希爾頓酒店 (HLT) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Hilton fourth-quarter 2024 (sic - 2025) earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Charlie Ruehr, Vice President, Corporate Finance and Investor Relations. You may begin.

早安，歡迎參加希爾頓酒店集團 2024 年（原文如此，應為 2025 年）第四季財報電話會議。（操作說明）請注意，本次活動正在錄影。現在我謹將會議交給公司財務和投資者關係副總裁查理·魯爾先生。你可以開始了。

Thank you, Chuck. Welcome to Hilton's fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings call. Before we begin, we would like to remind you that our discussions this morning will include forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those indicated in the forward-looking statements, and forward-looking statements made today speak only to our expectations as of today.

謝謝你，查克。歡迎參加希爾頓飯店集團2025年第四季及全年財報電話會議。在開始之前，我們想提醒各位，今天上午的討論將包含前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與前瞻性聲明中指出的結果有重大差異，今天作出的前瞻性聲明僅代表我們截至今天的預期。

We undertake no obligation to update or revise these statements. For a discussion of some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ, please see the Risk Factors section of our most recently filed Form 10-K.

我們不承擔更新或修改這些聲明的義務。有關可能導致實際結果出現差異的一些因素的討論，請參閱我們最新提交的 10-K 表格中的「風險因素」部分。

In addition, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures on this call. You can find reconciliations of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures discussed in today's call in our earnings press release and on our website at ir.hilton.com.

此外，我們將在本次電話會議中提及某些非GAAP財務指標。您可以在我們的獲利新聞稿和我們的網站 ir.hilton.com 上找到今天電話會議中討論的非 GAAP 與 GAAP 財務指標的調整表。

This morning, Chris Nassetta, our President and Chief Executive Officer, will provide an overview of the current operating environment and the company's outlook. Kevin Jacobs, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, will then review our fourth-quarter and full-year results and discuss our expectations for the year. Following their remarks, we will be happy to take your questions.

今天上午，我們的總裁兼執行長克里斯·納塞塔將概述當前的經營環境和公司的前景。接下來，我們的執行副總裁兼財務長凱文·雅各布斯將回顧我們第四季和全年的業績，並討論我們對今年的預期。他們的發言結束後，我們將樂意回答各位的問題。

With that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Chris.

接下來，我很高興把電話交給克里斯。

Thank you, Charlie, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us today. We're pleased to report a solid end to what was another strong year for Hilton. In 2025, we expanded our portfolio of brands, grew our pipeline to a new record, and strengthened our nearly 0.25 billion member loyalty system with new partnerships and loyalty tiers, all of which we believe sets us up for continued growth in 2026 and beyond.

謝謝你，查理，大家早安。感謝您今天蒞臨。我們很高興地宣布，希爾頓又迎來了一個強勁的年份，並取得了圓滿的成績。2025年，我們擴大了品牌組合，將產品線發展到新的紀錄，並透過新的合作夥伴關係和忠誠度等級加強了近2.5億會員的忠誠度系統，我們相信所有這些都將為我們在2026年及以後的持續增長奠定基礎。

Together with our team members and owners, we've delivered a solid year on both top line and bottom line performance. For the full year, system-wide RevPAR growth was up 40 basis points year-over-year, driven by strong performance in EMEA and growth in group and leisure transient.

我們與團隊成員和所有者一起，在營收和利潤方面都取得了穩健的業績。全年來看，系統整體每間可供出租客房收入年增 40 個基點，主要得益於歐洲、中東和非洲地區的強勁表現以及團體和休閒散客業務的增長。

Industry-leading net unit growth, outperformance in non-RevPAR business lines, and cost discipline drove record adjusted EBITDA of $3.7 billion, up 9% year-over-year. In 2025, we returned $3.3 billion to our shareholders, the highest total capital return in our history, even with the softer than originally anticipated RevPAR, demonstrating the power of our capital-light business model.

業界領先的淨單位成長、非RevPAR業務線的優異表現以及成本控制推動調整後EBITDA創下37億美元的紀錄，較去年同期成長9%。2025 年，我們向股東返還了 33 億美元，這是我們歷史上最高的總資本回報，即使每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 低於預期，也證明了我們輕資本商業模式的強大實力。

Turning to results for the fourth quarter. System-wide RevPAR increased 50 basis points year-over-year as strong international performance and solid group demand were offset by softer US government demand and weaker international inbound into the US. In the quarter, leisure transient RevPAR was up 2.3%, driven by international strength, especially in EMEA.

接下來來看看第四季的業績。由於強勁的國際市場表現和穩健的團體需求被疲軟的美國政府需求和國際遊客赴美旅遊人數減少所抵消，系統整體每間可供出租客房收入同比增長 50 個基點。本季休閒散客RevPAR成長2.3%，主要得益於國際市場的強勁表現，尤其是歐洲、中東和非洲地區的強勁表現。

Business transient RevPAR was down 2.1%, driven primarily by headwinds from the US government shutdown. Group RevPAR was up 2.6%, driven by strong international group growth and company meeting demand. System-wide RevPAR for the quarter was strongest in December, up 1.7%, with strength in leisure and group and a meaningful pickup in business transient.

商務旅客RevPAR下降了2.1%，主要原因是美國政府停擺的不利影響。集團每間可供出租客房收入成長2.6%，主要得益於國際集團的強勁成長和公司滿足市場需求。12 月系統整體每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 最為強勁，成長了 1.7%，休閒和團體業務表現強勁，商務散客業務也有顯著回升。

Positive trends continued into early 2026 with group leading, including strong in-month group bookings, solid leisure demand and continued business transient improvement. For the first quarter, we expect RevPAR growth of between 1% and 2% year-over-year, including the impact from the recent storms in the US.

正面的趨勢延續到 2026 年初，以團體預訂為主，包括強勁的當月團體預訂量、穩健的休閒需求和持續改善的商務散客需求。考慮到近期美國風暴的影響，我們預計第一季每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 將年增 1% 至 2%。

As we look to the year ahead, we feel optimistic that 2026 will be stronger than 2025. We believe this will be driven by continued strength in EMEA, improvement in APAC, and an improvement in the US driven by stronger economic conditions, major events, easier comps, and continued limited supply. For the full year, we expect system-wide top line growth of 1% to 2% with international performance stronger than in the US.

展望未來一年，我們樂觀地認為 2026 年將比 2025 年更強勁。我們認為，這將受到歐洲、中東和非洲地區持續強勁成長、亞太地區市場改善以及美國市場改善的推動，而美國市場的改善則得益於更強勁的經濟狀況、重大事件、更容易比較的基數以及持續有限的供應。我們預計全年系統營收成長1%至2%，其中國際市場表現強於美國市場。

Turning to development. During the fourth quarter, we opened nearly 200 hotels totaling nearly 26,000 rooms. For the full year, we added nearly 100,000 new rooms to our global portfolio, representing full-year net unit growth of 6.7% and our biggest year of organic openings.

轉向發展。第四季度，我們開設了近 200 家飯店，總計近 26,000 間客房。全年來看，我們在全球酒店組合中新增了近 10 萬間客房，全年淨增長 6.7%，是我們有機開幕數量最多的一年。

We achieved several milestones in the year, including reaching 9,000 hotels globally, celebrating 44 brand country debuts, opening our first property in four new markets, including Tanzania, Rwanda, Pakistan, and the US Virgin Islands, and opening our 1,000th luxury and lifestyle hotel globally.

今年我們取得了多項里程碑式的成就，包括全球酒店數量達到 9,000 家，慶祝品牌在 44 個新國家/地區首次亮相，在坦尚尼亞、盧安達、巴基斯坦和美屬維京群島等四個新市場開設了第一家酒店，以及在全球開設了第 1,000 家豪華生活方式酒店。

Our luxury and lifestyle brands continue to expand around the world, comprising nearly 30% of our total openings in the quarter. Lifestyle had a strong year with all eight brands reaching record room counts and nearly all expanding their presence into new markets.

我們的奢侈品和生活風格品牌繼續在全球擴張，佔本季新店開幕總數的近 30%。Lifestyle品牌今年表現強勁，旗下所有八個品牌都創下了客房數量紀錄，幾乎所有品牌都拓展了新市場。

Within our collection brands for the full year, we opened over 11,000 rooms across 18 countries, including nine country debuts. It was a record year for Tapestry growth, opening over 40 properties in the year, including most recently the debut of Tapestry in Japan.

在過去一年中，我們旗下所有飯店品牌在 18 個國家開設了超過 11,000 間客房，其中包括 9 個首次進駐的國家。對於 Tapestry 而言，這是創紀錄的一年，一年內開設了 40 多家酒店，包括最近在日本開設的首家 Tapestry 酒店。

Within luxury, we continue to build strong momentum after the Waldorf Astoria, New York opening. And in the fourth quarter, we opened our second Waldorf Astoria in Shanghai and celebrated the brand's debut in Helsinki. Strong interest in Waldorf Astoria continued into the fourth quarter as we announced agreements to expand Waldorf Astoria into several iconic cities across Greece, Spain, Oman, and Malaysia.

在奢侈品領域，繼紐約華爾道夫酒店開業後，我們繼續保持強勁的發展勢頭。第四季度，我們在上海開設了第二家華爾道夫酒店，並在赫爾辛基慶祝了品牌的首次亮相。第四季度，人們對華爾道夫酒店的興趣依然濃厚，我們宣布了將華爾道夫酒店擴展到希臘、西班牙、阿曼和馬來西亞等多個標誌性城市的協議。

In 2025, we also expanded our LXR footprint with new openings in France and Greece and announced plans to debut the LXR in the Turks and Caicos in the next few years. Conversions remain integral to our growth and accounted for roughly 40% of room openings in 2025, demonstrating the strong value proposition our system continues to deliver for owners.

2025年，我們也擴大了LXR的業務範圍，在法國和希臘開設了新店，並宣布計劃在未來幾年內在特克斯和凱科斯群島推出LXR。轉換仍然是我們成長的重要組成部分，在 2025 年約佔客房開放量的 40%，這表明我們的系統繼續為業主帶來強大的價值。

Against this backdrop of continued owner demand for conversion-friendly brands, we have been evolving our brand portfolio and creating opportunities to build the next chapter in Hilton's growth. We recently launched Apartment Collection by Hilton, which marks Hilton's entry into the fast-growing apartment-style lodging segment that represents a clear white space in the market. As a collection brand, it provides owners with flexibility to preserve a property's unique character while benefiting from Hilton's powerful commercial engine, global distribution, and award-winning Hilton Honors loyalty program.

