希爾頓酒店 (HLT) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Operator^

運算符^

Good morning, and welcome to the Hilton third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

早安，歡迎參加希爾頓 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Please note this event is being recorded.

請注意此事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Jill Chapman, Senior Vice President, Head of Development Operations and Investor Relations. You may begin.

我現在將會議交給高級副總裁兼開發營運和投資者關係主管吉爾·查普曼 (Jill Chapman)。你可以開始了。

Thank you, Chad.

謝謝你，查德。

Welcome to Hilton's third-quarter 2024 earnings call.

歡迎參加希爾頓 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

Before we begin, we would like to remind you that our discussions this morning will include forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those indicated in the forward-looking statements, and forward-looking statements made today speak only to our expectations as of today. We undertake no obligation to update or revise these statements. For a discussion of some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ, please see the Risk Factors section of our most recently filed Form 10-K. In addition, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures on this call. You can find reconciliations of now non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures discussed in today's call in our earnings press release and on our website at ir.hilton.com.

在開始之前，我們想提醒您，我們今天上午的討論將包括前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與前瞻性聲明中所示的結果有重大差異，今天發表的前瞻性聲明僅代表我們截至目前為止的預期。我們不承擔更新或修改這些聲明的義務。有關可能導致實際結果不同的一些因素的討論，請參閱我們最近提交的表格 10-K 的風險因素部分。此外，我們將在本次電話會議上提及某些非公認會計準則財務指標。您可以在我們的收益新聞稿和我們的網站 ir.hilton.com 上找到今天電話會議中討論的當前非 GAAP 與 GAAP 財務指標的調整表。

This morning, Chris Nassetta, our President and Chief Executive Officer, will provide an overview of the current operating environment and the company's outlook. Kevin Jacobs, our Chief Financial Officer and President, Global Development, will then review our third-quarter and discuss our expectations for the year.

今天早上，我們的總裁兼執行長 Chris Nassetta 將概述當前的營運環境和公司的前景。我們的財務長兼全球發展總裁 Kevin Jacobs 隨後將回顧我們的第三季並討論我們對今年的預期。

Following their remarks, we'll be happy to take your questions.

在他們的發言之後，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

With that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Chris.

至此，我很高興將電話轉給克里斯。

Thank you, Jill. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us today.

謝謝你，吉爾。大家早安，感謝您今天加入我們。

Our third quarter results continued to demonstrate the strength of our business model as strong net unit growth helped drive solid bottom line performance. Adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS both exceeded the high end of our guidance despite softer than expected RevPAR performance. We opened more hotel rooms than any other quarter in the history of our company and surpassed 8,000 hotels in our system. We also reached a milestone 200 million Hilton Honors members in the quarter as our award winning program, industry-leading brands and exceptional service continued to increase guest loyalty.

我們第三季的業績繼續證明了我們業務模式的優勢，因為強勁的淨單位成長有助於推動穩健的獲利業績。儘管RevPAR表現低於預期，但調整後的EBITDA和調整後每股盈餘都超過了我們指引的上限。我們開設的酒店客房數量比公司歷史上任何其他季度都多，我們系統中的酒店數量已超過 8,000 家。我們的屢獲殊榮的計劃、行業領先的品牌和卓越的服務不斷提高賓客忠誠度，本季度希爾頓榮譽客會會員數量也達到了 2 億的里程碑。

Turning to results. Third quarter system-wide RevPAR increased 1.4% year over year, below our guidance range due to slower ramp in September following Labor Day, weather impacts, unfavorable calendar shifts. and ongoing labor disputes in the US. Business transient RevPAR increased 2% with growth across both large corporates and small and medium-sized businesses.

轉向結果。第三季全系統 RevPAR 年成長 1.4%，低於我們的指導範圍，原因是勞動節後 9 月的成長放緩、天氣影響和不利的日曆變化。以及美國持續不斷的勞資糾紛。隨著大型企業和中小型企業的成長，業務瞬間每間可用收入 (RevPAR) 成長了 2%。

Leisure trends continued to normalize with RevPAR declining modestly from post-pandemic peaks. Group RevPAR rose more than 5% year over year, led by strong demand for both corporate and social meetings and events. For the full year, group position is up 10% with group position in '25 and '26 up low double digits to mid teens. Adjusting for holiday and calendar shifts, we estimate system-wide RevPAR grew at 2.3% in the quarter, just slightly softer than the second quarter and with all segments increasing. On an adjusted basis, leisure transient RevPAR increased nearly 2% driven largely by solid trends across Continental Europe.

休閒趨勢持續正常化，每間可用房收入較疫情後最高峰小幅下降。由於企業和社交會議及活動的強勁需求，集團每間可用客房收入較去年同期成長超過 5%。全年來看，集團排名上升了 10%，其中 25 年和 26 年的集團排名上升了兩位數至十幾歲左右。根據假期和日曆變化進行調整後，我們估計本季全系統 RevPAR 成長率為 2.3%，僅略低於第二季度，且所有細分市場均有所成長。在調整後的基礎上，休閒短暫的 RevPAR 成長了近 2%，這主要是由於歐洲大陸的穩定趨勢所致。

In the fourth quarter, we expect RevPAR growth largely in line with third quarter driven by strong group bookings, continued business transient recovery, and favorable calendar shifts, partially offset by the election and ongoing labor disputes in the US. Weekday pays for October is tracking up more than 300 basis points versus September's weekday pays, driven by solid business transient performance and group's strength. Company meetings and convention business continue to grow as a percentage of mix driving longer booking windows.

在第四季度，我們預計每間客房收入的成長與第三季度基本一致，這是由強勁的團體預訂、持續的業務短暫復甦和有利的日曆變化推動的，但部分被美國大選和持續的勞資糾紛所抵消。在穩健的業務短暫表現和集團實力的推動下，10 月份的工作日薪酬比 9 月份的工作日薪酬上漲了 300 個基點以上。公司會議和會議業務在混合業務中所佔的比例持續成長，從而推動了更長的預訂窗口。

Given year to date performance in fourth quarter expectations, we expect forecast last full-year RevPAR growth of 2% to 2.5% and full year adjusted EBITDA growth of approximately 10%, demonstrating the continued resiliency of our business model.

鑑於第四季度預期今年迄今的表現，我們預計全年 RevPAR 將增長 2% 至 2.5%，全年調整後 EBITDA 增長約 10%，這表明我們業務模式的持續彈性。

Turning to development. In the quarter, we opened a record 531 hotels totaling more than 36,000 rooms and achieve the highest net unit growth in our history at 7.8%. We marked several milestones in the quarter, including the opening of our 8,000 hotel worldwide, our nine 900th hotel in Asia Pacific and our 900th hotel in EMEA.

轉向發展。本季度，我們開設了創紀錄的 531 家酒店，客房總數超過 36,000 間，並實現了歷史上最高的淨單位增長率 7.8%。我們在本季度實現了多個里程碑，包括在全球開設 8,000 家酒店、在亞太地區開設第 9 家 900 家酒店以及在歐洲、中東和非洲開設第 900 家酒店。

Home2 Suites, which has more more than doubled in supply in the last five years, opened its 700th hotel and continues to have the largest new development pipeline in the industry. We continue to expand our lifestyle portfolio, opening a number of new hotels in the quarter, including the Graduate Auburn and Graduate Princeton, the first two openings under our newly acquired Graduate brand. We also introduced several brands in new markets around the world, including Spark in Canada, Embassy Suites in the UAE, Canopy in Japan, and Hampton in Switzerland, demonstrating the strong value of our industry-leading brands in delivering for owners.

Home2 Suites 的供應量在過去五年中增加了一倍以上，開設了第 700 家酒店，並繼續擁有業內最大的新開發項目。我們繼續擴大我們的生活方式組合，在本季度開設了許多新酒店，包括奧本畢業生酒店和普林斯頓畢業生酒店，這是我們新收購的畢業生品牌下開設的前兩家酒店。我們也在全球新市場推出了多個品牌，包括加拿大的 Spark、阿聯酋的 Embassy Suites、日本的 Canopy 和瑞士的 Hampton，展示了我們行業領先品牌為業主提供的強大價值。

We welcomed nearly 400 luxury properties through our exclusive agreement with Small Luxury Hotels of the World. These properties spanning 70 different countries provide Honors members even more opportunities to book unique luxury experiences and sought after destinations across the globe. Including SLH and our existing luxury properties, we now have one of the largest luxury hotel portfolios in the industry. Conversions accounted for 60% of openings in the quarter driven by the addition of SLH properties and continued momentum from Spark. We opened more than 20 Spark hotels in the quarter and now have over 6,000 Spark rooms in supply just a year after the brand opened its first property.

透過與世界小型豪華酒店的獨家協議，我們迎來了近 400 家豪華酒店。這些飯店遍佈 70 個不同國家，為榮譽會員提供更多機會預訂獨特的奢華體驗和全球熱門目的地。包括 SLH 和我們現有的豪華酒店，我們現在擁有業內最大的豪華酒店組合之一。由於 SLH 物業的增加和 Spark 的持續成長勢頭，轉換佔本季空缺職位的 60%。我們在本季開設了 20 多家 Spark 飯店，在品牌開設第一家飯店僅一年後，目前已供應超過 6,000 間 Spark 客房。

Spark now has opened hotels in the US and the UK and Canada. And we recently announced plans to open hotels in Germany and Austria before the end of the year. The brand's pipeline is three times larger than its existing supply and we expect continued launches in international markets to further boost Spark's trajectory, positioning us well for future growth in the premium economy space. In the quarter, we signed 28,000 rooms expanding our pipeline to more than 492,000 rooms which is up 8% year over year. Excluding partnerships, our pipeline also increased from the second quarter. We signed three luxury deals in Greece, Japan and the UAE and 35 lifestyle properties including a record 15 Curios.

