希爾頓酒店 (HLT) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Hilton's First Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Jill Slattery, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Development. You may begin.

早安，歡迎參加希爾頓 2022 年第一季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。現在我想將會議交給投資者關係和企業發展資深副總裁 Jill Slattery。你可以開始了。

Thank you, Chad. Welcome to Hilton's First Quarter 2022 Earnings Call.

謝謝你，查德。歡迎參加希爾頓 2022 年第一季財報電話會議。

Before we begin, we would like to remind you that our discussions this morning will include forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those indicated in the forward-looking statements, and forward-looking statements made today speak only to our expectations as of today. We undertake no obligation to update or revise these statements.

在開始之前，我們想提醒您，我們今天上午的討論將包括前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與前瞻性聲明中所示的結果有重大差異，今天發表的前瞻性聲明僅代表我們截至目前為止的預期。我們不承擔更新或修改這些聲明的義務。

For a discussion of some of the risk factors that could cause actual results to differ, please see the Risk Factors section of our most recently filed Form 10-K.

有關可能導致實際結果不同的一些風險因素的討論，請參閱我們最近提交的表格 10-K 的風險因素部分。

In addition, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures on this call. You can find reconciliations of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures discussed in today's call in our earnings press release and on our website at ir.hilton.com.

此外，我們將在本次電話會議上提及某些非公認會計準則財務指標。您可以在我們的收益新聞稿和我們的網站 ir.hilton.com 上找到今天電話會議中討論的非 GAAP 與 GAAP 財務指標的調整表。

This morning, Chris Nassetta, our President and Chief Executive Officer, will provide an overview of the current operating environment and the company's outlook. Kevin Jacobs, our Chief Financial Officer and President, Global Development, will then review our first quarter results and discuss our expectations for the year. Following their remarks, we'll be happy to take your questions.

今天早上，我們的總裁兼執行長 Chris Nassetta 將概述當前的營運環境和公司的前景。我們的財務長兼全球發展總裁 Kevin Jacobs 隨後將回顧我們第一季的業績並討論我們對今年的預期。在他們的發言之後，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

And with that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Chris.

至此，我很高興將電話轉給克里斯。

Thank you, Jill. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us today.

謝謝你，吉爾。大家早安，感謝您今天加入我們。

Before we begin, I'd like to take a minute to express our sadness at the tragic events continuing to unfold in Ukraine. Our hotels have always been a part of the fabric of the communities we serve, and we take our promise to make those communities better places to live and work very seriously.

在開始之前，我想花一點時間表達我們對烏克蘭持續發生的悲劇的悲傷。我們的酒店一直是我們服務的社區結構的一部分，我們非常認真地承諾讓這些社區成為更好的生活和工作場所。

Along with the steps we've taken to protect our team members and guests, we've also partnered with American Express and our ownership community to donate up to 1 million room nights across Europe to support Ukrainian refugees and humanitarian relief efforts. Additionally, the Hilton Global Foundation has contributed to World Central Kitchen and Project Hope to further assist with the humanitarian aid. We are keeping our Hilton family and everyone impacted by these horrific events in our thoughts and hope for a peaceful resolution to this crisis.

除了採取措施保護我們的團隊成員和客人之外，我們還與美國運通和我們的業主社區合作，在整個歐洲捐贈了多達 100 萬個間夜，以支持烏克蘭難民和人道主義救援工作。此外，希爾頓全球基金會也向世界中央廚房和希望工程捐款，以進一步協助人道援助。我們時時刻刻銘記希爾頓家族和所有受到這些可怕事件影響的人，並希望和平解決這場危機。

Our Hilton values and purpose-led culture have led us through uncertainty as well as recovery. Our team members around the world have worked hard to effectively navigate the challenges over the last 2 years, and as a result, have positioned Hilton even stronger for the future. As we look to the year ahead, we are optimistic that our industry-leading RevPAR premiums and fee-based capital-light business model, coupled with further demand recovery, will continue to drive strong performance and meaningful free cash flow, which will enable us to return significant capital to shareholders in a disciplined way.

我們的希爾頓價值觀和以目標為導向的文化帶領我們度過了不確定性和復甦。過去兩年，我們世界各地的團隊成員努力工作，有效應對挑戰，使希爾頓在未來變得更加強大。展望未來一年，我們樂觀地認為，我們行業領先的RevPAR 保費和基於費用的輕資本業務模式，加上需求的進一步復甦，將繼續推動強勁的業績和有意義的自由現金流，這將使我們能夠以有紀律的方式向股東返還大量資本。

With recent performance exceeding our expectation, we were pleased to have resumed our capital return program earlier than anticipated, beginning share repurchases in March. Through April, we had completed approximately $265 million of buybacks. Additionally, we have declared a $0.15 per share quarterly dividend, further highlighting the confidence in continued recovery and the strength of our model. For the year, we expect to return $1.4 billion to $1.8 billion to shareholders in the form of buybacks and dividends.

由於最近的業績超出了我們的預期，我們很高興比預期更早地恢復了資本回報計劃，並於三月開始了股票回購。截至 4 月份，我們已完成約 2.65 億美元的回購。此外，我們還宣布派發每股 0.15 美元的季度股息，進一步凸顯了對持續復甦的信心和我們模型的優勢。今年，我們預計將以回購和股利的形式向股東返還 14 億至 18 億美元。

Turning to results in the quarter, system-wide RevPAR increased more than 80% year-over-year, driving adjusted EBITDA up 126%. RevPAR was approximately 83% of 2019 levels with adjusted EBITDA at 90%. Despite a choppy start to the year given Omicron related demand pressures, trends picked up meaningfully month-over-month with RevPAR declines versus 2019 improving approximately 17 percentage points from January to March, down only 9% to 2019, driven by acceleration across all segments.

轉向本季業績，全系統 RevPAR 年成長超過 80%，推動調整後 EBITDA 成長 126%。 RevPAR 約為 2019 年水準的 83%，調整後 EBITDA 為 90%。儘管由於Omicron 相關的需求壓力，今年開局不穩，但在所有細分市場加速的推動下，趨勢逐月顯著回升，RevPAR 與2019 年相比下降了約17 個百分點，較2019 年僅下降了9% 。

In March, system-wide rates were up 3% compared to 2019. Strong leisure transient trends continued to boost weekend performance with RevPAR in the quarter exceeding 2019 levels and rates up approximately 9% versus prior peaks, acceleration in business transient and group trends drove meaningful improvement midweek.

3 月份，全系統費率較2019 年上漲3%。團體趨勢的加速推動周中有意義的改善。

U.S. business transient RevPAR increased sequentially versus the fourth quarter, with March down only 9% compared to 2019 levels. Improving trends from large accounts, along with continued strength from SMEs, boosted results. In March, revenue from large accounts was just 12% below 2019. Overall business transient now comprises 45% of total segment mix just 10-point shy of prepandemic levels. For April, overall U.S. transient booked revenue for all future periods was up 17% versus 2019 levels, with rates up 10% and room nights up 7%. Weekday booked revenue was up 9% compared to 2019 and weekend booked revenue was up 38%, driven largely by strong rate gains.

美國企業瞬態 RevPAR 較第四季季增，其中 3 月較 2019 年水準僅下降 9%。大客戶趨勢的改善以及中小企業的持續實力提振了業績。 3 月份，來自大客戶的收入僅比 2019 年低 12%。 4 月份，美國未來所有時期的整體短期預訂收入較 2019 年水準成長 17%，其中房價上漲 10%，間夜數上漲 7%。與 2019 年相比，平日預訂收入成長了 9%，週末預訂收入成長了 38%，這主要得益於強勁的費率成長。

On the group side, social and smaller events continue to lead recovery, while demand for company meetings and conventions improved meaningfully throughout the quarter. In March, total group RevPAR was more than 75% of 2019 levels, improving approximately 25 points versus January. Additionally, group revenue booked in the first quarter for all future periods was down just 4% relative to 2019 levels, and total lead volume for all future periods was up 3.5%. Compared to 2019, our tentative booking revenue is up significantly with rate gains for company meetings up more than 13%. Additionally, rates on new group bookings for in-year arrivals are strong, up in the high single digits versus 2019.

在集團方面，社交和小型活動繼續引領復甦，而公司會議和大會的需求在整個季度顯著改善。 3 月份，集團總 RevPAR 超過 2019 年水準的 75%，比 1 月份提高約 25 個百分點。此外，第一季所有未來期間的集團收入較 2019 年水準僅下降 4%，而未來所有期間的總銷售量成長 3.5%。與 2019 年相比，我們的暫定預訂收入大幅成長，公司會議的費率漲幅超過 13%。此外，年內抵達的新團體預訂率也很強勁，與 2019 年相比出現了較高的個位數成長。

As we look to the balance of the year, we remain optimistic. Positive momentum has continued into the second quarter with April RevPAR tracking at roughly 95% of 2019 levels. While macro risks and uncertainty exists, forecast for economic growth remain healthy. Additionally, our ability to reprice rooms in real time creates a natural inflation hedge. We think there is a good likelihood that we'll reach 2019 system-wide RevPAR levels during the third quarter.

展望今年剩餘時間，我們保持樂觀。積極動能持續到第二季​​度，4 月的 RevPAR 約為 2019 年水準的 95%。儘管存在宏觀風險和不確定性，但對經濟成長的預測仍然健康。此外，我們即時重新定價房間的能力創造了自然的通膨對沖。我們認為第三季我們很有可能達到 2019 年全系統 RevPAR 水準。

For the full year, we expect leisure RevPAR to exceed 2019 peak levels given excess consumer savings, a strong job market and pent-up demand. We expect business transient to be roughly back to 2019 levels by year-end, with expectations supported by rising corporate profits, rebounding demand from big businesses, and loosening travel restrictions. On the group side, we expect RevPAR to be at approximately 90% of 2019 levels by year-end, as demand for company meetings and convention business accelerates into the back half of the year.

