希爾頓酒店 (HLT) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Hilton first-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Jill Chapman, Senior Vice President, Head of Development Operations and Investor Relations. You may begin.

早安，歡迎參加希爾頓 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，此事件正在被記錄。現在，我想將會議交給高級副總裁、開發營運和投資者關係主管吉爾·查普曼 (Jill Chapman)。你可以開始了。

Thank you, Nick. Welcome to Hilton's first-quarter 2025 earnings call. Before we begin, we would like to remind you that our discussions this morning will include forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those indicated in the forward-looking statements, and forward-looking statements made today speak only to our expectations as of today. We undertake no obligation to update or revise these statements.

謝謝你，尼克。歡迎參加希爾頓 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。在我們開始之前，我們想提醒您，我們今天上午的討論將包括前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中所示的結果有重大差異，而今天所做的前瞻性陳述僅代表我們今天的預期。我們不承擔更新或修改這些聲明的義務。

For a discussion of some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ, please see the risk factor section of our most recently filed Form 10-K. In addition, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures on this call.

有關可能導致實際結果不同的一些因素的討論，請參閱我們最近提交的 10-K 表格中的風險因素部分。此外，我們將在本次電話會議上參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標。

You can find reconciliations of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures discussed in today's call in our earnings press release, and on our website at ir.hilton.com. This morning, Chris Nassetta, our President and Chief Executive Officer, will provide an overview of the current operating environment and the company's outlook.

您可以在我們的收益新聞稿和我們的網站 ir.hilton.com 上找到今天電話會議中討論的非 GAAP 與 GAAP 財務指標的對帳表。今天上午，我們的總裁兼執行長 Chris Nassetta 將概述當前的經營環境和公司前景。

Kevin Jacobs, our Chief Financial Officer, and President, Global Development, will then review our first quarter results and discuss our expectations for the year. Following the remarks, we'll be happy to take your questions.

我們的財務長兼全球發展總裁凱文·雅各布斯 (Kevin Jacobs) 將回顧我們的第一季業績並討論我們對今年的期望。發言結束後，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

And with that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Chris.

說完這些，我很高興將電話轉給克里斯。

Thank you, Jill. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us today. We're pleased with the results we delivered in the first quarter, with adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS both exceeding our expectations, even with somewhat weaker macroeconomic conditions that drove system-wide RevPAR to the low end of our guidance range.

謝謝你，吉爾。大家早安，感謝大家今天加入我們。我們對第一季的業績感到滿意，調整後的 EBITDA 和調整後的 EPS 均超出了我們的預期，儘管宏觀經濟條件略弱，導致全系統的 RevPAR 處於我們指導範圍的低端。

We also continued to deliver on our strong development story during the quarter, expanding our brands into new parts of the world and further strengthening our pipeline, which now includes more than 0.5 million rooms. Our performance demonstrates the resiliency of our business model and ability to navigate short-term choppiness while driving long-term value for our owners, our guests, team members and shareholders.

本季度，我們也持續保持強勁的發展勢頭，將我們的品牌拓展到世界新的地區，並進一步加強了我們的酒店儲備，目前我們的酒店儲備客房數量已超過 50 萬間。我們的業績證明了我們商業模式的彈性和應對短期波動的能力，同時為我們的業主、客人、團隊成員和股東創造長期價值。

Turning to results for the quarter. We reported system-wide RevPAR growth of 2.5% year over year, driven by strong momentum from the end of last year that carried into 2025, and supported solid performance in both January and February.

談到本季的業績。我們報告稱，全系統 RevPAR 年增 2.5%，這得益於去年年底持續到 2025 年的強勁勢頭，並支撐了 1 月和 2 月的穩健表現。

However, broader macro uncertainty intensified in March, which pressured demand, particularly across Leisure. RevPAR growth was led by Group, which increased more than 6% year over year, supported by growth in urban markets and continued strength in company meetings.

然而，3月宏觀不確定性加劇，對需求帶來壓力，尤其是休閒領域的需求。集團引領了 RevPAR 的成長，得益於城市市場的成長和公司會議的持續強勁，集團的 RevPAR 年成長超過 6%。

Business transient RevPAR increased 2%, led by solid performance from small and medium-sized businesses, a resilient customer that continues to make up roughly 85% of our business transient mix. Leisure-transient RevPAR increased 1% with robust performance in January, followed by softening demand patterns as the quarter progressed, mirroring the uncertainty in the broader macro environment.

商務臨時 RevPAR 成長了 2%，這主要得益於中小型企業的穩健表現，這些客戶具有較強的韌性，繼續占我們商務臨時客戶組合的約 85%。1 月休閒短途 RevPAR 表現強勁，成長 1%，但隨著本季的進展，需求模式開始疲軟，反映出宏觀環境的不確定性。

Weaker trends have continued into the second quarter, with short-term bookings roughly flat year-over-year. We believe travelers are largely in a wait-and-see mode as the rapidly changing macro environment continues to unfold.

這種疲軟趨勢延續到了第二季度，短期預訂量與去年同期基本持平。我們認為，隨著宏觀環境的快速變化，旅行者大多處於觀望狀態。

As a result and with tougher year-over-year comparisons from the Easter holiday shift, we expect second quarter RevPAR to be approximately flat versus the prior year quarter. For the full year, our system-wide RevPAR expectations are flat to up 2%, with the midpoint assuming current trends continue. The upside reflects a modest improvement in the second half of the year, and the downside suggest modestly deteriorating conditions. We continue to expect Group to outperform Transient RevPAR growth.

因此，由於復活節假期的影響，與去年同期的比較更加困難，我們預計第二季的 RevPAR 將與去年同期基本持平。就全年而言，我們預計全系統 RevPAR 將持平或上漲 2%，中間值假設當前趨勢持續下去。上行趨勢反映出下半年情況略有改善，下行趨勢則顯示情況略有惡化。我們仍預期集團的每間可用客房收入 (RevPAR) 成長將優於瞬間每間可用客房收入 (RevPAR)。

Turning to development. Following a record-breaking year of growth in 2024, we had a strong start to 2025. During the quarter, we opened 186 hotels totaling more than 20,000 rooms, representing a 20% year-over-year increase, and achieved net unit growth of 7.2%.

轉向發展。繼 2024 年創下成長紀錄之後，我們在 2025 年迎來了強勁開局。本季度，我們新開設了 186 家飯店，客房總數超過 20,000 間，年增 20%，實現淨單位成長 7.2%。

Conversions accounted for approximately 40% of openings in the quarter, driven largely by DoubleTree and Spark. Additionally, openings in international markets remain strong, representing half of all new additions to our portfolio, including several brand debuts in new markets.

本季度，轉換型飯店佔開業飯店的約 40%，主要由 DoubleTree 和 Spark 推動。此外，國際市場的開拓依然強勁，占我們產品組合所有新增品牌的一半，其中包括在新市場首次亮相的幾個品牌。

Hilton Garden Inn debuted in Greece, Hampton and Canopy entered Africa, and Spark expanded its presence across Europe with openings in Germany and Poland.

希爾頓花園酒店 (Hilton Garden Inn) 在希臘首次亮相，漢普頓 (Hampton) 和 Canopy 進入非洲，Spark 則在德國和波蘭開設了酒店，擴大了其在歐洲的業務。

For the EMEA region overall, we're excited to mark the opening of our [1,000th] hotel this spring. Our Luxury and Lifestyle categories continued to show significant growth accounting for 30% of all hotel openings in the quarter, with these portfolios now approaching 1,000 hotels around the world.

對於整個 EMEA 地區而言，我們很高興今年春天迎來第 [1,000 家] 家酒店的開業。我們的奢華和生活方式類別繼續呈現顯著增長，佔本季度所有開業酒店的 30%，這些酒店組合目前在全球已接近 1,000 家。

The addition of SLH Properties and continued growth of our conversion-friendly Curio and Tapestry brands supported growth across both categories during the quarter. Momentum continued into April with several key openings, including the Waldorf Astoria Osaka, a 252-room property that offers panoramic skyline views and successfully blends the iconic Waldorf Astoria legacy with the dynamic energy of Osaka.

SLH Properties 的加入以及我們易於轉換的 Curio 和 Tapestry 品牌的持續成長支持了本季兩個類別的成長。這一勢頭持續到四月，有幾家重要酒店開業，其中包括大阪華爾道夫酒店，這家擁有 252 間客房的酒店可欣賞到天際線的全景，成功地將華爾道夫酒店的標誌性傳統與大阪的活力融為一體。

Additionally, just last week, we opened the new Waldorf Astoria Costa Rica. The hotel has stunning views of Costa Rica's Northern Pacific Coast, 10,000 square feet of versatile meeting space and six regionally inspired dining experiences. Our latest Waldorf Astoria will pair world-class luxury with the nature and vibrant culture of Costa Rica while further expanding Hilton's growing luxury portfolio, which is now one of the largest in the industry.

此外，就在上週，我們開設了新的哥斯大黎加華爾道夫酒店。飯店享有哥斯達黎加北太平洋海岸的壯麗景色，擁有 10,000 平方英尺的多功能會議空間和六種具有當地風味的餐飲體驗。我們最新的華爾道夫酒店將世界一流的奢華與哥斯達黎加的自然風光和充滿活力的文化融為一體，同時進一步擴大希爾頓不斷增長的奢華酒店組合，目前該組合已成為業內最大的酒店組合之一。

In addition to strong openings, we continued to grow our development pipeline, which ended the quarter with more than 503,000 rooms, representing an increase of 7% year over year and continued sequential quarterly growth.

除了強勁的開業外，我們還繼續擴大我們的開發管道，本季結束時我們的客房數量超過 503,000 間，同比增長 7%，並繼續保持季度環比增長。

We approved more than 32,000 rooms in the quarter, up 10% year over year, with notable announcements, including new Signia hotels in Jaipur, India, and Cairo, Egypt marking the debut of this brand in the Asia Pacific and Africa regions.

本季度我們批准了超過 32,000 間客房，比去年同期增長了 10%，其中包括在印度齋浦爾和埃及開羅開設新的 Signia 酒店，這標誌著該品牌在亞太和非洲地區的首次亮相。

Additionally, we signed our first Waldorf Astoria in Texas. And in April, we announced the signing of Waldorf Astoria Turks and Caicos, which will redefine Caribbean luxury when it opens in 2028. We also approved the first Tapestry and Curio hotels in Athens, Greece, signed Canopy's first ski destination in Deer Valley, Utah, and announced plans for Tempo to enter the UK, marking the brand's first hotel outside the US.