Spark 目前已在美國、英國和加拿大開設飯店。我們最近宣布計劃在年底前在德國和奧地利開設酒店。該品牌的產品線是其現有供應量的三倍，我們預計國際市場上的持續推出將進一步推動 Spark 的發展軌跡，為我們在高端經濟領域的未來成長做好準備。本季度，我們簽署了 28,000 間客房，將待售客房數量擴大到超過 492,000 間，年增 8%。不包括合作夥伴，我們的管道也比第二季度增加。我們在希臘、日本和阿聯酋簽署了三筆豪華飯店交易，以及 35 處生活方式房產，其中包括創紀錄的 15 處 Curios 房產。

Conversions accounted for more than 30% of signings in the quarter driven by the strength of Spark and the continued momentum across Curio, Tapestry and DoubleTree. Construction starts remain strong, up 21% excluding acquisitions and partnerships. We remain on track to exceed prior levels of starts by year end with meaningful growth across both the US and international markets.Approximately half of our pipeline is under construction and we continue to have more rooms under construction than any other hotel company. Accounting for more than 20% of industry share and nearly four times our existing share of supply as a result of our strong pipeline and under construction activity, we continue to expect net unit growth of 7 to 7.5% for the full year and 6 to 7% for 2025. We continue to be recognized for our culture and award winning brands. During the quarter, we were named the top Hospitality Workplace in Latin America and Asia by great place to work. Adding to the more than 560 great place to work awards and nearly 60 number one wins around the world since 2016. We're also proud to be named the Number two Workplace on the 2024 People magazine companies that careless and recently recognizes time's best time, best hotel brand of 2024 overall. We're very pleased with our performance in the quarter and the milestones, we've achieved our powerful network of brands to continue to be an engine of opportunity for our guests, our owners and our team members and we're excited about our growth into the future. Now I'm going to turn the call over to Kevin for a few more details on our results for the quarter and our expectations for the full year.

在 Spark 的實力以及 Curio、Tapestry 和 DoubleTree 的持續成長動能的推動下，本季的轉換率超過了 30%。開工建設依然強勁，不包括收購和合作關係，成長了 21%。我們仍有望在年底前超越之前的開工量水平，並在美國和國際市場實現顯著增長。由於我們強大的管道和在建活動，佔行業份額超過 20%，幾乎是我們現有供應份額的四倍，我們繼續預計全年淨單位增長 7% 至 7.5%，6 至 7% % 到2025 年。本季度，我們被「最佳工作場所」評為拉丁美洲和亞洲最佳飯店工作場所。自2016 年以來，自2016 年以來，我們在全球範圍內獲得了超過560 個最佳工作場所獎項，並獲得了近60 個第一名。工作場所第二名的公司，這些公司粗心大意，最近認可了時間的最佳時光， 2024 年整體最佳酒店品牌。我們對本季的表現和里程碑感到非常滿意，我們已經建立了強大的品牌網絡，繼續成為我們的客人、業主和團隊成員的機會引擎，我們對我們的成長感到興奮進入未來。現在我將把電話轉給凱文，以了解有關我們本季業績和全年預期的更多詳細資訊。

Thanks Chris and good morning, everyone during the quarter system wide revpar grew 1.4% versus the prior year on a comparable and currency neutral basis growth was largely largely driven by strong international performance and continued recovery in group adjusted EBITDA was $904 million in the third quarter. Up 8% year over year and exceeding the high end of our guidance range outperformance was driven by better than expected non revpar fee growth, lower corporate expense and some timing items.

謝謝克里斯，大家早上好，本季系統範圍內的平均收入在可比和貨幣中性的基礎上與上一年相比增長了1.4%，增長很大程度上是由強勁的國際業績推動的，且第三季集團調整後EBITDA 的持續復甦為9.04 億美元。年比成長 8%，超過了我們指導範圍的高端，這是由於好於預期的非平均收入成長、較低的企業費用和一些時間項目的推動。

Management franchise fees grew 8% year over year for the quarter, diluted earnings per share adjusted for special items was a dollar and 92¢.

本季管理特許經營費年增 8%，經特殊項目調整後的稀釋每股收益為 1 美元和 92 美分。

Turning to our regional performance. Third quarter comparable us revpar was up 1% driven by strong group performance in the Americas outside of the US. Third quarter. Revpar increased 4% year over year driven by strong results in urban markets, particularly in Mexico in Europe. Revpar grew 7% year over year driven by key summer events including the Olympics in France and the European soccer championships in Germany in the Middle East and Africa region. Revpar increased 3% year over year led by occupancy gains in Qatar and Riyadh in the Asia Pacific region. Third quarter, revpar was down 3% year over year. Revpar and Apex X China increased 4% led by strong performance in India. However, China revpar declined 9% in the quarter with difficult year over year domestic travel comparisons disruptions due to typhoons and limited international inbound travel negatively affecting results.

轉向我們的區域表現。由於美國以外的美洲地區集團表現強勁，第三季美國可比平均每間平均收益成長了 1%。第三季。受城市市場（尤其是歐洲墨西哥）強勁業績的推動，每間可用房收入年增 4%。受法國奧運會、中東和非洲地區德國歐洲足球錦標賽等重要夏季賽事的推動，每間收入年增 7%。由於亞太地區卡達和利雅德的入住率成長，每間平均收入年增 3%。第三季度，Revpar 年減 3%。在印度的強勁表現帶動下，中國的 Revpar 和 Apex X 成長了 4%。然而，中國的每間平均收入在本季度下降了 9%，由於颱風和有限的國際入境旅行對業績產生了負面影響，國內旅行同比中斷。

Turning to development, we ended the quarter with approximately 492,000 rooms in our pipeline up 8% year over year with approximately 60% of those rooms located outside of the US and nearly half under construction for the full year. We expect net unit growth of 7 to 7.5%.

談到開發，本季末，我們在建客房約 492,000 間，年增 8%，其中約 60% 的客房位於美國境外，全年近一半在建客房。我們預計淨單位成長率為 7% 至 7.5%。

Moving to guidance for the fourth quarter. We expect system wide revpar growth of 1% to 2% year over year. We expect adjusted EBITDA of between 804 million and $834 million and diluted EPS adjusted for special items to be between a dollar and 57¢ and a dollar and 67¢ for full year. 2024. We expect revpar growth of 2 to 2.5%. We forecast adjusted EBITDA of between 3.375 billion and $3.405 billion. We forecast diluted EPS adjusted for special items of between $6.93 and $7.03.

轉向第四季的指引。我們預計全系統的平均收入將年增 1% 至 2%。我們預計全年調整後 EBITDA 介於 8.04 億至 8.34 億美元之間，特殊項目調整後攤薄每股收益介於 1 美元至 57 美分和 1 美元至 67 美分之間。 2024 年。我們預計調整後 EBITDA 為 33.75 億至 34.05 億美元。我們預計特殊項目調整後的攤薄每股收益在 6.93 美元至 7.03 美元之間。

Please note that our guidance ranges do not incorporate future share repurchases.

請注意，我們的指導範圍不包括未來的股票回購。

Moving on to capital return. We paid a cash dividend of 15¢ per share during the third quarter for a total of $37 million. Our board also authorized a quarterly dividend of 15¢ per share in the fourth quarter. Year-to-date. We have returned more than $2.4 billion to shareholders in the form of buybacks and dividends. And for the full year, we expect to return approximately $3 billion. Further details on our third quarter, results can be found in the earnings release we issued earlier this morning. This completes our prepared remarks. We would now like to open the line for any questions you may have. We would like to speak with as many of you as possible. So we ask that you limit yourself to one question, Chad, can we have our first question?

轉向資本回報。第三季我們支付了每股 15 美分的現金股息，總計 3,700 萬美元。我們的董事會也授權在第四季派發每股 15 美分的季度股息。今年迄今為止。我們以回購和股利的形式向股東返還了超過 24 億美元。我們預計全年回報約 30 億美元。有關我們第三季業績的更多詳細信息，請參閱我們今天早上發布的收益報告。我們準備好的演講到此結束。我們現在願意為您解答任何問題。我們希望與盡可能多的人交談。所以我們請你只問一個問題，查德，我們可以問第一個問題嗎？

Thank.

感謝。

You. We will now begin our question and answer session to ask a question. You may press star then one on your touchtone phone to withdraw your question. Please press star. Then two and the first question will be from Joe Greff with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

你。我們現在將開始問答環節來提出問題。您可以按按鍵式電話上的星號然後再按一個來撤回您的問題。請按星號。然後是第二個問題，第一個問題將由摩根大通的喬·格雷夫提出。請繼續。

Hi, good morning, Chris, Captain Jill.

嗨，早上好，克里斯，吉爾船長。

You know that back in March at your Investor Day, which feels like a long time ago for a lot of different reasons. You gave the 2025 E dot Target of 3.69 billion.

你知道，早在三月的投資人日，由於很多不同的原因，這感覺像是很久以前的事了。您給的2025年E點目標是36.9億。

When you look at that number and the drivers getting there, what's different about 2025 as you sit here today versus this past March, I guess. In other words, if you and the industry are in this 1 to 2% revpar growth range for next year, do you still look at that level of you? But that's achievable or do you need rep card to be somewhat higher than 1 to 2% to get there.

當你看到這個數字和到達那裡的司機時，我猜你今天坐在這裡的 2025 年與去年 3 月有什麼不同。換句話說，如果您和整個產業明年的平均收入成長率處於 1% 到 2% 的範圍內，您還會考慮這個水準嗎？但這是可以實現的，或者您是否需要代表卡片略高於 1% 到 2% 才能實現這一目標。

