希爾頓酒店 (HLT) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Hilton fourth-quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

早安，歡迎參加希爾頓 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) Please note that this event is being recorded.

（操作員指示）請注意，該事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Jill Chapman, Senior Vice President, Head of Development Operations and Investor Relations.

現在，我想將會議交給高級副總裁、開發營運和投資者關係主管吉爾·查普曼 (Jill Chapman)。

Please begin.

請開始。

Thank you, Betsy.

謝謝你，貝琪。

Welcome to Hilton's fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings call.

歡迎參加希爾頓 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。

Before we begin, we would like to remind you that our discussions this morning will include forward-looking statements.

在我們開始之前，我們想提醒您，我們今天上午的討論將包括前瞻性陳述。

Actual results could differ materially from those indicated in the forward-looking statements, and forward-looking statements made today speak only to our expectations as of today.

實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中所示的結果有重大差異，而今天所做的前瞻性陳述僅代表我們今天的預期。

We undertake no obligation to update or revise these statements.

我們不承擔更新或修改這些聲明的義務。

For a discussion of some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ, please see the Risk Factors section of our most recently filed Form 10-K.

有關可能導致實際結果不同的某些因素的討論，請參閱我們最近提交的 10-K 表中的風險因素部分。

In addition, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures on this call.

此外，我們將在本次電話會議上參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標。

You can find reconciliations of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures discussed in today's call in our earnings press release and on our website at ir.hilton.com.

您可以在我們的收益新聞稿中以及我們的網站 ir.hilton.com 上找到今天電話會議中討論的非 GAAP 與 GAAP 財務指標的對帳表。

This morning, Chris Nassetta, our President and Chief Executive Officer, will provide an overview of the current operating environment and the company's outlook.

今天上午，我們的總裁兼執行長 Chris Nassetta 將概述當前的營運環境和公司前景。

Kevin Jacobs, our Chief Financial Officer and President, Global Development, will then review our fourth quarter and full year results and discuss our expectations for the year.

我們的財務長兼全球發展總裁凱文雅各布斯 (Kevin Jacobs) 將回顧我們第四季度和全年的業績並討論我們對今年的期望。

Following their remarks, we'll be happy to take your questions.

在他們發言之後，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

And with that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Chris.

現在，我很高興將電話轉給克里斯。

Thank you, Jill.

謝謝你，吉爾。

Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us today.

大家早安，感謝大家今天的參與。

We're happy to report a great end to another strong year marked by record unit growth and several important milestones.

我們很高興地宣布，我們又迎來了強勁的一年，這一年我們取得了創紀錄的銷售成長和幾個重要的里程碑。

We added new brands and strategic partnerships to meet guest needs.

我們增加了新品牌和策略合作夥伴關係以滿足客人的需求。

We opened more rooms than in any other year in our history, and we signed a record number of new rooms to our development pipeline all of which further strengthened our network and positioned Hilton for continued growth in 2025 and beyond.

我們新開客房的數量超過了我們歷史上任何一年，並且我們簽署了創紀錄數量的新客房開發協議，所有這些都進一步加強了我們的網絡，並為希爾頓在 2025 年及以後的持續增長做好了準備。

Thanks to our incredible team members and owners, we also welcomed more than 224 million guests to our properties more than any year in our history.

感謝我們出色的團隊成員和業主，我們酒店接待的客人數量超過 2.24 億人次，比歷史上任何一年都要多。

For the full year, System-wide RevPAR increased 2.7% compared to 2023 with growth across all segments and all major regions.

全年全系統 RevPAR 與 2023 年相比成長了 2.7%，所有部門和所有主要地區均成長。

Solid top line performance, coupled with strong net unit growth drove record adjusted EBITDA of more than $3.4 billion, up 11% year over year demonstrating the strength of our fee-based business model and the power of our growth algorithm.

穩健的營收表現加上強勁的淨單位成長推動調整後息稅折舊攤銷前利潤達到創紀錄的 34 億美元以上，年增 11%，證明了我們收費業務模式的實力和成長演算法的威力。

Significant free cash flow generation enabled us to return $3 billion to shareholders.

大量自由現金流的產生使我們能夠向股東返還 30 億美元。

Turning to results for the quarter.

談到本季的業績。

System-wide RevPAR increased 3.5% year over year, above the high end of our guidance range, driven by better-than-expected trends in leisure and continued growth in Business Transient and Group.

受休閒業務趨勢優於預期以及商務臨時業務和團體業務持續成長的推動，全系統 RevPAR 較去年同期成長 3.5%，高於我們預期範圍的高點。

Leisure Transient RevPAR increased 4%, driven by solid growth in both occupancy and rate, with particularly strong trends throughout December.

休閒臨時客房平均可售收入 (RevPAR) 成長 4%，這得益於入住率和房價的穩健成長，尤其是 12 月的強勁成長趨勢。

In the quarter, leisure occupancy remained 5 points higher than pre-pandemic levels.

本季度，休閒入住率仍比疫情前的水平高出 5 個百分點。

Business Transient RevPAR increased more than 3% led by continued recovery in large corporates with big tech and big banks meaningfully outperforming.

受大型企業持續復甦的帶動，商務瞬時 RevPAR 成長超過 3%，其中大型科技公司和大型銀行的表現顯著優於其他企業。

Group RevPAR rose 3% year over year as demand for company meetings and social events remain strong.

由於公司會議和社交活動的需求依然強勁，集團 RevPAR 較去年同期成長 3%。

Additionally, booking windows continued to lengthen and strong demand in conventions and company meetings drove higher rates for future periods.

此外，預訂窗口不斷延長，會議和公司會議的強勁需求推動了未來期間的費率上漲。

As we look to the year ahead, we feel incrementally a bit better than we did a quarter ago and expect system-wide top line growth of 2% to 3% for 2025.

展望未來一年，我們的感覺比一個季度前略有好轉，預計 2025 年全系統營收成長率將達到 2% 至 3%。

We expect relatively steady growth across the Americas.

我們預計整個美洲地區將實現相對穩定的成長。

Modest deceleration in EMEA due to tough comparisons following a robust year last year and growth across Asia Pacific, given improvements in China and continued strength throughout the rest of the region.

歐洲、中東和非洲地區成長略有放緩，原因是與去年強勁成長和亞太地區成長（鑑於中國經濟改善和該地區其他地區持續走強）相比，今年歐洲、中東和非洲地區成長略有放緩。

We also expect positive RevPAR growth across all major segments with group outperforming driven by continued strength in company meetings and convention business.

我們也預期所有主要部門的 RevPAR 都將實現正成長，其中集團表現優異，得益於公司會議和會展業務的持續強勁。

We assume very modest RevPAR growth in leisure transient given forecast for steady levels of consumer spending and challenging comparisons.

鑑於預測消費者支出水準穩定且對比具有挑戰性，我們假設休閒短途旅遊的 RevPAR 成長將非常溫和。

We expect continued recovery in Business Transient driven by further momentum in large corporates, coupled with steady demand across small- and medium-sized businesses.

我們預計，在大型企業的進一步發展勢頭和中小企業的穩定需求的推動下，商業瞬態將繼續復甦。

Turning to development.

轉向發展。

We opened 171 hotels in the fourth quarter, totaling nearly 23,000 rooms as our strategic and diversified approach to development continued to drive brand expansion into new markets around the world.

我們在第四季度開設了 171 家酒店，總計近 23,000 間客房，我們策略性和多元化的發展方式繼續推動品牌向全球新市場擴張。

During the quarter, we opened our first Tapestry hotels in Paraguay, Bonaire and Australia, helping the conversion-friendly lifestyle brand to surpass 150 hotels in 20 countries and territories worldwide.

本季度，我們在巴拉圭、博內爾島和澳洲開設了第一家 Tapestry 酒店，幫助這個轉換友好的生活方式品牌在全球 20 個國家和地區的酒店數量超過 150 家。

We also debuted our Curio brand in Romania and opened our first Hampton in Africa, True in Colombia, Hilton Garden Inn in Greece and Spark in Austria.

我們還在羅馬尼亞推出了 Curio 品牌，並在非洲開設了第一家 Hampton 酒店，在哥倫比亞開設了第一家 True 酒店，在希臘開設了希爾頓花園酒店，在奧地利開設了 Spark 酒店。

In Asia Pacific we celebrated the opening of our 1,000th hotel ahead of schedule and representing growth of more than 30% versus last year.

在亞太地區，我們提前慶祝了第 1,000 家酒店的開業，與去年相比增長了 30% 以上。

For the full year, we added a record 973 hotels, representing nearly 100,000 rooms and the single biggest increase in rooms in Hilton's more than 100-year history driving net unit growth of 7.3%.

全年我們新增了 973 家飯店，新增客房數近 10 萬間，創下希爾頓一百多年歷史上客房數的最大增幅，推動淨單位增長率達到 7.3%。

Conversions accounted for roughly 45% of room openings in the year, driven by the addition of SLH properties and continued momentum from Spark, DoubleTree and our Conversion-friendly Lifestyle brands.

由於 SLH 酒店的加入，以及 Spark、DoubleTree 和我們易於轉換的生活方式品牌的持續發展，轉換後的客房數量約佔當年開業客房數量的 45%。

Overall, Luxury Lifestyle Hotels accounted for roughly half of our system-wide openings in the year, bringing those -- bringing those portfolios to more than 900 hotels across the world.

總體而言，奢華生活風格酒店約占我們全年全系統開業酒店的一半，使我們的酒店組合遍布全球超過 900 家。

Additionally, our Luxury and Lifestyle pipeline mix is nearly 2 times our existing supply supporting continued growth in these important segments.

此外，我們的奢侈品和生活風格產品組合幾乎是現有供應量的兩倍，支持了這些重要領域的持續成長。

Even with record openings, our system-wide pipeline grew 8% year over year to total approximately 500,000 rooms at year-end.

即使開幕數量創下紀錄，我們全系統的飯店客房數量仍比去年同期增加 8%，年底總數達到約 50 萬間。

We signed 154,000 rooms in the year, up 18% and representing our biggest year of signings to date.