在業主對易於轉化的品牌持續需求的背景下，我們一直在改進我們的品牌組合，並創造機會來開啟希爾頓發展的下一個篇章。我們最近推出了希爾頓公寓精選系列，這標誌著希爾頓正式進軍快速成長的公寓式住宿領域，該領域在市場上仍是一個空白市場。作為精選品牌，它為業主提供了靈活性，既能保留酒店的獨特特色，又能受益於希爾頓強大的商業引擎、全球分銷網絡和屢獲殊榮的希爾頓榮譽客會忠誠計劃。

Apartment Collection by Hilton alongside our other newly minted brand Outset Collection will be incremental drivers of our conversion momentum in the years to come as will new brands, several of which we expect to launch later this year. Even with robust openings in the fourth quarter, our pipeline reached the highest level in our history, surpassing 520,000 rooms, reflecting both year-over-year and sequential growth, driven by expansion across strategic markets and brand categories.

希爾頓公寓精選系列以及我們新推出的品牌 Outset Collection 將成為未來幾年推動我們轉換勢頭的增量動力，其他新品牌也將如此，我們預計將在今年稍後推出其中幾個品牌。即使第四季度開業數量強勁，我們的項目儲備也達到了歷史最高水平，超過 52 萬間客房，這反映了同比增長和環比增長，主要得益於戰略市場和品牌類別的擴張。

New development construction starts in the US were up over 25% in 2025, a trend that we expect to accelerate even further into 2026. Globally, for 2026, we expect new development construction starts to be up over 20%, bringing us back close to 2019 levels, signaling healthy developer appetite.

2025 年美國新開發案開工量成長超過 25%，我們預期這一趨勢在 2026 年將進一步加速。預計到 2026 年，全球新開發案開工量將成長超過 20%，接近 2019 年的水平，這表明開發商的積極性很高。

As we look ahead, we expect that our robust global pipeline, strength in conversions, construction start momentum, and industry-leading brand premiums will support sustained net unit growth of between 6% to 7% for 2026 and beyond. We also remain focused on initiatives to drive increased loyalty, engagement, and guest satisfaction.

展望未來，我們預計，憑藉我們強大的全球項目儲備、強勁的轉換率、建設開工勢頭以及行業領先的品牌溢價，我們將在 2026 年及以後實現 6% 至 7% 的持續淨銷量增長。我們將繼續專注於各項舉措，以提高顧客忠誠度、參與度和滿意度。

In 2025, we strengthened our Hilton Honors program by making loyalty both more accessible and more rewarding by introducing a faster path to elite status and a new premium tier in our program. We also launched Hilton Honors Adventures, an extension of Hilton Honors that invites travelers to immerse themselves in bucket-list-worthy travel, elevating loyalty benefits across land and at sea. Hilton Honors Adventures partnerships now include Explora Journeys and AutoCamp, and we expect more to come as we continue to prioritize ways Honors members can earn and redeem points.

2025年，我們加強了希爾頓榮譽客會計劃，透過引入更快的精英會員資格途徑和新的高級會員等級，使忠誠度更容易獲得，也更有價值。我們還推出了希爾頓榮譽客會探險之旅，這是希爾頓榮譽客會的延伸，旨在邀請旅行者沉浸於值得體驗的旅行，提升陸地和海上忠誠度獎勵。希爾頓榮譽客會探險之旅的合作夥伴現在已經包括 Explora Journeys 和 AutoCamp，隨著我們繼續優先考慮榮譽客會會員賺取和兌換積分的方式，我們預計未來會有更多合作夥伴加入。

Overall, we continue to see extraordinary performance of Hilton Honors in 2025 with the program now approaching 0.25 billion members. During the quarter, Hilton was again named the number one World's Best Workplace by Fortune and Great Place to Work for 2025, becoming the first and only hospitality company to top both the global and the US list twice.

整體而言，我們看到希爾頓榮譽客會2025年的表現依然非常出色，該計劃的會員人數已接近2.5億。本季度，希爾頓再次被《財富》雜誌和卓越職場研究所評為 2025 年全球最佳工作場所第一名，成為第一家也是唯一一家兩次榮登全球和美國榜首的酒店公司。

Our brands continue to receive recognition as well. And in 2025, Entrepreneurs Franchise 500 extended our 17th consecutive year run with Hampton by Hilton ranking number one hotel franchise in the lodging category. In total, 12 brands were recognized in the 2025 rankings for their performance and franchise value.

我們的品牌也持續獲得認可。2025 年，《Entrepreneurs Franchise 500》雜誌連續第 17 年將 Hampton by Hilton 評為住宿類飯店特許經營第一名。2025 年排名中，共有 12 個品牌因其業績和特許經營價值而獲得認可。

Overall, we're proud of our performance in 2025 and believe our results continue to reinforce the power of our business model. Our brand-led, network-driven, and platform-enabled strategy will continue to help us achieve our robust growth trajectory and meet the evolving needs of travelers around the world while delivering great returns to owners and shareholders. We're confident that we're well positioned to continue driving strong performance in 2026 and beyond.

總的來說，我們對2025年的表現感到自豪，並相信我們的業績將繼續鞏固我們商業模式的優勢。我們以品牌為主導、以網路為驅動、以平台為支撐的策略將繼續幫助我們實現強勁的成長勢頭，滿足世界各地旅客不斷變化的需求，同時為所有者和股東帶來豐厚的回報。我們有信心，我們已做好充分準備，在 2026 年及以後繼續保持強勁的業績成長。

Now I'm going to turn the call over to Kevin, who will give you a few more details on the quarter and expectations for the full year.

現在我將把電話交給凱文，他將為大家詳細介紹本季的業績以及對全年的預期。

Thanks, Chris, and good morning, everyone. During the quarter, system-wide RevPAR increased 50 basis points versus the prior year on a comparable and currency-neutral basis. Growth was driven by strong international performance and solid group demand.

謝謝克里斯，大家早安。本季度，以可比口徑和匯率中性計算，系統每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 比上年同期增長 50 個基點。成長主要得益於強勁的國際市場表現和穩健的集團市場需求。

Adjusted EBITDA was $946 million in the fourth quarter, up 10% year-over-year and exceeding the high end of our guidance range. Our performance was predominantly driven by strong performance in EMEA, non-RevPAR-driven fees, and continued disciplined cost control. Management and franchise fees grew 7.4% year-over-year. For the quarter, diluted earnings per share adjusted for special items was $2.08.

第四季調整後 EBITDA 為 9.46 億美元，年成長 10%，超過了我們預期範圍的上限。我們的業績主要得益於 EMEA 地區的強勁表現、非 RevPAR 驅動的費用以及持續嚴格的成本控制。管理費和加盟費年增 7.4%。本季經特殊項目調整後的稀釋每股收益為 2.08 美元。

Turning to our regional performance. Fourth-quarter comparable US RevPAR decreased 1.6%, largely driven by pressure across business transient and group, which underperformed expectations due to the prolonged government shutdown. For full-year 2026, we expect US RevPAR growth towards the low end of our 2026 system-wide guidance.

接下來談談我們區域內的表現。第四季美國可比RevPAR下降1.6%，主因是商務散客及團體業務承壓，由於政府長期停擺，其表現低於預期。對於 2026 年全年，我們預計美國 RevPAR 成長將接近我們 2026 年系統整體指引值的低端。

In the Americas outside the US, fourth quarter RevPAR increased 3.8% year-over-year, driven by strong demand in both leisure and group segments. For full-year 2026, we expect RevPAR growth to be in the low single digits.

在美國以外的美洲地區，第四季每間可供出租客房收入年增 3.8%，這主要得益於休閒和團體市場的強勁需求。我們預計 2026 年全年每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 的成長將處於個位數低點。

In Europe, RevPAR grew 5.3% year-over-year, led by strong leisure activity in Continental Europe due to events and holiday-driven demand. For full-year 2026, we expect low single-digit RevPAR growth in the region.

在歐洲，受歐洲大陸強勁的休閒活動（由各種活動和假日推動的需求所帶動）的推動，每間可供出租客房收入同比增長 5.3%。我們預計 2026 年全年該地區的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 將實現個位數低成長。

In the Middle East and Africa region, RevPAR increased 15.9% year-over-year, driven by strength in leisure and group demand due to major events. For full-year 2026, we expect RevPAR growth in the mid-single-digit range.

在中東和非洲地區，受重大活動帶來的休閒和團體需求強勁推動，每間可供出租客房收入年增 15.9%。我們預計 2026 年全年每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 成長率將達到中等個位數。

In the Asia Pacific region, fourth-quarter RevPAR was up 9.2% in APAC ex China, led by growth in Australasia from major events and strength in Japan and South Korea. RevPAR in China declined 1.4% in the quarter, an improvement to prior quarters, but remained constrained by weaker group demand due to the government travel policy. For full-year 2026, we expect RevPAR growth in Asia Pacific to be in the low single digits with RevPAR roughly flat in China.

在亞太地區，除中國以外的亞太地區第四季每間可供出租客房收入成長了 9.2%，這主要得益於澳洲和紐西蘭的重大活動以及日本和韓國的強勁表現。中國市場的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）本季下降了1.4%，較前幾個季度有所改善，但由於政府旅遊政策導致團體需求疲軟，市場仍然受到限制。我們預計 2026 年全年亞太地區的 RevPAR 成長率將處於個位數低位，而中國的 RevPAR 將基本持平。

Turning to development. As Chris mentioned, for the quarter, we grew net units 6.7% and now have more than 520,000 rooms in our pipeline. We continue to have more rooms under construction than any other hotel company with approximately one in every five hotel rooms under construction globally slated to join the Hilton portfolio. We expect to deliver 6% to 7% net unit growth for the full year.

轉向發展。正如克里斯所提到的，本季我們的淨單元數增加了 6.7%，目前我們有超過 52 萬間客房正在籌建中。我們目前正在建造的客房數量仍超過其他任何一家酒店公司，全球在建酒店客房中約有五分之一計劃加入希爾頓酒店集團。我們預計全年淨銷量成長6%至7%。

Moving to guidance. For the first quarter, we expect system-wide RevPAR growth to be between 1% and 2%. We expect adjusted EBITDA to be between $875 million and $895 million, and diluted EPS adjusted for special items to be between $1.91 and $1.97.

進入指導環節。我們預計第一季系統整體RevPAR成長將在1%至2%之間。我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 將在 8.75 億美元至 8.95 億美元之間，經特殊項目調整後的稀釋每股收益將在 1.91 美元至 1.97 美元之間。

For the full year, we expect RevPAR growth of 1% to 2%, adjusted EBITDA of between $4 billion and $4.04 billion, and a diluted EPS adjusted for special items of between $8.65 and $8.77. Please note that our guidance ranges do not incorporate future share repurchases.

