希爾頓酒店 (HLT) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Hilton third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

早安，歡迎參加希爾頓 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Please note this event is being recorded.

請注意此事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Jill Chapman, Senior Vice President, Head of Development Operations and Investor Relations.

我現在將會議交給高級副總裁兼開發營運和投資者關係主管吉爾·查普曼 (Jill Chapman)。

You may begin.

你可以開始了。

Thank you, Chad.

謝謝你，查德。

Welcome to Hilton's third-quarter 2024 earnings call.

歡迎參加希爾頓 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

Before we begin, we would like to remind you that our discussions this morning will include forward-looking statements.

在開始之前，我們想提醒您，我們今天上午的討論將包括前瞻性陳述。

Actual results could differ materially from those indicated in the forward-looking statements, and forward-looking statements made today speak only to our expectations as of today.

實際結果可能與前瞻性聲明中所示的結果有重大差異，今天發表的前瞻性聲明僅代表我們截至目前為止的預期。

We undertake no obligation to update or revise these statements.

我們不承擔更新或修改這些聲明的義務。

For a discussion of some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ, please see the Risk Factors section of our most recently filed Form 10-K.

有關可能導致實際結果不同的一些因素的討論，請參閱我們最近提交的表格 10-K 的風險因素部分。

In addition, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures on this call.

此外，我們將在本次電話會議上提及某些非公認會計準則財務指標。

You can find reconciliations of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures discussed in today's call in our earnings press release and on our website at ir.hilton.com.

您可以在我們的收益新聞稿和我們的網站 ir.hilton.com 上找到今天電話會議中討論的非 GAAP 與 GAAP 財務指標的調整表。

This morning, Chris Nassetta, our President and Chief Executive Officer, will provide an overview of the current operating environment and the company's outlook.

今天早上，我們的總裁兼執行長 Chris Nassetta 將概述當前的營運環境和公司的前景。

Kevin Jacobs, our Chief Financial Officer and President, Global Development, will then review our third quarter and discuss our expectations for the year.

我們的財務長兼全球發展總裁 Kevin Jacobs 隨後將回顧我們的第三季並討論我們對今年的預期。

Following their remarks, we'll be happy to take your questions.

在他們的發言之後，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

With that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Chris.

至此，我很高興將電話轉給克里斯。

Thank you, Jill.

謝謝你，吉爾。

Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us today.

大家早安，感謝您今天加入我們。

Our third quarter results continue to demonstrate the strength of our business model as strong net unit growth helped drive solid bottom line performance.

我們第三季的業績繼續證明了我們業務模式的優勢，因為強勁的淨單位成長有助於推動穩健的獲利業績。

Adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS both exceeded the high end of our guidance despite softer than expected RevPAR performance.

儘管 RevPAR 表現低於預期，但調整後 EBITDA 和調整後 EPS 都超出了我們指導的上限。

We opened more hotel rooms than any other quarter in the history of our company and surpassed 8,000 hotels in our system.

我們開設的酒店客房數量比公司歷史上任何其他季度都多，我們系統中的酒店數量已超過 8,000 家。

We also reached a milestone 200 million Hilton Honors members in the quarter as our award-winning program, industry-leading brands and exceptional service continued to increase guest loyalty.

我們屢獲殊榮的計劃、行業領先的品牌和卓越的服務不斷提高賓客忠誠度，本季希爾頓榮譽客會會員數量也達到了 2 億的里程碑。

Turning to results.

轉向結果。

Third quarter system-wide RevPAR increased 1.4% year over year, below our guidance range due to slower ramp in September following Labor Day, weather impacts, unfavorable calendar shifts and ongoing labor disputes in the US.

第三季全系統 RevPAR 年成長 1.4%，低於我們的指導範圍，原因是勞動節後 9 月的成長放緩、天氣影響、不利的日曆變化以及美國持續的勞資糾紛。

Business transient RevPAR increased 2% with growth across both large corporates and small and medium-sized businesses.

隨著大型企業和中小型企業的成長，業務瞬間每間可用收入 (RevPAR) 成長了 2%。

Leisure trends continue to normalize with RevPAR declining modestly from post-pandemic peaks.

休閒趨勢持續正常化，每間可用房收入較疫情後最高峰小幅下降。

Group RevPAR rose more than 5% year over year, led by strong demand for both corporate and social meetings and events.

在企業和社交會議及活動的強勁需求帶動下，集團每間可用客房收入年增超過 5%。

For the full year, group position is up 10% with group position in '25 and '26 up low double digits to mid-teens.

全年來看，集團排名上升了 10%，其中 25 年和 26 年的集團排名上升了兩位數至中位數。

Adjusting for holiday and calendar shifts, we estimate system-wide RevPAR grew at 2.3% in the quarter, just slightly softer than the second quarter and with all segments increasing.

根據假期和日曆變化進行調整後，我們估計本季全系統 RevPAR 成長 2.3%，僅略低於第二季度，且所有細分市場均有所成長。

On an adjusted basis, leisure transient RevPAR increased nearly 2% driven largely by solid trends across Continental Europe.

在調整後的基礎上，休閒短暫的 RevPAR 成長了近 2%，這主要是由歐洲大陸的穩定趨勢所推動的。

In the fourth quarter, we expect RevPAR growth largely in line with third quarter driven by strong group bookings, continued business transient recovery, and favorable calendar shifts, partially offset by the election and ongoing labor disputes in the US.

在第四季度，我們預計每間客房收入的成長與第三季度基本一致，這是由強勁的團體預訂、持續的業務短暫復甦和有利的日曆變化推動的，但部分被美國大選和持續的勞資糾紛所抵消。

Weekday pays for October is tracking up more than 300 basis points versus September's weekday pays, driven by solid business transient performance and group's strength.

在穩健的業務短暫表現和集團實力的推動下，10 月份的工作日薪酬比 9 月份的工作日薪酬上漲了 300 個基點以上。

Company meetings and convention business continue to grow as a percentage of mix driving longer booking windows.

公司會議和會議業務在混合業務中所佔的比例持續成長，從而推動了更長的預訂窗口。

Given year to date performance and fourth quarter expectations, we expect forecast full-year RevPAR growth of 2% to 2.5% and full year adjusted EBITDA growth of approximately 10%, demonstrating the continued resiliency of our business model.

考慮到今年迄今的業績和第四季度的預期，我們預計全年 RevPAR 將增長 2% 至 2.5%，全年調整後 EBITDA 增長約 10%，這表明我們業務模式的持續彈性。

Turning to development.

轉向發展。

In the quarter, we opened a record 531 hotels totaling more than 36,000 rooms and achieved the highest net unit growth in our history at 7.8%.

本季度，我們開設了創紀錄的 531 家酒店，客房總數超過 36,000 間，並實現了歷史上最高的淨單位增長率 7.8%。

We marked several milestones in the quarter, including the opening of our 8,000 hotel worldwide, our 900th hotel in Asia Pacific and our 900th hotel in EMEA.

我們在本季度實現了多個里程碑，包括在全球開設 8,000 家酒店、在亞太地區開設第 900 家酒店以及在歐洲、中東和非洲地區開設第 900 家酒店。

Home2 Suites, which has more than doubled in supply in the last five years, opened its 700th hotel and continues to have the largest new development pipeline in the industry.

Home2 Suites 的供應量在過去五年中增加了一倍以上，開設了第 700 家酒店，並繼續擁有業內最大的新開發項目。

We continue to expand our lifestyle portfolio, opening a number of new hotels in the quarter, including the Graduate Auburn and Graduate Princeton, the first two openings under our newly acquired Graduate brand.

我們繼續擴大我們的生活方式組合，在本季度開設了許多新酒店，包括奧本畢業生酒店和普林斯頓畢業生酒店，這是我們新收購的畢業生品牌下開設的前兩家酒店。

We also introduced several brands in new markets around the world, including Spark in Canada, Embassy Suites in the UAE, Canopy in Japan, and Hampton in Switzerland, demonstrating the strong value of our industry-leading brands in delivering for owners.

我們也在全球新市場推出了多個品牌，包括加拿大的 Spark、阿聯酋的 Embassy Suites、日本的 Canopy 和瑞士的 Hampton，展示了我們行業領先品牌為業主提供的強大價值。

We welcomed nearly 400 luxury properties through our exclusive agreement with Small Luxury Hotels of the World.

透過與世界小型豪華酒店的獨家協議，我們迎來了近 400 家豪華酒店。

These properties spanning 70 different countries provide Honors members even more opportunities to book unique luxury experiences and sought-after destinations across the globe.

這些飯店遍佈 70 個不同的國家/地區，為榮譽會員提供更多機會預訂獨特的奢華體驗和全球熱門目的地。

Including SLH and our existing luxury properties, we now have one of the largest luxury hotel portfolios in the industry.

包括 SLH 和我們現有的豪華酒店，我們現在擁有業內最大的豪華酒店組合之一。

Conversions accounted for 60% of openings in the quarter driven by the addition of SLH properties and continued momentum from Spark.

由於 SLH 物業的增加和 Spark 的持續成長勢頭，轉換佔本季空缺職位的 60%。

We opened more than 20 Spark hotels in the quarter and now have over 6,000 Spark rooms in supply just a year after the brand opened its first property.

我們在本季開設了 20 多家 Spark 飯店，在品牌開設第一家飯店僅一年後，目前已供應超過 6,000 間 Spark 客房。

Spark now has opened hotels in the US and the UK and Canada.

Spark 目前已在美國、英國和加拿大開設飯店。

And we recently announced plans to open hotels in Germany and Austria before the end of the year.

我們最近宣布計劃在年底前在德國和奧地利開設酒店。

The brand's pipeline is three times larger than its existing supply and we expect continued launches in international markets to further boost Spark's trajectory, positioning us well for future growth in the premium economy space.

