到中期來看，它不會產生任何有意義的影響。

And Bill, I'll just add, I mean, that obviously covers the ground on the issue really well.

比爾，我只想補充一點，我的意思是，這顯然很好地涵蓋了這個問題的基礎。

I'll just add as a quick plug for our products, right?

我只需添加為我們產品的快速插頭，對嗎？

And so our products, on a relative basis, if you start with revenue premiums and then our more modern prototypical, particularly you referenced Tru, that even though if wage and benefits costs go up, that does make it more expensive for developers.

因此，我們的產品，相對而言，如果你從收入溢價開始，然後是我們更現代的原型，特別是你提到的Tru，即使工資和福利成本上升，這確實會讓開發商變得更加昂貴。

But on a relative basis, our products are more efficient.

但相對而言，我們的產品效率更高。

So it should continue to give us an opportunity to differentiate ourselves from a product perspective.

因此，它應該繼續為我們提供從產品角度脫穎而出的機會。

And the last point, not to hit it too hard, is that the work we're doing right now in every one of our brands, including Tru and Hampton and everything else, is about taking -- making them higher-margin businesses and taking -- creating more labor efficiencies, particularly in the areas of housekeeping, food and beverage and other areas.

最後一點，不要太強調，我們現在在每個品牌中所做的工作，包括 Tru 和 Hampton 以及其他所有品牌，都是為了獲取——使它們成為利潤率更高的業務並獲取——提高勞動效率，特別是在家事、食品和飲料等領域。

So they're going to -- when we get out of the crisis, those businesses will be higher margin and require less labor than they did pre-COVID.

因此，當我們擺脫危機時，這些企業的利潤率將比新冠疫情爆發前更高，並且需要的勞動力更少。

So that will -- also sort of factored for in my commentary.

因此，這也將在我的評論中考慮。

But I think that, hopefully, the net of it is, as it goes up, it's done over a longer period of time and it's done in a sort of thoughtful way.

但我認為，希望它的網路是，隨著它的上升，它是在更長的時間內完成的，並且是以一種深思熟慮的方式完成的。

Next question comes from Patrick Scholes with Truist Securities.

下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Patrick Scholes。

Curious as to your interest at the moment in tuck-in brand acquisitions today versus sort of your historical normal strategy of building brands from scratch, specifically interest in perhaps buying international brands or international private brands.

很好奇您現在對收購品牌的興趣與您從頭開始建立品牌的歷史正常策略的興趣，特別是對購買國際品牌或國際自有品牌的興趣。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Patrick.

謝謝，派崔克。

A good question and one we certainly -- we get frequently.

這是一個很好的問題，也是我們常遇到的問題。

I don't think my view's changed at all.

我認為我的觀點根本沒有改變。

I mean, I think I've been saying for 13 years, since we bought nothing, we've gone from a family of 9 brands to 18 brands.

我的意思是，我想我已經說了 13 年了，自從我們什麼也沒買以來，我們已經從 9 個品牌變成了 18 個品牌。

So we've doubled it in the time I've been here and we haven't bought one of them.

所以我來這裡的時候我們已經把它增加了一倍，但我們還沒有買其中一個。

We've organically developed every single one of them.

我們有機地開發了其中的每一項。

So for my entire time here, I've been saying, never say never, right?

所以在我在這裡的整個時間裡，我一直在說，永遠不要說永遠，對吧？

You've heard my speech.

你已經聽過我的演講了。

If it passes all the right filters, we'd consider it, but nothing has, and so I think not necessarily the path is indicative of the future, but it sort of tells you our predisposition.

如果它通過了所有正確的過濾器，我們會考慮它，但什麼都沒有，所以我認為這條路徑不一定預示著未來，但它有點告訴你我們的傾向。

And so I would say, never say never.

所以我想說，永遠不要說永遠。

But the filter is a very tight filtration system, which is we think we got the best brand portfolio in the business.

但過濾器是一個非常嚴格的過濾系統，我們認為我們擁有業內最好的品牌組合。

We think that is -- that can be proven scientifically by the fact that every one of our brands is a market share leader.

我們認為，這一點可以透過我們的每個品牌都是市場份額領導者這一事實得到科學證明。

Every one that we've developed, we think, is purpose-built around exactly what customers want, and we like that.

我們認為，我們開發的每一款產品都是專門圍繞客戶的需求而設計的，我們喜歡這一點。

And so anything that we would look to acquire would have to sort of meet that profile, like we don't want to go backwards because we don't have to.

因此，我們希望獲得的任何東西都必須滿足這項要求，就像我們不想倒退一樣，因為我們沒有必要這樣做。

We have pretty much every category covered.