我們預計全年每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）增長1%至2%，調整後EBITDA在40億美元至40.4億美元之間，經特殊項目調整後的稀釋每股收益在8.65美元至8.77美元之間。請注意，我們的業績指引範圍不包括未來的股票回購。

Moving on to capital return. We paid a cash dividend of $0.15 per share during the fourth quarter, bringing dividends to a total of $143 million for 2025. Our Board also authorized a quarterly dividend of $0.15 per share.

接下來討論資本回報。我們在第四季度支付了每股 0.15 美元的現金股息，使 2025 年的股息總額達到 1.43 億美元。董事會也批准了每股0.15美元的季度股息。

For 2026, we expect to return approximately $3.5 billion to shareholders in the form of buybacks and dividends. Further details on our fourth-quarter and full-year results can be found in the earnings release we issued earlier this morning.

預計到 2026 年，我們將以股票回購和分紅的形式向股東返還約 35 億美元。有關我們第四季度和全年業績的更多詳情，請參閱我們今天早上發布的盈利報告。

This completes our prepared remarks. We would now like to open the line for any questions you may have. We would like to speak with as many of you as possible so we ask that you limit yourself to one question. Chuck, can we have our first question, please?

我們的發言稿到此結束。現在我們開通提問專線，歡迎大家踴躍提問。我們希望盡可能與大家交流，所以請每位提問者只提一個問題。查克，我們可以問第一個問題嗎？

Shaun Kelley, Bank of America.

肖恩凱利，美國銀行。

Chris, I would love to start with you, both in the prepared remarks and overall sound a bit more optimistic. So we always value your overview of where we sit with the broader economy and the lodging industry. If you could just give us your latest thinking there? And maybe specifically a few thoughts around the business transient environment, particularly large versus small corporate. I think on the smaller or medium size, we've seen some weakness.

克里斯，我希望你能先發言，無論是在準備好的發言稿中，還是在整體表達上，你都應該顯得更加樂觀。因此，我們始終重視您對我們在整體經濟和住宿行業中所處位置的概述。如果您能把您最新的想法告訴我們就好了？或許還可以具體談談商業環境的瞬息萬變，特別是大型企業與小型企業之間的差異。我認為在中小規模領域，我們已經看到了一些疲軟的跡象。

Wondering what you think about that as we turn the page into 2026.

想知道大家對即將到來的2026年有什麼看法。

Yes. Great question. And obviously, probably what's the #1 thing on everybody's mind. So a lot of this I covered on our last call and as I've talked to individual investors have shared these thoughts. But if you think back about what I said on the third quarter call, I was reasonably optimistic about '25 being a decent year, but '26 and frankly, beyond, at least for the next couple of years, being better.

是的。問得好。顯然，這可能是大家最關心的事。上次電話會議我談到了很多這方面的內容，而且我和一些投資者交流後，他們也表達了類似的看法。但如果你回想一下我在第三季電話會議上所說的話，我對 2025 年是一個不錯的年份持相當樂觀的態度，但坦白說，2026 年以及以後，至少在接下來的幾年裡，情況會更好。

And my underpinning of that, which I still believe is that you have some macro forces and some micro forces that are converging in a really positive way.

而我對此的根本原因，我仍然相信，是宏觀力量和微觀力量正在以非常積極的方式匯聚。

Number one being inflation does structurally continue to come down. If you really factored for the lag effect of the housing input, which is over 30% of the contribution to the inflation numbers and you factor what it is real time, I would argue it's actually lower than is being reported. So that's a good trend. What does that mean? That means expectation, which I believe that rates will continue to come down, which will be stimulative and positive in a bunch of ways.

第一點是，通貨膨脹率確實在結構性地持續下降。如果真正考慮到住房投入的滯後效應（住房投入對通膨數據的貢獻超過 30%），並考慮其實時性，我認為實際通膨率低於報道的數字。所以這是一個好趨勢。這意味著什麼？這意味著人們預期利率將繼續下降，我相信這將在許多方面起到刺激和積極作用。

You see it this week and broadly, you're in a very big deregulatory environment under -- in the United States under this administration, which is obviously, I think, a real positive in a bunch of different ways, whether that's financial services, energy, AI, the basic infrastructure reshoring.

你本週就能看到，總的來說，美國正處於本屆政府領導下的大規模放鬆管制環境，這顯然在許多方面都是非常積極的，無論是金融服務、能源、人工智慧，還是基礎設施回流。

There is a massive amount that is going on. You have fixed tax policy that got done last year that is just -- that is super business favorable and investment favorable, and you expect to see that start to benefit. And then a massive investment cycle, the obvious being like the AI complex. I mean just the major tech companies in the last two weeks alone, I think when I finished adding it up, they are going to spend this year $700 billion. So let's just say there's going to be a lot more than $1 trillion spent on that by that complex, all of the energy that goes along with it, everything around the AI complex, I think, is huge.

現在發生了很多事情。你們去年制定的稅收政策非常有利於商業和投資，你們預計這將開始帶來好處。然後就是一輪大規模的投資週期，最明顯的例子就是人工智慧領域。我的意思是，光是過去兩週，主要科技公司就花了7000億美元。所以，我們可以說，人工智慧綜合體在這方面的花費將遠遠超過 1 兆美元，所有與之相關的能源，以及圍繞人工智慧綜合體的方方面面，我認為都是巨大的。

But then the other things going on more quietly are reshoring, whether that's in rare earth minerals and pharma, CHIPS, all of that stuff is going on. I mean the CHIPS Act that got passed during the Biden administration, very little of that money has been spent. And then you have core infrastructure where we approved -- Congress approved $1.6 trillion when you add up all the pieces. Again, a very small part of which has been invested at this point. And so like when I talked in the third quarter, I said like intellectually, it's really hard for me not to be -- when I lift up above the noise of day-to-day politics to not feel like those things are going to be really good for the economy, and it's undeniable.

但同時，其他一些事情也在悄悄發生，例如製造業回流，無論是稀土礦物、製藥或晶片等產業都在進行類似的轉移。我的意思是，拜登政府時期通過的《兒童健康保險流通與責任法案》（CHIPS Act），其中的資金很少被使用。然後是核心基礎設施，我們已經批准了——國會批准了1.6兆美元，把所有項目加起來就是這個數字。再次強調，目前為止，只有極小一部分資金投入其中。所以就像我在第三季講話時說的那樣，從理智上講，當我超越日常政治的喧囂時，我很難不覺得這些事情對經濟真的很有好處，這是不容否認的。

But at the same time, I said, I don't know exactly when it's going to come. And at that point, we were not seeing a whole lot of evidence that, that was seeping into the economy, although I was very confident, as you remember, that it would. By the way, the other thing going on is we're at the beginning of like one of the greatest productivity booms in American history with the whole AI complex, once those investments get done and over the next several years of adoption, you have massive opportunities on productivity. My belief then and now was that we will have economic growth picking up and most importantly, because it impacts our business, that it would be broader-based economic growth.

但同時，我說，我不知道它究竟什麼時候會到來。當時，我們並沒有看到太多證據顯示這種情況正在滲透到經濟中，儘管你也記得，我當時非常有信心這種情況會改變。順便說一句，另一件事是，隨著整個人工智慧體系的崛起，我們正處於美國歷史上最偉大的生產力繁榮時期之一的開端。一旦這些投資完成，並在未來幾年廣泛應用，生產力將迎來巨大的提升。我當時和現在都相信，經濟成長將會加速，最重要的是，因為這會影響我們的業務，我認為這將是更廣泛的經濟成長。

It would not be as much this K-economy where the very high end, the very wealthy keep doing well and the middle class and below continue to struggle to pay for groceries and gas and their utilities, but that you would start to ultimately -- because the middle class has to be involved to make all this happen, particularly the investment side that you would start to enter a world where you would see middle class real wage growth. By the way, I think right now, you're starting to see the first prints of middle class real wage growth that means people have more disposable income and they will be spending more money, including on our products.

這就不再是那種只有最富裕的階層繼續過得很好，而中產階級及以下階層繼續掙扎著支付食品雜貨、汽油和水電費的K型經濟了，而是最終——因為中產階級必須參與其中才能實現這一切，尤其是在投資方面——你會開始進入一個中產階級實際工資增長的世界。順便說一句，我認為現在，你開始看到中產階級實際薪資成長的初步跡象，這意味著人們有了更多的可支配收入，他們會花更多的錢，包括購買我們的產品。

And when you really get down to it, the bulk of our system, I think everybody's system is more concentrated because the middle class is the biggest percentage of the population in the mid-market. And so that's what I thought last quarter. That's what I think now. The only difference I would say is that we're starting to see it. Now I'm going to be really honest that -- and it's obvious.

歸根究底，我認為我們整個體系的大部分，乃至所有人的體系，都更加集中，因為中產階級在中端市場人口中所佔比例最大。所以，這就是我上個季度的想法。我現在也是這麼想的。唯一的區別在於，我們已經開始看到這種情況了。現在我要非常坦誠地說——這一點顯而易見。

So I should be honest, which is we don't -- the data sets that I'm looking at are not months and months, quarters and quarters. What I'm really looking at, as I said a little bit when we talked about December is the end of the year got a lot better than we thought. And even with the storms, the beginning of this year has been better and it's been better in the ways we'd want to see it. So what does that mean? That means mid-scale, upper mid-scale, it means midweek, it means business transient to your question, Shaun, we're seeing a meaningful change from what we were seeing earlier in the fourth quarter and certainly in the third quarter.

所以我應該坦白地說，我們沒有——我正在查看的數據集不是按月或按季度計算的。正如我之前在談到十二月時提到的，我真正關注的是，年底的情況比我們預想的要好得多。即使經歷了暴風雨，今年的開局也比往年好，而且好的方向也更符合我們的預期。那這意味著什麼？這意味著中等規模、中上規模，意味著周中，意味著業務流動性。至於你的問題，肖恩，我們看到的情況與第四季度早些時候以及第三季度相比發生了顯著變化。

Whether that's sustainable or not, I don't know, but it feels to me if all of the other macro conditions that I was talking about, if those continue to develop, it has to be the beginning of a trend. By the way, the other thing, it's not macro, it's micro, but I said micro is we have a bunch of like benefits this year, which you guys are aware of. Number one, the comps, as I said, are easier because, I mean, you could have other things happen, but Liberation Day was a pretty big deal and the biggest government shutdown in American history was a pretty big deal. You hopefully don't repeat those at that scale. And we have a bunch of unique events, which you're well aware of with the World Cup, America's 250 that are really stimulative to travel.