該品牌的產品線是其現有供應量的三倍，我們預計國際市場上的持續推出將進一步推動 Spark 的發展軌跡，為我們在高端經濟領域的未來成長做好準備。

In the quarter, we signed 28,000 rooms expanding our pipeline to more than 492,000 rooms which is up 8% year over year.

本季度，我們簽署了 28,000 間客房，將待售客房數量擴大到超過 492,000 間，年增 8%。

Excluding partnerships, our pipeline also increased from the second quarter.

不包括合作夥伴，我們的管道也比第二季度增加。

We signed three luxury deals in Greece, Japan and the UAE and 35 lifestyle properties including a record 15 Curios.

我們在希臘、日本和阿聯酋簽署了三筆豪華飯店交易，以及 35 處生活方式房產，其中包括創紀錄的 15 處 Curios 房產。

Conversions accounted for more than 30% of signings in the quarter driven by the strength of Spark and the continued momentum across Curio, Tapestry and DoubleTree.

在 Spark 的實力以及 Curio、Tapestry 和 DoubleTree 的持續成長動能的推動下，本季的轉換率超過了 30%。

Construction starts remain strong, up 21% excluding acquisitions and partnerships.

開工建設依然強勁，不包括收購和合作關係，成長了 21%。

We remain on track to exceed prior levels of starts by year end with meaningful growth across both the US and international markets.

我們仍有望在年底前超越先前的開工水平，並在美國和國際市場實現顯著成長。

Approximately half of our pipeline is under construction, and we continue to have more rooms under construction than any other hotel company, accounting for more than 20% of industry share and nearly four times our existing share of supply.

我們大約一半的在建客房正在建設中，而且我們的在建客房數量繼續超過任何其他酒店公司，佔行業份額超過 20%，幾乎是我們現有供應份額的四倍。

As a result of our strong pipeline and under construction activity, we continue to expect net unit growth of 7% to 7.5% for the full year and 6% to 7% for 2025.

由於我們強勁的管道和在建活動，我們繼續預期全年淨單位成長率為 7% 至 7.5%，2025 年淨單位成長率為 6% 至 7%。

We continue to be recognized for our culture and award-winning brands.

我們的文化和屢獲殊榮的品牌繼續獲得認可。

During the quarter, we were named the top Hospitality Workplace in Latin America and Asia by Great Place to Work, adding to the more than 560 Great Place to Work awards and nearly 60 number one wins around the world since 2016.

本季度，我們被《最佳工作場所》評為拉丁美洲和亞洲最佳酒店工作場所，自2016 年以來，我們已獲得超過560 個最佳工作場所獎項，並在全球範圍內獲得了近60 個第一名。

We're also proud to be named the number two workplace on the 2024 People Magazine, Companies that Care [less] and recently recognizes time's best hotel brand of 2024.

我們也很榮幸被評為 2024 年《人物》雜誌「關心的公司」中排名第二的工作場所，並且最近還被評為《時代》雜誌 2024 年最佳酒店品牌。

Overall, we're very pleased with our performance in the quarter and the milestones we've achieved.

總的來說，我們對本季的表現和所實現的里程碑感到非常滿意。

Our powerful network of brands continue to be an engine of opportunity for our guests, our owners, and our team members and we're excited about our growth into the future.

我們強大的品牌網絡仍然是我們的客人、業主和團隊成員的機會引擎，我們對未來的發展感到興奮。

Now I'm going to turn the call over to Kevin for a few more details on our results for the quarter and our expectations for the full year.

現在我將把電話轉給凱文，以了解有關我們本季業績和全年預期的更多詳細資訊。

Thanks, Chris, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝克里斯，大家早安。

During the quarter, system-wide RevPAR grew 1.4% versus the prior year on a comparable and currency neutral basis.

在可比較和貨幣中性的基礎上，本季全系統的 RevPAR 與前一年相比成長了 1.4%。

Growth was largely driven by strong international performance and continued recovery in group.

成長主要得益於強勁的國際業績和集團的持續復甦。

Adjusted EBITDA was $904 million in the third quarter, up 8% year over year and exceeding the high end of our guidance range.

第三季調整後 EBITDA 為 9.04 億美元，年成長 8%，超出了我們指引範圍的上限。

Outperformance was driven by better-than-expected non-RevPAR fee growth, lower corporate expense, and some timing items.

業績優於預期是由好於預期的非 RevPAR 費用成長、較低的企業費用以及一些時間安排項目推動的。

Management franchise fees grew 8% year over year.

管理特許經營費年增 8%。

For the quarter, diluted earnings per share adjusted for special items was a $1.92.

本季度，經特殊項目調整後的攤薄每股收益為 1.92 美元。

Turning to our regional performance.

轉向我們的區域表現。

Third quarter comparable US RevPAR was up 1% driven by strong group performance.

在強勁的集團業績推動下，第三季美國可比 RevPAR 成長了 1%。

In the Americas outside of the US, third quarter RevPAR increased 4% year over year driven by strong results in urban markets, particularly in Mexico.

在美國以外的美洲地區，由於城市市場（尤其是墨西哥）的強勁業績，第三季每間可用房屋收入年增 4%。

In Europe, RevPAR grew 7% year over year driven by key summer events including the Olympics in France and the European soccer championships in Germany.

在歐洲，受法國奧運會和德國歐洲足球錦標賽等重要夏季賽事的推動，每間可用客房收入年增 7%。

In the Middle East and Africa region, RevPAR increased 3% year over year led by occupancy gains in Qatar and Riyadh.

在中東和非洲地區，由於卡達和利雅德的入住率成長，每間可用客房收入較去年同期成長 3%。

In the Asia Pacific region, third quarter RevPAR was down 3% year over year.

在亞太地區，第三季每間可用房收入年減 3%。

RevPAR in APAC ex-China increased 4% led by strong performance in India.

由於印度的強勁表現，亞太地區（中國除外）的每間可用客房收入成長了 4%。

However, China RevPAR declined 9% in the quarter with difficult year over year domestic travel comparisons, disruptions due to typhoons and limited international inbound travel negatively affecting results.

然而，本季中國每間可出租客房收入下降了 9%，國內旅遊較去年同期比較困難，颱風造成的干擾以及有限的國際入境旅遊對業績產生了負面影響。

Turning to development, we ended the quarter with approximately 492,000 rooms in our pipeline, up 8% year over year with approximately 60% of those rooms located outside of the US and nearly half under construction.

談到開發，本季末，我們在建客房約 492,000 間，年增 8%，其中約 60% 的客房位於美國境外，近一半正在興建中。

For the full year, we expect net unit growth of 7% to 7.5%.

我們預計全年淨單位成長率為 7% 至 7.5%。

Moving to guidance.

轉向指導。

For the fourth quarter, we expect system-wide RevPAR growth of 1% to 2% year over year.

對於第四季度，我們預計全系統 RevPAR 將年增 1% 至 2%。

We expect adjusted EBITDA of between $804 million and $834 million and diluted EPS adjusted for special items to be between $1.57 and $1.67. For full year 2024, we expect RevPAR growth of 2% to 2.5%.

我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 為 8.04 億美元至 8.34 億美元，特殊項目調整後的稀釋每股收益為 1.57 美元至 1.67 美元。 2024 年全年，我們預計 RevPAR 將成長 2% 至 2.5%。

We forecast adjusted EBITDA of between $3.375 billion and $3.405 billion.

我們預計調整後 EBITDA 為 33.75 億美元至 34.05 億美元之間。

We forecast diluted EPS adjusted for special items of between $6.93 and $7.03. Please note that our guidance ranges do not incorporate future share repurchases.

我們預計特殊項目調整後的攤薄每股收益在 6.93 美元至 7.03 美元之間。請注意，我們的指導範圍不包括未來的股票回購。

Moving on to capital return.

轉向資本回報。

We paid a cash dividend of $0.15 per share during the third quarter for a total of $37 million.

第三季我們支付了每股 0.15 美元的現金股息，總計 3,700 萬美元。

Our Board also authorized a quarterly dividend of $0.15 per share in the fourth quarter.

我們的董事會也授權在第四季派發每股 0.15 美元的季度股息。

Year to date, we have returned more than $2.4 billion to shareholders in the form of buybacks and dividends.

今年迄今為止，我們已以回購和股利的形式向股東返還超過 24 億美元。

And for the full year, we expect to return approximately $3 billion.

我們預計全年回報約 30 億美元。

Further details on our third quarter results can be found in the earnings release we issued earlier this morning.

有關我們第三季業績的更多詳細信息，請參閱我們今天早上發布的收益報告。

This completes our prepared remarks.

我們準備好的演講到此結束。

We would now like to open the line for any questions you may have.

我們現在願意為您解答任何問題。

We would like to speak with as many of you as possible.

我們希望與盡可能多的人交談。

So we ask that you limit yourself to one question.

因此，我們要求您只回答一個問題。

Chad, can we have our first question?

查德，我們可以問第一個問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Joe Greff, JP Morgan.

（操作員指示）Joe Greff，摩根大通。

Back in March at your Investor Day, which feels like a long time ago for a lot of different reasons, you gave the 2025 EBITDA target of $3.69 billion.

早在 3 月的投資者日上，由於各種不同的原因，感覺像是很久以前的事了，您給出的 2025 年 EBITDA 目標為 36.9 億美元。

When you look at that number and the drivers getting there, what's different about 2025 as you sit here today versus this past March?

當你看到這個數字和到達那裡的司機時，你今天坐在這裡的 2025 年與去年 3 月有什麼不同？

I guess in other words, if you and the industry are in this 1% to 2% RevPAR growth range for next year, do you still look at that level of EBITDA is achievable or if you think RevPAR to be somewhat higher than 1% to 2% to get there?

我想換句話說，如果您和整個行業明年的 RevPAR 成長範圍為 1% 至 2%，您是否仍然認為 EBITDA 水平是可以實現的，或者如果您認為 RevPAR 略高於 1% 2%才能到達那裡？

Yeah, that's a good question.

是的，這是一個好問題。

Obviously, it's a tad early to be getting into 2025 guidance.