鑑於消費者儲蓄過剩、強勁的就業市場和被壓抑的需求，我們預計全年休閒 RevPAR 將超過 2019 年的峰值水準。我們預計，在企業利潤成長、大企業需求反彈以及旅行限制放鬆的支撐下，到年底商業瞬態將大致恢復到 2019 年的水平。集團方面，隨著下半年公司會議和會議業務的需求加速成長，我們預計到年底，每間可用客房收入將達到 2019 年水準的 90% 左右。

On the development front, our leading RevPAR index premiums and powerful commercial engines continued to drive out performance. In the quarter, we added more than 13,000 rooms and achieved 5% net unit growth. We continue to deliver on our commitment to disciplined and strategic growth, celebrating important milestones across segments and geographies. We opened our 500th Homewood in the U.S., our 50th Hilton Garden Inn in Asia Pacific and debuted our largest hotel in the Asia Pacific region with the opening of the 1,080 room Hilton Singapore Orchard. With a contemporary design, innovative dining experiences and extensive meeting space, the property is a fantastic representation of our flagship brand and puts us in an even stronger position in Asia to usher in a new era of travel.

在發展方面，我們領先的 RevPAR 指數溢價和強大的商業引擎繼續推動業績成長。本季度，我們新增了 13,000 多間客房，實現了 5% 的淨單位成長。我們繼續履行對紀律和策略性成長的承諾，慶祝跨部門和地區的重要里程碑。我們在美國開設了第 500 家希爾頓惠庭酒店，在亞太地區開設了第 50 家希爾頓花園酒店，並開設了亞太地區最大的酒店，擁有 1,080 間客房的新加坡烏節希爾頓酒店開業。飯店擁有現代設計、創新的餐飲體驗和寬敞的會議空間，是我們旗艦品牌的絕佳代表，使我們在亞洲處於更有利的地位，開創旅行的新時代。

Building on last quarter's momentum, we also continued expanding our lifestyle portfolio with the openings of the Canopy Boston Downtown and the Canopy New Orleans. Even with strong openings, we grew our pipeline to more than 410,000 rooms up year-over-year and versus the fourth quarter. We continue to lead the industry in new development signings with Home2 Suites surpassing all other competitor brands globally. We demonstrated our commitment to further expand our luxury and lifestyle portfolios in the world's most sought-after destinations with the signing of the Waldorf Astoria Sydney, the Conrad Austin Hotel & Residences, and Canopy Properties in Cannes and Downtown Nashville.

在上個季度的勢頭基礎上，我們也繼續擴大我們的生活方式組合，開設了 Canopy Boston Downtown 和 Canopy New Orleans。即使空缺數量較多，我們的客房數量仍比去年同期（與第四季相比）增加到超過 410,000 間。我們在新開發項目簽約方面繼續引領行業，Home2 Suites 超越了全球所有其他競爭對手品牌。我們簽署了雪梨華爾道夫酒店、奧斯汀康萊德酒店及公寓以及坎城和納許維爾市中心的 Canopy Properties 項目，展現了我們在全球最受歡迎的目的地進一步拓展奢華和生活方式產品組合的承諾。

We look forward to delivering world-class service and unforgettable experiences in these exciting destinations. Conversion signings in the quarter were up 15% year-over-year and represented nearly 20% of overall signings. In recent months, we signed agreements to bring our conversion-friendly brands, Curio and Tapestry to exciting destinations like the Galapagos Islands, San Sebastian Spain, Maui and Sonoma County, California. DoubleTree has continued to lead the way for European upscale growth with new conversion properties across France, Germany and the Netherlands.

我們期待在這些令人興奮的目的地提供世界一流的服務和難忘的體驗。本季的轉會簽約量年增 15%，佔總簽約量的近 20%。近幾個月來，我們簽署了協議，將我們的轉化友善品牌Curio 和Tapestry 帶到加拉巴哥群島、西班牙聖塞巴斯蒂安、毛伊島和加州索諾瑪縣等令人興奮的目的地。逸林酒店持續引領歐洲高端發展，在法國、德國和荷蘭開設了新的改建物業。

While rising costs are pressuring construction starts, we are on track to deliver 5% net unit growth for the year and remain confident in our ability to return to a 6% to 7% growth rate over the next few years. Reliable and friendly service are at the heart of our promise to our guests and we continue to leverage our direct channels to offer them even more personalized experiences. Direct bookings continued to grow in the quarter and represent roughly 75% of our total bookings led by growth in Digital Direct. OTA mix continued to decline and is approaching pre-pandemic levels as increases in business transient and group demand shifted customer mix.

雖然成本上漲給開工帶來壓力，但我們今年預計將實現 5% 的淨單位成長，並對未來幾年恢復 6% 至 7% 的成長率仍然充滿信心。可靠和友善的服務是我們對客人承諾的核心，我們將繼續利用我們的直接管道為他們提供更個人化的體驗。本季直接預訂持續成長，在數位直接成長的帶動下，約佔總預訂量的 75%。隨著業務瞬態的增加和團體需求的改變，客戶組合發生了變化，OTA 組合繼續下降，並正在接近疫情前的水平。

In the quarter, Hilton Honors membership grew 15% to more than 133 million members. Honors members accounted for 60% of occupancy, flat versus the first quarter of 2019. And average nights per member were up 11% year-over-year as engagement continued to grow.

本季度，希爾頓榮譽客會會員人數增加了 15%，達到超過 1.33 億會員。榮譽會員的入住率達到 60%，與 2019 年第一季持平。

As we continue recovering from the impacts of the pandemic, I am inspired every day by the dedication of our team members as we welcome more guests back to our hotels. It's because of them and our culture of hospitality, that we continue to be recognized as a Great Place To Work. In fact, Hilton was recently named the #2 best company to work for in the United States by Fortune and Great Place to Work, something I'm truly proud of.

隨著我們繼續從大流行的影響中恢復，我每天都受到我們團隊成員的奉獻精神的鼓舞，因為我們歡迎更多的客人回到我們的酒店。正是因為他們和我們的熱情好客文化，我們才繼續被公認為「最佳工作場所」。事實上，希爾頓最近被《財星》雜誌和《最佳工作場所》評為全美第二大最適合工作的公司，對此我感到非常自豪。

And now I'll turn the call over to Kevin for more details on our results in the quarter and our expectations for the year ahead. Kevin?

現在我將把電話轉給凱文，以了解有關我們本季業績以及對未來一年的預期的更多詳細資訊。凱文？

Thanks, Chris, and good morning, everyone. During the quarter, system-wide RevPAR grew 80.5% versus the prior year on a comparable and currency-neutral basis. System-wide RevPAR was down 17% compared to 2019, impacted by the Omicron variant. Following a seasonally slow start to the year, demand picked up across all segments and regions in March, driven by continued strength in leisure demand and loosening corporate travel restrictions. Performance was driven by both occupancy and rate growth.

謝謝克里斯，大家早安。本季度，在可比較和貨幣中性的基礎上，全系統的 RevPAR 與前一年相比成長了 80.5%。受 Omicron 變異體的影響，全系統 RevPAR 較 2019 年下降了 17%。繼今年開局季節性放緩後，在休閒需求持續強勁和商務旅行限制放鬆的推動下，3 月份所有細分市場和地區的需求均有所回升。業績受到入住率和房價成長的推動。

Adjusted EBITDA was $448 million in the first quarter. Results reflect the continued recovery in travel demand. Management and franchise fees grew 79%, driven by meaningful RevPAR improvement and strong Honors license fees. Continued cost control further benefited results. Our ownership portfolio posted a loss for the quarter due to the more challenging operating environment, particularly at the start of the year in Europe and Japan, where the portfolio is concentrated. Fixed rent payments at some of our leased properties also pressured results.

第一季調整後 EBITDA 為 4.48 億美元。結果反映了旅行需求的持續復甦。在每間可用收入顯著改善和強勁的榮譽許可費的推動下，管理和特許經營費增長了 79%。持續的成本控制進一步有利於績效。由於經營環境更具挑戰性，我們的所有權投資組合本季出現虧損，特別是在年初，投資組合集中的歐洲和日本。我們的部分租賃物業的固定租金支付也給業績帶來壓力。

However, performance improved throughout the quarter, driven by strengthening demand across Europe in March. Rebounding fundamentals, coupled with cost discipline should continue to drive significant growth in operating performance going forward. For the quarter, diluted earnings per share adjusted for special items was $0.71.

然而，在 3 月歐洲需求增強的推動下，整個季度的業績有所改善。基本面的反彈加上成本控制應該會繼續推動未來經營績效的顯著成長。本季度，經特殊項目調整後的攤薄每股收益為 0.71 美元。

Turning to our regional performance. First quarter comparable U.S. RevPAR grew 77% year-over-year and was down 13% versus 2019. While the Omicron variant weighed on demand at the beginning of the year, RevPAR improved 17 percentage points over the course of the quarter, with March down less than 6% versus 2019. Leisure travel continued to lead the recovery with segment RevPAR exceeding 2019 levels for the quarter. Upticks in business transient and group travel, particularly in March, also contributed to solid performance in the quarter.

轉向我們的區域表現。第一季美國可比 RevPAR 年增 77%，與 2019 年相比下降 13%。相比不到6%。商務旅行和團體旅行的增加，特別是在 3 月份，也為本季的穩健業績做出了貢獻。

In the Americas outside of the U.S., first quarter RevPAR increased 137% year-over-year and was down 17% versus 2019. The Omicron variant suppressed demand in January and February, but rebounded in March led by strong leisure demand, particularly at resort properties during the spring break season.

在美國以外的美洲地區，第一季每間可用客房營收年增137%，與2019 年相比下降17%。反彈，尤其是在度假村春假期間的房產。

In Europe, RevPAR grew 349% year-over-year and was down 30% to 2019. Travel demand accelerated following the Omicron outbreak with March RevPAR down 13% compared to 2019. The region benefited from easing travel restrictions and an increase in cross-border travel.