我不知道這是否可持續，但我覺得，如果我剛才提到的所有其他宏觀條件繼續發展下去，那一定是某種趨勢的開始。順便說一下，還有一件事，雖然不是宏觀的，而是微觀的，但我說的是微觀層面，那就是我們今年有很多福利，你們都知道。第一，正如我所說，比較起來更容易，因為，我的意思是，可能會發生其他事情，但解放日是一件大事，美國歷史上最大規模的政府停擺也是一件大事。希望你不會再以那種規模重蹈覆轍。我們有許多獨特的賽事，像是世界盃、美洲盃250週年紀念賽等等，這些賽事都非常能刺激人們出行。

At the same time, all these other things are going on.

同時，其他很多事情也在發生​​。

And so I -- yes, we're at the beginning, I think, of a trend. We have to get more data and like see it really continue. But I like what I'm seeing right now. And as a result, you saw in our guidance that we think that '26, as I had thought last quarter, will be a lot better than '25. And I think we have very solid underpinnings to back that up.

所以——是的，我認為我們正處於一個趨勢的開端。我們需要獲取更多數據，並希望看到它真正持續下去。但我喜歡我現在看到的。因此，正如我們上個季度所預測的那樣，我們認為 2026 年將比 2025 年好得多。我認為我們有非常堅實的基礎來支撐這一點。

And in the first quarter, by the way, in the guidance we're giving, super solid. I mean at this point, we're halfway through the quarter. We have very good sight lines into the rest of February and even into March, and it feels good in all the ways I just described. So yes, that's the reason for my increased optimism is data that I'm actually able to see data that says what I hoped and thought would happen is starting to happen and hopefully is sustainable.

順便說一句，我們給出的第一季業績預期非常穩健。我的意思是，現在已經過半個季度了。我們對二月剩餘時間甚至三月的天氣都有非常好的預期，這感覺就像我剛剛描述的那樣美好。所以，是的，我樂觀情緒上升的原因是，我實際看到的數據表明，我希望和認為會發生的事情正在開始發生，並且希望這種趨勢能夠持續下去。

Dan Politzer, JPMorgan.

丹‧波利策，摩根大通。

You touched on this a bit, but maybe in a different lens. The AI and technology front, I mean, this continues to obviously evolve at a very rapid pace. So I guess the question is, how close are you to maybe announcing some partnerships there if that's on the horizon? And then how do you think about the opportunity set here, both from the OpEx side internally and then externally from a revenue side in terms of distribution?

你之前也稍微提到過這一點，但或許是從不同的角度出發。人工智慧和技術領域，我的意思是，它顯然仍在以非常快的速度發展。所以我想問的是，如果未來有這方面的合作計劃，你們距離宣布合作還有多遠？那麼，您如何看待這裡的機會，包括內部營運支出方面的機會，以及外部收入方面（例如分銷）的機會？

Yes. I mean I -- we talked a lot about this, I think, on the last call, too, and I suspect we'll be talking about this on every single call because obviously, it's important. And as you can imagine, we're spending a huge amount of time on AI throughout our whole organization. And one of the things that I believe gives us a meaningful competitive advantage is that we have a modern tech stack. And relative to our competitive environment, I don't think anybody can claim what we can claim.

是的。我的意思是，我們上次通話時也談了很多關於這件事，我想，而且我懷疑我們每次通話都會談到這件事，因為很明顯，這很重要。正如你所想，我們整個組織都在人工智慧方面投入大量時間。我認為，賦予我們實質競爭優勢的因素之一是我們擁有現代化的技術棧。就我們所處的競爭環境而言，我認為沒有人能像我們一樣擁有如此成就。

And what is that -- it's not me just pounding my chest. It just affords us much greater flexibility and agility to adopt AI in a bunch of really interesting ways.

那是什麼？ ——我可不是在搥胸頓足。它賦予我們更大的靈活性和敏捷性，讓我們以許多非常有趣的方式採用人工智慧。

And so you can imagine we're exploring all those. As I said last time, there's 3 big buckets of things. The first is just like creating efficiencies in the system. Some of that could benefit G&A. By the way, you've seen some of the benefits.

所以你可以想像，我們正在探索所有這些方面。正如我上次所說，這裡有三大類事物。第一種方法就像是在系統中創造效率。其中一部分可能有利於一般及行政費用。順便說一句，你已經看到了它的一些好處。

I mean our G&A is lower than it was 6, 7 years ago, and that's not all AI, but part of it is process reimagination, making ourselves better, applying the use of technology in ways. We've been doing that forever. And AI is just another amazing tool that allows us to speed -- speed some of that up. And so we're looking at tons of things like hotel openings is one that our teams are deep in the middle of like so many people touch the process of opening a hotel, dozens and dozens like creating massive efficiency around connecting all those dots.

我的意思是，我們的管理費用比 6、7 年前低了，這雖然不全是人工智慧的功勞，但部分原因在於流程的重新構想，讓我們變得更好，以及以各種方式應用科技。我們一直都是這麼做的。人工智慧是另一個了不起的工具，它可以幫助我們加快某些事情的速度。因此，我們正在研究很多事情，例如酒店開業，我們的團隊正深入研究其中一項，因為開業過程涉及很多人，幾十個人，我們需要在連接所有這些環節方面創造巨大的效率。

And we have dozens of other use cases in that area. And then there's the whole distribution space, which is the crux of your question. We tend not to make big announcements until we've done things. And so we're working with many of all the -- of the big players out there, the OpenAI, Google, we're working with all of them. We're part -- not but the big ones that are big in the travel or trying to -- either are or trying to be.

我們在該領域還有幾十個其他應用案例。然後還有整個分佈空間，這正是你問題的關鍵。我們通常不會在事情做完之前就發布重大公告。因此，我們正在與許多大型企業合作，例如 OpenAI、Google等等，我們正在與他們合作。我們是其中的一部分——不是，而是那些在旅遊業中舉足輕重或試圖舉足輕重的人——要么是，要么正在努力成為。

We're involved in all of their tests, and we're developing the connectivity with those platforms, and I'm super optimistic about that.

我們參與了他們所有的測試，並且正在開發與這些平台的連接，對此我非常樂觀。

We're also -- because we have a very modern tech stack, doing some really interesting things in natural search connected to booking and the experience within our own platforms, some of which you'll start to see probably at some point in the second quarter, which I think are really cool. My own view on the distribution space is quite -- I said -- probably said this last time is simple, like we believe we have the best products, deliver the best service with the best culture, our loyalty that continues to be super relevant and that customers want what we do because we're good at it. We do a good job.

因為我們擁有非常現代化的技術棧，所以我們正在自然搜尋領域做一些非常有趣的事情，這些事情與預訂以及我們自己的平台內的體驗相關，其中一些事情你可能會在第二季度的某個時候開始看到，我認為這些事情真的很酷。我對分銷領域的看法相當——我上次說過——可能也說過，很簡單，就像我們相信我們擁有最好的產品，提供最好的服務和最好的企業文化，我們的忠誠度仍然非常重要，客戶想要我們所做的一切是因為我們擅長。我們做得很好。

Like if you look at the hard data, market share, review site index, we perform really well. Customers want to find us. We believe that what's going on with AI is spectacular. There's always risk, by the way. Like I'm not -- I don't have my head in the sand nor does anybody here.

如果你看看硬數據，例如市場佔有率、評論網站排名，你會發現我們表現得非常好。顧客想要找到我們。我們認為人工智慧的發展前景非常廣闊。順便說一句，風險總是存在的。就像我不是那樣──我沒有把頭埋在沙子裡，這裡也沒有人是那樣。

But I think in our space, which is very hard to disintermediate because it's a physical business, the opportunities are far greater, both in distribution and otherwise than the risks are. And why? Because if we keep doing a really good job the way we do it and customers want our stuff, they're going to be able to find our stuff in what will be, frankly, a more competitive environment that we've seen here tofore, and they'll be able to find it in a way that's easier with less friction and it's more efficient.

但我認為，在我們這個很難去中間化的領域（因為它是實體業務），無論是在分銷方面還是其他方面，機會都遠大於風險。為什麼？因為如果我們繼續以我們現在的方式做好工作，而客戶又想要我們的產品，那麼坦白說，他們將能夠在比以往更加激烈的競爭環境中找到我們的產品，而且他們將能夠以更輕鬆、更順暢、更有效率的方式找到它。

And so my belief is this is a pathway to lower distribution cost broadly for our owner community if we're smart. Never forgetting that the one thing at our scale, I mean, look at the US alone, we're 13-plus percent of the market. If you look at the quality market, no offense to the whole market, we're probably -- we're well over 20% of the market. We have complete control over rate, inventory, pricing, availability.

因此，我認為如果我們夠聰明，這將是降低我們業主群體整體分銷成本的一條途徑。永遠不要忘記，以我們的規模來說，有一件事至關重要，我的意思是，看看美國，我們佔了超過 13% 的市場份額。如果你看看優質產品市場，無意冒犯整個市場，我們可能會——我們佔據了超過 20% 的市場。我們完全掌控著價格、庫存、定價和供貨情況。

And if we don't want to share it, nobody can get it and we have products that people want. I view that as super valuable. So as we think about how we engage with everybody in this space, and we are, as I said, already engaged in all the ways you would think with the big players.

如果我們不想分享，那就沒人能得到，而我們卻有人們想要的產品。我認為這非常有價值。所以，當我們思考如何與這個領域的每個人互動時，正如我所說，我們已經以你能想到的所有方式與大玩家互動。

I think it's a very symbiotic relationship. I think customers for them to have platforms that are in travel, they need our product. And for us to show up, we want to work with them. I think it's quite a balanced equation, as I said. I think the net result is generally good on distribution cost.

我認為這是一種非常互惠互利的關係。我認為對於那些擁有旅遊平台的客戶來說，他們需要我們的產品。而我們之所以能參與其中，是因為我們想與他們合作。我認為這是一個相當平衡的等式，正如我所說。我認為整體而言，配送成本方面結果是良好的。

The last bucket I talked about, which is super exciting, and we're doing a bunch of stuff is just the whole customer experience.

我剛才提到的最後一個方面，也是最令人興奮的方面，我們正在做很多事情，那就是整個客戶體驗。

I mean, so I talked a little bit about like the dreaming function in our own systems of being able to not just dream and natural search and AI enabled, but then have it be seamless to booking, have it then be seamless to prearrival and planning your stay on property experience, problem resolution, post stay, you think about with the use of AI, the data, the tools that we already have and that we're building out in a much more fulsome way with a fully modern tech stack that we can put so much where we have an experience with our customers that is digital with AI and with our platform, we can really revolutionize how customers interact with us.