顯然，現在進入 2025 年指導還為時過早。

As you know, we would do -- typically do that at the end of when we report year end at the beginning of next year.

如您所知，我們通常會在明年初報告年末時這樣做。

But I will give you a high-level sense of it.

但我會給你一個高層次的感覺。

I mean we are in the sort of the early-ish stages of budget season.

我的意思是，我們正處於預算季節的早期階段。

So lots of work to do.

有很多工作要做。

But I would say I have a reasonably like most things, I have a reasonably strong view of where I think things will end up.

但我想說，我對大多數事情都有相當的看法，我對事情的結局有相當強烈的看法。

And so I'd start with sort of like, how do we feel broadly about 2025?

所以我先問，我們對 2025 年的整體感受如何？

And I would say we feel pretty good about it.

我想說我們對此感覺很好。

I've been doing this for longer than I'm going to admit, maybe close to 40 years.

我從事這項工作的時間比我承認的要長，也許接近 40 年。

I've rarely seen sort of a stronger consensus view on the macro particularly here in the US.

我很少看到對宏觀經濟有更強烈的共識，尤其是在美國。

But I think broadly, and that macro view is that sort of I think the word resiliency I used to describe our business, I think that word is getting used a lot to describe the economy.

但我認為，宏觀觀點是我用來描述我們業務的「彈性」這個詞，我認為這個詞被廣泛用來描述經濟。

And I think there is a very broad consensus view that the economy will continue to be, it obviously has been slowing.

我認為，人們普遍認為經濟將繼續放緩，而且顯然一直在放緩。

Because that's what the Fed has been trying to do here in the US and to a degree, in other parts of the world, but focus on the US.

因為這就是聯準會在美國以及某種程度上在世界其他地區一直試圖做的事情，但重點是美國。

But it remains strong, resilient and showing positive growth.

但它仍然強勁、有彈性並顯示出積極的成長。

And I think our -- the consensus view is that next year will be more of that, that we'll have positive economic growth.

我認為我們的共識是，明年將會更多，我們將實現積極的經濟成長。

The odds of a recession, at this point, I think are quite low.

我認為目前經濟衰退的可能性相當低。

If you look again at consensus view, I'm not an economist but that's the view.

如果你再看共識觀點，我不是經濟學家，但這就是觀點。

And I talked to a lot of people, and I would generally agree with the view.

我和很多人交談過，我基本上都同意這個觀點。

So I think as we think about that as a backdrop, thinking about 2025 what's going to be the macro which can drive a bunch of our business obviously, we feel pretty good about it.

因此，我認為，當我們以此為背景進行思考時，考慮到 2025 年將有哪些宏觀因素可以明顯地推動我們的一系列業務，我們對此感覺非常好。

I think when you think about how that's going to add up and I'll sort of give you the punchline and then I'll break it down a little bit by regions and segments.

我想，當你想到這將如何加起來時，我會給你一些要點，然後我會按地區和細分市場對其進行一些細分。

I mean I think the punchline is my best sense again early in our budget season is that next year is going to look a lot like this year on -- from a same-store growth point of view.

我的意思是，我認為在我們的預算季節初期，我的最佳感覺是，從同店成長的角度來看，明年將與今年非常相似。

Now I think we'll get there a little bit differently.

現在我想我們會以不同的方式到達那裡。

But I would say at this point, I think next year, we'll end up when we're sitting here a year from now, we'll be saying it felt a lot like 2024.

但我現在想說的是，我想明年，當一年後我們坐在這裡時，我們會說感覺很像 2024 年。

If you break that down regionally, I think it, again, at a high level where I think it ends up is the US ends up pretty similar to what we're experiencing this year.

如果你按地區來細分，我認為在高水準上，美國的最終結果與我們今年所經歷的情況非常相似。

I think if you look at Asia Pacific, I think it will be better in part because comps in China are going to get easier and there's a lot of stimulus occurring there.

我認為如果你看看亞太地區，我認為情況會更好，部分原因是中國的競爭將變得更加容易，而且那裡出現了許多刺激措施。

So I do think China will have a better year and China, I mean APAC ex-China remains quite strong as Kevin suggested in his comments and we don't see a lot that's going to disrupt that.

因此，我確實認為中國將會有一個更好的一年，我的意思是，正如凱文在他的評論中所暗示的那樣，除中國之外的亞太地區中國仍然相當強大，我們沒有看到太多因素會破壞這一點。

And we have some comp benefits particularly in the third quarter, in weather, in typhoons in Japan and China that will be a benefit.

我們有一些比較優勢，特別是在第三季度，在天氣方面，在日本和中國的颱風中，這將是一個優勢。

So I think APAC will be better.

所以我認為亞太地區會更好。

I think EMEA will be a little bit less good than it's been.

我認為歐洲、中東和非洲地區的表現將比以前有所下降。

I don't -- I think it's still going to be very good to be clear.

我不——我認為澄清這一點仍然是非常好的。

My guess is it will probably still lead the pack in RevPAR growth in terms of our mega regions around the world.

我的猜測是，就全球各大區域而言，它可能仍將在 RevPAR 成長方面處於領先地位。

So it's not that I see a problem there, but I do think it'll be somewhat less growth than we saw this year.

因此，我並不是認為那裡有問題，但我確實認為成長速度會比今年下降。

And when you blend it all together, US, about the same, APAC, a little bit better, EMEA. may be a little bit worse.

當你把它們混合在一起時，美國、亞太地區大致相同、歐洲、中東和非洲稍好一些。可能會差一點。

I think you end up kind of it about where you are.

我想你最終會對自己所處的位置有所了解。

If you break it down by segments, again, I'm -- I mean I'm homogenizing a lot of stuff together, but I think it's again a similar story maybe with a little bit of nuance.

如果你把它分成幾個部分，那麼，我——我的意思是我將很多東西同質化在一起，但我認為這又是一個類似的故事，可能有一點細微差別。

I think on the group side, you're going to continue to see really good strength.

我認為在團體方面，你將繼續看到真正強大的實力。

I said we're up in the low to mid-teens in terms of our position going into next year.

我說過，就明年的排名而言，我們的排名已經上升到了十幾歲左右。

So we feel really good.

所以我們感覺非常好。

We'll cross over with more than half of the business on the books.

我們將跨越帳面上一半以上的業務。

And booking windows are extending because there's just not enough supply relative to the demand.

而且預訂窗口正在延長，因為相對於需求而言，供應不足。

So I think you're going to see both demand growth and pricing growth in the group segment.

因此，我認為您將看到集團細分市場的需求成長和價格成長。

I think in business transient, which will be, I think in second place, in terms of the pecking order of growth, again, broadly, I think you're going to continue to see business transient grind up.

我認為在業務瞬態方面，我認為就成長的優先順序而言，這將排在第二位，再次廣泛地說，我認為您將繼續看到業務瞬態的發展。

I do think next year, we will likely surpass prior peaks of 2019 in terms of demand levels.

我確實認為明年的需求水準可能會超過 2019 年的高峰。

So you will see increases in demand.

所以你會看到需求的增加。

All the anecdotal and hard evidence that we're getting from most of our big accounts and our SMB business suggests that and you will continue to have good pricing power there.

我們從大多數大客戶和中小企業業務中獲得的所有軼事和確鑿證據表明，您將繼續擁有良好的定價能力。

And then leisure, I think again, a little bit like this year, you're going to continue to see normalization.

然後休閒，我再次認為，有點像今年，你會繼續看到正常化。

What does that mean?

這意味著什麼？

That means I think demand is sort of flat to maybe even down a little bit.

這意味著我認為需求基本上持平，甚至可能下降。

But again, because like in all segments of life, particularly here in the US, inflation is down but still stubbornly a bit high.

但同樣，因為就像生活的各個方面一樣，特別是在美國，通貨膨脹雖然有所下降，但仍然居高不下。

I do believe that we'll continue to have very solid pricing power.

我確實相信我們將繼續擁有非常穩固的定價能力。

So when you blend it all out, I think again, it will look a lot like this year.

所以，當你把這一切融合在一起時，我再次想，它看起來會很像今年。

I think it will, depending on the segment, be balanced as I just described.

我認為，正如我剛才所描述的那樣，根據細分市場的不同，它會保持平衡。

But if you blend the whole world together, it'll be a nice blend of both demand and pricing.

但如果你將整個世界融合在一起，這將是需求和定價的完美融合。

The way all that sort of amalgam -- all of what I just said amalgamates together.

所有這些混合體的方式——我剛才所說的所有內容都混合在一起。

And listen, we spent a lot of time on this.

聽著，我們在這方面花了很多時間。

We just did our, as we always do every quarter, our quarterly business review with the whole world and everybody's in budget season and it's got their head down.

正如我們每個季度都會做的那樣，我們剛剛對全世界進行了季度業務審查，每個人都處於預算季節，而且他們都低著頭。

But I think the overarching sort of atmospherics with our teams around the world is consistent with what I just said, Feeling pretty good.

但我認為我們世界各地團隊的整體氛圍與我剛才所說的一致，感覺非常好。

I mean, listen, we'd rather have higher RevPAR growth always, but we feel that that's pretty solid.

我的意思是，聽著，我們寧願始終保持更高的 RevPAR 成長，但我們認為這是相當可靠的。

And the last thing I'd say to finish my filibuster, thank you for the question, Joe, because I'm answering a bunch, we obviously feel really good about unit growth.

為了結束我的阻撓，我要說的最後一句話是，謝謝你的問題，喬，因為我正在回答很多問題，我們顯然對單位增長感到非常滿意。

We've given -- so we have given some guidance there.

我們已經給了一些指導。

We've got a lot of momentum in that area.

我們在該領域擁有很大的動力。

I'm sure we'll have more questions, but we feel very good about that.

我確信我們還會有更多問題，但我們對此感覺很好。

And so the way I would think about it is we're always trying to deliver algorithm growth back to your initial question, which is I always -- I say here X plus Y needs equal Z. So same-store and unit growth need to add up.