我們今年簽約了 154,000 間客房，成長了 18%，是迄今為止簽約客房最多的一年。

We also ended the year with several notable signings, including the Waldorf Astoria, Bahrain; Waldorf Astoria, Almedina in Saudi Arabia; Conrad and Los Cabos and our first motto in China and agreements to debut LXR Curio in Hampton in Morocco.

我們也在年底簽訂了幾個引人注目的簽約項目，包括巴林華爾道夫酒店；沙烏地阿拉伯阿爾梅迪納華爾道夫酒店；康拉德和洛斯卡沃斯以及我們在中國的第一個座右銘以及在摩洛哥漢普頓首次推出 LXR Curio 的協議。

Construction starts for the year remained strong, the highest in our history, increasing 10% year over year, excluding acquisitions and partnerships with meaningful growth across all regions.

今年建築開工保持強勁，創歷史新高，年增 10%，不包括收購和合作，所有地區均實現了有意義的成長。

We finished the year with nearly 0.25 million rooms under construction, which is more than any other hotel company.

截至今年年底，我們在建客房總數接近 25 萬間，這個數字比其他任何飯店公司都要多。

This represents more than 20% of industry share of rooms under construction and nearly 4 times our existing share of supply.

這佔業界在建客房份額的 20% 以上，幾乎是我們現有供應份額的 4 倍。

With nearly half of our pipeline under construction and continued growth in version opportunities, we feel confident in our ability to deliver strong net unit growth of 6% to 7% in 2025.

由於我們近一半的產品線正在建設中，並且版本機會持續增長，我們有信心在 2025 年實現 6% 至 7% 的強勁淨單位增長。

Defined by our continued focus on geographic and chain scale diversity, we have exciting development opportunities ahead.

由於我們持續關注地域和連鎖規模的多樣性，我們未來將擁有令人興奮的發展機會。

LiveSmart Studios is slated to open its first location this summer.

LiveSmart Studios 預計今年夏天開設第一家分店。

Following the recent opening of Spark's 100th hotel, the brand has several international market debuts, including India, and the Kala region scheduled for this year.

繼最近 Spark 的第 100 家酒店開業後，該品牌今年還將在包括印度和卡拉地區在內的多個國際市場首次亮相。

We expect our newly announced strategic licensing agreement with Olive by Embassy to accelerate Spark's expansion in India representing an exciting opportunity to tap into the country's growing middle class.

我們期待與 Olive by Embassy 新近宣布的戰略許可協議能夠加速 Spark 在印度的擴張，這對其來說是一個吸引印度日益壯大的中產階級的絕佳機會。

We also expect continued momentum in Luxury with several noteworthy openings in 2025 including the iconic Waldorf Astoria in New York, following an extensive and thoughtfully designed renovation, the 375 room hotel will usher in a new era of luxury for New York City.

我們也預計奢華酒店業將繼續保持發展勢頭，2025 年將有幾家值得關注的酒店開業，其中包括紐約標誌性的華爾道夫酒店，經過廣泛而精心設計的翻新後，這家擁有 375 間客房的酒店將為紐約市開創奢華的新時代。

This year, we will also welcome Waldorf Astoria properties in Costa Rica, Shanghai, Osaka and Morocco in addition to Conrad Hotels in Athens and Hamburg.

今年，除了雅典和漢堡的康萊德酒店外，我們還將迎來哥斯達黎加、上海、大阪和摩洛哥的華爾道夫酒店。

Signia celebrated an important milestone just last week with the opening of the brand's first hotel outside the US, located in Oman, Jordan, the property offers another sought after location for business and leisure travelers.

上週，Signia 慶祝了一個重要的里程碑，在約旦阿曼開設了該品牌在美國以外的第一家酒店，為商務和休閒旅客提供了另一個備受追捧的目的地。

Demonstrating our continued commitment to meeting the evolving preferences of our guests.

表明我們始終致力於滿足客人不斷變化的喜好。

We recently announced several new wellness renovations.

我們最近宣布了幾項新的健康改造項目。

In January, we expanded our partnership with Peloton to provide guests with complementary access to a collection of Peloton's on-demand fitness content on our in-room TVs.

今年 1 月，我們擴大了與 Peloton 的合作夥伴關係，為客人提供在客房內電視上免費觀看 Peloton 的一系列點播健身內容的權限。

We also recently partnered with Calm, a leading wellness company to offer guests access to guided meditation sleep stories, coming soundscape and mindfulness exercises directly from their in-room TVs.

我們最近也與領先的健康公司 Calm 合作，讓客人直接透過客房內的電視觀看引導式冥想睡眠故事、播放背景音景和正念練習。

Thanks to incredible team members around the world, we continue to be recognized for our culture.

感謝世界各地優秀的團隊成員，我們的文化不斷得到認可。

During the fourth quarter, we celebrated our 8th consecutive year as the Top Hospitality Company on the World's Best Workplace List by Great Place to Work.

第四季度，我們連續第八年被卓越職場研究所評為全球最佳職場榜單上的頂級酒店公司。

Our brands also continue to receive recognition, most recently by Entrepreneur Magazine's Franchise 500 for the 16th consecutive year.

我們的品牌也不斷獲得認可，最近連續第 16 年被《企業家》雜誌評選為特許經營 500 強。

Hampton took the number one spot in the lodging category, thanks to its strong preference, global growth and guest loyalty.

憑藉強大的受歡迎程度、全球性的成長和賓客的忠誠度，漢普頓在住宿類別中位居榜首。

In total, of our brands receive recognition, underscoring the value they drive for owners and guests and our leadership in franchising and innovation across the hospitality sector.

總體而言，我們的品牌獲得認可，彰顯了它們為業主和客人創造的價值以及我們在整個酒店業特許經營和創新方面的領導地位。

Overall, we're very pleased with our performance and proud of the record growth we delivered last year.

總體而言，我們對我們的表現非常滿意，並為去年實現的創紀錄增長感到自豪。

Our powerful network of brands continues to be an engine of opportunity for all of our stakeholders.

我們強大的品牌網絡繼續為所有利益相關者提供機會。

Given our strong momentum, robust pipeline and resilient fee-based business model, we're confident that we are well positioned to continue driving strong performance in 2025 and beyond.

鑑於我們強勁的發展勢頭、強勁的產品線和有彈性的收費業務模式，我們相信，我們有能力在 2025 年及以後繼續保持強勁的業績。

Now I'll turn the call over to Kevin to give you a little bit more details on the quarter and our expectations for the year.

現在我將電話轉給凱文，讓他向您提供有關本季和我們對今年的期望的更多詳細資訊。

Thanks, Chris, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝，克里斯，大家早安。

During the quarter, system-wide RevPAR grew 3.5% versus the prior year on a comparable and currency-neutral basis.

本季度，以可比較和貨幣中性計算，全系統 RevPAR 較前一年成長 3.5%。

Growth was largely driven by occupancy gains in leisure and continued recovery in Group and Business Transient.

成長主要得益於休閒度假入住率的提升以及團體和商務臨時住宿的持續復甦。

Adjusted EBITDA was $858 million in the fourth quarter, up 7% year over year and exceeding the high end of our guidance range.

第四季調整後 EBITDA 為 8.58 億美元，年成長 7%，超過我們預期範圍的高點。

Our performance was largely driven by better-than-expected RevPAR growth, lower corporate expense and timing items.

我們的業績主要得益於好於預期的 RevPAR 成長、較低的企業費用和時間項目。

Management franchise fees grew 5% year over year, ahead of our expectations despite an FX drag.

管理特許經營費年增 5%，儘管受到外匯影響，但仍超出我們的預期。

For the quarter, diluted earnings per share adjusted for special items was $1.76.

本季度，經特殊項目調整後的每股攤薄收益為 1.76 美元。

Turning to our regional performance.

談談我們的區域表現。

Fourth comparable US RevPAR was up 2.9% driven by strong Leisure demand and continued improvement across Business transient and Group.

受休閒需求強勁以及商務短期和團體業務持續改善的推動，美國第四大可比 RevPAR 上漲 2.9%。

For full year 2025, we expect US RevPAR growth at the low end of our system-wide range.

我們預計，2025 年全年美國的 RevPAR 成長率將處於全系統範圍的低端。

In the Americas outside the US, fourth quarter RevPAR increased 8.1% year over year driven by increased air capacity to the region and strong leisure trends during the holidays.

在美國以外的美洲地區，第四季 RevPAR 年增 8.1%，這得益於該地區航空運力的增加和假期期間休閒活動趨勢的強勁。

For full year 2025, we expect RevPAR growth in the mid-single-digit range.

我們預計 2025 年全年 RevPAR 成長率將達到中等個位數。

In Europe, RevPAR grew 6.2% year over year in the fourth quarter, largely driven by double-digit RevPAR growth in group.

在歐洲，第四季 RevPAR 年增 6.2%，主要得益於集團 RevPAR 實現兩位數的成長。

For full year 2025, we expect low to mid-single-digit RevPAR growth following the region's strong performance in 2024.

繼 2024 年該地區的強勁表現之後，我們預計 2025 年全年 RevPAR 將達到低至中等個位數成長。

In the Middle East and Africa region, RevPAR increased 8.4% year over year, supported by key events, including COP 29 in Baku and Formula 1 Racing Qatar and Abu Dhabi.

在中東和非洲地區，RevPAR 年增 8.4%，這得益於巴庫 COP 29 以及卡達和阿布達比一級方程式賽車賽等重大活動的推動。

For full year 2025, we expect RevPAR growth in the mid-single-digit range.

我們預計 2025 年全年 RevPAR 成長率將達到中等個位數。

In the Asia Pacific region, fourth quarter RevPAR was up 1.7% year over year.

在亞太地區，第四季 RevPAR 年增 1.7%。

RevPAR and APAC ex China increased 8.8%, led by strong leisure performance in Southeast Asia during the holiday season.

亞太地區（中國除外）RevPAR 成長了 8.8%，這主要得益於東南亞在假期期間休閒旅遊的強勁表現。

China RevPAR declined 4% in the quarter as softer macro conditions and outside travel continued to weigh on performance.