我的意思是，我剛才稍微談到了我們系統中的夢想功能，它不僅能夠實現夢想、自然搜尋和人工智慧賦能，還能無縫銜接到預訂、入住前規劃、酒店體驗、問題解決、入住後等環節。想想看，利用人工智慧、數據和我們現有的工具，以及我們正在建構的更完善的現代化技術堆疊，我們可以將很多東西融入到我們與客戶互動的數位化體驗中，透過人工智慧和我們的平台，我們能夠真正革新客戶與我們互動的方式。

And then we're at the physical side of it, we have the ability to create tools, and we are doing it that enable our teams to have so much more information for people to plan their stay, on property, problem resolution, et cetera, that I think it's really, really game changing. And we've been -- I'm not going to get into everything we're doing. Obviously, it's competitively sensitive, but we're doing a whole bunch of stuff. We have, I don't know, 40 use cases plus and growing in all of those buckets around AI, working with a bunch of great partners, many of the names that you read about in the news every single day and have super close engagement. And I feel really -- listen, we're in the early days of AI like for sure.

然後，在實際操作層面，我們有能力創造工具，而且我們正在這樣做，使我們的團隊能夠獲得更多信息，以便人們規劃他們的住宿、在酒店內的活動、解決問題等等，我認為這真的具有顛覆性意義。我們一直在——我就不一一贅述我們正在做的所有事情了。顯然，這涉及競爭問題，但我們正在做很多事情。我們有，我不知道，40 多個用例，而且在人工智慧的各個領域都在不斷增長，我們與許多優秀的合作夥伴合作，其中許多都是你每天在新聞中都能看到的名字，我們與他們保持著非常密切的聯繫。我覺得──聽著，我們肯定還處於人工智慧的早期階段。

But I feel like we're in a really good position based on the platform, the efforts we're making and progress we're making as this evolves.

但我覺得，基於我們目前的平台、我們所做的努力以及隨著事態發展而取得的進展，我們處於非常有利的地位。

David Katz, Jefferies.

David Katz，傑富瑞集團。

Noting in the press release and what you talked about with the outsized amount of investments going toward lifestyle and luxury and some of the commentary this morning, I'm wondering whether the -- both the duration and the economic intensity of those contracts continues to grow over time. And whether there is an acceleration in trajectory as more and more of those rooms come online. We're obviously looking at fees and cash flow, et cetera, the output of the NUG, but I'd love some further insight there.

注意到新聞稿中提到的大量投資流向生活方式和奢侈品，以及今天早上的一些評論，我想知道這些合約的期限和經濟強度是否會隨著時間的推移而繼續增長。隨著越來越多的房間投入使用，這種趨勢是否會加速發展？我們顯然在關注費用和現金流等 NUG 的產出，但我很想對此有更深入的了解。

Yes. I think I understand the question. I'm not 100% sure I do. But I think the basic question is, as you now have 1,000 hotels and it's becoming a real business and each of the individual brands within the category, which is 8 brands start to get scale and momentum, they feed on themselves in the sense of delivering -- as they build out a network, they build market share even higher, as they build market share even higher, they get adopted by more and more owners and ultimately, the economic model starts -- the flywheel starts spinning.

是的。我想我明白這個問題了。我不太確定我是否真的有。但我認為根本問題在於，現在你們擁有 1000 家酒店，它正在成為一項真正的業務，而該類別中的每個品牌（即 8 個品牌）都開始獲得規模和發展勢頭，它們在交付方面相互促進——隨著它們建立網絡，它們的市場份額會進一步提高，隨著市場份額的進一步提高，它們會被越來越多的業主啟動，最終，經濟開始轉動。

I think you're right, yes. So many of these brands, while we have 1,000 hotels in luxury and lifestyle, it's a lot of hotels. I mean -- but still we have 9,400 and change. We're open 2 or 3 a day. So I always lose track.

我想你是對的。這些品牌很多，雖然我們有 1000 家豪華和生活方式酒店，但這仍然是一個很大的數字。我的意思是——但我們仍然有 9400 多。我們一天營業兩到三小時。所以我總是記不清。

It's still a relatively smaller percentage. And many of the brands, you can think of like Tempo and Motto and even Canopy that are doing really well, they're very -- they're still graduate for that matter. They're still relatively small brands, even though they're performing well.

這仍然是一個相對較小的比例。很多品牌，像是 Tempo、Motto 甚至 Canopy，它們發展得都非常好，但它們其實都還處於起步階段。儘管這些品牌表現良好，但它們仍然是相對較小的品牌。

And so yes, I do believe, like we've seen in every other brand, and it won't be different, particularly in lifestyle. Luxury is a little bit different game, but in the lifestyle categories, as you start to build these out and create real network effect, you hear me say network effect a lot in a broader context, but in a more micro context within individual brands, that customers ascribe meaning to, if you don't have enough locations, it's hard to serve their needs. And the more you build that network effect, it does have an effect of creating -- of spinning the flywheel faster.

所以，是的，我相信，就像我們在其他所有品牌中看到的那樣，這種情況不會例外，尤其是在生活方式領域。奢侈品行業的情況略有不同，但在生活方式類別中，當你開始構建這些類別並創造真正的網絡效應時（你會經常聽到我談論網絡效應，通常是在更廣泛的背景下，但在更微觀的背景下，在顧客賦予意義的各個品牌中），如果你沒有足夠的門店，就很難滿足他們的需求。而且，你越是建立起這種網路效應，它就越能產生作用——讓飛輪轉得更快。

So I think a bunch of those brands are early days and getting ready to really explode. Certainly, some of the ones that have larger footprint potential like Tempo and Motto. And that's why we're looking in that space at a brand between, which I've talked about in between Motto and Canopy because we think it has a TAM that is very large. Luxury, listen, we're doing -- I mean, we've got -- in terms of dots on the map at this point, we've got like 600 dots on the map, 650, I think, close to that as of today. We've got another 100 plus in the pipeline.

所以我認為這些品牌大多還處於起步階段，即將迎來爆炸性成長。當然，像 Tempo 和 Motto 這樣具有更大發展潛力的品牌也包括在內。這就是為什麼我們在這個領域尋找介於 Motto 和 Canopy 之間的品牌，我之前提到過，因為我們認為它的潛在市場非常大。奢侈品，聽著，我們正在做的——我的意思是，就目前地圖上的點數而言，我們大概有 600 個點，或者 650 個，我想，截至今天，差不多是這個數字。我們還有100多個項目正在籌備中。

I mean the Waldorf Astoria New York opening was magical. I know some of you were there and hopefully, you enjoyed it.

我的意思是，紐約華爾道夫酒店的開幕簡直太美妙了。我知道你們當中有些人當時也在場，希望你們玩得開心。

And that's the GrandDom that started the whole brand. And so while it's one hotel, it makes a big difference. If you look at the openings, I noted a few of them that we had over the last year. If you think about the openings we're going to have this year and you look at the pipeline, like Waldorf is on the move, like Waldorf is -- it takes time. Luxury is a hard space.

這就是 GrandDom 創立整個品牌的始祖。所以，雖然只是一家酒店，但卻產生了很大的影響。如果你看一下招聘信息，我注意到過去一年裡我們有一些職位空缺。想想我們今年將要開放的職位，再看看人才儲備，例如華爾道夫正在發展，就像華爾道夫一樣——這需要時間。奢侈品領域競爭激烈。

It takes time. It was one of the first things I got here 18 years ago, and I remember saying to John Gray, we got to really get luxury, right. And we had like basically one Waldorf Astoria. And here we are today with open and in the pipeline close to 100 of them.

這需要時間。這是我 18 年前來到這裡後最早買到的東西之一，我記得當時我對約翰·格雷說，我們得真正享受一下奢華，對吧。我們當時基本上只有一家華爾道夫酒店。如今，我們已經有近 100 個專案正在籌備或已經開工。

So we have good things going on with Conrad, LXR. I mentioned that in the prepared comments. So I feel super good about what's going -- I mean, I think from a loyalty point of view, we have as many dots on the map as anybody in the products that if I look at redemption behavior, our customers are really loving, particularly with the SLH relationship. And then I look at our core -- the core 3 brands we have in luxury, they're performing well. Their pipeline is spectacular.

所以，我們和 Conrad、LXR 之間進展順利。我在準備好的評論中提到了這一點。所以我對目前的情況感覺非常好——我的意思是，從忠誠度的角度來看，我們的產品數量和任何其他產品一樣多，如果我看一下兌換行為，我們的客戶真的很喜歡，特別是與 SLH 的關係。然後我看了看我們的核心品牌——我們在奢侈品領域的核心3個品牌，它們的表現都很好。他們的管道系統非常壯觀。

Growth rate looks really, really good over the next few years.

未來幾年的成長前景看起來真的非常好。

So we're getting momentum across all of them, where when you wake up in 10 years, I think it's like by volume and numbers and economics, it will be the upper mid-market, lower, upper upscale market where you're going to have the most action just because that's where the largest segment of customers is. And then the others, we'll do great, but the volume ends up where you would think it would end up. It ends up where the population demographically is.

所以我們在各個領域都獲得了發展勢頭，我認為10年後，從銷售、數量和經濟效益來看，中高端市場、低端市場和高端市場將會是最活躍的市場，因為那裡聚集了最大的客戶群。至於其他方面，我們會做得很好，但最終的銷售會達到你預想的水平。最終，人口分佈會趨於穩定。

Stephen Grambling, Morgan Stanley.

史蒂芬‧格林布林，摩根士丹利。

Maybe another angle on NUG. You've been able to build, as you said, a best-in-class pipeline while just as importantly, keeping CapEx and key money effectively flat in the guidance. So I'd love to get your latest thoughts on how the overall development environment is changing, both in terms of competition and then also the use of key money as rates and liquidity are improving. And any thoughts on the balance of new development versus conversions from here?

或許可以從另一個角度來看NUG。正如您所說，您已經建立了一流的產品線，同時同樣重要的是，在預期中保持了資本支出和關鍵資金的有效平衡。因此，我很想了解您對整體發展環境變化的最新看法，包括競爭方面的變化，以及隨著利率和流動性的改善，關鍵資金的使用情況。那麼，對於未來新建案與改建專案的平衡，您有什麼看法？

Yes, I'll start and maybe Kevin will finish whatever I miss. Listen, we have been really disciplined. I say it every time about key money. I mean if you look at the broader market, key money is definitely edged up. But if you look at our numbers, like rooms under construction, the percentage of deals that have key money is like 9%, hasn't really changed a lot.

是的，我會先開始，也許凱文會幫我完成我沒做完的部分。聽著，我們一直都很自律。我每次談到關鍵資金時都會這麼說。我的意思是，如果你看看整個市場，關鍵資金肯定有所增加。但如果你看一下我們的數據，例如在建房間，有訂金的交易比例大約是 9%，並沒有太大變化。

If you look at the average, we're saying a couple of hundred million this year. Our average over the last bunch of years. It goes up, it goes down a couple of years ago, we were $100 million last year, we were a little high.