此外，我們在德克薩斯州簽署了第一家華爾道夫酒店協議。今年 4 月，我們宣布簽約特克斯和凱科斯群島華爾道夫酒店，該酒店將於 2028 年開業，重新定義加勒比海地區的奢華。我們還批准了位於希臘雅典的首批 Tapestry 和 Curio 酒店，簽署了 Canopy 在美國猶他州鹿谷的首個滑雪勝地，並宣布了 Tempo 進入英國的計劃，這是該品牌在美國境外開設的首家酒店。

To capture even more fast-growing global middle-class demand, we continue to strengthen our focused service pipeline in strategic growth markets. During the quarter, we approved Hilton Garden Inn properties in Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines and Indonesia and announced that we will triple our focus service footprint in Southeast Asia in the coming years, fueled by the growing demand for mid-market accommodations.

為了滿足全球中產階級更快成長的需求，我們持續加強在策略性成長市場的重點服務管道。在本季度，我們批准了越南、馬來西亞、菲律賓和印尼的希爾頓花園酒店，並宣布，由於中端市場住宿需求的不斷增長，我們將在未來幾年將東南亞的重點服務範圍擴大三倍。

In India, we signed a strategic licensing agreement with NILE Hospitality to open 75 Hampton hotels in the market. Along with our agreement to open 150 Spark hotels in India, this reaffirms our commitment to expanding in this key emerging economy.

在印度，我們與 NILE Hospitality 簽署了策略性授權協議，在該市場開設 75 家漢普頓酒店。連同我們同意在印度開設 150 家 Spark 酒店，這再次證明了我們致力於在這個關鍵新興經濟體擴張的承諾。

Construction starts remained strong in the first quarter, up 13% year over year, excluding partnerships, with growth across all regions and particular strength in Asia Pacific. Our pipeline includes nearly 0.25 million rooms under construction, which is more than any other hotel company, representing more than 20% of industry share of rooms under construction and nearly 4 times our existing share of supply.

第一季建築開工保持強勁，年增 13%（不包括合作夥伴關係），所有地區均實現成長，亞太地區尤為強勁。我們的在建客房數量接近 25 萬間，比其他任何飯店公司都多，佔業界在建客房份額的 20% 以上，幾乎是我們現有供應份額的 4 倍。

Looking ahead, we remain confident in our ability to deliver net unit growth of 6% to 7% in 2025, with nearly half of our pipeline under construction and continued growth in conversion opportunities.

展望未來，我們仍然有信心在 2025 年實現 6% 至 7% 的淨單位增長率，目前我們近一半的項目正在建設中，轉換機會也將繼續增長。

Making all this possible is our family of Hilton team members who continue to spread the light and warmth of hospitality in remarkable ways. During the quarter, we were named the number one best company to work for in the United States by Great Place to Work and Fortune, marking our second consecutive year in the number one spot and our tenth appearance on this prestigious list.

讓這一切成為可能的是希爾頓團隊成員，他們繼續以非凡的方式傳播熱情好客的光明和溫暖。本季度，我們被《Great Place to Work》和《財星》雜誌評選為美國最適合工作的公司第一名，這是我們連續第二年位居第一，也是第十次登上這一著名榜單。

Overall, we're pleased with our performance in the first quarter, and remain optimistic about our opportunities over the long term, supported by our asset-light fee-based business model and favorable megatrends in travel, we believe we can continue to drive long-term value for our shareholders despite current uncertainty in the global macroeconomic environment.

整體而言，我們對第一季的業績感到滿意，並對我們的長期機會保持樂觀，在我們輕資產收費業務模式和旅遊領域有利的大趨勢的支持下，我們相信，儘管目前全球宏觀經濟環境存在不確定性，我們仍能繼續為股東創造長期價值。

Now, I'm going to turn the call over to Kevin for a few more details on our results in the quarter and our expectations for the rest of the year.

現在，我將把電話轉給凱文，讓他詳細介紹我們本季的業績以及今年剩餘時間的預期。

Thanks, Chris, and good morning everyone. During the quarter, system-wide RevPAR grew 2.5% versus the prior year on a comparable and currency-neutral basis, driven largely by rate growth. Adjusted EBITDA was $795 million in the first quarter, up 6% year over year and exceeding the high end of our guidance range. Our performance was largely driven by better-than-expected growth in non-RevPAR-driven fees and timing items.

謝謝，克里斯，大家早安。本季度，全系統 RevPAR 與前一年相比按可比和貨幣中性計算增長了 2.5%，這主要得益於房價增長。第一季調整後的 EBITDA 為 7.95 億美元，年成長 6%，超過了我們預期範圍的高端。我們的業績很大程度上得益於非 RevPAR 驅動的費用和計時項目優於預期的成長。

Management and franchise fees grew 5% year over year. For the quarter, diluted earnings per share adjusted for special items was $1.72. Turning to our regional performance. First quarter comparable US RevPAR increased 2.1%, driven by strong Group performance.

管理和特許經營費用較去年同期成長5%。本季度，經特殊項目調整後的每股攤薄收益為 1.72 美元。談談我們的區域表現。受集團強勁業績的推動，第一季美國可比 RevPAR 成長了 2.1%。

For full year 2025, we expect US RevPAR growth to be around the midpoint of our revised system-wide RevPAR range. In the Americas outside the US, first quarter RevPAR increased 7% year over year, driven by key events in Mexico and Brazil, including [Carnival]. For full-year 2025, we expect RevPAR growth to be in the mid-single digits.

對於 2025 年全年而言，我們預計美國的 RevPAR 成長率將達到我們修訂後的全系統 RevPAR 範圍的中點左右。在美國以外的美洲地區，第一季 RevPAR 年增 7%，這得益於墨西哥和巴西發生的重大事件，包括[狂歡]。對於 2025 年全年，我們預計 RevPAR 成長率將達到中等個位數。

In Europe, RevPAR grew 2.6% year over year, with strong rate and occupancy growth in Continental Europe driving results for the region. For full-year 2025, we expect low single-digit RevPAR growth. In the Middle East and Africa region, RevPAR increased 8.5% year over year, driven by strong performance in Saudi Arabia during Ramadan and key regional events, including the Muslim World League Conference. For full-year 2025, we expect RevPAR growth in the mid-single-digit range.

在歐洲，RevPAR 年成長 2.6%，歐洲大陸強勁的房價和入住率成長推動了該地區的業績。對於 2025 年全年，我們預計 RevPAR 成長率將保持在個位數以下。在中東和非洲地區，RevPAR 年增 8.5%，這得益於沙烏地阿拉伯在齋戒月期間的強勁表現以及包括穆斯林世界聯盟大會在內的主要地區活動。對於 2025 年全年，我們預計 RevPAR 成長率將達到中等個位數。

In the Asia Pacific region, first quarter RevPAR was flat year over year. RevPAR in APAC ex China increased 3.5%, led by strong performance in Japan, India and Korea. China RevPAR declined 3.1% in the quarter as performance was pressured by strong outbound travel during Chinese New Year and tough year over year comparisons. For full-year 2025, we expect RevPAR growth in Asia Pacific to be in the low single-digit range, assuming flat RevPAR in China.

在亞太地區，第一季 RevPAR 與去年同期持平。受日本、印度和韓國強勁表現的帶動，除中國外亞太地區的 RevPAR 成長了 3.5%。由於春節期間出境旺盛以及同比形勢嚴峻，業績承壓，中國區每間可用客房收入 (RevPAR) 本季下滑 3.1%。對於 2025 年全年，我們預計亞太地區的 RevPAR 成長率將處於低個位數範圍，假設中國地區的 RevPAR 成長率持平。

Turning to development. As Chris mentioned, for the quarter, we grew net units 7.2% and have more than 503,000 rooms in our pipeline, up 7% year over year, with more than half located outside the US, and nearly half under construction. Looking to the year ahead, we remain optimistic in our development story in both the US and international markets with continued strength in conversions as well as high-growth international markets.

轉向發展。正如克里斯所提到的，本季度，我們的淨單位增長了 7.2%，並且擁有超過 503,000 間客房，同比增長 7%，其中一半以上位於美國境外，近一半正在建設中。展望未來一年，我們對美國和國際市場的發展前景保持樂觀，轉換率和高成長國際市場將繼續保持強勁勢頭。

Moving to guidance. For the second quarter, we expect system-wide RevPAR growth to be roughly flat year over year. We expect adjusted EBITDA of between $940 million and $960 million, and diluted EPS adjusted for special items to be between $1.97 and $2.02.

轉向指導。對於第二季度，我們預計全系統的 RevPAR 成長將與去年同期基本持平。我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 在 9.4 億美元至 9.6 億美元之間，調整特殊項目的稀釋每股收益在 1.97 美元至 2.02 美元之間。

For full-year 2025, we expect RevPAR growth of 0% to 2%. We forecast adjusted EBITDA of between $3.65 billion and $3.71 billion and diluted EPS adjusted for special items of between $7.76 and $7.94. Please note that our guidance ranges do not incorporate future share repurchases.

對於 2025 年全年，我們預計 RevPAR 成長率為 0% 至 2%。我們預測調整後的 EBITDA 在 36.5 億美元至 37.1 億美元之間，調整特殊項目的稀釋每股收益在 7.76 美元至 7.94 美元之間。請注意，我們的指導範圍不包括未來的股票回購。

Moving on to capital return. We paid a cash dividend of $0.15 per share during the first quarter for a total of $37 million in dividends for the year. In the second quarter, our Board authorized a quarterly cash dividend of $0.15 per share.

繼續討論資本回報。我們在第一季支付了每股 0.15 美元的現金股息，全年股息總額為 3,700 萬美元。在第二季度，我們的董事會批准派發每股 0.15 美元的季度現金股利。

For the full year, we expect to return approximately $3.3 billion to shareholders in the form of buybacks and dividends. Further details on our first-quarter and full-year results can be found in the earnings release we issued earlier this morning.

就全年而言，我們預計將以回購和股利的形式向股東返還約 33 億美元。有關我們第一季和全年業績的更多詳情，請參閱我們今天早上發布的收益報告。

This completes our prepared remarks. We would now like to open the line for any questions you may have. We would like to speak with as many of you as possible, so we ask that you limit yourself to one question. Nick, can we have our first question, please?

我們的準備好的演講到此結束。我們現在願意開通熱線來回答您的任何問題。我們希望與盡可能多的人交談，因此我們要求您將問題限制在一個範圍內。尼克，我們可以問第一個問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Carlo Santarelli, Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

（操作員指示）Carlo Santarelli，德意志銀行。請繼續。

Hey, Chris, Kevin, thank you for taking my question. Good morning. So you guys have obviously not to date any one, but you've been through some cycles in the past over your careers in the business. And I guess my question is, based on what you're seeing, whether it's at the hotel level within the business, developers you're speaking to or kind of in the news in D.C., what is your perception of the setup around the much feared and often talked about recessionary environment? What are some of the things you guys are seeing right now, specifically outside of kind of near-term demand and stuff that gives you some pause or reminds you of prior time?