在歐洲，RevPAR 年成長349%，到2019 年下降了30%。的增加。

In the Middle East and Africa region, RevPAR increased 121% year-over-year and was up 8% versus 2019. Performance continued to benefit from strong domestic leisure demand and greater international inbound travel as travel restrictions across Europe loosened.

在中東和非洲地區，每間可用客房收入年增 121%，較 2019 年增長 8%。

In the Asia Pacific region, first quarter RevPAR grew 11% year-over-year and was down 47% versus 2019. RevPAR in China was down 45% compared to 2019, as travel restrictions and reimposed lockdown suppressed demand. The rest of the Asia Pacific region saw modest improvement in demand recovery as more countries loosened border and arrival controls in March.

在亞太地區，第一季的 RevPAR 年增 11%，較 2019 年下降 47%。隨著三月更多國家放鬆邊境和入境管制，亞太地區其他地區的需求復甦略有改善。

Turning to development. As Chris mentioned, in the first quarter, we grew net units 5%. Our pipeline grew sequentially, totaling over 410,000 rooms at the end of the quarter, with 60% of pipeline rooms located outside the U.S. and roughly half under construction. We continue to see robust demand for Hilton-branded properties, demonstrating owner and developer confidence in our strong commercial engines and industry-leading brands. For the full year, we expect signings to increase in the mid- to high-single-digit range year-over-year, and we expect net unit growth of approximately 5%.

轉向發展。正如 Chris 所提到的，第一季度，我們的淨銷量成長了 5%。我們的待建客房數量持續成長，截至本季末，客房總數超過 41 萬間，其中 60% 的待建客房位於美國境外，約有一半正在興建中。我們繼續看到對希爾頓品牌酒店的強勁需求，這表明業主和開發商對我們強大的商業引擎和行業領先品牌的信心。就全年而言，我們預計簽約量將同比增長在中高個位數範圍內，我們預計淨銷量增長約為 5%。

Moving to guidance. For the second quarter, we expect system-wide RevPAR growth to be between 45% and 50% year-over-year or down 5% to 10% compared to second quarter 2019. We expect adjusted EBITDA of between $590 million and $610 million, and diluted EPS, adjusted for special items, to be between $0.98 and $1.03. For the full year 2022, we expect RevPAR growth between 32% and 38%. Relative to 2019, we expect RevPAR growth to be down 5% to 9%. We forecast adjusted EBITDA of between $2.25 billion and $2.35 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of more than 40% at the midpoint, and essentially recovered to peak 2019 adjusted EBITDA.

轉向指導。對於第二季度，我們預計全系統的RevPAR 年成長將在45% 至50% 之間，或與2019 年第二季相比下降5% 至10%。 6.1 億美元之間，經特殊項目調整後的稀釋每股收益在 0.98 美元至 1.03 美元之間。對於 2022 年全年，我們預計 RevPAR 成長在 32% 至 38% 之間。與 2019 年相比，我們預計 RevPAR 成長將下降 5% 至 9%。我們預計調整後 EBITDA 在 22.5 億美元至 23.5 億美元之間，中點年增率超過 40%，基本恢復至 2019 年調整後 EBITDA 高峰。

We forecast diluted EPS, adjusted for special items, of between $3.77 and $4.02. Please note that our guidance ranges do not incorporate future share repurchases.

我們預計經特殊項目調整後的攤薄每股收益將在 3.77 美元至 4.02 美元之間。請注意，我們的指導範圍不包括未來的股票回購。

As Chris mentioned, we reinstated our share repurchase program in March, which had been suspended during the pandemic. Year-to-date through April, we completed approximately $265 million in buybacks and our Board also authorized a quarterly cash dividend of $0.15 per share in the second quarter. For the full year, we expect to return between $1.4 billion and $1.8 billion to shareholders in the form of buybacks and dividends, based on our adjusted EBITDA forecast and assuming the high end of our target leverage range of 3 to 3.5x.

正如克里斯所提到的，我們在三月恢復了在大流行期間暫停的股票回購計劃。今年迄今截至 4 月份，我們完成了約 2.65 億美元的回購，董事會也批准第二季每股 0.15 美元的季度現金股利。根據我們調整後的 EBITDA 預測，並假設目標槓桿範圍的上限為 3 至 3.5 倍，我們預計全年將以回購和股息的形式向股東回報 14 億至 18 億美元。

After demonstrating the strength and resiliency of our business model during the pandemic, we continue to evaluate the possibility of a modestly higher target leverage range in the future. Overall, we are proud of how we navigated the pandemic and remain confident in our ability to continue generating substantial free cash flow and delivering meaningful shareholder returns through buybacks and dividends.

在展示了我們的業務模式在疫情期間的實力和彈性後，我們繼續評估未來適度提高目標槓桿範圍的可能性。總體而言，我們對如何應對這場流行病感到自豪，並對我們繼續產生大量自由現金流並透過回購和股息提供有意義的股東回報的能力充滿信心。

Further details on our first quarter results can be found in the earnings release we issued earlier this morning.

有關我們第一季業績的更多詳細信息，請參閱我們今天早上發布的收益報告。

This completes our prepared remarks. We would now like to open the line for any questions you may have. We would like to speak with all of you this morning, so we ask that you limit yourself to 1 question. Chad, can we have our first question, please?

我們準備好的演講到此結束。我們現在願意為您解答任何問題。今天早上我們想與大家交談，因此我們要求您只提出 1 個問題。查德，我們可以問第一個問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions) And the first question will be from Joe Greff from JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）第一個問題將由摩根大通的 Joe Greff 提出。

Chris, how much of your second quarter and full year RevPAR guidance is occupancy-driven versus rate driven? How does moderating growth in leisure volumes, just given the tough comparisons and relatively higher growth in business transient group volumes, impact the blend of ADR and ADR growth in the second half?

克里斯，您的第二季度和全年 RevPAR 指導中有多少是入住率驅動的，而不是費率驅動的？考慮到嚴格的比較和商務短期團體數量的相對較高增長，休閒數量的溫和增長將如何影響下半年的 ADR 和 ADR 增長？

Yes. I mean, we gave a lot of commentary on rate growth in the sense of giving you as much visibility as we had to represent the strength that we're seeing. I mean, we're wonderful, as I said in my prepared comments, inflation hedge because we can reprice every minute of every day.

是的。我的意思是，我們對利率增長給出了很多評論，因為我們必須代表我們所看到的實力，所以給您盡可能多的可見性。我的意思是，正如我在準備好的評論中所說，我們很棒，對沖通膨，因為我們可以每天的每一分鐘重新定價。

And as demand has picked up, we have certainly been able to do that, and we expect that we will continue to be able to do that. I think as the year goes on, we expect the largest part of RevPAR growth to come from rate growth. We obviously expect to see occupancy growth as well. But I think net-net, it will be majority driven by rate.

隨著需求的回升，我們當然能夠做到這一點，並且我們預計我們將繼續能夠做到這一點。我認為隨著時間的推移，我們預計 RevPAR 成長的最大部分將來自費率成長。我們顯然預期入住率也會成長。但我認為淨淨，這將主要由費率驅動。

In terms of the segments, leisure, broadly remains quite strong. I mean, right now, I think the number is consumers still have $2.5 trillion of excess savings that they accumulated during the pandemic in their pockets. While people have been out traveling a lot more than they had maybe a year ago, there's still a lot of people that haven't and a lot of people that really want to get out and have experiences. And so people that we have pretty full employment. People have a lot of money in their bank accounts. And I think now feel quite safe broadly, certainly here in the U.S., not everywhere in the world. Obviously, the world is a big place, but in the Western world feel safe going out.

就細分市場而言，休閒總體上仍然相當強勁。我的意思是，現在，我認為消費者的口袋裡仍然有2.5兆美元的超額儲蓄，這是他們在疫情期間累積的。儘管人們出去旅行的次數比一年前要多得多，但仍然有很多人沒有出去旅行，也有很多人真的想出去旅行並體驗一下。所以人們認為我們的就業相當充分。人們的銀行帳戶裡有很多錢。我認為現在總體上感覺相當安全，尤其是在美國，而不是在世界各地。顯然，世界很大，但在西方世界，外出感覺很安全。

And so we expect to see very strong leisure continue. I mean we think we'll probably have the biggest leisure summer we've ever had, only to surpass last summer, which was the biggest leisure summer we had ever seen, prior to what I think we'll see this summer. And then as we get into the fall and as people go -- are back more in the office, which we certainly are seeing now and expect to see more of, we're seeing, as I articulated and Kevin did as well, we're seeing a very nice uptick in return to business transient and return on the group side.

因此，我們預計休閒活動將持續保持強勁勢頭。我的意思是，我們認為我們可能會經歷有史以來最盛大的休閒夏季，只會超越去年夏天，這是我們所見過的最盛大的休閒夏季，先於我認為今年夏天我們將看到的情況。然後，隨著我們進入秋季，隨著人們的離開，更多人回到辦公室，我們現在肯定會看到這種情況，並預計會看到更多，我們看到，正如我和凱文所做的那樣，我們'我們看到業務瞬態回報和集團方面的回報都出現了非常好的增長。

The group side lags a little bit as we know. There's more planning involved in that, but we think the second half of the year is going to get stronger and stronger. And business transient, even over the last couple of months, we've seen pick up. And notably, and something I commented on in my prepared remarks, we've even seen the large corporates start to come back, where March was only 12% down. And April, you can assume was better. We don't have all the data on the breakdown in April, but certainly broadly, business transient was even better in April.

據我們所知，小組賽有點落後。這涉及更多的計劃，但我們認為下半年會變得越來越強大。業務瞬息萬變，即使在過去的幾個月裡，我們也看到了回升。值得注意的是，正如我在準備好的演講中評論的那樣，我們甚至看到大型企業開始復甦，3 月僅下降了 12%。而四月，你可以認為情況會更好。我們沒有 4 月細分的所有數據，但總體而言，4 月的業務瞬態情況甚至更好。

So businesses have a lot of pent-up demand, needs for travel. Balance sheets are very, very strong. Profits are very strong. Liquidity is very, very strong. And so I think the combination of that, with what's going on with the consumer, and then sort of the icing on the cake is the group side, where there's just so much new demand, but then pent-up demand, all of which I think will start to converge here in the second half of this year and into next year. I think puts us in a place where we feel really good about the short to intermediate term, and both the demand side, but particularly the rate side.