如果以平均值來看，我們估計今年會有幾億。過去幾年的平均水準。幾年前，它有漲有跌，去年我們達到了 1 億美元，當時有點高。

I mean it has averaged plus or minus a couple of hundred million. And if you look at the types of deals that we're doing, like last, I look at the data, I think it's 85% or 90% are in the upper upscale or above in terms of where we utilize key money. So we are -- and that's where it's always been the more complicated, bigger full-service convention and luxury. That's where historically, there's been more demand for key money to get deals done. It's much more competitive, and that's still where we see it.

我的意思是，它的平均波動幅度在幾億左右。如果你看看我們正在進行的交易類型，例如上次，我查看了數據，我認為 85% 或 90% 的交易都屬於高端或更高級別，這反映了我們使用關鍵資金的程度。所以，我們一直都是這樣——而且一直以來，更複雜、規模更大、全方位服務的會議和豪華場所都屬於這一類。從歷史上看，正是在這些地方，對關鍵資金的需求更大，才能促成交易。競爭更加激烈，我們仍然看到這種情況。

I mean, is there -- has it creeped in a little bit? Yes. But listen, when it comes down to it, like we think our brands perform better.

我的意思是，它是不是──是不是已經悄悄滲透進來了？是的。但聽著，歸根結底，我們認為我們的品牌表現更好。

And a little bit of key money versus a lot of market share, we think, is a bad trade for most owners. And we do -- we -- our teams are well equipped to discuss that trade-off. But in the end, owners as you are as buyers of the stock are trying to make money and they're ultimately going to, I think, evaluate -- most owners are going to evaluate that trade-off in a rational way. So we feel good about our ability to keep doing what we're doing. It's not without some pressures and market dynamics.

我們認為，對於大多數所有者來說，用少量關鍵資金換取大量市場份額是一筆糟糕的交易。我們確實－我們的團隊完全有能力討論這種權衡取捨。但歸根結底，作為股票買家的所有者都想賺錢，他們最終會——我認為——大多數所有者都會以理性的方式評估這種權衡。所以我們對繼續做好我們正在做的事情的能力感到滿意。當然，這也會帶來一些壓力和市場動態。

But if we keep delivering profitability the way we are, I feel good about it.

但如果我們能繼續保持目前的獲利水平，我覺得一切都會很順利。

In terms of conversions, I think maybe the only thing I missed, obviously, last year was a big number of 40%. We tend to see in more challenging environments, those numbers -- the numbers go up. That's a standard thing, which wouldn't be surprising. Now at the same time, we have a lot more shots on goal. We've been adding brands.

就轉換率而言，我認為去年我唯一錯過的顯然是 40% 這個大數字。我們往往會在更具挑戰性的環境中看到這些數字——這些數字會上升。這是很正常的事情，不足為奇。同時，我們的射門次數也多了許多。我們一直在增加品牌。

I talked about a couple of apartments and Outset. So we do think conversions are going to be a bigger part of our future than they might have been on average over the last 10 years.

我談到了幾套公寓和 Outset 公司。因此，我們認為轉換率在未來將比過去 10 年的平均值發揮更大的作用。

I do not believe they will stabilize at 40%. I think they will be in the range of 30% to 40%, and it will depend on what's going on in the world. But I don't think anytime soon, we'll go back down into the 20s. If you look back on average over an extended period of time, it's been more in the mid- to upper 20s. I do think we're more permanently above that, both because the performance of the brands, just more shots on goal with very conversion-friendly brands.

我不認為它們會穩定在 40%。我認為這個比例會在 30% 到 40% 之間，這還要取決於世界局勢。但我認為短期內我們不會再跌回20度以下。如果回顧較長一段時間的平均情況，這個數字通常在25到20之間。我認為我們已經更穩定地超越了這種情況，這既是因為品牌的表現，也是因為那些轉換率很高的品牌獲得了更多的射門機會。

So what did I miss, Kevin?

凱文，我錯過了什麼？

I just on the financing environment, I'd just add, I think it's good and getting better. And I think that supports conversions because the cash flow producing assets is easier to finance than ground up, although we did -- we referenced the ground-up improvement stats in our prepared remarks for a reason that our brands -- the other thing in addition to conversions with them being cash flow producing assets, our brands are more financeable, right?

關於融資環境，我只想補充一點，我認為它很好，而且還在不斷改善。我認為這支持了資產轉換，因為產生現金流的資產比從零開始更容易融資，儘管我們在準備好的發言稿中引用了從零開始改進的統計數據，原因是我們的品牌——除了資產轉換之外，由於它們是產生現金流的資產，我們的品牌更容易融資，對吧？

So just in the same way that owners think they're going to make more money with us and they do, lenders have more confidence that they're going to get repaid if our brands associated with it. And so it's just -- it becomes that much easier to finance. That's the only thing I'd add.

就像業主認為與我們合作會賺更多錢，而且他們也確實賺到了一樣，貸款方也更有信心，如果我們的品牌與貸款項目相關聯，他們就能收回貸款。因此，融資就變得容易得多。我唯一要補充的就是這一點。

Steve Pizzella, Deutsche Bank.

史蒂夫‧皮澤拉，德意志銀行。

Just thinking about the 1% to 2% RevPAR guide for the full year in the first quarter, can you talk about how you expect RevPAR to play out from a quarterly cadence perspective throughout the year, knowing the comps do get easier, you get the World Cup in the middle of the year. And then it sounds like increased optimism in select service RevPAR accelerating. Could the RevPAR outlook be conservative?

考慮到第一季全年 RevPAR 成長 1% 到 2% 的目標，您能否從季度節奏的角度談談您預計全年 RevPAR 將如何變化？考慮到比較難度會逐漸降低，而且年中還有世界盃。而且，部分服務RevPAR的成長似乎也預示著市場樂觀情緒將加速上升。RevPAR（每間可供出租客房收入）的預期是否過於保守？

I would give Kevin the first part and I'll take the second.

第一部分我會給凱文，第二部分我自己來。

I mean I'd say it always can be, right? I mean I think we -- Chris talked a lot about the underpinnings that we see in the economy. And look, it's -- we're halfway through the first quarter, right? So there's a lot of year left. But I think I would say they always can be if the things that we're seeing in the data persist, of course, it could be better.

我的意思是，我覺得一直都可能如此，對吧？我的意思是，我認為我們——克里斯談了很多關於我們在經濟中看到的基礎因素。你看，現在已經是第一季的一半了，對吧？所以還有很長一年的時間。但我認為，如果我們從數據中看到的情況持續下去，當然，情況可能會更好。

And then in terms of the quarter, there's a lot -- this is -- we've been doing this a long time. I think this is probably the year with the most complicated puts and takes on calendar that I can remember in a while.

至於季度方面，有很多——這是——我們已經做了很久了。我認為今年可能是我記憶中日曆上最複雜的一年。

But yes, the World Cup is second going into third. The government shutdown was fourth. So I think it's pretty well balanced over the course of the year in terms of the way it's going to play out. And you could always surprise to the upside. I mean the World Cup is a good example, right?

但是，沒錯，世界盃排在第二位，即將進入第三位。這是政府第四次停擺。所以我認為，就全年的發展走向而言，整體情況相當平衡。而且，你總有可能獲得意想不到的好結果。我的意思是，世界盃就是一個很好的例子，對吧？

It depends on who makes it through into the final rounds and which countries are those and it will generate more demand. It can always vary. But I think it's pretty well balanced over the course of the year.

這取決於哪些國家能夠晉級決賽，這將會產生更大的需求。情況總是可能變化的。但我認為從全年來看，整體平衡性相當不錯。

That's well said. I mean when you look at everything that I covered answering Shaun's question about the macro, and I applied and Kevin just reiterated some of the micro things and then you apply the comp issues that you had last year. Again, that's not to say we won't have other new things this year. It's hard not to feel pretty good about that range of guidance. I mean I'm not going to go so far as to say I take the over versus the under, but I probably would.

說得好。我的意思是，當你回顧我回答肖恩關於宏觀問題時所涵蓋的所有內容，我應用了這些內容，凱文只是重申了一些微觀方面的內容，然後你應用了你去年遇到的競爭問題。當然，這並不意味著我們今年不會有其他新事物。很難不對如此全面的指導感到滿意。我的意思是，我不會說我會選擇大分而不是小分，但我可能會這麼做。

Robin Farley, UBS.

羅賓法利，瑞銀集團。

I have a small question for Kevin and maybe a medium-sized question for Chris, if that adds up to one question. Kevin, the --

我有一個小問題想問凱文，還有一個中等大小的問題想問克里斯，如果這兩個問題加起來算一個問題的話。凱文，--

It sounds like two, but give it a shot.

聽起來像是兩個，但不妨試試看。

Yes. Your EPS guide, typically, your EPS grows at a higher rate than your EBITDA growth. And -- just wondering what -- it's not obvious, like your share count is down. It looks like your tax rate is going to be down. So what's the EPS growth rate not being higher than EBITDA growth?

是的。通常情況下，根據 EPS 指南，EPS 的成長率會高於 EBITDA 的成長率。而且——我只是好奇——這並不明顯，例如你的分享次數下降了。看來你的稅率要降低了。那麼，每股盈餘成長率不高於息稅折舊攤銷前獲利成長率是什麼意思呢？

Is there just something obvious that I'm not seeing?

是不是有什麼顯而易見的東西我沒注意到？

And then the medium-sized question for Chris. Chris, you mentioned in your remarks that you'll have more brands later this year. And I know last year, you talked about some things that you were going to launch that you have. And it sounded like maybe that would have filled out your portfolio. So just wondering what is it?

接下來是給克里斯的一個中等難度的問題。克里斯，你在演講中提到今年稍後你會推出更多品牌。我知道去年你曾談到一些你即將推出的產品，而你也確實推出了一些產品。聽起來那樣或許就能完善你的作品集了。所以我想知道它是什麼？

Is it like white space things like apartment by Hilton or like -- because it had seemed like maybe your portfolio would be pretty filled out with the brand launches you had talked about for last year. So just your thoughts on that.

是像希爾頓公寓之類的空白領域嗎？還是像——因為你去年談到的那些品牌發布，似乎會讓你的作品集相當充實？你對此有何看法？

Kevin, will answer the first part of your one question.

凱文將回答你問題的第一部分。

Yes. Robin, I don't know if it's a small question because EPS growth is pretty important to us and to investors, but it's a relatively small answer. It's easy. I mean you mentioned share count. We don't guide to share count.

