希爾頓酒店 (HLT) 2021 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Hilton First Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

早安，歡迎參加希爾頓 2021 年第一季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Jill Slattery, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Development. You may begin.

現在我想將會議交給投資者關係和企業發展資深副總裁 Jill Slattery。你可以開始了。

Thank you, Chad. Welcome to Hilton's First Quarter 2021 Earnings Call. Before we begin, we would like to remind you that our discussions this morning will include forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those indicated in the forward-looking statements and forward-looking statements made today speak only to our expectations as of today. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise these statements. For a discussion of some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ, please see the Risk Factors section of our most recently filed Form 10-K.

謝謝你，查德。歡迎參加希爾頓 2021 年第一季財報電話會議。在開始之前，我們想提醒您，我們今天上午的討論將包括前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與前瞻性聲明中所示的結果有重大差異，今天發表的前瞻性聲明僅代表我們截至目前為止的預期。我們不承擔公開更新或修改這些聲明的義務。有關可能導致實際結果不同的一些因素的討論，請參閱我們最近提交的表格 10-K 的風險因素部分。

In addition, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures on this call. You can find reconciliations of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures discussed in today's call in our earnings press release and on our website at ir.hilton.com.

此外，我們將在本次電話會議上提及某些非公認會計準則財務指標。您可以在我們的收益新聞稿和我們的網站 ir.hilton.com 上找到今天電話會議中討論的非 GAAP 與 GAAP 財務指標的調整表。

This morning, Chris Nassetta, our President and Chief Executive Officer, will provide an overview of the current operating environment. Kevin Jacobs, our Chief Financial Officer and President, Global Development, will then review our first quarter results. Following their remarks, we'll be happy to take your questions.

今天早上，我們的總裁兼執行長 Chris Nassetta 將概述當前的營運環境。我們的財務長兼全球發展總裁 Kevin Jacobs 隨後將回顧我們第一季的業績。在他們的發言之後，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

With that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Chris.

至此，我很高興將電話轉給克里斯。

Thank you, Jill. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us today. It has been a little over a year since the pandemic started. Over that time, we acted swiftly to address the challenges we face, so we could quickly turn our focus to best positioning ourselves towards recovery and beyond. I'm really proud of how we've set up the company for the future. And most importantly, I'm grateful to our team members who have continued to lead with hospitality and to all of our stakeholders for their ongoing support.

謝謝你，吉爾。大家早安，感謝您今天加入我們。距離疫情爆發已經過去一年多了。在那段時間裡，我們迅速採取行動應對所面臨的挑戰，因此我們可以迅速將重點轉向為復甦及未來做好最佳定位。我對我們為未來建立公司的方式感到非常自豪。最重要的是，我感謝我們的團隊成員繼續熱情好客，並感謝所有利害關係人的持續支持。

In the first quarter, system-wide RevPAR decreased 38% year-over-year and 53% versus 2019. Rising COVID cases and tightening travel restrictions, particularly across Europe and Asia Pacific, weighed on demand through January and most of February. However, March marked a turning point. As we lapped the start of the U.S. lockdowns, RevPAR turned positive up more than 23% year-over-year. System-wide occupancy reached 55% by the end of the month driven by strong leisure demand. As expected, recovery in group and corporate transient continued to lag, but both segments showed sequential improvement versus the fourth quarter.

第一季度，全系統的RevPAR 年減38%，與2019 年相比下降53%。的需求造成壓力。然而，三月標誌著一個轉捩點。隨著美國封鎖開始，每間可用客房收入 (RevPAR) 年增超過 23%。在強勁的休閒需求的推動下，截至本月底，全系統入住率達到 55%。正如預期的那樣，集團和企業瞬態的復甦繼續滯後，但這兩個領域均較第四季度連續改善。

Overall, this positive momentum has continued into the second quarter. While recovery varies by region and country, we can see the light at the end of the tunnel. In the U.S., more than 50% of adults have received at least 1 dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. As a result, we're seeing a significant lift in forward bookings and occupancy, which is now around 60% as well as lengthening booking windows. This mirrors trends in other countries around the world. For instance, China is running in the low 70s occupancy. We do expect this momentum to continue . Vaccine distribution, coupled with relaxed travel restrictions and increasing consumer confidence should drive further RevPAR improvements in the coming months and quarters. In fact, we are on pace to see record leisure demand in the U.S. over the summer months with April bookings for the summer exceeding 2019 peak levels by nearly 10%. We also expect continued corporate office reopenings to drive a meaningful pickup in business transient demand towards the back half of the year.

總體而言，這種積極勢頭一直持續到第二季​​度。雖然恢復情況因地區和國家而異，但我們可以看到隧道盡頭的曙光。在美國，超過 50% 的成年人已接種至少 1 劑 COVID-19 疫苗。因此，我們看到提前預訂和入住率顯著提升，目前約為 60%，預訂窗口也在延長。這反映了世界其他國家的趨勢。例如，中國的入住率處於 70 多歲的低水平。我們確實預計這種勢頭將持續下去。疫苗的分發，加上旅行限制的放鬆和消費者信心的增強，應該會推動未來幾個月和幾季的 RevPAR 進一步改善。事實上，我們預計美國夏季的休閒需求將創歷史新高，4 月夏季的預訂量將超過 2019 年的峰值水準近 10%。我們也預計，公司辦公室的持續重新開放將推動今年下半年商業臨時需求的大幅回升。

Based on what we've seen in China and pockets of the U.S., once restrictions are lifted and offices reopen, business travel returns. In the first quarter, business transient revenue was roughly 75% of 2019 levels in states that were further along in their reopening process.

根據我們在中國和美國部分地區的觀察，一旦限制取消、辦公室重新開放，商務旅行就會回歸。第一季度，在重新開放進程進一步推進的各州，企業短暫收入約為 2019 年水準的 75%。

Additionally, recent forecast for nonresidential fixed investment are up more than 3 percentage points from prior projections to 7.8%, indicating even greater optimism around business spending.

此外，最近對非住宅固定投資的預測比先前的預測上升了 3 個百分點以上，達到 7.8%，顯示企業支出更加樂觀。

On the group side, forward booking activity continues to improve month-over-month. Group bookings made in the first quarter for the back half of the year were roughly flat with 2019 booking activity, suggesting customers are increasingly optimistic about safety measures and loosening pandemic restrictions. Near-term group bookings continue to be driven largely by social events and smaller group meetings, but we are seeing a slow shift back to a more normal mix of business with corporate group leads up more than 70% for future periods.

在團體方面，提前預約活動逐月持續改善。今年下半年第一季的團體預訂量與 2019 年的預訂活動大致持平，顯示客戶對安全措施和放鬆疫情限制越來越樂觀。近期團體預約繼續主要由社交活動和小型團體會議推動，但我們看到業務組合正在緩慢轉變，企業團體預訂量在未來一段時間內將增長 70% 以上。

Associations and trade shows have also started opening up housing and registration sites for events later this year, further signs of moving forward with in-person group meetings.

協會和貿易展覽也已開始為今年稍後的活動開放住房和註冊地點，這進一步表明面對面的團體會議正在向前推進。

As we look out to next year, our group position is roughly 85% of peak 2019 levels with rate increases versus 2019. Group bookings were up in the mid-teens for 2023 versus 2019. In fact, last week, I was in Mexico to chair the World Travel and Tourism Council's Global Summit where more than 800 participants from all over the world attended in person and thousands more attended virtually. The conference demonstrated that it is possible to meet in a safe way and that hybrid events can be incredibly effective at expanding participation and enhancing collaboration. It was great to be in the same room with other hospitality and government leaders talking about the bright future that lies ahead for our industry. The event made me even more optimistic for our recovery and confident that we are beginning to see a new era of travel emerge.

展望明年，我們的團體預訂量約為2019 年高峰水準的85%，且價格較2019 年有所增加。 ，我在墨西哥主持世界旅行和旅遊理事會的全球高峰會，來自世界各地的 800 多名與會者親自出席，數千人透過虛擬方式出席。會議表明，以安全的方式舉行會議是可能的，而且混合活動在擴大參與和加強合作方面可以非常有效。很高興能與其他酒店業和政府領導人在同一個房間談論我們行業的光明未來。這次活動讓我對我們的復甦更加樂觀，並對我們開始看到旅行新時代的出現充滿信心。

Turning to development. During the quarter, we added 105 hotels totaling more than 16,500 rooms to our system and achieved net unit growth of 5.8%. We celebrated the openings of our 100th Curio and our 50th Tapestry hotel demonstrating the strength of our conversion-friendly brands. Overall conversions accounted for approximately 24% of additions in the quarter.

轉向發展。本季度，我們在系統中新增了 105 家飯店，客房總數超過 16,500 間，實現了 5.8% 的淨單位成長。我們慶祝了第 100 家 Curio 酒店和第 50 家 Tapestry 酒店的開業，展示了我們轉化友善品牌的實力。總體轉換量約佔本季新增量的 24%。

We also continued to enhance our resort footprint during the quarter with the openings of the 1,500-room Virgin Hotel Las Vegas, the Hilton Abu Dhabi Yas Island, the all-inclusive Yucatan Resort Playa del Carmen and 6 spectacular properties along the California Coast. Customers have even more opportunities to stay with us as travel resumes. Building on our already impressive portfolio in the world's most desirable locations, during the quarter, we signed agreements to bring our Waldorf Astoria and Canopy brands to the Seychelles. The properties are scheduled to open in 2023, joining the Mango House Seychelles, LXR Hotel and Resorts set to open later this summer.

本季我們也持續擴大度假村業務，開設了擁有1,500 間客房的拉斯維加斯維珍酒店、阿布達比亞斯島希爾頓酒店、卡門海灘尤卡坦全包式度假村以及加州海岸沿線的6 家壯觀酒店。隨著旅行的恢復，客戶將有更多機會入住我們的酒店。基於我們在世界上最理想的地點已經令人印象深刻的投資組合，我們在本季度簽署了協議，將我們的華爾道夫酒店和 Canopy 品牌引入塞席爾。這些酒店計劃於 2023 年開業，加入將於今年夏天晚些時候開業的塞席爾芒果屋 (Mango House Seychelles)、LXR 酒店及度假村 (LXR Hotel and Resorts)。

In the quarter, we signed nearly 22,000 rooms modestly ahead of our expectations. This included our first Signia hotel. Additionally, through our strategic partnership with Country Garden to introduce the Home2 Suites brand to China, we added more than 5,000 rooms to our pipeline. We're excited for the opportunities this partnership provides with one of our fastest-growing brands.