所以企業有很多被壓抑的需求，出差的需求。資產負債表非常非常強勁。利潤非常強勁。流動性非常非常強。所以我認為，結合消費者的情況，然後錦上添花的是集團方面，那裡有很多新的需求，但也有被壓抑的需求，所有這些我想法將在今年下半年和明年開始聚合。我認為，我們對短期到中期以及需求方面，尤其是利率方面都感覺非常良好。

And again, the reason I gave, the stats I did about forward-looking booking trends on the transient side, which obviously only is so far out. But on the Group side, was that we really are seeing the ability to drive pricing power like a lot of industries are, but certainly makes us -- gives us the optimism that has led to our judgments on both giving guidance, but also on our return to capital program and the like.

再說一次，我給出的原因是我對瞬態方面的前瞻性預訂趨勢所做的統計，這顯然只是到目前為止。但在集團方面，我們確實看到了像許多行業一樣推動定價能力的能力，但肯定使我們感到樂觀，這使我們對提供指導和我們的判斷感到樂觀。

And the next question will be from Carlo Santarelli from Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題將由德意志銀行的 Carlo Santarelli 提出。

Chris, you talked a little bit about kind of business transient back at 45% versus, I believe, that was probably closer to 55% prepandemic. And obviously, group is probably a couple of hundred below its normal mix. As that stuff comes back and you think about maybe a full year 2023 and occupancy in general, what kind of pricing power do you think you have at occupancy levels that are kind of commensurate with 2019 levels, which I believe were kind of 143%, 144%-ish?

Chris，您談到了 45% 的業務瞬態，我相信，疫情爆發前的數字可能更接近 55%。顯然，該群體的人數可能比正常情況下少數百人。當這些東西回來時，你會想到 2023 年全年和總體入住率，你認為你在與 2019 年水平相當的入住率水平上有什麼樣的定價能力，我認為 2019 年的水平是 143%， 144 %左右？

Yes. Well, let me -- first, in terms of the mix, it's probably worth stating because I commented a teeny bit in my prepared comments. You're right, business transit sort of the mix pre-COVID was plus or minus 55 business transient, 25 leisure transient and 20 group. If you look at, sort of what I would sort of call, the bottom of the recession driven by the pandemic, it went to 35 business transient, 55 leisure and 10 group. Now it's 45 business transient, 39 leisure and 16 group.

是的。好吧，讓我——首先，就組合而言，這可能值得說明，因為我在準備好的評論中評論了一點。你是對的，新冠疫情之前的商務交通混合是正負 55 人的商務交通、25 人的休閒交通和 20 人的團體交通。如果你看一下，我所說的，由大流行推動的經濟衰退的底部，有 35 名商務旅客、55 名休閒旅客和 10 名團體旅客。目前，商務旅客為45人，休閒旅客為39人，團體旅客為16人。

And I've been saying this so pretty much for 2 years. In the beginning, people maybe thought it was crazy, but that when we wake up and this sort of flushes through the system and we get fully on the other side of it, that business mix is going to look an awful lot like it did pre-COVID. And I think we're on our way to that. And so I think when we look -- maybe not , I think leisure transient will probably remain elevated for a while. But I think it will -- it is regressing to the mean, and it will look more like it did than like it has looked, in '23 and certainly in '24.

兩年來我一直在這麼說。 In the beginning, people maybe thought it was crazy, but that when we wake up and this sort of flushes through the system and we get fully on the other side of it, that business mix is going to look an awful lot like it did pre -嚴重特殊傳染性肺炎.我認為我們正在朝著這個目標邁進。因此，我認為，當我們觀察時——也許不是，我認為休閒短暫性可能會在一段時間內保持在高水準。但我認為它會——它正在回歸平均值，而且看起來更像是過去的樣子，而不是23年的樣子，當然還有24年的樣子。

In terms of broader pricing pressure, as all that comes back, not to be pedantic about it, but it's sort of the laws of supply and demand, the law -- economics, which is, if we have a product that's in high demand and increasing demand, and there's not a lot more -- there's not enough supply and not a lot is being added, which is sort of the case in terms of what's going on with all of our segments increasingly so in midweek and that's only going to increase and then you compound that with getting a decent group base starting in the second half of the year and the next year, I think we'll have meaningful pricing power next year, just because the laws of supply and demand suggest we should. And I think they're alive and well.

就更廣泛的定價壓力而言，正如所有這些回來的那樣，不要對此迂腐，但這是一種供需法則，即經濟學，也就是說，如果我們有一種需求量很大的產品，並且需求不斷增加，而且沒有更多——供應不足，也沒有增加太多，就我們所有細分市場的情況而言，這種情況在周中越來越多，而且只會增加然後，從下半年和明年開始，我們將擁有一個不錯的集團基礎，我認為明年我們將擁有有意義的定價能力，只是因為供需法則表明我們應該這樣做。我認為他們還活著並且活得很好。

The next question comes from Shaun Kelley from Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的肖恩凱利。

Not to probably overly dig into this, but Chris, I think in the prepared comments, you mentioned that April was running down only about 5%. That's obviously already kind of at the top end of the guidance you provided for the second quarter. So I think we all get that the background sounds pretty optimistic. But could you just help us kind of reconcile that? And maybe just some of the puts and takes around what it would take for things to be better than -- a little bit better than maybe what you've laid out in the guidance and/or what factors might have led you to be a little bit more conservative?

可能不會過度探究這一點，但克里斯，我認為在準備好的評論中，您提到 4 月僅下降了約 5%。這顯然已經是您為第二季度提供的指導的最高端。所以我想我們都知道背景聽起來相當樂觀。但你能幫我們協調一下嗎？也許只是一些看跌期權和採取的措施，讓事情變得比你在指南中列出的更好一點，和/或哪些因素可能導致你變得更好一點保守一點？

Yes. Well, I mean, the guidance we gave is the guidance we gave. First of all -- I mean I think, Shaun, there are -- it's a good question. I think there are some comp issues in certain months. But honestly, if you listen -- if you replay what I just said in response to Carlo's question, we believe that we're going to continue to see a very strong leisure demand base and an increasingly strong leisure -- business transient and group base as we march through the next few quarters of this year and into next year.

是的。嗯，我的意思是，我們給的指導就是我們給的指導。首先——我的意思是，肖恩，我認為——這是一個很好的問題。我認為某些月份會出現一些補償問題。但老實說，如果你聽——如果你重播我剛才回答卡洛問題時所說的話，我們相信我們將繼續看到非常強勁的休閒需求基礎和日益強大的休閒——商務短暫和團體基礎當我們邁入今年接下來的幾季並進入明年。

So we're not trying to signal in our guidance that we think there's something going on from a weakening point of view. We think things are strengthening.

因此，我們並不是試圖在指引中表明，我們認為從疲軟的角度來看，正在發生一些事情。我們認為事情正在加強。

Sorry to split hairs there. And maybe just as a quick follow-up, probably for Kevin. But could you just talk a little bit about -- obviously, the capital return guidance is super encouraging. Does that have you holding a specific leverage target? Or you've mentioned a couple of times in the past about possibly revisiting what that target would be, but what sort of implied in the $1.4 billion to $1.8 billion that we're getting here, and does that leave you a little bit of room to go even higher still, should you reevaluate it?

很抱歉在那裡吹毛求疵。也許只是作為一個快速的後續行動，可能是為了凱文。但您能否簡單談談——顯然，資本回報指導非常令人鼓舞。您是否持有特定的槓桿目標？或者您過去曾多次提到可能會重新審視該目標，但我們目前達到的 14 億至 18 億美元意味著什麼，這是否給您留下了一點空間如果還要走得更高，你應該重新評估它嗎？

Yes, Shaun. I mentioned this in my prepared remarks that may have been a little garbled, but it implies -- at the high end of the range, it implies 3.5x. So embedded in that, yes, we've said and I said it in my prepared remarks that we continue to think about potentially increasing leverage modestly over time. We think the balance sheet has shown that it can handle a higher level of leverage and the business can handle a higher level of leverage given what we just went through.

是的，肖恩。我在準備好的發言中提到了這一點，可能有點混亂，但它意味著——在範圍的高端，它意味著 3.5 倍。因此，是的，我們已經說過，而且我在準備好的發言中也說過，我們將繼續考慮隨著時間的推移適度增加槓桿率的可能性。我們認為資產負債表已經表明它可以處理更高水準的槓桿，鑑於我們剛剛經歷的情況，企業可以處理更高水準的槓桿。

And -- but there's still a lot of uncertainty in the world. And so we're starting with effectively 0.25x increase at the midpoint by saying we're at the high end of the range, and we'll take it from there.

而且——但是世界上仍然存在著許多不確定性。因此，我們從中點有效增加 0.25 倍開始，並說我們處於範圍的高端，我們將從那裡開始。

And the next question is from Thomas Allen from Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的湯瑪斯艾倫。

Just a couple of follow-up questions on NUG growth. What's your level of confidence in the 5% guide this year? Any updated thoughts on timing or getting back to 6% to 7%? And just how are developments in China going?

關於 NUG 成長的幾個後續問題。您對今年 5% 指導方針的信心程度如何？關於時機或回到 6% 至 7% 有什麼最新想法嗎？中國的事態發展到底如何？

Yes, sure. No problem. Look, we're giving you the guidance. So we're highly confident that we can achieve it. Obviously, a lot of the stuff that's going on and that's going to deliver this year is construction in progress, and we have a pretty good handle on that. I mean getting back to where we were before. I mean Chris said it in his prepared remarks, over the next few years, getting back to 6% to 7% is going to mean that starts need to start getting back to where they were.