是的。羅賓，我不知道這算不算一個小問題，因為每股盈餘成長對我們和投資人來說都很重要，但答案相對來說比較簡單。很簡單。我的意思是，你提到了股份數量。我們不以分享次數為導向。

And then you got a couple of onetime items, primarily related to interest expense associated with not just releveraging as EBITDA grows, but also implied in our guidance is moving closer to or actually at the midpoint of our range of -- our guided range for leverage is close to 3.25%. So it's just those two factors, and that's all the risk to it. If you adjusted for those two things, EPS growth is in the low double digits.

然後還有一些一次性項目，主要與利息支出有關，這不僅與 EBITDA 成長帶來的重新槓桿有關，而且也暗示著我們的指導意見正在接近或實際上達到我們槓桿率範圍的中點——我們指導的槓桿率範圍接近 3.25%。所以只有這兩個因素，這就是全部的風險。如果將這兩個因素考慮在內，每股盈餘成長率將達到兩位數的低點。

The first is always going to happen just because we're always going to be buying back shares. And the second, at some point, we're not going to keep increasing leverage. So that's having the effect. So it's --

第一件事總是會發生的，因為我們總是會回購股票。第二，在某種程度上，我們不可能繼續增加槓桿。所以這確實產生了效果。所以是--

Those two things, and that's it.

就這兩件事，僅此而已。

It's just transitional. And second, I mentioned one. I mean, we have -- we're always in the skunkworks looking at lots of things. The things that I think are most imminent are another lifestyle brand in between Motto and Canopy. So say, upper mid-scale, lower upper upscale segment.

這只是過渡階段。其次，我提到了一個。我的意思是，我們一直在秘密研發各種技術。我認為最迫切的事情是，在 Motto 和 Canopy 之間推出另一個生活品牌。例如，中高端市場，以及中高端市場。

We think there's a huge TAM for that as we've been thinking about both Motto and Canopy, which are doing great. We just think there's a big white space as we talk to customers and do the research. And as we talk to owners around the world, we think there's a lot of demand. And we think, as I said before, there's a big TAM.

我們認為這方面有巨大的市場潛力，因為我們一直在考慮 Motto 和 Canopy，它們都做得很好。我們在與客戶交談和進行研究的過程中，發現這方面有很大的空白領域。我們與世界各地的業主交流後發現，市場需求很大。正如我之前所說，我們認為市場潛力巨大。

Undergraduate, which has, I guess, been written about because I have talked about it, I think I talked about it on the last call. We're really excited about that. That's imminent in the next 60 days. Again, graduates, fabulous performing super well. Pipeline is building really well.

本科階段，我想應該已經有人寫過相關內容了，因為我談到過它，我想我在上一次電話會議上也談到過它。我們對此感到非常興奮。這件事將在未來60天內發生。再次恭喜各位畢業生，你們表現非常出色。管道建​​設進展非常順利。

But there are a whole bunch of markets, hundreds and hundreds just in the US alone, probably 400 that really can't afford to build the full graduate, which is an upper upscale brand and need something more in the mid-scale space. But they like the theme and the idea of what graduate the ethos of the brand.

但有許多市場，光在美國就有成百上千個，可能多達 400 個，它們真的負擔不起建造完整的研究生院（這是一個高端品牌），它們需要在中檔市場尋找更好的選擇。但他們喜歡這個主題以及它所體現的品牌精神。

And so we're going to -- we want to give all those college towns the same opportunity to have a really great graduate approach. And undergraduate, we think, is a fabulous way to do that. We have a couple of other things we're working on that are -- will be -- we'll talk more about as we get a little further along. Student housing associated with graduate, something we're working on. I wouldn't say it's imminent, but we think the TAM is reasonable and worth doing.

所以，我們希望──我們希望讓所有大學城都有同樣的機會，擁有真正優秀的畢業生培養模式。我們認為，本科階段是實現這一目標的絕佳途徑。我們還有一些其他的事情正在進行中，我們會隨著時間的推移再詳細討論。研究生宿舍，這是我們正在努力的方向。我不會說它迫在眉睫，但我們認為 TAM 是合理的，值得去做。

And so we're doing the work and a couple of other ideas, but I'll leave it. The two that are coming soon are the lifestyle and -- or they're both in lifestyle category, lifestyle, upper mid-scale and undergraduate.

所以我們正在進行這項工作，還有一些其他的想法，但我就先說到這裡吧。即將推出的兩款產品分別是生活風格類產品和——或者它們都屬於生活風格類產品，即中高端生活風格產品，面向本科生。

Lizzie Dove, Goldman Sachs.

莉齊·多芙，高盛集團。

I wanted to touch on the non-RevPAR fee side of things. I think back at your Investor Day a few years ago now, you'd called out that algo in the low double-digit range back then. You mentioned this morning, it was an outperformer last year. Anything you'd share on how this evolves and the outlook for that over time, I guess, especially on the credit card side of things?

我想談談非RevPAR費用方面的問題。回想起幾年前的投資人日，你當時就預測演算法的報酬率會在兩位數低點波動。你今天早上提到過，它去年的表現優於其他股票。您能否分享一下關於這項技術如何發展以及未來前景的看法，尤其是在信用卡方面？

Yes, Lizzie, I think we probably will stick to generally -- you referenced the Investor Day, generally what we said. And what we said has played out that we think that our non-RevPAR-driven fees will continue to grow at above algorithm. Some of that's a credit card, some of that's timeshare. Some of that's our purchasing business. We've got some other ideas that we're working on in terms of commercializing our customer base to continue to grow the business.

是的，莉齊，我想我們可能會堅持下去——你提到了投資者日，我們基本上就是這麼說的。我們之前所說的已經得到驗證，我們認為非RevPAR驅動的費用將繼續按照上述演算法成長。一部分是信用卡消費，一部分是分時度假消費。其中一部分屬於我們的採購業務。我們還有一些其他的想法，正在研究如何將我們的客戶群商業化，以繼續發展業務。

I think we've done a pretty good job of that over time.

我認為隨著時間的推移，我們在這方面做得相當不錯。

And then our credit card program, I'm sure Chris may want to add something to this. Look, we have a fantastic credit card program that continues to be among the best and most popular cards in our industry and with Amex, drives a lot of customer engagement, drives great economics, both for our system and for us. And beyond that, we don't -- we tend to not talk all that much about it in terms of some of the details are competitively sensitive, but we think that, that will continue to grow above algorithm as well for a long time.

至於我們的信用卡項目，我相信克里斯可能想補充一些內容。你看，我們有一個非常棒的信用卡項目，它一直是我們行業中最好、最受歡迎的信用卡之一，而且與美國運通合作，極大地提高了客戶參與度，為我們的體系和我們自身都帶來了良好的經濟效益。除此之外，我們不太願意談論這方面——我們傾向於不談論太多細節，因為有些細節涉及競爭敏感性，但我們認為，在演算法之上，這種情況也會持續很長時間。

Brandt Montour, Barclays.

Brandt Montour，巴克萊銀行。

I wanted to ask about group business. I don't think you guys gave a pace number, but a pace for '26 would be helpful. And then the real question though is really about how we came into last year, right, with really good group pace. And then -- and of course, group in the US specifically did not -- it wasn't realized to that level because -- obviously, because of tariffs.

我想諮詢一下團體業務方面的問題。我認為你們沒有給出配速數據，但如果能提供 2026 年的配速數據就太好了。但真正的問題是，我們去年是如何取得如此好的團隊速度的，對吧？然後——當然，特別是美國的這個群體並沒有——因為——很明顯，因為關稅，所以沒有達到那種程度。

Would you say sitting here today, knowing what you know about how that business works, we would need a shock to the demand side like something we saw last March for group not to be an acceleration this year versus last year?

您今天坐在這裡，以您對該行業運作方式的了解，認為我們需要像去年三月那樣的需求衝擊，才能避免今年集團業務增速超過去年嗎？

Yes, you would. I mean right now, we feel really good. I'd say, coming into the year relative to our expectation for the year, we feel great. We're like mid-single digits system-wide group position up for the year. And that's against obviously, with a 1% to 2% RevPAR guidance, something -- an expectation that when we finished the year, it would be somewhat lower than that.

是的，你會的。我的意思是，現在我們感覺真的很好。我覺得，就今年的預期而言，我們感覺非常好。我們今年的系統內團隊排名提升了約個位數。顯然，這與 1% 到 2% 的 RevPAR 預期相悖——我們預計到年底時，實際成長率會略低於這個預期。

We'll see. But we feel -- yes, we feel like we've got the solid base on the books. We think group will be the outperformer this year. We would have thought that last year, but for the reasons you described, it didn't end up being the case.

我們拭目以待。但我們感覺——是的，我們感覺我們已經有了堅實的基礎。我們認為該集團今年的表現將優於其他公司。我們去年也曾這麼認為，但由於你描述的原因，最終結果並非如此。

But if you look at the categories, I'd say we believe all 3 of the major categories, group leisure and business transient are going to grow for the reasons I've spent too much time talking about, driven by the macro tailwinds, we do think it will be in that order. We do think it will be group at the top, short any unforeseen events, leisure and then business transient. But we think we'll see healthy growth across all segments with group leading the way.

但如果你看一下各個類別，我認為所有三大類別、團體休閒和商務旅行都將增長，原因我已經花了太多時間談論，這是在宏觀利好因素的推動下，我們認為增長的順序就是這樣。我們認為，最高峰將是集團出行，其次是任何不可預見的事件，然後是休閒出行，最後是商務出行。但我們認為所有業務板塊都將實現健康成長，集團將引領這一成長。

Michael Bellisario, Baird.

Michael Bellisario，貝爾德。

Just along those same lines, just in terms of the booking window, maybe what changes have you seen recently? How has that evolved or improved? And then any more confidence from meeting planners, maybe what are you hearing from them recently?

同樣地，就預訂窗口而言，您最近是否看到過什麼變化？它是如何演變或改進的？那麼，會議策劃者們是否還有信心呢？你最近從他們那裡聽到了什麼？

Yes. The booking window has been stable. It actually extended technically by 1 day since last quarter. So not -- it went from 26 days to 27 days. So I mean, not -- I would say that's relatively stable.

是的。預訂窗口一直很穩定。實際上，從技術上講，它比上一季延長了1天。所以不是——從 26 天變成了 27 天。所以我的意思是，不——我會說它相對穩定。

But -- and what we're hearing from, frankly, across the board, what we're hearing from -- in all segments feels pretty good. If you think about the business transient, we're talking to those customers all the time. I think the general theme is they all believe they're going to travel more this year for all the reasons that everybody's got to get out and what they think is going to be a little bit stronger economy, and they know they're going to have to pay a little bit more because that's life in the environment we're in.