所以我的想法是，我們總是試著將演算法成長帶回你最初的問題，這就是我總是——我在這裡說 X 加 Y 需要等於 Z。 所以同店和單位成長需要加起來。

And I am very confident that algorithm will be alive and well for next -- for 2025.

我非常有信心，演算法將在接下來的 2025 年繼續保持良好的狀態。

Shaun Kelley, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

肖恩凱利，美銀美林。

Chris, just maybe to hit on the development side given you just talked a lot about kind of what's going on, on the kind of RevPAR and macro side.

克里斯，也許只是想談談開發方面，因為您剛剛談論了很多正在發生的事情，在 RevPAR 和宏觀方面。

Can you just walk us through, obviously we now have the initial expectation of 6% to 7% for next year.

您能否為我們介紹一下，顯然我們現在對明年的初步預期是 6% 到 7%。

A little bit more about what your kind of underlying assumption is there and sort of how it might factor in, possibilities of like what could -- maybe just walk us through what could be a little bit better if the development environment were to improve?

多一點關於你的基本假設是什麼，以及它可能如何影響，例如可能會發生什麼的可能性——也許只是引導我們了解如果開發環境得到改善，什麼可能會更好一點？

Obviously, your starts remain really compelling and what could be a little bit worse?

顯然，你的開始仍然非常引人注目，還有什麼會更糟？

Just what would be the kind of range or bound of outcomes there?

結果的範圍或界線到底是什麼？

Thank you.

謝謝。

And I'll offer some comments and Kevin runs development.

我將提供一些評論，凱文負責開發。

So I should cede to him too.

所以我也應該讓給他。

I mean I do think we feel obviously really good about 6% to 7%.

我的意思是，我確實認為我們對 6% 到 7% 的感覺顯然非常好。

We have more visibility into that than obviously the macro.

顯然，我們對這一點的了解比對宏觀的了解更多。

We have a view on macro that's based as I described on consensus, but we have good visibility.

我們對宏觀的看法是基於我所描述的共識，但我們有很好的可見度。

We got a lot of stuff under construction, we have a lot of momentum on conversion.

我們有很多東西正在建設中，我們在轉換方面有很大的動力。

So the way I would say is just a couple of points of clarification.

所以我想說的只是澄清幾點。

One, the 6% to 7% is organic.

第一，6%到7%是有機的。

We -- that's not sort of incorporating a partnerships in -- which is why this year's numbers are coming in hotter than that at 7% to 7.5%.

我們——這並不是一種合作關係——這就是為什麼今年的數字比去年更高，達到 7% 到 7.5%。

I would say implied in it is, about a third of it would be conversions.

我想說的是，其中大約三分之一是轉換。

So that's about where we'll end up this year.

這就是我們今年的結局。

By the way, if you take out the partnerships, we'll end up at about a third.

順便說一句，如果你去掉合作關係，我們最終會得到大約三分之一。

If you add the partnerships in, we're about 50%.

如果算上合作夥伴，我們大約佔 50%。

So but we don't, again expect to repeat that.

所以，但我們不希望再次重複這一點。

And that's how we get to it.

這就是我們如何做到這一點的。

Again, it's a super granular analysis.

同樣，這是一個超精細的分析。

Other than in the year, for the year conversions, everything is identified, meaning it's in the pipeline, it's happening and so it's really delivering on that one.

除了今年之外，對於今年的轉換，一切都已確定，這意味著它正在醞釀中，正在發生，因此它確實正在實現這一目標。

And if it's going to deliver next year, it's pretty much got to be under construction right now or in the next, there may be a brand or two in a place or two around the world, including the US where you could still start something maybe with a LivSmart right now or in the next 30 days and sneak it in next year, but it gets awfully hard.

如果它要明年交付，它幾乎必須現在或明年就在建設中，世界上的一兩個地方可能會有一兩個品牌，包括美國，你仍然可以在那裡開始做一些事情現在或在接下來的30天內使用LivSmart，並在明年偷偷地使用它，但這變得非常困難。

So in terms of the new build stuff, we have a good sense of that.

因此，就新建的內容而言，我們對此有很好的認識。

Again, conversions, we have a good sense of a lot of those because like Spark and other, they're in the pipeline.

再說一遍，我們對很多轉換都有很好的了解，因為像 Spark 和其他轉換一樣，它們正在醞釀中。

So and then there's a segment of those conversions that are unidentified.

因此，有一部分轉化是無法辨識的。

We have a really good track record on delivering that.

我們在實現這一目標方面擁有非常良好的記錄。

Obviously, those numbers, a third have been moving up.

顯然，這些數字，三分之一一直在上升。

We've done more than that historically, but they've moved up from the low 20s to about a third and we're taking a very disproportionate share of conversion opportunities around the world.

從歷史上看，我們所做的事情比這個多，但他們已經從 20 左右上升到了大約三分之一，而且我們在全球範圍內佔據了不成比例的轉換機會份額。

And that's because our brands are performing really, really well and we don't see any risk of that.

這是因為我們的品牌表現非常非常好，我們沒有看到任何風險。

So what could make it like to get the higher or lower end of the range?

那麼怎樣才能獲得該範圍的較高或較低端呢？

I think sort of intellectually, the right way to say it is, maybe it has to be ultimately in the conversion space because of what I just said.

我認為從理智上來說，正確的說法是，也許由於我剛才所說的，它最終必須在轉換空間中。

I mean maybe there's a few more that sneaked under construction at the end of this year.

我的意思是，今年年底可能還會有更多的項目正在建設中。

But I don't think that's going to move the needle a whole heck of a lot.

但我認為這不會帶來太大的改變。

I think it's that we're more than a third in the conversions.

我認為我們的轉換率超過了三分之一。

I think that's possible.

我認為這是可能的。

I'm not saying I think that'll happen, but I think that's possible.

我並不是說我認為這會發生，但我認為這是可能的。

We give a range of 6% to 7% for a reason that there's still a heck of a lot of work that Kevin and our development teams around the world have to do.

我們給出的範圍是 6% 到 7%，因為 Kevin 和我們在世界各地的開發團隊還有大量工作要做。

I hope we make it look a little bit easy.

我希望我們讓它看起來有點簡單。

It's not.

它不是。

But we feel really good about that range.

但我們對這個範圍感覺非常好。

And so again [jacked] intellectually to do better or worse relative to the midpoint of that range is sort of conversions more or less.

因此，再次在智力上[劫持]相對於該範圍的中點做得更好或更差或多或少是一種轉換。

Stephen Grambling, Morgan Stanley.

史蒂芬‧格蘭布林，摩根士丹利。

I guess maybe a follow up on the NUG commentary.

我想也許是 NUG 評論的後續。

I guess how does the pipeline of what's in construction just from a fee per room mix compare to the existing base?

我想，與現有基地相比，僅按每間房間收費的方式正在建造的項目如何？

And have you seen any change in the development as rates have started to come down here and letting us loosened?

隨著利率開始下降並讓我們放鬆，您是否看到了發展的任何變化？

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks, Steve.

謝謝，史蒂夫。

I'll take the second part first because it's a little bit easier.

我將首先學習第二部分，因為它更容易一些。

I think you are starting to see things free up a little bit in terms of the development environment as rates haven't come dramatically down, but they've come down a little bit and I think people can see a path to a better day on the capital front and we are actually starting to -- there's a lot more conversations around change of ownerships which I think supports what Chris was just saying about conversions because you've had as is normal for this part of the cycle, you've had pretty wide spread between bid and ask on transactions and transactions drive as you know a lot of conversions.

我認為您開始看到開發環境方面的事情有所釋放，因為費率沒有大幅下降，但已經下降了一點，我認為人們可以看到一條通往更好的日子的道路在資本方面，我們實際上已經開始——圍繞所有權變更有更多的對話，我認為這支持了克里斯剛才所說的關於轉換的內容，因為你已經經歷了這部分週期的正常情況，你已經經歷了交易的出價和要價之間存在相當大的差距，而且交易驅動因素很多，因為您知道很多轉換。

And so we're starting to, I think, see a little bit of a thawing in bid-ask spreads which has led to more applications in the last 30 days or so on change of ownerships and things like that.

因此，我認為，我們開始看到買賣價差略有回落，這導致在過去 30 天左右的時間裡出現了更多關於所有權變更等事宜的申請。

We're starting to see a lot of more activity there which bodes well.

我們開始看到那裡有更多的活動，這是個好兆頭。

And then your first part, the fees per room, we're really not seeing any change.

然後你的第一部分，每個房間的費用，我們確實沒有看到任何變化。

I mean if you think about the complexion of what we're putting under construction and what we're delivering, it is still largely on an overall basis, the same mix.

我的意思是，如果你考慮我們正在建立的內容和我們正在交付的內容的複雜性，你會發現它在很大程度上仍然是整體基礎上的，相同的組合。

So we're not seeing dramatic changes in the mix.

因此，我們沒有看到組合發生巨大變化。

You're obviously seeing RevPAR growth over time.

您顯然會看到 RevPAR 隨著時間的推移而增長。

You're seeing mark to market on fees as contracts roll over.

隨著合約到期，您會看到費用按市價計價。

We continue to take fee price in terms of license fees a little bit and the vast majority of our development actually is in the brand where we get the highest fees.

我們繼續在許可費方面收取一點費用，我們的絕大多數開發實際上是在我們收取最高費用的品牌中。

And so when you put all that in the model, we're really not seeing a change in fees per room.

因此，當您將所有這些放入模型中時，我們實際上沒有看到每間客房的費用發生變化。

And in fact, it will grow over time.

事實上，它會隨著時間的推移而增長。

Carlo Santarelli, Deutsche Bank

卡洛桑塔雷利，德意志銀行

Just building on your point that you think kind of '25 looks a lot like '24.