由於宏觀環境疲軟和境外旅遊持續對業績造成影響，中國區每間可用客房收入 (RevPAR) 本季下降了 4%。

However, trends improved sequentially versus the third quarter, driven by Golden Week and an uptick in demand following fiscal stimulus, positive momentum carrying into the new year.

不過，受黃金周和財政刺激措施後需求上升的推動，與第三季度相比，趨勢有所改善，積極的勢頭延續到了新的一年。

For full year 2025, we expect RevPAR growth in Asia Pacific to be in the low to mid-single-digit range, assuming low single-digit growth in China.

就 2025 年全年而言，我們預計亞太地區的 RevPAR 成長率將處於低個位數至中個位數範圍內，其中中國市場的成長率為低個位數。

Turning to development.

轉向發展。

As Chris mentioned, for the full year, we grew net units 7.3% and ended the year with over 498,000 rooms in our pipeline, which was up 8% year over year with more than half located outside the US and nearly half under construction.

正如克里斯所提到的，全年來看，我們的淨單位增長了 7.3%，年底我們的籌備客房數量超過 498,000 間，同比增長 8%，其中一半以上位於美國境外，近一半正在建設中。

Looking to the year ahead, we're excited about our strong development story and the robust demand for Hilton-branded products in both the US and international markets.

展望未來的一年，我們對強勁的發展歷程以及美國和國際市場對希爾頓品牌產品的強勁需求感到非常興奮。

Moving to guidance.

轉向指導。

For the first quarter, we expect system-wide RevPAR growth of 2.5% to 3.5% year over year.

第一季度，我們預計全系統的 RevPAR 將年增 2.5% 至 3.5%。

We expect adjusted EBITDA of between $770 million and $790 million and diluted EPS adjusted for special items to be between $1.57 and $1.63.

我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 在 7.7 億美元至 7.9 億美元之間，調整特殊項目的稀釋每股收益在 1.57 美元至 1.63 美元之間。

For full year 2025, we expect RevPAR growth of 2% to 3%.

我們預計 2025 年全年 RevPAR 成長率將達到 2% 至 3%。

We forecast adjusted EBITDA of between $3.7 billion and $3.74 billion and diluted EPS adjusted for special items of between $7.71 and $7.82. Please note that our guidance ranges do not incorporate future share repurchases.

我們預測調整後的 EBITDA 在 37 億美元至 37.4 億美元之間，調整特殊項目的稀釋每股收益在 7.71 美元至 7.82 美元之間。請注意，我們的指導範圍不包括未來的股票回購。

Moving on to capital return.

繼續討論資本回報。

We paid a cash dividend of $0.15 per share during the fourth quarter for a total of $150 million in dividends for the year.

我們在第四季度支付了每股 0.15 美元的現金股息，全年股息總額為 1.5 億美元。

For full year 2024, we returned $3 billion to shareholders in the form of buybacks and dividends.

2024 年全年，我們以回購和股利的形式向股東返還了 30 億美元。

In the first quarter, our Board authorized a quarterly cash dividend of $0.15 per share.

第一季度，我們董事會批准派發每股 0.15 美元的季度現金股利。

For the full year, we expect to return approximately $3.3 billion to shareholders in the form of buybacks and dividends.

就全年而言，我們預計以回購和股利的形式向股東返還約 33 億美元。

Further details on our fourth quarter and full year results can be found in the earnings release issued earlier this morning.

有關我們第四季度和全年業績的更多詳細信息，請參閱今天早上發布的收益報告。

This completes our prepared remarks.

我們的準備好的演講到此結束。

We would like to open the line for any questions you may have.

我們很樂意解答您的任何問題。

We would like to speak with as many of you as possible so we ask that you limit yourself to one question.

我們希望與盡可能多的人交談，因此我們要求您將問題限制在一個範圍內。

Can we have our first question, please?

我們可以提出第一個問題嗎？

We will now begin the question-and-answer session.

我們現在開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Shaun Kelley, Bank of America.

（操作員指示）美國銀行的 Shaun Kelley。

Chris, I wanted to build off -- a mention that you made in your prepared remarks, just a bit more of a macro one here to start.

克里斯，我想接著你在準備好的發言中所提到的內容，先從更宏觀的角度開始。

But we obviously just went through a major US election cycle since our last call and our last update, you've undoubtedly spoke with a number of hotel and business leaders, and you said that you sounded a little bit more confident than where we were a quarter ago.

但自從我們上次通話和上次更新以來，我們顯然剛剛經歷了美國重大選舉週期，您無疑已經與許多酒店和商界領袖進行了交談，您說您聽起來比一個季度前更有信心一些。

So can you just expand on that comment a little bit.

那麼能否稍微擴充一下該評論呢？

What are some of those conversations with business leaders looking like right now?

目前與商界領袖的對話是什麼樣的？

And maybe what segments of the Lodging business could we expect this -- some of the sentiment improvement to possibly impact?

我們或許可以預期住宿業務的哪些部分會受到情緒改善的影響？

Yes, happy.

是的，很開心。

I assume somebody would ask me that.

我想有人會問我這個問題。

I'm glad we're getting to it early.

我很高興我們能早點開始。

And obviously, these are just my opinion, but that's what you're asking for.

顯然，這些只是我的意見，但這正是你所要求的。

And most of this, I think, would not surprise you or anybody in the sense of the general view on what's going on in the macro.

我認為，從宏觀角度來看，上述大部分情況都不會令你或任何人感到驚訝。

I mean if you go back a quarter ago, we hadn't gotten to an election.

我的意思是，如果你回顧一個季度前，我們還沒有進行選舉。

There was a lot of noise around the election, and there was a lot of uncertainty around the outcome of the election at that time.

當時選舉周圍有很多喧囂，選舉結果也存在著許多不確定性。

And that uncertainty then translated into a whole bunch of uncertainty around things that people care about, whether that's consumers from a Leisure point of view.

這種不確定性隨後轉化為人們所關心的一系列事情的不確定性，無論他們是休閒角度的消費者。

And certainly, Business and Group ends up being a lot very directly related to business with huge amounts of uncertainty on regulatory spending, regulatory immigration, border tax policy.

當然，企業和集團最終與企業有著非常直接的聯繫，在監管支出、監管移民、邊境稅政策等方面存在大量不確定性。

And the practical reality is not just the uncertainty around the election, but the uncertainty around all of those outcomes means that people husband their capital a little bit more.

實際情況不僅僅是選舉的不確定性，所有這些結果的不確定性都意味著人們會更節約用錢。

They are -- they pull in their reins -- pull the reins in a little bit.

他們 — — 他們收緊韁繩 — — 稍微收緊韁繩。

They're a little bit more tepid.

他們的態度比較平淡。

I think, broadly in spending.

我認為，廣泛而言是在支出方面。

So fast forward to today, we have an election that is complete, whether you like it or not, it was pretty dispositive.

快進到今天，我們進行了一場完整的選舉，無論你喜歡與否，它都是決定性的。

It wasn't like close, it wasn't disputed.

這並不算接近，也沒有什麼爭議。

We knew in a day and -- or not even a day.

我們在一天之內就知道了——甚至不到一天。

And while there is certainly a lot of noise in a cycle of things that are going on by EO and everything else, living in Washington.

儘管 EO 和其他機構在華盛頓開展的一系列活動確實存在著許多噪音。

Trust me, I hear a lot of the noise, I live inside the Beltway.

相信我，我聽到了很多噪音，我住在環城公路裡。

I mean I think there is a broader belief, and I'll get to what I'm hearing from other leaders that will go nameless.

我的意思是，我認為有更廣泛的信仰，我會了解其他不願透露姓名的領導人所表達的意見。

There is a broad belief and I would say fairly consistent amongst the folks that I talked to across a broad range of industries that people think that the opportunity for economic growth in the short to intermediate term will be better.

人們普遍認為，而且我可以說，與我交流過的各行各業的人們都一致認為，短期至中期經濟成長的機會將會更好。

That doesn't mean that people don't think that there's noise and some people appreciate it more than others in terms of the various things that are going on.

這並不意味著人們不認為有噪音，而且就正在發生的各種事情而言，有些人比其他人更能體會到噪音。

But I think almost to a person that I'm talking to really quietly, I think people feel like you're going to see there is an opportunity for a pickup more broadly in economic growth and that there is an opportunity, I think, in our business as a result for a bit of an uptick, which is why I said I feel a bit better.

但我認為，幾乎對我正悄悄交談的一個人而言，人們會感覺你會看到經濟成長更廣泛地有機會回升，而且我認為，我們的業務也因此有機會略有回升，這就是我說我感覺好一點的原因。

Why?

為什麼？

Because you have an election behind you, one, while there's a lot of noise, you're going to be in a lighter regulatory environment across the board, financial services, a broad range of industries.

因為你已經有了一場選舉，儘管還有很多噪音，但你將處於一個全面放鬆監管的環境中，包括金融服務和廣泛的行業。

Two, tax policy, I mean unclear, it's going to take time.

二是稅收政策，我的意思是還不明確，這需要時間。

We're all reading about this morning.

我們都在讀有關今天早上的事。

One reconciliation bill, two, we're going to be debating it and trust, we're talking to a lot of people about it as to be unclear when exactly how it happens.

一項和解法案，二項，我們將對其進行辯論，相信我們正在與很多人討論它，但目前尚不清楚它究竟何時發生。

But it has to happen and I think certainly the business community is much more optimistic that, that's going to get done in a way that is favorable.

但它必須發生，而且我認為商界肯定會更加樂觀地認為這將以有利的方式完成。

And so again, across the board, as I talk to folks, by the way, talk to friends and think about as it affects Leisure business, but certainly talking to the folks that are running businesses across a broad range of industries I really can't think of one, that doesn't mean it didn't happen, but it's not in my memory set of somebody that thought that this is going to be -- what's happening is negative for broader economic growth.

因此，再說一次，總的來說，順便說一下，和朋友們交談時，思考它如何影響休閒業務，但肯定與在廣泛行業中經營企業的人們交談時，我真的想不出一個，這並不意味著它沒有發生，但在我的記憶中沒有人認為這將會發生——正在發生的事情對更廣泛的經濟增長產生負面影響。

So that's why I feel a bit more positive.