Yeah, that's a good question. Obviously, it's a, it's a tad early to be getting into, you know, 2025 guidance. As you know, we would, we would do typically do that at the end of, you know, when we report year end at the beginning of next year. But, you know, II I will give you a high level sense of it. I mean, we are in the, you know, sort of the early ish stages of budget season. So, you know, lots of work to do. But I would say, you know, I have a reasonably, like most things, I have a reasonably strong view of, of where I think things will end up. And so I, you know, I started with sort of like, how do we feel broadly about 2025? And I would say we feel pretty good about it. I, you know, I've been doing this for longer than I'm going to admit, maybe close to 40 years. I've, I've rarely seen, you know, sort of a stronger consensus view on the macro, you know, particularly here in the US. But I think, I think broadly, and that macro view is, you know, that, you know, sort of, I think the word resiliency. I used to describe our business. I think that word is getting used a lot to describe the economy. And I think you know, there, there is a very broad consensus view that the economy will continue to be, you know, it obviously has been slowing. Because that's what the FED has been trying to do here in the US and, and to a degree in other parts of the world, but focus on the US. But, but, you know, it remains strong, resilient and showing positive growth. And I think, you know, our the consensus view is that next year will be more of that, that we'll have positive economic growth, you know, the odds of a recession, you know, at this point, I think are quite low. If you look again at consensus view, I'm not an economist, but, you know, that's the view and I talked to a lot of people and I would generally agree with the view. So I think as we think about, you know, that as a backdrop, you know, thinking about 2025 what's going to be the macro which can drive a bunch of our business. Obviously, we feel pretty good about it. I think when you think about, you know, how that's going to add up and I'll, I'll sort of give you the punch line and then I'll break it down a little bit by regions and segments. I mean, I think the punch line is my best sense again early in our budget season is that next year is going to look a lot like this year on from a same store growth point of view. Now I think we'll get there a little bit differently. But I, I would say at this point, I think next year we'll end up when we're sitting here a year from now, we'll be saying it felt a lot like 2024. If you, if you break that down regionally, I think it, you know, again, at a high level where I think it ends up is the US ends up pretty similar to, to, you know, what we're experiencing this year. I think if you look at Asia Pacific, I think it will be better in part because comps in China are going to get easier and there's a lot of stimulus occurring there. So I do think China will have a better year and China, I mean, a P/E X China remains quite strong as Kevin suggested in his comments and we don't see a lot that's going to disrupt that and we have some comp benefits particularly in the third quarter, in weather, in typhoons in Japan and China that, you know, that will, you know, that will be, that will be a benefit. So I think a PAC will be better. I think EMEA will be a little bit less good than it's been. I don't, I think it's still going to be very good to be clear. My guess is it will probably still lead the pack in, in revpar growth in terms of our mega regions around the world. So it's not that I see a problem there, but I do think, you know, it'll be somewhat less growth than we saw this year. And when you blend it all together us about the same, you know, APAC a little bit better. IIA may be a little bit worse. I think you end up kind of it. You know, about where you are. If you break it down by segments again, I'm, you know, I mean, I'm homogenizing a lot of stuff, you know, together, but I think it's again a similar story. Maybe with a little bit of nuance, I think, I think on the group side, you're going to continue to see really good strength. I said, you know, we're up in the, in the low to mid, you know, 10s, you know, in terms of our position going into next year. So we feel really good. We'll cross over with more than half the business on the books, you know, and booking windows are extending because there's just not enough supply relative to the demand. So I think you're going to see both demand growth and pricing growth in, in the group segment. I think in, in business transient, which will be, I think in second place, in terms of the pecking order of, of growth again, broadly, I think you're going to continue to see business transient grind up. I do think next year we will likely surpass prior peaks of 2019 in terms of demand levels. So you will see increases in demand, all the anecdotal and hard evidence that we're getting from most of our big accounts and our smb business suggests that and you will continue to have good pricing power there. And then leisure. I think again, a little bit like this year, you're going to continue to see normalization. What does that mean? That means, I think demand is sort of flat to maybe even down a little bit. But again, because like in all segments of life, particularly here in the US, inflation is down but still, you know, stubbornly a bit high. I do, I do believe that will continue to have very solid pricing power. So when you, when you blend it all out, I think again, it will look a lot like this year. I think it will, you know, depending on segment be balanced as, as I just described. But if you blend the whole world together, you know, it'll be, it'll be a nice blend of both demand and pricing. The way all that sort of amalgam, all of what I just said, amalgamates together and you know, listen, we, you know, we, we spent a lot of time on this. We just did our, you know, as we always do every quarter, our quarterly business review with the whole world and everybody's in budget season and has got their head down. But I think, you know, the overarching sort of, you know, atmospherics with our teams around the world is consistent with what I just said, feeling, feeling pretty good. I mean, listen, we'd rather have higher revpar growth always, but we feel that that's pretty solid. And the last thing I'd say to finish my filibuster. Thank you for the question, Joe, because I'm answering a bunch. We obviously feel really good about unit growth We've given so we have given some guidance there. We've got a lot of momentum in that area. I'm sure we'll have more questions, but we feel very good about that. And so, you know, the way I would think about it is we're always trying to deliver algorithm growth back to your initial question, which is I always, I say here X plus Y needs equal Z so same store and unit growth need to, you know, need to add up. And I am, I am very confident that you know, algorithm will be alive and well for next for 2025.

是的，這是一個好問題。顯然，現在進入 2025 年指導還為時過早。如您所知，我們通常會在年底時這樣做，您知道，當我們在明年初報告年終時。但是，你知道，我會給你一個高層次的感覺。我的意思是，我們正處於預算季節的早期階段。所以，你知道，還有很多工作要做。但我想說，你知道，就像大多數事情一樣，我對事情的結局有一個相當強烈的看法。所以我，你知道，我一開始就想，我們對 2025 年的整體感覺如何？我想說我們對此感覺很好。我，你知道，我從事這行的時間比我承認的要長，也許接近 40 年。我很少看到對宏觀經濟有更強烈的共識，尤其是在美國。但我認為，我認為廣泛，宏觀觀點是，你知道，我認為彈性這個詞。我曾經描述過我們的業務。我認為這個詞被廣泛用來描述經濟。我想你知道，人們有一個非常廣泛的共識，就是經濟將繼續，你知道，它顯然一直在放緩。因為這就是聯準會一直在美國和世界其他地區嘗試做的事情，但重點是美國。但是，但是，你知道，它仍然強勁、有彈性，並顯示出積極的成長。我認為，我們的共識是，明年將會更多，我們將實現積極的經濟成長，你知道，經濟衰退的可能性，你知道，在這一點上，我認為相當大低的。如果你再看一下共識觀點，我不是經濟學家，但是，你知道，這就是觀點，我與很多人交談過，我通常會同意這種觀點。所以我認為，當我們思考時，你知道，作為一個背景，你知道，思考 2025 年將有哪些宏觀因素可以推動我們的一系列業務。顯然，我們對此感覺很好。我想，當你思考時，你知道，這將如何加起來，我會給你一些妙語，然後我會按地區和細分市場將其分解。我的意思是，我認為在我們的預算季節初期，我的最佳感覺是，從同一家商店成長的角度來看，明年看起來會很像今年。現在我想我們會以不同的方式到達那裡。但我，我想說，在這一點上，我想明年我們最終會在一年後坐在這裡時，我們會說感覺很像 2024 年。 ，在高水準上，我認為美國的最終結果與我們今年所經歷的情況非常相似。我認為，如果你看看亞太地區，我認為情況會更好，部分原因是中國的競爭將變得更加容易，而且那裡正在發生很多刺激措施。所以我確實認為中國將會有一個更好的一年，我的意思是，正如凱文在他的評論中所建議的那樣，中國的P/E X 中國仍然相當強勁，我們沒有看到太多的事情會破壞這一點，而且我們特別有一些比較優勢第三季度，在天氣方面，在日本和中國的颱風中，你知道，那將是，那將是，那將是一個好處。所以我認為 PAC 會更好。我認為歐洲、中東和非洲地區的表現將比以前有所下降。我不這麼認為，我認為澄清一下還是很好的。我的猜測是，就我們全球各大地區的每間收入成長而言，它可能仍將領先。所以這並不是說我看到了問題，但我確實認為，你知道，成長會比我們今年看到的要少一些。當你把它們混合在一起時，我們的情況是一樣的，你知道，亞太地區要好一點。 IIA可能會更糟一些。我想你最終會這樣。你知道，關於你在哪裡。如果你再次將其細分，我，你知道，我的意思是，我將很多東西同質化，你知道，在一起，但我認為這又是一個類似的故事。也許有一點細微差別，我認為，我認為在團隊方面，你將繼續看到真正強大的力量。我說，你知道，就我們明年的排名而言，我們處於中低端，你知道，10 多歲。所以我們感覺非常好。你知道，我們將完成一半以上的預訂業務，預訂窗口正在延長，因為相對於需求而言，供應不足。因此，我認為您將看到集團細分市場的需求成長和價格成長。我認為，在業務瞬態方面，我認為，就成長的排序而言，總體而言，我認為這將排在第二位，我認為您將繼續看到業務瞬態的發展。我確實認為明年的需求水準可能會超過 2019 年的高峰。因此，您將看到需求的增加，我們從大多數大客戶和中小企業業務中獲得的所有軼事和確鑿的證據表明，您將繼續在那裡擁有良好的定價能力。然後就是休閒。我再次認為，有點像今年，你會繼續看到正常化。這意味著什麼？這意味著，我認為需求基本上持平，甚至可能下降。但同樣，因為就像生活的各個方面一樣，特別是在美國，通貨膨脹雖然有所下降，但仍然居高不下。我確實相信它將繼續擁有非常穩固的定價能力。所以當你把這一切融合在一起時，我再次想，它看起來會很像今年。我認為，正如我剛才所描述的，這將取決於細分市場的平衡。但如果你把整個世界融合在一起，你知道，這將是需求和定價的完美結合。所有這些混合體，我剛才所說的所有內容，都融合在一起，你知道，聽著，我們，你知道，我們，我們在這方面花了很多時間。你知道，就像我們每個季度都會做的那樣，我們剛剛對全世界進行了季度業務審查，每個人都處於預算季節，並且都低著頭。但我認為，你知道，我們世界各地團隊的整體氛圍與我剛才所說的一致，感覺非常好。我的意思是，聽著，我們寧願總是有更高的每間收入成長，但我們認為這是相當可靠的。這是我要說的最後一句話來結束我的阻撓議事。謝謝你的問題，喬，因為我正在回答很多問題。顯然，我們對我們已經給出的單位增長感到非常滿意，因此我們在那裡給出了一些指導。我們在該領域擁有很大的動力。我確信我們還會有更多問題，但我們對此感覺很好。所以，你知道，我的思考方式是，我們總是試圖將演算法成長回到你最初的問題，這就是我總是，我在這裡說 X 加 Y 需要等於 Z，所以相同的商店和單位成長需要你知道，需要加起來。我非常有信心，你知道，演算法將在 2025 年繼續保持良好的狀態。

Thank you. And the next question will be from Sean Kelly from Bank of America, Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

謝謝。下一個問題將由美國銀行美林證券的 Sean Kelly 提出。請繼續。

Hi, good morning everyone. Chris just maybe to hit on the development side given you, you just talked a lot about kind of what's going on on the, you know, kind of revpar and, and, and macro side. Can you just walk us through you know, obviously we now have the initial expectation of 6 to 7 for next year. A little bit more about what your kind of underlying assumption is there and, and sort of how it might factor in, you know, possibilities of like what could you just walk us through? What could be a little bit better if the development environment were to improve? Obviously, your starts remain really compelling and, and what could be a little bit worse, just what would be the, the kind of range or bound of outcomes there? Thank you.