本季度，我們簽約了近 22,000 間客房，略高於我們的預期。這包括我們的第一家西嘉酒店。此外，透過與碧桂園建立策略合作夥伴關係，將Home2 Suites品牌引入中國，我們增加了超過5,000間客房。我們對與我們成長最快的品牌之一的這種合作夥伴關係所提供的機會感到興奮。

Home2 recently celebrated its tenth anniversary, marking the milestone with nearly 1,000 rooms, hotels open and in the pipeline. On Entrepreneur Magazine's Annual Franchise 500 List, which featured 11 of our 18 brands, Home2 was the #2 hotel brand ranking only behind Hampton.

Home2 最近慶祝了成立十週年，以近 1,000 間客房和酒店開業和籌建中來紀念這一里程碑。在《企業家》雜誌的年度特許經營 500 強名單中，Home2 是排名第二的酒店品牌，僅次於漢普頓，該名單囊括了我們 18 個品牌中的 11 個。

Overall, we are very happy with our development progress and excited for additional growth opportunities with more than half of our 399,000-room pipeline under construction, We're confident in our ability to grow net units in the mid-single-digit range for the next several years and continue to expect growth in the 4.5% to 5% range in 2021.

總體而言，我們對我們的開發進展感到非常滿意，並對額外的成長機會感到興奮，我們 399,000 間客房中的一半以上正在建設中。增長。

And in an environment where safety and cleanliness are top priorities for travelers, we continue to create more opportunities for our guests to enjoy a contactless experience from pre-arrival to post-checkout. Our digital key feature, which enables guests to bypass the front desk and go straight to the rooms is now available in the vast majority of our hotels worldwide.

在安全和清潔是旅客首要考慮的環境中，我們不斷為客人創造更多機會，讓他們從抵達前到退房後享受非接觸式體驗。我們的數位鑰匙功能使客人能夠繞過前台直接進入客房，現已在我們全球絕大多數酒店提供。

Additionally, we've joined forces with Lyft to mobilize Honors members to contribute to the Lyft Vaccine Access Initiative, which funds rides for those in need of reliable transportation to their vaccine appointment. We're excited to continue the momentum of our partnership with Lyft by supporting this important cause.

此外，我們還與 Lyft 聯手，動員榮譽會員為 Lyft 疫苗接種計劃做出貢獻，該計劃為需要可靠交通前往疫苗預約的人提供乘車服務。我們很高興能夠透過支持這項重要事業來繼續保持與 Lyft 的合作夥伴關係。

During the quarter, we also launched 2 new co-branded credit cards in Japan, building on our 25-year partnership with American Express and marking the first time our co-branded cards have been made available to customers outside the United States. These cards are designed with both frequent and occasional travelers in mind and offer customers the opportunity to earn Hilton Honors bonus points on everyday spending as well as at our properties worldwide.

本季度，我們也在日本推出了兩張新的聯名信用卡，以我們與美國運通 25 年的合作關係為基礎，這也是我們首次向美國以外的客戶提供聯名卡。這些卡在設計時考慮到了經常旅行者和偶爾旅行者的需求，讓客戶有機會透過日常消費以及在我們全球酒店的消費賺取希爾頓榮譽客會獎勵積分。

As a result of our strong partnerships, industry-leading brands, and unmatched value proposition, our loyalty program continues attracting new members. We ended the first quarter with more than 115 million Honors members, up roughly 8% year-over-year with membership increasing across every major region despite lower demand due to the pandemic.

由於我們強大的合作夥伴關係、業界領先的品牌和無與倫比的價值主張，我們的忠誠度計劃不斷吸引新會員。截至第一季末，我們的榮譽會員數量已超過 1.15 億，年增約 8%，儘管疫情導致需求下降，但每個主要地區的會員數量均有所增加。

As I reflect on the quarter and the past year, I'm very proud of the determination, creativity and hospitality that our Hilton team members have demonstrated. This earned us recognition by Fortune and Great Place to Work as the #1 Best Big Company to Work For and #3 Best Company to Work For in the United States.

當我回顧本季和過去一年時，我對希爾頓團隊成員所展現的決心、創造力和熱情好客感到非常自豪。這使我們被《財星》雜誌和 Great Place to Work 評為美國排名第一的最佳工作大公司和排名第三的最佳工作公司。

Overall, I'm pleased with our first quarter results and feel very good about the momentum for the remainder of the year. I'm optimistic for the future of travel and for Hilton as we emerge stronger and better positioned continuing to drive value for our guests, our owners, our communities and, of course, our shareholders.

總體而言，我對我們第一季的業績感到滿意，並對今年剩餘時間的勢頭感到非常滿意。我對旅遊業和希爾頓的未來持樂觀態度，因為我們將變得更加強大、地位更加優越，繼續為我們的客人、業主、社區，當然還有我們的股東創造價值。

With that, I'm going to turn the call over to Kevin to give more details on our results for the quarter.

這樣，我將把電話轉給凱文，以提供有關本季業績的更多詳細資訊。

Thanks, Chris, and good morning, everyone. During the quarter, system-wide RevPAR declined 38.4% versus the prior year on a comparable and currency-neutral basis as rising COVID cases and reinstated travel restrictions and lockdowns disrupted the demand environment, especially across Europe and Asia Pacific. However, occupancy improved sequentially throughout the quarter, increasing more than 20 points. Adjusted EBITDA was $198 million in the first quarter, down 45% year-over-year. Results reflected the continued impact of the pandemic on global travel demand, including temporary suspensions at some of our hotels during the quarter. Management and franchise fees decreased 34%, less than RevPAR decrease as franchise fee declines were somewhat mitigated by better-than-expected license fees and development fees.

謝謝克里斯，大家早安。本季度，由於新冠病例增加以及旅行限制和封鎖的恢復擾亂了需求環境，特別是在歐洲和亞太地區，整個系統範圍內的 RevPAR 在可比和貨幣中性的基礎上比上年下降了 38.4%。然而，整個季度的入住率持續改善，增幅超過 20 個點。第一季調整後 EBITDA 為 1.98 億美元，年減 45%。業績反映了疫情對全球旅遊需求的持續影響，包括本季部分飯店的暫時停業。管理費和特許經營費下降了 34%，低於 RevPAR 的降幅，因為好於預期的許可費和開發費在一定程度上緩解了特許經營費的下降。

Additionally, results were helped by continued cost control at both the corporate and property levels. Our ownership portfolio posted a loss for the quarter due to the challenged demand environment. Reinstated lockdowns and travel restrictions in Europe and Japan, coupled with temporary hotel closures and fixed operating costs, including fixed rent payments at some of our leased properties, weighed on our performance. Continued cost control mitigated segment losses. For the quarter, diluted earnings per share adjusted for special items was $0.02.

此外，公司和財產層面持續的成本控制也有助於績效的實現。由於需求環境面臨挑戰，我們的所有權投資組合本季出現虧損。歐洲和日本恢復封鎖和旅行限制，加上飯店暫時關閉和固定營運成本（包括我們一些租賃物業的固定租金支付），對我們的業績造成了壓力。持續的成本控制減輕了部門虧損。本季度，特殊項目調整後的攤薄每股收益為 0.02 美元。

Turning to our regional performance. First quarter comparable U.S. RevPAR declined nearly 37% year-over-year and 50% versus 2019. Demand improved sequentially throughout the quarter with March occupancy 62% higher than January and ending at 55%, the highest level since the pandemic began. Leisure travel continued to lead the recovery, particularly on weekends with warm weather destinations benefiting the most.

轉向我們的區域表現。第一季美國可比RevPAR 年減近37%，與2019 年相比下降50%。最高水平。休閒旅遊繼續引領復甦，尤其是在週末，天氣溫暖的目的地受益最多。

In the Americas outside the U.S., first quarter RevPAR declined 55% year-over-year and 63% versus 2019. Performance recovered in March, but lagged the broader system due to the region's greater dependence on international travel, which remain constrained by tightened travel restrictions.

在美國以外的美洲地區，第一季每間可用客房收入年減55%，與2019 年相比下降63%。的依賴性更大，而國際旅行仍然受到旅行收緊的限制。

In Europe, RevPAR fell 76% year-over-year and 82% versus 2019. Declines were driven by increasing COVID cases and reinstated lockdowns across both the United Kingdom and Continental Europe. Delays in vaccination distribution also disrupted recovery.

在歐洲，每間可用客房收入年減 76%，與 2019 年相比下降 82%。疫苗接種的延誤也擾亂了復原。

In the Middle East and Africa region, RevPAR was down 32% year-over-year and 46% versus 2019. Performance in the region benefited from strong domestic demand and easing restrictions. In the Asia Pacific region, first quarter RevPAR fell 7% year-over-year and 49% versus 2019 as rising infections, lockdowns and border closures weighed on performance early in the quarter. RevPAR in China increased 64% year-over-year with occupancy levels increasing from roughly 35% to roughly 65% during the quarter.

在中東和非洲地區，每間可用客房收入年減 32%，與 2019 年相比下降 46%。在亞太地區，第一季每間可用客房收入年減 7%，與 2019 年相比下降 49%，原因是感染人數上升、封鎖和邊境關閉影響了本季初的業績。本季度，中國的 RevPAR 年增 64%，入住率從約 35% 增加到約 65%。

Both leisure and business transient demand rebounded quickly as restrictions eased with March occupancy in China exceeding 2019 levels.

隨著限制的放鬆，休閒和商務短暫需求迅速反彈，3 月份中國的入住率超過 2019 年的水準。

Turning to development. As Chris mentioned, in the first quarter, we grew net units 5.8% driven primarily by the Americas and Asia Pacific. Tightening restrictions and lockdowns across Europe delayed openings in the region. However, we expect an uptick in development activity as countries continue to reopen.

轉向發展。正如 Chris 所提到的，第一季度，我們的淨銷售量成長了 5.8%，這主要是由美洲和亞太地區推動的。歐洲各地收緊限制和封鎖推遲了該地區的開幕。然而，我們預計隨著各國繼續重新開放，發展活動將會增加。

For the full year, we continue to expect net unit growth of 4.5% to 5%. Signings in the quarter decreased year-over-year due to pre-pandemic comparisons, but exceeded our expectations due to greater-than-expected signings in China, particularly for our Home2 Suites brand. For the year, we expect signings to increase mid-single digits versus 2020.