嘿，克里斯、凱文，謝謝你們回答我的問題。早安.所以你們顯然沒有和任何人約會，但是在過去的職業生涯中你們已經經歷了一些週期。我的問題是，根據您所看到的情況，無論是酒店業的層面，還是您所交談的開發商，亦或是華盛頓的新聞報道，您對人們所擔心和經常談論的經濟衰退環境有何看法？現在你們看到了哪些事情，特別是除了短期需求之外，有哪些事情讓你們停下來思考或回想起以前的事情？

Yeah. I think -- Carlo, thanks for the question, and that's probably the question on everybody's mind. My guess is we're going to get that question, 30 iterations of that question today. But hopefully, I'll do a decent job of answering it. I have lived through a lot of cycles.

是的。我認為——卡洛，謝謝你的提問，這可能是每個人心中的問題。我猜我們今天會得到這個問題，這個問題會重複 30 次。但希望我能很好地回答這個問題。我經歷過很多次循環。

We've been doing this for a long time, I think, approaching 40 years. So we've lived through lots of good times, lots of not so good times. And seeing lots of black swan events, normal recessionary downturns and the like. And they're all sort of unique. I think what's going on today, if you lift way above it.

我想我們已經這樣做了很長時間了，接近 40 年了。我們經歷過很多美好時光，也經歷過很多不那麼美好的時光。並且看到很多黑天鵝事件、正常的經濟衰退等等。而且它們都很獨特。我認為，如果你超越它，今天就會發生什麼。

And again, I'm not trying to be a [Pollyanna]. You asked me a question, I'm giving you my personal opinion, which may or may not be in the end, good news is you'll get to judge me as every quarter plays out.

再說一遍，我並不是想成為[波麗安娜]。你問了我一個問題，我給你我的個人意見，最終可能會或可能不會，好消息是你會根據每季的表現來評判我。

But I think right now, there's just so much going on, and I live in D.C., I live inside the Beltway. I'm talking to a lot of people on the Hill and in the administration to get, as best I can, a sense of what's going on. And I think it's fair to say there is a lot going on. And as a result, you see it in the market reaction across both the equity markets, the bond markets and everything else, consumer sentiment. There's just a fair amount of uncertainty.

但我認為現在發生了太多事情，而且我住在華盛頓特區，住在環城公路內。我正在與國會山莊和政府中的許多人交談，盡我所能了解正在發生的事情。我認為可以公平地說有很多事情正在發生。因此，您可以從股票市場、債券市場和其他所有市場的市場反應中看到這一點，包括消費者情緒。存在相當多的不確定性。

I would say based on lots of discussions and years of experience doing this, that I think at the moment, the risk in the marketplace is sort of weighted too heavily to the downside. If I look at what's going on in our business, certainly, we've seen a modest step back in demand patterns.

我想說，根據大量的討論和多年的經驗，我認為目前市場上的風險有點過於偏向下行。如果我觀察一下我們的業務狀況，我們肯定會看到需求模式略有倒退。

But at the moment, those seem to be relatively stable, which is why we gave the guidance and sort of suggested what we did at the midpoint, which is sort of what the midpoint is an expectation of things that -- the patterns we're seeing right now continue.

但目前，這些似乎相對穩定，這就是我們給出指導並建議我們在中點所做的事情的原因，這有點像中點是對事物的預期 - 我們現在看到的模式仍在繼續。

I think there's a lot of seismic change that this administration here in the United States is trying to accomplish. You can't have -- move that much cheese, so to speak, without rattling a lot of cages. That doesn't mean it necessarily doesn't end up in a good place. My own view is in the process of doing it, though -- again, I think the market is sort of asymmetrically taking the risk of the downside. I think it's a much more equally weighted risk.

我認為美國本屆政府正在努力實現許多重大變革。可以這麼說，如果你不震動很多籠子，你就不可能移動那麼多起司。這並不意味著它最終不會有一個好結果。不過，我自己的觀點是，市場正不對稱地承擔下行風險。我認為這是一個更平等的風險。

I'm an optimist by nature, so I'll fully declare. I would actually say I think the risk over intermediate to longer term is probably should be more weighted on the upside. But let's just say, I think to be conservative, it's a much more equally weighted risk than what everybody is thinking and talking about today.

我天生就是個樂觀主義者，所以我會完全宣稱。我實際上想說，我認為中期和長期的風險可能應該更偏向上行。但是，我認為，保守地說，它的風險比今天大家所想和談論的風險要大得多。

Why do I think that? Again, I could be wrong, but I think if you really lift up and look at what's going on, you have real progress being made. It's choppy, and it's -- there's a lot of noise, but the legislative process is grinding through.

我為什麼會這麼想？再說一次，我可能是錯的，但我認為如果你真正振作起來，看看正在發生的事情，你就會取得真正的進步。雖然過程並不順利，而且有很多噪音，但立法過程仍在順利進行中。

And I think there is a very good probability that sometime this summer, you're going to see one big bill get done that's going to deal with a lot of the regulatory reform, energy, releasing sort of the shackles from the energy industry and making permanent the 2017 tax cuts and also incrementally adding, for certain folks, no tax on tips, social security for the elderly and a whole bunch of other things that are going to be positive. I think there's a reasonable probability all that gets done.

我認為很有可能在今年夏天的某個時候，你會看到一項重大法案被通過，該法案將處理許多監管改革、能源問題，釋放能源行業的桎梏，永久實施 2017 年的減稅政策，並逐步增加對某些人群的小費免稅、老年人社會保障以及一系列其他積極因素。我認為所有事情都有相當大的可能性能夠完成。

Obviously, what's rattled the markets -- and I'm not an economist, so I can pontificate and you guys on the call can judge for yourself. There's lots of ways of doing things. This is the way they've chosen to do it. I think the desire is to ultimately end up with a fair deal with our biggest trading partners around the world.

顯然，是什麼震動了市場——我不是經濟學家，所以我只能發表高談闊論，你們在電話會議上可以自己判斷。做事的方法有很多種。這是他們選擇的方式。我認為我們的最終願望是與全球最大的貿易夥伴達成公平協議。

My own belief is that as the next -- as you're getting the legislative process done on the tax and regulatory and energy, you're going to see a bunch of these deals with some of our biggest trading partners come to fruition which is going to create maybe not perfect stability, but a lot more stability, a lot more certainty of sort of what the deals look like, what the future is.

我個人的信念是，隨著下一步——稅收、監管和能源方面的立法程序的完成，你會看到我們與一些最大貿易夥伴達成的一系列協議取得成果，這也許不會帶來完美的穩定性，但會帶來更多的穩定性，對協議的前景和未來會更加確定。

And I think it's not crazy to think that all that starts to come together this summer. And as a result, when you get to the second half of the year, you could be in a very different place. If you look underneath it all in terms of like what's really going on in employment, wage growth and corporate America's balance sheet and profit, all of the underlying economy is still really strong.

我認為，所有這一切將在今年夏天開始實現，這並不瘋狂。因此，當你進入下半年時，你可能會處於一個非常不同的情況。如果你從就業、薪資成長以及美國企業的資產負債表和利潤等方面來深入觀察，你會發現整個經濟基礎仍然非常強勁。

What's going on right now is this sort of asymmetrical risk to the downside because of a high degree of uncertainty. My own belief is you will see some of that, if not a lot of that uncertainty wane over the next couple of quarters, and that will allow the underlying strength of the economy to shine through again.

目前的情況是由於高度的不確定性而導致的這種不對稱下行風險。我個人的信念是，你會看到其中的一些，如果不是很多不確定性在接下來的幾季中減弱，這將使經濟的潛在實力再次顯現。

And so that's why I know a lot of companies have not pulled guidance and I'm not being critical. When we talked about it, my view is very simple. We know more about our business than anybody else. I hope we do and think we do. And I feel like we have an obligation, even in uncertain times to give you a sense of the various outcomes that we think based on assumptions, which is why we gave you a range of zero to two, and gave you the basis of assumptions. I believe we've tried to be as scientific as we can. I feel very good about like how we thought that through.

這就是為什麼我知道很多公司沒有撤回指引，而我並不是批評他們。當我們談論它時，我的觀點非常簡單。我們比任何人都更了解我們的業務。我希望我們能做到，並且我認為我們能做到。而且我覺得我們有義務，即使在不確定的時期，也要讓你們了解我們基於假設所想到的各種結果，這就是為什麼我們給了你們從零到二的範圍，並給了你們假設的基礎。我相信我們已經盡力做到科學了。我對我們的思考方式感到非常滿意。

And the good news is we report every quarter, and we'll have -- next time we report, we'll have a quarter behind us. We'll have much better sight lines into how the second half of the year is developing, and we'll update you.

好消息是我們每季都會發布報告，下次發布報告時，我們已經有一個季度沒有報告了。我們將更了解下半年的發展情況，並向您通報最新情況。

But that's a long-winded way of saying having been around doing this a long time, anytime you have like seismic change, I don't care what it is like, whether it's black swan events of like [9/11] or the -- great recession or COVID, I mean obviously, this is nothing like any of those. There's a reaction. And my own experience says there's an overreaction.

但這是一種冗長的說法，我已經做了很長時間了，任何時候發生像地震一樣的變化，我不在乎它是什麼樣的，無論是像 [9/11] 這樣的黑天鵝事件，還是大衰退或 COVID，我的意思是，顯然，這與其中任何一個都不一樣。有反應了。而我的經驗表明，這種反應有些過度了。

And so right now, there's a lot of uncertainty. I think there's a bit of an overreaction to it. And so again, I would say sort of reasonably conservatively, I think that it should be much more equally weighted than what we're experiencing today.

所以現在存在著很多不確定性。我認為對此有點反應過度了。因此，我再次以相當保守的方式說，我認為它應該比我們今天所經歷的更加平等。

Thanks, Chris. Appreciate it.

謝謝，克里斯。非常感謝。

Shaun Kelley, Bank of America.

美國銀行的肖恩凱利 (Shaun Kelley)。

Hi, good morning, everyone. Chris or Kevin, wondering if we could just talk about the development environment a little bit. We get a lot of questions about sort of how the uncertainty today is going to filter through the development landscape, particularly around trade and tariffs.

大家好，早安。克里斯或凱文，想知道我們是否可以稍微談論開發環境。我們收到很多問題，關於當今的不確定性將如何影響發展格局，特別是在貿易和關稅方面。

So could you sort of elaborate on sort of the comments that you saw or the trajectory that you saw during the quarter? How specifically is that factoring into the way developers are proceeding with current projects, thinking about possibly delaying, things like signings, moving into in construction, just what's the behavior out there on the development side and what is the risk, if any to sort of the way you see nug shaping up for the year? Thanks.