嗨，大家早安。克里斯也許只是想談談開發方面的問題，你剛才談到了很多關於轉速方面正在發生的事情，以及宏觀的情況。您能簡單介紹一下嗎？多一點關於你的基本假設是什麼，以及它如何影響你知道的可能性，例如你能引導我們經歷什麼？如果開發環境再改善一點，還能有什麼更好的地方呢？顯然，你的開始仍然非常引人注目，而且可能會更糟一點，結果的範圍或界限是什麼？謝謝。

And I'll, I'll offer some comments and Kevin development. So I should, I should cede to him too. I mean, I do think we feel obviously really good about 6 to 7. We have more visibility into that than obviously the macro. We have a view on macro that's based as I described on consensus, but we have, we have good visibility, we got a lot of stuff under construction, we have a lot of momentum on conversion. So, you know, the way I would say is just, you know, a couple of points of clarification. One, the 6 to 7 is organic, that's not sort of incorporating a, you know, partnerships in the, you know, which is why this year's numbers coming in hotter than that at 7 to 7.5, I would say implied in it is about a third of it would be conversions. That's about where we'll end up this year. By the way, if you take out the partnerships, we'll end up at about a third of you, the partnerships in, we're about 50%. So, but we don't again, expect to repeat that and that's how we get to it again. It's a super granular analysis. Other than in the year for the year conversions, everything is identified, meaning, you know, it's in the pipeline, it's, it's, it's happening and so it's really, you know, delivering on that, on that one, you know, and if, and if it's going to deliver next year, it's pretty much gotta be under construction right now or in the next, there may be a brand or two in a place or two around the world, including the US where you could still start something maybe with Liar right now or in the next 30 days and sneak it in next year, but it gets, it gets awfully hard. So in terms of the new build stuff, we have a good sense of that again, conversions, we have a good sense of a lot of those because like spark and other they're in the pipeline. So, you know, and then there's a segment of those conversions that, that are unidentified. We have a really good track record on, on delivering that. Obviously, those numbers, you know, at, at a third have been moving up. We've done more than that historically, but, you know, they've moved up from the low 20s to about about a third and, you know, we're taking a very disproportionate share of conversion opportunities around the world. And that's because our brands are performing really, really well and we don't see, you know, any, any risk of that. So, you know, what could make it, you know, like at the higher or lower end of the range, I think, you know, sort of intellectually the right way to say it is, you know, maybe, you know, it has to be ultimately in the conversion space because of what I just said, I mean, maybe there's a few more that sneaked under construction at the end of this year. But, you know, I don't think that's going to move the needle a whole heck of a lot. I think it's that, you know, we're more than a third in the conversions. I think that's possible. I'm not, I'm not saying, I think that'll happen, but I think that's possible. We give a range of 6 to 7 for a reason, you know, that, you know, there's still a heck of a lot of work that Kevin and our development teams around the world have to do. I hope we make it look a little bit easy. It's not. But, we feel really good about that range. And so again, you know, Jack intellectually it to, to do, you know, better or worse relative to the midpoint of that range is sort of, is sort of conversions more, more or less.

我會，我會提供一些評論和凱文的發展。所以我應該，我也應該讓給他。我的意思是，我確實認為我們對 6 到 7 的感覺顯然非常好。我們對宏觀的看法是基於我所描述的共識，但我們有良好的可見性，我們有很多東西正在建設中，我們在轉換方面有很大的動力。所以，你知道，我想說的只是澄清幾點。一，6 到 7 是有機的，這並不是將合作夥伴關係納入，你知道，這就是為什麼今年的數字比 7 到 7.5 的數字更熱，我想說其中暗示的是其中三分之一是轉化。這就是我們今年的結局。順便說一句，如果你去掉合夥企業，我們最終會占到你們的大約三分之一，合夥企業，我們大約佔 50%。所以，但我們不會再次期望重複這一點，這就是我們再次做到這一點的方式。這是超精細的分析。除了逐年的轉換之外，一切都已確定，這意味著，你知道，它正在醞釀之中，它正在發生，所以它真的，你知道，正在實現這一目標，你知道，如果，如果它要在明年交付，它幾乎現在或明年就必須在建設中，世界上的一兩個地方可能會有一兩個品牌，包括美國，你仍然可以在那裡開始做一些事情也許現在就與Liar 合作，或者在接下來的30 天內，然後在明年偷偷地使用它，但它變得非常困難。因此，就新構建的內容而言，我們對轉換有很好的感覺，我們對很多內容都有很好的感覺，因為像 Spark 和其他東西一樣，它們正在醞釀中。所以，你知道，還有一部分轉換是未識別的。我們在實現這一目標方面擁有非常良好的記錄。顯然，這些數字已經上升了三分之一。歷史上我們所做的比這更多，但是，你知道，他們已經從 20 多歲上升到大約三分之一，你知道，我們在世界各地的轉換機會中佔據了非常不成比例的份額。這是因為我們的品牌表現非常非常好，我們沒有看到任何風險。所以，你知道，什麼可以使它，你知道，就像在範圍的較高或較低端，我認為，你知道，從理智上來說，正確的說法是，你知道，也許，你知道，它正如我剛才所說，最終必須在轉換空間中，我的意思是，今年年底可能還會有更多的項目正在建設中。但是，你知道，我認為這不會帶來太大的改變。我認為我們的轉換率超過了三分之一。我認為這是可能的。我不是，我不是說，我認為這會發生，但我認為這是可能的。我們給出 6 到 7 的範圍是有原因的，你知道，你知道，Kevin 和我們在世界各地的開發團隊還有很多工作要做。我希望我們讓它看起來有點簡單。它不是。但是，我們對這個範圍感覺非常好。所以，你知道，傑克在理智上認為，相對於該範圍的中點，更好或更差，是更多、更多或更少的轉換。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

And the next question will be from Stephen Grambling, from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

下一個問題將由摩根士丹利的史蒂芬·格蘭布林提出。請繼續。

Thanks. I guess maybe a follow up on the nug commentary. I guess. How does the pipeline of what's in construction just from a fee per room mix compared to the existing base? And have you seen any change in the development as, as rates have started to come down here and letting is loosened?

謝謝。我想也許是對 nug 評論的後續。我猜。與現有基地相比，僅按每個房間收費的正在建設的項目如何？隨著這裡的利率開始下降並且出租放鬆，您是否看到了發展方面的任何變化？

Yeah, thanks, Steve. I'll, I'll take the second part first because it's because it's a little bit easier. I think you are starting to see things free up a little bit in terms of the development environment as you know, rates haven't come dramatically down, but they've come down a little bit and I think people can see a path, you know, to a better day on the capital front and we are actually starting to, there's a lot more conversations around change of ownerships which I think supports what Chris was just saying about conversions because you've had as is as is normal for this part of the cycle. You've had pretty wide spread between bid and ask on transactions and transactions drive as you know, a lot of conversions. And so we're starting to, I think, see a little bit of a thawing in bid ask spreads which has led to more applications in the last 30 days or so on change of ownerships and things like that we're starting to see a lot of more activity there which, which bodes well. And then your first by the fees per room, we're really not seeing any change. I mean, if you think about the complexion of what we're, what we're putting under construction and what we're delivering, it is still largely, largely on an overall basis, the same mix. So we're not seeing dramatic changes in the mix. You're obviously seeing revpar growth over time. You're seeing mark to market on fees as contracts roll over. We continue to take the price in terms of license fees a little bit and you know, the vast majority of our development actually is in the brand where we get the highest fees. And so when you put all that in the model, we're really not seeing a change in fees perimeter. In fact, it will grow over time.

是的，謝謝，史蒂夫。我會，我會先看第二部分，因為它更容易一點。我認為您開始看到開發環境方面的事情有所釋放，正如您所知，費率並沒有大幅下降，但已經下降了一點，我認為人們可以看到一條道路，您知道，為了資本方面更好的一天，我們實際上已經開始了，圍繞所有權變更有更多的對話，我認為這支持克里斯剛才所說的關於轉換的內容，因為你已經按原樣進行了這部分的正常操作的周期。如您所知，交易的出價和要價之間的差距相當大，交易驅動了許多轉換。因此，我認為，我們開始看到買賣價差有所回暖，這導致在過去 30 天左右的時間裡出現了更多關於所有權變更和類似情況的申請，我們開始看到那裡有更多的活動，這是個好兆頭。首先，從每間客房的費用來看，我們確實沒有看到任何變化。我的意思是，如果你考慮我們的情況、我們正在建造的內容以及我們正在交付的內容，你會發現，在很大程度上，總體上，它仍然是相同的組合。因此，我們沒有看到組合發生巨大變化。隨著時間的推移，您顯然會看到每間收入的成長。隨著合約到期，您會看到費用按市價計價。我們繼續在許可費方面採取一點價格，你知道，我們的絕大多數開發實際上是在我們獲得最高費用的品牌中。因此，當您將所有這些放入模型中時，我們實際上沒有看到費用範圍發生變化。事實上，它會隨著時間的推移而增長。

Awesome. Thank you.

驚人的。謝謝。

And the next question is from Carlo Santarelli, from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的卡洛桑塔雷利。請繼續。

Hey Chris, I just building on, on your point that you think, you know, kind of 25 looks a lot like 24. I I would assume kind of rep are being the primary driver of that given that the group pace that you you guys currently have and I believe you said low double digits to low teams for 25 in 2016 or sorry, 25 in 2026. How do we interpret kind of the way you're, you're thinking about leisure and business transient as we move into 25 based on kind of what, what we know today.