對於全年，我們繼續預期淨單位成長率為 4.5% 至 5%。由於與大流行前的比較，本季的簽約量比去年同期有所下降，但由於中國的簽約量超出了預期，特別是我們的 Home2 Suites 品牌的簽約量超出了我們的預期。我們預計今年的簽約人數將比 2020 年增加中位數。

Turning to the balance sheet. During the quarter, we took steps to further enhance our liquidity position and preserve financial flexibility. We repaid $500 million of the outstanding balance under our $1.75 billion revolving credit facility and opportunistically executed a favorable debt refinancing transaction to extend our maturities at lower rates. As we look ahead, we remain confident in our balance sheet and liquidity positions as we continue to focus on recovery. Further details on our first quarter can be found in the earnings release we issued earlier this morning. This completes our prepared remarks. We would now like to open the line for any questions you may have. (Operator Instructions)

轉向資產負債表。本季度，我們採取措施進一步增強流動性狀況並保持財務靈活性。我們償還了 17.5 億美元循環信貸額度下的 5 億美元未償餘額，並伺機執行了有利的債務再融資交易，以較低的利率延長我們的期限。展望未來，我們對資產負債表和流動性部位仍然充滿信心，因為我們將繼續關注復甦。有關我們第一季的更多詳細信息，請參閱我們今天早上發布的收益報告。我們準備好的演講到此結束。我們現在願意為您解答任何問題。 （操作員說明）

Chad, can we have our first question?

查德，我們可以問第一個問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions) And the first question will come from Carlo Santarelli with Deutsche Bank.

（操作員說明）第一個問題將由德意志銀行的 Carlo Santarelli 提出。

So Chris, Kevin, you guys gave some helpful data points around kind of the acceleration that you saw throughout the first quarter. And speaking more maybe on the U.S. front, could you guys maybe talk a little bit about March and maybe to the extent you're willing to, April and how kind of -- not only RevPAR trends, I know you gave some data points on occupancy with the 55% exit rate coming out of March, kind of what you've seen from a fee generation on the U.S. side as it pertains to the occupancy gains that you're seeing? And then perhaps, how you're thinking about beyond people coming back into the office. The aspect of pent-up demand within the business and corporate traveler as we get maybe -- it's probably a 4Q event, I think, most of us would assume at this point. But how do you guys think about that?

所以克里斯、凱文，你們提供了一些有用的數據點，圍繞著你們在第一季看到的加速情況。也許更多地談論美國方面，你們能否談談 3 月份，也許在你們願意的範圍內，4 月份以及怎麼樣——不僅是 RevPAR 趨勢，我知道你們提供了一些數據點從3 月份開始，入住率達到55%，這與您所看到的美國方面的費用產生情況類似，因為它與您所看到的入住率增長有關？也許，除了人們回到辦公室之外，你還如何考慮。我認為，我們大多數人此時都會認為，商務和商務旅客中被壓抑的需求方面可能是第四季的事件。但你們對此有何看法？

Boy, that's a lot of questions all embedded in one. But that is probably the most important. I'll cover parts of it. Maybe Kevin will throw some things in, and we'll save a little bit maybe for later because I'm sure others will have similar questions. But thank you, and I do think that is the question du jour. Obviously, as both Kevin and I covered, Carlo, we saw a pretty marked improvement as we marched through the quarter, and that continued into April. In terms of the global data, I think the best way to look at it is against a '19 comparison because looking at it against 2020, particularly right now as you are in the early stages of the pandemic, is relatively useless.

天哪，這裡面有很多問題。但這可能是最重要的。我將介紹其中的一部分。也許凱文會丟掉一些東西，我們可能會留一點以後再使用，因為我確信其他人也會有類似的問題。但謝謝你，我確實認為這是當前的問題。顯然，正如凱文和我所報導的那樣，卡洛，我們在整個季度中看到了相當顯著的進步，並且這種情況一直持續到四月份。就全球數據而言，我認為最好的看待方式是與 19 年進行比較，因為與 2020 年進行比較，特別是現在正處於大流行的早期階段，相對來說毫無用處。

And so -- yes, if you look at January and February, you were globally -- and the U.S. was similar. If you look at it, you were sort of in the 55% to 60% down from a RevPAR point of view. And you picked up about 10 points going down into sort of the mid 40s down in March. And then in April, we -- you had another step-up in your -- into the low 40s. Obviously, May, it's a little early to say, but I would say the trajectory in our mind continues if we look at forward bookings, both on the transient -- on the leisure transient side, which is what's going to dominate the second quarter. It feels like we're going to continue marching on.

所以 - 是的，如果你看看一月和二月，你會發現全球範圍內 - 美國也是類似的。如果你看一下，從 RevPAR 的角度來看，你的收入下降了 55% 到 60%。 3 月份，你的股價上漲了大約 10 個百分點，跌幅約 40 多歲。然後在 4 月份，我們——你們的水平再次提升——進入了 40 多歲。顯然，五月，現在說這個有點早，但我想說，如果我們看看提前預訂，無論是在短暫的還是休閒短暫的方面，我們心目中的軌跡仍在繼續，這將在第二季度佔據主導地位。感覺我們還要繼續前進。

If you look at it by segments, which I obviously have spent a lot of time, and this will sort of get to some of our views on business transient and the group side. If you look at -- if you break down room nights by segments relative to 2019, again, I'm focusing on room nights to sort of take rate for the moment out of this. Leisure in the first quarter was already close to 90% of '19. By the way, for what it's worth, much lower based on lower rated business, but just again, room nights. And business was about 50% in the first quarter. Again, lower if you look at it on a RevPAR basis. And group was about 35% to 40%.

如果你按細分來看，我顯然花了很多時間，這將在某種程度上得出我們對業務瞬態和集團方面的一些看法。如果你看一下——如果你再根據 2019 年的情況對間夜數進行細分，我會再次關注間夜數，以便暫時從中得出比率。第一季的休閒率已經接近19年的90%。順便說一句，就其價值而言，基於評級較低的商務，價格要低得多，但同樣，房間過夜。第一季的業務約為50%。同樣，如果您以 RevPAR 為基礎來看的話，就會更低。而群體大約是35%到40%。

As you march through our expectations for the year, our belief is globally -- and every region will be a little bit different. I'll save a regional question for somebody else because I don't want to do too much of a filibuster on one question. But if you march through the year, my expectation is you're going to have an incredibly robust leisure-driven summer. So we're going to continue to see good progress. We believe the summer will be meaningfully over 2019 peak levels of leisure demand.

當您回顧我們對這一年的期望時，我們的信念是全球性的——每個地區都會略有不同。我會將地區問題留給其他人，因為我不想在一個問題上進行太多的阻撓。但如果你度過這一年，我的期望是你將度過一個令人難以置信的休閒驅動的夏季。因此，我們將繼續看到良好的進展。我們相信夏季休閒需求將顯著超過 2019 年的峰值水平。

As we get into the fall and every day, you're reading the same things that I'm reading, but I'm also, as I'm sure you are, talking to a lot of CEOs of large companies that we deal with or that are friends of mine. And I think clearly, as you get into the summer, many people are starting to bring folks back in the office. Certainly, as you get into the fall, all things sort of being equal in terms of trajectory of vaccination, most businesses are going to be bringing folks back. Maybe not fully -- probably not fully, but on some flexible basis, but a whole lot different than what we've been experiencing.

當我們進入秋天的每一天，你正在閱讀與我正在閱讀的相同的內容，但我也，正如我確信你正在與我們合作的許多大公司的首席執行官交談或者是我的朋友。我清楚地認為，隨著進入夏季，許多人開始將員工帶回辦公室。當然，隨著進入秋季，疫苗接種的情況大致相同，大多數企業都會讓人們回來。也許不完全——也許不完全，但在某種靈活的基礎上，但與我們所經歷的有很大不同。

We do believe that -- and we do see it both in China, as I said in my prepared comments, we do see it in parts of the United States where restrictions have been lifted earlier. I mentioned in my prepared comments, business travel volume's already 75% of what they were in '19 in those markets. So I think it is -- even though not fully through it, not fully open anywhere, I think it is really good evidence that as people get back to work, as kids in the fall go back to school, which at this point, I think, is very highly likely, you're going to see a step change into the third and fourth quarter in business transient.

我們確實相信這一點，正如我在準備好的評論中所說，我們確實在中國看到了這一點，我們也確實在美國部分地區看到了這一點，這些地區早些時候已經取消了限制。我在準備好的評論中提到，這些市場的商務旅行量已經是 19 年的 75%。所以我認為，儘管沒有完全通過，沒有在任何地方完全開放，但我認為這確實是很好的證據，表明隨著人們重返工作崗位，隨著秋季孩子們重返學校，在這一點上，我我認為，很有可能，您將在第三和第四季度看到業務瞬態的階躍變化。

I also see it in our booking pace on the group side that you will see a pretty good step change. In the group side, I gave you some stats, so I won't repeat them. At the moment, it is more SMERF kind of related business and small meetings in the second half of this year with the bigger meetings really some happening, but really those getting booked more into next year at a high volume. But we do believe that we will have a lot of realized group business, a lot more of it than we've been experiencing in the second half of the year.

我還從團體方面的預訂速度中看到，您會看到一個相當好的階躍變化。在小組方面，我給了你們一些統計數據，所以我不再重複。目前，今年下半年更多的是 SMERF 類型的相關業務和小型會議，大型會議確實會發生，但實際上這些會議在明年的預訂量將會很大。但我們確實相信，我們將擁有大量已實現的集團業務，比我們今年下半年經歷的要多得多。

So if you sort of jump to the fourth quarter, recognizing Q2 is going to be largely leisure, Q3 is going to sort of be a transition. On a room night basis, our forecasting which is all it is, but it's based on a lot of data and based on sort of the current trajectory that we're on, we think room nights in leisure will be at '19 levels. We don't think rate will be back to '19 levels. So sort of RevPAR levels in the leisure, sort of in the 80, low 80s sort of percent. We think business transient, by the time you get to the fourth quarter based on what we're seeing in markets that are recovering on a room night basis, we'll be about 70%-ish.