那麼，您能否詳細說明您所看到的評論或本季的發展軌跡？這具體如何影響開發商推進當前專案的方式，考慮可能的延遲，簽約、進入施工階段等事宜，開發方面的行為是什麼樣的，以及如果有的話，對您來說今年的發展有什麼風險？謝謝。

Yeah, I mean, we don't give guidance lightly as I just tried to suggest in the same, whether it's on same store or Uniro, we spend. Sean, as I'm sure, and others in the call know, we don't just make it up. It's super granular analysis, and when we give guidance, it's because we feel really good about it.

是的，我的意思是，我們不會輕易給出指導，正如我剛才嘗試建議的那樣，無論是在同一家商店還是在 Uniro，我們都會花錢。肖恩，我確信，電話中的其他人也知道，我們並不是憑空捏造的。這是超級精細的分析，當我們給予指導時，是因為我們對此感覺非常好。

I mean, the fact is for this year, while we still have a lot of work to do as always to our development teams, thank you for that work, and we still have in the year for the year conversions you could see in the first quarter we have. Huge amount of momentum on conversions, the things that are under new under development and new construction, those are in process.

我的意思是，事實是，就今年而言，我們仍然有很多工作要做，就像我們的開發團隊一樣，感謝你們所做的工作，而且我們仍然有今年的轉換，你可以在第一季看到我們所做的。轉換方面有著巨大的動力，正在開發和建設的新項目正在進行中。

If they're going to deliver this year, they're not, largely getting close to being done, so, we feel very good about our ability to deliver within those ranges, by the way, starting to look at next year again, we have a pipeline of over 1.5 million rooms, and half of that under construction.

如果他們今年要交付，那麼基本上就不會了，所以，我們對在這些範圍內交付的能力感到非常滿意，順便說一下，開始再次展望明年，我們有超過 150 萬間客房，其中一半正在建設中。

A lot of momentum on conversions. We feel good about being able to do it again next year. I know you didn't ask that. In terms of what's going on real time sort of relates to my first answer a little bit. I mean, not much. I mean, if you look at the quarter, okay, the data suggests everything looks great. I mean, your signings are up, your starts are up, deliveries are up on a year-over-year basis.

轉換的勢頭強勁。我們很高興明年能夠再次舉辦這樣的活動。我知道你沒有問這個。就即時發生的事情而言，有點與我的第一個回答相關。我的意思是，不多。我的意思是，如果你看一下這個季度，好吧，數據表明一切看起來都很棒。我的意思是，你的簽約數量、你的首發數量和交付數量同比都在增加。

All that is, I think all that is fine. I think all of those things, even as we forecast the full year are going to are going to remain positive. I think, being objective, we talk to owners all the time, a lot of, we know all of our owners and many of them are very close friends.

所有這些，我認為都很好。我認為所有這些事情，即使我們預測全年仍將保持積極態勢。我認為，客觀地說，我們一直與業主交談，我們認識很多業主，他們中的許多人都是非常親密的朋友。

I mean, not unlike we've seen a little bit with customers, everybody's kind of like stepping back a little bit and saying like I just want to like understand where the world is going, but so far we haven't seen any real any real impact.

我的意思是，與我們在客戶身上看到的一樣，每個人都有點退後一步，說我只是想了解世界的發展方向，但到目前為止，我們還沒有看到任何真正的影響。

And remember, I mean, it's not that we couldn't, and if this persists, if I'm wrong and the uncertainty at this level persists for a longer period of time, yes, I think it will have, it's just logical rational to think it would have some impact. Now that doesn't really mean much for this year or a bunch of next year because a lot of that stuff's in production. It's further out.

請記住，我的意思是，這並不是說我們不能，如果這種情況持續下去，如果我錯了，並且這種程度的不確定性持續較長時間，是的，我認為它會產生影響，認為它會產生一些影響是合乎邏輯的。這對今年或明年來說並沒有多大意義，因為很多東西都在生產中。那裡比較遠。

However, if I'm right and things do start in the second half of the year to sort of settle down, I don't think you have to believe that this has a lot of impact. And let's remember, and I grew up on that side of the business, our development community, and I was, we're optimist by nature, the development community, they -- they're, mostly a bunch of small and medium sized players, and this is their business and they have -- they've been doing it a long time, they have a very long view of the business.

然而，如果我是對的，而且事情確實在下半年開始逐漸平息，我認為你不必相信這會產生很大的影響。讓我們記住，我是在這個行業的這個領域，也就是我們的開發社區中長大的，我天生就是樂觀主義者，開發社區，他們——他們，大多是一群中小型參與者，這是他們的業務，他們——他們已經做了很長時間，他們對業務有非常長遠的眼光。

And so yeah, I mean when things rattle their cage they may slow down and take a deep breath, but underneath it all, as they've been committing the land and trying to get things into production, their desire is really to get them into production short something really meaningful happening, and that that is not what we're in, this is not like COVID or the great recession or any of these, this is not that, okay?

所以，是的，我的意思是，當事情讓他們感到不安時，他們可能會放慢腳步，深吸一口氣，但在這一切的背後，當他們投入土地並試圖將產品投入生產時，他們真正的願望是讓產品投入生產，以便發生一些真正有意義的事情，而這不是我們所處的情況，這不像 COVID 或大衰退或任何這些，這不是那樣，好嗎？

And so again, I think the world is sort of asymmetrically, sort of risk to the downside. I'm much more equally weighted and I would say again, if I amalgamate all the conversations I'm having with our development community, I'd say they're more akin to my level of thinking.

因此，我認為世界是有點不對稱的，有點下行風險。我的看法更加平等，我想再說一遍，如果我把我與開發社群的所有對話結合起來，我會說它們更接近我的思維層次。

So I think part of it, like I think this year, next year, we got to work hard. I think, we'll be able to deliver what we want to deliver. As you get down to '27, '28, there is the possibility if you end up in a very long period of time of very high uncertainty that people slow down some of the things they're doing.

所以我認為部分原因在於，像是今年、明年，我們必須努力工作。我認為，我們能夠實現我們想要實現的目標。當你進入 27、28 年時，如果你處於一段很長的高度不確定的時期內，人們可能會放慢他們正在做的一些事情。

That's not what's happening now, okay, to be clear, and the reality is in more challenging times we get, we pick up the slack like we've done this year very heavily in conversions. People, in good times they want to do conversions with us and, more uncertain times they really want to do conversions with us because they want the com the safety and the comfort being in a system like ours that, has, 100 millions of loyalty members and, drives such strong commercial performance. So, there is sort of a counter countervailing or counterbalancing impact there. So I think that answered it. I mean, not see. I mean, the truth is just, there's no there yet.

好吧，要明確的是，現在的情況並非如此，現實情況是，在我們面臨更具挑戰性的時期，我們會彌補不足，就像我們今年在轉換方面所做的那樣。在經濟情勢好的時候，人們希望與我們進行轉換；而在情況更加不確定的時候，他們也確實希望與我們進行轉換，因為他們希望在像我們這樣的系統中獲得安全性和舒適性，我們擁有 1 億忠誠會員，並能推動如此強勁的商業表現。因此，這其中存在著一種抵消或平衡的影響。所以我認為這回答了這個問題。我的意思是，看不到。我的意思是，事實是，目前還沒有。

And again, I think if I'm hopefully right about what starts to happen in the second half of the year, I think, not to be a Pollyanna, I think we can -- I don't think we have to see meaningful impact.

而且，我認為，如果我對下半年將要發生的事情的預測是正確的，那麼，我認為，不要盲目樂觀，我認為我們可以——我認為我們不必看到有意義的影響。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Stephen Grambling, Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

摩根士丹利的史蒂芬‧格蘭布林。請繼續。

Hi, thanks. I hate to focus on maybe the downside case, but with the mindset of preparing for the worst and hoping for the best, I guess if the market or economy does take a turn lower, where would you generally expect to see that deterioration first in this environment? And what levers or actions would you take to pivot the business not only to weather that storm, but to improve the competitive positioning long term?

你好，謝謝。我不喜歡關注可能出現的不利情況，但本著做最壞打算、抱最好的希望的心態，我想，如果市場或經濟確實出現下滑，在這種環境下，你通常會在哪里首先看到這種惡化？您會採取哪些手段或行動來調整業務，不僅是為了渡過難關，而且是為了長期提高競爭地位？

Listen, it's hard to prognosticate. As I said, I gave you my view of what I think is happening. If the economy -- and there is always some risk that it goes -- the risk is to the downside and that's where the world heads.

聽著，這很難預測。正如我所說的，我已經向你們介紹了我對正在發生的事情的看法。如果經濟——而且它總是存在一些風險——風險就是下行，而這正是世界的發展方向。

I think -- and Kevin may want to jump on top of this, too. I feel really good about where we are. I mean, the fact of the matter is the business model, as you know, is super resilient. Just the basic model of capital-light business, super high margin, 70%-plus EBITDA margin business. We're at some of the lowest levels of leverage that we've had, no big maturities, super significant access to liquidity.

我認為——凱文可能也想參與其中。我對我們的現狀感到非常滿意。我的意思是，事實上，如你所知，這種商業模式具有超強的彈性。只是輕資本業務、超高利潤率、EBITDA 利潤率超過 70% 的業務的基本模式。我們的槓桿率處於歷史最低水平，沒有大額到期債務，流動性取得管道極為暢通。

We have been hyper efficient. I think everybody would have to see versus competition and everything else on the G&A side.

我們的效率非常高。我認為每個人都必須考慮競爭以及一般和行政方面的其他一切因素。

So I mean, listen, we were -- I could say a lot of those similar things. We went into COVID, and the reality is COVID was hard, but we sort of sailed through COVID. And what I would say, Stephen, is like those -- I don't want that.

所以我的意思是，聽著，我們——我可以說很多類似的事情。我們陷入了 COVID 危機，現實情況是 COVID 危機很嚴重，但我們還是順利度過了 COVID。而我想說的是，史蒂芬，我不想要那樣的東西。

I don't wish that upon us, and I don't think that's where we're going, but we are fully prepared for whatever eventuality there is. And the reality is, I think every time that we have seen -- I'd say this to our teams all the time.

我不希望發生這種情況，我也不認為我們會走向這樣的結局，但我們已經做好了充分的準備來應對任何可能發生的情況。事實是，我想每次我們看到這種情況時——我都會一直對我們的團隊說這句話。

Every time we have seen these really disrupted environments, significant downdrafts in the macroeconomic conditions because of that strength and resiliency. And because this team has been together a long time and is battle tested, we have been able to really, I think, outmaneuver our competition and put ourselves in an even better position than we were before.

每當我們看到這些真正混亂的環境時，宏觀經濟狀況就會因為這種力量和彈性而大幅下滑。而且由於這支隊伍已經在一起很長時間並且經過了實戰考驗，我認為我們能夠真正戰勝競爭對手，並使自己處於比以前更有利的地位。

I mean, COVID being sort of Exhibit A. I mean, our -- we're over 1,000 basis point higher margin business from the peaks of pre-COVID to now. Some -- there are a lot of reasons for that, but some of that is we did a whole bunch of things during COVID to generate incremental margin and efficiency, as well as to pivot in a bunch of interesting ways with different segments of business, SMBs and otherwise.