我們幾乎涵蓋了所有類別。

If something is not covered, we could launch it.

如果有什麼內容沒有被涵蓋，我們可以啟動它。

I don't think you'll see us launch a whole lot of new brands in the short term.

我認為您不會在短期內看到我們推出大量新品牌。

But why would we do that?

但我們為什麼要這麼做呢？

We have all the segments generally covered that we want to cover.

我們已經涵蓋了我們想要涵蓋的所有細分市場。

We have the best brands.

我們有最好的品牌。

Why would we pick up something that wasn't superb in the same way that we then have to be distracted trying to fix and that we paid a lot of money for, which leads me to the next filter, which is economics.

為什麼我們會選擇一些不那麼出色的東西，就像我們必須分心去嘗試修復並且我們花了很多錢一樣，這讓我想到了下一個過濾器，那就是經濟學。

If you do the simple math, we're developing these brands for nothing, not to make it -- and so we have an infinite yield every time we do it.

如果你做簡單的數學計算，我們開發這些品牌是免費的，而不是為了成功——所以每次我們這樣做都會有無限的收益。

Every time we do a Tru or a Home2 and these things become mega brands, they become billion -- multibillion-dollar businesses over time.

每次我們推出 Tru 或 Home2，這些東西都會成為超級品牌，隨著時間的推移，它們會成為數十億美元的業務。

It's an infinite return because we've effectively invested just sweat equity, so something, but not much.

這是無限的回報，因為我們實際上只投資了汗水資產，所以有一些，但不多。

So when we look at buying stuff, we haven't found anything that was perfect, that doesn't require a lot of elbow grease, and you're paying a lot of money for it.

因此，當我們考慮購買東西時，我們還沒有找到任何完美的東西，不需要大量的苦力，而且你要為此付出很多錢。

So we just -- again, never say never.

所以我們再次強調，永遠不要說永遠。

But that's sort of how we think about it.

但這就是我們的想法。

Now your comment -- your question also implied like region -- sort of regional process.

現在你的評論——你的問題也暗示了類似區域——某種區域進程。

That's where maybe -- I hate to say this and have it become a headline, because I think the likelihood is we're not going to do that.

這就是也許——我不想這麼說並讓它成為頭條新聞，因為我認為我們很可能不會這樣做。

But there are sort of smaller regional brands and places where maybe we want a stronger foothold that aren't -- that don't show up a whole lot in the radar, but for what they are, are very, very good.

但有一些較小的區域品牌和地方，我們可能想要一個更強大的立足點，但它們並沒有在雷達上出現太多，但就它們本身而言，它們非常非常好。

And so we've looked at a bunch of those over time.

隨著時間的推移，我們已經研究了其中的一些內容。

And we'll continue to do that.

我們將繼續這樣做。

The net result has been, while we've looked at a bunch of them, we haven't done any.

最終的結果是，雖然我們已經研究了其中的一些，但我們還沒有採取任何行動。

And again, I would say -- I would condition everybody to say, we like what we got.

我要再說一次——我會讓每個人都說，我們喜歡我們所得到的。

We think we got the -- no offense to our competitors, we think we have the best setup for the future in the industry.

我們認為我們得到了——無意冒犯我們的競爭對手，我們認為我們擁有行業未來的最佳設置。

And the last thing we want to do is botch it by either bringing brands that, like my father used to say, you hang with the dogs, you get the fleas.

我們最不想做的就是引入那些品牌，就像我父親常說的那樣，“你和狗在一起，你就會得到跳蚤”，從而搞砸了。

We don't want to bring stuff in that messes up the portfolio.

我們不想引入一些會擾亂投資組合的東西。

And we're intensely focused on good capital allocation.

我們非常關注良好的資本配置。

I was -- those are my origins in business, being a good capital allocator.

我是──這就是我的商業起源，成為優秀的資本配置者。

And so when you put it together, I think, not high likelihood, but never impossible.

所以當你把它放在一起時，我認為可能性不大，但絕不是不可能的。

Next question will come from Robin Farley with UBS.

下一個問題將由瑞銀集團的羅賓法利提出。

I actually have 2 half questions, since they're both follow-ups.

我實際上有兩個半問題，因為它們都是後續問題。

One is just on the group commentary and you talked about how much better the second half looks.

其中一個是關於小組評論，你談到下半場看起來好多了。

I've got to think that for '22, there will be group events that haven't, at that point, taken place in 3 years.

我必須想到，22 年將會有 3 年來沒有舉辦過的團體活動。

I've got to think your volume for '22 would be better than '19.

我認為你 22 年的銷量會比 19 年更好。

Is it just too early to see that...