這就是為什麼我感覺更積極一些。

Now there is a lot of noise, right, particularly in the beginning.

現在有很多噪音，特別是剛開始的時候。

So the reason that we're not in our guidance and all those things not going crazy, in terms of building big upside is because there's a lot happening, and it's early, and I think we need to see how these things play out.

因此，我們之所以沒有達到預期，而且所有這些事情也沒有變得瘋狂，在構建巨大的上升空間方面，是因為有很多事情正在發生，而且還處於早期階段，我認為我們需要看看這些事情如何發展。

But I think the general sentiment I've said it is underneath it all when you live -- I guess, say, above it all, when you lift up above all the noise is that this is going to be good for the US economy and to a degree that will have some knock-on impact in various economies around the world as a result.

但我認為，我所說的普遍觀點是，當你生活在這一切之下時——我想，說，當你超越所有的噪音時，這將有利於美國經濟，並且在一定程度上會對世界各地的各個經濟體產生連鎖影響。

Stephen Grambling, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的史蒂芬‧格蘭布林 (Stephen Grambling)。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Despite that positive business demand outlook, coming out of ALIS, it seemed like there was a lot of skepticism around the development backdrop, just given where returns are versus interest rates yet you sound pretty positive on the development pipeline.

儘管 ALIS 的商業需求前景樂觀，但似乎人們對其發展背景持懷疑態度，考慮到回報率與利率的關係，您對發展管道的看法聽起來相當樂觀。

Clearly, your pipeline has been growing.

顯然，您的管道一直在增長。

So I just would love to hear how you think it has set Hilton apart from that much more cautious tone at the industry conference?

所以我很想聽聽您認為希爾頓與業界會議上更為謹慎的態度有何不同？

Yes.

是的。

I was there not for long, but I did the main panel and site, and we had a big owner reception.

我在那裡待的時間不長，但我負責了主要小組和現場工作，我們舉辦了一次盛大的業主招待會。

I think we have 400 owners.

我認為我們有 400 位業主。

So I talk to a lot of people in the short time I was there.

因此，我在那裡短暫的時間裡與很多人交談過。

And so not to Stephen, I appreciate the comment, and you were probably there longer than I am.

所以對於史蒂芬來說不是這樣，我很感謝你的評論，你在那裡的時間可能比我更長。

But I would probably frame it a little bit differently maybe.

但我或許會以稍微不同的方式來表達它。

What I -- I like break it down into like how people felt about M&A activity versus how they're feeling about new development activity.

我喜歡將其分解為人們對併購活動的感受以及他們對新開發活動的感受。

And I would say my read of it, again, not to take issue with it, was generally on the first M&A much more positive.

我想說的是，我對此的解讀，再次強調，不對此提出異議，總體而言，對第一次併購案的看法更加積極。

I think people are very much if there's more capital available rates have moved up a bit, but I think there's a belief that over the next 12, 24 months, broadly, rates will come down.

我認為，如果有更多的可用資本，人們就會非常擔心利率會略有上升，但我認為，人們相信在未來 12 到 24 個月內，利率總體上會下降。

I think people feel like the bid and the ask is getting closer because performance has ticked up a bit.

我認為人們感覺買入價和賣出價越來越接近，因為業績略有上升。

And so I sense and in fact we were asked on the panel.

所以我感覺，事實上我們也被問到了這個問題。

And I think the answer for most of the folks on the panel with me was a lot more optimism in M&A.

我認為與我一起參加討論的大部分人的答案是對併購更加樂觀。

In terms of the new development side of it, which is, I think, probably what you're referencing more, there's still a lot of friction for the reasons that you're describing.

就其新的發展方面而言，我認為，這可能是您更多提到的，由於您所描述的原因，仍然存在許多摩擦。

During COVID and following COVID, I got very expensive to build.

在疫情期間和疫情之後，我的建設成本非常高。

Cost structures went up and so it got hard and interest rates went up and capital availability went down.

成本結構上升，因此情況變得困難，利率上升，資本可用性下降。

And so that's an awfully difficult equation for new construction.

這對於新建築來說是一個非常困難的方程式。

I sensed actually some increasing optimism.

我確實感覺到樂觀情緒不斷增加。

And so the question is why?

那麼問題是為什麼？

Well, again, people's broader view, I think, was, I don't want to get ahead of ourselves, but more optimistic about what's going to go on broadly with the economy.

嗯，我認為，人們的更廣泛的觀點是，我不想超越自己，但對經濟的整體發展持更樂觀的態度。

So improving performance, stabilization of cost to build, stabilization on labor cost.

因此可以提高性能、穩定建設成本、穩定勞動成本。

There are other component cost insurance and others that are still going up.

還有其他組件成本保險和其他成本仍在上漲。

But some stabilization and, frankly, the largest parts of the expense base.

但有些穩定，坦白說，這是費用基礎中最大的一部分。

I believe and I think people are figuring this out an opportunity for rates, as I said, over the next 12 to 24 months to come down, inflation is moderating as we see one of the largest components of inflation as measured by the Federal Government is shelter, which is on a lag, still showing up at above target levels when reality of shelter costs are going up at closer to 1%.

我相信，人們正在將此視為一個降低利率的機會，正如我所說的，在未來 12 到 24 個月內，通貨膨脹將會緩和，因為我們看到，聯邦政府衡量的通貨膨脹的最大組成部分之一是住房，它存在滯後性，在住房成本實際上漲接近 1% 時，它仍然高於目標水平。

So as you start to see that data set factored into the inflation numbers, you're going to see a very large component of inflation come down.

因此，當您開始看到該資料集被考慮到通膨數字中時，您將看到通膨的很大一部分下降。

Obviously, the administration is super focused on energy and trying to bring energy costs down, which is another large contributor that has brought in.

顯然，政府非常重視能源並試圖降低能源成本，這是另一個巨大的動力。

So I do -- I believe and I think people are starting to believe that there is an opportunity not for rapid deceleration in interest rates.

所以我相信——而且我認為人們開始相信有機會不要快速降低利率。

There is over the next 12 to 24 months a likelihood that rates are going to come down.

未來 12 至 24 個月利率有下降的可能性。

And then last but not least, I do believe people are seeing more availability of capital.

最後但同樣重要的一點是，我確實相信人們看到了更多的資本可用性。

It's not a gusher but I think they're seeing more availability of capital.

雖然這不是什麼大筆資金，但我認為他們看到了更多可用的資本。

And I think there is a belief which is what was driving, I think, again, I want to be careful.

我認為存在著一種信念在驅動我，我認為，我還是要小心謹慎。

It wasn't ranging optimism.

這並不是什麼樂觀的事。

But a bit of a shift at least amongst our owner community is that in a world where the regulatory environment is going to get a lot easier on the financial system, which I think is pretty clearly happening in a world where the broader economic growth is stable to moving up a tick.

但至少在我們的業主群體中，出現了一種轉變，那就是監管環境對金融體系的要求將變得寬鬆得多，我認為這在總體經濟成長穩定甚至略有上升的世界中非常明顯地發生。

There's going to end up by definition, as there always is in that cycle being more capital available because the lending institutions of all sorts are going to have to go further out on the risk spectrum to get their yields.

按照定義，這最終會實現，因為在那個週期中總會有更多的資本可用，因為各種貸款機構都必須在風險範圍內走得更遠才能獲得收益。

And as a result, they're going to be looking more and more to do build and that activity.

因此，他們將會越來越多地尋求建設和開展此類活動。

And that's a normal cyclical thing that happens.

這是正常的周期性現象。

But I think with the regulatory environment that we're moving into, it will accelerate that.

但我認為，隨著我們正在進入的監管環境，這一進程將會加速。

So I -- again, I'm not going to say -- I'm not taking issues what you're hearing.

所以我 — — 再說一次，我不會說 — — 我不會注意你所聽到的問題。

There's certainly a lot of friction, and we hear that, but I would say I started to sense a movement to a more positive place.

確實存在著很多摩擦，我們也聽說了，但我想說，我開始感覺到一種朝著更積極的方向發展的趨勢。

Now the last part of it sorry, and I'll stop, why are we doing well?

現在到了最後一部分，抱歉，我就不說了，我們為什麼做得好？

How are we defining?

我們怎樣定義？

You didn't say it, but I'll say it.

你沒說，但我要說。

Sort of how we define gravity and what's been a difficult environment for new construction and development generally.

我們如何定義重力，以及新建築和開發通常面臨的困難環境是什麼。

And I think the answer is twofold.

我認為答案有兩個面向。

One, we -- I mean it's all related to our brands are the best performing brands in the industry.

首先，我們——我的意思是，這一切都與我們的品牌有關，我們的品牌是業界表現最好的品牌。

So while there isn't as much money.

因此雖然沒有那麼多錢。

I think there's more coming.

我認為還會有更多。

We are getting a very disproportionate share, we're just more financeable with the money that's available for new construction.

我們獲得的份額非常不成比例，我們只是利用可用於新建築的資金來獲得更多的融資。

And because our brands perform the best in the industry, we get a large disproportionate amount of conversion opportunities.

而且由於我們的品牌在業界表現最佳，我們獲得了大量不成比例的轉換機會。

I think over the last 12 months, we're not quite 50% of all conversion opportunities are moving into our system.

我認為在過去的 12 個月中，還沒有達到 50% 的轉換機會進入我們的系統。

And so those two things are uniquely helping -- have been uniquely helping us over the last couple of years.

所以這兩件事在過去幾年對我們有著獨特的幫助。

And I think we'll continue to help us, but I do believe the other things I said as well.

我認為我們會繼續幫助我們，但我也相信我說的其他話。

Carlo Santarelli, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的卡洛桑塔雷利 (Carlo Santarelli)。

Chris, you spoke a lot about development and conversions and stuff.

克里斯，你談了很多關於發展、轉變等等的事情。

And I might have missed this, you might have said it earlier, one of you may have said it, but conversions as a percentage of your unit growth in '24?