只是根據你的觀點，你認為 '25 看起來很像 '24。

I would assume kind of RevPAR being the primary driver of that given that the group pace that you guys currently have, and I believe you said low double digits to low-teens for '25 and 2016 -- so sorry, '25 and 2026.

考慮到你們目前的群體節奏，我認為 RevPAR 是主要驅動因素，我相信你們說過 25 年和 2016 年的低兩位數到低十幾歲——很抱歉，25 年和 2026 年。

How do we interpret kind of the way you're thinking about leisure and business transient as we move into '25 based on kind of what we know today?

根據我們今天所了解的情況，當我們進入 25 世紀時，我們如何解釋您對休閒和商務短暫性的思考方式？

Yeah.

是的。

I would say, and I tried to cover it, but I'll click a little harder on it, in group, I think you're going to see a very balanced -- you're going to see the highest growth rate.

我想說，我試圖涵蓋它，但我會更加努力地點擊它，在團體中，我認為你會看到非常平衡的 - 你會看到最高的增長率。

I mean I don't have the number -- I mean we don't have a budget yet, but you're going to see comparable growth.

我的意思是我沒有這個數字——我的意思是我們還沒有預算，但你會看到類似的成長。

I mean you heard the numbers we're talking about for like third quarter, up 5% or 6%.

我的意思是你聽到了我們談論的第三季的數字，成長 5% 或 6%。

I think you're going to be looking at that kind of level of growth in the group segment if you look at the whole world.

我認為，如果你放眼整個世界，你就會看到集團部門的這種成長水準。

And then I think that will be pretty balanced, as I said between price and occupancy, between rate and occupancy.

然後我認為，正如我所說，在價格和入住率之間、在房價和入住率之間，這將是相當平衡的。

I think in leisure, again, if you're solving for something in the 2s and that's at 5, I think this as transient ends up being sort of it more in that range, again with a balance.

我再次認為，在閒暇時，如果你要解決 2 秒內的某個問題，而那是 5 秒，我認為這作為瞬態最終會更多地在這個範圍內，再次保持平衡。

But if group is in the mid-single digits, I think business transient is in the low single digits but higher than one.

但如果集團處於中個位數，我認為業務瞬態處於低個位數但高於 1。

I mean similar to this year, we're sort of trending it 2, low-2s, something like that.

我的意思是與今年類似，我們的趨勢是 2、low-2，類似的東西。

And then I think leisure, which again is I think I said this, maybe I didn't, it's still trending way over historical levels.

然後我想到休閒，我想我說過這個，也許我沒有，它的趨勢仍然超過歷史水平。

We don't think we'll go backwards.

我們認為我們不會倒退。

We don't think we're going backwards this year, but we think it's sort of flat.

我們認為今年不會出現倒退，但我們認為情況有些持平。

And so I would say my expectation and I already said this would be demand is flat, maybe even a little bit down as you continue to normalize the work environment and the like, but because you have pretty good pricing power and you still have inflationary pressures particularly here, but in a lot of parts of the world, we feel like we'll be able to push rate a little bit.

所以我想說的是我的預期，我已經說過，隨著工作環境等繼續正常化，需求將持平，甚至可能會有所下降，但因為你擁有相當好的定價能力，而且仍然面臨通膨壓力尤其是在這裡，但在世界許多地方，我們覺得我們能夠稍微提高利率。

And so I would say we think leisure again, it's early, right?

所以我想說，我們再次考慮休閒，現在還早，對嗎？

We don't -- I don't have a budget in front of me, but we've talked a lot about it.

我們沒有——我面前沒有預算，但我們已經討論了很多。

I think leisure is positive but not much positive.

我認為休閒是正面的，但積極性並不大。

So I mean so I would say it's like very, very modestly positive.

所以我的意思是，我會說這是非常非常積極的。

And when you put those three things together, that's really not that far off of sort of where we're ending up this year.

當你把這三件事放在一起時，這與我們今年的最終目標相去不遠。

I mean I think that's why I say, I think when you finish '25, at least sitting here today, it feels an awful lot like '24.

我的意思是，我認為這就是為什麼我說，我認為當你完成 25 年後，至少今天坐在這裡，感覺非常像 24。

David Katz, Jefferies.

大衛‧卡茨，傑弗里斯。

Chris, you mentioned earlier that you're getting an outsized and it's obvious amount of conversions.

克里斯，您之前提到過，您的轉換量非常大，而且轉換量非常明顯。

Can you provide just a little bit of insight on how you're doing that?

您能否提供一些關於您是如何做到這一點的見解？

Is that just good old-fashioned shoe leather, a new competition or whatever other euphemism or are there some specific drivers because we are obviously observing, keep money more carefully across the industry than usual, et cetera.

這只是好的老式鞋革，新的競爭還是其他委婉的說法，或者是否有一些特定的驅動因素，因為我們顯然正在觀察，在整個行業中比平常更謹慎地保管資金，等等。

Yeah.

是的。

I mean, listen, I'll -- Kevin may want to come over the top on this because he and his team are doing the shoe leather.

我的意思是，聽著，我會——凱文可能想在這件事上做得更好，因為他和他的團隊正在做鞋子皮革。

I do think it's partly shoe leather.

我確實認為它部分是鞋革。

I mean, listen, I think we're -- I say to our teams all the time like our philosophy in how we run the company is we're pretty scrappy, we're pretty gritty.

我的意思是，聽著，我認為我們——我一直對我們的團隊說，就像我們經營公司的理念一樣，我們非常鬥志旺盛，我們非常堅韌。

We don't take anything for granted.

我們不認為任何事情是理所當然的。

So we get out and hustle.

所以我們出去忙碌。

So our teams hustle.

所以我們的團隊很忙。

I don't know what everybody else is doing, but we're hustling.

我不知道其他人在做什麼，但我們正在努力。

We've built really good relationships.

我們已經建立了非常好的關係。

So a lot of this business, not all of it, particularly in Spark because they're bringing a bunch of new folks into the system, which are going to be hugely beneficial over time as we saw with Hampton decades ago.

所以很多這樣的業務，不是全部，特別是在Spark 中，因為他們將一群新人帶入系統，隨著時間的推移，這將帶來巨大的好處，就像我們幾十年前在漢普頓看到的那樣。

But we have really solid relationships where we've done a really good job with people and doing what they ultimately are looking for, which leads to what I think is really driving it, which is performance.

但我們擁有非常牢固的關係，我們與人們做得非常好，並做了他們最終想要的事情，這導致了我認為真正的推動力，那就是績效。

I mean you're signing up to these deals and not to be pedantic.

我的意思是你簽署這些協議並不是為了迂腐。

But these are at the short end, generally very short end, 10, but more likely, these are 20 plus year relationships that you're entering into with no real way out.

但這些都是短期的，通常是非常短暫的，10年，但更有可能的是，這些是你正在進入的20多年的關係，沒有真正的出路。

And so these people are investing billions of dollars when you aggregate all of this development, even all the conversions.

因此，當你匯總所有這些開發，甚至所有轉換時，這些人正在投資數十億美元。

And they want to have confidence that when they're signing up, they're going to make money, but they're signing up for a long time that they've got -- they got the right system that they're signing up for.

他們希望有信心，當他們簽約時，他們會賺錢，但他們簽了很長一段時間——他們擁有正確的系統，他們正在簽約為了。

And so the truth is our track record is really good.

事實上，我們的業績記錄非常好。

Our brands are performing really well.

我們的品牌表現非常好。

Our market share is the highest it's ever been.

我們的市場佔有率是有史以來最高的。

It's significantly higher than any of our competitors.

它明顯高於我們的任何競爭對手。

And so that doesn't mean we don't have to compete.

因此，這並不意味著我們不必競爭。

I know -- I say to the team all the time that it's cool.

我知道——我一直對團隊說這很酷。

Why don't we win every deal?

為什麼我們不能贏得每筆交易？

Why should we --why are we only winning half the deals even though we're whatever, 6% of the global market?

為什麼我們應該——為什麼我們只贏得了一半的交易，儘管我們佔全球市場的 6%？

And Kevin explained himself on that, but getting half the business is pretty darn good.

凱文對此進行了解釋，但獲得一半的業務真是太好了。

And I think it ultimately comes down to our ability over a long period of time to be able to deliver performance for owners because we can be witty, charming, scrappy gritty, (inaudible) We can be all the things we think we are or hope to be but, in the end, it's about performance.

我認為這最終取決於我們在很長一段時間內為業主提供績效的能力，因為我們可以機智、迷人、鬥志旺盛，（聽不清）我們可以成為我們認為或希望的一切但歸根結底，這與性能有關。

They're investing money in these assets or in this relationship with us to drive returns.

他們將資金投資於這些資產或與我們的關係以提高回報。

Robin Farley, UBS.

羅賓法利，瑞銀集團。

Chris, I wonder if you could talk a little bit about how your visibility on business transient and leisure transient kind of compares to what it would have been in 2019.

Chris，我想知道您是否可以談談您在商務短暫性和休閒短暫性方面的可見度與 2019 年相比如何。

In other words, do you feel like you have more visibility or less visibility today?

換句話說，你覺得你今天的知名度是更高還是更低？

And then if I could squeeze one in for Kevin, just on the comments about what drove better EBITDA than guide, I'd would love to hear about the non-RevPAR fees and then also I think there was a timing benefit there as well.

然後，如果我能為 Kevin 擠一擠，就關於什麼因素推動 EBITDA 比指南更好的評論，我很想听聽有關非 RevPAR 費用的信息，而且我認為這也有一個時間優勢。

Thanks.

謝謝。

I would say the answer is we don't have a tremendous amount of incremental visibility.

我想說的答案是我們沒有大量的增量可見性。

The place we obviously have the most visibility is in group, which is why we give you those statistics that that business is pretty darn sticky.

顯然，我們知名度最高的地方是群體，這就是為什麼我們向您提供這些業務非常黏性的統計數據。

We have found recently and over long spans of time, people have needs but they still have pent up needs.