現在看到這個是不是太早了…

It's too early.

太早了。

I think when we get into the second half of this year, that my own belief, I should hardly say this, but it's like I said to our team the other day, do not give away space in 2022 too cheap, like -- because I think there's going to be gargantuan demand.

我認為，當我們進入今年下半年時，我自己的信念，我幾乎不應該這麼說，但這就像我前幾天對我們的團隊說的那樣，不要在2022 年放棄太便宜的空間，就像是——因為我認為將會有巨大的需求。

And as a result, more pricing power than people think just because you -- people have accumulated all sorts of needs that are going to get released, and it takes time to plan.

結果，定價能力比人們想像的要大，因為人們已經累積了各種即將釋放的需求，並且需要時間來規劃。

So what you're going to see in the second half of this year is, I think, the big uptick will be in the SMERF business because those are smaller groups.

因此，我認為今年下半年你將看到 SMERF 業務將大幅成長，因為這些群體規模較小。

They can have -- the planning is not as time-consuming.

他們可以——計劃不那麼耗時。

The lead times aren't.

交貨時間不是。

The big stuff, it takes time when you're doing 1,000-person or multi-thousand-person conventions.

最重要的是，當您舉辦 1,000 人或數千人的會議時，這需要時間。

Even if you're doing it hybrid, it takes a lot of planning.

即使您採用混合方式，也需要進行大量規劃。

And so that's really almost, at this point, got to start to fall into next year.

因此，從這一點來看，實際上幾乎要開始進入明年了。

So yes, I think if all goes according to plan in the first half of this year with vaccinations and there's a reality that people feel like they can start to congregate again, being intelligent about it, but do it in a safe way, I think you'll -- in the second half of this year, you'll see a bunch of demand that will dump into next year on stuff that requires planning.

所以，是的，我認為，如果今年上半年疫苗接種一切按計劃進行，並且現實是人們感覺他們可以再次開始聚集，對此保持明智，但我認為以安全的方式進行你會——在今年下半年，你會看到大量需求將湧入明年，需要規劃的東西。

Great.

偉大的。

Super helpful.

超有幫助。

And then my other follow-up was on the unit growth comments.

然後我的另一個後續行動是關於單位成長的評論。

And I think your comments about next year were maybe better than what some had worried about.

我認為你對明年的評論可能比一些人擔心的要好。

Maybe '21 is benefiting from some of the construction in '20 that had been delayed.

也許'21'正受益於'20'被推遲的一些建設。

So I guess when you talked about 4% to 5% for the next few years and this year being at the higher end of that, does that sound like that maybe '22 would be at the lower end?

所以我想當你談到未來幾年的 4% 到 5% 以及今年處於較高端時，這聽起來是不是 22 年會處於較低端？

I mean that there's maybe going to be a little bit of an air pocket for new development that would have started in the last 12 months.

我的意思是，對於過去 12 個月內開始的新開發項目來說，可能會有一些空氣袋。

Is that how we should kind of think about those (inaudible)?

我們該如何思考這些（聽不清楚）？

Yes.

是的。

I don't think it would be that low.

我認為不會那麼低。

I think we are definitely -- I mean, we had 5.1% last year.

我認為我們絕對是——我的意思是，去年我們有 5.1%。

We delivered a lot more than we thought.

我們交付的東西比我們想像的要多得多。

Just as we look at this year, there's a lot of stuff in production.

就像我們今年看到的那樣，有很多東西正在生產中。

We think, again, we have really good momentum on conversions, which is going to help us more this year than last.

我們再次認為，我們在轉換方面擁有非常好的勢頭，這將比去年​​對我們有更多幫助。

It will help again even more so in '22.

到了 22 年，這將再次發揮更大的作用。

And then there's just stuff that's moving through that was under construction or was put under construction that's going to help us.

然後，正在建設中或正在建設中的東西將對我們有所幫助。

I think next year, I mean, we still -- we put 75,000 rooms under construction last year.

我想明年，我的意思是，我們去年仍然建造了 75,000 個房間。

And most of that is not going to deliver this year.

其中大部分今年不會實現。

It's going to deliver in the next.

下期就要出貨了。

And as I said, we're ramping on conversions.

正如我所說，我們正在加大轉換力度。

So I do think that 2022 could be lower than 2021, but not by the degree that you're suggesting.

所以我確實認為 2022 年可能會低於 2021 年，但不會達到你建議的程度。

I still think that ultimately, our goal is to be sort of in that 4% to 5% range in all those years.

我仍然認為，最終我們的目標是在這些年保持在 4% 到 5% 的範圍內。

Next question will be from Richard Clarke with Bernstein.