因此，如果你跳到第四季度，認識到第二季度將主要是休閒，第三季度將是一個過渡。以間夜為基礎，我們的預測僅此而已，但它基於大量數據，並且基於我們目前所處的軌跡，我們認為休閒間夜將處於 19 年的水平。我們認為利率不會回到 19 年的水準。休閒時的 RevPAR 水準大約在 80 左右，約為 80 左右的百分比。我們認為業務是短暫的，到第四季度時，根據我們所看到的按間夜數復甦的市場情況，我們的成長率將約為 70% 左右。

I'm being reasonably precise, obviously, but these are sort of our sense of estimates. And obviously, lower than that on a RevPAR basis because we're still not going to have the -- all the highest-rated business travel back. That's why it takes time to sort of get back to '19 levels. And we think group from a volume point of view could be -- could be halfway back to '19 levels. Again, it won't be the highest-rated groups. Those will start coming next year when we get to a place where we have the larger groups, association, et cetera, that are typically are paying. So that's sort of -- that's how we think the year is going to play out.

顯然，我的估計相當精確，但這些只是我們的估計。顯然，低於每間可用收入 (RevPAR) 的水平，因為我們仍然無法恢復所有評分最高的商務旅行。這就是為什麼需要時間才能回到19年的水平。我們認為，從成交量的角度來看，該集團可能會回到 19 年的水平。再說一次，它不會是收視率最高的團體。這些將在明年開始，屆時我們將擁有更大的團體、協會等，這些團體、協會等通常會付費。所以這就是我們認為今年會如何發展的情況。

We think that as a result, RevPAR levels every sort of month as we go versus '19 are going to get better. By the time we end the year, I think we could be back somewhere around 70% or something-ish of '19 levels on a run rate basis, which isn't all the way home. But it's a heck of a lot better than where we were. And what I would say, not to be Pollyannaish about it, what I would say is the recovery of late, certainly, since we had our last call, the recovery -- the slope of the recovery has been steeper than what we would have thought. In all regards, now a lot of it is to come on the business transient, although we're seeing some.

我們認為，與 19 年相比，每個月的 RevPAR 水準都會變得更好。到今年年底，我認為我們的運行率可能會回到 70% 左右，或大約是 19 年的水平，但這並不是完全正常。但它比我們原來的地方好多了。我想說的是，不是盲目樂觀，我想說的是最近的復甦，當然，自從我們上次打電話以來，復甦——復甦的斜率比我們想像的要陡峭。總而言之，儘管我們看到了一些，但現在很多都是短暫的。

As I described, it's not like we have none, and we're seeing a pretty decent uptick. But that is sort of a fall expectation. But I would say broadly, as you can probably tell from my comments, there's a bunch of data to support it. We think the slope of the recovery has steepened since the last time we talked and thus, our reason for optimism that things are on a good path.

正如我所描述的，我們並不是沒有，而且我們看到了相當不錯的成長。但這是一種秋季預期。但我想說的是，正如你可能從我的評論中看出的那樣，有大量數據支持它。我們認為，自上次談話以來，復甦的斜率已經加大，因此，我們有理由樂觀地認為事情正朝著良好的方向發展。

You asked about fee generation that will follow. I don't think there's a whole lot more to say that as the business recovers, so do our fees. We get -- that's how we get paid. And I do think sort of built into my expectations that I gave is sort of my view and our view of pent-up demand. I think there's a huge amount of pent-up demand. And my guess is every single person that you guys talk to, whether they run a business, whether you talk to them, they're a friend of yours, you see him on the beach or wherever you are, that they're talking about needing to and wanting to get out both for leisure, but increasingly needing to and wanting to get out for business and the congregating groups.

您詢問了接下來的費用產生問題。我認為隨著業務的復甦，我們的費用也會隨之增加，這沒什麼好說的。我們得到——這就是我們得到報酬的方式。我確實認為我所給予的期望中包含了我的觀點以及我們對被壓抑需求的看法。我認為有大量被壓抑的需求。我的猜測是，你們交談過的每一個人，無論他們經營一家企業，無論你與他們交談，他們是你的朋友，你在海灘上或無論你在哪裡看到他，他們都在談論需要並且想要出去休閒，但越來越需要並且想要出去做生意和聚會。

There are a lot of important work that gets done in these -- in these group settings that I think, after a while, people realized that it's not possible to keep going without it. So I do think there's a -- I think we're on a real -- on a very good slope. We need the vaccination trends and the infection rates and all of the fun stuff that we're all looking at every minute of every day because that's all the media is covering obviously. We need all that to progress. But our view is we're on a solid -- a very solid road to recovery. Did I get most of what you want?

在這些團體環境中完成了很多重要的工作，我認為，過了一段時間，人們意識到沒有它就不可能繼續下去。所以我確實認為——我認為我們確實處於一個非常好的斜坡上。我們需要疫苗接種趨勢、感染率以及我們每天每分鐘都在關注的所有有趣的東西，因為這顯然是媒體報導的所有內容。我們需要這一切才能取得進展。但我們的觀點是，我們正走在一條非常堅實的復甦之路。我得到了你想要的大部分東西嗎？

Yes, you did.

是的，你做到了。

I left a few nuggets for somebody else to ask about.

我留下了一些金塊供其他人詢問。

And the next question will be from Joe Greff with JPMorgan.

下一個問題將由摩根大通的喬·格雷夫提出。

I think most of my demand-related, recovery-related questions were sufficiently answered before. So I'd just like to talk about the development pipeline. Nice to see that up sequentially on a quarter-over-quarter basis. What we've been seeing for a while now is that the non-U.S. component is becoming a bigger percentage of the pipeline. How much of the non-U.S. is limited service? And how did that composition -- how did that compare to maybe a year ago? And maybe where I'm going with this question is when you look at the average fee per room in your development pipeline now versus a year ago, is that average fee per room up or down?

我認為我的大部分與需求相關、與復甦相關的問題以前都得到了充分的回答。所以我想談談開發流程。很高興看到這一數字環比連續上升。一段時間以來，我們看到非美國成分在管道中所佔的比例正在增加。有多少非美國航班的服務受到限制？與一年前相比，這個成分怎麼樣？也許我要問的問題是，當您查看現在開發管道中每個房間的平均費用與一年前相比時，每個房間的平均費用是上升還是下降？

Yes. That's a good question. I think those trends are not changing dramatically in the short term, right? They sort of stay -- we've got a pretty good development pipeline, both in full service and limited service. You have seen growth, I mean, primarily through our master and limited partnerships in China with Hampton and Home2. But also as we deploy Hilton Garden and other brands around the world, you are seeing slightly faster growth in limited service. So for it to change the overall trajectory of fees per room, it will take a really long time. And so that has been pretty steady as has the mix between full service and limited service generally speaking, in both the pipeline and rooms under construction. I think it's about 60-40, full service, limited service. And that stayed pretty constant. Oh, the other way. Sorry, 40-60.

是的。這是個好問題。我認為這些趨勢在短期內不會發生巨大變化，對嗎？他們有點留下來——我們有一個相當好的開發管道，包括全面服務和有限服務。我的意思是，您已經看到了成長，主要是透過我們在中國與漢普頓和 Home2 的主要和有限合作夥伴關係。但隨著我們在世界各地部署希爾頓花園和其他品牌，您會發現有限服務的成長速度略有加快。因此，要改變每間客房費用的整體軌跡，需要很長時間。因此，總體而言，在管道和在建房間中，全面服務和有限服務的混合相當穩定。我覺得大概是60-40左右，全套服務，有限服務。而且這種情況一直保持不變。哦，另一種方式。抱歉，40-60。

The next question is from Shaun Kelley with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Shaun Kelley。

Chris or Kevin, maybe to stick with the same development topic, inflation has become a big theme around all of the markets recently. And I just want to get your thoughts on specifically what this could mean for the hotel development side. Are you seeing or hearing about any changes or delays that could be out there as a result of things like materials inflation? Is this a particular concern to you at all in how you're underwriting or what you're starting to hear back from your development teams?

克里斯或凱文，也許是為了堅持同一個發展主題，通貨膨脹最近已成為所有市場的一個大主題。我只是想了解一下您對這對酒店開發方面意味著什麼的具體想法。您是否看到或聽說過由於材料膨脹等原因可能導致的任何變化或延遲？對於您的核保方式或您開始從開發團隊收到的回饋，這是否是您特別關心的問題？

Yes. I mean, of course, it's a concern. I mean we have in -- sort of inflation going on, not just in the input cost but labor as well. So when they ultimately -- when people need to operate -- open and operate, the cost are higher. Now we've done a bunch of things and are doing a bunch of things to bring cost down inside the hotels by creating really good efficiencies that I think will more than offset that component of it. But cost to build are going up and financing is not particularly readily available. For the best owners, it is and people are starting new build projects in the U.S. and around the world.

是的。我的意思是，當然，這是一個問題。我的意思是，我們正在經歷某種程度的通貨膨脹，不僅是投入成本，還有勞動力。因此，當它們最終——當人們需要運作時——開放並運作時，成本會更高。現在我們已經做了很多事情，並且正在做很多事情，透過創造非常好的效率來降低飯店內部的成本，我認為這將遠遠抵消其中的部分。但建設成本不斷上升，融資也不是特別容易取得。對於最好的業主來說，確實如此，人們正在美國和世界各地開始新的建設項目。

But I suspect and sort of built in, Shaun, to our expectations on unit growth is that the U.S., you will see a cycle where, particularly in the U.S., the new construction numbers are going to be much, much lower. That's obviously long-term healthy for the industry. But the good news for us is the world is a big place. And the pressures are not the same in all places in the world, particularly recognizing that the place where we get the second biggest chunk of our growth is Asia Pacific and China in particular. And those pressures are very different in the sense that they're less and there's a lot more financing available, et cetera, et cetera.

但我懷疑，肖恩，我們對美國單位成長的預期是，你會看到一個週期，特別是在美國，新建築數量將大大降低。這對該行業來說顯然是長期健康的。但對我們來說好消息是世界很大。世界各地面臨的壓力並不相同，特別是要認識到我們成長第二大的地區是亞太地區，尤其是中國。這些壓力是非常不同的，因為它們更小，而且可用的融資更多，等等。

And so not unlike coming out of the Great Recession, our job is to be really resilient. This is the benefit of an investment in a big global company. I think we're really good at this and sort of anticipating and adapting to the trends. And like after the Great Recession, the same thing happened in the U.S. It wasn't so much an inflationary issue. It was just a dearth of capital. And new construction starts went way down. That's what's happening here. That will be healthy for the industry.