我們最近和很長一段時間內發現，人們有需求，但仍有被壓抑的需求。

So we feel really good about that.

所以我們對此感覺非常好。

But leisure, leisure and transient, I mean leisure transient, business transient, our visibility is limited -- certainly limited to 60 or 90 days out.

但休閒，休閒和短暫，我的意思是休閒短暫，商務短暫，我們的知名度是有限的——當然僅限於60或90天。

But then anecdotally, particularly with business transient, just talking to all of our customers and which we do all the time, our sales teams, I do, others and senior management do, we survey them.

但有趣的是，特別是在業務瞬息萬變的情況下，只要與我們所有的客戶交談，我們一直這樣做，我們的銷售團隊，我這樣做，其他人和高級管理層都這樣做，我們對他們進行了調查。

We do have data that tells us what they're thinking.

我們確實有數據可以告訴我們他們的想法。

And that gives us a rationale for what I'm saying to you I think what will happen next year.

這給了我們一個理由來解釋我對你們說的話，我認為明年會發生什麼事。

But they haven't booked the business yet, like unlike groups where they booked it, they haven't booked it.

但他們還沒有預訂業務，就像他們預訂的團體不同，他們還沒有預訂。

And then leisure is where we have the least visibility into the future.

然後休閒是我們對未來最不了解的地方。

Now the reason I started my whole answer and my filibuster with consensus view was obviously not lost on you or anybody else.

現在，我開始我的整個回答以及我以共識觀點進行阻撓的原因顯然對你或其他任何人來說都沒有丟失。

Particularly in leisure and business transient, as it relates to how we think about next year, a lot of it so goes the economy to a degree, so goes those segments.

特別是在休閒和商務方面，因為它關係到我們對明年的看法，其中許多因素都會在某種程度上影響經濟，這些領域也是如此。

So that's why it always has to start with a view -- a consensus view of like, what the heck do we think can happen in the economy?

所以這就是為什麼它總是必須從一個觀點開始——一個共識觀點，例如我們認為經濟到底會發生什麼？

It's not that the group business is immune to it.

集團業務並非獨善其身。

It's just stickier.

只是更黏而已。

It's just -- it is not as immune to short term swings over time as the other segments.

只是，它不像其他細分市場那樣容易受到短期波動的影響。

So that's -- it's about what, I mean, have we gotten better or we -- do we have better listening posts with our customers than we might have had five years ago?

所以這就是——我的意思是，我們是否變得更好了，或者我們——我們與客戶的傾聽貼文是否比五年前更好了？

Yeah, I think so.

是的，我想是的。

I think we're better at understanding what's going on, but the reality in terms of booking visibility is about the same.

我認為我們更能理解正在發生的事情，但預訂可見性方面的現實情況大致相同。

Yeah.

是的。

And then on the -- Robin, on the non-RevPAR driven fees, we were -- clearly, we were pleased with the performance if RevPAR came in for all the reasons we talked about under our expectations.

然後，羅賓，關於非 RevPAR 驅動的費用，顯然，如果 RevPAR 出於我們在預期中討論的所有原因而進入，我們對業績感到滿意。

The non-RevPAR driven fees, if you think about performance in the credit card business, in our purchasing business, things like that was all sort of above algorithm if you will, above the overall rate of the business.

非RevPAR驅動的費用，如果你考慮信用卡業務、我們的採購業務的表現，如果你願意的話，類似的事情都是上面的演算法，高於業務的整體費率。

And then on timing, it was, about half the beat from the third quarter were timing items if you get behind it and so that's about -- all I'd say about that.

然後在計時方面，如果你落後的話，第三節的大約一半節拍都是計時項目，所以這就是我要說的全部。

Smedes Rose, Citi.

斯梅德斯·羅斯，花旗銀行。

I just wanted to ask, you talked a lot about just group going into next year and it has been and continues to be, it looks like kind of a silver lining in the space.

我只是想問，你談論了很多關於明年的團隊的事情，它一直並且繼續如此，它看起來像是這個領域的一線希望。

And I was just wondering when you look at what you're seeing now, for '25 group, I guess particularly in the US, is there -- is it driven more by incremental like citywide conventions?

我只是想知道，當你看看你現在所看到的情況時，對於25 世紀的群體，我想特別是在美國，是否存在——它更多地是由全市範圍的會議等增量推動的？

Is it more smaller groups that I think have been doing well for a while?

我認為一段時間以來表現良好的是否是更小的團體？

Is there anything just kind of in particular that you could call out that's helping to drive that continued strength there?

有什麼特別的事情可以幫助推動那裡的持續成長嗎？

I'd say it's a little bit of everything.

我想說的是，一切都只是一點點。

If you think about what's going on.

如果你想想發生了什麼事。

Certainly, the big citywides are picking up and not surprisingly, they just take that, and we've been saying this on every call, it just takes longer in gestation to get those -- that business going because they book multiple years in advance, and they spend millions of dollars planning these events.

當然，大城市正在崛起，毫不奇怪，他們只是接受了這一點，我們在每次電話中都這麼說，只是需要更長的醞釀時間才能獲得這些——這項業務正在進行，因為他們提前多年預訂，他們花費數百萬美元來策劃這些活動。

And they went for two or three years unwilling and/or unable to do that.

他們花了兩三年的時間不願意和/或無法做到這一點。

And so we're certainly seeing wind in our sales from that, but we're also seeing really good social group business.

因此，我們當然看到了我們的銷售成長，但我們也看到了非常好的社交團體業務。

I mean people still want to get out and see people.

我的意思是人們仍然想出去見見別人。

I mean I -- that that is still a thing.

我的意思是，這仍然是一件事。

And then I'd say corporate meetings are -- we're seeing really terrific demand.

然後我想說的是，我們看到公司會議的需求非常大。

I mean even though the workplace is sort of normalizing somewhat, it is not going back to what it was.

我的意思是，儘管工作場所在某種程度上已經正常化，但它不會回到原來的狀態。

And the reality is a lot of people have needs and that they're making -- sort of making up for a time when they were more remote.

現實是，很多人都有需求，他們正在創造需求——某種程度上是為了彌補他們更偏遠的一段時間。

They need to do meetings for innovation and culture building and the like.

他們需要召開創新和文化建設等會議。

And a lot of people have sort of changed pretty permanently us included by the way.

很多人都發生了永久性的改變，順便說一句，我們也包括在內。

Our work environment in a way where we take less space because people are more mobile, and it requires them needing space outside of their own office footprint more than historically they have.

我們的工作環境佔用的空間更少，因為人們的流動性更強，這要求他們比以往更多地需要自己辦公室以外的空間。

And so that's a nice little wind in our sale as well.

所以這對我們的銷售來說也是一股不錯的小風。

So that's a long way of saying it's broad-based.

因此，從長遠來看，它具有廣泛的基礎。

I mean there's -- it's not one thing driving it.

我的意思是，驅動它的不是一件事。

Lizzie Dove, Goldman Sachs.

莉齊·多夫，高盛。

I wanted to go back to the unit growth piece, which is obviously very strong.

我想回到單位成長部分，這顯然非常強大。

I believe the majority of the pipeline is coming from international just about.

我相信大部分管道都來自國際。

So love a bit of a refresh of just where you see the key opportunities, the key markets driving that international expansion, maybe a refresh on the China piece as well with the stimulus.

因此，喜歡對關鍵機會、推動國際擴張的關鍵市場進行一些刷新，也許對中國部分以及刺激措施進行刷新。

And just is there any way that you kind of have to adapt your portfolio as you take those brands to different markets?

當您將這些品牌推向不同的市場時，是否需要調整您的產品組合？

Yeah.

是的。

So there's -- I mean I guess the and Lizzie, thanks for the question, is the easy part is, yeah, you do have to adapt your brands and your prototypes and your room sizes and things like that to markets around the world.

所以，我的意思是，我想Lizzie，謝謝你的問題，最簡單的部分是，是的，你必須調整你的品牌、你的原型、你的房間大小以及類似的東西，以適應世界各地的市場。

They still maintain their essence and their positioning within the brand ladder and their swimlanes and things like that.

他們仍然保持自己的本質和在品牌階梯中的定位以及泳道等。

But you're obviously adapting them around the world.

但顯然你正在世界各地調整它們。

I think that as sort of you think about the complexity of the pipeline, it's about, it's a little over half, call it 55%-or-so outside the US, the stuff that's under construction just given the dynamics of some of the things that are going on around the world limit our limited service business in China, and things like that.

我認為，當你考慮管道的複雜性時，它大約是，它超過一半，在美國以外的地方稱之為 55% 左右，考慮到一些事物的動態，正在建設中的東西世界各地正在發生的事情限制了我們在中國的有限服務業務，等等。

It's about 80% of what's under construction is outside the US.

約 80% 的興建工程位於美國境外。

Deliveries this year are going to be sort of more like the pipeline.

今年的交付將更像是管道。

Sort of think about it as mid-40%s in the US and 55%-or-so outside the US.

可以將其視為美國 40% 左右的人，以及美國以外地區 55% 左右的人。

I think that China business is doing great.

我認為中國業務做得很好。

We think both, approval, starts, I'm jumping around a little bit but sorry, it was a broad question.

我們認為，批准，開始，我有點跳來跳去，但抱歉，這是一個廣泛的問題。

Our approval, starts and opens we think will all be up in China this year.

我們認為今年我們的批准、啟動和開放都將在中國完成。

We're -- even though there's a macro slowdown in China and you read a lot of headlines about real estate bubbles and the like in China, what's going on a lot in China is they're trying to find different uses for some of these buildings and some of the real estate that's been developed.

我們——儘管中國宏觀經濟放緩，而且你讀到了很多關於中國房地產泡沫之類的頭條新聞，但中國正在發生的很多事情是，他們正在試圖為其中一些找到不同的用途建築物和一些已開發的房地產。

And our business, particularly the limited-service part of our business, both in our master limited partnerships and in our Hilton Garden Inn business is able to take advantage of a lot of the adaptive reuse of those businesses -- of those pieces of real estate.