我可能錯過了這一點，你可能早些時候說過，你們中有人可能說過，但轉換率佔 24 年單位增長的百分比是多少？

And then how you see that shaping up for '25?

那麼，您認為 25 年的情況會是如何呢？

Then I just had a quick follow-up.

然後我只是進行了快速的跟進。

Yes.

是的。

For '24, if you include everything, the acquisitions and partnership is about 45%.

對於'24，如果把所有內容都包括進去，收購和合作大約佔45％。

It was in my prepared comments, I think it was.

我想，這是我準備好的評論。

And if you take those out, it was about one-third, plus or minus.

如果你把它們去掉，那就大約是三分之一，正負皆宜。

I think this year, '25 will be about one-third.

我認為今年，25% 將佔三分之一左右。

Probably meaning that we don't we don't have any big plan -- I mean there'll be some very modest incremental growth in our existing partnerships, but I would view that at our scale, a rounding error.

可能意味著我們沒有任何大計劃——我的意思是我們現有的合作夥伴關係會有一些非常溫和的增量增長，但我認為這在我們的規模下只是一個舍入誤差。

And so we're going to go back to more normally where we'd be, which is elevated from the mid-20s into the low to mid-30s, but not up where we were last year.

因此，我們將回到更正常的狀態，從 20 多歲上升到 30 多歲，但不會達到去年的水平。

And what was the last part?

最後部分是什麼？

Now the second part, I just had a follow-up.

現在說第二部分，我剛剛進行了跟進。

The -- as you look at your guidance, obviously, first quarter RevPAR guidance a little bit better than the full year.

從您的指引來看，顯然第一季的 RevPAR 指引比全年指引要好一點。

Adjusted EBITDA guidance, obviously, you're facing a challenging comparison.

調整後的 EBITDA 指引，顯然，您面臨著具有挑戰性的比較。

Was there -- were there some -- I don't want to say abnormalities, but some one-offs that were benefits in the 1Q '24 that you'll have to lap just looking at the midpoint of your adjusted EBITDA growth.

是否存在 - 是否存在一些 - 我不想說異常，而是 24 年第一季度的一些一次性收益，您只需查看調整後的 EBITDA 增長的中點即可。

Year over year is looking like 4% to 5% versus 8.5% for the full year.

年比增速預計為 4% 至 5%，而全年增速預計為 8.5%。

So I just want to get a little bit of color on some of the moving parts for the first quarter.

所以我只是想對第一季的一些活動部分做一點介紹。

Yes, you hit on it, Carlo, it is a tougher comp, and that was driven by a couple of onetime items and then you've got some FX impact in the first quarter.

是的，卡洛，你說到了點子上，這是一項更艱難的競爭，這是由幾個一次性項目推動的，然後你在第一季受到了一些外匯影響。

If you adjust for all that, it's basically in line with the algorithm.

如果你對所有這些進行調整，它基本上就符合演算法了。

Lizzie Dove, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的莉齊‧多夫 (Lizzie Dove)。

I know that ALIS one, but it seems like you're defying gravity a little bit on the cost side, too, with great EBITDA guide yet at ALIS week, there was a lot of talk around cost pressures in the industry, particularly on the insurance side, the wage side.

我知道那是 ALIS 之一，但看起來你們在成本方面也有點不順，在 ALIS 週，EBITDA 指南表現優異，但人們討論了很多有關行業成本壓力的話題，特別是在保險方面和工資方面。

Can you maybe talk about just how you're thinking about that broadly and any initiatives you have to offset it?

您能否談談您對這一問題的廣泛看法以及您為抵消這一影響所採取的任何舉措？

Yes.

是的。

Lizzie, I think if you're talking about us on our cost structure, we continue to be very disciplined.

莉齊，我想如果你談論我們的成本結構，我們會繼續保持非常嚴謹的態度。

Our GAAP G&A guide for the year, you probably noticed is even slightly lower than 2019 after six years of cost inflation.

您可能已經注意到，在經歷了六年的成本通膨之後，我們今年的 GAAP G&A 指南甚至比 2019 年略低。

I think on the operating side, as you say, with owners -- yes, there are some cost pressures.

我認為在營運方面，正如你所說，對於業主來說，是的，存在一些成本壓力。

And we have -- we just have to keep -- we are and we'll continue to work for our owners trying to find as many operational efficiencies as we can so that they can grow their bottom lines as well and doing the best we can on wages and benefits, doing the best we can insurance.

而且我們已經——我們只是必須保持——我們正在並將繼續為我們的業主工作，努力尋找盡可能多的運營效率，以便他們也可以增加他們的底線，並在工資和福利方面盡我們所能，盡我們所能提供保險。

Just helping them with operating efficiencies across the board.

只是幫助他們全面提高營運效率。

So I've actually missed ALIS this year, so -- but my guess is you were hearing a little bit from the ownership side on cost pressures.

所以我今年實際上錯過了 ALIS，所以 - 但我猜你從所有權方面聽到了一些關於成本壓力的消息。

And then for us, we just continue to remain disciplined.

對我們來說，我們只是繼續保持紀律。

David Katz, Jefferies.

傑富瑞（Jefferies）的戴維·卡茨（David Katz）。

Good morning, everybody.

大家早安。

Thanks for taking my -- it does appear that you're making some good traction in the luxury side of things.

感謝您接受我的採訪——看來您在奢侈品方面確實取得了一些進展。

I also observed that some of the capital deployed is up a bit this year.

我還觀察到，今年部署的部分資本略有增加。

And obviously, what we're hearing around analysis that the checks people are writing for luxury hotels are going up.

顯然，我們聽到的分析稱，人們為豪華酒店開出的支票金額正在增加。

Can you just give us a little more depth into how you're thinking about that?

您能否更深入地告訴我們您是如何考慮這個問題的？

Obviously, the strategy is getting some traction, but balancing that with some of the capital required to play in that segment.

顯然，該策略正在獲得一些支持，但需要平衡在該領域開展業務所需的部分資本。

Yes, sure.

是的，當然。

I mean, I think if you think about it, it depends on where you are in the world.

我的意思是，如果你仔細想想，這取決於你在世界的哪個地方。

We are getting a ton of traction in luxury and depending on where you are in the world, capital contributions from the operator can be higher or lower.

我們在奢侈品領域獲得了巨大的發展動力，根據您所在世界的哪個地方，營運商的資本貢獻可能會更高或更低。

In the Western world, they tend to be higher in that space.

在西方世界，他們的地位往往較高。

It's probably worth noting that a bunch of our traction in luxury at least last year came from the SLH partnership, which was completely capital light, right?

可能值得注意的是，至少去年我們在奢侈品領域的大部分成長都來自於與 SLH 的合作，而這完全是輕資本合作，對嗎？

Zero contribution on our part.

我們沒有任何貢獻。

You are hearing about some deals up there -- out there as you get into the higher end of the range, particularly in luxury, there are more competitors, right?

您聽說過一些交易——當你進入高端市場時，特別是在豪華市場，會有更多的競爭對手，對嗎？

And in our bread and butter in the mid-market depending on where you are in the location, maybe the list of brands that you want to play with is two or three.

而對於我們中端市場的主要業務而言，根據您所在的位置，您可能想要合作的品牌清單只有兩三個。

And we might be at the top of that list.

我們可能位於名單的首位。

When you get into the higher end of the range in luxury and the higher ends of full service, that the number of brands and the aperture opens up pretty wide.

當你進入高端奢華和高端全套服務時，品牌數量和範圍就會變得相當廣泛。

And so the laws of supply and demand are alive and well.

因此，供給與需求法則依然有效。

So it creates a lot of demand for key money.

因此對禮金的需求很大。

With all of that said, we still only contribute key money on 10% or less of our deals.

儘管如此，我們仍然只對 10％ 或更少的交易貢獻禮金。

We do play in some of those deals because they're important and they tend to be from time to time higher checks.

我們確實參與了其中一些交易，因為它們很重要，有時它們的金額會更高。

But I think if you look at what we do versus our competitors, I'll take our track record against anybody's any day.

但我認為，如果你把我們與競爭對手的表現進行比較，我會把我們的業績記錄與任何人的業績記錄進行比較。

And then the last thing is you talked about a little bit of the trajectory.

最後一件事是你談到了一點軌跡。

Last year was a little bit light.

去年稍微輕鬆一些。

I'd say there are a couple of deals out there where the timing has pushed into 2025.

我想說的是，有幾筆交易的時間已經推遲到 2025 年了。

So you're seeing that a little bit in our guidance.

因此，您會在我們的指導中看到一點這一點。

And our guidance for this year is right in line with what we said at the Investor Day, 250 to 300.

我們對今年的預期與投資者日所說的完全一致，為 250 到 300。

I think that's the right way to think about it on a run rate basis.

我認為這是從運行率角度思考這個問題的正確方法。

And that's for all CapEx, including key money.

這就是所有的資本支出，包括押金。

Robin Farley, UBS.

瑞銀的羅賓法利（Robin Farley）。

Great.

偉大的。

So obviously, great Q4 result and better '25 RevPAR guidance than a quarter ago.

因此顯然，第四季度的業績非常出色，而且 25 年 RevPAR 預期比上一季更好。

I did want to ask about you often talk about the algorithm, the growth algorithm being RevPAR plus unit growth and getting to fee growth and moving higher as you move down the P&L.

我確實想問您經常談論的演算法，成長演算法是 RevPAR 加上單位成長，然後達到費用成長，並且隨著 P&L 的下降而上升。

And it seems like for '25 that the EBITDA growth rate is a little bit lower than the midpoint of your RevPAR and unit growth.

看起來，對於 25 年來說，EBITDA 成長率略低於 RevPAR 和單位成長率的中點。

Just wondering what may be going on there and wondering if it's tied to -- in Q4, it looked like based on other management fees were down a bit.

只是想知道那裡可能發生了什麼，想知道這是否與——在第四季度，根據其他管理費用似乎有所下降。

And so is there something there that is continuing into 2025 that's not bringing the -- that top line growth getting magnified as it moves down the P&L?