是的，當然。沒問題。看，我們正在為您提供指導。因此，我們非常有信心能夠實現這一目標。顯然，今年正在進行的、將要交付的許多東西都是在建工程，我們對此有很好的處理。我的意思是回到我們之前的狀態。我的意思是克里斯在他準備好的演講中說過，在接下來的幾年裡，回到 6% 到 7% 將意味著開始需要開始回到原來的水平。

Now starts this year, we think, will be about flat maybe slightly down. That will be down in the U.S., up in international, which is consistent with what we've been saying. We're still going to start 66,000 rooms for construction this year, which we think is still a pretty good rate of conversions. And then we think that on a run rate basis, and some of that's going to be filled in by conversions. I mean, we mentioned some of that in our prepared remarks. Conversions, we think, are going to be up, were up 35% in the first quarter -- year-over-year. We think they're going to be up around 25% -- to about 25% or higher of our deliveries this year, so that will help fill in.

我們認為，今年開始，將基本持平，甚至略有下降。美國的數字將下降，國際的數字將上升，這與我們一直所說的一致。今年我們仍將開工 66,000 個房間，我們認為這仍然是一個相當不錯的轉換率。然後我們認為，在運行率的基礎上，其中一些將透過轉換來填補。我的意思是，我們在準備好的發言中提到了其中的一些內容。我們認為，第一季的轉換率將年增 35%。我們認為今年的交付量將成長 25% 左右，達到約 25% 或更高，因此這將有助於填補這一空缺。

And then we think we'll get back to that run rate on a run rate basis sometime in 2024. We think we'll be back to the 6% to 7%.

然後我們認為我們將在 2024 年的某個時候恢復到運行率。

And then, sorry, just on China?

然後，抱歉，只針對中國？

Oh yes, sorry, China, sorry. Yes. Look, China, what's going on now is that's very much in that part of the world, a face-to-face culture, right? So the fact that they're locked down in Shanghai, a little bit in Beijing, and other places is stopping signings temporarily, but we still think we're going to be up slightly in terms of construction starts. And we think we're going to open about 20% more rooms in China this year than we did last year. And so we think that once you get past kind of what's going on there on the ground, that there's plenty of pent-up demand for the product, and once people can start moving around, we'll be back to sort of business as usual in China.

哦，是的，對不起，中國，對不起。是的。你看，中國，現在正在發生的事情在世界的那個地區非常流行，一種面對面的文化，對吧？事實上，他們在上海、北京和其他地方都被封鎖，暫時停止了簽約，但我們仍然認為開工率會略有上升。我們認為今年我們在中國開設的客房數量將比去年增加約 20%。因此，我們認為，一旦你擺脫了當地正在發生的事情，對該產品就會有大量被壓抑的需求，一旦人們可以開始四處走動，我們就會恢復正常的業務在中國。

The next question is from Stephen Grambling from Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的史蒂芬‧格蘭布林（Stephen Grambling）。

On the contract acquisition cost side, it looks like in your guidance, ticked up a bit versus pre-pandemic levels. How should we think about this level versus a normalized run rate over the next few years? And is that investment coming in the form of loans and mezzanine equity? Or is it just straight investment in the deals without a future interest?

在合約採購成本方面，在您的指導中，與大流行前的水平相比，似乎有所上升。我們應該如何看待這個水準與未來幾年的標準化運作率？該投資是否以貸款和夾層股權的形式出現？還是只是對交易的直接投資，沒有未來的利息？

Yes, sure. I think, look, it is -- this year's guidance implies a little bit lower than last year -- for a start. It is up over 2019. It's largely a good news story, as we've talked about on prior calls, right?

是的，當然。我認為，看，今年的指導意味著比去年略低。 2019 年已經過去了。

I mean -- and it's almost entirely key money. It's not to say that, we never do a little bit of credit support or a little bit of a handful of mezz loans here and there, but it's almost entirely key money that has that elevated from pre-pandemic levels. There's some great deals. Last year like Monarch Beach and -- are all inclusive in Tulum and deals like that -- Resorts World Las Vegas was one of the big ones.

我的意思是──這幾乎都是禮金。這並不是說，我們從來沒有提供過一點信貸支持，也沒有到處提供少量夾層貸款，但這幾乎完全是關鍵資金，比大流行前的水平有所提高。有一些很棒的優惠。去年，像帝王海灘和圖盧姆全包式度假村以及類似的交易一樣，拉斯維加斯名勝世界就是其中之一。

And so those are great deals to win. Some of them are -- sometimes they're conversions as in Monarch Beach, and so they're in the year for the year deals, and they get a little bit of expensive at the high end, as we've talked about. This year's guidance implies a little bit lower than last year, and we'd like to think it will be around there for the next couple of years, because we'd like to think we continue to win more than our fair share of these great deals.

因此，這些都是值得贏得的偉大交易。其中一些是——有時它們是像君主海灘那樣的轉換，所以它們是年度優惠，而且正如我們所討論的，它們在高端的價格有點貴。今年的指導意味著比去年稍低一些，我們希望在未來幾年內保持這一水平，因為我們希望繼續贏得超過我們應得的份額。

And I think what I'd say overall in closing is, I think it's still only 10% of our deals, 90% of our deals require no capital support from us whatsoever. And I think that our contract acquisition cost still holds up pretty well versus our competitors.

我認為總的來說，我想說的是，我認為這仍然只是我們交易的 10%，我們 90% 的交易不需要我們提供任何資本支持。我認為與我們的競爭對手相比，我們的合約取得成本仍然相當不錯。

The next question is from David Katz from Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 David Katz。

I just wanted to go back to the notion of NUG and construction starts, et cetera, because we do continue to hear bits and pieces around supply chain and availability and cost of materials. Can you just elaborate maybe a bit more on what you're baking into your guide and your thoughts from that perspective?

我只是想回到 NUG 和施工開始等概念，因為我們確實不斷聽到有關供應鏈、材料可用性和成本的點點滴滴。您能否詳細說明一下您在指南中添加的內容以及從這個角度的想法？

Yes, happy to, David. I think that, look, the factors are well known, right? Input costs are up. You've got tightness in the labor markets. You've got input prices in terms of commodities. You've got financing. All of which has been the case for a while. And believe it or not, despite what you read, it's actually easing a little bit at the moment, but it's still elevated. And that's all baked into the guidance, right? That's why construction starts will be flat to slightly down this year. Otherwise, they would probably be up materially. They're down 25% roughly to where they were in 2019.

是的，很高興，大衛。我認為，看，這些因素是眾所周知的，對嗎？投入成本上升。勞動市場緊張。您已經獲得了商品的投入價格。你有融資。所有這些情況已經有一段時間了。不管你信不信，不管你讀到了什麼，目前實際上已經有所緩解，但仍然很高。這些都已納入指南中，對嗎？這就是為什麼今年的開工率將持平或略有下降。否則，他們可能會在物質上上漲。與 2019 年的水準相比，大約下降了 25%。

Demand for the product -- based on the optimism in the outlook, demand for the product is actually up. I mean we think our signings will be up in the mid- to high single digits this year. And there's that same level of optimism in terms of people wanting to get the project started, it's just being held back by the factors that you're talking about. So those factors are there. They'll probably be there for some period of time. And we think like all things that are cyclical, they will ease over time. And then the fact that our signings are up is what gives us the confidence to believe that our starts will go back to where they were roughly in 2019 and that our NUG will go back to 6% to 7%.

對產品的需求－基於對前景的樂觀態度，對產品的需求其實是上升的。我的意思是，我們認為今年我們的簽約人數將達到中高個位數。對於想要啟動該計畫的人來說，也存在著同樣程度的樂觀情緒，只是受到你所談論的因素的阻礙。所以這些因素是存在的。他們可能會在那裡待一段時間。我們認為，就像所有周期性的事情一樣，它們會隨著時間的推移而緩解。我們的簽約量增加這一事實讓我們有信心相信我們的開局將回到 2019 年的水平，我們的 NUG 將回到 6% 到 7%。

I think that's right. The only thing I'd sort of add to that, and Kevin said earlier in his comments is, inflation is our friend and it's our owner's friend. So if you look at what we've done in the system during COVID as a result of sort of going through every granular, standard for every single brand, we've been able to drive a lot of efficiency at the hotel level.

我認為這是對的。我唯一要補充的是，凱文早些時候在他的評論中說過，通貨膨脹是我們的朋友，也是我們所有者的朋友。因此，如果你看看我們在新冠疫情期間在系統中所做的事情，透過對每個品牌的每一個細粒度、標準進行檢查，我們已經能夠在酒店層面上提高很多效率。

At the same time, obviously, labor costs have been going up. But when you put all of it into the gonkulator, so to speak, with the savings we've created with the inflationary pressures, which are driving their rate up, and obviously, expenses aren't 100% of revenues. So they've got a positive -- they've got positive leverage there.

與此同時，顯然，勞動成本一直在上漲。但是，當你把所有的錢都投入到 gonkulator 中時，可以這麼說，我們在通貨膨脹壓力下節省下來的錢，這正在推動他們的利率上升，顯然，支出並不是收入的 100%。所以他們有正面的影響力。

Even in the face of increased labor costs, we are very confident that across all of our brands on a sort of comparable basis, margins are higher. So the enthusiasm in our owner community and why, as Kevin rightly pointed out, we think signings are going to be up is, that our brands are doing great. They're driving great share and people are optimistic with recovery, but they're also looking at an equation where they're going to be able to drive higher margins on the other side.

即使面臨勞動成本增加，我們也非常有信心，在可比較的基礎上，我們所有品牌的利潤率都會更高。因此，我們業主社區的熱情以及為什麼，正如凱文正確指出的那樣，我們認為簽約將會增加，因為我們的品牌做得很好。他們正在推動巨大的市場份額，人們對復甦持樂觀態度，但他們也在考慮一個能夠在另一方面推動更高利潤的方程式。

Now we have to have the financing market sort of continue to ease, input cost, all that, which will take a little bit of time. And in the meantime, we're having great success in the conversion world. We're going to probably, as Kevin said, increase conversions this year relative to last by 600 basis points of total NUG delivery. So we feel pretty good about where we are.