嘿克里斯，我只是根據你的觀點，你知道，25 看起來很像 24。低兩位數球隊，或抱歉，2026 年25 人。

Yeah, I, I, you know, I would say, and I tried to cover it but I'll, I'll click a little harder on it, you know, and in, in group I think you're going to see, you know, a very balance, you're going to see the highest growth rate. I mean, I don't have the number, I mean, we don't have a budget yet, but you're going to see comparable growth. I mean, you heard the numbers we're talking about for like third quarter, up five or 6%. I think, I think you're going to be looking at that kind of level of, of growth in, in the group segment if you look at the whole world and I think that will be pretty balanced, as I said, between, between price and, and occupancy between rate and occupancy. I think in, in leisure again, if you're solving for something in, in the twos and that's at five, I think, I think this is transient, ends up being sort of it more in that range, you know, again with a balance. But if, if if group is in the mid single digits, I think, I think business transient is in the low single digits but you know, higher than one, I mean, similar to this year, we're sort of trending it to low two, something like that. And then I think leisure, which again is, you know, II I think I said this maybe I didn't, you know, it's still treading way over historical levels. We don't think we'll go backwards. We don't think we're going backwards this year, but we think it's sort of flat, you know, and so I would say my expectation and I already said this would be demand is flat, maybe even a little bit down as you continue to normalize the work environment and the like, but because you have pretty good pricing power and you still have inflationary pressures particularly here, but in a lot of parts of the world, we feel like we'll be able to push rate a little bit. And so I would say we think leisure again, it's early, right? We don't, I don't have a budget in front of me, but we've talked a lot about it. I, I think leisure is positive but not much positive. I mean, so I would say it's like, you know, you know, very, very modestly positive. And when you put those three things together, that's really not that far off of sort of where we're ending up this year. I mean, I think that's why I say, I think when you finish 25 at least sitting here today, it feels an awful lot like, you know, 24.

是的，我，我，你知道，我會說，我試圖掩蓋它，但我會，我會更加努力地點擊它，你知道，在團體中，我想你會看到，你知道，非常平衡，你會看到最高的成長率。我的意思是，我沒有這個數字，我的意思是，我們還沒有預算，但你會看到類似的成長。我的意思是，你聽到了我們談論的第三季的數字，成長了 5% 或 6%。我認為，如果你放眼整個世界，我認為你會看到集團部門的這種增長水平，我認為正如我所說，這將是相當平衡的價格和入住率之間的關係。我想，在閒暇時，如果你正在解決一些問題，在兩兩，那是五，我想，我認為這是暫時的，最終會在這個範圍內，你知道，再次與平衡。但是，如果，如果集團處於中個位數，我認為，我認為業務瞬態處於低個位數，但你知道，高於一，我的意思是，與今年類似，我們的趨勢是低二，類似的東西。然後我想到休閒，這又是，你知道，我想我說過這句話，也許我沒有，你知道，它仍然超越了歷史水平。我們認為我們不會倒退。 We don't think we're going backwards this year, but we think it's sort of flat, you know, and so I would say my expectation and I already said this would be demand is flat, maybe even a little bit down as you continue to normalize the work environment and the like, but because you have pretty good pricing power and you still have inflationary pressures particularly here, but in a lot of parts of the world, we feel like we'll be able to push rate a little位元.所以我想說，我們再次考慮休閒，現在還早，對吧？我們沒有，我面前沒有預算，但我們已經討論了很多。我，我認為休閒是積極的，但沒有多大積極作用。我的意思是，所以我想說，這就像，你知道，你知道，非常非常積極。當你把這三件事放在一起時，這與我們今年的最終目標相去不遠。我的意思是，我想這就是為什麼我說，我想當你至少今天坐在這裡完成 25 歲的時候，感覺非常像，你知道，24 歲。

I appreciate that, Chris. Thank you.

我很感激，克里斯。謝謝。

And the next question is from David Katz from Jefferies, please. Go ahead.

下一個問題是來自 Jefferies 的 David Katz。前進。

Hi, good morning, everybody.

嗨，大家早安。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

Chris, you mentioned earlier that, you know, you're getting an outsized and it's obvious amount of conversions. Can, can you provide just a little bit of insight on, you know, how you're doing that? Is that just good old fashioned, you know, shoe leather and competition or whatever other, you know, euphemism or, you know, are there some specific drivers, you know, because we are obviously observing, you know, key money more carefully across the industry than usual, et cetera.

克里斯，你之前提到過，你知道，你的轉換量非常大，而且轉換量是顯而易見的。你能提供一點關於你是如何做到這一點的見解嗎？這只是老式的，你知道，鞋皮革和競爭還是其他什麼，你知道，委婉的說法，或者，你知道，是否有一些特定的驅動因素，你知道，因為我們顯然正在更仔細地觀察，你知道，關鍵資金該行業比平時等等。

Yeah, I mean, listen, I, I'll Kevin may want to come over the top on this because he and his team are doing the shoe leather. I do think it's partly shoe leather. I mean, listen, I think we're, I say to our teams all the time like our philosophy and how we run the company is we're pretty scrappy, we're pretty gritty. We don't take anything for granted. So we get out and hustle. So our, our teams, our teams hustle now. I, you know, I don't know what everybody else is doing, but we're, we're hustling. We've built really good relationships. So a lot of this business, not all of it, particularly in spark because they're bringing a bunch of new folks into the system, which are going to be hugely beneficial over time as we saw with Hampton decades ago. But we have really solid relationships where we've done a really good job with people and, and, and doing what they ultimately are looking for, which leads to what I think is really driving it, which is performance. I mean, you're signing up to these deals and not to be pedantic. But these are, you know, at the short end, generally very short end 10, but more, more likely these are 20 plus year relationships that you're entering into with no real way out. And so, you know, these people are investing billions of dollars when you aggregate all of this development, even all the conversions and they want to have confidence that when they're signing up, they're going to make money, but they're signing up for a long time that they've got, you know, they got the right system that they're signing up for. And so the truth is our track record is really good. Our brands are performing really well. Our market share is the highest it's ever been. It's significantly higher than any of our competitors. And so that doesn't mean we don't have to compete. I know, you know, I say to the team all the time for this. Cool. Why don't we win every deal? Why, why, why should we, why are we only winning half the deals even though we're whatever, 6% of the global market? Like Kevin explained himself on that, but, but getting half the business is, is pretty darn good and I think it ultimately comes down to, you know, our ability our ability over a long period of time to be able to deliver performance for, for owners because we can be witty, charming, scrappy gritty.

是的，我的意思是，聽著，我，我凱文可能想在這件事上做得更好，因為他和他的團隊正在做鞋子皮革。我確實認為它部分是鞋革。我的意思是，聽著，我認為我們一直對我們的團隊說，就像我們的理念以及我們經營公司的方式一樣，我們非常鬥志旺盛，我們非常堅韌。我們不認為任何事情是理所當然的。所以我們出去忙碌。所以我們、我們的團隊、我們的團隊現在都在忙碌。我，你知道，我不知道其他人在做什麼，但我們正在努力。我們已經建立了非常好的關係。所以很多這樣的業務，而不是全部，特別是在Spark 中，因為他們將一群新人帶入系統，隨著時間的推移，這將帶來巨大的好處，就像我們幾十年前在漢普頓看到的那樣。但我們與人們有著非常牢固的關係，我們與人們做得非常好，並且做他們最終想要的事情，這導致了我認為真正的推動力，那就是績效。我的意思是，你簽署這些協議並不是為了迂腐。但你知道，這些都是短期的，通常非常短暫的10年，但更可能的是，這些是你正在進入的長達20多年的關係，而且沒有真正的出路。所以，你知道，當你匯總所有這些開發，甚至所有轉換時，這些人正在投資數十億美元，他們希望有信心，當他們註冊時，他們會賺錢，但他們'他們註冊了很長一段時間，你知道，他們註冊了正確的系統。事實上，我們的業績記錄非常好。我們的品牌表現非常好。我們的市場佔有率是有史以來最高的。它明顯高於我們的任何競爭對手。因此，這並不意味著我們不必競爭。我知道，你知道，我一直為此對團隊說。涼爽的。為什麼我們不能贏得每筆交易？為什麼、為什麼、為什麼我們應該、為什麼我們只贏得一半的交易，儘管我們佔全球市場的 6%？就像凱文自己解釋的那樣，但是，獲得一半的業務是非常好的，我認為這最終取決於，你知道，我們的能力，我們在很長一段時間內能夠交付績效的能力，對於業主來說，因為我們可以機智、迷人、鬥志旺盛。

We can be all the things we think we are or hope to be. But in the end, it's about performance. They're investing money in these assets or in this relationship with us to, to drive returns.

我們可以成為我們認為自己是或希望成為的一切。但歸根究底，還是性能。他們將資金投資於這些資產或與我們的關係，以提高回報。

Thank you. Thank you. The next question will be from Robin Farley, from U BS. Please go ahead.

謝謝。謝謝。下一個問題將由瑞銀集團的 Robin Farley 提出。請繼續。

Great, thanks. Chris. I wonder if you could talk a little bit about how your visibility on business transient and leisure transient kind of compares to, you know, what it would have been in 2019. In other words, you feel like you have more visibility or less visibility today. And then if I could squeeze one in for Kevin, just on the comments about what drove better ebitda and guide would love to hear about the non revpar fees and, and then also I think there was a timing benefit there as well. Thanks.

太好了，謝謝。克里斯.我想知道您是否可以談談您在商務短暫性和休閒短暫性方面的可見度與 2019 年相比如何。然後，如果我能為凱文擠一擠，就關於什麼推動了更好的息稅折舊攤銷前利潤的評論，指南很想听聽非每間收入費用，而且我認為那裡也有一個時間優勢。謝謝。

Thanks Rob. And I would say the answer is we don't have a tremendous amount of incremental visibility. You know, the, the place we obviously have the most visibility in group, which is why we give you those statistics. You know, that that business is pretty darn sticky. We have found, you know, recently and over long spans of time, people have needs when they still have pent up needs. So we feel really good about that. But leisure, you know, leisure and transient, I mean, leisure, transient, business transient, our visibility is limited, certainly limited to, you know, 60 or 90 days out. But then, you know, anecdotally, particularly with business transient, just talking to all of our customers, you know, and which we do all the time, our sales teams, I do other others and senior management do, you know, we survey them? We, you know, we do have data that tells us what they're thinking. And that gives us a, a rationale for what I'm saying to you, I think will happen next year. But they haven't booked the business yet, like unlike groups where they booked it, they haven't booked it. And then, and then leisure is where we have the least, you know, where we have the least visibility into the future. Now, the reason I started my whole answer in my filibuster with consensus view was obviously not lost on you or anybody else, you know, particularly in leisure and business transient. You know, as it relates to how we think about next year, a lot of it, you know, so goes the economy to a degree. So goes those segments. So that's why it always has to start with a view, a consensus view of like, what the heck do we think in the economy? It's not that the group business is, is immune to it. It's just stickier. It's just, it is not as immune to, you know, short term swings over time as, as the other segments. So, that's, it's about, you know, it's about what I mean. Have we gotten better or we, you know, do we have better listening posts with our customers than we might have had five years ago? Yeah, I think so. I think we're better at understanding what's going on, but the reality in terms of booking visibility is about the same.