因此，就像走出大衰退一樣，我們的工作就是保持真正的韌性。這就是投資大型跨國公司的好處。我認為我們非常擅長這一點，並且能夠預測和適應趨勢。就像大衰退之後一樣，美國也發生了同樣的事情。只是缺乏資本。新開工建設大幅下降。這就是這裡發生的事情。這對行業來說將是健康的。

And what did we do? We pivoted then the same way we're pivoting now, just with more tools in the toolkit, meaning conversions become a much larger part of what we're doing. And we have -- we are much further along in terms of the relationships we have around the world in the areas of the world that are continuing to not only motor along but pick up steam. I mean I think in China, as an example, our second biggest market, we're going to sign more, start more and open more deals than I think we ever have this year, right? And so diversification is a powerful thing. Ultimately, I do believe the pressures on the cost to build will abate over a period of time, and I don't think it will be that long a period of time.

我們做了什麼？我們當時的轉變方式與現在的轉變方式相同，只是工具包中使用了更多工具，這意味著轉換成為我們正在做的事情的重要組成部分。我們在世界各地的關係方面取得了更大的進步，這些關係不僅繼續向前發展，而且正在加速發展。我的意思是，我認為以中國為例，我們的第二大市場，我們今年將簽署更多、啟動更多並開啟更多交易，對吧？因此，多元化是一件很強大的事。最終，我確實相信建造成本的壓力會在一段時間內減輕，而且我認為這不會是那麼長的一段時間。

I'm highly confident that the financing markets will have been easing up and will continue to ease up. And the U.S., in terms of new development or new construction starts, will be a huge engine of opportunity for us as it always has been and then pick up a lot of steam. And I'm sure other things around the world will happen over time where they slow down. But we're very quick on our feet, not to pat us on the back too much, but I think we've been able for 15 years to continue to drive really good growth while lots of crazy things are going on around the world because there are different conditions and there's ways to continue to grow.

我非常有信心融資市場將會放鬆並將繼續放鬆。而美國，無論是新的開發還是新的建設項目的啟動，都將一如既往地為我們帶來巨大的機遇，並帶來巨大的動力。我確信隨著時間的推移，世界各地的其他事情也會發生，但速度會放緩。但我們的步伐非常快，不要過度拍拍我們的背，但我認為我們已經能夠在 15 年來繼續推動真正良好的增長，而世界各地正在發生許多瘋狂的事情，因為有不同的條件，也有繼續成長的方法。

And so while we do starting -- finishing with where we started, we do worry about it. I think we have a plan to address it. I think we've built that into the expectations that we've provided to you guys in terms of where we think growth will be.

因此，當我們從開始的地方開始——結束時，我們確實會擔心它。我認為我們有一個計劃來解決這個問題。我認為我們已經將這一點納入了我們向你們提供的關於我們認為成長的預期中。

Next question will be from Stephen Grambling from Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題將由高盛的史蒂芬·格蘭布林（Stephen Grambling）提出。

On capital allocation, what are the key factors you're considering in bringing back a dividend or buyback and thinking through just capital allocation priorities more broadly?

在資本配置方面，您在收回股利或回購以及更廣泛地考慮資本配置優先事項時考慮的關鍵因素是什麼？

Yes. I think, look, the second part maybe is a little more straightforward. Our overall view on capital allocation hasn't changed. Obviously, we've suspended dividend and buyback to preserve liquidity during the pandemic. But the way we think about it broadly hasn't changed. And I think the way we think about it, more specifically on the first part of your question, is we want to get a little further into the recovery, a little bit further into reliably generating free cash -- positive free cash flow and having our leverage level start to come down. And so that -- unless something crazy happens, we think that happens over the course of the year. We'll talk to our Board about it sort of in the second half of the year as the recovery takes shape. And we'd say it's highly likely that starting next year, we get back into the capital return business.

是的。我想，看，第二部分可能比較簡單一些。我們對資本配置的整體看法沒有改變。顯然，我們已暫停派息和回購，以在大流行期間保持流動性。但我們對它的廣泛思考方式並沒有改變。我認為我們思考這個問題的方式，更具體地說是你問題的第一部分，是我們希望進一步推動復甦，進一步可靠地產生自由現金——正的自由現金流，並擁有我們的資產。下降。因此，除非發生瘋狂的事情，否則我們認為這種情況會在這一年中發生。隨著經濟復甦的形成，我們將在今年下半年與董事會討論此事。我們想說，從明年開始，我們很有可能會重新進入資本回報業務。

And the next question is from Thomas Allen from Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的湯瑪斯艾倫。

Here in your earlier comments, the slope of recovery has been better than expected. Chris, what's your latest thinking on when RevPAR gets back to 2019 levels?

在您之前的評論中，復甦的斜率比預期要好。 Chris，當 RevPAR 回到 2019 年的水平時，您的最新想法是什麼？

Yes. That's a great question. Actually, Thomas, thanks for asking it. It's one that we were debating over the last few days ourselves. And there are varying opinions on it even inside our own shop. I mean I've been saying '23 or '24, as you know, on these calls publicly. And I still believe that. I think from a -- I think with the slope of the recovery, I'd probably be on the earlier end of that rather than the later as we have a little bit more visibility. I think there is a chance from a room night point of view, certainly on a run rate basis, that we get back next year. But I think to get both room nights and rate and the compression we need requires, certainly in the U.S., it broadly requires the bigger groups to be back. And while I think they're coming back and certainly, they want to be back, the planning and all of that -- it's on a lag. So I think that takes some time next year. So I'd still say '23, '24 but I'd probably err towards the earlier end of that.

是的。這是一個很好的問題。事實上，托馬斯，謝謝你的提問。這是我們過去幾天自己一直在爭論的問題。即使在我們自己的店裡也有不同的意見。我的意思是，正如你所知，我在這些公開電話會議上一直在說「23」或「24」。我仍然相信這一點。我認為，隨著復甦的斜率，我可能會處於較早的階段，而不是較晚的階段，因為我們有更多的能見度。我認為從間夜角度來看，當然是在運行率的基礎上，我們明年有機會回歸。但我認為，要獲得我們所需的間夜數、房價和壓縮率，當然在美國，這基本上需要更大的群體回來。雖然我認為他們會回來，當然，他們也想回來，但計劃和所有這一切——都滯後了。所以我認為明年需要一些時間。所以我仍然會說“23”、“24”，但我可能會錯在更早的結束時間。

The next question will be from Smedes Rose with Citi.

下一個問題將由花旗銀行的 Smedes Rose 提出。

I kind of -- along the same lines, you see this acceleration in RevPAR. In your conversations, is there any on the corporate side for groups, less on the association side? Do you sense any hesitancy on the part of corporates to move back in terms of having enjoyed a year of essentially no travel budgets? Any kind of push back on the -- that you think in terms of the amount of people they put on the road or the amount of people they put into groups? Or is that not really an issue? I was just sort of pegging off this idea of impairment when someone [is there]...

我有點——沿著同樣的思路，你會看到 RevPAR 的加速成長。在你們的談話中，是否有企業方面的團體，而不是協會方面的？在經歷了幾乎沒有差旅預算的一年後，您是否感覺到企業對於遷回有任何猶豫？任何形式的阻力－你認為他們把多少人放在路上或他們把多少人分成小組？或者這根本不是一個問題？當有人[在那裡]時，我只是想擺脫這種損害的想法...

It's another reason I think it takes time to get back to '19 levels, sort of my picking up from my earlier answer, is because I do think not only have people cut budgets, not everybody was Amazon or whatever that has really benefited during this time. A lot of them, most businesses, by number, have been really negatively impacted by the pandemic, and they need to cut expenses. And so I'm highly confident, as is the case with any cyclical downturn in recovery when this happens, that those budgets will build back, but it will take will take some time.

這是我認為需要時間才能回到19 水平的另一個原因，這有點像我從之前的回答中得到的，是因為我確實認為不僅人們削減了預算，而且並不是每個人都是亞馬遜或任何在這段期間真正受益的公司時間。從數量上看，他們中的許多人、大多數企業確實受到了這場流行病的負面影響，他們需要削減開支。因此，我非常有信心，就像這種情況發生時復甦的週期性衰退一樣，這些預算將會恢復，但這需要一些時間。

Now I think in the second half of this year, I think, number one, there's a huge amount of pent-up demand. And by definition, they only have half a year to spend whatever they have anyway because nobody is doing a ton of traveling in the first half of the year. So I think ironically, I think there's plenty of budget capacity. I look at our own budget. There's plenty of budget capacity when you talk to businesses for the rest of this year. I think as you go into next year, if we're in a full-scale recovery while people are going to, for a period of time, want to be thrifty, I think in the end, it will just be what the opportunity set is.

現在我認為今年下半年，第一，存在著大量被壓抑的需求。根據定義，他們只有半年的時間來花掉他們擁有的一切，因為沒有人在上半年進行大量旅行。所以我認為諷刺的是，我認為有足夠的預算能力。我看看我們自己的預算。當你與企業討論今年剩餘時間時，你會發現有充足的預算能力。我認為，進入明年，如果我們處於全面復甦階段，而人們在一段時間內想要節儉，我認為最終，這將是機會所設定的是。

And if it were in a robust recovery, what I have seen -- again, I can't prove it, but I've seen it in every other cycle as you get into that, the rope gets -- they let -- businesses let the rope through their hands because they have to. They have to deliver alpha. They have to compete against other businesses in -- that are trying to do the same thing. And so they have to -- their people have to get out on the road. They have to have meetings.

如果是在強勁的復甦中，我所看到的——再說一遍，我無法證明這一點，但我在其他每個週期中都看到了這一點，當你進入這個階段時，繩索就會——他們讓——企業讓繩子穿過他們的手，因為他們必須這樣做。他們必須提供阿爾法。他們必須與其他試圖做同樣事情的企業競爭。所以他們必須──他們的人民必須上路。他們必須開會。

They have to build their culture, innovate, collaborate, get out and get their sales forces out and do all the things they do. So the steeper the slope of the recovery, the fact -- like in every other cyclical recovery, and that's when we get through the pandemic, we're done largely with the help and you're in a cyclical economic recovery. The steeper the slope, the faster it comes back. That's just the way it's always worked. I don't think it'll be any different here.