現在我們必須讓融資市場繼續放鬆，投入成本等等，這需要一點時間。同時，我們在轉換領域取得了巨大的成功。正如 Kevin 所說，今年的 NUG 交付總量相對於去年而言，我們可能會增加 600 個基點。所以我們對自己所處的位置感覺很好。

Okay. If I may just follow up quickly and use your gonkulator 1 more time. The owned and leased aspect of the model looks like it really has 2 sides to it. One, which is kind of a friend in this recovery and the other that strikes me as a bit more challenging. Are there potential ways in the future that you can deal with the more challenging aspects of it and turn them into a positive in some way?

好的。我可以快速跟進並再使用一次您的 gonkulator 嗎？該模型的自有和租賃方面看起來確實有兩個方面。一個是這次復甦中的朋友，另一個讓我覺得更具挑戰性。未來是否有潛在的方法可以應對更具挑戰性的方面，並以某種方式將其轉化為積極的一面？

Well, sure. I mean, look, first of all, I'll start out with -- I implied this or I said this in my remarks that portfolio -- the performance in that portfolio is improving, that is starting to turn around. It's been concentrated in parts of the world that have been a little bit behind from a COVID recovery perspective, Central Europe and Japan, in particular.

嗯，當然。我的意思是，首先，我將首先——我在投資組合的評論中暗示了這一點或說過這一點——該投資組合的表現正在改善，正在開始好轉。從新冠疫情復甦的角度來看，它主要集中在世界上稍微落後的地區，尤其是中歐和日本。

As that portfolio recovers, it will contribute meaningfully to our growth rate, meaning the EBITDA in that portfolio is going to grow at a much higher rate over the next couple of years than the overall fee business is. And so it's going to contribute positively to our growth.

隨著該投資組合的復甦，它將對我們的成長率做出重大貢獻，這意味著該投資組合中的 EBITDA 在未來幾年內將以比整體收費業務高得多的速度成長。因此，它將對我們的成長做出積極貢獻。

So finding a positive there to your question, and we think that from an EBITDA perspective over the course of this year, it's going to turn positive, and then we actually think it will be positive -- slightly positive as an EBITDA contributor this year. And then I think what we can do is what we've been doing, right?

因此，對你的問題找到積極的一面，我們認為從今年EBITDA 的角度來看，它將會變得積極，然後我們實際上認為這將是積極的——作為今年EBITDA 的貢獻者，稍微積極一些。然後我想我們能做的就是我們一直在做的，對嗎？

I mean we have quite a large portfolio of leased assets when we inherited the company. We've chipped away at it such that it used to be 9% or 10% of the EBITDA of the business on a stabilized basis, it is going to be sub 5% of the -- even when it recovers over the next few years at a higher rate than the overall business, the fee business continues to grow. We shrink the lease portfolio over time. It's going to be less than 5% of the business over time.

我的意思是，當我們繼承公司時，我們擁有相當大的租賃資產組合。我們已經對其進行了削減，使得它曾經佔企業 EBITDA 的 9% 或 10%，在穩定的基礎上，它將低於 5%——即使它在未來幾年內恢復收費業務繼續以高於整體業務的速度成長。隨著時間的推移，我們會縮小租賃組合。隨著時間的推移，它所佔業務的比例將低於 5%。

We got out of 7 leases last year. We allowed 4 of them to expire and then because we couldn't come to terms with the landlord on renewing them or we didn't want to be there, and we converted 3 of them to management or franchise agreements, so they stayed in the system and they moved from the capital heavy part of the business to the capital-light part of the business. So we'll continue to take those opportunities over time. And that will end up being a positive as we shrink that business and grow the rest of the business over time.

去年我們終止了 7 個租約。我們允許其中 4 份協議到期，然後因為我們無法與房東就續約協議達成一致，或者我們不想在那裡，我們將其中 3 份轉換為管理或特許經營協議，所以他們留在了系統，他們從業務的重資本部分轉向業務的輕資本部分。因此，隨著時間的推移，我們將繼續抓住這些機會。隨著時間的推移，隨著我們縮小該業務並發展其餘業務，這最終將是積極的。

The next question is from Smedes Rose from Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Smedes Rose。

I wanted to just ask you, when you think about your guidance for the year, and it's great that you have the visibility to provide that. Kind of how are you thinking specifically about which is actually in China and Europe over the balance of the year. You touched on that a little bit with Europe, I guess, with your O&L comments, but maybe just a little -- some more color on how you think that could shape up?

我只想問你，當你考慮今年的指導時，很高興你能提供這樣的指導。您如何具體考慮今年剩餘時間內中國和歐洲的具體情況。我想，你在 O&L 評論中談到了歐洲的一點點，但也許只是一點點——更多關於你認為這可能會如何形成的色彩？

Yes. I think at a high level, Smedes, the way I think about Europe is, Europe is recovering quite nicely, not Eastern Europe, but the bulk of our business in Europe is driven by Western Europe. And Europe is not quite as far along as the United States, but has been motoring along. Kevin gave you a few of the stats that I think support that. So we expect, like the U.S., Europe -- Western Europe to continue to recover. Our expectation is Eastern Europe for the foreseeable future is going to be quite challenged. But again, a very, very small insignificant part of the portfolio being impacted by that.

是的。我認為，Smedes，從高水準來看，我對歐洲的看法是，歐洲正在復甦得相當好，而不是東歐，但我們在歐洲的大部分業務是由西歐推動的。歐洲雖然沒有美國走得那麼遠，但一直在快速前進。凱文給了你一些我認為支持這一點的統計數據。因此，我們預計，與美國、歐洲——西歐一樣，將繼續復甦。我們的預期是，在可預見的未來，東歐將面臨相當大的挑戰。但同樣，投資組合中非常非常小的、微不足道的部分受到了影響。

And China, obviously, a more complex situation. We have a view. We have forecast, which is why we can build it in and give guidance. I think our expectation is in the second half of the year, as China goes through a process of locking down some of the major cities and then reopening them, that China is going to reopen for China at a minimum. Not necessarily China opening for international arrivals. But as we saw in the early stages of the pandemic when China got way ahead of the rest of the world, when China opens for China in China business, our business does quite well and can recover very, very rapidly.

而中國，顯然情況更為複雜。我們有一個觀點。我們有預測，這就是為什麼我們可以將其納入其中並提供指導。我認為我們的預期是在今年下半年，當中國經歷封鎖一些主要城市然後重新開放的過程時，中國至少會為中國重新開放。中國不一定對國際遊客開放。但正如我們在疫情初期看到的那樣，當中國遠遠領先於世界其他地區時，當中國在中國向中國開放業務時，我們的業務做得很好，可以非常非常快地恢復。

So our expectation is second half of the year, you will see China start to reopen really with more benefit in the fourth quarter and into next year than in the third quarter.

因此，我們的預期是今年下半年，您將看到中國開始真正重新開放，並在第四季和明年獲得比第三季更多的收益。

The next question is from Robin Farley from UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的羅賓法利 (Robin Farley)。

Just some quick ones. One is can you talk a little bit about the booking window? I feel like last fall, it was down to sort of less than a week, and maybe pre-pandemic had been more like 30 days. Just kind of where are we now with that visibility?

只是一些快速的。一是您能談談預訂窗口嗎？我覺得去年秋天，時間縮短到了不到一周，也許大流行前大約 30 天。那麼我們現在處於什麼樣的可見度呢？

Booking windows are extending as you might guess. I think within 7 days, it's now -- it had gotten to be a vast majority at the worst of COVID was booked within 7 days. I think we're approaching in April 50-50, plus or minus, like 50% of the business within 7 days, 50% longer. So huge, huge improvement from where we were.

正如您可能猜到的那樣，預訂窗口正在延長。我認為在 7 天內，現在——在新冠疫情最嚴重的情況下，絕大多數都是在 7 天內預訂的。我認為我們將在 4 月接近 50-50（上下），例如 7 天內完成 50% 的業務，50% 的時間更長。與我們所處的位置相比，有瞭如此巨大的進步。

Great. And then on the OTA business, the distribution mix. You mentioned it was down, which makes sense as business transient comes back. Was that 15% -- you mentioned 85% direct, which I assume includes I guess...

偉大的。然後是 OTA 業務、分銷組合。您提到它已經關閉，隨著業務瞬態的恢復，這是有道理的。那是 15%嗎——你提到了 85% 直接，我想這包括我猜...

No, 75% direct. We didn't give an OTA percentage, we typically wouldn't. But we're in sort of the pre-pandemic, we were in the very low teens, which is what we sort of believe the efficient frontier is for the business to be able to drive the best results for our ownership community. And I would say in the quarter, we're basically there, plus or minus.

不，75% 直接。我們沒有給出 OTA 百分比，通常不會。但我們正處於大流行前，我們還處於非常低的青少年時期，這就是我們認為企業能夠為我們的所有權社區帶來最佳結果的有效邊界。我想說的是，在本季度，我們基本上就在那裡，無論是加還是減。

Okay. Great. And then I guess the last thing on group. And you kind of -- you've addressed a lot of it in your opening remarks. I think you said you expected that by the end of the year to be at 90% of '19 levels. Fair to say that you expect '23 to be kind of back at 2019 levels?

好的。偉大的。然後我猜想小組裡的最後一件事。你在開場白中已經談到了很多這個問題。我想你說過你預計到今年年底將達到 19 年水準的 90%。公平地說，您預計“23”會回到 2019 年的水平嗎？

And then also, I don't know if you gave a pacing for like what percent of '23 room nights are booked compared to like what was booked at this time, pre-pandemic. Just to think about it.