謝謝羅布。我想說的答案是我們沒有大量的增量可見性。你知道，我們顯然在團體中擁有最高知名度，這就是我們為您提供這些統計數據的原因。你知道，這項業務非常黏。我們發現，最近以及在很長一段時間內，人們在仍有被壓抑的需求時就會有需求。所以我們對此感覺非常好。但休閒，你知道，休閒和短暫，我的意思是，休閒，短暫，商務短暫，我們的知名度是有限的，當然僅限於，你知道，60或90天。但是，有趣的是，特別是在業務短暫的情況下，我們一直在與我們所有的客戶交談，我們的銷售團隊、我和其他人以及高級管理層都這樣做，你知道，我們進行了調查他們？你知道，我們確實有數據可以告訴我們他們的想法。這給了我們一個合理的理由來解釋我對你們說的話，我認為明年就會發生。但他們還沒有預訂業務，就像他們預訂的團體不同，他們還沒有預訂。然後，休閒是我們擁有的最少的地方，你知道，我們對未來的了解最少。現在，我在阻撓中以共識觀點開始我的整個回答的原因顯然對你或其他任何人來說都沒有丟失，你知道，特別是在休閒和商務短暫的情況下。你知道，因為這關係到我們如何看待明年，很多事情，你知道，經濟在某種程度上也是如此。這些部分也是如此。所以這就是為什麼它總是必須從一種觀點開始，一種共識觀點，例如我們到底對經濟有何看法？這並不是說集團業務可以免受其影響。只是更黏而已。只是，它不像其他細分市場那樣能夠免受隨時間推移的短期波動的影響。所以，這就是，你知道，這就是我的意思。我們變得更好了，或者我們，你知道，我們與客戶的傾聽站是否比五年前更好？是的，我想是的。我認為我們更能理解正在發生的事情，但預訂可見性方面的現實情況大致相同。

Yeah. And then on the, on the non rep part driven fees, we were clearly we were pleased with the performance. If, if rep part came in for all the reasons we talked about under our expectations, the non rep part driven fees. You know, if you think about performance in the, in the, in the credit card business, in our purchasing business, things like that was all sort of above algorithm if you will above the overall rate of the business and then on timing, it was about half the, about half the beat from the third quarter were timing items if you, if you get behind it and, and and so that's about all I'd say about that.

是的。然後，關於非代表部分驅動的費用，我們顯然對業績感到滿意。如果，如果代表部分由於我們在我們的預期下討論的所有原因而進入，那麼非代表部分會驅動費用。你知道，如果你考慮信用卡業務、我們的採購業務中的績效，類似的事情就是上面的演算法，如果你高於業務的整體利率，然後在時間上，它大約是第三季的一半，大約一半的節拍是計時項目，如果你落後的話，所以這就是我要說的全部。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And our next question is from Smedes Rose from City. Please go ahead.

我們的下一個問題來自曼城的斯梅德斯·羅斯。請繼續。

Hi, thank you. I just wanted to ask, hey, good morning. You talked a lot about just group going into next year and it has been and continues. To be, it looks like kind of a silver lining in the space. And I was just wondering when you look at what you're seeing now, for, for 25 groups, I guess, particularly in the US. Is there, is it driven more by incremental, like, you know, citywide conventions? Is it more smaller groups that I think have been doing well for a while? Is there anything just kind of in particular that you could call out that's, you know, helping to drive that continued strength there?

你好，謝謝。我只是想問，嘿，早安。你談到了很多關於明年球隊的情況，而且這種情況一直持續下去。事實上，它看起來像是這個領域的一線希望。我只是想知道，當你看看你現在所看到的情況時，我猜有 25 個群體，尤其是在美國。它是否更多地是由增量驅動的，例如，你知道，全市範圍的會議？我認為一段時間以來表現良好的是否是更小的團體？有什麼特別的事情可以指出來，有助於推動那裡的持續成長嗎？

I, I'd say it's a little bit of everything if you think about what's going on. Certainly, the big city wides are, are picking up and not surprisingly, they just take that and we've been saying this on every call, it just takes longer in gestation to get those, the, that business going because they book multiple years in advance, they spend millions of dollars planning these events and they went for two or three years unwilling and, or unable to do that. And so we're certainly seeing wind in our sales, you know, from that, but we're also seeing really good, social group business. I mean, people still want to get out and see people. I mean, I, you know, that that is still a thing and then I'd say corporate corporate meetings are, we're seeing really terrific demand. I mean, even though the workplace is sort of normalizing, you know, somewhat, it is, it is not going back to what it was and the reality is a lot of people have needs and that they're making, you know, sort of making up for a time when they were more remote and they need to do meetings for innovation and culture building. And the like, and a lot of people have sort of changed pretty permanently us included by the way, our work environment, a way where, you know, we take less space because people are more mobile and it requires the them, you know, needing space outside of their own office footprint more than historically they have. And so that's a nice, that's a nice little wind in our sale as well. So that's a long way of saying it's broad based. I mean, there's, it's not, you know, it's not one thing driving it.

我，如果你考慮一下正在發生的事情，我會說這是一切的一部分。當然，大城市正在崛起，毫不奇怪，他們只是接受了這一點，我們在每次電話中都這麼說，只是需要更長的醞釀時間才能讓這些業務繼續下去，因為他們預訂了多年他們事先花費了數百萬美元來計劃這些活動，但他們花了兩三年的時間不願意或無法這樣做。因此，我們確實看到了銷售的強勁成長，但我們也看到了非常好的社交團體業務。我的意思是，人們仍然想出去見見別人。我的意思是，我，你知道，這仍然是一件事，然後我會說公司會議，我們看到了非常巨大的需求。我的意思是，儘管工作場所在某種程度上正在正常化，但你知道，在某種程度上，它不會回到原來的狀態，而現實是很多人都有需求，他們正在製造，你知道，排序彌補他們距離較遠、需要召開創新和文化建設會議的時間。諸如此類，很多人已經永久地改變了我們，包括我們的工作環境，你知道，我們佔用的空間更少，因為人們流動性更大，這需要他們，你知道，他們比以往更需要自己辦公室之外的空間。所以這對我們的銷售來說也是一個很好的小風。因此，從長遠來看，它具有廣泛的基礎。我的意思是，有，不是，你知道，驅動它的不是一件事。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

And our next question is from Lizzie Dove from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Lizzie Dove。請繼續。

Hi there. Thanks so much for taking the question. I wanted to go back to the unit growth piece, which is obviously very strong. I believe the majority of the pipeline is coming from international just about so love a bit of a refresh of just where you see the key opportunities, the key markets driving that international expansion, maybe a refresh on the China piece as well with the stimulus and just is there any way that you kind of have to adapt your portfolio as you take those brands to different markets.

你好呀。非常感謝您提出問題。我想回到單位成長部分，這顯然非常強大。我相信大部分的管道都來自國際，所以喜歡對你看到的關鍵機會、推動國際擴張的關鍵市場進行一些更新，也許對中國部分以及刺激措施和當你將這些品牌推向不同市場時，有什麼方法必須調整你的產品組合嗎？

Yeah, so that, I mean, I guess the end Lizzie, thanks for the question is the easy part is, yeah, you do have to adapt your brands and your prototypes and your room sizes and things like that to markets around the world. They still, they still maintain, you know, their essence and their positioning within the brand ladder and their swim lanes and things like that. But you're obviously adapting them around the world. I think that sort of you think about the complexity of the pipeline. It's about, you know, it's a little over half, call it 55 or so percent outside the US, the stuff that's under construction. Just given the dynamics of some of the things that are going on around the world limit our limited service business in China, things like that. It's about 80% of what's under construction is outside the US. You know, deliveries this year are going to be sort of more like more like the pipeline sort of think about it as you know, for mid 40s percent in the US and 55 or so percent outside the US. I think that the China business is doing great. We think both, you know, approval starts. I'm jumping around a little bit but sorry, it was a broad question. Our approval starts and opens. We think we'll all be up in China this year. We're, we're even though there's a macro slowdown in China and you know, you read a lot of headlines about real estate bubbles and the like in China, what's going on a lot in China is they're trying to find different uses for some of these, these buildings and some of the real estate that's been developed. And our business, you know, particularly the limited service part of our business, both in our master limited partnerships and in our, our Hilton Garden Inn business is, is able to take advantage of a lot of the adapter reuse of those businesses of, of those pieces of real estate. So, and I think when you take a step back from it though, you know, I know you're relatively new to the coverage, but you've, you've gone through the materials and we outlined in our Investor day is, you know, kind of over the time period that we gave you for that. We think, you know, call it half of the half of the, of the nug three, you know, 3 to 3.5 points will be in the Americas a point or so will be in em and two points will be in APAC and, you know, that'll move around a little bit year to year. But generally speaking, you know, those will be the trends and then you'll see in the Western world, more conversions in the developed world, more new builds in Asia. We're shifting our business to APAC outside of China. So a lot of growth opportunities there, a lot of growth opportunities in India, a lot of growth opportunities in the middle. So we're really, you know, seeing the benefit of a diversified set of products that we can deploy and when certain parts of the world are strong, we can deploy in those parts of the world. When certain parts slow down, you know, diversification is a beautiful thing. And we were, we're continued, we're continuing to grow through it.