那麼，是否存在一些會持續到 2025 年但不會隨著損益表的下降而帶來營收成長被放大的情況？

Yes, Robin, it's a good question.

是的，羅賓，這是個好問題。

I'll take the second part first because it's a little bit more straightforward answer.

我會先回答第二部分，因為它的答案會比較直接一些。

If you adjust those base and other fees for some onetime items in FX, it's actually been in the high single digits, and that was all baked into our guidance for Q4 and the numbers we gave you and we beat that guidance.

如果您調整外匯中一些一次性項目的基本費用和其他費用，它實際上已經達到了高個位數，而這些都已包含在我們對第四季度的預期和我們給您的數字中，而且我們超出了該預期。

So it actually came in a little bit better than we thought.

因此，結果實際上比我們想像的要好一些。

So there's nothing going on there other than some timing and some FX.

所以除了一些時間和特效之外，沒有發生什麼事。

And then for the full year '24, yes, the midpoint of our guidance is at 8.5, algorithm would suggest 9.

那麼對於 24 年全年來說，是的，我們的預期中點是 8.5，演算法建議是 9。

Again, it's the same -- it's actually the same answer as Carlo's question earlier in Q4 where if you adjust for some of the onetime items last year and you adjust for FX, we're above algorithm for this year at the midpoint.

再說一次，這其實和卡洛在第四季度早些時候提出的問題的答案是一樣的，如果你調整去年的一些一次性項目，並根據外匯進行調整，那麼我們今年的中點演算法就會高於這一水平。

Are there any one time

有沒有一次

--

--

And importantly, if you go back and look at it that, if you go back and look at Investor Day, what we laid out, the bottom line EBITDA numbers are higher than what we would have laid out a year ago for 2025 even with the FX really is FX.

重要的是，如果你回頭看看，如果你回頭看看投資者日，我們列出的底線 EBITDA 數字高於我們一年前為 2025 年制定的數字，即使外匯確實是外匯。

If you take FX out, it's above algorithm.

如果你取出 FX，它就位於演算法之上。

I mean, there are onetime things going on, but it's really FX.

我的意思是，有些事情是一次性發生的，但這確實是 FX。

But even still, even with the FX, bottom line EBITDA is higher than what we presented to everybody in our three-year plan.

但即便如此，即使考慮到外匯因素，底線 EBITDA 仍高於我們在三年計畫中向大家展示的水平。

And that's because, again, we're super disciplined, like we were super disciplined on the top line.

這是因為我們非常自律，就像我們在頂線上非常自律一樣。

We're also disciplined on our cost structure.

我們對成本結構也非常嚴格。

And so -- and if you think about this business versus '19, we finished last year with EBITDA margins that are over 8,000 basis points higher than the prior peak of 2019.

因此—如果您將這項業務與 2019 年進行比較，我們會發現去年我們的 EBITDA 利潤率比 2019 年的峰值高出 8,000 個基點以上。

So I think that's a pretty good testament to the discipline that we have in running this business.

所以我認為這很好地證明了我們經營這項業務的紀律。

That's super helpful color.

這是非常有用的顏色。

Just anything you'd call out in terms of those onetime items, just so we can think about that when we're thinking about the quarterly cadence, just any of the big ones you'd call out.

就那些一次性項目而言，您可以指出任何內容，這樣我們在考慮季度節奏時就可以考慮到這一點，您可以指出任何重要內容。

No, it's just the lumpy -- there are all sorts of -- their term fees, they are all sorts of things that happen in a normal year, and they sometimes get weighted in one quarter versus the other.

不，這只是不規則的——有各種各樣的——他們的學期費用，這些都是在正常年份發生的各種各樣的事情，有時它們在一個季度與另一個季度之間產生權重。

And in this case, some of them were weighted in the fourth quarter of 2024 or '23, in the first quarter of 2024.

在這種情況下，其中一些是在 2024 年第四季或 2023 年第一季加權的。

Once you get through that, those go away.

一旦你度過了這個難關，這些都會消失。

I mean you still have FX, depending on where the dollar goes.

我的意思是你仍然有外匯，這取決於美元的方向。

But that all washes away.

但這一切都消失了。

And obviously, for the full year, it washes away given you saw our guidance for the full year.

顯然，就全年而言，如果你看到了我們對全年的指導，它就會消失。

Brandt Montour, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的 Brandt Montour。

Maybe just following on that question, Kevin.

也許只是繼續回答這個問題，凱文。

If you could just maybe bridge the rest of the P&L.

如果您能彌補剩餘的損益，那也許可以。

When we look at EPS guide, versus, again, the Investor Day, algo, it's below that.

當我們查看每股收益指南與投資者日演算法相比時，它低於該指南。

Obviously, buybacks are not in the full year guide, but it was in the three-year algo.

顯然，回購並不在全年指南中，但它在三年演算法中。

But look, the bottom end of the EBITDA guide is right there in line and makes sense with your RevPAR, but it looks like the EPS is still a little lower.

但你看，EBITDA 指南的底端正好與你的 RevPAR 一致，而且也合理，但 EPS 似乎仍然有點低。

And if you could provide some extra color there, I'm sure would be helpful.

如果您可以提供一些額外的顏色，我相信會有所幫助。

Yes.

是的。

Sure, Brandt.

當然，布蘭特。

I mean, look, you mentioned that the big driver is buybacks, but that's all -- that was all factored for and I see your factory for.

我的意思是，你看，你提到最大的驅動力是回購，但僅此而已 - 這都被考慮在內了，我看到了你的工廠。

The other one is just releveraging, right?

另一個就是再槓桿化，對嗎？

We did $2 billion of financing to relever the balance sheet to fund -- to help fund our buyback program.

我們進行了 20 億美元的融資來重新調整資產負債表，為我們的回購計畫提供資金。

This past year, we've got another about similar amount next year, and it's just a little bit higher rates than we had been borrowing at before.

去年，我們又獲得了大約相同金額的貸款，而且利率比我們之前的借款利率略高一點。

And so you're just seeing that catch up flow through to EPS.

因此，您只是看到追趕串流轉到了 EPS。

And other than that, if you adjusted for all that, we'd be in the mid-teens in terms of adjusted EPS growth.

除此之外，如果對所有這些進行調整，我們的調整後每股盈餘成長率將達到十五六個百分點。

Yes.

是的。

And while you're relevering, it has an impact, but longer term, it doesn't have any impact, meaning once you've stabilized at a certain leverage levels than year over year, it fixes itself.

當你重新調整槓桿時，它會產生影響，但從長遠來看，它不會產生任何影響，這意味著一旦你在一定槓桿水平上穩定下來，那麼逐年上升，它就會自行修復。

Smedes Rose, Citi.

Smedes Rose，花旗銀行。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I just wanted to ask you, just really thinking about maybe just the US for a moment and your -- you talked about your RevPAR expectations across the system.

我只是想問您，只是真正地考慮了一下美國的情況，您談到了您對整個系統的 RevPAR 期望。

But when you think about just the luxury or upper upscale full-service properties versus select service, would you expect to continue to see more relative weakness on the select service side or any just commentary there of what you -- how you think the year could unfold and maybe what's weighing or supporting your expectations for that segment?

但是，當您只考慮豪華或高檔的全方位服務酒店與精選服務酒店時，您是否預計精選服務方面會繼續出現相對疲軟的跡象，或者您認為今年將如何發展，以及什麼因素影響或支撐了您對這一細分市場的預期？

No.

不。

I think, Smedes, you might -- I think you're talking about Q4.

我認為，Smedes，你可能——我認為你正在談論 Q4。

Are you talking about Q4 relative to chain scale performance?

您說的第四季相對於連鎖規模的表現是怎麼樣的？

Well, and for the year as well.

嗯，今年也一樣。

I mean I think the industry.

我的意思是我認為這個行業。

It's really just year-over-year comps, right?

這真的只是同比數據，對嗎？

So I think -- we wouldn't call out any underperformance.

所以我認為——我們不會指出任何表現不佳的情況。

We continue to be in line or better than chain scale performance for the full year '24.

24年全年，我們的業績持續與連鎖規模持平或更好。

We're gaining share, and we expect that to continue.

我們的份額正在增加，預計這種趨勢將會持續下去。

Patrick Scholes, Truist Securities.

Truist Securities 的 Patrick Scholes。

One thing I don't think I've heard you speak about is tariffs and specifically what potentially might be any impact on your franchisees or potential developers and builders.

我認為我還沒有聽過您談論的一件事就是關稅，特別是可能對您的特許經營商或潛在開發商和建築商產生的影響。

What are you hearing from them and the last time I blinked, I believe you would care at the moment could change in a moment, is the 10% from China, but I'd like to hear your thoughts around that potential and

你從他們那裡聽到了什麼？

--

--

Yeah, I'm happy to talk about it, as you pointed out, embedded in your question is that the tariffs and then they're not, and it's moving around a lot.

是的，我很高興談論這個話題，正如你所指出的，你的問題中隱含著關稅問題，但關稅並沒有發生很大的變化。

So far, obviously, we've talked to a lot of people, not any real impact to speak of.

到目前為止，顯然我們已經與很多人進行了交談，但還未產生任何實際影響。

It depends what happens.

這取決於發生什麼情況。

I do believe what's playing out is a series of trade negotiations that are delicate and I believe tariffs are part of that negotiation and part of the strategy of getting to the right kinds of deals in the end.

我確實相信正在進行的一系列微妙的貿易談判，我相信關稅是談判的一部分，也是最終達成正確協議的策略的一部分。

So that doesn't mean there won't be tariffs.

所以這並不意味著不會有關稅。

But my guess is that we will end up in most cases, in a place where we get some form of trade deal done that will not involve major tariffs.

但我的猜測是，大多數情況下，我們最終都會達成某種不涉及高關稅的貿易協定。

And so again, I like all of you that know me know I like to lift up above the noise, this whole steady hand on the wheel.

所以再說一次，我和所有認識我的人一樣，喜歡忽略噪音，把整個手穩定地放在方向盤上。

I think when you lift above it all, I still believe the opportunity is broadly even with all the noise of tariffs.