另外，我不知道您是否給出了與大流行前此時預訂的情況相比，“23 間客房預訂量的百分比”的進度。只是想想而已。

We didn't. I think the answer to the first question is, yes. I do think '23 will be back at -- for group, will be back at '19 levels. We did not give a stat. I think the stat from the best of my memory is about 15% down versus '19 at the moment for '23. But as I articulated in the prepared comments, our sales folks can hardly keep up with all the leads that are coming in for the second half of this year and particularly into next year.

我們沒有。我認為第一個問題的答案是肯定的。我確實認為'23'將會回到--對於團體來說，將會回到'19'的水平。我們沒有給出統計數據。我認為根據我的記憶，23 年的統計數據比 19 年下降了 15% 左右。但正如我在準備好的評論中所闡述的那樣，我們的銷售人員幾乎無法跟上今年下半年，尤其是明年出現的所有潛在客戶。

And so I think just given the trajectory of how this recovery has occurred and what we've seen sort of in the year for the year business. I wouldn't read a whole lot into being 15% down for next year.

因此，我認為只要考慮到這種復甦是如何發生的軌跡以及我們在今年業務中所看到的情況。我不認為明年會下跌 15%。

We have plenty of time to book that. And importantly, the rates are basically low double digits at the moment. The booked business is low double digit higher than '19. And so part of what we're obviously trying to do is maximize the outcome, rate flows really nicely for our ownership community. So we're not -- we really don't want to rush too much in this kind of inflationary environment, because we know the business is going to be there, and we want to put it on the books at the highest rates possible.

我們有足夠的時間來預訂。重要的是，目前利率基本上處於較低的兩位數。預訂業務比 19 年低兩位數。因此，我們顯然正在努力做的一部分是最大化結果，利率流動對我們的所有權社區來說非常好。因此，我們真的不想在這種通膨環境下操之過急，因為我們知道業務將會存在，我們希望以盡可能高的利率將其記入帳簿。

And so we're sort of taking our time and metering it out. I suspect, as I said, next year, we will be at volumes similar to 2019 when we're done with 2023 and at rates much higher than 2019.

所以我們要慢慢來並計量它。正如我所說，我懷疑明年 2023 年結束後，我們的銷售量將與 2019 年相似，且成長率將遠高於 2019 年。

The next question is from Patrick Scholes from Truist Securities.

下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Patrick Scholes。

For your net unit growth guidance of approximately 5%, how do those -- how do those percentages break down by global region? Or basically, what are those percentages by growth rates by different regions?

對於約 5% 的淨單位成長指導，這些百分比如何按全球地區細分？或者基本上，不同地區的成長率百分比是多少？

Yes. It should be -- Patrick, it should be pretty similar to -- the rooms under construction are about 80% international. I don't have the sub-breakdown in front of me right now for where it breaks out. But it ought to deliver about a plus or minus what the rooms under construction are 20% in the U.S., about 80% outside the U.S.

是的。應該是——派崔克，應該非常相似——正在建造的房間大約80%是國際化的。我現在還沒有看到它在哪裡爆發的子故障。但它應該能帶來約 20% 的在建房間在美國，約 80% 的在美國以外的房間的正負值。

Okay. Do you happen to have handy what the expectation is for the China growth rate?

好的。您是否知道對中國成長率的預期是多少？

Yes. Well, for openings, I think I said in 1 of my earlier answers, we think that openings -- rooms opened in China this year are going to be 20% up year-over-year.

是的。嗯，對於空缺職位，我想我在之前的一個回答中說過，我們認為今年在中國開設的房間數量將同比增長 20%。

And the next question is from Bill Crow from Raymond James.

下一個問題來自雷蒙德·詹姆斯的比爾·克勞。

Chris, I continue to be -- I continue to be really fascinated by this interplay between the brands and the owners at a time when occupancy and rates are ramping up, but labor continues to be kind of short. And I'm just wondering what you're seeing with guest satisfaction scores and if you have any concerns about that as we head into the busy summer months?

克里斯，我仍然對品牌和業主之間的互動著迷，因為入住率和房價都在上升，但勞動力仍然短缺。我只是想知道您對客人滿意度得分的看法以及在我們進入繁忙的夏季月份時您是否對此有任何擔憂？

We -- yes, I mean I'd say first on the labor front, there are still significant issues that we're seeing, both in what we manage and as we talk to our franchise community, what they're seeing. Over the last 6 months, we've seen a very significant increase in labor coming back into the labor force and our ability to get folks in the hotels, which obviously are needed, given the demand profile and the increases in demand across all segments, as I already described.

我們——是的，我的意思是，我首先要說的是，在勞工方面，我們仍然看到了一些重大問題，無論是在我們的管理方面，還是在我們與我們的特許經營社區交談時，他們所看到的。在過去的 6 個月裡，我們看到勞動力重返勞動力市場的人數顯著增加，而且我們有能力讓人們入住酒店，考慮到需求概況和所有細分市場的需求增長，這顯然是需要的，正如我已經描述的。

So we're not all the way anywhere near where we want to be, but the issues are not -- they're not as extreme as they had been at other points in the pandemic, including recently.

因此，我們還沒有完全接近我們想要的目標，但問題並非如此——它們並不像大流行的其他時期（包括最近）那麼極端。

In terms of customer satisfaction, I think, listen, I think all service industries have suffered, and we're right there along with the rest of them. We've been intensely monitoring and we have all sorts of ways to do that, both through social, but our own tracking systems that we call SALT satisfaction and loyalty tracking. And what I've seen is those numbers that had sort of bottomed out in the middle of the pandemic have started to come back and go the other way, as we've been able to get labor and bring some of the services back.

在客戶滿意度方面，我認為，聽著，我認為所有服務業都受到了影響，而我們和其他行業一樣。我們一直在密切監控，我們有各種各樣的方法來做到這一點，既透過社群媒體，也透過我們自己的追蹤系統，我們稱之為 SALT 滿意度和忠誠度追蹤。我所看到的是，那些在大流行期間觸底的數字已經開始回升並走向相反的方向，因為我們已經能夠獲得勞動力並恢復一些服務。

Our social scores, I think the last I saw lead the industry and have been moving up in a positive way. So we have -- we're not satisfied with what we're doing right now. I think the team sitting at this table would say, I've been pounding the table a lot. We like what we're doing. We're on a good trajectory. We need to get more labor back in. We need to restore more services, get food and beverage back on track and other services. And we're obviously sensitive -- very sensitive as you sort of implied in your question to the cost structure for our owner community. But the reality is the demand is there, and we're charging for it. So we have to deliver the experience or ultimately we're going to impair our ability to continue to drive rate, if we don't deliver the basic experience.

我認為我們最後一次看到的社交分數領先於行業，並且一直以積極的方式上升。所以我們對現在所做的事情並不滿意。我想坐在這張桌子旁的團隊會說，我已經常常敲桌子了。我們喜歡我們正在做的事情。我們正處於良好的軌道上。我們需要恢復更多的服務，讓食物和飲料以及其他服務恢復正常。我們顯然很敏感——非常敏感，正如您在問題中暗示的那樣，我們業主社區的成本結構。但現實是需求是存在的，而我們正在為此收費。因此，我們必須提供體驗，否則，如果我們不提供基本體驗，最終我們將削弱我們繼續提高成長率的能力。

So I'm confident we will, our owner community broadly. You talk to a lot of them, but I talk to tons of them. They're broadly understanding of it. They're supportive. They're seeing the pricing pressure and they realize that we have to work together to get there. We have been -- as I mentioned in my earlier response, we have been super crazy focused on making sure that when we get to the other side of this, this is a better setup for our owner community than what we had before the pandemic. And we continue to work really hard on that, and we're confident, on a comparable basis, that they will be in a better place and that inflation is their friend, it's our friend and the cost savings and initiatives that we -- that we pursued and implemented during COVID are going to pay dividends for a long time to come.

因此，我相信我們廣大的業主社群會這麼做。你和他們中的許多人交談，但我和他們中的許多人交談。他們對此有廣泛的理解。他們很支持。他們看到了定價壓力，並意識到我們必須共同努力才能實現這一目標。正如我在之前的回覆中提到的，我們一直非常瘋狂地專注於確保當我們到達這一點的另一邊時，這對我們的業主社區來說是一個比大流行之前更好的設置。我們將繼續在這方面努力工作，並且我們有信心，在可比較的基礎上，他們將處於更好的境地，通貨膨脹是他們的朋友，也是我們的朋友，也是我們的成本節約和舉措——我們在新冠疫情期間所追求和實施的目標將在未來很長一段時間內獲得回報。

The next question is from Chad Beynon from Macquarie.

下一個問題來自麥格理的查德貝農 (Chad Beynon)。

We've heard a lot about airline price increases recently in, I guess, upcoming in the next couple of months. Seems like the operators are pushing through the fuel increases to the consumer. And I know, in your prepared remarks, you noted that March and spring break were strong for the leisure customer, so it doesn't sound like there's been any pushback at this point. But can you talk about, I guess, what you've seen during different cycles as gas prices have remained elevated and if you think that could impact kind of the mindset of the leisure customer for the rest of '22?

最近，我們聽說了很多關於航空公司漲價的消息，我想，未來幾個月即將到來。營運商似乎正在向消費者推動燃油上漲。我知道，在您準備好的演講中，您指出三月和春假對休閒客戶來說很強勁，所以目前聽起來沒有任何阻力。但我想，您能否談談您在不同周期中看到的情況，因為汽油價格一直居高不下，以及您是否認為這可能會影響 22 年剩餘時間休閒客戶的心態？

Yes. I've been doing this a long time, and we've been studying this a long time, and in fact, got our team to update, R-squared on this, just so we could be technically accurate, I like numbers. And the reality is if you go back over long periods of history, there is not a very high R square. There is not a very high correlation. In fact, there's a very low correlation between what's going on with fuel prices and demand in our business. You can go back to like the '08, '09, when oil hit 150-plus a barrel, and we went, looked at all those periods. And there's not a very high correlation.