我的意思是，COVID 就像是證據 A。我的意思是，從 COVID 之前的高峰到現在，我們的利潤率業務高出了 1,000 個基點。有一些——這有很多原因，但其中一些原因是我們在 COVID 期間做了很多事情來產生增量利潤和效率，以及針對不同業務部門、中小企業和其他部門以多種有趣的方式進行調整。

So I'm not going to be specific other than say I think we're ready for whatever comes our way. I think we're a really seasoned team that knows how to address issues. Our attitude will be -- we're in great shape. We have a steady hand on the wheel and take advantage of whatever comes our way to make the company better to deliver better performance for our owners and ultimately deliver better growth. So that translates into better opportunities for our shareholder base.

因此，我不會說得特別具體，我只能說，我認為我們已經做好了應對任何挑戰的準備。我認為我們是一支經驗豐富的團隊，知道如何解決問題。我們的態度是──我們狀態很好。我們穩穩地掌控方向盤，充分利用一切機會，讓公司變得更好，為我們的所有者提供更好的業績，並最終實現更好的成長。因此，這意味著我們的股東將獲得更好的機會。

Makes sense. Thank you.

有道理。謝謝。

David Katz, Jefferies. Please go ahead.

傑富瑞的戴維·卡茨。請繼續。

Morning, everybody. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to -- I appreciate all the big picture commentary. I wanted to just focus on -- Chris, something you indicated about APAC and China, in particular, and gaining some share.

大家早安。感謝您回答我的問題。我想——我欣賞所有的宏觀評論。我只想關注——克里斯，你特別提到了有關亞太地區和中國以及獲得一些份額的事情。

Can you provide us with a little bit of color on the economic intensity of those deals relative to the totality? And some of the same question you just answered, but more specifically to that area of the world and what you're seeing on the ground development-wise? Thank you.

您能否向我們稍微介紹一下這些交易相對於整體的經濟強度？您剛才回答了一些相同的問題，但更具體地說是針對那個地區以及您在當地發展方面看到的情況？謝謝。

Yeah, I think, David, I'll take this one. I think we've talked about -- I mean, look, we gave you some -- as Chris talked about earlier, our business in China is large and still keeps going strong. Part of that business in China, as I think maybe what you're getting at, is in a joint venture format for Hampton and Hilton Garden Inn, where we share the economics. But the reality is we're not investing capital.

是的，大衛，我想，我會選擇這個。我想我們已經討論過了——我的意思是，你看，我們給了你一些——正如克里斯之前提到的，我們在中國的業務規模很大，而且仍然保持強勁。我想您可能明白，在中國，部分業務是採用漢普頓酒店和希爾頓花園酒店的合資形式，雙方共享經濟利益。但現實是，我們並沒有投入資本。

And every one of those deals is, like a lot of our franchise deals, no capital, infinite yield, and we're growing a huge presence and building a big brand name in China on the backs of those deals. So we've been very transparent about the economics on those deals.

就像我們的許多特許經營交易一樣，每一筆交易都是無需資本、收益無限的，而且我們憑藉這些交易在中國擴大了影響力，並建立了大品牌。因此，我們對這些交易的經濟狀況非常透明。

The rest of it is we continue to grow outside of those joint ventures, both in China and in other parts of the world, our economics are at market, right? And so our economics in terms of the way you think about fees per room growing over time. We've talked about that. We think for a bunch of reasons as we continue to do the bulk of our new deals at our current distribution level as RevPAR continues to grow as we continue to raise royalty rates as deals roll over, we're going to grow our fees per room over time. And again, we're not investing capital in these regions.

剩下的就是我們在這些合資企業之外繼續發展，無論是在中國還是在世界其他地區，我們的經濟都處於市場水平，對嗎？因此，從我們的經濟學角度來看，每間客房的費用會隨著時間的推移而增加。我們已經討論過這個了。我們認為，出於多種原因，隨著我們繼續以目前的分銷水平進行大部分新交易，隨著每間可用客房收入 (RevPAR) 的不斷增長，隨著交易的進行，我們繼續提高特許權使用費率，我們將隨著時間的推移增加每間客房的費用。再說一次，我們不會在這些地區投資。

So big demand for our -- and then one more thing I'd add about China is we are now starting to grow in a big way, a lot of our brands outside of China. So Hilton Garden Inn remains a great story in China. We have over 100 hotels open -- over 100 Hilton Garden Inns opened in China and nearly 200 more coming in the pipeline, right? So that -- those deals are at market rates, full fees, higher RevPAR than the Hamptons and Hilton Garden Inns, and on it goes across those regions through Southeast Asia.

我們的需求很大——關於中國，我想補充一點，我們的許多品牌現在都開始在中國以外大規模發展。因此，希爾頓花園酒店在中國仍然是一個偉大的故事。我們在中國已開設了 100 多家酒店——希爾頓花園酒店已在中國開設了 100 多家，還有近 200 家酒店正在籌備中，對嗎？因此，這些交易均以市場價​​格進行，收取全額費用，每間可用客房收入 (RevPAR) 高於漢普頓酒店和希爾頓花園酒店，並且遍及東南亞地區。

Middle East remains a good story. We talked about Luxury Lifestyle being up to 1,000 hotels, right? As we gain momentum in these brands across the spectrum, there's really nothing that I would call out that should change the trajectory of our economics over time.

中東依然是一個好故事。我們討論過豪華生活風格酒店的數量多達 1,000 家，對嗎？隨著我們在各個領域的這些品牌獲得發展勢頭，我認為沒有什麼能改變我們的經濟發展軌跡。

Thank you. Appreciate it.

謝謝。非常感謝。

Sure.

當然。

Smedes Rose, Citi.

花旗銀行的斯梅德斯‧羅斯 (Smedes Rose)。

Hi, thank you. You mentioned, Chris, the strength in Group in the first quarter. I think you said up 6%. And I was just wondering if you could provide a little more commentary around maybe what you're seeing through the balance of the year, if you -- especially from like kind of the larger kind of corporate group side? Because that can sometimes just be a proxy, I think for how businesses are thinking about sending people on the road, et cetera. So just any updated color you have there would be of interest?

你好，謝謝。克里斯，您提到了第一季集團的實力。我認為您說的是上漲 6%。我只是想知道您是否可以就您對今年餘下時間的看法提供更多評論，特別是從大型企業集團的角度來看？因為有時這可能只是一種代理，我認為企業正在考慮如何派遣員工上路等等。那麼，您對任何更新的顏色都會感興趣嗎？

Yeah, I mean, we still feel good about it for the full year. If you think about our guidance of zero to two. I think even at the low end of that Group is sort of at the higher end of that range. And as you get up into the mid and higher, it's above the high end of the range.

是的，我的意思是，我們對全年的表現仍然感到滿意。如果你考慮一下我們對零到二的指導。我認為，即使該集團的低端也處於該範圍的高端。當你進入中高端時，它就高於範圍的高端。

So we feel good about it. It's not -- and that is trust, but verify. I think Ronald Reagan said that. We have a great Group position on the books. Group position is up in the mid-single digits across the system, so it sort of supports that.

因此我們對此感覺良好。事實並非如此——這是信任，但需要驗證。我認為羅納德·雷根說過這句話。我們在集團中擁有良好的地位。整個系統的集團排名上升了中等個位數，因此這在某種程度上支持了這一點。

That Group position is a little bit lower than it had been for a couple of important reasons. One, as you get into the year, it always comes down. And two, there's no question that sort of some of the uncertainty in the environment has affected booking patterns across all segments. I mean, that's the one thing I'd say is right, when you have this kind of uncertainty, everybody -- I sort of said it in my comments, a little bit of a great wait and see. Let's see where it goes.

由於幾個重要原因，該集團的排名比以前略低。首先，隨著時間的流逝，它總是會下降。其次，毫無疑問，環境中的某些不確定性已經影響了所有領域的預訂模式。我的意思是，我想說的對的一件事是，當你有這種不確定性時，每個人——我在我的評論中說過，需要等待一段時間再觀察。讓我們看看它會去哪裡。

So what do they do? They don't stop traveling, they don't stop running their businesses. They don't stop taking vacations. They may do a little bit less of it or they wait a little bit more to the last minute.

那他們做什麼呢？他們沒有停止旅行，也沒有停止經營生意。他們沒有停止休假。他們可能會少做一點，或等到最後一刻才做。

And so as you look at like short-term group bookings -- I think I said in my comments, they're sort of flat year over year, which is not bad. But if you went further out, they're a little bit down because I think people are thinking, well, I don't want to plan further in the future at this exact moment, but I know I got to do it. And so in fact, in the short intermediate numbers, they're still showing up. If you look at into next year, we're in the teens. We're up -- our group position, back to group, is up for '26 in the teens.

因此，當您查看短期團體預訂時 - 我想我在評論中說過，它們與去年同期相比持平，這並不壞。但是如果你走得更遠，他們就會有點沮喪，因為我認為人們在想，好吧，我現在不想為未來做進一步的計劃，但我知道我必須這樣做。事實上，在短期中間數字中，它們仍然會出現。如果你展望明年，我們會發現我們正處於十幾歲的階段。我們上升了——回到小組之後，我們的排名上升到了 26 名。

So that sort of defies a little bit, but a lot of that has been on the book. So we feel good that Group will definitely lead the pack in terms of segments. People are showing up, they're consuming the Group room nights.

這有點難以接受，但其中許多內容已經寫在書上了。因此，我們相信，集團必將在各個領域處於領先地位。人們紛紛前來，佔用團體客房。

The pace of booking in the last six weeks or so is less than it had been just because of what's going on. Again, my belief is, as we get, hopefully, to a little bit more with a little more certainty in the environment, there's no reason sort of underneath at all why I think we wouldn't see it tick up. But again, we're still in the -- we're in the mid-single digits, and I think we've been reasonably conservative in sort of the guidance -- the Group component of the guidance we've given.

由於目前的情況，過去六週左右的預訂速度比以前有所下降。再說一次，我相信，隨著我們對環境的確定性越來越高，我認為我們沒有理由不看到它好轉。但是，我們仍然處於 - 我們處於中等個位數，我認為我們在指導方面 - 我們給出的指導的集團部分 - 是相當保守的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Robin Farley, UBS.

瑞銀的羅賓法利。

Great, thanks. I just wanted to clarify, Kevin mentioned in the opening remarks that some of the outperformance in the non-RevPAR fee-related was timing-related or maybe it was something in G&A, but just there was something timing related.