他們必須建立自己的文化，創新，合作，走出去，讓銷售人員出去，做他們所做的一切。因此，復甦的斜率越大，事實是——就像所有其他週期性復甦一樣，當我們度過大流行時，我們在很大程度上已經完成了幫助，並且處於週期性經濟復甦之中。坡度越陡，返回的速度越快。這就是它一直以來的運作方式。我認為這裡不會有什麼不同。

But it will -- that's why I said '23, '24. Again, I said probably, I'd take the earlier of that rather than the later given the current slope of what we're seeing. But that's why it takes longer. We will get back to room nights, I think, faster because we'll still find room nights that are lower-rated business because we've gotten really good at that. But we're going to want to shift the mix out over the next couple of years to the higher-rated business, get more compression from groups to ultimately get back there. So I think budgets will normalize sort of between now and 2023 if the slope of the recovery is what we think -- is what we're seeing.

但它會的——這就是為什麼我說「23」、「24」。我再次說過，考慮到我們目前所看到的情況，我會選擇較早的而不是較晚的。但這就是為什麼需要更長的時間。我想，我們會更快地回到客房住宿，因為我們仍然會找到評價較低的客房住宿，因為我們在這方面已經非常擅長了。但我們希望在未來幾年內將組合轉移到評級較高的業務上，從團體中獲得更多的壓縮，最終回到那裡。因此，我認為，如果復甦的斜率如我們所想——也就是我們所看到的那樣，那麼從現在到 2023 年，預算將會趨於正常化。

The next question comes from David Katz with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自傑弗里斯的大衛·卡茨。

Covered a lot of territory already. But I wanted to just talk about the development in general. And we have not talked much about the degree to which the interactions with owners have maybe changed either temporarily or permanently. We've been so focused on the demand recovery, which obviously is worthy of consuming our attention. But is there any semi-permanent or permanent change in the manner in which you deal with the development community and sort of how those monies and risks are managed long term?

已經覆蓋了很多領土。但我只想談談整體發展。我們還沒有過多討論與業主的互動可能暫時或永久改變的程度。我們一直如此關注需求的復甦，這顯然值得我們關注。但是，您與開發社區打交道的方式以及如何長期管理這些資金和風險是否會發生任何半永久性或永久性的變化？

It's a complicated answer. I think when you boil it down, I don't think there is going to be any material shift. I do believe in the -- obviously, short to intermediate term, there's a shift because like everybody, not all of our owners, but most of our owners are dealing with a very difficult situation. I would say the 99.9%. Now some of them are much further along in the recovery because their portfolios are in markets that have had rapid recovery, resort markets, Southern U.S. and they're doing pretty well. But broadly, the owner community obviously has been hurting as have we as have the whole industry. There's not -- it's not like it's been easy on any of us.

這是一個複雜的答案。我認為當你把它歸結起來時，我認為不會有任何實質的轉變。我確實相信——顯然，從短期到中期來看，會發生轉變，因為像每個人一樣，不是我們所有的所有者，但我們的大多數所有者都在應對非常困難的情況。我想說的是99.9%。現在，他們中的一些人在復甦方面走得更遠，因為他們的投資組合位於快速復甦的市場、度假村市場、美國南部，而且他們的表現相當不錯。但總的來說，業主社群顯然受到了傷害，我們整個產業也受到了傷害。事實並非如此——這對我們任何人來說都不容易。

We obviously have deployed a whole host of things to be supportive of the owner community, and those are still fully deployed in the sense of working very hard with a lot of folks on behalf of the industry for government support in the right areas. And we don't -- we have not stopped those efforts, and I do believe as we get to a real recovery, there's opportunities to help -- get helped with real stimulus to get people moving again. And so we continue to work day and night on those efforts as things evolve.

顯然，我們已經部署了一系列措施來支持業主社區，而且這些措施仍然得到充分部署，即與代表行業的許多人一起努力工作，爭取政府在正確領域的支持。我們沒有——我們沒有停止這些努力，我確實相信，當我們實現真正的復甦時，就有機會提供幫助——透過真正的刺激來讓人們再次採取行動。因此，隨著事態的發展，我們將繼續日以繼夜地努力。

And obviously, we've done a whole bunch of work in the short term to provide massive amounts of relief from standards across the board so that owners could make -- manage their way. We could all manage our way to the other side. I mentioned it in passing but it's worth mentioning again. We call it our hotel, the future work. We're looking in a very granular way across every one of our brands. We're not done with the work, but we're done with a lot of the work to figure out when we get to the other side, how do we deliver the incredible experience for the customer that continues to drive the premiums that we've had, by the way, which are at the highest levels in our history at this moment but also do it in a way that's more cost efficient for our ownership community.

顯然，我們在短期內做了很多工作，全面放寬標準，以便業主能夠以自己的方式進行管理。我們都可以設法到達另一邊。我順便提到過，但值得再次提及。我們稱之為我們的酒店，未來的工作。我們正在以非常細緻的方式審視我們的每一個品牌。我們的工作還沒有完成，但我們已經完成了很多工作，以弄清楚當我們到達另一邊時，我們如何為客戶提供令人難以置信的體驗，從而繼續推動我們的溢價順便說一句，我們目前處於我們歷史上的最高水平，但也以對我們的所有權社區更具成本效益的方式做到這一點。

I'm highly confident, as I said, even with the labor pressures that we are going to experience here in the U.S. particularly, that when it's all said and done, we're going to be able to drive higher margins. So on a like-for-like basis, if you believe, which I do that when you get out a couple of years, you're going to have similar demand levels to '18 or '19. Even with the cost pressures, we believe that we have engineered a way to be able to drive even greater returns.

正如我所說，我非常有信心，即使我們將面臨勞動力壓力，尤其是在美國，當一切塵埃落定後，我們將能夠提高利潤率。因此，在同等基礎上，如果你相信，當你離開幾年後，我會這樣做，你將擁有與 18 或 19 年類似的需求水準。即使面臨成本壓力，我們相信我們已經設計出一種能夠帶來更大回報的方法。

So our owners, while it's difficult now, when we get to the other side, both their existing assets and their opportunity set for doing new development, we think, are going to be better than what we had pre-pandemic because we think we're just doing a better -- we're going to do -- we are and we'll continue to do a better job.

因此，我們的業主，雖然現在很困難，但當我們到達另一邊時，我們認為他們現有的資產和進行新開發的機會都將比大流行前更好，因為我們認為我們只是做得更好——我們將會做得更好——我們現在並將繼續做得更好。

And so that's a long-winded way of getting to the answer, which I gave you at the beginning. So as a result of that, I don't think there'll be a meaningful difference. I mean with some owners, there may be. But I would say in the main, I don't think so. I think the owner community that we deal with, which is an immensely diversified community, we have 10,000 owners around the world that we deal with. The vast majority of them, this is their business. This is what they do, own and operate on a franchise basis, and it's all they do. It's not the case across all 10,000 owners, but the bulk of our system, this is what people do.

因此，這是獲得答案的冗長方法，我在一開始就給了你這個答案。因此，我認為不會有任何有意義的差異。我的意思是對於一些業主來說，可能會有。但我主要想說的是，我不這麼認為。我認為我們所處理的業主社區是一個極其多元化的社區，我們在世界各地有 10,000 名業主。對他們中的絕大多數人來說，這是他們的事。這就是他們所做的，在特許經營的基礎上擁有和經營，這就是他們所做的一切。並不是所有 10,000 個所有者都是這種情況，但我們系統的大部分人都是這樣做的。

And I don't think if we can deliver for them the premiums we've delivered, which have only gone up and do it in a way where they can get more to the bottom line, that they're going to abandon their business model. I think they're going to want to carry on. But it takes some time, right, just being pragmatic because this has been really difficult and which is why we worked so hard to sort of help create the bridges, both in what we could do, what the government could do to get them to the other side. And why I said in my -- honestly, in my earlier comments, particularly in the U.S., where why I think the new development side, all of these pressures, and just the pressures of owners broadly is going to mean it's going to take a little time for the new construction side of development to pick up the -- what it was pre-pandemic.

我不認為如果我們能夠為他們提供我們已經提供的溢價（溢價只會上升）並且以一種可以讓他們獲得更多底線的方式做到這一點，他們不會放棄他們的商業模式。我認為他們會想繼續下去。但這需要一些時間，對吧，只是務實，因為這真的很困難，這就是為什麼我們如此努力地幫助建立橋樑，無論是我們可以做什麼，政府可以做什麼，讓他們到達對方。為什麼我在我的——老實說，在我之前的評論中說，特別是在美國，為什麼我認為新的開發方面，所有這些壓力，以及業主廣泛的壓力將意味著這將需要一個新的開發建設方面幾乎沒有時間恢復疫情前的狀態。

But that will happen in my opinion. And I think the relationship will be much more similar than different to what it was and as I said before. In the meantime, it's a big world. And we've pivoted, and we're doing some really cool things around the world to make sure that we continue to enhance our network effect and deliver more hotels and more fees.

但我認為這將會發生。我認為，正如我之前所說，這種關係將更加相似，而不是不同。同時，這是一個很大的世界。我們已經轉向，我們正在世界各地做一些非常酷的事情，以確保我們繼續增強我們的網路效應並提供更多的酒店和更多的費用。

The next question is from Richard Clarke with Bernstein.

下一個問題是理查德·克拉克和伯恩斯坦提出的。

Just a quick question on the owned and leased portfolio. Obviously, that seems to have driven the most volatility in the quarter. Where do your ambitions with that particular division stand? Are you looking to transition that more rapidly towards asset-light now? And where do you think the cost savings in that segment can land in the longer term?

只是一個關於自有和租賃投資組合的簡單問題。顯然，這似乎導致了本季最大的波動。您對這個特定部門的抱負是什麼？現在您是否希望更快地向輕資產轉型？您認為從長遠來看，該領域的成本節約可以反映在哪些方面？

Well, the cost savings -- look, it's everything across the board just like any hotel owner would be doing in times like this. We're looking for cost savings in sort of literally every aspect of the operations. I think our ambitions in that portfolio, we are pretty capital-light, right? So even in normal times, that ownership was down to 7% to 8% of our overall EBITDA, something like that in 2019. And we've been saying for a long time that if we think about our portfolio, it's about 60 hotels, primarily leases, about 20 of them were strategic. We'll be in those leases no matter what.

好吧，節省成本——看，這一切都是全面的，就像任何酒店業主在這樣的時期都會做的那樣。我們正在尋求在營運的各個方面節省成本。我認為我們在該投資組合中的野心是相當輕的資本，對嗎？因此，即使在正常情況下，所有權也下降至我們整體EBITDA 的7% 至8%，與2019 年類似。飯店，主要是租賃，其中約 20 項是策略性的。無論如何，我們都會參加這些租約。

Over time, they have good coverage. They're important hotels. We've got 20 at the bottom where there's sort of legacy -- they are legacy deals that we inherited, fixed lease payments in markets that aren't as robust. Those, we will exit no matter what, when the leases are up. And then there's about 20 that are in the middle where when the leases roll, we sit down with the landlord. And if we can work out an arrangement that we think makes sense for us to continue, we continue. If we don't, we get out.