但坦白說，我們從各方面聽到的回饋都相當不錯，各個領域的情況都很好。如果你考慮到業務的流動性，我們會發現我們一直在與這些客戶溝通。我認為總的來說，他們都相信今年會有更多的旅行，原因有很多，例如每個人都必須出去走走，以及他們認為經濟會稍微好轉一些，他們也知道他們要多花一些錢，因為這就是我們所處環境下的生活。

And I'd say same on the group side, we talk -- I'm talking to our Head of Sales all the time. And I think his view is the trajectory again, short unforeseen circumstances that rattle people in terms of broader macro stuff. The sentiment is quite good, and people have a healthy attitude about continuing to book business. So it all feels pretty good.

我覺得集團內部也是如此，我們經常溝通——我一直和我們的銷售主管保持聯繫。我認為他的觀點再次印證了這一點，即短期內不可預見的情況會從更廣泛的宏觀層面動搖人們的信心。市場情緒相當不錯，人們對繼續經營業務持正面態度。所以感覺一切都很好。

Patrick Scholes, Truist Securities.

Patrick Scholes，Truist Securities。

Great. We certainly missed your polyannaism at the ALIS conference 2 weeks ago.

偉大的。兩週前在ALIS會議上，我們非常想念您的多元主義精神。

I don't want to take any offense of that. How about optimism instead of pollyannaish. My vocabulary --

我不想因此而感到冒犯。與其盲目樂觀，不如樂觀一點。我的詞彙--

No, I mean that in a positive way. It wasn't the most upbeat conference. We certainly could have used -- I mean we could have used your enthusiasm there that you spoke about.

不，我的意思是褒義的。這並非一場氣氛十分活躍的會議。我們當然可以──我是說，我們當然可以運用你剛才提到的那種熱情。

I was otherwise occupied during my day job.

我白天上班的時候忙於其他事情。

Understood. Understood. A credit -- excuse me, a question on your credit card contract. Is there anything in your existing credit card contract that would allow for a step-up in the royalty rate? And if so, how likely might that be that it would get triggered?

明白了。明白了。關於您的信用卡合同，我有一個問題。您現有的信用卡合約中是否有任何條款允許提高版稅率？如果屬實，那麼它被觸發的可能性有多大？

After yesterday, I suspect that we might get this question. Kevin gave the answer. We're not going to get into like and can't legally get into all the terms of contractually. We redid our -- suffice to say, we redid our deals and then many years ago and then redid them again a couple of years ago. We feel really good about the contractual relationship we have with all of them, Amex obviously being the most dominant.

昨天之後，我懷疑我們可能會被問到這個問題。凱文給了答案。我們不會深入探討，而且從法律上講，我們也不能深入探討合約的所有條款。簡而言之，我們重新談判了我們的協議，第一次是在很多年前，第二次是在幾年前。我們對與所有合作者的合作關係都非常滿意，其中美國運通顯然是最主要的合作方。

We feel really good about the growth rate that's built into the contract as well as the natural growth that's coming because the cards and acquisition of customers and the spend on the cards given customers love the cards is very favorable. So I would not set an expectation that there's some big announcement coming from us. We're doing great. It's growing above algorithm, and we are highly confident it will continue to grow above algorithm for many years to come.

我們對合約中規定的成長率以及即將到來的自然成長感到非常滿意，因為信用卡、客戶獲取以及客戶對信用卡的喜愛程度都非常高，信用卡消費情況也十分有利。所以，我不會讓大家期待我們會發布什麼重大公告。我們做得很好。它的成長速度超過了演算法，我們非常有信心，在未來的許多年裡，它將繼續超過演算法的成長速度。

Okay. And I'll also take the over on the RevPAR as well.

好的。而且我也看好RevPAR（每間可供出租客房收入）高於預期。

I like it. Why are you being such a pollyanna?

我喜歡。為什麼這麼天真樂觀呢？

Well, no, I mean that in a positive way. No, the perfect storm of holiday shifts and World Cup and --

不，我的意思是褒義的。不，是假期輪班和世界盃的完美風暴造成的。--

Trey Bowers, Wells Fargo.

Trey Bowers，富國銀行。

A lot of what I was going to ask has been asked already. But I guess it's been pretty quiet from you guys on an inorganic basis for the last year, and you haven't really needed it. Organic growth has been best-in-class. But just curious what you're seeing out there in terms of opportunities? Do you expect that, that should pick up over time?

很多我想問的問題都已經被問過了。但我想在過去一年裡，你們在非有機成長方面一直相當低調，而且你們確實不需要這樣做。有機成長一直處於行業領先水平。我只是好奇，你覺得目前有哪些機會？你認為這種情況會隨著時間而改善嗎？

Just anything around the M&A environment as we go forward?

關於未來併購環境方面，您有什麼想說的嗎？

Yes. I get asked a lot, obviously. If you look at the history of the time I and we have been here 18 going on 19 years, other than two years ago with two, what I would describe, one, micro transaction and one relatively small transaction, we have not done any M&A. So all of our growth where we're, what, I don't know, 2 or 3x system size in that time frame has been organic. Where we've gone from 8 brands to 26 brands.

是的。顯然，我常被問到這個問題。回顧我和公司成立至今的18年（即將19年）的歷史，除了兩年前進行的兩筆交易（我稱之為一筆微型交易和一筆相對較小的交易）之外，我們沒有進行過任何併購活動。所以，我們在這段時間內所取得的所有成長，也就是系統規模成長了 2 到 3 倍，都是自然成長。我們已經從 8 個品牌增加到了 26 個品牌。

You heard me talk about another couple of babies we're getting ready to birth. So we think that we have built a very, very good skill set, I would argue, industry-leading skill set to drive organic growth, which is not just development teams doing a great job, which, of course, they are. It's about our commercial teams doing a great job delivering performance.

你聽我說過，我們即將迎來另外兩個寶寶。所以我們認為我們已經建立了一套非常非常好的技能體系，我認為，是業界領先的技能體系，可以推動有機成長，這不僅僅是開發團隊做得非常出色，當然，他們也做得很好。關鍵在於我們的銷售團隊能否出色地完成業績目標。

It's about our brand teams doing a great job delivering great products that customers want. We think it is our alpha. That is what we've done, I think, with all respect to a bunch of great competitors. We've done more of and better than our competition. And as you know, that is a heck of a lot better way to drive overall returns because every time we do it, the returns on that are infinite versus going out and buying things.

關鍵在於我們的品牌團隊能否出色地完成工作，打造出顧客想要的優質產品。我們認為這是我們的阿爾法星。我認為，這就是我們所做的，恕我直言，我們對許多優秀的競爭對手也表示尊重。我們比競爭對手做得更多更好。如你所知，這是一種更好的提高整體回報的方式，因為我們每次都這樣做，其回報都是無限的，而出去買東西則不然。

So we found unique circumstances in the 2 we did a couple of years ago that were really driven by the times like interest rates spiking, the environment slowing down and things got a bit rattled and we found some like unique themes that -- on things that we really liked.

所以，我們在幾年前做的那兩件事中發現了一些獨特的情況，這些情況實際上是由當時的情況驅動的，例如利率飆升、經濟環境放緩，以及各種動盪不安的事情，我們從中發現了一些獨特的主題——一些我們非常喜歡的主題。

But that is not the core of what we do. I would say we look at everything that's out there. I don't see anything -- I would not -- I would say I don't see anything on the horizon. I always have to say, because in this seat, you do, never say never, but don't misinterpret that. We're not working on anything that I think is real.

但這並非我們工作的核心。我認為我們會考慮所有可能的方案。我什麼也沒看到——我不會——我會說我什麼都沒看到。我總是要說，因為坐在這個位置上，你永遠不能說“絕不”，但不要誤解我的意思。我覺得我們目前沒有在做任何真正有意義的事。

I think you should think about us as an organic growth story. We love what we have. We love the skill set we've built, and we think it is the best way to drive the best returns. And we are equally focused on capital allocation to running the business.

我認為你應該把我們看作是一個有機成長的故事。我們珍惜我們所擁有的一切。我們熱愛我們所掌握的技能，我們認為這是獲得最佳回報的最佳途徑。我們同樣重視資本配置，以用於業務運作。

And obviously, the more we can do this organically, the more free cash flow spits out, the more shares we buy, the more we become an even better serial compounder, and that's our strategy. So I grew up long ago as a cap. It's like we got to run the business well. We've got to drive share, drive growth, have great brands, do a great job for customers, have a great culture, all that. But when it comes out, when we spin it out the other end, we got to allocate capital really intelligently.

顯然，我們越能以有機的方式實現這一點，產生的自由現金流就越多，我們買的股票就越多，我們就越能成為一個更優秀的連續複合成長者，這就是我們的策略。所以，我很久以前就長成了一頂帽子。就好像我們必須把生意經營好一樣。我們必須提高市場份額，推動成長，打造優秀的品牌，為客戶提供優質服務，營造良好的企業文化，等等。但當它最終面世時，當我們把它推向另一端時，我們就必須非常明智地分配資金。

And again, we think we're pretty good at that. We think we can keep growing at this level that we're talking about in the 6% to 7% range for an extended period of time without having to buy growth. And we think that's going to drive a better outcome in terms of how we perform over the next 1, 2, 3, 5, 10, 15 years as it has over the last 10 years.

我們再次認為我們在這方面做得相當不錯。我們認為，我們可以在相當長的一段時間內，保持目前 6% 到 7% 的成長水平，而無需購買成長點。我們認為，這將使我們在未來 1、2、3、5、10、15 年的表現像過去 10 年一樣更好。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the call back over to Chris Nassetta for any additional or closing remarks. Please go ahead.

女士們、先生們，我們的問答環節到此結束。我謹將電話轉回給克里斯·納塞塔，請他作補充或總結發言。請繼續。

As always, we appreciate you guys spending the time with us. It's been a dynamic environment. Obviously, over the last year, you can sense my and our optimism about seeing things turning the corner. We'll look forward to hopefully describing how we continue to see things improve along the lines that I described after we finished the first quarter. I hope everybody has a great day and a great week.

和往常一樣，感謝大家抽空陪伴我們。這是一個充滿活力的環境。顯然，在過去一年裡，你可以感受到我和我們都對事情好轉的樂觀態度。我們期待著能夠繼續描述我們如何看到事情按照我在第一季結束後所描述的方向不斷改善。祝大家今天和接下來的一週都過得愉快。

Take care. Thanks.

小心。謝謝。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議已經結束。感謝各位參加今天的報告會。您現在可以斷開連線了。