太好了，謝謝。我只是想澄清一下，凱文在開場白中提到，非 RevPAR 費用相關的部分優異表現是與時間相關的，或者可能是 G&A 方面的一些表現，但只是與時間有關。

So I just wanted to get some clarity on that? And then if I could also just sort of ask for a clarification on the comments about fee revenue per room? Because I do think that's been a big question that a lot of investors have asked, and I think your commentary about expecting that to continue to grow as is better than expected.

所以我只是想弄清楚這一點？然後我是否也可以要求澄清有關每間客房費用收入的評論？因為我確實認為這是許多投資者提出的一個大問題，而且我認為您關於預期其將繼續增長的評論比預期的要好。

So I just want to make sure I understood, I think it was Kevin's comments about -- was the idea that the fee revenue per room in Asia ex China was growing faster, and that's why you -- the fee revenue growth coming from China with the sort of more shared economics wasn't a concern for you in terms of that slowing? Or I just want to make sure we --

所以我只是想確保我理解了，我認為這是凱文的評論——這個想法是，除中國之外的亞洲地區每間客房的費用收入增長更快，這就是為什麼你——來自中國這種更加共享的經濟的費用收入增長並不是你擔心的放緩？或者我只是想確保我們--

Well, for China, we can talk -- Kevin will talk about fees. In China, the fee per room growth from the point of where we are is going up simply because we really did these MLAs to build a broad sort of network effect, which has been incredibly successful. I think we've outmaneuvered everybody.

好吧，對於中國，我們可以談談——凱文將談論費用。在中國，從我們現在的水平來看，每間客房的費用一直在增長，因為我們確實透過這些 MLA 建立了廣泛的網路效應，而且這一舉措取得了令人難以置信的成功。我認為我們已經戰勝了所有人。

But now what we're doing is franchising. We've built a team and we're franchising, particularly with Garden Inn and other brands, our own brands. And so if you look at the sort of fees per room that we're generating now and you look forward, a disproportionate piece of it is going to come from full fee franchise deals that we're doing with our other brands. So that's why that's growing.

但現在我們做的是特許經營。我們已經組建了一支團隊，並且正在進行特許經營，特別是與花園酒店和其他品牌以及我們自己的品牌合作。因此，如果您看一下我們現在產生的每間客房的費用並展望未來，您會發現其中很大一部分將來自我們與其他品牌達成的全額費用特許經營協議。這就是它不斷增長的原因。

On fees per room -- I'll let Kevin take the first one. On fees per room, I think Kevin already said it. It's just math. I mean I say this to investors all the time, like it isn't that complicated. We have -- our pipeline is pretty consistent with our existing supply.

關於每個房間的費用——我會讓凱文先付第一個。關於每個房間的費用，我想凱文已經說過了。這只是數學。我的意思是我一直對投資人這麼說，好像事情並沒有那麼複雜。我們的管道與我們現有的供應非常一致。

We talked about China individually. We continue to have rising RevPAR, and we continue to drive share gains. A large part of our growth is from our highest paying royalty fee brands, and we continue to move the royalties over time on our brands systematically higher.

我們分別談論了中國問題。我們的每間可用客房收入 (RevPAR) 持續上升，我們的市場份額也持續成長。我們的成長很大一部分來自於支付特許權使用費最高的品牌，我們會隨著時間的推移系統地提高我們品牌的特許權使用費。

And when you just do the math, which we do, obviously, in long-range models, fees per room are going to go up as long as we look at it. We do 10-year models, and fees per room are going to go up every year in those models.

當我們進行計算時，很顯然，在長期模型中，只要我們觀察，每個房間的費用就會上漲。我們採用的是 10 年模型，在這些模型中，每間客房的費用每年都會上漲。

There's really -- it's just -- it's -- as I said, it's sort of structural in math, based on those inputs.

確實 — — 它只是 — — 它 — — 正如我所說，它是一種基於這些輸入的數學結構。

Yeah. And then so then -- yes. And that covers it, Robin. I was speaking to the broader fees per room. But yes, I mean coming out of China, our fee per room growth from where we are today, we'll be actually at a higher rate of growth than the rest of the business. But I think it's important to focus on the entire business. Because you're right, we do get that question a lot.

是的。那麼那麼——是的。就這樣吧，羅賓。我指的是每個房間的更廣泛費用。但是的，我的意思是，從中國市場來看，我們的每間客房費用成長率實際上會高於其他業務的成長速度。但我認為專注於整個業務很重要。因為你是對的，我們確實常被問到這個問題。

And then back to the non-RevPAR-driven fees and timing, they're somewhat connected and they're somewhat separate. So a large part of addressing the beat and in terms of what we're carrying through for the rest of the year, we wanted people to understand that a decent chunk -- actually, sort of the vast majority of the beat for the first quarter was timing. Some of that was timing in non-RevPAR-driven fees, and some of that was timing in other parts of the business.

然後回到非 RevPAR 驅動的費用和時間，它們有點聯繫，但又有點分離。因此，在解決這個問題以及我們在今年剩餘時間內要採取的措施方面，我們希望人們明白，相當一部分——實際上，第一季的絕大部分問題都與時間有關。其中一些是非 RevPAR 驅動費用的時間安排，還有一些是業務其他部分的時間表。

Separately, non-RevPAR-driven fees across the board -- I wouldn't point to any one component, whether that's purchasing or credit cards or HGV or other things -- did outperform meaningfully in the first quarter and will continue to outperform over the course of the year, and we expect those non-RevPAR-driven fees to be above algorithm both for the year and going forward. We don't give a lot more specific guidance than that. But that's how I would characterize that.

另外，所有非 RevPAR 驅動的費用（我不會指出任何一個組成部分，無論是購買、信用卡、重型貨車還是其他東西）在第一季確實表現優異，並將在今年繼續表現出色，我們預計這些非 RevPAR 驅動的費用在今年和未來都將高於演算法。我們不會給出比這更具體的指導。但這就是我對此的描述。

Great, thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

Brandt Montour, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的布蘭特‧蒙圖爾 (Brandt Montour)。

Hi, good morning everybody. Thanks for taking my question. Chris, Kevin, could you guys unpack the two guidance, the RevPAR guidance a little bit more specifically looking at, what you're expecting for domestic RevPAR versus international and then within domestic, if you could just unpack that comment about group being better than transient -- on the transient side, which of the transient segments are growing better or worse in sort of real time here. Thanks.

嗨，大家早安。感謝您回答我的問題。克里斯、凱文，你們能否更具體地解釋一下這兩項指導，即 RevPAR 指導，看看您對國內 RevPAR 與國際 RevPAR 的預期，然後在國內，如果您可以解釋一下關於團體優於臨時的評論 - 在臨時方面，哪些臨時部分在這裡實時增長更好或更差。謝謝。

Yeah, I think for the second quarter, it's the same story, just with a little bit of -- I don't know if idiosyncratic is the right way to say it, some timing issues in the second quarter largely driven by the impact of the Easter shift. Right? So I think the way to think about this segment is Group will continue to lead, Business Transient will be next, and then we expect Leisure conditions in the near term given the uncertainty to remain softer.

是的，我認為第二季的情況是一樣的，只是有一點點——我不知道用「特質」來形容是否正確，第二季的一些時間問題主要是受到復活節轉變的影響。正確的？因此，我認為看待這個細分市場的方式是，集團將繼續領先，商務臨時業務將是其次，然後，考慮到不確定性，我們預計短期內休閒狀況將保持疲軟。

I think as you think about domestic versus international, I would think about domestic, which is still the large driver of the outcome, being about the same as the guidance being roughly flat, and then the international parts of the business in line with what we've said, right? So Europe, a little bit better; Middle East, better than Europe; APAC ex China, positive; and China, a little bit negative. I think it's just the same story, just a little bit more muted because of the calendar shift.

我認為，當您考慮國內和國際時，我會考慮國內，這仍然是結果的主要驅動力，與指導大致持平，然後業務的國際部分與我們所說的一致，對嗎？歐洲的情況稍微好一點；中東，比歐洲好；中國以外的亞太地區呈現正態勢；而中國則有點負面。我認為這只是同一個故事，只是因為日曆的變化而變得更加平淡。

Very helpful. Thanks, Kevin.

非常有幫助。謝謝，凱文。

Lizzie Dove, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的莉齊‧多夫 (Lizzie Dove)。

Hi there, thanks for taking the question. I just wanted to kind of zoom in a little bit on what the drivers of what was assumed in the kind of lowering of the EBITDA outlook? I guess, specifically in terms of any pressure from IMF participation, especially in the US or any kind of slowdown on the non-RevPAR side? I know, Kevin, you said those are still strong. I think you've given like the algo of like 12% to 14% in the past at the Investor Day. I'm curious if that still holds true today?

您好，感謝您提出這個問題。我只是想稍微詳細了解一下導致 EBITDA 前景下調的因素有哪些？我想，具體來說，是來自國際貨幣基金組織參與的壓力，特別是在美國，還是非 RevPAR 方面的任何形式的放緩？我知道，凱文，你說那些仍然很強大。我認為您在過去的投資者日上給出了 12% 到 14% 的演算法。我很好奇今天這是否仍然成立？

Yeah, I think obviously -- Lizzie, I'll take the second part first. You're factually correct about our Investor Day guidance. I think, again, what we're saying about non-RevPAR-driven fees is still ahead of algorithm and there's nothing that's really changed about our Investor Day guidance in terms of the structure of the model or the drivers that I would change. Obviously, our RevPAR growth is -- our RevPAR outlook for this year has changed, and that is largely what is driving the EBITDA impact for the full year.

是的，我認為很明顯──莉齊，我會先講第二部分。您對我們的投資者日指導的看法確實正確。我認為，我們所說的非 RevPAR 驅動費用仍然領先於演算法，並且就模型結構或我要改變的驅動因素而言，我們的投資者日指南並沒有什麼真正改變。顯然，我們的 RevPAR 成長——我們對今年的 RevPAR 前景已經發生了變化，這在很大程度上推動了全年 EBITDA 的影響。

So if you think about our normal sort of distribution of kind of roughly $25 million to $30 million per point, if you put that into the (inaudible) ex the timing items that I talked about in Q1, that all holds together for the balance of the year.

因此，如果您考慮我們正常的分配方式，大約是每點 2500 萬美元到 3000 萬美元，如果您把它放到（聽不清楚）我在第一季度談到的時間項目中，那麼這些都會維持到今年的餘額。

So there's no drivers in terms of IMF growth a little bit lighter when RevPAR gets later, right? I mean IMF flows through at about 1.5 times typically, will be positive for the year, I should state. Even on zero to two, we'll run mid-single digits IMF growth for the year. But it all sort of tracks with the model. It's really the primary driver, if not the entire driver of the balance of the year coming down is RevPAR coming out.