是的，所以，我的意思是，我想最後，莉齊，謝謝你提出的問題，簡單的部分是，是的，你必須調整你的品牌、你的原型、你的房間大小以及類似的東西，以適應世界各地的市場。他們仍然，他們仍然保持，你知道，他們的本質和他們在品牌階梯和泳道以及類似的東西中的定位。但顯然你正在世界各地調整它們。我認為您會考慮管道的複雜性。你知道，大約有一半多一點，即 55% 左右，是在美國以外的地方，正在建設中的東西。鑑於世界各地正在發生的一些事情限制了我們在中國的有限服務業務，諸如此類的事情。約 80% 的興建工程位於美國境外。你知道，今年的交付量將更像是管道，正如你所知，美國 40% 左右的交付量和美國以外地區的 55% 左右。我認為中國業務做得很好。我們認為，你知道，批准都是開始的。我有點跳來跳去，但抱歉，這是一個廣泛的問題。我們的批准開始並開放。我們認為今年我們都會在中國。我們，我們即使中國宏觀經濟放緩，你知道，你讀了很多關於中國房地產泡沫之類的頭條新聞，中國正在發生的很多事情是他們試圖尋找不同的方法其中一些、這些建築物和一些已開發的房地產的用途。您知道，我們的業務，特別是我們業務的有限服務部分，無論是在我們的主有限合夥企業中，還是在我們的希爾頓花園酒店業務中，都能夠利用這些業務的大量適配器重用，這些房地產。所以，我認為，當你退後一步時，你知道，我知道你對報道相對較新，但是你已經，你已經閱讀了這些材料，我們在投資者日中概述的是，你知道，在我們給你的時間段內。我們認為，你知道，稱之為三分之二的一半，你知道，3 到 3.5 個點將在美洲，一個點左右將在歐洲，兩個點將在亞太地區，並且，你要知道，每年都會有一點變化。但總的來說，你知道，這些將是趨勢，然後你會在西方世界看到，已開發國家有更多的改造，亞洲有更多的新建築。我們正在將業務轉移到中國以外的亞太地區。因此，那裡有很多成長機會，印度有很多成長機會，中間也有很多成長機會。因此，我們確實看到了我們可以部署的多元化產品的好處，當世界某些地區表現強勁時，我們可以在世界這些地區部署。當某些部分放緩時，你知道，多元化是一件美好的事情。我們過去、現在、我們都在透過它繼續成長。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And the next question is from Brandt Montour from Barclays. Please go ahead.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的布蘭特·蒙圖爾。請繼續。

Good morning, everybody. Most of my questions have been, have been asked and answered. I'm curious on slh, you know, I know it's relatively new. But, but that's a, you know, that's a big, big chunk of luxury hotels in your system on the website, people can earn and burn their points there. Curious how the early traction has been if you've done anything sort of out of the norm in terms of marketing those hotels to loyalty members and how you're feeling about the the start there. Yeah.

大家早安。我的大部分問題已經被提出並得到解答。我對 slh 很好奇，你知道，我知道它相對較新。但是，但是，你知道，這是網站系統中很大一部分豪華酒店，人們可以在那裡賺取和燃燒積分。我想知道，如果您在向忠誠會員行銷這些酒店方面做了一些不尋常的事情，那麼早期的吸引力如何，以及您對一開始的感受如何。是的。

I mean, you're right granted it is super early but in the sense that they just went in and, you know, sort of the middle end of the summer and a lot of those properties are resorts in, in very, you know, unique locations that look way ahead of time. So there's only so much data we have just given the time of year it came in. But the data that we do have is, is super good, meaning that, you know, our customers are engaging with it. They're looking at, they're looking at the availability of these properties. Now, many of them this summer weren't available because, you know, they had already been booked, given, given when they came in the system. They are where they did utilize it, they utilized it in a very healthy way for redemptions, which is exactly sort of the behavior set that, that we're looking for. And so I'd say, you know, you know, obviously a long way to go, but we feel very good about it, the ownership community and slh feels very good about the start of the relationship. And I think as we get into the, you know, get a little bit of time, a quarter or two and then certainly get into, you know, the spring and summer of next year. I think you'll see some real uptick. But you go in like, if you go on our app, you know, I happen to do it and I was, I was in in Italy and Tuscany to meet some friends where we have a few hotels go on the app and like, you know, hotels nearby me and, you know, we went from having like, you know, three hotels to like 40 hotels. So, and many of them are really small and, and very unique. But that's exactly what, for a leisure high end leisure customer they're looking for. And so it really gives us, you know, significant enhancement in terms of shots on goal for people to book and importantly for people to be able to dream that are road warriors and have a place to realize those dreams.

我的意思是，你是對的，承認現在太早了，但從某種意義上說，他們剛剛進去，你知道，在夏天的中末，很多這些房產都是度假村，非常，你知道，獨特的位置，看起來遙遙領先。因此，我們剛剛給出的數據是一年中的時間。他們正在尋找這些房產的可用性。現在，今年夏天他們中的許多人無法使用，因為，你知道，當他們進入系統時，他們已經被預訂、給予、給予。他們確實利用了它，他們以一種非常健康的方式利用它來進行贖回，這正是我們正在尋找的行為設定。所以我想說，你知道，你知道，顯然還有很長的路要走，但我們對此感覺非常好，所有權社區和 slh 對這種關係的開始感覺非常好。我認為，當我們進入，你知道，花一點時間，一兩個季度，然後肯定會進入，你知道，明年的春季和夏季。我想你會看到一些真正的上升。但是你就像，如果你進入我們的應用程序，你知道，我碰巧這樣做了，我當時在意大利和托斯卡納會見一些朋友，我們有幾家酒店進入應用程序，就像，你我附近的飯店，我們從擁有3 家飯店變成了40 家飯店。因此，其中許多都非常小而且非常獨特。但這正是他們所尋找的休閒高端休閒客戶。所以，你知道，它確實為我們帶來了顯著的提高，讓人們可以預訂射門，更重要的是，讓人們能夠夢想成為公路戰士，並有一個地方實現這些夢想。

Very good. Thank you.

非常好。謝謝。

And the next question is from Michael Belisario from Baird. Please go ahead.

下一個問題來自貝爾德 (Baird) 的邁克爾貝利薩裡奧 (Michael Belisario)。請繼續。

Thanks. Good morning, Chris. You, you sort of alluded to it but just wanted to dig into revpar index and pipeline share a little bit more. Is it fair to assume that in a slower revpar backdrop, that's maybe actually better for your business, at least on a relative basis. And then any similar similarities or differences that you see today compared to 2018, 2019 when revpar was last and kind of stuck in first gear. Thanks.

謝謝。早上好，克里斯。您，您有點提到了它，但只是想深入研究 Revpar 指數和管道共享。可以公平地假設，在轉速較慢的背景下，這實際上可能對您的業務更好，至少相對而言是如此。然後，與 2018 年和 2019 年相比，您今天看到的任何類似的相似之處或差異，當時的 Revpar 是最後的，有點停留在第一檔。謝謝。

Yeah, I mean, it's interesting. I said earlier so I don't want to contradict myself that, you know, we obviously always like to see revpar higher. And so I will state again, I'd always like to see it higher but having said that there are, and, and then you alluded to it in the, in the, in the approach to the question, there are benefits of the environment we're in and we saw those benefits going back to, to that time where, you know, typically we are able to deliver if we do our jobs better share in terms of performance on, you know, our existing assets and we take a, you know, and more difficult environments, environments where financing is less available, we end up disproportionately getting more conversions and more of what is available for new construction because our brands are just more fable. And so that is certainly what we've been experiencing. If you look at the numbers across the board on development, whether you break it apart on new construction or conversions, you look at market share numbers which continue, I mean, they're very high. So getting them that they continue to grow, we've grown market share every single year in the eight, almost eight going on 18 years. I've been here. So the higher you go, the harder it gets, but we're super focused on that. So I'm not giving you a specific answer because there isn't one but this environment is, is not, has not, is not terrible for us in, in, in that way. And the, the, the, the really nice thing is I think we demonstrated in the third quarter and we'll demonstrate for the full year and I think we'll demonstrate again next year and the year after is, you know, the model is really resilient that, you know, even, I mean, think about it, even in the environment we're in where we're going to be in the twos on same store growth, we're going to deliver a circuit of 10% ebita growth and higher than that. And EPS and free cash flow that doesn't, I mean, that doesn't feel so bad. Imagine, imagine what could be done in, you know, even better environment from a same store point of view. So that's not as I said, I know I'm not answering it specifically but, you know, these conditions are, you know, we, we, we, we feel like whatever, I, I guess I, I finalize it by saying we can't determine the macro, what we can do always is out, you know, outperform competition. And so we feel good about in this environment, our ability to do that. We feel good about that in, in our job is in every environment to do that. But we, yeah, and we will, but we feel we, you know, we're not, this is not a terrible environment in terms of our ability to deliver.

是的，我的意思是，這很有趣。我之前說過，所以我不想自相矛盾，你知道，我們顯然總是希望看到轉速更高。所以我要再次聲明，我總是希望看到更高的水平，但是話雖如此，然後你在解決問題的方法中提到了環境的好處我們參與其中，我們看到了這些好處，可以追溯到那個時候，如果我們更好地做好我們的工作，我們就能夠實現我們現有資產的績效共享，並且我們採取，你知道，在更困難的環境中，在融資較少的環境中，我們最終會不成比例地獲得更多的轉換和更多可用於新建築的東西，因為我們的品牌更傳奇。這肯定是我們一直在經歷的事情。如果你觀察全面的開發數據，無論你將其分解為新建還是改造，你都會看到市場份額的數字，我的意思是，它們非常高。因此，為了讓他們繼續成長，我們的市佔率在 18 年的八年、幾乎八年中每年都在成長。我來過這裡。所以你走得越高，就越難，但我們非常注意這一點。所以我不會給你一個具體的答案，因為沒有一個答案，但這個環境對我們來說現在、現在、過去、現在並不可怕。真正好的事情是，我認為我們在第三季度進行了演示，我們將在全年進行演示，我認為我們將在明年再次演示，後年是，你知道，模型真的很有彈性，你知道，甚至，我的意思是，想想看，即使在我們所處的環境中，我們將在同一家商店的增長中成為兩半，我們也將提供10 個循環% EBITA 增長並高於此。我的意思是，每股盈餘和自由現金流並沒有讓人感覺那麼糟。想像一下，想像一下，從同一家商店的角度來看，在更好的環境中可以做些什麼。所以這不是我說的，我知道我沒有具體回答，但是，你知道，這些條件是，你知道，我們，我們，我們，我們感覺像什麼，我，我想我，我最後說我們無法確定宏觀，我們能做的始終是超越競爭對手。因此，我們對在這種環境下的能力感到滿意。我們對此感到滿意，在我們的工作中，在每個環境中都能做到這一點。但我們，是的，我們會的，但我們覺得我們，你知道，我們不是，就我們的交付能力而言，這並不是一個糟糕的環境。

Thank you. And the next question will be from MEREDITH Jensen from HS BC. Please go ahead.