下一個問題將由理查德·克拉克和伯恩斯坦提出。

Just a couple of questions on your conversations with owners.

關於您與業主的談話，只有幾個問題。

You used to talk about some upside on the take rate as you sort of rolled contracts over.

您曾經談論過在延期合約時採取率的一些好處。

I'm just wondering, as we've gone through this pandemic, are you able to enact on that and push the sort of fee percentages up?

我只是想知道，當我們經歷了這場大流行時，您是否能夠制定並提高費用百分比？

And also, you gave them some CapEx holidays.

而且，你給了他們一些資本支出假期。

How urgent is it that they kind of begin that renovation process?

他們開始改造過程有多緊急？

And when would you expect that to restart?

您預計什麼時候會重新啟動？

Both good questions.

兩個問題都很好。

So on the first, our published rates, you would say, if you average all our brands, is about 5.6% in license fees.

因此，首先，我們公佈的費率，如果您對我們所有品牌進行平均，您可能會說，許可費約為 5.6%。

We're about 5% right now in terms of effective rate, in terms of where people are in the cycle.

就有效率而言，就人們所處的週期而言，我們現在大約是 5%。

We're not going to, anytime soon, be increasing those rates in an absolute sense.

我們不會在短期內絕對意義上提高這些費率。

But by definition, every time a contract turns, it goes to the new rate.

但根據定義，每次合約到期時，都會採用新的費率。

And I think -- I'm not saying anybody likes it, but that's sort of standard -- the standard within the industry.

我認為——我並不是說任何人都喜歡它，但這就是一種標準——行業內的標準。

It's certainly what we've always done, and we'll continue to do that.

這當然是我們一直在做的事情，而且我們將繼續這樣做。

So you'll see that sort of grind up about 10, 15 basis points a year.

所以你會看到這種情況每年上漲約 10、15 個基點。

And then when we get to the other side of this, depending on the economics and ultimate market share and all those things, obviously, we can look at what we do with our fee structures.

然後，當我們到達另一邊時，根據經濟狀況和最終市場份額以及所有這些因素，顯然我們可以看看我們如何處理我們的費用結構。

But we're going to sort of keep -- we think that they are good where they are, and we'll keep -- our effective rates will keep grinding up as you have natural rollover.

但我們會保持——我們認為它們在目前的位置上很好，而且我們會保持——隨著自然的展期，我們的有效利率將繼續上升。

On the CapEx side, it's really important.

在資本支出方面，這非常重要。

It's a delicate balance.

這是一種微妙的平衡。

The obvious one, which is you got to keep the portfolio.

最明顯的一點就是你必須保留投資組合。

We have the market share leaders in every one of these categories.

我們在每一類別中都擁有市佔率領先者。

Part of that is obviously service, a part of it's product.

其中一部分顯然是服務，是產品的一部分。

And part of that product is about having fresh product, consistent and high-quality product.

該產品的一部分是關於擁有新鮮的產品、一致的高品質產品。

We're very religious about it.

我們對此非常虔誠。

We have given a lot of relief.

我們給予了很多救濟。

Thankfully, we went into the crisis in a really good position because we've been unbelievably diligent and disciplined, and our owner community over time has recognized that to get those premiums, they have to keep their assets up.

值得慶幸的是，我們在危機中處於一個非常有利的位置，因為我們一直非常勤奮和自律，而且我們的業主社區隨著時間的推移已經認識到，為了獲得這些保費，他們必須保持資產不變。

And so we went into the crisis a year ago in a good place.

因此，我們一年前在一個好的情況下陷入了危機。

We have the ability, we think, to give them a bit of grace for a period of time and not have a significant impact with our customer base.

我們認為，我們有能力在一段時間內給予他們一些寬限，而不會對我們的客戶群產生重大影響。

But as we get to the other side of this, yes, we're going to have to get back to having that kind of discipline, which is not just in our interest, it's in our owners' interest if they want to continue to drive results.

但當我們到達另一邊時，是的，我們將不得不重新建立這種紀律，這不僅符合我們的利益，也符合我們車主的利益，如果他們想繼續開車的話結果。

I suspect that that's going to be next year and not this year, just in the sense that while I think the second half we're going to be in a very different world, we're going to have to let folks get back on their feet.

我懷疑這將是明年而不是今年，只是在這個意義上，雖然我認為下半年我們將處於一個非常不同的世界，但我們將不得不讓人們重新回到他們的生活中。

And I think given, again, the quality of -- on average of our brands and the upkeep of the brands and the individual hotels going into this, I think we can do that without it being harmful.