我認為，當你超越這一切時，我仍然相信，儘管有關稅的喧囂，但機會仍然存在。

And I'll come back to supply chain in a second that we -- that we have broader economic growth that's better than we thought it was going to be, not worse even with the risk of various negotiations and short-term tariffs and imposition of short-term tariffs.

我稍後再回到供應鏈問題，我們的整體經濟成長比我們想像的要好，即使面臨各種談判、短期關稅和徵收短期關稅的風險，經濟成長也不會更糟。

One of the things that we've done so far, no impact and frankly, not to say it depends on what happens, that we couldn't have impact, but we've diversified our supply chains in a very aggressive way over the last five years.

到目前為止，我們所做的事情之一沒有影響，坦白說，並不是說這取決於發生什麼情況，我們不可能產生影響，但在過去五年裡，我們以非常積極的方式實現了供應鏈多元化。

I mean think about what happened in COVID, like couldn't get things.

我的意思是想想在 COVID 中發生的事情，例如無法得到東西。

So part of it was driven by the necessity of diversification coming out of COVID.

因此，部分原因是由於新冠疫情導致的多樣化必要性。

But then we continued on because we just think it's a really good idea to have various places in the world where we can get various products.

但後來我們繼續前進，因為我們認為在世界各地設立可以購買各種產品的地方是一個非常好的主意。

So that's not like we're getting carry from one place in the world for the whole system because that would create risk that if you had a problem with tariffs in that particular location, it could call a ripple effect.

所以，這並不意味著我們從世界上的某個地方獲得整個系統的利益，因為這會產生風險，如果某個特定地方的關稅出現問題，可能會引發連鎖反應。

So I would say, again, never -- I can't say it would have no impact.

因此我想再說一遍，永遠不能——我不能說它不會產生影響。

But we have done our HSN team has done a terrific job of diversifying our supply chain.

但是我們的 HSN 團隊在實現供應鏈多樣化方面做得非常出色。

And so we feel pretty good.

因此我們感覺非常好。

We feel pretty good that at least what's going on so far in the -- and the areas are in question that we have ways to pivot given our supply chain relationships in other parts of the world.

我們感覺相當不錯，至少到目前為止，考慮到我們在世界其他地區的供應鏈關係，我們有辦法調整這些有問題的領域。

Michael Bellisario, Baird.

邁克爾·貝裡薩裡奧，貝爾德。

Just wonder if there's any commentary you can give on deletions and also what might be falling out of the pipeline?

只是想知道您是否能對刪除的內容以及可能出現的問題給予一些評論？

Any color on how those might be trending and what the read-through would be there?

有任何關於這些可能趨勢以及解讀內容的詳細資訊嗎？

It's a good question.

這是個好問題。

We generally remove 1 point to 1.25 points of the system every year.

我們一般每年扣除1到1.25分。

I mean it's the same answer as we've talked about before, Michael.

我的意思是這和我們之前談論的答案是一樣的，麥可。

Most of those are our choice.

其中大部分都是我們的選擇。

We did do a little bit more last year for 2024 than typical than that run rate.

去年，我們為 2024 年所做的努力確實比平常的運行率要多一些。

But everything that's baked into our expectation for '25 is consistent with long-term averages.

但我們對 25 年的預期與長期平均值一致。

Chad Beynon, Macquarie.

麥格理的查德貝農 (Chad Beynon)。

Just wanted to ask about your comment on large corporations traveling more, that impact on BT and Group.

只是想問一下您對大公司出行增加以及這對 BT 和集團產生的影響的評論。

Wondering when you started to see that acceleration.

想知道你什麼時候開始看到這種加速度。

And now that we have more certainty and some more certainty around policy inside the Beltway, if that could be a big positive swing factor sequentially as we work through the next couple of months for the go forward?

現在我們對華盛頓特區內部的政策有了更多的確定性，這是否會成為我們在接下來的幾個月中向前邁進的一個重要的正面影響因素？

It certainly could be.

這當然是有可能的。

We are not -- we have not given you guidance or forecasted that.

我們沒有——我們沒有給你指導或預測這一點。

I would say we saw throughout the fourth quarter an uptick and then particularly post-election demonstrated by midweek strength.

我想說，我們在整個第四季都看到了上漲趨勢，特別是在選舉之後，在周中更是表現出強勁勢頭。

Now I think that was based on all the things that I described earlier, people's belief on more certainty on tax, regulatory environment.

現在我認為這是基於我之前描述的所有事情，人們對稅收、監管環境更確定的信念。

It's just more comfort, spending more.

這只是更加舒適，花費也更多。

I think part of it was that the way the holidays fell, it compressed the fourth quarter in terms of travel days, and that gave us a benefit in the fourth quarter.

我認為部分原因在於假期壓縮了第四季度的旅行天數，這為我們在第四季度帶來了好處。

But net-net, as I said, every CEO I'm talking to, what I met with our Head of Sales across all our special corporate accounts.

但正如我所說的，我與之交談過的每一位首席執行官，以及我與我們所有特殊公司帳戶的銷售主管都進行了會面。

I mean, uniformly, I think people whether it happened in part because of the election, which I think it probably did, but it was happening anyway just in a normal cycle of people getting back to office and getting more serious about running their businesses and back to a little bit of business as usual.

我的意思是，我一致認為，人們是否發生這種情況部分是因為選舉，我認為可能確實如此，但無論如何，這只是一個正常的周期，人們回到辦公室，更加認真地經營他們的企業，並恢復正常的業務。

If you talk to all accounts, if you talk to large, medium, small, almost without exception, people are broadly saying that they're going to travel more, okay?

如果你與所有帳戶進行交流，無論大、中、小，幾乎無一例外，人們都普遍表示他們將會更多地旅行，好嗎？

And they broadly understand that they're going to pay more for their travel because they understand that the environment they're living in.

他們普遍明白，他們將為旅行支付更多費用，因為他們了解自己所處的環境。

And so I do think that bodes well for business transient recovery to continue to beat our way back to prior obviously, rate structures are higher.

因此，我確實認為，這對業務的短暫復甦來說是一個好兆頭，顯然，這將持續推動我們回到以前的水平，利率結構也會更高。

We're just not back to prior levels of demand but I think by the end of the year, there's certainly a pretty good shot of being able to do that.

我們只是還沒有恢復到以前的需求水平，但我認為到今年年底，肯定有很大機會能夠做到這一點。

And same with Group and Leisure as I commented on in my introductory comments, Leisure's already way over.

正如我在介紹性評論中提到的那樣，團體和休閒也一樣，休閒已經結束了。

So I think you'll see some substitution effect as between the segments, which will be good.

因此我認為你會看到各個部分之間出現一些替代效應，這將是一件好事。

What you should want to see and I certainly want to see is as Business Transient demand levels recover and then I think will ultimately go beyond prior peaks in core demand, you'll be trying to manage your inventory in a way where you're taking out lower-priced segments, that would be lower-rated leisure.

您應該希望看到的，而且我當然希望看到的是，隨著商務瞬時需求水平的恢復，我認為最終將超越核心需求的先前峰值，您將嘗試以一種方式管理您的庫存，即取出價格較低的部分，也就是評級較低的休閒部分。

We want to keep the high-rated leisure, but some of the lower rated leisure, which we're super focused on as that's happening.

我們希望保留評分高的休閒項目，但也希望保留一些評分較低的休閒項目，我們會非常關注這些項目的進度。

So it's a long-winded way of saying it was happening in the fourth quarter then accelerated in a post-election world.

簡而言之，這種現像在第四季就已發生，然後在選舉後加速。

The trends so far are indicative of the same thing, although it's early in the year.

儘管現在還只是年初，但迄今為止的趨勢表明了同一件事。

You're not -- you had the holidays falling away where January wasn't a barn burner, I mean it was fine and in line with our expectations, but people just aren't -- they're just fully get back out on the road, but I suspect we will see a bit of a small step change in midweek trap.

你不是——你的假期已經過去了，而一月份並不是一個熱鬧的月份，我的意思是，這很好，符合我們的預期，但人們還沒有——他們只是完全回到了路上，但我認為我們會看到周中陷阱的一點小變化。

Richard Clarke, Bernstein.

理查克拉克，伯恩斯坦。

I just want to ask about the dawn of the Agentic AI.

我只是想問一下 Agentic AI 的起源。

Obviously, the first partners into those AI agents have been the online travel agencies booking, TripAdvisor, et cetera.

顯然，這些人工智慧代理商的首批合作夥伴是網路旅行社預訂、TripAdvisor等。

Are you talking to those agents?

你在跟那些經紀人談話嗎？

Would you be happy for an OTA to handle your distribution through those agents?

您是否願意讓 OTA 透過這些代理商來處理您的分銷？

And maybe overall, do you see that development as good or bad news for Hilton?

總體而言，您認為這項發展對希爾頓來說是好消息還是壞消息？

Yes.

是的。

I mean we obviously want to deal with our customers as directly as we can.

我的意思是，我們顯然希望盡可能直接與客戶打交道。

I mean we do have a percentage of our business that comes through the OTAs.

我的意思是我們的業務中確實有一部分是透過 OTA 實現的。

It's a relatively small percentage of the business, we have good relationships there.

這只占我們業務的一小部分，我們在此保持良好的關係。

The better they can serve that customer that we access through them better for everybody.

他們越能更好地服務我們透過他們接觸到的客戶，對每個人來說就越好。

The better experience is as what we want.

更好的體驗才是我們想要的。

And so we think that's great.

因此我們認為這很棒。

But the very large majority of our system is driven through our direct relationships.

但我們系統的絕大部分是透過直接關係來驅動的。

We want, obviously, for that to continue.

顯然，我們希望這種情況能夠持續下去。

We've done a huge amount of work in how we think about every element of the relationship we have with our customers from the first time that they dream about a trip, to exploration of how they -- where they want to go to the booking experience, to putting their package together to, pre-arrival, on stay, post-arrival, every element of it, and we're -- without getting into great detail because it would take a whole day to do it.