我們的業務，特別是我們業務的有限服務部分，無論是在我們的主有限合夥企業還是在我們的希爾頓花園酒店業務中，都能夠充分利用這些業務的大量適應性再利用——這些房地產。

So and I think when you take a step back from it though, I know you're relatively new to the coverage, but you've gone through the materials and we outlined in our Investor day is, kind of over the time period that we gave you for that, we think call it half of the NUG 3 to 3.5 points will be in the Americas, 1 point or so will be in EMEA and 2 points will be in APAC.

因此，我認為，當您退後一步時，我知道您對報道相對較新，但您已經閱讀了這些材料，我們在投資者日中概述了，在我們的時間段內為此，我們認為NUG 3 至3.5 點的一半將在美洲，1 點左右將在歐洲、中東和非洲，2 點將在亞太地區。

And that'll move around a little bit year to year.

而且每年都會有一點變化。

But generally speaking, those will be the trends and then you'll see in the Western world more conversions, in the developed world, more new builds, in Asia, we're shifting our business to APAC outside of China.

但總的來說，這些將成為趨勢，然後你會在西方世界看到更多的轉變，在已開發國家，更多的新建，在亞洲，我們正在將業務轉移到中國以外的亞太地區。

So a lot of growth opportunities there, a lot of growth opportunities in India, a lot of growth opportunities in the Middle East.

因此那裡有很多成長機會，印度有很多成長機會，中東有很多成長機會。

So we're really seeing the benefit of a diversified set of products that we can deploy and when certain parts of the world are strong, we can deploy in those parts of the world.

因此，我們確實看到了我們可以部署的多元化產品的好處，當世界某些地區表現強勁時，我們可以在世界這些地區部署。

When certain parts slow down, diversification is a beautiful thing.

當某些部分放緩時，多元化是一件美好的事情。

And we're continued -- we're continuing to grow through it.

我們將繼續——我們將透過它繼續成長。

Brandt Montour, Barclays.

布蘭特·蒙圖爾，巴克萊銀行。

Most of my questions have been asked and answered.

我的大部分問題都已被提出並得到解答。

I'm curious on SLH.

我對SLH很好奇。

I know it's relatively new but that's a big chunk of luxury hotels in your system, on the website, people can earn and burn their points.

我知道它相對較新，但這是您系統中豪華酒店的很大一部分，在網站上，人們可以賺取和燃燒他們的積分。

They're curious how the early traction has been if you've done anything sort of out of the norm in terms of marketing those hotels to loyalty members and how you're feeling about the start there?

他們很好奇，如果您在向忠誠會員行銷這些酒店方面做了一些不尋常的事情，那麼早期的吸引力如何？

Yeah.

是的。

I mean you're right, Brandt.

我的意思是你是對的，布蘭特。

It is super early but in the sense that they just went in sort of the middle end of the summer and a lot of those properties are resorts in very unique locations that were booked way ahead of time.

現在還很早，但從某種意義上說，他們只是在夏末才去的，而且其中許多房產都是位於非常獨特的位置的度假村，而且是提前預訂的。

So there's only so much data we have just given the time of the year it came in.

所以我們剛剛給的數據是一年中的時間。

But the data that we do have is super good, meaning that our customers are engaging with it.

但我們現有的數據非常好，這意味著我們的客戶正在參與其中。

They're looking at the availability of these properties.

他們正在研究這些房產的可用性。

Now many of them this summer weren't available because they had already been booked given when they came in the system.

現在，今年夏天他們中的許多人無法預訂，因為他們在進入系統時就已經被預訂了。

They are -- where they did utilize it, they utilized it in a very healthy way for redemptions, which is exactly sort of the behavior set that we're looking for.

他們確實利用了它，他們以一種非常健康的方式利用它來進行贖回，這正是我們正在尋找的行為集合。

And so I'd say obviously a long way to go, but we feel very good about it.

所以我想說顯然還有很長的路要走，但我們對此感覺很好。

The ownership community in SLH feels very good about the start of the relationship.

SLH 的所有者社群對這種關係的開始感到非常滿意。

And I think as we get into the -- get a little bit of time, a quarter or two and then certainly get into the spring and summer of next year, I think you'll see some real uptick.

我認為，當我們進入——花一點時間，一兩個季度，然後肯定進入明年的春季和夏季，我認為你會看到一些真正的上升。

But you go and like if you go on our app, I happen to do it and I was in Italy and Tuscany to meet some friends where we have a few hotels, just go on the app and like hotels nearby me and we went from having like 3 hotels to like 40 hotels.

但是如果你去我們的應用程序，我碰巧這樣做了，我在意大利和托斯卡納見了一些朋友，那裡我們有幾家酒店，只要去應用程序，喜歡我附近的酒店，我們就從喜歡3 家飯店到喜歡40 家飯店。

So and many of them are really small and very unique.

因此，其中許多都非常小而且非常獨特。

But that's exactly what, for a leisure -- high end leisure customer they're looking for.

但這正是他們所尋找的休閒高端休閒客戶。

And so it really gives us significant enhancement in terms of shots on goal for people to book and importantly for people to be able to dream that are road warriors and have a place to realize those dreams.

因此，它確實為我們帶來了顯著的提高，讓人們可以預訂射門次數，更重要的是，讓人們能夠夢想成為公路戰士，並有一個地方實現這些夢想。

Michael Bellisario from Baird.

來自貝爾德的邁克爾貝利薩裡奧。

Chris, you sort of alluded to it but just wanted to dig into RevPAR index and pipeline share a little bit more.

克里斯，您有點提到了這一點，但只是想深入了解 RevPAR 指數和頻道份額。

Is it fair to assume that in a slower RevPAR backdrop, that's maybe actually better for your business, at least on a relative basis?

假設在每間可用收入較慢的背景下，這實際上可能對您的業務更好（至少相對而言），是否公平？

And then any similar similarities or differences that you see today compared to 2018, 2019 when RevPAR was last and kind of stuck in first gear?

那麼，與 2018 年和 2019 年（當時 RevPAR 處於最後狀態且停留在第一檔）相比，您今天看到的任何相似之處或差異？

Yeah.

是的。

I mean it's interesting.

我的意思是這很有趣。

I said earlier, so I don't want to contradict myself that we obviously always like to see RevPAR higher.

我之前說過，所以我不想自相矛盾，我們顯然總是希望看到 RevPAR 更高。

And so I will state again, I'd always like to see it higher.

所以我要再次聲明，我總是希望看到它更高。

But having said that, there are and then you alluded to it in the approach to the question, there are benefits of the environment we're in and we saw those benefits going back to that time where typically, we are able to deliver if we do our jobs better share in terms of performance on our existing assets and we take a in more difficult environments.

但話雖如此，然後你在解決問題的方法中提到了這一點，我們所處的環境有很多好處，我們看到這些好處可以追溯到那個時候，通常情況下，如果我們更好地完成我們的工作，分享我們現有資產的績效，並適應更困難的環境。

Environments where financing is less available, we end up disproportionately getting more conversions and more of what is available for new construction because our brands are just more financeable.

在融資較少的環境中，我們最終會不成比例地獲得更多轉換和更多可用於新建築的資源，因為我們的品牌更容易融資。

And so that is certainly what we've been experiencing.

這肯定是我們一直在經歷的事情。

If you look at the numbers across the board on development, whether you break it apart on new construction or conversions, you look at market share numbers which continue, I mean they're very high.

如果你看一下全面的開發數據，無論是新建還是改建，你都會看到持續的市場份額數字，我的意思是它們非常高。

So getting them -- they continue to grow, we've grown market share every single year in the 8 -- almost going on 18 years, I've been here.

因此，讓他們——他們繼續成長，我們的市場份額在過去 8 年裡每年都在增長——幾乎持續了 18 年，我一直在這裡。

So the higher you go, the harder it gets, but we're super focused on that.

所以你走得越高，就越難，但我們非常注意這一點。

So I'm not giving you a specific answer because there isn't one, but this environment is, is not -- has not -- is not terrible for us in that way.

所以我不會給你一個具體的答案，因為沒有一個答案，但這個環境過去、現在、現在對我們來說並不可怕。

And the really nice thing is I think we demonstrated in the third quarter and we'll demonstrate for the full year and I think we'll demonstrate again next year and the year after is, the model is really resilient that even, I mean think about it, even in the environment we're in where we're going to be in the 2s on same-store growth, we're going to deliver a circa of 10% EBITDA growth and higher than that and EPS and free cash flow.

真正好的事情是，我認為我們在第三季度進行了演示，我們將在全年進行演示，我認為我們將在明年和後年再次演示，該模型確實具有彈性，甚至，我的意思是認為對此，即使在我們所處的同店增長將達到2 % 的環境下，我們也將實現約10% 的EBITDA 增長，並且高於這個水平，每股收益和自由現金流也將高於這一水平。

That doesn't -- I mean that doesn't feel so bad.

這並不——我的意思是那感覺並沒有那麼糟。

Imagine what could be done in even better environment from a same-store point of view.

想像一下，從同店的角度來看，在更好的環境中可以做些什麼。

So that's not, as I said, I know I'm not answering it specifically, but these conditions are, we feel like whatever, I guess I'd finalize it by saying we can't determine the macro, what we can do always is outperform competition.

所以，正如我所說，我知道我沒有具體回答這個問題，但這些條件是，我們覺得無論如何，我想我會通過說我們無法確定宏觀，我們總是可以做什麼來最終確定它超越競爭對手。

And so we feel good about in this environment, our ability to do that.

因此，我們對在這種環境下的能力感到滿意。

We feel good about that in our job as in every environment to do that.

我們對自己的工作以及在任何環境中都能做到這一點感到滿意。

But we, yeah, and we will, but we feel we're not -- this is not a terrible environment in terms of our ability to deliver.