因此，當 RevPAR 稍後出現時，IMF 成長方面沒有任何驅動因素會稍微減弱，對嗎？我的意思是，國際貨幣基金組織的資金流入量通常約為 1.5 倍，我應該說，這對今年來說將是一個正面的訊號。即使從零到二，我們今年的 IMF 成長率也將達到中等個位數。但這一切都與模型相符。這確實是主要驅動因素，如果不是全年餘額下降的全部驅動因素，那就是 RevPAR 的出現。

And importantly -- all that's right. If you take the full year, we're delivering algorithm. I mean we're just the same store new unit growth, (inaudible) is staying the same, and same store is coming down, but when you add one plus one together, it's getting you to what you should get to (multiple speakers)

重要的是——一切都是正確的。如果您花費一整年的時間，我們將提供演算法。我的意思是，我們只是同一家商店的新單位增長，（聽不清楚）保持不變，而同一家商店的銷售額正在下降，但是當你把一個加一個加在一起時，它就會達到你應該達到的目標（多位發言者）

Chad Beynon, Macquarie.

麥格理銀行的查德貝農 (Chad Beynon)。

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Chris, I was wondering if you could touch on the impact from Canadian travel, how that has changed since Liberation Day and particularly the last couple weeks? And more importantly, when you speak to executives that have businesses up there or multinational executives that could potentially bring corporate or leisure travelers down there, how they're thinking about the feeling and sentiment with their employees? Thanks.

嗨，早安。感謝您回答我的問題。克里斯，我想知道您是否可以談論加拿大旅遊的影響，自解放日以來，特別是最近幾週，這種影響發生了怎樣的變化？更重要的是，當您與在那裡有業務的高管或可能帶領商務或休閒旅客前往那裡的跨國公司高管交談時，他們如何看待員工的感受和情緒？謝謝。

Yeah, really, really good question. I would have been shocked if we didn't get that question given everything going on. So interesting in the quarter, inbound international represents circa 4% of the business, something like that. So it's not huge, but it's meaningful. In the quarter, it was up, even with all of this going on. It was up in the mid-single digits on a revenue basis.

是的，這確實是一個非常好的問題。考慮到目前發生的一切，如果我們沒有被問到這個問題，我會感到震驚。有趣的是，本季的國際入境旅遊約佔業務的 4%，大概是如此。所以它雖然不大，但意義重大。儘管發生了所有這些事情，但本季它仍然上漲。從收入來看，其成長幅度為個位數中段。

And so -- but what you saw was a progression where it was up a lot in January, a little bit less in February, and it was sort of flat in March, which -- I mean we could debate, and I don't know the answer, whether that's the full force of the impact of what's going on vis-a-vis, particularly Canada and Mexico. But what you saw was clearly through the quarter, a flattening out or leveling off. And with Canada and Mexico, you saw those both deteriorate to the point where -- they're down for us, I would say, like high single digits. Each of them is down high single digits.

所以 — — 但你看到的是一個進程，1 月份上漲很多，2 月份上漲幅度略小，3 月份基本上持平，這意味著 — — 我們可以爭論，但我不知道答案，這是否是當前形勢影響的全部，特別是加拿大和墨西哥。但你顯然看到的是，整個季度，經濟呈現平穩或趨於平穩狀態。至於加拿大和墨西哥，你會看到它們的情況都惡化到了——對我們來說，我想說，它們的下降幅度達到了個位數。他們每個人的得分都下降了個位數。

At the same time, the reason it's flat in March and what we were sort of seeing in April is other markets, weaker dollar, a whole lot of other things going on. Other markets are up. So up from the Asian markets, up from the UK, up from other parts of Europe. And so at the moment, I would say, in March and so far in April, it's sort of balanced out, and it's been neutral.

同時，3 月表現平平以及 4 月表現類似的原因是其他市場、美元走弱以及許多其他因素的影響。其他市場上漲。因此，亞洲市場、英國市場和歐洲其他地區市場均呈現上升趨勢。因此，我想說，目前，三月以及四月到目前為止，情況已經趨於平衡，並且保持中性。

And we'll see. Again, if we can settle some -- create more certainty, trade deals with some of these partners. Hopefully, we can settle some of these things down. Interestingly, I asked -- our development team was up in Canada doing a bunch of work because we obviously have a big business, and Kevin and I were with them and asking them, are you hearing a lot of noise, people don't want to do deals with us.

我們將拭目以待。再說一次，如果我們能夠解決一些問題——創造更多的確定性，並與其中一些合作夥伴達成貿易協議。希望我們能夠解決其中一些問題。有趣的是，我問過——我們的開發團隊在加拿大做了很多工作，因為我們顯然有一個大生意，凱文和我和他們在一起並問他們，你是否聽到很多噪音，人們不想和我們做交易。

And their answer was quite to the contrary, that they didn't sense any sort of resentment or sentiment vis-a-vis our brands as a US-based company that was affecting the sort of the trajectory of our development opportunities in the market at the moment. And certainly, we haven't felt any of that on the development side in Mexico either.

而他們的回答恰恰相反，他們沒有感覺到針對我們作為美國公司的品牌有任何怨恨或情緒，這影響了我們目前在市場上的發展機會軌跡。當然，我們在墨西哥的發展方面也沒有感受到任何這種影響。

And Chad, it's worth pointing out as well that Mexico and Canada combined are about 1.5% of our total revenue. So it's not to say that if you are part of our system and you own a hotel in Detroit or Buffalo, that you're -- or it's closer to the Mexican border that you're not feeling it. I don't -- I don't mean to be flipping about it vis-a-vis our ownership community. But in terms of the grand scheme of our business, it's only 1.5% of revenue.

查德，值得指出的是，墨西哥和加拿大的總收入約占我們總收入的 1.5%。所以，這並不是說，如果你是我們系統的一部分，你在底特律或布法羅擁有一家酒店，你——或者更靠近墨西哥邊境，你就不會感覺到它。我——我並不想對我們的所有權社群進行反駁。但就我們業務的整體情況而言，這僅佔收入的 1.5%。

Thanks, Kevin.

謝謝，凱文。

Sure.

當然。

Patrick Scholes, Truist.

帕特里克·斯科爾斯，Truist。

All right, great. Good morning. Thank you, everyone. When we talk to franchisees -- large franchisees of some of your competitors, we hear that construction costs are up at a minimum of 20%, in some cases, up 40%. Is that consistent with what you're hearing from your franchisees? Thank you.

好的，太好了。早安.謝謝大家。當我們與特許經營商（一些競爭對手的大型特許經營商）交談時，我們聽說建築成本至少上漲了 20%，在某些情況下甚至上漲了 40%。這與您從加盟商那裡聽到的一致嗎？謝謝。

No. I think, Patrick, I think what I'd say is you may have -- and I'm not saying you're not having valid conversations because I know you talk to developers all the time. That is not being realized. I think that is -- that particularly when these things first got announced, that was the fear, right? If you think about your sourcing and overall what could happen to development costs and some uncertainty, I think a lot of that has settled down.

不。我認為，派崔克，我想說的是，你可能有——我並不是說你沒有進行有效的對話，因為我知道你一直在與開發人員交談。但這一事實尚未實現。我認為——特別是當這些事情第一次被宣佈時，人們感到害怕，對嗎？如果你考慮你的採購以及總體上對開發成本和一些不確定性的影響，我認為很多問題已經解決了。

We came into the year in the US with construction costs kind of trending up kind of mid-single digits, and it hasn't really realized kind of, call it, three to five. It kind of -- that hasn't realized yet. And I think you have to take a little bit of a wait-and-see approach depending on how this all plays out, as Chris was talking about earlier.

今年美國的建築成本呈現中個位數成長趨勢，但尚未真正實現所謂的三到五年的成長。有點——還沒實現。我認為你必須採取一點觀望態度，取決於事情如何發展，正如克里斯之前所說的那樣。

Okay. Thank you for the color on your side. Thank you.

好的。謝謝你身邊的色彩。謝謝。

Michael Bellisario, Baird.

邁克爾貝利薩裡奧，貝爾德。

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. I just want to go back to your comments on April and the weakness there, maybe just digging in a little deeper within Leisure. Can you maybe give us some color on high end versus low end, how each of those track? And then same within BT, any differentiation you see between small, medium-sized accounts and then the larger corporate accounts? Thanks.

謝謝。大家早安。我只是想回到你對四月份的評論以及那裡的弱點，也許只是在休閒方面進行更深入的挖掘。您能否為我們講講高端和低端的區別，以及它們各自的軌跡如何？那麼，在英國電信內部，您認為小型、中型帳戶和大型企業帳戶之間有什麼區別嗎？謝謝。

Not, I mean, here's the thing. So April will be a bit odd, April, the Leisure business because the Easter movement will be a bit better, and Business transient will be worse. So I think you got to be careful sort of trending in April, given the shift in the holiday. I think more broadly, what we have seen is sort of leads a bit of a pullback in demand across all categories of Leisure both at the high end and in the middle.

不，我的意思是，事情是這樣的。因此，四月會有點奇怪，四月休閒業務因為復活節活動會好一點，而商業瞬態會更糟。因此，考慮到假期的變化，我認為你必須小心四月的趨勢。我認為，從更廣泛的角度來看，我們看到的是，所有休閒類別（無論是高端還是中端）的需求都出現了一定程度的回落。

And on Business transient, which I made to comment on in the prepared comments, we've seen not so very little impact on the SMB business because these folks got to get out and run their business, and they're not going to be as quick to make decisions, and a little bit more on the big corporates. Having said that, there's been sort of a bright spot, which has been in banking and finance, where we've seen a pretty nice uptick.

至於我在準備好的評論中提到的業務瞬態，我們看到它對中小企業業務的影響並不小，因為這些人必須出去經營自己的業務，而且他們不會那麼快地做出決定，對大公司的影響更大一些。話雖如此，但也出現了一些亮點，那就是銀行業和金融業，我們看到了相當不錯的成長動能。

But broadly, I'd say big business is always going to be a little bit more cautious. They're going to be a little bit more waiting to see where all this goes, where SMBs are going to -- in the moment, they got to run their business. And thankfully, SMB is 85%-plus of our Business transient book. So far, so good.

但總的來說，我認為大企業總是會更謹慎。他們將會再等待一段時間，看看這一切會如何發展，看看中小企業會走向何方——目前，他們必須經營自己的事業。值得慶幸的是，SMB 占我們商業臨時書的 85% 以上。到目前為止，一切都很好。

Again, we haven't -- everybody is worried that markets are sort of asymmetric risked to the downside. And you've heard what we -- where we are for the quarter, but also sort of March, April, we're still seeing positive growth.

再說一次，我們還沒有——每個人都擔心市場有某種不對稱的下行風險。你們已經聽說了我們本季的狀況，而且在三月、四月，我們仍然看到了積極的成長。

We're not -- it isn't as though the growth rates have gone negative. If you look at the midpoint of our guidance, probably, to be fair, Leisure is kind of flat at the midpoint, but it's not really negative. But we would expect, as I've already talked about, Group to be up in a pretty decent way and even Business transient to be up in that scenario.