我們做了大量的工作來思考與客戶關係的各個要素，從客戶第一次夢想旅行，到探索他們想要去哪裡，到預訂體驗，到製定旅行計劃，到抵達前、入住時、抵達後，每個要素，我們不會深入細節，因為這需要一整天的時間。

We are super engaged in how we use tools and technology including AI and every step of that journey to make it a more pleasant and friction pre-experience for our customers.

我們非常致力於使用包括人工智慧在內的工具和技術以及旅程的每一步，為我們的客戶提供更愉快和更少摩擦的預體驗。

And so no, we don't plan to outsource that is the short answer.

簡短的回答是，我們不打算外包。

We're doing -- we're all over it.

我們正在做——我們已經做好了一切。

And I think, honestly, the work we're doing across the board, but particularly with the stay experience in terms of being able to use AI from a data and analytics point of view to understand in great granular detail, what individual customers want and then to mass customize the experience, both ahead of stay, but particularly on stay.

我認為，老實說，我們正在全面開展工作，特別是在住宿體驗方面，能夠從數據和分析的角度使用人工智能來詳細了解個人客戶的需求，然後大規模定制體驗，無論是在入住前，還是在入住時。

We have some really, really interesting things going on and game-changing things there.

我們正在發生一些非常非常有趣的事情和改變遊戲規則的事情。

And so we are fully committed to pursuing the -- continuing our pursuit of direct relationships with our customers.

因此，我們全心致力於持續追求與客戶建立直接關係。

Thanks Chris.

謝謝克里斯。

Maybe just to ask a follow-up on that.

也許只是想問一下後續狀況。

Did I conclude, therefore, that you would not allow an open AI agent or a Gemini agent to navigate to Hilton and make a booking on behalf of the customer.

因此，我是否可以得出結論：您不會允許開放的 AI 代理或 Gemini 代理導航到希爾頓並代表客戶進行預訂。

You're saying they would have to come direct to do that not through an agent AI?

你是說他們必須直接來做這件事，而不是透過代理 AI？

I just said, we may work directly with a number of those players.

我剛才說過，我們可能會直接與其中一些球員合作。

So we will directly with them.

因此我們將直接與他們聯繫。

What we're saying is we don't want to work indirectly with some of those players.

我們的意思是，我們不想與其中一些玩家間接合作。

Dan Politzer, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的 Dan Politzer。

I just want to circle back on Leisure a bit.

我只是想稍微回顧一下休閒話題。

You guys called out the strong occupancy trends, particularly in December.

你們指出了強勁的入住率趨勢，特別是在十二月份。

Was that mostly in the US?

主要發生在美國嗎？

Was it international?

它是國際性的嗎？

And then also, can you maybe touch on -- it sounds like that was a bit lower rate and higher rate, given that it was occupancy.

然後，您能否談談——聽起來這是一個稍微低一點的費率和一個稍微高一點的費率，因為這是入住率。

And then just one clarification for the first quarter, anything to call out in terms of calendar spring break, Easter, anything we should be aware of?

然後針對第一季進行一點澄清，在日曆春假、復活節方面有什麼需要注意的嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I think in the fourth quarter, it was pretty much everywhere headed in Leisure and it had a lot to do with how the holidays fell.

我認為在第四季度，各個地方的休閒活動都比較多，這與假期的到來有很大關係。

Now that impacts some regions more than others, but the holidays fell in a way that stipulated a lot of travel.

現在，這對某些地區的影響比其他地區更大，但假期的到來導致人們需要進行大量旅行。

By the way, it was across the board.

順便說一句，這是全面的。

It wasn't low rated, volume-wise would have been more low rated, but it stimulated all rate structures of Leisure.

它的評級並不低，從數量上看，評級會更低，但它刺激了休閒的所有費率結構。

And then post the second part of the question.

然後發布問題的第二部分。

Holiday, in the first quarter, you have Easter -- the biggest impact is Easter moving from Q1 to Q2.

假期，在第一季度，有復活節——最大的影響是復活節從第一季移到第二季。

Otherwise, I mean, obviously, there's a lot of noise with what fires and storms and snow and all that.

否則，我的意思是，顯然，火災、風暴、雪災等等都會帶來很大的噪音。

Best we can tell sadly, there's a lot of things that go on every year.

不幸的是，我們能說出來的最好的事情是每年都會發生很多事情。

There was enough of that going on in the first quarter of last year that it doesn't strike us yet that there is any real net impact but Easter moving is a net positive for Q1 and will be a negative, obviously, for Q2.

去年第一季發生了足夠多這樣的情況，以至於我們還沒有意識到有任何真正的淨影響，但復活節的遷移對第一季來說是一個淨利好，而對第二季度來說，顯然是一個負面影響。

That's the primary driver of guidance being 0.5 points ahead in Q1.

這是第一季領先 0.5 個百分點的主要驅動因素。

Conor Cunningham, Melius Research.

康納·坎寧安（Conor Cunningham），Melius Research。

So positive comment on China today.

今天對中國的評價非常積極。

So I'm just curious if you could unpack that a little bit.

所以我只是好奇你是否可以稍微解釋一下這個問題。

I would imagine that within that low single-digit number that you talked about for '25 the differences in first half versus second half are pretty stark.

我可以想像，在您所談論的 25 年低個位數內，上半年與下半年的差異相當明顯。

So if you could just bridge that a little bit?

那你能不能稍微緩解一下這個局面？

And then maybe touch a bit on just development and signings and what's going on in the region in general?

然後也許可以稍微談談發展和簽約情況以及該地區的整體情況？

Yes, sure.

是的，當然。

For China, it's pretty -- it was pretty consistent last year over the course of the year.

對中國來說，去年全年的表現相當穩定。

It ended up down 5-ish for the year.

今年全年最終下跌了 5% 左右。

I think it was down four in the fourth quarter as what I had in my prepared remarks.

我認為第四季度下降了 4%，正如我在準備好的發言中所說的那樣。

For this year, I don't have the quarterly spread exactly in front of me, but I think it's pretty consistent across the board at low single digits.

就今年而言，我並沒有確切的季度利差，但我認為整體利差相當穩定，保持在個位數的低點。

And then development, we're doing great.

然後是發展，我們做得很好。

In 2024, our approvals and starts are both up 10% and our openings in China we're up nearly 30%, and we continue to really well started across the board in chain scales in terms of demand for the product.

2024 年，我們的批准和開工量均增長了 10%，我們在中國的開業數量增長了近 30%，而且從產品需求來看，我們在連鎖規模上繼續全面取得良好開端。

So the slowdown you're seeing overall in real estate isn't affecting lodging as much.

因此，房地產行業整體的放緩對住宿業的影響並不大。

And in fact, lodging is -- our developers are a bit of a beneficiary from hotels, particularly mid-market hotels, both in Hilton Garden Inn and our Master Limited Partnerships being a good adaptive reuse for some of the Shell Residential Buildings and Shell office buildings that got developed and now need to find a different use in China.

事實上，住宿是——我們的開發商從酒店、特別是中端酒店中受益，無論是希爾頓花園酒店還是我們的有限合夥企業，都對一些已經開發的殼牌住宅大樓和殼牌辦公大樓進行了良好的適應性再利用，現在這些大樓需要在中國找到不同的用途。

So low single-digit RevPAR growth, definitely a little bit of that is, of course, on easier comps and do we really know what GDP growth is going to be in China this year?

因此，RevPAR 的低個位數成長，肯定有一點是建立在更容易比較的基礎上的，我們真的知道今年中國 GDP 的成長會是多少嗎？

No, but we feel pretty good about doing better on the fundamental side, and then we're doing great on the development side.

不，但是我們對基礎方面做得更好感到非常高興，而且我們在發展方面也做得很好。

The only other thing I'd add in China is Chinese are traveling like crazy.

關於中國我唯一想補充的是，中國人的旅遊熱情十分高漲。

So there's a whole outbound story, which is China has opened up Visa free zones, inter Asia, Visa free zones.

所以有一個完整的出境故事，就是中國已經開放了免簽證區，包括亞洲內的免簽證區。

And so while we still expect China to be positive growth, but tepid, as Kevin just suggested, when you aggregate all the demand for travel coming out of China, it's super beneficial to our broader APAC business.

因此，雖然我們仍然預計中國將實現正增長，但正如凱文剛才所說的那樣，增長勢頭不溫不火，但當你把來自中國的所有旅遊需求匯總起來時，這對我們更廣泛的亞太地區業務非常有利。

So like Japan, Southeast Asia, they are huge.

像日本、東南亞這些國家，它們的規模都非常大。

Australasia to a degree, they're huge beneficiaries of a lot of outbound travel outside of China.

在某種程度上，澳洲是中國出境大量成長的巨大受益者。

But that obviously has the effect of diminishing what's going on within China.

但這顯然會削弱中國國內正在發生的事情。

But the good news about a big global diversified company like ours as we get to pick it up on the other side, too.

但對於像我們這樣的大型全球多元化公司來說，好消息是，我們也能從另一方面了解這一點。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question-and-answer session.

女士們、先生們，我們的問答環節到此結束。

I would now like to turn the call back over to Chris Nassetta for any additional or closing remarks.

現在，我想將電話轉回給克里斯·納塞塔 (Chris Nassetta)，請他發表任何補充意見或結束語。

Thanks again, everybody, for joining us.

再次感謝大家的加入我們。

We always appreciate the time.

我們總是珍惜時間。

Great questions.

很好的問題。

Hopefully, we gave you a little bit of context in addition to our prepared commentary.

希望我們除了準備好的評論之外還能提供您一些背景資訊。

It's an interesting world, but we're, as you heard, I'm super optimistic about -- obviously, very happy with how we finished out '24 and '24 overall.

這是一個有趣的世界，但正如你所聽到的，我非常樂觀——顯然，我們對 24 年以及 24 年整體的成績感到非常滿意。

And optimistic as we go into 2025.

我們對於進入 2025 年充滿樂觀。

So we'll look forward to catching up with you after we finish the first quarter.

因此，我們期待在第一季結束後與您會面。

Thanks again.

再次感謝。

Have a great day.

祝你有美好的一天。

The conference has now concluded.

會議現已結束。

Thank you for attending today's presentation.

感謝您參加今天的演講。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。