但我們，是的，我們會的，但我們覺得我們不會——就我們的交付能力而言，這並不是一個糟糕的環境。

Meredith Jensen from HSBC.

來自匯豐銀行的梅雷迪思·詹森。

I was wondering if you could speak a little bit about the occupancy and rate sort of offset.

我想知道您是否可以談談入住率和費率的抵消情況。

I know in the past, you've spoken quite a bit about pushing rate and I'm wondering how that conversation with franchisees and hotels have gone shifted over the past few months.

我知道過去您已經談過很多關於提高價格的問題，我想知道在過去幾個月與特許經營商和酒店的對話發生了怎樣的變化。

It hasn't really shifted.

它並沒有真正改變。

I mean obviously, inflation is down broadly in the US because it's our biggest market and we're here, sitting here in the US.

我的意思是，顯然，美國的通膨率普遍下降，因為這是我們最大的市場，而我們就在美國。

And inflation is not running 8% to 10%.

而且通貨膨脹率也沒有達到 8% 到 10%。

But it's still running for 4-plus against the target of 2%, which I think personally will be a long time coming just because of the underlying strength in the broader economy.

但相對於 2% 的目標，它仍然運行在 4 以上，我個人認為這將需要很長時間才能實現，只是因為更廣泛的經濟的潛在實力。

And one thing we didn't talk about yet is the basic fiscal spending between CHIPS and inflation reduction and infrastructure.

我們還沒有討論的一件事是 CHIPS 與降低通膨和基礎設施之間的基本財政支出。

You put all that stuff together, forget the private sector, there's a huge amount of public sector spending going on.

你把所有這些東西放在一起，忘記私營部門，公共部門正在進行大量支出。

And I think all of that sort of underpins growth in non-residential fixed investment which drives a lot of demand in our business, which I think continues to give us a decent amount of rate integrity.

我認為所有這些都支撐了非住宅固定投資的成長，這推動了我們業務的大量需求，我認為這將繼續為我們帶來相當大的利率完整性。

And so our expectation is while that isn't -- is moderating from the hypercharge levels that you saw generally of inflation across a lot of sectors and we expect the same thing in ours, we still expect that there's a decent amount of pricing pressure.

因此，我們的預期是，雖然這不是——從你普遍看到的許多行業的通膨過高水平來看，我們預計我們的情況也會如此，但我們仍然預計會有相當大的定價壓力。

And so as we think about, but we have very sophisticated revenue management models that it's not that Chris Nassetta with his hand on the button deciding the rate of every room every night thankfully.

正如我們所想，我們有非常複雜的收入管理模型，慶幸的是，這並不是克里斯·納塞塔用手按著按鈕來決定每個房間每晚的房價。

But we have very sophisticated systems, but those systems and all of our science -- data scientists here at Hilton still believe that given those conditions, in most segments at most times there is good pricing integrity but the one area that I talked about where there's probably less by nature if you think demand might be flat or going down a little bit as leisure normalizes, particularly on weekends.

但我們擁有非常複雜的系統，但這些系統和我們所有的科學——希爾頓的數據科學家仍然相信，考慮到這些條件，在大多數情況下，大多數細分市場都存在良好的定價完整性，但我談到的一個領域是如果您認為隨著休閒的正常化，特別是在週末，需求可能會持平或略有下降，那麼本質上可能會減少。

There may be a little bit less pressure there.

那裡的壓力可能會小一些。

But broadly, as I said, Meredith, I think when we finish this year and next, I think leisure rates will be up, not a lot, but I think leisure rates will be up just because of the underlying macro conditions.

但總的來說，正如我所說，梅雷迪思，我認為當我們今年和明年結束時，我認為休閒率將會上升，但不會很多，但我認為休閒率將會上升，只是因為潛在的宏觀條件。

I don't know if that answered it, but the short answer is not -- nothing material that I -- that we see that's different in the last few months certainly.

我不知道這是否能回答這個問題，但簡短的回答是——我認為這沒什麼重要的——我們看到過去幾個月確實有所不同。

Chad Beynon, Macquarie.

查德貝農，麥格理。

Just a quick one continuing on development, the guide for key money or contract acquisition cost at the beginning of the year [$250 million] to [$300 million] and that came down this quarter.

只是一個持續開發的快速指南，年初的關鍵資金或合約採購成本指南 [2.5 億美元] 到 [3 億美元]，本季有所下降。

Obviously, we only have two months left in the year.

顯然，今年只剩下兩個月了。

So you have a good sense of where things are from a key money standpoint.

因此，從關鍵資金的角度來看，您對事情的進展有很好的了解。

Kevin, I know this is something you guys highlighted at the Investor Day but is this more of just a delay to '25 or is this just more progress in your goal to reduce key money as a percentage of NUG?

凱文，我知道這是你們在投資者日強調的事情，但這只是推遲到 25 年還是只是在你們減少關鍵資金佔 NUG 百分比的目標方面取得了更大進展？

Yeah, sure.

是的，當然。

I mean look, I think key money in terms of percentage of NUG and the more strategic bid, no change in our approach.

我的意思是，我認為 NUG 百分比和更具策略性的出價方面的關鍵資金，我們的方法沒有改變。

I mean we still use key money on less than 10% of our deals.

我的意思是，我們仍然在不到 10% 的交易中使用禮金。

We use them when we have to when it gets competitive, but 90%-plus of the deals don't have anything associated with them.

當競爭激烈時，我們會在必要時使用它們，但 90% 以上的交易與它們沒有任何關聯。

It's just a little bit of timing, right?

這只是一點點時機，對吧？

We're getting closer to the end of the year.

我們已經接近年底了。

We have more visibility into what we think is going to happen.

我們對我們認為將要發生的事情有了更多的了解。

A little bit of a couple projects that we have in the works that we think are more likely to happen next year.

我們正在進行一些項目，我們認為明年更有可能發生。

And if you think about last year was a bit heavier year because of some strategic projects.

如果你想想去年因為一些策略項目而變得更加沉重的一年。

This year, it will be a little bit lighter, I think.

我想今年會輕一些。

Going forward, if you think about next year, probably somewhere in between last year and this year, but really no change in strategy.

展望未來，如果你考慮明年，可能會介於去年和今年之間，但策略上確實沒有改變。

Patrick Scholes, Truist Securities.

帕特里克·斯科爾斯 (Patrick Scholes)，Truist 證券公司。

Kevin, a question for you.

凱文，問你一個問題。

What are your ROI targets for brand specifically developing them internally versus buying a brand?

與購買品牌相比，專門在內部開髮品牌的投資報酬率目標是多少？

And then related to that, I mean these recent, I call them tuck in brand acquisitions, are these initially accretive to earnings or if not, how long does it take for them to be accretive?

與此相關的是，我的意思是最近的這些，我稱之為品牌收購，這些最初是否會增加收入，或者如果沒有，它們需要多長時間才能增加？

No.

不。

I think, look, it's -- that's a lot there, Patrick and we've talked about this a lot.

我想，看，有很多，派崔克，我們已經談了很多。

I think when you think about we haven't done a lot of acquisitions.

我想當你想到我們並沒有進行很多收購時。

So if you think about broadly, you alluded to sort of buy versus build, obviously, the ROI is extreme -- near infinite when we build these brands and build them over time organically into multi billion-dollar businesses.

因此，如果你從廣泛的角度思考，你提到了購買與構建，顯然，當我們建立這些品牌並隨著時間的推移將它們有機地打造為數十億美元的業務時，投資回報率是極端的——接近無限。

It's sort of you do a buy versus build analysis, but it almost always suggests build from a pure ROI perspective.

這有點像你進行購買與構建分析，但它幾乎總是建議從純粹的投資回報率角度進行構建。

In the last couple of deals we've done, they've been basically accretive out of the box, right?

在我們最近完成的幾筆交易中，它們基本上都是開箱即用的，對嗎？

I think we didn't -- we disclosed that on Graduate, if you'll recall from the press release, so that's accretive out of the box.

我想我們沒有——我們在《畢業生》上披露了這一點，如果你還記得新聞稿的話，所以這是開箱即用的。

So on both of these things, they were very specific to things we wanted to tuck in strategically.

因此，在這兩件事上，它們對於我們想要策略性地納入的事情來說都是非常具體的。

We're able to take advantage of a little bit of distress in the environment to buy them really well and they were accretive right away, as I said.

正如我所說，我們能夠利用環境中的一點困難來購買它們，並且它們立即增值。

And ladies and gentlemen, this now concludes our question and answer session.

女士們、先生們，我們的問答環節現在結束了。

I would like to turn the conference back over to Chris Nassetta for any additional or closing remarks.

我想將會議轉回克里斯·納塞塔（Chris Nassetta）以發表任何補充或結束語。

Yeah.

是的。

Chad, thanks and to everybody that joined, thank you for the time.

查德，感謝所有加入的人，感謝您抽出寶貴的時間。

Obviously, a lot is going on in the world, but we're really happy with how the third quarter worked out.

顯然，世界上發生了很多事情，但我們對第三季的表現非常滿意。

We feel good about the fourth and the full year and as we've talked about quite a bit today, feel good about the setup for 2025.

我們對第四年和全年感覺良好，正如我們今天談論的許多，對 2025 年的安排感覺良好。

We'll look forward to catching up with you after the year is out and be a little bit more specific on 2025 at that point.

我們期待在今年結束後與您聯繫，屆時對 2025 年進行更具體的介紹。

And I hope everybody has a good end of the year and great holiday season when you get to it.

我希望每個人都能度過一個美好的年末和美好的假期。

It's funny to hear myself say that, but it's that time of year.

聽到自己這麼說很有趣，但現在是一年中的這個時候。

Anyway, thanks again for the time today.

不管怎樣，再次感謝您今天抽出時間。

And thank you, sir.

謝謝您，先生。

The conference has now concluded.

會議現已結束。

Thank you for attending today's presentation.

感謝您參加今天的演講。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。