隨著時間的推移，它們具有良好的覆蓋範圍。它們是重要的酒店。我們在底部有 20 個項目，其中有一些遺留問題 - 它們是我們繼承的遺留交易，在不那麼強勁的市場中固定租賃付款。無論如何，當租約到期時，我們都會退出。然後大約有 20 個處於中間狀態，當租約到期時，我們會與房東坐下來。如果我們能夠制定一個我們認為對我們繼續有意義的安排，我們就會繼續。如果我們不這樣做，我們就出去。

And we've sort of been rolling our way out of 3 to 4 of them a year. We think it's actually probably more like 6 to 8 of them this year that we'll transition out of, either transitioning them to management agreements or franchise agreements or just getting out. And over time, you'll wake up a few years from now, and it will be something like less than 5% of our overall EBITDA, and that will remain the trajectory.

我們每年都會推出 3 到 4 個這樣的專案。我們認為今年我們實際上可能會擺脫其中的 6 到 8 個，要么將它們轉變為管理協議或特許經營協議，要么乾脆退出。隨著時間的推移，幾年後你會發現，它大約占我們整體 EBITDA 的不到 5%，而且這仍將是這個軌跡。

Having said that, in the next -- starting in the second half of the year and into the next couple of years, this will accelerate our overall growth just because sadly, the ownership segment, given a lot of the fixed rent nature of it and where it's been, which has been concentrated in U.K., Europe and Japan, which have been impacted -- dramatically more impacted. If you look at the RevPAR numbers in those markets and in the segment are twice as bad in the first quarter as the overall. As you get those markets open, you're going to take those numbers, which have been terrible, will become a significant contributor to growth.

話雖如此，在接下來的時間裡——從今年下半年開始到接下來的幾年，這將加速我們的整體增長，因為可悲的是，考慮到所有權部分的固定租金性質，集中在英國、歐洲和日本，這些國家都受到了影響，而且影響更大。如果你看看這些市場和細分市場的 RevPAR 數字，第一季的情況是整體的兩倍。當你開放這些市場時，你將會看到那些本來很糟糕的數字將成為成長的重要貢獻者。

Yes, and we think that happens over the course of the second half of the year.

是的，我們認為這會在今年下半年發生。

And the next question will come from Robin Farley with UBS.

下一個問題將由瑞銀集團的羅賓法利提出。

Great. I had a question going back to the unit growth topic. One is, I wonder if you have thoughts about '22 unit growth, the rate -- you mentioned U.S. new construction, obviously, would be lower, kind of how that would compare to this year's 4.5% to 5%. And then also on that topic, the conversions in this quarter, I think, were 20-some percent of openings. Do you see that moving higher? In other words, are you in the early stages of a bunch of conversions that maybe will come out later this year? I know you've talked in the past about how kind of pressures in the business can lead to a greater rate of conversion. So wondering if that's teeing up for later this year? And then could that offset the lower new construction growth next year?

偉大的。我有一個問題回到單位成長主題。一是，我想知道您是否對「22 單位成長」有什麼看法，您提到的美國新建築的成長率顯然會更低，與今年 4.5% 至 5% 的成長率相比。然後，同樣就這個主題而言，我認為本季的轉換率佔空缺職位的 20% 左右。你看到它在走高嗎？換句話說，您是否正處於一系列可能會在今年稍後推出的轉換的早期階段？我知道您過去曾談論過業務壓力如何能帶來更高的轉換率。那麼想知道這是否會在今年晚些時候進行？那麼這是否可以抵消明年新建築成長的下降？

Yes, sure, Robin. Good question. I think, look, the first -- in the first part, we've -- I think we've said several times publicly that we think over the next several years, it will be between 4% and 5%. And sort of the range there is meant to capture sort of all of the things we've been talking about, right, the timing of openings, the timing of conversions, the timing of removals, the trajectory that we're seeing in new construction. So we still think 4% to 5%, and it will be within that range for the next few years.

是的，當然，羅賓。好問題。我想，看，第一部分——在第一部分，我們——我想我們已經多次公開表示，我們認為未來幾年，這一比例將在 4% 到 5% 之間。範圍是為了捕捉我們一直在談論的所有事情，對吧，開放的時間、轉換的時間、拆除的時間、我們在新建築中看到的軌跡。所以我們仍然認為是4%到5%，並且未來幾年都會在這個範圍內。

And then the second half on conversions, yes, we do think conversions will pick up over time. In the last cycle, it got to something in the 40% range of overall deliveries, probably doesn't get -- and we think we've said this publicly as well. It probably doesn't get back to that level this cycle just because the denominator likely won't contract that dramatically. But we do think conversions will continue to be a bigger contributor. It will be a little bit lumpy. A lot of them are larger hotels. Some of the things we're working on now are bigger deals, either portfolio deals or larger individual hotels that sort of require a transaction to happen for the conversion to happen. So I don't know if that happens later this year or next year, but it definitely will pick up over time.

然後是關於轉換率的下半年，是的，我們確實認為轉換率會隨著時間的推移而增加。在上一個週期中，它達到了整體交付量 40% 的範圍，但可能達不到——我們認為我們也已經公開說過這一點。本週期可能不會回到這個水平，只因為分母可能不會大幅收縮。但我們確實認為轉化將繼續成為更大的貢獻者。它會有點凹凸不平。其中很多都是較大的酒店。我們現在正在做的一些事情是更大的交易，無論是投資組合交易還是更大的個體酒店，都需要進行交易才能實現轉換。所以我不知道這種情況是否會在今年晚些時候或明年發生，但隨著時間的推移，這種情況肯定會有所改善。

The next question is from Bill Crow from Raymond James.

下一個問題來自雷蒙德·詹姆斯的比爾·克勞。

Looking globally, how important is outbound Chinese travel to the recovery in Europe? And are there any comments you can make on the trends about on Chinese travel today?

放眼全球，中國出境旅遊對歐洲復甦有多重要？您對當今中國旅遊的趨勢有何評論？

Yes. I mean we've been having a lot of discussion within the industry and within China. In fact, I participated in a meeting with the Premier Li of China just a couple of weeks ago, and this is one of the topics that we talked about. If you look at our business, using some metrics in our business, like in the U.S., inbound, global -- international inbounds, only about 4% of the business. If you look at our business globally, it's about 10%. And it does weigh, obviously, more heavily inbound business in other parts of the world, particularly in Europe, which depends on it more. So it would be higher than 10%.

是的。我的意思是，我們在行業內和中國內部進行了很多討論。事實上，幾週前我參加了與中國李克強總理的會晤，這也是我們討論的話題之一。如果你看看我們的業務，使用我們業務中的一些指標，例如在美國、入境、全球——國際入境，只佔業務的 4% 左右。如果你看看我們在全球的業務，這個比例大約是 10%。顯然，它確實對世界其他地區的入境業務產生了更大的影響，特別是在歐洲，歐洲更依賴它。所以會高於10%。

A large feeder market is China. I mean, it's other parts of the world as well, but it is China. And so I think as Europe opens up, obviously, they're going to be like the rest of the world. I think they're going to be doing within region travel, which given all the pent-up demand, has actually, I think, been reasonably good. Just like we're seeing in the U.S., even though we don't have much inbound travel going on, we don't have any outbound going on. And so I think in the end, Europe's opportunity for the early stages of recovery are robust.

中國是一個巨大的支線市場。我的意思是，世界其他地方也是如此，但這是中國。因此，我認為隨著歐洲的開放，他們顯然會像世界其他地區一樣。我認為他們將進行區域內旅行，考慮到所有被壓抑的需求，我認為實際上相當不錯。就像我們在美國看到的那樣，儘管我們沒有太多入境旅行，但也沒有任何出境旅行。因此，我認為最終，歐洲復甦早期階段的機會是巨大的。

For the same reason, while they're not going to have inbound from China or other markets, they're not going to have any outbound. And Europeans like to travel, particularly in the summer like to go on vacations. And when it's open and they can, they will and they'll stay within the confines of either their countries or the region. So I think it's going to be fine.

基於同樣的原因，雖然他們不會從中國或其他市場入境，但也不會有任何出境。而且歐洲人喜歡旅遊，尤其是夏天喜歡去度假。當它開放並且他們可以的時候，他們將會並且他們將留在他們的國家或地區的範圍內。所以我想一切都會好起來的。

Obviously, longer term, as you get to a more stabilized world, you want to open up these travel quarters. We -- I had a meeting with the White House last week, maybe the week before, as I said, with Premier Li of China, the week before that. And we were talking about a lot of topics, but that was a primary topic, both with the Chinese administration and the U.S. administration on trying to figure out how do we figure out as the world is getting vaccinated, and it's a little uneven. But as certain countries are getting heavily vaccinated and getting to a reasonable level of herd immunity, how do we open up safe travel quarters.

顯然，從長遠來看，當你進入一個更穩定的世界時，你希望開放這些旅遊區。我們——我上週，也許是前一周，與中國總理李克強會面，也就是前一周。我們討論了很多話題，但這是一個主要話題，中國政府和美國政府都在試圖弄清楚我們如何在全世界都接種疫苗的情況下找到答案，而且這有點不平衡。但隨著某些國家正在大量接種疫苗並達到合理的群體免疫水平，我們如何開放安全的旅行區。

Europe is doing the same thing. Those discussions are ongoing. We're trying to get those discussions going with the U.S. They are obviously already starting to have those discussions with China. And so I don't -- that will take some time. I think it's -- I think you will start to see some bilateral agreements or multilateral agreements in the second half of this year. I think we're at a stage right now where everybody is still focused on vaccination to get their herd immunity. But with the overwhelming amount of supply of vaccines, which aren't all distributed perfectly around the world or even around our country at this point, but the numbers are becoming overwhelming. The surpluses are going to become, as we get into the summer, my sense is overwhelming. And we're going to be able to have a shifting of those resources around the world to the markets most in need as we get into July -- June, July, August, September and into the latter part of the year, that is going to allow for a reasonably -- hopefully, a reasonable trajectory in terms of some of these economies getting to a better place.