是的。我已經這樣做很長時間了，我們已經研究了很長時間，事實上，讓我們的團隊對此進行更新，R 平方，這樣我們就可以在技術上準確，我喜歡數字。現實情況是，如果你回顧很長一段歷史，你會發現並不存在很高的 R 方。相關性不是很高。事實上，燃料價格的變化與我們業務的需求之間的相關性非常低。你可以回顧一下 08 年、09 年，當時油價達到每桶 150 多美元，我們回顧了所有這些時期。而且相關性不是很高。

I think it has a lot to do with the consumer psychology, which at the moment, there are certainly lots of fears and uncertainty about where the world goes. But at the moment, as I said, the consumer has an abundant amount of savings as do businesses and a burning desire to sort of get out there and do business and/or experience the world having been locked up a lot more than they would have liked to. So we're not really seeing any of it. Now there's also a phenomenon that is we'll shift around, but if you looked at our business prepandemic, sort of roughly 2/3 of the business, 60% to 2/3 were fly to and the rest were drive to.

我認為這與消費者心理有很大關係，目前，人們對世界走向存在著許多恐懼和不確定性。但目前，正如我所說，消費者和企業一樣有大量的儲蓄，並且迫切希望走出去做生意和/或體驗比他們本來應該被鎖得多的世界喜歡。所以我們並沒有真正看到其中的任何一個。現在還有一個現象，我們會改變方向，但如果你看看我們在疫情爆發前的業務，大約有 2/3 的業務，60% 到 2/3 是乘飛機前往，其餘的是開車前往。

That's flipped around during the pandemic. And it's still disproportionately, the majority right now even with where we are in recovery, are people driving. So part of this is there's -- now gas prices are going up, too, but maybe not proportionately as much as the airline ticket is. So there is a little bit of a substitution effect that I suspect is going on with people deciding they'll drive a little further, right? They kind of got used to COVID like, hey, it might have been a 2- or 3-hour sort of limit, before and now it's a 5-, 6-, 7-hour limit for what they're willing to endure to drive.

疫情期間情況發生了逆轉。而且即使我們處於復甦階段，目前大多數人還是在開車。部分原因是現在汽油價格也在上漲，但漲幅可能沒有機票上漲的比例大。因此，我懷疑人們決定開得更遠一點，這會產生一點替代效應，對嗎？他們有點習慣了新冠病毒，嘿，這可能是 2 或 3 小時的限制，以前是 5、6、7 小時的限制，他們願意忍受駕駛。

And so it's a long-winded way of saying, we have not seen resistance and we do not, in looking at very detailed analysis of R-squares, we do not historically see a lot of high correlation.

因此，這是一種冗長的說法，我們沒有看到阻力，而且在對 R 方進行非常詳細的分析時，我們在歷史上沒有看到很多高相關性。

The next question comes from Richard Clarke from Bernstein.

下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的理查德·克拉克。

Just 1 thing I noticed is the number of managed rooms has actually come down quarter-on-quarter by over 2,000, which is the biggest drop I can find. And some quite big drops by brand, DoubleTree, Waldorf, Astoria. Is this a strategy? Are you moving away from franchise towards managed towards more franchise? And if that's the case, maybe why are you leaning away from the incentive fees in the recovery? Or is this more an owner-led shift?

我注意到的一件事是，託管房間的數量實際上比上一季減少了 2,000 多間，這是我能發現的最大降幅。還有一些相當大的品牌下降，例如逸林（DoubleTree）、華爾道夫（Waldorf）、阿斯托利亞（Astoria）。這是一個策略嗎？您是否正在從特許經營轉向管理型特許經營？如果是這樣的話，也許你為什麼在復甦中放棄激勵費呢？或者這更像是所有者主導的轉變？

Yes. Look, Richard, it's a good question. I don't have quarter-over-quarter shift in front of me. You're probably right, if you're looking at it, that it's a relatively big shift. Some of that is things converting to franchise, right? They're staying in the system. They're not necessarily coming out. And it's not strategic. We still -- our rooms under construction, like I said earlier, 80% outside the U.S., that's 50-50 managed versus franchise outside the U.S.

是的。聽著，理查德，這是個好問題。我面前沒有季度與季度之間的輪班。如果你仔細觀察的話，你可能是對的，這是一個相對較大的轉變。其中一些是轉化為特許經營權的東西，對吧？他們留在體制內。他們不一定會出來。而且這不是戰略性的。我們仍在建設中，正如我之前所說，80% 位於美國境外，管理與特許經營的比例為 50-50。

So the reality is we go where the demand is in the developed world, a little bit more demand at the lower end right now for new construction, right, and new deliveries. And so we fish where the fish are, right? And so the market takes us there. There's more customer demand and more owner demand a little bit, and again, in the developed world, towards franchising. And in the developing world, it's about 50-50.

因此，現實情況是，我們去已開發國家有需求的地方，現在低端市場對新建築、新交付的需求稍微多一點。所以我們就在有魚的地方釣魚，對嗎？所以市場把我們帶到了那裡。有更多的客戶需求和更多的業主需求，在已開發國家，特許經營也是如此。在發展中國家，這個數字約為 50-50。

And just you just mentioned there that you've seen some shift from managed to franchise. Why does that process take place?

您剛才提到，您已經看到了從託管到特許經營的一些轉變。為什麼會發生這個過程？

Where does it take place?

它發生在哪裡？

No, why does it take place?

不，為什麼會發生？

Owner demand -- I mean customer demand for the product at the lower end and owner demand for franchising. So it's...

業主需求－我指的是客戶對低端產品的需求和業主對特許經營的需求。所以就是...

And if you look at the regions of the world, I mean, the U.S. has always been a predominantly sort of franchise-oriented environment. If you look at our makeup here, it's a majority -- vast majority of it's franchised. 10 years ago, there was no franchising going on in Europe. Today, they is. So we have a much more sort of blended approach. It's like 50-50. If you went to Asia Pacific, 5 years ago, 7 years ago, it was 0 franchise. Now franchising is, particularly in China, is growing, and it's an opportunity for us, particularly with mid-market brands, to be able to create a network effect much, much faster.

如果你看看世界各地，我的意思是，美國一直是一個主要以特許經營為導向的環境。如果你看看我們這裡的化妝品，你會發現其中大部分都是特許經營的。 10年前，歐洲還沒有特許經營。今天，他們是。所以我們有一個更混合的方法。好像是50-50。如果你去亞太地區，5年前、7年前，那是0特許經營權。現在特許經營，特別是在中國，正在成長，這對我們來說是一個機會，特別是對於中端市場品牌來說，能夠更快地創造網路效應。

And we feel super confident in our ability to manage a franchise system. I don't think there's anybody better in terms of delivering great product and great service to customers. So it's driven a lot by sort of the owner desires and sort of the evolution of the business around the world as different parts of the world mature.

我們對自己管理特許經營系統的能力充滿信心。我認為在向客戶提供優質產品和優質服務方面沒有比這更好的了。因此，它在很大程度上是由所有者的願望以及隨著世界不同地區的成熟而在世界各地的業務發展所驅動的。

The next question is from Vince Ciepiel with Cleveland Research.

下一個問題來自克里夫蘭研究中心的文斯‧西皮爾 (Vince Ciepiel)。

I had a question on cross-border. Could you remind us like how much international arrivals is as a percentage of your U.S. room nights? I think it's pretty small, but kind of how that business is performing today versus pre-COVID if you've seen recent progress there? And then kind of the other way around, when you look at, say, your European business and North American guests heading there for this summer, can you describe kind of what you've seen with booking behavior in the last few months?

我有一個關於跨境的問題。您能否提醒我們，國際抵達人數佔您在美國的間夜數的比例？我認為這個規模相當小，但如果您看到了該業務最近的進展，那麼與新冠疫情爆發前相比，該業務今天的表現如何？然後反過來說，當您觀察今年夏天前往那裡的歐洲企業和北美客人時，您能描述一下您在過去幾個月中看到的預訂行為嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Go ahead.

前進。

Yes, sure, on a normalized basis and you pre-covid the U.S. is about 95:5, right? About 95% of the customers comes from inside the U.S. 5% outside. Now in big cities like New York, San Francisco, L.A., that could be up to 20% for cross-border. That obviously plummeted during COVID, right, to near 0 and now is actually approaching pretty close to normalized mix, both in the U.S. and Europe. Europe is more about 2/3, 1/3 within the region and outside of the region. And again, that's actually back to approaching levels where it was pre-COVID as the world is opening up.

是的，當然，在標準化的基礎上，你預期美國的比例約為 95:5，對嗎？約 95% 的客戶來自美國境內，5% 來自境外。現在，在紐約、舊金山、洛杉磯等大城市，跨境費用可能高達 20%。在新冠疫情期間，這個數字顯然急劇下降，右圖，跌至接近 0，現在無論是在美國還是歐洲，實際上已經非常接近正常化的比例。歐洲較多的2/3，區內1/3，區外1/3。再說一次，隨著世界的開放，這實際上又回到了新冠疫情之前的水平。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Chris Nassetta for any additional or closing remarks.

女士們先生們，我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉交克里斯·納塞塔（Chris Nassetta）發表任何補充或結束語。

Thank you, Chad, and thank you all for joining us today. I think you could probably hear the enthusiasm in our voice. It's been quite a couple of years, but I do believe that the decisions we made, the actions we took during the pandemic have put Hilton in the best position it's ever been in from the standpoint of driving performance, margins, driving free cash flow and returning capital to shareholders in the years to come. We're super excited about what we think is going to play out for the rest of the year, and we'll look forward after the second quarter to updating you on that progress. Thanks again for the time today.

謝謝查德，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。我想你可能能聽出我們聲音中的熱情。已經過去好幾年了，但我確實相信，從推動業績、利潤、推動自由現金流和在未來幾年向股東返還資本。我們對今年剩餘時間的情況感到非常興奮，我們將期待在第二季之後向您通報最新進展。再次感謝您今天抽出時間。

And thank you, sir. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

謝謝您，先生。會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。