謝謝。下一個問題將由 HS BC 的 MREDITH Jensen 提出。請繼續。

Yes, hello. I was wondering if you could speak a little bit about the occupancy and rate sort of offset. I know in the past you've spoken quite a bit about pushing rate and I'm wondering how that conversation with franchisees and, and hotels have gone shifted over the past few months. Thank you.

是的，你好。我想知道您是否可以談談入住率和費率的抵消情況。我知道過去您已經談過很多關於推動價格的問題，我想知道在過去的幾個月裡，與特許經營商和酒店的對話發生了怎樣的變化。謝謝。

It it hasn't really shifted. I mean, obviously inflation is, is down broadly use the US because it's our biggest market and we're here sitting here in the US. And inflation is not running 88 to 10%. But you know, it's still running for four plus against the target of two, which I think personally will be a long time coming just because of the underlying strength in the broader economy. And one thing we didn't talk about yet is the basic fiscal spending, you know, between chips and inflation reduction and infrastructure. You put all that stuff together, forget the private sector, there's a huge amount of public sector spending going on. And I think all of that sort of underpins growth in nonresidential fixed investment which drives a lot of demand in our business, which I think, you know, continues to give us you know, a de a decent amount of, of rate integrity. And so, our, you know, our expectation is you know, while that isn't, is, is moderating from the hypercharge levels that you saw generally of inflation across a lot of sectors. And you know, and we expect the same thing in ours, we still expect that there's a decent amount of pricing pressure. And so as we think about, but we have very sophisticated revenue management models that it's not that Christmas set up with its hand on the button deciding the rate of every room every night. Thankfully, but we, we have very sophisticated systems, but those systems and all of our science, data scientists here at Hilton still believe that given those conditions, you know, in most segments at most times you know, there, there is good pricing, integrity or the one area that I talked about where there's probably less by nature. If you think demand might be flat or going down a little bit as leisure normalizes, particularly on weekends. You, you know, there may, you know, there may, there may be a little bit less pressure there. But broadly, I, as I said, I think when we finish this year and next, I think leisure rates will be up. Not a lot, but I think le leisure rates will be up just because of the, you know, the, the underlying macro conditions. I don't know if that answered it, but the short answer is not, you know, nothing material that I that we see that's different in the last few months.

它並沒有真正改變。我的意思是，顯然美國的通膨率普遍下降，因為這是我們最大的市場，而我們就在美國。而且通貨膨脹率也沒有達到 88% 到 10%。但你知道，它的目標仍然是四個以上，而目標是兩個，我個人認為這將是一個很長的時間，只是因為更廣泛的經濟的潛在實力。我們還沒有討論的一件事是晶片、通膨降低和基礎設施之間的基本財政支出。你把所有這些東西放在一起，忘記私營部門，公共部門正在進行大量支出。我認為所有這些都支撐了非住宅固定投資的成長，這推動了我們業務的大量需求，我認為，你知道，這繼續為我們提供相當多的利率完整性。因此，我們的預期是，雖然事實並非如此，但許多行業普遍存在的通膨過高水準正在放緩。你知道，我們預期也會出現同樣的情況，我們仍然預期會有相當大的定價壓力。正如我們所想，我們有非常複雜的收入管理模式，這並不是聖誕節時用手按著按鈕來決定每個房間每晚的房價。值得慶幸的是，我們擁有非常複雜的系統，但這些系統以及希爾頓所有的科學、數據科學家仍然相信，考慮到這些條件，你知道，在大多數時候，在大多數細分市場，有很好的定價、誠信或我談到的一個領域，本質上可能較少。如果您認為隨著休閒正常化，尤其是週末，需求可能會持平或略有下降。你，你知道，那裡可能，你知道，那裡的壓力可能會小一些。但總的來說，正如我所說，我認為當我們今年和明年結束時，我認為休閒率將會上升。不是很多，但我認為休閒率將會上升，只是因為，你知道，潛在的宏觀條件。我不知道這是否能回答這個問題，但簡短的回答是，你知道，我在過去幾個月中看到的任何材料都沒有什麼不同。

It's super helpful. Thanks a lot.

這非常有幫助。多謝。

The next question is from Chad Beynon from Macquarie. Please go ahead.

下一個問題來自麥格理的查德貝農 (Chad Beynon)。請繼續。

Morning. Thanks for taking my question. Just a quick one. Continue on development, the guide for key mining or contract acquisition cost at the beginning of the year 250 to 300 that came down this quarter. Obviously, we only have two months left in the year. So you have a good sense of you know, where things are from a key money standpoint, Kevin. I know this is something you guys highlighted at the investor day. But is this more of just a delay to 25 or is this you know, just more progress in your goal to reduce key money as a percentage of, of nug. Thanks.

早晨。感謝您提出我的問題。只是快一點。繼續發展，年初關鍵採礦或合約收購成本指南本季下降了250至300。顯然，今年只剩下兩個月了。所以，從關鍵的金錢角度來看，你很清楚事情的進展情況，凱文。我知道這是你們在投資者日強調的事情。但這只是推遲到 25 美元，還是您知道，只是在減少關鍵資金百分比的目標上取得更大進展。謝謝。

Yeah, sure. I mean, look, I think key bunny in terms of percentage of nug and you know, the, the more strategic but no, no change in our approach. I mean, we still use key money on less than 10% of our deals. We use them when we have to when it gets competitive, but you know, 90 plus percent of the deals don't have anything associated with them. It's just a little bit of timing, right? We're getting closer to the end of the year. We have, we have more visibility into what, what we think is going to happen. A little bit of, you know, a couple projects that we have in the works that we think are more likely to happen next year. And if you think about, you know, last year was a bit heavier year because of some strategic projects this year will be a little bit lighter. I think going forward if you think about next year, probably somewhere in between last year and this year, but really no change in strategy.

是的，當然。我的意思是，看，我認為就努格的百分比而言關鍵兔子，你知道，更具戰略性，但我們的方法沒有改變。我的意思是，我們仍然在不到 10% 的交易中使用禮金。當競爭變得激烈時，我們會在必要時使用它們，但你知道，90％以上的交易與它們沒有任何關聯。這只是一點點時機，對吧？我們已經接近年底了。我們對我們認為將會發生的事情有更多的了解。你知道，我們正在進行一些項目，我們認為明年更有可能發生。如果你想想，你知道，去年是比較重的一年，因為今年的一些策略項目會比較輕。我認為，如果你考慮明年，可能是去年和今年之間的某個時間，但策略確實沒有改變。

Thank.

感謝。

You very much.

你非常喜歡。

The next question is from Patrick Scholes with truest securities. Please go ahead.

下一個問題來自帕特里克·斯科爾斯（Patrick Scholes），他提出了最真實的證券。請繼續。

Hi, good morning everyone.

嗨，大家早安。

Morning Kevin a question for you. What are your ro I targets for brand specifically developing them internally versus buying a brand and then related to that. You know, I mean, these recent, I call them tuck in brand acquisitions. You know, are these initially accreted to earnings or if not, you know, how, how long does it take for them to be a creative? Thank you.

早安，凱文問你一個問題。您對品牌的目標是什麼，專門在內部開發它們，而不是購買一個品牌，然後與之相關。你知道，我的意思是，最近的這些，我稱之為品牌收購。你知道，這些最初是計入收入的嗎？謝謝。

No, I think, look, it's, that's a lot there, Patrick and we've talked about this a lot. I think, you know, when you think about, we haven't done a lot of acquisitions. So if you think about broadly, you know, you alluded to sort of buy versus build, obviously, the ro I is extreme, you know, near infinite when we build these brands and you know, build them over time organically into, into multi billion dollar businesses. You know, it's, it's sort of you do a buy versus build analysis, but it almost always suggests, it almost always suggests build from a pure ro I perspective in the last couple of deals we've, we've done, they've been basically a creative out of the box, right? I think, you know, we, we didn't, we disclosed that on graduate. If you'll recall from the press release, press release, that's creative out of the box. So on both of these things, they were very specific to things we wanted to tuck in strategically, we're able to take advantage of the of a little bit of distress in the environment to buy them really well and, and they were recreative right right away, as I said.

不，我想，看，有很多，派崔克，我們已經討論過很多次了。我想，你知道，當你想一想時，我們並沒有進行很多收購。因此，如果你廣泛思考，你知道，你提到了購買與構建，顯然，當我們建立這些品牌時，我是極端的，你知道，接近無限，隨著時間的推移，將它們有機地構建成多種十億美元的企業。你知道，這有點像你進行購買與構建分析，但它幾乎總是建議，它幾乎總是建議從純粹的投資角度角度進行構建，在我們已經完成的最後幾筆交易中，他們基本上是一種開箱即用的創意，對吧？我想，你知道，我們沒有，我們在畢業時就透露了這一點。如果您還記得新聞稿，新聞稿，那是開箱即用的創意。因此，在這兩件事上，它們都非常具體地針對我們想要戰略性地融入的東西，我們能夠利用環境中的一點點困境來購買它們，而且它們非常具有娛樂性，對吧馬上，正如我所說。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

And ladies and gentlemen, this now concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Christmas at, for any additional or closing remarks.

女士們、先生們，我們的問答環節現在結束了。我想將會議推遲到聖誕節，以便發表補充或結束語。

Yeah, Chad, thanks and to everybody that joined. Thank you for the time. Obviously a lot going on in the world, but we're really happy with how the third quarter worked out. We feel good about the fourth and, and the full year and as we've talked about quite a bit today, feel good about the setup for 2025. We'll look forward to catching up with you after the year is out and be a little bit more specific on, on 2025 at that at that point. And I hope everybody has a good end of the year and great holiday season when you get to it. It's funny to hear myself say that, but it's that time of year. Anyway, thanks again for the time today.

是的，查德，感謝所有加入的人。謝謝你的時間。顯然世界上發生了很多事情，但我們對第三季的表現非常滿意。我們對第四年和全年感覺良好，正如我們今天談論的很多，對 2025 年的設置感覺良好。我希望每個人都能度過一個美好的年末和美好的假期。聽到自己這麼說很有趣，但現在是一年中的這個時候。不管怎樣，再次感謝您今天抽出時間。

And thank you, sir. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

謝謝您，先生。會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。