歐洲也在做同樣的事情。這些討論正在進行中。我們正在努力與美國進行這些討論。所以我不會——這需要一些時間。我認為今年下半年你們將開始看到一些雙邊協議或多邊協議。我認為我們現在正處於一個階段，每個人仍然專注於接種疫苗以獲得群體免疫。但由於疫苗供應量龐大，目前疫苗還沒有完美分佈在世界各地，甚至我國各地，但數量正變得勢不可擋。當我們進入夏季時，盈餘將會變得巨大，我的感覺是壓倒性的。當我們進入 7 月、6 月、7 月、8 月、9 月以及今年下半年時，我們將能夠將世界各地的這些資源轉移到最需要的市場。希望能夠走上更好的道路。

China is obviously already in a reasonably good place. So as the U.S. sort of has a few more months than Europe, I think there are real opportunities to start opening travel quarters. I do think it will happen that way just based on the discussions I'm having with multiple administrations and that our teams are having. I don't think it's going to be like one day, the world is open. Like, yay, everybody -- I think it's going to be agreements between like the U.S. and the U.K., the EU and China, the U.S. and China, that will allow for those quarters to open up, make sure that there's flight capacity, that the regime for vaccination, testing and all that is sort of -- is bolted down.

中國顯然已經處於一個相當好的位置。因此，由於美國比歐洲有更多幾個月的時間，我認為確實有機會開始開放旅遊季。我確實認為，根據我與多個政府部門以及我們的團隊正在進行的討論，事情將會以這種方式發生。我不認為有一天世界會開放。就像，是的，大家——我認為美國和英國、歐盟和中國、美國和中國之間將會達成協議，這將允許這些地區開放，確保有航班容量，疫苗接種、檢測等系統都已被固定下來。

So that's a long answer because it needs to be. It's complicated. I think in the second half of the year, my hope is and belief is that you're going to start to see some of those quarters open up. We're pushing everybody really hard. But in the meantime, I think we're fine just because if a quarter is not open, as I said, people are restrained in leaving their country or their territory. And they're going to start traveling when they feel safe, and you're going to keep all that pent-up demand in your local market.

所以這是一個很長的答案，因為它需要如此。情況很複雜。我認為在今年下半年，我的希望和信念是，您將開始看到其中一些季度開放。我們非常努力地推動每個人。但同時，我認為我們還好，因為正如我所說，如果四分之一不開放，人們離開自己的國家或領土就會受到限制。當他們感到安全時，他們就會開始旅行，而你將把所有被壓抑的需求保留在當地市場。

The next question is from Patrick Scholes with Truist.

下一個問題是帕特里克·斯科爾斯和 Truist 提出的。

One of the hot issues of the moment in the -- at the property level is with staffing and wages. I'm wondering your thoughts on this. Do you see that as a temporary issue that hotels can perhaps get by this summer without having to raise wages to attract employees? Or do you see wage inflation inevitable to meet the staffing challenges?

目前房地產層面的熱門議題之一是人員配置和薪資。我想知道你對此的想法。您是否認為這是一個暫時的問題，飯店也許可以度過今年夏天，而不必提高薪資來吸引員工？或者您認為為了應對人員配置的挑戰，薪資上漲不可避免？

Yes. It's a difficult issue as I'm sure if you're talking to the ownership community, you're hearing. And listen, we talk to them every day, and we operate a lot of properties. It is singularly, at the moment, I wouldn't say the only issue when you're in a global pandemic. There's lots of issues, but it's one of the most important issues because it is very difficult, particularly here in the U.S. to get labor, and it is constraining recovery at certain times because you just can't get -- you can't get enough people to service the properties.

是的。這是一個困難的問題，因為我確信如果您正在與所有權社區交談，您就會聽到。聽著，我們每天都與他們交談，我們經營著很多房產。目前，當你處於全球大流行時，我不會說這是唯一的問題。有很多問題，但這是最重要的問題之一，因為獲得勞動力非常困難，特別是在美國，而且在某些時候會限制經濟復甦，因為你無法獲得勞動力。 。

I do think in the short term, I've already said it, and it's implied in earlier questions, there's going to be wage pressure, wage inflation. I do think it will stabilize and then work itself out as we get later into the year. It's a complex issue that is at the intersection of people being concerned about their health still, particularly in some of the communities that we need to get focused back -- in coming back to work. And that's going to take some time, both vaccination and marketing to a number of those communities, to get vaccinated and getting it done and getting them to a place where they feel safe being in a workplace. So that's part of it.

我確實認為，從短期來看，我已經說過了，而且在先前的問題中也暗示了這一點，將會出現薪資壓力、薪資通膨。我確實認為，隨著今年晚些時候，它會穩定下來並自行解決。這是一個複雜的問題，人們仍然擔心自己的健康，特別是在一些我們需要重新專注於重返工作崗位的社區。這將需要一些時間，包括疫苗接種和向其中一些社區的營銷，以完成疫苗接種並讓他們在工作場所感到安全。這就是其中的一部分。

And then the other part of it is getting kids back in school because a lot of people in the workforce are taking care of kids. They don't -- there's no day care, the school becomes daycare. And the federal government, for all the right reasons, way back when did a top-up of unemployment insurance and on top of the state unemployment insurance and obviously sent out $1,400 checks. And they did all these things to support people who are in harm's way, all of which made sense at the time. Maybe some of it makes a little bit less sense now in the sense that the demand is there and the jobs are there, yet people don't have as much of a need to come back to it.

另一部分是讓孩子重返學校，因為很多勞動力都在照顧孩子。他們沒有──沒有日間照顧中心，學校變成了日間照顧中心。聯邦政府出於各種正當理由，很早以前就在州失業保險的基礎上補充了失業保險，並顯然發放了 1,400 美元的支票。他們做了所有這些事情來支持那些處於危險中的人們，所有這些在當時都是有意義的。也許其中一些現在變得不那麼有意義了，因為需求是存在的，工作是存在的，但人們沒有那麼多的需要回到它。

So -- but that, in theory, on September, whatever, 6th, the federal top-up expires. I guess, it could be extended. My impression is it will not be. My hope is it will not be, not because I don't care about the people. I think there's just enough jobs. We literally -- I think, there are 3 million of our, not Hilton, but industry folks still out of work. I think by the time you get to September, October, I think the vast majority of those could easily be reemployed given what I think demand will be in the business. And that's best for everybody, right? It's best for the country. It's best for the individual team members to -- but it's -- that's the convergence of all of that. So I think it's going to be tough. I've been talking to tons of owners.

所以——但從理論上講，聯邦充值將於 9 月 6 日到期。我想，可以延長。我的印像是不會。我希望不會，不是因為我不關心人民。我認為工作崗位就足夠了。我認為，我們確實有 300 萬人（不是希爾頓，而是業界人士）仍然失業。我認為，到了九月、十月，鑑於我認為業務中的需求，我認為絕大多數人可以輕易地重新就業。這對每個人來說都是最好的，對嗎？這對國家來說是最好的。對於各個團隊成員來說，最好的做法是——但事實是——這就是所有這些的融合。所以我認為這會很艱難。我一直在和很多業主交談。

I think it will be tough between now and September. I think when we -- by the time you get to September, mass vaccination will hopefully be behind us. Kids will be back in school, and people will feel safe -- that it's safe to go back, and they want to get back and be earning a paycheck. And so I think it will then stabilize as we get into the latter part of the year.

我認為從現在到九月會很艱難。我想當我們——到九月的時候，大規模疫苗接種有望成為過去。孩子們將回到學校，人們會感到安全——回去是安全的，他們希望回來並賺取薪水。因此，我認為隨著進入今年下半年，它將會穩定下來。

Thank you, Chris. Certainly a complex and evolving issue.

謝謝你，克里斯。當然是一個複雜且不斷發展的問題。

Yes. Trust me, we're spending a lot of -- there's no silver bullet in the short term. We spend a lot of time on it. I think this is one of those you just have to sort of -- you just have to work through it. It will work out because all of those things are going to be changing. And so the conditions are going to change pretty materially as we get to the fall. But between here and there, it's going to be incremental. Then, I think it will be a sea change in the fall.

是的。相信我，我們花了很多錢——短期內沒有靈丹妙藥。我們在這上面花了很多時間。我認為這是你必須要做的事情之一——你必須解決它。一切都會成功，因為所有這些事情都會改變。因此，隨著秋天的到來，情況將會發生相當大的變化。但在這裡和那裡之間，它將是漸進的。然後，我認為秋天將會發生翻天覆地的變化。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the call back to Chris Nassetta for any additional or closing remarks.

女士們先生們，我們的問答環節到此結束。我現在想將電話轉回給克里斯·納塞塔，請其發表補充或結束語。

Chad, thank you, and to everybody that joined us today, we appreciate the time. As always, it's hard to say we're really pleased with where things are, given what we've been through over this last year and that we're still in the middle or towards, hopefully, the end of the pandemic, but we are pleased. I've always had confidence in the business model of ours. I've always had confidence in people's desire to travel for all the reasons they have always wanted to travel. I think the evidence is pretty clear. One, I think the decisions that we made as a result of the crisis have made our business stronger. It will -- we're driving higher market shares, higher margins on a lower cost structure. And then as we see the telltale signs of getting past the health crisis, we're starting to see the world come back to life. And all the reasons I thought people wanted to travel are, I think, playing out the way I and we had hoped for. We have ways to go. So I don't want to be a Pollyanna about it, but we feel good about where we are and definitely incrementally better than we did over the last couple of quarters.

查德，謝謝你，也感謝今天加入我們的每一個人，我們很高興能抽出時間。像往常一樣，鑑於我們去年所經歷的一切，很難說我們對目前的情況感到真正滿意，而且我們仍處於流行病中期或預計結束，但我們很高興。我一直對我們的商業模式充滿信心。我一直對人們旅行的願望充滿信心，因為他們一直想要旅行。我認為證據非常清楚。第一，我認為我們在危機中所做的決定使我們的業務變得更加強大。它將——我們正在以更低的成本結構推動更高的市場份額和更高的利潤。然後，當我們看到擺脫健康危機的明顯跡象時，我們開始看到世界恢復生機。我認為人們想要旅行的所有原因都按照我和我們所希望的方式發揮作用。我們還有路要走。所以我不想對此盲目樂觀，但我們對自己所處的位置感覺良好，並且肯定比過去幾季的表現更好。

So thanks again, and we'll look forward to reporting back after we finish our second quarter.

再次感謝，我們期待在第二季結束後報告。

Thank you, sir. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

謝謝你，先生。會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。