我們並沒有──成長率並沒有變成負數。如果你看一下我們指導的中點，可能公平地說，休閒在中點有點持平，但並不是真正的負面。但正如我已經談到的，我們預計集團業務將以相當不錯的方式成長，甚至業務瞬態也將在這種情況下成長。

And in fact, that's what we're seeing right now. Now we've got to get through this Easter shift. But if you look at a few sort of try as best we can to sort of neutralize for the Easter effect, we're still seeing growth, just growth at a little bit lower level than what we would have hoped for or expected coming into the year.

事實上，這就是我們現在所看到的。現在我們必須度過這個復活節輪班。但是，如果你看一下我們盡力抵消復活節影響的幾種嘗試，我們仍然看到增長，只是增長水平略低於我們對今年的希望或預期。

Helpful. Thank you.

很有幫助。謝謝。

Meredith Jensen, HSBC.

匯豐銀行的梅瑞迪絲‧詹森。

Yes, thanks. I was hoping you might speak a little bit to further into the development, and how the conversion prospects are looking now versus a year ago, potentially with the changes in construction costs and the like spoken about?

是的，謝謝。我希望您能就開發情況進一步談談，以及與一年前相比，現在的轉換前景如何，以及可能談到的建築成本變化等？

And how this may or may not sort of just ongoing discussions of M&A in the sector? Maybe not for Hilton because I know that bias towards organic growth. But maybe on just there's a few topics to speak a little bit more would be great. Thank you.

這是否只是該行業正在進行的併購討論？可能對希爾頓來說不是這樣，因為我知道他們傾向於有機增長。但也許就這幾個話題多談一點就更好了。謝謝。

Yeah. So thanks, Meredith. On the conversion front, I mean, we gave a little bit of the color. We think conversions will be about 40% of our deliveries this year. That's a little bit higher than last year. You think about the stuff we did last year on the partnership side, those are larger conversions. So -- but if you neutralize, conversions are up year over year.

是的。所以謝謝你，梅雷迪斯。在轉換方面，我的意思是，我們給了一點顏色。我們認為轉換率將佔今年交付量的 40% 左右。這比去年略高一點。想想我們去年在合作方面所做的事情，這些都是更大的轉變。所以 — — 但如果你中和，轉換率就會逐年上升。

We tend to take share. I mean, I think Chris touched on this earlier. In an environment where -- it -- if it gets a little bit harder to do new builds, developers lean into conversions. And then when the environment gets a little bit softer, we tend to take share. So we already, in the US, do nearly half of the conversions that get signed in the US last year, pretty close to half were with us, and pretty close to half were with all of our competitors combined, right? So in a softening environment, we take even more share.

我們傾向於分享。我的意思是，我認為克里斯之前已經談過這一點。在這樣的環境下，如果進行新建變得有點困難，開發人員就會傾向於進行轉換。當環境變得稍微寬鬆時，我們傾向於佔領市場份額。因此，在美國，去年簽署的轉換合約中幾乎有一半是我們簽訂的，而接近一半是我們與所有競爭對手簽訂的，對嗎？因此，在疲軟的環境中，我們佔據了更大的份額。

Those deals, they're all different, right? Spark is driving a fair amount of that, but only, call it, 30%-ish of our conversions this year will be Spark. We did a bunch of DoubleTree's in the first quarter. And in our first quarter signings, we did conversions across 10 of our brands. So it really is mixed across the portfolio.

這些交易都是不同的，對嗎？Spark 在其中發揮了相當大的推動作用，但今年我們的轉換率中只有大約 30% 是透過 Spark 實現的。我們在第一季做了很多 DoubleTree 的事。在第一季的簽約中，我們完成了 10 個品牌的轉換。因此，整個投資組合確實是混合的。

And if someone can buy a trading asset or owns a trading asset today that's independent, it's a lot easier to finance. A lot of these conversions happen around transactions. And these transactions are just a lot easier to finance with in-place cash flows, and our brands become very attractive to both the equity and the debt financing for those deals.

如果某人今天可以購買或擁有獨立的交易資產，那麼融資就會容易得多。許多這樣的轉換都是圍繞著交易發生的。而且這些交易透過現有現金流更容易融資，而且我們的品牌對這些交易的股權融資和債務融資都非常有吸引力。

So we would continue -- we feel really good about the environment. And then we're doing a lot of conversions outside the US, right? Our conversion deliveries this year will be about 50/50 US and outside the US. So when we get sort of really focused on these conditions in the US, you have to remember the conditions remain a little bit different around the world.

所以我們會繼續下去——我們對環境感到非常滿意。然後我們在美國以外做了很多轉換，對嗎？我們今年的改裝交付量在美國和美國以外地區的比例約為 50%。因此，當我們真正關注美國的這些情況時，你必須記住，世界各地的情況仍然略有不同。

So we feel -- in short, we feel really good, and then I'll let Chris take the M&A.

所以我們感覺——簡而言之，我們感覺真的很好，然後我會讓克里斯負責併購。

Yeah. On the M&A, I think, implied in your question, I think you were headed in the right direction. I mean, we are much more focused on organic growth. We obviously did a couple of things last year, but we thought those were very unique in the sense of fit very nicely into the portfolio of brands that we had and spaces that we wanted to fill with really great brands, and we really feel like the value proposition for us was spectacular. And so we really are excited with those, and they're going really well.

是的。關於併購，我認為，正如你的問題所暗示的，我認為你正朝著正確的方向前進。我的意思是，我們更注重有機成長。去年我們確實做了一些事情，但我們認為這些事情非常獨特，因為它們非常適合我們現有的品牌組合以及我們想要用真正優秀的品牌填補的空間，我們真的覺得這些事情對我們來說價值主張是驚人的。因此，我們對此感到非常興奮，而且進展非常順利。

We look at, as we always have, everything that you read about that anybody is doing, you should assume we've looked at it and that given our size and scale and all of these things, for the most part, are broadly marketed, that we have chosen not to pursue it.

就像我們一直以來所做的那樣，我們會關注你所讀到的任何人正在做的一切事情，你應該假設我們已經關注過它，並且考慮到我們的規模和範圍，而且所有這些事情在大多數情況下都是廣泛營銷的，我們選擇不去追求它。

And certainly to any type of conclusion. And that's because the truth is we like organic growth other than a couple of things last year. That's what we've done for almost 20 years. We've had great success in building what we think are the industry-leading brand, certainly, the industry-leading performing brands.

當然也可以得出任何類型的結論。這是因為，除了去年的幾件事之外，我們確實喜歡有機成長。近二十年來我們一直在做這件事。我們在打造我們認為的行業領先品牌方面取得了巨大的成功，當然，也是業界領先的表現品牌。

We have 24 brands that give us a huge amount of opportunity in every market, including where we have the biggest distribution in the United States, where we still have huge growth opportunities.

我們擁有 24 個品牌，這為我們在每個市場提供了巨大的機會，包括我們在美國最大的分銷市場，在那裡我們仍然擁有巨大的成長機會。

And we are, to a degree, I would say, in most parts of the world still very early in gestation in terms of propagating the full family of brands that we have. At the same time, we're always looking at -- within these segments at opportunities. And there are two or three things that we are working on in terms of new brands that would be done organically.

在某種程度上，我想說，在世界大部分地區，我們在推廣我們擁有的整個品牌方面仍處於醞釀階段。同時，我們也一直在這些領域尋找機會。就新品牌而言，我們正在進行兩、三項有組織的工作。

A couple of those in the Lifestyle space, potentially a Lifestyle collection that would be under Tapestry to take unique hotels that we think would be very additive to the system from a customer point of view, real demand in the owner marketplace, and we really don't -- haven't had a place to put those. And then a hard brand in between Motto and Canopy where, again, we see big segment of demand that we're not really serving and an owner community that is looking to do, around the world, a lot more of that.

生活方式領域的一些產品，可能是 Tapestry 旗下的生活方式系列，其中包含我們認為從客戶角度來看對系統非常有益的獨特酒店，以及業主市場的實際需求，但我們真的沒有地方放置這些產品。然後是 Motto 和 Canopy 之間的硬品牌，我們再次看到我們並沒有真正服務於很大一部分需求，而業主社群正在全球尋求更多這樣的服務。

And then I've talked about a number of times, [the all] accommodations we called our furnished apartment space where we've done a huge amount of work there. And my expectation is you will see us do something there.

然後我已經多次談到，我們稱之為帶家具的公寓空間的[所有]住宿，我們在那裡做了大量的工作。我希望您能看到我們在那裡有所作為。

And so yeah, we look at everything. And I always have to say, never say never, but we have made, I think, great progress over 20 years of doing it the old-fashioned way. I think we've built a skill set and a team that is really, really good at this.

是的，我們會觀察一切。我總是說，永遠不要說永遠，但我認為，20 年來，我們用傳統方法已經取得了巨大進步。我認為我們已經建立了一套非常擅長此道的技能和一支團隊。

And as I said, we got 24 brands. My guess is in the next year or two, we're going to have 27 at least that we think will continue to fill niches within the family of brands that will provide customers some great opportunities and better serve our owner community on things that they want to do. So I think that's the likely path you will highly likely path you'll see us follow.

正如我所說，我們有 24 個品牌。我估計，在未來一兩年內，我們至少會擁有 27 個品牌，我們認為這些品牌將繼續填補品牌家族中的空白，為客戶提供一些絕佳的機會，並更好地為我們的業主社群提供他們想要做的事情。所以我認為這是我們將要走的一條非常有可能的道路。

Super clear and helpful. Thank you.

非常清晰且有用。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the call back to Chris Nassetta for any additional or closing remarks.

女士們、先生們，我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我想將電話轉回給克里斯·納塞塔 (Chris Nassetta)，請他發表任何補充或結束語。

Thank you, everybody. As always, we appreciate the time, lots of great questions. There's obviously a lot going on. In the world, a lot of which we talked about, but as I've said a few times, we feel really good about the position the business is in.

謝謝大家。像往常一樣，我們感謝您抽出時間提出許多精彩的問題。顯然有很多事情發生。我們談論了很多事情，但正如我多次說過的，我們對公司目前的狀況感到非常滿意。

We love our model. We're in a really good position from a balance sheet liquidity point of view, driving, incredibly high margins, and even though there's some choppiness out there, we're really confident in our ability to continue delivering for you also, we'll look forward after the next quarter to give you an update and let you know exactly what we're thinking at that time. Thanks again for the time, and have a great day.

我們熱愛我們的模型。從資產負債表流動性的角度來看，我們處於非常有利的地位，利潤率非常高，儘管存在一些波動，但我們對繼續為您提供服務的能力充滿信心，我們期待在下個季度之後向您提供最新消息，並讓您確切地知道我們當時的想法。再次感謝您抽出時間，祝您有個愉快的一天。

Conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。