我認為，考慮到我們品牌的平均品質以及品牌和個別酒店的維護，我認為我們可以做到這一點，而不會造成傷害。

The next question will be from Smedes Rose with Citi.

下一個問題將由花旗銀行的 Smedes Rose 提出。

I wanted to just follow up on -- you talked about some of the group bookings improving sequentially, and I know it's too early to talk about '22.

我想跟進——您談到了一些團體預訂的連續改善，我知道現在談論 22 還為時過早。

But on your patterns that you're seeing, is there anything just from a geographic perspective in the U.S. that's showing up so far in terms of maybe shifting away from higher-cost cities that had already been underperforming from a RevPAR perspective in the pandemic into lower cost?

但根據您所看到的模式，從地理角度來看，美國迄今為止是否有任何跡象表明，從大流行期間的 RevPAR 角度來看，成本較高的城市可能已經表現不佳，更低的花費？

Yes.

是的。

The geography is exactly what I think you're implying in the question and what you would think.

我認為地理正是您在問題中所暗示的以及您的想法。

And right now, it is less in the primary markets and more in the secondary and tertiary, just because of what's been going on in a lot of the big cities and the greater density of population.

目前，一級市場的數量較少，而二級市場和三級市場的數量較多，這只是因為許多大城市正在發生的情況和人口密度較大。

And reality is, as I said, a lot of the uptick that we're seeing into the second half of the year is SMERF business.

正如我所說，現實是，今年下半年我們看到的大部分成長都是 SMERF 業務。

And the nature of that business lends itself more to those geographies.

該業務的性質較適合這些地區。

I fully expect, as I said, when we sort of get a bit of the all-clear and people start to think about group in a very different way, and I hope that's in the second half of the year, you'll start to see those patterns normalize.

正如我所說，我完全預計，當我們的情況有所改善時，人們開始以一種非常不同的方式思考團隊，我希望在今年下半年，你會開始看到這些模式正常化。

But given that it is more in the SMERF segment, it by definition, ends up being more -- disproportionately outside of the big urban centers as compared to normal demand patterns at the moment.

但考慮到它更集中在 SMERF 領域，根據定義，它最終會更多——與目前的正常需求模式相比，不成比例地位於大城市中心之外。

Okay.

好的。

And then just a very quick follow-up.

然後就是一個非常快速的跟進。

I'm sorry if I missed this, but what was the impairment charge that you took in the quarter that was an add-back?

如果我錯過了這一點，我很抱歉，但是您在本季度中扣除的減值費用是多少？

I just want to know what that was related to.

我只是想知道這與什麼有關。

Yes, mostly in -- almost entirely in the ownership segment, Smedes.

是的，主要是——幾乎完全是在所有權部分，Smedes。

We -- this was announced in the pre-announcement for the bond deal as well on what we thought it was going to be.

我們——這在債券交易的預公告中以及我們的想法中都已宣布。

But it was mostly goodwill related to the ownership segment that's just having to do with the duration of the crisis and the recoverability of those assets and [obviously] on cash.

但這主要是與所有權部分相關的商譽，這與危機的持續時間和這些資產的可收回性以及[顯然]現金有關。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question-and-answer session.

女士們先生們，我們的問答環節到此結束。

I would like to turn the conference back over to Chris Nassetta for any closing remarks.

我想將會議轉回克里斯·納塞塔（Chris Nassetta）發表閉幕詞。

Again, thank you guys for joining us today.

再次感謝大家今天加入我們。

2020 will go in the record books, for sure, not the greatest year for our company in our 101-year history or the industry certainly.

2020 年肯定會被載入史冊，但對於我們公司 101 年歷史或產業來說，這肯定不是最偉大的一年。

But as I said in my prepared comments, we are proud of what we were able to accomplish.

但正如我在準備好的評論中所說，我們為我們能夠取得的成就感到自豪。

We think the business is in a terrific position.

我們認為該業務處於有利地位。

We are certainly of the mind and hopeful, as I've described in many ways, that as we get to spring/summer, and certainly in the second half of the year, we're going to be in a very different place, and we'll look forward after the first quarter, which will get us to the early spring to hopefully be able to comment on those positive trends.

正如我在許多方面所描述的那樣，我們當然有想法並充滿希望，當我們進入春季/夏季，當然還有下半年，我們將處於一個非常不同的地方，並且我們將在第一季之後進行展望，這將使我們能夠在早春時對這些積極趨勢做出評論。

Thanks again, and everybody stay well.

再次感謝，祝大家一切順利。

The conference has now concluded.

會議現已結束。

Thank you for attending today's presentation.

感謝您參加今天的演講。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。